Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 30, 2004
Deja Vu All Over Again
Permalink

I'm just wondering how many Red Sox fans flashed back to Bill Buckner when the ball went by Ortiz for two runs?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 PM | Defense | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Silly Things
Permalink

Jon Leicester was pitching in relief for the Cubs today. I can't hear the announcers say his name without thinking of this Monty Python sketch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:06 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Vincent on Failure
Permalink

Matt Barr sends this link to Fay Vincent's commencement address at Canisius College. He speaks of learning from failure, and has this to say about his time as commissioner:


Failure of Persuasion: Sadly, my tenure as baseball commissioner ended in failure. I failed because I couldn’t persuade the owners or the players to avoid war. The owners were determined to try to break the union and the players union refused to recognize its role in helping to build and improve the institution of baseball.

My failure resulted, in part, in a five-year series of battles that produced very little change. That warfare hurt the game in ways that have harmed all baseball constituents.

And I am sorry, very much so, that I failed. I wish I had possessed the skills that were necessary to avoid what took place.

And so, while people tend to be gentle with me on the topic, the fact is I failed. But I am consoled that the fans have stuck with me and most have thanked me for what I tried to do. If I failed, at least I tried to do what I thought was right.


We'd be so much better off if he had succeeded. He also quotes the shortest commencement speech of all time:

And so I end with a reference to my great hero, Mr. Churchill who at the very end of his life was honored at Oxford by being asked to speak at the commencement there. And he gave the shortest speech of his life and, I believe, the shortest commencement speech ever.

After he was praised effusively in the introduction and after the thunderous applause had finally dimmed, he stood silently before the expectant audience. He stood a long time, not saying a word. The audience waited, expectantly for the supreme orator of our age to begin. And it waited. And it waited.

Finally, in that voice that continues to resonate down to our generation, he bellowed out,
“Never, Never, Never, Never, Never …give up.” And he sat down!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Commissioner | TrackBack (0)
St. Louis Swept
Permalink

The Pirates win another in the bottom of the ninth, this time on three singles with 2 out. It was a poorly pitched game for the Bucs, as four pitches combined to allow 10 hits and 7 walks. The 6-5 loss once again gives the rest of the NL Central a chance to gain on the Cardinals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:23 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Lost in the Sun, Lost for a Run
Permalink

Craig Biggio popped up the first pitch from Matt Clement, but Aramis Ramirez lost the ball in the sun and let it drop in foul territory. Biggo took the next pitch into the stands for a HR. Ramirez was not given an error on the dropped fly, so it will be an earned run against Clement.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:27 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)
Simon Sez, "Take a Pitch"
Permalink

Randall Simon just drew his 11th walk of the year. The announcers were commenting that since coming back from his rehab, Randall has been more selective at the plate. Before the injury, Simon drew 2 walks in in 32 AB. Since, he's draw 9 walks in 65 AB. In 410 AB last year, Simon only drew 16 walks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM | Players | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

The the battle of the Clems on the north side of Chicago today as Roger Clemens battles Matt Clement. Both have exellent ERAs, although Roger has been slipping of late, posting a 5.60 ERA over his last three starts. With Randy Johnson reaching 4000 K last night, similar comments apply to Roger's chances of getting to 5000 K. As long as his K/9 remains around 9, he's going to be valuable to some team. In Roger's case, I'm betting that as long as he can stay close to home, he'll continue to pitch.

Freddy Garcia makes his White Sox debut tonight as he'll face Brad Radke in Minnesota. The two teams are separated in the standings by 1/1000th of a percentage point. With a better offense behind him, Garcia should be able to turn his 3.20 ERA into a winning record. If Radke doesn't get better support soon, he'll continue to be Mr. No Decision (3.22 ERA, seven decisions in 16 starts).

Finally, Kenny Rogers tries to become the first 11 game winner in the AL (and in the majors if Clemens doesn't win) against the Mariners tonight. Rogers K, BB and HR numbers aren't all that different from last year, but he's giving up fewer hits. It's hard to believe that Minnesota last year was a worse defensive team than Texas this year, but in 2004, Texas has a higher DER than the Twins.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
4000 Club
Permalink

Congratulations to Randy Johnson on his 4000th strikeout! Johnson is 40 years old and still is striking out batters at a prodigious rate, better than 9 per 9 innings. In other words, the end of his career is not in sight. While I doubt he'd last long enough to catch Ryan, I don't think 5000 career strikeouts is out of the question.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 AM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2004
It's 52
Permalink

The Chicago White Sox continue to have Carlos Silva's number. He allowed six runs in 8 2/3 innings tonight, bringing his season total against the White Sox to 16 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings. Buehrle strikes out seven and walks none over 8 innings to earn the 6-2 victory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
We Don't Need No Stinking Thome
Permalink

The Phillies scored 17 runs on 17 hits tonight, but none of those hits came from super slugger Jim Thome. Jim was the only starter without a hit tonight; even Eric Milton managed a single and 2 RBI. Seven Phillies had 2 or more RBI tonight, while Bell and Michaels each scored three runs.

Milton will get the win despite allowing seven runs in five innings. The Phillies bullpen was great, however, allowing just 1 hit over four innings while walking none. They keep pace with Florida, who beat Atlanta 5-4.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Low Scoring Losses
Permalink

After tearing up the AL West and NL Central, the Cardinals offense has been stymied by the Pittsburgh Pirates the last two nights. They've only allowed five runs; most days that would result in two wins. But they've only scored 1 themselves. It's a great chance for some other NL Central team to gain ground.

Update: It won't be the Reds, who lose 7-5 to the Mets. Cliff Floyd had the big night for the New Yorkers with two home runs leading to four RBI.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Taking a Base
Permalink

I always enjoy looking at the Cleveland Indians boxscores, especially the ones that list OBA. Just look at those OBA's. Coco Crisp is rightly in the 9th slot with his low .300's, but the rest of the Indians all do a good job of getting on base. They need a pitcher or two, and I'm waiting to see if they trade for one. Would they be willing to take on Randy Johnson if they thought they could win the division? (See Shapiro's remarks earlier this year.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
I Hope It Doesn't Pop Out of His Chest and Start Eating Teammates
Permalink

Jason Giambi has a parasitic infection. I'm waiting for someone to tell me that it's a sure sign of steroid use. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 PM | Illnesses | Comments (2) | TrackBack (2)
Keeping the Ball Lowe
Permalink

Derek Lowe has given up seven runs through four innings against the Yankees. Three ground balls he's induced have turned into errors, and four of those seven runs are unearned. Derek has only struck out one so far, so he's given the defense plenty of opportunities to make mistakes. Lowe has now allowed 63 runs this year, but only 48 are earned. The Sox radio announcer said at the beginning of the game that one of the keys to victory would be a cleanly played defensive game.

Vazquez has allowed two HR, both solo shots by Johnny Damon. Vazquez has now allowed 15 HR, but 11 have been solo.

Update: Not an error, but Reese bobbles a ball that could have been an inning ending double play, and only gets the runner at 2nd. Tony Clark follows with a 2-run homer to make the score 9-2 in the 5th. The runs aren't unearned, but they sure are close.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 PM | Games | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

It's big series day. We'll start off with the Red Sox visiting the Yankees. When last we saw our antagonists locked in mortal combat, the Bostonians had swept a three game series in the Bronx by a combined score of 16-4. Boston had a 12-6 record at that point, and a 4 1/2 game lead on NY. There's been a 10 game turnaround since then, as the Yankees have played 24 games over .500 since then, and lead the Red Sox by 5 1/2. Derek Lowe will face Javier Vazquez. Both have regained their form of late, Lowe posting a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts, Vazquez a 2.70.

Separated by 1 in the standings and zero in the AFILC, the 2nd place White Sox take on the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins. Mark Buehrle will oppose Carlos Silva. Silva has been hammered by the White Sox in two starts this year, allowing 18 hits in 7 innings. If you take Sliva's White Sox starts out, he has a 3.31 ERA. Buehrle has been roughed up in three of his last four outings, helping him to a 6.62 ERA in June.

The Angels and Athletics battle for 2nd place in the AL West tonight as each tries to keep pace with the red hot Rangers. John Lackey will oppose Mark Mulder. Mark has not lost since April, and is 7-0 with a 2.66 ERA in May and June. Lackey has been in supreme control of the strike zone in June, issuing only three walks in 30 innings.

Finally, the Giants head south to LA to try to continue their winning streak against the Dodgers. Bonds has led the way against LA in 2004. In ten games against them, he has seven extra-base hits (four HR), seventeen walks, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. They've dropped the Dodgers to third place, 3 1/2 games out.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Washington, Selig and the Expos
Permalink

Off Wing Opinion links to an excellent three part series in the Washington Post on the behind the scenes scheming that will or will not bring the Expos to D.C. It's very long, but well worth the read. To sum it up as briefly as possible, MLB uses it's anti-trust exemption to cajole citites into paying for new stadiums. It's using the same tactics to get suitors for the Expos to pony up for a new stadium in order to get the Expos. Selig won't allow the team in Washington because he's now buddy-buddy with Angelos.

There is one quote I do want to share with you. Leave it to the A's to get things right:


The Bay Area is the prism through which Selig views the Baltimore-Washington debate. The market, he said, is not "a perfect analogy" but baseball needs to "learn from history" as it considers whether to put two teams so close together. His views were shaped by the struggles of the Giants and Athletics after A's then-owner Charles O. Finley moved his team from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968 "without any analysis at all," Selig said.

But recent developments have made Selig's views, along with many of the underlying assumptions shaping the debate in Washington, appear obsolete. Buoyed by the construction of a privately funded waterfront stadium, the Giants came within eight outs of winning the 2002 World Series and won the National League West last season by 15 1/2 games. The A's have drawn more than 2 million fans three straight seasons and had the second-best record in baseball from 2000 to '03.

"Competition is a wonderful thing; I believe in it strongly," said Steve Schott, the A's owner and one of the largest homebuilders in California. "If you don't have competition, what's to keep the other team from being very lax and complacent about trying to bring the best product they can to the marketplace?"

The population of the Bay Area, including San Jose, is 7 million. The population of the consolidated Baltimore-Washington metropolitan areas is 7.6 million.

Eric at Off Wing is concerned that a team in DC would devestate the Orioles television revenue. I would point out that would happen only if the Washington Expos were given exclusive rights to the TV markets Baltimore now serves. Let's follow Steve Shott's idea and introduce competition into the market. Why not let Philadelphia/Baltimore/Washington share a TV market. Let people watch their favorite team. One of the great things about growing up in the NY broadcast area in the 1970's was that with the Yankees, Mets, Knicks, Nets, Rangers and Islanders, there was always a game on! (And five of those teams were on one channel.) Let these teams duke it out on the dial.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM | Team Movements | Comments (4) | TrackBack (2)
June 28, 2004
Jack In the Box
Permalink

Jack Wilson uses some aggressive baserunning to beat the Cardinals in the 9th. With one out, he lined a double down the left field line. As he was approaching 2nd, he noticed that no one was covering 2nd to take the throw. He didn't stop, and headed for third. Womack realized his mistake at the last minute and rushed to 2nd to grab the throw. Tony then made a bad throw to third and Wilson scored. A great pitching matchup between Suppan and Benson ends on an extremely poor defensive play by Tony Womack. Pirates win 2-1.

Correction: As the commentor points out, it was Pujols who made the bad throw. My first impression of the play was that Lankford missed the cutoff man, and that's what must have happened. I never see the cutoff man in the video, so Womack must have been in the outfield to take the throw. It was actually a good play by Pujols to hustle to cover second when the bad throw came in from Lankford. Still a bad defensive play, but it looks like Lankford made the main mistake in missing the cutoff man, and Pujols compounded the error by throwing the ball away. Here's the story from St. Louis, the best description of the play I can find. Having looked at the play again on Tivo, it seems pretty clear that someone missed an assignment covering 2nd.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | Base Running | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Luck Continues
Permalink

Another lucky night so far for Victor Zambrano. He's allowed 4 hits and 3 walks through five innings, but only 1 run. All the hits have been singles, but only one came with a man in scoring position. One runners was taken out trying to stretch a single into a double, another by a double play. The DRays are up 4-1 in the 5th.

Joey Gathright is playing centerfield for the Rays tonight. The Transaction Guy wondered with Gathright was called up. I'm hoping it's because he has a great OBA and Baldelli doesn't. Gathright had a minor league OBA of .392. Baldelli is at .339 for the season and .330 for his career. The Rays winning streak is based on a great OBA. I'm hoping they are trying to make it even better with Gathright.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Suppan Supreme
Permalink

Jeff Suppan is off to a perfect start tonight. Through three innings, he hasn't allowed a base runner while striking out four. He's averaging 14 pitches per inning.

Update: Suppan has the no hitter through five innings. He's walked a batter and Rolen made an error. A double play, however, means that Jeff has only pitched to one man over the minimum.

Update: Craig Wilson doubles with 2 out in the 7th to break up the no-hitter. Suppan and the Cardinals still lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

Trailing by 4 1/2 games, the Toronoto Blue Jays send Roy Halladay to the mound against Victor Zambrano of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Zambrano continues to be haunted by walks. He's given up 20 in 25 innings this month, and has only struck out 17. For the year, he's walked 69 in 93 2/3 innings. Luckily for him, he doesn't give up many hits; opponents are only hitting .226 against him, but have an OBA of .369. And while he does give up extra-base hits, most of those come with the bases empty. He has not been a good pitcher, but this season his weaknesses have been masked by good luck and his ability to keep the hit column low.

Atlanta host the Marlins trailing Florida by 4 1/2 games. Brad Penny takes the mound for the Marlins with a 7-5 record not in line with his ERA of 2.65. John Thomson will oppose Penny for the Braves. After a decent start, he seems to have reverted to his Texas Rangers form, allowing 18 runs, 17 earned over his last three starts. Watch the Andrew Jones/Penny matchup; Jones has 6 HR in 38 career AB vs. Brad.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:54 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Break Up the Cardinals
Permalink

The Cardinals have jumped out to a five game lead in the NL Central with the help of an excellent record in interleague play. The Cardinals have gone 8-1 against the American League so far, while the Cubs have posted a 5-4 record and the Reds have only won 3 of 9. In between their sweeps of Oakland and Kansas City, the Cardinals managed to take 2 of three from both the Cubs and the Reds. They've won 11 of their last 13, outscoring their opponents almost 2:1 (81-43; average score 6.2-3.3). What appeared to be a close race not too long ago is starting to turn into a rout.

Correction: The Cards are in the NL Central.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
June 27, 2004
Nightmare on 35th St.
Permalink

The White Sox have obtained Freddy Garcia from the Mariners. The White Sox are currently 9th in the AL in starter's ERA. Their top four starters all have ERA's in the 4's, so this should give them a very solid five man core once Schoeneweis comes back from the DL. Garcia has 8 win shares this year, two more than the best starters on the White Sox.

According to the ESPN article, Garcia and Guillen are very good friends. I wonder if the White Sox think they can sign him to a contract based on that friendship and avoid losing Freddy to free agency?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Happy Anniversary
Permalink

Congratulations to the SOMBILLA on their 25th anniversary. Sorry I could not make the party today. :(

You can read the history of the Pinto Hatchbacks' best SOMBILLA season here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:01 PM | Simulations | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Family Ties
Permalink

So far, it appears that the return of Jose Contreras' family has had the desired effect. Through three Jose has allowed only 1 hit to the Mets while striking out three. Reyes, who led off with a hit, was caught stealing so Contreras has faced the minimum 9 batters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:56 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2004
Where to Throw?
Permalink

I saw one of the worst defensive plays I've ever seen today in the Mets-Yankees game. In the top of the fourth, with runners on 1st and third, Reyes tries to steal 2nd. Halsey, however, has Reyes picked off. Giambi takes the ball, and instead of turning and throwing to 2nd, looks at the runner at third, Phillips, who is going nowhere. Giambi misses his chance to get Reyes, never even throwing to 2nd for what should have been an easy out. Kaz Matsui then singles in both runners, chasing Halsey from the game.

Halsey did not have his control today, walking five. So you can't blame his early departure on Giambi. But Jason, although not charged with an error, cost the young lefty a run.

Al Leiter gets only his third win in 12 starts, despite a 2.34 ERA. He struggled at times, but shutdown A-Rod and Giambi, who were batting with plenty of men on base today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:13 PM | Defense | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Out Hit, But Not Out Scored
Permalink

The Red Sox offense, on the surface, had a pretty good day vs. the Phillies. They belted 14 hits, including three doubles. They had hits in every inning but the 9th; but no more than 2 hits in any inning until the 8th. The Phillies, with 13 hits, also took advantage of four Red Sox errors to score five unearned runs.

This points to a discussion heard on Boston sports radio the other day. What's the use of getting on base if you just stay on base? The Red Sox had a .375 OBA today. Most days that's going to lead to a lot of runs. Why aren't the Sox scoring more?

If you look at the Red Sox stats by lineup slot, you see a tremendous fall off in power from the 4th slot to the fifth. The five, six and seven hitters combined have a slugging percentage in the low .400's. It's not a lack of clutch hitting that's hurting the Red Sox; it's an inability in prime RBI slots of the Sox to generate the extra-base hits that move runners along.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:02 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

With the rain out last night, the NY battle of the lefties moves to today. See yesterday's post for details.

An excellent pitching matchup in Cleveland after last night's slugfest. Joe "The Patriarch" Kennedy takes on CC "Milliliter" Sabathia. Kennedy has been fairly amazing this year, posting sub 4.00 ERAs at home and on the road. It works great at Coors, where he's 4-1, but not so well on the road, where he's 1-3. He's actually giving up HR at a higher rate on the road! Another reason is that the Rockies score only 3.9 runs per game on the road. Milliliter has been perfect so far in June, going 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA. He's only allowed 2 HR in 34 innings this month, after allowing 6 in May.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
June 25, 2004
Games of the Day
Permalink

It's the weekend of the interleague rivalries as MLB tries to take advantage of natural matchups wherever they can. One of the better matchups tonight takes place at Yankee Stadium, where Al Leiter faces Brad Halsey. Leiter was once the up-and coming Yankee lefty. Now Leiter is a big part of the year of the old pitcher, while Halsey is the young left-hander who may end up traded for hitting.

Carlos Beltran (I'm assuming he's going to play) will try to derail John Wasdin's resurection in Texas. Wasdin did not pitch in 2002, and last season had a 23.40 ERA in five innings. He'll be opposed by Wade Miller who has allowed 1 earned run in his last three starts. If you asked most people at the start of the season which Texas team would be in first and which would be struggling, this is not the answer you would have received.

Finally, in the battle of the Bay, the Giants drive across the bridge to visit the Athletics. Jason Schmidt will face Barry Zito. Schmidt is one of the few youngsters vying for the NL Cy Young award this year. :-) He's struck out 38 while walking only 8 in June. Zito has been hurt by the long ball this year. Twelve HR allowed already is high for him. Lefties have hit him well in 2004, so we'll see how Barry does tonight.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:55 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
BALCO Leaks
Permalink

Here's the latest story from the BALCO scandal .
Of course, there's now a scandal over the scandal, as leaking of grand jury testimony is illegal. I thought this was the most interesting thing I read in both articles:


Montgomery did testify that Conte began giving him banned substances soon after the 2000 Olympics, the newspaper reported.

"How many times did he give you human growth hormone?" Nedrow asked Montgomery at one point.

"He would send four vials a month," Montgomery answered.

Montgomery told Nedrow he had followed the regimen for "maybe eight months." He said he got no benefit from "the clear" and split with Conte in September 2001 over a money dispute. He broke the world record the following year.


So we're investigating people over something that didn't work? This investigation and the press coverage of it smells more and more like a witch hunt to get Bonds.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Cheating | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Triangle Trade
Permalink

A three way deal sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros, Octavio Dotel to the A's, and three young players to the Royals.

Here's the view from Oakland.


Unlike Arthur Rhodes, who began the season as the A's closer, Dotel has an established track record finishing games, with 14 saves in 17 chances this year. Over the past three years, he's compiled a 2.30 ERA, and opponents have hit just .179 against him.

"He throws 12,000 miles an hour,'' Beane said gleefully before describing how he'd watched Dotel strike out Angels slugger Vladimir Guerrero with a 98- mph fastball last weekend. "He's one of the most talented relievers in the game and he fills a very big need.''


Maybe the Orioles were right about Arthur Rhodes closing. Rhodes has almost walked as many and given more HR than he did all of last season. If he truly is best designed to be a set-up man, then a Bradford/Rhodes/Dotel combination to end the game should be very good for the A's.

Kansas City appears to have become resigned to not resigning players.


This is how jaded we baseball fans have become in Kansas City: I immediately thought, “Hey, that's a good trade.” That was my very first reaction. The Royals on Thursday evening traded Carlos Beltran, the most exciting player the Royals have had in a decade, for three guys that, until three days ago, I had never heard of.

And my first reaction was, “Yeah, good trade.”

This is how sad and illogical this game of baseball has become.


This is hogwash. It was a bad trade. The Royals have a payroll of $47 million, which is at the low end. They already pay Beltran $9 million. They could easily clear 6 million by getting rid of Gonzalez and Santiago, two old players who aren't helping. Hell, find a sucker team to take Mike Sweeney! His power went last year, and his selectivity this year, but I'm sure you could convince Bavasi in Seattle he'd be a great replacement for Olerud. It's too bad KC didn't sign him to a five-year, $45 million contract three years ago. They would have come out ahead in the long run.

Needless to say, Houston likes the deal.


This trade guarantees the Astros nothing except a chance. Even the best trades come with risks.

Carlos Beltran is worth the risk.

He's one of those players with a dazzling package of skills. That he's headed for a fourth straight season of at least 24 home runs, 100 RBIs and 31 stolen bases doesn't begin to tell you how good he is.

He'll hit third and make the hitters around him better. He'll win games with his defense in center. He'll make the corner outfielders better.

Sometimes, one player can change the entire fabric of a team. Not only does Beltran add production, but he elevates the attitude and confidence of those around him.


Beltran is very good, but I don't think he's exceptional like Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez. As of 6/10, Beltran had 10 wins shares, and Houston had three players with that many or more. But Dotel only had 4, so it's a big improvement for the Astros. An extremely formidable offense just got better. They may win a lot of games without the need for a closer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)
June 24, 2004
OBP Rap
Permalink

Powered by audblogaudio post powered by audblog

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:46 PM | Statistics | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Wrong Slugfest
Permalink

Looks like I got the slugfest of the day wrong in my Games of the Day post. The Blue Jays have scored six runs in the bottom of the 9th, but still trail Tampa Bay 19-13 with 2 outs.

Upate: Tampa Bay wins. With the Red Sox loss, the DRays are only five games out of 2nd place.

Update: Brian Gunn at Redbird Nation says it's the first time ever that there's been a major league game that ended with the score 19-13.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:57 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Pizza Party
Permalink

I'll be at the Baseball Prospectus Pizza Feed tonight in Boston. I hope to meet some of you there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM | Baseball | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Unproductive Outs
Permalink

Larry Mahnken at the Hardball Times does a study of productive outs, and (surprise, suprise) finds that the small correlation they have with winning percentage is negative. Great job, Larry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:36 PM | Statistics | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
You Go, Lugo!
Permalink

There is no stopping Julio Lugo. He's 2 for 3 today with 2 RBI, which moves him into the top 20 in the AL with 43. He's batting .357 in June and has scored 19 runs in the month. And the Rays are back on top again, leading Toronto 8-4 in the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:29 PM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Eye on the Ball
Permalink

NESN has a cool new toy for their Red Sox broadcasts. They have a ball tracker that freezes the ball in the frame as it travels from hand to plate. What you end up with is a trace of the flight of the pitch. They've shown a couple of Wakefield's knucklers with it today, and I got a much better appreciation for how that pitch moves.

I saw something similar in the White Sox broadcast the other day, but they used the technology to track an outfielder as he raced for the ball. It was very interesting to watch as his head followed the ball the entire time. His body was moving, running, diving, but his head stayed on the ball.

These video enhancements are the best I've seen in a long time. They certainly beat catcher cam.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:03 PM | Broadcasts | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays try to return to their winning ways today in a neat battle of lefties in Toronto. John Halama and and Ted Lilly are both pitchers I had high hopes for early in their careers. Halama is a Tommy John lefty, depending on his control and defense. Lilly is a power lefty, who has a tendancy to tire and give up the long ball. Lilly's put together four good starts in a row, and is currently 15th in the AL in ERA. Halama, after doing well in the bullpen, has been moved to the starting rotation. One thing that Halama has done is find a way to strike out more batters. His K per 9 this season, 6.03, is up 67% over his career rate.

The slugfest of the day looks like it might be in San Francisco, where the Giants attempt a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hideo Nomo takes the mound for the Dodgers sporting a 7.26 ERA. The Giants counter with Brett Tomko with the better but still bad ERA of 5.86. Both have ERAs over 7 in their last three appearances.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Graduation Video
Permalink

My daughter Melinda graduated from 8th grade over the weekend. Here's the video of her getting her diploma. Needless to say, we're very proud.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 AM | Other | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 23, 2004
Unlucky 13
Permalink

The Devil Rays winning streak ends at 12 as they lose to Toronto 2-1 in 10 innings. Victor Zambrano pitched a good game, allowing 4 hits, 4 walks and 1 run over 8 innings. Halladay was nearly as good, allowing 1 run and striking out 8 over 7 innings. Jesus Colome took the loss, allowing 3 hits and 2 walks over 1 1/3 innings, and will no doubt be crucified in the press tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Walk Like a Man
Permalink

Rooftop Report notices that Jose Macias ended a dubious streak tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
Permalink

Tonight in San Diego we have another battle of old lefties. Randy Johnson takes the mound for the Diamondbacks against crafty lefty David Wells. The pitchers have almost identical ERAs; Johnson is at 3.05, Wells at 3.06. Both are great control pitchers; Johnson this season is walking 2.15 per 9. Wells is even better, walking just 0.89 per 9. Wells, however, relies heavily on his defense as he's only struck out a little over 3 per 9, while the Big Unit is striking out over 10 per 9. Watch for the Luis Gonzalez/Wells matchup; Luis has had no trouble with the lefty, going 5 for 12 with 2 HR vs. David. Brian Giles has had terrible luck against Johnson, going just 2 for 24 with 12 K, although 1 of the two hits was a HR.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:17 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Family Escape
Permalink

Here's more from the NY Times on the Contreras family defection. A total of 21 people escaped by boat. To paraphrase my wife, it must be pretty bad if you're willing to risk drowning to leave.

Now we'll see if this makes a difference in Jose's pitching. He gets his first chance to shine on Saturday vs. the Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | Pitchers | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Blowing in the Wind Out to Left Field
Permalink

Michael Katz sends this link to an announcement about a Bob Dylan/Willie Nelson tour that will hit 22 minor-league parks. I suspect these stadiums will all set attendance records for these performances.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 AM | Other | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Giant Step
Permalink

The Giants are back in first place after an 11-5 win over the Dodgers. If this run had happened in September, we'd be talking about one of the great comebacks. But divisions are won as much in June (or April or May) as they are in September; it's just not clear when it happened until the season is over. The little used Deivi Cruz banged out five hits last night, including three doubles and is now hitting .326 in 95 AB. Durham and Tucker set the table with three hits apiece and scored four runs. Alfonzo knocked in six with two hits. and has 25 RBI in June after driving in only 18 in April and May. The pitching wasn't great, but it was good enough to win a high scoring game (something Cleveland didn't do last night).

At this point in the season, 21 of the 30 teams are in contention for the playoffs and in five of the six divisions, no more than 1 game separates 1st from 2nd. And no team is so far out that a nice winning streak wouldn't bring them back into contention.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Standings | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2004
Never Say Die
Permalink

Kazuhito Tadano relieved in the first after Elarton walked four, but allowed three more runs to give Chicago an 8-0 lead. But the Indians offense was up to the challenge. Lawton, Belliard and Crisp have all homered, Coco giving them the lead in the 8th 9-8. It's another White Sox slugfest, and another they are in danger of losing.

Update: Back to back doubles leading off the bottom half of the eighth tie the game at 9.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Dozen
Permalink

The Devil Rays bullpen does it's job, the offense provides some power and the DRays win their 12th in a row. Julio Lugo continues his hot hitting with a 2 for 3 night, including a HR. The Rays are only six games out of the wild card.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Javy Who?
Permalink

Johnny Estrada continues to be an effective replacement for Javy Lopez. He's four for four tonight, driving all three of the Braves runs. He's posted a .386 OBA and a .498 slugging percentage through the 8th inning. Lopez is at .356-.457. Both are great numbers for a catcher, but the Braves are getting Estrada at a much lower price.

The Braves trail the Marlins 4-3 in the bottom of the 8th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Heart Hat Trick
Permalink

Nomar Garciaparra hits his first home run of the year, a grand slam to give the Red Sox an 8-1 lead in the 7th. Ortiz, Ramirez and Garciaparra, the 3-4-5 hitters, all homer driving in 8. You can't ask for more from the heart of the order.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | Sluggers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New Baseball Site
Permalink

SportzNow.com is a new baseball news site. Stop by and say hello. They are looking for fan writers, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | Blogs | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rays Relief
Permalink

Once again, the Tampa Bay bullpen is getting the job done. Chad Gaudin Sandwiched four walks around a double play in the first before Lou Piniella pulled him. Harper came in and allowed 2 hits over 4. Miller is in now and struck out the only batter he faced. The DRays lead 4-0 in the 6th.

Update: Scott Elarton of the Indians also walked four in the first before getting the third out. The White Sox added a hit and the Indians an error to give Chicago a 3-0 lead after one. The Indians bullpen will need to go the distance to try to keep the game close.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Freedom from Castro
Permalink

William Bragg has the story on Jose Contreras' wife and children leaving Cuba.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Weaver's Ghost
Permalink

The Yankees are channeling Earl Weaver tonight. Walk, walk and a three run homer by Alex Rodriguez starts off the top of the first. It's the 362nd of A-Rod's career, moving him past Joe DiMaggio on the all-time list.

Update: It's three-run HR night in Baltimore. All three shortstops (A-Rod, Jeter and Tejada have all socked them tonight. Earl is smiling somewhere.

Update: Just to be clear here, I know Earl Weaver is alive. I was writing metaphorically.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Move Along
Permalink

That's the way to get the side in the first. Schilling throws eight pitches, seven for strikes as he retires the Twins in the first on two ground outs and a strikeout.

Update: David Ortiz hurts his former team with a solo HR in the first to give the Red Sox a 1-0 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays go north of the border to try to extend their winning streak to twelve games as they face the Toronto Blue Jays with Chad Gaudin and Pat Hentgen on the mound. I thought the addition of Lilly, Batista and Hentgen would help the Jays rotation, and their starter's ERA is down to 4.41 from 4.69 last year. But while Lilly and Batista are in the top 20 in ERA, Hentgen has struggled. A big difference for Pat is his situational pitching this year. In 2003, his batting average allowed was .242 with the bases empty, .254 with men on. This season, it's .228 with the bases empty, but .343 with men on. And what's worse, it's with men on that he gets hit for power. The slugging percentage against Hentgen is .407 with the bases empty, but .593 with men on. Power hitting scores runners.

The Reds visits New York as former Metropolitan Paul Wilson faces Matt Ginter. Wilson is undefeated and leads the NL in winning percentage with his 7-0 record. Ginter is rivaling former Met great Ron Darling in the no decision category. Despite seven starts and a stellar 2.79 ERA, Ginter has only 1 win and a loss to show for it. Matt needs to get past the 6th inning barrier more often to pick up some wins.

Two former Braves take the mound in St. Louis as the Cubs come into town trailing the Cardinals by two games. Greg Maddux will face Jason Marquis. Maddux has found his groove and put together four straight good starts. He's walked 2 and struck out 20 over those four while allowing only 1 HR. The start Marquis skipped on June 10th appears to have helped, as he went seven five-hit innings in his last outing, beating Oakland while allowing just two runs.

The Double A series continues in Anaheim, as the Athletics send Tim Hudson to the mound against Bartolo Colon in the battle of Aces. Hudson is leading the AL in ERA; Colon has lost some of his luster. Bartolo has lost his last three starts, his last four decisions, and has given up 35 earned runs in his last 38 innings, including 14 home runs. The Angels right now have to be a little unhappy with the money they spent on Bartolo. They did not expect to get a semi-Colon.


And finally, the Giants go for first place against the Dodgers tonight on the shores of McCovey Cove. The Dodgers should be having their best month offensively; their OPS is .800 in June vs. .782 in April, but their runs per game is only 4.5 in June vs. 4.95 in April. There's some pent up offense in LA. Meanwhile, the Giants, who couldn't buy a hit earlier in the year are hitting .280 in June with a .382 OBA. And they are scoring 6.65 runs per game.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:51 PM | Games | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Gaining Ground
Permalink

Three division races moved a little closer last night as the Giants, Angels and Indians all defeated teams ahead in the standings. It was a particularly good night for the Texas Rangers, as Anaheim's defeat of Oakland put the Rangers in first place by percentage points. Just 1/2 game separates the three contenders in the AL West.

The Indians reached the .500 mark with an excellent performance by CC Sabathia and some early power against Scott Schoeneweis. They have three more games against the White Sox, but they don't face the Twins again until 8/20. Maybe Mark Shapiro's prediction was correct, and that series in August could be very important in deciding the AL Central.

The Giants paid the Ransom and Mota let the game go. With two out in the ninth, three Giants reach baase, and Mota gives up the game winning hit to Cody Ransom. Mota's striking out more than 1 per inning, but facing six batters last night he came up empty. The Giants have made up nearly 7 games since the start of play on May 20.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | Division Races | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2004
Perfect Perez
Permalink

Odalis Perez has retired the first 9 Giants he's faced. Unfortunately, the game is not on DirecTV, so I can't stay up and watch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Backwards Lineup
Permalink

The Arizona Diamondbacks lineup struck me as very unusual tonight, especially in the top three slots. All three hitters have OBA's between .351 and .361. But they are arranged in order of descending slugging percentage. In general, you want the sluggers behind the table setters because the value of slugging is driving runners a long distance.

Hairston, with a lead-off double, now has a .550 slugging percentage. Finley bats behind him, with a .525 slugging percentage. Now, you might expect Finely to try to drive in Hairston with a big hit and go for the big inning. But nooooooooooooo! Brenly has Finley lay down a bunt. A .525 slugger giving away an out in the first inning with a man on 2nd. The third hitter, Bautista has a low .448 Slug%. Isn't the third hitter supposed to be the best on your team? Bautista grounds out, driving in Hairston. So the DBacks play for one run, and get it.

I'm sorry, this is not major league managing. This is wasting opportunities. It's not maximizing the chances for your team to score. It's giving in to the idea that your team can't score, and forcing that idea into reality.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | Strategy | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Scott Shots
Permalink

The Indians took no time to continue pounding Scott Schoeneweis. Belliard led off the game with a HR, and Blake followed a while later with a 2-run shot to make the score 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

There's a small but action packed schedule tonight. The Cleveland Indians are in the hunt for both a .500 record and closing in on 2nd place as they visit Chicago for a four game series with the White Sox. The Indians send CC Sabathia to the mound to face Scott Schoeneweis in a battle of south paws. Milliliter is sporting a 2.95 ERA, 3rd in the AL. Schoeneweis is following up an excellent May (3-1, 3.18 ERA) with a dreadful June (1-3, 6.75 ERA). Scott has mixed results against the Indians this year, winning 1 of two starts, but allowing 11 runs (9 earned) in 11 1/3 innings. He's struck out 10 (very good) but walked 9 (very bad). The Indians are 3 1/2 games behind Chicago in the AL Central, so they should be looking to take at least 3 out 4.

Out west, it's the Bay vs. La-La Land in two important games. The Athletics host the Angels in a battle for AL West supremecy. Rich Harden will take on John Lackey. Harden, with 74 K in 73 innings leads the AL with 9.12 K per 9. Lackey has been bothered by the home run ball, allowing 10 so far this year, five with men on base.

Across the Bay, the Giants will be hosting the first place Dodgers. SF and LA are tied in wins, and the Giants will see if they can force LA to make up the losses. Odalis Perez will hurl for the Dodgers; his 2.88 ERA is 8th in the NL. The Giants have hit lefties better than righties this season, so it should be a good matchup for them. Kirk Rueter takes the mound for the Giants, and the Dodgers are a little weaker against lefties. Watch for the Milton Bradley-Rueter matchup, as Milton has 2 HR in 9 AB vs. Kirk.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Twin Wins
Permalink

I find the Twins to be a very interesting team. Without the fanfare of the A's, they built a very strong farm system and developed a good team on the cheap. Like the A's, they were willing to let older players go (Ortiz, Pierzynski) to make room for younger talent. They are another nail in the coffin of the meme that you can't win without spending a lot of money.

They're in first place again this year, and they've gotten there the hard way. They've been outscored by their opponents 326-322. They really should have a .500 record. They have done well in 1-run games, going 13-8. But the Chicago White Sox have been as unlucky as the Twins have been lucky. The pale hose should be at .585 and have a 5 1/2 game lead over the Twins. Yet, the White Sox are also doing well in 1-run games, going 13-7. What is true is that the Twins have not done well in games decided by five runs or more; they are 7-11.

One of my rules of thumb in evaluating teams is that great teams win big. The Twins aren't a great team. But they are doing a good job of winning when they are able. And two hopeful signs; one is the return of Joe Mauer, who should take some pressure off Lew Ford, who has been the offense this year. The Twins are 10-6 since Joe's come off the DL. Mauer hasn't been getting on base, but he has supplied power, as 7 of his 10 hits have been for extra bases. The other sign of hope is Johan Santana, who has put together three great outings in a row.

The Twins have achieved a record in excess of their play in this first half. The Twins underperformed offensively. With the return of Mauer, and with the return of the rest of the Twins to their 2003 performance (especially Meintkiewicz, Koskie and Jones), the Twins have a good chance of building on a lucky first half to take them to a division title.

Correction: Edited for clarity.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2004
Gagne with a Spoon
Permalink

Nice to see Eric Gagne coming into the game with 2 outs in the 8th. He blows away A-Rod with a 2-2 fast ball to get the third out. Gagne has 3 four-out save so far this year.

Update: Giambi leads off the 9th with a HR off Gagne. It's 5-4, and Gagne has the rest of the heart of the order coming up. It's the 4th HR he's allowed this year, twice as many as he allowed all last year.

Sheffield hammers the ball in his AB, but right at Beltre, who throws him out at first.

Update: Posada lines out to left. It's up to Matsui.

Update: Matsui called out on a pitch high on the outside corner. K-Zone had it outside the strikezone. Matsui thought he walked, and it looks like he was right. That's 81 saves in a row for Gagne.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Games | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
One-Hit Schmidt
Permalink

Jason Schmidt pitched his 2nd 1-hit shutout of the year today. He's allowed 57 hits in 91 2/3 innings, and his .176 BA allowed is the lowest in the majors (although his .242 OBA allowed is 3rd). His two 1-hitters have been against two tough teams, the Cubs in Chicago and the Red Sox today. The NL Cy Young race is wide open with Schmidt, Clemens, Johnson, Glavine, Zambrano and Sheets all making good bids for the award.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Patriarch Day
Permalink

Joe "The Patriarch" Kennedy continues to demonstrate how to pitch at Coors field. With his seven shutout innings, he's lowered his ERA at home to 3.75 in 50 1/3 innings. He kept the ball in the infield, getting 9 ground outs and 5 pop outs to go along with four strikeouts. Unfortunately, the bullpen blew the game for him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Top Backstop
Permalink

Interesting to see Michael Barrett leading off for the Cubs today. His .353 OBA is one of the good ones on the team. Dusty Baker explained his reasoning:


"Michael's been my everything man. He can bat seventh, eighth, fifth, second. He'll be where I think he can help us best that day."

Craig Biggio and Jason Kendall are other catchers who have led off, yet it's still rare.

"We don't have a prototypical leadoff man, so we might as well go with the guy who can hit," Baker said. "It's not a big deal. Sometimes I'm doing it because I want to do it. I wish I was a basketball coach -- it's 'coach's decision.'"


As Grudzielanek heals, he'll go back to the leadoff spot, but it's good to see that Dusty is willing to think outside the box to construct his lineup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | Strategy | TrackBack (0)
Pen Streak
Permalink

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays relievers are on a nice streak of their own. They've gone sixteen innings without allowing a run, including a great 7 inning shutout performance by Rob Bell yesterday. Bell had given up 9 ER in 9 2/3 innings in his previous two starts.

Here's a cute point-counter-point on whether the DRays will stay out of last place.

Update: Another 2 1/3 scoreless innings for the pen today. The DRays have now won 11 in a row and now trail the Red Sox by 6 games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

The best pitching matchup of the day is between two teams going nowhere. Freddy Garcia faces Oliver Perez as the Mariners go for a sweep of their series against the Pirates. Garica is on a trade tour, as the Mariners seem to have decided he's the player to trade to start the rebuilding process. Of course, given the way Bavasi destroyed the team in only a few months, why would anyone trust his opinion on how to rebuild? Perez's improvement this year follows the improvement in his control. His strikeout rate remains as high as ever, but now he's striking out over 3 for every batter he walks, instead of under 2.

The Yankees and Dodgers play the rubber game of their series on ESPN in high definition tonight. ESPN has recently changed something about their HD channel; they no longer stretch out 4:3 pictures to fill the screen. What you are getting now is a much sharper image, even if the underlying cameras are not HD. And when they do show a Sunday Night game in HD, it is spectacular. I noticed it last week when they took an overhead shot of a pitcher warming up. There was shot from an unusual angle, diagonally across the diamond. You had a real sense of depth; you could see how the dirt was disturbed on the mound, and you could see the details of the mowing of the grass. If you have a friend or bar showing the game in HD tonight, it's worth watching.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Trade Bait
Permalink

While watching yesterday's tilt between the Yankees and Dodgers, the Fox broadcasters pointed out that Dan Evans, former Dodgers GM and current Mariners scout was in the stands. Their speculation was that Evans came to look at Brad Halsey, and that Halsey might end up in a trade for Freddy Garcia. Sitting there thinking about such a move, I have a difficult time trying to figure out if I like that trade or not.

My first reaction is that against the trade. Halsey has a number of things going for him that would point toward success in the majors, namely good control and a low number of HR allowed. You can see his minor league numbers here and here. His strikeout rate isn't high, but it's more than adequate given his control. He's left-handed, which is always a good thing to be in Yankee Stadium. And at the moment, he comes cheap.

Against this you have Garcia, who after two mediocre years has regained his form of 2000-2001 (mostly, he's cut his HR down vs. the last two years). Adding Garcia would give the Yankees four top-notch right-handers. It would also add a few million to the payroll.

My feeling is give Halsey a chance. He can't be any worse than Lieber or Contreras, who have winning records despite high ERAs. And there's a chance he'll be a whole lot better.

On the other hand, in a perverse way, the trade may actually be good for baseball as a whole. It would help Seattle reduce payroll, and give them a good young pitcher which would help them control costs for a few years. The Yankees would add payroll, which would increase the amount of tax they'd pay, which benefits other teams. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the year, so unless the Yankees do a trade and sign, he'll likely see what he's worth this winter, meaning it won't be a long term concentration of power for NY.

I'd like to see Halsey get a couple of more starts for NY. If he can pitch, the Yankees should keep him. At most, they should use him to drive up Garcia's price to others who may be interested in a trade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Pitchers | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2004
Games of the Day
Permalink

An interesting contrast in tonight's D contraction game. The DRays send lefty John Halama to the mound against the DBacks Randy Johnson. Halama is a Tommy John lefty. He depends on control and a good defense to gather all the balls that are put in play against him. This is his first start of the year. Randy Johnson, on the same hand, seems capable of striking out 27 batters on a good night. He throws hard, and he throws deceptively. Both have been effective this year.

The Yankees visit LA, and will get to face Jeff Weaver. No doubt the Yankees hitters hope he pitches as well tonight as he did for the Yankees last year. He'll face Javier Vazquez, who is 7-4. Vazquez has only walked 1 batter in three starts this June.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:24 PM | Games | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Billy Marlin
Permalink

No, not him. The White Sox have traded closer Billy Koch to the Fish. Koch has had the worst control of his career this year, walking 16 in 23 1/3 innings. What he still has going for him is the ability to strike out batters, 25 this season, better than 9 per 9 innings. Can the Marlins get his walks under control, like they were in his best season, 2000? The staff as a whole does a good job of not walking batters. Maybe some of that will rub off on Koch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2004
Lowe Up
Permalink

Since I argued against the chances of Lowe improving after his slow start, he's only allowed 2 earned runs over his last 19 innings. Today was the 2nd consecutive start in which he pitched seven shutout innings. He's still walking a lot of batters, four each in his last two starts. But the bottom line is that his opponents are not scoring.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Mets Get Hidalgo
Permalink

And so, the trading season begins. The Mets have acquired Richard Hidalgo from the Houston Astros for Weathers and Griffiths.

Hidalgo is not a very consistent ballplayer. He'l have great years like 2000 and 2003, good years like 1998 and 2001, and terrible years like this year. If the Mets are really looking for him to improve their team, they have to hope he's going to hit better than he has so far this season.

The Astros bullpen problems seem to be walks and HR, and based on Weathers' stats this year, he's not going to help them much there. Maybe both these players needed a change of scenery.

Update: Win shares wise the Mets win 4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:58 PM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Improving Umpires
Permalink

Derek Zumsteg pens a piece about the state of umpiring. In general, it's positive.


The state of umpiring today is amazing. While umpires are devoid of the kind of personality that, say, Ron Luciano had, as a group they have improved so markedly since baseball broke their union that it's amazing to watch old games on ESPN Classic, even playoff games. Umpires today are faster to get into position and more observant. They're willing to consult other umps who might have a better view of a disputed play. They're far more professional than their predecessors.

I'm not surprised by this. In my initial rant about the union stopping the A-Rod to Boston trade I wrote:

It's my opinion that the MLBPA is the greatest labor union the world has ever seen. Most labor unions set up systems that insure the continued employment of their least talented workers, while limiting the advancement of their most talented. The MLBPA has done just the opposite. They set up parameters for salary growth and negotiation, but how much you make depends in great part on how well you perform. They protect players rights extremely well, make sure they have generous benefits and proper legal counsel. It should be the model for how all unions operate.

The umpires union was protecting the bad umpires, bringing down the overall quality of their crews. If, like the MLBPA, they had worried about salary and benefits, and let umpires ability to umpire determine participation in baseball, they still might be in business.

Derek, however, believes things still need to get better.


I am more convinced than ever that the umpires have demonstrated the need for better strike zone measurement tools. We haven't heard much about Questec this year, due in part to Tom Glavine enjoying a bounceback year. But I watch so much baseball it frightens small children, and I see blown balls and strike calls all the time. And I don't even mean close calls, either, I'm taking about clearly up, down, or off the plate and my favorite, Ye Olde Hit the Target Strike. Like the other parts of the umpire's game, it's gotten better, but it's still not as good as it needs to be.

Derek feels we need some automatic tools to help umpires. The problem is, automatic tools make mistakes also. In my previous job at the University of Massachusetts, I worked in a lab that conducted research in information retrieval. What I basically learned is that these types of problems are very difficult to solve exactly. So, if you go to an automatic system, you're still go to have bad calls; the difference, I believe, would be that the bad calls would be on the edges, rather than the flagrant calls Derek discusses above.

One thing that would help in a video system are more cameras at more angles. But that's a big cost in both equipment, and time to analyze all that data. A cool solution would be to use GPS. A GPS reciever would be built into the center of each ball. The problem with this, of, course, is that GPS is only accurate at best to about 1 meter, which is way to big for calling strikes. However, if instead of using the satellites, a large number (>5) transmitters were built into the structure of each ballpark (on each light pole, for example), I bet you could get very good accuracy for the position of the ball during flight. You could also put four sensors on the batter, to frame his strikezone.

But would all this technology really improve things? I think the correct use of any ball/strike location system is the way Questec is being used; to teach umpires what they called wrong so they are less likely to make the same mistakes in the future. Calling balls and strikes acurately is as difficult a problem for machines as it is for humans. Let's use our machines to work with our umpires not replace them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:33 PM | Umpires | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Who Needs a DH?
Permalink

Ryan Drese doubled and scored in his first AB against the Reds today. Through four, that gives him as many hits and total bases as the Reds.

Update: Drese singles in the fifth, and is halfway to the cycle. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:45 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

Tony La Russa goes for a sweep of his old team today as the A's face the Cardinals again in St. Louis. Tim Hudson will try to keep the brooms in the closet. His 2.80 ERA is 2nd in the AL. Opponents have not been able to hit for power against Tim; he's allowed a .349 slugging percentage this year, third in the AL. The Cardinals have the 2nd highest slugging percentage in the NL, so it will be fun to see how Hudson handles them. Watch for Roger Cedeno to be in the lineup tonight; he's six for six vs. Hudson with a walk. Jeff Suppan will be hurling for the Cardinals. He's allowed 12 HR, and his .436 slugging percentage allowed is 8th highest in the NL. And the A's do hit home runs (84, 4th in the AL).

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays try to extend their winning streak to 8 games in San Diego tonight. The Rays are now in third place in the American League East, only eight games behind the Red Sox for 2nd. San Diego, meanwhile, has fallen into third in the NL West. The Devil Rays send reliever turned starter Chad Gaudin to the mound to face Adam Eaton. Gaudin had 5 K and 0 BB in his 4.2 inning start, but he did allow seven hits. Adam Eaton is coming off two good starts after a very disappointing May. He's only allowed 1 HR in his last 13 innings after allowing 12 in his first 65. What's worse, the HR have done a lot of damage as 7 of the 13 have come with men on, including four three-run homers.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Chipping In
Permalink

Andrew Godfrey points out the Chipper Jones has moved back to third base. Atlanta has had the worst offensive third basemen in the league this year, mostly Mark DeRosa. However, they've replaced Jones in LF with former Cardinals catcher Eli Marrero, who is not exactly a great offensive player, either. Part of the move is due to Chipper's injury:


An injured right hamstring forced Chipper Jones to the bench, and he still can't run well enough to cover the outfield. He had been taking grounders at first in the past few weeks and was expected to play there; instead, the 1999 NL MVP replaced Mark DeRosa at third.

Chipper Jones declined to speak with reporters after the game. Earlier in the day, he appeared to relish the opportunity to return to the infield, even though he bumped one of his best friends out of the lineup.

"Third is my natural position, I feel comfortable there," Jones said. "I've never played an inning at first. It just seemed like the natural thing to do."


The question for me is, what are the Braves going to do long term. Chipper was moved to left field, after all, because he's not a good third baseman. So do the Braves look for a hitter who can play left field (not that hard to find) or a glove man who can play third base and hit enough so as not to be a liability (harder to find)?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Defense | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
To Rest or Not to Rest
Permalink

In reading the Boston Globe's account of Schilling's performance last night, the following struck me:


The thin air in mile-high Denver may have played a role by affecting one of his signature pitches.

"In a place like this, he didn't have a real good split," catcher Jason Varitek said. "Without that, it's hard to rely on your breaking balls, so you're going to have to locate your fastball."

That turned out to be a problem as well, particularly when he left a 95-mile-per-hour heater over the plate with an 0-and-2 count to Vinny Castilla in the fourth. Schilling had created a mess for himself by issuing consecutive walks to Royce Clayton and Todd Helton. And Castilla capitalized by pounding the fastball for a two-run double that put the Rockies ahead to stay.

"I made about as many mistakes in a span of three hitters as you can make," Schilling said, "and it beat us."


Now, Schilling had a track record at Coors which was not stellar:

The victory came against Curt Schilling, the Red Sox ace who came into the game with a 4-3 record and 5.35 earned run average in 12 starts at Coors Field.

So the Red Sox have a pitcher with an injured ankle. His out pitch doesn't work well at this park. It's a really lousy weather night (game time temp, 48 °F). Did anyone think, "Let's have Schilling skip this start and send him against the Giants on Friday." A game at Coors is likely to be won in a slugfest anyway, and a long reliever can get hammered just as easily as a number one starter.

The good news is he threw 113 pitches and says the ankle felt better (from the same Globe article):


But Schilling said his ankle has improved considerably and attributed his struggles more to shoddy command than physical infirmity.

"It feels better and it feels stronger," he said. "That's why tonight is as disappointing as it is. As good as I felt, I just had too much trouble executing."

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM | Injuries | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2004
Game of the Day
Permalink

Tonight's game in Colorado appears to be a very important one in the Red Sox nation. Curt Schilling will test his ankle and have another MRI to see how it responded. Frankly, I'm not sure why Schilling hasn't at least skipped a start yet. From what I'm seem of foot injuries (my own and others), they heal best when you get off your feet. I appreciate that Schilling is playing through the pain, but there comes a point when two weeks off is more important than the win or two you might lose in his absence. We'll know more tomorrow.

The game also gives us a chance to see Todd Helton in action. Yes, he's helped by Coors, but he's also one of the few Rockies who can hit for power on the road as well. On top of that, he matches up well against Curt Schilling; he's 16 for 49 against Curt with five doubles and five homers.

I wonder if Helton will finish his career with the Rockies. He's in the fourth year of an 11 year contract, and at almost $14 million a year, his salary isn't out of line with his ability. Will Arte Moreno prove to be George Steinbrenner West and make a deal for the slugger?

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:41 PM | Games | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Depressed Pitcher
Permalink

Steve Bonner has a link to an interesting story about Jose Contreras and how his wife and family are unable to leave Cuba.


She said he shares his triumphs with her and confides his fears. She said they ache for each other and do not know when Cuba's Communist government will let him see her and his daughters — Naylan, 11, and Naylenis, 3 — again.

It has been like this ever since Contreras, 32, flew off to play baseball in Mexico and did not come back. The Yankees signed him to a four-year, $32 million deal last year.

Twice, she said, Cuban officials have denied her permission to leave. They are still embarrassed and angry that one of their brightest baseball hopes ran when he got the chance.

"I had an interview with the immigration authorities in Havana on April 27 and they told me I had to wait five years, until people had forgotten about Jose," she told the Daily News. "This has nothing to do with politics. I am just a housewife trying to get her family back together. But now I — and the children — have to pay for what he did."


His wife believes that their separation is effecting Jose's pitching. So I guess the Cuban government is getting what they want.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Rays of Light
Permalink

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are on a roll. They are now 9-3 in June after defeating the Padres last night. More importantly, they are no longer in last place, passing the Blue Jays for that honor.

I'd like to get excited about this; I'd like to think that the young talent is developing and Piniella is pushing them in the right direction. But looking at the stats, I'm pessimistic.

The Devil Rays biggest improvement in June is in their batter's on-base average. It's .352 in June, vs. .318 for the year. They are scoring 5.3 runs per game in June, vs. 4.2 for the year. So where is this increase coming from? Have Baldelli and Crawford learned to take a pitch? I'm afraid not.

Jose Cruz Jr. is having a terrific June, posting a .462 OBA, and he's hitting for power. The real surprise, however, is the two players right behind him in OBA. Rey Sanchez has a .459 OBA in June. Julio Lugo is at .453. The only thing that keeps Rey Sanchez from being the worst offensive player in baseball is that Rey Ordonez is in the league. Lugo is a career .331 OBA player, and his yearly averages don't stray much from that mark. So you have the best offensive player on the team having a great month, and two poor offensive players on hot streaks. The two youngsters you'd like to see leading the team, Crawford and Baldelli, have played poorly (although Baldelli has shown some power).

The other thing that disappoints me is that the streak is a lucky one. The Devil Rays have only outscored their opponents by 1 run in June; that usually translates to a .500 record. They are 5-1 in 1 & 2 run games in the month, and lost a big blowout 16-4.

I have to conclude that their is really nothing different about the Devil Rays. They're on a hot streak (and Tampa Bay fans sure deserve that), but there's no sign of a real underlying change in the intrinsic ability of the team. If I were Lou Piniella, however, I'd show Crawford and Baldelli the .352 and 5.3 stats as evidence of why they need to get on base. Without that change from their youngsters, the Rays will once again be going nowhere fast.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2004
Changed His Evil Ways
Permalink

The second good outing in a row for Johan Santana. One hundred pitches, 77 for strikes, no walks and seven strikeouts. He did give up a HR with a man on, but that was about it. Santana regaining his form will give the Twins rotation a big boost.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Anti-Contact
Permalink

A.J. Burnett seemed to be trying to avoid the White Sox bats tonight. He went six innings, walking six and striking out 2. When the Sox did make contact, however, they could not capitalize on the walks, gathering only 1 hit. The Fish lead 1-0 in the top of the 7th on Cabrerra's HR in the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Strikefest
Permalink

Jarrod Washburn and Oliver Perez are putting on a clinic on throwing strikes. Through five innings, Washburn has thrown 53 of his 74 pitches for strikes (72%), and Perez earned strikes on 61 of his 78 pitches through 6 innings (78%). Not surprisingly, it's a low scoring game, with the Angels leading 2-1 on a HR by Anderson.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
Permalink

The Chicago White Sox and the Florida Marlins are both in first place, and both seven games over .500. They meet in Miami tonight as Jon Garland faces A.J. Burnett. What's interesting is that the White Sox and Marlins come at their similar records from dissimilar amounts of luck. Based on their runs scored and allowed, the White Sox should have the best record in the American League (they should have a .610 winning percentage). The funny thing is that the White Sox have an excellent record in 1-run games, something that is usually associated with lucky teams. The Marlins, on the other hand, do have a good record in 1-run games and their record is about 2 games better than it should be. That should be good news in the long run for Chicago. For Florida, it means they may want to pay more attention to their weaknesses, such as the offensive gap at catcher. We'll see which is the luckier team tonight. :-)

Enjoy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Fastballs
Permalink

ESPN.com has an excerpt from the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, discussing the fastball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:11 PM | Books | TrackBack (0)
Three for Two
Permalink

The sports section of my local paper, The Republican, had this column by Garry Brown entitled "Pokey's the (Glove) Man." In it, Brown argues that Youkilis should be benched, Bellhorn should be playing third and Reese should be the everyday second baseman.

Before a national television audience Sunday night, Pokey Reese's performance made one thing perfectly clear: He should be the everyday second baseman for the Boston Red Sox.

Reese drew a standing ovation for his defense, but that's not his only game. He also delivered a two-run double. He's batting .264 with 24 RBIs, nice production for the last man in the lineup.

Red Sox manager Terry Francona has indicated that he wants to use a "rotation" in order to give playing time to deserving infielders. Mainly, that rotation would involve Reese and Mark Bellhorn at second base, Bellhorn and rookie Kevin Youkilis at third. Under the Francona plan, Reese also would get some time at shortstop if and when Nomar Garciaparra needs a day off.

After Sunday's game, though, it seemed obvious that Francona had his best available infield on the diamond as the Red Sox defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1. The key move was using Bellhorn at third and sending Youkilis to the bench. The kid called "You" has done an excellent job since being recalled from Triple A to replaced the disabled Bill Mueller, but the Sox likely would be better served by having both Reese and Bellhorn on the field every day.

Is that indeed the best combination for the Red Sox? Let's look at the win shares, shall we?

Through June 10BellhornYoukilisReese
Games 552155
Batting Win Shares 6.42.91.4
Fielding Win Shares 1.90.62.0
Total Win Shares 833

The two things I see from this data is that Youkilis is generating wins at twice the rate of Pokey Reese. When you're in second, 3 1/2 games back, generating wins is the most important thing to do! The second thing I see is that Reese and Bellhorn are about even in defense. Reese should be ahead due to the fact that he's been playing short most of the year, which gives you a bonus in win shares. So the fact that they're that close tells me that Bellhorn has been doing a good job at 2nd base.

Right now, the lineup that will give the Red Sox the best chance of winning has Youkilis at third and Bellhorn at 2nd. Use Pokey when Lowe pitches or as a late inning defensive replacement. But don't start him everyday just because he makes a spectacular play once in a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 AM | Defense | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
June 14, 2004
400?
Permalink

Jim Thome hit a HR tonight, which would be his 400th. However, it's raining in Philadelphia, and the game is delayed in the 3rd. If the game should be postponed (it's already the makeup of a previous rainout), Thome loses the HR. Stay tuned to see if he really got it, or if it never existed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | Sluggers | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
High Miley Pen
Permalink

The Baseball Savant takes an in-depth look at the Reds bullpen and basically likes the way Dave Miley is handling his pitchers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Ralph Wiley Dies
Permalink

Ralph Wiley has died from heart failure at age 52. I didn't always agree with Wiley, but I enjoyed the rythmn of his writing. I'll miss his work. My condolences go out to his friends and family.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM | Authors | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
The Jake's Jake
Permalink

An outstanding start by Jake Westbrook today. A nine inning, 103 pitch shutout of the Baltimore Orioles. Westbrook allowed four hits and two walks. The defense helped, as they took two of those runners off base with double plays (and with only four strikeouts, he needs the help from his defense). Sixty-seven of his 103 pitches were for strikes. Westbrook now leads the AL with a 2.70 ERA.

The Orioles, who not long ago were hanging with the Yankees and Red Sox, now find themselves 1 game ahead of Toronto and 1 1/2 ahead of the surging Devil Rays.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Drubbing
Permalink

The Indians are leading the Orioles 14-0 in the 5th. Baltimore pitchers have walked 7 batters and allowed 13 hits.

The Orioles are in a free fall this month (3-8 record so far) as their pitching hasn't improved and the offense has disappeared. After having 81 extra-base hits in May, the O's only have 23 in June entering today, and their slugging percentage is down almost 100 points compared to May.

Westbrook's ERA is down to 2.85 through five. If he continues to shut down the Orioles, he could lead the AL in ERA at the end of the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:51 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
Permalink

It's the nice combination of a pennant race and a classic pitching matchup as the Astros host the Cubs and Roger Clemens faces Mark Prior. Clemens is pitching as well as he's ever pitching in his career. He's striking out batters at a rate of 10.2 per 9 innings, 1.5 more than his career average. Clemens also gets a break, as Sammy Sosa is still rehabbing in the minors.

Prior has made two starts since returning from the DL. His first was great, doing everything right (8 K, 0 BB in six innings). His second was awful, doing everythng wrong (1 K, 5 BB in 3 2/3 innings). Keep your eye on the Berkman-Prior matchup as Lance has struck out in 10 of his 17 AB vs. Prior.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
On Stage
Permalink

If you're in the Hoboken, NJ area, you may wish to check out an evening of baseball theater. (Thanks to Darren Viola.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Other | TrackBack (0)
Seattle Slew
Permalink

Mariners Wheelhouse has been on a real roll lately. Just click over and start reading. Be sure to catch this post linking to an article on the science of baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
Cranking up the Win Shares
Permalink

The Baseball Crank has been looking at win shares as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | Statistics | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2004
Damon's Defense
Permalink

Fielding win shares have a bias toward the more difficult defensive positions. So you would expect catchers, shortstops and 2nd basemen to accumulate the most defensive win shares. So it's impressive that Johnny Damon is leading the AL in this category. I'm also impressed to see Marco Scutaro as the best middle infielder in the league.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)
Old Pitchers
Permalink

Now that win shares are sortable, I've been playing with the different columns. The first thing I noticed is how much the moniker "year of the old pitcher" really applies to this season. If you look at win shares sort by the pitch column, you'll see that the top three in the NL are Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine and Roger Clemens. Over in the AL, Curt Schilling has collected the most win shares so far, but Kenny Rogers is fourth. Glavine and Johnson had great outings today, so they're not sliding from those top spots.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Sortable Win Shares
Permalink

The good people over at the Hardball Times are doing a great job of getting interesting statistics onto the internet. I love their win shares pages (here's the AL page), but I really want to be able to sort all these columns.

Of course, it's not that hard. All you need is the proper script and you have sortable win shares!

The program to sort the AL page is here.

And here's the NL page.

Once you are there, just click on a column to sort based on that particular field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 PM | Statistics | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

David Wells returns to the mound at Yankee Stadium today as the Padres face the Javier Vazquez in the rubber game of their series. Vazquez's weakness this year is allowing HR, and it's the weakness of the Yankees staff as well. As the Beane count shows, HR alllowed is the only one of the four categories where the Yankees do not rank #1. Although SD is a also ranked high on the Beane Count, their weakness is hitting HR. Which weakness will be weaker today?

A nice battle of lefties in Toronto as Randy Johnson faces Ted Lilly. Both are 3-0 over their last three starts, but Lilly has been the dominant lefty, posting a 1.83 ERA to Johnson's 3.93.

The Giants at Baltimore is notable due to Sidney Ponson taking the mound. He has been awful over his last three starts (10.38 ERA). Can he turn it around against his former team?

The Brewers are in a good position to sweep the Astros and claim third place in the NL Central. Pete Munro will make his first start of the season for Houston, and has the daunting challenge of facing Ben Sheets. Ben threw nine 1-hit innings in the Brewers 1-0, 17 inning victory over the Angels last week. Ben continues to be effective against lefties, allowing a miserly .173 BA to them.

The Mets-Royals game is brought to you by the letter G today, as Tom Glavine faces Zack Greinke. The rookie Greinke is sporting a 1.73 ERA; he's only walked four in 26.0 innings. That seems to be his hallmark; in 150 minor league innings, he only walked 21.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Penning Victories
Permalink

The Milwaukee bullpen has been nearly unhittable in the last two games against the Astros. In seven innings, they've allowed 2 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8. And of course, no runs. A win today puts the Brew Crew ahead of the Astros.

And it's good to see the crowds coming out to support the team. Over 26,000 on Friday, over 40,000 yesterday. If you win, they will come.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 AM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Hail Cesar!
Permalink

Cesar Izturis is having an impressive 2004 campaign. Cesar's offense was non-existent during his first three major league seasons, racking up an anemic .246 BA, .270 OBA and .319 slugging percentage. This year, he's improved the on-base portion of his game by learning to hit. After his four-for-six game at Fenway, he's hitting .318 with a .352 OBA. Those are numbers any manager would be happy to have from his shortstop.

Why the improvement? A couple of weeks ago, Izturis said this (emphasis added):


"They're pitching to me now," Izturis said. "They're throwing me fastballs because they don't want me on base with those big guys coming up behind me.

"Right now I feel good at the plate, and every time I go up there I try to do the best I can, have a quality at-bat and get on base any way I can. I guess it's so far, so good."


Someone has him thinking about getting on base, rather than getting hits. Someone has him thinking about having good at bats. Is that the DePodesta influence coming through?

Of course, we really should ask ourselves if this is for real. I'd be more inclined to think so if his walk totals were going up. However, a .246 hitter has only a .007 probability (the p value) of hitting at least .318 in 239 AB. That's significant at the .01 level. My best guess is that we are seeing the maturation of a 24 year old, helped by good coaching. It's unlikely he's a .246 hitter. How could he really is remains to be seen.

Update: Since I've talked about 95% confidence intervals in the past, I thought I should include that here. For a .246 hitter, given 239 AB, we would expect that 95% of the time he would have between 46 and 72 hits. Notice, too, that if Izturis had gone 0 for 6 yesterday, he'd be batting .301, and he'd be in the 95% confidence interval. But his p value would be .03, which would be significant at the .05 level. The case for real improvement would still be strong, but not as strong as it is this morning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Players | TrackBack (0)
June 12, 2004
Pitcher Or Hitters
Permalink

Al Leiter has a no-hitter through three innings, despite some indications he's not pitching that well. Al has walked 2 in three innings, and already thrown 47 pitches, 27 strikes; not a bad percentage, but he's not dominating the strike zone. Are the Royals hitters just so bad that Al is having an easy time? The Royals are just about even vs. lefties and righties, so right now I'll credit Al's pitching, not the Royals batters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:12 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

Delayed one day, Barry Bonds makes his Camden Yards debut in the first game of a double header against the Orioles. It's also one of the better pitching matchups of the day as Dustin Hermanson faces Rodrigo Lopez. Lopez had been extremely effective out of the bullpen, allowing only 1 run in 27 1/3 innings while striking out 24. He hasn't been able to translate that effectiveness to his starts yet, posting a 6.33 ERA in games.

It will be a happy Halladay in Toronto as Roy returns to the rotation for the Blue Jays. A. Good, pitcher, will face him for the Arizona Diamondbacks. A. Good, pitcher, is making his first start of the year after 12 relief appearances. Good, a righty, is good against righties and better against lefties holding his opposite side to a .216 BA.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:55 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Angelos Accepts Washington Team
Permalink

The AP buried the lede on this story. It's not about mediocrity; it's about Angelos saying he won't put up a fight to relocate the Expos in Washington. That's good news. My guess is that it will help the Orioles more than it will hurt them, because more baseball = more baseball fans. And like they do in most cities, you schedule the two teams home stands separately. If I were in the Washington area, I'd be excited that I'd have the chance to see 162 home games in a season!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:30 PM | Team Movements | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1)
June 11, 2004
Thanks
Permalink

This blog gets a nice mention in this article about a user who only got his news from blogs for a week.

Link via Instapundit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 PM | Blogs | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rolen vs. Schmidt
Permalink

Reader Arthur Kyriazis saw this Bill Conlin article comparing Scott Rolen with Mike Schmidt and disagrees with Conlin's conclusion that Rolen, with the glove and bat, is the better third baseman. Arthur writes:

That said, I differ with him on his thesis of June 2 that Rolen is comparable to Schmidt. Mr. Conlin is correct in stating that numerically, Mr. Rolen's statistics appear, on the surface, comparable to Mr. Schmidt's. Batting Average, On base Percentage and Slugging Percentage all appear comparable to Schmidt, at the 9 year point of Rolen's career to Schmidt's. Also, Rolen this year is having a breakout year.

However, there are substantial weaknesses in the argument. Conlin notes that Rolen has substantially fewer homeruns. Rolen has 182 compared to Schmidt's 282. That may not seem like much, but that only projects to an average of 21 HRs per year, and thus if Rolen's career only last until he is 36, Rolen will only hit 324 home runs. Even if he makes it to age 40, he will only barely make it to 400 home runs, compared with Schmidt's 548, so Rolen has little or no chance at the magic 500 mark. Many 3rd baseman with comparable slugging statistics to Rolen, like Ron Santo or Darrell Evans, who have failed to get 3,000 hits or 500 home runs, have failed to enter the hall of fame later on.

A good argument. However, I disagree with Art's methodology in trying to prove this (emphasis added):

Because Rolen plays in a league where the average runs per game is 5.00 and the average home runs per game is about 1.50. He plays in a league where Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire hit 65-73 HRs per year, and have slugging averages in .600s, .700s and .800s. Rolen plays in a league where home runs come easy, runs come easy, where Coors Field and Arizona's home field and other home fields are easy to hit at, and where batting averages, slugging averages and on base percentages are inflated.

Compare that with Schmidt's era. >from 1974-88, when Schmidt played, those numbers were 4.10 runs per >game and home runs per game were about .65/ game. Schmidt would lead the league in HRs with 38, 40, 45 or 48 HRs. Now the league leader has 73, 66, 48, 70, huge numbers, numbers you didn't see in Schmidt's era. The most Home Runs hit in the NL during Schmidt's entire career was George Foster with 52 in the late 70s, and that was considered a monstrous number at the time.

To properly compare Schmidt and Rolen, you either have to multiply Rolen's numbers by 4.10/5.00 or .80 to make Rolen's numbers into 1970s/80s numbers, or you have to multiply Schmidt's numbers by 5/4.10 or about 1.25 to make them into 1990s/2003 numbers.

No. Runs are not linear in the various stats, because there are a finite number of outs. So it's not as simple as just multiplying HR or Hits by a particular factor. But we do have a simple number for comparing careers, win shares. Here's a list of the two players through age 28.

Share at AgeSchmidtRolen
2102
22129
231030
243915
252818
263529
273328
282325
Total169176

So given that Rolen was good at a younger age, he's ahead of Schmidt. But once Schmidt became great, he did a much better job of staying at a high level consistently. There's a long way to go to Rolen's career; a long way to go before we can truly say he's better than Schmidt. He'll need to put together a few seasons above 30 win shares for that to happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 PM | Players | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Three Rounds Enough?
Permalink

Bryan Johnson links to an article about how Bud Selig decided not to expand the playoff format because the 2003 post season was so good. I'm glad Bud made that decision. It's not that the playoffs are so long, but the season itself is very long. Unfortunately, the only ways to shorten the season cost people money. I really think that spring training would be find at four weeks instead of the 6 or 7 it is now. But that means fewer tourists for Arizona and Florida. MLB could easily lop a week off the season by scheduling six or seven double headers for each team during the season (this was the norm when I was young). But that costs teams that are selling out every game.

I'm not adverse to more playoff rounds. In the future, as more MLB teams are added, they will need to expand the format. What I hope is that they find a way to do that without expanding the length of the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | Post Season | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

The battle of Ohio gets underway tonight with an excellent pitching matchup. The Reds send undefeated Paul Wilson to the mound against CC Sabathia and his 2.99 ERA, 3rd in the AL. Wilson has gone four consecutive starts allowing only 1 run. In those 28 innings, he's only allowed 16 hits. Milliliter righted himself in his last outing after two poor ones, pitching seven shutout innings against the Angels.

Ivan Rodriguez plays against the team he helped lead to a World Championship as the Marlins visit the Tigers. Ivan is having another great season, posting a .391 OBA and slugging over .500. Marlins catchers, on the other hand, have only managed a .290 OBA and a .315 slugging percentage.

The St. Louis Cardinals start their interleague schedule facing the Texas Rangers. The Cardinals starting staff isn't as bad as many thought it would be, and tonight's starter Jeff Suppan sports a quite reasonable 3.57 ERA, despite the fact that he's not pitching all that well. He's not striking out batters, he's walking a bit too many, and he's already allowed 10 HR. But Jeff has been particularly impressive with men in scoring position, only allowing a .140 BA (8for 57). He'll face Juan Dominguez, who is coming off an impressive start against the NY Yankees. The righty defeated the Bronx Bombers, allowing only 1 run over eight innings while striking out five. More impressively, he allowed only 1 walk to that selective lineup. His MLB career was short and unimpressive up to that point. It will be interesting to watch which player Juan will become.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 10, 2004
Taking Tigers
Permalink

It's been an impressive turnaround for the Tigers offense this year. Last year, they posted a .300 OBA, and drew 433 walks in 162 games. They've drawn seven walks today through seven innings, and through 58 games entering this afternoon's action, they had drawn 201 walks. More importantl, their OBA is up to .351 as a team. They're sixth in the AL in OBA and 3rd in runs scored. Now, they just need their pitchers to stop allowing base on balls, and they'll be set to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:38 PM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
Permalink

The Expos at the Royals, game 1. Although many would point to this game as antithesis of what interleague play is trying to accomplish, this afternoon it provides us with one of the best pitching matchups of the day. Zach Day, with a 1.80 ERA in two day light starts this year goes against Dennys Reyes. Dennys has been a menance to opposing power hitters this year, allowing only 1 HR in 42 1/3 innings. His slugging average allowed is a measly .314 and lower than his OBA allowed (.326).

Day has done an excellent job of keeping the table setters off base this year. And it's a good thing, since the 3-6 hitters are hitting the cover off the ball. Combined, players in those slots have a .626 slugging percentage vs. Day.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Filling In
Permalink

The A's won 17-8 last night. That's 17 runs without Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Damon or Jason Giambi in the lineup. They are 7-1 since Chavez's injury, and are averaging 7.25 runs per game in that time. Once again, they are in first place in the AL West, and have the 2nd best record in the AL.

They are once again doing it without a big payroll, but they are moving up. Right now, they rank 16th in the majors in total payroll. They were 29th in 2001, 28th in 2002, and 23rd in 2003.

The interesting thing is that this idea that low salary teams can win is catching on. Look at the teams who trail the A's in salary; the Twins, the Marlins, the Reds and the Padres are all having very good seasons. And a number of other teams on that list look like they are developing into good teams. It's taken a long time, but teams have finally figured out that young talent is often as good as old talent, and a lot cheaper.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 09, 2004
Interleague DH
Permalink

I think Stephen has the right idea here. Use the DH in the NL parks, and make pitchers bat in the AL parks. It would be fun to try it one year, or maybe do it every other year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:05 PM | Games | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

It's a battle of aces at Wrigley this afternoon as Matt Morris face Mark Prior. Prior pitched six stellar innings in his return from the DL on the 4th. Morris is coming off a rough outing in which he allowed 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings and threw 120 pitches.

I'm anxious to see how Joe Kennedy fares in Yankee Stadium. As a lefty who's pretty good against righties, we'll see how well he uses the deep left center field of the Bronx ballpark to his advantage. He'll face Kevin Brown. Brown's been a six inning pitcher this year. His OBA against is about .280 innings 1-6, but it soars to .400 after that. Watch what happens when he gets over 90 pitches.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:02 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Established Win Shares
Permalink

The Baseball Crank finishes up his established win shares research with a look at the NL Central. This method shows three great teams and three horrible teams, not the tight race we're seeing today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Statistics | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Short Sheets
Permalink

Ben Sheets threw a nine-inning one hitter last night. Unfortunately for him, the teams decided to play another 8 innings as no one could score. Sheets had a game score of 90, Escobar 84 as both allowed no runs. The game went 17, when Podsednik doubled in Counsell, and Kolb pitched a perfect 17th fo the save. The Brewers struck out 26 times in the game, tying a major league record. Each of the five Angels pitchers used had at least 3 strikeouts.

It was the third 1-0 game of the night. Pedro Martinez defeated David Wells in a game that featured only 1 walks (Martinez walked Greene). And despite five walks in 6 2/3 innings, Roger Clemens and the Astros bullpen made 1 run stand up for the win against Joel Pineiro and the Mariners. Clemens is now 9-0 with a 2.08 ERA, which leads the NL. Tom Glavine, who's team was on the losing end of a 2-1 score against Minnesota, is 2nd. The Year of the Old Pitcher continues.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Games | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 08, 2004
Slugfest
Permalink

In the future, when you look slugfest up in the dictionary, you'll find the boxscore for tonight's Phillies-White Sox game. Nine home runs in total; Thome Uribe and Konkero each had 2. Thome and Thomas did not disappoint; Jim was three for five with six RBI; Frank also had three hits with four RBI, and a HR of his own. The White Sox won the power struggle 14-11.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Sheets
Permalink

Ben Sheets has not allowed a base runner through four innings against the Angels. He's struck out 3. The Brewers haven't been able to get him any runs yet, as Escobar has struck out 5 and allowed 3 hits through 4 1/3 innings.

Update: Sheets now perfect through five. Guillen hit one to the wall in centerfield, but Podsednik was able to run it down. He's thrown 63 pitches through five, so he should have more than enough left to finish this game. Still no score.

Update: The perfect game continues. Sheets got a line out, a strikeout, and another well hit ball to center. Sheets has thrown 73 pitches.

Update: With 2 out in the 7th, Guerrero swings at a bad pitch but manages to squeeze it between the shortstop and thirdbaseman for the first hit of the game. It's still 0-0 after 7. Meanwhile, in Seattle, Clemens and Pineiro are matching two hit shutouts in the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Shows
Permalink

Wow. Not even Barry Bonds could bring the fans out in Tampa Bay. Only 13,275 showed high enough interest to see if Bonds would bear them a HR. He didn't get a round tripper, but he did get on base four times and drive in 2 as San Francisco won 7-3. The Devil Rays average crowd this year is about 17,600.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | Attendance | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Hits and Walks
Permalink

A well pitched game in NY tonight, with the Yankees coming out on top 2-1 over the Rockies. Both teams collected six hits; but while the Rockies did not earn a free pass, the Yankees hitters drew five walks. And one of them was critical. Sheffield's walk in the third loaded the bases for Jason Giambi, who singled in two runs. It won't show up in the boxscore that way, but Sheffield's selectivity proved the winning difference.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Fielder's Fault?
Permalink

Why was Sidney Ponson hammered tonight? He had a decent number of strikeouts (5 in 7 IP). He only walked one and did not allow a HR. He threw strikes, 73 of 107 pitches. A performance like that should be pretty good. But he gave up 6 runs, 5 earned on 11 hits. Is the Orioles defense playing a big part in his decline? This is the third start in a row where he's been hit hard. The Orioles do have a poor DER, .678. And it gets worse when Ponson pitches, .662 coming into tonight. It may be a case of Sidney being to much in the strikezone, and his fielders not being able to back him up. Coming into tonight, his line drive percentage was below league average, so that doesn't provide evidence that he's being hit hard. I welcome comments from Orioles fans on the team's defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Shave and a Haircut
Permalink

I came across this rather new blog about the Reds, Black Shoes, Low Stirrups and a Clean Shave. I like the fact that he named his first post Wally. Stop by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Blogs | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

Something old, something new at Fenway tonight as the Padres make their first visit to Boston, but bring along David Wells. This is Boomer's first start since cutting his hand in a kitchen accident. He'll face Sox ace Pedro Martinez. Both are control artists, so don't expect many walks. Watch the Varitek Wells matchup; seven of Varitek's 13 hits off Wells have been for extra bases, giving him a .651 slugging percentage against the lefty.

The Marlins return to Cleveland in a rematch of the 1997 World Series. A great pitching matchup here as lefties Dontrelle Willis and Cliff Lee face off against each other. Lee's been wild, walking a man every other inning, but opponents have managed only three HR off him. After a rough start of May, Willis has allowed only 2 runs in his last two starts, striking out 10 and walking three in 15 IP.

Ryan Madson will make his first major league start tonight as the Phillies travel to Chicago to face the White Sox. He's been pretty unhittable this year. His .215 BA allowed is great, but his .254 OBA allowed is even better. We'll see how many pitches he gets to throw in this one. He'll face the 5-1 Mark Buehrle. Also interesting is the http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=4762 vs. Thomas matchup. Check out their career number per 162 games. Pretty close.

A good matchup of good veterans in the Twin Cities as Tom Glavine faces Brad Radke. Both have pitched well over their last three starts, earning ERAs of around two. Glavine has been equally effective home and away, posting ERAs of 2.31 in both situations, but he's been rewarded with a 5-1 record on the road, vs. 1-2 at home.

Ben Sheets takes on Kelvim Escobar in Anaheim as the Brewers visit the Angels.
Sheets missed his last start with a viral infection, so we'll how much that took out of him. Escobar has had three excellent starts in a row, allowing 5 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings.

Finally, Jung Bong makes his Cincinnati Reds debut against the Oakland A's and Barry Zito. If the game is anything like last night, there will be a lot of hits off Bong this evening.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:50 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Who is this Guy?
Permalink

Clint Nageotte threw six shutout innings against the Astros in his first major league start. Given that Houston is one of the better hitting teams in baseball, that's quite impressive. It turns out that Nageotte has had an impressive minor league career. His strikeout rates have been phenonemal at every level of the minor leagues (10.7 per 9), so it should come as no surprise that he struck out eight last night. The Astros were impressed with his slider.


Nageotte mostly used his fastball and slider, getting most of his strikeouts with the latter pitch.

"That was a great slider," Ensberg said. "It's very late breaking. The first one he threw to me came at my hip, and all of the sudden it broke. I thought it was going to hit me. I didn't think it would bite that much, but it did and it was a strike."


He's still a bit wild, walking three last night, but so was Randy Johnson at the start of his career. It will be fun to see how this pitcher develops.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 AM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Contact!
Permalink

From the boxscore, it appears that the Oakland A's were able to make plenty of contact vs. the Reds pitching staff last night. I was watching the 2nd inning. Lidle had loaded the bases on a couple of hits and a walk, then struck out two batters looking. But Hatteberg got ahead 2-1, found a pitch he could drive and hit a grand slam. In all, the A's collected 15 hits in 37 AB, but only drew three walks.

Bobby Crosby had three hits last night, and continues to improve (look at him by month here). The A's have been working on his approach to pitchers when he's got two strikes against him:


But for once, pitching was not the A's top story. There were fine nights up and down the lineup, most notably: Scott Hatteberg, who hit a grand slam and drove in a career-high five runs overall, and rookie shortstop Bobby Crosby, who had three hits, including two doubles, and scored two runs.

Beginning four days ago, in an effort to cut down his strikeouts and adjust to all the outside pitches he's seeing, Crosby has spread out his stance, and with two strikes, he's going even wider and choking up on the bat.

"It's awesome,'' Crosby said. "I don't mind two strikes now, it's fine.''


Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Permalink

Someone wrote me this morning that a comment he had left had been deleted. I've had a spam filter on the comments for a few weeks now. If you have had a comment deleted, please let me know. It would help if you could let me know the domain from which you are writing. If I find this is a problem, I'll take action to fix it. Your comments are very important to me, and I'd rather have a lot of spam than lose your thoughts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
June 07, 2004
Approaching Another Record
Permalink

As everyone watches Barry Bonds strive to reach Ruth and Aaron, he fast approaching another record. Barry pinch-hit and drew a walk today, the 2150th of his career. He's now just 40 walks behind Rickey Henderson for the all-time lead. Given that Barry has 12 base on balls in the first week of June, he should reach Rickey easily by the All-Star break. I guess that will give Henderson an even bigger incentive to try to return to the big leagues.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | Records | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
True to Form
Permalink

Through three innings tonight, Chris Carpenter has given up 1 hit, a solo HR to Patterson. Rusch is also throwing 1-hit ball through 3 1/3 innings, but hasn't allowed a run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Can't Take the Heat
Permalink

You'd think that by now teams would realize you don't start Shawn Estes in day games. :-) He just can't take the heat! He gives up five runs in the first inning, including a 3-run HR to Torrealba. That raises Estes' ERA to 5.97, 5.94 during the day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:29 PM | Games | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

It's interesting that with the start of interleague play one of the most compelling matchups of today and the next few days is the Cardinals at the Cubs. The Cardinals enter today in the Wild Card seat, and two games back of the Reds. Neither team will have their best offensive player available however, as both Sosa and Pujols are out with injuries. It's a good matchup, also, as Chris Carpenter takes his 6-1 record against the undefeated Glendon Rusch. Carpenter gives up a lot of HR (12 this year), but keeps men off base by issuing few walks. Nine of the 12 HR hit against him this year have been solo shots.

The most interesting interleague matchup pits the Cincinnati Reds vs. the Oakland A's in a rematch of the 1990 World Series. :-) It will be interesting to see how a pitch-to-contact staff does against a group of selective hitters. If you take away Oakland's walks, you're left with a poor hitting team. Will the A's change strategy and be more aggressive vs. the Reds?

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:25 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Draft Dodgers
Permalink

In looking at the first round selections in today's draft, the one that surprised me the most was Los Angeles' first pick. They took Scott Elbert, a left-handed pitcher out of high school. Now, it was my belief that DePodesta thought you didn't draft pitchers out of high school, especially in the first round. So either this pitcher is exceptional, or DePosdesta doesn't have as much control of the draft as Beane had in Oakland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:06 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1)
Interleague Play
Permalink

Interleague play kicks off today. Over the seven years it's been in effect, MLB has tinkered with the schedule to try to maintain the novelty that brought fans out to the ballpark. The system has developed into one where a team plays a different division each year, but a local rivalry always gets a home and home series (Yankees-Mets, Dodgers-Angels) if one exists. New teams come into a ballpark every year, and with the exception of the rivalry series, you get to see an opponent every six years or so. That's about the right length of time to keep these games interesting.

(I do miss, however, the predictability of the old schedules.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM | Games | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Brush with Journeyman
Permalink

Matt Treanor was recently called up by the Marlins. My good friend Jim Storer called the other day to remind me that we've been addressed by Mr. Treanor. A few years ago, when Matt was with the Portland Sea Dogs, Jim and I were sitting in the front row at Dodd Stadium enjoy the contest between the Norwich Navigators and the the Sea Dogs. It was a pefect day for a game, sunny, but not too hot. At some point in the game, a pitch got by Treanor, and with no one on base, he ran to the wall where we were sitting to collect the ball. After picking it up, he looked at us and said, "Isn't it a great day for a ballgame?" then headed back to home plate.

Sometimes I wonder why someone would stick around in the minor at age 28, but it's obvious from that exchange that Matt just loves playing the game. It's nice he finally made it to the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Draft Day
Permalink

I'm not a draft fan. Sam Ross Jr. wonders why we don't get a nationwide telecast instead of just streaming video on the web. (Aside: someday, I dare say, a streaming world wide webcast will be more valuable than an ESPN broadcast.) I have to say I agree with Lloyd McClendon on this one:


"When they get here, they're very important," McClendon said, his reference being to the Pirates' major-league roster. "Until they get here, they really don't mean much to me."

That's not to say the draft isn't important. A good drafting strategy can turn teams around rather suddenly. Long losing stretches combined with good draft picks produced the Mets of the mid-eighties, the A's of the late 80's and the Twins of today. It's also likely to keep the A's winning as various great free-agents leave.

For me, however, it would be about a group of players I know little about, most of whom will not have an immediate impact on their teams. I'll wait to see who pans out, and let the other experts in the baseball world inform me on who did a good job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Draft | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
June 06, 2004
Poor Penmanship
Permalink

Over at the raindrops, Avkash takes a look at the Mets bullpen, based on this study of the Astros pen at Baseball Prospectus. Howe and Williams are found lacking in their management of the relief staff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Strategy | TrackBack (1)
Finding Value
Permalink

Value Over Replacement Blog is a new blog on the block, written by Pirates and Orioles fans. Stop by and say hello and see what their opinion is on Jack Wilson. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 PM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
Bernie's Triple
Permalink

Mike Mussina continued to pitch well, striking out 10 over eight innings. He came out to try to get the shutout, but Rod Barajas lifted a long fly ball to the deepest part of the park. Bernie William's slowness in the outfield then came into play. He wasn't able to reach the ball, but in trying he was out of position to play the carrom off he wall. Barajas ended up with a triple, the first of his career. Rivera came in at that point, and the run scored on a groundout.

The Yankees have to start thinking about pulling Bernie late in the game for a better defender. With two outs now, Soriano singled and Fullmer has him at third with a hit and run single. A speedy CF and the Yankees have this game won 2-0.

Update: Rivera got a groundball to end the game and give the Yankees the victory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:18 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ronald Reagan Story
Permalink

My sympathy and condolences go out to the Reagan family and all who loved and respected him the world over. Both my parents workd for General Electric in Bridgeport in the 1950's, when Reagan was the GE spokesman. He toured the factory, and dad got to shake his hand. My mother got to escort him from her office to the executive suite. The story is she took him up a grimy stairwell (it was a grimy factory) because the passenger elevator was out. Her supervisor was upset by this (she said my mom should have used the freight elevator), but Reagan didn't care. Mom said he was very polite and understanding about the whole situation. It was their brush with greatness.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:47 PM | Other | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Moose Call
Permalink

The real Mike Mussina appears to be on the mound in NY today. Through five innings, he's thrown 53 pitches, 37 for strikes. Mussina has been averaging 100 pitches over six innings in his first 12 starts. He's been much more efficient today, getting his pitches over, leading to seven K and no walks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:11 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Transformation
Permalink

Ken Griffey hit his 16th HR of the year today, the 497th of his career. This is Griffey's 53rd game of the year, matching the number of games he played in his injury plagued 2003 season. His stats are very similar to last year, and it's becoming clear he's lost a dimension of his offensive game; he's not getting as many hits as he used to. Is this serious? He still hits for power; 28 of his 48 hits have been for extra bases. He still draws walks. But his OBA and his batting average are down. He's still valuable, but he's not the great player he once was. However, if you had to lose one dimension of your game, the ability to hit singles isn't a bad one to go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:03 PM | Sluggers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
Permalink

The Marlins and Mets feature the best matchup of the day. Brad Penny will try to be pretty against the Mets Al Leiter. Both have sub-2.50 ERAs. Penny has been able to covert his ERA into a 6-2 record, while Leiter has only one win to show for his excellent efforts. Leiter has been very effective in his three starts at Shea, allowing only 2 runs in 20 1/3 innings. He's also yet to allow an extra-base hit to a lefty batter this year.

One thing that's been working in Penny's favor is that he's allowing a low number of line drives. 16.7 Percent of his balls in plays have been labled liners, vs. 18.4% for the NL. He appears to be fooling batters, so they're not hitting the ball hard.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Pitch Counts
Permalink

Will Carroll hits the big time and discusses pitch counts over at MLB.com.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Injuries | TrackBack (0)
June 05, 2004
Games of the Day
Permalink

It's an NL Central day. The creeping Cardinals are now 1 game out of first, and try to send the Astros into a deeper hole as Jason Marquis faces Tim Redding. In Chicago, the Pirates try to continue their domination of the Cubs. They were able to hold on long enough to get Prior out of the game yesterday (nice comeback), and they'll try again today as Benson faces Zambrano. The Cubs have fallen behind the Brewers and are only two games in front of the Pirates.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 AM | Games | TrackBack (0)
June 04, 2004
Games of the Day
Permalink

Two returns today for your enjoyment. Mark Prior comes off the DL just when the Cubs need him most. He'll pitch against Josh Fogg and the Pirates at Wrigley. And Alfonso Soriano returns to the Big Apple as the Rangers visit the Yankees. Be there, aloha.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:12 PM | Games | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
More Perfection
Permalink

Keith Emmer at NY Sports Express examines why there have been an increasing number of perfect games.


The truth is, a perfect game is more of a statistical anomaly than the mark of a great pitcher. Which is why when the commentators are saying expansion is a prime factor in the recent run of perfect games, they may be right—but for the wrong reasons. In 1904 there were 16 teams in the two leagues; a full season had 1,232 games. In 2004 there are 30 teams; they play 2,430 games in total. With twice as many games, there are twice as many chances for a perfect one. The simplest answer is sometimes the perfect one.

The more opportunities, the more likely an unlikely event will happen. I'd also hazard that two other factors have a big impact. Error rates for fielders have been steadily decreasing since the early part of the 20th century. If the chance of an error decreases, the chance for a perfect game increases. Also, strikeout rates have been rising. The more batters strike out, the less chance that a ball in play will go for a hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:06 PM | Feats | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 03, 2004
'Stros Opinions
Permalink

Long time reader Lisa Gray has started writing about the Astros at Most Valuable Network. Check out her thoughts on Houston baseball and the major leagues in general.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
Yanking Johan
Permalink

Johan Santana, one of the good young pitchers to emerge last year, had another poor outing today. He struck out 7 in 7 2/3 innings, and his K numbers remain good. He walked four, and his walks are up from last year, but not much (2.6 vs 3.0). What killed him again today is the HR ball. Huff yanked a three run shot, the 12th Santana has allowed in 2004. He gave up 17 in 158 1/3 innings last year. What's worse, 8 of the 12 have come with men on base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Pitchers | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
More Bunting
Permalink

Joe Torre just had Jeter bunt Crosby over to 2nd in the bottom of the first. Michael Kay appears to agree with my position on this.

Update: The Yankees play for one run, and get one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:22 PM | Strategy | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
Permalink

Welcome back A.J. Burnett. He'll try out his reconstructed elbow today against the NY Mets this evening at Shea. The Mets are at .500 and trail Florida by 3 1/2 games. A four game series with the Fish is a great opportunity for the New Yorkers to gain ground. The Mets will send Jae Weong Seo to the mound; he strikes out few batters but walks even more. He's been really miserable at Shea Stadium this year, allowing a .349 BA and a .524 slugging percentage there. My guess is that this game will be decided by the bullpens.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 AM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Let's Not Bid on Vlad
Permalink

Just how smart was Arte Moreno? Just how dumb were the rest of the owners? There should have been a bidding war for his talent, if for no other reason that to assure the team that got him paid for it. But no, he might be hurt, we really don't have the money. So the Angels got a $20 million ballplayer for $14 million a year, leaving them extra money to put some good, young cheap talent on their roster. Moreno saw an opportunity to buy low, when everyone else just saw something they couldn't afford. But the reality is that any major league team could have had Guerrero for no more than $16 million, and that would still be a bargain.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM | Free Agents | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Best of the Best
Permalink

As I look at the standings this morning, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. Now given the team Cashman and Co. have assembled, this shouldn't be a surprise. But consider this:


  • Derek Jeter hasn't hit this season.

  • Bernie Williams hasn't hit this season.

  • Sheffield hasn't hit for power this season.

  • Mike Mussina has been awful.

  • Contreras has been awful.

  • Giambi's been on the DL.

  • They have gotten nothing from second base.


Despite all that, they are tied with the Red Sox for the league lead in runs scored with 289. I find that a bit scary. Three of their best hitters in slumps, and they are at the top of the league in runs scored. And it looks like Jeter and Sheffield are starting to hit again. Giambi comes off the DL on Sunday. Matsui is playing more like he used to in Japan. A-Rod is A-Rod. Posada just keeps getting on base. If they can score like this with their offense not hitting on all cyliners, what are they going to be like when everything is in place? What if Mussina regains his form? It's doubtful that even the return of Nomar and Nixon will be enough to overcome this juggernaught.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (25) | TrackBack (0)
June 02, 2004
More Fun With Simulations
Permalink

This post from yesterday elicited requests for a better simulation. That's something I wanted to do also. So with the new simulation, you the user are able to set the number of teams, the number of games teams play against each other, and whether random intrinsic winning percentages are assigned (if not, every team is intrinsically .500). Just fill the the form and click enter. If you leave everything blank, you'll get the same simulation as yesterday.

Number of Teams:
Games vs. each team:
Assign random winning percentages
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Standings | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Don't Hit Dontrelle
Permalink

Dontrelle Willis is perfect through four innings. He's thrown 50 pitches, 36 for strikes. He many need to continue to pitch that well, as Lidle has only allowed three singles and a walk, and removed one of those runners with a caught stealing.

Update: Fifteen up, fifteen down. A nine pitch fifth for Dontrelle.

Update: Rookie catcher Matt Treanor singles and scores in the fifth. This is turning out to be a pretty good day for his debut. He's calling a perfect game and so far has scored the go-ahead run.

Update: Sean Casey, with 2 out in the 7th, lines a single to left to end the perfect game. Willis gets a standing ovation from the fans. With a 1-0 lead, he needs to continue to pitch well to get the win.

Update: That's six inning in the book. He struck out the first two batters, battling back from an 2-0 count on Valentin to catch Javier looking on a low strike. The Lidle, the pitcher, hit a hard line drive but right at Lowell. Seventy two pitcher for Dontrelle through six, 50 strikes. You have to love those numbers.

Update: Reds tie it on a single by Jimenez, though Griffey is thrown out trying to go to third. It's 1-1 going to the bottom of the 7th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:58 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Florida Backstop
Permalink

Matt Treanor, a 28 year-old catcher, is making his major league debut for the Marlins today, answering the question about who would be the solution to the Fish's backstop problems.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | Defense | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

Lots of action today, no matter what time zone you are in. Early games, late game, you should pretty much be able to see action from noon eastern well past midnight. It's the sort of day, that if I lived on the West Coast, I'd be tempted to call in sick and enjoy games breakfast to bed.

Lots of good pitching matchups, starting the the alphabetical order game, as Roger Clemens starts in Wrigley against Matt Clement. And that last letter is about all that separates the two this year. Both are striking out batters at a high rate (Clemens 10.6 per 9, Clement 9.0 per nine). They've each walked about 25 batters, and have a difference of 1 in HR allowed (Clemens 5, Clement 4).

There's a battle of Marks in Oakland as the White Sox send Buehrle against agent Mulder. We'll get a look at how the A's are going to deal with Chavez's injury, at least short term.

A battle of lefties in Philadelphia tonight as Tom Glavine faces Randy Wolf. Despite his 2-3 record, Wolf has been the Phillies most effective starter this year, posting a 2.98 ERA. He hasn't been able to go deep in many games, however, leaving decisions to the Philly bullpen. The Phillies are 5-4 overall in Wolf's starts.

For those of you out west, see if Jarrod Washburn's run support of 8.91 runs per 9 IP (2nd in the AL to Mark Buehrle), can hold up against the pitching of Pedro Martinez as the Red Sox continue their series with the Angels.

Coast to coast, noon to midnight, enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
I Don't Know's on Third
Permalink

Eric Chavez has a broken hand.


"It's broken," the three-time Gold Glove third baseman said late Tuesday as he walked back into the Oakland Coliseum after getting X-rays at a hospital.

Chavez left the Athletics' 6-4, 12-inning win over the Chicago White Sox in the 11th after getting hit near his wrist by a pitch from Damaso Marte.

It was uncertain how long Chavez will be out.


I always worry about wrist injuries. They seem to disrupt hitters more than any other. Even when they have healed, it takes a while for a player to get his stroke back.

So who is going to replace him? The A's AAA team has a third baseman named Adam Morrissey, (acquired from the Cubs for Mark Bellhorn),but he's listed as temporarily inactive. His numbers are good, and it's seems like the choice, but I can't find out why he was put on the inactive list on May 28th. Mark Tehan is tearing up the Texas League. I guess it's nice to have a deep farm system.

It's always tough to lose your best offensive player. Unlike the Red Sox, the A's don't have a lot to fall back on. I'm excited to see how Beane deals with this situation.

Update: Leonard in the comments below gives the reason for Morrissey's inactivity:


Regarding Adam Morrissey - From the Sacramento Bee, May 28 :-


Woe, Canada - The River Cats will be without Morrissey, their second-leading hitter, for the four-game series at Edmonton that begins tonight because of what the team called "paperwork issues" with his passport.

A regular starter at second and third base, the native of Australia is expected to stay in Sacramento and work out while the River Cats make their only Canada trip of the year. He is scheduled to rejoin the team Tuesday to complete the trip with four games at Tacoma.

So I guess he's free to join the A's anytime.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 AM | Injuries | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2004
Luck Demonstration
Permalink

I recently wrote this post about how, after about 45 games, we really couldn't tell if teams were good, bad or unlucky. Just to give you an interactive demonstration, I wrote a script to simulate a 45 game stretch. There are sixteen teams, and each team plays the other 15 three times. In each case, teams have an equal chance of winning. Hit the refesh button to run it over and over and see how, even equally matched, the standings spread out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM | Standings | Comments (9) | TrackBack (1)
Catching On
Permalink

The Marlins are a bit short behind the plate tonight. With Mike Redmond injured, Ramon Castro went down in the 2nd. Mike Mordecai has taken over behind the plate, the 2nd time he's been called upon to catch in his major league career. He's done a good job; as the announcers observed, they haven't had to comment on the job he's doing, so Mike's getting it done. There have been a couple of stolen bases against him, but the one I saw, the throw from Mike was real close. The real question, what are the Marlins going to do long term if both Redmond and Castro are injured?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)
Bunting in the First
Permalink

In the top of the first of the Houston-Chicago game, Biggio got on when he was hit by the pitch. Jimy Williams then has Adam Everett sacrifice. I don't understand that. Sacrificing in the first inning makes sense if you believe one of the following:


  • It's going to be a low scoring game.

  • The opposing pitcher is extremely good.

  • You think your offense if really bad.


I'd have to say none of these are true. Houston is 2nd in runs scored, so the offense is pretty good, especially the three guys coming up behind Everett. The opposing pitcher is Glendon Rusch, and he's pitching on short rest. The game is being played at Wrigley Field, and the wind is blowing out. (There have been five HR in the game so far.)

So Bagwell followed the sac with a HR, which would have scored Biggio from first as easily as from second. Williams blew the chance of Everett getting on base, in which case Bagwell might have had a three-run HR, and the Astros would have the lead right now, instead of a 3-3 tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM | Strategy | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Tough as Nails
Permalink

I was watching the Cardianls-Pirates game in the first inning when I saw Scott Rolen take one in the helmet. Vogelsong got him square in the Cardinal logo with a fast ball. It sounded awful, and my reaction brought my wife Marilyn into the room to see what had happened. To my amazement, Rolen never went down, and walked down to first base as if nothing was wrong. He later came around to score, but did not go out to take his position in the bottom of the first. I don't know if there is anything wrong, or if the Cardinals were just being cautious. But the fact that he walked to first proves that either these helmets are extremely well made, or Rolen is one of the toughest ballplayers around.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
Permalink

The best pitching matchup of the day is in Cleveland, where Ryan Drese leads the resurgent Texas pitching staff against Milliliter Sabathia and the up and down Indians. Cleveland is on a four game winning streak right now and is coming off a sweep of the A's in which they outscored Oakland by four runs. Watch for the Soriano-Sabathia matchup; Alfonso is 5 for 15 with 2 HR vs. CC in his career.

The Reds and the Marlins are proving to be very entertaining. Yesterday's back and forth slugfest was a good example. Aaron Harang and Brad Penny will try to have the pitching dominate today. Penny, with his 6-2 record and 2.12 ERA has jumped ahead of Beckett and Willis as ace of the staff. He's doing a great job against the table setters in the opposing lineups, keeping them off base for the power hitters. Opponent 1-2 hitters are 9 for 59 vs. Penny with five walks.

Finally, the Giants try to extend their winning streak to 11. The Diamondbacks will send Steve Sparks to the mound against Dustin Hermanson to try to stop them. Hermanson has allowed 5 earned runs in his last 18 innings. However, he has not gone deep in those last three games, so look for Alou to use the bullpen early and often.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)
Brenly On the Block
Permalink

The vultures are starting to circle around Bob Brenly:


Naturally, there is great confusion in the air. The Diamondbacks just concluded their worst May in team history. Fans don't know what to make of this minor league outfit wearing major league uniforms and aren't sure whether to pity or blame manager Bob Brenly, who showed up for work Monday without sleeping the night before.

It was not the best time to ask if his job was in jeopardy.

"For crying out loud, my job is to help the team win (games) in any way I can," Brenly said. "If the team doesn't win ballgames, then everybody can draw their own conclusions. I'm not worried about it. I'm going about my business the same way I always have, and I'm quite honestly getting tired of answering all those questions."


One question I wished they had asked him was what makes him think Casey Daigle is a major league pitcher. They have given 10 starts to a pitcher who doesn't strike batters out, walks a ton of them, and gives up lots of HR. He has a 7.16 ERA and averages less than five innings per start. Maybe he's young and he needs more time in the minors. Maybe the DBacks farm system has no one else. But right now, he's almost an automatic loss being sent out every fifth day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Join the Buzz
Permalink

Jeff Jarvis is looking for your help in a worthy, bi-partisan cause.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Other | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)