Red Reporter plays off a Walt Jocketty quote to try to determine if the Red really will be better base runners in 2009. The Jocketty quote reminds me of the direction George Steinbrenner took when the Yankees sign Dave Collins away from the Reds:

The signing of Dave Collins in December 1981 epitomized the change in the Steinbrenner system. Changing Styles

With the Yankees having thrived forever on power, the owner decided the team should change to a running game. Collins was the speediest free agent available, and it didn't matter that the Yankees already had solid players at the positions he played.

The Red play in a home run hitters park. They are playing against their strength by going for speed.

I bought the Storm anyway. I wrote this from the phone.

I thought that Victorino's attempt to score on B.J. Upton was the poorest play of game one of the World Series. Here's why it happened:

Oh, and on my trying to score on that shallow fly ball. That was a miscommunication between [third base coach] Steve Smith and myself. I heard, 'go.' He said, 'No.'

I'm sorry, aren't players supposed to read scouting reports so they now which outfielders can throw and which ones can't? Secondly, confusing an N and a G is not a common speech recognition error. Ns are confused with Fs and Vs, which is why you'll hear niner in radio communications so the listener doesn't think it was five. If the word that meant "start running now" was "fo", Shane would have a case. Given the depth of the fly, and the scouting report on Upton, Shane should have expected "no", instead of having go fever.

Brandon Duckworth picked off Carlos Gomez in the second inning, recorded as a caught stealing. The Royals starter faked him out with the fake to third throw to first play. So yes, it does work. The teams are tied at two in the bottom of the sixth.

With Willy Aybar on first after leading off the second with a single, Eric Hinske hits a ball off the top of the wall in left-center. Hinske, intent on watching the play, turns on the burners and heads for third with an easy triple. Unfortunately, Aybar stopped at third. He tries to score but is thrown out at the plate. Keeping his eye on the ball cost the Rays an out. He then fails to score on a groundout to A-Rod's left, and Mussina strikes out Gross to end the inning. The game is scoreless after two.

Bleeding Blue and Teal links to a video to Adrian Beltre getting hit by a batted ball. He was on second with a runner on first, Beltre is called out and the batter gets a hit. The ball was likely a double play grounder, however, and Eric Wedge argued that Beltre intentionally interfered with the ball. It wasn't as blatant as Reggie Jackson in the World Series, but he certainly looked like he turned to present a bigger target to the ball. If the umps had seen the play as intentional, they would have granted a double play and the inning would be over. Instead, Seattle scores another run in the 10th inning, and wins the game 4-3.

Jerry Manuel and Carlos Beltran operate from different philosophies when it comes to base stealing:

He said someone like Carlos Delgado may try to surprise an opponent with a stolen base. But mostly (surprise, surprise) he wants to see guys like Carlos Beltran run more. He believes Beltran is too concerned with his stolen base percentage, which is, as you know, historically good.

"I would hope Carlos will run into a couple outs just to get that percentage thing out of his mind," Manuel said. "That's going to be addressed because that's an important part in what we're going to do going forward."

For his career, Beltran steals at an 88.2% clip.

"When I get opportunities to steal bases I will do it," said Beltran, who has 11 steals this year. "But it has to be the right time, the right opportunity."

I tend to come down on Beltran's side in this argument. The break even point for stealing in an era when offense is plentiful is fairly high. Beltran helps his teams with that high percentage; he's not giving away outs, something the Mets can ill afford to do right now.

Manuel does have a point, however. If Beltran ran more, and stole at an 82% clip, he'd still be helping the team. Defensively, teams tend to be overly concerned with the stolen base, so making them more concerned is probably a good thing. We'll see how this one plays out.

The Oakland Athletics stole five bases in their 12-6 win over the Texas Rangers. That's something the team hasn't done since 7/23/1995. No one was caught stealing, which makes them 19 or 23 on the year. This is a team that only runs when they are extremely confident they can make it, so taking off five times means they felt the battery anchored by Saltalamacchia was an easy target. Obviously, the were right.

Still down 2-1, Ojeda singles leading off the eighth for the Diamondbacks. With Byrnes at the plate with two strikes, Ojeda tries to steal. Eric swings and misses, but Ojeda steals second. The home plate umpire call Augie out, however, as Byrnes huge follow through hits Soto twice on the shoulder. That's interference, and Soto gets an caught stealing, unassisted.

Update: Derrek Lee makes the DBacks pay even more for the mistake as he homers in the bottom of the eighth to extend the lead to 3-1.

Nick Piecoro takes an indepth look at how the Diamondbacks reach a decision on trying to steal a base:

With their cheap, controllable talent, teeming farm system and disciplined hitters, the Diamondbacks are a next-generation type team, and their approach to base stealing follows the same script.

Players recite the need to have at least a 75 percent success rate, and their extreme selectiveness of when to run seems to have an almost scientific feel.

"We want the reward to outweigh the risk," Gibson said.

The risk side of the equation is cluttered with factors, including the time it takes a pitcher to deliver a pitch, the catcher's arm strength, a pitcher's move to first, the count, the situation, a runner's technique and confidence factor, and everything in between.

They time pitchers to the plate and catchers to second base. They study pickoff moves and pitch selection tendencies. They stolen 86 bases with just 16 caught stealing since the 2007 All-Star break, a 84.6% success rate. Only the Phillies at 87 steals and 13 caught stealings are better.

YanksFan SoxFan notes the Red Sox are doing everything well on offense this season, including running the bases:

The Red Sox are tied with the league lead with a +22 stolen base differential and lead in stolen base percentage. Meanwhile, the Sox already lead the league in batting, on-base percentage and total bases. So the Sox are not only reaching base more than anyone else, they're taking extra bases better than anyone else, as well.

This is due mostly to three players. Ellsbury, Crisp and Pedroia are yet to be caught. The players who can steal run a lot, the players who can't don't, and they still have to figure out what to do with Lugo. That's exactly how a team should use their running game.

Carlos Gomez received a double whammy last night:

Gomez is starting to look like a catalyst at leadoff. He reached base his three times and thereby generated three of the Twins' first four runs. Then Minnesota scored seven runs off the bullpen over its final two at-bats for an 11-1 win.

The third run Gomez contributed to came in the fifth, which he opened with a single off right-hander Armando Galarraga. A moment later, Gomez took off on a steal attempt, and he slid head-first into second.

As he was sliding, catcher Ivan Rodriguez's throw hit him on the back of the helmet. And Gomez's head hit the knee of second baseman of Placido Polanco.

Having absorbed two blows to the head, Gomez lay motionless, face down at second base, for several minutes.

Then he got up and walked slowly to a nearby cart that took him off the field.

The Twins soon announced that Gomez hadn't lost consciousness and that team doctors had examined him in the clubhouse and determined he was OK. The club said there were no plans for him to be taken anywhere for further tests.

That's why you wear a helmet running the bases. Although he's 13 for 14 stealing bases, Gomez's OBA is just .299. He's only draw three walks; one in March, one in April, and one in May. The May walk occurred Friday night, so don't expect another for a while. :-) He'll need to improve his OBA if he's going to stick around as a leadoff hitter.

The Brewers had some problems on the base paths today:

But the hitters and base-runners spent so much time shooting themselves in their collective feet that podiatrists were needed more than coaches. The result was a disheartening 3-1 loss.

"We just couldn't get a run across when we needed it," said manager Ned Yost, whose club has put together a 13-9 record despite not coming close to firing on all cylinders.

Phillies left-hander Jamie Moyer, the oldest player in the major leagues at 45, had a lot to do with the Brewers' offensive frustrations. When he wasn't tantalizing hitters with off-speed pitches that barely registered on the radar guns, he was picking off overeager base-runners.

"He comes up (in his delivery) and reads (the base-runner) the whole time," said Bill Hall, one of two runners picked off first by breaking too soon.

"We tried to wait as long as we could. Even after we shut down the running game, we still had guys on base."

You know it's going to be a tough day when the first three hitters in the bottom of the fourth go double, single, walk, yet you come up empty. Corey Hart started it by doubling past leftfielder Pat Burrell but getting thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple.

Base stealers are just two for six against Moyer this season, and along with four GDPs, Moyer removed eight base runners this season. That helps lower his actual opposition OBA.

Wicked Good Sports points out that Jacoby Ellsbury is in pursuit of a Tim Raines record:

Jacoby Ellsbury is quickly (and quietly) approaching a Major League Baseball record held by future Hall of Famer Tim Raines. At the start of his career (1979-1981), Raines was successful on his first 27 steal attempts, the longest such streak at the start of a player's career, according to stats provided by Sean Forman and the geniuses at Baseball-Reference.com. Ellsbury, who swiped 9 bases without being caught last season, hasn't been caught in 8 attempts this year (including 6 in the last week), putting him at 17 straight to start his career. I know, I know, ladies love the long ball, but just imagine the excitement and anticipation as Ellsbury gets closer to the record. Every time he gets on base, the stadium -- Fenway, at least -- will buzz with excitement.

A streak like this is different from any other. Ellsbury, right now, is running around like a virgin on prom night. Once he's caught, that's that: He's lost his virginity and there's no regaining it in respect to this record.

Ellsbury was one for five tonight but did not steal a base as the Red Sox fell to the Angels 6-4. A 100% stolen base percentage is something even a sabermetrician can love.

At The Book Blog, Tangotiger presents his quick calculation for determining the break even point for stealing bases.

Jimmy Rollins helped set up the winning run for the Phillies yesterday by going from first to third on a sacrifice.

"I told him, 'I don't know if I've seen that more than five times,' " said Geoff Jenkins, who went 3 for 5 with one RBI. "You have to have the speed first. You have to have instincts. And you have to have guts. If you get thrown out at third there, you're the goat. You have to know you can make it."

No one covered third for the Nationals, as the catcher Flores stopped running halfway down the line. Bobby Abreu did the same thing on a ground out by Giambi. The shift was on, no one covered third, and Abreu didn't stop rounding second. The Yankees left him on base, but it's good to see players watching for these situations and taking advantage of the misplays.

The number of stolen bases in the majors increased over the last two years. My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the reasons why, and why both sabermetricians and lovers of the running game should be happy.

Bob Geren is trying to improve the Athletics base running skills, but so far it's not working:

Oakland's manager was impressed by Carlos Gonzalez's strike from center that cut down Jeff Baisley at third, but at the same time, Geren didn't like the baserunning, either at that point or overall. He has been emphasizing baserunning this spring, and there were several gaffes in that area at Papago Park.

"I'm not happy with that at all," Geren said. "It was awful, actually. It wasn't for lack of aggressiveness, but there were too many mistakes."

This is the story of the Athletics throughout this decade. This is the team that lost two LDS series due to poor base running. This seems like an organizational problem. Do the A's pay attention to this in the minor leagues like they do the ability to take a pitch out of the strike zone? It's supposed to be about process, and base running, like taking a ball or throwing a strike, is a process.

Ross Roley at Baseball Analysts discovers that base runners are much too conservative in trying to advance an extra base based on the break even probabilities of doing so. They need a nearly 100% probability to advance, when a much lower probability yields a higher run potential.

For as long as I can remember, baseball announcers were always warning fans that it's a mortal sin for ballplayers to make the first or third out at 3rd base. The data above tests that claim and supports half of the general tenet. With two outs, the highest break-even mark is at 92% when a runner tries for 3rd on a single. Similarly, the first graph showed us that runners trying to advance to 3rd on a flyball caught for the second out have break-even rates of 97% with a runner on 2nd and 92% with runners on 1st and 2nd. So it's clear that making the final out at 3rd with two outs is not recommended. However, with nobody out, the story is different. Runners trying to advance to 3rd have a break even rate of 81%, but runners trying to score have break-even rates of 91% or 87% depending on the situation. So it appears that the greater sin is getting thrown out at home with nobody out, not at 3rd.

The whole article is well worth the read.

Ross Roley at Baseball Analysts discovers that base runners are much too conservative in trying to advance an extra base based on the break even probabilities of doing so. They need a nearly 100% probability to advance, when a much lower probability yields a higher run potential.

For as long as I can remember, baseball announcers were always warning fans that it's a mortal sin for ballplayers to make the first or third out at 3rd base. The data above tests that claim and supports half of the general tenet. With two outs, the highest break-even mark is at 92% when a runner tries for 3rd on a single. Similarly, the first graph showed us that runners trying to advance to 3rd on a flyball caught for the second out have break-even rates of 97% with a runner on 2nd and 92% with runners on 1st and 2nd. So it's clear that making the final out at 3rd with two outs is not recommended. However, with nobody out, the story is different. Runners trying to advance to 3rd have a break even rate of 81%, but runners trying to score have break-even rates of 91% or 87% depending on the situation. So it appears that the greater sin is getting thrown out at home with nobody out, not at 3rd.

The whole article is well worth the read.

Gary Matthews makes a fantastic pop up slide to avoid a tag on a single he was trying to stretch into a double. Ichiro slides on a liner to center, and the ball goes just behind him. Matthews goes for second, but Suzuki gets the ball and fires it to second. Lopez is waiting for Gary to slide into the tag, but Matthews, puts on the brakes and pops up. Lopez sweeps, misses, giving Gary just enough time to step on the bag. A real close slow motion replay makes it look like Lopez got him on the shirt a fraction of a second before the foot hit the bag, but it was very close. Nice work by Matthews turning a lemon into lemonade. It's 3-0 Angels in the top of the fourth.

Update: Mathis squeezes home the fourth run of the game for LAnaheim.

The Number Guy points out that the stolen base success rate this season is the highest of all time:

Overall, major-league teams this year have been successful on 74.6% of stolen-base attempts. That's the highest rate in the 87 years since the American League began recording caught-stealing stats (the National League followed suit in 1951). Dan Fox, a writer for the baseball-research outfit Baseball Prospectus, crunched the historical numbers for me and said the record-setting pace is evidence of "an ever-increasing level of play" in the majors, a trend he outlined in an article this January. (The success rate last year was 71.4%.) Mr. Fox also cited several other possible explanations, including that baserunners' speed is improving more quickly than catchers' throwing ability; and decreasing reliance on hit-and-run plays, which often result in failed steal attempts.

The successful thievery may also reflect better managing. Baseball's number-crunchers have long argued that the stolen base is a weapon that tends to backfire in the hands of those who misuse it, because the cost of an out generally far outweighs the increased benefit of reaching second base. (Though there are exceptions, such as in the late innings of close games -- I'm thinking of a certain famous 2004 postseason steal.) But in general, as Baseball Prospectus writer Joe Sheehan wrote in 2004, "If you're stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you're better off never going at all."

Stolen base attempts are lowest they've been since the early 1970s, after a fairly steady decline since the height of attempts in 1987. In that season, major league teams average 197 attempts. In 2006, that average was 129, and in 2007 the pace should come close to that. Teams are more selective in their attempts, so it's not surprising that they do a better job of grabbing a base. If we ever see offense go back to the pre-1993 level, we'll see attempts rise up again, and the SB% fall. Still, it's nice to see sabermetric research adopted into the game.

Jose Reyes tied his career high last night of 64 stolen bases. It looks like he'll leave that number in the dust over the rest of the season.

Devon Young sends along this bit of research to put Jose's base running season into context:

I thought you'd like this reference list I made for myself. This list shows everyone who had 65 or more steals at the end of August...covering between 1957-2006.

65 Steals by the end of August, 1957-2006

Season	Runner	Steals through Aug. 31
1992	Marquis Grissom	66
1991	Otis Nixon	67
1990	Vince Coleman	76
1988	Rickey Henderson	74
	Vince Coleman	69
1987	Vince Coleman	90
1986	Vince Coleman	88
	Rickey Henderson	74
	Eric Davis	65
1985	Vince Coleman	95
1983	Rickey Henderson	92
1982	Rickey Henderson	123
1981	Tim Raines*	71
1980	Ron LeFlore	86
	Omar Moreno	79
	Rickey Henderson	66
1979	Ron LeFlore	66
	Willie Wilson	65
1974	Lou Brock	94
1965	Maury Wills	83
1962	Maury Wills	73

*(in only 88 games)

Not a very long list, and most of that was done by only a few men (11) and not since 15 years ago. It's an even shorter list if you only count 70 or more (7), and nobody's done that since 17 years ago. So Reyes is already in some exclusive company even before September starts. I think Reyes wants to end August at 70+.

Between 1920 and 1957, steals were much rarer and in some season a guy with 20 steals could lead the league. So there's really nobody in those years who had 65 by the end of August. I didn't check the deadball era stats, but I imagine it would be similar to the 1980's.

The increase in offense over the last 15 years made the steal a less valuable strategy. Why risk being thrown out if the next batter is somewhat likely to get a long hit? But Reyes keeps his caught stealing very low, so for the Mets this strategy adds to their run production and diversifies their offense.

The Tigers and Twins are tied at three in the bottom of the ninth. Morneau was at third when Seay throws a pitch that Rabelo can't handle. It goes to the backstop but bounces back to the catcher. Morneau is halfway between third and home, and starts back to the base. The throw to third hits him in the shoulder and bounds to the outfield, and Justin looks like he scores the winning run.

But the ump called interference. Morneau turned his shoulder to deflect the ball, and the ump caught him. He's out, and the game goes to extra innings.

Correction: Sorry, that happened in the eighth, not the ninth. The game, however, is going to extra innings.

Hideki Matsui gave a nice clinic on base running in the top of the eighth against Tampa Bay. With Alex Rodriguez on second and none out, Matsui picked up his second single of the day, a hard line drive to right. A-Rod could only go to third on the hit. With one out, Cano launched a ball to the warning track in left that scored Alex to tie the game, but Hideki tagged up and moved to second as the throw was off line. He then came around on a Phillips single as he got a great jump. The throw was cut off near home, allowing Phillips to go to second. After two walks, he scores on an infield hit and the Yankees take a 7-5 lead.

Lastings Milledge scores from first base on a single in the bottom of the fifth. Gotay lined to center, Freel dived for the ball, but didn't come up with the catch. The ball got behind him and he made a weak throw to the plate. The ball was there in time, however, but Milledge made a great slide behind the catcher and reached back to get the plate with his hand. If he had slid straight in, the sweep tag by Ross likely would have had him.

By the way, the hitting coach for the Mets has not been named yet. Rickey is definitely on the staff, but Howard Johnson may get the hitting job.

Vin Scully made a good point tonight. With Chris Young on the mound, the Dodgers are running wild. They've stolen four bases tonight, and on the season base stealers are 24 for 24 with Young on the mound. But has it made a difference? Yes, the Dodgers scored two runs, both after steals. But Young has only allowed three hits, and the steals did not produce big innings. But a Kouzmanoff three-run homer has the Padres up 5-2.

Young is doing nothing to shut down the running game, but his ERA after three innings today is 2.21. The opposition is hitting just .193 against him. There's no real reason for Young to care about the running game. If the people behind the base stealers don't get hits, there's little chance of the them scoring. It's interesting that runners are doing so well against Young, but it's more interesting that it doesn't seem to matter.

The Giants are running all over Mike Mussina and Wil Nieves today. They've stolen five bases in five attempts, including number five by Ryan Klesko. Ryan isn't exactly known for his speed. Someone figured out Mussina's motion, and every one in the lineup is running as Bonds also has a steal against Mike and Wil today. The Giants lead 3-0.

Matt Diaz dents the Green Monster near the 310 sign, but ends up getting thrown out at second by Manny Ramirez. Manny side-armed a perfect strike to the base, the tag beating Diaz by a toe (he might have been safe). That's Manny's second assist of the year. The Red Sox lead Atlanta 3-0 in the top of the third on home runs by Lugo and Youkilis.

I thought this was unusual. In the bottom of the first:

Crisp singled to left. D.Ortiz grounded out, shortstop C.Guillen to first baseman Casey, Crisp to third. M.Ramirez singled to center, Crisp scored.

Going to third on a ground out is pretty good. I'd like to assume Crisp was running on the pitch and never stopped, but I don't want to make an ass of u and me. Did anyone see the play?

Update: The first comment explains what happened. The shift was on, and once Crisp avoided the out at second, no one was covering third. The weakness of the overshift.

Shane Victorino is caught off first base, but is awarded second when he runs into Omar Vizquel. However, Victorino intentionally runs into Vizquel on the infield grass, when Omar was out of the way. I'll look up the rule, but Shane got away with one here.

Update: Obstruction isn't well defined here:

OBSTRUCTION is the act of a fielder who, while not in possession of the ball and not in the act of fielding the ball, impedes the progress of any runner. Rule 2.00 (Obstruction) Comment: If a fielder is about to receive a thrown ball and if the ball is in flight directly toward and near enough to the fielder so he must occupy his position to receive the ball he may be considered "in the act of fielding a ball." It is entirely up to the judgment of the umpire as to whether a fielder is in the act of fielding a ball. After a fielder has made an attempt to field a ball and missed, he can no longer be in the "act of fielding" the ball. For example: If an infielder dives at a ground ball and the ball passes him and he continues to lie on the ground and delays the progress of the runner, he very likely has obstructed the runner.

Given this definition, Vizquel did obstruct.

Update: Joe Morgan saying baserunners establish their own baseline is wrong:

7.08 Any runner is out when -- (a) (1) He runs more than three feet away from his baseline to avoid being tagged unless his action is to avoid interference with a fielder fielding a batted ball. A runner's baseline is established when the tag attempt occurs and is a straight line from the runner to the base he is attempting to reach safely; or (2) after touching first base, he leaves the baseline, obviously abandoning his effort to touch the next base;

Victorino should have been out. That cost the Giants a run.

Update: Okay, Morgan wasn't wrong. I read the rule from an old rule book, then just copied from the web site without re-reading. In my 1988 rule book:

He runs more than three feet away from a direct line between the bases to avoid being tagged.

Sorry I missed that.

Ronny Cedeno, in the bottom of the ninth with one out, attempts to steal second base. The pitch is ball four but the throw goes through to Eckstein. Cedeno touches the base, comes off, and Eckstein tags him. After discussion by the umps, Cedeno is called out. The Cardinals are one out away from a 2-1 win, rather than looking at the tying run in scoring position with one out.

Update: The next pitch is popped up to Eckstein, and the Cardinals win.

Update: I only saw the beginning and end of the game, but 6-4-2 saw the triple play that wasn't.

The Chronicle of the Lads questions the strategy involving Erick Aybar stealing.

Nick of Nick and Nick's Twins Blog attended the game in Minneapolis last night and likes the way Minnesota is running the bases:

Aggressiveness on the basepaths is something that I have been preaching for the Twins. They have a lot of singles hitters, but most of those guys have great speed and can move around the bases in many different ways. This is something the Twins should take advantage of. Being aggressive on the bases can hurt you, like it did on Monday night with Justin Morneau being thrown out twice trying to advance, but it can also be a huge help, and it was probably the biggest reason the Twins won last night's game.

When you watch spring training games, it's sometimes difficult to know what parts of the game a team is experimenting with that day. On Saturday, the Indians were practicing base running. The team swiped four bases, was caught twice and picked off once. But that was all part of the plan:

"We want to get a feel for their instincts on the bases," manager Eric Wedge said.

Instincts are a necessary, if less tangible, complement to pure speed. In recent seasons, the Indians have been short on each.

So the Indians have been working on training their runners, and now they're using game situations to see who's learned the lessons, and for the players to learn when they can and can't run. That's why there's spring training; it's a chance to fix weaknesses.

U.S.S. Mariner is a bit hard on Mike Hargrove in this post. The Mariners manager is expressing a good sabermetric take on stealing bases, which I translate as run aggressively when you judge there to be a high probability of making the base. I agree with comment #6, Hargrove isn't a great manager, but this isn't an example of that.

Alfonso Soriano is one stolen base away from becoming a 40-40 player (that's home runs and stolen bases). Unfortunately, he seems to be stuck on 39. For the third game in a row, Alfonso attempted to get number 40, but was thrown out. He's gone from a good 75% success rate to a little over break even at 70.9%. Maybe the pressure's too much for him. :-)

In the bottom of the first inning in today's Padres/Mets game, New York stole three bases and did not score a run. This underscores one of the offensive shortcomings of the stolen base. It's seldom valuable in isolation. Without a offensive help from following batters, stolen bases seldom score runs. It's another reason sabermetricians tend to value steals less than fans and the media, and another reason why some great pitchers don't care about base runners and concentrate on getting the batter out. If you get the batters, the thiefs tend to be stranded.

Update: The Mets score 2 in the bottom of the second. They didn't get a stolen base, but a bases clearing triple by Jose Reyes. That's 14 three-baggers for the shortstop.

Update: Reyes scores on a sac fly to make the score 3-2 Mets. Power once again is a much better way to move base runners and set up scoring.

The Damon and Abreu each stole a base on Freddy Garcia in the first inning. They each had the base stolen before the ball left Garcia's hand. Opponents are now 28 for 29 stealing against Freddy. He just doesn't give the catcher a chance to throw out a runner. The rest of the staff has allowed 52 steals in 75 attempts.

Update: Cano is back in the lineup and makes a great relay throw to nail Scott Podsednik trying to reach third on the first White Sox hit of the game. The replay showed the play was extremely close, but it looked like A-Rod got the tag on the elbow just before the fingers reached the bag. Abrue get the outfield assist.

The Mets stole three bases today as they topped the Cubs 6-3. Over the last three seasons (2004-2006), the Mets are 353 for 437 stealing, an 80.8 percentage, the best in the majors. The impressive thing is the 353 stolen base total is second in the majors. The combine a high number of steals with an excellent stolen base percentage. If you're going to be a running team, that's just the way to do it.

Barry Bonds stole a base and scored the go-ahead run last night for the Giants.

Before the A's comeback, the talk was about Bonds' legs, not his bat. At 41 and running on two ravaged knees, he might be the last person in baseball you'd expect to steal a base. If you've seen him in person or watched highlights showing him hobbling around the bases on home runs, you'd hardly believe what transpired in the eighth inning Friday night.

He actually stole second base off A's reliever Chad Gaudin, then scored on Pedro Feliz's broken bat single to center. Thing is, Bonds ran reasonably well on both instances, helping his team take a 3-2 lead.

It was Bonds' first steal since Aug. 16, 2004 -- his 507th overall. Bonds began the rally in his customary fashion, with a walk.

I just watched the late BBTN but they didn't have the highlight. Did anyone see it? It's amazing what medical science can do in rebuilding the body.

Unfortunately for the Giants, they have Armando Benitez and poor outfield positioning:

After Antonio Perez struck out looking to begin the ninth, Jason Kendall and Bobby Kielty hit back-to-back singles. Kendall scored on Mark Kotsay's sacrifice fly to center. The Giants, surprisingly, left a huge gap for Nick Swisher in right-center field, and that's where he ripped a Benitez pitch for a triple, scoring the winning run.

Closer Huston Street, unlike his counterpart, had no trouble putting away the Giants.

Update: Bonds was actually picked off on the steal. Bonds got a good jump, but Gaudin threw to first, and Johnson threw high and wide to second, allowing Barry to reach the base. I'm guessing it was a hit and run that went bad. Barry wasn't exactly speeding to second.

Manny Ramirez on a 3-2 count breaks his bat and lines a soft single to Damon in center. For some reason, he tried to stretch it into a double, and Damon throws him out by so much that Cano has to wait for Ramirez to get to second. Sometimes, Manny hustles at the wrong time.

Prince Fielder stole the second base of his season and career tonight, matching his father's career total. Cecil did not steal a base until 1996, 11 years into his career. The senior Fielder swiped both that season. Prince needs one more for the family record.

The big first baseman also went 3 for 3, raising his average to .373 with a .427 OBA.

The Boston Herald discusses Coco Crisp and base stealing today. I like what I'm hearing from Francona on this subject:

That doesn’t mean, however, that Crisp will be allowed to recklessly run wild. He has been caught on 35 percent of his steal attempts in the majors (29-of-83), but he cut that down to 28.5 percent (6-of-21) last year. Johnny Damon, meanwhile, went 18-for-19 on the basepaths for the Sox last year. “If (Crisp) wants to take off every time, he could get 30 easily, but we don’t want him to go 30-for-60,” Francona said.

The Red Sox didn't steal much last year, but they stole well. Their 79% success rate was second in the AL. With Francona picking the spots, I suspect Crisp's percentage will be very high this season.

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Rockies coach Dave Collins challenged Brad Hawpe to get faster over the winter, and Brad did just that:

Hawpe isn't about to make any Olympic bids, but after a winter of regular work with Texas Christian University track coach James Thomas, Hawpe says he reduced his time from home to first base by "three-tenths of a second to four- tenths" of a second.

More important, said Hawpe, he strengthened his left leg, which he believed was imperative after missing seven weeks because of a strained left hamstring in the second half last season.

According to The Bill James Handbook 2006, Hawpe only went first to third one time in eleven opportunites last year. He was not thrown out on base, but his slowness kept his attempts down. We'll have to watch to see if this improves this year.

Damon once again was on second for Ortiz, but this time David bounces back to the pitcher. Wang looks Johnny back to second, then throws out Ortiz. Damon, for some reason, decides to head for third and is put out in a run down. Why he tried that:

1. With two out.
2. With Manny coming up.
3. After he retreated to second.

Is beyond me.

Update: Jerry Remy makes a good point. On the replay, it looks like Damon thought the pitcher threw to second. Wang made a motion like that, but threw to first.

The White Sox third base coach just sent A.J. Pierzynski on a single to left. Monroe had the ball as A.J. hit third, so why Cora was sending him is beyond me. It was fun, however, watching A.J. trying to run hard as the throw beat him by a mile.

They're starting the bottom of the ninth. The score is 4-2 Chicago, and they're three outs away from the division title.

Update: Inge leads off with a single against Jenks.

Update: Wilson hits a soft roller to Crede. Joe was looking for the double play and took his eye off the ball, dropping it. Tigers have the tying runs at 1st and 2nd with no one out.

Update: Dmitri Young is pinch hitting for Infante. He strikes out swinging, and didn't look very good doing it. Jenks had him totally fooled on two separate pitches.

Update: Granderson is caught looking on a beautiful curve ball on the outside corner. It looks like Granderson was expecting a waste pitch and it hit the corner.

Trailing 1-0, the Padres set themselves up to possibly take the lead. They put men on 2nd and 3rd with one out. Dave Roberts hit a shot to Johnson at first who held the runner at third and stepped on the bag for the second out. However, Olivo was at second and started for third. Johnson threw to second and got the catcher in an easy run down to end the inning.

Update: Olivo redeems himself in the ninth. Tied at one, Olivo singles leading off the inning and scores the winning run two batters later on a sacrifice + error. (It seems to me I've seen a lot of those lately.) The Padres win, and the Nationals lose another game in the Wild Card standings. Washington's post-season hopes are hanging by a thread.

Curtis Granderson hit a ball off the wall in center field in Anaheim and never stopped running. I-Rod and Carlos Pena score easily, and there's not even a play on Curtis as he scores easily on the inside the park home run. That gives the Tigers a 4-2 lead.

Vlad leads off the bottm of the 4th with his second homer of the game. He didn't need to run fast on that one. It's 4-3 Tigers in the bottom of the fourth, the Angels needing a win to keep from dropping into a tie for first place in the AL West.

It looks like Gunderson stole a home run from Molina. It was a great catch against the wall. In the space of a few batters he gave the Tigers the lead and helped them keep it.

Steve Bauman writes with a very unusual play from last night's Red Sox game:

I was surprised you didn't "muse" over the strange play in last night's Red Sox/Blue Jays game.

If you didn't see it, Tony Graffanino hit a home run with Gabe Kapler on at first. Kapler was running full-bore, as it was a line drive and not a sure thing, but as he hit second base, he did a full-blown face plant into the turf. It turned out that he'd ruptured his Achilles' tendon, and he couldn't continue around the bases. (Obviously. Ouch.)

So Graffanino stays at second, and they pinch-run for Kapler in mid-play with Alejandro Machado, who finishes rounding the bases (and gets his first-ever run scored) with Graffanino following. A mid-play substitution, who knew?

The rule apparently states you can do this if the player would have been awarded that base, or bases. Obviously, if Graffanino's ball hadn't gone out, they could have just tagged Kapler out.

Home runs are special cases. For example, if someone hits a game winning home run (out of the field of play) but can't round the bases due to fans mobbing the field, the run still counts. In looking at the play by play for the game, it looks like the substitution happens before the homer. There should be a note inserted there.

Despite making two bad baserunning plays last night, Vlad Guerrero beat the White Sox with his baserunning in the 12th inning last night. He took his time getting to second base on a double, thinking the ball was going over the fence. Then Bengie Molina bunts, and Vlad comes roaring around third trying to score on the out. The throw from Iguchi was in time, but up the line, and Vlad made a great slide to avoid the tag and score.

Mike Scioscia was concerned about process:

Said Mike Scioscia: "It's a low-percentage play. Vladdy knows he shouldn't have been watching that ball. The ball wasn't carrying to left-center. We'll clean that up and, hopefully, not see it again. He's got to run. I already talked to him."

Never one to mince words, Angels starter Jarrod Washburn said of Guerrero, "He's got a golden horseshoe somewhere. ... It does seem like things work out for him. When you're a great player, they tend to."

It's said that the good teams get the lucky breaks. Looks like that goes for players, too.

Shea Hillenbrand just stole home in the Yankees-Blue Jays game to give Toronto an insurance run as they now lead 5-3. The last time Hillenbrand was caught stealing was in 2002. Since then, he's 7 for 7 stealing.

Randy Johnson has given up eight hits and five runs through three innings. Johnson and Mussina keep having starts like this. As long as that goes on, it's going to be difficult for the Yankees to put together a streak to put them back in control of the wild card or the division. I believe the Yankees are a .530 to .540 team, and that's probably not going to put them in the playoffs.

In general, aggressive baserunning is a good thing. It generates excitement and puts pressure on a defense. But the Red Sox were just too aggressive in the top of the 6th tonight. The Sox had Randy Johnson on the ropes, getting five straight hits off the lefty but only 1 run. On the fourth hit, Bellhorn tried to score even though Womack had the ball in left before Mark reached third. The play wasn't close. Then Ortiz hit one up the middle that Cano bobbled. It went as a hit, but Damon tried to take an extra base and score on the bobble. Cano fired a strike to the plate and got Damon easily.

Instead of having a big inning, they score just one, and the Yankees hit two homers in the bottom of the inning to score five. Randy Johnson, despite a very poor outing, is in line for the win.

Bobby Kielty just stole a run for the Athletics. He was on third when a bouncer was hit back to Arroyo. Arroyo at Kielty to stop him, then threw to first. Kielty breaks at that point. Millar throws home, but not in time. Arroyo didn't throw the ball to first as hard as he should have (he didn't soft toss it, just didn't zing it). On top of it all, Millar came off the bag early, and Melhuse was safe. The A's lead 2-1 in the top of the 7th.

A big contrast to the 2003 playoffs.

To follow up on this morning's post, as of 8:15 there have been four stolen bases today with no caught stealing.

Basestealers are having a very good year so far. They have the 2nd best SB% since 1974.

Season	Games	SB	Attempts	SBPct	SB/G
1996	2267	3240	4583	70.696	1.429
2005	125	141	200	70.500	1.128
2004	2428	2589	3695	70.068	1.066
1987	2105	3585	5114	70.102	1.703
1995	2017	2932	4189	69.993	1.454

The last two season runners are stealing less but stealing better. Sabermetrics makes another inroad.

Nice heads up base running by Luis Castillo. He lays down a bunt to try to get a hit, and when the ball is throw down the right field line, Luis doesn't slow down at all. He heads for second with the intention of going to third. By the time Abreu gets to the ball and makes the throw, Castillo is safe. He then scores on a sacrifice fly. It's a nice example of knowing where the ball is and if you can take that extra base.

Vin Scully just had a great line. Nakamura had doubled, lining a shot down the third base line. Phillips follows with a single in left that Feliz overruns, with Phillips winding up at second and Nakamura scoring. To Vin:

Watching Nakamura score from second and Phillips go from home to second is like watching the game in slow motion, but they got themselves around.

The Giants lead 5-3 after two.

The San Francisco announcers were talking strategy with Durham on first. It was their opinion that you have to run on Lowe, since he was poor last year vs. base stealers. Two seconds later, Durham gets a bad jump and is out by a mile. Of course, it's followed by a Vizquel double and a Snow walk.

Michael T donated $50 and dedicates this post to Peace (through superior firepower and a willingness to use it).

Ed Price of the Newark Star-Ledger looks at how Tony Womack will add speed to the Yankees lineup this season. Reading the article, I was afraid the Yankees were going to fall into the speed trap and leadoff with Womack:

Womack, 35, is all about speed. He led the National League in stolen bases three consecutive years, 1997-99 (two seasons with the Pirates, one with the Diamondbacks, when he had a career-high 72), and last season had 26 steals in 31 tries for the Cardinals.

"He's going to help us a lot," center fielder Bernie Williams said. "With the kind of lineup that we have, I think having a guy of his caliber at the top of the lineup is a great asset -- high on-base percentage, always in scoring position.

"If he gets on base a lot, he's going to score a lot of runs."

Torre and Price both see that it might not be a good idea.

Womack led off in yesterday's intrasquad game at Legends Field, but Torre has yet to commit to putting Womack atop the lineup for the regular season. How the batting order shakes out depends, in part, on Jason Giambi's condition through the spring.

And because he does not walk often, Womack doesn't have the on-base percentage managers like in a leadoff man. His .349 last year was a career high. Before that, he had a .315 lifetime mark.

The other obvious option is to bat Womack ninth, which is sort of a second leadoff spot in the American League.

"In this league, it doesn't matter," Torre said.

Once again, it's nice to see OBA working into a sports report about a leadoff man.

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I just watched the bottom of the first of the Rockies at Diamondbacks. Joe Kennedy walked two, Terrero and Hillenbrand, and they were off and running. Terrero stole 2nd on a pickoff attempt, and later took third. Hillenbrand, after his walk, with Terrero at 3rd stole 2nd. All that running did no good, however, as the DBacks could not muster a hit. Great pitchers like Jim Palmer and Dwight Gooden didn't care about base stealers. As long as they got the ensuing batters out, those runners were not likely to score.

Update: The Rockies use the Earl Weaver single, walk, three-run homer to take a 3-0 lead in the top of the 2nd. The Rockies Luis Gonzalez delivers the blow off Fossum.

Lew Ford drove in the first (and only run so far) for the Minnesota Twins tonight. Lew, in my opinion, has been the offensive MVP of the Twins this year. He's gotten on base. He hits well and he draws walks. He has a little power, but working his way on is his forte.

But I also noticed what a good job Ford does stealing bases. He's swiped 18 of 19 this season to lead the AL in stolen base percentage. He was 2 for 2 last year, making him 20 of 21 for his career. That's the kind of base running even a sabermetrician can love. :-)

Given the baserunning blunders that have cost the A's a shot at the ALCS in 2001 and 2003, it was nice to see Marco Scutaro scoring from 2nd on a wild pitch.

A fun double play in Cleveland. With Broussard on 2nd and none out, Belliard hit a comebacker to the pitcher. Broussard had strayed too far from 2nd, and Garland had him dead to rights. Garland threw to the SS Valentin, who threw to the third baseman Crede, who ran Ben back to 2nd. As Broussard neared 2nd, Crede tossed back to Valentin who tagged the sliding Broussard. At the same time, Belliard comes into the picture sliding into 2nd from the 1st base side. Valentin just swept his glove to the other side of the bag and tagged Belliard. Two players both out sliding into 2nd.

Just saw something unusual in the Astros-Cubs game. Michael Barrett, with Ensberg at first called for the pitch out. Morgan started for 2nd, stopped when he saw the pitchout, and was hung out to dry. Barrett ran the ball at Ensberg until he committed one way or the other. By the time Ensberg started back to first Barrett was on his tail and tagged him out. Caught stealing, catcher unassisted.

Jack Wilson uses some aggressive baserunning to beat the Cardinals in the 9th. With one out, he lined a double down the left field line. As he was approaching 2nd, he noticed that no one was covering 2nd to take the throw. He didn't stop, and headed for third. Womack realized his mistake at the last minute and rushed to 2nd to grab the throw. Tony then made a bad throw to third and Wilson scored. A great pitching matchup between Suppan and Benson ends on an extremely poor defensive play by Tony Womack. Pirates win 2-1.

Correction: As the commentor points out, it was Pujols who made the bad throw. My first impression of the play was that Lankford missed the cutoff man, and that's what must have happened. I never see the cutoff man in the video, so Womack must have been in the outfield to take the throw. It was actually a good play by Pujols to hustle to cover second when the bad throw came in from Lankford. Still a bad defensive play, but it looks like Lankford made the main mistake in missing the cutoff man, and Pujols compounded the error by throwing the ball away. Here's the story from St. Louis, the best description of the play I can find. Having looked at the play again on Tivo, it seems pretty clear that someone missed an assignment covering 2nd.

With only two hits against the Angels in a nothing-nothing game, the Yankees have had two baserunners caught stealing tonight. They are now 13 for 24 stealing this year, a terrible percentage. If they are going to keep running like that, they would be better off not running at all.

Mark Redmond just did a nice bit of base running. He was on second after a throwing error, and Alex Gonzalez grounds to third near the bag. As soon as Bell releases the ball to first, Redmond takes off to third and beats the return throw from Thome. He's now at third with one out, in a position to score on a sac fly.

Update: Dontrelle Willis strikes out to end his hit streak, but Juan Pierre gets his second hit of the night to give the Marlins an unearned run and a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 2nd.

Palmeiro delivers his first hit of the year, a soft single to left, but Mora is gunned down easily trying for third by Ramirez. Although Pedro gave up two hits in that inning, neither ball was hit very well. More importantly, Pedro didn't throw many pitches, (13, nine for strikes).

Ichiro just beat out a roller in the hole. Eckstein had to range to get to the ball, but Suzuki beat the throw by a country mile.

Kevin Millar singles to center, and Chris Singleton has trouble fielding the ball. It hits Singelton and bounds away, but when Millar tries to stretch it to a double, he's thrown out. The replay showed Millar was taking his time going to first until he saw the bobble, then turned on the speed. If he had been running hard the entire time, he might have made it.

Bleacher Dave has the facts on the Durazo steal:

Durazo's "sreal" came on a failed hit and run. Ramon Heranandez waved at a nasty slider for strike 3 and I said to my girlfriend, "strike 'em out, throw 'em out." Fortunately for the A's, the throw tailed to the LF side of the bag, and Durazo just got in. A throw to the bag would have nailed him. How sweet it 'tis!

A reader from NY writes:

You might want to say something about the Yankee baserunning tonight. It's only the 4th inning and Jorge Posada has been thrown out foolishly trying to stretch a double, Williams didn't score from third on a weak bouncer, Nick Johson and Soriano have been caught in rundowns and Soriano was thrown out on an ill-advised steal of third with Johnson hitting with a 2-0 count.

I didn't see much of this, but I saw the end of the Johnson run down, and didn't think it was his fault, and he did stay in it long enough for Jeter to reach second. Soriano is fast, but he's never impressed me with his intelligence on the basepaths.

John McDonald got Cleveland a run with a great slide on a steal attempt of third. The throw beat him, but he slid arms first, pulled his left arm away from the tag, and reached over and touched the base before Beltre could get the glove on him. (It was a double steal). Spencer then singled him in, but Bradley was thrown out at the plate. Indians lead 3-2 in the 7th.

Bob Howles sends me this gem:

Dusty Baker Stole 2nd base, 3rd base & home in the same inning - Playing for the Giants..

Damian Jackson pinch ran for Manny Ramirez in the top of the 12th after Ramirez singled. He then stole 2nd, and went to third on a deep fly ball. He's not at third with 1 out, giving the Red Sox a good chance to take the lead.

Update: Red Sox hitters are not able to deliver, going to the bottom of 12th still tied at 8.