Kevin Youkilis and Mark Loretta combined to get on base seven times today, scoring four runs in the process as the Red Sox defeated the Orioles 10-3. Given Youkilis' three year record now of getting on base, I wonder why the Red Sox did not find a place for him sooner. At 27, he's at the peak of his prowess. While he'll certainly be good for a number of years, the Red Sox missed out on his full peak value.

It's good to see Jose Reyes realizes the weakness in his game:

Jose Reyes had an NL-best 60 steals last season, even with a modest .300 on-base percentage. And while the speedster didn't offer a prediction for '06, he did note: "When I get on base more, I'm going to be a danger."

He's looking forward to working with Rickey Henderson and Julio Franco.

This post at DePodesta For President made me want to look to see just how poorly NL lead off men were doing this season.

The coasts are in poor shape. I'm surprised by both the Mets and Dodgers having production this bad at the top of the order. The Mets surprise me because Willie Randolph was the quintessential lead off man, and he has Mickey Rivers hitting first. The Dodgers surprise me because DePodesta is the GM, and you'd think he'd supply Tracy with someone who could get on base from the #1 hole.

The heartland is well represented at the top of the heap with the Reds, Brewers and Cubs all having 1 or two players near the top of the pile. However, I'd like to know what happened to players like Rickey Henderson and Wade Boggs? Or even Brett Butler? These players got on base at about a .400 clip even in a low run era. I don't know why baseball has moved away from that type of player at the top of the lineup.

Darren Everson points out that Jason Giambi is leading the Yankees in on-base average.

Peter Gammons pens an excellent article on how players can learn plate discipline. This flies against Billy Beane's assertion in Moneyball that established players can't be changed. Here's Buck Showalter on Dave Dellucci:

"Dave did a lot of work looking at tapes and studying pitchers and figured it out," Rangers manager Buck Showalter says. "Look, there are only about 10 pitchers in our entire league who get hitters out in the strike zone. The rest get hitters out of the zone. He studied video, studied and learned to lay off pitches out of the zone."

The ability to hit with two strikes appears to be key. On Brandon Inge:

Then this spring, as he took the third base job, Mick Kelleher told him to try batting leadoff. "He told me that I'm a good two-strike hitter, so take a couple of pitches and let the hitters behind me see what the pitcher's got. I took three balls, then two strikes, and it felt natural. I really believe that one can learn to take pitches, be patient and get on base. Yes, it's a state of mind, but it's really important that one not be afraid to hit with two strikes. Up to two strikes, I try to hit like Darin Erstad, who I respect as much as anyone in the game, then at two strikes I do what I have to do."

"That's a huge key," says Red Sox hitting instructor Mike Barnett, "because not being afraid of hitting with two strikes is a key to plate discipline." Ask Barnett, and he'll tell you that Orlando Hudson and Russell Adams can both be very good major league leadoff hitters.

The obvious comparison to Wade Boggs follows. Inge, Dellucci, Damon and Izturis have all improved their plate discipline over their careers. And of course, a big change for Sosa that allowed him to pursue both Maris and Aaron was improved plate discipline in the middle of his career. At least some players can learn to take a pitch.

Scott Miller writes an interesting article about the difference in offensive approach between the Angels and the Athletics.

While the Angels ranked 14th in the AL and 28th in baseball last year with 450 walks, Oakland was third in the AL and fifth in the majors with 608.

Yet, in on-base percentage, while Oakland ranked fifth in the AL and ninth in the majors at .343, the Angels were right with them -- sixth in the AL and 13th in the majors at .341. And on the final weekend of the season, the Swingin' Angels won the first two games of a series in Oakland to steal the division title.

As you read the whole article, Miller confuses walks and OBA. While drawing a lot of walks helps a team have a high OBA, it's not the only way to achieve a high OBA. The Angels strike out the least of any team in the AL; the more balls you put into play, the more are going to get through for hits (Ichiro is the single player example of this).

It doesn't matter how you get on base, as long as you get on base. And there's no doubt that hits are a superior way of getting on base because they can move other runners long distances, and often put the batter beyond first base. My problem with teams and players who don't walk is that they have a weakness that potentially can be exploited. That's what happened in the ALDS. The Angels struck out 28 times in three games because the Red Sox were able to exploit that weakness.

The Angels have a perfectly legitimate approach to offense that works just fine. A good pitching staff, however, can exploit their aggressiveness and get them to swing at lousy pitches.

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Barry Bonds drew his 200th and 201st walk last night. He's been intentionally walked 104 times. His 97 unintentional walks is a perfectly reasonable total. This fear of Bonds is just too great. I don't want a rule change to stop this, I want teams to realize that using the IBB this much is bad strategy. All it does is save the manager from some embarassing question when Bonds hits a HR. Reporters won't bother the skipper if the #5 batter hits one after the walk. The real question should be, "Why can't your pitchers get Bonds out?"

Update: The Athletic Reporter makes a very similar arguement, only much funnier.

Congratulations to Barry Bonds for setting the all-time walks record yesterday. From the top 10 list on that page, it looks like 1700 walks is the cut off for the Hall of Fame. :-) It also shows just how good an eye Darrell Evans had.

Correction: It was Darrell Evans, not Dwight Evans, who was 10th in walks. Thanks to a commentor for pointing this out.

Gerald Laird is having a very nice season for Texas. He has a hit and a run scored today, and now has a .371 OBA. He's been batting at the bottom of the order, and is likely a big reason that leadoff men Young and Blalock are in the top 10 in the AL in RBI.

It's nice to see Craig Biggio returning to form as a superb leadoff man. After 10 straight years with an OBA of .370 or higher, Biggio dropped to .330 and .350 the last two seasons. With a 3 for 4 tonight, Craig is at .411 and has scored 24 runs in 28 games.

Ronnie Belliard has become a great leadoff man for the Indians. He's been on base four times for the Indians today, and his OBA now stands at .511. It's a huge leap for him; his career OBA was .348 coming into today. He's drawing walks like the 2000 Belliard, which is just what the Indians need at the top of the lineup. Seems he found what was lost.

Irina Paley responds to my criticism of her post on the subject of Soriano and Henderson.

West 116th Street pens this comparison of Rickey Henderson and Alfonso Soriano. As Soriano leading off was the subject of my very first baseball post, I'm compelled to comment.

Just recently, I downloaded some video files of Rickey's at bats, and it's completely obvious - when he went up to the plate, he had one thought in mind: to get on base. Rickey needed to get on base, so he could steal. And he needed to steal, so that he could score. If you pop up, or fly out, you can't steal. Rickey hit his share of homers - his career record for leadoff home runs is in that very same safe vault as his stolen base record. But Rickey new that his job was to score, and in his case, the best way that he could reach home was to get a base hit, and advance on his speed. So in most at bats, he didn't swing for a home run, he swung for a single. His career runs scored record (another, very snug and safe record) proves that. It also proves that Rickey Henderson was the best leadoff man in history, and the most valuable player for any team, since the way to win the game is to score runs.

(Emphasis added.) I would disagree with the fact of this statement, but not its intention. Rickey doesn't care how he reaches base. Rickey is just as happy to reach base by a walk as by a hit. Henderson is waiting for a pitch he can hit; if he doesn't get such a pitch, he'll take it. If he does get something to hit, he tries to cream it. Remember, when Rickey won the MVP in 1990, he was 2nd in the league in slugging percentage behind Fielder, so he could hit for power as well as get on base.

Soriano swings for a home run. I always thought that was Sori's biggest problem. That, combined with his awful plate discipline, is what throws him into those awful extended slumps. It is difficult to rectify that, when Soriano's leadoff strategy is rewarded with such coveted honors as consecutive 30/30 seasons, and a climb up the single season leadoff home run ladder. (I suppose I contribute to the problem, since my whole man-over-math baseball schtick makes me the first to jump and cheer for such unlikely feats).

But, according to Joe Torre, I am completely wrong. During this evening's pre-game show on WCBS radio, the skipper talked about how great leadoff home runs are, and how the energy that is created by the homer off the first pitch of the game gives the dugout a boost of inspiration. I suspect, Torre was caught up in the moment, because his bottom line is clear - to score runs and to win games. But those comments made me question my firm convictions about leadoff strategy. As impressed as I am by each one of Sori's leadoff home runs, I never considered that they could add any more value to the team then the one run scored. A 30+/30+ season is a sign of a very good, very well rounded player. But is that the approach that will take one to leadoff greatness of Henderson's magnitude?

Well, those comments shouldn't make you question your firm convictions. Leadoff HR are nice, but getting on base 40% of the time is much better. And being a 30/30 (or 40/40 or whatever) do not make you a well rounded player. They just show that your game is good in two dimensions; and one of those dimensions isn't particularly valuable. The truth is that Rickey's stolen bases had very little impact on his runs scored, that if Henderson had never attempted a stolen base, he'd still be a great leadoff man and still be in the Hall of Fame. Using Bill James runs created formula from the late 80's, with SB and CS, Rickey creates 2147 runs. With SB and CS he creates 2014 runs. So basically, Rickey added about five runs per season with his steals. That's not a lot.

As I've said before, Soriano's strength is his power. His stats (low OBA, high slugging percentage) are more valuable at the end of the offense than at the beginning. He should be batting fourth or fifth, behind Jeter, Williams and Giambi. If the Yankees moved him there for a full season, you might see him post 160 RBI. But unless he has a Sammy Sosa revelation, he'll never come close to Rickey's leadoff greatness.

I'm just looking at the Tampa Bay boxscore, and Ben Grieve is batting fifth with a .405 OBA. Ben's power isn't there, so why doesn't Piniella lead off with Grieve? In the past, he hasn't stolen much, but he's been very successful when he has (8 out of 10 last year, 24 out of 29 for his career). You need someone on in front of Baldelli, and Crawford isn't getting it done.

Orlando Palmeiro is doing a great job of replacing JD Drew for the Cardinals. He's batting at the top of the order and has a .500 OBA on the season. He also has a 3-run HR tonight and 4 RBI.

The Brewers out homered the Giants 4-2 today, but lost the game 7 to 5. All four of the Milwaukee HRs were solo shots (as were the Giants HR). The Brewers only drew one walk in the game. If they had been able to put a few more people on base, they might have scored more runs on those homers.

The Giants had 12 hits and 6 walks, the Brewers 10 hits and 1 walk. Milwaukee was 1 for 4 with runners in scoring position, the Giants 2 for 12. So even though the Giants had a worse BA in that situation, having more men on base gave them lots more opportunities.

Looking at the Phillies boxscore, I'm impressed by two things:

1. Jim Thome's torrid start (he has a triple today).
   
2. The lack of OBA from the 1-2-3 hitters.
   

Thome is slugging over .900 in four games, but has only 1 RBI. He's knocing the cover off the ball, but there's no one to drive in. Abreu will get on; his career OBA is very good. But Polanco is at best okay, and Rollins is poor. So if you start to see "Why isn't Thome driving in runs" articles, you'll know the reason.

Dan Lewis revives the Bonds Tracker, although I believe game streak records don't cross seasons.