Baseball Musings: Breakdown, Shakedown

December 10, 2006

Breakdown, Shakedown

Via Firebrand of the American League, it appears the Matsuzaka negotiations hit an iceberg:

Negotiations between the Red Sox [team stats] and Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka have essentially broken down, a source familiar with the talks said late last night, adding that unless there is an abrupt change of course, Matsuzaka will not be signing with the Red Sox before Thursday's midnight deadline. Attempts to reach Matsuzaka's agent, Scott Boras, were unsuccessful last night. However, the well-placed source blamed Boras for stubbornly being unable to get over the flaws in the Japanese posting system, saying that he has been unwilling to negotiate and that he has acted disinterested in even making a deal.

Now, if I remember correctly from the Theo-Red Sox negotiations last year, the Herald uses Epstein or people close to Epstein as sources, while the Globe uses Lucchino's people. So this is probably coming from the GM in an effort to get Boras to move. Scott, however, will wait until the last minute to see just how much he can get. It's a cat and mouse game right now, and the one piece of information we don't have is the level of Matsuzaka's desire to play in the United States. If he's told Boras he wants to play in the Major Leagues no matter what, then the Red Sox just need to wait. If he's willing to go back to Japan, then Boston needs to get closer to what he wants. We'll all know late Thursday. The Boston Globe is counting down the hours here.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:55 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I'm just miffed at how the Sox will spend $14mil/year on Drew... but not on a guy like Matsuzaka. Miffed!

Posted by: Nat at December 10, 2006 01:52 PM

Thinking about it, absolutely everyone looks like an idiot & a jack@ss if they don't get this done. Theo, Boras, DMat, everyone. I'm gonna bank on that. This is just posturing and it has to get done.

Posted by: Nat at December 10, 2006 04:09 PM

Don't panic, everyone. This'll get done. Someone, Luchino or Boras, is leaking rumors to gain leverage on contract negotiations, but the deal will get done. Matsuzaka has been very upfront about wanting to come to the US, the Lions want the cash, the Sox want the pitcher, and Boras doesn't want to screw up his chances of representing future clients in the Japanese baseball league.

Posted by: iowadave at December 10, 2006 04:28 PM

I can't fathom that this doesn't happen. Theres just too much to be gained from it. That said, the interests of Seibu and Matsuzaka himself are almost inconsequential. Boras is negotiating for himself and his future clients. He has no qualms about ruining Matsuzaka's payday because he knows the paydays for other Japanese players in the future will more than cover that if he sets the market correctly, which is what he's trying to do. I wouldn't be surprised if he just didn't return the Sox' calls at all for the first three weeks.

Posted by: mattymatty at December 10, 2006 05:03 PM

Don't know that there's a huge amount of pressure on the Sox to make a deal. Worst-case scenario is the Sox not spending a dime and Matsuzaka not pitching for the Yankees.

Well, double worst-case (is that possible?) is Drew bombing out this season. Maybe triple-worst is Manny suddenly declining at age 35, or Schilling at age 40.

Quadruple-worst is slipping another notch and finishing fourth in the division. Which is probably out of the question, though the Red Sox have gone backwards in a hurry. Their run diffs over the past three years: +181, +105, -5. The team has tumbled from great to good to league-average. But the Orioles and Rays are so bad that it's hard to see the Sox slipping further down the standings.

Posted by: Casey Abell at December 10, 2006 05:05 PM

Re: the countdown clock, you need to remember that he has to be signed and pass his physical before that time, or so it has been reported by the herald and other sources.

As for it getting done? Don't be surpised if Boras convinces Matsuzaka that it is better to go back to the Lions. Boras hates the posting system and what Boras hates Boras destroys.

Posted by: Wayne at December 10, 2006 05:43 PM

This will get done, it's all posturing. Not a doubt in my mind. Too much at stake for both parties. My guess is he gets 12 mil a year.

Posted by: Ryan at December 10, 2006 07:14 PM

Well, it probably *is* better for Matsuzaka if he goes back to the Lions. I mean, he'll surely get more money as a free agent, right? If the Sox are willing right now to spend $92 million for four years of Matsuzaka, then he can wait a year and get all of it instead of splitting it 40-50 with Seibu.

I'm not at all convinced this deal gets made. The only really big loser if it falls apart is Seibu. And they no longer have a say in it.

Posted by: Jamie at December 10, 2006 07:22 PM

"Well, it probably *is* better for Matsuzaka if he goes back to the Lions. I mean, he'll surely get more money as a free agent, right? If the Sox are willing right now to spend $92 million for four years of Matsuzaka, then he can wait a year and get all of it instead of splitting it 40-50 with Seibu."

2 years. He can't become a FA until after the 2008 season. I don't know why nobody seems to understand this...

Posted by: the other josh at December 10, 2006 08:03 PM

I actually don't think the Red Sox come out that badly if they don't sign him. They've already offered $51.5 million for the posting fee, and likely another $50 million for say 5 years. If nothing happens and Theo says at a press conference that they couldn't go over $100 million for a 5 year deal, I'd certainly understand. Then again, I'm not the average knucklehead Sox fan (I hope!).

The only better thing would be if Schmidt was still available. Then they could have taken the $51.5 million refund check and spent it on 3 years of Schmidt.

Posted by: Mike at December 10, 2006 08:57 PM

Other Josh - he has to go back to Seibu for 2 years, not one.

So by that logic, Seibu COULD be fine with him coming back given that they'll probably make more than $51.1 in a second round (but I'm guessing they need the cash now, given their financial situation). Matsuzaka's probably not going to want to wait another year to sign any endorsement deals he has lined up... Honestly, you can't walk away from this situation if you're him. That'd be pulling a Nomar.

Posted by: Nat at December 10, 2006 09:18 PM

No, you're mistaken. He becomes a free agent in May 2008. See for example
http://tinyurl.com/y77e6l

Posted by: Jamie at December 10, 2006 09:23 PM

I agree that the Sox don't come out that badly if they don't sign him. I mean, compared to now giving Matsuzaka a 3 year, $45 million deal, failing to sign him is okay. They can try again next year.
I don't believe the bidding will go anywhere near so high next year. For one thing, it will be much too easy for Matsuzaka to hold out, since he only loses eight weeks by holding out next year. That means the right to negotiate isn't as valuable. Second, when it becomes clear that posting $50 mil leaves the team with too little to pay the player, the bids will be more realistic. That's what makes sense, anyway, and I expect that's what will happen.

Though I still put it at better than even odds that the deal is done this week. Just not *much* better.

Posted by: Jamie at December 10, 2006 09:30 PM

The Sox need to lock this guy up and they will at the last second of course...if Gil Meche makes 11 mil and Andy Pettitte's corpse makes 16 mil and Matsuzaka is the best pitcher on the planet...logic tells you that he deserves to make well over 8 million per year. he would be an awesome addition to an already talented young staff (papelbon, beckett, perhaps lester).

Posted by: Ryan at December 10, 2006 11:23 PM

Why don't you make it so that when we click on a link it opens in a new window? I have a short attention span and once I click away from your page I don't always remember to go back to it. This is basic blogger know-how, unless of course you are just getting more hits like that...

Posted by: Vincent at December 11, 2006 12:26 AM

@mattymatty

Dude, would you please start thinking before you type. Aren't you the same guy who told us Drew was a righty batter?

And then we get this piece of wisdom:
"I wouldn't be surprised if [Boras] just didn't return the Sox' calls at all for the first three weeks."

Ummm, weren't they making a deal for a "right-handed" bat during those three weeks w/ Boras? Who do you think negotiated that deal?

Posted by: mateo at December 11, 2006 12:57 AM

"Why don't you make it so that when we click on a link it opens in a new window? I have a short attention span and once I click away from your page I don't always remember to go back to it. This is basic blogger know-how, unless of course you are just getting more hits like that..."

And basic browser know-how is that if you hold ctrl while you click the link, it'll open in a new tab (if you're using Mozilla or the new IE).

Posted by: the other josh at December 11, 2006 02:15 AM

@mattymatty

Dude, would you please start thinking before you type. Aren't you the same guy who told us Drew was a righty batter?

And then we get this piece of wisdom:
"I wouldn't be surprised if [Boras] just didn't return the Sox' calls at all for the first three weeks."

Ummm, weren't they making a deal for a "right-handed" bat during those three weeks w/ Boras? Who do you think negotiated that deal?

Posted by: mateo at December 11, 2006 02:51 AM

Post a comment

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Takkle High School Sports

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

The Bronx View A blog and podcast about the Yankees.

Jorge Says No A blog about the Yankees.

Ivy League to MLB Shawn Haviland blogs about his efforts to rise through the Oakland Athletics system.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Rookie Cards Baseball Card grading.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.