Art Martone donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to the Projo Sox Blog.

George Kottaras gets a chance to catch Tim Wakefield this week:

After all, Kottaras, 25, might have a shot to become the knuckleballer's personal batterymate.

The early odds-on favorite for that position is Josh Bard, but anything can happen during spring training. Bard has caught Wakefield in all three of his outings during camp, but Kottaras will get his opportunity to work with the veteran in a game on Thursday.

During their conversation on Sunday, Wakefield told Kottaras to take charge out there and have fun with it. Red Sox manager Terry Francona has said he wants to see how Kottaras can handle the job.

"We need to do that," Francona said.

Bard did a poor job with Wakefield in his last stint with Boston, so the Red Sox need a backup plan.

Many years ago in one of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James explored the possibility that Ozzie Smith saved the Cardinals 100 runs with his glove (according to Whitey Herzog). James pegged it at closer to 25. Tom Tango looks at the savings a great fielder provides and finds it's about 25 runs. Nice to see different studies years apart come to the same conclusion.

J.C. Bradbury excerpts the new book from John Dewan, The Fielding Bible--Volume II. They now use run potentials to assign run values to +/- scores, and I think I can adapt something similar to the probabilistic model of range.

Hat tip, The Book Blog.

Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Josh Bard did not let a Tim Wakefield pitch get by Wednesday night.

Michael Walsh says we're all wrong about Derek Jeter's defense, because his actual errors haven't cost the Yankees that many games!

Regardless of the conclusions of any individual study, scientific or otherwise, there is no question that Derek Jeter is nothing less than a solid defender. For anyone to even infer that he may be the worst fielder in all of baseball is simply ridiculous. Truth be told, the current version of Derek Jeter is flashing better leather than the 23-year-old kid who made those costly errors in 1997.

In 2008 Jeter made fewer errors than all but one American League shortstop (Gold Glove winner Michael Young). Yuniesky Betancourt made 21 errors and swung a very average stick. I have yet to see one article proclaiming Betancourt the "least effective" defensive player in the game. Perhaps that's because articles and studies about Yuniesky Betancourt are about as interesting as an Andy Warhol flick. Derek Jeter's celebrity is enormous. I can't think of another shortstop in the big leagues that makes commercials and dates movie stars. Is there a better way to get people talking about your study or newspaper article than to discount the abilities of one of the most recognizable athletes on the planet?

It's not about the errors Jeter makes, it's about all the balls that he never gets a glove on that other shortstops turn into outs. I'm surprised an article like this made it to Dugout Central.

Lyflines examines the idea that Jason Varitek improves the Boston pitching staff.

Brian Cartwright developed a probabilistic model of catcher caught stealings. The three Molina brothers all come out near the top of the list in 2008.

Via The Detroit Tigers Weblog, Lynn Henning does a good job of explaining the defensive statistics the Tigers are using to evaluate players and improve the left side fielders.

Dombrowski talked about defense as coverage during Saturday's TigerFest at Comerica Park.

"A lot of guys can make the stationary play, but they have no range to their left or right," Dombrowski said. "(Those balls) are base hits, not outs. Brandon Inge and Adam Everett get not only the stationary ball hit at them, but they have range."
Much more range, in fact, than their predecessors, Guillen and Renteria. In plus-minus rankings by Dewan that document how many more, or how many fewer, ground balls are gathered by a particular fielder, Renteria was 28th among shortstops in 2008.

Guillen, who was being asked to adjust to his second new position in one season, was 23rd among third basemen.

It's nice to see these statistics working their way into newspaper articles. However, I'd like to see something on the offensive tradeoffs here.

The Hardball Times publishes the best outfield arms of 2008.

DRays Bay examines the reasons for Jason Barlett's defensive decline in 2008.

Nico at Athletics Nation wonders if Oakland signs Giambi if they'll use a shift of infielders to make up for Jason's lack of range. Chase Utley appeared to shade toward first base to help out Ryan Howard this year, so it just might work.

Tom Tango compares both UZR models with PMR at The Book Blog.

Dan Turkenkopf runs correlations of UZR and PMR and I find them surprisingly low, given the two systems use the same data.

Both PMR and UZR were calculated using the Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data set this season. I wonder if David or MGL might be able to give some ideas as to where the differences might come from.

I don't know enough about the UZR calculations to speculate. I base my models mostly on visiting players in parks, however. UZR might use all the data. I also don't know if UZR, like +/-, doesn't penalize players for outs made by others. In PMR. If the right fielder catches a ball that the centerfielder might be able to catch, the centerfielder is penalized. In +/-, the centerfielder is not. Given the low correlation with centerfielders, I suspect that's the case.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is now available on FanGraphs.com. The version on FanGraphs uses BIS data, not STATS, Inc. data, so it will be interesting to see how it compares to the Probabilistic Model of Range, which also uses BIS. Taking a quick look at shortstop, Jeter finishes in the middle of the pack, just like in PMR.

Jeter is really getting hammered in the media for his rank in the Fielding Bible Awards. How many years does he need to rank at the bottom of shortstops before the Yankees move him?

Centerfield, right now, is still open. Put Jeter there where his speed and fly ball instincts work. Especially if the Yankees end up with Derek Lowe, they are going to need a shortstop who can gobble up the ball.

For those of you who are waiting, Probabilistic Model of Range rankings are coming soon.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff proposes a rule for Ryan Howard and throws.

Spitting Seeds is concerned B.J. Upton plays too shallow in centerfield. I think most outfielder play too deep, so I can't really complain about this too much.

Mike Cameron explains here why he misjudged the ball that led to the Phillies runs.

"I cut across like it was going to go down but it kept rising," said Cameron. "My first instinct was that it was not going to travel, because of the way the wind was blowing. It just kind of took off."

Mike chases fly balls differently than most outfielders. Instead of tracking the ball all the way, Mike developed an excellent pattern recognizer that allows him to judge where the ball will go off the bat and run there without following the ball too closely. Today, that recognizer made a mistake. Despite that, he almost made a great catch.

It's a good thing Corey Hart stands 6' 6". On a Werth fly to right, Corey fought the sun and picked up the ball at the last second. He stretched out his arm and just reached the ball, tumbling up holding on. The catch came with two on and two out and preserved the Brewers 3-1 lead at the end of five.

A new study reveals why line drives hit right at an outfielder are so difficult to catch:

Then they presented their subjects with two targets moving at the same speed -- one laterally and one in depth -- and asked them to decide which was faster. On average, they said the lateral motion was 1.3 to 2.7 times faster than an object at the identical speed but moving straight at them.

Finally, they asked their subjects to estimate the angle at which an object was approaching them. The trajectory of an object moving close to the midline of vision was consistently harder to predict than objects moving at greater angles to the observer.

In other words, when the object was moving directly toward them, people were terrible at estimating distance, bad at guessing speed and highly inaccurate at predicting trajectory -- a combination all but guaranteed to increase the opposition's batting average.

Very cool. So next time an outfielder misses a hard shot right at him, cut the player some slack.

Once again, Tom Tango is looking for your help in rating fielders. Here's your chance to add your expertise to the fans scouting report.

The Phillies make two nice catches in the top of the sixth against the Dodgers. Loney hit a long drive to deep centerfield, and Shane Victorino ran it down, making it look easy. With Garciaparra at first with two out, Martin hit a pop foul down the rightfield line. Ryan Howard raced down the line dived near the stands and made the catch. The Phillies are known for their offense, but in a 1-1 game they are flashing a little leather.

Howard, who made the great play to end the top of the inning, leads off the bottom half.

Lyle Overbay just saved the game for the Blue Jays. With the score 2-1 in favor of Toronto in the top of the ninth, Alex Rodriguez hits one off the end of the bat that lands over Overbay's head in right. A-Rod wasn't running that hard, thinking it would either be caught or fall for a single. The ball however, rolled away from Lyle, and Alex turned it on for second. Overbay ran the ball down, slid picking it up and made a perfect throw to second to nab Alex. B.J. Ryan retires the last two batters and Toronto wins 2-1. They are now just one game behind the Yankees for third place in the AL East.

Rare poor defense by the Angels allows the Yankees to tie the game in the eighth. Ivan Rodriguez singles (he homered earlier). Melky Cabrera is sent to sacrifice, but Shields falls behind 3-0, and Melky takes two to run the count 3-2. At that point, Justin Christian pinch runs, and starts on the next pitch. Aybar moves to cover second, and Melky grounds one right to him. He's not ready for it, and the ball bounds off his chest for an error. Then, the two attempt a double steal. Figgins is in as Damon squared to bunt, and Mathis throws to a back-peddling Figgins, but the ball goes into leftfield. Christian scores, and the Yankees now have 2nd and 3rd with one out. Usually, it's the Angels speed and the Yankees poor defense that makes the difference between these two teams.

Update: Abreu walks to load the bases. A-Rod hits a grounder to third, but instead of a double play, Figgins bobbles the ball and doesn't get an out. The Yankees take a 10-9 lead.

Update: Cano knocks in two with a single and the Yankees take a 12-9 lead.

Nate DiMeo pens an article for Slate titled, "Derek Jeter vs. Objective Reality." He's asking why there is a disconnect between what fans think of Jeter's defense and what statistical research shows. There's another question he asks as well:

If the sabermetric case against Jeter's glove has long been closed, why do the sabermetricians keep opening it? In an e-mail, Tom Tango joked that Jeter comes up again and again "because he gets far more girls than his fielding talents should allow." And there's probably something to that: The stat guys want to kick a little sand back at the press-box bullies--all of whom seem to have Word macros for phrases like "nerd writing in his mother's basement"--who lazily swallow the myth of Jeter's fielding prowess.

But the better answer is that Jeter's defense is at the heart of the conflict between sabermetrics and traditional baseball fandom. A recent article by Baseball Prospectus' Dan Fox poses the age-old question, "[W]hat would Sir Francis Bacon, the English philosopher and statesman, have thought of Jeter's defense?" Fox, who recently announced his departure from the blog world to join the front office of the Pittsburgh Pirates, looks back to Bacon's notion that people tend to think that memorable incidents define the whole. So we see Jeter flip the ball to Posada or emerge bloodied after leaping into the stands to catch a Trot Nixon foul ball and think "great fielder." Bacon, like today's statistical innovators, would seek out objective scientific data to understand the larger truth about Mr. Jeter. These data show that--yes, Sox fans--Jeter totally sucks.

I would note, too, that the case for OBA was made in quite the same way. Sabermetricans talked and talked about OBA for years before people started to pay attention. It was probably Sandy Alderson who helped move it into the main stream. I remember an ESPN broadcast where Gary Thorne suddenly started praising OBA because Alderson talked about it in an interview.

At some point, a GM will say something like, "We signed him as a free agent, because despite all the errors our probabilistic models show he turns lots of tough hits into outs." Then these models will start gaining acceptance.

Thanks to Nate for a link to the Probabilistic Mode of Range.

I just saw the highlight of Matt Treanor's double play last night. The ball was bunted, and Matt grabbed it out of the air and threw to second for the double play. Seems like a good time to recall this Treanor story.

The Diamondbacks get a two-run homer from Stephen Drew to take a 2-0 lead over the Marlins in the third.

Joe Christensen describes the fielding drill that helped Alexi Casilla make a spectacular play Wednesday night. It's one of the little things Ron Gardenhire works on to make the team better.

Pizza Cutter is doing some very good work on defense at MVN. I like the way he's trying to separate the ability to get to a ball from the ability to field the ball.

Jim Leyland adds another wrinkle to the Tigers defense. He's going to use Carlos Guillen in leftfield sometimes to get Inge games at third base:

Manager Jim Leyland said Saturday that Guillen probably will start in left field today against the Mariners.

Leyland had said after Friday night's game that he might use Guillen in left at least occasionally.

"This is how I can get (Guillen) in the lineup if I want to play (Brandon) Inge at third," Leyland said after Friday night's game.

To his credit, Guillen is game. He was signed as an outfielder but moved to the infield when he started in pro ball.

"I'm not afraid to play left," Guillen said. "You have to have confidence to play this game. You play this game with passion."

Ryan Langerhans is back with the Nationals and just made a possible game saving catch in San Diego. With the score tied at two in the bottom of the eighth, Kevin Kouzmanoff launches one to the stand in leftfield. Ryan leaped, got his glove over the railing, and pulled the ball back in to preserve the tie. He's also singled and driven in a run.

Update: The catch is for naught as Jody Gerut hits a three-run homer down the rightfield line for a 5-2 lead.

Nick Cafardo makes Dustin Pedroia the center of his piece on the Red Sox 5-3 win over the Mariners Monday night. He notes a defensive play in the third as a key moment in the game:

Take the play he made in the third inning of last night's 5-3 win over the Mariners: runners at first and second, two outs, when Jose Lopez hit a ball that for all intents and purposes should have gone through into right field for a run-producing hit. Yet Pedroia, who was positioned more toward second base, got a good jump on the ball and made a diving play to the first base side to retire Lopez and keep Bartolo Colon out of peril.

(Actually, there were runners at first and third.)

I saw the play last night and watched it again this morning. It was a nice play by Dustin, the kind that separates a good fielder from a bad one. It's an easy out if the fielder is positioned differently. Pedroia showed on that play what we normally consider range, the ability to cover a lot of ground to get to a ball.

When I run the Probabalistic Model of Range, I define range as the ability to turn a ball into an out. Positioning plays a large role in that. One would expect the players that can make up for being out of position on a ball with their ability to cover ground will tend to score higher in the rankings. Maybe when we get Joe Maddon's GPS system we'll know for sure.

I like the way Joe Maddon thinks about defense.

NESN is reporting that Varitek is the first catcher to receive four no hitters. They left Torborg off their graphic as catchers who caught three. Can anyone think of anyone else who caught four?

Add to that Schilling's near no-hitter last season, and Varitek's had quite the low-hit career.

Hank Blalock volunteered to move to first base when he comes off the disabled list:

"It's his decision," Texas manager Ron Washington said. "He said he had looked at the team and thought he could help the squad more at first. This is Hank just being a very intelligent baseball man,"

Blalock has played 686 career games at third base and none at first. Washington was giving Blalock some pointers during infield practice Sunday.

The Rangers are sending Blalock to extended spring training in Arizona on Monday. Washington said Blalock will probably stay in Arizona until he comes off the disabled list -- which may be as early as Friday.

"It's a new position for me and I'm not sure how I'll do," Blalock said. "I wouldn't have initiated it if it wasn't something I was excited about."

Blalock was hitting better this season before he tore the hamstring. Rangers this season have gotten a .602 OPS out of their first basemen coming into Sunday's games.

You don't see this too often. Kuroda strikes out Aybar, but the pitch is not caught cleanly. With a man on second and two out, Aybar starts running to first. The catcher, Bennett, throws the ball over the head of the first baseman down the leftfield line. Kotchman scores from second, and Aybar turns on the afterburner and reaches third base. A strikeout triple! The Angels take a 1-0 lead in the fourth.

Richard Durrett made the case this morning in the Dallas Morning News that the Rangers did what they needed to change themselves for the better, including defense:

The club that bobbled balls, missed cut-off men, made errant throws and beat itself to start the season has morphed into one that is putting together an impressive highlight reel of defensive plays, adding four more to the collection Tuesday.

And it isn't just the defense. These Rangers are manufacturing runs, running the bases smartly, delivering key hits, and, most important, pitching well. Consequently, they are winning games.

That's true, but everyonce in a while the wind shifts back to the old ways. A bobbled ground ball and a mis-read line drive lead to two innings in the seventh inning today, giving the Mariners a 3-2 lead. Scott Feldman pitched very well today, but the two unearned runs mean he's now in line for a loss.

Update: Hamilton makes up for the misplayed line drive with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game at three.

With men on first and third and two out in the top of the ninth, Franklin Gutierrez came up with the second great dive of the game. Mench hit a high liner into right center. It looked like it would drop to plate the first run of the game, but it hung up just long enough for Franklin to get over and make the diving catch. Two batters earlier, with a man on second, Rios hit a hard line drive snared by Victor Martinez at first. Lee completes nine scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 0.67. Now the Indians need to plate a run to get him a win.

Marcum is out of the game after eight innings. Ryan tries to preserve the tie.

Update: Ryan gets two popups as he retires the side in order. The game will be decided in extra innings. The Indians still have just two hits.

Update: Stewart breaks the scoreless tie in the tenth, and Hill follows with a two-run single to give Toronto a 3-0 lead.

Andrew Marshall writes:

Asdrubal Cabrera just turned an unassisted triple play behind Cliff Lee. This offense (Toronto) has become comically bad.

The Indians, of course, have the only unassisted triple play in World Series history, way back in 1920. This evening, the runners were going, Overbay hit a line drive that Asdrubal caught on a dive. The runners had already advanced a base, so Cabrera just had to tag the base and the runner from first to complete the TP. The game remains scoreless in the top of the sixth.

It must be tough to see pop ups in foul area on the third base side in Arizona. Mark Reynolds over-ran a ball near the stands earlier, and just now Schneider called off Wright, then lost the ball. The Mets lead 2-1 in the bottom of the fifth.

My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA.

Jim Leyland decided to switch Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen defensively. So now Miguel's followed the full Albert Pujols path.

There was plenty of praise for Chase Utley's glove last night:

With the bases loaded and one out and the Phillies trailing 3-0, second baseman Chase Utley launched himself parallel to the infield dirt and somehow managed to snag Clint Barmes' hard-hit chopper that seemed destined for centerfield. After landing flat on his torso, he raised his glove and shoveled the ball to shortstop Eric Bruntlett, who made a quick throw to first base for an inning-ending doubleplay.

"After the game, I told him 'Thank you,' " said righthander Kyle Kendrick, who pitched five innings and gave up all five Rockies runs on home runs by Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

Utley saved two runs, for sure.

Who knows how many may have followed?

"Bases loaded, it kind of slowed them down a little bit," Utley said. "A base hit there obviously would have hurt a lot."

Power and defense at second base is a rare combination. Morgan and Sandberg are the only two in my lifetime who did both extremely well. Utley was among the best second baseman in range as measured by PMR last season.

The Tigers broadcast pointed out something about the defensive alignment against Magglio Ordonez. The first baseman is playing way off the line, in what would usually be the hole between second and first. According to them, Ordonez hit a good many balls there last season, and few down the first base line. It's a good defensive adjustment so far, as they've kept Magglio's average down to .264.

When I was in college, my roommates and I used to kid that the threshold for an error was set too low. Our opinion was that if the greatest fielder at the position would have made the play, then it should go as an error.

With Kyle Lohse at the plate and the bases loaded, he slapped a ball to the left of Counsell at third. Counsell was in, he dove, but the ball went under his glove for a two-run single. Since Graig Nettles would have not only snagged the ball, but turned it into a double play, Counsell should really get an E5.. :-)

By the way, I love Brian Barton's socks. He's mixed a 50s uniform with a wild hairdo. The contrast looks great.

Alexei Ramirez starts in centerfield for the White Sox today and makes a spectacular throw to get Emil Brown. Brown hit a ball into the gap in right-center. Ramirez got to the hit in a hurry, grabbed the ball spun and threw a strike to second base without setting himself. Brown was out by a mile. Alexei showed off everything on that play; speed, soft hands, and an accurate and powerful arm. Look for that play on Web Gems tonight.

The game is scoreless in the second.

I don't think of Victor Martinez as a defensive catcher, but he just made a great play on Coco Crisp. Crisp laid a bunt down the third base line that died at the grass cut out in front of the plate. Martinez sprang like a cat on the ball threw off balance and got Crisp at first. He showed quickness and a strong, accurate arm on that play.

Soccer Dad notes the Orioles posted a .772 DER in their first seven games. They're like a black hole for balls in play.

Orlando Cabrera made a rare poor play for the White Sox. With a man on first, he ranged to his right for a ground ball off the bat of Polanco. Cabrera got there in time, but the ball skipped under his glove. He appeared to be looking for a higher bounce. The official scorer gave Polanco a hit, and a double play cleared the extra runner. The White Sox and Tigers are tied at five in the top of the fifth. Carlos Quentin hit his first home run for the pale hose.

Sox Machine notes the biggest threat to Jerry Owens's health after he returns to the White Sox.

The Soxaholix makes Kevin Youkilis the center of water cooler talk today for passing Steve Garvey for errorless games at first base. Keep in mind, however, that first basemen don't make a lot of errors in general. As for range, Kevin is a bit above average.

Kevin Youkilis can tie a fielding record tonight.

Emil Brown hits a ball to the warning track in straight away center than Ellsbury catches with a backward leap. He crashes into the wall but holds on to the ball. The NESN announcers are calling it a great catch, but I think he leaped too early. If he stays on his feet and keeps running I think he gets under the ball. Still, and out's and out, and it must be difficult playing under that white ceiling.

The A's go 1-2-3 in the eighth. The Sox have three outs to get one run. Lowell, Moss and Varitek are due up.

Giambi receives praise for his play at first this spring:

"The thing I've learned is that you have to change your training," Giambi said. "It stunk going through everything, but it all was a blessing in disguise. Even tearing my foot."

Giambi did much more sprint work this off-season and worked on explosive techniques that made him quicker on his feet.

"A few years ago I would have said there was no chance I'd be training like I am now," said Giambi, who was batting .406 this spring. Tino Martinez is surprised at how well Giambi is playing.

"He's actually moving around better than I thought," Martinez said. "I think he was feeling tentative in the past. The whole key is moving your feet but not being afraid to make a mistake. You don't want to hold the ball when you got an easy out at second and just get the guy at first. In the past he would do that. Now he's not afraid to go and get lead runners. That really helps the pitching staff."

We'll see long that lasts during the regular season. Having Giambi at first, however, gives the Yankees their best offensive team.

The Transaction Guy makes a good case for the Padres 2008 outfield defense hurting the pitching staff this season.

Via WasWatching, Joel Sherman joins the Jeter debate:

But what is being missed here is the preponderance of evidence against Jeter's defensive game. This is not just one set of Ivy League academics calling Jeter the majors' worst fielding shortstop. Just about every respected baseball statistician who has publicized results reveals Jeter is, at best, among the poorest defensive shortstops in the game.

You can attack methodology; you can say no perfect formula has yet been devised to encapsulate all the elements - positioning, speed of the hit ball, field conditions - into a single defensive statistic. However, these metrics keep evolving in sophistication. And Jeter keeps faring poorly in nearly every study year after year. Do you think there is a conspiracy? Do you think statisticians en masse have covertly met and made their quest to soil Jeter's glovely reputation?

"This study has been done a zillion times and the same conclusion is reached every time," an AL official said. "What do you think that means?"

For Jeter devotees, it means assailing the geeks. But as an AL executive said, "this isn't geeks vs. jocks. This is myth vs. reality." In reality, most baseball officials laugh off the three Gold Gloves Jeter won from 2004-06 in the way they do the four Bernie Williams won as having more to do with offense, fame and winning than with actual defense.

I'm very glad this debate is now fully out in the open. It's easy to dismiss one study, but when all of them point in the same direction, year after year, people start to notice. It looks like one of those people was indeed Jeter:

Perhaps the strongest condemnation came from Jeter, who said, "Last year, I didn't have a good year defensively."

It doesn't sound like much, especially since Jeter limited a serial inadequacy to just 2007. Except Jeter is not one to ever publicly apologize for, or criticize, his own game. But this is more than words with Jeter. He rededicated himself in the offseason with exercises designed to improve his lateral quickness and first-step explosiveness. One Yankee official saw this version of Jeter and said, "He set the clock back five years."

"I'm a lot quicker, a lot more agile," Jeter said. "Only time will tell, but that is what I worked on."

Actions speak louder than words.

Via WasWatching, Jeter says no to a position shift:

Many scouts believe Jeter would be able to make an easy transition to the outfield, where his speed, strong arm and terrific instincts would make him a natural. Asked about the possibility, Jeter waves off the question before it's finished.

"I ain't going out there," Jeter said. "It's not as easy as it sounds to just pick up a glove and say, 'I'm going to be an outfielder today.' It doesn't work like that."

As for his current position, Jeter feels he's a better shortstop now than he was during the early years of his career thanks to experience. By making the necessary adjustments on a regular basis, Jeter is constantly addressing what he feels are his strengths and weaknesses in the field. Just don't ask him what those are.

"I'll leave that to the computers to figure out," he said with a grin.

He doesn't move to his left or right well.

Via MLB FanHouse, Derek Jeter and Gene Michael talk about the shortstop's poor range:

"Maybe it was a computer glitch," the three-time Gold Glove winner said of the report. But Jeter just didn't laugh this one off. He defended himself, saying, "Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Jeter, 33, pointed out you can get the exact same ground ball off the exact same pitcher and there could be an average runner or there could be Ichiro running. "How can you compute that?" he asked.

You can't. That's one reason Yankees senior advisor Gene Michael was infuriated by the University of Pennsylvania report.

"Something like that is a disgrace," the scout said. "It made me ill when I read that article. First of all, what pitching staff was out there? Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls.

"You simply can't do that by those charts, that's a bunch of baloney," Michael added. "It's disgraceful. You have to use a scout's eye to determine range."

Of course, we do take most of those factors into account. For every Ichiro running to first, there's a Jason Giambi. Over time, those factors even out. As for the pitching staff, the Yankees have undergone numerous changes over the last few years, and somehow Derek stays at the bottom of the pack.

I'd also like to comment on one thing from the FanHouse post (emphasis added):

Baseball's different. It's very easy to watch Jeter fly deep in the hole, plant, pivot and gun a runner and come to the conclusion that he's a great fielder. It's a pretty play, full of athleticism and grace and that's more memorable than a grounder that finds a hole or a double play that doesn't get turned. That doesn't make it more important, though. These kinds of analysis help us understand baseball in its fullest context. That context, however, doesn't matter much when Jeter cuts off a poor throw, flips it to the plate and saves a run.

If Jeter actually planted and pivoted in the hole, I think his numbers would be better. What he actually does is stop, jump and throw, using only his arm to get the ball to first. His movement is more like a skater transferring kinetic energy from the horizontal to the vertical with a toe pick. None of that energy is being used to hurl the ball toward first base. I cringe every time he tries to make that play, because no matter how good it looks, it's the wrong way to throw. If he stopped, planted and used his whole body to send the ball across the diamond, he'd make a stronger and more accurate throw. How many times does that toss pull the first baseman off the bag or sail over his head? David Eckstein can make the plant and throw play, why can't the bigger and stronger Jeter?

Update: Tango's take.

Update: 100% Injury Rate chimes in. He points to some old data that shows Jeter wasn't the best fielding shortstop on his team, with the same pitching staff. The same things shows up in 2007 PMR. As a team, the Yankees shortstops produced 38 fewer outs than expected. Jeter, however, produced forty fewer outs than expected! So the replacements were a bit better.

One of the things to come out of the talk yesterday was that Troy Tulowitzki seemed to be covering for Garrett Atkins defensive woes. Tulowitzki produced 50 outs more than expected in 2007, while Atkins missed about 48 outs. You can see from their ground ball PMR graphs, that the difference happens in the hole:

Alan Schwarz, during the talk, wondered if this was more a reflection of strategy on the part of the Rockies as opposed a Garrett Atkins fielding deficiency. Apparently not.

Last spring, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had to take it. This year, as a rich, budding star, he's dishing it out.

Saturday, Tulo's target was third baseman Garrett Atkins.

"Atkins doesn't do much over there," Tulowitzki said with a sly grin. "He kind of just stands there and watches balls."

Tulowitzki was kidding, but there's a element of truth there. Note that the Rockies didn't lock up Atkins long term.

Hat tip, Purple Row.

One criticism leveled at the Probabilistic Model of Range this year is that due to building the models based on the visiting team fielders, teams with good offenses get a bonus defensively. The example given is the Yankees, but there are other high offense teams ranked high in terms of PMR.

The idea is that since the Yankees hit well, their opponents DER must by definition be low. A ball put in play by the Yankees must have a lower probability of being turned into an out. This causes the model to underestimate the fielding ability of opponents, and over estimate the fielding ability of the Yankees. If the model contained one parameter, ballpark, then this would be absolutely true. However, there are six parameters, including a vector indicating the direction of the ball. I propose that the Yankees hit better than their opponents not because a random ball in play has a higher probability of falling for a hit, but because the Yankees do a better job of hitting balls where they are tough to field.

The following table shows the number of ground balls hit by the Yankees and their opponents by vector:

Vector	Yankees	Opponents	Predicted DER
25	4	4	0.000
26	12	14	0.000
27	37	26	0.766
28	118	57	0.898
29	175	118	0.706
30	193	156	0.671
31	148	119	0.844
32	111	82	0.934
33	164	136	0.868
34	114	105	0.585
35	100	74	0.535
36	117	124	0.624
37	101	108	0.617
38	116	150	0.838
39	119	131	0.865
40	163	139	0.764
41	165	174	0.550
42	110	130	0.688
43	61	55	0.847
44	35	40	0.572
45	7	13	0.010
46	5	5	0.000

As you can see, the low probability vectors are 29-30, the shortstop hole, 34-37, up the middle, 41-42, the second base hole, and 44, right down the first base line. I'm not looking at the foul vectors where a ball is always a hit. Breaking these down:

Ground balls	Yankees	Opponents
In Holes	1110	1029
At Fielders	882	895

So the Yankees hit more grounders where they are less likely to be fielded, and fewer grounders where they are more likely to be fielded than their opponents. Later I want to look at how the Yankees field home and road. If they field much better at home, then the objection still my have some validity.

To complete the survery of range, here are how pitchers rank. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Astros	4530	205	183.71	0.045	0.041	111.59
Padres	4476	243	228.50	0.054	0.051	106.35
Rockies	4599	218	206.59	0.047	0.045	105.52
Indians	4548	181	171.92	0.040	0.038	105.28
Mets	4362	173	164.61	0.040	0.038	105.09
White Sox	4545	196	186.52	0.043	0.041	105.08
Yankees	4511	181	172.92	0.040	0.038	104.67
Tigers	4486	167	159.73	0.037	0.036	104.55
Red Sox	4226	149	142.79	0.035	0.034	104.35
Mariners	4535	174	167.33	0.038	0.037	103.99
Blue Jays	4349	200	194.00	0.046	0.045	103.09
Phillies	4505	193	187.33	0.043	0.042	103.02
Pirates	4608	204	200.82	0.044	0.044	101.58
Cubs	4177	166	163.95	0.040	0.039	101.25
Rangers	4518	197	195.59	0.044	0.043	100.72
Braves	4404	206	204.60	0.047	0.046	100.69
Devil Rays	4378	148	147.07	0.034	0.034	100.63
Twins	4384	150	152.30	0.034	0.035	98.49
Orioles	4403	160	162.54	0.036	0.037	98.44
Nationals	4591	167	170.78	0.036	0.037	97.78
Marlins	4491	178	182.52	0.040	0.041	97.52
Angels	4325	143	146.86	0.033	0.034	97.37
Giants	4467	159	163.87	0.036	0.037	97.03
Diamondbacks	4351	207	213.40	0.048	0.049	97.00
Cardinals	4587	158	166.21	0.034	0.036	95.06
Athletics	4499	165	174.70	0.037	0.039	94.45
Brewers	4392	179	192.64	0.041	0.044	92.92
Dodgers	4310	189	205.96	0.044	0.048	91.76
Reds	4533	162	180.13	0.036	0.040	89.93
Royals	4528	151	179.20	0.033	0.040	84.27

The Padres not only induce the most predicted outs back to the pitcher, they exceed those outs by a great deal. Maddux is one reason:

Individual Pitcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (400 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chris Sampson	414	24	15.23	0.058	0.037	157.55
Matt Cain	571	26	19.79	0.046	0.035	131.37
Chad Durbin	417	15	11.48	0.036	0.028	130.65
Shaun Marcum	456	27	20.71	0.059	0.045	130.37
Steve Trachsel	549	35	26.89	0.064	0.049	130.17
Mike Mussina	512	27	20.84	0.053	0.041	129.54
Woody Williams	632	36	27.90	0.057	0.044	129.04
Aaron Cook	572	37	28.69	0.065	0.050	128.98
Miguel Batista	615	26	20.17	0.042	0.033	128.92
Jon Garland	705	34	26.84	0.048	0.038	126.66
Kelvim Escobar	572	17	13.58	0.030	0.024	125.21
Wandy Rodriguez	536	21	16.87	0.039	0.031	124.46
Greg Maddux	681	53	42.87	0.078	0.063	123.64
Ervin Santana	457	13	10.59	0.028	0.023	122.72
Jake Peavy	571	30	24.58	0.053	0.043	122.03
Brandon Webb	692	53	43.55	0.077	0.063	121.69
Mike Bacsik	414	15	12.35	0.036	0.030	121.42
Tim Wakefield	600	24	19.83	0.040	0.033	121.05
Carlos Zambrano	610	30	25.00	0.049	0.041	119.98
Javier Vazquez	583	28	23.46	0.048	0.040	119.34
Adam Eaton	525	22	18.49	0.042	0.035	119.00
Nate Robertson	573	27	22.77	0.047	0.040	118.56
John Danks	427	15	12.83	0.035	0.030	116.94
James Shields	615	26	22.26	0.042	0.036	116.80
Justin Verlander	577	17	14.69	0.029	0.025	115.76
Chien-Ming Wang	643	34	29.61	0.053	0.046	114.84
Carlos Silva	699	27	23.54	0.039	0.034	114.70
John Smoltz	586	30	26.16	0.051	0.045	114.69
Dustin McGowan	484	31	27.18	0.064	0.056	114.04
Justin Germano	426	21	18.42	0.049	0.043	114.04
Ted Lilly	586	24	21.09	0.041	0.036	113.81
Dontrelle Willis	667	39	34.32	0.058	0.051	113.64
Kyle Davies	432	16	14.08	0.037	0.033	113.60
Sergio Mitre	522	29	25.58	0.056	0.049	113.35
Daisuke Matsuzaka	555	24	21.21	0.043	0.038	113.18
Joe Blanton	750	28	25.10	0.037	0.033	111.54
Jake Westbrook	481	27	24.51	0.056	0.051	110.17
Andy Sonnanstine	408	14	12.81	0.034	0.031	109.28
Matt Chico	548	16	14.77	0.029	0.027	108.33
Jamie Moyer	633	30	27.83	0.047	0.044	107.81
Johan Santana	555	24	22.27	0.043	0.040	107.75
Tom Glavine	674	27	25.15	0.040	0.037	107.37
C.C. Sabathia	701	24	22.47	0.034	0.032	106.80
Brett Tomko	415	16	14.99	0.039	0.036	106.77
Jarrod Washburn	627	20	18.81	0.032	0.030	106.33
Noah Lowry	502	23	21.69	0.046	0.043	106.02
Jeremy Guthrie	527	21	19.85	0.040	0.038	105.81
Chris Capuano	456	28	26.47	0.061	0.058	105.77
Fausto Carmona	654	36	34.14	0.055	0.052	105.43
Roy Halladay	722	36	34.31	0.050	0.048	104.94
Mark Buehrle	648	33	31.47	0.051	0.049	104.86
Bronson Arroyo	661	27	25.79	0.041	0.039	104.71
David Bush	594	24	23.12	0.040	0.039	103.80
Kyle Kendrick	401	20	19.29	0.050	0.048	103.69
David Wells	545	20	19.32	0.037	0.035	103.52
Erik Bedard	431	17	16.46	0.039	0.038	103.29
Jeff Suppan	708	34	32.99	0.048	0.047	103.05
Barry Zito	608	21	20.40	0.035	0.034	102.94
Jason Marquis	626	25	24.34	0.040	0.039	102.70
Jeff Francis	662	30	29.40	0.045	0.044	102.04
Kameron Loe	464	28	27.74	0.060	0.060	100.93
Livan Hernandez	704	38	37.71	0.054	0.054	100.78
Paul Maholm	583	30	29.99	0.051	0.051	100.02
Matt Morris	693	28	28.14	0.040	0.041	99.50
Kip Wells	522	20	20.10	0.038	0.039	99.48
Ian Snell	606	20	20.14	0.033	0.033	99.33
Odalis Perez	494	18	18.33	0.036	0.037	98.20
John Maine	527	17	17.37	0.032	0.033	97.86
Cole Hamels	495	23	23.78	0.046	0.048	96.70
Chad Gaudin	603	21	21.76	0.035	0.036	96.51
A.J. Burnett	414	15	15.67	0.036	0.038	95.73
Mike Maroth	417	17	17.85	0.041	0.043	95.22
Tim Hudson	722	41	43.25	0.057	0.060	94.81
Felix Hernandez	567	26	27.45	0.046	0.048	94.73
Jered Weaver	514	18	19.04	0.035	0.037	94.51
Brian Bannister	540	20	21.19	0.037	0.039	94.40
Oliver Perez	483	11	11.65	0.023	0.024	94.40
Micah Owings	461	22	23.32	0.048	0.051	94.34
Kyle Lohse	615	22	23.48	0.036	0.038	93.71
Jeff Weaver	511	10	10.72	0.020	0.021	93.32
Chuck James	484	15	16.10	0.031	0.033	93.18
Tom Gorzelanny	642	24	25.76	0.037	0.040	93.18
Roy Oswalt	675	36	38.80	0.053	0.057	92.79
Adam Wainwright	654	28	30.29	0.043	0.046	92.44
Jose Contreras	647	22	23.80	0.034	0.037	92.43
Scott Kazmir	534	16	17.46	0.030	0.033	91.64
Lenny DiNardo	430	15	16.48	0.035	0.038	91.04
Derek Lowe	604	27	29.69	0.045	0.049	90.95
Andy Pettitte	690	26	28.59	0.038	0.041	90.93
Paul Byrd	686	21	23.15	0.031	0.034	90.72
Aaron Harang	642	23	25.44	0.036	0.040	90.42
Doug Davis	597	32	36.17	0.054	0.061	88.47
Scott Olsen	578	21	23.75	0.036	0.041	88.41
Josh Fogg	556	21	23.79	0.038	0.043	88.26
Scott Baker	454	13	14.84	0.029	0.033	87.58
Rich Hill	527	21	23.98	0.040	0.046	87.57
Brad Penny	643	25	28.93	0.039	0.045	86.41
Kevin Millwood	571	16	18.75	0.028	0.033	85.32
John Lackey	668	24	28.71	0.036	0.043	83.60
Braden Looper	581	19	23.06	0.033	0.040	82.41
Chad Billingsley	400	17	20.94	0.043	0.052	81.18
Josh Beckett	566	11	13.68	0.019	0.024	80.41
Vicente Padilla	407	12	15.11	0.029	0.037	79.44
Chris Young	448	11	14.27	0.025	0.032	77.08
Claudio Vargas	419	14	18.20	0.033	0.043	76.91
Edwin Jackson	516	12	15.91	0.023	0.031	75.43
Jeremy Bonderman	533	14	18.78	0.026	0.035	74.53
Boof Bonser	539	14	18.92	0.026	0.035	74.00
Jorge de la Rosa	431	11	15.32	0.026	0.036	71.79
Gil Meche	663	20	28.05	0.030	0.042	71.31
Julian Tavarez	455	11	15.86	0.024	0.035	69.38
Brad Thompson	451	10	14.58	0.022	0.032	68.61
Matt Belisle	570	15	22.66	0.026	0.040	66.18
Dan Haren	661	17	26.01	0.026	0.039	65.36
Daniel Cabrera	608	13	20.82	0.021	0.034	62.44
Ben Sheets	431	11	19.19	0.026	0.045	57.31
Curt Schilling	485	7	12.87	0.014	0.027	54.40

Peavy is also very good, however. Looking at Schilling's low ranking should give his opponents a clue as to his weakness next season. Bunting for hits against Curt might be a very good idea.

Fielding by catchers isn't the most important aspect of the job, and the number of outs attributed to the postion are few. But for completeness, here are the tables for the position. First, teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4587	57	47.59	0.012	0.010	119.76
Braves	4404	64	55.33	0.015	0.013	115.67
Rockies	4599	76	66.39	0.017	0.014	114.48
Yankees	4511	66	59.51	0.015	0.013	110.90
Dodgers	4310	68	62.43	0.016	0.014	108.91
Angels	4325	39	35.96	0.009	0.008	108.47
Marlins	4491	57	53.73	0.013	0.012	106.09
Nationals	4591	60	57.21	0.013	0.012	104.87
Astros	4530	58	55.59	0.013	0.012	104.33
Tigers	4486	50	47.96	0.011	0.011	104.25
White Sox	4545	50	49.10	0.011	0.011	101.82
Giants	4467	58	57.06	0.013	0.013	101.64
Cubs	4177	51	50.42	0.012	0.012	101.15
Reds	4533	74	73.68	0.016	0.016	100.44
Blue Jays	4349	50	49.79	0.011	0.011	100.42
Royals	4528	46	45.90	0.010	0.010	100.22
Rangers	4518	48	48.05	0.011	0.011	99.90
Red Sox	4226	49	49.56	0.012	0.012	98.88
Devil Rays	4378	41	41.89	0.009	0.010	97.88
Indians	4548	36	37.23	0.008	0.008	96.70
Diamondbacks	4351	50	51.94	0.011	0.012	96.26
Padres	4476	59	61.48	0.013	0.014	95.97
Orioles	4403	37	38.96	0.008	0.009	94.97
Mariners	4535	42	44.86	0.009	0.010	93.63
Pirates	4608	51	54.75	0.011	0.012	93.15
Phillies	4505	56	60.25	0.012	0.013	92.95
Twins	4384	30	32.50	0.007	0.007	92.32
Athletics	4499	37	41.10	0.008	0.009	90.03
Mets	4362	50	56.67	0.011	0.013	88.22
Brewers	4392	51	59.91	0.012	0.014	85.13

The Mets are Brewers, who just completed a trade at the position, came out at the bottom team wise. New York might have been better off with Torrealba, at least fielding wise.

Individual Catcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Yadier Molina	2719	32	26.82	0.012	0.010	119.33
Brian McCann	3433	52	43.65	0.015	0.013	119.14
Yorvit Torrealba	2863	54	45.73	0.019	0.016	118.07
Miguel Olivo	3131	44	37.90	0.014	0.012	116.11
Jorge Posada	3484	50	43.52	0.014	0.012	114.90
Eric Munson	1012	17	15.02	0.017	0.015	113.21
Jeff Mathis	1421	21	18.96	0.015	0.013	110.78
Jose Molina	1431	16	14.52	0.011	0.010	110.18
Kelly Shoppach	1365	14	12.72	0.010	0.009	110.07
Gerald Laird	3118	37	33.82	0.012	0.011	109.40
Russell Martin	3687	60	55.76	0.016	0.015	107.60
Gregg Zaun	2559	32	29.91	0.013	0.012	106.98
Brad Ausmus	2728	33	31.07	0.012	0.011	106.22
Chris Iannetta	1613	20	18.83	0.012	0.012	106.20
Toby Hall	1002	10	9.45	0.010	0.009	105.82
Gary Bennett	1223	15	14.18	0.012	0.012	105.75
Jesus Flores	1258	21	19.87	0.017	0.016	105.69
Ivan Rodriguez	3216	41	38.98	0.013	0.012	105.19
John Buck	2879	30	28.52	0.010	0.010	105.18
Brian Schneider	3333	39	37.34	0.012	0.011	104.43
Mike Napoli	1814	12	11.53	0.007	0.006	104.09
Miguel Montero	1629	20	19.57	0.012	0.012	102.20
Javier Valentin	1494	20	19.72	0.013	0.013	101.42
Bengie Molina	3389	42	41.51	0.012	0.012	101.17
Mike Rabelo	1270	9	8.99	0.007	0.007	100.16
Dave Ross	2603	46	46.32	0.018	0.018	99.32
A.J. Pierzynski	3270	37	37.40	0.011	0.011	98.92
Ronny Paulino	3423	40	40.81	0.012	0.012	98.02
Michael Barrett	2291	33	33.76	0.014	0.015	97.74
Ramon Hernandez	2617	24	24.82	0.009	0.009	96.71
Josh Bard	2761	38	39.31	0.014	0.014	96.67
Mike Redmond	1461	11	11.42	0.008	0.008	96.30
Kurt Suzuki	1696	14	14.61	0.008	0.009	95.82
Paul Lo Duca	2922	33	34.63	0.011	0.012	95.29
Dioner Navarro	2901	25	26.29	0.009	0.009	95.09
Jason LaRue	1537	16	16.89	0.010	0.011	94.72
Jason Kendall	3448	31	32.85	0.009	0.010	94.37
Carlos Ruiz	2802	44	46.89	0.016	0.017	93.83
Jason Varitek	3061	33	35.49	0.011	0.012	92.99
Chris Snyder	2611	26	28.37	0.010	0.011	91.64
Johnny Estrada	2922	36	39.51	0.012	0.014	91.12
Kenji Johjima	3548	32	35.22	0.009	0.010	90.85
Rob Bowen	1268	11	12.14	0.009	0.010	90.59
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	1201	11	12.25	0.009	0.010	89.78
Victor Martinez	3183	22	24.51	0.007	0.008	89.76
Joe Mauer	2331	16	18.22	0.007	0.008	87.83
Paul Bako	1290	8	9.42	0.006	0.007	84.90
Matt Treanor	1317	13	15.83	0.010	0.012	82.12
Jason Phillips	1025	7	8.88	0.007	0.009	78.82
Damian Miller	1367	13	17.73	0.010	0.013	73.30

Two of the old men, Posada and Ivan Rodriguez, are still cat like behind the plate.

Here's a look at the range of first basemen. First, the team table. The Yankees at least did a good job of improving their defense at the position:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4587	366	329.22	0.080	0.072	111.17
Yankees	4511	314	285.78	0.070	0.063	109.87
Giants	4467	325	304.72	0.073	0.068	106.66
Royals	4528	315	296.64	0.070	0.066	106.19
Padres	4476	311	295.59	0.069	0.066	105.21
Cubs	4177	283	269.44	0.068	0.065	105.03
Braves	4404	320	306.86	0.073	0.070	104.28
Angels	4325	308	296.32	0.071	0.069	103.94
Pirates	4608	315	304.66	0.068	0.066	103.39
Rockies	4599	336	326.21	0.073	0.071	103.00
Astros	4530	335	328.42	0.074	0.072	102.00
Red Sox	4226	323	321.65	0.076	0.076	100.42
Brewers	4392	294	293.80	0.067	0.067	100.07
Diamondbacks	4351	292	292.06	0.067	0.067	99.98
Devil Rays	4378	316	317.18	0.072	0.072	99.63
Blue Jays	4349	337	339.17	0.077	0.078	99.36
Orioles	4403	273	277.29	0.062	0.063	98.45
Athletics	4499	303	310.84	0.067	0.069	97.48
Dodgers	4310	285	293.60	0.066	0.068	97.07
Mariners	4535	297	308.37	0.065	0.068	96.31
Mets	4362	285	296.03	0.065	0.068	96.27
White Sox	4545	309	321.66	0.068	0.071	96.06
Indians	4548	295	307.96	0.065	0.068	95.79
Tigers	4486	296	310.16	0.066	0.069	95.44
Rangers	4518	283	297.18	0.063	0.066	95.23
Phillies	4505	302	317.82	0.067	0.071	95.02
Marlins	4491	291	307.52	0.065	0.068	94.63
Twins	4384	311	337.63	0.071	0.077	92.11
Reds	4533	263	290.87	0.058	0.064	90.42
Nationals	4591	270	299.99	0.059	0.065	90.00

It looks like the Nationals missed Nick Johnson's glove at first base. It's even more evident in the individual listing:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Doug Mientkiewicz	1427	109	92.24	0.076	0.065	118.17
Rich Aurilia	1115	70	59.31	0.063	0.053	118.02
Andy Phillips	1325	93	80.91	0.070	0.061	114.95
Albert Pujols	4220	349	308.82	0.083	0.073	113.01
Ryan Shealy	1336	88	78.66	0.066	0.059	111.87
Derrek Lee	3691	254	239.65	0.069	0.065	105.99
Casey Kotchman	3085	225	214.03	0.073	0.069	105.12
Adrian Gonzalez	4401	307	292.23	0.070	0.066	105.06
Tony Clark	1345	98	93.58	0.073	0.070	104.72
Scott Thorman	1859	126	120.75	0.068	0.065	104.35
Todd Helton	4170	306	293.61	0.073	0.070	104.22
Ryan Klesko	2504	190	183.08	0.076	0.073	103.78
Ben Broussard	1057	72	69.60	0.068	0.066	103.45
James Loney	2355	168	162.45	0.071	0.069	103.42
Ross Gload	2169	153	148.21	0.071	0.068	103.23
Carlos Pena	3708	277	268.41	0.075	0.072	103.20
Adam LaRoche	4141	283	274.52	0.068	0.066	103.09
Nick Swisher	1075	91	88.68	0.085	0.082	102.61
Kevin Youkilis	3208	253	249.42	0.079	0.078	101.44
Matt Stairs	1024	86	85.07	0.084	0.083	101.10
Lance Berkman	3315	229	229.22	0.069	0.069	99.91
Lyle Overbay	2887	221	221.32	0.077	0.077	99.86
Prince Fielder	4073	266	271.21	0.065	0.067	98.08
Conor Jackson	2647	173	176.80	0.065	0.067	97.85
Mark Teixeira	3404	240	246.41	0.071	0.072	97.40
Carlos Delgado	3649	244	251.39	0.067	0.069	97.06
Kevin Millar	2666	171	176.83	0.064	0.066	96.70
Robert Fick	1221	80	82.79	0.066	0.068	96.64
Aubrey Huff	1295	67	69.45	0.052	0.054	96.47
Ryan Howard	3871	263	274.29	0.068	0.071	95.88
Paul Konerko	3864	256	267.48	0.066	0.069	95.71
Richie Sexson	3137	201	210.24	0.064	0.067	95.61
Aaron Boone	1219	85	89.73	0.070	0.074	94.72
Brad Wilkerson	1444	82	86.94	0.057	0.060	94.32
Ryan Garko	3271	209	223.33	0.064	0.068	93.58
Sean Casey	3100	198	211.63	0.064	0.068	93.56
Dan Johnson	2679	166	177.43	0.062	0.066	93.56
Justin Morneau	3872	281	302.07	0.073	0.078	93.02
Mike Jacobs	2821	170	183.72	0.060	0.065	92.53
Jeff Conine	1595	86	94.78	0.054	0.059	90.74
Scott Hatteberg	2457	144	160.66	0.059	0.065	89.63
Nomar Garciaparra	1678	106	118.73	0.063	0.071	89.28
Dmitri Young	2808	162	184.81	0.058	0.066	87.66

Once again, Albert Pujols comes out on top among every day first basemen. If the Yankees had kept Miguel Cairo off first, they might have finished first as a team. Not only did Nomar not hit like a first baseman, he didn't even field well.

Correction: Cairo, not Cabrera.

Here's something the Orioles excelled at during 2007, fielding by leftfielders:

Team Leftfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Orioles	4403	362	343.61	0.082	0.078	105.35
Indians	4548	339	325.23	0.075	0.072	104.23
Braves	4404	316	306.69	0.072	0.070	103.04
Rangers	4518	337	327.32	0.075	0.072	102.96
Nationals	4591	352	341.94	0.077	0.074	102.94
Yankees	4511	334	324.93	0.074	0.072	102.79
Brewers	4392	322	314.81	0.073	0.072	102.28
Mets	4362	324	317.91	0.074	0.073	101.91
Padres	4476	310	305.07	0.069	0.068	101.62
Royals	4528	373	367.39	0.082	0.081	101.53
Devil Rays	4378	339	334.26	0.077	0.076	101.42
Cubs	4177	341	337.65	0.082	0.081	100.99
Diamondbacks	4351	349	345.83	0.080	0.079	100.92
Blue Jays	4349	294	292.63	0.068	0.067	100.47
Dodgers	4310	288	287.78	0.067	0.067	100.08
Angels	4325	340	341.60	0.079	0.079	99.53
Giants	4467	314	317.61	0.070	0.071	98.86
Tigers	4486	327	331.60	0.073	0.074	98.61
Marlins	4491	274	278.60	0.061	0.062	98.35
Astros	4530	285	290.69	0.063	0.064	98.04
Athletics	4499	337	344.34	0.075	0.077	97.87
White Sox	4545	318	325.73	0.070	0.072	97.63
Pirates	4608	303	310.81	0.066	0.067	97.49
Rockies	4599	317	326.69	0.069	0.071	97.03
Reds	4533	326	336.27	0.072	0.074	96.95
Twins	4384	334	345.60	0.076	0.079	96.64
Phillies	4505	282	295.91	0.063	0.066	95.30
Red Sox	4226	284	299.24	0.067	0.071	94.91
Cardinals	4587	320	346.16	0.070	0.075	92.44
Mariners	4535	288	315.31	0.064	0.070	91.34

Among individuals, Matt Diaz had a career year with the glove as well as the bat.

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Matt Diaz	2064	155	142.05	0.075	0.069	109.11
Jose Cruz	1099	89	82.33	0.081	0.075	108.10
Joey Gathright	1595	154	142.69	0.097	0.089	107.93
Jay Payton	2776	231	214.85	0.083	0.077	107.52
David Dellucci	1210	97	91.32	0.080	0.075	106.22
Scott Hairston	1689	115	108.48	0.068	0.064	106.01
Wily Mo Pena	1126	68	64.97	0.060	0.058	104.66
Ryan Church	2304	196	188.59	0.085	0.082	103.93
Geoff Jenkins	2985	243	234.55	0.081	0.079	103.60
Carl Crawford	3623	286	276.65	0.079	0.076	103.38
Hideki Matsui	3091	214	207.16	0.069	0.067	103.30
Adam Lind	1969	137	132.73	0.070	0.067	103.22
Jason Michaels	1567	117	113.59	0.075	0.072	103.00
Reggie Willits	1557	151	146.83	0.097	0.094	102.84
Reed Johnson	1518	108	105.47	0.071	0.069	102.40
Emil Brown	1909	155	153.22	0.081	0.080	101.16
Eric Byrnes	2924	239	236.90	0.082	0.081	100.89
Alfonso Soriano	3074	245	243.79	0.080	0.079	100.50
Rob Mackowiak	1468	98	97.52	0.067	0.066	100.49
Kenny Lofton	1189	82	82.28	0.069	0.069	99.66
Willie Harris	1873	138	139.21	0.074	0.074	99.13
Ryan Ludwick	1011	86	86.83	0.085	0.086	99.04
Frank Catalanotto	1540	98	99.82	0.064	0.065	98.18
Jason Bay	3974	266	271.62	0.067	0.068	97.93
Luis Gonzalez	3008	192	196.31	0.064	0.065	97.81
Matt Holliday	4331	296	303.68	0.068	0.070	97.47
Carlos Lee	4244	261	268.68	0.061	0.063	97.14
Moises Alou	2105	138	142.80	0.066	0.068	96.64
Shannon Stewart	3606	277	287.12	0.077	0.080	96.47
Kevin Mench	1139	55	57.41	0.048	0.050	95.81
Craig Monroe	2512	166	174.76	0.066	0.070	94.99
Garret Anderson	2169	143	150.84	0.066	0.070	94.81
Scott Podsednik	1421	108	114.15	0.076	0.080	94.61
Josh Willingham	3653	211	223.26	0.058	0.061	94.51
Adam Dunn	3691	245	259.98	0.066	0.070	94.24
Terrmel Sledge	1192	77	82.16	0.065	0.069	93.72
Barry Bonds	2588	162	173.93	0.063	0.067	93.14
Jason Kubel	2153	159	172.31	0.074	0.080	92.27
Raul Ibanez	3559	224	243.95	0.063	0.069	91.82
Manny Ramirez	2925	182	198.85	0.062	0.068	91.53
Chris Duncan	2437	158	175.74	0.065	0.072	89.90
Pat Burrell	3176	176	198.31	0.055	0.062	88.75

There's no real surprises at the bottom of the list. Bonds, however, fell off quite a bit. He was average in 2006, but well below average in 2007. You can also see that there are few regular leftfielders. Only twelve players on the list were on the field at that position for at least 3000 balls in play.

The following table presents probabilistic model of range data for team rightfielders:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Phillies	4505	363	328.75	0.081	0.073	110.42
Rangers	4518	341	317.30	0.075	0.070	107.47
Yankees	4511	341	328.36	0.076	0.073	103.85
Royals	4528	410	397.12	0.091	0.088	103.24
Nationals	4591	392	381.19	0.085	0.083	102.84
Indians	4548	313	304.41	0.069	0.067	102.82
Marlins	4491	379	368.66	0.084	0.082	102.81
Astros	4530	360	354.55	0.079	0.078	101.54
Brewers	4392	393	387.42	0.089	0.088	101.44
Diamondbacks	4351	336	331.82	0.077	0.076	101.26
Athletics	4499	330	327.02	0.073	0.073	100.91
Blue Jays	4349	281	278.50	0.065	0.064	100.90
Cubs	4177	303	301.51	0.073	0.072	100.50
Angels	4325	311	310.00	0.072	0.072	100.32
Padres	4476	331	331.59	0.074	0.074	99.82
Twins	4384	306	307.17	0.070	0.070	99.62
Tigers	4486	318	319.88	0.071	0.071	99.41
Red Sox	4226	287	289.46	0.068	0.068	99.15
Mets	4362	340	343.80	0.078	0.079	98.89
Orioles	4403	314	317.86	0.071	0.072	98.79
Braves	4404	331	336.45	0.075	0.076	98.38
Devil Rays	4378	309	314.27	0.071	0.072	98.32
Reds	4533	377	384.09	0.083	0.085	98.15
Pirates	4608	312	319.06	0.068	0.069	97.79
Cardinals	4587	316	323.36	0.069	0.070	97.72
White Sox	4545	345	354.49	0.076	0.078	97.32
Dodgers	4310	317	326.76	0.074	0.076	97.01
Giants	4467	338	349.14	0.076	0.078	96.81
Mariners	4535	305	323.57	0.067	0.071	94.26
Rockies	4599	296	316.91	0.064	0.069	93.40

As shown below, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino made quite the dynamic duo in rightfield for the Phillies. My uncle Anthony will not be happy with this list, however. He's a Yankees season ticket holder and he loves to tell me how much Bobby Abreu is afraid of the wall. It looks like he's still getting to lots of balls.

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Jayson Werth	1389	109	95.35	0.078	0.069	114.32
Shane Victorino	2837	229	210.62	0.081	0.074	108.72
Nick Swisher	1289	109	101.65	0.085	0.079	107.23
Carlos Quentin	1718	138	129.11	0.080	0.075	106.89
Franklin Gutierrez	1757	136	128.55	0.077	0.073	105.79
Nelson Cruz	1922	148	141.26	0.077	0.073	104.77
Luke Scott	2560	198	190.34	0.077	0.074	104.02
Bobby Abreu	4148	313	302.45	0.075	0.073	103.49
Corey Hart	2641	253	246.33	0.096	0.093	102.71
Austin Kearns	4356	375	366.16	0.086	0.084	102.41
Mark Teahen	3663	318	311.33	0.087	0.085	102.14
Alex Rios	3730	243	240.17	0.065	0.064	101.18
Travis Buck	1561	110	109.03	0.070	0.070	100.89
Jeremy Hermida	3035	247	245.88	0.081	0.081	100.46
Randy Winn	2686	209	208.12	0.078	0.077	100.42
Delmon Young	3463	252	251.16	0.073	0.073	100.33
Trot Nixon	2140	129	129.17	0.060	0.060	99.86
Michael Cuddyer	3749	256	256.95	0.068	0.069	99.63
Nick Markakis	4279	303	306.74	0.071	0.072	98.78
Magglio Ordonez	3835	261	264.54	0.068	0.069	98.66
Jeff Francoeur	4356	328	333.45	0.075	0.077	98.37
Jermaine Dye	3682	284	289.80	0.077	0.079	98.00
Shawn Green	2771	203	207.55	0.073	0.075	97.81
Vladimir Guerrero	2819	208	213.12	0.074	0.076	97.60
Matt Kemp	1851	129	132.50	0.070	0.072	97.36
Brian Giles	3199	216	223.54	0.068	0.070	96.63
J.D. Drew	3128	212	219.98	0.068	0.070	96.37
Ken Griffey Jr.	3649	291	302.61	0.080	0.083	96.16
Andre Ethier	2315	177	184.39	0.076	0.080	95.99
Xavier Nady	2390	162	168.97	0.068	0.071	95.88
Jose Guillen	4063	268	284.73	0.066	0.070	94.13
Juan Encarnacion	1983	125	132.90	0.063	0.067	94.06
Jack Cust	1205	79	84.93	0.066	0.070	93.01
Brad Hawpe	3851	247	267.07	0.064	0.069	92.48
Cliff Floyd	1185	69	78.30	0.058	0.066	88.12

Mark Teahen did a much better job of adjusting to rightfield than Ken Griffey, Jr. Of course, Junior is old and slow, and with all the injuries might be better off as a DH in AL at this point.

The Washington Nationals and Ryan Zimmerman lead the way at third base.

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Nationals	4591	448	403.22	0.098	0.088	111.11
Cubs	4177	433	400.61	0.104	0.096	108.09
Giants	4467	434	404.44	0.097	0.091	107.31
Mets	4362	415	390.52	0.095	0.090	106.27
Red Sox	4226	377	356.44	0.089	0.084	105.77
Tigers	4486	446	426.09	0.099	0.095	104.67
Yankees	4511	370	354.08	0.082	0.078	104.50
Orioles	4403	423	406.97	0.096	0.092	103.94
Mariners	4535	423	407.60	0.093	0.090	103.78
Angels	4325	341	329.04	0.079	0.076	103.64
Cardinals	4587	468	459.66	0.102	0.100	101.81
Rangers	4518	385	378.51	0.085	0.084	101.72
Blue Jays	4349	376	371.58	0.086	0.085	101.19
Dodgers	4310	380	376.79	0.088	0.087	100.85
Braves	4404	364	364.35	0.083	0.083	99.90
Brewers	4392	369	371.77	0.084	0.085	99.26
Athletics	4499	399	405.18	0.089	0.090	98.47
Padres	4476	376	382.21	0.084	0.085	98.37
Astros	4530	401	409.30	0.089	0.090	97.97
Phillies	4505	433	442.07	0.096	0.098	97.95
Reds	4533	398	406.34	0.088	0.090	97.95
Royals	4528	378	387.55	0.083	0.086	97.54
Devil Rays	4378	361	370.39	0.082	0.085	97.46
White Sox	4545	426	438.55	0.094	0.096	97.14
Twins	4384	393	405.89	0.090	0.093	96.82
Pirates	4608	450	470.32	0.098	0.102	95.68
Indians	4548	400	421.84	0.088	0.093	94.82
Diamondbacks	4351	344	363.60	0.079	0.084	94.61
Marlins	4491	359	395.76	0.080	0.088	90.71
Rockies	4599	349	393.86	0.076	0.086	88.61

Given that David Wright scores better than Alex Rodriguez, if the Mets sign A-Rod, they should move him to first.

Individual Third Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Ryan Zimmerman	4528	443	398.27	0.098	0.088	111.23
Joe Crede	1184	125	113.00	0.106	0.095	110.62
Pedro Feliz	3718	373	341.20	0.100	0.092	109.32
Aramis Ramirez	3208	329	308.47	0.103	0.096	106.65
David Wright	4260	403	378.91	0.095	0.089	106.36
Mike Lowell	3890	342	321.90	0.088	0.083	106.24
Melvin Mora	3225	318	301.25	0.099	0.093	105.56
Maicer Izturis	1320	101	95.97	0.077	0.073	105.24
Brandon Inge	4062	400	380.28	0.098	0.094	105.18
Adrian Beltre	4036	379	362.12	0.094	0.090	104.66
Alex Rodriguez	4158	342	330.85	0.082	0.080	103.37
Scott Rolen	2983	296	287.61	0.099	0.096	102.92
Troy Glaus	2803	241	234.49	0.086	0.084	102.78
Ramon Vazquez	1671	152	148.03	0.091	0.089	102.68
Chone Figgins	2561	198	192.85	0.077	0.075	102.67
Hank Blalock	1082	83	80.94	0.077	0.075	102.55
Morgan Ensberg	1778	165	162.23	0.093	0.091	101.71
Travis Metcalf	1376	114	113.26	0.083	0.082	100.65
Chipper Jones	3231	278	277.24	0.086	0.086	100.27
Nomar Garciaparra	1103	87	86.81	0.079	0.079	100.21
Eric Chavez	2379	218	218.17	0.092	0.092	99.92
Akinori Iwamura	3174	260	261.21	0.082	0.082	99.54
Abraham Nunez	1792	205	206.06	0.114	0.115	99.49
Alex Gordon	3609	318	321.97	0.088	0.089	98.77
Edwin Encarnacion	3620	308	314.99	0.085	0.087	97.78
Chad Tracy	1152	96	98.41	0.083	0.085	97.55
Wilson Betemit	1235	94	96.37	0.076	0.078	97.54
Nick Punto	2518	239	245.24	0.095	0.097	97.46
Jack Hannahan	1122	93	96.13	0.083	0.086	96.74
Wes Helms	1394	116	120.21	0.083	0.086	96.50
Greg Dobbs	1309	111	115.27	0.085	0.088	96.29
Kevin Kouzmanoff	3415	279	292.44	0.082	0.086	95.40
Ty Wigginton	1995	186	195.65	0.093	0.098	95.07
Mike Lamb	1320	108	113.69	0.082	0.086	95.00
Mark Reynolds	2542	196	208.42	0.077	0.082	94.04
Jose Bautista	3413	317	338.96	0.093	0.099	93.52
Casey Blake	3743	325	351.27	0.087	0.094	92.52
Josh Fields	2234	200	217.44	0.090	0.097	91.98
Miguel Cabrera	4055	330	361.80	0.081	0.089	91.21
Ryan Braun	2886	211	239.01	0.073	0.083	88.28
Garrett Atkins	4136	305	352.46	0.074	0.085	86.53

The bottom three on the list pretty much define all-hit and no-field.

Here are the PMR numbers for second basemen. First the team stats.

Team Second Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Reds	4533	517	470.97	0.114	0.104	109.77
Phillies	4505	507	486.30	0.113	0.108	104.26
Yankees	4511	551	528.65	0.122	0.117	104.23
Diamondbacks	4351	536	514.78	0.123	0.118	104.12
Rangers	4518	561	541.66	0.124	0.120	103.57
Twins	4384	508	491.17	0.116	0.112	103.43
Athletics	4499	610	592.38	0.136	0.132	102.97
Blue Jays	4349	589	574.80	0.135	0.132	102.47
Tigers	4486	505	494.43	0.113	0.110	102.14
Royals	4528	453	444.63	0.100	0.098	101.88
Red Sox	4226	524	515.37	0.124	0.122	101.67
Rockies	4599	558	548.82	0.121	0.119	101.67
Angels	4325	505	497.11	0.117	0.115	101.59
Mariners	4535	554	546.62	0.122	0.121	101.35
Nationals	4591	491	485.03	0.107	0.106	101.23
Indians	4548	564	557.26	0.124	0.123	101.21
Orioles	4403	534	528.33	0.121	0.120	101.07
White Sox	4545	467	466.32	0.103	0.103	100.15
Mets	4362	493	494.92	0.113	0.113	99.61
Cubs	4177	471	476.31	0.113	0.114	98.88
Brewers	4392	447	456.43	0.102	0.104	97.93
Braves	4404	521	533.24	0.118	0.121	97.70
Pirates	4608	428	440.07	0.093	0.096	97.26
Devil Rays	4378	493	507.26	0.113	0.116	97.19
Dodgers	4310	480	494.92	0.111	0.115	96.99
Cardinals	4587	509	525.15	0.111	0.114	96.92
Padres	4476	556	575.50	0.124	0.129	96.61
Marlins	4491	463	487.55	0.103	0.109	94.96
Giants	4467	450	478.37	0.101	0.107	94.07
Astros	4530	461	495.20	0.102	0.109	93.09

Looking at the teams at the bottom of the list, old second basemen are a detriment to defense. Not only did Biggio at second not help the Astros offensively, it hurt them defensively as well. Now for the individual players.

Individual Second Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Brandon Phillips	4288	488	442.09	0.114	0.103	110.38
Chase Utley	3571	410	386.97	0.115	0.108	105.95
Jose Valentin	1123	154	145.56	0.137	0.130	105.80
Orlando Hudson	3552	435	412.20	0.122	0.116	105.53
Esteban German	1248	117	111.06	0.094	0.089	105.35
Ian Kinsler	3581	459	438.84	0.128	0.123	104.59
Ronnie Belliard	3168	337	322.49	0.106	0.102	104.50
Robinson Cano	4380	532	509.76	0.121	0.116	104.36
Josh Barfield	3237	396	381.63	0.122	0.118	103.76
Mark Ellis	4119	561	540.88	0.136	0.131	103.72
Kaz Matsui	2634	335	323.55	0.127	0.123	103.54
Aaron Hill	4230	576	558.01	0.136	0.132	103.22
B.J. Upton	1305	174	168.87	0.133	0.129	103.04
Placido Polanco	3724	420	409.07	0.113	0.110	102.67
Jose Lopez	3899	486	475.59	0.125	0.122	102.19
Mike Fontenot	1343	152	148.82	0.113	0.111	102.14
Howie Kendrick	2222	276	270.90	0.124	0.122	101.88
Alexi Casilla	1262	144	141.60	0.114	0.112	101.70
Mark Grudzielanek	3021	312	307.78	0.103	0.102	101.37
Luis Castillo	3569	370	365.52	0.104	0.102	101.23
Tadahito Iguchi	3285	359	354.84	0.109	0.108	101.17
Geoff Blum	1481	178	176.84	0.120	0.119	100.65
Brian Roberts	4068	487	487.37	0.120	0.120	99.92
Dustin Pedroia	3365	417	417.32	0.124	0.124	99.92
Kevin Frandsen	1044	111	112.56	0.106	0.108	98.61
Danny Richar	1554	152	154.45	0.098	0.099	98.42
Jamey Carroll	1396	165	168.34	0.118	0.121	98.02
Adam Kennedy	2060	250	256.18	0.121	0.124	97.59
Freddy Sanchez	4064	378	387.80	0.093	0.095	97.47
Kelly Johnson	3474	412	423.58	0.119	0.122	97.27
Felipe Lopez	1208	129	134.76	0.107	0.112	95.72
Jeff Kent	3237	355	372.41	0.110	0.115	95.33
Mark DeRosa	2056	223	234.54	0.108	0.114	95.08
Marcus Giles	2883	364	383.01	0.126	0.133	95.04
Aaron Miles	1834	183	194.00	0.100	0.106	94.33
Dan Uggla	4310	438	466.30	0.102	0.108	93.93
Rickie Weeks	3003	301	320.45	0.100	0.107	93.93
Ray Durham	3183	320	343.81	0.101	0.108	93.08
Craig Biggio	2878	283	308.32	0.098	0.107	91.79
Brendan Harris	1206	110	124.59	0.091	0.103	88.29

Rickie Weeks and Dan Uggla need to be at the top of their offensive games to stay at this important defensive position.

Correction: Fixed caption on first table.

Here are the team rankings for centerfielders:

Team Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Mariners	4535	452	423.84	0.100	0.093	106.64
Red Sox	4226	481	452.99	0.114	0.107	106.18
Tigers	4486	468	445.78	0.104	0.099	104.98
Cubs	4177	414	400.21	0.099	0.096	103.45
Mets	4362	464	449.88	0.106	0.103	103.14
Braves	4404	431	421.41	0.098	0.096	102.28
Dodgers	4310	379	371.16	0.088	0.086	102.11
Rockies	4599	414	407.81	0.090	0.089	101.52
Padres	4476	409	404.18	0.091	0.090	101.19
Cardinals	4587	417	412.78	0.091	0.090	101.02
Reds	4533	455	451.03	0.100	0.100	100.88
Giants	4467	438	437.08	0.098	0.098	100.21
Nationals	4591	486	485.40	0.106	0.106	100.12
Royals	4528	424	425.45	0.094	0.094	99.66
Yankees	4511	468	470.38	0.104	0.104	99.49
Phillies	4505	418	421.10	0.093	0.093	99.26
Twins	4384	415	418.19	0.095	0.095	99.24
White Sox	4545	415	418.55	0.091	0.092	99.15
Angels	4325	441	445.14	0.102	0.103	99.07
Marlins	4491	453	458.41	0.101	0.102	98.82
Astros	4530	433	439.56	0.096	0.097	98.51
Blue Jays	4349	366	372.05	0.084	0.086	98.37
Pirates	4608	448	456.67	0.097	0.099	98.10
Diamondbacks	4351	406	414.42	0.093	0.095	97.97
Indians	4548	413	422.64	0.091	0.093	97.72
Rangers	4518	388	399.38	0.086	0.088	97.15
Athletics	4499	398	410.38	0.088	0.091	96.98
Orioles	4403	409	423.66	0.093	0.096	96.54
Devil Rays	4378	419	444.79	0.096	0.102	94.20
Brewers	4392	410	437.27	0.093	0.100	93.76

The Mariners come out on top of the Red Sox overall, but Boston has the better individual fielder:

Individual Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Coco Crisp	3560	408	377.29	0.115	0.106	108.14
Ichiro Suzuki	4233	424	394.49	0.100	0.093	107.48
Felix Pie	1169	120	112.75	0.103	0.096	106.43
Curtis Granderson	3995	424	402.22	0.106	0.101	105.42
Jacque Jones	1911	195	187.25	0.102	0.098	104.14
Darin Erstad	1117	105	101.18	0.094	0.091	103.77
Willy Taveras	2274	212	204.80	0.093	0.090	103.52
So Taguchi	1190	118	114.17	0.099	0.096	103.35
Ryan Church	1024	118	114.35	0.115	0.112	103.19
Andruw Jones	4080	396	385.38	0.097	0.094	102.76
Juan Pierre	4215	366	356.47	0.087	0.085	102.67
Josh Hamilton	1702	168	163.71	0.099	0.096	102.62
Carlos Beltran	3733	389	380.89	0.104	0.102	102.13
Johnny Damon	1211	121	118.84	0.100	0.098	101.82
Gary Matthews Jr.	3462	362	356.66	0.105	0.103	101.50
Mike Cameron	4016	365	360.75	0.091	0.090	101.18
Nook Logan	2398	248	245.18	0.103	0.102	101.15
Norris Hopper	1280	133	132.11	0.104	0.103	100.67
Dave Roberts	2334	224	222.68	0.096	0.095	100.59
Torii Hunter	4034	389	389.12	0.096	0.096	99.97
David DeJesus	4256	400	400.98	0.094	0.094	99.76
Alfredo Amezaga	2005	208	208.88	0.104	0.104	99.58
Jim Edmonds	2688	244	245.68	0.091	0.091	99.32
Aaron Rowand	4243	392	394.89	0.092	0.093	99.27
Hunter Pence	2636	260	261.99	0.099	0.099	99.24
Chris Duffy	1693	172	174.17	0.102	0.103	98.75
Melky Cabrera	3297	347	351.54	0.105	0.107	98.71
Rajai Davis	1162	124	125.75	0.107	0.108	98.60
Ryan Freel	1419	136	138.16	0.096	0.097	98.44
Vernon Wells	3813	321	326.31	0.084	0.086	98.37
Grady Sizemore	4383	399	407.44	0.091	0.093	97.93
Jerry Owens	2294	208	212.80	0.091	0.093	97.75
Chris Young	3824	354	364.20	0.093	0.095	97.20
B.J. Upton	2014	204	210.16	0.101	0.104	97.07
Mark Kotsay	1492	141	145.40	0.095	0.097	96.98
Nick Swisher	1515	139	144.94	0.092	0.096	95.90
Marlon Byrd	1541	114	119.68	0.074	0.078	95.25
Nate McLouth	1583	142	150.82	0.090	0.095	94.15
Kenny Lofton	2219	188	199.69	0.085	0.090	94.15
Corey Patterson	3225	281	298.69	0.087	0.093	94.08
Bill Hall	3159	295	314.62	0.093	0.100	93.76
Elijah Dukes	1010	82	92.28	0.081	0.091	88.86

Note to that the shift of Bill Hall to center worked neither offensively nor defensively. Andruw Jones may not be as good as he once was, but he can still go get the ball.

Phil Allard calls for Jeter to be moved to another position based on his poor fielding.

I will say this again just so his fanboys won't think I am engaging in gratuitous Jeter bashing:

Derek Jeter is a hall of fame offensive player. He could end up over 3,500 hits in his career. He is a great and loyal Yankee. He's a smart player and an excellent hitter in the 2 hole. Yes. Yes. Yes.

But the point is the Yanks must entertain the idea of moving Jeter to another position. I suggest first base, but he could also handle the outfield or even 3B.

The right move for the Yankees would have been to move Jeter to center when they acquired A-Rod, and push Bernie to DH.

A number of people are suggesting new ways to construct the models, but before I try those methods I'd like to present the model used last year for the nine fielding positions, starting with shortstops. I am including something new, however, the full team at the position.

Team Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Rockies	4599	657	602.67	0.143	0.131	109.01
Twins	4384	556	523.57	0.127	0.119	106.19
Dodgers	4310	556	526.50	0.129	0.122	105.60
Royals	4528	543	514.33	0.120	0.114	105.57
Blue Jays	4349	567	544.69	0.130	0.125	104.09
Phillies	4505	531	516.45	0.118	0.115	102.82
Indians	4548	571	558.76	0.126	0.123	102.19
Pirates	4608	588	575.51	0.128	0.125	102.17
Red Sox	4226	500	492.12	0.118	0.116	101.60
Giants	4467	592	584.51	0.133	0.131	101.28
Diamondbacks	4351	493	488.99	0.113	0.112	100.82
Brewers	4392	501	497.76	0.114	0.113	100.65
Angels	4325	502	498.77	0.116	0.115	100.65
Marlins	4491	508	506.53	0.113	0.113	100.29
Mariners	4535	515	514.50	0.114	0.113	100.10
Orioles	4403	505	506.89	0.115	0.115	99.63
Astros	4530	561	563.85	0.124	0.124	99.49
Braves	4404	516	520.04	0.117	0.118	99.22
Cardinals	4587	539	544.84	0.118	0.119	98.93
Reds	4533	496	502.70	0.109	0.111	98.67
Athletics	4499	531	538.40	0.118	0.120	98.62
Padres	4476	536	544.49	0.120	0.122	98.44
Mets	4362	506	518.72	0.116	0.119	97.55
Cubs	4177	481	495.42	0.115	0.119	97.09
White Sox	4545	563	580.23	0.124	0.128	97.03
Tigers	4486	517	536.95	0.115	0.120	96.28
Rangers	4518	531	556.38	0.118	0.123	95.44
Devil Rays	4378	441	466.20	0.101	0.106	94.59
Nationals	4591	532	566.26	0.116	0.123	93.95
Yankees	4511	478	516.85	0.106	0.115	92.48

The above table will give you an idea of how the regular shortstop fit in the team context. You might imagine that Troy Tulowitzki was very good and Derek Jeter very bad:

Individual Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Troy Tulowitzki	4294	615	564.54	0.143	0.131	108.94
Tony F Pena	4010	480	449.44	0.120	0.112	106.80
Rafael Furcal	3574	473	445.28	0.132	0.125	106.23
John McDonald	2389	311	294.27	0.130	0.123	105.69
Jason Bartlett	3631	466	443.58	0.128	0.122	105.05
Jimmy Rollins	4447	528	511.62	0.119	0.115	103.20
Jack Wilson	3657	470	457.15	0.129	0.125	102.81
Yunel Escobar	1116	135	131.47	0.121	0.118	102.69
Jhonny Peralta	4206	512	502.37	0.122	0.119	101.92
Omar Vizquel	3739	504	497.76	0.135	0.133	101.25
Julio Lugo	3592	431	426.14	0.120	0.119	101.14
Adam Everett	1631	217	214.61	0.133	0.132	101.12
Orlando Cabrera	3997	462	456.91	0.116	0.114	101.11
Alex Gonzalez	2728	306	306.06	0.112	0.112	99.98
J.J. Hardy	3873	442	442.35	0.114	0.114	99.92
Cesar Izturis	1904	216	216.36	0.113	0.114	99.83
Bobby Crosby	2524	313	313.77	0.124	0.124	99.75
Stephen Drew	3877	434	435.25	0.112	0.112	99.71
Hanley Ramirez	4054	460	462.96	0.113	0.114	99.36
Ryan Theriot	2494	301	303.06	0.121	0.122	99.32
Khalil Greene	4206	504	507.64	0.120	0.121	99.28
Mark Loretta	1537	177	178.28	0.115	0.116	99.28
Yuniesky Betancourt	4103	464	467.60	0.113	0.114	99.23
Edgar Renteria	3067	361	365.13	0.118	0.119	98.87
Eric Bruntlett	1075	131	132.81	0.122	0.124	98.63
Royce Clayton	1538	200	202.77	0.130	0.132	98.63
Marco Scutaro	1064	122	124.14	0.115	0.117	98.28
Juan Uribe	4113	513	524.43	0.125	0.128	97.82
Jose Reyes	4295	500	511.97	0.116	0.119	97.66
David Eckstein	3002	349	357.57	0.116	0.119	97.60
Miguel Tejada	3317	363	373.46	0.109	0.113	97.20
Jeff Keppinger	1209	130	135.67	0.108	0.112	95.82
Carlos Guillen	3361	389	408.05	0.116	0.121	95.33
Felipe Lopez	2949	359	377.76	0.122	0.128	95.03
Michael Young	4083	476	504.85	0.117	0.124	94.29
Josh Wilson	1340	141	151.37	0.105	0.113	93.15
Brendan Harris	2336	234	253.12	0.100	0.108	92.45
Derek Jeter	4117	421	461.63	0.102	0.112	91.20
Cristian Guzman	1189	117	130.96	0.098	0.110	89.34

Troy really blew the competition away in terms of PMR, and Tony Pena did his best to make up for his poor hitting. And while New York enjoys two fine offensive shortstops, neither exactly sparkles with the glove. You can also see why the Tigers are moving Carlos Guillen to first. Michael Young may not be far behind him.

Rawlings presented the 2007 Gold Glove winners today. Maddux set a record with his 17th. David Wright won at third base, which I think would make it difficult for the Mets to move him to first if they sign A-Rod. Four outfielders won the NL award as there was a tie in the voting.

One thing PMR can measure is the luck of pitchers by looking at the predicted DER and actual DER behind them. The following table rates pitchers with at least 300 balls in play against them:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Defense Behind Pitchers, 2007. Visit Smoothed Distance Model. 2007 Data Only

Pitcher	Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	643	448	414.94	0.697	0.645	107.97
Jeremy Guthrie	Bal	527	375	356.60	0.712	0.677	105.16
Dustin McGowan	Tor	484	346	330.21	0.715	0.682	104.78
Sean Marshall	ChC	330	231	221.12	0.700	0.670	104.47
Roger Clemens	NYY	307	215	205.94	0.700	0.671	104.40
Brian Bannister	KC	540	393	376.52	0.728	0.697	104.38
Jarrod Washburn	Sea	627	440	422.32	0.702	0.674	104.19
Mike Bacsik	Was	414	291	279.42	0.703	0.675	104.14
Tom Glavine	NYM	674	474	455.80	0.703	0.676	103.99
Jason Hirsh	Col	340	252	242.53	0.741	0.713	103.91
Ted Lilly	ChC	586	427	411.59	0.729	0.702	103.74
Braden Looper	StL	581	416	401.23	0.716	0.691	103.68
Chris Sampson	Hou	414	292	281.66	0.705	0.680	103.67
Cole Hamels	Phi	495	348	336.00	0.703	0.679	103.57
Brad Penny	LAD	643	450	435.62	0.700	0.677	103.30
Dontrelle Willis	Fla	667	442	428.96	0.663	0.643	103.04
Yovani Gallardo	Mil	318	216	209.67	0.679	0.659	103.02
Jesse Litsch	Tor	371	259	251.51	0.698	0.678	102.98
Jason Bergmann	Was	332	248	241.02	0.747	0.726	102.90
Anthony Reyes	StL	332	236	229.52	0.711	0.691	102.82
Curt Schilling	Bos	485	338	328.75	0.697	0.678	102.82
Chuck James	Atl	484	352	342.43	0.727	0.707	102.80
Nate Robertson	Det	573	389	378.44	0.679	0.660	102.79
Aaron Cook	Col	572	401	390.44	0.701	0.683	102.70
Tim Lincecum	SF	389	277	269.87	0.712	0.694	102.64
Jon Garland	CWS	705	493	480.70	0.699	0.682	102.56
Steve Trachsel	Bal	491	351	342.47	0.715	0.697	102.49
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	555	384	375.16	0.692	0.676	102.36
Noah Lowry	SF	502	349	340.97	0.695	0.679	102.35
Tim Hudson	Atl	722	504	492.65	0.698	0.682	102.30
C.C. Sabathia	Cle	701	476	465.40	0.679	0.664	102.28
Chad Durbin	Det	417	304	297.37	0.729	0.713	102.23
Carlos Zambrano	ChC	610	439	429.45	0.720	0.704	102.22
Micah Owings	Ari	461	332	324.88	0.720	0.705	102.19
James Shields	TB	615	435	425.93	0.707	0.693	102.13
Erik Bedard	Bal	431	306	299.70	0.710	0.695	102.10
Jake Westbrook	Cle	481	329	322.43	0.684	0.670	102.04
John Lackey	LAA	668	459	450.14	0.687	0.674	101.97
Oliver Perez	NYM	483	341	334.57	0.706	0.693	101.92
Justin Verlander	Det	577	407	399.34	0.705	0.692	101.92
Barry Zito	SF	608	441	432.73	0.725	0.712	101.91
Roy Halladay	Tor	722	497	488.79	0.688	0.677	101.68
Jason Marquis	ChC	626	440	432.86	0.703	0.691	101.65
Zack Greinke	KC	350	239	235.18	0.683	0.672	101.63
Buddy Carlyle	Atl	335	229	225.46	0.684	0.673	101.57
A.J. Burnett	Tor	414	301	296.47	0.727	0.716	101.53
Johan Santana	Min	555	394	388.14	0.710	0.699	101.51
Jake Peavy	SD	571	409	403.20	0.716	0.706	101.44
Kyle Kendrick	Phi	401	284	280.03	0.708	0.698	101.42
Greg Maddux	SD	681	466	459.63	0.684	0.675	101.39
Tim Wakefield	Bos	600	425	419.24	0.708	0.699	101.37
Fausto Carmona	Cle	654	463	456.92	0.708	0.699	101.33
Kelvim Escobar	LAA	572	387	382.00	0.677	0.668	101.31
Joe Blanton	Oak	750	520	513.28	0.693	0.684	101.31
Rich Hill	ChC	527	378	373.19	0.717	0.708	101.29
Odalis Perez	KC	494	325	320.93	0.658	0.650	101.27
Matt Morris	SF	473	315	311.16	0.666	0.658	101.23
Carlos Silva	Min	699	485	479.14	0.694	0.685	101.22
Adam Eaton	Phi	525	356	351.83	0.678	0.670	101.19
Felix Hernandez	Sea	567	372	367.73	0.656	0.649	101.16
Wandy Rodriguez	Hou	536	366	361.86	0.683	0.675	101.14
Vicente Padilla	Tex	407	270	266.96	0.663	0.656	101.14
Aaron Harang	Cin	642	451	446.11	0.702	0.695	101.10
Livan Hernandez	Ari	704	488	482.76	0.693	0.686	101.08
Orlando Hernandez	NYM	388	299	295.82	0.771	0.762	101.08
Jamie Moyer	Phi	633	432	427.41	0.682	0.675	101.08
Ian Snell	Pit	606	413	408.93	0.682	0.675	101.00
Andy Pettitte	NYY	690	457	452.68	0.662	0.656	100.96
Tom Gorzelanny	Pit	642	439	435.75	0.684	0.679	100.75
Matt Albers	Hou	362	247	245.52	0.682	0.678	100.60
Lenny DiNardo	Oak	430	302	300.28	0.702	0.698	100.57
John Danks	CWS	427	289	287.39	0.677	0.673	100.56
Mark Hendrickson	LAD	395	262	260.58	0.663	0.660	100.55
Jorge Sosa	NYM	361	256	254.94	0.709	0.706	100.42
Brandon Webb	Ari	692	480	478.35	0.694	0.691	100.34
Carlos Villanueva	Mil	318	229	228.36	0.720	0.718	100.28
John Maine	NYM	527	377	376.07	0.715	0.714	100.25
Justin Germano	SD	426	302	301.31	0.709	0.707	100.23
Chad Billingsley	LAD	400	279	278.70	0.697	0.697	100.11
Ben Sheets	Mil	431	307	306.74	0.712	0.712	100.09
Roy Oswalt	Hou	675	456	456.10	0.676	0.676	99.98
Jered Weaver	LAA	514	348	348.13	0.677	0.677	99.96
Mike Mussina	NYY	512	335	335.31	0.654	0.655	99.91
Josh Beckett	Bos	566	385	385.40	0.680	0.681	99.90
Matt Chico	Was	548	380	380.44	0.693	0.694	99.88
Matt Belisle	Cin	570	378	378.52	0.663	0.664	99.86
Shaun Marcum	Tor	456	329	329.69	0.721	0.723	99.79
Jeff Weaver	Sea	511	340	340.84	0.665	0.667	99.75
Derek Lowe	LAD	604	412	413.67	0.682	0.685	99.60
Kameron Loe	Tex	464	305	306.28	0.657	0.660	99.58
Joe Saunders	LAA	358	235	236.04	0.656	0.659	99.56
Brad Thompson	StL	451	307	308.45	0.681	0.684	99.53
Josh Fogg	Col	556	381	383.08	0.685	0.689	99.46
Horacio Ramirez	Sea	361	231	232.31	0.640	0.644	99.44
Jeff Francis	Col	662	447	449.57	0.675	0.679	99.43
Miguel Batista	Sea	615	415	417.51	0.675	0.679	99.40
Paul Byrd	Cle	686	465	467.91	0.678	0.682	99.38
Gil Meche	KC	663	459	462.21	0.692	0.697	99.31
Claudio Vargas	Mil	419	281	283.02	0.671	0.675	99.29
Mark Buehrle	CWS	648	455	458.82	0.702	0.708	99.17
Boof Bonser	Min	539	359	362.02	0.666	0.672	99.17
Javier Vazquez	CWS	583	409	412.68	0.702	0.708	99.11
Edwin Jackson	TB	516	333	336.02	0.645	0.651	99.10
Bartolo Colon	LAA	328	205	206.87	0.625	0.631	99.09
Tony Armas Jr.	Pit	305	208	209.93	0.682	0.688	99.08
Jorge de la Rosa	KC	431	285	287.91	0.661	0.668	98.99
Jason Jennings	Hou	319	214	216.25	0.671	0.678	98.96
Edgar Gonzalez	Ari	324	228	230.41	0.704	0.711	98.96
Chris Young	SD	448	336	339.55	0.750	0.758	98.96
Julian Tavarez	Bos	455	307	310.39	0.675	0.682	98.91
Woody Williams	Hou	632	443	448.01	0.701	0.709	98.88
Daniel Cabrera	Bal	608	415	419.74	0.683	0.690	98.87
Bronson Arroyo	Cin	661	449	454.60	0.679	0.688	98.77
Kyle Lohse	Cin	426	293	296.71	0.688	0.697	98.75
Cliff Lee	Cle	317	216	218.74	0.681	0.690	98.75
Paul Maholm	Pit	583	391	396.00	0.671	0.679	98.74
Chad Gaudin	Oak	603	413	418.34	0.685	0.694	98.72
Ervin Santana	LAA	457	302	306.05	0.661	0.670	98.68
Doug Davis	Ari	597	400	405.62	0.670	0.679	98.61
Sergio Mitre	Fla	522	343	347.92	0.657	0.667	98.59
Adam Wainwright	StL	654	441	447.57	0.674	0.684	98.53
Byung-Hyun Kim	Fla	316	212	215.40	0.671	0.682	98.42
Ramon Ortiz	Min	324	217	220.56	0.670	0.681	98.39
Kevin Correia	SF	306	217	220.82	0.709	0.722	98.27
Kevin Millwood	Tex	571	364	370.63	0.637	0.649	98.21
Jeremy Bonderman	Det	533	354	360.70	0.664	0.677	98.14
Scott Baker	Min	454	302	308.06	0.665	0.679	98.03
Dan Haren	Oak	661	457	466.27	0.691	0.705	98.01
Randy Wolf	LAD	309	205	209.32	0.663	0.677	97.93
Jeff Suppan	Mil	708	472	482.96	0.667	0.682	97.73
Josh Towers	Tor	347	229	234.38	0.660	0.675	97.71
Matt Cain	SF	571	409	419.20	0.716	0.734	97.57
John Smoltz	Atl	586	400	410.60	0.683	0.701	97.42
Brandon McCarthy	Tex	340	232	238.54	0.682	0.702	97.26
Taylor Buchholz	Col	305	207	212.87	0.679	0.698	97.24
Andy Sonnanstine	TB	408	272	280.02	0.667	0.686	97.13
Brian Burres	Bal	378	249	256.88	0.659	0.680	96.93
Brett Tomko	LAD	339	219	226.04	0.646	0.667	96.89
Joe Kennedy	Oak	346	242	250.10	0.699	0.723	96.76
Scott Kazmir	TB	534	346	358.19	0.648	0.671	96.60
Chris Capuano	Mil	456	297	307.78	0.651	0.675	96.50
Robinson Tejeda	Tex	302	204	212.16	0.675	0.703	96.16
David Wells	SD	416	271	282.44	0.651	0.679	95.95
David Bush	Mil	594	395	412.87	0.665	0.695	95.67
Zach Duke	Pit	399	246	258.54	0.617	0.648	95.15
Jose Contreras	CWS	647	420	441.74	0.649	0.683	95.08
Kip Wells	StL	522	342	360.50	0.655	0.691	94.87
Scott Olsen	Fla	578	366	387.16	0.633	0.670	94.53

Chien-Ming Wang comes out on top by far, not surprising given the Yankees overall defensive rating. What bothers me about Wang, however, is the low level of his predicted DER. You would think that someone who gets a lot of ground balls would be somewhat higher. The following chart breaks down Wang by ball in play type:

CM Wang by Batted Ball Type, 2007

Batted Ball Type	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Fly	112	101	98.85	0.902	0.883	102.18
Liner	92	29	16.14	0.315	0.175	179.66
Grounder	377	291	269.40	0.772	0.715	108.02
Bunt Grounder	6	4	4.20	0.667	0.700	95.24
Bunt Fly	1	1	1.00	1.000	1.000	100.00
Fliner (Fly)	29	13	14.12	0.448	0.487	92.09
Fliner (Liner)	26	9	11.23	0.346	0.432	80.12

Notice that the defense behind Wang caught a lot more line drives than predicted. Line drives tend to fall for hits, so by adding thirteen extra outs with liners, the Yankees really helped Wang. So Chien-Ming got a bit lucky that way. The grounders, however, is where the defense really shined. They picked up about twenty one more outs than expected on ground balls. How did they do that? The Yankees made a lot of plays on low probability vectors:

Wang Ground Balls by Vector, 2007

Vector	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
28	8	6	7.02	0.750	0.877	85.52
29	17	13	12.05	0.765	0.709	107.90
30	29	21	17.57	0.724	0.606	119.49
31	28	27	24.76	0.964	0.884	109.04
32	19	18	18.43	0.947	0.970	97.66
33	32	29	26.75	0.906	0.836	108.40
34	17	12	9.48	0.706	0.558	126.59
35	11	9	7.38	0.818	0.671	121.97
36	23	14	13.01	0.609	0.566	107.58
37	22	12	13.66	0.545	0.621	87.82
38	27	24	23.07	0.889	0.854	104.04
39	31	30	25.58	0.968	0.825	117.26
40	22	19	17.41	0.864	0.792	109.11
41	34	24	17.12	0.706	0.504	140.19
42	27	17	19.83	0.630	0.734	85.73
43	11	9	9.71	0.818	0.883	92.67
44	10	5	4.56	0.500	0.456	109.71

The vectors go from a low of 28 at the third base line to a high of 44 at the first base line. By looking at the Predicted DER column, you can see where the holes are in the infield. Vector 30 represents the hole between third and short, vectors 34-37 the area around second base where ground balls go into centerfield, and vector 41, the hole between first and second. Note that Wang does well in the holes, as if the defense were shifted a bit toward first base. Both the line drive and ground ball data make me wonder if someone was doing a very good job of positioning the Yankees fielders. I don't know who was in charge of that, but in the case of Wang, they did a very good job.

That brings up a point I haven't made in a while. Range is probably a poor word for the ability measured here. Range implies that the fielder can move a long way to get a ball. But sometimes anticipating where the ball gets hit is just as important. So the ability to move and the ability to position are two factors in what the model means by range.

On the other end of the spectrum, Matt Cain not only received no run support, he didn't get much defensive support either. And the defense behind Kazmir was just ridiculous. Here's a pitcher who keeps balls in play to a minimum, and his defense can't turn the few hit to them into outs.

I'll start on individual positions tomorrow.

Baseball Info Solutions sent me their final stats for 2007 over the weekend. That means it's time to start presenting the 2007 Probabilistic Model or Range. If you're new to this, you can find explanations in this archive. Basically, for each fieldable (non inside the park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking.

The model is based primarily on visiting player data, smoothed, distance on fly balls. Only 2007 data was used to construct the model.

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. In fact, the team ranked first in 2007 is a bit of a surprise for that very reason.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Yankees	4511	3103	3041.46	0.688	0.674	0.01364
Red Sox	4226	2974	2919.61	0.704	0.691	0.01287
Cubs	4177	2943	2895.51	0.705	0.693	0.01137
Blue Jays	4349	3060	3017.22	0.704	0.694	0.00984
Royals	4528	3093	3058.20	0.683	0.675	0.00768
Angels	4325	2930	2900.79	0.677	0.671	0.00675
Phillies	4505	3085	3056.00	0.685	0.678	0.00644
Rockies	4599	3221	3195.95	0.700	0.695	0.00545
Tigers	4486	3094	3072.58	0.690	0.685	0.00477
Braves	4404	3069	3048.96	0.697	0.692	0.00455
Mets	4362	3050	3033.08	0.699	0.695	0.00388
Giants	4467	3108	3096.80	0.696	0.693	0.00251
Orioles	4403	3017	3006.12	0.685	0.683	0.00247
Rangers	4518	3071	3061.36	0.680	0.678	0.00213
Nationals	4591	3198	3191.04	0.697	0.695	0.00152
Indians	4548	3112	3107.26	0.684	0.683	0.00104
Padres	4476	3131	3128.60	0.700	0.699	0.00054
Mariners	4535	3050	3051.99	0.673	0.673	-0.00044
Diamondbacks	4351	3013	3016.84	0.692	0.693	-0.00088
Dodgers	4310	2942	2945.91	0.683	0.684	-0.00091
Cardinals	4587	3150	3154.99	0.687	0.688	-0.00109
Twins	4384	3003	3014.01	0.685	0.688	-0.00251
Astros	4530	3099	3120.86	0.684	0.689	-0.00483
Reds	4533	3068	3096.08	0.677	0.683	-0.00619
Pirates	4608	3099	3132.67	0.673	0.680	-0.00731
Athletics	4499	3110	3144.35	0.691	0.699	-0.00763
Brewers	4392	2966	3011.82	0.675	0.686	-0.01043
White Sox	4545	3089	3141.16	0.680	0.691	-0.01148
Marlins	4491	2962	3039.28	0.660	0.677	-0.01721
Devil Rays	4378	2867	2943.31	0.655	0.672	-0.01743

That's right, the Yankees are number one. Without running the individual numbers, I'm guessing that a full season of Melky Cabrera and keeping Giambi off first really helped. The Red Sox defense turned a higher percentage of their balls in play into outs, but they also were given easier balls to field in general.

I wondered why the Tampa Bay pitching staff did so poorly with the high number of strikeouts they collected, and the reason is clear in these numbers. The Devil Rays defense was horrible. In fact, the state of Florida just can't play defense, with the Marlins ranking 29th in the majors.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look a lot better than their posted DER. If they ever get a good set of pitchers on that team, they're going to post a low ERA.

For those of you who prefer a ranking by ratio of DER/Predicted DER, here's the table with that data.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Yankees	4511	3103	3041.46	0.688	0.674	102.02
Red Sox	4226	2974	2919.61	0.704	0.691	101.86
Cubs	4177	2943	2895.51	0.705	0.693	101.64
Blue Jays	4349	3060	3017.22	0.704	0.694	101.42
Royals	4528	3093	3058.20	0.683	0.675	101.14
Angels	4325	2930	2900.79	0.677	0.671	101.01
Phillies	4505	3085	3056.00	0.685	0.678	100.95
Rockies	4599	3221	3195.95	0.700	0.695	100.78
Tigers	4486	3094	3072.58	0.690	0.685	100.70
Braves	4404	3069	3048.96	0.697	0.692	100.66
Mets	4362	3050	3033.08	0.699	0.695	100.56
Orioles	4403	3017	3006.12	0.685	0.683	100.36
Giants	4467	3108	3096.80	0.696	0.693	100.36
Rangers	4518	3071	3061.36	0.680	0.678	100.31
Nationals	4591	3198	3191.04	0.697	0.695	100.22
Indians	4548	3112	3107.26	0.684	0.683	100.15
Padres	4476	3131	3128.60	0.700	0.699	100.08
Mariners	4535	3050	3051.99	0.673	0.673	99.93
Diamondbacks	4351	3013	3016.84	0.692	0.693	99.87
Dodgers	4310	2942	2945.91	0.683	0.684	99.87
Cardinals	4587	3150	3154.99	0.687	0.688	99.84
Twins	4384	3003	3014.01	0.685	0.688	99.63
Astros	4530	3099	3120.86	0.684	0.689	99.30
Reds	4533	3068	3096.08	0.677	0.683	99.09
Pirates	4608	3099	3132.67	0.673	0.680	98.93
Athletics	4499	3110	3144.35	0.691	0.699	98.91
Brewers	4392	2966	3011.82	0.675	0.686	98.48
White Sox	4545	3089	3141.16	0.680	0.691	98.34
Marlins	4491	2962	3039.28	0.660	0.677	97.46
Devil Rays	4378	2867	2943.31	0.655	0.672	97.41

C. Trent Rosecrans interviews John Dewan about the 2007 Fielding Bible awards.

On Baseball and the Reds is writing a series on defensive stats, including how to combine various range data into a better model.

Bob Melvin praises the Rockies defense:

"You gotta tip your hat," Arizona Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin said. "We hit some balls hard. Seemed like every ball we hit hard, someone ended up making a good play, whether it's in the outfield or infield.

"It's different than the Rockies you've seen in the past defensively. They're as good as anybody in baseball, and it's shown up all series."

The Rockies DER this season was .703, which is remarkable given their ballpark. Lots of hits tend to fall in the big outfield. I can't wait to see what PMR says about their team defense.

Coco Crisp almost makes a great defensive play in centerfield on Izturis. Crisp dives and gets the ball in his glove, but he loses it as he hits the ground. Izturs gets a double, the first extra-base hit allowed by Schilling in the game.

Update: Kendrick grounds to second, moving Izturis to third. The Angels don't have that many outs left, however, so even productive ones are costly.

Update: Rivera pops out to first on a split-finger that was sinking fast. Schilling's doing a great job today of keeping the Angels hitters off balance.

Update: Schilling strikes out Napoli to end the inning and get a short shutout. At 100 pitches, Curt is unlikely to come out for the eighth. It's an impressive outing that seems to be the norm for the new Schilling. He strikes out just four, and he only walked one. Instead of striking out a lot of batters, Schilling is causing them to hit the ball poorly. He's getting a lot of outs even with a lot of balls in play. The Red Sox defense helps there as well.

The Phillies load the bases with two outs in the second inning, but Oliver induces a ground ball to short. Ruiz was cutting in front of Reyes as the ball approached him, and Jose booted the grounder. He recovered and tried to throw to second, but the runner was already safe and the throw goes through Castillo. Two runs score on two errors by Reyes, and the normally sure-handed Mets defense costs them.

Perez continues to walk Phillies, as he walked Rollins to start the game and Eaton to load the bases. He's now walked 14 Phillies in 10 2/3 innings.

David Ortiz doubles off the wall in left, then Lowell singles hard to center. I was absolutely amazed that the third base coach sent Ortiz. Posada had to wait a second for David to slide into him. Melky picks up his fourteenth assist of the year, and the Red Sox have two outs and a man on second instead of first and third, one out.

Update: Giambi gets eaten up by a hot shot off Drew's bat and the Red Sox score their second run. There's been poor infield defense by the Yankees tonight.

Jeter's made too poor plays in the first inning. He made a bad throw on a ground by Lugo resulting in an error, and just now he booted a double play ground by David Ortiz, only getting an out at first. How he wins Gold Gloves is beyond me.

A very nice play by the Mariners in the top of the first inning. Willits leads off with a single, then goes on a hit and run with Cabrera at the plate. Orlando hits the ball the other way, just to the rightfield side of second. But Seattle had the shortstop cover on the play, so Lopez was in the perfect spot to make the play, make a quick toss to Betancourt who then completed the double play. They guessed right on that one.

Once again, you can help determine the best and worst defenders in baseball. TangoTiger needs your help. He want your opinions of fielders as he puts together The 2007 Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans. If you watch a lot of games and have opinions on fielders, please take his survey and be part of the wisdom of the crowds approach to quantifying defense.

Posada and Clemens combine for an interesting double play. With Inge on third and Maybin on first, Clemens strikes out Thames. Maybin was running, and as Posada threw, Inge broke for the plate. But Posada threw the ball to Clemens, not second base. Roger ran down Brandon for the second out to end the inning.

Roger has the strikeout pitch working today as he's K'd six through three innings. The Yankees lead 1-0 on a Posada homer as it's a Jorge Day on both sides of the ball.

Update: Maybin hits his first home run, a shot to straight-away center. The solo shot in the fifth gives the Tigers a 2-1 lead.

In the bottom of the eight in Cleveland, Byrdak walks two batters with two out to bring up Travis Hafner. He lines one to left center, where Granderson lays out to make a fantastic diving catch to keep the game tied. If Detroit wins this one, Curtis gets the game ball.

Update: In the bottom of the ninth, Chris Gomez leads off with a double. That brings up Peralta against Rodney. Jhonny was 0 for 8 vs. Rodney with three Ks. However, he's batted very well this season with men on base and with runners in scoring position. The announcers thought Peralta should bunt, but Wedge has him swing away and he strikes out on a heater right down the middle of the plate. I could go either way on this one, but it seems Peralta has a decent chance of ending the game by letting him swing away.

Update: Rodney strikes out the final two batters in the inning. They'll go to extra innings. The Indians struck out 13 times in the first nine, Detroit 11.

The Phillies defeated the Braves 5-3 tonight to take second place in the NL East. But Jeff Francoeur kept the Braves in the game with two base runner kills. That brings Jeff's total of outfielder assists to seventeen, six more than anyone else in the NL. I suspect coaches will stop sending runners on Francoeur soon.

Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter reach bases leading off the third inning on balls that could have been outs. Both went for hits. The first was a pop up behind second that just ticked off Peralta's glove, but he didn't take a great route to the ball. I would have given him an error. The second was a grounder up the middle by Jeter. Peralta dived for the ball, and it just ticked off his glove to put runners at first and third.

Then Abreu hit one up the middle, Peralta fielded it on the first-base side of second, but Barfield didn't cover, and by the time Jhonny was able to tag second, he couldn't get the double play. The Yankees lead 3-0 in the third.

The Toronto Blue Jays show off their arms in the top of the fifth. McDonald made a great throw from deep in the hole to nip A-Rod at first. Then for the second time tonight, Posada gets thrown out trying to stretch a double into a double. Rios got him in the fifth, and Reed Johnson caught him earlier. Finally, McDonald makes another nice play in the hole to force a runner at second to end the inning. The defense kept a 4-0 Yankees lead from expanding.

Great play at the plate in the Toronto-New York game. With the score 2-1 Toronto in the bottom of the ninth, Phillips singles and Cairo pinch runs and steals second. Cabrera singles to shallow right, and Miguel tries to score from second. Rios makes a great throw, and Zaun blocks the plate perfectly, flipping Cairo away from home and holding onto the ball for the out. Miguel may have injured his shoulder on the play.

Cabrera took second on the throw, then stole third with one out. Damon walks, and Jeter is up with the tying run 90 feet away.

Update: Accardo balks to force in the tying run and take away the double play. The great defensive play saves a run, but we'll see if it saves the game.

Update: Jeter hits a perfect double play ball to short, as does Abreu to end the inning. Without the balk, the Blue Jays win the game. Instead, the teams go to the tenth tied at two.

Update: Robinson Cano singles home A-Rod in the 10th and the Yankees take the game 3-2. The gain a game on the Red Sox and put a little more distance between them and the Blue Jays.

I just saw a very bad example of the umpire giving the second baseman the out on a double play just for being close to the bag. Fontenot took the throw from the third baseman about a foot in front of the bag. The camera work was bad and blurry, but the picture cleared as the camera came to rest on the second baseman. It was clear at that point he was no where near the bag, and there was no runner bearing down on him. You need to be a little closer than that.

The Milwaukee Brewers made four errors this afternoon, and at least one other bad play that went for a triple as they lose to Pittsburgh 6-2. The errors led to two unearned runs. Milwaukee had opportunities to score. They loaded the bases in the second but did not score. Shane Youman gave up eight hits, a walk and a hit batter in six innings of work, but allowed just two runs. Last year, despite walking ten and striking out just five in 21 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.91 ERA. It appears this pitcher bends but he doesn't break.

The Twins came up in the bottom of the ninth inning last night trailing 5-4 with Joe Mauer leading off the inning. Joe smacked a hard grounder up the middle, and off the bat I thought, "There's a hit." But as the camera turned to show the field, Royce Clayton was crouching in front of the ball, and made an easy play for an out. Clayton played Mauer perfectly, and what would be a single in many cases started a 1-2-3 inning for a Toronto victory.

The Blue Jays obviously did their homework. And of course, it's so easy to do today. Mauer seldom hits ground balls to the right of where Clayton was stationed. By positioning himself correctly, Royce Clayton is increasing his range without having to move a long distance for a ball. That's why, at some point, I'd love to get positioning information for players, so we can separate those player who can move long distances to get to balls vs. players who know where to stand before a ball is put in play.

With the win, the Blue Jays move over .500 and to 9 games behind Boston.

I'm starting to get some positive feedback on this Youkilis-Helton video.

Jason Michaels shows off his vertical leap as he skys over the fence in left to steal a home run from Craig Monroe. The Tigers picked up three straight hits, a triple by Guillen and singles by Rodriguez and Casey to cut the lead to 2-1. Monroe's shot would have put the Tigers up 4-2. Who says white men can't jump?

Hunter Pence makes a catch off Rich Aurilia at the 404 sign in centerfield. He was feeling for the wall, and thought he was close. He leaped for the ball, caught it, and looked like he thought he would crash against the padding. Instead, he fell over and hit his head in the seam where the wall angles in toward left. It was a scary crash, but Hunter held on and stayed in the game. If he was more aware of his position, he could have just kept going back to make the catch without leaping.

John Lowe reviews the Tigers outfield defense. It's a group effort:

The outfielders don't flip the ball to each other for outs like Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco do. But they consider their defense a collaboration.

"We communicate really well the whole game about (where) we're positioning ourselves," Ordonez said.

Monroe said: "Curtis makes sure that when he moves, he makes the rightfielder and leftfielder move. We talk about where to play the hitters. Curtis might look at me and say, 'What do you think?' We sometimes make the wrong decision, but when you do it as a group, it always feels better to know we were all committed to the same plan."

In the 1980s I used to sit in the centerfield bleachers at Fenway Park. I was always amazed that teams would come in that didn't do anything to position outfielders. No matter the hitter, they played everyone straight away. It's good to see the Tigers thinking about this and putting a plan into action.

Jacob Lous attended the Oakland game today and sends a word on Jason Kendall:

One of the craziest things to watch in baseball this year is the Jason Kendall shift. His name is announced, and three outfielders instantly start jogging - jogging - to a new spot. I've never seen anything like it.

LF and CF jog 20 feet to the right since he pulls the ball so seldomly, and the rightfielder moves in at least 15 feet. Part of the reason his BA is so low this year is that teams have figured out that a high percentage of his hits come on dinkers to right. With so few XBH, he rarely makes anyone pay by hitting it over their head, and the CF shades far enough to right to prevent a triple if it's hit over the RF's head.

Kendall broke up a no-hitter recently because of this shift.

The Braves are losing 8-0 in the bottom of the sixth, but Andrew Jones just channelled Willie Mays. On a ball to deep centerfield, Andruw ran straight back, looking over his right shoulder, and made a basket catch for the out. Here's the Mays catch. Both are pretty plays.

Orlando Cabrera clocks Reggie Willits in the jaw as they both go for a fly ball down the line in leftfield. Cabrera was calling for the ball but it's not clear that Willits did also. Cabrerra made the catch, and ran the ball in to prevent Blalock from scoring from third while Willits lay on the ground. Reggie stayed in the game.

Kevin Millwood re-injured his hamstring. He gave up a grand slam to Kotchman in the first, and the Angels lead 4-0 in the top of the third.

The Mariners turn two pretty plays in the top of the third. Phelps hits a bouncer in the hole that Betancourt backhands, jumps and throws to beat Phelps by a mile. He made the catch and throw in one smooth motion. Then Cano hit a nubber between the catcher and the pitcher toward third base. Ramirez was quick off the mound, made a strong throw but wide, but Sexson used his height to stretch, catch and hold the bag for the third out.

Brew Crew Ball notes a number of good defensive plays by the Brewers last night. They're not a great defense right now. The Hardball Times puts their DER at .694, tied for eighth in the NL. But THT's +/- rating assigns better numbers to the fielders than the pitchers, so in fact Milwaukee's defens is doing a pretty good job.

Earlier today I discussed a Bill James observation that Coco Crisp played an excellent centerfield over the last two weeks. I've looked that the probability of his putouts using last year's probabilistic model of range (PMR). Bill was right on.

This season, Crisp caught nine balls that weren't caught last year. There was a small sample size on each of those, so zero might not be accurate, but nine of those catches came in the last two weeks. Overall, he caught fifteen balls where the probability was less than or equal to .5, and 13 of those came from 4/23 on. If I had data on balls he didn't catch, we could do a complete analysis, but it sure looks like Bill's observation is true, that over the last two week Crisp is making difficult plays.

Bill James sent an e-mail to a few sabermetric friends this afternoon praising Coco Crisp. Seth Mnookin posted here. The main quote from James:

"It seems to me that the BIGGEST factor in our team's performance over the last week or so has been that Coco has been just unbelievable in center field...he's just catching EVERYTHING that looks like it might be trouble. There's been no gap in right center, no gap in left center, nothing getting over his head and nothing has been landing in front of him."

Seth gives an example from Friday night's game. I was able to obtain data on Crisp's putouts, and since April 23rd, Coco started seven games, collecting 34 putouts or about five a game. In his previous 15 starts, Coco recorded 41 putouts, or less than three per game. So over the last couple of weeks, Crisp is up about two putouts per game. There's not a lot of context here. I don't know if more balls are being hit in his general area. But I'm trying to get a handle on the degree of difficulty of the catches, and I'll post when I have something on that.

Update: Here's a chart of Crisp's putouts this season. Second base is at 180 degrees. (Click for a larger image.)

As you can see, he's catching balls close and far, and he's covering thirty degrees of the field.

A ball just dropped between Jason Kubel and Torii Hunter because Torii didn't do his job as a centerfielder and try to catch everything. He jogged after a ball he thought Kubel could catch, rather than running full speed and calling Kubel off. Kubel thought Hunter would get the ball, and it fell for a hit to put runners on first and second with one out.

Update: Santana gets a strikeout and ground out to end the inning. No score at the end of two in Detroit.

Manny Stiles documents the Pronk shift, used against Travis Hafner last night.

Nate Robertson picks up an error on a throw to first, because he faked out his own first baseman. Nate takes off his hat and is wiping his brow when he throws quickly to first. Casey, seeing Robertson apparently taking a moment, takes off his glove for an adjustment. The ball sails by, and Ozuna ends up at second. He's at third after a single, and ties the game on a sacrifice fly by Thome.

Manny made a bad throw earlier today, so I should I should praise a good defensive play as well. He just made a nice running catch over his shoulder as he ran back toward the leftfield wall, just on the edge of the warning track. The fact that Manny can make plays like that is one of the infuriating things about his defense. You get the feeling sometimes he doesn't try.

Gary Matthews, Jr. just made another great catch, robbing Michael Young of a home run at the centerfield fence. He's making the Rangers really miss him.

Update: Matthews then leads off the inning with a high chop that lands behind McCarthy for a single. A wild pitch and two singles later the Angels lead 1-0. Not surprisingly, Guerrero drove in the run with another hit against the Angels.

Update: The Angels score four in the first, ruining McCarthy's debut with Texas.

The Mets pitchers so far allowed a .348 OBA. That's high for a staff. But that number gets cut down by the number of ground double plays induced. Overall, New York pitchers allowed 16 Cardinals to reach base via a hit, walk or hit by pitch in sixty nine plate appearances. But if you remove the seven runners taken out on double plays, the effective OBA against the Mets is just .246, which is excellent.

On Baseball and the Reds is doing nice work with The Hardball Times defensive numbers, coming up with a way to convert THT's zone ratings to a +/- system. The Probabilistic Model of Range lends a hand. What's nice about this is that it looks like something that can be calculated during the season.

Correction: Fixed the link.

Emil Brown fights back against criticism of his defense:

Emil Brown glanced at the lineup card Sunday morning in the Royals' clubhouse, turned and observed to anyone within listening distance:

"I guess my defense is good enough for me to be in right field today."

The words came out as a challenge and borderline belligerent. The message was unmistakable. Brown has had it with those who label him "an adventure," or worse, in the outfield, on the bases or anywhere else.

His irritation centers on the media, first and foremost, but not exclusively. His fed-up list includes anyone trashing his skills, be they players or officials with other clubs -- or within the Royals' organization.

"I hear it all of the time," Brown said. "He's an adventure out there. Why? Because I'm actually trying to make plays happen?

"It isn't an adventure for (Twins outfielder) Torii Hunter when he dives for a ball and misses it. Then, it's, 'Oh, he just missed it.' He gets the benefit of the doubt because he's a Gold Glover. But it's an adventure when I do it."

Emil makes a good point. If you look at his defensive charts for 2006, Brown isn't a star defender, but he's basically making the plays. It doesn't matter how smooth you look catching the ball, as long as you make the catch.

A few days ago I introduced the idea of a probabilistic model of Ground into Double Plays (GDP). The probabilistic model of range just measures the ability to turn a ball into an out. For infielders, however, they're often asked to turn a ground ball into more than one out. The idea is to take a very specific situation; ground ball hit, man on first, less than two out and build a model that measures both plays made and GDP turned. With that model, we can ask which fielders perform well in that situation.

In building this model, I left parks out of the parameters. Basically, I thought the sample size would be too small if I left the parks in. This probably hurts the three teams that play of artifical turf.

Let's start by looking at the ability of shortstops to start a double play. The following table looks at three indexes for each fielder. The Plays Made (PM) index measures Plays Made / Predicted Plays Made. This measures the fielder's ability to turn a ball into an out. The GDP index does the same for ground double plays. Does the fielder start the expected number of double plays? And finally, an outs index that looks at the total number of outs accured to the fielder on these balls in play. It could be a fielder is making up for a lack of range by being really good at starting GDPs, or vice versa. Remember, this says nothing about the pivot man or the receiver at first base. In this context, we're only looking at the fielder who starts the play.

Probabilistic Model of GDPs, Ground Balls, Man on First, Less than Two Out, Shortstops Starting GDP (2006 Data Used to Build Model)

Player	Ground Balls In Play	Actual Plays Made	Predicted Plays Made	PM Index	Actual GDP	Predicted GDP	GDP Index	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Index
Craig Counsell	183	40	32.14	124.44	32	21.23	150.72	72	53.38	134.89
Khalil Greene	219	53	45.27	117.08	31	28.68	108.07	84	73.95	113.59
Stephen Drew	121	26	23.68	109.82	17	14.29	118.92	43	37.97	113.25
Clint Barmes	283	56	53.75	104.18	42	33.03	127.16	98	86.78	112.92
Juan Uribe	274	58	50.75	114.29	34	31.85	106.75	92	82.60	111.38
Hanley Ramirez	352	71	67.58	105.05	49	43.18	113.48	120	110.76	108.34
Miguel Tejada	342	76	72.84	104.33	52	45.35	114.66	128	118.20	108.30
David Eckstein	298	61	56.74	107.50	38	34.92	108.81	99	91.67	108.00
Jack Wilson	290	64	62.47	102.45	46	39.39	116.77	110	101.86	107.99
Rafael Furcal	396	92	85.54	107.55	58	55.24	104.99	150	140.78	106.55
Bill Hall	228	55	50.83	108.21	33	32.90	100.30	88	83.73	105.10
Bobby Crosby	237	44	42.12	104.47	29	27.37	105.94	73	69.49	105.05
Alex Gonzalez	244	50	51.18	97.69	38	33.41	113.74	88	84.59	104.03
Jimmy Rollins	333	70	69.50	100.72	48	44.05	108.97	118	113.54	103.92
Carlos Guillen	303	65	64.24	101.18	45	41.63	108.10	110	105.87	103.90
Adam Everett	309	66	63.51	103.91	41	40.15	102.11	107	103.67	103.22
Ronny Cedeno	240	49	46.28	105.87	28	29.54	94.79	77	75.82	101.55
Michael Young	410	88	86.89	101.28	54	55.41	97.46	142	142.30	99.79
Jason A Bartlett	214	50	47.40	105.49	28	31.86	87.90	78	79.25	98.42
Jose Reyes	304	67	66.70	100.45	40	43.66	91.62	107	110.36	96.96
Omar Vizquel	297	64	65.48	97.73	42	44.00	95.45	106	109.49	96.82
John McDonald	170	25	26.52	94.26	18	17.91	100.50	43	44.43	96.77
Orlando Cabrera	319	58	60.40	96.03	38	39.02	97.38	96	99.42	96.56
Felipe Lopez	319	67	64.47	103.93	34	40.58	83.78	101	105.05	96.15
Angel Berroa	337	69	72.29	95.44	46	47.91	96.02	115	120.20	95.67
Jhonny Peralta	357	82	84.45	97.10	50	55.63	89.88	132	140.08	94.23
Alex Cora	127	30	32.94	91.07	21	22.16	94.76	51	55.10	92.56
Marco Scutaro	146	34	37.58	90.47	24	25.22	95.15	58	62.81	92.35
Edgar Renteria	347	63	67.67	93.10	39	43.19	90.30	102	110.86	92.01
Yuniesky Betancourt	350	60	66.40	90.36	43	46.02	93.44	103	112.42	91.62
Julio Lugo	182	32	35.29	90.68	21	23.66	88.74	53	58.95	89.90
Ben T Zobrist	131	25	28.09	89.00	17	18.93	89.82	42	47.02	89.33
Juan Castro	146	23	25.18	91.33	13	15.27	85.11	36	40.46	88.98
Derek Jeter	336	63	70.96	88.79	40	45.81	87.32	103	116.77	88.21
Royce Clayton	234	43	47.02	91.44	20	29.67	67.40	63	76.70	82.14
Aaron W Hill	108	16	20.33	78.70	7	12.82	54.62	23	33.14	69.39

Notice how few chances fielders get to turn GDPs. On the best teams, they get a little over two chances a game. Secondly, Arizona does a good job of picking out shortstops, as Counsell and Drew are near the top of the list. And if you don't like Derek Jeter, here's another area where you can pick on him.

The other thing that strikes me about the list is that shortstops who are good at making plays are also the ones good at starting double plays. Ronny Cedeno is unusual in that he's good at getting an out, but didn't do well starting DPs. Could it be that Todd Walker was just a poor pivot man? I hope further research using these models will help answer that question.

Dan Rosenheck looks to see if Manny Ramirez's defense is hurting his value to the Red Sox (full disclosure, I was consulted on the article):

The truth most likely lies in the middle: the average of the P.B.P. systems' results for Ramírez is 15 to 20 runs below average. That's enough to take a significant bite out of his value. If his hitting begins to deteriorate this season (he turns 35 in May), and his base running remains poor (subtracting another two runs or so), he is likely to be worth about as much in 2007 as Oakland's up-and-coming Nick Swisher. In other words, an All-Star, but not a franchise player, and certainly not worth anywhere near his $20 million salary.

I put the cost of Manny in left field at no more than 16 runs in 2006, whereas Dan believes that the minimum. Dan is also basing Manny's worth on Ramriez's worth on his continuing at that level of defense and his offense declining due to age. But of the three years I've measured Ramirez, 2006 was by far the worst reading I've seen on him. Manny complained of a bad right knee in 2006. If that's better and he becomes more mobile, I suspect the number of balls he gets to goes up as well.

So I'm not quite as dire as Dan in assessing the worth of Ramirez. He a great player in his mid 30's, and I'm not surprised he is showing signs of decline.

Miguel Tejada took complaints about his lack of range seriously this off season. He's come to camp in excellent shape and is actually working on increasing the area he can cover:

Shiner said Tejada's workouts have been focused on improving his foot speed and movement. During one drill, Tejada shuffles back and forth between cones as Shiner rolls baseballs to him. The exercise is designed to maximize the steps to get to the ball, simulating the act of fielding a baseball while moving left or right. Team officials have been pleased with the range Tejada has shown thus far in camp.

"He is moving around a lot better than he did last year," Perlozzo said. "When his knee was bad [last year], I knew there was nothing that I can do about that. ... It was an up-and-down year for him defensively for multiple reasons."

Teammates said Tejada got a bad rap for his defense last season, considering that he was nursing knee and hamstring injuries the first couple of months of the season. Tejada did make 19 errors, tying his lowest total for a full season in his career. But it was his range that was often criticized by scouts and baseball officials.

"He wasn't fully healthy early last year and yet he still went out there and did all he could. Of course, your range is going to be limited, but most guys wouldn't have even been out there," Gomez said. "He got healthy soon thereafter, and I thought he was great. I don't think anybody could deny that. He got this label, where someone says one thing about range and all of a sudden you don't have range. It sticks. I think it is really unfair."

We'll see if his PMR improves at the end of the season.

Via Dodger Thoughts, there's a new trick play in baseball:

Born in the imagination of a minor-league pitching coach, carried from Class A to the brink of the big leagues by an over-achieving, side-arming right-hander, "The 3-2" is a pick-off move that is challenging umpires at least as much as it is eliminating baserunners.

Footage of the move, captured accidentally Friday night by a Venezuelan film crew stationed behind home plate at Surprise Stadium, has been carried on compact disc from Arizona to the Major League Baseball offices in New York City. Duplicates will go out to umpiring supervisors and trickle into the minor leagues.

The pickoff play begins with the bases loaded or runners at second and third. The pitcher fakes the throw to third, then allows that momentum to carry him - 270 degrees counter-clockwise - into a throw to second base. It works best with the bases loaded, when it comes disguised as the more familiar third-to-first pickoff.

I can't find a link to the video on Google or YouTube, so if someone finds it let me know.

Two views of Kenji Johjima's defense are offered by Prospect Insider and Detect-o-Vision.

Range isn't a good measure of defense for catchers, but PMR is neutral on Johjima. That says to me he moves as well as most catchers. It's a pretty small sample size, however, as you can see from his charts.

It looks like the Angels are on the verge of a huge improvement in their outfield defense. Not only is Matthews going to take pressure of Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson's feet are healthy again:

But the Angels' veteran left fielder also was somewhat offended by media reports framing the Matthews signing as one that would ease the burden on Anderson and right fielder Vladimir Guerrero.

"I've heard that several times this winter, and I don't really know what it means," Anderson said. "I don't think I've been a liability out there, other than the fact I haven't been able to play. I know I took a lot of heat last year because I played hurt. I should have just not played. I wouldn't have taken any heat for that."

An inflamed arch in his left foot hindered Anderson for most of 2006 and contributed to knee and lower-back problems. He was relegated to a career-high 45 games at designated hitter, but in 94 games in the outfield, Anderson didn't commit an error.

Vlad was actually okay on fly balls last year. He basically performed up to expectations. It was Anderson who needed help in the gaps. If Garret's feet are indeed better, we should see good fielding across the board in the Angels' outfield.

I'll be attending Andy Andres Sabermetrics 101 class tonight for the lecture on defense. Required reading this week was the PMR archive.

Ron Washington drilled into the Texas pitching staff the importance of fielding their position, using the Detroit Tigers World Series performance as an example. The pitchers then went through their drills:

And so for about 45 minutes on Sunday, Rangers' pitchers shuttled through three different stations.

At one, they fielded slow-rolling grounders and practiced getting into throwing position without ever releasing a ball. At a second station, they fielded hard-hit ground balls. At the third, they raced to first to be prepared for tosses when the first baseman had to make the play.

None of it was new. It's a drill that goes on in every camp for at least 10 days.

Often that is the end of it. It may be for the Rangers, too, but during his interview, Washington brought up the idea of occasionally taking defensive practice during the season.

It's amazing to me that pitchers don't do defensive drills during the season. Once a week for 45 minutes, would likely be good for all of them.

It looks like Ken Griffey, Jr. is going to start the season in centerfield for the Reds. Red Reporter disagrees.

Why is there so much dismissal of Chris Denorfia? The Reds don't seem to take him seriously, which is bizarre to me because you'd think he'd fit the profile of what Krivsky likes in a player. His effort level is off the charts, and he's a good defender.

Denorfia owns a very good minor league OBA and a good major league OBA for a good defensive centerfielder. He's 27 for the 2007 season, and should be at the top of his game. He'll likely get on base at a .360 clip and catch the ball. I agree with Red Reporter, it's an obvious move, especially given Griffey's poor range.

John Walsh delivers his outfield arm rankings for 2006 at The Hardball Times. I especially like the graph he includes, showing where the outfielders lie on a runners held vs. runners killed basis. The upper right quadrant is fascinating. It's the quadrant where fielders are good at both, but within that quadrant an increase in an ability to kill a runner leads to a decrase in the ability to hold a runner. So no one comes close to being great at both.

Felix Pie's defense is the reason the Cub Reporter thinks the rookie will get more time to develop than Corey Patterson:

Is Felix Pie ready, then? Probably not, if ready means doing much more than flashing his offensive potential. But great athletes learn to hit, largely because their defense buys them the time that Jason Dubois won't have. Meanwhile Pie can anchor center field, which is something, not nothing. Cub fans in particular might have a problem with this patient approach because it didn't work with Corey Patterson. We waited and waited and he never got better.

The problem with Corey Patterson, I would argue, was not so much his slow progress as a hitter but the fact that his defense couldn't carry him, get him over the rough spots, ease the pressure. Bottom line, he was not a great fielder, and it's a little mysterious why, since he could run and he could throw. But the catching part sometimes eluded him. Midway through his tenure with the Cubs, I started asking myself, if he's a great fielder, how come he never makes great plays? My teenage son used to put together homemade highlight reels, and once he asked me to sit down to watch a collection of Patterson web-gems. I said, okay, but look closely and you'll see that in every catch his left elbow is bent. And it was true, both when he dove and when he leaped. There was something tentative about it. The sort of thing that Juan Pierre did ten times last year, where you lay flat out in a dive, parallel to the ground, arm and glove fully extended-Patterson didn't do that. He lacked the physical commitment, or courage, that defines an athlete. Patterson was the image of an athlete. He may have been born to play a great athlete in a movie. But he wasn't one. Several scouts out there with egg on their faces should be implementing a new Patterson Rule: don't say a guy has five tools until you've seen him do something special in the field. Patterson is partly a victim of bad scouting (he said, with great hindsight).

It may be six, seven years before we know what kind of hitter Pie is going to become, especially in terms of power numbers. But it will only take about a month to tell if he's the real deal as an athlete. If he is, then the comparisons with Patterson should stop right there.

Here's my latest video, a quick look at Todd Helton and Kevin Youkilis fielding grounders.

Here's the full set of charts for Helton and Youkilis.

Over the weekend, Alfonso Soriano agreed to play centerfield, opening up a spot for Cliff Floyd on the Cubs roster.

The Floyd deal, which might be completed this week, has been in the works since the winter meetings, but the Cubs weren't sure whether they would add Floyd or a veteran center fielder to hold down the fort until prospect Felix Pie is ready at midseason. Floyd, a former Thornwood star, is expected to serve as a fourth outfielder, giving left fielder Matt Murton and right fielder Jacque Jones regular rest.

So does this push Pie back in the depth chart? Or will the Cubs look to make a trade once Pie is ready to play?

Lee Panas combines four measures of range into one by treating them as four voting systems and averaging the ranks. We used to do this sort of combination when I worked in information retrieval and we wanted to combine the results from multiple search engines. In general, it's a good way to combine various opinions.

I'd like to explore positioning as part of the Probabilistic Model of Range. One thing that I believe would be easy to record is the direction and distance the fielder moved to get to a ball. The direction could be coded using the digits 1-9 as follows:

1	2	3
4	5	6
7	8	9

Where 5 would be straight at the fielder, 8 would be in front, 4 to the fielder's right, etc. What I'd like to get opinions on is if the X and Y axis should be fixed for all fielders or float depending on the position. For centerfielder and pitchers, the X axis would be a line that went through home plate and second base, while the Y axis would go through third and first. But for a shortstop, the X axis could go through second and third base, with the Y axis perpendicular to that. In the case of a fixed axes through 2nd-home and 3rd-first, a ball in the hole that's fielded by the short stop would be coded a 7. In the second case, where we adjust the axes to the fielder, it would be a 4, since the fielder moved to his right. My feeling is the second way is superior. However, with so many shifts being employed now, which often put the shortstop on the second base side of the bag, the fixed axes approach might be more accurate. I'd like to hear your opinions on the matter.

Baseball Digest Daily interviews Bill James on the 2006 Fielding Bible Awards. Here he talks about Mike Lowell:

Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air.

The interview is definitely worth the read.

It's time once again for you to be the scout and help Tangotiger judge defensive ability. I believe this is the third year Tom conducted this survey, using the knowledge of fans to rate the defensive ability of players. The more input he gets, the better his results. So if you watch baseball, go to his site and take part.

There is an enormous amount of untapped knowledge here. There are 70 million fans at MLB parks every year, and a whole lot more watching the games on television. When I was a teenager, I had no problem picking out Tim Wallach as a great fielding 3B, a few years before MLB coaches did so. And, judging by the quantity of non-stop standing ovations Wallach received, I wasn't the only one in Montreal whose eyes did not deceive him. Rondel White, Marquis Grissom, Larry Walker, Andre Dawson, Hubie Brooks, Ellis Valentine. We don't need stats to tell us which of these does not belong.

WasWatching reviews the botched popup that made the Orioles blowout a slightly larger blowout.

In the YES replays, you clearly see Jeter moving his mouth when the pop is in the air. It appears that he's saying "I got it!" a few times. In the same replays, you never see A-Rod open his mouth, at all.

Rodriguez was clearly planted under the ball. He was in perfect position to catch it. Jeter had to range to his right to get towards the ball. I would offer that Derek had to move around 10 feet, away from his position on the pitch, towards the foul line, to get to where the ball was going to land.

Jeter went behind A-Rod and their gloves bumped as they both reached up for the ball. That appeared to be the only serious contact between the two players. It seemed as if their gloves met just as the ball was going into the pocket of A-Rod's mitt - and that knocked the ball loose.

The rule on the Yankees should be that Jeter catches all pop ups, even the ones hit directly at another fielder, to make up for all the ground balls that go through the shortstop position. :-)

The Tigers are up 3-0 after three innings, but the bottom of the third ended with Dmitri Young thrown out at the plate by Nelson Cruz. Young was at second with two out when Pudge Rodriguez singled to right. Gene Lamont waved Young around third. Cruz fired home, and Gerald Laird waited a good two second before he needed to make the tag. It's not often you see someone thrown out at the play by 20 feet.

Correction: I had the wrong numbers this morning. A program I thought was computing GDPs was computing something else. Sorry for the confusion. This post is correct.

The Arizona Diamondback turned five double plays last night, setting a team record.

The Diamondbacks turned a club-record five double plays - three 5-4-3s, a 4-6-3 and a 1-4-3 - as Batista was able to pick up win No. 10 despite allowing the Giants to begin three innings with back-to-back singles.

Arizona ranks third in GDPs induced:

Defense	GDP
KC	115
COL	112
OAK	110
ARI	110
STL	107
HOU	105
FLA	104
LAD	103
PHI