The Red Sox returned to Fenway early this morning, no fans to greet them:

Most players quickly climbed into cars and drove away, preferring not to reflect any further on the disappointing finish.

Center fielder Coco Crisp did tell reporters that the team put up a good fight and almost pulled off a miracle finish, adding, "there's always next year."

They did put up a good fight. They pulled off an amazing comeback in game five, got a gutsy performance from Beckett and the bullpen in game six, and pitched well enough to win in game 7. They just ran into someone better in Matt Garza. Compared to the way the Cubs went out, the Red Sox played like champions. There's no shame in that.

Matt Garza picks up two of the Rays four wins and takes home the ALCS MVP award. That turned out to be a great trade for the Rays. It helped improve their defense, and Garza pitches them to the pennant. Congratulations to Matt on a great series.

Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays, 2008 American League Champions. There was no in between for them. The were awful for their first ten seasons in the majors, but found a way to turn everything around this year. Unlike the Yankees in 2004 and the Indians in 2007, the Rays didn't bend to the Red Sox, and found a way to win game seven.

Matt Garza pitched a great game, allowing just one run over seven innings for a 1.38 LCS ERA. He struck out and walked three. Maddon then managed the bullpen one batter at a time, working the lefty-righty matchups until he could get to David Price. They held the Red Sox to walks and singles, and a poor slide by Coco Crisp made up for Bartlett's error that started the inning.

Price struck out three of the five batters he faced, walking just one. He gets his first major league save after getting his first major league win in game two.

The Rays offense out hit the Red Sox 6-3, but also picked up three extra base hits to the Red Sox one. What a great story, what a great series. These last three games were a lot of fun to watch, and we can only hope the World Series between the Phillies and Rays will be as good.

Jason Bay leads off against David Price.

Update: I thought Bay swung at the 2-2 pitch. He swung as much as Drew did the previous inning. The count is now 3-2.

Update: Bay walks to bring up Kotsay. The tying run is now at the plate.

Update: Kotsay falls behind 0-2, then evens the count. Price catches him looking, however, at a pitch on the outside corner for Price's second K.

Update: Price is doing a good job getting ahead of hitters. He gets ahead of Varitek 1-2, then strikes him out swinging on a 2-2 pitch. One out to go!

Update: Lowrie pinch hits and grounds out to Iwamura unassisted as he goes for the force at second. The Rays win 3-1 and are going to the World Series!

Hideki Okajima comes out to pitch the eighth. He'll face Iwamura, Upton and Pena.

Update: The Rays go down 1-2-3. The Red Sox will face David Price in the top of the ninth, Boston's last chance to at least tie the game.

Matt Garza comes out for the eighth. I both surprised and happy the Rays are doing this. However, Maddon better have a short leash as Matt is facing the top of the Red Sox order.

Cora hits one right at Bartlett and it took a bad hop for an error. Leadoff man on here in the eighth.

Indeed, Maddon has a short leash as Garza comes out of the game. What a great performance in a must-win game. Nine strikeouts, two walks and two hits over seven innings of work, his only mistake a home run ball to Pedroia in the first.

Update: Dan Wheeler comes into the game, needing six outs for the save. Unless he can induce a double play, he'll face Crisp, Pedroia and Ortiz as the potential tying runs.

Update: Crisp singles to bring Pedroia to the plate with men on first and second.

Update: Pedroia flies out to left to bring up the legend, David Ortiz with a chance to grow that legend even more. That's all for Wheeler.

Update: Howell comes on to try to get Ortiz.

Update: Howell gets ahead of Ortiz 0-2. David takes a couple and fouls one off to even the count at 2-2. He fouls off another then grounds into a force, 4-6. That play was a little close for comfort. If they don't make it, the bases are loaded with one out.

Two down for Youkilis, and the tying run is at first instead of second. The Rays make another pitching change.

Update: The replay shows Crisp went to take out the shortstop instead of sliding for the bag. If he goes for the bag he's safe. Chad Bradford enters the game to pitch to Youkilis.

Update: Youkilis walks on a 3-2 count, bases loaded with two out. The Rays are not making this easy. Bradford leaves, and I believe David Price is coming in. Here's his chance to be the K-Rod of 2008. He'll face J.D. Drew.

Update: Price gets ahead of Drew 0-2. He wastes one outside. Drew checks his swing on pitch four, but gets called out anyway. Price's pitching in that at bat was worth the price of admission for Rays fans.

The good news for the Rays is that Boston will send up the bottom of the order in the ninth.

Willy Aybar goes deep leading off the bottom of the seventh, hitting a 3-2 pitch deep into the leftfield stands. The Rays lead 3-1.

The Rays are winning the extra-base hit contest 3-1 as well. Aybar has two of them, doubling and scoring earlier.

Update: That's it as the Rays take a 3-1 lead to the top of the eighth.

Garza comes out for the seventh. His high pitch total for the year is 116, set against the Red Sox in game 3 of the ALCS. Maddon does not make the Dusty Baker mistake. He has the bullpen in action.

Update: Youkilis pops out but Drew walks. That brings up Bay, who struck out twice so far.

Update: Bay lines a single into left to put men on first and second. Maddon goes out, and he may be making the Grady Little mistake. He talks to Garza and leaves him in the game to face Kotsay.

Update: Kotsay flies out fairly deep to right, allowing Drew to move up to third with two out.

Update: Varitek falls behind 1-2. He swings and misses at a ball in the dirt, and Navarro throws him out at first. The Rays are six outs away from the World Series.

If Tampa Bay ends up winning this game, do you give the series MVP to Garza or Upton?

With one out in the sixth, Pedroia sees about 12 pitches, drawing a walk. That's his third time on tonight. Ortiz is the only other batter to reach base against Garza.

Update: Ortiz works the count to 3-2, then strikes out swinging into a double play as Navarro catches Pedroia stealing. The Rays survive the sixth and still hold a 2-1 lead.

Update: Garza is at 100 pitches. Does he come out for the seventh?

Update: Lester retires the Rays in order in the bottom of the sixth.

The first third of the game belonged to the Red Sox. The second third belonged to the Rays. Who wins the final third likely wins the American League. Lester is at 88 pitches, so he should be good for at least another inning.

Willy Aybar doubles off the wall in the leftfield corner to start the Rays fifth.

Update: Navarro grounds one slowly into the shortstop hole. Aybar holds second, and Cora eats the ball for an infield hit. Two on and none out for Baldelli. It's rare illness vs. rare illness.

Update: Baldelli delivers a single through the shortstop hole, rolling slowly enough to give Aybar time to score from second. The Rays lead 2-1!

Update: Bartlett strikes out. Men on first and second, one down.

Update: Iwamura taps back to Lester, advancing both runners. The Red Sox are pitching to Upton, and he lines out softly to shortstop. The Rays lead 2-1 going to the sixth.

Matt Garza picks up another 1-2-3 inning, his third of the night. He strikes out Cora to end the inning, his seventh of the evening. The Red Sox and Rays remain tied at one halfway through the game.

Garza retires the Red Sox in order in the fourth, picking up his sixth K of the game. At this point I'm wondering if there will be another hit in the game. Both pitchers are throwing twice as many strikes as balls.

Update: There is as Iwamura leads off the bottom of the fourth with a single.

Update: Upton strikes out as he swings over a low pitch. One down.

Update: Pena grounds slowly to Pedroia. He takes a risk trying to get Iwamura at second, and throws to Youkilis for the out. Kevin was shifted over, and his time at first probably came in handy on that play. Two down, Pena at first for Longoria.

Update: Longoria lines a 2-2 pitch into the rightfield corner. Pena, with two outs, was running on contact and just scores as the throw was just up the third base line. The Rays tie the game at one and Longoria is at second for Crawford.

Update: Lester strikes out Crawford to end the fourth. Both pitcher own six strikeouts through four innings and the game is tied at one.

With two out in the top of the third, Garza hits Pedroia. Dustin steals second, but Ortiz strikes out. Garza has his strike out pitch working as he's down five via the K through three innings. Red Sox still lead 1-0.

Update: Lester strikes out two more as he stays perfect through three innings. In addition to his no hitter this year, Lester pitched an eight inning one hitter and a six inning two hitter.

Garza retires the Red Sox in order in the second, striking out two. Jason Varitek worked the count to 3-2 and fouled off a number of pitches before Garza got him looking with a nice curve ball. The Red Sox remain in the lead, 1-0 over the Rays.

Update: Lester remains perfect through two, picking up his second strikeout of the game. He also cuts down on his pitches throwing just 11 in the inning.

Jon Lester retired the Rays in order in the first, striking out Carlos Pena to end the inning. The Rays did make him work a bit as he threw 20 pitches, but 14 were strikes.

Game seven is about to get underway. With switch hitters, the Red Sox have six lefties in the lineup against Garza. Lefties have about the same BA and OBA against Matt, but they do hit for more power than righties. That may be somewhat balanced by Garza's ability to limit extra base hits in Tampa Bay.

Update: Crisp tries to bunt his way on, but Garza throws him out. Angel Hernandez takes over for the injured Derryl Cousins on the umpiring crew.

Pedroia hits a home run down the leftfield line for Boston's first run of the game. So much for Garza keeping the ball in the park and allowing less power to righties.

Update: Ortiz draws a walk but the Rays allow no more runs. They find themselves in a hole going to the bottom of the first, 1-0.

Looks like you can scalp tickets for face value in Tampa Bay for game 7.

We finally get a winner-take-all game in the 2008 post season as the Red Sox and Rays battle in game seven of the ALCS. Jon Lester faces Matt Garza at 8:07 PM EDT, and with luck we'll see the whole game tonight. The bill is a rematch of game three won by Garza and the Rays 9-1. Lester allowed five runs, four earned in 5 2/3 inning in that game. Despite that performance, Jon holds a 1.83 ERA in this post season. He's struck out 18 while walking just five in 19 2/3 innings. Graza's had a problem with control in the playoffs, walking 7 in 12 innings. That's out of line with both his season and his career.

This game should favor the Rays. Garza pitched very well at the Trop this season, posting a 2.89 ERA in home games. Lester, on the other hand, earned a 4.09 ERA on the road this season. Those numbers were in the opposite direction in game three, yet Garza came out on top.

Lester's problems on the road come from right-handed batters pounding him. They're hitting .305. You would think with Lester as a lefty in Fenway, he'd have more trouble with righties there.

Garza does a better job of limiting opponents power at home. Only 18 of the 49 extra base hits against Garza came at the Trop. If he can hold the Red Sox to singles tonight, they will need many more hits to score.

The Rays lead the Red Sox in runs 40-27 in the series. If the Red Sox win, it's likely to be a reversal of the regular season in which the Red Sox had a much bigger run differential than the Rays, yet finished second in the AL East.

I'm expecting a fun game tonight. Enjoy!

George Vecsey notes Joe Maddon's fondness for Gene Mauch and wonders if the Rays skipper will suffer the same fate. Mauch, after all, saw an improbable Boston comeback in game five of the 1986 ALCS, then lost games six and seven.

Mauch, as far as I can tell from listening to stories about him, was a brilliant manager who more than anything suffered from bad luck at crucial moments in his career. He was also, however, a man wedded to a small ball strategy that probably wasn't right for every team he managed. He was probably the last manager who was willing to give up outs early in a game to score a small number of runs. Mauch made progress with teams, but only the Angels won long term for him. He never produced a .600 winning percentage. His best showing was .574 with the 1982 Angels.

Maddon, in that regard, has already exceeded Gene. Maddon also strikes me as a person who is always looking for a better way. He's willing to question his beliefs and tactics and people skills to find something that works. A loss today will teach Joe Maddon something about himself, his team, and how to do better in the future. I don't know if Mauch's various collapses caused Gene to change his approach at all.

Jon Lester doesn't seem to think his troubles in game three mattered:

"You know, I don't know if they approached me any different," Lester said. "I just think that's their approach, to go out and get the fastball early. That's kind of what we've seen all year from them and in the past. I don't think I have to change my game plan."

Maybe he's right, as Lester's game plan worked very well during the regular season. However, if the Rays have adjusted based on their regular season failures against Jon, Lester should be trying to determine how to adjust back.

Joe Maddon's plan to win with Shields in game six failed tonight as the the Red Sox out hit, out pitched, and out fielding the Rays. The game was not as close as the 4-2 score indicated, with Boston a hit away from breaking the game wide open a number of times.

Shields, like Kazmir in game five, ran his pitch count high early, and he tired in the sixth. Francona removed Beckett as soon as he could, handing the ball over to the bullpen for four innings. Okajima, Masterson and Papelbon did not allow a hit, which greatly diminished the chances of a Tampa Bay comeback.

Crisp replacing Ellsbury continues to pay dividends as Coco reached base four times from the leadoff slot tonight, scoring a run along the way. Varitek homered and Ortiz knocked out two more hits as the lackluster Boston offense of four of the first five games appears to have found its groove.

Game seven rematches Garza and Lester from game three. Fenway worked for Lester and against Garza in that game, but Matt won out. The opposite will be true in game seven. We'll see if the game goes according to script or if once again roles are reversed. I can't wait.

The Red Sox go down 1-2-3 in the ninth. The Rays need two runs, with Longoria, Crawford and Aybar due against Jonathan Papelbon.

Update: Longoria grounds out to short. One down.

Update: Crawford strikes out, not even coming close on his two swings.

Update: Aybar gets good wood on the ball, but the line drive goes right into Youkilis's glove, and the Red Sox win 4-2.

The Red Sox get two on but Chad Bradford gets Kevin Youkilis to ground into a double play. Barlett, Iwamura and Upton are due up in the bottom of the eighth. Two of them have homered in this game.

Update: Masterson hits Barlett on a 3-2 pitch, and the Rays get the leadoff man on.

Update: Masterson falls behind Iwamura 2-0, but after a chat with the pitching coach Dustin throws three straight strikes for the K. Upton up.

Update: Pena pops up the first pitch for the third out. The Red Sox are three outs away from forcing a game seven.

It turns out the Red Sox have never lost a game six when they were down 2-3 in a series.

Update: Upton pops out. Masterson hasn't thrown a ball since the visit from the pitching coach.

Howell gets two outs, but a hit Bay winds up at second. That brings in Grant Balfour to face Lowrie.

Update: Balfour lives up to his name and walks Lowrie.

Update: Navaro allows a high 1-2 pitch to get by hime for a passed ball and the Red Sox have runners at 2nd and 3rd for Varitek.

Update: Jason flies out to right and Okajima comes out for another inning.

Update: Three fly balls and three outs for Hideki in the seventh. The Rays are down to six outs to get two runs. Given that the Red Sox put eight more men on than the Rays by a hit, walk or HBP, it's impressive Tampa Bay is only down two.

Hideki Okajima relieves Josh Beckett to start the bottom of the sixth. Beckett was at 78 pitches and throwing well. I'm a bit surprised by this move. It adds the speculation that Beckett is hurt. Francona got him out of the game as soon as possible.

Update: Okajima walks Longoria but that's it. Sox still lead 4-2 going to the seventh inning.

Jason Varitek gets the run back in the top of the sixth with a home run. It's his first hit of the ALCS and the Red Sox are up 3-2. Shields is up over 100 pitches. I wonder if he'll pitch the seventh.

Crisp singles off Shields first, his third hit of the game. He's as hot as Ellsbury was cold. Maddon takes James out of the game.

Update: Howell comes in and induces Pedroia to hit a ground ball to Bartlett. Jason throws it away, and the Red Sox have runners on first and third with two out for Ortiz in the top of the sixth.

Update: Ortiz delivers a single to right-center and the Red Sox lead 4-2. Boston has runners on 1st and 2nd with two out with Youkilis coming up.

Update: Youkilis strikes out swinging to end the inning. The Rays only have four hits this evening, and they only scored because two of them were home runs. They need more batters on base to do more damage with their power.

Dioner Navarro singles leading off the fifth. With one out, however, he's caught stealing on a busted hit and run play. It's the first time in 18 tries that the Boston catcher threw out a Rays stealer (there was a pickoff caught stealing). That's the kind of base running a sabermetrician can love.

The timing of the CS was poor, however, as Jason Bartlett homers to left to tie the game at two. Bartlett hit one home run in the post season, and Beckett has now allowed seven in the playoff this year.

Update: That's all the Rays get. According to the broadcast, Beckett's seven home runs allowed ties a post-season record.

Update: Eric Show in 1984, Scott Garrelts in 1989 andAndy Pettitte in 1996 all allowed seven home runs in a post season.

TBS is blaming router failure in Atlanta for the snafu at the beginning of game 6 that kept the first 20 minutes of the game off the air. Here's why they didn't delay the game:

Major League Baseball spokesman Rich Levin said MLB was unaware there was a problem until the broadcast failed to come on the air. No consideration was given to delaying the start of the game because the starting pitchers already had warmed up, Levin said.

The problem started about 7:45 PM EDT however, because they put on a bloopers show. If TBS had said at that time there were problems, they could have delayed the warmups. TBS screwed up here big time.

J.D. Drew doubles with two out in the fifth, giving him four hits in his last four at bats with a walk mixed in for good measure. The Red Sox can't drive him in, however. Boston still leads 2-1 going to the bottom of the fifth.

The Red Sox and Rays each get a two out single in the fourth, both from players with the initials C.C. Coincidence?

Neither team scores. The Red Sox still lead 2-1 going to the top of the fifth.

Jason Varitek fouls off a pitch that gets Derryl Cousins in the lower part of the mask. It appears he's leaving the game. This isn't the first time this happened to Cousins.

The game is being delayed. Maybe they should replay the first inning we missed.

Update: The Rays are taking the field now, and Tim McCelland will umpire behind home plate. It's 9:34 PM EDT.

A walk to Pedroia, a double by Ortiz and a ground out by Youkilis and the middle of the Red Sox lineup is back in the business of generating offense. Boston takes a 2-1 lead in the top of the third. The two through five hitters collected three hits and two walks so far, and are responsible for both Boston runs.

Update: Walks to Drew and Bay load the bases with two out. The Red Sox have a chance to break the game open with Kotsay at the plate.

Update: Kotsay flies deep to center, but not deep enough as Upton pulls it in. Four batters reach in the inning, but only one scores as the Red Sox take a 2-1 lead in the third.

Kevin Youkilis leads off the second with a home run just over the leftfield wall. That ties the game at one. He has 12 hits this post season, six for extra bases.

Update: Two singles put Red Sox on 1st and 2nd with one out. Drew picked up his third hit in a row but was forced at second for the first out.

Update: Shields gets two fly balls to end the inning with the game tied at one.

Is anyone else seeing a blooper show on TBS right now instead of the pre-game show?

Update: I just talked to DirecTV and it does not appear to be a DirecTV problem. I take it people who have cable can't see the game either?

Update: The game isn't being broadcast, but starts anyway. Coco Crisp bunt singles but gets picked off, and the Red Sox fail to score in the first. I can't believe they didn't delay the start of the game until the problem was fixed.

Update: It appears Upton took Beckett deep in the bottom of the first. The Red Sox radio announcers just said that the catwalk kept it from going 20 rows back.

Update: They're scrolling a message now saying to stand by for the game.

Update: I see the game at 8:28 PM EDT.

Update: They showed the Upton home run. It hit the catwalk and landed in fair territory, but that ball is gone according to the ground rules. Beckett has now allowed six home runs this post season, and Upton has hit six. The Rays lead 1-0 after one inning.

Update: One of the comments indicates a power outage in Atlanta as the cause of the problem. Amazing. ESPN put in a backup generator in the mid 1990s.

The Rays try to win their first American League pennant at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The game starts at 8:07 EDT on TBS. The Red Sox game two starter, Josh Beckett, takes on the Rays game one starters, James Shields. Beckett is in the middle of a rough post season. In two starts so far he allowed 18 hits and 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. Five of those 18 hits went for home runs; Beckett gave up just 18 homers during the regular season. The only positive to point to for Beckett are his 11 strikeouts.

Shields, on the other hand, pitched this post season much like his regular season. In his two starts he allowed a 3.29 ERA versus 3.56 during the regular season. He's struck out 10 and walked three in 13 2/3 innings. He allowed just one home run so far.

Big Game James is also out to get a win in this LCS. He pitched great in game one, allowing just two runs in seven innings. Matsuzaka pitched better however, and Shields took the loss. With Beckett's health in question, Shields has a golden opportunity to wrap the series up tonight. I suspect Joe Maddon won't pull Shields from the game if he's pitching well, unlike what he did with Kazmir.

Enjoy!

Here's more video from Amalie Benjamin in which she reports the Red Sox considered flipping Beckett and Lester in games six and seven.

The Red Sox aren't going to do that, but it seems like a good idea to me. If you really believe right now that Lester is a better pitcher than Beckett, it makes sense to try to get the win against the Rays best pitcher. Of course, if the Red Sox win over Shields, then Lester-Garza (despite game 3) should favor Lester.

It looks like the Rays chance of winning last night came very close to 100%.

Alex Belth quotes Chip Carey, but Chip got the stat wrong:

When Carlos Pena came to bat with runners on first and second and just one out in the top of the inning, Chip Carey said, "Pena's only hit into two double plays all year..."

The kiss of death...Thanks, Skip.

Pena hit into six double plays in 2008. It's still an impressive number, but that's what happens when you rely on Elias for your stats. :-)

Scott Kazmir and the Rays bullpen couldn't have pitched any more differently. Kazmir faced 24 batters, allowing just two hits as he struck out seven. The pen faced 18 batters and allowed 9 hits, striking out just two. Kazmir's inability to go deep into the game cost the Rays tonight. It wasn't until the fifth inning that he became efficient, but he was very close to 100 pitches at that point.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox hitters found their stroke. Crisp reached base three times from the leadoff spot. Ortiz and Drew found their home run strokes. Youkilis and Kotsay contributed important hits.

Down 3-0 in 2004 they came back and won the ALCS. Down 3-1 in 2007 they came back to win the series. In all those games, however, they were never down like this. Eight runs in three innings when they looked like they were about to concede the game. Fans were leaving the park! Papelbon wasn't even able to stop the bleeding. Yet the team fought back again.

It's amazing, it's impressive, it defies the odds. I'll just repeat, wow. It's going to be a fun weekend in Tampa Bay.

J.P. Howell comes in to pitch for the Rays. Bartlett makes a great play as Pedroia hits a ball in the hole, Longoria deflects it, but Bartlett still picks it up and fires to first for the out. Ortiz up.

Update: Ortiz tries to bunt the 1-1 pitch, but it goes foul. David then swings and misses, bringing Youkilis to the plate.

Update: Howell is dropping in some nice curveballs in this inning. Youkilis fouls off a few, then grounds one to third. Longoria makes a nice backhand grab, but throws the ball short of first and the ball takes a big hop into the stands. It's an infield hit and error, and the Rays walks Bay to pitch to Drew.

Update: Howell falls behind Drew 3-0. He takes a strike, then lines a ball over the rightfielder's head to plate the winning run! J.D. Drew wins a place in Boston history, and no one thinks that signing is bad no. Youkilis scores, Drew drives in three, and there will be a game six in Tampa Bay Saturday.

That's one of the best post-season games I've seen. Wow.

Justin Masterson comes on to pitch the ninth, facing Barlett, the number nine hitter.

Update: Barlett lines a 1-2 pitch into left for a single.

Update: That's the first pitch for the bottom of the Rays' order.

Update: Iwamura flies out to left. Upton is up, needing a triple for the cycle.

Update: Upton walks to put the go-ahead run in scoring position for Pena.

Update: Masterson induces the 4-6-3 double play. Pena hit into six during the regular season. The Red Sox send up Pedroia, Ortiz and Youkilis in the bottom of the ninth, just the three they'd want.

Jason Bay leads off and draws a four pitch walk from Dan Wheeler.

Update: J.D. Drew homers to right and makes this a one-run game. The Red Sox comeback legend may get a new chapter tonight. What a game!

Update: Lowrie flies out, and Sean Casey hits for Varitek.

Update: Might Casey has struck out. Two down.

Update: Kotsay doubles to deep left center, just off Upton's glove. On that play it was a game of inches. Crisp up.

Update: I'm surprised Maddon is sticking with Wheeler this long.

Update: Crisp keeps fouling off 3-2 pitches.

Update: Crisp singles to left, driving in Kotsay! Tie game! Gross throws the ball into the ground, and Coco tries to go to second and gets thrown out.

This, of course, sets up the ultimate opponent's nightmare. If the Rays don't score, then David Ortiz may come to the plate with a chance to win the game in the ninth.

Papelbon retires the 6-7-8 hitters for the Rays in order in the eighth. The five through nine hitters for the Rays are 0 for 17 with two walks tonight.

Grant Balfour relieves Scott Kazmir to start the bottom of the seventh. Jed Lowrie doubles off the wall in the rightfield corner to greet Grant. It's only the third hit of the game for Boston.

Update: Varitek flies out to center. He has not picked up a hit in the series.

Update: Kotsay flies out to center, also.

Update: Crisp singles to left, but Lowrie only gets to third. Pedroia is up to try to get a run on the board.

Update: Dustin singles on a 3-2 pitch, a high line drive to right. If the game was on the line, Gross would have tried to dive for it, but he made sure it was just a single. The Rays lead is down to 7-1.

Update: Big Papi gets the crowd cheering for him again as he hits one around the Pesky pole for a three-run homer. That makes the score 7-4 Rays, and Balfour is out of the game. Anything can happen at Fenway, and usually does.

Update: Maddon brings in Wheeler to face Youkilis. The 1-1 pitch almost hits Kevin in the head.

Update: Youkilis flies out to end the inning. Too bad Papelbon couldn't stop the two runs in the top of the inning from scoring, otherwise this would be a one run game. Any Red Sox fans who left early wish they could get back in to Fenway right now.

Manny Delcarmen comes in and walks the first two batters in the seventh, Bartlett and Iwamura. Francona brings in Papelbon! What happens if there's a save situation later in the game? How can a manager possibly use a closer in an important game situation that's not at least in the eighth inning? Francona's going to be drummed out of the by the book managers club. :-)

Update: The Rays execute a double steal. They're not taking this game for granted.

Update: Upton hits a high fly ball that scrapes the wall, hitting the top of the scoreboard. Both runners score as Upton doubles. He's a triple away from the cycle, and the Rays now lead 7-0.

Update: The IBB to Carlos Pena works as Longoria grounds into a double play. Two down with Upton at third.

Update: Papelbon ends the inning, getting Crawford to ground out. It's stretch at Fenway with the Red Sox trailing 7-0. I've seen some great comebacks at Fenway, but this will need to be one of the best.

Kazmir strikes out two more to bring his total to seven after six innings of work. He looks like he's getting stronger, or maybe the Red Sox are just demoralized at this point. He's over 100 pitches at this point, so I'm betting we see the bullpen in the seventh. The Rays still lead 5-0.

Kazmir gets the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the bottom of the fifth, and doesn't throw too many pitches. His total is now 90, so the Rays should be able to get one more inning out of Scott. Tamap Bay leads 5-0.

Matsuzaka walks Iwamura leading off the fifth and that's it for Dice-K. Okajima comes in and strikes out Upton. Pena then bunts against the shift for an infield hit, putting a man in scoring position for Longoria.

Update: Iwamura steals third. Now a long fly scores a run.

Update: Longoria strikes out. It's up to Crawford.

Update: Crawford grounds out, and Okajima works out of the jam. With five times at bat left, the Red Sox trail 5-0.

The Rays still lead 5-0 at the end of four innings. Kazmir is at 83 pitches, meaning he's likely to go one more inning, just enough for a win if the bullpen can hold the lead. He's walked three, hit one, and struck out five, while allowing two hits.

Dice-K is at 75 pitches, but three of his five hits allowed left the park and accounted for all of the Rays runs.

David Ortiz grounds out in the bottom of the third and the fans boo him. Wow. You would think with all the big hits Ortiz collected over the years he'd be the one player cut some slack.

Mark Kotsay and Matsuzaka both make nice plays on a hard grounder by Iwamura. Akinori grounded one hard down the first base line, and Kotsay made a nice dive to stop it. His throw to Dice-K, however, was low, but Matsuzaka stayed with it, reached down, caught it, and tagged the bag for the out. That's three nice plays by the Red Sox so far in this game.

However, the home run ball hurts the Red Sox again. Upton singled, then Carlos Pena connected, sending the ball past the Pesky pole for a 4-0 Rays lead in the top of the third.

This game is going like the Phillies game yesterday, where Philadelphia drew first blood and kept building on the lead.

Update: Longoria follows with a solo shot, and the Rays lead 5-0. That's 19 home runs in 8 1/3 post season games for the Rays.

Update: Floyd strikes out to end the inning. Dice-K didn't allow three home runs in a game all season. Twice he allowed two.

For the second inning in a row, the Red Sox get two on with two out. Kazmir hit Varitek, then gave up a single to Kotsay in the bottom of the second.

Update: Kazmir strikes out Crisp to end the inning. It's another heavy pitch inning for Scott, however, as he's now up to 46 pitches.

Dioner Navarro hits a screaming line drive right back at Matsuzaka's head in the top of the second. He's squared up to the plate, however, and gets his head out of the way and his glove in front of the ball to make the catch. Nice, quick reactions on that play.

Update: Gabe Gross walks with two out. I was afraid there was something wrong with Dice-K, as he hadn't walked anyone yet. :-)

Update: Barlett flies out to end the inning. Still 2-0 Rays.

Coco Crisp does his job and draws a walk leading off the bottom of the first.

Update: Pedroia moves Crisp to second with a ground out, but Ortiz goes down swinging. It's up to Youkilis to keep the inning going.

Update: Kazmir walks Youkilis. Walks continue to be Scott's bane. Jason Bay comes to the plate.

Update: Bay flies out to center. Kazmir throws 21 pitches, however. As long as he keeps walking a high number of batters, he won't be able to go deep in games.

Terry Francona starts Coco Crisp in the leadoff spot tonight. Coco's LCS OBA is .500. He doesn't drop the cold David Ortiz, however. Big Papi is still batting third.

Iwamura starts off the game with a single to right.

Update: Upton hits his sixth home run of the post season, the ball landing right on top of the Green Monster. It took a while for Daisuke Matsuzaka to give up a hit in game 1. He's allowed two to the first two batters and trails 2-0.

Dice-K comes back to strike out Carlos Pena looking.

Update: Matsuzaka gets Longoria and Crawford, but puts the Red Sox in an early 2-0 hole. We'll see if the new top of the lineup can help the Red Sox climb out quickly.

The Rays get three chances to eliminate the Red Sox and tonight they send Scott Kazmir against Daisuke Matsuzaka. Maddon's reasoning for the Kazmir start has to do with bullpen use:

Maddon said he talked about this move even before the series started. Helping him make the decision, he said, was that Wednesday was an off-day, and if a Game 6 is necessary, Friday also is an off-day.

His reasoning is that the bullpen should be fresh, which is important because Kazmir doesn't tend to pitch deep into games.

In two postseason starts, he has lasted a total of 9 2/3 innings.

"We like the fact that he's pitching with an open day following, the ability to utilize the entire bullpen," Madden said. "We also like the idea of him pitching here, and we like the idea of Shields' being able to pitch at home, if necessary.

Again, it's a win in six or seven, not win in five strategy. If Shields were to pitch and lose tonight, and Kazmir pitches badly on Saturday, the bullpen would be blown out for Sunday. This way, if the bullpen needs to pitch four or five innings tonight, they have a day to recover. Kazmir is averaging 4 2/3 innings this post season, and averaged just over five innings a start in September.

Against that is Daisuke Matsuzaka who has been down and up in this post season. The Angels gave him some trouble, scoring three runs in five innings, but he shutout the Rays for seven in game one. Daisuke was much more himself in that game, walking four but allowing just four hits.

It's an 8:07 start on TBS, and it seems to me there's a good chance the Red Sox come out on top in this one.

Enjoy!

Cole Hamels won the NLCS MVP, and very deservedly so. He also says the right things when winning an awad:

"To get an award like this is something surreal. This definitely has to go to the whole team right here. But it's only a stepping stone," Hamels said. "Being in that parade down Broad Street is what we all want. Getting a World Series ring and trophy is what really matters. Getting there is great, but winning it all is the best."

The Phillies held the Dodgers to 20 runs in the series, four runs a game. There was, however, a big difference between Hamels and the rest of the starters. Blanton, Myers and Moyer allowed 14 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings of work, good for an 11.12 ERA. The Phillies offense and bullpen was able to compensate in two of those starts, but Cole allowed the Phillies to win the one low scoring game of the series and make the clinching game easy on the whole team.

The one thing that stands out in Cole's performance this post season is the one home run he allowed, an opposite field shot by Manny Ramirez in game 5. During the regular season, his rate of allowing home runs was 24.6 per 200 innings. He brought that rate down somewhat in August and September, but brought that to the extreme against a good home run hitting club in Milwaukee and a Manny powered team in Los Angeles. He's allowed 9.1 home runs per 200 innings this post season, almost 1/3 of his regular season rate.

Hamels strikes batters out, limits their walks, and now limits their home runs, too. The Phillies defense can take care of the rest, making Hamels a winner and the team National League Champions.

Cole Hamels pitches his third brilliant game of the post season, allowing just one run over seven innings. That's three earned runs in 22 innings for the Phillies ace. He didn't have the strikeouts working tonight, but his defense helped with with two double plays. His only mistake was the home run to Manny Ramirez, a mistake a lot of pitchers make.

Offensively, the heart of the Phillies order got the job done. Utley, Howard and Burrell all hit .300 or better against the Dodgers. Victorino made his hits count as he slugged .500 and Carlos Ruiz did a good job keeping rallies going at the bottom of the order. Of course, Matt Stairs will go down in history with one of the most memorable Philies pinch hits, his game winning homer Monday night.

The Phillies hit better, ran better, fielded better and pitched better. Maybe with both teams on the east coast this year, Fox will start the games a little earlier so school kids can watch them without staying up too late?

The Phillies don't score in the top of the innings. The Dodgers trail 5-1 and send up James Loney, Casey Blake and Matt Kemp.

Update: Brad Lidge comes in to pitch. At least he can't blow a save. :-)

Update: Loney dumps a broken bat single into shallow center. The Dodgers need a few more of those.

Update: Blake flies out to Victorino. One down, one on.

Update: Kemp hits a 2-0 pitch to the wall in straight away center. Victorino catches it for out number two. One out to go.

Update: Nomar Garciaparra pops out to the catcher, Ruiz, in foul territory, and the Phillies win the game 5-1 and the series 4-1. It will be an all east coast World Series as the Phillies await the outcome of the Red Sox and Rays.

The Phillies go down 1-2-3 in the eighth. The top of the Dodgers order is due up in the bottom of the eighth. Given the weakness at the bottom of the Los Angeles lineup, this is the inning they are going to need to score if they're going to send this series back to Philadelphia.

Update: Furcal hits a line drive up the middle on a shattered bat. Chase Utley dives through the air to make the catch. Madson is in the game for Hamels.

Ethier flies out to right for the second out.

Update: Manny gets a ball to bounce over Rollins's glove for a single. Russell Martin get a chance to do some damage.

Update: Martin grounds out to first to end the inning. He's now hitting .118 in the series. His OBA is .318, but he has no extra base hits.

The Dodgers get two on with two out for Jeff Kent in the bottom of the seventh. Hamels strikes him out looking with a pitch on the outside corner. There have been lots of complaints about the strike zone tonight, and it does appear to be a bit wide. The Phillies still lead 5-1 after seven innings. They're six outs away from a trip to the World Series.

Hamels keeps the bases clear for Manny Ramirez as he hits a two-out home run in the bottom of the sixth. That's his fourth home run this post-season and extends his career record to 28. The Dodgers now trail 5-1.

Update: Hamels comes back to strike out Martin and the sixth ends with the Phillies leading 5-1.

Casey Blake and Matt Kemp both single to start the fifth. Blake DeWitt, comes up, hitting .083 in the series.

Update: DeWitt hits into a double play. Torre should have pinch hit for him.

Update: Kent pinch hits for Maddux and strikes out. A great opportunity to score goes by the boards as the bottom of the lineup can't deliver.

Update: Kent stays in the game at second.

Werth singles to lead off the fifth. Loney bobbles a double play ball and gets just the lead runner. That allows Ryan Howard to single and put runners on first and second as Maddux faces Burrell.

Update: Oops. Furcal can't pick up the ball on the backhand, kicks it away, then throws it away. Utley scores and the runners end up at second and third. Maddux induced two double play balls in this inning and only would up with one out from the pair. The Phillies lead 4-0 as Maddux intentionally loads the bases with one out.

Update: Maddux strikes out Feliz. He probably doesn't trust his fielders at this point.

Update: Furcal throw low to first on a Ruiz grounder and Loney can't handle it. What should have been the third out is the fifth run for the Phillies. The game is getting out of hand.

Update: Hamels grounds out to first, but the damage is done. The Dodgers have five innings to score five runs while holding the Phillies scoreless.

Maddux does indeed start the fourth inning for the Dodgers.

Update: Maddux gets a fly ball, then strikes out Hamels and Rollins as he retires the side in order in the fourth. Efficient as ever, Maddux uses just 13 pitches to get through the inning.

Update: The Dodgers go down 1-2-3 as well as Hamels has now allowed 10 hits in 19 post-season innings.

After DeWitt grounds into the double play, he fails to get a tag on Rollins stealing second in the top of the third. Jimmy walked to reach and the throw beat him easily. DeWitt took the throw in front of the bag, and Rollins slid to the back of the bag. Blake could not get the tag around in time to earn the putout.

Update: Utley walks to put men on first and second for Ryan Howard with two out.

Update: Billingsley makes Howard look bad on two fastballs, but hangs a curves that Ryan smacks for an RBI single. The Phillies lead 2-0.

Update: Burrell singles into the gap in right, plating Utley from third. Ryan goes to third on the hit, and the Phillies lead 3-0. Utley moves up to second on a wild pitch.

Update: Victorino walks to load the bases, and once again Chad Billingsley fails to complete the third inning. He puts more pressure on the bullpen and his offense.

Update: Chan Ho Park gets Feliz to ground out to end the inning. Isn't this the point where the Dodgers bring in Greg Maddux and the grizzled veteran pitches one last great game to keep hope alive?

Update: The Dodgers go down 1-2-3 in the third. Hamels now has thrown over twice as many strikes as balls.

Chad Billingsley strikes out two batters in the second, giving up just a single to Feliz. He's already pitching much better than in game two.

Update: Hamels isn't better in the second as two of the first three batters single. Blake DeWitt, however, grounds into a double play to end the inning. Still 1-0 Phillies after two.

Hamels walks Manny Ramirez, but otherwise retires the Dodgers easily. He doesn't strike out a batter however, and throws more balls than strikes. We'll see if that continues.

Jimmy Rollins gets the Phillies off to a good start with a home run off Chad Billingsley to start the game. Billingsley walks the second batter, Jayson Werth. Torre should get the bullpen going early tonight.

Update: Utley grounds into a reverse force double play. The tag play at second hurts Furcal, who the Dodgers can ill afford to lose.

Update: Billingsley gets out of the inning with no more damage. The Phillies draw first blood, leading 1-0 with the Dodgers coming to bat.

The Phillies play triple match point tonight as they face the Dodgers at 8:22 PM EDT, 5:22 PM PDT. Phillies ace Cole Hamels takes the hill against Chad Billingsley, Mr. No Brushback. A win gives the Phillies six days off before the World Series.

Cole Hamels enters the game with two great starts under his belt this post season. In 15 innings, Cole allowed just eight hits and three walks while striking out 17. His two earned runs allowed translates to a 1.20 ERA. He's only pitched once before at Dodger Stadium, but his results were very good.

Chad Billingsley comes off a very rough outing in Philadelphia, but he'll be pitching in a park that was very good to him this season. Chad went 10-4 with a 2.95 ERA at Dodger Stadium. In almost the extra same number of innings home and road, Chad allowed fewer hits, walks and home runs while striking out 23 more batters. He allowed a .219 BA with runners in scoring position during the regular season, something he'll need to approach if he wants to keep the Dodgers hope for a World Series appearance alive.

Enjoy!

Scott Kazmir, not James Shields, starts game five in Boston. Both these pitchers are better home than away, but Shields has the bigger spread. Shields is also the more reliable of the two at this point. Here's my guess as to what Maddon is thinking:

• Both Shields and Kazmir have a decent chance to lose against Matsuzaka in game 5.
• The chance of winning Saturday in Tampa Bay is higher with Shields than with Kazmir.
• Despite the result of game 3, a Lester/Garza matchup still favors Lester.

Maddon is setting things up for a game six win. If Kazmir pitches great in game five and the Rays win, it's a big boost for his future confidence. If he doesn't pitch well and loses, he'd rather have Shields going against Beckett, especially with Beckett not at 100%. He's maximizing the chance of winning in six games, rather than the chance of winning in five.

Update: Here's the math verison.

Probability of Winning (my guess)	Kazmir	Shields
Game 5	0.35	0.5
Game 6	0.5	0.7

Now, let's ask what is the probability of losing both games five and six with these starters. If the Rays use Shields in game 5 and Kazmir in game six, they have a 25% chance of losing both games. If they reverse that, however, the probability of losing two games drops to 19.5%. I'm sure the Rays did a lot more work to estimate these probabilities, but they likely reached a similar conclusion.

The Rays go up 3-1 on the Red Sox, just where Boston was in 2007 at this point. The difference was the Red Sox would return to Fenway if they won game five. Here, they'll need to go on the road and win in Tampa Bay.

In last year's LCS, Beckett, Schilling and Matsuzaka shut down the Indians as Boston won in three romps as Boston won those three by a combined score of 30-5. They send two of those three, flipping Dice-K and Josh, and substituting Lester for Schilling. However, they also have to face three good pitchers in Shields, Kazmir and Garza. Can history repeat itself? The odds are certainly against the Red Sox. They are hurting while the Rays are healthy. I suspect the series will go back to Tampa Bay, but Boston will find it difficult to sweep the Rays at home. If the last four years have taught us anything, however, it's don't count out the Red Sox in the LCS.

The Rays go down 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth. The Red Sox need nine runs to tie as they come to bat in the bottom of the inning.

Update: Sean Casey pinch hits and strikes out looking.

Update: Crisp walks. He does his job in the game, getting on base twice.

Update: Ellsbury pinch hits and walks on four pitches. Edwin Jackson just needs to put the ball over the plate and let his defense help him.

Update: Jackson is taking care of everything this inning as he strikes out Lowrie. It's up to J.D. Drew.

Update: Drew Ks, and the Rays win the game 13-4. They now lead the series three games to one.

Andy Sonnanstine allows a third run in the eighth, and Trever Miller comes on in relief. Sonnanstine gives up six hits and one walk, impressive as he struck out only two batters. The Red Sox were 6 for 26 putting the ball in play against Sonnanstine.

Miller strikes out Ortiz but Youkilis doubles, and Sonnanstine ends up charged with four runs. It's 13-4 Tampa Bay.

Update: Edwin Jackson comes in and strikes out Jason Bay. The Rays go to the ninth with a 13-4 lead.

Carl Crawford drives in Carlos Pena with a triple, Carl's fifth hit of the game. He misses the cycle by a home run, but who knows, the Rays may go through the lineup one more time. :-) It's now 12-2 Rays.

Update: Aybar drives in his fifth run of the game with a single, his fourth hit. Crawford and Aybar are a combined nine for ten with seven RBI and four runs scored.

Navarro grounds into a double play and the Rays take a 13-2 lead into the bottom of the eighth.

Actually, I'm not sure if it's TBS or DirecTV inserting commercials, but I just missed David Ortiz's triple leading off the bottom of the seventh. Youkilis grounds out to plate Big Papi, and the Red Sox cut the Rays lead to 11-2.

Update: Bay singles with one out. Sonnanstine is at 76 pitches, so he shouldn't be tiring yet.

Update: B.J. Upton makes a nice play on a deep fly ball to center by Kotsay, two out.

Update: Crisp walks with two outs. This is Sonnanstine's first tough inning of the game.

Update: He strikes out Cash to end the inning. The Red Sox need to average five runs over the next two innings to win the game.

A Red Sox fan living in New York has a tough time eating his favorite food right now.

Jason Bartlett triples into the right-center gap with one out in the top of the sixth. Six of the nine hits the Rays collected tonight have gone for extra bases, two doubles, a triple and three home runs.

Update: After a walk to Iwamura, Upton singles to drive in Bartlett and the Rays lead 7-1 in the sixth. Joe Maddon is smiling in the dugout.

Update: Carlos Pena walks to load the bases for Longoria. A long Longoria hit would put this game out of reach.

Update: Longoria draws the third walk of the inning on a 3-2 pitch, and the Rays lead 8-1. That's it for Delcarmen.

Update: Javier Lopez comes in to face Carl Crawford with one out and the bases loaded.

Update: Crawford dinks one into shallow left for a single. That increases the lead to 9-1 and leaves the bases loaded for Aybar. Carl is four for four on the night with two doubles.

Update: Aybar singles through the hole at shortstop. Another run, another bases loaded situation, this time for Navarro. Aybar is three for four with four RBI, and the Rays keeping chipping away.

Update: Navarro hits a soft roller to third. Youkilis doesn't have time to throw home, so he gets the Rays catcher at first. Another run scores and the Rays lead 11-1. Two out in the sixth.

Update: Wow. TBS goes to a commerical early and we don't see the last out of the inning. That was very poor. It doesn't matter that much as the Rays lead 11-1 in the middle of the sixth. Still this is Fenway Park, where anything can happen.

Carl Crawford hits the Green Monster for his second double of the game. Willy Aybar drives him in with a single, but gets caught taking too big a turn around first on the relay from the throw home. The Rays extend their lead to 6-1.

Update: Sonnanstine pitches another easy inning in the bottom of the fifth. He's at 58 pitches, 38 for strikes.

The Rays and Red Sox both fail to score in the fourth inning. Sonnanstine is working on a two hitter, having not allowed a walk. He's at 48 pitches through four innings. It's still 5-1 Rays.

The Rays will remove tarps from seats at Tropicana Field to increase seating capacity for games 6 and 7 of the ALCS:

The Rays announced today they will remove the tarps on upper-level seats, making 5,762 more tickets available if the ALCS goes to Game 6. The seats, mostly with obstructed views of the field, haven't been sold for previous games this season.

If you win, they will come. Of course, the way the ALCS is going right now, there may not be a game six.

Kevin Cash puts the Red Sox on the board with a Red Sox home run into the Green Monster seats. That's the first earned run Sonnanstine allowed against the Red Sox this season. That was also Cash's first post-season plate appearance.

Update: That's all the Red Sox get as Sonnanstine retires the next three batters. Andy is working very efficiently, throwing just 34 pitches through three innings. The Rays lead 5-1 at the end of three.

Willy Aybar follows a two-out Crawford single with a home run over the Green Monster seats. That puts the Rays up 5-0. Navarro then doubles off the wall, chasing Tim Wakefield from the game. That's three games in a row in which the Rays hit the Boston starter hard.

Update: Dustin Masterson comes in to face "Columbia" Fernando Perez.

Update: Perez gets caught looking at a pitch on the outside corner to end the inning. The Rays are in control right now, up 5-0.

The Red Sox put runners on first and third thanks to a Longoria error and a Kotsay single. Crisp, however, grounds into a double play to end the second. The Rays still lead 3-0.

Andy Sonnanstine retires the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the first, getting an air out, a strikeout and a ground out. He threw just 11 pitches.

Update: It's just as easy for Wakefield in the top of the second. He retires the Rays 1-2-3, throwing just four pitches.

Tim Wakefield retires Iwamura on a swinging strikeout to start the game against the Rays.

Update: Upton walks on four pitches, then runs on the first pitch to Pena and steals second.

Update: Carlos Pena gets a high knuckleball and drives it the opposite way into the Green Monster seats for a 2-0 lead. Longoria follows with a ball pulled into the same seats for a 3-0 lead. The Rays continue their power barrage against the Red Sox in this series and Tim Wakefield this season.

Crawford doubles down the rightfield line to keep the hits coming.

I believe Longoria's home run breaks the rookie record for home runs in a post season of four, set by Miguel Cabrera in 2003.

Update: Willy Aybar bats righty against the right-handed Wakefield, but strikes out. Crawford moves up to third on the second stolen base of the inning. The Rays are getting to Wakefield in every way possible.

Update: Navarro walks, but Fernando Perez pops out in foul territory to end the inning. The Red Sox come to bat down 3-0.

The Red Sox bench Jacoby Ellsbury and move J.D. Drew into the leadoff spot. Drew posted a .408 OBA in the regular season and so far he's at .400 in the LCS. Crisp will bat seventh and play centerfield.

The Rays lead the Red Sox two games to one as Andy Sonnanstine takes the mound against Tim Wakefield. The Rays are ahead of the Red Sox for the same reason they finished ahead of the White Sox; they are out powering a power team. The lead Boston in slugging percentage .495 to .426. A big reason for that is B.J. Upton. He dropped from 24 homers in 2007 to nine this season due to a shoulder injury. Healthy now, his home run stroke returned in time for the playoffs. Imagine how many games the Rays would have won if Upton showed this kind of power all season.

Sonnanstine is one of the few Rays pitchers who performed as well on the road as at home. He gave up a few more homers away from the Trop, but issued fewer walks. He's a pitcher that allows a good number of batters to put the ball in play, so the improvement in the Rays defense helped Andy's ERA tremendously.

The Red Sox did not score an earned run off Sonnanstine this season, and the two unearned runs were enough to keep him from a decision in two starts. Twice he hooked up in pitching duels with Josh Beckett and twice the Rays won the games late.

Tim Wakefield actually has a pretty poor post season record. He's 5-6 with a 6.36 ERA. The years 1992 and 2003 was the only ones in which he pitched well, and 2003 is remembered for him giving up the Aaron Boone home run.

The Rays handled Wakefield well this season. He walked more (8) than he struck out (7) and allowed a home run every five innings. That was good for an 0-2 record and a 5.87 ERA. Red Sox nation should be very worried about this game.

Enjoy!

Adam Kilgore sums up the changing story lines of the ALCS:

The narrative of a playoff baseball series is severe, see-sawing tensions like a serial novel. The Red Sox won Game 1 of the American League Championship Series - the Rays were too young and too scared; Josh Beckett and Jon Lester loomed; the series was over. The Rays now hold the same one-game advantage - the Red Sox are too old and too injured; Beckett is finished and Lester mortal; the series is over.

These are two good teams fighting tooth and nail. I would not be surprised if the series is over in five games, and would be equally unsurprised if it went seven. We've seen in the play of Longoria, Pedroia and Ellsbury how fast players can go from hot to cold and cold to hot.

Cole Hamels surprised John Gonzalez by predicting a Phillies series win before game four of the NLCS:

Thereafter, in walked Hamels. Normally, he's about as interesting as Andy Reid. When I have trouble sleeping, I play Hamels or Reid on loop and I'm out before I know it. Which is why Hamels' comments surprised me.

He talked about how he didn't think the Phils would have to face Derek Lowe in Game 7, because he didn't think there'd be one. He talked about how the Phils were almost to the World Series. And more than once, he talked about clinching this series. Now this was before the Phils' improbable 7-5 comeback victory yesterday.

Hamels is now in a position to clinch the NL pennant with a win on Wednesday night.

Ken Rosenthal criticizes Joe Torre for lifting Derek Lowe too soon:

Five innings, 74 pitches, Lowe coming off his first 1-2-3 inning.

Yes, Lowe was working on three days rest. Yes, the Dodgers had just taken a 3-2 lead. Yes, Torre could deplete his bullpen with a day off on Tuesday.

But in hindsight, Torre acted too soon.

It seemed Torre was expecting Lowe to fail soon, when there was little evidence of that. Yes, he was giving up hits, but apart from the first he wasn't giving up runs. He was in control, walking just one batter and throwing strikes twice as often as balls. He looked to me that he had found a groove and seemed to have two innings left. There's no use saving him for game seven, since he'll have regular rest anyway.

Now, the Dodgers bullpen is among the best in the business. Torre, however, starts with the inexperienced Kershaw and follows with the unreliable Park. Why not go with Kuo in that spot? He's left-handed and a long reliever. Let him get through the heart of the order, then bring in Kershaw to face the weaker 7-8-9 hitters in the seventh.

Torre left himself with a long road to Broxton. Maybe he should have had someone ready, and pull Lowe at the first sign of trouble. If Derek pitches into the seventh, Joe avoids the back of the pen, and maybe the Dodgers win that game. The more pitchers a manager brings into a game, they more likely he is to bring in one having a bad day.

The Phillies don't score in the top of the ninth, so the Dodgers have three outs to score at least two runs. Berroa, Blake and the pitchers are due up.

Update: Garciaparra pinch hits for Berroa and flies out to center.

Update: Blake goes down swinging. Two outs and Kent pinch hits.

Update: Kent hits it hard, but lines out to third base. Once again, the Phillies power makes the difference as two home runs in the eighth plate four runs, and the Phillies win 7-5. That gives them a 3-1 lead in the series, and they've done an excellent job in this series of hurting the Dodgers pitchers. They came into the series with the best ERA in the National League. The two teams get an extra day off to think about game five. Even if the Dodgers win that one, the Phillies just need a split back home to win the series.

Rafael Furcal draws a walk to lead off the bottom of the eighth, but Andre Ethier grounds into a double play. That brings up Manny Ramirez, with the most damage he can do pulling the Dodgers within one. Nonetheless, Romero comes out and Brad Lidge comes in for the four-out save.

Update: Manny doubles into the left-center gap. It's up to Russell Martin now.

Update: Pretty much everything unusual is happening in this game. Martin strikes out swinging, but the ball gets away from Ruiz and rolls over to the third base dugout. The wild pitch puts runners at first and third with two outs for Loney.

Update: Loney flies out to left, so there's no damage. The Phillies are three outs away from taking a 3-1 lead in the series.

After Ryan Howard leads off the eighth with a single, Cory Wade comes to pitch to Burrell. He gets Pat to pop out to second.

Update: Shane Victorino, however, pulls one into the rightfield bullpen to tie the game at five. Shane only hit 5 of his 14 home runs this season off right-handers.

Update: Ruiz singles with two out. That brings Matt Stairs in to pinch hit and Broxton in from the bullpen.

Update: Matt Stairs smacks the ball deep into the rightfield stands for a 7-5 Phillies lead. You knew that one was gone before he left the batters box. Broxton allowed just two home runs during the regular season in 69 innings pitched.

Update: Rollins walks to bring up Werth.

Update: Rollins steals second, but Werth strikes out to end the inning. The two two-run homers give the Phillies a 7-5 lead in the middle of the eighth.

Hong-Chih Kuo comes in and retires the Phillies in order in the seventh. He strikes out both Werth and Utley swinging. He struck out 96 in 80 innings during the regular season.

"Hanging" Chad Durbin puts one in Casey Blake's wheelhouse as the other Dodgers pickup homers leading off the bottom of the sixth to give Los Angeles a 4-3 lead. Durbin only allowed five home runs during the regular season, and that's the first he's allowed in the playoffs.

Juan Pierre picks up his second hit of the night as he doubles into the left-center gap.

Update: Kemp pinch hits and walks. He's not having a great post season, but that's the third walk he's drawn against the Phillies, raising his LCS OBA over .400.

Update: Wow. Scott Eyre relieves, and Torre decides to sacrifice with Furcal. Given Furcal's OBA, I'd let him hit. He bunts to a drawn in Howard, who decides his only play is at first. He then side-arms the throw, which sails away from Utley covering first. A run scores and the Dodgers have men at second and third, but with none out instead of one. Los Angeles leads 5-3 with Ethier at the plate.

Update: Ethier lines out to first. That brings up Manny Ramirez to draw his second intentional walk of the night.

Update: Chase Utley saves the day. He dives for a Russell Martin line drive, then scoots on all fours to second base to double up Furcal. It could have been a lot worse, but the Dodgers score twice in the inning to take a 5-3 lead at the end of six.

Update: Sorry, Utley stayed low and scooted, but he did it on two legs.

Clayton Kershaw relieves Derek Lowe to start the sixth. Lowe threw just 74 pitches, and the lefty comes in to face Ryan Howard.

Update: Kershaw walks Howard. That brings up Burrell.

Update: Kershaw falls behind Burrell, and Pat pulls a single through the shortstop hole. Victorino comes to the plate with men on first and second. The Dodgers bring the infield in and the Phillies reward them with Victorino laying down a bunt. Pedro Feliz bats for Dobbs with runners on second and third.

Update: Torre stalls for some time, then brings in Chan Ho Park.

Update: Feliz flies out to very shallow right. Ethier almost drops the ball, but Howard was not tagging, so when Andre falls over, Howard can't score. He does a moment later on a wild pitch, and the Phillies and Dodgers are tied at three.

Update: Ruiz walks, ending Blaton's night as Geoff Jenkins pinch hits. Torre counters with Joe Beimel.

Update: Mauel counters with Taguchi, who flies out to shallow right-center. Ethier makes a terrific catch to end the inning. The teams are tied at three in the middle of the sixth.

Rafael Furcal does his job, leading off the fifth inning with a walk.

Update: Andre Ethier dumps a single into short left-center. That brings Manny Ramirez to the plate. Does Manuel walk Ramirez in this situation? He's already walked twice tonight.

Update: They pitch to Manny, and he lines a belt high pitch into left. Bowa tries to stop Furcal at third, but he runs through the sign. Burrell throws home late, Furcal scores and the runners move up. The game is tied at two.

Update: Martin grounds out to short, plating Ethier for a 3-2 Dodgers lead. The announcers think Manny should have gone to third on the play, but it looked to me that Manny might have run into the batted ball if he started right away. By the time he made the decision, it was too late to go.

Update: Blanton gets DeWitt to hit into a twin killing and the Phillies get out of the inning trailing 3-2.

Since the first inning, Lowe and Blanton continue to stay in control The fourth inning ends with no changes as the Phillies still lead 2-1. Blanton leads Lowe 67-62 in pitches thrown. Lowe is also throwing a higher percentage of strikes. Blanton is ahead in the strikeout battle 4-3, while Lowe only walked one batter to Joe's two.

The Dodgers put runners on first and third with two out in the bottom of the third, but DeWitt flies out to left to end the inning. The Phillies still lead 2-1 after three.

Juan Pierre gets his second at bat of the post season and singles to center. They try for a hit and run with Lowe, however, and Pierre gets caught stealing. Lowe then pops one into centerfield that Rollins tries to catch over his shoulder, but drops. They give Lowe a hit.

Update: Furcal flies out to center to end the second inning. The Phillies remain in the lead 2-1.

The Phillies continue to hit Derek Lowe as Greg Dobbs doubles leading off the second inning. Four of the first seven Phillies collected hits.

Update: Nice comeback by Lowe in that inning as he gets a grounder to the box and two strikeouts to prevent any further damage. The Phillies still lead 2-1 in the middle of the second.

Rafael Furcal bunts a ball over the head of Greg Dobbs, drawn in at first base. I'm not sure if that's what he meant to do, but the bunt winds up in the outfield for a single. If he had pushed it a little harder, he might have doubled.

Update: A ground ball moves Furcal to second base with one out, and the Phillies intentionally walk Manny Ramirez. This could really backfire with a big hit here. It looks like Manny has entered the rare Barry Bonds universe in Charlie Manuel's mind.

Update: Russell Martin strikes out, but Only James Loney smacks the ball off the centerfield wall for a double. Furcal scores, but Manny has to hold at third. That's how hard Loney hit the ball. It's 2-1 Phillies.

Update: DeWitt lines out to end the inning. That IBB came very close to costing the Phillies the lead. They end the first ahead 2-1.

Jimmy Rollins gets the Phillies off to a good start with a single leading off the first inning against Lowe.

Update: Jayson proves his Werth. He and Rollins execute a perfect hit and run, moving Rollins to third on the single. Utley gets the first chance at an RBI.

Update: Utley pulls a ball just by a diving Loney as Chase doubles down the rightfield line. The Phillies lead 2-0 after Ryan Howard grounds out to the second baseman shifted to the outfield. The Phillies have a man on third with one out.

Update: Burrell draws a walk, as four of the first five Phillies batters reach against Lowe. The Dodgers complain that Burrell swung at the last pitch, but the first base umpire said no.

Update: Lowe induces a ground ball from Victorino, resulting in a double play. The Dodgers come to bat trailing 2-0.

Edwin Jackson gets to make an appearance in the LCS as he comes in to pitch the bottom of the ninth. Mark Kotsay leads off and lines out to third.

Update: Varitek grounds out to second, two down. It's up to Cora.

Update: Alex Cora flies out to left to end the game.

That was a good old fashioned drubbing. The Rays hit four home runs, including a big three-run blast by B.J. Upton that put the Rays up 4-0. Longoria added a solo shot in that inning, the third, to pretty much put the game out of reach. Those two have combined for nine of the Rays 13 post-season home runs.

The Rays win back home field advantage. The two pitchers, Garza and Lester would matchup in a game seven if the series goes that far. The location favored the Red Sox today as Lester was great at Fenway this season and Garza was poor on the road. If these two meet again, Garza will have that advantage. Of course, this game showed that might not be worth much.

Carlos Pena hits a home run in the top of the ninth to extend the Rays lead to 9-1. It's the second game in a row in which they scored nine runs. That's pretty good for games started by Beckett and Lester.

Crawford singles to start the eighth. Aybar then executes a dangerous hit and run, getting the ball into left on a high line drive. It falls for a hit, and the Rays put runners at first and third.

Navarro grounds to second with the infield in. Pedroia throws home, and Varitek makes a nice play, catching the ball up the third base line a bit and surviving the collision with Crawford. One out, men on first and second.

Update: Rocco rocks the park as Baldelli hits a home run off one of the billboards over the Green Monster. The Rays lead 8-1 and this game looks out of reach for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza comes out for the bottom of the seventh, but walks Varitek and gives up a single to Cora to put runners on first and third with none out. Garza leaves with a 5-0 lead after throwing 116 pitches.

Update: Howell gets Ellsbury to make another out, but the fly ball is deep enough to score a run. Pedroia then hits into a double play to end the inning. The Rays lead 5-1 after seven innings.

Jon Lester walks Rocco Baldelli with two out in the sixth, and Paul Byrd comes in to get the last out of the inning. Jon walks two and strikes out seven in his 5 2/3 innings of work, but the Rays go 8 for 17 putting the ball in play, including three extra-base hits.

Update: Garza also walks a man with two out in the sixth, but he stays in the game. That runner also gets stranded and the Rays continue to lead 5-0.

B.J. Upton reaches on an infield hit. The Red Sox shift to the right for Carlos Pena, and he bunts down the third base line for a hit. Upton, however, takes a turn at second and Youkilis throws him out. Pena makes up for that a bit by stealing second.

If you're going to make a mistake, the time to make it is with a 5-0 lead in the top of the fifth.

Tampa Bay gets a leadoff single from Dioner Navarro, but that's it. They still lead 5-0 and Jon Lester looks like he'll stay in the game awhile. He's thrown 71 pitches through four innings.

Update: Kotsay singles in the bottom of the inning, but that's all the Red Sox get. The fans are starting to boo.

Jason Bartlett singles and Iwamura doubles off the wall to put men on second and third with no outs in the top of the third for the Rays. It's the third half-inning in a row where the teams put men on second and third. The Rays scored in the second, the Red Sox didn't.

Interestingly, before this started, the announcers were talking about how Lester settles in at this point of the game. Not today. B.J. Upton hits a ball over the Green Monster and the Rays lead 4-0. That gives Upton five home runs in the post season. He only hit nine during the regular season after hitting 24 in 2007.

Update: Pena strikes out, but Longoria homers into the Monster Seats. That's his fourth home run of the post season. Looks like Paul Byrd may be in sooner than later.

Update: Crawford goes down on strikes for the second time. Lester only allowed 14 home runs on the season, and teams only took him deep twice in a game two times. Only one of those came at Fenway.

Update: A fly ball ends the inning, but two long balls do plenty of damage as the Red Sox find themselves down five runs in the bottom of the third.

Correction: Corrected the team with the lead.

Jason Bay earns his twelfth hit of the post season with an infield single in the shortstop hole. He's 12 for 26, a .462 post-season batting average. Mark Kotsay follows with a double into the right-center gap, and the Red Sox have men on 2nd and 3rd with one out.

Update: Varitek strikes out looking on a pitch on the high inside corner, and he complains. The TBS broadcast pitch tracker showed that one and the one to Ortiz a bit off the plate, but both pitches looked very good to me.

Cora flies out to Upton in center, and Garza protects the 1-0 lead.

Jon Lester throws more pitches to Evan Longoria than he did in the first inning. Longoria walks, the first base runner for the Rays.

Update: Lester does a nice job getting Crawford to swing at a pitch in the dirt for strike three. Aybar, however, goes back to first pitch swinging to single to center. The Rays now have a threat with runners on first and second and one out.

Update: A passed ball by Varitek set up the first run. Jason was set up inside, but the pitch was high and outside. Varitek tried to backhand the ball, but it bounced off his glove. The runners move up, and Navarro grounds out to second to plate Longoria.

Update: Baldelli, like his friend Carl Crawford, strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. The Rays, however, take a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the second.

Iwamura grounds out on the second pitch, then Upton grounds out on the first pitch for two quick outs.

Iwamura grounds out on the second pitch, then Upton grounds out on the first pitch for two quick outs.

Update: Pena hits the first pitch deep to center for the third out. It appears the Rays strategy is to swing early against Lester. So far, the only thing they've accomplished is to give Jon very little work as the side goes down on four pitches.

Update: Like Iwamura, Ellsbury goes down on two pitches, flying out to left. Pedroia, however, picks up the first hit of the game with a ball that scrapes the wall. He winds up on second with a double.

Update: Garza catches Ortiz looking at a 2-2 pitch on the outside corner. Ortiz didn't like it, but it was pretty close to take.

Update: Youkilis grounds out. No score in the first inning. The Red Sox made Garza work a bit, as he threw 16 pitches.

It should be a nice afternoon for a game in Boston as Matt Garza and Jon Lester batter in the Back Bay. Garza lived up to expectations this season, increasing his MLB innings by 100 over 2007 while maintaining nearly the same ERA. Graza allowed fourteen of his nineteen home runs on the road this year, accounting for his higher road ERA.

Matt had his troubles with Boston this season, despite starting three of his four games at home. He did pitch seven shutout innings against the Red Sox on July 1st. In his other three starts, he allowed 11 earned runs in 15 innings, walking eight and striking out seven.

Lester far exceeded expectations. He added nearly 150 innings, lowering his ERA nearly 1.4 runs vs. 2007. Lester only started against the Rays at home in 2008, posting a 0.90 ERA in three starts. He struck out over three times as many Rays as he walked.

Given the location strengths of Garza and Lester, the Red Sox should be clear favorites in this game.

Mid-season acquisition Joe Blanton gets to pitch on the west coast again as he face Derek Lowe. Lowe gets the game four start on short rest, allowing him to come back in game seven on normal rest. With the extra day off on Tuesday, Joe Torre only need his top three starters, Lowe making the only start on short rest. Torre's been conservative with Lowe's pitch counts this October, keeping him under 100 pitches in both games. Derek has his ground ball machine working as he's induced 27 ground balls and only seven fly balls in his two playoff starts.

Blanton made two starts against the Dodgers this year, and like the Phillies team in general, the one in Los Angeles was poor and the one in Philadelphia great. Overall, I'm impressed he struck out ten LA batters in eleven innings. Blanton is not much of a strikeout pitcher, so that's a good number for him. We saw Sunday night, however, how the Dodgers are good at getting hits off low K pitchers, so the same thing may happen to Joe this evening.

Enjoy!

Tonight's game featured 17 hits, 13 of them singles. The big difference between the two teams was the three run triple in the bottom of the first. The long hit with two outs and the bases loaded but the Dodgers in a commanding position for the rest of the game.

The Dodgers also did a better job of finding holes in the defense. The Phillies were 7 for 27 on balls in play, .259. The Dodgers were 10 for 23, .435. Blanton faces Lowe tomorrow night.

The Phillies come into the ninth inning having three outs to spend on five runs.

Update Jonathan Broxton is on to face Ryan Howard.

Update: Ryan grounds out to first. One down.

Update: Burrell strikes out, two down.

Update: Werth keeps the game alive with a ground single to right.

Update: Feliz pops out to end the game. The Dodgers win 7-2 and this series will go at least five games.

The Phillies get the leadoff man on in the eighth but don't score. The Dodgers are three outs away from making the series 2-1.

Chad Durbin hits Russell Martin with a breaking ball. That the second time he's been hit, and one other time the Phillies came close. With both sides warned, I'm surprised Durbin isn't out of the game. I thought that was automatic! I guess if the ump thought it was accidental, he doesn't have to chase the pitcher and the manager.

Utley doubles and Howard singles to put runners on first and third with nobody out. The Phillies need a big hit here in the seventh to get back in this game.

Update: They could get a lot of little hits, too. Burrell dumps a single into center to plate Utley, and it's 7-2 Dodgers with men on first and second. Kuroda leaves the game allowing five hits in 6+ innings.

Update: Cory Wade comes on in relief.

Update: Wade strikes out Werth, one down.

Update: Feliz flies out deep to center. Ryan Howard moves up to third, but Kemp's throw makes the play surprisingly close.

Update: Dobbs grounds out up the middle, and the Phillies fail to get the big hit. They trail 7-2 at the stretch.

Through six innings, Hiroki Kuroda is well in control of this game. He's allowed just two hits and one walk, despite a low strikeout total of three. He's thrown just 76 pitches, and with the big lead Torre can conserve the bullpen tonight. The Dodgers still lead 7-1 going to the bottom of the sixth.

Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin walk in the bottom of the fourth with two out. Garciaparra singles to left and Manny tries to score with two out. I thought Burrell had a great shot at throwing him out at the plate, but the ball was cut off to get Martin instead. I'm guessing that was the wrong move, as Manny scores and the Dodgers lead 7-1 after four. It looked to me that the throw was on the money and had plenty of time to beat Manny to the plate.

Happ comes in to pitch the bottom of the third, and two of the first three batters single against him. The Dodgers now have eight hits on the night. It's first and second with one out.

Update: Happ strikes out DeWitt and Kuroda and the Dodgers fail to score for the first time this evening. Still 6-1 Los Angeles after three innings.

Kuroda throws a pitch over Shane Victorino's head with two out in the top of the third. The umpire issues a warning to both benches, and Victorino is upset. He indicates, to Kuroda, hit me in my side, not my head.

McCarver claims it's safe to throw over a batter's head. Unless you miss of course.

Victorino grounds out, and the benches empty. Manny Ramirez is the most vocal, and the Dodgers push him off the field so he doesn't get thrown out nor suspended. It's all pretty calm for the benches clearing.

Rafael Furcal reaches for the second time tonight, although he doesn't stay on base long. He fly ball goes over the fence in left-center and the Dodgers lead is back to five in the bottom of the second, 6-1.

Update: Moyer get Ethier, but Manuel doesn't want him pitching to Manny again. Clay Condrey makes his second playoff appearance of 2008.

Update: Manny walks. Condrey almost hits Martin, then Russell grounds into a double play. Martin was hit in the first inning.

There were some complaints that Billingsley didn't retaliate against the ball thrown behind Manny's back in game two. Now that the Dodgers have a huge lead, we'll see what Kuroda does.

Ryan Howard doubles to lead off the second. He moves to third on the second out of the inning, then scores on a Feliz single. That's one back, four more to go as the Dodgers lead 5-1 in the middle of the second inning. The hit takes Feliz's post-season batting average over .200 as he's now 6 for 27.

Rafael Furcal and Andre Ethier each single to put men on first and second for Manny Ramirez in the bottom of the first. Manny singles through the shortstop hole to plate Furcal, but for some reason Burrell throws home. The Dodgers now have runners at second and third, leading 1-0.

Update: Manny now has five RBI in the three LCS games and eight in the playoffs. Martin gets hit on the knee to load the bases.

Update: Nomar hits a long foul ball down the leftfield line, but strikes out looking for the first out of the inning.

Update: Casey Blake goes the other way for a single and the Dodgers lead 2-0. The bases are still loaded and Matt Kemp is up.

Update: Kemp thought it was ball four, but the pitch caught the inside corner and Kemp is caught looking. Blake DeWitt looks for the big hit to break the game open.

Update: DeWitt triples down the rightfield line and clears the bases. That turns the inning from tolerable to game breaking for the Phillies. They lead 5-0 at the end of one.

Correction: DeWitt's hit was a triple.

Chase Utley walks, but he's caught stealing as the Phillies fail to score in the first.

The NLCS moves to Los Angeles as Jamie Moyer faces Hiroki Kuroda. Moyer played ten major league seasons before he made it to the playoffs. The trade from Boston to Seattle in 1996 set up his 17-5 1997 season, at that time the best of his career. He's now in his fourth post-season in the last 12 years, and his stats are remarkable. In six post season starts he's posted a 2.67 ERA, walking just nine in 33 2/3 innings and allowing just two home runs. Considering his his career ERA is 4.19, and teams tend to face excellent competition in the post season, his playoff ERA is rather impressive.

Moyer pitched extremely well on the road this season. His 2.92 away ERA was third in the National League. He also won 10 of his 16 games away from CBP.

At 33 years old, Kuroda's first MLB season was successful. His 3.73 ERA was good, getting there keeping his walks and home runs allowed low. He tends to give up hits with runners on first, but not with runners in scoring position. He gets into trouble but he also gets out of it.

He pitched great against the Phillies this season. In two starts, he lasted 13 innings giving up just four hits. He walked two and struck out 12 and most importantly didn't allow a home run. He gives up very few extra base hits, so his strength plays directly against a Phillies strength.

Enjoy!

The Rays win 9-8 in a game that was a lot of fun to watch. Both teams battled all the way, each earning multiple leads, each staging multiple comebacks. The starters pitched poorly, the Rays bullpen got off to a bad start but recovered, and the Red Sox relievers were magnificent until Timlin showed his age. The Red Sox drew ten walks in the game, but the Rays only managed one until waiting out Timlin for three in the 11th. The series is even, although Boston is as good at home as the Rays. The Red Sox hope their home field advantage keeps them in Boston throughthe first two games of the World Series. The ALCS resumes Monday night.

Mike Timlin comes in to pitch the bottom of the eleventh. He'll face Navarro, Gross and Bartlett.

Update: Navarro walks on a 3-2 pitch. Good eye by Dioner. Fernando Perez pinch runs.

Update: Sorry, it's Zobrist, not Gross. Zobrist came in a few innings ago.

Update: Zobrist intends to bunt, but Timlin can't get the ball in the strike zone. Ben walks on five pitches. The Red Sox pitching coach gets thrown out for aguing the ball two call from the bench. It was very close.

Update: Maddon starts the runners. Bartlett grounds one to third, but the only play is at first. It's not a sacrifice, but it works just the same. Timlin intentionally walks Iwamura to bring up Upton.

Update: Timlin is having trouble getting the ball over the plate, but Upton swings at the first two pitches to go down 0-2. He hits a fly ball down the rightfield line, not too deep, but Drew can't throw out Perez at the plate. The Rays win 9-8! Tampa Bay is now 7-0 in one-run games against the Red Sox this season, 6-0 in at the Trop.

The teams will play three in Boston.

Dan Wheeler get the first out, but Lowrie walks for the third time in the game. That brings up J.D. Drew and brings in David Price to pitch.

Update: Price walks Drew. The Red Sox have the go-ahead run in scoring position.

Update: Price paints the outside corner to strike out Kotsay looking. Crisp is coming up, three for five in the game.

Update: Crisp grounds to third to end the inning. The Rays get another chance to win with a run.

Pedoria, Ortiz and Youkilis goes down in the tenth as Wheeler pitches over two innings for the first time in two years. The Rays get another chance to win with a run.

Update: Crawford lines a pitch off Papelbon, but the Rays go down in order anyway. This one goes to 11.

Bartlett, Iwamura and Upton are scheduled to bat in the ninth.

Update: Masterson comes in to face Bartlett.

Update: Bartlett works the count full then grounds out to Youkilis. Iwamura's turn.

Update: Iwamura hits one to the right of Pedroia. It looks like it might be a close play, but Dustin bobbles it and Iwamura gets an infield hit. B.J. Upton bats.

Update: Upton strikes out swinging. That bring up Carlos Pena and brings in Jonathan Papelbon to pitch.

Update: Pena strikes out to send the game into extra innings. The 2-3-4 hitters are due up for the Red Sox in the 10th. Along with Bay in the five spot, they 've generated all the runs for the Red Sox tonight.

J.D. Drew pinch hits to lead off the ninth.

Update: Drew flies out to center. Kotsay bats.

Update: Kotsay strikes out. Coco Crisp is up with two hits on the night.

Update: Crisp hits one deep to centerfield, and Upton doesn't read it right. The ball lands over his head and bounces over the fence for a double. That brings up Ellsbury with a chance to give the Red Sox a lead with a hit.

Update: Wheeler strikes out Ellsbury, leaving Crisp at second. One run wins the game as the Rays come up in the bottom of the ninth.

Pedroia singles chasing Chad Bradford and Ortiz fights off a number of pitches to eventually draw a walk off Trevor Miller. Joe Maddon goes the to bullpen again for Youkilis in the eighth.

Update: Dan Wheeler comes in and gets Youkilis to ground into a 6-4-3 double play. Pedroia is at third with two outs. They're going to pitch to Bay.

Update: Wheeler throws it over everyone's head and Pedroia scores on the wild pitch. Navarro had a chance to make a throw to the plate, but he flubbed it. Jason Bay walks and the inning continues. The game is tied at eight.

Update: Lowrie flies out and the Rays come up in the bottom of the ninth looking for a run to take back the lead. The Red Sox 2-5 hitters have scored all eight runs and driven in the seven that resulted in RBI.

Update: Okajima retires the side in order in the bottom of the eighth. The Red Sox send up the bottom of the order in the ninth.

The Red Sox get an infield hit but fail to score in the top of the seventh. It's only the fifth time in 13 half innings that one of the teams failed to score.

Update: The bullpens are getting it together as the Rays go down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the seventh. The Rays lead 8-7 going to the eighth.

Jason Bartlett beats out an infield single. When I watched it live, I thought he was obviously safe, but on the replay the play was much closer than I thought. The ump could have called that one either way.

Update: Barlett reaches second, but that's as far as he gets as the Rays continue to lead 8-7 after six innings.

Pedroia walks, Youkilis and Bay single, and the 2-5 hitters for Boston pick up two more hits, one more run scored and one more RBI. They've driven in and scored all seven Red Sox runs. That's all the Red Sox get, however, as the Rays lead 8-7 going to the bottom of the sixth.

My daughter is blaming me for the Red Sox trailing because I'm wearing this to keep warm tonight (our furnace is still out of commission).

I didn't know my wardrobe had so much power!

B.J. Upton walks with one out. He then steals second and uses his speed to score on a Carlos Pena single just by Pedroia, shifted into the outfield. B.J. had to hold up because it was a line drive, but as soon as it hit he turned on the after burners and beat the throw home easily. The Rays come back for the third time tonight, tying the game at six in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: Evan Longoria picks up his third hit of the game, ending up on third with double down the leftfield line and an advance on the throw to the plate. Pena makes a nice slide to the inside of the infield as the throw goes a bit wide up the line.

Josh Beckett is done. I was very surprised he got to face Longoria for a third time. Tampa Bay takes a 7-6 lead.

Update: Lopez comes in a gives up a single to Crawford, a shot through the drawn in infield. The Rays are now up 8-6 and Boston makes another pitching change.

Update: Delcarmen enters the game and Aybar bats for Floyd. I'm not sure I understand this. Both are left-handed batters, and the way things are going in this game, the Red Sox can easily come back. With Aybar becoming the designated hitter, he's not really available if the Rays need an infielder later in the game.

Update: Manny Delcarmen induces two fly ball outs, and the teams go to the sixth with the Rays leading 8-6.

Scott Kazmir gives up another shot to Dustin Pedroia, and one out later Kevin Youkilis takes him deep. Each starter now has allowed three home runs and five runs in the game. The 2 through 5 hitters in the Red Sox lineup are five for nine with two walks. They've driven in and scored all five runs. The game is tied at five in the fifth inning.

Update: Balfour comes into the game and Jason Bay takes him deep for a 6-5 Red Sox lead. The 2-5 hitters add another run and another RBI. That ties a post-season record for most home runs in a game, seven.

Update: After Balfour walks two, J.P. Howell comes in and gets the last two outs. The Rays find themselves behind for the third time this game. The other two times they were able to score.

Cliff Floyd hits the back wall in centerfield as the Rays take a 5-3 lead. That's three home runs in the game allowed by Josh. He gave up four to Milwaukee in May, but that's the only time this season he allowed more than two. I'm surprised at this point that Josh is still in the game.

Update: Cubs f/x notes a drop in Beckett's velocity since returning from the disabled list. I haven't been watching closely tonight, but the two fast balls I noticed this inning were 92.

B.J. Upton, the Rays number two hitter, answers Dustin Pedroia's home run with one of his own. He blasts the ball deep into the leftfield bleachers to tie the game at three.

Beckett has now allowed six home runs to the Rays this year, accounting for eight of the 12 Rays runs scored against him.

Update: Longoria hits a long line drive off the wall in left, nearly identical to Bay's double in the first. The Rays have the go-ahead run at second with two out.

Update: Crawford delivers a single into right-center that plates Longoria and puts the Rays up 4-3. Tampa Bay is showing the resilience in this game we saw against the White Sox.

Update: Crawford gets picked off first. The Rays lead 4-3 after three innings.

Correction: Changed it to the right Upton.

Pedroia homers off Kazmir on a 3-2 pitch to put the Red Sox up 3-2. The pitch was low in the strike zone, and Dustin did a nice job of compressing himself to get the ball then uncoiling to drive it out. Rickey Henderson was good at that.

Ortiz follows with his second walk of the game, and Kazmir continues to have trouble with the middle of the Red Sox lineup.

Update: Three fly balls end the inning, and the Rays find themselves down 3-2 in the middle of the third.

Beckett gives up a single to Navarro in the second, but strikes out the other three batters. That gives him four for the game. The Rays work him a little bit more in the inning, as Beckett is now up to 42 pitches. It looks like the bullpens could play a big role in this game.

Scott Kazmir retires the Red Sox in order in the second. He used just 13 pitches.

Josh Beckett just struck out B.J. Upton for the second out of the first inning on a very pretty pitch. I would love to have seen where it caught the plate, however. They're playing in a dome, why doesn't TBS have a camera directly above home plate so we can see pitches from that angle? That was always a favorite angle of mine when broadcasts used to do that in Toronto.

Carlos Pena doubles to left to create a two-out threat for Tampa Bay.

Update: Longoria crushes a 3-1 pitch into the leftfield stands and the Rays come back to tie the game at two.

In the pre-game show, Cal Ripken talked about Longoria jumping at the ball, not staying back. Evan stayed back on that one.

Update: Crawford grounds out to short to end the inning. Still, Beckett used a little more than half the pitches Kazmir did, 20 to Scott's 38.

Scott Kazmir of the Rays starts Jacoby Ellsbury off with a strike.

Update: Ellsbury goes down swinging.

Update: Ortiz walks for the first base runner of the game. Youkilis is up with two out.

Update: Youkilis hits a solid line drive to left for a single. He's now 8 for 23 in the post season.

Update: Jason Bay hits a double off the wall in the leftfield corner to plate both runners. Boston leads 2-0.

That at bat is a great example of why Kazmir is such a frustrating pitcher. He got ahead of Bay 0-2. With that count he should be able to put him away. He wastes one way outside, then throws two pitches that miss by a wide margin to bring the count to 3-2. In other words, he didn't throw any of the next three pitches close enough to make Bay think about swinging. He pitches had no purpose. He didn't even try to come inside to force Bay off the plate to set up a pitch on the outside corner. On 3-2, he just put the ball over the plate and Bay crushed it. It looks like there is no plan out there.

Lowrie follows with a walk. Scott has already thrown 34 pitches.

Update: Varitek strikes out to end the first. The Red Sox get off to an early 2-0 lead. It should be noted the White Sox also scored two runs off Kazmir in the first inning of game two of the ALDS, but the Rays came back to win that game.

Coco Crisp replaces J.D. Drew in Saturday night's Red Sox lineup:

Drew is 1 for 7 with three strikeouts and a walk in his career against Tampa Bay starter Scott Kazmir. Crisp is hitting 9 for 30 against Kazmir with three doubles. That, really, is what it came down to.

"I really wanted Coco to play," Francona said. "I didn't want to take [Jacoby] Ellsbury out of the leadoff spot. So we can have J.D. sitting over there kind of knowing that they're going to use Balfour. Maybe at one of the most pivotal points, having J.D. sitting over there will make them think twice. Maybe it won't. I just think, [Kazmir] is so tough on lefties, we had to play a lefty more than we would like. But I don't want Ellsbury out of the leadoff spot."

Both are real small sample sizes. Drew, as a lefty, owns a higher career OBA and slugging percentage against lefties than Crisp does as a righty. Maybe there is something about Kazmir that works to a Drew weakness, but I'd rather have J.D. in there.

One caveat is that Francona knows how to use batter vs. pitcher data. He often goes to video and looks at why the hitters are doing well or poorly against a particular pitcher. I can believe Terry saw something that he didn't like in the Drew/Kazmir matchup.

The Red Sox and Rays send Josh Beckett and Scott Kazmir to the mound in game two of the ALCS. Even with Beckett's poor start in the ALDS against the Angels, he still brings a 2.09 career post-season ERA into tonight's matchup. Beckett posts an impressive 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the playoffs. Considering that his career regular season mark is bit under 9.0, and the playoff competition is supposed to be the cream of the crop, that's an amazing number.

Beckett handled the Rays very well this season, making five starts against them for a 2.06 ERA. In 35 innings, he walked just five but struck out 37. He did give up four home runs, accounting for five of the nine runs he allowed to Tampa Bay. If you remove his innings against the Rays from his record, Beckett posted a 4.52 ERA against everyone else. The Rays kept his ERA miserable instead of horrible.

Kazmir won his first post-season start, although he was not dominating. In 5 1/3 innings he allowed eight hits and stuck out just four. He got off to a great start this season after he returned from injury, but the last three months his ERAs were over four as he started to walk batters again. That's not a great way to approach the Red Sox offense.

Boston, indeed, took advantage of Kazmir's walks this season. In four starts, he lasted a total of 18 innings, walking and striking out 14. Couple that with six home runs and the Red Sox hung a 9.00 ERA on Scott. Given the relative success of the two pitchers against the ALCS opponent, the Red Sox should be heavy favorites tonight.

Enjoy!

The Red Sox go quietly in the ninth. Crawford, Floyd and Navarro will try to get something going against Jonathan Papelbon.

Update: Crawford swings and misses three times and goes down on strikes. He had no chance of catching up to Papelbon's pitches.

Update: Floyd gets ahead 2-1 but pops up to third base. Two down. The game belongs to Navarro now.

Update: On a 1-2 count Navarro swings at a pitch in the dirt and the Rays lose 2-0.

Both starters pitched very well. Matsuzaka got into trouble in the first, but Upton just missed a pitch. Later in the game, Longoria and Pena each got the green light with men on and a 3-0 count, and both missed squaring up the ball. Great job by Dice-K and the bullpen getting outs on pitches out of the strike zone tonight.

The Red Sox win back the home field advantage, just as they did in the ALDS. So far, their regular season results against these teams hasn't translated to the post season.

The Rays have shown a great deal of resilience in the playoffs so far. We'll see if they can come back for a win tomorrow.

Two singles, one of the infield variety, chase Matsuzaka from the game in the eighth inning. Okajima comes in to face Carlos Pena.

Update: Pena swings at a 3-0 pitch and flies out to right. Drew had to run a bit to get the ball but makes the catch no problem. Longoria comes up with men on first and second as the Red Sox make another pitching change.

Update: Masterson comes in and falls behind Longoria 2-0. He gets two strikes and then Longoria grounds into a double play. Nice job by Masterson and the Rays are down to three outs.

With one on and one out in the eighth, Howell relieves Shields and faces David Ortiz. Shields pitched a fine game, walking two and striking out six in 7 1/3 innings of work.

Update: Ortiz walks after a Pedroia steal. Youkilis comes up with men on first and second, and Youkilis is the only player with multiple hits in the game.

Update: Youkilis hits a line drive to left, and Crawford has the ball tick off his glove. The ball was catchable, but everyone advances two bases. Boston leads 2-0 with men at 2nd and 3rd and one out. The Rays defense let them down on that play.

Update: Drew gets hit by Balfour, Bay strikes out and Kotsa pops out. Against, the Red Sox have a chance to break the game open but come away with one run. They lead 2-0 and need six outs to win game one.

Crawford, Floyd and Navarro try to break up the no-hitter in the seventh. Derek Lowe pitched a no-hitter for Boston against Tampa Bay at Fenway, April 27, 2002.

Update: Carl Crawford lines a single into rightfield to start the seventh. Now that they've broken up the no-hitter, they need to see if they can string a few hits together for a run.

Update: Floyd does just that, dropping a fly ball between Bay and Ellsbury for a single, sending Crawford to third. A long fly ball from either of the next two batter ties the game.

Update: Navarro flies to left, but it's too shallow and Crawford doesn't attempt to score. One out for Gabe Gross.

Update: Gross gets ahead 3-1, but strikes out, foul tipping a low pitch into Varitek's glove. It's up to Bartlett.

Update: Bartlett grounds out to short. Both starters pitch out of jams in the seventh and the Red Sox still lead 1-0.

Drew and Bay single to start the seventh inning for Boston. Kotsay almost gets an excuse me hit, but Iwamura makes a nice play on a low pop-up.

Update: A strikeout and an pop out end the inning with no damage. The Rays come up in the bottom of the seventh still looking for their first hit.

Upton, Pena and Longoria face Matsuzaka in the sixth, Dice-K still working on a no-hitter.

Update: Upton popped out.

Update: Carlos Pena blisters the ball, but with the shift on, Pedroia fields it in the outfield. He makes a nice stop on a ball that hopped high and threw Carlos out at first.

Update: Longoria swings at a 3-0 pitch and flies out to Drew in foul territory in right. Matsuzaka is through six innings, not allowing a hit. He's thrown 89 pitches, ten more than Shields. It's still 1-0 Red Sox.

Jason Bay walks and Kotsay doubles down the leftfield line to start the fifth for the Red Sox. They have runners on second and third for Lowrie.

Update: Jed Lowrie flies out to deep rightfield, moving both runners up a base. The Red Sox draw first blood, and lead 1-0.

Update: The Rays bring the infield in, and Varitek hits a shot. It's right at Iwamura, however, and Kotsay has to hold third. Two out for Ellsbury.

Update: Ellsbury pops one into no-man's land between short and center. Bartlett goes back and makes an over the shoulder catch to end the inning. The Red Sox lead 1-0 while the Rays come up in the fifth still looking for their first hit.

The game is still scoreless after three innings. The Rays have drawn four walks, but still have not collected a hit off Dice-K. The Red Sox have a hit, but only two batters reached base, both in the first inning.

Update: Youkilis remains the only batter on either team with a hit as he singles in the fourth. Drew hits into a double play, however, to end the inning. Kevin now has half a cycle with a double and single.

Both pitchers settle down, each retiring the side in order in the second inning. Shields strikes out one, Matsuzaka Ks two.

Akinori Iwamura leads off against Daisuke Matsuzaka and draws a walk to start the bottom of the first.

Update: Upton gets a bit under a ball and flies out to center, but Pena draws a walk to put men on first and second with one out.

Update: Matsuzaka throws a pretty pitch inside to catch Longoria looking. Two down.

Update: Crawford walks to load the bases. I'm impressed Dice-K could walk Carl, whose career high in walks in 37.

Update: Cliff Floyd grounds out to end the inning. There was Matsuzaka's season in an inning. Lots of walks, no hits to move the runners. Both teams fail to take advantage of scoring opportunities, and the game goes to the second scoreless.

James Shields strikes out Jacoby Ellsbury to start Tampa Bay's first league championship series.

James Shields strikes out Jacoby Ellsbury to start Tampa Bay's first league championship series.

Update: Pedroia walks on a 3-2 pitch for the first base runner of the game. Shields kept the ball outside to Dustin.

Update: After Ortiz flies out, Youkilis lines down the rightfield line and the ball bounces into the stands for a double. If it stays in play, Pedroia scores easily from first. Drew is up with two men in scoring position.

Update: Drew strikes out, flailing at the last two pitches. The hit by Youkilis was his first off Shields. He was 0 for 17 coming into the game.

The Dodgers still trail 8-5 as they send up the heart of the order in the 9th inning. Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and James Loney are due to face Brad Lidge.

Update: Lidge walks Manny to start the ninth, but comes back to strike out Ethier. Manny takes second on the K.

Update: Lidge walks Loney. The Dodgers send up Matt Kemp as the tying run, men on first and second.

Update: Kemp strikes out. If the pattern holds, Garciaparra should draw a walk.

Update: Nomar swings and misses at the first pitch, which is just off the outside corner. The next two are no where near the strike zone, but Nomar swings and misses at both. The Phillies with 8-5 and take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. If the teams are evenly matched, the Phillies have about an 81% chance of advancing to the World Series.

So far this year, however, the home team has won every game of the ten played between the two clubs. The Dodgers need to hope that holds up over the next three games.

Clayton Kershaw starts the bottom of the seventh for the Dodgers. There was some talk about him starting game four. With him coming into this game, however, I bet Derek Lowe comes back on short rest for game four. He only threw 90 pitches on Thursday night. He would then be able to pitch on normal rest in game seven if the series goes that far.

The Phillies took out Myers after five innings. He didn't pitch well, but he sure hit well. His three RBI are the difference in the game. Chad Durbin gives up a hit but no runs in the sixth, and the Phillies still lead 8-5 going to the bottom of the inning.

Brett Myers grounds one slowly to third with two out in the bottom of the fourth, and beats it out for his third hit of the game. Rollins comes up with men on first and second.

Update: Rollins strikes out to end the fourth.

With two out, Furcal strikes out but reaches on a wild pitch. A single later, Manny Ramirez just clears the fence in left to cut the Phillies lead to 8-5. It appears Manny was jammed and just muscled it out. That's Manny's third home run of this post season and the 27th of his career. That's all the Dodgers get, however, as the teams go to the bottom of the fourth. I think this game is now officially a slugfest.

Burrell and Werth lead off the third with a single and a double, putting men on 2nd and 3rd. The Phillies now have seven hits in the game. Billingsley gave up 188 hits in 200 2/3 innings this season. Dobbs get intentionally walked to load the bases for Ruiz and Myers.

Update: Ruiz grounds to first, and Loney forces the runner at the plate. Nice play by Loney on a ball that wasn't hit particularly hard.

Myers then smacks a ball by Loney, just inside the first base line and two runs score. It's 6-2 Phillies, and Myers has driven in half the Phillies runs. That's it for Chad Billingsley.

Update: Chan Ho Park comes on for the second time in this series.

Update: Note that Myers's career high in RBI is 5 in 2005. He's picked up 1 or 0 in every other year.

Update: Myers is getting a good workout running in this game. After Park strikes out Rollins, Victorino doubles to right-center, and Myers scores all the way from first, a two-run triple for Shane. The Phillies lead 8-2.

Philadelphia hasn't hit for a high average so far in the post season, depending on extra-base hits to generate runs. Today, however, they're nine for seventeen with six singles.

Update: Joe Beimel takes over for Park.

Update: Chase Utley walks, bringing up Ryan Howard. For the second inning in a row, Howard is the ninth batter.

Update: Howard walks on a 3-2 count to load the bases. Nice job by Beimel, walking the two lefties he was brought into face. Neither Utley nor Howard has but the ball in play today as Chase walked three times and Ryan struck out twice.

Update: James McDonald enters on a double switch. Jeff Kent comes in to play second.

Update: McDonald strikes out Burrell to end the third. The Phillies put the Dodgers in a big hole, leading 8-2 after three.

Brett Myers walks two in the top of the third, but in between he gets Manny Ramirez to pop out. The Dodgers have two on and two out, and Loney delivers again as he singles up the middle to drive in Russell Martin. It's 4-2 Phillies.

Update: Matt Kemp hits a hot shot to third that Dobbs can't handle. The error loads the bases for DeWitt, who drove in the first run of the game.

Update: DeWitt strikes out to end the inning. It's 4-2 Phillies in the middle of the third.

Greg Dobbs singles in the bottom of the second with two out, and Carlos Ruiz rolls a double through the leftfield gap all the way to the wall, scoring Dobbs from first. Brett Myers then hits the first pitch for a line drive single up the middle, and the Phillies lead 2-1. Myers picked up four hits in the regular season, and he now has two in the post season.

Update: Jimmy Rollins reaches second on a slow roller up the middle. DeWitt can't get to the ball, then Kemp boots the ball in centerfield, kicking it away. I thought Myers might have hurt himself running to third, but he just slipped. Four straight hits with two out in the second. One more and the Phillies will have a nice lead.

Update: Victorino delivers a line shot to left, and the Phillies take a 4-1 lead.

Update: Billingsley only allowed four runs or more once in his last 16 starts.

Update: Utley walks as Billingsley is starting to have trouble finding the plate. This would be a bad spot for Chad to hang a pitch.

Update: Howard strikes out, as Billingsley does strike out three in the inning. He just couldn't get an out when the Phillies put the bat on the ball. Howard, with his second strikeout of the game, now has seven strikeouts in 17 at bats.

With Andre Ethier on first with none out, James Loney hits one deep to right. Like Manny's shot last night, it hits high on the wall, just missing a home run and Loney gets a double. Ethier had to hold up, so that puts runners on 2nd and 3rd, the Dodgers first scoring threat of the game.

Kemp strikes out, however, for the first out.

Update: Blake DeWitt grounds out to first, pushing across the first run of the game. De Witt now has an RBI in each game of the NLCS and three in the post season.

Update: Billingsley flies out to right. The Dodgers get a run, but they can't get the big hit to bust open the inning. Still they take a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the second.

Brett Myers gets Rafael Furcal to fly out to start game two of the NLCS.

Update: Martin strikes out swinging. Bases empty for Manny, just the way the defense wants it.

Update: Myers throws ball two behind Manny's back. The Dodger dugout didn't like it, but Manny didn't react. Myers comes back from the 2-0 count to strike out Ramirez swinging. A very strong inning for the Phillies starter.

Update: Billingsley strikes out two as the Phillies fail to score in the first.

Take a late, long lunch if you live in Los Angeles to watch the Dodgers try to even the series with the Phillies, game time 4:35 PM EDT, 1:35 PM PDT. Chad Billingsley takes the hill against Brett Myers. Chad didn't hang many pitches this season, allowing just 14 home runs in 200 2/3 innings. He owns a fairly impressive record in day games in 2008, going 5-3 with a 2.17 ERA in 10 starts. In his 62 1/3 innings of day ball, he allowed just one home run and struck out 70 batters. The Phillies were selective against Chad in his one start against them his year, drawing five walks in six innings.

Brett Myers comes off a seven-inning, two-hit performance against the Brewers. He only struck out four in the game while walking three, so it wasn't a stellar performance. Very few of the Brewers balls in play found holes. In the strikeout category, Brett's LDS start was more in line with his last three regular season starts in which his strikeouts suddenly fell off. Florida and Atlanta were able to take advantage of that to pound him for 19 hits in 8 1/3 innings, but surrounding those were two starts against Milwaukee in which he allowed a total of four hits in 16 innings despite striking out eight. If his strikeouts are off again today, I suspect the Dodgers will do a better job with balls in the play than the Brewers.

In the night cap of the LCS double header, the Red Sox and Rays open their series with Daisuke Matsuzaka facing James Shields. Matsuzaka pitched a Nolan Ryan like year. He struck out a ton of batters, walked a high amount but was nearly unhittable. By keeping the ball in the park, he limited the damage done by the walks. Eight of his 12 home runs allowed came with men on base, however, as did 20 of his 43 extra base hits allowed.

That's pretty much the way he pitched against the Rays. In three starts, he posted a 3.00 ERA, good for a 1-0 record. He only lasted 15 innings however, as he struck out 17, but walked eleven. The Rays hit him a bit better than the average club with a .228 BA, but only managed two extra base hits for a .298 slugging percentage.

Shields pitched very well at Tropicana Field this season. Nine of his fourteen wins came at home, and his ERA dropped well over two runs compared to his road pitching. (I actually wonder why he's not starting games two and six, so he can pitch twice at home.) While he gives up many fewer hits at home, his home runs allowed really drop. He allows 14.8 per 200 innings at home, 32.1 away. That rate is less than half of what he allowed on the road.

The home/road split comes to the fore against Boston. At Fenway, he allowed 11 earned runs 4 2/3 innings, although part of that was coming out after fighting with Coco Crisp. At home against the Red Sox, Shields went 2-0, one of those a shutout. In 15 1/3 innings he allowed just seven hits and two runs, striking out 12 and walking two. The location of this game is a strong suit for both pitchers, so I expect a tough contest tonight.

Enjoy!

Correction: Fixed the game one start time.

The Phillies defeat the Dodgers 3-2 to take a one game lead in the NLCS. The offense of both teams revolved around extra-base hits. Three doubles led to the two Los Angeles runs, while homers by Utley and Burrell plated the three Philadelphia runners. If Manny's double in the first had been two feet higher, this game would be tied.

Cole Hamels pitches seven strong innings, striking out eight and walking just two. He threw 67% of his pitches for strikes. Lowe threw the same number of balls, but 20 fewer strikes in his 5 1/3 innings of work.

Shane Victorino reaches second on an error by Rafael Furcal. Chase Utley follows and Lowe gets a pitch up in the strike zone, and Chase crushes it. The ball goes into the rightfield stands and the Dodgers and Phillies are tied at two.

Update: Pat the Bat follows one out later with a homer to left and the Phillies lead 3-2.

At the end of the fifth, Lowe looked like he was struggling. In the sixth, the ball stopped sinking and started flying out of the park. Lowe had only given up two home runs in his previous 11 starts, including the NLDS. He's out of the game in favor of Chan Ho Park.

Carlos Ruiz and Cole Hamels, the 8th and 9th hitters for the Phillies, single with two out in the bottom of the fifth, bringing up Rollins.

Update: Lowe goes to a full count against Rollins, but Jimmy flies out to left. Still 2-0 Dodgers after five innings.

Derek Lowe continues to post a high ball to strike ratio, but the Phillies can't do much with it. Lowe's only walked one batter and allowed two hits. He just picked up his first two strike outs in the fourth, so he's improving as the game continues.

By the way, Blake DeWitt looks like a very good second baseman. He's made two nice plays this evening.

Matt Kemp doubles to lead off the fourth, and two outs bring him around to score. The three doubles are hurting Hamels tonight. Cole gave up 44 two-base hits in the regular season, tied for 15th most in the NL. The Dodgers lead 2-0 in the middle of the fourth.

Derek Lowe isn't that sharp tonight, with 15 of his 35 pitches called for balls. He's missing low, however, and getting the Phillies to hit the ball on the ground, good for five outs including a GDP. Hamels is controlling the strike zone better, with only 12 of his 35 pitches called balls.

Andre Ethier bats second tonight and hits a one-out gap double. Manny swings at a pitch high and misses, then creams one to centerfield that misses being a home run by a couple of feet, hitting high off a fence in straight away center. The Dodgers get off to a 1-0 lead in the first.

If you get to see Manny's hit in slow motion, it's a great example of keeping your eye on the ball as it meets the bat.

Update: Hamels walks Loney but gets out of the inning with no more damage.

The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Red Sox and Rays, opponents in the ALCS.

AL Ranks

2008	Red Sox	Rays
Runs/Game	5.22 (3rd)	4.78 (9th)
Batting Avg.	.280 (2nd)	.260 (13th)
On-Base Average	.358 (1st)	.340 (6th)
Slugging Pct.	.447 (3rd)	.422 (8th)
ERA	4.01 (4th)	3.82 (2nd)
Strikeouts/9 IP	7.4 (1st)	7.1 (5th)
Walks/9 IP	3.4 (9th)	3.2 (8th)
HR/200 IP	20.3 (4th)	22.8 (9th)

Looking at the stat comparison, I don't see how anyone could pick the Rays to win this series. Tampa Bay holds a slight edge in pitching. Their ERA beats the Red Sox ERA by 0.19 runs, although Boston ranks better at striking out batters and preventing home runs. The same thing was true against the White Sox, better ERA, without better pitching stats. Again, the Rays did a better job than the Red Sox of turning balls put in play into outs. From the White Sox/Rays preview:

The answer lies in the players on the field behind the pitchers. The defensive efficiency record (DER) measures the ability of fielders to turn a batted ball into an out. The Rays DER in 2008 came in at .710, the best in the majors. Chicago posted a .686 mark, 9th in the AL. Think of it as the difference between a team that bats .290 and one that bats .314. For every 200 balls in play, the Rays are going collect about five more outs. In fact, the rise of the Rays DER from 13th in the AL in 2007 to first in 2008 accounts for a large part in the drop in team ERA. The Rays can afford to allow more balls in play than the White because they are better at turning them into outs.

The Red Sox are better defensively than the White Sox. Their .699 DER ranked fourth in the AL, but a few more balls do trickle through the Boston defense than through the Tampa Bay fielders. The bottom line, both these staffs are capable of shutting down the opposition.

The difference comes on offense. Boston hits for average, gets on base extremely well and owns plenty of power. The Rays do a good job of getting on base, and that's about it. That's why the Red Sox outscored their opponents by 48 more runs than the Rays. The reason the Rays finished ahead of the Boston was due to their record in one run games. Tampa Bay finished 29-18 in those close contests, while the Red Sox were 22-23. If the Rays go .500 in one-run games, Boston finishes in first place in the AL East easily.

In fact, if the Rays play .500 in one run games against the Red Sox, Boston finishes in first place. Look at the run difference in the series between the two teams:

Head to Head

2008	Red Sox	Rays
Wins	8	10
Runs/Game	4.8	3.7
Walks	78	74
Home Runs	18	18
Hits	152	142

The Red Sox should have gone 11-7 against Tampa Bay, not 8-10. In one run games, the Rays were 6-0 against Boston.

The easy explanation was that the Rays were lucky in these games, but that may not be the whole story. While the pitching staffs as a whole are pretty even, the Rays trot out a better bullpen. Against the Red Sox, Rays relievers held the Boston batters to a .227/.350/.349 line. They bent, walking batters, but didn't break, preventing the hits that might drive in those walks. Rays batters posted a .246/.357/.369 line against the Boston bullpen, just a bit better. The trick for the Rays was hanging with the Boston starters, so the bullpen could keep the game close late, and the luck could happen.

Note, however, that luck sometimes balances. The Red Sox put 14 more men on than the Rays via a hit or walk over the course of the 18 game series. That doesn't seem to be enough to justify a 20 run difference in Boston's favor. With runners in scoring position, the Red Sox hit .242 head-to-head, while the Rays hit .176. That poor a batting average in those situation is also a bit of luck, just in the opposite direction. If the Rays get a few more hits in those key situations, then the run difference between the teams is a lot lower, and they look more evenly matched.

One non-statistical aspect of this series; the Rays and the Red Sox have a healthy dislike for each other due to a history that led to the Crisp/Shields fight. I doubt it will make a difference in who wins, but we're sure to see some hard-nosed play whenever there's a chance for a collision.

I really wanted to pick the Rays to win the ALCS. Despite their record in close games, despite their home field advantage, Boston deserves to be the favorite in this series. As we saw in their ALDS against the Angels, the Red Sox come in extremely well prepared for their opponents. I don't see a huge advantage, however. The Rays luck this season worked both for and against them, especially against Boston. Flipping a coin might be just as good. The Red Sox are my favorite, but with just a 51% chance of winning the series.

Red Sox batters vs. Rays, 2008.

Rays batters vs. Red Sox, 2008.

Red Sox pitchers vs. Rays, 2008.

Rays pitchers vs. Red Sox, 2008.

The Dodgers and Phillies kick off the NLCS tonight with Derek Lowe facing Cole Hamels. Lowe picked up the win in his LDS start against the Cubs. Coming off a great September, Lowe continued to pound the strike zone, collecting six Ks in his six inning of work with just one walk. The Cubs hit him however, with seven hits and a home run, the long ball something he didn't see the previous month. Of course, he spent September toiling against fairly weak offenses. Lowe did get the win in his only start against the Phillies this season, allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings. He won't be facing Kyle Kendrick, however.

Cole Hamels totally shut down the Brewers offense in his LDS start. He was efficient and unhittable as he allowed just two hits and a walk to the Brewers while striking out nine. Over eight innings, he threw 101 pitches, 67 for strikes. (Brad Lidge threw 1/3 the amount of Hamels pitches in the ninth, 35.) The Dodgers are a better team against left-handed pitchers, with a 15 rise in batting average, 24 points in OBA and 29 points in slugging percentage. Lowe handled the Dodgers well this season, giving up four earned runs in 14 innings with 12 strikeouts and two walks. Hamels weakness, however, is the home run. He puts so few batters on base, however, that he posted ERAs under three in five of the six month he pitched this season.

Enjoy!

The Phillies Phanatic launches an attack ad against the Dodgers. Just what are they dodging?

Terry Francona set the Red Sox rotation today:

We're going to go, Daisuke, Becket, Lester, Wakefield now. We reserve the right if something crazy happens in the middle to make a change but that's the way we're set up to go. The reasoning is actually pretty simple. I think I thought this was how it would shakeout even before we did the media after we beat Anaheim. I just needed to take the proper time to talk it through. It gives people rest, not too much rest not too little. It's probably the best way where we don't have one guy going on 8, one guy going on regular. Keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest at this time of year is huge and we'll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much. And the guys that pitch 1, 2, and 3 are lined up for 5, 6, and 7. Nobody's going to throw 3 so having those three twice is really what's important regardless of how it's lined up.

It seems Terry isn't too concerned about the Home/Road breakdown, or he'd pitched Matsuzaka in games two and six.

The following table compares major batting and pitching stats for the Dodgers and Phillies with NL ranks:

NL Ranks

2008	Dodgers	Phillies
Runs/Game	4.32 (13th)	4.93 (2nd-T)
Batting Avg.	.264 (5th)	.255 (10th)
On-Base Average	.333 (6th)	.332 (7th)
Slugging Pct.	.399 (13th)	.438 (2nd)
ERA	3.68 (1st)	3.88 (4th)
Strikeouts/9 IP	7.4 (5th)	6.7 (12th)
Walks/9 IP	3.0 (2nd)	3.3 (5th-T)
HR/200 IP	17.0 (1st)	22.1 (7th)

This series matches the strength of the Phillies lineup, their power, against the strength of the Dodgers pitching staff, their ability to prevent home runs. Against the Brewers the Phillies lineup lived up to their season stats. They didn't do a great job of hitting for average or getting on base, but many of their hits wound up going for extra bases. They moved the few men who reached base a great distance with those long hits.

The Dodgers, however, led the NL in preventing home runs. In their sweep against the Cubs, LA pitchers gave up just one dinger. If the Dodgers can reduce the pop of the Phillies hitters, they reduce Philadelphia to a feeble offensive team.

One large caveat to the Dodgers strength is that it's mostly a park effect. Los Angeles pitchers allowed 49 home runs at home, 74 on the road. The Phillies can sting the ball in any park with 266 extra-base hits at home and 275 on the road. Shutting down Philadelphia's power is not a given. As you can see in the home/road split for the Dodgers pitchers against the Phillies, it was the singles and walks, not the extra base hits that suffered in Los Angeles. That leads us to the very interesting head-to-head record for the teams:

Head to Head

2008	Dodgers	Phillies
Wins	4	4
Runs/Game	3.4	5.4
Walks	28	30
Home Runs	7	9

Ryan Howard is a perfect example of how the Dodgers both succeeded and failed against the Phillies offense. LA pitchers kept Howard off base as he batted .113 with a .250 OBA. His four hits, however, counted two doubles and two home runs, good for nine RBI. If the Dodgers can't stop the power, they can't stop the Phillies.

Both teams swept their opponent at home. All four games in Dodger Stadium were decided by two runs or less. All four games in Philadelphia were decided by three runs or more. Since all eight took place in August, it's a good proxy for how the LCS will play out, since the players for both teams were in place.

The Phillies also took advantage of the Dodgers weakness against left-handed batters. The link above also shows the Dodgers pitchers against left and right handed Phillies, and lefties hit about 40 points higher and slugged about 80 points higher. In fact Joe Torre is thinking of starting Clayton Kershaw in game four to counter that weakness.

I also like the way the Phillies rotation sets up for this series. Hamels and Myers, the power pitchers, go at home where keeping men off base is important. Moyer and Blanton, the control pitchers, take the mound at Dodger Stadium where runs are more scarce.

The Dodgers do have one thing going for them that they lacked for most of the regular season, Rafael Furcal. Los Angeles' record stood at 18-14 after games on May 5th, the last time Furcal would play until September 24. This season, he brought a high on-base average to the Dodgers leadoff spot, .434 batting first this season. Overall, the Dodgers leadoff hitters posted a .351 OBA, showing how much Rafael contributed. His .467 LDS OBA helped set the table even better for Ramirez and Ethier.

The two teams are very close. The Dodgers pitchers are hot, but the Phillies pitchers are also very good. Utley, Howard and Burrell are a match for Manny, Ethier and Martin. Furcal gives the Dodgers a bit of an edge on offense, as he's a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. The Dodgers also dropped their unproductive players, as you're not seeing much of Kent, Pierre, Jones and Garciaparra in the playoffs. Charlie Manuel platoons well, however, so I suspect he'll win the individual matchups.

It's a close series to call. The Phillies home field advantage in my mind gives them a slight edge. I'm picking the Phillies with a low probability of winning, 52%.

Dodgers batters vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies batters vs. Dodgers, 2008.

Dodgers pitchers vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies pitchers vs. Dodgers, 2008.

Phillies Nation is a bit peeved that game two of the NLCS starts at 4:15 PM EDT on a Friday afternoon. I'm just happy the TBS/Fox split allows us to see both games, instead of flipping between Fox and FX between pitches.

Lance Berkman breaks two ties with one swing of the bat. With the Astros-Giants game tied at seven in the top of the ninth, Lance leads off with a solo shot to put Houston on top 8-7. He also breaks the tie with Chase Utley for the major league lead in home runs. Berkman now leads with 15. Lance is 29 for 50 in May with seven doubles and seven home runs.

The Astros ruined a good start by Tim Lincecum. He struck out 10, but only lasted six innings. Erstad and Lee homered in the eighth to wipe out the Giants lead Erstad's three run shot tying the game at seven. The Astros have 17 home runs in May after hitting 30 in April. If they hold on for the win, they'll be in the wild card seat in the National League.

Paul Hoynes posts the game 7, especially the Skinner hold:

They trailed, 3-2, but Jake Westbrook was hot, and the offense, after two games of doing nothing, was stirring.

Kenny Lofton, with one out in the seventh, lifted a fly ball to short left field against Hideki Okajima. Shortstop Julio Lugo went back but dropped the ball as Lofton hustled into second. Franklin Gutierrez, fouling off two 1-2 pitches, sent a single past third.

It bounced hard off the grandstand in foul territory and back into left field where Manny Ramirez was waiting. Lofton was already at third, and the ball was still rolling in the outfield. The game should have been tied, but third base coach Joel Skinner stopped Lofton.

It was a mistake that will live in Indians postseason history right alongside Orel Hershiser losing his release point in Game 1 of the 1995 World Series.

All the momentum the Indians had been gathering was pointed to that moment. When it produced nothing, the Indians disappeared into the October night not to be seen again until mid-February in Winter Haven, Fla.

"It's a tough corner out there when the ball heads that way," said Tribe manager Eric Wedge. "It's tough to read if it's ricocheting back to the shortstop to left-center. I think it was just tough for him to read."

Having seen the play a few more times, Skinner's mistake was not realizing that Manny Ramirez switched personalities. The brilliant defender who nailed the throw to second base in Lofton's previous at bat went back to the auditioning for the role of Adbul-Jabbar in the remake of Airplane. Manny wasn't hustling after the ball. If Manny is going full steam toward it, holding Lofton was a much better call. But Manny was content to let the run score. Skinner had a split second to make his decision, and it cost the Indians a tie.

Then again, given the way the Red Sox pounded the ball in the eighth, it probably didn't matter.

After the first four games of the ALCS, the Red Sox held a slight lead on the Indians in OBA, .348 to .346. They weren't out-scoring Cleveland, however, due to double plays wiping out some of those base runners. Boston kept hitting into double plays, but over the last three games they put so many men on base that the DPs didn't hurt as much. For the series, the Red Sox posted a .395 OBA to the Indians .302, about a forty five point swing in both directions. With batters constantly reaching, mistakes by the Indians' pitchers turned into big innings and a big comeback for the Red Sox.

Josh Beckett wins the ALCS MVP. He's very humble, mentioning that there are a number of MVPs on the team and giving lots of credit to Varitek as his catcher. Beckett struck out 18 and walked just one in 14 innings, totally dominating the Indians. He'll face Francis in game one. Jeff has defeated two very good pitchers in the first two rounds, but he'll have his work cut out for him in game one of the World Series.

The Boston Red Sox win 11-2 and are going to the World Series. Pedroia and Youkilis hit big tonight, combining to go six for ten with seven RBI and five runs scored. They each doubled and homered. The top four hitters in the Red Sox lineup each posted OBAs over .400 and slugging percentage over .500 in the series.

The bullpen pitched four shutout innings giving up four hits but no walks. Matsuzaka gets the win, making two nations happy today. Teams down 3-1 forcing a seventh game are now 11-4. The Red Sox accomplished the feat this year by outscoring the Indians 30-5 over the last three games. Six of the seven contests in the series were decided by four runs or more, although game two and seven were close until the end.

It was a great series, with both teams looking unbeatable at times. I have a lot of sympathy for the Indians, I would have loved to see them end their World Championship drought. However, we have the top team in each league in run differential meeting in the World Series. It should be a good one. Congratulations to the Red Sox on a great comeback and winning the AL pennant!

The Cleveland season needs a miracle. Peralta, Lofton, and Gutierrez try to get something going.

Update: Peralta floats one into left for a single. They need a lot more of those.

Update: Lofton lines to left, where Ellsbury makes a nice sliding catch.

Update: Gutierrez flies out to center, then Blake hits one deep to the triangle, and Crisp makes a great catch to end the game. The Red Sox are going to the World Series!

Update: Crisp slammed into the wall, and limps off the field. Making the catch was more than worth the pain, I bet.

J.D. Drew follows a Lowell double with a hard single to center. Lowell scores the sixth run of the game for Boston extending the lead to four.

Drew and Matsuzaka each did a good job of saving their reputations the last two games.

So if the Red Sox hold on, do you give the MVP to Youkilis or Beckett?

Update: The Indians are falling apart here as Blake and Peralta go for a pop up down the leftfield line. The collide, and the ball lands fair. It bounces into the seats for a double, and Ellsbury is intentionally walked. The bases are loaded for Lugo.

Update: Lugo strikes out. Home Run Pedroia is up next.

Update: Pedroia finds the gap in left center and clears the bases with a double. Betancourt picks a bad night to fall apart on the mound, and the probability of the Red Sox winning this game just skyrocketted.

Update: Lewis comes in, and Youkilis hits one off the coke bottles above the monster seats. That's the third hit of the night for Kevin, and he's hitting .500 for the series with a .929 slugging percentage. It's 11-2 Boston.

Update: Ortiz strikes out. Papelbon needs to get three outs before he allows nine runs.

Okajima starts his third inning of work, and Sizemore bunts for a base hit to start the eighth.

Update: Cabrera lines one up the middle to put runners at first and second. Papelbon is coming on to try to get the first six out save of his career.

Update: Hafner has no chance as he swings at three pitches and misses two, including the third one.

Update: Martinez hits what should be a double play ball to second, but both Pedroia and Lugo can't get a handle on the ball, and they just get the runner at second. First and third with two out for Garko.

Update: Papelbon gets ahead of Garko 1-2, but then Ryan drives the next pitch to deep center. Ellsbury runs it down, for the third out and the Indians threat goes by the boards, as does the heart of the Cleveland lineup. The Red Sox are three outs away from the World Series.

Betancourt relievers Westbrook to start the bottom of the seventh. Westbrook pitched a good game, keeping the Indians in the contest. Now it's up to the bullpen and the offense to win the pennant.

Update: A bad two batters for Blake as he follows up the double play with an error to put Ellsbury at second with no one out.

Update: Dustin the wind as Pedroia smacks a ball into the monster seats for a 5-2 Boston lead. The Red Sox capitalize on an error when the Indians could not.

Update: Those are the first runs Betancourt allowed in the post season.

Update: That's all the Red Sox get, but it may be enough as Cleveland is down to six outs to score three runs.

The Red Sox make their first fielding mistake of the night. Lugo goes back into left on a pop up, calls off Ramirez, then drops the ball. Lofton winds up at second, the tying run.

Update: Gutierrez lines one right over the third base bag for a hit. Skinner holds up Lofton at third, thinking the carom off the wall was going right to Manny. Okajima then induces Blake to hit into a 5-4-3 GDP to end the inning. It's the first time they've retired Blake tonight. A bad call by an ump cost the Indians a run the last time Lofton was up, and now a conservative call by the third base coach may have done the same. I don't think you can fault Skinner too, much, however. That was a tough one to call.

For the second inning in a row, Westbrook retires the side in order, striking out two. He only struck out one over the first four innings.

Okajima relieves Matsuzaka to start the sixth. Dice-K threw 88 pitches, 62 for strikes. After starting off efficient through the first two innings, the Indians did a better job of battling him over Daisuke's last three. He is in line to get the win.

Update: Okajima retires the side in order, getting two fly outs and a grounder.

Westbrook pitches his best inning of the night in the fifth, retiring the side in order for the first time. He struck out both Youkilis and Ramirez, his second and third Ks of the game.

Kenny Lofton smacks one off the leftfield wall leading off the fifth, and Manny plays the ball perfectly, throws a strike to second, and Lofton is called out. Unfortunately, it looks like Pedroia tagged the bag and not the runner, but Lofton didn't argue the play. It may have cost them a run as Gutierrez follows with a single. A very nice play by Manny, however.

Update: Blake gets another hit, and the bad call at second looms large. Matsuzaka faces Sizemore with two on.

Update: Sizemore hits a ball deep to center for a sacrifice fly. That makes the score 3-2 in favor of Boston. A close game again.

Update: Cabrera battle Matsuzaka, fouling off a number of pitches, but Dice-K wins as a swing and a miss end the inning. The 2-4 hitters for Boston are due up in the bottom of the inning.

Jake Westbrook has been a very frustrating pitcher for the Red Sox in this series. He just induced his sixth double play, the fifth with runners in scoring position. For the fourth inning in a row, the leadoff batter reached, but for the first time he doesn't allow a run. The Red Sox picked up nine hits in four innings, but only three runs.

Travis Hafner goes the other way and bangs a ball off the wall for a double. He's in scoring position with one out in the fourth and Victor Martinez up.

Update: Man, Martinez is slow. He hits one off Matsuzaka's glove, and Dice-K has forever to throw him out at first. Hafner is unable to advance.

Update: Garko battles Matsuzaka and Garko finally delivers an RBI double off the wall in left center. He stayed alive long enough for Matsuzaka to make a mistake, and Ryan crushed it. It's 3-1 Boston.

Update: Peralta grounds out to end the inning, but the Indians are on the board. Now then need to put a zero on the board in the bottom of the fourth.

Youkilis doubles, then scores on a ground out and a sacrifice fly. Westbrook gave up seven hits through three innings. I appreciate that he's not pitching terribly, but at this rate the Indians are going to lose 9-0. Cleveland might want to try the no-runs strategy in the fourth.

Casey Blake, the best hitter for Cleveland during the LCS, singles in the third with two out. But Matsuzaka picks up his second strikeout of the night against Sizemore to end the inning. The Indians are only one for eight putting the ball in play. They did work Daisuke more in that inning, getting his pitch count up to 44.

The Indians seem to be employing a one-run strategy on defense. The Red Sox get a double from Varitek and a single from Ellsbury, but Lugo hits into another rally killing double play. With none out, however, the Red Sox score a run. With six hits in two innings, you might expect the Indians to be in a bigger hole. Now it's up to the Cleveland offense to take the opportunity given by the defense.

Daisuke Matsuzaka threw just eight pitches in the second inning as he continues to work efficiently. Six up, six down through two innings for Cleveland.

David Ortiz is up with two on after two singles. He should bunt here because it's obviously going to be a close game. :-)

Update: Ortiz doesn't even square up, and Westbrook gets him to swing and miss at two pitches on his hands. One out for Ramirez.

Update: Ramirez hits a hard grounder right at Peralta, but the ball takes a giant hop when it hits the lip of the infield and goes over Jhonny's head. Pedroia scores from second and the Red Sox lead 1-0. They are 3 for 3 putting the ball in play tonight.

Update: Make it four for four as Lowell lines a single into left to load the bases for J.D. Drew.

Update: Another rally killer double play as Drew bounces the ball up the middle to Peralta. Interestingly, Westbrook got the two lefties he faced, but the four righties each collected a hit. During the regular season, lefties hit Westbrook better than righties.

Dice-K pitches a good first inning, getting the obligatory strikeout from Hafner. He also only used 13 pitches.

The pre-game show just pointed out that the closers haven't had a big role in this series. Since five of the six games were won by four runs or more, there's been almost no need for the saver to come in. Which is why when people ask me about the importance of a closer, I tell them it's more important to generate a big lead.

The sun won't come out tomorrow for one of these teams. The season for the Indians and Red Sox comes down to a warm night in Boston with their number three starters on the mound. Can Daisuke deliver? Can Westbrook's sinker sink the Sox? Will Wedge or Francona make a strategic blunder that turns victory into defeat? Will Pronk poke? Will Manny be Manny?

Westbrook handled the Red Sox much better than the Yankees. He didn't walk a batter in his start against New York, but the Yankees pounded the balls he put in the strike zone. Jake didn't try to be quite as fine against the Red Sox, walking three. Boston picked up hits against Jake, but by keeping the ball on the ground he induced three double plays, two of them with men in scoring position. The Red Sox need to try to get Westbrook to elevate his sinker so the Sox can hit line drives instead of ground balls.

The Red Sox committed to $100 million dollars too bring Matsuzaka to the United States, and the eyes of two nations are on him tonight. Red Sox Nation hopes to his first two post-season starts turn out to be flukes. There's nothing on Dice-K in the English language Japanese news yet. The big difference between Matsuzaka in the playoffs and during the regular season is his hits allowed. He held opponents to a .246 BA in the regular season, but they've hit .317 against him so far in the post season.

These finished the regular season even in wins, and the difference in the post season is Cleveland's one loss to the Yankees. The series so far saw big score differences in each game except the one pitched by these two starters. Westbrook and Matsuzaka approach the game differently, but they are evenly matched as well. I'm hoping for a close contest to end the AL season.

Enjoy!

In terms of strikeouts and reaching base on balls in play, the series between the Indians and Red Sox is going as predicted:

American League Championship Series, 2007

	Indians	Red Sox
AB + SF	211	211
Home Runs	8	8
Strikeouts	59	36
Fieldable Balls in Play	144	167
BABIP	.306	.323

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is defined as (Hits-HR)/(AB-(HR+K)) and gives a quick and dirty approximation of 1-DER. The Red Sox collected ten more hits in the series due to striking out less and playing better defense. Combined with thirteen more walks, Boston leads Cleveland in runs scored 40-30. However, Boston held the BABIP advantage through the first four games as well. Bad timing and double plays kept them from winning in three of those games.

Both managers talked a good game after Boston's game six victory:

"It just has to stop and it has to stop tonight," said Cleveland manager Eric Wedge. "They need to go to bed tonight with a clear head and think good thoughts. They have experienced a lot. It's another step for us, but it's not completely unchartered. We handle these things pretty well."

"We're excited," said Sox manager Terry Francona. "We'd be crazy not to be excited to have a Game 7 at Fenway. We get to play. I'm glad we're playing at home. As far as the game goes, the momentum will be with both starting pitchers. What happened tonight won't dictate tomorrow."

When I looked at this series I thought the Red Sox and Indians would split the matchups between the 1-2 starters, then take two out of three from Westbrook and Byrd. Boston's handled the Sabathia-Carmona combination just fine, but has yet to beat the 3-4 starters as they face Westbrook tonight.

Curt Schilling was certainly the man tonight. He pitched seven great innings, picking up five strikeouts without walking a batter. He also rested the bullpen for tomorrow as only Lopez and Gagne pitched in relief.

Drew, of course, fixed his reputation with the team. As Bill James said to us at the end of last Saturday's game, "the crowd was so tired, they forgot to boo J.D. Drew." They remembered to cheer his tonight.

Kudos to Aaron Laffey on the Cleveland side for saving their bullpen. He pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in his first appearance of the post season. He allowed just one hit and one walk.

Travis Hafner's offensive woes continue, as his 0 for 4 night reduced his batting average in the LCS to .130.

The team go into game 7 with a fairly even pitching matchup. I have a hard time believing that Jake Westbrook can fool the Red Sox hitters twice. However, Matsuzaka hasn't been over powering in the post season either. The series could easily come down to which bullpen pitches better, including Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and C.C.Sabathia. It should be exciting.

Correction: It was Lopez used in relief.

A Cleveland comeback is possible! Eric Gagne is in the game!

Update: Hafner gets his bat on the ball, but flies to center for the first out.

Update: Martinez grounds back to the box for the second out.

Update: Lowell shows some flair, bare-handing a grounder and throwing Garko out at first. We're getting a game seven.

Manny Ramirez drives in Kevin Youkilis with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth to make the score 11-2 in favor of Boston. That's nine RBI for Manny in the series.

Update: Lowell singles in a run, his seventh RBI of the series. A Cleveland comeback in this game is starting to look impossible.

Update: That's it for Boston. The Indians have three outs to get ten runs.

Garko triples leading off the seventh and scores on a sacrifice fly. Garko's having a good series, hitting .316 with a .474 slugging percentage.

Update: That's all they get in the seventh, and Schilling tips his hat to the crowd as he reaches the dugout. He walks none and strikes out five through seven innings. The Indians were 6 for 21 on balls in play, 5 for 20 on fieldable balls. The Red Sox defense played very well behind Schilling tonight.

Schilling strikes out Hafner for the second time tonight and the tenth time in the series. He swung at an eye level pitch that was also off the plate. He looks totally lost up there. He's been a huge offensive hole in the third spot for Cleveland, batting .136 with a .208 OBA.

Carmona just walked Ramirez and Lowell to bring up Drew with men on base again. Carmona has walked four so far tonight, and he's only in the third inning.

Update: Drew grounds a single into centerfield, extending the Red Sox lead to 5-1. That's it for Carmona as he leaves with no one out in the third and men on first and second. The two big guns for the Indians come up short in both their LCS starts.

Update: Ellsbury delivers a single against Perez and the Red Sox lead 6-1.

Update: Lugo doubles in two as the game moves into rout territory.

Update: It's gone from rout to Keystone Cops. Youkilis finally gets a ball out of the infield, banging one hard off the Green Monster. He gets in a run down between first and second. Carmona chases Kevin back toward first, then makes a throw that hits Kevin in the head and gets by the first baseman. Youkilis is safe, Pedroia scores, and the Red Sox lead 10-1. The WBC mercy rule will get invoked soon.

Update: Laffey finally gets the Indians out of the inning. But their nine run deficit is no laughing matter.

Pedroia goes long, hitting the wall for a double and Youkilis picks up his second infield hit of the night. But Ortiz grounds hard into a double play. The Red Sox set a record for DPs in an LCS with eleven. It's also their seventh rally killing double play, one with men in scoring position.

Victor Martinez leads off the second inning with a home run. That's his first home run of the LCS and the second of the playoffs. When Schilling pitcher for Arizona, he tended to give up a good number of home runs, but because he kept the bases empty, they tended to be solo shots. The Red Sox will gladly give up solo home runs as long as they hit theirs with runners on. Consider it revenge for game four.

The Red Sox are playing the short game, putting two men on without getting the ball out of the infield. Ortiz is up with men on first and second after two infield hits.

Update: Ortiz walks to load the bases. Manny must have cleaned his helmet a bit, since I can make out the B under all the pine tar.

Update: Nice job by Carmona, getting Manny to swing over a pitch low on the inside corner. One out.

Update: Lowell flies to shallow right on the first pitch, Pedrioa can't score. Two out.

Update: J.D. Drew just redeemed his season. Carmona fell behind 3-1, then Drew got all of a pitch down the middle of the plate, low enough that he could get a good upper cut on it. It was a laser into the camera well in centerfield, a grand slam to put the Red Sox up 4-0. Those are Drew's first RBI of the LCS.

Update: After a Varitek walk, Ellsbury grounds out to end the inning. Carmona was wild in the inning. On the other hand, he induced two ground balls to start the inning that his defense failed to turn into outs. In that sense, he did his job, the grounders were just well placed.

Curt Schilling records two ground outs and a strikeout as he retires the Indians in order in the first. Hafner strikes out for the ninth time in twenty LCS at bats.

Jacoby Ellsbury starts over Coco Crisp tonight for the Red Sox.

The Indians and Red Sox return to Fenway Park tonight for game six of the ALCS. In their last game at Fenway, with the same Carmona/Schilling matchup, the teams took 5 1/4 hours to play eleven innings. Get a pot of coffee on if you're going to watch the game tonight.

If Fausto Carmona starts, the game goes eleven innings. He pitched brilliantly against the Yankees, going nine innings but getting more support from the Canadian Soldiers than the Cleveland offense. The Red Sox, however, approached Fausto with selectivity, drawing five walks in just four innings, negating Carmona's five strikeouts over that period. In both cases, however, Cleveland pulled out the victory in extra innings.

Like Carmona, Schilling pitched much better in the ALDS than in his ALCS start. He shut out the Angels for seven innings, giving up just six hits and one walk. But in 4 2/3 innings against Cleveland, he allowed nine hits, including two home runs. Since his ability to strike out batters diminished this season, Curt survives by making good pitches in the strike zone. The Indians are getting a lot of hits on their balls in play this series, so that's a bad sign for Curt.

The teams are even at 28 run scored apiece over the first five games. Cleveland, however, hasn't received much production from their designated hitter, Travis Hafner. Compare his numbers to David Ortiz in the series so far:

2007 ALCS

Stat	Ortiz	Hafner
Batting Average	.400	.158
On-Base Average	.522	.238
Slugging Average	.733	.316

Hafner's also struck out eight times, while Papi's only gone down on strikes twice. If Travis hit close to his norms in this series, it might be over by now.

Enjoy!

Correction: Fixed the table headers.

My latest Sporting News column is online. It discusses the reasons the Rockies pulled off a sweep of the Diamondbacks.

Steve Keating in the Boston Globe pretty much ignores Manny's lack of hustle in game five. He plays up his accomplishments in the game:

Tied 1-1 in the third inning, Ramirez looked to blow open the contest when he connected on what appeared to be his fifth home run of the post-season.

But as he trotted to first base the ball dropped on top of the centre field wall and bounced fair holding the Boston slugger to a single, scoring David Ortiz.

Steve Buckley in the Herald mentions it with the right tone:

If you watched all of last night's game, you saw Coco Crisp [stats] fail to drop down a sacrifice bunt when the Sox really could have used one. You saw shortstop Julio Lugo [stats] trespass in front of second baseman Dustin Pedroia [stats] while pursuing a grounder up the middle, turning an out into a single. And, yes, you saw Manny Ramirez do some of his really cool home run stylin', except that he made a fool of himself when the ball inconveniently did not leave the park.

Once again, Manny gets a pass. I can't think of another player, especially a superstar, who is allowed to goof up like that. I remember Gil Hodges walking out to leftfield to remove Cleon Jones from a game after he didn't hustle. That lesson sunk in. I know Francona takes care of these things in the clubhouse, but that hasn't solved the problem. Maybe nothing can.

Josh Beckett pitched his third strong game of the post season. His ERA for his three starts stands at a Gibson like 1.17. On the offensive side, the Red Sox doubled the number of Cleveland hits, out-walked them 5-2, and slugged five extra-base hits to the Indians two. C.C. Sabathia had his control, but the Red Sox turned his pitches in the strike zone into hits. Now the series goes back to Boston for game six with Schilling vs. Carmona. We're finally seeing a competitive series this post season.

Jon Papelbon comes out to pitch the ninth for Boston.

Update: With one out, Garko doubles. The Indians are going to need a few more of those big hits to get back in this game.

Update: Peralta grounds out, moving Garko to third. It's up to Lofton to keep hope alive in this game.

Update: Lofton walks, bringing Gutierrez to the plate.

Update: Gutierrez hits one deep to center, but Crisp tracks it down and Boston wins 7-1.

Beckett finishes the eighth inning, picking up his eleventh strikeout of the game. That gives him a 26/1 K/BB ratio for the post season. Not bad.

The Red Sox load the bases against Perez in the top of the eighth. The top of the Red Sox line now faces Tom Mastny with one out and a chance to blow the game open.

Update: A passed ball by Martinez moves the runners up a base and makes the score 5-1 in favor of the Red Sox.

Update: Pedrioa walks to load the bases again.

Update: Youkilis walks in a run and Ortiz hits a sacrifice fly to make it 7-1 Boston. The Cleveland bullpen is having a rare bad inning.

After the war of words in his last at bat, Lofton grounds a ball back to the mound that goes through Beckett's legs for an error. That probably makes Lofton feel a bit better.

Update: Lofton is the only runner to reach in the inning as Beckett records his tenth strikeout. That's twenty five strikeouts for Beckett in twenty two post-season innings. He's also gotten the Red Sox through seven innings, meaning Boston doesn't need to deal with any of their second line relievers tonight.

C.C. starts the seventh and gives up a double and a triple to Pedroia and Youkilis respectively. That puts the Red Sox up 3-1. Sizemore almost got to Youk's hit, but it ticks off his glove. Sizemore looked for Gutierrez, which slowed him down enough that he doesn't make the catch. C.C. comes out of the game after 112 pitches, but two batters too late.

Update: Betancourt allows Ortiz to hit a long sacrifice fly for a 4-1 Boston lead.

On a 3-0 count, Beckett throws a strike to Lofton, who drops his bat trying to draw a ball call. On the next pitch, Lofton flies out, and Beckett yells something Kenny's way. As Lofton trots toward first, he's saying something to Josh. After reaching first and being called out on the catch, Lofton starts across the infield, and comes close to an altercation. The benches empty, but the umps control the situation and nothing much happens.

Update: With two outs, the Indians pick up two singles to put runners at first and third. The second one, by Sizemore, was as perfectly placed as you can put an infield hit, just over the glove of Beckett and too close to second base for either Pedroia or Lugo to make a play. Beckett, however, strikes out Cabrera to end the inning. That's seven Ks for Beckett on the evening, he's thrown 67 pitches through five. He's worked efficiently throughout the playoffs.

The Red Sox load the bases in the fifth on a single, walk and hit by pitch. But Sabathia gets his nemesis, Bobby Kielty to fly out to right to end the inning. C.C. is up to 93 pitches, meaning the Cleveland bullpen is going to get in the game soon.

We may have just seen the last start by Coco Crisp for the Red Sox. Kielty and Varitek singled to start the fourth. Francona asked Crisp to bunt, but Coco twice bunts foul, then strikes out. Lugo then hits into a rally killing double play to end the inning. At this point, I can't think of a reason to play Crisp over Ellsbury.

After the Red Sox hit into their ninth double play of the series, Ortiz walks and Ramirez hits what appears to be a home run off the top of the wall in right center. Manny doesn't run, thinking the ball is gone, but it's so close the ball bounces back on the field and the umpires call it in play. Ortiz scores from first, but the lolly-gagging Ramirez ends up at first with a single. Manny watched the ball rather than run it out. Of course, it's not the end of the world if the Red Sox lose.

Lowell strikes out, so it doesn't make a lot of difference.

Update: According to the broadcast, if the ball hits the yellow line, it's not a home run. The yellow line is part of the wall, separate from the shelf behind. It sure is tough to tell from the replay, but the ump probably made a good call. All the more reason to be upset at Manny for not hustling.

Maybe someday they'll remake Airplane with Manny taking on the Abdul-Jabbar role. :-)

With two out in the bottom of the second, Gutierrez draws a walk. That's the first free pass Beckett issued this post season.

Update: Beckett strikes out Blake to end the inning, giving him two in the second and three for the game, just like Sabathia.

Through two innings, Sabathia looks more like his old self. He's struck out three without issuing a walk, although he did hit a batter. He's thrown 21 of his 33 pitches for strikes so far.

Sizemore leads off the bottom of the first with a double, Cabrera singles to send him to third, then for a change the Indians hit into a rally killing double play as Hafner plates Sizemore. That ties the game at one, but the chance of a big inning goes way down. That's only the third DP Cleveland hit into during the series, and the first with runners in scoring position.

Update: The Indians get another single, but that's it as they end the first inning tied at one.

After getting Pedroia to ground out, Sabathia falls behind Youkilis 1-0, and Kevin hammers the first pitch in the strike zone over the leftfield wall for a 1-0 Boston lead.

Update: Manny Ramirez gets thrown out at the plate to end the first. Gutierrez makes a nice throw on a single by Lowell to right.

Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia meet for the second time in the series as the Red Sox face elimination from the playoffs tonight in Cleveland. Sabathia tries to bring back his control in game five. He's walked eleven in 9 1/3 innings in the post season after walking just thirty seven in 241 regular season innings. How is C.C. dealing with this?

Sabathia said he's confident he will have better command tonight. "I went down to the bullpen and worked on trying to stay taller and throw the ball downhill, something I didn't do in Boston, and had a pretty good bullpen," he said. "So I'm looking forward to being my normal self."

The other problem with Sabathia this post season are balls in play. He's struck out eight and hit a batter, so twenty eight batters put the ball in play against C.C. and eleven of those ended up hits. Overall twenty three of forty eight batters earned their way on against Sabathia.

There were some worries about Josh Beckett's back, but he's reported to be fine:

Beckett, 27, threw just 80 pitches in the 10-3 victory in Game 1, leaving after the Red Sox scored two runs in a long bottom of the sixth on a cold, windy night at Fenway Park. The Indians made two pitching changes in that half-inning.

"It was more the conditions of the game," pitching coach John Farrell said. "It was more precautionary than anything. Both in consultation with [Beckett] and Tito, Tito felt it was prudent to remove him after the sixth.

"He was fine. His bullpen two days ago was strong as others during the season. There's no restrictions of any kind going into [tonight]. No issue. This is not an issue."

Red Sox fans hope so. Unlike Sabathia, Beckett hasn't issued a walk in fifteen post-season innings while striking out fifteen. This has allowed him to be very efficient, throwing 188 pitches, just 12.5 per inning. The bullpen becomes less of a worry when you don't need them until the eighth or ninth inning.

Enjoy!

A good article in the Boston Herald talks about how the Red Sox pitching staff adjusted in 2004 to throw off the Yankees hitters, and how the Red Sox hitters in 2007 failed to adjust to Westbrook and Byrd.

Red Sox hitters thought Sabathia seemed to be pitching a bit backward, going away from his usual ploy of trying to get an outside fastball strike on the first pitch. Instead, he was relying more on breaking stuff, which was one of the potential reasons for just 13 strikes in 24 first pitches.

Carmona was even worse when it came to getting ahead, landing just seven of his first pitches for strikes. And don't think the Red Sox didn't take notice, swinging at just one of the starter's initial offerings.

Unfortunately for them, the next two Cleveland starters didn't follow suit.

Murray Chass writes about his cousins, sisters divided by the ALCS:

The sisters were raised as Indians fans, but Linda went away to college, never returned to Cleveland and landed in Boston, where immigrants are brainwashed into being Red Sox fans. Bonnie also went away to college, but she returned home to reaffirm her undying loyalty to the Indians.

"This is all my dad's fault," Bonnie said. "When he had two girls first and thought he might not have a son, he passed down his love of baseball to us. He would take us to doubleheaders on Sundays and play catch with us in the driveway, but I don't think he ever thought it would turn out to be the feud it is today."

Mort Klein, their father, acknowledged his role. "I really created a monster between the two daughters," he said. The family only hopes the relationship survives this series.

"A family divided against itself cannot stand," Linda's investment banker son, Josh, wrote in an e-mail message, then added, "Go Sox!"

Times are tense.

Where's Lincoln when you need him? :-)

Manny Ramirez talked to the press today:

"We're just going to go have fun and play the game," he said. "That's it. If we go play hard and the thing doesn't come like it's supposed to come, we'll move on. We'll come next year. Why should we panic? We've got a great team. If it doesn't happen, good. We'll come next year and try to do it again.

"We're confident every day. It doesn't matter how things go for you. We're not going to give up. We're just going to go and play the game, like I've said, and move on. If it doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like the end of the world or something."

My guess is Manny won't be running for president of Red Sox Nation any time soon.

My latest Sporting News column reviews the ALCS so far, and asks why all the strikeouts aren't enough to keep the Indians at bay.

Bill Livingston notes that Wedge's loyalty to his players once hurt his image, but now it's helping him win in the playoffs:

No sport is as filled with numbers as baseball, but the Indians have won with qualities you can't touch, time or test objectively. On a hot afternoon two years ago, when a playoff spot that seemed certain was slipping away, manager Eric Wedge said, "Belief in your players is the most important thing."

It seemed to be proof of his minor-league pedigree. He was a developer, not a finisher.

In Game 4 of the previous series, a fan base that had forgotten about Bartolo Colon losing to the Red Sox by a preposterous score of 23-7 on short rest in 1999 wanted hard-throwing C.C. Sabathia on the mound in Yankee Stadium, not the subtler and slower example of the pitcher's craft that Byrd exemplifies. Byrd would never have gotten off a lot of armchair managers' benches. Wedge saw it differently.

"The whole world wanted C.C. out on the mound, everybody but my mom, Eric Wedge, and my wife," Byrd said. "I've always appreciated Eric's loyalty. It's not me to try to prove everybody wrong. I'd rather prove a few people right. He was one of them. You really start to get the most out of your players when you have that kind of atmosphere."

And Eric isn't so loyal that he wasn't willing to pull Byrd the second he got in trouble. Wedge knew Byrd tended to get hit once he got above sixty pitches in a game and had a reliever ready to go when Paul allowed back to back home runs after throwing sixty four pitches. A very good job by Wedge last night.

Sometime you actually get to see luck in action. The story today in the Boston Globe is why Wakefield started last night, despite the fact that Tim pitched well. An inch made all the difference in making a good evening look bad:

Then came Blake's fifth-inning homer. And with runners at the corners, Asdrubal Cabrera lined a curveball for a single off Wakefield's glove for a 2-0 lead. If the pitcher hadn't touched the ball, second baseman Dustin Pedroia was in position to start an inning-end double play.

"It's a reaction play," Wakefield said. "If I let it go, it's a double play. If I catch it, it's a double play. It's one of those things where the breaks went their way in that inning. Unfortunately, I was taken out after two outs in the fifth."

I thought Wakefield was tiring in the fifth, as his knuckle ball was hanging high that inning. But a lucky tick off a glove gave the Indians a chance for a seven run lead instead of ending the inning up 1-0. And to Cleveland's credit, they took full advantage of the lucky break.

Cleveland stomps the Red Sox 7-3, scoring all seven runs in one inning. It was there second seven run inning of the series, scoring that many in the eleventh inning of game 2. The Indians struck out twelve times, but when they put the ball in play, good things keep happening. They're one game away from going to the World Series for the first time in ten years. All they need is one win from one of their two aces.

My thoughts going into this series that the teams would split the Sabathia-Carmona games, but I thought the Red Sox could take two of the three from Westbrook/Byrd. Cleveland taking those two games, and that is likely to earn them a chance to play Colorado.

The Red Sox have three outs to collect four runs. Lowell leads off the ninth.

Update: Lowell fouls out on the first pitch.

Update: Drew flies out to left. I'm surprised Crisp is batting here.

Update: Crisp hits the ball hard, but right at the first baseman for a line out.

Youkilis, Ortiz and Ramirez go out in order in the eighth. Cleveland needs just three outs to claim a 3-1 lead in the series.

Kevin Youkilis leads off the top of the sixth with a home run to make the score 7-1. Byrd is at the point in the game when he usually gets tired and he's more likely to allow home runs.

Update: Ortiz follows with a home run to right. That's it for Byrd. He leaves with a five run lead.

Update: Manny goes back-to-back-to-back. Manny hits one to center, so they distribute the homers all over the park. Manny does do the raise the hands at the plate and admire move. Not the best performance when you're still down four runs.

Update: That's all they get, but the three home runs make the game close enough to keep hope alive.

With men on first and second in the bottom of the fifth, Cabrera hits two gloves. He pops one foul that Youkilis reaches, but he turns the wrong way. The ball hits off his glove, bounces off Pedroia, back to Youk who juggles then drops it. No error on the play, but another life for Cabrera. The second baseman then hits a double play ball, but Wakefield tips it, slowing it down for an infield hit. That scores the second run of the night for Cleveland.

Update: Martinez singles after a Hafner K to make the score 3-0. Wakefield only lasts 4 2/3 innings. The last three games the Red Sox starters have failed to complete five innings.

Update: Delcarmen does his job, letting Wakefield's runs score. He also gives up one of his own as Peralta hits a three-run homer, his second of the series. The Indians lead 6-0.

Update: Blake collects his second hit of the inning, driving in Lofton. That extends the lead to 7-0.

Casey Blake leads off the bottom of the fifth with a home run down the leftfield line. The knuckle ball was sinking, but Casey swung an uppercut in the plane of the ball. Gutierrez singles on a high knuckle ball, then Wakefield hits Shoppach. He's pitched well so far, but he might be tiring after all that time off.

Paul Byrd retires the Red Sox in order in the top of the fifth. However, he is now over 60 pitches, a place where he usually runs into trouble. The Red Sox 2-3-4 hitters are due up in the top of the sixth.

Jhonny Peralta doubles with two out in the bottom of the fourth. It's the first hit of the evening for the Indians, and the first extra-base hit of the game.

Update: Lofton grounds out to end the inning. The game remains scoreless.

Paul Byrd keeps throwing strikes. He's thrown 55 pitches through four innings, 43 for strikes. That's good for 78%.

At the end of three, the Red Sox and Indians are tied at zero. Tim Wakefield walked two batters but he hasn't allowed a hit yet. He's struck out five.

Paul gives up a hit to Manny Ramirez but strikes out two more batters. That gives him three K in two innings. The two slow throwers combined faced eleven batters and struck out five of them.

Update: Wakefield strikes out two more, as both pitchers are fooling batters tonight.

Asdrubal Cabrera does not switch, batting right-handed against the righty Tim Wakefield. He strikes out. Righties hit about 30 points higher against Wakefield.

Update: Victor Martinez also bats righty against Wakefield. This must have been something they decided on a team-wide basis.

Update: Martinez flies out to right to end the inning. Wakefield keeps the ball out of play as he walks one and strikes out two.

Paul Byrd throws just eight pitches in the first inning, seven for strikes. He even picks up a strikeout as David Ortiz swings and misses to end the inning.

The Red Sox and Indians continue their quest to host the Colorado Rockies in the World Series tonight. The theme for the evening is slow pitch hardball as Tim Wakefield faces Paul Byrd. Wakefield last pitched on Sept. 29, giving him sixteen days off between starts to recover from a bad shoulder.

To get ready for tonight's start, Wakefield threw a simulated game last Tuesday. He worked five innings, threw 77 pitches, and pronounced himself fine. In fact, once Saturday night's game reached extra innings, Wakefield was preparing himself - with no word to Francona - to head out to the bullpen, possibly to do the kind of savior's work he did in the 2004 ALCS. But it didn't come to that.

The injury was pretty apparent in his September numbers as he allowed twenty four runs in 24 2/3 innings. Almost one third of the home runs he allowed came in September. When the knuckle ball doesn't bend, it's just a big target waiting to be walloped.

Wakefield's done well in the LCS in his career, picking up all five of his wins. But apart from his 1992 NLCS in which he pitched eighteen innings in two starts, and the 2003 ALCS in which he allowed the series winning home run, Wakefield hasn't pitched well. Even with those series, his ERA stands at 6.12. Personally, I'd start Beckett with the knowledge he could be brought back for game seven on normal rest.

One difference between Byrd in 2007 and 2006 came about due to the Cleveland defense. Byrd allowed about the same number of earned runs as last season, but his unearned runs dropped from twenty three to nine. For a pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play, that sure-handedness is important. Plenty of hits get through against Byrd as he allowed a .301 batting average. But the Indians fielders didn't add to that hit total too much with miscues.

Watch for Byrd to be pulled if he gets in any trouble after sixty pitches. The opposition is 95 for 280 against Paul at that point, a .339 BA. And eleven of his twenty seven home runs came after he started to tire.

The Red Sox need to win one to send the series back to Boston. We'll see which of these pitchers can keep their slow stuff bending tonight.

Enjoy!

From the Arizona Republic summary of the game and series:

Jeers

Isn't luck supposed to even out? There's no question the Diamondbacks were beaten, but the Rockies' amount of good fortune was hard to believe.

The author is looking at the wrong time frame. Luck did even out. The DBacks were outscored by twenty runs during the season yet finished with the best record in the NL. The Rockies outscored their opponents by one hundred runs, the biggest difference in the NL, and barely made the playoffs. It seems to me luck evened out just fine in this series.

While it's never fun to lose, Diamondbacks fans got a taste of what's to come. This Arizona team is still young and immature, as seen in the many base running errors they made during the series. That will change. This team really is where the Rockies were two years ago. As these hitters peak together, I suspect they will become a team that leads the NL in both wins and run differential. And since winning tends to lead to fan support, they'll be that much stronger with higher revenue coming in. They didn't reach the series this season, but with this squad they're likely to have many more chances.

Matt Holliday wins the NLCS MVP award. He went two for three tonight, hitting the home run that provided the winning margine. He posted a .412 OBA and a .733 slugging percentage. The fans have been chanting MVP every time he comes to the plate, and he's received one.

The Rockies held the Diamondbacks to eight runs over four games and sweep the NLCS. This was Arizona's best offensive night, but it wasn't enough. The deep bullpen made a huge difference tonight, and not just on the mound. It allowed Hurdle to pinch hit for Morales after he went just four innings, and that turned into a six-run inning.

Congratulations to Colorado on a fantastic series, a great post-season, and one of the most amazing streaks I've seen. They are the first team to sweep both the division series and the LCS. They can now take an eight day vacation before the series starts, and take their time to analyze both the Red Sox and Indians.

Salazar grounds out to Helton for the first out in the ninth. Corpas has two more outs to get.

Update: Young breaks his bat, but still hits the ball hard enough to get it by the third baseman Carroll, who was not guarding the line. It's a double, and the tying run comes to the play in the person of Stephen Drew.

Update: Drew pops out. It's up to Byrnes.

Update: Byrnes hits a check swing roller on the first pitch. It rolls by Carroll, but Troy Tulowitzki throws him out at first. The Rockies win! They're going to the World Series for the first time!

Arizona comes to bat in the eighth, with just six outs remaining to score five runs. The Rockies bullpen hasn't allowed a hit in two innings, with just one Arizona batter reaching base, that via an error. It's 6-1 Colorado, two innings from a sweep.

Update: Two singles put runners on first and third for Arizona with one out. Fuentes is the first Colorado reliever hit tonight.

Update: With two out, Snyder connects, hitting a home run deep but just inside the leftfield foul pole. That makes it 6-4 Colorado. The Diamondbacks now have four outs to get two runs.

Update: The offense is coming to life as Upton triples to left center. That brings the tying run to the plate.

Update: Clark strikes out to end the inning, but the Diamondbacks are in striking distance.

Micah Owings walks his first two batters of the game in the fourth. He then makes a diving play on a slow roller by Torrealba. He gets the out but the belly flop knocks the wind out of him. He'll face a pinch hitter for Morales with men on second and third and two out.

I don't know if I agree with this. You're up 3-0 in the series and the bullpen pitched a lot. They're going to pitch a lot more tonight, and the game is at Coors. Why not let Morales bat and see if he gets lucky?

Update: Hurdle makes the right decision as Seth Smith bloops a hit just inside the leftfield line. Colorado scores both runners and lead the game 2-1. The crowd is loving it.

Update: Connor Jackson's error at first keeps the inning alive with runners at first and third. Kaz Matsui delivers another RBI to extend the lead to 3-1. That gives him eight in seven post-season games. Holliday follows with a three-run homer over the centerfield fence, and the score stands at 6-1. The ball is in the fountain, Owings is out of the game, and the Arizona season is hanging by a thread.

Micah Owings not only hits for power, but can run, too. He beats out an infield single leading off the third inning. Young hits a screaming liner, but right at the shortstop as the DBacks luck of 2007 keeps evening out in this series.

Update: With two out, Byrnes walks and Jackson singles him in to give Arizona a 1-0 lead. Owings must be of the opinion that if he's going to win this game, he's going to need to contribute on both sides of the ball. :-)

The Cleveland Indians relievers pitch 2 1/3 perfect innings to hold the Red Sox to two runs and take game three 4-2. Boston equalled Cleveland's walk total, picked up one more hit and one more extra-base hit. But three double plays erased valuable base runners, especially the one coming in the second inning with one out and the bases loaded. Like the Yankees before them, the Red Sox are having problems getting the big hit off the Cleveland starter, then the pen is shutting them down. That's 8 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings for the Cleveland relievers.

Now the speculation starts over using Beckett in game four. If they do, Schilling, Matsuzaka and Beckett can pitch on normal rest for games five, six and seven. Given how well Beckett pitched in game six of the 2003 World Series on short rest, it seems like a pretty good option.

Chris Young makes the latest Diamondbacks base running mistake, getting picked off pitcher unassisted. He wastes leading off the game with a hit. It's just another example of how this team still needs to mature.

Jason Varitek was only three for twenty one in the post season so far, but he didn't let a Drew single go to waste as he hits one out to dead centerfield for a two-run homer. Three of his four hits in the playoffs have gone for extra-bases. The Red Sox now trail 4-2, still batting in the top of the seventh.

Update: Lewis enters the game after Westbrook gives up an infield single to Lugo with two out. It was a poor play by the shortstop, an example of why Cleveland's DER this season was low.

Update: Pedroia battles, but eventually strikes out against Lewis. It's 4-2 Cleveland going to the bottom of the seventh.

With men on first and second and one out, Manny Ramirez takes a 3-0 pitch that's inside. It gets called a strike, although clearly it was ball four. Ramirez then grounds into a double play to end the inning.

I know umpires tend to expand the zone on a 3-0 pitch, but this home plate ump had a postage stamp sized zone all night. That was too generous.

The Indians chase Daisuke Matsuzaka after 101 pitches and two runs allowed in the fifth inning. Dice-K faced twenty two batters, striking out six and walking two. He allowed one home run, so on fieldable balls in play the Indians were 5 for 13, a DER of .615. That's way below normal for the Red Sox. The Red Sox are 3 for 15 with a reach on an error, a DER of .733 for Cleveland. Boston over the season was the better defensive team, but tonight the balls in play off Dice-K got through and the one off Westbrook haven't. The Indians lead 4-0 going to the top of the sixth.

After doubling to lead off the inning, David Ortiz runs into Manny Ramirez's ground ball. Ortiz is out and Manny gets a single. I don't think I've ever seen that happen. Usually it's a very hard hit ball that catches a runner by surprise. Ortiz had the play in front of him.

Dice-K appeared to be pitching well, striking out three of the first six batters he faced. But Kenny Lofton gets a pitch over the inner part of the plate and bounces it off the top of the leftfield wall into the stands. With a man on, the Indians lead 2-0.

Garko's nice play in the first is followed up by an error in the second that loads the bases with none out. Manny walked and Lowell singled. Westbrook didn't issue too many walks during the regular season, but he's given out two free passes so far tonight.

Update: Nice job by Westbrook to get out of trouble unscathed. Varitek flies out to shallow left and Ramirez holds at third. Then Crisp grounds into a double play, the second of the game. Westbrook can survive the walks if he can keep getting the DPs.

After striking out Pedroia, Westbrook walks Youkilis. There were two pitches he threw on the outside corner that I thought were strikes, so it may be a difficult night for pitchers. Luckily, he gets David Ortiz to ground into the shift, and with David's less than blazing speed they Indians turn an ugly double play, Garko making a nice stretch to the outfield side of the bag to complete the force.

The ALCS resumes tonight with the Red Sox and Indians tied at one. Daisuke Matsuzaka faces Jake Westbrook. Interestingly, Dice-K owns the higher ERA of the two. Matsuzaka's high strikeout rate, about three per nine more than Westbrook, didn't result in that big a difference in hits per nine. The two had a 30 point difference in batting average allowed, but less than a twenty point difference in OBA allowed. Westbrook did better in both walks per nine and home runs per nine.

That said, it's a good matchup for Matsuzaka. The Indians strike out at a high rate, and Daisuke is on the road where he Ks batters more often. When he pitched against the Indians in Fenway this season he allowed six runs in 5 2/3 innings. When he faced them at Cleveland he threw a seven inning shutout.

Westbrook is also in a comfortable place for pitching. He allowed just five home runs in 82 1/3 home innings. On the road he gave up eight dingers in 69 2/3 innings. So if Matsuzaka can limit the Cleveland hits and Westbrook can limit the Boston home runs, they might finish the game in less than four hours!

At 10 PM EDT, the Rockies go for a sweep of the Diamondbacks and an eight-day vacation. Micah Owings pitches on long rest, as he's been off the mound since 9/27. He did pinch hit, however, and his bat in the lineup might help the Diamondbacks more than his arm. The Diamondbacks 3.21 ERA in the series is quite adequate. It's the four runs scored in three games that's the problem. The three starting pitchers are 3 for 5 in the series, the rest of the team 23 for 100.

As a pitcher, Owings found his control late in the season. From August first on, he walked just thirteen batters in 59 2/3 innings, just two per nine. That helped him finish with a 3.02 ERA over the last two months. And while he allowed nine home runs in that time frame, due to his low walk number seven of them came with the bases empty.

Franklin Morales provided a big boost to an injury deleted Rockies rotation down the stretch. And while he averaged less than five innings in his eight starts, he also averaged less than two runs allowed. He maintained a phenomenal home runs rate of one every twenty innings (although he pitched most of his games on the road). His batting average allowed does go up over 90 points at home. We'll see if the Colorado defense can help him out tonight.

Enjoy!

Corpas is on to try to earn a save with a 4-1 lead in the top of the ninth.

Update: Clark is out on a fliner to left. Reynolds is up.

Update: Reynolds pops up for the second out. It's up to Upton!

Update: Upton grounds out to third, and the Rockies go up 3-0 in the series. That's usually a death knell for the losing team as the 2004 Boston Red Sox are the only team to come back from a 3-0 deficit. That's in 29 attempts.

The Diamondbacks picked up hits, but the Rockies collected one more long ball, and it was with three men on base. That made all the difference.

The Rockies defense appears to be playing great as well. They turned three double plays tonight and made a number of fine defensive plays on the infield. Helton is impressive holding the bag at first, moving into foul territory to take throws and making perfect stretches with a toe on the bag. Tomorrow night, Colorado goes for the sweep and the franchises first trip to the World Series.

With a leadoff single in the eighth, the Arizona Diamondbacks put a batter on in seven of the eight innings they've played tonight. But that's all they get as Fuentes induces two fly outs and a K to end the inning. Seven of the DBacks eight hits tonight went for singles.

Dustin Nippert comes on in the bottom of the seventh with the bases loaded and two out to get Tulowitzki to pop out. The Rockies still lead 4-1, and they are definitely out-playing the Diamondbacks so far tonight.

The Rockies use a walk, single and a Torrealba three-run homer to put themselves up 4-1 on the Diamondbacks. That's the first time tonight a team collected an extra-base hit with someone on base. And that's if for Josh Fogg as pinch hitter Baker singles. That drives Hernandez from the game as well.

Fogg only threw 76 pitches, but he lived on the edge all night. Eventually, Arizona would put two or three hits together, also. The Rockies deep bullpen needs to get nine outs to go up 3-0 in the series.

Josh Fogg allowed at least one base runner in each of the first six innings, but the Diamondbacks scored just once on a home run. The Diamondbacks collected seven hits and a walk, but they've been spread out and three double plays effectively reduced their OBA. The Rockies also just have a solo shot for a run. They've put on six base runners in five innings. No one's been able to put together three hits in an inning, or two extra-base hits in a row.

The Diamondbacks won't hit into a double play in the fourth as with two out Reynolds hits a massive home run to leftfield. That ties the game at one as both teams now have a homer in the series.

After Torrealba doubles to start the bottom of the third, Fogg is called on to bunt. He doesn't get a sacrifice, but he does walk. Rather than going after Hernandez, the Rockies bunt with Taveras, and Torrealba gets thrown out at third. When you have a pitcher on the ropes like that, don't give him a life line with a bunt, especially a bad one. Make him earn the out.

Update: The Rockies play for one run and get none as Livan strikes out Matt Holliday to end the inning.

Fogg only allows one base runner in the third on a walk to Young. Once again, the Rockies turn a double play and the inning ends without Arizona scoring. That's three double plays in three innings.

The Diamondbacks pick up two more singles in the second, but also hit into a second double play. They are out-hitting the Rockies 4-1 so far, but are losing 1-0. The Rockies neutralized the Phillies power indirectly by keeping men off base so Philadelphia home runs didn't do too much damage. They are neutralizing Arizona's power directly by keeping the Diamondbacks hits short.

With two out, Matt Holliday reaches out for a low, outside corner pitch and drives it into the leftfield stands for a 1-0 Rockies lead. Byrnes bad night continues as he doesn't notice the wall and crashes into it going back for the ball.

One of the points of the extra day off in the LCS involved giving teams more flexibility in terms of weather related cancellations. Rather than play on a miserable night like this, why wait for a better day?

Chris Young bloops a single to centerfield to start game 3 of the NLCS. It's raining decently hard, and looks pretty cold there. A good night for a low scoring game.

Update: Fogg outplays Byrnes as with two on and none out he catches a shot up the middle and fires to second for the double play. The DBacks pick up two hits but no runs in the first.

Looks like there's a good chance for cold rain tonight as the Diamondbacks and Rockies resume their series at Coors Field. I wonder if they'll play a little Prince at the park. :-)

Livan Hernandez takes the mound as the Diamondbacks try to fight back from losing the first two games at home. Livan's one of the great post-season pitchers, accumulating a 7-2 record and 3.75 ERA. He's at his best in the first two rounds where he's undefeated at 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA.

Against the Rockies, Livan pitched very well with little to show for it. Hernandez started five games, averaged seven innings per start, and posted a 1.54 ERA. Somehow he managed just a 1-0 record. And in all those innings against a good power team, Livan didn't allow a home run. That's one reason he was able to allow 47 base runners with only seven scoring. Another was just a .188 BA allowed at Coors.

Josh Fogg showed similar results versus Arizona. He allowed 37 base runners in twenty four innings, but only allowed eight runs. He held the Diamondbacks to a .208 BA with runners in scoring position, and all the hits were singles. And like Hernandez, he managed just a 1-1 record in four starts.

So this game could come down to the bullpens again. So far in the postseason, the Diamondbacks relievers own a 0.52 ERA while the Rockies are at 0.90. A good lead after five innings looks safe for either team.

Enjoy!

Eric Byrnes showed the Diamondbacks still hold a winning attitude:

"We have not been outplayed," Byrnes said. "If anything, it's the other way around."

He did not guarantee victory, but he went on to say that the Rockies have gotten all the breaks and that the Diamondbacks could use a little luck on their side.

Just like that, Byrnes grabbed some headlines, gave the Rockies some bulletin-board material and perhaps reinvigorated his own clubhouse.

Mark Reynolds echoed that:

"I guess we've got to win it in six now, huh?" third baseman Mark Reynolds said after Friday night's Game 2 loss.

"We're never down in this clubhouse. We're always confident."

I like the attitude, and we'll see if they can deliver at the altitude.

Video from Saturday night's Cleveland-Boston game. Sorry there aren't more Indians highlights, but I had more luck capturing the Red Sox batting.

Many thanks to Bill James who graciously allowed Jim Storer and I to use his family employee tickets to game 2. It was a long night, with Cleveland scoring seven runs in the top of the eleventh inning to win the game 13-6. A long night, but a lot of fun and well worth the five hour game time!

The seats were quite good, with this view:

Jim Lonborg threw out the first pitch, as the Red Sox celebrate the fortieth anniversary of the Impossible Dream season. Dr. Lonborg still generates a great still of excitement among the fans, although he can no longer reach home plate from the mound.

The managers and umpires pose for an official home plate meeting photo after they go over the ground rules.

Here's Jim Storer and Susan McCarthy, Bill's wife. Susan scores the games like a pro. She was not interested in baseball before she met Bill, but now she's well versed in the game, players and strategy.

And Baseball Tonight was well represented at game. The white haired man in the middle of the picture is Peter Gammons. I ran into him pre-game, and he asked me if this meant I wasn't writing during the game. I pointed to my Q and told him I would be blogging.

Peter's seats are eleven rows behind home plate and afford a great view of the pitches. The first game I attended with my daughter were in those seats, and it was a great matchup as Pedro Martinez faced Bartolo Colon, both with their good stuff that day.

Karl Ravech brought his oldest son. That's Karl in the yellow cap.

One reason I had asked Bill for the tickets is we had a Japanese exchange student, Eri Uehara. Eri loves baseball, and originally I thought she and my daughter Melinda could go to the game. Unfortunately, the schedule didn't work out. But she taught me a few Japanese baseball terms and drew these tablets.

The middle one says "Red Sox Pitcher, Matsuzaka Daisuke." The word for pitcher, toushu, means throw hand. At the bottom are the Japanese symbols for all the positions.

The crowd was great last night, although to a person no one wants to see Gagne pitch again for the Red Sox. The Cleveland pen pitched very well, as did the Red Sox pen until the eleventh. The Indians take back home field advantage, and the Red Sox face their first bit of adversity in the series.

Update: I forgot to mention the quote of the night came from Bill James, who came by our seats in the bottom of the eleventh. By this time 90% of the crowd left. J.D. Drew led off the inning with a single, and Bill remarked, "The crowd is so tired they forgot to boo J.D. Drew."

Eric Gagne starts the 11th. He does strike out Blake, but Sizemore singles.

Update--Cabrera walks. Nixon pinch hits. Lopez relieves.

Nixon singles to shallow center to plate one, then a wild pitch gives the Indians a two run lead.

Garko singles in the third run of the inning and the fans start to leave.

Eric Gagne starts the 11th. He does strike out Blake, but Sizemore singles.

Update--Cabrera walks. Nixon pinch hits. Lopez relieves.

Nixon singles to shallow center to plate one, then a wild pitch gives the Indians a two run lead.

Garko singles in the third run of the inning and the fans start to leave.

Boston and Cleveland go to the ninth tied at six. The Red Sox have just 7 hits, but drew five walks.

Update--Hafner singles up the middle with two out. The second baseman was shifted, but not the shortstop. Barfield PR, steals, and they walk Martinez to pitch to Garko.

Update--Garko grounds hard to third. I predict the Red Sox get two men on to bring up Ortiz.

Update--Pedroia singles but that's it. To the tenth.

Boston and Cleveland go to the ninth tied at six. The Red Sox have just 7 hits, but drew five walks.

Update--Hafner singles up the middle with two out. The second baseman was shifted, but not the shortstop. Barfield PR, steals, and they walk Martinez to pitch to Garko.

Update--Garko grounds hard to third. I predict the Red Sox get two men on to bring up Ortiz.

Update--Pedroia singles but that's it. To the tenth.

Cleveland, fighting for its playoff life, ties the game at six in the top of the sixth. They leave the bases loaded as Hafner lines a bullet right at Pedroia.

Carmona gives up a single to Youkilis leading off the fifth and he's gone. Neither starter lasts five as a Sizemore homer makes the score 5-3 Indians.Perez is on to pitch. Carmona's strike percentage was around fifty percent.

Update--Manny and Lowell hit back-to-back home runs and Boston takes a 6-5 lead. A rather poor 1/3 of an inning for Perez as Drew singles to knock Perez out.

Carmona gives up a single to Youkilis leading off the fifth and he's gone. Neither starter lasts five as a Sizemore homer makes the score 5-3 Indians.Perez is on to pitch. Carmona's strike percentage was around fifty percent.

Update--Manny and Lowell hit back-to-back home runs and Boston takes a 6-5 lead. A rather poor 1/3 of an inning for Perez as Drew singles to knock Perez out.

Curt Schilling is throwing strikes, but the Indians are hitting them. Two singles and a Peralta homer put the Tribe up 4-3 in the fourth.

Carmona's wildness finally gets to him as he walks Manny Ramirez to drive in a run and then Lowell singles to plate two. One run is mot enough as th Red Sox lead 3-1 after three.

Carmona is under fifty percent strikes through two. A big DP and a liner right at the second baseman saved him so far.

Does Eric Wedge really think this is going to be another 1-0 game? Cabrera bunts and pops out. Give the guy a chance to drive in a run and have a big inning. Martnez doubles to at least get one run in.

Jim Storer and I are sitting near the top of the grandstand behind home plate wit Bill James' lovely wife Susan McCarthy.

Stephen King just walked by.

The Indians send their second ace to the mound tonight to try to earn a split against the Red Sox. Fausto Carmona comes off a strong September and a strong start against the Yankees to try to stop a team undefeated in the post season. In his way stands Curt Schilling, known for his post-season prowess.

Carmona posted the best ERA in the majors after the All-Star break (min. 70 IP). His strikeout rate wasn't extraordinary, but opposition batters found him tough to hit. Fausto pitched like that against the Yankees, striking out five in nine innings but allowing just three hits. He was also especially good at keeping the ball in the park in the second half, only giving up six home runs in 107 1/3 innings.

Lefties hit Fausto better than righties, posting a .276 BA during the regular season while righties hit just .216. But Carmona did a good job of limiting lefty power, as left-handers had a lower isolated power than righties. They doubled off Fausto rather than homering. In his 1-0 win over Boston in July, all four hits came from the left side, but they were all singles.

Curt Schilling comes into this game with a 9-2 record in the playoffs and a 1.93 ERA. He's only walked 23 batters in 116 1/3 innings. Opponents managed just a .243 OBA against Curt and a .308 slugging percentage.

Schilling walk rate was even lower during the 2007 campaign, issuing just 23 in 151 innings. He's become more of a finesse pitcher, striking out thirty in his 56 2/3 innings since returning from his injury, but walking just four. No free passes, and not too many hits. The Indians do strike out a bit, so we'll see Curt tries to use that weakness to his advantage.

The real challenge for Carmona isn't Schilling, of course, but Ortiz and Ramirez. They are a combined 12 for 19 with 16 walks in the post season. Their combined OBA is around .800. Keeping them off base is the key to shutting down the Red Sox.

I'll bring you first-hand reporting from Fenway tonight, as I'm off to the ballpark. Pictures tomorrow.

Enjoy!

Mike Littwin notes the walking them of NLCS Game 2:

And then came the ninth, when the Diamondbacks tied the score in an inning that will be long remembered for the runner, who could have been the winning run, walking off second base, straight into an out.

This was the kind of rally-killer you rarely see. But walking would be a theme for the night.

The Rockies, who don't know how to lose, found a different way to win.

An infield hit.

A walk.

A walk.

A walk.

When you walk Jamey Carroll to load the bases and Willy Taveras to bring in the winning run, you deserve to lose.

The Drew walk away from the bag coupled with the Upton slide cost the Diamondbacks out at critical times. Both showed the immaturity of the Diamondbacks. That will change.

In a way, the Rockies are turning the tables on the Diamondbacks. Arizona posted a higher batting average, OBA and slugging percentage in the two games, but Colorado out-scored them 8-3. The DBacks had four runners removed via double plays, caught stealing and Drew blunder. When teams aren't putting a lot of people on in the first place, you can't afford to lose potential runs. The Rockies only hit into one double play so far.

In the top of the eleventh, the Rockies load the bases with two out, alternating getting on base and making an out. Taveras was scheduled to make an out, but he walked instead and the Rockies lead 3-2 going to the bottom of the eleventh.

Update: Owings is pinch hitting with one out in the bottom of the eleventh.

Update: He flies out. One more out and the Rockies have a commanding lead.

Update: Young strikes out to end the game. The DBacks now need to pull off the rare comeback from losing the first two games at home.

Corpas hits Young on a 1-2 pitch, and Drew follows with a single to put runners at first and third. Byrnes grounds to second, but the Rockies can't get one out on the play and the DBacks tie the game. But Drew thought he was called out, so he wandered off the bag and gets tagged out. Winning run on first for Clark.

Update: That's it extra innings. Nice job by the Arizona bullpen, allowing just one hit over four innings.

Willie Taveras hasn't looked that good in centerfield tonight until now. He makes a diving catch on a ball in the right-center gap with two outs to likely save a run. Byrnes was at first and probably scores if the ball gets by Willie. The Rockies still lead 2-1 as they bat in the top of the eighth.

Jimenez walks three in the fifth inning but leaves them all stranded. Both pitchers have walked four and allowed five hits through five innings.

Taveras leads off the fifth with a walk, and Matsui hits away this time and singles. Both advance on a fly to left, then Willie scores on another. The Rockies a 2-1 lead and have a runner in scoring position with two out.

I thought the early game would be the pitching duel and this would be the slugfest. I got that wrong.

Bob Brenly loves sacrifices. The top of the third shows why it's not always a good strategy. Taveras doubles to lead off the inning. Matsui comes up, one of the hot post-season hitters on the team, and bunts Willie to third. Instead of taking three shots at driving in the speedy Taveras from second, the Rockies waste an out and can't plate him from third. The one-run strategies don't always get you one run. If Matsui gets a single to the outfield, Taveras probably scores.

Doug Davis sends one over Taveras' head leading off the bottom of the third and winds up at second with a double. That's the third half inning in a row in which the lead off hitter collected a two-base hit.

Update: Third time is a charm. The DBacks don't bunt and Young singles to right center to drive in Davis and tie the game at one.

Update: The Rockies finally throw out a base stealer with Jimenez on the mound. Young beat the throw, but Tulowitzki got his foot in front of the bag and Young couldn't get his hand in. Again, a feet first slide probably works better there.

After the error in the top of the second, Davis struck out two before giving up the two hits to plate the run. In the bottom of the inning, Jimenez allows a lead off double to Clark, but then strikes out three batters in a row to strand Tony at second. Ubaldo is throwing in the high 90's tonight and has four strikeouts through two innings.

Reynolds makes an error at third in the top of the second, and with two out Todd Helton comes around to score to put the Rockies on top 1-0. That's the tenth run Davis allowed the Rockies this season, and the fourth of the unearned variety. I guess the black jerseys aren't working yet.

The Red Sox win by a final score of 10-3. Eric Gagne loaded the bases in the ninth but didn't allow a run. It was total domination as Boston out-hit Cleveland 12-8 and out walked them 8-2. Those eight walks are impressive, as the great strength of the Cleveland pitching staff this season was preventing the base on balls. The Indians get a second chance at winning home field advantage tomorrow night as Carmona faces Schilling.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are wearing their black shirts tonight to prevent Colorado from doing the same. The Rockies have worn black during this streak.

Tonight's a great example of why it was worth it for the Red Sox to give Manny, Youkilis and Ortiz a chance to get healthy. The three are a combined five for six with five walks. They've scored seven of the ten Boston runs and set up Lowell and Kielty for a combined five RBI. Those three are just clogging the bases and letting the players behind them do the clearing.

The six walks C.C. Sabathia allowed to the Yankees was not an anomaly. He allowed five tonight to Boston in 4 1/3 innings. And unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox picked up the timely hits to drive those base runners home. Thirteen Red Sox earned their way on tonight in five innings, and eight of them came around to score as the Red Sox lead 8-1 at the end of five.

Beckett is pitching great again, striking out seven without allowing a walk so far. His only mistake was the home run by Hafner in the first. He's yet to walk a batter in fourteen post season innings this year.

The Indians and Red Sox meet tonight in Game 1 of the ALCS and present a great pitching matchup. C.C. Sabathia takes on Josh Beckett, both legitimate Cy Young candidates. Each lost a 1-0 decision to the other team Sabathia falling at the hands of Matsuzaka and Beckett going down to Carmona. That was Sabathia's only start against the Red Sox in 2007, but Beckett won another, allowing just three runs in fifteen innings while striking out fourteen and walking just one.

Sabathia's never posted a losing season, but he still found room for improvement. His ERA averaged in the fours his first five seasons. But since the start of 2006 he's perfected his control, cutting his rate from a good 3.5 per nine to a great 1.7 per nine. That leads one to believe his six walks issued to the Yankees in five LDS innings was a bit of an anomaly.

Beckett nearly cut his home runs allowed in half this season, bringing his ERA down almost two runs. All of that came on the road, however, where the long balls dropped from 24 to 7. He actually gave up a bit more power at Fenway this season. Beckett also kept the long balls from doing much damage as thirteen of the seventeen came with the bases empty.

In Arizona, the Rockies can bury the Diamondbacks with a second win on the road. They'll send Ubaldo Jimenez against Doug Davis. Ubaldo's walk rate is a little high, but he makes up for that with a low batting average allowed. That was very true against Arizona this season as he allowed an .093 batting average and a .220 OBA. The Diamondbacks struck out in over a third of their at bats against Ubaldo.

Doug Davis is a great example of a .500 pitcher. His ERA is good enough to win if the teams plays well, poor enough to lose when the Diamondbacks can't score much. He posted a 1-4 record in May with a 3.65 ERA, and a 5-1 record in August with a 4.00 ERA. Doug gives you a start that is winnable if his team can get to the other pitcher. This season, that happened about half the time. He might have won twenty games for the Yankees.

Davis made three starts against the Rockies and allowed a 3.18 ERA against the Rockies, but here's a good example of luck balancing out. He pitched poorly, allowing a .343 batting average and a .443 OBA against Colorado. But the Rockies BA dropped to .269 with men in scoring position and .100 in that situation with two out. However, Doug allowed three unearned runs and managed to post just a 1-2 record.

Should be two good games tonight, one for the fans of great pitching early, one for the fans of more offense late. Enjoy!

Clint Hurdle gets it right.

"The interference call, I thought, looked like a good aggressive slide going in," Rockies manager Clint Hurdle said. "I thought he went out of his way to make contact."

The extra effort by Justin was unnecessary. Matsui was backpedaling, reducing his chance of getting off a bad throw. The good part of the slide already broke up the double play. The HBP upset Upton, as did Tulowitzki's scolding. Justin probably had just a little too much adrenaline going into second base. A rookie mistake.

The Diamondbacks are about to come up in the bottom of the ninth. They need four runs to keep the game alive.

Update: Three up, three down, sort of. Montero doubles to left center, but overslides the bag on a close play at second. He's tagged out to end the game, as Colorado wins 5-1.

The two teams put about the same number of runners on base, each Arizona winning the battle of hits 9-8. The Rockies walked four times, while the DBacks drew two walks and were hit twice. But Colorado took out three of those DBacks runners with double plays, and Arizona helped the Rockies runners along with two wild pitches and a passed ball. A great win for the Rockies, giving them home field advantage and taking the Arizona ace out. They've won seven in a row and 18 or their last 19.

The Diamondbacks get the first two batters on in the bottom of the seventh, but on a potential double play ball, Upton takes out Matsui. Kaz was backing off and Justin popped up and knocked him down. The ump called the double play, even though I don't think Kaz could have completed it. The crowd is now throwing plastic bottles on the field, and Hurdle pulled his players off.

Update: The fans who were throwing the bottle have been arrested, according to the broadcast.

Update: It's a good thing the Rockies got the interference call. The DBacks put the first two runners on after Colorado returned to the field, and the bases are loaded. A home run ties the game.

Update: Affeldt comes in and gets Drew to fly out on the first pitch. The Rockies dodge a bullet.

Webb doesn't come out for the seventh after throwing 98 pitches through six innings. He posted a 6.00 ERA and a .304 BA allowed for the night, a little worse than what how he pitched against the Rockies during the regular season. Now the Arizona bullpen needs to hold the Rockies scoreless for three innings and give the offense a chance to comeback. The Rockies still lead 4-1 in the top of the seventh.

Update: A Connor Jackson error leads to a fifth run. Cruz got a ground ball to appear to get out of a two-out, runner at third situation but the ball hit off Jackson's chest and Matsui was safe.

Willy Taveras makes his presence felt in the third inning as he singles with one out, steals second, and scores on a Matsui single. That's seven RBI in four games for Kaz. Holliday follows with a single that rolls down the third base line, kicks foul, then rolls back fair to hit the bag. Once again, the Rockies are getting men on base.

Update: Webb nemisis, Brad Hawpe singles with the bases loaded to plate two more runs and the Rockies are out to a 4-1 lead. This performance by Webb was typical of how he pitched against the Rockies this season.

The Rockies lead off the second with two hits and a walk to load the bases. They tie the game on a ground double play. But it shows the power of getting on base. The more you put on, the more likely some of them will score. So far we are indeed getting Arizona power vs. Rockies OBA.

Drew and Byrnes combine for a run as Drew singles and Eric doubles to drive in Stephen. Francis gave up ten doubles in the first inning this season, the most he gave up in any inning. The DBacks get off to a 1-0 lead after one inning.

Brandon Webb retires the side in order in the first, striking out two. His strikeouts were low against Colorado during the regular season, compare to his overall strikeout numbers.

Jeff Francis and Brandon Webb kick off the League Championship series tonight in Arizona. Not only is this a series between two NL West members, it's also a series between the two highest altitude teams in Major League Baseball. That's one reason to expect some power in this playoff round.

Francis pitched well against the Diamondbacks this season, posting a 2.84 ERA in four starts against Arizona. Jeff's splits against the Diamondbacks show that he achieved that ERA by limiting Arizona's power. Only three of Arizona's nineteen hits against Francis went for extra bases, two doubles and a home run. Since power is the main component of the Diamondbacks attacks, Francis did an excellent job of nullifying that advantage.

Francis, however, did a poor job with table setters this year, allowing a .395 OBA to 1-2 hitters combined, a big reason the first inning was the worst inning for him. Look for the Diamondbacks to try to strike early against Jeff.

There aren't many hitters on the Diamondbacks who have face Francis much, but watch for the battle against Connor Jackson. He's homered four times against Jeff in just twenty three at bats.

Webb knows the Rockies well, facing them six times this season. Webb's splits against Colorado show the Rockies did a great job picking up hits in two-out RISP situations, driving in sixteen of the twenty six runs Webb allowed to Colorado. The Rockies did a good job of getting into those situations by drawing walks. Usually, Webb allows a walk every three innings. Against Colorado it was closer to every other inning.

The most dangerous hitter for Webb is Brad Hawpe. The rightfielder hit three home runs against Webb this season, and four in his career in thirty eight at bats. Todd Helton, in fifty at bats hasn't shown that kind of power but he has drawn sixteen walks for a .470 OBA.

Overall, with Francis fighting the DBacks power and Webb indulging the Rockies OBA, Colorado should be the favorite in the game. Enjoy!

My ALCS preview is available at SportingNews.com for your perusal.

I wanted to follow up on this post from earlier today with a chart:

Average Age per Plate Appearance, 2007

Team	Age per Plate Appearance
TB	25.8968
FLA	26.5022
ARI	26.5158
PIT	27.112
MIL	27.4572
ATL	27.6806
COL	27.7553
WSH	27.8273
KC	27.9728
CLE	27.9881
MIN	28.4262
LAA	28.5734
PHI	28.6549
OAK	29.0148
CHN	29.3848
TEX	29.4023
LAD	29.6429
CIN	29.6638
CHA	29.7298
SD	29.8494
SEA	30.0295
STL	30.1486
BOS	30.1508
BAL	30.2778
TOR	30.4977
NYN	30.6759
NYA	30.71
DET	31.0024
HOU	31.4301
SF	32.938

As you can see, Colorado and Cleveland pretty much hit the sweet spot for getting their offense together at peak age. (Age calculation is based on seasonal age.) The Diamondbacks aren't quite there yet, which makes their success even more impressive.

My NLCS preview is up at SportingNews.com.

Tim McCarver's been saying for two innings that Duncan should be out for a better defender in right. Casey flies to the wall with two out and Duncan doesn't make the catch. The official scoring is a double, but it's a ball that was catchable. Rodriguez will try to drive in Sean.

Update: Weaver strikes out I-Rod to end the inning. Jeff's struck out seven through six innings. He's shown great control, throwing 53 of 74 pitches for strikes.

Update: La Russa makes the move in the top of the seventh. Taguchi takes over in right, Wilson comes in to play left.

Anthony Reyes is through four and hasn't allowed a hit since the first inning. He's now retired 10 batters in a row. He's only thrown 47 pitches through the first four innings, 33 for strikes. The broadcast mentioned that he was tipping his pitches to the Mets. If that's true, he appears to have solved that tonight.

Update: Reyes pitches another 1-2-3 inning in the fifth, striking out two to bring his total Ks to four. He's already done his job. Any more outs he gets this game are gravy.

Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog.com entertains second guessing by Mets fans on last night's game:

"How do Cliff Floyd and Carlos Beltran not swing the bat in those situations. Take the bat off your shoulder, and take a cut."...

...wainwright has a zito-like curve ball, which clearly is tough to hit...i mean, i know we don't want to believe it, as fans, but the kid was just better than floyd and beltran in that spot, simply put...there is no getting around it...

...yes, i want to think, 'hey, just swing the stick,' but the hitter also must resist from swinging at a bad pitch, and we need to understand that that curve ball initially looks like a high fastball, because the rotation is so damn tight...in both cases, with two strikes, floyd and beltran dipped their back shoulder, twitching as though the ball was going to be high and in, and once that happens the hitter is rendered useless - he has no choice but to wait and see where the ball lands...it just so happens the ball eventually spun down through the strike zone...

...i can't blame them, the best hitters in the league have been dealing with this forever...it happens...the game was not lost in these specific two at-bats, i'm sorry to say...

It was an interesting curve of the season for Beltran. He started the year booed, A-Rod like, for not living up to his contract. He then puts up MVP numbers and leads the Mets to the post season. He ends the year, however, watching the last pitch of the season go by with the bases loaded, again looking like Alex Rodriguez in his worst moments this year.

It will be the Cardinals and the Tigers in the World Series. This turned out to be a game with mostly unexpected heroes. Jeff Suppan pitches his second great game seven, having out-pitched Clemens two years ago. Endy Chavez made one of the great catches in playoff history, one we'll be seeing along with Mays and Swoboda. Oliver Perez gives the Mets a great start, but Yadier Molina makes it all for naught with a ninth inning, two-run homer. Even in the bottom of the ninth, but two worst hitters on the Mets came through, but the big bats didn't.

It was a very even series, in doubt until the last pitch. Congratulation to the Cardinals on a great win, and on to the World Series!

Wainwright is on to try to close out the series. Valentin bats.

Update: Valentin dumps one into shallow center for a lead off single. I'm amazed Chavez is hitting. I'd rather see Franco or a limping Floyd.

Update: Chavez lines a single the opposite way to right. Wainwright was given the gift of the bottom of the order and allows two singles. It looks like Floyd will pinch hit.

Update: Floyd is swinging for the fences as he swings and misses at the first pitch.

Update: Wainwright catches Floyd looking at a beautiful breaking ball. One down and Reyes up.

Update: Reyes hits a 1-2 pitch hard, but it hangs up for Jim Edmonds. Paul Lo Duca comes up, and he'll try to emulate Gary Carter.

Update: Wainwright walks Lo Duca, loading the bases and bringing up Beltran. The Mets are going to win or lose with their best. Hernandez runs for Lo Duca, so a ball in the gap likely wins the game.

Update: Wainwright gets ahead of Beltran 0-2. He throws another great breaking ball and Beltran is caught looking! The Cardinals win the pennant! What a fantastic game!

Heilman stays in and strikes out Edmonds for his third K of the game. Heilman is an excellent choice for a reliever at this point. With experience as a starter, Randolph can leave him in a long time as long as he pitches well, and wait to see if the Mets get a lead before going to Wagner.

Update: Rolen singles, and Molina follows with a homer over the left field wall that Chavez doesn't have a chance to catch. The Cardinals take a 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth. Molina had just six homers in the regular season, and only one with men on.

Update: That's all the Cardinals get. We'll see if it's enough. The bottom of the order is coming up. That is a big plus for St. Louis.

Jeff Suppan walks Carlos Beltran to start the bottom of the eighth. Flores comes in to face Delgado.

Update: Flores gets Delgado to offer at two low, outside pitches. He throws his bat at the first to foul it off, but goes too far with the second and strikes out.

Update: Wright strikes out.

Update: Green grounds out to end the inning.

Aaron Heilman starts the top of the eighth on the mound for the Mets. He gets Eckstein to ground to first. David's 1 for 3 tonight.

Spiezio bats for Wilson.

Update: Spiezio's roots are showing tonight.

Update: Hielman strikes out Spiezio looking. It's Pujols time.

Update: After the Mets fall behind Pujols, they intentionally walk him.

Update: Heilman gets out of the inning, still tied at one.

Michael Tucker pinch hits for Bradford.

Update: Tucker works Suppan a bit but flies out to center for the first out.

Update: Reyes grounds out. He's not repeating his game of last night as he's now 0 for 4. Beltran and Wright remain the only Mets with a hit in this game.

Update: Lo Duca grounds out to end the inning. Suppan is through seven with 99 pitches thrown. He's issued walks, but allowed just two hits. That's what Maine did in 5 1/3 innings last night.

Chad Bradford starts the seventh for the Mets. A tremendous start for Oliver Perez as he strikes out four and walks just two through six innings of one run ball. He has Endy Chavez to thank for keeping the Cardinals at one run.

Update: It looks like the rain is starting to come down harder, too.

Update: Bradford retires the side in order. The Mets have nine outs to the Cardinals six at this point.

The Mets are trying to keep the momentum going in the bottom of the sixth. They've loaded the bases on two walks an error with one out. Valentin is up.

Update: Suppan strikes out Valentin. Now Chavez gets a chance to follow up his defense with some offense.

Update: Chavez still stinks with the bat. He flies out to center on the first pitch. The teams go to the seventh still tied at 1.

With one out in the sixth inning, Oliver Perez issues his first unintenitonal walk of the game. Control was Perez's problem the last two years, and he's been in control the last two games.

Update: Endy Chavez makes a play for the ages. After a visit by Randolph, Rolen hits the first pitch from Perez high and hard. Chavez goes back to the fence, leaps, reaches over, and catches the home run ball for the second out. Edmonds, thinking it was gone, is all the way around second. Chavez throws to the cutoff man, who throws to first for the double play. The Cardinals go from a 3-1 lead to having the Mets bat in the bottom of the sixth with the game tied at one. Chavez just made up for his poor offense in this series.

Suppan retires his seventh batter in a row as the Mets go in order for the second straight inning. He's thrown just 36 pitches through three innings.

David Eckstein pulls a 3-2 pitch down the leftfield line for a double to leadoff the top of the third. The score is still tied at one.

Update: Perez has not trouble with Wilson as he strikes out for the second time tonight.

Update: Pujols continues to get the Bonds treatment as Albert draws the intentional walk.

Update: On an 0-2 pitch, Encarnacion shatters his bat and grounds into a double play, 5-4-3. The Mets go to the bottom of the third tied at 1 with the top of the order due up.

Perez is in the strikezone, so Edmonds swings at the first pitch and singles to start the second. Rolen also swings at the first offering, but flies out to center.

Update: Molina bloops an 0-2 pitch into left, and the Cardinals have men on first and third with one out.

Update: Belliard bunts a ball past the pitcher's mound to the second baseman to drive in Edmonds and tie the game at three. It's a saftey squeeze, even though Belliard was a man with a hat!

Update: In case you didn't get the musical reference...

Suppan strikes out to end the inning.

Carlos Beltran smacks a hit down the leftfield line, runs hard right out of the box and just beats the throw to second for a double. Delgado gets a chance to make up for his error.

Update: Delgado walks on a 3-2 pitch. David gets the chance to be Mr. Wright.

Update: Wright bloops one down the wrightfiled line, and the single plates Beltran to give the Mets a 1-0 lead.

Update: Shawn Green lines to Rolen to end the inning, but the Mets score first. Kudos to Green for having an extremely clean batting helmet.

David Eckstein flies out to center to start the game. Rolen is in the lineup, Spiezio is not.

Update: Perez is very sharp in striking out Wilson looking.

Update: Oops. Delgado calls for a pop up in front of the plate, but Carlos drops it and Pujols ends up at second base. A poor play by Delgado.

Update: Encarnacion flies out to shallow right to end the inning. Perez was extremely sharp, throwing strikes in all parts of the zone. He threw 12 pitches, 10 for strikes.

A very impressive display of towel twirling by the Shea faithful as Fox throws to the ballpark.

This is one of those days I'm almost willing to chuck out sabermetric analysis and go for the great story lines of this game. It starts with the pitching matchup. Jeff Suppan is a twelve year veteran with one good year under his belt (2005 with St. Louis), and he's starting for the Cardinals tonight. He turned his career around at age 29 when he joined St. Louis. Before that he earned a .453 winning percentage and a 4.90 ERA. Since hurling for the Cardinals, he's gone 44-26 with a 3.95 ERA. He's a great example of a late bloomer, a pitcher who might have benefited from a couple of more years in the minors.

Oliver Perez also posted one good season in a much shorter career. Unlike Suppan, however, that one good season was spectacular. The idea that a team can help Oliver return to that form will keep him around the majors for a few more years. In his short time with the Mets he's already shown improvement, striking out more and walking fewer, although his home runs allowed remain high. He's certainly one of the more unlikely game seven starters you'll see. This does seem to be the post season of pitching redemption, so a great start by Perez would fit in perfectly.

One thing that should help Perez tonight is three of the righties he'll face are banged up. David Eckstein and Scott Rolen suffer from shoulder problems, while Albert Pujols is nursing a sore hamstring. I wonder if La Russa will play the hot hand and start Taguchi in left and Spiezio at third? Rolen did double late last night, but earlier in the evening he looked pretty bad at the plate. If one of the Cardinals walking wounded come through, it's another great story for the papers.

There will be comparisons to the 1986 World Series if the Mets win, coming back with two wins at home. Maybe even a Knight to Wright story if the Mets third baseman comes through.

There are a number of players on both teams I really like. David Eckstein, Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jim Edmonds, David Wright and Shawn Green. And the Mets manager, Willie Randolph, was one of my favorites growing up.

So sit back and enjoy the game. La Russa batting substitutions and Randoph's bullpen use should provide lots of second guessing. Look for unlikely heroes and starts stepping up. I can't wait.

Oliver Perez gets the nod from Willie Randolph for the start in game 7.

Thus it becomes official: Perez, whose 3-13 record and 6.55 ERA makes him statistically the worst pitcher ever to draw a postseason start, will start the game the Mets need to advance to the World Series.

Randolph's options were limited. He could have opted for Game 3 starter Steve Trachsel, who retired just two out of the dozen batters he faced and may have lost face with teammates when he departed after taking a liner off the thigh, or Darren Oliver, who pitched six scoreless innings in relief of Trachsel but hasn't started a game all year.

Perez went 5 2/3 innings in Game 4 and gave up three home runs, but emerged the winner in a 12-5 Mets blowout.

Perez likely won't get the chance to give up three home runs this time. I suspect the Mets bullpen will be active from the first pitch. Of course, he may pitch well. If Kenny Rogers and Jeff Weaver can put together fine post seasons, why not Perez? :-)

John Maine didn't have his control again, walking four and hitting a batter, but unlike game two he didn't give up a home run. His two hits were shorter this time, and that allowed him to take a shutout into the sixth. Carpenter pitched a fine game, but just didn't get the offensive support. So it's up to Suppan and a yet to be named Mets starter.

The Mets failed to score in the bottom of the eighth. The Cardinals have three outs to score four runs and send Encarnacion, Rolen and Belliard to the plate in the ninth.

Update: Wagner starts the ninth for the Mets. It's not a save situation so he could implode.

Update: Encarnacion singles to right-center to start the ninth.

Update: Rolen doubles off the wall in left. The Cardinals have runners at 2nd and 3rd with none out.

Update: Belliard grounds to third. Wright holds the runners and throws out Ronnie. Molina is up.

Update: Molina hits the first pitch to shallow center where Beltran catches it. Encarnacion can't advance from third. Taguchi pinch hits.

Update: Taguchi does it again as he rips a double down the leftfield line. That makes the score 4-2 and brings the tying run to the plate.

Update: Wagner falls behind Eckstein 2-0. But he gets David to ground to second base to end the game and force a game 7. I can't wait. It's a fun series so far.

Heilman allows a single to Pujols but that's it as New York pitchers post their eighth shutout inning of the night. Three outs to a game 7.

The Mets pick up two singles and two stolen bases to put men on second and third for Lo Duca with with outs. He hits a line drive single that plates both runners and puts the Mets up 4-0 in the bottom of the seventh. The Mets are six outs away from pushing this series to a game seven.

Update: Rolen makes an error on a grounder by Beltran. Rolen is in the game for his glove, not his bat tonight.

Update: No harm from the error as Delgado grounds out. The Mets pen now needs to hold a four run lead for two innings.

With a runner on first and one out, the Cardinals pinch hit for Carpenter with Duncan. Carpenter gave St. Louis six strong innings, good enough to win most games. He was efficient, throwing just 76 pitches, 52 for strikes. If the Cardinals were in the lead, Duncan would still be on the bench.

Update: Randolph brings in the right-hander Mota rather than the left-hander Feliciano to face the lefty Duncan. Duncan homered off Feliciano last night, but Mota gives up more power to lefties. This time, however, Duncan grounds into a double play. Mets relievers are two for two tonight, coming into the game and inducing the GDP.

John Maine issues a walk, then gets a fly out in the top of the sixth. He also reaches 98 pitches and Randolph goes to the bullpen. Maine didn't throw a high percentage of strikes (54 of 98), but he kept the hits low and the Mets should be very happy with his performance. Chad Bradford tries to continue John's success.

Update: Bradford falls behind Rolen 3-0, but induces him to hit into a double play. Edmonds executes a good take out slide, but Rolen is so slow he's thrown out anyway, despite the delay in the relay throw.

Maine finally controls the top of the Cardinals order, retiring Eckstein, Spiezio and Pujols, Albert on a strikeout. He's thrown 86 pitches through five innings. To his credit, Randolph has Bradford warming in the bullpen. Maine isn't going to be given room for error the rest of the game.

Beltran and Wright pick up singles to put men on first and second with one out. Green punches one to the right of Eckstein to drive in the second Mets run. Both Beltran's and Green's hits took advantage of Eckstein playing the left-handed hitters up the middle.

Update: That's it for the Mets. They take a 2-0 lead to the top of the fifth. Through four innings, both pitchers put six men on base, but all of Carpenters came off hits, while Maine used three walks and a HBP. That just doesn't move the runners very far.

Endy Chavez bunts for a base hit leading off the bottom of the third, but Maine fails to advance him with a sacrifice, fouling off a two strike pitch with a bunt and striking out.

David Eckstein leads off the third inning with a walk, the first issued by Maine. One every three innings was his rate during the regular season, but once again Albert Pujols is likely to come up with a man on base.

Eckstein steals second to put himself in scoring position for Spiezio.

Update: Maine strikes out Spiezio, and then intentionally walk Pujols. Even with a bad leg. Pujols is scary.

Update: Edmonds flies out to right, but deep enough for Eckstein to tag and go to third. Two outs for Encarnacion.

Update: Maine gets ahead of Encarnacion 0-2, wastes one outside then strikes him out swinging at an inside pitch to end the inning. Maine's pitch count is still high, however, as he's thrown 61 pitches through three innings.

Jose Reyes gets a low pitch from Carpenter and golfs it off the big scoreboard in right-center to put the Mets up 1-0 in the bottom of the first. He just made Maine's life a little easier. During the regular season, Reyes hit two home runs in six games vs. the Cardinals.

Update: That's all the Mets get as Carpenter retires the next three batters. To the top of the second!

John Maine gets Eckstein to ground out to third on a 2-1 pitch to start game six.

Update: Spiezio dumps a fly into right center for the first hit of the game. There's a man on for Pujols.

Update: Pujols singles down the leftfield line on a 2-2 pitch. Albert was going to stop at first, but Chavez threw to third which allowed Albert to reach second. Edmonds is up with two men in scoring position.

Update: Edmonds strikes out swinging, but Maine hits Encarnacion to load the bases. Scott Rolen is coming up.

Update: Maine gets out of the jam as Rolen flies out to right. John needs to do a better job of keeping runners off base if he's going to survive tonight, however. He's already thrown 27 pitches in the game.

It's the first do-or-die game of the NLCS as the Cardinals send Chris Carpenter to the mound to attempt to clinch a berth in the World Series. Rookie John Maine stands in opposition. Chris did not pitch well in game 2 vs. the Mets. The most telling statistic was his four walks and just one strikeout in five innings. Chris showed great control during the regular season, walking 43 and striking out 184. Maine is showing less control in the playoffs as well, walking seven in 8 1/3 innings after issuing a free pass once every three innings during the regular season.

My general feeling is that the Cardinals own the advantage with Carpenter. But he's pitched poorly enough in his last five outings that it's not a sure thing. I also wonder if Maine will make adjustments. With two post-season starts under his belt, you might think he'll have fewer butterflies this time around. This game could easily be a slugfest as a pitching duel.

The last time the Mets played a game six at Shea, it turned out to be one of the most memorable games in playoff history. I'm hoping tonight's is as good.

Enjoy!

With the win tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals take command of the NLCS. Tomorrow night, they send Chris Carpenter to the mound against John Main, a rematch of game two. St. Louis has to like their chances with the defending Cy Young winner on the mound. However, three of Carpenter's last five starts were poor. He gave up twelve runs over his final two starts of the regular season, pitched great against San Diego in the playoffs, then poorly again vs. the Mets. I suspect, however, he'll be at the top of his game tomorrow. The Mets need to work Carpenter hard tomorrow and try to get in the bullpen early. And it would help if Maine pitched more like he did during the regular season and issue fewer walks. It's going to be fun.

Endy Chavez leads off the ninth with Floyd on deck.

Update: Chavez grounds out to short for the first out of the inning. Floyd will bat for the pitcher.

Update: Floyd grounds out to Pujols.

Update: Reyes strikes out swinging. St. Louis wins 4-2 to go up 3-2 in the best of seven series.

Aaron Miles came in on a double switch, and triples to right with one out. That brings up David Eckstein. Miles picked up five triples during the regular season.

Update: Eckstein tries a squeeze, but Mota throws the ball inside and David fouls it off, getting his hand squeezed between the ball and the bat. He ends up popping up to second.

Update: Wilson grounds out to end the inning. The Mets send up the 8, 9 and leadoff spot to face Wainwright.

The Mets hold the Cardinals scoreless in the bottom of the seventh. New York sends up the heart of the order, Beltran, Delgado and Wright in the top of the eighth.

Update: Kinney picks up his third strikeout as Beltran checks his swing at a breaking ball in the strike zone.

Update: Delgado singles past the fringe of the infield. Belliard was playing deep, and got to the ball but didn't have a chance to throw out Delgado. The slumping David Wright is up.

Update: David Wright says, "What slump?" and doubles down the leftfield line to put runners on second and third. Flores will enter the game and face Shawn Green. Will the Cardinals bullpen be their undoing again?

Update: Green flies out to shallow center, and the runners hold.

Update: Wainwright comes in to face Valentin and try to pick up the four out save. Does Cliff Floyd pinch hit?

Update: No, Valentin bats.

Update: Valentin strikes out looking. That's four K for the Cardinals bullpen in two innings after Weaver only struck out one through six.

The rookie reliever comes in, strikes out Tucker, then Reyes and then gets Lo Duca to ground out. An easy and effective inning for Kenny, and the Mets are down to six outs for two runs.

Jeff walked a batter with two out in the sixth, but gets out of the inning with an Endy Chavez ground out. With 95 pitches thrown and his spot due up in the bottom of the inning, he's likely done. That three very good performances by Weaver this post season. I did not expect that at all.

Update: Duncan does indeed pinch-hit for Weaver, and sends one deep down the rightfield line for a home run. The Cardinals now lead 4-2.

For the second time tonight, David Eckstein leads off an inning with a single. It's the third time the Cardinals put the leadoff man on. Wilson follows with a double, and for the first time for St. Louis, the leadooff man scores. The Cardinals take a 3-2 lead and are in a position to get more.

Update: Glavine issues an intentional walk to Albert Pujols.

Update: That's it for Glavine. The Mets go to Chad Bradford.

Update: La Russa asks Encarnacion to bunt. He fouls off two pitches, then dumps a single into right to load the bases.

Update: Rolen strikes out on a low, inside pitch. One out, bases still loaded.

Update: Bradford does his job, and the Mets bring in Feliciano.

Update: Edmonds grounds to Delgado, who throws out Preston Wilson at the plate. Two down.

Update: Belliard flies out to left to end the inning. Nice job by the Mets bullpen to defuse the threat. They allow a bloop single to Encarnacion and that's it. The Cardinals, however, lead 3-2 after five innings.

Albert Pujols can still generate power with the bad hamstring. He just clears the fence in left for a one-out solo home run. The Mets now lead 2-1.

Update: With two out, Glavine issues his first walk of the night, putting Rolen on first.

Update: Edmonds singles to right to put runners on first and second for Belliard. Ronnie is hitting .200 in the series.

Update: Belliard grounds one between Delgado and Valentin to tie the game at two. Looking at the replay, Delgado broke toward first on the ball. It struck me that if Delgado went for the ball, he might have fielded it.

Update: Glavine walks Molina to load the bases. Weaver is up, and Glavine is having problems finding the plate right now.

Update: Glavine falls behind Weaver 2-0, but induces a ground ball to short to end the inning. The game is tied at 2 after four innings.

Neither is doing a great job of throwing strikes. Glavine is at 52%, Weaver 59%.

The top of the fourth is being delayed as they try to fix first base.

Update: They find a way to fix first, and Carlos Delgado winds up there as Weaver issues the first walk of the game.

Update: An alert fan helps the Cardinals. Green doubles down the rightfield line, and a fan reaches over to grab the ball and keep Delgado at third.

Valentin, however, picks up both runners with a double over Albert Pujols. The Mets get to Weaver in the fourth for a 2-0 lead.

Update: Chavez and Glavine ground out to end the inning. But the way Glavine's been pitching in the series, two runs may be more than enough.

Endy Chavez came into the game batting .133 in the series, but he doubles down the left field line with two outs. Unfortunately, Glavine is due up next and grounds out. It's one of those situations where I wonder if you should pinch hit for the pitcher? I think the Mets will get to Weaver, but Jeff pitched very well so far in the post season. You might need that one run.

David Eckstein shakes off the effects of the two dives in the top of the first to lead off the bottom of the inning with a single to right.

Update: Eckstein steals a base, but that's all the Cardinals get in the fourth. Glavine's scoreless inning streak continues.

David Eckstein dives for the first two balls in play, and appears to have hurt his left shoulder. The first dive resulted in an infield single by Reyes. On the second, he was able to force Jose at second, putting Lo Duca at first for Beltran.

Update: Beltran pulls a single into right to put runners at first and second for Delgado.

Update: Delgado grounds into a force at second. Three of the four balls in play have been on the ground.

Update: Wright strikes out swinging to end the inning. The sent five batters to the plate, but really didn't work Weaver as he throws just 16 pitches.

Please refer to yesterday's post. The only thing I'll add is that the day off likely helps Glavine more than Weaver simply because Glavine is older. It also means, however, that you may be looking at Oliver Perez to start game 1 of the World Series if the Mets get there, unless you pitch Tom on short rest to start the series, or if Orlando Hernandez is healthy.

Before last night's rainout, the logical choice would have been Tom Glavine. But with Game 5 pushed back, that would put him on short rest again if the Mets do finish off the Cardinals. As for El Duque, who threw a 72-pitch bullpen session Sunday - "He was excellent," pitching coach Rick Peterson said - he believes he can be ready to pitch Game 1. When asked yesterday about the assignment, he smiled and said, "Willie give, I take."

The rain is also likely to help the Cardinals offense, as Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds get a chance to rest their injuries. Although it seems all are in need of a longer layoff, the night off has to help.

Enjoy!

Filip Bondy puts mother nature squarely in the Mets camp.

She didn't think the Mets were quite ready on Wednesday, the scheduled start of the NLCS. Her main man, Tom Glavine, looked a bit weary. Mother Nature sent the rain again, gave him a sixth day off, and Glavine responded with seven shutout innings against the Cards.

But that created another problem on the back end, because now Glavine would have just three days' rest before his next scheduled start in St. Louis. Three days, the old woman had come to learn, was not nearly enough for these modern-day athletes.

Which brings us to last night and the point of this tale. There was no game. "I've turned into the Rain Man," Glavine said. It was no coincidence. Mother Nature would make certain her aging Met starter had four days' rest. Even if Glavine himself and Willie Randolph were telling people it didn't matter to them, they required rescuing.

Rain postponed game 5 of the NLCS tonight. Glavine and Weaver get to face each other on normal rest tomorrow night. Games six and seven are still scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.

This is the third anniversary of the last gasp of the Curse of the Bambino.

Tonight the Mets and Cardinals play a critical game 5 as the two game 1 starters face each other again on short rest. Tom Glavine starts on the road for the first time in the playoffs. He'll face Jeff Weaver. Both pitchers are at the top of their games this October. Glavine made two starts, allowing no runs in 13 innings. Weaver made two starts, allowing two runs in 10 2/3 innings. Both came against the Mets in game 1 of this series, and with Glavine's performance, that was enough for the loss.

Glavine's ERA goes up nearly two runs away from Shea. He tends to give up more long balls on the road. Weaver is a five inning pitcher, and on short rest he might not even get that far. Given the performance of La Russa's bullpen last night, Tony hopes he doesn't need to go to the pen early.

I see this game as both a toss up and a determining victory. If the Cardinals win, they send Carpenter in game 6 at Shea. I doubt he'll put together two bad outings in a row. If the Mets win, they just need one big offensive night like Sunday to win the pennant.

Enjoy!

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Batgirl discovers the real reason the Athletics lost to the Tigers.

From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

The topic was pertinent because St. Louis faced lefty Oliver Perez Sunday night in Game 4 of the NLCS and is scheduled to take on Glavine again tonight in Game 5. Perez didn't exactly mesmerize the Cardinals, allowing five runs - and three homers - in 5 2/3 innings, but that was more than some expected from a pitcher who was 3-13 with a 6.55 earned run average during the regular season.

Five runs in 5 2/3 innings is about what you might expect from a pitcher with a 6.55 ERA.

Albert Pujols gave Tom Glavine a reason to pitch well tonight:

If Albert Pujols didn't think Tom Glavine pitched well in Game 1, "then I hope I do something (tonight) to really impress him," Glavine said.

Mota starts the ninth for the Mets and gives up a single to Molina. Yadier is hitting .462 for the series. Bennett pinch-hits and strikes out for the first out of the inning. Miles is running for Molina.

Update: John Rodriguez pinch-hits for Eckstein and hits into a double play to end the game. Both starters were hit as expected, but the Mets made mince meat of the rested Cardinals bullpen. New York wins 12-5, and the series is tied at 2. The teams will get to play a game six. It's the first series this post-season that reached a 2-2 tie.

Carlos Beltran homers in the top of the seventh for the 12th Mets run of the game. That gives Beltran seven home runs in eleven post-season games against the Cardinals. With those seven homers, however, he only has 9 RBI.

Edmonds shows no ill effects of the crash into the wall as he hits a one-out homer to center to cut the lead to 11-4.

Update: Molina hits a two-out solo shot to cut the score to 11-5. If the Cardinals do that in the next three innings they can tie the game. Perez is done. He only walked one, but the Cardinals got to him with home runs. Still, it doesn't matter much as the Mets offense supplied him with plenty of support.

Hancock starts the sixth for the Cardinals. Reyes and Lo Duca start the inning with singles to put runners on 1st and 3rd for Beltran.

Update: Beltran draws a walk to load the bases. The Cardinals bullpen was very suspect down the stretch, and tonight they're showing why.

Update: Delgado hits the ball over Spiezio's head, and it bounces into the bullpen for a double. Two more RBI for Carlos gives him five for the game. The Mets lead 7-3. The rested bullpen just isn't working out for the Cardinals, and now they may end up over worked with Weaver, a six inning pitcher at best going tomorrow.

Update: Hancock walks right as six out of six batters reach. That's it for Josh.

Update: Tyler Johnson comes in and gives up an rbi single to Green and a bases clearing double to Valentin. It's not clear that the Cardinals will get another out. The Mets lead 11-3.

Update: Johnson gets an out! Endy Chavez strikesout to bring up Oliver Perez.

Update: Perez strikes out looking. Jose Reyes comes up for the second time in the inning.

Update: Reyes drives Edmonds to the wall in center where he makes a great catch with his back to the ball. He hits the wall, but takes the impact with his shoulder, not his head. I wonder if Jim should be wearing a helmet out there?

The Cardinals have their work cut out for them. The need to pick up 8 runs in 4 innings.

David Eckstein, the mighty mite takes Perez deep leading off the bottom of the fifth. Given that David has a .359 career slugging percentage, maybe Randolph should think about pulling Perez.

Oliver comes back to strike out Spiezio, but the score is now 5-3 Mets.

Update: Pujols strikes out. Maybe the home run woke up Perez. He only had one strikeout coming into this inning.

Update: Encarnacion flies out to center to end the inning. The Mets lead 5-3.

The Cardinals pinch hit for Reyes in the bottom of the fourth, so he's done. He allows two runs on two homers and gives the game to the rested bullpen. Thompson comes in and Lo Duca reaches on an error.

Update: Beltran singles and Delgado follows with a home run to put the Mets up 5-2. It's his third home run of the series.

Update: That's all the Mets get in the fifth, but the bullpen lets the Cardinals down. A good move that just didn't work.

Oliver Perez issues his first walk of the game at an inopportune time, as Pujols follows Spiezio in the lineup.

Update: Pujols hits into a force play.

Update: Encarnacion hits a ball between Beltran and Green. It goes to the wall for a triple to score Spiezio. St. Louis takes advantage of Perez's weakness, and the score is tied at 2 at the end of three innings.

Carlos Beltran hit his second home run of the series, a one out shot to right to tie the game at one. One out later, David Wright gets his first hit, a shot to left-center to give the Mets a 2-1 lead.

Update: The Mets exploit Reyes' weakness and in the middle of the second they lead 2-1.

The Cardinals put the leadoff man on for the second inning in a row, and with one out Belliard flies to center, but Beltran falls just short of catching the ball. Molina follows with a single to plate the first run of the game. After two, the Cardinals lead 1-0.

The Mets haven't scored, but they are wearing out Reyes quickly. He's thrown 52 pitches through two innings, about half his limit. He even walked his opposite number, Oliver Perez. If he keeps putting men on base, eventually they'll come around to score.

David Eckstein leads off the bottom of the first with the first hit of the game, a single to center. Eck is hitting just .167 for the series, but with a .333 OBA.

Update: Where everything went right for the Mets in Game 1, they haven't caught anything since. With one out, Pujols hits a shot to the left of Wright. In game 1, David catches that ball, but here he just deflects and deadens it. Reyes picks it up, makes a great throw to Delgado, but Carlos drops the ball (shows how slow Pujols runs). Delgado gets the error, and the Cards have runners on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Perez induces Encarnacion to hit into a double play. Both team threaten in the first, neither score. Reyes is avoiding the home run, Perez the walk so far.

Anthony Reyes retires the first two Mets batters, but walks Beltran and falls behind Delgado 3-0.

Update: Reyes loses Delgado, putting men on first and second for Wright.

Update: Wright falls behind 0-2, works the count to 3-2, then flies out to center. David still has no hits in the series.

Tonight's game holds tons of potential. With Oliver Perez facing Anthony Reyes, the smart money is on a game with tons of scoring. But it also holds potential for surprises. Anthony posted very good strikeout and walk numbers. His weakness is home runs, a bad weakness for a pitcher against the Mets. But if he can keep the ball in the park tonight, he'll surprise some people.

Oliver Perez pitched a career year in 2004, but came nowhere near that since. That was the only year he showed excellent control. Every once in a while, however, that control comes back, as it did on September 6th vs. the Braves and Oct. 1st vs. the Nationals.

So look for a high scoring game decided by the better bullpen. But don't be surprised if one, or both of these pitchers, finds a groove and pitches well.

Enjoy!

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Placido Polanco won the ALCS MVP. Coming into this season, I thought Detroit getting a full year of Palacido at second base would be one thing that improved the club. Instead, the Tigers made it to the playoffs despite Polanco, as he played well below his career norms and was injured to the point he almost hung up his spikes for the season. Quite possibly, the rehabilitation turned him around:

He had to rehabilitate his shoulder, and took a lot of extra swings in the cage before games in the postseason.

John Harper disagrees with Jose Valentin:

But if one play could offer a truer picture, it was Jose Valentin's attempt to stretch a single into a double in the fifth inning with one out. He singled toward the gap in right-center, but Preston Wilson moved quickly to cut off the hit, and, as every player has been told since Little League, you don't take chances on the bases when you're down five runs.

Valentin knows it. He's a heady player, and he could see that his odds were 50-50 at best, because Wilson has a good arm and he was moving in the direction of the throw he needed to make as he fielded the ball. Yet Valentin admitted he felt the need to try to do something special to change the momentum, give his team a spark.

So he went for it. And Wilson gunned him down easily.

"We were down by five, I know you can't afford to get thrown out there," Valentin said. "But the guy (Suppan) hadn't been in any type of pressure situation. I was trying to be aggressive and change the pace of the game.

"It took a perfect throw to get me. But that's the way I play the game. That's the way we've played all year."

Not really. It's true, the Mets have run the bases aggressively, especially Jose Reyes, but usually when they're ahead in games, not behind. They've rarely run themselves out of innings all season, largely because they've played with a belief that their bats would take care of business.

And usually, they were right.

Cardinals Diaspora is feeling somewhat superior this morning:

Dominance or overrated? Sorry Met fan, you can't have it both ways. The vaunted Metropolitan offense went limp on Saturday night making Jeff Suppan look like a combination of Bob Gibson and Walter Johnson rolled into a middle-aged pudgy white guy. In going a so strong 8 innings the damage wasn't limited to a demoralizing loss. Oh, no. The former Cub, Steve Meatball Trachsel managed to get the pen warmed before they had a chance to get cold. Nice job, cubby. Nice. So in summation the Mets are down 2-1 with 3 more games (?) in a row yet to be played with a very used bullpen. I have a distinct feeling that the overwhelming hubris of many of our new found friends below is weakened. The bandwagon is emptying. Jerry Seinfeld is cringing. It's getting ugly in second class land.

I do remember the 1998 Yankees falling behind Cleveland 2-1 in the ALCS, but the Cleveland fans I knew at the time were more excited that they might win rather than "in your face." And, as I wrote last night, Oliver saved the bullpen. It's not spent at all. They'll need it tonight, but my guess is Randolph won't let Perez get in as much trouble as Trachsel. I suspect he'll have someone warming in the first, just in case.

The Athletics offered neither recriminations nor excuses after the sweep by the Tigers. And maybe Milton Bradley is finally getting his act together:

But this was a different team. A team with veteran leadership and poised youngsters. A team that could absorb a player whom others considered a cancer and turn him into a star.

'I grew up,' Bradley said when asked what changed this season. 'You make so many mistakes, you've got to quit pointing the finger and look in the mirror and see what you have to do to be different.'

What Bradley grew into was the A's best player in this series. On Saturday, he had three hits, scored a run, almost hit another ball out, and made a great running catch -- most of it after suffering a pulled quadriceps running the bases in the first inning.

It was a great game on one leg, and he almost single-handedly won the game for Oakland. After all his troubles, it's nice to see his talent win out.

The Mets in the NLCS are going through something very similar to what happened to the Yankees in the ALDS. The Mets picked up a good win in game 1, suffered a comeback loss in game 2, then get shutout in game 3. The Mets offense hasn't scored in 12 straight innings; the Yankees got to 20. Their third baseman isn't hitting (no hits for Wright in the series) and only two batters are doing any damage, Reyes and Delgado (for the Yankees, it was Jeter and Posada).

Luckily for the Mets, they can't be eliminated tomorrow.

Jeff Suppan is out after eight innings. He allows just three hits and one walk. Jeff also saves the Cardinals pen, although they weren't as used as the Mets pen.

Update: Kinney is on to pitch to the top of the order as Reyes leads off.

Update: Reyes flies out to left for the first out.

Update: Lo Duca flies out to center. Let's see if Beltran can fly out ot right.

Update: No, Beltran flies out to Edmonds who tracks the ball down in left-center. The Cardinals win 5-0 to take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS.

The story of the game was the starting pitchers. Trachsel couldn't get many out, Suppan didn't let many on. Jeff even homered off Steve, showing just how poor an outing Trachsel pitched.

Darren Oliver just finished his sixth inning of work. The Mets haven't been able to score, or even make Suppan work much, but Oliver's work means the Mets bullpen will be fresh tomorrow for Oliver Perez's start. If he didn't pitch well, the Mets pen might have been blown out for tomorrow, and the Mets might be looking at going down 3-1. This way, if and when Perez gets in trouble tomorrow, the whole pen is ready to step in.

Scott Rolen makes a nice bare-handed grab to throw out Lo Duca to end the sixth inning. If you put Vizquel at short, you wouldn't need any gloves on the left side of the infield. :-)

Jeff Suppan continues to shut down the Mets offense. Through five, he's allowed just three hits, no walks and struck out three. The Mets helped him in the fifth as Valentin tried to stretch a single into a double and found himself tagged out at second.

Meanwhile, after allowing two of Tracshel's runs to score, Oliver hasn't allowed another run. It's 5-0 Cardinals in the bottom of the fifth.

With one out and a man on first, Jeff Suppan sacrifices. Delgado picks up the ball halfway down the line and tags Suppan with his glove. However, the ball is in Carlos' hand. If Suppan had run the ball out, he would have been safe, I believe. Instead, Suppan turned and went to the dugout.

Jeff Suppan gets all of a meatball from Trachsel and bounces it off the top of the leftfield fence for a home run. Where everything was caught by the Mets on Thursday night, everything is falling in tonight. Suppan has a .223 career slugging percentage with one home run. The broadcast just said his one homer was off Trachsel.

Eckstein walks and Wilson singles off Trachsel's leg. Maybe that will make Randolph remove his from the game. It's first and third for Pujols.

Update: Trachsel walks Pujols, loading the bases. Now they're taking him out for an injury, the ball off the leg. Good job by Randolph, getting Oliver all the time he needs to warm up on the mound.

Update: Oliver throws a wild pitch to plate one run, and an Edmonds groundout plates another. It's 5-0 Cardinals.

Update: Spiezio grounds out to the drawn in infield. Two down, Pujols at third.

Update: Rolen grounds out to end the inning. Trachsel is charged with five earned runs in only one inning pitched. He's allowed seven run in 4 1/3 innings pitched this post season.

David Eckstein picks up his first hit of the series, but Trachsel picks him off first.

Update: The pickoff is costly as Preston Wilson walks to bring up Pujols.

Update: Pujols singles to right to put runners at first and second.

Update: Edmonds pops up the first pitch to Wright for the second out. That brings up Spiezio.

Update: Shawn Green trips as he attempts to dive for Spiezio's fly ball. Spiezio triples for the second time in two nights and the Cardinals lead 2-0. He hit four triples on the season. As long as he gives Green a tough play, Scott ends up at third. If Green's foot doesn't get caught, he makes the catch.

Update: Spiezio is playing left, and Rolen is at third tonight. Rolen walks to put runners at 1st and 3rd. Steve Trachsel is going to need a lot of run support tonight.

Update: Trachsel walks Belliard. Steve has thrown 14 of 25 pitches for balls.

Update: Trachsel comes back and strikes out Molina to end the inning. The pickoff saved at least one run.

Suppan pops up Jose Reyes and David Eckstein makes the catch.

Update: With two out, Beltran picks up the first hit of the game, a single.

Update: Beltran steals second, but Delgado taps back to the mound on a 3-2 pitch. The Mets are retired in the first without scoring.

The Tigers take one more step in a magical season, defeating the Oakland Athletics 6-3. They pitched better, they hit better and they sweep their way to the World Series.

Granderson, Monroe and Polanco did a great job of getting on base. Ordonez didn't hit often, but when he connected it was big. Two home runs today, and he winds up with a slugging percentage of .588 for the series.

Meanwhile, the big three for Oakland didn't hit at all. Frank Thomas's hit total was 0. Swisher batted .100, but managed some walks for a .400 OBA. Sitting at the bottom of the order, it didn't do much good for the A's. There was a lot of offense from Bradley, but he was the only player on the team to bat over .300.

A lot of that was the Detroit pitching. They brought the same baffling pitches they used against the Yankees and handled the A's the same way. They held Oakland to just nine runs in four games. Now they get a week to rest and heal and get ready for which ever team comes out of the NLCS.

This also goes down in history as one of the few series to end on a homer. Ordonez joins Mazeroski, Chambliss, Carter, Boone (and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone). It's a great way to win.

Update: There a Wikipedia page on this. I forgot Todd Pratt and David Ortiz, both in the LDS.

Street comes on for another inning, facing pinch-hitter Thames. Marcus flies to center for the first out.

Update: Granderson hits a high liner into right-center, but Milton Bradley runs it down. Bradley is playing courageously tonight, as he injured his quad in the first inning.

Monroe follows with a two-out single to left. That gives Polanco the chance to be the hero.

Update: Polanco singles to put runners on 1st and 2nd. Ordonez gets a chance to drive in the winning run.

Update: Magglio Ordonez gets all of a 1-0 pitch and drives it deep into the leftfield seats. The Tigers win the pennant! The Tigers win the pennant!

Correction: Fixed the location of the home run.

Kielty pops out, but Kendall singles to put the go-ahead run on base with one out.

Update: Kotsay flies out to left. That brings Bradley to the plate. The offense, this series, is concentrated in Milton.

Update: Bradley drives it to the warning track in right, but it falls in the glove of Ordonez. The Tigers get the chance to win the game with one run in the bottom of the ninth.

Street retires the side in order in the bottom of the eighth. He looked shaky on his first few pitches to Rodriguez, but came back to strike out I-Rod and one other in the inning.

Milton Bradley picks up his ninth hit of the series. He's batting .529. They could use a few more hits from others, however, as Frank Thomas grounds into a 4-6-3 double play to erase the leadoff runner.

Update: That's the seventh double play the A's hit into so far this series. They came into this game with a team .290 OBA. Take away those base runners on double plays and it's even worse.

Update: Grilli follows up the double play with walks to Chavez and Payton. That brings up the slumping Swisher.

Update: Grilli walks Swisher on his twelfth straight ball. That's if for Grilli.

Update: Ledezma comes in to face Scutaro with the bases loaded.

Update: Scutaro pops up behind the plate to Rodriguez. The A's and Tigers both let bases loaded situations go by the boards.

The Tigers used my dinner time to score three runs, two in the fifth and an Ordonez homer in the sixth that helps chase Haren from the game. Dan pitches five innings, allowing seven hits and two walks while striking out seven. The Tigers hit .500 against him when they put the ball in play. Bonderman reaches 100 pitches after 6 2/3 innings, then comes out. The A's worked his pitch count in the first but not the rest of the game.

The Tigers just put the go-ahead run at second with one out in the seventh on a walk and a single by Monroe and Polanco, respectively.

Update: Colero walks Ordonez to load the bases, and it looks like the A's are going to Street in the seventh. This is absolutely the right moment to use your best pitcher. The season is on the line here, and Detroit is sending their best hitter, Carlos Guillen to the plate.

Update: Street induces a grounder to Chavez. Eric stepped on third, threw across the diamond, and completed the double play. It's not a save, but Street keeps hope alive.

A single by Polanco and a walk by Guillen put Tigers at 1st and 2nd with one out for I-Rod in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: Haren picks up strikeout number seven as he retires Ivan Rodriguez swinging.

Update: Gomez strikes out to end the inning. Haren bends, but he doesn't break. It's still 3-0 A's.

Jay Payton earned his sixth spot in the lineup with a home run to left to extend the Athletics lead to 3-0. I still don't understand batting Payton in front of Swisher. He neither gets on base enough to give Swisher RBI opportunities, nor does he have enough power to drive in anyone on in front of him.

Swisher follows up with a single, his first hit of the ALCS.

That's all the A's get. But the way Haren's pitching, that may be enough.

Dan Haren keeps the Ks coming, striking out two in an inning for the third inning in a row. He's also throwing less than 15 pitches per inning. The A's lead 2-0 after three.

Milton Bradley singles to left on what should have been a double. He was clearly in pain as he rounded first. Thomas flies out to end the third, however. The question is how long do you leave him in? Are the A's going to lose this game because Milton can't make a defensive play?

The Tigers get their first hit, but Haren picks up two more strikeouts to run his total to four. This may be the game the Oakland offense and defense get in sync.

Bonderman retires the A's 1-2-3 in the second, without throwing many pitches. The Athletics worked the count well in the first, but they didn't follow through in the second. He's at 37 pitches through two innings.

Curtis Granderson continues to show a good eye as he leads off the bottom of the first with a walk. Haren does recover and strikes out Monroe.

Update: A ground ball and strikeout later, Haren is out of the inning with no damage. He's now struck out as many in this game as he did in six innings vs. the Twins.

Jeremy Bonderman gets off to a good start, striking out Kendall looking on three pitches.

Update: But he follows that up with a walk to Kotsay.

Update: Milton Bradley works the count to 3-2, then doubles to left-center, just out of the reach of Granderson. The A's great on top early, as Kotsay was running on the play and lead 1-0.

Update: Bradley was moving on a foul ball by Thomas and appears to have injured his leg. He stays in, but Thomas eventually pops out foul. Bradley and Thomas each worked the count full, and they've managed to get Bonderman's pitch count up this inning.

Chavez rifles one down the rightfield line. A fan picks it up, and Bradley doesn't need to run hard to score. It's 2-0 A's.

Update: Payton grounds out to end the inning. We'll see if Haren can hold the lead.

The Tigers go for the sweep of Oakland Athletics, and history implies they'll get the win. The team that won the first three games of a series went on to win game four 22 of 28 times. Jeremy Bonderman gets the chance to win his second clinching game. Dan Haren gets the job of trying to extend the Athletics life in the playoffs. Haren didn't pitch great in game 3 of the ALDS, but he didn't allow many runs, either. He only struck out 2 in six innings. He'll need to be closer to his seasonal K per 9 today.

Bonderman put together the start of his career in the ALDS. His fielding independent stats indicate performances like that should be commonplace for him. Oakland was able to put the ball in play against Bonderman in his only start against them. Jeremy only struck out one in seven innings against them.

One way the rain out helped the Cardinals was moving Jeff Suppan's first start to St. Louis. Suppan is 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA at home, 5-5 with a 5.36 ERA on the road. If the rain out didn't happen, he'd have two starts at Shea. Trachsel was hit pretty hard by St. Louis this year, giving up three home runs in 12 innings.

Enjoy!

Scott Rolen and Tony La Russa aren't getting along very well these days:

La Russa defended his decision not to personally notify Rolen, citing the player's reaction to being held out of a game Sept. 21 against the Houston Astros.

Rolen construed the game off as a benching against Astros starter Roy Oswalt, against whom Rolen had enjoyed little career success.

"The last time in Houston I sat him down for 10 minutes and explained it to him. My explanation was worthless, so what am I going to say?" La Russa said. "The last time I talked to him it was a worthless exercise. He didn't want to hear it. He didn't believe it. He didn't understand it. I 'benched' him, which is so opposite what that conversation was about."

I always assumed Rolen's desire to leave Philadelphia was caused by Bowa and Greene mishandling him. Now I'm not so sure.

The relationship between Rolen and La Russa has been described by club sources as one of growing mistrust. La Russa acknowledged being disappointed by Rolen's refusal to disclose his weakened shoulder condition despite repeated inquiries last month.

"I told him, 'We lost when you're playing. We can lose without you playing. We want to get you well,'" La Rusa said. "One of the things we said we wanted was to get him here in October strong and fresh. But he wouldn't' admit to that, so we didn't rest him. Then he said he was fatigued."

La Russa minimized the chances that the issue would carry lasting repercussions. "I'm not going to create a problem. I can't believe he's going to create the problem. So where's the problem, except he's worried about playing?" the manager said. "I'm just trying to win the game, buddy."

It appears two huge egos are clashing here. Rolen's a great player, but even without injuries he's on the downside of his career. That alone is difficult for a hyper-competitive athlete to accept. With his shoulder hastening the process, it must be even tougher for Scott.

Are the Tigers about to sweep the Athletics? The comments printed by Wayne Drebs appear to indicate Oakland is a defeated team:

"We've run into a better team," Oakland third baseman Eric Chavez said. "And there's really nothing you can do. They've been better than us in every aspect of the game. I don't have any problem saying that."

What about the 2004 Red Sox?

"We're not the Red Sox," outfielder Milton Bradley said. "We don't exactly have David Ortiz."

I've often wondered why teams that go 3-0 sweep more often that go five games. One reason may be that a team that wins three in a row is truly better than the other team. But I also think this article points toward the mental state of the team that loses the first three. Bradley's statement is especially negative.

There have been 28 series (best of seven or best of nine) in which one team took the first three games. If the contestants were evenly matched, we'd expect 14 game fours to result in wins for the trailing team. Instead, only six teams managed to win game four. That's a 214 winning percentage. The probability of evenly matched teams only winning 6 of 28 is .002. There's more than luck involved here.

The Cardinals Mets game tonight was all about the bullpens. St. Louis relievers pitched four strong innings, allowing just one run and three hits. The Mets, on the other hand, pitched one more inning and gave up five runs, including a homer to a player who hit two all season. What was a well rested NY pen saw four relievers throw well over 20 pitches while no reliever on the Cardinals threw more than 15. The Mets may need a long start from Trachsel tomorrow.

Tyler Johnson enters in the ninth to try to close out the Mets.

Update: Johnson strikes out Delgado, and Wainwright comes in to pitch.

Update: Rolen's in for defense and makes a great play on David Wright, diving to his left to make the stop. It's up to Shawn Green.

Update: Green grounds out to second to end the game. The Cardinals get the split they needed and now hold home field advantage in the series.

The Mets bring in Billy Wagner in the ninth with the score tied. He faces Taguchi leading off the inning.

Update: So Taguchi hits his second home run of the post season, equalling his regular season total. The Cardinals take a 7-6 lead as Billy Wagner gets in line for the loss.

Update: Pujols follows with a double to set up a possible insurance run.

Update: Spiezio doubles with one out to drive in Pujols. The Cardinals are three for four vs. Wagner tonight with three extra-base hits. St. Louis leads New York 8-6.

Update: Wagner has nothing tonight. Encarnacion singles to drive in Spiezio to extend the lead to 9-6.

Update: The inning ends with the Cardinals up three runs. The Mets have three outs to score that many.

Jose Reyes singles with one out. This is why La Russa didn't pinch run for Molina.

Update: No steal attempt, but Lo Duca walks to advance Reyes to second. Beltran is up against Kinney.

Update: Beltran grounds into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. Carlos Delgado will lead off the ninth for the Mets. He's already hit two home runs in the game.

Yadier Molina picks up his third hit of the night, a one out single in the eighth. Preston Wilson pinch-hits for Flores.

Update: Wilson strikes out swinging. Two down for Eckstein.

Update: David grounds out to second to end the inning. The Cardinals will send Duncan, Pujols and Edmonds to the plate in the ninth.

Update: Taguchi comes in to play left. He'll lead off the ninth.

The Mets only pick up a two-out single in the seventh. The game remains tied at six as the Cardinals come to bat in the top of the eighth.

Albert Pujols picks up his first hit of the series with two out in the 7th. He lines a ball down the left field line, but once again the Mets defense is up to the task as Chavez plays the carom well and holds Albert to a single. Edmonds walks to put men on first and second for Spiezio.

Update: Scott Spiezio hits a ball to the top of the wall down the right field line. Green leaps and keeps the ball in the park, deflecting it with his glove to the top of the fence. A catch would have been fantastic, but Green prevented the go-ahead run from scoring. The score is tied at six as the umpires confer.

Update: The umpires rule the play a triple, correctly. The Cardinals have Spiezio at third with two out. Tony's looking smart for starting the other Scott at third.

Update: Encarnacion grounds out to end the inning. But the Cardinals come back to tie the game at the stretch.

Jose Reyes scores on a Lo Duca double down the left field line. With Jose's speed, their wasn't even a play at the plate. The Mets lead 6-4.

Update: Belliard ranges far to his right past second base to throw out Beltran at first. A nifty play.

Update: Delgado pulls the ball this time and grounds out. The Mets take a 6-4 lead to the seventh.

Rodriguez comes out to pinch-hit for Carpenter with two out and Molina on first. Carpenter leaves the game with 4 walks and 1 strikeout in five innings. In the last two seasons, he's never had a game where he's walked more than he struck out. The last time he walked more than he struck out in a regular season game was 8/10/2004. He walked one and struck out none that day.

With one out in the fifth, Carlos Delgado hits his second home run of the night. Once again, he goes the other way, driving the ball even more toward left field. The Mets lead 5-4. David Wright follows by grounding to Belliard and reaching on an error.

Chad Bradford starts the fifth in relief of John Maine. He threw 88 pitches, only 47 for strikes.

Update: Bradford retires the side in order. Halfway through the game, it remains tied at 4.

David Eckstein walks with two out in the top of the fourth, then attempts to steal second. Lo Duca throws the ball into centerfield for the second Mets error of the game, and David ends up on third.

Update: Maine strikes out Duncan to end the inning. He's struck out three but walked five. He's close to taking the reciprocal of his regular season K/BB.

Albert Pujols draws a walk and Jim Edmonds drives him in with an opposite field home run. It wasn't quite as far as Delgado's but it was far enough to tie the game at four.

Endy Chavez and John Maine start the Mets second just like the first, with a double and a sacrifice.

Update: Reyes follows with a single to make the score 4-2. Mets fans, what is the crowd singing? It sounds like, "Jose, Jose." Is that a particular song?

A walk and an error in the top of the second put runners at 1st and 3rd with no one out for Juan Encarnacion.

Update: Encarnacion walks to load the bases. It looks like the strike zone is tight tonight.

Update: Belliard hits an infield fly for the first out. Bases still loaded for Molina.

Update: Molina doubles on a line drive over Delgado. Yesterday, that would have been lower and caught. Tonight, it plates two and keeps the inning going. The Cardinals score their first two runs of the series.

Update: Molina is now 6 for 15 in the series. Carpenter strikes out and Eckstein hits a soft pop to end the inning. The Cardinals make it a one-run game, 3-2 Mets in the middle of the second.

Jose Reyes doubles to right to start the first for the Mets. Lo Duca bunts him to third, as the Mets waste outs early. However, given that Carpenter gives up so few runs, it's not the worst strategy to employ.

Update: Beltran draws a walk to bring Delgado to the plate.

Update: Delgado goes the other way, smacking a ball into the left-center bleachers to put the Mets up 3-0. So far all five Mets runs in the series came via the home run.

Update: Carpenter walks Wright. Given the way the inning progressed, the bunt appears to have been the wrong play.

Update: David Wright avoids a double play twice on one grounder. Green hits the ball to Belliard. Wright is running but turns about so Belliard can't tag him. Belliard throws to first get Green, Pujols makes a good throw to Eckstein to get Wright, but Eckstein misses the tag the first tie, giving Wright a chance to get his hand in.

That's all the Mets do in the inning, however and they hold a 3-0 lead after one.

David Eckstein flies out to center to start game 2 of the NLCS.

Update: Maine retires the Cardinals 1-2-3 as Pujols is roundly booed.

Todd Jones comes on to close the game against the top of the Oakland order.

Update: Kendall grounds out to start the inning.

Update: Kotsay hits a slow roller to second and Polanco throws him out. It's up to Milton Bradley.

Update: Bradley grounds the first pitch to the shortstop, and the Tigers go up 3-0 in the series.

The Tigers pitchers allow just two hits and two walks as the Athletics offense is kept just as off balance as the Yankees were against Rogers. Kenny's pitched 16 innings in this post season without allowing a run, a far cry from his previous tries at playoff success. The Tigers have a commanding lead. As the Red Sox showed in 2004, it's not insurmountable, but the odds are very much in favor of Detroit.

In game two, the A's scored enough to win but the pitchers didn't come through. Tonight, the Oakland pitchers held the Tigers in check enough to win, but the offense didn't come through. Maybe the Athletics can get their offense and defense in sync tomorrow.

Mark Kiger becomes the first player to make his major league debut in the post season. He takes over at second after Kielty pinch-hits for Jimenez.

Update: Kiger gets a putout and the Tigers don't score. The A's go into the ninth once again needing to score three runs to tie.

Update: I suppose it's possible that Kiger never appears in a regular season game. He's going to be a great trivia question some day.

Nick Swisher walks to start the inning. Despite Rogers starting to leave his pitches up, Leyland is leaving Rogers in the game. Is Jim pulling a Grady Little?

Update: Rogers gets Scutaro to ground to third. The Tigers get the force at second, but are late turning the double play. And that's it for Rogers. Another impressive outing for the veteran lefty.

Update: Rodney induces Kielty to hit into a double play to end the inning. The A's are three outs away from a 3-0 deficit.

During the regular season, Curtis Granderson drew a good number of walks, but also stuck out often, 66 walks to 174 strikeouts. He drew three walks today after not drawing one in the entire post season. He's been putting the ball in play, however, as he's only struck out twice. That worked out as he came into the game with a .333 batting average in the post season. Granderson and Monroe walk to start the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Polanco tries to sacrifice, but Gaudin takes a gamble and throws the lead runner out at third. The runner looks safe on the replay. If the ump called it that way, the A's would be in a heap of trouble.

Update: Two more ground balls and the Athletics get out of the inning. They need to find some offense in a hurry. They're down to six outs.

Frank Thomas just flied out on the first pitch. I remember when Thomas first came up, he almost never swung at the first offering. That's at least the second time I've seen him do this in the post season.

Update: Rogers strikes out Payton and retires Chavez on a grounder. He's now gone 14 2/3 innings without allowing a run this post season. Given Glavine's performance this fall, it seems to be the playoffs of the crafty lefties.

Rich Harden hits the 100 pitch mark at 5 2/3 innings. He walks Inge and Macha goes to the bullpen. Detroit's offense approached the young pitcher exactly right today. They allowed him to be wild and took advantage of that before he settled in. They didn't chase pitches in the dirt, they waited for Harden to put the ball in the strike zone. Rich threw 105 pitches, only 56 for strikes. Chad Gaudin takes over on the mound.

Update: Santiago flies out to left to end the inning.

I just got back from dinner, and it looks like all I missed was Craig Monroe's home run. Rogers is spinning a shutout through fives, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out four. Harden hasn't walked anyone since the second inning. It's 3-0 Detroit at the end of five.

Harden issues two more walks in the bottom of the second, including Santiago, the worst hitter on the team.

Update: Once again, Harden walks Granderson on four pitches. Monroe is up with the bases loaded and two out.

Update: Harden saves his first strikeout for the right moment, getting Monroe to swing and miss a 2-2 breaking ball. He's thrown 47 pitches through two innings, 25 for balls.

Harden thows four pitches that didn't look close to the strikezone to put Granderson on with a walk.

Update: Harden falls behind Monroe 3-0, comes back to 3-2, but Granderson and Monroe execute a perfect hit and run, the ball going through the hole vacated by the second baseman. The Tigers have men on first and third with none out.

Update: Polanco goes the other way to plate to pick up a single and plate the first run of the game. Polanco is hitting .556 in the series.

Update: Ordonez grounds to the shortstop hole for a force play, but the Tigers score a run to lead 2-0. Polanco tries to take Jimenez out even though the A's second baseman is moving away from the bag. I had visions for a minute of Oakland losing another middle infielder.

Update: Guillen hits into a 3-6-1 DP. Harden recovers from his early control problems to get out of the inning with just two runs allowed. He was missing low early, and when he brought the ball into the strike zone, the Tigers were ready for it.

The Athletics and Tigers get underway with first pitch at 4:31. I've never seen a game start more on time. Kendall grounds one right between Inge and Santiago to start the game with an infield single.

Update: It's interesting that Santiago and Perez and both bad hitters, but Neifi bats second and Ramon bats ninth.

Kotsay pops a foul into the first row and Inge makes the catch and nearly dives in. A fan keeps him from falling all the way in, preventing Kendall from advancing. Bradley flies out to center, bringing up Thomas.

Update: Rogers gets ahead of Thomas 0-2 then hits him in the leg. At 44 degrees, that has to sting.

Update: Payton grounds out to Inge to end the inning. Like he did against theYankees, batters get on but don't go very far.

The Athletics and Tigers resume the ALCS this afternoon in Detroit as snow and cold loom in the weather forecast. Young Rich Harden takes on the experienced Kenny Rogers. Harden is an unknown in this game. He hasn't pitched much this season due to injury. His appearances result in a ton of strikeouts, a good number of walks and a few home runs. Although they've been better in the post season, Detroit's hitters were not known for their selectivity during the regular season. That could help Harden.

Rogers ranks 17th in the majors in ERA over the last two years (min. 300 IP). If you limit that to AL pitchers, he's sixth. And Rogers strength is exactly the strength you want versus Oakland, few walks allowed. The Athletics' OBA in the post season is .307, as the pitchers they faced do a great job of limiting the free pass.

The Tigers power goes down at home. With the cold weather, runs are likely to be scarce. If the A's can pop a couple of balls over the fence, that might be enough to win this game and give them a chance to comeback from a 2-0 deficit.

In New York, Chris Carpenter faces John Maine as the Cardinals try to even the NLCS at one game each. Chris is 2-0 so far in the playoffs, giving up a few base runners but not too many runs. His 12 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings and no home runs allowed are his stand out accomplishments so far. Maine showed the same strengths and weaknesses in his one playoff start. The difference was he didn't go deep into the game. But Glavine did last night, so the pen should be in good shape if Maine throws a lot of pitches early. That might not be so difficult, as the St. Louis offense is scoring under three runs a game in the post season.

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Albert Pujols didn't appreciate reporters pointing out his performance last night, and tried to bring down Tom Glavine:

A peeved Pujols snapped at reporters following his 0-for-3 outing that included a costly baserunning blunder in the Mets' 2-0 Game 1 win, claiming that Glavine wasn't fooling any of the St. Louis hitters and that the NL Central champs should have lit up the lefty.

"He wasn't good. He wasn't good at all," Pujols said of Glavine, who threw seven innings of four-hit ball for the victory. "I think we hit the ball hard, we didn't get some breaks.

"I say he wasn't good at all. We just didn't get some opportunities and that's it. . . . (Glavine did the) same thing that he always does. Throw a changeup, fastball and that was it. I just think we should've done a better job than we did."

Pujols is basically right, but when you go 0 for 3 and make a base running blunder, you shouldn't be denigrating the opposing pitcher who shut out your team for seven innings. Albert always seemed classier than that to me.

Today is Rich Harden's kind of day:

It snowed Thursday in Detroit, and major league officials are so concerned about the weather that they moved the starting time up to 1:30 Pacific time rather than the original start time of 5:19 p.m. Forecasts call for temperatures in the upper 30s with possible snow flurries. "Hopefully, it will slow their arms down," A's designated hitter Frank Thomas said.

The piping hot Detroit pitchers nailed down a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series, with the cold A's bats going 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position.

Rich Harden, who hasn't pitched more than five innings in a major league start since April 21, will start for the A's. Will his body be able to handle the frigid conditions?

"I'm from Canada. Come on," said Harden, a British Columbia native, breaking into a wide smile. "Maybe some of the guys from Texas like it in the 80s, but not me. I'm not too concerned about the weather."

Outfielder Jay Payton added: "It might be too warm for Rich. He might go out there in short sleeves."

Beyond the drop in temperature, 20 mph gusts are expected to take the wind-chill factor into the 20s. The forecasts are so dire that Game 3 could resemble an August night at Candlestick.

I was with the Baseball Tonight crew in 1997 for the Florida-Cleveland World Series. The temperature hit 90 in Miami, but when we arrived in Cleveland it snowed. We went from short sleeves to thermal underwear. Cold weather tends to dampen offense so we may see low scoring games in Detroit this weekend.

Update: Gary Peterson believes the Athletics are risking Harden's long term health by pitching him in this game.

The Cardinals hit the ball hard at times tonight to no avail. They lined out to infielders four times, one of those turned into a double play. It seemed every play that was close on the Mets part went their way, from the Endy Chavez diving catch to the Valentin range play in the ninth. If the Cardinals can hit the ball hard that often in the next game, I suspect they'll score some runs.

Good job by the Mets defense. They made the most of the opportunities handed them, and New York moves out to a 1-0 lead in the series.

Pujols leads off against Wagner.

Update: Pujols hits a rocket that Delgado snares for the hit. It's the second time Pujols hit the ball hard but right at a fielder. Valentin follows with a nice play on Encarnacion, ranging to his right to make the play.

Rolen, however, draws a walk to bring the tying run to the plate in the person of Scott Spiezio.

Update: Scott pops out to second to end the game, and the Mets take it by a final score of 2-0.

Paul Lo Duca singles for his second hit and Carlos Delgado doubles with one out. Wright gets the chance to drive them in as the Cardinals are pitching to him.

Update: Wright grounds out to a draw-in infield, and Chavez flies out to leave the runners on base. Billy Wagner will defend a two run lead in the ninth.

Tom Glavine leaves after seven innings and Guillermo Mota takes over. He gets Miles to bounce back to the mound for the first out of the inning.

Update: John Rodriguez pinch hits and strikes out swinging.

Update: Eckstein draws a walk. If Wilson can get on, Pujols will get a chance to put the Cardinals ahead.

Update: Mota falls behind Wilson 3-0, but comes back to get him to pop up on a 3-2 count. Pujols will lead off the ninth. The Mets still lead 2-0.

The Mets start the bullpen working in the top of the seventh with Mota warming up. Randolph is not making the Dusty Baker mistake of waiting until your pitcher is in trouble before getting the bullpen going.

Update: The pen isn't needed as Glavine retires the side in order. Tom's now pitched 13 shutout innings in the playoffs this post season.

Paul Lo Duca singles with two outs in the sixth to put a man on for Carlos Beltran.

Update: Carlos Beltran takes a 2-2 pitch over the fence in right-center to give the Mets a 2-0 lead. That's why you get Weaver out of the game after five.

Update: Carlos Delgado lines a double into the right center gap. He got all of a 3-1 pitch, and Weaver is blowing up on cue. Three straight hits with two out in the sixth. He's intentionally walking Wright to get to Chavez.

Update: That's it for Weaver. Left-hander Tyler Johnson comes on to face Chavez.

Update: Johnson does his job and gets Chavez to ground into a force play. But the Mets take a 2-0 lead, and Glavine's pitch count is just 79 through six innings.

Preston Wilson picks up a one-out single in the sixth to put a base runner on for Albert Pujols.

Update: Albert hits the ball on the nose but lines out to short. The Mets don't get a double play this time.

Update: Encarnacion flies out to end the inning. The Cardinals are getting more men on base, but they aren't advancing them very far.

The insertion of Endy Chavez works defensively as he's able to make a diving catch of a fly to left-center hit by Belliard in the top of the fifth.

Update: The Cardinals get a hit and a walk in the inning, but fail to score again. I'm starting to think the first team that sends a ball over the outfield wall wins this game.

In the second inning, Weaver fell behind Delgado 3-0 but induced a 3-2 ground out. With two out in the fourth, Jeff gets ahead of Carlos 0-2, but walks him. Chavez pops out, however, for the third out. Still no score. Glavine's thrown 42 pitches, Weaver 62. Each has walked a batter and struck out one.

Albert Pujols reaches on a one-out walk, but walks too far off first on an Encarnacion fly to shallow center. Carlos Beltran rushes in, makes the catch, then throws behind Albert to complete the double play. Aggressive base running leads to two double plays against St. Louis.

Shawn Green leads off the bottom of the third with the first hit for the New York Mets, a single.

Update: Glavine gives up a single to the opposing pitcher, then bunts poorly and Green is thrown out at second base for the second out in the inning.

Update: Reyes grounds into a force to end the inning. He took the first two pitches for strikes, even through they looked outside. Luis Gonzalez commented that since Weaver was around the plate all night, he's getting the benefit of the doubt. But Reyes also has a reputation for swinging at anything, and that might also be working against him.

Yadier Molina singles to break the run of outs. Tom Glavine leaves a pitch up in the strike zone and Jeff Weaver lines it the other way for a single to put men on first and second with one out.

Update: Weaver picked up four hits during the regular season. Eckstein lines to third with the runners moving, and the Mets get an easy double play. Still no score going to the bottom of the third.

Cliff Floyd hits a foul fly ball down the left field line. Preston Wilson has the ball tick off his glove, but Floyd was running on the hit and rounded first. He looked like he pulled up lame, but stayed in the game and flied out to left to end the inning. Cliff is going to be a real liability on the bases if he gets on.

No offense through two innings. Twelve men came up and twelve men went down. Glavine is being more efficient than Weaver, Tom throwing 21 pitches to Weaver's 33.

Update: Floyd doesn't stay in the game long. Endy Chavez takes over in left to start the third inning.

Jeff Weaver retires the Mets in order in the first, like Glavine, striking out one.

David Eckstein flys out to the injured Cliff Floyd in left to start the game. Preston Wilson grounds out to third on the first pitch. That brings Pujols to the plate with the bases empty.

Update: Glavine gets Pujols to take a bad swing at a breaking ball, striking out to end the inning. Tom throws just nine pitches, seven for strikes.

As expected, the Cardinals named Chris Carpenter the starting pitcher for game two of the NLCS:

Before Wednesday night's game was postponed, La Russa said a rainout probably wouldn't alter his rotation and he would likely stick with Carpenter in Game 3. But the manager changed his mind after a night's thought.

"It's his fifth day. That's when he's geared to pitch all year long," La Russa said Thursday.

Jeff Suppan was pushed back to Game 3, which is scheduled for Saturday in St. Louis. Rookie right-hander Anthony Reyes will start Game 4.

Suppan pitches better in St. Louis, so this gives the Cardinals a better chance of taking two of the first three games.

Blez at Athletics Nation explains why he's still optimistic about the Oakland A's winning the LCS:

Another reason to be optimistic is that for all the talk of the live arms of the Detroit staff, some of the A's hitters, namely Bradley and Kotsay, haven't appeared intimidated at all. 100 mph? No problem, I'll just use your power to whack double into the corner. 103? Pffffft, that's going yard, dude. The A's have also shown an ability to work the Tigers starting pitchers. And they've also come perilously close to scoring a lot of runs off of Jones.

Which brings me to my next reason...Frank Thomas will not remain silent forever. To me, you can point to a couple of determining factors in last night's game. Thomas' o-fer and Loaiza's struggles. The A's are down 0-2 and haven't had a quality start from their starting pitcher yet. Yes, a lot of that has to do with the Tigers and that freaking woodpecker Polanco, but the old cliche is true that great starting pitching beats good hitting. If Harden can be King Richard on Friday, then suddenly this can turn around very quickly. Don't get me wrong, the A's absolutely need Frank Thomas to awaken from his slumber. It would also be nice to have a Swisher sighting. But the A's very nearly beat the Tigers best starting pitcher (arguably) without any contributions from Swisher and Thomas. That bodes well for the rest of the series in my opinion.

The Athletics have a little more time to adjust in a seven game series than the Yankees did in a five game series. Still, these are two evenly matched teams. The odds of the Tigers winning two more games are about 80%.

MLB changed the start time of the Athletics-Tigers game on Friday to 4:30 PM EDT. The Cardinals and Mets will play game two at 8:00 PM.

Major League Baseball said Thursday that concerns about the weather Friday night in Detroit prompted the switch from the original start time of 8:19 p.m. The Tigers took a 2-0 lead in the best-of-7 series Wednesday night, winning in Oakland 8-5.

Friday was to have been an off day in the NLCS, but Game 1 in New York was rained out Wednesday. The Mets-Cardinals series was to begin Thursday night.

That and Fox wants the Mets in prime time to get the bigger audience. I'm not complaining, since I now get to watch both games, but I'm sure a few Tigers fans, who were planning for the night game now need to re-arrange their schedules. Then again, having the Tigers in the playoffs is probably more than worth it.

The NLCS kicks off this evening in New York. Jeff Weaver gets the game one start for the Cardinals against Tom Glavine of the Mets. I wonder how many pitchers released during the season got to make a Game 1 start in the post season? Jeff faces a tough lineup tonight. Unlike the Padres, the Mets boast one of the best offenses in the National League. Weaver and left-handed batters did not mix well, and the Mets, with either Floyd or Chavez in the outfield, will likely put six lefties in the lineup. And the Mets hitters were overall very good against right-handed pitchers.

Glavine's LDS start was more impressive. He also threw shutout ball, but for one more inning and against a superior offense. Lefties also gave the Cardinals problems this year, as their slugging percentage dropped 40 points with southpaws on the mound. So this pitching matchup would appear to favor the Mets.

This series also offers a chance to compare two MVP candidates, Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. The Mets contained Pujols a bit. In five games against New York he was held to five hits and one walk for a .286 OBA. But he managed to hit two homers in 20 at bats as he drove in nine runs. Beltran had simlar success vs. the Cardinals; few hits, but two were home runs in 21 at bats. Pujols is one of the top visiting sluggers at Shea this decade.

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The Cardinals are thinking about using Chris Carpenter in game 2, which would put him on his normal rest:

"That is his fifth day. You've got to seriously think about what that means. It's up for grabs in my opinion," St. Louis manager Tony La Russa said. "My first 30-45 minutes of looking at it, I said I'd probably stay with it. Sitting here for 15, there's more there. There's a decision to make, no doubt about it."

The other thing using Carpenter in game 2 does is push Suppan back to game 3 at home. He's been more successful in St. Louis than on the road this season. Both teams went with just four starters on the LCS roster, which means starters for game five will be going on short rest. Right now, that looks like Glavine and Weaver. Given that they are veterans, they should be able to handle it.

Ken Macha reacts to the ball that hit off Chavez's glove and the close play on the ensuing sacrifice fly:

"It's a game of inches," Macha said, "and the inches were on their side."

And the Inges, too. :-)

Scutaro leads off against Todd Jones.

Update: Scutaro is caught looking on a superb breaking ball. Melhuse pinch hits.

Update: Melhuse strikes out swinging. It's up to Kendall.

Update: Kendall keeps hope alive with a single to right.

Update: Jones falls behind Kotsay 3-0, works the count back to 3-2, then Kotsay singles to left center. That brings the tying run to the plate in the person of Milton Bradley. Men on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Bradley hits a soft liner over the head of Jones, and it rolls for an infield hit. The Big Hurt is up with the bases loaded.

Update: Thomas flies out to center to end the game.

Pitching was not on display tonight. Both teams picked up 11 hits and two walks. Oakland picked up one more home run, but the Tigers got the lucky hit, the Gomez grounder off Chavez's glove. If that ball is a couple of inches closer to third base, Chavez turns two and three runs don't score in that inning.

The Tigers did a better job of putting the ball in play. They only struck out seven times, while Oakland went down 13. The Tigers take a commanding 2-0 lead on the road; no LCS team has come back from losing the first two games at home, although it has happened in the World Series. In the words of the evil doctor Klahn, "Take them to Detroit!"

Street comes in to pitch the ninth to get some work, and Curtis Ganderson takes him deep to extend the Detroit lead to 8-5. The Tigers continue to pound the ball.

Update: That's all for the Tigers in the ninth. The A's have three outs to get three runs.

Rodney pitches the eighth, throws 13 pitches, 9 for strikes and strikes out the side. Swisher was one of his victims and is now 0 for 6 in the series with a walk and five strikeouts. Putting a ball in play would be a victory for Nick at this point.

Milton Bradley goes deep with two outs to cut the Tigers lead to 7-5 in the seventh. The A's are working back into this game one run at a time. It's Bradley's second home run of the game, and he's driven in four of the five runs.

Update: Bradley's two home runs came from both sides of the plate. Thomas strikes out for the third time to end the inning.

Alexis Gomez, a journeyman outfielder, hits a two-run homer to put the Tigers up 7-3 in the top of the sixth. His ball earlier ticked off Chavez's glove to drive in two others. Gomez had one career home run in 158 at bats, which is why he was bouncing up and down between the minor and majors since 2002. He's an unlikely hero for game 2.

Update: Chavez gets one back in the bottom of the sixth with a leadoff home run of his own. That cuts the Tigers lead to 7-4.

Update: After getting an out in the sixth, Verlander is replaced by Ledezma. Verlander threw 106 pitches, struck out six and walked just one. Keeping walks low is a great way to keep the A's scoring low.

Update: Ledezma comes in and walks Swisher.

Update: Ledezma retires the next two batters to end the inning.

The Tigers respond to the two A's runs in the bottom of the third with two singles to start the fourth.

Update: Loaiza comes back and strikes out Guillen. Still runners at first and second.

Update: Ivan Rodriguez takes four pitches outside the strike zone to load the bases. He only drew 26 walks all season.

Update: Craig Monroe lines a clean single to center, scoring Polanco from third. The bases are still loaded, and the A's lead is down to 3-2.

Update: A bit of defensive bad luck costs the A's the lead. Gomez hit a slow roller in the hole. Chavez ranged to try to turn the double play, but he can only reach the edge of the ball and it ticks off his glove into the outfield. Two runs score, and then a third on a sacrifice fly and the Tigers take a 5-3 lead in the middle of the fourth.

Milton Bradley is taking care of Oakland's problems with men in scoring position. He follows another Kotsay double with a blast to right field, a two-run homer to put the Athletics up 3-1 after three inning.

Nick Swisher strikes out in his first plate appearance tonight. Nick is now 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in this series. Verland struck out three through two innings.

Carlos Guillen starts the second inning with a double.

One thing I missed at the start of the game was Neifi Perez batting second. It's a good thing Leyland is a good motivator, because making out a lineup card doesn't look like his strong suit.

Update: Rodriguez grounds out but moves Guillen to third, then Monroe flies to Bradley in right to tie the game at one. Bradley made a nice play on a ball that was fading toward the line. That's all Detroit gets as they go to the bottom of the second tied at one.

Kotsay hits a one-out double as Ordonez knocks the ball down to keep it from going to the wall, but overuns it otherwise. Kotsay goes to third on a wild pitch. Leyland brings the infield in, and Bradley hits a soft line drive over the second baseman. It's an easy catch if the infield is back. The Athletics get their first hit with runners in scoring position and lead 1-0.

Update: The Tigers are giving bases away tonight as Verland balks Bradley to second.

Update: Thomas strikes out swinging for the second out of the inning.

Update: Chavez gets good wood on the ball but flies out to deep left to end the inning. Oakland takes a 1-0 lead into the second.

I'm sorry, I missed the top of the first inning, but Loaiza struck out two and allowed just a single. Eleven of his 15 pitches went for strikes. I'll take that from my starter.

I was on the phone with a friend who used to live in the neighborhood of the plane crash. I wondered, in fact, if that had been the building. In fact, they lived a block away.

Weather canceled tonight's game between the Cardinals and the Mets.

Game 1 of the NL Championship Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets was postponed Wednesday night because of a steady rain.

The best-of-seven series will now begin Thursday night, and Game 2 at Shea Stadium is to be played Friday -- which was supposed to be an off day in the series.

The tickets for tonight's game will be good on Friday.

Jason Marquis sits out the NLCS while Anthony Reyes gets the fourth pitching slot as the Cardinals announce their roster. I was really looking forward to the Marquis-Perez game as a night of offense.

If you subscribe to DirecTV, they are carrying both games tonight on FX. Channel 248 will show Detroit-Oakland,while channel 246 (FX2) will show Cardinals-Mets.

The NLCS kicks off this evening in New York, weather permitting. Jeff Weaver gets the game one start for the Cardinals against Tom Glavine of the Mets. I wonder how many pitchers released during the season got to make a Game 1 start in the post season? Jeff faces a tough lineup tonight. Unlike the Padres, the Mets boast one of the best offenses in the National League. Weaver and left-handed batters did not mix well, and the Mets, with either Floyd or Chavez in the outfield, will likely put six lefties in the lineup. And the Mets hitters were overall very good against right-handed pitchers.

Glavine's LDS start was more impressive. He also threw shutout ball, but for one more inning and against a superior offense. Lefties also gave the Cardinals problems this year, as their slugging percentage dropped 40 points with southpaws on the mound. So this pitching matchup would appear to favor the Mets.

This series also offers a chance to compare two MVP candidates, Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. The Mets contained Pujols a bit. In five games against New York he was held to five hits and one walk for a .286 OBA. But he managed to hit two homers in 20 at bats as he drove in nine runs. Beltran had simlar success vs. the Cardinals; few hits, but two were home runs in 21 at bats.

At the same time, the Tigers and Athletics play game two of the ALCS. It will be a battle of right-handers tonight as Verlander faces Loaiza. For someone who throws hard, Justin doesn't strikeout many batters, just 6.0 per 9 innings. But he's consistent home and away. Lefties slug about 100 points better against him than righties, but unless Eric Chavez has his stroke back, Swisher is the only real power threat from the left side on the A's.

Loaiza gets a huge boost from the Coliseum, with his ERA over two runs lower at home than on the road. That's probably why he's starting games 2 and 6. The park neutralizes lefty power against him. (Here are lefty-righty splits for home and road.)

I also wonder how long the Tigers staff can survive putting men in scoring position. Regression to the mean tells us that the Athletics are not going to continue to hit .000 with men in scoring position. I really wonder how wise it is to have Thomas and Swisher separated in the batting order. It seems those two back-to-back would give the Athletics a better chance of picking up the table setters, while also setting the table for the hitters that come later.

Enjoy!

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Cliff Floyd is on the Mets 25-man roster for the LCS. The complete roster is here. It looks like the Mets are carrying four starters and seven relievers. I haven't seen the Cardinals roster yet.

David Wright received some good advice last year:

During one of last season's lowest moments, as the Mets neared the end of a 2-8 early September road trip that knocked them out of the wild-card race, Willie Randolph put his arm around David Wright and had a private chat with his young third baseman as they walked back to the team's hotel in St. Louis.

"He told me that he wanted me to remember what it felt like playing kind of meaningless games in September," Wright recalled. "That stuck with us. It's a bad feeling finishing the season out and making plans to go home and not doing anything in October.

"It speaks for itself, but the difference between last year at that time and this year, to be able to come and hear the excitement, and how much fun it is to come to the ballpark every day, is pretty special."

Jim Leyland gets a little criticism concerning Neifi Perez.

This is my problem with Perez. It isn't that he's bad to have as a 25th guy, it's that Jim Leyland uses him as a 10th guy. I know that we're not supposed to criticize Leyland, but the decision to carry Infante/Perez/Santiago was a poor one. With Casey's injury and Perez as the stop gap, the infield defense is measurably weaker at 2 positions and a hole has been added to the lineup. Even if you don't like Chris Shelton's stick (and he did look woeful that last week), the impact would have been limited to adding a hole to the lineup and keeping the infield defense intact had he been available.

Yes. Unlike Perez, Shelton has some offensive value.

Todd Jones is coming in to close out a 5-1 Tigers lead in the bottom of the ninth. Swisher, Scutaro and Jimenez are due up.

Update: Todd Jones walks Swisher on four pitches.

Update: Scutaro pops out to second for the first out.

Update: Jimenez bats, and grounds out to second. I'm surprised there is no one to pinch hit for him. Runner at 2nd with two outs.

Still trailing 5-0, Milton Bradley doubles off new pitcher Zumaya to start the eighth for the Athletics. Zito and Zumaya are the last two pitchers alphabetically in the majors.

Update: Thomas grounds out to short, but Bradley advances to third as he was running on the pitch.

Update: Payton grounds out off Zumaya's foot, but the Athletics score a run. The A's are now 0 for 12 with runners in scoring position, 8 for 16 otherwise.

Update: That's all Oakland gets. The Tigers are three outs away from a game one victory.

The Oakland bullpen is keeping the A's in the game. They've pitched 3 1/3 innings without allowing a run. It's up to the Athletics offense here in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Detroit turns its fourth double play of the night, a nifty 3-6-1.

Rodney starts the sixth inning for the Tigers. He gets the first out but Payton doubles to put another runner in scoring position.

Update: The A's get a walk, but make two more outs and don't score again. Rodney takes up just where Robertson left off, getting into trouble but pitching fine to get out of it.

Brandon Inge singles in the top of the sixth with one out to chase Gaudin. That give Inge the single, double and homer. Inge picked up two triples this season, but knocked out 16 in 2004 and 2005 combined.

Update: The Tigers get another infield single when no one covers first base on a grounder to Swisher, but the Tigers do not score. The Athletics have four innings to pick up five runs.

Jimenez singles to start the fifth. The Athletics put the leadoff man on 4 times out of 5.

Update: Kendall reaches on a walk. He reached base all three times, twice by walks. Robertson is playing with fire. He keeps giving Oakland chances, and eventually they'll come through.

Update: Not that time. Kotsay grounds into a double play, putting at runner at third with two out.

Update: Bradley lines one into left, but Monroe makes a diving catch to end the inning. Once again, Robertson does not allow a hit with runners in scoring position. The A's are 0 for 8 in that situation, 6 for 8 otherwise.

Thomas walks and Payton doubles to put men on 2nd and 3rd to start the bottom of the fourth for Oakland.

Update: Robertson strikes out Chavez for the first out in the inning. The A's are now 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position.

Update: Robertson strikes out Swisher for the second time. Oakland can't put the bat on the ball with a man on third and less than two outs.

Update: Wow. Robertson strikes out Scutaro to end the inning. This one is playing out according to script. Zito gives up runs at home, Robertson gets in trouble up pitches out of it on the road.

Ivan Rodriguez leads off the fourth with an opposite field home run over the 388 mark in right-center. His blast puts the Tigers up 3-0.

Update: After a walk, a force out and an overthrow error on an attempted double play, Inge drives a ball off the left-center wall for an RBI double. That's four runs for the Tigers, and 1/2 a cycle for Inge. Once again, Zito is running into trouble in Oakland.

Update: With two out, Polanco singles up the middle to drive in Inge and make the score 5-0 Tigers.

Update: Casey singles to left-center to put runners on 1st and 3rd and chase Barry Zito from the game.

Update: Zito threw 92 pitches, only 49 for strikes. Chad Gaudin enters to try to stem the damage.

Update: Ordonez grounds out to end the inning. But the Athletics find themselves down 5-0 to a pitcher showing excellent control tonight.

The Athletics put the second batter on as Kendall walks. Kotsay follows with an infield single up the middle to put runners on first and second.

Correction: Sorry, I missed the first batter of the inning, who flied out. Kendall and Kotsay reached with one out, and Bradley grounds into a double play to end the inning.

Barry Zito gets the first eight Tigers hitters, but Brandon Inge pulls one just inside the foul pole for a solo home run and a 1-0 Tigers lead. Home runs in Oakland was Zito's weak spot this season. Granderson follows with a double.

Update: Zito issues his first walk of the game to Polanco. That puts runners on 1st and 2nd for Sean Casey.

Update: Another walk for Zito. He's now thrown 63 pitches, 30 for balls.

Update: Chavez ranges to his left on a grounder by Ordonez. The ball goes in and out of his glove and Ordonez reaches with an RBI single. It's 2-0 Detroit.

Update: Guillen grounds into a fielder's choice to end the inning. Barry's up to 69 pitches through three innings. He probably won't go too deep in the game. Robertson is throwing strikes, as 22 of his 28 pitches ended up in the strike column.

Eric Chavez starts the second inning with a single.

Update: That's all the A's get as Swisher strikes out and Scutaro grounds into a double play.

Barry Zito retires the side in order in the second, again on two grounders and a pop out. Still no score.

Jason Kendall gets the bat on the ball and singles to start the bottom of the first.

Update: With one out, Bradley singles to left to put runners on 1st and 2nd for the Big Hurt.

Update: Thomas flies out to deep center. I'm surprised Kotsay didn't tag up on that one.

Update: Robertson gets Payton to end the inning. He's been great with runners in scoring position this year, allowing a .199 batting average. The A's are 0 for 2 so far tonight.

Barry Zito retires Granderson on a pop up to start the 2006 ALCS.

Update: Zito get two ground outs to finish the inning. No score with the Athletics coming to bat.

Oliver Perez gets the nod to start game 4 for the Mets. He's facing Jason Marquis. It will either be a double no-hitter or 15 runs will score in the first two innings.

The ALCS gets underway tonight as two left-handers with nearly identical ERAs take the mound for the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics. Nate Robertson faces Barry Zito in Oakland, Nate with a 3.84 ERA, Zito a 3.83 mark. The two are very similar in hits allowed and home runs allowed. Robertson gave up two more long balls in 13 fewer innings. Zito is more likely to walk a batter. Nate walked batters at a rate of 2.9 per 9, Zito 4.0. Barry was just a bit more likely to strike out batters as well, 6.1 per 9 to 5.9 per 9 for Robertson.

A big difference that's applies directly to this game is their home/road breakdown. Zito finished the season 10-3 on the road but only 6-7 at home. His ERA showed close to a 2 run difference; 4.71 in Oakland, 2.97 away. Home runs especially were worse at the Coliseum, where 18 of his 27 dingers flew out of the park.

Robertson did better by about 0.7 runs away from Detroit. It's not exactly clear why, however. His walk, homers, and strikeouts were all about the same. It comes down to a bit of situational luck. On the road, he allowed a .149 batting average with runners in scoring position. At home, it was .237. My gut is Robertson is fairly neutral home/road, which gives the Tigers the edge as Zito was clearly at a disadvantage in his ballpark this season.

Oakland batters hit very well against left-handed pitchers this season. Their OBA went up 20 points and their slugging percentage rose 30 points. Detroit, on the other hand, suffered vs. lefties, seeing a six-point drop in OBA and a ten point drop in slugging percentage. So batting vs. lefties gives the edge to Oakland. That's borne out by Detroit's averages against Zito this season .143 BA, .333 OBA, .190 slugging percentage. The A's did much better against Robertson, at least in terms of power with .226/.281/.415 numbers.

Enjoy!

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Jim Leyland answers the question, why not start Rogers in games 2 and 6?

So why not start Rogers in Game 2?

'That's a great question,' Leyland said. 'I'll tell you why we did what we did. We felt like we considered that very strongly.

'But at the same time we felt like the effort against the Yankees was such a draining effort that we decided to give him the time, a little bit of extra time.'

That makes sense. Sort of. Rogers, after all, is 41 and in his 18th major-league season. But the A's have to love today's Game 1 pitching matchup of their ace, Zito, against the Tigers' No. 4 pitcher.

I wonder what Leyland is going to use to motivate the Tigers this time. He got the David vs. Goliath working in the first round, but no one, especially the Athletics, are dissing the Tigers now. Sometimes motivation is a one shot deal, like shaving down in swimming, or green jerseys for Notre Dame football players. Leyland got the players going early in the season by pointing out they didn't have the killer instinct.
That got them off to a very good start, but it faded. He got them back to that against the Yankees and we'll how far it carries into the post season.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog has the Tigers rotation for the LCS:

The Tigers are sticking with what worked in the ALDS in terms of their rotation. Nate Robertson will pitch game 1 and he'll be followed by Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman. This will be ripe with second guessing.

Right. For me, the biggest thing is missing out on Rogers pitching two games in Oakland. However, it does put Kenny in Oakland for game 7 if it goes that far.

I agree with Bilfer here to a certain extent:

Despite all that, I don't think it will make that much of a difference. As I said prior to the Yankees series, the Tigers have 4 very good pitchers that are all pretty similar. That right there negates some of the impact of the ordering.

One job of a manager is to maximize the probability of the players and the team succeeding. Every little bit helps.

On the surface, the Mets are clearly a better team than the Cardinals. They are better at scoring, and better at preventing runs.

2006 (NL Ranks)	Cardinals	Mets
Runs per Game	4.85 (6th)	5.15 (3rd)
ERA	4.54 (9th)	4.14 (3rd)

Even with injuries to Pedro Martinez and Cliff Floyd, the Mets still lead in stars 3-2. It's Pujols and Carpenter vs. Beltran, Delgado and Wright. Then when you get to the supporting cast, the Mets shine even more. Reyes, Glavine, Lo Duca, Wagner and Green can't be matched by Edmonds, Rolen Eckstein Wainwright and Suppan. Even Endy Chavez, likely to replace Floyd in left, had his best year getting on base. Willie Randolph got him to change his approach in a way that Frank Robinson couldn't.

You can see the superior Mets offense in their power:

2006 (NL Ranks)	Cardinals	Mets
Batting Average	.269 (4th)	.264 (8th)
OBA	.337 (5th)	.334 (8th)
Slugging Percentage	.431 (8th)	.445 (3rd)

Notice that even though the Cardinals ranks in BA and OBA are higher, there isn't that much difference between the two teams in getting on base. The Mets simply do a better job of moving those runners with long hits. The Mets also own a huge advantage in the speed game, with a stolen base percentage over 80%, while the Cardinals running game cost them runs; they were below the 67% break even point. The Cardinals were very good at stopping the running game and the Mets respected that. Jose Reyes was successful in all four of his attempts vs. St. Louis; no other Mets player attempted a steal.

Now for the pitching:

2006 (NL Ranks)	Cardinals	Mets
Batting Average Allowed	.268 (9th)	.253 (2nd)
OBA Allowed	.337 (7th)	.323 (3rd)
Slugging Percentage Allowed	.443 (13th)	.407 (2nd)

The Cardinals just aren't close. And with Chris Carpenter not starting until game three, the Mets could easily go up 2-0 in the series. Not that the back of the Mets rotation is that much better. Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez are likely to get starts. If game four turns out to be Perez vs. Marquis, you might see real fireworks. But the Mets have the better bullpen. Randolph can afford to bring his relievers in early, they improve the team. So, with his offense, he can afford to let Trachsel or Perez allow 3 or 4 runs over five innings. The Mets offense is capable of scoring more than that, and the bullpen is capable of preventing any more runs from crossing the plate.

So I see about a 70% chance of the Mets winning this series. Of course, when Juan Encarnacion hits .500 and Jeff Weaver pitches two shutouts, I'll be wrong. But the Mets certainly own the talent advantage. We'll see if that's enough to hold off any luck that falls the Cardinals way.

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The Oakland Athletics might use a player not on the 40-man roster to replace Mark Ellis:

Mark Kiger spent the last three weeks teaching baseball to a group of teenagers in Temecula, which allowed him to play catch every day and hit every few days, but never in his wildest dreams did he expect to get the phone call he received last Wednesday.

"What?" Kiger said was his reaction to Pamela Pitts, the A's director of baseball administration, after she told him to report to Arizona. "What?"

Kiger, who has never been on the A's 40-man roster and never even participated in major-league spring training, is one of two candidates to join the A's roster for the American League Championship Series, due to the injury to Mark Ellis.

"Every year you battle, but you don't think after three weeks you'll get the call in October," Kiger said. "I didn't know the situation here. I knew they were doing well, but I didn't know about the depth of the infield."

The A's don't care about offense here. They want someone who can catch whatever is hit to him to act as a defensive backup.

The ALCS looks to be a pitching dominated series, since the hurlers are the dominant members of both teams.

2006 (AL Ranks)	Tigers	Athletics
Runs per Game	5.07 (5th)	4.76 (9th)
ERA	3.84 (1st)	4.21 (4th)

Based on the full year statistics, the Tigers are clearly the better team. They're about .3 runs better scoring, and .4 runs better pitching. If you look at the in-season record, Detroit did dominate Oakland. The Tigers outscored the A's 52-39, but only won the season series 5-4. There were two big blow out wins by the Tigers in there, 10-4 and 11-4. Otherwise, the teams were even.

It's interesting to note both of those games were started by Kenny Rogers in Oakland. Rogers enjoys great success in that stadium. Leyland hasn't announced his rotation for the ALCS, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers scheduled for games 2 and 6 at the Coliseum. Given the relative success of the pitchers in the LDS, I'd go with Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Robertson as my rotation. The A's hit lefties better than righties, especially for power, so this rotation minimizes that. Robertson was the only pitcher who didn't shutdown the Yankees in ALDS, so why give him two starts in the ALCS?

The Athletics actually took a vote on who should be their game two starter.

Ten of Oakland's top decision makers held a closed-door meeting in the manager's office Sunday and cast their votes on who should start for the Athletics in Game 2 of the AL championship series -- Rich Harden or Esteban Loaiza.

The tally: Harden 5, Loaiza 5.

Loaiza won the tiebreaker based on his health, recent results and reliability. Harden has only pitched three times since missing more than three months with an elbow injury.

I wonder who cast ballots, and if there was a split between the sabermetricians and the scouts?

Let's take a look at the offenses in more depth:

2006 (AL Ranks)	Tigers	Athletics
Batting Average	.274 (9th)	.260 (13th)
OBA	.329 (12th)	.340 (7th)
Slugging Percentage	.449 (5th)	.410 (14th)

The Detroit offense gets a big power boost away from Comerica, which is one reason they had the top road record in the majors this season. But the Coliseum doesn't boost power, so we may be looking at seven games of Detroit's offense closer to their poor showing at home. The other thing that's tough to gauge is the reality of Oakland numbers. Over the last two months of the season, they traded walks for hits, keeping their OBA the same but raising both their batting average and slugging averages about 20 points. Take two teams (or players) with the same OBA, the one with the higher batting average is going to be the more dangerous team. Hits move runners a lot farther than walks do.

Here's a more in depth look at the pitching:

2006 (AL Ranks)	Tigers	Athletics
Batting Average Allowed	.257 (2nd)	.271 (8th)
OBA Allowed	.321 (3rd)	.338 (9th)
Slugging Percentage Allowed	.405 (2nd)	.422 (4th)

Detroit beats Oakland hands down here. They do a better job keeping hits low, and keeping power low. The two teams struck out the same number of batters, gave up about the same number of home runs, but the Tigers walked many fewer batters.

There are a lot of things in favor of the Tigers as you look at the numbers. The only place the Athletics have the edge is getting their batter on base. The Twins did a good job in the first two games of the LDS stopping the Athletics offense. I suspect an even better Detroit staff will do the same. It's then up to the Oakland staff to shut down the Detroit offense, and the configuration of the two ballparks should help in that regard by cutting down on the Tigers power. I'll pick Detroit, with about a 60% chance of winning the series.

All of Jason Kendall's former mangers are on the Detroit coaching staff:

Leyland was catcher Jason Kendall's first manager in baseball. Kendall will have all of his major-league managers -- including Tigers coaches Gene Lamont and Lloyd McClendon, and A's manager Ken Macha -- on the field for this series.

The top of the seventh was a strange inning. Thomas reaches on a single to right, but he ran so slowly that he was nearly thrown out by Cuddyer. Chavez then hits a double play grounder to Bartlett, who boots the ball. After a fly out, Santana issues his first walk of the game. Scutaro lines out to center (too shallow for Thomas to score) and Ellis flys out to left. Santana is at 91 pitches through seven innings.

This is interesting:

For the first time since 1991, neither World Series participant will be a top-10 payroll team.

The Astros had the game's 12th-highest Opening Day payroll, $76.8 million. The White Sox were 13th at $75.2 million.

Having young, lousy hitters representing half your lineup certainly helps.

Houston fans had a good time downtown last night.

When the final out was recorded, fans hugged each other in the street and revelers ran from bars shouting, leaping and cheering.

"I love it so much!" screamed a beaming Larry Benavidez.

Cars packed with screaming Astros fans clogged downtown streets soon after the game. Drivers inched forward and held their hands out their windows, high-fiving pedestrians milling in the streets. People stood up through the sunroofs and hung out the side windows of their vehicles, waving Astros banners, flags, towels and the occasional brassiere as others marched on the sidewalks chanting "Astros, Astros, Astros."

"It's our turn now," screamed Andy Martinez, 44. "I've waited 35 years to see this. It's a lifetime dream. Now I can take my son and grandson to a World Series game. I never thought I would be able to do that."

This World Series will be a lot like 2002, when a wild card that never played for a championship played an historic franchise that hadn't won the title in years. That turned out to be a very good series.

Roy Oswalt picks up the NLCS MVP award, beating the Cardinals twice in St. Louis. He posted a 1.29 ERA and allowed a .163 batting average. A very deserving choice.

The Houston Astros win their first National League Pennant. The out pitched, out hit and out defended the St. Louis Cardinals. Biggio and Bagwell get to finally make the trip to the World Series.

Oswalt rose to the challenge, allowing just three hits through seven innings while striking out six. The bullpen allowed just one hit while striking out three in two innings.

Veteran Brad Ausmus was the hitting star, going three for four and scoring a run. Brad hit .318 from the bottom of the order, continuing his hot hitting from the end of the season. With Everett hitting .304, the easy outs at the bottom of the Astros order proved to be a pain for the Cardinals.

Congratulations to the Astros on an excellent series. Since the wild card wins the series every year now, they become the odds on favorite to win the series! :-)

Isringhausen keeps the Astros off the board in the top of the ninth. It looks like Lidge will get a chance to redeem himself in the top of the ninth. The 4-5-6 hitters are up for St. Louis.

Update: It's Wheeler, not Lidge.

Update: Walker strikes out looking. Two outs to go.

Update: Mabry strikes out swinging. This is starting just like the ninth on Monday.

Update: Grudzielanek continues the deja vu, singling to right.

The Astros go 1-2-3 in the top of the 8th. The Cardinals need at least two runs here to get back in the game.

Update: Chad Qualls on to pitch.

Update: Eckstein grounds out to second. Five outs to go.

Update: Edmonds strikes out. Four outs to get four runs.

Update: Pujols lines out to short. The Astros are three outs away from the World Series, and the toughest part of the Cardinals order is out of the way.

Oswalt, with 105 pitches thrown, comes out for the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Everett makes a nice play on a Grudzielanek grounder up the middle for the first out of the inning. Eight to go.

Update: Molina grounds out to Biggio. Seven outs to go.

Update: Nunez singles up the middle.

Update: Taguchi gets his bat on the ball, but grounds out 3-1 to end the 7th. The Astros are six outs away from a trip north to Chicago.

La Russa goes to the bullpen again with Biggio at second after a sacrifice by Taveras. Flores relieves Marquis.

Update: Flores does his job and gets Berkman to fly out to Walker. The LOOGY leaves.

Update: It's a double switch as Tavarez and Taguchi enter the game.

Update: Ensberg trades places with Biggio as he singles to center and the ball skips by Edmonds. It's 5-1 Astros and things keep getting darker for the Cardinals.

Update: Another wild pitch! Ensberg moves to third. That's three wild pitches for the Red Birds tonight.

Update: Lane grounds out to end the inning. The Cardinals have nine outs left to spend, and they need to find away to buy four runs with them.

Larry Walker finally gets his first extra-base hit of the playoffs with a double off the right field wall near the corner. With two outs, Reggie Sanders is up. Oswalt is now over 100 pitches.

Update: The double is it as Sanders strikes out for the third time tonight. His 0 for 3 without getting the bat on the ball is a huge hole in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.

Jason Marquis takes the mound against Jason Lane in the top of the sixth. Lane grounds out to start the inning.

Update: Marquis is not doing much better than Mulder. After getting the first out, two hits put runners at first and third for Everett.

Update: Everett squeezes on a 3-1 pitch to get back the run the Cardinals scored in the bottom of the 5th. Busch Stadium moves a bit closer to destruction.

Update: Oswalt runs the count to 3-2 before striking out looking on a pitch at the knees. It's 4-1 Astros in the middle of the sixth.

Oswalt's hit the keystone combination, getting Grudzielanek on the hands, putting the leadoff batter on first. Roy's given up just 1 walk and 2 hit batters so far.

Update: Yadir Molina gets the first hit for St. Louis, dumping a single into short right field. Nunez is up with men on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Nunez grounds back to Oswalt, who can't pick up the ball cleanly. Oswalt throws wide of second, but the ump calls Molina out on a tag. The replay shows Everett missing the tag, but from the umpire's angle it looks like Everett got him. It's men on 1st and 3rd with one out. Rodriguez pinch hitting for Thompson.

Update: On a 3-2 pitch, Rodriguez hits a fly to center field to score Grudzielanek from third. It's 3-1 Astros.

Update: Eckstein strikes out to end the inning. The Cardinals make progress, but still need to score two runs with their 12 remaining outs.

Taveras singles, goes to second on a wild pitch then Berkman walks with two out in the fifth. That brings La Russa to the mound and a new pitcher out of the bullpen. For the third time in his career, Mulder won't get a win in an elimination game. Brad Thompson comes on in relief.

Update: Thompson gets Ensberg to pop out to end the inning. The Cardinals have 15 outs to get three runs.

Roy Oswalt's continues to be unhittable through four. He's struck out four, keeping his defense out of 1/3 of the outs made. His pitch count is at 56, not bad through four innings.

Jason Lane hits a shot into the left field stands to give the Astros a 3-0 lead. Every run puts another nail in the Cardinals coffin. Not suprisingly, the Cardinals bullpen is busy in the fourth.

Correction: Fixed a typo.

A two hit by pitch is the only damage against Roy Oswalt in the third. The plunk of David Eckstein is the closet thing to a hit the Cardinals have in the game so far.

Ausmus singles to left for the first hit of the game. Everett hits a slow roller between first and second. Pujols dives and misses, and Grudzielanek can't get the batter at first. The Astros have men on first and second with none out and Oswalt up.

Update: Oswalt sacrifices the runners over.

Update: Molina can't handle a wild pitch by Mulder and the Astros take a 1-0 lead.

Update: Biggio picks up the other runner with a single to left. The Astros go up 2-0.

Update: Taveras flies out for the 2nd out of the inning.

Update: David Eckstein makes a nice diving stop of a Berkman grounder to force Biggio at second and end the inning. The Cardinals find themselves in an early hole 2-0 in the middle of the third.

Mark Mulder gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the second, striking out Lane and Burke to end the inning. Just 20 pitches throught two for the left hander.

Update: Oswalt also gets the side 1-2-3 in the 2nd. The only difference between the two pitchers right now is the one walk issued by Roy. Each as allowed 0 hits while striking out 2.

David Eckstein leads off for the Cardinals and grounds out to his opposite number at shortstop.

Update: In an eerie reminder of game five, Edmonds walks to bring up Albert Pujols. The crowd goes wild.

Update: Pujols tries to check his swing on strike three, but his body has too much angular momentum and carries his bat through the strike zone.

Update: Walker grounds out to Ensberg to end the inning. Oswalt throws 15 pitchers, splitting them eight strikes and seven balls.

Biggio drag bunts the first pitch down the third base line, testing Nunez. Abraham makes a fine play, showing now signs of his injury. One out.

Update: Taveras grounds back to Mulder for the second out. A big difference between these two managers is that La Russa refuses to use an unproductive hitter in the two slot. He just starts the heart of his order a batter earlier.

Berkman grounds out to shortstop to end the inning. Mulder throws just six pitches, five for strikes.

The Cardinals face their second do or die game of the series, but this time they possess home field advantage. They send off-season acquisition and conspiracy theorist Mark Mulder against the lone gunman, Roy Oswalt.

Mulder twice pitched in elimination games, going 0-2 with a 3.18 ERA. He faced Roger Clemens on Oct 15, 2001 and neither pitched well. Both lasted just 4 1/3 innings, but two unearned runs hung the loss on Mark. On Oct. 6, 2002, Mulder got the call against the Twins and pitched great, striking out nine in seven innings, but Radke pitched better and a late comeback vs. Guardado wasn't enough. Mulder's only allowed 2 earned runs in two starts this post season, but an unearned run helped pin a loss on him in game 2 of this series. If he pitches that well again, the Cardinals have an excellent shot at a game 7.

Roy Oswalt allowed more earned runs hits post season (4), but he's allowed less hits than Mulder (11 to 16). He also out pitched Mark in game 2, allowing two fewer base runners. One problem for Oswalt in the playoffs is his control. In 2004, he walked eight batters in 19 1/3 innings. This year, he's walked five in 14 1/3. As we saw Monday night, a free pass to a Cardinal can set up a big inning.

Enjoy!

Wright Thompson tells the soap opera tale of Tony Peña's summer.

The events leading up to that plane ride weren’t pretty. In the last few weeks before he resigned as Royals manager, Peña had trouble sleeping. What’s worse, he could barely eat, and anyone who’s ever seen the man at a table should have known right away something was wrong.

Most days, he had only a banana. The pounds slipped off, almost 20 in all. Players might later privately complain that he quit on them, but no one could ever say he didn’t care.

“It was ugly for him,” general manager Allard Baird said.

A storm was brewing in Kansas City when Peña left for his final road trip with the team. He’d had conversations with Royals officials about a local divorce case he was being called to testify in — he had allegedly been having an affair with a neighbor.

He’d been asking around, trying to gauge how big a deal it would be in the community. On its own, he might have weathered it. Coupled with the losses, it was too much. American League Manager of the Year in 2003, Peña was now captain of a sinking ship.

I thought the resignation was a face saving gesture. Sometimes bosses let employees quit because it doesn't look as bad as getting fired. But Peña really took that road on his own. It appears Tony did the right thing for his family and himself. He turned off his cell phones and got to know his children. He relaxed. And now he's involved with baseball again, working for the Royals on special assignments, and enjoying the game once more.

Abraham Nunez is ready to start at third base tonight for the Cardinals:

"Much, much better," Nunez said. "Best it's felt. I did everything in fast motion, as fast as I could, just to see how it felt. I wanted to put it in every situation to make sure it would be ready. I think that it is."

Further down in the article is a very interesting fact:

Of seven previous times the Cardinals have fallen behind 3-2 in a best-of-seven series, they have won the series six times.

That is a stunning break from the rest of baseball - which, minus the Cardinals' seven times, is 20-54 in series when trailing three games to two. The most recent time the Cardinals won after trailing 3-2 was in last season's NLCS, against Houston.

If teams are evenly matched, you would expect a team to come back from 3-2 25% of the time. The Cardinals have certainly beat the odds in their history.

Of course, the Cards have also been on the other side of the fence. They were up 3-1 on Atlanta in 1996 and lost the series. They were up 3-2 on the Twins in 1987 and lost the series. Still, a 6-1 record when down 3-2 is most impressive.

Brian McTaggart points out that unlike last year, Houston's best will be on the mound for the two games in St. Louis.

John Lopez writes that the young Astros now know the frustration of the franchise:

When Roy Oswalt walked out of the dugout and onto the Minute Maid Park field before Game 5, the energy and buzz surrounding him was so thick, the question had to be asked.

Does he understand? He was asked if players, especially the younger ones, have talked about or grasped how long and frustrating a journey Astros fans have taken.

"Not really, no," he said. "I mean, we know this team has never been to the World Series. When you have so many young guys, you don't (think about it). I haven't heard anybody talk about it."

Today, Oswalt and all those younger players in the Astros' clubhouse have a much better understanding. The fact Oswalt is even having to pitch tonight in the National League Championship Series instead of Saturday in Chicago sends a resounding message.

The Houston Chronicle posts a number of excellent letters from Astros fans. Some can't watch anymore:

I didn't sleep much Monday night — lost in a flash of time that turned long-awaited ecstasy into swamping agony. Go Astros ... but forgive me if I can't bear to watch Game 6.

One was disappointed in the fans:

I am disappointed with the fans at Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. They all showed up with their "I BELIEVE" and 'I HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED" signs, and all was well as long as the Astros were winning. But when the team really needed the fans in the bottom of the ninth, these same people were not cheering on the Astros. They were dead silent.

But the most eloquent asks them to forget destiny:

It's time for these professional gentlemen of leisure to throw Destiny off a cliff. Give me Roy and Roger and the Killer B's and the points over destiny. The Astros are not "Destiny's team." Who needs Destiny? She's a poor, uncaring, witchy woman!

Bernie Miklasz notes how the Cardinal rally may allow Busch Stadium to go out in fitting style:

Pujols must have known it wasn't supposed to end this way, not for the 2005 Cardinals, not for old Busch, not for their fans.

The lights of Busch weren't supposed to be turned off so soon.

The wrecking ball wasn't supposed to strike so suddenly.

The first blow to demolish Busch wasn't supposed to be triggered in Houston, on an apparent game-winning three-run homer off by Lance Berkman off Chris Carpenter in the bottom of the seventh inning, giving the Astros a 4-2 lead.

Berkman's HR traveled only 338 feet, but when it drifted over boards in left, it must have seemed as if a missile had landed at 250 Stadium Plaza in downtown St. Louis.

It wasn't supposed to go down like this, with the Cardinals coughing on their opportunities, going two for 12 in Game 5, and five for 34 in the NLCS.

The Cardinals were supposed to bring the NLCS back home, and keep Busch and their season going. They'd surely close Busch in style, or with a fight, by coming back to win the series, or by mounting a resilient last stand to hold the Astros off for as long as possible.

They get at least one more game at the old ballpark, one more chance for the fans to say good bye.

Viva el Birdos showed great foresight last night:

jimmy walked, and the astros conferenced as albert's shadow darkened the mound. i looked up from the floor and dared to ask anthony and lisa, matter-of-factly: "how well do you guys know your neighbors?" "oh we know `em," lisa said, "they're cool." "so just in case something really exciting happens here and i start screaming like a madman, they're not going to call the cops or anything?" lisa: "no, they'll be fine. they've been hearing it all week from anthony because of the white sox."

excellent; licensed to shrill.

I must admit that I yelled when Pujols hit that ball. My wife and daughter came running to see what was the matter. It's not that I'm a particular fan of either team. It's just rare to see victory snatched from the jaws of defeat so dramatically. The 1986 Mets comeback in game six of the World Series was water torture. This was shock and awe. This was something to yell about.

David Eckstein continues to be one of my favorite players. To quote Lisa Gray, short guys rule! David went two for four tonight and reached on an error. His hit with two out in the ninth helped bring up the power for the Cardinals. Edmonds had a great at bat, letting Lidge issue the walk rather than going after something Jim shouldn't hit. And Pujols didn't just hit a home run, he crushed the ball.

Lidge was not unhittable. He had allowed a .267 BA coming into the game after allowing a .223 BA during the regular season. He gave up two more tonight, one of them is still on the way to that full moon.

The Cardinals are in the same position they were last year, heading back to St. Louis down 3-2. The difference is this year they'll have to face Oswalt and Clemens. Wednesday is going to be a lot of fun.

Tavares faces Isringhausen. He grounds to Pujols, way right of the bag. Pujols has to slide to get the out.

Update: Vizcaino pinch hits. The defensive changes for Houston leave Biggio on the bench.

Update: Vizcaino grounds out to Pujols. Burke is up. Can he hit another big home run?

Update: Burke flies out to right. Cardinals win!

Lidge is on to close the game for the Astros. He faces John Rodriguez.

Update: Rodriguez strikes out.

Update: Mabry strikes out. It's up to Eckstein!

Update: David does it. He singles through the hole to keep the Cardinals hopes alive. Jim Edmonds up.

Update: Eckstein moves up to second, removing the force.

Update: Edmonds gets out of the way of a pitch! He has to take one for the team there!

Update: Edmonds walks. Pujols is up!

Update: Pujols swings at the first pitch, strike one.

Update: Pujols homers! He saved the best for last! What a shot! It was up on the train tracks! The Cardinals lead 5-4 and are still alive in the post season!

Update: Reggie Sanders strikes out. Can Houston come back again? They did it against the Braves. Can history repeat?

It should be noted that the score difference in this series is five runs, as the Astros lead 17-12 as we head into the top of the ninth. The Cardinals have allowed 1 unearned run in each game. Without the miscues, this is likely an even series.

Jason Isringhausen is on to try to keep the lead at two.

Update: Lane flies out to center. One down.

Update: Ausmus grounds out to shortstop. Two down.

Update: Everett pops out to first to end the inning. The Astros need three more outs to win plane tickets to Chicago.

Gallo and Wheeler get the Cardinals in order in the 8th. St. Louis will have 8-9-1 in the ninth. They need to get someone on to reach Edmonds and Pujols.

On the night of a full moon, Hector Luna makes a one-out error to allow Craig Biggio to reach in the 7th.

Update: Molina makes a bad play, but lucky for him the ball was foul. Foul, no harm. :-)

Update: Burke comes through with a hit and run single. The Astros have the tying run on third with one out and Berkman up.

Update: Berkman hits the first pitch from Carpenter the other way into the left field seats for a 4-2 Astros lead. The Astros big gun comes through where Pujols couldn't.

Update: Carpenter was around 110 pitches on that home run. Did La Russa stay with his ace too long? He's still in facing Ensberg.

Update: Ensberg hits the wall in left but Sanders makes a great throw and nails Morgan at second. Carpenter, however, is getting hammered right now.

Update: Lamb flies out to center to end the inning. The Cardinals have six outs to get two runs against the Houston bullpen.

Carpenter may have kept Pettitte in the game as he retires the 6-7-8 hitters in order in the sixth. We'll know in a minute.

Update: Pettitte stays in, and a high throw by Everett allows Eckstein to reach base leading off an inning again.

Update: Eckstein gets caught stealing on a pickoff. There's only so many times you can steal successfully on Andy Pettitte.

Update: An Edmonds foul pop hits a beam, and it's a dead ball. On the next pitch, Jim beats out an infield grounder when Lamb's foot comes off the bag. Qualls comes in to relieve Pettitte.

Update: Pujols grounds out to third. If the Cardinals win this game, it won't be with much help from Albert.

Update: Sanders rolls out to third. A busy inning for Ensberg. Cardinals still lead 2-1 in the middle of the 7th.

Grudzeilanek singles leading off the 6th. The ball was down the left field line but bounced to Berkman who got Mark trying to stretch it into a double. Molina follows with a single as well. Pettitte is over 90 pitches and may be tiring.

Update: Pettitte gets out of the inning with no further damage. He's up to 96 pitches.

Carpenter makes a mistake and hits Lane leading off the fourth inning.

Update: Ausmus takes Lane's place on a grounder to third.

Update: Everett goes the other way, singling between first and second to put runners on 1st and 2nd for Pettitte.

Update: Pettitte sacrifices to put two runners in scoring position for Biggio. Craig is 2 for 2 tonight with Houston's only RBI.

Update: Biggio lines to Sanders to end the inning. I thought Sanders took a bad route, as the ball almost went over his head.

Carpenter gets the heart of the Houston order in order in the third. He's thrown 37 of 53 pitches for strikes so far.

David Eckstein fouls a ball off his foot, walks around in pain, then dumps a ball into centerfield for a single. He's reached base in both innings he's led off.

Update: After a steal, Edmonds singles Eck to third. Runners on base for Pujols once again.

Update: Pettitte gets ahead of Pujols 1-2. He then strikes him out on a pitch down and in. Pujols takes strike one this time, and it was the best pitch he saw.

Update: Molina strikes out to end the inning. The Cardinals lead 2-1.

Update: Grudz was due. :-) He drops one into short right to plate two runs and the Cardinals have life again. Pettitte gets the tough hitters but gives up the two out single.

Update: Pettitte strikes out Sanders after Reggie had a great at bat. He worked the count to 3-2, but Pettitte got the best of him. Andy's doing a great job so far of getting out of his jam.

Update: Walker draws a walk. Grudzielanek is up. Mark's BA, OBA and SPCT are all .125 in the series.

Jason Lane rolls a ball between thrid and short to lead off the bottom of the second with a single. Ausmus follows with a double down the third base line. Carpenter's in a tough jam.

Update: Everett strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. I suspect Pettitte will squeeze.

Update: Pettitte swinging away, has a 1-2 count. Does that take off the squeeze?

Update: Burke strikes out to end the inning. But the Cardinals are in a hole once more.

Update: Pettitte grounds to first, and Pujols makes a throw home to Molina's right. Molina keeps spinning in that direction and catches Lane before he crosses the plate for the out. A great tag.

Update: Biggio delivers the key single, knocking in Ausmus with a hit to left. The Astros take the early lead 1-0.

With Yadir having the only chance of representing the family in the World Series, he doubles to right center past the dive of Burke. He's on second with one out.

Update: Luna strikes out on a checked swing. It's up to Carpenter, and he grounds out to third to end the inning.

Craig Biggio gets on for Houston with an infield single up the middle. Grudzielanek did a good job getting to the ball, but he had no chance to throw out the second baseman.

Update: Burke bunts. It seems if you want your #2 hitter to bunt, you're better off with Taveras. Why waste Burke's power?

Update: Berkman walks on a 3-2 pitch. Men on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Great play by Luna to end the inning. He fields the ball and throws Lamb out from foul territory to end the inning. The Astros do work Carpenter, getting him to throw 20 pitches.
Update: Ensberg hits a nubber back to the pitcher for the 2nd out. Runners do advance, however, so I guess it was a productive out.

Pettitte hits Eckstein to start the ballgame.

Update: Edmonds walks. Good start for St. Louis, finally setting up Pujols in the first inning.

Update: Pujols pulls a Jim Rice. The pitcher is wild, and he swings at the first pitch. Where Rice would ground into a double play, Pujols pops it up.

Sanders swings at the first pitch and flys out! Pettitte was wild, and these hitters are letting him off the hook!

Update: Walker swings at the second pitch and rolls a slow one down the first base line. Ausmus throws him out easily. The Cardinals blew a great chance to score by being impatient at the plate.

Fox keeps running the Pepsi ad with A-Rod and Vlad. Given the way the two performed in the post season, I'm surprised they haven't replaced it with Oswalt and Buehrle.

The Astros try to extend their LCS home winning streak against the Cardinals to six tonight. This year, however, sweeping at home means a trip to the World Series.

The Astros send Andy Pettitte to the mound. Pettitte's pitched much better at the Juice Box, posting a 10-4 record and a 2.12 ERA. Pettitte had his bad post-season outing in game 1, so things are looking bright.

He will however, need to get past Chris Carpenter. Carpenter did not lose to the Astros this year, going 5-0 in six starts, including the playoffs.

You can't really blame the Cardinals starters in this series. They've allowed 7 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings for a 2.49 ERA. My feeling coming into the series that if the Cardinals starters were able to stay with the Houston starters, the St. Louis offense would win out. But Pujols and Nunez are the only two players to get on base consistently, and they're far apart in the lineup (especially if Nunez can't play). If the Cardinals can't put together three hits in a row tonight a few times tonight, they'll never see Busch Stadium again.

Enjoy!

What a poor offensive series by both teams. The Angels were amazingly bad, hitting just .175, drawing four walks in five games and slugging .266. A player would not last a week in the majors with those numbers. They did not set a record for post-season futility, however. The 1998 Texas Rangers hit just .141 in their ALDS series. The 1966 Dodgers managed a .142 batting average in the 1966 World Series. The record for LCS futility goes to the first ALCS loser, the 1969 Twins. They managed a mere .155 batting average against a great Orioles staff. (The 1969 Orioles would hit .146 against the Mets in the World Series, the third lowest batting average for any single post-season series.)

Chicago's .248 batting average seems low until you put it in historical perspective. From 1903 to 2004, there were 213 post season series. Eighty three saw winning teams with lower batting averages than Chicago's .248. The 1996 Atlanta Braves won the NLDS with a .180 BA, the lowest for a series winner. The lowest ALCS winner was the 1974 Oakland A's with a .183 BA. The World Series record belongs to the famous 1918 Red Sox, .186.

The average score of a game in this series was 4.6-2.2. Again, while 6.8 runs per game seems low, historically there are 70 series with a lower runs per game. In fact, the St. Louis-Houston series is currently at 6.5 runs per game. Of course, they don't have a DH.

Correction: Fixed a typo refering to the 1966 Dodgers in the 1966 World Series, not the 1996 Dodgers.

It must have been really difficult for Jackie Autry to present Konerko with the MVP. Paul really deserved it. Lots is made of 9th inning home runs, but first innings home runs that put your team up early are also extremely valuable. Nice to see that recognized.

Jose Contreras pitches the fourth complete game for the White Sox as Chicago wins game five 6-3. I'll have to check, but I believe Ozzie only used five pitchers and 10 position players. Who needs a bench!

The White Sox just dominated the series. The pitched better, they hit better, they fielded better and they got better calls from the umps. Podsednik got on base, Konerko hit for power, Pierzynski was the good luck charm, and the four starters were invincible. For the first time in my life time (I was born in 1960), the White Sox are going to the World Series. Congratulations to the team, and White Sox are going to see something they haven't seen in 46 years, a World Series game in Chicago.

Contreras is out for the ninth. Erstad is up.

Update: Uribe makes a great play to field the ball and throw out Erstad at first. Two outs to go.

Update: Rowand makes the catch for the second out.

Will you tell the folks back home I nearly made it
Had offers but don't know which one to take
Please don't tell them how you found me
Don't tell them how you found me give me a break
Give me a break
Seems it never rains in Southern California
Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California
But girl, don't they warn ya
It pours man it pours

Update: It's up to Kotchman.

Frankie Rodgriguez walks the first two men in the top of the ninth. This isn't the way to keep your team close when the season is on the line.

Update: Bud Black's visit to the mound doesn't do much good as Konerko hits one the other way, pounding the right field wall for a double, an RBI and a two run White Sox lead.

Update: Nice stop on a very high pitch by Molina. The Angels need to get Rodriguez out of there if they're going to have a shot in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: The Yankees must be watching this series thinking, "How could we lose to these guys?"

Update: Rodriguez lives up to his nickname by striking out Everett. Of course, Molina drops the strike and has to thrown Carl out at first.

Update: A sac fly scores Dye from third, but the Angels get Konerko trying to advance to third. Not only has Guerrero's offense been lousy, but he's had no accuracy to his throws. That's the second time I've seen a throw to the plate go up the line to let a run scored. The Angels are down three going to the bottom of the ninth.

Jose comes out for the 8th inning and gets Cabrera to ground out to short for the first out.

Update: Anderson flies out to center. If Guerrero is going to get a big hit, now's the time.

Update: Guerrero weakly grounds out to second to end the inning on the first pitch. Contreras is barely over 100 pitches. Another complete game may be on the way.

Escobar isn't letting his defense help him at all in this relief appearence. He's allowed a home run and two walks while striking out five. If he doesn't get Pierzynski here, he'll have to face Crede again.

Update: Escobar tries do to all the work himself again. Pierzynski grounds to Escobar, but Escobar tags him with the glove, but the ball's in his bare hand. The first base ump doesn't see it, and calls Pierzynski out. Guillen comes out and argues, the umpires confer and get the call right. Pierzynski gets first base on an error.

That's it for Escobar.

Update: K-Rod is on to face Crede with men on first and second with two out.

Update: Impressive running by Rowand. Going on a 3-2 pitch, he scores on an infield hit by Crede. Crede grounded it up the middle, Kennedy dove to stop it, but couldn't make a strong throw to the plate. The White Sox are now six outs away from a trip to the World Series.

Update: It pours, man it pours. Rodriguez walks Uribe to load the bases.

Update: K-Rod gets Podsednik to strike out. The Angels are lucky to be down by just one run after that inning.

Contreras gets the Angels 1-2-3 in the 7th. He's still under 100 pitches, so there's no reason to pull him yet. I also find it funny that Hernandez was warming in the bullpen. Bringing in Orlando isn't really like going to the bullpen since he spent most of the year as a starter.

Kelvim Escobar enters the game in the 7th to face game 2 nemisis Joe Crede, and Joe hits it hard down the line again. This time, it carries farther, over the fence to tie the game at 3. Escobar is probably being underloved by the crowd right now.

Update: Kelvim strikes out the side. The walk and stolen base by Podsednik are for naught. The Angels need another run however, to send the series back to Chicago.

Jose Contreras has an easy sixth inning, retiring the side in order. He's up to 84 pitches, however, so we have a good chance of seeing the White Sox bullpen in this one.

Houston won a close one this afternoon 2-1, taking a 3-1 lead in the series against the Cardinals. The big story appears to be the ejection of La Russa and Edmonds. The commenters said Edmonds really got in the face of the ump. I didn't notice anything horribly wrong with ball/strike calls early in the game. What did people think of Cuzzi's calls in that game. Did La Russa and Edmonds have a gripe, or were they just frustrated by the Cardinals inability to score?

I get home just in time to see some more controversy. Figgins pulls a ball hard down the line, and a stupid fan reaches over and pulls the ball into the stands. The umpires, after an argument from Scioscia, let the runner at first score. Kennedy was running on the play, and would score easily if the play is allowed to continue. Good call for the Angels for a change. It's 2-2 in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: With Figgins on third after a ground out, Anderson (batting 3rd tonight) hits a long fly to right to score Chone and give the Angels a 3-2 lead. A nice comeback after falling behind in the top of the inning.

My family and I are going out for the evening. You're welcome to leave comments and post updates in the comments section.

My family and I are going out for the evening. You're invited to comment on the game and post updates in the comments here.

David Eckstein draws his 2nd walk of the game, and this time Edmonds doubles. Pujols has two runners on base this time.

Update: Pujols gives the Cardinals a 1-0 lead with a sacrifice fly to right. It seems the Cardinals are scoring a lot of runs on sac flies this series.

Update: That's their third of the series. So 30% of their runs score on sac flies. Larry Walker draws a base on balls to put runners on first and second for Sanders.

Update: Sanders strikes out in a very long at bat. It's up to Mabry to put more runs on the board.

Update: Mabry flies out to end the inning. Backe gets out of a tough spot without much damage.

Jeff Suppan walks Burke and Berkman with two outs in the third. The Astros have their second opportunity with runners in scoring position.

Update: Ensberg grounds into a fielder's choice to end the inning. Suppan continues his good luck with runners in scoring position.

Backe continues to frustrate the Cardinals, retiring the side in order in the third. His walk to Eckstein is the only blemish on his day so far.

Backe is looking good through two innings. He strikes out two in the inning, bringing his total to three for the game.

There are two Astros fans sitting behind home plate in Saturday Night Live bee costumes. I assume it's not Belushi and Radner.

The funniest bee sketch, of course, was from the second episode of SNL (when it was just called Saturday Night). Rob Reiner was hosting, and he was having dinner with then wife Penny Marshall in a resturant in which all the serving staff are bees. They're having some silly discussion when Rob, tired of the whole thing, says, "I feel like I'm in a B-Movie!"

Biggio grounds hard to John Mabry to start the Astros' first. Mabry handles it well, throwing Biggio out at first.

Update: Burke lines out to center for the second out. Expect thos sort of thing all game as both pitchers depend on their defense.

Update: Berkman hits an easy roller to second for the third out. No hits through one inning in the game.

Backe gets ahead of Eckstein 0-2, then loses him on four straight balls. Eck on first for Edmonds with the walk.

Update: Edmonds grounds into a double play. Once again, Pujols comes up with the bases empty.

Update: After missing the foul pole by a few feet, Pujols tries to check his swing and strikes out. A good start for Backe.

Reggie Sanders is back in the St. Louis lineup this afternoon, batting in his usual 5th spot. Mabry is starting at third for Nunez and batting 6th. Grudzielanek is dropped to the eighth slot.

Burke starts in center again for the Astros. I don't really see this as being a positive for Houston. Unless you believe in the hot hand, Taveras is a better hitter and a better fielder.

The Cardinals offense gets a chance to face a non-ace today as Brandon Backe host Jeff Suppan in game 4 of the NLCS. Backe is the type of high ERA pitcher the Cardinals offense thrived on in the NLDS. He's not overpowering, he doesn't have great control, and you can get a few extra-base hits off him. However, the Astros aces have been less than stellar in this series and the Cardinals haven't hit them well. Backe is facing an offense in disarry. He playing at home where he's been stellar this season. It's a day for Brandon to shine.

Jeff Suppan makes his first appearance of the post season. He's pitching on 20 days rest, which makes me wonder what's the longest rest a starter's ever had in the playoffs. Jeff's overall stats are very similar to Backe's. The big difference between the two pitches is that Suppan allowed a .230 batting average with runners in scoring position and Backe allowed a .270 average in that situation. Add to that the majority of Suppan's home runs were solo shots and you have the 1 run difference in ERAs.

The White Sox go for the pennant tonight in a rematch of game 1. Jose Contreras takes the mound against Paul Byrd. Contreras must be suffering a lot of teasing at the hands of his teammates as he's the only starter not to pitch a complete game. Contreras continued his great control of late. He hasn't walked a batter in three starts. Given the Angels ability to take pitches in this series, it's a good bet that streak will continue.

Byrd used his defense to keep the White Sox in check in game 1. He faced 24 batters, and 21 put the ball in play, resulting in just five hits. Byrd was especially good at home this year, as opponents posted a mere .281 OBA against him in Anaheim vs. .320 on the road.

Enjoy!

The White Sox are not concerned about the lack of bullpen use in this series:

Turning too much strength into a psychological issue, Cooper has played mental games with his relievers. He has told them that no one will accept too much rest as an excuse and that whether they haven't pitched "in two minutes or two weeks, people will only ask, 'Do you or don't you get it done?'''

The great thing about getting complete games out of his pitchers is that Guillen isn't blowing them out to do it. Garcia threw 116 pitches, Garland 118 and Buehrle just 99. Whenever you go to your bullpen, you're trading a known for an unknown. Guillen is showing he knows his pitcher's limitations, and he's not afraid to go with his knowns late in a game.

I'm hoping Guillen's success will start to make managers question their automatic moves to setup men in the seventh and eighth inning. I also hope it will start to make them think about downsizing the pitching staff to 10 from the 11 and 12 we've seen recently. I'd like to see less role playing and better pitching.

It's too bad that McKeon is retiring, since he shared this "be efficient and finish" philosophy. It looks like it will live on Jack's former coach.

The OC Register is running a blog during the games, although I saw only one update during last night's contest. Mark Saxon noted the boos the Angels were receiving from the fans, but also this note:

By the way, when Mark Buehrle is pitching to Pierzynski, it's a spellcheck nightmare.

I actually have those two down, but after all these years I still can't spell Grudzielanek without help. :-)

Update: And don't forget the confusing Tavarez/Taveras matchup!

John Lopez looks at Garner's lineup decisions yesterday. Garner makes an interesting observation about how some manage:

"I think there are people who maybe don't (make unorthodox decisions) because they don't like to take the heat," Garner said before Game 1 of the NLCS. "I don't like it, but I don't like the other side, either. I don't like if there was something I could have done to help us win the ballgame and didn't."

When Tom Glavine was at the top of his game in the 1990's, he would pitch much better against righties than lefties. Yet, managers would start 80% right-handers against Tom. I spoke to Ray Knight about this once. As to why Glavine was better against righties, Ray explained the movement of Tom's pitch was away from righties but into a lefty's hitting zone. He talked about left-handed pitchers who he couldn't hit for the same reason. I then asked him, given that, why managers didn't start left-handed batters against Glavine. Ray said that the managers didn't want to take the heat from the press if they lost using that strategy.

A couple of years later, Greg Olson, Glavine's former catcher, auditioned for Baseball Tonight. I asked him the same questions I asked Ray, and got nearly identical answers. It's quite possible that Tom owes his successful career to media pressure on managers.

Kotchman grounds to Iguchi to give Freddy Garcia the complete game victory and the White Sox a 3-1 lead in the best of seven series. Chicago is just shutting down the Angels offense and getting plenty of their own. They're showing why they're the best road team in the AL.

Everything clicked for Chicago tonight. The pitching was great, the defense very good and the hitting excellent. They put 15 men on via a hit, walk or hit by pitch. The team hit for the cycle with a double, triple and two home runs. The White Sox are one win away from their first World Series since 1959.

Garcia is on to start the ninth and gets a grounder to short for the first out of the inning.

Update: Anderson strikes out. It's up to Darin Erstad to keep the game alive.

Update: Erstad singles past Konerko to extend the inning. Guillen comes out to the mound but leaves Garcia in the game.

Update: DaVanon runs for Erstad.

A good night for Podsednik as he triples in the 9th. He's 1 for 2 with three walks.

Update: Yan leaves Podsednik at third as he gets a strikeout and two flys to Guerrero to end the inning. The Angels need six runs and they only have three outs left.

Finley singles, then is safe on second as the umpire doesn't call the neighborhood play as Iguchi tries to turn the double play. Iguchi was clearly off the bag. I've seen players called out when the second baseman is standing over, but not touching the bag. Iguchi was behind the bag, nowhere near it. Good call.

Update: Garica gets out of the inning without allowing a run. Freddy's thrown 104 pitches and isn't scheduled to start again in this series. Will Guillen let him finish the game?

Esteban Yan is in to pitch the 8th for the Angels.

Update: Yan walks Everett.

Update: Rowand doubles. The White Sox have runners at 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Right now, it looks like Yan can't.

Update: A.J. strikes out. Yan could there.

Update: He can't against Crede. Joe grounds one down the line past Figgins at third to make the score 8-2. A double play ends the inning, but the Angels now have six outs to score six runs.

Another easy inning for Garcia in the 7th. He's at 90 pitches through seven.

Donnelly is on in relief of Shields.

Update: He walks Podsednik. Scott's walked more in this game (3) than the Angels have in the series (2).

Update: With one out, Podsednik steals second, although it looks like the umps missed another call.

Update: The bad call doesn't hurt as Donnelly gets out of the inning.

Cabrera hits the ball as hard as he can, and he lines it right to Crede.

Guerrero grounds it into the hole, and Crede makes a nice diving play to get Vlad at first.

Update: Anderson strikes out and is thrown out at first when the ball's in the dirt. Garcia keeps his pitch count low.

Garcia is at 66 pitches (13 per inning) through five innings. At that rate, Guillen won't need to go to the pen tonight, either.

I love this. I hope starters all over are watching this. Be efficient and you'll finish what you start.

Ervin Santana is done. He walks Podsednik and Iguchi hits a long fly ball to center for an out. Santana threw 88 pitches through 4 1/3 innings, walking three and only striking out two. Scott Shields takes the mound.

Update: Podsednik steals second after the first base ump misses a successful pickoff. That's three call in the White Sox favor this series.

Update: Podsednik scores on an Everett single. The missed pickoff hurts the Angels. It's 6-1 in the middle of the fifth.

Kotchman drives a double to the gap in left center to score Anderson from first. Molina then grounds out to end the inning. It's 5-2 White Sox after four.

Vlad Guerrero grounds out to shortstop again. It seems to me he's chopping high pitches rather than upper cutting low pitches.

A.J. Pierzynski blasts a ball well over the centerfield fence to extend the White Sox lead to 5-1. It appears that Santana's magic is gone.

Carl Everett drives in Dye as the White Sox take advantage of a bad throw to first. Everett is thrown out trying to advance to second on the throw, ending the top of the third with the White Sox leading 4-1.

Interesting replay. Pierszynski's glove got in the way of Finley's swing, which should be catcher's interference. As Finley was running to first, he was pointing that out to the ump, which is why he was doubled up. The Angels are hurt by another bad call.

Interstingly, Eddings missed a catcher interference call against the Angels early in the season. The catcher's glove was knocked down the third base line, but Eddings didn't call it.

With one out Erstad draws the second Angels walk of the series.

Update: A fielding miscue by Freddy Garcia. Kotchman hit a nubber between third and the mound. Garcia threw it over the head of the first baseman to put runners on second and third in the second with one out.

Update: Bengie Molina drives the ball to center for a single and drives in one. Once again, the Angels take advantage of a bad defensive play. First and third for Finley.

Update: Iguchi starts a 4-6-3 double play on a grounder by Finley. It's 3-1 White Sox after two.

Santana walks one, but that's the only runner for the White Sox in the second. Ervin's already thrown over 50 pitches in his two innings of work.

Garcia starts Figgins off with a swinging strikeout, then gets Cabrera to ground out to third on the first pitch. No one on for Guerrero.

Update: Guerrero hits the secnd pitch for a grounder to shortstop. I almost think Scioscia should tell his team not to swing until they have two strikes, just to make Garcia work a little bit. Garcia has a seven pitch first, tossing just one ball.

Scott Podsednik draws a walk to start the game. Santana threw the last two balls by Molina.

Update: Santana is just wild. His pitchout was off, and he then hits Iguchi. The White Sox have ducks on the pond for Dye.

Update: Dye drives the ball deep to center. Both runners move up on the fly ball.

Update: Paul Konerko does it again. He takes a 3-2 pitch over the fence in left center, just a little short of where he hit it yesterday. The White Sox are off to a 3-0 lead.

The White Sox bunch their good hitters together at the top of the lineup, and it's paid off in the first inning for them all year, and especially the last two nights.

Update: Santana gets Everett and Rowand, but the damage is done. The Angels find themselves in an early 3-0 hole.

The Houston Astros take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS. Roger Clemens was not over powering today as he allowed six hits and two walks through six innings. The Cardinals could not take advantage of a less than perfect Rocket, however. The Astros kept the 1-2 hitters off base as they went 0 for 8. The broadcast noted that Pujols has now led off five times in this series. The Cardinals need to get runners on for Albert.

The Astros had a little Lamb today, as Mike had a double and homer to score and drive in two. He's hitting .375 for the series.

Not only does Lidge come in, but the Astros go with a better defensive team as well.

Update: Grudzielanek strikes out to start the 9th. The Astros relievers have faced seven batters and struck out four of them.

Update: Molina pops out foul to Berkman at first base.

Update: John Rodriguez is pinch hitting and gets ahead of Lidge 3-0.

Update: Rodriguez walks on four pitches, quieting the crowd. Mabry hits for Luna.

Update: Mabry takes three balls after falling behind 0-2. He takes the three-two pitch down the line in left for an RBI double (Rodriguez had taken second uncontested). It's up to Eckstein.

Update: Eckstein gets the bat on the ball but flys to Taveras in short centerfield. Lidge made it exciting, but gets the save.

Julian Tavarez comes on in relief of Flores.

Update: Barbara Bush is scoring the game! Tavarez gives up a double, but that's it. Houston sends the 6-7-8 hitters against Lidge in the ninth.

Qualls gets Pujols, Edmonds and Walker (on a nice play by Everett) for an easy eighth inning. Three more outs and the Astros take a 2-1 series lead.

Burke leads off the Astros seventh with a single. That chases Thompson.

Update: Randy Flores comes on to relieve.

Update: Flores gets Berkman but walks Ensberg. Runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out for Lamb.

Update: Lamb lines into a double play to end the inning. The Cardinals have six outs to score two runs.

Qualls enter in relief of Clemens, and strikes out Luna to start the 7th.

Update: Qualls gets the side in order, striking out Taguchi to end the inning. Once again, Pujols will lead off an inning. Seems like he's always up with the bases empty.

Mike Lamb doubles onto the berm in centerfield with one out. The Astros have the go-ahead run n scoring position, a tough situatuion for them this post season.

Update: Maybe they're the killer L's. Lane singles to right center to drive in Lamb and give the Astros a 3-2 lead.

Update: Ausmus singles to right. Lane goes for third, and Walker makes a strong throw to try to nail Jason. Nunez comes off the bag to take the throw and collides with Lane. Nunez is on the ground hurt.

Update: It looks like Lane got Nunez on the glove hand and the leg. Nunez had to be helped off the field with a man supportng him on each side. He was visably limping. The Cardinals are now down two starters in this series.

Update: La Russa makes a double switch as Luna plays third and Thompson comes on to pitch.

Update: The injury costs the Cardinals a run. On a bouncer to Luna, Hector throws the ball home, but air mails it to the backstop. The Cardinals do get an out as Ausmus is thrown out trying to go to third on the play.

I though Luna had a shot at a 5-4-3 double play.

Clemens is out, Palmeiro is pinch hitting. The score is 4-2 Astros.

Update: The hits keep coming. Palmeiro bloops one to short center to put men on 1st and 2nd with two outs.

Update: Luna makes a diving stop on Biggio and throws Craig out to end the inning. Hector saves a run there. He'll lead off the 7th.

Pujols starts the inning off with a single.

Update: Edmonds singles to center and Pujols aggressively makes third basel. A good throw would have had him.

Update: Pujols' base running pays off as Walker hits a fly ball to deep center. The Cardinals second run scores on their second sac fly. It's 2-2 in the 6th.

Update: Grudzielanek flies to short center for the second out.

Update: Molina singles to center to put runners on 1st and 3rd with two out for Nunez.

Update: Clemens has only one strikeout so far. The balls in play are starting to cost him.

Update: Nunez rolls a ball down the line that Ausmus fields for the third out. Clemens is close to 100 pitches through six innings. Morris is at 73 through five.

Biggio hits a liner up the middle that just misses Morris' head. Craig on at first with one out.

Update: Biggio's hit is it. Pujols leads off the top of the sixth.

Molina leads off the fifth with a hit.

Update: Lamb dives for a Nunez grounder. The ball goes off Lamb's glove and both runners are safe.

Update: Morris bunts the runners into scoring position for David Eckstein. Eck hit .373 with runners in scoring position this year.

Update: Fly Ball A for Eckstein as he advances both runners with a sac fly to right. It's 2-1 Astros, Taguchi up.

Update: Taguchi gives the ball a ride to right, but Lane catches it at the wall. Clemens looks like he's having problems on the mound. He'll have to face the heart of the Cardinals order in the sixth.

Ensberg walks leading off the fourth, then Lamb drives a ball over the left field wall for a 2-0 Astros lead.

Update: No more damage against Morris. The Cardinals are coming up in the top of th fifth trailing 2-0. We'll see if Clemens gets his control back.

Albert Pujols hits the ball 403 feet. Unfortunately, the wall is 404 feet in left center, and Burke goes back to make the catch.

Update: Edmonds walks and steals against Clemens with two out.

Update: Larry Walker can't swing the bat, and Roger falls behind Walker 3-0.

Update: Walker draws the base on balls on four pitches. Is the hamstring bothering Roger?

Update: Grudzielanek runs the count to 3-2, then grounds out to second to end the inning. The Cardinals did work him for 28 pitches in the inning, running his total to 64 through four.

Roger Clemens gets a one-out single in the bottom of the third. Roger had a higher batting average than his opponents this year, and he has as many hits as the Cardinals today.

Biggio follows with a single to right. The Astros have runners on 1st and 2nd with one out for Burke.

Update: Burke knocks Matt Morris' glove off with a liner, but Grudzielanek picks up the ball and gets the force at second.

Update: Molina tries to pick off Burke. The ump called him safe, but the ump blew the call. He's pretty clearly out on the replay.

Update: Morris strikes out Berkman looking on a 3-2 count. Lance tried to sell a ball to the ump to starting to first, but the pitch wasn't close to being a ball.

Once again, the Cardinals starters are hanging with the superior Houston pitchers. At some point, you have to expect the better St. Louis offense to emerge.

Abraham Nunez made Clemens work, but Rogers still retires the side in order. He's going after batters, as 26 of his 36 pitches have gone for strikes.

Matt Morris retires the side in the second with a fly, grounder and strike out. Both hurlers have pitch counts in the low 20s through two.

Walker grounds out to the first baseman, but Clemens fails to cover. Lamb beats Walker to the bag, if Larry were healthy, I think he would have beat it out.

Clemens gets two more ground outs to end the inning. Lots of ground balls so far today.

Biggio works the count to 3-1, then grounds out to third to start the Astros' first.

Update: Two batters, two ground outs as Burke hits to the short stop.

Berkman follows with a first pitch single. Bottom of the first like the top of the first with a two-out single.

Update: Ensberg hits a slow roller to third, but Nunez throws him out. Three ground ball outs for Morris in the first.

David Eckstein pops out to short left to start the game.

Update: Taguchi makes Clemens work a bit, but ends up striking out.

Update: Pujols takes a 2-2 pitch up the middle for the first hit of the game.

Update: Edmonds grounds out to second on the first pitch. All year long, Clemens has not gone deep in games. The Cardianls shouldn't swing at the first pitch unless it's really phat.

Fox is scrolling the starting lineups for the Cardinals-Astros game, and Reggie Sanders is out. So Taguchi is batting second, and Edmonds is moved down to fourth, and everyone else moves down one space in the order.

Chris Burke is starting instead of Taveras for the Astros.

Update: Molina and Nunez are flipped in the Cardinals as well.

It's a late afternoon start in Houston as the Astros and Roger Clemens host the Cardinals and Matt Morris. Clemens made four starts against the Cardinals this season, and Houston lost three of them. Only one was a truly outstanding start, his seven shutout innings in the game Mulder won in 10. Roger did not strike out many Cardinals this season, amassing just 13 K in 24 innings, 4.9 per 9. No Cardinal took him deep this year, however.

Matt Morris is a pitcher the Astros should be able to hit. His strike outs are way down from his stellar 2002 season. The Astros can put the ball in play against Matt, and hope that good things happen like they did on Thursday. Matt also has a tendency to give up home runs, although he cut down compared to last year.

It looks like Reggie Sanders is going to play tonight.

In Anaheim, the Angels will try to find a way to score run against Freddy Garcia. The new father will face Ervin "Magic" Santana. Garcia walked four in his five innings against the Red Sox in game 3 at Fenway. The Angels might want to take a look at Boston's approach, since they've only drawn one walk in the series. Get ahead, and get the opposition on the defensive seems to be the motto of the White Sox pitchers. The Angels hitters are all to eager to help.

Including the post season, Santana is on a five game winning streak. He does need help from his teammates, however, as his 3.66 ERA during that time isn't exactly low. He's allowed just 2 home runs in the streak while striking out 25.

Enjoy!

The White Sox don't score in the top of the 9th. They need three outs to take a 2-1 lead and regain home field advantage.

Update: Garland is in to start the ninth.

Update: Podsednik races in to catch a short fly to left by Figgins. One out.

Update: Cabrera flies out to deep center for the second out.

Update: Guerrero swings at the first pitch and lines out to right. Garland faces three over the minimum as we see the first back-to-back complete games in the playoffs since 1997.

Who needs a bullpen! I love to see starters finish what they start. The relievers threw just 2/3 of an inning in this series. The Angels help a lot, swinging early, and the Sox pitchers are getting the first pitch over.

The top four hitters got in gear tonight, going 8 for 15 with five runs scored and four RBI. It's an all-around win for the White Sox, and they lead the series 2-1.

Another 1-2-3 inning for Garland. He's faced just 27 batters through eight innings.

Dye walks and Konerko follows with a single to right to put runners on first and third with no outs. Donnelly is coming in to try to put out the fire in the eighth. The White Sox 1-4 hitters are now 7 for 13 with two walks.

Update: Donnelly strikes out Everett.

Update: Rowand grounds into a double play to end the inning. The Angels have two innings to score three runs.

Lou Piniella just chided the Angels for only drawing one walk in this series. Good for Piniella. It's not even that they're not drawing walks, they're swinging early, not even letting the pitcher get himself in trouble. Garland tonight is through seven, and he's only thrown 91 pitches. That's just 13 an inning.

Kevin Gregg strikes out the side in the seventh. Still 5-2 White Sox.

Orlando Cabrera drives in Adam Kennedy with a two-out home run down the line in left. He hit eight during the regular season. That makes the score 5-2 in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Garland comes back to strike out Guerrero to end the inning. That's six K through six innings.

Kevin Gregg replaces Lackey to start the sixth inning. He strikes out a good number of batters, 52 in 64 1/3 innings, but allowed a 5.04 ERA. It seems when the batters put the ball in play vs. Gregg it tends to fall for a hit.

Update: Gregg has an easy inning, getting the side 1-2-3 without a strikeout.

All the rest given Jon Garland by the sweep of the Red Sox sure seems to be helping him tonight. He retires the side in order in the fifth. He's faced just 16 batters, striking out five. He thrown just 60 pitches, 41 for strikes and is simply dominating the Angels.

Paul Konerko singles to center to drive in Iguchi. Tadahito doubled earlier to run his game to 2 for 2 with a sacrifice.

The White Sox 1-4 hitters are six for 10 with a walk and a sacrifice. Half of those hits were for extra-bases. They've scored all five runs and driving in four.

The White Sox, unlike the Angels, bunch their good hitters together. Tonight you're seeing the fruit of that strategy. It's 5-0 Chicago in the middle of the fifth. Lackey is up to 83 pitches.

Guerrero hits Garland in the foot with a comebacker to the mound. Vlad is on first with a two out single. It's Garland's right foot, the one he uses to push. Anderson grounds out to end the inning.

Garland's being efficient, throwing just 49 pitches through 4 innings. At this rate, the White Sox may set a record for fewest relief innings in an LCS. :-)

Lackey has an easy inning for a change, getting the White Sox in order in the top of the fourth. He throws just seven pitches, and his total is 69 through four.

Steve Finley just grounded out after breaking his bat. For the second time in this series, I heard a bat break and it sounded like metal, like an aluminum bat. Any audio experts know what I'm hearing? Is the bat hitting part of the catcher's gear?

Iguchi singles and Dye walks to start the third inning for the White Sox Konerko is up again with more men on base. Lackey hasn't gotten an out in the third, and he's over 50 pitches.

Update: This time Lackey wins the battle, getting Konerko to strike out swinging. However, Everett bloops a single into left down the line, driving in Iguchi for a 4-0 Chicago lead.

Update: Rowand lines into a double play. Lackey's at 62 pitches through three innings.

With two out in the bottom of the second, Darin Erstad doubles into the right field corner. The problem was, Darin thought he tripled. There was a good relay to Iguchi, and a great thrown by Iguchi to nail Erstad at third.

When the broadcast showed him going around second, I thought, "He's running too slow. He's not going to make it." Whatever speed Darin had, it was gone by the time he reached second base.

The bottom of the White Sox order only got one hit, but they made Lackey throw over 20 pitches in that inning, bringing his game total up to 39 for two innings. Twenty eight of those are strikes (including the hanging breaking balls).

Chone Figgins starts the Angels with a walk. Garland doesn't walk many, and the Angels don't walk much, so that was an unusual way to start the inning.

Update: That was the first walk of the series for the Angels. Garland comes back and strikes out Cabrera on an 0-2 count.

Update: Vlad hits a slow chopper up the middle. Icughi gets it on the shortstop side of second, steps on the bag for the force, and fires to first to complete the double play. The walk is for naught. White Sox lead 3-0 at the end of one.

Lackey gets ahead of Podsednik 0-2, but then gives up a single to right.

Update: Iguchi uses up the first out of the game, bunting Podsednik to second.

Update: Jermaine Dye doubles into right center, and the White Sox take a quick 1-0 lead.

Update: Everything's hanging for Lackey in the first inning. He does it on a 3-2 pitch to Konerko and Paul blasts it out of the park, over the 387 mark. It's 3-0 White Sox.

Update: Lakey gets two more outs to end the inning. The White Sox score three in the inning after scoring four in the previous 18.

It looks like Doug Eddings has two security guards on the field near his position in foul territory. Little does he know they're Angels fans. :-)

Remember to watch The Dugout for Astros commentary. Lisa Gray usually has tickets for the big games, so watch for her take from within the Juice Box.

The ALCS moves to sunny California as the White Sox face the Angels in game 3. Jon Garland gets his first start of the post season, facing the Angels' John Lackey. At age 25, Garland pitched a career year, going 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA, a run below his career average. The big step forward for Jon was in the walks department. Through 2004, Garland averaged 3.7 walks per 9 innings. In 2005 he cut that down to 1.9. He doesn't strike out many, just 4.7 per 9 in 2005, so it's a good matchup for the Angels. Both like to put the ball in play.

John Lackey is the ace of the staff with Bartolo Colon on the sidelines for the series. Despite giving up just 3 runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Yankees, Lackey didn't pitch all that well. He walked 9 and struck out 9 in two games, hardly a dominating performance. He's well rested for this game, however. During the season he had good luck with the White Sox. In three starts he posted a 2.57 ERA and a 2-0 record. He only struck out 11 in 21 innings, but he kept the ball in the park, allowing just one home run.

And of course, you want to tune in just to see how the crowd reacts to Doug Eddings.

Enjoy!

Mark Mulder sums up why it's tough to win in October:

"This is playoff baseball," Mulder said. "There's a reason why I'm 3-3 in my career in the playoffs. Runs are at a minimum. You've really got to pitch well, and that's how it goes sometimes. There's not going to be a lot of runs scoring in the playoffs."

Teams usually have to be great at one part of the game to make it to the playoffs. All four of the remaining teams have great pitching. Runs should be scarce the rest of the way. That's why a poor defensive game like the one the Cardinals played last night is so damaging.

A good pitching duel between the starters. Both struck out six. Mulder gave up three more hits, but two of those came on poor defensive plays with Taveras batting. Defense hurt the Cardinals tonight. Grudzielanek, Edmonds, Eckstein and Sanders all made poor plays. When you're going up against Oswalt, you can't afford to be giving up base runners.

On to Houston for game three on Saturday.

Marquis gets the side in the top of the ninth. The 6-7-8 hitters are up for St. Louis in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: Grudzielanek pops out to left.

Update: Nunez gets the first hit off Lidge, a one-out single.

Update: Nunez moves up to second.

Update: Molina strikes out. Mabry pinch hits.

Update: Mabry grounds out to end the game.

Lidge is in and gets Pujols to fly out and Walker to strike out to start the inning.

Update: It's 1-2-3 in the 8th for Lidge as he strikes out Taguchi as well. The Astros are three outs away from earning home field advantage.

Julian Tavarez takes over for Mulder.

Update: Berkman takes Tavarez down the right field line for a lead off double.

Update: Ensberg grounds to short, leaving Lance at second.

Update: Lane does the same thing.

Update: Tavarez throws the ball past Molina, and Berkman goes to third.

Update: Burke ends the RISP slump with a single to drive in Berkman. The insurance run puts the Astros up 3-1.

Update: I don't know what happened to Sanders on that play. Everett hits a long drive to the track in left. Sanders leaped, and the ball went off his glove. Sanders then flailed in the air and came down on his behind and head. It looked very strange.

It's 4-1 with Everett on third, and Sanders is out of the game for Taguchi.

Update: Ausmus lines out to end the inning. Tavarez plays the arsonist well.

With one out in the 7th, Molina gets his second ground rule double of the game. He hits it over Burke's head, and it bounces into the bullpen. John Rodriguez is pinch-hitting for Mulder.

Update: Rodriguez walks. Oswalt may be getting tired as he's near 100 pitches, but Qualls just started warming in the pen. Hickey goes out to the mound to stall for time.

Update: Eckstein flies out, leaving runners at 1st and 2nd. Jim Edmonds is up. It looks like Oswalt is staying in the game.

Update: Edmonds grounds out to first on the first pitch. Oswalt bends but doesn't break.

I just realized I should be rooting for a Cardinals-Angels series, so I can see Oswalt hit Kennedy in the head. :-)

With two outs, Roy Oswalt singles. He's reached twice tonight, once on a walk. Roy's not that good a hitter. With Mulder well over 100 pitches, I think he's probably tired. Yet, he stays in the game after Biggio singles to center.

Update: Taveras grounds out to second to end the inning. The Astros still don't have a hit with runners in scoring position in the series.

Albert Pujols launches a pitch over the left field wall to put the Cardinals on the scoreboard. It's 2-1 Astros in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Oswalt retires the rest of the lineup in order. The Astros are holding on to a one-run lead.

Edmonds makes up for his strikeout with a diving play on a long hit into right center by Morgan Ensberg. With Berkman at first, he might have save a run there. Lane is up in the 6th.

Update: Lane strikes out swinging. That's five for Mulder.

Update: Burke grounds out to first to end the inning. Mulder is at 100 pitches.

With one out, Yadier Molinda bounces a double into the seats in right center. Mulder is indeed batting.

Update: Oswalt doesn't fool around with breaking balls and strikes out Mulder.

Update: Eckstein works the count to 3-2 and draws the walk. First and second with two out for Edmonds, who strikes out often against Oswalt, including one tonight.

Update: Edmonds works the count to 3-2, and Oswalt gets him with a perfect strike at the knees. Jim is left looking, and the Cardinals leave two on base.

Brad Ausmus leads off the fifth with a double to deep center. Edmonds was playing shallow and couldn't get back to catch the drive.

Update: Oswalt's bunt puts Ausmus at third with one out.

Update: Biggio hits a slow roller, grounding out but driving in Ausmus. The Astros lead 2-0, and stil don't have a hit in the series with runners in scoring position. It just show that particular statisic doesn't always tell the story.

Update: No more damage as Taveras grounds back to Mulder. The bottom of the order is due up for the Cardinals. Mulder is at 84 pitches through five innings. Does La Russa pinch hit for Mark at this point? The truth will be out there in a few minutes. :-)

Ensberg dives for a Reggie Sanders grounder. He tries to make the throw but it ends up going into the dugout to Sanders at second. It's a hit and an error.

Update: Grudzielanek grounds out to end the fourth. Oswalt has a two-hitter going.

Mulder gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the top of the fourth. Kudos to the big lefty for not allowing a hit to Chris "Babe" Burke!

One third of the game is gone and Houston is holding on to a 1-0 lead. Mulder is being worked, with 58 pitches through three innings. He's struck out three and walked two, one of those to the opposing pitcher. He's also given up the only extra-base hit of the game.

Oswalt is pitching better, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out three. He's averaging just 15 pitches an inning.

Taveras hits the ball hard to Eckstein in the hole, and the ball eats up David. Taveras is two for two tonight, but both hits come on poor fielding plays.

Update: Berkman drives the ball to deep left center, where Edmonds tracks it down.

Update: Molina takes a low pitch and throws out Taveras. Ensberg flies out to Walker to end the inning. Runners were only 2 for 10 trying to steal against Mulder during the regular season.

Once again, Mark Grudzielanek makes a mistake. He makes contact and shatters his bat. He starts toward first and stops as Oswalt makes the play. He claimed the ball hit him in the foot, and the replay shows it does. But I think heading to first indicated to the ump a fair ball, and he's called out.

Oswalt gets the side in order in the second.

Chris Burke triples with one out in the top of the second inning. Aggressive base running as Burke is almost thrown out. The throw beats Burke, but Chris beats the tag. That's three consecutive extra-base hits for Burke, and his fourth hit this post-season is a double.

Update: Everett grounds out, failing to advance Burke. They're walking Ausmus to pitch to Oswalt.

Update: Yadir Molina fails to catch the pitch and Burke scores from third to give the Astros a 1-0 lead. Ausmus was running and gets a stolen base. For some reason, Mulder isn't going straight after Oswalt, and walks him on four pitches. Unbelievable.

Update: Mulder was throwing breaking balls to Oswalt, but starts Biggio with a fast ball for strike one.

Update: Biggio strikes out swinging. The Astros take a 1-0 lead but for the second inning in a row are 0-2 with runners in scoring position.

David Eckstein sends a dying line drive into right field, where Jason Lane makes an excellent sliding catch for the first out in the bottom of the first.

Update: Edmonds goes the opposite way for the Cardinals' first hit, a line drive by Ensberg into left.

Update: Pujols grounds to shortstop, but Edmonds is on the move so the Astros can only get the out at first. Larry Walker is up.

Update: The appropriately named Larry Walker takes ball four. Reggie Sanders is up.

Update: Sanders grounds out to end the inning. Both pitchers were worked decently. Mulder threw 20 pitches, 13 for strikes. Oswalt's pitch count was 23, also with 13 strikes.

Craig Biggio works the count to 3-2, then singles to left to start the game. It's Biggio's first hit against Mulder in 15 at bats.

Update: A big error by Mark Grudzielanek. He fails to cover first on a bunt, and Taveras is safe. The Astros were giving away an out, and the Cardinals failed to take it.

Update: Berkman chases a ball out of the strike zone for strike three.

Update: Ensberg bounces back to the pitcher for a double play. The Astros are now 0 for 8 in the series with runners in scoring position.

The Bard puts The Call in rhyme.

Game two of the NLCS gets underway tonight with Roy Oswalt of the Astros facing Mark Mulder of the Cardinals. Oswalt had a poor season against the Cardinals. His only win came when St. Louis had wrapped up the division and home field advantage. Home runs were the key to the Cardinals success against Roy. Three of the 18 home runs he allowed were to St. Louis.

Unlike Pettitte, Oswalt was not stellar down the stretch. Excellent games against the Cardinals, Brewers and Phillies were punctuated with poor starts versus the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers. When it mattered, the Cardinals had Roy's number. Keep your eye on the Edmonds/Oswalt matchup, however. Roy's struck Jim out 15 times in 35 at bats.

Mulder started four times vs. the Astros and pitched well in three of the four games. His ten inning shutout of the Astros vs. Roger Clemens was one of the highlights of the season. One reason for Mulder's success vs. the Astros is that Houston has the lowest batting average and on base average vs. lefties in the NL, and they were 13th in slugging vs. south paws.

Enjoy!

In two of my past jobs, the people I worked with were interested various problems that could be classified as pattern recognition. Basically, a computer program is given a series of inputs, and what those inputs mean. From that, the computer program builds a probability model. Given an unknown input, the program uses the probability model to decide which of the items it knows about matches the input best.

The example all of you know about is Google. You give the Google search engine a pattern of words, and Google gives you a list of files that best match your query. If you give the same inputs to a different search engine, you get different results. One reason is that different search engines cover different parts of the web. The other is that they use different algorithms to find the answer.

Humans are really good at this. Hitters in baseball do this all the time, recognizing a pitch from the arm angle of the pitcher, his release point, the spin of the ball, and many other variables they don't even know they are using. However, not all inputs are always available to us, so we make do with what we have and what we trust. The strikeout + error last night is a great example of this.

There were three decisions made last night based on different inputs from the play. Josh Paul, the catcher, used a single input in determining that the batter was out; he caught the ball. In his experience, that was enough to tell him the batter was out. The fielders on the Angels, and the fans in the stands just had a visual input. All game long they saw the swinging third strike call by Eddings. When they saw the exact same call on Pierzynski their model told them the batter was out. That was their signal the inning was over, and the Angels ran off the field.

Pierzynski, however, was in a unique position to get the play right. He caught the whole game with his back to the umpire. That forced A.J. to build a probability model based on auditory, not visual signals. So when he struck out and headed to the dugout, his brain set off an alert. The auditory model he had built listening to Eddings was screaming, "You're not out!" Because of his experience making the same mistake as Paul, Pierzynski believed the auditory model and headed to first. A.J. was the only person involved who made the right decision. Any other White Sox hitter would not have built the correct pattern recognizer, and the game would have been decided in extra innings.

First of all, let me say thanks to all the readers who contributed comments to the Bad Call in Chicago post. There's an excellent discussion there, and here's a sample:

From Michael:

For anyone with MLB.tv, take a look at the Royals-Angels game back on April 8th of this year. In the bottom of the first inning (right around 15:45 into the video), Darin Erstad strikes out and the ball gets away from the catcher but Erstad is retired at first.

Why does this matter? Well it's because the HP umpire in that game was Doug Eddings and on that very play the only motion he makes is sticking out his right arm but NEVER pumps his fist.

After watching the video of that, you MUST ASSUME that the fist signified an out. An umpire doesn't suddenly change his motions within a season. Now I understand you can't protest a game because of the judgment of an umpire, but this now begs the question of if you can protest based on the issue that Eddings signaled an out. Now it's time for Eddings to admit he made a mistake and MLB to do something (at least admit it was the wrong call and misleading gesture) about this whole mess.

And from Jeff:

Paul never saw the ump signal out, but Im sure his teammates did, and Im sure Paul saw them running off the field

One thing is clear. When Eddings is interviewed after the game, he says he used his normal strike mechanic to call the play. That appears to be making a fist with his thumb up in front of the chest. Eddings is wrong there. On strike one or two, he does use that sign for a strike. But on a swinging third strike he sends his right arm out to the side with his palm parallel to the ground, and only when he's sure of the out does he give the fist and thumb. Eddings signaled an out with his hands last night. There's no doubt of that.

What's wasn't clear last night was why Josh Paul thought Pierzynski was out. Tom Verducci writes on that:

Here's the problem with the Angels' argument: Paul admitted that whatever Eddings did had no bearing on his decision to roll the ball back to the mound.

"I caught the ball so I thought the inning was over," Paul said.

Stop right there. Paul's job for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is to catch. It is not his job to umpire. It is not his call.

So there were two mistakes. Paul didn't wait for the call. When the hand signal comes, it's a clear out. Paul thinks the inning is over because he made the catch. The rest of the Angels think the inning is over because Eddings made the out call. If Eddings leaves his arm out to the side as he usually does in these situations, someone on the Angels grabs the ball and throws A.J. out at first. Paul deserves the error, but Eddings ought to admit he made a mistake, too, and that was not his normal strike three call.

By the way, in reading the rule book on the umpire, I don't see it mentioned anywhere how the umpire signals the result of plays. Is it in another section?

There didn't seem to be that much difference in offense tonight between the two teams. The Cardinals had one more hit (8 to 7) but each team drew three walks. Houston had three extra base hits to the Cardinals one. Houston even turned one more double play.

The problem tonight was timing. The Astros were 0 for 6 with men in scoring position, the Cardinals 2 for 5. When most of your line up is composed of weak hitters, it's likely you'll have one up when there's a man on base.

Carpenter did not pitch a great game as he walked three and only struck out three over eight innings. The Astros should have scored more against him.

Pettitte always seems to have one lousy game during the post season. I guess this was it.

Pierzynski strikes out, and Paul runs off the field. Pierzynski runs to first and is called safe. The replay shows Paul caught the ball. What bothers me is that the umpire made what looked like an out call on the play.

Update: Ozuna is pinch running. He steals second.

Update: Crede lines an 0-2 pitch off the left field wall to score Ozuna and give the White Sox a 2-1 win. The first call against the Angels in the post season leads to a defeat.

Update: The broadcast crew notices the out call after the strike out, too.

Update: Pierzynski says he didn't hear the umpire call out.

Update: One of the commenters made the point that what appears to be an out call is Eddings' strike call. However, he stuck his right arm out first, then brought it in for the fist pump. That looked to me like he called the strike with the arm out, then pumped the first to call him out. I'd like to hear what the catcher Paul has to say about it.

Update: The Baseball Tonight crew makes a good point. Pierzynski headed to first because he didn't hear an out call. Paul had been in long enough and caught enough strike outs to know how Eddings called a strike out. A.J. didn't hear what he should have heard, so he headed to first. So what did Paul hear or not hear?

Update: Eddings just had a news conference. He says he never verbally called the batter out. The supervisor said a batter is not called out if he starts toward the dugout. He's not out until he reaches the dugout steps.

According to one of the questions, Paul says umpires usually say, "No catch!" when the ball hits the ground. Eddings didn't do that. From that, I take it that Eddings didn't say, "out," either.

The umps are also claiming that from the replays they saw, the ball changed direction. As Harold Reynolds pointed out, it can change direction and still be in the glove.

One reporter pointed out that Eddings' strike call looks like an out call, and if anyone had pointed that out to him before. He said no, he never had a problem with it until now.

Has anyone seen an interview with Paul?

Update: They're interviewing Paul next on Sports Center.

Update: That was a useless interview. They didn't ask him what he heard from the ump!

Update: Good work by Drew in the comments. He writes:

Eddings contradicts himself..... on the batter before AJ, Aaron Rowand, when the ball got loose after he swung at strike 3, Eddings points to the ball, and ONLY RINGS HIM UP AFTER PAUL TAGS HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ringing him up IS NOT his normal strike 3 mechanics, as proved by the very batter before.

I just watched it on Tivo. Rowand swings and misses. Eddings right arm goes out straight. Paul tags Rowand, and Eddings pumps his fist!

Mark gets the side 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth. He made one mistake, the homer to Quinlan, that's keeping him from the win right now. He's only thrown 99 pitches, so he can come out for the tenth if the game goes that far.

They are going to the top of the ninth in St. Louis with the Cardinals ahead 5-2.

Update: Isringhausen is in to pitch, and Lamb gets a little leadoff single.

Update: With one out, an infield single brings the tying run to the plate.

Update: After an error, Ausmus hits a sac fly, but St. Louis gets out of the inning to win the game 5-3.

Dye singles with two outs to bring up Konerko.

Update: Konerko strikes out, as Escobar gets all three outs via the K. The Angels pen has struck out six of the eleven batters they've faced.

Jose Molina singles to start the 8th. Scioscia uses DaVanon as a pinch runner, and luckily he has three catchers on the roster so he doesn't need to move Bengie out of the DH slot.

Update: Gene Mauch is smiling as the Angels execute another sacrifice as Kennedy moves DaVanon to second.

Update: Figgins grounds to short but moves the runner to third. Now a wild pitch or passed ball scores the run.

Update: On a 3-1 pitch, Cabrera gives the ball a ride, but Podsednik catches it against the wall to end the inning. Buehrle's at 91 pitches through eight innings, 65 for strikes.

Joe Crede doubles with one out to give the White Sox a runner in scoring position. Uribe lines to deep center, and Anderson doubles off Crede on the force. Another bad base running play by the White Sox.

Burke pinch hits for Pettitte and homers to cut the St. Louis lead to three. That home runs in consecutive at bats for Chris. It's 5-2 St. Louis in the top of the seventh.

Kelvim Escobar starts the bottom of the seventh for the Angels.

Mark Buehrle retires the Angels in order in the seventh, including a strikeout of Quinlan. Mark's only thrown 80 pitches through seven innings.

Scott Shields is in to pitch the 6th after going two innings last night.

Update: Shields retires the side in order, striking out two. The Angels pen struck out 3 of 4 batters so far.

Orlando Cabrera singles to start the sixth inning. I'm going to concentrate on this game since it's more in doubt at the moment.

Guerrero hits into a double play to clear the bases.

Update: It's funny that they keep playing the A-Rod/Vlad Pepsi commerical. Neither has an RBI in the 2005 post season. Bengie Molina strikes out to end the inning.

With a man on second, David Eckstein singles to right, driving in Nunez. David is two for three with a run and an RBI so far tonight.

Update: Pujols singles in Eckstein with two out. It's 5-0 Cardinals now. They're having no trouble with Andy Pettitte tonight.

Pierzynski walks and Uribe singles with one out in the bottom of the fifth. The White Sox have men on 1st and 2nd for Podsednik.

Update: Podsednik pops out to third. With the count 1-1, and and Washburn getting his pitches up, Podsednik swings at a high pitch that puts him in a hole 1-2. Once again, the White Sox are being aggressive when they should be selective with a pitcher who is tiring.

Update: Washburn hits Iguchi, and that's it for Jarrod. He leaves with the bases loaded after a gutty performance. Donnelly in to face Dye.

Update: Donnelly strikes out Dye on three pitches to end the inning. It's tied at 1 after five.

Quinlan homers to center leading off the fifth inning, tying the game at one. After an Erstad single, Jose Molina bunts right in front of the plate and Pierzynski makes the play at second base.

Update: No other damage in the inning. This game between two evenly matched teams is tied at 1.

Ensberg doubles to lead off the fourth. Lamb moves him to third with a grounder. The Astros are getting base runners. The have three hits and two walks so far. If they keep doing that, they'll eventually come around to score.

Update: Lane walks to put runners on 1st and 3rd. That's three walks issued by Carpenter.

Update: Carpenter walked one about every five innings during the regular season.

Update: On a tapper to Nunez, Abraham throws out Ensberg at the plate. Great throw by Nunez and a nice tag by Y. Molina. Ausmus grounds out to end the inning. The Cards still lead 3-0.

Orlando Cabrera doubles with one out for the first hit for the Angels. Vlad follows with a hard grounder to Crede on the first pitch. I can't flip from this game as Buehrle works so fast, and the Angels swing so early, I miss two plays if I go away for 30 seconds.

Buehrle hits Molina in the right foot to put men at 1st and 2nd with two out.

Update: Anderson falls behind 0-2, fouls off a number of pitches, then grounds out to third. Buehrle maintains his 1-0 lead.

With one out, the Astros have Ausmus on second and Biggio on second for Taveras in the top of the third.

Update: Houston loads the bases for Berkman, but no grand slam this time. He hits into a double play to end the inning.

The White Sox are not doing that good a job of inducing fatigue in Washburn. He's thrown 43 pitches through three, or 14 per inning. Not exactly working the count.

Two singles put runners on first and third for Chris Carpenter. Carpenter puts down a perfect squeeze bunt to score Grudzielanek from third. With the Cardinals up 3-0, Pettitte has allowed as many runs in these two innings as he did against the Cardinals in 20 innings during the season.

Jose Uribe tried to be a little too cool on fielding a Jose Molina grounder. He scoops the ground ball with one hand, then makes a bad throw to first to allow Jose to reach. He looked way too nonchalant on the play.

Update: Buehrle gets a comebacker, and Uribe is the pivot on the double play. Mark still has the no-hitter, but his perfect game is gone.

Aaron Rowand hits a ball into the right field corner, and Vlad bobbles it. Rowand goes for three, Guerrero over throws two cutoff men and Rowand makes it easily. The ball bounds away from Quinlan and Rowand heads home. Quinlan recovers, throws home, and just nips Rowand at the plate. It looked a lot closer on the replay than it did in real time.

I can't fault Rowand for going on the play. The coach sent him, and there was a good chance Aaron could make it. Instead, the White Sox have a scoreless second inning.

Buehrle retires the side in order in the second. He's thrown just 23 pitches and is striking out a batter an inning.

David Eckstein starts the Cardinals first with a single to right.

Update: Reggie Sanders is batting cleanup vs. the lefty, and he cleans up tonight. With two out he drives a ball into the left field seats to give St. Louis a 2-0 lead. Sanders now has 12 RBI in 3 games and 1 inning.

Washburn gets Podsednik to ground back to the mound, but make a terrible throw, over the head of Erstad, putting Scott at second. Iguchi bunts him over, and Washburn almost throws the ball away low.

The White Sox may just need to keep hitting the ball back to Washburn. :-)

Update: The Angels trade a run for an out as Dye grounds to short, driving in Podsednik. The White Sox lead 1-0.

With two out in the first, Berkman hit a ball deep to straight away center. Edmonds was going right, the ball was going left, and it went just off Edmonds glove.

Carpenter fields a comebacker from Ensberg to end the inning.

Figgins flys out to center to start the game.

Update: Buehrle retires the side in order, getting two ground outs. He throws just nine pitches.

It's such a great evening, let's watch two!

I meant to publish this yesterday, but I saved it as a draft. Sorry.

	St. Louis		Houston
2005	Value	NL Rank	Value	NL Rank
Runs per Game	4.97	3rd	4.25	11th
Batting Average	.270	2nd-T	.256	13th-T
On-Base Average	.338	3rd-T	.322	12th
Slugging Percentage	.422	6th-T	.408	11th
ERA	3.48	1st	3.51	2nd

I don't really see why experts are picking the Astros over the Cardinals. The Cardinals have a clearly superior offense and pitching that is equal to the Astros. Most of the people who pick the Astros see the front three of the Houston rotation being untouchable. I just don't see where that's true. Clemens and Pettitte have excellent ERAs vs. the Cardinals, but the Astros are a combined 2-5 in their starts vs. St. Louis. The Cardinals have no trouble at all with Oswalt. I just don't see the superiority of the Astros pitchers in the results from this season.

The run prediction formula also heavily favors the Cardinals. St. Louis scores 4.97 runs per game and allows 3.91. Houston scored 4.25 runs per game and allows 3.74. With the NL average at 4.44, the formula predicts the Cardinals outscoring the Astros 4.09 to 3.77. It's really no contest.

You can see this in a position by position comparison. Not fielding positions, but batting slots. Of the eight slots, St. Louis is clearly superior in five of them (1, 2, 3, 5, and 7). Houston wins two (Ensberg over Walker in the 4th slot, Ausmus over Molina in the 8th slot). The sixth slot is a bit of a draw, with Grudzielanek having the better OBA but Lane making up for it with power. Basically, the Cardinals have a money ball lineup, with seven of their players having OBAs over league average, while the Astros only have three such players, and one of them bats eighth. And when the Cardinals win a slot, they tend to win it big.

The Astros have to start Backe in game 4. Oswalt might be able to start games 1, 4 and 7 but who knows if Pettitte is strong enough after his injury to risk it, and Clemens never pitched well on short rest. With Backe in the rotation, the Cardinals are guaranteed a mediocre pitcher to pound in one game.

There are too many tough outs in the Cardinals lineup, and not enough in the Houston order. The way Smoltz and Hudson (in his second start) handled the Astros is the way the entire St. Louis rotation is capable of pitching against Houston. I see the series as going to St. Louis fairly easily.

Two games today. Unfortunately, they're played at the same time. This is very disappointing, as I like to concentrate on one game at a time. I'll be using the flashback button on my remote quite a bit to switch games between pitches.

It's a battle of lefties in Chicago tonight as Jarrod Washburn faces Mark Buehrle. Washburn did not pitch in the ALDS as an illness took him out of a game four start. One question tonight is how well he's recovered. The White Sox may want to change their strategy tonight and be less aggressive with Washburn. Forcing him to throw lots of pitches early will likely wear him down and give Chicago a chance to score some runs before the bullpen arrives.

Buehrle's only weakness is a moderate strikeout rate, just 5.7 per 9. He depends on the great defense behind him to turn batted balls into outs. The Angles should have a fairly easy time putting balls in play, the question is will they fall for hits.

The lefty-lefty matchup helps both offenses. Each did better against lefties than righties this year. But while the Angels hit for a higher batting average against south paws, the White Sox win out in OBA and have a big advantage in slugging percentage, finishing over 30 points ahead of the Angels.

In St. Louis, it's left vs. right as Andy Pettitte takes on Chris Carpenter. Pettitte made three starts against the Cardinals this season, posting a 1.35 ERA giving up just three runs in 20 innings. His record was 0-1, and his team's record was 1-2. On June 3rd, Pettitte allowed 1 run over 7 innings, but Carpenter pitched eight shutout innings for the win. On July 15th, Pettitte went the same number of innings giving up the same number of runs, but this time Mulder held the Astros at bay until the bullpens battled to a 4-3 Cardinals win in extra innings. Even the win the Astros took home on April six saw Jason Marquis battle Pettitte to a draw over six innings.

The Cardinals pitchers can hang with Pettitte. I suspect another close game. The winner tonight can easily come down to which bullpen performs better.

Enjoy!

Two of my favorite people at ESPN.com dissect Game 1 of the ALCS.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz profiles Lance Berkman as the anti-Killer B.

Personality wise, Lance Berkman is the anti-Killer B. He doesn't show up early or leave late, traits Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio have displayed while setting a high standard for generations of Astros.

He's witty and outspoken, entertaining teammates and media with impersonations and cutting jabs. He's a hitter above all else, though, which often leaves fans and teammates in awe of his majestic home runs or flabbergasted after his gaffes on the bases or in the field because his mind was on hitting.

So next time Berkman is making a mistake in the field, remember it's due to his concentration on hitting:

"There have been times when I've made baserunning mistakes and done different things, maybe defensively forgot how many outs there were because I was thinking about either what I did in my last at-bat or what I'm going to do in my next at-bat," said Berkman, the best hitter the Astros will throw at the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series, which begins tonight at Busch Stadium. "I know my job is to drive in runs, score runs and get on base. I'm constantly thinking about that, sometimes to the detriment of the team."

It reminds me of that great quote from Revenge of the Nerds. "Jocks only think about sports..." :-)

Last night, when Pierzynski ran into an out, there was speculation that the batter missed a hit and run sign. It turns out it was A.J. who misread the sign:

The seventh inning was another wasted opportunity. Aaron Rowand was hit by Byrd on the first pitch of the inning, convincing Angels manager Mike Scioscia to make a pitching change. After Scot Shields got Pierzynski to hit into a force out, Crede took a pitch and Pierzynski easily was caught stealing.

''I saw hit and run so I took off,'' Pierzynski said. ''Did I miss a sign? I guess I did, I don't know. I asked [first-base coach Tim Raines] and he wasn't sure, either.''

Some media advice for A.J. Don't blame someone else for your mistake.

Paul Konerko didn't have a problem with Dye's bunt attempt.

Dye's next act was quite more egregious. With the Sox already trailing by the eventual final score, he led off the sixth by trying to bunt his way on. Not exactly standard from a No. 3 hitter with 31 homers.

Worse, Dye's little popup back to the mound came on Paul Byrd's first pitch of the inning, setting up a five-pitch inning for the veteran right-hander at a time he may have been prone to being waited out into the end of his rope.

"That's the way we play. We're aggressive," said Konerko, figuring the attempt had Guillen's seal of approval. "Ozzie doesn't fault that. It's an aggressive mistake, which you can make when you play the game to win.

"You have to try to take it to them. No one had a problem with that. Against those guys, you've got to make things happen."

Jermaine did not sacrifice this season. I'm curious to know if he bunted for a hit during the season (feel free to leave the info in the comments). I doubt he's a good bunter, since he's not called on to bunt very often. I don't think it's that bad a play leading off an inning. The White Sox needed a base runner, and if you can lay one down the third base line, it will keep the defense guessing in the future. But it does take a little bit of practice, and I don't know if Dye had that.

K-Rod in, and Everett hits a shot that eats up Chone Figgins. The White Sox get the lead off man on.

Update: Ozuna pinch runs for Everett, and it looks like Rowand is going to bunt as he fouls off the first pitch after squaring.

Update: Figgins makes up for the error by getting the runner at second on the bunt attempt. The White Sox are not executing the game plan offensively tonight.

Update: Pierzynski lines a shot to right, but Rivera is there to pull it in. The White Sox are down to their last out, and Crede is up.

Update: Crede strikes out swinging to end the game, and give the Angels a 1-0 lead in the ALCS. They also gain home field advantage.

Both starters pitched great games. For the Angels offense, they once again took advantage of defensive miscues. The White Sox failed to steal, failed to sacrifice, and failed to stop the running game. These are two evenly matched teams, and they showed that tonight. My guess is that this will continue to be a close series.

I've very surprised to see Contreras start the ninth. After Guerrero almost homered, with a bullpen that hasn't worked in days, why is Ozzie not going to the bullpen?

Anderson flies out to start the inning.

Update: Molina follows up with a single to center. That appears to be it for Contreras. A great effort. He throws 102 pitches, 68 for strikes. He gives up seven hits, but no walks and strikes out four. Only one of the hits was for extra bases, the home run by Anderson. That effort is usually good enough to win.

Update: Cotts is on in relief. An aptly named pitcher for the tired Angels.

Update: Erstad grounds into a force out. The ball was hit too slow to get the double play.

Update: Rivera pops to second to end the inning. The White Sox have three outs to get one run.

Uribe starts off the 8th with a lucky hit of his own, a broken bat, strange bounce ground that he beats out for a single.

Update: Podsednik can't execute a bunt, then strikes out looking with two strikes. The White Sox are not doing a good job of executing smart ball tonight with the caught stealings and the missed bunt.

Update: Iguchi pops to short, no advance by the runner.

Update: Wow. Dye single to right, Uribe rounds second and decides not to go to third. He walks back to second and the throw from Rivera almost gets him. That should get him yelled at for not hustling.

Update: Konerko flies out to shallow center to end the threat. K-Rod will get to face the weak part of the Sox order in the bottom of the ninth.

The White Sox have two pitchers warming up just in case, but Contreras gets Kennedy to ground back to the box for the first out of the inning.

Update: A lucky bounce for Figgins puts Chone at first. The ball hit the first base bag and bounded over Konerko.

Update: Not a good night for Pierzynski and the running game. The White Sox pitch out, but A.J. double clutches and Figgins steals the base easily.

Update: Uribe makes another great throw from the hole to get Cabrera and hold Figgins at second.

Update: Guillen comes out to talk to Contreras, and he's leaving Jose in to pitch to Guerrero.

Update: Guerrero hits a shot, but Rowand catches at the wall in right center. A little less wind and we'd be saying Guillen left Contreras in one batter two long. Instead, he's through eight innings, but in line for the loss.

Shields is warming up in the bullpen. Scioscia is prepared for trouble.

Update: Byrd hits Rowand in the back to start the inning.

Update: That's it for Byrd. A great effort on short rest. That's the third well pitched game on short rest we've seen this post season. Shields is coming in to pitch to Pierzynski.

Update: The Angels almost throw away a force out. Pierzynski grounds to Kennedy, who flips high to Cabrera. Orlando comes down on the bag for the first out.

Update: I don't believe what I just saw. Pierzynski tries to steal 2nd, and is thrown out.

Bill James came up with a World Series prediction system many years ago that showed that teams that were aggressive on the base paths tended not to win. Better teams were better at throwing out runners, both stealing and from the outfield. I don't know if the system holds true now, but A.J. just took them out of an inning.

Shields gets the third out to send the game to the eighth with the Angels still in the lead.

Erstad breaks the streak of 12 straight batters retired with a pop single to shallow center. Rowand came very close to catching the ball.

Erstand runs and successfully steals second. The White Sox stolen base percentage was much worse than their opponents this season.

Update: Juan Rivera pops out to first. Finley gets a chance to drive in a run.

Update: Finley strikes out on three pitches, waving at two splitters. The score remains 3-2 White Sox. Byrd has the team to the seventh, so the Angels bullpen should be ready to go at the first sign of trouble.

Paul Byrd pitches an extremely easy sixth inning. A bunt pop by Dye on the first pitch and two fly outs to center preserve the lead. Byrd, like Contreras is not wasting pitches, throwing just 72 through six innings, 46 for strikes.

Contreras pitches another 1-2-3 inning, retiring 11 in a row. He's lowered his pitch count a bit, with 68 through six innings. He's also starting to strike out batters, getting one each over the last two inning to bring his total to three. The score remains 3-2 Angels in the middle of the sixth.

Scott Podsednik draws the first walk of the game with one out in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: Mike Scioscia calls a pitch out and Podsednik is running. Molina throws out Podsednik easily. Scioscia is great at calling pitch outs. Good scouting by the Angels.

Contreras retires the side in order in the fifth. That's eight in a row he's set down. He's still keeping his pitch count down, throwing just 62 through five innings, 40 for strikes.

With Everett at second and two out, Pierzynski singles to right to pick up the RBI and cut the score to 3-2 LAnaheim.

Update: Crede strikes out to end the inning. The teams are really putting the ball in play tonight. Neither pitcher has issued a walk, and each struck out just one. Thirty-three batters so far, 31 balls in play.

Contreras pitches a 1-2-3 inning in the fourth. He continues to be efficient, throwing just 51 pitches through four innings.

Joe Crede makes up for his fielding miscue with a home run to left field. Byrd has allowed six runs to the White Sox this year, four driven in by home runs.

Update: The White Sox are measuring Byrd. With two outs, Podsednik and Iguchi single to put runners at first and second.

Update: Dye fouls out to Erstad to end the inning. It's 3-1 Angels after three.

Steve Finley led off the inning with a single. With no one on, Scioscia had to let him hit. :-) That's his second hit of the post season.

Kennedy follows with a hit and run single, but Finley can't advance to third on the hard hit to left.

Update: The Angels give away an out as Figgins sacrifices. That sets up power hitter and great RBI man Orlando Cabrera.

Update: Cabrera taps one to third. Crede double clutches, doesn't throw home, then throws late to first. The Angels take advantage of another fielding miscue.

Update: Wow. Guerrero taps back to Contreras. He goes for the double play and gets the out at second, but Iguchi throws the ball away as Cabrera barrels into the second baseman. The runner scores from third to give the Angels a 2-0 lead. The Angels put the ball in play, and good things continue to happen.

Update: Contreras gets Anderson to ground out to the shift to end the inning. The Angels luck continues. Two runs score on two soft grounders as fielders make bad decisions.

I just love Paul Byrd's wind up.

Update: Another 1-2-3 inning for Paul Byrd. The batters are making it easy on the starters, swinging early in the count. Through two innings, Contreras threw just 20 pitches, and Byrd 17.

Garret Anderson leads off the 2nd with his third home run of the post-season. He's had six hits this post season, four for extra bases. The Angels lead 1-0.

Update: Contreras gets the next three batters easily. Remember, Jose gave up 17 of his 23 home runs at home this year.

Podsednik starts the White Sox half of the first with a pop to short. Byrd fell down on the first pitch. I think he slipped.

Update: Iguchi popped to first.

Update: Dye flies out to deep right. Byrd throws 8 pitches, 6 for strikes. It looks like this might be a quick a game. That's what happens when pitchers throw strikes and both teams like to put the ball in play.

Figgins strikes out to start the ball game.

Update: Cabrera pops out to first for the second out.

Update: Uribe throws out Guerrero from deep in the hole. It's the first example of better defense helping the White Sox. Jeter doesn't make that play.

Conteras retires the side on 13 pitches, 9 for strikes.

The League Championship Series gets underway tonight with the Chicago White Sox hosting the LAnaheim Angels. (One great thing about the Angels making it this far is that I get to write LAnaheim for another week!) Paul Byrd takes the mound for the weary Angels against second half phenom Jose Contreras.

Byrd's great strength is wasted on the White Sox. Byrd doesn't walk many batters, just 28 in 204 1/3 innings. But the White Sox don't take many walks. They ranked 11th in the AL in walks drawn. What the White do is hit home runs. In the one game Byrd started against Chicago, he walked no one in 6 innings, but gave up two home runs bringing in three of the five runs he allowed.

Contreras is susceptible to the home run at Comiskey, having allowed 17 of his 23 dingers there. However, since the start of August, he's allowed just three home runs total, two at his home park. Jose is very consistent across his splits, equally as good vs. lefties and righties and in various on-base situations.

Enjoy!

Deadspin is very excited to have Ozzie Guillen managing in the ALCS.

	Chicago		LAnaheim
2005	Value	AL Rank	Value	AL Rank
Runs per Game	4.57	9th	4.70	7th
Batting Average	.262	11th-T	.270	6th
On-Base Average	.322	11th-T	.325	9th
Slugging Percentage	.425	7th-T	.409	9th
ERA	3.61	1st-T	3.68	3rd

Although the White Sox posted a better ERA than the Angels, LAnaheim actually allowed fewer runs than Chicago. It was very close, but the Angels allowed 643 runs to 645 for the White Sox. Defensively, these teams appear to be as even as you can imagine overall.

If you calculate predicted runs scored based on these numbers, LAnaheim comes out slightly on top. The prediction is the Angels over the White Sox by 0.1 runs, 3.97-3.87. The pitching on both teams is so good that we're forced into the realm of close games, a place where the White Sox thrive.

There is, however, an adjustment to be made for their home fields. The Park Index for 1 or 3 years indicates that runs are much more plentiful in the park formerly known as Comiskey than at the Big A. Chicago increases run scoring by about 10 percent while LAnaheim decreases it by 6%. This puts the White Sox pitching and defense ahead of the Angels, but gives a big boost to the LAnaheim offense.

With the adjustments for park in place, the runs prediction is even closer, now with the White Sox edging out the Angels 3.78 to 3.77. We have two very evenly matched teams facing each other in this series.

The problem right now for the Angels is the pitching rotation. The Angels blew out three starters in the last two days, with Colon getting hurt. They also used Kelvim Escobar last night, another candidate for a spot start. That leaves them with Byrd to start tonight, and Washburn penciled in for tomorrow if he's over his illness. Basically, 1-2 for Chicago will be facing 3-4 for the Angels in the first two games.

What happens after that, however, depends a lot on Colon's shoulder. I could see Scioscia going with Lackey and Santana in games 3 and 4, then if Colon is healed putting Bartolo in for game five in Anaheim. Then, you can come back with a well rest Byrd and a normal rest Lackey, or go for broke and pitch Lackey and Santana in games six and seven on short rest. Scioscia did a very good job of manipulating his staff against the Yankees, and I expect the same in the ALCS.

Lineup construction goes to Ozzie Guillen. It's not a great lineup, but given the hand he's dealt, my only change would be to switch Dye and Konerko, getting Paul closer to the men who can get on base a little bit. But Guillen has the concept down. He has the guys who can get on base at the top, he has his best power right behind them, and then the order is in decreasing OBA after Everett (Everett is better than the .311 OBA he posted this season, so I don't have a problem with his batting fifth).

Scioscia, on the other hand, splits up Figgins and Guerrero and Figgins with Cabrera and his .309 OBA. He splits up Guerrero and Molina with Anderson and his .308 OBA. He bats Erstad in front of Rivera, despite Rivera's greater power. He bats Kennedy ninth, the player with the third best OBA on the team.

I know studies show that lineups don't matter, but I have to believe that bunching your best hitters together is superior to splitting them with outs. The White Sox aren't the Yankees. They have the second best DER in the American League, trailing just the Athletics. They are going to catch everything that is catchable. Fewer balls are going to scoot through the infield, fall in the gaps, or just in front of an outfielder. The Angels are going to need to earn their way on, which makes putting together rallies tougher. The Angels offense is better, but Ozzie's arrangement is more pleasing.

It's going to be a very close series. Both bullpens are great. Each strike out a ton of batters while walking few. Whoever is ahead after six could easily win each game. I'm looking for a series that goes down to the wire in a string of close games. I see the odds as 51-49 White Sox You might as well flip a coin.

Matt Thompson writes:

What is the reasoning behind MLB not delaying Game 1 of the ALCS one day. It seems that the White Sox gain a considerable advantage over the other ALDS winner due to a rain out, not a "baseball" reason...like playing 18 innings in one day. If the argument is that Fox has the broadcast rights, and they refuse to reschedule for the benefit of their programing/ratings, then MLB has greater issues than I thought. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

There are a number of issues at work here.

• Fox is paying a ton of money to major league baseball. They expect a game on Tuesday night. If baseball wants more control of when games are played, they are going to get less money. That means the owner and the players all get less money. They'll lose sleep over that.
• These games are covered by tons of other media. They've made hotel reservations, flight reservations, etc. Changing plans costs all these people money.
• The World Series is scheduled to start in the AL city. If the ALCS is on schedule, everyone has at worst two days lead time to set up for game 1. If you push the series end to Thursday, you cut that to one day. And if game 6 or 7 is rained out, you're scrambling. Baseball is trying to avoid that.

I was listening to WFAN today as I drove my dad home today, and they were discussing something else I didn't know. There's a union rule forbidding playing 3 consecutive games in different time zones. The union, however, waived that rule in this situation.

One of the reasons this is happening, by the way, is that clubs with higher seeds demanded a change to the first round. Five game playoffs used to be 2-3, with the higher seed getting the last 3 games at home. But too often, the higher seed was losing the first two games on the road and ended up being swept. As the higher seed, they felt they should get two home games, so now you have the ridiculous schedule where you may need to fly across the country to play a game five. It just goes to show that there are unintended consequences to decisions that appear beneficial on the surface.

And quite frankly, I don't have a lot of sympathy for either team. These are guys who play night games, party into the wee hours of the morning, get a few hours sleep and then come back to the ballpark. They're flying chartered jets where there is room to stretch out and sleep. I would suspect after playing baseball for over seven months straight they can afford to miss batting practice.

Whoever wins tonight is going to be happy to be playing tomorrow, no matter how tired they feel. They can sleep on Thursday.

Brian at Redbird Nation sums up the Cardinals victory. I really like the title, Hoosier Daddy.

He has plenty of praise for Jeff Suppan:

Jeff Suppan outdueled Roger Clemens tonight. You know that, I know that, but I don't care -- I'm gonna say it again because I like the way it rolls off the tongue: Jeff. Suppan. Outdueled. Roger. Clemens.

I never thought I'd be able to write that after 4 innings. Suppan was only down a run, but he was juggling chainsaws from the get-go -- there was the lead-off homer by Bidge, the long drive by Ausmus, the HBP leading off the top of the 4th. Meanwhile, Rocket was buzzsawing through our lineup. He wasn't vintage-era Roger Clemens, but he was hitting his spots with a sizzling, mid-90's fastball. I thought the 'Stros were going to be able to ride that all the way into Lidge Time.

But just as he did in Game 4 against the Dodgers and Game 3 against the Astros, Suppan got stronger as the game wore on. Against L.A. he set down the last 14 guys he faced; on Saturday he set down the last 10 he faced; and tonight it was the final 9. In his three starts this series he's given up only 10 hits (that's cumulative) and has held opponents to a .152 batting average.

Oh, and he also drove in the first Cardinals' run with a lovely suicide squeeze. Not bad, Mr. Soup Can.

Now we need to know if he can out-duel Schilling in game 3.

Vizcaino grounds out to 2nd to end the game. Congratulations to the Cardinals! Nice to see the best team in the league make it to the World Series. It will be an all red championship round.

What a weak ending for the Astros hitters. No patience, no working the pitcher. They had a great run, but they ran out of gas tonight.

The Cardinals big four came through again. All four of them slugged over .500 for the NLCS. I'm glad for Larry Walker, who's had a great long career. I'm happy for Scott Rolen, who was driven out of Philly onto a winner.

The Red Sox have to hope Tony La Russa will give away outs like he did tonight. The Red Sox will be making every effort to get on base with every hitter.

To the World Series!

Isringhausen is on to try to close the Astros out of the post season.

Update: Kent goes after the first pitch, and pops out to shallow right toward the foul line. Womack makes the sliding catch.

Ensberg follows and again swings at the first pitch! Why don't these guys take one to see if Izzy is tired!

A double by Anderson, a sac by Renteria and a broken bat single by Walker makes the score 5-3. Pujols follows with a single. Oswalt can't get an out, too bad La Russa gave one away.

Update: Oswalt gets Rolen to ground into a DP. This could be the Astros last AB of the year.

Julian Tavarez comes in to pitch the 8th.

Update: Beltran hits the ball up the middle, but Reneteria is right there. He bobbles the ball but still gets Carlos easily.

Update: Bagwell hits a hard line drive, but Renteria this time is playing in the hole and gloves the ball. Great defensive positioning by the Cardinals.

Update: Berkman hits a ball off Tavarez's broken hand. Renteria charges in front of 2nd to make the play. Tavarez was still on the mound in pain when Fox went to commerical. A great inning by Renteria. He was perfectly positioned on two hard hit balls, and made the big play on the deflection to end the inning.

Oswalt gets the Cardinals in order in the 7th, getting both Womack and Matheny on strikes. The big guns are up for the Astros. Their season may hang on this 1/2 inning.

Kiko Calero has a fairly easy 7th, just allowing one runner when he hits Palmeiro. Orlando was in for Clemens, and Oswalt will be coming on in relief. The Astros have Beltran, Bagwell and Berkman coming up in the 8th. That's the inning they have to make some noise.

La Russa is using or trying to use lots of one-run strategies tonight. That's fine with Suppan or Matheny, but I'm not so sure it's such a good idea with Renteria, especially with the heart of the lineup following. Now, they only have two outs to work with, and there is a good chance one of them might hit a HR, in which case it doesn't matter which base you're occupying.

(There actually is a Bunting Institute at Radcliffe. I used to joke that Phil Rizzuto taught there.)

Update: On a 1-2 count, Pujols delivers a double to drive Cedeno in from third with 2 outs. The game is tied at 2 in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: On the next pitch, Rolen takes the ball out of the park, a shot down the left field line. It's 4-2 Cardinals now. Too many balls in play for Clemens, and it's finally hurt Roger.

Update: Clemens does strike out Edmonds, but it's two batters too late. Now the Astros have to deal with the Cardinals bullpen for three innings.

Jeff Suppan is not pitching as well as Clemens, but he's only allowed 1 more run. Amazingly, he has six strikeouts through six innings while Clemens only has 1 through 5. We'll see if La Russa leads off with a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 6th.

Roger has still allowed only 1 hit and 1 run through 4 innings. He's only thrown 53 pitches, and since the first inning he's thrown 27 strikes and only 8 balls. He still, however, hasn't struck out a batter. The announcers think he's saving his off speed pitches for later in the game. Now that he's almost through the order twice, it will be interesting to see if he starts going to the splitter, and if his strikeouts go up.

Update: With the leadoff man on in the 5th, Clemens gets his first strikeout, getting Reggie Sanders.

Update: Tony Womack gets his 2nd hit of the night, and single to center to put men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. However, with the bottom of the lineup hitting, La Russa has Matheny try to bunt. When he misses, Ausmus picks off the leaning Womack.

I'm not sure of the strategy of bunting with Matheny. He is an easy out, but then you force yourself to lift the starting pitcher. It's moot, as Matheny flies out to center to end the inning.

Tony Womack, bad back and all, gets the first hit of the game for the Red Birds, lining a double and just beating the throw to second.

Update: After moving to third on a ground out, Suppan lays down a bunt for a perfect squeeze play. That's two runs on speed here in the 3rd inning.

Carlos Beltran uses his eyes and speed to score a run. He walks, steals 2nd, then on a fly to right center, tags up and tries to go to third. An error on the throw by Edmonds sends the ball into the dugout and Beltran home for a 2-0 lead.

Roger Clemens has retired the first six batters he's faced. However, he's not had a strikeout. Like Suppan not getting grounders, Clemens not striking out batters may be a sign of trouble.

However, in the best game I ever saw Clemens pitch, his 1-hitter against Cleveland, he only struck out five.

Roger Clemens retires the Cardinals 1-2-3 in the bottom of the first. However, of the 18 pitches he threw, 9 were balls. I would expect a higher ratio of strikes to balls from Roger. He's gotten a way with walking 10 in 19 innings this post season. That's not Clemens like. Walking Cardinals is dangerous since they have so much power in their lineup.

Suppan is warming up, Biggio is in the on-deck circle. Let the game begin!

Update: Craig Biggio does what he does so often, lead off the game with a home run. It was just inside the foul pole down the left field line. Astros get off to a 1-0 lead.

Update: Biggio's bomb is it. Suppan gave up 3 runs in the first in his last start against the Astros, then went five more scoreless innings.

The Astros and Cardinals play Game 7, Number 2 tonight under the lights at Busch. Boston fans are excited because former Red Sox pitcher Jeff Suppan is going for the Cardinals tonight, and if he wins, he'll probably pitch game 7 of the World Series at Fenway. Yes, Red Sox nation can't forget his 7-3 record and 5.69 ERA in 1997, nor his 12 HR allowed in 63 innings pitched in his return engagement last year. I'm sure the Fenway Fanatics hope that their former star doesn't return.

Suppan, like all of the Cardinals starters, is an okay pitcher. He doesn't strikeout too many, but he doesn't walk too many. He's also pretty good at getting batters to hit into double plays. Jeff does give up the long ball. He had a great start against LA, and one bad inning against Houston. The ball will be over the plate for the Astros; it's up to them to pound it.

And there's another former Boston pitcher on the mound tonight. Roger Clemens would also be in line to pitch game 7 in Boston should the Astros win tonight. Boston fans will remember that Clemens has an interesting post-season history. He's been a fine post-season hurler; he's 10-6 with a 3.40 ERA. But he's seldom lights out when you need him to be. And that 10-6 record excludes 13 no-decisions. Given Garner's managing of the bullpen yesterday in which Qualls pitched 3 innings, Wheeler 2 and Lidge 3, Phil must think he's going to get close to a complete game out of Roger today. I'd be surprised at that.

Clemens is not an automatic win in the post-season. (Go ask Boston fans about 1986 and 1990.) But he should be able to beat someone of Suppan's caliber. We'll find out tonight.

Sierra grounds out to Pokey Reese to give the Red Sox the AL Pennant! To quote Jack Buck, "I can't believe what I just saw!" I'll no longer be able to say I was at the last three World Series games at Fenway Park.

They're the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a seven game series. The did it against their arch rivals, in the ball park nicknamed after the greatest player they ever let go. It's a great night for the Red Sox fans, and I suspect there are going to be a lot of people late for work tomorrow morning.

I don't know what happened to the Yankees bats. They were on for the first three games, and switch off the rest of the way. They lost the process. They lost their timing. And the Red Sox took full advantage of that.

Schilling was a medical miracle. Lowe was a divine miracle. Damon was just divine. And David Ortiz provided the shoulders to carry them all. On to the World Series! We'll see who'll be visiting Fenway this weekend tomorrow night.

It's the Yankees last chance. They need seven runs. Matsui, Williams and Posada will try to get on base.

Update: Matsui does his job and leads off with a single.

Update: Williams forces Matsui, one out.

Update: Posada pops out. And the season comes down to Kenny Lofton.

Update: Yankees fans have to be asking themselves, "Where's Calvin Shiraldi when you need him?"

Timlin walks Lofton and Francona pulls Timlin. With two on, it's now up to Olerud to keep hope alive. He'll face Embree.

Update: Sierra pinch hits for Olerud.

We're at the point where the emperor is blasting Luke with dark side lightning, and we're not sure if Vader is going to save his son or not.

Actually, we all know Vader is going to save Luke, but we haven't seen it happen.

Update: Nixon just scored the 10th run. That's Han blowing the shield generator.

Update: Rivera is in to face Damon.

Update: Rivera gets Damon. Come on Darth, save Luke!

The Red Sox get the first two batters on against Tom Gordon. The Yankees can't afford to give up any more runs here, and Rivera is up in the pen.

Timlin starts the 8th against Jeter. The crowd is still loud, and the count is 3-0.

Update: Jeter takes the first five pitches to go 3-2, then grounds out to Mueller. A great play by the third and first basemen on the play.

Update: Yankees are approaching Timlin right. They're taking pitches, trying to get on base. They should have done this against Schilling last night.

Update: A-Rod strikes out. At least they finally have the process right.

Update: Sheffield grounds out to short. The Red Sox need just three more outs. The Yankees need six runs. To the ninth!

Mark Bellhorn gets one back as he bangs a HR off the right field foul pole. Tom Gordon gives back a hard earned run.

Update: Gordon gets out of the inning with no more damage. The Yankees need three runs an inning just to tie.

Just saw Pedro walking in from the bullpen, and he's listed in the box score. I don't like this move at all. Yes, Pedro is the best pitcher on the team, but he has to be a bit fatigued. Don't you want to have him in top form for the 1st game of the World Series? Even if Lowe gets in trouble, you have plenty of time to get someone warm.

If this backfires, Francona will find himself in Grady Little's company.

Update: Matsui rips a double off Pedro. The "Who's your daddy?"chants are back. The crowd is back into it. I don't like this at all.

Update: Bernie Williams doubles to deep center! It's 8-2. The Sox better get Pedro out of there now.

Update: Posada grounds out to Man-cave-ich, moving Bernie to third. Pedro coming in has electrified this crowd. Lofton lines the first pitch back up the middle for a hit and another run. It's 8-3. And here comes Olerud!

Update: Lofton steals second. It's still too risky down five runs.

Update: Olerud strikes out on a fast ball just off the plate. Here's Miguel Cairo's chance to be a hero.

Update: Cairo gets good wood on the ball, but flies out into the right field corner to Nixon. But Pedro got the crowd back into it, and a team that couldn't hit Lowe hit Pedro hard. Stay tuned.

With two on, Heredia is being brought in to pitch to Damon. Here's a big chance for Johnny to equal Reggie Jackson' three in a game feat.

Update: Damon grounds into a double play, but I thought the runner was safe at second (the neighborhood play) and safe at first (Damon beat it out). Stretch time. We'll see if Lowe is replaced.

Lowe gets Jeter and A-Rod to ground out to short, then strikes out Sheffield. Looks like D. Lowe is driving the nails into the coffin all by himself.

Update: The TV announcers are talking about Lowe being relieved and Pedro coming into the game. Lowe has only thrown 69 pitches! Why fix something that's not broken? I hope the announcers are wrong.

Esteban Loaiza is getting the job done. 2 2/3 Scoreless innings so far. Can the offense get to Lowe?

And Lowe is through the 5th with another perfect inning. The Red Sox need only 12 more outs. They can even pitch badly in those 12 outs and still win the game.

Maybe the Red Sox should just let Lowe pitch when the season's on the line from now on.

Someone finally gets Damon to hit the ball to an infielder and Loaiza screws up the run down. Instead of a man at first oand 2 out, there's men on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. Bellhorn up, Manny to follow.

Update: Bellhorn pops to Jeter. I doubt they'll walk Manny to face Ortiz.

Update: Manny hits it hard but right at Jeter. The coffin remains unsealed.

A perfect inning for Lowe. He'll now have the weak bottom of the Yankees order in the 5th.

Derek has only thrown 49 pitches; 12 per inning. He can go eight innings at that rate. This is a real embarassment for the Yankees offense. They couldn't hit a hobbled Schilling last night, and they can't even drive Lowe's pitch count up tonight. This is not the Yankees offense that's been so deadly for so long.

Damon just hit his 2nd HR of the game. It was bad enough that Vazquez walked Cabrera, but giving up a 2nd HR to Damon is a killer. Now he walks Bellhorn, and the Yankees need another pitcher.

Red Sox fans, I think you're going to win this.

Update: Vazquez can't get Cabrera, Damon or Bellhorn, but he gets Manny to pop out. Go figure. At least Javier has a great Scrabble name.

Update: Vazquez walks Ortiz (that's better than allowing a HR). That's it, they're going to the big gun, Esteban Loaiza! That should instill a lot of confidence in the NY fans! :-)

Update: Varitek hits a rocket off Cairo. Miguel looked like Horace Clarke on that play.

Update: Loaiza gets out of the inning with no more damage. Seven runs is a big deficit to overcome, especially when it's not likely that your pitching is going to shut down the opposition for the rest of the game.

Down 6-0, Miguel Cairo steals a base. What are the Yankees thinking? They can't afford to lose a baserunner at this point!

Luckily, he picked a good pitch to run on, and Jeter follows with a single to drive him in (Manny not being able to pick up the ball helps). Jeter on first, 1 out. Time for the big hitters to earn their pay.

Update: A-Rod manages a weak bouncer to the pitcher. At least he moved the runner! Is that a productive out?

Update: Sheffield at least hits a bullet, but it's right at Mueller. To the 4th, with the Red Sox up 6-1.

I remember the Red Sox being 1 out from a World Series victory in 1986. I remember calling a friend who was a big Red Sox fan and saying, "It looks like they're actually going to win!" Boston fans, now is not the time to think, "We're going to win!" It's much safer to assume you're going to lose tonight.

Brown gets the first batter in the inning, but Millar gets another single on a hard-hit ball. Mueller gets ahead 3-0, then draws a 3-1 walk. Vazquez is up in the bullpen. They're not going to wait for Brown to blow up.

Update: Brown walks Cabrera to load the bases with 1 out. That's just terrible, and Vazquez is coming into the game. The Red Sox have a chance to win this game here in the 2nd inning.

Update: Can't you just see Vazquez allowing a grand slam here?

Update: I really did write the above before Damon hit the homer. Unbelievable. The Red Sox are up 6-0. And in the 2nd innings, things look very bleak for the Yankees.

Derek has an easy 1st, getting the side 1-2-3, including a strikeout of Sheffield. The three righties at the top of the Yankees order just look off at the plate. Even when they make contact, they're not hitting the ball hard.

Johnny Damon leads off with a single. Watching A-Rod in this series, I'm less impressed with his defense than I was during the regular season. He dove but couldn't catch the Damon shot.

Update: Damon steals, but Bellhorn, back at the top of the order, strikes out.

Update: Bad fielding, good throw. Ramirez hits a hard grounder that goes under Jeter's glove. (Shades of 2002 vs. Anaheim.) But Matsui comes up with the ball relays to Jeter, and Jeter makes a perfect throw to nail Damon at the plate.

However, Ortiz comes up and hits a 2-run homer to give Boston the early lead. He's been amazing. The Yankees have controled Ramirez. Manny has 9 hits, but 8 of them are singles. Meanwhile, Ortiz has picked up the slack and kept Boston in this series.

Update: Brown gets Varitek to ground out to end the inning. He had three hard hit balls off him, which is not a good sign. And his team is in a hole. The Yankees have to hope the horrible Derek Lowe is showing up tonight.

There's no tomorrow.

Their backs are against the wall.

It's do or die.

Winner take all.

The Red Sox and Yankees are ready to go.

Dan Miceli is on in relief, and he walks Pujols to start the inning.

Update: Rolen gives the Astros a gift. After a four pitch walk, he swings at the first pitch and fouls out to the catcher.

However, Edmonds sends a ball over the fence in right-center to win the game for the Cardinals! The middle of the order comes through again! Game 7 tomorrow.

The Astros just ran out of pitchers. I really wonder if it wouldn't have been better to trot out Ligde for one more inning.

Anderson takes over at 2nd. Beltran up.

Update: Beltran grounds out to Pujols.

Update: Bagwell pops out to the catcher in foul territory. Two pitches, two out for Tavarez. Backe is pinch hitting for Lidge. He's a former outfielder.

Update: Backe runs the count to 3-2, then strikes out. At least he made Tavarez work. Pujols up next in the bottom of the inning.

Lidge is on for a third inning. He's only thrown 19 pitches so far, however.

Update: Taguchi strikes out to stat the 11th.

Update: Marlon Anderson pinch hits for Luna.

Update: Anderson flies to left. Walker tries to keep the inning going.

Update: Walker strikes out. If this game doesn't end soon, I won't be able to see the end.

Tavarez gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the 11th. If they can make it to the 12th, Beltran and Bagwell will be up.

Julian Tavarez and his broken hand are now in the game.

Isringhausen has an easy 1-2-3 top of the tenth. The bottom of the order is up for St. Louis.

Update: Lidge also has an easy inning, getting the Cards 1-2-3. On to the 11th!

Interesting double switch. Lane takes over for Berkman in right. If this game does deep into extra innings, the Astros may miss Berkman's bat.

Update: Lidge gets Pujols to ground out to short. Now he's facing Rolen.

Update: Rolen Ks. Edmonds next.

Update: Lidge strikesout Rolen. He has 11 K in this LCS, setting a record for a reliever, according to Fox.

Dan Wheeler does another great job, keeping the Cardinals scoreles for two innings. The 8-9-1 hitters will be up for the Astros in the 9th. One has to get on base to give Beltran a chance to bat.

Update: Ensberg pinch hits and leads off in the 9th.

Update: Morgan gets hit with a pitch with two strikes on him. Leadoff man on for the Astros. Eric Brunlett pinch hits now.

Update: Bruntlett drops down a nice bunt, putting Ensberg on 2nd for Biggio.

Update: Biggio gets good wood on the ball, but hits a fly to left. Two outs, man on 2nd, Beltran up. Walk or pitch to him?

Update: They are walking Beltran. It's up to Bagwell.

Update: I'm not sure I like this. If Beltran hits a homer, you're down by 1. If Bagwell homers, you're down by 2.

Update: Jeff Bagwell lines the first pitch into left for an RBI single! The score is tied at 4. Lance Berkman up.

Update: Double steal! They're not walking Berkman.

Update: Berkman strikes out. The Astros get to Isringhausen again. Lidge is coming on to try to keep the game tied. Pujols will lead off in the 9th. He needs a triple for the cycle, and a homer wins the game.

Jason Isringhausen comes in to pitch the 8th. He did fine in the first inning yesterday; it was in the 9th he got hit. Cardinals pitchers have only 1 strikeout this game.

Update: Kent gets a double off Jason. That's two extra-base hits in a row for Kent off the closer.

Update: Isringhausen gets out of the inning. The Cardinals are three outs away from game 7.

Looks like I didn't miss much. It's still 4-3 in the 7th. Both bullpens are doing a good job. Neither has allowed a run yet. The Astros pen has five K in 3 2/3 innings.

Update: Beltran hits the same liner he hit in the third, and once again Walker is in perfect position to hold him to a single.

Update: Bagwell flies out to Walker to end the inning this time.

Morris gets Beltran, Bagwell and Berkman in order in the fifth. He's thrown 80 pitches through five. Looks like one or two more innings at the most for Morris.

Mike Lamb gets his 2nd hit of the NLCS, his 2nd HR. It's 4-3 in the top of the 4th, St. Louis on top. Harville is out as Everett pinch hits with Ausmus on first.

Update: Lamb giveth, and Lamb taketh away. He has a ball hit right by him by Pujols. It should have been an easy play, but he didn't get in front of the hit. That gave Albert 3/4 of the cycle. Rolen doubles, getting the same carrom that Bagwell had earlier. But Vizcaino makes a better play than the Cardinals, runs out and gets the ball and throws Pujols out at the plate. Pujols had run through his coaches stop sign.

Tony Womack has been removed from the game before the top of the fourth. Hector Luna is in defensively. Watching the replay, it looked like he hurt himself on his single. Fox is reporting lower back spasms.

With Pujols and Rolen on first and second, Edmonds hits a fly ball to left. It was deep, but it wasn't to the warning track. Pujols and Edmonds both tagged up and Biggio's throw to third wasn't close. Renteria comes through with his 2nd hit of the game to drive both in. A great example of exploiting a weakness.

Update: And it chases Munro. Harville is on to try to put out the fire.

Update: Harville gives up a double to Sanders. St. Louis is finally showing some offensive depth in the series.

Update: Harville comes back to strike out the M&M battery. It's 4-2 after three. Slugfest, anyone?

With two out, Carlos Beltran hits a line drive off the wall in right. Larry Walker is positioned perfectly, and with his great arm holds Beltran to a single.

Then Bagwell hits a grounder past the third baseman which hits the wall in foul territory and takes a perpendicular bounce past the charging Reggie Sanders. Beltran comes around to score from first. It's 2-2 in the 3rd.

Pete Munro gives up another single to Womack, but gets through the 2nd unscathed. He's throwing strikes; only 9 of his 36 pitches have been called balls.

The Astros try running on a 3-2 count, and end up in a strikeout - caught stealing double play. Munro will lead off the third if he's still pitching. :-)

With Womack at 2nd after a leadoff single, Albert Pujols pulls the ball over the left-center fence to grab the lead 2-1 for the Cardinals in the bottom of the first. It's his 4th HR of the NLCS.

Update: The Astros could be in real trouble today. Womack and Renteria both have hits. Munro gives up two more singles after the Pujols HR, but gets out of the inning with no more damage.

Biggio grounds out, but Beltran walks, steals, goes to third on a Bagwell single, then scores on a Berkman sacrifice fly. The Astros get on the board early and take a 1-0 lead in the top of the first.

The pre-game show announced that it will indeed be Kevin Brown pitching tonight for the Yankees.

Houston and St. Louis resume their series today with the Astros on the edge of their first World Series berth in their 43 year history. They'll send Pete Munro to the mound to face the Cardinals' Matt Morris. The Astros had the option of sending Clemens to the mound on short rest, or waiting until game 7. Friends I have discussed this with all agree this is the right move:

• Clemens will be well rested if he has to pitch game 7.


• If the Astros win, Clemens will be able to pitch game 1 of the World Series.

I agree. Last year, I agrued that the Marlins should have followed this strategy in the World Series. Up 1 game going into game 6, however, McKeon started Beckett in game 6 to go for the win, and it worked for him. I'm glad to see Garner following it now. If he decided to go with both Clemens and Oswalt on short rest, I don't think he would be criticized, but I believe this is more likely to work out.

That said, the Cardinals should be able to win this game. I have to believe that given enough matchups between Morris and Munro, Matt is going to come out on top most of the time. Neither has been wildly successful in the playoffs so far. Morris has given up 4 HR in 12 IP. Opponents are hitting .316 off Pete. Most of the Cardinals relievers have had a couple of days off. I don't expect either starter to last much more than five innings and once again the Cardinals are more likely to pound Houston's middle relief. Maybe the bottom of the Cardinals order can get some hits today.

The main attraction, of course, is in New York tonight. The Red Sox will start Derek Lowe. I don't know who will start for the Yankees; most likely Brown or Vazquez. Neither teams fans can be too happy with any of the choices. Lowe doesn't seem to know mediocrity; he'll either be great or terrible. As for Brown or Vazquez, Brown would be my first choice. It's not that he's so much better than Javier at this point; it's that he's a competitive bastard, and sometimes you need a player who just doesn't want to lose. You know, a Captian Kirk type:

Kirk watches Saavik.

KIRK
What's on your mind, Lieutenant?

SAAVIK
The Kobayashi Maru, sir.

DAVID
The what?

BONES
The no-win scenario -- and with
what philosophy a commander faces
defeat.

KIRK
Are you asking me if we are playing
out that scenario now, Lieutenant?

SAAVIK
On the test, sir, will you tell me
what you did? I'd really like to
know.

Kirk looks at Bones, who smiles --

BONES
Lieutenant, you are looking at the
only Starfleet cadet who ever beat
the no-win scenario --

KIRK
And almost got tossed out of the
Academy...

He looks at his watch again, using his glasses --

SAAVIK
How?

KIRK
I reprogrammed the simulation so it
was possible to rescue the ship.

SAAVIK
WHAT?

KIRK
I changed the conditions of the
test. I received a commendation for
original thinking.
(pause)
I don't like to lose.

That's what Kevin Brown would bring them tonight. Whether he'll be effective is another story. I'm guessing the final score will be 8-7. Who'll win? Hard to see, the dark side is.

The Baseball Crank has a guest correspondent, an army officer and Red Sox fan stationed in Iraq. My favorite quote from his letters:

In the bottom of the ninth, though, it was just me, SFC Nebelkopf, and Major Hayden, a Sox fan from Springfield, MA. We were the only ones still around to watch Foulke strike out Tony Clark. With the final out and assurance of a Game 7, there was at first an overwhelming feeling of joy. That was quickly put in check by a strange sense calm and accomplishment.

Sox fans are weird like that. It’s not that I’m satisfied just to get to a Game 7. And it’s not so much that I expect the Sox to blow Game 7 tonight (or early tomorrow morning, depending on which side of the International Date Line you’re sailing). But if they do, I’ll have to wonder, what if the Sox had died peacefully in my sleep on Sunday night? Wouldn’t that have been easier? Damn them for sucking me back in.

Even having had a night to sleep on it, I can't believe how the Yankees approached Schilling last night. Actually, what I can't believe is that they didn't have an approach against Schilling last night. Bunting against him would not have been a great strategy, but it would have been a strategy. This is supposed to be a smart organization with smart players. Did Torre have a conversation with the players before the game? Was there a meeting about taking pitches? About what to expect from Curt with a numb ankle? Was the strategy, "Just swing at any pitch that looks good?"

Willie Randolph was a great leadoff man. Did he bother to talk to Jeter before the game? Did he tell him that Knoblauch or Boggs or Henderson would have worked Schilling for at least five or six pitches? Jeter's job in that first AB was to see what Schilling had. He needed to keep the bat on his shoulder until he had two strikes, then only swing at pitches in the zone. He needed to let A-Rod and Sheffield see what was and wasn't working for Schilling that night. In fact, that should have been the strategy for the whole team the first time through the order.

Because Schilling didn't matter. It didn't matter if he pitched great or not. What mattered was getting him out of the game early by either hitting him hard or forcing him to throw a lot of pitches. Then maybe you pound a tired bullpen, and if nothing else, you wear them out more for game 7. But the Yankees let Schilling go 7. Foulke's arm may be pitched out, but the rest of the pen got some needed rest.

Torre and Randolph need to be asked about this. There appeared to be no grand strategy last night, and Joe needs to be held responsible for that.

Update: I was looking through my World Series archives and found this. Sound familiar?

Torre just said he hasn't decided on tomorrow's starter.

Update: Joe also just said that he might go with a piecemeal approach, letting pitchers go two or three innings each.

Baseball Tonight just explained the rule that led to Rodriguez being called out. It's not clear in the official rule book. It is in a book the umps and managers use that gives guidelines to the rules. That's why the commentors in this post can't find the specific rule.

Correction: I meant Rodriguez, not Jeter as originally posted.

Schilling is being interviewed. He said he struggled from the 4th inning on, but his mistakes were hit right at people. I think that's right. I don't Schilling was that sharp, but the Yankees just were off kilter all evening. If this Yankees team was right, they should have been able to hit him. It came down to Lieber having one bad inning, and Schilling none.

The Red Sox are the first baseball team to be down 3-0 and force a game 7. They've increase their odds of winning the pennant from 6% after Saturday's game to 50% tomorrow. Lowe will start for Boston. I'm not sure, but it looks like it will be Brown for New York. And of course, we get the Astros-Cardinals as the first feature. Should be another fun day tomorrow.

Keith Foulke is in. I'm a little surprised by this. Arroyo pitched well again. Foulke has been used a lot. He needs three outs, and the Yankees have been off balance all night.

Update: The police are off the field but close by.

Update: Matsui walks on a full count to lead off the 9th.

Update: Bernie strikes out swinging. He was fooled on a low, outside pitch. Posada's turn.

Update: Posada pops out to third, although Mueller almost loses his footing. The game is up to Sierra now.

Update: Sierra walks. Tony Clark comes to the plate. The Yankees have to wish that Olerud was healthy right now.

Update: Clark gets ahead 2-0. How can Foulke miss his strikezone?

Update: It's 3-2 now to Clark.

Update: Clark swings and misses! The Red Sox win!

Miguel Cairo gets his 2nd double of the night, after Arroyo shakes off Varitek twice. This time it was a down the right field line. Jeter follows with a single to drive in Miguel, and the heart of the Yankees order is coming up with 1 out. It's 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th.

Update: Rivera is warming up in the Yankees bullpen just in case.

Update: On a slow roller down the first base line, A-Rod knocks the ball out of Arroyo's glove. They originally called A-Rod safe, with Jeter scoring, but once again the umps get together and discuss the situation and correctly call A-Rod out. Jeter has to go back to first.

The Yankees fans are very upset and throwing things on the field. It's very clear in slow motion as to what happened, but it looked like an error when I saw it in real time.

Update: Kudos to the umpries tonight for working as a team to get the calls right. I'd like to see that more often.

Update: Sheffield pops up to end the inning. The Red Sox are 3 outs away from game 7.

With one out in the 8th Manny Ramirez singles and Felix Heredia is summoned to pitch to Ortiz.

Update: Heredia gets David Ortiz to fly out. The Red Sox send Kapler to the plate, and the Yankees counter with Quantrill. We'll see if his knee is better.

Update: Kapler gets a single, but Millar grounds out to short. Schilling is out, Arroyo is in.

Schilling pitched an amazing game. I think any one who goes on the DL in the future should be considered a sissy. :-) Schilling didn't have his strikeout pitch, but he threw strikes (67 of 99 pitches). He pitched a Lieber like game, and he did it better than Jon tonight.

The Yankees approach was poor. Early in the game they were not patient enough. The first time through the order they should have been taking as many pitches as possible to make Schilling work. Instead, they gave him two easy innings to start the game, and Curt settled in after that.

Can the Yankees get to Arroyo?

Bernie Williams gets the Yankees on the board in the 7th with a shot into the right field stands. It's 4-1 in the 7th, and there's action in the Red Sox bullpen.

Update: Schilling gets out of the 7th with no more damage, striking out Sierra for the third time to end the inning.

Jon Lieber retires the Sox 1-2-3 in the 7th. He's been perfect since the fourth. He's keeping the team in the game; the offense needs to support him now.

Schilling gets the top of the order 1-2-3 in the the 6th. He's pitched very well tonight, not issuing a walk. The Yankees are getting the bat on the ball, but they're not hitting it hard. It's much better than I expected Schilling to be. Whatever they injected into his foot, it's working well enough. This outing is exactly what the Red Sox needed. Schilling is not only winning the game, he's resting the bullpen for tomorrow.

The wind is really being rough on the fielders tonight. There have been a number of balls caught where the outfielders looked like they got a bad jump. Sierra hit a foul pop that Varitek and Mueller dropped, and both looked confused. Varitek over-ran the ball, forcing Mueller to hold up and just miss catching it. Sierra, however, strikes out for the 2nd time.

Update: 1-2-3 for Schilling, including two strikeouts. He's staying strong.

A-Rod gets a solid single to lead off the 4th, Sheffield gets a lucky single that rolls and hits third to put two on for the Yankees. Matsui hits the first pitch and pops out.

Update: Bernie just got a hold of one that just went foul. My daughter and I are both wondering if the wind helped it foul.

Update: Bernie grounds out to Millar, Schilling covering. Looks like he was able to get there oaky. Men on 2nd and 3rd with two out.

Update: Posada also grounds out to Millar, unassisted. Schilling ran to first, but was visibly limping when he let up. Again, the Yankees are getting the bat on the ball. Curt's only thrown 54 pitches, but those two runs to first probably took more out of his foot that all that pushing off the rubber.

Lieber has gotten into trouble with 2 out in the 4th. Millar doubles and moves to third on a wild pitch. Varitek has a great AB, falling behind in the count, but fouling off pitches, working the count to 3-2, then lining a single to center to give Boston a 1-0 lead. Cabrera follows with a single of his own.

Update: Bellhorn appears to double off the left field wall, but the replay shows it's a three-run homer. Matsui's reaction indicated home run. The umps are discussing it. At worst, the Sox are up 3-0.

Update: The umps talk it over and reverse the call. It's a HR and the Sox are up 4-0. A big blow for Belhorn.

Update: Lieber gets Damon to fly out to end the inning. Varitek's AB should be held up as the pivotal moment in the game. Lieber should have had him, but he battled and battled and got the solid hit for the lead.

Schilling gets Sierra to strike out, his first K of the game. Looks like his splitter is working.

Update: Cairo gets the first hit of the night, a ground rule double to the deepest part of Yankee Stadium, left center.

Update: Jeter flies out to center to end the inning. Once again, Jeter isn't very selective at the plate, swinging at ball two before popping out.

Lieber gives up a leadoff single to Damon, but Mueller grounds into a double play. Lieber has gotten the ground ball outs when he's needed them this evening. He's thrown 50 pitches through three innings, 33 for strikes.

With two out in the 2nd, Posada launches a ball that looked like a home run, but the strong wind kept it in the park, as Nixon catches it at the wall. Schilling has retired six in a row and has only thrown 23 pitches.

The only problem is that he hasn't struck anyone out. The Yankees are getting the bat on the ball. Schilling is a strikeout pitcher, and if he keeps letting the Yankees put the ball in play, eventually they will fall in for hits.

It's Boston that uses the bunt to get a hit. With Millar on first, Varitek lays one down the third base line. On a play that Nettles would have made easily, A-Rod could not get a good grip on the wet ball, and the Red Sox have men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Cabrera lines a single to left. Millar couldn't get a jump due to the ball in the air, so the bases are loaded for Bellhorn.

Update: Lieber gets Bellhorn to ground into a 4-6-3 double play. Top of the order will be up for the Sox in the third.

The weather at the stadium is awful. There is a misty rain falling. You can see it blowing in the breeze. It's a miserable night, the kind that is just going to wear on the players in the field. Just how many hurdles can be thrown in front of Curt?

Update: Jeter doesn't bunt, but swings at the first pitch and flies out. Why? You have to make Schilling work in this game. Jeter should have made Schilling throw at least three pitches just to show everyone what Curt has.

Update: Schilling gets the Yankees 1-2-3 in the first. It looks like he has his velocity back, although a couple of pitches to Rodriguez looked like they were out of control. But he only threw 11 pitches, which is just what the Red Sox need.

Bill Mueller will be batting 2nd tonight, with Cabrera 8th and Bellhorn 9th. Mueller is 15 for 31 vs. Lieber career. The Sox must believe that's for real. Also, Fox just showed Curt in the bullpen, and it appears he's not wearing the special shoe.

Update: Game underway, Lieber gets ahead 0-2 on Damon.

Update: Lieber goes 3-2 to Damon, then strikes him out looking.

Update: Lieber gets hit in the leg. Manny up.

Update: A hard grounder to Clark, and Ortiz is out. Lieber has a relatively easy first.

Update: Manny breaks his bat and flies out to right. Now Ortiz is up with a man on base, and he's getting booed.

Looks like it's not a problem if the game gets rained out tonight. There's another way to settle the series. :-)

It's one thing to use unconventional means to get to Curt Schilling, but how are the Red Sox going to approach Jon Lieber?

In Game 2, Lieber took advantage of the aggressiveness of Boston hitters, especially early in counts. He was consistently putting his first pitches on the corners - or maybe slightly off - and the Red Sox hitters were chasing them.

``Those guys are aggressive and he took advantage of it,'' Posada said. ``He knows what to do. He was able to put the ball where he wanted to.''

After the game, the Sox said they swung at the ``pitcher's pitch'' instead of waiting for a ball they could drive.

``I hoped they'd get themselves out early in the count,'' Lieber said.

How do you go after a pitcher who doesn't walk anyone? The Sox tried to focus on early pitches. But if those are taken for strikes, the Sox batters will be in a hole. They need to hope that Lieber is off tonight, and those early pitches are called balls. If not, they'll have to go back to being aggressive early in the count, and hope they have more luck than they did in game 2.

The Columbia-Union blog points to a strategy the Yankees are thinking of employing against Schilling:

According to ESPN Radio this morning, the Yankees are allegedly planning to bunt, over and over again, in an effort to make the hobbled Curt Schilling field balls on wet grass, and cover first.

With Schilling's ankle already tenuous at best (he'll be wearing a special sneaker-boot designed to keep his tendon from snapping against bone), this is a devious plan worthy of Snidely Whiplash, Darth Vader, or name your favorite villain.

The author believes this is an unsportsman like plan.

Just because the Spankees have been rocked and shocked for two games by the resurgent Ortiz, Foulke & Co. is no excuse to promote injuries.

It's just unsportsmanlike, from a team which is always claiming it has more "class" than others.

For some reason, I thought the point of playing professional baseball games is to win. Every game offers a different set of opponents strengths to overcome and weaknesses to exploit. Schilling's injury is a weakness to exploit, and the Yankees would be derelict in their duty to win if they didn't try to use it against Curt. Now I think they should just wait to see if all Schilling can throw is the slow, straight stuff, because it's better to cream those pitches than lay down a lot of bunts. But the strategy of taking advantage of Schilling's immobility is perfectly reasonable. There's no free pass here.

I was talking with Jim Storer earlier today, who had a very similar injury. (His was worse, since a bone fragment broke off with the tendon.) Jim told me the weather shouldn't bother him (the weather bothers Jim now that he's had the ankle surgicially repaired). But slipping will bother him; slipping off the rubber when he tries to push off, and slipping on wet grass when he tries to field a ball. Given that, the Yankees strategy of bunting is absolutely the right way to go. They need to get Schilling out of the game early and pound a depleted bullpen.

Remember, the Yankees have a different goal than the Red Sox. New York needs to win one game out of two. The more they can tire out Red Sox pitching, the more likely they are to win one of the two. If Schilling can't push off tonight, they'll just blast him, and he'll be out of the game early. If he can push off and be effective, they'll bunt and take advantage of the injury. That's the right way to play the game.

And finally, why is it okay to get injections of a numbing agent before and during a game? Isn't that a performance enhancing drug? As someone who isn't outraged by steroid use, I don't really care. But I wonder why I've heard none of the Bonds/Sheffield critics complain about Schillings shots? How come that's not cheating? It's very likely that Curt's injury is worse for pitching through the pain all these months. Isn't that partly why people object to steroids, the long term damage they do? No, if Schilling gets a shot to pitch through an injury, the Yankees have every right to take advantage of that same problem.

It seems a lot of fair weather fans are jumping on the Houston bandwagon. They're more than welcome there.

From declines in workplace productivity on game days, to specials at Church's Chicken, Astros mania has ensnared the masses.

"It's so amazing — I'm the biggest Astros fan in the world," said JoAnna Garcia, 20, of Baytown, after Houston's 3-0 win over St. Louis Monday night. "We're going all the way. We believe. We're so proud. We're going to the World Series."

Unlike their counterparts in some cities, longtime fans aren't complaining about the "Johnny-and Jilly-come-latelies." In fact, they're doing the opposite.

"I'm OK with that," said Rob Turlak, 48. "You are going to have them in any sport. The more the merrier."

I love the decline in workplace productivity line. That harkens back to the old days when the World Series was played in day light and people at work and in school gathered around the radio to listen to the game.

I'm still waiting for Lisa Gray to report on the game. (Update: Here it is).

Meanwhile, Cardinals fans are in pain. Brian has criticism for La Russa as well:

As for Tony La Russa, like yesterday I admired two of his moves and disagreed strongly with a third. The good moves were (1) pinch-hitting John Mabry in the 8th (it took Woody out of the game, but you need to score runs before you can even think about winning), and (2) bringing in Izzy in a tie game in the 8th (finally, I thought, La Russa is learning exactly how to run his bullpen).

But the move that cost him -- and cost him dearly -- was walking Berkman intentionally to bring up Kent. I don't say this in hindsight either. I thought it was a bad move at the time; I think it's a bad move now. Consider: after Beltran stole a base and moved into scoring position (big surprise, huh?), the Cards faced one out, runner on second, and -- this is key -- two strikes on Lance Berkman. It was a 2-2 count and yet La Russa walked him anyway.

Check out the stats he uses to back this up at his site.

Finally, a look at the best vs. depth issue:

Batting Average	Cardinals	Astros
Big 4 (2-5 hitters)	.347	.333
Others	.126	.185

Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman and Kent have been able to keep up with Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds. The Astros have gotten relatively better production from the rest of their lineup.

Bambino's Curse and Bronx Banter are both quoting Annie Hall in light of last night's game.

Thomas Boswell does a good job of capturing the ALCS so far. It's either going to be the greatest comeback in baseball history or another buildup and let down for the Boston fans.

I thought this was interesting:

However, the event in baseball that has the most impact from one game to the next, which leads to streaks and slumps more often than should be statistically predictable, is the blown save. Back-to-back blown pennant saves have never happened before. So how can we know how the odds of this series have just been skewed? But in baseball, some psychological events have real statistical implications.

In other words, if a team were going to do something that hasn't happened in 101 years, then winning two games in one day after a pair of blown Rivera saves would be the kind of almost unimaginable event that might ignite it.

Interesting, and baloney. The Red Sox were drubbed on Saturday night. The Yankees took them apart bit by bit and ground them into dust. How could a team that was so badly beaten, that had it's two great starters outpitched in games 1 and 2, then mauled at home ever come back to win game 4? We know now.

And we know that the Yankees are not going to play dead because they lost two close games in Fenway Park. These are two incredibly competitive teams. They're tired, yes, but both are sure they can win this game tonight. There's no hand wringing. There's no worrying. (Well, maybe the GMs.)

And there's no relievers. If one of the starters gets in trouble early, I'm not sure how either side plays it. The Yankees, of course, can afford to save their staff for game 7. The Red Sox can't. They are sending Schilling to the mound with a high top sneaker his main support. My good friend Jim Storer had the same injury as Schilling, and he told me the other day just how painful it was. I would suspect that on a cold, damp night it's going to be even worse. Arroyo went an inning last night; either he or Lowe is likely to be the long man if Curt breaks down early.

If Schilling guts it out and pitches well, his performance will go along side Gibson's 1988 HR off Eckersley as one of the most heroic moments in the game. It will be another unlikely performance in an ALCS which has had nothing but unlikely performances.

And all this just to set up Miguel Cairo to be the hero in game 7. How else could this end?

(Hat tip to Soccer Dad on the Boswell article.)

Beltran (who made a great catch earlier), gets only the third hit of the night leading off the 9th. He's on first for Bagwell.

Update: Bagwell hits a foul fly that hits the roof, so the Cards can't catch it. He stays alive on the ceiling shot.

Update: Bagwell flies out to Edmonds in right-center.

Update: Beltran steals 2nd with no throw. He's perfect stealing since coming to the Astros.

Update: With first open, they walk Berkman to pitch to Kent. Kent hits the first pitch for a three-run homer over everything in left! Astros go up 3-2!

This is turning out to be like the 1987 World Series, where the Cardinals won 1 & 2 at home, lost three in a dome, then came home to take the series, winning games six and seven. What a night for baseball! see correction.

Correction: This is what happens when I don't enough sleep. The 1987 World Series was the opposite of what I wrote above. St. Louis lost two in the dome, won three at home, then lost the last two in the dome. So the only thing in common there is the dome losses and the home victories.

Lidge gets Womack to ground out, then K's Walker and Pujols. The Astros staff more than did it's job tonight. Time for the hitters to come through.

Luckily, I haven't missed anything in the NLCS tonight. Still one hit for each team through 8. Lidge is on to pitch the 9th after Backe gave then 8 fantastic innings, 1 hit, 2 walks, 4 K. Williams did a wonderful job as well, going seven 1 hit innings and passing the game to Isringhausen.

Bellhorn K's to start the 14th for the Red Sox.

Update: Damon walks. That may give Manny a chance to bat this inning.

Update: Cabrera strikes out. Here comes Manny with two out. Do you walk Manny and Ortiz to pitch to Mientkiewicz?

Update: Manny walks on a three-two count. Winning run on 2nd for Ortiz.

Update: Ortiz falls behind 1-2.

Update: Ortiz wins it again! A bloop single to center sends the series back to New York! What a game, the best since the Mets-Astros game 6 in 1986.

And they managed to finish before the Cards and Astros! David Ortiz has cemented himself in Boston Red Sox lore. He may end up bigger than Carlton Fisk and Dave Henderson combined.

Wakefield gets the Yankees 1-2-3 in the 14th. It's been two hours since the NL game started, and neither team has scored. Backe and Williams have dueling one-hitters going. It may be November before we see a run!

They've gone five innings without scoring in Boston, and in the same time they've gone close to six without scoring in Houston. Did someone turn off the run machine?

Kapler lines out to Loaiza to start the inning.

Update: Varitek grounds out to short.

Update: Mueller flies out to shallow left, and there's almost a collision between Matsui and Jeter.

The Red Sox must be really tired if they can't score off Loaiza. :-)

Backe loses the no-hitter to a single by Womack. Still no score in the top of the 6th.

Sheffield strikes out, but Varitek can't handle the pitch, and Sheffield reaches on the passed ball.

Update: Sheffield is out on a Matsui fielder's choice. Man on first for Williams.

Update: With two out, another ball gets by Varitek, allowing Matsui to reach 2nd. Posada is walked with first open, and Wakefield will face Sierra.

Update: Another passed ball by Varitek. Mirabelli usually catches Wakefield. 2-2 to Sierra.

Update: Wakefield strikes out Sierra swinging! If Tim is goig to be in there for the duration, the Sox may want to think about putting Mirabelli in behind the plate.

A 13 inning game on one channel, and no-hitter on the other, how could anyone be watching Monday Night Football this evening?

Manny's up against Loaiza. He takes ball one.

Update: Manny pops up to third. Ortiz gets to swing against Esteban.

Update: Ortiz walks on a pitch that looked too close to take. Good eye by Ortiz. Again, the early pinch-running comes back to haunt the Sox as two weak hitter follow Ortiz, and they're not pinch running for Ortiz now.

Update: Ortiz tries to steal. It was a bad throw, a high tag, and he still was out. I think he was safe, but it was a stupid move. Any kind of a good throw, and he's out by a mile. I wonder if Mientkiewicz missed the hit and run?

Mientkiewicz strikes out. On to the Baker's Dozen.

Edmonds walks to end the perfect game. Still no score in the top of the 5th.

Tim Wakefield comes out for the 12th. I think he's in for the duration, as Loaiza may be. The Yankees better score here; I can't see Estaban getting the heart of the Red Sox order without allowing a run.

Update: After getting Clark, Cairo hits a single to Manny that gets by the leftfielder, and Miguel winds up at 2nd. Cairo, once again, may play the role of lousy hitting 2nd baseman who is a post-season hero for the Yankees.

Jeter lines out to Kapler in right. Kapler had him played perfectly.

Update: Manny gets off the hook as A-Rod flies out to center on the first pitch. He'll try to win the game leading off in the bottom of the 12th.

Mueller drops one between Sheffield and Cairo to lead off the 12th with a single. Sheffield's defense, which I thought was pretty good during the season, has left something to be desired tonight.

Update: Man, if you are going to have as bad a series as Bellhorn is having, you should at least be able to get a bunt down. Mark fouls off the first two trying to sacrifice.

Update: Bellhorn singles after failing to bunt. Maybe he should have been swinging to begin with. :-)

Update: Damon tries to lay down the bunt, but he pops out to Posada! The announcers think Posada should have let it drop for a DP, but I'm one of those who thinks, take the sure out.

Quantrill is injured somehow, and Loaiza is coming out of the pen. He'll face Cabrera and Manny, unless he can get a DP. Men on 1st and 2nd, 1 out.

Update: Loaiza gets the DP! We're going to the dozenth inning for the 2nd night in a row!

Backe has retired 12 in a row. The NLCS game may end before the ALCS game does.

The Red Sox burn another lefty, bringing in Embree to face Bernie Williams. I'm not sure this is such a good idea, giving Bernie and Posada an easier shot at the wall.

Update: Bernie goes the other way and singles to right-center.

Update: Posada strikes out. Now Sierra gets a shot at the wall.

Update: Sierra strikes out! A great job by Embree. I keep wondering if we're going to see Schilling for a batter if it's a game situation.

A real pitcher's duel in the NLCS tonight. Backe has retired the first nine batters, and Williams has only allowed a single and a walk. It's 0-0 after three. However, the Astros are working Williams, forcing him to throw 45 pitches so far, while Backe has only thrown 29.

The Red Sox bring in Mike Myers for the 11th. I don't quite understand this. Why not let Arroyo pitch until he drops? There's no telling how long this game will go. Eventually, you'll have to put Wakefield in there forever.

Ortiz up, Heredia on the mound. I doubt Felix will be in for more than one batter.

Update: Heredia strikes out Ortiz on a check swing. I think the third base ump was making up for the lousy call by the first base ump in the last inning. Heredia staying in to face Man-cave-ich.

Update: Mientkiewicz lines one into deep right. Sheffield either didn't see it well or just miss played it, and it bounces into the stands for a double. That's it for Heredia, as he does half his job. Quantrill is in to face Kapler. The pinch runner may hurt the Sox here, as Gabe is a weak hitter compared to Nixon.

Update: Quantrill gets Kapler to ground out to 2nd. Man on third, two out, Mueller on deck. Pick your poison.

Update: This one goes to eleven as Varitek pops out to Jeter.

Bronson Arroyo comes on in the tenth, and the results are much different than Saturday night. He gets Jeter to pop out, then K's A-Rod and Sheffield. To the bottom of the tenth, and David Ortiz can be the hero against the NY Goliath.

Brandon Backe is treating the good and the bad in the St. Louis order the same tonight. It's six up, six down, with three strikeouts, including Walker and Rolen. Twenty-one pitches through two innings.

Woody Williams gives up a hit in the first but only throws nine pitches. Both starters know they have to go deep into the game tonight.

Rivera is still in the game, facing the top of the order. Damon gets a broken bat infield single to start the inning. Sometimes it's good not to hit the ball hard.

Update: Damon is caught stealing! Cabrera had squared to bunt, but pulled back. Don't know if that was a sac hit and run or Damon decided to run on his own. The dark side of one-run strategies. Cabrera grounds out, it's up to Manny.

Update: Manny flies out to center after a gift check swing call. Once agian, to extra innings!

The Cardinals-Astros game is underway. Backe gets the side in order in the top of the first, throwing only 10 pitches. That's exactly what the Astros need tonight.

Ruben Sierra reaches for the fifth time tonight. With two outs, Tony Clark, who hasn't come close to reaching base will try to extend the inning.

Update: Clark is so big it's hard for any ball over the plate not to be a strike.

Update: Clark hits a fly down the line in right that bounces into the stands for a double. If it stays fair, Sierra scores with two outs.

Update: Cairo is up. Don't they have a pinch hitter? He pops up foul to the first baseman to end the threat.

This last AB by Nixon was a great example of why pitchers shouldn't concern themselves with baserunners. With Roberts at first, obviously trying to steal, Gordon kept throwing over and stepping off and holding the ball. By the time he tried pitching to Nixon, he ended up falling behind 3-1. That's the pitch Roberts chose to run on, and Nixon got a great pitch to hit, which he lined for a single. Now there are runners on first and third with no outs, and Rivera has to pitch a two inning save again.

The great ones didn't worry about runners. They knew if they got the batter out, nothing too bad would happen.

Update: Varitek hits a sac fly to center to tie the game. Mariano blows the tough save opportunity.

Update: Rivera gets the three batters he faces. He could be perfect tonight and still be stuck with the blown save.

David Ortiz homers to start the 8th inning. The failure of the Red Sox leadoff men to get on in this series keeps Manny and Ortiz from doing a lot of damage. It's 4-3 as Gordon walks Millar to put the tying run on base, and like last night, Roberts will pinch run.

Mark Bellhorn leads off the bottom of the 7th with a double, and that will be it for Mike Mussina. Bellhorn has had a tough series, so it's nice to see him get a big hit.

Update: After getting Damon to pop out, Sturtze walks Cabrera to bring Manny Ramirez to the plate as the go-ahead run. Sturtze will not face Ramirez.

Update: Gordon comes in and gets Ramirez to ground into a double play. Manny only has 1 extra-base hit in the ALCS.

Fox just announced that Julian Tavarez broke two bones in his left hand. That makes the Cardinal bullpen a little less deep. With the injury to Kline, a Cardinal strength is turning into a weakness.

Pedro just hit Cairo with two out to load the bases for Jeter. Martinez is just about at 100 pitches. Jeter's looked bad at the plate all game, 0 for 3 with 2 K.

Update: On exactly the 100th pitch of the game, Jeter gets a base hit just down the right field line to clear the bases and give the Yankees a 4-2 lead. They give Jeter credit for a double, and he's on third on the throw home. Cairo had a great slide to score the third run.

A-Rod is hit by a pitch. Pedro is losing it here, and so are the Red Sox.

After five innings, the starters are both bending but not breaking. They get men on, but they get out of the inning. Both have thrown a lot of pitches, however; Pedro is at 82, Mussina is at 84. How much longer before we see a break down?

After three, Mussina and Pedro aren't that far apart. Moose has given up 1 more hit and struck out 1 more batter. Both have walked two, but Pedro's given up a HR. Both of these pitchers are doing well, but not great. And both are throwing a good number of pitches.

Pedro is making Jeter look bad this evening. He's struck him out twice now, and Jeter hasn't come close to looking good on a pitch.

Update: Jeter makes an error in the bottom of the third. I haven't had much to complain about this year with Jeter's defense, but you see a play like that and you have to wonder how long he'll stay at this important defensive position.

Mussina gets the Sox 1-2-3 in the 2nd. He'll have Manny leading of in the 3rd, again limiting the damage Mr. Ramirez can do.

Bernie Williams leads off the 2nd inning by hitting the first pitch down the right field line for a homer. Matsui ended the 1st by taking Pedro's first pitch to the wall in right center. Maybe that's the way to get Pedro; take that first pitch deep.

Mussina does not have it this afternoon. He's given up three hits, a walk and one run so far. He has the bases loaded with only 1 out in the bottom of the first.

Meanwhile, apart from the five pitch walk to A-Rod, Martinez looked very good, getting both Jeter and Sheffield to strikeout on three pitches.

Update: Varitek has decided to bat from the right side against Mussina today. He's up with the bases loaded with two out.

Update: Mussina finally gets out of the inning, striking out Mueller. He threw 34 pitches.
Update: It works. Varitek draws a walk to push the 2nd run of the inning across.

Kudos to the Red Sox for not giving up yesterday. After the drubbing they took on Saturday, and after seeing their lead yesterday disappear in minutes on balls a that couldn't get out of the infield, they perservered. I got the feeling the Boston fans were on the verge of saying, "Why did we root for this team so much? Why did we let ourselves be fooled again?" Even if they don't go on to win the ALCS, last night redeemed the team's image.

It's the M&M matchup today in Boston as Mike Mussina takes the mound against Pedro Martinez. Since we all now know the answer to the question, "Who's your daddy?" one might expect a Yankees victory this afternoon. Mussina is well rested, and might be the only Yankees player who is. The last two nights had to be draining to both teams, and the quick turnaround is going to leave players bleary eyed. Mussina baffled the Red Sox until the 7th in game 1. He'll need another performance like that tonight, minus the falling apart late. Martinez pitched more than well enough to win in game 2. It's also cold, which should make batting more painful.

I wonder about the status of Rivera as well. I agree that the 8th was the right inning to bring him into the game, but I wonder if the 9th couldn't have been left to someone else. It was the bottom of the order due up, and you would think Quantrill or Gordon could have handled them. Will Torre ask Rivera to go two more innings tonight?

It nice to see that Jeter remembers how to take a walk. A lot was made of his slow start this season and how his batting average recovered. But what wasn't noticed by many was the depression of his OBA as he eschewed the walk to try to get hits. He had the worst OBA of his career, but not his worst batting average. So far, in the post season he's concentrating on getting on base, and has a .390 OBA despite just hitting .265.

Game 5 of the NLCS rematches Woody Williams and Brandon Backe. (We have MM, WW and BB going tonight. Too bad Pedro's first name isn't Maurice.) Backe only lasted 4 2/3 innings in game 1, throwing the defense to the mercy of the Astros middle relief corps. At this point, Garner has to realize there are two relievers he can count on; Wheeler and Lidge. Backe needs to go at least six full tonight to give the Astros a chance. Houston has proven they can score against the Cardinals; the seemingly invincible Cardinals bullpen has been hit for a 6.23 ERA in this series.

So can Backe survive against the big four long enough to keep his team in the game? And will Williams be the first Cardinals starter to pitch better than okay? It's going to be another late night.

The Yankees don't score in the top of the inning. Manny, Oritz and Nixon to bat.

Update: Manny singles off Quantrill to start the 12th.

Update: Ortiz wins it with a HR into the bullpen in right! The Red Sox get to play again today! (I guess this doesn't count as a double header.) A long draining game for both teams, and I don't think anyone left the park.

It's only the 6th time in 26 series that a team down 3-0 did not get swept. Mussina vs. Pedro in 16 hours. All those people who didn't get to go on Friday now have a game to attend!

The Yankees get out of the 11th with the score still tied. To the 12th!

Update: Posada breaks his bat and bloops a single to right.

Update: Sierra grounds out off the pitcher, but avoids the DP and gets Posada to 2nd.

Cairo leads off with a single.

Update: Jeter bunts Cairo to 2nd. I'd let Jeter hit.

Update: A-Rod lines out. It seemed to me that Cabrera was more interested in showing the ball than seeing where the runner was. If he had spun and thrown he would have had a double play.

Sheffield walks.

Update: Myers coming on to face Matsui.

Update: Myers walks Matsui on four pitches to load the bases. Leskanic coming in to try to get Williams.

Update: Leskanic gets Williams to fly out to center. Can the Red Sox win this inning?

The Red Sox hold the Yankees scoreless in the 10th. They're up with another chance to extend the series.

Update: Gordon gets the side in order in the 10th. To the 11th!

Rivera faces Millar leading off the 9th.

Update: Millar walks to lead off the 9th.

Update: Roberts running for Millar, and he steals 2nd.

Upate: Mueller grounds a hard single up the middle! Roberts scores and the Red Sox tie the game at 4. Rivera blows the save.

Update: Mientkiewicz hits for Bellhorn and sacrifices Mueller to 2nd. Now Damon has a chance to win the game.

Update: Damon grounds to Clark, who bobbles the ball for an error. Sox now have two chances to score the run, one of them being Manny.

Update: Rivera strikes out Cabrera on three pitches. It comes down to Manny.

Update: Rivera is pitching carefully to Manny, and the count is 3-0.

Update: Rivera comes back with two strikes to run the count to 3-2.

Update: Rivera walks Manny after a foul on a pitch up and in. The season now hangs on Ortiz.

Update: Rivera gets ahead 0-2 on Ortiz.

Update: Ortiz pops up to 2nd. To extra innings! The Red Sox never make it easy on their fans.

Torre has decided the time for the save is now. Manny and Ortiz are leading off the 8th, and Ramirez singles to start the inning off Mariano Rivera.

Update: Mo strikes out O on four pitches.

Update: Tony Clark's height comes in handy at first as a chopper by Varitek would have gone over many heads. Instead, Jason is out at first, and Manny is at 2nd with 2 outs.

Update: Nixon grounds out to first as well. Rivera will have the 7-8-9 hitters in the 9th for the pennant.

Matsui triples with 1 out to chase Lowe from the game. Matsui now has 8 extra-base hits in the 4 games, and with the double and triple, half the cycle tonight.

Update: The Red Sox defense betrays them again. With the infield in, a chopper hit by Williams is hit so slowly that neither Cabrera nor Mueller can field it. This time, Matsui scores (the infield in worked in the 2nd inning). The score is tied 3-3 as the Yankees answer the challenge once again.

Update: Infield hits by Sierra and Clark score Posada and the Yankees take a 4-3 lead. It could have been 5-3 in Williams had not been thrown out trying to advance on a pitch that got away from Varitek.

Update: Timlin finally gets out of the inning by getting Jeter to ground out. It's 4-3 Yankees with Sturtze coming in to pitch.

Orlando Cabrera, batting 2nd, gets an RBI single in the 5th. It came after two walks and two outs from Hernandez. He's facing Manny now, and I suspect that Manny may be the last batter the pitching Orlando faces.

Update: Hernandez walks Ramirez to load the bases. David Ortiz up now, and the manager has not made a move yet.

Update: Ortiz comes through. A solid single scores two and gives the Red Sox a 3-2 lead.

Update: Hernandez strikes out Varitek to end the inning. So far, the Yankees offense has responded to every Red Sox challenge. Lowe has thrown 80 pitches through five, so if he throws another 18 this inning, it may be his last.
Update: Hernandez still in there. He's facing Varitek.

Alex Rodriguez draws first blood in game 4 of the Yankees-Red Sox series. He hits a two-run homer after Jeter singles off Bill Mueller. And he hit it over everything.

Earlier, I was trying to find examples of teams even partially coming back from 3-0 deficits. In looking at seven game World Series, I could only find two instances where a team won game four after losing the first three in the first ten series that went 3-0. If teams are evenly matched, they should be about 5-5 in game 4 after 3-0. This tells me one of two things:

1. The team that gets ahead 3-0 is really a superior team (or at least matches up really well against the opponent).
   
2. A 3-0 is psychologically draining on the losing team.

I tend to believe 1 more than 2. Professional athletes, in my opinion, are just too competitive to be driven down by a series of losses.

Wow. They've moved Bellhorn to the 9th spot and Cabrera to 2nd in the Red Sox order. They're ignoring long term trends in favor of short term success. Very un-Theo like.

Lidge strikes out Rolen on four pitches. (I thought he had him looking on the third pitch.) Now that's a save. We'll have mid-week baseball in St. Louis.

Once again, the big four for St. Louis goes 6 for 15, while the rest of the lineup goes 3 for 18.

Beltran is slugging 1.538 in the series. If there's ever going to be a bidding war in this age of fiscal restraint, it should be on this rising star. The Yankees need a new center fielder. The Dodgers could use a new center fielder (Finley has to get old at some point). He'd be a great player to help turn Seattle around. And do you think he might set a HR record if he played in Colorado? It will be interesting to see who does bid on him.

Womack leads off for the Cardinals in the 9th.

Update: Womack hits a screaming liner, but just to the right of Bagwell who just grabs it before it hits the ground. Now the tough part of the order.

Update: Walker walks on four pitches. I really wonder if it wouldn't have been better to leave Wheeler in for the 8th against the bottom of the order so Lidge would be fresh against the big guys.

Update: Pujols flys out to the warning track in left. One out to go. Hopefully, Fox shows it to us before switching to Boston.

Carlos Beltran continues to pad his contract for next year. He just hit his 8th HR of the post season to give the Astros a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the 7th. The Astros have Wheeler in pitching, who has been the one effective middle reliever. We'll see if Lidge goes two again tonight.

Ball four to Bagwell is over his head, and both benches have been warned now.

Update: Lidge does come on for the 8th. He's had enough rest that he probably could pitch tomorrow, too.

Update: Lidge gets the Astros 1-2-3. Not only that, it was a very easy inning. He only threw 7 pitches, all for strikes. He got a strikeout and two easy groundouts. The Cardinals should have tried to work him harder. The Cards will have the top of the order up in the 9th.

Lance Berkman just hit a solo HR leading off the 6th, showing Calero is not perfect. The Astros cut the score to 5-4. They need to stop the Cardinals for a couple of innings so they can pass.

Update: The bottom of the order comes through for the Astros. Vizcaino doubles, and Chavez follows with a bloop single to tie the game. La Russa didn't walk Chavez, as he was sure the Astros would pinch hit for Oswalt. Calero is out of the game.

What a job by Kiko Calero. He comes into the game with Biggio on first and a two run lead. He strikes out Beltran and Bagwell, then catches Biggio stealing. They're now in the 6th. Oswalt still does not have a strikeout.

I'm looking at Roy Oswalt's line in his boxscore, and I'm troubled by the 3 walks, 0 strikeouts. During the regular season, Roy had both an excellent K per 9 and an excellent K per BB. He just walked Womack with 1 out in the 4th for his 4th of the game; not what you want to do with the heart coming up. He had also allowed a single to Marquis, but Jason was out trying to stretch it into a double.

The Astros are trying to battle back, closing the score to 4-3, but unless Oswalt starts getting some K's, it will be one step forward and two steps back.

The Cardinals start Mabry instead of Sanders and John contributes to the offense, driving in the third run of the first with a single. Oswalt has put the Astros in a 3-0 hole before Houston even comes to bat.

I'm back from my trip, just in time to watch game 4 between St. Louis and Houston. I'd like to point out that the Cardinals continue to get almost all of their offense from their top four hitters. Yesterday, the big four went four for 14 with 2 solo HR, while the rest of the Cardinals hitters went 1 for 18. If you can just find a way to keep 2-5 at bay, you can beat the Cardinals. Clemens and Lidge found that way yesterday. Can Oswalt do the same?

Update: Maybe not. Walker walks, Pujols homers, a laser into the left field stands. It's 2-0 Cardinals in the top of the first.

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The Yankees-Red Sox game has been postponed. The tickets for tonight's game will be good Monday.

This sounds like it should help the Red Sox. According to the pre-game show, Schilling was able to throw off a mound today. While he couldn't start Sunday, he may be able to start Monday.

Of course, the Red Sox have to win a game first. :-)

I just got home, and there's no word on the status of tonight's game. But if you look at the radar loop, it doesn't look good.

Does anyone know how rain out tickets are handled? Would the tickets be good tomorrow or Monday?

The weather prediction is not good for the Yankees-Red Sox game tonight. Rain with thunder storms. I'm sure the game won't be called until the last minute, however, so the Red Sox can sell as many beers and hot dogs as they can. :-)

If the game does go on, Kevin Brown will take the mound against the Bronson Arroyo. Talk about must win games! No baseball team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a seven game series. There's only a 1 in 16 chance of it happening should the Yankees win tonight. However, I don't think the pressure is on Arroyo tonight. While the Fenway faithful might wish he'd mow down the Yankees like his namesake did in Death Wish, his job will be to keep the Yankees score from getting out of hand.

The pressure is on the offense. Damon and Bellhorn are 1 for 16 with no walks and seven strikeouts in the series. Keeping them off base minimizes the damage Ortiz and Manny can inflict. Luckily, the Red Sox will be back in Fenway, where they score about a run more per game than they do on the road.

Kevin Brown is in a good spot. He's pitched well in his last two outings, but tonight's game isn't one he has to win. He's rested, and he's facing an offense that will be pressing. I suspect it will be a good night for him.

Enjoy! And if it does rain, there's always Team America!

Once again, the Cardinals big four are too much for the Astros bullpen. Pujols and Rolen go back-to-back in the 8th to give the Cardinals a 6-4 victory and a 2-0 lead int he NLCS. Once again, Houston pitchers have no problem with the rest of the Red Birds lineup, but the 2-5 kill them. Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds combine to go 7 for 16 with 5 runs scored, six RBI, a double and 4 HR. The rest of the lineup was 2 for 16 with a walk.

The Astros offense was good last night, they just couldn't bring the runs across. They put 18 men on base via a hit or walk. Three were wiped out by a caught stealing or a double play, but that's still a lot of baserunners for four runs.

Wheeler pitched two perfect innings for the Astros last night. Could he have gone a third? He only threw 19 pitches.

The Astros have to hope that well rested pitchers Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt can take the game to Lidge in the 9th. Otherwise, this is going to be a very short series.

Morris was lifted for a pinch hitter in the fifth. So the last four innings will be a battle of the bullpens. Kline does not start well, giving up a single to Jose Vizcaino.

Update: Kline gives up two singles and is out of the game. La Russa looks like he's not going to be patient with his pitchers tonight.

Update: Kline has a bad finger and couldn't pitch with it tonight. Calero comes in gets two outs, walks Beltran, then gets Bagwell to fly out. St. Louis still leads 4-3 in the middle of the 6th.

Update: The Cardinals pen continues to be human in this series. They gave up three runs last night, and have now given up the tying run in the 7th. Houston is hitting very well. If their bullpen can hold up for a couple of innings, they may just win this game.

It's off to bed for me. Busy day tomorrow. Enjoy the rest of the game.

The Astros put together two hits and a walk so far in the fifth to take a 3-0 lead over the Cardinals. Morris has walked five so far; usually he walks 1 every four innings.

Munro has not walked anyone yet. Can he get through seven innings?

Update: Munro walks his first batter with 1 out in the 5th.

Update: The walk proves costly as Walker homers with 2 out to pull the Cardinals within 1.

Update: Pujols gets his 2nd single of the night, and Garner goes to take Munro out of the game. It was a good outing, but too short. Garner has to count on his bullpen for 13 outs.

Update: They don't even get 1. Rolen takes a pitch from Harville over the left field wall to give the Cardinals a 4-3 lead. Munro gave the best he could give tonight, and the Houston relievers provide a let down again.

Morgan Ensberg goes deep for the Astros. Houston has scored twice on solo HR, but they had put five others on base without driving any of those runners home. Vizcaino just wastes an out trying to stretch a single into a double. Astros lead 2-0.

One of the six umpires had to leave the field. No reason given yet. But that's why they carry six umps; they should be able to call the game fine with just five.

Matt Morris just walked Pete Munro to load the bases for Craig Biggio. He had intentionally walked Ausmus to get to the light hitting pitcher. Luckily, Biggio grounds out to 2nd to end the inning.

Correction: Sorry, Biggio was ahead 1-0 when he grounded out.

Pete Munro gave up a single to Womack leading off the bottom of the first. Not a good sign to put a man on base for the middle of the lineup. But Munro got a strikeout, a lineout and a flyout to get out of the inning with his 1-0 lead intact. He did throw 23 pitches, however, which makes keeping the middle relief out of the game less likely.

NLCS game two starts about 1/2 hour late, but like last night, Carlos Beltran drives a pitch into the right field seats. That's six on the post-season for the newest killer B. It's 1-0 Houston in the 1st.

The start of the game is being delayed tonight due to rain. Sandy Alderson believes the first pitch will be at around 8:45 EDT.

Pete Munro can only come away from this game with positives. He's expected to get bombed tonight; he's not a good pitcher. But if he should turn in a good performance and actually beat the Cardinals, he'll be an instant hero in Houston.

Jason Marquis was the one Cardinal starter who did not pitch well in the LDS. He pitched well against Houston this year (13K, 6BB, 1 HR in 18 innings) but gave up a lot of hits. I suspect this will be another high scoring game tonight.

Enjoy!

Correction: It's Morris, not Marquis. Morris pitched well but lost to Lima in the LDS. I don't think it matter who the Cardinals trot out as their starter. It's like the Reds in the mid 1970s. They had Gullett and a bunch of adequate starters. When you score like this, that's all you need.

Eleven extra-base hits sum up the Cardinals 10-7 victory over the Astros. Yes, the pens were the deciding factor, but the Astros can come away from this game with the knowledge that they can hit the Cardinals pen (6 hits and 3 runs in three innings tonight).

The big four were 8 for 15 for St. Louis; the rest of the team was 4 for 19. The Astros have to find a way to stop the middle of the order to win. The Cardinals need to keep chasing the Astros starters early, then tee off on the middle relief.

Rivera strikes out Millar to end the game, a 3-1 Yankees victory. Two close games won by NY. The starting pitching, which was suppposed to be the Yankees weak point, has been great.

I think the Red Sox could absorb 1 loss by Schilling or Martinez. Two puts a lot of pressure on Arroyo and Wakefield. The Yankees know at worst, they'll be coming back to the stadium for a game next weekend.

The Yankees load the bases in the 8th but don't score. The Sox have Bellhorn, Ramirez and Oritz coming up against Rivera.

Update: Bellhorn hits an easy grounder to Olerud at first. Manny can't tie the game with one swing.

Update: Ramirez lifts a double to the wall in left center. Now Ortiz can tie the game with one swing. Will he be walked?

Update: No, Mo is a real man and pitching to David. Ortiz is swinging for the fences. Big whiff on the first pitch, the 2nd is sent foul. Number three is another big swing and miss. Two down.

Update: It's up to Millar.

Lieber gives up a hit to Nixon to start the 8th. That's it for him. Flash Gordon will try to dispatch "Ming" Varitek.

Update: Varitek wins this battle. Varitek launches a double to the alley in right center. Two men in scoring position, and Rivera starts to warm.

Update: Cabrera drives in a run with a ground out. Lieber's line is done. Seven innings, 1 earned run, 1 walk and 3 K. Exactly what the Yankees needed against Pedro.

Update: Rivera in with 2 outs and Varitek at 3rd. Damon batting.

Update: Rivera shatters Damon's bat with his 2nd pitch. I've never seen a bat explode like that.

Update: Beauty of a pitch, low and on the outside corner to catch Damon looking. The Yankees are 3 outs away from a 2-0 series lead.

With Walker, Pujols and Rolen on base, Edmonds drives the three of them in with a double. It's 10-4 now, and I feel it's going to be a long rest of the night for the Astros and their fans.

Pedro is out after 113 pitches and six innings. He's turned the game over to Mike Timlin. It was a good, but not great outing by Martinez. Seven 7 in his six innings, but four walks and a hit by pitch hurt him. However, with the Sox offense, he should be able to win with that outing. Lieber has just been fantastic.

Cedeno pinch hitting for Williams hits a slow roller down the first base line with men on 2nd and 3rd. Bagwell picks the ball up, but can't throw out the runner and just tags Roger. I wonder why Bagwell didn't let the ball go foul? Did he think it was already foul when he picked it up? The Cardinals take the lead 5-4, and Womack follows with a single to drive in another. The Astros bullpen is once again proving to be the team's weakness.

Update: Walker beats out a slow roller to the hole at shortstop. Vizcaino throws anyway, and the ball gets by Bagwell to allow another run to score. The Cardinals bullpen now has a comfortable lead.

John Olerud just took Pedro deep to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 6th. Olerud has been one of my favorites for a long time, and it's great to see him get a big hit in the post-season.

The Sox go 1-2-3 in the sixth, but they finally work Lieber. They get him to throw 24 pitches. Damon has a great AB, fouling off a ton of pitches, but lines out to Bernie in center. In the Red Sox favor, they have Ramirez and Ortiz up back-to-back in the 7th.

That's both Pedro's radar gun readings and his number of pitches through five. One more 20 pitch inning and Martinez might be done. Meanwhile, Lieber keeps the Sox off balance, throwing a very Greg Maddux like 9 pitches per inning.

Garner isn't waiting for Backe to tire. He has two relievers getting ready in case Backe's high pitch count starts wearing on him.

Update: Woody Williams doubles. That might be a bad sign.

Update: Walker breaks his bat, but doubles anyway. He pulled the bat, but the ball went to the opposite field. It's 4-3. Backe is at 88 pitches, and Pujols is up.

Update: Backe walks Pujols, which causes the pitching change. A great start for the Backe, certainly better than was expected. Can the bullpen hold it?

Update: Qualls is in.

Update: Rolen lines a shot into right to score Walker. It's Rolen's first hit of the post season. The score is tied at 4.

Update: Qualls strikes out Edmonds, one batter too late. It's a new ballgame after five.

Backe puts two on with a HBP and a walk after striking out Rolen, but gets Sanders to hit into a DP to end the inning. He's struck out six through four, an excellent way to keep the Cardinals' bats off the ball. He has thrown 77 pitches through four, however, so it's just a matter of time before the Astros have to go to their middle relief.

Jeff Kent launches a HR to give the lead back to the Astros. I guess this game is going to come down to whose heart of the order can hit more HR.

Pedro finally has an easy inning, getting NY on ten pitches. Lieber keeps averaging 10 an inning.

Update: Leiber had an even easier inning. 1-2-3, and he's only thrown 36 pitches for the game through 4.

Backe and Williams are both throwing strikes tonight. Neither has walked a batter and both have struck out three. Each as made just one long ball mistake.

The Yankees get another walk and another hit off Pedro, but don't score. They do force 20 more pitches from Pedro, bringing his total to 46. Lieber has only thrown 20 through 2.

The Red Sox get their first base runner in the 2nd inning tonight as Ortiz leads off with a walk. But the Sox go 1-2-3 after that, and the Red Sox still do not have an early inning hit in the series.

Pedro's been wild so far tonight. His first sx pitches were balls, and he hits Alex Rodriguez with two strikes on him. Sheffield takes the first pitch into center to drive in Jeter and give NY a 1-0 lead.

Update: Pedro just needed to warm up. He just got Matsui and Williams looking.

Update: Pedro gets Posada to ground out, limiting the damage to just 1 run. The Yankees did work him, however, forcing him to throw 26 pitches. I suspect if he's throwing well the rest of the game, the Red Sox will let his pitch count go high.

Carlos Beltran gets the Astros off to a great start, following Biggio's single with a home run. It's power against power at Busch tonight.

Jon Lieber has a very easy first inning. He uses 9 pitches (6 strikes) to retire the side in order, including a strikeout of Manny Ramirez. Keeping the bases empty for Manny and Ortiz is an excellent strategy.

I'm very upset that my local FoxSportsNet station is showing a pre-season Celtics game rather than the NLCS game. Someone should tell the folks at Fox that they have a responsibility to show the playoff games so that those who'd like to see them all can! There's no reason one of these games couldn't have been played at 4 PM.

Update: It turns out the game is on NESN. However, Fox is not off the hook for those of us who would like to concentrate on one game at a time. Luckily, I have a last channel button and a Tivo, so I should be able to catch all the action eventually. :-)

The Astros and Cardinals face off tonight in the first game of the NLCS. Both are teams of extreme strengths and weaknesses. The opponent that best expolits the other's soft spots will win the series.

The Cardinals have four super lineup slots; the other five are easy outs. But those four are so good that even mediocre performance from the rest of the order still results in a lot of runs scored.

Make no mistake, the Astros have a powerful offensive lineup. In most years, we would be marveling that a team could have a heart of the order this good. But they are dwarfed by their counterparts from St. Louis. The Houston order has more depth (they are good 1-6), but they lack the explosiveness of the Cardinals.

The Astros extreme is in their starting pitching. They have Oswalt and Clemens, who are much better than anyone the Cards can start. The Cardinals are deeper, however, as everyone they start is a solid #2. That means most games they'll pitch well enough to give a lead to their excellent bullpen. The Astros will have a tough time getting Clemens and Oswalt 4 starts without wearing them out.

It's a tough situation for the Astros. They're main chance is to pound the St. Louis starters. But that gets you into the excellent Cardinal bullpen, where La Russa has a pitcher for every situation. If they can do it often enough, however, the Astros may be able to wear down the pen a bit. I think that's a long shot.

No, Pujols and company will pound the Astros second line starters, and likely win a couple against even Clemens and Oswalt. I expect a lot of runs in this series, but the Astros will be left buzzing while the Cardinals fly away with the series.

Varitek and Cabrera get singles off Rivera, but Mueller bounces back to Mo to start a double play and end the game.

Quite a performance. From perfect to slugfest. From loudmouth to eating crow. Matsui drove in five, Sheffield scored 4. A big night for Bernie and Ortiz. And an amazing performance by Rivera given all the tragedy and travel he's had to deal with.

Before the game, some were wondering if this series could top last year. I think we got a clue tonight.

Bernie Williams answers David Ortiz with a two-run double to give Rivera some insurance. Williams ends up at third on the throw with 2 outs in the 8th.

Now they're bringing Foulke in.

The Red Sox get an infield single and a bloop hit by Ramirez in the 8th. Ortiz up with 2 on and 2 out. A homer ties the game!

Update: Ortiz triples off Matsui's glove! What a game! And the Yankees go get Mariano Rivera. No pressure here after getting to the park late. He needs four outs for the save.

Update: Amazingly, Ortiz had 3 triples during the regular season.

Update: Mariano gets Millar to pop out to Jeter. To the bottom of the 8th.

With 1 out in the 7th, Mark Bellhorn ends the perfect game with a double. Still a tremendous performance by the Moose.

Update: That opened the flood gates. The Sox get four hits off Mussina to chase him from the game. Varitek then hits a two-run homer off Sturtze to bring the Sox within three. This is one dangerous offense.

Mussina has now retired 18 in a row. Seven K through six innings. He has the Red Sox hitters totally fooled.

Mussina keeps putting down the Red Sox. Two more strikeouts and a weak grounder in the fifth. He continues to average about 12 pitches per inning.

The Death Star does appear to be fully operational.

Mike Mussina struck out the side in the 4th, 12 up and 12 down. His strike three pitches to Bellhorn and Ramirez were two of the nastiest I've seen. Fifty pitches through four.

Schilling is out of the game in favor of Leskanic.

"I'm not sure I can think of any scenario more enjoyable than making 55,000 people from New York shut up."-- Comes Up Big Schill

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. I hope he's not mad that I'm quoting him.

It's clear after the walk to Sheffield that Schilling does not have it tonight. The leadoff hits by Jeter and A-Rod were on pitches that were very hittable (as they came to the plate, I thought, "That's going to get creamed.")

And as I write this, Matsui doubles in three runs. It's 5-0 Yankees, and Francona has to get Curt out of there.

Mike Mussina has retired the first nine batters he's faced. He got the Red Sox in the 3rd on a lazy fly and two pop outs. He's only thrown 34 pitches; at that rate he should able to get the game to Gordon and Rivera easily.

Somebody forgot to tell Manny that the Red Sox were an improved defensive team. :-)

Matsui looked more like Ichiro on that hit. It was a bad pitch, but Godzilla just got his bat on the ball and found the hole in the outfield. Bernie follows up with a single to score Hideki. Yankees lead 2-0 after 1.

Mussina gets the Red Sox in order in the first. He only throws 11 pitches, 8 for strikes. Schilling takes the mound next.

The Red Sox and Yankees get underway in the Bronx tonight, sometime after 8 PM EDT. Curt Schilling goes head-to-head with Mike Mussina in game 1. Mike Mussina has been the Yankees sacrificial lamb of late, going up against the opposition's best starter, pitching well but not well enough (game 1 of the LDS vs. Santana, for example).

Schilling did not start for the Red Sox in Yankee Stadium this year, although he did make three starts against New York. What the Yankees have been able to do against Curt this year is draw a walk. He's given up 10 in 18 2/3 innings against NY (he gave 25 in 208 innings to the rest of his opponents). So even though he's 2-0 vs. NY, he has a 4.82 ERA.

Mike Mussina has a very good history against the Red Sox big three of Ramirez, Damon and Ortiz. Ramirez has hit 5 HR off the Moose, but in 75 AB. Mussina has held him to a .253 OBA and a .459 slugging percentage over his career. The Yankees will be happy to have Manny produce like that for the series.

A matchup to watch, of course, is A-Rod vs. Varitek. ("F-you, f-you mother f-er, you want a piece of me?" may be the quote of the year.) Alex hit well against Boston, but nothing out of this world. His .412 OBA was impressive; his .486 slugging pct. less so. Jason, however, was absolutely shut down by Yankees pitching, hitting just .169 with four walks.

Enjoy!

This Yankees team is different from the recent run of champions. If you look at Boston and New York, the first thing that strikes you is that Boston is the better team. Aaron Gleeman provides the basic stats in his preview. The Red Sox scored more runs than the Yankees, allowed fewer runs than the Yankees, and should have finished seven games in front of the Yankees instead of three games behind. The Yankees were very good, but they were also very lucky.

Short series, however, can be dominated by a great player or two, and the Yankees core is better than the Red Sox core. The top three Yankees in terms of win shares this season were Sheffield (31), A-Rod (30) and Matsui (29). For the Red Sox, the top three were Manny (28), Damon (26) and Ortiz (25).

This comparison hit me last night. During the run of the late 90's the Yankees strength was concentrated up the middle in the players that had been developed by Michael and Showalter; Posada, Pettitte, Rivera, Jeter and Williams. Add to that Knoblauch, and you had a middle that towered over the rest of baseball. The strength here allowed the Yankees to add good but not great players at the corners. They could afford defense over offense at first and third, and could even put a defensive liability in left. As long as they had that great middle, they just had to hang competent players on the branches, and they were going to win.

But now the strength is in the branches. The core is still good, but it will get old soon. Williams is already in decline, and Jeter's season was below his normal expectations. Catcher wears on any offensive player. But by concentrating resources on the branches, the Yankees have made it more difficult to maintain the core. It's a story to watch in the future, but right now I see a club in decline; it just hasn't shown up in the won-lost record.

Back to the ALCS. The Red Sox are a better team overall, but the Yankees have a better concentration of talent, at least offensively. What the Red Sox have are two pitchers with high win shares who we know will pitch. Schilling has 22 WS, Pedro 16. The two highest values for Yankees hurlers are 16 for Rivera and 15 for Gordon. In other words, the Yankees can't be assured that the strength of their bullpen can be put to work for them. So when we look at S-A-M vs. R-D-O, the Red Sox advantage in starting pitching should negate the offensive advantage of the top three. Schilling and Pedro should do a better job of shutting down the big three than any of the Yankees starters against Boston's boppers.

Throw into that, of course, that Win Shares may be underestimating the actual value of the Yankees starters. If Mussina and Brown are healthy, they are nearly as good as Schilling and Martinez. And the recent evidence is that the Yankees starters are okay.

Boston was the better team this year. They should have won the AL East easily and didn't. They should win this series, but the more I look at NY, the more I think these two teams are evenly matched. So here's my prediction. The Yankees, with their strength at the end of the bullpen, will win the close ones. The Red Sox with their strength in the starters, will win the blow outs. (The Yankees were 23-16 in one run games, the Red Sox 16-17.) Think 1960, where the Pirates won four games by a margin of 7 runs, and the Yankees won three games by a margin of 35 runs. The question is, will game 7 be close?

With the Red Sox and Yankees going head-to-head for the AL Pennant again, it seems proper to review the last few years of the rivalry.

Episode 4: A New Hope

The baseball empire in NY has been dominating the game for 80 years. John Henry arrives in Boston and immediately changes the tenor of the team. The ownership actually cares about the fans! A young boy comes into the organization, and the sabermetric force is strong in him. Although they don't defeat the evil empire, the "Death Star" Jason Giambi fails to get the Yankees out of the first round. Beaten but not destroyed, Darth Steinbrenner threatens to rise again.

Episode 5: The Empire Strikes Back

Young Luke Epstein starts realizing the full power of the force. The Red Sox alliance launches operation "Cowboy Up", bringing in hitters with great OBA's who can hit HR. The final show down with the Yankees was going well. Princess Pedro destroys Zimmer the Hut. But clever mercenary Boba Boone puts a monkey wrench in the works, leaving the alliance split and reeling. Remember this climatic scene?

Episode 6: Return of the Jedi?

The Red Sox decide to acquire a powerful weapon to defeat the new Yankee Death Star, Gary Sheffield. But Darth Steinbrenner lures A-Rod to to the dark side. As the Red Sox alliance approaches the empire battle fleet, they realize that the Yankees starting pitchers are fully operational! Can Luke Epstein find the weaknesses in the starters that will let Wookie Damon and his cohorts defeat this awesome power? Watch the premier tomorrow!

Peter Kay of SI For Kids sends me this link to an amusing cartoon.

Longtime reader Steve Bonner attended last Thursday's Red Sox-Yankees game and sends this report:

In a stroke of what can only be described as outrageous fortune, I was traveling to New York on business for a meeting on Friday. I mentioned this to someone I work with in Chicago and she serendipitously mentioned that she was going to be in New York on Thursday and Friday for a meeting and that since I am her client she could rationalize buying tickets to the game if I could change my flight to fly in earlier on Thursday.

Long story short, my first trip to the Stadium in nearly 10 years was for Game 7 of the LCS with Boston. And what a game it was. Pure depression and sadness for the first 7 innings. The team always seemed to win with smoke and mirrors…their record seemed better than the individual players were capable of…this was someone else's year…Boston was a Team of Destiny… let their fans have the win, let them get over the Curse so we could expel it from the lexicon. ‘Oh well,’ I figured, ‘there will be reason to hope again next year.’

And then a funny thing started happening, each time Giambi homered I felt a little spark of something...but figured it was too little too late. Just enough to redeem the G man for a tough season in which injuries dragged him down.

Then came the 8th and after Jeter doubled we were on our feet chanting, "Paaaaaay-Dro, Paaaaaay-Dro," trying to help our team out in the only way we could. Trying to turn the knob on the pressure cooker up to a Spinal Tap-ish 11. When Jeter's hit was followed by Bernie's and then Matsui's and finally Posada's I felt like we were finally back in this thing. And once again the core of this team had come through.

Rivera was scintillating as usual. And when Wakefield came in I started mentally calculating how significantly he had kept the Yanks bats in check and started to realize that the simple law of averages dictated that he couldn't keep it up much longer. There was a glimmer that this may be the guy who gives it up.

Boone had been taking a beating from the fans around me all game, "he hasn't had a hit in 6 weeks," one guy said. When he stepped in and swung and launched that high drive I though it was going foul. Sitting in the second deck on the right field line I couldn’t see the ball well in relation to the foul pole....we were all on our feet, on our tip toes, not a breath escaping anyone and then slowly, magically I saw the fans in the left field seats...the seats in FAIR territory rise to greet the ball and the place EXPLODED into a wave a white noise.

Two days later, my voice has yet to fully come back, my ears are still slightly ringing and my hands are bruised from clapping and high-fiving with the throng in the street in the heart of the Bronx at about 12:30 am on a Friday morning. I'll never forget it as long as I live, never. People who don't understand baseball like to say that Yankee fans feel it's their right to win the World Series every year, that we take no joy in it because it is such a common occurrence. They are wrong, nothing is guaranteed, nothing is taken for granted and the joy I felt watching my team come back against their most bitter rival, against one of the best pitchers to ever pitch in the big leagues, to overcome a bust of a start by the Rocket, to still rally after Wells gave up the home run to Ortiz...well it's the most pure sort of joy I think I am capable of feeling over something that I didn't personally accomplish. I'll never forget how lucky I am that this team happens to be my team.

Go Yankees; Long Live Baseball

A Yankees fan has reworked a famous poem. Thanks to Lawrence Boucher for pointing this out.

Ben Jacobs offers this column on last night's game. Two things I find worth quoting:

There was no second-guessing of Little's move. It was obvious to every single person watching the game except for, it appears, Little that Martinez was out of gas. Even my girlfriend, who was watching the game despite the fact that she doesn't really like baseball in general or the Red Sox in particular, told me she was screaming at the TV for Little to take Martinez out.

I've heard this a couple of times today, that someone's girlfriend/wife knew to take Pedro out. It's looking bad for Grady when people who don't like baseball know more about the game than the manager.

And I'll be back next year, rooting just as hard for the Red Sox as ever. And the Red Sox will be back too. I guarantee that there will not be another prolonged stretch where the Red Sox don't make the playoffs or don't win in the playoffs.

How am I so sure? Hell, you might say, the fans in 1946 were probably sure that Ted Williams would get back to the World Series at least once and the fans in 1986 were probably sure that Clemens would lead Boston back to the World Series at least once. How can I be so sure, especially when the Red Sox didn't even reach the World Series this time?

Well, my faith is not in any of the players. Pedro Martinez? Nomar Gariciaparra? Manny Ramirez? You can take them all. Leave Theo Epstein in Boston, and I'll feel good about our chances. The boy wonder brought us to the brink of the World Series in his first season at the helm. Who knows what he can do from here on out? I know I'm excited to find out.

Yes, I think this is only the beginning. It may take a few years, but the Red Sox are going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time.

Derek Prior ran into a lot of miserable Sox fans last night, and doesn't think they should be unhappy:

There was a lot that was good about this year, this series, and this game. It was a lot of fun. My heart was broken yet again but in the end it has been an autumn I will remember fondly for the rest of my life. I'll remember leaping 5 feet in the air as Trot Nixon's homerun cleared the center field wall in game three in the ALDS. I'll remember the ups and downs; how every time it seemed like the Sox were out of it, they came storming back. I'll remember the nightly debates about which bar we were going to watch the game from. And yes, I will remember where I was when Aaron "f-ing" Boone broke my heart.

Go ahead and be miserable. As for me, I enjoyed the ride.

Irina Paley appears to have enjoyed the game:

Better than money. Better than sex. Better than your favorite song. Better than ice cream. Better than 'Empire Strikes Back.' Better than the swimsuit issue. Better than the FDNY callendar. Better than the prom queen. Better than the '94 Rangers. Better than the '70 Knicks. Better than Brooklyn pizza. Better than the Beatles.

Better than Empire Strikes Back? That's pretty good.

Steinbrenner and Theo are battling in the upper deck of Yankee Stadium with light baseball bats. Steinbrenner knocks Theo's pitching hand off.

GS: Billy Beane never told you what happened to your father.

TE: He told me enough! It was you who defeated him in 1978.

GS: No. I am your father.

TE: No. No. That's not true! That's impossible!

Eric Enders comments on Rivera's MVP at Baseball Primer and notices he wasn't the best relief pitcher in the series.

The Bloviator sums up his feelings on last night's game.

Shawn Bernard does not agree with me.

"I know most people wanted a different ending to the script this time, but once again the Yankees are the American League champions."

Do you really think so? "Most" people? There are a HELL of a lot of Yankee fans out there, all over the world. I would guess that there are more Yankee fans than Red Sox fans. Yeah, there are a lot of people who dislike the Yankees, too, but to say that "most" people wanted a different ending, I think, is far from the truth.

That quote is a statement of opinion. It's based on two things:

1. I know lifelong Yankees fans who are tired of the Yankees winning all the time and would like to see new teams in the World Series.


2. I assume that there are more non-Yankees fans than Yankees fans, and most of those fans were rooting for the Yankees to lose.

I admit that's flimsy evidence, but I'll stand by it until proven otherwise.

Jim Caple thinks so.

The Red Sox clubhouse was mostly silence after the eventual loss, with several players choking back tears. Pedro, who showed little character after the Game 3 melee last weekend by ducking the media, showed a great deal of it Thursday night by standing as tall as his 5-10 frame allows and taking full responsibility for what happened.

"I wouldn't put Grady on the spot like that whatsoever,'' Pedro said. "I am the ace of the team. I wasn't thinking about pitch counts then. That is no time to say I'm tired. There is no reason to blame Grady. He doesn't play the game. We do. I do. If you want to blame someone, blame me. I walk out there. I'm responsible for the pitches I make in the middle of the game.

"Grady did a great job throughout the season. I don't think it's fair to blame Grady for the decision made out there.''

Yes, it is. No starting pitcher as good and as competitive as Pedro is ever going to say he is tired and isn't strong enough to continue. That's why you hire managers to make the decision for them.

I agree with that last paragraph. I was listening to a report on my local NPR station this morning. They had a reporter at the game, and she interviewed Sox fans as they came out, and the consensus was that Little should be fired.
(If the report comes on-line, I'll link to it.)

Firing someone is pretty harsh. Grady made a bad decision, but he thought he was making a good one. At some point, Theo Epstein needs to sit Grady down and go through that inning with him, get his thought processes, get his reasoning clear. Only at that point can the Red Sox really make the decision. But Little has a lot of explaining to do.

I have two distinct feelings about last night's game. One from the Red Sox view, and one from the Yankees view. Hence, the double title.

Let me deal with the Red Sox first. One of the reasons I wish I could have been blogging last night was so I could have written, as the Yankees came up in the 8th, "I'm surpised Martinez is coming out for the 8th." Pedro was pitching a great game, but except for Soriano, he wasn't really dominating. People were hitting the ball, and in the 7th they hit it hard. Pedro got out of the 7th because Soriano was clueless at the plate the entire game and struck out for the 4th time.

So the eighth comes around. Grady has people warming in the bullpen, and Pedro comes out to the mound. Fine. Grady's ready to remove him at the first sign of trouble. Johnson pops out, but Jeter doubles and Williams singles. Back to a two run game. With Williams on first, and a line of lefties coming up, Grady goes to the mound, talks to Pedro briefly, and goes back to the dugout. According to the NY Times:

"Pedro wanted to stay in there," Little said. "He wanted to get the job done just as he has many times for us."

I (and I assume many others), have one question for Grady Little, "WHAT THE HELL WERE YOU THINKING?" Managers don't do much to influence games directly. As much as I like to complain about batting orders, deep down I know they make only a small difference. The success of a pinch hitter in any single situation has more to do with luck than statistical analysis. But a manager has to know when his pitcher is tired and get him out of there. Grady Little failed last night, just as Dusty Baker had two night earlier. Dusty had not been prepared for Prior's downfall. Grady was prepared, but refused to take action. He let Pedro's machismo overrule the clear truth of the situation. Matsui doubled. Posada doubled. Tie game. Another curse perpetuated by the failings of a manager. I've already gotten two emails calling for Little's head. I'm sure there will be many more as the day progresses.

But, like yesterday, it's not all about the Red Sox losing. The Yankees won in grand Yankees fashion, battling back against the game's best pitcher, and winning against the guy they couldn't hit all series. It was a game of redemption for many.

While I was watching last night, I thought the turning point would be Mike Mussina's entry into the game. Clemens wasn't pitching that badly. He was throwing strikes, they just weren't moving, and the Red Sox were hammering him. Torre realized Clemens just didn't have it, and took him out with four runs in, men on 1st and 3rd, and none out in the fourth. In came the Moose. In came the post-season loser. He strikes out Varitek and gets Damon to hit into a double play. It was do or die right there, and Mussina performed splendidly. He gave them three scoreless innings on 33 pitches and rehabilitated his image.

Jason Giambi was demoted to 7th in the lineup last night. That had to be a huge slap in the face to him. But it also seemed to be just what he needed. He homered in the fifth and the seventh to show his teammates that Pedro could be hit. A second great player rising to the occasion.

Pedro and Jorge Posada had exchanged words in game 3, with Pedro allegedly threatening to bean the Yankee catcher. The game tieing double gave Posada the last laugh there.

And finally, Aaron Boone. Benched twice against Pedro for Enrique Wilson (who's error led to a run in the 2nd), a disappointment since the trade from Cincinnati, joins the ranks of unlikely Yankee heroes and becomes only the fifth player to end a playoff series with a HR. And he did it off Wakefield, the soft tosser who for two games had the Yankees in knots.

The game lived up to its billing. It was one for the ages. I know most people wanted a different ending to the script this time, but once again the Yankees are the American League champions.

Jeremy Senderowicz alerts me to a couple of lineup changes:

• Johnson is batting 2nd.


• Wilson is starting at third, but batting 8th.


• Giambi is batting 7th!

Is Torre panicking? Giambi is a good player who is in a slump. Like Nomar yesterday, he may break out of it at any time.

Correction: Giambi is batting 7th, not 8th. That's what I get for blogging and eating at the same time!

Troy Carpenter writes with this observation:

I wanted to let you know another reason tonight's game is the "perfect storm of baseball", as you dub it. The weather is getting downright weird, like last night. I work near Union Square in Manhattan, and it doesnt look like rain, but the wind is whipping and howling, reminiscent of my old home chicago. We could very well see some bizarre wind-aided plays tonight.

Adventures in the Outfield, tonight on Fox.

Mark Mandrella sends this link, about a Hollywood Studio planning to make a movie about the fan who interfered with Alou catching the foul ball in game 6. It's the same studio that made Gigli, so they know what it's like dealing with curses.

The Baseball Crank looks at the history of the Yankees in deciding game 7's and finds they have a losing record (5-6)! Still 5-6 is pretty reasonable when you consider if you get to the 7th game, you have two evenly matched teams. The Red Sox have never lost a game 7 in the ALCS (they beat the Angels in 1986). Of course, they've never won a deciding game 7 in the World Series (0-3).

Dr. Manhattan has his thoughts on tonight's game over at Blissful Knowledge.

Brian Gunn at Redbird Nation is also annoyed by the obsession with the Cubs losing. See his post after game 6, and after game 7, where is he too kind to Cubs fans who treated him shabbily as the Cardinals collasped.

Edward Cossette has some great quotes over at Bambino's Curse.

Alex Belth will be watching tonight with his eyes closed.

The Portland Sox fan is "ultra-confident." That's always a bad sign. :-)

If last Saturday was the game of century, tonight's contest has to be the game of the Holocene. It's the perfect storm of baseball:

• The Yankees are playing the Red Sox. That by itself would make it the game of the day.


• Some people who make money selling books believe the Red Sox are cursed because the Sox sold the greatest player who ever lived to the Yankees. Since that time, the Yankees have won 26 World Championships, the Red Sox 0.


• Tonight's game is the 7th game of a best of 7 series. Even Scarlett O'Hara would have to admit there's no tomorrow. (I doubt she would be a Yankees fan.)


• The greatest pitcher in the history of the Red Sox is facing the greatest pitcher in the history of the Red Sox.


• There's bad blood from game 3.

Clemens has one advantage over Pedro in this game; he's pitched less. This will be Pedro's fourth start in the post-season, and a busy September (in which he was unhittable) seems to have taken its toll. Pedro has a 4.29 ERA this October. He's only struck out 15 in 21 innings. That's not bad for most pitchers, but it means that Pedro is off his game.

Clemens, on the other hand, has had his starts spread out. It's only his third start of the post season, and he's been pitching like he did back in 1986; two walks and 13 K in 13 innings. He's allowed 10 hits in 47 AB against him, and only two were for extra bases.

I have no clue what will happen today. The Red Sox biggest fear is that someone like Enrique Wilson will deliver the lucky hit to win the game. The Yankees biggest fear is that the Red Sox don't have an Enrique Wilson anywhere in their lineup. I know what I want to happen. I want a one-run game in the bottom of the ninth. I want someone in scoring position, two out and Derek Jeter at the plate. Will he pop to third like Yaz, or go yard like Bucky? Whatever the outcome at that point, it will be a glorious finish.

Looking at Google News right now, I see the following headlines concerning the NLCS:

Cubs aren't pinning blame for loss on fan
Cubs Lose, Curse Wins
Cubdom left numb in end

(Cubdom looks a little too much like condom, which changes the whole meaning of the story!) Didn't the Marlins win? Aren't the Marlins the Cinderella story? Why is the big story of the day Cubs lose, not Marlins win? So here, read a celebratory article by Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald:

That silence you still hear today? It is the sound of baseball's mouth hanging open.

The Marlins pelted the hexed, haunted Cubs, 9-6, to become the most improbable team in the World Series since the 1969 New York Mets nicknamed after a miracle. And the Marlins might be the most hated underdog in the history of sports, seeing as how nobody outside of South Florida wanted to see the Marlins advance. Nobody.

And that sound you hear is all of South Florida laughing.

While dancing.

And shouting itself hoarse.

''We're the darlings of the baseball world right now,'' Marlins Manager Jack McKeon said.

And they should be the darlings. How can you not love Josh Beckett, the young fireballer? How can you not love Pudge Rodriguez, whose combination of arm and bat are unmatched? And how can you not love the rookie, Miguel Cabrera, who plays with reckless abandon and is having the time of his life?

This was an evenly matched series, which went to the Marlins because of a managerial blunder by Dusty Baker in game six. To the Marlin's credit, they took the opening and never looked back. I can't wait to see what they do against the AL Champ.

Bako flies out to left to end the game! Marlins are NL champs, and the Cubs have once again blown three match points to lose the NL pennant. What a great show by Florida however. A small market, low attendance team makes the World Series. Bud Selig must be fuming, which makes me very happy.

No Cubs-Red Sox series, but whoever the Marlins end up playing, it's going to be a lot of fun. Beckett, Pudge and Cabrera are worth the price of admission. We'll see who they are going to play tomorrow night.

Once again, this series raises questions about how much attention Dusty Baker pays to situations during the game. His lack of a warmed up reliever when Prior got in trouble yesterday cost the Cubs a lot more than a missed foul ball. Let's see if the press calls Dusty on that.

Congratulations to Jack McKeon. I'm not a big fan of his as a manager, but he turned this team around, and has them four wins away from their second World Championship. A magic year in Miami.

The Marlins fail to score in the 9th. It's the Cubs last chance to reverse their curse.

Update: Urbina on against Ramirez.

Update: The Marlins have Looper warming just in case, not making the same error Dusty did yesterday.

Update: Urbina hits Ramirez in the leg with a 3-2 pitch. Not a good way to start the inning for the Marlins.

Update: Simon strikes out on an outside pitch. A rare K for Randall.

Update: Urbina has not hit a batter in the regular season since 1997. He's hit two this post season now.

Update: Alex Gonzalez of the Cubs strikes out. The Cubs season comes down to Paul Bako.

Beckett stays in to face Grudzielanek.

Update: Another deep fly ball to center, and once again Pierre runs it down. Sosa up.

Update: Sosa caught looking. Alou will try to keep the inning alive.

Update: Alou hits the first pitch to SS for the third out.

The Cubs are in real trouble now. Their best hitters have gone by the boards without making a peep. They'll have Aramis Ramirez, Karros and Gonazlez in the bottom of the ninth. Not a trio that strikes fear into the heart of an opponent.

And what a performance by Josh Beckett. Four innings, 45 pitches, 1 hit, 0 BB and 3 K. I'll assume for a minute that Urbina will be on in the 9th to close the game.

Great diving catch by the Cubs Alex Gonzalez, robbing Juan Pierre of his third hit. Doesn't quite make up for last night's error, but it was a beauty.

Update: Borowski comes in and gets Castillo for the last out. Cubs coming up in the eighth with their 2-3-4 hitters. This is the inning for them to do some damage and get back into this game.

Troy O'Leary gets the first hit off Josh Beckett and drives the ball into the right field stands for a HR. Cubs now trail 9-6 in the 7th.

Update: Lofton flies out to end the inning. Thirty-five pitches for Beckett through three innings. Do you pull him now so he can start on Saturday if the Marlins win? Or do you let him try to finish the game and not use him until game 3?

Update: Beckett is batting for himself in the 8th. Looks like he's going to stay in.

The Marlins get consecutive singles with two out in the 7th. Veres coming in to face the Marlins' Alex Gonzalez.

Update: Gonzalez doubles in two, but gets thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple. It's 9-5 Marlins in the middle of the 7th. It's looking bad for the Cubs right now, but at least the wind is blowing out.

Beckett gets the side in order in the 6th. Two innings, 20 pitches. Just what the Marlins needed.

Just got an e-mail from STATS, Inc. that the wind is blowing out to center tonight. That's the direction that yields the most runs in Wrigley.

Juan Pierre swings at the first pitch again, but this time lines a single to right to chase Kerry Wood from the game. Marlins have runners at 1st and 3rd with two out.

Update: Castillo singles off Farnsworth's glove to drive in another run. They now lead 7-5.

Update: Farnsworth strikes out Pudge to end the inning. Cubs need two to tie.

Josh Beckett comes in with a two-run lead to protect on two days rest. We'll see what he has.

Update: Beckett retires the side in order, helped by two nice catches in right by Miguel Cabrera. Most importantly, he only needed eight pitches to end the inning; most likely, he'll be able to pitch another.

Update: Beckett is batting in the top of the 6th. Conine is on first with one out, and Beckett is trying to bunt, but Wood's wild and Beckett is ahead 2-1.

Update: Beckett strikes out on a foul bunt.

Brad Banks pinch hits for Penny leading off the 5th and draws a walk. Pierre swings at the first pitch (why?) and flies out to center. Josh Beckett will be coming on in relief when the Cubs bat in the fifth. Man on first, one out.

Update: Luis Castillo draws a walk. It makes Pierre's impatience appear all the more damaging.

Update: Pudge does it again. A one-out double plates Banks. Marlins have men on 2nd and 3rd. Wood is now over 90 pitches thrown.

Update: Cabrera grounds out to first, but Castillo scores from third. Tie game in the top of the 5th. Derrek Lee follows it up with a first-pitch single to right. It's now 6-5 Fish.

Update: Stolen base by Lee give Lowell an RBI opportunity.

Update: Lowell strikes out to end the inning. Wood has now thrown 100 pitches in the game, 67 for strikes.

Mark Redman only goes three. Brad Penny comes on in relief to get his two cents in.

Update: Penny gets the side in order in the fourth. He throws 9 pitches, 7 for strikes.

Moises Alou follows up his HR with a great diving catch to end the top of the 4th inning. Cubs still lead by 2.

Moises Alou takes one into the crowd in the street with Sosa on first. The Cubs take a 5-3 lead, and the slugfest continues.

Update: That's it for the Cubs in the 3rd. Of course, they now have a lead to blow. :-)

Wood gets the Marlins 1-2-3 in the third, including strikeouts of Rodriguez and Cabrera. To the bottom of the third, tied at 3.

Kerry Wood hits a two-run HR on a 3-2 count to tie the game! The crowd is going wild, chanting, "Kerry! Kerry!" It's the 7th HR of his career, the first in the post season.

Update: Redman strikes out Lofton to end the inning. It's tied at 3 after two innings. My wife just asked if it was going to be a slugfest. Sure looks that way.

Alex Gonzalez of the Cubs follows a one-out Karros single with a double to deep right center. Cubs have a threat with one out. Men on 2nd and 3rd.

Update: Miller grounds out to plate the Cubs first run. Kerry Wood up with two out.

Update: Wood works the count to 3-2.

Wood tries to make a play on a ball up the middel by grabbing it behind his back. It looks more like a Jai-Lai play as he flings the ball into foul territory and Conine gets a single.

Update: Wood gets out of the inning without futher harm. To the bottom of the 2nd.

The Cubs get one hit, and single by Grudzielanek, but don't score. There were a couple of deep flies to right by Sosa and Alou, but Cabrera ran them down. Redman wasn't that sharp, throwing 19 pitches, only 10 for strikes.

Fox misses the start of the game. How lame is that! Pierre leads off with a triple, as Sammy Sosa slips on the wet grass in right field. Castillo pops to short left, and Pierre has to hold at third.

Update: A great AB by I-Rod. He works the count to 3-2, fouls off a number of pitches, and draws the walk. Men on 1st and third with 1 out.

Update: Damien Miller just blocked his 2nd pitch of the night. Great job keeping the runner at third.

Update: Miguel Cabrera hits a 1-2 pitch into the stands in left center. A tremendous shot to give the Marlins a 3-0 lead in the first inning. And Wrigley field falls silent.

Update: Wood strikes out the last two batters of the inning. Cubs coming up in the bottom of the first.

A huge victory for the Red Sox, and a great offensive game. As Joe Buck pointed out, the Red Sox were able to get into the middle relief of the Yankees, and exploit that weakness. Boston pounded the NY bullpen for five runs to force a game seven.

And that's how it should be. The Curse of the Bambino being decided at Yankee Stadium between Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Winner take all. Cancel any plans you have for tomorrow night; it's going to be an instant classic.

Scott Williamson on to pitch the ninth. The Yankees are hitting .143 against him in this series.

Update: Giambi starts off 0-2, but works the count full.

Update: Giambi strikes out swinging on a high fastball. Williams up.

Update: Damon gets blown over by the wind after catching Bernie Williams' popup. It's up to Jorge Posada to keep the game alive.

Bill Mueller hits a one-out double in the 9th to chase Jeff Nelson. Gabe White will face Trot Nixon.

Update: Nixon trots around the bases after launching a HR into the upper deck of Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox lead 9-6.

Update: Damon doubles down the left field line with two out. Sox are not finished yet.

Update: Walker grounds out to end the inning. The Yankees have the heart of the order up in the bottom of the ninth.

Mike Timlin starts the eighth inning for the Red Sox. He strikes out Aaron Boone for the first out.

Update: Garica bloops one to the opposite field for a one out single.

Update: Soriano breaks his bat and Garciaparra forces Garcia at 2nd. Jeter up with a chance to cement in place in Red Sox infamy.

Update: Soriano goes on the first pitch and steals 2nd to put himself in scoring position.

Update: With the closeups of Timlin, it strikes me that he looks like the actor who played the trainer in Seabiscuit.

Update: Jeter hits a shot to Mueller, who bobbles the ball, but keeps it in front of him and gets Jeter. To the ninth, Red Sox still lead by one.

Nelson on to start the eighth. Nomar hits one to Boone, who bobbles the ball, but it goes as a base hit. Nomar is 4 for 5 tonight.

Update: Ramirez hits into a double play, 4-6-3. It wasn't the smoothest double play I've ever seen, but Manny's not the fastest runner, either.

Update: Nelson strikes out Ortiz to end the inning. Ortiz tried to check his swing twice during that AB, but got rung up each time.

With one out, Matsui singles over the third baseman. Nick Johnson will try to play Babe Ruth again.

Update: Johnson grounds into a DP. Sox still lead 7-6 after seven.

Nomar drives one to the wall in left-center. It's a triple, but Matsui makes his 2nd bad defensive play of the game, and throws the ball into the stands allowing Nomar to score.

Ramriez follows with a double off the wall in straight away center. Contreras remains in the game.

Update: A splitter in the dirt gets by Posada. Tying run at third with none out.

Update: Heredia walks Damon on four pitches. Red Sox take the lead. No excuse for that. Throw a strike and let your defense help you.

Update: An intentional walk to Varitek. Heredia will try to get Damon to end the inning.
Update: A single off first base by Ortiz ties the game at six. A break for the Yankees; if that doesn't hit first, Ortiz gets at least a double out of it.

Update: Mueller gets his 2nd hit of the game. The slump seems to be over for the Red Sox lineup. Nomar, Ortiz, Millar and Mueller all have at least two hits today. Contreras is out, Heredia comes in to face Nixon with men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Another pitch in the dirt gets by Posada. That puts the go-ahead run at third with one out. Infield in, but Heredia K's Nixon looking.

Update: Heredia strikes out Walker, but it's one batter too late. Theo gets his batting around inning, as the Sox send nine to the plate. To the bottom of the 7th with the Red Sox leading 7-6.

Todd Jones comes in to start the 6th for the Red Sox. This is Jones' first post-season appearance. He starts it off well, striking out Karim Garcia.

Update: After a single, a passed ball and a walk, Embree comes in to face Giambi. Soriano and Jeter execute the double steal to put two runners in scoring position.

Update: Giambi strikes out for the 2nd time today. Williams up with two on.

Update: Bernie hits a shot to third base, but Mueller comes up with it to get out of the inning. The Red Sox have three innings to get two runs.

Torre makes the move. Jose Contreras comes in to start the sixth inning. I have to agree with the move. As a former starter, you would think Jose can go as many innings as needed to get to Mariano Rivera.

Update: Contreras strikes out the first two batters, but walks Damon on a 3-2 count. Walker up with a man on first.

Update: Damon steals 2nd unchallenged.

Update: Walker strikes out. No one got good wood on the ball, as Contreras get three K and issues one walk. The move looks good so far.

Jorge Posada matches his Red Sox counter part with a one-out HR to left field. Like Giambi, it's his first HR of this post season. Yankees lead 6-4 in the bottom of the 5th.

With two out, Millar singles to put runners on 1st and 2nd. Pettitte is struggling this game, having thrown 87 pitches already. It's up to Mueller.

Update: Pettitte strikes out Mueller. Andy gave up two hits and struck out two in that inning. He's up to 92 pitches. Contreras has been warming up. Does Torre make the move to the bullpen in the top of the 6th, or does he let Pettitte come back out and get in trouble? If it stays close, Torre is going to earn his pay next inning.

Pettitte walked Manny Ramirez last time up. He's behind 2-0 here. Pettitte looks like he's worried about coming inside to Manny. His two pitches have both been outside.

Update: After a visit from the pitching coach, Pettitte gets Ramirez to fly out to center.

Garciaparra gets his 2nd hit of the game leading off the 5th. A lot of the offensive woes of the Red Sox have been placed at his feet. Is he breaking out of his slump, and if so, is it too little too late?

One out singles by Posada and Matsui in the 4th set up Babe Ruth look-a-like Nick Johnson for some heroics.

Update: I'm surprised no one is warming up for the Sox.

Update: Johnson delivers a ground-rule double to drive in Posada and put runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. He hit it a ton up the power alley in right.

Update: Boone grounds out to short, but drives in a run to make the score 4-3. Johnson at 2nd with two out for Garcia.

Update: Nomar makes an error on a ball up the middle. Soriano up with men on first and third with two out. Burkett makes the mistake of putting the ball over the plate, and Soriano drives it into the left center power alley. Garcia scores from first to give the Yankees a 5-4 lead. Consecutive mistakes give the Yankees the lead. One might think the Red Sox are cursed. :-)

Update: That's it for Burkett. Bronson Arroyo is on the mound in relief.

Update: Arroyo starts off by walking Jeter. Men on 1st and 2nd for Giambi.

Update: A tough AB, but Giambi strikes out to end the inning. It's a one-run game going to the top of the fifth.

Andy Pettitte gets Varitek to hit it on the ground this time, but it goes through Boone's legs. He just never got down to field it.

Update: No harm, Pettitte gets two pop ups to end the inning.

Jason Varitek gets one up into the wind and drives the ball into the left field stands leading off the 3rd. Red Sox tie the game at 1. This contest could come down to which team hits the most HR.

Update: Pettitte follows the HR with a walk to Damon.

Update: Walker continues his hot hitting with a single. Men on 1st and 2nd with none out for Garciaparra. Is this Pettitte's blow-up inning?

Update: Nomar hits a ball in the shortstop hole. Jeter gets it and throws to third to get the lead runner. If no one had been on, it would have been a base hit.

Update: Pettitte is still wild, he walks Ramirez. Bases loaded with 1 out. Ortiz up.

Update: Ortiz delivers on the first pitch. A line drive over a leaping Jeter plates two. Red Sox lead 3-1. This could be the bat around inning Theo Epstein was hoping for.

Update: Almost a bad play by Manny Ramirez. Millar bloops one into center, but Manny was running on the hit. If Williams had caught it, sure double play. But the ball falls in and Manny scores to make it 4-1. Mueller hits into a 5-4-3 DP to end the inning. Now we'll see if Burkett can hold the lead. I expect at the first sign of trouble, John will be out of there.

John Burkett is being very efficient so far. Only 22 pitches through 2 innings.

A rare poor defensive play by Hideki Matsui. He got fooled by the wind, and the ball went over his head. Mueller gets a double on the misplay.

Update: The double goes for naught. Nixon bounces back to Pettitte to end the inning. Pettitte is pitching well; 33 pitches, 22 for strikes and two strikeouts.

Soriano hits a ball to centerfield that just kept going back. Johnny Damon ran it down, but it shows that if you get a ball into the air with power, it's probably going out.

Update: Giambi proves that statement right. Giambi takes the first pitch from Burkett into the seats. It's his fifth career HR in 36 AB against Burkett. Yankees lead 1-0 after 1 inning.

Damon grounds out to Soriano to start the game.

Update: Nomar Garciaparra singles in the first, taking a pitch the other way to right.

Update: Manny grounds out to Soriano to end the inning. Four balls in play, but none of them (including Nomar's single) was hit hard.

Larry Mahnken notes that the Chicago Sun-Times has outed the fan who got in the way of Alou catching the ball last night. Larry is very upset with this, and does not link to the article, but links to the comments page where you can tell the Sun-Times how upset you are with them.

I won't link to the article either, but it was just a matter of time before everyone in Chicago knew who this guy was. His picture has been plastered all over the internet. People were going to recognize him and talk. It's a bit funny, however, that the article reads like one of those mad killer stories:

"He's a good kid, a wonderful son, never in any trouble," Cohen told a Sun-Times reporter.

It sounds like that SNL skit where they interviewed people who knew John David Stutts, the man who shot Buckwheat. :-)

The Bloviator reworks the lyrics to a famous song. But first, you should read how he really feels about last night's fan incident.

"Needless to say, the 'Save Ferris' campaign is dead."

Scott Ott, investigative reporter for ScrappleFace, has the answer (thanks to Casey Abell for alerting me).

The Red Sox face off against the Yankees this afternoon with John Burkett opposing lefty Andy Pettitte. Here's what I wrote about Burkett before the rainout on Sunday:

John Burkett is 0-6 vs. the Yankees in the regular season, but 1-0 in the playoffs. The first time he ever faced the Yankees was in the 1996 Division Series when he was a starter for the Texas Rangers. He pitched a complete game, allowing only two runs. (It's the only post-season game the Rangers have ever won; they are 1-9 vs. the Yankees.) Interestingly, his only other good start against the Yankees was his last, on July 26th of this year. He went 5 2/3 shutout innings in that one.

Looking at the matchups vs. Burkett, it's hard to find a Yankee who doesn't hit him well. Posada is one who's had the most trouble; he's 0 for 10 with 1 walk. Giambi doesn't have much of an average against Burkett (8 for 35), but four of his hits have been home runs.

The last time Burkett pitched, he was in a similar situation, trying to turn the ultimate game of the series into the penultimate game. He was mediocre, but the Red Sox bullpen and offense bailed him out. If he pitches that way again today, I don't think the Red Sox will survive.

Boston is in a bad situation, facing a lefty on the road, two things they have not been good at this year. Red Sox fans have to hope that Pettitte has his annual "bad playoff outing" today. In every year from 1996 on, there seems to be one game during the post season in which Andy gets hammered. It happened in the Division Series last year; it happened in game 6 vs. Arizona; it happened in the last game of the Division Series against Oakland in 2000; it happend in the World Series sweep of Atlanta in 1999; it happened in the LCS vs. Cleveland in 1998; it happened in game 5 of the Division Series vs. Cleveland in 1997; and it happened in his first World Series start vs. Atlanta in 1996. Will Pettitte have his blow up today, or will he wait for the World Series?

The night cap should be lots of fun. Game 7, Wrigley field, two good pitchers on the mound. Mark Redman faces Kerry Wood in a rematch of game three. Remember, Redman pitched Wood pretty even. Both went 6 2/3, with Redman giving up one more hit and one more walk, but Wood giving up one more run. Like the Red Sox, the Cubs are weak when a lefty starts against them. It's a real toss-up. Everyone except Prior and Pavano will be in the bullpen. Will Dusty have someone up in time? Will both managers waste outs with one-run strategies? Will the wind be blowing out? Will the fans hands be kept in? And the question I'm sure all Cubs fans are asking, "What bone-headed thing will the Cubs do to lose again?"

We'll know the answers tonight. Enjoy!

That was the advice of the Cub Reporter back on October 9th. (Hat tip to the Book of Mike for the link.)

Rob Neyer tells us how this wasn't the first time the fell apart this big in the post season. Defense was the culprit that time, too.

Lain is an Englishman in France who loves the American game. And he's real excited about a game seven tonight.

Dan Le Batard writes with glee about the Marlins win last night:

The Florida Marlins, wheezing and gasping and down to their last five breaths of oxygen, were flopping and flailing around on the deck of the boat Tuesday night, prepared to expire after a valiant and bloody fight.

But, with only five outs remaining in their season, the angry Marlins spit out the hook, speared an extraordinary angler named Mark Prior in the jugular and put up such a majestic fight that the entire Cubs boat is now in tatters, leaking everywhere.

And they hope to sink it tonight.

And you have to love the attitude of the Marlins players:

On the television nearby, a local newscast kept showing replays of the play that began the avalanche. The Marlins were down, 3-0, and pitcher Prior had retired about the last 432 batters he had faced. Juan Pierre skittered a double down the left-field line with one out and then Luis Castillo fouled a 3-2 pitch toward left field. Left fielder Moises Alou leaped and reached into the crowd and appeared to have the ball near his grasp, but a Cubs fan knocked it out.

''That fan saved our season,'' Castillo said now, looking up at the television. ``Moises would have had that. We always go from backward to forward. That's how we do it. We respond. The spirit lifted us. I became more confident, more aggressive. The fan gave us a chance we shouldn't have had, and you can't give us extra chances.''

On the bench, the Marlins started saying to each other, ``Now let's make that fan famous.''

And they would. Infamous. That fan is now the least popular figure in Chicago since either Al Capone or Mrs. O'Leary's cow. Fans showered him with beer and debris as he wept, and the Marlins were genuinely worried for his safety afterward.

''I just hope that fan got out alive,'' Derrek Lee said.

Maybe Miami should offer that poor guy asylum.

The Marlins get Lofton to pop out to win the game. There will be a game 7 in Chicago tomorrow night at 8. Memories of 1984 have to be flooding into the minds of the Cub faithful. The heros tonight are Carl Pavano who pitched well into the sixth, Pierre who was 3 for 5, I-Rod who got another big hit, and Mike Mordeci, who put the game out of reach. And Florida fans have to thank the Cubs fan who wanted that foul ball. Jeffery Maier in reverse.

Cubs have Bako, Ramon Martinez and Lofton scheduled.

Update: Bako strikes out. One down, two to go.

Update: Martinez flies out to right for out number 2. It's up to Lofton to keep the Cubs alive.

Urgeth Urbina comes in the start the 8th. We could be looking at a two inning preservation here.

Update: Cubs go quietly in the 8th as Urbina has a 1-2-3 inning. He only throws 9 pitches, 7 for strikes to retire the Cubs.

With one out in the 8th, Juan Pierre gets his 2nd hit of the night and the first extra-base hit for the Marlins as he doubles down the left-field line. Castillo up.

Update: Fox just pointed out that there is no action in the Cubs bullpen. I think that's a mistake this late in the game. You have to be ready for anything.

Update: Now Farnsworth gets up, with a 3-2 count on Castillo.

Update: Oops. A fan gets in the way of Alou trying to make a catch in foul territory. It was in the stands, so it wasn't interference. But then Prior walks Castillo, and ball four is wild, so there are now runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, and the dangerous Ivan Rodriguez is at the plate.

Update: I-Rod singles to left, driving in Pierre. 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Cabrera up.

Update: Grounder to short, and Gonzalez makes an error. That loads the bases with 1 out.

Derrek Lee doubles in two! Tie game!

And now Dusty is finally coming out to get Prior. He was not prepared for this. He should have had Farnsworth ready the second Prior got into trouble. Dusty has wasted a great pitching performance by his young ace.

Update: This is turning into a typical Cubs slide. It's amazing how this always happens. I don't believe in curses, but I bet a lot of Cubs fans do right now. Lowell is intentionally walked to load the bases.

Conine hits a sac fly to right to score the go-ahead run! An amazing turnaround.

Update: Backup SS Mike Mordecai, in on a double switch, hammers a double to the wall in left center. It clears the loaded bases, and the Marlins lead 7-3! If the Cubs don't get to the World Series, they game will go down in Cubs lore as one of the biggest squanders they've ever had.

Update: Mike Remlinger is in.

Update: Remlinger ends the inning. We'll see if the Cubs have anything left in this game.

Update: Sorry I missed this, but Remlinger gave up a single to Pierre to make the score 8-3.

Chad Fox comes in with a man on 2nd to face Grudzielanek, and gives up a single to make the score 3-0. Another hook in the mouth of the fish.

Update: Sosa singles to put runners at 1st and 3rd. He's having a great series, hitting .348 with a .483 OBA and a .652 slugging percentage.

Alou makes the final out of the inning. The Marlins have two innings to score three runs.

Prior retires the Marlins 1-2-3 in the 7th. He's still pitching great, and hasn't hit 100 pitches yet. It's not looking good for the Marlins right now.

Dontrelle Willis is warming up in the bullpen. I guess that means he won't be pitching game 7 if it gets that far.

Sosa and Alou single to start the sixth. Pavano may be tiring.

Update: Pavano induces a double play to short. Sosa now at 3rd with two out.

Update: That's it for Pavano. Willis comes in to relieve and face the lefty Randall Simon.

Upate: Willis strikes out the Cubs Alex Gonzalez, but the damage is done. It's still close, but Prior has only thrown 86 pitches, so he has a few more innings in him.

Update: Ball four gets by Rodriguez (looks like a wild pitch). Sosa scores, Cubs up 2-0.

Update: Willis throws his first two pitches for balls to PH Eric Karros. He looks a bit wild.

Still 1-0 after five. It would be smart for the Marlins to work the counts as much as possible. If they can keep the game within one run, they might have a chance if they can tire Prior or get to the bullpen.

A great pitching duel so far. The run manufactured by the Cubs in the first is holding up so far. Both pitchers are around 15 pitches an inning, and both are throwing strikes. Prior's walked two and only struck out three. Pavano's allowed five hits, but only Sosa's double was for extra bases.

Mark Grudzielanek rushes his throw, and the ball sails by Simon to put leadoff man Pierre on base in the third. Steve Lyon thinks Simon should have gotten the error.

Update: A passed ball by Bako puts Pierre on 2nd. Castillo pops up a bunt and Ramirez makes a great diving catch in foul territory. I hate bunting with your #2 hitter this early.

Update: Prior gets out of this jam as well. Marlins are now 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position.

Mark Prior fails to cover the bag at first. Jeff Conine reaches when his high line drive tips off the glove of a leaping Randall Simon.

Update: Prior recovers from the mental error, then in the bottom of the 2nd, strikes out while trying to bunt. Two examples of poor execution by Prior in this game.

Carl gives up a single to Lofton to start the Cubs half of the first.

Update: Baker loves the little ball. He gives away an out early to get Lofton to 2nd. Of course, if Sosa hits a HR, he'll have possibly given away a run.

Update: Sosa doubles to the opposite field to score Lofton. It's 1-0 Cubs with 1 out.

Update: Alou reaches on an infield hit to the SS hole. Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins keeps Sosa from advancing.

Update: Aramis Ramirez and Randall Simon hit hard line drives to the outfield, but both are caught, and Pavano gets out of the inning. You play for one run, you get one run.

Game six is underway. Prior jumps ahead of Pierre 0-2.

Update: Castillo gets a one-out single.

Update: Pudge Rodriguez has an excellent bat and works the walk from Prior. He's in a bit of a pickle early. Men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Cabrera flies out on the first pitch. I never understand why batters swing at the first pitch after a walk. Put the pressure on the pitcher and don't swing until he proves he can throw a strike.

Update: Prior strikes out Derrek Lee to end the inning. Mark throws 18 pitches, 13 for strikes.

Varitek pops one up behind 2nd, and Jeter makes a fine over the shoulder catch to end the game.

The story of the game was David Wells' pitching and the Yankee defense. Johnson, Soriano, Jeter and Boone all made fine plays in the field tonight. Wells seemed to be helped by the long rest. He only gave up four hits and two walks while striking out five.

The Yankees put themselves in the driver seat with this win. They're going back to Yankee Stadium with Pettitte going against Burkett, and the Red Sox are living up to their record of poor performances against lefties in this series. It's looking very good for the Yankees taking the pennant tomorrow.

Red Sox are down by two, Mueller will lead off.

Update: Mueller grounds out to Soriano. Nixon comes to the plate.

Update: Nixon nubs one to Boone. A good throw gets him. It's up to Varitek.

After the Yankees got an insurance run in the 8th, Todd Walker leads off the bottom of the inning with a triple against Rivera. Garciaparra drives him in with a ground out. Boston's 0 for 5 with men in scoring position.

Update: That's the first run Rivera has had charged to him in the post season since the 7th game of the 2001 World Series.

Update: Ortiz singles with two out to bring the tying run to the plate in the person of Keven Millar. Millar is 3 for 9 with a HR vs. Rivera.

Update: Millar grounds out to Jeter to end the inning. The Red Sox will have to send the bottom of their order up in the ninth. Fortunately for them, Nixon and Varitek have been a lot of the offense in this series so far.

Nice comeback by Wells. He falls behind Nixon 3-0 to start the 7th, then comes back to strike him out.

Lowe gets through the 7th inning. He's allowed three runs, five hits and three walks. He's basically in the same position Mussina was last night, having pitched well enough to win but not getting the support. He's thrown 103 pitches; we'll see if he comes out for the 8th.

If this game should end like this, I wonder what Lowe will say to the press?

The Yankees just finished batting in the 6th inning. As of this point in game five, no one in the Yankees lineup right now is batting over .250 in the series. Five of the nine are below the Mendoza line. Expect for the 2nd inning, Lowe is pitching a great game.

An error by Soriano started off the inning, but with a man on first and one out, Soriano ranges far to his right and makes a great play to force the runner at 2nd.

Update: And the play is even bigger as Walker singles to right. 1st and 2nd, two out for Nomar.

Update: Nomar walks for the 2nd time in the game! Manny up with the bases loaded.

Update: Manny Ramirez grounds out on an 1-0 pitch to end the 5th inning. A great opportunity goes by the boards for the Red Sox. They are now 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position.

Manny Ramirez takes Wells deep leading off the 4th. It's 3-1 Yankees.

Matsui and Boone reach on bad throws by Red Sox fielders. Walker had to go to his right and threw wide of the bag to miss Matsui. Mueller was deep at third on Boone, and his throw pulled Millar off the bag. Millar missed the tag on both plays. Mueller has made two poor plays at third, and they both went for hits. Walker tried to make a tough play, and was given an error. Go figure.

Update: Soriano strikes out to end the inning. It's still three nothing Yankees.

Trot Nixon did a good Don Baylor impression, turning his shoulder into a pitch to get on base. Varitek follows with a single through the SS hole to put men on 1st and 2nd with none out.

Update: Nice play by Johnson. Damon hits the ball down the first base line and Nick grabs the in-between hop to make the play at first. 2nd and 3rd with one out now.

Update: Short fly to left, Matsui comes in, avoids a collision with Jeter and makes the play. Runners hold. Matsui was in a perfect position to make the throw home. A great fundamental outfielder.

Update: Wells strikes out Nomar on a 3-2 count. Good defense (for a change) by the Yankees helps Wells out of that jam.

Both Lowe and Wells are not exactly sharp today. 19 of Lowe's 45 pitches have been called balls, and 10 of Wells 22 pitches have been called balls. If that keeps up, Wells will join Lowe in giving up runs.

Bill Mueller bobbles a tough play, loading the bases in the 2nd for the Yankees. Karim Garcia is up. Nice situation for him to get some revenge.

Update: Garcia singles up the middle to drive in two. Soriano follows with another to drive in the third run of the inning. Luck going the Yankees way today.

Update: Jeter grounds out to end the inning. I heard Epstein on the radio saying that the Red Sox were due to bat around; the Yankees sent eight men to the plate that inning, so they almost got there first.

That's a combination I didn't think I'd see. In his career, Garciaparra had walked twice against Wells in 58 AB.

Manny grounds out to shortstop to end the inning. Wells through 13 pitches, but 7 for balls. Lowe threw only 7 pitches in total in the first inning.

Johnny Damon breaks his bat, and the barrel went flying at Wells. Wells refrained from tossing it at Damon as Soriano made the play for the first out. :-)

The game is underway. Soriano flies out right on the first pitch.

Update: An easy 1-2-3 inning for Lowe. Good start for the Red Sox.

The Cubs lost their first match point on Sunday, but get to try again today Mark Prior takes on Carl Pavano of the Marlins in Chicago. Prior was the only starter in the first two games of this series to do well against the wind blowing out of Wrigley. It wasn't his most dominant outing (he only struck out 5 in seven innings) but it was just what the Cubs needed. As for Pavano, I laid out the case against him yesterday. Prior is well rested; Pavano is going to have to throw the game of his life to beat him. If I were a Cubs fan, I'd have a bottle of champange on hand, but I wouldn't tell anyone about it. :-)

The early afternoon game pits David Wells against Derek Lowe in Boston. Wells supposedly hurt himself climbing out of the dugout on Saturday. I don't know if the injury will effect Wells or not, but Andy Pettitte has had four days off. Why not start Pettitte today and Wells tomorrow? Pettitte is 6-2 at Fenway with a 2.92 ERA for his career. And Wells loves to pitch in Yankee Stadium. The injury gives Torre the excuse he needs. We'll see if he goes for it.

Derek Lowe will be working on normal rest; he was clearly fatigued in his last start. After Wakefield, the Yankees should be happy to see someone who throws the ball farily straight. :-) Lowe has an amazing home-road split this year; including the playoffs, he's 11-2 at home with a 3.01 ERA; on the road his ERA balloons to 6.17, making his 6-7 record away all the more improbable.

If Wells goes, I'll give the edge to the Red Sox in this game. If Pettitte makes a last minute start, it's still 50-50. This looks to me like it will come down to game 7 Thursday, and I doubt the Yankees fans are going to greet Martinez with open arms.

Soriano strikes out to end the game. Twenty-two strikeouts total in the game, as Mussina, Wakefield and the Red Sox bullpen put on a show. Wakefield bent but he didn't break; the Yankees were 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position. Mussina made power mistakes; the Sox were 0 for 1 with runners in scoring position. A great game, and should restore the faith of some people after Saturday's fracas.

Scott Williamson is on for the save in the 9th against the bottom of the Yankees order. He's struck out Johnson, but pinch hitter Ruben Sierra hits a HR to bring the Yankees within one.

Update: Dellucci strikes out. It's up to Soriano.

Update: Two pitches outside, two swings and misses by Soriano.

Jeff Nelson is in. This should be fun. His first pitch is inside to Nomar, and Grady Little comes out, although it's not clear to me what he's talking about. May be something about Nelson's motion.

Update: They just checked Nelson's belt and glove. Little's just being an ass.

Update: Nelson induces a DP to end the inning. Grady's head game doesn't work. Last chance for the bombers.

Jason Giambi draws a walk to lead off the 8th.

Update: That will be it for Wakefield. Another great start out of him. He goes seven+ with eight strikeouts. He did walk four, and is responsible for Giambi at first. Mike Timlin is on in relief. Timlin has not allowed a run in the post season.

Update: Bernie Williams hits a shot to deep center, but Damon runs it down.

Update: Posada taps one to first, advancing Giambi. Two outs for Matsui.

Update: Matsui strikes out for the third time tonight. Sox lead 3-1 in the middle of the 9th. Timlin now has nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 post-season innings.

The lower part of the Yankees order is having a really rough time with Wakefield. Posada, Matsui and Johnson have all struck out twice, and Aaron Boone looks like he's about to go down on strikes for the 2nd time.

Update: Boone goes down swinging. The 5, 6, 7 and 8 hitters for the Yankees have all struck out twice.

Trot Nixon gives the Red Sox the lead with a HR to straight-away centerfield. Sox lead 2-1 in the fifth. Looks like they don't need men in scoring position to score.

Update: 20 of the Red Sox 29 runs this post season have scored by way of the home run.

Correction: I originally had Millar. It was Nixon who hit the HR.

Derek Jeter just singled to drive in the tying run. But with a bit of luck, the hard grounder hits third base, dribbles away and Jeter gets a double out of it. If it doesn't hit the bag, Mueller probably gets the ball and the Yankees have the bases loaded instead of 2nd and 3rd with a run in.

Update: Wakefield walks Bernie Williams for the 2nd time in the game. Bases loaded with two outs for Posada, who has struck out twice.

Update: Posada flies out to left to end the inning. Yankees are 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Boston has not had a runner there yet.

Yankees have two solid singles in a row with one out against Wakefield. Seems to early and he has thrown two few pitches to be tiring.

Todd Walker breaks the tie with a HR into the right field stands. It's his fifth of the post-season. He's slugging .963 in the playoffs.

Wakefield has thrown 21 ball, 34 strikes for 55 pitches!

Kevin Millar makes his 2nd terrific play of the game at 1st on a hard grounder off the bat of Nick Johnson. The game is going to the bottom of the 4th tied at 0.

One thing I have to say in praise of the umpires is that they are calling the high strike, especially on Wakefield's knuckle balls. Good to see.

Mussina just painted the plate on Damon. He hit the outside corner twice, then came back to hit the inside corner to strike out Damon looking. He has five strikeouts through three innings, and 28 of his 42 pitches have been for strikes.

The Red Sox run into another DP after a strikeout. At least they didn't do it in the first inning today, but they did go at their first opportunity. Mirabelli follows with a single. Oops.

Trot Nixon gets the first hit for the Red Sox leading off the third. He singles to right.

Wakefield hits Dellucci in the elbow to start the 3rd. The benches do not empty.

Update: Three pop ups after the HBP. The knuckle ball seems to have the Yankees off balance again.

Aaron Boone just made a great play at third on Manny Ramirez. It a wonder Torre would start anyone else at the position.

Update: Mussina just let a ball roll foul that he could have fielded and gotten Ortiz at first. I think what happened was that the ball took a funny bounce, and it threw Mussina's timing off. Mussina comes back and strikes out Oritz; no harm, no foul.

Update: Mussina gets two K of his own. Six up and six down for the Sox, and Mussina looks sharp.

Wakefield seems to have found his knuckleball in the 2nd inning. He struck out the first two batters and got Boone on a fly to left to end the inning. He needed only 13 pitches to complete that inning.

Musina retires the side in order in the first. He throws 15 pitches, 11 for strikes. There were a couple of hard hit fly balls, but they stayed in the park and were caught.

The game has started with Wakefield on the mound. He walks Soriano to start the game. The knuckle ball is not sinking so far.

Update: Giambi lines into a double play after a Jeter single puts men on first and second. A bit of luck for the Red Sox. Wakefield doesn't seem to be fooling anyone tonight.

Update: Williams walks to put men on 1st and 2nd again. In game 1 Tim was throwing strikes. Today, he doesn't seem to have much control over the pitch.

Update: Wakefield strikes out Posada looking to end the inning. He threw 11 of 20 pitches for balls, and the Yankees seem perfectly willing to wait for him to come over the plate. I don't know how many times I've seen Soriano take five straight pitches. :-)

Edward Cossette at Bambino's Curse seems a little too upset about the goings on Saturday:

I walked around in a funk all day yesterday, depressed, out of sorts, empty, and had there been no rain I wouldn't have watched a pitch of the game nor peeked in to check the score. And I don't say this because I was trying to prove a point or otherwise boycott Red Sox baseball. I say it because yesterday I honestly had no interest.

But what about today, after a cleansing rain, after some time to heal, after the apologies and the tears and the fines and the gag order?

I don't know. I really don't. All day yesterday I was telling people that something "broke" inside me after Saturday's disaster at Fenway, but now I realize that is the wrong metaphor. It isn't that something inside me broke but rather that I was awakened to or otherwise forced to acknowledge how I, as a fan, as a Red Sox fan in particular, need to better scrutinize my own relationship with the game of the baseball.

And under the light of scrutiny I realize I need to drop baseball down a few notches on my priority list. It is just a game. And I don't want to fall down the slippery slope of believing "I live for this," when it's the other way around: "It lives for me." The game of baseball is supposed to be about "betterment," about, as I wrote yesterday, transcending the quotidian existence of birth, school, work, death.

What happened Saturday was pretty minor in the annals baseball brawls. It was nothing compared to the Yankees-Red Sox fights of the 70's.

Bill Lee was pitching the next time there was a brawl at home plate. To his eternal sorrow. The brawl ended with a torn ligament in Lee’s pitching shoulder. He was disabled for nearly two months, and his fastball was never quite the same again.

This one occurred during the Red Sox’s first trip to Yankee Stadium in 1976, when Lou Piniella tried to score from second on Dwight Evans’ arm and was out by 10 feet. The only thing he could do was try to knock the ball out of [Carlton] Fisk’s glove. Or kick it out.. In the tangle of arms and legs, he kicked Fisk instead.

Whereupon Fisk decided to tag him a second time just to make sure. On the head. Hard.

Out streamed the players from both benches. Bill Lee, who had been backing up the plate, was grabbed, spun around, and belted in the head from behind by Mickey Rivers. As Lee was trying to clear his head, [Graig] Nettles picked him up and threw him down on his shoulder. When Lee got up, holding his pitching arm, he realized that his season was probably over. "You sonofabitch!" he screamed at Nettles. "How could you do this to me? How could you be such an asshole?"

By way of explanation, Nettles belted him flush in the eye, knocking him down and giving him a shiner to go with his crippled arm.

Saturday's theather was nothing like that. Sure it was ugly, and everytime something like that happens people gnash their teeth and rend their clothing wondering why it happens and what can be done about it. And nothing ever is done about it.

The problem is, you have extremely competitive people in a high stakes game under the pressure of media and fans, and sometimes they snap. Let's face it, Pedro doesn't like to lose. And when he was losing Saturday to the one team Boston wants to beat more than any other, his emotions got the best of him and he threw at Garcia. So it escalated until everyone got it out of his system, and now they can go back to playing baseball. The teammates who were phycially hurt were hurt from their own stupidity. In terms of making me like or dislike the game, this was a blip on the radar screen.

I would suggest what is really bothering people like Edward is that there was a shift of virtue from the Red Sox to the Yankees Saturday. It's been going on for a while, but Saturday the fault line moved. When it was Nettles and Jackson and Rivers against Lynn and Fisk and Lee, it was easy to see the Yankees as the evil team that deserved to be vanquished by the Red Sox. But on Saturday, it was Pedro and Manny who caused the trouble. Here they were in game the Red Sox had to win, and their antics came close to having them thrown out. Up until Zimmer charged Pedro, the Yankees did nothing wrong. Someone watching a baseball game for the first time would come away from Saturday thinking the Red Sox are a bunch of evil jerks and the Yankees were just defending themselves.

And that I think is what's bothering Edward. Red Sox fans no longer have the high ground; they are no longer the nice losers who are worth rooting for. Their stars are jerks, and the team they hate is in control. People who have based the allegiance on the virtuousness of the Sox have a lot to think about today. I'm not surprised they don't want to watch the game.

Update: I should have read this first, but Irina Paley basically agrees with me.

The rainout has caused us to miss the much anticipated Wells-Burkett matchup. Both those starters will be skipped in favor of the pitchers originally scheduled for Monday, Mussina and Wakefield. These two hooked up in game 1, where Wakefield kept the Yankees off balance for six innings. Mussina was not sharp at all giving up eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. Mussina thought the extra rest hurt him, which is why he's going today. The Red Sox were simply happy to skip their weakest starter.

I don't really think this changes the dynamics of the series at all. If it goes seven, Burkett will have to pitch one game. If anything, it probably helps Wells by giving him more time to rest. If Lowe goes tomorrow, he'll be going on four days rest; he probably could have used another day.

Fenway has been good to Mussina. Among active players with 93 innings pitches at the Back Bay ballpark, Mussina has the third best ERA, 3.05 (Pedro and Lowe are 1 & 2). He has a 10-5 record there. Wakefield, on the other hand, has a 48-46 record at Fenway, with a 4.30 ERA.

I don't think Mussina will make another poor start. The question for me is, will Wakefield's knuckle ball be working? If so I expect a very low scoring game.

Enjoy!

The Marlins have decided to start Carl Pavano in tomorrow night's game against the Cubs:

''There's nothing wrong with Penny,'' McKeon said. ''It's just a decision. Pavano matches up good against the Cubs, and he's pitched extremely good against the Cubs. And we talked to the coaches and we decided this is the way we're going to go.''

Well, despite the grammer, I don't buy that Pavano matches up well against the Cubs. He made one start against them this year. It was in Wrigley, and he lost a quality start. He allowed one run over seven innings, matching Kerry Wood, but Sosa hit a two run homer off him in the eighth. He left after that, and the Marlins lost the game 5-1. For his career, combined regular and post-season, he's 1-3 against the Cubs with a 4.01 ERA.

If you look at how he matches up against the Cubs hitters, you see the sample size is very small. But Lofton and Grudzielanek get on base against Pavano, and Sammy is 5 for 11 with 2 HR vs. Carl. And that's exactly how the Cubs offense is supposed to work.

Another thing working against Pavano is his home-road split. Combined regular and post-season, he's 10-4 at Pro Player with a 3.36 ERA; he's 4-9 with a 5.40 ERA away.

I don't think Pavano matches up against the Cubs any better or worse than any other non-Beckett pitcher on the team. But Penny is shell shocked, and they need someone to start. What the Marlins really need to hope is that the wind is blowing in, and they can beat Prior in a low scoring game.

According to his article on MLB.com, the rainout yesterday will result in the following:

Tickets for Sunday's game will be honored Tuesday afternoon at Fenway Park. Only tickets for Game 5 will be honored on Monday.

So make sure you're using the correct tickets if you are going to the game tonight.

I don't know how the Red Sox will resolve the ticket situation. But if anyone ends up with a ticket for Tuesday's game that they can't use, I will be interested. Write me.

The Yankees-Red Sox game has been rained out. They'll play tomorrow night as scheduled, and at 4:15 on Tuesday.

Joe Buck had some speculation as to who would pitch, suggesting that Burkett would be skipped and Wakefield will pitch tomorrow and Lowe on Tuesday. That has to be a positive for the Red Sox.

Meanwhile, I'm going to use the evening off to relax.

A gutsy game by Josh Beckett. A complete game 2-hit shutout. Beckett struck out 11, walked 1 and threw 80 of 115 pitches for strikes.

The Marlins still have a long way to go. They'll have to come back against the best Chicago can dish up, Prior and Wood. The Marlins have not announced an official starter for game six. Stay tuned, it should be fun.

Beckett comes out to finish the game, and gets Lofton to pop up. One out.

Update: Grudzielanek grounds out to 2nd. Sosa up.

It's the Marlins turn to power their way to runs today. Jeff Conine reaches the left field stands with a solo shot in the 8th. That's 17 total bases for the Fish today, and they lead 4-0 in the 8th.

Beckett is through the 8th, and he has 11 K. He's spread them out, striking out everyone of the starters except (not surprisingly) Randall Simon.

Ivan Rodriguez pulled the ball that time and drove a HR over the left-field wall. Even better than a triple! The Marlins lead 3-0 in the bottom of the 7th.

Mike Lowell takes Carlos Zambrano deep in the 5th inning to give the Marlins a 2-0 lead. The Marlins really worked Zambrano well; he threw 112 pitches through five and is now out of the game in favor of Dave Veres.

Meanwhile, Beckett has been near perfect, allowing just a hit and a walk through six innings while striking out 8. If he can keep that up for three more innings, the Fish are going to swim upstream to Chicago.

Josh Beckett has struck out the first batter in each of the first three innings. He has four in the game already.

I thought it was interesting to see how the outfield was playing Ivan Rodriguez in the first inning. He popped a ball foul down the left field line, and Alou had no chance to reach it. The Cubs are playing Ivan to go the other way. Sure enough, he flies out of Sosa in deep right. You wonder if he should try pulling the ball down the line. Might be an easy triple.

Cubs go 1-2-3 in the first inning. According to the broadcast, it's the first time the Cubs have failed to score in the first inning in this series.

The game gets started at 4:40. Damn the NFL! Lofton strikes out swinging at an outside pitch.

The Cubs are advance to their first World Series since 1945 with a win today in Miami. They'll send Carlos Zambrano to face Josh Beckett in a rematch of game 1. Neither pitcher fared well in that game. Zambrano has not had a good start since Sept. 14th. In his last four starts (regular and post-season), he has an 8.02 ERA.

For Beckett, the last start was more of an anomaly. He hadn't had a bad start since 8/12, when he gave up four runs in six innings to the Dodgers. Beckett performed much better at Pro Player during the regular season, with a 7-3 record vs. 2-5 on the road, and an ERA almost a run lower.

This is the Marlins best chance for a win in the next three games. I don't expect them to pack it in; my feeling is Beckett will rebound and pitch a good game. Luckily for Zambrano, there's no pressure on him. He can just challenge hitters and see what happens. It's triple match point for the Cubs, so they can afford to be aggressive.

The pitching matchup in Boston this evening will never get the hype of yesterday's, but it's interesting nonetheless. Lefty (and Zimmer look-a-like) David Wells take the mound against the bowler, John Burkett. Unlike yesterday, we might expect this matchup to be a slugfest in terms of offense. Wells has had his problems with the Red Sox over the years, posting a 14-20 record with a 4.96 ERA. At Fenway, his record is better (10-10), but his ERA is worse (5.05). This season, he did pitch well in two starts at Fenway, posting a 2.19 ERA, but he had his worst outing in terms of control there, walking five on July 25th. Wells walked 20 batters all year, and nine of them came against the Red Sox. Watch for the Varitek-Wells matchup. Jason is hitting .302 career vs. Wells with four HR in 43 AB.

John Burkett is 0-6 vs. the Yankees in the regular season, but 1-0 in the playoffs. The first time he ever faced the Yankees was in the 1996 Division Series when he was a starter for the Texas Rangers. He pitched a complete game, allowing only two runs. (It's the only post-season game the Rangers have ever won; they are 1-9 vs. the Yankees.) Interestingly, his only other good start against the Yankees was his last, on July 26th of this year. He went 5 2/3 shutout innings in that one.

Looking at the matchups vs. Burkett, it's hard to find a Yankee who doesn't hit him well. Posada is one who's had the most trouble; he's 0 for 10 with 1 walk. Giambi doesn't have much of an average against Burkett (8 for 35), but four of his hits have been home runs.

So you have two pitchers who are historically bad against their opponent, but had some success this year. I think most of the heavy hitting will be done with the bats tonight.

Enjoy!

The Bloviator asks:

The Red Sox hitters blew more than a few chances: for the second game in a row, the Sox suffered the humiliation of a momentum-killing, first-inning, Backwards-K Strike-'em-Out/Throw-'em-Out Double Play (any SABRmatricians know when the last time a team suffered first inning strike-out/throw-out double plays in consecutive playoff games?).

Okay, I looked it up. I looked at individual series, rather than games that cross over series because it was a lot easier. As far as I can tell, it's never happend in consecutive games in a series before. In fact, it hasn't happened twice in a series before. That is, this is the first time that a team has been the victim of a K/CS DP twice in the first inning in a playoff series.

Rick Morrissey seems to be in a state of shock.

How did we get to this point? I mean that sincerely. How is it that these Chicago Cubs are on the verge of their first World Series since 1945 when less than three months ago, they were one game under .500 and 5{ games out of first place?

I don't ask for the sake of recounting the strategy that went into getting the Cubs from there to here or for the purpose of describing Dusty Baker's magical touch with this team. I don't even ask out of amazement, though there is lots of that.

I ask out of guilt.

How is it that we find ourselves with that rarest of Chicago commodities, real hope, when so many people who went before us got stuck with the College of Coaches, Brock-for-Broglio, the Lee Elia tirade and Mel Rojas? Why did we survive to see this when all the Chicagoans who have gone to their reward didn't get the chance? What exactly did we do to deserve this crazy, wonderful bedtime story?

When you least expect it, expect it.

He finishes:

All those years of futility are about to fade away. You can call that statement foolhardy and say it's insanity to count a chicken before it's hatched in Chicago, but Prior and Wood are looming like float balloons at a parade. The World Series beckons.

Here the Cubs are, flirting with more success than an 88-victory team has a right to aspire to. But all it means is that the Cubs are doing exactly what their fans have thought they would do every year since 1945, when the club lost in seven games to Detroit.

They kept thinking this was the year, and if it wasn't going to be that year, it certainly would be the year after that. Saturday night, thousands of those fans showed up, an army in blue, to witness in person the unfolding of a miracle.

I remember when blue meant "depressed."

Three teams have come back from being down 3-1 in LCS play since the format moved to best of seven. The 1985 Royals, the 1986 Red Sox, and the 1996 Braves. Three times in 21 chances. The chickens may not be counted, but they are sure breaking through the shells.

Greg Cote of the Miami Herald pens a column extremely critical of the Marlins pitching staff:

The outlook is all the more bleak because the Marlins' strength has suddenly become its weakness.

Pitching again.

The Marlins' staff is not walking the walk.

It is walking the batter.

It is walking the plank.

The Cubs have put themselves in an excellent position to win the 2003 NLCS. It's hard to imagine them not winning one more game with Prior and Wood on the mound in games 6 and 7.

The Cubs offense really has to be commended in this series. They continue to hit for power. Including tonight's game, they have a .592 team slugging percentage. The record for an LCS series is .575 by the 1969 Mets. Their 93 total bases are 6th in LCS history; the record is 118 by the 1996 Braves. Their 33 runs scored are also 6th in LCS history; the 1996 Braves had 44.

It was the Cubs pitching that got them here, but it's their offense that is propelling them forward.

Based on their play tonight, the Cubs acquisitions from the Pirates have to be some of the best transactions of the season. Aramis Ramirez has three hits, two HR and six RBI tonight. Lofton has set the table, walking twice and scoring two runs. Cubs lead 8-2 in the 7th, and it's getting very late for the Marlins.

As bad as Willis was (2 1/3 innings, six earned runs), Matt Clement has been great. He's only allowed 1 hit through three innings and has thrown only 33 pitches. With a 6-0 lead, he can afford to challenge hitters the rest of the night.

Willis is in trouble again in the 3rd. A walk and two singles makes the score 5-0.

Dontrelle Willis pitched a 1-2-3 second inning. The question is can he hold the Cubs long enough for the Marlins go come back against Clement?

Dontrelle Willis is wild in the first inning. He walked three out of the first four batters to load the bases. He got a pitch over to Aramis Ramirez, and Ramirez got the pitch over the left field fence for a grand slam. The Fish are following a tough loss last night with a tough first inning tonight.

A huge loss for the Red Sox. It's one of those games that the Yankees could afford to lose but the Red Sox could not. The Red Sox are now faced with beating the full Yankees rotation three times. It won't be easy.

Also, I think some of the luster came off that franchise today. The Yankees are seen outside NY as the evil team, but today:

• Pedro threw behind Karim Garica and hit him.


• Manny Ramirez nearly caused a brawl on a perfectly reasonable pitch by Clemens.


• Pedro beat up an old man.


• A Boston fan jumped into the bullpen and injured right-fielder Karim Garcia.

As my lovely wife Marilyn said, "They're acting like New Yorkers."

I have no doubt the Yankees are very upset right now. As I said in my previous post, you don't want to give the Yankees a reason to beat you. It hard enough to win against them when they're neutral. The Red Sox are in trouble.

Correction: It appears that it was a member of the grounds crew, not a fan, that got into the altercation in the bullpen. I 'll resevre judgement on who started what there until I get more information.

I'm back. Did I miss anything? :-)

Actually, had a good time watching the game with a bunch of partisan Red Sox fans. It seemed to me at the end of the first that Pedro wasn't right. The Yankees were making contact; all four batters put wood on the ball. Pedro did not have a strikeout. That's unusual.

It was also obvious that Roger was just overpumped in the first. He wasn't pitching badly, he was just overthrowing. He got hit, but by the time Ortiz came up he was hitting the corners, and setting Manny in motion got Roger out of the inning. He now has five strikeouts and no walks.

Meanwhile, the Yankees kept hitting Pedro. Of all people, Karim Garcia drove in the first run with a single. Jeter's HR made the fans in the monster seats turn around and look to see where it landed. And then a walk and two hits leading off the fourth gave the Yankees the 3-2 lead.

And then Pedro hit Garcia.

I think the pitch got away from Pedro, simply because it's too stupid a move to intentionally go after Karim. But it's fired the Yankees up. And Pedro beating up a senior citizen is going to fire them up even more (even though it looked like Zim deserved it). The Yankees now have a reason to really want to defeat the Sox. As an opponent, I would not want to give the Yankees a reason to want to crush me.

And by the way, I really think Manny should have been thrown out of the game for his antics. Clemens pitch was only close to Manny's head in Manny's mind. And he pushed the umpire after the ump tried to stop Ramirez from heading to the mound. I thought that was an automatic ejection. Not for a superstar, I guess.

All the action seems to have helped Pedro. He's thrown a perfect fifth and sixth, striking out the side in the sixth. Barry Bonds once said that he wanted the opposition to hate him, so they'd be thinking about the hate instead of thinking about how to get Barry out. Right now, the Yankees hate may causing them not to approach Pedro correctly.

It's 4-2 Yankees in the bottom of the sixth, one out and two on. Back to the party!

It's the game of the Century! (Of course, the century is only in its third year.) One for the ages! It's the Faceoff at Fenway! The Battle in the Back Bay! The Clash near Kenmore! The Sortie Under the Citgo Sign!

Actually, it's not like Pedro and Clemens have never faced each other before. They've faced off four times, all with Clemens as a Yankee. Pedro is 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA; Clemens is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. They've had two great battles, and two that fizzled early.

The first time they met was in the 1999 ALCS. It was billed as a "Heck of a Show."

Babe Ruth pitched at Fenway Park in the World Series. So did Christy Mathewson, Bob Gibson and Grover Cleveland Alexander.

And still, this might be the most fascinating matchup ever at the 87-year-old ballpark.

Roger Clemens vs. Pedro Martinez.

"I just hope it lives up to that hype," New York Yankees manager Joe Torre said Friday, a day before Game 3 of the AL Championship Series. "I have a sense it will."

It didn't. Clemens gave up five runs in two innings and was out of the game after one batter in the third. The Red Sox went on to an easy 13-1 victory, their only one of that series.

They next met on 5/28/2000, and this game did live up to the hype. In was the ESPN Sunday night game. Both went nine innings, Clemens striking out 13 and Pedro 9. But Trot Nixon hit a two-run HR in the top of the ninth to give the Red Sox a 2-0 victory.

They met again a couple of weeks later on June 14th, but the matchup fizzled when Clemens had to leave after one inning due to a groin injury. Ramiro Mendoza pitched well in relief, and Jason Grimsley picked up the win when Tim Wakefield gave up a HR to the other Martinez (Tino) in the 8th. Final, 2-1.

Their last meeting was on April 14, 2001, and this time both pitched well. Clemens last six and gave up two runs. Pedro went seven, also allowing two runs. Again, it fell to the bullpens to win or lose the game, and this time, Pete Schourek of the Red Sox gave up a ninth inning HR to Alfonso Soriano to break the tie. Yankees won 3-2.

So Pedro's pitched great four times, Roger twice fizzled. If you go by the pattern, it should be a fizzle day for Roger. :-)

Overall, the Yankees have hung tough against Pedro. Pedro's record against them is 10-8 (regular and post season), with a 2.76 ERA. A 2.76 ERA is very low for a 10-8 record. In 24 starts against the New Yorkers, Pedro has a 1.50 ERA in the 10 wins, a 4.44 ERA in his 8 losses, and a 2.86 ERA in six no-decisions. So Pedro could have won a few more of these games, had the Yankees not pitched well themselves.

The rest should help Clemens, also. Since joining the Yankees, he's 8-3 when he's had six days of rest or more.

I think this game is going to be great. It's a perfect autumn day in New England. The crowd is going to electric. This really is Clemens last game in Boston, and he's going to want to go out in style. Whoever makes the mistake loses.

The Cubs and Marlins continue their series this evening. Last night's game was good news and bad news for the Marlins; bad because they lost, but good because now they know that Kerry Wood isn't invincible. A win would have put them in a position to finish the series in Miami, with their 1-2 starters going against Chicago's 3-4 starters.

Matt Clement takes the mound today against The D-Train, Dontrelle Willis. Clement did not pitch well in his start in the division series, giving up eight hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings. Willis didn't do much better; in his start, he last 5 1/3, giving up five hits and 2 walks and five earned runs.

Also note that Willis has the highest post-season batting average on the Marlins. He's 3 for 3 so far, and one of the hits was a triple. Bobby Brown of the Yankees was 3 for 3 in the 1947 World Series; it's the most AB in a post-season with a 1.000 batting average.

Neither pitcher finished the season that strongly, so I really don't expect a pitchers duel tonight. This is a must win game for the Marlins. They have to win the next two so they go back to Chicago only needing one win against Prior or Wood. If the Cubs beat Willis today, things will look hopeless for the Fish.

Bad way to end the game. Lee hits a grounder to the third baseman Ramirez, but Aramis bobbles the ball. Lee would have been safe, but Castillo wanders too far off 2nd and gets caught in a run down to end the inning and the game. Cubs lead the series 2-1.

The Marlins really let one get away here. With a win tonight, there was a good chance that the series was not going back to Chicago. The Cubs have the home field advantage back, but the Marlins will send their two best pitchers in games four and five.

Lefty Remlinger is left in to face righty Derrek Lee with Castillo on 2nd and two out. Is it the right move?

Doug Glanville drives the ball into the outfield to score Lofton from first as Conine dives and the ball rolls by him to the wall. Cubs lead 5-4 in the 11th.

Update: Cubs just get the one run. To the bottom of the 11th.

Urbina sets the Cubs down in order again. To the bottom of the tenth.

Juan Pierre leads off the bottom of the ninth with a bunt single.

Update: Castillo lays down the fifth sacrifice bunt of the game, the third for the Marlins. Pierre on 2nd, and they are walking Ivan Rodriguez.

Update: Derrek Lee swings at the first pitch and flies out to center.

Update: Pierre steals third. Don't know why.

Update: Borowski pitches very carefully to Cabrera and walks him to load the bases. It's up to Mike Mordecai.

Update: Mordecai swings at the first pitch and flies out to center. Why, after a walk, do batters insist on swinging at the first pitch? Make the pitcher prove he can throw a strike. To the 10th inning.

Urbina gets the Cubs in order in the ninth. Marlins need a run to win.

Miguel Cabrera leads off with a single up the middle.

Update: Mordecai pinch hits and sacrifices. That's the fourth sac of the game.

Update: Conine hits it hard but right at the CF. Two outs and a man on 2nd for the Marlins Alex Gonzalez as Borowski comes in. Gonzalez is 2 for 3 with a double, a run and an RBI.

Update: Hollandsworth pinch hits and gets his 2nd hit of the series in as many AB. He drives in Cabrera to tie the game at four. Lowell flies out to end it. To the top of the 9th!

Tom Goodwin triples to deep right center with one out.

Update: Randall Simon, in on the double switch, homers to right to take back the lead for the Cubs! It's his first post-season HR.

The Marlins Alex Gonzalez leads off with a single. Mike Lowell is up due to the double switch.

Update: Actually, it was a triple switch as Cabrera moved to right.

Update: Wood walks Lowell.

Update: Pierre lays down a perfect bunt, tying run at third with one out.

Update: Castillo, down 0-2, fights back and grounds to 2nd to tie the game. Go ahead run on third for I-Rod.

Update: I-Rod singles in Lowell. Another go-ahead RBI. He now has 12 RBI in the post season.

Update: That's it for Kerry Wood. He threw a great game; 109 pitches, 76 for strikes, 7 K in 6 2/3 innings.

Update: Farnsworth strikes out Derrek Lee to end the inning. Marlins lead 3-2 after 7.

Redman runs out of gas with two out in the 7th. Fox comes in with two on and walks the first batter to load the bases.

Update: Fox strikes out Karros to end the inning. Cubs still lead 2-1. The game has gone 9 1/2 innings without a score.

The Cubs give Redman a break in the 6th and go out on five pitches. That should give Mark at last one more inning.

With two outs, two walks and a single load the bases for Ivan Rodriguez.

Update: Pudge strikes out on three pitches. Cubs still up 2-1 after five.

Mark Redman has thrown 99 pitches through five innings. At this rate, he has about one more inning left in him.

Kerry Wood continues to be very economical in his pitches. He's thrown only 39 though three innings, 29 for strikes. He has not walked a batter and has struck out three. At this rate, he may get his third complete game of the year vs. the Marlins.

Cabrera, Conine and Gonzalez all make contact, and good things happen. Two singles are followed by a double by Florida's Alex Gonzalez, his first hit of the series. Redman bounces out to end the inning.

Mark Redman is wild. After giving up a single, he walks Gonzalez and Miller to load the bases. Seventeen of his 35 pitches have been balls.

Update: Kerry Wood sac fly makes the score 2-0. It's his 3rd RBI of the post season. He's only allowed three runs this post season.

Update: After a single by Lofton, the Cubs leave the bases loaded. Redman was lucky to get out of that inning with only one run allowed. He's thrown 46 pitches through two innings, only 25 for strikes.

Wood strikes out Pierre to start the game.

Update: Wood retires the side in order. He throws only 11 pitches, 8 for strikes. No sign of early wildness.

The game is underway. Lofton reaches on an error (or a bad bounce) by Derrek Lee. Redman looks like he hurt himself covering first. It appears Lofton hit him in the face with his shoulder. It didn't look intentional.

Update: Redman has shook it off and is staying in the game.

Update: They gave Lofton a hit on the Lee misplay. Dusty Baker has Grudzielanek bunt Lofton over to second, wasting an out. They don't walk Sosa, and he hits the left field wall with a single to drive in Lofton. It's 1-0 Cubs.

Update: Castillo ranges behind the bag to start a fantastic double play. Dusty plays for one run and that's all he gets.

My dear friend Jim Storer called this afternoon wondering what was going on in the mind of Joe Torre. He had heard that Enrique Wilson would be starting against Pedro Martinez in tomorrow's ALCS game 3. This article seems to confirm that:

The Yankees plan on using Enrique Wilson in the starting lineup on Saturday. Oddly enough, Wilson has hit Martinez well, going 10-for-20 in his career against him.

"All I can explain is it's just a freak of nature," said Little. "The best thing we could come up with it's we're going to tell Jason Varitek tell Enrique 'one pitch is coming and it's coming right down the middle' and we'll hope he'll overswing and pop the ball up."

If you count the post-season, Wilson is actually 10 for 21 against Pedro in his career. Jim's question was should Torre start a bad hitter like Wilson against a great pitcher like Pedro based on such a small sample size?

My answer was, it depends. Basically I think it's luck. But if it could be shown that hitters like Wilson do something that is effective against Pedro, I'd say go ahead.

What could that be? The theory I proposed to Jim was that Wilson is a hacker who makes contact (a bad Randall Simon was the term I used). He doesn't walk, and he doesn't strike out. Pedro is always around the strike zone, so Wilson has something to hit. And Wilson doesn't try to pull everything, because he can't.

Is there any evidence to support this theory? If you look at the top five hitters in terms of batting averge, they are Marquis Grissom, Wilson, Greg Jefferies, Luis Gonzalez and Bip Roberts. What they all have in common is that they don't strike out much. Only Gonzalez really draws a lot of walks. They are basically hackers who make contact a lot. (And the other four are much better hitters than Wilson ever was.)

I remember Pedro in 1999 had a very good year against the Yankees. He made three starts (including one in the post-season in which he struck out 11 in 7 innings, 17 in 9 innings and 12 in 7 innings. I remember the Yankees as a team were taking these big swings at what he throwing, and he made them look ridiculous. I wondered why they didn't choke up and just try to meet the ball, put it in play, because they were getting nowhere fast trying to kill his pitches. Pedro was 3-0 against them that year.

So Wilson just might be the right hitter to face Pedro. I still think it's mostly luck, and if Pedro threw his pitches in the dirt, Enrique would swing and miss. But if they are near the strike zone, Wilson will make contact, and when you do that, anything can happen.

Update: This is another example that good pitching stops good hitting, but it doesn't stop bad hitting. :-)

Alysse Minkoff does her best to lift the curses and hexes placed on the Cubs and Red Sox. Warning: non-explict bathtub pictures included! I hope Edward Cossette is paying attention.

A Phillies Phan tells why he's rooting for the Cubs.

This article had an intriguing headline:

Marlins' plan: Use speed against Wood

I saw that on Google News and thought I could write a nice post on how to use speed you have to get on base first yada, yada, yada. But then I read the article. Guess whose plan it is for the Marlins to use speed:

Chicago manager Dusty Baker said because Pro Player Stadium is bigger than Wrigley Field, the team with more speed has an advantage.

"And the Marlins have more speed than we have," Baker said. "They've got more speed than anybody in the world."

Thanks, Dusty. I would have thought it was conflict of interest to manage two teams at once. What is the Marlins plan?

First baseman Derrek Lee said the Marlins' plan for Wood is simple -- don't miss.

"He has stuff that you don't see on an everyday basis," Lee said. "He throws 95, 96 (mph), great curveball, great slider, his fastball just explodes on you. When you have that kind of stuff you're going to be good. Even on his bad days he's going to be good."

Yes! Make contact. Don't swing wildly. Be selective!

So my question is, do the people who write the headlines actually read the articles?

The focus of the day shifts back to the National League where the Cubs will send right hander Kerry Wood to the mound to face lefty Mark Redman. Don't expect to see the offensive fireworks of the the first two games tonight. The advanatages should be with the pitchers.

Kerry Wood has never lost to the Marlins. He pitched two complete games against Florida this year (he had four on the season), allowing just one run and five hits in 18 innings while striking out 20. For his career, he's 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in five starts versus the Marlins.

Luis Castillo might be the key at the top of the order. He's four for twelve vs. Wood with three walks. It will be interesting to see if the Marlins allow Wood to be wild. Kerry will walk people if you are selective. Of course, with his great stuff, it doesn't mean you can hit him if he eventually comes over the plate, but at least you increase the odds.

Mark Redman is a lefty, and the Cubs did not do well when lefties started against them, going 18-20. Redman has made one start against the Cubs in his career, and it was this year. He pitched seven strong innings, striking out nine and allowing no runs. Mark has performed much better at Pro Player than on the road this year; his ERA is 2.88 at home, 4.27 on the road. The Marlins staff as a whole seems well suited to this ballpark. While the offense scored five more runs in home game than road games, the defense allowed over 100 fewer runs at home than on the road!

The matchup to watch is Redman against hot hitter Alex Gonzalez of the Cubs. Alex is 0 for 8 with 4 K against Redman in his career.

I don't think this is an automatic win for the Cubs. I suspect it will be a tight contest, and neither starter may be around for the final decision. Enjoy!

Nice wrap-up article on game 2 of the ALCS by Buster Olney over at ESPN.com. Things like this make me like Grady Little:

This was it, this was the moment for Boston in Game 2, and Kapler stepped to the plate. Pettitte figured he would try to bunt; the Red Sox had runners at first and second, nobody out, big hitters to follow. Little had no such thought. "We didn't get to this point where we are right now by moving runners that early in the ballgame," he said. "We're not going to start now."

Right on! Go for the big inning and bury the other team. It didn't work out that time, but it probably works out more often than not.

Sean Kirst pens as article about the oldest man in the US, who is also a Red Sox fan.

Rivera strikes out McCarty to seal the 6-2 win for the Yankees. Pettitte gets the job done again, and you wonder if starting Lowe in this game was a good idea. The Red Sox, however, should be happy with a split, and they're headed for Boston for the Clemens-Martinez show down.

Mariano Rivera is on to pitch the ninth and it's not a save situation!

Update: Varitek grounds out to Soriano.

Update: Nixon strikes out. Rivera has thrown 7 pitches, all strikes.

Update: Yankees crowd is chanting, "We want Pedro!"

Update: Todd Walker singles to left to keep the inning alive.

Jose Contreras stays in to pitch the eighth and gets the 4-5-6 hitters in order. In 2 1/3 innings in the playoffs so far, he's allowed 1 hit and struck out four. Have the Yankees found their setup man?

Derek Lowe runs out of gas with two out in the 7th. He gives up a 3-2 single to Giambi then walks Bernie Williams. Sauerbeck is on to pitch to Posada.

Lowe pitched okay. He gave up seven hits and three walks, and threw 61 of 98 pitches for strikes. Given how much he's pitched lately, it could have been a lot worse.

Update: Posada doubles from the right side to deep left-center. He drives in two to make the score 6-2, and make Lowe's line look a lot worse.

Pettite has finished the 6th inning, and he's thown 104 pitches. Rivera is ready to pitch two innings tonight. Pettitte's out for the top of the 7th, and the Yankees hope he can get through this inning.

Update: With two out, Mueller singles to right. That's it for Pettitte. The middle relief only has to get one out to get to Rivera.

Update: Contreras is in to face Garciaparra.

Update: Contreras does his job, Garciaparra pops up on the first pitch. Stretch time in the Bronx.

Jason Varitek takes Pettitte deep in the 6th to cut the Yankees lead to 4-2. He hit the HR right handed. He slugged .610 against lefty pitchers this year, .470 against righties. Ten of his twenty five HR came against LHP, in only 136 AB. Two of his three HR this post season have come against LHP.

Lowe strikes out Soriano with a man on third and one out. He's 0 for 7 now with four K. He needs to choke up a little and make contact. (Or stop swining at pitches outside of the strikezone.)

Andy Pettitte strikes out Damian Jackson to end the Red Sox half of the 4th inning. It's only his 2nd K of the game, making me think he's still not quite right. Pettitte averaged 7.8 K per 9 this year. He does seem to be finding his stride, however, as he's not allowed a hit in the last two innings.

The Yankees seem to be getting the measure of Derek Lowe. Unlike last night, they are making good contact. A dribbler by Jeter is followed by solid hits by Giambi and Williams to score a run. Now Posada hits a liner to Jackson, who drops it trying to take it out of his glove too soon for a double play.

Matsui forces the runner at third. Bases loaded and two out. Yankees up 3-1.

Update: Lowe gets out of it. But the announcers noticed that he's stretching out his shoulder after each pitch, which I'll take as a bad sign. He's averaging about 16 pitches per inning so far, but no telling how long he'll last.

Nick Johnson breaks his slump with a two-run HR into the right field stands. He gets the Yankees crowd back into the game.

Derek Lowe just walked Posada leading off the 2nd. It's the 2nd walk he's allowed, and the Yankees might be smart to wait him out to see if he can consistently throw strikes.

The first two batters in the 2nd get solid hits off Pettitte. No problems with the defense this time. First and third with no one out.

Update: Damian Jackson bloops one into center to score Varitek from third. 1st and 2nd and none out.

Update: Pettitte gets Kapler to ground to Jeter for a double play. Pettitte may get out of this with minimal damage.

Update: Great play by Boone on a slow roller gets Pettitte out of the inning with just one run scored. At least someone can play defense.

Soriano strikes out to start the Yankees offense. He is now 0 for 5 in the LCS with three strikeouts.

Pettitte walks Ortiz, but gets Millar to pop up to Jeter. Once again, a double play saves Pettitte from otherwise bad defense. Pettitte wasn't that sharp, however, with 11 of his 22 pitches being called for balls. Going to the bottom of the first with no score.

First Jeter, now Soriano gets to show he can't play the middle of the infield. The official scorer gave Manny Ramirez a hit on that, but a good second baseman makes that play. The DP looms large now.

It's not the way Pettitte usually induces a double play, but the strike'm out/throw'm out DP has the same effect. The DP's and the pickoffs are one reason Pettitte can absorb a higher OBA allowed than most pitchers.

Kapler leads off with an infield single off Pettitte. It was a play in the whole that a great shortstop would have made (or at least, it would have been a close play at first). Jeter didn't get the throw off.

Mike Nadel wonders if it's the Marlins pitching going cold, or Sammy Sosa getting hot. He does make one mistake in the article, however:

We're still waiting to see the fine Florida pitching we've been told about. Among the missing: "two guys who are gonna be in the same category as Prior and Wood," which is how Marlins manager Jack McKeon describes Josh Beckett and Brad Penny.

So far in the National League Championship Series, Beckett and Penny have resembled Mark Prior and Kerry Wood the same way my wife and I resemble Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck.

A good way to upset your wife is to tell the world she doesn't look like J-Lo. He should have followed that with "My wife is much prettier."

I have a reader who is a Red Sox fan, and she has a client who is a Mets fan. They are wondering if Mets fans are natural Red Sox fans because of their mutual hatred of the Yankees. Any Mets fans wish to comment? I've turned comments on.

The Cubs have already hit seven HR in this LCS. The record for a team in an LCS is 10, set by the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays and tied by the 1996 NY Yankees. The NL record is held by the 1984 Cubs. They hit nine in five games against the Padres. Cubs fans have to hope that setting a new record doesn't end in a loss this time.

Game 2 in the Bronx tonight. Derek Lowe faces Andy Pettitte. Lowe has been the go to guy so far in the post season for the Red Sox. He lost game 1 after walking the house, but came back with a strong start in game three and the key save in game five. But this will be the third time in nine days he's pitched on two days rest or less. If this keeps working, maybe a new position will develop; the starter-short reliever. If starters can be used for an inning in the middle of their rest, teams would no longer have to carry 11 or 12 pitchers. Lowe has pitched a lot lately, and I wonder how effective he'll be.

Lowe was 2-0 against the Yankees this year, but he did not pitch well in his starts. He gave up 32 hits in 24 1/3 innings for a 5.55 ERA. Still, Boston managed to win 3 of those four games.

Matsui hit Lowe well this year, going six for eleven against him with two doubles and six RBI. Giambi has 3 HR against Lowe in 29 AB on 8 hits and 8 walks.

Andy Pettitte has had a good career against the Red Sox. Combined regular and post-season, Pettitte is 14-5 with a 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. Like Lowe, Pettitte had a good record against the Sox this year (3-1) despite having a high ERA (5.04). However, Pettitte's ERA comes from one bad start on 9/5 where he gave up 8 ER in 2 1/3 innings. It was his only really bad start since the middle of June.

Ramirez, Ortiz, Garciaparra and Varitek all hit Pettitte well. Manny is hitting .418 against Andy with a .716 slugging percentage (regular and post-season). We'll get a feel for how Pettitte is doing early as he goes through the heart of the Boston order the first time.

It's a must win game for the Yankees. They have to take advantage of the Red Sox weakness against lefties. They don't want to be down 2-0 facing a rested Pedro.

Jeff Miller of the Miami Herald describes last night's game as a nightmare.

Now, the National League Championship Series is tied 1-1, knotted up by a nightmare. That's what this game was, a cold-sweat, shivering-under-the-sheets bad, bad dream. The Marlins were buried by Cubs muscle and suffocated by the sound of Cubs love.

Isn't that what happens in nightmares? People see themselves being buried and smothered and the like? Well, that's what happened to the Marlins on Wednesday.

A nightmare? Reliever Michael Tejera threw a pitch -- his first pitch, in fact -- into the Marlins' dugout. Consider how inaccurate that is for a second. The ball, after slipping out of Tejera's hand, missed the strike zone by roughly 70 feet.

Wish I had seen that. Miller also makes a point of how this game didn't fit in with the rest of the playoffs:

Garbage time in baseball is never good. Garbage time in playoff baseball is even worse. And this game had five innings of playing-out-the-string trash. No offense or anything, but if Mike Mordecai enters one of these games, the preference here is that it would be in extra innings, prompted by a series of strategic and intriguing twists. Not because Luis Castillo's aching bones could use the rest.

These baseball playoffs already have featured more held breath than some entire postseasons. The Marlins and Giants alone ESPN-Classiced their way through the first round. But this game belongs with the rest like a penguin belongs up a palm tree.

They can't all be gems. :-)

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune has advice for the Cubs karma police; avoid them.

After last night's win, the Cubs are in a great position to win this series. I guess if you don't expect much from your team, you won't be disappointed.

DirecTV did have a 2nd FX feed last night, they just didn't bother telling anyone.

Once again, the wind was blowing out to center at Wrigley last night. Just shows you how good Prior is that he only allowed 2 earned runs over seven innings.

I don't like to criticize baseball announcers on this site. It's a job that's tougher than it looks, and I top of it I've worked with a number of announcers. But one thing that has bothered my for a while is Joe Buck's use of the term popup. To me, a popup is a ball that is hit very high and caught on the infield or just behind. Often, I hear Buck say someone popped up the ball, only to see it caught on the warning track. To me that's a deep fly ball.

But watching the game last night, I think I now understand why Buck call hits that way. He's calling it on the swing, not on the flight of the ball. Of course, hitters are so strong today that a poor swing can send the ball a long way.

Buck's calls pointed out something very important about last night's game; the Yankees were totally off balance. They were swinging under the knuckle balls, not getting good wood on anything. Against Wakefield, they put 18 balls in play. Half of them were flies or popups. Only one ball was rated as hard hit, and that went as a single.

Wakefield pitched a great game last night. The knuckle ball was moving enough to keep the Yankees off balance, and prevent them from adjusting.

A terrific victory by the Red Sox. Wakefield gave them a great start, and the bullpen didn't blow the game. They pitched well, they hit for power, and they beat the Yankees best starter. And they now have the home field advantage. Red Sox fans are very happy tonight!

The Cubs defeat the Marlins 12-3. Alex Gonzalez of the Cubs had the biggest night, with two HR. Lofton had four hits and Simon three. Prior was good but not great, but this was a night for the offense.

I suspect we'll see fewer runs and HR when the teams play in Florida on Friday. The Marlins have to be happy with a split, but they have to be less happy at having to face Kerry Wood in the next game.

Tim Wakefield gives up only two hits, but walked Giambi and Williams to lead off the 7th. Alan Embree is in to get Posada.

Update: Posada doubles to the opposite field to drive in Giambi. It's 5-1.

Update: There was a disputed HR call earlier. The RF ump called it foul, the home plate ump overruled him. It looked to me (and my wife) that it hit the foul pole. A fan sitting there, however, claimed it hit his friend's hand in foul territory. If the Yankees fall short by a run, expect to hear a lot about this.

A Matsui sac fly makes the score 5-2.

Update: Embree gets Johnson to fly to center to end the inning. Seems like the Yankees have been getting under the ball a lot tonight. I'll have to check tomorrow, but there seem to be a lot of weak fly balls in this game.

Derek Lee breaks up the shut out with a solo HR. It's 11-1 in the 6th. The biggest blowout in LCS history was on 10/17/1996 as the Braves pounded the Cardinals 15-0.

Alex Gonzalez is matching Sammy Sosa in HR. He just hit his 2nd of the series to put the Cubs up 10-0. Sammy homered earlier in the game.

Top of the 6th, two base hits on infield balls to Yankee middle infielders. Soriano ranged behind 2nd base, but couldn't nip the runner. It was a tough play. But then Jeter dived at a ball to his right, and he dived by the ball. Put the ball in play against this defense, and good things will happen.

Mussina is being relieved with two out in the 6th after 104 pitches. Not his best performance.

David Ortiz got his first hit off Mussina tonight, a two run shot in the 4th. Todd Walker and Manny Ramirez added solo shots in the fifth to make it 4-0. Mussina only had one game this year where he gave up three or more HR, allowing four on June 4th.

Tim Wakefield has the Bronx Bombers off balance, allowing just two hits through five.

The Cubs are pounding the Marlins tonight. Penny did not get a batter in the third before we was lifted for Nate Bump. It's 8-0 Cubs in the top of the fifth. Mark Prior has given up some hits, but not two many in a row. He has four strikeouts through five. Not as sharp as he usually is, but he's got a big cushion.

Both the Marlins and the Yankees get two hits in the 2nd. Both are threatening.

Update: Prior gets out of his jam with two strikeouts.

Randall Simon singels with the bases loaded and two outs to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead in the first inning. He's 5 for 13 with four rbi in the playoffs now.

Mussina seems to be a bit wild tonight. I don't have a count, but he doesn't seem to be getting his first pitch over.

Update: Nixon walks on four pitches. Mussina has thrown more balls than strikes now.

Update: After falling behind Mirabelli, Mussina gets him to bounce back to the mound. He's not given up a hit, but he's walked his two for the game.

Florida works Prior a bit, getting him to throw 23 pitches, 15 for strikes. He strikes out two and walks one, and gives up a hit to Derek Lee. No run damage, however.

Tim Wakefield puts the Yankees down in order. Everyone's hitting the ball, but not hard.

The Red Sox put the ball in play, but right at someone. Mussina retires them in order.

Pierre starts this game the same way, grounding out to the 2nd baseman.

The game is underway with Walker grounding out to Soriano. I actually like this lineup without Damon a lot more than the ones they used against Oakland.

DirecTV has the Red Sox-Yankees game on FX, so I can only watch one game! ARRRRRG!

Byung-Hyun Kim and Adrian Brown have been left off the Boston roster for the ALCS in favor of Jeff Suppan and Todd Jones. They must have a lot of confidence in Damon coming back to leave Brown off.

The Sox say Kim is hurt, but I wonder how much his past troubles at Yankee stadium and giving the finger to Boston fans had to do with this.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are going with 15 batters and 10 pitchers, as they drop Chris Hammond for Erick Almonte. Since they don't plan on using anyone but the starters and Rivera, this is a good move.

Game 1 of the ALCS pits Tim Wakefield against Mike Mussina. Giambi vs. Wakefield offers a good example of the versatility of the NY offense. Wakefield shuts Giambi down in the conventional sense. Jason is 13 for 59 against Wakefield, a .220 BA. But he's selective, so he's drawn 10 walks for an okay .329 OBA. And when he has hit Wakefield, he's crushed the ball. Of his 13 hits, he has 4 doubles, a triple and 2 HR. Jeter, Posada and Williams get on well against Wakefield, and Jeter has three HR in 42 AB against him.

The Mike & Manny matchup is similar to Wakefield-Giambi, but with out the walks. Manny is 14 for 73 against Mussina (including the post-season) with seven extra base hits, including four HR. But he only has five walks, making his OBA .244. Mussina has done a good job in his career of shutting down the heart of the Red Sox order; Garciaparra is 13 for 54 against him (.241), while David Ortiz has never had a hit off Mussina in 20 AB, striking out 13 times in the process.

The Marlins try to go two up on the Cubs as they send Brad Penny to face Mark Prior. Penny did not pitch great down the stretch for the Marlins, and it carried over into his Division Series start. Starting 8/21, and including the playoffs, he's posted a 4.87 ERA, allowing 11 HR in 44 1/3 innings. Look for the Alex Gonzalez matchup, as the Cubs Gonzalez is four for nine with three doubles against Penny.

Meanwhile, Prior has been lights out since the start of August. Including the division series, he's 11-1 in his last 12 starts with a 1.47 ERA. He's struck out 102 in 91 2/3 innings in that time; and he's been efficient, averaging 15.5 pitches per inning. This is going to be a tough one for the Marlins to win.

Enjoy, and get your clicker fingers ready!

The Bloviator is upset with Mayor Bloomberg. Seems to me Bloomberg knows what's good for him. :-)

Matt Phelps, another member of the SOMBILLA, contributes this verse:

Ortiz comes alive
Johnny Damon inspires
Sox win in six games

And Jamie Bakum reponds to the pro-Sox poetry with a look at the LCS:

Boston fans lucky
Oakland plays like triple A
Or Sox out in three

Actually, I don't know why Matt Phelps isn't rooting for the Yankees this year. He's a big Shemp Howard fan, and Matsui looks like Shemp!

The 2003 ALCS presents two teams with very versatile offenses. The two teams hit for average; this means if they go up against pitchers with great control, they can still put baserunners on. The get on base; if the pitcher doesn't have good control, they're willing to take pitches and create run scoring situations through walks. They hit for power; if a pitcher is totally shutting them down, one mistake can turn the game around. You saw this last one on Monday night in Oakland with Manny's HR.

The Yankees, however, are more versatile at actually winning games. As noted before, the Red Sox have troubles on the road, going only 42-39. They also don't do well when a left starts against them, going 26-27 on the year. The Yankees, however, played .600 ball whether a lefty or right started against them (they did very well against lefties), and they had the best road record in the American League. The environment of the game matters more to the Red Sox than the Yankees.

And I believe this gives the Yankees an advantage. The Yankees rotation, for example, has Andy Pettitte starting two games in Yankee Stadium, forcing the Red Sox to go against a lefty on the road. The Yankees ability to play well on the road gave them five of the nine games played in Boston this year.

The key for the Red Sox is to put the ball in play against the starters. The porous Yankee defense will give them runs. And runs will force Torre to his suspect middle relief. However, the old men of the Yankees rotation will be very well rested, so I suspect they'll be at the top of their game, and that means lots of strikeouts and few walks. The Sox will have to look to hit the mistakes.

The Red Sox defense isn't much better, so the Yankees would be advised to try to make contact against the Sox pitchers as well. But the real key will be getting seven innings out of the starters, so they can bring in Rivera to finish off the games.

On another note, Clemens-Pedro in game 3 probably means Pedro-Clemens in game 7. I'd love to see the series go seven just for that.

It's going to be a wild one, fasten your seat belts!

Update: Stephen Kramer rightly points out that if the Yankees were 5-4 at Fenway, then the Red Sox were 5-5 at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox were 3-2 when the Yankees started Clemens or Mussina, 2-3 when they started Pettitte or Wells.

George King of the NY Post calls it Christmas in October:

Christmas in October. How else can you describe getting the Red Sox and Yankees in the ALCS? You can't.
Starting tonight at a sold-out and raucous Yankee Stadium the top teams in the American League open a best-of-seven series and that's the way it should be. The Chokeland A's and over-matched Twins are home, leaving the bitter rivals to lift their fans to euphoric heights or break hearts.

"It's like Bird and Magic in the 80s," said Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar.

Only better.

Dan Shaughnessy of the Globe sees a change in the attitude of Boston fans:

This is what it felt like a couple of years ago when things started going right for the New England Patriots. An obvious, game-costing mistake was magically erased in the Foxborough snow, and the tumbling dice kept coming up winners the rest of the winter. Blessed as never before in the "Tuck Rule" win over the Oakland Raiders, the Patriots' boxcar victory train rumbled through Pittsburgh all the way to the city of New Orleans and a Super Bowl championship.

It was then that New England sports fans first started to think like winners. Instead of moaning "why us?" they challenged the gods of the games and asked "why not us?"

Which brings us to the local baseball team -- ever the most important New England sports franchise -- one that for the longest time has embodied frustration, failure, even buffoonery.

The Boston Red Sox tonight begin a best-of-seven series against the New York Yankees for the right to represent the American League in the 2003 World Series, and for a change Sox fans aren't baying at the moon, blaming curses, or expecting something to go wrong. The path to the pennant thus far has been sprinkled with gold dust, the same magic ash that fell on the head and shoulders of Tom Brady and friends in January-February 2002.

"I think they are going to do it this year," says captain Carl Yastrzemski, who has taken the torch from the late Ted Williams as the greatest living Red Sox player. Yaz was around for too many of the near-misses that created the modern-day image of this ball club (Lucy's going to pull the ball away again), and he is here to tell you, "The Yankees aren't that good."

This is great! And the way things have been going this year, I suspect this will be a great series.

And I thought only Boston sports writers did this. Maybe Phil Rogers is in the wrong town:

Perhaps the most disquieting moment of the night for the Cubs came in the ninth inning. Second baseman Mark Grudzielanek lost control of the ball when he tried to tag Pierre on a potential double-play grounder by Castillo. It set up a two-run single by Rodriguez, who finished with five RBIs.

Grudzielanek's error was the Cubs' first of the postseason. You hope they and their manager haven't run out of a magic. They'll need it, even if they have Prior and Kerry Wood.

Rick Morrissey thought it started too easy. He two, seems more worried than he should be about Prior and Wood:

It's Mark Prior on Wednesday night, the sort of thing that should even out the mood swings. And yet, a draining Tuesday night isn't going away. Aside from Kyle Farnsworth, the bullpen fell apart.

"We come back with our two big horses," manager Dusty Baker said of Prior and Kerry Wood, who pitches Friday.

A sentence full of foreshadowing that you expect in a Cubs' playoff story: And it started so well.

Folks, you lost one game, and your best pitchers haven't taken the mound yet! And besides, there is a very good explanation for last night's game that has nothing to do with pitchers or managerial moves; the wind was right.

STATS, Inc. records the wind direction at the start of each game. Here's the average total runs scored for each of the wind directions in 2003:

Direction	Average Runs Per Game	Number of Games
Out to Left	4.33	3
Out to Center	12.27	11
Out to Right	9.77	13
Left to Right	8.50	4
In From Left	7.31	13
In From Center	8.23	13
In From Right	7.78	18
Right to Left	7.00	6

And guess what? Last night's game was coded as "Out to Center." The answer was blowing in the wind.

Jeff Miller of the Miami Herald pays homage to Mike Lowell as a team player, and disparages Jimmy Buffett as a traitor:

No kidding. Mr. Margaritaville, the man who wrote a song entitled Floridays, who called one of his albums A1A, who is a Heat season-ticket holder, wore a Cubs jersey while singing Take Me Out To The Ballgame during the seventh-inning stretch.

''I'm not gonna sell too many albums in Florida this week,'' Buffett joked, before explaining that he has been a long-time follower of this enemy franchise.

So, instead of being one of South Florida's most popular citizens, turns out Buffett is just another guy from South Florida who doesn't care about the Marlins.

Funny thing, though. Based on the way these guys are playing, the way they seem to be sticking all the baseball's face in it, they probably don't care much about Buffett, either.

Let him be a Cubs fans. It's his own damn fault.

The Cubs go 1-2-3 in the 11th. Not the greatest pitching performance by either team, but they sure poured on the offense. The two teams combined to slug .682. Ivan Rodriguez continues his post-season assult with two hits and five RBI.

The Marlins lead the series 1-0, which is important as they see Prior and Wood in the next two games.

Have a good night!

Lowell gets the first ball of the inning hit at him. He bobbled, but made the play with a great catch by Lee.

Update: Miller strikes out.

Mike Lowell is back from his injury with a pinch-hit HR to centerfield. Marlins lead 9-8 in the 11th.

Update: Marlins have two on with 1 out after walking Pudge.

Update: Lee walks to load the bases.

Update: Cabrera lines into a double play to end the inning. Cubs go to the bottom of the 11th.

The Marlins go 1-2-3 in the 10th. Cubs can win it with one swing of the bat. Ramirez, Simon and Gonzalez are scheduled.

Update: Cubs go in order in the 10th. We may be here awhile.

Ugueth U. Urbina is on for the Marlins in the ninth.

Update: Miller grounds out on the first pitch. Cubs need someone to get on so that Sosa can bat.

Update: Lofton doubles. Tying run will come to the plate in the person of Mark Grudzielanek.

Update: Grudz is 0 for 6 with 4 K vs. Urbina.

Update: Grudz grounds out. Sosa 1 for 11 vs. Urbina with 5 K and 1 BB.

Update: I'm a bit surprised they are not walking Sammy here.

Update: Sosa goes deep! We're tied at 8!

Update: Alou flies out to right. Extra-innings next. Ticket holders are getting their money's worth tonight. :-)

Todd Hollandsworth doubles with one out in the ninth. Pierre up with a chance to drive him in.

Update: Pierre walks. Luis Castillo facing Borowski.

Update: Oops! Grudzielanek tries to tag Pierre on a ground ball, bobbles it, and everyone is safe! Umpires are discussing it, but the replay shows the call was correct.

Update: And Pudge is up!

Update: Pudge does it again. Another hit, and another two RBI. A great free agent signing.

Update: Cubs get out of the inning, but go to the bottom of the ninth trailing by 2.

The teams have a combined .719 slugging percentage in this game. Wow.

Alou walks to start off the eighth, but Alex Gonzalez makes a great play, sliding into the hole to nab Alou at 2nd. Two great plays by the Marlins' AG.

Update: The Cubs Alex Gonzalez gets another hit, setting up 1st and 3rd for Tom Goodwin with 2 outs.

Update: Goodwin strikes out. To the ninth tied at 6.

Another scoreless inning for Kyle Farnsworth. He's been dominating out of the pen for the Cubs so far. Looks like his knee is okay.

Damian Miller doubles leading off the 7th. He came in as part of the double switch with Farnsworth. Good move by Dusty.

Update: Lofton bunts Miller to third. I disagree that it's an obvious bunt situation. Lofton is a lefty, and if you let him pull the ball he might end up with a base hit.

Update: Grudz pops out. It's up to Sammy.

Update: Alex Gonzalez makes a great play off a hard hit ball by Sammy Sosa to end the inning. To the eighth tied at 6.

Castillo gets a high hop infield single over Remlinger's head. That sets up Ivan Rodriguez for another big AB. He'll face Kyle Farnsworth. I-Rod is 1 for 3 vs. Farnsworth with a HR.

Update: I-Rod strikesout, 2-3.

Update: Farnsworth strikes out Lee, also. Kyle now has four strike outs in 3 1/3 post-season innings. He's only allowed 1 hit and 1 walk.

Beckett, after four scoreless innings, gives up a HR to Alex S. Gonzalez of the Cubs with Simon on 2nd. It's 6-6 in the 6th. Gonzalez has set a career high in HR in each of his last four seasons.

Cabrera and Encarnacion go back-to-back to give the Marlins a 5-4 lead. Ten hits, 2 doubles, four triples, four HR. Hope you all have the over.

Update: Josh Beckett break the extra-base hit parade with a single.

Ivan Rodriguez goes deep to make the score 4-3. That's 2 HR and 9 RBI in five games for Pudge. Still, all the hits are for extra bases.

Juan Pierre just tripled. It's the fourth of the game. There have been seven hits by the two teams, all for extra bases.

Update: Zambrano walks Castillo. The Marlins 1-2 hitters are now 3-4 getting on base against Zambrano.

Jeff Conine adds to the triple barrage, putting a ball into the right field corner past the slide of Sammy Sosa. With two outs, however, Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins leaves him on base. It's 4-0 Cubs in the middle of the 2nd.

Beckett has given up two triples in this inning. He had only given up two triples all year.

Update: Beckett strikes out Simon, a rare feat.

Update: Alex S. Gonzalez of the Cubs gets a double to make the score 4-0. Conine misplayed the ball, so the double is a gift, but the RBI isn't.

The lefties were 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout. The righties were four for five, and all four hits were for extra bases.

Lofton and Grudzielanek combine for a walk and a triple to take a 1-0 lead. Pierre slipped going back for the ball off Grudzielanek, but I don't think it would have made a difference.

Update: Moises Alou continues his great post season with a two-run, one-out HR. He now has five RBI in six games. And the barrage continues. Aramis Ramirez hits a triple to straight away center. Pierre didn't fall on this one, but it was still over his head and against the wall.

Zambrano falls behind Pierre 2-1.

Update: After getting Pierre, Luis Castillo doubles to give Ivan Rodriguez an RBI opportunity.

Update: Cubs get out of the inning.

Michele wants to know:

Who will be the Bucky Dent of this series and who will be the Mike Torrez?

The Yankees really don't have a regular starter as bad as Bucky Dent was in 1978. He had a .286 OBA and a .317 slugging percentage. Now, it was a different era, but that still wasn't good. I don't think Luis Sojo made the post-season roster. David Dellucci is the best I can do.

As for Mike Torrez, it has long been rumored that Ramiro Mendoza was a Steinbrenner plant, but he was not on the LDS roster. Game 7 of this series right now looks like Pedro against Clemens; could Roger be the reverse Torrez? The ex-Sox that breaks the supposed curse? Would that make Damien Jackson Bucky Dent? Stay tuned.

I'm really sad to see that Fox is scheduling both games tomorrow for the same time. I know they make more money doing it this way. My real problem with this, however, is that it appears there is no way to see the other game. It would be nice, for example, to put the other game on the local Fox Sports Net channel. That way, if Chicago fans are stuck in Boston, they at least have a chance to catch their home team. And people like me can flip back and forth for the best action.

Update: Casey Abell send this link showing the the other game will be on FX. That's good. It's not perfect, but at least we can flip between games.

The Marlins open in Chicago tonight against the Cubs, sending Josh Beckett to the mound against Carlos Zambrano. Beckett is a power pitcher. Among hurlers with 140 IP, Beckett was fifth in the majors with 9.63 K per 9. The Cubs are a very high strikeout team, and Beckett should be able to take advanatage of that.

One other strength Beckett has is that he can get lefties out. Lefties batted about 40 points lower against him, OBA was about 15 points lower, and slugging was about 70 points lower. The are likely to start only two lefties in their lineup, however, Simon and Lofton (Bako might be a third). So that strength is neutralized by the lack of lefties in the Cubs order.

No one on the Cubs has that many AB against Beckett, but Sammy Sosa is 0 for 6 against him with 3 K.

Zambrano did very well against the Marlins this year, allowing only 1 ER in 12 1/3 innings over two starts. However, he did allow 13 hits and five walks; one of the reasons they didn't lead to more runs is that only 1 of the hits was for extra bases, a double.

Zambrano has been extremely effective at keep the table setters off base this year. Opponents #1 slots have a .313 OBA against him; the #2 hitters are at .315. (.333 and .340 are the averages for the NL in 2003). That may be one reason why there have only been eight stolen base attempts against him all year, and only three of those were successful.

Zambrano, like Beckett has not faced the Marlins enough to have any meaningful matchups, but as for who should start at third base tonight, Cabrera is 1 for 4 with two walks against Carlos, while Lowell is 1 for 6 with 3 K.

Enjoy!

In looking at the rotations for the NLCS, I find it very interesting that the top two starters on each club are not facing each other. Beckett and Willis pitch on Tuesday and Saturday; Prior and Wood pitch on Wednesday and Friday. I don't quite understand Willis starting on Saturday. You would think the Marlins would want to start him on Friday so they can bring him back for game 7 on full rest. Also, the Cubs are weak against lefties but there appears to be no way to get four starts by lefties against the Cubs. Given that, however, wouldn't you want your better lefty to start game 7? We'll see if McKeon switches Willis and Redman later in the week.

But this rotation, as set now, gives the Cubs a huge advantage. Proir and Wood look pretty unbeatable right now, so your only chance is to shut down the Cubs offense and wear down those two starters. I think you have a better chance of that with Willis and Beckett than with Redman and Penny. The current set up seems to give the Cubs four wins when Prior and Wood pitch.

Home field advantage helps the Cubs as well. The Cubs were third in the league in ERA this year, the Marlins 7th. But if you look at them on the road (no home park influence), the Cubs were 5th and the Marlins 12th. (Cubs 3.83 overall, 3.89 on the road. The Marlins were 4.04 overall, 4.97 on the road.)

The offenses are pretty even. The Marlins have better averages, but scored only about 25 more runs than Chicago. Defensively they are even with the Cubs a being a little better. I really think it comes down to the pitching rotation, with Prior and Wood easily beating Penny and Redman.

Arnie Pollinger, commissioner of the SOMBILLA, pens this prediction for the Red Sox-Yankees ALCS:

Money and fatness,
A sense of entitlement,
Yankees goin' down.