Baseball merchandise is flying off the shelves:

Gross retail sales of licensed products are up by almost 100 percent in the first part of the year compared to the same period last season, according to Tim Brosnan, executive vice president of business for Major League Baseball.

"It's in part due to the fact that we had fans with a lot of pent up desire, supporting a team that hadn't won the World Series in 86 years," said Bob DuPuy, baseball's president and chief operating officer, referring to the Boston Red Sox.

According to SportsScanINFO, a retail tracking firm, licensed headwear is up 79 percent, with the New York Yankees and Red Sox making up 53 percent of total licensed merchandise sales.

At this time last year, Red Sox gear made up 12 percent of all merchandise sold. This year, that number has jumped to 21 percent, said Neil Schwartz, SportsScanINFO's director of marketing.

This is another example that the steroid scandal isn't really resonating with fans. It's a good story to sell newspapers and garner votes, but your average baseball fan just wants to see his or her team win.

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While the Angels appear to have options at third to replace their departed hot corner slugger, Jon Weisman isn't happy with the other LA team's choices to replace the north bound Beltre. He's also not happy with the changes to Choi.

Henson also passed along a third item, which is that the Dodgers have convinced Hee Seop Choi to try to hit home runs. In this Spring Training, I've read about two things that go directly against baseball lessons I've been taught for years: a player (Eric Gagne) purposely altering his mechanics as he comes back from an injury and a player trying to hit home runs instead of line drives (that will become home runs).

I don't think there's anything wrong with Choi that a full season in one place won't cure. He'll hit home runs. Just play him every day.

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Dallas McPherson will not start the season with the LA Angels.

The Angels thought enough of McPherson to allow power-hitting Troy Glaus to sign a free-agent contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks during the offseason. But McPherson has been limited this spring by a protruding disk in his lower back.

Robb Quinlan will get the starting job instead. He has excellent minor league numbers and has done well with the bat at the major league level in limited playing time. It looks like the Angels will okay at third base no matter whom they start.

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The Orioles and Nationals (MLB) have reached a deal for co-ownership of a regional sports network. The Orioles ownership will be guaranteed $365 million if they sell the team as part of the settlement. At the moment, no Nationals games are scheduled for local cable broadcast. I assume that can change. Seventy games are scheduled for over the air viewing.

Correction: It's $365 million.

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Wil Leitch has published his annual predictions for the baseball season at Black Table. Always a fun read.

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Firebrand of the American League has moved. Please adjust your bookmarks.

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Today marks the end of the March Pledge Drive. So far 165 readers have donated over $2400. I want to thank every one of you from the bottom of my heart.

It's been a great month working on this site. While I've always had interesting jobs, I've never had more fun working on anything. And the response has been tremendous. The feedback I've recieved on the Probabilistic Model of Range, Day by Day Database, and Range Charts tell me that there is a real desire to see this kind of work continue.

If you agree, please consider a donation. As it turns out, if every unique visitor to this site had left $1 Baseball Musings could run full out for two years. Traffic has grown enough that if everyone who visits today donated $10, this is a full time job for a year. So if you've been waiting for the last minute, now's your chance. Amazon is working again and PayPal is always there. Thanks again to all who support this site, both with donations and with your visits.

My daughter is an American idol fan, and I just found out Ozzie Smith's son is in the competition.

Idol does have a problem that was very obvious tonight. I caught the end when they announced the singer being voted off the island. The judges agreed neither of these singers should be at the bottom of the vote. They need a different voting system. Right now, I would guess the voting gets distributed pretty evenly between the contestants. But if they used something similar to the MVP voting in baseball, they would end up with a better ranking. In a popularity contest like this, the consensus 2nd choice would likely be first, and the poorest singer would likely end up on the bottom. It shouldn't be too difficult to implement over the phone, and it would likely prevent a result like tonight's from happening.

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Rock'em Schnockem reports on the release of Brooks Kieschnick. He thinks San Francisco could use a player who could go both ways. :-)

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Baseball approved Lewis Wolff as the new owner of the Athletics today. I can't believe how little the franchise is worth:

The A's, who planned a news conference back in Oakland in the next couple of days to formally introduce Wolff as the new owner, hoped to have everything complete by Monday's season opener in Baltimore.

Wolff, the team's vice president for venue development, and his group are paying about $180 million to purchase the team from Steve Schott and Ken Hofmann, co-owners since jointly buying the A's in 1995.

As Schott and Hoffmann paid $90 million for the team in 1995, that's a pretty good ten year return on investment. I think $180 million is a steal for a team of this caliber.

Mr. Wolff will continue the tradition started by the Haas family of having double letters in the owner's last name.

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Somehow, this doesn't seem to be the right year for honoring Gaylord Perry.

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Ben Grieve was demoted by the Pittsburgh Pirates today. It's amazing to me that the Pirates can't find a place for a hitter who's never had an OBA under .353. Maybe the Nationals will pick him up and use him to lead off.

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Endy Chavez will start the season in AAA. Frank Robinson and the Nationals tried to get Endy to get on base more so he could serve as the team's leadoff hitter. It didn't happen, so Chavez has lost his spot on the big league club.

Ryan Church will take over the centerfield duties for the Nationals. Church has a career .379 OBA in the minor leagues, but it's not clear that Ryan will be the opening day leadoff man.

Leadoff duty, though, may fall to Brad Wilkerson, who hit first 107 times in 2004, most on the team. Wilkerson, who also can play center, slugged 32 homers but drove in just 67 runs last year. He hit fifth for most of the spring -- and hit a homer from that spot Tuesday night -- and would like to remain lower in the order so he could drive in more runs.

My feeling is to give Church a chance and see if his power develops. If he winds up being a better long-ball hitter than Wilkerson, swap them in the lineup.

Correction: Changed Expos to Nationals. Old habits die hard.

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It looks like the Amazon Honor System is working again. There's a four week maximum allowed, but I just received one donation, so there's some room to donate. PayPal still works also.

Once again, thanks to every who has donated so far. I'll sum up the drive once March is over, so get your donations in before the end of tomorrow!

It looks like the Boston Red Sox have found a place to dump Byung-Hyun Kim. The Rockies will take him in a trade for cash and an unnamed minor leaguer. This fills the Rockies need for a closer and the Red Sox need to open up a roster spot and rid themselves of an unpopular player.

I wonder what it must be like for a pitcher to be told he's being traded to Colorado. Something like this, I suppose. :-) For his career, Kim has a pretty normal ground out to air out ratio. He'll give up more HR in Coors, but everyone does. The question is will he be able to strike out batters. Because the ball doesn't break as much in Denver, it's tougher to fool batters with curve balls. Maybe the unusual delivery will compensate for that.

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The New York Times has found errors and exaggerations in Dr. Elliot Pellman's resume. Dr. Pellman is the medical adviser for Major League Baseball and testified before the house committee two weeks ago. I found him one of the more interesting witnesses.

It's another case of baseball not being careful with what it sent to Congress. As much as I was against the hearings, they did serve a useful purpose in exposing the fine language. Whether is was baseball's intention or not, it sure looked like they were sticking a loophole in the contract. Now, the one person they send to testify on their behalf, who came across as reasonable and credible to me, has his integrity called into question. It wasn't a good day for building trust on the part of the lords of baseball.

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The Marlins had a legislative committee approve a $60 million tax break to help them build a new stadium. It's a kick-back on new revenue the stadium will supposedly generate. It's not clear from the article what happens if the new revenue doesn't come in.

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Andres Galarraga has retired. He ends his career with 399 home runs. Interestingly, not reaching 400 home runs might turn out to be good for his memory. People still talk about Al Kaline coming up one short; in 30 years they'll still be talking about Andres quitting with class rather than hanging on trying to get to the round number.

Looking at the numbers, it's amazing how Colorado turned around his career. Andres looked done at age 31. He had a season in St. Louis that would have been poor for a shortstop. A combination of thin air, Don Baylor and the league explosion in offense made Andres a dangerous power hitter. Through 1992, he had hit 116 HR and averaged 1 HR every 29.4 AB. Since, he hit 283 HR and averaged 1 HR every 16.6 AB.

He'll be remembered, too, for his battle with cancer and his comeback from that disease. Every time you thought he was done, he managed to work his way back. Good luck to him in his retirement.

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The Cubdom has an excellent post analyzing the Cubs lineup. I especially like his color-coded batting slots for each hitter.

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Sabernomics has developed a new system to predict batting statistics. The interesting thing is that it's simply based on the players' previous season stats. For what he's tried so far, it does a pretty good job.

Unfortunately, Sabernomics hasn't posted the formulas, so the system is difficult to evaluate. Still it's more that worth a look. Since at the moment, I have time, if Sabernomics wants to send me the formula, I'll be happy to test it on a bigger set of data.

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The Brewers sent down three today, including the tragic poet of MTV, Corey Hart. More importantly, however; what does Prince Fielder have to do to make a major league roster? He had a fine spring and he's hit well everywhere in the minor leagues. If you have both Overbay and Fielder clogging up first base, wouldn't it be wise to trade one for something you need? Wouldn't you love to see Fielder punching holes through the roof of Tropicana Field. Or Fielder and Pickering making Kaufmann Stadium tilt when they sit in the dugout together? Prince should be pounding balls out of a major league stadium somewhere.

That, of course, is the problem with starting your career at the offensive end of the defensive spectrum. You can play first or DH, or stay at AAA.

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A nice analysis of the Yankees rotation over at Bronx Banter. It looks like the Yankees are another team that starting to think about four man rotations. The Yankees are using days off in April to not start Jaret Wright until April 15th. In general, I believe more teams should take advantage of days off to skip the fifth starter as often as possible. He should really be a swing man, long relief/starter. That way, you can carry one less pitcher and diversify your hitting/fielding bench with another player.

The other thing that struck me in Alex's piece was the bit about Mussina:

If there's any concern it's that Mike Mussina is still giving up too many hits and getting too few strike outs (19 IP, 26 H, 8 K), resulting in a 4.74 spring ERA. He has being stingy with his walks (just 3) and homers (1), which is a good sign, and word is he's rounding in to shape as spring training draws to a close. Still, 2004 was the first time since 1996 that Mussina gave up significantly more hits than innings pitched, and his K-rate last year was his lowest since 1995. These are things to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Mussina is 36 and had his first real arm trouble last year, dropping below 200 innings in a non-strike year for the first time since his junior season of 1993. I'm a big fan of Mussina's and he's obviously crucial to the Yankees run at their eighth-straight division title, but these are not good signs.

I was thinking "right-handed David Wells" as I read that. That's not bad, but it's not Mike Mussina.

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The writers of Faith and Fear in Flushing were looking for a reason to be upset with the Mets lineup that has David Wright batting 8th. They found one.

"Experience-wise, too. It will be his first full season..."

Ah. Here's the outrage.

I mean, is this a baseball team or a frat initiation? Wright is straight outta Boys' Life -- it's not like he's a bad seed who needs to be put in his place. If this is about Mike Cameron's psyche, as the Daily News suggested, I don't want to hear it -- Mike Cameron is a fabulously well-paid adult, and Wright shouldn't be punished for being a team guy. And Randolph and Down's Yankee teams won because they worked counts, wore out pitchers and played solid situational baseball -- not because Jeter and Rivera were fetching Gatorade for veterans. If they aren't clear on this point, I've overestimated them.

Wright's minor league numbers suggest he'd be a better top of the order hitter than either Matsui or Reyes. I'm willing to give Reyes the benefit of the doubt because at his age anything is possible. I'm not impressed at all with Matsui as a hitter; Reyes-Wright 1-2 is much better than the two middle infielders setting the table. Randolph can base the switching of Kaz and David in the lineup based on their spring training numbers. If it doesn't work out, he can always make a change.

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The Baseball Crank uses Established Win Share Levels to look at the NL West race. He has the Giants coming out on top with Bonds, 2nd to the Padres with Bonds gone for 1/2 a season or more. I like San Diego and the Dodgers this season; I think Bonds' injury is only the tip of the iceberg for the geezers by the bay.

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New research shows that Cuban baseball has less competitive balance than the major leagues:

"The organization of baseball in Cuba offers a stark contrast to that of baseball in the U.S.," said Katie Baird, an economist at the University of Washington, Tacoma, and author of the new study on Cuban baseball. "Cuba's system makes a great case study of how organizing sports through non-market rules has unintended consequences."

It's an interesting study. It also strikes me the Cuban government can easily solve the competitive imbalance problem by simply moving around players. Just force top teams to trade a good player to a lower ranked team. The fans may not like it, but you don't complain much if you can be taken out and shot.

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The Boston Herald continues its series on the state of baseball with a look at the aging of players:

Take a guess how many of today's major leaguers are under 21?

Zero, that's how many.

The 40-year-old baseball player was once a genuine oddity. It's still not as if the majors are teeming with geezers today, it's just that they're getting more attention. Forty-year-old Barry Bonds is the defending National League batting champion. Roger Clemens, at age 42, led the NL in winning percentage last year with an 18-4 record. And then there's that absolute freak of nature, Braves first baseman Julio Franco, who hit .306 last season. Franco celebrated his 46th birthday last August.

Sometimes, however, perceptions don't reflect reality. The Lahman database has enough information to create charts of age for the major leagues. Plotted below are the average age of batters, weighted by plate appearances, and the average age of pitchers, weighted by innings pitched. Click on each graph to get a larger view.

Indeed, the trend in age is up. It's also pretty clear that the money generated by free agency is a big reason. There was a huge dip from around 1950 to 1970 in age. During that time, the owners cemented their grip on the players with the reserve clause and the amateur draft. Unless you were a superstar, there was no reason to stay in baseball into your late 30s. The start of the trend up corresponds to the free agent era. From the article:

There are good and plentiful reasons why today's players hang around, or try to, longer than their counterparts of yesteryear. For one thing, superior conditioning methods (and in some cases, chemical enhancement) mean that they can linger. For another, modern-day salaries offer an irresistable inducement. A few generations back, a 35-year-old future Hall of Famer could make more money selling cars, with less risk of embarrassment, than he might have with another year's baseball salary. Moreover, in today's free-spending baseball world, the only way some teams can sign free agents is by offering long-term, multi-year, guaranteed contracts likely to extend well beyond the useful shelf life of the player.

One thing many have noticed about the numbers generated by the probabilistic model of range is that it was a below average year for baseball in general. Could part of this be having older players taking the field? If not for the anomaly of World War II, 2004 would have had the oldest batters (and position players) in the history of baseball. I have to believe that's hurting defense.

As I think about a number of teams this season, I'm struck by how old they are getting. The Giants, Yankees and Red Sox look especially long in the tooth to me. Last year was the year of the old player. Will this be the year that age catches up to them?

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The New York Times has a very interesting article about a ticket found in an auctioned book that led to the discovery Jim Thorpe having a basketball career. Thorpe was the model for the multi-sport athlete, having success in baseball, football, track and field and now basketball. Don't miss the slideshow that's connected to the story.

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NPR's Morning edition had an interview with Tony La Russa and Buzz Bissinger, the author of the new book Three Nights. Three Nights explores the managing style of La Russa. At the web page for the story you can hear the interview as well as listen to excerpts that didn't make air. There's also a powerful excerpt from the book about the death of Darryl Kile.

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Bob Melvin has decided to go with his two younger catchers, Hill and Snyder. This leaves Kelly Stinnett with to decide if he wants to play at AAA or try to catch on with another club.

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Tony Armas Jr. has gone on the 15 Day DL with a groin pull.

The injury, suffered during the first inning of Sunday's game against the New York Mets, is described as a grade 1 pull, the least severe of three levels. Still, the injury is extremely disappointing for Armas, who has now spent time on the disabled list in four straight seasons. In May 2003, he underwent shoulder surgery, and this spring was the first time since then that his arm felt good.

This reminds me of a Mike Barnicle column from the Boston Globe in the mid 1980's. Mike was providing a preview of the Red Sox season, and one thing he looked forward to was the Tony Armas Memorial Groin Pull. Unfortunately, I can't find it on-line, so I'll have to trust my memory.

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Andruw Jones credits his spring power boost to going back to his minor league stance:

After hitting 29 homers last season, his fewest since 1999, Jones spent part of the offseason watching film of when he played in the minor leagues. He noticed that his feet were closer together in the batter's box.

So, when camp opened, Jones widened his stance and the result has been baseballs sailing higher and farther than ever before.

Mays was the one who first approached Jones about widening his base, which allows him to stay back on the ball and cover more of the plate with his swing.

"He's a Hall of Famer," Jones said. "I took it [his advice] but I didn't use it right away."

Baseball players have to constantly adjust to stay at the top of their game. Longtime greats like Yaz and Ripken were always tinkering with their stances. Jones seems to have found an adjustment that works for him. We'll see how the opposition pitching adjusts to counter that.

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A new improvement to the Day by Day Database. You can now compare players across time periods. For example, here's how everyone stacks up vs. Sammy Sosa during June of 1998. You can come up with any combination of dates, home-road, vs. team, on team and park. And you can sort by any numeric field. If you find any bugs, please let me know in the comments.

I'm going to make this post the entry point for the Day by Day Database. (would people prefer Day by Daytabase?)

Daily batting logs for individual players.

Compare players over a given time period.

I hope you find this a useful research tool.

Update: Pitcher day by day logs are now available as well.

Update: Pitcher comparisons are now available. See who has the best ERA or allowed the most HR over a period of time.

Update: Current hit streaks can be found here.

Update: Team starting pitcher log. This allows you to look at the starters for a team over a given period. See who is pitching when, against what teams, and get an overall record for the starters over the selected dates.

Update 12/7/2005: Batter Splits and Pitcher Splits are the new addition to the Day by Day Database. See the explanation here.

Update 12/10/2005: Team splits are now available. Pick team batters or pitchers, then set your parameters and see the results!

Update 12/19/2005: Added new split functionalities, Batter Splits by Season and Pitcher Split by Season. See the explanation here.

Update 3/19/2006: Added Batter Split Comparisons and Pitcher Split Comparisons. You can see examples of these in this post.

Update 6/2/2006: Added an RBI Percentage Chart to the database. See this post for an explanation.

Update 1/21/2007: Added Team Record with Players in Game. The explanation is here.

Update 7/19/2007: Added League Splits. This is great for finding out league averages over a given time period and for particular splits.

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Jayson Stark tries to look into the future to see how the war on steroids will effect performance on the field. I thought this was interesting:

Cashman says he believes steroid use is currently so low – if not nearly nonexistent – that it's more of a worry in evaluating potential draft picks (who have never been tested) than it is in judging big leaguers. And he isn't alone in that belief.

A middle-market NL GM says his team has spent very little time worrying about this because "we're down to one percent that are using it. That's what they're telling us – that last year it was one percent."

Asked whether he believed that figure – since Congress and the public clearly don't – he replied: "I do."

True, it might be in his best interest to spin the best possible light on this issue. But this is one of baseball's most down-to-earth general managers – a man not normally known for spewing excessive baloney. And the fact is, a number of his fellow GMs clearly agree with him.

One AL GM says the state of the current scandal has been "overblown, without a doubt" – and "it's also revisionist history."

"The peak of usage, in my opinion, was five to seven years ago," he says. "And there has been a steady decline since then."

Many GMs believe the minor-league testing program has had a major impact – both on young players and on the fringe players who used to be especially tempted to use steroids. And now, the theory goes, the major-league program – and fear of public humiliation – has all but finished the job.

So don't look for a big change in overall offense. The change appears to be in individuals; we haven't seen a big home run season since Bonds hit 73. Testing at both the minor and major league level appears to be having the desired effect.

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With the introduction of a graphical representation of the Probabilistic Model of Range for players, I've had a couple of requests for entire infields, specifically the Angels and the Yankees. I'm presenting the charts for groundballs in two ways:

1. All fielders combined into a line.
2. Each position broken out separately so you can see which positions are strong or weak in each vector.

Note that I don't break it out by individual players; it's all shortstops for a team or all third basemen for a team.

Without further ado, here are the charts for the Angels and Yankees. (Click on graph for a clearer view.)

One example of how to use these charts is to look at the hole between third and short for the Angels, vector 1. The Angels as a whole are above average here, but it's due to the third basemen being way above average, while the shortstops as a whole are below average.

The other thing these graphs are telling me is that I don't have park effects right. The expected curves for the two teams mostly look as they should; They have four humps representing the straight-away position of the fielders, the places where you would expect the most outs. But the Angels have a big hump down the right field line; the Yankees have a smaller hump up the middle.

There's no reason for me to believe that a ground ball down the line is easier to field in Anaheim than anywhere else in the majors. Even though the data is smoothed (1/2 without park effects, 1/2 with) it's obviously not enough. I'll be persuing other ways of dealing with park effects in the near future.

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Michael Gee in the Boston Herald looks at Baseball's popularity:

Baseball is just like Broadway. Both look like dying businesses until you try to buy a ticket.

Motion pictures, radio, and TV were all going to ruin live theater. High costs spelled doom for stage shows in 1905 and 2005. Broadway was called ``The Fabulous Invalid'' over 50 years ago.

Those who tried to score orchestra seats for the original cast version of ``The Producers'' found the invalid in robust health. Either they paid a bundle or more often they were out of luck.

Baseball's no different. The big leagues have existed for more than a century in which their demise was always right around the corner.

``Go back as far as you want,'' Players Association head Don Fehr once said. ``Two things are always true. No team ever had enough pitching and no team ever made any money.''

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I've added links under Navigation in the sidebar to the Day by Day Database and the Fielding Charts.

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Balls, Sticks and Stuff link to a Bill James interview in which Bill defends his statement about veteran leadership enabling the Red Sox to come back from an 0-3 deficit.

I believe in a universe that is too complex for any of us to really understand. Each of us has an organized way of thinking about the world—a paradigm, if you will—and we need those, of course; you can’t get through the day unless you have some organized way of thinking about the world. But the problem is that the real world is vastly more complicated than the image of it that we carry around in our heads. Many things are real and important that are not explained by our theories—no matter who we are, no matter how intelligent we are.

Of course, the Yankees had veteran leadership also and blew a 3-0 lead. I'll buy that the leadership (or competitive spirit) of the Red Sox kept them from giving up after the blow out in game 3. The odds of wining four in a row should be about 1 in 16; the fact that teams come back much less than that tells me something else is at work when a team loses the first three games.

• The two teams are not evenly matched; the team with the 3-0 lead is a far superior team.
• The team that's losing gives up.

We know from their facing each other extensively over the season that the Yankees and Red Sox were evenly matched. Not giving up allowed them to get lucky and win four games in a row. The leadership may have been an inflection point, without which the luck could never have come into play.

Or maybe it's just regression to the mean. If the odds are only 1:16 of a comeback, it has to happen sooner or later. :-)

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Ray Ratto offers a number of reasons for Bay Area fans to watch the Athletics this season.

The A's are giving us the eternal hope of spring, and the promise of the eager nonroster player, and the smell of the morning grass, and the sweet sounds of ball on bat, ball on leather, and "Kevin Pittsnogle from the corner . .. FOR THREE!"

Yes, the A's are giving us baseball, and man, are they missing the point.

Maybe Billy Beane and Ken Macha and whoever owns the team this morning think that the A's gave up a large part of their alumni list to the sideshow. Canseco, McGwire, Jason Giambi, Sandy Alderson, Tony La Russa ... those are quite a few ponies to add to the dogs that turned the steroid hearings into "CSI: Foggy Bottom."

Maybe they are too young to have earned their spurs in scandal, or too clever to have been caught on the bad side of the syringe.

Maybe they are just bluff old traditionalists channeling Connie Mack, Jimmie Foxx and the Dead Ball Era.

All we know is this: Baseball isn't selling the innocence of promise this spring, but the A's are.

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A recent article pointed out that the Diamondbacks had a good problem at catcher; two youngsters who both could start. The reason it's a good situation became obvious Saturday when one of the two injured his thumb. Chris Snyder will be re-evaluated Monday. His injury may give Hill the inside track to win the starter's job.

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Tyler Kepner pens an excellent article on Jorge Posada's interactions with his pitching staff. It's a constant learning experience for Posada:

"My favorite part is knowing that they're comfortable, knowing that, no matter what, they can count on me," Posada said. "What I really enjoy most about catching is the relationship with a pitcher. The most important thing is they can relax when I'm back there and know that I did my job, I did some homework on hitters."

He has to adjust to each personality on the mound:

The hard part, Posada said, is that every pitcher is different. Roger Clemens wanted constant feedback. Orlando Hernández needed Posada to challenge him. Mike Mussina directs his own game, with little interference. Posada adjusts daily, depending on the pitcher.

And the pitchers depend on him for clues to how to work the batters:

Pavano peppers his catcher with questions between innings, asking if he saw the same thing Pavano did from a hitter. Wright, who said he was easy to catch because he throws mostly fastballs, also relies on the catcher to read a batter's clues.

"He's sitting right next to the hitter, so he can see a lot of things I can't necessarily see," Wright said. "And also, being a hitter, he might have a better idea what it means when a guy's moving his feet or his hips."

The piece does a nice job of illustrating a subtlety of the game that's difficult to quantify. It also shows why there's more to a catcher's defense than throwing out base stealers.

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Ryan Drese has earned the opening day start for the Texas Rangers.

Drese, who typically is all about pitching, shrugged off the honor after allowing a run in six innings in Saturday's 7-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox.

"I just want the ball," Drese said. "That's the mentality. It doesn't matter when. That's for Buck and [pitching coach] Orel [Hershiser] to decide. I look at last year and how I was able to do what I did through hard work; you could say it's earned."

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The Easter Bunny arrived a day early for me, and instead of colorful eggs I received colorful charts representing each fielder's probabilistic model of range. For each player, there's a se of graphs with a black line for actual outs, a yellow line for predicted out, a red line for the difference between the two, and blue lines representing the best and worst values for those data points by qualifying players.

I want to thank and congratulate Dave Stasiuk for his hard work and excellent programming skills in creating these web pages. Thanks to to Studes for many mock ups and helpful suggestions. I'm having a great time looking at these graphs, and I hope you do also.

Go here to see a list of players. Then click on the name, and you'll get complete charts for every position played by that fielder, one for each batted ball type. Enjoy!

Please feel free to use the comments to suggest any improvements.

Update (7:00 AM EST March 27, 2005): David Stasiuk explains the blue lines:

It's +/- 1 standard deviation from the average AO/BIP for each vector by position by BIP type, as weighted by the number of balls in play for each player...so, for example, a shortstop who played one game, and had one ball hit to him and made it for 1.0 AO/BIP would only have one record at 1.0 in calculating the standard deviation, whereas a shortstop who played every game and had 0.93 AO/BIP in 200 BIP to the same vector over the course of the season would have 200 records at 0.93 in calculating the standard deviation.

This gave me a solid +/- for every position for every vector...it isn't a min/max so much as it is a standard range of performance. Basically, if a regular player is either over or under that range endpoint, you know that they're either really good or really bad for that particular BIP type and vector.

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I didn't realize that Ichiro Suzuki had changed his batting stance halfway through the season last year. With the new stance, he hit .429 after the break in 2004, raising questions as to whether he can hit .400 for a season. My feeling is that if he were more selective, he'd hit for a higher average.

Of course, feelings can be checked. BIS keeps track of location of pitches in the strikezone. So we can calculate Ichiro's average on balls in the strikezone vs. balls outside of the strikezone:

Ichiro 2004	In Strike Zone	Outside Strike Zone
AB	589	115
Hits	228	34
Batting Avg.	.387	.296

This table indicates two things to me:

1. Ichiro mostly puts balls in play that are in the strikezone. He doesn't put that many bad balls in play.
2. He hits very well when putting bad balls in play, but no where near as well as when he waits for a pitch in the strike zone.

So I have no doubt that even better selectivity would improve Ichrio's average. If he was able to turn some of those bad ball AB into walks, the smaller batting average denominator would also help him achieve a .400 BA.

Update: I just wanted to check vs. someone with a reputation for having a good eye for the strikezone.

Bonds 2004	In Strike Zone	Outside Strike Zone
AB	333	40
Hits	122	13
Batting Avg.	.366	.325

Bonds had AB on balls out of the strike zone 11% of the time. Ichiro had AB on balls out of the strikezone 28% of the time.

Correction:: Fixed row names in tables.

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Does Nick Swisher have a problem?

Nick Swisher's frustrating spring continued on Thursday, when the rookie made his team-high fourth error and struck out twice more, putting his total at an ample 19.

That's almost double the next-highest number on the Oakland squad (Bobby Crosby has 10), and it's not a good sign for the outfielder -- Swisher usually walks at about the same clip he strikes out, and he's not doing so right now, with only 10 walks. He's not seeing the ball that well, and he's making a number of mechanical adjustments, tough work for someone heading into his first full major-league season.

The strikeout total is up to 20 after yesterday's game. However, his 10 walks lead the team and he has a .348 OBA. He's certainly not hitting for power with a .293 slugging percentage; anytime a player has a lower slugging percentage than OBA, you probably have some work to do. However, if he's drawn 10 walks in 58 AB, I have a feeling he's seeing the ball well enough. He's just not meeting the ball very well.

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What do Johnny Damon and Dwight David Eisenhower have in common? Nixon in the #2 slot.

Nine days before Opening Day, manager Terry Francona made a significant change in the lineup vs. right-handed starting pitchers by moving Trot Nixon [stats, news] up to second from sixth and dropping Edgar Renteria from second to fifth. It also resulted in Kevin Millar [stats, news] dropping one spot to sixth.

I like this spin on the move:

"We could probably hit these guys anywhere and if they hit like they're supposed to, we'll be OK,'' Francona said. ``But the idea is, if they hit like they're supposed to, is to maximize our scoring opportunities."

Nixon, for his career, has a 20 point higher OBA than Renteria. Batting Renteria fifth is also interesting. It looks to me as if they're trying to use him as a leadoff man for the bottom of the order.

It should be noted that with Bellhorn batting 9th, you have two great OBA guys in front of Nixon, leading to this comment by Francona:

"Our two-hole is more of an RBI position than other clubs, so we view it a little different," Francona said. "It may be a little bit unconventional but I think when you sit down and look at it, it seems to be in our best interests."

Nixon, in this sense, is a swing man. He's a table setter in the first inning, and he's an RBI man when Bellhorn and Damon set the table. A fascinating lineup.

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Sidney Ponson's troubles continue, this time with a DUI he hadn't reported to the Orioles:

Unaware until Thursday that Ponson had been arrested in January on charges of driving under the influence and speeding, manager Lee Mazzilli summoned a small group of reporters to a hallway outside his office and issued a brief statement before heading to Viera.

"One, I'm not happy about it. I don't like it," he said. "This club stands for tradition. It's got a long history. It's just a black eye for us and we'll deal with it internally."

It's much easier for a team to tolerate shenanigans from a winning pitcher with a good ERA than from a losing pitcher with a high ERA. I get the feeling from the quotes like this:

"We'll always take everything into account," Flanagan said.

Asked if he was disappointed that Ponson hadn't become a "changed man" since December's arrest, Flanagan said: "I can't go there. I'd like to go there, but I can't go there."

That the Orioles aren't going to be too patient if Sidney doesn't perform on the mound.

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Indians ace CC Sabathia will start the season on the DL. He's expected to miss one or two starts. Since he hasn't pitched in a game this spring, I wonder if that's realistic, or if players just don't need six or seven weeks to get ready for the season. :-)

Also, the Indians sent Kaz Tadano to Buffalo, reducing the number of players called Kaz in the majors to three.

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I always forget the anniversary of my blog. It was yesterday, the 24th, although the first post of any substance was on the 25th. Anyway you look at it, three years of Baseball Musings is in the books. It's been a real pleasure. Over 1.2 million unqiue visits to the site in that time. It started out in Blogger on the disk space my ISP provides me. I'm now on MoveableType and BaseballMusings.com is it's own domain. Thanks to all who have visited for making this site successful.

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Doug Glanville was released by the Yankees today. He's one player who is likely to be more productive out of baseball. I'd love to see him blog about the game; as both an excellent writer and a former insider, he'd look at the game from a very interesting angle.

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Shallow Center links to an article by Jim Salisbury on catching Billy Wagner. Jim actually got behind the plate and felt the fastball on his palms and saw just how much a breaking ball breaks. I think it's great for reporters to get in there with the players and see just what it's like from their perspective.

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The Madness of King George is a new blog about the Yankees. Check out his theory on what happened to Roger Clemens' Hummer.

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I'll be in and out over the next few days helping out my family and visiting for Easter. I suspect blogging will be very light or audio. I hope everyone who celebrates has a lovely Easter weekend.

Sidney Ponson was involved in another fight. It seems a drunk would not let Sir Sidney alone:

This time, Ponson was eating dinner with his girlfriend when a man approached and essentially challenged him to a fight, according to the pitcher and his agent. Ponson said the man eventually began to push the pitcher in the chest.

"It kept going on and on; he was nagging me forever," Ponson said. "It was the worst I'd ever heard. Then he touched me, and I had to draw a line. ... You clearly could see the guy was intoxicated. It was one of those things, you can't do nothing about it."

Praver said Ponson attempted to ignore the man, but the verbal abuse escalated to a physical confrontation.

"It was one of those things, people are going to find out who I am, try to push my buttons. ... I held back as much as I could," Ponson said.

I wonder why the resturant didn't step in and remove the man? Also, I suppose you have to be pretty drunk to think you can take on a professional athlete in a fight, especially one as big as Ponson.

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All-Baseball.com has started their division by division look at the upcoming season. Their previews for the AL West and AL Central are up.

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Chuck Gitles sends me this story on Kerry Wood missing another start, this time with a bad back. This passage:

Wood was scheduled to make his first appearance since March 9, when he experienced tightness in his shoulder and removed himself from a game.

"He didn't sleep well last night," manager Dusty Baker said. "His back was real tight, so we decided not to take chance in throwing him. It's not his arm. It's his back, which he has trouble with every once in a while."

Baker said Wood wanted to pitch, but the Cubs staff decided to let Wood get treatment from the trainers and a chiropractor instead. Wood may throw a simulated game on Friday at HoHoKam Park if his back responds to treatment.

Reminds me of an old Letterman show that had George Steinbrenner as a guest. The show started with Letterman and Steinbrenner sitting in makeup chairs, and Dave is screaming at his staff, threatening to fire everyone when the phone rings. It's Rickey Henderson for George. George takes the phone and the one-sided conversation goes something like this:

George: "Rickey, you had a bad dream? Don't worry take the night off."

Letterman: "Bad dream, ooooooh."

The continued troubles of Wood and Prior are sure to keep Cubs fans nervous as opening day approaches.

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audio post powered by audblog

Two points were noted in this audio post:

The announcers thought David Eckstein was a step down defensively from Edgar Renteria.

The Mets have done a very good job stealing bases this spring, and I was wondering how much of that was Randolph's influence.

Red Sox Nation has posted an interview with Rob Neyer concentrating on pitching questions. Don't miss the Babe Ruth/David Wells comparison.

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After hearing someone sing "I Think I Love You" on American Idol last night, today I see that David Cassidy wants to win the Kentucky Derby. Humbug Journal thinks gene doping has gone a bit too far. :-)

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Lots of speculation about how quickly Barry Bonds can recover from his knee operation, and even more about if he wants to come back.

On the knee:

Bonds had surgery on his right knee on Jan. 31, then banged it into a table at SBC Park; he had another operation on the same knee last week in San Francisco. Conte was relieved afterward because he said that Bonds's long-term prognosis was promising.

"It's not a matter of if he'll play again," Conte said. "It's a matter of when."

On any return:

What awaits Bonds now is anyone's guess. A month ago, you had to give $10 to win $1 on a "can-he-catch-Hank Aaron'' bet. Now, even Babe Ruth seems far away.

Besides, the home run records are now an afterthought. The specter of Bonds in the dock is just as compelling.

This story has grown so many tentacles that it often seems in danger of strangling itself. Tuesday's developments make it more tangled still. Every day there are more members of the "everybody" class, and fewer buffers between Bonds and a hard, cruel world that may get even harder and crueler.

This isn't the endgame, but you can see it from here.

Being a jerk is a big part of what brought Barry Bonds to this point. Unfortunately, it's also part of what made him the great player. The supercompetitiveness could not be left on the field. He wanted his opponents to hate him. His clubhouse perks set him apart from his teammates. He wouldn't tolerate the press. What's left is a reservoir of goodwill that could fill a thimble.

So when the feces hit the fan, there was no one to back up Bonds. After Sunday's revelations, I doubt he's getting much support from his family. Bill James would often write in his Abstracts that every strength covers up a weakness. Bonds ego driven competitiveness pushed him to the top of the list of great hitters. But in his hour of adversity it's left him alone and pathetic.

Will he be back? Probably. In the end, the competitiveness will win out. I wonder, however, if things will be the same on the field. Will pitchers be more willing to go after a weak kneed Bonds? Will he be able to drive his body with his repaired left knee? Will he be able to plant his right leg for the follow through on his swing? Will other teams take advantage of his immobility in left field?

I hope Scorsese makes this into a movie some day.

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Bob Melvin has announced his preferred lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'd bat Cruz 2nd and Clayton 7th or 8th. Cruz both has a better career OBA and a better stolen base percentage than Clayton. And his power isn't that great that you're losing a big RBI threat moving him to 2nd.

However, since the meat of the Diamondbacks ability to get on base is in their 3-4-5 hitters, it might not be a bad idea to have Cruz behind them to drive them in. With this lineup, the 3-4-5 hitters could end up with more runs scored than driven in.

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Scott Miller writes an interesting article about the difference in offensive approach between the Angels and the Athletics.

While the Angels ranked 14th in the AL and 28th in baseball last year with 450 walks, Oakland was third in the AL and fifth in the majors with 608.

Yet, in on-base percentage, while Oakland ranked fifth in the AL and ninth in the majors at .343, the Angels were right with them -- sixth in the AL and 13th in the majors at .341. And on the final weekend of the season, the Swingin' Angels won the first two games of a series in Oakland to steal the division title.

As you read the whole article, Miller confuses walks and OBA. While drawing a lot of walks helps a team have a high OBA, it's not the only way to achieve a high OBA. The Angels strike out the least of any team in the AL; the more balls you put into play, the more are going to get through for hits (Ichiro is the single player example of this).

It doesn't matter how you get on base, as long as you get on base. And there's no doubt that hits are a superior way of getting on base because they can move other runners long distances, and often put the batter beyond first base. My problem with teams and players who don't walk is that they have a weakness that potentially can be exploited. That's what happened in the ALDS. The Angels struck out 28 times in three games because the Red Sox were able to exploit that weakness.

The Angels have a perfectly legitimate approach to offense that works just fine. A good pitching staff, however, can exploit their aggressiveness and get them to swing at lousy pitches.

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Eric DuBose said exactly the wrong thing when stopped for a DUI last night:

The report states DuBose informed Clark he had "a couple" drinks at the Cafe Gardens and Daquiri Deck in Sarasota. When instructed to recite the alphabet, DuBose allegedly said, "I'm from Alabama, and they have a different alphabet."

I bet the jails are a lot alike, however.

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Great quote from Ichrio at U.S.S. Mariner.

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I'm watching the Mets-Braves on ESPN. They're showing an interview with Bonds, and Barry is saying he's going to out for at least 1/2 a season if not the whole season.

He's saying how tired he is, how "you guys" (meaning the media) have finally got to him. This is a huge set back for the Giants.

Update: Some quotes from the interview:

BB: I'm tired guys, just tired.

ESPN: Of?

BB: Everything. Tired.

...

BB: You guys wanted to hurt me bad enough, you finally got there.

...

BB: I don't know if I'm going to be back yet.

ESPN: Did you just say a little while ago maybe mid-season, maybe next season?

BB: Maybe. I told you that before I left remember? You thought I was joking. Didn't you say stop kidding?

I don't think I've ever seen Bonds look so defeated. It looks like Aaron and Ruth are safe for a while.

Update: Here's the report at SFGate.com.

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The Cubs continue to suffer injuries to their pitching staff. This time, it's closer Joe Borowski:

Chicago Cubs closer Joe Borowski will be out three to four weeks after suffering a hairline crack in his right wrist while fielding a comebacker Monday, The Chicago Tribune reported.

Borowski, who missed the final four months of the 2004 season, won't likely see big league action until mid-May.

Hawkins was having a much better spring, striking out 9 in 8 1/3 innings while walking none. You would think he'd do fine in the closer role, but his low career save percentage argues otherwise.

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Alex Belth notes his and Rich Lederer's excitement at Jason Giambi's triple. Giambi is batting .294 this spring with a .559 slugging percentage and a .444 OBA. He's drawn nine walks and struck out eight times. If Jason comes anywhere near these numbers in the regular season it would boost the New York offense even higher. It would also call into question how much steroids really help a ballplayer.

Giambi's a test case. Can a clean player perform as well as when he was using? Jason is doing well this spring. I'd like to see him sustain these levels for the whole season.

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The Tribune-Review is reporting that Jason Bay's wrist is not healing as quickly as expected:

Bay still has not been cleared to swing a bat as the swelling in his hand slowly subsides.

"We'd like to get him back out there," manager Lloyd McClendon said. "It's something we have to evaluate over the next three or four days and make a decision."

Bay has accumulated only 15 at-bats this spring. He could make up the lost time in minor-league games, but if Bay does not return until next week, he may have to stay behind in extended spring training when camp breaks.

Wrist injuries to hitters always concern me. It seems to take a lot of time after the injury has healed for the batter to get his stroke back. If Bay is sidelined, that will make it difficult for the Pirates to get off to a good start in 2005.

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You can get the Podcast of last night's Sports Bloggers Live here. Baseball Musings is featured 43 minutes into the show.

Update: You can here just the baseball segment here.

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The Baseball Crank serves up his predictions for the NL East using Established Win Shares. The results will suprise you.

While I don't doubt that Chipper Jones and Pedro Martinez could fall off as much as predicted, I'm betting that won't happen. We'll have to revisit this post in the fall.

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Joel Piñeiro was pain free in his return to the mound yesterday. He'll start the season in extended spring training for the Mariners.

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Week three of the Baseball Musings pledge drive has come and gone. The latest tally is that 143 readers have contributed over $2100. Last week saw the first $500 pledge, and Jan in Wellesley became enshirned as a patron.

Over 35,000 unique URLs have visited Baseball Musings this month. A $1 donation from each of those would have this blog running for a year. Realistically, I was hoping for 10% of the visitors to donate $10 on average. The average donation is more than generous at around $15. But it seems all the easy donations have been gathered.

With 10 days to go, will you be part of the effort to make Baseball Musings a full time blog? If everyone who visits today gives $1, we'd double the contributions in one day. Ten dollars gets us there that much faster. Remember, $50 brings you a blog post dedication with hyperlink, and $500 put you in the sidebar as a patron.

Baseball Musings brings you news and opinions. Original research such as the Probabilistic Model of Range. Research tools such as the Day by Day Database. If any of these are useful, interesting or challenging to you, help make this a full time site with your donation. Just click on the PayPal button below.

And once a again, thanks to everyone who has donated this month. You've helped tremendously and I hope your fellow readers will join in.

It appears accounts of Mark Buehrle's foot injury were greatly exaggerated. It does not appear to be a break, and the foot will not be placed in a cast. Good news for the White Sox.

Where does this leave Brandon McCarthy? Do they send him to AAA for more seasoning, or do they believe he can get the job done now and make him their fifth starter anyway? Isn't it worth seeing if he'll be better than the projected 3-4-5 starters Hernandez, Contreras, Garland and Hermanson? The White Sox are supposedly going with speed over power this season. That's going to mean fewer runs. They'll need as low a team ERA as they can get; why not give McCarthy a try? He may turn out to be Bret Saberhagen.

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An interesting matchup in the Devil Rays-Reds game tonight as former NY Mets left Scott Kazmir faces former NY Yankees lefty Brandon Claussen. Kazmir had a great outing, striking out 5 and walking 1 in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 1.42 ERA this spring. Claussen allowed 2 unearned runs, but has a spring ERA of 2.08. Add that to Brad Halsey having a good spring, and it does look like the big apple gave up three good lefties.

Update: Changed doesn't to does in the last sentence.

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I'll be a guest tonight on Sports Bloggers Live at 7:40.

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Corey Hart has the most AB in the Brewers camp this spring, and is putting up a respectable .378 OBA with no power. I hope he makes the big league club this year so I see him wear his sunglasses at night.

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Mark Buehrle will miss the start of the season with a broken foot. Buehrle, the ace of the staff, was having a great spring, striking out 12 and walking only 2 in 18 2/3 innings.

He'll be replaced by Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy's had an excellent spring as well, with 9 K and 1 BB in 15.1 innings. His ERA is 0.59. The 21 year-old has been phenomenal at every level of the minors so far. In his career, he's walked 60 while striking out 406. It was just a matter of time before Brandon made the rotation; the other four staters may wonder who's going to be out of a job when Buehrle returns.

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The Orioles are auctioning off a suite for opening day. A great idea. Room for sixteen and full catering. Sounds like a fun place for a party.

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Oops.

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Jon Weisman has the latest Dodger news at Dodger Thoughts, including news that Choi may bat 2nd.

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At age 35, Scott Hatteberg is starting to think about life after baseball.

The idea of a front-office job piques Hatteberg's interest, too.

"Yeah, I think about life after baseball,'' Hatteberg said. "My career is somewhere close to ending. I think, 'Hell, I've been in school 15 years in baseball,' and the teaching aspect appeals to me, but the front office is even more appealing. It seems cool. I think I'd enjoy that.

"Billy and I have never discussed it, like, 'Hey, do you want a job?' But I'm very interested in what's going on, and Billy tells me a lot about what he looks for (in players). The whole process is like the ultimate video game."

Chavez believes he'd be a great hitting coach:

With the amount of time Hatteberg spends thinking about hitting and analyzing his stroke and watching video-tape of pitchers, one teammate thinks he'd be even better as a batting coach.

"He's definitely a smart guy in a lot of areas,'' third baseman Eric Chavez said. "It seems like he does everything well. I've never thought of him as a GM, but I could see him as a hitting coach, because he's made himself such a good baseball player and has worked so hard to do it. That kind of knowledge he could definitely pass on."

It looks like Scott won't have a difficult time finding a job once his career is over.

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Are the Washington Nationals going to be better than we think? A paragraph in this article about the Nationals rotation caught my eye:

Spring training isn't about statistics, but the numbers provide some evidence that the Nationals' rotation, though clearly not as overpowering at the front end as other teams' in the National League East, should be quite capable of competing. The five presumed starters -- Hernandez, Tony Armas Jr., Esteban Loaiza, Tomo Ohka and Zach Day -- have thrown 60 2/3 innings against major league clubs this spring, walking only nine with 25 strikeouts and a 2.97 ERA.

Six of those walks have come from Armas and Day, who both have ERA's over five this spring. But if this group is pitching well as a whole, then the former Expos are playing to a strength. RFK looks like a park that would be tough on offense. According to the STATS All-Time Baseball Source Book, RFK had a park index of 97 for runs and 96 for HR during the years the second Senators team played there, meaning it reduced scoring and long balls. If the starters can continue to keep men off base with free passes, and the park knocks down fly balls, the Nationals will have a good team ERA. Find some offense, and you have a winning team.

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Right now, the Randy Johnson deal is looking pretty good for the Diamondbacks. Not only is Javier Vazquez having an excellent spring, but it looks like Brad Halsey will be the fifth starter. You can see their spring training stats here.

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The rumored trade between the Mets and the Dodgers came off today. Kaz Ishii joins the Mets while Jason Phillips will head to the West Coast with the Dodgers and become their starting catcher.

Ishii had a huge falloff in strikeouts per 9 last year, dropping over 3. Phillips had a falloff offensively as well. His OBA dropped 75 points and his slugging percentage dropped 120 points vs. 2003. Who gets the better deal? The Dodgers save $2 million in the deal; I don't know how much either of these players is going to help their new teams, but the Dodgers are at least saving some money.

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Another addition to the Day by Day Database (or, as someone suggested, the Day by Day-tabase). Now you can select the park for study. This allows you, for example, to see how Jason Kendall hit in both Three Rivers and PNC.

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No Pepper made a trip to the Braves training facility at Disney World and reports his observations with pictures.

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Long time readers of this blog know I'm a fan of Strat-O-Matic baseball. I've been playing in leagues on and off since college, both face to face and by mail. When Strat-O-Matic Fanatics arrived in the mail recently, I thought it would be an interesting read about people like me, fans who learned to appreciate the game statistically through simulation. It turned out to be much more than that.

Author Glenn Guzzo brings us the intimate details of the life of Hal Richman, the inventor of the game. Trapped in a dysfunctional family, Hal's love of sports becomes his escape. The lack of statistical accuracy of All Star Baseball prompts Hal to invent his own game at age 12, the game that would evolve into Strat-O-Matic, the game that would give him independence from his family.

It's the story of the underdog becoming the hero through hard work and honesty. Guzzo tells the tale well, invoking sympathy for Hal's pain and happiness for his triumph. Along the way, any Strat player will see a bit of himself in the people who play the game; pouring over cards, rolling the dice. Guzzo captures the exciement of turning over a split card to see if the result is a hit or an out.

Of course, we meet the famous players. Dan Okrent of the NY Times and the inventor of fantasy baseball. John Miller, the voice of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Lenny Dykstra of the Mets and Phillies. Guzzo takes us behind the scenes of ratings meetings and touraments. But in the end, it's the story of Hal Richman and his fights throught adversity that make this book a must read.

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Kate Zernike looks at the way drugs are used to enhance performance outside of sports and asks if these people are cheating also?

But if baseball players are cheating, is everyone else, too?

After all, Americans are relying more and more on a growing array of performance enhancing drugs. Lawyers take the anti-sleep drug Provigil to finish that all-night brief, in hopes of concentrating better. Classical musicians take beta blockers, which banish jitters, before a big recital.Is the student who swallows a Ritalin before taking the SAT unethical if the pill gives her an unfair advantage over other students? If a golfer pops a beta blocker before a tournament, is he eliminating a crucial part of competition - battling nerves and a chance of choking?

And as time goes on, the drugs are only going to get better. What's the right answer? On one hand, you have people with a vested interest in keeping PEDs out of sports; the natural athletes and people who want to protect the records of their heros (Maris didn't really break Ruth's record because he had 162 games and expansion; McGwire didn't really break Maris' record because of a juiced ball/expansion/smaller parks/diluted pitching/steroids). On the other hand if nature makes life easy for some people, why not use drugs to balance the playing field. If some excels due to naturally high levels of testosterone, why not raise other people to that level?

These are not easy questions. As always, I welcome your comments on the subject.

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Mark Saxon pens a long piece on Francisco Rodriguez for the Orange County Register. One problem with K-Rod spring is that he's finishing off hitters so quickly he can't get enough work:

How confident is Rodriguez? He has been so dominant this spring, he complains that he has been unable to refine his game.

"How can I work with five-pitch, 10-pitch innings?" he asks.

He's yet to allow a hit and has walked only one batter. The article also offers a nice biography of the man and how his grandfather involved him in baseball to keep him out of gangs.

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Chan Ho Park continues to pitch well enough to hold on to his job. In nine innings this spring, he's yet to walk a man.

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Schilling will definitely miss the opening of the season. He'll be on the DL for at least the first two weeks of the 2005 pennant race. David Wells will instead get the nod against Randy Johnson. That may very well be the oldest opening day duo in history.

The Red Sox are not replacing Schilling. Instead, they'll go with a four-man rotation until he gets back. Good for them. More teams need to start using the fifth starter as a swing man; if you have a day off, let the #5 starter become the long man in the bullpen. That way, teams can save a spot on the roster for a defensive specialist or platooned pinch hitter.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have a good problem this spring; two young catcher playing very well. Kelly Stinnett may end up being the odd man out.

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I don't know who the San Francisco Chronicle has as their grand jury source, but I hope he/she is getting a lot of money. They have the most devestating article on Bonds I've seen yet.

Prosecutors in the BALCO steroids conspiracy case subpoenaed a former girlfriend of Barry Bonds to testify before a federal grand jury in San Francisco last week, questioning her about the Giants star's finances and whether he used steroids, The Chronicle has learned.

Kimberly Bell, 35, a graphic artist from San Jose who says she dated Bonds from 1994 to 2003, told the grand jury Thursday that in 2000, the left fielder confided to her that he had begun using steroids, according to two sources familiar with an account of her testimony.

Bell also testified that in 2001, Bonds had given her $80,000 in cash -- earned, she claimed, from his sale of autographed baseballs and other memorabilia -- to make the down payment on a house for her in Scottsdale, Ariz., near the Giants' spring training facility, the sources said.

Bonds' attorney, Michael Rains, said the Giants star had never used banned substances and had never made big cash payments to Bell. He said he had "no grave concern, none at all," about the grand jury inquiry.

Rains is putting on a pretty good spin here. Ms. Bell was smart, and kept evidence of her affair in answering machine tapes and receipts. Her story puts Bonds in legal jeopardy in two ways:

1. Her testimony indicates Bonds committed perjury.
2. Her testimony indicates Bonds dodged paying income tax on earning from selling memorabilia.

On the second point:

In 2001, Bell said, Bonds decided he wanted her to move to Arizona and offered to buy her a home in Scottsdale and, later, pay her college tuition. At the time, Bell said, she was earning about $80,000 as a graphic artist and was reluctant to give up her job, but Bonds persuaded her to go, saying he would take care of her financially.

Bonds is paid more than $17 million per year by the Giants, but Bell said he didn't want to spend his baseball wages on the house. Instead, he said he would raise the money by selling sports memorabilia. She recalled sitting in a San Francisco hotel room for several hours watching him sign baseballs that he said would pay for the house.

Eventually, she said, he gave her the $80,000 in lots of up to $9,000, each stack of bills banded together as though they had come from the bank. She said she had used the cash as a down payment on a $207,000 home in Scottsdale.

So she was laundering money for Bonds. Bonds would get paid in cash for his autograph sessions. He'd give her $9000 to deposit. Cash deposits of $10,000 or more get reported to the IRS. Finally, IRS agent Jeff Novitzky has some justification for his role.

And finally, it show Barry Bonds to be ..., well, I can't use the term on this site.

Bell told The Chronicle she had begun dating Bonds in 1994, during his contentious divorce from his first wife, Sun. The relationship nearly foundered when Bonds married his present wife, Liz Watson, in 1998, but Bell said she resumed seeing the Giants star after he returned from his honeymoon.

"He told me what a great girlfriend I was, because I didn't complain a lot, and I did what he told me to do," she said.

Over the years, Bell said she and Bonds had spent two or three evenings per week together at his condominium or her apartment. Bonds took her to his parents' home for dinner with his late father, former Giants outfielder Bobby Bonds, and escorted her to parties.

How very Victorian. It brings to mind Alfred Doolittle's speech from Pygmalion:

PICKERING. Have you no morals, man?
DOOLITTLE [unabashed] Cant afford them, Governor. Neither could you if you was as poor as me. Not that I mean any harm, you know. But if Liza is going to have a bit out of this, why not me too?
HIGGINS [troubled] I dont know what to do, Pickering. There can be no question that as a matter of morals it's a positive crime to give this chap a farthing. And yet I feel a sort of rough justice in his claim.
DOOLITTLE, Thats it, Governor. Thats all I say. A father's heart, as it were.
PICKERING. Well, I know the feeling; but really it seems hardly right—
DOOLITTLE. Dont say that, Governor. Dont look at it that way. What am I, Governors both? I ask you, what am I? I'm one of the undeserving poor: thats what I am. Think of what that means to a man. It means that hes up agen middle class morality all the time. If theres anything going, and I put in for a bit of it, it's always the same story: "Youre undeserving; so you cant have it." But my needs is as great as the most deserving widow's that ever got money out of six different charities in one week for the death of the same husband. I dont need less than a deserving man: I need more. I dont eat less hearty than him; and I drink a lot more. I want a bit of amusement, cause I'm a thinking man. I want cheerfulness and a song and a band when I feel low. Well, they charge me just the same for everything as they charge the deserving. What is middle class morality? Just an excuse for never giving me anything. Therefore, I ask you, as two gentlemen, not to play that game on me. I'm playing straight with you. I aint pretending to be deserving. I'm undeserving; and I mean to go on being undeserving. I like it; and thats the truth. Will you take advantage of a man's nature to do him out of the price of his own daughter what hes brought up and fed and clothed by the sweat of his brow until shes growed big enough to be interesting to you two gentlemen? Is five pounds unreasonable? I put it to you; and I leave it to you.
HIGGINS [rising, and going over to Pickering] Pickering: if we were to take this man in hand for three months, he could choose between a seat in the Cabinet and a popular pulpit in Wales.

Shaw did a marvelous job here of pointing out that the morals of the very poor were pretty much the same as the very rich; neither had any. The very poor couldn't afford them; the very rich could pay for them to be dismissed. Barry Bonds may find out that sometimes that latter statement is not true.

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Lance Berkman no longer has to wish he was a rich man.

Houston outfielder Lance Berkman completed a six-year, $85 million contract on Saturday with the Astros, keeping the three-time All-Star from becoming a free agent after the 2005 season.

"I'm just thrilled to make this type of commitment to the team," Berkman said. "I want to play every game of my career in an Astros uniform. I think this definitely solidifies in my mind that this is the place I want to be, and that this is the organization I love and want to help make a champion."

Of course, the Astros had plenty of money after the Mets signed away Carlos Beltran. Still, a very good signing. Berkman's the rare 3-4-5 guy; .300 BA, .400 OBA and .500 slugging percentage. And while he plays in a good offensive park, his road numbers are just as impressive. The question for Houston is can they find enough supporting players to win with Berkman's skills?

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An interesting comment to this month old post today.

My brother & I had a unique opportunity to to meet & talk with Rickey Henderson for 10 minutes yesterday (3/18/05) at the Royals-Angels spring training game.

Rickey deserves a chance to play.

He said, “I tell General Managers ‘pay me the minimum salary & then I’ll donate that entire salary to whatever local high school you want me to & I’ll play for free…I already have money, I know I can play…give me a shot & forget about how old I am.”

The game needs more guys like Rickey.

The Royals could use his influence on their young hitters.

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Shaking Spears is starting a movement I can sink my feet into. Bring back the stirrup!

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It's official, Roberto Alomar has retired.

"I played a lot of games and I said I would never embarrass myself on the field," Alomar said. "I had a long career, but I can't play at the level I want to play, so it's time to retire."

He said he had doubts even entering camp.

"I just can't go anymore," Alomar said. "My back, legs and eyes aren't the same."

My discussion of Alomar's Hall of Fame chances is here.

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The Reds are starting to make decisions about the shape of their starting lineup.

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It looks like Roberto Alomar's career is over. After playing one inning last night, in his first game in over a week, Alomar went home. An annoucement is expected today.

This was the same thing that happened to him in the Puerto Rican Winter League this off season. It's time to start the Hall of Fame discussion. He's very close. He came up at a young age which allowed him to have impressive career numbers despite a rapid decline in his mid-30's. He went from 37 win shares in 2001 to 15 in 2002 and slid further from there. A steady decline would have made him a lock by now. But the injury killed the longevity portion that goes into Hall voter's calculations.

Looking at the 1990s, Alomar's prime years of production (1990-1999), his comptemporaries are Knoblauch, Biggio and DeShields. They all played over 1200 games at second base, but I think we can dismiss Delino as not being nearly the hitter the other three were. In looking at their batting stats, Alomar does not stand out as much as I thought he would.

1990-1999	Alomar	Knoblauch	Biggio
Batting Avg.	.308	.297	.295
On-Base Avg.	.382	.386	.386
Slugging	.462	.417	.438

If fact, given that Biggio spent most of the decade in the Astrodome, I'd give Craig the nod as the best offensive second baseman of the decade. Alomar may get points for defense, but I don't think it's enough. Win shares confirms this, giving Biggio the 2nd highest total of the decade behind Bonds! (Biggio 287 (2nd), Alomar 243 (7th) and Knoblauch 208 (T-15th).)

My guess is that people will remember Alomar's post-season heroics, and that will give him the push he needs to gain election. But at some point, Craig Biggio should go in as well, as the best second baseman of the 1990s.

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Peter Gammons comes down very hard on both Selig and Fehr in his latest column.

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The Day by Day Database has new functionality. Now, you can choose the team the player is on, and the team he's playing against. Here's Mark McGwire playing for the Athletics against the Yankees.

This gives you any number of combinations; home, road, for a team, against a team. So you can see how Barry Bonds did as a Giant in road games vs. Pittsburgh. Enjoy!

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Via Jared Buck, the link to the transcripts of yesterday's hearings on steroids.

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Will Carroll comments on an episode of Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel. It looks at how teens and younger are blowing out their arms with too many pitches and the wrong pitches. This is the kind of story HBO should make available to everyone.

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Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star is impressed with Denny Bautista's spring. All are wondering why the Orioles would trade the young fireballer for Jason Grimsley:

Let's explain: It was June, and the word from Baltimore was that the Orioles felt as if they were in playoff contention (they were nine games under .500 and 9 1/2 games out of the wild-card spot). Apparently, the Orioles felt like a 36-year-old middle reliever might be just the thing to push them over the top.

So they called about Grimsley. And called again. And again. Baird kept asking for Bautista. And one day — desperation can do things to a team — the Orioles just said yes.

Grimsley did not bring the Orioles that playoff spot. He did blow out his elbow.

Meanwhile, around Kansas City, baseball people keep asking the same question: “What's wrong with Bautista?” They kept trying to guess what was wrong. Maybe he was wild. Maybe he had off-the-field issues. Maybe he was in the Witness Protection Program. Maybe. Maybe.

All they knew for sure is there had to be something, because the Orioles would not just deal a young pitcher with one of the game's most overpowering fastballs and other dazzling pitches for Jason Grimsley. No way. There had to be something wrong.

The thing is, the Royals can't find anything wrong with Bautista.

Here are his minor league numbers. Those are great strikeout numbers for a young pitcher. Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson, anyone? At least the Red Sox won the division that year.

(Hat tip, Palmball.)

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East Coast Agony explores the close bond between mentor Joe McEwing and student David Wright. McEwing's release breaks up two close friends.

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Coalition of the Dark Side is a new group blog that appears to be dedicated to the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry. From this post, I'd guess they're on the side of the Yankees.

As for Damon's illness, I was always told to stay out of Florida lakes due to bacteria. I guess they weren't kidding.

Correction: Fixed a typo.

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Via Instapundit, Steve Chapman in the Chicago Tribune sums up my feelings on the steroid hearings pefectly.

Update: Sam Jaffe has a different take on the editorial. I would like to point out a factual error in Sam's piece, however. It was the Supreme Court, not Congress, that gave baseball its anti-trust exemption.

Correction: Fixed a broken link.

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Andrew Clem has put together a terrific resource at Clem's Baseball and It's "Green Cathedrals". In addition to the blog, Clem has incredible diagrams of the stadiums. Check out Miller Park. You can actually open and close the dome! Stop by and say hi.

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The Detroit Tigers Weblog uses our Range Charts to look at the possible replacements for Alex Sanchez. We should have range charts for all players soon.

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The San Francisco Chronicle has a roundup of reaction to Bonds' knee surgery:

Despite all the optimism this spring Bonds would be ready by April 5, Sabean said he and manager Felipe Alou were "pretty blunt" in their conversations.

"As I sit here I thank God for Pedro Feliz and the fact he's played so much left field," Sabean said. "He has hit fourth all spring. It was a contingency. We obviously didn't know we were going to go down this path."

Even as Giants players said the right things about this veteran club's ability to pull together and overcome Bonds' absence, they could not downplay this development.

"It's a big blow for the team," Moises Alou said. "Barry is Barry, man. You're talking about Barry, you're talking about the best. Now is the time for us to show that we are a team."

I never thought I'd hear thanks offered for a 30-year-old with a career .288 OBA. Yes, he has some power, but Pedro will make a lot of outs in situations where Bonds would be walked. Last season, Bonds was 1 point short of doubling Feliz's OBA (.305 for Pedro, .609 for Barry). That's a huge falloff in offense.

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Reggie Sanders is going to be sidelined due to an appendectomy for a while. Is this the Wally Pipp moment for Rick Ankiel? Probably not:

With Sanders sidelined, the club probably will give his at-bats to So Taguchi, John Mabry and Cedeno. Mabry has received increased time after making only six plate appearances in the Cardinals' first eight games in part because of an elbow sprain suffered March 5.

Besides, if it was a simple laproscopic procedure (four tiny holes in your abdomen) Sanders should be back pretty quickly.

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I keep reading rather positive stories about the Texas Rangers pitching staff. Here's one about Nick Regilio. Through his minor league career, Nick has not allowed many home runs. With the Rangers home run park being one of the easiest AL stadiums for home runs, Regilio could be very effective there.

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Just for the record, I don't think ballplayers should be role models. As much as I love the game, the people who play it in general are not the nicest people in the world. I wouldn't let my daughter marry a professional ballplayer. I appreciate their skills, I enjoy their exploits, but outside of that they're not worth emulating. Parents should make that clear to their children.

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Barry Bonds had another surgery on his right knee today.

While the San Francisco Giants offered no timetable for the slugger's return, it took the seven-time NL MVP more time than expected to recover from the original surgery on the knee Jan. 31.

The Giants said in a statement that Bonds had arthroscopic surgery to repair tears in the knee. The operation was performed in the Bay Area by Art Ting, the same doctor who performed Bonds' earlier surgery.

Bonds, 40, has "experienced periods of swelling in his knee following an incident when he accidentally hit his knee on a table at SBC Park Feb. 4. Neither rest nor his current rehabilitation program has helped alleviate the periodic swelling," the Giants said in a release.

That's the problem with having an old team. If you get injured, it takes longer to heal.

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Billy Koch was just released by the Blue Jays. Billy Beane sure knew when to let him go.

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Statsology is covering the Fantasy Sports Trade Conference XI. They have a nice write up of the legal manuvering going on over fantasy licenses.

As one audience member summed up: If MLBAM winds up in court and loses, they'll get nothing. So they're going to want to take their time.

It's my belief they will lose in court, which is why they should make it real easy and cheap to license stats and names.

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J.C Bradbury pens a post for Baseball Analysts showing the positive effect Leo Mazzone has on the Braves pitchers. It looks like if you pitch for Leo, you'll lower your ERA over 1/2 a run on average.

Correction: Originally, this post said lower your ERA by 1/2 on average. It should be 1/2 a run on average.

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The hearings are underway. I don't have C-Span3 on my satellite, so I'm wathcing on the net.

Tom Davis bastardized Casey at the Bat in his opening remarks. That takes him down a notch in my view, as it's my favorite poem.

Jim Bunning is testifying, saying in his day ballplayers got worse as they got older, not better. He mentioned Hank Aaron and Willie Mays and how they didn't hit more HR in their late 30's than in their late 20's. That may be true, but Aaron came awfully close. He hit 163 from age 26 to age 29, and 159 from age 36 to age 39. I wouldn't say that's worse.

Bunning is for the nuclear option. He wants all record wiped out for players who have used steroids. He sounds like an old ballplayer who wants to protect his peers, especilly Maris and Aaron.

I'll keep updating this thread.

Update: 11:15 AM EST. The panel has taken a 30 minute recess to go vote. I still don't understand the hangup on a two-year suspension, just because the Olympics do that. The NFL has a four game suspension. They seem fine with that. We shouldn't be trying to drive people out of the game, we should be helping them to stay clean.

Update: The parents of teenagers who committed suicide after using steroids are testifying now.

Update: 12:10 PM EST. Dr. Nora Volkow of the NIH is testifying on the effects of steroid abuse. She's saying that the dose athletes take are about 100 times the dose used in therapy. Another reason I'd like to see steroids taken under a doctor's care.

Update: 12:15 PM EST. Dr. Gary Wadler, NYU is now testifying. He works for the Olympics on doping.

Update: 12:19 PM EST. Dr. Wadler brings up amphetamines. Good. Someone should have asked Bunning if he thought his teammates who used speed were cheating.

Update: 12:23 PM EST. Dr. Kirk Brower, University of Michigan pyschiatrist, is now trying to show a slide show, but it's not working. He's talking about the psychological effects of steroids on people and teenagers specificially.

Update: 12:27 PM EST. Kirk is talking about double blind studies of the effect of steroid withdrawl on depression. 10% were found to go into severe depression. The doses were high, 5 to 6 times a theraputic dose. Athletes take up to 100 times the theraputic dose, and the size of the dose effects the development of depression.

Update: 12:34 PM EST. Dr. Elliot Pellman is addressing the two year ban. He's saying that a lot of positive tests come from accidental ingestion of contaminated supplements. He's saying that's why a first positive shouldn't lead to a long term ban, and he thinks that the MLB program compares favorably to the NFL's program. Finally someone is talking sense.

Update: Pellman is the cheif medical advisor for MLB. He's also worked with the NFL on the same problem.

Update: 12:45 PM EST. Pellman is being questioned, and is asking the Congressman why all precursors weren't banned last year?

Update: 1:18 PM EST. Tom Lantos: Capitalism is to blame!

Update: 1:40 PM EST. Pellman was being pressed on loopholes in the agreement. He says the intention is to suspend and make the suspension public. He promises to resign if that doesn't happen.

Update: 1:45 PM EST. Sosa has issued a statement that he's clean. This article is written as if these event have happened, but people have just issued statements at this point.

Update: 1:47 PM EST. Olney is reporting that Gammons was talking to some players from the Angels, and they said the agreement they saw had nothing about a fine. But the agreement Congress has does mention a fine.

Update: 2:09 PM EST. That panel is over, and it was probably the most important one of the day, although it won't get the most publicity. There were two interesting conflicts of interest on that panel. Gary Wadler runs testing labs and wants MLB out of the business of testing. That, of course, would give him more business. Pellman advises MLB, so I expected his answers to put MLB in a positive light.

That said, I thought Pellman was the more interesting witness. He's the only one that disagreed with the general consensus. He appeared to have a lot of credibility in my view. I can't wait to see how Manfred and Selig explain the difference in language about the fines.

Update: 2:31 PM EST. Canseco is putting on a good act. He's even crying. Doesn't he know there's no crying in baseball?

Update: 2:34 PM EST. Jim Sharp (Sosa's lawyer?) is reading the statement for Sammy Sosa. Sosa is sitting next to him.

Update: 2:38 PM EST. Mark McGwire was just sworn. McGwire's crying, too. I guess teenagers committing suicide even get to these guys. The bash brothers are the balling brothers today.

Update: 2:40 PM EST. McGwire won't name names.

Update: 2:41 PM EST. McGwire doesn't like Canseco's book. I guess they're not close brothers.

Update: 2:43 PM EST. McGwire is directing his foundation to fight steroid use among young people. Now Palmeiro is up, and he's saying he's never used steroids.

Update: 2:49 PM EST. Schilling up now. He says steroids are not necessary for success. He's also warning the committee about glorifying Canseco.

Update: 2:52 PM EST. Schilling thinks that public disclosure of steroid use is the real teeth of the program. He says that being labeled a cheater is the biggest deterrent of the program.

Update: 2:54 PM EST. Frank Thomas sworn in via video link.

Update: 2:56 PM EST. Thomas says he never used steroids. The committee is going into a 20 minute recess.

Update: 3:20 PM EST. I was just looking at the NY Times, and found this picture of Selig. Do the photographers just wait for the worst look they can get on Bud's face? Selig should learn to smile through everything.

Update: 4:00 PM EST. They're still in recess. I'm wondering if the committee members are all getting autographs? :-)

Update: 4:15 PM EST. The committee is back and they're questioning the players.

Update: 4:18 PM EST. Palmeiro just said he never saw steroids used in the club house. Now Schilling is saying he grossly overstated the problem. He says he had suspicions, but he never knew that players were actually using.

Update: 4:23 PM EST. I don't think these legislatures get that suspending someone for two years from baseball suspends them for life. It's awfully hard to come back successfully from a year off; I can't see coming back from a two-year layoff and having any kind of career left.

Update: 4>29 PM EST. McGwire is refusing to talk about his Andro use.

Update: Canseco is being called on the contradictions of his book and his testimony. In his book, he says that use by all athletes would be good. Now he's saying they're bad.

Update: 4:45 PM EST. Someone just asked the players if they thought federal legislation could solve the problem, and they all said yes. Just what we need, more regulation. They should leave that question to their union.

Update: 4:47 PM EST. A South Park moment. McGwire was asked what his message to children would be. He said, "Steroids are bad."

Update: 5:06 PM EST. They should have fans testify. Why don't they have a panel of bloggers? There are bloggers on all sides of this issue. And we write because we're huge fans. Why not let us voice our opinions on this?

Update: 5:07 PM EST. Gil Gutknecht gets the Maris asterisk wrong. There never was an asterisk. The record book lists records for 162 game season and 154 game seasons where the 162 game record is higher. If someone breaks the doubles record, the same thing will happen.

Update: 5:10 PM EST. Now the players are saying baseball can clean itself up. 25 Minutes ago they said Congressional legislation would help.

Update: 5:13 PM EST. Schilling just flat out called Canseco a liar.

Update: 5:15 PM EST. Canseco just said his book drove steroids from the game! Amazing, a book that wasn't published until last month drove the rate down in 2004!

Update: 5:27 PM EST. Sosa is saying nothing. It would be nice if someone pressed him on some issue, like why we should trust his statement if he's a known cheater?

Update: 5:41 PM EST. McGwire was just asked flat out if he used anything other than andro and he refused to answer.

Update: 6:00 PM EST. ESPN is taking a break. I must admit, the players are pretty boring. I wonder if they're really going to get to Selig and others tonight? It's getting late.

Update: 6:32 PM EST. Just back from dinner. Selig is reading his statement.

Update: 6:36 PM EST. This is an important statement by Selig:

Some have suggested that greater penalties, particularly for first offenders, would be in order. With the guidance of my medical advisors, however, I agreed to the lesser penalties on the theory that behavior modification should be the most important goal of our policy and that the penalties in our new policy were well-designed to serve that goal.

I agree with this 100%.

Manfred is now reading his statement.

Update: 6:39 PM EST. Manfred is saying that all players who test positive will be suspended. That's the understanding of the owners and the players. He says the fine language should have been removed. The players union has agreed not to challenge any suspensions due to a positive drug test.

Update: 6:49 PM EST. Fehr is on now. He's not reading his statement, but it is being entered into the record.

Update: 6:56 PM EST. Fehr agrees that the fine is not an option. He says the players will be suspended and the union will not challenge.

Update: Fehr brings up gene doping. It isn't happening now, but it will happen in the future. Alderson is speaking now.

Update: Alderson Canseco was a developing star before he claims to have started using steroids.

Update: 7:08 PM EST. There is an appeal period if there is a positive test. That's good. This is the first time I've heard that a player can appeal a positive result.

Update: 7:11 PM EST. Manfred the fines are staying in to deal with drugs of abuse, not steroids.

Update: 7:20 PM EST. Interesting exchange between Waxman and Selig. Waxman says while the CBA didn't let Selig test everyone in the early 1990s, the MLB Constitution did let the commissioner investigate an individual if there was probable cause.

Waxman brought up the Manny Alexander case. Manfred said they did investigate, they did test, and Alexander was clean, so there was no suspension.

Update: 7:26 PM EST. Fehr doesn't want to destroy careers with tougher penalties.

Update: 7:28 PM EST. Batgirl has a re-enactment of the hearings. (Via Teepee Talk)

Update: 7:33 PM EST. Chris Shays is a blowhard.

Update: 7:37 PM EST. Elijah Cummings has no idea what rope-a-dope is.

Update: 7:47 PM EST Paul Kanjorski is making a calm point that other congressmen were ranting over. He wants to know why players who test positive aren't turned over for prosecution. Unfortunately, he used a speech rather than asking a question, so it's not getting answered.

Update: 7:56 PM EST. Fehr says that players aren't immune from prosecution. If they get thrown in jail, they don't get work and they don't get paid.

Update: 8:24 PM EST. This is getting boring now. It's the same thing over and over. The committee can't seem to get their heads around the idea that they got a draft, and the draft keeps changing. Advice to any one appearing before Congress: Don't send a draft of a document!

Update: 9:00 PM EST. Ruppersberger asked Selig if he would use tougher testing as a deal breaker in the next CBA. Selig was elusive. Fehr is elusive on the question as well.

Update: 9:12 PM EST. Waxman wants new leadership for baseball (I assume he means a new commissioner). While I agree with that for other reasons, Waxman is just grandstanding here.

Update: 9:15 PM EST. Thank goodness it's over.

To sum up, Congress doesn't believe baseball is doing enough. Baseball believes it's made great strides, and everyone should let testing go ahead to see if it works.

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Batgirl has announced her next read in her book club: Moneyball. I'll have to join that discussion.

She also reproduces (without linking, and I can't find it) an article about the Blue Jays abandoning the supposed Moneyball offense (get on base, hit home runs) for the agreesive Twins offense (don't get on base but run really fast). The article is based on criticism in the 2005 Baseball Prospectus.

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Balls, Sticks and Stuff offer an editorial cartoon. It's quite funny.

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Dick Radatz passed away yesterday after an accidental fall.

Radatz regularly pitched multiple innings of relief, long before pitchers evolved into one-inning specialists.

"He was a setup man, closer, finisher all in one," said Bill Lee, a former Red Sox pitcher and good friend of Radatz. "He was the best reliever of all time, for a short period of time."

Radatz, who was godfather to Lee's daughter, has a picture of himself in his basement signed by Mickey Mantle. The Yankees legend signed it "The greatest I ever faced," said Lee, noting that Radatz struck out Mantle 54 times in 67 attempts.

Here's his page from BaseballReference.com. Those are impressive strikeout numbers for his first four seasons.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

The Pledge Drive continues. So far, 132 readers have contributed nearly $1500. You have my gratitude.

Over twenty eight thousand unique URLs hit the site this month. So the 132 donated are just a tiny fraction of the people who could be contributing. If each of those unique URLs resulted in a $1 donation, I could run this blog for a year. If 10% gave $10, the result would be the same.

Today is a really good day to donate. It's my birthday, a birthday I share with a number of baseball players, including Robb Quinlan who may be the starting third baseman for the Angels this season. I wish I had his OBA!

The last sixteen days have shown you what's possible with a full time blog. The Day By Day Database is a research tool that's never been available before for free on the web. And we've only begun to scratch the surface of it's functionality. The charts of defensive range have gotten good reviews; Studes and Dave Stasiuk have lent their expertise in the field, and soon we'll have charts online for every player.

If you've learned something from this site, if you've chuckled, even if you've been outraged, please consider a donation in any amount. Those 132 readers took action. Don't let them stand alone.

Baseball Musings has reached it's monthly limit on the Amazon Honor System, but you can still donate via PayPal by clicking the button below:

Thanks again to all who have donated!

May you have warm words on a cold evening, a full moon on a dark night, and a smooth road all the way to your door.

There seems to be a difference of opinion on the penalties for a first time positive test:

The policy says that the penalty for a first positive test for steroids is "a 10-day suspension or up to a $10,000 fine," and there is no public identification of players who are fined rather than suspended. Baseball has said that first-time offenders would be publicly identified as having failed a test in addition to a suspension.

Davis said a player could buy his way out of a violation. "What's $10,000 to Barry Bonds?" he asked. He also noted that there could be no punishment at all. Olympic athletes, by contrast, are suspended for two years for a first positive drug test.

Baseball, however, disagrees:

Rob Manfred, baseball's executive vice president for labor, said that the language about penalties had been left in the new policy from the 2002 version and that the conclusions being drawn were inaccurate.

"In retrospect, that language probably should have been changed, but there is no debate about the substance," Manfred said. "Once a positive test is established, the union has surrendered its right and the commissioner can and will impose a 10-day suspension. It's automatic. There's no debate about it. The parties understood at the table that there would be a 10-day suspension for a positive test."

Discussion of this issue should be very interesting tomorrow.

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Mr. Snitch pens a long and thoughtful post on the national pastime, fate and deception.

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The Day By Day Database has new functionality. Now you can specify all games, just home games, or just road games.

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The Baseball Analysts invite Jon Weisman and John Perricone to discuss the NL West. I disagree with the consensus that the Giants will win the division. I believe the team is too old to be consistent throughout the year. I see it more as a race between the Dodgers and the Padres, with the Giants third.

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Mike M at East Coast Agony is in agony over Steve Trachsel's herniated disk.

Farewell, Trachsel, you unremarkable, deliberate, and crucial component. Your herniated disc has manifested itself at precisely the right time: too early to interrupt a scramble for the pennant, but not too late to lower the expectations of fans to where they belong.

Somehow, I can't get myself worked up over Steve Trachsel. He's appeared to be good the last few years, and I suspect it's Shea. Last year, he had a 3.06 ERA at home, 5.65 on the road. Maybe if the Mets used him in a home/road platoon in the fifth slot he'd be okay. It really shouldn't be difficult to replace his 10 win shares from last season.

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I'm watching Connected Coast to Coast, and the hosts are not well informed. They blame Lyle Alzado's death on steroids, but:

But in 1992, seven years after playing in his last regular-season game, Alzado died from brain lymphoma, a rare form of cancer. He was 43. Although there is no medical link between steroids and brain lymphoma, Alzado was certain the drugs were responsible for his cancer. He became a symbol of the dangers of steroid abuse.

This is really poor reporting.

Update: They didn't talk to Jay enough. They were more interested in Chris Shays. Shays wants players who test positive to give up the names of the people supplying them with the drugs.

One good Q & A with Shays:

Monica Crowley: Congressman, are you hearing from your constituents about this issue, is there a lot of public outrage about it?

Chris Shays: I wouldn't say there's a lot of public outrage, but what is interesting is I had a great hearing on Monday about how we're training Iraqi troops and the border police - the border patrol and police and I didn't have many people paying attention to that hearing, so I would say the press has been very interested in this issue.

The press has never liked the spike in offense that happened in the early 1990's. Remember how they kept talking about the ball being juiced 10 years ago? They never bothered to do scientific research, it just had to be true. When someone finally did look into it, they found that the balls were legal. Why don't they like the increase in offense?

It seems to happen all the time. The press didn't like Maris breaking Ruth's record. He's playing 162 games! Is it that the current crop of writers grew up with Aaron's push toward 714, and don't want to see that overcome? Smaller parks, bigger athletes, juiced balls, it's not fair to Hammering Hank! We'll just ignore that the records of the 60's and 70's were tainted by amphetamine use. Despite all their screaming, they haven't pulled a lot of fans along for the ride.

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There are problems testing for steroids that I've discussed in other posts, mostly in letting a lot of true positives go by in order to reduce false positives. One of the questions I'm sure Congress will try to address with hearings is how widespread the use of steroids is in major league baseball. And yet, I'm sure we have the answer to that question in the data that's already been gathered.

We're looking at that data from the wrong perspective. We see numbers quoted indicating 5-7% of players tested positive in 2003. But we also know the test produces a lot of false negatives. The test for testosterone looks at the ratio of that hormone to epitestosterone. The normal ratio is 1:1, but 6:1 is considered positive. You can be doping, have a level of 4:1, and be considered clean. In fact, the way to beat the test is to keep your level below six. You still get the boost, but you don't get caught.

So in 2003 and 2004, I assume all players had their T/E ratio measured. I would expect those ratios to be normally distributed; therefore we can describe the distribution by calculating the mean and standard deviation.

Meanwhile, someone somewhere probably knows the mean and standard deviation for the general male population. Given that data, it's easy to calculate the probability of T/E ratios in baseball players being the same as the general population! Low probabilities would indicate widespread use of testosterone.

You see, one player having a T/E ratio of 3:1 is just random chance. One hundred players having a 3:1 ratio is a trend. It's the Bill James idea of evaluting defense by starting with the team and working back to the players. Study the population. That will tell you if there is widespread abuse. And it will tell you at what level the abuse is occuring. If the distribution shows abuse at 3:1 then set the positive level there.

Singling out individuals with tests full on uncertainty does not fix the problem. The tests are not conclusive enough. A study of the population is more likely to be conclusive in showing whether or not abuse is widespread, and at what levels the abuse is occuring. We would finally know the extent of doping.

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The Cub Reporter looks at the competition for the Cubs closer job.

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The Washington Nationals are trying to change Nick Johnson's batting stance. They want him to close the stance and eliminate movement in his lower body. I'm not sure Tom McCraw explains it well, however:

"It's going to take a while," hitting coach Tom McCraw said, "because first of all, you've got three different changes to make. You've got the psychological change to make. You've got the physical change to make. And then you've got the mental change to make. . . . First you've got to get him mechanically to where you want him. Then you got to get him comfortable in that slot. Then you go to work on the head -- knowing what you want to do."

Psychological and mental seem like one change to me. :-) The physical change seems a lot tougher. A baseball swing is something that is developed through years of practice. Can it be overhauled in one spring? I'll agree with McCraw here:

"You've got to retrain the muscles," McCraw said, "because right now, he'll start creeping out [to an open stance] . . . and I'll have to remind him to bring it back. That's where his muscles are used to going. They're comfortable there, so they go right back to that area. That's where having more time is going to be effective."

Johnson said he's willing to take that time.

"I think I'm already a lot quicker to the ball," he said. "We'll see."

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The New York Times was given a letter by Stanley Brand, attorney for Major League Baseball, with some details of the drug testing results from 2003 and 2004.

There were 73 positive tests for the steroid nandrolone among baseball players in 2003, but only one for nandrolone in 2004, according to a five-page cover letter attached to about 400 pages of documents that Major League Baseball gave the House Government Reform Committee this week.

...

Dr. Gary I. Wadler, a steroids expert at New York University who has been called to testify to the committee on Thursday, said the dramatic drop in nandrolone could have two explanations, but he said it did not assure him that baseball has solved its steroids problem.

It could have been that many more players in 2003 than 2004 were injecting Deca-durabolin, one of the most powerful and long-lasting anabolic steroids, which contains nandrolone, Dr. Wadler said. Or, he said, a more likely explanation could be that players started avoiding dietary supplements that contained a related chemical, 19-norandrostenedione.

Dr. Wadler said steroids users would know to avoid the injectable form of nandrolone because it is long-lasting in the body.

Congress acted last year to add 19-norandrostenedione to the list of banned substances, effective this year.

This passage points out how difficult it is to know for sure what's going on. 19-Norandrostenedione was legal; when in became illegal, use dropped. But players also could have been using it unawares if it were in dietary supplements!

This is one reason I argue against draconian punishments for a first offense. All we ever get from these tests are probabilities that players are cheating. It's difficult in many cases to get a clear cut answer.

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It's a good week for baseball bloggers on TV. Jay Jaffe of Futility Infielder writes:

I just got word that I've been invited to go on MSNBC's Connected Coast to Coast with Ron Reagan and Monica Crowley tomorrow (Wednesday) at Noon EST/9 AM PST. According to the producer "we are doing a segment on the latest with steroids and baseball and are also looking for a blogger to give a unique perspective on this topic."

It's a live via satellite setup. No, I've never been on national TV before, live or otherwise. I am going to practice not hyperventilating for the rest of the evening.

please set your TiVos and VCRs (does anybody still use those?) accordingly...

Good luck, Jay!

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Those who are waiting to hear players testify in the BALCO case may never get the chance. Greg Anderson is working on a plea bargain. My guess is that Conte will get a deal, also, especially if part of Anderson's deal is to testify against Conte.

Prosecutors really prefer a deal to a trial. It saves time and money, and they get one in the Win column. I'm not going to be surprised if this never goes to trial.

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The Detroit Tigers Weblog has thoughts on the release of Alex Sanchez.

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Bryan Smith at Baseball Analysts has high praise for Doug Melvin. I'm not quite as high on Melvin as Bryan; he's been at it a while with not a lot of success. But there's a lot that can go right with the club, and I've liked the moves the team has made the last two winters. With the NL Central being pretty weak below the Cardinals, it's possible the Brewers could finish second or third.

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Chan Ho Park appears to be getting good results with his new pitch:

On Monday, at least, there were hints that Park has the ability to turn in consistent outings. At least if he trusts the two-seam sinking fastball, he does. It was his predominant pitch in four crisp shutout innings against the Los Angeles Angels in the Rangers' 10-6 loss.

He needed only 37 pitches to work through his four innings. He never had a three-ball count. He got eight of 12 outs on groundballs.

"He definitely trusted it more," said catcher Rod Barajas, who estimated that 80 percent of Park's fastballs were two-seamers rather than his old favorite, the four-seamer. "In the past, he's thrown it, but didn't really make the pitches. He had control of it and he set things up early. It made it easier for him to use other pitches. It made them be even more aggressive."

Time will tell if Park can be consistent with the two-seamer. He's facing losing his job if he can't.

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The Day By Day Database is coming along. Their are clearer instructions on how to use the pages, and there is a summary of averages at the bottom of the data table. Start by choosing a player here.

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I just watched Will Carroll on The Big Idea with Donny Deutsch. Most of the show was devoted to an interview with Jose Canseo. Donny Deutsch, the host, appeared to be in the interpolating from small sample sizes school. So-and-so took steroids and got sick, so they must be bad. Will did a good job arguing against that point. I was also impressed with Jay Crawford, from ESPN's Cold Pizza. He wasn't buying into the hysteria, and seemed to have given the subject a lot of critical thought.

Deutsch also joined the "Penalties aren't stiff enough" chorus. I'm still surprised that people think the MLB penalty system is weak. As far as I know, most companies deal with employee drug problems not by firing or suspending, but requiring treatment. It's very difficult to fire someone, both on the employee and the manager. There has to be room for forgiveness and redemption. I actually thought the origianl policy had this right; you don't get outed as a user until your second positive. Players were given a chance to get clean. (That's not to say there weren't other problems with that policy such as frequency of tests.)

This goes to a point that Jay Crawford made; that these hearings may be glorifying steroid use. What if McGwire gets up and testifies that he used PEDs? He doesn't look like a monster. When he set the single season home run record in 1998, he wasn't raging; he was hugging everybody. He hugged his son, he hugged his teammates, he even hugged the guy who was battling him for the record. He's rich and famous. Women ask Tom Glavine, "Where's Mark?" Some young people might see all that as a good thing. They might be better off wondering about the truth. Or Congress might be better off bringing up people who have been hurt by steroids so the ugly side is seen.

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I've been working on getting an interactive database of daily results working. I now have daily batting stats for players from 1974 to 2004 available. You can pick any time frame for an individual player. This is just a first pass, so there's a lot of functionality I have not added. But you can get a taste.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711.

Follow this link to get a list of players. Choose one, and you'll get a new screen with biographical information and a form to choose the start and end dates. The dates, by default, are the first and last game for that player in the system. If you type in two legitimate dates (in the form m/d/yyyy) you'll get a table of his accomplishments during the time period. Enjoy! It's your pledge dollars at work!

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Just a reminder, Will Carroll will be on CNBC at 10 PM EST tonight. Set your Tivos.

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Mark Prior is injured again:

Cubs ace Mark Prior will be out indefinitely because of inflammation in his right elbow, the latest injury to one of Chicago's star pitchers.

Kerry Wood, slated to start on Opening Day, is sidelined with bursitis in his right shoulder.

Cubs trainer Mark O'Neal said Monday the 24-year-old Prior has some inflammation in the elbow joint and a little irritation to the ulnar nerve.

This may not be serious, but it has to have Cubs fans worried. This team should have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but if Prior and Wood go down again, I'm not sure they can generate enough offense to win regularly.

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Studes at The Hardball Times looks at what last year's line drives are telling us about the 2005 season. It looks like good news for Derek Lowe.

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If only my day were this much fun... :-)

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YOCO, the college basketball blog is running an NCAA Tournament bracket game for bloggers. I came in 2nd in the ESPN pool one year, so I quite while I was ahead.

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I want to clear up a misconception that about my thoughts on defense that's running through this Sons of Sam Horn thread. Unfortunately, I can't respond there because I'm not a member.

In an interview with Red Sox nation, I wrote:

Johnny Damon was hands down the best outfielder in the AL last year, but keep your eye on Mark Kotsay.

On the SoSH thread, I see this (typo corrected):

As noted in the other Pinto thread, the charts seem to contradict a) his comments in the RSN interview and b)conventional wisdom about many things including Beltran & Damon as defensive studs

As many seem to believe Pinto's ratings are among the best out there, I thought this deserved a thread after having been buried/ignored in the other Pinto thread.

My comments on Damon were based on his defensive win shares. Defensive win shares take into account a number of different elements of defense, including outfielder's arms. PMR is only concerned with turning batted balls into outs.

Secondly, my system is still in development. I'm not convinced I have the correct weighting of parameters yet, especially when win shares says one thing and PMR disagrees on a major aspect of the calculation.

What's clear is the Damon got to more balls than any other AL center fielder. My calculations say he should have gotten to even more, but given that Bill James spent years on the problem and I've spent a couple of months, I'm willing to give win shares the edge when rating the overall defense of a player.

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Looking through the spring training pitching leaders, a couple of lines stand out in the strikeout column (stats through Sunday, March 13th):

Spring 2005	Kent Mercker	Wilfredo Ledezma
Innings	4 2/3	3 1/3
Strikeouts	8	8
Hits	10	7
Hits/Ball In Play	5/8	7/9

Where ball in play = Hits + (IP*3 - K).

Are these pitchers playing without a defense? Normally, high strikeout totals like those are indicative of good performances. But given the way they're being hit when not stiking out batters, one has to wonder what's going on. My guess is that they're striking out the minor leaguers they're facing, but the major leaguers are hammering them.

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A good post in Nationals Journal about how the Washington Nationals have seemed to forget their history as the Expos.

Anyway, the reason for the francais today (sorry, but I don't know how to type that little curli-cue thing under the "c" to make it properly French) is that there has been a steady stream of Montreal-area writers visiting camp in recent days, folks like Serge Touchette from Journal de Montreal, Sean Farrell from the AP, Jeff Blair from the Globe and Mail and Michael Farber from Sports Illustrated. They have all been perfectly congenial to us Washington media members, despite the inherent awkwardness. Though none of them have showed it outwardly, I can feel the sense of loss they must have in seeing their team walk away then show up in someone else's arms. I overheard one of them marvel to another, "It's as if the Montreal Expos never existed." And it's mostly true: There is virtually no evidence around the Nationals' camp that the franchise ever existed as anything besides the Washington Nationals.

I'm not sure what they can do. Maybe arrange to broadcast games in French to Montreal. Maybe they could have the Expos logo somewhere on the scoreboard.

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Via Brew Grit, The NY Daily News pens part one of an excellent investigative piece on the 1990's FBI probe of steroid trafficking. There are allegations that McGwire was using more than andro. In fact, they list his regimen:

The recipe called for 1/2 cc of testosterone cypionate every three days; one cc of testosterone enanthate per week; equipoise and winstrol v, 1/4 cc every three days, injected into the buttocks, one in one cheek, one in the other.

It was the cocktail of a hardcore steroids user, and it is one of the "arrays," or steroid recipes, Mark McGwire used to become the biggest thing in baseball in the 1990s, sources have told the Daily News.

It appears the dealers the FBI were after don't play nice:

The two convicted sources who connected Wenzlaff to Canseco and McGwire declined to be named, saying they feared retribution from some of the steroid dealers they informed on. But two FBI sources confirmed the men's identities and said they provided credible information throughout the operation and, like Wenzlaff, avoided jail time for their cooperation. One FBI source also said the men's fears about retribution are well-founded.

"That's why I'm amazed at what Jose said in the book," Wenzlaff says. "There are some people who might come after him."

It's also becoming clear that Canseco was a major vector for steroids coming into baseball (Emphasis added):

Stejskal, the agent who told the News last month that he warned Major League Baseball about a rising steroid problem at least 10 years ago, declined interview requests for this story. After he was quoted last month he was told not to speak to the media anymore. But before he was admonished, he told the Daily News what he learned about Canseco during the investigation.

"Canseco was one of those people that we heard would take orders from other people who would say 'Hey, can you get me some of this?' and he would do that. We didn't characterize that as being a dealer. That was just somebody acting as a middle man," said Stejskal, who put Major League Baseball security in touch with Wenzlaff to discuss Canseco's burgeoning steroid allegations about a year ago. "We were a little skeptical at first because Wenzlaff kinda comes off as he has a high opinion of himself. So consequently we weren't quite sure. But as we did some more checking and we were able to get his phone records and things like that, it was clear he did have a relationship with Canseco."

In addition, an undercover agent saw a photo of Wenzlaff with Canseco, recorded Wenzlaff on a wiretap talking about providing steroids to Canseco, and the FBI found Canseco's private phone number in Wenzlaff's phone book after they arrested him.

In hindsight, it might have done a world of good to look at Canseco as a dealer. If Hal Chase had been driven out of baseball 100 years ago, the gambling scandals of the teens might not have happened. Canseco was dealing with unsavory characters. I wouldn't be surprised if some of those people had gambling ties. That would have been enough for discipline by the Commissioner's office. But the players didn't want testing, and MLB didn't want a scandal, so nothing happened.

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Phreakin' Phils is a new Phillies blog. Don't miss his piece on what would have happened if the choice for the Phanatic went in a different direction. :-)

(Hat tip: Balls, Sticks and Stuff)

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The readers and friends of Baseball Musings continue their generosity. Thru March 12th, 121 readers have donated $1383. Thank you all so very much!

That only represents a fraction of the people who visit his site. So far in March, over twenty-two thousand unique URLs have viewed Baseball Musings. If each of those visitors had donated $1, Baseball Musings could go on for a year. Help this become an independent blog. Don't let those 121 people stand alone. Instead of 11² readers, let's see 11³ readers donating.

Please click here for the original pledge drive appeal.

Josh Beckett was very stingy today, using only 62 pitches to complete six innings. Jack McKeon was impressed:

"He was economical with his pitches," said McKeon, who will make either Beckett or right-hander A.J. Burnett his opening day starter.

"Him and Burnett, they've been accustomed their whole life to seeing how many they can strike out. That ain't the name of the game. With his kind of stuff, the hitters will strike themselves out With his kind of stuff, he can get through eight or nine innings."

Fewer pitchs will take a starter deeper into a game, keeping the dregs of the bullpen sitting.

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Scott Craven pens a nice essay on the hold of baseball over its fans.

There are other sports that may be considered more popular than baseball when judged by the numbers. TV ratings for football are almost unapproachable. NASCAR races routinely draw more than 100,000 fans to ovals across the country.

But numbers are too logical to explain our romanticism with baseball, Bellamy says.

"If you go by metrics, by statistics, baseball doesn't do very well," he says. "But the sport is about much more than that. It brings about feelings that are hard to quantify."

Baseball is Coca-Cola. It may not win the taste test, but it's fans are deeply loyal.

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Steve, in the comments to this post, suggested I add the difference between Actual and Predicted to the graph. Here's the chart for Beltran's medium fly balls with the difference added. It looks like it makes it easier to see where he's above and below the predicted curve.

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The Score Bard takes on Genesis. As for the firmament, I see that it was good!

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Reynel Pinto was re-assigned by the Cubs. I'm going to keep my eye on him. He has great strikeout numbers, but walks too many people. Still, with the K's, he has a chance to be much better than the only other Pinto to play major league ball.

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Via Palmball.com, Willie Randolph's rules for the Mets appear to reflect his years in the Yankees organization.

Personal Appearance and Travel Rules and Regulations:

Minimum standards of attire when traveling to out-of-town games are as follows: dress shoes, casual shoes, tennis shoes, shirt with collar, jeans, wash and wear pants, jogging suits. No sandals, T-shirts or shorts.

Hair and mustaches are to be kept neat. No beards. Earrings are NOT permitted while you are in uniform.

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Dan Agonistes writes a very good piece on how Zach Greinke has old pitcher skils.

While this is not a perfect analogy by any means (essentially because "old-pitcher skills" are not negative as are some "old-hitter skills") I think what Greinke has in abundance are “old-pitcher skills”. The ability to locate his pitches and change speeds are skills that one normally finds in crafty veteran pitchers who have had to adjust to declining physical skills or injuries. Pitchers like Frank Tanana, who became an off-speed pitcher after being loaded with innings early in his career, come to mind. What Greinke does not possess are skills which include velocity, movement, and an “out” pitch. These are the kinds of skills that often get young pitchers promoted in the hopes that they’ll develop control and “learn how to pitch”. By all accounts Greinke has already learned to pitch to a large degree and so his ceiling is not as high as a pitcher with comparable statistics who got the job done with a nasty slider and a 98 mile per hour fastball.

So in short, I’m not saying that Greinke won’t be even better in 2005. Indeed, his skills should serve to make him a much more consistent pitcher in the long run, a fact that PECOTA captured in its assessment that he has a 0% chance of collapse (along with his few innings at a young age, and no injury history). However, I am speculating that he is closer to his maximum performance at his young age than some people might think. Only time will tell of course.

Greinke struck out a little over six per nine innings last season. That's fine, but he's not the sort of pitcher that blows opponents away. Watch his home run totals; if he gets those down, he can be Greg Maddux.

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Will Carroll hits the airwaves Monday on "Big Idea with Donny Deutsch" on CNBC. He'll be there with Jose Canseco. I suspect the topic will be steroids. :-)

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I received this press release announcing a play about revolves around the ball that killed Ray Chapman. Here it is in full:

That’s One Foul Ball
The Information She Carried
By David L. Williams
Beginning March 24th

FBERUARY 14TH, 2005 (New York, NY) – W and W Productions is proud to present the world premiere of the sport’s memorabilia aficionados meets conspiracy theorists play The Information She Carried by David L. Williams at the Access Theater (380 Broadway, 4th floor). Performances begin Thursday, Match 24th, open March 25th, and end April 16th, running Wednesday – Saturday at 8 PM with an added performance Sunday, April 10th at 7 PM. Tickets are $15 each and can be reserved by calling 212-714-5363.

In 1920 Ray Chapman became the only player in the history of Major League Baseball to have been killed by a baseball in a game. Many years later, a sportswriter/ high school baseball coach and current owner of the collectible, sent one of his players to his car to grab a ball to practice with. The kid innocently took the death ball instead. On the very first pitch, the ball was hit, went up the third baseline, took a very funny hop, and seriously injured the third baseman. These are historical facts.

The Information She Carried surrounds the story of lifelong conspiracy theorist SHARON NORTH who will not be deceived anymore! She needs to know the truth behind some of the world’s most notorious cover-ups – JFK, Roswell, Moon Landing, Alien Autopsy, 9/11, etc. Having concocted a well thought out theory that the “Chapman Death Ball” was actually the work of the infamous Illuminati and holds unspeakable power, she aims to steal it, and then trade it for the answers she has so longed for. Having arranged a meeting, Sharon begins to realize the truth about where she is and the strange woman speaking to her, and tries desperately to change the way things will turn out, hoping that she still might discover one bit of truth.

Playwright David L. Williams is a graduate of Cornell University, a member of the Dramatist Guild and the author of more than 16 plays. Some of his works include: the Riverside Stage Company Founder's award-winning Ampersand, and four winners of the Heerman's McCalmon Playwriting Contest, The Murder of Gonzago, Behind The Nine Ball, Near Tragedy, and Ingulf. Recently he wrote the book to the musical Tess' Last Night as part of 2003's New York International Fringe Festival.

”In an increasingly uncertain world, anything that can connect the dots and explain things away becomes more and more reassuring,” says playwright David L. Williams. “Within a few days of the Asian tsunami disaster, I was already reading postings on the internet of people who were blaming the Bush administration's environmental policies. People would rather believe there is a powerful group of sinister people plotting to do them harm than have to face the fact that we have no control.”

The Information She Carried is being directed by Carolyn Malone. The cast includes Breanna Pine, Christine Carroll, Christopher Drescher, Judson Jones, Christa Kimlicko Jones and Matthew Morgan.

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Phil Allard has an interview up with the always enjoyable Bill Lee. Here's something I didn't know:

Phil Allard: Your aunt, Annabelle Lee, was one of the main characters described in "A League of Their Own.” Did she teach you how to pitch? Did she shape your life?

BILL LEE: She taught me how to throw the screwball and the overhand curve and so did my father. They were both great like that. But my aunt was left-handed, so I mimicked her pretty good. She did shape my life; I’ve been drinking rum ever since.

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Fourth Outfielder is a new blog at All-Baseball.com written by Tom Meagher. It looks like his focus will be on the Dodgers. Stop by and say hi.

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Futility Infielder, commenting on an Aaron Gleeman post, points to a course offered at Tufts entitled "The Analysis of Baseball: Statistics and Sabermetrics." That's just way cool.

From that site, however, I found a link to A Graphical History of Baseball. One of my favorite charts is this one, showing the improvement in fielding averages over time. I believe the increase in fielding percentage is the most compelling reason for believing players are always getting better; the players of today have always been better than the players of yesteryear. Batting and pitching tend to even each other out; it's hard to see improvement in one over time when both are improving, keeping the averages about the same. But nothing works against fielding. Yes, part of it is better equipment and better grounds. But the constant rise indicates that baseball players are just getting better with time.

Update: Fixed broken link.

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Statsology has news on MLBAM taking over the collection of minor league statistics. It looks like we'll be able to get in game data for the minors as easily as for the majors now. With the exception of the fantasy licenses, I really like the direction MLBAM is taking. They're using the internet to try to increase the popularity of baseball world wide.

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Carlos Beltran has a dubious locker.

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There was actually a hearing on steroids yesterday in the US House by a totally different committee:

It was coincidental that the Energy and Commerce subcommittee had scheduled its own hearing for yesterday on steroids. It focused not just on baseball, but on steroid use in professional football and among college and high school athletes.

They also had someone with a scientific background to put testing in perspective:

Charles Yesalis, a Penn State health policy professor and sports-drug expert, told the subcommittee that a big problem is that drug testing is not a perfect science. "Just because you test negative does not mean you are a clean athlete. We are limited to what is technologically available," Yesalis said.

What I don't understand is why so many people think the drug testing policy has no teeth:

"The real deterrent is these public figures will be outed," Coonelly said. "In many circles, Sammy Sosa, who otherwise has a Hall of Fame career, is known as a cheater because he used a cork bat. It means a lot more than a slap on the wrist to be branded as a cheater," he said.

But several subcommittee members said embarrassing players was not enough. Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican, characterized baseball's punishment for first-time steroid-policy violators - a 10-day suspension - as "a slap on the wrist."

We don't even know if the original plan was going to work, because it was changed before we really got a chance to see what would happen. We have one data point, where the percentage of players testing positive went from 5-7% in 2003 to 1-2% in 2004, the first year of penalties.

And since when is a ten-game suspension a slap on the wrist? How many teams can afford to lose a star for ten games? I don't believe you can call up a replacement during a suspension, so the whole team has to play short-handed. You're really punishing 25 players, not just one. These politicians should get a clue.

Update: This article by Murray Chass is a must read.

Rob Manfred, the chief labor executive for baseball's owners, said the players were in the committee members' minds when they scheduled the hearing. At a March 2 meeting with committee members, Manfred said, he was told that the hearing would "give players a chance to clear their names."

The remark raised painful echoes from more than 50 years ago, when a fellow named Joe McCarthy, not the manager, held Congressional hearings into another matter and gave people a chance to clear their names (implicating others at the same time).

"Mr. Sosa, are you now or have you ever been a member of the Com ... I mean, a steroids user?"

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I was recently interviewed by Red Sox Nation via e-mail. You can read the transcript here. Thanks to all at Red Sox Nation for your interest!

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An interesting article comparing Petco Park and Citizens Bank Park. It seems the Padres thought about building a pitcher's park on purpose:

Still, the Padres think their task will be easier. "The research we've done, the teams that perennially win are teams that have good pitching," Towers said.

The question then becomes whether it's more difficult to develop pitching in a park that gives away home runs like a guy handing out leaflets on a New York City street corner.

"Ask [Rockies general manager] Dan O'Dowd." Towers said. "I watch what's happened in Colorado, because they're in our division. It's difficult. They've tried it every which way. They tried going with the Blake Street Bombers. That was probably the best years they had. It's hard to attract free-agent pitching. And young pitching, it just kills their confidence.

There's a difference between developing good pitching and having good pitching due to park effects. However, Bill James did research years ago showing that teams playing in pitcher's parks won championships more often. Why? The answer lies in the relationship of runs to winning. If you outscore your opponents by 100 runs in a low run environment, you'll have a better record than if you have the same difference in a high run environment. It's smart of the Padres to notice these details.

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An injury to Kerry Wood has Cubs fans a little nervous.

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Palmball has the story on Scott Kazmir making the Devil Rays rotation. I'm sure Mets fans will be watching this story as closely as the fans of the Devil Rays.

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The Most Valuable Network donated $50 or more sends this dedication:

Dedicated to the fans of the Most Valuable Network in where we'd be nowhere without you.

Fire Brand of the American League is wondering why Curt Schilling is rushing back from his injury and flu:

Curt Schilling is just getting over the flu, has not faced a batter yet, and has 24 days to get ready for Opening Day. Does that inspire confidence? I don’t think so. So here’s a novel concept: if you really want to maximize Curt Schilling’s debut in 2004 and yet want to give him time to get ready, why not wait until April 11th to pitch Schilling? April 11th marks Opening Day for the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, against the New York Yankees.

Evan makes a good case for waiting, and I agree. Schilling, however, is very tough, and my guess is that if he can walk to the mound opening night, he'll be there.

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Based on his batting eye, the Baseball Savant believes Giambi will be a productive player in 2005.

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Sports Law Blog does some research and decides that Congress does have jurisdiction to hold hearings on the issue.

So if the issue goes to court, will Congress or Baseball win in this clash of the titans? I have done a cursory review of the relevant law*, so if I am missing anything, please do correct me. Though unstated in the constitution, it is uncontested that Congress has the power to conduct investigations in accordance with its primary function of passing laws. Thus, if a constitutional law could result from an investigation or hearing, then it appears to be a proper exercise of congressional power. Arguments that legislation will not result, or that the invalid legislation will result, does not relieve Congress of this power. In addition, Congress can hold hearings to determine if existing legislative schemes are functioning as intended. Congress cannot, however, investigate matters of purely private concern.

I've had no doubt Congress could hold such hearings. My question is why? There are more important matters to tend to, and baseball appears to be addressing the problem adequately. Unfortunately, Congressional grandstanding is not a reason to ignore a supoena.

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I was watching a Rangers game recently and heard an interview with Orel Hershiser. He was asked about the rotation, and talked about Chan Ho Park as being contractually in the rotation. The announcer followed up, and Orel basically said that based on ability, Park should not be a starter.

This article from today's Dallas Morning News is along the same lines. Park pitched better yesterday, partly because he's stopped being stubborn about using a two-seam fastball:

The Rangers believe a confident Park can still be an asset to the rotation, but what they've had is three years of stubborn resistance to the two-seamer, perhaps because Park believed he could still retire hitters with the elevated fastball. But in his first start of the spring, the fastball was up, and he gave up five hits and three runs in two innings.

There was a marked difference in the type of fastball he threw Wednesday. When he finally started relying on the two-seamer, he found he could command it. He ended his day by getting Hollandsworth to ground to short.

He called it the best two-seamer he's thrown.

Maybe the Rangers' new blunt-truth approach is getting through.

This appears to be Park's last chance. Either he turns things around or he's out of baseball. And once again, Park's situation demonstrates how important it is to constantly adjust in this game.

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I thought another interesting study using the charts for the Probabilistic Model of Range would be to look at Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran as centerfielders. First, let's look at their overall 2004 performance catching fly balls. Here's Cameron (click on graphs for a larger view):

And here's Beltran:

They look very similar. Cameron has a dip at the top of the curve which I'll come back to. Since these graphs don't tell us much, I though it would be interesting to break them down by batted ball velocity as well. Baseball Info Solutions records three types of velocity -- soft, medium and hard. Let's start with the medium fly balls.

These should be the routine plays. Cameron looks a hair better, but both do a good job of catching what they should catch. Let's move to the hard hit balls, the ones that should be over their heads:

There's a lot of noise in Cameron's data, but Beltran looks like he does well on balls hit deep. Finally, let's look at soft fly balls:

Smaller samples mean more noise, but Cameron appears to have the edge here. My guess is that Beltran plays deeper to be able to get to the deep fly balls, while Cameron takes advantage of his speed to play closer in. Which is better? Those hard hit balls are probably more likely to go for extra bases. We'll need further study to evaluate the tradeoff.

Back to Cameron's dip. Cameron doesn't do as well with balls hit to straight away center as one might expect, especially on soft fly balls. Cameron's tracks flys very differently from most outfielders. I wonder if this causes him to have trouble with balls hit right at him? Does he jump back, then fail to come in? I'd love to hear from Mets fans about this.

Update: There's an excellent post in the comments on the physics of a ball hit directly at a center fielder.

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It looks like a number of blogs have moved from All-Baseball.com to Baseball Toaster. They're using experimental software. I can't wait to see how it develops.

Adjust your book marks and rss feeds accordingly.

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The Baseball Crank takes a look at the chances of Ichiro reaching 3000 hits in the majors. If he can keep his speed, he could do it. But it also makes you wonder, if Ichiro had come to the US earlier, he could have made a run at Rose's hit record.

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The March Pledge drive continues. Yesterday was a good example of what can be accomplished by a full-time blogger. The reactions to these graphs is very positive:

Yes! David, this is the most exciting thing I've ever seen on your site -- and I don't say that lightly. This is a great example of how graphs and charts can show information much more easily than sheer numbers can. This is superb. Congrats.

And:

This is really, really cool. Aside from some reservation I have about what would be expected given random chance (and thus not drawing to direct conclusions on the margins of error), this gives more information that any single number I have ever seen for a defender, and has the potential to be more accurate too.

And:

You should seriously consider publishing a book containing this data for all players. This is cutting edge stuff.

And:

Come on people! Start donating! I'm sure that this is just a small sample of what David has in store for all fo us if we help him work on this site full time. Just imagine a whole site of interactive graphs like this where you can compare players or check out whole teams. He can do it WITH YOUR HELP! So donate already! If you've donate, DONATE AGAIN! Let's get this guy self-employed!

That's just in the comments. From an e-mail:

As someone who likes to take things apart, figure out how they work, then maybe put them together again, I really appreciate your research. I am also a diehard Angels fan, but also a stathead (in God we trust, etc. etc.) and a fan of the game. Your graphs on David Eckstein make me feel a lot better about losing him. I had a feeling that his effective range (getting to the ball and converting it into an out) was limited, and you proved it. It would make me feel even better if you created the same graphs for Orlando Cabrera.

In fact, if you keep up the good work, I’ll gladly donate another $10.00. If you created custom graphs for players of my choosing, I’d pay you for that, too.

And from the web:

That's just it. Before today, it was just a number.

Today David broke that barrier. He's graphically represented the defensive capabilities of players. If you're a baseball fan/stathead, this is amazing stuff.

You can be part of this work with a donation. We passed the $1000 mark yesterday, but that's still from only a handful of readers. Remember, if everyone who visits in March gives $1, this site will run for a year. If every gave $10, it would run indefinitely. Remember, there are perks at $50 and $500 dollars. Let's do this together. Click the button below to donate:

And my deepest thanks to all who have donated so far. It's an honor to share my thoughts and research with you.

Hardball Dollars is a new blog that is trying to pick up where Dugout Dollars left off. The latter blog has not been updated since July. Look to Hardball Dollars for your salary information needs.

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The response to the David Eckstein range charts has been overwhelmingly good. I thought I'd also put up charts of Cristian Guzman, since he did very well in the study.

Here's Guzman on ground balls. He fits the prediction almost exactly (click on charts for a large image).

Here's Cristian on fly balls:

He really shines on line drives, however.

Some commentors have pointed out that Eckstein is short for a ball player. I see him listed as 68 inches. Guzman is listed at 72 inches, so that may make a difference. However, I took at look at the relationship of height to PMR on line drives, and didn't find anything indicating that it really mattered.

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Dave Sheinin has taken over Nationals Journal for a few days and shows that Frank Robinson understands both on-base average and how to motivate players:

This was Manager Frank Robinson this morning talking about prospective leadoff man Endy Chavez, whose attempt to learn the finer points of batting leadoff is one of the primary storylines of the camp:

"I certainly like what I see so far. He's trying to bunt. He bunted safely in [Saturday's game in] Fort Lauderdale for a base hit. He tried to bunt the other day. He's working the count a little bit. He's not swinging from his heels as much. He's stealing a base or two. He is starting to do some of the things we've asked him to do."

On whether a player can learn to be selective at the plate:

"It is something that some guys are born with. But you can learn it. I think it comes from experience and having confidence in your own skills and abilities. That's why you see a lot of guys who swing early in the count all the time, because they don't feel confident that they can hit the pitches they're going to see with two strikes. You see some guys come up and take a strike, because they have confidence in their skills to hit with two strikes. It can be taught, but it's easier if you bring it to the table in the first place."

I asked Frank if it was reasonable to expect Chavez to have a .350 or better on-base average after hovering around .300 thus far in his career.

"I want him higher than that," Robinson said. "I want him around .380. I don't want it to be realistic. I don't want it to be easy for him. But I want to give him something to think about. He knows he really has to work at it to be able to achieve that. But one of the keys for him is, I want him to score over 100 runs. If he does that, he's been on base a lot."

Way to go, Frank. He wants him around .380, because .380 is where a leadoff man should be. If Robinson pushes Chavez toward .380 and gets .350, it will be an impressive improvement and a great bit of coaching.

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Over the last few days I've been chatting with Robert Saunders about presenting data graphically. He pointed me to this post on Edward Tufte's web site, where's he trying to present charts that are the size of words. I'm not there yet, but Robert did get me thinking about presenting the Probabilistic Model of Range graphically. I thought I'd give it a try with David Eckstein, since there were some arguments over whether the data properly reflected his abilities.

What I've done is broken the data down by ball in play type (grounders, flys and liners). Each chart below has the direction of the ball on the X-Axis. The Y-Axis represents the probability of turning those balls into outs. Eckstein's actual probability is compared to the predicted probability. For reference, a vector of -4 (minus 4) represents the thirdbase line, and 8 represents straight away centerfield. Here's Eckstein on grounders in 2004 (click on graphs for a larger image):

As you can see, David is great when the ball is hit right at straight away short. But once he starts moving left or right, he becomes a below average fielder. Nothing terrible, just below average.

Now let's look at fly balls.

I really love the information this chart conveys. It shows that fly balls are usually caught by shortstops around the normal position, they go down around third base, but pick up again in foul territory. And this shows why David does so poorly. He does not catch pop ups in foul territory. With the Cardinals, he has a great fielding third baseman in Rolen, so Scott will have to go after balls the shortstop usually gets.

Finally, the line drive chart.

He's just way below average to his left. Even at balls hit right at the position, he doesn't do well. Does he not react quickly?

I'll be doing a few more of these. I hope you find them as informative as I do.

Update: Fixed a left-right problem. I said that Eck was below average to his right. I meant left. Thanks, Studes.

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Rick Ankiel is now an outfielder.

Cardinals lefthander Rick Ankiel, once deemed the game's most promising young arm, will convert from pitcher to outfielder, effective immediately.

The Cardinals confirmed the move Wednesday morning shortly after rain washed out what was scheduled to be Ankiel's spring debut in a B game against the Florida Marlins.

"We are fully supportive of Rick's decision to convert to an everyday outfielder," Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty said in a prepared statement. "Rick will continue to train with the major league club this spring, and we look forward to seeing his development as a full-time batter and outfielder."

Is he going to replace Reggie Sanders or So Taguchi? When Babe Ruth made this move, he already proved he could hit. Here's Ankiel's career numbers. Good for a pitcher, not good for an outfielder. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this story soon.

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The Baseball Crank is starting his series on using Established Win Share Levels to handicap the division races. Today, it's the AL East.

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Ian Desmond is having a good spring for the Washington Nationals. The teenager has made the first round of cuts and is reported to be very impressive with the glove:

"We've been talking about him, sure," catcher Gary Bennett said the other day. "You don't want to say too much. It's early. But man, that kid has some tools."

They have talked, specifically, because of three plays. Two came Saturday: a high chopper on which Desmond spectacularly threw out a runner at the plate, and a bad-hop grounder that deflected off the third baseman that Desmond calmly grabbed before flicking to first for the out. The other came Monday against Detroit, when, with a runner on first, he ranged behind third to snare a pop fly, then smartly threw to second baseman Brendan Harris, who doubled the runner off.

"He has tremendous poise," Bowden said. "He reminds me of Derek Jeter -- except those were Ian Desmond plays, not Derek Jeter plays."

Keep your eye on this young man. Players who make the majors at an early tend to be the great ones.

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It looks like Congress is ready to issue supoenas to compell players to appear in Washington before the House Committee on Government Reform. In addition to suspected steroid users, the house is probably going to call some outspoken critics of steroid use.

Not all of the players on the list have been alleged by Canseco - or anyone else - to have used steroids.

Thomas appears to be on the list because of his public statements that the game needs to be cleaned up. He has said he would be happy to testify at the hearing, although he has expressed concern about the effect that flying to Washington from the team's Arizona spring training site could have on an injured ankle.

Schilling also spoke out against steroids before baseball's program of tougher penalties and year-round testing began during spring training.

He said recently that he was concerned the hearing could turn into a "witch hunt" and that he didn't know if he would voluntarily attend.

It's one thing to wage war against steroids in the press. It's another thing to sit in front of a committee under oath and answer the question, "Which players have you seen use steroids?" I'm not sure you can take the fifth on that one, especially if you claim to be innocent. Will the question be asked, and will Schilling and Thomas betray teammates? Or are they just speculating about the abuse? I can't wait to hear their testimony.

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The March Pledge drive continues. Did you know that full-time bloggers are good for the environment? Any job that comes my way will likely force me to commute 90 to 190 miles a day, round trip. That's a lot of gasoline being burned into the atmosphere. But blogging requires only a trip from my bed room to my basement, consuming no fossil fuels whatsoever!

So think of a donation to Baseball Musings as a way to keep our air clean, and keep money out of the hands of the oil companies. Remember, if every one who visits this site in March gives one dollar, Baseball Musings can be independent for a year. For long time readers, a gift of ten dollars is suggested. Any amount will keep us breathing better!

Your generosity has put my Amazon Honor System account to the limit. Right now, I can only accept donations via PayPal. Click below to donate in any amount.

Once again, thanks to all who have donated so far. Don't let 1% of visitors carry the burden. Donate today!

Update: Welcome Instapundit readers!

If you've been trying to donate via Amazon, it turns out there is a limit on donations during a 28 day period, and we've reached that limit. I'm afraid no one will be able to donate via Amazon until the end of the month. You can still use PayPal. If anyone has other suggestions for receiving donations, I'm happy to hear about them.

David Singer send a link to this NY Times article about the death of artifical grass in the National League:

Players with troublesome legs, like left fielder Cliff Floyd of the Mets, usually learn to check for upcoming games on artificial turf, since such games can mean one of two things: nine innings of discomfort, or a day off.

To his delight, when Floyd scanned the Mets' schedule this year, he saw something that couldn't have made him happier: For the first time in four decades, the National League is free of plastic grass. As a result, 10 National League teams, including the Mets, will play all 162 regular-season games on the real stuff. A baseball fact of life that began when the Astrodome in Houston introduced artificial turf to the major leagues in 1966 is now officially over for one-third of major league baseball.

It's excellent news. At one time, half of the ballparks in the National League used artifical surfaces (Montreal, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Houston). I believe my late father-in-law had something to do with this. Neither my wife nor I remember the story perfectly, but he was working for Monsanto in the 1960s and happened to meet with someone involved in the building or maintenance of the dome. This person was telling him how difficult it was to grow grass there. Monsanto had introduced this green carpet for blacktop school yards, and I believe my father-in-law mentioned it to his associate, and the rest is history. I've written my brother-in-law to see if he remembers the story better, and I'll update when I hear from him.

Here's a history of the invention from About.com.

Update: My brother-in-law writes:

I know my father was directly involved with both the development and marketing of Astroturf, but beyond that I don't know much else, sad to say.

As you know, "Astroturf" entered the language as a generic term for all artificial playing surfaces. It used to rile Dad tremendously when cheaper, inferior quality imitiations of Astroturf were installed in other stadiums and were commonly called "astroturf". He hated to see the product get a black eye in public relations when football and baseball players would injure themselves, or the ball would bounce funny, and blame the "astroturf" surface. "It's that lousy Polyturf causing that trouble, damn it, not Astroturf!" Not sure who made Polyturf -- possibly arch-rival DuPont (the name was almost swear-word in our house during Dad's Monsanto days....)

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I'm getting the hang of working with the database manager on my host. I've also collected day-by-day data from Retrosheet and am planning on making it available with a nice web interface. When it's done, you should be able to select a player, pick a start an