April 26, 2008
The Lincecum Count
Only Baseball Matters takes the Giants to task for allowing Tim Lincecum to throw over 120 pitches in a game:
So, how much "proving" do we need ? Tim Lincecum is the single most valuable commodity on the team. You could argue that he is one of the most valuable players in the entire game of baseball, and in the first 25 games of the year, Bonehead has allowed him to go back into a game to pitch after an hour-long rain delay -something normal teams don't even do with established veteran pitchers- and then two nights ago, throw an additional 10 pitches in the 8th inning when he was leading, and had already thrown 114 pitches.
Baseball Prospectus pitcher abuse points system, which measures all of the stress on a pitcher, not just innings or pitches thrown, has Lincecum ranked second in the NL. That is fucking unbelievable. The most valuable young player in the entire Giants organization is being run out there and put under the most stress of all but one pitcher in the whole National League. Under what circumstances should this be allowed? None.
I disagree with this a bit. Doesn't Lincecum supposedly have the best mechanics in the game? Shouldn't great mechanics take stress off the arm? And with less stress, shouldn't he be able to pitch more?
I'm not an expert on these things, but part of Tim's value might be that he can go deeper in games. I don't know that I'd be gambling on that, but I don't think it's quite as clear cut as OBM makes it.
Posted by David Pinto at
02:53 PM
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My understanding, at least, was that Lincecum's crazy-awesome mechanics were what allowed he of slight-build to pitch well at all. Also, that, because of his small size, his mechanics tend to come apart as his body tires. Now, I'm not sure that I've seen any evidence while watching him that he gets any worse in later innings than anyone else, but it would seem to me that the Giants would do well to be cautious with the guy.
As long as he's not tired and having his mechanics suffer (thus putting him at great risk of injury), I don't see the big deal. Keep in mind, he's always had a max-effort delivery and he was going up to 150 pitches a game in College without any ill effects. If he's healthy, productive and not at any great risk you might as well let him pitch since it's not like the Giants have a better option.
I've never before heard anyone say Tim Lincecum has good mechanics. Nearly everyone says he has very unusual mechanics.* Is this a problem? Maybe. Is having perfect mechanics a great way to avoid injury? Surprisingly, also maybe. Who have you heard "his mechanics are beautiful, perfect" about the most. It's Mark Prior, isn't it? His mechanics couldn't save him from Dusty Baker.
*As if confirmation were needed: http://youtube.com/watch?v=1aYXDjEpjf4
I think total pitch count can be misleading... 120 pitches over 9 innings isn't as bad as 120 pitches over 5. As long as he doesn't go out and have to throw a 45 pitch inning and then finish off the game then go for it. Some people can just go for (what seems like) forever without getting tired or sore.
Often the most efficient and healthiest pitchers are the ones who can maintain their mechanics through an entire game and season. If your excellent mechanics are combined with a solid arsenal then you can be very successful.