Predictions Archives

The Rays current winning percentage (.560) would yield ninety one wins over a 162 game schedule. I believe Baseball Prospectus predicted eighty eight wins for the team this season, CHONE 89. So far, so good.

Vegas Watch sends along a nice bit of research on weighting PECOTA predictions with Pythagorean projections to predict final standings. It shows Cleveland and Detroit rising to the top of the AL Central, and the Cubs winning with a nice cushion in the NL Central.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants start the season with a seasonal age 23 shortstop who never played above A ball and can't hit a lick. I suppose that's better than starting the season with an almost 41 year old shortstop that can't hit a lick. When you go around the Giants team, you find players who never hit or can't hit any more. Aaron Rowand takes Barry Bonds' place as the best offensive player on the team, but he's coming off a career year and is likely to regress. I would not be at all surprised if this turned out to be the lowest scoring team in the majors in 2008. They don't get on base, they don't hit for power, and I doubt they'll even have much of a batting average.

The pitching staff, unlike the position players, is young and talented. Cain, Correia and Lincecum all posted good numbers in 2007, and on a team with a decent offense they might each win 15 to 20 games. The best they can hope for in 2007 is good luck in close games.

Barry Zito remains a question mark. He turned in the highest ERA of his career as his strikeout rate continued to deteriorate. Barry posted awful numbers this spring as well, although that needs to be taken with a big grain of salt. This may go down as one of the worst pitcher signings, although it will be tough to beat Carl Pavano. What's worse, paying a pitcher a lot of money not to pitch, or to have him pitch badly?

I don't see the Giants competing with the other teams in the NL West. One hundred losses is a real possibility here.

San Diego Padres

There's a huge dichotomy between the Padres infield and outfield. Gonzalez, Iguchi, Greene and Kouzmanoff are all good players with upside at first, third and short. The outfield represents a huge question mark, however. Giles is old, Headley is young, and Edmonds is injured. Put that infield with two power corners and a good defensive centerfielder, and you have a pretty good team. Maybe some of that will happen. Headley's been sent down to AAA for a month to finish learning to play left. Supposedly Giles is healthy for the first time in a while and his power is coming back. Great seasons by those two would go a long way toward bring this club back to the playoffs.

They may not need that many runs anyway. Jake Peavy, Chris Young are great at the front of the rotation, and the back of the rotation is supported by a fine bullpen. That especially helps Maddux, who still pitches well but can't go deep into games anymore. The wild card is the oft injured Mark Prior. If he can work his way back into form my mid season, he'll provide a pitching boost to the team.

Right now, however, the question marks outweigh the certainty. With the outfield in shambles, it's tough to give the Padres as many wins as they earned last season. Right now, they look like a .500 team to me.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are a really good team that could be an even better team. They're certainly good enough to win the division, and with Kemp and Loney getting to play every day we should see an improvement in the team. The CBS Sportsline depth chart is now showing Ethier as the number one left fielder. That means only one of the two centerfielders they signed over the last two winters will play. If that's true, Torre is making the right move. Good for Joe.

With all the injuries at third base, the Dodgers are going young there as well as twenty two year old Blake Dewitt gets the assignment. His minor league batting numbers aren't anything great, but he looked like he could field his position against the Red Sox Saturday night. It's a golden opportunity for Blake to show he belongs in the big leagues.

The Dodgers rotation remains solid one through four, but the five spot as filled by Loaiza represents a big hole. If Esteban continues to pitch poorly, there must be some competent starter in the Dodgers organization who is capable of a sub-5.00 ERA.

I see this team with wins in the high 80s. My guess is the play of the youngsters will determine if they win the division or not.

Colorado Rockies

A good team usually sends out two great players, and surrounds them with a good supporting lineup. The Rockies send out three great players and surround them with two more who are close. Colorado returns five position players with at least twenty win shares. Holliday, Tulowitzki and Helton posted 30, 25, and 24 win shares respectively, while Hawpe and Atkins added 22 and 20. They keep mixing in new players, too, as Nix takes over at second, and an even better second baseman develops in the minors. If Chris Ianetta develops as a hitter this season, the Rockies might score even more runs than last season.

The pitching also looks to improve with youngsters. Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales move into the rotation full time, joining Francis and Cook. It's a mostly young team that's already good with most of their players at their peak. There's no reason they can't contend again in 2008. The fifth starter is a problem as Hirsh remains hurt, but all three contenders in this division face that same problem.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The addition of Dan Haren gives the Diamondbacks depth to a decent 2007 rotation. Webb was great, but there was over a run increase in ERA after the ace. That should change with Haren. On top of that, Randy Johnson looked good this spring, and he'll come off the disabled list soon to take over the third starter slot. That should give the Diamondbacks the top top of the rotation in the division.

Unfortunately, Arizona is going to lose Doug Davis' services due to thyroid cancer surgery. That puts the fifth slot into the hands of Edgar Gonzalez. Despite his high ERA, Gonzalez found his control in 2007, walking 28 in 102 innings. If he can repeat that ratio, he'll be fine.

The offense is a year older, and for most players in the lineup that means a year better. Justin Upton gets a full season to show what he can do. Stephen Drew disappointed in his first full season, but at age 25 he should be hitting his stride. Jackson, Reynolds, Young and Snyder should all be on the upswing of their careers.

This is definitely a better team than won the division in 2007. The front office realized that their record indicated a bit of luck, and fought against standing pat. They'll be a legitimate contender for the title in 2008.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division finishing:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

The first three teams are very close. Arrange them in any order you like, I just feel Arizona did the most to improve their team over the off season. The first four teams are likely to put the curvature of the earth between them and the Giants. It's good division, especially if you like great pitching.

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Cardinals

This is a sad team. Not two years removed from their World Championship, St. Louis looks like a team scraped from the scrap heap. Even their great players are questionable. Albert Pujols's elbow is hanging together by a thread. If it blows, the Cardinals offense goes down with it. One reason for the Troy Glaus move was to take his foot off artificial turf. He did hit well this spring, so that's a positive sign. The other power hitter in the lineup is a converted pitcher. This is easily the worst set of position players in the division even with Pujols.

When it comes to the rotation, Adam Wainwright looks like the real deal, but like Albert on offense, there's not much behind him. Is the Cardinals minor league system that barren that they need to use a converted reliever and Kyle Lohse?

This team is not going to score runs, they are not going to prevent runs, they're simply going to lose. This could the worst team Cardinals have seen since 1995.

Reds

About two weeks ago I previewed the Reds during the Baseball Musings radio show and didn't like the fact that they were going with veterans over youth. Since then, however, they've been forced to include Edinson Volquez in the rotation due to an injury to Matt Belisle. So the move that bothers me now is starting the disappointing Corey Patterson over the young and upcoming Jay Bruce.

This looks like a very good pitching staff. Harang and Arroyo are as good as any one-two pitching combination in the division. With Cueto and Volquez following, the Reds could have a good chance to win on four out of every five days. If Bailey starts well in the minors, he might move in to replace the Dragonslayer Josh Fogg, giving the Reds a potentially spectacular rotation. Of course, young pitching can break your heart. Until Cueto, Volquez and Bailey prove they are for real in the majors, the Reds rotation should be considered just okay.

The offense is a question mark as well. The good players on the offense are low level good. Compare them to the Phillies, who sport four players who earned over 20 win shares in 2007. The Reds best four (Dunn, Phillips, Encarnacion and Griffey) are in the high teens, with only Dunn over 20. So at the moment, there is no superstar hitting on the Reds, just a few very good players.

That might change if Votto can become the slugging first baseman the Reds have lacked for so long. Otherwise, I don't see the Reds doing that well. The pitching is good, but they'll need Dunn and Griffey to be the Dunn and Griffey of old to have a shot at the division.

Astros

The Houston Astros brought in a new manager, new general manager, and wholesale changes to the team. How much of a difference it makes isn't clear. Miguel Tejada was the big prize, but that depends on whether 2007 was an off year or the start of a career slide for the shortstop. Berkman, Lee and Pence, however, give the Astros three great hitters in the middle of the lineup. Michael Bourn is a bit of a wild card. At 25 years old, he should be entering his prime. When he was in the low minors, he posted impressive OBAs, but hasn't kept that up as he climbed to the majors. All-in-all, it's not a bad offense, although I'm curious to see how well Kaz Matsui does away from Coors.

The rotation suffers the same problem as last year. Roy Oswalt gives them one of the best starters in the league, but there's little behind him. Backe returns from injury and the terrible Woody Williams is gone. The offense is going to need to score a lot of runs for these pitchers to win.

Jose Valverde takes over the closer role for Houston. Lately, closing for the Astros has been like drumming for Spinal Tap. Let's hope Jose fares better.

Like most of the teams in the NL Central, this is a decent team with big holes. They're not likely to win the division, but it's so close anything can happen.

Pirates

I'm somewhat surprised that I like this Pirates team compared the other four also rans in this division. It's not that they have anyone great on the team, but almost all of the players are decent. The projected starting eight all posted over ten wins shares each in 2007. Snell and Gorezelanny are competent starters and Capps is a good closer.

I suspect Jack Wilson won't post 19 win shares again, but I also might expect better performances from Bay, Sanchez and McLouth. It's one of those teams that can fool you. They've been bad so long that they must be bad again, except that somehow they've put a decent player at each position. If you drop a couple of superstars in this lineup, you'd like this team a lot. In this division, .500 and third place would not surprise me at all.

The new management of the team appears to be doing a good job of demanding better from the team. The previous group talked a good game but never delivered. We'll see if this GM and manager can bring about some changes.

Cubs

Barbara Feldon. Camp bus songs. Nena. The number of seasons the Cubs played since their last championship. Yes, 2008 could be the 100th season of futility for the team from Wrigley. They won't go down without a fight, however. The NL Central champs return a team with a good offense, bolstered by their addition of Kosuke Fukudome. He looked like an OBA machine in the spring, drawing 15 walks to lead all spring training players. He'll joining a solid core of Lee, Ramirez and Soriano. Youngsters Soto and Pie should also contribute more than in 2007, while Mark DeRosa is the only player likely to see a falloff in his batting stats.

Pitching, however, was the Cubs great strength last season. The additions of Lilly and Marquis worked out better than expected, as Ted turned into a fine number two starter. Rich Hill doubled his innings from 2006 while maintaining his great strikeout and walk numbers while cutting down on his home runs allowed. Ryan Dempster moves from the pen to the rotation this season to round out the best rotation in the division.

That's a good move for two reasons. Dempster wasn't a great closer last year, and Kerry Wood is healthy and ready to mow down batters again. There's a huge upside potential for Kerry here, and the Cubs can gain some wins with this move. Will it be enough to repeat over a very good Brewers team, however?

Brewers

Milwaukee's lineup looks monstrous. The addition of Mike Cameron gives them four players who earned over twenty win shares in 2007. Ryan Braun did it in a partial season, so there's plenty of upside in his bat. The move to left takes away the downside of his defense and makes the team better in the that department overall. Hardy was close with nineteen win shares, and a better Rickie Weeks might hit twenty as well. This is still a young team, and so most of the arrows point up for better hitting.

There are up arrows in the rotation as well. A healthy Ben Sheets is among the best in the game. A full season from Gallardo would help as well, although he starts the year on the disabled list. Manny Para looks like the real deal, so this Brewers rotation should serve as a nice complement to their powerful offense.

There may be some problems at the end of the game, depending on whether the Texas Gagne or the Boston Gagne shows up in the ninth. If the offense and starting pitching turns out to be as good as they look right now, the Brewers will play a good number of blow outs, and the closer's role becomes less important. This is a very strong Milwaukee team is a relatively week division. While they still have something to prove, there's a good chance that the runaway start of 2007 doesn't fade in 2008, and Milwaukee wins the division easily.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division standing at the end of the season:

1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Pirates
4. Astros
5. Reds
6. Cardinals

You can pretty much interchange 3-4-5 in any order and get a reasonable set of standings. This division should be the Brewers for the taking. If Yost fails to win with a healthy version of this team, Milwaukee should really look for another manager.

Florida Marlins

The chance of the Marlins losing over 100 games stands very high. The starting rotation might be one of the worst I've ever seen. Andrew Miller might be good this year, or he might need another year or two to develop. Henderickson is just bad. He's had a chance to prove he can pitch in the majors and failed. Olsen pitched poorly in 2007, as did Vanden Hurk. Nolasco is trying to come back from an injury. There's not a lot of upside on the mound.

The offense at least boasts Hanley Ramirez, an MVP candidate in 2007. But outside of Willingham and Uggla, there is no one else who contributes that many wins. The replacement of Cabrera with Cantu should cost the Marlins about nine games off the 71 they won in 2007. With just a terrible team, 62 wins is going to be an optimistic goal for the team.

Washington Nationals

Washington Trots out a backward rotation this season. Lannan is projected to post the best ERA, but he's been temporarily sent to the minors. Chico is projected to pitch the most innings, and he's the fourth starter. The two best Washington pitchers from 2007, Redding and Hill are nursing injuries. They'll start Odalis Perez to open their new ballpark. Perez's 2007 ERA: 5.57. Still they'll probably perform better than the Marlins.

The offense isn't great, but there's room for optimism here. Nick Johnson takes over at first base. Manny Acta seems to be committed to putting the players with the best OBAs on the field, and Johnson does that very well. It would be easy to give Young the position and make Nick earn it, but Acta wants the selectivity in the lineup. Dukes and Milledge represent the Washington version of Moneyball. They pick up "problem" players cheaply. It worked with Dmitri Young last year. If it works in 2008, the Nationals might end up at the high end of their win expectation, between 70 and 75 wins.

Manny Acta and Fredi Gonzalez make for an interesting pair of managers to watch. Both came into the league the same year, both from coaching other AL East teams. Acta did a good job getting the most from his players, while Gonzalez seemed to let the Marlins slip into mediocrity. We'll see how both perform this season.

Atlanta Braves

Some are predicting the Braves to make the playoffs, but I just don't see it. Their offense is good, but not as good as either the Mets or the Phillies. The rotation is a bit better than the Phillies, but nowhere near as good as the Mets. On top of that, the rotation is old. Smoltz already suffered an injury and starts the season on the disabled list. Glavine just isn't very good anymore. Hampton missed the last two seasons recovering from injuries. Even Tim Hudson is over 30, and age when pitchers need to adjust to falling velocity. There's just a lot that can go wrong there.

Jair Jurrjens should be fun to watch, however. He's the prize for trading Edgar Renteria, and he makes the team as the fifth starter. He also keeps a representative from the Netherlands Antilles on the squad. He's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park during his minor league career.

The Braves are building a strong team up the middle. McCann, Johnson and Escobar are the start of a young core that can contribute to the Braves for many years. They just need to find a centerfielder to go with them. Otherwise, this is really a corner offensive team, with most of the runs coming from Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur. This team should win games somewhere in the mid 80s, but that won't be enough for the division. With the close wild card races, it's possible if the Brave can get to 89 wins they might find the post season.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies field the best offensive team in the NL East. All eight position players earned at least 12 win shares in 2007, with the big four of Utley, Rollins, Howard and Burrell collecting over 20 each. The Phillies have more than their share of superstars, coupled with good complementary hitters. There's no huge holes in the Phillies batting order. With the best players being relatively young, there's not much danger of a big fall off in production, either.

The rotation, however, contains some question marks. Hamels stands as a legitimate ace, but Brett Myers is making the transition back to the starting rotation. If he returns to his form of 2005-2006, that's a great 1-2 punch in the rotation. Jamie Moyer is old and fading. He doesn't have to be great, but at some point, three runs in six innings might turn into four, and then his value on this high scoring team goes way down. Adam Eaton is pretty close to useless.

Kyle Kendrick presents an interesting paradox. Kendrick neither walk nor strikes out batters, allowing a ton of balls in play. That usually leads to more hits, but the Phillies were very good last season at turning batted balls into outs behind Kyle. PMR shows that the balls in play against Kendrick were easy to field as well. So Kendrick may be a pitcher who doesn't fool batters enough to get a swing and a miss, but fools them enough that they don't get good wood on the ball. If this is a real talent, he's in good shape. If it's just that hitters haven't figured him out, he's in trouble.

At the other end of the game, Lidge went on the disabled list and Tom Gordon takes over the closer duties. Maybe we'll see Myers back there before the season is over. I see the Phillies winning in the high eighties and having a good shot at the division and wild card.

New York Mets

If you list Pedro Martinez with his two win shares from 2007, the Mets starting rotation still collected the most win shares among all the teams in the NL East. If you assume Pedro is healthy and can pitch like he did at the end of the season, fifteen win shares is not out of the question, and the Mets staff blows away the other four teams. On top of that, the Mets offense is just a few win shares behind the Phillies. They could even be better if Carlos Delgado rebounds from an off year.

The back of the Mets rotation is where they really shine, however. John Maine and Oliver Perez each posted eleven win shares in 2007. No other rotation shows a 3,4 or 5 starter cracking double digits. Maine may not have reached his peak, however, and we could see him move up this season. If Perez retains the improvements of last season, the Mets rotation will be one to rival the best Braves rotations of the 1990s.

The Mets should win the division, easily if indeed Pedro remains healthy. Of course, this was true last March as well.

Predictions

Here's how I see the NL East finishing:

1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

I don't see much chance of a surprise from the bottom two teams. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are close enough that injuries or a surprise career year could easily rearrange the top three. It should be a fun, three way race, or at least a two way race for the wild card if the Mets turn out to be as good as I believe they can be.

Correction: Fixed the name of the Nationals. My strat team is the Washington Senators. They're off to an 8-0 start and I got confused.

Kansas City Royals

I expect an improved team in Kansas City this season. Butler, Teahen and Gordon are a year older and more experienced. Jose Guillen adds some pop to the outfield. Zack Grienke gained control of his demons and pitched very well at the end of 2007, while Brian Bannister may be the most sabermetrically fluent pitcher in the game.

Still, there are a number of negatives. Tony Pena is an offensive black hole at shortstop. The back of the rotation offers very little; they're going to keep the bullpen busy. Mark Grudzielanek keeps getting playing time over Esteban German.

The X-Factor on this team is Trey Hillman. He did wonders for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and I've liked everything I've seen from him in spring training. The talent is there to compete with the Twins and possibly the White Sox. If Hillman can work his magic, and third place finish is a possibility for this squad. The main thing for Royals fans to realize is that this team is moving in the right direction.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins lost a good outfielder and a great pitcher over the winter. They may end up replacing the pitcher with Francisco Liriano. He's progressed well this spring, although he'll start the season in the minors to build his strength a bit more. They may have replaced the outfielder with Delmon Young. All that does, however, is keep them even with 2007, a season in they finished four games under .500.

The number one starter spot goes to Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is capable of pitching a high number of innings if you don't mind his giving up lots of runs. The Twins may need those innings to save the bullpen, however, as the rest of the rotation is very young, and even when Liriano returns Minnesota is likely to baby him. That will put pressure on a good bullpen. If they get burnt out, this team could go into a free fall.

I don't like the whole left side of the field, however. Lamb, Everett and Monroe just don't generate a lot of wins, leaving a lot of the hope of winning on the backs of Mauer and Morneau. If Mauer stays healthy, he should play better than in 2007, but Morneau slipped from his 2006 MVP year.

The Twins at best should finish about the same at last year, but I could easily see them falling to seventy wins in 2008.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are the best of the three also rans in this division. With Dye, Konerko and Thome, the team is still capable of generating offense. The additions of Swisher and Orland Cabrera improves the team up the middle, as the White Sox received little from short and center in 2007. If Carlos Quentin matures into a good hitter this season, the White Sox are going to do well in scoring runs.

Unfortunately, the decided to go with veterans over youth at second and third. I'm not sure how much difference it really makes to the team, but I'd rather gamble on the upside of Fields and Richar than stick with the predictable okayness of Crede and Uribe.

The pitching staff is fine at the top with Buehrle and Vazquez. Only the Indians have a better 1-2 punch in terms of 2007 win shares from those spots in the rotation. But for this team to do well, they'll need Danks and Floyd to develop into first rate starters.

The White Sox did improve the team, and I could easily see them winning 81 games this season. That, however, won't be enough for them to win the division.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers easily boast the best offense in the division. The lowest 2007 win share total for one of their nine batters was 13 by Ivan Rodriguez. Cabrera and Ordonez each generated at least 30, and two other were over 20. When Granderson returns, this is a lineup without holes.

On top of that, the trade for Renteria improves offense at first and defense at shortstop, without losing that much offense at the latter position. Renteria should be be able to make up for some of the range lost on the left side of the infield with Cabrera replacing Inge.

When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, everyone marveled at their pitching. The promise of that young staff faded in two years, however. Justin Verlander is rightfully the ace of the staff, but Jeremy Bonderman remains a frustrating player. At times he pitches brilliantly, but mistakes seem to prevent him from becoming truly great. Last year it was his problems in the first inning. Dontrelle Willis hasn't lived up to expectations either. One great season does not make a great pitcher. Now, given the Tigers' offense, they may not need these two to be great to win. If Bonderman and Willis shine, however, the Tigers should take the Central easily.

The one big concern on this team is injuries to the bullpen. With Rodney and Zumaya both on the shelf, teams might be able to score some runs in the seventh and eighth innings. It's another reason Willis and Bonderman need to get off to good starts, so they can go deep in games until the pen is healthy again.

This team should win over 90 games this year.

Cleveland Indians

Usually when a team fails to win the pennant, they look to fix the weak spots on their team. Cleveland, despite falling to Boston in the ALCS, decided their squad was fine as is and pretty much brings back the same players as in 2007. Asdrubal Cabrera gets to play full time this season. When the Indians place him at second in August they took off, running away with the division after that. Like Detroit, they own two 30 win share players in Martinez and Sizemore, but don't quite have the offensive depth of the Tigers. On the plus side, Travis Hafner should rebound from his below average 2007 season, which could boost the Indians offense a great deal.

While the Indians offense doesn't match Detroit's, no one comes close to Cleveland's starting pitching. Sabathia and Carmona each posted over 20 win shares in 2007. Westbrook and Bryd are decent back of the rotation pitchers, and Cliff Lee will try to show 2007 was a fluke. Cleveland can afford to have those three at the back of the rotation, because Sabathia and Carmona pitch so many innings, and they bullpen is really great. The Indians are one of the few teams I've seen where the middle relievers are better pitchers than the closer. The hurlers getting the game to Borowski all are strikeout artists, meaning the Indians can shorten game to as little as five innings if they can get the lead. I'm usually not big on bullpens. The small sample sizes of the pitchers make them tough to predict from year to year. Cleveland's pen, however, has the talent to make a real difference in the Central.

My main worry with this team is Fausto Carmona. His innings in 2007 went way up from 2006. He threw about 100 more innings over that previous season, and that's a warning sign for future injury.

Still, Cleveland remains a great team who should battle Detroit all year for the division title and everyone else in the league for the wild card.

Predictions

Here's my predicted order for the AL Central

1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City

I go back and forth on Cleveland and Detroit for the division, but right now the bullpens appear to be the deciding factor. It's very close however, maybe 51% Cleveland 49% Detroit. Kansas City and Minnesota should be competitive with each other. At this point, I assume that Liriano will pitch well, but if not, the Royals should finish fourth. I think it will be a good battle for third place with the White Sox, although don't expect any of these teams to be much above .500.

Dan McGowan invited me on his podcast to talk about the upcoming season. You can listen here.

Tim Daloisio is looking for people to take part in a wisdom of the crowds project to predict how Red Sox players will perform this year. The more people that participate, the better results he'll obtain.

Could this be the year another team challenges the Yankees and Red Sox for the top spot in the division? The AL East certainly looks like the best division in the AL. New York and Boston send out all-star lineups, very solid one through nine. The pitching on both teams features strengths, weaknesses and question marks. Toronto and Tampa Bay show strengths as well. This could turn out to be a very interesting division.

Baltimore Orioles

The easy prediction in this division puts the Orioles in last place. They project to have the worst offense and worst pitching staff in the AL East. The trades of Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada leave Orioles fans without a lot to enjoy on the major league level. Jeremy Guthrie, the play of Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, and the development of Adam Jones may be all they can cling to this summer.

Apart from those players, there's not much upside on this squad. Daniel Cabrera might fool us and find his control. That would make him a good pitcher and give the Orioles a chance to win 40% of the time. Otherwise, there's not much to expect from the older players on the team like Hernandez, Millar, Mora and Huff. Following the minor league system might be more rewarding.

Tampa Bay Rays

I didn't realize until I visited their MLB page today that not only did this team drop the name Devil, they dropped the whole fish motif. The Rays are now Rays of light, and you might say those rays mark the dawning of a new era in Tampa Bay.

Did you know that Kazmir and Shields combined for more win shares in 2007 (33) than Beckett and Matsuzaka (31), Halladay and Burnett (30) or Wang and Pettitte (30)? That's a pretty good 1-2 punch, and they are likely to get better. Kazmir starts the season on the disabled list, but a mid April return shouldn't hurt the team all that much. They add Matt Garza to the rotation which should be a plus. I'm very interested to see what Jason Hammel and Andy Sonnanstine do with a better defense behind them. The addition of Jason Bartlett replaces one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game with one of the best. That alone could make all these pitchers look a lot better.

The big story out of spring training was the demotion of Evan Longoria. In 42 spring at bats, he posted a .407 OBA and a .595 slugging percentage. Seven of his eleven hits went for extra bases. What's sad here is that the Rays are obviously making this move to delay Longoria's free agency clock and possibly his arbitration clock. Will a month without Longoria kill the Rays chances? Probably not, but if they miss the playoffs by a game or two, fans will remember this decision.

Even without Evan on the team early, the Rays show a lot of potential improvement on offense. Navarro, Gomes and Upton are young and have time to grow. A full season of Iwamura should help the team's OBA, as will playing time from Cliff Floyd. I suspect Carlos Pena will drop off a bit, but even a ten percent decline would still result in a great season.

The Rays dropped their Devil may care attitude and are walking toward the light. This may not be their year, but it should be the best year in franchise history.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto boasts the most solid pitching staff in the AL East. Granted, that depends on the continued health of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, but Toronto also sends out the three through five starters most likely to perform well in the division this season. I like Marcum's and Litsch's walk rates, and McGowan's strikeout rate. These three pitchers are capable of keeping the Blue Jays in every game. With a little run support, they'll be a very good back of the rotation.

That run support needs to come from a healthy Vernon Wells. While the Jays pitching looks to be the best in the division, the Jays offense isn't that far ahead of Baltimore. Even with a boost from Eckstein replacing McDonald at short and a healthy Wells and Overbay, this isn't a great hitting team. Rolen, Thomas, Stairs and Zaun are more likely to decline than improve. The pitching will need every run they can save to help this team win.

Boston Red Sox

When the Red Sox signed Bartolo Colon, I became aware that the Red Sox are skating on thin ice when it comes to their starting rotation. In 2007, the Red Sox supplemented their starting staff with great performances by Gabbard, Lester and Buchholz. Kason is now in Texas, while Jon and Clay moved into the rotation. With Schilling injured, the sixth pitcher becomes Julian Tavarez. It could turn out that Lester and Buchholz are great, but they are still young and inexperienced. They could easily run into rough spots.

Of course, Matsuzaka now has a year of major league experience under his belt. He's had a chance to learn the hitters and make adjustments, so he may be ready to emerge as a Cy Young candidate himself. It's a good rotation with a lot of upside potential, but they don't have much room for error.

The offense looks great once again. I wouldn't be surprised if Lowell fell off after the great season he posted in 2007, but Manny Ramirez seems to have rededicated himself to the game. He put himself through a tough workout regimen in the off season, and he's hoping the Red Sox will pick up his options the next two seasons. Moving his win shares from 15 to the high 20s will certainly help with that. In addition, Drew and Lugo are due for a rebound, and Ellsbury should improve the offensive side of centerfield. Scoring runs won't be a problem for this team.

With B.J. Ryan still questionable, the Red Sox also boast the best end of the game pitching in Okajima and Papelbon. It's a seven inning game when Boston has the lead.

New York Yankees

The Yankees offense still blows away the rest of the field. Even if you factor in likely declines off 2007 numbers by A-Rod and Posada, they're still and incredibly strong team, and those declines could easily be countered by a full season from a healthy Jason Giambi. The rest of the offense produced numbers that should be easily repeatable for 2008, meaning the Yankees are likely to lead the league in runs scored.

The question marks for the Yankees are in the starting rotation. Pettitte and Wang are solid, but behind them is an old Mike Mussina and two youngsters, Hughes and Kennedy. This rotation is actually very similar to Boston. Two good, dependable starters up front, and old guy in the middle and two inexperienced pitchers at the back end. Boston has the advantage between the old men as Wakefield is probably better than Mussina at this point, and that gives Boston a slight advantage there.

With Joba Chamberlain moving to the bullpen, the Yankees also can shorten games. I'd like to see Chamberlain perform over a longer period and Rivera bounce back from last year before I put them on a par with Okajima and Papelbon, however.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division ending in 2008:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees get the nod on their superior offense. The edge the Red Sox have in pitching isn't enough to make up the difference. You can flip the Jays and Rays and get just as good a prediction.

The one thing that could change everything is age. While the Yankees and Red Sox are working in youth, they still carry a number of older players. Boston signed Lowell, and the Yankees brought back Posada and Rivera for a few more years, on top of the long term A-Rod contract. While I don't expect any of these players to fade in 2008, the possibility exists that it could happen. What if Drew and Ramirez don't rebound, but find their 2007 declines were real? What if all those years catching catches up to Posada? What if injuries keep accruing to Matsui and Damon?

The Toronto Blue Jays brought in Rolen and Eckstein, but they might be subject to the same ravages of age, along with Zaun. This is where the young Rays have a chance. Almost everyone on the Rays is likely to play better this season. That, and a massive age attack in the other three cities could put Tampa Bay on top. Let's say I don't put a high probability value on the above standings. It's an exciting division where anything can happen.

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Two months ago I thought this division would be a cake walk for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (LAnaheim Angels), but now I'm not so sure. Not only do the injuries to the Angels front line pitching hurt the team, but I get the feeling people are underestimating that Seattle Mariners. Here's a look at the division.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers are building a strong team up the middle. With Saltalamacchia, Young, Kinsler and Hamilton, the middle of the diamond could turn into a tremendous strength for the Rangers as Daniels continues to slowly put this team together. It looks like the Rangers don't think Jarrod S. is quite ready to take over the catching duties from Laird, but still I like the direction Texas is headed.

Unfortunately, Daniels still needs to build a decent team around that middle. In order to compete this season, the Rangers are going to need a number of players to be outstanding. A healed Hank Blalock would need to show that it truly was injuries, and not a lack of talent that led to his long offensive slide. Kevin Millwood needs to return to the form that led the American League in ERA. Gabbard and McCarthy (when healed) need to show that they were worth the trades. Jason Jennings needs to show that he's healthy and back to his 2006 form. Milton Bradley needs to keep his cool.

That's a lot to ask. The more likely scenario is that some of these players perform well, and some keep disappointing. This team has a way to go before they're ready to challenge for a division title, but at least they look like they're set to improve over the next few seasons.

Oakland Athletics

This is a rebuilding year for Oakland. They traded away two of their best, young players in Haren and Swisher to stock up on prospects so they are ready to compete in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, they didn't shed two players that pulled them down recently, Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. Chavez, however, is seriously injured. Instead of being ready for opening day, the A's shut down his rehabilitation. This opens the door for Jack Hannahan to move into third base. That may turn out to be a positive for Oakland. Hannahan is not a prospect nor anyone who is going to be a star. He is 28, right in his prime, with a good minor league OBA but little power. Given the poor performance by Chavez last season, it's tough to believe Hannahan won't be an improvement.

There are some good and potentially good offensive players on this team. Cust, Buck and Barton could all turn in excellent seasons. Offensively, I really like the idea of Suzuki catching every day. Those four, and another good year from Ellis and the A's have a decent chance of scoring some runs.

On the pitching side, the big question concerns the health of Rich Harden. A healthy Harden more than makes up for the trade of Dan Haren. He's pitched seventeen innings this spring. They're not great innings as he's struck out thirteen and walked seven, but he's still pitching. That give the Athletics a chance to pick up a big positive from their number one starter.

To me, that's the most encouraging thing about the Oakland lineup. When I go up and down the win shares of the likely starters from last year, I see a number who can and should do better in 2008, and almost no places where I would write a minus sign. Is that enough to get them into contention in the division? Probably not, but it's enough to make them an interesting team to follow in 2008.

LAnaheim Angels

The Angels start in a huge hole as their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar begin the season on the disabled list. Instead of replacing Ervin Santana's three win shares with Jon Garland's thirteen, they are replacing Lackey and Escobar's forty win shares with Garland's and Moseley's eighteen.

On top of that, I'm wondering when we are going to see decent production out of the youngsters in this lineup. Napoli, Kendrick, Kotchman and Aybar are all between 24 and 26, which means we should be seeing something near peak this season from them. Maybe the four all mature together, much like the Rockies youngsters did last season. So far, however, I've been less than impressed with the Angels prospects turning into major leaguers.

I also wonder if Vlad, Hunter and Figgins can repeat their 2007 production. The two outfielders are over 30 years old, so the probability of a decline becomes greater. Figgins career is so up and down it's tough to predict what he'll do. Down arrows go next to all three, although I don't expect Vlad and Hunter to go down that much.

Still, I don't see why I should be optimistic about the Angels, even though they won last season.

Seattle Mariners

All winter I read negative stories about the Mariners from Mariners fans. The team was lucky last year, so you need to knock them down a peg before you start with a 2008 projection. The offense gets bad marks. Why are they going to trade Adam Jones? The list goes on.

However, in the spring of 2007 I picked Seattle as my surprise team, and they stayed in contention a good long while. I really don't see why they shouldn't again. They have a solid team. Ichiro is every bit as good as Vlad Guerrero, although their skill set is different. Raul Ibanez posted as many win shares as Torii Hunter in 2007, and his averages were consistent with his career. Why shouldn't he be even with Hunter in 2008? Beltre, while still not living up to his contract, isn't exactly playing poorly. Betancourt and Johjima are good players. At DH, Vidro is at least as good if not better than Garrett Anderson. Until the Angels youngsters prove themselves, Seattle looks like they have better position players than LAnaheim.

Putz outperformed K-Rod in the closer role in 2007. While Rodriguez may play better in 2007, does anyone really expect Putz to do worse? In the rotation, the Mariners jettisoned two terrible pitchers and replaced them with Bedard and Silva. I have no reason to believe these two won't be better than Ramirez and Jeff Weaver.

I just don't see the reasons for pessimism with this team. They're not the class of the AL, but they don't need to be to win this division. It's a good team, and they have the possibility of sending out two aces at the top of the rotation in Bedard and Hernandez. I like their chances a lot.

So my pick for the final order of the 2008 AL West:

1. Seattle Mariners
2. LAnaheim Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

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The Baseball Crank analyzes the AL East race using Estimated Win Share Levels (EWSL) and sees the Rays very differently than Nate Silver.

Brian Kamenetzky looks at what the injuries to Lackey and Escobar mean for the AL West.

Squawking Baseball posts NL over and unders for team wins. They predict the Mets take the NL East with the best record in the league, while the Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies all make the playoffs. Unlike the AL, the Mets are the only great team in the league, and there will be the usual dogfight for the other playoff spots.

Interestingly, Squawking Baseball picks eleven teams to beat their win projections, meaning the teams that play under should play very badly.

Squawking Baseball looks at how he'd bet the over/unders for wins by American League teams. I just like the way these numbers rank the teams, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Detroit all tied at 93.5. I also find it interesting that both Tampa Bay and Oakland each come in at 73.5. I'd probably take the over on both of them.

The Baseball Analysts bring in an Angels blogger and a Mariners blogger for their roundtable discussion of the ALWest. The more I look at this division, the more I like the Mariners.

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Nate Silver goes on the record at SI.com with a prediction that the Rays will win twenty two more games than the Devil Rays did last season.

It's in the field, though, that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently.

I hope Nate is right. It will be fun to have a third team competing for the top spot in the division.

David Bloom creates a nice tool at Many Eyes to visualize the Chone projections. Here's the hitters, and the pitching plots are here.

CHONE projections put the Tampa Bay Rays in contention in the AL East this season. I was thinking they might reach .500 in 2008 then break out next season.

Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.

Ryan Dempster thinks the Cubs will win the World Series and he'll pitch 200 innings. You have four to go, Ryan.

Sal Baxamusa at The Hardball Times shows how hot and cold streaks can move projections.

U.S.S. Mariner keeps running simulations of the 2008 season to see how Seattle will fare. Impressively, the Oakland Athletics are the most successful franchise in the West. I was surprised at how well the offense did in the lineup analysis using Marcels. ZiPS is giving them the chance to win overall. This may turn out to be Billy Beane's greatest moment.

Hat tip, BBTF.

U.S.S. Mariner runs a simulation based on ZiPS and gets very ugly results for the 2008 Seattle Mariners.

Yanksfans vs. Soxfan uses the newly release PECOTA (subscription required) projections to predict the Red Sox won-lost record.

The Brock6 system nailed most of the rest of Bonds career after the 1996 season, but fell short on home runs.

Bob Sikes saw a Mets deal for Santana coming in 2006.

Johan Santana just might be a Spartan. The Bill James Handbook 2008 lists pitchers with a chance of reaching 300 wins on page 465. Number two on that list with a 29% chance of making it is Johan Santana.

The Chone Projections for 2008 are available here. It shows Posada with a very good 2008, Manny Ramirez declining and Alex Rodriguez still very good. Offensively, at least, teams should concentrate on Torii Hunter over Andruw Jones.

Matthew Swarner writes:

Oh so long ago, you posted some predicted standings that I had collated from sports reporters, bloggers, and other writers around the internet. Here are the results:

The best of the prognosticators: Matthew Carruth of Hardball Times called 18 of 30 teams correctly and missed by only 1 place for 11 other teams. His biggest mistake was picking the Rockies to finish dead last, but he certainly wasn't alone in that error. Other top finishers included Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus, Al Yellon of bleedcubbieblue.com, Buster Olney of ESPN, and the automated predictions of BP's PECOTA.

The worst: John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has the biggest plate of crow to eat. Six teams ended the season three or more spots away from his predicted standings: Arizona, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Texas, and the Chicago Cubs. However, he still has at least one prediction to boast about. Out of 87 other prognosticators, Perrotto was the only one to pick Colorado to finish among the top 2 in the NL West. Other names in the bottom 10 predictors: Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe, Steve Philips at ESPN, and (gulp) David Pinto of Baseball Musings.

As for the teams, here's what I wrote you on April 2nd:

Anyway, this season looks like it's going to be great. People are really having a hard time picking between Detroit and Cleveland, Mets and Philly, Arizona and San Diego, and St. Louis/Chicago/Milwaukee. But Washington and Kansas City--now that's something nobody argues about.

Most of those races did continue into September, but almost no one saw the Rockies finishing above 4th place and most people were in agreement that the Yankees would take the AL East. Adjusting for number of teams within each division, Colorado was the hardest team to predict, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers failing expectations and the Seattle Mariners exceeding them. The easiest predictions were a couple last place teams (Kansas City and Pittsburgh), the Angels winning the AL West, and the AL East outside of the top 2 (Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay). The Nationals should receive some credit for surpassing almost everyone's expectations (even if the outcome was only next to last), as should the Diamondbacks, the Cubs, and the above-mentioned Rockies and Mariners. The teams that disappointed the most predictions were the Dodgers, Athletics, Marlins, and Rangers.

Well, I did have the Rockies finishing third, at least, but Arizona last. My advice, don't trust my picks! I hope he does this next year as well. It will be good to see if any experts hold up, or if this whole process is rather random. Also, maybe Matt can post the consensus standings somewhere by doing a Borda count on the predictions.

Dave Krieger of the Rockey Mountain News apologizes for underestimating the Rockies:

I did not appreciate the kid Rocks sufficiently.

Back on March 1, I wrote in this space that the Rocks would win 85 games this year. Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, they won No. 86. And they still have four to play.

In my defense, this is all uncharted territory. The Rocks are guaranteed the best record in their 15-year history. Their current 10-game winning streak is the longest in the big leagues this year. They are one game behind San Diego in the wild-card race and two behind Arizona for the National League West division flag.

"The average fan might not have seen this coming, but the average baseball person did," Ken Rosenthal wrote on FoxSports.com a couple of days ago.

Frankly, the average baseball person kept awful quiet about it. Back in March, I got a lot of mail calling my prediction idiotic, but not one correspondent called it too low. Or Tulo, for that matter.

He may also lose a bet to the Rockies owner, who picked the club to win the NL West.

Update: Just to be fair, here's my look at the NL West from the start of the season. I had the Rockies third in a coin toss division.

Sometimes I get these things right. From April 17, 2007:

I missed Bill James' Q & A to the class since I got the time wrong, but saw a very nice presentation on the minor leagues by Andy Andres, Tony Massarotti and Ted Trey (owner of the Worcester Tornadoes). Afterward, a few of us were talking with Bill and he asked how many wins the Yankees would earn this year. I thought 90 to 95, but most thought I was over estimating based on the New York pitching. But tonight is a perfect example of my argument. The offense is so good, the pitching staff just needs a 4.50 ERA for a big season. Chase Wright comes up, gives them five innings, and allows three runs. Meanwhile, the offense just bombs Jake Westbrook, chasing him from the game after 1 2/3 innings. That score held up through seven innings so far. This staff just needs to be okay, and my opinion is they're good enough.

Now, that group was made up mostly of Red Sox fans, but still they represented a nice set of intelligent baseball researchers. As of today, if the Yankees can maintain a .566 winning percentage, they'll finish with 92 wins. The team's ERA is 4.51.

Of course, now that I've written this they'll probably go on a losing streak and end up with 89 wins. :-)

Vegas Watch looks ahead to what the second half might bring in the National League.

Vegas Watch looks ahead to the second half, breaking down all the AL teams.

Here's an example of using betting lines to gauge team strength. And here's the same thing for the NL. I surprised the Yankees are so high in the AL and the Marlins are so low in the NL. But that's the wisdom of crowds.

Jimmy Rollins stands firm in his belief that the Phillies are the team to beat:

Rollins stood in the middle of the small visitors' clubhouse, making himself easily available to anyone who wanted to ask him a question. He wasn't surly, or even defiant. He even had a sense of humor about the way the crowd had given him the New York treatment, waving to them as he came off the field in the eighth inning, as the "Jim-my Roll-ins, Jim-my Roll-ins," chant echoed throughout Shea.

"The crowd was great," he said with a laugh. "They are fans, they're supposed to get on the other players, and try to get under your skin. I like that, I really do."

Above all, Rollins was firm in his position that he'd said what he'd said for a reason, and he had no regrets.

"I don't have to defend it," he said. "If I didn't feel it, I wouldn't have said it. I try to tell it the way it is. Sometimes it needs to be said.

"It's like with your wife. If you don't tell her you love her, even though she knows it, (she) still wants to hear it. With us, the feeling is there, that, 'Hey, we are good,' but sometimes you need to hear it to really believe it."

Good for him. Now he and the Phillies just need to prove it.

When I think about who might win the NL MVP, the candidates come easily. Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard are at the peak of their production and already great hitters, and you can easily throw out half a dozen other likely candidates. But in thinking about the AL candidates, I found myself naming older players (Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, Vald Guerrero) or young ones (Mauer, Morneau). I wasn't coming up with names in the prime years of production, so I looked to see who was playing this year with a seasonal age between 25 and 28 (born from 7/1/1978 to 6/30/1982). So here's some names at an age where you might see an MVP season:

• Hank Blalock. Disappointing is the word for Blalock so far. Maybe if Ron Washington works some magic, he'll return to the form of his early career. I don't hold much of a chance of him winning the MVP, but now's the time for him to break out.
• Carl Crawford. Carl does things sports writers like. He hits for a high average, runs well, and has some power. If he can get his homer total over 30, he'll pull in some votes.
• Jhonny Peralta. He'll need to return to his 2005 numbers, but any time a shortstop posts a great offensive season, he should be an MVP candidate. How much his defense holds him back only the voters know.
Alex Rios. His power took a big step forward in 2006, and he'll need to take another to have a shot at the award. And avoid freak illnesses.
• Nick Swisher. His on base average and slugging percentage are fine, but he needs to make them great to win the award from first base. His low batting average makes him less appealing to voters.
• Mark Teahen. Like Rios, Teahen needs to keep improving his power numbers. A poor offense around him will hurt his RBI totals, which voters love.
• Mark Teixeira. His 2005 number put him seventh on the MVP ballot. If he can crack 40 homers or more, he'll move up from that spot.
• Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis' seasonal age is 28 this year and he's never shown a lot of power. He's a long shot.

If you think I missed some age appropriate AL player, let me know.

The NL West shapes up as another division any team can win. From the Dodgers to the Diamondbacks, the West will be decided by the strength of improvement from rookies or decline from veterans. Don't be surprised to see a repeat of the jockeying for first place that happened last season.

With San Diego, the key to success is Jake Peavy. The Padres ace suffered from a bad shoulder in 2006. A healthier Peavy contends for the Cy Young award. His strikeouts were great this spring, 27 in 23 innings pitched. He did allow three homers and nine walks, the walks a little on the high side for him. But the strikeouts are a very good sign. If the Padres can get another season of improvement from Chris Young, they'll trot out a fine 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

That's actually a theme for this division. With the possible exception of the Rockies, each teams owns an excellent pair of pitchers at the top of the rotation. Which franchise ends up with the best staff depends on how they fill out the other three spots. The Padres give two-fifths of their starts to ancient pitchers, Greg Maddux and David Wells. Given their ages, both are huge question marks, especially now that Wells was diagnosed with diabetes. David did not put up very good numbers in spring training, allowing a ton of hits.

There are some positives on offense as well. The replacement of Josh Barfield with Marcus Giles looks like it will bring about a short term improvement at the position. Marcus is declining, but right now he brings more wins to the Padres than the maturing Barfield would. Kouzmanoff put together a great spring, and should add lots of life to the Padres offense from third base. There just aren't a lot of places on this team where the Padres might get worse. Cameron and Brian Giles are at an age when decline happens, but the up arrows on offense should balance that. The Padres are at least as good as 2006, and probably better.

The Dodgers 1-2 punch comes from Jason Schmidt and Derek Lowe. And while these two are good, there's not much upside there. The Padres can expect Peavy to bounce back from injury, the Giants are counting on Cain to improve, and the Diamondbacks hope Randy Johnson's surgery returns him to form. But with Lowe and Schmidt, what you see is what you get. Backing them up is Randy Wolf, who hasn't pitched a complete season since 2003, Brad Penny who walke