Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 30, 2008
Game of the Day
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The Twins and White Sox finish up the regular season tonight as they play a 163rd game to decide the AL Central winner, the team to take on the Rays in the ALDS. Nick Blackburn matches up against John Danks. Both sport eleven wins on the season although Danks ERA stands over 0.6 runs lower than Blackburn's.

Both pitchers come into the game with 187 innings pitched, making their total directly comparable. Danks win in strikeouts and home runs. He lead Blackburn 155 to 93 in Ks. The extra balls in play off Blackburn show up in their batting average allowed. Danks comes in at .251, Nick .295. Blackburn allowed 22 home runs to John's 15.

Due to his low number of walks, however, 14 of the homers against Nick were solo shots. Danks didn't post the extremely low walk rate of Blackburn, but he was still very good. Twelve of his 15 homers allowed came with no one on.

Danks is simply the better pitcher. Combined with a rested Bobby Jenks, the White Sox hold the advantage on the mound. I could see winning today costing Chicago the first round, however. Danks is their best starter, but by pitching in the playoff game, he'll only be able to start once in the ALDS. If the Twins get by, however, they'll be able to go with a well rested Francisco Liriano in game one. A team can't win if it doesn't play, however, and the White Sox get the edge tonight.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
September 29, 2008
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The White Sox host the Detroit Tigers with Chicago's season on the line this afternoon. A win by the White Sox sends them into a playoff with Minnesota for the AL Central title Tuesday. A loss sends Minnesota to Tampa Bay to play the Rays in the ALDS.

Gavin Floyd gets the ball for the White Sox. A regular starter for the first time in his career, Floyd responded with 200 innings and a 3.91 ERA. His main strength lies in his walk rate, a good one batter every three innings. His strikeout and home run rates are unremarkable.

He started the season strong, but July was the only month he didn't see his ERA rise. Gavin's September ERA stands at 5.40 coming into this game. Detroit failed to hang a loss on him in four starts, but his Floyd's 4.24 ERA against them indicated they hit well enough to give him trouble.

Detroit send Freddy Garcia to the mound. He took most of the year to recover from shoulder surgery and pitched just ten innings this season. He went five innings in both starts, shutting down Texas but getting pounded by Kansas City. He has struck out nine batters in his ten innings, a good sign. However, given the matchup, I'd put a high probability on a playoff game Tuesday.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 28, 2008
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The Marlins and Mets get things started at 1:10 PM EDT this afternoon with Scott Olsen facing Oliver Perez. Perez takes the Tom Glavine mantle from last season, the lefty you just don't trust enough. He's been up and down in September, with two good performances, two bad performances, and one in the middle. The Mets pounded Scott Olsen this season. He's 0-3 in four starts against New York, the Mets hitting six home runs in 22 innings.

Mike Mussina tries to become the oldest pitcher to win 20 games for the first time. Jamie Moyer set the record in 2001, winning 20 for the first time at age 38. Mussina is 39. Mike is 1-2 against Boston this year with a 4.57 ERA. He'll have a tough assignment as Daisuke Matsuzaka goes for his 19th win. The Yankees did know Dice-K around in his only start against them this season.

Cliff Lee won't make his start as he came down with a stiff neck, so Bryan Bullington is charged with keeping the White Sox out of the playoffs. He's allowed three home runs in 9 2/3 innings for the Tribe this season, a weakness that plays to Chicago's strength. Mark Buehrle tries to win 15 games for the fifth time in his career. He's pitching well down the stretch, posting a 2.51 ERA in September. The White Sox need a win to insure the season continues into Monday.

At the same time, the Cubs try to cost the Brewers a playoff spot. Angel Guzman takes on CC Sabathia, making his third start in a row on three days rest. Maybe another success will get teams talking about a four-man rotation once again. In two starts against the Cubs, however, CC is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA. This is the team he was hired to beat. Guzman is not a very good pitcher. In his short career he's walked a lot of batters and given up tons of hits despite excellent strikeout numbers.

Finally, Brandon Duckworth faces Scott Baker as a Twins win could give them the AL Central title outright with a Chicago loss. In six starts, Duckworth walked as many as he struck out , 15 of each in 32 innings. It's a strikeout rate too low and a walk rate too high, the worst of both worlds. A shutout by Scott Baker could propel him from 13th in the AL in ERA to fifth.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 27, 2008
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On what might be the penultimate day of the regular season, the Mets send Johan Santana to the mound needing a win. A loss puts the Mets out of the NL East race and gives the Brewers a chance to clinch the NL Wild Card later in the afternoon. Johan takes on Ricky Nolasco and the Florida Marlins. Santana hasn't lost a game since June (he was 1-4 that month despite a stellar ERA). His 2.26 ERA since the start of June is third best in the majors. Nolasco holds an identical 15-7 record. His strikeout and walk rate remains excellent, and his only weakness is a tendency to give up the long ball.

Milwaukee, Minnesota and Philadlephia all have 3:55 starts on Fox, but I'm sure I'm going to see the Yankees-Red Sox here. It would be nice on a day like this for Fox to use their cable networks to make all four of these games available.

Gil Meche and Glen Perkins face off in Minnesota. A win by the Twins means the worst that can happen is they force the White Sox to play a makeup game Monday. Meche is having his best year in terms of home runs allowed, giving up longballs at a rate of 18.6 per 200 innings. Perkins holds a 12-4 record despite a 4.50 ERA. The Twins scored seven or more runs in nine of his 25 starts.

A Phillies win gives them the division no matter what happens in the Mets game, and Jamie Moyer host John Lannan in an effort to secure the playoff berth. The two hold similar ERAs by very different records. Lannan is 9-14, but 5-5 on the road with a 3.08 ERA. Moyer is 2-0 against the Nationals this year with a 2.82 ERA.

Ben Sheets returns to the mound for the Brewers, who can clinch at least a tie for the wild card with a win. The righty last pitched 10 day ago, lasting just two innings. He'll face Ted Lilly of the Cubs. The Brewers knocked Ted around a bit this year, hitting three home runs in 10 2/3 innings.

The White Sox continue their series with Cleveland, needing a win to at least keep pace with the Indians. A loss, couple with a Minnesota win puts them 1 1/2 game back in the AL Central and forces them to need help to make the playoffs. Zach Jackson faces Javier Vazquez. Jackson doesn't walk many, but his low strikeout rate leads to lots of hits and runs. Vazquez hasn't repeated his fine August, posting a 4.94 ERA in September.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 26, 2008
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There are five games today that matter, and all the teams competing for a playoff berth are at home.

Washington travels to Philadelphia in a game threatened by rain. The Nationals send Collin Balester against Joe Blanton. Balestar keeps his walks low but tends to give up home runs. He's only walked one in two starts against the Phillies, but lost both games despite a 3.75 ERA. Blaton brought his ERA down 1/2 run with the Phillies compared to his time with the Athletics. The run support helps, as he's 3-0 with nine no decisions.

The Mets host the Marlins in another game threatened by rain. It's a great matchup of young pitchers as Chris Volstad takes on Mike Pelfrey. Volstad only allowed 3 home runs in 78 1/3 innings pitched. He's also held opponents to a .216 BA with runners in scoring position. Pelfrey's pitched much better at Shea Stadium this season, posting a 2.94 ERA at home and allowing just five homers in 113 1/3 innings there.

The Cubs send one of their three aces against the Brewers tonight as Ryan Dempster takes on Jeff Suppan. If Dempster pitches decently he'll end the season with the lowest ERA of his career. Suppan holds a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Cubs this season. On top of that, he's allowed three unearned runs.

The Twins host the red hot Royals as Kyle Davies tries to derail Minnesota's playoff hopes. He's part of Kansas City's strong finish, posting a 2.45 ERA in September allowing just one home run. Francisco Liriano gets the call to keep the Twins ahead of the White Sox. He's 6-0 with a 2.05 ERA since returning to the majors, and is coming off a great start against Tampa Bay.

Finally the White Sox host the Indians with Scott Lewis facing John Danks. Lewis won all three of his starts, allowing no runs against the Twins and Orioles. Danks allowed just two home runs over the last two months of the season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:31 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 25, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Tampa Rays send Scott Kazmir to the mound to try to win home field advantage in the first round. He'll face Armando Galarraga and the Tigers. Kazmir is another nice example of how the Rays defense helped their pitching shave two runs off their ERA. He gave up 196 hits in 206 innings in 2007, 117 hits in 147 innings this year.

The Cubs try to reduce the probability of the Mets making the playoffs as Rich Harden takes on Pedro Martinez. It's the chance to make up the proverbial win for the Mets. Harden won't make it easy as he's struck out 85 in 65 Cubs innings, good for a 1.66 ERA. Pedro doesn't have it down the stretch, going 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in September.

The Brewers also get a chance to make up a win. Yovani Gallardo returns to try to save the day against Zach Duke. Gallardo made three good starts this year before injuries shut him down. He struck out batters in his minor league rehab, but also gave up a high number of hits.

The Twins go for the sweep of the White Sox as the three game series concludes in Minnesota. Whoever wins the game holds first place in the AL Central. A Twins win makes the White Sox playing Monday more likely. Gavin Floyd faces Kevin Slowey. Floyd is having a rough September, giving up seven home runs in 27 2/3 innings. Slowey is 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA in the same time period. He's keeping the ball in the park, but giving up a lot of hits.

Greg Maddux gets a chance to clinch the NL West for the Dodgers against the Padres Jake Peavy. The deal for Maddux was the opposite of the Manny deal. Greg has performed poorly, giving up hits and runs to the tune of a 5.71 ERA. Peavy, with his 2.77 ERA, deserves better than his 9-11 record.


Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 24, 2008
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Two pitchers get to try to prove their last starts were just flukes this evening. The Phillies send Brett Myers against Jo-Jo Reyes of the Braves. Myers pitched brilliantly since his return from the minors until his last start against Florida. The Marlins pounded him for 10 runs in four innings, collecting nine hits, two walks and a home run.

In New York, while the Cubs as a team already clinched the division and home field, Zambrano needs to show the follow up to his no-hitter was the outlier. He had just returned from his grand mother's funeral, so he was likely as shell-shocked as when the Astros faced him. Oliver Perez pitches for the Mets, who are sandwiched between the Phillies and Brewers in the battle for the NL East/Wild Card. Perez has an interesting disconnect in his home road splits. The opposition hits worse against Perez at Shea in terms of BA/OBA/Slug, but Perez's Shea ERA is higher than on the road.

CC Sabathia starts for the second time in a row on short rest, this time against the Pirates. The last time he took on Pittsburgh, he threw the controversial one-hitter that seemed to mark the start of the Brewers slide. He'll face Paul Maholm 0-2 against the Brewers in four starts.

The White Sox send Mark Buehrle against Nick Blackburn and the Twins as Chicago tries to get at least one win against Minnesota in this series. One win and Chicago controls their own destiny in the AL Central. Buehrle pitches poorly on the road, 4-8 with a 5.14 ERA. Blackburn pitches great at home, 7-3 with a 2.92 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:20 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 23, 2008
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The Boston Red Sox get to face a tougher pitcher than yesterday as they try to clinch a playoff berth. Cliff Lee makes his penultimate start of the season against Tim Wakefield. Lee walked as many as three men in a game for only the second time this season in his last start. The seven issued in those two starts comprises 23% of his total for the year. Tim Wakefiled appears to have lost it in September. He's allowed 13 runs, all earned in 12 innings of work. He's only walked four, but he allowed three home runs.

The Yankees send Mike Mussina out to try for win number 19 and to keep the Yankees chances alive if the Red Sox lose. He'll need to get by Jesse Litsch. Mussina is showing signs of fatigue, lasting less than six innings a start in September. The Yankees pounded Litsch in his two starts against New York. He gave up 17 hits in 8 innings of work, and his defense allowed five unearned runs on top of that.

One thing in Milwaukee's favor is a three-game series against the Pirates, the worst team in the NL Central. The Dave Bush/Jeff Karstens matchup should also favor Milwaukee. Karstens is a low BB, low K pitcher so it's no surprise the league is batting .288 against him. With a higher K total and a low walk rate, Bush has both a low batting average against and a low OBA allowed. He does tend to give up extra base hits, however.

The biggest game of the night involves the White Sox and the Twins as they send Javier Vazquez and Scott Baker to battle for the AL Central title. With Chicago's magic number standing at five, the Twins really need to sweep the series to have a chance at taking the division. That's the only way they make up the three losses. Chicago leads the season series 8-7, and all but four games ended in blow outs. The Twins need to keep the contests close, as they are 3-1 against the White Sox in one and two run games.

After a great August, Vazquez's walk and home run rate nearly doubled in September compared to last month. He's 2-0 against the Twins despite a 5.11 ERA, thanks to good run support. It's tough to go deep on Scott Baker in the Metrodome. He allows home runs at half the rate he does on the road. Like Vazquez, he's undefeated against the White Sox this season despite a 5.73 ERA. Something has to give.

Tim Lincecum pitches against Colorado in San Francisco tonight. He's always fun to watch, and another great performance enhances his Cy Young chances.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 22, 2008
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The Marlins and Reds play a make-up game this afternoon as Florida tries to keep their wild card hopes alive. They send Rickey Nolasco against Aaron Harang. Nolasco is undefeated in day games, 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA. I guess he does well against half-awake batters. :-) If Harang win, his 2007 record of 16-6 will be turned completely around as he'll go to 6-16. He's finally put it together in September with a 1.82 ERA.

Cleveland comes to Boston as the Red Sox can clinch a playoff berth. The Indians are tied with the Phillies for the best record in the majors since August 17th, 23-10. Boston, however, is tied for third at 20-12. The pitching matchup favors a Red Sox victory as Josh Beckett takes on Zach Jackson. Zach came over from Milwaukee in the Sabathia deal. He doesn't walk batters, but the balls in play against him usually fall for hits. Like last season, the time off for Beckett made him stronger as he's posted an 0.95 ERA in September, striking out 21 in 19 innings pitched.

The Cubs visit the Mets in a possible NLDS preview. If the playoffs started today, these teams would be facing each other in Chicago. Jason Marquis faces Jonathon Niese. Niese has a nice number of strikeouts so far, 9 in 11 innings, but his six walks leave something to be desired. Marquis should be tough on the Mets switch hitters as lefties bat about 45 points lower against Marqius than righties do.

Finally, Brandon Webb goes for his 22nd win against the reeling Cardinals. Todd Wellemeyer stands in opposition. Webb only struck out 10 so far in 20 September innings. Todd's great year is partially due to his .173 BA allowed with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 21, 2008
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The Red Sox can clinch a tie for the wild card with a win. Daisuke Matsuzaka takes a shot at it as he goes for his 18th win of the season against Toronto. Matsuzaka lowered his ERA nearly a run and a half versus his rookie season of 2007. That came from fewer home runs allowed, and lower hits allowed in general. He gave up 24.4 home runs per 200 innings in 2007, 14.0 in 2008. He'll face rookie Scott Richmond. I like that Richmond only walked one batter in 16 innings while striking out 13. It seems, however, he walking so few because batters find his pitches very hittable. He's allowed a .338 BA so far, and lefties are 18 for 35 against him.

Mike Pelfrey is another pitcher who greatly improved his ERA over 2007, almost by two runs. Mike walked 4.8 per in innings in 2007, 2.9 this year. He too faces a rookie putting up good numbers, James Parr. Parr struck out 12 in 16 1/3 innings, walking three, but only allowed 17 hits. That puts his ERA at 2.20.

Maybe the Twins can take advantage of a post-clinch let down and split the series with the Rays. Francisco Liriano takes the hill against Andy Sonnanstine. Liriano is coming off his worst start since rejoining the rotation. He only lasted 2 2/3 innings against the Indians He allowed eight runs, although just four were earned. Sonnanstine is posting a 1.89 ERA in September. In three starts, however, he just has an 0-1 record to show for it.

John Danks visits Brandon Duckworth as the White Sox hope to keep their 2 1/2 game lead as the prepare for the showdown with the Twins on Tuesday. Danks hasn't fared well against one of the weaker offenses in the game. The Royals scored eight runs in 9 2/3 innings against John this season. On top of that, the Royals seem to score with Ducksworth on the mound, generating 32 runs in his five starts.

Derek Lowe tries to take the Dodgers magic number down one more as he faces Matt Cain in the 2008 Dodger Stadium finale. Lowe posted a 1.13 ERA over his last seven starts, good for a 5-1 record. The opposition hit just one home run against him in that time, covering 47 2/3 innings. Cain already set a new career high in innings pitched, and with four strikeouts today he'll set a new career high in that category as well.

Finally, a weak pitching matchup for the closing of Yankee Stadium as Chris Waters gets the honor against Andy Pettitte. Chris, in his rookie year, sandwiched seven poor starts between two brilliant ones. Although he pitched poorly at home in 2008, Pettitte's career for the Yankees in the Bronx is rather impressive. He did a great job keeping players off base with walks and keeping the ball in the park. That was good enough for a 94-42 record and a .642 winnings percentage.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 20, 2008
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The Red Sox send Jon Lester against Roy Halladay in Toronto as they try to clinch a spot in the playoffs. Lester is on fire down the stretch, posting an 0.87 ERA in September. He's struck out 20 in his last 20 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Halladay hasn't helped his Cy Young chances in the month. He hasn't allowed a home run, he's walked just one batter, but his 1-2 record and 3.60 ERA probably throw the award to Cliff Lee.

CC Sabathia pitches on short rest as the Brewers try to salvage their playoff chances. Johnny Cueto tries to hang a second loss on CC. Sabathia pitched very well against the Reds this season, going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in three starts. The Reds have to be happy with Cueto's season. He struck out nearly a batter an inning, with a decent walk rate. If he can pull his home runs down next season he should make a major leap forward.

Scott Kazmir gets a chance to put the Rays in the playoffs as he faces Kevin Slowey and the Twins. Kazmir's walks increased the last two months. He walked 3.3 per 9 innings through July, 6.2 per 9 since. Slowey's 2.96 ERA since the All-Star break is the fourth best in the American League.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 19, 2008
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Two big games take place in Florida tonight. The Twins face the Rays in game two of their four game series. Nick Blackburn faces Edwin Jackson. In his first full season in the majors, Blackburn appears to be hitting a wall. Since the start of August his ERA stands at 4.36. He's allowed 63 hits in 53 2/3 innings. Jackson is one of the few Rays pitchers who performs better on the road. It's not clear why his ERA is higher at home, however, since his BA/OBA/Slug are all lower at Tropicana Field.

In Miami, the Marlins open a three game series against the Phillies, who lead Florida by 5 1/2 games. Florida needs a sweep to get back in the NL East race. Brett Myers gets the ball for Philadelphia. The Marlins hung four runs on Myers on 9/10, despite Brett allowing one walk and striking out nine. It was the most runs Myers allowed since his return from the minor leagues. Josh Johnson's mid-season return helped stabilize the Florida rotation. He's already faced the Phillies twice, positng a 1.42 ERA against them in 12 2/3 innings of work despite giving up 12 hits and seven walks.

The Cubs can clinch the division with a win and a Brewers loss.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 18, 2008
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The Brewers get a tough opponent this afternoon as the Cubs send Rich Harden against David Bush. Harden's allowed a bit more power since moving to the National League, but his walks and especially his hits allowed are down. Bush brings an 8.53 ERA in two starts against the Cubs into the game. Chicago hit four home runs in 12 2/3 innings against David.

Joe Saunders faces Josh Outman in Oakland this afternoon. The game isn't a big deal, but I just love that a person named Outman is pitching in the majors. The Angels lead for home field advantage is down to 1 1/2 games over Tampa Bay, however. Maybe it means less to LAnaheim because they are a fine road team, but they did lose five of the six games they played at Topicana Field this season.

The White Sox maintained their 2 1/2 game lead on the Twins despite their loss to the Yankees last night. They'll try to take another from New York as Javier Vazquez takes on Mike Mussina. The Yankees lit up Javy in his only start against his former team this season, scoring six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Mussina tries for his 18th win, last reached by him in 2002. He pitched seven strong innings against the White Sox in his only start against them this season.

It's a porcine battle in Atlanta as Cole Hamels takes on Mike Hampton. Can Cole bring home the bacon for Philadelphia, or will Mike pork the Phillies?

Enjoy!

Correction: It's Josh, not David Outman.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 17, 2008
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Phil Hughes returns to the Yankees rotation tonight as they continue their series with the AL Central leading White Sox. Clayton Richard takes the hill for Chicago, and given the ERAs of the two pitchers this might turn out to be a slugfest. If Hughes can get two or three good starts under his belt, however, the Yankees go out on a positive note. Unlike some Yankees fans, I don't see this season as a disaster. It's the Red Sox 2006, a good team with some bad luck. As the Red Sox showed in 2007, that can be turned around quickly. If Hughes shows he can pitch, the Yankees head into 2009 with Wang, Joba and Phil in the rotation, maybe rounded out by Sabathia. That's not bad. These types of finishes force teams to really look at how they can improve, as opposed to , "We made the playoffs with these players, we'll be alright."

Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Rays continue to fight for the right to play the AL Central champion instead of the Angels. A win by the Rays reduces their magic number to clinch the division by three, since they then hold the tie-breaker in head-to-head competition against Boston. A Boston win means we won't know until they play a few more games against eastern division teams. Matt Garza hosts Tim Wakefield. Garza posts a 2.74 ERA at home this season. Wakefield has yet to defeat Tampa Bay in 2008 despite a 2.77 ERA against the Rays this season.

Both the Phillies and Mets send out inexperienced major league pitchers in their quests for the playoffs. J.A. Happ faces the Braves while Brandon Knight jousts with the Nationals. Both hold high ERAs and matchup against two good young pitchers, Jair Jurrjens and Shairon Martis.

Cliff Lee goes for win 23 against the struggling Twins. Scott Baker tries to get Minnesota back on the winning track. Although not as extreme, Baker shares Lee's ability to keep batters away from free passes. Lee does a much better job of keeping the ball in the park, however.

Finally, the Brewers send Ben Sheets against the Cubs and Jason Marquis. A Chicago win reduces their magic number to two. In 11 1/3 innings at Wrigley this season, Sheets walked nine and struck out nine. Two BB and seven K in one game, and just the opposite in the other. Marquis has only allowed four runs in 13 1/3 September innings despite giving up 10 hits and 8 walks. He's bending but not breaking.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 16, 2008
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The White Sox and Twins send two good starters to the mound this evening as they take on the Yankees and Indians respectively in their battle for the AL Central. Gavin Floyd faces Andy Pettitte as the last week at Yankee Stadium continues. With 181 1/3 innings, Floyd pitched more this season than in his previous four years combined. In his final season at the old stadium, Pettitte performed poorly there, posting a 5.32 ERA. His other stats home and road are nearly the same. He has allowed a higher BA with runners in scoring position at home, .360 versus .319.

Meanwhile, Francisco Liriano battles Zach Jackson in Cleveland. Shouldn't Jackson's nickname be "Zachion"? With 51 hits allowed in 40 innings he certainly provides action to the hitters. Liriano's control is all the way back as he's only allowed one walk in 15 September innings.

If the Brewers had won a few more games recently, this series in Chicago might be more meaningful in the NL Central. The Brewers do get to hang on for dear life as they battle the Phillies and Mets for the wild card. It's a great matchup tonight as CC Sabathia tries to get Dale Sveum's career off on the right foot. He'll need to beat Ryan Dempster, however. The Cubs laid one of the the few no decisions on CC as they scored four runs off him in his only start against Chicago this year. Dempster comes into the game 3-0 against Milwaukee with a 2.37 ERA. He's yet to allow a home run to the Brewers this year.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 15, 2008
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The Astros and Cubs finish their series in Milwaukee with an afternoon game. Ted Lilly face Brian Moehler as Houston tries to get a hit. Richard Justice blasts both Bud Selig and Drayton McLane for moving the games to Milwaukee. Moehler pitched very well against the Cubs this season, allowing a 2.12 ERA in three starts. Lilly is almost as good with a 2.19 ERA against the Astros.

The Red Sox and Rays begin their last head-to-head series of the regular season. Scott Kazmir hosts Daisuke Matsuzaka. Boston has yet to win in Tampa Bay this season. Matsuzaka is undefeated on the road, however, going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA. Kazmir is close to unbeatable at home with a 7-1 record and a 2.10 ERA.

Dontrelle Willis makes his first appearance since June as he takes on the Rangers and Brandon McCarthy. Willis's minor league performance this year doesn't give me a lot of hope that he's over his wildness. He walked 25 in 56 1/3 innings. Lefties are hitting .300 against McCarthy, righties, .200, so splitting the difference his overall BA and OBA are good.

Enjoy!

Correction: Astros play the Cubs, not the Brewers.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
September 14, 2008
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Although their playoff odds are slim, Toronto fights on with a great pitching matchup in Boston. Roy Halladay faces Jon Lester. Halladay and Lester are tied with six others for the AL lead in shutouts with two. It's possible one of them can break the tie today. Those are Lester's only two complete games, while Roy's eight CGs are twice as much as the next nearest pitcher, Cliff Lee.

Milwaukee and Philadelphia make up their Friday rain out with a split admission double header. The second game provides the best pitching matchup as Jeff Suppan faces Brett Myers. Suppan wasn't able to extend his great August into September. He's allowed three home runs in his last 10 2/3 innings during the current month. Myers hasn't lost a beat, however, striking out 19 in his 15 1/3 September innings. A sweep puts the Phillies into a tie for the wild card.

The Cubs and the Astros meet in Houston's temporary home in Milwaukee. Carlos Zambrano returns to the hill for Chicago, while late acquisition Randy Wolf faces the Cubs. Houston played well so far against Zambrano in 2008. They've drawn nine walks in 18 1/3 innings, that in a season in which Carlos greatly lowered his walk rate. Wolf lowered his ERA nearly a run compared to his stint in San Diego, mostly by lowering his home runs allowed.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 13, 2008
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Six double headers are on tap for today. The last time as many as four double headers were played in one day was August 13, 1991. You need to go all the way back to August 17, 1980 to find a day with six double headers. Given the rain in the midwest, all six may not get played today.

The Blue Jays' loss Friday night puts whatever remaining playoffs hope they had in doubt, so they need to sweep the double header today. A.J. Burnett goes for his 18th win of the season as he attempts to reach 20 this season. He may reach that mark with an ERA over 4.00. Paul Byrd takes the hill for the Blue Jays in game one. His ERA with Boston is under four despite seven home runs allowed in 33 innings. Ten of the fourteen runs scored against Paul came via the long ball.

Mike Mussina also goes for his 18th win in his quest for his first 20 win season. He'll face the Rays and James Shields in game 1. Mussina reached the 18 win level five other times in his career. If he does reach 20 wins, it will be by posting the lowest walk rate of his career. A win for Shields gives him 13 on the season, which would be a new career high for him.

There's the possibility of a huge turnaround in the AL Central today. Opposite sweeps by the White Sox and the Twins could put Chicago in command, or the Twins in first place. Chicago's record against Detroit stands at 9-6 on the season, while the Twins won 11 of 15 against Kansas City in 2008.

Randy Johnson returns to the mound against the Cincinnati Reds and Edinson Volquez. These pitchers went in opposite directions in the second half. Volquez looked like a Cy Young candidate early on, but posted a more Texas like 5.12 ERA after the All-Star break. His strikeouts and walks remained good, but his home run rate doubled. Johnson's career looked over at the break, but he rebounded to post a 2.48 ERA since. Johnson's strikeouts went up and his walks came down.

Finally, Tim Lincecum continues his bid for best pitcher in the league as he visits the Padres and Chris Young. If the Giants had give Tim some run support against San Diego he might be going for his 20th win tonight. In five starts, Tim is 2-0 against the Padres with an 0.79 ERA. He's allowed just three runs in 34 1/3 innings. Chris Young takes the hill in opposition. After dealing with injuries, Young pitched very well against the Brewers his last time out, taking a perfect game deep and pitching extremely efficiently. The efficiency is something I'd like to see him take forward.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 12, 2008
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The Yankees open their final home stand at the remodeled House that Ruth Built with Matt Garza facing Sidney Ponson. Yes, the Yankees are trying to play spoiler in the AL East. Garza limited the power and walks of the Yankees so far this season, allowing one home run and two BB in 12 innings of work. Ponson, who only allowed three home runs in his nine starts with Texas has allowed 10 homers in his 13 starts with the Yankees.

Toronto gets a chance to control their destiny tonight as they open a four game series with the Red Sox. At this point, they pretty much need to sweep all seven games against Boston to have a shot at the AL Wild Card. That's not likely, but it at least gives them a shot. David Purcey takes the hill against Tim Wakefield. Purcey's weaknesses, walks and home runs, play into the strength of the Red Sox. It should be noted, however, that his walks improved tremendously in the minors the last two years, so don't expect that to last. Since returning from the disabled list, Wakefield allowed 13 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. This may be a slugfest tonight.

The Phillies are coming at the NL Wild Card in a similar way, needing to sweep the leader to tie. Manny Parra and Cole Hamels duel tonight. The Brewers were undefeated in Parra's starts in June, but are 3-10 since July when Manny takes the hill. He holds a 4.13 ERA in that time. Hamels ERA is down over a 1/4 run versus 2007. In 25 more innings he's walked just one more batter.

Enjoy!

Correction: It's a four game series against the Red Sox. I missed the double header on Saturday. Gaston will start Burnett, Litsch and Halladay on three-days rest to get his best possible pitchers into the series.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:42 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 11, 2008
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The Twins go for a sweep of the Royals this afternoon as Brandon Duckworth faces Francisco Liriano. Duckworth pitched poorly in his three starts, walking 10 and striking out five in 15 innings. At least no one hit a home run off him. Liriano is getting better with each start. He lasted seven innings in his last two starts, allowing a total of 10 hits while walking one and striking out 15.

The Brewers and Phillies open a four game weekend series, with the Phillies four games back in the wild card standings. Ben Sheets tries to get the Brewers off on the right track. He matches up well against the Phillies lefty power as he's only allowed five home runs in 355 at bats without the platoon advantage. Jamie Moyer goes for Philadelphia. He's 5-1 since the All-Star break, converting his 3.95 ERA pre-break into a 3.05 mark post-break. He's brought his home runs way down.

Rich Harden returns to the Cubs rotation after missing a start to face the Cardinals and Todd Wellemeyer. Harden is a K machine since joining the Cubs, striking out 75 in 54 innings. He's been amazingly good against #3 hitters in the lineup, as they've gone 2 for 25 with 12 strikeouts. We'll see how he handles Pujols. Wellemeyer gets hit hard at home. He's allowed a .448 slugging percentage at Busch, .368 on the road.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 10, 2008
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I'm a bit surprised the Brewers are pitching Sabathia today instead of holding him back a game for the Phillies series. If he pitches tomorrow, he still gets to face the Cubs twice, the second time on the last day of the season. CC takes his perfect Brewers record against Bronson Arroyo. The Reds righty figured out how to keep the ball in the park, and only allowed two home runs in his last 47 2/3 innings after giving up 23 through the end of July.

The Diamondbacks send Dan Haren against Brad Hennessey in San Francisco. Haren tries to right his own ship. Dan made two good starts in his last seven, posting a 6.17 ERA. His walks and strikeout numbers are good, but his hits allowed are way up. Is Arizona missing Orlando Hudson's defense that much? Hennessey makes his first start of the season after posting a 12.46 ERA in the pen.

There's a dot in the rear-view mirror of the Red Sox. It's Blue and its wings are flapping. Josh Beckett tries to keep the image from growing as he hosts Andy Sonnanstine and the Rays for the final regular season meeting of the two teams at Fenway Park. Beckett came back full force from his injury, shutting out Texas for five innings while striking out seven. Sonnanstine is a pitcher I thought would benefit from the Rays improved defense, but he's still allowing many more hits than innings pitched.

The Blue Jays start Roy Halladay against Mark Buehrle, giving them a good chance to extend their winning streak to eleven. Roy held the White Sox to one earned run in 7 1/3 innings this season. Buehrle also pitched well against Toronto in his one start, allowing zero earned runs in eight innings. He took the loss, however, when two unearned runs scored. He'll need to pitch well tonight to keep Chicago from possibly falling into a tie with the Twins.

Finally, Ted Lilly takes on Braden Looper as the Cubs try to turn their slide around. Lilly's having the kind of season where he totally shuts down right-handed batters but lefties kill him. So far, however, righties continue to get about three times the at bats. Looper has a losing record at home and a winning record on the road, despite an ERA 1/2 run lower at Busch.


Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 09, 2008
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The Red Sox try to regain first place in the AL East as Scott Kazmir faces Daisuke Matsuzaka at Fenway Park. The improvement in Tampa Bay's defense is apparent in Kazmir's hit rate. Last season, he allowed 8.5 hits per 9, this year his rate stands at 6.9. His strikeout rate fell a little, so there are more balls in play. Matsuzaka shows a similar decline, from 8.4 hits per 9 to 6.8.

The Cardinals still hold wild card hopes as they host the Cubs. Cy Young candidate Ryan Dempster takes on Kyle Lohse. Dempster's pitched almost 120 more innings than in 2007, but only allowed four more home runs. The Cubs may be able to get out of their funk vs. Lohse, as they've scored 10 runs in 13 innings off him this season, all earned.

Finally, the Diamondbacks get a chance for a win as Doug Davis faces Barry Zito in San Francisco. Davis has put together four decent outings in a row, while Zito has gone three out of four. Barry is 0-3 against the Diamondbacks with a 7.40 ERA, however.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 08, 2008
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The big AL East showdown starts today in Boston as Edwin Jackson and the Rays visit Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Boston picked up four games on Tampa Bay last week as the Red Sox won as many (5) as the Rays lost. The season series so far stands at 6-6, with all the games won by the home team. Jackson, however, pitches better on the road for the Rays, so they have the right person on the mound to try to break that streak. He posts a 3.26 ERA away from Tampa Bay, 4.83 at home. That may be a bit of luck, however, as his averages allowed are nearly identical. Lester faced the Rays twice, both at home, and held them to two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. While this series is unlikely to keep either team out of the playoffs at this point, winning home field advantage is very important to both.

The Brewers have trouble winning without Sheets or Sabathia on the mound lately. Dave Bush gets the added problem of facing Edinson Volquez. Despite an ERA in the fours the last two months, Volquez is still 6-2 over that time, and hasn't allowed a home run since July. Bush has been very consistent with all his averages this year, but with better offensive support he's 4-2 since the All-Star break.

The Blue Jays try to make it nine in a row as they take on the first place White Sox in Chicago. A.J. Burnett takes on Javier Vazquez. Burnett is making a good push in the second half if he decides to opt out of his contract. He's struck out 75 in 66 1/3 innings since the All-Star break while walking just 21, good for a 3.53 ERA. Vazquez showed improvement in the second half as well, posting a 3.79 ERA and lowering his home run rate by 1/3.

Arizona tries to get back in the win column as they face the weak hitting Giants, but Tim Lincecum stands in their way. He gave up five runs in a game for the third time this season in his last start. Against the Diamondbacks this season, he's struck out 20 in 14 1/3 innings while walking just three. Yusmeiro Petit takes the hill for Arizona.
Petit posts great K and BB numbers, but teams tend to take him deep. He is giving up home runs at a rate of 34.4 per 200 innings this season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 07, 2008
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First, the game not of the day. The first game of the A's-Orioles double header was rained out yesterday. The double header was scheduled to give the teams a day off today so as not to interfere with the football game doing on at the next light rail stop. It hasn't been rescheduled, and I can't imagine the Athletics making another trip to Baltimore if both teams are out of the race. Amazing that Baltimore would give up the gate. Why not start at noon or 11 AM, just to get the game in. There's really no excuse for this.

The White Sox try to sweep the Angels, as the offense continues to perform well without Carlos Quentin. It's a battle of good, young pitchers as Joe Saunders faces John Danks. Saunders ERA rose dramatically since the break as he's averaged less than six innings a start, and Danks show the same pattern. Both pitchers are allowing more walks and hits.

Cliff Lee tries for his 21st win as he attempts to lock down the Cy Young award. Zack Greinke and the Royals try to stop him. The Royals may have a chance here as the only two games Lee lost this season came in the day time on the road (although one of those was in a dome at Minnesota). One bright spot for Kansas City is Greinke's season. On a team with a good offense he could easily with 15 to 18 games.

The Phillies and Mets play a split admission double header to make up for yesterday's rainout. The early game features Jamie Moyer against Pedro Martinez, while late we get the power with Cole Hamels taking on Johan Santana. Needless to say, the Phillies are looking for a sweep here as they stand two games out in the NL East. It was the Phillies sweep in their last series of the season that sent the Mets into a tailspin in 2007 as they blew a seven game lead. While a sweep would certainly not be a death-knell for New York, it would focus the media on that happening again, and Mets players and management are going to be stuck talking about the collapse. For that reason, it's extremely important for the Mets to take one of these games today.

Finally, the Diamondbacks try to regain first place in the NL West as substitute starter Max Scherzer faces Clayton Krenshaw. Max holds excellent strikeout numbers in his short time in the majors and pitched as well as a starter as he did as a reliever. Kershaw allowed a .354 OBA this year, but his .221 BA allowed with runners in scoring position tempers that somewhat.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 06, 2008
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Game 1 of Oakland at Baltimore and the Phillies-Mets game have both been postponed.

The Rays' lead is down to 2 1/2 games in the AL East as they send James Shields against Shawn Marcum in Toronto. Shields is only 3-6 on the road with a 5.84 ERA while Marcum's home run rate drops by more than half at the Rogers Center.

Arizona's lead is down to 1/2 game as Brandon Webb makes his third attempt at winning 20 games. He's allowed six earned runs in each of his last two starts, lasting a total of eight innings over both. Chad Billingsley stands in opposition. Billingsley allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last 10 starts, and comes into the game with a lower ERA than Webb (3.13 for Chad, 3.19 for Webb).

Both the Angels and White Sox try to reduce their magic numbers tonight as John Lackey takes on Gavin Floyd. The Angels number is five to clinch the division, while the White Sox need 21 for their crown. Despite the time off due to injury, this is likely to be Lackey's second highest season for allowing home runs. His career high was 31 in 2003, but his 22 in 2004 was the closest he's come to that number. He's at 21 right now. Floyd cut his HR per 200 innings from 48.6 in 2007 to 27.5 this season.

Jake Peavy takes on Ben Sheets and we'll be watching to see how Sheets holds up. He left his last start with tightness in his left groin. Peavy pitched poorly on the road this season, with a 4.52 ERA vs. 1.40 at home.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 05, 2008
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The Phillies travel to New York, three games behind the Mets to start a three-game series at Shea. It's the last series between these two teams in the regular season, it would behoove Philadelphia to sweep this weekend. It's a nice matchup this evening as Brett Myers takes on Mike Pelfrey. Myers keeps getting outs, now posting a 1.78 ERA since returning from the minors. He has not allowed a home run in his last three starts. Pelfrey faced Philadelphia twice in April, before he hit his stride. He allowed six runs in 10 innings of work.

CC Sabathia goes for his 10th win in 12 tries since joining the Brewers as he faces San Diego and Josh Geer. More importantly, Sabathia tries to halt the Brewers four game losing streak. Milliliter's opponents have accumulated a .541 OPS against the big lefty since the trade,with both his OBA and slugging percentage allowed well under .300. Geer made his first ML start against the Rockies, and held the lefties he faced to an 0 for 4.

Josh Beckett gets to test his numb hand in Texas. Yankees fans will tell their Red Sox counter parts that Texas is a place to suffer injuries, not recover from them. He'll face Kevin Millwood, coming off a 3-1 August in which he posted a 2.76 ERA. He walked just two batters in 29 1/3 innings.

A possible playoff preview takes place in Chicago where the the White Sox host the Angels. It's not much of a pitching matchup with Mosely facing Buehrle, but Vlad/Teixeira vs. Thome/Quentin makes for the possibility of a nice slugfest.

Finally, the Diamondbacks arrive in Los Angeles with a 1 1/2 game lead over the Dodgers. The big three of the Diamondbacks rotation try to put the division away, starting with Dan Haren against Derek Lowe tonight. Haren suffered through a rough August, as he allowed six home runs in the month, two of those off the bats of the Dodgers. Lowe's ERA at Dodger Stadium is half that of his road ERA. In his two starts against the Diamondbacks at home, he's allowed 3 runs in 11 1/3 innings. In his one start against them on the road, 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 04, 2008
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The Yankees go for a sweep of the Rays as they try to keep hope alive for a playoff bid. Unfortunately for New York, Boston swept Baltimore so they haven't gained any ground in the wild card race. New York is 9-5 against the Rays, winning with pitching. They've posted a 3.57 ERA playing Tampa Bay.

Darrell Rasner gets a tough assignment tonight as he faces Scott Kazmir. After a great May, Rasner is 2-8 with a 6.07 ERA from June 1st on. The fact that he's starting and Joba Chamberlain went back to the pen shows pretty clearly that the Yankees are playing for next year. Kazmir isn't pitching much like an ace lately, however. Since the start of July, he's averaged less than six innings a start and is back to walking a ton of batters.

The Brewers host the Padres the team Milwaukee helped oust form the playoffs in 2007. It's a battle of veterans as Shawn Estes takes on Jeff Suppan. Estes missed all of June, July and August with a broken thumb followed by a finger nail infection. Suppan brings a five game winning streak into the contest. His ERA over that time is 3.00. He has allowed eight home runs in the 42 innings covering those six starts, account for 11 of the 14 runs he allowed.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 03, 2008
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The Mets go for a sweep of the Brewers this afternoon as Oliver Perez faces Dave Bush. A sweep puts the Mets one game behind the Brewers, which of course is important should New York find itself in the wild card rather than division winner position. Perez brought his home runs allowed under control since the all-star break, allowing just four in 58 innings. That helped lower his ERA to 2.95 in the time period. It's not clear why Dave Bush's ERA dropped since the break. Yes, he's pitching a little better, but the biggest difference is stolen bases. Runners were 11 for 15 against him pre-break, 3 for 7 since.

Carl Pavano continues to work for a new contract as he faces Edwin Jackson and the Rays. Five of Carl's six strikeouts came with men on base, preventing any advancement. His control is good as he's only walked two in 11 innings. Edwin Jackson's ERA is down almost two runs from 2007. His hits per nine dropped from 10.9 to 8.9 despite a drop in his strikeout rate. With more balls in play, he's benefiting from the improved Rays defense.

The Astros go for their ninth win against the Cubs this season with Randy Wolf facing Ryan Dempster. The interesting thing is that the Astros haven't hit well against Chicago this season. They've posted a .236 BA and a .296 OBA. Their slugging percentage is high for their BA, at .379. The Cubs have outscored them 67-55! But Houston tossed two shutouts against Chicago and held them to 1 or 2 runs three other times. Dempster is a Houston victim, going 1-2 against the Astros despite a 2.84 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 02, 2008
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The Yankees make one last ditch effort at getting themselves back in the AL East race as they open a three-game series in Tampa Bay. Mike Mussina takes on Matt Garza in what looks like the best pitching matchup of the series. With 16 wins, Mussina is going to need to stay at his best through September to have a chance at four more wins and his first 20 win season. He's pitched extremely well against the Rays this season, 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. Matt Garza has been all or nothing over the last two months. He's allowed 0 earned runs in five of his last 11 starts and four or more earned runs in another five of those.

Washington tries to extend their winning streak to eight games as John Lannan host Cole Hamels and the Phillies. In 15 innings of work this season, Hamels allowed just one run to the Nationals on a solo home run. He struck out 17, walked four and allowed nine hits. He's 0-1 in two starts. Lannan is a lefty who is extremely effective against right-handed hitters. That gives him an advantage with switch hitters Rollins and Victorino in the lineup.

Carlos Zambrano was supposed to start Sunday but instead goes tonight against the Astros. We'll keep our eye on his performance to see if he's more injured than the Cubs believe. Brandon Backe goes for the Astros. The Cubs took Brandon Backe the woodshed this season, scoring 17 runs in 16 innings off the Astros starter.

Finally, Tim Lincecum faces Livan Hernandez once again, this time in Colorado. Hernandez held his own against Tim for 6 2/3 innings in their last start in San Francisco. Lincecum's had great success at Coors, going 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA in four starts.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 01, 2008
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If the playoffs were to start today, the Mets and Brewers would face each other in the NLDS. Two of their best battle today as Johan Santana takes on Ben Sheets in Milwaukee. Santana's pitched extremely well this season, although his bullpen hasn't helped him. Mets relievers hold a 4.11 ERA in Santana's starts and blew seven of 15 save opportunities. Sheets had problems of his own in August. He posted a 2.67 ERA, but the Brewers scored 2 runs or less in three of those starts, all resulting in losses for Ben.

The Cardinals are trying to hang on in the race for the NL Wild Card, and they send Joel Pineiro against Randy Johnson in Arizona. Pineiro has made twice as many starts on the road than at home, but his ERA is 1.2 runs higher away. Randy Johnson pitched well in his last three starts. He struck out 27 in 21 innings but doesn't have a win to show for the effort.

Cliff Lee tries to become the first pitcher this season to 20 wins and spoil the White Sox playoff run as he hosts Clayton Richard. Lee posted his second 5-0 month of the season in August, his 1.86 ERA second to his 0.96 April mark. Richard holds good strikeout and walk numbers, but opponents are hitting him at a .319 clip.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 31, 2008
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Pedro Martinez makes an important start for the Mets today against the Marlins. His walks and strikeouts have been very good in his last two outings, but that hasn't translated into low number of hits allowed and low numbers of runs allowed. With Arizona and Chicago all boasting three great starters, and Milwaukee close with Manny Parra as a third, the Mets could really use Pedro on his game to go with Santana and Pelfrey.

CC Sabathia goes for his 9th win since joining the Brewers. The big difference for CC after the trade comes from his home runs allowed. CC gave up 21.3 HR per 200 innings this season with Cleveland, 10.1 with Milwaukee. He'll face Pittsburgh for the second time in a row, this time drawing Jeff Karstens. After getting off to a good start with the Pirates, Karstens allowed nine runs in his last nine innings.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks play the rubber game of their series with Derek Lowe facing Brandon Webb. Lowe's had a terrible season on the road this year, posting a 5.47 ERA to go with a 2-6 record. His .317 BA allowed on the road is over 100 points higher than he BA allowed at home, .215. Players hit Webb for a higher average when Brandon is at home, but he's still managed a 9-1 record and a 3.08 ERA in Arizona. A win tonight gives him 10 at home, 10 on the road, and 20 before September first.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 30, 2008
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The Phillies/Cubs game features two starters pitching better since the All-Star break for the same reasons. Both Brett Myers and Ted Lilly cut down on their home runs and their walks. With Myers, the transformation was extreme, going from a 5.84 ERA to a 1.66 ERA. Lilly cut his home run rate by about 1/3, but that was enough to bring his ERA down from 4.68 to 3.25.

After a shutout by the Red Sox and a big win by the Twins, the White Sox lead in the AL Central is down to 1/2 game over Minnesota. Chicago send Mark Buehrle to the mound against Michael Bowden, making his first major league start. You have to love the 21-year-old's minor league stats. In 406 innings he's struck out 389, walked 106 and allowed 29 home runs. This is the second year in a row Buehrle posted a good ERA by only has a record a bit over .500. I wonder if he usually matches up against another good pitcher?

The Mets can put another nail in the coffin of the Marlins season as Mike Pelfrey takes on Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins played better than anyone expected in 2008, they just don't have the stamina for a full season yet. Since his 0-5 May, Mike's record stands at 11-2 with a 3.03 ERA. Most impressively, he's only allowed five home runs in 107 innings. Nolasco is one Marlin who isn't fading. He's posted a 2.43 ERA in August with 43 strikeouts in 37 innings.

The Dodgers try to keep from falling off the edge of the NL West precipice as they send Chad Billingsley against Dan Haren. In three starts against the DBacks, Billingsley allowed 13 runs in 14 innings, walking 8 and giving up three home runs. Haren is having a tough August. He's 3-1, but his 5.29 ERA may be taking him out of the Cy Young race.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 29, 2008
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I'm pressed for time, so a very quick games of the day. Two pitchers who were teammates a couple of months ago face off in Chicago as Joe Blanton takes on Rich Harden. Rich has been nearly unhittable in Chicago, whereas Joe is pitching about the same as he did in Oakland.

Two former teammates also face off in New York as A.J. Burnett opposes Carl Pavano. Both may end up free agents at the end of the year. They may face different stories, however, as we wonder how high Burnett's salary might go while we wonder who would consider signing Pavano.

The Sox will win tonight as Javier Vazquez takes on Daisuke Matsuzaka. Javier is on a roll in August with great control and few home runs allowed, while Matsuzaka is undefeated in the month.

The Dodgers have yet to win on the road this trip as they face their biggest test of the season in Arizona. Hiroki Kuroda faces Doug Davis. Working in the Dodgers favor is a poor month by Doug Davis, 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 28, 2008
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The Red Sox and Yankees play their last game at Yankee Stadium this afternoon. The first major league game I attended was played between the Red Sox and Yankees at the old stadium. What I remember most was Mel Stottlemyre's triple and that I got to see recent call-up Thurman Munson catch. Both teams were out of it but it was exciting to finally see the ballpark. There's something about walking into a green enclave in an urban area. I got the feeling that I stepped into an oasis. Twice more I would experience the same emotion; the first time I entered Harvard Yard and the first time I saw the grass at Fenway Park. They remain my three favorite green islands in areas of urban bustle.

They'll end with a fine pitching matchup as Jon Lester faces Mike Mussina. The two come in with nearly identical ERAs, Lester slightly better at 3.45 than Mussina at 3.49. Jon's pretty much shut down the Yankees this season, allowing just two runs in 16 innings while striking out 16. As an example of how much Mike improved over last year, in 7 1/3 more innings he's walked 14 fewer batters and allowed 16 fewer hits.

The Dodgers try to win a game on their road trip before they head to Phoenix for a showdown with the Diamondbacks. Clayton Kershaw takes on John Lannan. The Dodgers have a chance as Lannan is terrible at home, going 2-7 with a 6.27 ERA. Kershaw is nearly as bad away from Los Angeles, posting a 5.79 ERA on the road.

The replay era kicks off at Wrigley Field (last night game, first replay) as Cole Hamels opposes Ryan Dempster. Ryan's held opponents to a .213 BA this season, with very little difference between left and right handed hitters. Lefties do hit for a bit more power. Hamels opponents are batting .220 against him, but for some reason lefties hit him for power. Hamels held the platoon advantage against hitters in 24% of the at bats against him, but those lefties delivered 33% of the home runs off Cole.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:21 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2008
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The Twins are in danger of getting swept by the Mariners as they send Glen Perkins against Ryan Feierabend. The Twins, scoring at a pretty good clip most of August, managed just two runs in each of the first two games. The Twins knocked around Feierabend in his first start of the season, but Ryan came back to pitch five strong innings against the Athletics. Perkins opposed Feierabend the last time he faced the Mariners. He didn't pitch great, but no walks allowed him to last six innings for the win.

Tonight's game in Philadelphia should favor the Mets as Johan Santana opposes Kyle Kendrick. Johan is giving the Mets their money's worth in August, going 3-0 in five starts with a 1.49 ERA. Kendrick walked more batters than he struck out in August, so it's not surprising his ERA stands at 6.75 for the month.

Just when you think the Rockies might be climbing back into the NL West race, you notice Livan Hernandez facing Tim Lincecum. For the full season, the opposition is hitting .348 against Livan with a .519 slugging percentage. Those numbers for a batter would merit MVP consideration. Lincecum's slugging percentage allowed, .314 is lower than Livan BA allowed!

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 26, 2008
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Three games today involve teams going head to head for a playoff spot. The Red Sox make what is probably their last visit to Yankee Stadium (a Rays collapse seems unlikely at this point, along with either the Twins or White Sox playing poorly enough to lose the wild card). Tim Wakefield gets the call against Andy Pettitte. Tim made two good starts before the Red Sox shut him down due to a stiff shoulder. We'll see how rusty he is tonight. Pettitte's overall number look okay, but he gives up a lot of power with men on base. Only six of his 17 home runs came with the bases empty.

The Mets go into Philadelphia for a two-game series leading the Phillies by 1/2 game. They'll send Pedro Martinez against Jamie Moyer in a battle of veterans. Pedro's posted a 3.16 ERA in August despite allowing seven home runs in the month. Moyer is enjoying his best season since 2003. He's brought the long ball under control, allowing just two home runs since the All-Star break, good for a 2.47 ERA. The opposition has not homered off him in August.

The Cardinals trail the Brewers by 3 1/2 games as Milwaukee visits St. Louis. Ben Sheets faces Todd Wellemeyer in game one. The Brewers lost four of Ben's last five starts, but only scored five runs in those four losses. Ben has a 4.36 ERA over those five games, so both sides are contributing. Wellemeyer's ERA is about 1 1/2 runs higher at home. In about the same number of innings, he's walked twice as many batters in St. Louis

Also on tap, Cliff Lee goes for his 19th win and third place in the AL Central as the Indians face the Tigers. Brandon Webb pitches for his 20th win as the Diamondbacks continue their series in San Diego.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
August 25, 2008
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The Phillies try to return the favor and sweep a four game series from the Dodgers tonight. The overall score in the three games is not close as Philadelphia scored 22 runs to Los Angeles's five. It was a little closer at Dodger Stadium where the Phillies lost 22-16. Chad Billingsley brings a 3.10 ERA into the game. His 9.30 K per 9 is second in the NL only to Tim Lincecum. Brett Myers is coming off a complete game shutout and owns a 1.82 ERA in August. He's walked four and struck out 26 in the month.

Dan Haren and Jake Peavy matchup for the second time in a row. The pitching duel didn't develop as both were tagged for five earned runs. Playing in PETCO Park tonight could give us the low scoring game we expected last time.

In Seattle, Francisco Liriano takes on the Mariners and Miguel Batista. Liriano has not allowed an earned run in three of the four starts since his return to the majors. Batista walked seven more batters than he struck out this season, walking batters at a 6.3 per 9 clip.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:34 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
August 24, 2008
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It's the trade show today as three pitchers who migrated to the National League try to to continue to help their new teams to the playoffs.

CC Sabathia aims to remain undefeated as the Brewers host the Pirates and Paul Maholm. While Sabathia holds the lowest ERA in the majors since the start of July, Maholm ranks twelfth. He's posted excellent strikeout, walk and home run numbers over that stretch.

Rich Harden sits number two on that ERA list. He gets what should be an easy assignment as he takes on Jason Bergmann and the Washington Nationals. Bergmann's big problem, apart from run support, is extra-base hits. He does a good job of limiting the number of batters reaching base, but gives up lots of doubles and homers to move the ones who do reach long distances. Opponents are just 2 for 25 against Harden with runners in scoring position since he joined the Cubs. He's allowed as many runs with the bases empty (four home runs) as with men on base.

Finally, Joe Blanton hosts the Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda on ESPN. Kuroda is just 2-7 on the road. His walks and home runs go up while his strikeouts go down. Blanton comes off two poor starts in which he allowed 17 hits and 8 runs in 10 innings of work. He did strike out nine, but the balls in play against him kept finding holes.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 23, 2008
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Scott Kazmir faces Javier Vazquez as the Rays and White Sox continue their series in Chicago. Since the All-Star break, Kazmir's control took a nose dive. He walked 3.4 batters per nine innings before, 5.3 since. The extra pitches he's throwing shortened his average outing from six innings to 5 1/3. Vazquez is having his best month of the season, posting a 2.48 ERA in August. He's only allowed two home runs in the month after giving up six in each of the previous three.

Clayton Kershaw is the new Mr. No Decision. In fourteen starts, he's only recorded a 2-3 record. He'll need to average more than five innings per start if he wants to record wins. Cole Hamels tries to make it two in a row for the Phillies against the Dodgers. Hamels is less than two innings shy of his 2007 total. Despite giving up the same number of walks, two fewer homers and 14 fewer hits, his ERA is only 0.17 runs lower.

The Rockies host the Reds as Edinson Volquez takes on Aaron Cook. Volquez's BA allowed drops from .261 at GAB to .197 on the road. Cook is going through a rough patch in August, allowing 28 hits and 13 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

There are also three debuts of a sort today. Dirk Hayhurst makes his first major league appearance, pitching for the Padres. Despite good strikeout and walk numbers throughout his minor league career, Hayhurst is just making the majors at age 27. Of course, his gets added to the list of my favorite baseball names.

Brandon McCarthy spent the year on the disable list, but comes off today after work with Nolan Ryan. He returns to the majors with 13 straight scoreless innings at AAA. The White Sox are in contention this season with help from John Danks, and Texas hopes McCarthy can do the same for them next season.

Finally, Carl Pavano tries to make up for his lost contract as he goes against the Orioles. Starting him against a weaker team away from New York is probably a good idea. However, it is Baltimore, and they send their ace Jeremy Guthrie to the mound. Yankees fans like to travel south to see the team play (cheaper than going to Yankee Stadium) so it may be like home with the boo birds if Carl doesn't pitch well.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 22, 2008
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It's a post-season preview weekend as many teams in contention for the playoffs matchup over both leagues. The Dodgers swept the Phillies four games in LA last week, and now the Phillies try to return the favor. The series opens with the return of Greg Maddux to the Dodgers. Greg's pitched better than his 6-9 record and comes into the game hot in August. He's posted a 1.89 ERA this month, walking one batter in 19 innings. He'll face his polar opposite in Kyle Kendrick. Kyle's pitched worse than his 10-7 record and sports a 9.00 ERA in August. He's walked 13 in 13 innings.

The Toronto Blue Jays stand seven games behind the Red Sox and Twins in the AL Wild Card race as Toronto hosts Boston in a three game series. This may be the Blue Jays last stand. A sweep of Boston gets them close enough for a September run. Losing two out of three would pretty much kill off their chances. Paul Byrd faces Shaun Marcum in the opener. Byrd faced Toronto in his first Boston appearance, and every batter put the ball in play. Ten of the 31 found their way for hits. Marcum pitched three shaky outings after returning from the disabled list, but in his last three starts opponents scored just four runs in 18 innings.

The Rays start a series in Chicago as Edwin Jackson opposes John Danks. This would be one ALDS series if Boston wins the wild card. Jackson's two run drop in ERA makes it look like Tampa Bay put a better defense behind him. Last season, he allowed 34 more hits than innings pitched. In 2008, that's down to two fewer hits than innings. Danks shows a similar falloff in hits, but a more pronounced fall off in ERA as he also limited the number of home runs he allowed.

The Marlins are just hanging on in the NL East race as they send Anibal Sanchez against the Diamondbacks and Randy Johnson. So far Sanchez shows a huge lefty/righty split, allowing a .341 BA to lefties and a .116 BA to righties. Johnson's found his old control since the All-Star break, walking just three batters in 40 1/3 innings.

Glen Perkins takes on Joe Saunders in another possible playoff matchup as the Twins try to take the second game of the series from the Angels. Perkins 10-3 record seems a bit too good given his pitching stats. However, most of the power against him comes with the bases empty. He's allowed 13 of his 16 home runs with no one on. Joe Saunders dropped his strikeout rate for the second year in a row, and for the second year in a row his ERA improved. After averaging four home runs a month this season through July, he hasn't allowed one in August.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 21, 2008
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The Royals and Indians play a lunch time game as Zack Greinke faces AL Cy Young leader Cliff Lee. Lee goes for his 18th win against just two losses. If you're looking to see home runs and walks, Lee is not your man. He's allowed just on walk per start and gives up a long ball every three games. Grienke was in giving mood with home runs, allowing 14 in May and June. He's cut that down, allowing just three over his last 47 1/3 innings.

In the old, broken down pitchers making comebacks game, Mike Hampton takes on Pedro Martinez in New York. Mike's made five starts without injuring himself, and actually pitched well in two of them. Both were against San Francisco, however. Teams with good offense have knocked him around a bit, and the Mets own the second best offense in the National League. With Pedro, the good news is he's posted a 2.59 ERA in August. He has allowed six home runs in 24 1/3 innings, however. All six were solo shots, and only two other runs were charged to Pedro this month.

Brandon Webb tries for his 19th win as the Diamondbacks host the Padres and Chad Reineke. Chad is undefeated in his one game MLB career. In the minors, he struck out 500 in 513 innings. Webb's a great example of a pitcher who succeeds despite allowing the running game to flourish. Opponents have stolen 20 bases in 25 attempts, an 80% success rate. So few batters get hits against him however, it's tough to score those runners. Webb allows a .197 BA with runners in scoring position.

A possible first round playoff matchup gets a preview in Anaheim as the Twins take on the Angels. Scott Baker takes the hill for Minnesota. Baker is going through a rough stretch in his season, allowing 19 earned runs in his last five starts covering 28 2/3 innings. He's allowed eleven of his 26 walks in that stretch. John Lackey is not much better. His sub 2.00 ERA of May and June turned into a +5.00 ERA in July and August. He's more than doubled his home run rate in that time.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 20, 2008
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The race for the AL Central continues this afternoon with Twins hosting the Athletics and the White Sox hosting the Mariners. Francisco Liriano takes the hill for Minnesota. Since returning from the minors he's posted a 1.45 ERA with 15 K in 18 2/3 innings. The only thing he's done poorly so far is walk seven batters. He'll face Dallas Braden. The A's pitcher has an interesting split, giving up a much higher BA with the bases empty, but a higher slugging percentage with men on base.

The White Sox send Gavin Floyd against R.A. Dickey. Despite allowing a majority of his home runs at home, Floyd is 8-2 with a 3.27 ERA in Chicago. For some reason, his strikeouts are much higher at the park formerly known as Comisky. Maybe players swing for the fences in the easy home run stadium? Dickey is averaging two base runners per inning in August.

The Rays go for the sweep of the Angels for the second time this season. The disappointing Jered Weaver faces Matt Garza. I don't quite understand why Weaver's ERA is so high. Most of the damage against him comes with the bases empty. It looks like a case of two seasons balancing out. Last year, his FIP was a little higher than his ERA. This season, it's a little lower. Garza's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park in Tampa Bay. He's allowed just two home runs at home, twelve on the road.

Finally, the best pitching matchup of the day goes to San Diego at Arizona as Jake Peavy faces Dan Haren. Peavy's allowed two runs in 14 innings against the Diamondback this season but still managed to lose a game. Haren's posted a 2.14 ERA against San Diego, but is 2-1 against the division rival.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 19, 2008
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The Red Sox travel to Baltimore where Daisuke Matsuzaka goes for his 15th win. The Boston righty appears to have adopted the philosophy of denying batters anything good to hit. He's surviving a high walk total most likely due to batters chasing close pitches often enough that they strike out or put the ball in play weakly. Consider that of the 338 balls in play against him, only 91 have gone for hits, a .269 average. He's wild without finding the need to give in to hitters, and it's working for him. Compare that to Daniel Cabrera, his opponent tonight. Dice-K walks over a batter more per nine than Cabrera, but Daniel is among the worst twenty in the majors in BB/9. He's just much more hittable when he's in the strike zone.

The Rays try to take over the best record in the AL and the majors as Ervin Santana faces James Shields. With a win tonight Santana doubles his output from last season. He's already pitched 12 2/3 more innings while allowing 29 fewer hits. Against the Angels this season, Shields struck out 17 batters in 17 innings without allowing a walk.

Johnny Cueto takes on Rich Harden in Chicago as the Reds face the Cubs. Cueto is an example of a pitcher who despite low walks and high strikeouts just isn't successful. He allows too many home runs as his FIP is actually very close to his ERA. Harden's allowed five home runs in his 35 innings with the Cubs, but otherwise opponents don't score much. The homers account for six of the eight runs he's allowed since the trade.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:58 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2008
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With both the White Sox and Twins breathing down their necks, the Red Sox send Jon Lester to the mound against Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie. Lester is emerging as a legitimate ace. He's walking less than three batters per nine innings and keeping the ball in the park, both improvements over his two previous seasons. He's also going deep in games, averaging over seven innings per start since the all-star break. Guthrie is five innings short of his total from last season. His strikeouts are down, but so are his walks and home runs. He's emerged as the new ace of the Orioles staff with a 3.18 ERA.

The teams with the two best records in the American League meet in Tampa as the Angels visit the Rays. Jon Garland faces Andy Sonnanstine. The Rays have done a good job this year of shutting down LAnaheim's offense, allowing just 19 runs in six games while scoring 28. That's good for a 4-2 record. They've won all three games in Tampa Bay, tossing two 2-0 shutouts there. Garland was on the losing end of one of those as he pitched eight shutout innings against the Rays but did not get the decision. The next day Sonnanstine gave up five runs in five innings, but Tampa took home an 8-5 win.

CC Sabathia goes for his eighth win without a loss as the Brewers host the Astros and Randy Wolf. Randy is 2-0 himself since joining the Astros, posting a 3.63 ERA. Sabathia's most impressive stat with the Brewers is his four complete games in eight starts. He had three with Cleveland in 18 starts this seasons. In half the innings with Milwaukee he's allowed less than 1/6 of the home runs.

Finally, Justin Duchscherer and the Athletics travel to Minnesota to face Nick Blackburn and the Twins. Justin's faded since the All-Star break, his 1.82 ERA before the break ballooning to 5.34 since. Blackburn's ERA is about 1.5 runs better at home than on the road, although it's not clear that it's the park. He's allowed a .234 BA with men in scoring position at home, .284 on the road.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 17, 2008
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It's a good day to get a handle on the NL Cy Young race as five possible candidates pitch today. Ryan Dempster faces Chris Volstad in Florida as the teams play the rubber game of their series. Of the Cubs regular starters, Dempster owns the best winning percentage and ERA. With almost the exact same number of innings as Zambrano, Dempster has struck out more batters and given up fewer hits and home runs. As a pitcher on a winning team with a good record and ERA, Dempster would appear to be the one to get the Cy Young votes on the Cubs. Volstad's been strong with runners on base this seasons, allowing a .261 slugging percentage. In his last two starts, however, he's walked more batters than he's struck out.

St. Louis sends Kyle Lohse against Edinson Volquez, two pitchers who made important and somewhat unexpected contributions to their teams this season. Edinson holds more than 1/4 of the Reds wins this season. He's been fading lately, however, posting a 4.57 ERA since the start of July. Lohse, too is starting to fade. His strength this season was keeping the ball in the park. Before the All-Star break he allowed just 8 home runs in 119 1/3 innings. Since he's given up seven long balls in 36 2/3 innings.

Tim Lincecum goes into Atlanta with a 12-3 record and 2.67 ERA to face Charlie Morton. Tim's turned up the strikeouts since the All-Star break, sending batters back to the dugout 47 times in 32 1/3 innings, 13.1 K per 9. Morton's numbers don't look that bad on the surface, but five of the seven home runs hit off him came with men on base.

The Mets and Johan Santana go for the team's sixth win a row as they face Jeff Karstens and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Although Santana doesn't have the record of a Cy Young candidate, his ERA and strikeouts are certainly in the ball park. A little more run support and Santana's record could be up there with Webb's. Karstens had his first rough outing for Pittsburgh against the Reds, but still lasted seven innings, giving up four runs, three earned.

Finally, Aaron Cook should get some consideration for the Cy Young award. He's a Rockies starter with an ERA under 4.00, never an easy feat to accomplish. He holds an excellent record on a poor team. He doesn't walk many and he keeps the ball in the park. He also gets a fairly easy assignment today as he faces Odalis Perez and the Nationals. Odalis is pitching well in August, posting a 2.79 ERA in three starts.

Enjoy!

Correction: Lincecum is 12-3, not 12-6.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 16, 2008
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The AL Central race takes center stage on Fox this afternoon as they broadcast both the White Sox at Athletics and Mariners at Twins. John Danks gets the call for Chicago against Greg Smith of Oakland. Danks improved the three true outcomes for a pitcher this season, bettering his strikeouts, walks and especially home runs versus 2007. Smith pitched to some hard luck this season, although an 0-4 July was squarely his fault as he posted a 6.18 ERA that month. In two games against the White Sox this season he's walked seven while striking out only six.

Ryan Rowland-Smith takes on Scott Baker in Oakland. The hyphenated hurler makes his fourth start. His strikeouts per 9 are down since joining the rotation, leading to more hits allowed an a higher ERA. Baker posts a 2.83 ERA at home, only allowing five of his 17 home runs in the Metrodome.

St. Louis faces Cincinnati as they try to continue to catch Milwaukee for the wild card. Aaron Harang takes the mound for the Reds. Harang pitched poorly in his return from the disabled list, making me wonder if he's really healthy. Joel Pineiro take the hill for the Cardinals. In his two starts against the Reds this season he's posted a 1.50 ERA.

Anibal Sanchez tries to turn around the Marlins swoon against Sean Marshall of the Cubs. Marshall makes his fourth start of the season. He's struck out batters at a higher rate as a starter and walked batters at a lower rate, yet his ERA is almost a run higher than in the bullpen this season. Sanchez is allowing a .200 BA with runners in scoring position in his brief return to the majors.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 15, 2008
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It's nice to have Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb on rotation as we get to see the two duke it out for most wins in the majors. Both get tough assignments tonight.

Cliff hosts the Angels and Jered Weaver. The Angels enjoy the best record in baseball and added hard hitting Mark Teixeira to the mix. He's slugging .620 since joining the Angels. Lee has allowed fewer walks than games started, and doesn't get hit hard for a pitcher who is always around the plate. Only 36 of his 152 hits allowed went for extra bases. Weaver allowed six home runs in his last two starts.

Webb pulls the hottest team in baseball as Arizona visits Houston. The Astros's winning streak, however, came against Cincinnati and San Francisco, not exactly NL power houses. Webb has allowed just three home runs on the road this season in 91 1/3 innings. He'll face Wandy Rodriguez, having the best strikeout season of his career. That should work well against the high K Arizona offense.

Paul Byrd makes his Red Sox debut and draws Roy Halladay. Roy averages 7.5 innings per start, taking plenty of pressure off the Toronto bullpen. Byrd hasn't allowed a home run since the All-Star break. That works well against Toronto as they've hit the fewest home runs in the AL in 2008.

After losing three of four to the Cardinals, the Marlins host Carlos Zambrano and the NL leading Chicago Cubs. Zambrano already beat the Marlins once this year, walking none and striking out six in seven innings of work. Josh Johnson tries to get Florida back to winning. He's giving up hits (.277 BA) but not much power (.387 SPCT).

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 14, 2008
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The best pitching matchup of the day goes to Milwaukee at San Diego as Ben Sheets faces Jake Peavy. Sheets has pitched well since the Brewers acquired Sabathia, but that hasn't resulted in good headline numbers. He's 1-3 with a 3.25 ERA despite allowing just 9 walks and 1 home run in 38 1/3 innings. Peavy holds the lowest ERA in the majors since the start of the 2007 season (300 innings) by over 0.3 runs.

Up the coast, the Rays and A's play the rubber game of their low-scoring series. James Shields takes on Sean Gallagher. Shields has taken his fine control to the next level since the All-Star break, striking out 25 while walking just three. Gallagher seems to have lost his, walking about twice as many batters per nine innings as he did with the Cubs earlier in the year.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 13, 2008
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John Maine returns to the Mets rotation tonight against the Washington Nationals. He'll face Jason Bergman, and both own identical 4.13 ERAs. It says something about the relative strength of their offensive squads that Maine's record is 9-7 while Bergman's stands at 2-8.

Rich Harden pitches the night-cap for the Cubs after getting his start rained out yesterday. He takes on Jorge Campillo of the Braves in Atlanta. Harden's going to end the season in interesting fashion. He's striking out 1.5 more batters per nine than any other Major League pitcher with at least 100 innings. He also holds the lowest ERA in the majors. With 107 innings pitched, however, he still needs 55 innings to qualify for any sort of ERA title. The Cubs will have 42 more games after today, meaning Harden gets eight more starts. He's need to average seven innings per start to reach 162 innings. He's only averaged six innings per start with the Cubs. Still, it possible that Harden ends the season as the best pitcher in the majors, but due to his splitting the season between the two leagues, does not win a Cy Young award.

The Angels magic number to win the AL West sits at 29 as they face Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners. The King posts a 2.47 ERA on the road, where he allowed just one home run all season. He'll face the magic man, Ervin Santana. Santana is off to a great start in August, striking out 15 and walking two in 15 innings of work.

Finally, CC Sabathia tries to remain perfect against as he takes on Josh Banks and the Padres. Milliliter has walked just 12 in 57 innings since joining Milwaukee, and that's helped him to a 1.58 ERA. Banks has similar great control, but doesn't match it with a high strikeout rate. He's a pitcher with an okay OBA allowed, but with most of his OBA coming from hits, runners tend to advance farther and score more.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 12, 2008
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It's not a meaningful game, but Edinson Volquez and Jeff Karstens offer a good pitching matchup in Pittsburgh. Volquez is slipping in the Cy Young race, so we'll see if he can return to his early season form. Karstens has yet to allow a run since joining the Pirates.

The Cubs appear to have the highest probability of winning a game today as Rich Harden faces Charlie Morton in Atlanta. Harden has pitched spectacularly since joining the Cubs, while Turner Field exacerbates Morton's weaknesses. Charlie is 0-4 with an 8.39 ERA at home. He's allowed 5 home runs in 24 2/3 innings there.

The Rays are lucky the injuries to Longoria and Crawford came while they were facing the weak teams of the west. They travel to Oakland as Scott Kazmir takes on Gio Gonzalez in a battle of lefties. Kazmir is backsliding. Before the break, he was keeping his walks and pitch counts low. Now both are rising, meaning more runs allowed and fewer innings pitched. Gonzalez makes his second ML start after putting up both high K and and high BB numbers in the minors.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 11, 2008
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Two surprise playoff contenders meet in Miami as the Cardinals face the Marlins in a four game series. Florida is two games behind St. Louis and five games behind Milwaukee in the wild card race, 2 1/2 back in the division. Joel Pineiro take the hill for the Cardinals. His strikeouts, walks and home runs are very similar to his 2007 effort, but his ERA is up .70 runs as more hits have gotten past the defense this season. Anibal Sanchez is coming along slowly, making his third start. The most encouraging thing so far is that he's not giving up extra-base hits.

The last time the Yankees met the Twins, New York needed a sweep to move past Minnesota in the wild card race. The same logic applies now. The Yankees trail Minnesota by 2 1/2 games and Boston by four in the competition for the last playoff spot. Sidney Ponson tries to get the Yankees back to winning after a sweep in Anaheim. Despite his 3-1 record with the Yankees, his 17 walks and five home runs allowed in 40 innings makes me think that record could be a lot worse. Glen Perkins doesn't strike out many batters, but like many Twins pitchers his walk total is so low he still maintains a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He can be taken deep at home, however, as nine of his 13 homers allowed came in the Metrodome.

The White Sox try to make it three out of four against Boston in the series as they send John Danks against Josh Beckett. Josh seems to be allowing runners to score from first as he's allowed a high slugging percentage with men on base, but a low one with men in scoring position. Danks big improvement over 2007 is his home run rate. He'll likely pass his 2007 inning total tonight, but has allowed 17 fewer long balls.

The Phillies head to the west coast to take on the Dodgers. Derek Lowe owns a better ERA than Kyle Kendrick, but Kyle collected 10 wins while Derek suffers with 10 losses. Kendrick's ERA jumps to 4.79 on the road, but he's still managed a 6-2 record. Lowe posts a 2.72 ERA at Dodger Stadium, but he's just 6-5 there.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
August 10, 2008
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Cliff Lee goes for his sixteenth win as the Indians take on Scott Richmond and the Toronto Blue Jays. That would give Lee nearly a third of the Indians wins this season. Lee is averaging just one walk per start this year, and only allows a home run every three. Richmond starts his major league career as a control freak as well, allowing just one free pass in his first eleven innings pitched.

The Marlins try to salvage a game against the Mets as Josh Johnson faces Mike Pelfrey. Johnson's ERA sits at 3.34 despite a .300 BA allowed with runners in scoring position. Pelfrey does a great job of keeping the ball in the park at Shea, allowing just three home runs in 78 2/3 innings there, or 7.6 per 200 innings.

Manny Parra makes his first start since his altercation with Prince Fielder as the Brewers go for their third straight shutout of the Nationals. Parra pitched three short shutouts this year, but allowed 11 earned runs in his last 11 1/3 innings. He'll face John Lannan. Lannan's 2.57 ERA on the road is fourth best in the National League.

The Angels look to bury the Yankees as Andy Pettitte takes on Joe Saunders. The Angels pounded Pettitte for nine runs in 5 1/3 innings in New York. Saunders gives up a good amount of home runs for a pitcher who doesn't strike out many batters, but most of them (11 of 17) were solo shots.

Brandon Webb tries to keep the Diamonbacks in first place and pick up his 17th win of the season as he faces Mike Hampton and the Atlanta Braves. The Braves offense has come alive with the return of Chipper Jones, 3 for 7 in his two games with two walks. One of Webb's two losses came against the Braves, however, who scored seven runs in 4 1/3 innings against him earlier this season.

Finally, the Cardinals and the Cubs play the rubber game of their series in Chicago on Sunday Night Baseball. Chris Carpenter makes his third start since returning from his long rehabilitation. So far, he's not striking out batters like he used to, but he's not allowing runs just the same. Ryan Dempster tries to extend the Cubs lead over their arch rivals. He's posted a 1.38 ERA since the All-Star break.

Enjoy!

Enjoy.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 08, 2008
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The St. Louis Cardinals try to stop the Cubs juggernaut as they visit Wrigley Field for a three game series against Chicago. Branden Looper survives by keeping his walks low and limiting his extra base hits allowed to bases empty situations. He's allowed a .502 slugging percentage with no one on, but it drops over 100 points with men on base. Ted Lilly's home runs and walks are way up from his great 2007 season, but with the offense the Cubs generate he's still good enough to win most of his games.

The Mets trail the Marlins by 1/2 game as they open a three game series at Shea. It's been a close season series so far, with the Mets winning five of the nine games played. It's not so close in runs, however, as New York outscored Florida 51-38 in those contests. Ricky Nolasco set a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts without setting a career high in walks. Oliver Perez won two games in three starts against Florida without a loss this season. He's struck out 20 in 18 innings in head-to-head competition.

The Red Sox visit Chicago for an important four game series with both division and wild card implications. The White Sox would not only like to beat the Red Sox to keep their lead in the AL Central, but they'd like to move ahead of Boston for the wild card if the Twins stay on their tail. It starts with a battle of lefties as Jon Lester faces Mark Buehrle. Since 5/14/2008, no one with at least 70 innings pitched has been better than Lester at keeping the ball in the park. He'll be challenged by Chicago as they've hit the most home runs in the majors. Buehrle's ERA is much better at home, mostly due to giving up fewer hits. His batting average allowed drops 90 points home versus road.

On the west coast, two pitchers return to the majors. Ian Kennedy is thrown right back into the fire as the Yankees visit the LAnaheim Angels. Kennedy was 4-2 with a 2.14 ERA in AAA this season. He struck out 38 and walked 13 batters. We'll see if he can do that against the Angels, a team that likes to put the ball in play.

Up north, Brad Penny returns from his injury against Barry Zito and the Giants. Watch Penny's home runs. He allowed nine in 2007 in over 200 innings. He allowed nine this season in just 85 2/3.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 07, 2008
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We'll know the state of the NL East by late afternoon as both the Mets and Phillies host matinees today. It's a good none matchup at Shea as Josh Banks faces Johan Santana. Banks holds a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio despite a very low strikeout rate. He only walks a batter once every four innings. One worrisome stat for the future for Johan is that for the first time since 2001, he's striking out less than nine batters per nine innings. His 2007 rate of 9.7 K per 9 dropped to 7.5 this season.

The Marlins and Phillies play the rubber game of their series with Chris Volstad facing Cole Hamels. There's been speculation that Hamels is hurt as he's allowed 14 runs, 8 earned in his last two starts. He's also allowed 8 home runs in his last five outings. Volstad showed great control in the minors, averaging 2.4 walks per nine. So far, it's been a respectable 3.6 walks per nine in the majors.

Texas needs a win to take three out of four from the Yankees and actually gain some ground in the wild card race. They'll send Scott Feldman against Mike Mussina. Scott is the kind of pitcher the Yankees should beat. He strikes out too few, walks too many, and is susceptible to the long ball. Mussina's ERA has gone down every month this season, and he's started August with a 1.29 mark.

The Rays fly as far as they can for their next game as they travel to Seattle for a series against the Mariners. They draw Felix Hernandez in game one. King Felix cut down on his home runs up upped his walks this season. He already walked as many as in 2007 in 54 fewer innings. Andy Sonnanstine is about at his 2007 inning total. He allowed two fewer walks and five fewer home runs, lowering his ERA about one run.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 06, 2008
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The Marlins and Phillies continue their battle for the NL East crown as Anibal Sanchez faces Kyle Kendrick. Sanchez pitched well in his first start since returning from his injury, but had trouble keeping the leadoff man in the inning off base. Kendrick's innings are almost equal to last year's total, but he's allowed ten more earned runs. His strikeouts are up, but so are his walks and hits allowed. Last season, his ERA was about a run better than his FIP indicated. This year, that's down to 1/2 a run.

Sidney Ponson returns to Texas, the team that let him go due to his bad attitude despite a good ERA. He's pitching worse but behaving better for the Yankees. He'll face Tommy Hunter, making the second start of his career. Hunter posted superb walk numbers in the minors, issuing just 1.7 walks per nine innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 05, 2008
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The Astros won seven of their last eight games and pitched consecutive shutouts as they play game two against the Chicago Cubs. With visions of their 2004 and 2005 second half comebacks dancing in their heads, they now sit seven games out of the wild card with five teams ahead of them. Wandy Rodgriguez takes the mound this afternoon against Rich Harden. For the second year in a row, Wandy's taken his ERA down about a run. Last season he upped his strikeouts. This season, he lowered his walks. Harden has been almost unhittable since joining the Cubs. He faced 95 batters, struck out 39 and allowed just 14 hits.

The Fish and the Phillies open up a three game series, giving the Marlins a chance to move into first place in the NL East. A sweep puts them up 1/2 game. Josh Johnson takes on Jamie Moyer. Johnson's walk and strikeout numbers are good in his first four starts, but he has allowed three home runs in 23 2/3 innings. Moyer is perfect in his career against the Marlins, going 10-0 in ten starts with a 3.03 ERA.

The Tigers sit 6 1/2 games out of first place as they open a three-game series with the White Sox. Game one seems to favor Chicago as Nate Robertson opposes Gavin Floyd. Robertson has a well deserved 6.06 ERA as he's allowed a .501 slugging percentage this season. Batters hit for power off Floyd as well, but his batting average allowed is much lower, so it doesn't have the same impact.

The Dodgers and the Cardinals are both battling for playoffs spots with Chad Billingsley facing Chris Carpenter in St. Louis. Chad is the kind of pitcher who should benefit from the increased offense expected from the trade of Manny Ramirez. Despite a 3.05 ERA, his record is just 11-9. Carpenter was somewhat lucky to allow just one run in his first start since recovering from surgery. Seven of nineteen batters reached base against the former Cardinals ace.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:34 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 04, 2008
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The heat is on in Texas as the Yankees open a four-game series with the Rangers. The forecast calls for 102 degrees Fahrenheit at game time. Joba Chamberlain will try to stay hydrated against Vicente Padilla. In moving to the rotation, Chamberlain maintained his high strikeout rate while lowering his walk rate. Padilla owns the third highest HR rate in the AL, 1.34 per nine innings. The Rangers sit 3 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the wild card race, so a sweep by Texas jumps one hurdle.

Two pitchers try for win number 15 tonight. Cliff Lee faces the first place Rays in Tampa Bay. The Rays are great at home, and Lee's only two losses came in road games. Aaron Cook might have a better chance as he hosts the Washington Nationals. Cook sports a 3.43 ERA at home where he's allowed five of his 12 home runs.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 03, 2008
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The Milwaukee Brewers go for a sweep of the Braves with Ben Sheets facing Jorge Campillo. Sheets is coming off his worst month of the season, going 1-2 in July with a 4.34 ERA. It might have been the fault of his defense, however, as his strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed were all excellent. Batters are adjusting to Campillo. The high strikeout rate he showed in April and May (33 K in 36 1/3 innings) dropped in June and July (37 K in 64 2/3 innings).

Armando Galarraga faces James Shields today in the Tigers/Rays game. Galarraga and Edinson Volquez are two reasons, I believe, for the purge of the Texas Rangers pitching coaches. Neither performed well for the Rangers, but both blossomed away from Texas. Like Volquez in Cincinnati, Galarraga owns the best ERA among Tigers starters.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 02, 2008
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The White Sox continue their series against the Royals with Mark Buehrle facing Kyle Davies. Buehrle's ERA doesn't jibe with his record of 8-9. A pitcher on a first place team with an ERA of 3.69 should at least be over .500. It's been his bad luck to start nine games in which the White Sox scored two runs or less. Davies is getting hit hard this year, but especially at home where opponents are batting .309.

Somehow, when Johan Santana faced Roy Oswalt, I didn't expect them to be a combined 17-15. Since the start of the 2003 season, the two rank 1st and 3rd in the majors in wins, respectively.

There's a good matchup of young left-handers in Boston as Dana Eveland visits Jon Lester. Eveland, however, is just 2-4 away from Oakland, posting a 4.44 ERA on the road. His walks go down but his home runs go up. Lester is having a great run since the start of June, undefeated with a 2.56 ERA. The high walk totals from the start of his career have disappeared as his BB per 9 is just 1.3 during this stretch.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 01, 2008
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The Angels continue their blitz through the AL East as they send Ervin Santana against the Yankees' Sidney Ponson tonight. A somewhat telling statistic right now is that LAnaheim is 9-1 against the Red Sox and Yankees, 2-4 against Tampa Bay. The Angels are not only dominating the AL West, they may make the difference in the AL East as well.

The class of 1993 meets again in Florida as Ubaldo Jimenez takes on Chris Volstad. Ubaldo is coming off a hot July (we had a day last week when it was the heat, not the humidity) in which he posted a 1.74 ERA, giving up 29 hits in 41 1/3 innings. Volstad is off to a good major league start due to the lack of power against him. Only five of his 19 hits allowed went for extra bases, and opponents are slugging a mere .313 off the Florida rookie.

The Phillies and Cardinals start a weekend series with both division and wild card implications. Cole Hamels gets the ball in game one for Philadelphia. Cole's home run rate is holding him back from being a Cy Young contender. He's tough to hit, tough to reach base against, but with 21 homers allowed, nine for more than one run, more than half of his runs allowed came on the long ball. If he could cut his home run rate 25%, his ERA would likely drop to around 2.75. Look what an improved home run rate did for his opponent tonight, Kyle Lohse. His HR rate is down 25% from his career average and his ERA down a run from his career mark.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 31, 2008
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The Yankees open a four game series with the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem (LAnaheim Angels, for short) this evening. These are the two hottest teams in the majors. Starting July 12th, the Angels are 12-2, the Yankees 10-4. LAnaheim pretty much put the AL West in their pocket, opening up an 11 1/2 game lead. Meanwhile, the Yankees climbed to one game out of the wild card. The Angels just helped that cause with a sweep of Boston.

Since Mike Scioscia took over the Angels at the beginning of the 2000 season, LAnaheim is the only American League team with a winning record against the Yankees, 38-33 (regular season). This is the first time Mike face Joe Girardi, however.

Jon Garland faces Andy Pettitte. Garland has a habit of giving up extra-base hits with men on base. Eight of his 14 homers are of the multi-run variety. Home runs are a problem for Pettitte also. He's already allowed 14 after giving up 16 all last season.

The Cubs go for a sweep as they try to get Rich Harden his first win as a Cub. In three starts Rich earned a 1.04 ERA, but only lasted 17 1/3 innings. He'll face David Bush, who is posting a 2.14 ERA in July.

Anibal Sanchez returns for the Marlins as they face Colorado and Jorge De La Rosa.
Sanchez last pitched 5/2/2007, after four starts made it clear his control was gone. So was his shoulder. He's walked 10 in 28 rehabilitation innings while striking out 25. De La Rosa is 3-1 in July despite a 5.06 ERA. He gives up a lot of hits for a pitcher who strikes out over nine batters per nine innings, as opponents hit .284 against him.

The White Sox and Twins finish up their series with John Danks facing Scott Baker. A win by the Twins nets them a two game pickup for the series. Baker combines the ability to keep the ball in the strike zone with the ability to prevent hits, as both his batting average and OBA allowed are low. Danks strikes out more batters, but walks more as well. Both pitchers are enjoying excellent results this season.

Finally, a big showdown out west as the Diamondbacks visit the Dodgers. Brandon Webb, one of Arizona's two aces takes on Derek Lowe. Webb posts a 2.59 ERA on the road where he's allowed just three home runs in 83 1/3 innings, a rate of 7.2 per 200 innings. Lowe posts a 2.71 ERA at home.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 30, 2008
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It's Cy Young candidate Wednesday. Cliff Lee goes for his 15th win tonight as he pitches against Nate Robertson and the Tigers. A win would give Cliff nearly 1/3 of the Indians wins this season. With two months left in the season, it would also make it possible for Lee to win 25 games.

Joe Saunders brings his 13-5 record to Boston to face Josh Beckett. Saunders has a 3.55 ERA against the Red Sox in two starts, despite walking six and striking out just four. The Red Sox have done most of their hitting against Saunders with two out, not allowing them to extend the inning. The Red Sox scored just two runs total in Beckett's last two starts as he fell to the Angels 4-2 and to the Yankees 1-0.

Edinson Volquez goes for his 13th win against the Astros. His 5.27 July ERA has taken him out of the NL lead in that category, however. Home runs are the problem this month as he's allowed four so far.

Ryan Dempster tries to make it three in a row for the Cubs against the Brewers as he faces Manny Parra. Dempster is only 1-3 on the road this season, however. He's neck and neck with Zambrano for best starter on the Cubs this season. Parra is no slouch, either. He's 5-1 at home, and has only allowed 2 of his 9 home runs at Miller Park.

Dan Haren leads the NL in ERA at 2.56, and pitching in San Diego should help that number. He has a 1.29 ERA against the Padres this season.

Last but not least, Chris Carpenter returns to the Cardinals rotation today. Chris is 51-19 with a 3.14 ERA in his St. Louis career. If he can come anywhere close to those numbers he'll improve the team's chances of making the playoffs.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 29, 2008
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Sometimes, one game really stands out from all the others. Today, Carlos Zambrano faces Ben Sheets as the Cubs and Brewers continue their battle for the NL Central title. Zambrano reinvented himself this season after posting a 3.95 ERA in 2007. He reduced his walks from 4.2 per 9 innings last year to 3.0 this season. He appears to have cut down on his strikeouts to gain that control, but the added bonus is fewer home runs allowed as well.

He doesn't do as well on the road, however. His walk rate is higher, and it show in a 3.84 ERA away from Wrigley. He's also suffered some bad luck in his two outings against Milwaukee this season in terms of decisions. Despite allowing the Brewers just one run in two starts, Carlos does not have a decision. Both games resulted in 4-3 Milwaukee wins, with the runs coming late in the game.

The first of those was on opening day, when Zambrano and Ben Sheets matched shutouts into the seventh inning. After three season in which injuries limited Sheets time on the mound and effectiveness, he's back very close to his 2004 levels. The strikeouts aren't quite as high and the walks aren't quite as low as that season, but those stats are still very good. He's 1-0 against the Cubs in his two starts, but Chicago has been able to work him for walks. Sheets allowed 31 free passes this season, but nine of them (29%) accrued to the Cubs in just 11 1/3 innings (8.4%). With only five hits, however, the Cubs couldn't do much with the base on balls.

The only other game that comes close to this in terms of pitching is the Tampa Bay/Toronto game where Matt Garza faces Roy Halladay. If you're looking for a great pitching matchup, however, find a way to watch the Cubs and Brewers.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 28, 2008
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Four big series kick off tonight, three of them involving head-to-head division battles. First off, however, the Angels visit the Red Sox. This pits the team with the best home record in baseball (Boston, 37-13, .740) against the team with the best road record in the majors (LAnaheim, 33-19, .635). Jered Weaver faces Daisuke Matsuzaka. Weaver's put together five good starts in a row, upping his strikeout rate and lowering his hits allowed. After a rough outing in his first start after returning from the disabled list, Matsuzaka also reeled off five straight stellar outings, posting a 0.88 ERA.

The Mets travel south to Miami to take on the team that won't go away, the Florida Marlins. A sweep of the three game series by Florida puts the Marlins ahead of the Mets by one game. They'll start with Ricky Nolasco hosting John Maine. The Mets righty has seen his ERA go up every month this season. He's currently at 5.73 for July with 14 walks and four home runs in 22 innings. Nolasco pitched very poorly against the Mets in 2006, but since won both his starts against New York.

Both Chicago teams hit the road to meet the challenge of the second place teams in their divisions. The Cubs send Ted Lilly against the Brewers recent acquisition, CC Sabathia in a battle of left handers. The Brewers need to take three of the four games in the series to grab the NL Central lead. Sabathia is 4-0 since joining Milwaukee, with three straight complete games. He's allowed a .180 batting average and a .244 OBA. Lilly reached 10 wins for the sixth consecutive season. He's upped his career K per 9. It was 7.7 through 2007, 8.4 this season.

Finally, the White Sox head to the land of 10,000 lakes to try to knock the Twins out of the race. This is also a four game series, and the Twins need to sweep to claim first in the AL Central. Mark Buehrle starts for the White Sox. He's putting up number extremely similar to 2007; low walks, a good home run rate and a low strikeout rate. Despite an ERA well below four, he's once again a .500 pitcher. Kevin Slowey takes the hill for Minnesota. After finishing June on a strong note, Slowey slowed down in July. Three bad outings has him with a 9.00 ERA for the month.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 27, 2008
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The Cardinals and Mets finish their series as Kyle Lohse faces Johan Santana. Both are having somewhat surprising seasons. Lohse, the last minute signing by the Cardinals enjoys a 12-2 record and a 3.35 ERA. Although he's 6-1 both home and away, his ERA is over 1.50 runs higher away from Busch Stadium. Santana, the covetted prize of the off-season, is just 8-7 despite a 3.05 ERA. His 2.59 ERA at Shea is only good for a 4-3 record.

Randy Wolf makes his first start for the Astros against the streaking Brewers and Jeff Suppan. It's not clear why Houston wanted a pitcher with a 4.90 ERA over the last three seasons, other than Ed Wade knows him from Philadelphia. In eight seasons there, his lowest ERA was 3.20 and he only posted marks below 4.00 twice. Suppan, a right-hander, is getting pounded by right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .531 slugging percentage.

Eric Hurley and the Texas Rangers try to gain more ground in the wild card race as they take on Dana Eveland and the Oakland Athletics. The A's are 5-10 since trading Rich Harden, falling out of the AL West race and barely hanging on in the wild card race. Hurley's ERA is low for his stats, but he's pitched extremely well with men on base and runners in scoring position. He's allowed a .216 BA in former situation and a .211 BA in the latter. Eveland gets by with a high number of walks due to a low number of home runs. His slugging percentage allowed is less than his OBA allowed.

Finally, the Yankees can move into the lead in the AL Wild Card race with a win over the Red Sox tonight. Sidney Ponson opposes Jon Lester. Ponson's K, BB and HR numbers with the Yankees are terrible, yet he's 2-0. No wonder New York was looking at Jarrod Washburn as a replacement. Lester pitched a five-hit shutout against the Yankees on July 3rd. He owns two of Boston's five complete games this season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 26, 2008
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Wrigley Field offers a great matchup of pitchers who just recently joined their teams as Chris Volstad takes on Rich Harden. Volstad hasn't pitched as well as his ERA indicates. However, he does a very good job of keeping batters off base. With none on, he's allowed a .244 OBA. However, with men in scoring position, opponents hit .333 against him with a .538 OBA. He just keeps those situations to a minimum. Harden has allowed one run in two starts for the Cubs but has yet to see a win.

Two pitchers return from the disabled list today. Mike Hampton is scheduled to pitch against Cole Hamels and the Phillies, but I think the odds are 50-50 he injures himself during his warmup. Fausto Carmona takes the hill for the Indians after missing two months of the season. With Cleveland 13 games out, it's probably too late for him to help this season.

Finally, Brandon Webb takes on Tim Lincecum in San Francisco. Lincecum is having a rough July. His strikeouts and walks are still good, but his home runs are up and so are his hits allowed. Webb had his rough month in June. He's not getting the wins in July, but his ERA is 2.67 for the month. It's two runs lower than June, despite nearly identical stats. Opponents hit .300 against him with runners in scoring position during June, .094 in July.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 25, 2008
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The Yankees post All-Star break schedule turned out to be perfect for the Bronx Bombers. They've faced the three teams in front of them in the wild card race in order. They passed the Athletics with a sweep, they passed the Twins with a sweep, and now can pass the Red Sox (by percentage points) with a sweep. The series starts with a great pitching matchup as Joba Chamberlain makes his first start in Fenway, facing Josh Beckett. Joba needs to extend his number of innings pitched per game. He's averaging just over five innings per start so far. Beckett is posting a 5.68 ERA in July. His strikeouts are down since the start of June. He was averaging 10.1 K per nine through the end of May, 6.5 since. Last season, a stint on the disabled list helped keep Beckett sharp late. I wonder if he could use a two week vacation now?

The Rockies visit the Reds with Aaron Cook facing Edinson Volquez. Cook holds a slightly higher ERA on the road this season as he's walked about twice as many batters away from Coors. Volquez is undefeated at home despite allowing more power there. He's given up 17 extra-base hits at Great American Ballpark, nine on the road.

The Cardinals are three games back in the Wild card race as they take on the Mets at Shea. Albert Pujols has hit just one home run in July. If he stays at that level, it will be his worst month for home runs in terms of games played. Meanwhile, Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado hit five homers on the month and is slugging .712 for July.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
July 24, 2008
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The Phillies and Mets play the rubber game of their series at Shea this afternoon, the winner leaving with the NL East lead. It's a battle of left-handers as Jamie Moyer faces Oliver Perez. A win today by Moyer gives him 240 for his career, tying Jamie with two other left-handers, Herb Pennock and Frank Tanana, for 53rd on the all-time list. Moyer pitched well against New York this year, posting a 3.38 ERA in three starts. Perez has returned to his walking ways of 2005-2006, issuing 5.2 per nine innings.

The Marlins open a four-game series with the Cubs in Chicago. Florida sits one game out in the NL East, while the Cubs are one game up in the NL Central. The series also has wild card implications, however. The Marlins are currently five games back of Milwaukee for the wild card, so catching an NL Central team is important if the Marlins can't win the NL East. Scott Olsen opens against Carlos Zambrano. Olsen's ERA soars on the road to 4.93 as he allows 44.6 home runs per 200 innings away from Miami. Zambrano has only allowed three home runs in night games this season, covering 89 innings.

Finally, the Brewers go for a sweep of the Cardinals as Ben Sheets visits Todd Wellemeyer. The Milwaukee staff held St. Louis to just six runs in the first three games. Sheets is on a roll, as he's struck out 20 in 16 2/3 July innings. Wellemeyer, who started so well for the Cardinals, is slumping. His July ERA stands at 7.15. He's allowed 30 hits in his last 22 2/3 innings, 11 for extra bases.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 23, 2008
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There's lots of afternoon baseball on the first Wednesday after the All-Star break. Greg Smith and James Shields hook up in Tampa Bay with the Rays holding on to a 1/2 game lead in the AL East. The two own similar ERAs, but Shields is doing a much better job of keeping his walks issued low. Smith does a better job of keeping the ball in the park.

Gaining on the Rays are the New York Yankees, undefeated since the break. They go for a sweep of the Twins as Mike Mussina hosts Glen Perkins. The Minnesota lefty relies on his defense, as he strikes out few and walks even fewer. So far it's worked as his ERA is under 4.00 despite allowing a .292 BA. Mussina allows a high average, too, but an even lower walk rate keeps his OBA allowed at .314.

Brett Myers returns to the rotation tonight against the Mets. He gave up nine earned runs in 27 minor league innings. Maine has walked seven and struck out six in 11 2/3 innings against the Phillies.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 22, 2008
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Joe Blanton makes his Philadelphia debut as he faces Johan Santana and the Mets in New York. Blanton faced the Mets twice in his career, not allowing a run in fifteen innings of work. He struck out 10 and walked just one. Santana pitched well against the Phillies this season, striking out 16 and walking one in 15 innings pitched. The winner claims sole possession of first place in the NL East.

On the west coast, Daisuke Matsuzaka goes for his 11th win in his 17th start against R.A. Dickey of the Mariners. Amazingly, Dice-K walks 1.8 more batters per nine innings than the knuckleballer. Matsuzaka remains tough to hit, however, allowing a .178 BA with runners in scoring position. Dickey seems to be adopting the Dice-K strategy in July. He's walked 11 in fifteen innings but allowed just two runs.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 21, 2008
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The Milwaukee Brewers travel to St. Louis for a wild card showdown with the Cardinals. St. Louis leads by one game, and both teams are also trying to gain on the Cubs. Seth McClung faces Joel Piniero. The more interesting matchup, however, may be Pujols against Braun. So far this season, Braun is batting .485 against the Cardinals with four home runs and a .500 OBA. Pujols owns a .526 OBA with one home run. With those two generating offense Milwaukee leads the season series 5-4.

The Yankees took care of one wild card rival over the weekend, and now face the Minnesota Twins. Nick Blackburn takes on Sidney Ponson. The offenses are going in different directions this month, the Twins scoring 5.73 runs per game, the Yankees 4.2 runs per game. The Twins are only a game better than the Yankees on the month, however, 10-5 vs. 9-6.

Finally, a battle of first-place teams in Arizona as the Cubs play the Diamondbacks. Rich Harden faces Randy Johnson. Harden got off to a good start with Chicago, striking out 10 in his first 5 1/3 innings of work. The Big Unit continues to fool batters often enough to have struck out 95 while walking 28. However, when he doesn't fool them, he gets hit hard, leading to the second highest ERA of his career.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 20, 2008
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It's Cy Young Sunday as a number of pitchers competing for the award take the mound this afternoon. It starts with the MLB leader in ERA, Justin Duchscherer facing Andy Pettitte and the Yankees. With wins in the first two games of the series, the Yankees passed Oakland moving into third place in the wild card race. Since June 1st, Duscherer holds a 1.48 ERA, allowing just 33 hits in 61 innings. Pettitte pitched one of his better games against Oakland earlier in the season, allowing just one run in eight innings while striking out six.

The Phillies and Marlins see who wins their series today as Cole Hamels faces Josh Johnson. Expect the Fish to run on Cole as base stealers are 10 for 11 against him. Johnson showed great control in his first game back from a year on the disabled list, striking out six and walking none in five innings of work.

The Mets send Mike Pelfrey against Edinson Volquez in Cincinnati. After an 0-5 May, Pelfey is 6-0 in June and July. Volquez is on a pace to allow 8.5 home runs over 200 innings.

The Brewers are gaining on the Cubs as Manny Parra goes for the sweep of the Giants against Tim Lincecum. Parra walks a batter every other inning, but makes up for all those base runners by allowing a low average (.224) with runners in scoring position. Lincecum is having a rough July. He's already allowed two home runs on the month, matching his monthly high this season. :-)

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks play the rubber game of their series with Derek Lowe taking on Brandon Webb. Lowe has walked just nine batters in his last 54 1/3 innings. Webb is 6-1 at home despite a 4.28 ERA in Arizona.

Finally, Cliff Lee battles Carlos Silva as the Indians play the Mariners in Seattle. There may not be any base on balls in this game. The two pitchers combined to issue 39 in 243 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 19, 2008
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A quick games of the day as I'm off to Atlanta for the annual reunion with my college roommates. We're attending the Braves game. With John Lannan facing Jair Jurrjens it's up there with the best pitching matchups of the day.

The afternoon starts with recent acquisition Sean Gallagher against Joba Chamberlain in New York. Sean pitched the only game the Athletics won against the Angels just before the break.

The Red Sox find themselves in second place this morning after losing big to the Angels Friday night. They'll have a quick turnaround as Josh Beckett and Joe Saunders compete on Fox.

Mr. Complete, Roy Halladay hopes to get better run support than A.J. Burnett did Friday night as he faces Matt Garza and the first place Rays.

The NL Central tightened up a bit last night as the Cubs lost a well pitched game by Ted Lilly 2-1 while the Cardinals won a slugfest against the Padres and CC Sabathia used 110 pitches to complete a 9-1 win against the Giants. Carlos Zambrano faces Wandy Rodriguez in Houston while Ben Sheets goes against Jonathan Sanchez in San Francisco.

Finally, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are tied after Los Angeles won an extra-innings squeaker Friday night. Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren battle with first place on the line.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 06:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 18, 2008
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All 30 teams are in action tonight as the All-Star Break comes to an end. Oakland and New York are both in contention in their division and wild card races, but far enough out that every win is precious. They'll send Greg Smith and Mike Mussina to the mound in the Bronx tonight. Smith has been fantastic with men on base this season, allowing a mere .261 OBA and a .275 slugging percentage. A win tonight by Mussina gives him at least 12 wins in 15 of his 18 seasons.

Philadelphia and Florida battle for first place in the NL East as Jamie Moyer and Rickey Nolasco face off in game one of a three game set. These two teams are 1-2 in the majors in home runs, Flordia leading 135-132. The second base battle is more interesting than the pitching matchup. Utley and Uggla are very evenly matched. Both have 25 home runs. Utley holds 53 extra-base hits, Uggla 49. Dan has drawn 40 walks to Chase's 39. Because he missed a few games due to injury, Uggla's OBA and slugging percentage are a bit higher. We may be watching one of the best second base rivalries of all time.

The Dodgers trail the Diamondbacks by one game as they send Hiroki Kuroda against Doug Davis in Arizona. Kuroda uses his great control to keep the opposition in check. He's allowed just 29 walks this season, helping him hold opponents to a .294 OBA. Davis mixed in two bad outing in his first four starts back from cancer treatment, but his his last six starts he's posted a 2.95 ERA. Doug struck out 35 in his last 39 2/3 innings.

Finally, the team with the best run difference in the AL visits the team with the best winning percentage in the AL as Boston takes on LAnaheim. Clay Buchholz takes the mound against John Lackey. Buchholz owns an 8.64 ERA on the road this season. His walks, home runs and strikeouts aren't bad on the road, but he's allowed a .364 BA with runners in scoring position away from Fenway. After pitching lights out in May and June, Lackey was off to a rough start in July. He's given up 23 hits in his last 11 2/3 innings, good for an 8.49 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 17, 2008
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The All-Star break keeps getting longer as only four games are on tap tonight. It's not like the old days when players had to walk uphill through the snow to play triple headers on Thursday!

Johan Santana tries to help the Mets continue their winning streaks as they face the Reds and Johnny Cueto. Santana's five shutout innings before the break allowed him to break a streak of six starts all lost by the Mets, despite a 2.48 ERA by Johan. He allowed three runs or less in four of those contests. The Mets offense is better now, scoring 54 runs in their nine game winning streak.

Cueto's problem his year is the home run ball. He's allowed 20 home runs this season, 35.8 per 200 innings. He has excelled in one situation. Opponents are 0 for 7 with the bases loaded with one RBI and three strikeouts.

The Cardinals try to gain ground on the idle Cubs as they host the Padres and Jake Peavy. Since the start of the 2007 season, Peavy holds the lowest ERA in the majors among pitchers with 300 innings, 0.3 runs better than John Lackey. Kyle Lohse takes the hill for the Cardinals. With an 11-2 record, Lohse is in double figures in wins for the third time in his career, and three wins away from tying his career high of 14. With just two losses, he's in good shape to end five straight seasons of double digit losses.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 13, 2008
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Scott Kazmir tries to end the Rays six-game losing streak that cut their AL East lead to 0.5 games. Kazmir hasn't been going very deep in games lately. In his last five starts, his longest outing was 5 2/3 innings. He'll face Jeremy Sowers who comes into the game with a 7.81 ERA. With a low strikeout and walk rate, a lot of balls are put in play against Sowers, and that's resulting in opponents hitting .356 against him.

On the day before the All-Star break, three great pitching matchups are on tap. Brandon Webb faces Cole Hamels in Philadelphia. Webb goes for his 14th win of the season. Webb is tough on the road with a 7-3 record and a 2.47 ERA. Hamels is second in the NL in innings pitched this season, averaging over seven innings per start. His strikeouts drop during day games. He Ks 4.6 batters per nine innings during the day, 8.9 at night. The Phillies need the win as both the Marlins and Mets are just 1/2 game out of first place.

Tim Lincecum tries to end the Giants losing streak as he faces Ryan Dempster and the Cubs. Lincecum is off to a rough start in July, allowing two home runs in 12 innings and a 5.25 ERA. Dempster tries to stay undefeated at home, where he's collected all ten of his wins. If the Cubs make the later rounds of the post season, I bet they arrange things to start Ryan in games 2 and 6.

Finally, the Angels and Athletics play the rubber game of their match as Joe Saunders faces Justin Duchscherer. Saunders owns the second best road ERA in the American League, 2.23. Duchscherer own the best home ERA in the league, 1.23.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:01 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 12, 2008
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Rich Harden makes his Chicago Cubs debut this afternoon against the San Francisco Giants. Unfortunately, since it's an early afternoon start, it won't be on National TV. Harden pitched one of his better games against the Giants, lasting six innings without allowing a run and striking out nine. In interleague play, Rich went 3-0 in four starts, pitched 26 2/3 innings, allowed 12 hits, two runs, one homer, walked six and struck out 33. No wonder the Cubs wanted him pitching against the National League! He'll face Kevin Correia. Although he throws from the right side, right-handed batters are crushing Kevin, slugging .541 against him. This neutralizes his effectiveness against lefties, who are just slugging .309.

Five games back are the Brewers, who face Cy Young candidate Edinson Volquez. Edinson's strikeouts are starting to slip. He's only K'd six in his last three starts, covering 15 2/3 innings. The Brewers send out Seth McClung. Since the start of June, McClung's gotten a better handle on his control, walking 14 in 39 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 11, 2008
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Arizona and Philadelphia cling to slim leads in their divisions as they face off in a three-game series leading to the All-Star break. Doug Davis and Kyle Kendrick start the action tonight. Davis was up and down in his first four starts after returning from cancer treatment, but he's posted a 2.67 ERA in his last five starts, going fairly deep into games. I especially like his 31 K and 12 BB in 33 2/3 innings. Kendrick's excellent record is as much a result of his support as his pitching. He's number one in the NL in run support per nine innings at 7.60.

Tampa Bay tries to end it's four-game losing streak, but need to get by Cliff Lee of the Indians. James Shields takes the mound for the Rays. Shields, however, is one reason Tampa Bay doesn't perform well on the road. His ERA goes up nearly four runs this season away from The Trop. Lee, for some reason, hasn't pitched much in Cleveland this season. Only six of his seventeen starts came at home, where he enjoys a 1.84 ERA.

The Yankees travel to Toronto as Joba Chamberlain faces Jays ace Roy Halladay. Joba hasn't shown the control he had as a reliever, but his 2.57 starter ERA is rather impressive. Halladay upped his K rate in 2008 compared to 2007. He struck out 5.5 per 9 last season, 7.4 in 2008, a increase that led to a lower ERA.

Finally, the Athletics get another chance to gain on the Angels before the all-star break. They send Rich Harden replacement Sean Gallagher against LAnaheim's Jon Garland. Gallagher looks like he was hurt a bit by his defense, as his FIP is about 40 points lower than his ERA. Oakland has the best DER in the American League (although the Cubs DER was also very good). Garland does very well against the top of the order, allowing just a .206 BA in the first inning with a .289 OBA and a .265 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 10, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Mets try to make it three shutouts in a row as they finish up their series with the San Francisco Giants. John Maine gets the ball for New York. Maine is coming off an off start against Philadelphia in which he only gave up one hit over 5 2/3 innings, but it was a three-run homer. Maine is not an efficient pitcher, as he's only completed seven innings once this season. He'll face Barry Zito, coming off his best start of the year. His one walk, ten strikeout game against the Dodgers moved his K/BB over 1.0.

The Yankees and Pirates finish up interleague play with a make-up of a rain out in Pittsburgh. Mike Mussina goes for his 12th win against Paul Maholm. Mike is 5-1 on the road, walking just four in 36 innings pitched. Maholm is posting a 2.74 over his last seven starts. He's allowed nine home runs in that stretch, all solo shots.

Finally, two teams battling for their division leads do battle in Los Angeles. The Marlins welcome Josh Johnson back to the team. Johnson hasn't pitched in the majors in over a year. His rehabilitation assignments produced good and bad news. In 21 1/3 innings he struck out 16 and walked three, but he also allowed 12 earned runs. With the return of Anibal Sanchez a few weeks away, the Marlins are coming close to reuniting their 2006 rotation. He'll face Chan Ho Park, who is lights out at Dodger Stadium. Park owns a 0.62 ERA at the park this season, striking out 28 batters in 29 innings and allowing a .194 opposition BA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 09, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Giants send Jonathan Sanchez against the Mets and Johan Santana at Shea this evening. Sanchez and Lincecum are a combined 18-6. The rest of the San Francisco staff holds a 21-45 record. The duo ranks third and fourth (Sanchez) in the majors in K per 9 innings. Santana is 0-4 in his last six starts despite a 2.48 ERA.

Johnny Cueto draws Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano as the Reds try to tame the Cubs offense. Cueto walked two and struck out eight in six innings against Chicago earlier this year. He's also pitching well lately, allowing six runs in his last four starts. Zambrano made a success return from the disabled list his last time out, throwing six shutout innings against the Cardinals.

For the second day in a row, the Rangers start a pitcher making his Major League debut. Mike Ballard hosts Jered Weaver. Ballard has a high minor league ERA, 4.69, despite low walks and home run totals. That makes me wonder if he played in a high scoring league. Weaver got off to a rough start this season, but he's been pitching well since the middle of May.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
July 08, 2008
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The Cardinals and Phillies are each fighting for a playoff spot as the Cardinals visit the Phillies. Joel Pineiro faces Cole Hamels. Pineiro has allowed six of his eight home runs on the road, not a pleasant thought as he faces the Phillies heart of the order at CBP. Hamels remains on a roll, posting a 2.31 ERA in his last six starts. Eight of the twelve runs he allowed came on home runs.

The Yankees always seem to be playing a series they need to sweep, and never seem to accomplish the feat. They open a two-game set with the Rays, 8 1/2 games out of first place. In a battle of lefties, Scott Kazmir takes on Andy Pettitte. The improved Rays defense can be seen in Kazmir's hits per 9. In 2007, he allowed 8.5 H/9. This season it's down to 6.6 H/9. Pettitte's ERA at home this season is about 1.5 runs higher than on the road, despite his other stats being about equal. His home runs allowed at Yankee Stadium tend to come with men on, while on the road they tend to come with the bases empty.

The Minnesota Boston series continues with another good pitching matchup as Nick Blackburn battles Jon Lester. After a rough June, Blackburn started July with seven shutout innings. Lester did him a couple better with a shutout of the Yankees his last time out.

Of course, the biggest game tonight is the premier of CC Sabathia in Milwaukee. My latest SportingNews.com column pegs his contribution for the rest of the season at an increase of two wins for the Brewers. He gets a good shot at winning his first start as Mark Redman takes the mound for Colorado. Mark owns a 7.05 ERA this season, but pitched well against the Marlins in his return from AAA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 07, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Mets try to make it three out of four against the Phillies as Pedro Martinez faces Adam Eaton. Pedro looks finished. His 6.4 K per 9 is well below his career average, and the opposition is hitting .325 against him. The Mets rolled the dice well against Eaton this season. In two starts against New York, Adam allowed seven runs in eleven innings. This could turn out to be a slugfest.

The Twins come into Boston trailing the Red Sox by 1/2 game in the wild card race. They'll send Scott Baker against Daisuke Matsuzaka. Baker has a tendency to give up home runs on the road, as eight of his eleven game away from the Metrodome. His low walk total, however, keeps them from doing much damage. Eight were also solo shots. Dice-K pitched well in his last two starts, allowing just one run, but lasted just five innings in both games. He's walked eight in those two starts, forcing his pitch count high quickly.

The Angels head to Texas with a 7 1/2 game lead over the Rangers. The four game series gives the Rangers a chance to climb back into the AL West race. Ervin Santana faces Luis Mendoza. Santana upped his strikeouts and reduced his home runs allowed, leading to the best ERA of his career. Mendoza's control as a reliever didn't translate to the rotation. He struck out six and walked none in seven relief innings. As a starter, he's walked nine and struck out four in 14 1/3 innings pitched.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 06, 2008
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It's a Day for Cy Young contenders as four worthy candidates take the mound. Rich Harden faces John Danks in Chicago. Rich Harden is a few starts away from qualifying for the ERA title, but his 5-0 record and 2.25 ERA should put him in the mix once he reaches that threshold. He striking out more than nine per nine innings and three times more than he walks. Danks is posting a 2.50 ERA, not bad given that his home ERA is two runs higher than his road number. Even though his record is just a game over .500, Danks deserves serious consideration for the award.

Cliff Lee takes his 2.26 ERA against the surging Minnesota Twins. The Twins are scoring 6.3 runs per game over their last 22, including 21 in the last two games against Cleveland. Lee held Minnesota to two hits over eight innings the only time he faced the team this season. The league is hitting .308 against Minnesota starter Glen Perkins, so it's a chance for the Indians offense to bust out.

In the NL, Edinson Volquez toils for the Reds against the Nationals. He's coming off two short outings in which his walks equaled or exceeded his strikeouts. Collin Balester comes off a successful major league debut in which he allowed one hit and one run over five innings of work.

Finally, we get to see if Randy Johnson can turn things around. He faces the Padres, a poor offensive team. Johnson's strikeouts are high, but so are his hits allowed. He's fooling batters, but not every at bat. San Diego's starter Josh Banks is showing great control, walking one batter every four innings. He's limiting the opposition's power, even away from PETCO.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 05, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Cubs try to extend their lead over the Cardinals as Ted Lilly faces Kyle Lohse. Ted is having a very typical Lilly year in terms of his ERA and batting average allowed. He is throwing more pitches per start. Lohse found a great home in St. Louis, posting a 2.77 ERA at home vs. 5.13 on the road.

Greg Smith faces the White Sox for the second time. He held them to one run in seven innings of work back in April. Gavin Floyd takes the mound for Chicago. He's allowing a .176 BA at home.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 04, 2008
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On the 25th anniversary of Dave Righetti's no hitter, the Red Sox visit New York for another July 4th battle. Josh Beckett takes the mound for the Red Sox. He's only allowed one home run in his last five starts, giving him a 2.38 ERA in June. Darrell Rasner tries to fill Righetti's shoes for the Yankees. He was tough to hit in May, allowing a .209 BA, but hitters figured him out in June, when they hit .341 against him.

The Phillies dispatched the Braves, and now the Mets get a chance to make a move in the NL East. New York send Johan Santana against Brett Myers fill-in J.A. Happ. Johan is basically posting the same numbers he did in 2007, but once again with a weak team behind him, an ERA in the low three is only good for a .500 record. Happ has impressive minor league numbers, but failed to impress in his one MLB start in 2007, also against the Mets. He struck out five, but gave up seven hits in four innings.

Finally, the Cubs get Carlos Zambrano back just in time to visit St. Louis. The Cardinals trail Chicago by 2 1/2 games as they open a three game series. Zambrano's need for rest was apparent from his 5.68 ERA in May. He'll face long time reliever turned starter Braden Looper. It will be a contrast of styles as Zambrano tries to power through the Cardinals lineup while Looper uses his control and defense to try to stop the Cubs.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 03, 2008
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The Arizona Diamondbacks send out their ace to try to climb back to .500. Brandon Webb faces Manny Parra of the Brewers. Parra tends to give up long balls on the road, with the opposition hitting seven home runs in 34 1/3 innings. Webb is coming off a month in which he failed to average six innings per start.

The Yankees get a chance to gain on the wild card leader as Boston comes into town for a four game series. It starts with a battle of lefties as Jon Lester takes on Andy Pettitte. Except for his last start, Lester is on a roll. In his last nine starts he posted a 2.97 ERA, allowing just three home runs. Pettitte was roughed up by Kansas City early in June, but he's been lights out since. In his last four starts, Andy posted a 1.00 ERA and only allowed 19 hits in 27 innings.

With the Giants making a 4:05 PDT start, the east coast gets to see Tim Lincecum in prime time as the Cubs' Sean Gallagher stands in opposition. Gallagher is another pitcher who gets pounded on the road. He's yet to allow a home run at Wrigley this season, but the six hit off him on the road led to a .488 away slugging percentage allowed. Lincecum is just the opposite. All five home runs hit off him came in San Francisco.

Atlanta gets one more chance to gain ground on Philadelphia as Cole Hamels visits Jair Jurrjens. Both boast eight wins and low ERAs. Hamels is extremely effective against right-handed batters this season. Lefties are hitting .211, righties .212, and lefties have a higher slugging percentage. Jurrjens is coming off a great June in which he posted a 1.63 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 02, 2008
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Two games feature outstanding pitching matchups in division races. This afternoon, Dana Eveland takes on Joe Saunders in the rubber game of the Oakland-LAnaheim series. Eveland's strength rests in his home runs allowed, three in 97 innings pitched. His walks are becoming a worry, however, as he issued more free passes than strikeouts in June, walking 20 in 30 2/3 innings. Saunders pitches his best outing of the season against Oakland at the end of April, eight shutout innings allowing four hits and one walk while striking out five.

Tonight, the Red Sox try to salvage one game of this series against the Rays as they send Daisuke Matsuzaka against Scott Kazmir. Dice-K returned to form in his second start since coming off the disabled list, allowing two hits and no runs against Houston. On the season he remains tough to hit, allowing a .206 BA. If batters can be selective against Matsuzaka, teams can put runners on base with walks and hope one of those rare hits comes after a couple of those.

Kazmir is lights out at home this season. Opponents are hitting .153 against Scott, and he's allowing a slugging percentage (.242) lower than his OBA allowed (.243). That's an OPS less than .500 against Kazmir at Tropicana Field.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
July 01, 2008
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The revolution in the AL East continues tonight with the Red Sox sending Tim Wakefield against the Rays Matt Garza. Wakefield is posting his lowest ERA since 2002, when he spent most of the season in the pen. As a pure starter, this is the lowest his ERA's been since 1995, his first season with the Red Sox. Garza's June was his best month of the season in terms of strikeouts and walks. He fanned 26 while walking just seven in 31 1/3 innings.

At the other end of the standings, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati battle for last in the NL Central with Zach Duke taking on Edinson Volquez. Batter put lots of balls in play against Duke, but in the last two months, fewer are falling for hits. Volquez is quite the opposite. With high strikeout and walk totals, few balls are put in play, and the opposition is hitting just .202 against him.

Does anyone think Cliff Lee might be Cleveland's trade bait instead of C.C. Sabathia? Lee's trade value may never be higher as he tries to stop the White Sox and John Danks. John's home runs allowed are down from 40.3 per 200 innings in 2007 to 12.9 per 200 in 2008. That's 2/3 fewer long balls over the same amount of innings.

That Athletics try to shave another game off the Angels lead as Rich Harden faces Ervin Santana. Rich only pitched 16 innings on the road this season, but has yet to allow a home run away from home. Santana's walks jumped in June. We'll see if a selective A's team can take advantage of that.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 30, 2008
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The Red Sox visit the first place Tampa Bay Rays tonight with 1/2 game separating the two clubs. Justin Masterson takes the hill for the Red Sox. His most impressive number is the .195 batting average he's allowed to opponents. That's somewhat neutralized by his high number of walks, but still, a .306 opponents OBA is very good. Five of the six home runs he allowed came off the bats of lefties. James Shields is charged with keeping the Rays in first place. He's pitched to a bit of tough luck this season as his 3.76 ERA only produced a 5-5 record. The Rays scored two runs or less in five of his starts. However, he has a four run difference in ERA home and road, posting a 1.99 mark in Tampa Bay. Only three of his eleven home runs allowed came at home.

There will be no Coco Crisp tonight, as he's serving his suspension. It was Shields and Crisp who were the initial combatants in the June 5th fight that led to the sanctions.

The Tigers are moving up in the AL Central, now just five games back of the White Sox and 3 1/2 behind the Twins. They visit Minnesota for a three game series with Armando Galarraga facing Glen Perkins. Galarraga is undefeated in June at 3-0, allowing just seven walks in 26 1/3 innings. Perkins allows a .315 opponents BA, and all nine of his home runs allowed came off right-handed bats. With Detroit's right-handed power, that could be a problem. However, Perkins's best start of the season came against the Tigers. He gave up one run in 7 2/3 innings on May 25th at Comerica.

Milwaukee and Arizona are both in tight pennant races. They face each other in Phoenix as Dave Bush takes on former Brewer Doug Davis. Bush is finishing up a fine June in which he controlled the long ball and reduced his already fine walk rate. Davis tries to keep the Diamondbacks above .500. He's 0-1 in five June starts despite a 3.03 ERA. The Diamondbacks won two of those starts, 2-1 and 1-0 victories.

Finally, Oakland starts first place week as they play both the Angels and the White Sox. Tonight, Greg Smith starts against John Garland. Smith has run into some trouble in June. His walks have gone up, and along with those his ERA. Garland has not pitched well in Anaheim this season, posting a 4.88 ERA at home. He walks a lot more batters in Angels Stadium than on the road.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2008
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The Arizona Diamondbacks avoided falling under .500 with a win against the Marlins Saturday night. They'll try to extend that to two games over as they send Dan Haren against Scott Olsen. Haren's cut his walks allowed per nine innings from a great 2.2 in 2007 to a fantastic 1.5 in 2008. Olsen reduced his hits allowed versus 2007. Last season Scott allowed a .315 batting average. This year, with a .237 BA allowed, his .307 OBA is even lower than last season's BA.

Ben Sheets and Kevin Slowey hook up in Minnesota as the Brewers try to make it two in a row over the Twins. Sheets traded walks for home runs in June versus May. Last month, he allowed seven home runs and two walks. So far in June he's given up two home runs while walking eight. Starting with his win against Milwaukee on 6/13, Slowey's pitched three good games in a row, allowing three earned runs in 22 innings while striking out 16 and walking two.

The Dodgers try to win a game with a hit today, but they'll have a tough time as John Lackey takes the hill against Derek Lowe. Part of Lackey's success this season comes from demolishing left-handed batters. For his career through 2007, lefties hit Lackey a bit better than righties.
This season, lefties aren't even hitting the Mendoza line against Lackey. Left-handed batters are picking up few hits, few walks, and very little power.

Lowe's ERA is about a run better in Dodger Stadium than on the road this season, but that hasn't translated into more wins for the pitcher. He's just 4-3 at home. Lowe has allowed eight stolen bases in ten attempts this season, so look for the Angels to run.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2008
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Fox picks up two good games for the national broadcast as the Cubs and White Sox continue their series on the south side and the Yankees and Mets meet again in Queens. Sean Gallagher faces Javier Vazquez in Chicago. Unfortunately, since the teams get to use the designated hitter, Gallagher won't be able to smash a watermelon at home plate. Opponents aren't mashing Sean, either, as he's allowed just four home runs in 47 2/3 innings. Vazquez is trying to end June on a high note. He's posted a 6.94 ERA for the month, allowing six of his thirteen homers since June first.

Lefties battle at Shea Stadium as Andy Pettitte takes on Johan Santana. Andy is on a roll, allowing just one run in his last three starts. He struck out 19 an walked four in 21 innings of work. I was reading an open thread on a Mets site the last time Santana pitched, and Mets fans seem disappointed in Johan. His stats, however, are very good; most teams will take a 2.93 ERA. He is allowing a few more hits, but I wonder how much of that is the Mets defense?

The Diamondbacks try to stay above .500 as they send Brandon Webb against Andrew Miller. Webb is averaging just over five innings in his four June starts. He was at seven in April and May. Miller's been up and down this month with three good starts and two poor ones.

Home runs are keeping Cole Hamels ERA higher than the elite pitchers of the league. Twenty two of the forty three runs he allowed scored via the fourteen homers he allowed. He'll try to keep the Texas hitters in the park as he faces Vicente Padilla. He's been very tough this season with men on base, allowing a .202 BA with men on and a .186 BA with men in scoring position.

The best matchup of the day takes place in Oakland where Tim Lincecum matches up against Justin Duchscherer. Tim is undefeated on the road, 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA. He's yet to allow a long ball away from AT&T Park. With a 1.99 ERA, Duchscherer need three innings to qualify for the AL ERA lead. Eight innings should put him among the qualifiers for good.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 27, 2008
Chicago Series
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I mistakenly left the Cubs-White Sox game off the games of the day. It's actually one of the better matchups of the day with Ryan Dempster facing Jose Contreras. Ryan's home/road spilt continues to be mind boggling. He's 9-0 at Wrigley in ten starts, 0-2 on the road in six starts despite a lower ERA. Part of that may be the defenses fault, as he's allowed six unearned runs on the road but only one at home. Ten of those sixteen also came as a result of home runs. His split of home runs makes me wonder if the wind has been blowing in at Wrigley this season.

Contreras has limited the power against him to bases empty situations this season. With no one on, opponents have 20 extra-base hits and a .388 slugging percentage. With men on base, they have five extra-base hits and a .318 slugging percentage, despite a higher batting average.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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To prove the point of the previous post, Royals cast off Runelvys Hernandez starts for Houston tonight against the Boston Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Hernandez hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, and posted a career 5.38 ERA in his time with Kansas City. Dice-K makes his second start since coming off the DL, and almost has to do better than the seven runs in one inning which caused his ERA to jump a run.

Milwaukee and Minnesota are making comebacks in their divisions as Seth McClung faces Nick Blackburn. McClung holds a 2.10 ERA on the road, mostly due to allowing fewer home runs away from Miller Park. Blackburn's taken over the Carlos Silva role on the team. He doesn't walk batters and strikes out very few, depending on the Twins defense to keep his ERA low.

The Yankees and Mets are playing a split-park double header, and you just have to love the matchup in game two where Sidney Ponson faces Pedro Martinez at Shea. Why does anyone think Ponson can pitch? He had one good year in his career and has a 4.90 career ERA. About the only sign Pedro shows that he can still pitch is the six walks he's issued in 24 2/3 innings. He can still fool batters sometimes, as he's picked up seventeen strikeouts, but the 36 hits against him indicate he's not fooling them often enough.

Finally, in the battle of Los Angeles, Joe Saunders and Chan Ho Park battle at Dodger Stadium. Saunders posts a 1.89 ERA on the road this season, allowing just two of his twelve home runs away from Anaheim. Park should never have left the Dodgers. He's a different pitcher at Dodger Stadium, striking out more, walking fewer and keeping the ball in the park.

Enjoy!

Correction: Runelvys pitched for Kansas City.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Twins go for a sweep of the Padres this afternoon as they send Scott Baker against Josh Banks. Baker is just 3-2 this season, but he's sporting a 4.9 strikeout to walk ratio. Banks also is a control artist. Since moving into the Padres rotation he's walked one and struck out 15.

Matt Cain battles Cliff Lee in Cleveland this afternoon. Cain's strikeout and walk numbers aren't that different from his teammate Tim Lincecum, but Cain allows more home runs. He also has a tendency to give up his extra base hits with men on base, as opponents are slugging .507 against him in that situation. Lee pitched somewhat more normally in June, posting a 4.18 ERA so far. He's still showing great control, however, walking just five in 23 2/3 innings.

Finally, the Reds and Blue Jays finish up their series as Edinson Volquez faces Jesse Litsch. Volquez continues to avoid bats with walks and strikeouts, holding opponents to a .196 BA and a .262 slugging percentage. Litsch gives up hits instead of walks, so his OBA allowed is only 10 points higher than Volquez. However, a good number of his hits go for home runs, accounting for the higher ERA.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 25, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Milwaukee Brewers try to extend their winning streak to five games and sweep the former Milwaukee Braves as Jeff Suppan faces Jorge Campillo. Suppan's 5.70 road ERA comes mostly from his allowing seven of his nine home runs away from Miller Park (he must be a Star Trek fan). Campillo is showing great control this year, walking a batter every five innings.

Kyle Lohse and Armando Galarraga offer the best pitching matchup of the day. They are a combined 16-4 this season. Lohse took advantage of moving out of good home run parks to cut his rate of long balls allowed in half, dropping his ERA a run. Armando's strength is keeping the bases empty, allowing just a .254 OBA with no one on.

Runs galore in Cleveland today as Barry Zito faces Jeremy Sowers. Batters have an OPS against Sowers of .978. As a hitter, you'll be in contention for the MVP at that level. Zito isn't much better at .894. He's allowing a .411 OBA. That's turning every batter he faces into Wade Boggs!

Finally, Gavin Floyd takes on Eric Stults at Dodger Stadium. Floyd managed to keep his ERA low in June despite allowing as many home runs as April and May combined. Eight of the seventeen runs he allowed were unearned. Stults made an good first start against the Reds, allowing one earned run while walking one and striking out five in six innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 24, 2008
Games of the Day
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There's a rather uninspiring set of pitching matchups today. Arizona sends Doug Davis against Justin Masterson in best of the lot, although it would have made for a great story line to see Davis pitch against Jon Lester. Davis is posting a 2.78 ERA in June, but he's not pitching that well. He's only averaging about five innings a start with a high walk rate. He hasn't allowed a home run, however. Masterson's ERA looks la lot better than the stats producing it. The Hardball Times has his FIP ERA at 4.97. Either Justin really is hard to hit, or he's had a really good defense behind him.

The Reds visit the Blue Jays, which will no doubt lead to a lot of talk about Adam Dunn and J.P. Ricciardi. Adam Dunn is a player teams should want.

The Rays took two out of three against the Marlins in Tampa Bay, and now the Marlins try to return the favor in Miami. Andy Sonnanstine takes on Scott Olsen. Sonnanstine keeps winning despite a high ERA because he's getting 5.72 runs per 9 innings, 10th highest in the AL. Olsen's done a good job of capping opponents' power with men on base, 10 of the 12 home runs he's allowed going for solo shots.

The Reds/Blue Jays and Mariners/Mets should be competing for slugfest of the night, but all four offenses are so bad even facing pitchers with ERAs over 5.00 probably won't help them.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 23, 2008
Games of the Day
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MLB scheduled just five games tonight, but a few of them sport fine pitching matchups. First place clubs battle in Boston as the Diamondbacks take on the Red Sox. Dan Haren takes the mound for Arizona sporting a 3.26 ERA. He's given up quite a few hits at Fenway, leading to an 0-3 record and a 4.60 ERA. Josh Beckett pitches for the host team. He's pitched very well starting 5/24, and hasn't allowed a home run in his last three starts.

Milwaukee is making a run at the wild card and sends Ben Sheets against Jo-Jo Reyes in Atlanta. Sheets is undefeated on the road with a 5-0 record, but Atlanta owns one of the best home records in the majors. Reyes, on the other hand, hasn't fared well at home. He posts a 5.17 in Atlanta this year versus 2.83 on the road.

A pair of aces take the mound for new managers as the Mets host the Mariners at Shea. I wonder how the crowd will react to Jerry Manuel in his first home game as manager? He'll send Johan Santana against Felix Hernandez. King Felix owns a 1.90 road ERA, third best in the American League. We're starting to see the Santana second half surge. He owns a 2.03 ERA in June, but poor support means a 1-2 record in four starts in the month. He's only allowed one home runs so far in June after giving up twelve in the first third of the season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2008
Games of the Day
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Two members of the class of 2006 face off in Philadelphia this afternoon as Jered Weaver faces Cole Hamels. Both pitchers came up two seasons ago and hold similar records. Weaver is at 30-16, Hamels 31-17 for their careers. The own similar ERAs, 3.67 for Weaver, 3.56 for Hamels. Their career, however, are going in different directions:

ERA by Season
SeasonWeaverHamels
20062.564.08
20073.913.39
20084.733.23

Weaver did not maintain the high strikeout rate of his first season, and his hits allowed went up. Hamels remained an elite strikeout pitcher and kept his walks low. He's developed into the ace of the Phillies staff, where Weaver is a fourth or fifth starter.

Tim Lincecum and Kyle Davies battle in Kansas City. Lincecum is battling Edinson Volquez for best young pitcher in the National League and for a Cy Young award. His home run rate is just 10.2 per 200 innings this season. Davies allowed 28.2 home runs per 200 innings in his career, but has yet to allow a long ball in 24 2/3 innings of work in 2008. That's one reason his ERA is below 2.00. Although he's walked 12 batters, he's yet to allow an extra base hit with men on base.

Finally, the White Sox try to salvage a game against the Cubs as Javier Vazquez takes the hill against Ryan Dempster at Wrigley on ESPN. Vazquez is suffering through a rough June. His walks and hits are both up, resulting in a 7.27 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .190 against Ryan at home with a .281 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2008
Games of the Day
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Daisuke Matsuzaka

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Photo: Icon SMI


The Reds give Daryl Thompson a tough assignment for his major league debut. At 22, he was tearing up AA, but gave up four home runs in his 19 innings at AAA. He'll face Dan Giese who was shadowing Joba Chamberlain before Wang went down with a foot injury. He'll get a chance to fill in for Chien. He's only walked one in 7 1/3 innings of relief. His control has been there throughout his long minor league career, but didn't get him to the majors until 2007.

C.C. Sabathia visits Los Angeles as he faces Chan Ho Park at Dodger Stadium. C.C. Recovered well from his poor start. He walked 14 in his first four games, 15 in his 11 starts since. Park returned to the park of his greatest success. He's posting a 0.50 ERA at Dodger Stadium, 4.74 on the road.

Daisuke Matsuzaka returns to the Red Sox after a rotator cuff problem kept him out for nearly a month. It will be interesting to see if his control improves with the healed shoulder. Mitchell Boggs makes the third start and fourth appearance of his career. His low strikeout rate and high walk rate does not match up well against Boston. They'll wait for him to throw strikes, and pitching to contact against a team that hits well just isn't a good idea.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2008
Games of the Day
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The central division leaders meet at Wrigley Field this afternoon as the White Sox face the Cubs. The Cubs hold the best record in baseball while the White Sox are tied for the biggest division lead. Both teams are coming off sweep. The White Sox demolished the Pirates by a combined score of 37-15 while the Cubs let the Rays squeak by them in two games by one run. John Danks takes the hill for the visitors. He's pitched well on the road this season. His 1.72 away ERA is a result of more strikeouts and fewer home runs. Ted Lilly stands in opposition. The Cubs lefty has better opposition batting numbers at home, but a higher ERA. He's given up a high batting average with runners in scoring position at Wrigley, and four of the six homers he's allowed at home came with men on base.

In another possible World Series matchup, the Angels travel to Philadelphia as Ervin Santana faces Adam Eaton. Santana's ERA is on the rise again in June, giving up more hits than innings pitched in a month for the first time this season. Eaton's lower ERA in 2008 is attributable to his cutting his home runs and walks allowed by 1/3 compared to 2007.

A great pitching matchup in New York tonight as Edinson Volquez takes on Mike Mussina. At 10.74 K per 9, Volquez is one strikeout per nine innings better than any qualifying NL pitcher. Mussina's cut his ERA almost 1.5 runs compared to 2007. His strikeouts and walks are a little better than 2007, and his home run rate is higher. Fewer balls in play, however, are landing for hits. It appears that Mike made a change to fool left-handed batters:

Mike Mussina Batting Average Allowed
BA Allowed20072008
Vs. LHB .315.234
Vs. RHB .307.309

What ever trick Mussina discovered, it has lefties looking for answers.

Finally, two teams looking to move up from second place battle in Oakland as the Marlins visit the Athletics. Mark Hendrickson appears to have lost his ace status as he's posted an 11.05 ERA over his last five starts. Rich Harden struck out 26 in his 18 2/3 June innings.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:48 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 19, 2008
Games of the Day
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Inexperienced starters matchup at Yankee Stadium as Josh Banks faces Joba Chamberlain. Banks so far is doing a great job of limiting both home runs and walks. Joba is walking a lot more batters as a starter than as a reliever, but so far he's limited extra base hits to cover that weakness. Joba should be off pitch counts at this point, so waiting him out may not be an option for the Padres.

At the other end of the evening, Cleveland and Colorado might offer a great slugfest. Sowers comes into the game with a 7.23 ERA, de la Rosa 6.89. Sowers is giving up 42.9 homers per 200 innings, de la Rosa 30.6.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Red Sox and Phillies play the rubber game of their series this afternoon as Justin Masterson faces Kyle Kendrick. The Phillies have done a good job of holding Boston's offense in check, allowing just five runs in two games. Kendrick, with few strikeouts and walks, allows a lot of balls in play. The Red Sox have a .310 BABIP, the second highest in the American League, so they're in a good position to score some runs against Kyle. Masterson doesn't give up many hits, but most of the ones he does allow go for extra bases. That's doesn't bode well against a powerful Phillies lineup. This could be a high scoring affair today.

In New York, Jake Peavy takes on Darrell Rasner as Jake tries to cool the Yankees offense. In winning five in a row, New York scored 35 runs. Peavy hasn't repeated his great road performance of 2007, allowing five of his six home runs on the road. Rasner is posting a 1.71 ERA at Yankee Stadium, allowing just one walk and one home run in 21 innings of work there.

Shaun Marcum and Ben Sheets meet as two players pitching well for disappointing teams. Marcum's knocked a run off his ERA every month so far this season, posting a 1.29 ERA in June. Opponents are hitting just .194 against him overall. Sheets ability to keep batters off base resulted in nine of the eleven home runs he allowed going for solo shots.

Finally, Dan Haren faces his former teammates as he takes on Joe Blanton in Arizona. Blanton's stock is falling as his low K rate is resulting in opponents hitting .278 against him with a .425 slugging percentage. Haren is just as good as Joe in limiting walks, but with a higher K rate, opponents are batting just .229 against Dan.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2008
Games of the Day
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Lou Piniella returns to his home and previous managerial job as the Cubs take on the Rays in Tampa Bay. The leadoff with a great pitching matchup as Ryan Dempster faces Scott Kazmir. The fact that Dempster is 0-2 on the road despite a better ERA away from Wrigley says something about the Cubs offense. Kazmir is about 20 innings short of counting among the league leaders in ERA, but if he can maintain this level of play he should take over that role sometime in July.

Atlanta travels to another good hitters park as Tim Hudson faces Vicente Padilla in Texas. Chipper Jones is at .403 after a 2 for 4 game in Colorado, and will need a couple of hits or some walks to start above .400 after tonight's game. Hudson has a 6.23 career ERA in Arlington, and didn't get out of the third inning the one time he visited with Atlanta. Padilla's stats look worse than his ERA indicates. He makes the opposition look like power hitters, but most of that power comes with the bases empty.

St. Louis hosts cross-state rivals Kansas City, with the Cardinals clubhouse looking more like a rehab center. They'll face Kyle Davies, who is off to a good start since returning to the major league club. He's posting a 1.53 ERA despite nine walks in 17 2/3 innings. Joel Piniero does a much better job of limiting free passes, but opponents are hitting .326 with runners in scoring position against Joel.

The west coast offers three excellent matchups. Jerry Manuel gets to start his tenure with Johan Santana on the mound facing John Lackey. Both pitchers keep their walks low and their strikeouts high, and both can give up a home run.

Justin Duchscherer faces Brandon Webb as the Athletics travel to Arizona. Duchscherer is another pitcher, like Dempster, making a very successful move from relief to starting. Webb goes for his seventh win versus no losses at home.

Finally, Scott Olsen takes on Felix Hernandez in Seattle. Olsen's done a good job of removing base runners this season, inducing seven double plays while base runners are only 3 for 8 stealing. King Felix has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts, and only one run overall.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2008
Games of the Day
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Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels
Photo: Icon SMI

The Phillies host the Red Sox in what could be a preview of the World Series. While both teams have great records, each has the smallest lead of any first place team in their respective leads. They are going to need to continue to play well to hold off the competition. Bartolo Colon takes on Cole Hamels this evening. Colon took a while to find a job, but with a 3.41 ERA, the Red Sox are happy everyone else passed. Bartolo has walked just seven batters in 29 innings of work. Hamels turned into the ace of the Phillies staff, averaging over seven innings per start. He's a left hander who is nearly as effective against right-handed batters with a .595 OPS against lefties and a .631 OPS against righties.

Chipper Jones tries to bounce his batting average safely above .400 again as the Braves visit Coors Field. Jair Jurrjens faces Ubaldo Jimenez. Jair missed his last start with an injury, so he should be well rested. His ERA is about two runs higher on the road this season, and pitching in Colorado probably won't help that. Jimenez pitched his best at Coors in 2008, with a walk rate about half of the one he shows on the road.

The Mets visit the other LA, as Mike Pefrey matches up with Jered Weaver and the Angels. All eyes will be watching to see if Willie Randolph maintains his position as manager. The two teams are at the opposite ends of one-run game success, the Angels third in the majors at 13-8, the Mets third from the bottom at 6-10.


Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum
Photo: Icon SMI


The Marlins go from facing one of the best teams in the majors to one of the worst as they make the long flight from Tampa Bay to Seattle. Andrew Miller and Carlos Silva are headed in opposite directions in terms of ERA. After a 3-0 start in April, Silva is 0-7 with an 8.79 ERA. After a 9.12 ERA in April, Miller's been pitching to a 3.00 mark since.

Finally, Justin Verlander and the streaking Tigers take on Tim Lincecum and the reeling Giants. Justin posted a 2.57 ERA in his last six starts, allowing just one home run. Lincecum is one of four regular starters (70 IP) with more strikeouts than innings pitched. San Francisco is 10-4 in Tim's starts, 20-36 otherwise.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:31 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2008
Games of the Day
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The fans in Cleveland get a treat today as Greg Maddux faces C.C. Sabathia. Maddux pitched at Jacobs Field twice before, in 1995 World Series and in 2006 with the Cubs. Both times he gave up four runs in about seven innings. Maddux has a 1.38 ERA this June but has a no decision in both starts. C.C. is also pitching well this month, posting a 2.40 ERA with thirteen strikeouts and three walks.

The Rockies and White Sox play the rubber game of their series with Aaron Cook and Jose Contreras on the mound. Cook represents the only consistently good starter on Colorado this year. He's pitched well both at home on the road this season, and is almost as effective against lefty batters as righties. Contreras's opponents have a combined OPS of .601.

Finally, a great pitching matchup on ESPN this evening as Atlanta send Jorge Campillo against Joe Saunders. Campillo stepped into a rotation destroyed by injuries and so far posted a 2.96 ERA as a starter, striking out 21 in 24 1/3 innings. Saunders is coming off the worst start of his season and is looking a bit more human lately. He's allowed 17 runs, 14 earned over his last three starts.

Enjoy!

Correction: Maddux was in Cleveland in 1995, not 1996.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 14, 2008
Games of the Day
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Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez
Photo: Icon SMI

The Red Sox were not able to get to Aaron Harrang last night, despite the Reds ace having an off year. Today they get the emerging ace of the staff, Edinson Volquez. He's leading the NL in ERA by over 0.4 runs. He's still wild, but his high number of strikeouts and low number of home runs are keeping his ERA low. Tim Wakefield at age 41 continues to keep his value. Opponents can run on him, however, as he's allowed 17 stolen bases in 21 attempts.

Mike Mussina tries to become the AL's second ten game winner as he faces Wandy Rodriguez and the Houston Astros. Since Hank Steinbrenner's rant, Mike is 8-1 with a 3.11 ERA. He's only walked 1.3 per nine innings in that time. Wandy's been nearly untouchable at home, posting a 0.72 ERA in four starts at Minute Maid.

Meanwhile, Cliff Lee tries to go to eleven against the Padres and Cha Seung Baek. Lee's been a little more human lately, allowing eleven earned runs in his last three starts.

Finally, the Bay area offers a nice matchup of good young pitchers. Rich Harden faces Matt Cain. Harden owns the highest K per 9 mark in the majors for any pitcher with at least 45 innings.
Cain's main problem this season is his increase in home runs. He allowed 14 in 2007, 12 so far this season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2008
Games of the Day
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The battle of Florida takes on special meaning this season as both Sunshine State teams are in the playoff hunt. Ryan Tucker takes the mound for the Marlins, making the second start of his career. He only allowed one run in five innings against Cincinnati. Despite walking five, he struck out six and allowed just two hits. He'll face Andy Sonnanstine. Andy continues his great walk rate of 2007, but also his high batting average allowed, .302.

The Yankees send Joba Chamberlain into Houston to face former Yankees short lived wonder Shaun Chacon. Joba has a 4.05 ERA as a starter so far, mostly due to more walks. He should get to throw about 90 pitches tonight. After a strong start, Chacon has allowed 11 earned runs in his last six innings pitched. Home runs have been flying out of Minute Maid the last two games, so the pitcher who does a better job of keeping the ball in the park is likely to get the win tonight.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 12, 2008
Games of the Day
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It's a good afternoon to take a late, long lunch and watch some baseball at your local watering hole. The Diamondbacks and Mets start us off with Dan Haren facing Johan Santana. Haren is looking for his first win on the road, where he owns a 4.94 ERA in five starts. The biggest change for Santana this season is his batting average allowed. Through 2007, opponents hit just .221 off Johan. This year, it's .251.

The Braves try to win one on the road as their one uninjured starter, Tim Hudson takes on Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. Hudson has yet to give up a home run to a right-hander this season, and six of the seven hit off him were solo shots. Zambrano is off to a great start despite his second straight year showing a major drop in strikeouts. His K per 9 innings number for the last three seasons: 8.8 in 2006, 7.4 2007, 6.1 in 2008.

Jake Peavy returns to the mound in San Diego to host the Dodgers and Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda pitched well in his first start against the Padres, allowing three hits in seven innings. Jake is getting slammed by lefties this season, allowing a .357 OBA and a .365 slugging percentage. For some reason, however, he's faced about 40 more righties than lefties.

For those of you more interested in night baseball, Florida can pull to within one game of Philadelphia with a sweep of the Phillies tonight. Jamie Moyer takes on Scott Olsen. Moyer refuses to walk batters, so he gives up hits and home runs. With the Phillies superb offense, however, Jamie can win pitching like that. Runners have problems stealing against Olsen, as only eight attempts have been tried and only three of those were successful.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 11, 2008
Games of the Day
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It's tough not to find a good pitching matchup today, but the two afternoon games may offer the best. Seattle sends Felix Hernandez against Toronto's Shaun Marcum at 12:30 PM EDT. King Felix is benefiting from the lack of power in the AL this season, cutting his home runs allowed by about 1/3. For the first time since his rookie season, he's also allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. Marcum seems to be getting better as the season progresses. In his last three starts he's allowed four four earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work.

Scott Kazmir and John Lackey each had their seasons delayed by injury, and each has pitched like a Cy Young winner since returning to the rotation. The two meet in Anaheim this afternoon in the rubber match of their three game series. Tampa Bay failed to catch the Red Sox last night as they lost 6-1 to the Angels. Kazmir's strikeouts are down a tiny bit this season, but his improved control and ability to keep the ball in the park are well worth fewer Ks. Lackey is also showing tremendous control with a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Brandon Webb goes for his 12th win of the season as he faces Mike Pelfry and the Mets. Webb is averaging nearly seven innings a start, one reason he's received a decision in all thirteen starts. He had a rough outing versus New York earlier this year, allowing four runs in six innings but still walked away with the win. Mike Pelfry is at the dangerous point where his walks are about even with his strikeouts, and his walks aren't low.

Texas and Kansas City square off again with Vicente Padilla and Kyle Davies matching up on the mound. It's not clear why Padilla's ERA is two runs lower than last year. He's giving up more home runs and about the same number of walks, but his hits allowed are down. Opponents are just 11 for 60 against him with runners in scoring position, so it may be his timing is just better. In his first two starts this season, Davies has shut down left-handed batters, holding them to a 4 for 27, a .148 BA. Given that lefties represent 3/5 of the at bats against Kyle, it's no wonder he's allowed just two runs so far.

Finally, the Yankees try to start their road trip 2-0 as they send Darrell Rasner against Justin Duchscherer. The most impressive change about Rasner this season is his control. He's struck out 23 and walked just five. He came into the season with 26 K and 15 walks. Duchscherer should give some hope to Yankees fans who worry about Joba moving from the bullpen to the rotation. His ERA of 2.32 this season is in line with his best years as a setup man in the pen.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 10, 2008
Games of the Day
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Four games behind the Phillies, the Marlins open a three game series against the NL East leaders tonight. Brett Myers has hardly been a ace this season, coming into the game with a 3-7 record and a 5.13 ERA. He's pitched better in his last two starts, however, allowing four runs in 15 1/3 innings. The Marlins send Ricky Nolasco, who is 5-4 despite not pitching all that well. He's allowing opposition hitters a .345 OBA and a .496 slugging percentage.

The Astros trail the Brewers by 1 1/2 games for third place in the NL Central, and host Seth McClung against Roy Oswalt. McClung's 3.54 relief ERA hasn't translated well into the starter's role. His strikeouts dropped and his hits allowed increased. The Astros lost Oswalt's last four starts, only scoring two runs in three of those games. Home runs are still Roy's problem, as he needs to allow just two more to equal his career high.

The Rays are coming off a big win against the Angels and send James Shields against Jered Weaver tonight. Shields should be well rested, as he only lasted an inning against the Red Sox. He hit Coco Crisp and was ejected after the brawl. I like the way he built on his 2007 success by reducing his home run allowed rate. Weaver's done nothing to build on his successful rookie year. His ERA is up again in 2008, and his hits allowed per nine remain well above his 2006 numbers.

The Padres trail the Dodgers by three games as they two teams open a series in San Diego. Rookie Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for Los Angeles. He's struck out 14 in his first 14 2/3 innings, but walked nine. Clayton is still looking for his first win. He'll face the opposite end of the spectrum, 350 game winner Greg Maddux. Maddux is still an all-star when he pitches at PETCO, posting a 1.73 ERA there in six starts. He only has a 1-0 record to show for it, however.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 08, 2008
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Joba Chamberlain make his second start against a team less likely to try to wait him out. The Royals have drawn the fewest walks in the American League this season, meaning they're not a team that sits back and waits for their pitch. Joba does seem to be in rotation against everyone else's aces, however, as he draws Zack Greinke. His best game of the season came on April 9th when he shutout the Yankees for eight innings.

The Orioles go for a sweep of the Blue Jays as Toronto's pitching went south just as the Blue Jays offense came to life. Roy Halladay tries to turn that around. He's pitching well in Toronto this season, allowing a .234 OBA there. He'll face Radhames Liz, making his second start of the season. So far, so good as he walked one and struck out four in 5 1/3 innings in his first start.

The Cardinals and Astros play the rubber game of their series as both teams try to narrow the gap with the Cubs. Kyle Lohse takes the hill for St. Louis, still one of the best signings of the winter. He's another pitcher who has really reduced his home run rate, from 22.8 per 200 innings in 2007 to 8.1 in 2008. Wandy Rodriguez was roughed up by the Cardinals in his first start coming off the DL, but rebounded to shutout the Pirates for six innings in his last start.

Finally, the Oakland Athletics try to salvage a win in their series against the Angels as Rich Harden hosts Ervin Santana. Last season, Santana gave up 24 more hits than innings pitched. This year, he's allowed 17 fewer hits than innings. Harden's posted a 1.76 ERA in his five home starts, although all three of his homers allowed came in Oakland.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 07, 2008
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The Cubs continue their series with the Dodgers, sending Carlos Zambrano versus Derek Lowe. Not only has Carlos limited opponents to just four home runs this season, only one of those came with men on base. After a rough few starts in May, Lowe turned it around in his last three, allowing just three runs in 22 innings, including seven shutout innings against the Cubs. He's walked just five batters in that span.

After a 10-6 Chicago victory last night, the first place White Sox try to send Minnesota farther back in the standings as they send Mark Buehrle to host Livan Hernandez. Livan proved to be the innings eater the Twins needed, often pitching into the seventh inning. Despite the league hitting him hard (.339 BA, .506 slugging allowed), he's somehow managed a 4.81 ERA. The opposition is hitting Buehrle not quite as hard (.304, .470) but his ERA is well over 5.00.

Jon Garland tries to make it two in a row for the Angels over the Athletics and Greg Smith. Jon only struck out 22 so far this year, well below his 29 walks. It's a rate where the number of balls in play tend to inflate the pitcher's batting average allowed, and opponents are hitting .280 against Garland. Smith struck out 53 so far this season, and his batting average against is just .230.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 06, 2008
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Atlanta just took three out of four from Florida and now hosts the first place Phillies. A three game sweep would put Atlanta 1/2 game behind Philadelphia. Old AL West rivals Jamie Moyer and Tim Hudson pitch game one. Moyer's pitched very well away from Citizen's Bank Ballpark, posting a 3.41 ERA on the road. All seven of Hudson's home runs allowed came off left-handed bats, which may be a problem tonight with Philadelphia's left-handed power.

The Minnesota Twins are 2 1/2 games behind the White Sox as they open a four game series in Chicago on the south side. Nick Blackburn faces Javier Vazquez in the opener. Nick's 1-1 against the White Sox this season with a 4.00 ERA. Chicago has been able to draw walks and hit home runs against Blackburn, two things that represent strengths for the pitcher overall. Vazquez is pitching extremely well, putting up tremendous strikeout and walk numbers.

The final 1-2 matchup pits the Angels and John Lackey against the Athletics and Joe Blanton. John's been great since returning from the disabled list, posting a 1.80 ERA. The only negative is that he's allowed four homers in 30 innings. Joe Blanton has to be a disappointment for Oakland. Expected to be the staff ace, Blanton gives up a decently low OBA, but a lot of that is on the hit side of the ledger and the hits go for extra bases. He's only had one outstanding start since the beginning of May.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 05, 2008
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Homer Bailey returns to the Reds and is thrown into a tough situation, facing the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Homer's had a down year at AAA, walking 31 in 69 1/3 innings and posting a 4.15 ERA. Hamels is the anchor of the Phillies rotation, holding the opposition to a .277 OBA.

Tampa Bay tries to regain first place this evening as James Shields takes on Jon Lester. Shields is building nicely on his 2007 success, reducing his home runs allowed rate, bring his ERA down over half a run. Lester is taking a similar route, reducing both his home runs and hits allowed, which brought his ERA down nearly a run.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 04, 2008
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The Braves can move into a virtual tie with the Marlins this afternoon as Mark Hendrickson takes on Tom Glavine. Mark did not repeat his excellent April, allowing 13 more hits, six more walks and two more home runs during May in about the same number of innings. Glavine's lost some durability from last season. In 2007, he came close to pitching six innings per start. In 2008, he's lost close to an inning off that.

It's the rhyme game in San Francisco as Maine face Cain. The Giants offense is playing better lately, scoring 83 runs in their last 15 games, 5.5 runs per game. They haven't turned that into a big winning streak, however, as they've gone 8-7 in that time. They've been particularly good against New York this season, scoring 16 runs in two games.

The Angels are burying the Mariners in the AL West. With a win today the Angels sweep the series in Seattle and push the Mariners 15 1/2 games back. To add insult to injury, the Angels won the first two games without Vlad Guerrero in the lineup. Jered Weaver and Carlos Silva matchup this afternoon.

Tonight, Edinson Volquez gets a tough challenge as he faces the red hot Phillies and Brett Myers. Volquez is very stingy with his home runs allowed. His rate per 200 innings is just 8.8 dingers. He'll face the team with the most home runs in the NL as the Phillies send up three players in double digits.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 03, 2008
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It may seem like there are only two games today, each involving a New York baseball team, but there are a couple of others worth mentioning as well.

Joba Chamberlain, of course, makes his transition to the starting rotation and does not draw an easy assignment. He'll face Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays in the Bronx. Halladay is pitching old school this season, with five complete games under his belt. Chamberlain will likely be limited to 70 pitches, so unless the Blue Jays do him a favor and swing at a lot of first pitches, he won't be around at the end. It will be interesting to see how Joba paces himself.

Meanwhile, in Boston, two teams are actually battling for first place in the AL East. The Rays send Matt Garza against the Pawtucket Shuttle, Justin Masterson. In two starts Masterson walked a few batters, but he's been nearly unhittable as opponents managed a .128 BA against him. Garza is doing a great job shutting down left-handed batters this season, allowing a .307 OBA and a .310 slugging percentage.

Despite their recent losing streak, the Royals are 7 1/2 games out of first place, and get a chance to gain as they play the White Sox tonight. It's a good matchup of young pitchers as Zach Greinke visits Gavin Floyd. Part of Greinke's success comes from allowing a .191 BA with runners in scoring position this season. Floyd, like much of the White Sox staff, cut down on his home runs allowed this season. He's pitched six fewer innings than last year, but allowed ten fewer home runs. Guillen and Williams will meet before the game to discuss the offense, and possibly Ozzie's job.

Dontrelle Willis make his first start in his home town as he faces the Athletics and Dana Eveland. Willis has not pitched much nor pitched well, walking eleven batters and striking out none in six innings of work. Eveland has been impressive for the A's, especially at home where his ERA is 2.73.

Finally, Pedro Martinez returns to the mound for the Mets, trying not to turn into Mike Hampton/Mark Prior/Carl Pavano. He'll face a fairly weak offense in the Giants, who are averaging 3.93 runs per game. Barry Zito tries to stop the Mets. He pitched okay in May, posting a 3.49 ERA but he still is issuing a ton of walks.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 02, 2008
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The Phillies just passed the Marlins, and Braves will try to do the same. Florida and Atlanta open a four game series tonight with the Braves trailing the Marlins by three games. Scott Olsen throws for Florida. He's done a good job of confining his worst pitching to bases empty situations. Eight of the ten home runs he's allowed came with no runners on. Jo-Jo Reyes takes the hill for Atlanta. Despite his high strikeout rate, Reyes is giving up a lot of hits. This is especially true at home where opponents are hitting .315 against him. Chipper Jones is 11 for 19 against the Marlins this season with three home runs.

The Cubs travel to San Diego to face the Padres. Carlos Zambrano faces Cha Seung Baek as Chicago tries to extend their winning streak to eight games. Carlos sees his ERA go down on the road, while the Cubs as a team score less and allow more away from Wrigley this year. Baek, recently acquired from the Mariners, hasn't pitched that well this season, but he has allowed a mere .147 BA with runners in scoring position.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2008
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The Astros surge came to an end with a four game losing streak, but today's matchup between Shaun Chacon and David Bush might get the Astros started again. While Shaun is only 2-0, he's kept the Astros in all but two games he started. He home runs allowed went way up in May as he allowed nine versus just three in April. Bush is a bit of an oddity this year. His strikeouts are way down, but his hits allowed aren't up. Even the timing of his against him isn't bad, as he allowed a .264 BA overall, but only .255 with runners in scoring position. His problems basically come down to a home run rate of 47.7 per 200 innings.

Texas can move into second place in the AL West with a win over Oakland this afternoon. Greg Smith brings a 2.84 ERA into the game, fifth in the American League. Smith has thrown exactly half his innings on the road, where his ERA is 3.41. Only one of his five home runs came away from Oakland, but he walks more batters on the road. He'll visit Scott Feldman, who has greatly improved his control since 2007.

Finally, the ESPN game features the Dodgers at the Mets with Hiroki Kuroda facing Johan Santana. The two are fairly evenly matched, Kuroda posting an ERA 0.12 runs better than Santana. John strikes out many more batters, but Kuroda gives up home runs at half the rate.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 31, 2008
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For the third day in a row, the White Sox and Rays present a good pitching matchup. Javier Vazquez takes on Scott Kazmir in the Scrabble game. Lefties are hitting .314 against Javier, and the Rays can put five lefties up against him. Kazmir has yet to allow a home run in his first 30 innings pitched.

Rickey Nolasco tries to put the Marlins back in first place as he faces Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Rickey is very good at keeping the running game in check as opponents are just 3 for 6 in stolen base opportunities. The Marlins might run on Hamels as he's allowed seven steals in eight attempts. Of course, they need to get on base and Hamels opposition OBA is a very low .271.

Finally, on the west coast the Blue Jays and the Angels send us Shaun Marcum against John Lackey. Marcum's been especially tough to hit in May, allowing a .142 BA and a .231 slugging percentage. Lackey's low ERA is due to allowing batters one hit in ten at bats with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 30, 2008
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The big NL East showdown starts tonight in Philadelphia as Florida comes to town. I hope Phish phans aren't conphused. The Marlins lead the Phillies by 1/2 game in the NL East, with Florida losing two in a row and Philadelphia on a four game winning streak. Mark Hendrickson opposes Brett Myers. Hendrickson has not gone deep in games his last four starts, averaging less than five innings. He's letting his pitching count climb early, putting pressure on the bullpen. Myers return to the rotation has been a rocky one. He's allowed 15 home runs this season, a rate of 45.9 per 200 innings. Of course, pitchers who allow home runs at that rate rarely get 200 innings. These are the top two home run hitting teams in the majors, so expect some fireworks.

The White Sox and Rays continue their battle of first place teams with Jose Contreras facing James Shields. While a lower home run rate contributed greatly to Contreras's success, he also lowered his walk rate as well. He's walking 2.1 per nine instead of his career average 3.2 per nine innings. Shields shows a huge home/road split this season, favoring his performances in Tampa Bay. He's allowed a 1.75 ERA at home, 6.04 on the road.

The Texas trails Oakland by 2 1/2 games as the Athletics come to town for a three game set. Young and Kinsler have hitting streaks of 14 and 13 games respectively, but they are weak streaks. Both are batting under .300, and Young's OBA during the streak is .292. The Rangers send Kevin Millwood against Justin Duchscherer. Duke is doing everything right for the A's this season, posting good strikeout numbers with a low walk and home run rate. Millwood takes advantage of the Texas offense at home to go 2-0 in Arlington despite a 5.40 ERA.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 29, 2008
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Randy Johnson

Randy Johnson
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The Blue Jays and Athletics finish up their low scoring series with another good pitching matchup as Jesse Litsch faces Dana Eveland. Litsch represents another good example of how a low walk rate can compensate for a high home run rate. Eight of the nine home runs he allowed came with the bases empty. Eveland comes from the opposite direction. His walks don't hurt him very much since he allows few hits and home runs.

We might see a playoff preview today as the White Sox travel to Tampa Bay for a four game series. Chicago holds a two game lead over Minnesota, and the Rays lead the Red Sox by three in the AFILC. Danks has a good ERA and a poor record. The White Sox lost two of his May starts by a score of 2-0. Edwin Jackson takes the hill for the Rays, and is another pitcher who has benefited from the power falloff in the American League. Last season his home run rate was 23.6 per 200 innings, this season that's down to 13.4.

Finally, the Giants go for a sweep of the Diamondbacks with two lefties on the mound, one an old man and the other pitching like one. Barry Zito picked up his first win his last time out. He's actually been effective in May, posting a 3.22 ERA despite a 1-2 record. He's still walking too many batters, but he's cut down the number of hits allowed. Johnson is hitting his stride. In his last two starts he's struck out 15 batters in 13 innings, walking one and allowing one run.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 28, 2008
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The White Sox and Indians play a business lunch for the rubber game of their three game set. Gavin Floyd takes the hill for Chicago with Jake Westbrook pitching for Cleveland. Both pitchers have done a tremendous job keeping batters off base this season, holding the opposition to a .291 OBA. Floyd holds their hits low, while Westbrook keeps the walks in check. That gives Floyd a bit of an advantage, as his walks don't advance runners as much as Westbrook's hits.

Wandy Rodriguez returns from the disabled list with a chance to move the Astros into sole possession of second place in the NL Central. He was pitching well before he went down, striking out more than a batter an inning for the first time in his career. He won't have an easy time as the Cardinals are sending out Adam Wainwright. All seven home runs allowed by Wainwright came as solo shots this season.

Finally, the pitching duel of the day goes to the RH factor, Roy Halladay versus Rich Harden in Oakland. Roy's upped his strikeouts this season, which brought down his batting average allowed and ERA. With eight strikeouts tonight, he'll be halfway to his 2007 total. Harden's been hard to score on at home, allowing three runs in three starts, all against Boston (one home game in Japan).

Speaking of Boston, keep you eye on that game as Manny Ramirez needs one home run to reach 500.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2008
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The Indians need a win, and the pitching matchup tonight should favor them over the White Sox. Aaron Laffey sports a 1.60 ERA to visiting pitcher Mark Buehrle's 4.82. Buehrle's been hit hard on the road this season, allowing a .336 BA and a .374 OBA. Laffey combines the ability to keep batters off base and in the ballpark with an opposition OPS of .452.

Ian Kennedy may be making his last start for a while. Joba Chamberlain should be ready to move into the rotation the next time through, and while I'd rather see him replace Mussina, Kennedy is having the poorer season. He'll take on Brian Burres, and lefties are giving the Yankees fits this year. New York's OBA against lefties is a poor .317 and their slugging percentage stands at .347.

The Marlins try to put another nail in the Mets coffin tonight, sending rookie Andrew Miller against big money veteran Johan Santana. Santana beat the Fish opening day, and he is pitching well, but not lights out. With power down in the AL this year, Johan might have been better off staying put. After an awful April, Miller has the third best ERA in the majors in May. He's only allowed one home run in the month.

The Astros are just one game behind the Cardinals for the Wild Card slot in the National League as they open a three game series with St. Louis. Mr. No-Decision, Shawn Chacon takes the Hill for Houston against Braden Looper. In ten starts this season, Chacon is 1-0 while the team went 5-5. He's posted a 2.77 ERA in two starts against St. Louis despite allowing ten walks in 13 innings. Looper is benefiting from good run support as the Cardinals scored five runs or more in all six of his wins. However, Braden did pitch well enough in two of the team's losses to take home a victory.

The Giants get a chance to defeat the leader as they take on Arizona in Phoenix. San Francisco sends their winner to the mound in the person of Tim Lincecum. Tim is near perfect on the road, sporting a 4-0 record an a 1.23 ERA. He'll go against Dan Haren, who is almost as good at home. He's undefeated there with a 5-0 record and a 2.27 ERA.

Finally, Daisuke Matsuzaka goes for his ninth win without a loss against the hapless Mariners. Opponents have not bee able to capitalize on Matsuzaka's high walk totals, and given the poor OBA of Seattle hitters (.309), they may not get Dice-K's walks very high tonight.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 26, 2008
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The Braves try to earn a split with the Diamondbacks this afternoon as Brandon Webb faces Jair Jurrjens. A win today for Webb would give him ten in two months, just the pace needed for 30 on the year. Webb's been especially effective on the road this season, posting a 1.85 ERA. His one loss, however, did come away from home. Jurrjens leads the majors in fewest home runs allowed per nine innings, with Webb among the leaders also.

The Dodgers and Cubs are fighting for division titles and meet for battle in the windy city. Chad Billingsley takes the hill for Los Angeles with a good ERA and a so-so record. Billingsley stands second to Edinson Volquez in K per 9 in the majors. He'll face Ryan Dempster. He's pitched about the same number of innings as last season, but gave up half the home runs.

Over their last 10 games the White Sox and Indians own opposite records, with Chicago 8-2 to Cleveland's 2-8. With the Indians 4 1/2 games back in the Central, this is an important series for them to get back in the race. Javier Vazquez takes on Paul Byrd. Like his teammate, Jose Contreras, Javier gained control of the long ball this year, allowing just four home runs so far. Byrd has the opposite problem, as he's allowed eleven home runs so far this year, more like his 2002 season with Kansas City.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 25, 2008
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Micah Owings faces Tom Glavine at Turner Field this afternoon. While Micah is known for his hitting skills, Tom was no slouch with the bat either, hitting over .200 a number of times in his career. On the pitching side, Glavine is having a rough May, posting a 5.01 ERA and walking 12 in 23 1/3 innings. Owings has allowed eight home runs this season, but only six have come with men on base.

Daniel Cabrera tries to salvage a win for Baltimore against the Rays as he faces James Shields. The big story with Cabrera is his long sought control came to light in May. He walked 21 batters in 37 innings in April, just three in 30 i1/3 innings in May. With that came a much lower ERA. James has been tough to hit in Tampa this year, allowing a .165 BA at home, .325 away.

Jon Lester takes the mound against the Oakland Athletics with a no-hitter under his belt. He may need that kind of stuff today as Boston managed just three runs in the first two games of this series. That puts first place in jeopardy as Tampa Bay stands just 1/2 game out. A big difference for Lester this season is home runs allowed. He's giving one up every eleven innings; last year it was one every 6 1/3. Joe Blanton takes the hill for Oakland. Blanton is a good pitcher who gets hurt by his low strikeout total. His .314 OBA allowed is good, but since the BA against him is .279, players getting on by hits tend to move runners more. On top of that, he's allowed 21 doubles, third most in the AL, which move runners even more. He's a low run pitcher, not a shutout pitcher, and with the A's scoring three runs or less five times when Joe starts, that the recipe for a poor record.

Dodgers fans are very excited about the debut of Clayton Kershaw. Born March 19, 1988, he beats Justin Upton by seven months as the youngest players in the majors. Kershaw struck out more batters than innings pitched at each level of baseball, and allowed just nine home runs in his 202 1/3 innings of minor league experience. His ERA at the lower levels was a combined 2.62. He'll face one of the many surprising players on the Cardinals, Todd Wellemeyer. Todd's had control issues in the past, but he managed to reduce his walks this season.

Finally, the ESPN game features John Lackey in his third start of the season facing Jose Contreras. You would never know Lackey was hurt as he allowed one run in seven innings in each of his first two starts. Contreras lowered his ERA by almost 2 1/2 runs versus 2007 by finding a way to keep the ball in the park. He's only allowed two home runs so far this season. His ground ball percentage is usually in the mid 40s, but he has it up to 57% this season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 24, 2008
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The Angels and White Sox continue their series in Chicago with Jered Weaver facing John Danks. There wasn't much offense last night as the two teams combined for seven hits. Weaver appears to have switched pitching ability with Ervin Santana this season, as he's great at home but is posting a 7.76 ERA on the road, mostly due to six home runs allowed in 26 2/3 innings. Danks allowed just three home runs all season, and only one in Chicago.

The Diamondbacks broke their losing streak last night, and try to make it two in a row against the Braves. Randy Johnson takes the hill for Arizona versus Jorge Campillo for the Braves. Used mostly as a reliever, Campillo made a strong start versus the Mets, shutting them out for six innings while striking out seven and walking none. Johnson isn't quite the Big Unit of old. The high number of strikeouts are still there, but he isn't fooling hitters as often as they now collect more hits than innings pitched against the tall left-hander.

The Texas Rangers are back in the hunt for the AL West crown, but face Cliff Lee this evening. Lee suffered his first loss and bad outing of the season against Cincinnati last time out. He still has a 9:1 K/BB and a .202 BA allowed. He'll face Scott Feldman, who is posting a 3.45 ERA since moving from the bullpen into the Texas rotation.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 23, 2008
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Texas tries to extend Cleveland's losing streak as they send Kason Gabbard against Fausto Carmona. Gabbard is having success this season despite walking more batters than he strikes out. His walks are low however, so he'll mostly get hurt if his defense doesn't play well behind him. Carmona is even more egregious in this regard. Despite walking 35 in 56 innings, he's posting a 2.25 ERA. I wonder when pitchers like Carmona and Matsuzaka will have their high walk totals catch up to them?

It's not a great team matchup, but Zack Greinke versus Roy Halladay should be a showcase of pitching talent. Greinke does give up home runs, but six of his seven allowed came with the bases empty. Halladay leads the AL in complete games. His four are twice James Shields second place level, and they're the only pitchers with more than one.

The Orioles visit the Tampa Bay "Wild Card" Rays trailing them 2 1/2 games in the standings. Baltimore sends Jeremy Guthrie against Matt Garza. Guthrie gave up six home runs in April, but only two in May indicates he has that under control. The Rays play like champions at home, winning 16 of 24 so far in 2008.

Doug Davis returns from his treatments for cancer to face Jo-Jo Reyes and the Atlanta Braves. Davis pitched a good game and a poor game before hitting the DL. Reyes is striking out many more batters per nine than he did in his brief visit to the majors last year.

The Angels and White Sox split four games last week in Anaheim, and they meet again tonight in a battle of first place teams. Joe Saunders was the one starter Chicago didn't see in that meeting. He's holding the opposition to a .286 OBA and a .324 slugging percentage. Gavin Floyd miss the series as well, and he's also holding batters to low averages, .297 OBA and .349 slugging.

Finally, a youthful Edinson Volquez takes on a rejuvenated Shawn Estes. I suspect Shawn is looking forward to beating the Reds, especially if it's a hot night. Volquez can bring the heat, however, and unlike most of the Reds staff, he doesn't wilt on the road.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 22, 2008
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Texas and Minnesota are both hanging in their division races and offer a fine pitching matchup today as Vicente Padilla faces Livan Hernandez. Padilla is posting an ERA 2 1/2 runs less than his 2007 mark, and already equalled his 2007 win total of six. A few more strikeouts have led to fewer hits per nine innings. Livan has bought into the Minnesota system of not walking batters, leading to fewer runners scoring on the home runs he allows.

The Braves go for the sweep of the Mets in Atlanta. It's been a drubbing so far as they've out-scored the Mets 23-7 over the first three games. New York sends Johan Santana to the mound to try to salvage the last game. While home runs have been a problem for Johan this season, it's mostly a Shea phenomenon. He's allowed six at home in 18 1/3 innings, five on the road in 41 2/3 innings. Tim Hudson is pitching in quantum states this season. He's either in the greatest pitcher in the league category, or the I can't get anyone out category. He sports a 3.06 ERA despite three poor starts, including his last one against Oakland in which he allowed five runs in five innings.

The Marlins go for a sweep of the Diamondbacks, sending Andrew Miller against Dan Haren. So if the Marlins sweep the best team in the league, defeating the best two pitchers on the team, does that mean they're for real? The Marlins have a chance as Haren pitched poorly in three road starts this season with a combined ERA of 5.09. Of course, Miller sports a 6.18 ERA. He's getting better, however, as he's only allowed four earned runs in his last three starts, good for a 1.93 ERA.

Finally, the White Sox go for the sweep of the Indians to try to further cement their lead in the AL Central. The matchup of Laffey and Buehrle would seem to favor the Indians left-hander, as his ERA is about four runs lower than Buehrle's. The White Sox hit lefties well, however. Their OBA and slugging percentage go up against southpaws as opposed to right-handers. The Indians produce a higher batting average against lefties, but with reduced power.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 21, 2008
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The Tampa Bay Rays go for a sweep of the Oakland Athletics as Andy Sonnanstine faces Dana Eveland this afternoon. Sonnanstine is undefeated away from the Trop, allowing just two home runs and three walks in twenty eight innings. Eveland is undefeated at home, posting a 0.92 ERA in Oakland. He's allowed just twelve hits in 19 1/3 innings. They've played two one-run games so far in this series, and this might well be another one.

Bartolo Colon

Batolo Colon
Photo: Icon SMI

Baltimore tries to extend the Yankees misery as undefeated pitchers Garrett Olson and Darrell Rasner meet in the battle of double double letters. Olson gives up almost nothing but singles. Of the 25 hits against him, three doubles are the only ones for extra bases. Rasner has yet to allow a hit with runners in scoring position.

Bartolo Colon makes his 2008 debut tonight, facing Kansas City at Fenway Park. The Red Sox gave him an easy opponent, as the Royals managed just one run in two games and hits in just one of them. Brett Tomko is pitching much better than his ERA, with low walks and low home runs allowed. That makes me wonder if the defense behind him has been shaky.

Finally, in the battle for the AL Central, the first place White Sox host the third place Indians. Chicago brings a six game winning streak into the game, while the Indians dropped four in a row. Paul Byrd takes the hill for the Tribe. He's only walking one batter every nine innings, but giving up two home runs over the same span. Javier Vazquez, Mr. Scrabble, greatly cut down on his home run rate. He is getting hit hard by lefties, however, who slug .491 against him.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 20, 2008
Games of the Day
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Alex Rodriguez returns to the Yankees lineup tonight as the Baltimore Orioles come into town. The Orioles sit in third place, 3 1/2 games ahead of the bottom dwelling Yankees. They'll send Daniel Cabrera against Mike Mussina. Both pitchers are showing improvement in their recent starts. Cabrera only walked three batters in his three May starts after issuing 21 in his six April starts. And he's done this while keeping his strikeouts high. Mussina allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, ever since he reduced the velocity of both his fast ball and changeup, increasing the difference between the two.

First place teams battle in southern Florida as the Diamondbacks visit the Marlins. Micah Owings gets the call for Arizona. Owings upped his K per 9 by over a strikeout this season, and he's seen his ERA go down half a run. Mark Hendrickson owns a low walk and strikeout rate, but he's kept his hits down as well. He has given up a .309 BA with runners in scoring position, however.

Winning pitchers on losing teams face off in Colorado as Tim Lincecum faces Aaron Cook. Tim's only loss of the season came against Aaron at the end of April. Lincecum allowed just three runs in seven innings, but Cook was better, letting in two unearned runs in the same span.

Finally, the good, young pitchers series continues in Oakland as Scott Kazmir takes on Greg Smith. After a rough first start off the DL, Kazmir hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts, giving up just six hits in twelve innings. Smith is another Athletics pitcher suffering from poor supporting offense. In his last four starts, the A's have scored a total of five runs.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Cubs lead the Central by two games over St. Louis and 2 1/2 over Houston as the Astros host Chicago tonight. This is a matchup between two hot power hitters, Lance Berkman and Alfonso Soriano. Since May 2nd, each played 16 games and each hit eight home runs. Soriano's driven in 21 to Berkman's 19, but Lance has scored 22 to Alfonso's 15. Seems backward for a leadoff hitter and a middle of the order slugger. Berkman is slugging 1.065 in that time and Soriano .891. The Cubs are 10-6 over that stretch, the Astros 12-4.

In a very tight AL Central, the Royals are in striking distance of first place despite standing one game under .500. They travel to Boston tonight as Luke Hochevar faces Jon Lester. In his first full season in the majors, Hochevar is posting a good ERA of 3.94 despite walking close to a batter every other inning. He's extremely tough to hit in the first three innings, with opponents batting .149 against him, 7 for 47. Lester is posting a similar ERA and similar walk numbers in about twice the innings. The walks probably favor the Red Sox tonight as Boston is ranked high in AL in walks drawn, KC fairly low.

On the west coast, a battle of good, young teams take place as Tampa Bay takes on Oakland. Both teams sit a close second in their division. James Shields takes the hill for the Rays. Shields has only allowed two home runs all year, and none in his last four starts. He'll face Joe Blanton, whose nickname this season should be "Bad Luck." Despite a 3.69 ERA, Joe sports a 2-6 record. The A's have scored 2 runs or less in games Joe pitched four times.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 18, 2008
Game of the Day
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One game stands out above all the others today as Cleveland sends Cliff Lee against Cincinnati's Edinson Volquez. Ohio hosts the AL and NL leaders in ERA, and the pair is also 1-2 in the majors.

Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez
Photo:Icon SMI

Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee
Photo:Icon SMI

Both pitchers are doing an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, each allowing just one home run. That's really impressive for Volquez, who plays half his games at Great American Ballpark. It's a home run haven, yet no one took Volquez deep there yet.

The strikeouts belong to Volquez. At 10.6 per nine innings, he leads the majors. He even does better during day games, and the team are playing an afternoon start. Lee is no slouch when it comes to K's, downing 7.4 per 9 without a ball in play.

Control, however, is Lee's forte. Cliff only walks a batter about once every 13 innings, by far the best in the majors. His K/BB currently stands at eleven. Walks are Volquez's biggest problem, issuing close to five free passes per nine innings. His strengths of keeping the ball in the park and not allowing many hits prevents most of those base runners from scoring. Opponents are hitting just .205 off Volquez, .176 off Lee. The Indians sport the lowest team batting average in the American League. While it's not the recipe for a no hitter, it sure raises the probability of one.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 17, 2008
Games of the Day
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The battle for Ohio continues today with Fausto Carmona facing Aaron Harang. You could call it a battle of aces since at the moment it's tough to identify a single ace on the Cleveland staff. Harang is suffering from poor run support this season, getting just 3.32 runs while he's in the game. Carmona is enjoy plenty from the Tribe, 5.92 for every nine innings he pitches.

Tim Hudson will run into some old friends today as he pitches against the Athletics. Hudson pitched well overall this season, but mixed in two bad outings. Otherwise, he might lead the league in ERA. This May, it's at a misery 0.76. He'll face Rich Harden, making his second start since his latest injury. He has one start in March, one in April and one in May. Two starts in one month might be a minor miracle.

Finally, the nominee for slugfest of the night goes to the battle between Mark Buehrle and Barry Zito by the bay. Both are expected to be aces on their teams, and both are struggling. Mark increase his strikeouts this season, but in an unusual occurrence, increased his hits allowed as well. Zito brought his ERA down over his last two starts, but no run support by the Giants means he's still hasn't recorded a win. He is back to striking out more than he walks, however.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Pittsburgh Pirates went 8-2 over their last ten games and are one of the hottest teams in the majors. They get a chance to gain on the division leader in the one non-interleague series this weekend as they play the Cubs. It's looking like a high scoring affair this afternoon as Tom Gorzelanny takes on Sean Gallagher. Both sport ERAs over 5.00. Sean hasn't pitched that much, but Tom has walked more batters than he's struck out, and almost one walk per inning.

Both the Yankees and Mets are off to disappointing starts as they square off in the Bronx. The Bombers find themselves in last place, while the Mets are only one game above .500. After lefty Scott Kazmir gave them trouble yesterday, the Yankees get to face Johan Santana. The Mets ace pitched very well during the regular season against the Yankees in his career, posting a 2.66 ERA. Rasner's been a bit of a savior so far, only allowing one walk in his first two starts.

Everyone will have an "A" on his cap tonight as the Braves host the Athletics. It's a battle of young pitchers acquired for veterans with Dana Eveland taking the hill against Jair Jurrjens. Eveland keeps the ball in the park as he's allowed just two home runs this season. Both of those came on the road, however, where his ERA is 4.88. Jurrjens owns the same strength, allowing just one long ball all season. His only one came at home, but his ERA in Atlanta stands at 1.96.

Somehow, I feel the need to include a pitching matchup between Shawn Chacon and Sidney Ponson in games of the day. It just proves that a pitching career is never really finished.

Finally, the all LA series features Hiroki Kuroda facing Joe Saunders. Kuroda's been very tough against the top of the order, allowing an .077 batting average in the first inning. Saunders is giving up fewer hits this season, bringing down his ERA. His line drive percentage is down to 13.5% from 20.7% last season. Line drives tend to turn into hits, so he's found some way to prevent batters from squaring up the ball.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 15, 2008
Games of the Day
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It's a good afternoon to play hooky from work as nine games take place under the sun. Cleveland Indians starters hold a 43 1/3 inning scoreless streak as Aaron Laffey takes the hill against the Oakland Athletics. C.C. Sabathia was the last starter to allow a run, in the fifth inning against Toronto on May 9th. Laffey holds a 1.83 ERA this season, walking just four batters in 19 2/3 innings. He'll face one of the young stars of the Oakland rotation, Greg Smith. The A's picked up another high strikeout, low walk pitcher and it's paying off for them in Smith.

Greg Maddux returns to Chicago with 350 wins under his belt to face Ryan Dempster. The old man is posting the same strikeout and walk rates as in 2007, with fewer hits allowed. Dempster made a fantastic transition from bullpen to rotation, pitching better as a stater than he ever did for Florida or Cincinnati.

Ian Kennedy's minor league stint was a short one as he returns to the Yankees to face Scott Kazmir. Kennedy allowed just one hit in 7 1/3 inning start at Scranton, showing that the demotion was the kick in the pants he needed to get his act together. The Yankees don't give him an easy job, however, as he faces the first place Rays. Scott Kazmir signed a new contract yesterday, keeping him on the Rays through at least 2011. Since 2006, he's struck out more batters than innings pitched, and the Rays correctly see the value in locking in that skill.

The best pure pitching matchup of the day takes place in Arizona where Aaron Cook and Brandon Webb. Not only is Webb undefeated, he's won each of his eight starts. Cook, however, is 6-1 with a better ERA than Webb. Both do a great job of keeping the ball in the park, Webb allowing two home runs, Cook just three.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Red Sox and Orioles continue their series this afternoon with Jon Lester facing Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera is coming off two nice starts in which he combined to walk three batters in 16 1/3 innings. The selective Red Sox hitters will be a good test of his new control. The Red Sox should be concerned with Lester's fall off in strikeouts. Last season he struck out 50 in 63 innings. This season he has just 29 in 51 innings, with no decrease in walks.

Jake Peavy takes on Ted Lilly as the Padres visit the Cubs. Peavy hasn't lost a step from last season, with his ERA a few points lower than in 2007. Last season, however, he was equally good home and away. In 2008 he's allowed a 4.58 ERA on the road. Lilly, too, isn't pitching that differently from last year despite a higher ERA. It's luck turning from good to bad. In 2007, he allowed a .220 batting average with runners in scoring position. This year, .300.

Finally, John Lackey returns to the Angels rotation tonight. LAnaheim weathered his injury well, their starters posting a 4.18 ERA in his absence, 7th in the AL. His first test will be against Jose Contreras of the White Sox. Jose is having his best year keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs so far this season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2008
Games of the Day
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Two pitchers doing better than expected take the mound in Cincinnati as Mark Hendrickson faces Edinson Volquez. I scoffed when Hendrickson got the opening day nod for the Marlins, but he's now 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA. He's not doing things that differently in terms of strikeouts and walks, which suggests he may have a better defense behind him or the balls put in play against him are easier to field. Since his line drive percentage is down to 16.5% from 23% last year, it looks like the latter. Volquez upped his strikeouts, and despite playing half his games at GAB allowed only one home run so far this season.

The may be some fireworks in Texas tonight as Felix Hernandez and Kason Gabbard square off in Texas. Five days ago, Felix hit two Texas batters. When Gabbard threw one high over the plate to Richie Sexson, the big first baseman charged the mound and threw his helmet into Gabbard's back. Richie will continue serving his suspension tonight. With luck, they'll stick to pitching well. Hernandez is coming off two poor starts in which he allowed 10 runs in 10 2/3 innings. Gabbard continues to test the limits of how few strikeouts a pitcher can accumulate and still have a sub-2.00 ERA. He's walked 13 and struck out nine in 24 1/3 innings, but with only four extra base hits against him, those free passes haven't led to many runs.

Two years ago, Justin Verlander was the up and coming star and Zack Greinke was trying to get his head on straight. Now, Verlander is struggling to keep runs off the scoreboard and Greinke is fulfilling his potential. Zack's main weakness is the long ball, but four of his five home runs allowed came with the bases empty. Verlander has seen his K per 9 drop by over one this season from his career average. Opponents are putting more balls in play, and more are finding the fences at inopportune times as four of his seven homers allowed came with men on base.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 12, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Yankees open a four game series in Tampa Bay, trailing the Rays by 2 1/2 games in the AL East. At 13-7, the Rays are tied with the Twins for the second best home record in the American League. Andy Pettitte faces Matt Garza. Andy's pitched well on the road this season, posting a 2.81 ERA. He's kept the ball in the park away from Yankee Stadium, allowing just two home runs, versus for four in the Bronx (in fewer innings). Garza pitched well since returning from his injury, with a 3.06 ERA in three games. He's not striking out batters, however, just six in his last 17 2/3 innings.

Cliff Lee tries to extend his incredible start against the Blue Jays in the second game of a double header tonight. Lee has won each of his starts, posting a miserly 0.81 ERA. with no walks in his last game, Lee now owns a K/BB of 19.5. He'll face a very good pitcher in Shaun Marcum. While not posting the ultra-low walk rate of Lee, Shaun does fine walking a batter every three innings.

The first place Cubs host the struggling Padres as Carlos Zambrano takes on Randy Wolf. Carlos is off to a great start, trading fewer walks for fewer strikeouts, and so far it's working. Wolf may face a tough game tonight, as the Cubs hit lefties well, accumulating a .285 team batting average against southpaws.

Finally, a game of struggling aces pits Roy Oswalt against Barry Zito in San Francisco. Oswalt's strikeouts and walks are fine, it's just that balls are sailing out of the park against him. He's allowed eleven home runs so far this season; his career high is 18. Zito is perfectly awful, going 0-7 in his seven starts. The sign of hope in his last start after missing a turn in the rotation was that he struck out five and walked two. Despite that, he still has walked more than he struck out this season.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 11, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Florida Marlins go for a sweep of the Washington Nationals and their seventh win in a row this afternoon as Scott Olsen faces Shawn Hill. Olsen is 1/3 of an inning short of averaging seven per start. He's already 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA against the Nationals. A big reason for the Marlins early success is a 7-1 record against Washington. They're 15-13 against the rest of the league. Opponents have recorded 46 at bats against Hill at home and on the road this season, with a .217 BA in Washington and a .348 BA away.

Andy Sonnanstine

Andy Sonnanstine shows off his leg kick.
Photo: Icon SMI

With a win over the Angels today, the Tampa Bay Rays move into the wild card slot in the American League. That's no mean feat for a team that's basically never been in contention. Andy Sonnanstine gets the ball for the Rays. He's won his last four starts, posting a 2.45 ERA without allowing a home run. He'll take on the undefeated Ervin Santana. Magic continues to be tough with men in scoring position, allowing a mere .107 BA on three hits in the situation.

Randy Johnson and Carlos Zambrano square off at Wrigley field this afternoon. The Big Unit still strikes out a ton of batters, but he's been hurt by three of his four home runs allowed coming with men on base. Zambrano cut his walk rate in half this season and is on his way to the lowest ERA of his career.

The pitching matchup of the afternoon amazingly takes place in Texas where Rich Harden returns from the disabled list to face the rejuvenated Sidney Ponson. Harden held opponents to one run in eleven innings before he went down with a shoulder strain. Ponson is keeping the ball in the park. He allowed seven home runs in 37 2/3 innings for Minnesota last season, but in 2008 opponents are yet to take him deep in his 20 1/3 innings pitched.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 10, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Mets play a split admission double header to make up for last night's rain out. Those going out to game one get to see Johan Santana face Matt Belisle. Belisle may be one of those pitchers with too much control. He's given up 25 hits in 14 1/3 innings, but just two walks. I guess his pitchers are so hittable that batters have no reason to go deep in the count. It's tough to score against Santana unless a batter hits a home run, as nine of the 16 runs scored against Johan came on the long ball.

Ben Sheets

Ben Sheets
Photo: Icon SMI

Ben Sheets makes his third start since returning from an injury, and the first two didn't go that well. He walked a ton of batters in the first, gave up lots of hits in the second, and both resulted in the opposition scoring four runs against the Brewers' ace. Joel Pineiro pitches for St. Louis, and his 4.33 ERA looks high for someone with so few walks and home runs allowed. He's allowed a .409 batting average with runners in scoring position so far this season.

There will be a nice contrast in styles on display in San Francisco as Tim Lincecum hosts Jamie Moyer. Young vs. old, fast vs, slow, right vs. left. Lincecum is not unhittable, as he .261 BA against shows. It's just tough to hit him hard, as his .350 slugging against shows. Moyer's usefulness may be at an end. The Phillies need to score lots of runs to support his 4.15 ERA. But he's no longer an innings eater, as Jamie isn't averaging six innings a game.

Scott Kazmir

Scott Kazmir
Photo: Icon SMI

Scott Kazmir tries to keep the Rays winning streak alive versus Joe Saunders and the Angels tonight. Kazmir pitched poorly in his first start back from rehab, allowing nine base runners in just four innings. Saunders was just what the Angels needed to weather their pitching injuries. His ability to keep batters off base allows him to compensate for a .303 BA allowed with runners in scoring position.

Finally, Greg Maddux goes for win 350 again. He's on long rest, having pitched six days ago. He's at home, in a park that doesn't allow much offense. He's pitching against a slumping Rockies team, although there are signs of them hitting better. He's facing Ubaldo Jimenez, who sports a 5.82 ERA and pitches worse away from Coors. The stars should be aligned for Greg tonight.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 09, 2008
Games of the Day
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A few games today feature a good pitcher facing a good pitcher having a bad year. The first takes place this afternoon in Chicago where Dan Haren visits Ted Lilly. Haren is living up to his trade, positing an ERA just 0.05 higher than his mark for Oakland last season. Ted Lilly's ERA soared by 2.00 runs from his 2007 level, mostly due to a lack of control leading to more hits against him.

Toronto travels to Cleveland as Roy Halladay takes on C.C. Sabathia. With four complete games this season, Roy is on his way to setting a new career high (9). He's the king of complete games in the aughties with 33. After making two good starts in a row, Sabathia was roughed up a bit by Kansas City his last time out. He maintained his good control, however, walking just one.

There's a battle of first place teams in Minnesota as the Red Sox challenge the Twins. Both teams are hot, with the Red Sox winning eight of their last ten and the Twins seven in that span. Boston's offense is starting to kick into gear as they've scored 51 runs in their last seven games. The Twins scoring isn't quite as consistent, but they have hit double digits in runs in three of their last ten games.

The best pitching matchup of the day takes place in San Diego as Aaron Cook takes on Jake Peavy. Both sport ERAs in the low 2.00s. Cook is doing a good job of keeping the bases empty, allowing a .281 OBA with none on. That has led to all three home runs against him resulting in one run. Peavy's given up the long ball a little more frequently this season, although four of the five came on the road.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2008
Games of the Day
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It's a good day to take a long lunch as there are plenty of afternoon baseball games happening. The Braves go for a sweep of the Padres as Wilfredo Ledezma takes on Jo-Jo Reyes. With the injuries to the rotation, Reyes is getting a second look in Atlanta after control problems in 2007. Ledezma gets a rare start. He sports a low ERA this season despite a high number of walks and hits allowed. The may turn out to be a high scoring game, which would be good for Chipper Jones keeping his batting average above .400.

Brandon Webb goes for his eighth win in eight starts as he faces Brett Myers and the Phillies. Webb's ERA is three times higher at Chase Field than on the road, but he gets more offensive support as well. Myers tendency to give up home runs in his career became even more exaggerated this season as he's allowed eleven in 44 innings. That would be 50 over a 200 inning season. Look for some long balls today from the Diamondbacks hitters.

A pair of struggling aces take the mound in the Detroit as Josh Beckett visits Justin Verlander. Beckett, in terms of hits, walks, home runs and strikeouts isn't doing a lot that's different from 2007. One tiny difference is that last season, only four of his 17 home runs allowed came with men on base. This season two of his four came with men on. Verlander's walk rate jumped this year, leading to the hits he allows doing more damage.

Finally, Kason Gabbard comes off the disabled list to take on Seattle's Felix Hernandez. The Rangers moved past the Mariners last night with a 2-0 win. Gabbard pitched well before the injury, although he's walked nine and struck out just eight. Felix is coming off a ten K game, and struck out at least seven in each of this last four starts.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 07, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Cubs and Reds get us started with an early afternoon game featuring Jon Lieber and Edinson Volquez. Lieber makes his first start of the season after nine effective relief outings. He's only walked two batters in 19 1/3 innings pitched. Volquez cools the fans at GAB by inducing a large number of strikeouts. He's currently second in the NL with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Red Sox try to make it three in a row at Comerica as two young starters take the hill for Boston and Detroit. Buchholz tries to make it four good starts in a row. He's only allowed 13 hits in his last 19 1/3 innings. Armando Galarraga, making his fifth start of the season, has only allowed 13 hits in his 24 innings. He's also cut down his walks by 1/3 vs. his cup of coffee in 2007.

The premier matchup, however, takes place in New York where the undefeated battle. Cliff Lee brings a 5-0 record against 6-0 Chien-Ming Wang. Lee is pitching like Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux all rolled into one. His K/BB is 16 to 1. He's allowed 19 hits in 37 2/3 innings. He's averaging over seven innings a start. Only one ball left the park against him. Right now, he's the perfect pitcher.

Wang is pitching the best ball of his career as well. His 6.4 K per 9 is well above his 4.0 career average. He struck out nine Indians in their first meeting of the season, holding the Tribe to four hits and no runs over seven innings.

Enjoy!


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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 06, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Yankees and Indians face off in the Bronx with Fausto Carmona taking on Andy Pettitte. Fausto 2.60 ERA is looking very vulnerable to me. He's walked 26 batters and struck out just 13 so far this season. I don't think that kind of ratio is sustainable long term. With all the innings he threw last season, he's a candidate for a break down in 2008, and we may be seeing the start of that. Yankee Stadium is supposed to help left-handed pitchers, but Andy Pettitte pitched poorly in his first two starts of 2008 at home. He's allowed three homers in 11 innings at home, just two homers in 25 2/3 innings on the road.

In Atlanta, Young visits a young pitcher as Chris Young takes the hill against Jair Jurrjens. Atlanta's righty pitches well against left-handed hitters, allowing a batting line of .181/.253/.250. The pitching Chris Young is keeping opposition batting averages low (.213) with his strikeouts, but his walks are allowing a decent OBA (.324).

There's a nice matchup of aces in Cincinnati as Carlos Zambrano takes on Aaron Harang. Both sport ERAs under 3.00, but Zambrano is 4-1 while Harang sites 1-4. A big difference in the two is that Harang has a .100 point higher BA allowed with runners in scoring position than Zambrano While half his batters faced have been lefties, Carlos has yet to allowed a home run to a batter from that side.

The Twins lead the White Sox by two games in the AL Central as the two team start battle in Chicago. Youngsters take the hill as Nick Blackburn hurls against Gavin Floyd. With few strikeouts, Blackburn is dependent on his defense, and so far ball in play have gotten through to the tune of a .315 BA allowed. Floyd also strikes out a batter about every other inning, but the White Sox defense held opponents to just a .176 BA behind him.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 05, 2008
Games of the Day
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The Red Sox travel to Detroit to face a new Tigers lineup and Jeremy Bonderman. It's tough to believe Bonderman is just 25 years old. He's in his sixth season with the Tigers, and when I look at this stats I wonder if he'll ever be a great pitcher. He has good strikeout, walk and home run numbers; good, not great. Still, they seem to be better than his 4.74 career ERA. It's tough to see any reasons in his career splits. Maybe it's just a career of bad luck.

Daisuke Matsuzaka challenges the Tigers tonight. He seems to have learned from his 2007 season, and is doing a better job of holding down his hits allowed. He's starting to look like the great pitcher the Red Sox thought they purchased.

Dustin McGowan tries to make Ozzie Guillen's head explode as the Blue Jays go for a sweep of the White Sox. The Jays starters are on quite a role with eight consecutive quality starts. Over that time, they posted a 1.22 ERA. McGowan faces Javier Vazquez, who finally found a way to keep the ball in the park. He's allowed just one home run this season. It's not clear why, as his groundball percentage is way down this season.

The Phillies travel to the land of the rising bird to face Max Scherzer in his first major league start. He's rocketed through the minors, with an impressive K per 9 of 11.4. He does tend to walk batters. He'll face the old man of the hill, Jamie Moyer. It's hard to believe that Moyer's ERA is just 4.50 with the opposition slugging .526 against him. Most of those extra base hits came with the bases empty, however.

Enjoy!

Correction: Corrected Dustin McGowan's name.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 04, 2008
Games of the Day
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Greg Maddux makes his fourth attempt at 350 wins. His first attempt he took one for the team after a marathon 22 inning game. His last two attempts, he pitched well enough to win but first his offense, then his bullpen let him down. He'll face a Florida Marlins team that's starting to slide. They've lost four of their last five games, allowing 36 runs. Maddux faces former Tiger Andrew Miller. Miller looked like he made some progress in his penultimate start, but he still gave up nine hits in five innings. He hasn't struck out a batter in his last two appearances.

Roy Halladay tries to break a rare three game losing streak against the White Sox this afternoon. Rare in that he completed all three games:

Their losing pitcher in the 19th straight loss was Mickey Lolich. It marked his seventh straight start in which he did both of these things: He threw a complete game, and he lost.

That is the longest such streak of complete-game losses in at least the last half-century, according to baseball-reference.com.

Toronto's Roy Halladay has pitched a complete-game loss in each of his last three starts. If he does so again today against the White Sox, he'll become the first pitcher in 28 years to have a complete-game loss in four straight starts.

The last pitcher to incur this fate was Oakland's Rick Langford, who had six straight complete-game losses in 1980. They came early in a streak in which manager Billy Martin abused Langford by having him throw 22 straight complete games (by far the longest such streak in the last half-century). Langford's career faded soon thereafter.

As you can see, Halladay pitched very well over the three games, not allowing a home run and only one walk a game. Jose Contreras takes the hill for Chicago. He's doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs so far. That's tough when half the games are at the White Sox home park.

Scott Kazmir makes his 2008 debut as he tries to prevent a Red Sox sweep of the Rays. He'll face fellow lefty Jon Lester. Lester has walked more than he struck out this season, but he's coming off a great start in which he shutout the Blue Jays for eight innings. The Rays managed a 4.04 team ERA, good for sixth in the AL without Kazmir in the rotation. I suspect it will get even better now.

The matchup of the day takes place in Philadelphia where Cole Hamels hosts the Giants Tim Lincecum. Hamels pitches at his best at home this season, posting a 2.15 ERA and allowing just two home runs in 29 1/3 innings. Lincecum allowed just one round tripper all season. Tim's overall batting against numbers aren't that impressive (.265 BA, .345 OBA), but he's allowed a mere .111 BA with men in scoring position. It's the bend, don't break strategy.

Two former AL aces battle in the desert later today as Johan Santana faces Dan Haren. Dan faced the Mets twice in interleague play and posted very good numbers in a small sample size. This is Santana's first crack at the snakes.

Finally, the Cubs and Cardinals play the rubber game of their series with first place in the NL Central on the line. Jason Marquis and Todd Wellemeyer do battle. Last season, the former Cardinal Marquis showed St. Louis they were wrong to let him go, compiling a 3-1 record and a 3.60 ERA against them. Welllemeyer's strikeouts and walks indicate he should be better than a 4.14 ERA, but his six home runs allowed negate that somewhat.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 03, 2008
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There are no outstanding pitching matchups today, although there are outstanding pitchers. Felix Hernandez leads off the day as he takes on the Yankees in the Bronx. Despite a 2.22 ERA, Hernandez is just 2-1 in six starts. Part of that is poor bullpen support. In the nine innings they've pitched in Felix's starts, they've allowed seven runs, fifteen hits and six walks.

Brandon Webb goes for his seventh win of the season, facing the Mets in Arizona. To win 30 games in this era, a pitcher needs to win every start he makes, and so far Webb accomplished that. He's pitched out of tight situations; batters are 0 for 5 against him with the bases loaded with three strikeouts, and are hitting just .088 with men in scoring position.

James Shields continues to improve on his 2007 season by lowering his home runs allowed. Only twice has he served up gopher balls this season. He will once again duel Josh Beckett. They faced each other in their last starts, with Shields walking away with a 3-0, complete game victory. A win moves them back ahead of the Red Sox for first place in the AL East.

Finally, Jake Peavy faces Florida in San Diego. In four starts at PETCO this season, Peavy allowed just three runs for an 0.87 ERA. He's averaging just a hair over three hits per start in those games. The Marlins have given Peavy some trouble in his seven starts against them. His record is just 3-4, despite an 11.6 K per 9 mark. He pitched well enough to win three of the four losses.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 02, 2008
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Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson
Photo: Icon SMI

Four percentage points separate the Rays and the Red Sox as Tampa Bay opens up a four game series in Boston to decide which team will remain in first place. Edwin Jackson faces Clay Buchholz in game one tonight. Jackson came up at a young age, and now at 24 he's finally finding his way. He still walks too many people, but he's cut down on home runs and with the defense lowering his hits allowed, Jackson is posting a good ERA. He's an object lesson for all who are worried about their young pitchers turning out well. Buchholz is one of those youngsters off to a rough start. His last two appearances, however, are what Boston fans expect as he struck out 15 in 14 innings pitched while walking four.

The Mariners and Yankees offer a great matchup of undefeated pitchers as Erik Bedard faces Chien-Ming Wang. Erik pitched well at the stadium in his career, posting a 3.45 ERA. He only has a 1-1 record to show for it, however. Wang is baffling left-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .299 slugging percentage. They do, however, have the only home run hit off the Yankees ace.

Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez
Photo: Icon SMI

Cincinnati travels to Atlanta and sends rising star Edinson Volquez against Tim Hudson. Volquez is wild but tough to hit as he's allowed 20 hits and 16 walks in 29 1/3 innings. Hudson is causing some worries as in two of his last three starts he lasted just three innings while allowing four runs.

The Cubs trail the Cardinals by 1/2 game as Chicago travels to St. Louis. Rich Hill takes the hill versus ace Adam Wainwright. Hill posted a K/BB of nearly 3.0 in 2007, but in 2008 he's even at 14/14. That's never a good sign for a pitcher. The trick to getting to Wainwright is to fill your lineup with lefties. Those batters are slugging .625 against the Cardinals right hander. The Cubs, however, only have three position players right now who bat left-handed.

Finally, the Mets and Diamondbacks do battle in Phoenix as John Maine takes on slugger Micah Owings. The two own similar ERAs but Owings took home two more wins. Maine's had bad luck on the road so far, posting a 5.40 ERA away from the friendly confines of Shea Stadium. Owings is glad he doesn't have to face himself as a batter. He's hitting .421, his opponents just .195.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 01, 2008
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The Royals offense came to life against Texas, scoring nine runs in each of the first two games of the series. Unfortunately, they only split those games as Texas scored eleven last night. Zack Grienke tries to bring the Texas hitters under control as he goes for his fourth win of the season. It's been a bend, don't break year for Zack as he's allowed a .304 batting average with the bases empty but just .091 with runners in scoring position. He'll face Sidney Ponson, who was the victim of poor fielding in his first start, allowing five runs, four unearned.

As Milwaukee comes off a Wednesday night pounding to play a Thursday afternoon game, they'll depend on Yovani Gallardo to shut down the Cubs run machine. The only run against Gallardo in his two starts came on a solo home run. He takes on Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. Carlos is off to a much better start than last April. He gave up the same number of hits, but did it over six more innings. On top of that, he cut his walks by ten.

Finally, the Blue Jays and Red Sox try to find some offense as A.J. Burnett pitches against Tim Wakefield. Burnett sports a 6.07 ERA and Wakefield comes in at 4.07. A .302 BA allowed and a .382 OBA allowed by Burnett matches the Red Sox strengths. Wakefield is wild, walking seventeen in twenty nine innings. We'll see how good these pitchers are today at leaving runners on base.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2008
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Cliff Lee tries to end his incredible April 5-0 as he faces the Seattle Mariners. He's only allowed one earned run in the month. His strikeout to walk ratio is 14.5 to 1. His stats are a sabermetric marvel.

The Brewers can tie the Cubs with a win tonight as Jeff Suppan takes on Ryan Dempster. Suppan is not striking out many batters this season, eleven in 31 1/3 innings. I wouldn't want too many Cubs putting the ball in play, as they are hitting .281 as a team. Dempster is walking a high number of batters, about one every other inning. He's not getting hit, however, and with only two home runs allowed, the walks haven't cost him. So far, the move from the pen to the rotation is working well.

The Athletics and Angels play game three of their four game series with first place on the line once more. Dana Eveland and Ervin Santana are both off to good starts. The Magic is back for Santana as he's cut down his hits allowed and with it his home run rate. Eveland is starting out as a reverse lefty. Think Tom Glavine at his best, the type of left-hander that does better against righties than lefties. He should do well against the Angels who put few lefties in the lineup.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 28, 2008
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The Pirates travel to New York as aces Ian Snell and Johan Santana do battle at Shea Stadium. Snell has pitched much better than his 4.45 ERA. His strikeouts, walks and home run allowed (just one) indicate he should be having a pretty good season. His ERA is 1.42 runs higher than his FIP, possibly indicating bad luck. Batters are hitting a high percentage of line drives off him, and his defense isn't turning balls into outs very well. He also has an extremely strange platoon split. A right-handed pitcher, lefties are hitting .194 against him, righties .403 in equal numbers of at bats.

Johan Santana is doing pretty much what's expected from the ace. He's recorded lots of strikeouts, few walks and fewer hits than innings pitched. In 2007, however, home runs hit off the lefty rose, and that rate doesn't appear to be a fluke as Santana continues on pace to allowed about 30 home runs in 200 innings.

On the west coast, the battle for first place in the AL West commences as the Oakland Athletics open a four game series with the Angels in Anaheim. The series kicks off tonight with Chad Gaudin facing Jon Garland. It was the Angels who were supposed to dominate in pitching, but right now the Athletics own the lowest ERA in the American League by 0.4 runs. The Oakland staff has done a great job of keeping their walks and home runs low, and Gaudin is a good example of that. He walks one batter every four innings and allows a home run every twelve innings.

Garland is the victim of a strikeout rate that fell off a cliff. He's only struck out four batters in 30 1/3 innings this season,