Defense Archives
June 29, 2008
I just saw the highlight of Matt Treanor's double play last night. The ball was bunted, and Matt grabbed it out of the air and threw to second for the double play. Seems like a good time to recall this Treanor story.
The Diamondbacks get a two-run homer from Stephen Drew to take a 2-0 lead over the Marlins in the third.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM
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June 26, 2008
Joe Christensen describes the fielding drill that helped Alexi Casilla make a spectacular play Wednesday night. It's one of the little things Ron Gardenhire works on to make the team better.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM
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June 24, 2008
Pizza Cutter is doing some very good work on defense at MVN. I like the way he's trying to separate the ability to get to a ball from the ability to field the ball.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 PM
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June 01, 2008
Jim Leyland adds another wrinkle to the Tigers defense. He's going to use Carlos Guillen in leftfield sometimes to get Inge games at third base:
Manager Jim Leyland said Saturday that Guillen probably will start in left field today against the Mariners.
Leyland had said after Friday night's game that he might use Guillen in left at least occasionally.
"This is how I can get (Guillen) in the lineup if I want to play (Brandon) Inge at third," Leyland said after Friday night's game.
To his credit, Guillen is game. He was signed as an outfielder but moved to the infield when he started in pro ball.
"I'm not afraid to play left," Guillen said. "You have to have confidence to play this game. You play this game with passion."
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM
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May 29, 2008
Ryan Langerhans is back with the Nationals and just made a possible game saving catch in San Diego. With the score tied at two in the bottom of the eighth, Kevin Kouzmanoff launches one to the stand in leftfield. Ryan leaped, got his glove over the railing, and pulled the ball back in to preserve the tie. He's also singled and driven in a run.
Update: The catch is for naught as Jody Gerut hits a three-run homer down the rightfield line for a 5-2 lead.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM
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May 27, 2008
Nick Cafardo makes Dustin Pedroia the center of his piece on the Red Sox 5-3 win over the Mariners Monday night. He notes a defensive play in the third as a key moment in the game:
Take the play he made in the third inning of last night's 5-3 win over the Mariners: runners at first and second, two outs, when Jose Lopez hit a ball that for all intents and purposes should have gone through into right field for a run-producing hit. Yet Pedroia, who was positioned more toward second base, got a good jump on the ball and made a diving play to the first base side to retire Lopez and keep Bartolo Colon out of peril.
(Actually, there were runners at first and third.)
I saw the play last night and watched it again this morning. It was a nice play by Dustin, the kind that separates a good fielder from a bad one. It's an easy out if the fielder is positioned differently. Pedroia showed on that play what we normally consider range, the ability to cover a lot of ground to get to a ball.
When I run the Probabalistic Model of Range, I define range as the ability to turn a ball into an out. Positioning plays a large role in that. One would expect the players that can make up for being out of position on a ball with their ability to cover ground will tend to score higher in the rankings. Maybe when we get Joe Maddon's GPS system we'll know for sure.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM
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May 26, 2008
I like the way Joe Maddon thinks about defense.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM
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May 19, 2008
NESN is reporting that Varitek is the first catcher to receive four no hitters. They left Torborg off their graphic as catchers who caught three. Can anyone think of anyone else who caught four?
Add to that Schilling's near no-hitter last season, and Varitek's had quite the low-hit career.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM
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May 18, 2008
Hank Blalock volunteered to move to first base when he comes off the disabled list:
"It's his decision," Texas manager Ron Washington said. "He said he had looked at the team and thought he could help the squad more at first. This is Hank just being a very intelligent baseball man,"
Blalock has played 686 career games at third base and none at first. Washington was giving Blalock some pointers during infield practice Sunday.
The Rangers are sending Blalock to extended spring training in Arizona on Monday. Washington said Blalock will probably stay in Arizona until he comes off the disabled list -- which may be as early as Friday.
"It's a new position for me and I'm not sure how I'll do," Blalock said. "I wouldn't have initiated it if it wasn't something I was excited about."
Blalock was hitting better this season before he tore the hamstring. Rangers this season have gotten a .602 OPS out of their first basemen coming into Sunday's games.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM
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May 16, 2008
You don't see this too often. Kuroda strikes out Aybar, but the pitch is not caught cleanly. With a man on second and two out, Aybar starts running to first. The catcher, Bennett, throws the ball over the head of the first baseman down the leftfield line. Kotchman scores from second, and Aybar turns on the afterburner and reaches third base. A strikeout triple! The Angels take a 1-0 lead in the fourth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM
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May 14, 2008
Richard Durrett made the case this morning in the Dallas Morning News that the Rangers did what they needed to change themselves for the better, including defense:
The club that bobbled balls, missed cut-off men, made errant throws and beat itself to start the season has morphed into one that is putting together an impressive highlight reel of defensive plays, adding four more to the collection Tuesday.
And it isn't just the defense. These Rangers are manufacturing runs, running the bases smartly, delivering key hits, and, most important, pitching well. Consequently, they are winning games.
That's true, but everyonce in a while the wind shifts back to the old ways. A bobbled ground ball and a mis-read line drive lead to two innings in the seventh inning today, giving the Mariners a 3-2 lead. Scott Feldman pitched very well today, but the two unearned runs mean he's now in line for a loss.
Update: Hamilton makes up for the misplayed line drive with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game at three.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM
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May 12, 2008
With men on first and third and two out in the top of the ninth, Franklin Gutierrez came up with the second great dive of the game. Mench hit a high liner into right center. It looked like it would drop to plate the first run of the game, but it hung up just long enough for Franklin to get over and make the diving catch. Two batters earlier, with a man on second, Rios hit a hard line drive snared by Victor Martinez at first. Lee completes nine scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 0.67. Now the Indians need to plate a run to get him a win.
Marcum is out of the game after eight innings. Ryan tries to preserve the tie.
Update: Ryan gets two popups as he retires the side in order. The game will be decided in extra innings. The Indians still have just two hits.
Update: Stewart breaks the scoreless tie in the tenth, and Hill follows with a two-run single to give Toronto a 3-0 lead.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM
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Andrew Marshall writes:
Asdrubal Cabrera just turned an unassisted triple play behind Cliff Lee. This offense (Toronto) has become comically bad.
The Indians, of course, have the only unassisted triple play in World Series history, way back in 1920. This evening, the runners were going, Overbay hit a line drive that Asdrubal caught on a dive. The runners had already advanced a base, so Cabrera just had to tag the base and the runner from first to complete the TP. The game remains scoreless in the top of the sixth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM
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May 04, 2008
It must be tough to see pop ups in foul area on the third base side in Arizona. Mark Reynolds over-ran a ball near the stands earlier, and just now Schneider called off Wright, then lost the ball. The Mets lead 2-1 in the bottom of the fifth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:44 PM
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April 30, 2008
My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM
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April 22, 2008
Jim Leyland decided to switch Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen defensively. So now Miguel's followed the full Albert Pujols path.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM
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There was plenty of praise for Chase Utley's glove last night:
With the bases loaded and one out and the Phillies trailing 3-0, second baseman Chase Utley launched himself parallel to the infield dirt and somehow managed to snag Clint Barmes' hard-hit chopper that seemed destined for centerfield. After landing flat on his torso, he raised his glove and shoveled the ball to shortstop Eric Bruntlett, who made a quick throw to first base for an inning-ending doubleplay.
"After the game, I told him 'Thank you,' " said righthander Kyle Kendrick, who pitched five innings and gave up all five Rockies runs on home runs by Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.
Utley saved two runs, for sure.
Who knows how many may have followed?
"Bases loaded, it kind of slowed them down a little bit," Utley said. "A base hit there obviously would have hurt a lot."
Power and defense at second base is a rare combination. Morgan and Sandberg are the only two in my lifetime who did both extremely well. Utley was among the best second baseman in range as measured by PMR last season.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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April 21, 2008
The Tigers broadcast pointed out something about the defensive alignment against Magglio Ordonez. The first baseman is playing way off the line, in what would usually be the hole between second and first. According to them, Ordonez hit a good many balls there last season, and few down the first base line. It's a good defensive adjustment so far, as they've kept Magglio's average down to .264.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM
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April 17, 2008
When I was in college, my roommates and I used to kid that the threshold for an error was set too low. Our opinion was that if the greatest fielder at the position would have made the play, then it should go as an error.
With Kyle Lohse at the plate and the bases loaded, he slapped a ball to the left of Counsell at third. Counsell was in, he dove, but the ball went under his glove for a two-run single. Since Graig Nettles would have not only snagged the ball, but turned it into a double play, Counsell should really get an E5.. :-)
By the way, I love Brian Barton's socks. He's mixed a 50s uniform with a wild hairdo. The contrast looks great.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM
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April 15, 2008
Alexei Ramirez starts in centerfield for the White Sox today and makes a spectacular throw to get Emil Brown. Brown hit a ball into the gap in right-center. Ramirez got to the hit in a hurry, grabbed the ball spun and threw a strike to second base without setting himself. Brown was out by a mile. Alexei showed off everything on that play; speed, soft hands, and an accurate and powerful arm. Look for that play on Web Gems tonight.
The game is scoreless in the second.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:28 PM
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April 14, 2008
I don't think of Victor Martinez as a defensive catcher, but he just made a great play on Coco Crisp. Crisp laid a bunt down the third base line that died at the grass cut out in front of the plate. Martinez sprang like a cat on the ball threw off balance and got Crisp at first. He showed quickness and a strong, accurate arm on that play.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM
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April 10, 2008
Soccer Dad notes the Orioles posted a .772 DER in their first seven games. They're like a black hole for balls in play.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 AM
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April 04, 2008
Orlando Cabrera made a rare poor play for the White Sox. With a man on first, he ranged to his right for a ground ball off the bat of Polanco. Cabrera got there in time, but the ball skipped under his glove. He appeared to be looking for a higher bounce. The official scorer gave Polanco a hit, and a double play cleared the extra runner. The White Sox and Tigers are tied at five in the top of the fifth. Carlos Quentin hit his first home run for the pale hose.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:33 PM
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Sox Machine notes the biggest threat to Jerry Owens's health after he returns to the White Sox.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM
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April 03, 2008
The Soxaholix makes Kevin Youkilis the center of water cooler talk today for passing Steve Garvey for errorless games at first base. Keep in mind, however, that first basemen don't make a lot of errors in general. As for range, Kevin is a bit above average.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:29 PM
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April 01, 2008
Kevin Youkilis can tie a fielding record tonight.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 PM
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March 25, 2008
Emil Brown hits a ball to the warning track in straight away center than Ellsbury catches with a backward leap. He crashes into the wall but holds on to the ball. The NESN announcers are calling it a great catch, but I think he leaped too early. If he stays on his feet and keeps running I think he gets under the ball. Still, and out's and out, and it must be difficult playing under that white ceiling.
The A's go 1-2-3 in the eighth. The Sox have three outs to get one run. Lowell, Moss and Varitek are due up.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM
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Giambi receives praise for his play at first this spring:
"The thing I've learned is that you have to change your training," Giambi said. "It stunk going through everything, but it all was a blessing in disguise. Even tearing my foot."
Giambi did much more sprint work this off-season and worked on explosive techniques that made him quicker on his feet.
"A few years ago I would have said there was no chance I'd be training like I am now," said Giambi, who was batting .406 this spring. Tino Martinez is surprised at how well Giambi is playing.
"He's actually moving around better than I thought," Martinez said. "I think he was feeling tentative in the past. The whole key is moving your feet but not being afraid to make a mistake. You don't want to hold the ball when you got an easy out at second and just get the guy at first. In the past he would do that. Now he's not afraid to go and get lead runners. That really helps the pitching staff."
We'll see long that lasts during the regular season. Having Giambi at first, however, gives the Yankees their best offensive team.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 AM
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March 19, 2008
The Transaction Guy makes a good case for the Padres 2008 outfield defense hurting the pitching staff this season.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 PM
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February 24, 2008
Via WasWatching, Joel Sherman joins the Jeter debate:
But what is being missed here is the preponderance of evidence against Jeter's defensive game. This is not just one set of Ivy League academics calling Jeter the majors' worst fielding shortstop. Just about every respected baseball statistician who has publicized results reveals Jeter is, at best, among the poorest defensive shortstops in the game.
You can attack methodology; you can say no perfect formula has yet been devised to encapsulate all the elements - positioning, speed of the hit ball, field conditions - into a single defensive statistic. However, these metrics keep evolving in sophistication. And Jeter keeps faring poorly in nearly every study year after year. Do you think there is a conspiracy? Do you think statisticians en masse have covertly met and made their quest to soil Jeter's glovely reputation?
"This study has been done a zillion times and the same conclusion is reached every time," an AL official said. "What do you think that means?"
For Jeter devotees, it means assailing the geeks. But as an AL executive said, "this isn't geeks vs. jocks. This is myth vs. reality." In reality, most baseball officials laugh off the three Gold Gloves Jeter won from 2004-06 in the way they do the four Bernie Williams won as having more to do with offense, fame and winning than with actual defense.
I'm very glad this debate is now fully out in the open. It's easy to dismiss one study, but when all of them point in the same direction, year after year, people start to notice. It looks like one of those people was indeed Jeter:
Perhaps the strongest condemnation came from Jeter, who said, "Last year, I didn't have a good year defensively."
It doesn't sound like much, especially since Jeter limited a serial inadequacy to just 2007. Except Jeter is not one to ever publicly apologize for, or criticize, his own game. But this is more than words with Jeter. He rededicated himself in the offseason with exercises designed to improve his lateral quickness and first-step explosiveness. One Yankee official saw this version of Jeter and said, "He set the clock back five years."
"I'm a lot quicker, a lot more agile," Jeter said. "Only time will tell, but that is what I worked on."
Actions speak louder than words.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 AM
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February 23, 2008
Via WasWatching, Jeter says no to a position shift:
Many scouts believe Jeter would be able to make an easy transition to the outfield, where his speed, strong arm and terrific instincts would make him a natural. Asked about the possibility, Jeter waves off the question before it's finished.
"I ain't going out there," Jeter said. "It's not as easy as it sounds to just pick up a glove and say, 'I'm going to be an outfielder today.' It doesn't work like that."
As for his current position, Jeter feels he's a better shortstop now than he was during the early years of his career thanks to experience. By making the necessary adjustments on a regular basis, Jeter is constantly addressing what he feels are his strengths and weaknesses in the field. Just don't ask him what those are.
"I'll leave that to the computers to figure out," he said with a grin.
He doesn't move to his left or right well.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 AM
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February 21, 2008
Via MLB FanHouse, Derek Jeter and Gene Michael talk about the shortstop's poor range:
"Maybe it was a computer glitch," the three-time Gold Glove winner said of the report. But Jeter just didn't laugh this one off. He defended himself, saying, "Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."
Jeter, 33, pointed out you can get the exact same ground ball off the exact same pitcher and there could be an average runner or there could be Ichiro running. "How can you compute that?" he asked.
You can't. That's one reason Yankees senior advisor Gene Michael was infuriated by the University of Pennsylvania report.
"Something like that is a disgrace," the scout said. "It made me ill when I read that article. First of all, what pitching staff was out there? Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls.
"You simply can't do that by those charts, that's a bunch of baloney," Michael added. "It's disgraceful. You have to use a scout's eye to determine range."
Of course, we do take most of those factors into account. For every Ichiro running to first, there's a Jason Giambi. Over time, those factors even out. As for the pitching staff, the Yankees have undergone numerous changes over the last few years, and somehow Derek stays at the bottom of the pack.
I'd also like to comment on one thing from the FanHouse post (emphasis added):
Baseball's different. It's very easy to watch Jeter fly deep in the hole, plant, pivot and gun a runner and come to the conclusion that he's a great fielder. It's a pretty play, full of athleticism and grace and that's more memorable than a grounder that finds a hole or a double play that doesn't get turned. That doesn't make it more important, though. These kinds of analysis help us understand baseball in its fullest context. That context, however, doesn't matter much when Jeter cuts off a poor throw, flips it to the plate and saves a run.
04 September 2006: New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter makes a throw to 1st base but is unable to get Kansas City Royals center fielder Joey Gathright out in the 5th inning at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
Photo: Icon SMI
If Jeter actually planted and pivoted in the hole, I think his numbers would be better. What he actually does is stop, jump and throw, using only his arm to get the ball to first. His movement is more like a skater transferring kinetic energy from the horizontal to the vertical with a toe pick. None of that energy is being used to hurl the ball toward first base. I cringe every time he tries to make that play, because no matter how good it looks, it's the wrong way to throw. If he stopped, planted and used his whole body to send the ball across the diamond, he'd make a stronger and more accurate throw. How many times does that toss pull the first baseman off the bag or sail over his head? David Eckstein can make the plant and throw play, why can't the bigger and stronger Jeter?
Update: Tango's take.
Update: 100% Injury Rate chimes in. He points to some old data that shows Jeter wasn't the best fielding shortstop on his team, with the same pitching staff. The same things shows up in 2007 PMR. As a team, the Yankees shortstops produced 38 fewer outs than expected. Jeter, however, produced forty fewer outs than expected! So the replacements were a bit better.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM
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February 17, 2008
One of the things to come out of the talk yesterday was that Troy Tulowitzki seemed to be covering for Garrett Atkins defensive woes. Tulowitzki produced 50 outs more than expected in 2007, while Atkins missed about 48 outs. You can see from their ground ball PMR graphs, that the difference happens in the hole:
Atkins, 2007
Tulowitzki 2007
Alan Schwarz, during the talk, wondered if this was more a reflection of strategy on the part of the Rockies as opposed a Garrett Atkins fielding deficiency. Apparently not.
Last spring, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had to take it. This year, as a rich, budding star, he's dishing it out.
Saturday, Tulo's target was third baseman Garrett Atkins.
"Atkins doesn't do much over there," Tulowitzki said with a sly grin. "He kind of just stands there and watches balls."
Tulowitzki was kidding, but there's a element of truth there. Note that the Rockies didn't lock up Atkins long term.
Hat tip, Purple Row.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM
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November 26, 2007
Does a Good Offense Improve a Defense?
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One criticism leveled at the Probabilistic Model of Range this year is that due to building the models based on the visiting team fielders, teams with good offenses get a bonus defensively. The example given is the Yankees, but there are other high offense teams ranked high in terms of PMR.
The idea is that since the Yankees hit well, their opponents DER must by definition be low. A ball put in play by the Yankees must have a lower probability of being turned into an out. This causes the model to underestimate the fielding ability of opponents, and over estimate the fielding ability of the Yankees. If the model contained one parameter, ballpark, then this would be absolutely true. However, there are six parameters, including a vector indicating the direction of the ball. I propose that the Yankees hit better than their opponents not because a random ball in play has a higher probability of falling for a hit, but because the Yankees do a better job of hitting balls where they are tough to field.
The following table shows the number of ground balls hit by the Yankees and their opponents by vector:
| Vector | Yankees | Opponents | Predicted DER |
| 25 | 4 | 4 | 0.000 |
| 26 | 12 | 14 | 0.000 |
| 27 | 37 | 26 | 0.766 |
| 28 | 118 | 57 | 0.898 |
| 29 | 175 | 118 | 0.706 |
| 30 | 193 | 156 | 0.671 |
| 31 | 148 | 119 | 0.844 |
| 32 | 111 | 82 | 0.934 |
| 33 | 164 | 136 | 0.868 |
| 34 | 114 | 105 | 0.585 |
| 35 | 100 | 74 | 0.535 |
| 36 | 117 | 124 | 0.624 |
| 37 | 101 | 108 | 0.617 |
| 38 | 116 | 150 | 0.838 |
| 39 | 119 | 131 | 0.865 |
| 40 | 163 | 139 | 0.764 |
| 41 | 165 | 174 | 0.550 |
| 42 | 110 | 130 | 0.688 |
| 43 | 61 | 55 | 0.847 |
| 44 | 35 | 40 | 0.572 |
| 45 | 7 | 13 | 0.010 |
| 46 | 5 | 5 | 0.000 |
As you can see, the low probability vectors are 29-30, the shortstop hole, 34-37, up the middle, 41-42, the second base hole, and 44, right down the first base line. I'm not looking at the foul vectors where a ball is always a hit. Breaking these down:
| Ground balls | Yankees | Opponents |
| In Holes | 1110 | 1029 |
| At Fielders | 882 | 895 |
So the Yankees hit more grounders where they are less likely to be fielded, and fewer grounders where they are more likely to be fielded than their opponents. Later I want to look at how the Yankees field home and road. If they field much better at home, then the objection still my have some validity.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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November 25, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2007
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To complete the survery of range, here are how pitchers rank. First the teams:
Team Pitchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
| Astros | 4530 | 205 | 183.71 | 0.045 | 0.041 | 111.59 |
| Padres | 4476 | 243 | 228.50 | 0.054 | 0.051 | 106.35 |
| Rockies | 4599 | 218 | 206.59 | 0.047 | 0.045 | 105.52 |
| Indians | 4548 | 181 | 171.92 | 0.040 | 0.038 | 105.28 |
| Mets | 4362 | 173 | 164.61 | 0.040 | 0.038 | 105.09 |
| White Sox | 4545 | 196 | 186.52 | 0.043 | 0.041 | 105.08 |
| Yankees | 4511 | 181 | 172.92 | 0.040 | 0.038 | 104.67 |
| Tigers | 4486 | 167 | 159.73 | 0.037 | 0.036 | 104.55 |
| Red Sox | 4226 | 149 | 142.79 | 0.035 | 0.034 | 104.35 |
| Mariners | 4535 | 174 | 167.33 | 0.038 | 0.037 | 103.99 |
| Blue Jays | 4349 | 200 | 194.00 | 0.046 | 0.045 | 103.09 |
| Phillies | 4505 | 193 | 187.33 | 0.043 | 0.042 | 103.02 |
| Pirates | 4608 | 204 | 200.82 | 0.044 | 0.044 | 101.58 |
| Cubs | 4177 | 166 | 163.95 | 0.040 | 0.039 | 101.25 |
| Rangers | 4518 | 197 | 195.59 | 0.044 | 0.043 | 100.72 |
| Braves | 4404 | 206 | 204.60 | 0.047 | 0.046 | 100.69 |
| Devil Rays | 4378 | 148 | 147.07 | 0.034 | 0.034 | 100.63 |
| Twins | 4384 | 150 | 152.30 | 0.034 | 0.035 | 98.49 |
| Orioles | 4403 | 160 | 162.54 | 0.036 | 0.037 | 98.44 |
| Nationals | 4591 | 167 | 170.78 | 0.036 | 0.037 | 97.78 |
| Marlins | 4491 | 178 | 182.52 | 0.040 | 0.041 | 97.52 |
| Angels | 4325 | 143 | 146.86 | 0.033 | 0.034 | 97.37 |
| Giants | 4467 | 159 | 163.87 | 0.036 | 0.037 | 97.03 |
| Diamondbacks | 4351 | 207 | 213.40 | 0.048 | 0.049 | 97.00 |
| Cardinals | 4587 | 158 | 166.21 | 0.034 | 0.036 | 95.06 |
| Athletics | 4499 | 165 | 174.70 | 0.037 | 0.039 | 94.45 |
| Brewers | 4392 | 179 | 192.64 | 0.041 | 0.044 | 92.92 |
| Dodgers | 4310 | 189 | 205.96 | 0.044 | 0.048 | 91.76 |
| Reds | 4533 | 162 | 180.13 | 0.036 | 0.040 | 89.93 |
| Royals | 4528 | 151 | 179.20 | 0.033 | 0.040 | 84.27 |
The Padres not only induce the most predicted outs back to the pitcher, they exceed those outs by a great deal. Maddux is one reason:
Individual Pitcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (400 balls in play)
| Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
| Chris Sampson | 414 | 24 | 15.23 | 0.058 | 0.037 | 157.55 |
| Matt Cain | 571 | 26 | 19.79 | 0.046 | 0.035 | 131.37 |
| Chad Durbin | 417 | 15 | 11.48 | 0.036 | 0.028 | 130.65 |
| Shaun Marcum | 456 | 27 | 20.71 | 0.059 | 0.045 | 130.37 |
| Steve Trachsel | 549 | 35 | 26.89 | 0.064 | 0.049 | 130.17 |
| Mike Mussina | 512 | 27 | 20.84 | 0.053 | 0.041 | 129.54 |
| Woody Williams | 632 | 36 | 27.90 | 0.057 | 0.044 | 129.04 |
| Aaron Cook | 572 | 37 | 28.69 | 0.065 | 0.050 | 128.98 |
| Miguel Batista | 615 | 26 | 20.17 | 0.042 | 0.033 | 128.92 |
| Jon Garland | 705 | 34 | 26.84 | 0.048 | 0.038 | 126.66 |
| Kelvim Escobar | 572 | 17 | 13.58 | 0.030 | 0.024 | 125.21 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 536 | 21 | 16.87 | 0.039 | 0.031 | 124.46 |
| Greg Maddux | 681 | 53 | 42.87 | 0.078 | 0.063 | 123.64 |
| Ervin Santana | 457 | 13 | 10.59 | 0.028 | 0.023 | 122.72 |
| Jake Peavy | 571 | 30 | 24.58 | 0.053 | 0.043 | 122.03 |
| Brandon Webb | 692 | 53 | 43.55 | 0.077 | 0.063 | 121.69 |
| Mike Bacsik | 414 | 15 | 12.35 | 0.036 | 0.030 | 121.42 |
| Tim Wakefield | 600 | 24 | 19.83 | 0.040 | 0.033 | 121.05 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 610 | 30 | 25.00 | 0.049 | 0.041 | 119.98 |
| Javier Vazquez | 583 | 28 | 23.46 | 0.048 | 0.040 | 119.34 |
| Adam Eaton | 525 | 22 | 18.49 | 0.042 | 0.035 | 119.00 |
| Nate Robertson | 573 | 27 | 22.77 | 0.047 | 0.040 | 118.56 |
| John Danks | 427 | 15 | 12.83 | 0.035 | 0.030 | 116.94 |
| James Shields | 615 | 26 | 22.26 | 0.042 | 0.036 | 116.80 |
| Justin Verlander | 577 | 17 | 14.69 | 0.029 | 0.025 | 115.76 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 643 | 34 | 29.61 | 0.053 | 0.046 | 114.84 |
| Carlos Silva | 699 | 27 | 23.54 | 0.039 | 0.034 | 114.70 |
| John Smoltz | 586 | 30 | 26.16 | 0.051 | 0.045 | 114.69 |
| Dustin McGowan | 484 | 31 | 27.18 | 0.064 | 0.056 | 114.04 |
| Justin Germano | 426 | 21 | 18.42 | 0.049 | 0.043 | 114.04 |
| Ted Lilly | 586 | 24 | 21.09 | 0.041 | 0.036 | 113.81 |
| Dontrelle Willis | 667 | 39 | 34.32 | 0.058 | 0.051 | 113.64 |
| Kyle Davies | 432 | 16 | 14.08 | 0.037 | 0.033 | 113.60 |
| Sergio Mitre | 522 | 29 | 25.58 | 0.056 | 0.049 | 113.35 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 555 | 24 | 21.21 | 0.043 | 0.038 | 113.18 |
| Joe Blanton | 750 | 28 | 25.10 | 0.037 | 0.033 | 111.54 |
| Jake Westbrook | 481 | 27 | 24.51 | 0.056 | 0.051 | 110.17 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | 408 | 14 | 12.81 | 0.034 | 0.031 | 109.28 |
| Matt Chico | 548 | 16 | 14.77 | 0.029 | 0.027 | 108.33 |
| Jamie Moyer | 633 | 30 | 27.83 | 0.047 | 0.044 | 107.81 |
| Johan Santana | 555 | 24 | 22.27 | 0.043 | 0.040 | 107.75 |
| Tom Glavine | 674 | 27 | 25.15 | 0.040 | 0.037 | 107.37 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 701 | 24 | 22.47 | 0.034 | 0.032 | 106.80 |
| Brett Tomko | 415 | 16 | 14.99 | 0.039 | 0.036 | 106.77 |
| Jarrod Washburn | 627 | 20 | 18.81 | 0.032 | 0.030 | 106.33 |
| Noah Lowry | 502 | 23 | 21.69 | 0.046 | 0.043 | 106.02 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 527 | 21 | 19.85 | 0.040 | 0.038 | 105.81 |
| Chris Capuano | 456 | 28 | 26.47 | 0.061 | 0.058 | 105.77 |
| Fausto Carmona | 654 | 36 | 34.14 | 0.055 | 0.052 | 105.43 |
| Roy Halladay | 722 | 36 | 34.31 | 0.050 | 0.048 | 104.94 |
| Mark Buehrle | 648 | 33 | 31.47 | 0.051 | 0.049 | 104.86 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 661 | 27 | 25.79 | 0.041 | 0.039 | 104.71 |
| David Bush | 594 | 24 | 23.12 | 0.040 | 0.039 | 103.80 |
| Kyle Kendrick | 401 | 20 | 19.29 | 0.050 | 0.048 | 103.69 |
| David Wells | 545 | 20 | 19.32 | 0.037 | 0.035 | 103.52 |
| Erik Bedard | 431 | 17 | 16.46 | 0.039 | 0.038 | 103.29 |
| Jeff Suppan | 708 | 34 | 32.99 | 0.048 | 0.047 | 103.05 |
| Barry Zito | 608 | 21 | 20.40 | 0.035 | 0.034 | 102.94 |
| Jason Marquis | 626 | 25 | 24.34 | 0.040 | 0.039 | 102.70 |
| Jeff Francis | 662 | 30 | 29.40 | 0.045 | 0.044 | 102.04 |
| Kameron Loe | 464 | 28 | 27.74 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 100.93 |
| Livan Hernandez | 704 | 38 | 37.71 | 0.054 | 0.054 | 100.78 |
| Paul Maholm | 583 | 30 | 29.99 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 100.02 |
| Matt Morris | 693 | 28 | 28.14 | 0.040 | 0.041 | 99.50 |
| Kip Wells | 522 | 20 | 20.10 | 0.038 | 0.039 | 99.48 |
| Ian Snell | 606 | 20 | 20.14 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 99.33 |
| Odalis Perez | 494 | 18 | 18.33 | 0.036 | 0.037 | 98.20 |
| John Maine | 527 | 17 | 17.37 | 0.032 | 0.033 | 97.86 |
| Cole Hamels | 495 | 23 | 23.78 | 0.046 | 0.048 | 96.70 |
| Chad Gaudin | 603 | 21 | 21.76 | 0.035 | 0.036 | 96.51 |
| A.J. Burnett | 414 | 15 | 15.67 | 0.036 | 0.038 | 95.73 |
| Mike Maroth | 417 | 17 | 17.85 | 0.041 | 0.043 | 95.22 |
| Tim Hudson | 722 | 41 | 43.25 | 0.057 | 0.060 | 94.81 |
| Felix Hernandez | 567 | 26 | 27.45 | 0.046 | 0.048 | 94.73 |
| Jered Weaver | 514 | 18 | 19.04 | 0.035 | 0.037 | 94.51 |
| Brian Bannister | 540 | 20 | 21.19 | 0.037 | 0.039 | 94.40 |
| Oliver Perez | 483 | 11 | 11.65 | 0.023 | 0.024 | 94.40 |
| Micah Owings | 461 | 22 | 23.32 | 0.048 | 0.051 | 94.34 |
| Kyle Lohse | 615 | 22 | 23.48 | 0.036 | 0.038 | 93.71 |
| Jeff Weaver | 511 | 10 | 10.72 | 0.020 | 0.021 | 93.32 |
| Chuck James | 484 | 15 | 16.10 | 0.031 | 0.033 | 93.18 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | 642 | 24 | 25.76 | 0.037 | 0.040 | 93.18 |
| Roy Oswalt | 675 | 36 | 38.80 | 0.053 | 0.057 | 92.79 |
| Adam Wainwright | 654 | 28 | 30.29 | 0.043 | 0.046 | 92.44 |
| Jose Contreras | 647 | 22 | 23.80 | 0.034 | 0.037 | 92.43 |
| Scott Kazmir | 534 | 16 | 17.46 | 0.030 | 0.033 | 91.64 |
| Lenny DiNardo | 430 | 15 | 16.48 | 0.035 | 0.038 | 91.04 |
| Derek Lowe | 604 | 27 | 29.69 | 0.045 | 0.049 | 90.95 |
| Andy Pettitte | 690 | 26 | 28.59 | 0.038 | 0.041 | 90.93 |
| Paul Byrd | 686 | 21 | 23.15 | 0.031 | 0.034 | 90.72 |
| Aaron Harang | 642 | 23 | 25.44 | 0.036 | 0.040 | 90.42 |
| Doug Davis | 597 | 32 | 36.17 | 0.054 | 0.061 | 88.47 |
| Scott Olsen | 578 | 21 | 23.75 | 0.036 | 0.041 | 88.41 |
| Josh Fogg | 556 | 21 | 23.79 | 0.038 | 0.043 | 88.26 |
| Scott Baker | 454 | 13 | 14.84 | 0.029 | 0.033 | 87.58 |
| Rich Hill | 527 | 21 | 23.98 | 0.040 | 0.046 | 87.57 |
| Brad Penny | 643 | 25 | 28.93 | 0.039 | 0.045 | 86.41 |
| Kevin Millwood | 571 | 16 | 18.75 | 0.028 | 0.033 | 85.32 |
| John Lackey | 668 | 24 | 28.71 | 0.036 | 0.043 | 83.60 |
| Braden Looper | 581 | 19 | 23.06 | 0.033 | 0.040 | 82.41 |
| Chad Billingsley | 400 | 17 | 20.94 | 0.043 | 0.052 | 81.18 |
| Josh Beckett | 566 | 11 | 13.68 | 0.019 | 0.024 | 80.41 |
| Vicente Padilla | 407 | 12 | 15.11 | 0.029 | 0.037 | 79.44 |
| Chris Young | 448 | 11 | 14.27 | 0.025 | 0.032 | 77.08 |
| Claudio Vargas | 419 | 14 | 18.20 | 0.033 | 0.043 | 76.91 |
| Edwin Jackson | 516 | 12 | 15.91 | 0.023 | 0.031 | 75.43 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 533 | 14 | 18.78 | 0.026 | 0.035 | 74.53 |
| Boof Bonser | 539 | 14 | 18.92 | 0.026 | 0.035 | 74.00 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | 431 | 11 | 15.32 | 0.026 | 0.036 | 71.79 |
| Gil Meche | 663 | 20 | 28.05 | 0.030 | 0.042 | 71.31 |
| Julian Tavarez | 455 | 11 | 15.86 | 0.024 | 0.035 | 69.38 |
| Brad Thompson | 451 | 10 | 14.58 | 0.022 | 0.032 | 68.61 |
| Matt Belisle | 570 | 15 | 22.66 | 0.026 | 0.040 | 66.18 |
| Dan Haren | 661 | 17 | 26.01 | 0.026 | 0.039 | 65.36 |
| Daniel Cabrera | 608 | 13 | 20.82 | 0.021 | 0.034 | 62.44 |
| Ben Sheets | 431 | 11 | 19.19 | 0.026 | 0.045 | 57.31 |
| Curt Schilling | 485 | 7 | 12.87 | 0.014 | 0.027 | 54.40 |
Peavy is also very good, however. Looking at Schilling's low ranking should give his opponents a clue as to his weakness next season. Bunting for hits against Curt might be a very good idea.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 PM
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November 21, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2007
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Fielding by catchers isn't the most important aspect of the job, and the number of outs attributed to the postion are few. But for completeness, here are the tables for the position. First, teams:
Team Catchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
| Cardinals | 4587 | 57 | 47.59 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 119.76 |
| Braves | 4404 | 64 | 55.33 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 115.67 |
| Rockies | 4599 | 76 | 66.39 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 114.48 |
| Yankees | 4511 | 66 | 59.51 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 110.90 |
| Dodgers | 4310 | 68 | 62.43 | 0.016 | 0.014 | 108.91 |
| Angels | 4325 | 39 | 35.96 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 108.47 |
| Marlins | 4491 | 57 | 53.73 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 106.09 |
| Nationals | 4591 | 60 | 57.21 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 104.87 |
| Astros | 4530 | 58 | 55.59 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 104.33 |
| Tigers | 4486 | 50 | 47.96 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 104.25 |
| White Sox | 4545 | 50 | 49.10 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 101.82 |
| Giants | 4467 | 58 | 57.06 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 101.64 |
| Cubs | 4177 | 51 | 50.42 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 101.15 |
| Reds | 4533 | 74 | 73.68 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 100.44 |
| Blue Jays | 4349 | 50 | 49.79 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 100.42 |
| Royals | 4528 | 46 | 45.90 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 100.22 |
| Rangers | 4518 | 48 | 48.05 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 99.90 |
| Red Sox | 4226 | 49 | 49.56 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 98.88 |
| Devil Rays | 4378 | 41 | 41.89 | 0.009 | 0.010 | 97.88 |
| Indians | 4548 | 36 | 37.23 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 96.70 |
| Diamondbacks | 4351 | 50 | 51.94 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 96.26 |
| Padres | 4476 | 59 | 61.48 | 0.013 | 0.014 | 95.97 |
| Orioles | 4403 | 37 | 38.96 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 94.97 |
| Mariners | 4535 | 42 | 44.86 | 0.009 | 0.010 | 93.63 |
| Pirates | 4608 | 51 | 54.75 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 93.15 |
| Phillies | 4505 | 56 | 60.25 | 0.012 | 0.013 | 92.95 |
| Twins | 4384 | 30 | 32.50 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 92.32 |
| Athletics | 4499 | 37 | 41.10 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 90.03 |
| Mets | 4362 | 50 | 56.67 | 0.011 | 0.013 | 88.22 |
| Brewers | 4392 | 51 | 59.91 | 0.012 | 0.014 | 85.13 |
The Mets are Brewers, who just completed a trade at the position, came out at the bottom team wise. New York might have been better off with Torrealba, at least fielding wise.
Individual Catcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
| Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
| Yadier Molina | 2719 | 32 | 26.82 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 119.33 |
| Brian McCann | 3433 | 52 | 43.65 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 119.14 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 2863 | 54 | 45.73 | 0.019 | 0.016 | 118.07 |
| Miguel Olivo | 3131 | 44 | 37.90 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 116.11 |
| Jorge Posada | 3484 | 50 | 43.52 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 114.90 |
| Eric Munson | 1012 | 17 | 15.02 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 113.21 |
| Jeff Mathis | 1421 | 21 | 18.96 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 110.78 |
| Jose Molina | 1431 | 16 | 14.52 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 110.18 |
| Kelly Shoppach | 1365 | 14 | 12.72 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 110.07 |
| Gerald Laird | 3118 | 37 | 33.82 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 109.40 |
| Russell Martin | 3687 | 60 | 55.76 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 107.60 |
| Gregg Zaun | 2559 | 32 | 29.91 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 106.98 |
| Brad Ausmus | 2728 | 33 | 31.07 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 106.22 |
| Chris Iannetta | 1613 | 20 | 18.83 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 106.20 |
| Toby Hall | 1002 | 10 | 9.45 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 105.82 |
| Gary Bennett | |