September 06, 2006
Perfect Storm
Conditions were very good for the Sanchez no-hitter tonight. Sanchez is tough to hit. Coming into tonight, he's allowed a.228 batting average. The Diamondbacks are cold, hitting just .222 in the month of September. When you have a pitcher with a low BA allowed and an offense with a low batting average, you expect the two to combine into something even lower. I suspect the probability of a hit in any given at bat tonight was around .150. That would make the probability of a no-hitter around 1.25%, which is probably pretty high for an individual game.
Update: Someone in the comments questioned my seat of the pants calculation, so I did it out. The probability of a hit in any given at bat in this game was .189. That makes the probability of a no hitter 0.34%, which I guess is still pretty high for an individual game. (About 3 times in 1000 such games.)
Posted by David Pinto at
09:36 PM
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How did you divine those numbers? .150 sounds a bit low, even if the D-Backs were hitting .222 this month. That .222 average combined with a .228 BAA sounds more like a .200 to me.
Both are far below average. You'd expect the combination to be way below average.
Kinda sounds like Major Leagues to me... Loria wants to move the team (ironicaly) out of Florida so he sells the team and fills it with unknown rookies and a vet pitcher (D-T).
Like all the NL teams in the race, they have a chance... but I think I found my horse in this race.
Except that I doubt Sanchez' "true" BA allowed is that low. Going forward, given his unimpressive K rate, I'd expect the BA against him to be much higher than that - like perhaps even .260 or so.