Squawking Baseball thinks you should take the over on the Nationals:

At least if you go by the Vegas over/unders, which have the Nats winning 68.5 games. I'll take the over on that, as will PECOTA, which has them a surprisingly robust (if still mediocre) 80-82.

The Nationals definitely have a couple things going for them, including a field manager who actually knows what he's doing. Washington has so many moving parts, and so much excess at certain positions, that having someone like Manny Acta to sort it all out is a major plus.

This prediction also depends on some of their players turning around bad seasons. In the case of Lastings Milledge and Ryan Zimmerman, however, I'm starting to believe they're more hype than actually good. We'll see.

Last spring I used the Lineup Analysis Tool to predict how many runs per game teams would score during the season. Marcel the Monkey forecasts for OBA and Slug were entered for the likely starting lineup for each team. I promised to revisit the data, and here how the predictions compare to actual team runs per game:

Runs per game, 2008

Team	Predicted Runs Scored	Actual Runs Scored
NYY	5.89	4.87
BOS	5.78	5.22
CLE	5.6	4.97
DET	5.58	5.07
TB	5.45	4.78
CHW	5.29	4.98
TEX	5.28	5.56
LAA	5.2	4.72
ATL	5.18	4.65
PHI	5.15	4.93
OAK	5.14	4.01
BAL	5.12	4.86
TOR	5.1	4.41
COL	5.1	4.61
NYM	4.98	4.93
MIL	4.97	4.63
CHC	4.92	5.31
MIN	4.87	5.09
SEA	4.87	4.14
HOU	4.84	4.42
LAD	4.84	4.32
KC	4.82	4.27
STL	4.76	4.81
FLA	4.64	4.78
CIN	4.6	4.35
SD	4.57	3.93
ARZ	4.51	4.44
PIT	4.48	4.54
WSH	4.44	3.98
SF	3.99	3.95

The correlation is 0.61, which is a bit better than random but not great. Oakland was the biggest outlier on the downside, while Cubs had the biggest upside from the prediction.

Here's the data in graphical form (click graph for a larger image).

When I run the numbers this year, I'll include the result according to the regression equation. That should give us a somewhat more realistic view of a team's offense, since the projected starting lineup never plays every inning of every game.

Cameron Martin posts the PECOTA standings for 2009. It sure looks like a lousy year is in store for fans. Six teams win 90 games, but three of them are in the AL East. The rest of the American League stinks, including the division winners in the Central and West.

The NL East dominates as well, with no close pennant races and a tie for the wild card. I sure hope the season doesn't play out this way.

However, it's a little early to be looking at projections. There are still a number of team changing free agents on the market. If I'm in charge of one of the teams listed on the edge of a division here, I'm getting on the phone to see who I can land.

Nationals Enquirer posts the latest World Series odds. Given the long shots in the list, I'd bet on Seattle at 100/1. The AL West is wide open, and some bounce back years by their pitching staff could make a difference.

Razzball looks at the effect a high volume of pitches has on success the next season.

Just when you thought there would be no more cutely named prediction systems, the men at Walk off Walk come up with the BONILLAs, Based On Nothing Interesting, Let's Look At Age. They group players by age and take an amusing look at the major players in those groups. Today they start with the 35 year olds.

Sean Casey, 1B: Often noted as the nicest guy in the game. So nice he refuses to make pitchers feel bad by hitting home runs. Hasn't hit more than 9 in a season since 2004. Unemployed at press time.

They do a good and entertaining job of summing up players in a nutshell.

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog is running simulations of 2009, and the Yankees are coming out seven games better than any other team in baseball. Also, the Indians, Tigers and Rockies all rebound nicely from their down 2008 seasons, and the AL West is bad but very competitive.

Joey Matschulat uses the Lineup Analysis tool to get a handle on the Rangers 2009 lineup.

I just plugged the 2009 Bill James projections for the Yankees into the Lineup Analysis tool. The best lineup comes out at 5.92 runs, the worst lineup at 5.56 runs, and the lineup listed in the ESPN article at 5.82. That kind of offense should win Sabathia and Burnett a lot of games.

The Chone Projections have a new home.

Jack Curry talks with Jay Rood about the way sports books set World Series odds:

Rood said that two consulting services provided MGM Mirage with an endless flow of information and that he also received insight from his casino managers and supervisors in establishing odds. There are numerous factors that determine a baseball team's odds, including, of course, how it performed last season, how its players are expected to do in the new season and what kind of players it has added. Before Rood sets or revises a team's odds, he has digested details from about 50 associates.

In addition, Rood explained how the amount of money that was bet on a team also impacted the odds. The casino wants to make money, but it also does not want to lose too much money. So, if there is a lot of action on a particular team to win the World Series, Rood will lower its odds to balance the betting.

"Let the public bet the way they want to bet," Rood said. "I'll set our position on what's best for the company and scout the little percentage we want to operate on. If you go in wanting to hit home runs left and right, you might have a short career at this."

The Pirates are the long shots this year at 150-1.

The Marcel the Monkey projections are now available at The Book Blog.

Tom Tango responds to Joe Sheehan's reaction to game 5 of the ALCS. The game made Joe wonder if chemistry is really out there, and Tom proposes a way to find out.

I hope people who believe in chemistry take Tom up on the offer. It would be cool to get a result, and imagine if they actually show chemistry and momentum exist!

Here were my predictions going into the LDS:

• Rays, 65%
• Angels, 55%
• Cubs, 65%
• Phillies, 75%

So my expected outcome was to get 2.6 right. The actual outcome was 2.2. Still better than 50%, but not great.

The current odds at The Hardball Times show both League Championship Series close to a tossup.

The Hardball Times rates four projection systems for 2008. Where's Marcel?

I'm afraid these four series are not going to be very competitive, and the latest odds posted at the Hardball Times confirms my fears. All four trailing teams are below the 1 in 8 chance that an evenly match series would offer.

One of the disappointments of the baseball post season lately is the non-competitive nature of many of the series. In the last four years, only two LDS series went five games, and none since 2005.

LDS, 2004-2007

Result	Number of Series	Prediction (evenly matched)
Sweep	8	4
3-1	6	6
3-2	2	6

So while three division and the wild card are producing more interest in the regular season, that alignment is also producing lopsided playoff results.

Update: Just to be complete, there is a 25% chance of a sweep in an evenly matched five game series. The chances of at least eight sweeps in sixteen series is .027.

The Hardball Times presents a new feature in which they post playoff odds every day. I find it interesting that despite losing a game, the Angels still have a better chance of winning the World Series than the Chicago White Sox.

From now on I'm predicting every team tied at the end of the regular season.

Vegas Watch ranks the pre-season predictions. I'm glad mine were not included. :-)

Update: I did temper my AL East prediction correctly.

The one thing that could change everything is age. While the Yankees and Red Sox are working in youth, they still carry a number of older players. Boston signed Lowell, and the Yankees brought back Posada and Rivera for a few more years, on top of the long term A-Rod contract. While I don't expect any of these players to fade in 2008, the possibility exists that it could happen. What if Drew and Ramirez don't rebound, but find their 2007 declines were real? What if all those years catching catches up to Posada? What if injuries keep accruing to Matsui and Damon?

The Toronto Blue Jays brought in Rolen and Eckstein, but they might be subject to the same ravages of age, along with Zaun. This is where the young Rays have a chance. Almost everyone on the Rays is likely to play better this season. That, and a massive age attack in the other three cities could put Tampa Bay on top. Let's say I don't put a high probability value on the above standings. It's an exciting division where anything can happen.

Ian O'Connor notes Brian Cashman saw the Rays coming:

The words of the prophet are written in black and white and scheduled to be preserved in the archives of the Tampa Tribune. In the September 28, 2007 editions of that newspaper, Brian Cashman warned of a gathering American League East threat.

...

"They have, obviously, as good a group of young position players as anyone in the game. Pitching is coming into their system that a lot of people like, too. They're not far. If a couple of things go their way, it could happen a lot sooner than people realize.

"It's not going to be a situation where they add 10 wins next year and 10 more the year after that. It's not going to be slow. When it happens, it will happen quick. Now. That growing stuff is behind them now. It's going to come fast."

He must have ESP(n).

A week ago I looked at the probability of Chipper Jones hitting .400 for the season based on what he already accomplished, and posted a spreadsheet for future calculations. Last Thursday the probability stood at .000095. Chipper is still well over .400 at .418. He went 9 for 18 on the week with five walks. He's lowered his expected AB for the season to 562 from 585. The fewer AB Chipper gets, the easier it is for him to hit .400. That raises the probability of him hitting 400 for the season to .0004, or about four times higher than last week.

Update: Chipper singled in his first at bat today, raising his batting average to .422.

Update: Jones now 2 for 2 and batting .425. The Braves lead the Brewers 1-0 in the fourth.

The Rays current winning percentage (.560) would yield ninety one wins over a 162 game schedule. I believe Baseball Prospectus predicted eighty eight wins for the team this season, CHONE 89. So far, so good.

Vegas Watch sends along a nice bit of research on weighting PECOTA predictions with Pythagorean projections to predict final standings. It shows Cleveland and Detroit rising to the top of the AL Central, and the Cubs winning with a nice cushion in the NL Central.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants start the season with a seasonal age 23 shortstop who never played above A ball and can't hit a lick. I suppose that's better than starting the season with an almost 41 year old shortstop that can't hit a lick. When you go around the Giants team, you find players who never hit or can't hit any more. Aaron Rowand takes Barry Bonds' place as the best offensive player on the team, but he's coming off a career year and is likely to regress. I would not be at all surprised if this turned out to be the lowest scoring team in the majors in 2008. They don't get on base, they don't hit for power, and I doubt they'll even have much of a batting average.

The pitching staff, unlike the position players, is young and talented. Cain, Correia and Lincecum all posted good numbers in 2007, and on a team with a decent offense they might each win 15 to 20 games. The best they can hope for in 2007 is good luck in close games.

Barry Zito remains a question mark. He turned in the highest ERA of his career as his strikeout rate continued to deteriorate. Barry posted awful numbers this spring as well, although that needs to be taken with a big grain of salt. This may go down as one of the worst pitcher signings, although it will be tough to beat Carl Pavano. What's worse, paying a pitcher a lot of money not to pitch, or to have him pitch badly?

I don't see the Giants competing with the other teams in the NL West. One hundred losses is a real possibility here.

San Diego Padres

There's a huge dichotomy between the Padres infield and outfield. Gonzalez, Iguchi, Greene and Kouzmanoff are all good players with upside at first, third and short. The outfield represents a huge question mark, however. Giles is old, Headley is young, and Edmonds is injured. Put that infield with two power corners and a good defensive centerfielder, and you have a pretty good team. Maybe some of that will happen. Headley's been sent down to AAA for a month to finish learning to play left. Supposedly Giles is healthy for the first time in a while and his power is coming back. Great seasons by those two would go a long way toward bring this club back to the playoffs.

They may not need that many runs anyway. Jake Peavy, Chris Young are great at the front of the rotation, and the back of the rotation is supported by a fine bullpen. That especially helps Maddux, who still pitches well but can't go deep into games anymore. The wild card is the oft injured Mark Prior. If he can work his way back into form my mid season, he'll provide a pitching boost to the team.

Right now, however, the question marks outweigh the certainty. With the outfield in shambles, it's tough to give the Padres as many wins as they earned last season. Right now, they look like a .500 team to me.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are a really good team that could be an even better team. They're certainly good enough to win the division, and with Kemp and Loney getting to play every day we should see an improvement in the team. The CBS Sportsline depth chart is now showing Ethier as the number one left fielder. That means only one of the two centerfielders they signed over the last two winters will play. If that's true, Torre is making the right move. Good for Joe.

With all the injuries at third base, the Dodgers are going young there as well as twenty two year old Blake Dewitt gets the assignment. His minor league batting numbers aren't anything great, but he looked like he could field his position against the Red Sox Saturday night. It's a golden opportunity for Blake to show he belongs in the big leagues.

The Dodgers rotation remains solid one through four, but the five spot as filled by Loaiza represents a big hole. If Esteban continues to pitch poorly, there must be some competent starter in the Dodgers organization who is capable of a sub-5.00 ERA.

I see this team with wins in the high 80s. My guess is the play of the youngsters will determine if they win the division or not.

Colorado Rockies

A good team usually sends out two great players, and surrounds them with a good supporting lineup. The Rockies send out three great players and surround them with two more who are close. Colorado returns five position players with at least twenty win shares. Holliday, Tulowitzki and Helton posted 30, 25, and 24 win shares respectively, while Hawpe and Atkins added 22 and 20. They keep mixing in new players, too, as Nix takes over at second, and an even better second baseman develops in the minors. If Chris Ianetta develops as a hitter this season, the Rockies might score even more runs than last season.

The pitching also looks to improve with youngsters. Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales move into the rotation full time, joining Francis and Cook. It's a mostly young team that's already good with most of their players at their peak. There's no reason they can't contend again in 2008. The fifth starter is a problem as Hirsh remains hurt, but all three contenders in this division face that same problem.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The addition of Dan Haren gives the Diamondbacks depth to a decent 2007 rotation. Webb was great, but there was over a run increase in ERA after the ace. That should change with Haren. On top of that, Randy Johnson looked good this spring, and he'll come off the disabled list soon to take over the third starter slot. That should give the Diamondbacks the top top of the rotation in the division.

Unfortunately, Arizona is going to lose Doug Davis' services due to thyroid cancer surgery. That puts the fifth slot into the hands of Edgar Gonzalez. Despite his high ERA, Gonzalez found his control in 2007, walking 28 in 102 innings. If he can repeat that ratio, he'll be fine.

The offense is a year older, and for most players in the lineup that means a year better. Justin Upton gets a full season to show what he can do. Stephen Drew disappointed in his first full season, but at age 25 he should be hitting his stride. Jackson, Reynolds, Young and Snyder should all be on the upswing of their careers.

This is definitely a better team than won the division in 2007. The front office realized that their record indicated a bit of luck, and fought against standing pat. They'll be a legitimate contender for the title in 2008.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division finishing:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

The first three teams are very close. Arrange them in any order you like, I just feel Arizona did the most to improve their team over the off season. The first four teams are likely to put the curvature of the earth between them and the Giants. It's good division, especially if you like great pitching.

This is the last day of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Won't you donate $1?

Cardinals

This is a sad team. Not two years removed from their World Championship, St. Louis looks like a team scraped from the scrap heap. Even their great players are questionable. Albert Pujols's elbow is hanging together by a thread. If it blows, the Cardinals offense goes down with it. One reason for the Troy Glaus move was to take his foot off artificial turf. He did hit well this spring, so that's a positive sign. The other power hitter in the lineup is a converted pitcher. This is easily the worst set of position players in the division even with Pujols.

When it comes to the rotation, Adam Wainwright looks like the real deal, but like Albert on offense, there's not much behind him. Is the Cardinals minor league system that barren that they need to use a converted reliever and Kyle Lohse?

This team is not going to score runs, they are not going to prevent runs, they're simply going to lose. This could the worst team Cardinals have seen since 1995.

Reds

About two weeks ago I previewed the Reds during the Baseball Musings radio show and didn't like the fact that they were going with veterans over youth. Since then, however, they've been forced to include Edinson Volquez in the rotation due to an injury to Matt Belisle. So the move that bothers me now is starting the disappointing Corey Patterson over the young and upcoming Jay Bruce.

This looks like a very good pitching staff. Harang and Arroyo are as good as any one-two pitching combination in the division. With Cueto and Volquez following, the Reds could have a good chance to win on four out of every five days. If Bailey starts well in the minors, he might move in to replace the Dragonslayer Josh Fogg, giving the Reds a potentially spectacular rotation. Of course, young pitching can break your heart. Until Cueto, Volquez and Bailey prove they are for real in the majors, the Reds rotation should be considered just okay.

The offense is a question mark as well. The good players on the offense are low level good. Compare them to the Phillies, who sport four players who earned over 20 win shares in 2007. The Reds best four (Dunn, Phillips, Encarnacion and Griffey) are in the high teens, with only Dunn over 20. So at the moment, there is no superstar hitting on the Reds, just a few very good players.

That might change if Votto can become the slugging first baseman the Reds have lacked for so long. Otherwise, I don't see the Reds doing that well. The pitching is good, but they'll need Dunn and Griffey to be the Dunn and Griffey of old to have a shot at the division.

Astros

The Houston Astros brought in a new manager, new general manager, and wholesale changes to the team. How much of a difference it makes isn't clear. Miguel Tejada was the big prize, but that depends on whether 2007 was an off year or the start of a career slide for the shortstop. Berkman, Lee and Pence, however, give the Astros three great hitters in the middle of the lineup. Michael Bourn is a bit of a wild card. At 25 years old, he should be entering his prime. When he was in the low minors, he posted impressive OBAs, but hasn't kept that up as he climbed to the majors. All-in-all, it's not a bad offense, although I'm curious to see how well Kaz Matsui does away from Coors.

The rotation suffers the same problem as last year. Roy Oswalt gives them one of the best starters in the league, but there's little behind him. Backe returns from injury and the terrible Woody Williams is gone. The offense is going to need to score a lot of runs for these pitchers to win.

Jose Valverde takes over the closer role for Houston. Lately, closing for the Astros has been like drumming for Spinal Tap. Let's hope Jose fares better.

Like most of the teams in the NL Central, this is a decent team with big holes. They're not likely to win the division, but it's so close anything can happen.

Pirates

I'm somewhat surprised that I like this Pirates team compared the other four also rans in this division. It's not that they have anyone great on the team, but almost all of the players are decent. The projected starting eight all posted over ten wins shares each in 2007. Snell and Gorezelanny are competent starters and Capps is a good closer.

I suspect Jack Wilson won't post 19 win shares again, but I also might expect better performances from Bay, Sanchez and McLouth. It's one of those teams that can fool you. They've been bad so long that they must be bad again, except that somehow they've put a decent player at each position. If you drop a couple of superstars in this lineup, you'd like this team a lot. In this division, .500 and third place would not surprise me at all.

The new management of the team appears to be doing a good job of demanding better from the team. The previous group talked a good game but never delivered. We'll see if this GM and manager can bring about some changes.

Cubs

Barbara Feldon. Camp bus songs. Nena. The number of seasons the Cubs played since their last championship. Yes, 2008 could be the 100th season of futility for the team from Wrigley. They won't go down without a fight, however. The NL Central champs return a team with a good offense, bolstered by their addition of Kosuke Fukudome. He looked like an OBA machine in the spring, drawing 15 walks to lead all spring training players. He'll joining a solid core of Lee, Ramirez and Soriano. Youngsters Soto and Pie should also contribute more than in 2007, while Mark DeRosa is the only player likely to see a falloff in his batting stats.

Pitching, however, was the Cubs great strength last season. The additions of Lilly and Marquis worked out better than expected, as Ted turned into a fine number two starter. Rich Hill doubled his innings from 2006 while maintaining his great strikeout and walk numbers while cutting down on his home runs allowed. Ryan Dempster moves from the pen to the rotation this season to round out the best rotation in the division.

That's a good move for two reasons. Dempster wasn't a great closer last year, and Kerry Wood is healthy and ready to mow down batters again. There's a huge upside potential for Kerry here, and the Cubs can gain some wins with this move. Will it be enough to repeat over a very good Brewers team, however?

Brewers

Milwaukee's lineup looks monstrous. The addition of Mike Cameron gives them four players who earned over twenty win shares in 2007. Ryan Braun did it in a partial season, so there's plenty of upside in his bat. The move to left takes away the downside of his defense and makes the team better in the that department overall. Hardy was close with nineteen win shares, and a better Rickie Weeks might hit twenty as well. This is still a young team, and so most of the arrows point up for better hitting.

There are up arrows in the rotation as well. A healthy Ben Sheets is among the best in the game. A full season from Gallardo would help as well, although he starts the year on the disabled list. Manny Para looks like the real deal, so this Brewers rotation should serve as a nice complement to their powerful offense.

There may be some problems at the end of the game, depending on whether the Texas Gagne or the Boston Gagne shows up in the ninth. If the offense and starting pitching turns out to be as good as they look right now, the Brewers will play a good number of blow outs, and the closer's role becomes less important. This is a very strong Milwaukee team is a relatively week division. While they still have something to prove, there's a good chance that the runaway start of 2007 doesn't fade in 2008, and Milwaukee wins the division easily.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division standing at the end of the season:

1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Pirates
4. Astros
5. Reds
6. Cardinals

You can pretty much interchange 3-4-5 in any order and get a reasonable set of standings. This division should be the Brewers for the taking. If Yost fails to win with a healthy version of this team, Milwaukee should really look for another manager.

Florida Marlins

The chance of the Marlins losing over 100 games stands very high. The starting rotation might be one of the worst I've ever seen. Andrew Miller might be good this year, or he might need another year or two to develop. Henderickson is just bad. He's had a chance to prove he can pitch in the majors and failed. Olsen pitched poorly in 2007, as did Vanden Hurk. Nolasco is trying to come back from an injury. There's not a lot of upside on the mound.

The offense at least boasts Hanley Ramirez, an MVP candidate in 2007. But outside of Willingham and Uggla, there is no one else who contributes that many wins. The replacement of Cabrera with Cantu should cost the Marlins about nine games off the 71 they won in 2007. With just a terrible team, 62 wins is going to be an optimistic goal for the team.

Washington Nationals

Washington Trots out a backward rotation this season. Lannan is projected to post the best ERA, but he's been temporarily sent to the minors. Chico is projected to pitch the most innings, and he's the fourth starter. The two best Washington pitchers from 2007, Redding and Hill are nursing injuries. They'll start Odalis Perez to open their new ballpark. Perez's 2007 ERA: 5.57. Still they'll probably perform better than the Marlins.

The offense isn't great, but there's room for optimism here. Nick Johnson takes over at first base. Manny Acta seems to be committed to putting the players with the best OBAs on the field, and Johnson does that very well. It would be easy to give Young the position and make Nick earn it, but Acta wants the selectivity in the lineup. Dukes and Milledge represent the Washington version of Moneyball. They pick up "problem" players cheaply. It worked with Dmitri Young last year. If it works in 2008, the Nationals might end up at the high end of their win expectation, between 70 and 75 wins.

Manny Acta and Fredi Gonzalez make for an interesting pair of managers to watch. Both came into the league the same year, both from coaching other AL East teams. Acta did a good job getting the most from his players, while Gonzalez seemed to let the Marlins slip into mediocrity. We'll see how both perform this season.

Atlanta Braves

Some are predicting the Braves to make the playoffs, but I just don't see it. Their offense is good, but not as good as either the Mets or the Phillies. The rotation is a bit better than the Phillies, but nowhere near as good as the Mets. On top of that, the rotation is old. Smoltz already suffered an injury and starts the season on the disabled list. Glavine just isn't very good anymore. Hampton missed the last two seasons recovering from injuries. Even Tim Hudson is over 30, and age when pitchers need to adjust to falling velocity. There's just a lot that can go wrong there.

Jair Jurrjens should be fun to watch, however. He's the prize for trading Edgar Renteria, and he makes the team as the fifth starter. He also keeps a representative from the Netherlands Antilles on the squad. He's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park during his minor league career.

The Braves are building a strong team up the middle. McCann, Johnson and Escobar are the start of a young core that can contribute to the Braves for many years. They just need to find a centerfielder to go with them. Otherwise, this is really a corner offensive team, with most of the runs coming from Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur. This team should win games somewhere in the mid 80s, but that won't be enough for the division. With the close wild card races, it's possible if the Brave can get to 89 wins they might find the post season.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies field the best offensive team in the NL East. All eight position players earned at least 12 win shares in 2007, with the big four of Utley, Rollins, Howard and Burrell collecting over 20 each. The Phillies have more than their share of superstars, coupled with good complementary hitters. There's no huge holes in the Phillies batting order. With the best players being relatively young, there's not much danger of a big fall off in production, either.

The rotation, however, contains some question marks. Hamels stands as a legitimate ace, but Brett Myers is making the transition back to the starting rotation. If he returns to his form of 2005-2006, that's a great 1-2 punch in the rotation. Jamie Moyer is old and fading. He doesn't have to be great, but at some point, three runs in six innings might turn into four, and then his value on this high scoring team goes way down. Adam Eaton is pretty close to useless.

Kyle Kendrick presents an interesting paradox. Kendrick neither walk nor strikes out batters, allowing a ton of balls in play. That usually leads to more hits, but the Phillies were very good last season at turning batted balls into outs behind Kyle. PMR shows that the balls in play against Kendrick were easy to field as well. So Kendrick may be a pitcher who doesn't fool batters enough to get a swing and a miss, but fools them enough that they don't get good wood on the ball. If this is a real talent, he's in good shape. If it's just that hitters haven't figured him out, he's in trouble.

At the other end of the game, Lidge went on the disabled list and Tom Gordon takes over the closer duties. Maybe we'll see Myers back there before the season is over. I see the Phillies winning in the high eighties and having a good shot at the division and wild card.

New York Mets

If you list Pedro Martinez with his two win shares from 2007, the Mets starting rotation still collected the most win shares among all the teams in the NL East. If you assume Pedro is healthy and can pitch like he did at the end of the season, fifteen win shares is not out of the question, and the Mets staff blows away the other four teams. On top of that, the Mets offense is just a few win shares behind the Phillies. They could even be better if Carlos Delgado rebounds from an off year.

The back of the Mets rotation is where they really shine, however. John Maine and Oliver Perez each posted eleven win shares in 2007. No other rotation shows a 3,4 or 5 starter cracking double digits. Maine may not have reached his peak, however, and we could see him move up this season. If Perez retains the improvements of last season, the Mets rotation will be one to rival the best Braves rotations of the 1990s.

The Mets should win the division, easily if indeed Pedro remains healthy. Of course, this was true last March as well.

Predictions

Here's how I see the NL East finishing:

1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

I don't see much chance of a surprise from the bottom two teams. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are close enough that injuries or a surprise career year could easily rearrange the top three. It should be a fun, three way race, or at least a two way race for the wild card if the Mets turn out to be as good as I believe they can be.

Correction: Fixed the name of the Nationals. My strat team is the Washington Senators. They're off to an 8-0 start and I got confused.

Kansas City Royals

I expect an improved team in Kansas City this season. Butler, Teahen and Gordon are a year older and more experienced. Jose Guillen adds some pop to the outfield. Zack Grienke gained control of his demons and pitched very well at the end of 2007, while Brian Bannister may be the most sabermetrically fluent pitcher in the game.

Still, there are a number of negatives. Tony Pena is an offensive black hole at shortstop. The back of the rotation offers very little; they're going to keep the bullpen busy. Mark Grudzielanek keeps getting playing time over Esteban German.

The X-Factor on this team is Trey Hillman. He did wonders for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and I've liked everything I've seen from him in spring training. The talent is there to compete with the Twins and possibly the White Sox. If Hillman can work his magic, and third place finish is a possibility for this squad. The main thing for Royals fans to realize is that this team is moving in the right direction.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins lost a good outfielder and a great pitcher over the winter. They may end up replacing the pitcher with Francisco Liriano. He's progressed well this spring, although he'll start the season in the minors to build his strength a bit more. They may have replaced the outfielder with Delmon Young. All that does, however, is keep them even with 2007, a season in they finished four games under .500.

The number one starter spot goes to Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is capable of pitching a high number of innings if you don't mind his giving up lots of runs. The Twins may need those innings to save the bullpen, however, as the rest of the rotation is very young, and even when Liriano returns Minnesota is likely to baby him. That will put pressure on a good bullpen. If they get burnt out, this team could go into a free fall.

I don't like the whole left side of the field, however. Lamb, Everett and Monroe just don't generate a lot of wins, leaving a lot of the hope of winning on the backs of Mauer and Morneau. If Mauer stays healthy, he should play better than in 2007, but Morneau slipped from his 2006 MVP year.

The Twins at best should finish about the same at last year, but I could easily see them falling to seventy wins in 2008.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are the best of the three also rans in this division. With Dye, Konerko and Thome, the team is still capable of generating offense. The additions of Swisher and Orland Cabrera improves the team up the middle, as the White Sox received little from short and center in 2007. If Carlos Quentin matures into a good hitter this season, the White Sox are going to do well in scoring runs.

Unfortunately, the decided to go with veterans over youth at second and third. I'm not sure how much difference it really makes to the team, but I'd rather gamble on the upside of Fields and Richar than stick with the predictable okayness of Crede and Uribe.

The pitching staff is fine at the top with Buehrle and Vazquez. Only the Indians have a better 1-2 punch in terms of 2007 win shares from those spots in the rotation. But for this team to do well, they'll need Danks and Floyd to develop into first rate starters.

The White Sox did improve the team, and I could easily see them winning 81 games this season. That, however, won't be enough for them to win the division.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers easily boast the best offense in the division. The lowest 2007 win share total for one of their nine batters was 13 by Ivan Rodriguez. Cabrera and Ordonez each generated at least 30, and two other were over 20. When Granderson returns, this is a lineup without holes.

On top of that, the trade for Renteria improves offense at first and defense at shortstop, without losing that much offense at the latter position. Renteria should be be able to make up for some of the range lost on the left side of the infield with Cabrera replacing Inge.

When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, everyone marveled at their pitching. The promise of that young staff faded in two years, however. Justin Verlander is rightfully the ace of the staff, but Jeremy Bonderman remains a frustrating player. At times he pitches brilliantly, but mistakes seem to prevent him from becoming truly great. Last year it was his problems in the first inning. Dontrelle Willis hasn't lived up to expectations either. One great season does not make a great pitcher. Now, given the Tigers' offense, they may not need these two to be great to win. If Bonderman and Willis shine, however, the Tigers should take the Central easily.

The one big concern on this team is injuries to the bullpen. With Rodney and Zumaya both on the shelf, teams might be able to score some runs in the seventh and eighth innings. It's another reason Willis and Bonderman need to get off to good starts, so they can go deep in games until the pen is healthy again.

This team should win over 90 games this year.

Cleveland Indians

Usually when a team fails to win the pennant, they look to fix the weak spots on their team. Cleveland, despite falling to Boston in the ALCS, decided their squad was fine as is and pretty much brings back the same players as in 2007. Asdrubal Cabrera gets to play full time this season. When the Indians place him at second in August they took off, running away with the division after that. Like Detroit, they own two 30 win share players in Martinez and Sizemore, but don't quite have the offensive depth of the Tigers. On the plus side, Travis Hafner should rebound from his below average 2007 season, which could boost the Indians offense a great deal.

While the Indians offense doesn't match Detroit's, no one comes close to Cleveland's starting pitching. Sabathia and Carmona each posted over 20 win shares in 2007. Westbrook and Bryd are decent back of the rotation pitchers, and Cliff Lee will try to show 2007 was a fluke. Cleveland can afford to have those three at the back of the rotation, because Sabathia and Carmona pitch so many innings, and they bullpen is really great. The Indians are one of the few teams I've seen where the middle relievers are better pitchers than the closer. The hurlers getting the game to Borowski all are strikeout artists, meaning the Indians can shorten game to as little as five innings if they can get the lead. I'm usually not big on bullpens. The small sample sizes of the pitchers make them tough to predict from year to year. Cleveland's pen, however, has the talent to make a real difference in the Central.

My main worry with this team is Fausto Carmona. His innings in 2007 went way up from 2006. He threw about 100 more innings over that previous season, and that's a warning sign for future injury.

Still, Cleveland remains a great team who should battle Detroit all year for the division title and everyone else in the league for the wild card.

Predictions

Here's my predicted order for the AL Central

1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City

I go back and forth on Cleveland and Detroit for the division, but right now the bullpens appear to be the deciding factor. It's very close however, maybe 51% Cleveland 49% Detroit. Kansas City and Minnesota should be competitive with each other. At this point, I assume that Liriano will pitch well, but if not, the Royals should finish fourth. I think it will be a good battle for third place with the White Sox, although don't expect any of these teams to be much above .500.

Dan McGowan invited me on his podcast to talk about the upcoming season. You can listen here.

Tim Daloisio is looking for people to take part in a wisdom of the crowds project to predict how Red Sox players will perform this year. The more people that participate, the better results he'll obtain.

Could this be the year another team challenges the Yankees and Red Sox for the top spot in the division? The AL East certainly looks like the best division in the AL. New York and Boston send out all-star lineups, very solid one through nine. The pitching on both teams features strengths, weaknesses and question marks. Toronto and Tampa Bay show strengths as well. This could turn out to be a very interesting division.

Baltimore Orioles

The easy prediction in this division puts the Orioles in last place. They project to have the worst offense and worst pitching staff in the AL East. The trades of Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada leave Orioles fans without a lot to enjoy on the major league level. Jeremy Guthrie, the play of Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, and the development of Adam Jones may be all they can cling to this summer.

Apart from those players, there's not much upside on this squad. Daniel Cabrera might fool us and find his control. That would make him a good pitcher and give the Orioles a chance to win 40% of the time. Otherwise, there's not much to expect from the older players on the team like Hernandez, Millar, Mora and Huff. Following the minor league system might be more rewarding.

Tampa Bay Rays

I didn't realize until I visited their MLB page today that not only did this team drop the name Devil, they dropped the whole fish motif. The Rays are now Rays of light, and you might say those rays mark the dawning of a new era in Tampa Bay.

Did you know that Kazmir and Shields combined for more win shares in 2007 (33) than Beckett and Matsuzaka (31), Halladay and Burnett (30) or Wang and Pettitte (30)? That's a pretty good 1-2 punch, and they are likely to get better. Kazmir starts the season on the disabled list, but a mid April return shouldn't hurt the team all that much. They add Matt Garza to the rotation which should be a plus. I'm very interested to see what Jason Hammel and Andy Sonnanstine do with a better defense behind them. The addition of Jason Bartlett replaces one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game with one of the best. That alone could make all these pitchers look a lot better.

The big story out of spring training was the demotion of Evan Longoria. In 42 spring at bats, he posted a .407 OBA and a .595 slugging percentage. Seven of his eleven hits went for extra bases. What's sad here is that the Rays are obviously making this move to delay Longoria's free agency clock and possibly his arbitration clock. Will a month without Longoria kill the Rays chances? Probably not, but if they miss the playoffs by a game or two, fans will remember this decision.

Even without Evan on the team early, the Rays show a lot of potential improvement on offense. Navarro, Gomes and Upton are young and have time to grow. A full season of Iwamura should help the team's OBA, as will playing time from Cliff Floyd. I suspect Carlos Pena will drop off a bit, but even a ten percent decline would still result in a great season.

The Rays dropped their Devil may care attitude and are walking toward the light. This may not be their year, but it should be the best year in franchise history.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto boasts the most solid pitching staff in the AL East. Granted, that depends on the continued health of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, but Toronto also sends out the three through five starters most likely to perform well in the division this season. I like Marcum's and Litsch's walk rates, and McGowan's strikeout rate. These three pitchers are capable of keeping the Blue Jays in every game. With a little run support, they'll be a very good back of the rotation.

That run support needs to come from a healthy Vernon Wells. While the Jays pitching looks to be the best in the division, the Jays offense isn't that far ahead of Baltimore. Even with a boost from Eckstein replacing McDonald at short and a healthy Wells and Overbay, this isn't a great hitting team. Rolen, Thomas, Stairs and Zaun are more likely to decline than improve. The pitching will need every run they can save to help this team win.

Boston Red Sox

When the Red Sox signed Bartolo Colon, I became aware that the Red Sox are skating on thin ice when it comes to their starting rotation. In 2007, the Red Sox supplemented their starting staff with great performances by Gabbard, Lester and Buchholz. Kason is now in Texas, while Jon and Clay moved into the rotation. With Schilling injured, the sixth pitcher becomes Julian Tavarez. It could turn out that Lester and Buchholz are great, but they are still young and inexperienced. They could easily run into rough spots.

Of course, Matsuzaka now has a year of major league experience under his belt. He's had a chance to learn the hitters and make adjustments, so he may be ready to emerge as a Cy Young candidate himself. It's a good rotation with a lot of upside potential, but they don't have much room for error.

The offense looks great once again. I wouldn't be surprised if Lowell fell off after the great season he posted in 2007, but Manny Ramirez seems to have rededicated himself to the game. He put himself through a tough workout regimen in the off season, and he's hoping the Red Sox will pick up his options the next two seasons. Moving his win shares from 15 to the high 20s will certainly help with that. In addition, Drew and Lugo are due for a rebound, and Ellsbury should improve the offensive side of centerfield. Scoring runs won't be a problem for this team.

With B.J. Ryan still questionable, the Red Sox also boast the best end of the game pitching in Okajima and Papelbon. It's a seven inning game when Boston has the lead.

New York Yankees

The Yankees offense still blows away the rest of the field. Even if you factor in likely declines off 2007 numbers by A-Rod and Posada, they're still and incredibly strong team, and those declines could easily be countered by a full season from a healthy Jason Giambi. The rest of the offense produced numbers that should be easily repeatable for 2008, meaning the Yankees are likely to lead the league in runs scored.

The question marks for the Yankees are in the starting rotation. Pettitte and Wang are solid, but behind them is an old Mike Mussina and two youngsters, Hughes and Kennedy. This rotation is actually very similar to Boston. Two good, dependable starters up front, and old guy in the middle and two inexperienced pitchers at the back end. Boston has the advantage between the old men as Wakefield is probably better than Mussina at this point, and that gives Boston a slight advantage there.

With Joba Chamberlain moving to the bullpen, the Yankees also can shorten games. I'd like to see Chamberlain perform over a longer period and Rivera bounce back from last year before I put them on a par with Okajima and Papelbon, however.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division ending in 2008:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees get the nod on their superior offense. The edge the Red Sox have in pitching isn't enough to make up the difference. You can flip the Jays and Rays and get just as good a prediction.

The one thing that could change everything is age. While the Yankees and Red Sox are working in youth, they still carry a number of older players. Boston signed Lowell, and the Yankees brought back Posada and Rivera for a few more years, on top of the long term A-Rod contract. While I don't expect any of these players to fade in 2008, the possibility exists that it could happen. What if Drew and Ramirez don't rebound, but find their 2007 declines were real? What if all those years catching catches up to Posada? What if injuries keep accruing to Matsui and Damon?

The Toronto Blue Jays brought in Rolen and Eckstein, but they might be subject to the same ravages of age, along with Zaun. This is where the young Rays have a chance. Almost everyone on the Rays is likely to play better this season. That, and a massive age attack in the other three cities could put Tampa Bay on top. Let's say I don't put a high probability value on the above standings. It's an exciting division where anything can happen.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March. Please consider making a small donation.

Two months ago I thought this division would be a cake walk for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (LAnaheim Angels), but now I'm not so sure. Not only do the injuries to the Angels front line pitching hurt the team, but I get the feeling people are underestimating that Seattle Mariners. Here's a look at the division.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers are building a strong team up the middle. With Saltalamacchia, Young, Kinsler and Hamilton, the middle of the diamond could turn into a tremendous strength for the Rangers as Daniels continues to slowly put this team together. It looks like the Rangers don't think Jarrod S. is quite ready to take over the catching duties from Laird, but still I like the direction Texas is headed.

Unfortunately, Daniels still needs to build a decent team around that middle. In order to compete this season, the Rangers are going to need a number of players to be outstanding. A healed Hank Blalock would need to show that it truly was injuries, and not a lack of talent that led to his long offensive slide. Kevin Millwood needs to return to the form that led the American League in ERA. Gabbard and McCarthy (when healed) need to show that they were worth the trades. Jason Jennings needs to show that he's healthy and back to his 2006 form. Milton Bradley needs to keep his cool.

That's a lot to ask. The more likely scenario is that some of these players perform well, and some keep disappointing. This team has a way to go before they're ready to challenge for a division title, but at least they look like they're set to improve over the next few seasons.

Oakland Athletics

This is a rebuilding year for Oakland. They traded away two of their best, young players in Haren and Swisher to stock up on prospects so they are ready to compete in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, they didn't shed two players that pulled them down recently, Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. Chavez, however, is seriously injured. Instead of being ready for opening day, the A's shut down his rehabilitation. This opens the door for Jack Hannahan to move into third base. That may turn out to be a positive for Oakland. Hannahan is not a prospect nor anyone who is going to be a star. He is 28, right in his prime, with a good minor league OBA but little power. Given the poor performance by Chavez last season, it's tough to believe Hannahan won't be an improvement.

There are some good and potentially good offensive players on this team. Cust, Buck and Barton could all turn in excellent seasons. Offensively, I really like the idea of Suzuki catching every day. Those four, and another good year from Ellis and the A's have a decent chance of scoring some runs.

On the pitching side, the big question concerns the health of Rich Harden. A healthy Harden more than makes up for the trade of Dan Haren. He's pitched seventeen innings this spring. They're not great innings as he's struck out thirteen and walked seven, but he's still pitching. That give the Athletics a chance to pick up a big positive from their number one starter.

To me, that's the most encouraging thing about the Oakland lineup. When I go up and down the win shares of the likely starters from last year, I see a number who can and should do better in 2008, and almost no places where I would write a minus sign. Is that enough to get them into contention in the division? Probably not, but it's enough to make them an interesting team to follow in 2008.

LAnaheim Angels

The Angels start in a huge hole as their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar begin the season on the disabled list. Instead of replacing Ervin Santana's three win shares with Jon Garland's thirteen, they are replacing Lackey and Escobar's forty win shares with Garland's and Moseley's eighteen.

On top of that, I'm wondering when we are going to see decent production out of the youngsters in this lineup. Napoli, Kendrick, Kotchman and Aybar are all between 24 and 26, which means we should be seeing something near peak this season from them. Maybe the four all mature together, much like the Rockies youngsters did last season. So far, however, I've been less than impressed with the Angels prospects turning into major leaguers.

I also wonder if Vlad, Hunter and Figgins can repeat their 2007 production. The two outfielders are over 30 years old, so the probability of a decline becomes greater. Figgins career is so up and down it's tough to predict what he'll do. Down arrows go next to all three, although I don't expect Vlad and Hunter to go down that much.

Still, I don't see why I should be optimistic about the Angels, even though they won last season.

Seattle Mariners

All winter I read negative stories about the Mariners from Mariners fans. The team was lucky last year, so you need to knock them down a peg before you start with a 2008 projection. The offense gets bad marks. Why are they going to trade Adam Jones? The list goes on.

However, in the spring of 2007 I picked Seattle as my surprise team, and they stayed in contention a good long while. I really don't see why they shouldn't again. They have a solid team. Ichiro is every bit as good as Vlad Guerrero, although their skill set is different. Raul Ibanez posted as many win shares as Torii Hunter in 2007, and his averages were consistent with his career. Why shouldn't he be even with Hunter in 2008? Beltre, while still not living up to his contract, isn't exactly playing poorly. Betancourt and Johjima are good players. At DH, Vidro is at least as good if not better than Garrett Anderson. Until the Angels youngsters prove themselves, Seattle looks like they have better position players than LAnaheim.

Putz outperformed K-Rod in the closer role in 2007. While Rodriguez may play better in 2007, does anyone really expect Putz to do worse? In the rotation, the Mariners jettisoned two terrible pitchers and replaced them with Bedard and Silva. I have no reason to believe these two won't be better than Ramirez and Jeff Weaver.

I just don't see the reasons for pessimism with this team. They're not the class of the AL, but they don't need to be to win this division. It's a good team, and they have the possibility of sending out two aces at the top of the rotation in Bedard and Hernandez. I like their chances a lot.

So my pick for the final order of the 2008 AL West:

1. Seattle Mariners
2. LAnaheim Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March. Please consider making a small donation.

The Baseball Crank analyzes the AL East race using Estimated Win Share Levels (EWSL) and sees the Rays very differently than Nate Silver.

Brian Kamenetzky looks at what the injuries to Lackey and Escobar mean for the AL West.

Squawking Baseball posts NL over and unders for team wins. They predict the Mets take the NL East with the best record in the league, while the Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies all make the playoffs. Unlike the AL, the Mets are the only great team in the league, and there will be the usual dogfight for the other playoff spots.

Interestingly, Squawking Baseball picks eleven teams to beat their win projections, meaning the teams that play under should play very badly.

Squawking Baseball looks at how he'd bet the over/unders for wins by American League teams. I just like the way these numbers rank the teams, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Detroit all tied at 93.5. I also find it interesting that both Tampa Bay and Oakland each come in at 73.5. I'd probably take the over on both of them.

The Baseball Analysts bring in an Angels blogger and a Mariners blogger for their roundtable discussion of the ALWest. The more I look at this division, the more I like the Mariners.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Nate Silver goes on the record at SI.com with a prediction that the Rays will win twenty two more games than the Devil Rays did last season.

It's in the field, though, that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently.

I hope Nate is right. It will be fun to have a third team competing for the top spot in the division.

David Bloom creates a nice tool at Many Eyes to visualize the Chone projections. Here's the hitters, and the pitching plots are here.

CHONE projections put the Tampa Bay Rays in contention in the AL East this season. I was thinking they might reach .500 in 2008 then break out next season.

Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.

Ryan Dempster thinks the Cubs will win the World Series and he'll pitch 200 innings. You have four to go, Ryan.

Sal Baxamusa at The Hardball Times shows how hot and cold streaks can move projections.

U.S.S. Mariner keeps running simulations of the 2008 season to see how Seattle will fare. Impressively, the Oakland Athletics are the most successful franchise in the West. I was surprised at how well the offense did in the lineup analysis using Marcels. ZiPS is giving them the chance to win overall. This may turn out to be Billy Beane's greatest moment.

Hat tip, BBTF.

U.S.S. Mariner runs a simulation based on ZiPS and gets very ugly results for the 2008 Seattle Mariners.

Yanksfans vs. Soxfan uses the newly release PECOTA (subscription required) projections to predict the Red Sox won-lost record.

The Brock6 system nailed most of the rest of Bonds career after the 1996 season, but fell short on home runs.

Bob Sikes saw a Mets deal for Santana coming in 2006.

Johan Santana just might be a Spartan. The Bill James Handbook 2008 lists pitchers with a chance of reaching 300 wins on page 465. Number two on that list with a 29% chance of making it is Johan Santana.

The Chone Projections for 2008 are available here. It shows Posada with a very good 2008, Manny Ramirez declining and Alex Rodriguez still very good. Offensively, at least, teams should concentrate on Torii Hunter over Andruw Jones.

Matthew Swarner writes:

Oh so long ago, you posted some predicted standings that I had collated from sports reporters, bloggers, and other writers around the internet. Here are the results:

The best of the prognosticators: Matthew Carruth of Hardball Times called 18 of 30 teams correctly and missed by only 1 place for 11 other teams. His biggest mistake was picking the Rockies to finish dead last, but he certainly wasn't alone in that error. Other top finishers included Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Al Yellon of bleedcubbieblue.com, Buster Olney of ESPN, and the automated predictions of BP's PECOTA.

The worst: John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has the biggest plate of crow to eat. Six teams ended the season three or more spots away from his predicted standings: Arizona, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Texas, and the Chicago Cubs. However, he still has at least one prediction to boast about. Out of 87 other prognosticators, Perrotto was the only one to pick Colorado to finish among the top 2 in the NL West. Other names in the bottom 10 predictors: Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe, Steve Philips at ESPN, and (gulp) David Pinto of Baseball Musings.

As for the teams, here's what I wrote you on April 2nd:

Anyway, this season looks like it's going to be great. People are really having a hard time picking between Detroit and Cleveland, Mets and Philly, Arizona and San Diego, and St. Louis/Chicago/Milwaukee. But Washington and Kansas City--now that's something nobody argues about.

Most of those races did continue into September, but almost no one saw the Rockies finishing above 4th place and most people were in agreement that the Yankees would take the AL East. Adjusting for number of teams within each division, Colorado was the hardest team to predict, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers failing expectations and the Seattle Mariners exceeding them. The easiest predictions were a couple last place teams (Kansas City and Pittsburgh), the Angels winning the AL West, and the AL East outside of the top 2 (Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay). The Nationals should receive some credit for surpassing almost everyone's expectations (even if the outcome was only next to last), as should the Diamondbacks, the Cubs, and the above-mentioned Rockies and Mariners. The teams that disappointed the most predictions were the Dodgers, Athletics, Marlins, and Rangers.

Well, I did have the Rockies finishing third, at least, but Arizona last. My advice, don't trust my picks! I hope he does this next year as well. It will be good to see if any experts hold up, or if this whole process is rather random. Also, maybe Matt can post the consensus standings somewhere by doing a Borda count on the predictions.

Dave Krieger of the Rockey Mountain News apologizes for underestimating the Rockies:

I did not appreciate the kid Rocks sufficiently.

Back on March 1, I wrote in this space that the Rocks would win 85 games this year. Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, they won No. 86. And they still have four to play.

In my defense, this is all uncharted territory. The Rocks are guaranteed the best record in their 15-year history. Their current 10-game winning streak is the longest in the big leagues this year. They are one game behind San Diego in the wild-card race and two behind Arizona for the National League West division flag.

"The average fan might not have seen this coming, but the average baseball person did," Ken Rosenthal wrote on FoxSports.com a couple of days ago.

Frankly, the average baseball person kept awful quiet about it. Back in March, I got a lot of mail calling my prediction idiotic, but not one correspondent called it too low. Or Tulo, for that matter.

He may also lose a bet to the Rockies owner, who picked the club to win the NL West.

Update: Just to be fair, here's my look at the NL West from the start of the season. I had the Rockies third in a coin toss division.

Sometimes I get these things right. From April 17, 2007:

I missed Bill James' Q & A to the class since I got the time wrong, but saw a very nice presentation on the minor leagues by Andy Andres, Tony Massarotti and Ted Trey (owner of the Worcester Tornadoes). Afterward, a few of us were talking with Bill and he asked how many wins the Yankees would earn this year. I thought 90 to 95, but most thought I was over estimating based on the New York pitching. But tonight is a perfect example of my argument. The offense is so good, the pitching staff just needs a 4.50 ERA for a big season. Chase Wright comes up, gives them five innings, and allows three runs. Meanwhile, the offense just bombs Jake Westbrook, chasing him from the game after 1 2/3 innings. That score held up through seven innings so far. This staff just needs to be okay, and my opinion is they're good enough.

Now, that group was made up mostly of Red Sox fans, but still they represented a nice set of intelligent baseball researchers. As of today, if the Yankees can maintain a .566 winning percentage, they'll finish with 92 wins. The team's ERA is 4.51.

Of course, now that I've written this they'll probably go on a losing streak and end up with 89 wins. :-)

Vegas Watch looks ahead to what the second half might bring in the National League.

Vegas Watch looks ahead to the second half, breaking down all the AL teams.

Here's an example of using betting lines to gauge team strength. And here's the same thing for the NL. I surprised the Yankees are so high in the AL and the Marlins are so low in the NL. But that's the wisdom of crowds.

Jimmy Rollins stands firm in his belief that the Phillies are the team to beat:

Rollins stood in the middle of the small visitors' clubhouse, making himself easily available to anyone who wanted to ask him a question. He wasn't surly, or even defiant. He even had a sense of humor about the way the crowd had given him the New York treatment, waving to them as he came off the field in the eighth inning, as the "Jim-my Roll-ins, Jim-my Roll-ins," chant echoed throughout Shea.

"The crowd was great," he said with a laugh. "They are fans, they're supposed to get on the other players, and try to get under your skin. I like that, I really do."

Above all, Rollins was firm in his position that he'd said what he'd said for a reason, and he had no regrets.

"I don't have to defend it," he said. "If I didn't feel it, I wouldn't have said it. I try to tell it the way it is. Sometimes it needs to be said.

"It's like with your wife. If you don't tell her you love her, even though she knows it, (she) still wants to hear it. With us, the feeling is there, that, 'Hey, we are good,' but sometimes you need to hear it to really believe it."

Good for him. Now he and the Phillies just need to prove it.

When I think about who might win the NL MVP, the candidates come easily. Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard are at the peak of their production and already great hitters, and you can easily throw out half a dozen other likely candidates. But in thinking about the AL candidates, I found myself naming older players (Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, Vald Guerrero) or young ones (Mauer, Morneau). I wasn't coming up with names in the prime years of production, so I looked to see who was playing this year with a seasonal age between 25 and 28 (born from 7/1/1978 to 6/30/1982). So here's some names at an age where you might see an MVP season:

• Hank Blalock. Disappointing is the word for Blalock so far. Maybe if Ron Washington works some magic, he'll return to the form of his early career. I don't hold much of a chance of him winning the MVP, but now's the time for him to break out.
• Carl Crawford. Carl does things sports writers like. He hits for a high average, runs well, and has some power. If he can get his homer total over 30, he'll pull in some votes.
• Jhonny Peralta. He'll need to return to his 2005 numbers, but any time a shortstop posts a great offensive season, he should be an MVP candidate. How much his defense holds him back only the voters know.
Alex Rios. His power took a big step forward in 2006, and he'll need to take another to have a shot at the award. And avoid freak illnesses.
• Nick Swisher. His on base average and slugging percentage are fine, but he needs to make them great to win the award from first base. His low batting average makes him less appealing to voters.
• Mark Teahen. Like Rios, Teahen needs to keep improving his power numbers. A poor offense around him will hurt his RBI totals, which voters love.
• Mark Teixeira. His 2005 number put him seventh on the MVP ballot. If he can crack 40 homers or more, he'll move up from that spot.
• Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis' seasonal age is 28 this year and he's never shown a lot of power. He's a long shot.

If you think I missed some age appropriate AL player, let me know.

The NL West shapes up as another division any team can win. From the Dodgers to the Diamondbacks, the West will be decided by the strength of improvement from rookies or decline from veterans. Don't be surprised to see a repeat of the jockeying for first place that happened last season.

With San Diego, the key to success is Jake Peavy. The Padres ace suffered from a bad shoulder in 2006. A healthier Peavy contends for the Cy Young award. His strikeouts were great this spring, 27 in 23 innings pitched. He did allow three homers and nine walks, the walks a little on the high side for him. But the strikeouts are a very good sign. If the Padres can get another season of improvement from Chris Young, they'll trot out a fine 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

That's actually a theme for this division. With the possible exception of the Rockies, each teams owns an excellent pair of pitchers at the top of the rotation. Which franchise ends up with the best staff depends on how they fill out the other three spots. The Padres give two-fifths of their starts to ancient pitchers, Greg Maddux and David Wells. Given their ages, both are huge question marks, especially now that Wells was diagnosed with diabetes. David did not put up very good numbers in spring training, allowing a ton of hits.

There are some positives on offense as well. The replacement of Josh Barfield with Marcus Giles looks like it will bring about a short term improvement at the position. Marcus is declining, but right now he brings more wins to the Padres than the maturing Barfield would. Kouzmanoff put together a great spring, and should add lots of life to the Padres offense from third base. There just aren't a lot of places on this team where the Padres might get worse. Cameron and Brian Giles are at an age when decline happens, but the up arrows on offense should balance that. The Padres are at least as good as 2006, and probably better.

The Dodgers 1-2 punch comes from Jason Schmidt and Derek Lowe. And while these two are good, there's not much upside there. The Padres can expect Peavy to bounce back from injury, the Giants are counting on Cain to improve, and the Diamondbacks hope Randy Johnson's surgery returns him to form. But with Lowe and Schmidt, what you see is what you get. Backing them up is Randy Wolf, who hasn't pitched a complete season since 2003, Brad Penny who walked twice as many as he struck out this spring and Brett Tomko, who reduced his walks but raised his home runs last season.

I thought the Dodgers would put together a better mix of youth and veterans on offense. Their farm system receives praise, but they send down James Loney and bring in Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre. In addition, Garciaparra, Frucal and Kent are more likely to decline that improve. Still if the youngster who are bound to get some playing time can balance that with improvement, the Dodgers look as good as 2007, if not a bit better.

Every year I think the Giants are going to be lousy due to their age, and every year I look at the stats and am surprised that the Giants are competitive within the division. Barry Bonds, playing three quarters of a season, on two bad legs and with a bad elbow still managed to post 25 win shares, an excellent total for any player. Vizquel and Durham still put together fine seasons, and the rest of the lineup is solid. With Bonds appearing to be healthiest he's been in the last couple of seasons, and Aaron's record in his sights, I actually expect him to improve. Still, the assumption has to be that the offense overall is going to decline due to age.

The rotation actually contains some players under 30. Zito makes the ace of the staff a couple of years younger, and Cain and Lowry are pitchers on the rise. However, you need to take points back from the rotation for the return of Russ Ortiz. Russ was so bad in 2006 the Diamondbacks decided to eat his contract rather than letting him stink up the pitching staff anymore. It strikes me that based on 2006 win shares, the Giants and Padres are pretty even. However, with youth on the Padres and age on the Giants, the Padres are more likely beat my expectations while the Giants don't.

The Arizona Diamondbacks front office knows how to build a ball club. I thought my analysis would put them near the top of the division, but that's not true. The problem is that Arizona puts a number of young but unproven players on the field. Jackson, Drew, Young, Quentin and Owings promise to be very good, but it's tough to predict all of them will have outstanding seasons in 2007. With Randy Johnson looking healthy, there's a big reason to believe I'm underestimating the Diamondbacks success this year. But my guess is that they're still a year away from the playoffs.

I also like the direction the Rockies are heading. They bring into the mix Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki, two players who posted great numbers in the minor leagues. Catcher and shortstop were two weak spots for Colorado in 2007, and these two players likely make the Rockies solid at seven of the eight non-pitching spots.

The pitching staff needs to solidify the gains made in 2006. If the Rockies offense does improve, the staff doesn't need to be great to win. A 4.50 ERA can take this team a long way.

I can imagine scenarios where any team in this division gets the right breaks and finishes first. There's not that much difference top to bottom. But I need to name an order, so here it goes:

1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Rockies
4. Giants
5. Diamondbacks

You can pull names out of a hat and do just as well. Will Randy Johnson turn in a superb season along with some great rookies and push Arizona to the top? Was the Rockies pitching staff for real last season? Is Bonds going to amaze us again at his advanced age? Can Peavy and Young be the best top of the rotation in the division? Can the Dodgers veterans put up one more great year?

In four of the six divisions we'll have solid four team races. It's looking like a great year for baseball fans, right down to the wire.

Once again the AL East looks like it has for the last decade. Two strong teams at the top, two evenly matched teams in the middle, and a poor team at the bottom.

The Yankees once again put together an amazingly good squad. When I calculate wins for the core players, the good teams come out in the high 60s or low 70s. The bullpens and reserves make up the rest of the total. But when you calculate the core for the Yankees, they come out to 84 wins. The really scary thing about that number is that it's a floor, not a ceiling. It assumes very low contributions from Hideki Matsui and Carl Pavano. The lineup consists of eight superior players and Doug Mientkiewicz. The Yankees could easily score 900 runs with this lineup, and if they decide they need to score more, they should be able to replace Doug at first with a slugger.

The pitching staff isn't at the same level, but the Yankees picked up three prospects over the winter who might turn out to be major league ready this season. So if Pavano or Wang or Pettitte turn out to be hurt, there's something in reserve. And the nice thing, with that offense, a team ERA of 4.50 still means they'll likely win the division.

The Red Sox end up with the second best core in the majors, but still seven games behind the Yankees. They put four superior offensive players in their lineup, Ramirez, Ortiz, Drew and Youkilis. They also work in a little youth with Dustin Pedroia. The twenty-three year old posted great minor league numbers for any position, let alone a middle infielder. He and a healthy Coco Crisp should boost the offense.

The big story on the pitching side, of course, is Daisuke Matsuzaka. The $100 million pitcher has the potential to be anything from an average starter to a Cy Young candidate. When the Red Sox watched Matsuzaka they saw a breaking pitch that was undetectable. That's what made Pedro so unhittable when he pitched for Boston. If that pitch turns out to be as good as the front office thinks, Matsuzaka will wind up much closer to the Cy Young end of the scale. Combine that with Beckett keeping the ball in the park, and there's two more arrows pointing in the direction of improvement for the Red Sox.

However, they've traded 150 innings of Jonathan Papelbon for 150 innings of Julian Tavarez or some other replacement pitcher. Papelbon returned to the bullpen as the Red Sox could not find a legitimate closer to replace him. It improves chances of the Red Sox keeping a lead late, but they may not get as many chances with Tavarez starting.

The Toronto Blue Jays finished in second place in 2006, but they'll be hard pressed to repeat that level. While the Yankees and Red Sox improved their rosters, the Blue Jays put Royce Clayton in the middle of their infield. Not only does Royce not contribute offensively, he showed very little range in 2006. It's not like they're the Yankees with eight great players around him, and decent offensive shortstops are not easy to come by.

The best place to find improvement on the Jays is in two players who spent time on the DL in 2006. A.J. Burnett and Alex Rios both should contribute more to the team in 2007 just by staying healthy. And designated hitter Frank Thomas can still hurt the opposition, especially in a hitter's park like the Rogers Center. But look for older players like Glaus and Zaun to decline some.

Halladay and Burnett give the Jays a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but the 3-5 starters leave a lot to be desired. It's going to take some luck for Toronto to make the playoffs in 2007.

The Baltimore Orioles are actually very close to the Blue Jays in terms of core wins. Toronto edges them out by the difference between former Oriole B.J. Ryan and current Baltimore closer Chris Ray. But Ray pitched well last year in his new role, and he's still young enough to continue to develop as a closer.

The Orioles own two high power position players in Tejada and Hernandez, and Nick Markakis may become the third. Both the veterans play tough defensive positions as well, making their offense even more valuable. The rest of the lineup is solid but not great. The weakest link in the order is Gibbons at designated hitter. But, like the Yankees, if DH is an offensive problem, it's one that's easy to fix.

Erik Bedard lowered his walk rate in 2006, and his ERA went down with it. The Orioles hope Daniel Cabrera can do the same thing in 2007. Cabrera walked 104 batters in 148 innings last season. He's going to need to cut that in half to have much success in the majors. The rest of the rotation is retreads, the Orioles favorite kind of player. On the strength of their offense, they'll battle Toronto for third place, but it looks like another year out of the playoffs for the birds.

And bringing up the rear once again are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This is an organization moving in the right direction. They've abandoned the practice of constantly bringing in washed up veterans to salvage the team. They're going with youth, but it will take some time to develop. But I'd much rather watch a team that's going to improve than one that is destined to decline.

The offense is coming along better than the pitching. Navarro, Zorbist, Young and Upton are going to get a chance to play. Even if two turn out to be great, the DRays will show improvement in 2007. The staff behind Scott Kazmir remains iffy. The Rays need to find some pitching talent to complement their hitters before they can really make a move in the east.

So I see the division finishing:

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

It's possible age catches up with the Yankees, and they come back to the pack. That would make the division race a lot more interesting.

The AL Central became a little more muddled on Friday when we found out that surgery sidelined Kenny Rogers for half a season. Originally, the Tigers came out on top of my prediction for the division, but I need to rethink that.

The Indians are the trendy pick to win the division in 2007. Looking at the team, I'm not sure why. Cleveland pulled off an amazing feat in 2006, out scoring the opposition by almost 90 runs but posting a losing record. It was in fact, the second year in a row they underperformed their projected wins based on their runs scored and runs allowed. Some blamed the bullpen, and Shapiro rebuilt that over the winter. A big part of the blame can be placed on the infield defense, however. Cleveland was the most porous AL team in 2006 in allowing batters to reach on ground balls. Shapiro tried to plug those holes as well, as he starts a different first, second and third baseman than he did last April.

But will it be enough? The Indians pitching staff is constructed to put a lot of ground balls into play. There's uncertainty to that kind of staff, as bad hops or bad fielding can really hurt. A staff of strikeout artists might be the better way to go. And going with younger, unproven hitters doesn't mean the offense will be as good as the 2006 squad. After getting burned in 2006, I'm not jumping on the bandwagon. If the Tribe continues to under-perform, watch for Eric Wedge to get fired.

Before the Rogers injury, I liked the Tigers to succeed where they failed in 2006 and take the division. They boasted the best rotation in the Central, but fall short without the gambler. Still, despite Chad Durbin, it's not bad. Unlike most teams, there's no clear ace on the staff, but every one of the starters gives about the same level of good performance. I expected Kenny Rogers to decline but thought improvements by Bondermand and Verlander would help make up some of the gap. This injury took them from being slightly better than Chicago to a couple of steps behind. We'll see if any of the Tigers prospects get a chance to pitch in case of a Durbin failure.

On offense, the Tigers return the same solid lineup, with the addition of hard hitting Gary Sheffield. That should provide the boost to increase their run total from the previous season and keep them in contention in the AL Central. The caveats, however, are the older players like Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez. Magglio was healthy for the first time in a while in 2006 and there's no guarantee he'll repeat that.

The defending division champs, the Minnesota Twins, boast three of the best players in the division in Mauer, Santana and Morneau. It's a great way to assemble a team, putting three superstars on the field and surrounding them with good players. Unfortunately for the Twins, the rotation lost two pitchers as Brad Radke retired and Francisco Liriano is out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That leaves little certainty behind Santana. They'll depend youngster Boof Bonser to fill one of those roles. But despite a strong farm system, the back of the rotation gets filled by three poor quality veterans in Ortiz, Silva and Ponson. That might cost the team the division.

The White Sox come out as the number two team in the Central based on my quick and dirty calculations. However, a number of arrows point down on the team. The biggest ones come on offense. They added Darin Erstad because of the extremely poor offense of Brian Anderson, but that just made an aging team older. They'll field six 30+ hitters, and that means there's a higher likelihood to decline than to get better. The pitching is solid top to bottom and Chicago is likely to say, "Danks you," to the Rangers for their new fifth starter. A rebound by Buerhle after a down 2006 puts this rotation heads shoulders above the rest of the division. Still, if Dye and Thome fall off from their great seasons, there might not be enough runs to win.

And bringing up the rear once again is the Kansas City Royals. They hired a new number one starter, but Gil Meche would be no better than the third starter on any other team in the division. And the rotation gets much worse after that. On the offensive side, Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon promise to be the start of something better for the Kansas City. If they can surround them with decent players over the next few years, the Royals can contend again.

So here's my projected order of finish.

1. White Sox
2. Tigers
3. Twins
4. Indians
5. Royals

This is a change from my radio programs. The Tigers losing Rogers and the Twins going with Ponson, Ortiz and Silva knock both of those teams down in my estimation. The emergence of Danks means Chicago owns the best rotation in the Central. And while I expect the offense to decline on the south side, there still are good hitters on that team. This is another division that's shaping up for a very close race for the title.

Studes donated $100 to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and receives the following dedication:

I think that The Hardball Times is the greatest. Yay, Hardball Times!!!!!!!!!! Signed, David Pinto (at the request of donor Dave Studeman)

The NL East in 2007 looks like it will come down to a battle between a great offensive team and two top notch pitching staffs. The Mets are defending champs and posted the best record in the NL in 2006, only to fall to the Cardinals in the NLCS. They return a lineup solid to great from top to bottom, and even added veteran Moises Alou to boost the offense more. I love the diversity of this batting unit. They have young stars in Wright and Reyes, and great veterans like Delgado and Beltran. The Mets are a perfect mix of power hitters, selective hitters, high average hitters, speed and defense. Offensively, the unit towers over the rest of the NL East.

The pitching, however, leaves much to be desired. With Pedro Martinez out for at least most of the year, and the Mets not really counting on him until 2008, the rotation comes down to two old veterans, two pitchers with questionable careers, and a youngster. Glavine and Hernandez are okay at best, but the bet is that they keep declining. The Mets hoped Rick Peterson could improve Oliver Perez and Chan-Ho Park. Perez pitched well this spring, controlling his walks and making the rotation. Park's ERA was high, but so were his strikeouts. Home runs killed him as he moved to the bullpen to make room for Mike Pelfry in the rotation. By the end of the year, you might be hearing, "Pelfry, Maine and pray for rain" (or a healthy Pedro). But with the Mets offense, the rotation doesn't need to be great to win games. Okay works just fine.

The Phillies and the Marlins, on the other hand, send two fine starting staffs to the mound. The Marlins are loaded with young guns, and veteran Dontrelle Willis is looking to bounce back after an off year. What's great about the fire sale that took place at the end of the 2005 season is that even with Josh Johnson hurt for the beginning of the season, the Marlins can use their depth for a replacement.

The Phillies staff is more on the veteran side, with former Mariners Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer filling out the back of the rotation. But Young Cole Hamels figures to improve on his partial season in 2006, which along with a peaceful Brett Myers gives the Phillies a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

Both these teams also boast great offensive infields. The Phillies generate tons of runs from the right side with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The Marlins get the production from the left side with Miguel Cabrera and Hanely Ramirez. In a way, I like the Marlins a bit more here, since Cabrera and Ramirez are still young enough to be improving, while Utley and Howard reached their peaks. The Phillies own the edge in the outfield, however. That, in my mind, makes the difference between the two, putting Philadelphia a hair in front of Florida.

My gut says the Braves are in for another season of disappointment. The offense is good, on par with the Phillies and Marlins. But the Braves revamped the right side of their infield with unproven players as Johnson and Thorman take over for Giles and LaRoche. And there's always the spectre of a Chipper Jones injuries. Already twice during spring training he's suffered minor injuries similar to ones that kept him out of action in 2006.

When I first looked at this division for my radio show, the once great Braves rotation appeared to be in shambles. But, they've pitched extremely well in spring training, making me much more cautious in my prediction. Smoltz, Hudson and Cormier all showed great control this spring. James posted a fine ERA despite walking a batter every other inning. On the other hand, Smoltz is still a talented ace, but he's growing old and there's no guarantees of a good season anymore. Tim Hudson left his best years in Oakland. Mike Hampton tried to come back, but an injury delayed his return. Right now, I'm taking the spring number with a huge grain of salt, but it's possible the Shuerholz magic in assembling a pitching staff is back.

And bringing up the rear in the division in a bid to win the first pick in the 2008 draft are the Washington Nationals. They start the season with their best hitter, Nick Johnson, still recovering from a broken femur he suffered at the end of 2006. Ryan Zimmerman is the only star on team. The pitching staff is an absolute mess, with John Patterson the only hope of a good starter, that rests on the very big if of him staying healthy. There's not much there on either side of the ball.

The Nats did make a good trade last season, sending relievers to Cincinnati for Kearns and Lopez. Austin Kearns was a promising prospect a few years ago before injuries derailed his career. He showed signs of coming back in 2006, and a healthy year from him might make up for the loss of Johnson. But that's balanced with Cristian Guzman at short, one of the great offensive black holes in the game. Unfortunately, Washington needs fewer Guzmans and more Kearns on this roster. Given the relative strength of the other teams in the divisions, the Nationals will be lucky to win 60 games.

So here's my projected order of finish:

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Florida Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Washington Nationals

It's at least a three way race for the division, and if Atlanta's spring pitching number hold up, the top four teams will all be in the hunt.

Matthew Swarner writes:

This year, I'm starting a fun analysis that your readers could be a great help on. I'm compiling the division rankings from team previews--ex. your AL West preview: LAA 1st, SEA 2nd, OAK 3rd, TEX 4th. I'm keen on looking at how individual teams do, which divisions' ranking are most variable, if rankings are affected by who writes it (fanblog vs paid baseball writer), and of course, who gets it most right at the end!

I've been searching for division predictions over the past month and while I've found quite a few, your readership has a much wider net. They surely even have some of their own! Would you consider posting a "call for division rankings" on baseballmusings.com? Readers could send in team rankings that they've read or predicted themselves. Any ranking is legitimate--whether it's from website, newspaper, podcast, magazine--but I would need the source.

Matt doesn't have a web site of his own, so I'll publish the results here. If you'd like to take part, send your own predictions to Matt at mjswarner@gmail.com.

MetsBlog.com polls writers and bloggers to get a sense of some 2007 numbers for the Mets. The most important one is that everyone polled (including me) thinks the Mets will win more than 88 games this year.

The AL West, the smallest division in baseball provides the best probability for any particular team to win. This season, the division is shaping up for a very different finish than last year.

The Oakland Athletics won the AL West in 2006, but enter 2007 with the loss of two big guns, Frank Thomas and Barry Zito. The replacements are Rich Harden and Mike Piazza. The pitching move is pretty typical of the A's management. They let older pitchers go before they fall apart, and move a young stud into the rotation. Unfortunately, filling the fifth slot proved difficult. None of the four pitchers who tried to grab the job preformed well. That's going to cost the A's some wins.

The change from Thomas to Piazza downgrades the offense. Even more worrisome is the injury to Mark Kotsay that forces Shannon Stewart into the lineup. Right now, Jason Kendall looks like the best offensive player on the team. There are some places where the A's might improve, however. Dan Johnson corrected a vision problem, which might bring him back to his 2005 level of play. Healthy seasons from Chavez and Crosby would also make up for some of the lost offense. Right now, on paper, the Oakland Athletics look like a third place team. But Billy Beane does an excellent job year in and year out of correcting weaknesses in the team mid stream. He going to need to do a very good job of it this season.

The second place Angels spent big bucks on Gary Matthews Jr. to improve the top of the order and the outfield defense. They paid a lot of money for a player in his 30s with only one great season under his belt. It strikes me that this move is likely to disappoint. Still, they have Vlad Guerrero, recovered from a bad knee in 2006. Even with a bum leg he was a force to be reckoned with. A healthy Vlad makes the offense better and is an MVP candidate.

I also like the way the Angels are weaving young players into the lineup. Kendrick and Kotchman look likely to get plenty of playing time this season, and Weaver and Saunders get to spend a whole year in the rotation.
Weaver starts the season on the DL, but the injury is minor and he'll likely miss just one turn. With Colon returning sometime in May, the Angels clearly own the best pitching in the division. They're solid top to bottom, with good strikeout rates and low walks allowed. And they finish the game with the division's best closer, Francisco Rodriguez. The pitching and a decent offense makes them a good pick for the division lead.

My only worry is that Figgins, Anderson and Cabrera are a year older and likely to decline, while Juan Rivera remains injured, to be replaced by the light hitting Shea Hillenbrand. With the strength of the staff, the offense doesn't have to be great, but low run scoring might prevent the Angels from running away with the race.

My surprise in the AL West goes to the Seattle Mariners. Although fans are disappointed with the production of Sexson and Beltre, and some are upset that the team is bringing in older players like Guillen and Vidro, the offense is consistently good. Based on 2006 numbers, even without making adjustment for improved health, the Mariners look like they own the best set of position players in the division. Healthy years from Guillen and Vidro make the offense much better. I'm very positive about that half of the team.

The pitching staff leaves something to be desired, but they do have a real wild card in Felix Hernandez. He looked great in his rookie year, but 2006 saw him take a big step backwards. He came to camp in the best shape of his life, prepared to carry this team. If he can pull off the types of seasons a young Gooden or Clemens pitched in the mid 1980s, the rest of the staff doesn't need to do all that well for the Mariners to post a winning record, even a division win.

Finally, the team that is likely to bring up the rear in the division is the Texas Rangers. We're used to Texas producing a lot of runs, but the offense is full of holes. Hank Blalock, once an all-star, tries to turn his career around. Without his bat, Young and Teixeira do all the heavy lifting. Other question marks on the offense are Brad Wilkerson, recovering from an injury and a difficult season and the untested Nelson Cruz. It's not a bad offense, but it's not what we're used to from the Rangers, and there's not a lot of potential for improvement.

That would be fine if the pitching were in good shape, but for a long time this winter depth charts only listed three starters on the squad. And while Brandon McCarty may turn out to be a star, there's no depth to the lineup. Jamey Wright, awful for the Giants in 2006, was named the fifth starter. The offense will need to hit on all cylinders when Wright takes the hill.

The only bright light on the staff is if Eric Gagne returns to his dominant form. That way, with Otsuka setting up, the Rangers could shorten the game to seven innings. With a starting staff unlikely to go long in the game, those last two innings become crucial. A great Rangers offense might carry this staff in that case, but this particular set of run scorers aren't likely to get the job done.

So I see the division ending with the Angels in first, the Mariners in second, the Athletics in third and the Rangers in the basement. Of course, some more mid-season magic from Billy Beane could easily change that arrangement.

Correction: I was working off old notes and forgot to update the Rangers rotation. Jamey Wright won the fifth starter's job. However, substituting Wright for Chen and Giants for Orioles gives the exact same result.

Earlier today I mentioned the Astros were my pick to win the NL Central. Since that elicited a number of responses, I thought it was time to start previewing the divisions in detail. So let's start with the NL Central.

The NL Central produced both an exciting regular season finish and the World Champion Cardinals in 2006. The Cardinals defense of their title starts with their superstar, Albert Pujols. The first baseman is the best hitter of his generation, still young enough that he's just reaching his peak. An injury kept him from challenging Bonds single season home run record in 2006, so we'll see if he can get off to a similar hot start this year.

The days of this being a dominating offense are over, however. While Pujols is at his peak, partners in offense Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds are fading. Age and injury brought the pair back down to earth. It used to be that the Cardinals could depend on these three generating a high number of runs, so the Cardinals could afford to fill in around them with okay players. That's not good enough anymore. The Cardinals need some skilled players around Albert, and yet they continue to sign older veterans to shore up the team. The way they go about building the team around Pujols is actually similar to what the Giants do with Bonds. That leaves St. Louis' offense susceptible to injury. Last year I thought the team would come back to the pack. They're going to need a great season by Pujols to keep them one step ahead of the tightening NL Central.

Even the pitching staff is questionable right now. Carpenter remains a true ace, but behind him are two young, unproven pitchers in Wainwright and Reyes. Both have potential, but both need to prove they're major league starters. The Cardinals, however, never fail to experiment. This season, Bradon Looper becomes a starter after exclusively relieving during his long major league career. I could find no record of a reliever making a successful move to the starting rotation this late in his career. If his spring numbers are any indication, Looper won't strike out many batters, leading to a ton of hits. That's a very bad combination for any pitcher. This won't be an easy season for St. Louis fans. The team should compete, but the odds of winning the division are not in their favor.

The team with the best chance of taking the division in my opinion is the Houston Astros. They feature the best starting pitcher in the division in Roy Oswalt, and the second best offensive player in Lance Berkman. And like the Cardinals of prior years, the heart of the Houston order is dominant. Berkman is healthy, surgeons fixed Morgan Ensberg's shoulder and Carlos Lee consistently outputs 25 win shares a season. I suspect these three will do for the Astros what Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds used to produce for the Cardinals. Although Astros fans may rightly be concerned about the long term aspects of Lee's contract, I suspect he'll be very good this season.

There are problems with the offense, however, and a big one is long-time Astro Craig Biggio. The future Hall of Famer continues to play as he attempts to reach 3000 hits. But his offense is on the decline, and a team that really wanted to win might replace him with a better player at second base. But there's something to be said for loyalty, and the Houston fans get to see Biggio go for his milestone hit and try one more time for a World Championship. However, the rest of the offense is okay, and if you have three great hitters, a bunch of good ones should be enough to generate runs.

Backing up Oswalt in the rotation is Jason Jennings, who pitched well in Colorado and should do fine in a better environment in Houston. But the back of the rotation, especially the 4-5 starters are weak. I suspect this will eventually drive Houston to re-sign Roger Clemens for another stretch drive.

Still, the offense should overcome the pitching problems, and while Houston isn't going to run away with the division, they have the best combination of players in the NL Central.

The Cincinnati Reds held the NL Central in the palm of their hands at various times in 2006. All they needed was a winning streak at the top. Instead, taking first place usually led to a slump. A swoon by their star hitter, Adam Dunn, and a poor trade for relief help doomed them to finish back in a fairly easy division. At this point, the Reds can't do much about the trade, but Adam Dunn took his slump seriously. The slugger spent the winter training to be more like Ichiro. At first, that sounds like a bad thing, but he's not working to go from a slugger to a singles hitter. Dunn, strikeout artist extraordinaire wants to make more contact. That's a great idea. With his strength and batting eye, more balls in play means more hits (and homers) for Dunn, and more runs for the Reds.

Apart from Dunn, however, there's not much else offensively to cheer about on the Reds in 2007. But they clearly own the best starting rotation in the division. It's a bit of a topsey-turvey world in Cincinnati this season, as the pitching is strong and the offense is weak. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo represent the best 1-2 punch in the division. And waiting in the wings is top prospect Homer Bailey. If Milton or Lohse fail, look for Bailey to move up to the majors and improve the staff.

With good pitching and a weak offense, expect a number of close games and David Weathers to figure prominently in the Reds success.

The Milwaukee Brewers were the trendy pick to break the .500 barrier in 2006. They failed in that endeavor, but they're a young team still on the rise. In a poll on the finish of the NL Central, almost every blogger questioned put the Brewers first or second, making them the "wisdom of crowds" favorite to win the division. My number don't show the Brewers that strong, but the improvement arrows point up. Rickey Weeks and Prince Fielder are young and play 2007 with a year of MLB experience under their belt. Moving Hall to center puts a better arrangement of talent on the field. The addition of Estrada at catcher is a good offensive upgrade at the position. The Brewers should score more runs this season.

But the biggest boost should come from a healthy Ben Sheets in the rotation. Sheets returning to his 2004 form gives the Brewers a solid 1-4 in the rotation. Of course, there's the possibility of too much optimism here. Weeks and Fielder posted good but not great OBAs in 2006. Hall may not adjust well in center. And Sheets, with his series of injuries may have seen his best days. The Brewers are like the Tigers of 2006; if everything breaks right, they can win the division, but I don't seem them as clear cut favorites.

The team that made the biggest off-season move was the Chicago Cubs, signing Alfonso Soriano to an $18 million a year contract and moving him to a tougher defensive position in centerfield. If Soriano can post numbers anywhere near his 2006 level, it will be a huge boost to the Cubs win total. Combine that with a healthy Derrek Lee and a locked up Aramis Ramirez, and Chicago pitchers shouldn't lack for run support.

However, some things don't change. Cesar Izturis provides no offense at shortstop, and his backup, Ronny Cedeno isn't any better. And what happens if 2006 turns out to be a fluke for Soriano? They'll need Matt Murton to continue to improve. Still my guess is that Lee and Soriano together for a full year, with more improvement from a young Murton results in more offense in Chicago.

Pitching presents a big question mark, however. Zambrano is a terrific number one starter, but there's not much behind him. Lilly is more of a third starter, but on this team he's number two. If you want to put a positive spin on Jason Marquis' 2006 ERA, you can say he was left in to save the bullpen in a few games while getting hammered. Of course, getting hammered in a few games isn't exactly what one wants from a starting pitcher. Mark Prior doesn't appear on his way to his old form, so this is a very iffy rotation. The Cubs improved their offense without improving their pitching staff. I just don't see the Cubs winning with this team, unless the division turns out to be as bad as 2006.

The Pirates bring up the rear in the division. Of course, it's simple for Pirates fans in 2007. Root for Bay and Sanchez and hope everyone else gets lucky. What's worse, however, is that the Pirates farm system has nothing to show for years of major league ineptitude. The farm system should be crawling with fine young talent, but the Pittsburgh AA and AAA affiliates are crawling with players in their mid 20s. That's not the age that produces stars. The Athletics and Twins showed how to build a team with a low payroll. The Devil Rays and Royals can point to talent in their systems. There's no excuse for the Pirates to be this bad. Things won't change until Pittsburgh hires a GM who knows how to build a team from scratch.

So I see the division finishing Astros, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Cubs and Pirates. But it's going to be really close, where any of the first five teams offers legitimate reasons to finish first. I wouldn't assign a probability of winning the division higher that 20% to any team in the NL Central. That the first five teams, throw their names a hat, pull them out at random and you'll get just as good a prediction of the order of finish. I'm looking forward to a tight pennant race in 2007.

Correction: I meant Ronny Cedeno, not Neifi Perez.

Tango Tiger is looking for your help in predicting OPS and ERA. He's putting the wisdom of crowds to work!

Another way to do this would be to post a prediction, and see how many people think the player is over or under the prediction. If it's 50-50, you have a good prediction. If 90% think the prediction is too low, you need to raise it. And you keep doing that until you get 50-50. That becomes the prediction.

Protrade does this with buying and selling, although there you're buying and selling classic fantasy value. (Victorino is really a hot commodity right now.)

John Beamer puts together his predictions for the division races at The Hardball Times. The most interesting thing about the standings is the National League is so bad. Arizona posts the best record in the senior circuit with an 86-76 mark. While I don't disagree there are no clearly dominant teams in the NL, just by chance one of these teams will win 90+ games. Run this a few times and see how often you get a 90 win team. (I get a 90 win team about 96% of the time.) By random chance, some team in the NL is going to much better than this projection.

There's a nice preview of the American League race at ArmChairGM. The opening table is especially useful in seeing how the teams are shaping up for 2007. And being a Wiki, you can edit in comments right in the text!

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

In reading the comments and taking a second look at the probability of various players reaching 500 AB, I decided to change the calculation. I went back to see how 2006 was predicted. The top nine players in the list all had probabilities around .5, meaning half of them should have reached 500 at bats, and half failed. All of them, however, reached the mark. (And eight of them ended up on the top ten list for their league.)

So I changed the weighting of the two probability distributions, giving the previous season's at bats 75% of the weight and age just 25%. This spread out the high end of the probabilities. It also made the low end more interesting. If you look at the 2006 data below, you'll see there are about 100 players who's probability of reaching 500 at bats rounds to .05. That means, of those 100 players, we'd expect 5 to reach that level of playing time. Eyeballing the list, I came up with five names that I think will reach 500 at bats in 2007:

• Gary Sheffield
• Hideki Matsui
• Stephen Drew
• James Loney
• Derrek Lee

All in all, this looks like a better list than the original. As always, your comments are welcome.

Probability of Reaching at Least 500 At Bats in 2007

Juan Pierre	69	29	0.764
Michael Young	69	30	0.762
Ichiro Suzuki	69	33	0.760
Jimmy Rollins	68	28	0.720
Miguel Tejada	64	31	0.675
Alfonso Soriano	64	31	0.675
Rafael Furcal	65	29	0.664
Chase Utley	65	28	0.662
Jose Reyes	64	24	0.656
Grady Sizemore	65	24	0.650
Jeff Francoeur	65	23	0.647
Mark Loretta	63	35	0.639
Hanley Ramirez	63	23	0.631
Carlos Lee	62	31	0.602
Mark Teixeira	62	27	0.600
Adrian Beltre	62	28	0.599
Gary Matthews	62	32	0.598
Vladimir Guerrero	60	31	0.597
Derek Jeter	62	33	0.596
Chone Figgins	60	29	0.596
Matt Holliday	60	27	0.594
Garrett Atkins	60	27	0.594
Pedro Feliz	60	32	0.593
Orlando Cabrera	60	32	0.593
Melvin Mora	62	35	0.588
Raul Ibanez	62	35	0.588
Dan Uggla	61	27	0.584
Felipe Lopez	61	27	0.584
Carl Crawford	60	25	0.584
Vernon Wells	61	28	0.584
Brian Giles	60	36	0.579
Edgar Renteria	59	31	0.576
Jose Lopez	60	23	0.575
Aramis Ramirez	59	29	0.575
Chad Tracy	59	27	0.573
Richie Sexson	59	32	0.572
Magglio Ordonez	59	33	0.570
Johnny Damon	59	33	0.570
Hank Blalock	59	26	0.569
Justin Morneau	59	26	0.569
Curtis Granderson	59	26	0.569
Ryan Zimmerman	61	22	0.560
Lyle Overbay	58	30	0.556
Luis Castillo	58	31	0.555
Freddy Sanchez	58	29	0.554
Ryan Howard	58	27	0.553
David Wright	58	24	0.537
Luis Gonzalez	58	39	0.528
Alex Rodriguez	57	31	0.526
Orlando Hudson	57	29	0.525
Jason Bay	57	28	0.523
Victor Martinez	57	28	0.523
Randy Winn	57	33	0.520
Mike Lowell	57	33	0.520
Adrian Gonzalez	57	25	0.513
Miguel Cabrera	57	24	0.507
Omar Vizquel	57	40	0.490
Andruw Jones	56	30	0.487
Paul Konerko	56	31	0.486
Eric Byrnes	56	31	0.486
Brian Roberts	56	29	0.485
Adam Dunn	56	27	0.484
Kevin Youkilis	56	28	0.483
Jhonny Peralta	56	25	0.474
David Ortiz	55	31	0.472
Torii Hunter	55	31	0.472
Juan Encarnacion	55	31	0.472
Marcus Giles	55	29	0.471
Mike Cuddyer	55	28	0.469
Tadahito Iguchi	55	32	0.468
Jason Kendall	55	33	0.466
Nick Swisher	55	26	0.466
Prince Fielder	56	23	0.465
Jay Payton	55	34	0.462
Mike Cameron	55	34	0.462
Yuniesky Betancourt	55	25	0.460
Brandon Inge	54	30	0.443
Troy Glaus	54	30	0.443
Craig Monroe	54	30	0.443
Carlos Guillen	54	31	0.442
Jack Wilson	54	29	0.441
Joe Crede	54	29	0.441
Ron Belliard	54	32	0.438
Bobby Abreu	54	33	0.436
Todd Helton	54	33	0.436
Aaron Hill	54	25	0.430
Garret Anderson	54	35	0.428
Ivan Rodriguez	54	35	0.428
Mark Grudzielanek	54	37	0.420
Lance Berkman	53	31	0.419
Shea Hillenbrand	53	31	0.419
Austin Kearns	53	27	0.416
Albert Pujols	53	27	0.416
Bill Hall	53	27	0.416
Jacque Jones	53	32	0.416
Jermaine Dye	53	33	0.414
Brandon Phillips	53	26	0.412
Shawn Green	53	34	0.409
Ronny Cedeno	53	24	0.400
Josh Barfield	53	24	0.400
Craig Biggio	54	41	0.400
Scott Podsednik	52	31	0.382
Mark DeRosa	52	32	0.378
Emil Brown	52	32	0.378
Scott Rolen	52	32	0.378
Carlos Beltran	51	30	0.371
Adam Everett	51	30	0.371
Willy Taveras	52	25	0.369
Carlos Delgado	52	35	0.368
Jose Castillo	51	26	0.363
Joe Mauer	52	24	0.363
Paul Lo Duca	51	35	0.356
A.J. Pierzynski	50	30	0.344
Ramon Hernandez	50	31	0.342
Kenji Johjima	50	31	0.342
Mark Kotsay	50	31	0.342
Josh Willingham	50	28	0.340
Nick Johnson	50	28	0.340
David Eckstein	50	32	0.339
Preston Wilson	50	32	0.339
David Bell	50	34	0.333
Jason Michaels	49	31	0.329
J.D. Drew	49	31	0.329
Adam LaRoche	49	27	0.327
David DeJesus	49	27	0.327
Brad Hawpe	49	28	0.326
Dave Roberts	49	35	0.315
Ray Durham	49	35	0.315
Jim Thome	49	36	0.312
Nick Markakis	49	23	0.308
Eric Chavez	48	29	0.296
Geoff Jenkins	48	32	0.293
Pat Burrell	46	30	0.290
Reed Johnson	46	30	0.290
Placido Polanco	46	31	0.289
Juan Uribe	46	27	0.286
Corey Patterson	46	27	0.286
Xavier Nady	46	28	0.286
Jose Vidro	46	32	0.285
Conor Jackson	48	25	0.285
Nomar Garciaparra	46	33	0.283
Jamey Carroll	46	33	0.283
Mike Jacobs	46	26	0.282
Robinson Cano	48	24	0.279
Jorge Posada	46	35	0.275
Melky Cabrera	46	22	0.262
Frank Thomas	46	39	0.262
Jeff Conine	48	41	0.257
Kenny Lofton	46	40	0.253
Angel Berroa	47	29	0.253
Clint Barmes	47	28	0.250
Aaron Miles	42	30	0.243
Ben Broussard	43	30	0.241
Julio Lugo	43	31	0.239
Aubrey Huff	45	30	0.237
Travis Hafner	45	30	0.237
Miguel Olivo	43	28	0.237
Bengie Molina	43	32	0.237
Adam Kennedy	45	31	0.236
Ryan Freel	45	31	0.236
Nick Punto	45	29	0.235
Frank Catalanotto	43	33	0.234
Mark Ellis	44	30	0.233
Kevin Mench	44	29	0.231
Ty Wigginton	44	29	0.231
Ian Kinsler	42	25	0.230
Juan Rivera	44	28	0.229
Alexis Rios	45	26	0.229
Kevin Millar	43	35	0.226
Ronny Paulino	44	26	0.226
Aaron Rowand	40	29	0.225
Matt Murton	45	25	0.224
Todd Walker	44	34	0.223
Tony Graffanino	45	35	0.222
Ken Griffey	42	37	0.221
Rich Aurilia	44	35	0.220
Manny Ramirez	44	35	0.220
Casey Blake	40	33	0.220
Bernie Williams	42	38	0.219
Jose Bautista	40	26	0.219
Brad Ausmus	43	38	0.217
Jason Giambi	44	36	0.216
Scott Hatteberg	45	37	0.214
Royce Clayton	45	37	0.214
Brian McCann	44	23	0.212
Edwin Encarnacion	40	24	0.207
Alex Gonzalez	38	30	0.202
Morgan Ensberg	38	31	0.202
Mike Lamb	38	31	0.202
Cory Sullivan	38	27	0.200
Jeff Kent	40	39	0.198
Trot Nixon	38	33	0.197
Joey Gathright	38	26	0.195
Jonny Gomes	38	26	0.195
Brian Schneider	41	30	0.193
Johnny Estrada	41	31	0.192
Coco Crisp	41	27	0.190
Khalil Greene	41	27	0.190
Steve Finley	42	42	0.189
Sean Casey	39	32	0.186
Shane Victorino	41	26	0.185
Brady Clark	41	34	0.183
Jose Valentin	38	37	0.182
Jorge Cantu	41	25	0.181
Chipper Jones	41	35	0.180
Andre Ethier	39	25	0.177
Mark Teahen	39	25	0.177
Marco Scutaro	36	31	0.176
Russell Martin	41	24	0.174
Yadier Molina	41	24	0.174
Chris Burke	36	27	0.174
Phil Nevin	39	36	0.173
Craig Wilson	35	30	0.168
Mike Piazza	39	38	0.167
Michael Barrett	37	30	0.166
Endy Chavez	35	29	0.165
Milton Bradley	35	29	0.165
Rocco Baldelli	36	25	0.164
Brian N. Anderson	36	25	0.164
Bobby Crosby	35	27	0.164
Hector Luna	35	27	0.164
Jason Varitek	36	35	0.164
Chris Shelton	37	27	0.162
Maicer Izturis	35	26	0.159
John Buck	37	26	0.158
Aaron Boone	35	34	0.156
Wilson Betemit	37	25	0.153
Craig Counsell	37	36	0.149
Rickie Weeks	35	24	0.148
Jay Gibbons	34	30	0.146
Marcus Thames	34	30	0.146
Jim Edmonds	35	37	0.146
Rod Barajas	34	31	0.145
Travis Lee	34	32	0.141
Brad Wilkerson	32	30	0.140
Abraham Nunez	32	31	0.138
Javy Lopez	34	36	0.130
Barry Bonds	36	42	0.126
Alfredo Amezaga	33	29	0.125
Jason Bartlett	33	27	0.124
Damon Hollins	33	33	0.122
Matt Stairs	34	39	0.117
Cliff Floyd	33	34	0.117
Moises Alou	34	40	0.115
Rondell White	33	35	0.114
John McDonald	26	32	0.113
Bobby Kielty	27	30	0.113
Ryan Langerhans	31	27	0.112
Chris Duffy	31	27	0.112
David Dellucci	26	33	0.111
Toby Hall	27	31	0.111
Cody Ross	26	26	0.110
Eric Hinske	27	29	0.110
Esteban German	27	29	0.110
Reggie Sanders	32	39	0.110
Doug Mientkiewicz	31	33	0.109
Damian Miller	33	37	0.107
Marlon Anderson	27	33	0.106
Mike Napoli	26	25	0.105
Rob Mackowiak	25	31	0.104
Matt Diaz	29	29	0.103
Willie Bloomquist	25	29	0.103
Scott Spiezio	27	34	0.101
Geoff Blum	27	34	0.101
Mark Bellhorn	25	32	0.101
Chris Woodward	22	31	0.099
Wily Mo Pena	27	25	0.098
Nate McLouth	27	25	0.098
Brandon Fahey	25	26	0.097
Russ Adams	25	26	0.097
Reggie Abercrombie	25	26	0.097
Jeff Cirillo	26	37	0.097
Howie Kendrick	26	23	0.097
Dioner Navarro	26	23	0.097
Yorvit Torrealba	22	28	0.097
Jose Molina	22	32	0.097
Jason Lane	28	30	0.096
Greg Norton	29	34	0.096
Jeff Davanon	22	33	0.095
Miguel Cairo	22	33	0.095
Jose Cruz	22	33	0.095
So Taguchi	31	37	0.095
Neifi Perez	30	34	0.095
Corey Koskie	25	34	0.094
Jeromy Burnitz	31	38	0.093
Dan Johnson	28	27	0.092
Eliezer Alfonzo	28	28	0.091
Alex Cintron	28	28	0.091
Robb Quinlan	23	30	0.091
Lew Ford	23	30	0.091
Alex Cora	23	31	0.091
Juan Castro	25	35	0.091
Todd Hollandsworth	22	34	0.090
Carl Everett	30	36	0.090
Gregg Zaun	29	36	0.089
Chris Duncan	28	26	0.088
Omar Infante	22	25	0.087
Jason Kubel	22	25	0.087
Joe Borchard	23	28	0.086
Jeremy Hermida	30	23	0.085
Mark Sweeney	25	37	0.083
Vinny Castilla	27	39	0.083
Shane Costa	23	25	0.080
Corey Hart	23	25	0.080
Marlon Byrd	19	29	0.079
Cesar Izturis	19	27	0.079
Jason Smith	9	29	0.079
Ryan Church	19	28	0.078
Lance Niekro	19	28	0.078
Jason Tyner	21	30	0.078
Jason LaRue	19	33	0.077
Antonio Perez	9	27	0.077
J.D. Closser	9	27	0.077
Nook Logan	9	27	0.077
Chris Aguila	9	28	0.076
Chad Moeller	9	32	0.075
Luke Scott	21	29	0.075
Eric Bruntlett	11	29	0.074
Bernie Castro	11	27	0.074
Luis Rodriguez	11	27	0.074
Kelly Shoppach	11	27	0.074
Skip Schumaker	5	27	0.074
Darin Erstad	9	33	0.074
Eli Marrero	9	33	0.074
Jorge Piedra	5	28	0.073
Rob Bowen	9	26	0.073
Fernando Tatis	5	32	0.073
Nick Green	11	28	0.073
Chris Coste	19	34	0.073
Mike Sweeney	21	33	0.073
Jeremy Reed	21	26	0.072
Damian Jackson	11	33	0.072
Dave Ross	24	30	0.071
Andy Phillips	24	30	0.071
Henry Mateo	2	30	0.071
Russell Branyan	24	31	0.071
Wes Helms	24	31	0.071
Jose Guillen	24	31	0.071
Kazuo Matsui	24	31	0.071
George Lombard	2	31	0.070
Josh Bard	24	29	0.070
Ryan Spilborghs	16	27	0.070
Jason Botts	5	26	0.070
Jeff Salazar	5	26	0.070
Jeff Baker	5	26	0.070
Dallas McPherson	11	26	0.070
Gerald Laird	24	27	0.069
Larry Bigbie	2	29	0.069
Tomas Perez	24	33	0.068
John Hattig	2	27	0.068
Humberto Quintero	2	27	0.068
Mike Rouse	2	27	0.068
Adam Stern	2	27	0.068
Chris Snelling	9	25	0.068
Kevin Frandsen	9	25	0.068
Randall Simon	2	32	0.067
Greg Dobbs	2	28	0.067
Eddie Rogers	2	28	0.067
Matt LeCroy	6	31	0.067
Kevin Witt	6	31	0.067
Ramon Vazquez	6	30	0.067
Paul Phillips	6	30	0.067
Jason Phillips	4	30	0.067
Dustan Mohr	4	31	0.066
Brandon Harper	4	31	0.066
Chris Roberson	4	27	0.065
Luis Terrero	4	27	0.065
Javier Valentin	18	31	0.065
Kevin Kouzmanoff	5	25	0.064
Willie Harris	4	29	0.064
Pablo Ozuna	18	32	0.064
John Rodriguez	18	29	0.064
Henry Blanco	24	35	0.064
Kendry Morales	19	24	0.064
Shawn Riggans	2	26	0.064
Sean Burroughs	2	26	0.064
Chris Widger	9	36	0.064
Josh Rabe	4	28	0.063
Terry Tiffee	4	28	0.063
John Mabry	21	36	0.063
Gabe Kapler	13	31	0.063
Kerry Robinson	6	33	0.063
Carlos Ruiz	6	28	0.062
Jeff Keppinger	6	27	0.062
Raul Chavez	2	34	0.061
Ryan Theriot	13	27	0.061
Freddie Bynum	13	27	0.061
Ben Zobrist	18	26	0.061
Ryan Garko	18	26	0.061
Chris Snyder	18	26	0.061
Laynce Nix	6	26	0.060
Matt Treanor	15	31	0.060
Ross Gload	15	31	0.060
Ray Olmedo	4	26	0.060
Eric Reed	4	26	0.060
Reggie Willits	4	26	0.060
Tony Pena	4	26	0.060
Brendan Harris	4	26	0.060
Terrmel Sledge	7	30	0.060
Luis Matos	13	28	0.060
Bubba Crosby	8	30	0.060
Alexis Gomez	10	28	0.060
Humberto Cota	10	28	0.060
Michael Tucker	5	36	0.059
Rene Rivera	9	23	0.059
Joe Inglett	20	29	0.059
Kelly Stinnett	9	37	0.059
Daryle Ward	13	32	0.059
Mike Matheny	16	36	0.058
David Newhan	13	33	0.058
David Murphy	2	25	0.058
Brandon Watson	2	25	0.058
Jeff Mathis	5	24	0.058
Matt Lawton	2	35	0.058
Mike Rivera	14	30	0.058
Ryan Shealy	20	27	0.058
Gabe Gross	20	27	0.058
Sal Fasano	18	35	0.058
Andy Green	8	29	0.058
Jason Ellison	8	29	0.058
D'Angelo Jimenez	7	29	0.057
Nelson Cruz	13	26	0.057
Jason Repko	13	26	0.057
Willy Aybar	24	24	0.057
Chris Denorfia	10	26	0.057
Carlos Quentin	16	24	0.057
Pete Orr	15	28	0.057
Eric Munson	14	29	0.056
Josh Paul	14	32	0.056
Oscar Robles	3	31	0.056
Terrence Long	3	31	0.056
Quinton McCracken	5	37	0.056
Tommy Murphy	7	27	0.056
Todd Linden	7	27	0.056
Mike Edwards	1	30	0.056
Alex Escobar	8	28	0.056
Orlando Palmeiro	11	38	0.055
Tony Womack	6	37	0.055
Ramon Santiago	8	27	0.055
Chris Barnwell	3	28	0.055
Norris Hopper	3	28	0.055
Danny Sandoval	3	28	0.055
Mike Morse	4	25	0.055
Brayan Pena	4	25	0.055
Miguel Ojeda	8	32	0.055
Andy Marte	16	23	0.054
Luis A. Gonzalez	14	28	0.054
Dewayne Wise	3	29	0.054
Carlos Pena	3	29	0.054
Tim Salmon	21	38	0.054
Aaron Guiel	13	34	0.054
Troy Tulowitzki	9	22	0.054
Eduardo Perez	18	37	0.054
Damion Easley	18	37	0.054
Kevin Thompson	3	27	0.054
Roberto Petagine	2	36	0.054
Kevin Barker	1	31	0.054
Hiram Bocachica	1	31	0.054
Doug Mirabelli	18	36	0.054
Ryan Doumit	14	26	0.053
Adrian Brown	3	33	0.053
Wiki Gonzalez	3	33	0.053
Timo Perez	3	32	0.053
Vance Wilson	15	34	0.053
Geovany Soto	2	24	0.053
Josh Fields	2	24	0.053
Ricky Ledee	8	33	0.053
Edgardo Alfonzo	8	33	0.053
Matt Cepicky	1	29	0.052
Mike Vento	1	29	0.052
Kevin Reese	1	29	0.052
Tomas de la Rosa	1	29	0.052
John Gall	1	29	0.052
Adam Lind	6	23	0.052
Anderson Hernandez	6	24	0.052
Mike Rose	0	30	0.052
Kevin Hooper	0	30	0.052
Robby Hammock	0	30	0.052
Joe Thurston	1	27	0.052
Vinny Rottino	1	27	0.052
T.J. Bohn	1	27	0.052
Scott Hairston	1	27	0.052
Jeremy Brown	1	27	0.052
Bill Mueller	10	36	0.051
Michael Restovich	1	28	0.051
Carlos Maldonado	1	28	0.051
Paul Hoover	0	31	0.050
Doug Clark	0	31	0.050
Corky Miller	0	31	0.050
Luis Ordaz	0	31	0.050
Tony Clark	13	35	0.050
Alberto Callaspo	4	24	0.050
Robert Andino	2	23	0.050
Angel Sanchez	2	23	0.050
Travis Ishikawa	2	23	0.050
Wil Nieves	0	29	0.050
Justin Leone	0	29	0.050
Mike Difelice	2	38	0.049
Curtis Pride	2	38	0.049
Mike Lieberthal	20	35	0.049
Lastings Milledge	16	22	0.049
Charlton Jimerson	0	27	0.048
Mike Rabelo	0	27	0.048
Jack Hannahan	0	27	0.048
J.R. House	0	27	0.048
Yurendell DeCaster	0	27	0.048
Paul Bako	15	35	0.048
Gary Bennett	15	35	0.048
Omar Quintanilla	3	25	0.048
Andy Cannizaro	0	28	0.047
Jon Knott	0	28	0.047
John Nelson	0	28	0.047
Jack Cust	0	28	0.047
Stephen Drew	20	24	0.047
Paul McAnulty	1	26	0.047
Dan Ortmeier	1	26	0.047
Fred Lewis	1	26	0.047
Rajai Davis	1	26	0.047
Ryan Roberts	1	26	0.047
Martin Prado	4	23	0.047
Erick Aybar	4	23	0.047
Franklin Gutierrez	13	24	0.047
Derrek Lee	17	31	0.047
Jerry Hairston	17	31	0.047
Brian Jordan	9	40	0.047
Chris Heintz	0	32	0.046
James Loney	10	23	0.046
Luis Figueroa	0	33	0.046
Howie Clark	0	33	0.046
Gary Sheffield	15	38	0.046
Chris Gomez	13	36	0.046
Justin Knoedler	0	26	0.046
Freddy Guzman	0	26	0.046
Jerry Owens	0	26	0.046
Chad Santos	0	26	0.046
Drew Anderson	0	26	0.046
Shin-Soo Choo	15	24	0.045
Choo Freeman	17	27	0.045
Alex Gonzalez	3	34	0.045
Jose Hernandez	15	37	0.045
Shannon Stewart	17	33	0.045
Dmitri Young	17	33	0.045
Hideki Matsui	17	33	0.045
Tony Batista	17	33	0.045
Manny Alexander	3	36	0.045
Joe Randa	20	37	0.045
Chris Iannetta	7	24	0.044
Casey Kotchman	7	24	0.044
Tony Gwynn	7	24	0.044
Chris Young	7	23	0.044
Todd Greene	15	36	0.044
Dustin Pedroia	8	23	0.043
Andres Blanco	8	23	0.043
J.T. Snow	4	39	0.042
Jeff Fiorentino	3	24	0.042
Mitch Maier	1	25	0.042
Drew Meyer	1	25	0.042
Buck Coats	1	25	0.042
Victor Diaz	1	25	0.042
Melvin Dorta	1	25	0.042
Chad Mottola	1	35	0.042
Andy Abad	0	34	0.042
Einar Diaz	0	34	0.042
Joe McEwing	0	34	0.042
Angel Pagan	17	25	0.041
Ramon Castro	12	31	0.041
Scott Moore	3	23	0.041
Brent Clevlen	3	23	0.041
Jose Vizcaino	14	39	0.041
Alvin Colina	0	25	0.040
Guillermo Quiroz	0	25	0.040
Chris Stewart	0	25	0.040
Delwyn Young	0	25	0.040
Lou Merloni	1	36	0.039
Danny Ardoin	12	32	0.039
Ramon Martinez	17	34	0.039
Olmedo Saenz	17	36	0.039
Mike Redmond	17	36	0.039
Matt Kemp	15	22	0.039
Robert Fick	12	33	0.038
Adam Hyzdu	0	35	0.038
Tim Laker	1	37	0.037
Jason Wood	1	37	0.037
Justin Huber	1	24	0.037
Ben Johnson	12	26	0.037
Todd Pratt	13	40	0.036
Eric Young	13	40	0.036
Ryan Sweeney	3	22	0.036
Adam Melhuse	12	35	0.036
Adam Jones	7	21	0.036
Miguel Montero	1	23	0.035
Scott Thorman	12	25	0.035
Jose Reyes	0	24	0.034
Hector Gimenez	0	24	0.034
Michael Bourn	0	24	0.034
Sandy Alomar	10	41	0.033
Ken Huckaby	0	36	0.033
Ryan Klesko	0	36	0.033
B.J. Upton	17	22	0.033
Ruben Sierra	2	41	0.031
Julio Franco	16	48	0.031
J.J. Hardy	12	24	0.031
Joaquin Arias	1	22	0.030
Joel Guzman	1	22	0.030
Alexi Casilla	0	22	0.027
Oswaldo Navarro	0	22	0.027
Delmon Young	12	21	0.025

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

In thinking about Michael Young's chances of continuing to post 200 hits a year, it struck me that one thing the various projection system don't tell me is the probability of the various stats they are predicting. So today I've been working on a probability distribution that should give us a clue to questions like, what is the probability of a batter reaching at least 500 AB in 2007?

The study looks at batters since 1901, excluding pitchers. Two distributions were developed. One asks for the probability of an at bat level given the players at bat in the previous season. The other asks for the the probability of an at bat level given the player's seasonal age. By at bat level, I perform an integer divide by ten on the number of at bats, basically putting 10 different values into the same bin. Bin 44 represents everyone with at bats in a season between 440 and 449.

To get the final probability, the two individual distributions are averaged together, weighted equally. It's a simple way of mixing the probabilities, but the results look pretty good:

Probability of Reaching at Least 500 At Bats in 2007

Hitter	Prev. AB/10	2007 Age	Probability
Juan Pierre	69	29	0.527
Michael Young	69	30	0.525
Alfonso Soriano	64	31	0.522
Miguel Tejada	64	31	0.522
Ichiro Suzuki	69	33	0.521
Jimmy Rollins	68	28	0.511
Rafael Furcal	65	29	0.502
Chase Utley	65	28	0.499
Jose Reyes	64	24	0.484
Mark Loretta	63	35	0.479
Grady Sizemore	65	24	0.474
Carlos Lee	62	31	0.473
Vladimir Guerrero	60	31	0.470
Mark Teixeira	62	27	0.468
Chone Figgins	60	29	0.468
Jeff Francoeur	65	23	0.468
Adrian Beltre	62	28	0.467
Gary Matthews	62	32	0.466
Garrett Atkins	60	27	0.465
Matt Holliday	60	27	0.465
Hanley Ramirez	63	23	0.464
Orlando Cabrera	60	32	0.462
Pedro Feliz	60	32	0.462
Derek Jeter	62	33	0.461
Dan Uggla	61	27	0.458
Felipe Lopez	61	27	0.458
Vernon Wells	61	28	0.457
Edgar Renteria	59	31	0.456
Aramis Ramirez	59	29	0.454
Chad Tracy	59	27	0.450
Richie Sexson	59	32	0.448
Raul Ibanez	62	35	0.445
Melvin Mora	62	35	0.445
Carl Crawford	60	25	0.445
Lyle Overbay	58	30	0.444
Johnny Damon	59	33	0.443
Magglio Ordonez	59	33	0.443
Luis Castillo	58	31	0.442
Hank Blalock	59	26	0.442
Justin Morneau	59	26	0.442
Curtis Granderson	59	26	0.442
Freddy Sanchez	58	29	0.440
Ryan Howard	58	27	0.437
Brian Giles	60	36	0.434
Jose Lopez	60	23	0.426
Alex Rodriguez	57	31	0.423
Orlando Hudson	57	29	0.421
Jason Bay	57	28	0.416
Victor Martinez	57	28	0.416
Mike Lowell	57	33	0.410
Randy Winn	57	33	0.410
Ryan Zimmerman	61	22	0.410
David Wright	58	24	0.405
Andruw Jones	56	30	0.398
Adrian Gonzalez	57	25	0.397
Eric Byrnes	56	31	0.396
Paul Konerko	56	31	0.396
Brian Roberts	56	29	0.394
Adam Dunn	56	27	0.391
Kevin Youkilis	56	28	0.390
Luis Gonzalez	58	39	0.387
Torii Hunter	55	31	0.387
David Ortiz	55	31	0.387
Juan Encarnacion	55	31	0.387
Marcus Giles	55	29	0.385
Miguel Cabrera	57	24	0.385
Mike Cuddyer	55	28	0.380
Tadahito Iguchi	55	32	0.379
Jason Kendall	55	33	0.375
Nick Swisher	55	26	0.374
Jhonny Peralta	56	25	0.371
Troy Glaus	54	30	0.368
Craig Monroe	54	30	0.368
Brandon Inge	54	30	0.368
Carlos Guillen	54	31	0.366
Mike Cameron	55	34	0.366
Jay Payton	55	34	0.366
Jack Wilson	54	29	0.364
Joe Crede	54	29	0.364
Yuniesky Betancourt	55	25	0.362
Ron Belliard	54	32	0.359
Todd Helton	54	33	0.355
Bobby Abreu	54	33	0.355
Prince Fielder	56	23	0.353
Omar Vizquel	57	40	0.351
Shea Hillenbrand	53	31	0.349
Lance Berkman	53	31	0.349
Albert Pujols	53	27	0.343
Austin Kearns	53	27	0.343
Bill Hall	53	27	0.343
Jacque Jones	53	32	0.343
Aaron Hill	54	25	0.341
Jermaine Dye	53	33	0.339
Ivan Rodriguez	54	35	0.338
Garret Anderson	54	35	0.338
Brandon Phillips	53	26	0.335
Shawn Green	53	34	0.328
Scott Podsednik	52	31	0.326
Mark Grudzielanek	54	37	0.322
Adam Everett	51	30	0.320
Carlos Beltran	51	30	0.320
Scott Rolen	52	32	0.319
Emil Brown	52	32	0.319
Mark DeRosa	52	32	0.319
Ronny Cedeno	53	24	0.312
Josh Barfield	53	24	0.312
Jose Castillo	51	26	0.304
A.J. Pierzynski	50	30	0.302
Willy Taveras	52	25	0.301
Carlos Delgado	52	35	0.298
Kenji Johjima	50	31	0.298
Mark Kotsay	50	31	0.298
Ramon Hernandez	50	31	0.298
Josh Willingham	50	28	0.292
Nick Johnson	50	28	0.292
David Eckstein	50	32	0.292
Preston Wilson	50	32	0.292
Jason Michaels	49	31	0.290
J.D. Drew	49	31	0.290
Paul Lo Duca	51	35	0.289
Joe Mauer	52	24	0.289
David DeJesus	49	27	0.286
Adam LaRoche	49	27	0.286
Brad Hawpe	49	28	0.284
Craig Biggio	54	41	0.282
David Bell	50	34	0.278
Reed Johnson	46	30	0.266
Pat Burrell	46	30	0.266
Placido Polanco	46	31	0.265
Eric Chavez	48	29	0.264
Ray Durham	49	35	0.262
Dave Roberts	49	35	0.262
Corey Patterson	46	27	0.259
Juan Uribe	46	27	0.259
Geoff Jenkins	48	32	0.259
Xavier Nady	46	28	0.258
Jose Vidro	46	32	0.257
Jim Thome	49	36	0.256
Nomar Garciaparra	46	33	0.252
Jamey Carroll	46	33	0.252
Mike Jacobs	46	26	0.251
Nick Markakis	49	23	0.247
Conor Jackson	48	25	0.242
Angel Berroa	47	29	0.237
Jorge Posada	46	35	0.237
Aaron Miles	42	30	0.233
Ben Broussard	43	30	0.233
Clint Barmes	47	28	0.233
Travis Hafner	45	30	0.231
Aubrey Huff	45	30	0.231
Robinson Cano	48	24	0.230
Julio Lugo	43	31	0.229
Ryan Freel	45	31	0.229
Adam Kennedy	45	31	0.229
Nick Punto	45	29	0.227
Miguel Olivo	43	28	0.224
Bengie Molina	43	32	0.224
Mark Ellis	44	30	0.223
Aaron Rowand	40	29	0.219
Frank Catalanotto	43	33	0.219
Kevin Mench	44	29	0.218
Ty Wigginton	44	29	0.218
Juan Rivera	44	28	0.215
Alexis Rios	45	26	0.215
Melky Cabrera	46	22	0.211
Casey Blake	40	33	0.210
Frank Thomas	46	39	0.210
Jose Bautista	40	26	0.208
Ronny Paulino	44	26	0.208
Ian Kinsler	42	25	0.207
Matt Murton	45	25	0.204
Todd Walker	44	34	0.203
Kevin Millar	43	35	0.203
Alex Gonzalez	38	30	0.202
Morgan Ensberg	38	31	0.201
Mike Lamb	38	31	0.201
Tony Graffanino	45	35	0.201
Brian Schneider	41	30	0.198
Manny Ramirez	44	35	0.197
Rich Aurilia	44	35	0.197
Cory Sullivan	38	27	0.197
Johnny Estrada	41	31	0.197
Kenny Lofton	46	40	0.193
Trot Nixon	38	33	0.192
Coco Crisp	41	27	0.191
Khalil Greene	41	27	0.191
Ken Griffey	42	37	0.190
Sean Casey	39	32	0.188
Jason Giambi	44	36	0.188
Joey Gathright	38	26	0.187
Jonny Gomes	38	26	0.187
Jeff Conine	48	41	0.187
Bernie Williams	42	38	0.186
Royce Clayton	45	37	0.185
Scott Hatteberg	45	37	0.185
Marco Scutaro	36	31	0.185
Brad Ausmus	43	38	0.184
Edwin Encarnacion	40	24	0.184
Craig Wilson	35	30	0.183
Shane Victorino	41	26	0.182
Brian McCann	44	23	0.180
Chris Burke	36	27	0.179
Michael Barrett	37	30	0.179
Brady Clark	41	34	0.178
Milton Bradley	35	29	0.178
Endy Chavez	35	29	0.178
Hector Luna	35	27	0.175
Bobby Crosby	35	27	0.175
Jorge Cantu	41	25	0.173
Chris Shelton	37	27	0.172
Chipper Jones	41	35	0.171
Andre Ethier	39	25	0.170
Mark Teahen	39	25	0.170
Maicer Izturis	35	26	0.167
Jeff Kent	40	39	0.166
Brad Wilkerson	32	30	0.165
Jay Gibbons	34	30	0.164
Marcus Thames	34	30	0.164
John Buck	37	26	0.163
Jose Valentin	38	37	0.162
Abraham Nunez	32	31	0.162
Phil Nevin	39	36	0.161
Brian N. Anderson	36	25	0.161
Rocco Baldelli	36	25	0.161
Russell Martin	41	24	0.161
Yadier Molina	41	24	0.161
Rod Barajas	34	31	0.160
Aaron Boone	35	34	0.160
Jason Varitek	36	35	0.159
Travis Lee	34	32	0.154
Wilson Betemit	37	25	0.152
Mike Piazza	39	38	0.150
Bobby Kielty	27	30	0.147
Alfredo Amezaga	33	29	0.147
Jason Bartlett	33	27	0.146
Rickie Weeks	35	24	0.144
Toby Hall	27	31	0.144
Craig Counsell	37	36	0.144
Eric Hinske	27	29	0.142
Esteban German	27	29	0.142
Damon Hollins	33	33	0.142
Jim Edmonds	35	37	0.139
Rob Mackowiak	25	31	0.139
John McDonald	26	32	0.137
Willie Bloomquist	25	29	0.137
Chris Duffy	31	27	0.137
Ryan Langerhans	31	27	0.137
David Dellucci	26	33	0.134
Marlon Anderson	27	33	0.134
Chris Woodward	22	31	0.133
Mark Bellhorn	25	32	0.133
Matt Diaz	29	29	0.133
Cody Ross	26	26	0.132
Cliff Floyd	33	34	0.132
Doug Mientkiewicz	31	33	0.132
Javy Lopez	34	36	0.131
Yorvit Torrealba	22	28	0.128
Jose Molina	22	32	0.128
Jason Lane	28	30	0.127
Rondell White	33	35	0.126
Steve Finley	42	42	0.126
Brandon Fahey	25	26	0.126
Reggie Abercrombie	25	26	0.126
Russ Adams	25	26	0.126
Jeff Davanon	22	33	0.125
Jose Cruz	22	33	0.125
Miguel Cairo	22	33	0.125
Scott Spiezio	27	34	0.124
Geoff Blum	27	34	0.124
Mike Napoli	26	25	0.122
Corey Koskie	25	34	0.120
Jason Smith	9	29	0.119
Robb Quinlan	23	30	0.119
Lew Ford	23	30	0.119
Dan Johnson	28	27	0.119
Alex Cora	23	31	0.119
Nate McLouth	27	25	0.118
Wily Mo Pena	27	25	0.118
Alex Cintron	28	28	0.118
Eliezer Alfonzo	28	28	0.118
Greg Norton	29	34	0.118
Henry Mateo	2	30	0.116
Skip Schumaker	5	27	0.115
J.D. Closser	9	27	0.115
Nook Logan	9	27	0.115
Antonio Perez	9	27	0.115
Todd Hollandsworth	22	34	0.115
Jorge Piedra	5	28	0.115
Fernando Tatis	5	32	0.114
Chris Aguila	9	28	0.114
Eric Bruntlett	11	29	0.113
George Lombard	2	31	0.113
Jason Tyner	21	30	0.113
Chad Moeller	9	32	0.113
Juan Castro	25	35	0.113
Luis Rodriguez	11	27	0.112
Bernie Castro	11	27	0.112
Kelly Shoppach	11	27	0.112
Damian Miller	33	37	0.112
Marlon Byrd	19	29	0.112
Cesar Izturis	19	27	0.112
Chris Duncan	28	26	0.111
Nick Green	11	28	0.111
Lance Niekro	19	28	0.111
Ryan Church	19	28	0.111
Larry Bigbie	2	29	0.110
Joe Borchard	23	28	0.110
Darin Erstad	9	33	0.109
Eli Marrero	9	33	0.109
Neifi Perez	30	34	0.109
Omar Infante	22	25	0.109
Jason Kubel	22	25	0.109
Mike Rouse	2	27	0.109
Adam Stern	2	27	0.109
John Hattig	2	27	0.109
Humberto Quintero	2	27	0.109
Rob Bowen	9	26	0.108
Luke Scott	21	29	0.108
Damian Jackson	11	33	0.108
Jason LaRue	19	33	0.108
Jeff Baker	5	26	0.108
Jeff Salazar	5	26	0.108
Jason Botts	5	26	0.108
Randall Simon	2	32	0.107
Greg Dobbs	2	28	0.107
Eddie Rogers	2	28	0.107
Jason Phillips	4	30	0.106
Matt Stairs	34	39	0.106
Reggie Sanders	32	39	0.105
Jeff Cirillo	26	37	0.105
Dustan Mohr	4	31	0.105
Brandon Harper	4	31	0.105
Howie Kendrick	26	23	0.105
Dioner Navarro	26	23	0.105
Dallas McPherson	11	26	0.104
Gregg Zaun	29	36	0.104
So Taguchi	31	37	0.103
Chris Roberson	4	27	0.103
Luis Terrero	4	27	0.103
Mike Sweeney	21	33	0.102
Willie Harris	4	29	0.102
Jeremy Reed	21	26	0.101
Moises Alou	34	40	0.101
Shawn Riggans	2	26	0.101
Sean Burroughs	2	26	0.101
Mike Edwards	1	30	0.100
Josh Rabe	4	28	0.100
Terry Tiffee	4	28	0.100
Chris Coste	19	34	0.100
Jeromy Burnitz	31	38	0.099
Gabe Kapler	13	31	0.099
Carl Everett	30	36	0.099
Ryan Spilborghs	16	27	0.098
Mark Sweeney	25	37	0.098
Kevin Frandsen	9	25	0.097
Chris Snelling	9	25	0.097
Kevin Kouzmanoff	5	25	0.097
Shane Costa	23	25	0.097
Corey Hart	23	25	0.097
Mike Rose	0	30	0.096
Kevin Hooper	0	30	0.096
Robby Hammock	0	30	0.096
Kevin Barker	1	31	0.096
Hiram Bocachica	1	31	0.096
Raul Chavez	2	34	0.096
Freddie Bynum	13	27	0.095
Ryan Theriot	13	27	0.095
Bubba Crosby	8	30	0.095
Dave Ross	24	30	0.094
Andy Phillips	24	30	0.094
Jose Guillen	24	31	0.094
Wes Helms	24	31	0.094
Kazuo Matsui	24	31	0.094
Russell Branyan	24	31	0.094
Doug Clark	0	31	0.093
Corky Miller	0	31	0.093
Luis Ordaz	0	31	0.093
Paul Hoover	0	31	0.093
Matt LeCroy	6	31	0.093
Kevin Witt	6	31	0.093
Paul Phillips	6	30	0.093
Ramon Vazquez	6	30	0.093
Brendan Harris	4	26	0.093
Eric Reed	4	26	0.093
Ray Olmedo	4	26	0.093
Reggie Willits	4	26	0.093
Tony Pena	4	26	0.093
Luis Matos	13	28	0.093
Kevin Reese	1	29	0.093
Tomas de la Rosa	1	29	0.093
Mike Vento	1	29	0.093
Matt Cepicky	1	29	0.093
John Gall	1	29	0.093
Vinny Rottino	1	27	0.092
Jeremy Brown	1	27	0.092
Scott Hairston	1	27	0.092
T.J. Bohn	1	27	0.092
Joe Thurston	1	27	0.092
Justin Leone	0	29	0.092
Wil Nieves	0	29	0.092
Matt Treanor	15	31	0.091
Ross Gload	15	31	0.091
Josh Bard	24	29	0.091
Andy Green	8	29	0.091
Jason Ellison	8	29	0.091
Daryle Ward	13	32	0.091
Carlos Maldonado	1	28	0.090
Michael Restovich	1	28	0.090
Alexis Gomez	10	28	0.090
Humberto Cota	10	28	0.090
David Newhan	13	33	0.090
Brandon Watson	2	25	0.090
David Murphy	2	25	0.090
Terrmel Sledge	7	30	0.090
Chris Widger	9	36	0.089
Matt Lawton	2	35	0.089
J.R. House	0	27	0.089
Charlton Jimerson	0	27	0.089
Mike Rabelo	0	27	0.089
Jack Hannahan	0	27	0.089
Yurendell DeCaster	0	27	0.089
Jeremy Hermida	30	23	0.089
Terrence Long	3	31	0.089
Oscar Robles	3	31	0.089
Javier Valentin	18	31	0.089
Gerald Laird	24	27	0.089
Tomas Perez	24	33	0.088
Nelson Cruz	13	26	0.088
Jason Repko	13	26	0.088
Pablo Ozuna	18	32	0.088
Vinny Castilla	27	39	0.087
John Rodriguez	18	29	0.087
Danny Sandoval	3	28	0.087
Norris Hopper	3	28	0.087
Chris Barnwell	3	28	0.087
Jack Cust	0	28	0.087
Andy Cannizaro	0	28	0.087
Jon Knott	0	28	0.087
John Nelson	0	28	0.087
Michael Tucker	5	36	0.087
Mike Rivera	14	30	0.087
Alex Escobar	8	28	0.086
Ramon Santiago	8	27	0.086
Dewayne Wise	3	29	0.085
Carlos Pena	3	29	0.085
Miguel Ojeda	8	32	0.085
Chris Heintz	0	32	0.085
Pete Orr	15	28	0.085
Kerry Robinson	6	33	0.085
Kevin Thompson	3	27	0.085
Chris Denorfia	10	26	0.085
D'Angelo Jimenez	7	29	0.084
Jeff Mathis	5	24	0.084
Carlos Ruiz	6	28	0.084
Jeff Keppinger	6	27	0.084
Luis Figueroa	0	33	0.084
Howie Clark	0	33	0.084
Barry Bonds	36	42	0.084
Adrian Brown	3	33	0.084
Wiki Gonzalez	3	33	0.084
Joe Inglett	20	29	0.083
Timo Perez	3	32	0.083
Justin Knoedler	0	26	0.083
Freddy Guzman	0	26	0.083
Jerry Owens	0	26	0.083
Chad Santos	0	26	0.083
Drew Anderson	0	26	0.083
Eric Munson	14	29	0.083
John Mabry	21	36	0.083
Mike Morse	4	25	0.083
Brayan Pena	4	25	0.083
Josh Paul	14	32	0.083
Paul McAnulty	1	26	0.083
Dan Ortmeier	1	26	0.083
Fred Lewis	1	26	0.083
Ryan Roberts	1	26	0.083
Rajai Davis	1	26	0.083
Kendry Morales	19	24	0.082
Gabe Gross	20	27	0.081
Ryan Shealy	20	27	0.081
Aaron Guiel	13	34	0.081
Todd Linden	7	27	0.081
Tommy Murphy	7	27	0.081
Roberto Petagine	2	36	0.080
Ryan Garko	18	26	0.080
Chris Snyder	18	26	0.080
Ben Zobrist	18	26	0.080
Edgardo Alfonzo	8	33	0.080
Ricky Ledee	8	33	0.080
Laynce Nix	6	26	0.080
Rene Rivera	9	23	0.080
Henry Blanco	24	35	0.080
Kelly Stinnett	9	37	0.080
Quinton McCracken	5	37	0.079
Luis A. Gonzalez	14	28	0.079
Josh Fields	2	24	0.078
Geovany Soto	2	24	0.078
Ryan Doumit	14	26	0.077
Vance Wilson	15	34	0.077
Orlando Palmeiro	11	38	0.076
Mike Matheny	16	36	0.076
Joe McEwing	0	34	0.076
Einar Diaz	0	34	0.076
Andy Abad	0	34	0.076
Sal Fasano	18	35	0.075
Tony Clark	13	35	0.074
Alberto Callaspo	4	24	0.073
Robert Andino	2	23	0.073
Angel Sanchez	2	23	0.073
Travis Ishikawa	2	23	0.073
Drew Meyer	1	25	0.073
Melvin Dorta	1	25	0.073
Victor Diaz	1	25	0.073
Buck Coats	1	25	0.073
Mitch Maier	1	25	0.073
Chad Mottola	1	35	0.073
Chris Stewart	0	25	0.072
Delwyn Young	0	25	0.072
Guillermo Quiroz	0	25	0.072
Alvin Colina	0	25	0.072
Bill Mueller	10	36	0.072
Carlos Quentin	16	24	0.072
Omar Quintanilla	3	25	0.072
Curtis Pride	2	38	0.072
Mike Difelice	2	38	0.072
Tony Womack	6	37	0.070
Troy Tulowitzki	9	22	0.070
Derrek Lee	17	31	0.070
Jerry Hairston	17	31	0.070
Alex Gonzalez	3	34	0.068
Andy Marte	16	23	0.068
Lou Merloni	1	36	0.067
Adam Hyzdu	0	35	0.067
Manny Alexander	3	36	0.067
Choo Freeman	17	27	0.067
Franklin Gutierrez	13	24	0.067
Erick Aybar	4	23	0.067
Martin Prado	4	23	0.067
Eduardo Perez	18	37	0.067
Damion Easley	18	37	0.067
Gary Bennett	15	35	0.066
Paul Bako	15	35	0.066
Doug Mirabelli	18	36	0.066
Hideki Matsui	17	33	0.066
Dmitri Young	17	33	0.066
Tony Batista	17	33	0.066
Shannon Stewart	17	33	0.066
Willy Aybar	24	24	0.066
Tim Salmon	21	38	0.065
Chris Gomez	13	36	0.065
Mike Lieberthal	20	35	0.064
Adam Lind	6	23	0.064
Anderson Hernandez	6	24	0.063
Jason Wood	1	37	0.063
Tim Laker	1	37	0.063
Justin Huber	1	24	0.063
James Loney	10	23	0.063
Gary Sheffield	15	38	0.063
Ramon Castro	12	31	0.062
Shin-Soo Choo	15	24	0.062
Jose Hernandez	15	37	0.061
Jeff Fiorentino	3	24	0.061
Hector Gimenez	0	24	0.061
Jose Reyes	0	24	0.061
Michael Bourn	0	24	0.061
Andres Blanco	8	23	0.061
Dustin Pedroia	8	23	0.061
Stephen Drew	20	24	0.060
Miguel Montero	1	23	0.060
Brent Clevlen	3	23	0.059
Scott Moore	3	23	0.059
Todd Greene	15	36	0.059
Angel Pagan	17	25	0.059
Danny Ardoin	12	32	0.059
Ryan Klesko	0	36	0.058
Ken Huckaby	0	36	0.058
Casey Kotchman	7	24	0.058
Tony Gwynn	7	24	0.058
Chris Iannetta	7	24	0.058
Chris Young	7	23	0.058
J.T. Snow	4	39	0.057
Lastings Milledge	16	22	0.057
Robert Fick	12	33	0.056
Brian Jordan	9	40	0.055
Ramon Martinez	17	34	0.055
Joe Randa	20	37	0.055
Olmedo Saenz	17	36	0.054
Mike Redmond	17	36	0.054
Ben Johnson	12	26	0.053
Jose Vizcaino	14	39	0.052
Adam Melhuse	12	35	0.052
Ryan Sweeney	3	22	0.050
Scott Thorman	12	25	0.049
Joaquin Arias	1	22	0.049
Joel Guzman	1	22	0.049
Matt Kemp	15	22	0.049
Alexi Casilla	0	22	0.047
Oswaldo Navarro	0	22	0.047
Todd Pratt	13	40	0.046
Eric Young	13	40	0.046
B.J. Upton	17	22	0.041
J.J. Hardy	12	24	0.041
Adam Jones	7	21	0.041
Sandy Alomar	10	41	0.037
Ruben Sierra	2	41	0.036
Delmon Young	12	21	0.030
Julio Franco	16	48	0.021

The Bill James Handbook: Projections Update 2007 are now available. Lots of things change between October and March, and these projections incorporate trades and free agent signings. From the press release:

The Bill James Handbook: Projections Update 2007 is an Excel spreadsheet and includes the player's league and 2006 MLB position(s) for your sorting convenience. The spreadsheet allows you to manipulate the data in a dynamic way and tailor it to suit your own interests!

We provide the hitter projections on multiple tabs; in alphabetical order and by positions (including DH). The hitter projections by positions show hitters on a position list if they played at that position 20 or more 2006 MLB games. If that qualifies them for multiple positions, we show them on multiple tabs (without limit) with an asterisk by their name. For those players who did not appear in 20 games at any one position, we pick the list where they played most.

Enjoy!

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

The community projection at Minor League Ball for Zack Greinke is pretty optimistic. I really like this idea of using the wisdom of the crowd to predict players, so it will be interesting to see how well this particular projection matches.

The Baseball Crank looks at how Established Win Share Levels did on a team basis last year.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co. hosts a round table discussion of the NL Central. Each guest picked the division 1-6. I went back to a previous post from the owner of the blog and took down his picks as well. I then added all the places together to come up with this combined prediction for the NL Central (lowest points the best):

Team	Sum of Rank
Milwaukee	12
Chicago	14
St. Louis	16
Houston	24
Cincinnati	25
Pittsburgh	35

So it looks like a tight, three-way race for first in the central, a close battle for fourth and fifth, and the Pirates bringing up the rear.

FishStripes posts the odds of winning the World Series from December and February to see how bettors changed the rankings of teams. They really liked the offseason moves of the Tigers, pushing them to second on the list just behind the Yankees. But they loved the Giants moves, taking them from 50 to 1 to 10 to 1. I wonder, however, if this reflects the latest Bonds fiasco.

Bryan Smith lists his top 75 prospects. Good news for the Royals and Diamondbacks is each owns two in the top ten. What's poor is that Pittsburgh, a team that's been dreadful for a long time, only has two in the top 75!

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan follows up their Red Sox projections with a look at the Yankees. It looks like a dead heat in the AL East.

Ducksnorts finishes listing projections for the 2007 Padres hitters. Geoff averages four systems together. Here's how the lineups would score according to the Lineup Analysis tool.

Those particular eight players (and last year's pitching numbers) look to score between 4.5 and 5.0 runs a game. Since the team scored 4.5 runs per game last year, the Padres have a good chance of beating that mark with this group of hitters.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan uses both PECOTA and Bill James projections for 2007 to evaluate the Red Sox.

Using James' Pythagorean theorum and PECOTA's seemingly more realistic projections, 964 runs scored and 710 runs allowed would project roughly (I used the power of two instead of the power of 1.83) to a 105-57 record. Um, wow.

Indeed.

PECOTA projections (subscription only) are out and 6-4-2 sees what they mean for the Angels and Dodgers.

If you look at the lineup analysis of the Angels projected nine using these projections, you find a very small spread between the best and worst lineups. It a very balanced order, and should score 5.0 runs a game. So any pitcher on that team posting an ERA under 4.00 should do very well.

With the Cubs making a splash in the free agent market this winter, let's take a look at how the offense looks with the Marcel projections. Last year, the Cubs scored 716 runs, 4.4 per game. With the addition of Soriano and DeRosa, and the return of a healthy Derrek Lee, it looks like a decent Cubs lineup will score about 5.0 runs per game, or almost 100 runs more than 2006. That's about a 10 game improvement on the batting side.

It's an impressive accomplishment if these stats bear out, but it still only brings the Cubs up by about 10 wins. If they are going to be competitive, the pitching needs to reduce run scoring by at least the same amount. We can calculate runs allowed in a round about manner, since the Marcel projections just give us innings and ERA. If you take the top six starters and top six relievers from this depth chart, and then pro-rate the runs out to 1439 innings (same as last year), you get 782 runs allowed, 52 less than 2006. That's another five wins.

So on paper, it looks like the Cubs improved themselves by about 15 games this year. If you use the Pythagorean relationship (810 runs scored, 782 allowed), that may be as high as 18 games. Either total is impressive. With a little luck (a healthy Prior? Soriano repeats 2006? Murton has a breakout year?) the Cubs do even better. It was costly, but Hendry looks like he's put the Cubs close to contention in 2007.

John Beamer takes a close look at the Astros season and concludes that a full season of Roger Clemens wouldn't have made a difference.

Looking back at all this one of the more revealing insights was Garner's decision to demote Nieve to the pen. In all, Nieve's record as a starter was an unimpressive 2-3, but the fact remains that Buchholz was worse. It is amazing to think that a pitcher as good as Roger Clemens would have been lucky to win the Astros even one extra game. It just goes to show why pitcher won-loss records are rightly vilified in the analytical community. Who knows, but had the Rocket replaced another pitcher such as Buchholz or even his great friend, Andy Pettitte, then the outcome may have been different. Fortunately for the Cardinals that didn't happen.

The Hardball Times publishes the Marcel projections. It's a little unwieldy to find a player you like, but you can then play with the Lineup Analysis tool to see how your team stacks up for next year. Here's the Yankees. You'll notice, in looking at this lineup, why they can afford to play a glove man at first base. Their worst lineup is predicted to score 952 runs on the season.

SG at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog uses Chone projections and Diamond Mind Baseball to simulate 100 seasons using known 2007 rosters. It looks like the Cubs moves are going to pay off, as the simulation gives them the wild card. Also, fairly amazing to me is that the Giants run away with the NL West.

Of course, SG's point is this:

Hmm, interesting to see the Yankees projecting as the best team in baseball, with Randy Johnson.

The best team, but not the best pitching staff. In the AL, that goes to Minnesota, and in the NL, to St. Louis. Actually, with Marquis and Suppan gone, I wasn't St. Louis had a pitching staff.

Dayn Perry adds up his thoughts on Barry Bonds and comes to this conclusion:

In 2007, Barry Bonds will not break Hank Aaron's record.

That's a pretty strong statement. It's much better to put these things in terms of probability. Maybe Dayn believes there's a 95% chance Bonds won't break the record in 2007, but to go 100% against is a bit unreasonable.

Perry calls Bonds a player in decline, but he misses an important point about 2006; it took Bonds four months to get his stroke back. Look at his numbers by month. His batting average was up in August and September and he hit 12 of his 22 homers in that time. Perry's right that injuries could easily keep Barry from the record, but I was impressed with how much he played and how well he played last year, given his surgeries. I would not count him out so easily.

FishStripes posts the World Championship odds for all 30 major league teams. I notice the Nationals are 150:1. Bill James once wrote that no team in baseball is truly worse than 100:1 to win the World Series, making the Nationals a good long shot bet. Looking at the ranking, I'd say the Cubs are too high and the four teams listed 20:1 to 25:1 are too low.

At ArmChairGM, Marcvsxiv applies a type of asset analysis to predicting the playoffs.

The Baseball Crank posts his ESWL predictions for the NL West. He sees it as a very close division.

The Baseball Crank continues his preview of the division using Established Win Shares Levels. Today he looks at the NL East.

Craig Burley at The Hardball Times provides a handy-dandy chart of plus/minus indicators for the 30 major league teams. The system is based on one Bill James described in his abstracts in the 1980s. The AL Central is the most interesting division here. The White Sox are the only team with all indicators pointing down, while the rest of the division is mostly positive.

Here's my predicted order of finish for the NL East:

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Last year, this division was the toughest to call. All five teams had a chance of winning, and it was a close race for much of the season. This year, it looks like two races; the Mets, Phillies and Braves going for first, while the Marlins see if they can surprise and pass the Nationals.

The Nationals played very well in their new city for half a season. The team had some talent, they were playing in front of large audiences again and those combined to propel them into first place. What they lacked was stamina and depth. That hasn't changed.

They hurt themselves both offensively and defensively with the Soriano trade. At the moment, they possess no superstar; the players that might aspire to that role keep getting hurt. If Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro and Jose Guillen play a full season, things might be different, but does anyone really expect that to happen?

Zimmerman is their rookie third baseman, and Washington fans can get excited about his chase for Rookie of the year. Unfortunately, he'll be starting next to Royce Clayton. Guzman goes down with an injury, and they can't improve the position?

Once again, the pitching will look better than it is due to the ballpark. Hernandez and Patterson are fine at the front of the order, but with injuries they are not deep. And when the offense and pitching get tired halfway through the season, there's no one to take up the slack. Whoever ends up owning the team is going to need to solve this depth issue before the team can reach the next level.

No one expects Florida to compete this season. They are taking the idea that a player in his twenties can play as well as a player in his thirties to the extreme. I actually think the starting pitching is going to be pretty good. In assembling this staff, the Marlins looked for all the right things. It just may be that the offense can't even support a good staff.

One thing they will be is prepared. Joe Girardi's been the most important acquisition for the Marlins. From the reports I've read out of spring training, he's relishing the opportunity to mold this team. The players will know what to expect from the opposing pitchers when they go to the plate, and the pitchers will be coached in how to get the batters out. Then it's just a matter of execution. There's some talent here, they need time to develop.

The Mets, for the second year in a row went out and added real talent to the team. Wagner and Delgado are two pieces of the puzzle New York failed to address last year. With their young stars maturing, Reyes getting coached by Rickey Henderson, and two more impact players in place, the Mets look like the team to beat in the NL East.

They are the best balance team in the division. While their offense may not match Philadelphia, it's only a hair behind. And their combination of starters and closer is clearly the best in the division. My only concern is the age of Glavine and the injury history of Martinez and Trachsel.

The Phillies lack offense at third base, but they don't need it. With Ryan Howard looking like the second coming of Dick Allen (at least between the lines), the Phillies may boast five players with over 20 win shares this season. The Phillies are close to the Mets, and two young players might put them over the top. If Ryan Howard and Ryan Madson do emerge as stars, that should close the gap with the Mets. The pitching will also be helped by Rowand in centerfield, who seems to catch everything between the gaps.

I'm just not overly impressed with the Braves. How well they do this season depends on further development by Langerhans and Francoeur. Neither has an outstanding OBA, so the runs they produce are costly in terms of outs. But they still have Giles, Jones and Jones anchoring the offense, and Smoltz and Hudson holding down the rotation. It's been a real dumb move betting against Atlanta over the last 15 years, but I just don't see them being as strong as the Phillies and the Mets this season.

On top of that, the Braves pitching depth chart shows six red crosses. Are they already feeling the lack of Leo?

So I see it as a close race between the Mets and the Phillies, with the youngsters for Philadelphia making the difference one way or another. Atlanta doesn't have the talent to compete with these two, but somehow they always manage to find some. The Nationals were in disarray over the off season, and that might lead to a young Marlins team with a little bit of talent moving into fourth place. The odds of that, look pretty low, however.

Not to be boring, but you can guess how the AL East looks this year:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The biggest positive for the Devil Rays going into 2006 is their middle infield. Cantu and Lugo combined for 42 win shares in 2005. And even though Lugo is past his peak, the Rays have B.J. Upton waiting in the wings.

Cantu is the typical Rays prospect. His strength in putting up a good batting average is offset by his overall weakness in getting on base. The hope is as these players mature, they do a better job getting on, as Carl Crawford did last year. Rocco Baldelli gets a chance to make that improvement this year as he returns from an injury. The Rays centerfielders were so bad last year that anything from Rocco is bound to be better.

I don't understand why they continue to go with Travis Lee at first. They need to find a hulk with power who can take advantage of that ballpark. It's an easy way to improve the offense of the club. Still I like the fact it's a mostly young club that has room for improvement.

Kamir and McClung are two pitcher who have half the game figured out. They strike out a lot of hitters, but they walk way too many. They need to control that. When McClung came to the majors, his home runs per nine went way up. If he gets that under control, his walks won't hurt as much.

The bullpen is a mess. Shinji Mori's season ended before it got started with an injury. Chad Orvella looks to be the go to guy in the bullpen, and if he can come close to his minor league strikeout and walk numbers, he should be a good one.

The Rays are an up and coming team, but this won't be the year they make a big move. The most interesting thing to watch this year is how the new management team handles the team.

The Orioles played two season last year, one in which they were the best team in the east, another in which they were the worst. They let Sosa and Palmeiro go, but the team is not on a youth movement. They simply moved around players, brought in batters like Millar and Hernandez, and are going to give at bats to people like Jeff Conine. I really don't see the offense getting much better.

However, there's a lot of potential in the starting pitching, Leo Mazzone to develop it. In terms of 2005 win shares, the staff is comparable to the Yankees, but with a much higher upside. Look first pitch strikes on the low outside corner in April. If you see that, you know Leo got through to the staff. But without the pitching improving significantly, I really don't see the Orioles making a move this season.

The Blue Jays were very active in the off-season, spending a heap of money on two pitchers, A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. They also traded defense for offense, landing Troy Glaus for Orland Hudson. Yes, they're improved. Yes, they were unlucky last year, and that has a way of evening things out. I just don't see them winning the division.

The offense just isn't that good. The aggregate of the batters isn't that different than the Devil Rays. What they have is the best pitching in the division, but not that much better than the Red Sox. And the Red Sox are a mile ahead of them offensively. Toronto should be over .500, but they need to play New York and Boston very well and win the close games, unlike 2005. That's the only way they'll be in contention for the title.

The best news for Boston this spring is that Curt Schilling appears to be healthy. A full season of a good Schilling keeps Boston even with Toronto on the mound. And although they appeared to be trading offense for defense this winter, I'm not sure they succeeded. Yes, shortstop is going to stop many more balls than last year, but I'm not convinced that third, second and center are any better. They might even be worse.

The offense with Manny and Ortiz in the middle is very good, but still far behind the Yankees. I'm not sure that the pitching can make up the difference, so my pick of Boston for second.

The Yankees offense looks every bit as good as the 1998 team. Even if all the over 30 players fell off 10% from last year, no other division rival would be close. About the only things that's going to keep New York from leading the league in runs are season ending injuries to A-Rod and Sheffield.

The pitching is another matter. The front end is old, the back end is injured. However, they don't need to be great to win. This team reminds me of the 1992-93 Blue Jays. Take a couple of old pitchers, score 6 or 7 runs a game for them and Morris and Stewart kept you in the game. With the level of offense, they'll survive the pitching.

Heres' the predicted standings for the NL Central:

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Houston Astros
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

However, if Roger Clemens comes back and pitches for the Astros, that is likely to swing the division to Houston and put the Cardinals into second place.

The Pirates are a team with a lot of arrows pointing up. They have a legitimate MVP candidate in Jayson Bay. They have a potentially second great player in Oliver Perez. Perez needs to control his walks as he did in 2004. He looked very good in his last start vs. the Red Sox, so there's hope.

Now, can the Pirates surround those two with enough good players to compete? On offense, I'd say no. The level of talent among the Pirates position players isn't close to the Reds, Brewers, Astros or Cardinals. For example, they picked up Sean Casey over the winter. Casey makes them better, but he pales in comparison to Pujols, Derrek Lee, Dunn, Berkman and probably Fielder. Putting Casey at first in that division is like bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Where the Pirates can show a huge improvement, however, is in their starting rotation. Perez contributed nothing last year. Duke and Maholm were great in their short stays in the majors. I worry about Duke's low strikeout totals, but he's gotten by with them so far. Ian Snell is a major league unknown, but posted excellent minor league numbers. It's not that much of a stretch to believe this could turn into one of the best staffs in the division. If that happens, it's going to be a fun summer in Pittsburgh.

The good news for the Cincinnati Reds in 2005 is that they led the league in runs scored. The bad news is they also led the league in runs allowed. In fact, they gave up 69 more runs than they allowed. The optimistic view of those numbers is that the pitching doesn't need to be great to have a winning season. At that run scoring level, the staff can allow 4.6 runs per game and still come close to 90 wins. But that means cutting 150 runs on the defensive side of the ledger, and I don't see where that's coming from. Arroyo will help. In fact, Paul Wilson was so bad last year that Arroyo might add four wins to the Reds as the replacement.

Not all of those runs need to come from the pitching. The Reds defense was miserable in 2005. That only magnified the tendency of the staff to allow home runs. Unless Milton can find a way to keep the ball in the park, there's no a lot of room for improvement with that staff.

It's the Cubs turn to win the World Series, but they're starting off on the wrong foot. "Prior and Wood On DL" is not the headline you want to see a week before the season starts. The Cubs should have the best rotation in the division, but they can't keep two of their three star pitchers healthy. So once again, the burden of carrying the staff falls on the able shoulders of Carlos Zambrano. Unless Prior and Wood get healthy quickly, I don't see an improvement in the starters.

The Cubs did do a good job of blostering the bullpen over the winter, although many thought they spent too much. Given the amount of innings you can expect from the relievers this year, they may not be getting enough.

The one point where the Cubs look better is the outfield. They've revamped all three positions. And while Pierre and Jones are solid, Matt Murton might be something special. Lee, Ramirez and Murton look to give the Cubs an impressive murder's row in the middle of the order. The question is will anyone else be on base.

And don't expect Derrek Lee to post another season like 2005. It's an outlier in relation to his career. Don't be surprised to see Derrek return to his career averages, which will still be very good.

I just don't see many points of possible improvements for the Cubs in 2006. They're middle of the pack at best.

The Brewers, on the other hand, have lots of points where they can greatly improve. Lee, Clark and Jenkins formed the best outfield in the division in 2005, and with Fielder, Weeks and Hardy getting full playing time, the infield has the potential to be very good as well.

In the rotation, Sheets is starting the year on the DL, but it's expected to be a short trip. A healthy Sheets gives the Brewers a Cy Young candidate. A full year of Ohka and a maturing David Bush give the Brewers depth 1 through 5 in their starters. They have a ways to go to catch Houston and St. Louis, but you can imagine a scenario where most of the expected improvements brings them close to 90 wins. At that point, they're in the race.

The Houston starting eight is the only NL Central lineup with all eight players over 10 win shares in 2005. Taveras brings up the rear at 13. They're also the only staff bring back two pitchers with over 20 win shares last year. Their problem is the back of the rotation. After Oswalt and Pettitte, they Astros are going to need to score every run possible to get the game to Lidge. Unless, of course, Clemens returns.

The Cardinals aren't as balanced as the Astros, but their offense may be just as good. They concentrated a lot of their wins in Pujols, Eckstein and Edmonds last year. A healthy Scott Rolen should help. But, the Cardinals got good years from marginal players in 2005. I don't expect Eckstein to be that good again. I don't expect Miles, Bigbie and Encarnacion to match Grudzielanek, Sanders and Walker. I expect the Cardinals offense to come back to the pack a bit in 2006.

The rotation is fine. Sidney Ponson, won the fifth spot in the rotation, and if he falters there are other candidates to step in. But anchored by Carpenter, they're top four starters remain very solid.

The Astros and Cardinals are very closed. The Astros have the balanced offense, the Cardinals the balanced rotation. If Clemens pitches four months in Houston, that should throw the division the Houston. The Brewers I see as the wild card. They're the team with the most potential for improvement, and everything going right for them puts them in the division hunt. At the other end of the standings, the Pirates can make up ground with their pitching, but fourth looks like the best they can do. It may be as close a battle for fourth as it is for first in this division.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Here's my predicted finish for the AL Central:

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals

There's nothing terribly wrong with the Kansas City Royals offense. They added a couple of veterans in Grudzeilanek and Sanders, and even if they decline a bit they should improve the team. They compare favorably with everyone in the division except the Indians.

The problem with the Royals is their pitching staff. There's nothing there. Kansas City's best pitcher, Zack Greinke is off seeing a sports psycologist. Runelvys Hernandez, came into camp overweight, and the Royals placed him on the DL for being out of shape. Add to that one of the worst defenses in the majors, and it tough to see how the Royals are going to accumulate wins on the fielding side. It looks to me like another poor season in Western Missouri.

A number of factor on the Tigers point toward improvement. Guillen and Ordonez playing healthy for a year make them a better team. A full season of Placido Planco ups their win totals. Shelton and Bonderman should continue to mature and improve. Even the addition of Kenny Rogers should help the staff, provided he controls his temper. Detroit is another team that if everything that can go right does go right, they'll be in the division race. More likely, however, is that a few thing will go wrong, and they'll be fighting the Twins for third place.

In general, good team have two superstars surrounded by good talent. The Twins have their superstars in their battery of Santana and Mauer. It's not clear they have a supporting cast. The big hole in the lineup is first base. This should be a position that generates a ton of offense, but Morneau did not get the job done in 2005 after a promising 2004 season. He had 200 more at bats in 2005, but hit only 3 more home runs (22, up from 19). Over the winter the Twins added White and Castillo, who should help, and Batista, who probably won't. But if they don't get run creation from first base, it's going to be difficult to produce enough runs to win.

The pitching staff will likely keep their hallmark of not walking batters. That will keep them one of the most solid staffs in baseball. Still, the offense is weak enough to keep them out of contention.

The Indians are head and shoulder above the rest of the division in terms of offense. Martinez, Peralta, Sizemore and Hafner all posted win shares greater than 20 in 2005, and their still young players. Michaels replacing Crisp in left should make the offense better, and when Marte takes over for Boone, that will be another improvement. The Indians are going to score runs.

Even though they lost AL ERA leader Kevin Millwood, the staff remains solid. Sabathia, Lee and Byrd are a strong starting three, and an injury free Milliliter should win big with that offense behind him. It's not a great staff, but it's good enough given the offensive support they can expect.

The White Sox are the opposite of the Indians. Chicago boasts the best pitching staff by far in the division, but the offense is just okay. Buehrle and Garland had credible Cy Young seasons in 20005; Contreras and Garcia were not far behind. I'm not crazy about Vazquez filling in the role of fifth starter, but Orlando Hernandez didn't have a great season in that role until the playoffs.

The White Sox improved their offense with the trade for Thome, but at the same time they probably hurt their defense. It seemed Rowand caught everything hit to center. We'll have to wait to see how Anderson does as Aaron's replacement. If Thome is healthy and back to his old level of production, the White Sox are going to be solid 1-5 in the lineup instead of just 1-4. Again with that pitching staff, the offense doesn't need to be great, and Konerko and Thome should be capable of generating some runs.

So why do I pick Cleveland over Chicago? The two teams are very close on paper, Chicago even slightly ahead. But I'm going with regression to the mean here. The White Sox won a lot more games than expected in 2005, while the Indians lost a lot more than expected. Usually that's luck, not skill. We'll see if smart ball holds up for Guillen for another season. If the Sox can win a lot of close games again, they'll win the division again. My guess is that the relationship between runs, runs allowed and wins returns to normal for these two teams, and the Indians squeak by for the division.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

My predicted order of finish, but with a very low probability:

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are trying to grow a team rooted in Colorado, and I applaud them for the effort. They like to think they have a young team, but it's really a group of players without much experience. This is not a team of 22 year olds, this is a team of 26 and 27 year olds. Eight of the nine position players fall in that range in 2006.

That actually bodes well for the Rockies offense. Almost the entire team is together at their athletic peak. They've had major league experience. If they're going to do anything offensively, 2006 is the season for them. The problem is they're not a very good group of hitters to begin with. Last year the Rockies ranked fifth in the league in runs scored. That's not great when you consider they play at Coors. The Rockies need to run away with the league lead in runs if they are going to compete.

The one thing I've never been able to figure out about the Rockies pitching staff is why they don't perform well away from Coors. They actually gave up more home runs on the road than at home last year! Is it due to curve balls not moving in Colorado, so they learn not to use them at all?

With Colorado, I'm looking for an improved offense, but the same pitching and the same last place finish.

The Los Angeles Dodgers look good if they are healthy. Bill Mueller gives them more offense at third, and anyone who replaces Jason Phillips makes the team better behind the plate. Furcal's likely to produce more runs at short than Izturis. The team needs Drew, Nomar, Penny and Gagne all to be healthy, however. Brazoban was so bad last year, Gagne alone could add three or four wins to the Dodgers season, even in the limited duty of a closer.

The pitching is a concern, however. The great Dodger teams always were strong on the mound, and the 2005 version was not. Jae Seo, if the decrease in walks is real, could easily emerge as the staff ace. Otherwise, I don't see the staff pitching a lot better. If healthy, they'll make a good showing, but it looks to me like second place the for the Dodgers this season.

The Giants have the 300 pound gorilla in the division, Barry Bonds. The success of the team pretty much hangs on how much he plays. As we saw in spring training, Bonds can still hit the ball hard. What we also saw in spring training was that he doesn't appear to be able to play very often. We heard a lot of, "if this happened during the regular season he'd play," and now we get to see if that's true. Is Bonds going to be able to play two days in a row? How often? The more he plays, the better the chance of the team winning. But can they get 120 games out of their star slugger or just 80?

I was critical last year of the Giants move to fill the team with players in their 30s. They actually performed well. However, many of them are back, and every year they play the likelihood increases that they can no longer make a positive contribution.

The thing that puts them over the top, along with the return of Bonds, is Jason Schmidt. He appears to be healthy this spring. So a healthy Bonds, a healthy Schmidt and an emerging Noah Lowry go a long way to make up for the old men surrounding them. Given healthy players, the Giants are my pick to win the division.

I really like the way the Diamondbacks are building for the future. They've put together a good to great defensive infield with the acquisition of Hudson and the trade of Glaus. They've made room for Jackson at first, and Connor should be able to make up for most of Glaus' bat. I really like the fact that they are stocked with middle infielders. It easy to move them to other positions, and it's real easy to move them in trades if the Diamondbacks find themselves competing for the division title come the end of the July.

What I don't like is the DBacks pitching. Webb is a legitimate number one starter, but Orlando Hernandez had a poor 2005 despite his performance in the playoffs. I'll go with the larger sample size of the regular season. And Russ Ortiz managed to earn negative win shares! He was horrible.

I like the direction of the team, but the pitching keeps them down. I see a fourth place finish.

The Padres are the defending division champions, but they barely made it over the .500 mark in 2005. I really want to like Kevin Towers as a GM, but then he goes out and gets Vinny Castilla. He's not even a good third baseman anymore! On the plus side, the two former Mets should help. Piazza will add some offense. Just don't expect him to block pitches in the dirt. And PETCO is made for Cameron, as he'll be able to roam the wide, open spaces for fly balls. And with Klesko moving out of the outfield, the team should be better defensively.

On the pitching side, can Chris Young back up Jake Peavy. The rotation outside of Jake was poor, putting a lot of strain on the bullpen. Young had a bad spring, so it looks to me like the Padres bullpen will be getting a lot more workouts. I see this team maybe slightly better than 2005, but the only way they finish first again is if the injury bugs come back to haunt the Dodgers and Giants. Fortunately for Padres, that's not a remote possibility.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Here's my predicted order of finish:

1. Oakland Athletics
2. LAnaheim Angels
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

The first three teams are pretty evenly matched in terms of front line talent. Oakland's strong on the pitching side, Texas is strong on the batting side, and the Angels are more balanced.

The Mariners tried to improve their offense in 2005 with the addition of two sluggers, Beltre and Sexson. Richie did fine but Beltre didn't. Beltre got back in shape over the winter, losing 12 pounds. He looked good in the World Baseball Classic. Look for improvement there.

Kenji Jojima is the clubs latest Japanese import, and fit right into the team from the first day in camp. The Mariners catchers were so inept offensively in 2005 that a decent season from Kenji is going to improve the team at that position. My guess is, based on how Japanese stats appear to translate to MLB is that Jojima will post an OBA of around .340. That would be a huge boost to the Mariners' offense.

The biggest chance for improvement, however, lies with Felix Hernandez, the teenage pitching sensation. Unfortunately, he's already suffering from shin splints. Assuming that's minor, his strikeout, walk and home run rates should translate into an excellent ERA.

Unfortunately for this team, there's not a lot of depth. Even if Beltre, Jojima and Hernandez play up to the best expectations, don't expect much more than a .500 record from Seattle.

The Rangers have by far the best offense in the division. The replacement of Soriano with Wilkerson and Kinsler should help the team both offensively and defensively. The halt is Hank Blalock's development at age 24 is distressing, however. He had a huge falloff in OBA in 2005. A big reason is his strikeouts are up. That's something that sounds coachable. If not, we may be looking at the next Ben Grieve.

The pitching, as always, is suspect. Kevin Millwood takes over the Kenny Rogers role as "starter who can actually pitch." Millwood's not going to lead the league in ERA playing for the Rangers (there was a lot of luck involved in his title last year), but I also don't think he's going to get killed on the mound, either. If he posts an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50, he'll end up winning more games than he did with Cleveland in 2005.

After that, I'm not impressed with the staff. Eaton and Otsuka looked poor away from PETCO. There just isn't a lot there. Then again, if the Rangers are scoring 5.5 to 6.0 runs a game, the pitching just needs to be mediocre to win. So the rest of the staff should aspire to mediocrity!

The Oakland Athletics were buyers, rather than sellers in the market this off-season. As it turns out, there was a heavy discount on bad attitude and injuries over the winter, so Billy Beane grabbed Frank Thomas and Milton Bradely (actually, he payed a fair price for Bradley, but the attitude made the centerfielder available).

I like this team a lot. They are a young team, but at the same time they have experience. If you look at the lineup, you expect most of the players to be on their way up. That's always a good thing.

The addition of the veterans is similar to the move the Cleveland Indians made in the mid 1990's. They developed a good young team, and when they were ready to win, Hart brought in Murray, Hershiser and Dennis Martinez to plug the holes with solid veterans. Bringing in Thomas, Bradley and Loaiza does the same thing for the A's.

The pitching and hitting were going to be better simply due to the maturation of the players. Actually bringing in good veterans should help even more. My guess is Oakland wins the division.

The LAnaheim Angels made moves to get younger in 2006. Finley is gone, for all intents and purposes replaced by Casey Kotchman. Bengie Molina is gone from behind the plate, and Jeff Mathis takes over the receiving duties. Dallas McPherson may end up being the DH, although his bring took him down a notch on the team's depth chart.

This may be a year when the Angels take a step back to make themselves stronger long term. With Figgins and Guerrero, they have two great offensive players. Kotchman, Mathis and McPherson are still on the upward slopes of their careers. The offense will be good with the potential to be very good.

The pitching remains strong. Colon and Lackey anchor the staff, Jeff Weaver eats innings and Santana and Escobar have lots of potential. Couple that with the little Weaver on the horizon, and it's going to be difficult to score against the Angels. Again.

The difference, in my mind, between Oakland and LAnaheim is the offense. The Athletics are solid top to bottom, where the Angels have question marks. That should make the difference in the division this season. It's a good division, and I can see all four teams finishing at .500 or better. There's a good chance the AL Wild card comes from the West this year.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

The Baseball Crank uses win shares to take a look at the AL West today.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Dan McLaughlin at the Baseball Crank is using his Established Win Share Levels (EWSL) to see how the division races stack up. He's starting with the AL East.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Sabernomics makes some predictions for the Braves season, but without the whys. The big one is that just about everyone is going to hit better than Jeff Francouer. That's good news for the Braves if Francouer hits .300, but I don't think that's what JC means.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog is using PECOTA to analyze the team. Seth Billfer starts off with the pitchers.

Baseball Prospectus released it's PECOTA cards for 2006 (subscription required), and a couple of bloggers are already posting about the ratings. U.S.S. Mariner celebrates the uniqueness of Felix Hernandez. Was Watching doesn't like what Bernie Williams projection means for the Yankees.

An OPS of .720. That is at least 50 to 100 points below acceptable for a DH these days.

I would offer one caveat on Bernie. He's not going to be playing centerfield, so he should be a bit healthier than he was the last two seasons. Not that I think he's going to be great, devoting himself to hitting might bring a bit of the old Williams back.

SB at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog runs simulations for the 2006 season. The most likely team to make the playoffs is the Oakland Athletics. The only team that rates a 0% chance of even a wild card is the Kansas City Royals. As always, take these with a grain of salt.

Hat tip, Athletics Nation.

Alex Belth at Bronx Banter quotes a friend on the possibility of signing Johnny Damon.

While you're there, check out Alex's latest, as he responds to comments about the deal.

USS Mariner takes a shot at predicting what Kenji Jojima's stats will look like next season.

It seems Humbug Journal was ready for food injuries before they ever happened.

Ali-Reza Anghaie donated $50 or more and gets to dedicate this post:

To Lara, the most energetic Red Sox fan as measured against height and weight. Four foot eleven AND 1/2!

The AL East is almost as bad as the NL Central, but at least it's very difficult to pick the winner from the top two teams.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Toronto Blue Jays

The Yankees were very lucky last year during the regular season. They bascially should have been in a dead heat with the Red Sox. Both pitching staffs have age and injury question marks entering the season. Both have potent offenses. It's a tough call, but I'm giving the edge to the Red Sox because:

• I trust Theo to make the right moves mid-season to improve the team.
• The Red Sox core is a bit younger than the Yankee's core.

One big unknown is Jason Giambi. If he's healthy and can put up a .400 OBA and .500 slugging percentage, the Yankees have six top notch hitters in the lineup everyday. These teams are close enough for that to put NY over the top.

The Orioles will score lots of runs. Tejada, Sosa and Palmeiro is a good middle of the order. I suspect Sosa will rebound in a new environment. My big question for the Orioles is, "How many pitchers will wind up in jail, and are they better off with the staff behind bars?"

I'm assuming at some point Tampa Bay brings back the youngsters. I'd rather see a bad team with up and coming players than a bad team with has beens. At least Scott Kazmir is on the roster. Until they realize the importance of having players get on base, I don't expect this team to advance much.

The Blue Jays let Carlos Delgado go and replaced him with Shea Hillenbrand. They deserve to finish last. Money is being saved for the next two years, however. There will be no more excuses for J.P. Ricciardi starting next season.

This is my least favorite division this season. While it's possible that any team can win a championship in any given year, I don't see a lot of drama developing here unless you're interested in the race for the 3-6 slots.

Predicted order of finish:

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Houston Astros
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

I don't think the Cardinals are as good a team as they were in 2004. The infield defense up the middle leaves something to be desired. But they still have the biggest concentration of power and on-base in the National League in their 2-5 hitters Albert Pujols is just entering his peak years, so I expect the best is yet to come. Even if one or two of those four get hurt, they have enough offense to carry the division.

Any improvement in the Cubs will come from health, not transactions. The infield is great, the outfield is weak. I just don't put a lot of stock in Burnitz's Colorado numbers. A healthy Prior and Wood for a full season would greatly improve the Cubs chances of making the playoffs, but both start 2005 with question marks. I'm going to assume they don't stay healthy in picking the Cubs 2nd.

The Astros were a .500 team without Beltran, and they'll be one again. Bagwell and Biggio continue to age and fade, and Lance Berkman starts the year on the DL. I'm being generous picking them third, mostly based on having a good pitching staff. But Clemens didn't have a great spring, and Pettitte is still not 100%. It's possible a really bad April will bury the Astros to the point that they'll be lucky to climb back into third place.

The last three teams in the division are difficult to pick in any order. My pick of Milwaukee is based on having a new owner who might open up his pocketbook to improve the team as the season goes on.

The Reds are my toughest call. There are two forces on the Reds that are at odds with each other:

1. Despite their poor 2004 record, the Reds exceeded their Pythagorean project by nine games.
2. If Kearns, Griffey, Casey and Dunn are all healthy, they have a very potent lineup.

Lucky teams tend to regress the following year. Improvements in health should make the team better. These forces might just even out to leave the Reds exactly where they were last season.

The Pirates have two very bright stars on their team, Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. It's now Littlefield's job to try to surround these two with a solid cast of supporting players to bring the Pirates into the win column. He hasn't done that this season.

It looks to me like the Cardinals either romp again, or beat the Cubs in a race that's decided mid-September rather than mid-July.

This may be my favorite division this season. With the improvements in Seattle, four good teams will battle all season.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

I'm as uncomfortable picking an order here as I am with picking the first four in the NL East. What gets me to pick the Angels is their offensive depth. They have a number of players who can work at multiple positions, which gives Scioscia a great deal of flexibility. And they have Vlad. I'm not crazy about the pitching staff, except for K-Rod at the end. But they should score enough runs. One problem on the horizon is Steve Finley's age; he has to decline sometime.

I mentioned in the AL Central comment that I'd discuss trading age for youth here. In the Athletics Nation interview with Billy Beane, Blez asks this question:

Blez: How much did the insane contracts, forgive my editorializing, for starting pitchers like Benson and Wright affect your decision to go ahead and move Hudson and Mulder? In other words, were you just taking an opportunity to move players who happened to play in a position that is suddenly overvalued?

Let me look at this question from the opposite point of view. The average age of players is at an historically high level. Right now, youth is undervalued. So Beane traded for youth. Terry Ryan realizes the same thing. While everyone else is paying for "proven" players, Beane and Ryan are paying peanuts for youngsters who are probably just as good. And the teams keep winning.

The Rangers should be better on offense this year as Blalock, Young and Teixeira approach their primes. Chan-Ho Park may be the key to improving the pitching staff. Hershiser has been trying to get him to throw a 2-seam fast ball along with his 4-seamer. A turnaround by Park would go a long way toward putting Texas over the top.

The Mariners were so awful last year they have to be better this season. Sexson and Beltre hitting behind Ichiro should increase the team's offensive output. However, my guess is that once again fans will be going to the games to see what kind of records Ichiro can break this season.

I expect a three way race like 2004, but if Seattle's offense bounces back, this will be the best division in baseball.

I can see any of four teams winning this division, and I can see the Nationals finishing as high as third.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Florida Marlins
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. NY Mets
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Washington Nationals

You could randomize the first four teams and get as accurate a prediction. This is a close division.

This is a division with great heart of the order hitters. Abreu, Thome, Burrell on the Phillies; Beltran, Piazza, Floyd on the Mets; Cabrera, Lowell and Delgado on the Marlins. It's one of the reasons I moved the Braves down; they really didn't replace JD Drew. Mondesi and Jordan do nothing for me in the corners.

The Marlins pitching looks to me to be on par with the Braves, and their offense looks like it's on par with the Phillies. I believe that will lift them to the top of the division.

I can see a Joe Altobelli effect in Philadelphia. Joe replace the ultra-intense Earl Weaver and led the Orioles to a World Series in 1983. Charlie Manual is an easy going manager who's replacing the extremely intense Larry Bowa. The players may be relaxed enough to win the division.

The Mets should be greatly improved with Pedro and Beltran. The keys for them will be keeping Reyes, Floyd and Piazza healthy for the season. My suspicsion is that Pedro will respond well to Shea Stadium and will return to his Cy Young form, following in the footsteps of Roger Clemens.

I like the Nationals. They won't be the worst team in the majors. Frank Robinson knows what he's doing. They have three decent starters are are playing in a pitcher's park. It's too bad they won't be able to go after better players mid-years. With some luck, they won't finish last.

This should be a fun division. Since I'm not working and live in driving distance of three of the teams, maybe I'll do a northeast corridor tour of the NL East this summer.

The AL Central is slowly growing out of being an also ran division. The main things driving it are the good farm systems of the Twins and the Indians and the free agent signings of the Tigers.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

Terry Ryan is reminding more and more of Branch Rickey, or at least John Schuerholz. He's not afraid to let a veteran player go to replace him with someone young (more about this when I discuss the Athletics). He let a perfectly good shortstop in Guzman go, but is replacing him a 25-year-old with better offensive numbers. He did the same replacing Pierzynski with Mauer and Mientkiewicz with Morneau (and those moves made the roster a lot easier to spell). If he can get the same or better performance from a younger, cheaper player, he goes for it.

And, if he has a player worth the money, he signs him to a long term deal. Johan Santana moved into superstardom last season and was handsomely rewarded. The Twins are no doubt the team to beat.

The Indians want to contend this year. Unfortunately for them, it's been very difficult to make the moves for pitchers that would solidify the rotation. The offense matured just as the price for starting pitching sky rocketed. If they can get Millwood to return to his Atlanta form, they'll have four decent starters. It doesn't help that CC Sabathia will start the season on the DL.

The Tigers got a little better with the addition of Ordonez. But a lot hinges on Guillen's 2004 not being a fluke, and Jeremy Bonderman living up to expectations. The Tigers are moving in the right direction, and again I expect them to have more wins than the previous season.

I'm down on the White Sox. Thomas is hurt, Lee and Ordonez are gone and they're counting on two old Cubans in the rotation. The increase in speed will not make up for the lack of power in my mind. The South Side will be looking at its 88th year without a World Championship.

The Royals had the good sense to keep Calvin Pickering on the team and start him at DH over Harvey. On the surface, the pitching staff doesn't look bad. Greinke is projected to be a star. If Pickering is powering and Greinke is K'ing, the KC fans will have something to cheer about.

I'm going to start my previews with the NL West, bascially because you can discuss a lot of issues facing baseball with this division. Steroids, age and Moneyball GMs all are highlighted here.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Deigo Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

I would pick the Giants third even if Barry Bonds had come back from the knee surgery. The team is too old, and I suspect the Geezers by the Bay will be spending a lot of time on the DL this season. When Bonds comes back, who knows how good he'll be? Will balls be dropping all over left field? Will pitchers start throwing at his knees? Will they challenge him in the strike zone?

When I look at things that can go wrong vs. things that can go right, I just see a lot more things that can go wrong. I appreciate that Sabean is trying to get a World Championship before Bonds retires, and rebuilding is not the way to do that. But I'm not sure a bunch of late 30-somethings is the way to go, either.

And if there is going to be a distraction from the press, it's going to be here. Bonds will be facing scrutiny about steroids, his mistress and his assault on Babe Ruth's milestone. Roger Maris never had it so bad.

The Dodgers and Padres are really a toss-up. The offense have enough good players to score enough runs for low ERA staffs to win. Greene and Burroughs should still be improving; Drew should make up for the loss of Beltre.

The Diamondbacks are the dark horse of the division. They're banking on the G-men, Glaus, Green and Gonzalez to return to form and generate some offense. And with Halsey making the rotation, they're also hoping that Vazquez and Brad more than make up for the loss of Randy Johnson. Vazquez will give up home runs in that park; the question is, can he keep his walks low enough to keep men off base.

The Rockies at first appear to be going with a youth movement. If only. Mostly, their young players are career minor leaguers as opposed to up and coming stars. However, as Milwaukee has found out in recent years, a rookie in his mid-20's can have a pretty good season. If that happens, it will at least by fun in Colorado.

Brew Grit has issued predictions for the 2005 season, including the Brewers finishing third in the NL Central.

The Baseball Crank finishes up his EWSL projections for the NL today. I have to say I think his standings are interesting. It takes a lot of guts to put the Braves last in the NL East.

Wil Leitch has published his annual predictions for the baseball season at Black Table. Always a fun read.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Sabernomics has developed a new system to predict batting statistics. The interesting thing is that it's simply based on the players' previous season stats. For what he's tried so far, it does a pretty good job.

Unfortunately, Sabernomics hasn't posted the formulas, so the system is difficult to evaluate. Still it's more that worth a look. Since at the moment, I have time, if Sabernomics wants to send me the formula, I'll be happy to test it on a bigger set of data.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

The Baseball Crank uses Established Win Share Levels to look at the NL West race. He has the Giants coming out on top with Bonds, 2nd to the Padres with Bonds gone for 1/2 a season or more. I like San Diego and the Dodgers this season; I think Bonds' injury is only the tip of the iceberg for the geezers by the bay.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

All-Baseball.com has started their division by division look at the upcoming season. Their previews for the AL West and AL Central are up.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

The Baseball Crank serves up his predictions for the NL East using Established Win Shares. The results will suprise you.

While I don't doubt that Chipper Jones and Pedro Martinez could fall off as much as predicted, I'm betting that won't happen. We'll have to revisit this post in the fall.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

The Baseball Analysts invite Jon Weisman and John Perricone to discuss the NL West. I disagree with the consensus that the Giants will win the division. I believe the team is too old to be consistent throughout the year. I see it more as a race between the Dodgers and the Padres, with the Giants third.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Studes at The Hardball Times looks at what last year's line drives are telling us about the 2005 season. It looks like good news for Derek Lowe.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

John Sickels has the various projections for Justin Morneau up. Looks like he has the power the Twins can use. Given the quality of the Twins pitching staff, a full season of Morneau and Mauer on offense could make the Twins one of the elite teams in the league.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

John Sickels gathers the various projections for Nick Swisher in 2005 here. They are all projecting him to be a low average hitter with lots of walks, lots of strikeouts and good power.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Looks like this prediction:

I would not be surprised to see Schilling go into politics once his baseball career is over.

Came true faster than I thought.

Arnie Pollinger, commissioner of the SOMBILLA, offers this prediction in verse:

The Sox are better
This year Boston will not choke
Until World Series

Here's my look at the NL Central. As with the previous division looks, the chart below is based on last year's win shares for the core players (starting 8, 5-man rotation and closer) based on information in the CBSSportsline depth charts. See the predictions category for all the previews.

2003 Win Shares	Chicago	Cincinnati	Houston	Milwaukee	Pittsburgh	St. Louis
Starting 9	140	83	145	83	77	147
Starters and Closer	93	17	71	32	23	45
Total	233	100	216	115	100	192
Wins	78	33	72	38	33	64

It's the best and worst of divisions. Three very good teams, three very bad teams. Cincinnati, at least, in Griffey, Kearns and Dunn has a chance to but put up a lot more core wins than indicated here. But I don't see Milwukee, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati really competing for the title this year.

Houston and Chicago are the class of the division, with superior pitching to St. Louis. But don't count out the Cardinals starting 8. They have the best combined win shares in the division, and that's giving a 0 to Ray Lankford. And fans of the Red Birds would hope that Matt Morris can give the team more than 10 win shares this year.

The gap between the Cubs and Astros may also be not as large as it appears. Oswalt and Miller combined for 19 win shares last year; both are capable of more. Great seasons by these two pull the Astros even with the Cubs. The race may be moot, of course, as the 2nd place finisher will likely grab the wild card.

Here's my look at the AL Central. As with the previous division looks, the chart below is based on last year's win shares for the core players (starting 9, 5-man rotation and closer) based on information in the CBSSportsline depth charts. See the predictions category for all the previews.

2003 Win Shares	Chicago	Cleveland	Detroit	Kansas City	Minnesota
Starting 9	117	77	105	132	121
Starters and Closer	51	40	40	56	55
Total	168	117	145	188	176
Wins	56	39	48	63	59

The most encouraging sign in this chart is that the Detroit core is already above the Tigers 2003 win level. The most discouraging sign is the Indians low total, which is the lowest I've seen for a core so far. The Indians think they are developing and are going to contend. And with a young team, these numbers can improve tremendously. But they sure don't look very good right now.

KC is beating out the Twins here, but the big unknown is Joe Mauer. He's penciled in with a 0 right now. But if he's as good as people believe, a 20 win share season from him propels the Twins over the top. Looks like it will be a good dog fight between these two teams in the AL Central.

Here's my look at the NL East. As with the previous division looks, the chart below is based on last year's win shares for the core players (starting 8, 5-man rotation and closer) based on information in the CBSSportsline depth charts.

2003 Win Shares	Atlanta	Florida	Montreal	New York	Philadelphia
Starting 8	120	121	116	92	141
Starters and Closer	65	64	60	41	66
Total	185	185	176	133	207
Wins	62	62	59	44	69

It's interesting how close the pitching staffs of the Braves, Marlins, Expos and Phillies are. The real difference in the division is the Phillies offense and fielders. In looking at the numbers for the various players, I don't see anything that I'd change. This is a good number for their core.

On the other hand, the Braves have a couple of 0's in their lineup in LaRoche and Estrada. They'll get a lot more than 0 from first base this year at least. And their 1-4 hitters are the best in the division. It won't take much to bring their offense in-line with the Phillies.

Likewise with the Marlins. Cabrera put up 12 win shares as a rookie; I suspect that will go up. Choi only had 6 with his injury. Those two can add a total of 20 win shares, which again puts the Marlins right with the Phillies.

It's the Phillies division to win, but don't think it's going to be a cakewalk.

You can see all the division summaries under the predictions category. As with the previous two division looks, the chart below is based on last year's win shares for the core players (starting 9, 5-man rotation and closer) based on information in the CBSSportsline depth charts.

2003 Win Shares	Anaheim	Oakland	Seattle	Texas
Starting 9	133	85	149	102
Starters and Closer	60	77	75	30
Total	193	162	224	132
Wins	64	54	75	44

The Mariners surprised me. I have not heard a lot of good press about the Mariners' moves this winter, so to see their core so far ahead of the rest of the division came as a bit of a shock. Yes, the team is old, and this is probably an overestimation. But still, this is a very good Mariner team; very few holes.

The Angels have some upside, and may be closer to Seattle than this chart indicates. I can see Erstad, Guerrero and Glaus each adding 10 win shares to last year's totals, which would bring them right in line with Seattle. And a good year by Percival would probably put them over. It's all in the injuries.

Oakland's low total comes mainly from two 0's in its lineup at 2nd base and shortstop. How much will Crosby and German contribute? I would guess the A's core is probably closer to the mid 60's. There's always a lot of unknowns with this team, and it usually changes a great deal during the season. One big unknown is Rhodes, who put up only four win shares in a setup role last year. The Orioles didn't think he should close; if he adapts, four will be a low estimate of his contribution. If the Orioles are right, his contribution will be minnimal. Right now, the A's look a lot more like a third place than a first place team.

With the new job, I been very busy and some blogging has been put on the back burner. I did want to try to get in some more division previews, however, especially of the more interesting divisions. As I did for the AL East, here's a chart based on last year's win shares for the core players (starting 8, 5 man rotation and closer):

2003 Win Shares	Arizona	Colorado	Los Angeles	San Diego	San Francisco
Starting 8	120	116	111	122	142
Starters and Closer	52	20	66	40	54
Total	172	136	177	162	196
Wins	57	45	59	54	65

This is what I expected. There are no great teams in this division, and any one of the top four can win. I see Arizona as having a lot of upside. Randy Johnson and Roberto Alomar combined for 23 win shares last year. Any return close to their former greatness could easily double that. The Giants have the biggest down side, with a lineup pretty dependent on aging veterans. I would be very surprised if Grissom could post 22 win shares again.

The Dodgers, for their supposed lack of talent, are right in the hunt on this chart. It would not be difficult, with one in-season trade, for the Dodgers to win this division.

My sentimental favorite is San Diego. They have a new park, the homecoming king in David Wells, and the underrated start Brian Giles. And there win share number is based on Hoffman having only 1 in 2003. So in the closer role alone, there is lots of upside.

It should be a good four team race. I don't expect a lot of wins out of any team in particular. A total in the high 80's will probably win the division.

Update: Since Bradley has now joined the Dodgers, replacing Roberts, that takes the the Dodgers offense to 121, total to 187, and wins to 62. Just a little trade like that, and they are a lot closer to the Giants.

With games starting Tuesday morning in this division, I thought it would be prudent to put up a brief preview. To get a feel for how the teams are stacking up, I drew up this table based on last years win shares and CBSSportsline depth charts.

2003 Win Shares	Baltimore	Boston	New York	Tampa Bay	Toronto
Starting 9	148	163	193	111	141
Starters and Closer	32	82	85	34	70
Total	180	245	278	145	211
Wins	60	82	93	45	70

My aim here is to get a feel for how well the core of a team is built. The total win shares and wins (win shares/3) should of course be taken with a large grain of salt. But it's a good starting point to ask such questions as, "What do the non-core players have to do to get the team to a certain point?" It obvious that the DRays need a lot of contributions from the bench just to get to 60 wins. On the other hand, the a healthy Yankees team needs very little from the reserves to have a 100 win season.

You can also see where these totals may be underestimating wins. For example, Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling were both injured last year, and combined for 35 wins shares. If they are both healthy and combine for 50 win shares, that would move the Red Sox much closer to the Yankees. But also remember that the Yankees have a 0 for their fifth starter, whether you insert Osborne or Lieber there. So anything they actually contribute will be a bonus.

In the battle for third place, the Orioles have moved past the Blue Jays offensively, but the Blue Jays have added pitching to improve their defense. After Ponson, the rest of the Orioles rotation combined for 11 win shares last year. With the Orioles now using psychology to select their pitchers this may be an underestimation.

Still, it looks like the AL East will finish in the same order for the 7th straight year. Even with both the Yankees and Red Sox starting a 2 win share player at 2nd base this year, it will be difficult for the Blue Jays and Orioles to catch them. I hope I'm wrong about that, this division could really use a shakeup.

I would like to apologize to the ESPN Experts for doubting their wisdom when they overwhelmingly picked the Red Sox and Cubs to advance to the LCS.

Black Table, a literary journalism web site in New York, has an extensive preview of the playoffs by Will Leitch. I love their summary of the A's:

Oakland, despite the similarities in philosophies, couldn't be a more different team. The lineup is one of the worst in baseball, so bad that Beane was forced to trade for Cincinnati's Jose Guillen, who might be the definition of the non-sabermetric hitter (few walks, poor plate discipline). What has carried the A's has been the bullpen, led by Keith Foulke (yet another A's closer reclamation project) and Moneyball star Chad Bradford, and a seemingly endless supply of starting pitching. For most of the year, Mark Mulder led the young, cheap staff, but when he went down, rookie Rich Harden stepped in. He hit the rookie wall, so up stepped Ted Lilly, who was once traded for Jeff Weaver. The trio of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Lilly might not be as impressive as last year's Mulder/Zito/Hudson triumvirate … but it's close.

That the A's have been so successful for so long on such a short budget is astounding; heck, someone should write a book about it. But, fact is, this is probably the weakest A's team to make the playoffs since Beane began his run. Zito hasn't had one of best seasons, Lilly has been hot but won't be confused with Mulder, and the lineup requires Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez -- two of the most talented yet maddeningly inconsistent hitters in the game -- to carry them. What Beane has done with the A's is incredible, but a World Series has eluded him, much to his frustration, considering the crapshoot nature of the postseason. It would be ironic, one supposes, if Beane's worst team was the one that actually snuck in the World Series … but when you're facing a lineup like the Red Sox's, irony and two bucks will get you uptown.

There is a misconception here about Oakland and Beane's methods. I don't think Beane cares where the runs come from, as long as there is a large enough difference between the A's runs scored and runs allowed. The offense, despite a lower batting average, OBA and Slugging, only scored 32 fewer runs than last year. Couple that with the pitching and defense allowing 11 fewer runs, and the difference between this team and the 2002 team is 21 runs, or two wins. Last year the team was very lucky and won six more games than they should have. This year, the team won 1 more game than it should have. Yes, it may be the worse team in this run, but it's not a bad team, and it's not that different from last year's team.

Beane doesn't say, "We have to have a .340 OBA." He says, "we have to outscore our opponents by 130 runs to make the playoffs." If he can save money by getting a worse hitter and a better pitcher to do that, he will.

As for the Cubs, no punches are pulled:

The Cubs are everyone's cause celebre these days, but this is not a plucky Expos team, or overachieving Oakland squad. This is a team full of malcontents playing for a greedy corporation that bleeds its long-suffering fans dry in the name of the bottom line, selling nostalgia to drunken overgrown frat boys who usually don't notice there's a game going on until the seventh inning stretch. You'd almost feel bad for the players if they weren't all jerks too.

It's a long read but a great one. Enjoy.

Daniel Shamah sends this link to the ESPN staff predictions on the post-season baseball tourament. Apart from the typo in Rick Sutcliffe predictions, it's time to see what the experts think.

On the most important question of who will win the World Series, we get the following votes:

Team	Votes	Odds of Winning
Giants	5	27.7%
Red Sox	4	22.2%
Yankees	4	22.2%
Braves	3	16.7%
Twins	2	11.1%

None of the experts gives the A's, Marlins or Cubs a chance to win the World Series.

Another interesting item from this list is the near unanimous consensus that the Red Sox would beat Oakland in the ALDS. Only Scott Ridge picked the A's. The A's did win the season series against the Red Sox 4-3 this year. The Red Sox are a poor road team, and they will be playing up to three games at Oakland. I'm surprised this isn't closer to 50-50.

The experts pick the Cubs to beat the Braves 12-4 in the NLDS, but not one picks the Cubs to win the World Series. They can beat the best team in the NL, but they can't take the series? As I pointed out earlier, the Braves are very good at beating good pitchers. My gut here is that there's a lot of wishful thinking going on regarding the Cubs and the Red Sox.

Update: Michael Davidson writes:

You write that "None of the experts gives the A's, Marlins or Cubs a change to win the World Series". I'm sure you know this, but that's just not true. None of the experts thinks that those teams will win, but I'm sure they'd all give a probability of greater than zero if pressed. It looks like ESPN's survery isn't that nuanced.

Yes, that's true, and I knew that when I wrote it. However, I'm looking at the odds of these teams winning based on the predicitions of the experts. And based on their predictions, the probability of those teams winning is 0. Odds, after all, are no more than the consensus opinion of the betting public. Here, we have a very small public, so you have to expect the odds to be skewed a bit.

Daniel Drezner thinks the Red Sox will win the World Series.

The key to the Red Sox success this year is that they have refused to allow heartbreaking losses to affect their overall equilibrium. It would obviously be better if they had no such losses. The key, however, is that such reversals don't cause the team to go into a tailspin.

This is why the Red Sox will win the whole shebang -- playoff baseball is all about heartbreakingly close games. The team that wins the playoff series is the one that can live with temporary disappointment and then come back the next day and play better baseball.

The obvious example is the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite two dramarically blown saves by Byung-Hyung Kim in Yankee Stadium, a manager that had no touch in terms of pitching changes, and a powerful symbolism that suggested the Yankees should win in the wake of 9/11, Arizona gutted out the series and won in it in seven games.

Most teams that enter the postseason are used to success and unaccustomed to staggering reverses. The 2003 Red Sox, on the other hand, are veterans of this sort of emotional workout.

Of course, they also have Kim as their closer.

We'll see. I thought the Red Sox would win the AL East, and that's not going to happen. They have a great offense. If they get to the playoffs and match up with the right pitching staffs, they could easily win it all. But they still have to make it to the playoffs first.

Mike Carminati continues his role as ESPN.com's harshest critic, this time taking on Jayson Stark's column about the chances of Barry Bonds breaking Aaron's career HR record.

One thing that I find fascinating about the column is the sudden acceptance of seasonal age:

Exactly one man in the history of the sport ever hit 40 home runs at age 39. (And, if we use the universally accepted July 1 age cutoff date, next season would count as Bonds' 39-year-old season, even though he'll play almost 40 percent of it at age 40.) That's Aaron, who did it in 1973.

I don't remember Elias ever accepting this. One of their percieved strengths is their game logs, which allow them to calculate stats by exact age. The problem, of course, is what do you want to do when you're looking for the best season by a 40 year old? You have to decide what a 40 year old is. And seasonal age does that well. It's interesting that Stark seems to imply that if you spend 40% of a season at age 40, you're 40, even though you spent 60% of the season at age 39!

Stark also goes down the path of most HR by old ballplayers, to show how hard it will be for Bonds to break the record:

Then would come Bonds' 40-year-old season. Just one 40-year-old man in history has ever hit 30 homers in a season. That's Darrell Evans, who hit 34 in 1987 for a Tigers team that played in the perfect left-handed hitter's park, Tiger Stadium. We remind you that Bonds plays in the hardest ballpark in baseball for a left-handed hitter (besides himself, that is) to hit a home run.

OK, let's keep going. Most home runs by a 41-year-old: 29, by Ted Williams in 1961. Most by a 42-year-old: 18, by Carlton Fisk, in 1990. Most by a 43-year-old: 18, also by Fisk, in 1991. And after that, it isn't even worth counting anymore.

But he might want to go backward as well:

• At age 38 (Bonds current age), the HR record is 40 by Darrell Evans. Bonds has 37, which would be third if he didn't hit a HR the rest of the year. It's a good bet he'll have the 38-year-old record by the end of the season.


• At age 37, the record is held by Henry Aaron, with 47. Bonds is 2nd with 46.


• At age 36, the record is the all-time record 73 hit by Barry Bonds.


• At age 35, the record is 65, by Mark McGwire. Bonds hit 49 at age 35, tieing for 2nd place at that age with Babe Ruth.

Bonds is a great aged HR hitter. Now let's be real conservative and say that Bonds hits five more HR the rest of the year. That would give him 655, exactly 100 away from Aaron. Let's also say that he keeps playing, and he misses the age record by 2 each year. That would give him 38, 32 and 27 over the next three seasons, leaving him 3 short of the record.

It really comes down to, will Bonds play, or, will he stay healthy enough to play. I don't remember people thinking Aaron would keep hitting 40 HR a year (well, maybe Selig did when he brought him back to Milwaukee), but I do remember people thinking McGwire was going to break Aaron's record. And McGwire was gone from the scene in a blink of an eye. Bonds has not preserved his body, he's pushed his body to the limit. This has allowed him to become the best hitter ever, but I wonder how long it will last. He's had great training, but he still has nagging injuries and can't play everyday. My guess is that we won't see it coming; Bonds won't slowly fade like Aaron and Ruth did. We'll see lace a ball into the corner for a sure double, scream with excitement as he rounds first, turn our head to see if the outfielder has the ball, then look back to see Barry limping into 2nd base. And like that, the quest will be over. The bill for his glory will have come due.

Chris Lawrence of Signifying Nothing comments on this Royals winning streak post and finds it an interesting applied probability problem. He also does the calculation of the nine game winning streak probability, and finds that it's now down to 4.65%. That's significant at the .05 level. So it's starting to look like the Royals are better than a .4074 team.

Significance is in the eye of the beholder, however. Some statisticians prefer a .01 level (1% chance) before they'll call something significant. My favorite statistican, Larry Gillick, doesn't like to draw a line and claim something is significant or not. He just looks at the p-value and treats it as another piece of information in making a decision. The Royals are very likely to win more than 66 games. But how many more, we don't know yet.

Jon Miller is getting on the Pirates are going to get better band wagon. :-)

ESPN has put all their expert predictions on one page. There are 25 experts, and here's the consensus:

• Yankees win AL East (21 votes)


• Phillies win NL East (17 votes)


• Twins (13 votes) or White Sox (12 votes) win AL Central.


• Four teams got votes in the NL Central, with the Astros getting 11, but the Cards got 7 and the Cubs 6.


• The Athletics are the most confident pick, with 22 votes to win the AL West.


• The DBacks are the NL West favorite with 19 votes.


• The Red Sox with 9 votes and the Angels with 7 are the favorites to win the AL Wild Card.


• No clear favorite for the NL wild card, but the Giants get 6 votes and the Braves 5.

The clear favorite to win the World Series is the A's, with 11 votes. No other team got more than 3.

Less than four hours to the first game. Enjoy!

This has been the most predictable division over the last five seasons. Each year has seen the same finish; Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays. I think that will change this year.

• Orioles: Yuck. Here's the career OBA and Slugging Percentage for the project Orioles lineup on CBS Sportsline:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  Slot	OBA	Slugging
  1	.320	.365
  2	.329	.376
  3	.331	.416
  4	.350	.453
  5	.307	.481
  6	.308	.472
  7	.343	.449
  8	.282	.358
  9	.294	.386

  
  This is just pathetic. B.J. Surhoff is batting third! The Orioles have financial resources, yet they have not been able to lure good free agents nor build up the farm system.

  One pitcher to watch is B.J. Ryan. He's a lefty who reminds me of Ted Lilly a couple of years ago. He has good strikeout numbers, but gives up too many walks and HR. If he can get those under control, I think he would be an effective closer. If nothing else, the Orioles have cornered the market on B.J.'s. :-)
  



• Red Sox: The Red Sox number nine hitter is projected to be Jason Varitek. He has a career .335 OBA and a .427 career slugging percentage. That's better than most of the players on the Orioles. Number 8 will be Trot Nixon, who's at .359 and .476 for his career. This is a good offense. A very, very good offense. 1998 Yankees good. The Red Sox were third in the league in runs scored last year, and they have improved their weakest two spots, 1st and 2nd base. I would not be surprised if Boston scores over 900 runs this year. If that happens, the pitching staff would need about a 4.04 ERA for a .600 winning percentage. (You can do the math, but it falls out from the Pythagorean Method.) So the pitchers can have their ERA go up over a quarter of a run from last year, and still win nearly 100 games.

  Pedro can easily be 20 games over .500 with this team. If so, the rest of the staff only needs to be 18 games over to reach 100 wins. And the rest of the starters and bullpen look good enough to do that.

  As for closer by committee, if the Sox offense is as good as I think it is, there aren't going to be many close games. That puts a lot less pressure on the relief staff. The Sox and the Yankees were much closer than last year's standings indicate. Bad luck caused the gap. Boston has improved, and I expect that gap between the teams to disappear entirely.
  



• New York Yankees: The Yankees, once again, are the Yankees. They are an offensive powerhouse. Matsui fills the hole left by the retirement of Paul O'Neill. Nick Johnson, the Yankees #9 hitter, despite hand problems, had a good spring. Williams should move to the top of the lineup and Soriano to cleanup, but they are just going to score a lot of runs.

  And they will need them. The Yankees staff was 2nd in the AL last year in strikeouts. With the Yankees poor defense, it's important for the staff to do that again. As shown in last year's ALDS, the way to beat the Yankees is to put the ball in play up the middle. Soriano and Jeter have limited range, and Williams often turns balls into an adventure. This is the Yankees achilles heel. If you try to out power them, the Yankees pitchers will strike you out. But if you just meet the ball and put it in play, you'll nip at them and score runs. The Yankees did nothing to address their defensive failings, and that is likely to cost them.
  



• Tamp Bay Devil Rays: Two of the most disappointing hitters of the last five years are Travis Lee and Ben Grieve. Each came to the majors with great expectations, and neither has come close to living up to those. Both however, have had good springs. Maybe Lou Piniella is the task master they need. If this improvement continues, coupled with the Rays bringing along some young players, their offense will be better than Baltimore's.

  The pitching, on the other hand, is a complete unknown, and probably not very good. If the offensive improvement is there, however, I expect the DRays to have their best season ever, and maybe even finish out of the celler.
  



• Toronto Blue Jays: The Toronto bullpen is stocked with pitchers who can get a strikeout when needed; Escobar, Creek and Politte. I expect the Blue Jays to use the pen extensively, as it's their biggest strength.

  The offense isn't bad. They have two excellent players in Stewart and Delgado. But it's not a great offense either. The Blue Jays are like Goldilocks favorite porridge, not too hot or cold. And once again, in third place.
  

So, for the moment of truth. I think the Red Sox are going to win the division. They have improved more than the Yankees have, and they were very close to them last year. The Yankees have not addressed their most glaring weakness on defense, and their pitchers are old. I would not be surprised to see lots of injuries in NY this year, and it's already started with Rivera and Karsay. It's the Red Sox year in the east. Toronto will once again finish third, but I giving the nod to the Devil Rays for fourth over the hapless offense of the Orioles.

It's an interesting division. Three clearly good teams. And some really great individual players. It will be worth staying up late to catch the west coast games in the east again.

• Arizona Diamondbacks: Every year I look at the Arizona offense and say to myself, "Self, this offense isn't that good," and every year I'm wrong. I'm going to have to give Brenly some credit here. He's gets a lot out of this team. That said, I think the only really good offensive players on this team are Spivey, Gonzalez and sometimes Finley.

  But of course, with Johnson and Schilling, how many runs do they need to score? Kim looks like he'll be another good starter, so this team will win a lot of games again.
  



• Colorado Rockies: The Colorado Rockies are likely to start seven position players who were not with the team last spring. They bascially kept the two best, Helton and Walker, and replaced everyone else. I think they did a decent job, too. This may end up being a team that can actually score on the road.

  A big problem, however, remains the pitching. The Rockies don't have a staff that can strike out batters. And having the ball put in play against you in Coors is deadly. I wonder if the right way to build a staff here is to get arms that can throw 95 m.p.h or better, and just try to blow pitches by batters all day. Because of this, I think the Rockies will battle for 4th place.
  



• Los Angeles Dodgers: At lot of addition by subtraction here as they changed the right-side of the infield. They are solid 1 to 5 in the lineup, and Kevin Brown is back to anchor the rotation. I don't agree with Dreifort as a starter, however. He's never shown the stamina to go more than 5 innings. I think he's a great two inning setup man, because he can really let loose and not worry about getting worn out. Still, a good team, better than last year, and they should compete for the division title.
  


• San Diego Padres: Two words, Nevin and Hoffman. Actually, I'm not one who thinks closers are all that important. You need to have a lead late for them to be useful. Nevin is a big loss. How big a loss depends on which Rondell White shows up. (By the way, if your team is being crippled by injuries, isn't Rondell White the last player you should add?) On the plus side, they do have an (a?) Xavier. I see them with the Rockies at the bottom of the division.
  


• San Francisco Giants: I am not an Alou fan. People told me for a long time what a good manager he was, and I was willing to accept that. But he kept losing with the Expos, and with some good young players. They were always close to competing, close to a wild card, but never there. After a while, after looking at what was stressed in his players (BA over on base, e.g.), I started to lose faith. And now that he's inserting Jose Cruz into the 2nd spot in the lineup, I'm sure I'm right.

  Alou is a leader, and his players love him (as far as I can tell), which is very important. But I think his overall view of what's important in offense is from a different era, and I'm afraid that's going to hurt the Giants.

  This is still a very good team. In a lot of ways, I like the batting order this year much better than last year (seeing Santiago lower is good; he's not a fifth hitter). Good starters, good bullpen. They'll contend. I have some doubts as to whether they'll win.
  

So the way I see it right now, the Dodgers win the division, with Arizona second and the Giants third. I'll give 4th place to the Padres and fifith to the Rockies, although it could easily go either way. The team that finishes 2nd in this division will likely win the wild card as well.

Not as bad as the NL Central, but they only have 5 teams. But also, I think four of the five teams have a clue.

• Chicago White Sox: As Frank Thomas goes, so go the Sox. He's had a very good spring, and if that translates into a Frank Thomas season, the Sox will have the best offense in the division 1 to 6. Since no team has a great 1-9 offense, that should have them scoring the most runs.

  I worry about the starting pitching a bit. Colon's season was very good, despite a big decline in his strikeouts. He joins a rotation with few K's, and the White Sox have a traditionally bad defense.

  I don't think Koch adds or substracts anything from the bullpen. So the big ifs are Thomas coming back and Colon repeating. If that happens, they will compete for the division title.
  



• Cleveland Indians: These are not your older brother's Indians, although they may be your father's Indians. :-) I've heard nothing but good about Eric Wedge, but the lineup they are projecting on CBS Sportsline does not impress me. Why does he think Bradley can lead off? If Burks does not hold up, the Indians will have little power. Maybe Wedge is waiting for his former charges from Buffalo to make their way to the majors.

  As for the pitching staff, Jason Bere is the 2nd starter, and he hasn't had a good year since 1994. I see them finishing 4th.
  



• Detroit Tigers: As I was reading a preview of the Tigers, it struck me that the coaching staff could easily beat this team. (Trammell, Gibson, Parrish, etc.) Who are these guys?
  Rob Neyer has a good column on going with such a young pitching staff.
  Dombroski has always struck me as an intelligent GM. I haven't seen the brilliance yet with this team. But if I read him correctly, he will be using these losing seasons to draft well. It may take a few years, but I bet better teams are not that far away. But for this year, last place.
  


• Kansas City Royals: The offense 1-5 isn't bad. Four consistent players and the great Mike Sweeney. The Royals are going to score some runs. But like the Tigers, they have a young, no-name pitching staff. I actually think they will finish ahead of the Indians, but they won't do it with a great record.
  


• Minnesota Twins: It's pretty much the same team as last year. Rogers replaces the injured Eric Milton in the rotation, and I suspect he'll do fine given his past performance in the park. A great defense helps the pitching keep the hits down. They strike me as having the deepest team in the division, and their good minor league system likely has talent in reserve. I like them to win, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they fell off five games.
  

So I see it as the Twins vs. the White Sox. A good year from Frank Thomas and it's a close race. Otherwise, the Twins win easily.

Sean McAdam offers a different view of the NL Central on ESPN.com. He sees it as a tight four team race for the division. I think the thightness of of the race will be at the bottom.

This is my least favorite division. It's like the AL West of the 1980's, one or two good teams and a bunch of others that don't have a clue.

• Chicago Cubs: CBS Sportsline projects Grudzielanek leading off and Gonzalez batting 2nd. My question: who is Sosa supposed to drive in? Grudz had a .301 OBA last year and Sanchez was .306. That trade with the Dodgers will prove costly for the Cubs both in money and in talent. Karros looks like a very expensive part-time player. Pitching looks fine, should be near the top of the league in K's. Look for the Cubs to lose a lot of low scoring games. I think the Cubs will be lucky to finish third.
  


• Cincinnati Reds: The offense will be very good if Larkin and Boone bring their OBA's back to normal after off years, and Griffey's power can similarly rebound. Larkin worries me the most, since his falloff is likely age related. But this offense could be great 1-6.

  The starting pitching is mediocre, and they don't strike out a lot of batters. The defense up the middle is either old (Larkin), out of position (Boone) or never that good (Griffey). That could be a disaster. Expect to see the bullpen early and often.
  With luck the Reds will compete in the division. I think third place is a safe bet for them.
  



• Houston Astros: Biggio. like Larkin, needs to rebound from an off year to be effective at the top of the order. But I don't understand the project of Lugo at the top. Blum has a much better OBA. With the big guns in the middle of the order, why not get as many people on base in front of Bagwell, Berkman and Kent?
  The Astros are excellent 1-2 in both the starting rotation and the bullpen, but depth may be a problem. This team has a a lot of great players, but a lack of depth may keep them from the top spot in the division.
  


• Milwaukee Brewers: I was going to bash the Brewers for picking up Royce Clayton. But you know, the offense isn't bad 1-5. However, they are horrible 6-8. Still concentrating the best players together should generate some runs. Of course, they have no starters. None at all. And when I say none, I mean one, Ben Sheets, who isn't going to win the Cy Young award anytime soon. They are going to be the opposite of the Cubs, losing a lot of high scoring games.
  


• Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates did a good job of filling in some holes with veterans. Like the Cubs, they have one great players (Giles) but not much offense around him. They'll hit better than last year. Neither the pen nor starters are great. The team will win more games, but not a lot more.
  


• St. Louis Cardinals: They are the class of the division. However, Drew looks like he won't be a regular the first part of the season after knee surgery. CBS SportsLine projects Renteria to bat third, which I just don't understand. Pujols or Rolen would each be a better choice. Renteria just doesn't have the power to bat third. I'm assuming that the projected lineup is wrong (Renteria batted 2nd today), but this injury could give the Astros an opeing to win the division.
  

A lot of mediocrity here. Cardinals with pitching, defense and a good offense should win easily. Astros will make a run, with how well they do depending on the rebounds of Biggio and Hildalgo. Cincy takes third based on offense and bullpen, and the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers may generate some excitement but not too many wins. A coin toss for 4th, 5th and 6th.

• Anaheim Angels: The Angels stood pat over the winter, never a good sign. Almost any team has weaknesses that need to be addressed. One of the reasons the Braves have stayed so good so long is that they address the little weaknesses every year, moving one or two players, so they always have a good team.

  In this case, however, I don't think standing pat was such a bad idea. This hunch is based on two players; Troy Glaus and Darren Erstad. Each had an off year last year, and the Angels were still one of the top teams in terms of run differential. The Angels hit very well with men on base last year, and that may continue if the team continues to do an excellent job of putting the ball in play to take advantage of defensive holes. Pitching wise, K-Rod and Percival could be the Rivera-Wetteland of 2003.
  



• Oakland Athletics: If you like pitching, this is your team. With Ted Lilly having a good spring, the A's have the best rotation 1 to 4 in the league, if not the majors. And with all their players having good to great OBA's they'll score more than enough runs to win. Billy Beane continues to move players around to show the rest of baseball how to win on a budget. They may be boring again, but I'd rather have a boring winner than an exciting loser.
  


• Seattle Mariners: I was going to say something bad about Mike Cameron, but when I took a close look at his stats, they really weren't much different than his career. In other words, Mike's 2002 is pretty much what you should expect from him. Randy Winn give the Mariners their best everyday leftfielder in a long time, and 1 to 5 the lineup is very good, although it's starting to age. A rebound by Jeff Cirillo would be key to the Mariners sucess this year.
  


• Texas Rangers: They are going to score and give up a lot of runs. Actually, there's going to be a huge falloff in offense at catcher. Palmeiro may finally get old. Oh well, they are going to get blown out a lot.

  The only time Hart impressed me with his pitching decisions is when he picked up Hershiser and Martinez as the final pieces that led to the AL pennant in 1995. Otherwise, he seems to be a one-dimensional GM; all offense, no defense. That's going to make it another ugly year in Texas.
  

I expect the division to be a toss-up between the A's and the Angels. The Mariners will be in the hunt, but they are going to need a little luck, and Martinez and Moyer in good health to win the division. Texas remains an example of how not to build a winning team.

Update: Fixed a typo.

Alan Robinson of the AP compares the consistently good play of Brian Giles to the consistently poor play of the Pirates.

Brian Giles' consistency is almost scary.

His home run totals since joining the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1999 are 39, 35, 37, 38. He has 37 doubles each of the last three seasons. His batting average was .315 in 1999 and 2000, .309 in 2001, .298 last season.

"My numbers have been fairly consistent over the last four years," Giles said.

No kidding.

What troubles Giles is the Pirates have been just as predictable - predictably bad, with 83 losses in 1999, followed by 93, 100 and 89 the last three seasons.

Giles does see a silver lining, however.

But when he looks around the Pirates' clubhouse, he sees veteran players with winning resumes and not-old pitchers who have won games in the majors, rather than those who merely hope to do so. He sees a bullpen that might be one of the NL's best, a bench that many contenders wouldn't mind having.

He also likes what he doesn't see: prospects rushed to the majors prematurely, visibly nervous by their new surroundings and doomed to fail in them.

"Every season here has been a rebuilding process," Giles said. "Nothing against the younger players in our organization, but it's awfully hard to perform at this level and have success at the same time you're having to learn the game."

And it looks like Jason Kendall agrees with my assessment of the team. :-)

"People are still going to say the people we brought in are on the downside of their career, but this team has been starving for those kind of players," Giles said. "It's a different atmosphere and, for the first time, you go in feeling like you have a chance of winning. That's something we haven't had for the last three or four years."

It's not just the veterans, either. Giles sees improvement in the Pirates' young talent, products of a farm system in which every Pittsburgh minor league team enjoyed a winning season last year.

"We're much better than last year - that team probably wasn't half as good as this team, and we were only 7 1/2 or 8 games out at the All-Star break," he said. "If we can keep guys healthy and everybody goes out and has their normal years ..."

Giles didn't finish the thought, so teammate Jason Kendall did it for him.

"It's going to be a fun year," Kendall said.

Going into the final week of spring training, I'm going to try to take a look at each division to see who's strong and who's not. I don't like making predictions, so this is going to be more how I feel about each team.

• Braves: I didn't think the Braves had a great offense last year, and it doesn't look like they've done much to improve it this year. Despite his great rookie year, Furcal has proven to be a poor leadoff man. The Braves will get a lot out of the Jones and Sheffield again, but Castilla is a black hole at third. So it's going to come down to the pitching again.

  Hampton is the question mark. Right now, I'm not very confident. So far this spring he has walked 8 and struck out 4 in 14 innings. The bullpen may have to work a lot more than last year. They were good at holding leads, but the Braves may not be able to generate enough offense for comebacks. My feeling is that this is the weakest Braves team since 1990. I see them finishing well in this weak division, but I don't think they are a lock for the playoffs.

• Marlins: I think the Marlins offense is okay. They have two decent table setters in Castillo and Pierre, and the 3-5 hitters, while not murders row, should be able to drive them in. The rotation and bullpen both lack great power pitchers, Burnett looks like he is going to start the season on the DL. The Marlins are going to score some runs, and if the pitching works out, I think they can challenge in this division. In this division, they are the one team that I think can surprise people.
• Expos: Dick Cramer, the founder STATS, Inc. and I were having a conversation about the AL East back in the mid-eighties. The division was very competitive back then, and Dick pointed out that most of the teams had two superstars. The teams that won were the ones that filled in around them well. The Expos have two superstars in Guerrero and Vazquez. But they really have very little supporting them. I'd love to see this team do very well, but I just don't see it happening this year. And I'm afraid, this will be their last year in Montreal. But I find it hard to believe they will do better than last in the division.
• Mets: The Mets are a hard call again. The good players on the team are old. The lineup 2-5 is as good as any in the division, if everything works out. I think Cedeno is a gamble at leadoff; he's had great years getting on base, and poor ones also. I really think the Mets would get more out of Alomar-Floyd 1-2. Mo Vaughn is a key, and he's having a good spring. Sanchez is an awful offensive player, and yet he's an improvement over Ordonez. The play of two rookies, Wigginton and Reyes may make or break the Mets season offensively. The rotation, despite the addition of Glavine, is not deep. Again, the two best pitchers, Leiter and Glavine, are old. The Mets strike me as half a team. I think they'll fight the Marlins for third place.
• Phillies: The Phillies have improved. Thome vs. Travis Lee is no contest. Millwood gives them a top #1 starter. But while improved, I don't think this is a great team. An excellent 3-4-5 is going to be hampered by two poor table setters. (If you put this 3-4-5 with the Marlins 1-2, you'd have an incredible offense.) However, I think their bottom of the order has the fewest holes in the division. They should lead the division in runs scored.

  And that should be enough. The pitching is good enough for the offense. The bullpen looks a little long in the tooth, and I don't know how much I trust Mesa as a closer. But this is a good team, as good as the Braves. They will be the favorite to win the division, but I don't think they are going to run away with it.