Art Martone donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to the Projo Sox Blog.

George Kottaras gets a chance to catch Tim Wakefield this week:

After all, Kottaras, 25, might have a shot to become the knuckleballer's personal batterymate.

The early odds-on favorite for that position is Josh Bard, but anything can happen during spring training. Bard has caught Wakefield in all three of his outings during camp, but Kottaras will get his opportunity to work with the veteran in a game on Thursday.

During their conversation on Sunday, Wakefield told Kottaras to take charge out there and have fun with it. Red Sox manager Terry Francona has said he wants to see how Kottaras can handle the job.

"We need to do that," Francona said.

Bard did a poor job with Wakefield in his last stint with Boston, so the Red Sox need a backup plan.

Many years ago in one of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James explored the possibility that Ozzie Smith saved the Cardinals 100 runs with his glove (according to Whitey Herzog). James pegged it at closer to 25. Tom Tango looks at the savings a great fielder provides and finds it's about 25 runs. Nice to see different studies years apart come to the same conclusion.

J.C. Bradbury excerpts the new book from John Dewan, The Fielding Bible--Volume II. They now use run potentials to assign run values to +/- scores, and I think I can adapt something similar to the probabilistic model of range.

Hat tip, The Book Blog.

Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Josh Bard did not let a Tim Wakefield pitch get by Wednesday night.

Michael Walsh says we're all wrong about Derek Jeter's defense, because his actual errors haven't cost the Yankees that many games!

Regardless of the conclusions of any individual study, scientific or otherwise, there is no question that Derek Jeter is nothing less than a solid defender. For anyone to even infer that he may be the worst fielder in all of baseball is simply ridiculous. Truth be told, the current version of Derek Jeter is flashing better leather than the 23-year-old kid who made those costly errors in 1997.

In 2008 Jeter made fewer errors than all but one American League shortstop (Gold Glove winner Michael Young). Yuniesky Betancourt made 21 errors and swung a very average stick. I have yet to see one article proclaiming Betancourt the "least effective" defensive player in the game. Perhaps that's because articles and studies about Yuniesky Betancourt are about as interesting as an Andy Warhol flick. Derek Jeter's celebrity is enormous. I can't think of another shortstop in the big leagues that makes commercials and dates movie stars. Is there a better way to get people talking about your study or newspaper article than to discount the abilities of one of the most recognizable athletes on the planet?

It's not about the errors Jeter makes, it's about all the balls that he never gets a glove on that other shortstops turn into outs. I'm surprised an article like this made it to Dugout Central.

Lyflines examines the idea that Jason Varitek improves the Boston pitching staff.

Brian Cartwright developed a probabilistic model of catcher caught stealings. The three Molina brothers all come out near the top of the list in 2008.

Via The Detroit Tigers Weblog, Lynn Henning does a good job of explaining the defensive statistics the Tigers are using to evaluate players and improve the left side fielders.

Dombrowski talked about defense as coverage during Saturday's TigerFest at Comerica Park.

"A lot of guys can make the stationary play, but they have no range to their left or right," Dombrowski said. "(Those balls) are base hits, not outs. Brandon Inge and Adam Everett get not only the stationary ball hit at them, but they have range."
Much more range, in fact, than their predecessors, Guillen and Renteria. In plus-minus rankings by Dewan that document how many more, or how many fewer, ground balls are gathered by a particular fielder, Renteria was 28th among shortstops in 2008.

Guillen, who was being asked to adjust to his second new position in one season, was 23rd among third basemen.

It's nice to see these statistics working their way into newspaper articles. However, I'd like to see something on the offensive tradeoffs here.

The Hardball Times publishes the best outfield arms of 2008.

DRays Bay examines the reasons for Jason Barlett's defensive decline in 2008.

Nico at Athletics Nation wonders if Oakland signs Giambi if they'll use a shift of infielders to make up for Jason's lack of range. Chase Utley appeared to shade toward first base to help out Ryan Howard this year, so it just might work.

Tom Tango compares both UZR models with PMR at The Book Blog.

Dan Turkenkopf runs correlations of UZR and PMR and I find them surprisingly low, given the two systems use the same data.

Both PMR and UZR were calculated using the Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data set this season. I wonder if David or MGL might be able to give some ideas as to where the differences might come from.

I don't know enough about the UZR calculations to speculate. I base my models mostly on visiting players in parks, however. UZR might use all the data. I also don't know if UZR, like +/-, doesn't penalize players for outs made by others. In PMR. If the right fielder catches a ball that the centerfielder might be able to catch, the centerfielder is penalized. In +/-, the centerfielder is not. Given the low correlation with centerfielders, I suspect that's the case.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is now available on FanGraphs.com. The version on FanGraphs uses BIS data, not STATS, Inc. data, so it will be interesting to see how it compares to the Probabilistic Model of Range, which also uses BIS. Taking a quick look at shortstop, Jeter finishes in the middle of the pack, just like in PMR.

Jeter is really getting hammered in the media for his rank in the Fielding Bible Awards. How many years does he need to rank at the bottom of shortstops before the Yankees move him?

Centerfield, right now, is still open. Put Jeter there where his speed and fly ball instincts work. Especially if the Yankees end up with Derek Lowe, they are going to need a shortstop who can gobble up the ball.

For those of you who are waiting, Probabilistic Model of Range rankings are coming soon.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff proposes a rule for Ryan Howard and throws.

Spitting Seeds is concerned B.J. Upton plays too shallow in centerfield. I think most outfielder play too deep, so I can't really complain about this too much.

Mike Cameron explains here why he misjudged the ball that led to the Phillies runs.

"I cut across like it was going to go down but it kept rising," said Cameron. "My first instinct was that it was not going to travel, because of the way the wind was blowing. It just kind of took off."

Mike chases fly balls differently than most outfielders. Instead of tracking the ball all the way, Mike developed an excellent pattern recognizer that allows him to judge where the ball will go off the bat and run there without following the ball too closely. Today, that recognizer made a mistake. Despite that, he almost made a great catch.

It's a good thing Corey Hart stands 6' 6". On a Werth fly to right, Corey fought the sun and picked up the ball at the last second. He stretched out his arm and just reached the ball, tumbling up holding on. The catch came with two on and two out and preserved the Brewers 3-1 lead at the end of five.

A new study reveals why line drives hit right at an outfielder are so difficult to catch:

Then they presented their subjects with two targets moving at the same speed -- one laterally and one in depth -- and asked them to decide which was faster. On average, they said the lateral motion was 1.3 to 2.7 times faster than an object at the identical speed but moving straight at them.

Finally, they asked their subjects to estimate the angle at which an object was approaching them. The trajectory of an object moving close to the midline of vision was consistently harder to predict than objects moving at greater angles to the observer.

In other words, when the object was moving directly toward them, people were terrible at estimating distance, bad at guessing speed and highly inaccurate at predicting trajectory -- a combination all but guaranteed to increase the opposition's batting average.

Very cool. So next time an outfielder misses a hard shot right at him, cut the player some slack.

Once again, Tom Tango is looking for your help in rating fielders. Here's your chance to add your expertise to the fans scouting report.

The Phillies make two nice catches in the top of the sixth against the Dodgers. Loney hit a long drive to deep centerfield, and Shane Victorino ran it down, making it look easy. With Garciaparra at first with two out, Martin hit a pop foul down the rightfield line. Ryan Howard raced down the line dived near the stands and made the catch. The Phillies are known for their offense, but in a 1-1 game they are flashing a little leather.

Howard, who made the great play to end the top of the inning, leads off the bottom half.

Lyle Overbay just saved the game for the Blue Jays. With the score 2-1 in favor of Toronto in the top of the ninth, Alex Rodriguez hits one off the end of the bat that lands over Overbay's head in right. A-Rod wasn't running that hard, thinking it would either be caught or fall for a single. The ball however, rolled away from Lyle, and Alex turned it on for second. Overbay ran the ball down, slid picking it up and made a perfect throw to second to nab Alex. B.J. Ryan retires the last two batters and Toronto wins 2-1. They are now just one game behind the Yankees for third place in the AL East.

Rare poor defense by the Angels allows the Yankees to tie the game in the eighth. Ivan Rodriguez singles (he homered earlier). Melky Cabrera is sent to sacrifice, but Shields falls behind 3-0, and Melky takes two to run the count 3-2. At that point, Justin Christian pinch runs, and starts on the next pitch. Aybar moves to cover second, and Melky grounds one right to him. He's not ready for it, and the ball bounds off his chest for an error. Then, the two attempt a double steal. Figgins is in as Damon squared to bunt, and Mathis throws to a back-peddling Figgins, but the ball goes into leftfield. Christian scores, and the Yankees now have 2nd and 3rd with one out. Usually, it's the Angels speed and the Yankees poor defense that makes the difference between these two teams.

Update: Abreu walks to load the bases. A-Rod hits a grounder to third, but instead of a double play, Figgins bobbles the ball and doesn't get an out. The Yankees take a 10-9 lead.

Update: Cano knocks in two with a single and the Yankees take a 12-9 lead.

Nate DiMeo pens an article for Slate titled, "Derek Jeter vs. Objective Reality." He's asking why there is a disconnect between what fans think of Jeter's defense and what statistical research shows. There's another question he asks as well:

If the sabermetric case against Jeter's glove has long been closed, why do the sabermetricians keep opening it? In an e-mail, Tom Tango joked that Jeter comes up again and again "because he gets far more girls than his fielding talents should allow." And there's probably something to that: The stat guys want to kick a little sand back at the press-box bullies--all of whom seem to have Word macros for phrases like "nerd writing in his mother's basement"--who lazily swallow the myth of Jeter's fielding prowess.

But the better answer is that Jeter's defense is at the heart of the conflict between sabermetrics and traditional baseball fandom. A recent article by Baseball Prospectus' Dan Fox poses the age-old question, "[W]hat would Sir Francis Bacon, the English philosopher and statesman, have thought of Jeter's defense?" Fox, who recently announced his departure from the blog world to join the front office of the Pittsburgh Pirates, looks back to Bacon's notion that people tend to think that memorable incidents define the whole. So we see Jeter flip the ball to Posada or emerge bloodied after leaping into the stands to catch a Trot Nixon foul ball and think "great fielder." Bacon, like today's statistical innovators, would seek out objective scientific data to understand the larger truth about Mr. Jeter. These data show that--yes, Sox fans--Jeter totally sucks.

I would note, too, that the case for OBA was made in quite the same way. Sabermetricans talked and talked about OBA for years before people started to pay attention. It was probably Sandy Alderson who helped move it into the main stream. I remember an ESPN broadcast where Gary Thorne suddenly started praising OBA because Alderson talked about it in an interview.

At some point, a GM will say something like, "We signed him as a free agent, because despite all the errors our probabilistic models show he turns lots of tough hits into outs." Then these models will start gaining acceptance.

Thanks to Nate for a link to the Probabilistic Mode of Range.

I just saw the highlight of Matt Treanor's double play last night. The ball was bunted, and Matt grabbed it out of the air and threw to second for the double play. Seems like a good time to recall this Treanor story.

The Diamondbacks get a two-run homer from Stephen Drew to take a 2-0 lead over the Marlins in the third.

Joe Christensen describes the fielding drill that helped Alexi Casilla make a spectacular play Wednesday night. It's one of the little things Ron Gardenhire works on to make the team better.

Pizza Cutter is doing some very good work on defense at MVN. I like the way he's trying to separate the ability to get to a ball from the ability to field the ball.

Jim Leyland adds another wrinkle to the Tigers defense. He's going to use Carlos Guillen in leftfield sometimes to get Inge games at third base:

Manager Jim Leyland said Saturday that Guillen probably will start in left field today against the Mariners.

Leyland had said after Friday night's game that he might use Guillen in left at least occasionally.

"This is how I can get (Guillen) in the lineup if I want to play (Brandon) Inge at third," Leyland said after Friday night's game.

To his credit, Guillen is game. He was signed as an outfielder but moved to the infield when he started in pro ball.

"I'm not afraid to play left," Guillen said. "You have to have confidence to play this game. You play this game with passion."

Ryan Langerhans is back with the Nationals and just made a possible game saving catch in San Diego. With the score tied at two in the bottom of the eighth, Kevin Kouzmanoff launches one to the stand in leftfield. Ryan leaped, got his glove over the railing, and pulled the ball back in to preserve the tie. He's also singled and driven in a run.

Update: The catch is for naught as Jody Gerut hits a three-run homer down the rightfield line for a 5-2 lead.

Nick Cafardo makes Dustin Pedroia the center of his piece on the Red Sox 5-3 win over the Mariners Monday night. He notes a defensive play in the third as a key moment in the game:

Take the play he made in the third inning of last night's 5-3 win over the Mariners: runners at first and second, two outs, when Jose Lopez hit a ball that for all intents and purposes should have gone through into right field for a run-producing hit. Yet Pedroia, who was positioned more toward second base, got a good jump on the ball and made a diving play to the first base side to retire Lopez and keep Bartolo Colon out of peril.

(Actually, there were runners at first and third.)

I saw the play last night and watched it again this morning. It was a nice play by Dustin, the kind that separates a good fielder from a bad one. It's an easy out if the fielder is positioned differently. Pedroia showed on that play what we normally consider range, the ability to cover a lot of ground to get to a ball.

When I run the Probabalistic Model of Range, I define range as the ability to turn a ball into an out. Positioning plays a large role in that. One would expect the players that can make up for being out of position on a ball with their ability to cover ground will tend to score higher in the rankings. Maybe when we get Joe Maddon's GPS system we'll know for sure.

I like the way Joe Maddon thinks about defense.

NESN is reporting that Varitek is the first catcher to receive four no hitters. They left Torborg off their graphic as catchers who caught three. Can anyone think of anyone else who caught four?

Add to that Schilling's near no-hitter last season, and Varitek's had quite the low-hit career.

Hank Blalock volunteered to move to first base when he comes off the disabled list:

"It's his decision," Texas manager Ron Washington said. "He said he had looked at the team and thought he could help the squad more at first. This is Hank just being a very intelligent baseball man,"

Blalock has played 686 career games at third base and none at first. Washington was giving Blalock some pointers during infield practice Sunday.

The Rangers are sending Blalock to extended spring training in Arizona on Monday. Washington said Blalock will probably stay in Arizona until he comes off the disabled list -- which may be as early as Friday.

"It's a new position for me and I'm not sure how I'll do," Blalock said. "I wouldn't have initiated it if it wasn't something I was excited about."

Blalock was hitting better this season before he tore the hamstring. Rangers this season have gotten a .602 OPS out of their first basemen coming into Sunday's games.

You don't see this too often. Kuroda strikes out Aybar, but the pitch is not caught cleanly. With a man on second and two out, Aybar starts running to first. The catcher, Bennett, throws the ball over the head of the first baseman down the leftfield line. Kotchman scores from second, and Aybar turns on the afterburner and reaches third base. A strikeout triple! The Angels take a 1-0 lead in the fourth.

Richard Durrett made the case this morning in the Dallas Morning News that the Rangers did what they needed to change themselves for the better, including defense:

The club that bobbled balls, missed cut-off men, made errant throws and beat itself to start the season has morphed into one that is putting together an impressive highlight reel of defensive plays, adding four more to the collection Tuesday.

And it isn't just the defense. These Rangers are manufacturing runs, running the bases smartly, delivering key hits, and, most important, pitching well. Consequently, they are winning games.

That's true, but everyonce in a while the wind shifts back to the old ways. A bobbled ground ball and a mis-read line drive lead to two innings in the seventh inning today, giving the Mariners a 3-2 lead. Scott Feldman pitched very well today, but the two unearned runs mean he's now in line for a loss.

Update: Hamilton makes up for the misplayed line drive with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game at three.

With men on first and third and two out in the top of the ninth, Franklin Gutierrez came up with the second great dive of the game. Mench hit a high liner into right center. It looked like it would drop to plate the first run of the game, but it hung up just long enough for Franklin to get over and make the diving catch. Two batters earlier, with a man on second, Rios hit a hard line drive snared by Victor Martinez at first. Lee completes nine scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 0.67. Now the Indians need to plate a run to get him a win.

Marcum is out of the game after eight innings. Ryan tries to preserve the tie.

Update: Ryan gets two popups as he retires the side in order. The game will be decided in extra innings. The Indians still have just two hits.

Update: Stewart breaks the scoreless tie in the tenth, and Hill follows with a two-run single to give Toronto a 3-0 lead.

Andrew Marshall writes:

Asdrubal Cabrera just turned an unassisted triple play behind Cliff Lee. This offense (Toronto) has become comically bad.

The Indians, of course, have the only unassisted triple play in World Series history, way back in 1920. This evening, the runners were going, Overbay hit a line drive that Asdrubal caught on a dive. The runners had already advanced a base, so Cabrera just had to tag the base and the runner from first to complete the TP. The game remains scoreless in the top of the sixth.

It must be tough to see pop ups in foul area on the third base side in Arizona. Mark Reynolds over-ran a ball near the stands earlier, and just now Schneider called off Wright, then lost the ball. The Mets lead 2-1 in the bottom of the fifth.

My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA.

Jim Leyland decided to switch Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen defensively. So now Miguel's followed the full Albert Pujols path.

There was plenty of praise for Chase Utley's glove last night:

With the bases loaded and one out and the Phillies trailing 3-0, second baseman Chase Utley launched himself parallel to the infield dirt and somehow managed to snag Clint Barmes' hard-hit chopper that seemed destined for centerfield. After landing flat on his torso, he raised his glove and shoveled the ball to shortstop Eric Bruntlett, who made a quick throw to first base for an inning-ending doubleplay.

"After the game, I told him 'Thank you,' " said righthander Kyle Kendrick, who pitched five innings and gave up all five Rockies runs on home runs by Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

Utley saved two runs, for sure.

Who knows how many may have followed?

"Bases loaded, it kind of slowed them down a little bit," Utley said. "A base hit there obviously would have hurt a lot."

Power and defense at second base is a rare combination. Morgan and Sandberg are the only two in my lifetime who did both extremely well. Utley was among the best second baseman in range as measured by PMR last season.

The Tigers broadcast pointed out something about the defensive alignment against Magglio Ordonez. The first baseman is playing way off the line, in what would usually be the hole between second and first. According to them, Ordonez hit a good many balls there last season, and few down the first base line. It's a good defensive adjustment so far, as they've kept Magglio's average down to .264.

When I was in college, my roommates and I used to kid that the threshold for an error was set too low. Our opinion was that if the greatest fielder at the position would have made the play, then it should go as an error.

With Kyle Lohse at the plate and the bases loaded, he slapped a ball to the left of Counsell at third. Counsell was in, he dove, but the ball went under his glove for a two-run single. Since Graig Nettles would have not only snagged the ball, but turned it into a double play, Counsell should really get an E5.. :-)

By the way, I love Brian Barton's socks. He's mixed a 50s uniform with a wild hairdo. The contrast looks great.

Alexei Ramirez starts in centerfield for the White Sox today and makes a spectacular throw to get Emil Brown. Brown hit a ball into the gap in right-center. Ramirez got to the hit in a hurry, grabbed the ball spun and threw a strike to second base without setting himself. Brown was out by a mile. Alexei showed off everything on that play; speed, soft hands, and an accurate and powerful arm. Look for that play on Web Gems tonight.

The game is scoreless in the second.

I don't think of Victor Martinez as a defensive catcher, but he just made a great play on Coco Crisp. Crisp laid a bunt down the third base line that died at the grass cut out in front of the plate. Martinez sprang like a cat on the ball threw off balance and got Crisp at first. He showed quickness and a strong, accurate arm on that play.

Soccer Dad notes the Orioles posted a .772 DER in their first seven games. They're like a black hole for balls in play.

Orlando Cabrera made a rare poor play for the White Sox. With a man on first, he ranged to his right for a ground ball off the bat of Polanco. Cabrera got there in time, but the ball skipped under his glove. He appeared to be looking for a higher bounce. The official scorer gave Polanco a hit, and a double play cleared the extra runner. The White Sox and Tigers are tied at five in the top of the fifth. Carlos Quentin hit his first home run for the pale hose.

Sox Machine notes the biggest threat to Jerry Owens's health after he returns to the White Sox.

The Soxaholix makes Kevin Youkilis the center of water cooler talk today for passing Steve Garvey for errorless games at first base. Keep in mind, however, that first basemen don't make a lot of errors in general. As for range, Kevin is a bit above average.

Kevin Youkilis can tie a fielding record tonight.

Emil Brown hits a ball to the warning track in straight away center than Ellsbury catches with a backward leap. He crashes into the wall but holds on to the ball. The NESN announcers are calling it a great catch, but I think he leaped too early. If he stays on his feet and keeps running I think he gets under the ball. Still, and out's and out, and it must be difficult playing under that white ceiling.

The A's go 1-2-3 in the eighth. The Sox have three outs to get one run. Lowell, Moss and Varitek are due up.

Giambi receives praise for his play at first this spring:

"The thing I've learned is that you have to change your training," Giambi said. "It stunk going through everything, but it all was a blessing in disguise. Even tearing my foot."

Giambi did much more sprint work this off-season and worked on explosive techniques that made him quicker on his feet.

"A few years ago I would have said there was no chance I'd be training like I am now," said Giambi, who was batting .406 this spring. Tino Martinez is surprised at how well Giambi is playing.

"He's actually moving around better than I thought," Martinez said. "I think he was feeling tentative in the past. The whole key is moving your feet but not being afraid to make a mistake. You don't want to hold the ball when you got an easy out at second and just get the guy at first. In the past he would do that. Now he's not afraid to go and get lead runners. That really helps the pitching staff."

We'll see long that lasts during the regular season. Having Giambi at first, however, gives the Yankees their best offensive team.

The Transaction Guy makes a good case for the Padres 2008 outfield defense hurting the pitching staff this season.

Via WasWatching, Joel Sherman joins the Jeter debate:

But what is being missed here is the preponderance of evidence against Jeter's defensive game. This is not just one set of Ivy League academics calling Jeter the majors' worst fielding shortstop. Just about every respected baseball statistician who has publicized results reveals Jeter is, at best, among the poorest defensive shortstops in the game.

You can attack methodology; you can say no perfect formula has yet been devised to encapsulate all the elements - positioning, speed of the hit ball, field conditions - into a single defensive statistic. However, these metrics keep evolving in sophistication. And Jeter keeps faring poorly in nearly every study year after year. Do you think there is a conspiracy? Do you think statisticians en masse have covertly met and made their quest to soil Jeter's glovely reputation?

"This study has been done a zillion times and the same conclusion is reached every time," an AL official said. "What do you think that means?"

For Jeter devotees, it means assailing the geeks. But as an AL executive said, "this isn't geeks vs. jocks. This is myth vs. reality." In reality, most baseball officials laugh off the three Gold Gloves Jeter won from 2004-06 in the way they do the four Bernie Williams won as having more to do with offense, fame and winning than with actual defense.

I'm very glad this debate is now fully out in the open. It's easy to dismiss one study, but when all of them point in the same direction, year after year, people start to notice. It looks like one of those people was indeed Jeter:

Perhaps the strongest condemnation came from Jeter, who said, "Last year, I didn't have a good year defensively."

It doesn't sound like much, especially since Jeter limited a serial inadequacy to just 2007. Except Jeter is not one to ever publicly apologize for, or criticize, his own game. But this is more than words with Jeter. He rededicated himself in the offseason with exercises designed to improve his lateral quickness and first-step explosiveness. One Yankee official saw this version of Jeter and said, "He set the clock back five years."

"I'm a lot quicker, a lot more agile," Jeter said. "Only time will tell, but that is what I worked on."

Actions speak louder than words.

Via WasWatching, Jeter says no to a position shift:

Many scouts believe Jeter would be able to make an easy transition to the outfield, where his speed, strong arm and terrific instincts would make him a natural. Asked about the possibility, Jeter waves off the question before it's finished.

"I ain't going out there," Jeter said. "It's not as easy as it sounds to just pick up a glove and say, 'I'm going to be an outfielder today.' It doesn't work like that."

As for his current position, Jeter feels he's a better shortstop now than he was during the early years of his career thanks to experience. By making the necessary adjustments on a regular basis, Jeter is constantly addressing what he feels are his strengths and weaknesses in the field. Just don't ask him what those are.

"I'll leave that to the computers to figure out," he said with a grin.

He doesn't move to his left or right well.

Via MLB FanHouse, Derek Jeter and Gene Michael talk about the shortstop's poor range:

"Maybe it was a computer glitch," the three-time Gold Glove winner said of the report. But Jeter just didn't laugh this one off. He defended himself, saying, "Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Jeter, 33, pointed out you can get the exact same ground ball off the exact same pitcher and there could be an average runner or there could be Ichiro running. "How can you compute that?" he asked.

You can't. That's one reason Yankees senior advisor Gene Michael was infuriated by the University of Pennsylvania report.

"Something like that is a disgrace," the scout said. "It made me ill when I read that article. First of all, what pitching staff was out there? Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls.

"You simply can't do that by those charts, that's a bunch of baloney," Michael added. "It's disgraceful. You have to use a scout's eye to determine range."

Of course, we do take most of those factors into account. For every Ichiro running to first, there's a Jason Giambi. Over time, those factors even out. As for the pitching staff, the Yankees have undergone numerous changes over the last few years, and somehow Derek stays at the bottom of the pack.

I'd also like to comment on one thing from the FanHouse post (emphasis added):

Baseball's different. It's very easy to watch Jeter fly deep in the hole, plant, pivot and gun a runner and come to the conclusion that he's a great fielder. It's a pretty play, full of athleticism and grace and that's more memorable than a grounder that finds a hole or a double play that doesn't get turned. That doesn't make it more important, though. These kinds of analysis help us understand baseball in its fullest context. That context, however, doesn't matter much when Jeter cuts off a poor throw, flips it to the plate and saves a run.

If Jeter actually planted and pivoted in the hole, I think his numbers would be better. What he actually does is stop, jump and throw, using only his arm to get the ball to first. His movement is more like a skater transferring kinetic energy from the horizontal to the vertical with a toe pick. None of that energy is being used to hurl the ball toward first base. I cringe every time he tries to make that play, because no matter how good it looks, it's the wrong way to throw. If he stopped, planted and used his whole body to send the ball across the diamond, he'd make a stronger and more accurate throw. How many times does that toss pull the first baseman off the bag or sail over his head? David Eckstein can make the plant and throw play, why can't the bigger and stronger Jeter?

Update: Tango's take.

Update: 100% Injury Rate chimes in. He points to some old data that shows Jeter wasn't the best fielding shortstop on his team, with the same pitching staff. The same things shows up in 2007 PMR. As a team, the Yankees shortstops produced 38 fewer outs than expected. Jeter, however, produced forty fewer outs than expected! So the replacements were a bit better.

One of the things to come out of the talk yesterday was that Troy Tulowitzki seemed to be covering for Garrett Atkins defensive woes. Tulowitzki produced 50 outs more than expected in 2007, while Atkins missed about 48 outs. You can see from their ground ball PMR graphs, that the difference happens in the hole:

Alan Schwarz, during the talk, wondered if this was more a reflection of strategy on the part of the Rockies as opposed a Garrett Atkins fielding deficiency. Apparently not.

Last spring, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had to take it. This year, as a rich, budding star, he's dishing it out.

Saturday, Tulo's target was third baseman Garrett Atkins.

"Atkins doesn't do much over there," Tulowitzki said with a sly grin. "He kind of just stands there and watches balls."

Tulowitzki was kidding, but there's a element of truth there. Note that the Rockies didn't lock up Atkins long term.

Hat tip, Purple Row.

One criticism leveled at the Probabilistic Model of Range this year is that due to building the models based on the visiting team fielders, teams with good offenses get a bonus defensively. The example given is the Yankees, but there are other high offense teams ranked high in terms of PMR.

The idea is that since the Yankees hit well, their opponents DER must by definition be low. A ball put in play by the Yankees must have a lower probability of being turned into an out. This causes the model to underestimate the fielding ability of opponents, and over estimate the fielding ability of the Yankees. If the model contained one parameter, ballpark, then this would be absolutely true. However, there are six parameters, including a vector indicating the direction of the ball. I propose that the Yankees hit better than their opponents not because a random ball in play has a higher probability of falling for a hit, but because the Yankees do a better job of hitting balls where they are tough to field.

The following table shows the number of ground balls hit by the Yankees and their opponents by vector:

Vector	Yankees	Opponents	Predicted DER
25	4	4	0.000
26	12	14	0.000
27	37	26	0.766
28	118	57	0.898
29	175	118	0.706
30	193	156	0.671
31	148	119	0.844
32	111	82	0.934
33	164	136	0.868
34	114	105	0.585
35	100	74	0.535
36	117	124	0.624
37	101	108	0.617
38	116	150	0.838
39	119	131	0.865
40	163	139	0.764
41	165	174	0.550
42	110	130	0.688
43	61	55	0.847
44	35	40	0.572
45	7	13	0.010
46	5	5	0.000

As you can see, the low probability vectors are 29-30, the shortstop hole, 34-37, up the middle, 41-42, the second base hole, and 44, right down the first base line. I'm not looking at the foul vectors where a ball is always a hit. Breaking these down:

Ground balls	Yankees	Opponents
In Holes	1110	1029
At Fielders	882	895

So the Yankees hit more grounders where they are less likely to be fielded, and fewer grounders where they are more likely to be fielded than their opponents. Later I want to look at how the Yankees field home and road. If they field much better at home, then the objection still my have some validity.

To complete the survery of range, here are how pitchers rank. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Astros	4530	205	183.71	0.045	0.041	111.59
Padres	4476	243	228.50	0.054	0.051	106.35
Rockies	4599	218	206.59	0.047	0.045	105.52
Indians	4548	181	171.92	0.040	0.038	105.28
Mets	4362	173	164.61	0.040	0.038	105.09
White Sox	4545	196	186.52	0.043	0.041	105.08
Yankees	4511	181	172.92	0.040	0.038	104.67
Tigers	4486	167	159.73	0.037	0.036	104.55
Red Sox	4226	149	142.79	0.035	0.034	104.35
Mariners	4535	174	167.33	0.038	0.037	103.99
Blue Jays	4349	200	194.00	0.046	0.045	103.09
Phillies	4505	193	187.33	0.043	0.042	103.02
Pirates	4608	204	200.82	0.044	0.044	101.58
Cubs	4177	166	163.95	0.040	0.039	101.25
Rangers	4518	197	195.59	0.044	0.043	100.72
Braves	4404	206	204.60	0.047	0.046	100.69
Devil Rays	4378	148	147.07	0.034	0.034	100.63
Twins	4384	150	152.30	0.034	0.035	98.49
Orioles	4403	160	162.54	0.036	0.037	98.44
Nationals	4591	167	170.78	0.036	0.037	97.78
Marlins	4491	178	182.52	0.040	0.041	97.52
Angels	4325	143	146.86	0.033	0.034	97.37
Giants	4467	159	163.87	0.036	0.037	97.03
Diamondbacks	4351	207	213.40	0.048	0.049	97.00
Cardinals	4587	158	166.21	0.034	0.036	95.06
Athletics	4499	165	174.70	0.037	0.039	94.45
Brewers	4392	179	192.64	0.041	0.044	92.92
Dodgers	4310	189	205.96	0.044	0.048	91.76
Reds	4533	162	180.13	0.036	0.040	89.93
Royals	4528	151	179.20	0.033	0.040	84.27

The Padres not only induce the most predicted outs back to the pitcher, they exceed those outs by a great deal. Maddux is one reason:

Individual Pitcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (400 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chris Sampson	414	24	15.23	0.058	0.037	157.55
Matt Cain	571	26	19.79	0.046	0.035	131.37
Chad Durbin	417	15	11.48	0.036	0.028	130.65
Shaun Marcum	456	27	20.71	0.059	0.045	130.37
Steve Trachsel	549	35	26.89	0.064	0.049	130.17
Mike Mussina	512	27	20.84	0.053	0.041	129.54
Woody Williams	632	36	27.90	0.057	0.044	129.04
Aaron Cook	572	37	28.69	0.065	0.050	128.98
Miguel Batista	615	26	20.17	0.042	0.033	128.92
Jon Garland	705	34	26.84	0.048	0.038	126.66
Kelvim Escobar	572	17	13.58	0.030	0.024	125.21
Wandy Rodriguez	536	21	16.87	0.039	0.031	124.46
Greg Maddux	681	53	42.87	0.078	0.063	123.64
Ervin Santana	457	13	10.59	0.028	0.023	122.72
Jake Peavy	571	30	24.58	0.053	0.043	122.03
Brandon Webb	692	53	43.55	0.077	0.063	121.69
Mike Bacsik	414	15	12.35	0.036	0.030	121.42
Tim Wakefield	600	24	19.83	0.040	0.033	121.05
Carlos Zambrano	610	30	25.00	0.049	0.041	119.98
Javier Vazquez	583	28	23.46	0.048	0.040	119.34
Adam Eaton	525	22	18.49	0.042	0.035	119.00
Nate Robertson	573	27	22.77	0.047	0.040	118.56
John Danks	427	15	12.83	0.035	0.030	116.94
James Shields	615	26	22.26	0.042	0.036	116.80
Justin Verlander	577	17	14.69	0.029	0.025	115.76
Chien-Ming Wang	643	34	29.61	0.053	0.046	114.84
Carlos Silva	699	27	23.54	0.039	0.034	114.70
John Smoltz	586	30	26.16	0.051	0.045	114.69
Dustin McGowan	484	31	27.18	0.064	0.056	114.04
Justin Germano	426	21	18.42	0.049	0.043	114.04
Ted Lilly	586	24	21.09	0.041	0.036	113.81
Dontrelle Willis	667	39	34.32	0.058	0.051	113.64
Kyle Davies	432	16	14.08	0.037	0.033	113.60
Sergio Mitre	522	29	25.58	0.056	0.049	113.35
Daisuke Matsuzaka	555	24	21.21	0.043	0.038	113.18
Joe Blanton	750	28	25.10	0.037	0.033	111.54
Jake Westbrook	481	27	24.51	0.056	0.051	110.17
Andy Sonnanstine	408	14	12.81	0.034	0.031	109.28
Matt Chico	548	16	14.77	0.029	0.027	108.33
Jamie Moyer	633	30	27.83	0.047	0.044	107.81
Johan Santana	555	24	22.27	0.043	0.040	107.75
Tom Glavine	674	27	25.15	0.040	0.037	107.37
C.C. Sabathia	701	24	22.47	0.034	0.032	106.80
Brett Tomko	415	16	14.99	0.039	0.036	106.77
Jarrod Washburn	627	20	18.81	0.032	0.030	106.33
Noah Lowry	502	23	21.69	0.046	0.043	106.02
Jeremy Guthrie	527	21	19.85	0.040	0.038	105.81
Chris Capuano	456	28	26.47	0.061	0.058	105.77
Fausto Carmona	654	36	34.14	0.055	0.052	105.43
Roy Halladay	722	36	34.31	0.050	0.048	104.94
Mark Buehrle	648	33	31.47	0.051	0.049	104.86
Bronson Arroyo	661	27	25.79	0.041	0.039	104.71
David Bush	594	24	23.12	0.040	0.039	103.80
Kyle Kendrick	401	20	19.29	0.050	0.048	103.69
David Wells	545	20	19.32	0.037	0.035	103.52
Erik Bedard	431	17	16.46	0.039	0.038	103.29
Jeff Suppan	708	34	32.99	0.048	0.047	103.05
Barry Zito	608	21	20.40	0.035	0.034	102.94
Jason Marquis	626	25	24.34	0.040	0.039	102.70
Jeff Francis	662	30	29.40	0.045	0.044	102.04
Kameron Loe	464	28	27.74	0.060	0.060	100.93
Livan Hernandez	704	38	37.71	0.054	0.054	100.78
Paul Maholm	583	30	29.99	0.051	0.051	100.02
Matt Morris	693	28	28.14	0.040	0.041	99.50
Kip Wells	522	20	20.10	0.038	0.039	99.48
Ian Snell	606	20	20.14	0.033	0.033	99.33
Odalis Perez	494	18	18.33	0.036	0.037	98.20
John Maine	527	17	17.37	0.032	0.033	97.86
Cole Hamels	495	23	23.78	0.046	0.048	96.70
Chad Gaudin	603	21	21.76	0.035	0.036	96.51
A.J. Burnett	414	15	15.67	0.036	0.038	95.73
Mike Maroth	417	17	17.85	0.041	0.043	95.22
Tim Hudson	722	41	43.25	0.057	0.060	94.81
Felix Hernandez	567	26	27.45	0.046	0.048	94.73
Jered Weaver	514	18	19.04	0.035	0.037	94.51
Brian Bannister	540	20	21.19	0.037	0.039	94.40
Oliver Perez	483	11	11.65	0.023	0.024	94.40
Micah Owings	461	22	23.32	0.048	0.051	94.34
Kyle Lohse	615	22	23.48	0.036	0.038	93.71
Jeff Weaver	511	10	10.72	0.020	0.021	93.32
Chuck James	484	15	16.10	0.031	0.033	93.18
Tom Gorzelanny	642	24	25.76	0.037	0.040	93.18
Roy Oswalt	675	36	38.80	0.053	0.057	92.79
Adam Wainwright	654	28	30.29	0.043	0.046	92.44
Jose Contreras	647	22	23.80	0.034	0.037	92.43
Scott Kazmir	534	16	17.46	0.030	0.033	91.64
Lenny DiNardo	430	15	16.48	0.035	0.038	91.04
Derek Lowe	604	27	29.69	0.045	0.049	90.95
Andy Pettitte	690	26	28.59	0.038	0.041	90.93
Paul Byrd	686	21	23.15	0.031	0.034	90.72
Aaron Harang	642	23	25.44	0.036	0.040	90.42
Doug Davis	597	32	36.17	0.054	0.061	88.47
Scott Olsen	578	21	23.75	0.036	0.041	88.41
Josh Fogg	556	21	23.79	0.038	0.043	88.26
Scott Baker	454	13	14.84	0.029	0.033	87.58
Rich Hill	527	21	23.98	0.040	0.046	87.57
Brad Penny	643	25	28.93	0.039	0.045	86.41
Kevin Millwood	571	16	18.75	0.028	0.033	85.32
John Lackey	668	24	28.71	0.036	0.043	83.60
Braden Looper	581	19	23.06	0.033	0.040	82.41
Chad Billingsley	400	17	20.94	0.043	0.052	81.18
Josh Beckett	566	11	13.68	0.019	0.024	80.41
Vicente Padilla	407	12	15.11	0.029	0.037	79.44
Chris Young	448	11	14.27	0.025	0.032	77.08
Claudio Vargas	419	14	18.20	0.033	0.043	76.91
Edwin Jackson	516	12	15.91	0.023	0.031	75.43
Jeremy Bonderman	533	14	18.78	0.026	0.035	74.53
Boof Bonser	539	14	18.92	0.026	0.035	74.00
Jorge de la Rosa	431	11	15.32	0.026	0.036	71.79
Gil Meche	663	20	28.05	0.030	0.042	71.31
Julian Tavarez	455	11	15.86	0.024	0.035	69.38
Brad Thompson	451	10	14.58	0.022	0.032	68.61
Matt Belisle	570	15	22.66	0.026	0.040	66.18
Dan Haren	661	17	26.01	0.026	0.039	65.36
Daniel Cabrera	608	13	20.82	0.021	0.034	62.44
Ben Sheets	431	11	19.19	0.026	0.045	57.31
Curt Schilling	485	7	12.87	0.014	0.027	54.40

Peavy is also very good, however. Looking at Schilling's low ranking should give his opponents a clue as to his weakness next season. Bunting for hits against Curt might be a very good idea.

Fielding by catchers isn't the most important aspect of the job, and the number of outs attributed to the postion are few. But for completeness, here are the tables for the position. First, teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4587	57	47.59	0.012	0.010	119.76
Braves	4404	64	55.33	0.015	0.013	115.67
Rockies	4599	76	66.39	0.017	0.014	114.48
Yankees	4511	66	59.51	0.015	0.013	110.90
Dodgers	4310	68	62.43	0.016	0.014	108.91
Angels	4325	39	35.96	0.009	0.008	108.47
Marlins	4491	57	53.73	0.013	0.012	106.09
Nationals	4591	60	57.21	0.013	0.012	104.87
Astros	4530	58	55.59	0.013	0.012	104.33
Tigers	4486	50	47.96	0.011	0.011	104.25
White Sox	4545	50	49.10	0.011	0.011	101.82
Giants	4467	58	57.06	0.013	0.013	101.64
Cubs	4177	51	50.42	0.012	0.012	101.15
Reds	4533	74	73.68	0.016	0.016	100.44
Blue Jays	4349	50	49.79	0.011	0.011	100.42
Royals	4528	46	45.90	0.010	0.010	100.22
Rangers	4518	48	48.05	0.011	0.011	99.90
Red Sox	4226	49	49.56	0.012	0.012	98.88
Devil Rays	4378	41	41.89	0.009	0.010	97.88
Indians	4548	36	37.23	0.008	0.008	96.70
Diamondbacks	4351	50	51.94	0.011	0.012	96.26
Padres	4476	59	61.48	0.013	0.014	95.97
Orioles	4403	37	38.96	0.008	0.009	94.97
Mariners	4535	42	44.86	0.009	0.010	93.63
Pirates	4608	51	54.75	0.011	0.012	93.15
Phillies	4505	56	60.25	0.012	0.013	92.95
Twins	4384	30	32.50	0.007	0.007	92.32
Athletics	4499	37	41.10	0.008	0.009	90.03
Mets	4362	50	56.67	0.011	0.013	88.22
Brewers	4392	51	59.91	0.012	0.014	85.13

The Mets are Brewers, who just completed a trade at the position, came out at the bottom team wise. New York might have been better off with Torrealba, at least fielding wise.

Individual Catcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Yadier Molina	2719	32	26.82	0.012	0.010	119.33
Brian McCann	3433	52	43.65	0.015	0.013	119.14
Yorvit Torrealba	2863	54	45.73	0.019	0.016	118.07
Miguel Olivo	3131	44	37.90	0.014	0.012	116.11
Jorge Posada	3484	50	43.52	0.014	0.012	114.90
Eric Munson	1012	17	15.02	0.017	0.015	113.21
Jeff Mathis	1421	21	18.96	0.015	0.013	110.78
Jose Molina	1431	16	14.52	0.011	0.010	110.18
Kelly Shoppach	1365	14	12.72	0.010	0.009	110.07
Gerald Laird	3118	37	33.82	0.012	0.011	109.40
Russell Martin	3687	60	55.76	0.016	0.015	107.60
Gregg Zaun	2559	32	29.91	0.013	0.012	106.98
Brad Ausmus	2728	33	31.07	0.012	0.011	106.22
Chris Iannetta	1613	20	18.83	0.012	0.012	106.20
Toby Hall	1002	10	9.45	0.010	0.009	105.82
Gary Bennett	1223	15	14.18	0.012	0.012	105.75
Jesus Flores	1258	21	19.87	0.017	0.016	105.69
Ivan Rodriguez	3216	41	38.98	0.013	0.012	105.19
John Buck	2879	30	28.52	0.010	0.010	105.18
Brian Schneider	3333	39	37.34	0.012	0.011	104.43
Mike Napoli	1814	12	11.53	0.007	0.006	104.09
Miguel Montero	1629	20	19.57	0.012	0.012	102.20
Javier Valentin	1494	20	19.72	0.013	0.013	101.42
Bengie Molina	3389	42	41.51	0.012	0.012	101.17
Mike Rabelo	1270	9	8.99	0.007	0.007	100.16
Dave Ross	2603	46	46.32	0.018	0.018	99.32
A.J. Pierzynski	3270	37	37.40	0.011	0.011	98.92
Ronny Paulino	3423	40	40.81	0.012	0.012	98.02
Michael Barrett	2291	33	33.76	0.014	0.015	97.74
Ramon Hernandez	2617	24	24.82	0.009	0.009	96.71
Josh Bard	2761	38	39.31	0.014	0.014	96.67
Mike Redmond	1461	11	11.42	0.008	0.008	96.30
Kurt Suzuki	1696	14	14.61	0.008	0.009	95.82
Paul Lo Duca	2922	33	34.63	0.011	0.012	95.29
Dioner Navarro	2901	25	26.29	0.009	0.009	95.09
Jason LaRue	1537	16	16.89	0.010	0.011	94.72
Jason Kendall	3448	31	32.85	0.009	0.010	94.37
Carlos Ruiz	2802	44	46.89	0.016	0.017	93.83
Jason Varitek	3061	33	35.49	0.011	0.012	92.99
Chris Snyder	2611	26	28.37	0.010	0.011	91.64
Johnny Estrada	2922	36	39.51	0.012	0.014	91.12
Kenji Johjima	3548	32	35.22	0.009	0.010	90.85
Rob Bowen	1268	11	12.14	0.009	0.010	90.59
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	1201	11	12.25	0.009	0.010	89.78
Victor Martinez	3183	22	24.51	0.007	0.008	89.76
Joe Mauer	2331	16	18.22	0.007	0.008	87.83
Paul Bako	1290	8	9.42	0.006	0.007	84.90
Matt Treanor	1317	13	15.83	0.010	0.012	82.12
Jason Phillips	1025	7	8.88	0.007	0.009	78.82
Damian Miller	1367	13	17.73	0.010	0.013	73.30

Two of the old men, Posada and Ivan Rodriguez, are still cat like behind the plate.

Here's a look at the range of first basemen. First, the team table. The Yankees at least did a good job of improving their defense at the position:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4587	366	329.22	0.080	0.072	111.17
Yankees	4511	314	285.78	0.070	0.063	109.87
Giants	4467	325	304.72	0.073	0.068	106.66
Royals	4528	315	296.64	0.070	0.066	106.19
Padres	4476	311	295.59	0.069	0.066	105.21
Cubs	4177	283	269.44	0.068	0.065	105.03
Braves	4404	320	306.86	0.073	0.070	104.28
Angels	4325	308	296.32	0.071	0.069	103.94
Pirates	4608	315	304.66	0.068	0.066	103.39
Rockies	4599	336	326.21	0.073	0.071	103.00
Astros	4530	335	328.42	0.074	0.072	102.00
Red Sox	4226	323	321.65	0.076	0.076	100.42
Brewers	4392	294	293.80	0.067	0.067	100.07
Diamondbacks	4351	292	292.06	0.067	0.067	99.98
Devil Rays	4378	316	317.18	0.072	0.072	99.63
Blue Jays	4349	337	339.17	0.077	0.078	99.36
Orioles	4403	273	277.29	0.062	0.063	98.45
Athletics	4499	303	310.84	0.067	0.069	97.48
Dodgers	4310	285	293.60	0.066	0.068	97.07
Mariners	4535	297	308.37	0.065	0.068	96.31
Mets	4362	285	296.03	0.065	0.068	96.27
White Sox	4545	309	321.66	0.068	0.071	96.06
Indians	4548	295	307.96	0.065	0.068	95.79
Tigers	4486	296	310.16	0.066	0.069	95.44
Rangers	4518	283	297.18	0.063	0.066	95.23
Phillies	4505	302	317.82	0.067	0.071	95.02
Marlins	4491	291	307.52	0.065	0.068	94.63
Twins	4384	311	337.63	0.071	0.077	92.11
Reds	4533	263	290.87	0.058	0.064	90.42
Nationals	4591	270	299.99	0.059	0.065	90.00

It looks like the Nationals missed Nick Johnson's glove at first base. It's even more evident in the individual listing:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Doug Mientkiewicz	1427	109	92.24	0.076	0.065	118.17
Rich Aurilia	1115	70	59.31	0.063	0.053	118.02
Andy Phillips	1325	93	80.91	0.070	0.061	114.95
Albert Pujols	4220	349	308.82	0.083	0.073	113.01
Ryan Shealy	1336	88	78.66	0.066	0.059	111.87
Derrek Lee	3691	254	239.65	0.069	0.065	105.99
Casey Kotchman	3085	225	214.03	0.073	0.069	105.12
Adrian Gonzalez	4401	307	292.23	0.070	0.066	105.06
Tony Clark	1345	98	93.58	0.073	0.070	104.72
Scott Thorman	1859	126	120.75	0.068	0.065	104.35
Todd Helton	4170	306	293.61	0.073	0.070	104.22
Ryan Klesko	2504	190	183.08	0.076	0.073	103.78
Ben Broussard	1057	72	69.60	0.068	0.066	103.45
James Loney	2355	168	162.45	0.071	0.069	103.42
Ross Gload	2169	153	148.21	0.071	0.068	103.23
Carlos Pena	3708	277	268.41	0.075	0.072	103.20
Adam LaRoche	4141	283	274.52	0.068	0.066	103.09
Nick Swisher	1075	91	88.68	0.085	0.082	102.61
Kevin Youkilis	3208	253	249.42	0.079	0.078	101.44
Matt Stairs	1024	86	85.07	0.084	0.083	101.10
Lance Berkman	3315	229	229.22	0.069	0.069	99.91
Lyle Overbay	2887	221	221.32	0.077	0.077	99.86
Prince Fielder	4073	266	271.21	0.065	0.067	98.08
Conor Jackson	2647	173	176.80	0.065	0.067	97.85
Mark Teixeira	3404	240	246.41	0.071	0.072	97.40
Carlos Delgado	3649	244	251.39	0.067	0.069	97.06
Kevin Millar	2666	171	176.83	0.064	0.066	96.70
Robert Fick	1221	80	82.79	0.066	0.068	96.64
Aubrey Huff	1295	67	69.45	0.052	0.054	96.47
Ryan Howard	3871	263	274.29	0.068	0.071	95.88
Paul Konerko	3864	256	267.48	0.066	0.069	95.71
Richie Sexson	3137	201	210.24	0.064	0.067	95.61
Aaron Boone	1219	85	89.73	0.070	0.074	94.72
Brad Wilkerson	1444	82	86.94	0.057	0.060	94.32
Ryan Garko	3271	209	223.33	0.064	0.068	93.58
Sean Casey	3100	198	211.63	0.064	0.068	93.56
Dan Johnson	2679	166	177.43	0.062	0.066	93.56
Justin Morneau	3872	281	302.07	0.073	0.078	93.02
Mike Jacobs	2821	170	183.72	0.060	0.065	92.53
Jeff Conine	1595	86	94.78	0.054	0.059	90.74
Scott Hatteberg	2457	144	160.66	0.059	0.065	89.63
Nomar Garciaparra	1678	106	118.73	0.063	0.071	89.28
Dmitri Young	2808	162	184.81	0.058	0.066	87.66

Once again, Albert Pujols comes out on top among every day first basemen. If the Yankees had kept Miguel Cairo off first, they might have finished first as a team. Not only did Nomar not hit like a first baseman, he didn't even field well.

Correction: Cairo, not Cabrera.

Here's something the Orioles excelled at during 2007, fielding by leftfielders:

Team Leftfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Orioles	4403	362	343.61	0.082	0.078	105.35
Indians	4548	339	325.23	0.075	0.072	104.23
Braves	4404	316	306.69	0.072	0.070	103.04
Rangers	4518	337	327.32	0.075	0.072	102.96
Nationals	4591	352	341.94	0.077	0.074	102.94
Yankees	4511	334	324.93	0.074	0.072	102.79
Brewers	4392	322	314.81	0.073	0.072	102.28
Mets	4362	324	317.91	0.074	0.073	101.91
Padres	4476	310	305.07	0.069	0.068	101.62
Royals	4528	373	367.39	0.082	0.081	101.53
Devil Rays	4378	339	334.26	0.077	0.076	101.42
Cubs	4177	341	337.65	0.082	0.081	100.99
Diamondbacks	4351	349	345.83	0.080	0.079	100.92
Blue Jays	4349	294	292.63	0.068	0.067	100.47
Dodgers	4310	288	287.78	0.067	0.067	100.08
Angels	4325	340	341.60	0.079	0.079	99.53
Giants	4467	314	317.61	0.070	0.071	98.86
Tigers	4486	327	331.60	0.073	0.074	98.61
Marlins	4491	274	278.60	0.061	0.062	98.35
Astros	4530	285	290.69	0.063	0.064	98.04
Athletics	4499	337	344.34	0.075	0.077	97.87
White Sox	4545	318	325.73	0.070	0.072	97.63
Pirates	4608	303	310.81	0.066	0.067	97.49
Rockies	4599	317	326.69	0.069	0.071	97.03
Reds	4533	326	336.27	0.072	0.074	96.95
Twins	4384	334	345.60	0.076	0.079	96.64
Phillies	4505	282	295.91	0.063	0.066	95.30
Red Sox	4226	284	299.24	0.067	0.071	94.91
Cardinals	4587	320	346.16	0.070	0.075	92.44
Mariners	4535	288	315.31	0.064	0.070	91.34

Among individuals, Matt Diaz had a career year with the glove as well as the bat.

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Matt Diaz	2064	155	142.05	0.075	0.069	109.11
Jose Cruz	1099	89	82.33	0.081	0.075	108.10
Joey Gathright	1595	154	142.69	0.097	0.089	107.93
Jay Payton	2776	231	214.85	0.083	0.077	107.52
David Dellucci	1210	97	91.32	0.080	0.075	106.22
Scott Hairston	1689	115	108.48	0.068	0.064	106.01
Wily Mo Pena	1126	68	64.97	0.060	0.058	104.66
Ryan Church	2304	196	188.59	0.085	0.082	103.93
Geoff Jenkins	2985	243	234.55	0.081	0.079	103.60
Carl Crawford	3623	286	276.65	0.079	0.076	103.38
Hideki Matsui	3091	214	207.16	0.069	0.067	103.30
Adam Lind	1969	137	132.73	0.070	0.067	103.22
Jason Michaels	1567	117	113.59	0.075	0.072	103.00
Reggie Willits	1557	151	146.83	0.097	0.094	102.84
Reed Johnson	1518	108	105.47	0.071	0.069	102.40
Emil Brown	1909	155	153.22	0.081	0.080	101.16
Eric Byrnes	2924	239	236.90	0.082	0.081	100.89
Alfonso Soriano	3074	245	243.79	0.080	0.079	100.50
Rob Mackowiak	1468	98	97.52	0.067	0.066	100.49
Kenny Lofton	1189	82	82.28	0.069	0.069	99.66
Willie Harris	1873	138	139.21	0.074	0.074	99.13
Ryan Ludwick	1011	86	86.83	0.085	0.086	99.04
Frank Catalanotto	1540	98	99.82	0.064	0.065	98.18
Jason Bay	3974	266	271.62	0.067	0.068	97.93
Luis Gonzalez	3008	192	196.31	0.064	0.065	97.81
Matt Holliday	4331	296	303.68	0.068	0.070	97.47
Carlos Lee	4244	261	268.68	0.061	0.063	97.14
Moises Alou	2105	138	142.80	0.066	0.068	96.64
Shannon Stewart	3606	277	287.12	0.077	0.080	96.47
Kevin Mench	1139	55	57.41	0.048	0.050	95.81
Craig Monroe	2512	166	174.76	0.066	0.070	94.99
Garret Anderson	2169	143	150.84	0.066	0.070	94.81
Scott Podsednik	1421	108	114.15	0.076	0.080	94.61
Josh Willingham	3653	211	223.26	0.058	0.061	94.51
Adam Dunn	3691	245	259.98	0.066	0.070	94.24
Terrmel Sledge	1192	77	82.16	0.065	0.069	93.72
Barry Bonds	2588	162	173.93	0.063	0.067	93.14
Jason Kubel	2153	159	172.31	0.074	0.080	92.27
Raul Ibanez	3559	224	243.95	0.063	0.069	91.82
Manny Ramirez	2925	182	198.85	0.062	0.068	91.53
Chris Duncan	2437	158	175.74	0.065	0.072	89.90
Pat Burrell	3176	176	198.31	0.055	0.062	88.75

There's no real surprises at the bottom of the list. Bonds, however, fell off quite a bit. He was average in 2006, but well below average in 2007. You can also see that there are few regular leftfielders. Only twelve players on the list were on the field at that position for at least 3000 balls in play.

The following table presents probabilistic model of range data for team rightfielders:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Phillies	4505	363	328.75	0.081	0.073	110.42
Rangers	4518	341	317.30	0.075	0.070	107.47
Yankees	4511	341	328.36	0.076	0.073	103.85
Royals	4528	410	397.12	0.091	0.088	103.24
Nationals	4591	392	381.19	0.085	0.083	102.84
Indians	4548	313	304.41	0.069	0.067	102.82
Marlins	4491	379	368.66	0.084	0.082	102.81
Astros	4530	360	354.55	0.079	0.078	101.54
Brewers	4392	393	387.42	0.089	0.088	101.44
Diamondbacks	4351	336	331.82	0.077	0.076	101.26
Athletics	4499	330	327.02	0.073	0.073	100.91
Blue Jays	4349	281	278.50	0.065	0.064	100.90
Cubs	4177	303	301.51	0.073	0.072	100.50
Angels	4325	311	310.00	0.072	0.072	100.32
Padres	4476	331	331.59	0.074	0.074	99.82
Twins	4384	306	307.17	0.070	0.070	99.62
Tigers	4486	318	319.88	0.071	0.071	99.41
Red Sox	4226	287	289.46	0.068	0.068	99.15
Mets	4362	340	343.80	0.078	0.079	98.89
Orioles	4403	314	317.86	0.071	0.072	98.79
Braves	4404	331	336.45	0.075	0.076	98.38
Devil Rays	4378	309	314.27	0.071	0.072	98.32
Reds	4533	377	384.09	0.083	0.085	98.15
Pirates	4608	312	319.06	0.068	0.069	97.79
Cardinals	4587	316	323.36	0.069	0.070	97.72
White Sox	4545	345	354.49	0.076	0.078	97.32
Dodgers	4310	317	326.76	0.074	0.076	97.01
Giants	4467	338	349.14	0.076	0.078	96.81
Mariners	4535	305	323.57	0.067	0.071	94.26
Rockies	4599	296	316.91	0.064	0.069	93.40

As shown below, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino made quite the dynamic duo in rightfield for the Phillies. My uncle Anthony will not be happy with this list, however. He's a Yankees season ticket holder and he loves to tell me how much Bobby Abreu is afraid of the wall. It looks like he's still getting to lots of balls.

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Jayson Werth	1389	109	95.35	0.078	0.069	114.32
Shane Victorino	2837	229	210.62	0.081	0.074	108.72
Nick Swisher	1289	109	101.65	0.085	0.079	107.23
Carlos Quentin	1718	138	129.11	0.080	0.075	106.89
Franklin Gutierrez	1757	136	128.55	0.077	0.073	105.79
Nelson Cruz	1922	148	141.26	0.077	0.073	104.77
Luke Scott	2560	198	190.34	0.077	0.074	104.02
Bobby Abreu	4148	313	302.45	0.075	0.073	103.49
Corey Hart	2641	253	246.33	0.096	0.093	102.71
Austin Kearns	4356	375	366.16	0.086	0.084	102.41
Mark Teahen	3663	318	311.33	0.087	0.085	102.14
Alex Rios	3730	243	240.17	0.065	0.064	101.18
Travis Buck	1561	110	109.03	0.070	0.070	100.89
Jeremy Hermida	3035	247	245.88	0.081	0.081	100.46
Randy Winn	2686	209	208.12	0.078	0.077	100.42
Delmon Young	3463	252	251.16	0.073	0.073	100.33
Trot Nixon	2140	129	129.17	0.060	0.060	99.86
Michael Cuddyer	3749	256	256.95	0.068	0.069	99.63
Nick Markakis	4279	303	306.74	0.071	0.072	98.78
Magglio Ordonez	3835	261	264.54	0.068	0.069	98.66
Jeff Francoeur	4356	328	333.45	0.075	0.077	98.37
Jermaine Dye	3682	284	289.80	0.077	0.079	98.00
Shawn Green	2771	203	207.55	0.073	0.075	97.81
Vladimir Guerrero	2819	208	213.12	0.074	0.076	97.60
Matt Kemp	1851	129	132.50	0.070	0.072	97.36
Brian Giles	3199	216	223.54	0.068	0.070	96.63
J.D. Drew	3128	212	219.98	0.068	0.070	96.37
Ken Griffey Jr.	3649	291	302.61	0.080	0.083	96.16
Andre Ethier	2315	177	184.39	0.076	0.080	95.99
Xavier Nady	2390	162	168.97	0.068	0.071	95.88
Jose Guillen	4063	268	284.73	0.066	0.070	94.13
Juan Encarnacion	1983	125	132.90	0.063	0.067	94.06
Jack Cust	1205	79	84.93	0.066	0.070	93.01
Brad Hawpe	3851	247	267.07	0.064	0.069	92.48
Cliff Floyd	1185	69	78.30	0.058	0.066	88.12

Mark Teahen did a much better job of adjusting to rightfield than Ken Griffey, Jr. Of course, Junior is old and slow, and with all the injuries might be better off as a DH in AL at this point.

The Washington Nationals and Ryan Zimmerman lead the way at third base.

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Nationals	4591	448	403.22	0.098	0.088	111.11
Cubs	4177	433	400.61	0.104	0.096	108.09
Giants	4467	434	404.44	0.097	0.091	107.31
Mets	4362	415	390.52	0.095	0.090	106.27
Red Sox	4226	377	356.44	0.089	0.084	105.77
Tigers	4486	446	426.09	0.099	0.095	104.67
Yankees	4511	370	354.08	0.082	0.078	104.50
Orioles	4403	423	406.97	0.096	0.092	103.94
Mariners	4535	423	407.60	0.093	0.090	103.78
Angels	4325	341	329.04	0.079	0.076	103.64
Cardinals	4587	468	459.66	0.102	0.100	101.81
Rangers	4518	385	378.51	0.085	0.084	101.72
Blue Jays	4349	376	371.58	0.086	0.085	101.19
Dodgers	4310	380	376.79	0.088	0.087	100.85
Braves	4404	364	364.35	0.083	0.083	99.90
Brewers	4392	369	371.77	0.084	0.085	99.26
Athletics	4499	399	405.18	0.089	0.090	98.47
Padres	4476	376	382.21	0.084	0.085	98.37
Astros	4530	401	409.30	0.089	0.090	97.97
Phillies	4505	433	442.07	0.096	0.098	97.95
Reds	4533	398	406.34	0.088	0.090	97.95
Royals	4528	378	387.55	0.083	0.086	97.54
Devil Rays	4378	361	370.39	0.082	0.085	97.46
White Sox	4545	426	438.55	0.094	0.096	97.14
Twins	4384	393	405.89	0.090	0.093	96.82
Pirates	4608	450	470.32	0.098	0.102	95.68
Indians	4548	400	421.84	0.088	0.093	94.82
Diamondbacks	4351	344	363.60	0.079	0.084	94.61
Marlins	4491	359	395.76	0.080	0.088	90.71
Rockies	4599	349	393.86	0.076	0.086	88.61

Given that David Wright scores better than Alex Rodriguez, if the Mets sign A-Rod, they should move him to first.

Individual Third Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Ryan Zimmerman	4528	443	398.27	0.098	0.088	111.23
Joe Crede	1184	125	113.00	0.106	0.095	110.62
Pedro Feliz	3718	373	341.20	0.100	0.092	109.32
Aramis Ramirez	3208	329	308.47	0.103	0.096	106.65
David Wright	4260	403	378.91	0.095	0.089	106.36
Mike Lowell	3890	342	321.90	0.088	0.083	106.24
Melvin Mora	3225	318	301.25	0.099	0.093	105.56
Maicer Izturis	1320	101	95.97	0.077	0.073	105.24
Brandon Inge	4062	400	380.28	0.098	0.094	105.18
Adrian Beltre	4036	379	362.12	0.094	0.090	104.66
Alex Rodriguez	4158	342	330.85	0.082	0.080	103.37
Scott Rolen	2983	296	287.61	0.099	0.096	102.92
Troy Glaus	2803	241	234.49	0.086	0.084	102.78
Ramon Vazquez	1671	152	148.03	0.091	0.089	102.68
Chone Figgins	2561	198	192.85	0.077	0.075	102.67
Hank Blalock	1082	83	80.94	0.077	0.075	102.55
Morgan Ensberg	1778	165	162.23	0.093	0.091	101.71
Travis Metcalf	1376	114	113.26	0.083	0.082	100.65
Chipper Jones	3231	278	277.24	0.086	0.086	100.27
Nomar Garciaparra	1103	87	86.81	0.079	0.079	100.21
Eric Chavez	2379	218	218.17	0.092	0.092	99.92
Akinori Iwamura	3174	260	261.21	0.082	0.082	99.54
Abraham Nunez	1792	205	206.06	0.114	0.115	99.49
Alex Gordon	3609	318	321.97	0.088	0.089	98.77
Edwin Encarnacion	3620	308	314.99	0.085	0.087	97.78
Chad Tracy	1152	96	98.41	0.083	0.085	97.55
Wilson Betemit	1235	94	96.37	0.076	0.078	97.54
Nick Punto	2518	239	245.24	0.095	0.097	97.46
Jack Hannahan	1122	93	96.13	0.083	0.086	96.74
Wes Helms	1394	116	120.21	0.083	0.086	96.50
Greg Dobbs	1309	111	115.27	0.085	0.088	96.29
Kevin Kouzmanoff	3415	279	292.44	0.082	0.086	95.40
Ty Wigginton	1995	186	195.65	0.093	0.098	95.07
Mike Lamb	1320	108	113.69	0.082	0.086	95.00
Mark Reynolds	2542	196	208.42	0.077	0.082	94.04
Jose Bautista	3413	317	338.96	0.093	0.099	93.52
Casey Blake	3743	325	351.27	0.087	0.094	92.52
Josh Fields	2234	200	217.44	0.090	0.097	91.98
Miguel Cabrera	4055	330	361.80	0.081	0.089	91.21
Ryan Braun	2886	211	239.01	0.073	0.083	88.28
Garrett Atkins	4136	305	352.46	0.074	0.085	86.53

The bottom three on the list pretty much define all-hit and no-field.

Here are the PMR numbers for second basemen. First the team stats.

Team Second Basemen PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Reds	4533	517	470.97	0.114	0.104	109.77
Phillies	4505	507	486.30	0.113	0.108	104.26
Yankees	4511	551	528.65	0.122	0.117	104.23
Diamondbacks	4351	536	514.78	0.123	0.118	104.12
Rangers	4518	561	541.66	0.124	0.120	103.57
Twins	4384	508	491.17	0.116	0.112	103.43
Athletics	4499	610	592.38	0.136	0.132	102.97
Blue Jays	4349	589	574.80	0.135	0.132	102.47
Tigers	4486	505	494.43	0.113	0.110	102.14
Royals	4528	453	444.63	0.100	0.098	101.88
Red Sox	4226	524	515.37	0.124	0.122	101.67
Rockies	4599	558	548.82	0.121	0.119	101.67
Angels	4325	505	497.11	0.117	0.115	101.59
Mariners	4535	554	546.62	0.122	0.121	101.35
Nationals	4591	491	485.03	0.107	0.106	101.23
Indians	4548	564	557.26	0.124	0.123	101.21
Orioles	4403	534	528.33	0.121	0.120	101.07
White Sox	4545	467	466.32	0.103	0.103	100.15
Mets	4362	493	494.92	0.113	0.113	99.61
Cubs	4177	471	476.31	0.113	0.114	98.88
Brewers	4392	447	456.43	0.102	0.104	97.93
Braves	4404	521	533.24	0.118	0.121	97.70
Pirates	4608	428	440.07	0.093	0.096	97.26
Devil Rays	4378	493	507.26	0.113	0.116	97.19
Dodgers	4310	480	494.92	0.111	0.115	96.99
Cardinals	4587	509	525.15	0.111	0.114	96.92
Padres	4476	556	575.50	0.124	0.129	96.61
Marlins	4491	463	487.55	0.103	0.109	94.96
Giants	4467	450	478.37	0.101	0.107	94.07
Astros	4530	461	495.20	0.102	0.109	93.09

Looking at the teams at the bottom of the list, old second basemen are a detriment to defense. Not only did Biggio at second not help the Astros offensively, it hurt them defensively as well. Now for the individual players.

Individual Second Base PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Brandon Phillips	4288	488	442.09	0.114	0.103	110.38
Chase Utley	3571	410	386.97	0.115	0.108	105.95
Jose Valentin	1123	154	145.56	0.137	0.130	105.80
Orlando Hudson	3552	435	412.20	0.122	0.116	105.53
Esteban German	1248	117	111.06	0.094	0.089	105.35
Ian Kinsler	3581	459	438.84	0.128	0.123	104.59
Ronnie Belliard	3168	337	322.49	0.106	0.102	104.50
Robinson Cano	4380	532	509.76	0.121	0.116	104.36
Josh Barfield	3237	396	381.63	0.122	0.118	103.76
Mark Ellis	4119	561	540.88	0.136	0.131	103.72
Kaz Matsui	2634	335	323.55	0.127	0.123	103.54
Aaron Hill	4230	576	558.01	0.136	0.132	103.22
B.J. Upton	1305	174	168.87	0.133	0.129	103.04
Placido Polanco	3724	420	409.07	0.113	0.110	102.67
Jose Lopez	3899	486	475.59	0.125	0.122	102.19
Mike Fontenot	1343	152	148.82	0.113	0.111	102.14
Howie Kendrick	2222	276	270.90	0.124	0.122	101.88
Alexi Casilla	1262	144	141.60	0.114	0.112	101.70
Mark Grudzielanek	3021	312	307.78	0.103	0.102	101.37
Luis Castillo	3569	370	365.52	0.104	0.102	101.23
Tadahito Iguchi	3285	359	354.84	0.109	0.108	101.17
Geoff Blum	1481	178	176.84	0.120	0.119	100.65
Brian Roberts	4068	487	487.37	0.120	0.120	99.92
Dustin Pedroia	3365	417	417.32	0.124	0.124	99.92
Kevin Frandsen	1044	111	112.56	0.106	0.108	98.61
Danny Richar	1554	152	154.45	0.098	0.099	98.42
Jamey Carroll	1396	165	168.34	0.118	0.121	98.02
Adam Kennedy	2060	250	256.18	0.121	0.124	97.59
Freddy Sanchez	4064	378	387.80	0.093	0.095	97.47
Kelly Johnson	3474	412	423.58	0.119	0.122	97.27
Felipe Lopez	1208	129	134.76	0.107	0.112	95.72
Jeff Kent	3237	355	372.41	0.110	0.115	95.33
Mark DeRosa	2056	223	234.54	0.108	0.114	95.08
Marcus Giles	2883	364	383.01	0.126	0.133	95.04
Aaron Miles	1834	183	194.00	0.100	0.106	94.33
Dan Uggla	4310	438	466.30	0.102	0.108	93.93
Rickie Weeks	3003	301	320.45	0.100	0.107	93.93
Ray Durham	3183	320	343.81	0.101	0.108	93.08
Craig Biggio	2878	283	308.32	0.098	0.107	91.79
Brendan Harris	1206	110	124.59	0.091	0.103	88.29

Rickie Weeks and Dan Uggla need to be at the top of their offensive games to stay at this important defensive position.

Correction: Fixed caption on first table.

Here are the team rankings for centerfielders:

Team Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Mariners	4535	452	423.84	0.100	0.093	106.64
Red Sox	4226	481	452.99	0.114	0.107	106.18
Tigers	4486	468	445.78	0.104	0.099	104.98
Cubs	4177	414	400.21	0.099	0.096	103.45
Mets	4362	464	449.88	0.106	0.103	103.14
Braves	4404	431	421.41	0.098	0.096	102.28
Dodgers	4310	379	371.16	0.088	0.086	102.11
Rockies	4599	414	407.81	0.090	0.089	101.52
Padres	4476	409	404.18	0.091	0.090	101.19
Cardinals	4587	417	412.78	0.091	0.090	101.02
Reds	4533	455	451.03	0.100	0.100	100.88
Giants	4467	438	437.08	0.098	0.098	100.21
Nationals	4591	486	485.40	0.106	0.106	100.12
Royals	4528	424	425.45	0.094	0.094	99.66
Yankees	4511	468	470.38	0.104	0.104	99.49
Phillies	4505	418	421.10	0.093	0.093	99.26
Twins	4384	415	418.19	0.095	0.095	99.24
White Sox	4545	415	418.55	0.091	0.092	99.15
Angels	4325	441	445.14	0.102	0.103	99.07
Marlins	4491	453	458.41	0.101	0.102	98.82
Astros	4530	433	439.56	0.096	0.097	98.51
Blue Jays	4349	366	372.05	0.084	0.086	98.37
Pirates	4608	448	456.67	0.097	0.099	98.10
Diamondbacks	4351	406	414.42	0.093	0.095	97.97
Indians	4548	413	422.64	0.091	0.093	97.72
Rangers	4518	388	399.38	0.086	0.088	97.15
Athletics	4499	398	410.38	0.088	0.091	96.98
Orioles	4403	409	423.66	0.093	0.096	96.54
Devil Rays	4378	419	444.79	0.096	0.102	94.20
Brewers	4392	410	437.27	0.093	0.100	93.76

The Mariners come out on top of the Red Sox overall, but Boston has the better individual fielder:

Individual Centerfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Coco Crisp	3560	408	377.29	0.115	0.106	108.14
Ichiro Suzuki	4233	424	394.49	0.100	0.093	107.48
Felix Pie	1169	120	112.75	0.103	0.096	106.43
Curtis Granderson	3995	424	402.22	0.106	0.101	105.42
Jacque Jones	1911	195	187.25	0.102	0.098	104.14
Darin Erstad	1117	105	101.18	0.094	0.091	103.77
Willy Taveras	2274	212	204.80	0.093	0.090	103.52
So Taguchi	1190	118	114.17	0.099	0.096	103.35
Ryan Church	1024	118	114.35	0.115	0.112	103.19
Andruw Jones	4080	396	385.38	0.097	0.094	102.76
Juan Pierre	4215	366	356.47	0.087	0.085	102.67
Josh Hamilton	1702	168	163.71	0.099	0.096	102.62
Carlos Beltran	3733	389	380.89	0.104	0.102	102.13
Johnny Damon	1211	121	118.84	0.100	0.098	101.82
Gary Matthews Jr.	3462	362	356.66	0.105	0.103	101.50
Mike Cameron	4016	365	360.75	0.091	0.090	101.18
Nook Logan	2398	248	245.18	0.103	0.102	101.15
Norris Hopper	1280	133	132.11	0.104	0.103	100.67
Dave Roberts	2334	224	222.68	0.096	0.095	100.59
Torii Hunter	4034	389	389.12	0.096	0.096	99.97
David DeJesus	4256	400	400.98	0.094	0.094	99.76
Alfredo Amezaga	2005	208	208.88	0.104	0.104	99.58
Jim Edmonds	2688	244	245.68	0.091	0.091	99.32
Aaron Rowand	4243	392	394.89	0.092	0.093	99.27
Hunter Pence	2636	260	261.99	0.099	0.099	99.24
Chris Duffy	1693	172	174.17	0.102	0.103	98.75
Melky Cabrera	3297	347	351.54	0.105	0.107	98.71
Rajai Davis	1162	124	125.75	0.107	0.108	98.60
Ryan Freel	1419	136	138.16	0.096	0.097	98.44
Vernon Wells	3813	321	326.31	0.084	0.086	98.37
Grady Sizemore	4383	399	407.44	0.091	0.093	97.93
Jerry Owens	2294	208	212.80	0.091	0.093	97.75
Chris Young	3824	354	364.20	0.093	0.095	97.20
B.J. Upton	2014	204	210.16	0.101	0.104	97.07
Mark Kotsay	1492	141	145.40	0.095	0.097	96.98
Nick Swisher	1515	139	144.94	0.092	0.096	95.90
Marlon Byrd	1541	114	119.68	0.074	0.078	95.25
Nate McLouth	1583	142	150.82	0.090	0.095	94.15
Kenny Lofton	2219	188	199.69	0.085	0.090	94.15
Corey Patterson	3225	281	298.69	0.087	0.093	94.08
Bill Hall	3159	295	314.62	0.093	0.100	93.76
Elijah Dukes	1010	82	92.28	0.081	0.091	88.86

Note to that the shift of Bill Hall to center worked neither offensively nor defensively. Andruw Jones may not be as good as he once was, but he can still go get the ball.

Phil Allard calls for Jeter to be moved to another position based on his poor fielding.

I will say this again just so his fanboys won't think I am engaging in gratuitous Jeter bashing:

Derek Jeter is a hall of fame offensive player. He could end up over 3,500 hits in his career. He is a great and loyal Yankee. He's a smart player and an excellent hitter in the 2 hole. Yes. Yes. Yes.

But the point is the Yanks must entertain the idea of moving Jeter to another position. I suggest first base, but he could also handle the outfield or even 3B.

The right move for the Yankees would have been to move Jeter to center when they acquired A-Rod, and push Bernie to DH.

A number of people are suggesting new ways to construct the models, but before I try those methods I'd like to present the model used last year for the nine fielding positions, starting with shortstops. I am including something new, however, the full team at the position.

Team Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Rockies	4599	657	602.67	0.143	0.131	109.01
Twins	4384	556	523.57	0.127	0.119	106.19
Dodgers	4310	556	526.50	0.129	0.122	105.60
Royals	4528	543	514.33	0.120	0.114	105.57
Blue Jays	4349	567	544.69	0.130	0.125	104.09
Phillies	4505	531	516.45	0.118	0.115	102.82
Indians	4548	571	558.76	0.126	0.123	102.19
Pirates	4608	588	575.51	0.128	0.125	102.17
Red Sox	4226	500	492.12	0.118	0.116	101.60
Giants	4467	592	584.51	0.133	0.131	101.28
Diamondbacks	4351	493	488.99	0.113	0.112	100.82
Brewers	4392	501	497.76	0.114	0.113	100.65
Angels	4325	502	498.77	0.116	0.115	100.65
Marlins	4491	508	506.53	0.113	0.113	100.29
Mariners	4535	515	514.50	0.114	0.113	100.10
Orioles	4403	505	506.89	0.115	0.115	99.63
Astros	4530	561	563.85	0.124	0.124	99.49
Braves	4404	516	520.04	0.117	0.118	99.22
Cardinals	4587	539	544.84	0.118	0.119	98.93
Reds	4533	496	502.70	0.109	0.111	98.67
Athletics	4499	531	538.40	0.118	0.120	98.62
Padres	4476	536	544.49	0.120	0.122	98.44
Mets	4362	506	518.72	0.116	0.119	97.55
Cubs	4177	481	495.42	0.115	0.119	97.09
White Sox	4545	563	580.23	0.124	0.128	97.03
Tigers	4486	517	536.95	0.115	0.120	96.28
Rangers	4518	531	556.38	0.118	0.123	95.44
Devil Rays	4378	441	466.20	0.101	0.106	94.59
Nationals	4591	532	566.26	0.116	0.123	93.95
Yankees	4511	478	516.85	0.106	0.115	92.48

The above table will give you an idea of how the regular shortstop fit in the team context. You might imagine that Troy Tulowitzki was very good and Derek Jeter very bad:

Individual Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Troy Tulowitzki	4294	615	564.54	0.143	0.131	108.94
Tony F Pena	4010	480	449.44	0.120	0.112	106.80
Rafael Furcal	3574	473	445.28	0.132	0.125	106.23
John McDonald	2389	311	294.27	0.130	0.123	105.69
Jason Bartlett	3631	466	443.58	0.128	0.122	105.05
Jimmy Rollins	4447	528	511.62	0.119	0.115	103.20
Jack Wilson	3657	470	457.15	0.129	0.125	102.81
Yunel Escobar	1116	135	131.47	0.121	0.118	102.69
Jhonny Peralta	4206	512	502.37	0.122	0.119	101.92
Omar Vizquel	3739	504	497.76	0.135	0.133	101.25
Julio Lugo	3592	431	426.14	0.120	0.119	101.14
Adam Everett	1631	217	214.61	0.133	0.132	101.12
Orlando Cabrera	3997	462	456.91	0.116	0.114	101.11
Alex Gonzalez	2728	306	306.06	0.112	0.112	99.98
J.J. Hardy	3873	442	442.35	0.114	0.114	99.92
Cesar Izturis	1904	216	216.36	0.113	0.114	99.83
Bobby Crosby	2524	313	313.77	0.124	0.124	99.75
Stephen Drew	3877	434	435.25	0.112	0.112	99.71
Hanley Ramirez	4054	460	462.96	0.113	0.114	99.36
Ryan Theriot	2494	301	303.06	0.121	0.122	99.32
Khalil Greene	4206	504	507.64	0.120	0.121	99.28
Mark Loretta	1537	177	178.28	0.115	0.116	99.28
Yuniesky Betancourt	4103	464	467.60	0.113	0.114	99.23
Edgar Renteria	3067	361	365.13	0.118	0.119	98.87
Eric Bruntlett	1075	131	132.81	0.122	0.124	98.63
Royce Clayton	1538	200	202.77	0.130	0.132	98.63
Marco Scutaro	1064	122	124.14	0.115	0.117	98.28
Juan Uribe	4113	513	524.43	0.125	0.128	97.82
Jose Reyes	4295	500	511.97	0.116	0.119	97.66
David Eckstein	3002	349	357.57	0.116	0.119	97.60
Miguel Tejada	3317	363	373.46	0.109	0.113	97.20
Jeff Keppinger	1209	130	135.67	0.108	0.112	95.82
Carlos Guillen	3361	389	408.05	0.116	0.121	95.33
Felipe Lopez	2949	359	377.76	0.122	0.128	95.03
Michael Young	4083	476	504.85	0.117	0.124	94.29
Josh Wilson	1340	141	151.37	0.105	0.113	93.15
Brendan Harris	2336	234	253.12	0.100	0.108	92.45
Derek Jeter	4117	421	461.63	0.102	0.112	91.20
Cristian Guzman	1189	117	130.96	0.098	0.110	89.34

Troy really blew the competition away in terms of PMR, and Tony Pena did his best to make up for his poor hitting. And while New York enjoys two fine offensive shortstops, neither exactly sparkles with the glove. You can also see why the Tigers are moving Carlos Guillen to first. Michael Young may not be far behind him.

Rawlings presented the 2007 Gold Glove winners today. Maddux set a record with his 17th. David Wright won at third base, which I think would make it difficult for the Mets to move him to first if they sign A-Rod. Four outfielders won the NL award as there was a tie in the voting.

One thing PMR can measure is the luck of pitchers by looking at the predicted DER and actual DER behind them. The following table rates pitchers with at least 300 balls in play against them:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Defense Behind Pitchers, 2007. Visit Smoothed Distance Model. 2007 Data Only

Pitcher	Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	643	448	414.94	0.697	0.645	107.97
Jeremy Guthrie	Bal	527	375	356.60	0.712	0.677	105.16
Dustin McGowan	Tor	484	346	330.21	0.715	0.682	104.78
Sean Marshall	ChC	330	231	221.12	0.700	0.670	104.47
Roger Clemens	NYY	307	215	205.94	0.700	0.671	104.40
Brian Bannister	KC	540	393	376.52	0.728	0.697	104.38
Jarrod Washburn	Sea	627	440	422.32	0.702	0.674	104.19
Mike Bacsik	Was	414	291	279.42	0.703	0.675	104.14
Tom Glavine	NYM	674	474	455.80	0.703	0.676	103.99
Jason Hirsh	Col	340	252	242.53	0.741	0.713	103.91
Ted Lilly	ChC	586	427	411.59	0.729	0.702	103.74
Braden Looper	StL	581	416	401.23	0.716	0.691	103.68
Chris Sampson	Hou	414	292	281.66	0.705	0.680	103.67
Cole Hamels	Phi	495	348	336.00	0.703	0.679	103.57
Brad Penny	LAD	643	450	435.62	0.700	0.677	103.30
Dontrelle Willis	Fla	667	442	428.96	0.663	0.643	103.04
Yovani Gallardo	Mil	318	216	209.67	0.679	0.659	103.02
Jesse Litsch	Tor	371	259	251.51	0.698	0.678	102.98
Jason Bergmann	Was	332	248	241.02	0.747	0.726	102.90
Anthony Reyes	StL	332	236	229.52	0.711	0.691	102.82
Curt Schilling	Bos	485	338	328.75	0.697	0.678	102.82
Chuck James	Atl	484	352	342.43	0.727	0.707	102.80
Nate Robertson	Det	573	389	378.44	0.679	0.660	102.79
Aaron Cook	Col	572	401	390.44	0.701	0.683	102.70
Tim Lincecum	SF	389	277	269.87	0.712	0.694	102.64
Jon Garland	CWS	705	493	480.70	0.699	0.682	102.56
Steve Trachsel	Bal	491	351	342.47	0.715	0.697	102.49
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	555	384	375.16	0.692	0.676	102.36
Noah Lowry	SF	502	349	340.97	0.695	0.679	102.35
Tim Hudson	Atl	722	504	492.65	0.698	0.682	102.30
C.C. Sabathia	Cle	701	476	465.40	0.679	0.664	102.28
Chad Durbin	Det	417	304	297.37	0.729	0.713	102.23
Carlos Zambrano	ChC	610	439	429.45	0.720	0.704	102.22
Micah Owings	Ari	461	332	324.88	0.720	0.705	102.19
James Shields	TB	615	435	425.93	0.707	0.693	102.13
Erik Bedard	Bal	431	306	299.70	0.710	0.695	102.10
Jake Westbrook	Cle	481	329	322.43	0.684	0.670	102.04
John Lackey	LAA	668	459	450.14	0.687	0.674	101.97
Oliver Perez	NYM	483	341	334.57	0.706	0.693	101.92
Justin Verlander	Det	577	407	399.34	0.705	0.692	101.92
Barry Zito	SF	608	441	432.73	0.725	0.712	101.91
Roy Halladay	Tor	722	497	488.79	0.688	0.677	101.68
Jason Marquis	ChC	626	440	432.86	0.703	0.691	101.65
Zack Greinke	KC	350	239	235.18	0.683	0.672	101.63
Buddy Carlyle	Atl	335	229	225.46	0.684	0.673	101.57
A.J. Burnett	Tor	414	301	296.47	0.727	0.716	101.53
Johan Santana	Min	555	394	388.14	0.710	0.699	101.51
Jake Peavy	SD	571	409	403.20	0.716	0.706	101.44
Kyle Kendrick	Phi	401	284	280.03	0.708	0.698	101.42
Greg Maddux	SD	681	466	459.63	0.684	0.675	101.39
Tim Wakefield	Bos	600	425	419.24	0.708	0.699	101.37
Fausto Carmona	Cle	654	463	456.92	0.708	0.699	101.33
Kelvim Escobar	LAA	572	387	382.00	0.677	0.668	101.31
Joe Blanton	Oak	750	520	513.28	0.693	0.684	101.31
Rich Hill	ChC	527	378	373.19	0.717	0.708	101.29
Odalis Perez	KC	494	325	320.93	0.658	0.650	101.27
Matt Morris	SF	473	315	311.16	0.666	0.658	101.23
Carlos Silva	Min	699	485	479.14	0.694	0.685	101.22
Adam Eaton	Phi	525	356	351.83	0.678	0.670	101.19
Felix Hernandez	Sea	567	372	367.73	0.656	0.649	101.16
Wandy Rodriguez	Hou	536	366	361.86	0.683	0.675	101.14
Vicente Padilla	Tex	407	270	266.96	0.663	0.656	101.14
Aaron Harang	Cin	642	451	446.11	0.702	0.695	101.10
Livan Hernandez	Ari	704	488	482.76	0.693	0.686	101.08
Orlando Hernandez	NYM	388	299	295.82	0.771	0.762	101.08
Jamie Moyer	Phi	633	432	427.41	0.682	0.675	101.08
Ian Snell	Pit	606	413	408.93	0.682	0.675	101.00
Andy Pettitte	NYY	690	457	452.68	0.662	0.656	100.96
Tom Gorzelanny	Pit	642	439	435.75	0.684	0.679	100.75
Matt Albers	Hou	362	247	245.52	0.682	0.678	100.60
Lenny DiNardo	Oak	430	302	300.28	0.702	0.698	100.57
John Danks	CWS	427	289	287.39	0.677	0.673	100.56
Mark Hendrickson	LAD	395	262	260.58	0.663	0.660	100.55
Jorge Sosa	NYM	361	256	254.94	0.709	0.706	100.42
Brandon Webb	Ari	692	480	478.35	0.694	0.691	100.34
Carlos Villanueva	Mil	318	229	228.36	0.720	0.718	100.28
John Maine	NYM	527	377	376.07	0.715	0.714	100.25
Justin Germano	SD	426	302	301.31	0.709	0.707	100.23
Chad Billingsley	LAD	400	279	278.70	0.697	0.697	100.11
Ben Sheets	Mil	431	307	306.74	0.712	0.712	100.09
Roy Oswalt	Hou	675	456	456.10	0.676	0.676	99.98
Jered Weaver	LAA	514	348	348.13	0.677	0.677	99.96
Mike Mussina	NYY	512	335	335.31	0.654	0.655	99.91
Josh Beckett	Bos	566	385	385.40	0.680	0.681	99.90
Matt Chico	Was	548	380	380.44	0.693	0.694	99.88
Matt Belisle	Cin	570	378	378.52	0.663	0.664	99.86
Shaun Marcum	Tor	456	329	329.69	0.721	0.723	99.79
Jeff Weaver	Sea	511	340	340.84	0.665	0.667	99.75
Derek Lowe	LAD	604	412	413.67	0.682	0.685	99.60
Kameron Loe	Tex	464	305	306.28	0.657	0.660	99.58
Joe Saunders	LAA	358	235	236.04	0.656	0.659	99.56
Brad Thompson	StL	451	307	308.45	0.681	0.684	99.53
Josh Fogg	Col	556	381	383.08	0.685	0.689	99.46
Horacio Ramirez	Sea	361	231	232.31	0.640	0.644	99.44
Jeff Francis	Col	662	447	449.57	0.675	0.679	99.43
Miguel Batista	Sea	615	415	417.51	0.675	0.679	99.40
Paul Byrd	Cle	686	465	467.91	0.678	0.682	99.38
Gil Meche	KC	663	459	462.21	0.692	0.697	99.31
Claudio Vargas	Mil	419	281	283.02	0.671	0.675	99.29
Mark Buehrle	CWS	648	455	458.82	0.702	0.708	99.17
Boof Bonser	Min	539	359	362.02	0.666	0.672	99.17
Javier Vazquez	CWS	583	409	412.68	0.702	0.708	99.11
Edwin Jackson	TB	516	333	336.02	0.645	0.651	99.10
Bartolo Colon	LAA	328	205	206.87	0.625	0.631	99.09
Tony Armas Jr.	Pit	305	208	209.93	0.682	0.688	99.08
Jorge de la Rosa	KC	431	285	287.91	0.661	0.668	98.99
Jason Jennings	Hou	319	214	216.25	0.671	0.678	98.96
Edgar Gonzalez	Ari	324	228	230.41	0.704	0.711	98.96
Chris Young	SD	448	336	339.55	0.750	0.758	98.96
Julian Tavarez	Bos	455	307	310.39	0.675	0.682	98.91
Woody Williams	Hou	632	443	448.01	0.701	0.709	98.88
Daniel Cabrera	Bal	608	415	419.74	0.683	0.690	98.87
Bronson Arroyo	Cin	661	449	454.60	0.679	0.688	98.77
Kyle Lohse	Cin	426	293	296.71	0.688	0.697	98.75
Cliff Lee	Cle	317	216	218.74	0.681	0.690	98.75
Paul Maholm	Pit	583	391	396.00	0.671	0.679	98.74
Chad Gaudin	Oak	603	413	418.34	0.685	0.694	98.72
Ervin Santana	LAA	457	302	306.05	0.661	0.670	98.68
Doug Davis	Ari	597	400	405.62	0.670	0.679	98.61
Sergio Mitre	Fla	522	343	347.92	0.657	0.667	98.59
Adam Wainwright	StL	654	441	447.57	0.674	0.684	98.53
Byung-Hyun Kim	Fla	316	212	215.40	0.671	0.682	98.42
Ramon Ortiz	Min	324	217	220.56	0.670	0.681	98.39
Kevin Correia	SF	306	217	220.82	0.709	0.722	98.27
Kevin Millwood	Tex	571	364	370.63	0.637	0.649	98.21
Jeremy Bonderman	Det	533	354	360.70	0.664	0.677	98.14
Scott Baker	Min	454	302	308.06	0.665	0.679	98.03
Dan Haren	Oak	661	457	466.27	0.691	0.705	98.01
Randy Wolf	LAD	309	205	209.32	0.663	0.677	97.93
Jeff Suppan	Mil	708	472	482.96	0.667	0.682	97.73
Josh Towers	Tor	347	229	234.38	0.660	0.675	97.71
Matt Cain	SF	571	409	419.20	0.716	0.734	97.57
John Smoltz	Atl	586	400	410.60	0.683	0.701	97.42
Brandon McCarthy	Tex	340	232	238.54	0.682	0.702	97.26
Taylor Buchholz	Col	305	207	212.87	0.679	0.698	97.24
Andy Sonnanstine	TB	408	272	280.02	0.667	0.686	97.13
Brian Burres	Bal	378	249	256.88	0.659	0.680	96.93
Brett Tomko	LAD	339	219	226.04	0.646	0.667	96.89
Joe Kennedy	Oak	346	242	250.10	0.699	0.723	96.76
Scott Kazmir	TB	534	346	358.19	0.648	0.671	96.60
Chris Capuano	Mil	456	297	307.78	0.651	0.675	96.50
Robinson Tejeda	Tex	302	204	212.16	0.675	0.703	96.16
David Wells	SD	416	271	282.44	0.651	0.679	95.95
David Bush	Mil	594	395	412.87	0.665	0.695	95.67
Zach Duke	Pit	399	246	258.54	0.617	0.648	95.15
Jose Contreras	CWS	647	420	441.74	0.649	0.683	95.08
Kip Wells	StL	522	342	360.50	0.655	0.691	94.87
Scott Olsen	Fla	578	366	387.16	0.633	0.670	94.53

Chien-Ming Wang comes out on top by far, not surprising given the Yankees overall defensive rating. What bothers me about Wang, however, is the low level of his predicted DER. You would think that someone who gets a lot of ground balls would be somewhat higher. The following chart breaks down Wang by ball in play type:

CM Wang by Batted Ball Type, 2007

Batted Ball Type	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Fly	112	101	98.85	0.902	0.883	102.18
Liner	92	29	16.14	0.315	0.175	179.66
Grounder	377	291	269.40	0.772	0.715	108.02
Bunt Grounder	6	4	4.20	0.667	0.700	95.24
Bunt Fly	1	1	1.00	1.000	1.000	100.00
Fliner (Fly)	29	13	14.12	0.448	0.487	92.09
Fliner (Liner)	26	9	11.23	0.346	0.432	80.12

Notice that the defense behind Wang caught a lot more line drives than predicted. Line drives tend to fall for hits, so by adding thirteen extra outs with liners, the Yankees really helped Wang. So Chien-Ming got a bit lucky that way. The grounders, however, is where the defense really shined. They picked up about twenty one more outs than expected on ground balls. How did they do that? The Yankees made a lot of plays on low probability vectors:

Wang Ground Balls by Vector, 2007

Vector	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
28	8	6	7.02	0.750	0.877	85.52
29	17	13	12.05	0.765	0.709	107.90
30	29	21	17.57	0.724	0.606	119.49
31	28	27	24.76	0.964	0.884	109.04
32	19	18	18.43	0.947	0.970	97.66
33	32	29	26.75	0.906	0.836	108.40
34	17	12	9.48	0.706	0.558	126.59
35	11	9	7.38	0.818	0.671	121.97
36	23	14	13.01	0.609	0.566	107.58
37	22	12	13.66	0.545	0.621	87.82
38	27	24	23.07	0.889	0.854	104.04
39	31	30	25.58	0.968	0.825	117.26
40	22	19	17.41	0.864	0.792	109.11
41	34	24	17.12	0.706	0.504	140.19
42	27	17	19.83	0.630	0.734	85.73
43	11	9	9.71	0.818	0.883	92.67
44	10	5	4.56	0.500	0.456	109.71

The vectors go from a low of 28 at the third base line to a high of 44 at the first base line. By looking at the Predicted DER column, you can see where the holes are in the infield. Vector 30 represents the hole between third and short, vectors 34-37 the area around second base where ground balls go into centerfield, and vector 41, the hole between first and second. Note that Wang does well in the holes, as if the defense were shifted a bit toward first base. Both the line drive and ground ball data make me wonder if someone was doing a very good job of positioning the Yankees fielders. I don't know who was in charge of that, but in the case of Wang, they did a very good job.

That brings up a point I haven't made in a while. Range is probably a poor word for the ability measured here. Range implies that the fielder can move a long way to get a ball. But sometimes anticipating where the ball gets hit is just as important. So the ability to move and the ability to position are two factors in what the model means by range.

On the other end of the spectrum, Matt Cain not only received no run support, he didn't get much defensive support either. And the defense behind Kazmir was just ridiculous. Here's a pitcher who keeps balls in play to a minimum, and his defense can't turn the few hit to them into outs.

I'll start on individual positions tomorrow.

Baseball Info Solutions sent me their final stats for 2007 over the weekend. That means it's time to start presenting the 2007 Probabilistic Model or Range. If you're new to this, you can find explanations in this archive. Basically, for each fieldable (non inside the park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking.

The model is based primarily on visiting player data, smoothed, distance on fly balls. Only 2007 data was used to construct the model.

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. In fact, the team ranked first in 2007 is a bit of a surprise for that very reason.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Yankees	4511	3103	3041.46	0.688	0.674	0.01364
Red Sox	4226	2974	2919.61	0.704	0.691	0.01287
Cubs	4177	2943	2895.51	0.705	0.693	0.01137
Blue Jays	4349	3060	3017.22	0.704	0.694	0.00984
Royals	4528	3093	3058.20	0.683	0.675	0.00768
Angels	4325	2930	2900.79	0.677	0.671	0.00675
Phillies	4505	3085	3056.00	0.685	0.678	0.00644
Rockies	4599	3221	3195.95	0.700	0.695	0.00545
Tigers	4486	3094	3072.58	0.690	0.685	0.00477
Braves	4404	3069	3048.96	0.697	0.692	0.00455
Mets	4362	3050	3033.08	0.699	0.695	0.00388
Giants	4467	3108	3096.80	0.696	0.693	0.00251
Orioles	4403	3017	3006.12	0.685	0.683	0.00247
Rangers	4518	3071	3061.36	0.680	0.678	0.00213
Nationals	4591	3198	3191.04	0.697	0.695	0.00152
Indians	4548	3112	3107.26	0.684	0.683	0.00104
Padres	4476	3131	3128.60	0.700	0.699	0.00054
Mariners	4535	3050	3051.99	0.673	0.673	-0.00044
Diamondbacks	4351	3013	3016.84	0.692	0.693	-0.00088
Dodgers	4310	2942	2945.91	0.683	0.684	-0.00091
Cardinals	4587	3150	3154.99	0.687	0.688	-0.00109
Twins	4384	3003	3014.01	0.685	0.688	-0.00251
Astros	4530	3099	3120.86	0.684	0.689	-0.00483
Reds	4533	3068	3096.08	0.677	0.683	-0.00619
Pirates	4608	3099	3132.67	0.673	0.680	-0.00731
Athletics	4499	3110	3144.35	0.691	0.699	-0.00763
Brewers	4392	2966	3011.82	0.675	0.686	-0.01043
White Sox	4545	3089	3141.16	0.680	0.691	-0.01148
Marlins	4491	2962	3039.28	0.660	0.677	-0.01721
Devil Rays	4378	2867	2943.31	0.655	0.672	-0.01743

That's right, the Yankees are number one. Without running the individual numbers, I'm guessing that a full season of Melky Cabrera and keeping Giambi off first really helped. The Red Sox defense turned a higher percentage of their balls in play into outs, but they also were given easier balls to field in general.

I wondered why the Tampa Bay pitching staff did so poorly with the high number of strikeouts they collected, and the reason is clear in these numbers. The Devil Rays defense was horrible. In fact, the state of Florida just can't play defense, with the Marlins ranking 29th in the majors.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look a lot better than their posted DER. If they ever get a good set of pitchers on that team, they're going to post a low ERA.

For those of you who prefer a ranking by ratio of DER/Predicted DER, here's the table with that data.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Yankees	4511	3103	3041.46	0.688	0.674	102.02
Red Sox	4226	2974	2919.61	0.704	0.691	101.86
Cubs	4177	2943	2895.51	0.705	0.693	101.64
Blue Jays	4349	3060	3017.22	0.704	0.694	101.42
Royals	4528	3093	3058.20	0.683	0.675	101.14
Angels	4325	2930	2900.79	0.677	0.671	101.01
Phillies	4505	3085	3056.00	0.685	0.678	100.95
Rockies	4599	3221	3195.95	0.700	0.695	100.78
Tigers	4486	3094	3072.58	0.690	0.685	100.70
Braves	4404	3069	3048.96	0.697	0.692	100.66
Mets	4362	3050	3033.08	0.699	0.695	100.56
Orioles	4403	3017	3006.12	0.685	0.683	100.36
Giants	4467	3108	3096.80	0.696	0.693	100.36
Rangers	4518	3071	3061.36	0.680	0.678	100.31
Nationals	4591	3198	3191.04	0.697	0.695	100.22
Indians	4548	3112	3107.26	0.684	0.683	100.15
Padres	4476	3131	3128.60	0.700	0.699	100.08
Mariners	4535	3050	3051.99	0.673	0.673	99.93
Diamondbacks	4351	3013	3016.84	0.692	0.693	99.87
Dodgers	4310	2942	2945.91	0.683	0.684	99.87
Cardinals	4587	3150	3154.99	0.687	0.688	99.84
Twins	4384	3003	3014.01	0.685	0.688	99.63
Astros	4530	3099	3120.86	0.684	0.689	99.30
Reds	4533	3068	3096.08	0.677	0.683	99.09
Pirates	4608	3099	3132.67	0.673	0.680	98.93
Athletics	4499	3110	3144.35	0.691	0.699	98.91
Brewers	4392	2966	3011.82	0.675	0.686	98.48
White Sox	4545	3089	3141.16	0.680	0.691	98.34
Marlins	4491	2962	3039.28	0.660	0.677	97.46
Devil Rays	4378	2867	2943.31	0.655	0.672	97.41

C. Trent Rosecrans interviews John Dewan about the 2007 Fielding Bible awards.

On Baseball and the Reds is writing a series on defensive stats, including how to combine various range data into a better model.

Bob Melvin praises the Rockies defense:

"You gotta tip your hat," Arizona Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin said. "We hit some balls hard. Seemed like every ball we hit hard, someone ended up making a good play, whether it's in the outfield or infield.

"It's different than the Rockies you've seen in the past defensively. They're as good as anybody in baseball, and it's shown up all series."

The Rockies DER this season was .703, which is remarkable given their ballpark. Lots of hits tend to fall in the big outfield. I can't wait to see what PMR says about their team defense.

Coco Crisp almost makes a great defensive play in centerfield on Izturis. Crisp dives and gets the ball in his glove, but he loses it as he hits the ground. Izturs gets a double, the first extra-base hit allowed by Schilling in the game.

Update: Kendrick grounds to second, moving Izturis to third. The Angels don't have that many outs left, however, so even productive ones are costly.

Update: Rivera pops out to first on a split-finger that was sinking fast. Schilling's doing a great job today of keeping the Angels hitters off balance.

Update: Schilling strikes out Napoli to end the inning and get a short shutout. At 100 pitches, Curt is unlikely to come out for the eighth. It's an impressive outing that seems to be the norm for the new Schilling. He strikes out just four, and he only walked one. Instead of striking out a lot of batters, Schilling is causing them to hit the ball poorly. He's getting a lot of outs even with a lot of balls in play. The Red Sox defense helps there as well.

The Phillies load the bases with two outs in the second inning, but Oliver induces a ground ball to short. Ruiz was cutting in front of Reyes as the ball approached him, and Jose booted the grounder. He recovered and tried to throw to second, but the runner was already safe and the throw goes through Castillo. Two runs score on two errors by Reyes, and the normally sure-handed Mets defense costs them.

Perez continues to walk Phillies, as he walked Rollins to start the game and Eaton to load the bases. He's now walked 14 Phillies in 10 2/3 innings.

David Ortiz doubles off the wall in left, then Lowell singles hard to center. I was absolutely amazed that the third base coach sent Ortiz. Posada had to wait a second for David to slide into him. Melky picks up his fourteenth assist of the year, and the Red Sox have two outs and a man on second instead of first and third, one out.

Update: Giambi gets eaten up by a hot shot off Drew's bat and the Red Sox score their second run. There's been poor infield defense by the Yankees tonight.

Jeter's made too poor plays in the first inning. He made a bad throw on a ground by Lugo resulting in an error, and just now he booted a double play ground by David Ortiz, only getting an out at first. How he wins Gold Gloves is beyond me.

A very nice play by the Mariners in the top of the first inning. Willits leads off with a single, then goes on a hit and run with Cabrera at the plate. Orlando hits the ball the other way, just to the rightfield side of second. But Seattle had the shortstop cover on the play, so Lopez was in the perfect spot to make the play, make a quick toss to Betancourt who then completed the double play. They guessed right on that one.

Once again, you can help determine the best and worst defenders in baseball. TangoTiger needs your help. He want your opinions of fielders as he puts together The 2007 Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans. If you watch a lot of games and have opinions on fielders, please take his survey and be part of the wisdom of the crowds approach to quantifying defense.

Posada and Clemens combine for an interesting double play. With Inge on third and Maybin on first, Clemens strikes out Thames. Maybin was running, and as Posada threw, Inge broke for the plate. But Posada threw the ball to Clemens, not second base. Roger ran down Brandon for the second out to end the inning.

Roger has the strikeout pitch working today as he's K'd six through three innings. The Yankees lead 1-0 on a Posada homer as it's a Jorge Day on both sides of the ball.

Update: Maybin hits his first home run, a shot to straight-away center. The solo shot in the fifth gives the Tigers a 2-1 lead.

In the bottom of the eight in Cleveland, Byrdak walks two batters with two out to bring up Travis Hafner. He lines one to left center, where Granderson lays out to make a fantastic diving catch to keep the game tied. If Detroit wins this one, Curtis gets the game ball.

Update: In the bottom of the ninth, Chris Gomez leads off with a double. That brings up Peralta against Rodney. Jhonny was 0 for 8 vs. Rodney with three Ks. However, he's batted very well this season with men on base and with runners in scoring position. The announcers thought Peralta should bunt, but Wedge has him swing away and he strikes out on a heater right down the middle of the plate. I could go either way on this one, but it seems Peralta has a decent chance of ending the game by letting him swing away.

Update: Rodney strikes out the final two batters in the inning. They'll go to extra innings. The Indians struck out 13 times in the first nine, Detroit 11.

The Phillies defeated the Braves 5-3 tonight to take second place in the NL East. But Jeff Francoeur kept the Braves in the game with two base runner kills. That brings Jeff's total of outfielder assists to seventeen, six more than anyone else in the NL. I suspect coaches will stop sending runners on Francoeur soon.

Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter reach bases leading off the third inning on balls that could have been outs. Both went for hits. The first was a pop up behind second that just ticked off Peralta's glove, but he didn't take a great route to the ball. I would have given him an error. The second was a grounder up the middle by Jeter. Peralta dived for the ball, and it just ticked off his glove to put runners at first and third.

Then Abreu hit one up the middle, Peralta fielded it on the first-base side of second, but Barfield didn't cover, and by the time Jhonny was able to tag second, he couldn't get the double play. The Yankees lead 3-0 in the third.

The Toronto Blue Jays show off their arms in the top of the fifth. McDonald made a great throw from deep in the hole to nip A-Rod at first. Then for the second time tonight, Posada gets thrown out trying to stretch a double into a double. Rios got him in the fifth, and Reed Johnson caught him earlier. Finally, McDonald makes another nice play in the hole to force a runner at second to end the inning. The defense kept a 4-0 Yankees lead from expanding.

Great play at the plate in the Toronto-New York game. With the score 2-1 Toronto in the bottom of the ninth, Phillips singles and Cairo pinch runs and steals second. Cabrera singles to shallow right, and Miguel tries to score from second. Rios makes a great throw, and Zaun blocks the plate perfectly, flipping Cairo away from home and holding onto the ball for the out. Miguel may have injured his shoulder on the play.

Cabrera took second on the throw, then stole third with one out. Damon walks, and Jeter is up with the tying run 90 feet away.

Update: Accardo balks to force in the tying run and take away the double play. The great defensive play saves a run, but we'll see if it saves the game.

Update: Jeter hits a perfect double play ball to short, as does Abreu to end the inning. Without the balk, the Blue Jays win the game. Instead, the teams go to the tenth tied at two.

Update: Robinson Cano singles home A-Rod in the 10th and the Yankees take the game 3-2. The gain a game on the Red Sox and put a little more distance between them and the Blue Jays.

I just saw a very bad example of the umpire giving the second baseman the out on a double play just for being close to the bag. Fontenot took the throw from the third baseman about a foot in front of the bag. The camera work was bad and blurry, but the picture cleared as the camera came to rest on the second baseman. It was clear at that point he was no where near the bag, and there was no runner bearing down on him. You need to be a little closer than that.

The Milwaukee Brewers made four errors this afternoon, and at least one other bad play that went for a triple as they lose to Pittsburgh 6-2. The errors led to two unearned runs. Milwaukee had opportunities to score. They loaded the bases in the second but did not score. Shane Youman gave up eight hits, a walk and a hit batter in six innings of work, but allowed just two runs. Last year, despite walking ten and striking out just five in 21 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.91 ERA. It appears this pitcher bends but he doesn't break.

The Twins came up in the bottom of the ninth inning last night trailing 5-4 with Joe Mauer leading off the inning. Joe smacked a hard grounder up the middle, and off the bat I thought, "There's a hit." But as the camera turned to show the field, Royce Clayton was crouching in front of the ball, and made an easy play for an out. Clayton played Mauer perfectly, and what would be a single in many cases started a 1-2-3 inning for a Toronto victory.

The Blue Jays obviously did their homework. And of course, it's so easy to do today. Mauer seldom hits ground balls to the right of where Clayton was stationed. By positioning himself correctly, Royce Clayton is increasing his range without having to move a long distance for a ball. That's why, at some point, I'd love to get positioning information for players, so we can separate those player who can move long distances to get to balls vs. players who know where to stand before a ball is put in play.

With the win, the Blue Jays move over .500 and to 9 games behind Boston.

I'm starting to get some positive feedback on this Youkilis-Helton video.

Jason Michaels shows off his vertical leap as he skys over the fence in left to steal a home run from Craig Monroe. The Tigers picked up three straight hits, a triple by Guillen and singles by Rodriguez and Casey to cut the lead to 2-1. Monroe's shot would have put the Tigers up 4-2. Who says white men can't jump?

Hunter Pence makes a catch off Rich Aurilia at the 404 sign in centerfield. He was feeling for the wall, and thought he was close. He leaped for the ball, caught it, and looked like he thought he would crash against the padding. Instead, he fell over and hit his head in the seam where the wall angles in toward left. It was a scary crash, but Hunter held on and stayed in the game. If he was more aware of his position, he could have just kept going back to make the catch without leaping.

John Lowe reviews the Tigers outfield defense. It's a group effort:

The outfielders don't flip the ball to each other for outs like Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco do. But they consider their defense a collaboration.

"We communicate really well the whole game about (where) we're positioning ourselves," Ordonez said.

Monroe said: "Curtis makes sure that when he moves, he makes the rightfielder and leftfielder move. We talk about where to play the hitters. Curtis might look at me and say, 'What do you think?' We sometimes make the wrong decision, but when you do it as a group, it always feels better to know we were all committed to the same plan."

In the 1980s I used to sit in the centerfield bleachers at Fenway Park. I was always amazed that teams would come in that didn't do anything to position outfielders. No matter the hitter, they played everyone straight away. It's good to see the Tigers thinking about this and putting a plan into action.

Jacob Lous attended the Oakland game today and sends a word on Jason Kendall:

One of the craziest things to watch in baseball this year is the Jason Kendall shift. His name is announced, and three outfielders instantly start jogging - jogging - to a new spot. I've never seen anything like it.

LF and CF jog 20 feet to the right since he pulls the ball so seldomly, and the rightfielder moves in at least 15 feet. Part of the reason his BA is so low this year is that teams have figured out that a high percentage of his hits come on dinkers to right. With so few XBH, he rarely makes anyone pay by hitting it over their head, and the CF shades far enough to right to prevent a triple if it's hit over the RF's head.

Kendall broke up a no-hitter recently because of this shift.

The Braves are losing 8-0 in the bottom of the sixth, but Andrew Jones just channelled Willie Mays. On a ball to deep centerfield, Andruw ran straight back, looking over his right shoulder, and made a basket catch for the out. Here's the Mays catch. Both are pretty plays.

Orlando Cabrera clocks Reggie Willits in the jaw as they both go for a fly ball down the line in leftfield. Cabrera was calling for the ball but it's not clear that Willits did also. Cabrerra made the catch, and ran the ball in to prevent Blalock from scoring from third while Willits lay on the ground. Reggie stayed in the game.

Kevin Millwood re-injured his hamstring. He gave up a grand slam to Kotchman in the first, and the Angels lead 4-0 in the top of the third.

The Mariners turn two pretty plays in the top of the third. Phelps hits a bouncer in the hole that Betancourt backhands, jumps and throws to beat Phelps by a mile. He made the catch and throw in one smooth motion. Then Cano hit a nubber between the catcher and the pitcher toward third base. Ramirez was quick off the mound, made a strong throw but wide, but Sexson used his height to stretch, catch and hold the bag for the third out.

Brew Crew Ball notes a number of good defensive plays by the Brewers last night. They're not a great defense right now. The Hardball Times puts their DER at .694, tied for eighth in the NL. But THT's +/- rating assigns better numbers to the fielders than the pitchers, so in fact Milwaukee's defens is doing a pretty good job.

Earlier today I discussed a Bill James observation that Coco Crisp played an excellent centerfield over the last two weeks. I've looked that the probability of his putouts using last year's probabilistic model of range (PMR). Bill was right on.

This season, Crisp caught nine balls that weren't caught last year. There was a small sample size on each of those, so zero might not be accurate, but nine of those catches came in the last two weeks. Overall, he caught fifteen balls where the probability was less than or equal to .5, and 13 of those came from 4/23 on. If I had data on balls he didn't catch, we could do a complete analysis, but it sure looks like Bill's observation is true, that over the last two week Crisp is making difficult plays.

Bill James sent an e-mail to a few sabermetric friends this afternoon praising Coco Crisp. Seth Mnookin posted here. The main quote from James:

"It seems to me that the BIGGEST factor in our team's performance over the last week or so has been that Coco has been just unbelievable in center field...he's just catching EVERYTHING that looks like it might be trouble. There's been no gap in right center, no gap in left center, nothing getting over his head and nothing has been landing in front of him."

Seth gives an example from Friday night's game. I was able to obtain data on Crisp's putouts, and since April 23rd, Coco started seven games, collecting 34 putouts or about five a game. In his previous 15 starts, Coco recorded 41 putouts, or less than three per game. So over the last couple of weeks, Crisp is up about two putouts per game. There's not a lot of context here. I don't know if more balls are being hit in his general area. But I'm trying to get a handle on the degree of difficulty of the catches, and I'll post when I have something on that.

Update: Here's a chart of Crisp's putouts this season. Second base is at 180 degrees. (Click for a larger image.)

As you can see, he's catching balls close and far, and he's covering thirty degrees of the field.

A ball just dropped between Jason Kubel and Torii Hunter because Torii didn't do his job as a centerfielder and try to catch everything. He jogged after a ball he thought Kubel could catch, rather than running full speed and calling Kubel off. Kubel thought Hunter would get the ball, and it fell for a hit to put runners on first and second with one out.

Update: Santana gets a strikeout and ground out to end the inning. No score at the end of two in Detroit.

Manny Stiles documents the Pronk shift, used against Travis Hafner last night.

Nate Robertson picks up an error on a throw to first, because he faked out his own first baseman. Nate takes off his hat and is wiping his brow when he throws quickly to first. Casey, seeing Robertson apparently taking a moment, takes off his glove for an adjustment. The ball sails by, and Ozuna ends up at second. He's at third after a single, and ties the game on a sacrifice fly by Thome.

Manny made a bad throw earlier today, so I should I should praise a good defensive play as well. He just made a nice running catch over his shoulder as he ran back toward the leftfield wall, just on the edge of the warning track. The fact that Manny can make plays like that is one of the infuriating things about his defense. You get the feeling sometimes he doesn't try.

Gary Matthews, Jr. just made another great catch, robbing Michael Young of a home run at the centerfield fence. He's making the Rangers really miss him.

Update: Matthews then leads off the inning with a high chop that lands behind McCarthy for a single. A wild pitch and two singles later the Angels lead 1-0. Not surprisingly, Guerrero drove in the run with another hit against the Angels.

Update: The Angels score four in the first, ruining McCarthy's debut with Texas.

The Mets pitchers so far allowed a .348 OBA. That's high for a staff. But that number gets cut down by the number of ground double plays induced. Overall, New York pitchers allowed 16 Cardinals to reach base via a hit, walk or hit by pitch in sixty nine plate appearances. But if you remove the seven runners taken out on double plays, the effective OBA against the Mets is just .246, which is excellent.

On Baseball and the Reds is doing nice work with The Hardball Times defensive numbers, coming up with a way to convert THT's zone ratings to a +/- system. The Probabilistic Model of Range lends a hand. What's nice about this is that it looks like something that can be calculated during the season.

Correction: Fixed the link.

Emil Brown fights back against criticism of his defense:

Emil Brown glanced at the lineup card Sunday morning in the Royals' clubhouse, turned and observed to anyone within listening distance:

"I guess my defense is good enough for me to be in right field today."

The words came out as a challenge and borderline belligerent. The message was unmistakable. Brown has had it with those who label him "an adventure," or worse, in the outfield, on the bases or anywhere else.

His irritation centers on the media, first and foremost, but not exclusively. His fed-up list includes anyone trashing his skills, be they players or officials with other clubs -- or within the Royals' organization.

"I hear it all of the time," Brown said. "He's an adventure out there. Why? Because I'm actually trying to make plays happen?

"It isn't an adventure for (Twins outfielder) Torii Hunter when he dives for a ball and misses it. Then, it's, 'Oh, he just missed it.' He gets the benefit of the doubt because he's a Gold Glover. But it's an adventure when I do it."

Emil makes a good point. If you look at his defensive charts for 2006, Brown isn't a star defender, but he's basically making the plays. It doesn't matter how smooth you look catching the ball, as long as you make the catch.

A few days ago I introduced the idea of a probabilistic model of Ground into Double Plays (GDP). The probabilistic model of range just measures the ability to turn a ball into an out. For infielders, however, they're often asked to turn a ground ball into more than one out. The idea is to take a very specific situation; ground ball hit, man on first, less than two out and build a model that measures both plays made and GDP turned. With that model, we can ask which fielders perform well in that situation.

In building this model, I left parks out of the parameters. Basically, I thought the sample size would be too small if I left the parks in. This probably hurts the three teams that play of artifical turf.

Let's start by looking at the ability of shortstops to start a double play. The following table looks at three indexes for each fielder. The Plays Made (PM) index measures Plays Made / Predicted Plays Made. This measures the fielder's ability to turn a ball into an out. The GDP index does the same for ground double plays. Does the fielder start the expected number of double plays? And finally, an outs index that looks at the total number of outs accured to the fielder on these balls in play. It could be a fielder is making up for a lack of range by being really good at starting GDPs, or vice versa. Remember, this says nothing about the pivot man or the receiver at first base. In this context, we're only looking at the fielder who starts the play.

Probabilistic Model of GDPs, Ground Balls, Man on First, Less than Two Out, Shortstops Starting GDP (2006 Data Used to Build Model)

Player	Ground Balls In Play	Actual Plays Made	Predicted Plays Made	PM Index	Actual GDP	Predicted GDP	GDP Index	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Outs Index
Craig Counsell	183	40	32.14	124.44	32	21.23	150.72	72	53.38	134.89
Khalil Greene	219	53	45.27	117.08	31	28.68	108.07	84	73.95	113.59
Stephen Drew	121	26	23.68	109.82	17	14.29	118.92	43	37.97	113.25
Clint Barmes	283	56	53.75	104.18	42	33.03	127.16	98	86.78	112.92
Juan Uribe	274	58	50.75	114.29	34	31.85	106.75	92	82.60	111.38
Hanley Ramirez	352	71	67.58	105.05	49	43.18	113.48	120	110.76	108.34
Miguel Tejada	342	76	72.84	104.33	52	45.35	114.66	128	118.20	108.30
David Eckstein	298	61	56.74	107.50	38	34.92	108.81	99	91.67	108.00
Jack Wilson	290	64	62.47	102.45	46	39.39	116.77	110	101.86	107.99
Rafael Furcal	396	92	85.54	107.55	58	55.24	104.99	150	140.78	106.55
Bill Hall	228	55	50.83	108.21	33	32.90	100.30	88	83.73	105.10
Bobby Crosby	237	44	42.12	104.47	29	27.37	105.94	73	69.49	105.05
Alex Gonzalez	244	50	51.18	97.69	38	33.41	113.74	88	84.59	104.03
Jimmy Rollins	333	70	69.50	100.72	48	44.05	108.97	118	113.54	103.92
Carlos Guillen	303	65	64.24	101.18	45	41.63	108.10	110	105.87	103.90
Adam Everett	309	66	63.51	103.91	41	40.15	102.11	107	103.67	103.22
Ronny Cedeno	240	49	46.28	105.87	28	29.54	94.79	77	75.82	101.55
Michael Young	410	88	86.89	101.28	54	55.41	97.46	142	142.30	99.79
Jason A Bartlett	214	50	47.40	105.49	28	31.86	87.90	78	79.25	98.42
Jose Reyes	304	67	66.70	100.45	40	43.66	91.62	107	110.36	96.96
Omar Vizquel	297	64	65.48	97.73	42	44.00	95.45	106	109.49	96.82
John McDonald	170	25	26.52	94.26	18	17.91	100.50	43	44.43	96.77
Orlando Cabrera	319	58	60.40	96.03	38	39.02	97.38	96	99.42	96.56
Felipe Lopez	319	67	64.47	103.93	34	40.58	83.78	101	105.05	96.15
Angel Berroa	337	69	72.29	95.44	46	47.91	96.02	115	120.20	95.67
Jhonny Peralta	357	82	84.45	97.10	50	55.63	89.88	132	140.08	94.23
Alex Cora	127	30	32.94	91.07	21	22.16	94.76	51	55.10	92.56
Marco Scutaro	146	34	37.58	90.47	24	25.22	95.15	58	62.81	92.35
Edgar Renteria	347	63	67.67	93.10	39	43.19	90.30	102	110.86	92.01
Yuniesky Betancourt	350	60	66.40	90.36	43	46.02	93.44	103	112.42	91.62
Julio Lugo	182	32	35.29	90.68	21	23.66	88.74	53	58.95	89.90
Ben T Zobrist	131	25	28.09	89.00	17	18.93	89.82	42	47.02	89.33
Juan Castro	146	23	25.18	91.33	13	15.27	85.11	36	40.46	88.98
Derek Jeter	336	63	70.96	88.79	40	45.81	87.32	103	116.77	88.21
Royce Clayton	234	43	47.02	91.44	20	29.67	67.40	63	76.70	82.14
Aaron W Hill	108	16	20.33	78.70	7	12.82	54.62	23	33.14	69.39

Notice how few chances fielders get to turn GDPs. On the best teams, they get a little over two chances a game. Secondly, Arizona does a good job of picking out shortstops, as Counsell and Drew are near the top of the list. And if you don't like Derek Jeter, here's another area where you can pick on him.

The other thing that strikes me about the list is that shortstops who are good at making plays are also the ones good at starting double plays. Ronny Cedeno is unusual in that he's good at getting an out, but didn't do well starting DPs. Could it be that Todd Walker was just a poor pivot man? I hope further research using these models will help answer that question.

Dan Rosenheck looks to see if Manny Ramirez's defense is hurting his value to the Red Sox (full disclosure, I was consulted on the article):

The truth most likely lies in the middle: the average of the P.B.P. systems' results for Ramírez is 15 to 20 runs below average. That's enough to take a significant bite out of his value. If his hitting begins to deteriorate this season (he turns 35 in May), and his base running remains poor (subtracting another two runs or so), he is likely to be worth about as much in 2007 as Oakland's up-and-coming Nick Swisher. In other words, an All-Star, but not a franchise player, and certainly not worth anywhere near his $20 million salary.

I put the cost of Manny in left field at no more than 16 runs in 2006, whereas Dan believes that the minimum. Dan is also basing Manny's worth on Ramriez's worth on his continuing at that level of defense and his offense declining due to age. But of the three years I've measured Ramirez, 2006 was by far the worst reading I've seen on him. Manny complained of a bad right knee in 2006. If that's better and he becomes more mobile, I suspect the number of balls he gets to goes up as well.

So I'm not quite as dire as Dan in assessing the worth of Ramirez. He a great player in his mid 30's, and I'm not surprised he is showing signs of decline.

Miguel Tejada took complaints about his lack of range seriously this off season. He's come to camp in excellent shape and is actually working on increasing the area he can cover:

Shiner said Tejada's workouts have been focused on improving his foot speed and movement. During one drill, Tejada shuffles back and forth between cones as Shiner rolls baseballs to him. The exercise is designed to maximize the steps to get to the ball, simulating the act of fielding a baseball while moving left or right. Team officials have been pleased with the range Tejada has shown thus far in camp.

"He is moving around a lot better than he did last year," Perlozzo said. "When his knee was bad [last year], I knew there was nothing that I can do about that. ... It was an up-and-down year for him defensively for multiple reasons."

Teammates said Tejada got a bad rap for his defense last season, considering that he was nursing knee and hamstring injuries the first couple of months of the season. Tejada did make 19 errors, tying his lowest total for a full season in his career. But it was his range that was often criticized by scouts and baseball officials.

"He wasn't fully healthy early last year and yet he still went out there and did all he could. Of course, your range is going to be limited, but most guys wouldn't have even been out there," Gomez said. "He got healthy soon thereafter, and I thought he was great. I don't think anybody could deny that. He got this label, where someone says one thing about range and all of a sudden you don't have range. It sticks. I think it is really unfair."

We'll see if his PMR improves at the end of the season.

Via Dodger Thoughts, there's a new trick play in baseball:

Born in the imagination of a minor-league pitching coach, carried from Class A to the brink of the big leagues by an over-achieving, side-arming right-hander, "The 3-2" is a pick-off move that is challenging umpires at least as much as it is eliminating baserunners.

Footage of the move, captured accidentally Friday night by a Venezuelan film crew stationed behind home plate at Surprise Stadium, has been carried on compact disc from Arizona to the Major League Baseball offices in New York City. Duplicates will go out to umpiring supervisors and trickle into the minor leagues.

The pickoff play begins with the bases loaded or runners at second and third. The pitcher fakes the throw to third, then allows that momentum to carry him - 270 degrees counter-clockwise - into a throw to second base. It works best with the bases loaded, when it comes disguised as the more familiar third-to-first pickoff.

I can't find a link to the video on Google or YouTube, so if someone finds it let me know.

Two views of Kenji Johjima's defense are offered by Prospect Insider and Detect-o-Vision.

Range isn't a good measure of defense for catchers, but PMR is neutral on Johjima. That says to me he moves as well as most catchers. It's a pretty small sample size, however, as you can see from his charts.

It looks like the Angels are on the verge of a huge improvement in their outfield defense. Not only is Matthews going to take pressure of Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson's feet are healthy again:

But the Angels' veteran left fielder also was somewhat offended by media reports framing the Matthews signing as one that would ease the burden on Anderson and right fielder Vladimir Guerrero.

"I've heard that several times this winter, and I don't really know what it means," Anderson said. "I don't think I've been a liability out there, other than the fact I haven't been able to play. I know I took a lot of heat last year because I played hurt. I should have just not played. I wouldn't have taken any heat for that."

An inflamed arch in his left foot hindered Anderson for most of 2006 and contributed to knee and lower-back problems. He was relegated to a career-high 45 games at designated hitter, but in 94 games in the outfield, Anderson didn't commit an error.

Vlad was actually okay on fly balls last year. He basically performed up to expectations. It was Anderson who needed help in the gaps. If Garret's feet are indeed better, we should see good fielding across the board in the Angels' outfield.

I'll be attending Andy Andres Sabermetrics 101 class tonight for the lecture on defense. Required reading this week was the PMR archive.

Ron Washington drilled into the Texas pitching staff the importance of fielding their position, using the Detroit Tigers World Series performance as an example. The pitchers then went through their drills:

And so for about 45 minutes on Sunday, Rangers' pitchers shuttled through three different stations.

At one, they fielded slow-rolling grounders and practiced getting into throwing position without ever releasing a ball. At a second station, they fielded hard-hit ground balls. At the third, they raced to first to be prepared for tosses when the first baseman had to make the play.

None of it was new. It's a drill that goes on in every camp for at least 10 days.

Often that is the end of it. It may be for the Rangers, too, but during his interview, Washington brought up the idea of occasionally taking defensive practice during the season.

It's amazing to me that pitchers don't do defensive drills during the season. Once a week for 45 minutes, would likely be good for all of them.

It looks like Ken Griffey, Jr. is going to start the season in centerfield for the Reds. Red Reporter disagrees.

Why is there so much dismissal of Chris Denorfia? The Reds don't seem to take him seriously, which is bizarre to me because you'd think he'd fit the profile of what Krivsky likes in a player. His effort level is off the charts, and he's a good defender.

Denorfia owns a very good minor league OBA and a good major league OBA for a good defensive centerfielder. He's 27 for the 2007 season, and should be at the top of his game. He'll likely get on base at a .360 clip and catch the ball. I agree with Red Reporter, it's an obvious move, especially given Griffey's poor range.

John Walsh delivers his outfield arm rankings for 2006 at The Hardball Times. I especially like the graph he includes, showing where the outfielders lie on a runners held vs. runners killed basis. The upper right quadrant is fascinating. It's the quadrant where fielders are good at both, but within that quadrant an increase in an ability to kill a runner leads to a decrase in the ability to hold a runner. So no one comes close to being great at both.

Felix Pie's defense is the reason the Cub Reporter thinks the rookie will get more time to develop than Corey Patterson:

Is Felix Pie ready, then? Probably not, if ready means doing much more than flashing his offensive potential. But great athletes learn to hit, largely because their defense buys them the time that Jason Dubois won't have. Meanwhile Pie can anchor center field, which is something, not nothing. Cub fans in particular might have a problem with this patient approach because it didn't work with Corey Patterson. We waited and waited and he never got better.

The problem with Corey Patterson, I would argue, was not so much his slow progress as a hitter but the fact that his defense couldn't carry him, get him over the rough spots, ease the pressure. Bottom line, he was not a great fielder, and it's a little mysterious why, since he could run and he could throw. But the catching part sometimes eluded him. Midway through his tenure with the Cubs, I started asking myself, if he's a great fielder, how come he never makes great plays? My teenage son used to put together homemade highlight reels, and once he asked me to sit down to watch a collection of Patterson web-gems. I said, okay, but look closely and you'll see that in every catch his left elbow is bent. And it was true, both when he dove and when he leaped. There was something tentative about it. The sort of thing that Juan Pierre did ten times last year, where you lay flat out in a dive, parallel to the ground, arm and glove fully extended-Patterson didn't do that. He lacked the physical commitment, or courage, that defines an athlete. Patterson was the image of an athlete. He may have been born to play a great athlete in a movie. But he wasn't one. Several scouts out there with egg on their faces should be implementing a new Patterson Rule: don't say a guy has five tools until you've seen him do something special in the field. Patterson is partly a victim of bad scouting (he said, with great hindsight).

It may be six, seven years before we know what kind of hitter Pie is going to become, especially in terms of power numbers. But it will only take about a month to tell if he's the real deal as an athlete. If he is, then the comparisons with Patterson should stop right there.

Here's my latest video, a quick look at Todd Helton and Kevin Youkilis fielding grounders.

Here's the full set of charts for Helton and Youkilis.

Over the weekend, Alfonso Soriano agreed to play centerfield, opening up a spot for Cliff Floyd on the Cubs roster.

The Floyd deal, which might be completed this week, has been in the works since the winter meetings, but the Cubs weren't sure whether they would add Floyd or a veteran center fielder to hold down the fort until prospect Felix Pie is ready at midseason. Floyd, a former Thornwood star, is expected to serve as a fourth outfielder, giving left fielder Matt Murton and right fielder Jacque Jones regular rest.

So does this push Pie back in the depth chart? Or will the Cubs look to make a trade once Pie is ready to play?

Lee Panas combines four measures of range into one by treating them as four voting systems and averaging the ranks. We used to do this sort of combination when I worked in information retrieval and we wanted to combine the results from multiple search engines. In general, it's a good way to combine various opinions.

I'd like to explore positioning as part of the Probabilistic Model of Range. One thing that I believe would be easy to record is the direction and distance the fielder moved to get to a ball. The direction could be coded using the digits 1-9 as follows:

1	2	3
4	5	6
7	8	9

Where 5 would be straight at the fielder, 8 would be in front, 4 to the fielder's right, etc. What I'd like to get opinions on is if the X and Y axis should be fixed for all fielders or float depending on the position. For centerfielder and pitchers, the X axis would be a line that went through home plate and second base, while the Y axis would go through third and first. But for a shortstop, the X axis could go through second and third base, with the Y axis perpendicular to that. In the case of a fixed axes through 2nd-home and 3rd-first, a ball in the hole that's fielded by the short stop would be coded a 7. In the second case, where we adjust the axes to the fielder, it would be a 4, since the fielder moved to his right. My feeling is the second way is superior. However, with so many shifts being employed now, which often put the shortstop on the second base side of the bag, the fixed axes approach might be more accurate. I'd like to hear your opinions on the matter.

Baseball Digest Daily interviews Bill James on the 2006 Fielding Bible Awards. Here he talks about Mike Lowell:

Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air.

The interview is definitely worth the read.

It's time once again for you to be the scout and help Tangotiger judge defensive ability. I believe this is the third year Tom conducted this survey, using the knowledge of fans to rate the defensive ability of players. The more input he gets, the better his results. So if you watch baseball, go to his site and take part.

There is an enormous amount of untapped knowledge here. There are 70 million fans at MLB parks every year, and a whole lot more watching the games on television. When I was a teenager, I had no problem picking out Tim Wallach as a great fielding 3B, a few years before MLB coaches did so. And, judging by the quantity of non-stop standing ovations Wallach received, I wasn't the only one in Montreal whose eyes did not deceive him. Rondel White, Marquis Grissom, Larry Walker, Andre Dawson, Hubie Brooks, Ellis Valentine. We don't need stats to tell us which of these does not belong.

WasWatching reviews the botched popup that made the Orioles blowout a slightly larger blowout.

In the YES replays, you clearly see Jeter moving his mouth when the pop is in the air. It appears that he's saying "I got it!" a few times. In the same replays, you never see A-Rod open his mouth, at all.

Rodriguez was clearly planted under the ball. He was in perfect position to catch it. Jeter had to range to his right to get towards the ball. I would offer that Derek had to move around 10 feet, away from his position on the pitch, towards the foul line, to get to where the ball was going to land.

Jeter went behind A-Rod and their gloves bumped as they both reached up for the ball. That appeared to be the only serious contact between the two players. It seemed as if their gloves met just as the ball was going into the pocket of A-Rod's mitt - and that knocked the ball loose.

The rule on the Yankees should be that Jeter catches all pop ups, even the ones hit directly at another fielder, to make up for all the ground balls that go through the shortstop position. :-)

The Tigers are up 3-0 after three innings, but the bottom of the third ended with Dmitri Young thrown out at the plate by Nelson Cruz. Young was at second with two out when Pudge Rodriguez singled to right. Gene Lamont waved Young around third. Cruz fired home, and Gerald Laird waited a good two second before he needed to make the tag. It's not often you see someone thrown out at the play by 20 feet.

Correction: I had the wrong numbers this morning. A program I thought was computing GDPs was computing something else. Sorry for the confusion. This post is correct.

The Arizona Diamondback turned five double plays last night, setting a team record.

The Diamondbacks turned a club-record five double plays - three 5-4-3s, a 4-6-3 and a 1-4-3 - as Batista was able to pick up win No. 10 despite allowing the Giants to begin three innings with back-to-back singles.

Arizona ranks third in GDPs induced:

Defense	GDP
KC	115
COL	112
OAK	110
ARI	110
STL	107
HOU	105
FLA	104
LAD	103
PHI	102
TEX	101
ATL	100
PIT	100
BAL	99
CLE	99
BOS	94
SEA	94
NYA	93
TB	93
DET	92
CHA	85
MIL	84
SF	82
TOR	81
LAA	78
SD	77
MIN	76
NYN	75
CIN	74
CHN	71
WSH	67

In case you're wondering if it's all Orlando Hudson, the team ranked eighth in 2005 with 140.

Sean Brennan at the New York Daily News notes the good defensive play by the Yankees yesterday.

In the third inning, it was Guiel's turn. With one out and runners again on the corners, Paul Konerko hit a liner to right field for what looked like a single. But Guiel fired a strike to Derek Jeter at second to get a rare 9-6 force-out on Jim Thome for the inning's second out. Though a run scored on the play, pulling the Chisox within 3-2, the play slammed the door on a possible big inning for Chicago.

"Once I saw Jim break back to first base, I knew (I had a shot)," Guiel said. "That ball was hit to me so hard I knew I had a play."

The Big Lead provides video of Gary Matthews over-the-wall catch.

An excellent piece of research here by the Baseball Crank on how great pitching teams are almost always supported by great defenses.

Sheldon Ocker details the mental collaspe of the Cleveland defense in the third inning last night.

I don't hear many calls for Eric Wedge's head. It's seems to me, however, when a team doesn't have its head in the game, that's a good time to blame the manager. I'm interested in Cleveland fans take on Wedge as a manager of people, rather than the game.

Manny Ramirez drives a ball to the 399 foot mark in the left center at Yankee Stadium, and Melky Cabrera leaps and catches the ball, preventing Manny from tying the game. The more I see this youngster play, the more I like him. He's selective at the plate. In the outfield, he can run, catch and throw. His scoring on the wild pitch last night showed his base running ability. The more he plays, the less it looks like the Yankees will need Sheffield next year.

Cano, Wang, Phillips and Cabrera remind me of the production of the Yankees farm system in the mid 1990s.

Update: Rivera retires the side easily in the ninth, throwing just five pitches to get the side 1-2-3. The 2-1 victory puts the Yankees 1 1/2 games up in the AL East.

Melky Cabrera just scored from first on a wild pitch. With Giambi at the plate and one out, Beckett throws a wild pitch that doesn't get too far away from Varitek. Cabrera hesitates, then starts to second. Varitek tries to throw to Lowell who is covering second, and throws the ball into shallow right. Since no one is covering third, Cabrera runs for that base. As he approaches third, he sees Varitek running up the line to cover third. Melky decides to race Jason to the plate and easily wins to score the first run of the game. It's a wild pitch and an error on the throw by Varitek. The Yankees lead 1-0 after one.

Nick Piecoro notes the Diamondbacks are leading the majors in turning double plays, and are on a pace to shatter the major league record. Hudson, one of the best defenders in the game last year, is benefiting from Counsell's knowledge of the hitters:

That has a lot to do with positioning, and Counsell regularly passes along some insights to Hudson during innings. Hudson said that several times this season Counsell has all but predicted a ground ball going to second base.

"Before every pitch, he's got everything thought out," Hudson said.

The downside of breaking a record for double plays, of course, is that there are a lot of batters reaching base. But the double plays turned effectively reduced the OBA of the Diamondbacks opposition from .344 to .312. In Bill James book, The Managers, Bill notes that Casey Stengel always tried to put a good double play combination around second base. He didn't mind pitchers who walked a lot of batters, as long as they got ground balls that could be turned into double plays. It's quite possible Arizona adopted that philosophy.

Update: I didn't know if the book was still in print, but Amazon sells it (click on the link above). For some reason, it wasn't as popular as other James books, but I think it's his best job of combining the history and strategy of the game and should be read for the Stengel section if nothing else.

Rastronomicals at Crawfish Boxes notes how much the Houston defense helped Andy Pettitte earn the shutout today.

Tim Dahlberg noticed Barry Bonds' shabby play in left field yesterday:

He couldn't stop while lumbering after a foul ball fly in the sixth inning, bonked into the wall, teeter-tottered over and landed upside-down in the stands. Two innings later he couldn't run down a lazy looper near the line and let it go. It was charitably ruled a triple.

Any other major league left fielder gets that ball. Heck, half the fans in the stands might have had a shot at it.

Up by nine runs, it wasn't a big deal. In close games, it's going to be a tougher call.

It strikes me that any ball hit to Bond's left can turn into a double. Hitters need to start thinking that if Bonds has to move at all, turning on the after burner can get you to second safely. Watching yesterday, Barry has a real problem transitioning from the grass to the rubberized warning track. Get a ball near there and a speedster might have an inside the park home run.

Barry Bonds just tumbled into the stands after going after a foul fly ball. He was running toward it when he hit the warning track and tried to slow down. The ball dropped, but Bonds couldn't stop, hit the wall and fell over. He limped back to left field.

As a commentor to the previous post pointed out, Bonds is playing more due to the injury to Alou leaving the team short-handed. But that play is a perfect example of why you want to get Bonds out of sure wins or losses early. A play in the field can easily take out his knees. He's due up in the bottom of the sixth.

Kerry Robinson can't hit, and if yesterday's game is any indication, he doesn't make up for the lack of offense with his glove.

The Royals managed to work around one misplay Sunday by center fielder Kerry Robinson. A second one, though, led to the winning run in a 3-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field.

Mistake one:

Robinson's earlier misplay came in the fourth, when he misjudged a fly ball by Crede so badly that second-base umpire Gerry Davis initially signaled a homer.

It was a drive deep to the left of center. Robinson raced back and climbed the wall. Except the ball didn’t go that far. It hit the warning track and bounced over the wall.

Mistake two, the one that cost them the game:

The White Sox had two outs and none on in the eighth inning when Robinson, overshifted to right field against left-handed pull hitter Jim Thome, couldn't corral a high, slicing fly toward left center.

The ball fell for a double when Robinson made a lamentably late diving attempt after exchanging you-or-me looks with left fielder Emil Brown.

"It was a situation," Robinson said, "where he thought I said, 'I got it,' and I thought he said, 'I got it.' Then it was too late. I had to dive for a ball I really shouldn't have had to dive for.

"We both could have had it, but it’s my fault because I'm the center fielder."

He doesn't get on base, he doesn't hit for power, he doesn't catch the ball. Why is he in the majors?

Josh Bard allowed four passed balls tonight as he teamed up with Tim Wakefield in a 7-1 loss to Cleveland. That gives Bard 10 passed balls on the season, seven more than any other catcher in the league. Last year, Bengie Molina led the majors with 10. In this century, only Jason LaRue has as many as 20 in a season. No one's had over 30 since Gino Petralli in 1987. Bard's on a pace for 60.

Randy Winn just doubled up the gap in right center. Shawn Green managed to just cut off the ball, but he needed to backhand the roller and ended up turned toward the outfield wall. He then tried to flip the ball to Byrnes so Eric could throw it in, but Byrnes was ducking so he'd be out of the way of the throw. The ball goes over Byrnes' head, and Fassaro and Winn both come around to score. It's 4-0 Giants in the top of the second.

Manny Ramirez just grounded out to Yuniesky Betancourt. Every time I've seen Betancourt throw in this game, I thought he sent the ball sailing high. Then as the camera pans, I realize Richie Sexson is playing first, and Yuniesky is just throwing the ball chest high.

Friar Faithful looks at the pitching lines from yesterday's blowout in San Diego and finds the defense at fault, rather than the pitching:

How did we get the result we got then? Two factors: Awful fielding and bad luck. A lot of both, actually. We can only hope for a change in the latter, but the former we can expect to improve. Cameron's return from the DL will vastly improve the outfield. Dave Roberts cannot play a credible centerfield and I really can't say enough about how much I detest seeing Eric Young in the starting lineup. I won't wish injury on anyone, but we have a better chance of that taking playing time from undeserving veterans than we do of Bochy doing it.

Josh Bard and Tim Wakefield failed to connect tonight. The Rangers found Wakefield hittable, touching him for seven hits and seven runs. Adding to the problem was new catcher Josh Bard, charged with three passed balls.

Vicente Padilla benefits from all this, as he's throwing a two-hitter through five. It's 7-0 Rangers in the bottom of the fifth.

Correction: Fixed spelling of Vicente.

Via Seymour Ruskin, Phil Allard of NYYFans is writing a column on the Yankees for WCBS Radio in New York this year. Congratulations Phil! However, in an otherwise good column about the Yankees defense, Phil succumbs to Jeter myopia:

As much as I believe in most forms of objective sabermetric philosophy, such as the all important OBP and the shunning of “productive outs,” I have to disagree here. Yes, Jeter does not have great range, but he adds dimensions of worth to his team that defies quantitative analysis, and there ain’t no stat geek that can tell me otherwise. I can’t let statistical “objectivity” act as a blinding agent to what my eyes can clearly see. (That sound you hear is members of the saber community firing up their keyboards to take pithy shots at me.)

You remember that catch Jeter made against the Red Sox on that glorious first night of July in 2004, when he risked his body by crashing in the stands to save the game? That doesn’t count in sabermetric measurement because it was a foul ball. Remember “The Play” against Oakland in the 2001 playoffs that saved the series for the Yanks when Jeter intuitively ran to a spot where he had no business being and then made the perfect cut-off throw home? Aside from the assist, there is no quantitative measurement of such a play, nor are there useful measurements for his amazing skills as a cut-off man.

Jeter’s value is truly intangible, and he inspires teammates with his leadership. He belongs at shortstop on my team, but let the arguments rage on. The debates are fun.

If his value is intangible, then it doesn't exist. The most important thing a shortstop does is field ground balls. Jeter does that poorly. You know, when you can't find anything good to say about a catcher, you throw out that he's a great handler of pitchers. When you can't say anything good about Jeter's defense, you point to all the things that aren't measured well, as if being a great cutoff man or making a couple of great foul catches is going to make up for all the balls going through for hits.

Jeter is the Yankees shortstop because he ranks high among shortstops when you combine offense and defense. In other words, his offense is making up for his defensive shortcomings. At some point, that may not be true. But even then, the Yankees can't move him from the position. Like Gehrig before him, no one will be able to tell him he can't play. Jeter defines the Yankees of this era. His offense, his leadership, his desire to win makes him the icon of this team. When Jeter leaves shortstop, it will be his idea alone.

Joe Hamrahi interviews me about the Probabilistic Model of range.

Playing first base and hitting was just too much for Javy Lopez, so he'll be starting the season as the Orioles DH and backup catcher.

"I actually wanted it. I guess the fact that I was working so much at first base during spring training, I kind of (cut) back my hitting," Lopez said. "Sam Perlozzo came up to me and told me, 'It would be a good idea just to start you as a DH so you could get your timing back as a hitter.' I totally agree with it."

It looks like Millar and Conine will get more time in the field than expected.

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It looks like The Fielding Bible is making it into a few front offices. And not all the players agree with the conclusions of the book. Here's Michael Young:

Said Young: "I know I did my job well. I know myself, and I know how good I am and how good I can be. I know I'm not there yet.

"What the book says means absolutely nothing to me. It's easy to dismiss because there have been a lot of books and reports that said I wouldn't keep hitting .300."

It's good to see people are paying attention to this type of research.

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The Royals understand their defense was horrible last year and are trying to take steps to correct that:

And so on. Defense is the theme here at spring training. And defense cuts to the baseball heart for Buddy Bell. He was a great defensive third baseman, a six-time Gold Glove winner. He knows the Royals need their own identity. They’re not fast or particularly strong. They will not win games by outslugging teams or by blowing them away with nine innings of overpowering fastballs.

So he wants the identity to be a team that will play great defense. He thinks that gets the Royals going back to where they need to go. And I agree with him.

“I’m not really into errors and all that stuff,” he says. “For me, it’s about range. Take away hits. Make the good plays. Turn the big double play. We’re going to have to do that this year. I think defense is unbelievably important for us, more than it is for a lot of other teams. I think we will be a lot better.

“And I’ll be honest with you: It won’t be enough for us just to make the routine plays. I mean, obviously, it starts there. We have to go beyond our limits every once in a while. We need to make the great plays to get out of tough situations. I don’t know if we can do that. But we have to. It’s that simple, really.”

I wonder how much the defense affected Zack Greinke? Maybe all those balls that should be outs just drove him over the edge. A better defensive team might bring him back.

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Roch Kubatko is blogging for the Baltimore Sun. He likes Corey Patterson's defense in right. Nice to see his blog also allows comments, and he seems to interact with the fans.

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Javy Lopez had a good first game at first base:

In addition to his alert play in the fourth inning, he hauled in a foul pop, fielded successive hard grounders in the third and scooped up a roller while the top half of a broken bat was heading in his direction. He finished with 10 putouts, two assists and no errors.

"That breaks the ice. Now, next game I should feel a little more comfortable," Lopez said. "It's a hard position to play. You have to pay attention on every single play. But it's fun, I enjoyed it, and thank God I wasn't bad."

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The Washington Post chronicles the two players in camp together:

The theoretically awkward issue of Alfonso Soriano's presence in the Washington Nationals' spring training camp alongside veteran Jose Vidro, the Nationals' incumbent second baseman, became a practical one Friday. In the first full-squad workout of the spring, Vidro took grounders and performed drills with the rest of the starting infielders, while Soriano worked out with an infield group made up of mostly minor leaguers. Later, in the clubhouse, they sat three lockers apart, eating their lunches without interacting.

One solution that no one talks about is moving Soriano to shortstop. Yes, he'll likely be the worst defensive shortstop in the league. The Nationals can live with that. Neither Guzman nor Clayton is any great shakes at short, how much worse can Soriano do? He'll hit a lot better than either of those two players. The other advantage is, if he's moved to short, it will be seen as a defensive promotion, while the move to left is clearly a defensive demotion.

Soriano created 93 runs last year. Clayton created 55, Guzman 26. At worst, Soriano is going to be 10 runs worse that those two at shortstop. It's not a great solution, but it's one that probably improves the team overall.

Mike Cameron spent the winter conditioning himself for the big Padres ballpark:

"(Going to right field) was definitely a big transition," he said. "I don't care what anybody says, it's not easy. But I learned something playing there."

Cameron will be back in his comfort zone with the Padres, who acquired him in a Nov. 18 trade for Xavier Nady. To prepare his body for Petco's spacious outfield, the 33-year-old Cameron cut back on weightlifting and concentrated on core and leg exercises that emphasize speed and explosiveness.

"I feel lighter on my feet," said Cameron, who ran sprints with left fielder Dave Roberts after batting practice Monday. "Usually I feel sluggish this time of year."

Maybe Cameron recognizes in this park his legs are a more valuable asset. Mike was also asked about other centerfielders:

More than a great athlete, Cameron is an avid student of his position. Asked to name the best center fielder he has seen, he pondered the question before offering an unorthodox list that included Paul Blair, Devon White, Gary Pettis and Eric Davis.

"Baseball has been part of my life since I was 4 or 5 years old," he said. "I've always tried to model myself after certain players."

I don't quite see what's so unorthodox about that list. I'd probably include Andruw Jones, but all of those players could go get the ball.

Alan Schwarz looks at the state of research in catcher's defense. According to his article, it seems that catchers don't make that much of a difference, at least in terms of ERA.

Keith Woolner, the director of research for Baseball Prospectus, developed a more sophisticated Catcher E.R.A. several years ago to assuage those and other concerns. But he still found something remarkable: A catcher could indeed appear to have a major effect on his pitchers' E.R.A., but that effect often reversed itself the next year. Catcher E.R.A.'s bounced around as if at random. Although that doesn't prove the absence of true catching talent, it suggests that whatever exists does not manifest itself to a detectable degree.

"Something that's ability is relatively consistent, like home run power," Woolner said. "You can be pretty sure that if Adam Dunn hit more home runs than Juan Pierre last year, he will next year, too. But when you look at catchers who prevent runs well one year, they are not more likely to prevent runs well the next year. They're just as likely to be bad. It's really not what I expected to see.

"We're told that catchers have a real impact on the final score, but it doesn't show up. This is an exaggeration, but compared to the batters and the pitchers, the catcher is just a guy who makes sure the ball doesn't go to the backstop."

I'll need to look up Woolner's work on the subject. It strikes me that sample sizes in one season (especially for the backup) are responsible for the randomness. What's clear is that figuring out the catcher's contribution to ERA is a complicated, chaotic system. It has to do with the pitchers caught, the opponents, the overall defense that day. I'd be very wary of making this conclusion:

Perhaps some teams are sensing this. Bengie Molina, considered a fine defensive catcher for the Angels, received little attention in the free-agent marketplace and signed for only a year with the Blue Jays. And Mike Piazza, who was thought to be retiring a glove many considered as useful as Michael Jackson's, was signed by the Padres — to be their starting catcher.

Jorge Posada and Randy Johnson are working on improving their roles as battery mates. I'm not sure I understand what Randy means here, however:

"I think it's important that you and the catcher communicate in between innings and know what is going well for you out there and what's not," Johnson said. "I think it's important that the catcher realizes that even if you think something is going well, and it really isn't, but you are convinced it is, that he still try to get you through the game. A lot of times in the first half (of last season) things weren't going well for me. I tried getting through it and it was a struggle at times."

It sounds to me that Randy is looking for positive feed back, and maybe Jorge was offering negative comments last year. Saying negative things in a positive way is often tough to do, but it's a good skill to develop.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff likes the way the Phillies defense is shaping up for 2006.

David Gassko pits the various Range ratings against UZR in two articles. One, published at The Hardball Times is an overview, while the one on Statistically Speaking does the math. Thanks to David for bringing all this information together!

Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts pens a piece for Sports Illustrated on the latest in defensive statistics. A big thank-you to Jon for mentioning the Probabilistic Model of Range.

Jose Vidro joins Alfonso Soriano in not wanting to move from second base.

Soriano has said he won't change positions, and Vidro said he won't either.

Soriano "is a tremendous plus for the team. But I'm a bit confused about what can happen if he doesn't want to play left field," Vidro told the local daily, El Nuevo Dia for Tuesday's editions.

Maybe the Nationals can think outside the box to satisfy both players. Instead of the shortstop moving for a shift on a left-handed batter, just bring in Soriano from left. The team doesn't expect a lefty to go the other way if there's a shift on, and this will give Alfonso a chance to play the infield, especially against Barry Bonds. Of course, the winner of a Celebrity Death Match works too.

The Yankees are are saying Joe Torre was misquoted and they never had plans to move A-Rod or Jeter to centerfield:

Cashman said he woke up yesterday morning and was "shocked" when he learned of the story. He said he immediately called Torre to ask about the quotes and was told by the manager that the story was "untrue."

"He said, 'I didn't say that,'" Cashman said. "He told me that he was asked by the reporter if A-Rod and Jeter could handle, athletically, playing center field and he answered that they certainly could. But he also said (to the reporter) that the best athlete on the team is probably Mariano (Rivera) and, along those lines, he'd probably be the best player to go out there. If you've ever watched him shagging (flies) during batting practice you can see that. But those comments didn't appear in the story.

"Either way," Cashman added, "it's not something that we've ever discussed."

So Cashman does his best Capt. Renault, implying that the reporter is a stooge:

The writer of the story, Larry Fine, said he taped the interview with Torre and had no doubts about the accuracy of his quotes. He said he believes he fairly represented Torre's statements and did not overstate the Yanks' interest in pursuing such a plan.

So, Mr. Fine can settle this whole thing by posting the audio tape. It doesn't have to be ones word against another. Just post the tape on the internet.

It's too bad the Yankees aren't seriously considering the move. I still think it's a good way to improve the team's defense.

The Yankees are thinking about moving Jeter or A-Rod to centerfield:

Torre said he has considered the merits of converting either shortstop Jeter or AL MVP Rodriguez, who has been playing third base since joining the Yankees, but has not raised the subject with either of his star players.

"We've thought about it," Torre said. "We just haven't made a commitment to that. We haven't broached it with the shortstops."

They should have moved Jeter to center when they traded for A-Rod.

So how about this? The Yankees move Jeter to center (he's the best fly chaser), A-Rod back to short and sign Bill Mueller to play third? Whoever DHs or Robinson Cano would be the least productive hitter in the lineup.

Dave Collins is fighting the defensive spectrum in Colorado.

Colorado Rockies coach Dave Collins was the man in charge when Matt Holliday made the conversion from a third baseman to a left fielder. He oversaw the move of Brad Hawpe from first base to right field.

Now he's working with Ryan Shealy in his attempt to learn to play right field in addition to first base.

Moves from first to any other position are rare. Usually you play first base because you can't play at any other spot in the field. If Collins can take two first basemen and turn them into outfielders, that's quite an accomplishment.

John Flaherty gets the start tonight behind the plate instead of Jorge Posada. This breaks a streak of 67 post-season starts by Posada.

Still, Flaherty has caught all but one of Johnson's last 22 starts, beginning when the Big Unit tossed seven shutout innings against St. Louis on June11. Johnson has gone 12-2 with a 3.29 ERA in games caught by Flaherty this season, and 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA while working with Posada. That includes a 10-2 loss to Detroit on July 1, the last time the Yanks' longtime catcher has called signals for the veteran ace.

I had a discussion with a friend of mine about this the other day. He didn't see how you could start an offensive millstone like Flaherty in the playoffs. He also thought the sample sizes were too small to be able to discern an actual difference between the ability of the catchers to affect a pitcher.

I disagree. If you believe the difference is caused by Flaherty, then he's saved the Yankees over 25 earned runs in around 21 games. Posada isn't that great a hitter that he's going to produce that much offense over 25 games. Posada created 71 runs in 142 games played, or 1/2 a run per game. For all intents and purposes, we'll give John a 0 for runs created. That means the Yankees are losing 1/2 a run offensively, but gaining over a run defensively with Flaherty behind the plate. That seems like the right trade off to me.

It also explains why catchers are not known for their hitting. Catchers can have a huge defensive impact on the game, and that's often worth more than the best offense.

I'd also like to note that this is nothing new. Torre often started Girardi in the post season in 1998 and 1999, even though Posada was clearly the superior offensive player. I trust Torre's recognition of defensive talent behind the plate, and he made the right moves in each case.

David Gassko at The Hardball Times has a new measure of range, BBARF. I have not had time to digest it yet, but there's a discussion going on at the Baseball Primer section of Baseball Think Factory.

A rare bad play by Aaron Rowand leads to the Indians tying the game in the 9th. With one out and a man on first, Victor Martinez hit a fly ball to center that fooled the White Sox speedster. He started in on the ball, then raced back but the shot was over his head for a double. Belliard grounded out to tie the game, and the Indians have a man on third with two out for Broussard.

Update: Jenks blows the save but not the game. The White Sox get a chance to win in the bottom of the inning, still tied at 6.

The Toronto Blue Jays are using the classic Giambi shift with a twist. Instead of moving everyone toward first base, the Blue Jays put the shortstop in short right between the first and second basemen. The announcers gave the reason for the manuver as shortstop Adams having more range than second baseman Menechino.

I wish I had stayed up to see this double play:

Sexson grounded into a double play, second baseman Kennedy to center fielder Izturis to first baseman Erstad, Ibanez out.

Mike Scioscia did some defensive maneuvering in the bottom of the ninth, and it almost worked. The Mariners put men on first and third with no one out and Richie Sexson up. Mike replaced Steve Finley with Maicer Izturis and brought him in as a fifth infielder. It's a brilliant move as they not only hold the runner at third, but turn the double play. Scioscia then walks Beltre to pitch to the light hitting Greg Dobbs, who singles in the winning run to prevent the Angels from extending their lead over the Athletics. Sometimes you do everything right and it just doesn't work out.

Barry Bonds gets the first two putouts in the 3rd. He ran in on a liner hit straight at him, then ranged to center to take a ball Winn could have handled. It looks like he has not problem getting to balls, but he takes a few steps to stop.

Via Balls, Sticks and Stuff, ProTrade publishes a fascinating piece by Gabriel Desjardins on outfield throwing arms. He does something similar to my Probabilistic Model of Range to determine how many bases outfielders save with their arms. Great graphics and a nice use of probability models.

Staying with the theme of unusual Sox defense, the Red Sox hav turned four double plays through the sixth inning. They came into today dead last in the AL in double plays turned. I wonder how much having Olerud at first helps?

One thing the Red Sox are doing much better is not grounding into double plays. They are 8th in the AL this season. When I was going to Fenway in the 1980s, it seemed the Sox were close to setting a record for GDPs every season.

The Chicago White Sox used to be near the top of the AL in errors every year. Coming into today, they had the third fewest in the AL. That's why tonight's loss to the Rangers is so unusual. Tad Iguchi made three errors and Uribe added a fourth to let in three unearned runs as the White Sox lost to the Rangers 7-5. Without the unearned runs, they win the game.

The Marlins are not the only team usings a new third baseman in this game. Nomar gets a start at third and makes a throwing error on a bunt by Juan Pierre. With Vargas at first (he's batting .313), Pierre bunted (looks to me as if he were going for a base hit). The shortstop, Cedeno, went the wrong way, breaking for third. The second baseman, Perez, went to cover first. Nomar was going to throw to second to get the runner (the ball was bunted firmly) but no one was there! Nomar then slung the ball in the direction of first base, to the outfield side of Derrek Lee. Nomar got the error, but Cedeno made the bad play.

Update: The official scorer called it a Sacrifice and Error. I thought he was bunting for a hit, but the defense treated it like a sac.

Update: Vargas gets his 2nd hit of the game, making him six for seventeen on the season with two doubles.

Tony Graffanino just made what could be a game-saving catch for the Red Sox. The Sox lead 5-1 in the 9th, and Curt Schilling is in for his last relief appearance before he starts. With men on 2nd and 3rd, a fly is hit to no-man's land in right center. Graffanino ran back, fighting the sun, put his glove up, and the ball hit the heel. It rolled down his arm and Tony snatched it out of the air. Schilling gets a fly to center to finish the game and give the Red Sox the victory.

Tangotiger is once again calling for the baseball community to contribute to the 2005 Scouting Report.

What I would like to do now is tap that pool of talent. I want you to tell me what your eyes see. I want you to tell me how good or bad a fielder is. Go down, and start selecting the team(s) that you watch all the time. For any player that you've seen play in at least 10 games in 2005, I want you to judge his performance in 7 specific fielding categories.

I love this idea, using the great baseball knowledge of the public to turn subjective judgements into objective data. I hope everyone will participate.

The Royals just made a serious defensive blunder. D.J. Carrasco was pitching a great game, shutting out the Indians through six innings. But the Indians got the first two runners on in the 7th. Ronnie Belliard bunted to move the runners, and Carrasco threw to third on the signal by his catcher. The throw was late, and the Indians loaded the bases. When you're having a tough time winning, every out is precious. Jeff Liefer made Carrasco pay for the error, taking the next pitch over the right field fence for a grand slam. They Royals find themselves down 4-2 in the the 7th, and are now looking at their 13th loss in a row.

Update: The Indians make the 4-2 score hold up, and the Royals extend their losing streak to 13. The Indians pull within 2 1/2 games of the Angels in the wild card race.

Here's an account of Mike Lowell pulling the hidden ball trick. A list of these deceptive plays can be found at retrosheet.org.

The Nationals defense makes the game with the Astros close. With the bases loade and two outs, Cristian Guzman throws a groundout away, leading to two runs. Washington leads 6-5 in the seventh.

The Mets take a 3-2 lead in the top of the 11th on a very interesting play. With Beltran on second and Floyd on first, one out, Piazza singles to right. Guillen throws home trying to get Beltran, but the throw is not in time. Piazza tries to advance, and the catcher Schneider guns Piazza out at second. Floyd then tries to score from third, and Carroll guns him out at the plate. A 9-2-6-2 double play.

Update: Looper gets the save as the Mets win the game 3-2.

The Cincinnati Reds played embarassing defense in the 2nd inning against the Cardinals tonight. It seemed every time they touched the ball something went wrong. Jason Romano is playing center field. Reggie Sanders hit a ball to the warning track in center, and instead of getting under it, Romano tried to reach out from the side. He was totally fooled, and the ball bounced into the stands for a ground rule double. It's one of those hits that the rules don't call an error, but it really was poor defense.

Later in the inning, Felipe Lopez throws two balls away. Neither looked like a difficult play. The big difference I see between major league and minor league games is the fielding. Tonight, the Reds are fielding like minor leaguers.

Rafael Furcal just scored on a fly ball that any would have stopped most runners from even trying to tag up. Juan Pierre fielded the ball in shallow center field, about as shallow as you can go and still be in center field. He was behind the ball, had his momentum going toward the plate, but released a lollipop throw, and with Furcal's speed it wasn't even close. Juan should be embarassed about that play.

With two out in the 7th scored tied 1-1, the Yankees showed one of their great weaknesses, defense. Womack is playing center tonight and Chris Woodward hit a ball over his head that a good CF would have caught. It went for a double. A walk and a wild pitch put runners on 1st and 3rd. An error by the 2nd baseman Cano gave the Mets the lead. An infield hit and an error by Giambi allowed two more to score, and the Yankees are down 4-1 instead of being even with the Mets.

Jose Cruz Jr. is in the dog house in the club house due to his poor defense.

After a tough day in the outfield, when he misjudged and misplayed a few fly balls hit his way during Arizona's 3-2 loss to the Cleveland Indians at Jacobs Field, Cruz found an image of Darth Vader taped above his locker.

Blue highlighter was smeared on Vader's cheeks, a not-so-subtle reminder by someone on the team that Cruz could have used eye black - or something - to more deftly play his position.

Yes, Jose's misplays led to runs that cost the Diamondbacks the game. But he also hit a home run. Where was the rest of the Diamondbacks offense? They weren't exactly storm troopers out there yesterday. That's two days in a row where the opposition scored three runs and the DBacks lost. There is plenty of blame to go around.

Mom and coach Tracy Cooper sends this story about a great play made by her young son:

As I sat in the dugout waiting for our team to reach the final out of the inning, I kept thinking to myself, would I rather be in the stands cheering with the rest of the mothers and taking snapshots of memories or is this pressure really worth the results. The batter finally swings and it was like everything went into slow motion as the ball shot straight up in to the air. Now, I shouldn't be taking all this so seriously. These kids are only playing T-Ball and yet they are hitting off of the coaches pitches; rather fast I might add, because after all dads do take this game seriously. Some of them just completed kindergarten, like the catcher for example. I watched him raise up with strength and reach for his catchers mask with his right arm. I, and the other coaches stood up in our seats as well, pretending to mimic the catchers motions, as we knew what we wanted him to do, catch the ball. As he threw his mask to the ground, he looked straight up into the clouds and kept his eye on the ball never looking at the batter, never turning to the crowd and searching for mom or dad to see if they were watching. Oh, I was watching and I was praying and I was clinching my fists with anticipation. As the ball was dropping, ever so slowly, I saw the catcher kick his feet back up into the air and stretch his arm to the top point of home plate where he dove and met the ball with his glove. It was picture perfect. An instant snapshot that took forever to complete and yet I will remember it forever. Then I see this catcher, after the dust settled away, realizing that he had caught the ball. With the biggest smile he jumped up into the air shaking his glove with the ball still intact inside to share his excitement with the team and crowd. The coaches and parents began jumping up for joy and waving their arms in the air sharing this elated moment with the rest of the team. Later that night, at home, while watching Baseball tonight on ESPN, my son looked over at me and said "Hey mom... Do you think my catch today at home plate was good enough to make it into the top ten web gem hall of fame?" Makes me wish I would've had my video camera.

David DeJesus starts off Buddy Bell's tenure by stealing an extra-base hit from Derek Jeter. Jeter hit a ball to the wall in deep left center, but DeJesus ran it down.

An interesting article in the Dallas Morning News on the Rangers defense. Hank Blalock's 53 game errorless streak ended Thursday, and the article concentrates on how flawless the Rangers are playing.

So, if the question is about him, Blalock can quickly turn the subject to how Mark Teixeira has played flawlessly at first base this season. Or how catcher Rod Barajas has thrown out almost everybody who has tried to steal. Or maybe he can interest you in a little talk about the outfield's infallibility. Or even the pitchers holding runners and fielding their position well.

"Everybody on defense has a lot of confidence in everybody else," Blalock said Thursday afternoon. "It's almost like when an offense starts taking walks because they know the next guy will get the job done. We have faith in one another to get the job done."

Showalter understands that defense is about more than errors.

Showalter agreed when the supposition was tossed in front of him that team defense has been the Rangers' most consistent asset this season.

"Winning is about two things: run production and run reduction," he said. "And there is a lot to run reduction that doesn't show up in statistics."

Showalter pointed to multiple examples, including the outfielders keeping runners from taking extra bases, then ending innings before they could score and pitchers quickening their moves to home plate to keep runners from stealing.

With all this praise for the Texas Rangers defense, their ability to turn a batted ball into an out must be called into question. The Hardball Times graphs fielding independent pitching vs. defensive efficiency, and according to that, Texas' defensive strength is the staff, not the fielders.

There is, however, one thing that leads me to believe that the chart may not be accurate. If you scroll down to the pitching table, you'll see that the Rangers pitcher's have allowed a high percentage of line drives. Since line drives often turn into hits, the defense may be better than the DER is telling us. When I get the data for the Probabilistic Model of Range, the Rangers will be the first team examined.

I have not seen the highlights, but Bob McManaman describes a catch by Jose Cruz, Jr. last night that can only be described as lucky. It reminds me of Lou Piniella sticking out his glove in the 1978 playoff game against the Red Sox to stop a hit from going for extra bases.

There was an unusual play in the Yankees-Mets game. In the 9th, with Womack on first, Sheffield hit a ball into the hole that ticked off Wright's glove and into Reyes mitt. Reyes made a strong throw, but it was too late to get Sheffield. Mientkiewicz, when he made the catch, turned to look at the umpire to see what the call was. While he's turning his head, Womack scooted to third, since Wright was out of position. It looked to me that if Mientkiewicz had come up throwing, it's possible he could have caught Womack at third. I was amazed that he bothered to look at the ump rather than paying attention to the runner.

A real strange play in the bottom of the first of the Cleveland-LAAOA game. With Sizemore on 1st, Victor Martinez hit a grounder to Erstad at first. Erstad bobbled the ball with his foot on the bag. As he reached for it, the umpire saw Erstad's foot come off the bag. Erstad picked up the ball and threw to second, thinking he had the force at first. The shortstop Cabrera took the throw, but his tag of Sizemore was late.

Scioscia came out to argue the play at first. The replay showed the play at first was very close; it wasn't clear to me that Erstad's foot came off the bag. The umpires confered, and decided that they would not overrule the call. However, given that the batter wasn't forced, they then called Sizemore out at 2nd, saying he was forced. However, the replays make it look like Cabrera's foot wasn't on the bag, however, the replay angles were not good. So the Angels ended up getting an out, and Colon got out of the inning.

A fine defensive play by Eric Byrnes to end the top of the 5th. The ball was hit in foul territory near the third base bullpen. Byrnes lept horizontally, got good air time, and made the catch parallel to the ground. Quite impressive, but he looks like he hurt his face on the landing.

The Oakland Athletics defense did a good job of bailing out Kirk Saarloos today. Saarloos walked 5 today, but four double plays by the Oakland infield helped erase most of those runners. Street induced the last of those DPs when he entered in relief.

Freddy Garcia has also just allowed 1 run so far. He's doing it the old fashioned way, having only allowed four hits and two walks through 7 innings.

Mark Buehrle is getting some defensive help tonight. The White Sox have turned a double play in each of the first three innings. Harden has allowed 1 run, which is probably enough for him to lose tonight. :-)

Update: The Oakland Athletics scoreless innings streak ends at 26. Kotsay drove in Ginter to make the score 3-1 White Sox in the bottom of the fifth.

If you have a chance, catch the double play in the top of the first of the Braves-Mets game. With men on first and third, one out, LaRoche grounded back to the pitcher. The ball hit Heilman in the leg and bounded over to the third baseman. Wright didn't have a chance to get the runner at the plate, so he threw to first to get LaRoche. Wright, however, left third base open, so Jordan (who had moved to 2nd) took off for third. Reyes ran with him, and Woodward threw a perfect strike to a moving Reyes so to get the tag play on Jordan. Appropriately, it looked like a football play.

The Athletics can't hit their way out of a bag this season, but they're backing up their pitchers with great defense. I've seen two fantastic catches in the outfield tonight and good work by the infielders on double plays. The game is scoreless after six innings.

Update: Steve Finley puts one where no defener can get it, giving the Angels a 1-0 lead in the 7th. Blanton has now given up three home runs, all solo shots.

If you are going to hit .140 as a shortstop, you better be the best defensive player at your position. Guzman was not today. He made an error that allowed two runs to score in the 9th inning, handing the Braves an unearned victory. It was the worst possible time to boot a ball. Maybe the Nationals will get lucky like the Cubs have have Cristian injure his groin.

Upate: I'm told it wasn't a booted ball, it was a throwing error. Still, the post holds. He should be making an error in that situation. I just watched the play on Tivo. He did a good job getting to the ball in the hole on a very wet infield. He rushed his throw, however. It would have been a very close play if he had taken his time and set himself, but even if he didn't get the batter, it would have been a tie game at that point.

Also, Nick Johnson tried to hold the bag and reach for the ball. If he had come off the bag, he might have stopped the throw from going by and saved a run.

I just saw an unusual play by Steve Finley. Nick Swisher hit a ball deep in the right-center power alley. Finley ran for the ball, and ended up over running it as he was near the wall and the ball fell behind him. He seemed to have a tough time tracking the ball, but it was a play he should have made. He had plenty of time to get there.

Pedro Martinez threw three wild pitches today, and the three were directly responsible for his two runs allowed. As I listened to the game on the radio driving around this afternoon, I wondered how much having Piazza behind the plate caused them. The third one was off Piazza's body, and from the play by play description it seems a better catcher would have had it. Watching the first two on Tivo, Piazza never tries to get his body in front of the ball. He's set up outside, and when the pitch comes low and inside, all Mike does is try to backhand the ball with his glove. There's no attempt to move to block the pitch.

If this keeps up, Pedro won't have any confidence throwing pitches in the dirt. Lots of batters will swing at those, but you need the catcher to stop the ball to record the out.

SI.com links to Derek Jeter's fielding chart! Thanks to Jacob Luft for the link.

With men on second and third and two outs, Lowe gets the grounder to Valentin. Jose boots the ball and throws late and wide to first for the error. Alou gets the RBI to give the Giants the lead and put Schmidt in line for the win.

I'm sure DePodesta will take a beating over that error. It should have been an easy out.

I was just going to note that Jeter hasn't had a difficult play tonight, when he nearly throws the ball away on a slow grounder. Giambi make a nice stretch to left, falls over, but catches the ball and holds the bag for the out. Yankees lead 4-1 in the middle of the 5th.

Giambi makes the first error of the season. He dove for a instead of getting in front of it. But Renteria grounds into a double play to negate the miscue.

Kevin Millar gives the ball a ride, but Hideki Matsui makes the first great play of 2005, bring the ball back into the park in front of the Canon sign in left field. It's 0-0 instead of 2-0.

With the introduction of a graphical representation of the Probabilistic Model of Range for players, I've had a couple of requests for entire infields, specifically the Angels and the Yankees. I'm presenting the charts for groundballs in two ways:

1. All fielders combined into a line.
2. Each position broken out separately so you can see which positions are strong or weak in each vector.

Note that I don't break it out by individual players; it's all shortstops for a team or all third basemen for a team.

Without further ado, here are the charts for the Angels and Yankees. (Click on graph for a clearer view.)

One example of how to use these charts is to look at the hole between third and short for the Angels, vector 1. The Angels as a whole are above average here, but it's due to the third basemen being way above average, while the shortstops as a whole are below average.

The other thing these graphs are telling me is that I don't have park effects right. The expected curves for the two teams mostly look as they should; They have four humps representing the straight-away position of the fielders, the places where you would expect the most outs. But the Angels have a big hump down the right field line; the Yankees have a smaller hump up the middle.

There's no reason for me to believe that a ground ball down the line is easier to field in Anaheim than anywhere else in the majors. Even though the data is smoothed (1/2 without park effects, 1/2 with) it's obviously not enough. I'll be persuing other ways of dealing with park effects in the near future.

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Tyler Kepner pens an excellent article on Jorge Posada's interactions with his pitching staff. It's a constant learning experience for Posada:

"My favorite part is knowing that they're comfortable, knowing that, no matter what, they can count on me," Posada said. "What I really enjoy most about catching is the relationship with a pitcher. The most important thing is they can relax when I'm back there and know that I did my job, I did some homework on hitters."

He has to adjust to each personality on the mound:

The hard part, Posada said, is that every pitcher is different. Roger Clemens wanted constant feedback. Orlando Hernández needed Posada to challenge him. Mike Mussina directs his own game, with little interference. Posada adjusts daily, depending on the pitcher.

And the pitchers depend on him for clues to how to work the batters:

Pavano peppers his catcher with questions between innings, asking if he saw the same thing Pavano did from a hitter. Wright, who said he was easy to catch because he throws mostly fastballs, also relies on the catcher to read a batter's clues.

"He's sitting right next to the hitter, so he can see a lot of things I can't necessarily see," Wright said. "And also, being a hitter, he might have a better idea what it means when a guy's moving his feet or his hips."

The piece does a nice job of illustrating a subtlety of the game that's difficult to quantify. It also shows why there's more to a catcher's defense than throwing out base stealers.

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The Easter Bunny arrived a day early for me, and instead of colorful eggs I received colorful charts representing each fielder's probabilistic model of range. For each player, there's a se of graphs with a black line for actual outs, a yellow line for predicted out, a red line for the difference between the two, and blue lines representing the best and worst values for those data points by qualifying players.

I want to thank and congratulate Dave Stasiuk for his hard work and excellent programming skills in creating these web pages. Thanks to to Studes for many mock ups and helpful suggestions. I'm having a great time looking at these graphs, and I hope you do also.

Go here to see a list of players. Then click on the name, and you'll get complete charts for every position played by that fielder, one for each batted ball type. Enjoy!

Please feel free to use the comments to suggest any improvements.

Update (7:00 AM EST March 27, 2005): David Stasiuk explains the blue lines:

It's +/- 1 standard deviation from the average AO/BIP for each vector by position by BIP type, as weighted by the number of balls in play for each player...so, for example, a shortstop who played one game, and had one ball hit to him and made it for 1.0 AO/BIP would only have one record at 1.0 in calculating the standard deviation, whereas a shortstop who played every game and had 0.93 AO/BIP in 200 BIP to the same vector over the course of the season would have 200 records at 0.93 in calculating the standard deviation.

This gave me a solid +/- for every position for every vector...it isn't a min/max so much as it is a standard range of performance. Basically, if a regular player is either over or under that range endpoint, you know that they're either really good or really bad for that particular BIP type and vector.

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The Detroit Tigers Weblog uses our Range Charts to look at the possible replacements for Alex Sanchez. We should have range charts for all players soon.

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I want to clear up a misconception that about my thoughts on defense that's running through this Sons of Sam Horn thread. Unfortunately, I can't respond there because I'm not a member.

In an interview with Red Sox nation, I wrote:

Johnny Damon was hands down the best outfielder in the AL last year, but keep your eye on Mark Kotsay.

On the SoSH thread, I see this (typo corrected):

As noted in the other Pinto thread, the charts seem to contradict a) his comments in the RSN interview and b)conventional wisdom about many things including Beltran & Damon as defensive studs

As many seem to believe Pinto's ratings are among the best out there, I thought this deserved a thread after having been buried/ignored in the other Pinto thread.

My comments on Damon were based on his defensive win shares. Defensive win shares take into account a number of different elements of defense, including outfielder's arms. PMR is only concerned with turning batted balls into outs.

Secondly, my system is still in development. I'm not convinced I have the correct weighting of parameters yet, especially when win shares says one thing and PMR disagrees on a major aspect of the calculation.

What's clear is the Damon got to more balls than any other AL center fielder. My calculations say he should have gotten to even more, but given that Bill James spent years on the problem and I've spent a couple of months, I'm willing to give win shares the edge when rating the overall defense of a player.

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I thought another interesting study using the charts for the Probabilistic Model of Range would be to look at Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran as centerfielders. First, let's look at their overall 2004 performance catching fly balls. Here's Cameron (click on graphs for a larger view):

And here's Beltran:

They look very similar. Cameron has a dip at the top of the curve which I'll come back to. Since these graphs don't tell us much, I though it would be interesting to break them down by batted ball velocity as well. Baseball Info Solutions records three types of velocity -- soft, medium and hard. Let's start with the medium fly balls.

These should be the routine plays. Cameron looks a hair better, but both do a good job of catching what they should catch. Let's move to the hard hit balls, the ones that should be over their heads:

There's a lot of noise in Cameron's data, but Beltran looks like he does well on balls hit deep. Finally, let's look at soft fly balls:

Smaller samples mean more noise, but Cameron appears to have the edge here. My guess is that Beltran plays deeper to be able to get to the deep fly balls, while Cameron takes advantage of his speed to play closer in. Which is better? Those hard hit balls are probably more likely to go for extra bases. We'll need further study to evaluate the tradeoff.

Back to Cameron's dip. Cameron doesn't do as well with balls hit to straight away center as one might expect, especially on soft fly balls. Cameron's tracks flys very differently from most outfielders. I wonder if this causes him to have trouble with balls hit right at him? Does he jump back, then fail to come in? I'd love to hear from Mets fans about this.

Update: There's an excellent post in the comments on the physics of a ball hit directly at a center fielder.

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The response to the David Eckstein range charts has been overwhelmingly good. I thought I'd also put up charts of Cristian Guzman, since he did very well in the study.

Here's Guzman on ground balls. He fits the prediction almost exactly (click on charts for a large image).

Here's Cristian on fly balls:

He really shines on line drives, however.

Some commentors have pointed out that Eckstein is short for a ball player. I see him listed as 68 inches. Guzman is listed at 72 inches, so that may make a difference. However, I took at look at the relationship of height to PMR on line drives, and didn't find anything indicating that it really mattered.

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Over the last few days I've been chatting with Robert Saunders about presenting data graphically. He pointed me to this post on Edward Tufte's web site, where's he trying to present charts that are the size of words. I'm not there yet, but Robert did get me thinking about presenting the Probabilistic Model of Range graphically. I thought I'd give it a try with David Eckstein, since there were some arguments over whether the data properly reflected his abilities.

What I've done is broken the data down by ball in play type (grounders, flys and liners). Each chart below has the direction of the ball on the X-Axis. The Y-Axis represents the probability of turning those balls into outs. Eckstein's actual probability is compared to the predicted probability. For reference, a vector of -4 (minus 4) represents the thirdbase line, and 8 represents straight away centerfield. Here's Eckstein on grounders in 2004 (click on graphs for a larger image):

As you can see, David is great when the ball is hit right at straight away short. But once he starts moving left or right, he becomes a below average fielder. Nothing terrible, just below average.

Now let's look at fly balls.

I really love the information this chart conveys. It shows that fly balls are usually caught by shortstops around the normal position, they go down around third base, but pick up again in foul territory. And this shows why David does so poorly. He does not catch pop ups in foul territory. With the Cardinals, he has a great fielding third baseman in Rolen, so Scott will have to go after balls the shortstop usually gets.

Finally, the line drive chart.

He's just way below average to his left. Even at balls hit right at the position, he doesn't do well. Does he not react quickly?

I'll be doing a few more of these. I hope you find them as informative as I do.

Update: Fixed a left-right problem. I said that Eck was below average to his right. I meant left. Thanks, Studes.

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Dodger Thoughts points out an article where the reporter gets two different versions of how to measure defense from Jeff Kent (can't be done) and Paul DePodesta (who's still working on it). I get the feeling Kent doesn't like trying to measure defense because he doesn't do well.

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Earlier in the year I presented a Probabilistic Model of Range. One problem I had with the way I was calculating the numbers had to do with park effects. By including park as one of the six parameters, I made the sample size of each combination very small. I also made the data very dependent on the regular fielder for the home team.

One way of fixing this problem is through smoothing. I'm now looking at two probabilistic models; one using six parameters including park, and the other using five parameters excluding park. I then take a weighted average of the two models to come up with the smoothed model. In this case, I'm using equal weights (I'm more than happy to entertain arguments for other weights).

Because samples sizes based on parks are small, the probabilities calculated are going to have a high variance. By averaging in the model based on the entire major leagues, we're reducing that variance. Here's the list of shortstops, based on the new model (original here):

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Pokey Reese	1532	206	199.47	0.134	0.130	0.00426
Adam Everett	2356	315	306.33	0.134	0.130	0.00368
Cristian Guzman	3950	499	489.89	0.126	0.124	0.00231
Julio Lugo	3874	495	488.28	0.128	0.126	0.00173
Alex Gonzalez	3996	482	481.08	0.121	0.120	0.00023
Rich Aurilia	2070	243	244.96	0.117	0.118	-0.00095
Jose C Lopez	1533	164	165.48	0.107	0.108	-0.00097
Neifi Perez	1729	202	203.82	0.117	0.118	-0.00105
Bobby Crosby	4132	557	564.67	0.135	0.137	-0.00186
Cesar Izturis	4119	495	502.78	0.120	0.122	-0.00189
Carlos Guillen	3597	490	497.14	0.136	0.138	-0.00198
Jimmy Rollins	4187	473	483.08	0.113	0.115	-0.00241
Chris Woodward	1625	194	198.34	0.119	0.122	-0.00267
Wilson Delgado	1053	145	148.07	0.138	0.141	-0.00291
Chris Gomez	1992	230	236.76	0.115	0.119	-0.00339
Orlando Cabrera	4090	497	511.49	0.122	0.125	-0.00354
Craig Counsell	3432	403	415.49	0.117	0.121	-0.00364
Jose Valentin	3141	412	423.60	0.131	0.135	-0.00369
Jack Wilson	4096	532	550.36	0.130	0.134	-0.00448
Miguel Tejada	4340	573	598.79	0.132	0.138	-0.00594
Ramon E Martinez	1507	193	201.99	0.128	0.134	-0.00597
Jose Vizcaino	1399	171	181.28	0.122	0.130	-0.00735
Kazuo Matsui	3004	370	392.64	0.123	0.131	-0.00754
Edgar Renteria	3921	459	491.41	0.117	0.125	-0.00826
Barry Larkin	2179	260	279.27	0.119	0.128	-0.00884
Royce Clayton	3971	452	489.47	0.114	0.123	-0.00944
Khalil Greene	3634	428	462.31	0.118	0.127	-0.00944
Omar Vizquel	3833	437	473.44	0.114	0.124	-0.00951
Alex Cintron	3320	407	439.17	0.123	0.132	-0.00969
Michael Young	4382	483	526.93	0.110	0.120	-0.01003
Derek Jeter	4178	493	534.95	0.118	0.128	-0.01004
Angel Berroa	3745	442	481.73	0.118	0.129	-0.01061
Deivi Cruz	2430	296	322.05	0.122	0.133	-0.01072
Alex S Gonzalez	1906	199	219.91	0.104	0.115	-0.01097
Rafael Furcal	3501	420	463.65	0.120	0.132	-0.01247
Nomar Garciaparra	2019	204	230.96	0.101	0.114	-0.01335
David Eckstein	3562	356	404.55	0.100	0.114	-0.01363
Felipe Lopez	1264	143	165.27	0.113	0.131	-0.01762

At first look, the two lists rank about the same. I did notice, however, that two players moved up quite a bit; Barry Larkin and Miguel Tegada. I curious to know which list matches your expectations better.

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J.D. Drew and Milton Bradley have worked out their outfield assignments for the Dodgers.

"He was telling me he's not trying to step on any toes," Bradley told the Los Angeles Times. "We are in agreement that we want what's best for the team. We want everybody to fulfill his potential.

"I'm more comfortable in center field; he doesn't want me to be uncomfortable. If he can play right field without aggravating his knee, that would be great. But if his knee is acting up, he'll let me know and he can shift over for a couple of weeks."

A good compromise. I don't quite understand, however, why playing center field would be less taxing on Drew's knee than playing right. I would think that in right field you would be involved in many fewer plays. Does anyone understand the different pressure on the knee in right?

Ira Berkow of the NY Times notes that the Giants will have the oldest starting outfield ever.

And how do the pitchers feel with an outfield for the ages? Looking for the silver lining, that's how.

"Experience is everything," Schmidt said. "They're still in the game for a reason. Happy to have them on my team."

And Felipe Alou said, "The older guys don't have as many questions that the younger guys do."

Or, as the pitching coach Dave Righetti said about the elderly outfield: "They'll figure out a way to position themselves. They'll get to the balls."

Lots of strikeouts would help, too.

I'm sorry I haven't linked to this sooner. Michael Humphreys Defenisve Regression Analysis has been published as a single article at The Harball Times. It's well worth the read.

Sometimes I wonder how people get to be general managers of clubs:

Minaya figures first base is undervalued in the market place and in the minds of the average fan. "People take the position for granted," he said. He looks at a guy like J.T. Snow of the Giants, a smooth, graceful glove who "saves the Giants 10 games a year," and he anticipates something similar for his club with Mientkiewicz.

When I hear something like that, my first reaction is that first basemen are just not that involved defensively that they could save the number of runs needed to make a ten game difference. To do that, a first sacker would need to save 100 runs. That's a lot of doubles stopped from going down the line, and a lot of possible throwing errors scooped. Given that Helton earned 4.1 win shares with his glove (the best in the NL in 2004), and that equals about 1.4 wins, first basemen can't do that just with the glove.

However, it's possible that Omar isn't talking about overall performace, but actual clutch fielding performance. In other words, Omar is saying that Snow makes 10 plays a year that prevent wins from becoming losses. Is that possible? Do first basemen get enough balls hit to them in game situations that they can save 10 games? Do they catch enough errant throws in those situations to save 10 games? Can this actually be measured?

I decided to see if the Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) can help. I envisioned a clutch situation where the first baseman turning a ball into an out might make a difference.

• The score has to be real close, with the fielding team tied or leading by 1.
• It has to be late in the game, otherwise other factors have time to work to determine the outcome of the game. I chose the 8th inning or later.
• It has to be a difficult ball to field, but it also has to have some probability of being fielded by the first baseman. So I chose balls with a probability of being turned into an out by the first baseman greater than 0.0 but less than 0.5.

So, how did firstbasemen do in this siutation? The person with the most tough balls in play against him was Lyle Overbay with 14. His expected outs on those balls was 2.05. He turned 2 of them into outs. Nice work, Lyle! Jim Thome did very well. He had 7 tough balls put into play against him in those situations and turned three into outs, as did Shea Hillenbrand. Thome's were tougher to handle, however, as we expected only 0.93 outs for Jim, 1.55 for Shea.

What about Snow? He had 5 such tough balls in play, and turned none of them into outs (expected 0.64). And Doug Mientkiewicz? Like Snow, he had 5 in play, 0 outs (expected 0.93).

Yes, maybe they turned 10 bad throws into outs in those situations. Maybe not. But no one is coming close to turning really tough plays into outs at the rate of ten games a year, and few are even getting the opportunity.

Although range is probably the least important aspect of a catcher's job, we can measure it with this system as well. So for the sake of completeness, here's the rankings for catchers.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2004, 1000 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Doug Mirabelli	1165	26	17.02	0.022	0.015	0.00771
Sandy Alomar Jr.	1149	15	9.50	0.013	0.008	0.00478
Brandon Inge	1003	14	9.56	0.014	0.010	0.00443
Jason LaRue	2955	47	38.04	0.016	0.013	0.00303
John Flaherty	1018	16	13.41	0.016	0.013	0.00254
Todd Greene	1398	18	14.51	0.013	0.010	0.00250
Gerald Laird	1235	17	14.15	0.014	0.011	0.00231
Robby Hammock	1102	12	9.52	0.011	0.009	0.00225
Benito Santiago	1389	15	12.01	0.011	0.009	0.00216
Miguel Ojeda	1060	18	16.05	0.017	0.015	0.00184
Gary Bennett	1939	26	22.47	0.013	0.012	0.00182
Vance Wilson	1246	15	13.01	0.012	0.010	0.00160
Gregg Zaun	2486	33	29.52	0.013	0.012	0.00140
Juan Brito	1376	16	14.09	0.012	0.010	0.00139
Brook Fordyce	1273	12	10.57	0.009	0.008	0.00113
Jason Varitek	3177	32	28.45	0.010	0.009	0.00112
Paul Lo Duca	3233	46	42.55	0.014	0.013	0.00107
A.J. Pierzynski	3218	37	34.61	0.011	0.011	0.00074
Ivan Rodriguez	3279	34	31.64	0.010	0.010	0.00072
Eddie Perez	1274	15	14.23	0.012	0.011	0.00061
Dan Wilson	2545	32	30.58	0.013	0.012	0.00056
Henry Blanco	2673	24	22.84	0.009	0.009	0.00043
Kevin Cash	1461	18	17.38	0.012	0.012	0.00043
Jason Kendall	3814	49	47.42	0.013	0.012	0.00042
Victor Martinez	3384	43	41.76	0.013	0.012	0.00037
Raul Chavez	1194	14	13.62	0.012	0.011	0.00032
Mike Lieberthal	3364	46	45.26	0.014	0.013	0.00022
Mike Redmond	1825	25	24.80	0.014	0.014	0.00011
Brian Schneider	3358	34	33.66	0.010	0.010	0.00010
Ramon Hernandez	2818	32	31.75	0.011	0.011	0.00009
Brad Ausmus	2949	38	37.91	0.013	0.013	0.00003
Ben Davis	1490	16	15.99	0.011	0.011	0.00000
Brent Mayne	1605	17	17.21	0.011	0.011	-0.00013
Charles Johnson	2375	27	27.38	0.011	0.012	-0.00016
Johnny Estrada	3214	24	24.99	0.007	0.008	-0.00031
Javy Lopez	3342	33	34.19	0.010	0.010	-0.00036
Jose Molina	1535	19	19.60	0.012	0.013	-0.00039
Jorge Posada	3434	48	49.78	0.014	0.014	-0.00052
Damian Miller	2939	32	34.12	0.011	0.012	-0.00072
Yadier B Molina	1041	11	11.81	0.011	0.011	-0.00078
Yorvit Torrealba	1319	18	19.05	0.014	0.014	-0.00079
Einar Diaz	1056	8	9.02	0.008	0.009	-0.00097
Jason Phillips	2003	38	40.09	0.019	0.020	-0.00104
Mike Piazza	1223	19	20.57	0.016	0.017	-0.00128
Javier Valentin	1305	18	19.72	0.014	0.015	-0.00132
Mike Matheny	2920	34	37.90	0.012	0.013	-0.00133
Toby Hall	3169	30	34.25	0.009	0.011	-0.00134
Paul Bako	1080	12	13.44	0.011	0.012	-0.00134
John R Buck	1891	20	22.73	0.011	0.012	-0.00144
Todd Pratt	1004	7	8.87	0.007	0.009	-0.00187
Chad Moeller	2369	23	27.45	0.010	0.012	-0.00188
Rod Barajas	2879	25	30.43	0.009	0.011	-0.00189
Miguel Olivo	2385	27	32.42	0.011	0.014	-0.00227
Ben Molina	2299	20	25.29	0.009	0.011	-0.00230
Michael Barrett	3019	31	39.22	0.010	0.013	-0.00272
Dave Ross	1355	13	16.85	0.010	0.012	-0.00284
Adam Melhuse	1541	14	18.46	0.009	0.012	-0.00289

The main problem using this data to seriously measure catchers is the foul pop data. Foul balls that are not caught and not errors are not recorded. So the probability of catching a foul pop is bascially the probability of not making an error on the play.

Not too many people have tried to measure the range of pitchers. One nice thing about this model is that it builds in the handedness of the pitcher. So the model should automatically account for the fact that righties fall off the mound in one direction and lefties in the other. Since pitchers are not in the field as much as other position players, I've lowered the minimum to 500 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2004, 500 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Livan Hernandez	745	59	40.85	0.079	0.055	0.02436
Greg Maddux	642	58	43.74	0.090	0.068	0.02220
Kenny Rogers	707	44	29.42	0.062	0.042	0.02063
Freddy Garcia	600	38	25.63	0.063	0.043	0.02062
Mike Mussina	501	32	22.04	0.064	0.044	0.01989
Kirk Rueter	694	53	41.26	0.076	0.059	0.01691
Jon Garland	694	43	31.63	0.062	0.046	0.01639
Cory Lidle	687	48	37.72	0.070	0.055	0.01496
Mark Buehrle	758	47	35.97	0.062	0.047	0.01455
Jake Westbrook	694	49	39.21	0.071	0.056	0.01411
Javier Vazquez	595	35	26.90	0.059	0.045	0.01361
Tom Glavine	705	48	39.00	0.068	0.055	0.01277
Russ Ortiz	615	41	33.29	0.067	0.054	0.01253
Woody Williams	599	34	26.58	0.057	0.044	0.01239
Esteban Loaiza	595	31	24.29	0.052	0.041	0.01128
Mike Hampton	592	40	34.23	0.068	0.058	0.00975
Josh Fogg	597	36	30.27	0.060	0.051	0.00960
Miguel Batista	641	32	26.32	0.050	0.041	0.00886
Brett Tomko	634	26	20.71	0.041	0.033	0.00835
Chris Carpenter	521	35	31.06	0.067	0.060	0.00756
Mark Mulder	689	42	36.80	0.061	0.053	0.00755
Steve Trachsel	651	38	33.45	0.058	0.051	0.00699
Bartolo Colon	627	32	27.85	0.051	0.044	0.00662
Mark Hendrickson	638	26	21.84	0.041	0.034	0.00652
Brian Anderson	588	21	17.51	0.036	0.030	0.00593
Brian Lawrence	659	39	35.36	0.059	0.054	0.00552
Brandon Webb	619	37	33.83	0.060	0.055	0.00512
Kelvim Escobar	583	22	19.25	0.038	0.033	0.00472
Johan Santana	529	24	21.84	0.045	0.041	0.00409
Jeff Suppan	603	30	28.29	0.050	0.047	0.00284
Doug Davis	614	27	25.44	0.044	0.041	0.00253
Roy Oswalt	686	35	33.43	0.051	0.049	0.00229
Dontrelle Willis	618	33	31.65	0.053	0.051	0.00219
Jose Lima	540	27	25.88	0.050	0.048	0.00208
Paul Wilson	584	26	24.88	0.045	0.043	0.00192
Curt Schilling	641	15	13.79	0.023	0.022	0.00188
Eric Milton	577	24	23.22	0.042	0.040	0.00135
Jamie Moyer	643	27	26.29	0.042	0.041	0.00111
Odalis Perez	585	40	39.38	0.068	0.067	0.00106
Jason Marquis	628	34	33.48	0.054	0.053	0.00083
Tim Wakefield	606	23	22.50	0.038	0.037	0.00082
Mike Maroth	728	33	33.25	0.045	0.046	-0.00034
Adam Eaton	604	27	27.22	0.045	0.045	-0.00036
Barry Zito	642	25	25.85	0.039	0.040	-0.00133
Al Leiter	508	21	21.72	0.041	0.043	-0.00142
Kazuhisa Ishii	525	14	14.78	0.027	0.028	-0.00149
Jaret Wright	537	28	28.86	0.052	0.054	-0.00160
Carl Pavano	693	31	32.46	0.045	0.047	-0.00211
Kyle Lohse	660	21	22.53	0.032	0.034	-0.00231
Matt Morris	621	31	32.77	0.050	0.053	-0.00285
Brad Radke	702	24	26.39	0.034	0.038	-0.00341
Jeff Weaver	680	32	34.71	0.047	0.051	-0.00398
Carlos Silva	730	25	27.92	0.034	0.038	-0.00400
Derek Lowe	640	40	42.61	0.063	0.067	-0.00407
Ben Sheets	611	22	24.55	0.036	0.040	-0.00418
Roger Clemens	559	23	25.37	0.041	0.045	-0.00425
Bronson Arroyo	538	16	18.34	0.030	0.034	-0.00435
John Thomson	623	28	30.94	0.045	0.050	-0.00472
Pedro Martinez	574	18	20.81	0.031	0.036	-0.00490
Ryan Drese	713	34	37.50	0.048	0.053	-0.00491
Ismael Valdez	600	17	19.98	0.028	0.033	-0.00496
Ted Lilly	556	14	16.94	0.025	0.030	-0.00529
Jason Schmidt	557	22	25.17	0.039	0.045	-0.00568
Rodrigo Lopez	514	20	22.93	0.039	0.045	-0.00571
Jose Acevedo	505	18	20.95	0.036	0.041	-0.00585
Nate Robertson	597	26	29.62	0.044	0.050	-0.00607
Kris Benson	632	26	29.92	0.041	0.047	-0.00621
C.C. Sabathia	547	16	19.46	0.029	0.036	-0.00633
Brett Myers	563	24	27.86	0.043	0.049	-0.00685
Sidney Ponson	737	29	34.05	0.039	0.046	-0.00685
David Wells	657	35	39.77	0.053	0.061	-0.00726
Randy Johnson	601	21	25.69	0.035	0.043	-0.00781
Jason Jennings	654	27	32.38	0.041	0.050	-0.00822
John Lackey	620	22	27.36	0.035	0.044	-0.00864
Shawn Estes	641	25	30.89	0.039	0.048	-0.00919
Mark Redman	627	18	24.15	0.029	0.039	-0.00981
Carlos Zambrano	584	29	35.15	0.050	0.060	-0.01053
Jimmy Gobble	519	10	15.67	0.019	0.030	-0.01093
Ryan Franklin	659	15	22.30	0.023	0.034	-0.01107
Darrell May	616	8	15.30	0.013	0.025	-0.01186
Jeremy Bonderman	516	16	22.62	0.031	0.044	-0.01282
Cliff Lee	516	8	15.65	0.016	0.030	-0.01482
Tim Hudson	624	27	36.86	0.043	0.059	-0.01580
Jon Lieber	605	19	28.72	0.031	0.047	-0.01606
Rich Harden	536	16	24.84	0.030	0.046	-0.01648
Jason Johnson	647	17	27.92	0.026	0.043	-0.01687

Other than Greg Maddux having won many gold gloves, I don't know enough about the fielding reputation of pitchers to know if these numbers look good. If there are any experts in the field, please let me know.

Obviously, fielding ability should not weigh very much in evaluating a pitcher. Still, it's nice to see who is a cat around the mound.

Without further ado, the range rankings for leftfielders.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders 2004, 1000 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Aaron Guiel	1012	83	73.18	0.082	0.072	0.00971
Carl Crawford	3170	273	246.74	0.086	0.078	0.00828
Charles W Thomas	1710	133	119.60	0.078	0.070	0.00783
Reed Johnson	1412	98	92.77	0.069	0.066	0.00371
David Dellucci	2077	152	144.33	0.073	0.069	0.00369
Terrmel Sledge	1767	133	126.73	0.075	0.072	0.00355
Kevin Mench	1120	73	69.64	0.065	0.062	0.00300
Carlos Lee	3902	283	273.04	0.073	0.070	0.00255
Eric Byrnes	2676	172	166.39	0.064	0.062	0.00209
Craig Monroe	1369	102	99.95	0.075	0.073	0.00150
Jayson Werth	1592	115	112.70	0.072	0.071	0.00144
Hideki Matsui	4326	303	302.47	0.070	0.070	0.00012
Brad Wilkerson	1300	94	94.05	0.072	0.072	-0.00004
Jay Bay	2930	206	206.55	0.070	0.070	-0.00019
Dave Roberts	1298	87	87.57	0.067	0.067	-0.00044
Barry Bonds	3498	214	215.76	0.061	0.062	-0.00050
Moises Alou	3746	239	241.33	0.064	0.064	-0.00062
Jose Guillen	3464	264	266.40	0.076	0.077	-0.00069
Luis Gonzalez	2748	162	163.92	0.059	0.060	-0.00070
Dee Brown	1413	93	94.28	0.066	0.067	-0.00091
Ray Lankford	1175	82	83.16	0.070	0.071	-0.00099
Cliff Floyd	2759	164	167.47	0.059	0.061	-0.00126
Raul Ibanez	2920	227	230.68	0.078	0.079	-0.00126
Larry Bigbie	2793	214	217.89	0.077	0.078	-0.00139
Manny Ramirez	3293	198	204.49	0.060	0.062	-0.00197
Miguel Cabrera	1464	92	95.01	0.063	0.065	-0.00206
Jeff Conine	2139	175	180.21	0.082	0.084	-0.00244
Geoff Jenkins	4131	261	273.14	0.063	0.066	-0.00294
Lew Ford	2074	149	156.19	0.072	0.075	-0.00347
Matt Lawton	3291	231	242.50	0.070	0.074	-0.00350
Adam Dunn	4196	250	266.18	0.060	0.063	-0.00386
Bobby Kielty	1105	71	75.62	0.064	0.068	-0.00418
Pat Burrell	3261	216	231.22	0.066	0.071	-0.00467
Rondell White	1917	126	136.17	0.066	0.071	-0.00530
Lance Berkman	1741	93	102.23	0.053	0.059	-0.00530
Eric Young	1019	58	63.55	0.057	0.062	-0.00545
Craig Biggio	1902	116	126.52	0.061	0.067	-0.00553
Matt T Holliday	2963	176	193.05	0.059	0.065	-0.00575
Eli Marrero	1157	80	87.90	0.069	0.076	-0.00682
Shannon Stewart	1937	103	119.94	0.053	0.062	-0.00874
Ryan Klesko	2237	134	155.40	0.060	0.069	-0.00957

Our eyes often deceive us when it comes to defense, but not in the case of Ryan Klesko. He's just as brutal as he looks. It's also interesting to note that some of the older players (Bonds, Alou, Luis Gonzalez) are right where they should be, getting the balls at the expected rate. Sig Mejdal wrote the injury prediction section of The Bill James Handbook 2005 and one thing he's looking at is how aging and experience effect skills in the game. For example, he's found that the physical process of aging hurts HR production, but experience helps HR production. I'm wondering if that is going on here; these left fielders have so much experience in the outfield that they can make up for their old legs with positioning.

In the previous post, I noticed a big difference in range between Doug Mientkiewicz and Kevin Millar at first base. Millar did much better, which was a surprise. The first thing I wanted to see was the difference in batted ball types. If the difference is in pop-ups, that might be the answer right there. (Remember, this is full year data, not just with the Red Sox.)

Doug Mientkiewicz at First Base, 2004, by Batted Ball Type

Batted Ball Type	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Bunt Fly	7	4	4.00	0.571	0.571	0.00000
Bunt Grounder	60	5	5.23	0.083	0.087	-0.00389
Fly	1012	50	46.16	0.049	0.046	0.00379
Grounder	1284	149	147.47	0.116	0.115	0.00119
Liner	556	15	12.89	0.027	0.023	0.00380

Kevin Millar at First Base, 2004, by Batted Ball Type

Batted Ball Type	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Bunt Fly	2	0	0.00	0.000	0.000	0.00000
Bunt Grounder	20	4	4.00	0.200	0.200	0.00000
Fly	517	23	17.44	0.044	0.034	0.01075
Grounder	691	87	72.21	0.126	0.105	0.02140
Liner	274	10	3.48	0.036	0.013	0.02380

It's not popups. Kevin is outperforming Doug on grounders and line drives. Now, Millar is getting a big boost from the liners; that can be great positioning or pure luck. But he's also doing very well on the grounders. Let's break the grounders down by direction for both fielders.

Doug Mientkiewicz at First Base, 2004, Groundballs by Direction

Direction	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
11	58	0	0.13	0.000	0.002	-0.00233
12	86	1	0.34	0.012	0.004	0.00772
13	94	2	5.04	0.021	0.054	-0.03232
14	81	12	15.12	0.148	0.187	-0.03847
15	75	39	29.83	0.520	0.398	0.12225
16	45	24	27.22	0.533	0.605	-0.07155
17	40	31	30.95	0.775	0.774	0.00136
18	20	17	16.60	0.850	0.830	0.02023
19	13	11	9.62	0.846	0.740	0.10648
20	14	10	8.71	0.714	0.622	0.09246
21	5	2	3.14	0.400	0.627	-0.22727
22	2	0	0.17	0.000	0.083	-0.08333
23	1	0	0.50	0.000	0.500	-0.50000

Kevin Millar at First Base, 2004, Groundballs by Direction

Direction	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
12	62	0	0.16	0.000	0.003	-0.00261
13	51	5	2.18	0.098	0.043	0.05530
14	43	10	8.83	0.233	0.205	0.02722
15	37	18	14.78	0.486	0.400	0.08697
16	32	27	19.34	0.844	0.604	0.23943
17	14	12	9.98	0.857	0.713	0.14453
18	9	8	7.72	0.889	0.858	0.03098
19	8	4	5.52	0.500	0.690	-0.18977
20	5	2	2.87	0.400	0.574	-0.17371
21	1	1	0.64	1.000	0.636	0.36364

It looks like Millar is doing a better job than Mientkiewicz at fielding balls hit right at the normal first base position. I'm stumped for an explanation. Maybe the Red Sox make such good use of batted ball data that they positioned Kevin perfectly. Maybe, for some reason, the model does not value the balls hit at Millar as highly as the balls hit at Mientkiewicz. If either were true, then moving Doug to the Red Sox should have helped his range. In fact, it did. With the Red Sox, Mientkiewicz recorded 73 outs on 62.44 expected outs, a DER difference of 0.01278, a big improvement in his overall number of 0.00248. Given that the Red Sox are very carefully studying ball in play data, I bet the positioning has a lot to do with it.

I would normally run left fielders here, being the next position in the defensive spectrum, but I've fallen behind and have a request for first basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen 2004, 1000 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Jeff Conine	1431	141	105.62	0.099	0.074	0.02472
Kevin Millar	1504	124	97.13	0.082	0.065	0.01787
Darin Erstad	3159	252	213.80	0.080	0.068	0.01209
Todd Zeile	1103	87	74.69	0.079	0.068	0.01116
Nick Johnson	1830	143	123.10	0.078	0.067	0.01087
Ben Broussard	3119	198	176.50	0.063	0.057	0.00689
Tino Martinez	2978	226	206.94	0.076	0.069	0.00640
Brad Wilkerson	2169	185	171.80	0.085	0.079	0.00609
J.T. Snow	2565	178	162.93	0.069	0.064	0.00588
Hee Seop Choi	2572	184	170.90	0.072	0.066	0.00509
Albert Pujols	4025	322	302.41	0.080	0.075	0.00487
Pedro Feliz	1573	115	109.18	0.073	0.069	0.00370
Mark Teixeira	3881	336	321.79	0.087	0.083	0.00366
Todd Helton	4250	312	296.65	0.073	0.070	0.00361
Tony Clark	1917	141	134.49	0.074	0.070	0.00339
Derrek Lee	4025	302	290.34	0.075	0.072	0.00290
Carlos Delgado	3257	266	257.25	0.082	0.079	0.00269
Jason Giambi	1187	75	71.83	0.063	0.061	0.00267
Julio Franco	1957	131	126.03	0.067	0.064	0.00254
Doug Mientkiewicz	2919	223	215.75	0.076	0.074	0.00248
Randall Simon	1016	72	69.67	0.071	0.069	0.00229
Jim Thome	3580	239	230.93	0.067	0.065	0.00225
John Olerud	3197	215	208.68	0.067	0.065	0.00198
Daryle Ward	1740	104	100.62	0.060	0.058	0.00194
Craig A Wilson	1450	86	83.21	0.059	0.057	0.00193
Shea Hillenbrand	3352	241	234.94	0.072	0.070	0.00181
Adam LaRoche	2198	132	128.07	0.060	0.058	0.00179
Carlos Pena	3632	217	210.61	0.060	0.058	0.00176
Lyle Overbay	4158	304	301.39	0.073	0.072	0.00063
Paul Konerko	3634	223	221.40	0.061	0.061	0.00044
Ken Harvey	2045	132	131.89	0.065	0.064	0.00005
Mike Sweeney	1572	105	105.75	0.067	0.067	-0.00048
Jeff Bagwell	3798	282	285.44	0.074	0.075	-0.00091
Phil Nevin	3675	251	254.42	0.068	0.069	-0.00093
Sean Casey	3974	257	263.71	0.065	0.066	-0.00169
Justin Morneau	1619	97	100.13	0.060	0.062	-0.00193
Scott Hatteberg	3874	257	266.21	0.066	0.069	-0.00238
Rafael Palmeiro	3497	227	237.20	0.065	0.068	-0.00292
Shawn Green	2794	175	185.88	0.063	0.067	-0.00389
Mike Piazza	1636	87	96.28	0.053	0.059	-0.00567

I'm not surprised that a good centerfielder also fields well at first base, although my gut feeling is the Angels needed his glove in center more than at first. Other converts didn't work out so well as Green and Piazza finished at the bottom of the list. Green also did poorly when he was in right field. If you're going to have poor range, better at first than in right.

A big surprise on the list will be the relative positions of Kevin Millar and Doug Mientkiewicz. It's worth breaking those two down further. I'll do that in the next post.

I'm feeling better today and was able to think through the problem a little more clearly. Thanks for all the comments on the last post.

I did a simple calculation using the latest Bill James runs created formula for teams, found in The Bill James Handbook 2005. I first imagined a team that had 6000 plate appearances and got 1500 singles as a result (no walks, extra-base hits, etc). The RC formula would estimate that the team would score 422 runs. I then added 44 singles, giving the new team 6044 plate appearances. The run estimate for this team was 444 runs, or 22 more. So estimates from 18 to 30 do appear to be in the correct range.

I would offer one caveat, however. Because Eckstein is getting 44 fewer outs doesn't mean those outs aren't being picked up by other fielders. Some have pointed out that there is noise in the popup data; pretty much every popup is caught by a fielder. There is noise in the groundball data as well. There are going to grounders where both the third baseman and the shortstop have non-zero probabilities of fielding the ball. If the third baseman, due to superior range, cuts in front of the shortstop often he'll take outs away from the middleman. In most cases these should even out, but in some situations the shortstop will appear not to get to balls that indeed are outs.

Curveblog has a couple of post up on David Eckstein's range and what it's costing in terms of runs. I have to disagree with something:

re the cost of dave eckstein’s poor range, a poster calling him/herself "anolis" asks an intelligent question:

"If I read this correctly, Eckstein made 44 less outs than might have been expected, and the analysis suggests that this translated into allowing 33 more runs that expected. Can this be correct? Since the outs that Eckstein missed almost surely turned into singles, is the expected value of turning an out into a single 3/4 of a run? Seems high to me."

That seems real high to me, also. Unfortunately, I can't think too well right now (as I write this I find I wish I hadn't started, it's very difficult to concentrate). But 44 outs means that Eckstein is adding less than two extra games of offense to his opponents. If the opponents score about 4.5 runs per game, than Eckstein should cost his team 4.5*(44/27) runs, or a little over 7 runs.

Bill James showed over 20 years ago that the difference between the best and worst fielding shortstops couldn't be more than 25 runs a season. So I don't think David's fielding cost his team anywhere near 33 runs.

Yesterday's Probabilistic Model of Range post on rightfielders showed Sammy Sosa doing better than Ichiro Suzuki. I wanted to investigate further why that might be true. The next two tables show the two outfielders broken down by the direction the ball was hit. Lower numbers are toward the third base lines, higher numbers are are toward the first base line. Seven and eight make up straight-away center field.

Sammy Sosa, 2004, PMR by Direction

Direction	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
8	138	0	0.10	0.000	0.001	-0.00069
9	124	1	0.05	0.008	0.000	0.00770
10	112	0	0.21	0.000	0.002	-0.00188
11	119	3	3.32	0.025	0.028	-0.00266
12	156	12	15.79	0.077	0.101	-0.02430
13	193	35	27.71	0.181	0.144	0.03775
14	182	47	45.77	0.258	0.251	0.00674
15	164	59	53.47	0.360	0.326	0.03372
16	147	37	37.91	0.252	0.258	-0.00618
17	88	21	18.51	0.239	0.210	0.02825
18	57	11	9.56	0.193	0.168	0.02521
19	32	9	5.08	0.281	0.159	0.12265
20	13	1	1.00	0.077	0.077	0.00000
21	4	2	1.30	0.500	0.325	0.17500
22	5	0	0.50	0.000	0.100	-0.10000
23	4	0	0.20	0.000	0.050	-0.05000
24	3	0	0.14	0.000	0.048	-0.04762

Ichiro Suzuki, 2004, PMR by Direction

Direction	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
8	181	0	0.02	0.000	0.000	-0.00011
10	170	3	1.02	0.018	0.006	0.01165
11	139	16	9.75	0.115	0.070	0.04495
12	209	33	35.72	0.158	0.171	-0.01300
13	237	49	42.59	0.207	0.180	0.02704
14	250	79	79.39	0.316	0.318	-0.00158
15	231	81	84.38	0.351	0.365	-0.01465
16	166	62	60.54	0.373	0.365	0.00878
17	106	24	26.28	0.226	0.248	-0.02146
18	73	10	12.89	0.137	0.177	-0.03965
19	36	4	5.87	0.111	0.163	-0.05195
20	28	7	5.81	0.250	0.207	0.04268
21	12	1	1.00	0.083	0.083	0.00000
22	10	3	3.63	0.300	0.363	-0.06250
23	6	2	0.92	0.333	0.153	0.18056
25	7	1	0.67	0.143	0.095	0.04762

We have an interesting paradox here. If you define range as the ability to cover more ground, Suzuki is clearly your man. But I'm defining range as the ability to turn a batted ball into an out, and Sosa wins on that count. Why? My speculation from the data is that Sosa stays in one place. There's a reason outfielders are positioned a certain way; that's where most of the balls are hit. Sosa, by staying in straight-away right, gets to all the easy balls. My guess is that Ichrio (due to his great speed), cheats toward center or the line when he thinks a batter might go that way. So he gets to more balls in the alleys and down the line, but he loses a few easy balls straight away.

This is where incorporating a weighting by type of hit will improve this model. A commentor on the original post stated:

Interestingly, Tom Ruane at Diamond Mind has written in his "Gold Glove" review for 2001-03 that Ichiro is noticeably good at keeping doubles to singles.

What we may have here is an OBA vs. Slugging argument in reverse. Ichiro is catching balls that would be doubles or triples. He's lowering the opposition's slugging percentage. Sosa is making all the easy plays. He's lowering the opposition's on-base average. More research will be needed to ascertain if the trade-off is worth while.

In the continuing series, here's the table for 2004 rightfielders. The results were certainly surprising to me.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Karim Garcia	1361	100	88.88	0.073	0.065	0.00817
Kevin Mench	1557	127	116.43	0.082	0.075	0.00679
Kevin Millar	1336	96	87.01	0.072	0.065	0.00673
Brian Jordan	1132	93	85.96	0.082	0.076	0.00622
Sammy Sosa	3055	238	220.65	0.078	0.072	0.00568
Richard Hidalgo	3519	261	242.20	0.074	0.069	0.00534
Jermaine Dye	3609	257	238.50	0.071	0.066	0.00512
Craig Monroe	1242	110	103.79	0.089	0.084	0.00500
Gabe Kapler	1731	134	126.12	0.077	0.073	0.00455
Joe Borchard	1397	99	93.35	0.071	0.067	0.00404
Brady Clark	2371	218	210.91	0.092	0.089	0.00299
Jacque Jones	3729	313	302.45	0.084	0.081	0.00283
Bobby Higginson	3035	224	216.42	0.074	0.071	0.00250
Juan Encarnacion	3137	247	239.42	0.079	0.076	0.00242
Abraham Nunez	1644	144	140.83	0.088	0.086	0.00193
Jose Cruz	4096	313	307.59	0.076	0.075	0.00132
Reed Johnson	1190	88	86.65	0.074	0.073	0.00113
Gary Matthews Jr.	1532	119	117.38	0.078	0.077	0.00106
Ichiro Suzuki	4336	375	370.48	0.086	0.085	0.00104
Alexis I Rios	2991	217	214.96	0.073	0.072	0.00068
Gary Sheffield	3668	273	271.90	0.074	0.074	0.00030
Danny Bautista	3525	265	265.00	0.075	0.075	-0.00000
Vladimir Guerrero	3665	308	308.45	0.084	0.084	-0.00012
J.D. Drew	3672	277	277.94	0.075	0.076	-0.00026
Jay Gibbons	1704	117	117.91	0.069	0.069	-0.00054
Michael Tucker	2674	209	211.41	0.078	0.079	-0.00090
Lance Berkman	2251	148	150.92	0.066	0.067	-0.00130
Dustan Mohr	1130	89	90.49	0.079	0.080	-0.00132
Brian Giles	4210	323	328.65	0.077	0.078	-0.00134
Timo Perez	1141	83	84.62	0.073	0.074	-0.00142
Jody Gerut	3111	242	246.65	0.078	0.079	-0.00149
Austin Kearns	1570	118	120.71	0.075	0.077	-0.00173
Magglio Ordonez	1134	95	98.02	0.084	0.086	-0.00266
Ben Grieve	1488	108	112.04	0.073	0.075	-0.00272
Larry Walker	1869	122	127.64	0.065	0.068	-0.00302
Juan Rivera	2219	152	160.11	0.068	0.072	-0.00365
Wily Mo Pena	1104	69	73.35	0.063	0.066	-0.00394
Miguel Cabrera	2558	171	181.36	0.067	0.071	-0.00405
Bobby Abreu	4240	311	329.66	0.073	0.078	-0.00440
Rob Mackowiak	1268	78	84.42	0.062	0.067	-0.00506
Reggie Sanders	1977	132	142.03	0.067	0.072	-0.00507
Jeromy Burnitz	1701	106	115.35	0.062	0.068	-0.00550
Craig A Wilson	1929	145	160.63	0.075	0.083	-0.00810
Shawn Green	1256	81	93.72	0.064	0.075	-0.01013
Matt Stairs	1483	108	127.51	0.073	0.086	-0.01315

The conventional wisdom about Sammy Sosa is summed up nicely in a comment to this post:

Sosa is past his prime as a baserunner, is in serious decline as a fielder, and is losing it as a hitter.

The other thing I find very troubling about this list is the position of Ichiro Suzuki. If I could name one right fielder who I would think had extraordinary range, it would be Ichiro.

The model I'm presenting is very simple, and I'm aware of it's flaws and limitations. All of your comments have been very helpful in that regard. I'm going to push forward with the model as is for the rest of the postions before I start trying to improve the calculation, however. This way, we'll have a good baseline for comparison.

Of course, it could be that Sosa isn't as bad as we believe and Ichiro is positioning himself to make great plays at the expense of easy ones. I'll probably present a more detailed breakdown of the two shortly.

For your perusal, the 2004 third basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2004, 1000 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Pedro Feliz	1096	112	95.35	0.102	0.087	0.01519
Kevin Youkilis	1556	150	127.43	0.096	0.082	0.01450
Russell Branyan	1117	117	101.69	0.105	0.091	0.01371
Chone Figgins	2031	178	150.47	0.088	0.074	0.01356
Scott Rolen	3671	391	342.41	0.107	0.093	0.01324
Ryan Freel	1253	142	125.75	0.113	0.100	0.01297
Adrian Beltre	3998	416	364.53	0.104	0.091	0.01287
Chipper Jones	2435	224	193.35	0.092	0.079	0.01259
Eric Chavez	3437	357	324.13	0.104	0.094	0.00956
Joe Randa	3343	306	274.41	0.092	0.082	0.00945
Melvin Mora	3697	351	319.72	0.095	0.086	0.00846
Alex Rodriguez	4213	329	293.99	0.078	0.070	0.00831
Bill Mueller	2448	216	196.31	0.088	0.080	0.00805
Mike Lamb	1366	135	124.49	0.099	0.091	0.00770
David A Wright	1870	158	145.59	0.084	0.078	0.00663
Corey Koskie	3031	262	242.37	0.086	0.080	0.00648
Vinny Castilla	4121	405	379.12	0.098	0.092	0.00628
Casey Blake	4116	369	343.77	0.090	0.084	0.00613
Todd Zeile	1107	103	96.33	0.093	0.087	0.00602
David Bell	3805	377	355.71	0.099	0.093	0.00559
Juan Castro	1224	101	94.90	0.083	0.078	0.00499
Rob Mackowiak	1289	117	111.23	0.091	0.086	0.00448
Sean Burroughs	3286	279	264.57	0.085	0.081	0.00439
Edgardo Alfonzo	3326	307	292.39	0.092	0.088	0.00439
Mark DeRosa	1748	138	130.35	0.079	0.075	0.00438
Chad A Tracy	3136	320	307.39	0.102	0.098	0.00402
Ty Wigginton	2875	256	244.78	0.089	0.085	0.00390
Hank Blalock	4358	362	345.35	0.083	0.079	0.00382
Mike Lowell	3921	357	342.36	0.091	0.087	0.00373
Morgan Ensberg	2564	222	213.08	0.087	0.083	0.00348
Scott Spiezio	1787	170	163.79	0.095	0.092	0.00347
Geoff Blum	1233	105	100.79	0.085	0.082	0.00342
Aramis Ramirez	3464	291	284.46	0.084	0.082	0.00189
Tony Batista	4042	367	364.15	0.091	0.090	0.00071
Aubrey Huff	2214	182	181.20	0.082	0.082	0.00036
Brandon Inge	1690	162	161.45	0.096	0.096	0.00033
Chris Stynes	1187	106	105.75	0.089	0.089	0.00021
Eric Munson	2298	208	207.88	0.091	0.090	0.00005
Joe Crede	3800	299	303.50	0.079	0.080	-0.00118
Keith Ginter	1152	103	104.47	0.089	0.091	-0.00128
Eric Hinske	4121	321	333.49	0.078	0.081	-0.00303
Desi Relaford	1036	94	98.16	0.091	0.095	-0.00402
Wes Helms	1696	141	152.49	0.083	0.090	-0.00677
Mike Cuddyer	1057	76	86.95	0.072	0.082	-0.01036

The Greek God of Walks might also be "death to flying things" at third base. Kevin Youkilis did a great job filling in at third base for the Red Sox this season. I'm not surprised to see Scott Rolen as the top everyday third baseman, but I am surprised to see Chipper Jones rate that highly. And A-Rod aquitted himself well in the move to a new position.

Overall, you'll notice that the third basmen are as positive as the shortstops are negative. I wonder if shifts have become so prevalent that third basemen are picking up a lot of balls that shortstops usually field. I've certainly scored games this season where the third baseman caught the ball at the bag at 2nd base. If the shift was being use a lot more than in 2002 and 2003, that might account for us seeing third basemen positive and shortstops negative.

Michael Humphreys writes:

Thanks so much for posting your results.

I may have mentioned this to you last year--

UZR (and regular ZR) only counts ground balls for infielders, but I think PMR includes all BIP. Is it possible (and easy for you) to separate them out? I'm on record as believing it's very hard to determine whether infielder putouts (even for fly ball BIP) reflect skill, as so many of them are discretionary plays that could be made by one or more other fielders. For this reason, Tom Duane at Diamond Mind takes this approach as well.

There has also been discussion about UZR showing David Eckstein doing well and while my system shows him doing badly. Let's break Eckstein down by ball in play type:

David Eckstein as SS, 2004, by Ball in Play Type

Type of Ball	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Fly	1346	62	82.34	0.046	0.061	-0.01511
Liner	635	17	24.41	0.027	0.038	-0.01168
Grounder	1514	277	293.51	0.183	0.194	-0.01090
Bunt Grounder	61	0	0.00	0.000	0.000	0.00000

As you can see, fly balls and liners are hurting Eckstein. He's not great on grounders, but his inability to chase down pop ups is hurting him. This makes me wonder if catching pops is helping Jeter, since we all remember his great dive into the stands from last season.

Derek Jeter as SS, 2004, By Ball in Play Type

Type of Ball	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Fly	1510	115	104.27	0.076	0.069	0.00711
Liner	759	27	28.77	0.036	0.038	-0.00234
Grounder	1845	351	388.52	0.190	0.211	-0.02034
Bunt Grounder	63	0	0.00	0.000	0.000	0.00000

Jeter is much better at balls in the air than balls on the ground. (Maybe the Yankees should move Jeter to centerfield and find a shortstop who can field grounders.) In fact, if you want a shortstop who fields grounders, you'd pick Eckstein over Jeter. Let's just finish this up with a high ranking shortstop in PMR, Cristian Guzman.

Cristian Guzman as SS, 2004, By Ball in Play Type

Type of Ball	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Fly	1358	85	84.66	0.063	0.062	0.00025
Liner	718	37	26.16	0.052	0.036	0.01510
Grounder	1786	377	381.53	0.211	0.214	-0.00254
Bunt Grounder	80	0	0.00	0.000	0.000	0.00000

It's clear that Guzman's high ranking comes from his catching line drives in 2004, although he's also better than both Jeter and Eckstein at fielding grounders. But these examples bring me back to the title of this post, "What is Range?"

We like to think of range as the ability of a fielder to cover ground. That's really difficult to measure, since as far as I know, no one is keeping track of where each fielder is located on a pitch, or how far the fielder moved to catch a ball. What we can measure is the ability of a fielder to turn a batted ball into an out. Fielders can turn balls into outs because:

• They can move quickly to where the ball is hit.
• They position themselves well so they start near where the ball is hit.
• They have soft hands and accurate arms.

I'm sure readers can suggest other things. But basically, if you move well, your positioning becomes less important. Guzman appears to be positioned well, since he's often in the way of line drives. Jeter appears to move well when the ball is in the air, not so much on the ground. I'd guess Jeter's position is poor, also. There's no evidence that Eckstein moves well, but I bet he's positioned better than Derek. Remember, this is me hypothesizing, I don't have any facts to back this up.

But should we really just look at ground balls for shortstops as the measure of ability at the position? There's a reason that shortstops and second basemen field a lot of popups, especially behind first and third; they're easier plays for the middle infielders. They have a better angle to the ball. And if one of those popups falls in, a speedy runner will turn it into a double. It's a weakness for Eckstein, and should be noted as such. It's a strength for Jeter, and should be noted as such.

As for Guzman's positioning, I'll have to look at multiple years fo data. It easily could be dumb luck. It could be that the Twins staff told him where to go, and it won't carry over to Washington. But it could also be that Guzman can read the batter, and knowing the pitch can make a very good guess at where the ball will go. That would be a strength that should be reflected in the numbers.

So to me, range is the ability to get an out on a ball, and good range comes from getting more of these than expected. I don't care how you get to them; the model adjusts for that.

Chronicles of the lads is working on converting the Probabilistic Model of Range numbers to runs. Start with the previous link and work forward in time.

Update: It's open source basebal research!

Here is the table lising 2004 centerfielders on the field for 1000 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2004, 1000 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Wily Mo Pena	1211	144	135.42	0.119	0.112	0.00708
Corey Patterson	3830	324	301.71	0.085	0.079	0.00582
Andruw Jones	4164	389	374.85	0.093	0.090	0.00340
Jay Payton	3144	333	322.31	0.106	0.103	0.00340
Grady Sizemore	1033	105	102.31	0.102	0.099	0.00261
Luis Terrero	1443	111	107.44	0.077	0.074	0.00247
Lew Ford	1028	101	99.32	0.098	0.097	0.00163
Vernon Wells	3510	327	321.70	0.093	0.092	0.00151
Mark Kotsay	3809	345	340.13	0.091	0.089	0.00128
Luis Matos	2403	221	218.19	0.092	0.091	0.00117
Tike Redman	3643	340	340.24	0.093	0.093	-0.00006
Preston Wilson	1432	118	118.13	0.082	0.082	-0.00009
Jim Edmonds	3738	314	314.49	0.084	0.084	-0.00013
Endy Chavez	3304	301	301.54	0.091	0.091	-0.00016
Marquis Grissom	3799	342	342.66	0.090	0.090	-0.00017
Mike Cameron	3772	354	355.96	0.094	0.094	-0.00052
Torii Hunter	3346	312	313.81	0.093	0.094	-0.00054
Nook P Logan	1179	117	119.19	0.099	0.101	-0.00185
Laynce Nix	2752	222	227.64	0.081	0.083	-0.00205
Milton Bradley	2349	230	234.97	0.098	0.100	-0.00212
Scott Podsednik	4168	392	400.93	0.094	0.096	-0.00214
Coco Crisp	2472	206	211.47	0.083	0.086	-0.00221
Rocco Baldelli	3278	342	349.51	0.104	0.107	-0.00229
Juan Pierre	4257	365	378.59	0.086	0.089	-0.00319
Kenny Lofton	1657	162	168.29	0.098	0.102	-0.00379
Marlon Byrd	2268	196	205.04	0.086	0.090	-0.00398
Craig Biggio	1636	134	140.68	0.082	0.086	-0.00408
Carlos Beltran	4235	397	415.38	0.094	0.098	-0.00434
Steve Finley	4148	359	377.62	0.087	0.091	-0.00449
Johnny Damon	3792	349	366.12	0.092	0.097	-0.00452
Aaron Rowand	3117	291	306.32	0.093	0.098	-0.00492
Jason Michaels	1000	96	102.67	0.096	0.103	-0.00667
Jeromy Burnitz	1622	114	126.52	0.070	0.078	-0.00772
David DeJesus	2361	231	252.60	0.098	0.107	-0.00915
Randy Winn	3304	341	372.91	0.103	0.113	-0.00966
Alex Sanchez	2082	178	200.73	0.085	0.096	-0.01092
Ken Griffey Jr.	2077	173	199.64	0.083	0.096	-0.01283
Chone Figgins	1035	92	105.30	0.089	0.102	-0.01285
Garret Anderson	2393	211	243.09	0.088	0.102	-0.01341
Bernie Williams	2616	214	255.18	0.082	0.098	-0.01574

The first thing I notice is that Andruw Jones is very good and Bernie Williams is very bad. So in this case the system appears to be getting the end points right. The thing that really surprises me is the equality of Biggio and Beltran. Here's a table comparing them just with the Astros:

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Carlos Beltran	2242	200	203.15	0.089	0.091	-0.00140
Craig Biggio	1636	134	140.68	0.082	0.086	-0.00408
Jason Lane	125	8	8.54	0.064	0.068	-0.00436

Beltran was much better with the Astros than Biggio; his poor fielding was a result of his time with Kansas City last year.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Ruben Mateo	133	12	9.62	0.090	0.072	0.01789
Carlos Beltran	1993	197	212.23	0.099	0.106	-0.00764
David DeJesus	2361	231	252.60	0.098	0.107	-0.00915

So the question for the Mets is, which Beltran will show up in centerfield next season? Neither is better than Cameron, and one is a lot worse.

There's a great discussion of the Probabilistic Model of Range going on at Dodger Thoughts. I was going to leave the following comment, but I keep getting an error so I'll leave it here.

I think it's important to realize that I'm not measuring total defense here, I'm simply trying to measure range. So turning double plays is important, but I'm not trying to measure that here.

As for differences between my system and UZR, the two are not exactly alike. The idea is the same, to look at the probability of fielding a certain ball, but I know MGL adjusts for parks differently and his zones are very different from my slices. And for all I know he's using a different set of data as well.

This is only a start. There's a long way to go before we feel comfortable with these numbers but I do believe we're going down the right path. All your comments are very helpful.

Tom G likes what the Probabilistic Model of Range is telling him about the Phillies defense and the composition of the pitching staff.

Edward Cossette and others have raised objections to my characterization of the Nomar deal (see comments). Edward writes:

To me, your data only confirms the veracity to Theo's reasoning that defense was the reason for the trade.

As others have pointed out, Epstein didn't have the luxury of hoping that Nomar was just "rusty."

Indeed, isn't that the whole point of using stats to make decisions, i.e, to remove the "gut feeling" aspect of evaluating players?

It's great that the numbers show Nomar got better after the trade and may in fact have been "rusty." But it's even better to have a GM that saw a problem and did something about it.

Meanwhile, you have absolutely nothing but pure supposition to support your argument "that defense was an excuse to move a player the Red Sox no longer wanted."

That's kind of weird for a stats guy isn't it?

I'm willing to admit that Edward has a point. So I'm going to step back from my earlier statement and look at the numbers again.

There are two things I look at as a stat guy. One is the number, the second is the context. A month and a half is a short time frame for an evaluation. Anything can happen in 100 or so AB (look at Jeter's April hitting numbers). And anything can happen on 100 ground balls or so. Nomar came back rusty. You can see it in his June hitting numbers. But by July he had recovered his swing. Why wouldn't his fielding numbers come back also? He did show range improvement in July, but his numbers were still poor. What was the context for believing the small sample size of poor fielding numbers were valid?

And I will admit that I haven't looked at context either. One is the context of his injury. I don't know how well the injury healed. It was good enough that he could hit well, but not good enough that he could play everyday. Obviously, the Cubs thought the injury healed well enough that they were willing to take Nomar in trade. It's possible that the Red Sox thought that Nomar's poor range would not improve due to the tenderness of his foot. That proved to be incorrect.

The other is the long term context of Nomar's fielding. Were his poor fielding numbers the continuation of a trend? This one I can research. Yes, it was the continuation of a trend. In both 2002 and 2003, Nomar ranked near the bottom of the pack in PMR for shortstops on the field for 1000 balls in play. In 2002, he ranked 31 out of 36. In 2003, he ranked 28 of 38. Was his range costing the Red Sox outs? Yes.

Nomar's offense, however, was making up for his defense. He did earn 52 win shares over 2002-2003. So, with Nomar's offense fine, did Theo really believe that Nomar's defense was costing them that much? Remember, the difference between a really great defensive shortstop and a really bad defensive shortstop over a full full season is 2 or 3 wins. And while Cabrera was good, he wasn't great. So you're talking about maybe 1 win defensively with Cabrera playing instead of Garciaparra. That doesn't seem to me to justify a trade on defense, especially when it's not a long term solution.

As it turns out, Nomar earned 1.7 defensive win shares with the Cubs, and Cabrera earned 1.7 with the Red Sox. Overall, Nomar had 6 win shares with the Cubs, Cabrera 5 with the Red Sox. The tangible evidence says the Red Sox would have done about the same with Nomar or Cabrera at short. The tangible evidence says defense wasn't that important. The tangible evidence says the Red Sox drew the wrong conclusion from 1 1/2 months of fielding data.

The intangible evidence says it was a great trade. Theo trades, runs allowed per game go down, runs scored per game go up and the Red Sox win the World Series. And every once in a while, Soriano swings at a low outside pitch and hits a home run. It's about process. Maybe this trade was about changing the personality of the team. That's fine, but I'd like to be told that rather than some fluff about defense. Maybe it was just that the Red Sox didn't want Nomar long term and tried to get what they could for him. There's nothing wrong with any of that, but they would have been rid of Garciaparra by the end of the year anyway.

Here's what I believe. Theo didn't go to ownership and say, "We have to trade Nomar because he's killing us defensively." I believe ownership came to Theo and said, "Get what you can for Nomar, and find a way to justify it." And yes, that's pure speculation. But I know Theo is a very smart guy and knows about sample sizes. I know he has a very good handle on the value of defense vs. offense. And knowing that, the explanation for the deal does not make sense to me.

Here's the table for major league second basemen in 2004. Again, fielders are included if they were on the field for 1000 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen 2004, 1000 balls in play.

	In Play	Actual Outs	Expected Outs	DER	Expected DER	Difference
Chase Utley	1180	150	141.26	0.127	0.120	0.00740
Nick Green	1786	232	224.57	0.130	0.126	0.00416
Willie Harris	2041	253	246.58	0.124	0.121	0.00315
Bill Hall	1253	133	129.21	0.106	0.103	0.00302
Orlando Hudson	3567	499	488.80	0.140	0.137	0.00286
Mark Loretta	4090	504	499.61	0.123	0.122	0.00107
Placido Polanco	2918	345	344.39	0.118	0.118	0.00021
Tony Graffanino	2090	245	244.69	0.117	0.117	0.00015
Luis Rivas	2637	343	343.31	0.130	0.130	-0.00012
Aaron Miles	3351	399	402.28	0.119	0.120	-0.00098
Rey Sanchez	2177	250	252.33	0.115	0.116	-0.00107
Jeff Kent	3449	394	398.93	0.114	0.116	-0.00143
Juan Uribe	1935	228	230.88	0.118	0.119	-0.00149
Mark Grudzielanek	1609	214	217.31	0.133	0.135	-0.00205
Keith Ginter	1413	151	155.05	0.107	0.110	-0.00286
Junior Spivey	1597	194	199.30	0.121	0.125	-0.00332
D'Angelo Jimenez	4031	453	468.32	0.112	0.116	-0.00380
Luis Castillo	3777	449	465.50	0.119	0.123	-0.00437
Omar Infante	2710	305	319.00	0.113	0.118	-0.00517
Alex Cora	3232	359	377.91	0.111	0.117	-0.00585
Bret Boone	4032	430	454.63	0.107	0.113	-0.00611
Alfonso Soriano	3923	459	483.92	0.117	0.123	-0.00635
Adam Kennedy	3665	452	475.33	0.123	0.130	-0.00637
Tony Womack	3328	421	442.27	0.127	0.133	-0.00639
Brian Roberts	4057	456	482.41	0.112	0.119	-0.00651
Mark McLemore	1127	128	135.49	0.114	0.120	-0.00664
Jose Castillo	2860	318	338.13	0.111	0.118	-0.00704
Ronnie Belliard	4041	467	496.11	0.116	0.123	-0.00720
Marcus Giles	2421	289	307.41	0.119	0.127	-0.00760
Danny Garcia	1091	115	123.43	0.105	0.113	-0.00773
Ray Durham	3076	344	375.95	0.112	0.122	-0.01039
Todd Walker	2094	254	276.35	0.121	0.132	-0.01067
Jose Hernandez	1024	120	131.04	0.117	0.128	-0.01079
Marco Scutaro	2971	332	366.85	0.112	0.123	-0.01173
Scott A Hairston	2157	220	245.38	0.102	0.114	-0.01177
Jamey Carroll	1044	103	115.80	0.099	0.111	-0.01226
Geoff Blum	1127	111	125.46	0.098	0.111	-0.01283
Ruben A Gotay	1155	112	127.71	0.097	0.111	-0.01360
Jose Reyes	1107	122	138.80	0.110	0.125	-0.01518
Jose Vidro	2674	266	308.07	0.099	0.115	-0.01573
Mark Bellhorn	3112	367	417.22	0.118	0.134	-0.01614
Miguel Cairo	2619	331	375.45	0.126	0.143	-0.01697
Enrique Wilson	1798	214	254.66	0.119	0.142	-0.02261

Like the shortstops it wasn't a good fielding season for the second basemen overall. This table does give some credence to the idea that Jeff Kent is a better fielder than conventional wisdom says. I hope someday to improve this program to a point where it's similar to whatever DePodesta uses.

This list should also make Phillies fans happy. They appear to have two of best in Utley and Polanco. And while Nick Green didn't add much to the Atlanta offense, he ate up balls at 2nd last season.

At the other end of the scale, the Yankees look like they actually upgraded their range at second replacing Cairo with Womack. And if defense is so important to the Red Sox, I wonder how long Mark Bellhorn will last at 2nd.

It's time to start looking at individual players. We'll start with the position to get the most opportunities, the shortstops. As the following table shows, it wasn't a great season for these middle infielders.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops 2004, 1000 balls in play.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Pokey Reese	1532	206	200.75	0.134	0.131	0.00343
Adam Everett	2356	315	309.60	0.134	0.131	0.00229
Cristian Guzman	3950	499	492.35	0.126	0.125	0.00168
Julio Lugo	3874	495	492.12	0.128	0.127	0.00074
Rich Aurilia	2070	243	242.28	0.117	0.117	0.00035
Bobby Crosby	4132	557	557.61	0.135	0.135	-0.00015
Jose C Lopez	1533	164	165.00	0.107	0.108	-0.00066
Jimmy Rollins	4187	473	476.56	0.113	0.114	-0.00085
Alex Gonzalez	3996	482	485.71	0.121	0.122	-0.00093
Neifi Perez	1729	202	203.81	0.117	0.118	-0.00105
Cesar Izturis	4119	495	500.91	0.120	0.122	-0.00144
Chris Woodward	1625	194	196.74	0.119	0.121	-0.00169
Carlos Guillen	3597	490	496.37	0.136	0.138	-0.00177
Chris Gomez	1992	230	233.60	0.115	0.117	-0.00181
Wilson Delgado	1053	145	149.37	0.138	0.142	-0.00415
Orlando Cabrera	4090	497	514.77	0.122	0.126	-0.00434
Khalil Greene	3634	428	444.56	0.118	0.122	-0.00456
Craig Counsell	3432	403	419.30	0.117	0.122	-0.00475
Jose Valentin	3141	412	427.57	0.131	0.136	-0.00496
Jack Wilson	4096	532	555.52	0.130	0.136	-0.00574
Ramon E Martinez	1507	193	201.93	0.128	0.134	-0.00593
Edgar Renteria	3921	459	484.36	0.117	0.124	-0.00647
Derek Jeter	4178	493	521.56	0.118	0.125	-0.00684
Jose Vizcaino	1399	171	181.51	0.122	0.130	-0.00751
Miguel Tejada	4340	573	608.49	0.132	0.140	-0.00818
Royce Clayton	3971	452	485.18	0.114	0.122	-0.00836
Michael Young	4382	483	520.15	0.110	0.119	-0.00848
Kazuo Matsui	3004	370	395.82	0.123	0.132	-0.00860
Deivi Cruz	2430	296	318.30	0.122	0.131	-0.00918
Omar Vizquel	3833	437	473.87	0.114	0.124	-0.00962
Alex Cintron	3320	407	438.92	0.123	0.132	-0.00962
Angel Berroa	3745	442	480.58	0.118	0.128	-0.01030
Alex S Gonzalez	1906	199	219.12	0.104	0.115	-0.01056
Barry Larkin	2179	260	284.27	0.119	0.130	-0.01114
Rafael Furcal	3501	420	461.64	0.120	0.132	-0.01189
David Eckstein	3562	356	400.26	0.100	0.112	-0.01243
Nomar Garciaparra	2019	204	230.57	0.101	0.114	-0.01316
Felipe Lopez	1264	143	165.30	0.113	0.131	-0.01764

One hypothesis for the overall poor play by shortstops in 2004 is the aging of the big players. Vizquel, Jeter, Garciaparra and Tejada are not youngsters anymore. A-Rod moving out of the position hurt also. All of these players will be a year older in 2005; it will be interesting to see if there is further decline in the position as a whole.

It looks like the Nationals got a decent vacuum cleaner at short with their signing of Christian Guzman. With all the talk about Rich Aurilia being old and broken down, he did a very good job fielding. It also appears that the Angels got a nice upgrade replacing Eckstein with Cabrera. If Eck fields like that for the Cardinals, don't expect that team to be number one in defense again next season.

Pokey Reese, who was supposed to spend most of his time at 2nd base before the Nomar Garciaparra injury, had the best range at shortstop in the majors in 2004. Nomar was down near the bottom. This gives us a chance to evaluate the Red Sox shortstops.

Boston Red Sox Shortstops, 2004 (Minimum 10 balls in play)

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Cesar Crespo	288	36	32.83	0.125	0.114	0.01101
Pokey Reese	1532	206	200.75	0.134	0.131	0.00343
Orlando Cabrera	1465	174	180.47	0.119	0.123	-0.00442
Ricky Gutierrez	106	13	13.89	0.123	0.131	-0.00838
Nomar Garciaparra	964	85	110.10	0.088	0.114	-0.02604
Mark Bellhorn	32	3	4.23	0.094	0.132	-0.03840

So if we go back to the Garciaparra/Cabrera trade, we can now see it in it's full light. It wasn't that the Red Sox defense had been bad all year; it's that it was bad with Nomar at shortstop. With Reese injured, Boston figured they needed another fielder at the position. However, Boston may have jumped the gun. There's some evidence that Nomar was just rusty. Compare Nomar with Cabrera after the trade:

SS Range, 2004	Nomar with Cubs	Cabrera with Red Sox
In Play	1055	1465
Actual Outs	119	174
Predicted Outs	120.47	180.47
DER	.113	.119
Predicted DER	.114	.123
Difference	-0.00139	-0.00442

So after the trade, Garciaparra had better range than Cabrera. Yes, Cabrera was able to play more. The uncertainty of Nomar's future health was certainly a factor in the deal. But given Nomar's play the rest of the way, Boston could have done without the trade and been just as good on defense, with Crespo or Reese (once he got off the DL) spelling Nomar occasionally. I felt at the time that defense was an excuse to move a player the Red Sox no longer wanted. This data does nothing to change my mind on the matter.

I've been working on the software for this during the week, and have acquired updated ball in play data as well. I'm now ready to go full bore with the study.

First, however, an update of a couple of tables shown previously. The good people at Baseball Info Solutions have been busy recording batted ball information this winter to complete the database, and that new data is included in the following table. This should replace the table found here.

2004 Probabilistic Model of Range, Totals for Teams

Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Cardinals	4378	3106	3092.01	0.709	0.706	0.00320
Cubs	4119	2869	2855.86	0.697	0.693	0.00319
Red Sox	4387	3040	3027.90	0.693	0.690	0.00276
White Sox	4370	3034	3025.58	0.694	0.692	0.00193
Phillies	4440	3120	3118.53	0.703	0.702	0.00033
Devil Rays	4459	3119	3121.25	0.699	0.700	-0.00050
Dodgers	4324	3084	3086.19	0.713	0.714	-0.00051
Marlins	4257	2987	2991.48	0.702	0.703	-0.00105
Giants	4541	3149	3156.63	0.693	0.695	-0.00168
Mets	4552	3165	3174.40	0.695	0.697	-0.00206
Blue Jays	4471	3091	3100.88	0.691	0.694	-0.00221
Padres	4396	3044	3058.60	0.692	0.696	-0.00332
Braves	4488	3087	3102.55	0.688	0.691	-0.00346
Rangers	4549	3124	3141.88	0.687	0.691	-0.00393
Diamondbacks	4315	2941	2961.05	0.682	0.686	-0.00465
Astros	4148	2842	2863.53	0.685	0.690	-0.00519
Indians	4486	3065	3090.32	0.683	0.689	-0.00564
Athletics	4489	3123	3150.72	0.696	0.702	-0.00618
Expos	4414	3061	3095.05	0.693	0.701	-0.00771
Rockies	4614	3136	3176.20	0.680	0.688	-0.00871
Brewers	4410	3045	3087.09	0.690	0.700	-0.00954
Mariners	4488	3140	3187.45	0.700	0.710	-0.01057
Twins	4486	3082	3135.59	0.687	0.699	-0.01195
Reds	4584	3151	3213.64	0.687	0.701	-0.01367
Pirates	4317	2956	3017.18	0.685	0.699	-0.01417
Orioles	4451	3055	3124.15	0.686	0.702	-0.01554
Yankees	4492	3085	3164.12	0.687	0.704	-0.01761
Tigers	4521	3090	3172.22	0.683	0.702	-0.01819
Royals	4647	3131	3227.78	0.674	0.695	-0.02083
Angels	4359	2990	3081.10	0.686	0.707	-0.02090

The order of team changes a bit, but not much. It still looks like a poor defensive season overall.

The other chart to update had to do with performance behind pitchers, and that's updated in the extended entry.

Update: I have improved data for the models, so I've updated the tables in a new post. They are in the extended entry. The order changes a little, but not enough to make a big difference.

Something easy for me to do with the software I'm developing is to look at the defense behind particular pitchers with the Probabilistic Model of Range. The following chart lists every pitcher with at least 300 balls in play against him for a particular team.

Defense Behind Pitchers, 2004, ranked by difference between expected outs and actual outs.

Pitcher	Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Curt Schilling	Red Sox	642	455	426.88	0.709	0.665	0.04380
Scott Elarton	Indians	347	258	248.64	0.744	0.717	0.02697
Al Leiter	Mets	509	377	363.47	0.741	0.714	0.02659
Zach Day	Expos	373	267	257.87	0.716	0.691	0.02447
Rob Bell	Devil Rays	410	295	285.19	0.720	0.696	0.02394
C.C. Sabathia	Indians	549	390	377.24	0.710	0.687	0.02323
Zack Z Greinke	Royals	438	317	307.30	0.724	0.702	0.02215
Brett Tomko	Giants	634	446	432.18	0.703	0.682	0.02179
Greg Maddux	Cubs	643	456	442.04	0.709	0.687	0.02171
Glendon Rusch	Cubs	407	282	273.34	0.693	0.672	0.02127
Jerome Williams	Giants	404	290	282.65	0.718	0.700	0.01820
Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	602	431	420.22	0.716	0.698	0.01791
A.J. Burnett	Marlins	326	231	225.40	0.709	0.691	0.01717
Carl Pavano	Marlins	694	491	479.15	0.707	0.690	0.01708
Kevin Brown	Yankees	416	295	287.94	0.709	0.692	0.01696
Jake Westbrook	Indians	694	491	479.59	0.707	0.691	0.01644
Randy Wolf	Phillies	434	305	298.08	0.703	0.687	0.01594
Jason Schmidt	Giants	556	406	397.23	0.730	0.714	0.01577
Mark Buehrle	White Sox	759	521	510.05	0.686	0.672	0.01443
Ted Lilly	Blue Jays	556	406	398.14	0.730	0.716	0.01414
Jeff Suppan	Cardinals	603	426	418.13	0.706	0.693	0.01305
Kazuhisa Ishii	Dodgers	527	389	382.15	0.738	0.725	0.01301
Jae Seo	Mets	389	269	263.95	0.692	0.679	0.01299
Tom Glavine	Mets	704	501	491.89	0.712	0.699	0.01294
Kenny Rogers	Rangers	708	472	462.89	0.667	0.654	0.01286
Jeremy Bonderman	Tigers	516	367	360.63	0.711	0.699	0.01235
Jon Garland	White Sox	696	499	490.75	0.717	0.705	0.01185
Roger Clemens	Astros	560	400	394.19	0.714	0.704	0.01038
Mark Mulder	Athletics	691	478	471.02	0.692	0.682	0.01010
Victor Zambrano	Devil Rays	354	254	250.58	0.718	0.708	0.00967
Jose Lima	Dodgers	540	389	383.87	0.720	0.711	0.00950
Ryan Vogelsong	Pirates	419	290	286.09	0.692	0.683	0.00933
Mike Wood	Royals	328	229	225.98	0.698	0.689	0.00921
Odalis Perez	Dodgers	586	429	423.97	0.732	0.723	0.00859
Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	524	370	365.58	0.706	0.698	0.00844
David T Bush	Blue Jays	306	219	216.51	0.716	0.708	0.00814
Claudio Vargas	Expos	344	247	244.36	0.718	0.710	0.00767
Livan Hernandez	Expos	747	531	525.55	0.711	0.704	0.00730
Brian Lawrence	Padres	660	452	447.32	0.685	0.678	0.00710
Jimmy Gobble	Royals	518	376	372.53	0.726	0.719	0.00669
Matt Clement	Cubs	473	332	329.05	0.702	0.696	0.00625
John Halama	Devil Rays	400	278	275.51	0.695	0.689	0.00623
Miguel Batista	Blue Jays	642	446	442.02	0.695	0.689	0.00620
Wes Obermueller	Brewers	410	284	281.50	0.693	0.687	0.00609
Barry Zito	Athletics	645	450	446.30	0.698	0.692	0.00574
Roy Oswalt	Astros	687	466	462.08	0.678	0.673	0.00571
Carlos Zambrano	Cubs	584	415	411.91	0.711	0.705	0.00528
Mike Mussina	Yankees	501	339	336.45	0.677	0.672	0.00508
Brett Myers	Phillies	563	391	388.33	0.694	0.690	0.00474
Eric Milton	Phillies	581	425	422.69	0.731	0.728	0.00398
Sun-Woo Kim	Expos	431	295	293.52	0.684	0.681	0.00344
Jeff Weaver	Dodgers	681	478	475.74	0.702	0.699	0.00332
Jason Jennings	Rockies	657	440	437.99	0.670	0.667	0.00306
Steve Trachsel	Mets	651	461	459.19	0.708	0.705	0.00278
Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	574	403	401.44	0.702	0.699	0.00272
Russ Ortiz	Braves	615	435	433.49	0.707	0.705	0.00245
Ryan Drese	Rangers	714	490	488.49	0.686	0.684	0.00212
Doug Davis	Brewers	614	424	422.86	0.691	0.689	0.00185
David Wells	Padres	658	466	465.05	0.708	0.707	0.00144
Steve W Sparks	Diamondbacks	419	287	286.78	0.685	0.684	0.00053
Brian Anderson	Royals	588	393	392.74	0.668	0.668	0.00044
Javier Vazquez	Yankees	595	425	424.76	0.714	0.714	0.00041
Johan Santana	Twins	529	392	391.84	0.741	0.741	0.00031
Ryan Franklin	Mariners	662	465	464.90	0.702	0.702	0.00015
Josh Beckett	Marlins	426	297	297.17	0.697	0.698	-0.00040
Ron Villone	Mariners	349	249	249.22	0.713	0.714	-0.00064
Freddy Garcia	Mariners	321	229	229.24	0.713	0.714	-0.00076
Bartolo Colon	Angels	626	438	438.68	0.700	0.701	-0.00109
Brad Radke	Twins	703	489	489.82	0.696	0.697	-0.00116
Adam Eaton	Padres	605	418	418.71	0.691	0.692	-0.00118
Mark Hendrickson	Devil Rays	641	438	439.18	0.683	0.685	-0.00183
Mike Hampton	Braves	592	397	398.14	0.671	0.673	-0.00193
Daniel A Cabrera	Orioles	480	344	344.98	0.717	0.719	-0.00205
John Thomson	Braves	623	423	424.51	0.679	0.681	-0.00242
Matt Morris	Cardinals	622	439	440.57	0.706	0.708	-0.00253
Gary Knotts	Tigers	436	307	308.18	0.704	0.707	-0.00272
Kelvim Escobar	Angels	583	407	408.66	0.698	0.701	-0.00285
Scott Schoeneweis	White Sox	362	246	247.24	0.680	0.683	-0.00343
Jaret Wright	Braves	538	372	374.02	0.691	0.695	-0.00376
Kirk Rueter	Giants	695	479	482.29	0.689	0.694	-0.00474
Bronson Arroyo	Red Sox	538	372	374.60	0.691	0.696	-0.00483
Jason Marquis	Cardinals	630	432	435.37	0.686	0.691	-0.00535
Jake Peavy	Padres	444	304	306.84	0.685	0.691	-0.00640
Dustin Hermanson	Giants	398	277	279.68	0.696	0.703	-0.00673
Kerry Wood	Cubs	373	256	258.70	0.686	0.694	-0.00723
Rodrigo Lopez	Orioles	515	367	370.73	0.713	0.720	-0.00724
Shawn Estes	Rockies	641	440	444.66	0.686	0.694	-0.00726
Josh Fogg	Pirates	597	414	418.38	0.693	0.701	-0.00733
Ramon Ortiz	Angels	401	275	277.99	0.686	0.693	-0.00746
Joel Pineiro	Mariners	417	289	292.21	0.693	0.701	-0.00770
Jeff Fassero	Rockies	388	257	260.08	0.662	0.670	-0.00793
Tim Hudson	Athletics	625	428	433.09	0.685	0.693	-0.00815
Cliff Lee	Indians	519	355	360.26	0.684	0.694	-0.01014
Ben Sheets	Brewers	612	427	433.46	0.698	0.708	-0.01055
Paul Wilson	Reds	584	414	420.20	0.709	0.720	-0.01062
Wilson Alvarez	Dodgers	349	249	253.02	0.713	0.725	-0.01151
Kevin Millwood	Phillies	430	286	291.48	0.665	0.678	-0.01274
Kip Wells	Pirates	418	278	283.43	0.665	0.678	-0.01299
Tim Wakefield	Red Sox	607	430	438.09	0.708	0.722	-0.01333
Joe Kennedy	Rockies	496	342	348.77	0.690	0.703	-0.01365
Jarrod Washburn	Angels	490	338	344.70	0.690	0.703	-0.01367
Jason Johnson	Tigers	647	435	444.05	0.672	0.686	-0.01399
Brad Penny	Marlins	388	270	275.45	0.696	0.710	-0.01404
Vicente Padilla	Phillies	359	250	255.15	0.696	0.711	-0.01434
Esteban Loaiza	White Sox	452	313	319.52	0.692	0.707	-0.01444
Jamie Moyer	Mariners	644	463	472.34	0.719	0.733	-0.01450
Josh Towers	Blue Jays	416	277	283.47	0.666	0.681	-0.01554
Paul Byrd	Braves	364	252	257.85	0.692	0.708	-0.01606
Cory Lidle	Reds	490	334	341.92	0.682	0.698	-0.01617
Rich Harden	Athletics	536	372	380.66	0.694	0.710	-0.01617
Gil Meche	Mariners	393	269	275.72	0.684	0.702	-0.01709
Aaron Harang	Reds	500	342	350.77	0.684	0.702	-0.01754
Aaron Cook	Rockies	340	233	239.32	0.685	0.704	-0.01858
Casey Fossum	Diamondbacks	431	286	294.21	0.664	0.683	-0.01904
Woody Williams	Cardinals	599	419	430.49	0.699	0.719	-0.01919
Kris Benson	Pirates	424	288	296.26	0.679	0.699	-0.01949
Nate Robertson	Tigers	596	399	410.66	0.669	0.689	-0.01957
Carlos Silva	Twins	730	492	507.23	0.674	0.695	-0.02087
Ismael Valdez	Padres	418	291	300.00	0.696	0.718	-0.02154
Oliver Perez	Pirates	452	325	334.81	0.719	0.741	-0.02171
Mark Redman	Athletics	627	428	441.82	0.683	0.705	-0.02205
Kyle Lohse	Twins	660	438	453.31	0.664	0.687	-0.02320
Pete Munro	Astros	335	223	230.84	0.666	0.689	-0.02342
Mike Maroth	Tigers	729	495	512.31	0.679	0.703	-0.02375
Roy Halladay	Blue Jays	413	280	290.16	0.678	0.703	-0.02460
Joaquin Benoit	Rangers	302	205	212.71	0.679	0.704	-0.02552
Tim Redding	Astros	346	227	236.00	0.656	0.682	-0.02600
Terry Mulholland	Twins	434	283	294.44	0.652	0.678	-0.02636
Mark Prior	Cubs	306	205	213.20	0.670	0.697	-0.02679
Dontrelle Willis	Marlins	619	421	437.97	0.680	0.708	-0.02741
Jose Acevedo	Reds	507	342	356.32	0.675	0.703	-0.02825
Brandon Webb	Diamondbacks	622	420	437.90	0.675	0.704	-0.02878
Sidney Ponson	Orioles	739	487	509.03	0.659	0.689	-0.02981
Dewon Brazelton	Devil Rays	394	280	291.80	0.711	0.741	-0.02994
Victor Santos	Brewers	487	327	341.94	0.671	0.702	-0.03068
Dennys Reyes	Royals	327	214	224.24	0.654	0.686	-0.03131
R.A. Dickey	Rangers	368	239	252.42	0.649	0.686	-0.03648
Todd Van Poppel	Reds	371	253	266.85	0.682	0.719	-0.03734
Erik Bedard	Orioles	421	278	293.99	0.660	0.698	-0.03799
John Lackey	Angels	621	423	447.24	0.681	0.720	-0.03903
Derek Lowe	Red Sox	640	410	435.55	0.641	0.681	-0.03992
Aaron Sele	Angels	470	317	336.88	0.674	0.717	-0.04229
Jon Lieber	Yankees	603	396	422.01	0.657	0.700	-0.04314
Darrell May	Royals	615	407	434.05	0.662	0.706	-0.04399
Paul Quantrill	Yankees	358	236	253.04	0.659	0.707	-0.04759
Jason Davis	Indians	400	257	276.04	0.642	0.690	-0.04760

The thing that struck me when I looked at this table was Curt Schilling at the top and Derek Lowe very close to the bottom. On the same team, with pretty much the same defense, Schilling received 28 more outs that expected (that's a whole nine innings worth of outs) and Lowe missed almost as many, -25. So what's going on? Here's a closer look at the pitchers on the Red Sox.

2004 Red Sox Pitchers, minimum 100 balls in play against.

Pitcher	Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Curt Schilling	Red Sox	642	455	426.88	0.709	0.665	0.04380
Alan Embree	Red Sox	161	114	107.24	0.708	0.666	0.04198
Mike Timlin	Red Sox	232	160	151.18	0.690	0.652	0.03800
Keith Foulke	Red Sox	225	166	160.98	0.738	0.715	0.02230
Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	574	403	401.44	0.702	0.699	0.00272
Bronson Arroyo	Red Sox	538	372	374.60	0.691	0.696	-0.00483
Tim Wakefield	Red Sox	607	430	438.09	0.708	0.722	-0.01333
Derek Lowe	Red Sox	640	410	435.55	0.641	0.681	-0.03992

If there's a pattern here, I'm not sure what it is, except that Wakefield and Lowe had the lowest K per 9 in this group. What we really could be seeing is how pitchers effect the balls in play. It could simply be that the balls put into play against Schilling are easier to field than the balls put into play against Lowe! Voros McCracken's theory is that a pitcher has little to do with a ball in play being turned into an out. Tom Tippet found that that's not really the case, although the effect by the pitcher is small. (Links to both found here.) Maybe we've found a way to quantify that contribution.

Of course, it could be all luck. Lowe had a very positive number last year. Schilling was on the plus side, but only by about 6 outs in 2003. Looks like a whole new line of study is opening.

As always, I'm getting very good feedback on a Probabilistic Model of Range post. I wanted to address some of the questions.

I know we discussed this last year, but I forget the answer: is this data adjusted for ballpark?

Ballparks are a parameter of the calculation. The adjustment is built in, rather than added later.

For those of us interested in tracking stats and info but unable to wrap their brains around the math and the various acronyms, is there a way to turn the results into something simpler?

The simplest way to look at it is to just concentrate on the last column. A negative number means the team performed below expectations. A positive number means they exceeded expectations.

Thanks for running your system. I'm confused about the team out totals. It seems that if you add all the teams up, they collectively fielded close to 900 fewer balls than they should have.

Shouldn't this be centered by league average? Or maybe it's centered by the *three*-year average, which would imply that fielding was below average in 2004 across the major leagues.

It's possible that I'm 900 balls short. There can be two reasons for this:

1. There's a bug in my program.
2. The version of the database I'm using is incomplete. Baseball Info Solutions relies on video tapes to input batted ball information. The version of the database I'm working with is from early October, and not all games had been viewed on tape yet. Also, during a season, batted balls get missed on broadcasts for various reasons.

I've run checks and my code looks correct. Given that there were over 120,000 balls in play last season, 900 should not make a big difference in terms of the team averages.

This is centered on the three-year average, which is why teams look like they were below average in 2004.

Once again, thanks for the feedback.

Update: I have improved data for the models, so I've updated the table in a new post. The order changes a little, but not enough to make a big difference.

Sorry, I hit the save instead of the preview button for this post. An explanation will be added shortly.

2004 Probabilistic Model of Range, Totals for Teams

Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Angels	4360	2990	3080.32	0.686	0.706	-0.02072
Royals	4643	3127	3211.12	0.673	0.692	-0.01812
Yankees	4488	3081	3158.71	0.686	0.704	-0.01732
Tigers	4524	3091	3169.20	0.683	0.701	-0.01729
Orioles	4458	3058	3125.39	0.686	0.701	-0.01512
Pirates	4326	2959	3023.71	0.684	0.699	-0.01496
Reds	4590	3155	3220.04	0.687	0.702	-0.01417
Twins	4491	3083	3140.70	0.686	0.699	-0.01285
Mariners	4490	3140	3183.09	0.699	0.709	-0.00960
Brewers	4416	3049	3086.30	0.690	0.699	-0.00845
Rockies	4620	3138	3174.15	0.679	0.687	-0.00782
Expos	4421	3067	3100.04	0.694	0.701	-0.00747
Astros	4151	2843	2866.27	0.685	0.691	-0.00561
Indians	4490	3069	3093.60	0.684	0.689	-0.00548
Rangers	4551	3124	3148.34	0.686	0.692	-0.00535
Athletics	4499	3127	3148.70	0.695	0.700	-0.00482
Diamondbacks	4320	2939	2955.30	0.680	0.684	-0.00377
Braves	4489	3088	3102.32	0.688	0.691	-0.00319
Blue Jays	4478	3097	3108.56	0.692	0.694	-0.00258
Padres	4393	3040	3050.63	0.692	0.694	-0.00242
Giants	4541	3148	3157.22	0.693	0.695	-0.00203
Devil Rays	4471	3127	3135.05	0.699	0.701	-0.00180
Marlins	4263	2991	2995.97	0.702	0.703	-0.00117
Mets	4557	3166	3170.73	0.695	0.696	-0.00104
Phillies	4452	3127	3129.24	0.702	0.703	-0.00050
Dodgers	4333	3089	3089.39	0.713	0.713	-0.00009
White Sox	4375	3038	3028.95	0.694	0.692	0.00207
Cubs	4124	2873	2861.76	0.697	0.694	0.00273
Red Sox	4391	3041	3028.85	0.693	0.690	0.00277
Cardinals	4387	3112	3097.10	0.709	0.706	0.00340

Explanation: Last year, I worked on a way of measuring range which I called a Probabilistic Model of Range (see the defense archives). I was basically repeating work done by Mitchel Lichtman which he named the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Since Mitchel's work was more mature than mine, and since I had to write new software because the source of my data changed, I did not puruse these ranking for the 2004 season. However, I just learned that Mr. Lichtman is working for the Cardinals (congratulations, Mike!) and won't be publishing his results anymore. There's a niche to fill, so here it goes.

I calculate the probability of a ball being turned into an out based on six parameters:

1. Direction of hit (a vector).
2. The type of hit (Fly, ground, line drive, bunt).
3. How hard the ball was hit (slow, medium, hard).
4. The park.
5. The handedness of the pitcher.
6. The handedness of the batter.

For each ball in play, the program sums the probability of that ball being turned into an out, and that gives us the expected outs. Dividing that by balls in play yields expected defensive efficiency rating (DER). That is compared to the team's actual DER. A good defensive team should have a better DER than it's expected DER.

There are differences between this year's and last year's calculation. I'm now using three years of data instead of just one. Also, Baseball Info Solution charts balls differently that STATS, Inc. so there are many more vectors that in the previous system. I believe that actually improves the calculation. Finally, the numbers above are approximate; my database is from early October, and BIS had not input every ball in play yet. Still, it should be enough to get a feel for how good teams were on defense in 2004.

The first thing to notice from the table is that it was a poor defensive season overall. Only four teams had a better DER than predicted by the model. The Cardinals and Red Sox were 1-2, and ended up the World Series. The Angels were last, but also made the playoffs. The Yankees continued their abysmal defense, while the Mets high ranking should help explain why so many of their pitchers had better ERAs than DIPS ERAs.

The next step is to use this method to evaluate individual fielders. Watch for that in upcoming posts.

Update: Just in case I wasn't clear on this, the model is built on three years data, but the chart above is just for 2004.

Correction: Corrected the spelling of Mitchel Lichtman's name.

Mike Cameron has broken his silence on the Mets decision to move him to right field:

Cameron, whose reservations about moving to right field had made him the subject of trade discussions, announced last night that he is now preparing to switch to right after all, a revelation that should keep the two-time Gold Glover in New York.

"That's the plan right now and [we'll] see what happens," Cameron said on a conference call.

Later he added:

"I had reservations about it for the simple reason of I've never done it before," said Cameron, who did not exactly sound thrilled about his new position last night. "The one thing we came to terms with [yesterday] was I'm here to do what's in the best interests of the ballclub and try to put this team back on the map."

This appeared to be very important to the Mets, as a management contingent visited the former CF.

On their way down to their Dominican Republic baseball facility, Jeff Wilpon, Omar Minaya, Jim Duquette, Tony Bernazard and Willie Randolph stopped to visit Cameron at his Atlanta home. Cameron said the meeting was critical and answered a multitude of questions he had about moving. The Mets thought it necessary, too, especially to let Cameron know, in Minaya's words, "We don't take a change like [switching positions] for granted."

"It was important to meet with him because we think that Mike Cameron is that special player that we have to do those kind of things," Minaya said.

I'd like to expand on a couple of ideas that are floating through the comments on the Beltre signing and the Randy Johnson trade. The first is that the Beltre's career is inconsistent with his 2004 season. While that's true, as I said in this post,

His jump in statistics at age 25 is more likely to be real than someone who puts their first great year at 29 or 30.

But more telling, I believe, is that DePodesta offered six years guaranteed, although at a lower yearly rate (how much lower isn't clear). That DePodesta made that kind of offer tells me Paul believes there's a lot of future value in Beltre.

The second idea is that it's okay for the Yankees to trade Eric Duncan because A-Rod is blocking him at third. This reminds me of the Red Sox trading Jeff Bagwell because Scott Cooper was blocking him at third. Remember the defensive spectrum:

<-- Increasing need for defense
P  C  SS  2B  CF  3B  RF  LF  1B  DH
Increasing need for offense -->

A good offensive player who is blocked at third has plenty of room to move right on this spectrum. And a great defensive third baseman can actually move left to 2nd or even short. Remember Cal Ripken? I don't know enough about Duncan to say where he could be moved, but the idea that he couldn't play on the Yankees because of A-Rod is incorrect.

Update: ESPN is saying that the Johnson deal is not as close as reported last night.

Tangotiger is once again asking fans to fill in a survey to help determine who are the best fielders in the major leagues. If you've watched many games this season, take a few minutes to fill out his forms.

Lost in the Cardinals ineptitude this series is the fine defensive play by Larry Walker. He's made good catches, and at least three times he's held hard hit balls over his head to singles. He just cut off a Nixon double in the outfield with a terrific slide and scoop to prevent a triple.

Jim Edmonds just made one of the finest catches you'll ever see. Watching games, one gets a good feel for when players are going to make a catch or not. I didn't think he had a chance at this one. But Edmonds turned on the after burners, dove, and made a spectacular catch going toward the wall. He saved two runs for the Cardinals.

The Astros are getting the ball in the air against Suppan. He tends to get ground balls, so that's not a good sign for Jeff.

With Pujols and Rolen on first and second, Edmonds hits a fly ball to left. It was deep, but it wasn't to the warning track. Pujols and Edmonds both tagged up and Biggio's throw to third wasn't close. Renteria comes through with his 2nd hit of the game to drive both in. A great example of exploiting a weakness.

Update: And it chases Munro. Harville is on to try to put out the fire.

Update: Harville gives up a double to Sanders. St. Louis is finally showing some offensive depth in the series.

Update: Harville comes back to strike out the M&M battery. It's 4-2 after three. Slugfest, anyone?

Lance Berkman looked like he got his foot caught on a Larry Walker line drive, and Larry winds up on third. The Cards power doesn't need any help from the opposition defense.

Update: Yep. Pujols follows with his own 2-run homer to tie the game with 1 out in the first.

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Peter Gammons pens a piece on how the Moneyball GM's are looking for new ways to quantify defense.

Some teams are trying to quantify defensive statistics. "It's not a pure science yet, but we're trying to get to what were the great unknowns -- defense and baserunning," says one club official. "How Theo does it and how we do it entails very different methodology," says Beane. "But we usually come out at the same conclusions."

Last winter, Oakland and Boston agreed that the two best defensive center fielders were Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay. They agreed the best third basemen were Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez. They agreed that by any method used Jose Valentin came out a much better shortstop than the guy that most people suggest should be made into a super utilityman. The Mets utilized defensive numbers in targeting Cameron.

Since teams have studied the creation of runs and the use of outs offensively, it should be no surprise that teams are trying to quantify outs defensively. No team currently will say exactly how it does its defensive ratings. As Beane said, the A's use a different system than the Red Sox. "We've come to believe that our numbers give us a pretty accurate read," he says.

The Red Sox have their own service that charts games, including how hard balls are hit. "It goes beyond zone ratings," says Epstein. "We try to measure players by what the average defensive player at that position would get to."

UZR gets a nice mention in the piece, also. I did some work along these lines last year.

The Marlins just scored three runs on a bases loaded single. It was a medium seeing eye hit that trickled through the infield. Hidalgo tried to throw out the runner trying to score from 2nd (2 outs), but the throw got by the catcher, and Seo wasn't backing up, allowing the third run to score. The Mets announcers are ripping Seo for not being in position.

When the ball was hit, Seo started for first base, because the ball was not hit hard and he thought he would have to cover. But when the ball went through for a hit, Seo stopped in his tracks and threw his head down as if he were cursing. Only too late did he start for the plate.

From the talk of the announcers, it doesn't sound like the first time a Mets pitcher has been out of position on a play like this. To me, that's bad coaching. My feeling is that managers have two main functions in regards to the game; making sure the players are prepared (well coached), and putting individuals into situations where their is a high probability of success. It looks like the Mets coaching staff is failing in the preparedness arena.

The Red Sox are starting Doug Mientkiewicz at second base tonight, due to injuries. He played in one game there for the Twins in 2003, but did not get a chance to make a play. In the first inning tonight, with a man on 1st and 1 out, Wells hit a ball up the middle. Doug made a nice play to glove the ball, step on 2nd for the force, then an off-balance throw to get Wells at first and complete the DP. Not bad for a first baseman. He certainly hits more like a 2nd baseman. Maybe this is the start of a new career. :-)

Nice play by Carlos Lee to start off the Twins-White Sox game. Stewart hits the ball between the third baseman and the line. It looks like a sure double, but Lee gets over quickly, barehands the ball and fires a strike to get Shannon at second.

Sammy Sosa had a tough first couple of balls. Ichiro and Pudge each sent low fly balls to the fence in the right field corner, and Sosa couldn't come up with either. The double and triple end Roger Clemens streak of not allowing a base runner as a starter in the All-Star game.

The AL may hit for the cycle this inning. Manny just hit a 1-out, 2-run homer.

Update: After Giambi reaches on a Kent error, Jeter singles for the cycle. According to Fox, it was the first time a double, triple and HR had been hit in the same inning in the All-Star game, so it's also the first time a cycle has been hit in the inning.

Soriano follows up with a three-run HR, and the AL leads 6-0. Mulder gets to bat before he gets to pitch.

Update: Mulder strikes out to end the inning. Six runs, three earned for Clemens in the first.

Ramon Martinez, shortstop for the Cubs, just made a neat catch. Jenkins popped one up into the outfield between third and short. Instead of getting under the ball, Martinez made an underhand/backhand catch to the side of his body, and he did it so nonchalantly that it looked like he did it all the time. That made 3-4 hitters 0 for 3 in the game so far, as Davis got Sosa and Alou in the first.

I complain about Derek Jeter's defense a lot, but he just made one of those plays that makes it easy to forgive him for his limited range on ground balls. Men on 2nd and 3rd in the top of the 12th, two outs, Nixon hits a flair down the left field line. Jeter went all out, caught the ball in fair territory, and then his momentum carried him head first into the stands. He came out bloodied, but he held on to the ball. He played it like it was the 7th game of the world series. Giambi will bat for him in the bottom of the 12th after a Cairo triple leading off the inning.

Update: Millar comes in from the outfield to be a fifth infielder. Big shift on Giambi, but Millar is playing as if he's at third.

Update: Giambi strikes out. He looks thin after his illness.

Update: They put a shift on for Sheffield, moving Millar to first this time, but Leskanic hits Sheffield. 1st and 3rd with one out for A-Rod, and Millar moves back to the outfield.

Update: A-Rod is walked to load the bases. Millar is coming back into the infield to play first and McCarty is moved between 2nd and 1st again. Bubba Crosby batting.

Update: Crosby grounds to Reese, who gets the force at the plate. It's up to Bernie Williams, who is 0 for 5 today, defense back to normal.

Update:Williams strikes out, and looked bad doing so. To the 13th. This is one of the best Yankees-Red Sox game I've seen in a long time. Both teams have had plenty of chances, but great plays and great pitching in tough situations have prevailed so far.

I'm just wondering how many Red Sox fans flashed back to Bill Buckner when the ball went by Ortiz for two runs?

Craig Biggio popped up the first pitch from Matt Clement, but Aramis Ramirez lost the ball in the sun and let it drop in foul territory. Biggo took the next pitch into the stands for a HR. Ramirez was not given an error on the dropped fly, so it will be an earned run against Clement.

I saw one of the worst defensive plays I've ever seen today in the Mets-Yankees game. In the top of the fourth, with runners on 1st and third, Reyes tries to steal 2nd. Halsey, however, has Reyes picked off. Giambi takes the ball, and instead of turning and throwing to 2nd, looks at the runner at third, Phillips, who is going nowhere. Giambi misses his chance to get Reyes, never even throwing to 2nd for what should have been an easy out. Kaz Matsui then singles in both runners, chasing Halsey from the game.

Halsey did not have his control today, walking five. So you can't blame his early departure on Giambi. But Jason, although not charged with an error, cost the young lefty a run.

Al Leiter gets only his third win in 12 starts, despite a 2.34 ERA. He struggled at times, but shutdown A-Rod and Giambi, who were batting with plenty of men on base today.

Andrew Godfrey points out the Chipper Jones has moved back to third base. Atlanta has had the worst offensive third basemen in the league this year, mostly Mark DeRosa. However, they've replaced Jones in LF with former Cardinals catcher Eli Marrero, who is not exactly a great offensive player, either. Part of the move is due to Chipper's injury:

An injured right hamstring forced Chipper Jones to the bench, and he still can't run well enough to cover the outfield. He had been taking grounders at first in the past few weeks and was expected to play there; instead, the 1999 NL MVP replaced Mark DeRosa at third.

Chipper Jones declined to speak with reporters after the game. Earlier in the day, he appeared to relish the opportunity to return to the infield, even though he bumped one of his best friends out of the lineup.

"Third is my natural position, I feel comfortable there," Jones said. "I've never played an inning at first. It just seemed like the natural thing to do."

The question for me is, what are the Braves going to do long term. Chipper was moved to left field, after all, because he's not a good third baseman. So do the Braves look for a hitter who can play left field (not that hard to find) or a glove man who can play third base and hit enough so as not to be a liability (harder to find)?

The sports section of my local paper, The Republican, had this column by Garry Brown entitled "Pokey's the (Glove) Man." In it, Brown argues that Youkilis should be benched, Bellhorn should be playing third and Reese should be the everyday second baseman.

Before a national television audience Sunday night, Pokey Reese's performance made one thing perfectly clear: He should be the everyday second baseman for the Boston Red Sox.

Reese drew a standing ovation for his defense, but that's not his only game. He also delivered a two-run double. He's batting .264 with 24 RBIs, nice production for the last man in the lineup.

Red Sox manager Terry Francona has indicated that he wants to use a "rotation" in order to give playing time to deserving infielders. Mainly, that rotation would involve Reese and Mark Bellhorn at second base, Bellhorn and rookie Kevin Youkilis at third. Under the Francona plan, Reese also would get some time at shortstop if and when Nomar Garciaparra needs a day off.

After Sunday's game, though, it seemed obvious that Francona had his best available infield on the diamond as the Red Sox defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1. The key move was using Bellhorn at third and sending Youkilis to the bench. The kid called "You" has done an excellent job since being recalled from Triple A to replaced the disabled Bill Mueller, but the Sox likely would be better served by having both Reese and Bellhorn on the field every day.

Is that indeed the best combination for the Red Sox? Let's look at the win shares, shall we?

Through June 10	Bellhorn	Youkilis	Reese
Games	55	21	55
Batting Win Shares	6.4	2.9	1.4
Fielding Win Shares	1.9	0.6	2.0
Total Win Shares	8	3	3

The two things I see from this data is that Youkilis is generating wins at twice the rate of Pokey Reese. When you're in second, 3 1/2 games back, generating wins is the most important thing to do! The second thing I see is that Reese and Bellhorn are about even in defense. Reese should be ahead due to the fact that he's been playing short most of the year, which gives you a bonus in win shares. So the fact that they're that close tells me that Bellhorn has been doing a good job at 2nd base.

Right now, the lineup that will give the Red Sox the best chance of winning has Youkilis at third and Bellhorn at 2nd. Use Pokey when Lowe pitches or as a late inning defensive replacement. But don't start him everyday just because he makes a spectacular play once in a while.

Fielding win shares have a bias toward the more difficult defensive positions. So you would expect catchers, shortstops and 2nd basemen to accumulate the most defensive win shares. So it's impressive that Johnny Damon is leading the AL in this category. I'm also impressed to see Marco Scutaro as the best middle infielder in the league.

Matt Treanor, a 28 year-old catcher, is making his major league debut for the Marlins today, answering the question about who would be the solution to the Fish's backstop problems.

The Marlins are a bit short behind the plate tonight. With Mike Redmond injured, Ramon Castro went down in the 2nd. Mike Mordecai has taken over behind the plate, the 2nd time he's been called upon to catch in his major league career. He's done a good job; as the announcers observed, they haven't had to comment on the job he's doing, so Mike's getting it done. There have been a couple of stolen bases against him, but the one I saw, the throw from Mike was real close. The real question, what are the Marlins going to do long term if both Redmond and Castro are injured?

I complain about Derek Jeter's defense enough, but I just saw him make a very nice play. He ranged past 2nd base to take a hit away from Michael Young and throw him out at first. Jeter appears to be moving faster in the field this year.

Bob McManaman takes a look at the defense that helped Johnson score a perfect game last night. It was tough to see the ball last night, and Steve Finley used the Mike Cameron method of going to where he thinks the ball will land.

With darkening clouds drifting over Turner Field at dusk, fly balls were virtually impossible to spot. Finley said he was able to guess correctly with communication from Gonzalez and Cintron.

"You can see it come off the bat, and then you try to pick a spot where you think it's going to land within about 10 or 15 feet," Finley said. "They aren't easy here, though. It's tough to pick up fly balls in this park."

It should be noted that Johnson striking out nearly half the batters meant that the defense didn't have as much to do. Nonetheless, they performed flawlessly as well.

Posada at 2nd, two out, top of the 9th. Bernie Williams lines a single into right. It's not hit that hard, so Posada tries to score, but Vlad throws a perfect strike to Jose Molina at catcher to nab Posada at the plate. It's the third baserunning blunder of the game for the Yankees. What I want to know is, why didn't they pinch run for Posada? Is there no one on the bench faster than him?

Also, it looks like on the replay that the ball beat Posada, but not the tag. He sure looked safe in slow motion.

Update: The Angels make their own baserunning blunder. Guillen leads off the ninth with a single, and is pinch run for with Amezaga. Amezaga then gets himself picked off. This game will make a good lesson on how not to run the bases.

Mike at Mike's Baseball Rants documents a play by Tomas Perez and clarifies the infield fly rule.

Steve Bonner writes to me that the Yankees defense has improved, and he gives a humorous explanation why. However, he doesn't list DER, so gave a look to the graphs at The Hardball Times (scroll down to the pitching and fielding graph). It shows the Yankees with an above average DER! I, for one, am shocked. Let's start with my favorite whipping boy, Derek Jeter. Jeter is above average in range factor this year, for the first time in his career. Now, there are a lot of problems with range factor; it's highly influenced by a team's pitching staff. And while Kevin Brown may be getting more ground balls to the infield, the lack of lefties in the Yankees rotation means they are seeing fewer right-handed batters. (A quick check confirms this. Last year 56.8% of opposition AB were by right handers, this year, 55%.) So Jeter is doing something to make more plays. Maybe A-Rod is saying, "I would have had that," everytime a ball goes under Jeter's glove. Or maybe Jeter took all the Rodriguez should play short arguments to heart and actually did something about his defense. Either way, it's working.

I suspect Bernie Williams move mostly out of centerfield has a made a big difference too. Kenny Lofton is still an above average CF, while Bernie just can't chase down fly balls anymore.

The defense looks stronger at two positions that have been weak over the last few years. That's a very good sign for Yankees fans.

The Braves just turned a 5-4-3 triple play. Kerry Robinson was the batter, who hit a hard grounder to third where Hessman stepped on the bag, then fired around the horn to end the inning.

Mike Cusick sends me a link to this article about the poor relationship between the Giants pitchers and A.J. Pierzynski.

But several pitchers disagreed, and questioned Pierzynski's work ethic. The latest incident occurred before Wednesday's game, when two players confirmed Pierzynski ignored starting pitcher Brett Tomko's request to go over opposing hitters. Instead, the players said, Pierzynski resumed playing cards for another 20 minutes.

"I've never in all my years seen a catcher who didn't watch video before games," one pitcher said. "He doesn't watch hitters - other than the Twins games when they're on TV."

Does anyone know if this went on when he was with the Twins? That's pretty poor form, not to go over hitters with the starter before the game. Mike is wondering if this is why the Giants pitchers are doing so poorly. I don't know, but it's a good place to start laying blame.

Jason Schmidt allowed a leadoff triple to Terrance Long in the 2nd. He got a groundout and a strikeout to keep Long at third and face the opposing pitcher. But Peavy hit the ball to the hole side of shortstop, and Perez couldn't backhand it and wound up with an error. Since Neifi's main job is to play defense, it would be nice for him to come up with the tough plays.

Bonds strikes out to start the 2nd for the Giants.

A nice win by the Expos tonight. They threw out two Mets at the plate to preserve a 2-1 victory. Glavine pitched well enough to win, but Livan Hernandez pitched better tonight.

The Red Sox have an interesting problem shaping up at 2nd base, albeit a good one to have. With both Bellhorn and Reese playing, Mark is showing that he's a supreior offensive player to Pokey. Bellhorn's OBA is almost twice as high as Reese's. When Garciaparra comes back from his injury, the Red Sox will need to decide if they want Reese's defense or Bellhorn's ability to get on base in the lineup everyday.

Michael Young just made consecutive throwing errors. The threw wide to first, then on a double play ball, threw past Soriano. You might say he "Chucked" them.

Update: Adam Kennedy makes the errors very costly as he hits a three-run HR to give the Angels a 3-1 lead. Young gets his arm back to throw out Eckstein for the 2nd out.

I was scoring the Mets-Braves game last night for work. One of the things I love about scoring is that it really makes you pay attention to what is going on. I told my wife the score (18-10), and she asked if that was a slugfest. I said yes, but after sleeping on it, I'm not sure that was correct. It seems to me it was an example of the deadly combination of having a pitching staff that doesn't strike out batters combined with a porous defense. The Braves had 19 hits, but 13 were singles, and only one was a HR. There were any number of balls hit that better fielders would have at least kept on the infield. Wigginton looked particularly bad to me; I kept seeing balls go by him that good third basemen would have dove. Ty seemed frozen on his feet.

I was also more impressed with Kaz Matsui's offense than his defense. He was selective at the plate and looks like a very good hitter. But I expected him to be a wizard with the glove, and last night he looked more like Derek Jeter than Ozzie Smith.

Scoring ten runs was great, but they are going to need to do that quite often if they are going to win regularly with that defense.

The DRays have loaded the bases against Rivera in the 9th with 1 out. The Yankees are playing the infield back, except for Clark at first. Sort of the opposite of the end of the 2001 World Series, where the Yankees brought the infield in and Luis Gonzalez popped one over Jeter. Torre makes the right decision this time as Fordyce grounds into a 5-3 double play to end the game.

Soriano just got a hold of one, and Mark Kotsay made an amazing grab. Kelty had lost the ball, and Mark came out of nowhere to make a one-handed grab at the 362 mark in left-center.

Miguel Tejada has really impressed me with his defense tonight. He's smooth, he fields cleanly, has a rifle of an arm, and isn't afraid to stay in on the double play. The Orioles fans are in for a real treat this year.

Johnny Damon hits a slow roller down the first base line. Ponson alertly hits Damon in the back with the ball, because he was running inside the baseline. Nice heads up play by Ponson.

Mazilli send Bigbie up to bunt with no out and runners on 1st and 2nd. Bigbie quickly gets two strikes, but nubs one back to the mound. Pedro's only play is at first, but he looks at second, then throws wildly, allowing a run to score and men on 2nd and 3rd.

Pedro has not been sharp. He hit Segui, he's leaving pitches over the plate, and his control is not there. Matos just got a hit and an RBI. This is not what Red Sox fans want to see.

Mora gets thrown out at third to end the 1st, then with one out makes the Orioles first error of the year, allowing Gabe Kapler to reach first. Not a great way to start the season.

For the 2nd time in the game, a Devil Ray went from 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball to Kenny Lofton.

I've seen A-Rod have three chances at third, and he's looked very good to me so far. He just stopped a ball from going down the line, but failed to get the runner at 2nd (Sanchez was running on the play). I did get a flashback of Nettles watching that play, and I didn't expect to get that from Alex.

Gabe Kapler just made a great play at third base. He's filling in for the injured Bill Mueller, but on that play you'd think he was the regular third baseman. He charged a slow roller, fielded the ball with his glove hand waist high and made a perfect throw to first to catch the runner by a step. Got a great cheer from the crowd, too.

I'm watching the Padres-Cubs game, and the Padres have started Ryan Klesko in left field. It's been pretty ugly out there. He missed a short pop. Balls are ricocheting around him. And finally, a long fly was hit to the wall. Klesko went back, but had no idea where the ball would come down. Kingsdale, the centerfielder, came all the way over to left to jump and save a HR. If Klesko is going to be a regular in left, the CF is going to have to do a lot of work to take some pressure off Ryan.

Reggie Sanders just did a header into one of the ads covering the chain link fence at the St. Louis spring ballpark. It looked bad on the replay, but he got up and is still in left field, no worse for wear.

I'm seeing the potential problems Kevin Brown is going to have this summer. Balls are being hit on the ground, and they are not being handled cleanly. The Phillies have four hits, only one on a line drive. Two outfield assists have kept the Phillies off the scoreboard, but you can't depend on your opponents making baserunning blunders during the regular season. Yankees infielders should be taking a couple of hours of ground balls each every day this spring.

The first ball in play is hit to A-Rod at third. He didn't look too smooth, backing up and taking the ball on an in-between hop, but he made the play.

Update: With Rollins on first, Michaels hit a shot past A-Rod at third, but Matsui threw out Rollins trying to take an extra base. Jeter makes a high throw, but in plenty of time, to end the inning. Brown faced four batters in the inning, got four ground balls but the defense was less than stellar.

TangoTiger has a neat project at BaseballStuff.com. He wants fans to evaluate different attributes of players defense based on what you've seen at the ballpark and on television. I think this is a great idea. Collections of humans can act like a giant multi-processor computer, where each processor is doing the same task in a slightly different way. The aggregate of these opinions is usually the right answer. (That's why football point spreads are so good. They are set by the betting of an enormous group of experts.) If you've seen players enough that you have an opinion about their defense, stop by and fill out the survey. I can't wait to see the results, and how they might compare to other statistical measures of defense.

David Gerstman sent me this article in the NY Times about how Mike Cameron goes about chasing down flyballs. I found this part very interesting.

As a safety on the LaGrange football team, Cameron could watch a quarterback wind up to throw and guess within about a 5-yard radius where the ball would land.

Coming up in the White Sox organization, he played alongside Michael Jordan, and tested better in almost every category. But Cameron failed to reach some flies because he was trying to watch the ball while in full stride.

Cameron has since learned to trust his football instincts. When the ball leaves the bat, he immediately estimates where it may end up. Then he puts his head down and takes full advantage of his speed. Cameron appears faster on the field than on the basepaths because, unlike many center fielders, he hardly worries about tracking the ball when it's in flight.

"I just know where it's going to be," he said. "I have developed a sense of the trajectory of the baseball. The sound of the bat can sometimes be a mirage, but the trajectory gives you an exact sense of where the ball is headed."

The interesting thing is, that's not how it's done normally. There was a very interesting study done that was published in Science in 1995 showing how players follow fly balls. (I believe they attached cameras to the fielders heads.) The summary of the article is here. Cameron appears to be able to figure out this trajectory without looking, which would be a great advantage.

According to this article by Danny Knobler, a member of the Tigers has not won a gold glove award since Gary Pettis in 1989. With the addition of I-Rod and Vina, Knobler thinks that streak might be over. The pitching coach thinks the better defense will help his staff:

With or without an award, there's little doubt the Tigers will be better defensively this year. They should be better behind the plate (although Brandon Inge wasn't bad last year), and much better in the middle of the infield, with Vina and new shortstop Carlos Guillen.

"That's big, very big, especially for me," pitching coach Bob Cluck said. "Because I'm a good-glove pitching coach. Our whole philosophy is to put the ball in play early, and put it on the ground.

"Last year, we had range problems."

What he means is, the Tigers' worst-in-the-AL .978 fielding percentage didn't tell the whole story, because it didn't count the number of balls that went past infielders for hits. Many of those same balls figure to be outs this year.

According to the Probabilistic Model of Range, the Tigers had the 2nd worst range in the majors last year. Guillen was above average at shortstop last year, while Vina was below average (I don't know how much his injury contributed to that). So they should be improved up the middle this year.

However, given what we now know about pitchers being rather unable to control what happens when the ball is put into play, maybe Bob Cluck should rethink his philosophy and try to get his staff to strike out more batters.

Avkash Patel at the raindrops uses four different defensive measures to rate fielders, including my probabilistic model of range. The results are interesing. However, the way runs are calculated using PMR is very simple. UZR, I believe, looks at whether fielders are giving up doubles vs. singles, so my guess is that the runs calculated by UZR are much more accurate at this point.

Jurgen at some calzone for derek takes a look at how good Alex Rodgriuez might be defensively at third base.

A number of people have pointed out that Gary Sheffield has offered to play third base for the Yankees (Dom Cento had suggested the idea here):

The Yankees' newest outfielder offered his infield services to GM Brian Cashman, even though he hasn't played third in 11 years. Cashman wouldn't rule out the possibility - "you never know with this team," he said - but added that, at this point, it's not a realistic scenario.

Still, Cashman marveled at Sheffield's willingness to help his team.

"This is a man I don't know very well at all," Cashman said. "But this showed me something. Let's put it this way: (The offer) will go a long way."

Sheffield has a reputation as a bit of a selfish player. I especially remember his time in Milwaukee, where it seemed to me he was not playing up to his potential because he didn't want to play there. This seems like a pretty selfless move, but it could also be low risk. Gary may realize that there's little chance of the Yankees making this switch, so he'll come out looking like the good guy. Still, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say, "Bravo."

It also just goes to show how hard it is to find a good thirdbaseman. Compared to shortstops for example, how many really great third basemen are out there? Rolen, Chavez, maybe Glaus and who? Blalock is still young. Koskie's pretty good, but doesn't get a lot of publicity. After those, however, there's not much. It will be interesting to see how creative (or uncreative) the Yankees get in solving the problem.

My solution to use Pudge
may not be viable much longer.

Dom Cento points out in the comments to this post on Boone that Gary Sheffield used to be a third baseman. Why not move him to third and have three center fielders in the outfield? It'll be a really bad defensive infield, but you don't have to out and buy anymore players.

Michael Humphreys sends this link to a detail DRA summary from 1974-2001, including a spreadsheet you can download.

Aaron Gleeman breaks down the Angels options in the outfield and concludes that Erstad is not the person to move to first base. I made a similar comment here.

To help out with a study comparing my probabilistic model of range to MGL's UZR, here's Steve Finely broken down by field slice and by batted ball type (in the field slice, C would be the third base line and X would be first base. MN is straight away center field):

Steve Finley, 2003 by Field Slice

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
J	5.8	0.033	4.0	0.023	-0.01052
K	39.0	0.236	38.0	0.230	-0.00597
L	43.7	0.289	40.0	0.265	-0.02425
M	61.1	0.284	61.0	0.284	-0.00028
N	34.3	0.195	37.0	0.210	0.01532
O	43.5	0.315	43.0	0.312	-0.00341
P	29.2	0.226	28.0	0.217	-0.00918
Q	9.8	0.091	6.0	0.056	-0.03544
R	3.1	0.018	1.0	0.006	-0.01254

Steve Finley, 2003 by Batted Ball Type

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
F	248.6	0.355	236.0	0.337	-0.01793
L	18.8	0.031	20.0	0.033	0.00196
P	3.5	0.012	2.0	0.007	-0.00499

Looks to me like Finley does not move well laterally.

MGL's UZR study for 2003 is up at Baseball Primer. In the disscussion, there's a link that compares my probabilistic system rankings of CF's to UZR.

I haven't posted much today, because I've been working on making my probabilistic range tables sortable. This has been fun for me, as I've learned how to write scripts in Python, which will open up lots of chances for me to do interactive projects on this web site. As a sample of what I'm trying to do, click for the chart of probabilistic range for right fieders. Click on any column heading to sort by that column.

Here's the table for MLB right fielders, minimum 200 balls in play when they're on the field:

Right Fielders

Fielder	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Tom Goodwin	13.2	0.061	17.0	0.078	0.01722
Eli Marrero	25.7	0.074	30.0	0.086	0.01234
Scott Podsednik	26.6	0.096	30.0	0.109	0.01220
Shannon Stewart	29.5	0.078	34.0	0.090	0.01207
Jason Michaels	13.8	0.067	16.0	0.077	0.01070
Marcus Thames	27.3	0.055	32.0	0.064	0.00935
Brian Buchanan	30.6	0.078	34.0	0.087	0.00875
Robby Hammock	10.9	0.045	13.0	0.054	0.00872
Jeff DaVanon	123.4	0.075	137.0	0.084	0.00830
Craig Wilson	71.1	0.085	78.0	0.093	0.00826
Jason Conti	22.9	0.079	25.0	0.087	0.00712
Michael Restovich	16.6	0.049	19.0	0.056	0.00707
Troy O'Leary	38.6	0.076	42.0	0.083	0.00675
Damian Rolls	41.5	0.061	46.0	0.068	0.00656
Michael Ryan	24.2	0.083	26.0	0.090	0.00617
Dustan Mohr	149.8	0.081	161.0	0.087	0.00609
Ryan Ludwick	47.0	0.072	51.0	0.078	0.00608
Orlando Palmeiro	86.0	0.087	91.0	0.092	0.00500
Gary Matthews Jr.	44.0	0.073	47.0	0.078	0.00495
David Dellucci	87.8	0.069	94.0	0.074	0.00485
Jose Cruz	317.2	0.079	336.0	0.083	0.00466
Eric Owens	52.0	0.074	55.0	0.078	0.00428
Austin Kearns	90.8	0.075	96.0	0.079	0.00427
Shane Spencer	74.0	0.075	78.0	0.079	0.00402
Kevin Millar	15.9	0.056	17.0	0.060	0.00384
Jacque Jones	22.1	0.087	23.0	0.090	0.00348
Raul Mondesi	262.4	0.072	274.0	0.075	0.00319
Alex Escobar	57.0	0.084	59.0	0.087	0.00288
Magglio Ordonez	305.4	0.077	316.0	0.080	0.00269
Ruben Sierra	16.2	0.056	17.0	0.058	0.00268
Juan Rivera	23.9	0.059	25.0	0.062	0.00263
Kerry Robinson	54.4	0.084	56.0	0.086	0.00253
Ichiro Suzuki	330.1	0.080	340.0	0.082	0.00239
Richard Hidalgo	268.7	0.077	277.0	0.079	0.00238
Ben Grieve	16.4	0.058	17.0	0.060	0.00221
Andres Torres	20.3	0.063	21.0	0.065	0.00214
Jeromy Burnitz	78.8	0.073	81.0	0.075	0.00206
Craig Monroe	70.3	0.074	72.0	0.075	0.00178
Jose Guillen	178.8	0.072	183.0	0.074	0.00170
Raul Gonzalez	39.9	0.064	41.0	0.065	0.00168
Juan Encarnacion	324.5	0.080	329.0	0.081	0.00111
Brady Clark	128.4	0.085	130.0	0.086	0.00107
Vladimir Guerrero	214.0	0.074	217.0	0.075	0.00105
Jody Gerut	123.4	0.072	125.0	0.072	0.00095
Michael Cuddyer	23.7	0.057	24.0	0.058	0.00082
Melvin Mora	20.7	0.063	21.0	0.064	0.00077
Jayson Werth	21.8	0.068	22.0	0.069	0.00077
Sammy Sosa	209.5	0.065	212.0	0.066	0.00077
Eric Valent	19.8	0.084	20.0	0.085	0.00066
Laynce Nix	60.5	0.078	61.0	0.079	0.00059
Dee Brown	39.8	0.100	40.0	0.101	0.00059
Bobby Kielty	142.0	0.067	143.0	0.067	0.00046
Danny Bautista	89.5	0.063	90.0	0.064	0.00038
Gabe Kapler	56.7	0.058	57.0	0.058	0.00030
Brian L. Hunter	17.9	0.086	18.0	0.086	0.00027
Reggie Sanders	154.8	0.072	155.0	0.072	0.00010
Rene Reyes	40.0	0.078	40.0	0.078	-0.00003
Bobby Abreu	304.3	0.073	304.0	0.073	-0.00007
Terrence Long	133.2	0.080	133.0	0.080	-0.00013
Bobby Higginson	249.5	0.075	249.0	0.075	-0.00014
Michael Tucker	82.2	0.071	82.0	0.071	-0.00020
John Vander Wal	161.0	0.079	160.0	0.078	-0.00050
Carl Everett	57.4	0.069	57.0	0.068	-0.00052
Matt Lawton	17.2	0.051	17.0	0.050	-0.00064
Ruben Mateo	76.8	0.078	76.0	0.077	-0.00081
Roger Cedeno	202.7	0.079	200.0	0.078	-0.00105
Trot Nixon	234.6	0.071	231.0	0.070	-0.00109
Ron Calloway	72.4	0.068	71.0	0.066	-0.00133
Jermaine Dye	104.2	0.066	102.0	0.065	-0.00141
Quinton McCracken	32.9	0.055	32.0	0.053	-0.00146
Xavier Nady	174.9	0.067	171.0	0.066	-0.00150
J.D. Drew	103.0	0.082	101.0	0.080	-0.00161
Larry Walker	236.3	0.066	230.0	0.064	-0.00176
Jason Tyner	30.9	0.088	30.0	0.085	-0.00248
Reed Johnson	92.3	0.054	88.0	0.052	-0.00252
Timo Perez	17.7	0.075	17.0	0.072	-0.00290
Mark Sweeney	12.6	0.060	12.0	0.057	-0.00304
Eduardo Perez	104.0	0.084	100.0	0.080	-0.00322
Jeffrey Hammonds	20.1	0.059	19.0	0.056	-0.00325
Aubrey Huff	198.8	0.075	190.0	0.072	-0.00334
Brandon Berger	16.7	0.081	16.0	0.078	-0.00336
Brad Wilkerson	20.0	0.067	19.0	0.063	-0.00343
Matt Stairs	59.0	0.054	55.0	0.050	-0.00365
Aaron Guiel	193.4	0.079	184.0	0.075	-0.00386
Karim Garcia	86.6	0.066	81.0	0.061	-0.00427
Gary Sheffield	300.3	0.075	283.0	0.071	-0.00436
Adam Piatt	11.2	0.044	10.0	0.039	-0.00454
Jay Gibbons	304.6	0.076	284.0	0.071	-0.00514
Frank Catalanotto	60.9	0.056	55.0	0.051	-0.00544
Desi Relaford	25.7	0.082	24.0	0.077	-0.00558
Tim Salmon	145.5	0.076	133.0	0.070	-0.00652
Jason Jones	26.1	0.084	24.0	0.077	-0.00664
Juan Gonzalez	109.2	0.075	99.0	0.068	-0.00696
Orlando Merced	31.0	0.075	28.0	0.068	-0.00727
Shawn Green	289.2	0.075	261.0	0.067	-0.00728
Darren Bragg	31.1	0.075	28.0	0.067	-0.00736
Mark Teixeira	17.0	0.077	15.0	0.068	-0.00903
George Lombard	23.2	0.108	21.0	0.098	-0.01014
Wily Mo Pena	25.6	0.079	22.0	0.068	-0.01109
Phil Nevin	55.0	0.078	47.0	0.066	-0.01128

Looks like Jose Cruz was the best in 2003.

Here are the center fielders, minimum 200 balls in play while they are in center field.

Center Fielders

CF	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Jody Gerut	23.9	0.070	29.0	0.085	0.01473
Tim Raines Jr.	30.1	0.111	34.0	0.125	0.01430
Gabe Kapler	19.6	0.082	23.0	0.096	0.01426
Jeff DaVanon	72.3	0.110	80.0	0.122	0.01167
Ryan Freel	45.1	0.085	50.0	0.095	0.00926
Laynce Nix	50.7	0.109	55.0	0.118	0.00920
Willie Harris	76.4	0.098	83.0	0.107	0.00848
Carl Crawford	31.4	0.096	34.0	0.104	0.00788
Aaron Rowand	93.2	0.083	101.0	0.090	0.00692
Jeff Duncan	128.0	0.110	136.0	0.117	0.00688
Andruw Jones	362.1	0.088	390.0	0.095	0.00678
Wilkin Ruan	20.3	0.073	22.0	0.079	0.00608
Mark Kotsay	307.0	0.097	324.0	0.102	0.00535
Carlos Beltran	351.5	0.096	371.0	0.101	0.00531
Brian Jordan	29.7	0.123	31.0	0.129	0.00530
Milton Bradley	233.6	0.088	245.0	0.092	0.00427
Mike Cameron	467.5	0.120	484.0	0.125	0.00424
Raul Gonzalez	36.7	0.107	38.0	0.111	0.00386
Tike Redman	122.3	0.088	127.0	0.091	0.00341
Darin Erstad	184.3	0.107	190.0	0.110	0.00329
Torii Hunter	412.0	0.101	425.0	0.104	0.00319
Quinton McCracken	18.2	0.066	19.0	0.069	0.00306
Randy Winn	58.7	0.133	60.0	0.136	0.00291
Brian Giles	38.8	0.094	40.0	0.097	0.00290
Alex Sanchez	369.6	0.099	378.0	0.101	0.00225
Dave Roberts	196.8	0.083	202.0	0.085	0.00218
Gary Matthews Jr.	161.3	0.086	165.0	0.088	0.00195
Scott Podsednik	309.6	0.091	316.0	0.093	0.00188
Jim Edmonds	329.1	0.102	334.0	0.104	0.00154
Chone Figgins	106.3	0.096	108.0	0.098	0.00153
Johnny Damon	357.3	0.092	363.0	0.093	0.00147
Ryan Christenson	132.1	0.097	134.0	0.099	0.00140
Hideki Matsui	108.3	0.087	110.0	0.088	0.00136
Joe Borchard	31.8	0.081	32.0	0.082	0.00055
Chris Singleton	175.0	0.078	176.0	0.079	0.00044
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	89.7	0.110	90.0	0.110	0.00042
Gene Kingsale	51.8	0.084	52.0	0.084	0.00037
Preston Wilson	330.0	0.076	330.0	0.076	-0.00001
Luis Matos	299.9	0.102	299.0	0.102	-0.00031
Endy Chavez	279.1	0.089	278.0	0.088	-0.00036
Juan Pierre	403.6	0.094	402.0	0.094	-0.00037
Kenny Lofton	316.5	0.090	315.0	0.090	-0.00042
Eric Byrnes	164.1	0.081	163.0	0.080	-0.00052
Doug Glanville	145.1	0.093	144.0	0.093	-0.00069
Vernon Wells	386.4	0.086	383.0	0.085	-0.00076
Eric Owens	100.7	0.109	100.0	0.108	-0.00078
Craig Biggio	330.8	0.086	327.0	0.085	-0.00098
Corey Patterson	154.4	0.079	152.0	0.078	-0.00121
Austin Kearns	104.3	0.099	103.0	0.098	-0.00123
Roger Cedeno	31.6	0.078	31.0	0.076	-0.00144
Carl Everett	163.8	0.094	161.0	0.092	-0.00161
Wily Mo Pena	58.1	0.090	57.0	0.089	-0.00171
Marlon Byrd	302.0	0.089	295.0	0.087	-0.00206
Shane Victorino	22.7	0.076	22.0	0.074	-0.00232
Rocco Baldelli	446.8	0.107	437.0	0.105	-0.00234
Marquis Grissom	353.3	0.095	343.0	0.092	-0.00277
Ricky Ledee	66.7	0.073	64.0	0.070	-0.00294
Timo Perez	101.2	0.096	98.0	0.093	-0.00303
Ruben Mateo	27.1	0.084	26.0	0.080	-0.00341
Brian L. Hunter	11.7	0.054	11.0	0.050	-0.00343
Reggie Taylor	86.3	0.096	83.0	0.092	-0.00369
Andres Torres	83.4	0.094	80.0	0.090	-0.00381
Steve Finley	270.9	0.081	258.0	0.077	-0.00388
Jeromy Burnitz	63.1	0.081	60.0	0.077	-0.00398
Adam Hyzdu	33.6	0.095	32.0	0.090	-0.00442
Ruben Rivera	29.0	0.129	28.0	0.124	-0.00460
Tom Goodwin	35.7	0.078	33.0	0.072	-0.00603
Ben Petrick	29.3	0.080	27.0	0.074	-0.00624
Danny Bautista	33.6	0.083	31.0	0.076	-0.00646
Ken Griffey Jr.	96.7	0.083	89.0	0.077	-0.00660
Bernie Williams	311.5	0.101	291.0	0.094	-0.00661
Jeffrey Hammonds	28.2	0.089	26.0	0.082	-0.00690
Brad Wilkerson	78.2	0.079	71.0	0.072	-0.00730
Michael Tucker	65.6	0.088	60.0	0.080	-0.00745
J.D. Drew	56.6	0.095	52.0	0.087	-0.00765
Coco Crisp	136.0	0.096	125.0	0.089	-0.00776
Damian Jackson	24.4	0.080	22.0	0.072	-0.00778
Ramon Nivar	76.3	0.114	70.0	0.105	-0.00938
Jolbert Cabrera	54.1	0.077	47.0	0.067	-0.01013
Kerry Robinson	21.4	0.092	19.0	0.082	-0.01027
Melvin Mora	25.7	0.099	23.0	0.088	-0.01042
Armando Rios	44.1	0.097	39.0	0.086	-0.01134
Karim Garcia	24.5	0.111	22.0	0.100	-0.01144
Darren Bragg	27.7	0.077	23.0	0.064	-0.01307
Donnie Sadler	37.6	0.107	33.0	0.094	-0.01319
Jose Macias	31.4	0.122	27.0	0.105	-0.01686
Dustan Mohr	25.6	0.123	22.0	0.106	-0.01711
Lew Ford	23.3	0.091	18.0	0.071	-0.02090
Orlando Palmeiro	30.9	0.101	24.0	0.078	-0.02246

This list looks right to me. Andruw Jones first among regulars, Bernie Williams last. It also confirms that the Yankees should move Matsui to centerfield, and not try to pick up Kenny Lofton.

Here's the table for left fielders:

Leftfielders

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Jeffrey Hammonds	17.2	0.070	21.0	0.086	0.01531
Marvin Benard	27.1	0.080	31.0	0.092	0.01154
Ryan Ludwick	30.4	0.076	35.0	0.088	0.01153
Kerry Robinson	15.4	0.053	18.0	0.061	0.00885
Jeff Conine	45.6	0.060	52.0	0.068	0.00830
Dustan Mohr	49.4	0.073	55.0	0.081	0.00828
Coco Crisp	79.1	0.074	88.0	0.082	0.00826
Ron Calloway	83.8	0.073	93.0	0.081	0.00803
Jermaine Clark	29.4	0.082	32.0	0.089	0.00734
Dave McCarty	10.4	0.046	12.0	0.052	0.00688
Raul Gonzalez	51.2	0.091	55.0	0.098	0.00680
Ben Petrick	32.3	0.074	35.0	0.080	0.00629
Joe Vitiello	12.4	0.047	14.0	0.053	0.00603
Reed Johnson	68.0	0.067	74.0	0.073	0.00593
Shane Victorino	15.9	0.072	17.0	0.077	0.00478
Dee Brown	20.4	0.060	22.0	0.065	0.00472
Miguel Cairo	25.2	0.062	27.0	0.067	0.00459
Jose Guillen	43.2	0.067	46.0	0.072	0.00439
Mark McLemore	26.5	0.074	28.0	0.078	0.00428
Carl Crawford	304.5	0.083	318.0	0.087	0.00369
Brad Wilkerson	159.7	0.075	167.0	0.078	0.00342
Reggie Sanders	63.7	0.063	67.0	0.066	0.00322
Karim Garcia	31.0	0.098	32.0	0.101	0.00314
Stephen Smitherman	16.2	0.057	17.0	0.060	0.00289
Troy O'Leary	15.8	0.040	17.0	0.042	0.00288
Juan Rivera	62.6	0.071	65.0	0.074	0.00270
Melvin Mora	114.3	0.078	118.0	0.080	0.00251
Barry Bonds	228.7	0.073	236.0	0.075	0.00232
Brian Jordan	59.7	0.055	62.0	0.057	0.00216
Albert Pujols	192.2	0.067	198.0	0.069	0.00202
Gabe Kapler	26.1	0.060	27.0	0.062	0.00196
Shane Spencer	99.8	0.067	102.0	0.068	0.00148
Garret Anderson	320.6	0.084	326.0	0.085	0.00141
Timo Perez	63.7	0.061	65.0	0.062	0.00125
Lance Berkman	248.3	0.063	253.0	0.064	0.00120
Jay Payton	294.9	0.073	299.0	0.074	0.00102
Cliff Floyd	156.7	0.067	159.0	0.068	0.00100
Geoff Jenkins	219.2	0.065	222.0	0.065	0.00081
Luis Gonzalez	246.2	0.063	249.0	0.064	0.00071
Jacque Jones	185.6	0.077	187.0	0.078	0.00060
Randy Winn	296.9	0.082	299.0	0.083	0.00057
Frank Catalanotto	90.2	0.061	91.0	0.062	0.00055
Adam Piatt	39.8	0.061	40.0	0.061	0.00026
Jody Gerut	79.8	0.083	80.0	0.084	0.00025
Raul Ibanez	230.3	0.070	231.0	0.070	0.00020
Moises Alou	203.0	0.061	203.0	0.061	0.00001
Jason Jones	17.0	0.060	17.0	0.060	-0.00009
Rondell White	218.5	0.073	218.0	0.073	-0.00017
Russell Branyan	30.1	0.080	30.0	0.080	-0.00027
Carlos Lee	309.3	0.077	308.0	0.077	-0.00032
Craig Monroe	149.1	0.074	148.0	0.074	-0.00055
Gene Kingsale	14.1	0.063	14.0	0.062	-0.00057
Kevin Millar	33.3	0.073	33.0	0.072	-0.00069
Hideki Matsui	212.2	0.068	210.0	0.068	-0.00072
Jason Tyner	16.2	0.065	16.0	0.064	-0.00091
Gary Matthews Jr.	37.6	0.062	37.0	0.061	-0.00106
Chipper Jones	206.4	0.052	202.0	0.051	-0.00112
Jeromy Burnitz	83.6	0.062	82.0	0.060	-0.00117
Jose Macias	51.0	0.063	50.0	0.061	-0.00120
Pedro Feliz	22.4	0.075	22.0	0.074	-0.00132
Tom Goodwin	16.3	0.081	16.0	0.079	-0.00138
Shannon Stewart	251.8	0.081	247.0	0.079	-0.00153
Dernell Stenson	37.7	0.090	37.0	0.088	-0.00166
Rickey Henderson	20.7	0.052	20.0	0.050	-0.00174
Brian Giles	254.5	0.075	248.0	0.073	-0.00193
Pat Burrell	241.6	0.067	234.0	0.065	-0.00209
Mark Smith	21.6	0.075	21.0	0.073	-0.00214
Carl Everett	65.8	0.078	64.0	0.075	-0.00216
Adam Dunn	211.2	0.079	205.0	0.076	-0.00231
Billy McMillon	48.6	0.073	47.0	0.071	-0.00247
Brady Clark	27.3	0.056	26.0	0.054	-0.00264
Miguel Cabrera	103.0	0.071	99.0	0.068	-0.00277
Larry Bigbie	158.9	0.078	153.0	0.075	-0.00287
Kevin Witt	20.8	0.079	20.0	0.075	-0.00307
Manny Ramirez	218.1	0.066	207.0	0.063	-0.00338
Todd Hollandsworth	111.1	0.074	106.0	0.071	-0.00339
Eric Byrnes	52.0	0.059	49.0	0.056	-0.00342
Ricky Ledee	36.3	0.072	34.0	0.068	-0.00461
Jason Bay	36.5	0.070	34.0	0.065	-0.00485
Orlando Palmeiro	53.6	0.079	50.0	0.073	-0.00523
Ruben Sierra	29.9	0.054	27.0	0.049	-0.00528
Terrence Long	114.5	0.067	105.0	0.062	-0.00557
Mike Kinkade	33.5	0.054	30.0	0.049	-0.00562
Dmitri Young	134.7	0.078	125.0	0.073	-0.00562
Jason Michaels	14.5	0.057	13.0	0.051	-0.00575
B.J. Surhoff	43.9	0.068	40.0	0.062	-0.00605
Kevin Mench	61.4	0.071	56.0	0.064	-0.00618
Brian Banks	29.9	0.067	27.0	0.060	-0.00647
Michael Tucker	34.8	0.066	31.0	0.059	-0.00719
Matt Lawton	128.4	0.076	116.0	0.068	-0.00730
Jolbert Cabrera	10.1	0.037	8.0	0.030	-0.00771
Mark Teixeira	16.4	0.062	14.0	0.053	-0.00927
Darren Bragg	32.2	0.074	28.0	0.065	-0.00962

Not surprising, the young speedster Carl Crawford does very well among regulars. A bit more surprising is that the old man, Barry Bonds, does very well also. I also don't think it's much of a surprise that Manny Ramirez is near the bottom of the pack.

Here's the chart for all major league 2nd basemen who were on the field for 200 balls in play:

Second Basemen

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Nick Punto	32.9	0.126	38.0	0.146	0.01938
Mike Bordick	44.3	0.147	49.0	0.163	0.01555
Aaron Boone	60.8	0.107	68.0	0.120	0.01262
Willie Harris	26.6	0.126	29.0	0.137	0.01125
Brian Roberts	329.0	0.112	358.0	0.122	0.00987
Matt Kata	142.5	0.120	154.0	0.130	0.00970
Joe McEwing	119.3	0.108	129.0	0.117	0.00873
Mark Ellis	525.4	0.133	556.0	0.141	0.00778
Brent Butler	53.2	0.108	57.0	0.116	0.00771
Pablo Ozuna	32.2	0.139	34.0	0.147	0.00767
Shane Halter	71.8	0.112	76.0	0.119	0.00663
Jolbert Cabrera	108.8	0.115	115.0	0.122	0.00656
Adam Kennedy	435.4	0.126	457.0	0.132	0.00627
Brandon Phillips	328.1	0.112	346.0	0.118	0.00612
Henry Mateo	80.0	0.119	84.0	0.125	0.00597
Zach Sorensen	21.7	0.100	23.0	0.106	0.00574
Mark Bellhorn	46.8	0.119	49.0	0.125	0.00570
Pokey Reese	124.2	0.147	129.0	0.153	0.00565
Damian Jackson	58.5	0.131	61.0	0.136	0.00563
Abraham O. Nunez	203.1	0.122	212.0	0.127	0.00535
Ray Olmedo	39.2	0.101	41.0	0.105	0.00463
Jeff Reboulet	202.5	0.111	211.0	0.115	0.00462
Marcus Giles	499.9	0.132	515.0	0.136	0.00400
Luis Castillo	460.8	0.118	476.0	0.121	0.00387
Brent Abernathy	34.1	0.134	35.0	0.137	0.00370
Jose Vizcaino	50.5	0.125	52.0	0.128	0.00359
Orlando Hudson	507.6	0.139	520.0	0.142	0.00339
Neifi Perez	135.4	0.120	139.0	0.123	0.00320
Mark Grudzielanek	332.8	0.120	341.0	0.123	0.00298
Placido Polanco	328.4	0.125	336.0	0.128	0.00289
Geoff Blum	55.7	0.116	57.0	0.118	0.00272
Miguel Cairo	104.5	0.112	107.0	0.115	0.00270
Juan Castro	156.4	0.115	160.0	0.118	0.00268
Dave Berg	64.6	0.122	66.0	0.125	0.00267
Rob Mackowiak	33.3	0.123	34.0	0.126	0.00251
Warren Morris	282.5	0.112	288.0	0.114	0.00219
Mark Loretta	447.9	0.118	455.0	0.120	0.00187
Desi Relaford	269.6	0.114	273.0	0.116	0.00144
Chris Gomez	56.4	0.112	57.0	0.114	0.00128
Frank Menechino	41.6	0.106	42.0	0.107	0.00102
Mendy Lopez	22.8	0.088	23.0	0.089	0.00087
Benji Gil	69.7	0.130	70.0	0.130	0.00061
Bo Hart	232.2	0.123	233.0	0.124	0.00042
Juan Uribe	44.9	0.151	45.0	0.152	0.00022
Tony Graffanino	81.1	0.140	81.0	0.139	-0.00010
Tony Womack	45.1	0.114	45.0	0.114	-0.00025
Junior Spivey	291.9	0.125	291.0	0.125	-0.00038
Mark DeRosa	85.5	0.121	85.0	0.121	-0.00076
Keith Ginter	138.1	0.099	137.0	0.099	-0.00078
Alfonso Soriano	508.7	0.119	505.0	0.119	-0.00086
Tomas Perez	67.6	0.130	67.0	0.129	-0.00118
Jerry Hairston Jr.	151.6	0.115	150.0	0.114	-0.00123
Michael Young	503.5	0.114	496.0	0.113	-0.00169
Alex Cora	378.8	0.124	373.0	0.122	-0.00192
Marlon Anderson	376.5	0.114	370.0	0.112	-0.00195
Enrique Wilson	24.5	0.104	24.0	0.102	-0.00196
Bill Hall	54.9	0.127	54.0	0.125	-0.00203
Eric Young	355.3	0.116	349.0	0.114	-0.00204
John McDonald	98.7	0.118	97.0	0.116	-0.00205
Ray Durham	345.2	0.132	339.0	0.130	-0.00236
Jeff Kent	391.8	0.122	384.0	0.119	-0.00241
D'Angelo Jimenez	422.7	0.112	413.0	0.109	-0.00255
Jose Vidro	424.6	0.119	415.0	0.117	-0.00271
Carlos Febles	185.8	0.115	181.0	0.112	-0.00297
Chase Utley	109.0	0.118	106.0	0.115	-0.00329
Terry Shumpert	30.9	0.115	30.0	0.112	-0.00344
Bret Boone	469.2	0.113	454.0	0.110	-0.00367
Ryan Freel	23.0	0.095	22.0	0.091	-0.00398
Todd Walker	454.8	0.125	439.0	0.121	-0.00435
Luis Rivas	400.4	0.111	382.0	0.106	-0.00512
Carlos Baerga	42.7	0.134	41.0	0.129	-0.00540
Angel Santos	70.3	0.122	67.0	0.116	-0.00575
Fernando Vina	184.2	0.113	174.0	0.106	-0.00623
Antonio Perez	73.3	0.093	68.0	0.087	-0.00679
Roberto Alomar	399.2	0.113	374.0	0.106	-0.00713
Denny Hocking	51.2	0.116	48.0	0.109	-0.00735
Ramon Santiago	180.0	0.121	169.0	0.114	-0.00742
Julius Matos	21.6	0.103	20.0	0.095	-0.00756
Ronnie Belliard	353.0	0.118	326.0	0.109	-0.00906
Chone Figgins	35.4	0.111	32.0	0.100	-0.01051
Marco Scutaro	65.6	0.110	59.0	0.099	-0.01100
Keith Lockhart	44.2	0.117	40.0	0.106	-0.01108
Danny Garcia	51.1	0.118	46.0	0.106	-0.01172
Bill Mueller	24.3	0.090	21.0	0.078	-0.01221
Ramon Martinez	98.6	0.115	88.0	0.102	-0.01232
Jay Bell	29.0	0.102	25.0	0.088	-0.01403
Andy Fox	29.2	0.103	25.0	0.088	-0.01480
Rey Sanchez	22.6	0.100	19.0	0.084	-0.01608

Looks like the Orioles have great defense at 2nd base in Brian Roberts, and Mark Ellis appears to be making up for some of the defensive shortcomings of Scott Hatteberg.

I'm not surprised to see Roberto Alomar near the bottom. For years, zone ratings at STATS showed him very low, despite the how good he looked in the field. It also looks like Bret Boone's gold glove wasn't really deserved.

Here's the chart for shortstops in 2003 (minimum 200 balls in play):

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Denny Hocking	36.6	0.095	49.0	0.128	0.03232
Mark DeRosa	39.3	0.124	49.0	0.154	0.03048
Neifi Perez	133.4	0.141	146.0	0.154	0.01332
Craig Counsell	66.0	0.133	72.0	0.145	0.01220
Jorge Velandia	71.8	0.128	76.0	0.136	0.00757
Juan Uribe	265.0	0.134	279.0	0.141	0.00705
Julio Lugo	447.0	0.120	472.0	0.126	0.00671
Adam Everett	399.1	0.137	416.0	0.143	0.00580
Lou Merloni	55.5	0.129	58.0	0.135	0.00577
Angel Berroa	523.7	0.117	548.0	0.122	0.00540
Orlando Cabrera	497.4	0.117	517.0	0.121	0.00458
Omar Infante	222.5	0.130	230.0	0.134	0.00436
Omar Vizquel	229.7	0.130	237.0	0.135	0.00412
Jose Valentin	425.5	0.119	440.0	0.123	0.00407
Willie Bloomquist	46.5	0.115	48.0	0.119	0.00375
Chris Woodward	320.7	0.116	331.0	0.120	0.00373
Mike Bordick	201.9	0.113	208.0	0.117	0.00342
Ray Olmedo	138.4	0.113	142.0	0.116	0.00295
Rafael Furcal	500.6	0.120	511.0	0.122	0.00250
Carlos Guillen	199.6	0.108	204.0	0.111	0.00241
David Eckstein	352.0	0.115	359.0	0.117	0.00229
Rey Sanchez	266.0	0.119	271.0	0.121	0.00223
Enrique Wilson	59.3	0.112	60.0	0.114	0.00123
Alex Gonzalez	475.2	0.121	480.0	0.122	0.00122
Royce Clayton	446.3	0.116	450.0	0.117	0.00095
Alex S. Gonzalez	444.8	0.131	448.0	0.132	0.00094
Khalil Greene	53.6	0.115	54.0	0.116	0.00092
Jimmy Rollins	507.4	0.123	511.0	0.124	0.00087
Joe McEwing	112.3	0.139	113.0	0.140	0.00086
Barry Larkin	182.8	0.122	184.0	0.123	0.00083
Nomar Garciaparra	488.1	0.116	491.0	0.117	0.00070
Ramon Martinez	60.8	0.129	61.0	0.130	0.00044
Shane Halter	70.2	0.126	70.0	0.126	-0.00029
Melvin Mora	34.1	0.114	34.0	0.114	-0.00038
Wilson Delgado	43.2	0.119	43.0	0.118	-0.00050
Edgar Renteria	495.8	0.115	493.0	0.115	-0.00064
Cesar Izturis	511.9	0.136	509.0	0.135	-0.00077
Alex Rodriguez	484.0	0.111	480.0	0.111	-0.00092
Cristian Guzman	430.9	0.111	425.0	0.110	-0.00153
Alex Cintron	261.5	0.116	258.0	0.114	-0.00156
Jack Wilson	502.5	0.121	496.0	0.119	-0.00157
Tony Graffanino	89.5	0.126	88.0	0.124	-0.00208
Felipe Lopez	155.7	0.121	153.0	0.119	-0.00213
Rey Ordonez	103.3	0.105	101.0	0.102	-0.00235
Jose Reyes	258.1	0.137	253.0	0.134	-0.00268
Miguel Tejada	564.7	0.131	550.0	0.128	-0.00342
Benji Gil	38.3	0.105	37.0	0.101	-0.00348
Deivi Cruz	457.1	0.114	442.0	0.110	-0.00375
Derek Jeter	352.5	0.109	340.0	0.105	-0.00386
Ramon Santiago	283.3	0.115	272.0	0.110	-0.00459
Juan Castro	52.5	0.104	50.0	0.099	-0.00488
Rich Aurilia	366.8	0.114	351.0	0.109	-0.00490
Mark McLemore	101.6	0.110	97.0	0.105	-0.00501
Ramon Vazquez	320.0	0.117	306.0	0.112	-0.00512
Enrique Cruz	25.2	0.123	24.0	0.117	-0.00576
John McDonald	63.6	0.102	60.0	0.096	-0.00580
Felix Escalona	23.2	0.113	22.0	0.107	-0.00584
Tony Womack	186.8	0.112	177.0	0.106	-0.00587
Alfredo Amezaga	67.1	0.113	63.0	0.106	-0.00682
Jhonny Peralta	262.5	0.138	249.0	0.131	-0.00709
Jose Hernandez	231.5	0.119	215.0	0.110	-0.00847
Jose Vizcaino	52.5	0.113	48.0	0.103	-0.00972
Donaldo Mendez	84.1	0.121	77.0	0.111	-0.01027
Ricky Gutierrez	28.5	0.117	26.0	0.107	-0.01041
Clint Barmes	34.8	0.133	32.0	0.123	-0.01076
Jose Morban	14.4	0.068	12.0	0.057	-0.01117
Abraham O. Nunez	52.4	0.113	47.0	0.101	-0.01159
Erick Almonte	91.0	0.120	80.0	0.106	-0.01456
Bill Hall	60.2	0.123	53.0	0.108	-0.01461
Chris Gomez	34.7	0.102	28.0	0.082	-0.01983
Damian Jackson	29.5	0.120	24.0	0.098	-0.02252
Mike Mordecai	32.1	0.114	25.0	0.089	-0.02510

Looking at this, why would Tampa Bay ever go back to Rey Ordonez at SS. Not only is Lugo a good fielder, he can hit better.

I'm somewhat surprised that Jeter isn't the worst regular shortstop in the majors, and Tejada isn't much better. Aurilia is rated lower than both of them, yet win shares (according to STATS, Inc.) gives Jeter 1.3 defensive win shares, Aurilia 5.6. In looking at the win shares system for SS, James has four categories he weights 40-30-20-10. In order, they are assists, double plays, errors and putouts. None of these is a pure measure of range, yet all contribute to it. And they are all adjusted by an expectation based on league averages. I'm hoping these two system can be combined to improve the calculation of defensive win shares.

I wanted to look at individual third basemen next. One reader wondered about Eric Chavez; he had been rated very high by other systems over the last few years, but the Oakland third basemen in total did not do well under this probabilistic system. Chavez comes out about average under this method, but Frank Menechino does most of the damage at the position (based on 200 balls in play when on the field):

Third Baseman	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Alfredo Amezaga	23.9	0.087	31.0	0.112	0.02569
Donnie Sadler	36.5	0.079	43.0	0.093	0.01407
Carlos Guillen	69.2	0.080	80.0	0.093	0.01253
Pedro Feliz	90.1	0.102	100.0	0.113	0.01119
Mike Bordick	43.4	0.085	49.0	0.096	0.01105
Denny Hocking	44.6	0.097	49.0	0.106	0.00942
Shane Halter	116.2	0.092	128.0	0.102	0.00941
Damian Rolls	179.3	0.095	195.0	0.104	0.00838
David Bell	205.3	0.097	223.0	0.105	0.00835
Chris Truby	35.9	0.096	39.0	0.104	0.00817
Mark Bellhorn	103.6	0.087	113.0	0.095	0.00795
Howie Clark	19.0	0.069	21.0	0.076	0.00726
Morgan Ensberg	216.4	0.091	233.0	0.097	0.00697
Lou Merloni	60.9	0.095	65.0	0.101	0.00630
Casey Blake	334.8	0.090	358.0	0.096	0.00626
Juan Castro	51.0	0.089	54.0	0.094	0.00519
Willie Bloomquist	60.3	0.080	64.0	0.085	0.00493
Russell Branyan	55.7	0.116	58.0	0.121	0.00489
Desi Relaford	67.6	0.095	71.0	0.099	0.00474
Matt Kata	47.8	0.098	50.0	0.102	0.00461
Greg Norton	67.8	0.093	71.0	0.097	0.00438
Robby Hammock	50.6	0.158	52.0	0.162	0.00428
Geoff Blum	151.2	0.084	158.0	0.088	0.00379
Jose Hernandez	181.6	0.104	188.0	0.107	0.00367
Craig Counsell	126.2	0.104	130.0	0.108	0.00318
Jeff Cirillo	161.1	0.080	167.0	0.083	0.00291
Vinny Castilla	367.7	0.093	379.0	0.096	0.00287
Jared Sandberg	98.1	0.089	101.0	0.091	0.00264
Jamey Carroll	144.6	0.110	148.0	0.112	0.00258
Matt Williams	84.5	0.091	86.0	0.093	0.00162
Jose Leon	23.6	0.095	24.0	0.097	0.00161
Adrian Beltre	385.7	0.103	391.0	0.105	0.00143
Edgardo Alfonzo	279.2	0.080	284.0	0.082	0.00139
Chris Stynes	284.7	0.092	289.0	0.093	0.00138
Scott Rolen	379.4	0.090	385.0	0.091	0.00131
Mike Lowell	307.4	0.092	311.0	0.093	0.00109
Alex Cintron	30.6	0.087	31.0	0.089	0.00108
Robin Ventura	183.3	0.089	185.0	0.090	0.00083
Shawn Wooten	34.7	0.081	35.0	0.082	0.00074
Hank Blalock	317.9	0.086	320.0	0.087	0.00057
Miguel Cabrera	65.7	0.083	66.0	0.084	0.00034
Fernando Tatis	113.0	0.091	113.0	0.091	-0.00001
Eric Chavez	445.3	0.110	445.0	0.110	-0.00008
Joe Crede	354.4	0.091	354.0	0.091	-0.00010
Brandon Larson	62.1	0.099	62.0	0.099	-0.00011
Aaron Boone	360.9	0.096	360.0	0.096	-0.00023
Tony Batista	355.1	0.082	354.0	0.082	-0.00026
Sean Burroughs	319.4	0.094	318.0	0.093	-0.00040
Jay Bell	20.1	0.089	20.0	0.088	-0.00048
Tony Graffanino	20.3	0.060	20.0	0.059	-0.00075
Todd Zeile	144.7	0.094	143.0	0.093	-0.00110
Wes Helms	319.5	0.090	315.0	0.089	-0.00126
Joe Randa	315.6	0.090	311.0	0.089	-0.00131
Aramis Ramirez	418.3	0.099	411.0	0.097	-0.00172
Troy Glaus	180.3	0.079	176.0	0.077	-0.00188
Bill Mueller	304.2	0.089	297.0	0.087	-0.00210
Jose Macias	42.3	0.089	41.0	0.087	-0.00281
Corey Koskie	327.5	0.092	317.0	0.089	-0.00296
Keith Ginter	69.1	0.070	66.0	0.067	-0.00313
Enrique Wilson	30.1	0.104	29.0	0.100	-0.00388
Rob Mackowiak	34.6	0.086	33.0	0.083	-0.00393
Edwards Guzman	42.2	0.075	40.0	0.071	-0.00401
Tomas Perez	122.2	0.101	117.0	0.096	-0.00426
Eric Hinske	293.4	0.087	278.0	0.082	-0.00456
Ramon Martinez	57.8	0.096	55.0	0.092	-0.00463
Dave Berg	30.8	0.079	29.0	0.074	-0.00466
Ty Wigginton	399.9	0.094	380.0	0.090	-0.00468
Placido Polanco	48.6	0.090	46.0	0.085	-0.00481
Dave Hansen	22.3	0.088	21.0	0.083	-0.00509
Mark DeRosa	56.3	0.107	53.0	0.101	-0.00631
Mark McLemore	66.3	0.098	62.0	0.092	-0.00633
Danny Klassen	35.4	0.094	33.0	0.088	-0.00638
Lenny Harris	57.5	0.089	53.0	0.082	-0.00699
Tim Hummel	45.0	0.087	41.0	0.079	-0.00778
Shea Hillenbrand	135.2	0.089	123.0	0.081	-0.00804
Julius Matos	14.2	0.061	12.0	0.051	-0.00948
Chris Gomez	44.2	0.099	40.0	0.090	-0.00949
Eric Munson	231.4	0.090	206.0	0.080	-0.00986
Frank Menechino	27.3	0.090	24.0	0.079	-0.01082
Garrett Atkins	37.4	0.078	32.0	0.067	-0.01129
Mark Teixeira	30.6	0.097	27.0	0.086	-0.01140
Wilson Delgado	21.6	0.076	18.0	0.064	-0.01261
Aubrey Huff	17.1	0.070	14.0	0.058	-0.01262
Scott Spiezio	99.7	0.081	84.0	0.068	-0.01274
Damion Easley	51.2	0.083	43.0	0.069	-0.01317
Tyler Houston	44.5	0.107	39.0	0.094	-0.01330
John McDonald	28.3	0.076	23.0	0.062	-0.01424
Dmitri Young	49.8	0.113	43.0	0.097	-0.01536

Looks like Casey Blake has the best range of the regular third baseman. I haven't seen him play much. Is anyone surprised by that?

Part three of Michael Humphreys defensive regression analysis is up on Baseball Primer.

It's time to start looking at the range of individual players. I'm starting with first basemen, since people have noticed the wide disparity between the A's and Devil Rays. This table contains data for all first basemen who were on the field for at least 50 balls in play.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Bobby Kielty	4.5	0.087	6.0	0.115	0.02793
Denny Hocking	11.4	0.087	15.0	0.114	0.02711
Benji Gil	3.5	0.053	5.0	0.075	0.02185
Dave Hansen	24.7	0.084	31.0	0.105	0.02140
Mike Hessman	2.2	0.026	4.0	0.047	0.02054
John Mabry	13.5	0.080	16.0	0.095	0.01481
Ron Coomer	21.6	0.066	26.0	0.079	0.01345
Russell Branyan	20.4	0.067	24.0	0.079	0.01178
Brian Banks	10.0	0.051	12.0	0.062	0.01048
Mike Kinkade	14.0	0.071	16.0	0.081	0.00997
Justin Morneau	8.9	0.075	10.0	0.084	0.00936
Travis Lee	315.8	0.081	346.0	0.088	0.00771
Robin Ventura	41.2	0.062	46.0	0.069	0.00715
Kevin Young	32.6	0.050	37.0	0.057	0.00671
Tom Wilson	9.0	0.060	10.0	0.067	0.00664
Morgan Burkhart	1.7	0.032	2.0	0.038	0.00613
J.T. Snow	174.0	0.071	188.0	0.077	0.00569
Dave McCarty	15.4	0.127	16.0	0.132	0.00493
Doug Mientkiewicz	261.3	0.072	278.0	0.077	0.00463
Julio Franco	73.3	0.058	79.0	0.063	0.00451
Mark Teixeira	211.7	0.072	223.0	0.076	0.00384
Kevin Millar	201.0	0.078	210.0	0.081	0.00349
Derrek Lee	279.7	0.069	293.0	0.072	0.00327
David Segui	16.4	0.082	17.0	0.085	0.00297
Craig Paquette	5.7	0.054	6.0	0.057	0.00285
Lyle Overbay	156.8	0.088	161.0	0.091	0.00235
Brian Buchanan	21.0	0.045	22.0	0.048	0.00223
John Olerud	297.4	0.077	306.0	0.079	0.00222
Todd Zeile	44.9	0.083	46.0	0.086	0.00205
Jeff Conine	246.1	0.076	252.0	0.077	0.00182
Edwards Guzman	10.6	0.046	11.0	0.048	0.00182
Casey Blake	39.3	0.088	40.0	0.090	0.00160
Carlos Baerga	27.5	0.080	28.0	0.081	0.00139
Phil Nevin	65.2	0.084	66.0	0.085	0.00105
Adam Dunn	21.8	0.075	22.0	0.076	0.00086
Paul Konerko	217.1	0.077	219.0	0.077	0.00066
Mark Grace	62.5	0.083	63.0	0.084	0.00062
David Ortiz	88.3	0.074	89.0	0.075	0.00061
Sean Casey	260.8	0.065	263.0	0.065	0.00054
Todd Helton	365.2	0.081	367.0	0.082	0.00041
Tino Martinez	243.6	0.073	245.0	0.073	0.00040
Albert Pujols	84.5	0.071	85.0	0.072	0.00038
Tony Clark	86.4	0.053	87.0	0.054	0.00036
Daryle Ward	22.9	0.082	23.0	0.083	0.00024
Brian Daubach	53.9	0.064	54.0	0.064	0.00016
Joe Vitiello	20.0	0.082	20.0	0.082	-0.00003
Greg Colbrunn	23.0	0.081	23.0	0.080	-0.00014
Jason Phillips	131.7	0.061	131.0	0.061	-0.00030
Mendy Lopez	14.1	0.071	14.0	0.071	-0.00037
Ryan Klesko	186.5	0.068	185.0	0.067	-0.00055
Richie Sexson	348.6	0.076	346.0	0.076	-0.00057
Aubrey Huff	37.4	0.063	37.0	0.062	-0.00064
Scott Spiezio	173.6	0.071	172.0	0.070	-0.00066
Carlos Delgado	316.0	0.078	313.0	0.077	-0.00073
Robert Fick	169.5	0.059	167.0	0.059	-0.00086
Ken Harvey	205.5	0.079	203.0	0.078	-0.00098
Erubiel Durazo	58.1	0.069	57.0	0.068	-0.00131
Orlando Merced	10.2	0.068	10.0	0.067	-0.00136
Randall Simon	178.6	0.071	175.0	0.069	-0.00143
Travis Hafner	66.5	0.063	65.0	0.061	-0.00144
Jason Giambi	153.3	0.068	150.0	0.066	-0.00144
Jeff Bagwell	280.8	0.069	275.0	0.068	-0.00144
Ben Broussard	203.3	0.071	199.0	0.069	-0.00150
Jim Thome	288.2	0.070	282.0	0.068	-0.00151
Rafael Palmeiro	106.3	0.073	104.0	0.071	-0.00156
Hee Seop Choi	112.3	0.082	110.0	0.081	-0.00165
Matthew LeCroy	19.6	0.062	19.0	0.060	-0.00179
Andres Galarraga	102.9	0.065	100.0	0.063	-0.00184
Tomas Perez	10.2	0.091	10.0	0.089	-0.00190
Carlos Rivera	42.4	0.064	41.0	0.062	-0.00215
Matt Stairs	38.5	0.057	37.0	0.055	-0.00219
Eric Karros	132.5	0.065	128.0	0.063	-0.00222
Wil Cordero	209.0	0.067	202.0	0.065	-0.00224
Robb Quinlan	38.3	0.068	37.0	0.066	-0.00227
B.J. Surhoff	33.3	0.061	32.0	0.059	-0.00232
Raul Ibanez	41.4	0.069	40.0	0.066	-0.00234
Carlos Pena	236.8	0.065	228.0	0.062	-0.00240
Brad Wilkerson	31.0	0.076	30.0	0.074	-0.00247
Shawn Wooten	44.9	0.067	43.0	0.064	-0.00275
Jeff Liefer	29.2	0.068	28.0	0.065	-0.00276
Nick Johnson	120.6	0.072	116.0	0.069	-0.00277
Larry Barnes	10.4	0.077	10.0	0.074	-0.00298
Mike Sweeney	89.7	0.074	86.0	0.071	-0.00303
Todd Sears	24.0	0.071	23.0	0.068	-0.00309
Shane Halter	17.9	0.066	17.0	0.062	-0.00345
Brad Fullmer	33.7	0.075	32.0	0.071	-0.00382
Shea Hillenbrand	136.1	0.075	129.0	0.071	-0.00389
Matt Franco	18.2	0.058	17.0	0.054	-0.00395
Shane Spencer	9.8	0.051	9.0	0.047	-0.00403
Craig Wilson	44.2	0.063	41.0	0.058	-0.00454
Adam Riggs	18.2	0.077	17.0	0.072	-0.00494
Mo Vaughn	33.8	0.060	31.0	0.055	-0.00497
Carlos Mendez	9.6	0.088	9.0	0.083	-0.00509
Kevin Witt	52.8	0.073	49.0	0.067	-0.00523
Todd Pratt	9.7	0.078	9.0	0.072	-0.00553
Herbert Perry	4.5	0.054	4.0	0.048	-0.00574
Scott Hatteberg	231.7	0.068	211.0	0.062	-0.00612
Fred McGriff	112.3	0.061	101.0	0.055	-0.00613
Andy Abad	11.7	0.103	11.0	0.096	-0.00617
Jose Leon	7.1	0.047	6.0	0.040	-0.00708
Paul Lo Duca	32.4	0.068	29.0	0.061	-0.00720
Jay Bell	5.0	0.047	4.0	0.038	-0.00945
Pedro Feliz	20.7	0.076	18.0	0.066	-0.00989
Jay Gibbons	18.2	0.059	15.0	0.049	-0.01037
Frank Thomas	40.6	0.068	34.0	0.057	-0.01108
Frank Catalanotto	8.9	0.119	8.0	0.107	-0.01190
Jolbert Cabrera	8.1	0.088	7.0	0.075	-0.01224
Graham Koonce	4.7	0.082	4.0	0.069	-0.01255
Michael Cuddyer	6.9	0.075	5.0	0.055	-0.02052
Josh Phelps	13.0	0.068	9.0	0.047	-0.02088

As you can see, Travis Lee is very good, and Scott Hatteberg isn't. Let's see if we can find where the difference is. Let's break the two of them down by batted ball type.

Scott Hatteberg

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
B	10.2	0.108	9.0	0.096	-0.01241
G	147.7	0.091	136.0	0.084	-0.00723
L	10.5	0.018	6.0	0.010	-0.00780
P	63.4	0.179	60.0	0.169	-0.00956

Travis Lee

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
B	9.0	0.148	12.0	0.197	0.04918
G	205.4	0.125	213.0	0.129	0.00461
L	16.4	0.022	18.0	0.024	0.00213
P	85.0	0.207	103.0	0.251	0.04387

As you can see, Hatteberg is poor at on every batted ball type. Travis Lee is particularly good at catching pop ups. Let's look at the two of them by direction. Direction X represents the first base line, C represents the third base line, M is up the middle.

Scott Hatteberg

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
M	0.7	0.004	1.0	0.006	0.00185
Q	1.4	0.011	2.0	0.016	0.00519
S	2.0	0.017	2.0	0.017	-0.00000
T	1.2	0.009	1.0	0.008	-0.00172
U	14.1	0.100	6.0	0.043	-0.05738
V	42.4	0.289	36.0	0.245	-0.04385
W	67.6	0.501	59.0	0.437	-0.06400
X	61.2	0.557	65.0	0.591	0.03416
Y	24.3	0.695	24.0	0.686	-0.00944
Z	16.3	0.711	15.0	0.652	-0.05870

Travis Lee

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
D	1.0	0.004	1.0	0.004	-0.00000
M	0.5	0.002	1.0	0.004	0.00212
N	1.4	0.007	3.0	0.015	0.00769
O	0.6	0.004	2.0	0.013	0.00921
R	0.8	0.005	1.0	0.006	0.00131
S	2.2	0.014	3.0	0.018	0.00464
T	3.7	0.019	3.0	0.015	-0.00347
U	13.9	0.113	16.0	0.130	0.01713
V	48.9	0.379	57.0	0.442	0.06298
W	103.2	0.596	108.0	0.624	0.02795
X	88.5	0.575	96.0	0.623	0.04844
Y	29.6	0.672	32.0	0.727	0.05534
Z	21.3	0.711	23.0	0.767	0.05557

As you can see, unless you hit the ball right at Hatteberg, he has trouble fielding it. Meanwhile Lee gets to balls all over the infield. More to come.

I was just thinking about the range model, and it strikes me that the base-out situation may be much more important than the handedness of pitchers or batters. I'll have to check that out.

I'm received a number of comments on the probabilistic model of range indicating that people think this system will help answer the question, "How much do pitchers contribute to the hits allowed against them?" One way of looking at this is to look at expected DER. If the expected DER is high, then the pitchers are inducing balls in play that are easy to field. If low, the opposite is true. Here's the team chart sorted on expected DER:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Athletics	3122.8	0.714	3112.0	0.712	-0.00247
Mariners	3082.7	0.712	3120.0	0.720	0.00861
Dodgers	2847.6	0.708	2828.0	0.703	-0.00487
Giants	3068.8	0.704	3091.0	0.709	0.00509
Phillies	3079.9	0.703	3073.0	0.701	-0.00158
White Sox	3006.7	0.703	3018.0	0.705	0.00263
Cardinals	3245.3	0.702	3229.0	0.698	-0.00353
Devil Rays	3179.2	0.701	3204.0	0.707	0.00547
Angels	3093.0	0.698	3108.0	0.702	0.00340
Astros	2955.6	0.698	2981.0	0.704	0.00600
Mets	3140.2	0.697	3099.0	0.688	-0.00915
Padres	3016.6	0.696	3009.0	0.695	-0.00174
Diamondbacks	2907.1	0.694	2888.0	0.689	-0.00455
Twins	3200.2	0.694	3226.0	0.699	0.00560
Marlins	3000.8	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00041
Tigers	3324.2	0.692	3283.0	0.683	-0.00857
Pirates	3196.9	0.691	3196.0	0.691	-0.00019
Expos	3057.3	0.691	3066.0	0.693	0.00197
Indians	3155.4	0.690	3190.0	0.698	0.00756
Cubs	2753.7	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00133
Royals	3225.4	0.689	3231.0	0.690	0.00119
Braves	3108.9	0.688	3150.0	0.697	0.00909
Orioles	3154.1	0.688	3132.0	0.683	-0.00482
Yankees	3110.6	0.688	3074.0	0.679	-0.00809
Reds	3193.5	0.688	3195.0	0.688	0.00032
Red Sox	3084.2	0.685	3076.0	0.684	-0.00183
Rockies	3190.6	0.684	3163.0	0.678	-0.00593
Brewers	3125.5	0.684	3123.0	0.683	-0.00054
Blue Jays	3092.0	0.678	3106.0	0.681	0.00306
Rangers	3070.3	0.678	3060.0	0.675	-0.00227

As you can see, the pitchers who gave their defense the easiest balls to field belonged to the staff of the Oakland A's. And the Rangers ranking at the bottom show just how bad that pitching staff was. The next step will be to apply this to individual pitchers.

Update: Here's a table of all pitchers with at least 100 balls put in play against them (fieldable balls only). Find your favorite pitcher and see how he did. Notice Gagne was higher than Schmidt, and Schmidt was much higher than Prior.

Update: Looks like I can't put the whole pitcher's table in the entry, so I'm redoing it with all pitchers who have had 200 balls put into play against them. There will be another update when that's done.

Update: Okay, the final table is in place below.

Tango Tiger is keeping a link to all my posts on probabilistic range at Baseball Primer. There's a discussion there as well.

Like Bill James did with defensive win shares, I'm working top down. I started with overall team range, looking at DER compared to predicted DER. Now, I'm breaking each team down by position, so you'll be able to see where each organization has a weakness in range. There are 30 charts below, one for each team:

Part II of Michael Humphreys' DRA article is up on Baseball Primer. I have just scanned it at this point, but it looks very interesting, and there are lots of good comments. I'll be commenting more when I've read the post thoroughly.

I'm not the only one working on new defensive analysis. Michael Humphreys is publishing on Baseball Primer his Defensive Regression Analysis system. It looks very promising.

The final calculation of range is in. What team exceeded expectations more than any other? The Braves:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Braves	3108.9	0.688	3150.0	0.697	0.00909
Mariners	3082.7	0.712	3120.0	0.720	0.00861
Indians	3155.4	0.690	3190.0	0.698	0.00756
Astros	2955.6	0.698	2981.0	0.704	0.00600
Twins	3200.2	0.694	3226.0	0.699	0.00560
Devil Rays	3179.2	0.701	3204.0	0.707	0.00547
Giants	3068.8	0.704	3091.0	0.709	0.00509
Angels	3093.0	0.698	3108.0	0.702	0.00340
Blue Jays	3092.0	0.678	3106.0	0.681	0.00306
White Sox	3006.7	0.703	3018.0	0.705	0.00263
Expos	3057.3	0.691	3066.0	0.693	0.00197
Cubs	2753.7	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00133
Royals	3225.4	0.689	3231.0	0.690	0.00119
Reds	3193.5	0.688	3195.0	0.688	0.00032
Pirates	3196.9	0.691	3196.0	0.691	-0.00019
Marlins	3000.8	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00041
Brewers	3125.5	0.684	3123.0	0.683	-0.00054
Phillies	3079.9	0.703	3073.0	0.701	-0.00158
Padres	3016.6	0.696	3009.0	0.695	-0.00174
Red Sox	3084.2	0.685	3076.0	0.684	-0.00183
Rangers	3070.3	0.678	3060.0	0.675	-0.00227
Athletics	3122.8	0.714	3112.0	0.712	-0.00247
Cardinals	3245.3	0.702	3229.0	0.698	-0.00353
Diamondbacks	2907.1	0.694	2888.0	0.689	-0.00455
Orioles	3154.1	0.688	3132.0	0.683	-0.00482
Dodgers	2847.6	0.708	2828.0	0.703	-0.00487
Rockies	3190.6	0.684	3163.0	0.678	-0.00593
Yankees	3110.6	0.688	3074.0	0.679	-0.00809
Tigers	3324.2	0.692	3283.0	0.683	-0.00857
Mets	3140.2	0.697	3099.0	0.688	-0.00915

And although it seemed like the Rangers were the worst defensive team in terms of actual DER, the Mets acutally fell short of expectations by the most.

Now that I'm fairly confident of the model, time to start looking at team positions to see where the weak spots are showing.

The following table is presented to summarize the previous posts using different parameters to calculate range (batted ball, with stadium, with pitcher, with batter, both batter and pitcher). It compares the difference between actual DER and expected DER:

Team	Batted Ball Parameters	Batted Ball with Stadium	Batted Ball with Pitcher's Hand	Batted Ball with Batter's Side	With both Pitcher's Hand and Batter's Side
Angels	0.00877	0.00360	0.00824	0.00778	0.00727
Astros	0.00480	0.00514	0.00438	0.00485	0.00442
Athletics	-0.00302	-0.00250	-0.00141	-0.00312	-0.00160
Blue Jays	-0.00629	0.00032	-0.00638	-0.00535	-0.00544
Braves	0.00717	0.00881	0.00705	0.00681	0.00694
Brewers	0.00404	-0.00519	0.00351	0.00170	0.00193
Cardinals	0.01240	0.00163	0.01219	0.01108	0.01062
Cubs	0.00136	0.00234	0.00043	0.00125	0.00014
Devil Rays	-0.00213	0.00665	-0.00219	-0.00182	-0.00222
Diamondbacks	-0.01476	-0.00343	-0.01483	-0.01394	-0.01437
Dodgers	0.00753	-0.00470	0.00823	0.00665	0.00717
Expos	0.00684	0.00100	0.00651	0.00721	0.00693
Giants	-0.00335	0.00599	-0.00303	-0.00276	-0.00253
Indians	-0.00121	0.00247	-0.00023	-0.00192	-0.00042
Mariners	0.01574	0.01135	0.01575	0.01771	0.01778
Marlins	0.00124	-0.00045	0.00067	-0.00029	-0.00101
Mets	-0.00604	-0.00855	-0.00654	-0.00703	-0.00785
Orioles	-0.00086	-0.00465	-0.00057	0.00001	0.00033
Padres	0.00788	-0.00323	0.00778	0.00817	0.00766
Phillies	0.01350	-0.00022	0.01332	0.01337	0.01303
Pirates	-0.01363	-0.00163	-0.01335	-0.01280	-0.01251
Rangers	-0.01275	-0.00152	-0.01280	-0.01216	-0.01269
Red Sox	-0.01678	-0.00129	-0.01720	-0.01585	-0.01620
Reds	0.00610	-0.00192	0.00607	0.00603	0.00621
Rockies	0.00008	-0.00284	-0.00048	0.00129	0.00091
Royals	0.00205	0.00027	0.00239	0.00252	0.00280
Tigers	-0.00575	-0.01006	-0.00561	-0.00608	-0.00582
Twins	-0.00375	0.01121	-0.00352	-0.00428	-0.00382
White Sox	0.00929	0.00259	0.00948	0.00911	0.00936
Yankees	-0.01599	-0.01013	-0.01545	-0.01564	-0.01469

While this table shows that parks in general have a much bigger effect than handedness, batting or pitching side really matters for certain teams. So in my final model, I'm going to build in everything. So we're going to look at the probability of an out given the batted ball type, direction and speed, the stadium, the handedness of the pitcher and the handedness of the batter.

The previous post looked at the effect of the pitcher's handedness on the probablistic range calculation. We now look at how the handedness of the batter effects that calculation.

The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the handedness of the batter. I basically substituted batting side for throwing hand in this calculation. The results:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3043.3	0.703	3120.0	0.720	0.01771
Phillies	3014.4	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01337
Cardinals	3177.7	0.687	3229.0	0.698	0.01108
White Sox	2979.0	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00911
Padres	2973.6	0.686	3009.0	0.695	0.00817
Angels	3073.6	0.694	3108.0	0.702	0.00778
Expos	3034.1	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00721
Braves	3119.2	0.691	3150.0	0.697	0.00681
Dodgers	2801.2	0.696	2828.0	0.703	0.00665
Reds	3167.0	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00603
Astros	2960.4	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00485
Royals	3219.2	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00252
Brewers	3115.2	0.682	3123.0	0.683	0.00170
Rockies	3157.0	0.677	3163.0	0.678	0.00129
Cubs	2754.0	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00125
Orioles	3132.0	0.683	3132.0	0.683	0.00001
Marlins	3000.3	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00029
Devil Rays	3212.3	0.708	3204.0	0.707	-0.00182
Indians	3198.8	0.700	3190.0	0.698	-0.00192
Giants	3103.0	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00276
Athletics	3125.6	0.715	3112.0	0.712	-0.00312
Twins	3245.7	0.704	3226.0	0.699	-0.00428
Blue Jays	3130.4	0.686	3106.0	0.681	-0.00535
Tigers	3312.2	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00608
Mets	3130.7	0.695	3099.0	0.688	-0.00703
Rangers	3115.1	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01216
Pirates	3255.2	0.704	3196.0	0.691	-0.01280
Diamondbacks	2946.4	0.703	2888.0	0.689	-0.01394
Yankees	3144.7	0.695	3074.0	0.679	-0.01564
Red Sox	3147.3	0.699	3076.0	0.684	-0.01585

Again, like throwning hand, batting side doesn't make a big difference in order of team compared to just using the batted ball parameters. It also seems that the boost the Dodgers and Athletics got from looking at the handedness of the pitchers is balanced by the decline when you look at the handedness of the opposing batters. To check this, I ran the calculation using both pitcher and batter handedness:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3043.0	0.703	3120.0	0.720	0.01778
Phillies	3015.9	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01303
Cardinals	3179.9	0.688	3229.0	0.698	0.01062
White Sox	2977.9	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00936
Padres	2975.8	0.687	3009.0	0.695	0.00766
Angels	3075.8	0.694	3108.0	0.702	0.00727
Dodgers	2799.2	0.696	2828.0	0.703	0.00717
Braves	3118.6	0.690	3150.0	0.697	0.00694
Expos	3035.3	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00693
Reds	3166.2	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00621
Astros	2962.3	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00442
Royals	3217.9	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00280
Brewers	3114.2	0.681	3123.0	0.683	0.00193
Rockies	3158.7	0.677	3163.0	0.678	0.00091
Orioles	3130.5	0.683	3132.0	0.683	0.00033
Cubs	2758.4	0.690	2759.0	0.691	0.00014
Indians	3191.9	0.698	3190.0	0.698	-0.00042
Marlins	3003.4	0.693	2999.0	0.692	-0.00101
Athletics	3119.0	0.713	3112.0	0.712	-0.00160
Devil Rays	3214.1	0.709	3204.0	0.707	-0.00222
Giants	3102.0	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00253
Twins	3243.6	0.703	3226.0	0.699	-0.00382
Blue Jays	3130.8	0.687	3106.0	0.681	-0.00544
Tigers	3311.0	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00582
Mets	3134.4	0.695	3099.0	0.688	-0.00785
Pirates	3253.9	0.704	3196.0	0.691	-0.01251
Rangers	3117.5	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01269
Diamondbacks	2948.2	0.704	2888.0	0.689	-0.01437
Yankees	3140.4	0.694	3074.0	0.679	-0.01469
Red Sox	3148.9	0.700	3076.0	0.684	-0.01620

So they don't cancel each other out. I'll summarize the results so far in my next post.

Recently, I looked at the effects of ball parks on range. I was next going to see what ballparks were most different from normal, but I have quite figured out the correct way to do that yet. Instead, I'm looking at handedness today. We'l start out with the handedness of the pitchers.

The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the throwing hand of the pitcher. I basically substituted throwing hand for ballpark in this calculation. The results:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3051.8	0.705	3120.0	0.720	0.01575
Phillies	3014.6	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01332
Cardinals	3172.6	0.686	3229.0	0.698	0.01219
White Sox	2977.4	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00948
Angels	3071.5	0.693	3108.0	0.702	0.00824
Dodgers	2794.9	0.695	2828.0	0.703	0.00823
Padres	2975.3	0.687	3009.0	0.695	0.00778
Braves	3118.2	0.690	3150.0	0.697	0.00705
Expos	3037.2	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00651
Reds	3166.8	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00607
Astros	2962.4	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00438
Brewers	3107.0	0.680	3123.0	0.683	0.00351
Royals	3219.8	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00239
Marlins	2996.1	0.691	2999.0	0.692	0.00067
Cubs	2757.3	0.690	2759.0	0.691	0.00043
Indians	3191.1	0.698	3190.0	0.698	-0.00023
Rockies	3165.3	0.679	3163.0	0.678	-0.00048
Orioles	3134.6	0.684	3132.0	0.683	-0.00057
Athletics	3118.2	0.713	3112.0	0.712	-0.00141
Devil Rays	3213.9	0.709	3204.0	0.707	-0.00219
Giants	3104.2	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00303
Twins	3242.3	0.703	3226.0	0.699	-0.00352
Tigers	3309.9	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00561
Blue Jays	3135.1	0.688	3106.0	0.681	-0.00638
Mets	3128.5	0.694	3099.0	0.688	-0.00654
Rangers	3118.0	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01280
Pirates	3257.8	0.704	3196.0	0.691	-0.01335
Diamondbacks	2950.1	0.704	2888.0	0.689	-0.01483
Yankees	3143.9	0.695	3074.0	0.679	-0.01545
Red Sox	3153.4	0.701	3076.0	0.684	-0.01720

If you compare the above table to my original calculation (based on the three batted ball features), you see very little difference in the ordering of the teams. Unlike park effects, the handedness of the pitchers have very little to do with the team's DER. Two teams it seems to help are the Dodgers and Athletics, although at the moment I have no speculation why.

The next step I'm taking in my probabilistic model of range is to add in the park as a parameter. Here's the new table of predicted and actual defensive efficiency records:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3070.9	0.709	3120.0	0.720	0.01135
Twins	3174.3	0.688	3226.0	0.699	0.01121
Braves	3110.2	0.689	3150.0	0.697	0.00881
Devil Rays	3173.8	0.700	3204.0	0.707	0.00665
Giants	3064.9	0.703	3091.0	0.709	0.00599
Astros	2959.2	0.698	2981.0	0.704	0.00514
Angels	3092.1	0.698	3108.0	0.702	0.00360
White Sox	3006.9	0.703	3018.0	0.705	0.00259
Indians	3178.7	0.696	3190.0	0.698	0.00247
Cubs	2749.7	0.688	2759.0	0.691	0.00234
Cardinals	3221.4	0.697	3229.0	0.698	0.00163
Expos	3061.6	0.692	3066.0	0.693	0.00100
Blue Jays	3104.6	0.681	3106.0	0.681	0.00032
Royals	3229.7	0.690	3231.0	0.690	0.00027
Phillies	3074.0	0.702	3073.0	0.701	-0.00022
Marlins	3000.9	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00045
Red Sox	3081.8	0.685	3076.0	0.684	-0.00129
Rangers	3066.9	0.677	3060.0	0.675	-0.00152
Pirates	3203.5	0.693	3196.0	0.691	-0.00163
Reds	3203.9	0.690	3195.0	0.688	-0.00192
Athletics	3123.0	0.714	3112.0	0.712	-0.00250
Rockies	3176.2	0.681	3163.0	0.678	-0.00284
Padres	3023.0	0.698	3009.0	0.695	-0.00323
Diamondbacks	2902.4	0.693	2888.0	0.689	-0.00343
Orioles	3153.3	0.688	3132.0	0.683	-0.00465
Dodgers	2846.9	0.708	2828.0	0.703	-0.00470
Brewers	3146.7	0.688	3123.0	0.683	-0.00519
Mets	3137.5	0.696	3099.0	0.688	-0.00855
Tigers	3331.3	0.693	3283.0	0.683	-0.01006
Yankees	3119.8	0.690	3074.0	0.679	-0.01013

One thing for sure, no matter how you measure it, the Mariners are great and the Yankees are poor. One of the more interesting moves is by the Red Sox. They move up to the middle of the pack from the very bottom when you don't include the park as a parameter. This makes sense, since the green monster makes many balls unfieldable. A very similar move happens with the Twins due to the baggy and the fast artifical turf on which they play.

I think the next step is to compare each field with the overall model for the majors to see where in each stadium the biggest differences are.

I'm starting work again on my probabilistic model of range. (You can read about my previous work here.) These will come in a series of posts that I hope I will be able to gather together into a single paper. The following table is for the complete 2003 season, and is based on the same statistics as my previous output.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3051.8	0.705	3120.0	0.720	0.01574
Phillies	3013.8	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01350
Cardinals	3171.7	0.686	3229.0	0.698	0.01240
White Sox	2978.2	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00929
Angels	3069.1	0.693	3108.0	0.702	0.00877
Padres	2974.9	0.687	3009.0	0.695	0.00788
Dodgers	2797.7	0.696	2828.0	0.703	0.00753
Braves	3117.6	0.690	3150.0	0.697	0.00717
Expos	3035.7	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00684
Reds	3166.7	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00610
Astros	2960.7	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00480
Brewers	3104.6	0.679	3123.0	0.683	0.00404
Royals	3221.4	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00205
Cubs	2753.6	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00136
Marlins	2993.6	0.691	2999.0	0.692	0.00124
Rockies	3162.6	0.678	3163.0	0.678	0.00008
Orioles	3135.9	0.684	3132.0	0.683	-0.00086
Indians	3195.5	0.699	3190.0	0.698	-0.00121
Devil Rays	3213.7	0.709	3204.0	0.707	-0.00213
Athletics	3125.2	0.715	3112.0	0.712	-0.00302
Giants	3105.6	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00335
Twins	3243.3	0.703	3226.0	0.699	-0.00375
Tigers	3310.6	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00575
Mets	3126.2	0.694	3099.0	0.688	-0.00604
Blue Jays	3134.7	0.687	3106.0	0.681	-0.00629
Rangers	3117.8	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01275
Pirates	3259.0	0.705	3196.0	0.691	-0.01363
Diamondbacks	2949.8	0.704	2888.0	0.689	-0.01476
Yankees	3146.3	0.695	3074.0	0.679	-0.01599
Red Sox	3151.5	0.700	3076.0	0.684	-0.01678

I've received a lot of positive feedback about this approach, and some constructive criticism. A number of researchers believe that these figures need to be adjusted for the park and the the handedness of the pitcher. My next step is to make those adjustments and see what happens. Stay tuned.

Jeter just made a terrific play in the hole. He back-handed Mike Lowell's grounder, spun, jumped and threw Mike out a first, and it wasn't close. I thought for sure it would be a hit.

I complain a lot about Derek Jeter's defense, but he just made a very nice play on a ball chopped over Clemens' head by Rodriguez. Jeter charged in, got a good hop and fired Pudge out at first.

Soriano just hit one into short center. Watching Damon run after the ball, you can see the difference between him and Williams. Damon would have gotten to Millar's ball. Williams would not have gotten to Soriano's.

Derek Jeter finally makes a nice play at shortstop. He dove to his left, kept his eye on the ball, made a strong but wide throw to Johnson who tagged the runner. We should see that more often from Derek.

Matsui takes a page out of Jim Rice's playbook, and does a good decoy in left field to make Millar think he was going to catch the ball off the wall. He might have saved a run there. Sox, after an intentional walk, have the bases loaded and Varitek is pinch hitting for Mirabelli.

Update: Varitek hits a slow ball to shortstop, and the Yankees fail to turn the double play, although it was close. Then they make another baserunning blunder to end the inning. It's 3-1 Red Sox after 7. Mussina was taken out of the game after the Varitek RBI. He goes 6 2/3, gives up three earned runs and strikes out 10.

First Jeter, now Soriano gets to show he can't play the middle of the infield. The official scorer gave Manny Ramirez a hit on that, but a good second baseman makes that play. The DP looms large now.

Kapler leads off with an infield single off Pettitte. It was a play in the whole that a great shortstop would have made (or at least, it would have been a close play at first). Jeter didn't get the throw off.

Joe Buck's words as Millar drives in Ramirez. How many balls get by Jeter in the hole before someone realizes he can't play there anymore? Red Sox lead 5-0 in the 7th.

For the second time tonight Alex Gonzalez grounds out to Alex Gonzalez.

Torii Hunter tagged up and went to 2nd on a fly ball to Bernie Williams in centerfield. Bernie had to relay the ball to Jeter, who almost got Hunter at 2nd. But Williams isn't strong enough to throw the ball in to 2nd on the fly. Dave Justice is being properly crticial of this during the broadcast. It's another reason Bernie should not be in centerfield anymore.

Chipper Jones is a great hitter, but he can't play defense. They moved him from third because he couldn't handle the hot corner, and now twice today he's shied away from balls near the ivy covered walls of Wrigley that he could have caught. Simon got a double on Jones' timidity, and Damien Miller hits a solid double to left to cut the lead to two. It's 6-4 Braves, with no out, and Lofton representing the tying run.

Update: Lofton strikes out for out #1. Because Sosa bats third, he'll probably have a chance to tie or win this game with one swing.

Update: Smoltz is going after Sosa with first base open. Sosa has never hit a HR off Smoltz in 41 AB, according to the broadcast.

Update: Grudzielanek pops out, it's up to Sosa.

Jeter throws away the third out in the 5th innings, bringing up Pettitte nemesis Shannon Stewart. I wonder when some announcer will say that Jeter can't play short any more?

Update: Soriano fails to get to a ball up the middle, giving Stewart another hit and putting runners at first and third. The key to beating the Yankees is putting the ball in play up the middle, and the Twins are doing that in this inning with the grounders to the middle infielders. Rivas makes the mistake of grounding to third, and Boone throws him out.

This is why Pettitte's eight strikeouts are so important. They are balls that weren't put in play so the defense couldn't botch them.

This is the next article in a series on a system I'm developing which I'm calling a probabilistic Model of Range. If you haven't been following the discussion, you should read these posts first:

1. A probabilistic Model of Range
2. More on Probability and Range
3. Range Rankings

Here is the updated list of range rankings, through Thursday, Sept. 25, 2003.

In my original post on the probabilistic model of range, I ranked teams based on the ratio of balls turned into outs to expected outs. I didn't really like that, but again, I was in a hurry on Friday.

One of the nice things about long bike rides is that you can think about these things, and I decide what I was really doing was figuring out expected and actual DERs, and I could just rank teams by the difference. So here's the data (updated through yesterday) ranked by difference in DER.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	2931.0	0.703	3001.0	0.720	0.01678
Phillies	2892.0	0.687	2958.0	0.703	0.01568
Cardinals	3064.6	0.685	3125.0	0.698	0.01350
Dodgers	2649.5	0.696	2690.0	0.706	0.01063
Angels	2946.9	0.693	2982.0	0.701	0.00825
Braves	2998.1	0.689	3032.0	0.697	0.00778
Expos	2938.5	0.684	2969.0	0.691	0.00711
Padres	2844.9	0.688	2874.0	0.695	0.00704
White Sox	2849.5	0.694	2878.0	0.701	0.00694
Reds	3045.3	0.681	3068.0	0.686	0.00507
Astros	2838.3	0.698	2858.0	0.703	0.00483
Brewers	2990.4	0.680	3010.0	0.685	0.00445
Royals	3059.0	0.688	3078.0	0.692	0.00427
Orioles	2979.8	0.683	2985.0	0.684	0.00120
Cubs	2658.7	0.689	2661.0	0.690	0.00060
Marlins	2869.1	0.690	2871.0	0.691	0.00046
Indians	3098.7	0.698	3094.0	0.697	-0.00106
Athletics	3007.5	0.716	3000.0	0.714	-0.00178
Twins	3099.8	0.702	3089.0	0.700	-0.00244
Giants	2966.0	0.710	2955.0	0.708	-0.00263
Rockies	3060.2	0.681	3048.0	0.679	-0.00272
Devil Rays	3080.4	0.708	3068.0	0.705	-0.00285
Tigers	3170.8	0.691	3140.0	0.685	-0.00672
Mets	3012.5	0.694	2982.0	0.687	-0.00704
Blue Jays	3009.1	0.688	2975.0	0.680	-0.00780
Rangers	3007.0	0.688	2954.0	0.676	-0.01212
Diamondbacks	2840.2	0.705	2784.0	0.691	-0.01393
Pirates	3162.3	0.706	3092.0	0.690	-0.01568
Red Sox	3012.4	0.701	2939.0	0.683	-0.01706
Yankees	3012.6	0.695	2935.0	0.677	-0.01791

I like this ranking better. It's a good starting point to start looking at individual positions and fielders on a team.

Last Friday, I wrote about the beginnings of a probabilistic model of range for fielders. In doing so I neglected to cite the work of Michael Lichtman, leading Michael to make this comment in a thread on Baseball Primer:

David's work is EXACTLY the same as my UZR and it would be nice if he referenced it as such. A person doing work in an area has a responsibility to research the work already done in that area.

Park effects CANNOT be included in these kinds of results, other than the effect that the park (weather, altitude, turf) has on the speed of the batted ball and to some small extent, the percentage of line drives, fly balls, and ground balls. So you might see SOME park effects reflected in this kind of analysis, but not much. The Oakland and Coors Field thing may be more of a coincidence than anything else.

Also, a significant part of park effects is the size of the foul territory (e.g., Oakland and LA). That normally doesn't show up in any kind of defensive measure, including Pinto's version of UZR...

I have apologized for my oversite, and Michael has thanked me for that. However, I'd like to disagree that our systems are exactly the same, and point out what I see as the differences.

First of all, what Michael deserves credit for is the methodology. He looked at the probability of getting outs in a zone for an average fielder and is comparing that to a given fielder. This is a probabilistic model, although he doesn't state this explicitly. His model is p(o,f|zone), or in English, the probability of an out by a fielder given the zone the ball is hit into. If you look back at my post I state my model as the following:

I'm asking the question, what is the probability of a batted ball becoming an out, given the parameters of that batted ball?

There's an important difference here. Michael is starting with zone ratings, and putting them in a probabilistic model. I'm starting with a probabilistic model, and I really don't care what the parameters turn out to be, as long as they work. The difference can really be seen in part II of Lichtman's post. Here, he's adjusting for all kinds of different factors. He figures out an adjustment factor (for example, a park effect), then multiplies his original figure by that. In my model, these factors would just be more parameters. No special adjustments are needed.

Also, in this work, I'm trying to get rid of any sort of defined zone. In order to decide if a ball is in a zone, you have to know the distance it traveled. But that distance depends on the whether or not a fielder stopped the ball. So two line drives that are similar otherwise will look very different if a fielder catches one but not the other. Does it make a difference? I'm not sure, but the idea of a zone is an artifical construct, and I would rather have it fall out from the parameters of the batted ball than from post-contact factors.

One of the other things I never liked about zone ratings (by the way, I worked extensively on the zone rating code when I was at STATS, Inc.) is that they do nothing to rate pitchers and catchers, and Michael kept this feature in his UZR. One reason for this is that zones are hard to define for these fielders. But since this work moves beyond the zone, it's not a problem. We can measure catcher and fielder stats as well as any other position. I consider this a big improvement over zone ratings.

Finally, the treatment of errors. STATS and Lichtman treat errors as if they were actually balls on which the fielder recorded an out. I once witnessed a lively discussion between Bill James and John Dewan over this. Bill thought this was wrong, that if you don't make the play you shouldn't get credit for getting to the ball. John disagreed. I did not have strong feelings about this at the time, but I've come down on Bill's side. One nice thing about this, you don't have to make a separate adjustment for the errors, as UZR does. There are just two types of balls, outs and non-outs. It doesn't matter if the non-out is an error or not; the fielder's probability will be lower, and since you would expect the errors to occur on easier balls, the fielder will pay a big penalty for his errors automatically (I have not proved the previous statement, but should be able to see if it's true once the complete system is in place).

Michael Lichtman deserves the credit for coming up with the idea of thinking about fielding in terms of probability of balls in a zone. My work has extended that idea and formalized it, making it easier to compute, and extending it to fielders not previously covered.

Measuring the ability of fielders to turn batted balls into outs is one of the most unyielding areas of baseball research. Part of the problem was that for a long time, we didn't have good information. What we'd like to produce is a number that represents the player's range. Early attempts at this looked at plays per game; as we got defensive innings, we were able to make this plays per 9. But this did not adjust for important elements; how many batters a pitcher strikes out, or the handedness of the staff.

When STATS, Inc. started keeping data, it also collected parameters about the batted ball; its distance, direction, how hard it was hit, the type (ground, fly, etc.) and with that they created Zone Ratings to try to compensate for the unknown information. Zone Ratings gives you credit for all balls a fielder turns into an out, while penalizing them for balls not fielded within their zone. The problem with zone ratings is that all balls in the zone are treated the same. One might imagine that balls hit to the edge of the zone are harder to field than balls hit in the middle of the zone (where you would expect the fielder to position himself).

One of the big discoveries of recent years is that pitchers don't seem to effect fielding stats that much. A recent discussion of this can be found in this previous post. Let's just say that the amount a pitcher effects balls in play going for hits is up for discussion.

I work at the CIIR at UMass, and our much of our current work involves using probablistic models to understand and retrieve documents (where "document is a very generic term, not limited to text). So I thought, why not apply these to fielding? I'm asking the question, what is the probability of a batted ball becoming an out, given the parameters of that batted ball?

I've used the STATS, Inc. database to obtain three parameters for each ball; its direction (a slice of pie fanning out from home plate), its batted type (ground, fly, line, bunt or pop) and how hard the ball was hit (soft, medium or hard). I then did a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability of an out given those three parameters for each of the nine fielders. Mathematically, you might write it p(o,f|d,t,h).

Let's look at a specific example. Take a ground ball up the middle to the leftfield side of 2nd base, hit with medium speed. The probability of the batter reaching base is .416. The probability of the pitcher turning it into an out is .312. Shortstop, .258; second base, .013; catcher, .0009 (these may not add up due to rounding). If it were a line drive instead of a ground ball, the probabilities change:

Batter Reached	.749
Centerfielder	.193
Pitcher	.04
Shortstop	.018

Now, how do we use this information? These probabilities can be thought of as expectations; if a team has 1000 balls hit as line drives to the above direction with medium speed, 25% of them would be turned into outs. So if a team is turning more than 25% of those into outs, they are exceeding expectations. So my first attempt at using this information is to figure out, for each team, how many balls put into play against them should have been turned into at least one out. I'll then compare that to how many they actually turned into outs, and see what teams exceed expectations the most:

Team	Expected	Actual	Ratio
Mariners	2878.0	2947.0	1.024
Phillies	2851.9	2916.0	1.022
Cardinals	3003.4	3063.0	1.020
Dodgers	2588.2	2635.0	1.018
Expos	2871.4	2911.0	1.014
Angels	2894.2	2927.0	1.011
White Sox	2790.3	2821.0	1.011
Padres	2790.8	2819.0	1.010
Braves	2939.2	2964.0	1.008
Brewers	2931.3	2952.0	1.007
Reds	2995.5	3011.0	1.005
Cubs	2590.7	2602.0	1.004
Astros	2783.2	2795.0	1.004
Royals	3002.0	3014.0	1.004
Orioles	2918.9	2930.0	1.004
Athletics	2955.1	2952.0	0.999
Marlins	2813.7	2810.0	0.999
Indians	3044.8	3040.0	0.998
Twins	3043.8	3036.0	0.997
Rockies	2996.7	2988.0	0.997
Devil Rays	3018.4	3009.0	0.997
Giants	2912.0	2899.0	0.996
Tigers	3116.0	3091.0	0.992
Mets	2950.0	2924.0	0.991
Blue Jays	2950.7	2911.0	0.987
Rangers	2952.2	2901.0	0.983
Diamondbacks	2796.2	2739.0	0.980
Pirates	3089.5	3020.0	0.978
Red Sox	2963.2	2888.0	0.975
Yankees	2959.6	2876.0	0.972

I will eventually extend this to each position on the team, then to individual fielders. One think to note, the Phillies do better here than they do in DER. I'm gone until Sunday night, but I hope this gives you something to think about. Enjoy your weekend!

Update: I mistakenly did not look for other research in this area. I'll point you to two posts on Baseball Primer by Michael Lichtman for a stat call UZR, or ultimate zone rating. Part I is here, and part II is here. The methodolgy is the same, although I think there are minor differences in the way we treat the data. I have to digest Michael's system a little more, but I'll be commenting on this soon.

Correction, 12/23/2003: Corrected a typo. Changed "So my first attempt at using this information is to figure out, for each team, how many balls put into play against them were turned into at least one out. I'll then compare that to how many they actually turned into outs, and see what teams exceed expectations the most:" to "So my first attempt at using this information is to figure out, for each team, how many balls put into play against them should have been turned into at least one out. I'll then compare that to how many they actually turned into outs, and see what teams exceed expectations the most:"'

Back in June I posted runs created against the defense. Basically, I took the most current runs created formula STATS has, took out stats that are attributable to the pitcher, (HR, BB, HBP, K), and figured runs created per 27 defensive outs. Here's the chart through yesterday:

Team	Runs Created Against Defense
Mariners	2.84
Dodgers	2.86
Athletics	2.88
Giants	3.18
Devil Rays	3.29
Angels	3.32
Astros	3.36
White Sox	3.38
Indians	3.38
Braves	3.39
Cubs	3.41
Phillies	3.44
Tigers	3.52
Expos	3.52
Pirates	3.58
Padres	3.66
Cardinals	3.77
Diamondbacks	3.77
Twins	3.77
Mets	3.79
Marlins	3.82
Royals	3.84
Brewers	3.87
Orioles	3.91
Reds	3.94
Rockies	4.03
Blue Jays	4.07
Red Sox	4.14
Yankees	4.23
Rangers	4.37

It looks like the Giants have really improved their defense. They wee ranked 14th in early June, 4th today. The White Sox having a better defense than the Twins was not an anomoly. I think most people would assume the Twins are the better defensive team, but it's just not true. So much for having a great defensive first baseman. The AL East is a waste land. It makes me wonder if these teams have good offenses because they play each other so often. (I just checked, and the Red Sox and Yankees scored higher outside of the division, the Blue Jays score the same in or out). There's lots of room for improvement here. Bernie Williams is 35 today. At this point, I think Matsui is the better centerfielder. It's time to switch the two of them in the outfield. The west coast, on the other hand, is all defense. Five of the top six teams border the Pacific Ocean. I haven't taken park effects into account, so that may be helping these teams. I welcome any comments on this stat.

I just saw Torii Hunter make a bad play. Joe Crede hit a ball to deep center, to the warning track. Hunter went back, reached out, but appear to shy away from the ball at the last minute and it dropped for a double. It scored a run, and moved a runner to third who then scored on a sac fly. It would have been a good play if Hunter had made it, but it's the kind of ball you expect a good CF to catch. White Sox lead 2-0.

I don't get much of a chance to write about good defense on the Yankees, but Matsui just made a fantastic catch. With a one run lead, two on and two out Bigbi hits one the opposite way, deep. Matsui sprinted toward the left field corner and warning track, reached out, caught the ball, and crashed into the wall. He hung on, looked dazed, but ended the inning.

It figures. I take the dog out and I miss an unassisted triple play! Congrats to Furcal. You don't see those very often.

Update: As Jon Miller just pointed out, the HD picture gave you a much better view of the triple play. There have been a couple of times that I noticed the HD picture was giving you a better view of the defense. You can see more defenders moving at once, so you get a better idea of what's going on.

More good defense in this game. Ichiro makes a catch sliding on his behind in shallow right center. Amazing body control and hand-eye coordination.

David Dellucci, with the bases loaded and two out, makes a terrific catch to end the inning. In RF, Delllucci had to run far to his left, nearly to the foul line, to make a diving catch of a Ben Davis pop. Jeff Weaver owes him a dinner for that one. (The runs would have been Weaver's; the ball was hit off Hitchcock.)

With all the criticism I give the Yankees middle infielders, Soriano just made a nice play to save a run. With a man on third and the infield in, Soriano dove to his right to knock down a ball, froze the runner at third and threw out the batter. The Yankees get out of the inning as McLemore flies out to right. It's 1-0 Seattle in the 2nd.

Darren Viola points out this article by Eli Saslow of the Newark Star-Ledger. It's about math professor Michael Hoban and his quest to devise a formula that rated shortstops. What surprised Hoban was that his formula rated Jeter the worst defender:

Desperate to discover the worst shortstop in major league baseball, Hoban spent day after day perfecting a complicated equation. He lived behind a 2,696-page baseball statistics guide, typing out numbers until his fingers hurt and pondering decimal points until his head spun.

Now, he had come just a few keystrokes away from unveiling the worst fielding shortstop in the game. He punched the last key:

Derek Jeter.

Wait. That couldn't be right. Hoban reevaluated statistics and double-checked his equation and plugged in more numbers and punched the key again. Still Jeter.

Uh-oh.

"I was surprised, very surprised," Hoban said recently."I didn't think I'd see his name at the bottom of the list, but it's there. And these numbers don't lie."

Jeter doesn't believe it.

"I'm the worst?" Jeter said when confronted with the numbers. "I don't think I would say that. But I couldn't really care less what some mathematical equation comes out with."

Later, Jeter makes an intelligent argument:

"How to you rank defensive shortstops?" Jeter said. "I don't see how a formula can evaluate how somebody plays.

"You get a strikeout pitcher on the mound as opposed to a ground-ball pitcher, it's going to affect the statistics you use to evaluate defense. So I don't really think you can."

Now, Jeter has a point with the strikeouts. And from the way the article describes the formula, I don't trust it that much myself. For example, the most heavily weighted factor is fielding percentage, and frankly, MLB shortstop fielding percentages are not all that different. What gets Jeter in the formula is his range, and range will be effected by the handedness of the pitchers on your team and their propensity for strikeouts.

But these have been adjusted for. In looking at this article, I wondered if Hoban had read Win Shares. That formula does take into account all of the things Jeter was refering to in his point about strikeouts. Here's Jeter's win shares per 162 games by year:

Mark Redman is throwing a two-hitter, despite striking out only 1. The Marlins don't have a great defense (they have the third worst DER in the NL). I guess the Braves are hitting everything right at somebody.

While watching the Expos-Mets, I just saw Ron Calloway almost make a terrific play. Burnitz smoked one into deep right field. Calloway ran back and to his left to try to make the play, but the ball was just beyond his glove. The ball bounced off the wall, and Calloway barehanded it turned and threw a strike in the air to second base. Burnitz only beat the throw barely. Calloway showed a Guerrero like arm on that play.

I just turned on the Yankees game to watch the top of the fifth. First batter, Berkman, hits a slow roller between 1st and 2nd. Soriano runs over, dives ... and totally misses the ball. Then Hidalgo hits a soft line drive that Jeter jumps for ... and it goes off his glove. They did then turn a DP, but I see fielders make both those plays all the time.

In all fairness, in the bottom of the fifth, Kent bobbled a double play ball and could only get Jeter at first, leaving Soriano at 2nd rather than getting out of the inning. The Giambi had an RBI single and Posada a HR, so this time, the opposition made the costly mistake.

I was trying to find another way to calculate defense other than using defensive efficiency. I decided to look at runs created against the defense. So I use the runs created formula, but don't use HR, walks, HBP and strikeouts. Here's the result:

Team	Runs Created per 27 Outs Against Defense
Athletics	2.57
Mariners	2.59
Dodgers	2.89
Tigers	3.07
Cubs	3.19
Braves	3.20
White Sox	3.21
Cardinals	3.24
Pirates	3.26
Expos	3.28
Phillies	3.35
Angels	3.37
Twins	3.43
Giants	3.44
Devil Rays	3.53
Indians	3.56
Diamondbacks	3.62
Astros	3.74
Royals	3.87
Brewers	3.89
Mets	3.94
Padres	4.11
Orioles	4.14
Reds	4.17
Blue Jays	4.30
Yankees	4.38
Marlins	4.39
Rockies	4.42
Red Sox	4.46
Rangers	4.85

One of the problems with DER is that every non-out counts the same. But it matters if the hits you are giving up are mostly singles or if there is a higher proportion of extra-base hits. The A's and Mariners are doing a great job of stopping runs. The Red Sox and Rangers aren't. The Yankees do a big better in this measure than they do in DER, but it's nothing to write home about. The other interesting team here is the Tigers who are doing very well. If they could just hit, they might win some games.

How often are we going to read this?

But some sloppy Yankees fielding helped the Cubs add a pair in the seventh. After Mark Grudzielanek singled, Gonzalez bunted and Juan Acevedo threw wildly past first. Alfonso Soriano picked up the ball and made a bad throw to second, allowing Grudzielanek to score before Sosa hit an RBI single.

And those two runs made the difference in an 8-7 Cubs win.

For the 2nd game in a row, the Yankees defense has prevented their starter from getting a win. Pettitte leaves with the score 3-3. He should be leading 3-2.

I'm sorry to keep harping on this. I'm watching the Yankees-Reds, and Pettitte retires the first 10 batters. Sean Casey comes up, and hits a wicked line drive at Soriano. Now, I was never much of a fielder, but I remember they taught me to get in front of the ball. Soriano moves away from the ball and tries to field it by sticking out his glove. Of course, it goes by Soriano for a base hit. Kaat and O'Neill make the excuse that it's a hard hit ball and Soriano can't be expected to give up his body for it. Huh? That's exactly what Soriano should do. If it hits him in the chest, he throws the guy out.

Then of course, Griffey singles, runners on first on third, then on an easy DP ball, Soriano makes a bad throw, pulls Jeter off the bag, and Jeter can't make the throw to first in time. Tie game. Soriano gets the DP on the next batter, but where Pettitte should have a shutout, he gives up a run on shoddy defense.

Andy Pettitte's defense has cost him today. Errors by Ventura and Matsui have led to three unearned runs. While the Yankees fielding percentage isn't bad, the Yankees rank behind only Texas in defensive efficiency, the ability to turn a batted ball into an out. Two third of all batted balls (not counting HR) are allowed to fall for hits. It's a good thing their pitchers strike out as many as they do to cover this weakness.

Steve Amamoto writes concerning my post about Yorvit Torrealba:

I think there is a need to better define what is meant by a catcher's defense. By relating it to catcher's ERA I think you are mixing up defense and pitch selection/working with the pitchers. I think of catcher's defense as comprising things like blocking pitches in the dirt, ability to control the opponent's running game, handling plays at the plate and maybe ability to receive pitches to help get calls. Catcher's ERA is more related to pitch selection and working with the pitchers.

For the Giants, Santiago is far more experienced at calling a game and he is still pretty good at throwing out baserunners. But I think Benito gets a little lazy at times when it comes to moving his body to block errant pitches.Yorvit Torrealba is still a young catcher. He has looked better at the plate than expected, but is nowhere near the offensive player that Santiago is. I haven't looked up the stats, but you also need to look at which pitchers the catcher is working with. In 2002 Torrealba got a lot of his starts catching another rookie, Ryan Jensen. Jensen got a surprising number of wins (13), but he has very average stuff and proved to be very hittable (1.45 WHIP, 4.51 ERA).

 
2002 stats 
                  Ins.   PB      CS%        CERA 
Santiago       1066.2     7    .301        3.48
Torrealba       363.2     0    .282        3.74

Catcher's defense encompasses many things. Ivan Rodriguez has a great arm, but he's not known as a catcher who calls a good game. If you shut down the running game, but your pitch calling causes a lot of baserunners to reach base, you haven't done your job. You can't pick one part of the catcher's game and say he's a good defensive catcher. You have to look at the totality.

Doug Purdie writes in response to this post:

Giants' announcers Mike Krukow, Duane Kuiper and John Miller report that Toreallba's defense is better than Santiago's. I haven't seen him behind the plate enough to make my own judgement, but if their report is true defense doesn't explain why Giants' pitchers' ERA is higher when Yorvit is behind the plate. The announcing team also report that Giants' pitchers like Santiago better because he knows the hitters better and therefore calls a better game. Makes sense to me.

Thanks, Doug!

It seems somehow appropriate that Boston's first run today comes as a result of a Carl Everett error.

Steve Bonner writes:

David, I've been reading a few of the Yankees blogs that are linked to via Baseball Musings. Quite a few writers are saying that Yankee fans should be worried because a) The Yankees bullpen is quite sketchy, and
b) the defense is woeful.

I checked the defenseive stats for the Yankees through last nights action and noticed that almost half of their errors this season have come from Almonte. 2B, 1B and CF are all error free as is C.

I know that I was terribly disappointed by the Yankees defens in the series against Anaheim last year but it looks to me as if things have gotten better. Giambi hasn't magically discovered new range and Bernie's arm probably isn't any better. But I don't think the Yankees are as sloppy on defense as they were last year.

My question is, does the Yankees defense look better to you this year or is it just too early to tell?

Good question, Steve. The defensive stat I like best is DER, that measures how often a ball put into play against a defense is turned into an out. I commented on how the Yankees have a poor DER a few days ago. At that time, it was .647. They have since brought it up to .665, so their defense has been better lately. But that still isn't that good. So yes, the Yankees defense can hurt them down the road. But there are two mitigating circumstances:

1. The Yankee pitchers are striking out more batters than last year (7.7 vs 7.0 per 9 IP), and that means the defense has to make fewer plays.


2. The Yankee batters are striking out less, which means they are putting more balls in play so the opposition has to make more plays. And it means the Yankees will get more hits.

Yes, the defense and bullpen is weak. But the offense and starting pitching is so strong, those weaknesses are easily covered up. Sure, they can hurt them in the post-season; in a short series weaknesses can be easily magnified. But I would expect the Yankees to address the bullpen if it continues to be an issue, and I think the offense is good enough (especially if Jeter returns and Giambi starts to hit) to cover the weak defense.

The Cleveland Indians repeated their four error performance of opening day against the White Sox this afternoon. The errors led to seven unearned runs. The Indians had only one 4-error game all last year.

An interesting matchup in the Yankees-Twins game. Defensive Efficiency measures the ability of a defense to turn a ball in play (other than HRs) into an out. The Twins lead the majors with a mark of .757 (or, 76% of balls put into play against them are turned into outs). The Yankees have the worst DER at .647. That means that for every 100 balls put into play against these two clubs, the Twins will get 11 more outs. That's almost four innings worth of outs. The Yankee pitchers make up for this somewhat by walking few batters and allowing few HR. But the Twins have a 3.22 ERA, and the Yankees a 3.35 ERA.

Of course, after this discourse, Soriano leads off with a HR!

The Minnesota Twins have a DER of .759. That's 20 points higher than any other team. That means the Twin get about 7 more innings of outs from 1000 balls in play than any other team. No wonder their pitchers have only allowed a .214 BA.

Here's a piece I wrote last year about using defensive efficiency, which helps explain the stat. It's from May 26th, 2002.

Once again, errors are the difference in the game. The Astros made two errors leading to five unearned runs. If those errors are not committed, the Astros probably win by 2.

Al Martin got throw out stealing in the first inning of the Yankees game. He's the fifth runner the Yankees have thrown out this year in 6 tries. That's the best CS% in the majors.

Update: Travis Lee led off the 2nd with a walk. After a strikeout, Lee tried stealing and got caught. The Rays are now 1 of 5 stealing against the Yankees this year. Do you think Piniella will figure out that this strategy doesn't work against this team?

Craig Stambaugh points out that after yesterday's post, the Pirates made two errors in the Cubs game today and lost.

Kerry Wood also had something to do with it, as he struck out 13 and only allowed 3 hits.

Shane Spencer might have just cost the Indians a chance to tie this game. He went for a triple with none out in the top of the ninth, and Desi Relaford threw him out at third from right field. The Royals win, 1-0 and are now 8-0. According to Bill James, they'll only win 58 more games this year. :-)

Michael Tucker just made a great running catch for the Royals. John McDonald lauched a ball to deep left center, and Tucker on the full run got his glove up and had the ball settle right in. Made it look easy.

The KC Royals have the 2nd best defensive efficiency record in the majors. Catches like that are a reason why.

(Defensive efficiency is the percent of balls in play that are turned into outs. If you have a good DER, your pitchers can afford to have more balls put into play against them. If your team has a low DER, you better have a staff that can strike out a lot of batters.)

Once difference in the Pirates-Cubs game today is that the Cubs made an error and the Pirates didn't. That error led to an unearned run, which proved to be the margin of victory. I once saw a stat about team winning percentages when making at least 1 error, and teams that did so had a very poor winning percentage. This year so far, teams that make at least 1 error in a game are 67-75, a .472 winning percentage. Teams that don't make an error in a game are 70-62, a .530 winning percentage.

The Reds allowed three unearned runs in the Cubs four run first. That's 8 unearned runs the Reds have allowed in 6 games. That's creating more work for their pitchers, and for their offense.

Bernie Williams and Travis Lee robbed each other. In the bottom of the third, Lee hit a high fly ball to deep center. Bernie ran back to the wall, and doing his best Willie Mays, caught the ball over his shoulder as he crashed into the dead centerfield barrier.

In the top of the fourth, Bernie came up and hit a hard grounder right inside the first base line. Lee dived to his left to snare the ball, then tossed to an alert Joe Kennedy covering to take away an extra-base hit from Williams. It's 2-1 Devil Rays after 4.

Great play by Orlando Cabrera. Marcus Giles hit one up the middle. Cabrera dove for the grounder to stop it, then threw from his knees to nail Giles. Expos lead 4-0.

So far, the Braves have scored 2 runs vs. the Expos. Is it the Braves offense or the Expos pitching? I might suggest it's the Expos defense. As I'm listening to Skip Caray, he's talking about all the great defensive plays the Expos have made in this series. Expos pitchers have only struck out 13 in the three game through 8 innings tonight. So a lot of balls have been put in play. None have gone out of the park (good pitching), but the Braves were only batting .215 coming into the game. That's probably the defense. We'll see how this holds up against other opponents.

Update: Cabrera made another great play stopping a grounder up the middle to end the game. According to the broadcast, it's the first time the Braves were shutout in consecutive games since 1992.

You don't see this too often. Barajas on 2nd for the DBacks, Womack hits a hard ground ball to the 2nd baseman Cora, who fires to third to get Barajas trying to advance. A great play, but costly if it fails.

If Sox fans were worried about Todd Walker's defense, he's ended the first two innings with excellent defensive plays.

I'm watching the Red Sox at Devil Rays right now. Red Sox have scored first, mostly because of two poor fielding plays by the 2nd and 3rd baseman.

I was starting to think Valentine might not be too bad after his fight analysis (it's not a problem), but then he started talking about great defensive teams. While I don't disagree with his picks, his argument was that they had great first basemen! Please, Bobby, it's nice to have a great glove at first base, but if the shortstop and second basemen can't reach the ball, the first baseman isn't going to have a lot to do.

Dan McLaughlin of the Baseball Crank pens this article on BaseballPrimer.com about the defense of the Yankees during the Stengel era. A great piece of work, read the whole thing.