Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 09, 2009
Catching the Floater
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Art Martone donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to the Projo Sox Blog.

George Kottaras gets a chance to catch Tim Wakefield this week:

After all, Kottaras, 25, might have a shot to become the knuckleballer's personal batterymate.

The early odds-on favorite for that position is Josh Bard, but anything can happen during spring training. Bard has caught Wakefield in all three of his outings during camp, but Kottaras will get his opportunity to work with the veteran in a game on Thursday.

During their conversation on Sunday, Wakefield told Kottaras to take charge out there and have fun with it. Red Sox manager Terry Francona has said he wants to see how Kottaras can handle the job.

"We need to do that," Francona said.

Bard did a poor job with Wakefield in his last stint with Boston, so the Red Sox need a backup plan.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 06, 2009
Great Defense
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Many years ago in one of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James explored the possibility that Ozzie Smith saved the Cardinals 100 runs with his glove (according to Whitey Herzog). James pegged it at closer to 25. Tom Tango looks at the savings a great fielder provides and finds it's about 25 runs. Nice to see different studies years apart come to the same conclusion.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
March 03, 2009
Fielding Runs
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J.C. Bradbury excerpts the new book from John Dewan, The Fielding Bible--Volume II. They now use run potentials to assign run values to +/- scores, and I think I can adapt something similar to the probabilistic model of range.

Hat tip, The Book Blog.

Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2009
Making the Catch
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Josh Bard did not let a Tim Wakefield pitch get by Wednesday night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 24, 2009
Jeter's Errors Don't Hurt
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Michael Walsh says we're all wrong about Derek Jeter's defense, because his actual errors haven't cost the Yankees that many games!

Regardless of the conclusions of any individual study, scientific or otherwise, there is no question that Derek Jeter is nothing less than a solid defender. For anyone to even infer that he may be the worst fielder in all of baseball is simply ridiculous. Truth be told, the current version of Derek Jeter is flashing better leather than the 23-year-old kid who made those costly errors in 1997.

In 2008 Jeter made fewer errors than all but one American League shortstop (Gold Glove winner Michael Young). Yuniesky Betancourt made 21 errors and swung a very average stick. I have yet to see one article proclaiming Betancourt the "least effective" defensive player in the game. Perhaps that's because articles and studies about Yuniesky Betancourt are about as interesting as an Andy Warhol flick. Derek Jeter's celebrity is enormous. I can't think of another shortstop in the big leagues that makes commercials and dates movie stars. Is there a better way to get people talking about your study or newspaper article than to discount the abilities of one of the most recognizable athletes on the planet?

It's not about the errors Jeter makes, it's about all the balls that he never gets a glove on that other shortstops turn into outs. I'm surprised an article like this made it to Dugout Central.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
January 29, 2009
Improving Pitching?
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Lyflines examines the idea that Jason Varitek improves the Boston pitching staff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 27, 2009
Throwing Gene
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Brian Cartwright developed a probabilistic model of catcher caught stealings. The three Molina brothers all come out near the top of the list in 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 26, 2009
Improving Defense
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Via The Detroit Tigers Weblog, Lynn Henning does a good job of explaining the defensive statistics the Tigers are using to evaluate players and improve the left side fielders.

Dombrowski talked about defense as coverage during Saturday's TigerFest at Comerica Park.

"A lot of guys can make the stationary play, but they have no range to their left or right," Dombrowski said. "(Those balls) are base hits, not outs. Brandon Inge and Adam Everett get not only the stationary ball hit at them, but they have range."
Much more range, in fact, than their predecessors, Guillen and Renteria. In plus-minus rankings by Dewan that document how many more, or how many fewer, ground balls are gathered by a particular fielder, Renteria was 28th among shortstops in 2008.

Guillen, who was being asked to adjust to his second new position in one season, was 23rd among third basemen.

It's nice to see these statistics working their way into newspaper articles. However, I'd like to see something on the offensive tradeoffs here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 22, 2009
Armed and Dangerous
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The Hardball Times publishes the best outfield arms of 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 11, 2009
Bartlett's Defense
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DRays Bay examines the reasons for Jason Barlett's defensive decline in 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 05, 2009
Enough Range?
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Nico at Athletics Nation wonders if Oakland signs Giambi if they'll use a shift of infielders to make up for Jason's lack of range. Chase Utley appeared to shade toward first base to help out Ryan Howard this year, so it just might work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 09, 2008
Comparing Fielding Systems
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Tom Tango compares both UZR models with PMR at The Book Blog.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 08, 2008
UZR/PMR Comparison
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Dan Turkenkopf runs correlations of UZR and PMR and I find them surprisingly low, given the two systems use the same data.

Both PMR and UZR were calculated using the Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data set this season. I wonder if David or MGL might be able to give some ideas as to where the differences might come from.

I don't know enough about the UZR calculations to speculate. I base my models mostly on visiting players in parks, however. UZR might use all the data. I also don't know if UZR, like +/-, doesn't penalize players for outs made by others. In PMR. If the right fielder catches a ball that the centerfielder might be able to catch, the centerfielder is penalized. In +/-, the centerfielder is not. Given the low correlation with centerfielders, I suspect that's the case.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 07, 2008
More Defensive Stats
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Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is now available on FanGraphs.com. The version on FanGraphs uses BIS data, not STATS, Inc. data, so it will be interesting to see how it compares to the Probabilistic Model of Range, which also uses BIS. Taking a quick look at shortstop, Jeter finishes in the middle of the pack, just like in PMR.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 04, 2008
Jeter Worst
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Jeter is really getting hammered in the media for his rank in the Fielding Bible Awards. How many years does he need to rank at the bottom of shortstops before the Yankees move him?

Centerfield, right now, is still open. Put Jeter there where his speed and fly ball instincts work. Especially if the Yankees end up with Derek Lowe, they are going to need a shortstop who can gobble up the ball.

For those of you who are waiting, Probabilistic Model of Range rankings are coming soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 13, 2008
No Bad Throws
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff proposes a rule for Ryan Howard and throws.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 12, 2008
Shallow Defense
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Spitting Seeds is concerned B.J. Upton plays too shallow in centerfield. I think most outfielder play too deep, so I can't really complain about this too much.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2008
Cameron's Explanation
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Mike Cameron explains here why he misjudged the ball that led to the Phillies runs.

"I cut across like it was going to go down but it kept rising," said Cameron. "My first instinct was that it was not going to travel, because of the way the wind was blowing. It just kind of took off."

Mike chases fly balls differently than most outfielders. Instead of tracking the ball all the way, Mike developed an excellent pattern recognizer that allows him to judge where the ball will go off the bat and run there without following the ball too closely. Today, that recognizer made a mistake. Despite that, he almost made a great catch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
September 14, 2008
Wide Wingspan
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It's a good thing Corey Hart stands 6' 6". On a Werth fly to right, Corey fought the sun and picked up the ball at the last second. He stretched out his arm and just reached the ball, tumbling up holding on. The catch came with two on and two out and preserved the Brewers 3-1 lead at the end of five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 06, 2008
Eye Line
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A new study reveals why line drives hit right at an outfielder are so difficult to catch:

Then they presented their subjects with two targets moving at the same speed -- one laterally and one in depth -- and asked them to decide which was faster. On average, they said the lateral motion was 1.3 to 2.7 times faster than an object at the identical speed but moving straight at them.

Finally, they asked their subjects to estimate the angle at which an object was approaching them. The trajectory of an object moving close to the midline of vision was consistently harder to predict than objects moving at greater angles to the observer.

In other words, when the object was moving directly toward them, people were terrible at estimating distance, bad at guessing speed and highly inaccurate at predicting trajectory -- a combination all but guaranteed to increase the opposition's batting average.

Very cool. So next time an outfielder misses a hard shot right at him, cut the player some slack.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:57 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
August 24, 2008
Wisdom of the Crowds
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Once again, Tom Tango is looking for your help in rating fielders. Here's your chance to add your expertise to the fans scouting report.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nice Catches in Philly
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The Phillies make two nice catches in the top of the sixth against the Dodgers. Loney hit a long drive to deep centerfield, and Shane Victorino ran it down, making it look easy. With Garciaparra at first with two out, Martin hit a pop foul down the rightfield line. Ryan Howard raced down the line dived near the stands and made the catch. The Phillies are known for their offense, but in a 1-1 game they are flashing a little leather.

Howard, who made the great play to end the top of the inning, leads off the bottom half.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 19, 2008
Overbay to Save the Day
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Lyle Overbay just saved the game for the Blue Jays. With the score 2-1 in favor of Toronto in the top of the ninth, Alex Rodriguez hits one off the end of the bat that lands over Overbay's head in right. A-Rod wasn't running that hard, thinking it would either be caught or fall for a single. The ball however, rolled away from Lyle, and Alex turned it on for second. Overbay ran the ball down, slid picking it up and made a perfect throw to second to nab Alex. B.J. Ryan retires the last two batters and Toronto wins 2-1. They are now just one game behind the Yankees for third place in the AL East.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 03, 2008
Lead Gloves
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Rare poor defense by the Angels allows the Yankees to tie the game in the eighth. Ivan Rodriguez singles (he homered earlier). Melky Cabrera is sent to sacrifice, but Shields falls behind 3-0, and Melky takes two to run the count 3-2. At that point, Justin Christian pinch runs, and starts on the next pitch. Aybar moves to cover second, and Melky grounds one right to him. He's not ready for it, and the ball bounds off his chest for an error. Then, the two attempt a double steal. Figgins is in as Damon squared to bunt, and Mathis throws to a back-peddling Figgins, but the ball goes into leftfield. Christian scores, and the Yankees now have 2nd and 3rd with one out. Usually, it's the Angels speed and the Yankees poor defense that makes the difference between these two teams.

Update: Abreu walks to load the bases. A-Rod hits a grounder to third, but instead of a double play, Figgins bobbles the ball and doesn't get an out. The Yankees take a 10-9 lead.

Update: Cano knocks in two with a single and the Yankees take a 12-9 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:02 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
July 14, 2008
Slating Defense
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Nate DiMeo pens an article for Slate titled, "Derek Jeter vs. Objective Reality." He's asking why there is a disconnect between what fans think of Jeter's defense and what statistical research shows. There's another question he asks as well:

If the sabermetric case against Jeter's glove has long been closed, why do the sabermetricians keep opening it? In an e-mail, Tom Tango joked that Jeter comes up again and again "because he gets far more girls than his fielding talents should allow." And there's probably something to that: The stat guys want to kick a little sand back at the press-box bullies--all of whom seem to have Word macros for phrases like "nerd writing in his mother's basement"--who lazily swallow the myth of Jeter's fielding prowess.

But the better answer is that Jeter's defense is at the heart of the conflict between sabermetrics and traditional baseball fandom. A recent article by Baseball Prospectus' Dan Fox poses the age-old question, "[W]hat would Sir Francis Bacon, the English philosopher and statesman, have thought of Jeter's defense?" Fox, who recently announced his departure from the blog world to join the front office of the Pittsburgh Pirates, looks back to Bacon's notion that people tend to think that memorable incidents define the whole. So we see Jeter flip the ball to Posada or emerge bloodied after leaping into the stands to catch a Trot Nixon foul ball and think "great fielder." Bacon, like today's statistical innovators, would seek out objective scientific data to understand the larger truth about Mr. Jeter. These data show that--yes, Sox fans--Jeter totally sucks.

I would note, too, that the case for OBA was made in quite the same way. Sabermetricans talked and talked about OBA for years before people started to pay attention. It was probably Sandy Alderson who helped move it into the main stream. I remember an ESPN broadcast where Gary Thorne suddenly started praising OBA because Alderson talked about it in an interview.

At some point, a GM will say something like, "We signed him as a free agent, because despite all the errors our probabilistic models show he turns lots of tough hits into outs." Then these models will start gaining acceptance.

Thanks to Nate for a link to the Probabilistic Mode of Range.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2008
The Grab
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I just saw the highlight of Matt Treanor's double play last night. The ball was bunted, and Matt grabbed it out of the air and threw to second for the double play. Seems like a good time to recall this Treanor story.

The Diamondbacks get a two-run homer from Stephen Drew to take a 2-0 lead over the Marlins in the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2008
All You Need is Glove
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Joe Christensen describes the fielding drill that helped Alexi Casilla make a spectacular play Wednesday night. It's one of the little things Ron Gardenhire works on to make the team better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 24, 2008
Measuring Defense
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Pizza Cutter is doing some very good work on defense at MVN. I like the way he's trying to separate the ability to get to a ball from the ability to field the ball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2008
Mixing and Matching
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Jim Leyland adds another wrinkle to the Tigers defense. He's going to use Carlos Guillen in leftfield sometimes to get Inge games at third base:

Manager Jim Leyland said Saturday that Guillen probably will start in left field today against the Mariners.

Leyland had said after Friday night's game that he might use Guillen in left at least occasionally.

"This is how I can get (Guillen) in the lineup if I want to play (Brandon) Inge at third," Leyland said after Friday night's game.

To his credit, Guillen is game. He was signed as an outfielder but moved to the infield when he started in pro ball.

"I'm not afraid to play left," Guillen said. "You have to have confidence to play this game. You play this game with passion."
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 29, 2008
No Man is an Islet
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Ryan Langerhans is back with the Nationals and just made a possible game saving catch in San Diego. With the score tied at two in the bottom of the eighth, Kevin Kouzmanoff launches one to the stand in leftfield. Ryan leaped, got his glove over the railing, and pulled the ball back in to preserve the tie. He's also singled and driven in a run.

Update: The catch is for naught as Jody Gerut hits a three-run homer down the rightfield line for a 5-2 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2008
A Little Defense
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Nick Cafardo makes Dustin Pedroia the center of his piece on the Red Sox 5-3 win over the Mariners Monday night. He notes a defensive play in the third as a key moment in the game:

Take the play he made in the third inning of last night's 5-3 win over the Mariners: runners at first and second, two outs, when Jose Lopez hit a ball that for all intents and purposes should have gone through into right field for a run-producing hit. Yet Pedroia, who was positioned more toward second base, got a good jump on the ball and made a diving play to the first base side to retire Lopez and keep Bartolo Colon out of peril.

(Actually, there were runners at first and third.)

I saw the play last night and watched it again this morning. It was a nice play by Dustin, the kind that separates a good fielder from a bad one. It's an easy out if the fielder is positioned differently. Pedroia showed on that play what we normally consider range, the ability to cover a lot of ground to get to a ball.

When I run the Probabalistic Model of Range, I define range as the ability to turn a ball into an out. Positioning plays a large role in that. One would expect the players that can make up for being out of position on a ball with their ability to cover ground will tend to score higher in the rankings. Maybe when we get Joe Maddon's GPS system we'll know for sure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 26, 2008
Defensive Manager
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I like the way Joe Maddon thinks about defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2008
No Hit Tek
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NESN is reporting that Varitek is the first catcher to receive four no hitters. They left Torborg off their graphic as catchers who caught three. Can anyone think of anyone else who caught four?

Add to that Schilling's near no-hitter last season, and Varitek's had quite the low-hit career.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
May 18, 2008
New Position
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Hank Blalock volunteered to move to first base when he comes off the disabled list:

"It's his decision," Texas manager Ron Washington said. "He said he had looked at the team and thought he could help the squad more at first. This is Hank just being a very intelligent baseball man,"

Blalock has played 686 career games at third base and none at first. Washington was giving Blalock some pointers during infield practice Sunday.

The Rangers are sending Blalock to extended spring training in Arizona on Monday. Washington said Blalock will probably stay in Arizona until he comes off the disabled list -- which may be as early as Friday.

"It's a new position for me and I'm not sure how I'll do," Blalock said. "I wouldn't have initiated it if it wasn't something I was excited about."

Blalock was hitting better this season before he tore the hamstring. Rangers this season have gotten a .602 OPS out of their first basemen coming into Sunday's games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2008
Reaching Third on a Strikeout
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You don't see this too often. Kuroda strikes out Aybar, but the pitch is not caught cleanly. With a man on second and two out, Aybar starts running to first. The catcher, Bennett, throws the ball over the head of the first baseman down the leftfield line. Kotchman scores from second, and Aybar turns on the afterburner and reaches third base. A strikeout triple! The Angels take a 1-0 lead in the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2008
Swirling Winds
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Richard Durrett made the case this morning in the Dallas Morning News that the Rangers did what they needed to change themselves for the better, including defense:

The club that bobbled balls, missed cut-off men, made errant throws and beat itself to start the season has morphed into one that is putting together an impressive highlight reel of defensive plays, adding four more to the collection Tuesday.

And it isn't just the defense. These Rangers are manufacturing runs, running the bases smartly, delivering key hits, and, most important, pitching well. Consequently, they are winning games.

That's true, but everyonce in a while the wind shifts back to the old ways. A bobbled ground ball and a mis-read line drive lead to two innings in the seventh inning today, giving the Mariners a 3-2 lead. Scott Feldman pitched very well today, but the two unearned runs mean he's now in line for a loss.

Update: Hamilton makes up for the misplayed line drive with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game at three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 12, 2008
The Dive for the Shutout
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With men on first and third and two out in the top of the ninth, Franklin Gutierrez came up with the second great dive of the game. Mench hit a high liner into right center. It looked like it would drop to plate the first run of the game, but it hung up just long enough for Franklin to get over and make the diving catch. Two batters earlier, with a man on second, Rios hit a hard line drive snared by Victor Martinez at first. Lee completes nine scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 0.67. Now the Indians need to plate a run to get him a win.

Marcum is out of the game after eight innings. Ryan tries to preserve the tie.

Update: Ryan gets two popups as he retires the side in order. The game will be decided in extra innings. The Indians still have just two hits.

Update: Stewart breaks the scoreless tie in the tenth, and Hill follows with a two-run single to give Toronto a 3-0 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Triple Play, 4
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Andrew Marshall writes:

Asdrubal Cabrera just turned an unassisted triple play behind Cliff Lee. This offense (Toronto) has become comically bad.

The Indians, of course, have the only unassisted triple play in World Series history, way back in 1920. This evening, the runners were going, Overbay hit a line drive that Asdrubal caught on a dive. The runners had already advanced a base, so Cabrera just had to tag the base and the runner from first to complete the TP. The game remains scoreless in the top of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 04, 2008
Tough Roof
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It must be tough to see pop ups in foul area on the third base side in Arizona. Mark Reynolds over-ran a ball near the stands earlier, and just now Schneider called off Wright, then lost the ball. The Mets lead 2-1 in the bottom of the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2008
Catching the Ball
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My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2008
Shift Across the Diamond
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Jim Leyland decided to switch Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen defensively. So now Miguel's followed the full Albert Pujols path.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
All You Need is Glove
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There was plenty of praise for Chase Utley's glove last night:

With the bases loaded and one out and the Phillies trailing 3-0, second baseman Chase Utley launched himself parallel to the infield dirt and somehow managed to snag Clint Barmes' hard-hit chopper that seemed destined for centerfield. After landing flat on his torso, he raised his glove and shoveled the ball to shortstop Eric Bruntlett, who made a quick throw to first base for an inning-ending doubleplay.

"After the game, I told him 'Thank you,' " said righthander Kyle Kendrick, who pitched five innings and gave up all five Rockies runs on home runs by Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

Utley saved two runs, for sure.

Who knows how many may have followed?

"Bases loaded, it kind of slowed them down a little bit," Utley said. "A base hit there obviously would have hurt a lot."

Power and defense at second base is a rare combination. Morgan and Sandberg are the only two in my lifetime who did both extremely well. Utley was among the best second baseman in range as measured by PMR last season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
April 21, 2008
Ordonez Shift
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The Tigers broadcast pointed out something about the defensive alignment against Magglio Ordonez. The first baseman is playing way off the line, in what would usually be the hole between second and first. According to them, Ordonez hit a good many balls there last season, and few down the first base line. It's a good defensive adjustment so far, as they've kept Magglio's average down to .264.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 17, 2008

When I was in college, my roommates and I used to kid that the threshold for an error was set too low. Our opinion was that if the greatest fielder at the position would have made the play, then it should go as an error.

With Kyle Lohse at the plate and the bases loaded, he slapped a ball to the left of Counsell at third. Counsell was in, he dove, but the ball went under his glove for a two-run single. Since Graig Nettles would have not only snagged the ball, but turned it into a double play, Counsell should really get an E5.. :-)

By the way, I love Brian Barton's socks. He's mixed a 50s uniform with a wild hairdo. The contrast looks great.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 15, 2008
Shortstop in Center
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Alexei Ramirez starts in centerfield for the White Sox today and makes a spectacular throw to get Emil Brown. Brown hit a ball into the gap in right-center. Ramirez got to the hit in a hurry, grabbed the ball spun and threw a strike to second base without setting himself. Brown was out by a mile. Alexei showed off everything on that play; speed, soft hands, and an accurate and powerful arm. Look for that play on Web Gems tonight.

The game is scoreless in the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 14, 2008
Catchers Fielding
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I don't think of Victor Martinez as a defensive catcher, but he just made a great play on Coco Crisp. Crisp laid a bunt down the third base line that died at the grass cut out in front of the plate. Martinez sprang like a cat on the ball threw off balance and got Crisp at first. He showed quickness and a strong, accurate arm on that play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 10, 2008
Vacuuming Up Balls
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Soccer Dad notes the Orioles posted a .772 DER in their first seven games. They're like a black hole for balls in play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 04, 2008
Rare Bad Play
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Orlando Cabrera made a rare poor play for the White Sox. With a man on first, he ranged to his right for a ground ball off the bat of Polanco. Cabrera got there in time, but the ball skipped under his glove. He appeared to be looking for a higher bounce. The official scorer gave Polanco a hit, and a double play cleared the extra runner. The White Sox and Tigers are tied at five in the top of the fifth. Carlos Quentin hit his first home run for the pale hose.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Menance in the Outfield
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Sox Machine notes the biggest threat to Jerry Owens's health after he returns to the White Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 03, 2008
Cool Hand Youk
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The Soxaholix makes Kevin Youkilis the center of water cooler talk today for passing Steve Garvey for errorless games at first base. Keep in mind, however, that first basemen don't make a lot of errors in general. As for range, Kevin is a bit above average.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:29 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 01, 2008
Error Free
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Kevin Youkilis can tie a fielding record tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 25, 2008
Ellsbury Leather
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Emil Brown hits a ball to the warning track in straight away center than Ellsbury catches with a backward leap. He crashes into the wall but holds on to the ball. The NESN announcers are calling it a great catch, but I think he leaped too early. If he stays on his feet and keeps running I think he gets under the ball. Still, and out's and out, and it must be difficult playing under that white ceiling.

The A's go 1-2-3 in the eighth. The Sox have three outs to get one run. Lowell, Moss and Varitek are due up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Giambi, First Baseman
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Giambi receives praise for his play at first this spring:

"The thing I've learned is that you have to change your training," Giambi said. "It stunk going through everything, but it all was a blessing in disguise. Even tearing my foot."

Giambi did much more sprint work this off-season and worked on explosive techniques that made him quicker on his feet.

"A few years ago I would have said there was no chance I'd be training like I am now," said Giambi, who was batting .406 this spring. Tino Martinez is surprised at how well Giambi is playing.

"He's actually moving around better than I thought," Martinez said. "I think he was feeling tentative in the past. The whole key is moving your feet but not being afraid to make a mistake. You don't want to hold the ball when you got an easy out at second and just get the guy at first. In the past he would do that. Now he's not afraid to go and get lead runners. That really helps the pitching staff."

We'll see long that lasts during the regular season. Having Giambi at first, however, gives the Yankees their best offensive team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 19, 2008
Outfield Defense
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The Transaction Guy makes a good case for the Padres 2008 outfield defense hurting the pitching staff this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 24, 2008
The Jeter Debate
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Via WasWatching, Joel Sherman joins the Jeter debate:

But what is being missed here is the preponderance of evidence against Jeter's defensive game. This is not just one set of Ivy League academics calling Jeter the majors' worst fielding shortstop. Just about every respected baseball statistician who has publicized results reveals Jeter is, at best, among the poorest defensive shortstops in the game.

You can attack methodology; you can say no perfect formula has yet been devised to encapsulate all the elements - positioning, speed of the hit ball, field conditions - into a single defensive statistic. However, these metrics keep evolving in sophistication. And Jeter keeps faring poorly in nearly every study year after year. Do you think there is a conspiracy? Do you think statisticians en masse have covertly met and made their quest to soil Jeter's glovely reputation?

"This study has been done a zillion times and the same conclusion is reached every time," an AL official said. "What do you think that means?"

For Jeter devotees, it means assailing the geeks. But as an AL executive said, "this isn't geeks vs. jocks. This is myth vs. reality." In reality, most baseball officials laugh off the three Gold Gloves Jeter won from 2004-06 in the way they do the four Bernie Williams won as having more to do with offense, fame and winning than with actual defense.

I'm very glad this debate is now fully out in the open. It's easy to dismiss one study, but when all of them point in the same direction, year after year, people start to notice. It looks like one of those people was indeed Jeter:

Perhaps the strongest condemnation came from Jeter, who said, "Last year, I didn't have a good year defensively."

It doesn't sound like much, especially since Jeter limited a serial inadequacy to just 2007. Except Jeter is not one to ever publicly apologize for, or criticize, his own game. But this is more than words with Jeter. He rededicated himself in the offseason with exercises designed to improve his lateral quickness and first-step explosiveness. One Yankee official saw this version of Jeter and said, "He set the clock back five years."

"I'm a lot quicker, a lot more agile," Jeter said. "Only time will tell, but that is what I worked on."

Actions speak louder than words.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
February 23, 2008
Jeter in the Outfield
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Via WasWatching, Jeter says no to a position shift:

Many scouts believe Jeter would be able to make an easy transition to the outfield, where his speed, strong arm and terrific instincts would make him a natural. Asked about the possibility, Jeter waves off the question before it's finished.

"I ain't going out there," Jeter said. "It's not as easy as it sounds to just pick up a glove and say, 'I'm going to be an outfielder today.' It doesn't work like that."

As for his current position, Jeter feels he's a better shortstop now than he was during the early years of his career thanks to experience. By making the necessary adjustments on a regular basis, Jeter is constantly addressing what he feels are his strengths and weaknesses in the field. Just don't ask him what those are.

"I'll leave that to the computers to figure out," he said with a grin.

He doesn't move to his left or right well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
February 21, 2008
Michael on Jeter
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Via MLB FanHouse, Derek Jeter and Gene Michael talk about the shortstop's poor range:

"Maybe it was a computer glitch," the three-time Gold Glove winner said of the report. But Jeter just didn't laugh this one off. He defended himself, saying, "Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Jeter, 33, pointed out you can get the exact same ground ball off the exact same pitcher and there could be an average runner or there could be Ichiro running. "How can you compute that?" he asked.

You can't. That's one reason Yankees senior advisor Gene Michael was infuriated by the University of Pennsylvania report.

"Something like that is a disgrace," the scout said. "It made me ill when I read that article. First of all, what pitching staff was out there? Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls.

"You simply can't do that by those charts, that's a bunch of baloney," Michael added. "It's disgraceful. You have to use a scout's eye to determine range."

Of course, we do take most of those factors into account. For every Ichiro running to first, there's a Jason Giambi. Over time, those factors even out. As for the pitching staff, the Yankees have undergone numerous changes over the last few years, and somehow Derek stays at the bottom of the pack.

I'd also like to comment on one thing from the FanHouse post (emphasis added):

Baseball's different. It's very easy to watch Jeter fly deep in the hole, plant, pivot and gun a runner and come to the conclusion that he's a great fielder. It's a pretty play, full of athleticism and grace and that's more memorable than a grounder that finds a hole or a double play that doesn't get turned. That doesn't make it more important, though. These kinds of analysis help us understand baseball in its fullest context. That context, however, doesn't matter much when Jeter cuts off a poor throw, flips it to the plate and saves a run.
Jeter Jump Throw

04 September 2006: New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter makes a throw to 1st base but is unable to get Kansas City Royals center fielder Joey Gathright out in the 5th inning at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
Photo: Icon SMI

If Jeter actually planted and pivoted in the hole, I think his numbers would be better. What he actually does is stop, jump and throw, using only his arm to get the ball to first. His movement is more like a skater transferring kinetic energy from the horizontal to the vertical with a toe pick. None of that energy is being used to hurl the ball toward first base. I cringe every time he tries to make that play, because no matter how good it looks, it's the wrong way to throw. If he stopped, planted and used his whole body to send the ball across the diamond, he'd make a stronger and more accurate throw. How many times does that toss pull the first baseman off the bag or sail over his head? David Eckstein can make the plant and throw play, why can't the bigger and stronger Jeter?

Update: Tango's take.

Update: 100% Injury Rate chimes in. He points to some old data that shows Jeter wasn't the best fielding shortstop on his team, with the same pitching staff. The same things shows up in 2007 PMR. As a team, the Yankees shortstops produced 38 fewer outs than expected. Jeter, however, produced forty fewer outs than expected! So the replacements were a bit better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
February 17, 2008
Left Side Defense
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One of the things to come out of the talk yesterday was that Troy Tulowitzki seemed to be covering for Garrett Atkins defensive woes. Tulowitzki produced 50 outs more than expected in 2007, while Atkins missed about 48 outs. You can see from their ground ball PMR graphs, that the difference happens in the hole:

Garrett Atkins Grounders 2007

Atkins, 2007

Tulowitzki 2007

Alan Schwarz, during the talk, wondered if this was more a reflection of strategy on the part of the Rockies as opposed a Garrett Atkins fielding deficiency. Apparently not.

Last spring, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had to take it. This year, as a rich, budding star, he's dishing it out.

Saturday, Tulo's target was third baseman Garrett Atkins.

"Atkins doesn't do much over there," Tulowitzki said with a sly grin. "He kind of just stands there and watches balls."

Tulowitzki was kidding, but there's a element of truth there. Note that the Rockies didn't lock up Atkins long term.

Hat tip, Purple Row.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 26, 2007
Does a Good Offense Improve a Defense?
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One criticism leveled at the Probabilistic Model of Range this year is that due to building the models based on the visiting team fielders, teams with good offenses get a bonus defensively. The example given is the Yankees, but there are other high offense teams ranked high in terms of PMR.

The idea is that since the Yankees hit well, their opponents DER must by definition be low. A ball put in play by the Yankees must have a lower probability of being turned into an out. This causes the model to underestimate the fielding ability of opponents, and over estimate the fielding ability of the Yankees. If the model contained one parameter, ballpark, then this would be absolutely true. However, there are six parameters, including a vector indicating the direction of the ball. I propose that the Yankees hit better than their opponents not because a random ball in play has a higher probability of falling for a hit, but because the Yankees do a better job of hitting balls where they are tough to field.

The following table shows the number of ground balls hit by the Yankees and their opponents by vector:

Vector Yankees Opponents Predicted DER
254 4 0.000
261214 0.000
273726 0.766
2811857 0.898
29175118 0.706
30193156 0.671
31148119 0.844
3211182 0.934
33164136 0.868
34114105 0.585
3510074 0.535
36117124 0.624
37101108 0.617
38116150 0.838
39119131 0.865
40163139 0.764
41165174 0.550
42110130 0.688
436155 0.847
443540 0.572
457 13 0.010
465 5 0.000

As you can see, the low probability vectors are 29-30, the shortstop hole, 34-37, up the middle, 41-42, the second base hole, and 44, right down the first base line. I'm not looking at the foul vectors where a ball is always a hit. Breaking these down:

Ground ballsYankeesOpponents
In Holes11101029
At Fielders882895

So the Yankees hit more grounders where they are less likely to be fielded, and fewer grounders where they are more likely to be fielded than their opponents. Later I want to look at how the Yankees field home and road. If they field much better at home, then the objection still my have some validity.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 25, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2007
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To complete the survery of range, here are how pitchers rank. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Astros 4530 205 183.71 0.045 0.041 111.59
Padres 4476 243 228.50 0.054 0.051 106.35
Rockies 4599 218 206.59 0.047 0.045 105.52
Indians 4548 181 171.92 0.040 0.038 105.28
Mets 4362 173 164.61 0.040 0.038 105.09
White Sox 4545 196 186.52 0.043 0.041 105.08
Yankees 4511 181 172.92 0.040 0.038 104.67
Tigers 4486 167 159.73 0.037 0.036 104.55
Red Sox 4226 149 142.79 0.035 0.034 104.35
Mariners 4535 174 167.33 0.038 0.037 103.99
Blue Jays 4349 200 194.00 0.046 0.045 103.09
Phillies 4505 193 187.33 0.043 0.042 103.02
Pirates 4608 204 200.82 0.044 0.044 101.58
Cubs 4177 166 163.95 0.040 0.039 101.25
Rangers 4518 197 195.59 0.044 0.043 100.72
Braves 4404 206 204.60 0.047 0.046 100.69
Devil Rays 4378 148 147.07 0.034 0.034 100.63
Twins 4384 150 152.30 0.034 0.035 98.49
Orioles 4403 160 162.54 0.036 0.037 98.44
Nationals 4591 167 170.78 0.036 0.037 97.78
Marlins 4491 178 182.52 0.040 0.041 97.52
Angels 4325 143 146.86 0.033 0.034 97.37
Giants 4467 159 163.87 0.036 0.037 97.03
Diamondbacks 4351 207 213.40 0.048 0.049 97.00
Cardinals 4587 158 166.21 0.034 0.036 95.06
Athletics 4499 165 174.70 0.037 0.039 94.45
Brewers 4392 179 192.64 0.041 0.044 92.92
Dodgers 4310 189 205.96 0.044 0.048 91.76
Reds 4533 162 180.13 0.036 0.040 89.93
Royals 4528 151 179.20 0.033 0.040 84.27

The Padres not only induce the most predicted outs back to the pitcher, they exceed those outs by a great deal. Maddux is one reason:

Individual Pitcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (400 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Chris Sampson 414 24 15.23 0.058 0.037 157.55
Matt Cain 571 26 19.79 0.046 0.035 131.37
Chad Durbin 417 15 11.48 0.036 0.028 130.65
Shaun Marcum 456 27 20.71 0.059 0.045 130.37
Steve Trachsel 549 35 26.89 0.064 0.049 130.17
Mike Mussina 512 27 20.84 0.053 0.041 129.54
Woody Williams 632 36 27.90 0.057 0.044 129.04
Aaron Cook 572 37 28.69 0.065 0.050 128.98
Miguel Batista 615 26 20.17 0.042 0.033 128.92
Jon Garland 705 34 26.84 0.048 0.038 126.66
Kelvim Escobar 572 17 13.58 0.030 0.024 125.21
Wandy Rodriguez 536 21 16.87 0.039 0.031 124.46
Greg Maddux 681 53 42.87 0.078 0.063 123.64
Ervin Santana 457 13 10.59 0.028 0.023 122.72
Jake Peavy 571 30 24.58 0.053 0.043 122.03
Brandon Webb 692 53 43.55 0.077 0.063 121.69
Mike Bacsik 414 15 12.35 0.036 0.030 121.42
Tim Wakefield 600 24 19.83 0.040 0.033 121.05
Carlos Zambrano 610 30 25.00 0.049 0.041 119.98
Javier Vazquez 583 28 23.46 0.048 0.040 119.34
Adam Eaton 525 22 18.49 0.042 0.035 119.00
Nate Robertson 573 27 22.77 0.047 0.040 118.56
John Danks 427 15 12.83 0.035 0.030 116.94
James Shields 615 26 22.26 0.042 0.036 116.80
Justin Verlander 577 17 14.69 0.029 0.025 115.76
Chien-Ming Wang 643 34 29.61 0.053 0.046 114.84
Carlos Silva 699 27 23.54 0.039 0.034 114.70
John Smoltz 586 30 26.16 0.051 0.045 114.69
Dustin McGowan 484 31 27.18 0.064 0.056 114.04
Justin Germano 426 21 18.42 0.049 0.043 114.04
Ted Lilly 586 24 21.09 0.041 0.036 113.81
Dontrelle Willis 667 39 34.32 0.058 0.051 113.64
Kyle Davies 432 16 14.08 0.037 0.033 113.60
Sergio Mitre 522 29 25.58 0.056 0.049 113.35
Daisuke Matsuzaka 555 24 21.21 0.043 0.038 113.18
Joe Blanton 750 28 25.10 0.037 0.033 111.54
Jake Westbrook 481 27 24.51 0.056 0.051 110.17
Andy Sonnanstine 408 14 12.81 0.034 0.031 109.28
Matt Chico 548 16 14.77 0.029 0.027 108.33
Jamie Moyer 633 30 27.83 0.047 0.044 107.81
Johan Santana 555 24 22.27 0.043 0.040 107.75
Tom Glavine 674 27 25.15 0.040 0.037 107.37
C.C. Sabathia 701 24 22.47 0.034 0.032 106.80
Brett Tomko 415 16 14.99 0.039 0.036 106.77
Jarrod Washburn 627 20 18.81 0.032 0.030 106.33
Noah Lowry 502 23 21.69 0.046 0.043 106.02
Jeremy Guthrie 527 21 19.85 0.040 0.038 105.81
Chris Capuano 456 28 26.47 0.061 0.058 105.77
Fausto Carmona 654 36 34.14 0.055 0.052 105.43
Roy Halladay 722 36 34.31 0.050 0.048 104.94
Mark Buehrle 648 33 31.47 0.051 0.049 104.86
Bronson Arroyo 661 27 25.79 0.041 0.039 104.71
David Bush 594 24 23.12 0.040 0.039 103.80
Kyle Kendrick 401 20 19.29 0.050 0.048 103.69
David Wells 545 20 19.32 0.037 0.035 103.52
Erik Bedard 431 17 16.46 0.039 0.038 103.29
Jeff Suppan 708 34 32.99 0.048 0.047 103.05
Barry Zito 608 21 20.40 0.035 0.034 102.94
Jason Marquis 626 25 24.34 0.040 0.039 102.70
Jeff Francis 662 30 29.40 0.045 0.044 102.04
Kameron Loe 464 28 27.74 0.060 0.060 100.93
Livan Hernandez 704 38 37.71 0.054 0.054 100.78
Paul Maholm 583 30 29.99 0.051 0.051 100.02
Matt Morris 693 28 28.14 0.040 0.041 99.50
Kip Wells 522 20 20.10 0.038 0.039 99.48
Ian Snell 606 20 20.14 0.033 0.033 99.33
Odalis Perez 494 18 18.33 0.036 0.037 98.20
John Maine 527 17 17.37 0.032 0.033 97.86
Cole Hamels 495 23 23.78 0.046 0.048 96.70
Chad Gaudin 603 21 21.76 0.035 0.036 96.51
A.J. Burnett 414 15 15.67 0.036 0.038 95.73
Mike Maroth 417 17 17.85 0.041 0.043 95.22
Tim Hudson 722 41 43.25 0.057 0.060 94.81
Felix Hernandez 567 26 27.45 0.046 0.048 94.73
Jered Weaver 514 18 19.04 0.035 0.037 94.51
Brian Bannister 540 20 21.19 0.037 0.039 94.40
Oliver Perez 483 11 11.65 0.023 0.024 94.40
Micah Owings 461 22 23.32 0.048 0.051 94.34
Kyle Lohse 615 22 23.48 0.036 0.038 93.71
Jeff Weaver 511 10 10.72 0.020 0.021 93.32
Chuck James 484 15 16.10 0.031 0.033 93.18
Tom Gorzelanny 642 24 25.76 0.037 0.040 93.18
Roy Oswalt 675 36 38.80 0.053 0.057 92.79
Adam Wainwright 654 28 30.29 0.043 0.046 92.44
Jose Contreras 647 22 23.80 0.034 0.037 92.43
Scott Kazmir 534 16 17.46 0.030 0.033 91.64
Lenny DiNardo 430 15 16.48 0.035 0.038 91.04
Derek Lowe 604 27 29.69 0.045 0.049 90.95
Andy Pettitte 690 26 28.59 0.038 0.041 90.93
Paul Byrd 686 21 23.15 0.031 0.034 90.72
Aaron Harang 642 23 25.44 0.036 0.040 90.42
Doug Davis 597 32 36.17 0.054 0.061 88.47
Scott Olsen 578 21 23.75 0.036 0.041 88.41
Josh Fogg 556 21 23.79 0.038 0.043 88.26
Scott Baker 454 13 14.84 0.029 0.033 87.58
Rich Hill 527 21 23.98 0.040 0.046 87.57
Brad Penny 643 25 28.93 0.039 0.045 86.41
Kevin Millwood 571 16 18.75 0.028 0.033 85.32
John Lackey 668 24 28.71 0.036 0.043 83.60
Braden Looper 581 19 23.06 0.033 0.040 82.41
Chad Billingsley 400 17 20.94 0.043 0.052 81.18
Josh Beckett 566 11 13.68 0.019 0.024 80.41
Vicente Padilla 407 12 15.11 0.029 0.037 79.44
Chris Young 448 11 14.27 0.025 0.032 77.08
Claudio Vargas 419 14 18.20 0.033 0.043 76.91
Edwin Jackson 516 12 15.91 0.023 0.031 75.43
Jeremy Bonderman 533 14 18.78 0.026 0.035 74.53
Boof Bonser 539 14 18.92 0.026 0.035 74.00
Jorge de la Rosa 431 11 15.32 0.026 0.036 71.79
Gil Meche 663 20 28.05 0.030 0.042 71.31
Julian Tavarez 455 11 15.86 0.024 0.035 69.38
Brad Thompson 451 10 14.58 0.022 0.032 68.61
Matt Belisle 570 15 22.66 0.026 0.040 66.18
Dan Haren 661 17 26.01 0.026 0.039 65.36
Daniel Cabrera 608 13 20.82 0.021 0.034 62.44
Ben Sheets 431 11 19.19 0.026 0.045 57.31
Curt Schilling 485 7 12.87 0.014 0.027 54.40

Peavy is also very good, however. Looking at Schilling's low ranking should give his opponents a clue as to his weakness next season. Bunting for hits against Curt might be a very good idea.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 21, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2007
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Fielding by catchers isn't the most important aspect of the job, and the number of outs attributed to the postion are few. But for completeness, here are the tables for the position. First, teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Cardinals 4587 57 47.59 0.012 0.010 119.76
Braves 4404 64 55.33 0.015 0.013 115.67
Rockies 4599 76 66.39 0.017 0.014 114.48
Yankees 4511 66 59.51 0.015 0.013 110.90
Dodgers 4310 68 62.43 0.016 0.014 108.91
Angels 4325 39 35.96 0.009 0.008 108.47
Marlins 4491 57 53.73 0.013 0.012 106.09
Nationals 4591 60 57.21 0.013 0.012 104.87
Astros 4530 58 55.59 0.013 0.012 104.33
Tigers 4486 50 47.96 0.011 0.011 104.25
White Sox 4545 50 49.10 0.011 0.011 101.82
Giants 4467 58 57.06 0.013 0.013 101.64
Cubs 4177 51 50.42 0.012 0.012 101.15
Reds 4533 74 73.68 0.016 0.016 100.44
Blue Jays 4349 50 49.79 0.011 0.011 100.42
Royals 4528 46 45.90 0.010 0.010 100.22
Rangers 4518 48 48.05 0.011 0.011 99.90
Red Sox 4226 49 49.56 0.012 0.012 98.88
Devil Rays 4378 41 41.89 0.009 0.010 97.88
Indians 4548 36 37.23 0.008 0.008 96.70
Diamondbacks 4351 50 51.94 0.011 0.012 96.26
Padres 4476 59 61.48 0.013 0.014 95.97
Orioles 4403 37 38.96 0.008 0.009 94.97
Mariners 4535 42 44.86 0.009 0.010 93.63
Pirates 4608 51 54.75 0.011 0.012 93.15
Phillies 4505 56 60.25 0.012 0.013 92.95
Twins 4384 30 32.50 0.007 0.007 92.32
Athletics 4499 37 41.10 0.008 0.009 90.03
Mets 4362 50 56.67 0.011 0.013 88.22
Brewers 4392 51 59.91 0.012 0.014 85.13

The Mets are Brewers, who just completed a trade at the position, came out at the bottom team wise. New York might have been better off with Torrealba, at least fielding wise.

Individual Catcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Yadier Molina 2719 32 26.82 0.012 0.010 119.33
Brian McCann 3433 52 43.65 0.015 0.013 119.14
Yorvit Torrealba 2863 54 45.73 0.019 0.016 118.07
Miguel Olivo 3131 44 37.90 0.014 0.012 116.11
Jorge Posada 3484 50 43.52 0.014 0.012 114.90
Eric Munson 1012 17 15.02 0.017 0.015 113.21
Jeff Mathis 1421 21 18.96 0.015 0.013 110.78
Jose Molina 1431 16 14.52 0.011 0.010 110.18
Kelly Shoppach 1365 14 12.72 0.010 0.009 110.07
Gerald Laird 3118 37 33.82 0.012 0.011 109.40
Russell Martin 3687 60 55.76 0.016 0.015 107.60
Gregg Zaun 2559 32 29.91 0.013 0.012 106.98
Brad Ausmus 2728 33 31.07 0.012 0.011 106.22
Chris Iannetta 1613 20 18.83 0.012 0.012 106.20
Toby Hall 1002 10 9.45 0.010 0.009 105.82
Gary Bennett 1223 15 14.18 0.012 0.012 105.75
Jesus Flores 1258 21 19.87 0.017 0.016 105.69
Ivan Rodriguez 3216 41 38.98 0.013 0.012 105.19
John Buck 2879 30 28.52 0.010 0.010 105.18
Brian Schneider 3333 39 37.34 0.012 0.011 104.43
Mike Napoli 1814 12 11.53 0.007 0.006 104.09
Miguel Montero 1629 20 19.57 0.012 0.012 102.20
Javier Valentin 1494 20 19.72 0.013 0.013 101.42
Bengie Molina 3389 42 41.51 0.012 0.012 101.17
Mike Rabelo 1270 9 8.99 0.007 0.007 100.16
Dave Ross 2603 46 46.32 0.018 0.018 99.32
A.J. Pierzynski 3270 37 37.40 0.011 0.011 98.92
Ronny Paulino 3423 40 40.81 0.012 0.012 98.02
Michael Barrett 2291 33 33.76 0.014 0.015 97.74
Ramon Hernandez 2617 24 24.82 0.009 0.009 96.71
Josh Bard 2761 38 39.31 0.014 0.014 96.67
Mike Redmond 1461 11 11.42 0.008 0.008 96.30
Kurt Suzuki 1696 14 14.61 0.008 0.009 95.82
Paul Lo Duca 2922 33 34.63 0.011 0.012 95.29
Dioner Navarro 2901 25 26.29 0.009 0.009 95.09
Jason LaRue 1537 16 16.89 0.010 0.011 94.72
Jason Kendall 3448 31 32.85 0.009 0.010 94.37
Carlos Ruiz 2802 44 46.89 0.016 0.017 93.83
Jason Varitek 3061 33 35.49 0.011 0.012 92.99
Chris Snyder 2611 26 28.37 0.010 0.011 91.64
Johnny Estrada 2922 36 39.51 0.012 0.014 91.12
Kenji Johjima 3548 32 35.22 0.009 0.010 90.85
Rob Bowen 1268 11 12.14 0.009 0.010 90.59
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1201 11 12.25 0.009 0.010 89.78
Victor Martinez 3183 22 24.51 0.007 0.008 89.76
Joe Mauer 2331 16 18.22 0.007 0.008 87.83
Paul Bako 1290 8 9.42 0.006 0.007 84.90
Matt Treanor 1317 13 15.83 0.010 0.012 82.12
Jason Phillips 1025 7 8.88 0.007 0.009 78.82
Damian Miller 1367 13 17.73 0.010 0.013 73.30

Two of the old men, Posada and Ivan Rodriguez, are still cat like behind the plate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 17, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Firstbasemen, 2007
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Here's a look at the range of first basemen. First, the team table. The Yankees at least did a good job of improving their defense at the position:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Cardinals 4587 366 329.22 0.080 0.072 111.17
Yankees 4511 314 285.78 0.070 0.063 109.87
Giants 4467 325 304.72 0.073 0.068 106.66
Royals 4528 315 296.64 0.070 0.066 106.19
Padres 4476 311 295.59 0.069 0.066 105.21
Cubs 4177 283 269.44 0.068 0.065 105.03
Braves 4404 320 306.86 0.073 0.070 104.28
Angels 4325 308 296.32 0.071 0.069 103.94
Pirates 4608 315 304.66 0.068 0.066 103.39
Rockies 4599 336 326.21 0.073 0.071 103.00
Astros 4530 335 328.42 0.074 0.072 102.00
Red Sox 4226 323 321.65 0.076 0.076 100.42
Brewers 4392 294 293.80 0.067 0.067 100.07
Diamondbacks 4351 292 292.06 0.067 0.067 99.98
Devil Rays 4378 316 317.18 0.072 0.072 99.63
Blue Jays 4349 337 339.17 0.077 0.078 99.36
Orioles 4403 273 277.29 0.062 0.063 98.45
Athletics 4499 303 310.84 0.067 0.069 97.48
Dodgers 4310 285 293.60 0.066 0.068 97.07
Mariners 4535 297 308.37 0.065 0.068 96.31
Mets 4362 285 296.03 0.065 0.068 96.27
White Sox 4545 309 321.66 0.068 0.071 96.06
Indians 4548 295 307.96 0.065 0.068 95.79
Tigers 4486 296 310.16 0.066 0.069 95.44
Rangers 4518 283 297.18 0.063 0.066 95.23
Phillies 4505 302 317.82 0.067 0.071 95.02
Marlins 4491 291 307.52 0.065 0.068 94.63
Twins 4384 311 337.63 0.071 0.077 92.11
Reds 4533 263 290.87 0.058 0.064 90.42
Nationals 4591 270 299.99 0.059 0.065 90.00

It looks like the Nationals missed Nick Johnson's glove at first base. It's even more evident in the individual listing:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Doug Mientkiewicz 1427 109 92.24 0.076 0.065 118.17
Rich Aurilia 1115 70 59.31 0.063 0.053 118.02
Andy Phillips 1325 93 80.91 0.070 0.061 114.95
Albert Pujols 4220 349 308.82 0.083 0.073 113.01
Ryan Shealy 1336 88 78.66 0.066 0.059 111.87
Derrek Lee 3691 254 239.65 0.069 0.065 105.99
Casey Kotchman 3085 225 214.03 0.073 0.069 105.12
Adrian Gonzalez 4401 307 292.23 0.070 0.066 105.06
Tony Clark 1345 98 93.58 0.073 0.070 104.72
Scott Thorman 1859 126 120.75 0.068 0.065 104.35
Todd Helton 4170 306 293.61 0.073 0.070 104.22
Ryan Klesko 2504 190 183.08 0.076 0.073 103.78
Ben Broussard 1057 72 69.60 0.068 0.066 103.45
James Loney 2355 168 162.45 0.071 0.069 103.42
Ross Gload 2169 153 148.21 0.071 0.068 103.23
Carlos Pena 3708 277 268.41 0.075 0.072 103.20
Adam LaRoche 4141 283 274.52 0.068 0.066 103.09
Nick Swisher 1075 91 88.68 0.085 0.082 102.61
Kevin Youkilis 3208 253 249.42 0.079 0.078 101.44
Matt Stairs 1024 86 85.07 0.084 0.083 101.10
Lance Berkman 3315 229 229.22 0.069 0.069 99.91
Lyle Overbay 2887 221 221.32 0.077 0.077 99.86
Prince Fielder 4073 266 271.21 0.065 0.067 98.08
Conor Jackson 2647 173 176.80 0.065 0.067 97.85
Mark Teixeira 3404 240 246.41 0.071 0.072 97.40
Carlos Delgado 3649 244 251.39 0.067 0.069 97.06
Kevin Millar 2666 171 176.83 0.064 0.066 96.70
Robert Fick 1221 80 82.79 0.066 0.068 96.64
Aubrey Huff 1295 67 69.45 0.052 0.054 96.47
Ryan Howard 3871 263 274.29 0.068 0.071 95.88
Paul Konerko 3864 256 267.48 0.066 0.069 95.71
Richie Sexson 3137 201 210.24 0.064 0.067 95.61
Aaron Boone 1219 85 89.73 0.070 0.074 94.72
Brad Wilkerson 1444 82 86.94 0.057 0.060 94.32
Ryan Garko 3271 209 223.33 0.064 0.068 93.58
Sean Casey 3100 198 211.63 0.064 0.068 93.56
Dan Johnson 2679 166 177.43 0.062 0.066 93.56
Justin Morneau 3872 281 302.07 0.073 0.078 93.02
Mike Jacobs 2821 170 183.72 0.060 0.065 92.53
Jeff Conine 1595 86 94.78 0.054 0.059 90.74
Scott Hatteberg 2457 144 160.66 0.059 0.065 89.63
Nomar Garciaparra 1678 106 118.73 0.063 0.071 89.28
Dmitri Young 2808 162 184.81 0.058 0.066 87.66

Once again, Albert Pujols comes out on top among every day first basemen. If the Yankees had kept Miguel Cairo off first, they might have finished first as a team. Not only did Nomar not hit like a first baseman, he didn't even field well.

Correction: Cairo, not Cabrera.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders, 2007
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Here's something the Orioles excelled at during 2007, fielding by leftfielders:

Team Leftfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Orioles 4403 362 343.61 0.082 0.078 105.35
Indians 4548 339 325.23 0.075 0.072 104.23
Braves 4404 316 306.69 0.072 0.070 103.04
Rangers 4518 337 327.32 0.075 0.072 102.96
Nationals 4591 352 341.94 0.077 0.074 102.94
Yankees 4511 334 324.93 0.074 0.072 102.79
Brewers 4392 322 314.81 0.073 0.072 102.28
Mets 4362 324 317.91 0.074 0.073 101.91
Padres 4476 310 305.07 0.069 0.068 101.62
Royals 4528 373 367.39 0.082 0.081 101.53
Devil Rays 4378 339 334.26 0.077 0.076 101.42
Cubs 4177 341 337.65 0.082 0.081 100.99
Diamondbacks 4351 349 345.83 0.080 0.079 100.92
Blue Jays 4349 294 292.63 0.068 0.067 100.47
Dodgers 4310 288 287.78 0.067 0.067 100.08
Angels 4325 340 341.60 0.079 0.079 99.53
Giants 4467 314 317.61 0.070 0.071 98.86
Tigers 4486 327 331.60 0.073 0.074 98.61
Marlins 4491 274 278.60 0.061 0.062 98.35
Astros 4530 285 290.69 0.063 0.064 98.04
Athletics 4499 337 344.34 0.075 0.077 97.87
White Sox 4545 318 325.73 0.070 0.072 97.63
Pirates 4608 303 310.81 0.066 0.067 97.49
Rockies 4599 317 326.69 0.069 0.071 97.03
Reds 4533 326 336.27 0.072 0.074 96.95
Twins 4384 334 345.60 0.076 0.079 96.64
Phillies 4505 282 295.91 0.063 0.066 95.30
Red Sox 4226 284 299.24 0.067 0.071 94.91
Cardinals 4587 320 346.16 0.070 0.075 92.44
Mariners 4535 288 315.31 0.064 0.070 91.34

Among individuals, Matt Diaz had a career year with the glove as well as the bat.

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Matt Diaz 2064 155 142.05 0.075 0.069 109.11
Jose Cruz 1099 89 82.33 0.081 0.075 108.10
Joey Gathright 1595 154 142.69 0.097 0.089 107.93
Jay Payton 2776 231 214.85 0.083 0.077 107.52
David Dellucci 1210 97 91.32 0.080 0.075 106.22
Scott Hairston 1689 115 108.48 0.068 0.064 106.01
Wily Mo Pena 1126 68 64.97 0.060 0.058 104.66
Ryan Church 2304 196 188.59 0.085 0.082 103.93
Geoff Jenkins 2985 243 234.55 0.081 0.079 103.60
Carl Crawford 3623 286 276.65 0.079 0.076 103.38
Hideki Matsui 3091 214 207.16 0.069 0.067 103.30
Adam Lind 1969 137 132.73 0.070 0.067 103.22
Jason Michaels 1567 117 113.59 0.075 0.072 103.00
Reggie Willits 1557 151 146.83 0.097 0.094 102.84
Reed Johnson 1518 108 105.47 0.071 0.069 102.40
Emil Brown 1909 155 153.22 0.081 0.080 101.16
Eric Byrnes 2924 239 236.90 0.082 0.081 100.89
Alfonso Soriano 3074 245 243.79 0.080 0.079 100.50
Rob Mackowiak 1468 98 97.52 0.067 0.066 100.49
Kenny Lofton 1189 82 82.28 0.069 0.069 99.66
Willie Harris 1873 138 139.21 0.074 0.074 99.13
Ryan Ludwick 1011 86 86.83 0.085 0.086 99.04
Frank Catalanotto 1540 98 99.82 0.064 0.065 98.18
Jason Bay 3974 266 271.62 0.067 0.068 97.93
Luis Gonzalez 3008 192 196.31 0.064 0.065 97.81
Matt Holliday 4331 296 303.68 0.068 0.070 97.47
Carlos Lee 4244 261 268.68 0.061 0.063 97.14
Moises Alou 2105 138 142.80 0.066 0.068 96.64
Shannon Stewart 3606 277 287.12 0.077 0.080 96.47
Kevin Mench 1139 55 57.41 0.048 0.050 95.81
Craig Monroe 2512 166 174.76 0.066 0.070 94.99
Garret Anderson 2169 143 150.84 0.066 0.070 94.81
Scott Podsednik 1421 108 114.15 0.076 0.080 94.61
Josh Willingham 3653 211 223.26 0.058 0.061 94.51
Adam Dunn 3691 245 259.98 0.066 0.070 94.24
Terrmel Sledge 1192 77 82.16 0.065 0.069 93.72
Barry Bonds 2588 162 173.93 0.063 0.067 93.14
Jason Kubel 2153 159 172.31 0.074 0.080 92.27
Raul Ibanez 3559 224 243.95 0.063 0.069 91.82
Manny Ramirez 2925 182 198.85 0.062 0.068 91.53
Chris Duncan 2437 158 175.74 0.065 0.072 89.90
Pat Burrell 3176 176 198.31 0.055 0.062 88.75

There's no real surprises at the bottom of the list. Bonds, however, fell off quite a bit. He was average in 2006, but well below average in 2007. You can also see that there are few regular leftfielders. Only twelve players on the list were on the field at that position for at least 3000 balls in play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 15, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2007
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The following table presents probabilistic model of range data for team rightfielders:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Phillies 4505 363 328.75 0.081 0.073 110.42
Rangers 4518 341 317.30 0.075 0.070 107.47
Yankees 4511 341 328.36 0.076 0.073 103.85
Royals 4528 410 397.12 0.091 0.088 103.24
Nationals 4591 392 381.19 0.085 0.083 102.84
Indians 4548 313 304.41 0.069 0.067 102.82
Marlins 4491 379 368.66 0.084 0.082 102.81
Astros 4530 360 354.55 0.079 0.078 101.54
Brewers 4392 393 387.42 0.089 0.088 101.44
Diamondbacks 4351 336 331.82 0.077 0.076 101.26
Athletics 4499 330 327.02 0.073 0.073 100.91
Blue Jays 4349 281 278.50 0.065 0.064 100.90
Cubs 4177 303 301.51 0.073 0.072 100.50
Angels 4325 311 310.00 0.072 0.072 100.32
Padres 4476 331 331.59 0.074 0.074 99.82
Twins 4384 306 307.17 0.070 0.070 99.62
Tigers 4486 318 319.88 0.071 0.071 99.41
Red Sox 4226 287 289.46 0.068 0.068 99.15
Mets 4362 340 343.80 0.078 0.079 98.89
Orioles 4403 314 317.86 0.071 0.072 98.79
Braves 4404 331 336.45 0.075 0.076 98.38
Devil Rays 4378 309 314.27 0.071 0.072 98.32
Reds 4533 377 384.09 0.083 0.085 98.15
Pirates 4608 312 319.06 0.068 0.069 97.79
Cardinals 4587 316 323.36 0.069 0.070 97.72
White Sox 4545 345 354.49 0.076 0.078 97.32
Dodgers 4310 317 326.76 0.074 0.076 97.01
Giants 4467 338 349.14 0.076 0.078 96.81
Mariners 4535 305 323.57 0.067 0.071 94.26
Rockies 4599 296 316.91 0.064 0.069 93.40

As shown below, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino made quite the dynamic duo in rightfield for the Phillies. My uncle Anthony will not be happy with this list, however. He's a Yankees season ticket holder and he loves to tell me how much Bobby Abreu is afraid of the wall. It looks like he's still getting to lots of balls.

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Jayson Werth 1389 109 95.35 0.078 0.069 114.32
Shane Victorino 2837 229 210.62 0.081 0.074 108.72
Nick Swisher 1289 109 101.65 0.085 0.079 107.23
Carlos Quentin 1718 138 129.11 0.080 0.075 106.89
Franklin Gutierrez 1757 136 128.55 0.077 0.073 105.79
Nelson Cruz 1922 148 141.26 0.077 0.073 104.77
Luke Scott 2560 198 190.34 0.077 0.074 104.02
Bobby Abreu 4148 313 302.45 0.075 0.073 103.49
Corey Hart 2641 253 246.33 0.096 0.093 102.71
Austin Kearns 4356 375 366.16 0.086 0.084 102.41
Mark Teahen 3663 318 311.33 0.087 0.085 102.14
Alex Rios 3730 243 240.17 0.065 0.064 101.18
Travis Buck 1561 110 109.03 0.070 0.070 100.89
Jeremy Hermida 3035 247 245.88 0.081 0.081 100.46
Randy Winn 2686 209 208.12 0.078 0.077 100.42
Delmon Young 3463 252 251.16 0.073 0.073 100.33
Trot Nixon 2140 129 129.17 0.060 0.060 99.86
Michael Cuddyer 3749 256 256.95 0.068 0.069 99.63
Nick Markakis 4279 303 306.74 0.071 0.072 98.78
Magglio Ordonez 3835 261 264.54 0.068 0.069 98.66
Jeff Francoeur 4356 328 333.45 0.075 0.077 98.37
Jermaine Dye 3682 284 289.80 0.077 0.079 98.00
Shawn Green 2771 203 207.55 0.073 0.075 97.81
Vladimir Guerrero 2819 208 213.12 0.074 0.076 97.60
Matt Kemp 1851 129 132.50 0.070 0.072 97.36
Brian Giles 3199 216 223.54 0.068 0.070 96.63
J.D. Drew 3128 212 219.98 0.068 0.070 96.37
Ken Griffey Jr. 3649 291 302.61 0.080 0.083 96.16
Andre Ethier 2315 177 184.39 0.076 0.080 95.99
Xavier Nady 2390 162 168.97 0.068 0.071 95.88
Jose Guillen 4063 268 284.73 0.066 0.070 94.13
Juan Encarnacion 1983 125 132.90 0.063 0.067 94.06
Jack Cust 1205 79 84.93 0.066 0.070 93.01
Brad Hawpe 3851 247 267.07 0.064 0.069 92.48
Cliff Floyd 1185 69 78.30 0.058 0.066 88.12

Mark Teahen did a much better job of adjusting to rightfield than Ken Griffey, Jr. Of course, Junior is old and slow, and with all the injuries might be better off as a DH in AL at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:04 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
November 13, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2007
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The Washington Nationals and Ryan Zimmerman lead the way at third base.

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Nationals 4591 448 403.22 0.098 0.088 111.11
Cubs 4177 433 400.61 0.104 0.096 108.09
Giants 4467 434 404.44 0.097 0.091 107.31
Mets 4362 415 390.52 0.095 0.090 106.27
Red Sox 4226 377 356.44 0.089 0.084 105.77
Tigers 4486 446 426.09 0.099 0.095 104.67
Yankees 4511 370 354.08 0.082 0.078 104.50
Orioles 4403 423 406.97 0.096 0.092 103.94
Mariners 4535 423 407.60 0.093 0.090 103.78
Angels 4325 341 329.04 0.079 0.076 103.64
Cardinals 4587 468 459.66 0.102 0.100 101.81
Rangers 4518 385 378.51 0.085 0.084 101.72
Blue Jays 4349 376 371.58 0.086 0.085 101.19
Dodgers 4310 380 376.79 0.088 0.087 100.85
Braves 4404 364 364.35 0.083 0.083 99.90
Brewers 4392 369 371.77 0.084 0.085 99.26
Athletics 4499 399 405.18 0.089 0.090 98.47
Padres 4476 376 382.21 0.084 0.085 98.37
Astros 4530 401 409.30 0.089 0.090 97.97
Phillies 4505 433 442.07 0.096 0.098 97.95
Reds 4533 398 406.34 0.088 0.090 97.95
Royals 4528 378 387.55 0.083 0.086 97.54
Devil Rays 4378 361 370.39 0.082 0.085 97.46
White Sox 4545 426 438.55 0.094 0.096 97.14
Twins 4384 393 405.89 0.090 0.093 96.82
Pirates 4608 450 470.32 0.098 0.102 95.68
Indians 4548 400 421.84 0.088 0.093 94.82
Diamondbacks 4351 344 363.60 0.079 0.084 94.61
Marlins 4491 359 395.76 0.080 0.088 90.71
Rockies 4599 349 393.86 0.076 0.086 88.61

Given that David Wright scores better than Alex Rodriguez, if the Mets sign A-Rod, they should move him to first.

Individual Third Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Ryan Zimmerman 4528 443 398.27 0.098 0.088 111.23
Joe Crede 1184 125 113.00 0.106 0.095 110.62
Pedro Feliz 3718 373 341.20 0.100 0.092 109.32
Aramis Ramirez 3208 329 308.47 0.103 0.096 106.65
David Wright 4260 403 378.91 0.095 0.089 106.36
Mike Lowell 3890 342 321.90 0.088 0.083 106.24
Melvin Mora 3225 318 301.25 0.099 0.093 105.56
Maicer Izturis 1320 101 95.97 0.077 0.073 105.24
Brandon Inge 4062 400 380.28 0.098 0.094 105.18
Adrian Beltre 4036 379 362.12 0.094 0.090 104.66
Alex Rodriguez 4158 342 330.85 0.082 0.080 103.37
Scott Rolen 2983 296 287.61 0.099 0.096 102.92
Troy Glaus 2803 241 234.49 0.086 0.084 102.78
Ramon Vazquez 1671 152 148.03 0.091 0.089 102.68
Chone Figgins 2561 198 192.85 0.077 0.075 102.67
Hank Blalock 1082 83 80.94 0.077 0.075 102.55
Morgan Ensberg 1778 165 162.23 0.093 0.091 101.71
Travis Metcalf 1376 114 113.26 0.083 0.082 100.65
Chipper Jones 3231 278 277.24 0.086 0.086 100.27
Nomar Garciaparra 1103 87 86.81 0.079 0.079 100.21
Eric Chavez 2379 218 218.17 0.092 0.092 99.92
Akinori Iwamura 3174 260 261.21 0.082 0.082 99.54
Abraham Nunez 1792 205 206.06 0.114 0.115 99.49
Alex Gordon 3609 318 321.97 0.088 0.089 98.77
Edwin Encarnacion 3620 308 314.99 0.085 0.087 97.78
Chad Tracy 1152 96 98.41 0.083 0.085 97.55
Wilson Betemit 1235 94 96.37 0.076 0.078 97.54
Nick Punto 2518 239 245.24 0.095 0.097 97.46
Jack Hannahan 1122 93 96.13 0.083 0.086 96.74
Wes Helms 1394 116 120.21 0.083 0.086 96.50
Greg Dobbs 1309 111 115.27 0.085 0.088 96.29
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3415 279 292.44 0.082 0.086 95.40
Ty Wigginton 1995 186 195.65 0.093 0.098 95.07
Mike Lamb 1320 108 113.69 0.082 0.086 95.00
Mark Reynolds 2542 196 208.42 0.077 0.082 94.04
Jose Bautista 3413 317 338.96 0.093 0.099 93.52
Casey Blake 3743 325 351.27 0.087 0.094 92.52
Josh Fields 2234 200 217.44 0.090 0.097 91.98
Miguel Cabrera 4055 330 361.80 0.081 0.089 91.21
Ryan Braun 2886 211 239.01 0.073 0.083 88.28
Garrett Atkins 4136 305 352.46 0.074 0.085 86.53

The bottom three on the list pretty much define all-hit and no-field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 12, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2007
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Here are the PMR numbers for second basemen. First the team stats.

Team Second Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Reds 4533 517 470.97 0.114 0.104 109.77
Phillies 4505 507 486.30 0.113 0.108 104.26
Yankees 4511 551 528.65 0.122 0.117 104.23
Diamondbacks 4351 536 514.78 0.123 0.118 104.12
Rangers 4518 561 541.66 0.124 0.120 103.57
Twins 4384 508 491.17 0.116 0.112 103.43
Athletics 4499 610 592.38 0.136 0.132 102.97
Blue Jays 4349 589 574.80 0.135 0.132 102.47
Tigers 4486 505 494.43 0.113 0.110 102.14
Royals 4528 453 444.63 0.100 0.098 101.88
Red Sox 4226 524 515.37 0.124 0.122 101.67
Rockies 4599 558 548.82 0.121 0.119 101.67
Angels 4325 505 497.11 0.117 0.115 101.59
Mariners 4535 554 546.62 0.122 0.121 101.35
Nationals 4591 491 485.03 0.107 0.106 101.23
Indians 4548 564 557.26 0.124 0.123 101.21
Orioles 4403 534 528.33 0.121 0.120 101.07
White Sox 4545 467 466.32 0.103 0.103 100.15
Mets 4362 493 494.92 0.113 0.113 99.61
Cubs 4177 471 476.31 0.113 0.114 98.88
Brewers 4392 447 456.43 0.102 0.104 97.93
Braves 4404 521 533.24 0.118 0.121 97.70
Pirates 4608 428 440.07 0.093 0.096 97.26
Devil Rays 4378 493 507.26 0.113 0.116 97.19
Dodgers 4310 480 494.92 0.111 0.115 96.99
Cardinals 4587 509 525.15 0.111 0.114 96.92
Padres 4476 556 575.50 0.124 0.129 96.61
Marlins 4491 463 487.55 0.103 0.109 94.96
Giants 4467 450 478.37 0.101 0.107 94.07
Astros 4530 461 495.20 0.102 0.109 93.09

Looking at the teams at the bottom of the list, old second basemen are a detriment to defense. Not only did Biggio at second not help the Astros offensively, it hurt them defensively as well. Now for the individual players.

Individual Second Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Brandon Phillips 4288 488 442.09 0.114 0.103 110.38
Chase Utley 3571 410 386.97 0.115 0.108 105.95
Jose Valentin 1123 154 145.56 0.137 0.130 105.80
Orlando Hudson 3552 435 412.20 0.122 0.116 105.53
Esteban German 1248 117 111.06 0.094 0.089 105.35
Ian Kinsler 3581 459 438.84 0.128 0.123 104.59
Ronnie Belliard 3168 337 322.49 0.106 0.102 104.50
Robinson Cano 4380 532 509.76 0.121 0.116 104.36
Josh Barfield 3237 396 381.63 0.122 0.118 103.76
Mark Ellis 4119 561 540.88 0.136 0.131 103.72
Kaz Matsui 2634 335 323.55 0.127 0.123 103.54
Aaron Hill 4230 576 558.01 0.136 0.132 103.22
B.J. Upton 1305 174 168.87 0.133 0.129 103.04
Placido Polanco 3724 420 409.07 0.113 0.110 102.67
Jose Lopez 3899 486 475.59 0.125 0.122 102.19
Mike Fontenot 1343 152 148.82 0.113 0.111 102.14
Howie Kendrick 2222 276 270.90 0.124 0.122 101.88
Alexi Casilla 1262 144 141.60 0.114 0.112 101.70
Mark Grudzielanek 3021 312 307.78 0.103 0.102 101.37
Luis Castillo 3569 370 365.52 0.104 0.102 101.23
Tadahito Iguchi 3285 359 354.84 0.109 0.108 101.17
Geoff Blum 1481 178 176.84 0.120 0.119 100.65
Brian Roberts 4068 487 487.37 0.120 0.120 99.92
Dustin Pedroia 3365 417 417.32 0.124 0.124 99.92
Kevin Frandsen 1044 111 112.56 0.106 0.108 98.61
Danny Richar 1554 152 154.45 0.098 0.099 98.42
Jamey Carroll 1396 165 168.34 0.118 0.121 98.02
Adam Kennedy 2060 250 256.18 0.121 0.124 97.59
Freddy Sanchez 4064 378 387.80 0.093 0.095 97.47
Kelly Johnson 3474 412 423.58 0.119 0.122 97.27
Felipe Lopez 1208 129 134.76 0.107 0.112 95.72
Jeff Kent 3237 355 372.41 0.110 0.115 95.33
Mark DeRosa 2056 223 234.54 0.108 0.114 95.08
Marcus Giles 2883 364 383.01 0.126 0.133 95.04
Aaron Miles 1834 183 194.00 0.100 0.106 94.33
Dan Uggla 4310 438 466.30 0.102 0.108 93.93
Rickie Weeks 3003 301 320.45 0.100 0.107 93.93
Ray Durham 3183 320 343.81 0.101 0.108 93.08
Craig Biggio 2878 283 308.32 0.098 0.107 91.79
Brendan Harris 1206 110 124.59 0.091 0.103 88.29

Rickie Weeks and Dan Uggla need to be at the top of their offensive games to stay at this important defensive position.

Correction: Fixed caption on first table.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
November 11, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2007
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Here are the team rankings for centerfielders:

Team Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Mariners 4535 452 423.84 0.100 0.093 106.64
Red Sox 4226 481 452.99 0.114 0.107 106.18
Tigers 4486 468 445.78 0.104 0.099 104.98
Cubs 4177 414 400.21 0.099 0.096 103.45
Mets 4362 464 449.88 0.106 0.103 103.14
Braves 4404 431 421.41 0.098 0.096 102.28
Dodgers 4310 379 371.16 0.088 0.086 102.11
Rockies 4599 414 407.81 0.090 0.089 101.52
Padres 4476 409 404.18 0.091 0.090 101.19
Cardinals 4587 417 412.78 0.091 0.090 101.02
Reds 4533 455 451.03 0.100 0.100 100.88
Giants 4467 438 437.08 0.098 0.098 100.21
Nationals 4591 486 485.40 0.106 0.106 100.12
Royals 4528 424 425.45 0.094 0.094 99.66
Yankees 4511 468 470.38 0.104 0.104 99.49
Phillies 4505 418 421.10 0.093 0.093 99.26
Twins 4384 415 418.19 0.095 0.095 99.24
White Sox 4545 415 418.55 0.091 0.092 99.15
Angels 4325 441 445.14 0.102 0.103 99.07
Marlins 4491 453 458.41 0.101 0.102 98.82
Astros 4530 433 439.56 0.096 0.097 98.51
Blue Jays 4349 366 372.05 0.084 0.086 98.37
Pirates 4608 448 456.67 0.097 0.099 98.10
Diamondbacks 4351 406 414.42 0.093 0.095 97.97
Indians 4548 413 422.64 0.091 0.093 97.72
Rangers 4518 388 399.38 0.086 0.088 97.15
Athletics 4499 398 410.38 0.088 0.091 96.98
Orioles 4403 409 423.66 0.093 0.096 96.54
Devil Rays 4378 419 444.79 0.096 0.102 94.20
Brewers 4392 410 437.27 0.093 0.100 93.76

The Mariners come out on top of the Red Sox overall, but Boston has the better individual fielder:

Individual Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Coco Crisp 3560 408 377.29 0.115 0.106 108.14
Ichiro Suzuki 4233 424 394.49 0.100 0.093 107.48
Felix Pie 1169 120 112.75 0.103 0.096 106.43
Curtis Granderson 3995 424 402.22 0.106 0.101 105.42
Jacque Jones 1911 195 187.25 0.102 0.098 104.14
Darin Erstad 1117 105 101.18 0.094 0.091 103.77
Willy Taveras 2274 212 204.80 0.093 0.090 103.52
So Taguchi 1190 118 114.17 0.099 0.096 103.35
Ryan Church 1024 118 114.35 0.115 0.112 103.19
Andruw Jones 4080 396 385.38 0.097 0.094 102.76
Juan Pierre 4215 366 356.47 0.087 0.085 102.67
Josh Hamilton 1702 168 163.71 0.099 0.096 102.62
Carlos Beltran 3733 389 380.89 0.104 0.102 102.13
Johnny Damon 1211 121 118.84 0.100 0.098 101.82
Gary Matthews Jr. 3462 362 356.66 0.105 0.103 101.50
Mike Cameron 4016 365 360.75 0.091 0.090 101.18
Nook Logan 2398 248 245.18 0.103 0.102 101.15
Norris Hopper 1280 133 132.11 0.104 0.103 100.67
Dave Roberts 2334 224 222.68 0.096 0.095 100.59
Torii Hunter 4034 389 389.12 0.096 0.096 99.97
David DeJesus 4256 400 400.98 0.094 0.094 99.76
Alfredo Amezaga 2005 208 208.88 0.104 0.104 99.58
Jim Edmonds 2688 244 245.68 0.091 0.091 99.32
Aaron Rowand 4243 392 394.89 0.092 0.093 99.27
Hunter Pence 2636 260 261.99 0.099 0.099 99.24
Chris Duffy 1693 172 174.17 0.102 0.103 98.75
Melky Cabrera 3297 347 351.54 0.105 0.107 98.71
Rajai Davis 1162 124 125.75 0.107 0.108 98.60
Ryan Freel 1419 136 138.16 0.096 0.097 98.44
Vernon Wells 3813 321 326.31 0.084 0.086 98.37
Grady Sizemore 4383 399 407.44 0.091 0.093 97.93
Jerry Owens 2294 208 212.80 0.091 0.093 97.75
Chris Young 3824 354 364.20 0.093 0.095 97.20
B.J. Upton 2014 204 210.16 0.101 0.104 97.07
Mark Kotsay 1492 141 145.40 0.095 0.097 96.98
Nick Swisher 1515 139 144.94 0.092 0.096 95.90
Marlon Byrd 1541 114 119.68 0.074 0.078 95.25
Nate McLouth 1583 142 150.82 0.090 0.095 94.15
Kenny Lofton 2219 188 199.69 0.085 0.090 94.15
Corey Patterson 3225 281 298.69 0.087 0.093 94.08
Bill Hall 3159 295 314.62 0.093 0.100 93.76
Elijah Dukes 1010 82 92.28 0.081 0.091 88.86

Note to that the shift of Bill Hall to center worked neither offensively nor defensively. Andruw Jones may not be as good as he once was, but he can still go get the ball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
November 08, 2007
Moving Jeter
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Phil Allard calls for Jeter to be moved to another position based on his poor fielding.

I will say this again just so his fanboys won't think I am engaging in gratuitous Jeter bashing:

Derek Jeter is a hall of fame offensive player. He could end up over 3,500 hits in his career. He is a great and loyal Yankee. He's a smart player and an excellent hitter in the 2 hole. Yes. Yes. Yes.

But the point is the Yanks must entertain the idea of moving Jeter to another position. I suggest first base, but he could also handle the outfield or even 3B.

The right move for the Yankees would have been to move Jeter to center when they acquired A-Rod, and push Bernie to DH.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:19 PM | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0)
November 07, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops
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A number of people are suggesting new ways to construct the models, but before I try those methods I'd like to present the model used last year for the nine fielding positions, starting with shortstops. I am including something new, however, the full team at the position.

Team Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Rockies 4599 657 602.67 0.143 0.131 109.01
Twins 4384 556 523.57 0.127 0.119 106.19
Dodgers 4310 556 526.50 0.129 0.122 105.60
Royals 4528 543 514.33 0.120 0.114 105.57
Blue Jays 4349 567 544.69 0.130 0.125 104.09
Phillies 4505 531 516.45 0.118 0.115 102.82
Indians 4548 571 558.76 0.126 0.123 102.19
Pirates 4608 588 575.51 0.128 0.125 102.17
Red Sox 4226 500 492.12 0.118 0.116 101.60
Giants 4467 592 584.51 0.133 0.131 101.28
Diamondbacks 4351 493 488.99 0.113 0.112 100.82
Brewers 4392 501 497.76 0.114 0.113 100.65
Angels 4325 502 498.77 0.116 0.115 100.65
Marlins 4491 508 506.53 0.113 0.113 100.29
Mariners 4535 515 514.50 0.114 0.113 100.10
Orioles 4403 505 506.89 0.115 0.115 99.63
Astros 4530 561 563.85 0.124 0.124 99.49
Braves 4404 516 520.04 0.117 0.118 99.22
Cardinals 4587 539 544.84 0.118 0.119 98.93
Reds 4533 496 502.70 0.109 0.111 98.67
Athletics 4499 531 538.40 0.118 0.120 98.62
Padres 4476 536 544.49 0.120 0.122 98.44
Mets 4362 506 518.72 0.116 0.119 97.55
Cubs 4177 481 495.42 0.115 0.119 97.09
White Sox 4545 563 580.23 0.124 0.128 97.03
Tigers 4486 517 536.95 0.115 0.120 96.28
Rangers 4518 531 556.38 0.118 0.123 95.44
Devil Rays 4378 441 466.20 0.101 0.106 94.59
Nationals 4591 532 566.26 0.116 0.123 93.95
Yankees 4511 478 516.85 0.106 0.115 92.48

The above table will give you an idea of how the regular shortstop fit in the team context. You might imagine that Troy Tulowitzki was very good and Derek Jeter very bad:

Individual Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Troy Tulowitzki 4294 615 564.54 0.143 0.131 108.94
Tony F Pena 4010 480 449.44 0.120 0.112 106.80
Rafael Furcal 3574 473 445.28 0.132 0.125 106.23
John McDonald 2389 311 294.27 0.130 0.123 105.69
Jason Bartlett 3631 466 443.58 0.128 0.122 105.05
Jimmy Rollins 4447 528 511.62 0.119 0.115 103.20
Jack Wilson 3657 470 457.15 0.129 0.125 102.81
Yunel Escobar 1116 135 131.47 0.121 0.118 102.69
Jhonny Peralta 4206 512 502.37 0.122 0.119 101.92
Omar Vizquel 3739 504 497.76 0.135 0.133 101.25
Julio Lugo 3592 431 426.14 0.120 0.119 101.14
Adam Everett 1631 217 214.61 0.133 0.132 101.12
Orlando Cabrera 3997 462 456.91 0.116 0.114 101.11
Alex Gonzalez 2728 306 306.06 0.112 0.112 99.98
J.J. Hardy 3873 442 442.35 0.114 0.114 99.92
Cesar Izturis 1904 216 216.36 0.113 0.114 99.83
Bobby Crosby 2524 313 313.77 0.124 0.124 99.75
Stephen Drew 3877 434 435.25 0.112 0.112 99.71
Hanley Ramirez 4054 460 462.96 0.113 0.114 99.36
Ryan Theriot 2494 301 303.06 0.121 0.122 99.32
Khalil Greene 4206 504 507.64 0.120 0.121 99.28
Mark Loretta 1537 177 178.28 0.115 0.116 99.28
Yuniesky Betancourt 4103 464 467.60 0.113 0.114 99.23
Edgar Renteria 3067 361 365.13 0.118 0.119 98.87
Eric Bruntlett 1075 131 132.81 0.122 0.124 98.63
Royce Clayton 1538 200 202.77 0.130 0.132 98.63
Marco Scutaro 1064 122 124.14 0.115 0.117 98.28
Juan Uribe 4113 513 524.43 0.125 0.128 97.82
Jose Reyes 4295 500 511.97 0.116 0.119 97.66
David Eckstein 3002 349 357.57 0.116 0.119 97.60
Miguel Tejada 3317 363 373.46 0.109 0.113 97.20
Jeff Keppinger 1209 130 135.67 0.108 0.112 95.82
Carlos Guillen 3361 389 408.05 0.116 0.121 95.33
Felipe Lopez 2949 359 377.76 0.122 0.128 95.03
Michael Young 4083 476 504.85 0.117 0.124 94.29
Josh Wilson 1340 141 151.37 0.105 0.113 93.15
Brendan Harris 2336 234 253.12 0.100 0.108 92.45
Derek Jeter 4117 421 461.63 0.102 0.112 91.20
Cristian Guzman 1189 117 130.96 0.098 0.110 89.34

Troy really blew the competition away in terms of PMR, and Tony Pena did his best to make up for his poor hitting. And while New York enjoys two fine offensive shortstops, neither exactly sparkles with the glove. You can also see why the Tigers are moving Carlos Guillen to first. Michael Young may not be far behind him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
November 06, 2007
Thar's Gold in them thar Gloves!
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Rawlings presented the 2007 Gold Glove winners today. Maddux set a record with his 17th. David Wright won at third base, which I think would make it difficult for the Mets to move him to first if they sign A-Rod. Four outfielders won the NL award as there was a tie in the voting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:15 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
November 05, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Defense Behind Pitchers
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One thing PMR can measure is the luck of pitchers by looking at the predicted DER and actual DER behind them. The following table rates pitchers with at least 300 balls in play against them:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Defense Behind Pitchers, 2007. Visit Smoothed Distance Model. 2007 Data Only
Pitcher Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Chien-Ming Wang NYY 643 448 414.94 0.697 0.645 107.97
Jeremy Guthrie Bal 527 375 356.60 0.712 0.677 105.16
Dustin McGowan Tor 484 346 330.21 0.715 0.682 104.78
Sean Marshall ChC 330 231 221.12 0.700 0.670 104.47
Roger Clemens NYY 307 215 205.94 0.700 0.671 104.40
Brian Bannister KC 540 393 376.52 0.728 0.697 104.38
Jarrod Washburn Sea 627 440 422.32 0.702 0.674 104.19
Mike Bacsik Was 414 291 279.42 0.703 0.675 104.14
Tom Glavine NYM 674 474 455.80 0.703 0.676 103.99
Jason Hirsh Col 340 252 242.53 0.741 0.713 103.91
Ted Lilly ChC 586 427 411.59 0.729 0.702 103.74
Braden Looper StL 581 416 401.23 0.716 0.691 103.68
Chris Sampson Hou 414 292 281.66 0.705 0.680 103.67
Cole Hamels Phi 495 348 336.00 0.703 0.679 103.57
Brad Penny LAD 643 450 435.62 0.700 0.677 103.30
Dontrelle Willis Fla 667 442 428.96 0.663 0.643 103.04
Yovani Gallardo Mil 318 216 209.67 0.679 0.659 103.02
Jesse Litsch Tor 371 259 251.51 0.698 0.678 102.98
Jason Bergmann Was 332 248 241.02 0.747 0.726 102.90
Anthony Reyes StL 332 236 229.52 0.711 0.691 102.82
Curt Schilling Bos 485 338 328.75 0.697 0.678 102.82
Chuck James Atl 484 352 342.43 0.727 0.707 102.80
Nate Robertson Det 573 389 378.44 0.679 0.660 102.79
Aaron Cook Col 572 401 390.44 0.701 0.683 102.70
Tim Lincecum SF 389 277 269.87 0.712 0.694 102.64
Jon Garland CWS 705 493 480.70 0.699 0.682 102.56
Steve Trachsel Bal 491 351 342.47 0.715 0.697 102.49
Daisuke Matsuzaka Bos 555 384 375.16 0.692 0.676 102.36
Noah Lowry SF 502 349 340.97 0.695 0.679 102.35
Tim Hudson Atl 722 504 492.65 0.698 0.682 102.30
C.C. Sabathia Cle 701 476 465.40 0.679 0.664 102.28
Chad Durbin Det 417 304 297.37 0.729 0.713 102.23
Carlos Zambrano ChC 610 439 429.45 0.720 0.704 102.22
Micah Owings Ari 461 332 324.88 0.720 0.705 102.19
James Shields TB 615 435 425.93 0.707 0.693 102.13
Erik Bedard Bal 431 306 299.70 0.710 0.695 102.10
Jake Westbrook Cle 481 329 322.43 0.684 0.670 102.04
John Lackey LAA 668 459 450.14 0.687 0.674 101.97
Oliver Perez NYM 483 341 334.57 0.706 0.693 101.92
Justin Verlander Det 577 407 399.34 0.705 0.692 101.92
Barry Zito SF 608 441 432.73 0.725 0.712 101.91
Roy Halladay Tor 722 497 488.79 0.688 0.677 101.68
Jason Marquis ChC 626 440 432.86 0.703 0.691 101.65
Zack Greinke KC 350 239 235.18 0.683 0.672 101.63
Buddy Carlyle Atl 335 229 225.46 0.684 0.673 101.57
A.J. Burnett Tor 414 301 296.47 0.727 0.716 101.53
Johan Santana Min 555 394 388.14 0.710 0.699 101.51
Jake Peavy SD 571 409 403.20 0.716 0.706 101.44
Kyle Kendrick Phi 401 284 280.03 0.708 0.698 101.42
Greg Maddux SD 681 466 459.63 0.684 0.675 101.39
Tim Wakefield Bos 600 425 419.24 0.708 0.699 101.37
Fausto Carmona Cle 654 463 456.92 0.708 0.699 101.33
Kelvim Escobar LAA 572 387 382.00 0.677 0.668 101.31
Joe Blanton Oak 750 520 513.28 0.693 0.684 101.31
Rich Hill ChC 527 378 373.19 0.717 0.708 101.29
Odalis Perez KC 494 325 320.93 0.658 0.650 101.27
Matt Morris SF 473 315 311.16 0.666 0.658 101.23
Carlos Silva Min 699 485 479.14 0.694 0.685 101.22
Adam Eaton Phi 525 356 351.83 0.678 0.670 101.19
Felix Hernandez Sea 567 372 367.73 0.656 0.649 101.16
Wandy Rodriguez Hou 536 366 361.86 0.683 0.675 101.14
Vicente Padilla Tex 407 270 266.96 0.663 0.656 101.14
Aaron Harang Cin 642 451 446.11 0.702 0.695 101.10
Livan Hernandez Ari 704 488 482.76 0.693 0.686 101.08
Orlando Hernandez NYM 388 299 295.82 0.771 0.762 101.08
Jamie Moyer Phi 633 432 427.41 0.682 0.675 101.08
Ian Snell Pit 606 413 408.93 0.682 0.675 101.00
Andy Pettitte NYY 690 457 452.68 0.662 0.656 100.96
Tom Gorzelanny Pit 642 439 435.75 0.684 0.679 100.75
Matt Albers Hou 362 247 245.52 0.682 0.678 100.60
Lenny DiNardo Oak 430 302 300.28 0.702 0.698 100.57
John Danks CWS 427 289 287.39 0.677 0.673 100.56
Mark Hendrickson LAD 395 262 260.58 0.663 0.660 100.55
Jorge Sosa NYM 361 256 254.94 0.709 0.706 100.42
Brandon Webb Ari 692 480 478.35 0.694 0.691 100.34
Carlos Villanueva Mil 318 229 228.36 0.720 0.718 100.28
John Maine NYM 527 377 376.07 0.715 0.714 100.25
Justin Germano SD 426 302 301.31 0.709 0.707 100.23
Chad Billingsley LAD 400 279 278.70 0.697 0.697 100.11
Ben Sheets Mil 431 307 306.74 0.712 0.712 100.09
Roy Oswalt Hou 675 456 456.10 0.676 0.676 99.98
Jered Weaver LAA 514 348 348.13 0.677 0.677 99.96
Mike Mussina NYY 512 335 335.31 0.654 0.655 99.91
Josh Beckett Bos 566 385 385.40 0.680 0.681 99.90
Matt Chico Was 548 380 380.44 0.693 0.694 99.88
Matt Belisle Cin 570 378 378.52 0.663 0.664 99.86
Shaun Marcum Tor 456 329 329.69 0.721 0.723 99.79
Jeff Weaver Sea 511 340 340.84 0.665 0.667 99.75
Derek Lowe LAD 604 412 413.67 0.682 0.685 99.60
Kameron Loe Tex 464 305 306.28 0.657 0.660 99.58
Joe Saunders LAA 358 235 236.04 0.656 0.659 99.56
Brad Thompson StL 451 307 308.45 0.681 0.684 99.53
Josh Fogg Col 556 381 383.08 0.685 0.689 99.46
Horacio Ramirez Sea 361 231 232.31 0.640 0.644 99.44
Jeff Francis Col 662 447 449.57 0.675 0.679 99.43
Miguel Batista Sea 615 415 417.51 0.675 0.679 99.40
Paul Byrd Cle 686 465 467.91 0.678 0.682 99.38
Gil Meche KC 663 459 462.21 0.692 0.697 99.31
Claudio Vargas Mil 419 281 283.02 0.671 0.675 99.29
Mark Buehrle CWS 648 455 458.82 0.702 0.708 99.17
Boof Bonser Min 539 359 362.02 0.666 0.672 99.17
Javier Vazquez CWS 583 409 412.68 0.702 0.708 99.11
Edwin Jackson TB 516 333 336.02 0.645 0.651 99.10
Bartolo Colon LAA 328 205 206.87 0.625 0.631 99.09
Tony Armas Jr. Pit 305 208 209.93 0.682 0.688 99.08
Jorge de la Rosa KC 431 285 287.91 0.661 0.668 98.99
Jason Jennings Hou 319 214 216.25 0.671 0.678 98.96
Edgar Gonzalez Ari 324 228 230.41 0.704 0.711 98.96
Chris Young SD 448 336 339.55 0.750 0.758 98.96
Julian Tavarez Bos 455 307 310.39 0.675 0.682 98.91
Woody Williams Hou 632 443 448.01 0.701 0.709 98.88
Daniel Cabrera Bal 608 415 419.74 0.683 0.690 98.87
Bronson Arroyo Cin 661 449 454.60 0.679 0.688 98.77
Kyle Lohse Cin 426 293 296.71 0.688 0.697 98.75
Cliff Lee Cle 317 216 218.74 0.681 0.690 98.75
Paul Maholm Pit 583 391 396.00 0.671 0.679 98.74
Chad Gaudin Oak 603 413 418.34 0.685 0.694 98.72
Ervin Santana LAA 457 302 306.05 0.661 0.670 98.68
Doug Davis Ari 597 400 405.62 0.670 0.679 98.61
Sergio Mitre Fla 522 343 347.92 0.657 0.667 98.59
Adam Wainwright StL 654 441 447.57 0.674 0.684 98.53
Byung-Hyun Kim Fla 316 212 215.40 0.671 0.682 98.42
Ramon Ortiz Min 324 217 220.56 0.670 0.681 98.39
Kevin Correia SF 306 217 220.82 0.709 0.722 98.27
Kevin Millwood Tex 571 364 370.63 0.637 0.649 98.21
Jeremy Bonderman Det 533 354 360.70 0.664 0.677 98.14
Scott Baker Min 454 302 308.06 0.665 0.679 98.03
Dan Haren Oak 661 457 466.27 0.691 0.705 98.01
Randy Wolf LAD 309 205 209.32 0.663 0.677 97.93
Jeff Suppan Mil 708 472 482.96 0.667 0.682 97.73
Josh Towers Tor 347 229 234.38 0.660 0.675 97.71
Matt Cain SF 571 409 419.20 0.716 0.734 97.57
John Smoltz Atl 586 400 410.60 0.683 0.701 97.42
Brandon McCarthy Tex 340 232 238.54 0.682 0.702 97.26
Taylor Buchholz Col 305 207 212.87 0.679 0.698 97.24
Andy Sonnanstine TB 408 272 280.02 0.667 0.686 97.13
Brian Burres Bal 378 249 256.88 0.659 0.680 96.93
Brett Tomko LAD 339 219 226.04 0.646 0.667 96.89
Joe Kennedy Oak 346 242 250.10 0.699 0.723 96.76
Scott Kazmir TB 534 346 358.19 0.648 0.671 96.60
Chris Capuano Mil 456 297 307.78 0.651 0.675 96.50
Robinson Tejeda Tex 302 204 212.16 0.675 0.703 96.16
David Wells SD 416 271 282.44 0.651 0.679 95.95
David Bush Mil 594 395 412.87 0.665 0.695 95.67
Zach Duke Pit 399 246 258.54 0.617 0.648 95.15
Jose Contreras CWS 647 420 441.74 0.649 0.683 95.08
Kip Wells StL 522 342 360.50 0.655 0.691 94.87
Scott Olsen Fla 578 366 387.16 0.633 0.670 94.53

Chien-Ming Wang comes out on top by far, not surprising given the Yankees overall defensive rating. What bothers me about Wang, however, is the low level of his predicted DER. You would think that someone who gets a lot of ground balls would be somewhat higher. The following chart breaks down Wang by ball in play type:

CM Wang by Batted Ball Type, 2007
Batted Ball Type In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Fly 112 101 98.85 0.902 0.883 102.18
Liner 92 29 16.14 0.315 0.175 179.66
Grounder 377 291 269.40 0.772 0.715 108.02
Bunt Grounder 6 4 4.20 0.667 0.700 95.24
Bunt Fly 1 1 1.00 1.000 1.000 100.00
Fliner (Fly) 29 13 14.12 0.448 0.487 92.09
Fliner (Liner) 26 9 11.23 0.346 0.432 80.12

Notice that the defense behind Wang caught a lot more line drives than predicted. Line drives tend to fall for hits, so by adding thirteen extra outs with liners, the Yankees really helped Wang. So Chien-Ming got a bit lucky that way. The grounders, however, is where the defense really shined. They picked up about twenty one more outs than expected on ground balls. How did they do that? The Yankees made a lot of plays on low probability vectors:

Wang Ground Balls by Vector, 2007
Vector In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
28 8 6 7.02 0.750 0.877 85.52
29 17 13 12.05 0.765 0.709 107.90
30 29 21 17.57 0.724 0.606 119.49
31 28 27 24.76 0.964 0.884 109.04
32 19 18 18.43 0.947 0.970 97.66
33 32 29 26.75 0.906 0.836 108.40
34 17 12 9.48 0.706 0.558 126.59
35 11 9 7.38 0.818 0.671 121.97
36 23 14 13.01 0.609 0.566 107.58
37 22 12 13.66 0.545 0.621 87.82
38 27 24 23.07 0.889 0.854 104.04
39 31 30 25.58 0.968 0.825 117.26
40 22 19 17.41 0.864 0.792 109.11
41 34 24 17.12 0.706 0.504 140.19
42 27 17 19.83 0.630 0.734 85.73
43 11 9 9.71 0.818 0.883 92.67
44 10 5 4.56 0.500 0.456 109.71

The vectors go from a low of 28 at the third base line to a high of 44 at the first base line. By looking at the Predicted DER column, you can see where the holes are in the infield. Vector 30 represents the hole between third and short, vectors 34-37 the area around second base where ground balls go into centerfield, and vector 41, the hole between first and second. Note that Wang does well in the holes, as if the defense were shifted a bit toward first base. Both the line drive and ground ball data make me wonder if someone was doing a very good job of positioning the Yankees fielders. I don't know who was in charge of that, but in the case of Wang, they did a very good job.

That brings up a point I haven't made in a while. Range is probably a poor word for the ability measured here. Range implies that the fielder can move a long way to get a ball. But sometimes anticipating where the ball gets hit is just as important. So the ability to move and the ability to position are two factors in what the model means by range.

On the other end of the spectrum, Matt Cain not only received no run support, he didn't get much defensive support either. And the defense behind Kazmir was just ridiculous. Here's a pitcher who keeps balls in play to a minimum, and his defense can't turn the few hit to them into outs.

I'll start on individual positions tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:20 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
November 04, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007, Teams
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Baseball Info Solutions sent me their final stats for 2007 over the weekend. That means it's time to start presenting the 2007 Probabilistic Model or Range. If you're new to this, you can find explanations in this archive. Basically, for each fieldable (non inside the park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking.

The model is based primarily on visiting player data, smoothed, distance on fly balls. Only 2007 data was used to construct the model.

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. In fact, the team ranked first in 2007 is a bit of a surprise for that very reason.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Yankees 4511 3103 3041.46 0.688 0.674 0.01364
Red Sox 4226 2974 2919.61 0.704 0.691 0.01287
Cubs 4177 2943 2895.51 0.705 0.693 0.01137
Blue Jays 4349 3060 3017.22 0.704 0.694 0.00984
Royals 4528 3093 3058.20 0.683 0.675 0.00768
Angels 4325 2930 2900.79 0.677 0.671 0.00675
Phillies 4505 3085 3056.00 0.685 0.678 0.00644
Rockies 4599 3221 3195.95 0.700 0.695 0.00545
Tigers 4486 3094 3072.58 0.690 0.685 0.00477
Braves 4404 3069 3048.96 0.697 0.692 0.00455
Mets 4362 3050 3033.08 0.699 0.695 0.00388
Giants 4467 3108 3096.80 0.696 0.693 0.00251
Orioles 4403 3017 3006.12 0.685 0.683 0.00247
Rangers 4518 3071 3061.36 0.680 0.678 0.00213
Nationals 4591 3198 3191.04 0.697 0.695 0.00152
Indians 4548 3112 3107.26 0.684 0.683 0.00104
Padres 4476 3131 3128.60 0.700 0.699 0.00054
Mariners 4535 3050 3051.99 0.673 0.673 -0.00044
Diamondbacks 4351 3013 3016.84 0.692 0.693 -0.00088
Dodgers 4310 2942 2945.91 0.683 0.684 -0.00091
Cardinals 4587 3150 3154.99 0.687 0.688 -0.00109
Twins 4384 3003 3014.01 0.685 0.688 -0.00251
Astros 4530 3099 3120.86 0.684 0.689 -0.00483
Reds 4533 3068 3096.08 0.677 0.683 -0.00619
Pirates 4608 3099 3132.67 0.673 0.680 -0.00731
Athletics 4499 3110 3144.35 0.691 0.699 -0.00763
Brewers 4392 2966 3011.82 0.675 0.686 -0.01043
White Sox 4545 3089 3141.16 0.680 0.691 -0.01148
Marlins 4491 2962 3039.28 0.660 0.677 -0.01721
Devil Rays 4378 2867 2943.31 0.655 0.672 -0.01743

That's right, the Yankees are number one. Without running the individual numbers, I'm guessing that a full season of Melky Cabrera and keeping Giambi off first really helped. The Red Sox defense turned a higher percentage of their balls in play into outs, but they also were given easier balls to field in general.

I wondered why the Tampa Bay pitching staff did so poorly with the high number of strikeouts they collected, and the reason is clear in these numbers. The Devil Rays defense was horrible. In fact, the state of Florida just can't play defense, with the Marlins ranking 29th in the majors.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look a lot better than their posted DER. If they ever get a good set of pitchers on that team, they're going to post a low ERA.

For those of you who prefer a ranking by ratio of DER/Predicted DER, here's the table with that data.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Yankees 4511 3103 3041.46 0.688 0.674 102.02
Red Sox 4226 2974 2919.61 0.704 0.691 101.86
Cubs 4177 2943 2895.51 0.705 0.693 101.64
Blue Jays 4349 3060 3017.22 0.704 0.694 101.42
Royals 4528 3093 3058.20 0.683 0.675 101.14
Angels 4325 2930 2900.79 0.677 0.671 101.01
Phillies 4505 3085 3056.00 0.685 0.678 100.95
Rockies 4599 3221 3195.95 0.700 0.695 100.78
Tigers 4486 3094 3072.58 0.690 0.685 100.70
Braves 4404 3069 3048.96 0.697 0.692 100.66
Mets 4362 3050 3033.08 0.699 0.695 100.56
Orioles 4403 3017 3006.12 0.685 0.683 100.36
Giants 4467 3108 3096.80 0.696 0.693 100.36
Rangers 4518 3071 3061.36 0.680 0.678 100.31
Nationals 4591 3198 3191.04 0.697 0.695 100.22
Indians 4548 3112 3107.26 0.684 0.683 100.15
Padres 4476 3131 3128.60 0.700 0.699 100.08
Mariners 4535 3050 3051.99 0.673 0.673 99.93
Diamondbacks 4351 3013 3016.84 0.692 0.693 99.87
Dodgers 4310 2942 2945.91 0.683 0.684 99.87
Cardinals 4587 3150 3154.99 0.687 0.688 99.84
Twins 4384 3003 3014.01 0.685 0.688 99.63
Astros 4530 3099 3120.86 0.684 0.689 99.30
Reds 4533 3068 3096.08 0.677 0.683 99.09
Pirates 4608 3099 3132.67 0.673 0.680 98.93
Athletics 4499 3110 3144.35 0.691 0.699 98.91
Brewers 4392 2966 3011.82 0.675 0.686 98.48
White Sox 4545 3089 3141.16 0.680 0.691 98.34
Marlins 4491 2962 3039.28 0.660 0.677 97.46
Devil Rays 4378 2867 2943.31 0.655 0.672 97.41
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 PM | Comments (34) | TrackBack (0)
November 03, 2007
Award Winners
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C. Trent Rosecrans interviews John Dewan about the 2007 Fielding Bible awards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 31, 2007
Evaluating Defense
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On Baseball and the Reds is writing a series on defensive stats, including how to combine various range data into a better model.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 15, 2007
Melvin on Defense
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Bob Melvin praises the Rockies defense:

"You gotta tip your hat," Arizona Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin said. "We hit some balls hard. Seemed like every ball we hit hard, someone ended up making a good play, whether it's in the outfield or infield.

"It's different than the Rockies you've seen in the past defensively. They're as good as anybody in baseball, and it's shown up all series."

The Rockies DER this season was .703, which is remarkable given their ballpark. Lots of hits tend to fall in the big outfield. I can't wait to see what PMR says about their team defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 07, 2007
Missed it by That Much
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Coco Crisp almost makes a great defensive play in centerfield on Izturis. Crisp dives and gets the ball in his glove, but he loses it as he hits the ground. Izturs gets a double, the first extra-base hit allowed by Schilling in the game.

Update: Kendrick grounds to second, moving Izturis to third. The Angels don't have that many outs left, however, so even productive ones are costly.

Update: Rivera pops out to first on a split-finger that was sinking fast. Schilling's doing a great job today of keeping the Angels hitters off balance.

Update: Schilling strikes out Napoli to end the inning and get a short shutout. At 100 pitches, Curt is unlikely to come out for the eighth. It's an impressive outing that seems to be the norm for the new Schilling. He strikes out just four, and he only walked one. Instead of striking out a lot of batters, Schilling is causing them to hit the ball poorly. He's getting a lot of outs even with a lot of balls in play. The Red Sox defense helps there as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 16, 2007
Two for Two
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The Phillies load the bases with two outs in the second inning, but Oliver induces a ground ball to short. Ruiz was cutting in front of Reyes as the ball approached him, and Jose booted the grounder. He recovered and tried to throw to second, but the runner was already safe and the throw goes through Castillo. Two runs score on two errors by Reyes, and the normally sure-handed Mets defense costs them.

Perez continues to walk Phillies, as he walked Rollins to start the game and Eaton to load the bases. He's now walked 14 Phillies in 10 2/3 innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 14, 2007
Melk Delivery
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David Ortiz doubles off the wall in left, then Lowell singles hard to center. I was absolutely amazed that the third base coach sent Ortiz. Posada had to wait a second for David to slide into him. Melky picks up his fourteenth assist of the year, and the Red Sox have two outs and a man on second instead of first and third, one out.

Update: Giambi gets eaten up by a hot shot off Drew's bat and the Red Sox score their second run. There's been poor infield defense by the Yankees tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Stone Glove Award
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Jeter's made too poor plays in the first inning. He made a bad throw on a ground by Lugo resulting in an error, and just now he booted a double play ground by David Ortiz, only getting an out at first. How he wins Gold Gloves is beyond me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2007
Defensive Positioning
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A very nice play by the Mariners in the top of the first inning. Willits leads off with a single, then goes on a hit and run with Cabrera at the plate. Orlando hits the ball the other way, just to the rightfield side of second. But Seattle had the shortstop cover on the play, so Lopez was in the perfect spot to make the play, make a quick toss to Betancourt who then completed the double play. They guessed right on that one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 23, 2007
Scout the Defense
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Once again, you can help determine the best and worst defenders in baseball. TangoTiger needs your help. He want your opinions of fielders as he puts together The 2007 Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans. If you watch a lot of games and have opinions on fielders, please take his survey and be part of the wisdom of the crowds approach to quantifying defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2007
Trick Play
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Posada and Clemens combine for an interesting double play. With Inge on third and Maybin on first, Clemens strikes out Thames. Maybin was running, and as Posada threw, Inge broke for the plate. But Posada threw the ball to Clemens, not second base. Roger ran down Brandon for the second out to end the inning.

Roger has the strikeout pitch working today as he's K'd six through three innings. The Yankees lead 1-0 on a Posada homer as it's a Jorge Day on both sides of the ball.

Update: Maybin hits his first home run, a shot to straight-away center. The solo shot in the fifth gives the Tigers a 2-1 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 14, 2007
Poke by Pronk Procured
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In the bottom of the eight in Cleveland, Byrdak walks two batters with two out to bring up Travis Hafner. He lines one to left center, where Granderson lays out to make a fantastic diving catch to keep the game tied. If Detroit wins this one, Curtis gets the game ball.

Update: In the bottom of the ninth, Chris Gomez leads off with a double. That brings up Peralta against Rodney. Jhonny was 0 for 8 vs. Rodney with three Ks. However, he's batted very well this season with men on base and with runners in scoring position. The announcers thought Peralta should bunt, but Wedge has him swing away and he strikes out on a heater right down the middle of the plate. I could go either way on this one, but it seems Peralta has a decent chance of ending the game by letting him swing away.

Update: Rodney strikes out the final two batters in the inning. They'll go to extra innings. The Indians struck out 13 times in the first nine, Detroit 11.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 13, 2007
Base Runner Kills
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The Phillies defeated the Braves 5-3 tonight to take second place in the NL East. But Jeff Francoeur kept the Braves in the game with two base runner kills. That brings Jeff's total of outfielder assists to seventeen, six more than anyone else in the NL. I suspect coaches will stop sending runners on Francoeur soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 10, 2007
Off the Glove
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Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter reach bases leading off the third inning on balls that could have been outs. Both went for hits. The first was a pop up behind second that just ticked off Peralta's glove, but he didn't take a great route to the ball. I would have given him an error. The second was a grounder up the middle by Jeter. Peralta dived for the ball, and it just ticked off his glove to put runners at first and third.

Then Abreu hit one up the middle, Peralta fielded it on the first-base side of second, but Barfield didn't cover, and by the time Jhonny was able to tag second, he couldn't get the double play. The Yankees lead 3-0 in the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 07, 2007
Toronto Throws
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The Toronto Blue Jays show off their arms in the top of the fifth. McDonald made a great throw from deep in the hole to nip A-Rod at first. Then for the second time tonight, Posada gets thrown out trying to stretch a double into a double. Rios got him in the fifth, and Reed Johnson caught him earlier. Finally, McDonald makes another nice play in the hole to force a runner at second to end the inning. The defense kept a 4-0 Yankees lead from expanding.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 17, 2007
Play at the Plate
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Great play at the plate in the Toronto-New York game. With the score 2-1 Toronto in the bottom of the ninth, Phillips singles and Cairo pinch runs and steals second. Cabrera singles to shallow right, and Miguel tries to score from second. Rios makes a great throw, and Zaun blocks the plate perfectly, flipping Cairo away from home and holding onto the ball for the out. Miguel may have injured his shoulder on the play.

Cabrera took second on the throw, then stole third with one out. Damon walks, and Jeter is up with the tying run 90 feet away.

Update: Accardo balks to force in the tying run and take away the double play. The great defensive play saves a run, but we'll see if it saves the game.

Update: Jeter hits a perfect double play ball to short, as does Abreu to end the inning. Without the balk, the Blue Jays win the game. Instead, the teams go to the tenth tied at two.

Update: Robinson Cano singles home A-Rod in the 10th and the Yankees take the game 3-2. The gain a game on the Red Sox and put a little more distance between them and the Blue Jays.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 04, 2007
In the Neighborhood
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I just saw a very bad example of the umpire giving the second baseman the out on a double play just for being close to the bag. Fontenot took the throw from the third baseman about a foot in front of the bag. The camera work was bad and blurry, but the picture cleared as the camera came to rest on the second baseman. It was clear at that point he was no where near the bag, and there was no runner bearing down on him. You need to be a little closer than that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 03, 2007
No Defense
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The Milwaukee Brewers made four errors this afternoon, and at least one other bad play that went for a triple as they lose to Pittsburgh 6-2. The errors led to two unearned runs. Milwaukee had opportunities to score. They loaded the bases in the second but did not score. Shane Youman gave up eight hits, a walk and a hit batter in six innings of work, but allowed just two runs. Last year, despite walking ten and striking out just five in 21 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.91 ERA. It appears this pitcher bends but he doesn't break.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2007
Positioning as Range
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The Twins came up in the bottom of the ninth inning last night trailing 5-4 with Joe Mauer leading off the inning. Joe smacked a hard grounder up the middle, and off the bat I thought, "There's a hit." But as the camera turned to show the field, Royce Clayton was crouching in front of the ball, and made an easy play for an out. Clayton played Mauer perfectly, and what would be a single in many cases started a 1-2-3 inning for a Toronto victory.

The Blue Jays obviously did their homework. And of course, it's so easy to do today. Mauer seldom hits ground balls to the right of where Clayton was stationed. By positioning himself correctly, Royce Clayton is increasing his range without having to move a long distance for a ball. That's why, at some point, I'd love to get positioning information for players, so we can separate those player who can move long distances to get to balls vs. players who know where to stand before a ball is put in play.

With the win, the Blue Jays move over .500 and to 9 games behind Boston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 31, 2007
Minds Changing?
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I'm starting to get some positive feedback on this Youkilis-Helton video.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 25, 2007
Warning Track Robbery
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Jason Michaels shows off his vertical leap as he skys over the fence in left to steal a home run from Craig Monroe. The Tigers picked up three straight hits, a triple by Guillen and singles by Rodriguez and Casey to cut the lead to 2-1. Monroe's shot would have put the Tigers up 4-2. Who says white men can't jump?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 23, 2007
Where's the Wall?
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Hunter Pence makes a catch off Rich Aurilia at the 404 sign in centerfield. He was feeling for the wall, and thought he was close. He leaped for the ball, caught it, and looked like he thought he would crash against the padding. Instead, he fell over and hit his head in the seam where the wall angles in toward left. It was a scary crash, but Hunter held on and stayed in the game. If he was more aware of his position, he could have just kept going back to make the catch without leaping.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 21, 2007
Catching Flies
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John Lowe reviews the Tigers outfield defense. It's a group effort:

The outfielders don't flip the ball to each other for outs like Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco do. But they consider their defense a collaboration.

"We communicate really well the whole game about (where) we're positioning ourselves," Ordonez said.

Monroe said: "Curtis makes sure that when he moves, he makes the rightfielder and leftfielder move. We talk about where to play the hitters. Curtis might look at me and say, 'What do you think?' We sometimes make the wrong decision, but when you do it as a group, it always feels better to know we were all committed to the same plan."

In the 1980s I used to sit in the centerfield bleachers at Fenway Park. I was always amazed that teams would come in that didn't do anything to position outfielders. No matter the hitter, they played everyone straight away. It's good to see the Tigers thinking about this and putting a plan into action.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 20, 2007
Kendall Shift
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Jacob Lous attended the Oakland game today and sends a word on Jason Kendall:

One of the craziest things to watch in baseball this year is the Jason Kendall shift. His name is announced, and three outfielders instantly start jogging - jogging - to a new spot. I've never seen anything like it.

LF and CF jog 20 feet to the right since he pulls the ball so seldomly, and the rightfielder moves in at least 15 feet. Part of the reason his BA is so low this year is that teams have figured out that a high percentage of his hits come on dinkers to right. With so few XBH, he rarely makes anyone pay by hitting it over their head, and the CF shades far enough to right to prevent a triple if it's hit over the RF's head.

Kendall broke up a no-hitter recently because of this shift.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2007
Shades of Willie Mays
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The Braves are losing 8-0 in the bottom of the sixth, but Andrew Jones just channelled Willie Mays. On a ball to deep centerfield, Andruw ran straight back, looking over his right shoulder, and made a basket catch for the out. Here's the Mays catch. Both are pretty plays.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2007
With Teammates Like These
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Orlando Cabrera clocks Reggie Willits in the jaw as they both go for a fly ball down the line in leftfield. Cabrera was calling for the ball but it's not clear that Willits did also. Cabrerra made the catch, and ran the ball in to prevent Blalock from scoring from third while Willits lay on the ground. Reggie stayed in the game.

Kevin Millwood re-injured his hamstring. He gave up a grand slam to Kotchman in the first, and the Angels lead 4-0 in the top of the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2007
Two Nice Plays
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The Mariners turn two pretty plays in the top of the third. Phelps hits a bouncer in the hole that Betancourt backhands, jumps and throws to beat Phelps by a mile. He made the catch and throw in one smooth motion. Then Cano hit a nubber between the catcher and the pitcher toward third base. Ramirez was quick off the mound, made a strong throw but wide, but Sexson used his height to stretch, catch and hold the bag for the third out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 09, 2007
Fielding, Too
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Brew Crew Ball notes a number of good defensive plays by the Brewers last night. They're not a great defense right now. The Hardball Times puts their DER at .694, tied for eighth in the NL. But THT's +/- rating assigns better numbers to the fielders than the pitchers, so in fact Milwaukee's defens is doing a pretty good job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 05, 2007
Right On Crisp
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Earlier today I discussed a Bill James observation that Coco Crisp played an excellent centerfield over the last two weeks. I've looked that the probability of his putouts using last year's probabilistic model of range (PMR). Bill was right on.

This season, Crisp caught nine balls that weren't caught last year. There was a small sample size on each of those, so zero might not be accurate, but nine of those catches came in the last two weeks. Overall, he caught fifteen balls where the probability was less than or equal to .5, and 13 of those came from 4/23 on. If I had data on balls he didn't catch, we could do a complete analysis, but it sure looks like Bill's observation is true, that over the last two week Crisp is making difficult plays.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Crisp in Center
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Bill James sent an e-mail to a few sabermetric friends this afternoon praising Coco Crisp. Seth Mnookin posted here. The main quote from James:

"It seems to me that the BIGGEST factor in our team's performance over the last week or so has been that Coco has been just unbelievable in center field...he's just catching EVERYTHING that looks like it might be trouble. There's been no gap in right center, no gap in left center, nothing getting over his head and nothing has been landing in front of him."

Seth gives an example from Friday night's game. I was able to obtain data on Crisp's putouts, and since April 23rd, Coco started seven games, collecting 34 putouts or about five a game. In his previous 15 starts, Coco recorded 41 putouts, or less than three per game. So over the last couple of weeks, Crisp is up about two putouts per game. There's not a lot of context here. I don't know if more balls are being hit in his general area. But I'm trying to get a handle on the degree of difficulty of the catches, and I'll post when I have something on that.

Update: Here's a chart of Crisp's putouts this season. Second base is at 180 degrees. (Click for a larger image.)

CrispPutouts.JPG

As you can see, he's catching balls close and far, and he's covering thirty degrees of the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 29, 2007
Defense in Center
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A ball just dropped between Jason Kubel and Torii Hunter because Torii didn't do his job as a centerfielder and try to catch everything. He jogged after a ball he thought Kubel could catch, rather than running full speed and calling Kubel off. Kubel thought Hunter would get the ball, and it fell for a hit to put runners on first and second with one out.

Update: Santana gets a strikeout and ground out to end the inning. No score at the end of two in Detroit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2007
Shifting Gears
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Manny Stiles documents the Pronk shift, used against Travis Hafner last night.

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April 21, 2007
Strange Error
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Nate Robertson picks up an error on a throw to first, because he faked out his own first baseman. Nate takes off his hat and is wiping his brow when he throws quickly to first. Casey, seeing Robertson apparently taking a moment, takes off his glove for an adjustment. The ball sails by, and Ozuna ends up at second. He's at third after a single, and ties the game on a sacrifice fly by Thome.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 06, 2007
Manny Being Man-D
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Manny made a bad throw earlier today, so I should I should praise a good defensive play as well. He just made a nice running catch over his shoulder as he ran back toward the leftfield wall, just on the edge of the warning track. The fact that Manny can make plays like that is one of the infuriating things about his defense. You get the feeling sometimes he doesn't try.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 04, 2007
Another Great Catch
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Gary Matthews, Jr. just made another great catch, robbing Michael Young of a home run at the centerfield fence. He's making the Rangers really miss him.

Update: Matthews then leads off the inning with a high chop that lands behind McCarthy for a single. A wild pitch and two singles later the Angels lead 1-0. Not surprisingly, Guerrero drove in the run with another hit against the Angels.

Update: The Angels score four in the first, ruining McCarthy's debut with Texas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Turning Two
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The Mets pitchers so far allowed a .348 OBA. That's high for a staff. But that number gets cut down by the number of ground double plays induced. Overall, New York pitchers allowed 16 Cardinals to reach base via a hit, walk or hit by pitch in sixty nine plate appearances. But if you remove the seven runners taken out on double plays, the effective OBA against the Mets is just .246, which is excellent.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 30, 2007
More Defensive Calculations
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On Baseball and the Reds is doing nice work with The Hardball Times defensive numbers, coming up with a way to convert THT's zone ratings to a +/- system. The Probabilistic Model of Range lends a hand. What's nice about this is that it looks like something that can be calculated during the season.

Correction: Fixed the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 27, 2007
Brown's Frown
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Emil Brown fights back against criticism of his defense:

Emil Brown glanced at the lineup card Sunday morning in the Royals' clubhouse, turned and observed to anyone within listening distance:

"I guess my defense is good enough for me to be in right field today."

The words came out as a challenge and borderline belligerent. The message was unmistakable. Brown has had it with those who label him "an adventure," or worse, in the outfield, on the bases or anywhere else.

His irritation centers on the media, first and foremost, but not exclusively. His fed-up list includes anyone trashing his skills, be they players or officials with other clubs -- or within the Royals' organization.

"I hear it all of the time," Brown said. "He's an adventure out there. Why? Because I'm actually trying to make plays happen?

"It isn't an adventure for (Twins outfielder) Torii Hunter when he dives for a ball and misses it. Then, it's, 'Oh, he just missed it.' He gets the benefit of the doubt because he's a Gold Glover. But it's an adventure when I do it."

Emil makes a good point. If you look at his defensive charts for 2006, Brown isn't a star defender, but he's basically making the plays. It doesn't matter how smooth you look catching the ball, as long as you make the catch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
March 25, 2007
Probabilistic Model of GDPs
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A few days ago I introduced the idea of a probabilistic model of Ground into Double Plays (GDP). The probabilistic model of range just measures the ability to turn a ball into an out. For infielders, however, they're often asked to turn a ground ball into more than one out. The idea is to take a very specific situation; ground ball hit, man on first, less than two out and build a model that measures both plays made and GDP turned. With that model, we can ask which fielders perform well in that situation.

In building this model, I left parks out of the parameters. Basically, I thought the sample size would be too small if I left the parks in. This probably hurts the three teams that play of artifical turf.

Let's start by looking at the ability of shortstops to start a double play. The following table looks at three indexes for each fielder. The Plays Made (PM) index measures Plays Made / Predicted Plays Made. This measures the fielder's ability to turn a ball into an out. The GDP index does the same for ground double plays. Does the fielder start the expected number of double plays? And finally, an outs index that looks at the total number of outs accured to the fielder on these balls in play. It could be a fielder is making up for a lack of range by being really good at starting GDPs, or vice versa. Remember, this says nothing about the pivot man or the receiver at first base. In this context, we're only looking at the fielder who starts the play.

Probabilistic Model of GDPs, Ground Balls, Man on First, Less than Two Out, Shortstops Starting GDP (2006 Data Used to Build Model)
Player Ground Balls
In Play
Actual
Plays Made
Predicted
Plays Made
PM
Index
Actual
GDP
Predicted
GDP
GDP
Index
Actual
Outs
Predicted
Outs
Outs
Index
Craig Counsell 183 40 32.14 124.44 32 21.23 150.72 72 53.38 134.89
Khalil Greene 219 53 45.27 117.08 31 28.68 108.07 84 73.95 113.59
Stephen Drew 121 26 23.68 109.82 17 14.29 118.92 43 37.97 113.25
Clint Barmes 283 56 53.75 104.18 42 33.03 127.16 98 86.78 112.92
Juan Uribe 274 58 50.75 114.29 34 31.85 106.75 92 82.60 111.38
Hanley Ramirez 352 71 67.58 105.05 49 43.18 113.48 120 110.76 108.34
Miguel Tejada 342 76 72.84 104.33 52 45.35 114.66 128 118.20 108.30
David Eckstein 298 61 56.74 107.50 38 34.92 108.81 99 91.67 108.00
Jack Wilson 290 64 62.47 102.45 46 39.39 116.77 110 101.86 107.99
Rafael Furcal 396 92 85.54 107.55 58 55.24 104.99 150 140.78 106.55
Bill Hall 228 55 50.83 108.21 33 32.90 100.30 88 83.73 105.10
Bobby Crosby 237 44 42.12 104.47 29 27.37 105.94 73 69.49 105.05
Alex Gonzalez 244 50 51.18 97.69 38 33.41 113.74 88 84.59 104.03
Jimmy Rollins 333 70 69.50 100.72 48 44.05 108.97 118 113.54 103.92
Carlos Guillen 303 65 64.24 101.18 45 41.63 108.10 110 105.87 103.90
Adam Everett 309 66 63.51 103.91 41 40.15 102.11 107 103.67 103.22
Ronny Cedeno 240 49 46.28 105.87 28 29.54 94.79 77 75.82 101.55
Michael Young 410 88 86.89 101.28 54 55.41 97.46 142 142.30 99.79
Jason A Bartlett 214 50 47.40 105.49 28 31.86 87.90 78 79.25 98.42
Jose Reyes 304 67 66.70 100.45 40 43.66 91.62 107 110.36 96.96
Omar Vizquel 297 64 65.48 97.73 42 44.00 95.45 106 109.49 96.82
John McDonald 170 25 26.52 94.26 18 17.91 100.50 43 44.43 96.77
Orlando Cabrera 319 58 60.40 96.03 38 39.02 97.38 96 99.42 96.56
Felipe Lopez 319 67 64.47 103.93 34 40.58 83.78 101 105.05 96.15
Angel Berroa 337 69 72.29 95.44 46 47.91 96.02 115 120.20 95.67
Jhonny Peralta 357 82 84.45 97.10 50 55.63 89.88 132 140.08 94.23
Alex Cora 127 30 32.94 91.07 21 22.16 94.76 51 55.10 92.56
Marco Scutaro 146 34 37.58 90.47 24 25.22 95.15 58 62.81 92.35
Edgar Renteria 347 63 67.67 93.10 39 43.19 90.30 102 110.86 92.01
Yuniesky Betancourt 350 60 66.40 90.36 43 46.02 93.44 103 112.42 91.62
Julio Lugo 182 32 35.29 90.68 21 23.66 88.74 53 58.95 89.90
Ben T Zobrist 131 25 28.09 89.00 17 18.93 89.82 42 47.02 89.33
Juan Castro 146 23 25.18 91.33 13 15.27 85.11 36 40.46 88.98
Derek Jeter 336 63 70.96 88.79 40 45.81 87.32 103 116.77 88.21
Royce Clayton 234 43 47.02 91.44 20 29.67 67.40 63 76.70 82.14
Aaron W Hill 108 16 20.33 78.70 7 12.82 54.62 23 33.14 69.39


Notice how few chances fielders get to turn GDPs. On the best teams, they get a little over two chances a game. Secondly, Arizona does a good job of picking out shortstops, as Counsell and Drew are near the top of the list. And if you don't like Derek Jeter, here's another area where you can pick on him.

The other thing that strikes me about the list is that shortstops who are good at making plays are also the ones good at starting double plays. Ronny Cedeno is unusual in that he's good at getting an out, but didn't do well starting DPs. Could it be that Todd Walker was just a poor pivot man? I hope further research using these models will help answer that question.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:46 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 17, 2007
Manny's Defense
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Dan Rosenheck looks to see if Manny Ramirez's defense is hurting his value to the Red Sox (full disclosure, I was consulted on the article):

The truth most likely lies in the middle: the average of the P.B.P. systems' results for Ramírez is 15 to 20 runs below average. That's enough to take a significant bite out of his value. If his hitting begins to deteriorate this season (he turns 35 in May), and his base running remains poor (subtracting another two runs or so), he is likely to be worth about as much in 2007 as Oakland's up-and-coming Nick Swisher. In other words, an All-Star, but not a franchise player, and certainly not worth anywhere near his $20 million salary.

I put the cost of Manny in left field at no more than 16 runs in 2006, whereas Dan believes that the minimum. Dan is also basing Manny's worth on Ramriez's worth on his continuing at that level of defense and his offense declining due to age. But of the three years I've measured Ramirez, 2006 was by far the worst reading I've seen on him. Manny complained of a bad right knee in 2006. If that's better and he becomes more mobile, I suspect the number of balls he gets to goes up as well.

So I'm not quite as dire as Dan in assessing the worth of Ramirez. He a great player in his mid 30's, and I'm not surprised he is showing signs of decline.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
March 16, 2007
Increasing Range
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Miguel Tejada took complaints about his lack of range seriously this off season. He's come to camp in excellent shape and is actually working on increasing the area he can cover:

Shiner said Tejada's workouts have been focused on improving his foot speed and movement. During one drill, Tejada shuffles back and forth between cones as Shiner rolls baseballs to him. The exercise is designed to maximize the steps to get to the ball, simulating the act of fielding a baseball while moving left or right. Team officials have been pleased with the range Tejada has shown thus far in camp.

"He is moving around a lot better than he did last year," Perlozzo said. "When his knee was bad [last year], I knew there was nothing that I can do about that. ... It was an up-and-down year for him defensively for multiple reasons."

Teammates said Tejada got a bad rap for his defense last season, considering that he was nursing knee and hamstring injuries the first couple of months of the season. Tejada did make 19 errors, tying his lowest total for a full season in his career. But it was his range that was often criticized by scouts and baseball officials.

"He wasn't fully healthy early last year and yet he still went out there and did all he could. Of course, your range is going to be limited, but most guys wouldn't have even been out there," Gomez said. "He got healthy soon thereafter, and I thought he was great. I don't think anybody could deny that. He got this label, where someone says one thing about range and all of a sudden you don't have range. It sticks. I think it is really unfair."

We'll see if his PMR improves at the end of the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 15, 2007
The 270
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Via Dodger Thoughts, there's a new trick play in baseball:

Born in the imagination of a minor-league pitching coach, carried from Class A to the brink of the big leagues by an over-achieving, side-arming right-hander, "The 3-2" is a pick-off move that is challenging umpires at least as much as it is eliminating baserunners.

Footage of the move, captured accidentally Friday night by a Venezuelan film crew stationed behind home plate at Surprise Stadium, has been carried on compact disc from Arizona to the Major League Baseball offices in New York City. Duplicates will go out to umpiring supervisors and trickle into the minor leagues.

The pickoff play begins with the bases loaded or runners at second and third. The pitcher fakes the throw to third, then allows that momentum to carry him - 270 degrees counter-clockwise - into a throw to second base. It works best with the bases loaded, when it comes disguised as the more familiar third-to-first pickoff.

I can't find a link to the video on Google or YouTube, so if someone finds it let me know.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2007
Differing Views
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Two views of Kenji Johjima's defense are offered by Prospect Insider and Detect-o-Vision.

Range isn't a good measure of defense for catchers, but PMR is neutral on Johjima. That says to me he moves as well as most catchers. It's a pretty small sample size, however, as you can see from his charts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2007
Angels in the Outfield
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It looks like the Angels are on the verge of a huge improvement in their outfield defense. Not only is Matthews going to take pressure of Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson's feet are healthy again:

But the Angels' veteran left fielder also was somewhat offended by media reports framing the Matthews signing as one that would ease the burden on Anderson and right fielder Vladimir Guerrero.

"I've heard that several times this winter, and I don't really know what it means," Anderson said. "I don't think I've been a liability out there, other than the fact I haven't been able to play. I know I took a lot of heat last year because I played hurt. I should have just not played. I wouldn't have taken any heat for that."

An inflamed arch in his left foot hindered Anderson for most of 2006 and contributed to knee and lower-back problems. He was relegated to a career-high 45 games at designated hitter, but in 94 games in the outfield, Anderson didn't commit an error.

Vlad was actually okay on fly balls last year. He basically performed up to expectations. It was Anderson who needed help in the gaps. If Garret's feet are indeed better, we should see good fielding across the board in the Angels' outfield.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 20, 2007
Back to School
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I'll be attending Andy Andres Sabermetrics 101 class tonight for the lecture on defense. Required reading this week was the PMR archive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 19, 2007
Emphasis on Defense
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Ron Washington drilled into the Texas pitching staff the importance of fielding their position, using the Detroit Tigers World Series performance as an example. The pitchers then went through their drills:

And so for about 45 minutes on Sunday, Rangers' pitchers shuttled through three different stations.

At one, they fielded slow-rolling grounders and practiced getting into throwing position without ever releasing a ball. At a second station, they fielded hard-hit ground balls. At the third, they raced to first to be prepared for tosses when the first baseman had to make the play.

None of it was new. It's a drill that goes on in every camp for at least 10 days.

Often that is the end of it. It may be for the Rangers, too, but during his interview, Washington brought up the idea of occasionally taking defensive practice during the season.

It's amazing to me that pitchers don't do defensive drills during the season. Once a week for 45 minutes, would likely be good for all of them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 16, 2007
Where's Griffey
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It looks like Ken Griffey, Jr. is going to start the season in centerfield for the Reds. Red Reporter disagrees.

Why is there so much dismissal of Chris Denorfia? The Reds don't seem to take him seriously, which is bizarre to me because you'd think he'd fit the profile of what Krivsky likes in a player. His effort level is off the charts, and he's a good defender.

Denorfia owns a very good minor league OBA and a good major league OBA for a good defensive centerfielder. He's 27 for the 2007 season, and should be at the top of his game. He'll likely get on base at a .360 clip and catch the ball. I agree with Red Reporter, it's an obvious move, especially given Griffey's poor range.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 15, 2007
Kills and Holds
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John Walsh delivers his outfield arm rankings for 2006 at The Hardball Times. I especially like the graph he includes, showing where the outfielders lie on a runners held vs. runners killed basis. The upper right quadrant is fascinating. It's the quadrant where fielders are good at both, but within that quadrant an increase in an ability to kill a runner leads to a decrase in the ability to hold a runner. So no one comes close to being great at both.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 14, 2007
Pie vs. Patterson
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Felix Pie's defense is the reason the Cub Reporter thinks the rookie will get more time to develop than Corey Patterson:

Is Felix Pie ready, then? Probably not, if ready means doing much more than flashing his offensive potential. But great athletes learn to hit, largely because their defense buys them the time that Jason Dubois won't have. Meanwhile Pie can anchor center field, which is something, not nothing. Cub fans in particular might have a problem with this patient approach because it didn't work with Corey Patterson. We waited and waited and he never got better.

The problem with Corey Patterson, I would argue, was not so much his slow progress as a hitter but the fact that his defense couldn't carry him, get him over the rough spots, ease the pressure. Bottom line, he was not a great fielder, and it's a little mysterious why, since he could run and he could throw. But the catching part sometimes eluded him. Midway through his tenure with the Cubs, I started asking myself, if he's a great fielder, how come he never makes great plays? My teenage son used to put together homemade highlight reels, and once he asked me to sit down to watch a collection of Patterson web-gems. I said, okay, but look closely and you'll see that in every catch his left elbow is bent. And it was true, both when he dove and when he leaped. There was something tentative about it. The sort of thing that Juan Pierre did ten times last year, where you lay flat out in a dive, parallel to the ground, arm and glove fully extended-Patterson didn't do that. He lacked the physical commitment, or courage, that defines an athlete. Patterson was the image of an athlete. He may have been born to play a great athlete in a movie. But he wasn't one. Several scouts out there with egg on their faces should be implementing a new Patterson Rule: don't say a guy has five tools until you've seen him do something special in the field. Patterson is partly a victim of bad scouting (he said, with great hindsight).

It may be six, seven years before we know what kind of hitter Pie is going to become, especially in terms of power numbers. But it will only take about a month to tell if he's the real deal as an athlete. If he is, then the comparisons with Patterson should stop right there.


Posted by StatsGuru at 12:54 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
January 28, 2007
Helton vs. Youkilis
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Here's my latest video, a quick look at Todd Helton and Kevin Youkilis fielding grounders.

Here's the full set of charts for Helton and Youkilis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:44 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
January 22, 2007
Soriano in Center
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Over the weekend, Alfonso Soriano agreed to play centerfield, opening up a spot for Cliff Floyd on the Cubs roster.

The Floyd deal, which might be completed this week, has been in the works since the winter meetings, but the Cubs weren't sure whether they would add Floyd or a veteran center fielder to hold down the fort until prospect Felix Pie is ready at midseason. Floyd, a former Thornwood star, is expected to serve as a fourth outfielder, giving left fielder Matt Murton and right fielder Jacque Jones regular rest.

So does this push Pie back in the depth chart? Or will the Cubs look to make a trade once Pie is ready to play?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
January 07, 2007
Combining Metrics
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Lee Panas combines four measures of range into one by treating them as four voting systems and averaging the ranks. We used to do this sort of combination when I worked in information retrieval and we wanted to combine the results from multiple search engines. In general, it's a good way to combine various opinions.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 05, 2007
Defensive Positioning
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I'd like to explore positioning as part of the Probabilistic Model of Range. One thing that I believe would be easy to record is the direction and distance the fielder moved to get to a ball. The direction could be coded using the digits 1-9 as follows:

123
456
789

Where 5 would be straight at the fielder, 8 would be in front, 4 to the fielder's right, etc. What I'd like to get opinions on is if the X and Y axis should be fixed for all fielders or float depending on the position. For centerfielder and pitchers, the X axis would be a line that went through home plate and second base, while the Y axis would go through third and first. But for a shortstop, the X axis could go through second and third base, with the Y axis perpendicular to that. In the case of a fixed axes through 2nd-home and 3rd-first, a ball in the hole that's fielded by the short stop would be coded a 7. In the second case, where we adjust the axes to the fielder, it would be a 4, since the fielder moved to his right. My feeling is the second way is superior. However, with so many shifts being employed now, which often put the shortstop on the second base side of the bag, the fixed axes approach might be more accurate. I'd like to hear your opinions on the matter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
November 29, 2006
James on Defense
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Baseball Digest Daily interviews Bill James on the 2006 Fielding Bible Awards. Here he talks about Mike Lowell:

Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air.

The interview is definitely worth the read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
August 23, 2006
Fan Scouting
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It's time once again for you to be the scout and help Tangotiger judge defensive ability. I believe this is the third year Tom conducted this survey, using the knowledge of fans to rate the defensive ability of players. The more input he gets, the better his results. So if you watch baseball, go to his site and take part.

There is an enormous amount of untapped knowledge here. There are 70 million fans at MLB parks every year, and a whole lot more watching the games on television. When I was a teenager, I had no problem picking out Tim Wallach as a great fielding 3B, a few years before MLB coaches did so. And, judging by the quantity of non-stop standing ovations Wallach received, I wasn't the only one in Montreal whose eyes did not deceive him. Rondel White, Marquis Grissom, Larry Walker, Andre Dawson, Hubie Brooks, Ellis Valentine. We don't need stats to tell us which of these does not belong.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2006
Who's Got It?
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WasWatching reviews the botched popup that made the Orioles blowout a slightly larger blowout.

In the YES replays, you clearly see Jeter moving his mouth when the pop is in the air. It appears that he's saying "I got it!" a few times. In the same replays, you never see A-Rod open his mouth, at all.

Rodriguez was clearly planted under the ball. He was in perfect position to catch it. Jeter had to range to his right to get towards the ball. I would offer that Derek had to move around 10 feet, away from his position on the pitch, towards the foul line, to get to where the ball was going to land.

Jeter went behind A-Rod and their gloves bumped as they both reached up for the ball. That appeared to be the only serious contact between the two players. It seemed as if their gloves met just as the ball was going into the pocket of A-Rod's mitt - and that knocked the ball loose.

The rule on the Yankees should be that Jeter catches all pop ups, even the ones hit directly at another fielder, to make up for all the ground balls that go through the shortstop position. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 17, 2006
Cruz Missile
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The Tigers are up 3-0 after three innings, but the bottom of the third ended with Dmitri Young thrown out at the plate by Nelson Cruz. Young was at second with two out when Pudge Rodriguez singled to right. Gene Lamont waved Young around third. Cruz fired home, and Gerald Laird waited a good two second before he needed to make the tag. It's not often you see someone thrown out at the play by 20 feet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 10, 2006
Double Them Off
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Correction: I had the wrong numbers this morning. A program I thought was computing GDPs was computing something else. Sorry for the confusion. This post is correct.

The Arizona Diamondback turned five double plays last night, setting a team record.

The Diamondbacks turned a club-record five double plays - three 5-4-3s, a 4-6-3 and a 1-4-3 - as Batista was able to pick up win No. 10 despite allowing the Giants to begin three innings with back-to-back singles.

Arizona ranks third in GDPs induced:

DefenseGDP
KC115
COL112
OAK110
ARI110
STL107
HOU105
FLA104
LAD103
PHI