The Red Sox returned to Fenway early this morning, no fans to greet them:

Most players quickly climbed into cars and drove away, preferring not to reflect any further on the disappointing finish.

Center fielder Coco Crisp did tell reporters that the team put up a good fight and almost pulled off a miracle finish, adding, "there's always next year."

They did put up a good fight. They pulled off an amazing comeback in game five, got a gutsy performance from Beckett and the bullpen in game six, and pitched well enough to win in game 7. They just ran into someone better in Matt Garza. Compared to the way the Cubs went out, the Red Sox played like champions. There's no shame in that.

Matt Garza picks up two of the Rays four wins and takes home the ALCS MVP award. That turned out to be a great trade for the Rays. It helped improve their defense, and Garza pitches them to the pennant. Congratulations to Matt on a great series.

Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays, 2008 American League Champions. There was no in between for them. The were awful for their first ten seasons in the majors, but found a way to turn everything around this year. Unlike the Yankees in 2004 and the Indians in 2007, the Rays didn't bend to the Red Sox, and found a way to win game seven.

Matt Garza pitched a great game, allowing just one run over seven innings for a 1.38 LCS ERA. He struck out and walked three. Maddon then managed the bullpen one batter at a time, working the lefty-righty matchups until he could get to David Price. They held the Red Sox to walks and singles, and a poor slide by Coco Crisp made up for Bartlett's error that started the inning.

Price struck out three of the five batters he faced, walking just one. He gets his first major league save after getting his first major league win in game two.

The Rays offense out hit the Red Sox 6-3, but also picked up three extra base hits to the Red Sox one. What a great story, what a great series. These last three games were a lot of fun to watch, and we can only hope the World Series between the Phillies and Rays will be as good.

Jason Bay leads off against David Price.

Update: I thought Bay swung at the 2-2 pitch. He swung as much as Drew did the previous inning. The count is now 3-2.

Update: Bay walks to bring up Kotsay. The tying run is now at the plate.

Update: Kotsay falls behind 0-2, then evens the count. Price catches him looking, however, at a pitch on the outside corner for Price's second K.

Update: Price is doing a good job getting ahead of hitters. He gets ahead of Varitek 1-2, then strikes him out swinging on a 2-2 pitch. One out to go!

Update: Lowrie pinch hits and grounds out to Iwamura unassisted as he goes for the force at second. The Rays win 3-1 and are going to the World Series!

Hideki Okajima comes out to pitch the eighth. He'll face Iwamura, Upton and Pena.

Update: The Rays go down 1-2-3. The Red Sox will face David Price in the top of the ninth, Boston's last chance to at least tie the game.

Matt Garza comes out for the eighth. I both surprised and happy the Rays are doing this. However, Maddon better have a short leash as Matt is facing the top of the Red Sox order.

Cora hits one right at Bartlett and it took a bad hop for an error. Leadoff man on here in the eighth.

Indeed, Maddon has a short leash as Garza comes out of the game. What a great performance in a must-win game. Nine strikeouts, two walks and two hits over seven innings of work, his only mistake a home run ball to Pedroia in the first.

Update: Dan Wheeler comes into the game, needing six outs for the save. Unless he can induce a double play, he'll face Crisp, Pedroia and Ortiz as the potential tying runs.

Update: Crisp singles to bring Pedroia to the plate with men on first and second.

Update: Pedroia flies out to left to bring up the legend, David Ortiz with a chance to grow that legend even more. That's all for Wheeler.

Update: Howell comes on to try to get Ortiz.

Update: Howell gets ahead of Ortiz 0-2. David takes a couple and fouls one off to even the count at 2-2. He fouls off another then grounds into a force, 4-6. That play was a little close for comfort. If they don't make it, the bases are loaded with one out.

Two down for Youkilis, and the tying run is at first instead of second. The Rays make another pitching change.

Update: The replay shows Crisp went to take out the shortstop instead of sliding for the bag. If he goes for the bag he's safe. Chad Bradford enters the game to pitch to Youkilis.

Update: Youkilis walks on a 3-2 count, bases loaded with two out. The Rays are not making this easy. Bradford leaves, and I believe David Price is coming in. Here's his chance to be the K-Rod of 2008. He'll face J.D. Drew.

Update: Price gets ahead of Drew 0-2. He wastes one outside. Drew checks his swing on pitch four, but gets called out anyway. Price's pitching in that at bat was worth the price of admission for Rays fans.

The good news for the Rays is that Boston will send up the bottom of the order in the ninth.

Willy Aybar goes deep leading off the bottom of the seventh, hitting a 3-2 pitch deep into the leftfield stands. The Rays lead 3-1.

The Rays are winning the extra-base hit contest 3-1 as well. Aybar has two of them, doubling and scoring earlier.

Update: That's it as the Rays take a 3-1 lead to the top of the eighth.

Garza comes out for the seventh. His high pitch total for the year is 116, set against the Red Sox in game 3 of the ALCS. Maddon does not make the Dusty Baker mistake. He has the bullpen in action.

Update: Youkilis pops out but Drew walks. That brings up Bay, who struck out twice so far.

Update: Bay lines a single into left to put men on first and second. Maddon goes out, and he may be making the Grady Little mistake. He talks to Garza and leaves him in the game to face Kotsay.

Update: Kotsay flies out fairly deep to right, allowing Drew to move up to third with two out.

Update: Varitek falls behind 1-2. He swings and misses at a ball in the dirt, and Navarro throws him out at first. The Rays are six outs away from the World Series.

If Tampa Bay ends up winning this game, do you give the series MVP to Garza or Upton?

With one out in the sixth, Pedroia sees about 12 pitches, drawing a walk. That's his third time on tonight. Ortiz is the only other batter to reach base against Garza.

Update: Ortiz works the count to 3-2, then strikes out swinging into a double play as Navarro catches Pedroia stealing. The Rays survive the sixth and still hold a 2-1 lead.

Update: Garza is at 100 pitches. Does he come out for the seventh?

Update: Lester retires the Rays in order in the bottom of the sixth.

The first third of the game belonged to the Red Sox. The second third belonged to the Rays. Who wins the final third likely wins the American League. Lester is at 88 pitches, so he should be good for at least another inning.

Willy Aybar doubles off the wall in the leftfield corner to start the Rays fifth.

Update: Navarro grounds one slowly into the shortstop hole. Aybar holds second, and Cora eats the ball for an infield hit. Two on and none out for Baldelli. It's rare illness vs. rare illness.

Update: Baldelli delivers a single through the shortstop hole, rolling slowly enough to give Aybar time to score from second. The Rays lead 2-1!

Update: Bartlett strikes out. Men on first and second, one down.

Update: Iwamura taps back to Lester, advancing both runners. The Red Sox are pitching to Upton, and he lines out softly to shortstop. The Rays lead 2-1 going to the sixth.

Matt Garza picks up another 1-2-3 inning, his third of the night. He strikes out Cora to end the inning, his seventh of the evening. The Red Sox and Rays remain tied at one halfway through the game.

Garza retires the Red Sox in order in the fourth, picking up his sixth K of the game. At this point I'm wondering if there will be another hit in the game. Both pitchers are throwing twice as many strikes as balls.

Update: There is as Iwamura leads off the bottom of the fourth with a single.

Update: Upton strikes out as he swings over a low pitch. One down.

Update: Pena grounds slowly to Pedroia. He takes a risk trying to get Iwamura at second, and throws to Youkilis for the out. Kevin was shifted over, and his time at first probably came in handy on that play. Two down, Pena at first for Longoria.

Update: Longoria lines a 2-2 pitch into the rightfield corner. Pena, with two outs, was running on contact and just scores as the throw was just up the third base line. The Rays tie the game at one and Longoria is at second for Crawford.

Update: Lester strikes out Crawford to end the fourth. Both pitcher own six strikeouts through four innings and the game is tied at one.

With two out in the top of the third, Garza hits Pedroia. Dustin steals second, but Ortiz strikes out. Garza has his strike out pitch working as he's down five via the K through three innings. Red Sox still lead 1-0.

Update: Lester strikes out two more as he stays perfect through three innings. In addition to his no hitter this year, Lester pitched an eight inning one hitter and a six inning two hitter.

Garza retires the Red Sox in order in the second, striking out two. Jason Varitek worked the count to 3-2 and fouled off a number of pitches before Garza got him looking with a nice curve ball. The Red Sox remain in the lead, 1-0 over the Rays.

Update: Lester remains perfect through two, picking up his second strikeout of the game. He also cuts down on his pitches throwing just 11 in the inning.

Jon Lester retired the Rays in order in the first, striking out Carlos Pena to end the inning. The Rays did make him work a bit as he threw 20 pitches, but 14 were strikes.

Game seven is about to get underway. With switch hitters, the Red Sox have six lefties in the lineup against Garza. Lefties have about the same BA and OBA against Matt, but they do hit for more power than righties. That may be somewhat balanced by Garza's ability to limit extra base hits in Tampa Bay.

Update: Crisp tries to bunt his way on, but Garza throws him out. Angel Hernandez takes over for the injured Derryl Cousins on the umpiring crew.

Pedroia hits a home run down the leftfield line for Boston's first run of the game. So much for Garza keeping the ball in the park and allowing less power to righties.

Update: Ortiz draws a walk but the Rays allow no more runs. They find themselves in a hole going to the bottom of the first, 1-0.

Looks like you can scalp tickets for face value in Tampa Bay for game 7.

We finally get a winner-take-all game in the 2008 post season as the Red Sox and Rays battle in game seven of the ALCS. Jon Lester faces Matt Garza at 8:07 PM EDT, and with luck we'll see the whole game tonight. The bill is a rematch of game three won by Garza and the Rays 9-1. Lester allowed five runs, four earned in 5 2/3 inning in that game. Despite that performance, Jon holds a 1.83 ERA in this post season. He's struck out 18 while walking just five in 19 2/3 innings. Graza's had a problem with control in the playoffs, walking 7 in 12 innings. That's out of line with both his season and his career.

This game should favor the Rays. Garza pitched very well at the Trop this season, posting a 2.89 ERA in home games. Lester, on the other hand, earned a 4.09 ERA on the road this season. Those numbers were in the opposite direction in game three, yet Garza came out on top.

Lester's problems on the road come from right-handed batters pounding him. They're hitting .305. You would think with Lester as a lefty in Fenway, he'd have more trouble with righties there.

Garza does a better job of limiting opponents power at home. Only 18 of the 49 extra base hits against Garza came at the Trop. If he can hold the Red Sox to singles tonight, they will need many more hits to score.

The Rays lead the Red Sox in runs 40-27 in the series. If the Red Sox win, it's likely to be a reversal of the regular season in which the Red Sox had a much bigger run differential than the Rays, yet finished second in the AL East.

I'm expecting a fun game tonight. Enjoy!

George Vecsey notes Joe Maddon's fondness for Gene Mauch and wonders if the Rays skipper will suffer the same fate. Mauch, after all, saw an improbable Boston comeback in game five of the 1986 ALCS, then lost games six and seven.

Mauch, as far as I can tell from listening to stories about him, was a brilliant manager who more than anything suffered from bad luck at crucial moments in his career. He was also, however, a man wedded to a small ball strategy that probably wasn't right for every team he managed. He was probably the last manager who was willing to give up outs early in a game to score a small number of runs. Mauch made progress with teams, but only the Angels won long term for him. He never produced a .600 winning percentage. His best showing was .574 with the 1982 Angels.

Maddon, in that regard, has already exceeded Gene. Maddon also strikes me as a person who is always looking for a better way. He's willing to question his beliefs and tactics and people skills to find something that works. A loss today will teach Joe Maddon something about himself, his team, and how to do better in the future. I don't know if Mauch's various collapses caused Gene to change his approach at all.

Jon Lester doesn't seem to think his troubles in game three mattered:

"You know, I don't know if they approached me any different," Lester said. "I just think that's their approach, to go out and get the fastball early. That's kind of what we've seen all year from them and in the past. I don't think I have to change my game plan."

Maybe he's right, as Lester's game plan worked very well during the regular season. However, if the Rays have adjusted based on their regular season failures against Jon, Lester should be trying to determine how to adjust back.

Joe Maddon's plan to win with Shields in game six failed tonight as the the Red Sox out hit, out pitched, and out fielding the Rays. The game was not as close as the 4-2 score indicated, with Boston a hit away from breaking the game wide open a number of times.

Shields, like Kazmir in game five, ran his pitch count high early, and he tired in the sixth. Francona removed Beckett as soon as he could, handing the ball over to the bullpen for four innings. Okajima, Masterson and Papelbon did not allow a hit, which greatly diminished the chances of a Tampa Bay comeback.

Crisp replacing Ellsbury continues to pay dividends as Coco reached base four times from the leadoff slot tonight, scoring a run along the way. Varitek homered and Ortiz knocked out two more hits as the lackluster Boston offense of four of the first five games appears to have found its groove.

Game seven rematches Garza and Lester from game three. Fenway worked for Lester and against Garza in that game, but Matt won out. The opposite will be true in game seven. We'll see if the game goes according to script or if once again roles are reversed. I can't wait.

The Red Sox go down 1-2-3 in the ninth. The Rays need two runs, with Longoria, Crawford and Aybar due against Jonathan Papelbon.

Update: Longoria grounds out to short. One down.

Update: Crawford strikes out, not even coming close on his two swings.

Update: Aybar gets good wood on the ball, but the line drive goes right into Youkilis's glove, and the Red Sox win 4-2.

The Red Sox get two on but Chad Bradford gets Kevin Youkilis to ground into a double play. Barlett, Iwamura and Upton are due up in the bottom of the eighth. Two of them have homered in this game.

Update: Masterson hits Barlett on a 3-2 pitch, and the Rays get the leadoff man on.

Update: Masterson falls behind Iwamura 2-0, but after a chat with the pitching coach Dustin throws three straight strikes for the K. Upton up.

Update: Pena pops up the first pitch for the third out. The Red Sox are three outs away from forcing a game seven.

It turns out the Red Sox have never lost a game six when they were down 2-3 in a series.

Update: Upton pops out. Masterson hasn't thrown a ball since the visit from the pitching coach.

Howell gets two outs, but a hit Bay winds up at second. That brings in Grant Balfour to face Lowrie.

Update: Balfour lives up to his name and walks Lowrie.

Update: Navaro allows a high 1-2 pitch to get by hime for a passed ball and the Red Sox have runners at 2nd and 3rd for Varitek.

Update: Jason flies out to right and Okajima comes out for another inning.

Update: Three fly balls and three outs for Hideki in the seventh. The Rays are down to six outs to get two runs. Given that the Red Sox put eight more men on than the Rays by a hit, walk or HBP, it's impressive Tampa Bay is only down two.

Hideki Okajima relieves Josh Beckett to start the bottom of the sixth. Beckett was at 78 pitches and throwing well. I'm a bit surprised by this move. It adds the speculation that Beckett is hurt. Francona got him out of the game as soon as possible.

Update: Okajima walks Longoria but that's it. Sox still lead 4-2 going to the seventh inning.

Jason Varitek gets the run back in the top of the sixth with a home run. It's his first hit of the ALCS and the Red Sox are up 3-2. Shields is up over 100 pitches. I wonder if he'll pitch the seventh.

Crisp singles off Shields first, his third hit of the game. He's as hot as Ellsbury was cold. Maddon takes James out of the game.

Update: Howell comes in and induces Pedroia to hit a ground ball to Bartlett. Jason throws it away, and the Red Sox have runners on first and third with two out for Ortiz in the top of the sixth.

Update: Ortiz delivers a single to right-center and the Red Sox lead 4-2. Boston has runners on 1st and 2nd with two out with Youkilis coming up.

Update: Youkilis strikes out swinging to end the inning. The Rays only have four hits this evening, and they only scored because two of them were home runs. They need more batters on base to do more damage with their power.

Dioner Navarro singles leading off the fifth. With one out, however, he's caught stealing on a busted hit and run play. It's the first time in 18 tries that the Boston catcher threw out a Rays stealer (there was a pickoff caught stealing). That's the kind of base running a sabermetrician can love.

The timing of the CS was poor, however, as Jason Bartlett homers to left to tie the game at two. Bartlett hit one home run in the post season, and Beckett has now allowed seven in the playoff this year.

Update: That's all the Rays get. According to the broadcast, Beckett's seven home runs allowed ties a post-season record.

Update: Eric Show in 1984, Scott Garrelts in 1989 andAndy Pettitte in 1996 all allowed seven home runs in a post season.

TBS is blaming router failure in Atlanta for the snafu at the beginning of game 6 that kept the first 20 minutes of the game off the air. Here's why they didn't delay the game:

Major League Baseball spokesman Rich Levin said MLB was unaware there was a problem until the broadcast failed to come on the air. No consideration was given to delaying the start of the game because the starting pitchers already had warmed up, Levin said.

The problem started about 7:45 PM EDT however, because they put on a bloopers show. If TBS had said at that time there were problems, they could have delayed the warmups. TBS screwed up here big time.

J.D. Drew doubles with two out in the fifth, giving him four hits in his last four at bats with a walk mixed in for good measure. The Red Sox can't drive him in, however. Boston still leads 2-1 going to the bottom of the fifth.

The Red Sox and Rays each get a two out single in the fourth, both from players with the initials C.C. Coincidence?

Neither team scores. The Red Sox still lead 2-1 going to the top of the fifth.

Jason Varitek fouls off a pitch that gets Derryl Cousins in the lower part of the mask. It appears he's leaving the game. This isn't the first time this happened to Cousins.

The game is being delayed. Maybe they should replay the first inning we missed.

Update: The Rays are taking the field now, and Tim McCelland will umpire behind home plate. It's 9:34 PM EDT.

A walk to Pedroia, a double by Ortiz and a ground out by Youkilis and the middle of the Red Sox lineup is back in the business of generating offense. Boston takes a 2-1 lead in the top of the third. The two through five hitters collected three hits and two walks so far, and are responsible for both Boston runs.

Update: Walks to Drew and Bay load the bases with two out. The Red Sox have a chance to break the game open with Kotsay at the plate.

Update: Kotsay flies deep to center, but not deep enough as Upton pulls it in. Four batters reach in the inning, but only one scores as the Red Sox take a 2-1 lead in the third.

Kevin Youkilis leads off the second with a home run just over the leftfield wall. That ties the game at one. He has 12 hits this post season, six for extra bases.

Update: Two singles put Red Sox on 1st and 2nd with one out. Drew picked up his third hit in a row but was forced at second for the first out.

Update: Shields gets two fly balls to end the inning with the game tied at one.

Is anyone else seeing a blooper show on TBS right now instead of the pre-game show?

Update: I just talked to DirecTV and it does not appear to be a DirecTV problem. I take it people who have cable can't see the game either?

Update: The game isn't being broadcast, but starts anyway. Coco Crisp bunt singles but gets picked off, and the Red Sox fail to score in the first. I can't believe they didn't delay the start of the game until the problem was fixed.

Update: It appears Upton took Beckett deep in the bottom of the first. The Red Sox radio announcers just said that the catwalk kept it from going 20 rows back.

Update: They're scrolling a message now saying to stand by for the game.

Update: I see the game at 8:28 PM EDT.

Update: They showed the Upton home run. It hit the catwalk and landed in fair territory, but that ball is gone according to the ground rules. Beckett has now allowed six home runs this post season, and Upton has hit six. The Rays lead 1-0 after one inning.

Update: One of the comments indicates a power outage in Atlanta as the cause of the problem. Amazing. ESPN put in a backup generator in the mid 1990s.

The Rays try to win their first American League pennant at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The game starts at 8:07 EDT on TBS. The Red Sox game two starter, Josh Beckett, takes on the Rays game one starters, James Shields. Beckett is in the middle of a rough post season. In two starts so far he allowed 18 hits and 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. Five of those 18 hits went for home runs; Beckett gave up just 18 homers during the regular season. The only positive to point to for Beckett are his 11 strikeouts.

Shields, on the other hand, pitched this post season much like his regular season. In his two starts he allowed a 3.29 ERA versus 3.56 during the regular season. He's struck out 10 and walked three in 13 2/3 innings. He allowed just one home run so far.

Big Game James is also out to get a win in this LCS. He pitched great in game one, allowing just two runs in seven innings. Matsuzaka pitched better however, and Shields took the loss. With Beckett's health in question, Shields has a golden opportunity to wrap the series up tonight. I suspect Joe Maddon won't pull Shields from the game if he's pitching well, unlike what he did with Kazmir.

Enjoy!

Here's more video from Amalie Benjamin in which she reports the Red Sox considered flipping Beckett and Lester in games six and seven.

The Red Sox aren't going to do that, but it seems like a good idea to me. If you really believe right now that Lester is a better pitcher than Beckett, it makes sense to try to get the win against the Rays best pitcher. Of course, if the Red Sox win over Shields, then Lester-Garza (despite game 3) should favor Lester.

It looks like the Rays chance of winning last night came very close to 100%.

Alex Belth quotes Chip Carey, but Chip got the stat wrong:

When Carlos Pena came to bat with runners on first and second and just one out in the top of the inning, Chip Carey said, "Pena's only hit into two double plays all year..."

The kiss of death...Thanks, Skip.

Pena hit into six double plays in 2008. It's still an impressive number, but that's what happens when you rely on Elias for your stats. :-)

Scott Kazmir and the Rays bullpen couldn't have pitched any more differently. Kazmir faced 24 batters, allowing just two hits as he struck out seven. The pen faced 18 batters and allowed 9 hits, striking out just two. Kazmir's inability to go deep into the game cost the Rays tonight. It wasn't until the fifth inning that he became efficient, but he was very close to 100 pitches at that point.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox hitters found their stroke. Crisp reached base three times from the leadoff spot. Ortiz and Drew found their home run strokes. Youkilis and Kotsay contributed important hits.

Down 3-0 in 2004 they came back and won the ALCS. Down 3-1 in 2007 they came back to win the series. In all those games, however, they were never down like this. Eight runs in three innings when they looked like they were about to concede the game. Fans were leaving the park! Papelbon wasn't even able to stop the bleeding. Yet the team fought back again.

It's amazing, it's impressive, it defies the odds. I'll just repeat, wow. It's going to be a fun weekend in Tampa Bay.

J.P. Howell comes in to pitch for the Rays. Bartlett makes a great play as Pedroia hits a ball in the hole, Longoria deflects it, but Bartlett still picks it up and fires to first for the out. Ortiz up.

Update: Ortiz tries to bunt the 1-1 pitch, but it goes foul. David then swings and misses, bringing Youkilis to the plate.

Update: Howell is dropping in some nice curveballs in this inning. Youkilis fouls off a few, then grounds one to third. Longoria makes a nice backhand grab, but throws the ball short of first and the ball takes a big hop into the stands. It's an infield hit and error, and the Rays walks Bay to pitch to Drew.

Update: Howell falls behind Drew 3-0. He takes a strike, then lines a ball over the rightfielder's head to plate the winning run! J.D. Drew wins a place in Boston history, and no one thinks that signing is bad no. Youkilis scores, Drew drives in three, and there will be a game six in Tampa Bay Saturday.

That's one of the best post-season games I've seen. Wow.

Justin Masterson comes on to pitch the ninth, facing Barlett, the number nine hitter.

Update: Barlett lines a 1-2 pitch into left for a single.

Update: That's the first pitch for the bottom of the Rays' order.

Update: Iwamura flies out to left. Upton is up, needing a triple for the cycle.

Update: Upton walks to put the go-ahead run in scoring position for Pena.

Update: Masterson induces the 4-6-3 double play. Pena hit into six during the regular season. The Red Sox send up Pedroia, Ortiz and Youkilis in the bottom of the ninth, just the three they'd want.

Jason Bay leads off and draws a four pitch walk from Dan Wheeler.

Update: J.D. Drew homers to right and makes this a one-run game. The Red Sox comeback legend may get a new chapter tonight. What a game!

Update: Lowrie flies out, and Sean Casey hits for Varitek.

Update: Might Casey has struck out. Two down.

Update: Kotsay doubles to deep left center, just off Upton's glove. On that play it was a game of inches. Crisp up.

Update: I'm surprised Maddon is sticking with Wheeler this long.

Update: Crisp keeps fouling off 3-2 pitches.

Update: Crisp singles to left, driving in Kotsay! Tie game! Gross throws the ball into the ground, and Coco tries to go to second and gets thrown out.

This, of course, sets up the ultimate opponent's nightmare. If the Rays don't score, then David Ortiz may come to the plate with a chance to win the game in the ninth.

Papelbon retires the 6-7-8 hitters for the Rays in order in the eighth. The five through nine hitters for the Rays are 0 for 17 with two walks tonight.

Grant Balfour relieves Scott Kazmir to start the bottom of the seventh. Jed Lowrie doubles off the wall in the rightfield corner to greet Grant. It's only the third hit of the game for Boston.

Update: Varitek flies out to center. He has not picked up a hit in the series.

Update: Kotsay flies out to center, also.

Update: Crisp singles to left, but Lowrie only gets to third. Pedroia is up to try to get a run on the board.

Update: Dustin singles on a 3-2 pitch, a high line drive to right. If the game was on the line, Gross would have tried to dive for it, but he made sure it was just a single. The Rays lead is down to 7-1.

Update: Big Papi gets the crowd cheering for him again as he hits one around the Pesky pole for a three-run homer. That makes the score 7-4 Rays, and Balfour is out of the game. Anything can happen at Fenway, and usually does.

Update: Maddon brings in Wheeler to face Youkilis. The 1-1 pitch almost hits Kevin in the head.

Update: Youkilis flies out to end the inning. Too bad Papelbon couldn't stop the two runs in the top of the inning from scoring, otherwise this would be a one run game. Any Red Sox fans who left early wish they could get back in to Fenway right now.

Manny Delcarmen comes in and walks the first two batters in the seventh, Bartlett and Iwamura. Francona brings in Papelbon! What happens if there's a save situation later in the game? How can a manager possibly use a closer in an important game situation that's not at least in the eighth inning? Francona's going to be drummed out of the by the book managers club. :-)

Update: The Rays execute a double steal. They're not taking this game for granted.

Update: Upton hits a high fly ball that scrapes the wall, hitting the top of the scoreboard. Both runners score as Upton doubles. He's a triple away from the cycle, and the Rays now lead 7-0.

Update: The IBB to Carlos Pena works as Longoria grounds into a double play. Two down with Upton at third.

Update: Papelbon ends the inning, getting Crawford to ground out. It's stretch at Fenway with the Red Sox trailing 7-0. I've seen some great comebacks at Fenway, but this will need to be one of the best.

Kazmir strikes out two more to bring his total to seven after six innings of work. He looks like he's getting stronger, or maybe the Red Sox are just demoralized at this point. He's over 100 pitches at this point, so I'm betting we see the bullpen in the seventh. The Rays still lead 5-0.

Kazmir gets the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the bottom of the fifth, and doesn't throw too many pitches. His total is now 90, so the Rays should be able to get one more inning out of Scott. Tamap Bay leads 5-0.

Matsuzaka walks Iwamura leading off the fifth and that's it for Dice-K. Okajima comes in and strikes out Upton. Pena then bunts against the shift for an infield hit, putting a man in scoring position for Longoria.

Update: Iwamura steals third. Now a long fly scores a run.

Update: Longoria strikes out. It's up to Crawford.

Update: Crawford grounds out, and Okajima works out of the jam. With five times at bat left, the Red Sox trail 5-0.

The Rays still lead 5-0 at the end of four innings. Kazmir is at 83 pitches, meaning he's likely to go one more inning, just enough for a win if the bullpen can hold the lead. He's walked three, hit one, and struck out five, while allowing two hits.

Dice-K is at 75 pitches, but three of his five hits allowed left the park and accounted for all of the Rays runs.

David Ortiz grounds out in the bottom of the third and the fans boo him. Wow. You would think with all the big hits Ortiz collected over the years he'd be the one player cut some slack.

Mark Kotsay and Matsuzaka both make nice plays on a hard grounder by Iwamura. Akinori grounded one hard down the first base line, and Kotsay made a nice dive to stop it. His throw to Dice-K, however, was low, but Matsuzaka stayed with it, reached down, caught it, and tagged the bag for the out. That's three nice plays by the Red Sox so far in this game.

However, the home run ball hurts the Red Sox again. Upton singled, then Carlos Pena connected, sending the ball past the Pesky pole for a 4-0 Rays lead in the top of the third.

This game is going like the Phillies game yesterday, where Philadelphia drew first blood and kept building on the lead.

Update: Longoria follows with a solo shot, and the Rays lead 5-0. That's 19 home runs in 8 1/3 post season games for the Rays.

Update: Floyd strikes out to end the inning. Dice-K didn't allow three home runs in a game all season. Twice he allowed two.

For the second inning in a row, the Red Sox get two on with two out. Kazmir hit Varitek, then gave up a single to Kotsay in the bottom of the second.

Update: Kazmir strikes out Crisp to end the inning. It's another heavy pitch inning for Scott, however, as he's now up to 46 pitches.

Dioner Navarro hits a screaming line drive right back at Matsuzaka's head in the top of the second. He's squared up to the plate, however, and gets his head out of the way and his glove in front of the ball to make the catch. Nice, quick reactions on that play.

Update: Gabe Gross walks with two out. I was afraid there was something wrong with Dice-K, as he hadn't walked anyone yet. :-)

Update: Barlett flies out to end the inning. Still 2-0 Rays.

Coco Crisp does his job and draws a walk leading off the bottom of the first.

Update: Pedroia moves Crisp to second with a ground out, but Ortiz goes down swinging. It's up to Youkilis to keep the inning going.

Update: Kazmir walks Youkilis. Walks continue to be Scott's bane. Jason Bay comes to the plate.

Update: Bay flies out to center. Kazmir throws 21 pitches, however. As long as he keeps walking a high number of batters, he won't be able to go deep in games.

Terry Francona starts Coco Crisp in the leadoff spot tonight. Coco's LCS OBA is .500. He doesn't drop the cold David Ortiz, however. Big Papi is still batting third.

Iwamura starts off the game with a single to right.

Update: Upton hits his sixth home run of the post season, the ball landing right on top of the Green Monster. It took a while for Daisuke Matsuzaka to give up a hit in game 1. He's allowed two to the first two batters and trails 2-0.

Dice-K comes back to strike out Carlos Pena looking.

Update: Matsuzaka gets Longoria and Crawford, but puts the Red Sox in an early 2-0 hole. We'll see if the new top of the lineup can help the Red Sox climb out quickly.

The Rays get three chances to eliminate the Red Sox and tonight they send Scott Kazmir against Daisuke Matsuzaka. Maddon's reasoning for the Kazmir start has to do with bullpen use:

Maddon said he talked about this move even before the series started. Helping him make the decision, he said, was that Wednesday was an off-day, and if a Game 6 is necessary, Friday also is an off-day.

His reasoning is that the bullpen should be fresh, which is important because Kazmir doesn't tend to pitch deep into games.

In two postseason starts, he has lasted a total of 9 2/3 innings.

"We like the fact that he's pitching with an open day following, the ability to utilize the entire bullpen," Madden said. "We also like the idea of him pitching here, and we like the idea of Shields' being able to pitch at home, if necessary.

Again, it's a win in six or seven, not win in five strategy. If Shields were to pitch and lose tonight, and Kazmir pitches badly on Saturday, the bullpen would be blown out for Sunday. This way, if the bullpen needs to pitch four or five innings tonight, they have a day to recover. Kazmir is averaging 4 2/3 innings this post season, and averaged just over five innings a start in September.

Against that is Daisuke Matsuzaka who has been down and up in this post season. The Angels gave him some trouble, scoring three runs in five innings, but he shutout the Rays for seven in game one. Daisuke was much more himself in that game, walking four but allowing just four hits.

It's an 8:07 start on TBS, and it seems to me there's a good chance the Red Sox come out on top in this one.

Enjoy!

Cole Hamels won the NLCS MVP, and very deservedly so. He also says the right things when winning an awad:

"To get an award like this is something surreal. This definitely has to go to the whole team right here. But it's only a stepping stone," Hamels said. "Being in that parade down Broad Street is what we all want. Getting a World Series ring and trophy is what really matters. Getting there is great, but winning it all is the best."

The Phillies held the Dodgers to 20 runs in the series, four runs a game. There was, however, a big difference between Hamels and the rest of the starters. Blanton, Myers and Moyer allowed 14 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings of work, good for an 11.12 ERA. The Phillies offense and bullpen was able to compensate in two of those starts, but Cole allowed the Phillies to win the one low scoring game of the series and make the clinching game easy on the whole team.

The one thing that stands out in Cole's performance this post season is the one home run he allowed, an opposite field shot by Manny Ramirez in game 5. During the regular season, his rate of allowing home runs was 24.6 per 200 innings. He brought that rate down somewhat in August and September, but brought that to the extreme against a good home run hitting club in Milwaukee and a Manny powered team in Los Angeles. He's allowed 9.1 home runs per 200 innings this post season, almost 1/3 of his regular season rate.

Hamels strikes batters out, limits their walks, and now limits their home runs, too. The Phillies defense can take care of the rest, making Hamels a winner and the team National League Champions.

Cole Hamels pitches his third brilliant game of the post season, allowing just one run over seven innings. That's three earned runs in 22 innings for the Phillies ace. He didn't have the strikeouts working tonight, but his defense helped with with two double plays. His only mistake was the home run to Manny Ramirez, a mistake a lot of pitchers make.

Offensively, the heart of the Phillies order got the job done. Utley, Howard and Burrell all hit .300 or better against the Dodgers. Victorino made his hits count as he slugged .500 and Carlos Ruiz did a good job keeping rallies going at the bottom of the order. Of course, Matt Stairs will go down in history with one of the most memorable Philies pinch hits, his game winning homer Monday night.

The Phillies hit better, ran better, fielded better and pitched better. Maybe with both teams on the east coast this year, Fox will start the games a little earlier so school kids can watch them without staying up too late?

The Phillies don't score in the top of the innings. The Dodgers trail 5-1 and send up James Loney, Casey Blake and Matt Kemp.

Update: Brad Lidge comes in to pitch. At least he can't blow a save. :-)

Update: Loney dumps a broken bat single into shallow center. The Dodgers need a few more of those.

Update: Blake flies out to Victorino. One down, one on.

Update: Kemp hits a 2-0 pitch to the wall in straight away center. Victorino catches it for out number two. One out to go.

Update: Nomar Garciaparra pops out to the catcher, Ruiz, in foul territory, and the Phillies win the game 5-1 and the series 4-1. It will be an all east coast World Series as the Phillies await the outcome of the Red Sox and Rays.

The Phillies go down 1-2-3 in the eighth. The top of the Dodgers order is due up in the bottom of the eighth. Given the weakness at the bottom of the Los Angeles lineup, this is the inning they are going to need to score if they're going to send this series back to Philadelphia.

Update: Furcal hits a line drive up the middle on a shattered bat. Chase Utley dives through the air to make the catch. Madson is in the game for Hamels.

Ethier flies out to right for the second out.

Update: Manny gets a ball to bounce over Rollins's glove for a single. Russell Martin get a chance to do some damage.

Update: Martin grounds out to first to end the inning. He's now hitting .118 in the series. His OBA is .318, but he has no extra base hits.

The Dodgers get two on with two out for Jeff Kent in the bottom of the seventh. Hamels strikes him out looking with a pitch on the outside corner. There have been lots of complaints about the strike zone tonight, and it does appear to be a bit wide. The Phillies still lead 5-1 after seven innings. They're six outs away from a trip to the World Series.

Hamels keeps the bases clear for Manny Ramirez as he hits a two-out home run in the bottom of the sixth. That's his fourth home run this post-season and extends his career record to 28. The Dodgers now trail 5-1.

Update: Hamels comes back to strike out Martin and the sixth ends with the Phillies leading 5-1.

Casey Blake and Matt Kemp both single to start the fifth. Blake DeWitt, comes up, hitting .083 in the series.

Update: DeWitt hits into a double play. Torre should have pinch hit for him.

Update: Kent pinch hits for Maddux and strikes out. A great opportunity to score goes by the boards as the bottom of the lineup can't deliver.

Update: Kent stays in the game at second.

Werth singles to lead off the fifth. Loney bobbles a double play ball and gets just the lead runner. That allows Ryan Howard to single and put runners on first and second as Maddux faces Burrell.

Update: Oops. Furcal can't pick up the ball on the backhand, kicks it away, then throws it away. Utley scores and the runners end up at second and third. Maddux induced two double play balls in this inning and only would up with one out from the pair. The Phillies lead 4-0 as Maddux intentionally loads the bases with one out.

Update: Maddux strikes out Feliz. He probably doesn't trust his fielders at this point.

Update: Furcal throw low to first on a Ruiz grounder and Loney can't handle it. What should have been the third out is the fifth run for the Phillies. The game is getting out of hand.

Update: Hamels grounds out to first, but the damage is done. The Dodgers have five innings to score five runs while holding the Phillies scoreless.

Maddux does indeed start the fourth inning for the Dodgers.

Update: Maddux gets a fly ball, then strikes out Hamels and Rollins as he retires the side in order in the fourth. Efficient as ever, Maddux uses just 13 pitches to get through the inning.

Update: The Dodgers go down 1-2-3 as well as Hamels has now allowed 10 hits in 19 post-season innings.

After DeWitt grounds into the double play, he fails to get a tag on Rollins stealing second in the top of the third. Jimmy walked to reach and the throw beat him easily. DeWitt took the throw in front of the bag, and Rollins slid to the back of the bag. Blake could not get the tag around in time to earn the putout.

Update: Utley walks to put men on first and second for Ryan Howard with two out.

Update: Billingsley makes Howard look bad on two fastballs, but hangs a curves that Ryan smacks for an RBI single. The Phillies lead 2-0.

Update: Burrell singles into the gap in right, plating Utley from third. Ryan goes to third on the hit, and the Phillies lead 3-0. Utley moves up to second on a wild pitch.

Update: Victorino walks to load the bases, and once again Chad Billingsley fails to complete the third inning. He puts more pressure on the bullpen and his offense.

Update: Chan Ho Park gets Feliz to ground out to end the inning. Isn't this the point where the Dodgers bring in Greg Maddux and the grizzled veteran pitches one last great game to keep hope alive?

Update: The Dodgers go down 1-2-3 in the third. Hamels now has thrown over twice as many strikes as balls.

Chad Billingsley strikes out two batters in the second, giving up just a single to Feliz. He's already pitching much better than in game two.

Update: Hamels isn't better in the second as two of the first three batters single. Blake DeWitt, however, grounds into a double play to end the inning. Still 1-0 Phillies after two.

Hamels walks Manny Ramirez, but otherwise retires the Dodgers easily. He doesn't strike out a batter however, and throws more balls than strikes. We'll see if that continues.

Jimmy Rollins gets the Phillies off to a good start with a home run off Chad Billingsley to start the game. Billingsley walks the second batter, Jayson Werth. Torre should get the bullpen going early tonight.

Update: Utley grounds into a reverse force double play. The tag play at second hurts Furcal, who the Dodgers can ill afford to lose.

Update: Billingsley gets out of the inning with no more damage. The Phillies draw first blood, leading 1-0 with the Dodgers coming to bat.

The Phillies play triple match point tonight as they face the Dodgers at 8:22 PM EDT, 5:22 PM PDT. Phillies ace Cole Hamels takes the hill against Chad Billingsley, Mr. No Brushback. A win gives the Phillies six days off before the World Series.

Cole Hamels enters the game with two great starts under his belt this post season. In 15 innings, Cole allowed just eight hits and three walks while striking out 17. His two earned runs allowed translates to a 1.20 ERA. He's only pitched once before at Dodger Stadium, but his results were very good.

Chad Billingsley comes off a very rough outing in Philadelphia, but he'll be pitching in a park that was very good to him this season. Chad went 10-4 with a 2.95 ERA at Dodger Stadium. In almost the extra same number of innings home and road, Chad allowed fewer hits, walks and home runs while striking out 23 more batters. He allowed a .219 BA with runners in scoring position during the regular season, something he'll need to approach if he wants to keep the Dodgers hope for a World Series appearance alive.

Enjoy!

Scott Kazmir, not James Shields, starts game five in Boston. Both these pitchers are better home than away, but Shields has the bigger spread. Shields is also the more reliable of the two at this point. Here's my guess as to what Maddon is thinking:

• Both Shields and Kazmir have a decent chance to lose against Matsuzaka in game 5.
• The chance of winning Saturday in Tampa Bay is higher with Shields than with Kazmir.
• Despite the result of game 3, a Lester/Garza matchup still favors Lester.

Maddon is setting things up for a game six win. If Kazmir pitches great in game five and the Rays win, it's a big boost for his future confidence. If he doesn't pitch well and loses, he'd rather have Shields going against Beckett, especially with Beckett not at 100%. He's maximizing the chance of winning in six games, rather than the chance of winning in five.

Update: Here's the math verison.

Probability of Winning (my guess)	Kazmir	Shields
Game 5	0.35	0.5
Game 6	0.5	0.7

Now, let's ask what is the probability of losing both games five and six with these starters. If the Rays use Shields in game 5 and Kazmir in game six, they have a 25% chance of losing both games. If they reverse that, however, the probability of losing two games drops to 19.5%. I'm sure the Rays did a lot more work to estimate these probabilities, but they likely reached a similar conclusion.

The Rays go up 3-1 on the Red Sox, just where Boston was in 2007 at this point. The difference was the Red Sox would return to Fenway if they won game five. Here, they'll need to go on the road and win in Tampa Bay.

In last year's LCS, Beckett, Schilling and Matsuzaka shut down the Indians as Boston won in three romps as Boston won those three by a combined score of 30-5. They send two of those three, flipping Dice-K and Josh, and substituting Lester for Schilling. However, they also have to face three good pitchers in Shields, Kazmir and Garza. Can history repeat itself? The odds are certainly against the Red Sox. They are hurting while the Rays are healthy. I suspect the series will go back to Tampa Bay, but Boston will find it difficult to sweep the Rays at home. If the last four years have taught us anything, however, it's don't count out the Red Sox in the LCS.

The Rays go down 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth. The Red Sox need nine runs to tie as they come to bat in the bottom of the inning.

Update: Sean Casey pinch hits and strikes out looking.

Update: Crisp walks. He does his job in the game, getting on base twice.

Update: Ellsbury pinch hits and walks on four pitches. Edwin Jackson just needs to put the ball over the plate and let his defense help him.

Update: Jackson is taking care of everything this inning as he strikes out Lowrie. It's up to J.D. Drew.

Update: Drew Ks, and the Rays win the game 13-4. They now lead the series three games to one.

Andy Sonnanstine allows a third run in the eighth, and Trever Miller comes on in relief. Sonnanstine gives up six hits and one walk, impressive as he struck out only two batters. The Red Sox were 6 for 26 putting the ball in play against Sonnanstine.

Miller strikes out Ortiz but Youkilis doubles, and Sonnanstine ends up charged with four runs. It's 13-4 Tampa Bay.

Update: Edwin Jackson comes in and strikes out Jason Bay. The Rays go to the ninth with a 13-4 lead.

Carl Crawford drives in Carlos Pena with a triple, Carl's fifth hit of the game. He misses the cycle by a home run, but who knows, the Rays may go through the lineup one more time. :-) It's now 12-2 Rays.

Update: Aybar drives in his fifth run of the game with a single, his fourth hit. Crawford and Aybar are a combined nine for ten with seven RBI and four runs scored.

Navarro grounds into a double play and the Rays take a 13-2 lead into the bottom of the eighth.

Actually, I'm not sure if it's TBS or DirecTV inserting commercials, but I just missed David Ortiz's triple leading off the bottom of the seventh. Youkilis grounds out to plate Big Papi, and the Red Sox cut the Rays lead to 11-2.

Update: Bay singles with one out. Sonnanstine is at 76 pitches, so he shouldn't be tiring yet.

Update: B.J. Upton makes a nice play on a deep fly ball to center by Kotsay, two out.

Update: Crisp walks with two outs. This is Sonnanstine's first tough inning of the game.

Update: He strikes out Cash to end the inning. The Red Sox need to average five runs over the next two innings to win the game.

A Red Sox fan living in New York has a tough time eating his favorite food right now.

Jason Bartlett triples into the right-center gap with one out in the top of the sixth. Six of the nine hits the Rays collected tonight have gone for extra bases, two doubles, a triple and three home runs.

Update: After a walk to Iwamura, Upton singles to drive in Bartlett and the Rays lead 7-1 in the sixth. Joe Maddon is smiling in the dugout.

Update: Carlos Pena walks to load the bases for Longoria. A long Longoria hit would put this game out of reach.

Update: Longoria draws the third walk of the inning on a 3-2 pitch, and the Rays lead 8-1. That's it for Delcarmen.

Update: Javier Lopez comes in to face Carl Crawford with one out and the bases loaded.

Update: Crawford dinks one into shallow left for a single. That increases the lead to 9-1 and leaves the bases loaded for Aybar. Carl is four for four on the night with two doubles.

Update: Aybar singles through the hole at shortstop. Another run, another bases loaded situation, this time for Navarro. Aybar is three for four with four RBI, and the Rays keeping chipping away.

Update: Navarro hits a soft roller to third. Youkilis doesn't have time to throw home, so he gets the Rays catcher at first. Another run scores and the Rays lead 11-1. Two out in the sixth.

Update: Wow. TBS goes to a commerical early and we don't see the last out of the inning. That was very poor. It doesn't matter that much as the Rays lead 11-1 in the middle of the sixth. Still this is Fenway Park, where anything can happen.

Carl Crawford hits the Green Monster for his second double of the game. Willy Aybar drives him in with a single, but gets caught taking too big a turn around first on the relay from the throw home. The Rays extend their lead to 6-1.

Update: Sonnanstine pitches another easy inning in the bottom of the fifth. He's at 58 pitches, 38 for strikes.

The Rays and Red Sox both fail to score in the fourth inning. Sonnanstine is working on a two hitter, having not allowed a walk. He's at 48 pitches through four innings. It's still 5-1 Rays.

The Rays will remove tarps from seats at Tropicana Field to increase seating capacity for games 6 and 7 of the ALCS:

The Rays announced today they will remove the tarps on upper-level seats, making 5,762 more tickets available if the ALCS goes to Game 6. The seats, mostly with obstructed views of the field, haven't been sold for previous games this season.

If you win, they will come. Of course, the way the ALCS is going right now, there may not be a game six.

Kevin Cash puts the Red Sox on the board with a Red Sox home run into the Green Monster seats. That's the first earned run Sonnanstine allowed against the Red Sox this season. That was also Cash's first post-season plate appearance.

Update: That's all the Red Sox get as Sonnanstine retires the next three batters. Andy is working very efficiently, throwing just 34 pitches through three innings. The Rays lead 5-1 at the end of three.

Willy Aybar follows a two-out Crawford single with a home run over the Green Monster seats. That puts the Rays up 5-0. Navarro then doubles off the wall, chasing Tim Wakefield from the game. That's three games in a row in which the Rays hit the Boston starter hard.

Update: Dustin Masterson comes in to face "Columbia" Fernando Perez.

Update: Perez gets caught looking at a pitch on the outside corner to end the inning. The Rays are in control right now, up 5-0.

The Red Sox put runners on first and third thanks to a Longoria error and a Kotsay single. Crisp, however, grounds into a double play to end the second. The Rays still lead 3-0.

Andy Sonnanstine retires the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the first, getting an air out, a strikeout and a ground out. He threw just 11 pitches.

Update: It's just as easy for Wakefield in the top of the second. He retires the Rays 1-2-3, throwing just four pitches.

Tim Wakefield retires Iwamura on a swinging strikeout to start the game against the Rays.

Update: Upton walks on four pitches, then runs on the first pitch to Pena and steals second.

Update: Carlos Pena gets a high knuckleball and drives it the opposite way into the Green Monster seats for a 2-0 lead. Longoria follows with a ball pulled into the same seats for a 3-0 lead. The Rays continue their power barrage against the Red Sox in this series and Tim Wakefield this season.

Crawford doubles down the rightfield line to keep the hits coming.

I believe Longoria's home run breaks the rookie record for home runs in a post season of four, set by Miguel Cabrera in 2003.

Update: Willy Aybar bats righty against the right-handed Wakefield, but strikes out. Crawford moves up to third on the second stolen base of the inning. The Rays are getting to Wakefield in every way possible.

Update: Navarro walks, but Fernando Perez pops out in foul territory to end the inning. The Red Sox come to bat down 3-0.

The Red Sox bench Jacoby Ellsbury and move J.D. Drew into the leadoff spot. Drew posted a .408 OBA in the regular season and so far he's at .400 in the LCS. Crisp will bat seventh and play centerfield.

The Rays lead the Red Sox two games to one as Andy Sonnanstine takes the mound against Tim Wakefield. The Rays are ahead of the Red Sox for the same reason they finished ahead of the White Sox; they are out powering a power team. The lead Boston in slugging percentage .495 to .426. A big reason for that is B.J. Upton. He dropped from 24 homers in 2007 to nine this season due to a shoulder injury. Healthy now, his home run stroke returned in time for the playoffs. Imagine how many games the Rays would have won if Upton showed this kind of power all season.

Sonnanstine is one of the few Rays pitchers who performed as well on the road as at home. He gave up a few more homers away from the Trop, but issued fewer walks. He's a pitcher that allows a good number of batters to put the ball in play, so the improvement in the Rays defense helped Andy's ERA tremendously.

The Red Sox did not score an earned run off Sonnanstine this season, and the two unearned runs were enough to keep him from a decision in two starts. Twice he hooked up in pitching duels with Josh Beckett and twice the Rays won the games late.

Tim Wakefield actually has a pretty poor post season record. He's 5-6 with a 6.36 ERA. The years 1992 and 2003 was the only ones in which he pitched well, and 2003 is remembered for him giving up the Aaron Boone home run.

The Rays handled Wakefield well this season. He walked more (8) than he struck out (7) and allowed a home run every five innings. That was good for an 0-2 record and a 5.87 ERA. Red Sox nation should be very worried about this game.

Enjoy!

Adam Kilgore sums up the changing story lines of the ALCS:

The narrative of a playoff baseball series is severe, see-sawing tensions like a serial novel. The Red Sox won Game 1 of the American League Championship Series - the Rays were too young and too scared; Josh Beckett and Jon Lester loomed; the series was over. The Rays now hold the same one-game advantage - the Red Sox are too old and too injured; Beckett is finished and Lester mortal; the series is over.

These are two good teams fighting tooth and nail. I would not be surprised if the series is over in five games, and would be equally unsurprised if it went seven. We've seen in the play of Longoria, Pedroia and Ellsbury how fast players can go from hot to cold and cold to hot.

Cole Hamels surprised John Gonzalez by predicting a Phillies series win before game four of the NLCS:

Thereafter, in walked Hamels. Normally, he's about as interesting as Andy Reid. When I have trouble sleeping, I play Hamels or Reid on loop and I'm out before I know it. Which is why Hamels' comments surprised me.

He talked about how he didn't think the Phils would have to face Derek Lowe in Game 7, because he didn't think there'd be one. He talked about how the Phils were almost to the World Series. And more than once, he talked about clinching this series. Now this was before the Phils' improbable 7-5 comeback victory yesterday.

Hamels is now in a position to clinch the NL pennant with a win on Wednesday night.

Ken Rosenthal criticizes Joe Torre for lifting Derek Lowe too soon:

Five innings, 74 pitches, Lowe coming off his first 1-2-3 inning.

Yes, Lowe was working on three days rest. Yes, the Dodgers had just taken a 3-2 lead. Yes, Torre could deplete his bullpen with a day off on Tuesday.

But in hindsight, Torre acted too soon.

It seemed Torre was expecting Lowe to fail soon, when there was little evidence of that. Yes, he was giving up hits, but apart from the first he wasn't giving up runs. He was in control, walking just one batter and throwing strikes twice as often as balls. He looked to me that he had found a groove and seemed to have two innings left. There's no use saving him for game seven, since he'll have regular rest anyway.

Now, the Dodgers bullpen is among the best in the business. Torre, however, starts with the inexperienced Kershaw and follows with the unreliable Park. Why not go with Kuo in that spot? He's left-handed and a long reliever. Let him get through the heart of the order, then bring in Kershaw to face the weaker 7-8-9 hitters in the seventh.

Torre left himself with a long road to Broxton. Maybe he should have had someone ready, and pull Lowe at the first sign of trouble. If Derek pitches into the seventh, Joe avoids the back of the pen, and maybe the Dodgers win that game. The more pitchers a manager brings into a game, they more likely he is to bring in one having a bad day.

The Phillies don't score in the top of the ninth, so the Dodgers have three outs to score at least two runs. Berroa, Blake and the pitchers are due up.

Update: Garciaparra pinch hits for Berroa and flies out to center.

Update: Blake goes down swinging. Two outs and Kent pinch hits.

Update: Kent hits it hard, but lines out to third base. Once again, the Phillies power makes the difference as two home runs in the eighth plate four runs, and the Phillies win 7-5. That gives them a 3-1 lead in the series, and they've done an excellent job in this series of hurting the Dodgers pitchers. They came into the series with the best ERA in the National League. The two teams get an extra day off to think about game five. Even if the Dodgers win that one, the Phillies just need a split back home to win the series.

Rafael Furcal draws a walk to lead off the bottom of the eighth, but Andre Ethier grounds into a double play. That brings up Manny Ramirez, with the most damage he can do pulling the Dodgers within one. Nonetheless, Romero comes out and Brad Lidge comes in for the four-out save.

Update: Manny doubles into the left-center gap. It's up to Russell Martin now.

Update: Pretty much everything unusual is happening in this game. Martin strikes out swinging, but the ball gets away from Ruiz and rolls over to the third base dugout. The wild pitch puts runners at first and third with two outs for Loney.

Update: Loney flies out to left, so there's no damage. The Phillies are three outs away from taking a 3-1 lead in the series.

After Ryan Howard leads off the eighth with a single, Cory Wade comes to pitch to Burrell. He gets Pat to pop out to second.

Update: Shane Victorino, however, pulls one into the rightfield bullpen to tie the game at five. Shane only hit 5 of his 14 home runs this season off right-handers.

Update: Ruiz singles with two out. That brings Matt Stairs in to pinch hit and Broxton in from the bullpen.

Update: Matt Stairs smacks the ball deep into the rightfield stands for a 7-5 Phillies lead. You knew that one was gone before he left the batters box. Broxton allowed just two home runs during the regular season in 69 innings pitched.

Update: Rollins walks to bring up Werth.

Update: Rollins steals second, but Werth strikes out to end the inning. The two two-run homers give the Phillies a 7-5 lead in the middle of the eighth.

Hong-Chih Kuo comes in and retires the Phillies in order in the seventh. He strikes out both Werth and Utley swinging. He struck out 96 in 80 innings during the regular season.

"Hanging" Chad Durbin puts one in Casey Blake's wheelhouse as the other Dodgers pickup homers leading off the bottom of the sixth to give Los Angeles a 4-3 lead. Durbin only allowed five home runs during the regular season, and that's the first he's allowed in the playoffs.

Juan Pierre picks up his second hit of the night as he doubles into the left-center gap.

Update: Kemp pinch hits and walks. He's not having a great post season, but that's the third walk he's drawn against the Phillies, raising his LCS OBA over .400.

Update: Wow. Scott Eyre relieves, and Torre decides to sacrifice with Furcal. Given Furcal's OBA, I'd let him hit. He bunts to a drawn in Howard, who decides his only play is at first. He then side-arms the throw, which sails away from Utley covering first. A run scores and the Dodgers have men at second and third, but with none out instead of one. Los Angeles leads 5-3 with Ethier at the plate.

Update: Ethier lines out to first. That brings up Manny Ramirez to draw his second intentional walk of the night.

Update: Chase Utley saves the day. He dives for a Russell Martin line drive, then scoots on all fours to second base to double up Furcal. It could have been a lot worse, but the Dodgers score twice in the inning to take a 5-3 lead at the end of six.

Update: Sorry, Utley stayed low and scooted, but he did it on two legs.

Clayton Kershaw relieves Derek Lowe to start the sixth. Lowe threw just 74 pitches, and the lefty comes in to face Ryan Howard.

Update: Kershaw walks Howard. That brings up Burrell.

Update: Kershaw falls behind Burrell, and Pat pulls a single through the shortstop hole. Victorino comes to the plate with men on first and second. The Dodgers bring the infield in and the Phillies reward them with Victorino laying down a bunt. Pedro Feliz bats for Dobbs with runners on second and third.

Update: Torre stalls for some time, then brings in Chan Ho Park.

Update: Feliz flies out to very shallow right. Ethier almost drops the ball, but Howard was not tagging, so when Andre falls over, Howard can't score. He does a moment later on a wild pitch, and the Phillies and Dodgers are tied at three.

Update: Ruiz walks, ending Blaton's night as Geoff Jenkins pinch hits. Torre counters with Joe Beimel.

Update: Mauel counters with Taguchi, who flies out to shallow right-center. Ethier makes a terrific catch to end the inning. The teams are tied at three in the middle of the sixth.

Rafael Furcal does his job, leading off the fifth inning with a walk.

Update: Andre Ethier dumps a single into short left-center. That brings Manny Ramirez to the plate. Does Manuel walk Ramirez in this situation? He's already walked twice tonight.

Update: They pitch to Manny, and he lines a belt high pitch into left. Bowa tries to stop Furcal at third, but he runs through the sign. Burrell throws home late, Furcal scores and the runners move up. The game is tied at two.

Update: Martin grounds out to short, plating Ethier for a 3-2 Dodgers lead. The announcers think Manny should have gone to third on the play, but it looked to me that Manny might have run into the batted ball if he started right away. By the time he made the decision, it was too late to go.

Update: Blanton gets DeWitt to hit into a twin killing and the Phillies get out of the inning trailing 3-2.

Since the first inning, Lowe and Blanton continue to stay in control The fourth inning ends with no changes as the Phillies still lead 2-1. Blanton leads Lowe 67-62 in pitches thrown. Lowe is also throwing a higher percentage of strikes. Blanton is ahead in the strikeout battle 4-3, while Lowe only walked one batter to Joe's two.

The Dodgers put runners on first and third with two out in the bottom of the third, but DeWitt flies out to left to end the inning. The Phillies still lead 2-1 after three.

Juan Pierre gets his second at bat of the post season and singles to center. They try for a hit and run with Lowe, however, and Pierre gets caught stealing. Lowe then pops one into centerfield that Rollins tries to catch over his shoulder, but drops. They give Lowe a hit.

Update: Furcal flies out to center to end the second inning. The Phillies remain in the lead 2-1.

The Phillies continue to hit Derek Lowe as Greg Dobbs doubles leading off the second inning. Four of the first seven Phillies collected hits.

Update: Nice comeback by Lowe in that inning as he gets a grounder to the box and two strikeouts to prevent any further damage. The Phillies still lead 2-1 in the middle of the second.

Rafael Furcal bunts a ball over the head of Greg Dobbs, drawn in at first base. I'm not sure if that's what he meant to do, but the bunt winds up in the outfield for a single. If he had pushed it a little harder, he might have doubled.

Update: A ground ball moves Furcal to second base with one out, and the Phillies intentionally walk Manny Ramirez. This could really backfire with a big hit here. It looks like Manny has entered the rare Barry Bonds universe in Charlie Manuel's mind.

Update: Russell Martin strikes out, but Only James Loney smacks the ball off the centerfield wall for a double. Furcal scores, but Manny has to hold at third. That's how hard Loney hit the ball. It's 2-1 Phillies.

Update: DeWitt lines out to end the inning. That IBB came very close to costing the Phillies the lead. They end the first ahead 2-1.

Jimmy Rollins gets the Phillies off to a good start with a single leading off the first inning against Lowe.

Update: Jayson proves his Werth. He and Rollins execute a perfect hit and run, moving Rollins to third on the single. Utley gets the first chance at an RBI.

Update: Utley pulls a ball just by a diving Loney as Chase doubles down the rightfield line. The Phillies lead 2-0 after Ryan Howard grounds out to the second baseman shifted to the outfield. The Phillies have a man on third with one out.

Update: Burrell draws a walk, as four of the first five Phillies batters reach against Lowe. The Dodgers complain that Burrell swung at the last pitch, but the first base umpire said no.

Update: Lowe induces a ground ball from Victorino, resulting in a double play. The Dodgers come to bat trailing 2-0.

Edwin Jackson gets to make an appearance in the LCS as he comes in to pitch the bottom of the ninth. Mark Kotsay leads off and lines out to third.

Update: Varitek grounds out to second, two down. It's up to Cora.

Update: Alex Cora flies out to left to end the game.

That was a good old fashioned drubbing. The Rays hit four home runs, including a big three-run blast by B.J. Upton that put the Rays up 4-0. Longoria added a solo shot in that inning, the third, to pretty much put the game out of reach. Those two have combined for nine of the Rays 13 post-season home runs.

The Rays win back home field advantage. The two pitchers, Garza and Lester would matchup in a game seven if the series goes that far. The location favored the Red Sox today as Lester was great at Fenway this season and Garza was poor on the road. If these two meet again, Garza will have that advantage. Of course, this game showed that might not be worth much.

Carlos Pena hits a home run in the top of the ninth to extend the Rays lead to 9-1. It's the second game in a row in which they scored nine runs. That's pretty good for games started by Beckett and Lester.

Crawford singles to start the eighth. Aybar then executes a dangerous hit and run, getting the ball into left on a high line drive. It falls for a hit, and the Rays put runners at first and third.

Navarro grounds to second with the infield in. Pedroia throws home, and Varitek makes a nice play, catching the ball up the third base line a bit and surviving the collision with Crawford. One out, men on first and second.

Update: Rocco rocks the park as Baldelli hits a home run off one of the billboards over the Green Monster. The Rays lead 8-1 and this game looks out of reach for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza comes out for the bottom of the seventh, but walks Varitek and gives up a single to Cora to put runners on first and third with none out. Garza leaves with a 5-0 lead after throwing 116 pitches.

Update: Howell gets Ellsbury to make another out, but the fly ball is deep enough to score a run. Pedroia then hits into a double play to end the inning. The Rays lead 5-1 after seven innings.

Jon Lester walks Rocco Baldelli with two out in the sixth, and Paul Byrd comes in to get the last out of the inning. Jon walks two and strikes out seven in his 5 2/3 innings of work, but the Rays go 8 for 17 putting the ball in play, including three extra-base hits.

Update: Garza also walks a man with two out in the sixth, but he stays in the game. That runner also gets stranded and the Rays continue to lead 5-0.

B.J. Upton reaches on an infield hit. The Red Sox shift to the right for Carlos Pena, and he bunts down the third base line for a hit. Upton, however, takes a turn at second and Youkilis throws him out. Pena makes up for that a bit by stealing second.

If you're going to make a mistake, the time to make it is with a 5-0 lead in the top of the fifth.

Tampa Bay gets a leadoff single from Dioner Navarro, but that's it. They still lead 5-0 and Jon Lester looks like he'll stay in the game awhile. He's thrown 71 pitches through four innings.

Update: Kotsay singles in the bottom of the inning, but that's all the Red Sox get. The fans are starting to boo.

Jason Bartlett singles and Iwamura doubles off the wall to put men on second and third with no outs in the top of the third for the Rays. It's the third half-inning in a row where the teams put men on second and third. The Rays scored in the second, the Red Sox didn't.

Interestingly, before this started, the announcers were talking about how Lester settles in at this point of the game. Not today. B.J. Upton hits a ball over the Green Monster and the Rays lead 4-0. That gives Upton five home runs in the post season. He only hit nine during the regular season after hitting 24 in 2007.

Update: Pena strikes out, but Longoria homers into the Monster Seats. That's his fourth home run of the post season. Looks like Paul Byrd may be in sooner than later.

Update: Crawford goes down on strikes for the second time. Lester only allowed 14 home runs on the season, and teams only took him deep twice in a game two times. Only one of those came at Fenway.

Update: A fly ball ends the inning, but two long balls do plenty of damage as the Red Sox find themselves down five runs in the bottom of the third.

Correction: Corrected the team with the lead.

Jason Bay earns his twelfth hit of the post season with an infield single in the shortstop hole. He's 12 for 26, a .462 post-season batting average. Mark Kotsay follows with a double into the right-center gap, and the Red Sox have men on 2nd and 3rd with one out.

Update: Varitek strikes out looking on a pitch on the high inside corner, and he complains. The TBS broadcast pitch tracker showed that one and the one to Ortiz a bit off the plate, but both pitches looked very good to me.

Cora flies out to Upton in center, and Garza protects the 1-0 lead.

Jon Lester throws more pitches to Evan Longoria than he did in the first inning. Longoria walks, the first base runner for the Rays.

Update: Lester does a nice job getting Crawford to swing at a pitch in the dirt for strike three. Aybar, however, goes back to first pitch swinging to single to center. The Rays now have a threat with runners on first and second and one out.

Update: A passed ball by Varitek set up the first run. Jason was set up inside, but the pitch was high and outside. Varitek tried to backhand the ball, but it bounced off his glove. The runners move up, and Navarro grounds out to second to plate Longoria.

Update: Baldelli, like his friend Carl Crawford, strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. The Rays, however, take a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the second.

Iwamura grounds out on the second pitch, then Upton grounds out on the first pitch for two quick outs.

Iwamura grounds out on the second pitch, then Upton grounds out on the first pitch for two quick outs.

Update: Pena hits the first pitch deep to center for the third out. It appears the Rays strategy is to swing early against Lester. So far, the only thing they've accomplished is to give Jon very little work as the side goes down on four pitches.

Update: Like Iwamura, Ellsbury goes down on two pitches, flying out to left. Pedroia, however, picks up the first hit of the game with a ball that scrapes the wall. He winds up on second with a double.

Update: Garza catches Ortiz looking at a 2-2 pitch on the outside corner. Ortiz didn't like it, but it was pretty close to take.

Update: Youkilis grounds out. No score in the first inning. The Red Sox made Garza work a bit, as he threw 16 pitches.

It should be a nice afternoon for a game in Boston as Matt Garza and Jon Lester batter in the Back Bay. Garza lived up to expectations this season, increasing his MLB innings by 100 over 2007 while maintaining nearly the same ERA. Graza allowed fourteen of his nineteen home runs on the road this year, accounting for his higher road ERA.

Matt had his troubles with Boston this season, despite starting three of his four games at home. He did pitch seven shutout innings against the Red Sox on July 1st. In his other three starts, he allowed 11 earned runs in 15 innings, walking eight and striking out seven.

Lester far exceeded expectations. He added nearly 150 innings, lowering his ERA nearly 1.4 runs vs. 2007. Lester only started against the Rays at home in 2008, posting a 0.90 ERA in three starts. He struck out over three times as many Rays as he walked.

Given the location strengths of Garza and Lester, the Red Sox should be clear favorites in this game.

Mid-season acquisition Joe Blanton gets to pitch on the west coast again as he face Derek Lowe. Lowe gets the game four start on short rest, allowing him to come back in game seven on normal rest. With the extra day off on Tuesday, Joe Torre only need his top three starters, Lowe making the only start on short rest. Torre's been conservative with Lowe's pitch counts this October, keeping him under 100 pitches in both games. Derek has his ground ball machine working as he's induced 27 ground balls and only seven fly balls in his two playoff starts.

Blanton made two starts against the Dodgers this year, and like the Phillies team in general, the one in Los Angeles was poor and the one in Philadelphia great. Overall, I'm impressed he struck out ten LA batters in eleven innings. Blanton is not much of a strikeout pitcher, so that's a good number for him. We saw Sunday night, however, how the Dodgers are good at getting hits off low K pitchers, so the same thing may happen to Joe this evening.

Enjoy!

Tonight's game featured 17 hits, 13 of them singles. The big difference between the two teams was the three run triple in the bottom of the first. The long hit with two outs and the bases loaded but the Dodgers in a commanding position for the rest of the game.

The Dodgers also did a better job of finding holes in the defense. The Phillies were 7 for 27 on balls in play, .259. The Dodgers were 10 for 23, .435. Blanton faces Lowe tomorrow night.

The Phillies come into the ninth inning having three outs to spend on five runs.

Update Jonathan Broxton is on to face Ryan Howard.

Update: Ryan grounds out to first. One down.

Update: Burrell strikes out, two down.

Update: Werth keeps the game alive with a ground single to right.

Update: Feliz pops out to end the game. The Dodgers win 7-2 and this series will go at least five games.

The Phillies get the leadoff man on in the eighth but don't score. The Dodgers are three outs away from making the series 2-1.

Chad Durbin hits Russell Martin with a breaking ball. That the second time he's been hit, and one other time the Phillies came close. With both sides warned, I'm surprised Durbin isn't out of the game. I thought that was automatic! I guess if the ump thought it was accidental, he doesn't have to chase the pitcher and the manager.

Utley doubles and Howard singles to put runners on first and third with nobody out. The Phillies need a big hit here in the seventh to get back in this game.

Update: They could get a lot of little hits, too. Burrell dumps a single into center to plate Utley, and it's 7-2 Dodgers with men on first and second. Kuroda leaves the game allowing five hits in 6+ innings.

Update: Cory Wade comes on in relief.

Update: Wade strikes out Werth, one down.

Update: Feliz flies out deep to center. Ryan Howard moves up to third, but Kemp's throw makes the play surprisingly close.

Update: Dobbs grounds out up the middle, and the Phillies fail to get the big hit. They trail 7-2 at the stretch.

Through six innings, Hiroki Kuroda is well in control of this game. He's allowed just two hits and one walk, despite a low strikeout total of three. He's thrown just 76 pitches, and with the big lead Torre can conserve the bullpen tonight. The Dodgers still lead 7-1 going to the bottom of the sixth.

Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin walk in the bottom of the fourth with two out. Garciaparra singles to left and Manny tries to score with two out. I thought Burrell had a great shot at throwing him out at the plate, but the ball was cut off to get Martin instead. I'm guessing that was the wrong move, as Manny scores and the Dodgers lead 7-1 after four. It looked to me that the throw was on the money and had plenty of time to beat Manny to the plate.

Happ comes in to pitch the bottom of the third, and two of the first three batters single against him. The Dodgers now have eight hits on the night. It's first and second with one out.

Update: Happ strikes out DeWitt and Kuroda and the Dodgers fail to score for the first time this evening. Still 6-1 Los Angeles after three innings.

Kuroda throws a pitch over Shane Victorino's head with two out in the top of the third. The umpire issues a warning to both benches, and Victorino is upset. He indicates, to Kuroda, hit me in my side, not my head.

McCarver claims it's safe to throw over a batter's head. Unless you miss of course.

Victorino grounds out, and the benches empty. Manny Ramirez is the most vocal, and the Dodgers push him off the field so he doesn't get thrown out nor suspended. It's all pretty calm for the benches clearing.

Rafael Furcal reaches for the second time tonight, although he doesn't stay on base long. He fly ball goes over the fence in left-center and the Dodgers lead is back to five in the bottom of the second, 6-1.

Update: Moyer get Ethier, but Manuel doesn't want him pitching to Manny again. Clay Condrey makes his second playoff appearance of 2008.

Update: Manny walks. Condrey almost hits Martin, then Russell grounds into a double play. Martin was hit in the first inning.

There were some complaints that Billingsley didn't retaliate against the ball thrown behind Manny's back in game two. Now that the Dodgers have a huge lead, we'll see what Kuroda does.

Ryan Howard doubles to lead off the second. He moves to third on the second out of the inning, then scores on a Feliz single. That's one back, four more to go as the Dodgers lead 5-1 in the middle of the second inning. The hit takes Feliz's post-season batting average over .200 as he's now 6 for 27.

Rafael Furcal and Andre Ethier each single to put men on first and second for Manny Ramirez in the bottom of the first. Manny singles through the shortstop hole to plate Furcal, but for some reason Burrell throws home. The Dodgers now have runners at second and third, leading 1-0.

Update: Manny now has five RBI in the three LCS games and eight in the playoffs. Martin gets hit on the knee to load the bases.

Update: Nomar hits a long foul ball down the leftfield line, but strikes out looking for the first out of the inning.

Update: Casey Blake goes the other way for a single and the Dodgers lead 2-0. The bases are still loaded and Matt Kemp is up.

Update: Kemp thought it was ball four, but the pitch caught the inside corner and Kemp is caught looking. Blake DeWitt looks for the big hit to break the game open.

Update: DeWitt triples down the rightfield line and clears the bases. That turns the inning from tolerable to game breaking for the Phillies. They lead 5-0 at the end of one.

Correction: DeWitt's hit was a triple.

Chase Utley walks, but he's caught stealing as the Phillies fail to score in the first.

The NLCS moves to Los Angeles as Jamie Moyer faces Hiroki Kuroda. Moyer played ten major league seasons before he made it to the playoffs. The trade from Boston to Seattle in 1996 set up his 17-5 1997 season, at that time the best of his career. He's now in his fourth post-season in the last 12 years, and his stats are remarkable. In six post season starts he's posted a 2.67 ERA, walking just nine in 33 2/3 innings and allowing just two home runs. Considering his his career ERA is 4.19, and teams tend to face excellent competition in the post season, his playoff ERA is rather impressive.

Moyer pitched extremely well on the road this season. His 2.92 away ERA was third in the National League. He also won 10 of his 16 games away from CBP.

At 33 years old, Kuroda's first MLB season was successful. His 3.73 ERA was good, getting there keeping his walks and home runs allowed low. He tends to give up hits with runners on first, but not with runners in scoring position. He gets into trouble but he also gets out of it.

He pitched great against the Phillies this season. In two starts, he lasted 13 innings giving up just four hits. He walked two and struck out 12 and most importantly didn't allow a home run. He gives up very few extra base hits, so his strength plays directly against a Phillies strength.

Enjoy!

The Rays win 9-8 in a game that was a lot of fun to watch. Both teams battled all the way, each earning multiple leads, each staging multiple comebacks. The starters pitched poorly, the Rays bullpen got off to a bad start but recovered, and the Red Sox relievers were magnificent until Timlin showed his age. The Red Sox drew ten walks in the game, but the Rays only managed one until waiting out Timlin for three in the 11th. The series is even, although Boston is as good at home as the Rays. The Red Sox hope their home field advantage keeps them in Boston throughthe first two games of the World Series. The ALCS resumes Monday night.

Mike Timlin comes in to pitch the bottom of the eleventh. He'll face Navarro, Gross and Bartlett.

Update: Navarro walks on a 3-2 pitch. Good eye by Dioner. Fernando Perez pinch runs.

Update: Sorry, it's Zobrist, not Gross. Zobrist came in a few innings ago.

Update: Zobrist intends to bunt, but Timlin can't get the ball in the strike zone. Ben walks on five pitches. The Red Sox pitching coach gets thrown out for aguing the ball two call from the bench. It was very close.

Update: Maddon starts the runners. Bartlett grounds one to third, but the only play is at first. It's not a sacrifice, but it works just the same. Timlin intentionally walks Iwamura to bring up Upton.

Update: Timlin is having trouble getting the ball over the plate, but Upton swings at the first two pitches to go down 0-2. He hits a fly ball down the rightfield line, not too deep, but Drew can't throw out Perez at the plate. The Rays win 9-8! Tampa Bay is now 7-0 in one-run games against the Red Sox this season, 6-0 in at the Trop.

The teams will play three in Boston.

Dan Wheeler get the first out, but Lowrie walks for the third time in the game. That brings up J.D. Drew and brings in David Price to pitch.

Update: Price walks Drew. The Red Sox have the go-ahead run in scoring position.

Update: Price paints the outside corner to strike out Kotsay looking. Crisp is coming up, three for five in the game.

Update: Crisp grounds to third to end the inning. The Rays get another chance to win with a run.

Pedoria, Ortiz and Youkilis goes down in the tenth as Wheeler pitches over two innings for the first time in two years. The Rays get another chance to win with a run.

Update: Crawford lines a pitch off Papelbon, but the Rays go down in order anyway. This one goes to 11.

Bartlett, Iwamura and Upton are scheduled to bat in the ninth.

Update: Masterson comes in to face Bartlett.

Update: Bartlett works the count full then grounds out to Youkilis. Iwamura's turn.

Update: Iwamura hits one to the right of Pedroia. It looks like it might be a close play, but Dustin bobbles it and Iwamura gets an infield hit. B.J. Upton bats.

Update: Upton strikes out swinging. That bring up Carlos Pena and brings in Jonathan Papelbon to pitch.

Update: Pena strikes out to send the game into extra innings. The 2-3-4 hitters are due up for the Red Sox in the 10th. Along with Bay in the five spot, they 've generated all the runs for the Red Sox tonight.

J.D. Drew pinch hits to lead off the ninth.

Update: Drew flies out to center. Kotsay bats.

Update: Kotsay strikes out. Coco Crisp is up with two hits on the night.

Update: Crisp hits one deep to centerfield, and Upton doesn't read it right. The ball lands over his head and bounces over the fence for a double. That brings up Ellsbury with a chance to give the Red Sox a lead with a hit.

Update: Wheeler strikes out Ellsbury, leaving Crisp at second. One run wins the game as the Rays come up in the bottom of the ninth.

Pedroia singles chasing Chad Bradford and Ortiz fights off a number of pitches to eventually draw a walk off Trevor Miller. Joe Maddon goes the to bullpen again for Youkilis in the eighth.

Update: Dan Wheeler comes in and gets Youkilis to ground into a 6-4-3 double play. Pedroia is at third with two outs. They're going to pitch to Bay.

Update: Wheeler throws it over everyone's head and Pedroia scores on the wild pitch. Navarro had a chance to make a throw to the plate, but he flubbed it. Jason Bay walks and the inning continues. The game is tied at eight.

Update: Lowrie flies out and the Rays come up in the bottom of the ninth looking for a run to take back the lead. The Red Sox 2-5 hitters have scored all eight runs and driven in the seven that resulted in RBI.

Update: Okajima retires the side in order in the bottom of the eighth. The Red Sox send up the bottom of the order in the ninth.

The Red Sox get an infield hit but fail to score in the top of the seventh. It's only the fifth time in 13 half innings that one of the teams failed to score.

Update: The bullpens are getting it together as the Rays go down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the seventh. The Rays lead 8-7 going to the eighth.

Jason Bartlett beats out an infield single. When I watched it live, I thought he was obviously safe, but on the replay the play was much closer than I thought. The ump could have called that one either way.

Update: Barlett reaches second, but that's as far as he gets as the Rays continue to lead 8-7 after six innings.

Pedroia walks, Youkilis and Bay single, and the 2-5 hitters for Boston pick up two more hits, one more run scored and one more RBI. They've driven in and scored all seven Red Sox runs. That's all the Red Sox get, however, as the Rays lead 8-7 going to the bottom of the sixth.

My daughter is blaming me for the Red Sox trailing because I'm wearing this to keep warm tonight (our furnace is still out of commission).

I didn't know my wardrobe had so much power!

B.J. Upton walks with one out. He then steals second and uses his speed to score on a Carlos Pena single just by Pedroia, shifted into the outfield. B.J. had to hold up because it was a line drive, but as soon as it hit he turned on the after burners and beat the throw home easily. The Rays come back for the third time tonight, tying the game at six in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: Evan Longoria picks up his third hit of the game, ending up on third with double down the leftfield line and an advance on the throw to the plate. Pena makes a nice slide to the inside of the infield as the throw goes a bit wide up the line.

Josh Beckett is done. I was very surprised he got to face Longoria for a third time. Tampa Bay takes a 7-6 lead.

Update: Lopez comes in a gives up a single to Crawford, a shot through the drawn in infield. The Rays are now up 8-6 and Boston makes another pitching change.

Update: Delcarmen enters the game and Aybar bats for Floyd. I'm not sure I understand this. Both are left-handed batters, and the way things are going in this game, the Red Sox can easily come back. With Aybar becoming the designated hitter, he's not really available if the Rays need an infielder later in the game.

Update: Manny Delcarmen induces two fly ball outs, and the teams go to the sixth with the Rays leading 8-6.

Scott Kazmir gives up another shot to Dustin Pedroia, and one out later Kevin Youkilis takes him deep. Each starter now has allowed three home runs and five runs in the game. The 2 through 5 hitters in the Red Sox lineup are five for nine with two walks. They've driven in and scored all five runs. The game is tied at five in the fifth inning.

Update: Balfour comes into the game and Jason Bay takes him deep for a 6-5 Red Sox lead. The 2-5 hitters add another run and another RBI. That ties a post-season record for most home runs in a game, seven.

Update: After Balfour walks two, J.P. Howell comes in and gets the last two outs. The Rays find themselves behind for the third time this game. The other two times they were able to score.

Cliff Floyd hits the back wall in centerfield as the Rays take a 5-3 lead. That's three home runs in the game allowed by Josh. He gave up four to Milwaukee in May, but that's the only time this season he allowed more than two. I'm surprised at this point that Josh is still in the game.

Update: Cubs f/x notes a drop in Beckett's velocity since returning from the disabled list. I haven't been watching closely tonight, but the two fast balls I noticed this inning were 92.

B.J. Upton, the Rays number two hitter, answers Dustin Pedroia's home run with one of his own. He blasts the ball deep into the leftfield bleachers to tie the game at three.

Beckett has now allowed six home runs to the Rays this year, accounting for eight of the 12 Rays runs scored against him.

Update: Longoria hits a long line drive off the wall in left, nearly identical to Bay's double in the first. The Rays have the go-ahead run at second with two out.

Update: Crawford delivers a single into right-center that plates Longoria and puts the Rays up 4-3. Tampa Bay is showing the resilience in this game we saw against the White Sox.

Update: Crawford gets picked off first. The Rays lead 4-3 after three innings.

Correction: Changed it to the right Upton.

Pedroia homers off Kazmir on a 3-2 pitch to put the Red Sox up 3-2. The pitch was low in the strike zone, and Dustin did a nice job of compressing himself to get the ball then uncoiling to drive it out. Rickey Henderson was good at that.

Ortiz follows with his second walk of the game, and Kazmir continues to have trouble with the middle of the Red Sox lineup.

Update: Three fly balls end the inning, and the Rays find themselves down 3-2 in the middle of the third.

Beckett gives up a single to Navarro in the second, but strikes out the other three batters. That gives him four for the game. The Rays work him a little bit more in the inning, as Beckett is now up to 42 pitches. It looks like the bullpens could play a big role in this game.

Scott Kazmir retires the Red Sox in order in the second. He used just 13 pitches.

Josh Beckett just struck out B.J. Upton for the second out of the first inning on a very pretty pitch. I would love to have seen where it caught the plate, however. They're playing in a dome, why doesn't TBS have a camera directly above home plate so we can see pitches from that angle? That was always a favorite angle of mine when broadcasts used to do that in Toronto.

Carlos Pena doubles to left to create a two-out threat for Tampa Bay.

Update: Longoria crushes a 3-1 pitch into the leftfield stands and the Rays come back to tie the game at two.

In the pre-game show, Cal Ripken talked about Longoria jumping at the ball, not staying back. Evan stayed back on that one.

Update: Crawford grounds out to short to end the inning. Still, Beckett used a little more than half the pitches Kazmir did, 20 to Scott's 38.

Scott Kazmir of the Rays starts Jacoby Ellsbury off with a strike.

Update: Ellsbury goes down swinging.

Update: Ortiz walks for the first base runner of the game. Youkilis is up with two out.

Update: Youkilis hits a solid line drive to left for a single. He's now 8 for 23 in the post season.

Update: Jason Bay hits a double off the wall in the leftfield corner to plate both runners. Boston leads 2-0.

That at bat is a great example of why Kazmir is such a frustrating pitcher. He got ahead of Bay 0-2. With that count he should be able to put him away. He wastes one way outside, then throws two pitches that miss by a wide margin to bring the count to 3-2. In other words, he didn't throw any of the next three pitches close enough to make Bay think about swinging. He pitches had no purpose. He didn't even try to come inside to force Bay off the plate to set up a pitch on the outside corner. On 3-2, he just put the ball over the plate and Bay crushed it. It looks like there is no plan out there.

Lowrie follows with a walk. Scott has already thrown 34 pitches.

Update: Varitek strikes out to end the first. The Red Sox get off to an early 2-0 lead. It should be noted the White Sox also scored two runs off Kazmir in the first inning of game two of the ALDS, but the Rays came back to win that game.

Coco Crisp replaces J.D. Drew in Saturday night's Red Sox lineup:

Drew is 1 for 7 with three strikeouts and a walk in his career against Tampa Bay starter Scott Kazmir. Crisp is hitting 9 for 30 against Kazmir with three doubles. That, really, is what it came down to.

"I really wanted Coco to play," Francona said. "I didn't want to take [Jacoby] Ellsbury out of the leadoff spot. So we can have J.D. sitting over there kind of knowing that they're going to use Balfour. Maybe at one of the most pivotal points, having J.D. sitting over there will make them think twice. Maybe it won't. I just think, [Kazmir] is so tough on lefties, we had to play a lefty more than we would like. But I don't want Ellsbury out of the leadoff spot."

Both are real small sample sizes. Drew, as a lefty, owns a higher career OBA and slugging percentage against lefties than Crisp does as a righty. Maybe there is something about Kazmir that works to a Drew weakness, but I'd rather have J.D. in there.

One caveat is that Francona knows how to use batter vs. pitcher data. He often goes to video and looks at why the hitters are doing well or poorly against a particular pitcher. I can believe Terry saw something that he didn't like in the Drew/Kazmir matchup.

The Red Sox and Rays send Josh Beckett and Scott Kazmir to the mound in game two of the ALCS. Even with Beckett's poor start in the ALDS against the Angels, he still brings a 2.09 career post-season ERA into tonight's matchup. Beckett posts an impressive 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the playoffs. Considering that his career regular season mark is bit under 9.0, and the playoff competition is supposed to be the cream of the crop, that's an amazing number.

Beckett handled the Rays very well this season, making five starts against them for a 2.06 ERA. In 35 innings, he walked just five but struck out 37. He did give up four home runs, accounting for five of the nine runs he allowed to Tampa Bay. If you remove his innings against the Rays from his record, Beckett posted a 4.52 ERA against everyone else. The Rays kept his ERA miserable instead of horrible.

Kazmir won his first post-season start, although he was not dominating. In 5 1/3 innings he allowed eight hits and stuck out just four. He got off to a great start this season after he returned from injury, but the last three months his ERAs were over four as he started to walk batters again. That's not a great way to approach the Red Sox offense.

Boston, indeed, took advantage of Kazmir's walks this season. In four starts, he lasted a total of 18 innings, walking and striking out 14. Couple that with six home runs and the Red Sox hung a 9.00 ERA on Scott. Given the relative success of the two pitchers against the ALCS opponent, the Red Sox should be heavy favorites tonight.

Enjoy!

The Red Sox go quietly in the ninth. Crawford, Floyd and Navarro will try to get something going against Jonathan Papelbon.

Update: Crawford swings and misses three times and goes down on strikes. He had no chance of catching up to Papelbon's pitches.

Update: Floyd gets ahead 2-1 but pops up to third base. Two down. The game belongs to Navarro now.

Update: On a 1-2 count Navarro swings at a pitch in the dirt and the Rays lose 2-0.

Both starters pitched very well. Matsuzaka got into trouble in the first, but Upton just missed a pitch. Later in the game, Longoria and Pena each got the green light with men on and a 3-0 count, and both missed squaring up the ball. Great job by Dice-K and the bullpen getting outs on pitches out of the strike zone tonight.

The Red Sox win back the home field advantage, just as they did in the ALDS. So far, their regular season results against these teams hasn't translated to the post season.

The Rays have shown a great deal of resilience in the playoffs so far. We'll see if they can come back for a win tomorrow.

Two singles, one of the infield variety, chase Matsuzaka from the game in the eighth inning. Okajima comes in to face Carlos Pena.

Update: Pena swings at a 3-0 pitch and flies out to right. Drew had to run a bit to get the ball but makes the catch no problem. Longoria comes up with men on first and second as the Red Sox make another pitching change.

Update: Masterson comes in and falls behind Longoria 2-0. He gets two strikes and then Longoria grounds into a double play. Nice job by Masterson and the Rays are down to three outs.

With one on and one out in the eighth, Howell relieves Shields and faces David Ortiz. Shields pitched a fine game, walking two and striking out six in 7 1/3 innings of work.

Update: Ortiz walks after a Pedroia steal. Youkilis comes up with men on first and second, and Youkilis is the only player with multiple hits in the game.

Update: Youkilis hits a line drive to left, and Crawford has the ball tick off his glove. The ball was catchable, but everyone advances two bases. Boston leads 2-0 with men at 2nd and 3rd and one out. The Rays defense let them down on that play.

Update: Drew gets hit by Balfour, Bay strikes out and Kotsa pops out. Against, the Red Sox have a chance to break the game open but come away with one run. They lead 2-0 and need six outs to win game one.

Crawford, Floyd and Navarro try to break up the no-hitter in the seventh. Derek Lowe pitched a no-hitter for Boston against Tampa Bay at Fenway, April 27, 2002.

Update: Carl Crawford lines a single into rightfield to start the seventh. Now that they've broken up the no-hitter, they need to see if they can string a few hits together for a run.

Update: Floyd does just that, dropping a fly ball between Bay and Ellsbury for a single, sending Crawford to third. A long fly ball from either of the next two batter ties the game.

Update: Navarro flies to left, but it's too shallow and Crawford doesn't attempt to score. One out for Gabe Gross.

Update: Gross gets ahead 3-1, but strikes out, foul tipping a low pitch into Varitek's glove. It's up to Bartlett.

Update: Bartlett grounds out to short. Both starters pitch out of jams in the seventh and the Red Sox still lead 1-0.

Drew and Bay single to start the seventh inning for Boston. Kotsay almost gets an excuse me hit, but Iwamura makes a nice play on a low pop-up.

Update: A strikeout and an pop out end the inning with no damage. The Rays come up in the bottom of the seventh still looking for their first hit.

Upton, Pena and Longoria face Matsuzaka in the sixth, Dice-K still working on a no-hitter.

Update: Upton popped out.

Update: Carlos Pena blisters the ball, but with the shift on, Pedroia fields it in the outfield. He makes a nice stop on a ball that hopped high and threw Carlos out at first.

Update: Longoria swings at a 3-0 pitch and flies out to Drew in foul territory in right. Matsuzaka is through six innings, not allowing a hit. He's thrown 89 pitches, ten more than Shields. It's still 1-0 Red Sox.

Jason Bay walks and Kotsay doubles down the leftfield line to start the fifth for the Red Sox. They have runners on second and third for Lowrie.

Update: Jed Lowrie flies out to deep rightfield, moving both runners up a base. The Red Sox draw first blood, and lead 1-0.

Update: The Rays bring the infield in, and Varitek hits a shot. It's right at Iwamura, however, and Kotsay has to hold third. Two out for Ellsbury.

Update: Ellsbury pops one into no-man's land between short and center. Bartlett goes back and makes an over the shoulder catch to end the inning. The Red Sox lead 1-0 while the Rays come up in the fifth still looking for their first hit.

The game is still scoreless after three innings. The Rays have drawn four walks, but still have not collected a hit off Dice-K. The Red Sox have a hit, but only two batters reached base, both in the first inning.

Update: Youkilis remains the only batter on either team with a hit as he singles in the fourth. Drew hits into a double play, however, to end the inning. Kevin now has half a cycle with a double and single.

Both pitchers settle down, each retiring the side in order in the second inning. Shields strikes out one, Matsuzaka Ks two.

Akinori Iwamura leads off against Daisuke Matsuzaka and draws a walk to start the bottom of the first.

Update: Upton gets a bit under a ball and flies out to center, but Pena draws a walk to put men on first and second with one out.

Update: Matsuzaka throws a pretty pitch inside to catch Longoria looking. Two down.

Update: Crawford walks to load the bases. I'm impressed Dice-K could walk Carl, whose career high in walks in 37.

Update: Cliff Floyd grounds out to end the inning. There was Matsuzaka's season in an inning. Lots of walks, no hits to move the runners. Both teams fail to take advantage of scoring opportunities, and the game goes to the second scoreless.

James Shields strikes out Jacoby Ellsbury to start Tampa Bay's first league championship series.

James Shields strikes out Jacoby Ellsbury to start Tampa Bay's first league championship series.

Update: Pedroia walks on a 3-2 pitch for the first base runner of the game. Shields kept the ball outside to Dustin.

Update: After Ortiz flies out, Youkilis lines down the rightfield line and the ball bounces into the stands for a double. If it stays in play, Pedroia scores easily from first. Drew is up with two men in scoring position.

Update: Drew strikes out, flailing at the last two pitches. The hit by Youkilis was his first off Shields. He was 0 for 17 coming into the game.

The Dodgers still trail 8-5 as they send up the heart of the order in the 9th inning. Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and James Loney are due to face Brad Lidge.

Update: Lidge walks Manny to start the ninth, but comes back to strike out Ethier. Manny takes second on the K.

Update: Lidge walks Loney. The Dodgers send up Matt Kemp as the tying run, men on first and second.

Update: Kemp strikes out. If the pattern holds, Garciaparra should draw a walk.

Update: Nomar swings and misses at the first pitch, which is just off the outside corner. The next two are no where near the strike zone, but Nomar swings and misses at both. The Phillies with 8-5 and take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. If the teams are evenly matched, the Phillies have about an 81% chance of advancing to the World Series.

So far this year, however, the home team has won every game of the ten played between the two clubs. The Dodgers need to hope that holds up over the next three games.

Clayton Kershaw starts the bottom of the seventh for the Dodgers. There was some talk about him starting game four. With him coming into this game, however, I bet Derek Lowe comes back on short rest for game four. He only threw 90 pitches on Thursday night. He would then be able to pitch on normal rest in game seven if the series goes that far.

The Phillies took out Myers after five innings. He didn't pitch well, but he sure hit well. His three RBI are the difference in the game. Chad Durbin gives up a hit but no runs in the sixth, and the Phillies still lead 8-5 going to the bottom of the inning.

Brett Myers grounds one slowly to third with two out in the bottom of the fourth, and beats it out for his third hit of the game. Rollins comes up with men on first and second.

Update: Rollins strikes out to end the fourth.

With two out, Furcal strikes out but reaches on a wild pitch. A single later, Manny Ramirez just clears the fence in left to cut the Phillies lead to 8-5. It appears Manny was jammed and just muscled it out. That's Manny's third home run of this post season and the 27th of his career. That's all the Dodgers get, however, as the teams go to the bottom of the fourth. I think this game is now officially a slugfest.

Burrell and Werth lead off the third with a single and a double, putting men on 2nd and 3rd. The Phillies now have seven hits in the game. Billingsley gave up 188 hits in 200 2/3 innings this season. Dobbs get intentionally walked to load the bases for Ruiz and Myers.

Update: Ruiz grounds to first, and Loney forces the runner at the plate. Nice play by Loney on a ball that wasn't hit particularly hard.

Myers then smacks a ball by Loney, just inside the first base line and two runs score. It's 6-2 Phillies, and Myers has driven in half the Phillies runs. That's it for Chad Billingsley.

Update: Chan Ho Park comes on for the second time in this series.

Update: Note that Myers's career high in RBI is 5 in 2005. He's picked up 1 or 0 in every other year.

Update: Myers is getting a good workout running in this game. After Park strikes out Rollins, Victorino doubles to right-center, and Myers scores all the way from first, a two-run triple for Shane. The Phillies lead 8-2.

Philadelphia hasn't hit for a high average so far in the post season, depending on extra-base hits to generate runs. Today, however, they're nine for seventeen with six singles.

Update: Joe Beimel takes over for Park.

Update: Chase Utley walks, bringing up Ryan Howard. For the second inning in a row, Howard is the ninth batter.

Update: Howard walks on a 3-2 count to load the bases. Nice job by Beimel, walking the two lefties he was brought into face. Neither Utley nor Howard has but the ball in play today as Chase walked three times and Ryan struck out twice.

Update: James McDonald enters on a double switch. Jeff Kent comes in to play second.

Update: McDonald strikes out Burrell to end the third. The Phillies put the Dodgers in a big hole, leading 8-2 after three.

Brett Myers walks two in the top of the third, but in between he gets Manny Ramirez to pop out. The Dodgers have two on and two out, and Loney delivers again as he singles up the middle to drive in Russell Martin. It's 4-2 Phillies.

Update: Matt Kemp hits a hot shot to third that Dobbs can't handle. The error loads the bases for DeWitt, who drove in the first run of the game.

Update: DeWitt strikes out to end the inning. It's 4-2 Phillies in the middle of the third.

Greg Dobbs singles in the bottom of the second with two out, and Carlos Ruiz rolls a double through the leftfield gap all the way to the wall, scoring Dobbs from first. Brett Myers then hits the first pitch for a line drive single up the middle, and the Phillies lead 2-1. Myers picked up four hits in the regular season, and he now has two in the post season.

Update: Jimmy Rollins reaches second on a slow roller up the middle. DeWitt can't get to the ball, then Kemp boots the ball in centerfield, kicking it away. I thought Myers might have hurt himself running to third, but he just slipped. Four straight hits with two out in the second. One more and the Phillies will have a nice lead.

Update: Victorino delivers a line shot to left, and the Phillies take a 4-1 lead.

Update: Billingsley only allowed four runs or more once in his last 16 starts.

Update: Utley walks as Billingsley is starting to have trouble finding the plate. This would be a bad spot for Chad to hang a pitch.

Update: Howard strikes out, as Billingsley does strike out three in the inning. He just couldn't get an out when the Phillies put the bat on the ball. Howard, with his second strikeout of the game, now has seven strikeouts in 17 at bats.

With Andre Ethier on first with none out, James Loney hits one deep to right. Like Manny's shot last night, it hits high on the wall, just missing a home run and Loney gets a double. Ethier had to hold up, so that puts runners on 2nd and 3rd, the Dodgers first scoring threat of the game.

Kemp strikes out, however, for the first out.

Update: Blake DeWitt grounds out to first, pushing across the first run of the game. De Witt now has an RBI in each game of the NLCS and three in the post season.

Update: Billingsley flies out to right. The Dodgers get a run, but they can't get the big hit to bust open the inning. Still they take a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the second.

Brett Myers gets Rafael Furcal to fly out to start game two of the NLCS.

Update: Martin strikes out swinging. Bases empty for Manny, just the way the defense wants it.

Update: Myers throws ball two behind Manny's back. The Dodger dugout didn't like it, but Manny didn't react. Myers comes back from the 2-0 count to strike out Ramirez swinging. A very strong inning for the Phillies starter.

Update: Billingsley strikes out two as the Phillies fail to score in the first.

Take a late, long lunch if you live in Los Angeles to watch the Dodgers try to even the series with the Phillies, game time 4:35 PM EDT, 1:35 PM PDT. Chad Billingsley takes the hill against Brett Myers. Chad didn't hang many pitches this season, allowing just 14 home runs in 200 2/3 innings. He owns a fairly impressive record in day games in 2008, going 5-3 with a 2.17 ERA in 10 starts. In his 62 1/3 innings of day ball, he allowed just one home run and struck out 70 batters. The Phillies were selective against Chad in his one start against them his year, drawing five walks in six innings.

Brett Myers comes off a seven-inning, two-hit performance against the Brewers. He only struck out four in the game while walking three, so it wasn't a stellar performance. Very few of the Brewers balls in play found holes. In the strikeout category, Brett's LDS start was more in line with his last three regular season starts in which his strikeouts suddenly fell off. Florida and Atlanta were able to take advantage of that to pound him for 19 hits in 8 1/3 innings, but surrounding those were two starts against Milwaukee in which he allowed a total of four hits in 16 innings despite striking out eight. If his strikeouts are off again today, I suspect the Dodgers will do a better job with balls in the play than the Brewers.

In the night cap of the LCS double header, the Red Sox and Rays open their series with Daisuke Matsuzaka facing James Shields. Matsuzaka pitched a Nolan Ryan like year. He struck out a ton of batters, walked a high amount but was nearly unhittable. By keeping the ball in the park, he limited the damage done by the walks. Eight of his 12 home runs allowed came with men on base, however, as did 20 of his 43 extra base hits allowed.

That's pretty much the way he pitched against the Rays. In three starts, he posted a 3.00 ERA, good for a 1-0 record. He only lasted 15 innings however, as he struck out 17, but walked eleven. The Rays hit him a bit better than the average club with a .228 BA, but only managed two extra base hits for a .298 slugging percentage.

Shields pitched very well at Tropicana Field this season. Nine of his fourteen wins came at home, and his ERA dropped well over two runs compared to his road pitching. (I actually wonder why he's not starting games two and six, so he can pitch twice at home.) While he gives up many fewer hits at home, his home runs allowed really drop. He allows 14.8 per 200 innings at home, 32.1 away. That rate is less than half of what he allowed on the road.

The home/road split comes to the fore against Boston. At Fenway, he allowed 11 earned runs 4 2/3 innings, although part of that was coming out after fighting with Coco Crisp. At home against the Red Sox, Shields went 2-0, one of those a shutout. In 15 1/3 innings he allowed just seven hits and two runs, striking out 12 and walking two. The location of this game is a strong suit for both pitchers, so I expect a tough contest tonight.

Enjoy!

Correction: Fixed the game one start time.

The Phillies defeat the Dodgers 3-2 to take a one game lead in the NLCS. The offense of both teams revolved around extra-base hits. Three doubles led to the two Los Angeles runs, while homers by Utley and Burrell plated the three Philadelphia runners. If Manny's double in the first had been two feet higher, this game would be tied.

Cole Hamels pitches seven strong innings, striking out eight and walking just two. He threw 67% of his pitches for strikes. Lowe threw the same number of balls, but 20 fewer strikes in his 5 1/3 innings of work.

Shane Victorino reaches second on an error by Rafael Furcal. Chase Utley follows and Lowe gets a pitch up in the strike zone, and Chase crushes it. The ball goes into the rightfield stands and the Dodgers and Phillies are tied at two.

Update: Pat the Bat follows one out later with a homer to left and the Phillies lead 3-2.

At the end of the fifth, Lowe looked like he was struggling. In the sixth, the ball stopped sinking and started flying out of the park. Lowe had only given up two home runs in his previous 11 starts, including the NLDS. He's out of the game in favor of Chan Ho Park.

Carlos Ruiz and Cole Hamels, the 8th and 9th hitters for the Phillies, single with two out in the bottom of the fifth, bringing up Rollins.

Update: Lowe goes to a full count against Rollins, but Jimmy flies out to left. Still 2-0 Dodgers after five innings.

Derek Lowe continues to post a high ball to strike ratio, but the Phillies can't do much with it. Lowe's only walked one batter and allowed two hits. He just picked up his first two strike outs in the fourth, so he's improving as the game continues.

By the way, Blake DeWitt looks like a very good second baseman. He's made two nice plays this evening.

Matt Kemp doubles to lead off the fourth, and two outs bring him around to score. The three doubles are hurting Hamels tonight. Cole gave up 44 two-base hits in the regular season, tied for 15th most in the NL. The Dodgers lead 2-0 in the middle of the fourth.

Derek Lowe isn't that sharp tonight, with 15 of his 35 pitches called for balls. He's missing low, however, and getting the Phillies to hit the ball on the ground, good for five outs including a GDP. Hamels is controlling the strike zone better, with only 12 of his 35 pitches called balls.

Andre Ethier bats second tonight and hits a one-out gap double. Manny swings at a pitch high and misses, then creams one to centerfield that misses being a home run by a couple of feet, hitting high off a fence in straight away center. The Dodgers get off to a 1-0 lead in the first.

If you get to see Manny's hit in slow motion, it's a great example of keeping your eye on the ball as it meets the bat.

Update: Hamels walks Loney but gets out of the inning with no more damage.

The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Red Sox and Rays, opponents in the ALCS.

AL Ranks

2008	Red Sox	Rays
Runs/Game	5.22 (3rd)	4.78 (9th)
Batting Avg.	.280 (2nd)	.260 (13th)
On-Base Average	.358 (1st)	.340 (6th)
Slugging Pct.	.447 (3rd)	.422 (8th)
ERA	4.01 (4th)	3.82 (2nd)
Strikeouts/9 IP	7.4 (1st)	7.1 (5th)
Walks/9 IP	3.4 (9th)	3.2 (8th)
HR/200 IP	20.3 (4th)	22.8 (9th)

Looking at the stat comparison, I don't see how anyone could pick the Rays to win this series. Tampa Bay holds a slight edge in pitching. Their ERA beats the Red Sox ERA by 0.19 runs, although Boston ranks better at striking out batters and preventing home runs. The same thing was true against the White Sox, better ERA, without better pitching stats. Again, the Rays did a better job than the Red Sox of turning balls put in play into outs. From the White Sox/Rays preview:

The answer lies in the players on the field behind the pitchers. The defensive efficiency record (DER) measures the ability of fielders to turn a batted ball into an out. The Rays DER in 2008 came in at .710, the best in the majors. Chicago posted a .686 mark, 9th in the AL. Think of it as the difference between a team that bats .290 and one that bats .314. For every 200 balls in play, the Rays are going collect about five more outs. In fact, the rise of the Rays DER from 13th in the AL in 2007 to first in 2008 accounts for a large part in the drop in team ERA. The Rays can afford to allow more balls in play than the White because they are better at turning them into outs.

The Red Sox are better defensively than the White Sox. Their .699 DER ranked fourth in the AL, but a few more balls do trickle through the Boston defense than through the Tampa Bay fielders. The bottom line, both these staffs are capable of shutting down the opposition.

The difference comes on offense. Boston hits for average, gets on base extremely well and owns plenty of power. The Rays do a good job of getting on base, and that's about it. That's why the Red Sox outscored their opponents by 48 more runs than the Rays. The reason the Rays finished ahead of the Boston was due to their record in one run games. Tampa Bay finished 29-18 in those close contests, while the Red Sox were 22-23. If the Rays go .500 in one-run games, Boston finishes in first place in the AL East easily.

In fact, if the Rays play .500 in one run games against the Red Sox, Boston finishes in first place. Look at the run difference in the series between the two teams:

Head to Head

2008	Red Sox	Rays
Wins	8	10
Runs/Game	4.8	3.7
Walks	78	74
Home Runs	18	18
Hits	152	142

The Red Sox should have gone 11-7 against Tampa Bay, not 8-10. In one run games, the Rays were 6-0 against Boston.

The easy explanation was that the Rays were lucky in these games, but that may not be the whole story. While the pitching staffs as a whole are pretty even, the Rays trot out a better bullpen. Against the Red Sox, Rays relievers held the Boston batters to a .227/.350/.349 line. They bent, walking batters, but didn't break, preventing the hits that might drive in those walks. Rays batters posted a .246/.357/.369 line against the Boston bullpen, just a bit better. The trick for the Rays was hanging with the Boston starters, so the bullpen could keep the game close late, and the luck could happen.

Note, however, that luck sometimes balances. The Red Sox put 14 more men on than the Rays via a hit or walk over the course of the 18 game series. That doesn't seem to be enough to justify a 20 run difference in Boston's favor. With runners in scoring position, the Red Sox hit .242 head-to-head, while the Rays hit .176. That poor a batting average in those situation is also a bit of luck, just in the opposite direction. If the Rays get a few more hits in those key situations, then the run difference between the teams is a lot lower, and they look more evenly matched.

One non-statistical aspect of this series; the Rays and the Red Sox have a healthy dislike for each other due to a history that led to the Crisp/Shields fight. I doubt it will make a difference in who wins, but we're sure to see some hard-nosed play whenever there's a chance for a collision.

I really wanted to pick the Rays to win the ALCS. Despite their record in close games, despite their home field advantage, Boston deserves to be the favorite in this series. As we saw in their ALDS against the Angels, the Red Sox come in extremely well prepared for their opponents. I don't see a huge advantage, however. The Rays luck this season worked both for and against them, especially against Boston. Flipping a coin might be just as good. The Red Sox are my favorite, but with just a 51% chance of winning the series.

Red Sox batters vs. Rays, 2008.

Rays batters vs. Red Sox, 2008.

Red Sox pitchers vs. Rays, 2008.

Rays pitchers vs. Red Sox, 2008.

The Dodgers and Phillies kick off the NLCS tonight with Derek Lowe facing Cole Hamels. Lowe picked up the win in his LDS start against the Cubs. Coming off a great September, Lowe continued to pound the strike zone, collecting six Ks in his six inning of work with just one walk. The Cubs hit him however, with seven hits and a home run, the long ball something he didn't see the previous month. Of course, he spent September toiling against fairly weak offenses. Lowe did get the win in his only start against the Phillies this season, allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings. He won't be facing Kyle Kendrick, however.

Cole Hamels totally shut down the Brewers offense in his LDS start. He was efficient and unhittable as he allowed just two hits and a walk to the Brewers while striking out nine. Over eight innings, he threw 101 pitches, 67 for strikes. (Brad Lidge threw 1/3 the amount of Hamels pitches in the ninth, 35.) The Dodgers are a better team against left-handed pitchers, with a 15 rise in batting average, 24 points in OBA and 29 points in slugging percentage. Lowe handled the Dodgers well this season, giving up four earned runs in 14 innings with 12 strikeouts and two walks. Hamels weakness, however, is the home run. He puts so few batters on base, however, that he posted ERAs under three in five of the six month he pitched this season.

Enjoy!

The Phillies Phanatic launches an attack ad against the Dodgers. Just what are they dodging?

Terry Francona set the Red Sox rotation today:

We're going to go, Daisuke, Becket, Lester, Wakefield now. We reserve the right if something crazy happens in the middle to make a change but that's the way we're set up to go. The reasoning is actually pretty simple. I think I thought this was how it would shakeout even before we did the media after we beat Anaheim. I just needed to take the proper time to talk it through. It gives people rest, not too much rest not too little. It's probably the best way where we don't have one guy going on 8, one guy going on regular. Keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest at this time of year is huge and we'll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much. And the guys that pitch 1, 2, and 3 are lined up for 5, 6, and 7. Nobody's going to throw 3 so having those three twice is really what's important regardless of how it's lined up.

It seems Terry isn't too concerned about the Home/Road breakdown, or he'd pitched Matsuzaka in games two and six.

The following table compares major batting and pitching stats for the Dodgers and Phillies with NL ranks:

NL Ranks

2008	Dodgers	Phillies
Runs/Game	4.32 (13th)	4.93 (2nd-T)
Batting Avg.	.264 (5th)	.255 (10th)
On-Base Average	.333 (6th)	.332 (7th)
Slugging Pct.	.399 (13th)	.438 (2nd)
ERA	3.68 (1st)	3.88 (4th)
Strikeouts/9 IP	7.4 (5th)	6.7 (12th)
Walks/9 IP	3.0 (2nd)	3.3 (5th-T)
HR/200 IP	17.0 (1st)	22.1 (7th)

This series matches the strength of the Phillies lineup, their power, against the strength of the Dodgers pitching staff, their ability to prevent home runs. Against the Brewers the Phillies lineup lived up to their season stats. They didn't do a great job of hitting for average or getting on base, but many of their hits wound up going for extra bases. They moved the few men who reached base a great distance with those long hits.

The Dodgers, however, led the NL in preventing home runs. In their sweep against the Cubs, LA pitchers gave up just one dinger. If the Dodgers can reduce the pop of the Phillies hitters, they reduce Philadelphia to a feeble offensive team.

One large caveat to the Dodgers strength is that it's mostly a park effect. Los Angeles pitchers allowed 49 home runs at home, 74 on the road. The Phillies can sting the ball in any park with 266 extra-base hits at home and 275 on the road. Shutting down Philadelphia's power is not a given. As you can see in the home/road split for the Dodgers pitchers against the Phillies, it was the singles and walks, not the extra base hits that suffered in Los Angeles. That leads us to the very interesting head-to-head record for the teams:

Head to Head

2008	Dodgers	Phillies
Wins	4	4
Runs/Game	3.4	5.4
Walks	28	30
Home Runs	7	9

Ryan Howard is a perfect example of how the Dodgers both succeeded and failed against the Phillies offense. LA pitchers kept Howard off base as he batted .113 with a .250 OBA. His four hits, however, counted two doubles and two home runs, good for nine RBI. If the Dodgers can't stop the power, they can't stop the Phillies.

Both teams swept their opponent at home. All four games in Dodger Stadium were decided by two runs or less. All four games in Philadelphia were decided by three runs or more. Since all eight took place in August, it's a good proxy for how the LCS will play out, since the players for both teams were in place.

The Phillies also took advantage of the Dodgers weakness against left-handed batters. The link above also shows the Dodgers pitchers against left and right handed Phillies, and lefties hit about 40 points higher and slugged about 80 points higher. In fact Joe Torre is thinking of starting Clayton Kershaw in game four to counter that weakness.

I also like the way the Phillies rotation sets up for this series. Hamels and Myers, the power pitchers, go at home where keeping men off base is important. Moyer and Blanton, the control pitchers, take the mound at Dodger Stadium where runs are more scarce.

The Dodgers do have one thing going for them that they lacked for most of the regular season, Rafael Furcal. Los Angeles' record stood at 18-14 after games on May 5th, the last time Furcal would play until September 24. This season, he brought a high on-base average to the Dodgers leadoff spot, .434 batting first this season. Overall, the Dodgers leadoff hitters posted a .351 OBA, showing how much Rafael contributed. His .467 LDS OBA helped set the table even better for Ramirez and Ethier.

The two teams are very close. The Dodgers pitchers are hot, but the Phillies pitchers are also very good. Utley, Howard and Burrell are a match for Manny, Ethier and Martin. Furcal gives the Dodgers a bit of an edge on offense, as he's a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. The Dodgers also dropped their unproductive players, as you're not seeing much of Kent, Pierre, Jones and Garciaparra in the playoffs. Charlie Manuel platoons well, however, so I suspect he'll win the individual matchups.

It's a close series to call. The Phillies home field advantage in my mind gives them a slight edge. I'm picking the Phillies with a low probability of winning, 52%.

Dodgers batters vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies batters vs. Dodgers, 2008.

Dodgers pitchers vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies pitchers vs. Dodgers, 2008.

Phillies Nation is a bit peeved that game two of the NLCS starts at 4:15 PM EDT on a Friday afternoon. I'm just happy the TBS/Fox split allows us to see both games, instead of flipping between Fox and FX between pitches.

Lance Berkman breaks two ties with one swing of the bat. With the Astros-Giants game tied at seven in the top of the ninth, Lance leads off with a solo shot to put Houston on top 8-7. He also breaks the tie with Chase Utley for the major league lead in home runs. Berkman now leads with 15. Lance is 29 for 50 in May with seven doubles and seven home runs.

The Astros ruined a good start by Tim Lincecum. He struck out 10, but only lasted six innings. Erstad and Lee homered in the eighth to wipe out the Giants lead Erstad's three run shot tying the game at seven. The Astros have 17 home runs in May after hitting 30 in April. If they hold on for the win, they'll be in the wild card seat in the National League.

Paul Hoynes posts the game 7, especially the Skinner hold:

They trailed, 3-2, but Jake Westbrook was hot, and the offense, after two games of doing nothing, was stirring.

Kenny Lofton, with one out in the seventh, lifted a fly ball to short left field against Hideki Okajima. Shortstop Julio Lugo went back but dropped the ball as Lofton hustled into second. Franklin Gutierrez, fouling off two 1-2 pitches, sent a single past third.

It bounced hard off the grandstand in foul territory and back into left field where Manny Ramirez was waiting. Lofton was already at third, and the ball was still rolling in the outfield. The game should have been tied, but third base coach Joel Skinner stopped Lofton.

It was a mistake that will live in Indians postseason history right alongside Orel Hershiser losing his release point in Game 1 of the 1995 World Series.

All the momentum the Indians had been gathering was pointed to that moment. When it produced nothing, the Indians disappeared into the October night not to be seen again until mid-February in Winter Haven, Fla.

"It's a tough corner out there when the ball heads that way," said Tribe manager Eric Wedge. "It's tough to read if it's ricocheting back to the shortstop to left-center. I think it was just tough for him to read."

Having seen the play a few more times, Skinner's mistake was not realizing that Manny Ramirez switched personalities. The brilliant defender who nailed the throw to second base in Lofton's previous at bat went back to the auditioning for the role of Adbul-Jabbar in the remake of Airplane. Manny wasn't hustling after the ball. If Manny is going full steam toward it, holding Lofton was a much better call. But Manny was content to let the run score. Skinner had a split second to make his decision, and it cost the Indians a tie.

Then again, given the way the Red Sox pounded the ball in the eighth, it probably didn't matter.

After the first four games of the ALCS, the Red Sox held a slight lead on the Indians in OBA, .348 to .346. They weren't out-scoring Cleveland, however, due to double plays wiping out some of those base runners. Boston kept hitting into double plays, but over the last three games they put so many men on base that the DPs didn't hurt as much. For the series, the Red Sox posted a .395 OBA to the Indians .302, about a forty five point swing in both directions. With batters constantly reaching, mistakes by the Indians' pitchers turned into big innings and a big comeback for the Red Sox.

Josh Beckett wins the ALCS MVP. He's very humble, mentioning that there are a number of MVPs on the team and giving lots of credit to Varitek as his catcher. Beckett struck out 18 and walked just one in 14 innings, totally dominating the Indians. He'll face Francis in game one. Jeff has defeated two very good pitchers in the first two rounds, but he'll have his work cut out for him in game one of the World Series.

The Boston Red Sox win 11-2 and are going to the World Series. Pedroia and Youkilis hit big tonight, combining to go six for ten with seven RBI and five runs scored. They each doubled and homered. The top four hitters in the Red Sox lineup each posted OBAs over .400 and slugging percentage over .500 in the series.

The bullpen pitched four shutout innings giving up four hits but no walks. Matsuzaka gets the win, making two nations happy today. Teams down 3-1 forcing a seventh game are now 11-4. The Red Sox accomplished the feat this year by outscoring the Indians 30-5 over the last three games. Six of the seven contests in the series were decided by four runs or more, although game two and seven were close until the end.

It was a great series, with both teams looking unbeatable at times. I have a lot of sympathy for the Indians, I would have loved to see them end their World Championship drought. However, we have the top team in each league in run differential meeting in the World Series. It should be a good one. Congratulations to the Red Sox on a great comeback and winning the AL pennant!

The Cleveland season needs a miracle. Peralta, Lofton, and Gutierrez try to get something going.

Update: Peralta floats one into left for a single. They need a lot more of those.

Update: Lofton lines to left, where Ellsbury makes a nice sliding catch.

Update: Gutierrez flies out to center, then Blake hits one deep to the triangle, and Crisp makes a great catch to end the game. The Red Sox are going to the World Series!

Update: Crisp slammed into the wall, and limps off the field. Making the catch was more than worth the pain, I bet.

J.D. Drew follows a Lowell double with a hard single to center. Lowell scores the sixth run of the game for Boston extending the lead to four.

Drew and Matsuzaka each did a good job of saving their reputations the last two games.

So if the Red Sox hold on, do you give the MVP to Youkilis or Beckett?

Update: The Indians are falling apart here as Blake and Peralta go for a pop up down the leftfield line. The collide, and the ball lands fair. It bounces into the seats for a double, and Ellsbury is intentionally walked. The bases are loaded for Lugo.

Update: Lugo strikes out. Home Run Pedroia is up next.

Update: Pedroia finds the gap in left center and clears the bases with a double. Betancourt picks a bad night to fall apart on the mound, and the probability of the Red Sox winning this game just skyrocketted.

Update: Lewis comes in, and Youkilis hits one off the coke bottles above the monster seats. That's the third hit of the night for Kevin, and he's hitting .500 for the series with a .929 slugging percentage. It's 11-2 Boston.

Update: Ortiz strikes out. Papelbon needs to get three outs before he allows nine runs.

Okajima starts his third inning of work, and Sizemore bunts for a base hit to start the eighth.

Update: Cabrera lines one up the middle to put runners at first and second. Papelbon is coming on to try to get the first six out save of his career.

Update: Hafner has no chance as he swings at three pitches and misses two, including the third one.

Update: Martinez hits what should be a double play ball to second, but both Pedroia and Lugo can't get a handle on the ball, and they just get the runner at second. First and third with two out for Garko.

Update: Papelbon gets ahead of Garko 1-2, but then Ryan drives the next pitch to deep center. Ellsbury runs it down, for the third out and the Indians threat goes by the boards, as does the heart of the Cleveland lineup. The Red Sox are three outs away from the World Series.

Betancourt relievers Westbrook to start the bottom of the seventh. Westbrook pitched a good game, keeping the Indians in the contest. Now it's up to the bullpen and the offense to win the pennant.

Update: A bad two batters for Blake as he follows up the double play with an error to put Ellsbury at second with no one out.

Update: Dustin the wind as Pedroia smacks a ball into the monster seats for a 5-2 Boston lead. The Red Sox capitalize on an error when the Indians could not.

Update: Those are the first runs Betancourt allowed in the post season.

Update: That's all the Red Sox get, but it may be enough as Cleveland is down to six outs to score three runs.

The Red Sox make their first fielding mistake of the night. Lugo goes back into left on a pop up, calls off Ramirez, then drops the ball. Lofton winds up at second, the tying run.

Update: Gutierrez lines one right over the third base bag for a hit. Skinner holds up Lofton at third, thinking the carom off the wall was going right to Manny. Okajima then induces Blake to hit into a 5-4-3 GDP to end the inning. It's the first time they've retired Blake tonight. A bad call by an ump cost the Indians a run the last time Lofton was up, and now a conservative call by the third base coach may have done the same. I don't think you can fault Skinner too, much, however. That was a tough one to call.

For the second inning in a row, Westbrook retires the side in order, striking out two. He only struck out one over the first four innings.

Okajima relieves Matsuzaka to start the sixth. Dice-K threw 88 pitches, 62 for strikes. After starting off efficient through the first two innings, the Indians did a better job of battling him over Daisuke's last three. He is in line to get the win.

Update: Okajima retires the side in order, getting two fly outs and a grounder.

Westbrook pitches his best inning of the night in the fifth, retiring the side in order for the first time. He struck out both Youkilis and Ramirez, his second and third Ks of the game.

Kenny Lofton smacks one off the leftfield wall leading off the fifth, and Manny plays the ball perfectly, throws a strike to second, and Lofton is called out. Unfortunately, it looks like Pedroia tagged the bag and not the runner, but Lofton didn't argue the play. It may have cost them a run as Gutierrez follows with a single. A very nice play by Manny, however.

Update: Blake gets another hit, and the bad call at second looms large. Matsuzaka faces Sizemore with two on.

Update: Sizemore hits a ball deep to center for a sacrifice fly. That makes the score 3-2 in favor of Boston. A close game again.

Update: Cabrera battle Matsuzaka, fouling off a number of pitches, but Dice-K wins as a swing and a miss end the inning. The 2-4 hitters for Boston are due up in the bottom of the inning.

Jake Westbrook has been a very frustrating pitcher for the Red Sox in this series. He just induced his sixth double play, the fifth with runners in scoring position. For the fourth inning in a row, the leadoff batter reached, but for the first time he doesn't allow a run. The Red Sox picked up nine hits in four innings, but only three runs.

Travis Hafner goes the other way and bangs a ball off the wall for a double. He's in scoring position with one out in the fourth and Victor Martinez up.

Update: Man, Martinez is slow. He hits one off Matsuzaka's glove, and Dice-K has forever to throw him out at first. Hafner is unable to advance.

Update: Garko battles Matsuzaka and Garko finally delivers an RBI double off the wall in left center. He stayed alive long enough for Matsuzaka to make a mistake, and Ryan crushed it. It's 3-1 Boston.

Update: Peralta grounds out to end the inning, but the Indians are on the board. Now then need to put a zero on the board in the bottom of the fourth.

Youkilis doubles, then scores on a ground out and a sacrifice fly. Westbrook gave up seven hits through three innings. I appreciate that he's not pitching terribly, but at this rate the Indians are going to lose 9-0. Cleveland might want to try the no-runs strategy in the fourth.

Casey Blake, the best hitter for Cleveland during the LCS, singles in the third with two out. But Matsuzaka picks up his second strikeout of the night against Sizemore to end the inning. The Indians are only one for eight putting the ball in play. They did work Daisuke more in that inning, getting his pitch count up to 44.

The Indians seem to be employing a one-run strategy on defense. The Red Sox get a double from Varitek and a single from Ellsbury, but Lugo hits into another rally killing double play. With none out, however, the Red Sox score a run. With six hits in two innings, you might expect the Indians to be in a bigger hole. Now it's up to the Cleveland offense to take the opportunity given by the defense.

Daisuke Matsuzaka threw just eight pitches in the second inning as he continues to work efficiently. Six up, six down through two innings for Cleveland.

David Ortiz is up with two on after two singles. He should bunt here because it's obviously going to be a close game. :-)

Update: Ortiz doesn't even square up, and Westbrook gets him to swing and miss at two pitches on his hands. One out for Ramirez.

Update: Ramirez hits a hard grounder right at Peralta, but the ball takes a giant hop when it hits the lip of the infield and goes over Jhonny's head. Pedroia scores from second and the Red Sox lead 1-0. They are 3 for 3 putting the ball in play tonight.

Update: Make it four for four as Lowell lines a single into left to load the bases for J.D. Drew.

Update: Another rally killer double play as Drew bounces the ball up the middle to Peralta. Interestingly, Westbrook got the two lefties he faced, but the four righties each collected a hit. During the regular season, lefties hit Westbrook better than righties.

Dice-K pitches a good first inning, getting the obligatory strikeout from Hafner. He also only used 13 pitches.

The pre-game show just pointed out that the closers haven't had a big role in this series. Since five of the six games were won by four runs or more, there's been almost no need for the saver to come in. Which is why when people ask me about the importance of a closer, I tell them it's more important to generate a big lead.

The sun won't come out tomorrow for one of these teams. The season for the Indians and Red Sox comes down to a warm night in Boston with their number three starters on the mound. Can Daisuke deliver? Can Westbrook's sinker sink the Sox? Will Wedge or Francona make a strategic blunder that turns victory into defeat? Will Pronk poke? Will Manny be Manny?

Westbrook handled the Red Sox much better than the Yankees. He didn't walk a batter in his start against New York, but the Yankees pounded the balls he put in the strike zone. Jake didn't try to be quite as fine against the Red Sox, walking three. Boston picked up hits against Jake, but by keeping the ball on the ground he induced three double plays, two of them with men in scoring position. The Red Sox need to try to get Westbrook to elevate his sinker so the Sox can hit line drives instead of ground balls.

The Red Sox committed to $100 million dollars too bring Matsuzaka to the United States, and the eyes of two nations are on him tonight. Red Sox Nation hopes to his first two post-season starts turn out to be flukes. There's nothing on Dice-K in the English language Japanese news yet. The big difference between Matsuzaka in the playoffs and during the regular season is his hits allowed. He held opponents to a .246 BA in the regular season, but they've hit .317 against him so far in the post season.

These finished the regular season even in wins, and the difference in the post season is Cleveland's one loss to the Yankees. The series so far saw big score differences in each game except the one pitched by these two starters. Westbrook and Matsuzaka approach the game differently, but they are evenly matched as well. I'm hoping for a close contest to end the AL season.

Enjoy!

In terms of strikeouts and reaching base on balls in play, the series between the Indians and Red Sox is going as predicted:

American League Championship Series, 2007

	Indians	Red Sox
AB + SF	211	211
Home Runs	8	8
Strikeouts	59	36
Fieldable Balls in Play	144	167
BABIP	.306	.323

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is defined as (Hits-HR)/(AB-(HR+K)) and gives a quick and dirty approximation of 1-DER. The Red Sox collected ten more hits in the series due to striking out less and playing better defense. Combined with thirteen more walks, Boston leads Cleveland in runs scored 40-30. However, Boston held the BABIP advantage through the first four games as well. Bad timing and double plays kept them from winning in three of those games.

Both managers talked a good game after Boston's game six victory:

"It just has to stop and it has to stop tonight," said Cleveland manager Eric Wedge. "They need to go to bed tonight with a clear head and think good thoughts. They have experienced a lot. It's another step for us, but it's not completely unchartered. We handle these things pretty well."

"We're excited," said Sox manager Terry Francona. "We'd be crazy not to be excited to have a Game 7 at Fenway. We get to play. I'm glad we're playing at home. As far as the game goes, the momentum will be with both starting pitchers. What happened tonight won't dictate tomorrow."

When I looked at this series I thought the Red Sox and Indians would split the matchups between the 1-2 starters, then take two out of three from Westbrook and Byrd. Boston's handled the Sabathia-Carmona combination just fine, but has yet to beat the 3-4 starters as they face Westbrook tonight.

Curt Schilling was certainly the man tonight. He pitched seven great innings, picking up five strikeouts without walking a batter. He also rested the bullpen for tomorrow as only Lopez and Gagne pitched in relief.

Drew, of course, fixed his reputation with the team. As Bill James said to us at the end of last Saturday's game, "the crowd was so tired, they forgot to boo J.D. Drew." They remembered to cheer his tonight.

Kudos to Aaron Laffey on the Cleveland side for saving their bullpen. He pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in his first appearance of the post season. He allowed just one hit and one walk.

Travis Hafner's offensive woes continue, as his 0 for 4 night reduced his batting average in the LCS to .130.

The team go into game 7 with a fairly even pitching matchup. I have a hard time believing that Jake Westbrook can fool the Red Sox hitters twice. However, Matsuzaka hasn't been over powering in the post season either. The series could easily come down to which bullpen pitches better, including Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and C.C.Sabathia. It should be exciting.

Correction: It was Lopez used in relief.

A Cleveland comeback is possible! Eric Gagne is in the game!

Update: Hafner gets his bat on the ball, but flies to center for the first out.

Update: Martinez grounds back to the box for the second out.

Update: Lowell shows some flair, bare-handing a grounder and throwing Garko out at first. We're getting a game seven.

Manny Ramirez drives in Kevin Youkilis with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth to make the score 11-2 in favor of Boston. That's nine RBI for Manny in the series.

Update: Lowell singles in a run, his seventh RBI of the series. A Cleveland comeback in this game is starting to look impossible.

Update: That's it for Boston. The Indians have three outs to get ten runs.

Garko triples leading off the seventh and scores on a sacrifice fly. Garko's having a good series, hitting .316 with a .474 slugging percentage.

Update: That's all they get in the seventh, and Schilling tips his hat to the crowd as he reaches the dugout. He walks none and strikes out five through seven innings. The Indians were 6 for 21 on balls in play, 5 for 20 on fieldable balls. The Red Sox defense played very well behind Schilling tonight.

Schilling strikes out Hafner for the second time tonight and the tenth time in the series. He swung at an eye level pitch that was also off the plate. He looks totally lost up there. He's been a huge offensive hole in the third spot for Cleveland, batting .136 with a .208 OBA.

Carmona just walked Ramirez and Lowell to bring up Drew with men on base again. Carmona has walked four so far tonight, and he's only in the third inning.

Update: Drew grounds a single into centerfield, extending the Red Sox lead to 5-1. That's it for Carmona as he leaves with no one out in the third and men on first and second. The two big guns for the Indians come up short in both their LCS starts.

Update: Ellsbury delivers a single against Perez and the Red Sox lead 6-1.

Update: Lugo doubles in two as the game moves into rout territory.

Update: It's gone from rout to Keystone Cops. Youkilis finally gets a ball out of the infield, banging one hard off the Green Monster. He gets in a run down between first and second. Carmona chases Kevin back toward first, then makes a throw that hits Kevin in the head and gets by the first baseman. Youkilis is safe, Pedroia scores, and the Red Sox lead 10-1. The WBC mercy rule will get invoked soon.

Update: Laffey finally gets the Indians out of the inning. But their nine run deficit is no laughing matter.

Pedroia goes long, hitting the wall for a double and Youkilis picks up his second infield hit of the night. But Ortiz grounds hard into a double play. The Red Sox set a record for DPs in an LCS with eleven. It's also their seventh rally killing double play, one with men in scoring position.

Victor Martinez leads off the second inning with a home run. That's his first home run of the LCS and the second of the playoffs. When Schilling pitcher for Arizona, he tended to give up a good number of home runs, but because he kept the bases empty, they tended to be solo shots. The Red Sox will gladly give up solo home runs as long as they hit theirs with runners on. Consider it revenge for game four.

The Red Sox are playing the short game, putting two men on without getting the ball out of the infield. Ortiz is up with men on first and second after two infield hits.

Update: Ortiz walks to load the bases. Manny must have cleaned his helmet a bit, since I can make out the B under all the pine tar.

Update: Nice job by Carmona, getting Manny to swing over a pitch low on the inside corner. One out.

Update: Lowell flies to shallow right on the first pitch, Pedrioa can't score. Two out.

Update: J.D. Drew just redeemed his season. Carmona fell behind 3-1, then Drew got all of a pitch down the middle of the plate, low enough that he could get a good upper cut on it. It was a laser into the camera well in centerfield, a grand slam to put the Red Sox up 4-0. Those are Drew's first RBI of the LCS.

Update: After a Varitek walk, Ellsbury grounds out to end the inning. Carmona was wild in the inning. On the other hand, he induced two ground balls to start the inning that his defense failed to turn into outs. In that sense, he did his job, the grounders were just well placed.

Curt Schilling records two ground outs and a strikeout as he retires the Indians in order in the first. Hafner strikes out for the ninth time in twenty LCS at bats.

Jacoby Ellsbury starts over Coco Crisp tonight for the Red Sox.

The Indians and Red Sox return to Fenway Park tonight for game six of the ALCS. In their last game at Fenway, with the same Carmona/Schilling matchup, the teams took 5 1/4 hours to play eleven innings. Get a pot of coffee on if you're going to watch the game tonight.

If Fausto Carmona starts, the game goes eleven innings. He pitched brilliantly against the Yankees, going nine innings but getting more support from the Canadian Soldiers than the Cleveland offense. The Red Sox, however, approached Fausto with selectivity, drawing five walks in just four innings, negating Carmona's five strikeouts over that period. In both cases, however, Cleveland pulled out the victory in extra innings.

Like Carmona, Schilling pitched much better in the ALDS than in his ALCS start. He shut out the Angels for seven innings, giving up just six hits and one walk. But in 4 2/3 innings against Cleveland, he allowed nine hits, including two home runs. Since his ability to strike out batters diminished this season, Curt survives by making good pitches in the strike zone. The Indians are getting a lot of hits on their balls in play this series, so that's a bad sign for Curt.

The teams are even at 28 run scored apiece over the first five games. Cleveland, however, hasn't received much production from their designated hitter, Travis Hafner. Compare his numbers to David Ortiz in the series so far:

2007 ALCS

Stat	Ortiz	Hafner
Batting Average	.400	.158
On-Base Average	.522	.238
Slugging Average	.733	.316

Hafner's also struck out eight times, while Papi's only gone down on strikes