Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 30, 2006
Francis Finalized
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The Colorado Rockies finished the deal to lock up Jeff Francis.

"I think at this point in my career, it's a huge thing and an exciting thing for them to come to me when they don't have to," Francis said Thursday after he and the Rockies finalized a $13.25 million, four-year contract. The deal also includes a $7 million team option for 2011.

Francis, who would have been eligible for arbitration after next season, was a key part of a surprisingly strong Colorado rotation last season, going 13-11 with a 4.16 ERA. The Rockies were contenders in the first half but then stumbled to another last-place finish in the NL West at 76-86.

The Rockies are doing the right thing, locking up a pitcher who is successful at Coors, and saving themselves from an arbitration headache.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Get Out the Check Book
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With Barry Zito showing interest in the Texas Rangers because of Ron Washington, I wonder if the Rangers will review their past:

Millwood was 16-12 after being the team's key free-agent addition last winter. Boras got the right-hander a $60 million, five-year deal.

Boras, the agent for Matsuzaka, also negotiated the $252 million, 10-year deal Alex Rodriguez got from the Rangers in December 2000, and Texas' $65 million, five-year contract for Chan Ho Park the next year.

Actually, the Millwood deal was pretty good, and they were getting the best player in baseball in A-Rod. The Park, deal, however, is one they'd like to forget.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Thinking Again
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Baseball Think Factory am again. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:17 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Reading Hardball
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The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 is now shipping. There's plenty of time to make it a Christmas present for the baseball fan you love.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
This Justin
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U.S.S Mariner explains why Mariners fans should be happy about the addition of Justin Lehr.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:24 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Future of Manny
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ProTrade asks its researchers to look at what a trade of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers would mean.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:12 PM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Yesterday, Ben Kabak noticed Royce Clayton's career OBA was a palindrome. That's enough of an excuse to link to this video.

The last line is my favorite, simply because I make a pretty mean lasagna.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 PM | Humor | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Doha Round Robin
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The South Korean press is pessimistic about the team's chances in the Asian games after they lose the opening game to Taiwan:

South Korea's hope to take the third straight baseball title at the Asian Games tumbled on Thursday as it lost 4-2 to Taiwan in what was regarded as the virtual final of the six-country competition in Doha, Qatar.

In their opener of the Doha Games held at the Al-Rayyan stadium, Chen Yung-chi hit two single homers and LA Dodgers pitcher Kuo Hung-chih held five innings to one run for Taiwan to outdo the favorite Korea. Son Min-han took the loss after allowing three runs on five hits, including two homers over 4 1/3 innings.

It appears difficult for Korea, winner of the Bangkok and Pusan Games, to win the round-robin competition even after winning the rest of the matches. As Japan is comprised mostly of amateur players and regarded a notch below the two countries, Taiwan is likely to beat the other participants including the Philippines, Thailand and China.

I wonder why they're playing in Qatar when all the teams are from East Asia? It's good they're trying to spread the game west, but it must make for tough viewing back home.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:46 AM | International | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Think Factory Down
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Many of you wondered what happened to Baseball Think Factory. Here's the explanation from Jim via Repoz:

"I'm working on this. Apparently there was some kind of snafu when I transferred the domain to a different registrar last year. Although the domain shows current until next year at the new registrar (goddaddy.com), the old registrar (registerfly.com) somehow still has control of the domain."

Feel free to leave comments here about issues you'd like them to discuss when they're back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Blogs | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Deal Killing Physical
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A physical killed the deal between the Phillies and Joe Borowski.

According to the sources, the Phillies were prepared to sign Borowski when a team doctor examined the results of the physical and advised against giving the pitcher a multiyear contract.

Borowski's agents, Ron Shapiro and Michael Maas, continue to field one-year offers from several clubs. It's believed they haven't ruled out resuming negotiations with Philadelphia.

I'm feeling a bit under the weather this morning, so blogging is likely to be light until this afternoon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 AM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 29, 2006
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | Podcasts | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Funny Foto
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Mr. Irrelevant posts a funny picture from a baseball wall calendar.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | Humor | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:20 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ricciardi's Out of the Club
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It's officially time to throw J.P. Ricciardi out of the Moneyball club.

Ricciardi also would like to sign a middle infielder this week. He planned on having Aaron Hill play shortstop but said he'll probably play second now.

"We like Royce Clayton. We like a lot of guys," Ricciardi said. "We're going to address that in the next few days."

We like Royce Clayton? Please excuse me while I go bang my head against the wall.

Update: The Jays actually signed Clayton:

Clayton's career on-base percentage is .313, and he has little power. However, the Jays should be formidable enough offensively after signing free-agent designated hitter Frank Thomas - presuming they keep center fielder Vernon Wells.

Clayton no longer is an elite defender, and his weaknesses could be highlighted playing on artificial turf at SkyDome. He still makes the routine plays, but had the third-lowest zone rating among the 15 qualifying National League shortstops last season.

So he's a lousy offensive player, and he's not a great defensive player, but at $1.5 million at least he's a cheap lousy player!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Management | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
No Love for Littlefield
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Larry Dobrow puts the problems of the Pirates squarely on Dave Littlefield's shoulders:

The Pittsburgh Pirates might be one of baseball's two or three franchises truly beyond resuscitation, and I can tell you why in three words: Dave Motherbleepin' Littlefield.

In his five tragic years as the team's executive zookeeper, Littlefield has committed the following offenses against common sense, among others: dealing away Aramis Ramirez for a bag of hair, dealing away Jason Schmidt for a bag of combs, prematurely giving up on Bronson "Brandon" Arroyo, and tying up the team's admittedly limited resources in negligible vets like Joe Randa, Jeromy Burnitz and Benito Santiago.

Amazingly, Dobrow notes the Pirates still have a chance to win the division, since the NL Central is so bad.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Too Many Platoons?
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Erik Cassano wonders if the Indians are headed toward too many platoons in 2007.

Tuesday's agree-to-terms with outfielder David Dellucci ostensibly adds yet another platoon player to the mix for the Indians. Left-handed hitting Dellucci will likely start against righties and play left field, while right-handed hitting Jason Michaels will start against lefties.

And that's just the beginning. The Indians are apparently gunning for the Guinness Book of World Records for the most platoons on a single baseball team.

Despite what Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge have said or will say, there are only two Indians players locked into their positions for 162 games, barring injury, as the 2007 roster stands right now.

Grady Sizemore is the undisputed center fielder. Travis Hafner is the undisputed designated hitter. That's it. Every other player on the roster has offensive or defensive questions, and could end up in a platoon situation.

Erik is worried that:

"versatile" is just a euphemism for "not good enough to play everyday."

But I like the idea. Another way of putting it is the Indians have a group that can play today. Of course, they'd have to go back to the nine man pitching staff to pull this off, another reason I'd like to see it happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:36 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Rays in Orlando?
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The Devil Rays are thinking about playing a series in Orlando this season:

Efforts to move the May 15-17 games against Texas from St. Petersburg to Orlando are in the early stages. Still to be dealt with are approvals from Major League Baseball, the players union, the city of St. Petersburg, and the umpires, but the deal could be completed in the next couple of weeks.

I assume they would use the facility at Disney World, which is a minor league ballpark. There's 9500 seats there, so Tampa Bay isn't going to help attendance by playing three games there (but they won't hurt it much, either). The goal is to build a new fan base, however, so maybe it's worth a try. I suppose it's better to play to a packed 10,000 people than to an empty dome with the same 10,000.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM | Stadiums | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
FishStripes Responds
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Yesterday I asked why the Marlins don't finance their own stadium. FishStripes explains:

The main reason is they can't afford it. According to Forbes, on April 6, 2006, the entire Marlins franchise was worth $226 million and had an operating income of $-11.9 million. Granted that has changed since the reduction in payroll wasn't in full swing until late November of 2005, so the balance sheet may look more favorable after the 2006 season. But still, I think it would be hard to secure financing to build a $425-$450 million dollar stadium when all the collateral the team could put up is $226 million. I'm no banker, but I would be surprised if the Marlins could secure that loan. The only way they could is if MLB wants to be banker.

Well, I don't think that's exactly right. The franchise itself has value, and any land the franchise buys then has value. Real estate tends to do very well in the long term. Also, the bank should take into account that if the Marlins get their own stadium where they receive the parking and concessions revenue, as well as all ticket revenue, the franchise would be worth a lot more. I don't think it takes all that much to get the Marlins franchise value to $500 million if they build a new stadium. My guess is that with all the extra revenue generated, they could pay the loan, which is all that really matters.


Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Stadiums | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Bean Town Update
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It looks like the Red Sox and J.D. Drew are going to work out a deal for five years, $70 million. Not bad given Drew's talent and the price of free agent outfielders this winter. He's taking a hit money wise for his injury history, but he's still getting a long term contract. Meanwhile, it appears real deals are being discussed for Manny Ramirez:

The Sox also remained deep in Manny Ramírez trade talks with the Padres, with San Diego sweetening its original offer, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks. The Padres are offering major league players for Ramírez, a package that presumably would have to include one of two pitchers: prime setup man Scott Linebrink or ace Jake Peavy. The Sox also have coveted Adrian Gonzalez, a lefthanded-hitting first baseman who put up outstanding numbers in his first full season in 2006: .304, 24 home runs, 38 doubles, and 82 RBIs.

The Dodgers also seem to be involved with names like Kemp, Loney, Broxton and LaRoche. And the article even mentions that Johnny Damon's contract with the Yankees doesn't seem so rich at the moment.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Free Agents | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
James on Defense
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Baseball Digest Daily interviews Bill James on the 2006 Fielding Bible Awards. Here he talks about Mike Lowell:

Mike Lowell is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He's extremely interesting to watch. He keeps his glove hand, his left hand, very relaxed, and he doesn't appear to anticipate the hop at all. What I am saying is. .. the announcers, the veteran baseball people will tell you that the key to making the plays is to get your body in the proper position to make the play. But in fact, if you actually watch the fielders, very often they can't handle a tough hop or a line drive at an awkward angle precisely because they're trying to play the ball with their whole body. They're relying on positioning their body to make the play, and when something happens that makes that impossible, they're just SOL. Lowell, if you watch him, seems to be saying "it is easier to react with my left arm than it is to re-position my whole body in anticipation of the play." He stays balanced, stays loose, reacts late and has extraordinary confidence in his ability to snag the ball with his glove at the last moment. I've never really seen anything like it before, but this looseness and unusual confidence, for example, gives him a remarkable ability to charge a ground ball. He can change a slow grounder top speed because he knows that, bad hop or good hop, in-between stride or on stride, he can slap at the ball with his glove and pick it out of the air.

The interview is definitely worth the read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM | Defense • | Interviews | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
November 28, 2006
Sub Base Moves to Baltimore
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The readers of MetsBlog.com think New York did the right thing by letting Chad Bradford become an Oriole.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Win the Bidding
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The Yankees won the bidding for Kei Igawa, for the paltry sum of $25 million. His stats are here. He looks pretty good. His strikeout, walk and home run numbers in Japan are excellent. He's mature but not old. He's not Matsusaka, but I bet he can be effective in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | International | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Adding From the East
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Fire Brand of the American League is happy the Red Sox are going after Japanese pitcher Hideki Okajima:

I like this for many reasons: One, it appears the Orioles are gobbling up every potential setup man on the market without the Sox getting anyone. Secondly, his numbers last season were filthy: 2.14 ERA, 63 K in 54 IP. In addition to Okajima's effectiveness, I'm willing to bet this is to help Matsuzaka's transition - a fellow Japanese player speaking the same language and going through the same adjustment period.

And if for some reason they fail to sign Matsuzaka, they still have a Japanese presence on the club that will help them sell to Asia.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2006
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There's been a suggestion to present the data in a different format, so I'm going to try that with the third basemen. I'm also just reporting the mixed velocity/distance model here. People seem to like that model better. At some point, I'll redo the tables for the positions posted ealier. Here's the ranking of the third baseman based on difference in DER.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Joe Crede 3962 436 397.55 0.110 0.100 0.00971
Freddy Sanchez 2527 285 265.88 0.113 0.105 0.00757
Pedro Feliz 4278 420 391.93 0.098 0.092 0.00656
Brandon Inge 4278 506 479.75 0.118 0.112 0.00614
Adrian Beltre 4159 416 393.60 0.100 0.095 0.00539
Maicer E Izturis 2069 182 171.49 0.088 0.083 0.00508
Scott Rolen 3788 390 371.79 0.103 0.098 0.00481
Mike Lowell 3990 429 411.96 0.108 0.103 0.00427
Morgan Ensberg 2917 289 276.96 0.099 0.095 0.00413
Ryan W Zimmerman 4383 382 365.01 0.087 0.083 0.00388
Andy M Marte 1348 141 135.81 0.105 0.101 0.00385
Corey Koskie 1847 189 182.02 0.102 0.099 0.00378
David Bell 3716 347 334.10 0.093 0.090 0.00347
Willy Aybar 1388 106 102.60 0.076 0.074 0.00245
Eric Chavez 3607 362 353.27 0.100 0.098 0.00242
Nick Punto 2256 217 212.22 0.096 0.094 0.00212
Miguel Cabrera 4010 349 342.51 0.087 0.085 0.00162
Vinny Castilla 1755 161 158.59 0.092 0.090 0.00138
Chad A Tracy 3930 339 337.78 0.086 0.086 0.00031
Hank Blalock 3374 293 292.07 0.087 0.087 0.00027
Melvin Mora 4109 372 372.59 0.091 0.091 -0.00014
David A Wright 4041 356 359.00 0.088 0.089 -0.00074
Troy Glaus 3586 324 326.88 0.090 0.091 -0.00080
Aramis Ramirez 3934 333 336.63 0.085 0.086 -0.00092
Chipper Jones 2811 247 250.06 0.088 0.089 -0.00109
Mark T Teahen 2954 286 289.22 0.097 0.098 -0.00109
Abraham O Nunez 1876 182 184.40 0.097 0.098 -0.00128
B.J. Upton 1326 114 115.79 0.086 0.087 -0.00135
Mark DeRosa 1098 97 99.17 0.088 0.090 -0.00197
Alex Rodriguez 3968 330 338.71 0.083 0.085 -0.00219
Wilson Betemit 1831 142 146.67 0.078 0.080 -0.00255
Garrett Atkins 4385 358 375.87 0.082 0.086 -0.00408
Edwin Encarnacion 2908 252 265.44 0.087 0.091 -0.00462
Aubrey Huff 2133 193 203.79 0.090 0.096 -0.00506
Aaron Boone 2748 221 235.26 0.080 0.086 -0.00519
Tony Batista 1354 114 124.03 0.084 0.092 -0.00741
Rich Aurilia 1109 101 112.09 0.091 0.101 -0.01000

As you can see, Joe Crede earned that gold glove. Now here's the same list using just outs, and sorted by 100*Actual Outs/Predicted Outs.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls. Sorted by Out Ratio.
Player InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs Out Difference Out Ratio
Joe Crede 3962 436 397.55 38.45 109.67
Freddy Sanchez 2527 285 265.88 19.12 107.19
Pedro Feliz 4278 420 391.93 28.07 107.16
Maicer E Izturis 2069 182 171.49 10.51 106.13
Adrian Beltre 4159 416 393.60 22.40 105.69
Brandon Inge 4278 506 479.75 26.25 105.47
Scott Rolen 3788 390 371.79 18.21 104.90
Ryan W Zimmerman 4383 382 365.01 16.99 104.65
Morgan Ensberg 2917 289 276.96 12.04 104.35
Mike Lowell 3990 429 411.96 17.04 104.14
David Bell 3716 347 334.10 12.90 103.86
Corey Koskie 1847 189 182.02 6.98 103.84
Andy M Marte 1348 141 135.81 5.19 103.82
Willy Aybar 1388 106 102.60 3.40 103.32
Eric Chavez 3607 362 353.27 8.73 102.47
Nick Punto 2256 217 212.22 4.78 102.25
Miguel Cabrera 4010 349 342.51 6.49 101.89
Vinny Castilla 1755 161 158.59 2.41 101.52
Chad A Tracy 3930 339 337.78 1.22 100.36
Hank Blalock 3374 293 292.07 0.93 100.32
Melvin Mora 4109 372 372.59 -0.59 99.84
David A Wright 4041 356 359.00 -3.00 99.17
Troy Glaus 3586 324 326.88 -2.88 99.12
Aramis Ramirez 3934 333 336.63 -3.63 98.92
Mark T Teahen 2954 286 289.22 -3.22 98.89
Chipper Jones 2811 247 250.06 -3.06 98.78
Abraham O Nunez 1876 182 184.40 -2.40 98.70
B.J. Upton 1326 114 115.79 -1.79 98.46
Mark DeRosa 1098 97 99.17 -2.17 97.82
Alex Rodriguez 3968 330 338.71 -8.71 97.43
Wilson Betemit 1831 142 146.67 -4.67 96.82
Garrett Atkins 4385 358 375.87 -17.87 95.25
Edwin Encarnacion 2908 252 265.44 -13.44 94.94
Aubrey Huff 2133 193 203.79 -10.79 94.71
Aaron Boone 2748 221 235.26 -14.26 93.94
Tony Batista 1354 114 124.03 -10.03 91.91
Rich Aurilia 1109 101 112.09 -11.09 90.11

As you can see, the order is almost exactly the same. From this chart, the Indians should be happier with Marte at third than Boone. And Alex Rodriguez must have made up for all those errors someplace else, since he's only down 8 outs. Freddy Sanchez did it all, winning a batting title and playing a great third base. The Joe Randa injury was the best thing to happen to Pittsburgh last year.

Please let me know which presentation you like better in the comments.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:16 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Hamm and Eggs
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Nomar Garicaparra is going to be the father of twins:

Soccer legend Mia Hamm her husband of three years, Los Angeles Dodger first baseman Nomar Garciaparra, are expecting twins, Time reports.

I assume one will play forward and the other shortstop. :-) Congratulations!

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Angels with Different Wings
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Viva el Birdos reports on the Cardinals signings, including Adam Kennedy. With former Angels Eckstein, Kennedy and Edmonds in the lineup (and Angles brother Yadier Molina behind the plate), can it be that long before Chone Figgins and Garret Anderson are in camp?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Hudson's Defense
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There's been some talk in the comments on the second basemen that Orlando Hudson is a pop up hog and that's why he does so well in PMR. The best way I know to examine this is by charting the player's DER by vector against the expected DER. The yellow line is the difference; above 0 the player is doing a better job than expected. Below 0, a worse job than expected. Here's Hudson on ground balls. All data is for 2006, and I'm using the mixed velocity/distance-smoothed visitor model.

HudsonGround.gif

The vector numbers go up as you approach first base. Second base should be at vector 54, first base at 63. As you can see, Hudson does a better job moving to his left than to his right. Is there any evidence he sets up more toward first base than second?

Here's Hudson on fly balls.

HudsonFly.gif

As you can see, he does get more balls on the first base vector than most second basemen, but it's also an easier play for the second baseman if the ball is behind the bag.

Here's line drives. These are always a big random.

HudsonLine.gif

He had a number of line drives hit right at him this year, and that helped his actual DER.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:29 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Catching Again
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Greg Zaun is back with the Blue Jays:

Gregg Zaun remained with the Toronto Blue Jays, agreeing Tuesday to a $7.25 million, two-year contract after the team's apparent agreement with Rod Barajas fell through.

...

Ricciardi said late Monday that the deal with Barajas was not going ahead. Ricciardi declined to comment about why the contract with Barajas wasn't completed.

Zaun is old, but he's posted very good OBAs for a catcher in his three years with Toronto. Considering what players with lower career OBAs are getting, this is a pretty good deal. I wonder what happened to Barajas? He didn't fail the physical because he never showed up to take it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:48 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Seven vs. Eight Figures
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The difference between getting seven and eight figures a year for pitchers appears to be whether you were injured in 2006.

Free agent pitcher Adam Eaton has reached preliminary agreement on a three-year contract with the Philadelphia Phillies worth more than $24 million, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The contract includes a mutual option for a fourth year that could bring the overall package to more than $33 million, the source said. The agreement is contingent on Eaton passing a physical exam, and is expected to be announced by the club later this week.

In his seven seasons as a starter, Eaton only qualified for the ERA title twice. His weakness is the long ball, something that may be exacerbated by the Phillies home park. This seems like a lot of money for an iffy pitcher. I like the Dodgers deal for Wolf a lot better, since they're not committed long term if he doesn't work out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ticket Giveaway
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FishStripes discusses the paradox of the Marlins. A team with terrible attendance earns very high TV ratings. From TCPalm:

He is as much the face of the Florida Marlins as anyone in a uniform. Next to Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, he's probably the team's most recognizable figure.

---

He's a broadcaster.

"Don't get me wrong: It's flattering to have so many people know who you are," Tommy Hutton was saying late Monday afternoon

Baseball resisted radio and TV broadcasts of games for a long time, believing it would cut down on attendance. What they failed to realize is that TV and radio helped create a whole new set of fans. In Florida, people would rather watch than travel. (Given the number of commercials during the Devil Rays games, I assume they have a big audience, too.) The fan base is there. If a retractable roof stadium is the answer to the problem, why don't the Marlins just build one themselves? With their low team salary, revenue sharing, and a good TV contract the Marlins should be able to secure a loan to build a stadium. Then instead of looking for funding, they just get to pick the best site.

And until then, maybe they should slash ticket prices. You would think that there's some price point at which people are willing to sit through rain delays. And if enough of those people buy $5 beers and $4 hot dogs, you probably make up the difference. See what happens if you sell box seats for $5 a pop. Again, with the low payroll of the team, they likely can get away with that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Stadiums | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Why the Rise?
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Sabernomics presents four hypotheses for the rise in yearly salaries to this free agent class. Truthfully, I'm not happy with any of them. Inflation usually happens when there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. The teams are making more money, and this free agent class is thin. Over the past few seasons, there were lots of good free agents available. You could tell Vlad Guerrero that Miguel Tejada was an alternative. There just aren't many alternatives this season at the high end.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM | Free Agents • | Free Agents | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
November 27, 2006
Poll Results
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The AP polled Hall of Fame voters. If their sample is representative, McGwire won't be elected but will stay on the ballot.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:35 PM | All-Time Greats | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
One Day at a Time
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The Day by Day Database is working again. Thanks to the staff at Hosting Matters for resolving the problem.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wolf in the Fold
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I guess it takes Tommy John surgery to get a one year deal this off season:

Free agent lefthander Randy Wolf has agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, SI.com has learned.

I'm sure Wolf wants to prove himself, and if he does, he'll have a huge payday in 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
What is a Player Worth?
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U.S.S. Mariner compares Danys Baez and Julio Mateo to demonstrate that free agent contracts are out of whack. However, Dave is comparing apples and oranges. Mateo is making only $1 million because he's controlled by the club. He's not a free agent. During the six seasons a team controls a player, salaries are almost always determined by two factors:

  1. How many years service the player accumulated.
  2. How good is the player compared to players with that many years service.

If Mateo went into arbitration and compared himself to Baez, he'd lose his case. It's not an apt comparison because Danys' contract is determined by the market. If Mateo were to become a free agent tomorrow, you can bet he'd get a lot more than $1 million.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:38 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Technical Bleg
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Ever since a disk crash last week, the Day by Day Database is not working. The problem is that when my Python scripts run, they can import the module MySQLdb. However, if I run interactively from the interpreter, I can import the module just fine. There is some difference in importing the module when I'm running a cgi-script vs. python nameofprogram.

It's running on a linux server (Apache) and the python version is 2.4.3. I'm stumped and the service provider is stumped. Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:12 PM | Blogs | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Finding Protection
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff makes an argument for finding someone to protect Ryan Howard in the lineup. Is it really possible to find such a player? Think about it, how many players are out there that you would say, "We better pitch to Howard, because X is coming up." Albert Pujols? Manny Ramirez?

It seems to me that a some point a player is so good that no one can protect him. Just look at Ruth and Gehrig. Do you really think, given the choice, that most pitchers would take Gehrig over Ruth? We don't have intentional walk numbers from that era, but Gehrig's 23 grand slams point in the direction of Ruth getting walks a lot in front of Lou.

My opinion is the best protection for a hitter is a man on first. Teams are not likely to walk a batter to move a runner into scoring position. In other words, Chase Utley's OBA is the best protection Ryan gets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Strategy | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Cranky Old Man
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Frank Robinson contributes his two cents to the Mark McGwire for Hall of Fame debate:

"Should I vote for Mark McGwire?" a visiting writer asked Robinson after the Moeller card show Friday night.

The 71-year-old Baseball Hall of Famer shook his head and firmly said, "No."

But it doesn't stop there. Robinson wants records stricken. He's probably afraid of falling out of the top ten in career home runs:

A woman standing nearby chimed in: "Once it's proven they were on steroids, their records should be stricken."

"I've heard you agree with that," the writer said to Robinson.

"I do," Robinson said. "Why should baseball have to try to prove when (these sluggers) started using (steroids)? They used 'em, and they knew they were wrong."

But of course, they make a statistical error:

"Let's take Barry Bonds," Robinson said. "You don't get better as you get older."

Bonds won his last four - consecutive - of seven Most Valuable Player awards after he turned 37. In order, in those four seasons, Bonds hit 73, 46, 45 and 45 home runs. When Robinson was the same age, he hit 19, 30, 22 and nine homers , respectively, the usual decline as a slugger passes 35 years old.

Of course, Henry Aaron and Babe Ruth hit more than a quarter of their career home runs after age 35. Somehow, no one notices that.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | All-Time Greats | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Setup Signing
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The Orioles are close to bringing Danys Baez into the clubhouse:

The Orioles have struck out to this point in adding a slugger to the middle of their lineup, but they are having no such problems in overhauling their bullpen. According to club sources, the Orioles have agreed in principle to a three-year deal with Atlanta Braves free-agent reliever Danys Baez, who will join recent acquisition Jamie Walker as one of Chris Ray 's primary setup men.

Baez's deal hinges on the right-hander's passing a physical, which could happen as early as today. Though exact terms of the deal aren't known, it is believed the Orioles will pay between $5 million and $6 million per season for the 29-year-old pitcher, who has 111 saves in six big league seasons.

Baez has pitched well over his six-year career, usually posting an ERA below the league average. Last season, his walks dropped, but so did his strikeouts and his ERA went up.

The Orioles blew 21 saves last season, only converting 35 of 56 opportunities for saves. Since Ray blew just five chances, most of those blow saves came from middle relievers giving up the lead before the ninth. The Orioles have to hope Baez can be better in that area.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 AM | Free Agents | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 26, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen, 2006
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As with the left fielders, I'll present both the velocity model and the velocity/distance model. We'll start with the old velocity model:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Velocity for Fly Balls.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Tony Graffanino 1702 186 161.05 0.109 0.095 0.01466
Neifi Perez 1374 166 152.40 0.121 0.111 0.00990
Jamey Carroll 2806 396 372.04 0.141 0.133 0.00854
Joe S Inglett 1349 157 145.78 0.116 0.108 0.00832
Orlando Hudson 4128 552 522.65 0.134 0.127 0.00711
Aaron W Hill 2777 358 340.66 0.129 0.123 0.00625
Jose Valentin 2367 316 301.96 0.134 0.128 0.00593
Mark Ellis 3407 390 370.15 0.114 0.109 0.00583
Jose C Lopez 4045 473 451.94 0.117 0.112 0.00521
Placido Polanco 2838 373 359.11 0.131 0.127 0.00489
Luis Castillo 3663 416 401.24 0.114 0.110 0.00403
Chase Utley 4151 476 460.10 0.115 0.111 0.00383
Robinson Cano 3160 385 372.91 0.122 0.118 0.00383
Chris A Burke 1012 128 124.23 0.126 0.123 0.00373
Dan C Uggla 3935 485 473.20 0.123 0.120 0.00300
Tadahito Iguchi 3782 428 418.52 0.113 0.111 0.00251
Josh L Barfield 3755 442 435.89 0.118 0.116 0.00163
Jose Castillo 3832 387 381.40 0.101 0.100 0.00146
Brandon Phillips 3791 404 399.50 0.107 0.105 0.00119
Marcus Giles 3589 412 413.47 0.115 0.115 -0.00041
Mark Grudzielanek 3595 367 370.61 0.102 0.103 -0.00100
Mark Loretta 3578 401 410.00 0.112 0.115 -0.00251
Brian Roberts 3634 398 407.17 0.110 0.112 -0.00252
Ray Durham 3525 393 402.11 0.111 0.114 -0.00258
Adam Kennedy 3386 406 415.75 0.120 0.123 -0.00288
Ian M Kinsler 3288 424 433.63 0.129 0.132 -0.00293
Aaron Miles 2016 238 245.21 0.118 0.122 -0.00358
Ronnie Belliard 3860 448 464.43 0.116 0.120 -0.00426
Jeff Kent 2811 325 338.95 0.116 0.121 -0.00496
Craig Biggio 3162 360 376.73 0.114 0.119 -0.00529
Hector Luna 1487 151 159.76 0.102 0.107 -0.00589
Rickie Weeks 2402 263 278.24 0.109 0.116 -0.00634
Kaz Matsui 1403 169 178.92 0.120 0.128 -0.00707
Jose Vidro 2905 305 327.93 0.105 0.113 -0.00789
Jorge L Cantu 2859 283 311.98 0.099 0.109 -0.01014
Ty Wigginton 1075 105 117.30 0.098 0.109 -0.01144
Todd Walker 1279 128 147.72 0.100 0.115 -0.01542

And here's the mixed velocity/distance model:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Tony Graffanino 1702 186 165.06 0.109 0.097 0.01230
Jamey Carroll 2806 396 370.20 0.141 0.132 0.00920
Aaron W Hill 2777 358 334.22 0.129 0.120 0.00856
Orlando Hudson 4128 552 520.38 0.134 0.126 0.00766
Jose Valentin 2367 316 301.32 0.134 0.127 0.00620
Mark Grudzielanek 3595 367 344.87 0.102 0.096 0.00616
Chase Utley 4151 476 451.34 0.115 0.109 0.00594
Joe S Inglett 1349 157 151.57 0.116 0.112 0.00403
Mark Ellis 3407 390 376.45 0.114 0.110 0.00398
Neifi Perez 1374 166 160.56 0.121 0.117 0.00396
Jose C Lopez 4045 473 457.26 0.117 0.113 0.00389
Robinson Cano 3160 385 373.02 0.122 0.118 0.00379
Luis Castillo 3663 416 403.31 0.114 0.110 0.00346
Placido Polanco 2838 373 363.35 0.131 0.128 0.00340
Chris A Burke 1012 128 125.30 0.126 0.124 0.00267
Brandon Phillips 3791 404 397.11 0.107 0.105 0.00182
Jose Castillo 3832 387 384.20 0.101 0.100 0.00073
Tadahito Iguchi 3782 428 425.35 0.113 0.112 0.00070
Dan C Uggla 3935 485 482.86 0.123 0.123 0.00054
Brian Roberts 3634 398 396.92 0.110 0.109 0.00030
Josh L Barfield 3755 442 441.53 0.118 0.118 0.00013
Ian M Kinsler 3288 424 426.80 0.129 0.130 -0.00085
Adam Kennedy 3386 406 409.98 0.120 0.121 -0.00118
Marcus Giles 3589 412 417.71 0.115 0.116 -0.00159
Ray Durham 3525 393 401.46 0.111 0.114 -0.00240
Craig Biggio 3162 360 369.43 0.114 0.117 -0.00298
Jeff Kent 2811 325 335.51 0.116 0.119 -0.00374
Mark Loretta 3578 401 415.16 0.112 0.116 -0.00396
Aaron Miles 2016 238 246.01 0.118 0.122 -0.00397
Hector Luna 1487 151 157.64 0.102 0.106 -0.00447
Rickie Weeks 2402 263 275.27 0.109 0.115 -0.00511
Ronnie Belliard 3860 448 472.37 0.116 0.122 -0.00631
Kaz Matsui 1403 169 179.09 0.120 0.128 -0.00719
Jose Vidro 2905 305 327.48 0.105 0.113 -0.00774
Jorge L Cantu 2859 283 307.27 0.099 0.107 -0.00849
Ty Wigginton 1075 105 116.62 0.098 0.108 -0.01081
Todd Walker 1279 128 144.79 0.100 0.113 -0.01313

I'm starting to like the mixed model more. Grudzielanek does better in the second chart. He won the gold glove and did very well in John Dewan's +/- system. Both system agree on the bottom five. Among the second basemen who play every day, Orlando Hudson comes out on top in both systems. I believe he came out near the top last year as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:50 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Drawing Drew
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Sports Illustrated reports the Red Sox are are on the verge of signing J.D. Drew.

Drew became an instant hit on the free-agent market after stirring controversy in Los Angeles by opting out of the $33 million and three years remaining on his Dodgers deal, as his unusual contract allowed. The Rangers, Indians, Orioles, Giants and Padres were among teams who expressed an interest in signing Drew, but several major league executives who were bidding on Drew said Saturday he is ticketed to Boston. A deal could be announced within a week.

It wasn't immediately known how much Boston will pay Drew, but it is presumed by the executives who lost out for Drew to be well in excess of the money he left in Los Angeles. Drew is beloved by statistical aficionados who cite his consistently high on-base and slugging percentages (he has a career .393 on-base percentage and .512 slugging percentage). However, he has come under fire for being injury prone; his 146 games in 2006 was a career high and he's averaged 118 games played over his eight full seasons.

I wonder how intangible aficionados feel about J.D? They probably can't put their finger on it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 AM | Free Agents | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Reardon's Struggles
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Stan Grossfeld of the Boston Globe catches up with Jeff Reardon. The pitcher is still fighting depression over the death of his son.

There's Reardon and Shane riding in the Twins World Series parade in Minneapolis.

"He loved to go in the clubhouse, and Kirby Puckett and Bert Blyleven loved him," Reardon remembers. "Carl Pohlad, the owner of the Twins, used to have a table of candy -- it was like trick or treat every night. Bert used to pick up Shane and turn him upside-down and shake him and all the candy would come out. Shane had the look to him, that smile and all.

"All of this really meant so much to me, and now to me it doesn't really mean anything at all."

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Hall Debate Starts
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The St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that at least one writer won't be voting for Mark McGwire on the Hall of Fame ballot:

Back in 2005, during the weekend Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg were enshrined, three Hall of Famers on different occasions approached baseball writer Bill Madden with a request:

Protect the Hall.

"They said to me, basically in the same manner, 'It's up to you guys, it's up to you guys to uphold the integrity of this place,'" said Madden, the baseball columnist for the New York Daily News. "They said, 'Only you guys can do that.' I consider that a serious obligation."

Madden's later says he's leaving McGwire off his ballot. My question is, how many of the 575 voters will follow suit? Mark needs 29 votes to stay on the ballot, and I wonder if he'll get those. It going to be an interesting month as columnist debate this topic in preparation for the vote.

Update: There's more of a debate in this piece, in which Claire Smith asks a number of sports writers their opinion. Who knows if this is a representative sample, but from reading this, I'm guessing Mark will stay on the ballot but not get elected, pushing the vote off until another time.

What's interesting is that many of the writers are finding a statistical reason not to vote for McGwire, many invoking his low hit total to keep him out of the hall. While his .263 BA is low for the hall, his .394 OBA is not. My guess is, if McGwire didn't have the steroid taint, the writers would not be looking at his hit total.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | All-Time Greats | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 25, 2006
Trading for the Future
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The Diamondbacks and Brewers completed a six player deal today. And while the deal is billed as Estra for Doug Davis, the pitcher I bet Arizona is most interested in is Dana Eveland. His minor league numbers are terrific, and he'll be just 23 in 2007. The Brewers get three veterans in the deal, but I'm not sure how much they really help the club.

Update: Brew Crew Ball likes the deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:10 PM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Woody Joins the Land of Buzz
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The Astros, in addition to signing Carlos Lee, also inked Woody Williams to a two-year deal. Woody's ERA last year was greatly a function of not allowing a lot of hits at PETCO. His strength is control, walking just 35 batters in 145 innings. He's a perfectly good back of the rotation guy, but his seasonal age will be 40 in 2007, so you never know when someone that old is just going to fall apart.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM | Free Agents | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
AAA Giants?
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The Giants are striking out on all their attempts to sign free agents, leaving them a shell of a team:

The Giants' committed pursuit of Lee signaled the club's willingness to move on without Barry Bonds. Lee and Bonds are restricted to left field, and the Giants do not have the luxury of a designated hitter.

It was another setback in what has become an excruciating month for the Giants front office. Despite generous offers, they have failed to sign outfielders Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr., and now Lee, who was the best hitter remaining on the free-agent market.

Those losses do not compare to Thursday's sudden passing of Pat Dobson, who was a close friend and chief adviser to Giants general manager Brian Sabean.

Despite Sabean's aggressive efforts, the Giants still have a virtually blank lineup card -- shortstop Omar Vizquel and outfielder Randy Winn are the only projected Opening Day starters -- along with other needs in the rotation and bullpen.

Maybe this will force the Giants to rebuild young. It could take some time, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Sane Signings
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6-4-2 Rounds up some signings that don't appear outrageous, including Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia and Rod Barajas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 24, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2006
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It seems every year I run the PMR for rightfielders I encounter the same problem, and it has to do with Ichiro Suzuki:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Velocity for Fly Balls.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Reggie Sanders 1942 170 150.73 0.088 0.078 0.00992
Carlos J Quentin 1156 96 85.83 0.083 0.074 0.00879
Casey Blake 2586 210 191.62 0.081 0.074 0.00711
Damon J Hollins 1440 134 124.64 0.093 0.087 0.00650
Mark DeRosa 1654 125 115.00 0.076 0.070 0.00605
Kevin Mench 1541 112 102.93 0.073 0.067 0.00588
Ryan Freel 1122 101 94.94 0.090 0.085 0.00540
Jose Guillen 1774 164 154.51 0.092 0.087 0.00535
Jay Gibbons 1107 97 91.66 0.088 0.083 0.00482
J.D. Drew 3472 284 267.61 0.082 0.077 0.00472
Alex I Rios 2862 218 205.27 0.076 0.072 0.00445
Juan Encarnacion 3085 219 208.81 0.071 0.068 0.00330
Vladimir Guerrero 3258 253 243.64 0.078 0.075 0.00287
Emil Brown 1349 110 106.51 0.082 0.079 0.00259
Jacque Jones 3476 275 266.55 0.079 0.077 0.00243
Austin Kearns 3928 346 337.89 0.088 0.086 0.00206
Moises Alou 2026 154 150.84 0.076 0.074 0.00156
Russell Branyan 1163 87 86.07 0.075 0.074 0.00080
Bobby Abreu 4047 293 292.60 0.072 0.072 0.00010
Trot Nixon 2700 212 211.95 0.079 0.079 0.00002
Joe Borchard 1060 84 84.06 0.079 0.079 -0.00006
Jeff B Francoeur 4434 317 317.93 0.071 0.072 -0.00021
Brad B Hawpe 3769 280 281.06 0.074 0.075 -0.00028
Jay Payton 1173 89 89.42 0.076 0.076 -0.00036
Ichiro Suzuki 3252 250 251.21 0.077 0.077 -0.00037
Shawn Green 3393 220 222.29 0.065 0.066 -0.00068
Jason Lane 2049 155 156.74 0.076 0.076 -0.00085
Randy Winn 1996 184 185.72 0.092 0.093 -0.00086
Milton Bradley 2518 191 194.41 0.076 0.077 -0.00136
Jermaine Dye 3915 305 310.61 0.078 0.079 -0.00143
Nick Markakis 2843 240 244.33 0.084 0.086 -0.00152
Geoff Jenkins 3333 247 254.04 0.074 0.076 -0.00211
Michael Cuddyer 3637 245 259.18 0.067 0.071 -0.00390
Jeromy Burnitz 1988 120 128.64 0.060 0.065 -0.00435
Bernie Williams 1347 98 104.01 0.073 0.077 -0.00446
Jeremy R Hermida 2003 157 166.44 0.078 0.083 -0.00471
Xavier Nady 2560 187 202.29 0.073 0.079 -0.00597
Magglio Ordonez 3893 258 281.26 0.066 0.072 -0.00598
Brian Giles 4169 298 332.48 0.071 0.080 -0.00827

That's right, Ichiro is very slightly negative (actually, I'd call him neutral). But people who watch him disagree with this finding. He ranks at the top in centerfield, indicating he can chase down balls.

My belief is that Ichiro plays deep in rightfield to take away the long hits. He's making a tradeoff between catching balls that might go as doubles, triples or home runs and giving up short singles that a fielder playing at normal depth levels would catch. When he goes to center, he plays more conservatively there since he's not used to the position, but in right he takes chances.

One suggestion over the time I've presented this data is to use the actual distance of balls rather than the velocity of the ball as a parameter for outfielders. I've always felt velocity was a pretty good proxy for distance, and it allowed me to have the same model for infielders and outfielders. But I thought of a way to incorporate the distance without changing the model. I simply divide the distance by 100, except on ground balls and low line drives. Basically, on balls that infielder have a chance to field, use velocity. On balls that are too high for them to field, use distance. Here's a table using a model that mixes the two.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Ryan Freel 1122 101 92.89 0.090 0.083 0.00723
Carlos J Quentin 1156 96 87.98 0.083 0.076 0.00694
Damon J Hollins 1440 134 125.21 0.093 0.087 0.00610
Jay Payton 1173 89 82.55 0.076 0.070 0.00550
Juan Encarnacion 3085 219 206.96 0.071 0.067 0.00390
Jose Guillen 1774 164 157.88 0.092 0.089 0.00345
Moises Alou 2026 154 147.83 0.076 0.073 0.00305
Reggie Sanders 1942 170 164.27 0.088 0.085 0.00295
Ichiro Suzuki 3252 250 241.19 0.077 0.074 0.00271
Mark DeRosa 1654 125 120.88 0.076 0.073 0.00249
Alex I Rios 2862 218 210.94 0.076 0.074 0.00247
Jacque Jones 3476 275 266.89 0.079 0.077 0.00233
J.D. Drew 3472 284 276.20 0.082 0.080 0.00225
Joe Borchard 1060 84 81.92 0.079 0.077 0.00196
Emil Brown 1349 110 108.41 0.082 0.080 0.00118
Randy Winn 1996 184 181.86 0.092 0.091 0.00107
Vladimir Guerrero 3258 253 249.59 0.078 0.077 0.00105
Austin Kearns 3928 346 342.73 0.088 0.087 0.00083
Casey Blake 2586 210 208.24 0.081 0.081 0.00068
Geoff Jenkins 3333 247 245.22 0.074 0.074 0.00054
Milton Bradley 2518 191 190.14 0.076 0.076 0.00034
Bobby Abreu 4047 293 292.75 0.072 0.072 0.00006
Jermaine Dye 3915 305 305.35 0.078 0.078 -0.00009
Nick Markakis 2843 240 240.60 0.084 0.085 -0.00021
Jeff B Francoeur 4434 317 318.59 0.071 0.072 -0.00036
Brad B Hawpe 3769 280 281.37 0.074 0.075 -0.00036
Trot Nixon 2700 212 214.27 0.079 0.079 -0.00084
Jason Lane 2049 155 157.68 0.076 0.077 -0.00131
Russell Branyan 1163 87 88.64 0.075 0.076 -0.00141
Jeremy R Hermida 2003 157 160.05 0.078 0.080 -0.00152
Michael Cuddyer 3637 245 251.88 0.067 0.069 -0.00189
Xavier Nady 2560 187 191.96 0.073 0.075 -0.00194
Shawn Green 3393 220 226.92 0.065 0.067 -0.00204
Magglio Ordonez 3893 258 268.74 0.066 0.069 -0.00276
Jay Gibbons 1107 97 100.99 0.088 0.091 -0.00361
Kevin Mench 1541 112 119.34 0.073 0.077 -0.00476
Brian Giles 4169 298 318.55 0.071 0.076 -0.00493
Bernie Williams 1347 98 104.84 0.073 0.078 -0.00508
Jeromy Burnitz 1988 120 137.33 0.060 0.069 -0.00872

As you can see, Ichiro moves up the rankings. I'd be curious to know what people think of each of these methods. Does one ranking strike you as more correct that the other?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Astrological-Lee
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The Astros made Carlos Lee the latest outfielder to earn a big payday:

Lee signed a six-year, $100 million deal with the Astros, the source told The Associated Press. Lee, a two-time All-Star left fielder who played with the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers last season, is coming off his fifth straight season with at least 30 home runs and 99 RBIs.

The Astros have scheduled an afternoon news conference. General manager Tim Purpura declined to comment.

Lee's pounded out at least 30 home runs and 30 doubles over the last four seasons. I'm surprised he didn't get as much as Soriano. Maybe it's a percieved lack of speed. Lee doesn't steal a lot of bases, but he rarely gets caught.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:55 PM | Free Agents | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)
Figgins for Crede?
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Steve Bisheff speculates on a trade of Chone Figgins for Joe Crede:

What the outstanding defensive outfielder - a basic singles and doubles hitter - doesn't fill, however, is the Angels' still-desperate need for a big-time power bat.

That means Stoneman must continue to search for one at either of the two corner infield positions. And because third base is where more of the current tradable power hitters reside, Figgins' future suddenly appears as shaky as his 2006 performance.

There have been persistent rumors of a possible Figgins trade to the White Sox for third baseman Joe Crede, whose 30 home runs and 94 RBIs would give the Angels the power guy they're looking for to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup.

Either way, Figgins is among the few marketable players the club would have to offer in a deal, especially after Stoneman made his intentions clear.

Both players are the same age, and both are good third basemen. Crede hits for power but doesn't get on base. Figgins gets on okay but doesn't hit for power. The White Sox have plenty of power, (Dye, Konkerko, Thome) but they could use a leadoff hitter. The Angles feel they need more power. Seems like a perfect fit. What do you think?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | Trades | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Pumping Wells
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Dave Perkins notes that one of the big beneficiaries of this off-season will be Vernon Wells.

A year ago, Wells' value seemed constrained by the seven-year, $119 million deal given Carlos Beltran by the Mets two years ago at age 26.

Now along comes Soriano, who is good but not in Wells' class and will be 31 on opening day. He gets an eight-year deal and who would you rather have, Soriano or Wells, who will be 28 next opening day and is a Gold Glove outfielder? It's not really close.

Matthews, who is 32, took a career average of .249 into this past season and parlayed that into five years and $50 million. Pierre, 29, is one of those waterbug-type outfielders, useful but nowhere near the five-tool man Wells is.

Every baseball contract reflects on every other contract and they all add up to one thing: Wells' price, already well beyond the stated means of the Blue Jays, keeps going out of sight. His time in Toronto is extremely limited and don't blame him. How could anyone not wish to take a kick at the financial can that's available?

I'm not sure I agree with this. Wells, for his career, owns a .336 OBA and a .492 slugging percentage. That's not exactly the best in the business. Considering he's played in a good hitter's park for his career, those number might even be worse than they look. Soriano has a lower OBA, but a higher slugging percentage. Wells' edge is in defense. That doesn't make closer to Beltran than Soriano. He should expect a payday in line with Alfonso's, but if there are a number of outfielders available next year, I suspect his salary will be at the lower end of the scale. After all, if you get to choose between Andruw Jones and Vernon Wells, I suspect Andruw will get the megabucks first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bats for Sale
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Are you interested in getting into the bat making business? A premier bat making operation is for sale.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 AM | Equipment | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Dobson Dies
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Pat Dobson passed away at age 64.

Dobson, one of four starters to win 20 games for the Orioles in 1971, died suddenly Wednesday night in the San Diego area, the San Francisco Giants said Thursday. He was 64.

Throwing big curveballs and telling hearty jokes, Dobson made many friends in baseball. This year, his ninth with the Giants, he was a special assistant to Sabean, the team's general manager.

The club didn't immediately release details about the cause of death. But USA Today reported on its Web site that Dobson's wife, Kathe, said he died one day after being diagnosed with leukemia.

The 1971 Orioles boasted one of the great rotations of all time. The four main pitchers started 142 games and won 81 of them, losing just 31. Their combined ERA was 2.89 over 1081 innings. Just to top it off, Baltimore won the division by so many games that they didn't make up four rainouts.

My thought go out to Dobson's family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 AM | Deaths | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 23, 2006
High-Lee Paid
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Carlos Lee appears to be headed for a big payday.

The Astros made an initial offer to Lee last week in excess of $12 million annually for no less than five years. They have since raised the offer into the five-year, $73 million range paid by the Chicago Cubs to retain third baseman Aramis Ramirez, according to a high-ranking National League official.

...

One official with a team competing with the Astros for Lee's services said he has been led to believe there is at least one $90 million offer on the table.

I assume Theo Epstein's phone is ringing off the hook with teams that are dying to pay Manny Ramirez's $20 million a year. A-Rod is even starting to look cheap right now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Free Agents | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Trade Teahen?
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The Daily Lancer makes the case for the Royals shopping Mark Teahen.

He finished with an 874 OPS--good for 2nd in the AL for third basemen and 8th for all third baseman. As we approach 2007, Teahen is being readied for the outfield because of Mr. Alex Gordon. Teahen's numbers actually translate well to the OF as his OPS would rank 6th out of all LFers and 5th out of all RFers. However with the lack of pitching the Royals have, it seems prudent that they should listen to offers for Teahen.

It's not a bad idea. The Royals have depth at that position. They also are desperately in need of pitching. Anyone acquiring Teahen would also control him for four seasons. It sounds like a pretty good deal could be made here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 AM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Happy Thanksgiving
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Once again, I'm thankful for all my readers who keep this site growing. You've allowed me to make a living from something I love. I hope each of you has a wonderful dinner and day with your family and friends!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Other | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 22, 2006
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | Podcasts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers Make the Juan Move
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The Los Angeles Dodgers completed the rumored deal for Juan Pierre:

Center fielder Juan Pierre and the Los Angeles Dodgers finalized a five-year contract worth about $45 million on Wednesday, giving the team additional speed at the top of the lineup.

All that speed really helps when you return to the bench after making an out.

"Juan's ability to hit combined with his speed make him a perfect catalyst for our lineup," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said in a statement. "His work ethic and character are second-to-none, and he knows what it takes to win. He's dedicated to the community and I truly believe the city of Los Angeles is going to love this player."

To once again pull out one of my favorite Bill James quotes:

I mean, I would never say that it was not important to have a team with a good attitude, but Christ, Sparky, there are millions of people in this country who have good attitudes, but there are only about 200 who can play a major-league brand of baseball, so which are you going to take?

Juan put together two very good years for Florida in 2003 and 2004. But since then, while hits remained high, his walks and OBA dropped. And that dropped him from a decent leadoff man to a poor one. He averaged 21 win shares in 2003-2004, 15 the last two seasons. He made over 500 outs in 2006. That made him responsible for over 18 games worth of outs. Is that what you really want at the top of the lineup? Even if he does have a good attitude?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:51 PM | Free Agents | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Pujols and Cabrera
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Just how smart do the Cardinals look right now? In February 2004 they sign Albert Pujols to a seven-year, $100 million dollar contract. Otherwise, he'd be a free agent right now. Can you imagine what kind of money Albert would command in this class? Ten years, $300 million?

And just how foolish were the Fish not to try to sign Miguel Cabrera to a long term deal? When he's a free agent at the end of 2009, how much money will he command? If the Marlins offered him a 10-year, $80 million dollar contract last winter, do you think he would have taken it? Do you then think in this market, the Marlins could trade him at any time for loads of prospects? With this market Miguel would be silly to sign anything longer than three years. And he won't be a Marlins in 2010 at the peak age of 27. He'll eclipse A-Rod's contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Management | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:22 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New Angel in the Outfield
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MLB Trade Rumors links to a piece on Fox that puts Gary Matthews Jr. in an Angels uniform for five years and $50 million. From Trade Rumors reaction:


Matthews has had one good season in his career. Of course, that was last year, and it was great, so he positioned himself well for the market. But the dude's 32, he'd never been much above average before, he put up his good offensive numbers in a major hitter's park, and he may not be that great of a center fielder. Having GMJ under contract for the next five years ensures that the Angels will have an overpaid corner outfielder even after Garret Anderson's contract runs out.

Sarge's career line is .263/.336/.419. According to ZiPS, Maicer Izturis is going to have a better season than that. (I know Izturis doesn't play center, just...eight figures for utility infielder offense?)

I've been a booster of Matthews for a long time. I always thought there was some underlying talent, the ability to get on base that was never allowed to develop. Last year he showed it, but he was 31 at the time and playing in a very good offensive park. I don't really expect that to last very long. There have been some players who played better in their 30s than their 20s, but those people usually turned 30 at the cusp of an offensive explosion (Paul O'Neill comes to mind). It seems to me the Angels had to one up the Dodgers on giving a lot of money to an iffy centerfielder. At least the better player got more money.

Are there a lot of other offers on the table for these players? Was someone else offering Matthews a four year deal at $40 million? Or a five year deal at $45 million?

It's an absolutely terrific year to be a free agent.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM | Free Agents | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Rounding Up Reaction
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SethSpeaks makes his case for Justin Morneau winning the MVP, and also rounds up contrary opinions, including yours truly. Meanwhile, Ryan at ProTrade.com voices his disdain for the choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:19 PM | Awards | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Back Up
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The host of this web log suffered a disk crash this morning. The site is back up now, sorry for any inconviences. If you made a comment after 3:30 AM EST on Wednesday, it was probably lost.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:28 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 21, 2006
Interview With Cowley
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Baseball Think Factory and a comment here link to a WFAN interview with Joe Cowley, the writer who voted Jeter sixth on his ballot. Cowley doesn't do a very good job defending his vote. Well worth a listen.

Correction: Fixed spelling of Cowley.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | Awards | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
Uribe Off the Hook
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Good news for Juan Uribe:

Dominican prosecutors say they've seen no proof that White Sox shortstop Juan Uribe had anything to do with the shooting of two men, and they will not pursue charges if no evidence is presented within 10 days.

Uribe, his brother and a friend were questioned and released following the Oct. 13 shooting that wounded a Dominican farmer and a captain in the Italian Navy in the coastal city of Juan Baron, about 40 miles southwest of Santo Domingo.
The farmer, Antonio Gonzalez Perez, said he was arguing with Uribe, a Dominican native, when the player pulled out a pistol and opened fire. The naval captain did not press charges. Uribe's lawyers said he was not in Juan Baron when the shooting occurred.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | Crime | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Analysis on Hold
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I'm waiting for this deal to be official before making a comment. It's one of those times you hope a source is wrong.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:13 PM | Free Agents | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Love Him Like a Rock
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The Colorado Rockies put Jeff Francis in the fold for at least four seasons:

The deal, which has a team option for the 2011 season, will pay Francis $13.25 million.

I like the deal. It's not a lot of money, the Rockies avoid arbitration in the future, and Jeff pitches well at Coors. For his career, his BA, OBA and Slug. allowed are better at home than on the road. Nice move by Colorado to lock up a pitcher who is successful at Coors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:59 PM | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2006
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With the MVP debate raging and the Cincinnati Reds signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop, it's a good time to look at how PMR rates the #6 fielders:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Adam Everett 3801 500 464.88 0.132 0.122 0.00924
Bill Hall 3311 404 375.73 0.122 0.113 0.00854
Craig Counsell 2274 310 290.98 0.136 0.128 0.00836
Yuniesky Betancourt 4225 501 474.18 0.119 0.112 0.00635
Jason A Bartlett 2570 348 333.97 0.135 0.130 0.00546
Julio Lugo 2103 253 241.59 0.120 0.115 0.00542
Ben T Zobrist 1395 173 165.55 0.124 0.119 0.00534
Khalil Greene 3007 352 335.93 0.117 0.112 0.00534
Clint Barmes 3411 404 386.61 0.118 0.113 0.00510
Juan Castro 1743 205 197.03 0.118 0.113 0.00457
Jhonny Peralta 4086 533 516.35 0.130 0.126 0.00408
Rafael Furcal 4257 538 525.08 0.126 0.123 0.00304
Omar Vizquel 3974 441 430.32 0.111 0.108 0.00269
Carlos Guillen 3808 465 455.45 0.122 0.120 0.00251
Jack Wilson 3485 454 447.27 0.130 0.128 0.00193
Juan Uribe 3553 429 424.28 0.121 0.119 0.00133
John McDonald 2024 237 235.34 0.117 0.116 0.00082
Bobby Crosby 2595 307 304.87 0.118 0.117 0.00082
Alex Gonzalez 2991 350 347.62 0.117 0.116 0.00080
David Eckstein 3222 385 383.63 0.119 0.119 0.00043
Orlando Cabrera 3903 433 432.08 0.111 0.111 0.00024
Edgar Renteria 3958 446 445.44 0.113 0.113 0.00014
Michael Young 4307 536 536.41 0.124 0.125 -0.00009
Jimmy Rollins 4206 499 500.05 0.119 0.119 -0.00025
Ronny Cedeno 3258 398 400.25 0.122 0.123 -0.00069
Hanley Ramirez 4016 466 470.25 0.116 0.117 -0.00106
Alex Cora 1338 163 164.76 0.122 0.123 -0.00131
Geoff Blum 1168 149 150.75 0.128 0.129 -0.00150
Royce Clayton 3338 400 405.01 0.120 0.121 -0.00150
Jose Reyes 3887 443 451.38 0.114 0.116 -0.00215
Angel Berroa 3670 412 420.32 0.112 0.115 -0.00227
Miguel Tejada 4027 465 477.25 0.115 0.119 -0.00304
Derek Jeter 4009 450 464.37 0.112 0.116 -0.00358
Stephen Drew 1475 161 170.45 0.109 0.116 -0.00640
Marco Scutaro 1773 207 218.44 0.117 0.123 -0.00645
Felipe Lopez 4245 438 469.73 0.103 0.111 -0.00747
Aaron W Hill 1273 140 152.71 0.110 0.120 -0.00999

It's pretty clear that Everett deserved the Gold Glove at shortstop this season. And as long as Tejada and Jeter keep hitting, they'll stay at shortstop.

I'm sure I'll get an earful from Boston fans about Alex Gonzalez's ranking. He's pretty neutral. I suppose after watching Renteria boot ground balls for a season, Alex looked like Ozzie Smith. Renteria also improved with his move to Atlanta, coming in fairly neutral as well. Gonzalez will be an improvement over both Lopez and Clayton in Cincinnati, but the Reds still need to find some offense.

And just to avoid an argument, if you look at just ground balls, Gonzalez does better, but not a lot better. He makes 8 more outs than expected on ground balls, so he's -6 on other types of balls in play. Everett still comes out on top.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Morneau Wins MVP
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Justin Morneau won the AL MVP. How uncreative. More later when I see the voting.

Update: CBSSportsline has some voting details. Jeter received more 1st + 2nd place votes, but also was listed as sixth by one writer. I agree with one of the comments that noted the anti-NY bias in the voting. As well as the Yankees have done over the last eleven years, they've picked up very few awards. Mauer finishes sixth. Clearly the voters don't know how to value a good catcher who can also hit.

Update: Ben Kabak sends a link to the complete voting. Mauer is all over the list. He's as high as 3rd and as low as 10th, getting votes at every position in between. Interestingly, there seem to be two consensuses about him. One group of nine had him around 3-4, another group of eight had him ranked 7-8. I count 23 votes for Joe, meaning five voters left him off the ballot entirely. Just amazing. Yogi Berra never would have won an MVP with this group.

There's an excellent comment thread underway here as well. Be sure to check them out. As for questionable players appearing on the ballot at all, that's what ranking players 1-10 is for. If you have a favorite, you can vote him low (or even high) and not have it effect the voting that much. I don't have a real problem with that. When I make out ballots like this, I often put someone I like that doesn't have much support just to give people something to talk about.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM | Awards | Comments (80) | TrackBack (0)
A Tie?
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I just saw a rumor that Jeter and Morneau are going to tie for the AL MVP.

Correction: It's Morneau, not Mauer. I guess it was wishful thinking on my part.

Update: If Mourneau does indeed win the MVP, I'm taking full credit. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM | Awards | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
AL MVP Day
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It's time for the last award of the year, the AL MVP. This should come down to a race among three players, Jeter, Mauer and Ortiz. That's the order in raw win shares, but the three are tied in win shares above bench. Each has positives and negatives.

Jeter's strength is that he plays almost every day. This year he played 14 more games than Mauer and three more than Ortiz. Even though his averages are lower, he's contributing more often. Jeter is also helped by playing in the second worst run environment in the AL. However, he is a poor shortstop. PMR estimates he cost the Yankees fourteen outs in the field in 2006.

Mauer gets on base at a tremendous rate and hits for power, all from the catching spot. But because he is a catcher, he missed 22 games last season as the Twins kept him rested. That probably helped Joe win the batting title, the first AL catcher to do so.

Ortiz is a great hitter, with a flair for late inning heroics. However, his game is one-dimensional, as he rarely contributes with the glove. Once again, Ortiz's bat isn't enough to overcome Jeter and Mauer's bat and glove, but it's real close, closer than last year with A-Rod.

I'd probably go Mauer, Jeter, Ortiz if I voted. Catchers are involved in so many aspects of the game besides hitting. Mauer, of all three seems to excel in all phases of the sport. The 22 games missed is a big deal, but with those fourteen fewer games, he's still right with Jeter in win shares. Mauer is the better player and deserves the award, although as with yesterday's NL trophy, any of the three would be a good choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Awards | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
Busy Mets
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The New York Mets signed Moises Alou to a one year contract with an option for 2008.

The 40-year-old slugger finalized an $8.5 million, one-year contract on Monday with the NL East champions, who also declined their $14 million option on left-hander Tom Glavine and swapped young pitchers with the Florida Marlins in a four-player trade.

Alou's deal includes a $7.5 million club option for 2008 with $1 million buyout. The six-time All-Star, who gets a $7.5 million salary next season, said he turned down two-year offers from other teams to join the Mets.

"The length of my contract doesn't really matter at this point in my career," Alou said. "I wanted to come here because this year -- I wanted to win this year."

This, of course, puts Lastings Milledge in limbo. Rather than spending a lot of time at AAA, I suspect Milledge will get time in the majors replacing Alou when he's down for a month with injuries. Alou is a good hitter, but at his age he can become a bad hitter pretty quickly. The Mets are filling a hole, they're not paying too much, and there's no long term commitment. If Alou can't play and Milledge matures, New York is out just $8 million or so. It might have been more cost effective to work on Lasting's attitude during the off-season and give him a chance to earn the job in 2007, but if he needs a full season at AAA, I can't really argue with the move.

The trade doesn't look like all that much. The two pitchers the Mets received walk a lot of batters. Florida looks like it's trying to improve its bullpen with more mature pitchers who haven't really broken into the majors yet. Owens struck out a lot of batters in the minor leagues, and at 27 can go straight into an major league pen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Free Agents • | Trades • | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 20, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen, 2006
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Here's how PMR ranks the first basemen:

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Kendry Morales 1338 124 110.53 0.093 0.083 0.01007
Albert Pujols 3864 306 267.43 0.079 0.069 0.00998
Lance Niekro 1313 98 85.07 0.075 0.065 0.00984
Dan R Johnson 2199 163 150.02 0.074 0.068 0.00590
John Mabry 1031 94 88.09 0.091 0.085 0.00574
Mark Sweeney 1227 99 92.32 0.081 0.075 0.00544
Derrek Lee 1104 85 80.13 0.077 0.073 0.00441
Lyle Overbay 3738 307 290.83 0.082 0.078 0.00433
Ben Broussard 2097 148 140.01 0.071 0.067 0.00381
Kevin E Youkilis 3123 233 221.36 0.075 0.071 0.00373
Andy A Phillips 1635 109 103.14 0.067 0.063 0.00358
Chris B Shelton 2737 179 169.62 0.065 0.062 0.00343
Nick Johnson 4014 319 305.76 0.079 0.076 0.00330
Adrian Gonzalez 4031 306 295.48 0.076 0.073 0.00261
Doug Mientkiewicz 2350 159 153.11 0.068 0.065 0.00251
Shea Hillenbrand 1858 141 136.44 0.076 0.073 0.00246
Scott Hatteberg 3415 220 212.94 0.064 0.062 0.00207
Howie Kendrick 1017 73 70.97 0.072 0.070 0.00200
Jeff Conine 1400 91 88.78 0.065 0.063 0.00158
Justin Morneau 4046 266 260.21 0.066 0.064 0.00143
Lance Berkman 2722 198 194.25 0.073 0.071 0.00138
Nomar Garciaparra 3199 194 189.86 0.061 0.059 0.00130
Rich Aurilia 1024 70 68.82 0.068 0.067 0.00115
Mark Teixeira 4436 310 305.13 0.070 0.069 0.00110
Nick T Swisher 2214 153 151.32 0.069 0.068 0.00076
Ryan N Shealy 1473 81 79.94 0.055 0.054 0.00072
Travis Lee 2794 218 216.62 0.078 0.078 0.00049
Prince G Fielder 3989 269 269.23 0.067 0.067 -0.00006
Mike Lamb 1488 98 98.33 0.066 0.066 -0.00022
Kevin Millar 2478 158 158.90 0.064 0.064 -0.00036
Adam LaRoche 3633 262 266.94 0.072 0.073 -0.00136
Paul Konerko 3679 215 220.18 0.058 0.060 -0.00141
Richie Sexson 4023 291 297.32 0.072 0.074 -0.00157
Carlos Delgado 3696 253 259.44 0.068 0.070 -0.00174
Todd Helton 4025 270 279.58 0.067 0.069 -0.00238
Ryan F Garko 1291 76 79.09 0.059 0.061 -0.00239
Craig A Wilson 1819 93 97.64 0.051 0.054 -0.00255
Wes Helms 1305 79 82.46 0.061 0.063 -0.00265
Ty Wigginton 1008 66 69.91 0.065 0.069 -0.00388
Robb Quinlan 1151 67 72.13 0.058 0.063 -0.00446
Ryan J Howard 4301 275 302.16 0.064 0.070 -0.00631
Mike Jacobs 2949 191 212.24 0.065 0.072 -0.00720
Conor S Jackson 3295 231 254.95 0.070 0.077 -0.00727
Sean Casey 2806 168 191.82 0.060 0.068 -0.00849
Jason Giambi 1467 71 88.40 0.048 0.060 -0.01186

Albert Pujols put together an amazing defensive season. He turned 40 more balls into outs than expected. Contrast that with Beltran, who converted 18 more balls into outs than expected. It's impressive when a good first baseman can beat a good centerfielder is turning balls into outs. The next closest regular was Overbay, who converted 26 more batted balls into outs than expected.

At the other end of the spectrum, to no one's surprise is Jason Giambi. But also down there is Ryan Howard, who picked up 27 fewer outs than expected. That's a huge difference in fielding ability, over two games worth of outs. It's another reason to vote for Pujols over Howard for MVP. I don't know if there are many surprises on this list, but Tiger fans can get into a nice argument over Sean Casey's offense vs. Chris Shelton's defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2006
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Let's take a look at how PMR rates the centerfielders this year:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Ichiro Suzuki 1017 114 106.04 0.112 0.104 0.00782
Ryan Freel 1211 127 119.69 0.105 0.099 0.00603
Shane Victorino 1691 161 151.18 0.095 0.089 0.00581
Carlos Beltran 3517 357 338.76 0.102 0.096 0.00519
Alfredo Amezaga 1580 155 146.95 0.098 0.093 0.00509
Coco Crisp 2814 246 232.39 0.087 0.083 0.00484
Corey Patterson 3360 345 329.33 0.103 0.098 0.00466
Joey R Gathright 3272 341 325.89 0.104 0.100 0.00462
Aaron Rowand 2742 251 238.64 0.092 0.087 0.00451
Johnny Damon 3378 306 294.10 0.091 0.087 0.00352
Rocco Baldelli 2368 228 219.80 0.096 0.093 0.00346
Randy Winn 1366 137 132.45 0.100 0.097 0.00333
Jim Edmonds 2471 223 215.35 0.090 0.087 0.00309
Brady Clark 2748 250 241.95 0.091 0.088 0.00293
Willy Taveras 3304 335 325.37 0.101 0.098 0.00292
Reggie D Abercrombie 1833 172 168.04 0.094 0.092 0.00216
Mike Cameron 3723 367 360.50 0.099 0.097 0.00174
Brian N Anderson 2996 305 300.58 0.102 0.100 0.00148
Steve Finley 3013 287 283.68 0.095 0.094 0.00110
Juan Pierre 4103 380 375.88 0.093 0.092 0.00101
Curtis Granderson 4014 385 381.35 0.096 0.095 0.00091
Vernon Wells 3918 332 330.00 0.085 0.084 0.00051
Eric Byrnes 3208 270 268.41 0.084 0.084 0.00050
Andruw Jones 4109 377 375.19 0.092 0.091 0.00044
Choo Freeman 1021 101 100.81 0.099 0.099 0.00018
Chris Duffy 2053 166 165.87 0.081 0.081 0.00006
So Taguchi 1095 90 89.97 0.082 0.082 0.00003
Marlon Byrd 1272 125 125.07 0.098 0.098 -0.00006
Gary Matthews Jr. 3909 333 334.90 0.085 0.086 -0.00049
Chone Figgins 2455 242 243.74 0.099 0.099 -0.00071
Torii Hunter 3715 343 347.24 0.092 0.093 -0.00114
Nate McLouth 1072 84 86.24 0.078 0.080 -0.00209
David DeJesus 1561 149 153.04 0.095 0.098 -0.00258
Mark Kotsay 3261 281 294.51 0.086 0.090 -0.00414
Cory Sullivan 2666 225 236.48 0.084 0.089 -0.00430
Grady Sizemore 4455 409 431.13 0.092 0.097 -0.00497
Ryan M Church 1172 122 128.48 0.104 0.110 -0.00553
Rob Mackowiak 1415 119 127.40 0.084 0.090 -0.00594
Kenny Lofton 2999 241 259.05 0.080 0.086 -0.00602
Jose A Bautista 1323 114 122.09 0.086 0.092 -0.00612
Jay Payton 1196 104 111.90 0.087 0.094 -0.00661
Ken Griffey Jr. 2753 229 256.68 0.083 0.093 -0.01006
Jeremy T Reed 1535 129 146.35 0.084 0.095 -0.01130

The first thing I notice is that Ken Griffey shouldn't be in centerfield any more. Kenny Lofton outlived his usefulness as well at the position. On the other hand, Crisp did provide the Red Sox with good defense in center, better than Johnny Damon. Damon, however, did improve the Yankees as Bernie Williams was a big negative there in 2005.

Somewhat surprising is the neutrallity of Gary Matthews Jr. He actually made two fewer outs than expected. It's the problem of the spectacular catch. That's what we remember, that's what we see on the highlight reels, so we assume he's a great fielder. Sometimes, however, to make those plays you need to play deep, and singles fall in front of you. Can any Texas fans comment on how deep Matthews plays?

The Phillies looked very good at the position with both Victorino and Rowand. And Ichiro did a great job subbing in center this season. And among the regulars, Beltran clearly deserved his gold glove.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Howard Wins MVP
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Howard won the trophy. I'll have more when I get home.

Update: I'm blown away by the lack of support for Carlos Beltran. He only garnered one second place vote and five third place votes. How you vote for another first baseman (Berkman) ahead of Beltran is beyond me.

As for Howard and Pujols, the consensus was that they were 1-2, and more voters put Howard one. It was a close vote, I just thought Beltran would get some #1 votes and more #2 votes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:08 PM | Awards | Comments (27) | TrackBack (0)
NL MVP Today
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The National League MVP announcement comes later today, and I expect Albert Pujols to take home the award. My vote originally would have gone to Carlos Beltran, however, based on the fact that he plays a much tougher defensive position. However, I looked at the PMR data today on the two players, and Albert fielded incredibly well at first this season, so well in fact that I believe it negates the defensive spectrum distance. I'll have more on this when I reach home later today. The two were almost even in win shares, with Pujols having more total win shares but Beltran doing better in win shares above bench.

For all the fans of Ryan Howard, there's two very interesting things at work here. The first is that Ryan played in a high run environment, which diminishes the value of his offense. Making up for that somewhat is the fact that Ryan played very well on the road. However, Pujols and Beltran both played in low run environments. That's why they are so far ahead in win shares. Their runs are valued more highly than Howard's.

However, if you look at the three batting on the road, Ryan emerges as the best hitter of the three. Beltran is close and a good centerfielder to boot. In other words, there are extremely good arguments for all three of these players. It will be interesting to see just how close the votes finishes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 AM | Awards | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Nomar Stays Put
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Nomar Garciaparra decided to stay with the Dodgers:

Garciaparra -- who grew up in nearby Whittier and graduated from St. John Bosco High in suburban Bellflower-- had said he was interested in staying with the Dodgers.

"I've loved every minute of it," he said last month.

Garciaparra became all the more attractive to the Dodgers after Drew opted out of the final three years of his contract earlier this month, making him eligible to become a free agent.

Nomar's OBA returned to his career level in 2006 after being below .367 for five seasons. A few more home runs and his slugging percentage would be up there, too. We'll find out later today what kind of money he's receiving.

By the way, nice additions at BaseballReference.com as they've added game logs and splits for players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Free Agents | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 19, 2006
Insanity?
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The Angles signed Justin Speier to a four year contract today.

The Angels, adding to one of the game's top bullpens, have agreed with Speier on a four-year, $18 million free-agent contract, FOXSports.com has learned.

The length of the contract, first reported by ESPN.com, is a surprise, considering that Speier, a right-hander, recently turned 33.

Speier is a good pitcher. He's 33, but he's only thrown 517 innings in his career. He strikes out batters, doesn't walk many, and doesn't give up many home runs. It's a new market, and 4 1/2 million a year doesn't seem like much.

Lookout Landing, however, think things are going insane:

This market is ridiculous. Run away, as fast as you can.

I disagree. Since the start of free agency, no stayed top salary for very long. Since the Manny and A-Rod contracts, however, the market took a pause. With the revenue stream on the rise again, salaries are on the rise again as well, as it should be. Yes, the years Soriano and Speier received are long for players their age. But I expect the yearly money to grow fast again, just like it did up until the A-Rod contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 PM | Free Agents | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders, 2006
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With Soriano looking like he's headed to the Cubs, I thought I'd start off the positions with left fielders.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only.
Player InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Brandon W Fahey 1164 101 91.44 0.087 0.079 0.00821
Matt Diaz 1798 163 150.04 0.091 0.083 0.00721
Reed Johnson 1915 129 116.43 0.067 0.061 0.00656
Melky Cabrera 3063 217 199.05 0.071 0.065 0.00586
So Taguchi 1141 87 81.23 0.076 0.071 0.00506
Dave Roberts 2887 239 226.53 0.083 0.078 0.00432
Emil Brown 2359 163 154.92 0.069 0.066 0.00342
Matt Murton 3026 240 229.83 0.079 0.076 0.00336
Ryan Langerhans 2240 156 148.71 0.070 0.066 0.00325
Juan Rivera 1440 126 122.50 0.087 0.085 0.00243
Andre E Ethier 2779 172 165.56 0.062 0.060 0.00232
David DeJesus 1736 138 134.02 0.079 0.077 0.00229
Frank Catalanotto 2308 140 135.18 0.061 0.059 0.00209
Cliff Floyd 2280 148 143.78 0.065 0.063 0.00185
Jason Michaels 3283 214 208.61 0.065 0.064 0.00164
Alfonso Soriano 4405 326 318.93 0.074 0.072 0.00161
Jason Bay 4269 316 309.87 0.074 0.073 0.00143
Marcus Thames 1193 70 68.93 0.059 0.058 0.00090
Garret Anderson 2377 192 190.14 0.081 0.080 0.00078
Kevin Mench 1217 80 79.09 0.066 0.065 0.00075
Barry Bonds 2708 188 187.05 0.069 0.069 0.00035
Jay Payton 1442 119 118.54 0.083 0.082 0.00032
Luke B Scott 1188 81 81.19 0.068 0.068 -0.00016
Brad Wilkerson 2106 139 139.49 0.066 0.066 -0.00023
Jeff Conine 1436 88 88.42 0.061 0.062 -0.00029
Luis Gonzalez 4063 256 257.40 0.063 0.063 -0.00035
Carl Crawford 4006 302 304.14 0.075 0.076 -0.00053
Josh D Willingham 3255 206 209.14 0.063 0.064 -0.00096
Nick T Swisher 2035 170 172.81 0.084 0.085 -0.00138
Craig Monroe 2909 168 172.45 0.058 0.059 -0.00153
Preston Wilson 2639 156 160.40 0.059 0.061 -0.00167
Matt T Holliday 4234 277 285.50 0.065 0.067 -0.00201
Adam Dunn 4132 279 287.54 0.068 0.070 -0.00207
Scott Podsednik 3417 245 255.60 0.072 0.075 -0.00310
Pat Burrell 2990 205 214.40 0.069 0.072 -0.00314
Raul Ibanez 4289 302 315.64 0.070 0.074 -0.00318
Carlos Lee 3883 227 243.70 0.058 0.063 -0.00430
Chris E Duncan 1015 66 71.63 0.065 0.071 -0.00554
Bobby Kielty 1030 80 88.63 0.078 0.086 -0.00838
Manny Ramirez 3151 175 201.96 0.056 0.064 -0.00856

As you can see, Melky Cabrera did a lot for the Yankees defense in 2006. I'd hope New York would try to find a spot for him defensively next season. I've heard talk of Torre wanting to play Melky everyday, and using the DH spot to rest the other three. That strikes me as a smart move.

Soriano did just fine in left. He wasn't outstanding, but he wasn't a joke, either. He actually picked up about 8 more outs than expected. He was probably better in left than he would have been at second. However, Matt Murton is better. There's some talk of playing Sorian in center.

One surprise to me is Barry Bonds. With his reconstructed knees, I expected Bonds to be at the bottom of the rankings. But he about as average as you'd like. The model predicted he'd turn 187 balls into outs, and he got to 188. This actually confirms what I saw last season. He moved surprising well in left field.

Much better than Manny Ramirez. I could see where the Red Sox might be better off defensively playing Ortiz at first, letting Manny DH and finding someone else to play left (move Crisp there, and sign Drew to play center?).

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Soriano to the Cubs
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ESPN.com posted a report that Alfonso Soriano signed with the Cubs for about $17 million a year for eight years. I'm not surprised at the $17 million, given the thin free agent market, but I'm shocked by the length of the contract. Yes, he hits for power, but the guy owns a .325 career OBA. Having a career walk year at age 30 just doesn't impress me that much. But the Cubs don't really seem to go for OBA guys, so they got someone who works for them.

What this does, of course, is make everyone in the future more expensive. It's going to be real easy for players who both get on base and hit for power to hold up Soriano as an example of why they deserve more money. The union has to be real happy about this contract.

To his credit, Alfonso did everything right. He expressed his displeasure with moving to left, but didn't dwell on the issue. Offensively, he played better than ever, upping his value. And he's taking advantage of a low supply of quality free agents. He's signed a Manny Ramirez like contract without being anywhere near as good as Manny.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Free Agents | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Explaining the Model
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Here's a video explanation of the Probabilistic Model of range for your enjoyment.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:22 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ripken on Howard
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Ryan Howard may win the NL MVP award tomorrow. If he does, he'll become the second person to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in consecutive seasons. The other was Cal Ripken:

Ripken more than anybody knows what Howard is going through.

The expectations on the field.

The sudden fame.

"The coolest thing in the world is that you had name recognition in the sport," Ripken said of those first two seasons. "All of a sudden, when somebody would mention your name they would know who you were. The second greatest thing was having face recognition outside of your uniform. You're walking down the street in New York and a truck driver would yell, 'Hey, Cal, we're going to kick your butt tonight.' I think that's cool. The only thing you have to really worry about is that you have to remember who you are. You're just a baseball player. You have to maintain perspective while some of these other things change around you, which are really cool. I think the biggest challenge for all of us is trying to maintain perspective and trying to maintain our own identity and who we are. Don't get caught up in the other stuff."


Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | Awards | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 18, 2006
Alternate MVPs
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Yard Work is running a series on the AL MVP. Just keep scrolling.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:59 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ground and Air Defense
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These tables are replacements for the ones found in this post. They use data just for the 2006 season (see explanation here). So let's look at how teams did fielding balls on the ground:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Ground Balls Only (ground balls and bunt grounders). Based on 2006 data only.
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Tigers 2115 1632 1582.78 0.772 0.748 0.02327
Cardinals 2204 1670 1622.68 0.758 0.736 0.02147
Astros 2100 1634 1595.39 0.778 0.760 0.01839
Twins 2004 1483 1449.98 0.740 0.724 0.01648
Royals 2083 1502 1469.91 0.721 0.706 0.01540
White Sox 2059 1508 1479.83 0.732 0.719 0.01368
Dodgers 2288 1671 1643.93 0.730 0.719 0.01183
Brewers 1958 1437 1416.97 0.734 0.724 0.01023
Mariners 2009 1492 1472.06 0.743 0.733 0.00992
Giants 1972 1490 1470.98 0.756 0.746 0.00964
Padres 1951 1492 1477.20 0.765 0.757 0.00759
Mets 2001 1519 1503.83 0.759 0.752 0.00758
Blue Jays 2123 1585 1570.90 0.747 0.740 0.00664
Rangers 2206 1622 1611.37 0.735 0.730 0.00482
Yankees 2046 1495 1486.00 0.731 0.726 0.00440
Angels 1922 1389 1380.87 0.723 0.718 0.00423
Rockies 2211 1675 1665.86 0.758 0.753 0.00413
Cubs 1879 1394 1386.91 0.742 0.738 0.00377
Athletics 2026 1494 1487.15 0.737 0.734 0.00338
Phillies 2085 1535 1528.07 0.736 0.733 0.00332
Diamondbacks 2223 1651 1644.98 0.743 0.740 0.00271
Red Sox 2062 1527 1526.09 0.741 0.740 0.00044
Braves 2152 1562 1572.09 0.726 0.731 -0.00469
Pirates 2187 1607 1620.88 0.735 0.741 -0.00635
Orioles 2020 1443 1459.35 0.714 0.722 -0.00809
Marlins 1984 1443 1459.41 0.727 0.736 -0.00827
Devil Rays 2045 1428 1446.97 0.698 0.708 -0.00928
Reds 2036 1473 1498.94 0.723 0.736 -0.01274
Indians 2160 1514 1555.64 0.701 0.720 -0.01928
Nationals 1974 1415 1458.48 0.717 0.739 -0.02202

Interesting that the two teams with the best infield defense made it to the World Series. The Royals did a great job of supporting their pitchers, which gives you an idea of just what a poor staff Kansas City sent to the mound. Somewhat shocking is that the Red Sox rank fairly low on this list, turning ground balls into outs as expected.

Here's the data for balls in the air, flys, liners and bunt pop ups.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Air Balls Only (Fly balls, line drives, and bunt pops). Based on 2006 data only.
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Cubs 2273 1509 1478.09 0.664 0.650 0.01360
Blue Jays 2203 1409 1380.54 0.640 0.627 0.01292
Yankees 2426 1608 1579.28 0.663 0.651 0.01184
Braves 2338 1516 1488.60 0.648 0.637 0.01172
Mets 2309 1509 1483.29 0.654 0.642 0.01113
Angels 2379 1581 1559.46 0.665 0.656 0.00905
Indians 2434 1585 1566.38 0.651 0.644 0.00765
Orioles 2415 1570 1552.45 0.650 0.643 0.00727
Giants 2450 1608 1591.32 0.656 0.650 0.00681
Nationals 2620 1758 1744.91 0.671 0.666 0.00499
Diamondbacks 2239 1398 1388.48 0.624 0.620 0.00425
Padres 2435 1624 1616.00 0.667 0.664 0.00328
Brewers 2342 1513 1505.78 0.646 0.643 0.00308
Phillies 2353 1486 1481.20 0.632 0.629 0.00204
Mariners 2422 1562 1557.41 0.645 0.643 0.00190
Cardinals 2244 1426 1422.54 0.635 0.634 0.00154
White Sox 2469 1630 1626.28 0.660 0.659 0.00151
Marlins 2355 1528 1525.93 0.649 0.648 0.00088
Dodgers 2248 1413 1413.75 0.629 0.629 -0.00033
Rangers 2336 1462 1464.32 0.626 0.627 -0.00099
Royals 2535 1618 1623.30 0.638 0.640 -0.00209
Tigers 2324 1480 1486.59 0.637 0.640 -0.00283
Reds 2491 1608 1615.54 0.646 0.649 -0.00303
Red Sox 2401 1501 1515.56 0.625 0.631 -0.00607
Devil Rays 2500 1620 1638.24 0.648 0.655 -0.00730
Twins 2324 1484 1502.31 0.639 0.646 -0.00788
Athletics 2504 1626 1646.41 0.649 0.658 -0.00815
Rockies 2379 1454 1474.13 0.611 0.620 -0.00846
Pirates 2261 1390 1413.40 0.615 0.625 -0.01035
Astros 2242 1405 1429.51 0.627 0.638 -0.01093

Given the Giants age and Barry Bonds' knees, I'm fairly amazed at how high San Francisco ranks on fly balls. It's also clear from the two tables that Yankees pitchers are better off with a ball in the air than on the ground. The Astros are probably the most extreme team on the two lists. They rank third in balls on the ground, dead last in fly balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 17, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006
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The other day I published the first of the Probabilistic Model of Range tables, looking at overall team play. However, since doing that I noticed something didn't add up. When I looked at individual fielders, I was getting very strange results. It turns out that Baseball Info Solutions made a change to the scoring system this year designed to improve the accuracy of locating balls in play. They increased the size of the graphic they use to capture the data.

This has the nice effect of allowing the reporter to be more precise in marking where the ball landed or was caught. However, the data is somewhat different than the data from previous years, and this was causing my models to exhibit strange behavior.

After spending a day studying the data, I've concluded that indeed, the 2006 data is more accurate. So in order to avoid the pitfalls of mixing the old and new data, I'm going to use just the 2006 data to figure PMR. At some point I may revisit the older data and try to find a way to translate it into this model. But for now, please ignore the previous post.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006. Model Includes Parks, Smoothed Visiting Team Fielding. Based on 2006 Season Only.
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Cardinals 4448 3096 3045.22 0.696 0.685 0.01142
Blue Jays 4326 2994 2951.45 0.692 0.682 0.00984
Tigers 4439 3112 3069.37 0.701 0.691 0.00960
Mets 4310 3028 2987.11 0.703 0.693 0.00949
Cubs 4152 2903 2865.00 0.699 0.690 0.00915
Yankees 4472 3103 3065.29 0.694 0.685 0.00843
Giants 4422 3098 3062.31 0.701 0.693 0.00807
White Sox 4528 3138 3106.11 0.693 0.686 0.00704
Angels 4301 2970 2940.33 0.691 0.684 0.00690
Brewers 4300 2950 2922.74 0.686 0.680 0.00634
Dodgers 4536 3084 3057.68 0.680 0.674 0.00580
Royals 4618 3120 3093.21 0.676 0.670 0.00580
Mariners 4431 3054 3029.47 0.689 0.684 0.00554
Padres 4386 3116 3093.20 0.710 0.705 0.00520
Braves 4490 3078 3060.69 0.686 0.682 0.00386
Diamondbacks 4462 3049 3033.47 0.683 0.680 0.00348
Twins 4328 2967 2952.29 0.686 0.682 0.00340
Astros 4342 3039 3024.90 0.700 0.697 0.00325
Phillies 4438 3021 3009.27 0.681 0.678 0.00264
Rangers 4542 3084 3075.69 0.679 0.677 0.00183
Orioles 4435 3013 3011.80 0.679 0.679 0.00027
Rockies 4590 3129 3139.99 0.682 0.684 -0.00239
Athletics 4530 3120 3133.56 0.689 0.692 -0.00299
Red Sox 4463 3028 3041.66 0.678 0.682 -0.00306
Marlins 4339 2971 2985.34 0.685 0.688 -0.00331
Indians 4594 3099 3122.02 0.675 0.680 -0.00501
Nationals 4594 3173 3203.39 0.691 0.697 -0.00662
Reds 4527 3081 3114.48 0.681 0.688 -0.00740
Devil Rays 4545 3048 3085.21 0.671 0.679 -0.00819
Pirates 4448 2997 3034.28 0.674 0.682 -0.00838

There are more changes at the top than at the bottom. The Cardinals rise to number one. The Royals drop to number 12. Still the Royals defense is better than many thought. Their predicted DER was the worst in the majors, meaning the pitching staff was not making it easy on the defense. The Dodgers also do much better under this system, going from a negative to a positive.

The Pirates replace the Nationals as the worst fielding team, with the Devil Rays in the penultimate slot. I guess Tampa can't do anything well, hit, pitch or field. More to come this weekend.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
At Least with Steroids Athletes Need to Exercise
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Via Instapundit, gene doping is on the way:

The ban on so-called "gene doping" or gene therapy by many athletic associations slows the rate of progress for the development of gene therapies that increase musculature. Eventually the athletic associations are going to split over this issue. New athletic associations will form that allow genetic engineering. Those associations and companies will put on competitions between the genetically enhanced that eclipse the competitions between natural humans.

Want big muscles without all the hard work? Genetic engineering of an enzyme is the ticket.

Dartmouth scientists have it working in mice. I suppose it won't be much longer until it's working in humans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:20 PM | Cheating | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
The Milano Factor
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MetsBlog corrects an article that explores the how Alyssa Milano helps a pitcher's performance. Actually, it's the other way around!

My daughter named our dog Phoebe after Milano's character in charmed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Frank Jay
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It's official, Frank Thomas is a Blue Jay.

The Toronto Blue Jays finalized a two-year, $18 million contract with veteran slugger Frank Thomas on Friday.

The Blue Jays reached a tentative deal with the 38-year-old designated hitter Wednesday night and spent Thursday wrapping up the details.

The contract includes a $10 million option for the 2009 season.

I find it fairly amazing that Frank Thomas never earned over $10 million in a season. He just never timed his contracts and injuries right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 PM | Free Agents | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Deconstructing Hudson
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There's an excellent analysis piece at Baseball Analysts on Tim Hudson's motion. Jeff Albert shows how Tim's balance changed since he left Oakland. What impressed me was how much his motion is the same; the differences are there, but they are very subtle. For me it was the end of the pitch where the difference was really obvious.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2006
Movin' On Up
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It won't be official until Friday, but Bob Geren appears to be the new manager of the Oakland Athletics:

A's closer Huston Street said he heard Thursday from Geren, who told the pitcher he got the job.

"I'm really excited," said Street, the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year. "He's already called me and we've spoken a little bit. I spent my first full year in the big leagues with him in the bullpen. He was the first professional coach I got a feel for and got to understand. What he brings is someone dedicated to the team and dedicated to his players. He's got a good feel for the team and that's a real positive for all of us."

Beane promoted Macha from the bench as well. I hope someone asks how much Geren is on board with the front office approach to managing the game? Maybe someone will ask at the news conference. Since Beane and Geren are such great friends, I wonder what it's going to be like when Billy needs to fire Bob someday? That would be rough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Share Inflation
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The St. Louis Cardinals players walked away with a nice pay day for winning the World Series:

St. Louis split $20.02 million for beating the Detroit Tigers. A full share of that was worth $362,173, the commissioner's office said Thursday. That was nearly $40,000 more than what White Sox players received last year.

Teams are allowed to divide the shares as they see fit. The Cardinals gave 48 full shares, 7.133 partial shares and 16 cash awards.

When the Cardinals won their previous title, in 1982, a full share was worth $43,280.

A full share for the Tigers was worth $291,668, more than $50,000 higher than the previous mark for a losing team. The 2000 New York Mets held that mark.

If you made the major league minimum in 2006, you nearly doubled your salary. Based on the two points of the Cardinals victories, winnings shares increased 8.9% annually over the period. Not super growth, but I believe it's well ahead of inflation during that period.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Frandsen Wins Stenson
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Giants second baseman Kevin Frandsen is this year's winner of the Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award from the Arizona Fall League.

"The six guys who were nominated, it was for a reason," said Frandsen, who was leading the league with a .418 batting average and .511 on-base percentage heading into Wednesday night's game. "Playing against all of these guys for the last six weeks, you understand what the qualities are. Knowing about Dernell and the two other winners before this one -- Mark (Teahen) and Andre (Ethier) -- you know the way they play the game. I'm very fortunate and very grateful for the opportunity to be nominated.

"To win, more than anything, it's a tribute to who Dernell was."

The Fall League instituted the Stenson Award in 2004 in memory of former AFL player Dernell Stenson, who was killed in 2003 in Arizona during the AFL season. He played for the Grand Canyon Rafters in 1998 and was playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions at the time of his death.

A donation in Frandsen's name will be made to a charity of his choice. Funds for the donation were provided by MLB.com's auction of an Alfonso Soriano autographed photo. Soriano played in the AFL in 1998 and was elected this year to the league's Hall of Fame.

This is a fine way to honor a player who met an untimely and vicious death. Congratulations to Kevin Frandsen. The previous winners seemed to do well in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:51 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Santana Leaves No Doubt
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Johan Santana wins his second Cy Young award, and for the second time it's unanimous.

Sandy Koufax of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the only pitcher to win a Cy Young award three times unanimously, and he did it when it was given to only one pitcher in both leagues.

I suspect as long as he's healthy, Santana is going to compete for the award for many more years.

The surprise for me is Wang beating out Halladay for second place. The voting is here. I find it fascinating. Wang pulled down more second place votes than Halladay, but Halladay appears on more ballots. I get the feeling that there's a group of writers who still put a premium on wins, and a group that puts a premium on what the pitcher accomplishes. Those two pretty even, with the wins group still dominating a bit. I suspect that will disappear in a few more years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | Awards | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Santana's Cy
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The American League presents its Cy Young Award today, and Johan Santana would appear to be a certainty. SB Nation (which predicted every award so far), made Johan a unanimous choice. The Baroque Rocker led the majors in ERA by two tenths of a run. He struck out more than a batter an inning (best in the AL) while keeping his walks per 9 innings below 2.0. Not only was he good, but he worked a lot, tying for the AL lead in games started and leading the league in innings pitched. He's an easy choice for #1.

The interesting race is for #3. Roy Halladay was the consensus #2 pick, but I wonder if Wang will really finish third. Chien-Ming posted the same record as Johan. His great strength was keeping the ball in the park. He led the majors in fewest home runs per nine innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Field Hockey Semis
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The Longmeadow High School played a great first half, but the Notre Dame women dominated the second half and took the game 3-1. It was the first loss for Longmeadow this year. Here's video of the game, featuring my daughters two friends Ally Fox (#1) and Taylor Hedges (#3).

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM | Other | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 15, 2006
Rays Look East
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The Tampa Bay Devil Rays won the right to negotiate with Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura for a mere $4.5 million.

"One of the things we like about him is his position flexibility," Friedman said, adding that subsequent moves the Devil Rays make in free agency or via trades would impact what role Iwamura would fill.

The 27-year-old Iwamura was a five-time All-Star in eight seasons with the Yakult Swallows. A left-handed hitter, he batted .311 with 32 homers and 77 RBI in a career-high 145 games last season.

The Devil Rays have been interested in Iwamura since watching him in the World Baseball Classic last spring. In six games, he hit .389 and helped Japan win the inaugural WBC championship.

Kwamura's career OBA is .366, but he's been over .380 in four of the last five seasons. I'd guess his OBA would be about .340 in the majors, which for the Rays is pretty good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | International | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
A's to Jays
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Sports Illustrated is reporting that Frank Thomas is about to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays are closing in a deal with free agent Frank Thomas for $23 million over two years, SI.com has learned.

Thomas hit 39 home runs and had 114 RBIs in a major comeback season in 2006, leading the Oakland A's into the American League Championship Series after signing with them for only $500,000 guaranteed plus $3 million in incentives.

The Blue Jays designated hitters hit for average and power, but didn't do a great job of getting on base. Thomas should improve both OBA and slugging at the position.

It looks like the Athletics might replace Frank with Barry Bonds, keeping Barry at home in the Bay Area.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 PM | Free Agents | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)
Over-Reaction
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The police took away the Longmeadow defense sign.

Update: Longmeadow leads ND 1-0 in the first half.

Update: Terrific save by the Longmeadow goalie on a penaltyshot to keep a one goal lead.

It's halftime with Longmeadow leading ND 1-0.

Update: ND ties the game at one with 19 minutes left.

Update: With11 minutes left ND takes a 2-1 lead.

Update: ND goes up 3-1 with six minutes to go.

Update: ND wins 3-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:09 PM | Other • | Other | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
In the Air and On the Ground
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Update: Please ignore this post. See here.

To follow up on yesterday's team probabilistic model of range post, I wanted to see how teams did with balls on the ground and balls in the air. We'll start with the ground balls.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Ground Balls Only (ground balls and bunt grounders)
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Astros 2100 1634 1565.36 0.778 0.745 0.03269
Tigers 2115 1632 1573.02 0.772 0.744 0.02789
Royals 2083 1502 1446.85 0.721 0.695 0.02648
Mariners 2009 1492 1440.90 0.743 0.717 0.02544
Blue Jays 2123 1585 1534.63 0.747 0.723 0.02373
Cardinals 2204 1670 1618.52 0.758 0.734 0.02336
Twins 2004 1483 1442.90 0.740 0.720 0.02001
Padres 1951 1492 1459.41 0.765 0.748 0.01670
Red Sox 2062 1527 1495.15 0.741 0.725 0.01544
Yankees 2046 1495 1463.92 0.731 0.716 0.01519
Mets 2001 1519 1489.78 0.759 0.745 0.01460
Giants 1972 1490 1463.01 0.756 0.742 0.01369
White Sox 2059 1508 1484.16 0.732 0.721 0.01158
Rockies 2211 1675 1656.12 0.758 0.749 0.00854
Rangers 2206 1622 1604.17 0.735 0.727 0.00808
Athletics 2026 1494 1480.91 0.737 0.731 0.00646
Brewers 1958 1437 1426.49 0.734 0.729 0.00537
Diamondbacks 2223 1651 1641.68 0.743 0.738 0.00419
Phillies 2085 1535 1526.82 0.736 0.732 0.00393
Cubs 1879 1394 1389.39 0.742 0.739 0.00245
Angels 1922 1389 1384.71 0.723 0.720 0.00223
Devil Rays 2045 1428 1424.81 0.698 0.697 0.00156
Dodgers 2288 1671 1668.07 0.730 0.729 0.00128
Pirates 2187 1607 1609.11 0.735 0.736 -0.00096
Orioles 2020 1443 1448.28 0.714 0.717 -0.00261
Braves 2152 1562 1578.07 0.726 0.733 -0.00747
Marlins 1984 1443 1460.09 0.727 0.736 -0.00861
Reds 2036 1473 1501.86 0.723 0.738 -0.01418
Indians 2160 1514 1550.01 0.701 0.718 -0.01667
Nationals 1974 1415 1465.44 0.717 0.742 -0.02555

I'm not surprised that the Astros, with Everett at shortstop, were the best in the majors.
As you can see, the Red Sox infield did a pretty good job of turning balls in play into outs, especially considering that only the Devil Rays were given tougher balls to field. Let's look at flyballs now:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Air Balls Only (Fly balls, line drives, and bunt pops)
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Braves 2338 1516 1483.12 0.648 0.634 0.01407
Blue Jays 2203 1409 1380.22 0.640 0.627 0.01306
Yankees 2426 1608 1577.01 0.663 0.650 0.01278
Cubs 2273 1509 1485.08 0.664 0.653 0.01052
Mets 2309 1509 1487.02 0.654 0.644 0.00952
Angels 2379 1581 1562.76 0.665 0.657 0.00767
Brewers 2342 1513 1496.99 0.646 0.639 0.00684
Giants 2450 1608 1592.20 0.656 0.650 0.00645
Indians 2434 1585 1569.49 0.651 0.645 0.00637
Diamondbacks 2239 1398 1384.16 0.624 0.618 0.00618
Royals 2535 1618 1604.08 0.638 0.633 0.00549
Padres 2435 1624 1613.70 0.667 0.663 0.00423
Nationals 2620 1758 1755.09 0.671 0.670 0.00111
Reds 2491 1608 1605.91 0.646 0.645 0.00084
Cardinals 2244 1426 1426.20 0.635 0.636 -0.00009
Marlins 2355 1528 1528.87 0.649 0.649 -0.00037
Mariners 2422 1562 1563.02 0.645 0.645 -0.00042
White Sox 2469 1630 1632.33 0.660 0.661 -0.00095
Orioles 2415 1570 1573.97 0.650 0.652 -0.00165
Red Sox 2401 1501 1505.14 0.625 0.627 -0.00173
Tigers 2324 1480 1489.34 0.637 0.641 -0.00402
Rockies 2379 1454 1463.81 0.611 0.615 -0.00412
Devil Rays 2500 1620 1633.87 0.648 0.654 -0.00555
Phillies 2353 1486 1500.10 0.632 0.638 -0.00599
Twins 2324 1484 1500.26 0.639 0.646 -0.00700
Rangers 2336 1462 1480.25 0.626 0.634 -0.00781
Dodgers 2248 1413 1431.70 0.629 0.637 -0.00832
Athletics 2504 1626 1653.48 0.649 0.660 -0.01097
Astros 2242 1405 1437.28 0.627 0.641 -0.01440
Pirates 2261 1390 1427.93 0.615 0.632 -0.01678

I'm amazed that the Giants rank as high as they do, given the age of their team. But you can also see that the Yankees benefitted from trying to improve their outfield defense. When we run individual numbers, we'll see just who contributed to this performance. The other thing that strikes me about this data is just how tough it is to cover ground in the higher elevations. Look at the expected DER for the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Each had a tough set of balls to catch, and the Diamondbacks did a much better job getting to them.

Correction: Fixed caption on the second table.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
No Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show will not air tonight, as I'll be attending the semi-finals of the state (Massachusetts) field hockey tournament. Longmeadow High School is facing Notre Dame of Worcester. Both schools are undefeated.

My daughter manages the Longmeadow team. I'm probably one of the few dads who is proud to see his child scoring a game, rather than playing in it. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Mets Dump
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The Mets and Padres swap 25 and 29 year olds. Metsblog.com sums up the trade nicely:

...once again, Omar Minaya dumps two valued pitchers, with limited value to him, for two younger, equally, intriguing players, who he has control over for many years to come...this is becoming his patented move...

Not a blockbuster by any means, but it's the kind of deal that teams need to make to keep the roster in balance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top Picks
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Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi each win Manager of the Year, as expected. Leyland took a long term loser to the World Series, while Girardi guided a bunch of rookies to wild card contention. A great job by both men. Girardi loses his job, but becomes the first manager with a losing record to win the award.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM | Awards | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Mussina Reups
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The New York Post reports that Mike Mussina signed a two-years, $22.5 million contract with the Yankees:

With Mike Mussina re-upping to fall in between ace Chien-Ming Wang and Randy Johnson, if he is healthy, the Yankees have shown an interest in Seattle free agent Gil Meche and are entertaining the possibility of using newly-acquired Humberto Sanchez in a trade for an established starter.

The right-handed Meche would fill in the slot at the back end of the rotation, a slot Phil Hughes won't be ready for until at least June and that Carl Pavano can't be counted on to help at all.

According to several industry Sources, Mussina, 38 next month, and the Yankees have agreed to a two-year deal worth $22.5 million after he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA in 32 starts.

It's a perfectly reasonable amount for Mike. He's basically a solid #2 starter at this point. Meche is slated for the back of the rotation, where he belongs. He's solid, not great, not bad. He's been greatly helped by the ballpark in Seattle however. He's had success in Yankee Stadium, so we might expect the same type of home/road split.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Revenue Stream
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Scott Boras put a price on Hideki Matsui's value to the Yankees:

Boras said he began talks with Epstein yesterday but would not outline a timetable for talks or say when Matsuzaka would be visiting Boston. To calculate Matsuzaka's financial impact on the Red Sox, Boras said, he will use Hideki Matsui as a benchmark. Boras said he's heard from Japanese sources that Matsui brings in $21 million per season for the Yankees in advertising and marketing, so he wasn't blown away by the $51.1 million bid.

Take that with a grain of salt. Boras exaggerated a client's worth before. But even if the revenue stream was $10 million a year, a $50 million investment is worth that. That's 20% a year, 40% if you use Boras' number. You also see why the Yankees weren't willing to bid that high. They already have the revenue stream, and adding Matsuzaka wouldn't raise it that much, I'm guessing.

Update: As someone pointed out in the comments, these percentages are way off base because the $50 million isn't principal. Sorry about that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Pitchers | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Top Skipper
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The Baseball Writers announce the Manager of the Year awards later today. Here's how SB Nation voted. If Joe Girardi wins, as expected, he'll be the first manager with a losing record to take home the trophy. Winning the division isn't a prerequisite, nor even owning a good record. Tony Pena won with just 83 wins, but like Girardi, his Royals greatly exceeded expectations that season.

I'm also interested in seeing how much support Joe Torre receives. I thought this was one of Joe's better years as a manager, as he actually faced some adversity with all the injuries to the Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM | Awards | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 14, 2006
DeRosa Heads North
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The Cubs signed Mark DeRosa to a three-year contract, with the idea that he'd be their everyday second baseman. I wanted to say something positive about this, but all I can muster is that he's better than their usual middle infielder signing. For his career, his OBA is about league average. However, he's just a year younger than Todd Walker, and Todd got on base a lot better than Mark does. DeRosa comes cheap, so there's an improvement over what the Cubs had at second at the end of the season, and he doesn't break the bank. He's a decent role player, which is fine if Lee and Ramirez are healthy and hitting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Free Agents | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006
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Update: Please ignore this post. See here.

It's time to start the yearly look at defense using the Probabilistic Model of Range. My explanation of this model is here. I've settled on the smoothed visiting model this season. As always, let's start off with the teams.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006. Model Includes Parks, Smoothed Visiting Team Fielding
Team InPlay Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Blue Jays 4326 2994 2914.85 0.692 0.674 0.01830
Royals 4618 3120 3050.93 0.676 0.661 0.01496
Yankees 4472 3103 3040.92 0.694 0.680 0.01388
Mets 4310 3028 2976.80 0.703 0.691 0.01188
Cardinals 4448 3096 3044.72 0.696 0.685 0.01153
Mariners 4431 3054 3003.92 0.689 0.678 0.01130
Tigers 4439 3112 3062.36 0.701 0.690 0.01118
Padres 4386 3116 3073.11 0.710 0.701 0.00978
Giants 4422 3098 3055.20 0.701 0.691 0.00968
Astros 4342 3039 3002.64 0.700 0.692 0.00837
Cubs 4152 2903 2874.47 0.699 0.692 0.00687
Red Sox 4463 3028 3000.30 0.678 0.672 0.00621
Brewers 4300 2950 2923.48 0.686 0.680 0.00617
Twins 4328 2967 2943.16 0.686 0.680 0.00551
Angels 4301 2970 2947.46 0.691 0.685 0.00524
Diamondbacks 4462 3049 3025.84 0.683 0.678 0.00519
White Sox 4528 3138 3116.50 0.693 0.688 0.00475
Braves 4490 3078 3061.18 0.686 0.682 0.00375
Rockies 4590 3129 3119.94 0.682 0.680 0.00197
Rangers 4542 3084 3084.42 0.679 0.679 -0.00009
Phillies 4438 3021 3026.91 0.681 0.682 -0.00133
Orioles 4435 3013 3022.25 0.679 0.681 -0.00209
Devil Rays 4545 3048 3058.68 0.671 0.673 -0.00235
Athletics 4530 3120 3134.39 0.689 0.692 -0.00318
Dodgers 4536 3084 3099.77 0.680 0.683 -0.00348
Marlins 4339 2971 2988.96 0.685 0.689 -0.00414
Indians 4594 3099 3119.50 0.675 0.679 -0.00446
Reds 4527 3081 3107.77 0.681 0.686 -0.00591
Pirates 4448 2997 3037.04 0.674 0.683 -0.00900
Nationals 4594 3173 3220.53 0.691 0.701 -0.01035

I've been told that Ricciardi isn't overly concerned with defense, but the Blue Jays led the pack in 2006, turning 90 more balls into outs than expected. And that with the loss of Hudson and Troy Glaus at third base.

It looks like having Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera in the outfield helped. And despite A-Rod error prone ways at third, the Yankees did a very good job of turning balls into outs in 2006. And although the Royals defense came in for much criticism this year, it looks like it was much more the fault of the pitching staff. They Royas fielders did a fine job with what they were given.

A big surprise on the downside was the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe ranked near the top in 2005 as a team, but fell to near the bottom in 2006 with pretty much the same team. They gave up nearly three games worth of outs more than expected.

You can also see just how much the Red Sox defense helped them. Only Kansas City's DER was predicted to be lower.

The top three National League teams each won a division. The Dodgers and Athletics each made the post-season giving away more outs that expected.

There will be a lot more to come in the following days and weeks.

Update: I neglected to mention that the model is based on the 2002-2006 seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Edes Confirms Winning Bid
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On the Boston Globe's Extra Bases blog, Gordon Edes confirms the Red Sox won the bidding for Matsuzaka. Details to follow.

Update: NESN just interviewed Theo Epstein, but I was watching ESPNews and just caught the end of the phone call. It does indeed appear the Red Sox have the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka.

Update: It looks like the winning bid was 51.1 million dollars. The Red Sox did with Matsuzaka what the Yankees did with Damon last year, offered much more than their nearest competitor. I've gotten questions and comments about seriousness of the Red Sox offer. Some think the Red Sox have no intention of signing the pitcher, they just want to block the Yankees. While that possibility exists, I don't think it's the case here.

First of all, if the Red Sox did negotiate in bad faith, it might prevent Japanese teams from posting players in the future. I don't think MLB wants that to happen. The spread of the game globally is important to Selig, so anything that hinders that will be frowned upon.

So in order to look like they are negotiating in good faith, the Red Sox need to make a reasonable offer to Matsuzaka at some point. When that happens, all Matsuzaka has to do is say yes, and Boston loses $50 million.

I agree with the speculation that Boston is using this money to buy into the Japanese market. There will be Asian advertising at Fenway, and the Red Sox can sell rights to broadcast the game in Japan. Plus, think of how many Red Sox caps and shirts are going to be sold. No, the Red Sox will make a very good faith effort to sign Matsuzaka, and I have little doubt they'll be successful. It's the path that makes the most sense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 PM | Pitchers | Comments (25) | TrackBack (0)
Manny's Team
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Manny Acta officially became the manager of the Washington Nationals today.

Acta has managed in the minors and in the Dominican Winter League, and he led the Dominican Republic to the semifinals at the World Baseball Classic this year.

During that tournament, Acta benched a struggling Alfonso Soriano -- the All-Star who hit 46 homers and stole 41 bases for the Nationals in 2006 and has filed for free agency.

Acta said Soriano was the first player who called to congratulate him on being hired by the Nationals -- although the new manager indicated he figures the size of a contract offer will have more to do with where Soriano winds up.

At 37, Acta becomes the youngest manager in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cisco Fever
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The Oakland Athletics and Cisco formally announced plans to build a new stadium in Fremont.

"Today marks the beginning of a new era in A's baseball in the Bay Area," said Wolff. "Cisco Field will become a destination attraction that will be enjoyed by baseball fans throughout the Bay Area and beyond for generations to come. The location of the ballpark will able us to significantly expand our market place while giving our fans a unique experience at what promises to be one of the most exciting venues in the country. We thank Cisco Systems for the will and ability to make this new standard in fan and sponsor experience a reality. We have a number of rivers to cross, but once the value of what Cisco and the A's are committed to accomplish is clear to the citizens of Fremont and Alameda County, we are confident our plans will add to the economic, social and community base of the region we serve."

You can explore the ballpark here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | Stadiums | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Webb Wins Cy
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Brandon Webb beats Trevor Hoffman in a close race for the NL Cy Young Award. Webb polled 15 first place votes to Hoffman's 12, but also appeared on 29 ballots compared to 23 for Hoffman. Interestingly, it looks like most writers put Carpenter second, but with few first place votes he wound up third in the race. I think it's a good decision.

Webb threw a career-high 235 innings on the season while recording a career-high 178 strikeouts in addition to five complete games and three shutouts. Webb boasted the fourth-best ERA in the Majors and ranked second in innings pitched. He tied for second in complete games and tied for first in shutouts.

Webb went unbeaten in his first 13 starts, while posting an 8-0 record with a 2.14 ERA over that span.

Webb was in a sweet spot this season. His strikeouts were high enough to take pressure off his defense, but when called on, the fielders behind him were superb, posting a .713 DER. One reason for the complete games was his efficiency, as he allowed just 3.5 pitches per batter faced. It was a fine season by Brandon. He's a deserving recipient.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:34 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cy Young Voting
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The baseball writers award the NL Cy Young throphy today. It looks like Trevor Hoffman polled well:

Trevor Hoffman has a fighting chance of winning his first Cy Young Award today. Four of six voters polled said they listed Hoffman first on their three-deep ballot.

Thirty-two members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America cast votes at regular season's end. Other candidates include starters Chris Carpenter (Cardinals), Roy Oswalt (Astros), Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks) and Bronson Arroyo (Reds).

The Arizona Republic makes the case for Webb:

Statistically, nobody figures to run away with the NL Cy Young. All of the above, along with a few others, were relatively close in the numbers department. Most insiders, though, believe it will come down to Webb, Carpenter and Hoffman.

Webb (16-8) tied for the most wins in the league along with five others, including Zambrano (16-7). Carpenter was 15-8 and Hoffman led the league with 46 saves. Webb held the league ERA title until suffering a bitter defeat to the Padres on the final day of the regular season, dropping to third (3.10) behind Oswalt (2.98) and Carpenter (3.09).

Webb threw more innings (235) than Carpenter (221 2/3), and Carpenter had more strikeouts (184) than Webb (178). Other key categories were very close, too.

Carpenter may have an edge because the Cardinals were in playoff contention when final balloting was due. Ditto with Hoffman, although typically the Cy Young Award goes to starting pitchers.

Take your pick. I have a tough time giving the award to a player with just 63 innings pitched unless his ERA is microscopic. I'd probably vote for Webb based on playing in a tough home park. My gut, however, is that Carpenter repeats.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Awards | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
The Manufacturers
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks compares overall run scoring to Bill James Manufactured Runs (MR) measure in The Bill James Handbook 2007.

As it turns out, there is a moderate inverse correlation between the percentage of runs a team scores by "manufacturing" and the number of runs the team scores overall. There was a slight difference among leagues: the correlation across all of baseball was -0.573, -0.633 in the American League, and -0.502 in the National League.

Naturally, caveats apply. One seasons worth of numbers is a very low sample size, and of course, say it with me, correlation is not causation. But it appears that in general, teams that relied on grinding and manufacturing runs in 2006 tended, in general, to score less runs. Generally speaking.

This makes perfect sense. Teams tend to use one-run strategies when their offense isn't that good (see the comment on Ozzie Guillen here). But also, James counts two types of MRs. Type ones are runs that are intentionally manufactured; they results from steals and bunts, for example. Type II result from less direct means, like having a batter single, moving him up with two ground outs and scoring on a wild pitch. And teams that score like that often aren't good offenses, as their productive outs don't eat away at the team's OBA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Offense | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Marlins Money
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Greg Cote editorializes in the Miami Herald that the Marlins should be more aggressive in improving the team:

Indications are that the club plans to stand pat with its cheap-o payroll, with a budget plan that will leave little left over after stars Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are secured for the future.

Too bad. Management sought to improve neither the bullpen nor center field during last season's stretch run that ultimately fell short of the playoffs.

Time to make amends now.

Time to spend the money or deal the minor-league prospects to go get immediate, necessary help.

Time for the club to start winning back some of the public goodwill lost with the Girardi sacking.

Time to start furthering the sense of franchise momentum, and commitment, that might help kick-start the seemingly ever-foundering efforts to see a new retractable-domed stadium built.

The Tigers gave up three prospects to the Yankees to get aging Gary Sheffield.

The Marlins should be smarter, but just as aggressive. It would require increasing the majors' lowest 2006 payroll by enough to have substantial spending money even after re-signing Cabrera and Willis, which should be an absolute given.

Not asking you to turn into George Steinbrenner here and start shooting money from a shoulder cannon, Mr. Loria. But must the payroll be dead-last again? The butt of baseball jokes? Wouldn't a decent increase be worth more than all of your words about commitment to South Florida?

The Marlins should be able to take on at least another $30 million in payroll (after all, the current payroll is covered by revenue sharing). The question is, should it be now? In general, I'd say yes, simply because adding payroll and talent for this team is easy. But in general, a team should be allowed to develop so you know exactly what hole need to be filled. A good example of this was the Cleveland Indians of the early 1990s. They put together a young talented team, but let that group gel for two or three years before they brought in Hershiser, Martinez and Murray to make the run for the World Series. While I'd love to see Florida add a couple of star players to see what happens, I also understand it may not be the best plan for the organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Handbook Thoughts
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Steve Lombardi reviews The Bill James Handbook 2007 at Netshrine. I just received my copy of The Bill James Handbook 2007 yesterday. The first thing that caught my eye was the voting for best defensive players. Bill gathered a panel of experts from both the news media and the sabermetric world, gave them ballots and had them vote in a Borda count. What's interesting is there is a lot of agreement with the AL and NL voting. Even on something like shortstop, Everett wins but Vizquel comes in second (Jeter, however, doesn't make the top ten). Maddux and Rogers finish one-two among pitchers in their poll, and the objective stats back that up. That makes me think teams don't teach their pitchers to field any more if two 40 year olds are the best at turning balls into outs.

The biggest differences are in the outfield, where the gold glove awards vote for the best outfielders, giving centerfielders an advantage, while this poll was at each position. It's a voting system that's easily implemented and would likely improve the results of the voting, but not as much as I would have thought.

Also, in the managers section, take a look at Ozzie Guillen's entry. It's a good lesson in how the makeup of the team effects strategy. In 2005, with a weaker offense team, Guillen stole more, sacrificed more and put runners in motion more often than with his 2006 power team. That's just what a manager should do, as the investment in outs is more costly if it's easier to score a man from first with a long hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 AM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 13, 2006
Joe to the Booth
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Joe Girardi returns to Yankee Stadium next season as a broadcaster:

Girardi has a one-year deal with YES to work as an analyst on 60-plus Yankees games. He also will team with another ex-Yankees catcher and current broadcaster, John Flaherty, on a new show called "Behind The Plate."

"I loved my time with YES in 2004 and I'm sure I will love it in 2007," Girardi said. "I will approach it the same way I did in 2004 and try to get better."

And if Girardi gets an enticing opportunity to manage again before the end of next season, he doesn't think his contract with YES would stand in the way.

"Everyone always wants to know about out clauses," he said. "You can't predict what jobs are going to open up. ... I don't go into a job looking to be something else."

This also puts Joe in a position to replace Torre if the current manager does not return when his contract runs out at the end of 2007.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
$42 Million for Matsuzaka
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Peter Gammons reports that the Red Sox do indeed own the high bid for Matsuzaka, and his sources tell him it's $42 million. We'll know for sure tomorrow night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM | Pitchers | Comments (23) | TrackBack (0)
Rookie Winners
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The Baseball Writers picked Justin Verlander and Hanley Ramirez as Rookies of the Year. The AL Voting is here, and Verlander was the clear choice among the writers, although it was nice to see Liriano get one first place vote. Ramirez and Uggla didn't split the vote; Hanely received the most first place tallies as he takes home the Jackie Robinson award. Three Marlins finished in the top four, and six Flordia rookies received votes. I don't have much to argue here, a good job by the writers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:09 PM | Awards | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Balsley Back
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The Padres reached an agreement with pitching coach Darren Balsley. Their was a report of trouble between San Diego and the Knoxville native recently.

The Padres and Balsley, whose staff led the league in ERA this year, have reached agreement on a two-year contract that will be announced today. Negotiations took a detour after Balsley retained an adviser/agent, but Towers and Balsley worked through it after new manager Bud Black endorsed Balsley.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:00 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Position Players
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The Yankees may be introducing Yoga as a fitness routine.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM | Conditioning | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Player Exchange
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The GM Meetings get underway today. With the free agent market thin, I expect there will be more trades than usual. Also, watch out for the Matsuzaka winner coming to light today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rookie Day
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The Jackie Robinson Award for Rookies of the Year starts off award week this afternoon. Both the NL and AL awards get announced.

In the National League, it's a battle of hitters, while in the AL pitchers lead the way. I agree with the SB Nation voting on this award, in which they chose Hanley Ramirez. However, my guess is Ryan Zimmerman picks up the honor as votes get split between Ramirez and Uggla. Writers who look at home runs and RBI likely go for Uggla ahead of Ramirez; writers that look at OBA and slugging likely vote the other way. Hanley and Ryan are so close, it doesn't really matter, but I would put Ramirez slightly ahead based on a better OBA and slugging percentage, and playing a tougher defensive position.

In the American League, the pitchers dominate. Verlander probably gets the nod by means of pitching a full season. But Liriano struck out 20 more batters in 65 fewer innings. Liriano was so dominating that he even garnered more win shares than Justin. I'd vote Liriano before Verlander. We'll see what the writers thought later today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 12, 2006
Looking for a Hitter
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I get the feeling the Twins are having a tough time finding a DH. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Ramirez an Expensive Cub
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The Chicago Cubs sign Aramis Ramirez, keeping him in the fold, according to FoxSports.com:

Rather than test free agency, third baseman Aramis Ramirez has decided to remain with the Chicago Cubs.

Ramirez, 28, has agreed to a five-year contract with a vesting option, FOXSports.com has learned. While exact terms of the deal were not immediately available, it was believed to be for at least $70 million.

I can't argue with the money. Ramirez is a very good hitter at an important defensive position. But as Rosenthal points out:

Think maybe now the Cubs regret giving Ramirez an escape clause rather than additional money in the four-year, $42 million extension he signed at the start of the 2005 season?

If the Cubs had increased the size of that contract, by, say, an additional $10 million, Ramirez likely would have dropped his demand for the out clause. The Cubs then would have had him signed through '08, at a far lesser salary than they will pay him in his new deal.

Talk about a hollow victory: Proud as the Cubs might be that first baseman Derrek Lee is signed through 2010 and Ramirez through 2011, they still must pursue two starting pitchers, an outfield slugger, a center fielder and maybe a second baseman this off-season.

It seems doubtful the Cubs would sign free agent Alfonso Soriano to a deal in the $100 million range when they've already got big money committed to Ramirez and Lee.

Of course, if the Cubs were developing good players of their own, they wouldn't need to be in a position to acquire all these players. They've invested a lot of money in two excellent players, but they don't have the supporting cast to back them up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Free Agents | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Open Wallets
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More evidence this is a very good year to be a free agent:

The auction starts today, and the Angels already have their hands up. Today is the first day teams can bid upon free agents, and the Angels plan to submit opening bids so high that a player or two will accept right away and other teams will take their money elsewhere.

The union must love reading stories like this. The last few years, the owners got the market right, keeping the supply of free agents high enough that the alternatives kept the price from going to high. This year, with supply down, the money is coming out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rocky (Top) Relationship
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Kevin Towers and San Diego pitching coach Darren Balsley are involved in a heated contract dispute. Towers is upset Balsley hired an agent, and Balsley is upset the Padres want him to live in San Diego full-time:

Towers insists Balsley live in the San Diego area year-round so he can work the pitchers during the offseason in exchange for a multi-year contract Balsley deserves.

That's a hang-up for Balsley, who was born in Newport Beach, Calif., about halfway between San Diego and Los Angeles, and grew up rooting for the Padres while attending Mt. Carmel High School in San Diego.

Balsley prefers Knoxville, where he has lived for the past 10 years.

"Working for the Padres and living out there would be ideal, but it's just not that easy," he said.

Balsley and wife Carrie are the parents of three children: Allison, 10; Sarah, 7; and Jacob, 5.

"At this point it would be difficult to move my family there," he said.

Balsley enjoys living in East Tennessee.

"My wife is from the South," he said. "I played here, I love Knoxville and it's a nice place to live."

There is another factor.

"The cost of living out there is outrageous," Balsley said.

I'm coming down on Balsley's side here. First of all, you hire an agent because they have expertise in contract negotiations. Sure, the GM doesn't want to deal with that, but too bad. And secondly, how many Padres pitchers live in San Diego full time? I would suspect many make their home somewhere else. I agree with the author of the piece that Towers wants to bring in new blood without looking like he just fired a successful coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Marital Problems
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It appears the New York Daily News was correct about the reasons Steve Trachsel left the Mets late in the season.

When Steve Trachsel left the Mets on the eve of the playoffs, he said it was for personal reasons that had nothing to do with his marriage. On Thursday, however, his wife, Sarah Trachsel, filed for divorce in San Diego.

The Daily News reported that Trachsel had left the team on Oct.1 to deal with marital issues, which both Trachsel and his wife denied.

Reached at her home in Malibu, Calif., Sarah Trachsel said then that she was "absolutely not" filing for divorce.

It's a tough time for Steve as he lost in the playoffs, lost his job with the Mets and his wife at the same time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Youth Movement?
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The Yankees made their second deal of the week, once again trading an older player for young pitching:

The Orioles have agreed to trade reliever Chris Britton to the New York Yankees for starting pitcher Jaret Wright and cash, according to two team sources.

While the specifics of the deal have been worked out, the trade won't be official until it gets the commissioner's approval, which is necessary when more than $1 million in cash exchanges hands in a deal. That could happen as early as today.

The Yankees are paying the Orioles the amount it would cost them to buy out Wright's contract. In essence, they buy him out and get a pitcher in exchange.

Britton, a 23-year-old right-hander who was the Orioles' eighth-round selection in the 2001 draft, was possibly the team's second-best reliever as a rookie this past season behind closer Chris Ray . Britton was 0-2 with a 3.35 ERA and one save in 52 games.

However, team officials were concerned about Britton's lack of command of a second pitch behind his fastball, and they also were worried about ongoing conditioning problems.

Britton is listed at 6-3, 278 pounds. See yesterday's comment on Sanchez. The positives are that he put up a very good K/BB, and allowed just four home runs in 53 2/3 innings. I'm impressed that the Yankees continue to trade age for youth, something they haven't done in many years.

The Orioles reunite Wright with Leo Mazzone. If you look at Wright's career, he's only posted one outstanding season, the year Mazzone coached him in Atlanta. For $3 million dollars, the Orioles hope Leo can coax another one out of him.

The Yankees do seem to be woefully short of starters right now. Mike Mussina filed for free agency yesterday, leaving Wang the only starter healthy and officially on the team. I'd suspect that Barry Zito becomes a priority, especially if the report of the Red Sox winning the bidding on Matsuzaka are true.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 11, 2006
Ramirez Set Free
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It looks like Aramis Ramirez and the Chicago Cubs failed to reach an agreement.

Third baseman Aramis Ramirez will test free agency, FOXSports.com has learned, creating yet another hole for a team that already had planned to pursue two starting pitchers, an outfield slugger, a center fielder and maybe a second baseman. The Cubs' period of exclusivity with Ramirez expires at midnight Eastern time on Saturday. They can still re-sign him, but Ramirez is certain to attract heavy interest from the Angels and other clubs.

Think maybe now the Cubs regret giving Ramirez an escape clause rather than additional money in the four-year, $42 million deal he signed at the start of the 2005 season?

If the Cubs had increased the size of that contract, say, by an additional $10 million, Ramirez almost certainly would have dropped his demand for the out clause. The Cubs then would have kept him through '08 at a significantly lesser salary than the one they offered -- and Ramirez rejected -- in their latest talks.

The only bright side for the Cubs -- if you're looking for positive spin -- is that the elimination of Ramirez's $22.5 million guarantee over the next two seasons will better enable the team to add pitching and sign a major free-agent hitter such as Alfonso Soriano.

Ramirez turned out to be more consistently good than he played with Pittsburgh. That's made him more valuable, and probably contributed to him taking the escape clause.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sammy Sez
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Sammy Sosa issues a very strong denial of steroid use:

"Yeah, everyone is surprised because, you know why? I hit 60 [homers] three times. I put up the numbers. But you know what? I put up those numbers by going to bed at 9 o'clock at night in Chicago because I have to play a day game every day at 1 o'clock. I prepared myself for that.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM | Cheating | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
The Citi Never Sleeps
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The Mets found a name for their new stadium:

Goodbye, Shea Stadium; hello, CitiField. The Mets and Citigroup Inc. have agreed on a 20-year sponsorship deal for the team's new ballpark that is worth more than an average of $20 million annually and includes stadium naming rights, a baseball official said Saturday. The source spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the deal will not be announced until Monday at the formal groundbreaking.

This will be a record for U.S stadium naming rights, topping the approximately $10 million annually the NFL's Houston Texans receive from Reliant Energy to call their home Reliant Stadium.

I always feel bad at times like these. William Shea brought National League baseball back to New York, and I hope the Mets name some park of the new facility after him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 PM | Stadiums | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Fat Pitchers
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Ken Rosenthal makes a point about Humberto Sanchez, whom the Yankees acquired from Detroit Friday:

Sanchez, 23, throws 94-96 MPH with a big curveball and developing changeup, but his weight and durability are concerns. Listed as 6-foot-6, 230 pounds, he has battled a variety of injuries the past two seasons. But he was good enough to start the Futures Game last season, and it's still possible that he could wind up as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Ken obviously doesn't read The Hardball Times.

Tall pitchers, we find, are slightly worse-off than short pitchers, and overweight pitchers tend to perform better than their skinny brethren. Given that overweight pitchers also survive for much longer time periods in the major leagues, all else being equal, invest in fat guys. But generally, all else is not equal, in which the case the answer should be obvious: Go for the better ballplayer, always.

Bring on the pounds!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 PM | Trades | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Do Coaches Have a Clue?
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Can anyone explain to me why Joe Crede won the Silver Slugger award for AL third basemen? Here's a breakdown of offensive stats as third basemen in 2006. First of all, the AL is way behind the NL at the position. But Crede isn't even close to the best. How you can compare his stats to A-Rod's and still vote for Joe is beyond me. Even if you really don't like A-Rod, Glaus is still a much better choice.

Given the poor job done by the managers and coaches on their two awards (Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers) the voting should either be changed to a MVP style vote where players are rated, or just take away the vote and give it to some other group. How about the baseball bloggers? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM | Awards | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Sheffield in Detroit
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Yesterday I looked at the Sheffield deal from the Yankees perspective, but now we know how the Tigers plan to use Gary.

Leyland said he plans to use Sheffield as his primary designated hitter. He said Sheffield could spell Craig Monroe or Magglio Ordonez at either corner outfield position -- a hint that Monroe will return. But Sheffield would not play first base, Leyland said.

"You talk about adding a bat to your ballclub, and then you add Gary Sheffield," said Leyland, who described himself as "tickled to death" during an afternoon teleconference. "This is one of the ultimate bats in baseball, and one of the ultimate people. I can't tell you how happy we are."

Leyland was so happy he was up in the middle of the night working on lineups. Tigers designated hitters posted a mere .310 OBA in 2006, although they did collect 62 extra-base hits and 93 RBI. Sheffield's OBA has been over .350 every year since 1992, and 2006 ended a streak of 8 straight seasons slugging over .500. I suspect at his age a decline in offense is expected, but even a 10% drop off his career averages gives a big boost to the Tigers offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Trades | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Retirement Account
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The St. Louis Cardinals extended Jim Edmonds' contract through the 2008 season on Friday. He'll make a little more money in 2007 than if the Cardinals picked up his option, but not right away:

The deal pays Edmonds $11 million next season, including $3 million deferred without interest to be paid out from 2010-19. He is due $8 million in 2008.

Three hundred thousand dollars a year for ten years is a nice way to start one's retirement.

It seems his post-season performance made the difference between a buy-out and an extension:

Once into the postseason Edmonds contributed 10 RBIs in 16 games. He contributed two home runs in the team's seven-game win over the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series.

Jocketty said Edmonds' play in October "absolutely" factored into the team's decision to offer the extension. "There were some concerns about how long his (post-concussion) condition would persist," Jocketty said. "As we saw, it's a very difficult thing to get a handle on. Fortunately, Jim was able to be a major factor during the postseason. I don't think we win it without him."

Edmonds, of course, suffered through other injuries besides the concussion. Although the Cardinals are not paying Jim superstar money, it's still a good chunk of change for a player likely to decline and likely to pick up more injuries. It's tough to change gears after a championship, but if the Cardinals owned a young player capable of playing center, this was a good opportunity to make the switch. I assume they'll be looking to do just that in 2009.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Veterans Day
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On this Veterans Day I'd like express my appreciation to all my military readers, active, discharged or retired. Thank you for your service. To those on duty away from home, may you all come home safe and sound.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Other | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 10, 2006
Acta Nata
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It looks like the Washington Nationals are set to hire Manny Acta as their new manager. He's pulled out of an interview with the Oakland Athletics:

A source with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed that Acta's deal with the Nationals is "almost done."

He would be the fourth hire this year getting his first chance at managing a major league team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Numb3rs
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Bill Nye the science guy is doing sabermetrics on Numb3rs tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Field Hockey Finals
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Longmeadow and Westfield are scoreless at the half.

Update: Scoreless at the end of regulation.

Update: Longmeadow wins 1-0 in the second overtime.

Update:Here's the team celebrating:

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 PM | Other | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sheffield Deal Done
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I thought Friday afternoons were supposed to be slow for news. I go out for 45 minutes and Gary Sheffield is now a Tiger. He's traded for three prospects instead of an established pitcher:

In return for Sheffield, the Tigers sent Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett to New York. Detroit agreed to a two-year contract extension with Sheffield through the 2009 season.

...

Sanchez, 23, was a combined 10-6 with a 2.53 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 123 innings with Triple-A Toledo and Double-A Erie this year. Whelan, 22, was 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 27 saves for Class A Lakeland. Claggett, 22, was 7-2 with an 0.91 ERA and 14 saves for Class A West Michigan.

All are young. Sanchez is a high strikeout, low home-run pitcher. He walked a lot of batters so far, but his BB per 9 improved as he went through the minors. Whelan is the same, except he looks pretty unhittable. Claggett also has high strikeouts and low home runs, and his walks are already decent. This looks like a deal the Marlins would have made last year. I like the fact that the Yankees are going for strikeout pitchers. That really takes pressure off their defense. I don't know if any of these players can step in next year, but suddenly the Yankees minor league pitching looks pretty good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Boston Bid
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ESPN's Buster Olney gets the inside scoop on the Matsuzaka bid:

The Boston Red Sox may have posted the top bid for the right to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported, citing Major League Baseball sources.

There has been no official announcement, and the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka's team in Japan, have until Tuesday to accept or reject the high bid.

But Olney is reporting that the Red Sox may have posted the top bid with a figure between $38 million and $45 million, according to Major League Baseball officials who are monitoring the bidding.

MLB knows who the high bidder is, but keep the identity hidden from the Japanese team. They make the decision to accept or reject just on the dollar figure, which may include salary for the pitcher. If the above is correct, the Lions are getting a sweet deal.

Update: I was busy before and didn't have time to look up everything going through my mind. Here's details of the bidding procedure:

Regardless of which trigger is involved, the Japanese team has full discretion as to whether to post the player. If interested, it notifies the MLB Commissioner's Office that it wishes to post the player. MLB then distributes official notice to the 30 big league clubs advising that the player in question will be available for posting starting on a certain date. The clubs are given 72 hours to submit a blind bid for the player. After the 72-hour window expires, the club that submitted the highest blind bid is awarded the right to negotiate with the player.

The club and player then have 30 days to make a deal. If the club comes to an agreement with the player, the blind bid money goes to the Japanese team as a transfer fee. If there is no agreement with the player, no money exchanges hands between the MLB club and the Japanese team (the bid money is returned), and the player cannot be reposted for another year.

So if the Red Sox are the high bidder and they fail to sign Matsuzaka, no money changes hands. So indeed, this may be a defensive move by the Red Sox to keep Matsuzaka out of the majors and away from the Yankees, as some have suggested.

I doubt it, however. If the Red Sox are not bidding in good faith, the Japanese would likely stop posting players, which would be bad for all involved. Boston's front office knows the value of players, but on the field and off. As other suggested in the comments to this post, bringing in Japanese fans, who get up in the morning to watch the Red Sox when Matsuzaka is pitching, might be reason enough to make the investment.

It's sort of the opposite of the Johnny Damon situation last year. The Yankees made Johnny an offer he couldn't refuse and one the Red Sox wouldn't match. Now, they're the ones spending the money to bring the buzz back to Boston. My gut is the Red Sox are serious, and Matsuzaka winds up in the rotation.

Update: Matt Cerrone notes some skepticism about this report.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 PM | Pitchers | Comments (25) | TrackBack (0)
Deal in the Works
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Ed Price reports that the Yankees and Tigers are working on a deal for Gary Sheffield:

An official with one of the teams involved, who requested anonymity because he didn't want to jeopardize the negotiations, said the Tigers were "very interested" in acquiring Sheffield and had had multiple conversations about a deal in the past two days.

It was unclear what the Yankees would be getting in return, though the official said the Yankees were seeking "pitching, but that could mean starting or relief."

If the Tigers are really down on Bonderman, he's the pitcher I'd want. But I doubt the Yankees will turn up their nose at prospects. The question is, how much will other teams bid up Sheffield's services. Cleveland may be in the mix, which would make for an interesting bidding war between the two AL Central rivals. If the Indians can't land Gary, they might as well make Detroit pay a high price.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:31 PM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Biggio Stays an Astro
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The Astros plan to announce today that Craig Biggio will go for his 3000th hit as an Astro. He's not the hitter he used to be, but he's not getting superstar money, either. He'll be a good draw for Houston as he heads for the milestone. Look for him to reach the mark in early June.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Unfair Media
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Dodger Thoughts thinks about how the LA press would treat the JD drew story differently if DePodesta was still the GM:

I'm probably going to regret saying this, but if Paul DePodesta had been caught off guard by Drew's departure in the exact, exact same fashion as Ned Colletti was, however innocently, however insignificantly, with that month going by without a phone call, we would be hearing all about how rotten a communicator DePodesta was.

"I told [Colletti] there was a strong demand in the marketplace for guys with J.D.'s skills," said Scott Boras, Drew's agent. "They never made any proposals to us. I let them know we would be open to listening."

But I expect Colletti will be let off the hook - which is fine, just different.

Paul was a rotten communicator because he didn't talk to the press well. Therefore, he must be a rotten communicator overall. Ned is great at talking to the press, so this couldn't be a lack of communication.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Economizing Baseball
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Just arrived in the mail, an advance copy of The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed by JC Bradbury, author of Sabernomics. He looks at sabermetric research using the tools of economists. I've just started reading, but so far his arguments are interesting and informative. I'll have a few review at a later date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Case Against Soriano
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Bill Conlin makes a case against Soriano. Although he starts with some Bill James statistics, it's really the strikeouts that bother him:

That's how 473 strikeouts look all lined up to march into box scores, ready to kill rallies. That's how many times Ryan Howard (181), Soriano (160) and Utley (132) walked slowly back to the dugout last season.

You're talking about the 3-4-5 spots in the Phillies' batting order. And, yes, the thought of the 136 homers they hit last season is intoxicating. However, the mind boggles at the stranded RISP numbers all those strikeouts represent. Abandon all hope should general manager Pat Gillick be stuck with Mr. Irrelevant in leftfield. Pat Burrell had an amazing 131 strikeouts last season in just 462 at-bats. That raises the 2006 total for the quartet to 604. That's three mortal-lock Ks in the bank for each of 162 games.

The basic premise at work is the menace of Soriano on deck would keep managers from pitching around Howard, particularly with an open base. Remember, Soriano racked up his 160 while mainly leading off for the Nationals. If the guy was swinging at paper cups blowing past the plate in a spot where getting on base any whichway used to be the idea, imagine him in the four hole.

That returns us to baserunning, of course. If Charlie Manuel sticks Fonzi's righthanded bat between his lefty swingers, Howard would have to hit No. 3.

That is simply flawed thinking. If you had to clone a prototypical No. 4 hitter, you would come up with the current Ryan Howard model.

But you also would be stuck with the sixth-least efficient baserunner in the majors. Howard runs hard. He runs with good judgment. He just runs slower than bulk-rate mail. Utley is a plus 27. Ryan is a minus 21, which ties him with Burrell and reflects 4-for-24 going first to third, 9-for-16 second to home and 8-for-14 first to home.

So now assume Charlie has 40-40 man Soriano hitting behind Howard. So they single back-to-back with one out. No stolen base there - Howard is camped on second. Utley lines a single to right. Howard is held at third. Soriano is forced to slam on the brakes at second. Bases loaded, one out. That's three stranded runners waiting to happen.

Of course, if Soriano is actually going to put up a .360 OBA, he's a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. So one way around this is batting Soriano leadoff and Rollins 8th. Or bat Utley third and Howard fifth, or just don't worry all that much about batting lefties back-to-back. Utley 3rd, Howard 4th, Soriano 5th will work just fine.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Free Agents | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 09, 2006
With-Drew
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J.D. Drew opted out of the remaining three of his contract with the Dodgers:

Colletti said he was told Monday by Scott Boras, Drew's agent, that this move was a possibility. Then, Colletti said, he awoke Thursday to find a message on his cell phone from Boras giving him the news, which he received officially by fax in the afternoon.

"You learn in this business never to be surprised," Colletti said. "I'm surprised how it came down. Everything we had heard, everything that had been written led us to believe the player loved being here."

Drew, who turns 31 this month, hit .283 with 20 homers and 100 RBI last season -- his second with the Dodgers. He signed a five-year, $55 million contract Dec. 23, 2004, and had been guaranteed $33 million over the next three years with Los Angeles.

I didn't realize there were clauses in contracts that allowed a player to opt out. Does anyone know if this is standard language? Colletti appears to be very upset.

While Colletti refused to say he was angry, his feelings came through during a 30-minute conference call.

"I hang onto my feelings," Colletti said. "You try to use some diplomacy right now."

But the GM also said: "I know J.D. is a spiritual guy and a man of his word. I guess he changed his word. You learn never to be surprised when you're dealing in this arena. People change their minds. People change their word. They move on."

Colletti said Boras never asked for Drew's contract to be re-negotiated. The contract called for Drew to earn $11 million in each of the next three years. Paul DePodesta was the Dodgers' GM when Drew signed with the team.

Asked about his relationship with Boras, Colletti replied: "Scott does a real good job of what he does. I've known Scott for a long time. All I'll say is he does a really good job of what he does."

It's apparent that the market changed since Drew signed that five year contract. With Soriano looking to make over $15 million a year, Boras realizes the market for Drew might be even better. Drew, after all, owns a career OBA 30 points higher than Soriano's best single season mark. The downside of J.D., of course, is his health. But this certainly changes the free agent landscape and puts the Dodgers in a big offensive hole.

Update: Red Sox bloggers at Firebrand of the American League already want Drew in Boston. I wonder if there's any chance of him winding up in Philadelphia? That would be a laugh.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | Free Agents | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Matsuzaka to the Diamondbacks?
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That's how WasWatching reads this Google translation.

Proposal of the measure club for the Matuzaka Daisuke pitcher (Seibu) who aims toward the measure transfer with [posuteingu] was closed up on the 8th. It is seen that at present time New York [yankisu] and New York [metsutsu] etc are powerful, but coming here, also the jackpot the team which can be called it surfaced as ahead Matuzaka's transferring. It is Arizonan [daiyamondobatsukusu].

Or it might be a poor translation of this rotowire story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Wrong Middle
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Gary Sheffield thinks it's the 1980's.

Speaking to reporters at a charity event in New York Wednesday night, disgruntled Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield was anything but charitable when it came to GM Brian Cashman.

Sheffield told the New York Daily News that Yankees owner George Steinbrenner wants the slugger in the Bronx, "But when you have middle men blocking him and don't let you do certain things and get in the way, they let their personal feelings get in the way."

Asked if he was referring to Cashman, the slugger retorted "You know who the middle man is; you talk to him every day."

I'm sorry, I was under the impression that Cashman won the power to make decisions on player personnel last year. Maybe Gary missed the whole Torre firing fiasco that showed pretty clearly George doesn't get everything he wants any more.

Cashman is making absolutely the right move for the Yankees. Sheffield, due to his rather low salary for what he's capable of producing, is worth more to the Yankees under contract than as a free agent. After all his years in the game, Gary should know that by now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:14 PM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Showalter's Strengths
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It looks like the Cleveland Indians are thinking of hiring Buck Showalter for what he does best:

Former Rangers manager Buck Showalter is talking to the Indians about an advisory position, FOXSports.com has learned.

Showalter, fired last month by the Rangers with three years remaining on his contract, would assist both Indians general manager Mark Shapiro and manager Eric Wedge.

Buck's a great details guy. If he did nothing else but work on the best way to position fielder for each hitter, he'd help the Indians. With Texas paying his salary, it's a cheap way to bring a load of talent into both the front office and the dugout.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Budget Process
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An excellent post at U.S.S. Mariner on why teams should budget wins rather than money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Ballot
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The Hall of Fame ballot came up on this week's radio show. The topic was, are voters going to put Mark McGwire into the hall with both Ripken and Gwynn?

For the first time, the writers get a chance to punish players for the excesses of the 1990s. In addition to McGwire, Canseco and Caminiti make the ballot for the first time. And while the cases against Canseco and Caminiti based on their stats are strong, the two would normally garner some level of support, probably enough to stay on the ballot. At this point, I wonder if they get any votes.

But the more interesting case is McGwire. Mark posted a very high OBA and slugging percentage for his career, as well as the highest HR/AB ratio of all time. Without the steroid allegations, we'd be hearing Creeque Alley played at the induction ceremony. But I believe things are going to play out very differently.

Once the ballots are distributed, you'll see many stories along the lines of, "The McGwire controversy shouldn't detract from the Gwynn and Ripken induction." (The number of these will easily rival the mass of "David Eckstein is a scrappy little ballplayer" stories that followed the World Series.) Some will argue he shouldn't go into the Hall at all, and I suspect a few will argue for his enshirenment. But I believe the consenus that emerges is, "We don't need to put him in this year, let's wait."

Now, a problem arises. A player needs about 25 votes to stay on the ballot. What if the consensus is so strong that McGwire doesn't even get 25 votes? I assume all the writers don't get together and say, "Okay, you 25 vote for Mark so he stays on the ballot, and the rest of us will leave him off." They argue in their columns. The "don't vote for him this year" argument will be pretty convincing, and I feel there's a high probability that McGwire falls off the ballot.

And that's okay with me. It's my opinion that someone's Hall of Fame credentials don't change from year to year. If Bruce Sutter should be in the Hall, it should have been obvious on the first ballot. It's not like there were 10 better candidates every year better than Sutter before Bruce was elected.

So voters should make up their mind about Mark now. They have the evidence of his career and the evidence of his drug use. If they try to fudge it, they may end up eliminating McGwire's chances for good. The controversy isn't going away. Why is it okay to muck up Tim Raines' induction but not Gwynn and Ripken? No matter what year they decide to add McGwire, he's going to detract from someone's honor. The writers have a chance to send a clear message. They've been much more angry about drug use than the casual fan. Argue in your columns if McGwire belongs in the Hall or not. Don't worry about who else will be at the ceremony. That could lead to unintended consequences.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 AM | All-Time Greats | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Snorting the Moves
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Ducksnorts reviews the Padres' busy Wednesday and reminds me of something involving the newly created hole at second base. After reviewing the free agents:

This doesn't include guys like Atlanta's Brian Marcus Giles, or the Padres' own Todd Walker. So, really, we're looking at five relatively useful guys, one of whom (Durham) stands out a bit from the others.

There's been talk about Giles brothers playing together for a while. Marcus would certainly fill the hole of second baseman and leadoff man quite nicely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Time to Sell Cisco?
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Barry Witt offers more information on the new A's ballpark, to be sponsored by Cisco.

The deal is contingent on Fremont approving a large-scale development plan for the ballpark, homes and shops on the 143-acre parcel west of Interstate 880 in an area known as Pacific Commons. Cisco holds a 34-year lease on the property, which it obtained in 2000 when it thought it would expand its business operations there. The company has an option to buy the property in the next three years from the original developer.

Wolff, who declined to speak to reporters Wednesday as he was escorted to his car by Fremont City Manager Fred Diaz, told council members the development would have similarities to San Jose's Santana Row. That development features condominiums and a hotel stacked above street-level retail stores.

The major difference will be the addition of a high-tech ballpark with 32,000 to 35,000 seats that is filled with Cisco-produced infrastructure.

"He said this is going to be the most modern, most advanced technological facility in the country," said Fremont Councilman Bob Wieckowski, one of four council members who met with Wolff. The term of the council's fifth member, Dominic Dutra, ends in December, and Wolff did not meet with Bill Harrison, who was elected to the seat Tuesday night.

Cisco Chief Executive John Chambers has used a ballpark setting in recent weeks to demonstrate his company's new intelligent networking systems, showing how baseball fans could use a wireless device to buy ticket upgrades, order concessions, watch instant replay, get player statistics and even pay to have their pictures shown on the stadium jumbo screen. Cisco officials declined to discuss the ballpark Wednesday.

Sounds like a bloggers dream! Whenever I read about Woff and the stadium, I'm always impressed at how well he covers all the bases. Although he wants the city to help build the facility, he's setting it up more as a partnership than a blackmail scheme to the point where Fremont might actually benefit financially.

I hope, however, that they build the ballpark so it can be easily expanded. While it's fine to build a small park (it works for the Red Sox), if the A's become wildly popular, it would be nice to be able to easily add 5000 seats. If you plan for that when you build, the addition can be appended quickly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Stadiums | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 08, 2006
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | Podcasts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:12 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Barfield to the Tribe
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Via MetsBlog.com, Josh Barfield is now a member of the Cleveland Indians:

The Padres have ignited the hot-stove season Wednesday, trading second baseman Josh Barfield to the Indians for highly regarded Triple-A third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and Triple-A pitcher Andrew Brown. Barfield, 23, gave the Padres a strong rookie season this year, batting .280 with 32 doubles, 13 home runs, 72 runs scored and 21 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He also earned solid marks for his athletic defense.

The right-handed bat of Kouzmanoff, however, has strong appeal. In 244 at-bats in Double-A last season, Kouzmanoff batted .389 with 19 doubles, 15 home runs and 55 RBI. Triple-A pitching wasn't much of a problem for Kouzmanoff, 25, who went on to bat .353 with nine doubles and seven home runs in 102 at-bats for Buffalo.

Of course, with Marte, a third baseman was expendable for the Indians. Josh is just 24, so he's still developing as a player. Barfield's strength on offense was his ability to hit doubles and steal bases with a high percentage of success. He also ranked second in the NL in defensive win shares at second base. Defense should be a high priority for the Tribe this winter.

Andrew Brown struck out a lot of batters but walked a lot also. He put up very good numbers with runners in scoring position.

Time will tell how this trade works out. On the surface, it appears to be a fair deal. My one concern is Kouzmanoff is a couple of years older than Barfield. That gives the Padres a better short term upside, but the Indians the better long-term gain.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | Trades | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Does He Count as a Minority?
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The San Diego Padres hire Bud Black to manage the team:

Black will be introduced at the team's awards banquet Thursday night, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because an official announcement hadn't been made.

Black, who lives outside San Diego, has been the Angels' pitching coach for the last seven seasons. He played at San Diego State with Tony Gwynn and pitched in the big leagues for 15 seasons, helping the Kansas City Royals win the 1985 World Series.

Dusty Baker, considered the leading candidate, said he was told Wednesday morning that he didn't get the job.

"Life's full of disappointments sometime and you have to deal with them," Baker said.

During his tenure as pitching coach, the Angels compiled the second best ERA in the American League (behind the Oakland Athletics), and the seventh best in the majors. Black also took the job of the dugout interviewee during ESPN Sunday Night Baseball and Fox broadcasts. It looks like the Padres are trying to maximize their strength, which is pitching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:58 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Quirky Interview
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Jamie Quirk describes what it's like to be interviewed for the Oakland Athletics manager's opening:

Quirk, who interviewed for the Arizona job two years ago, described Tuesday's interview as unlike any that he's ever done. "It was just sitting around and shooting the breeze," Quirk said. "It was not a quiz of who knows more baseball. Just bouncing ideas off each other. I felt real comfortable with it. I thought it went well."

I find that fascinating. I'd expect the A's to test if the managerial candidate possessed sabermetric knowledge. Even challenge him to a game of Strat-o-Matic. It sounds like the type of interview you should conduct with a candidate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Mo Better Mota?
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Over at MetsBlog.com, they're debating whether the Mets should try to bring back Guillermo Mota. Matt notes the Mets are impressed with Mota's apology; they say nothing about his fastball. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
MLB Sweep
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The MLB-Japan All-Star series ended as it started, with a close fought, low scoring game. This time, Jose Reyes provided a dramatic finish:

Jose Reyes hit a walkoff, two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning Wednesday to give the MLB All-Stars a 5-3 victory over the Japan stars and a sweep of the five-game series.

Bill Hall singled before Reyes homered to right off reliever Hisashi Ogura to complete the major leaguers' first sweep in Japan in 72 years.

A team of major league players led by Babe Ruth went 17-0 in 1935.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | International | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Frivolous Awards
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Yesterday, while scanning the headlines I noticed Mark Redman won KC Royals Pitcher of the Year. My immediate reaction was to ignore a worthless story, but Joe Posnanski didn't:

I'm not here to argue whether or not Redman, with his 5.71 ERA (third-worst in the American League for pitchers with more than 25 starts) is more or less deserving of the award than, say, Luke Hudson, who wowed them with a 7-6 record and a 5.12 ERA (best among Royals starters!) or Joe Nelson, who buttoned down nine of 10 save opportunities and will come to camp next year just hoping to win a major-league job.

No, it's quite clear that none of them deserved it. The 2006 Royals plainly did not have a pitcher of the year. They did not have a pitcher you could cheer. They did not have a pitcher persevere. They did not have a pitcher worth a beer.

The Royals had their worst pitching staff ever, and that's saying something. They had a 5.65 ERA, highest in team history. That lovely ERA was also fourth-highest in the American League the last fifty years, not counting seasons shortened by strikes. If you want to count those strike years, the Royals had the sixth-highest ERA in the last 50 years, which doesn't sound much better.

There are so many horrifying and yet mesmerizing pitching numbers to look at -- to repeat my personal favorite, 13 different pitchers started more than five games for these Royals. All 13 had ERAs higher than 5.00. No one will ever break that record. But there are plenty of other glorious stats to consider. For example, the Royals starters allowed hitters a .492 slugging percentage. This was higher than Derek Jeter's slugging percentage, and he's probably going to win the American League MVP award.

Joe's right. When your team is this bad, handing out an award like this just reminds everyone how bad. If your pitcher of the year owns an ERA over five, you know the team's in trouble.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Awards | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Nats Keep Shuffling
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The Nationals fired broadcaster Tom Paciorek:

Paciorek, a former outfielder for six major league teams, was hired by the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network as an analyst before this past season, joining longtime Cardinals broadcaster Bob Carpenter. By most fan accounts, the tandem worked well together, and both men said they became close friends while covering the Nationals for 162 games.

MASN executive producer Chris Glass notified Paciorek he would not be retained, although the decision was made by officials from the Nationals, not the network. Paciorek said he was originally told that the rationale for his dismissal was that the team simply "wanted to move in the right direction."

"I'm thinking, I've been in this business for 17 years, and I think I deserve better than that," he said.

When he pressed MASN officials further about the reasoning, Paciorek said he was told the team was interested in an analyst more knowledgeable about pitching and catching.

MLB Extra Innings carries most MASN broadcasts, and that duo was fine. It seems with the manager firing and the hiring of new scouts, the new ownership is putting its mark on the team. Some good news for Harold Reynolds fans:

A replacement for Paciorek has not been named, but there are several high-profile broadcasters who could be looking for work, including former ESPN baseball analyst Harold Reynolds and Hall of Fame pitcher Don Sutton, who was dismissed by TBS and the Atlanta Braves last month.

Given that they're looking for someone more knowledgeable about pitching, Sutton seems the logical choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
The OOPs Team
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The Baseball Analysts names the most Overrated Offensive Players at each position for 2006. The fact that the list pulls in Shea Hillenbrand, Mark Grudzielanek and Garret Anderson gives it much credibility. Rich points out the mistakes some teams made with these players:

Melvin Mora was 19th in OPS among 22 qualified third basemen. He will be 35 in February. His three-year, $25 million extension that includes a no-trade clause isn't looking too swift for the Orioles at this point. Similarly, the Angels are still choking on a $48 million, four-year contract extension given to Anderson during the 2004 season that lasts through 2008. The deal also includes a team option for 2009 with a $3 million buyout. Pierre led the NL with 204 hits, but he also topped the circuit in outs with a career-high 532 (the 11th most ever and the second-highest total since 1982).

But as long as you hit for average, you'll get good press.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Pray for Sain
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Johnny Sain passed away:

Johnny Sain, a three-time All-Star who teamed with Warren Spahn to make up one of baseball's most fabled pitching tandems, died Tuesday. He was 89.

Sain's best year was 1948, when he and Hall of Famer Spahn led the Boston Braves to the World Series, where they lost to Cleveland. It was during that season when the famous saying was born: "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain."

The Boston Post ran a poem by sports editor Gerald Hern that led to the catchy phrase about the Braves' two dominant pitchers -- and the rest of their unheralded rotation.

"First we'll use Spahn, then we'll use Sain, Then an off day, followed by rain. Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain, And followed, we hope, by two days of rain," it read.

Sain won 20 games four times and posted a 3.49 ERA in 11 seasons. He's one of many players who lost time to World War II. My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Update: David Gertsman sends along this article examing the link between Sain and Leo Mazzone.

Mazzone told Schwarz of a conversation he had with Sain in 1979, two years after the Boston Braves' old ace (Spahn and Sain and Two Days of Rain) tried to turn around the 1977 Atlanta Braves' staff (at least he had Phil Niekro and Dick Ruthven to work with then... of course, they also had Eddie Solomon and Buzz Capra). Sain was apparently still employed by the Braves in some capacity at that time, and Mazzone was the organization's newly-hired minor league pitching coordinator. Mazzone was, by his own admission, highly impressed by Sain and his unconventional methods, telling Schwarz that Sain was the first person he talked to who didn't have all the same old cliches.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM | Deaths | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 07, 2006
Foulke Farewell
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The Red Sox decided not to exercise their option on Keith Foulke. Foulke can still exercise his option or agree to a buy out. Either way, the Red Sox are looking for a new closer:

Epstein also said he would try to pick up a closer through a trade or free agency and could lay the groundwork for a deal at the general managers' meetings in Naples, Fla., next Monday through Friday.

There doesn't seem to be much available in the free agent market, unless you're willing to take a chance on Gagne or Dotel.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Field Hockey Semis
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Longmeadow leads Agawam 3-1 in the second half in the Western Mass semi finals. Highlights to follow.

Update: Here's some highlights:

Update: The embedded video doesn't seem to be loading. You can see the video at this link, also.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 PM | Other | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Franchise Model
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Bob Bavasi writes:

I stop by your site from time to time to, well, muse.

So, here's one for you: How about a team that looks like a minor league team yet doesn't pay its players because it is forbidden to do say, plays all its games at home, and does so on the best drawing days of the week, Thursday through Sunday?

We've worked on doing this for four season, and it works.

Go ahead, muse on this:

www.ATeamOfYourOwn.com

They're looking for someone to take over their successful short season college team. Sounds like an interesting investment if you've ever wanted to own a ball club. Bob is also interested in your thoughts on this model.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:19 PM | Independent Leagues | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Roberts Cut Loose
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The Padres are willing to let Dave Roberts walk:

The Padres yesterday told the agent for Dave Roberts what has been apparent for several months: The club's No. 1 priority of the offseason is to acquire a power hitter, even if it means losing Roberts to free agency as a result.

General Manager Kevin Towers said he told agent John Boggs that retaining Roberts, the team's primary leadoff hitter and left fielder the past two years, is less important than getting a power hitter. If the power hitter is a corner outfielder, he likely will supplant Roberts, 34, who hasn't received a contractual offer for 2007 from the Padres.

"The No. 1 priority for us is getting a middle-of-the-order bat," Towers said after talking with Boggs. "We need to go out and exhaust all the options to try to do that."

Said Boggs: "If the priority for the Padres is a power bat and you are Dave Roberts, OK, fine, you can't do anything about it. We can't force the issue with the Padres."

Towers said the acquisition of a slugging infielder would make him more likely to pursue Roberts, but he said the timing could be difficult. The GM has said that right fielder Brian Giles, the team's main No. 3 hitter last year, could succeed Roberts as the leadoff man. Another candidate would be second baseman Josh Barfield.

It makes perfect sense. Roberts 2007 seasonal age will be 35, and while he's played well the last two years, his career numbers are just not that impressive. The money is much better spent on someone with more power, and possibly a better OBA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:29 PM | Transactions | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Lonnie Smith Fails to Prevent Braves Juggernaught
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Lonnie Smith planned to murder John Schuerholz in 1988. Think how many division titles his inaction cost teams like the Giants, Phillies and Mets! So children, heed this advice:

M'kay, kids, you shouldn't do drugs, m'kay, drugs are bad. You see, I was at the bottom of the barrel, I was a wreck. Why, I didn't even care about money. I was wasting my life... You boys need to listen up, m'kay, what I'm talking about might save your life some day... Drugs are bad. You shouldn't do drugs. If you do them, you're bad, because drugs are bad. It's a bad thing to do drugs, so don't be bad by doing drugs, m'kay, that'd be bad.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Crime | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Looking Back
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Rays of Light looks at the first round of the 1990 draft in two separate posts. It's clear that early draft picks matter. Of the first 10 players picked, six went on to have meaningful major league careers. Seven of the next sixteen did, with only Mussina having a truly outstanding career.

Correction: Fixed second link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM | Draft | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Howard Powered
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Ryan Howard hit his fourth home run in three games to to lead the MLB Stars over Japan 7-2. That's four straight wins for the western players. Howard might end up as popular in Japan as Ichiro. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | International | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Funny-Lee?
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The Times is under the impression that baseball GMs can't keep track of Koreans named Lee:

The teams pursuing Daisuke Matsuzaka -- the Mets, the Yankees and the Red Sox among them -- know exactly what they seek. Lee Byung-kyu, on the other hand, can cause all sorts of confusion.

Lee is the South Korean outfielder whose availability was announced last week by his American representatives, the Beverly Hills Sports Council. The only problem is the agents didn't offer any clear-cut way of identifying their client from all the other Lees who are standout baseball players in South Korea.

When the Koreans beat the United States in the World Baseball Classic in March, they had five Lees, including Byung-kyu, in their lineup.

When they knocked off Japan in a second-round game, then lost to Japan in the semifinals, the first three batters in the lineup and five of the first six were named Lee.

But the No. 1 Lee is Seung-yeop, whose 56 home runs in 2003 broke Sadaharu Oh's Asian record and who had five home runs after Korea's first five games in the Classic, the fifth against Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins.

Lee Byung-kyu's hitting credentials are not as gaudy, but he won the Korean batting championship in 2005 and led the league in hits that year and in three other seasons. And he has won six Gold Gloves for his defensive excellence.

But the best part of Lee's availability is that it provides an excuse to reprise a tune from the Broadway musical, "1776," about the Lees of Virginia: "Here a Lee, there a Lee. Everywhere a Lee, a Lee."

I know the author meant this to be funny (and he does get points for the 1776 reference), but it falls flat. After all, baseball has no problem keeping track of its Johnsons. From the 1983 Bill James Baseball Abstract:

Somebody Name Johnson, Minnesota

What I want to know is, just where the hell are all these Johnsons coming from? Is there a Johnson factory down there in the Sun Belt somewhere? In 1980, there were only four Johnson playing in the majors -- Cliff, John Henry, Lamar and Randy (John Henry is one Johnson), and Randy batted only 20 times. Last year we had at least five R. Johnson's alone -- R. Johnson of Atlanta, R.R. Johnson and R.W. Johnson of Montreal, plus Randy Johnson of Minnesota (I think this is Randy I'm supposed to be writing about here) and Ron Johnson of Kansas City, with at least eleven total Johnsons around the majors. How are we supposed to keep track of all these people? Maybe we should start assigning them distinctive nickname, Clicker and Turkey Shoot and stuff like that. Howard Johnson of Detroit, needless to say, is exempted from this requirement. And Drungo Larue Hazewood languishes in the minors. What a waste.

Now that's comedy.

Meanwhile, Todd Zolecki wonders why the Phillies aren't interested in Yakult Swallows third baseman Akinori Iwamura of Japan's Central League. Third base is a hole the Phillies need to phill.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | International | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Delgado Staying Put
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Carlos Delgado decides to stay with the Mets.

But because the Mets acquired Delgado during a multi-year contract, the lefty-hitting slugger had that very right. Yesterday, Mets GM Omar Minaya quashed any fears Delgado would be wearing another uniform in '07.

"I'm very pleased to say, we did talk to Carlos' agent, David Sloane, and Carlos has notified us that he is very happy to be here. He enjoys being with the New York Mets and everything about this organization. He will not exercise the right to demand a trade," Minaya said on a conference call. "He wants to be a Met for the rest of his career. Hopefully he'll not only win a World Series here, but he can get to 500 home runs. I think there's a very good chance that he has a chance to be Hall of Famer. My wish is that he will be with us for the rest of his career."

I don't think Mets fans were too worried about this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Liriano Cut
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Francisco Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday. He won't pitch again until the 2008 season. Meanwhile, the Twins are looking for a replacement:

The Twins were planning to bolster an already thin starting rotation before Liriano decided last week to have the surgery. The team's top priority in the offseason is to acquire a veteran starter. The Twins are believed to have some interest in Gil Meche, 28, a free-agent right-hander who is 55-44 with a 4.65 earned-run average in six seasons with Seattle.

Ryan usually isn't active on the free-agent market, and a trade would seem the more likely route for the team to try to meet its need.

Meche walks way too many for a Twins pitcher, but he did see a huge jump in his strikeout rate in 2006. He struck out 7.5 per 9 last season, after averaging, 6.0 during his five previous seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Flood of Free Agency
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In the mail, A Well-Paid Slave: Curt Flood's Fight for Free Agency in Professional Sports. Brad Snyder spends a few chapters on Flood's biography, but the bulk of the story is devoted to Flood's court battle. If you're interested in a more complete biography of Flood, I'd recommend Stepping Up: The Story of All-Star Curt Flood and His Fight for Baseball Players' Rights by Bronx Banter blogger Alex Belth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 06, 2006
The Mechanics of the Gryo Ball
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Popular Mechanics looks at how the Gyro Ball works, including a PDF slide show.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Fremont Athletics
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It looks very likely that the Oakland Athletics will move to Fremont:

I'm excited about the concept of a new stadium and what it could do to help the A's in the long-term. I don't think it means that they will be more likely to re-sign someone like Zito this year, but when some of the other contracts come up down the road, like Nick Swisher and Milton Bradley, perhaps the A's open the wallet a little more. It also puts a little needle right into the Giants because the A's are essentially moving right next door to where the Giants draw the majority of their fanbase. The tide may turn in the Giants/A's casual fan battle just by simple geography.

Correction: Fixed spelling of Fremont.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:37 PM | Team Movements | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Pricing the Marlins
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Fishstripes links to an estimation of the Marlins payroll for 2007. As you'd expect, it's very low, about $24 million. However, I'd like to point out that this estimation keeps a number of the young Marlins at the league minimum. I don't think that will happen. Most second-year players get a raise of some kind. I'm sure that will happen here, but it won't change the bottom line much.

This is why the Marlins are a scary team to me. They won 78 games last year and finished 10 games out of the wild card. What if you replace Hermida and Moehler with Soriano and Zito? According to win shares, Alfonso and Barry combined for 48 win shares in 2006. Moehler and Hermida combined for five. That's nine wins for the Marlins, and their team salary still comes in under $60 million.

It doesn't matter when it happens. The Marlins are developing a good team. When the time is right, they can easily pull the trigger and make themselves contenders over night with the addition of two top notch free agents. If they ever get a stadium deal, look for something like this to happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Late Awards
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It seems MLB is stretching out the big awards this year. We won't see the Rookie of the Year until the 13th of November, and the awards finish with the AL MVP eight days later. Rich Lederer looks at the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year candidates here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hamels and Moyer
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The Good Phight makes the case that Jamie Moyer didn't help Cole Hamels.

It turns out that Hamels' 2006 ERA hit its high point after his July 24th start, in which he was lit up for 7 ER in 5 1/3 innings. In his next five starts prior to Moyer's arrival (including the 8/19 start), King Cole went off: 1.83 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 34 1/3 innings. So, perhaps the more meaningful comparison would be between these numbers and his post-Moyer performance. It turns out that Hamels was on a big-time hot streak leading up to Moyer joining the team, and his subsequent numbers were actually worse.

At any rate, it appears, talking heads' comments and Hamels' own lip service to the contrary, that Moyer didn't help Hamels at all.

That's not to say Moyer won't be a help in the future. It would be bad if Moyer somehow convinced Hamels to pitch to contact. Hamel's strength is his ability to strike out batters. If Jamie can teach him a new pitch that is better at fooling batters, great. But Moyer shouldn't be trying to change Hamel's approach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 AM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Washington to Texas
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Evan Grant reports Ron Washington will be hired as the manager of the Texas Rangers:

He is viewed as an excellent communicator full of positive energy. Daniels made it clear during the news conference announcing Showalter's dismissal that he was searching for better communication.

That's always been Showalter's downfall. He's a fine strategist, he just doesn't manage people well. The article notes that as a coach in Oakland, the Athletics posted very good fielding percentages. Their DER was very good in 2005, good in 2004 and middle of the road in 2006. The Rangers DER was no where near as good over the same period. If Washington can get the Rangers to turn a few more balls in play into outs, he'll improved the pitching staff without changing a thing.

For an example of how Washington motivates, check out the section in the book Moneyball on how he taught Scott Hatteberg to play first base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Interest in Sheffield
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Anthony McCarron in the New York Daily News lists the teams interested in Gary Sheffield:

Now the Yankees will continue trade talks with the seven teams that have inquired about Sheffield - Detroit, Houston, Cleveland, Texas, San Diego, Baltimore and the Chicago Cubs. By picking up the option, the Yankees effectively blocked Sheffield from becoming a free agent and took control of where he will play next season.

Gary certainly helps all those clubs. San Diego and Detroit appear to be the best fit on the list and they are known for rich pitching staffs. I would think Sheffield would DH in Detroit, unless he's a better outfielder than Ordonez. An outfield of Giles, Cameron and Sheffield in San Diego would certainly bring some offense to the table.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 05, 2006
Exercising Gary
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As expected, the Yankees exercised the option on Gary Sheffield's contract. Now we wait to see what they can get for the outfielder.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | Transactions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
MLB Blowout
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The MLB-Japan All-Star series keeps supplying games of all stripes as the MLB team provided a blowout in the third contest. Ryan Howard hit his third home run in two days as his team won 11-4.

"I'm feeling real good about playing in Japan," said Howard. "The balls are jumping off my bat here and I hope to keep up the good work."

The Japanese are down to two chances for a win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM | International | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 04, 2006
Sosa to Return?
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Sammy Sosa wants another chance at 600 home runs:

"I feel good physically, and after a year of resting we are optimistic about making a decision soon about returning to baseball," the Dominican slugger told The Associated Press on Saturday.

The 37-year-old slugger did not play in 2006 after rejecting a non-guaranteed offer of $500,000 from the Washington Nationals. But the outfielder, perhaps best known for his epic home run duel with Mark McGwire in 1998, said he is motivated to return.

"I still have a lot of passion for the game and I'm in shape. I want to get to 600 home runs before saying goodbye," said Sosa.

I don't quite see why he'd be more valuable this year. A year off from baseball (as opposed to a year in rehabilitation) erodes skills. Given that Sosa's abilities were already declining, I'm not sure who'll take a flier on him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:57 PM | Players | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Slugfest in Tokyo
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Game 2 of the All-Star series in Japan featured a lot more offense but the same result, a win for the MLB All-Stars.

Howard hit a pair of homers Saturday and Iguchi drove in two runs with a clutch double as the MLB All-Stars defeated the stars of Japanese baseball 8-6 for a 2-0 lead in a five-game tour.

Howard, who led the majors with 58 homers for the Philadelphia Phillies, gave the major leaguers a 5-2 lead in the top of the third inning with a towering two-run homer to center field at Tokyo Dome.

"I got some good pitches to hit," Howard said. "We've got a lot of good players on this team, and I was happy to contribute."

The Japanese team showed some power, too:

Tomoya Satozaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines cut the lead to 7-4 with a two-run homer in the third off MLB starter Bronson Arroyo of the Cincinnati Reds, who picked up the win after giving up four runs on five hits over four innings.

So far we've seen one pitcher's duel and one slugfest, but both games were close. Sounds like the fans in Japan are getting a real treat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:17 PM | International | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sarge II
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Gary Matthews Jr. is another free agent that presents an interested GM with difficult decision. Matthews is a player that's confounded me over the seasons. He's always had a good eye for the strike zone, but never took his game to the next level. He'll play well for a stretch, then lousy for a stretch, and teams never seemed to give him the chance to work out of a slump. He's been waived three times in his career, until he finally caught on with the Rangers. His time in Baltimore seems to sum up his career. After the Met trade him to Baltimore, he puts up a .355 OBA. The Orioles give him just 162 at bats in 2003, and waive after he posts a .250 OBA. He then goes to San Diego and puts up a .346 OBA.

Well, at age 31, he finally put it all together. But if you take his career as a whole, it's just not that impressive. Except for last year, he's never hit for a high average. But if you send him to the plate 300 times, he'll draw a decent amount of walks and likely be above average in OBA. The team that signs him needs to be ready to allow him to play through the inevitable slump.

They also have to be prepared for a lot less production. Gary, due to his history and age is exactly the kind of player I'd expect to be a waste of big money. If anyone pays him over $10 million a year, they're likely to be sorry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 AM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bonds Ripped
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It appears Barry Bonds was not a team player in 2006:

The prevailing opinion is that the Giants will seek to re-sign Barry Bonds, who needs 22 home runs to break the all-time record, but sources said the club is weighing many factors.

Money is only one factor. Sources said the Giants also want assurances that Bonds would conduct himself in a more professional manner than he did this past season.

According to sources inside and outside the Giants clubhouse, Bonds exasperated teammates and coaches several times last season when he chose to make himself unavailable in pinch-hitting situations.

Multiple sources confirmed that Bonds had taken off his uniform during the ninth inning of a 5-3 loss at Milwaukee on Sept. 24. The Giants brought the winning run to the plate, but rookie catcher Eliezer Alfonzo hit into a game-ending double play and the loss officially eliminated the Giants from the division race.

Afterward, manager Felipe Alou covered for Bonds, saying it was a manager's decision.

I'm somewhat amazed Alou allowed that to go on. Felipe's always struck me as an in-your-face, speak-my-mind manager. If the stories in the article are accurate, then it's good Felipe is gone. I'm not quite sure why the Giants are still interested in bringing Barry back:

But sources said that before the Giants open talks to bring him back, upper management wants assurances that Bonds would be attentive to new manager Bruce Bochy and handle himself in a professional manner.

After all these years of special treatment by the Giants, why do they think Barry will change now? And what, exactly, is the penalty if he disobeys Bochy? The only discipline I can imagine working is benching him so he can't break the home run record, but that's going to cost the team wins. If a team signs Bonds, they pretty much have to accept the baggage he carries.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 AM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
More on Lidle
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Here's more on the Lidle plane crash:

The report said the airplane was flying along the East River between Manhattan and Queens when it attempted a U-turn with only 1,300 feet of room for the turn. To make a successful turn, the aircraft would have had to bank so steeply that it might have stalled, the NTSB said in an update on the crash.

Lidle and Stanger were making an aerial tour of Manhattan before flying back to California.

Though Stanger was an experienced pilot, Lidle was not.

Investigators found no problem with the propeller and engine, nor did they find any evidence of a fire or other damage while the airplane was in flight.

Had the pilot used the full width of the river to turn, he would have had 2,100 feet, the NTSB said. Instead, the pilot was flying closer to the middle of the river, leaving a smaller margin for error, the staff report said.

The NTSB did not determine who was at the controls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 AM | Deaths | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 03, 2006
Golden Oldies
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Rawlings announced the National League gold gloves today, with Greg Maddux picking up #16, tying him with JIm Kaat for most times winning the award. Omar Vizquel picked up his eleventh. Like yesterday, I find it hard to believe that two fielders so along in years are really the best defensive players at their position. Would you really take Vizquel over Furcal or Everett based on defense right now?

There were a couple of youngsters as well. Orlando Hudson won the award at second base, and Albert Pujols won his first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:26 PM | Awards | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Tommy Liriano
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As expected, doctors scheduled Tommy John surgery for Francisco Liriano:

Liriano will undergo Tommy John surgery Monday in California with Dr. Lewis Yocum performing and Twins physician Dr. John Steubs assisting, the team said Friday.

The Tommy John procedure, which is a replacement of the ulnar collateral ligament, is named after the former Yankees pitcher. Recovery typically takes at least a year.

That's some sophomore slump. When and if he returns to action in 2008, he'll be just 24, so there's plenty of time for a great career. However, his mechanics are likely the cause of the injury. Can these be changed without hampering his effectiveness?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
It Was the Wind
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The NTSB determined the cause of Corey Lidle's crash:

The National Transportation Safety Board ruled that the wind, coupled with the pilot's attempt at turning too sharply over New York's East River, forced the aircraft over Manhattan and into the side of a high-rise building.

It seems like the wind turned a small mistake into a deadly one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More on Zito
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Padres RunDown makes the case for San Diego spending bucks for Barry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
International World Series
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The MLB All-Stars won the first game of their Japanese tour. I like the fact that the Japanese teams are becoming more competitive with the US leagues:

Japanese manager Katsuya Nomura said the gap between Japan and the major leagues is closing.

'I've been in this game for 50 years,' Nomura said. 'I've taken part in this series several times and it used to be there was a huge gap in the level of play, but it's closing and we had a very good chance of winning this ballgame tonight.'

The final score was 3-2. As the Asian leagues get stronger, I hope to see a real playoff between an Asian champion and a North American champion some day. Maybe even regular season games between the two.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 AM | International | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Zito's Money
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Barry Zito represents the cream of the crop of available pitchers in the free agent pool this winter. Like Soriano, Barry benefits from a lack of supply at his position. The only two left-handed starters of note this winter are Andy Pettitte and Ted Lilly, and Pettitte is thinking of retirement. The problem facing teams signing Zito is that they're looking at a 29 year-old pitcher already in decline:

Barry ZitoThrough 20032004-2006
ERA3.124.05
K/97.26.6
BB/93.43.7
HR/90.791.10

It's interesting to note that Barry's decline corresponds to the departure of pitching coach Rick Peterson from Oakland. It makes you wonder if this gives the Mets the inside track on landing Zito.

How do you bid on such a pitcher? The lack of competition for lefty starters drives his price up, but his record over the last three seasons is good but not spectacular. A.J. Burnett recieved $11 million a season last year with better numbers than Barry. Zito is healthier, making 34 or 35 starts in each of the last six seasons.

Using talent and health, a good estimate for Barry's worth should be around Burnett's. It's a seller's market, however. The teams avoided this situation over the last few years, with enough free agents on the market to keep the price down. Now, a possible bidding war (especially among the New York teams) may drive Zito's price over $15 million a year. That will feed into following seasons, as Barry's money becomes the new base. Will owners be smart enough to avoid this and bid simply on what Zito is worth? With the new CBA and television money, I doubt it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 AM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Trade Speculation
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Andrew Baggerly in the Contra Costa Times speculates on Pat Burrell for Armando Benitez trade. It seems Burrell is willing to waive his no-trade clause for a move closer to home.

On Burrell:

Burrell, the first overall pick in 1998, hit .258 with 29 home runs and 95 RBI last season. He strikes out often but gets on base; he drew 98 walks and had a solid .388 on-base percentage.

He also has chronic pain in his right foot that did not improve after surgery following the 2005 season. He remained in left field because the Phillies have Ryan Howard at first base.

But Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said Burrell could be an adequate first baseman.

"He's more athletic than a lot of first basemen I've seen," Manuel said. " He'd be fine over there."

Burrell isn't an ideal fit for the Giants, who want to build a more dynamic lineup and eliminate station-to-station runners. But there are few available hitters who can match Burrell's run production.

Baggerly even thinks Philadelphia would be a good fit for Benitez:

A Phillies source said Manuel wants new choices in his bullpen, that he isn't afraid to take on difficult personalities and would welcome an effective Benitez.

Benitez told head trainer Dave Groeschner this week that his right knee rehabilitation is going well and he has no pain or swelling.

"It's an arthritic knee so anything can change, but we're pleased with his progress," Groeschner said.

It would be more of a money swap than a talent swap.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Trades • | Trades | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Debating A-Rod
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Tom Peyer and Hart Seely, the authors of O Holy Cow!: The Selected Verse of Phil Rizzuto, take a satirical look at the trade Alex Rodriguez debate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Players | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 02, 2006
Predicting Soriano
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Although the overall number of free agents will likely be close to 200, the number of impact players in that group is fairly small. Going through the list yesterday of players who filed, I counted 21 that might make an impact. One of the more interesting hitters is Alfonso Soriano. Soriano played a career year in 2006. Through the 2005 season, his career averages were .280 BA, .320 OBA and a .500 slugging percentage. The 2006 season saw those averages come out at .277, .351 and .560. His batting average was right in line with his career, but OBA was well above his career average and 13 points above his previous high.

It turns out a player with a .320 OBA has a 4% chance of posting a.351 OBA over 726 plate appearances. So it's significant at the .05 level. Another way of looking at it is by a confidence interval, and the .351 is in the 95% confidence level for a player with a .320 OBA. In other words, Soriano was very close to his OBA in 2006 representing a new level of performance.

If I'm a GM interested in signing Alfonso, I'll want to know what changed. Why did he draw so many more walks than in 2006 than in previous seasons? Did the Washington coaches get him to change his approach? Was it that with a poor offense behind him, he got less to hit? If it was coaching, it this something that he's absorbed, or does he constantly need to be reminded?

At .350, with his power, he's a very productive player. At a .330 OBA, he's more of an out machine and certainly not a good leadoff hitter. My guess is that the teams convinced 2006 is real are the teams that wind up bidding for Alfonso. The other will find the money offered too rich.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Free Agents | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Gold Fingers
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MLB announced the Gold Glove Awards today. It's pretty much the same as last year, except Ivan Rodriguez won at catcher and Mark Grudzielanek won at second.

Chavez, Hunter and Ichiro have now each won six consecutive Gold Gloves, while Jeter and Wells are three-time winners.

You know what? There are very few players who are great at something six years in a row. Is there really any reason to think that Ichrio, who's getting older, is really as good as he was in 2001? That some 24 year old right fielder isn't better? The voting process for the gold glove is bad. I believe it's one man one vote with a simple plurality winning. They really should make coaches and managers list a top three.

I hope to get my data for the Probabilistic Model of Range soon so we get a better idea of who really deserved the award.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM | Awards | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)
Talking Turkey
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Royals Authority makes a good case for retaining Jimmy Gobble rather than releasing him to free agency to avoid arbitration.

Now, some of the above is a little bit of apples to oranges comparisions, but they are numbers that show at least some potential. Frankly, you can ignore all that and simply look at a young lefthander whose strikeouts per 9 innings have gone from 2.98 to 6.37 to 8.57 in the past three seasons.

Kansas City would be foolish not to either get a deal done or agree to arbitration. It is likely Gobble gets something like Affeldt got last year ($950,000) and that is really pretty cheap in the baseball world - even the Kansas City baseball world.

Once that is over with, the Royals would be wise to install Gobble at the back of the rotation and not make any decision on him until he has 30 starts and 180 innings in the book next year. If he fails miserably, exactly what is the team out? If he shows promise....well, then you have just added another arm to an organization that desperately needs them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Interviewing Baker
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The Padres invited Dusty Baker for an interview:

Such a man does not normally consent to courtesy interviews. Such a man would not allow himself to be used simply to illustrate the Padres' commitment to diversity. If Dusty Baker is going to be a party to this process - if he's going to go through with a Monday interview as the sixth candidate under consideration to succeed Bochy - he has to believe he's the front-runner.

That all of this flies in the face of everything the Padres have done so far only makes it that much more intriguing.

In failing to offer Bochy a contract extension, in allowing him to depart for a division rival, and in drawing up a list of possible replacements who have mostly induced shrugs and elicited yawns, the Padres had encouraged their fans to be cynical.

Their strategy appeared focused on finding a field manager who would both know his place and accept a salary substantially lower than Bochy's. They seemed to be screening candidates based on potential cost and prolonged obscurity: Bud Black, Trey Hillman, Jose Oquendo, Tim Wallach and Ron Wotus.

This was the business model Walter O'Malley used when he ran the Dodgers (at considerable profit), one in which he equated employees to a row of peas in a length of pipe. By squeezing a low-cost pea into the near end, O'Malley would cause a high-cost pea to tumble out the other end.

"That, gentlemen, is how you make money," O'Malley said.

I believe it's simply a diversity interview. Oquendo is the only minority among the five. By interviewing Dusty also, the Padres keep the commissioner off their back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Beat Writer Speaks
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Sports Media Guide speaks with former Yankees beat writer Sam Borden. Borden provides a glimpse into the hectic life he led covering the Yankees.

Q. Do you have ulcers?

A. I don't think so. I haven't lost any hair. I haven't lost my girlfriend either which is a big deal. People always ask me how we've stayed together. You have to have somebody extremely understanding - and my girlfriend is. I'm away 220 nights a year and there are a lot of phone calls during dinner. There are abrupt exits to work on a story. The job can take a toll on your personal life. It may seem like a dream job to guys from Westchester, but guys also like having beers with their buddies and Friday night dinners with their girlfriends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Interviews | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Interview with the Rays
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Rays of Light posts a lengthy transcript of a radio interview with the Rays management team. Lots of interesting things, with highlights for those of you looking for a quick read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Matsuzaka No Mariner
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One team decided not to bid on Daisuke Matsuzaka:

It had long been speculated the Mariners would bid for Matsuzaka, 26, a right-hander who was 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA in Japan's Pacific League this season. He impressed major league scouts in March during the World Baseball Classic, as he was selected MVP after Japan won the title. The Mariners have said adding quality starting pitchers is their top offseason priority.

Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi confirmed through a team spokesman that the club would not bid for Matsuzaka.

Bavasi told MLB.com that Mariners owner Hiroshi Yamauchi made the decision.

It's a bit of a surprise, as the Mariners over the years courted Japanese players. The team's offense played poorly in 2006, and my feeling is they should concentrate more on scoring runs than acquiring pitchers they can't support.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 AM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Batted Ball Runs
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The Hardball Times provides a preview of their new annual, introducing new metrics on batted balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Urban Planning
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How do you get 40,000 people in and out of a ballpark efficiently? Washington is trying to plan for that.

The District is in the last stages of developing a handbook for moving tens of thousands of people in and out of the Washington Nationals new ballpark on game days.

The handbook "will define exactly how everything is going to be done on game days," one planner said, including traffic and pedestrian movement, police presence, ambulance staging and fan parking. It will put in place specific mechanisms for movement, from when to restrict on-street parking to which roads to close for pedestrians.

Given the enormous traffic problems in Washington, this is no small task.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Stadiums | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 01, 2006
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 PM | Podcasts | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More on Mota
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Guillermo Mota apologized for his drug use:

"I have no one to blame but myself," Mota said in a statement that did not explain how he ran afoul of baseball's drug rules. "I take full responsibility for my actions and accept MLB's suspension. I used extremely poor judgment and deserve to be held accountable."

"To my teammates and the entire Mets organization, I am sorry. I truly regret what I did and hope that you can forgive me. To baseball fans everywhere, I understand that you are disappointed in me, and I don't blame you. I feel terrible and I promise this is the first and last time that this will happen. I am determined to prove to you that this was one mistake."

Mota's agent, Adam Katz, said the pitcher intends to play next season.

"He is anxious to get back to work," Katz said. "I believe he'll be a better person and a better player moving forward."

Thank you, Guillermo for at least being man enough to admit your mistake.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 PM | Cheating | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Mota Suspended
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XM MLB Chat just heard that Guillermo Mota violated MLB's drug policy and was suspended for 50 games. I'll try to find a wire story.

Update: Here's the AP wire. It continues to impress me how many relief pitchers are caught doing this. We think of cheaters as the power hitters, but the relievers need to be able to go every day, and the anti-inflammatory benefits of the drugs must really help.

He's a free agent, so not being able to play for the first 50 games next season really cuts down on how his marketability. Add to that, teams may not be able to judge his true ability if drugs were helping him collect his numbers. I wonder if any team will take a flyer on Mota?

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Cheating | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:37 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Case
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Via Deadspin, the Smoking Gun provides us with the complaint filed by Harold Reynolds. Some points about Harold brought up in the suit:

I can't remember Reynolds swearing. I also never saw him smoke or drink.

I've been a recipient of Harold's generosity. He's helped me get tickets to games, and once gave me his first class ticket on a flight to the World Series.

It's going to be an interesting fight. I can't wait to see ESPN's reaction, especially to the part about ESPN not complying with law that requires them to make Harold's personnel file available to Reynolds.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 PM | News Media | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Bye-Bye Bagwell
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Jeff Bagwell's playing days with the Houston Astros are officially over, as Houston bought out the rest of his contract. However, expect him to be back with the team in some other capacity:

One door has closed, but several other opportunities are in play once Bagwell is ready.

Don't expect to see Bagwell in the broadcast booth, though.

"I wouldn't close the door on something like that, but at this particular time that wouldn't be my forte," he said of broadcasting. "I mumble."

Maybe so, but he realizes his accomplishments and leadership qualities give him the attention of every teammate.

"I do have something to offer as far as my passion for the game and my experience," he said. "I think there's something to be offered. That's something for another time to talk about."

My guess is that Bagwell at some point will become the hitting instructor or bench coach for the Astros, and eventually replace Garner as manager.

The thing that impresses me the most about Jeff's career was his hitting at the Astrodome. This was a notoriously tough park for power hitters, yet over his career Bagwell posted a batting average over .300, an OBA well over .400 and a slugging percentage in the mid .500s. Impressive numbers for anyone, but even more impressive in that park.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM | All-Time Greats | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Price Freeze
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The Red Sox are keeping 2006 prices on most of their tickets:

The Red Sox, after a season in which they failed to advance to the playoffs for the first time since 2002, announced yesterday that ticket prices will remain unchanged in 2007 for 81.5 percent of the seats at Fenway Park.

With the industry awash in money -- Major League Baseball announced it expects a record $5.2 billion in revenues in 2006 and has struck new TV deals with Fox, ESPN, and TBS -- and labor peace maintained with an accord this week on a new collective bargaining agreement, the Sox said they made a conscious effort to hold the line on ticket prices.

A total of 30,155 tickets per game will be priced the same as 2006. The range includes pavilion box, loge box, right field roof box, right field roof seats, infield grandstand, outfield grandstand, bleachers, upper bleachers, and general standing room.

Of course, this just makes the tickets harder to get, since demand was still very high in 2006. Given the that the Red Sox did very well in the draft for the second year in a row, that demand is not likely to fade soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Tickets | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Heading West
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The Seibu Lions officially posted Daisuke Matsuzaka today.

The Lions reportedly plan to seek $30 million from a major league team just for rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. That's not including the $13-15 million annual salary he'll likely earn.

Matsuzaka has selected Scott Boras to represent him in negotiations with major league teams.

As this practice becomes more common, you'll start to hear complaints about the rich teams getting all the good Japanese players. There will be calls for drafts, waivers, etc, all the things that destroyed the independent minor league system in this country. I hope those attempts are unsuccessful. Right now, Japanese teams have a powerful incentive to send their players to the United States, a huge money windfall. Without that, they're probably better off keeping their best players as attendance draws.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Pitchers | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)