Love this kind of split. That's really interesting psychologically.

Since 7/1 Rivera has ERA ~ 3.3, 15 H in 14 IP - not bad numbers but not good enough. He' s 38 and has back spasms - apparently the hit he gave up yesterday was on a 89mph cutter. No knock on Rivera because he is the best of his time but NYY has him locked up for 2?3? more yrs without an established set up guy or a potential backup.

Hmmm...I have to question some of this. According to baseball-reference.com, the lifetime split is much less dramatic--a 1.90 ERA in save situations, 2.53 in non-save. Granted unearned runs widen the gap a bit, but that doesn't bring it close to the split you have. if you take out 1995 (when he mostly started, had only one save opp and which nudges his ERA in non-save up by about .06) and this year, the split is only 1.97/2.43. Clear, but in both cases we're clearly talking about a top-notch pitcher. Moreover, when you consider that a non-save situation generally affords more possibility for giving up runs (since in many cases multiple runs won't end the game, thus there is a higher cap on how many runs can be given up), it doesn't take a lot of outings to push that ERA up. And once you take all of that into account, the lifetime numbers simply reflect the unusual distribution of Rivera's poor efforts this season.

Frankly, this seems to be a conventional wisdom myth that seems right on the surface and even with a cursory investigation, but really evaporates upon closer scrutiny.

Devon, since Rivera became a "one-pitch" closer back in the late 90s, the so-called experts, as well as fans of teams not named the Yankees, were first predicting a short career for Rivera, and then a rapid demise. Every year, people predicted the end when he would blow a save or two. It was "over" for him last year when he got off to a slow start, yet everyone ignored his strong finish. Well, that is every one who wants to believe he's done. Guess again. You're the lastest, using stats from July 1 on. Good heavens!

Nobodies saying it's over (and I never heard anyone predict it was going to be) Mike but it looks like he's wearing down right when they dumped his set up guy and the fill ins are going south. Ramirez has given up 8ER in his last 4 outings, Veras gave up 2 runs Sat and Marte has a 9 ERA with NYY. I don't think the save non-save split is too relevant right now. I think what is important is in the next 6+ weeks NYY needs the 0.00 ERA Rivera and not the 3.28 ERA Rivera and if he's hurt they're screwed. Maybe he's going to bounce back but my guess is he's hurting and they're going to have to limit his innings and if those other guys can't do the job they're going to be looking at a long unhappy winer in NY.