Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 06, 2006
Perfect Storm

Conditions were very good for the Sanchez no-hitter tonight. Sanchez is tough to hit. Coming into tonight, he's allowed a.228 batting average. The Diamondbacks are cold, hitting just .222 in the month of September. When you have a pitcher with a low BA allowed and an offense with a low batting average, you expect the two to combine into something even lower. I suspect the probability of a hit in any given at bat tonight was around .150. That would make the probability of a no-hitter around 1.25%, which is probably pretty high for an individual game.

Update: Someone in the comments questioned my seat of the pants calculation, so I did it out. The probability of a hit in any given at bat in this game was .189. That makes the probability of a no hitter 0.34%, which I guess is still pretty high for an individual game. (About 3 times in 1000 such games.)


Posted by David Pinto at 09:36 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Comments

How did you divine those numbers? .150 sounds a bit low, even if the D-Backs were hitting .222 this month. That .222 average combined with a .228 BAA sounds more like a .200 to me.

Posted by: Ryan Armbrust at September 6, 2006 10:10 PM

Both are far below average. You'd expect the combination to be way below average.

Posted by: David Pinto at September 6, 2006 10:17 PM

Kinda sounds like Major Leagues to me... Loria wants to move the team (ironicaly) out of Florida so he sells the team and fills it with unknown rookies and a vet pitcher (D-T).

Like all the NL teams in the race, they have a chance... but I think I found my horse in this race.

Posted by: Andrew at September 6, 2006 10:53 PM

Except that I doubt Sanchez' "true" BA allowed is that low. Going forward, given his unimpressive K rate, I'd expect the BA against him to be much higher than that - like perhaps even .260 or so.

Posted by: Mike at September 7, 2006 07:08 AM
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