Your tax dollars at work:

A federal judge on Friday told the government to re-craft its perjury case against Barry Bonds, saying prosecutors had improperly lumped multiple alleged offenses into each of four counts of its indictment of the former Giants star.

At a hearing in U.S. District Court in San Francisco, Judge Susan Illston said the case could not proceed because Bonds' indictment, handed up by a grand jury in November, was "duplicitous" - a legal term meaning it was improperly charged. By law, the government can only accuse a person of one crime per count of an indictment. But the judge said that in Bonds' perjury case, the slugger was being accused of telling as many as five different lies under oath in each count of the indictment.

She said the government could correct the flaws by rewriting the indictment or filing a new one.

Update: Bonds grand jury testimony is coming to a browser near you.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the San Francisco Giants. Their starters posted 4.24 ERA in 2007, fourth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the San Francisco Gaints top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Barry Zito	180	84	4.20
Matt Cain	179	75	3.77
Tim Lincecum	133	60	4.06
Noah Lowry	154	72	4.21
Kevin Correia	87	37	3.83
Totals	733	328	4.03

The Giants rotation is going to be the strength of the team this year. They need to find about 240 more innings, however. Given the predictions for the top four, you can only expect about 100 more innings there, bringing each of them close to 200 innings. The fifth starter slot, given the poor offense on this team, is going to be a black hole for wins.

Still the top four post excellent ERAs, and they'll need every run they save if this team is going to compete in the NL West this season. The Giants could end up paying $18 million for a fourth starter.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks

Jason Kendall is seeing the ball better after laser surgery:

"I feel like I'm 18 again," Kendall said of his vision improvement. "I'm picking up the rotation on the ball like I used to."

That's good news for the Brewers.

Ray Durham's shoulder is bothering him:

Second baseman Ray Durham's sore right shoulder had been improving, but the pain was worse when he reported to work and was to undergo an MRI exam Thursday evening to determine the nature of his injury.

Manager Bruce Bochy had hoped Durham could be the designated hitter for today's game against Seattle at Scottsdale Stadium. Now, that is unlikely.

With both Vizquel and Durham down, it looks like Kevin Frandsen can win a middle infield job that should be his anyway. Age is really catching up with this team right now.

The San Diego outfield is in flux, but Chase Headley took a step toward bringing it into equilibrium:

Headley, a former third baseman who is the Padres' top prospect, was starting in left for the first time as a professional player. Suzuki, the Mariners' leadoff man whose late-swing flicks are notoriously difficult to defend, sliced a liner toward him.

The rookie peered through sunglasses into direct sunlight, charged and caught the ball as he skidded to his knees. "That's a tough ball, man," he said.

Naturally, the next hitter, Jose Vidro, served another ball to left, a high shot. Headley could have panicked when he briefly lost the ball in the high sun. "You just hang with it and go to where you think it will come down," he said.

He caught it, then snared another sun-ball in the fourth inning of Seattle's 10-3 win at Peoria Stadium.

Three chances, three outs. One big boost.

Headley's done a great job getting on base in the minors. If they can get that and decent defense out of a leftfielder, the Padres will have improved that position.

Another Cardinals player is in trouble with the law:

Cardinals minor-league pitcher Donnie Smith was jailed Wednesday night and faces a felony battery charge stemming from a bloodied nose last September.

Smith, 25, is accused of punching a Florida man in the face at a restaurant near the Cardinals' facility at Roger Dean Stadium. He was arrested Wednesday on a charge of aggravated battery and released on $3,000 bail Thursday evening, according to the Palm Beach County sheriff's website.

The Cardinals became aware of the arrest Thursday, a day after the team released major-leaguer Scott Spiezio, who is facing six misdemeanor charges in California.

The club said it was still gathering information on Smith's case.

"We're looking into it," general manager John Mozeliak said. "After we learn the facts, we'll determine if we will wait for the justice system to do its due process or if we need to react prior to that."

Starting with La Russa's DUI last spring, it's certainly been a bad year for the Cardinals.

Jon Weisman makes a number of good points about Larry Bowa's refusal to wear a helmet.

Phil Hughes guests blogs at Yark Work. :-)

Update: Meanwhile, the real Phil Hughes answers questions readers of his blog and The LoHud Yankees blog sumitted.

Todd: Is there a nickname you like to see for you, Ian and Joba? Is there any you've heard that you liked?

Phil Hughes: As far as the three of us combined or individually? It seems when groups of people get nicknames it always doesn't turn out well. Maybe if we could try to keep that out of the equation.

An excellent observation.

Julio Lugo's poor offensive performance in 2007 is now being blamed on parasites:

Stomaching portions of last season was even more difficult for Julio Lugo than most realized.

The Red Sox shortstop admitted yesterday he never regained his strength during his first year with the team due to a stomach parasite he picked up during a month-long vacation to Europe the previous offseason.

"I never got my strength back," Lugo said. "I started training in January and that only made it worse, and when I got to spring training, I wasn't right.

He should be careful in Japan. Jason Giambi and Kevin Brown picked up parasites during their trip there with the Yankees.

Brian Roberts put on a show for the Cubs scouts on Thursday:

Roberts, who hit .290 last season with 12 homers, 57 RBIs and 50 steals, led off the bottom of the first with a walk, stole second and third, and then scored on Melvin Mora's chopper to the left side that was booted by third baseman Jorge Cantu.

The sequence, which was taken in by Cubs special assistant to the general manager Ken Kravec along with another Cubs scout, is an example of what makes Roberts so attractive to Chicago officials.

Looking for a leadoff hitter to jump-start their offense and get on base ahead of sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, the Cubs have targeted Roberts for months and there is a sense in the industry that the uncertainty with second baseman Mark DeRosa could accelerate the trade talks. DeRosa underwent a procedure yesterday to correct an irregular heartbeat.

Roberts also doubled later in the game.

In addition to wearing helmets, the majors are going to enforce the coaching box boundaries:

Starting this year, first- and third-base coaches must not cross the lines toward home plate or the field until batted balls pass them. Only then can they take up other spots to guide runners.

Third-base coaches routinely stand much closer to the plate than the lines permit, trying to get a better look at where outfielders are positioned.

Maybe they can enforce the batter's box while they're at it. Here's a rule I'd like to see: Any player who wipes out the back line of the batter's box is ejected from the game, and the grounds crew comes out between innings to redraw the line.

Sergio Mitre suffered elbow problems today:

With Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez still sidelined for the foreseeable future, Mitre is expected to be leaned on a lot this season, anchoring the Marlins' young staff of hurlers. A tight elbow in February is bad news. Mitre is also coming off of a season in which the injury bug bit him quite a bit. In 2007, he spent time on the DL with a blister on his throwing hand, missed a start with a bad hamstring and was shut down at the end of the season due to fatigue.

"I don't know what else I have to go through," a frustrated Mitre said. "We'll see."

I wonder how many starters the Marlins are going to end up using this season.

Kosuke Fukudome reached base three times today using each element of on-base average:

The Japanese newcomer was plunked on the first pitch he saw in the first inning, walked in his next turn and then hit an RBI single to help the Cubs beat the San Francisco Giants 12-6 Thursday in an exhibition opener.

That's a perfect way to start his Cubs career.

Doctors are concerned about Bobby Murcer's health again. They'll perform another biopsy of his brain. I wish him the best.

Joe Christensen watched Francisco Liriano's first bullpen session. He was told to take it easy today:

His pitching motion looks very similar to what we saw in 2006. So it's not like he's revamped everything. He's just bigger. He threw several change-ups in this bullpen session and only a few sliders. The mere fact he's using all his pitches is probably a good sign for the staff.

Alex Belth remembers W.C. Heinz and Myron Cope.

Frank Stevenson looks at x-rays of pitchers and comes to a couter-intuitive conclusion:

In the old days, kids were not limited with any pitching counts or which kind of pitches they were allowed to throw. Instead they just kept pitching, and pitching, and pitching, and pitching over and over again. When pain began they would typically just keep pitching and pitching and pitching. Well, when comparing the x-rays we noticed that differences could be seen in the old timers vs the newer cases. For example, the AC joint was more flattened and smoothed out (both the clavicle and the acromion) in pitchers like Nolan Ryan's and others. This would allow the joint to continue being used without developing any friction or increased irritation which would latter result in rotator cuff injuries, bursitis, or extreme cases of early arthritis. The flattening of the bones that made up the AC joint were done EARLY when they were a kid; before the growth plates fused and before the bone ossified to adult "hardness". So, in other words, the over pitching and non-limitations allowed the joints and bone to change and be altered to a perfect "pitcher's joint" when they were young, which fused and hardened, and stayed that way into adult hood; allowing them to throw over and over again without injury-- in other words the joint ADAPTED to what it needed to be in order to be placed under that stress. Same goes with the elbow.

Now today we have limitations we place on little leaguers and pitchers. They are only allowed to throw so many pitches, so many innings, not allowed to throw curve balls until a certain age, etc, etc. The theory is that they AREN'T placing ENOUGH stress on these joints to alter them and instead the joint grows like every other persons; a normal AC and elbow joint. When placed latter in the big leagues these joints can't handle the stresses placed on them (the AC joint and elbow weren't created to withstand these pressures) and they blow out early ending careers way too early.

There may be something here, but I believe it's somewhat more complicated than this. Afterall, players there were a number of old players (Drysdale, Koufax) who threw all the time and saw their careers end early. I wonder how many of these pitchers with adapted shoulders and elbows had a genetic predisposition to that configuration?

Jay Bruce and Joey Votto issue an ultimatum. :-) Here's why:

Yesterday, Jay was taking some simulated at-bats off Gary Majewski and drew a walk. Dusty spit out his toothpick, stormed over and told Jay that "Walking is for dogs, not baseball players." Then he made Jay sit out in left field with a dog collar around his neck and told him that Hank Aaron never took a walk.

We checked, and Hank Aaron walked 1,402 times in his career. But Dusty said numbers are like trout: everyone has a few lying around somewhere, and it doesn't mean you're special. We don't know what that means.

The Rockies sign another player cheap:

After only a half season as their closer, Manny Corpas agreed Thursday to an $8 million, four-year contract with the Colorado Rockies that could be worth up to $22 million if the team exercises options for 2012 and 2013.

The 25-year-old Panamanian right-hander replaced three-time All-Star Brian Fuentes as Colorado's closer last season. He played an integral role in the club's first World Series berth, where the Rockies lost to the Boston Red Sox.

Manny's strike out rate isn't the highest I've seen from a closer, but he only walks 2.3 batters per nine innings and keeps the ball in the park. If he can keep that up for another four years he'll be well worth the options.

I'll be the guest of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective tonight. They're meeting at 6 PM in Winthrop House if you're on campus and interested in stopping by.

Emma Span looks at why the Yankees and Red Sox fans were happy they didn't get Santana. She closes with a great paragraph:

Of course, these concerns are a luxury few teams can afford, and you won't hear many Mets fans complaining about overspending. Their team hasn't won a championship since 1986, and last year's nominal ace, Tom Glavine, cemented the team's epic September implosion by throwing one-third of an inning of seven-run ball on the last day of the season. The Mets needed Santana, and--thanks in large part to the Yankees' and Red Sox's abstention--they got him. As the fans at Shea know all too well, you need to have success before you can worry about how it's achieved.

Joe Posnanski, in his unique style, wonders why Bob Howsam isn't in the Hall of Fame. It sort of goes with this Roy White post.

TBS announced their early season Sunday afternoon game of the week schedule.

"For the first time in Turner Sports' 30-year history of MLB coverage we're proud to present an exciting weekly package that showcases some of the top teams and players in baseball," said Jeff Behnke, Turner Sports executive producer. "Every Sunday afternoon for 26 straight weeks fans will find key matchups and marquee names as we follow the dramatic storylines of the regular season leading into our second straight MLB Postseason on TBS."

While the schedule is very NY-Boston heavy, it pits those teams against interesting opponents. For example, the Sunday, May 18th game is Milwaukee at Boston. Nice to see the Brewers recognized as a contender by a network.

I really like the TBS baseball production. Unlike Fox and ESPN, they keep the focus on the game rather than having their announcers pontificate about the latest news story. Some people complain they are too low key, but it's a nice change.

Hat tip, Baseball Think Factory.

Jon Weisman muses on the retirement of Shawn Green.

But though I wish the Dodgers and Green had faced up to his declining play sooner, I always liked Green. It's probably been a couple years since I've even thought about it, but remember the joy of waiting to see him cross home plate at Dodger Stadium after a home run and toss his batting gloves to a kid in the stands? He was a good guy who, for a significant stretch, could slam the ball. I hope, as he settles down in Irvine, he isn't shy about coming by Dodger Stadium for a game and getting some well-deserved applause from the fans - including the daughter of one reader here in particular.

Shawn shares some similarities to Don Mattingly, in that he lost his power suddenly due to an injury. Mattingly was a bit better before the injury, but Green kept his power two years longer than Don. Both were done at age 34 and decided to move on rather than linger in the majors. I doubt, however, if anyone will ask me if Green belongs in the Hall of Fame.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their starters posted 4.23 ERA in 2007, third in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Arizona Diamondbacks top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Brandon Webb	202	75	3.34
Dan Haren	194	79	3.66
Randy Johnson	109	56	4.62
Doug Davis	177	88	4.47
Micah Owings	134	64	4.30
Totals	816	362	3.99

The big story over the winter was the acquisition of Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks to give Arizona the best 1-2 punch in the majors, although at this point Santana and Pedro might give them a run for their money. Randy Johnson is a big question mark. The performance list here would not surprise me, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he posted sixty more innings than projected with a lower ERA. I suspect Micah Owings, in his second big league season would show some improvement over these numbers, especially in innings pitched. This is going to be a very good rotation.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels

In a Wii coincidence, I received this press release yesterday:

2K Sports Partners With the Baseball Wives Charitable Foundation for Third Annual 2K Sports Videogame Challenge and Fashion Show As Major League Baseball® players get ready for Opening Day, a number of players from the Cactus League will be taking time out for charity to participate in the Third Annual 2K Sports Videogame Challenge, in partnership with the Baseball Wives Charitable Foundation, on Friday, March 7, at Scottsdale Plaza Resort in Scottsdale, Arizona.

The event is open to the public, as more than 30 Major League Baseball players including Todd Helton, Dan Haren, Adrian Beltre, Hank Blalock, Huston Street, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche, Alex Gordon and many others will face off in a Home Run Derby contest to see who can hit the most long balls in Major League Baseball 2K8, the recently released videogame from 2K Sports. In memory of Joe Kennedy, former Major League Baseball pitcher, proceeds from the 2K Sports Videogame Challenge will benefit the Boys & Girls Clubs in Denver and Oakland.

After the conclusion of the videogame tournament, the Baseball Wives Charitable Foundation, in partnership with the local philanthropic group Las Palomas, will be hosting a fashion show in which the wives and their children will serve as models. Tickets for the fashion show and dinner are available for purchase, and proceeds will benefit the Arizona chapter of the Partnership for a Drug-Free America. Alexis DelChiaro, Fox 10 news anchor and wife of Chicago Cubs pitcher Sean Marshall, will serve as emcee for the evening fashion show.

What: 2K Sports Videogame Challenge

In memory of Joe Kennedy, Major League Baseball players will compete in a Home Run Derby contest of Major League Baseball 2K8 to help raise money for Boys & Girls Clubs in Denver and Oakland.

Fashion Show

Player wives and their children will serve as models, as dinner will be served, and proceeds will benefit the Arizona chapter of the Partnership for a Drug-Free America.

Where: Scottsdale Plaza Resort

7200 N Scottsdale Rd
Scottsdale, AZ 85253
Event: Friday, March 7th
2K Sports Videogame Challenge -- 5:30 pm-7:00 pm
Fashion Show -- 7:00 pm-10:00 pm

The Baseball Wives Charitable Foundation, a non-profit organization founded in 2006 by wives of Major League Baseball players, has local chapters in each team's city that build on the strength of the community-at-large. The wives are committed to benefiting and enhancing the quality of life for communities across the nation with a focus on health, education and youth-related projects.

Major League Baseball 2K8, published by 2K Sports and rated E for Everyone by the ESRB, is now available for Xbox 360® video game and entertainment system from Microsoft, the PLAYSTATION®3 and PlayStation®2 computer entertainment systems, the PSP® (PlayStation®Portable) system, and the Wii™ home video game system from Nintendo.

For more information about the Third Annual 2K Sports Videogame Challenge, please visit: www.baseballwivescharitablefoundation.com.

According to the letter that came with the release, there will be a Wii set up where fans can challenge the players. Just as I received the email, a Wii was delivered to my front door. My daughter's friends pooled their funds and bought one for Melinda's birthday, which was last June. We finally were able to buy one late last week. I set it up last night and actually hit a home run during batting practice. :-)

The Department of Justice is looking into perjury charges against Roger Clemens. Given the location of the alleged injections, Roger might want to turn to Cartman for advice:

Mark DeRosa undergoes heart surgery today:

Cubs second baseman Mark DeRosa is scheduled to undergo surgery this morning to correct the heart arrhythmia that sent him to a Mesa hospital over the weekend. And barring a setback, the club expects he'll be ready to take batting practice as soon as Monday and be ready for games by the end of next week.

The outpatient procedure is called radio frequency catheter ablation (RFCA), in which an electrode catheter is used to destroy a very small area of heart tissue that caused the irregular heartbeat.

According to team doctor Stephen Adams, who spoke to media Wednesday at the request of DeRosa, cardiologists begin the process with an electrophysiology study (EPS), using a catheter-based system to induce atrial arrhythmia so they can identify the trouble spot. At that point the RFCA is performed, and another EPS is done to confirm the problem has been corrected.

The entire process should take one to two hours, Adams said. The success rate is about 98 percent.

I find it amazing that a person can undergo heart surgery and be back on the job in less than a week. It probably wasn't that long ago that DeRosa's career would be over.

Matt Bouffard weighs in on whether Roy White was really a better leftfielder than Jim Rice. Growing up in Bridgeport, CT during Roy White's prime, I got to watch him a lot. Roy was never hyped as a player. Bobby Murcer, the centerfield from Oklahoma got that, or Thurman Munson. Even the awful Horace Clarke and Gene Michael got more press, it seemed. Roy was more like Dwight Evans, an excellent ballplayer whose skill of getting on base wasn't something that excited writers.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Scott Spiezio's career with the Cardinals is at an end after an arrest warrant was issued following a December car accident:

Irvine police responded to a report of a single-car crash at 12:20 a.m. on Dec. 30.

Officers found a 2004 BMW registered to Spiezio had crashed into a curb and fence. The driver was seen running from the crash site, Handfield said.

A neighbor told police Spiezio arrived at their condo complex appearing disheveled and apparently injured. The neighbor said Spiezio allegedly assaulted him, causing significant injuries, Handfield said.

Another version of the story I read on my radio program mentioned that Spiezio vomited in the neighbor's condo. At least no one was killed, and let's hope this encourages Scott to clean up his life.

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why it's a good idea to bat the pitcher eighth.

It looks like the naming rights to Wrigley Field went to Barack Obama. :-)

Critics of the plan contend that Obama is a fan of the crosstown White Sox.

But Obama supporters point out that the desire to name the field after the Illinois senator illustrates his desire to "change the status quo" by reaching across the aisle for the good of the country and form alliances with rivals, be they political or sports-based.

Hillary is from the northside. Too bad she's a Yankees fan.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Roster Magazine premired today:

Featured columns were contributed by Maury Brown, Derek Carty, Pizza Cutter, Daniel Rathman and Eric Seidman.

Mock draft participants included Pete Abbate, Knox Bardeen, Tony Bartlett, David Chase, Eric Hinz, Cory Humes, Tim McLeod, Derek Nelson, Zach Piso, Brad Stewart, Bob Taylor and Edwin Van Bibber-Orr.

Team profiles were written by Jonathan Aicardi, Joe Aiello, Ryan Armbrust, Jessica Bader, Matt Bandi, Matt Birnbach, Jay Capron, Dan Carey, E.J. Fagan, Bill Ferris, Clark Fosler, Lisa Gray, David Hannes, Zach Hayes, Cory Humes, Joey Matschulat, Jim McLennan, Daniel Rathman, Eric SanInocencio, Aaron Sapiro, Will Schaffer, Stoeten, Ryan Van Bibber, Shawn Weaver and Geoff Young.

Fernando Rodney's shoulder is bothering him more:

Tigers manager Jim Leyland said today that Rodney has stopped throwing the ball. There is no word on when he will resume doing so.

"I'm concerned," Leyland said.

Leyland said that Rodney has tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. It's the first time anyone with the Tigers has classified Rodney's problem as anything more serious than shoulder stiffness.

Rodney isn't concerned and thinks he'll be back to work in ten days.

The more I read about Trey Hillman, the more I like him:

"OBP," he said. "It's a no-brainer. OBP, then drive them in. On-base percentage before average. Take your walks because you are aggressively disciplined in the strike zone. But take your walks.

"If they're going to pitch around you, and try to get you to bite, be disciplined enough to take your walk."

The Royals ranked 13th among 14 AL teams last year in walks and on-base percentage.

But on top of that, Hillman is really concerned about how to drive those runs in. Without big boppers on the team, he's drilling players on situational hitting. He's working on improving their bunting, their squeeze plays, what to do in a hit and run situation. On top of that, it looks like he knows when to call for these strategies:

"When am I going to ask you to bunt?" Hillman questioned. "If you're not bunting for a base hit, when am I going to ask you to bunt? Generally, it will be the seventh, eighth or ninth inning.

"That's when you have the setup man or the closer in the game. The point is, the stuff you're facing is nasty. It's going to be high-velocity with sink, slide, split or a serious hammer.

"Those guys aren't easy to bunt off of. You'd better be fundamentally sound and plan on getting the ball down in the right location. Simplify your technique."

He knows when he needs these kinds of plays, and he wants to make sure his batters (and his fielders) are prepared to handle these situations.

Nate Silver goes on the record at SI.com with a prediction that the Rays will win twenty two more games than the Devil Rays did last season.

It's in the field, though, that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently.

I hope Nate is right. It will be fun to have a third team competing for the top spot in the division.

Don Fehr proposed a good idea during Congressional steroid hearings today:

Fehr did suggest one way in which Congress could help sports leagues: require that commercially sold human growth hormone contain a chemical marker that would be detectable in a urine test.

This wouldn't be perfect, of course. Players might be able to buy it outside the country with no marker. At least Don is looking for a workable solution.

Also, to show the level of Congressional intelligence, they think pro wrestling is a sport:

The chairman also said he was "exceptionally and extremely disappointed" that World Wrestling Entertainment chairman Vince McMahon was the only witness to decline the subcommittee's invitation to testify Wednesday.

I didn't hear about the story of Brett Boone's alcoholism until today, and I wasn't really paying attention to Boone at all. At his age and spending two years away from the game, I didn't think there was much of a chance for him to make the Nationals squad. Good for him, however, that he stopped drinking and is giving baseball a try again. I wish him the best of luck in remaining sober.

Francisco Liriano joined the Twins today. Now, it's time to find out if he can regain his pre-injury effectiveness. If he can, he'll replace Santana at a fraction of the cost, although it would be nice to trot both out as a one-two punch.

The Rays sidelined Scott Kazmir for two weeks.

"It was just a little scary because I never felt it before," Kazmir said, according to the Times. "But after I talked with [team trainer Ron Porterfield] and everything and we did some of the strength tests, I felt confident it would be all right."

It's probably a good thing he didn't try to pitch through the discomfort. Missing two weeks in March is better than two months in the summer.

Update: It looks like the ESPN article was incomplete. The Heater explains the injury will force Kazmir to miss the start of the season:

"Relatively speaking, it is good news,'' Friedman said.

Friedman said the Rays would not put a specific timetable on Kazmir's return, but it sounds as if they expect him "at most" to miss only a few regular-season starts. The Times reported Wednesday that Kazmir is unlikely to make his expected opening day start and expected to miss about two weeks.

"I expect it would be two weeks at least until he is throwing to a hitter,'' Friedman said.

Friedman said an MRI and examination by Dr. Koco Eaton showed that "the nerves, the tendons, the ligaments, everything's intact.''

So it will be two weeks before he starts throwing, then he needs to take time to rebuild his arm strength.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the LAnaheim Angels. Their starters posted 4.22 ERA in 2007, third in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the LAnaheim Angels top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
John Lackey	194	75	3.48
Jon Garland	185	88	4.28
Jered Weaver	153	62	3.65
Joe Saunders	121	60	4.46
Kelvim Escobar	175	72	3.70
Totals	828	357	3.88

Escobar is injured and Santana is slotted to start the season as the team's fifth starter. However, since Escobar is due back in May, I decided to write him and go with the better Angels rotation. That projection for Kelvim is likely a bit optimistic at this point, at least in terms of innings.

Still, the Angels have to be very happy that they project to send three starters to the mound with ERAs under 4.00. Unlike the other teams in the study so far, the Angels have fewer innings to distribute to other starters this season. With Santana the swing man, the team is in very good shape, especially if they can spot start Ervin in Anaheim where he's been great.

(If Santana is the fifth starter, the projection is for 807 innings, 367 ER, and a 4.09 ERA. Still very good.)

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox

Bob Geren is trying to improve the Athletics base running skills, but so far it's not working:

Oakland's manager was impressed by Carlos Gonzalez's strike from center that cut down Jeff Baisley at third, but at the same time, Geren didn't like the baserunning, either at that point or overall. He has been emphasizing baserunning this spring, and there were several gaffes in that area at Papago Park.

"I'm not happy with that at all," Geren said. "It was awful, actually. It wasn't for lack of aggressiveness, but there were too many mistakes."

This is the story of the Athletics throughout this decade. This is the team that lost two LDS series due to poor base running. This seems like an organizational problem. Do the A's pay attention to this in the minor leagues like they do the ability to take a pitch out of the strike zone? It's supposed to be about process, and base running, like taking a ball or throwing a strike, is a process.

The Tigers tickets are selling so well, they're adding seats to Comerica Park.

Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are competing for the job of Dodgers rightfielder:

In the top of the fifth inning of the team's second intrasquad game, Matt Kemp stepped into the batter's box against James McDonald and swatted a ball far over the center-field wall. It landed at the top of a grass embankment fronting the Dodgers' executive offices and rolled back down to the fence.

In the bottom of the inning, Andre Ethier slammed a pitch from Cory Wade even farther, off the second-floor balcony of those offices beyond right-center field.

With that, the two players who are expected to fight each other all season for playing time in right field landed their first punches. But, as Ethier so eloquently put it afterward, "I could care less. It's practice."

Meanwhile, Juan Pierre appears to be ensconced in left. He's the one who should be fighting for a job.

Billy Wagner was upset a Michigan ballplayer tried to bunt against him.

Of course, if it seemed like a friendly matchup, no one told Billy Wagner. During his one inning of work, Michigan third baseman Kevin Cislo dropped down a bunt that rolled foul. Wagner got him out and then got out of the inning without a run. But he was hardly happy.

"We're trying to get our work in and they're playing to win?" Wagner asked. "Play to win against Villanova. I'm out here trying to protect my guys."

Why do pitchers get upset when batters try to bunt for hits against them? It reminds me of the time Bob Brenly got upset because Curt Schilling's no-hitter was broken up by a bunt. What, can't they take the fact that their power pitches can be undone with a tap?

I like the FanHouse take on the playing to win statement:

All of a sudden, I get this picture of Wagner as Vince Vaughn when he was in Rudy, and he blasted Rudy for playing to win in practice, and coach Ara Parseghian came out tore Vince Vaughn's character a new one. Do you remember that scene? Wouldn't it have been great if Randolph heard Wagner's quote and went nose to nose with Wagner in the lockerroom and said "You just summed up your entire sorry career here in one sentence! If you had a tenth of the heart of Cislo, you'd have won a World Series by now! As it is, you just went from closer to mop up! Get out of here!"

The Disabled List Informer discusses what might be going on in Scott Kazmir's elbow.

R. A. Dickey doesn't have an ulnar collateral ligament. Yet he's had a career pitching, and now emerges as a knuckleballer.

Dickey, a huskily bearded father of three, said: "Doctors look at me and say I shouldn't be able to turn a doorknob without feeling pain, and I shouldn't be able to turn the key and start my car without feeling pain. But I'm still here. I feel I have a whole career ahead of me."

Dickey's knuckleball danced through the Pacific Coast League last year, when as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers' Class AAA farm team in Nashville he went 13-6 with a 3.72 earned run average. (He went 9-2 with a 2.51 E.R.A. in his final 15 starts as the pitch started to become particularly effective.) The Minnesota Twins signed him in November, but he was soon snapped up by the Mariners in the Rule 5 draft, meaning Seattle must keep him on its 25-man roster all season or offer him back to Minnesota.

Bill Bavasi, the Mariners' general manager, said that one of Dickey's primary attributes is -- of all things -- his durability. "He can throw four innings in relief tonight and spot start tomorrow," Bavasi said. "He can save your butt by eating a lot of innings."

He's certainly someone to watch this summer.

Tony La Russa will bat his pitchers eighth this season:

La Russa believes the move gives the Cardinals more opportunities to score runs. Having a position hitter in the nine hole makes No. 3 hitter Albert Pujols more like a cleanup hitter without dropping him in the lineup, which could possibly sacrifice an at-bat.

Given that Ned Yost said earlier that he would consider batting Kendall ninth, I'm working on why this makes sense for my next SportingNews.com article.

Omar Vizquel undergoes knee surgery Wednesday and will miss spring training:

"My knee was feeling good," Vizquel said. "I wanted to give it a hard shot in order to make a decision. It didn't work. I felt a little pop when I was running. That's what I wanted to see -- to see if I could sustain the pain, and I couldn't."

As for Vizquel's return, athletic trainer Dave Groeschner said: "The goal is the first week of the season but the knee will tell us."

Team orthopedist Ken Akizuki is scheduled to perform the operation back in the Bay Area to remove a torn medial meniscus. Vizquel was expected back in camp Thursday.

Minus Vizquel, manager Bruce Bochy plans to use Kevin Frandsen at shortstop. Once Vizquel is back, Frandsen could compete for the starting job at second base with Ray Durham.

I think the chance of Omar being the regular shortstop for the Giants again is slim. He was terrible offensively last year, and I have to believe a knee injury is going to cut into his range. He was still above average last year, but this could change that.

Frandsen, who put up impressive minor league OBAs, never received a real chance to play from the Giants. If Kevin lives up to his minor league record offensively, the Giants would be foolish to return Vizquel as anything but a late inning defensive replacement. Time to make Frandsen part of the youth movement.

Tony La Russa doesn't believe Mark McGwire used steroids. Tom Fornelli reaction:

Seriously, if Tony LaRussa honestly believes that Mark McGwire was completely clean after everything we've learned in the years since he retired, the man needs to retire right the hell now. He's obviously insane, and shouldn't be managing a baseball team, even one as bad as the Cardinals are going to be.

The man had andro in his locker, in the Cardinals club house. Yes, it was legal at the time but as we know now it helps. McGwire's bulk wasn't all natural.

Scott Kazmir felt something in his elbow warming up today and will undergo an MRI.

Kazmir, scheduled to work one inning, said he didn't feel a pop in his elbow.

"No, nothing like that. Discomfort," he said, adding that he shut himself down immediately because he didn't want to take any unnecessary chances.

"It was just a little scary because I never felt it before," Kazmir added. "It kind of feels like maybe I tried to do a little too much to get warmed up. Maybe I hyperextended it or something like that. That's kind of what it feels like."

River Ave. Blues uses Kevin Towers method to find relievers with poor records who might be good.

Rick Peterson demonstrates to a reporter how pitchers tip pitches:

"When you take notes, your head tilts to the right," Peterson said. "But, when you listen to what I'm saying, your head tilts to the left. Wouldn't that be a shame if that tipped someone off to what you were doing?"

Peterson made me think: Do I carry my notebook differently when I have a scoop? Do I keep my pen in a different pocket if I think I have some exclusive information? I was impressed with Peterson's attention to detail.

Good pitchers use this to their advantage. They train a batter to think, "He's throwing a fastball," then throw something else.

Forty percent of the Rangers starting rotation is already experiencing soreness.

The Baseball Analysts talk to Jon Weisman and Russ Oates about how the NL West shakes out this season.

South Side Sox is afraid Jerry Owens will lead off for the White Sox in 2008 because he bunts well.

If the White Sox are going to be the championship team that the White Sox brain trust thinks they can be, one of the main reasons will be that Carlos Quentin and Josh Fields successfully made the leap to become very good offensive players. Jerry Owens at his very best might be an average center fielder, and as such, his presence as de facto leadoff hitter would seem to limit the teams playoff hopes versus a team with a fully-realized Carlos Quentin in the lineup.

Owens major league OBA is better than Quentin's. Carlos, however, was a monster in the minors while Owens is living up to his minor league numbers. The upside for Quentin in both getting on and hitting for power is way above what Owens might do.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Boston Red Sox. Their starters posted 4.21 ERA in 2007, second in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Boston Red Sox top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Josh Beckett	181	80	3.98
Daisuke Matsuzaka	162	79	4.39
Tim Wakefield	169	90	4.79
Jon Lester	98	48	4.41
Clay Buchholz	63	27	3.86
Totals	673	324	4.33

Looking at the predicted innings it becomes clear why the Red Sox signed Schilling for one more year and then inked Bartolo Colon to replace Curt. The Red Sox by this calculation are about 300 innings short of six innings per start. If things work out well, 200 of those come from healthy seasons from Buchholz and Lester, which would leave about one hundred inning for Julien Tavarez or a recovered Curt Schilling. But if there is a significant injury, then Colon can step in, or someone else from the Red Sox minor league system.

Boston did well last season with their replacement pitchers. Normally, when you go beyond your fifth starter it's to a pitcher not really that good. The young guns the Red Sox brought in, Lester, Gabbard and Buchholz all posted better ERAs than Julien Tavarez. With Gabbard gone and Buchholz and Lester in the rotation, there may not be as much depth as last season. So if the Sox can get at least 162 innings each out of their youngsters, they'll be in very good shape.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs

The Athletics and Red Sox players will receive as much as $50,000 each for their appearance in Tokyo. Plus, there are special roster rules in effect:

All travel expenses will be covered for 30 players from both teams, although the clubs can bring additional players if they pay the extra travel costs. There will be 28-man rosters for the two regular-season games, but the teams must designate three players as inactive for the games in order to comply with the 25-man regular-season limit.

That ensures that the three players designated as inactive will not lose two days of service time. The three inactive players almost assuredly will be the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 starters, who are not expected to work in the two games but could pitch in the exhibition games against Japanese teams that precede the season opener March 25.

So teams will be able to carry extra hitters and or extra relievers, giving each manager more flexibility than he might have in a normal regular season game.

The Mets are trying to get Jose Reyes out of the habits he picked up at the end of last season. That leads to this being a bad thing:

Jose Reyes swore he was just trying to hit a line drive up the middle, or even to the opposite field, as instructed. Yet with a flick of his wrists he hit a screaming shot that crashed high off the 20-foot fence in center field, 408 feet from the plate.

The ball was hit so hard, in fact, off Joe Smith in an intrasquad game yesterday, that catcher Robinson Cancel, who was on first base, was nearly thrown out at the plate, while Reyes cruised into third with a triple.

Afterward, Reyes was practically apologizing for the shot, knowing the Mets are trying to resurrect his game after last season's killer slump by urging him to think small and slow his body down, at least in the batter's box.

"I don't know how I hit it that hard," Reyes said sheepishly. "In my mind I'm trying to slow down my body a little bit, hit the ball the other way and use my speed. It was a fastball and I just use my hands."

Such is the dilemma for the Mets this spring: Harnessing Reyes' explosive ability in an attempt to avoid the kind of meltdown that crippled the team last September, is tricky business, indeed.

I've seen something similar happen to Soriano. In his last year with the Yankees he hit a couple of home runs on low, outside pitches, then chased that pitch for the rest of the year.

Tom Bridge took a tour of Nationals Park as they tested the plumbing. He was impressed with the signage:

There's a lot to look at, image-wise, in the choices the Nationals have made for the signage. This concourse sign is a great example. If you look at the detail work beneath the sign itself, you'll see a gentle arched/lined pattern that I tend to associate with suspension bridges, but looks oddly like the Yankee Stadium "Treble Arch" Logo. You can see the exterior sign version shares that motif as well.

I'd love to read the style guide that they devised for the various signage, as well. Most of the main concourse signs are royal blue on a parchment background with a blue pinstripe, which also evokes images of the most famous franchise on the planet. No other baseball brand is so closely associated with the pinstripe motif than the Yankees, and one might suggest that to approach the pinstripe as part of an attempt to rebrand yourself might be the kind of hubris that gets your karma in trouble.

I didn't know that giving 110% is now for slackers.

Fire Joe Morgan revels in being called a VORPY by John Heyman.

It's a historic day. For years, man has waited for just the right term to use when insulting other men who love baseball numbers just a little too much. (What are they, gay for numbers? Probably.) And now, just like the wait for Shrek 3, that wait is ogre.

Jon Heyman has called us VORPies.

Now we can do that scene from Spartacus (and In and Out) in which we all stand up and declare, "I'm a VORPY!"

I'll be on The Steve Mason Show on 710 ESPN Radio in Los Angeles at 3:22 PST.

The Mariners announced their five-man rotation for 2008. This should be much better than the one that kicked off 2007.

Rays Anatomy provides pictures of the Tampa Bay Rays fanfest. I like this one of the Baseball Prospectus table, showing how they are trying new and different ways to sell their books:

I wonder what their VONS (Value Over Nate Silver) is? :-)

Francisco Liriano recevied his visa and will be reporting to spring training soon.

Via David Gerstman, Andy McPhail pulled an assistant from the commissioner's office:

Seeking to add a young mind and a fresh perspective to the Orioles' front office, Andy MacPhail announced today that he has hired Matt Klentak as director of baseball operations.

Klentak will assist MacPhail, the Orioles' president of baseball operations, with scouting, player development, contract negotiations and the overall construction of the team's major league roster. He'll start his responsibilities on March 4.

"I think he is a very bright, capable young man who has demonstrated a good feel for the game," MacPhail said. "I think our philosophies are compatible and I think he's going to bring a little different point of view, which every organization can use. He's highly recommended from a lot of people in this game that I have a lot of respect for."

He's a Dartmouth graduate who played baseball for the Green. He was profiled in 2006 by Pursue the Passion:

At Dartmouth College, Matt played baseball all four years and was the team captain his senior year. He graduated in 2002 with a degree in economics. When he graduated he was debating on what to do with his life. He had been debating this question since his junior year in college, when he spent a term abroad in France. He wrote down everything that he liked to do, one at a time, and came up with a list consisting of travel, baseball, math, working with people and business. After looking over this list endless times Matt came to the conclusion that he'd like to work in baseball. So he started his journey to get into the business by using a baseball connection to write a letter requesting an informational interview.

Someone who lists baseball and math as two of the top three things he likes to do sounds sabermetrically inclined.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Chicago Cubs. Their starters posted 4.19 ERA in 2007, second in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Chicago Cubs top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Carlos Zambrano	190	79	3.74
Ted Lilly	182	86	4.25
Rich Hill	165	77	4.20
Jason Marquis	175	95	4.89
Ryan Dempster	66	33	4.50
Totals	778	370	4.28

Note that Lilly is predicted to see his ERA rise half a run after a career year in 2007. Marquis will likely show a rise as well. Zambrano makes up for that a little bit with his ERA dropping by 0.2 runs.

The wild card here is Dempster who hasn't started since 2003. At that time, however, he did post three seasons with over 200 innings. I'm guessing he's more likely to pitch 160 innings if he lasts in the rotation, leaving the Cubs to cover only about 100 innings with other starters.

Even with the rise in ERA by Lilly and Marquis, this looks to be good rotation. If Lilly matured and his 2007 performance represents a real improvement, the Cubs will once again trot out one of the best starting staffs in the majors.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians

The Rays haven't committed to Evan Longoria breaking camp with the major league team because he's never slumped. Rays Index believes this is a good thing:

This is not the first time that the team has stated their concern over the fact that Longoria has yet to experience a slump as a professional. Let's gloss over the fact that Longoria actually did struggle a bit when he was first promoted to AAA Durham last year.

If this is the biggest concern the Rays have with Longoria, then they have no concerns. "He has never slumped" is not a reason to keep somebody in the minors. "He can't handle curveballs" or "He smokes too much weed" are reasons to keep somebody in the minors. "He is too good" is not.

With luck, he won't slump until sometime in his 30s.

Joe Mauer and Joe Nathan had a friendly battle in batting practice.

Emma at Eephus Pitch comes up with a great one for her name of the week.

FishStripes rounds up the latest news on the Florida Marlins new stadium, including a promise to raise payroll once they're in the new park.

Update: Also, Fredi Gonzalez changed his mind about the stolen base.

B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford would like Barry Bonds to join the Rays:

"C'mon,'' B.J. Upton said, "it's Barry.''

Two-time All-Star Carl Crawford said Bonds could be a good addition to the team's lineup, despite whatever issues, and attention, might follow him.

"If they are really serious about it, I'm pretty sure we can adjust to it,'' Crawford said before Monday's workout. "It's Barry Bonds - who wouldn't want to have him on their team?

This is one of those situations where there's no such thing as negative publicity. Yes, the Rays are trying to build a young team, but Barry in the lineup would increase attendance, and possibly improve the team enough that they get a taste of competing this season. For one year, I don't see a lot of downside to Tampa signing Bonds.

The Mets unveiled the Citi Field logo today. It's simple. It doesn't scream Mets nor stadium, but invokes both.

Tony La Russa wanted Barry Bonds to hit behind Albert Pujols:

"When you look at somebody dangerous to hit behind Albert, Barry was the guy I thought of," La Russa acknowledged before Sunday's workout. "For whatever reason, at the general manager or the ownership level, they didn't agree."

La Russa said he consulted his coaching staff before making the recommendation and received a positive response from some, but not all.

Any intrigue surrounding the possibility evaporated when Mozeliak concurred with the owners that signing Bonds would run counter to the club's stated commitment this season to younger players.

"It became moot as soon as I raised it and they said no," La Russa said.

Mozeliak confirmed discussing the matter as well as underscoring his lack of enthusiasm for the idea.

"Tony and I discussed it. I never got the feeling this was something he wanted to push for. He had some interest in it," Mozeliak said. "To me, to bring in somebody as protection in case something happened is a very different equation."

La Russa has a history of tolerating players accused of using steroids. I'm sure Bonds would have had a positive effect on Rick Ankiel. :-)

However, Tony is right. Pujols and Bonds back-to-back would give the Cardinals a scary offense. If this was a team that needed one piece to be able to compete, it would be a great signing. Given their pitching woes, however, that's not likely to happen.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Cleveland Indians. Their starters posted 4.19 ERA in 2007, second in the majors and best in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Cleveland Indians top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
C.C. Sabathia	200	78	3.51
Fausto Carmona	162	66	3.67
Jake Westbrook	157	76	4.36
Paul Byrd	174	90	4.66
Aaron Laffey	85	41	4.34
Totals	778	351	4.06

Cleveland starters pitched 1021 1/3 innings in 2007, the most in the majors. With these projections, they're about 200 innings short of averaging six per start. If Laffey earns the fifth slot, he'll probably see a lot more than the 85 innings projected above. Standing in the wings is Cliff Lee, coming off a very bad season but capable to absorbing needed innings for the rotation.

The person to watch, of course, is Carmona. He had a huge jump in innings from 2006 to 2007, often a sign that a pitcher is going to break down. In that case, the 162 innings projected for Fausto may be high. Luckily for Cleveland, they own a very good bullpen, so they can afford to cut back on innings from the starters and still do well.

Update: Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres

Ned Yost is thinking of batting the pitcher eighth and Jason Kendall ninth:

But one of the most interesting of possible orders would have Ryan Braun batting second, a pitcher batting eighth and catcher Jason Kendall batting ninth. This idea isn't set yet, and it may not ever be used. It is just one of a flurry of ideas whizzing around inside the skipper's head. St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has done this some during the last few seasons.

Yost's reasoning is that he wants Braun to have more plate apperances, but still be able to have guys on in front of him. So with Kendall's ability to see pitches and get on base, it would essentially translate to Braun still batting third while racking up about 40 more plate appearances, as stats show. In this lineup, Prince Fielder would bat third in the order, but it would be like having him in the clean-up slot.

Notice that Kendall batting ninth is what's suggested by the Lineup Analysis Tool, although that tool puts Fielder second. Nice to see Yost thinking outside the box.

Thanks to Tom Goyne for the link.

Gordon Edes posts the details of Terry Francona's contract. The contract will average $4 million a year:

The $4 million mark is a significant one, placing Francona just behind Joe Torre of the Dodgers (a reported 3 years, $13 million) at the highest level of the managerial salary scale.

Phil Hughes posts a picture of the fake window in the Yankees clubhouse.

Dusty Baker remains concerned about players with good OBAs clogging the bases. Of course, I think he's really concerned about too many walks without hits leaving people on base (I don't agree with that either). Players like Ichrio manage a high OBA without walking very much. It doesn't matter how a batter gets on, just that he does it often.

The Cubs sent another player to the hospital today:

Another day at Cubs camp, another trip to the hospital for a non-baseball issue.

This time it was right-hander Jose Ascanio, who was sent to the hospital today to be examined for injuries suffered Saturday night in a one-sided fistfight at a Scottsdale convenience store.

Ascanio, the reliever acquired from Atlanta in December for Will Ohman, was not seriously injured but suffered bruises and abrasions to the left side of his face.

``He got beat up pretty good last night,'' manager Lou Piniella said. ``He got punched a few times by a guy that was looking for some money. He didn't get robbed. But the guy asked for money and evidently the young man said, `I don't have any money,' and the guy punched him a few times.''

On the positive side, Ascanio didn't injure his pitching hand by fighting back. Still, I would think a professional athlete could have taken a robber in a fist fight. Maybe the thug had a weapon.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for a sabermetrically savvy computer programmer. It sounds like a great job.

Brad Lidge's knee turned out to be serious enough for surgery:

Phillies closer Brad Lidge is scheduled to have arthroscopic surgery on his right knee Monday and could miss the regular-season opener.

Lidge, Philadelphia's biggest offseason acquisition, limped off the field Saturday after injuring his knee when he caught a spike in the mound on his first pitch of batting practice. Doctors removed torn cartilage from the same knee in October.

The 31-year-old right-hander was expected to return to Philadelphia on Sunday for surgery Monday that would sideline him for three to six weeks. The Phillies open the season at home March 31 against Washington.

I assume this puts Tom Gordon in the closer role until Lidge comes back. I don't think they'll move Myers out of the rotation at this point.

Last week we heard Bartolo Colon was signing with the White Sox. Today, he agreed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

Empyreal Environs ponders the thought of Schilling and Colon in the same clubhouse:

Terry Francona, who signed a three-year extension today, had some concerns about both Schilling and Colon in the same clubhouse. "Wouldn't that much mass potentially warp the fabric of the space-time continuum?"

Joe Aiello looks at who should be leading off for the Cubs.

This seems appropriate for Dan Quisenberry's old team:

When sliding feet-first into a base, is your front foot straight up or sideways?

Before a game starts, what are the first two things a player should check?

Stumped? Don't fret. When first-base coach Rusty Kuntz asked the Kansas City Royals to take his quiz on outfield play and baserunning fundamentals, there were quite a few "who didn't have a clue."

But that was better than the first player Kuntz quizzed a couple of years ago in Pittsburgh.

"Out of 50 questions, the guy got five correct," Kuntz said. "And this was a starting player in the major leagues, a very well-known guy. I thought, `Oh, my gosh. Oh, my goodness.'"

So Kuntz came up with a detailed list of written questions and tried them out on a number of players. The results were encouraging.

"By the end of spring training, I gave the same player the same test, along with a bunch of other guys, and he got every one of them right," Kuntz said. "And I noticed that during the year, he responded quicker to certain situations. I thought if you can do that for outfield play, why not throw in some baserunning fundamentals?"

It's going to be an interesting summer in Kansas City. I don't think they'll contend, but I bet they play better than people expect.

The Red Sox signed Terry Francona through 2011 with club options for two more years. That's as it should be. The man led Boston to two World Series championships and handles the clubhouse deftly. At .578, the Red Sox have the second best winning percentage in the major leagues since 2004, twelve games behind the Yankees.

Congratulations, Terry!

This is the start of a new series to look at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections. The series kicks off with the San Diego Padres. Their starters posted the lowest ERA in the majors in 2007, 4.11.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the San Diego Padres top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Jake Peavy	192	70	3.28
Chris Young	164	66	3.62
Greg Maddux	180	88	4.40
Randy Wolf	117	62	4.77
Justin Germano	123	60	4.39
Totals	776	346	4.01

The squad posts a very good ERA, but falls very short of the number of innings needed from a starting staff. Using six innings per start as a benchmark, teams should aim for 972 innings from their starters. The Padres managed just 935 in 2007. That means they need to find about 200 innings. Some of those might come from Chris Young having a healthy season, and Justin Germano pitching a full year. No doubt, San Diego would like to see some of those come from a healthy Mark Prior. Given the Padres great bullpen, however, they can afford to fall a bit short of the 972 mark, as they did in 2007.

The New York Daily News recounts the events that led to Don Mattingly resigning his coaching job with the Dodgers.

The Zo Zone updates us on Brad Lidge's knee.

Ryan Zimmerman wants David Wright money, but the Nationals want to pay him Troy Tulowitzki money. I think that's a pretty gusty request from Zim coming off a season in which his OBA dropped twenty points to an unimpressive .330. Yes, he's a great defensive third baseman, but Wright is a true star. If Ryan posts a monster year in 2008, he can probably get a better deal from Washington as they would then face a huge arbitration salary increase. At this point, however, I believe Bowden is right to not sign Ryan to a Wright deal. He just hasn't proved he deserves it.

Brian Giles says his recovery from microfracture surgery is going well:

Giles did a deep-knee bend, squatting as a catcher would.

"Last year, I was unable to squat like this because my knee would catch," he said.

It's a familiar storyline, the surgically repaired ballplayer renewed by the prospect of a healthier season. It can be a cruel tease, or the happy starting point to a long journey ahead.

Giles, 37, said his body is telling him he is on the right track in his comeback from microfracture surgery performed last October, that he will return to the lineup in mid-March and start in right field in Petco Park on Opening Day, March 31.

"I've been doing sprints, running since the end of January, and I feel good," said Giles, who is entering the final guaranteed year of a contract that specifies a $9 million salary and a $3 million buyout on a $9 million club option for 2009.

A good knee, combined with a change in hitting mechanics might mean Giles returns to being a power hitter this season. At age 37, however, don't put too much hope on that outcome.

The Baltimore Sun profiles Rick Kranitz, the new Orioles pitching coach.

Largely because of Kranitz's history with molding young pitchers, the Orioles hired him in October to replace celebrated pitching coach Leo Mazzone. The Orioles had enlisted Mazzone after the 2005 season to build a pitching dynasty similar to the one he helped develop with the Atlanta Braves. Instead, his staffs over two seasons were wrecked by injuries and inexperience and posted two of the worst single-season team ERAs in franchise history.

Several Orioles tired of Mazzone's gruff demeanor and rigid methods and philosophies. Club officials, while respecting Mazzone's ability and resume, concluded he was not the right fit to mentor a young staff and decided not to retain him.

"Leo had a certain philosophy, and for that relationship to continue, you really had to make a commitment to teach that philosophy from Rookie ball on up," Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said. "Leo has a tremendous track record, and I thought he did a good job here. But we as an organization were not willing to commit to [his philosophy] the whole way through."

The Orioles have had a system philosophy of teaching everything the same way from rookie ball to the majors since Earl Weaver instituted it in the late 1960s. The organization is very hesitant to change that. I remember hearing a story in the 1990s. A new manager came in and wanted to change the way the team executed relay throws. Cal Ripken immediately stopped the idea, because it wasn't the Orioles way. If Mazzone's methods are as good as he showed in Atlanta, why not change the system and institute the method top to bottom?

Via WasWatching, Joel Sherman joins the Jeter debate:

But what is being missed here is the preponderance of evidence against Jeter's defensive game. This is not just one set of Ivy League academics calling Jeter the majors' worst fielding shortstop. Just about every respected baseball statistician who has publicized results reveals Jeter is, at best, among the poorest defensive shortstops in the game.

You can attack methodology; you can say no perfect formula has yet been devised to encapsulate all the elements - positioning, speed of the hit ball, field conditions - into a single defensive statistic. However, these metrics keep evolving in sophistication. And Jeter keeps faring poorly in nearly every study year after year. Do you think there is a conspiracy? Do you think statisticians en masse have covertly met and made their quest to soil Jeter's glovely reputation?

"This study has been done a zillion times and the same conclusion is reached every time," an AL official said. "What do you think that means?"

For Jeter devotees, it means assailing the geeks. But as an AL executive said, "this isn't geeks vs. jocks. This is myth vs. reality." In reality, most baseball officials laugh off the three Gold Gloves Jeter won from 2004-06 in the way they do the four Bernie Williams won as having more to do with offense, fame and winning than with actual defense.

I'm very glad this debate is now fully out in the open. It's easy to dismiss one study, but when all of them point in the same direction, year after year, people start to notice. It looks like one of those people was indeed Jeter:

Perhaps the strongest condemnation came from Jeter, who said, "Last year, I didn't have a good year defensively."

It doesn't sound like much, especially since Jeter limited a serial inadequacy to just 2007. Except Jeter is not one to ever publicly apologize for, or criticize, his own game. But this is more than words with Jeter. He rededicated himself in the offseason with exercises designed to improve his lateral quickness and first-step explosiveness. One Yankee official saw this version of Jeter and said, "He set the clock back five years."

"I'm a lot quicker, a lot more agile," Jeter said. "Only time will tell, but that is what I worked on."

Actions speak louder than words.

Rich Harden is off to a good start:

Harden fired his fastball about 95 mph for most of his 30-pitch session, but his final pitch came in about 98 mph. Johnson, who couldn't catch up to it, flung the bat away and gave a mock wave to a non-existent crowd.

"You want me to name that one?" he asked Harden. "That's 'the Eliminator.' It's a super-fastball."

Redleg Nation likes what Dusty Baker is saying about Joey Votto.

Sandy Koufax visited Pedro Martinez today and Bats talked to Pedro afterward.

Sandy's words were the first, first words I heard in Dodgertown. The things he talked about stuck in my mind about severance (perseverance) and being persistent and following your dreams and don't let it go ever. Those things have stuck with me. I like to spend time with him still.

I guess the Dodgers stand on the rubber differently than other organizations:

A lot of my mechanics are still from the Dodgers. A lot of that is Koufax, Drysdale, about hooking the rubber, and just staying on that rubber. I don't pitch off the rubber or on the side of the rubber. I'm on top of the rubber. Half of it. Half of my foot is on top of the rubber, hooking it. And the way we used our hips, that's how I learned in the Dodgers organization.

There's lots more great quotes at the link.

Brad Lidge threw one pitch and needed to be taken off the field:

"It was my push off leg," Lidge said. "I caught my spike in the mound. I threw the pitch but it felt like I pulled something in the knee. ... It swelled up a little, but I'm optimistic that I just pulled some scar tissue loose."

Doctors removed torn cartilage from the knee in the fall.

Meanwhile, Mark DeRosa needed to be carried off the field on a stretcher, but the report provides no reason. An injury to DeRosa might grease the skids for a Brian Roberts trade.

Update: DeRosa suffered from an irregular heartbeat:

"Mark's doing fine," manager Lou Piniella said. "He came in with a rapid heartbeat from doing the things on the field and was having a little trouble breathing, so they called in the medical team.

"He's completely stable, but better be safe than sorry. With the irregular heartbeat and so forth, they sent him to the hospital to test him and evaluate him. But he's fine."

A team spokesman said DeRosa felt faint but never lost consciousness.

"I talked to him. He was a little nervous and outside of that he's OK," Piniella said.

Team trainer Mark O'Neal accompanied DeRosa to the hospital.

"We'll find out what the medical staff or doctor at the hospital tells us to do," Piniella said. "I don't expect this to be serious and don't expect it to be too long."

Players make fun of Travis Hafner for owning a tiny dog:

Blake then went on to say that while he doesn't have a dog, if he did get one it would be "a manly dog."

We also own a small dog. When she was a puppy, my wife dropped her at a friend's house while we went on vacation. The husband looked at her and said, "That's not a man's dog!" When we returned a week later, he wanted to keep her.

Manny Ramirez retained Scott Boras as his agent. At least someone is talking to Scott.

If the Red Sox exercise their option on Ramirez next year, does Boras get the percentage, or do the agents who negotiated the original contract receive the check?

Chase Utley answers questions posed by fans. His priorities are in the right place:

Q: There are two cages over a pit of lava and both are descending. In one cage, there are blueprints for revolutionary emissions-free technology. In the other is Shane Victorino. You can only save one. Which one do you save?

- Greg G., Washington, D.C.

A: OK . . . I'm going to have to save my centerfielder. I'm saving my centerfielder, yes. I have his back. Hopefully, he'd do the same for me.

There's only one Shane Victorino. The technology can be reinvented!

Via WasWatching, Jeter says no to a position shift:

Many scouts believe Jeter would be able to make an easy transition to the outfield, where his speed, strong arm and terrific instincts would make him a natural. Asked about the possibility, Jeter waves off the question before it's finished.

"I ain't going out there," Jeter said. "It's not as easy as it sounds to just pick up a glove and say, 'I'm going to be an outfielder today.' It doesn't work like that."

As for his current position, Jeter feels he's a better shortstop now than he was during the early years of his career thanks to experience. By making the necessary adjustments on a regular basis, Jeter is constantly addressing what he feels are his strengths and weaknesses in the field. Just don't ask him what those are.

"I'll leave that to the computers to figure out," he said with a grin.

He doesn't move to his left or right well.

Francisco Liriano's visa woes are coming to an end:

Twins general manager Bill Smith said Friday he thinks Liriano will pick up his visa in the Dominican Republic on Monday, which would mean the pitcher likely wouldn't get to spring training until at least Tuesday.

...

Liriano has been stuck in the Dominican Republic for more than a week, delaying the left-hander's return from elbow ligament replacement surgery. Because of a new U.S. law, people who have a recent DUI on their records are required to attend an alcohol assessment before getting their visas to enter the country.

Liriano, who had a DUI in 2006, and the Twins were unaware of the development, and the former All-Star has been scrambling to meet the requirements ever since.

He's been working out at the Twins academy in the DR, so he shouldn't be too far behind. Besides, coming off Tommy John surgery, the Twins will want him to take it slow anyway.

The Rocket's lawyer concedes that Clemens may have been at Jose Canseco's party. That's another shot at Roger's credibility.

Citizen Sports Network is now producing video about major league baseball. Check it out below:

Home Run Derby starts a series on imbalances in the 2008 interleague schedule. Somehow, the Cubs avoid both the Yankees and Red Sox but get to play Tampa Bay, Toronto and Baltimore.

My solution to this is a total division realignment with five six-team divisions. Each team plays 90 games against their division rivals, and 36 games each against two other divisions, and those rotate from year to year. Of course, they'd need to do away with the AL and NL, have five division winners and three wild cards. But at least the schedule would be somewhat sane.

George Sherrill wins the prize:

Reliever George Sherrill left today's workout with some discomfort in his right hamstring. He grabbed the back of his leg and walked to the trainers room from one of the back fields before receiving treatment. No word on how this could impact his participation tomorrow.

First there was the window, and now Mussina is cracking jokes.

The pitchers also had a lot of running today. An exhausted Mussina came back to the clubhouse and said, "Tomorrow we'll go to the airport to pull planes with our teeth."

Phil Hughes sat slumped in his chair. He's working out with Andy Pettitte in the morning and doing the running in the afternoon. By the end of the day, he can barely move.

"You're only 22, you should be fine," Mussina said.

"I'm 21," Hughes said.

"See?" Mussina said. "I'm old, I can complain."

Maybe when his pitching career is over Mike can be the funny sidekick in the booth. :-)

Carl Crawford and Delmon Young conduct a war of words in the press. Delmon gets in a IIWII.

Francisco Rodriguez lost his arbitration case with the Angels, but still ties the record for an arbitration away at $10 million. Unlike, Howard, however, Rodriguez faced his last season of arbitration as he moves to free agency next year. K-Rod has alternated great seasons with incredibly great season during his career, and he's due for an incredibly great one in 2008. That should net him a nice deal from some team next year.

Trey Hillman raises the possibility of batting Ross Gload third:

Hillman views Mark Teahen as the most likely No. 3 hitter but admits to giving serious thought to using Ross Gload in that role.

"I want backup options," Hillman said, "and I like Ross Gload, although he doesn't have a lot of experience (in that role). I like his swing."

...

"Now that I've seen his swing for a couple of days," he said, "just throw the stats out. I've seen his swing. It's short. It's compact. He doesn't have the pop of an Alex Gordon, nor the pop of a (Jose) Guillen, nor the pop of a (Mark) Teahen.

"But I like the swing, and I like the slug that comes with it -- the doubles. I'm not announcing him as our No. 3 hitter. But it's in the mix."

This sort of makes we wonder if Hillman has looked at some of the lineup models that show the number three slot isn't as important as it seems to be in the traditional lineup. The Lineup Analysis Tool puts Gload third in a few of its top twenty lineups for the Royals.

There's a great article in the Wall Street Journal today about Johan Santana silencing bats with strikeouts. Thanks to David Gerstman for the link.

The New York Daily News reports that a photo exists of Roger Clemens at Jose Canseco's party:

Their leads could include new photographic evidence that has emerged to potentially undermine Clemens' sworn testimony that he did not attend a 1998 party at the home of his then-teammate Jose Canseco - a party that figured both in the Mitchell Report and the Feb.13 public hearing in Washington.

The photo is owned by a young man who attended the party when he was 11 years old and took photos of his baseball heroes, including Clemens. Richard Emery, one of the lawyers for Clemens accuser Brian McNamee, was aware that such evidence had been circulating this week.

The party seems irrelevant to me. It's the kind of thing that fades with time, so it's quite possible McNamee or Clemens or both don't remember the details well, or are conflating multiple events into one. Clemens attending or not attending the party proves nothing.

The George Washington University baseball team gets to christen Nationals Park on March 22nd.

I haven't seen anything else on-line about this, but such a game is certainly doable. GW is scheduled to host St. Joseph on that day in Arlington. The connections are there too. Nationals' owner Ted Lerner is a GW alumnus as well as three other members of the Lerner family (hat tip to JD). The game would serve as a dry run and give those college players the thrill of a lifetime.

It's always good to test out any new product with real people. This will give the Nationals a chance to fix any problems that might arise with bathrooms, concession lines and people just moving through the stadium.

Jonathan Mayo is a senior writer at MLB.com covering the minor leagues. His new book, Facing Clemens: Hitters on Confronting Baseball's Most Intimidating Pitcher, hits stores March 1st. Jon finished the book before the Mitchell report appeared, and wanted to weigh in on the subject.

Well, the dust has settled...for the moment. While everyone will wait for the next step ... an indictment, a guest spot on "The Moment of Truth," whatever it is, I can finally take a breath and try to figure out what all this Roger Clemens stuff means to me.

Why am I different than anyone else? I'm not really, other than the fact I recently completed my first book and boy, do I have interesting timing. It's called "Facing Clemens: Hitters on Confronting Baseball's Most Intimidating Pitcher." I kid you not. It was written, needless to say, before the Mitchell Report was released and there's nary a word about steroids, HGH, Vitamin B12 or eight-year old gauze.

It is, in pretty much every sense of the term, a pure baseball book. OK, so maybe pure isn't the best word to use, but you get the idea. I talked to some of the greats of the game over the last generation, from Cal Ripken Jr. to Ken Griffey Jr., from Gary Carter to Torii Hunter about the challenges of trying to hit Clemens over the course of his quarter-century career. Seemed like a nice, simple first foray into the book-writing world. Boy, was I unprepared for what was to come.

Since all the news has broken, I'm constantly peppered with questions from friends and family about whether it will help or hurt sales (I'm leaning toward helping), if I'm going to write an epilogue about all this stuff (sorry, no time for it) and, of course, who I believe (not really relevant right now). I've become a kind of pseudo-Clemens expert, though I never talked to the man for the book (I did do a chapter with his son, Koby, and he wrote the foreword).

In the end, I feel the book still stands on its own merits. Whether you think Clemens is guilty (Andy Pettitte's sworn testimony makes it hard not to, doesn't it?) or whether you think his vehement denials are sincere, the challenge of facing Clemens as a hitter hasn't changed. Maybe the respect the players I interviewed for the book had for Clemens has dissipated, but they still had to figure out how to hit him when he was a young fireballer and then figure out how to avoid seeing that splitter later on. Even if there had been public knowledge that Clemens was taking something he shouldn't have been, it's not like Torii Hunter would have refused to get in the box against him, seeking his first hit against the Rocket (he went 0-for-28).

Now maybe I'm being naïve and maybe I just want to sell a few more books. Both could be true. I still think that the insights the hitters gave into trying to make a living off arguably the elite right-hander of his era (Again, whether he cheated is beside the point. He was thought of in that echelon before all of this went down) makes for a pretty compelling book. I hope you agree with me.

As for where I stand on all of this, I'd love to stay impartial. But I also know that would be a weak stance to take. For the longest time, I really wanted to believe in Roger Clemens' innocence. I've been covering baseball long enough not to be shocked by anyone's indiscretions, but for once I wanted one person, especially an icon of this nature, to be wrongfully accused, for his denials to be 100 percent sincere. Alas, it has become increasingly difficult to do so and I've seen the faint hope of redemption pretty much extinguished by the testimony of Andy Pettitte. Who knows, maybe I'll be wrong and the Rocket will prevail. I'll still hope so because that would be good for the game of baseball. But I won't hold my breath.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff figures out why Ryan Howard won his arbitration case:

But here's where Howard probably won his case: star-power. Consider Subsection 12 of Article IV, Section F, which lays out the admissible in an arbitration hearing [hat tip: One Chair]:

"the quality of the player's contribution to his club during the past season... This includes - but is not limited to - his overall on-field performance, his leadership abilities, and his public appeal..."

Howard is everywhere. He has a major endorsement deals with Subway and Adidas and graces the cover of video games and magazines. And don't forget, locally, the Phillies market the heck out of him too.

It's another reason for great players to be good to the press and good to the community. It could mean an extra $3 million.

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at which players are providing the least bang for the buck while playing under big money contracts.

Hunter Pence keeps having bad luck:

Hunter Pence's teammates got quite a laugh in the clubhouse this morning when he almost hurt himself taking "dry" swings, or air swings as he called them.

With a bat, Pence made his swing motion and took a pretty strong stroke, hitting his arms on a laundry cart behind him.

Pence smiled sheepishly as his good friend, Tommy Manzella, the shortstop prospect, shook his head.

"Hunter," Manzella said, "go sit down."

El Duque's toe is shorter:

At his blog for Newsday, David Lennon reports that Orlando Hernandez did not have a bunion removed as the Mets said he did.

Instead, "He had surgery to fix a dislocated second toe, which is now actually shorter, affecting his balance," Lennon explains. "Because of that, Hernandez is lagging behind the other pitchers as he tries to adjust

."

We take our toes for granted, but they play a huge part in our mobility.

The Diamondbacks signed Josh Byrnes and Derrick Hall to long term deals, bringing stability to the front office for another eight years. I've liked what Josh has done since taking over the team, building a good young squad while keeping costs down. AZ Snakepit likes the president's accessibility:

Good to see Derrick Hall will be sticking around too, and committing long-term to the future. He has proven to be very approachable and 'out there', along with the fans in the trenches. Most regular attendees have seen him, or have a story of meeting him; mine is when he showed up, unannounced, at a DBBP get-together before a game, and just hung out with us for a bit. Can't really imagine Garigiola or Colangelo doing that. Kinda smart too to keep on the side of the die-hards who bleed Sedona Red. :-)

Via Lone Star Ball, the Rangers are coming together as a team.

Manny Ramirez is in the last year of his Red Sox contract, although Boston holds two option years:

"I want to stay here, but it's up to them if they want to bring me," he said. "But if they don't want to bring me back, that's fine. I know I'll be a free agent after '08 so that's another thing that I'm looking forward (to)."

The slugging left fielder is in the last year of an eight-year contract. Beyond that, the team has options for the next two seasons at $20 million each.

"It's up to them to say, `OK, we're going take (the option). It's not up to me to go into the office and demand a four-year deal, whatever," the 35-year-old Ramirez said. " No, I'm going come here to play the game, finish my year. If they want me to come back, I'll come back."

Boston is in an interesting situation. Manny is at the age when his skill are more likely to diminish, so he may very well not be worth $20 million next year. His skills, however, might still be so good that losing him would hurt the team. Might the Red Sox let him go as a free agent, then try to sign him at a lower price if that's what the market sets? If that happens, would Manny even bother dealing with Boston?

It sounds like Gary Sheffield isn't talking to Scott Boras, either.

Via MLB FanHouse, Derek Jeter and Gene Michael talk about the shortstop's poor range:

"Maybe it was a computer glitch," the three-time Gold Glove winner said of the report. But Jeter just didn't laugh this one off. He defended himself, saying, "Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Jeter, 33, pointed out you can get the exact same ground ball off the exact same pitcher and there could be an average runner or there could be Ichiro running. "How can you compute that?" he asked.

You can't. That's one reason Yankees senior advisor Gene Michael was infuriated by the University of Pennsylvania report.

"Something like that is a disgrace," the scout said. "It made me ill when I read that article. First of all, what pitching staff was out there? Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls.

"You simply can't do that by those charts, that's a bunch of baloney," Michael added. "It's disgraceful. You have to use a scout's eye to determine range."

Of course, we do take most of those factors into account. For every Ichiro running to first, there's a Jason Giambi. Over time, those factors even out. As for the pitching staff, the Yankees have undergone numerous changes over the last few years, and somehow Derek stays at the bottom of the pack.

I'd also like to comment on one thing from the FanHouse post (emphasis added):

Baseball's different. It's very easy to watch Jeter fly deep in the hole, plant, pivot and gun a runner and come to the conclusion that he's a great fielder. It's a pretty play, full of athleticism and grace and that's more memorable than a grounder that finds a hole or a double play that doesn't get turned. That doesn't make it more important, though. These kinds of analysis help us understand baseball in its fullest context. That context, however, doesn't matter much when Jeter cuts off a poor throw, flips it to the plate and saves a run.

If Jeter actually planted and pivoted in the hole, I think his numbers would be better. What he actually does is stop, jump and throw, using only his arm to get the ball to first. His movement is more like a skater transferring kinetic energy from the horizontal to the vertical with a toe pick. None of that energy is being used to hurl the ball toward first base. I cringe every time he tries to make that play, because no matter how good it looks, it's the wrong way to throw. If he stopped, planted and used his whole body to send the ball across the diamond, he'd make a stronger and more accurate throw. How many times does that toss pull the first baseman off the bag or sail over his head? David Eckstein can make the plant and throw play, why can't the bigger and stronger Jeter?

Update: Tango's take.

Update: 100% Injury Rate chimes in. He points to some old data that shows Jeter wasn't the best fielding shortstop on his team, with the same pitching staff. The same things shows up in 2007 PMR. As a team, the Yankees shortstops produced 38 fewer outs than expected. Jeter, however, produced forty fewer outs than expected! So the replacements were a bit better.

Ryan Howard won his arbitration battle:

Ryan Howard has won his salary arbitration hearing against the Phillies, a baseball source told The Inquirer this morning.

He will make $10 million this season.

The Phillies had offered $7 million.

"We'll talk after," Howard said before the team's workout this morning at Bright House Field. "I've got to get dressed now."

Although $7 million was probably a good number to offer Howard, the Phillies did low ball him. My gut is that Howard played well enough over the last two years to at least earn enough as Cabrera when you factor in the increase in MLB revenue. I have no doubt the Phillies would have won if they offered $8 million.

Randall Lompe does a poor job of attacking the people who don't agree with him on the DH, and shows he doesn't understand the dynamics of player selection:

And there's a simple solution to the pitcher being a sure out: make him take batting practice. Several people pointed out that at the Little League and High School levels, superior hitting and pitching skills are often found in the same athlete. Why is this lost at the higher levels?

Might not a sharp manager push his pitchers to perform a little bit better at the plate, just as pitchers are required to hustle to first on a ball hit to the right side of the infield? Aren't they all drilled on that? Perhaps greater expectations would improve the breed.

No. Pitchers hit well at low levels of competition because they are the best athletes on the team. When millions of 12 to 18 year olds are playing, it's tough to concentrate 25 good ones on one team. So the best athlete is the best pitcher/fielder/hitter. But when you go up to the minor leagues, you're talking about a few thousand players, all pulled from the extreme right end of the bell curve. Now there's real competition. Some hit better, some field better, some pitch better, so in order to survive they specialize. And pitching takes so much work and is so important, hitting becomes secondary to those players.

Hitting takes hours of practice. Five more minutes in the batting cage won't make a difference. Hitters need to train their pattern recognizers to tell a changeup from a fastball, and the only way they do that is to see thousands of examples. Meanwhile, pitching takes just as much practice, creating a motion that screws with the hitter's pattern recognizers. Pitchers as a group are never going to hit well!

There's nothing wrong with liking the DH. My only problem with the position is that it's a waste of money, because the older hitters who occupy the slot don't produce enough to justify their contracts. Saying the answer to the DH is better hitting pitchers, however, is the worst argument I've ever heard.

The Red Sox/Athletics series in Tokyo sold out. That should help the A's attendance for the year.

David Bloom creates a nice tool at Many Eyes to visualize the Chone projections. Here's the hitters, and the pitching plots are here.

Hal McCoy is reporting the Cincinnati Reds signed Josh Fogg to a one-year, $1 million contract. Red Reporter doesn't think too much of the deal. For one million, they get a pitcher who is used to a launching pad. Seems like a no lose situation. If he has a good year, they got a pitcher cheap. If he pitches poorly, it's only a $1 million out the door.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

I guess Ryan Howard's arbitration hearing will end in a true result:

Tal Smith, who prepared and presented the case for the Phillies, said the hearing was not contentious. "It doesn't need to be [contentious]," Smith said.

Howard wasn't so sure. "I don't know about that," Howard said. "We'll see tomorrow. I'm always upbeat, you'd think I'd be anything different? Regardless, we went in, we had a process and we find out tomorrow how it goes. But either way, it is what it is."

I like the LoHud Yankees Blog quote of the day from Jeter:

"I missed (Joe Torre) when we were running. We haven't run that much in the past."

As Peter points out, last season's hamstring injuries were attributed to the team not running enough.

Nationals Journal liked what they saw at the Elijah Dukes press conference:

Your new Washington Nationals outfielder just finished an approximately 20-minute press conference here at Space Coast Stadium, and I have to say it was an impressive performance, relative to the expectations. He was composed, confident, introspective at times, and seemed genuinely thankful for the opportunity and the support the Nationals are giving him.

Has anyone noticed the Nationals are taking the opposite approach of the Colorado Rockies? The Rockies go out of their way to sign players with good character. The Nationals, with Dukes, Fick, and Young are a repository for recovering jerks. I wonder if one approach is better than the other. Sometimes the jerks are really good players.

Phil Allard at WCBS radio in New York notes Mike Mussina's desire to teach Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. He also points out that Mike is likely to rebound in 2008.

The venerable Voros McCracken weighs in:

"It seems likely Mussina's hits per balls in play will come down as nobody (not even non-pitchers who try and pitch) have rates consistently as high as his was in 2007. The big question is whether at his age we might be seeing a lessening of his stuff which might lead to fewer strikeouts and more home runs.

I think he probably should be better, but I'm not sure that means he's necessarily going to be "good." League average is a reasonable best case scenario (like his 2005) and with the Yankees offense that would be plenty to win games with."

Phil also shows some impressive all-time ranks for Mike.

Jacob Luft of SI joins the blogging world with his new site, Luft on Deck. Stop by and say hi, and check out his post on how teams with publicly funded ballparks reinvest their stadium income.

It's a rite of spring, Manny Ramirez is late for camp. What's unusual is that Manny said he'll be on time this year. Of course, these report dates are meaningless. The actual report date is written in the CBA, making mandatory report dates optional. Nobody actually gets in trouble until Feb. 26.

Update: Manny does show!

He arrived in a white Cadillac Escalade, stayed for about a half hour, and then left.

That must have been some workout! :-)

Joe Posnanski reports on Trey Hillman's training camp:

So, sure, it only makes sense to wonder how Hillman will bring East and West together as manager of the Kansas City Royals. Will he ask players to bow? Will he put them through the famously rigid training methods of Japanese baseball? Sushi?

Well, it's only been one day, but it seems pretty clear already that the answer is: None of the above. The Royals' camp on Tuesday looked, more or less, like every other spring training camp. There were a few subtle differences, of course, which we'll get to in a moment. But the most striking part of the first day of Camp Trey is how familiar it all looked. Players hit, fielded, pitched. That's all. They stayed on the field about the same length of time as years past. They did many of the same drills. If you didn't know any better, this camp would have looked like Buddy Bell's, Joe Torre's or Bobby Cox's.

Hillman is not trying to revolutionize American baseball. "I'm not that smart," he says.

Still there are things Hillman is doing differently, from having pitchers throw with dummies standing in for batters to having his fielders play catch more. I can't wait to see if it makes a difference.

By the way, my daughter is in Japan on a school trip, and I'm told she bought me a Nippon Ham Fighters hat while in Sapporo. I'll post a picture when she returns.

Big League Stew posts an artist's rendering of the proposed new stadium for the Rays. It's really a work of art.

Call the Braves shortstop "Hand Crusher."

We've already spent more than enough time commenting on the improved strength and conditioning of several Braves during this offseason, but please allow me just one more case. It's worth it.

Because the Braves shortstop is ripped. Seriously. If there is a stronger shortstop outside of the Bronx, I'm not aware of him.

And I wasn't the only person who noticed how much muscle Escobar added since October. You know how when you shake someone's hand sometimes and they get all fingers, but you can usually adjust and recover to make it a real handshake and not quite so embarrassing?

Reliever Blaine Boyer said he shook Escobar's hand this morning and had that happen, only he couldn't get his fingers out to adjust. Escobar squeezed and Boyer said he just about broke his fingers. I'm sure Boyer was exaggerating, too, but you get the point.

We'll keep our eyes on Escobar's hitting this season. He's already off to an impressive major league start.

The battle between fans of the Mets and Phillies to take over each other's ballpark heats up as Metsblog.com posts a link that allows you to buy Phillies single game tickets online before they are available to the general public.

Evan Grant praises the way the Ian Kinsler deal came about:

The negotiations took the entire offseason and there were some hurt feelings on both sides of the negotiations along the way. But in mid-January, Jon Daniels, Thad Levine and Kinsler's lead agent, Jay Franklin, put aside the tension that can build during protracted negotiations and put Kinsler first.

The Rangers probably didn't want to go above $20 million. The Kinsler camp probably wanted a guarantee closer to the $27 million that Brandon Phillips got from Cincinnati for four years. In the end, though, they reached a compromise that represents neither a "win" for the Daniels/Levine or for Franklin. What it does represent is a win for Kinsler and for partnership. Being willing to work as a legitimate partner will help the Rangers in negotiations with free agents more than any recruiting pitches or video presentations.

That's a great point. It's one Major League Baseball and the MLBPA should embrace when dealing with each other. They're partners, not adversaries.

The Pirates sign Byung-Hyun Kim to a major league contract. They're looking to use him as a reliever, although I don't see any way this improves the team. I suppose putting Kim on the mound is better than having to forfeit games because there's no one else to send out to be shelled. Kim has not pitched well since the 2003 season.

Peter Abraham provides a summary of Alex Rodriguez's press conference, and then provides the full unedited audio.

Right now, Peter is the best journalist/blogger in the business. He constantly keeps us informed and uses multiple ways of presenting a story. We get his filtered views and the unfiltered news. Let's hope more beat writers catch on to his methods.

Eric Chavez discusses his three surgeries:

In November, Chavez had a procedure to remove damaged tissue from his left shoulder. Before that, he had right shoulder surgery performed by Dr. Lewis Yocum on Sept. 5 to repair a torn labrum, fix a damaged biceps tendon and remove a loose body from the joint. Then on Oct. 9, Chavez had surgery on his back.

In hindsight, he wishes he would have had the operation on his right shoulder after the 2006 season instead, saying it was a "foregone conclusion." The left shoulder, which began bothering him again during rehab on the right side, surprised him most. There was a fairly significant tear in that side also.

"It was kind of a relief because I knew the problems I was having with my arms, now I knew there was a relation there," he said. "The two surgeries, the right shoulder and the back, I was fine with. When I heard about the third, I was kind of waving the white flag a little bit."

That's quite a lot of healing to go through in one winter. The Athletics shouldn't expect much from Eric any more, but it would be a pleasant surprise if he does return somewhat to form and a boost for the A's offense.

It looks like Bartolo Colon will get a chance to pitch for the White Sox.

Update: Ozzie Guillen says this report is not true. Stay tuned.

Steve Buckley says what everyone knows:

If Ellsbury can handle the pressure of the World Series as though it's the Little League back home in Madras, Ore., he's not likely to get unglued by what the big leagues have to offer in April.

But the Red Sox, perhaps to their credit, have to play the respect-for-the-game game. In the interest of decorum, and in fairness to Crisp, they are treating their center field job as though it's Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fighting for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Crisp's value at this point is almost all defensive. He gives the Red Sox the flexibility to improve the defense late in games by removing Manny. It even makes Manny's requests for days off easier to manage. Given that Manny isn't exactly young anymore, the Red Sox may ask him to take days off to help him get through the season without wearing down.

Players get to talk in the Giants clubhouse now:

Just before Tuesday's first full-squad workout of 2008, the Giants held what longtime observers described as one of the most unusual welcome-to-camp meetings in years.

Customarily, the manager shares a few thoughts on the first morning the entire team is together, and Bruce Bochy offered what one player called a rousing speech. Then, several players, including new center fielder Aaron Rowand, stood and spoke.

That might not be unusual elsewhere, but according to insiders, that rarely happened when Barry Bonds was here because people were reluctant to step on his toes. (Bonds was known sometimes to pooh-pooh teammates' comments during the meetings.)

This is the second Barry was a jerk story I've seen this spring. I suspect it won't be the last.

John Haper points out this spring's Yankees camp is going to be tougher for the players:

That was part of the reasoning for choosing Girardi over Don Mattingly as the new manager. After all the years of Joe Torre's calming influence, Cashman and the Yankee brass wanted someone who would be a little tougher on players.

And although Girardi has downplayed it, his first camp has included considerably more running for the pitchers and catchers than Torre's camps, and the same is expected today for the first full-squad workout.

The article also speaks to Damon's motivation:

"I'm ready to go out and prove to everyone that I'm still a pretty good player," he said. "I've been pretty consistent over my career, but when you talk about the good players in the league now my name hardly comes up, and I don't think that's right.

Good for Johnny, he's staying competitive.

Update: In a related story, Joe Girardi shows he knows the best defensive alignment for his offense:

"He told me, 'I need you at first base,' " Giambi said yesterday at Legends Field on the eve of the first full squad spring training workout. "It was nice to hear."

If Giambi, who missed nine weeks last season with a foot problem, can stay healthy and produce while playing first base, Girardi will have solved the headache of how to get Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Giambi in the lineup together. Other than finding who can help in the bullpen, the Damon-Matsui-Giambi triangle puzzle is the Yankees' biggest question in camp.

Jason at first gives the Yankees their best possible lineup, and allows Damon, Matsui and Giambi to play every day.

Ryan Howard and the Phillies likely go to arbitration today, barring a last minute settlement. Jim Salisbury talks to three arbitration veterans to get an idea of what goes on in a hearing:

Arbitration hearings have been portrayed as battlefields, but all three men say that is overblown. Just as many are civil as are contentious.

Still, the player must be prepared to hear things he might not like. Howard might hear about his record 199 strikeouts last season. He might hear about his batting average dropping 45 points. He might hear that the team believes his salary should be comparable to that of Miguel Cabrera, who needed to win his case to get $7.4 million last season.

"In every case, the player will be looked at critically, and weaknesses will be spoken about," agent No. 1 said. "You have to prepare the player for that. Whatever can be looked up statistically - even what you didn't do as well as the year before - you should expect to hear.

"These are very competitive people - not just the players, but the lawyers, too. The object is to win. You're not going to hold back valid criticism. But it can be presented softly or harshly."

Probably the best way for Ryan to approach the hearing is that no matter what happens, he's going to be a rich man.

C.C. Sabathia doesn't want his contract status to be a distraction. AOL FanHouse points out a distraction is unavoidable:

If the Indians come out of the gate slowly, everybody will want to know if Sabathia's going to be traded. If the Tribe start off hot, and C.C. is giving an encore performance of 2007, everybody's going to want to know if he's going to go the route of Johan Santana and take the big bucks and bright lights of New York City.

The only way this story wouldn't be a distraction is if Sabathia and the Indians can come to terms on a new deal. Until then, he's just going to have to deal with it.

It may be a distraction for the Cleveland fans, but my guess is that Milliliter didn't want to get in a situation in which he became upset at Cleveland management. Contract talks can be contentious. This way, C.C. can relax. The worst thing that can happen after the season is he has an off year and gets Zito money instead of Santana money from some team.

Another ballplayer suffers circulatory problems:

Left-hander John Rheinecker will miss at least the first half of the season, and it may leave the Rangers without a second left-handed reliever ahead of the closer.

Rheinecker was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, a condition that limits blood flow to the extremities. It is the same condition that wrecked third baseman Hank Blalock's 2007 season. The Rangers expect Rheinecker to have surgery to remove the top rib, as Blalock did, in order to improve blood flow.

"Pretty much every symptom I described, the doctor said was on the list," Rheinecker said. "Hopefully once I get back from this, I'll be the pitcher the Rangers traded for."

It seems there are a number of players who suffer from blood flow problems. Oil Can Boyd, David Cone and Kip Wells immediately come to mind. I wonder how much this occurs in the general population.

While the Mets are trying to decide who owns the red Escalade, Jim Bowden goes around on a red, pimped out vehicle of his own.

That pretty much sums up the two franchises.

Congratulations to Dave Niehaus:

Niehaus has been chosen as the 2008 winner of the Ford C. Frick Award for broadcast excellence. He will be honored during the Hall of Fame induction ceremony July 27 at Cooperstown, N.Y. The announcement Tuesday comes on Niehaus' 73rd birthday.

One of the great things about the MLB Extra Innings package is that the whole country gets to hear top announcers like Niehaus on a daily basis.

The Mets are 10% ahead of ticket sales compared to last year. Last summer, writing at Baseball Prospectus, I noticed how attendance started taking off with the advent of free agency (subscription required):

Apart from short boosts, however, baseball remained relatively static. The fan base didn't seem to change, and even moving franchises around the country and adding expansion teams didn't help. Dividing leagues into divisions didn't help. There was one change baseball needed that had nothing to do with the game on the field or communications technology--baseball needed constant dynamism.

That happened in the mid 1970s with the advent of free agency. Look at how the trend line keeps going up from 1976. The dividing line couldn't be clearer--from Messersmith and McNally onward, fan interest grew. Fans like the dynamic rosters that resulted from free agency. The money involved fascinated us; where $100,000 was a huge salary beforehand, suddenly players were making $1 million a year. Teams could seemingly go from also-rans to contenders overnight. Worst-to-first became a reality. The game now held the interest of the faithful 365 days a year.

Here's just another example. Paying lots of money for a player gets the fans interested.

Gelf Magazine takes an in-depth look at the phrase, "It is what it is." They include a excellent Venn diagram.

U.S.S. Mariners posts a long and thoughtful piece on Alex Rodriguez's Mariner legacy.

Was Alex greedy to take the offer with the most money? Greed's used because it has such a negative connotation, but really, there are two questions: was greed his only motivator, and is it bad for him to be greedy?

The post is well worth the read.

Pedro Martinez practices pitching with his eyes closed:

The ball was crackling out of Pedro Martinez's right hand during his bullpen session Tuesday morning, hitting Dave Racaniello's mitt with authority every time. But when one, then two, then three balls sailed wide, a few other reporters and I started wondering what happened. Was this a new pitch? Was Pedro hurt?

The answer was revealed just a few minutes ago when Pedro said that he was pitching with his eyes closed. And not just for those three balls (and another that Racaniello had to stretch for). He estimated that he threw 15 pitches with his eyes closed, which is what he did last year during his rehabilitation.

Pretty cool. He must be listening to Obi-Wan:

Your eyes can deceive you; don't trust them.

Here's why Andy Pettitte wouldn't talk about Roger Clemens at his Monday news conference:

McNamee attorney Richard Emery said Pettitte will be a central witness in the defamation suit Clemens filed last month against his former trainer. Pettitte may be required to sit for depositions and meet with his own attorneys - even as the Yankees prepare for spring training and the 2008 season.

"If I were Andy Pettitte, I would be furious at Roger for filing this case, because Clemens is now pursuing a frivolous defamation case against Brian, who will be forced to have his lawyers grill Pettitte much more thoroughly and painfully than Congress did," libel specialist Emery told the Daily News. "He will be dragged out of the middle of the season, out of the rotation, because of Roger Clemens."

Hunter Pence spent the night in the emergency room:

Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence was apparently injured in a freak accident on Monday, suffering lacerations to both his hands and knees in an accident through a sliding glass door.

A team spokesman for the Astros told the Houston Chronicle that Pence spent part of Monday night in the emergency room at a local hospital and will be examined Tuesday morning by team physician David Lintner.

The team is still verifying the accident and more information is expected to be released Tuesday.

It sounds like the wounds were superficial, but stay tuned.

WasWatching praises Hank Steinbrenner for deflecting attention away from Andy Pettitte:

It's a page right out of Big Stein's playbook. Say or do something that will direct the attention towards you and away from the team or a player. Andy Pettitte is getting his share of press today. But, thanks to Hank, it's not all on Andy.

On the surface, Steinbrenner railing at football for having a bigger problem just seems like sour grapes. WasWatching may be giving Hank too much credit here, although the outcome is likely a good one. It reminds me of my favorite Toby quote from The Office:

Toby: [talking to the camera while Ryan and Kelly make out in through the window] I don't think Michael intended to punish me by putting Ryan back here with Kelly, but if he did intend that? Wow...genius.

The Astros won their arbitration case against Mark Loretta:

The Houston Astros defeated former All-Star Mark Loretta in salary arbitration Tuesday, improving teams to 5-0 against players this year and clinching the 12th consecutive winning year for management.

I'm a bit surprised at this. With twelve straight seasons in which management has done better, isn't it about time for the players representatives to revisit how they handle arbitration cases? If I'm a player, and I see this record, I'm going to demand my side settle next year. Management clearly has a much better handle on what these players are worth.

Yard Work takes down Murray Chass.

An excellent Young Frankenstein reference at The Soxaholix.

Maybe what really happened is Gagne sent his imbecile personal assistant, Igor, to go get him Human Growth Hormone but what Igor actually got Gagne was Human Loath Hormone.

Miguel Tejada's lawyers take the right approach:

Miguel Tejada said he's been advised by attorneys not to comment on the Mitchell Report or an FBI investigation looking into his alleged link to steroids.

"I can't really talk about that situation," Tejada said Tuesday morning upon arriving at Houston Astros training camp. "Right now, I just want to talk about baseball, because that's really my focus."

That's why you pay lawyers, so they can do the talking.

Eric Byrnes has a Shaggin' Wagon.

The Rangers are looking to sign Ian Kinsler to a five-year deal.

According to a source, the framework of the deal is for five guaranteed years worth a little more than $20 million. The clubs have also been talking about an option for a sixth year that, if exercised, would carry the value to more than $30 million.

That seems like a good deal for the Rangers. Kinsler is a good hitter for a second baseman, and he's just entering his prime period. He'd likely do much better than that deal over three years of arbitration. This is the John Hart influence on Texas. Sign your players young, then don't worry about arbitration and free agency. When the contract is up, they're past their prime and the club can say goodbye.

Update: Here is the latest on the deal.

Rich Harden threw well in his simulated game Monday:

"It went very well," said Harden, who threw all his pitches and was working especially on his breaking ball. "I felt great, and what I'm most happy about ... is that I threw 30 warm-up pitches and then 40 pitches and I wasn't tired at all. Everything was really nice and easy. I felt very comfortable."

Harden's fastball and changeup looked sharp and though his breaking ball was up in the zone a little, he managed to bring it down toward the end of the session.

Meanwhile, Dan Johnson appears to be infection prone. He fought both viral meningitis and sinusitis over the winter, the sinusitis nearly putting him out of action:

A recent bout of sinusitis turned so severe, Johnson revealed Monday, that he had to spend eight days in the hospital late last month - and he nearly had to have a hole drilled into his forehead.

That treatment, however, would have meant he'd be out of action for two months, and Johnson, in a perpetual fight for a roster spot, didn't want to miss any time.

"I said, 'No, no, no! I have to get back to my job,' " Johnson said.

So rather than have the hole drilled and the sinuses drained, then packed with material to prevent further infection, Johnson requested to be treated with antibiotics.

He's down 15 pounds from last year. It seems medically, Murphy's law applies to Dan. Maybe he and Nick Johnson should form a club!

Joe Torre talks about the end of his career with the Yankees:

His situation began to sour, he reflected, after his team blew a lead of three games to none to the archrival Red Sox in the 2004 American League Championship Series.

"The last 3 years were difficult. I think it started probably with losing to the Red Sox. Because that becomes a mortal sin," he said. "And even though the Red Sox were obviously a very good team that year, we got lucky early. They didn't play well. Then we had two leads in Games 4 and 5 we couldn't hold onto.

"Since that time, it may be a little too strong to say [the Yankees] wanted to make a change. But for me it wasn't as comfortable. It could have been self-induced. I don't know. Last season was very uncomfortable, especially with the bad start we had. There were a lot of questions and stories I had to address.

"I'm sure it took its toll on me, but when you walk into the clubhouse and all of a sudden the players aren't sure what they should say, what they shouldn't say, your coaching staff, that made it doubly uncomfortable for me. I just think over the last few years it was gradually getting to the point of not being a helluva lot of fun. The baseball was still fun, but aside from that . . . "

Over at AOL FanHouse, Barry Zito changes his mind about Barry Bonds.

Cardinals Diaspora notices the parallel pitching staffs on St. Louis:

The one staff will be rife with all-star potential and amazing 'stuff'. They will be virtually unbeatable, but paradoxically unable to be beat, since they never actually 'play'. The second staff will be castoffs, degenerates and scofflaw's who's mere ability to take the mound in a 'game' will result in their usefulness to the Cardinals, yet, in most organizations-even the Royals- they would rather have these men take a long walk off a short pier than actually entrust them to try and win games. Or hearts of even the most ardent supporters. Flummoxing.

Hank Blalock is throwing well. He threw from third to first today, having recovered from last season's shoulder surgery:

"He was awesome," Washington said. "He had great carry and was very consistent. He's really learned how to use the bottom half of his body to help make his throws consistent. Everything was right there on the bag."

I sure the Rangers hope a healthy shoulder also helps Hank's hitting.

Why do players always do this?

Eric Gagne, identified as a user of human growth hormone in the Mitchell Report, apologized today to his new Milwaukee Brewers teammates for "a distraction that shouldn't be taking place."

Pettitte took his time apologizing for taking HGH, starting off with an apology for the embarrassment. Tell these people no one is embarrassed but them. No one is distracted but them. Apologize for what you did wrong.

Peter Abraham's take on the news conference is right on the money.

Andy Pettitte handled himself well in his press conference. He didn't duck any questions or hide behind his lawyers. He made a mistake and he admitted it. America loves giving second chances.

It's hard to buy his excuse, however. Using HGH to get back on the mound (as was his hope) is cheating. It's getting an edge on other players on the DL who are not using. It's getting an edge on the pitcher who took his place on the roster. Getting back in two weeks is getting an edge as opposed to three weeks.

This will blow over for Andy. The only thing that will keep him in the news on this issue is if the Clemens saga continues.

Update: Deadspin has a similar take to Abraham.

The Andy Pettitte news conference is just getting underway. Cashman and Girardi are sitting on either side of Pettitte. His attorneys are going to be available after the conference.

Update: Pettitte thanks the Yankees for giving him more time. He apologizes to the Yankees, Astros, their fans, baseball fans, and his own fans for the embarrassment. He's sorry for the mistakes he's made, but did it to get off the disabled list, not get an edge.

Update: He hates being between Clemens and McNamee, since both are friends. He's sorry he didn't tell the whole truth at the beginning, but was trying to protect his father.

Update: Jeter, Rivera and Posada are there in support. Andy says he hasn't talked to Roger Clemens.

Update: Pettitte is refusing to answer questions of the type, "Did you misremember what Clemens told you?"

Update: A reporter just asked Pettitte if he thought about not pitching. Andy said it crossed his mind. Pettitte said it wouldn't be honorable to do that.

Update: George Vescey asks about how Pettitte's religious beliefs weighed on the decision. Pettitte says in 2002 he felt it was the right thing to do. He says having this press conference will help him sleep at night.

Update: Pettitte is asked about breaking a ballplayer's code by talking. He says when you're put under oath you have no choice, and that sitting there in front of the committee was intimidating.

Update: Pettitte was just asked if he knew about the Mitchell report before he signed the contract. He had to be reminded of the dates of the contract and the report, then he says he did know, but he didn't feel he misled the Yankees.

Update: Andy is asked if he's a cheater. He doesn't think so because he didn't use it to get stronger. He understands, however, that people may think he's lying and they probably think he's a cheater.

Update: Peter Abraham asks if Andy ever used PEDs at any other time. Pettitte says no. Someone else asks if HGH helped him. Pettitte says no, he probably didn't use it long enough.

Update: They just asked Pettitte how he can concentrate on the season if Roger is indited and Andy is asked to testify. I'm always amazed at these questions. He's a professional athlete! He gets on the field and competes.

Andy says he hopes it doesn't come to that.

Update: I'd say so far the questions and answers haven't been too adversarial. Pettitte is keeping calm, and doing his best to answer the questions he can. If he doesn't understand a question, he asks the reporter to rephrase it.

He just asked why McNamee wouldn't be truthful. Andy says that as far as his use is concerned, McNamee was truthful.

Update: My Baseball Bias is also live blogging the conference.

Update: Andy is asked if the game is clean now, or what MLB should do to clean it up. He says after seeing what he's gone through, players are going to clean up quick.

Update: Pettitte says he hasn't heard from MLB, but he doesn't think he'll be suspended. Asked if he's ready for spring training, Pettitte says his arm is fine, but his legs aren't quite there yet.

Update: Andy says he's not worried about what people will think of his career in historical terms. He's very humble about his pitching. He says he's not a great pitcher, but he battles and plays for a great team.

Update: At the end of the conference, Andy's lawyer says the contract was signed a week before the Mitchell report came out. So it's not clear if he knew about the Mitchell report before he signed the contract.

Update: I thought that went well for Andy. There was no confrontational questions, and Andy tried to be as cooperative as possible. He wouldn't answer the one question most people wanted answered, what does he remember of his conversations about HGH with Roger Clemens. He appears to be getting a lot of support from his teammates and the owners. I'm guessing he'll be okay.

Don't challenge Tony Pena. Pena was hitting balls to the group of catchers to simulate wild pitches:

Jorge Posada, who has a great relationship with Pena, jumped in and challenged him to try and get one past him. Pena hit a sharp one-hopper that Posada caught with his bare hand and threw back at Pena.

Pena caught the ball and crushed a line drive at Posada, who wisely jumped out of the way.

As the drill broke up, I told Pena he was crazy.

"You just figuring that out now?" he said.

Someone should tell Tony Jorge has a long term contract.

Jaybird's Jottings notes an omission from the San Francisco Giants 50th anniversary celebration.

It's not clear that the injury to Gallardo is going to change the Brewers rotation much:

If Gallardo can indeed throw off a mound again a month from today-on 3/18-he might actually be able to get in a few Cactus League starts and be ready by mid-April. The Brewers don't need a 5th starter until 4/19 at Cincinnati, so a four man rotation of Sheets, Suppan, Villanueva, and Bush might suffice...provided all do well enough in Maryvale.

Dodger Thoughts seems to be just a tad worried about Tommy Lasorda managing the Dodgers for a week.

Ken Rosenthal examines why Dustin Pedrioa beat the projections of the Red Sox scouts.

Epstein marvels at the way Pedroia squares up pitches in batting practice, getting the barrel to the ball, hitting one line drive after another. It's difficult to imagine Pedroia improving much offensively over last season, but keep in mind that he was hitting only .172 on May 1 and played the final two months -- and the postseason -- with a cracked hamate bone in his left hand.

Yet, his hitting is only part of the package. Pedroia isn't fast, but Francona describes him as a "heads-up baserunner." He lacks range, Epstein says, "but his range plays above his quickness. He makes all the plays at the extremities of his range. A lot of guys will get to balls and can't make the play. He makes every play."

Dustin rated a little below average in range using PMR in 2007.

John Delcos reports that the Mets brass were all watching Duaner Sanchez throw today.

Jerome Solomon goes after Andy Pettitte for lying:

He is a performance-enhancing-drug-using pitcher who appears to be in search of a truth that will set him free. Even if that truth is a lie.

When asked about his performance-enhancing drug use, he elected to say something other than the truth on more than one occasion.

Despite knowing this, a congressman described Andy Pettitte as "honest and forthcoming." Another Washington time-waster praised Pettitte for being a role model on and off the field because of his "consistent honesty." His likely-to-be former friend Roger Clemens even called him "a very honest fellow."

For the first time since he lied about the subject the last time they asked, Mr. Honesty is expected to talk to the media about performance-enhancing drugs today when he reports to Yankees spring training.

Few of us can truthfully say we have never told a lie, so struggling with the truth doesn't make Pettitte a horrible human being. But raise your hand if you've managed to be praised for lying.

Maybe it's that people like Andy Pettitte, so they're willing to cut him some slack. Or maybe it's that Andy told the little lie (I only did it once) instead of the big lie (I didn't do it at all). I agree that describing Pettitte as an honest person just doesn't work that well any more.

Via FishStripes, Cody Ross overcame a hamstring injury with the help of injections:

Steadman asked Ross if he wanted to undergo a procedure. Basically, Ross had blood withdrawn from his arm. It was placed into what he calls a "high-tech machine" that cleans out the blood, leaving in the cells that help healing. The blood was then injected directly into Ross' hamstring. He received three or four of the injections.

He's better. I wonder if these with be called the Cody Ross Injections?

Chronicle of the Lads wonders how much Francisco Rodriguez should be paid.

How much should Frankie be paid, based on performance? We'll look at that another day. But the Angels have low-balled him thus far, at least relative to other recent closer contracts; this may be sound negotiating, and this may all resolve itself in the next few months, but based on what has reportedly been offered so far, I can understand why Rodriguez thinks he may be in a different uniform come 2009.

I agree. He does everything a closer is supposed to do. He posts incredible strikeout rates, good walk numbers and great home run numbers. He'll be 26 in 2008. He's very consistent. Unless the Angels have someone in the minors who can step into the role cheaply, Rivera money seems appropriate.

Andy Pettitte holds a news conference at 3 PM EST today. The media is already at the ballpark.

Joe Christensen meets Carlos Gomez and comes away impressed.

Bradford Files listened to Curt Schilling speak to the press this morning and has quotes:

"Let's be clear, if some people want to believe this was me taking advantage of the situation financially I wouldn't have done it here. I would have done it in at least two other places for $14 million. If I was going to sit my ass on the DL and collect a paycheck. I know that for a fact. People are going to believe what they believe. I was healthy at the time. I didn't feel great, but I felt like I was 40 or 41. I went through the physical, I had an MRI at the time as well. I did everything they asked, passed every test they asked me to take and I felt fine. If Theo tells you anything about our discussions and negotiations I think we were both very comfortable saying I want to go out, compete, be the ace of the staff for this final year and all the things that go with that."

Update: More from Schilling. The Globe wasn't invited to the party, but they saw the NESN tape:

"I'm obviously going to fall back on the guy (Morgan) who's already been down this path and who's always been right,'' Schilling said.

"....I immediately jumped on that when no one else was really offering me a difference, a change.''

It was at that point, he said, that the contract became an issue. "I think there was some belief on their end that I was going to go off and do my own thing and have surgery on my own,'' Schilling said, "or something like that. I immediately assured everybody that I was talking to I would never do that, No. 1, and No. 2, I couldn't do it legally, anyway.''

Schilling said he is following the Sox prescribed regimen "because I don't have any choice. If their course of action doesn't work I don't pitch this year, I might not ever pitch again.''

Schilling did not come right out and say the Sox doctors were wrong, but he called their judgment into question this way. "I think there's unspoken here that doctors have egos every bit as much as professional athletes. These are some of the top people in the world at what they do. I had three different doctors tell me three completely different things with three completely different courses of action. I'm obviously going to fall back on the guy who's already been down this path before.''

This from today's Sport Shorts:

The Red Sox, with Curt Schilling likely lost for the season, have secretly worked out a number of unsigned free-agent pitchers, including Debbie Clemens, who, according to sources, consistently topped 90 mph on the radar gun.

:-)

Patrick Cassidy finishes his series on what's wrong with the Cubs:

In the years since 1984 there has not been much evidence of a determined commitment to winning baseball on the part of the Cubs owner. And one has to wonder if that is not because the team is so profitable anyway.

The whole article is a good read, leading me to believe the Cubs are really the Momma bears; too small (in talent) instead of just right.

Nick Johnson received good reviews today:

Nick Johnson delighted onlookers, including the manager and GM, with a solid batting-practice session (Jim Bowden's assessment: "Phenomenal"), then said afterwards his leg feels great and he fully expects to be in the lineup when exhibition games begin at the end of the month. According to Bowden, the difference between seeing Johnson take BP today, versus seeing him last September (which was only a year after breaking his femur), was, "Night and day. Not even close."

Nick's a favorite of mine. Not only do I like his plate discipline, but he looks like Babe Ruth.

Anibal Sanchez is slowly turning into Carl Pavano:

Originally, the Marlins had hoped Sanchez might be ready to open the season with the club after undergoing labrum surgery last June. But the target date continues to be pushed back with every setback.

''They told me I have to wait for 10 days and start over again,'' Sanchez said of the latest recovery program. ``They said I had to start again because I felt pain when I was throwing at 90 feet.''

After receiving the diagnosis from Andrews last week, Sanchez said he returned home to Venezuela to visit his family.

''I just want to work to be ready,'' he said.

Randy Johnson threw for Bob Melvin today:

Melvin was more than a little impressed.

"He came out throwing bullets the first pitch he threw," the manager said. "As I've discussed before, the arm's not the issue here. I haven't talked to him since he finished, but I think he's probably pretty pleased with the way it went."

The possiblity of a Webb, Haren, Johnson, Owings and Davis rotation has to make Melvin a happy manager. He could end up holding four aces.

Yovani Gallardo torn cartilage in his knee:

Gallardo will return to Milwaukee on Monday and have the arthroscopic procedure Tuesday. He then will return to the Brewers' camp to begin physical therapy.

Brewers spokesman Tyler Barnes said Sunday the right-hander had discomfort a few days ago after a throwing session. His knee swelled up afterward.

In his first season in the majors, Gallardo repeated his minor league performance of lots of strikeouts, few walks and few home runs allowed. Doctors do well repairing knees since the introduction of arthroscopic surgery. I would guess, however, that he'll need an extended spring training.

Rich Harden threw in spring training, and Athletics Nation is excited:

So, from all accounts, Rich Harden IS at Spring Training, and actually appears to be throwing, something we haven't seen in a while. And not to put too fine a point on it, but he may be the only thing standing between the A's and the coveted 90 loss season. With an untried offense, and an as-of-yet undecided starting rotation, the A's look to Harden to make up some of the gaping off-season losses.

The offense may be okay. I'm guessing the A's do better than most people expect.

Update: Prior is also pain free.

Rays Index looks at how the fourth and fifth starters for the Tampa Bay Rays might be chosen.

One of the things to come out of the talk yesterday was that Troy Tulowitzki seemed to be covering for Garrett Atkins defensive woes. Tulowitzki produced 50 outs more than expected in 2007, while Atkins missed about 48 outs. You can see from their ground ball PMR graphs, that the difference happens in the hole:

Alan Schwarz, during the talk, wondered if this was more a reflection of strategy on the part of the Rockies as opposed a Garrett Atkins fielding deficiency. Apparently not.

Last spring, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had to take it. This year, as a rich, budding star, he's dishing it out.

Saturday, Tulo's target was third baseman Garrett Atkins.

"Atkins doesn't do much over there," Tulowitzki said with a sly grin. "He kind of just stands there and watches balls."

Tulowitzki was kidding, but there's a element of truth there. Note that the Rockies didn't lock up Atkins long term.

Hat tip, Purple Row.

Peter Abraham saw George Steinbrenner this morning:

Steinbrenner certainly looked better than he has in the past.

Maybe the lack of pressure due to his sons taking over the team is helping.

Gideon Gil attended the AAAS symposia yesterday and gave both SAFE and PMR a nice writeup.

It seems like the entire Phillies management, players and media were in on convincing Kyle Kendrick he was traded to Japan. Even Kyle's agent was in on the dececption.

George King notes the change in testing procedures for PEDs this season:

In other years, MLB would test a handful of players during spring training. Yesterday at Legends Field, 28 YankeesNew York Yankees were required to give urine samples to testers. Every pitcher and catcher on the 40-man roster was tested.

When the remaining 12 position players arrive this week they will be subjected to tests.

Update: There are new rules on packages as well.

In the past, clubhouse attendants would either deliver packages to players or just unpack them. Now the packages must be signed for, logged in and hand delivered. After a player opens one, a team official must then see the contents and sign off on them. If a package lacks a return address, a club executive must be notified.

Bill Plunkett looks at the competition between Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana to fill in for Kelvim Escobar. Saunders isn't happy with his yo-yo life:

Garland's acquisition puts Saunders on the bubble again. The left-hander has made 33 starts for the Angels over the past three seasons - going 15-8 with a 4.71 ERA in the equivalent of what would be a full season's work for a starting pitcher. But he has also spent each of those seasons bouncing on a string between the majors and Triple-A, sent back down each time his temp services were no longer needed.

"(Being) the odd man out - it kind of sucks," Saunders said. "It's not fun, I'll tell you that. I've been on a yo-yo for two years. It's never fun being in the big leagues and getting sent down. It's really tough. It's hard to explain the feeling you get when you're doing well and kind of get floored back down to Triple-A.

"It's like getting a promotion at your job. You get to be manager for a while, then they send you back to the mailroom."

Saunders looks like he gets great run support. That's a high ERA for a 15-8 record. In picking between Joe and Magic, Ervin gets the edge on strikeouts, although Saunders posted better FIP numbers the last two years. Saunders should probably get the nod, however, since he is more consistent. His home-road numbers are pretty even, while Santana pitches poorly away from Anaheim.

Since the series on predicting team runs per game using Marcel the Monkey projections is finished, I wanted to summarize the results. This table contains the runs per game for each team based on the likely starting lineup.

Team	Predicted Runs per Game
New York Yankees	5.89
Boston Red Sox	5.78
Cleveland Indians	5.60
Detroit Tigers	5.58
Tampa Bay Rays	5.45
Chicago White Sox	5.29
Texas Rangers	5.28
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	5.20
Atlanta Braves	5.18
Philadelphia Phillies	5.15
Oakland Athletics	5.14
Baltimore Orioles	5.12
Toronto Blue Jays	5.10
Colorado Rockies	5.10
New York Mets	4.98
Milwaukee Brewers	4.97
Chicago Cubs	4.92
Minnesota Twins	4.87
Seattle Mariners	4.87
Houston Astros	4.84
Los Angeles Dodgers	4.84
Kansas City Royals	4.82
St. Louis Cardinals	4.76
Florida Marlins	4.64
Cincinnati Reds	4.60
San Diego Padres	4.57
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.51
Pittsbugh Pirates	4.48
Washington Nationals	4.44
San Francisco Giants	3.99

At the end of the year, we'll revisit these numbers to see how well they worked.

Ray Ratto doesn't hold out much hope for the Giants, but he points out Bochy has the experience for this rebuilding:

"This isn't like if we were in the American League, where you have some teams that can go out and win the 10-9 game when their pitching isn't right," he said. "That's why we have the sense of optimism that this can happen in a year. You just see what Arizona did, and you realize that maybe we're not that far away."

Yeah, maybe. But probably not. Rebuilds are painful, especially ones that have been deferred as long as this one. The Giants are probably closer to what you think of them than what Bochy thinks of them, but as much as he was hired for a year like this, there is one other thing to consider.

He was also hired for the year after a year like this one. Bruce Bochy won't be the reason the Giants get better, when they do, or even if, and he doesn't pretend that he is. Bochy can, however, say that having done this before, he is as suited to easing the transition from Barry Bonds' backup band to a contender as any manager in baseball.

If the pitching turns out to be great, the Giants don't need to build a great offense to contend, just a pretty good one.

Peter Abraham watched Phil Hughes closely today:

The ball was almost never right over the plate, it was hard and down on the corners.

Jason Schmidt threw pain free today:

Schmidt spent extensive time last summer and during the offseason working with physical therapist Brett Fischer near his Scottsdale, Ariz., home.

"We've been throwing longer 'pens than that," Schmidt said. "He has done so many of these with me. There were points where I thought I was ready to go to the next level, he held me back at times I wanted to push forward. If I would have done that, I probably would have had the big setback."

A healthy Schimdt would be a great improvement over the Dodgers third starting slot last year, so this is an encouraging sign.

It looks like the Marlins are going to get a new stadium:

The deal calls for the county and city to contribute $360 million mainly in tourist taxes and a $50 million general obligation bond Miami-Dade voters approved in 2004 to renovate the Orange Bowl, but which will instead be moved to the ballpark project.The Marlins are to contribute $155 million.

The Marlins have been trying for years to finance a new ballpark, but numerous deals were derailed when the state Legislature failed to help pay for the project. The new agreement does not count on state dollars and officials have said they have never been closer to building a 37,000-seat retractable roof ballpark.

I love the comment on this article at BBTF:

To keep with recent tradition, the new stadium will be built with 37,000 empty seats.

I participated in an AAAS symposia today on New Techniques in the Evaluation and Prediction of Baseball Performance. Thanks to Ed Aboufadel of Grand Valley State University for the invitation. Shane Jensen presented his SAFE system, a more sophisticated version of the Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR). Steve Wang showed new ways of visualizing data, concentrating on managers. Both were very interesting, and Alan Schwarz kept us on our toes as the moderator.

I talked about the Probabilistic Model of Range, and you can view the slide show here. One nice thing at this conference was a press conference after the talk. I've never done one of those before, and I must say the science writers asked very good questions. This was an unusual topic for this meeting but it went over well.

Update: AP covered the talk.

Update: Some browsers can't run the slide show. It works with IE. For those who can't you can download the actual power point presentation.

Download PowerPoint 2007 version. Unfortunately, the charts I used aren't compatible with PowerPoint 2003.

Also, word that Jeter is at the bottom of the list of shortstops doesn't play well with Yankees fans.

The Marlins are one of the few baseball teams to employee cheerleaders, but at least they understood the concept. Now they're sending the pep squad in the same direction as their won-lost record.

The Reds made Brandon Phillips a rich man as they avoid arbitration by signing him to a four-year contract with an option for a fifth season. He'll make $27 million over the first four years:

The 26-year-old infielder had a breakout season last year, when he joined Alfonso Soriano as the only second basemen in major league history to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases.

Agents Sam and Seth Levinson negotiated the deal for Phillips, who wants to stay with the team that gave him a second chance by getting him from Cleveland in a trade. Phillips had asked for $4.2 million in arbitration, and the Reds had offered $2.7 million.

Phillips over his career isn't a great offensive player, but he led second basemen in PMR in 2007. His level of offense for a great defensive second baseman is just fine.

Jeremy Brown retired from baseball:

Catcher Jeremy Brown, one of the central subjects in the book "Moneyball" that chronicled Billy Beane's unconventional methods as Oakland general manager, told the Athletics he's calling it a career.

The A's said Friday that Brown would not report to spring training after telling them Tuesday he planned to retire for personal reasons. In response, they agreed to terms with free agent catcher Matt LeCroy on a minor league deal to help fill the void of Brown's departure. He was due to arrive at spring training Saturday.

It's too bad he never made it as a major leaguer. His was a great story. He did post a .370 OBA in the minor leagues, so Beane's was right about Brown's ability to get on base.

The Mariners and Erik Bedard settled without arbitration, splitting the difference with a $7 million contract.

The two sides are believed to have already started negotiations on a long-term deal. General manager Bill Bavasi, who still has not had a contract go to arbitration since he joined the Mariners in 2004, indicated last week that the team was exploring a multiyear extension for the left-handed ace.

Given the amount of talent the Mariners traded for Bedard, the pitcher needs to be more than a two-year rental.

There have been four arbitration decisions so far, and the owners won all of them. I wasn't that surprised by the Valverde decision. There was a large gap between the two sides, Jose's had a bit of an up and down career. I thought Wang might win, because the two sides are close and you can point to certain pitching skills that Wang does extremely well (keeping the ball in the park). I'm still waiting to see what happens with Ryan Howard. I get the feeling the Phillies offered too little.

The Phillies are giving in to Cole Hamels:

Perhaps responding to Cole Hamels' public pleas last season, the club is making arrangements for its players to have access to chiropractors both at home and on the road.

Though plans have not been finalized, Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro confirmed that the team is looking to hire a chiropractor to work with players at home. In addition, it is attempting to set up a network of chiropractors for players to use on the road.

Maybe the Phillies should stick to real medicine. Watch this video, the relevant section starting at the six minute mark.

Carl Pavano can't catch a break.

Tom Tango looks at the reasons for the increase in home runs from 1993 on, and comes down on the ball. It's important to know that the ball is not technically juiced, but is manufactured at the high end of the allowable range. My theory (which I could never get ESPN to pursue) was that there was a change in manufacturing practices that produced a more consistent ball. That consistency was set at the high end.

My guess is that under older manufacturing techniques, hundreds of thousands of balls were manufactured before they were tested. I'm guessing as time went on, these balls became looser, and overall the balls tended to fall in the mid range of the specification. With the introduction of control charts into US manufacturing in the late 1980s, however, testing is done every 100 balls or so, and the second they get a little out of whack, the process is corrected. I talked to the manufacturer in 1993, and they told me at that time they were producing the most consistent ball ever. What they needed to do, however, was produce the mid-range ball, not the high range ball.

Spring Training is upon us and Spring Training '08 is there to keep you up to date on all 30 teams. Brian Ward put the site together and recruited bloggers to cover every organization. He's looking for fan contributions as well. Stop by and say hi.

On Saturday morning I'll make a presentation at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) meeting on the Probabilistic Model of Range. The symposia is called New Techniques in the Evaluation and Prediction of Baseball Performance and meets in the Hynes Convention Center, Second Level, Room 202 at 8:30 AM. Alan Schwarz and Shane Jensen will also present.

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at how Curt Schilling's injury effects the Red Sox rotation.

Prosecutors responded to Bonds's call to dismiss charges against him by making public a failed drug test:

U.S. baseball home run king Barry Bonds tested positive for steroids in November 2001, just a month after hitting his record 73rd home run of the season, U.S. prosecutors said Thursday.

The allegation came in a legal filing in his steroid perjury case that referred to Bonds' long-time trainer, Greg Anderson.

My question is, who tested him? Was this Major League Baseball on a probable cause test, or was this BALCO?

Update: As noted overnight in the comments, the prosecutors made a mistake:

U.S. attorney spokesman Josh Eaton now says that the reference in Thursday's government court filing regarding Bonds testing positive was actually referring to a November 2000 test that was previously disclosed in the indictment of Bonds and had already been reported.

That drug test was included in the indictment unsealed last year, when prosecutors said the test was for a player they called "Barry B."

I bet Bonds's lawyers will have a field day with this.

Via Deadspin, Ray King lost 23 pounds!

He said instead of going to In-N-Out Burger, King ate salmon instead.

That's appropriate, as the Nationals will be swimming upstream this year.

Pedro Martinez talks about how he dominated the steroid era clean, and his own health:

Martinez said he feels better than he has in almost a decade -- before his right shoulder gave him any problems at all. But he's not sure he'll be able to make 30-plus starts this season.

"Nobody's guaranteed to do that," he said.

Pedro is another pitcher who benefitted from time off on the disabled list during the season when he was with the Red Sox.

Here's another reason not to drive under the influence:

Liriano, arrested in Florida in 2006 on charges of speeding and drunken driving, said that tests required by a U.S. consulate in the Dominican Republic will delay his arrival for at least next week.

"They asked me to take a sobriety test, because of my situation with the DUI, since apparently there is a new law calling for that," the 24-year-old Liriano told The Associated Press on Thursday. He said he was informed that he also needs to attend a counseling session.

River Ave. Blues looks at changing fan feelings toward George Steinbrenner:

When I, on Monday, wrote about George's buying the Yankees, I got the sense that the older Yankee fans have long passed judgment on George. He was a two-faced liar who would backstab fellow front office employees and his dugout and on-field personnel. He would do whatever it took to win and eventually wound up in trouble with the baseball law. In fact, I was at the game on July 30, 1990 when George was suspended, and the Yankee fans sitting around me applauded.

But a funny thing happened on the way to 2008. New Yorkers started adopting King George's maniacally bent on winning, and the Yankees on the field became victorious once more. Following Steinbrenner's reinstatement in 1993, the Yankees entered a period of prosperity largely unmatched in franchise history. They've finished first or second every season since 1993 and have won four World Series titles and six AL championships since then.

In the eyes of the public, George became a hero.

I was a Yankees fan growing up, but had no problem transitioning to a baseball fan because of how poorly Steinbrenner ran the team during the 1980s. It should be noted that the two championship eras under were due to team building while he was suspended. By the time he came back from the second suspension, I believe he mellowed a bit. He was still driving the team to win, but was a bit more willing to listen to his baseball people.

Peter Abraham posts audio from Joba Chamberlain. At about 5:30 there's a good question and a great answer (my transcription):

PA: Do you call yourself a starter, do you call yourself a reliever, what do you think?

JC: I call myself a pitcher. That's it. You know, it doesn't matter what you're doing.

That's the way all pitchers should think.

There's speculation that Albert Pujols needs Tommy John surgery. I agree with Brew Crew Ball on this:

In years past, this would have been cause for some serious schadenfreude, but with the Cardinals unlikely to challenge for the NL Central title this year (Chris Carpenter isn't due back from his TJ surgery until after the All-Star Break), an extended Pujols absence would help the Cubs just as much as it would help the Brewers.

Of course, if Pujols does have the surgery, he might pitch until he's 46. :-)

McNamee's lawyer makes a pre-emptive strike at denying Clemens a pardon:

One of Brian McNamee's lawyers predicted Roger Clemens will be pardoned by President Bush, saying some Republicans treated his client harshly because of the pitcher's friendship with the Bush family.

Lawyer Richard Emery made the claims Thursday, a day after a congressional hearing broke down along party lines. Many Democrats were skeptical of Clemens' denials he used performance-enhancing drugs and Republicans questioned the character of McNamee, the personal trainer who made the accusations against the seven-time Cy Young Award winner.

This won't happen. First of all, by the time anyone got around to indicting and trying Clemens, Bush will be out of office. I suppose he could pull a Ford and pardon Clemens before the fact, but somehow I don't think it will happen. The chances of convicting Clemens for perjury given the McNamee as a witness are slim and none.

The Rays return for three more games at Disney World this year. So far, they are undefeated in the Magic Kingdom.

A look back at the Black Sox scandal from the pages of the New York Times.

Phil Hughes is taking questions for Ian Kennedy.

Update: Ian answers the questions here. I'd really like to see more about baseball, although I suppose someone could start a fantasy league around which baseball players are best at HALO.

I had not heard of the Vulcan changeup before, but maybe it will be the pitch that allows Kennedy to live long and prosper.

Aramis Ramirez joins Pedro Martinez on the list of major league cock fighters. I can just see the two in a confrontation at the plate yelling, "My cock is better than your cock!" at each other. :-)

Josh Beckett shows off his abs on Valentine's day.

Dugout Central lists the top ten pitchers for your fantasy team.

C.C. Sabathia broke off contract extension talks with the Cleveland Indians:

The left-hander, who is eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, says on his Web site that he and his agents have broken off negotiations on an extension with the club. The Indians have recently offered Sabathia a four-year extension believed to be worth $17 million to $18 million per season.

I'm guessing he'll be worth a lot more than that on the open market. Here's the full statement. He still wants to stay with the Indians:

There will be time after the season for the Indians and my representatives to discuss my contract status. I remain hopeful that these discussions will result in a contract extension that will keep me with the franchise for many years to come. In the meantime, in order to avoid any distractions, my representatives and I will not make any further comment about my contractual situation beyond this statement.

Josh Beckett points out the reason for his success in 2007:

And now Beckett, who started his throwing program Jan. 3, admits that the playoff run most likely wouldn't have been possible if not for a 16-day stretch between starts in May due to a skin avulsion on his right middle finger. It was a lesson both Beckett, and the Red Sox, are taking into this season in regards to staying fresh for the stretch run.

"I think that really helped me," said Beckett of the hiatus. "If it's looking like we're going to get to the playoffs and possibly being in the same situation we were last year, yeah, I would be open to talking to them (about taking extra time off). Obviously, I would want it to be on my terms because I wouldn't want to be feeling good and then have them say, 'OK, it's time for your time off.' There are certain times of the year where your shoulder might be barking a little bit that might be a good time (for a rest). I would want it to be on my terms and I don't think (the team) would ever do it without consulting.

I remember Bruce Hurst being strong down the stretch in 1986 because he injured his hamstring and was forced on the DL. Hurst had shown a pattern of wearing down in previous seasons that didn't happen that year. I'm all for this. Give a pitcher two weeks off in the middle of the year if you think it will make him hold up better in September and October.

This is the second poll I've seen in which readers are asked a binary choice between Clemens and McNamee as to who is telling the truth. I'd like to look at it from a different perspective:

Do you believe Clemens?

What is the probability that Roger Clemens is telling the truth?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

View Resulttherapesites.com

Free Web Polls

I didn't realize Jim Leyritz was carrying a passenger the night of his fatal accident:

The passenger, Bruce Barger, 20, of West Chester, Pa., told police he saw Leyritz reach down as if he were fiddling with the radio or had dropped something right before the crash.

'I had looked up and saw that the light was turning, was turning red and I go . . . `Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa,' you know, said something like that and he went through it and then hit the car,'' Barger told Fort Lauderdale traffic homicide investigator Jill Hirsch.

He told Hirsch that Leyritz seemed composed and was not swerving before the crash.

Reached by phone Wednesday afternoon, Barger declined to comment. According to the court documents, Barger was visiting relatives who knew Leyritz's friends who were out together on the night of the crash.

After the accident, Barger, who said he had been drinking that night, walked to a nearby gas station where he called his brother to pick him up. He was interviewed by police by phone on Jan. 23, and told them he left the scene because he did not realize the severity of the crash and he had a plane to catch in the morning.

Barger's blood alcohol level was even higher than Leyritz's.

Rich Harden vents about the Athletics pushing him to pitch through pain:

"The whole year, I had people in the organization telling me I'm fine, that I have to pitch with pain," he said, repeatedly declining to say who those people were. "I had people telling me that, and it's insulting. That's the frustrating thing. There's been some stuff that's been going on."

Then his voice trailed off, and he said, "I probably shouldn't say anything else."

But he did.

"Every (injury) I've had, I've stayed out there," he said. "I will not pull myself or take myself out, and that's what hurt me in the past. I've tried to pitch through stuff and that's where these injuries have happened, and that's why I've spent more time on the DL.

"Without a doubt, 100 percent, that's what happened, and that's something that's frustrated me, because you get people in the organization questioning your ability to pitch with pain and they have no clue who I am or what I'm about. I don't like that. That's one thing that does frustrate me, when it's people in the organization who question me. When it's coming from our organization, that definitely fires me up."

Beane denies that. The good news for the A's is that Harden feels fine and expects to pitch the whole season. If that's true, they've basically replaced Haren.

WebMD saved Shelly Duncan.

(Hat tip, LoHud Yankees blog.)

CHONE projections put the Tampa Bay Rays in contention in the AL East this season. I was thinking they might reach .500 in 2008 then break out next season.

Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.

Ryan Dempster thinks the Cubs will win the World Series and he'll pitch 200 innings. You have four to go, Ryan.

I agree with Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke. Neal Huntington says all the right things in this story.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

The LoHud Yankees Blog links to all the depositions related to the Clemens hearings today.

Update: J.C. Bradbury reads Pettitte's deposition and wishes Andy had appeared before the committee today to clarify things.

The Mariners named Erik Bedard their opening day starter.

Cardinals Diaspora makes fun of Clemens for using "misremembered." Turns out, it's in the dictionary. I guess the writer there just doesn't like Texans.

Hideki Okajima worked on some new pitches during the off-season. He's also going to try to do a better job of pacing himself in 2008:

He also added that he's going to try throwing fewer pitches outside of game situations so he can try to remain healthy throughout the whole season. He was shut down in September last year after he became fatigued, something also experienced by countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Lookout Landing isn't excited about pitchers and catchers reporting. I agree I'd rather have games, but at least we'll start seeing more news about baseball.

Nationals Journal at the Washington Post is taking a poll on your reactions to the hearings. So far, Clemens isn't doing very well.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

The show will include a taped interview in which Sal Baxamusa and I discuss our current research and talk about the Bedard trade. Thanks to Dave Laurila. for conducting the interview and providing me with the recording.

Not much changed since halftime. Roger Cossack on ESPN believes the federal government will investigate Clemens for perjury. However, Cossack doesn't believe there's not enough evidence to ever convict Roger.

So it's up to you to make up your own mind. I'm wondering how much Pettitte's testimony weighs in your thoughts. It clearly pushed Rep. Cummings over the edge.

Tom Davis wins the coin flip and starts the afternoon questioning.

Update: Davis is being much nicer to Clemens about the nanny. He's giving Clemens credit for finding her and a chance to explain what went on.

Update: The other Rep. Davis (the Democrat) asks Scheeler if Clemens meeting with the nanny was usual. Scheeler says no, it's done by a lawyer or a lawyer's investigator.

Update: Clemens says he never heard that Mitchell wanted to talk to him. (His agents didn't tell him.) Roger also gives plenty of examples of how easy he is to find.

Update: Waxman points out that Roger's investigators told him before the Mitchell report came out that Roger would be part of it.

Update: Rep. Braley is asking Clemens if he has any symptoms of needing B-12. Roger says no, and when asked if he's a vegan, says he doesn't know what that is.

Update: Braley asks Clemens why he would trust McNamee to do medical procedures like B-12 and lidocaine injections.

Update: I hate it when the reps give speeches rather than asking questions.

Update: Rep. Westmoreland thinks this is a show trial. They shouldn't be concerned with individuals, but the drug policy.

Update: Scheeler is asked about McNamee's questioning. Scheeler says the account of the interview in Roger's defamation suit is in correct. Scheeler says Mitchell asked the questions.

Update: Souder asked a New Yorker if "It is what it is" is a New York expression for telling the truth. The person told him it was.

Update: Clemens just read a statement by his wife. She said McNamee recommended HGH to her, and Roger didn't know she took it until afterward.

Update: Elijah Cummings is saying Pettitte's affidavit swings his opinion to believing McNamee.

Update: Bradford Files reports from the Red Sox clubhouse:

While it continues to rain outside, a group of players are hunkered down in the trainer's room watching the Roger Clemens hearing. Eveyone who walks out are just shaking their heads, relaying how it is not going well for Clemens.

It's over, thank goodness.

Update: Waxman is apologizing to McNamee for some of then comments directed at him. The chairman clearly believes McNamee and not Clemens.

I still don't know what to think about who is more truthful, Clemens or McNamee. Clearly, McNamee memory of specific dates is off, and he's admitted to lying in the past. Clemens has inconsistencies as well, especially in regards to saying he never talked about HGH with Brian, but did after Brian injected Debbie. Pettitte's deposition might be the deciding factor.

Waxman is clearly out to get Clemens. The whole nanny story he told was intended to make Clemens look like he was tampering with a witness. The butt MRI was pretty dramatic as well, getting a doctor to say B-12 wouldn't cause that. More when they resume.

I just got the power back on, it looks like I missed most of Waxman's opening statement. I did hear him read Pettitte's statement, and the statement of Pettitte's wife about the conversations with Clemens about HGH.

The yellow flower held by Mrs. Clemens is a nice touch. She appears to be playing the Maureen Dean role today.

Update: Pettitte used HGH one other time, stealing the dose from his father.

Update: Clemens is starting his statement with condolences over Rep. Lantos.

Update: Clemens says he's guilty of being too trusting of everyone. Clemens is pointing out no matter what he did, stay silent or strongly protest, people took that as a sign of guilt.

Update: Roger just stated categorically that he never took steroids or HGH.

Update: McNamee is up, and he opens with a statement that he injected Clemens with steroids and HGH, and inject Pettitte and Knoblauch with HGH. He's also expressing contrition.

Update: McNamee points out that his stories about Pettitte and Knoblauch were confirmed, and he's also telling the truth about Clemens.

Update: McNamee now says he injected Clemens more often than he reported to Mitchell.

Update: Alan Schwarz is in the committee room and filing report.

Update: It's about the children! No, it's about Roger Clemens!

Update: Rep. Cummings is questioning Clemens now.

Update: Cummings is telling Clemens how difficult it was for Pettitte to testify against Roger.

Update: Clemens said Pettitte misheard about Clemens using HGH. Clemens said he had a conversation with Pettitte about a TV show in which older men got back their quality of life by using HGH.

Update: Rep. Cummings is trying a trick. He keeps trying to get Clemens to say that he thinks Andy is telling the truth. Clemens won't fall for the direct answer and keeps saying that Pettitte misheard or misunderstood.

Update: Now they're getting to Debbie.

Update: Clemens doesn't remember the conversation with Pettitte about Debbie Clemens using HGH. Cummings wanted Clemens to be clear; did he not remember or did it never happen. Clemens says he does not remember.

Update: Cummings gets Clemens on the timeline. The original Pettitte-Clemens conversation was in 1999 or 2000. Clemens said his wife didn't use HGH until 2003, so when Clemens told Pettitte in 2005 that he was talking about Debbie in the first conversation, that doesn't jibe with what Clemens admitted.

Update: Rep. Davis is now questioning McNamee. He wants to know why the number of injections keep going up. He said he didn't keep records, but thinking about it the last two months, he remembered more and more.

Update: Davis asks McNamee why he never said, "I am telling the truth," during the taped phone conversation. McNamee claims when he said, "It is what it is," that's his jargon for I'm telling the truth.

Update: Davis is now asking Clemens about Mike Stanton noticing Roger Clemens bleeding through his pants. Roger says it didn't happen. McNamee says Roger told him it happened.

Update: Davis is getting to the Canseco barbecue. He's pointing out that McNamee's story does not match the evidence they've gathered.

Update: McNamee recalls seeing Clemens nanny at the party picking up one of Clemen's children as he headed for the pool, and Clemens showing up later.

Update: Clemens is asked how B-12 helps him.

Update: Roger said McNamee injected him five times with B-12, McNamee says he never injected Roger with B-12.

Update: Rep. Tierney notes in the past McNamee lied to investigators, both in Florida and to Federal investigators. He's now pointing out Clemens's credibility issues as well.

Update: Tierney is now reading Clemens's account of Debbie's injections. He wants to know why Clemens said he never had a conversation with McNamee about HGH when he did have a conversation about it over Clemens's wife.

Update: Dan Burton is asking Clemens why he thinks McNamee was coerced into lying about Clemens.

Update: Burton is pointing out all the lies that McNamee told over the years to newspapers.

Update: Burton just said he doesn't believe McNamee, and he doesn't like this trial by media.

Update: Rep. Lynch is talking about the abscess on Clemens's buttocks. The Blue Jays did have records of masses on the buttocks.

Update: They have an MRI of the mass, and the report says the mass was likely caused by an injection.

Update: A doctor says the MRI is more consistent with winstrol than B-12.

Update: The doctors and trainers for the Blue Jays at the time said they never said they had seen a reaction like that from B-12.

Update: Rep. Davis notes that Dr. Grossman, who examined Clemens at the time of the MRI, came to a different conclusion.

Update: Davis is pointing out that we know Clemens received a B-12 shot before the injury, but McNamee's recollection of when he gave Roger winstrol doesn't match the time period.

Update: For some reason, the Democrats on the committee seem to be going after Clemens, and the Republicans are going after McNamee. I have no idea why this would break down along party lines.

Update: Scheeler is being grilled about the Canseco party. Does he still believe the meeting occured? He won't give a definite answer.

Update: I would like someone to ask Scheeler why he thinks McNamee is truthful.

Update: Rep. Souder wanted the other witnesses here. He says the released depositions will be devastating.

Update: Souder is also discussing allegations that the owners didn't want testing and they should be investigated.

Update: Souder is noting that McNamee's slow release of information is usually what happens in drug cases. The criminal initially gives up just enough to stay out of jail, then something tics them off and more comes out.

Update: Waxman is now talking about the nanny. She said they her, Debbie and the children stayed over night at Canseco's house, and Clemens was there for some period of time.

Waxman now says that Clemens talked to her on Sunday, before the committee, after the committee had asked Clemens's lawyers not to contact her.

Update: Clemens's lawyers are objecting to Waxman's innuendo. Waxman says Clemens's actions in this regard are inappropriate.

Update: There's going to be a 15 minute break. I'll pick this up again in a new post.

Jay Jaffe is commenting on the Clemens hearing at FoxRadio.

Ten months after Tommy John surgery, B.J. Ryan is throwing off a mound, and may be ready for opening day.

Ryan has surprised some observers and confounded the experts. He has thrown his two bullpen sessions with no physical problems and is slated to throw next from the mound Saturday, the first official day for pitchers and catchers. The 32-year-old is three months away from reaching one year post-surgery, the accepted rehab period for pitchers who have undergone the same tendon transfer procedure.

...

Of all the question marks on the Jays coming into camp, Ryan's ability to be ready for opening day has the most repercussions. If he proves he can pitch like he has in the past, then Jeremy Accardo can be moved back to a setup role and the spring can be spent allowing Casey Janssen to compete for a starting spot. If Ryan is not ready, Janssen would have to remain in the 'pen, with Jesse Litsch the leading candidate for the fifth spot.

Matt Treanor and Kevin Gregg discuss problems in the Marlins clubhouse during 2007.

''It's the understanding of the seriousness of what we're doing here. They're having a good time, and that's what we want to do, but there's a fine line that has to be drawn, and sometimes, we went under that line of where we needed to be -- before, during and after games,'' said Gregg, who obviously won't publicly identify line-crossers.

Gregg said Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera -- both now with Detroit -- were cast in a role ''where they were looked up to'' and they ``handled some things differently than I would have handled them. Being a first-year guy, I wasn't in a spot to say some things that probably should have been said.''

Treanor was more blunt: ''If you can't handle your business, I don't think you should be joking and laughing,'' he said. ``If you give a half-hearted effort because you'd rather be joking around in the clubhouse or worried what's going on after or before the game, you're not here doing your job. Maybe this year, I'm going to assume more of a leadership role . . . if I see stuff like that. This year, our clubhouse is going to be about business.

Funny, the 2007 team was a year older than the 2006 team that actually competed for the wild card. Maybe firing Girardi wasn't such a good idea.

Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus fame decided it was time for him to blog about the Kansas City franchise at Rany on the Royals. His first post is here. Stop by and say hi.

Andy Pettitte's affidavit leaked to the press:

Pettitte said in the affidavit that he asked Clemens in 2005 what he would do if asked by the media about HGH, given his admission years earlier. According to the account told to the AP, the affidavit said Clemens responded by saying Pettitte misunderstood the previous exchange in 1999 or 2000 and that, in fact, Clemens had been talking about HGH use by his wife in the original conversation.

So maybe McNamee's story about Mrs. Clemens was correct. There's also more bad news for Roger:

Clemens will also be asked about corroborating information that committee staff members developed on their own that ties Clemens to such drugs, the lawyers said. That information, they said, stands separate and apart from the assertions made about Clemens by his former personal trainer, Brian McNamee, who contends that he injected Clemens with steroids and human growth hormone from 1998 to 2001.

I like this answer by Joe Girardi:

C- How much did you follow how Tom Coughlin, at the age of 61, needed to change his approach as the Giants' coach and ended up winning a Super Bowl?

G- "Someone asked me what type of manager I would be. I said I'm a manager that's willing to adapt to the people that are around me and the type of players you have. You can't necessarily have a regimented way that you play because the parts may not fit the picture. So you have to adapt your managerial style to the parts that you have."
"I think one of the jobs of a manager is make sure it's an enjoyable place to work every day, even during the bad times. You have to find a way to make it enjoyable. Sometimes, you got to do things a little different. Sometimes, you got to be a little off the wall, as off the wall as I can be."

Finally, a reality show for me!

From Canseco's affidavit:

"I have never had a conversation with Clemens in which he expressed any interest in using steroids or human growth hormone," Canseco said in the affidavit. "Clemens has never asked me to give steroids or human growth hormone, and I have never seen Clemens "use, possess or ask for steroids or human growth hormone."

From Juiced:

"It was the pitchers who really kept that 'B12' joke going. For example, I've never seen Roger Clemens do steroids, and he never told me that he did. But we've talked about what steroids could do for you, in which combinations, and I've heard him use the phrase 'B12 shot' in respect to others."

So I guess that conversation was just informational.

Upper Deck writes:

On behalf of Upper Deck, we are thrilled to announce the "Presidential Predictor" card set in the 2008 Series One Baseball release. The illustrated parodies show several of the top candidates in rare form by tying each one of them to a pivotal moment or personality from baseball's rich history.

The candidates' cards, inserted at a rate of 1:8 packs in Upper Deck's 2008 Series One Baseball release, are hitting store shelves now!

Notable names in the "Presidential Predictor" set include, from the Democratic side, Barack Obama and John Edwards; and from the Republicans: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. A few other surprise candidates and political personalities are also showcased in the collection including Al Gore being tagged out by reigning U.S. President George W. Bush in a funny portrayal of Yankee second baseman Chuck Knoblauch's phantom tag of Boston's Jose Offerman during the '99 American League Championship Series.

Collectors who pull any of the Presidential Predictor cards from packs will have the opportunity to win a trip for two to throw out the "presidential" first pitch at an official Major League Baseball game during the 2009 season. They simply need to type in the static code(s) found on the backs of the cards at www.presidentialpredictor.com to gain entry into an Upper Deck Baseball sweepstakes. The top prize will be open to all collectors who register the winning candidate's trading card. Each of the cards can be viewed at the www.presidentialpredictor.com website.

I like the Fred Thompson card.

Here's a positive review of the Mets acquistion of Tony Armas, Jr.

It appears the original reason Pettitte won't appear before Congress was wrong:

Sources told Quinn that Pettitte was not a good witness when he appeared before congressional lawyers during a sworn deposition on Monday. Pettitte often contradicted himself, the sources said, so the committee agreed to his request not to appear Wednesday.

Lawyers familiar with the hearings would not say if Pettitte implicated Clemens as a steroids user in his testimony. However, they said that Pettitte's testimony didn't fully jibe with Clemens' versions of events.

So maybe there's less here than meets the eye.

Sal Baxamusa at The Hardball Times shows how hot and cold streaks can move projections.

This story has been kicking around for a while, but Joel Sherman confirmed that Joba Chamberlain will start the season in the bullpen for the Yankees:

The Yanks see the Chamberlain/Rivera tandem helping them be a dominant late-inning team over the first two months of the season. At some point in June, the Yanks would send Chamberlain to the minors for 3-4 weeks to stretch him out to 5-6 innings in preparation to be a full-time starter in the second half.

This seems to be meeting with cautious approval by a couple of Yankees bloggers.

• My Baseball Bias: "I'm personally sleeping better than I did last season at this time."
• River Ave. Blues: This does seem like the ideal plan. Let's hope it shakes out that way.

WasWatching, however, thinks Joba stays in the pen all year.

I'm not crazy about the part where Chamberlain goes to the minors. The Yankees are holding Joba to 140 innings in 2008, and they're going to waste some of them on minor league hitters? Secondly, what happens when it becomes apparent in May that Mike Mussina can't pitch any more? I'd actually rather see the Yankees settle the setup role in spring training, make Joba the fifth starter and put him on the DL three times during the season. That way, he can make 23 six inning starts. As the fifth starter, the Yankees could even skip his turn when an off day makes that possible. I just hate to see the team waste good innings in the minor leagues.

Update: Peter Abraham can't get Cashman to confirm this.

The Mets are reconfiguring their facility in Port St. Lucie to conform to the dimensions of the new Citi Field.

Doctors tell Congress HGH doesn't help.

This is taking love of Joe McEwing just a bit too far. :-)

Joe Posnanski writes an entertaining and serious piece about tomorrow's congressional hearings:

I will admit, with a slightly red-face, that at first I was semi-looking forward to this Roger Clemens-Brian McNamee slimedown. I was looking forward to it in that same guilty-pleasure way that I always looked forward to those Monday Night Football sideline reports from Eric Dickerson*. I'm not proud of myself. But, hey, I couldn't help it. I mean here you have two guys -- one threw a bat at Mike Piazza and later started cutting billion dollar deals which allowed him to be a part-time baseball player from his living room, the other was a one-time cop who left the force so he could hang around ballplayers and, if applicable, shoot them up with steroids and HGH. It looked like it would be a very entertaining event, sort of a Wimbledon final between Ann Coulter and Geraldo.

I, for one, am not looking forward to this. It's just going to be a painful day.

Emma Span brings you the name of the week, Cody Ransom!

Craig Hansen can finally get a good night's sleep. He underwent surgery to correct his sleep apnea:

Hansen admits to falling asleep during team meetings, a problem that finally led to the Red Sox front office confronting him during January, 2007 at the Rookie Development Program. The difference now, he said, is remarkable. Besides not snoring at legendary levels, actually not snoring at all, the reliever feels dramatically different upon waking up each morning, which he is hoping translates to results on the field.

Buchholz bulked up and Hansen is sleeping well. That should help in replacing the innings lost to Shilling's bum shoulder.

Seth Mnookin tells us why he believes John Rocker:

I also believe him because if the whole steroids mess has shown us anything, it's that the least likely folks have ended up being the most honest. That's in large part because of the frat house/high school locker room mentality of the entire baseball world, where the omerta code is lots stronger than it is in today's mob...and guys like Jose and JR have already been kicked out of the club, so they have nothing to lose.

It looks like the Marlins are getting close to a stadium deal. Too late to keep the superstar around, however.

The Twins found a replacement for Johan Santana, Livan Hernandez:

Hernandez, who turns 33 on Feb. 20, will be the sole veteran in a rotation that likely will include no pitcher who is older than 26.

The Twins evidently value Hernandez's durability. Hernandez leads the majors in innings pitched since 2003, and has exceeded 200 innings in every season since 2000.

Only three major-league pitchers have made 30 or more starts in each of the past 10 seasons -- Hernandez, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

However, Hernandez has spent his entire 12-year career in the National League, and some scouts and executives believe he is ill-suited to pitch in the more offensively oriented AL.

Hernandez gives up a lot of hits, something he's done throughout his career. He allows a lower than average percentage of ground balls and a higher than average percentage of line drives. In his three best seasons in recent memory, 2003-2005, Hernandez was very good with runners in scoring position. As a team, I wouldn't want to depend on that.

Most likely, Livan is in Minnesota to eat inning cheaply until the next set of young studs are ready.

U.S.S. Mariner keeps running simulations of the 2008 season to see how Seattle will fare. Impressively, the Oakland Athletics are the most successful franchise in the West. I was surprised at how well the offense did in the lineup analysis using Marcels. ZiPS is giving them the chance to win overall. This may turn out to be Billy Beane's greatest moment.

Hat tip, BBTF.

Dan Fox writes a thoughtful piece on using statistics to identify potential PED users. It's in response to this article by Alan Schwarz.

What I find interesting is that Dan's method would have flagged Carlton Fisk for increased scrutiny. Fisk's late career surge took place from 1988 to 1990, pretty much the height of Canseco's career. The drugs were available.

Trophy League Planet aggregates not only posts from the blogosphere, but statistics and play profiles as well. Check out this new site.

Mike Fish of ESPN.com interviews Kirk Radomski. Interestingly, he was turned in by a friend of ballplayers. The friend was in trouble with the law:

So who turned him in to the authorities?

A telling document is the affidavit in support of the search warrant executed the day before the December raid in 2005. In it, Novitzky writes that the FBI had provided a confidential informant -- described as an individual awaiting sentence on felony real estate fraud -- who learned through baseball acquaintances of an individual in New York who was supplying anabolic steroids to players.

The informant told Novitzky that one of the players supplied by Radomski had been publicly connected to the BALCO scandal. The identity of that player remains unknown publicly.

According to documents, the informant contacted a baseball source who eventually put him in contact with Radomski. The FBI tape-recorded the calls. Beginning in April 2005, the FBI informant placed at least five steroid orders on behalf of agents with Radomski, the last of which was shipped to a San Jose address provided by Novitzky.

"I know who it is. I know the real estate guy," Radomski says. "It took me a while, but I understood.

"They had a lot of information. I never talked to people about it, so it had to be ballplayers. And the so-called FBI informant, he didn't know as much as they thought he did. There had to be ballplayers that were talking."

The bigger the conspiracy, the easier it falls apart.

WasWatching notices that Joba Chamberlain will be happy with any task the Yankees give him.

This doesn't sound good for Roger Clemens:

The chairman of the House Oversight Committee is supporting Andy Pettitte's request not to have to testify publicly against his former teammate Roger Clemens at a public hearing on Wednesday, a congressional staff person said Monday.

...

Pettitte asked out of public testimony because he did not want to say something to hurt his friend and former teammate while in the glare of national television coverage, according to a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It appears there is something in Andy's deposition that casts a shadow on Clemens.

John Rocker is mouthing off again:

Former major league pitcher John Rocker said Monday that baseball commissioner Bud Selig knew he failed a drug test in 2000 and that doctors for the "league" and the "players association" advised him and several Texas Rangers teammates on how to effectively use steroids.

Rocker, no stranger to controversy, made those comments on Atlanta radio station Rock 100.5.

Later Monday, he told Atlanta sports talk radio station 680 The Fan that "between 40 to 50 percent of baseball players are on steroids" and "in 2000 Bud Selig knew John Rocker was taking the juice."

The league could test back then if there was probable cause. This also contradicts earlier statements by Rocker, detailed in the article.

Peter Gammons writes in regard to the post on the Red Sox getting no insurance on Schilling:

One year contracts are 90 day deductables at 75% of the value of the contract, are very expensive deals...if the Red Sox did insure Schilling, they would have received somewhere around $2.2M back.

Thanks, Peter!

The Rockies avoided arbitraton with Garrett Atkins, signing him for about $4.4 million. At the moment, at least, they are not going for a multi-year contract.

Both Lester and Buchholz bulked up noticably during the off season.

The Red Sox do not have insurance on Curt Schilling's contract. Edes indicates the Red Sox are worried about pitching, but I thought they were decently deep at the minor league level.

The Hardball Times staff and guests hold a round table over the Erik Bedard trade. The most interesting thing to come out of the discussion is how much of the Mariners Pythagorean luck was caused by losing blowouts. If Bedard replaces the pitchers who allowed those blowouts to happen, maybe the Mariners do have a chance to be better in 2008.

Drew Bienhoff wonders which of Hawpe and Atkins the Rockies should sign long term (of if they should sign both). He presents pros and cons for the two players, but I think the correct question should be, why should the Rockies sign either of them? Atkins seasonal age in 2008 in 28, Hawpe is 29. They each are controlled by the Rockies for three more years, taking them through their primes. Most importantly, both are poor defensive players, ranking the worst among regulars at their positions according to PMR. That means in three years they may both be more useful as designated hitters than position players. That doesn't work for the Rockies.

Colorado's concern should be developing talent to replace both, then letting them move on via free agency when they get the chance.

Peter Abraham is flying to work today:

It is 9 degrees outside of my place in New York as I write this. It's expected to get to 76 in Tampa today. Can't say I'm sorry to be getting back to work. I'm leaving for LaGuardia shortly and will check back in from Florida once I get a chance.

Dave Rouleau speaks with Jacques Doucet, former play by play man for the Montreal Expos.

Looks like Roger's lawyer shot off his mouth:

Rusty Hardin, a Houston-based lawyer representing Clemens, made his comments to The New York Times on Saturday, after he learned that Jeff Novitzky, a special agent for the Internal Revenue Service who has been leading a steroids investigation, planned to attend Wednesday's hearing.

In a letter to Hardin, the committee chairman, Representative Henry A. Waxman, Democrat of California, said his remarks could be interpreted as "an attempt to intimidate a federal law enforcement official in the performance of his official duties."

Hardin told The Times on Saturday that Novitzky's intention to attend the hearing was "unbelievable" and "brazen." Hardin also said, "I can tell you this: If he ever messes with Roger, Roger will eat his lunch."

On Sunday, Hardin, who had not yet received the letter from Waxman, said he wished he had not made the "injudicious" remark about Clemens's eating Novitzky's lunch.

When the Mitchell report first broke, I spoke to a friend who is a lawyer. I asked him what he would tell me to do if I was mentioned in such a report. His advice was to let my lawyer do all the talking, and if he were my lawyer, he wouldn't say anything. Hardin has Clemens talking way too much, and is talking way too much himself. As we've seen, Jeff Novitzky isn't someone you want working against you. After all, the IRS doesn't need a warrant to go through Mr. Hardin's and Mr. Clemens's tax returns to see if anything is amiss.

Clemens spent the last few days doing a tour of Congress. Too bad his lawyer undid all that hard work.

The Red Sox agreed to terms with Kevin Youkilis on a $3 million one-year contract. That clears the team's arbitration schedule.

Youkilis had come in far from the number offered by the team. He asked for $3.7 million, while the team offered $2.525 million. Last season the Red Sox ended up renewing his contract at $424,500.

That's decently below the mid-point.

My congratulations go out to the staff of the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference held Saturday at the Cambridge campus. They provided a star studded set of panels covering everything from owning a team to inventing new fantasy games. I especially liked Wyc Grousbeck's keynote address. He encouraged the business school students to go into a business that they love. He noted that business analysts would not have recommended he buy the Celtics. They would have valued the team between $298 million and $302 million dollars, far short of the $360 million Wyc needed to buy the franchise. Wyc, however, knew the cash flow of the club, and also knew how much he could raise in capital and how much in debt. His quick figuring told him the cash flow could cover the debt, so he bought the franchise he loved. As someone who also decided to do what he enjoyed the most, I have to agree with Wyc that it's a wonderful experience.

I was surprised that all four GMs who took part in the Defending the Title Panel gave so much weight to character. The question arose due to the various scandals that hit the major sports. However, these team architects seemed more interested in character in terms of how the player will function with the team than in the player's personal life. They want someone who is hard working and focused.

I was impressed with the cross pollination that goes on between leagues. Brian Burke of the Ducks attended the orientation session the Red Sox hold to prepare their prospects for the major leagues. Without saying what he saw, Burke called his secretary before heading back to Anaheim to make changes to the Ducks procedures. The club of GMs extends beyond their individual sports.

The most lively panel was the final one on improving the game. Bill James and John Walsh got into a lively discussion about how much broadcasters should control when the games start, both making good points. Rick Carlisle, however, appeared to be a bit out of his league. Bill was wondering if leagues really needs a strong franchise in New York, and pointed to the NBA as an argument against that. Rick categorically stated that basketball does need a strong franchise in the city. Bill asked how Rick knew that, and he said, "I just know." The audiences reaction was one of laughter. Daryl Morey noted that they were at MIT and you have to prove what you know.

Randy Vataha was quite provocative in his ideas that you need salary caps for all personnel involved in the sport. As someone who is very free market, I object to that on principle, and I was a bit surprised that in a large group of MBA students, no one challenged him on that.

Once again, the staff did a fantastic job of organizing everything from the food to the venue. I look forward to the third in the series.

Other panels covered:

• Baseball Analytics
• Gaming
• Venue and Stadium Management

P.S. For the Mets fans out there, the analytics panel was asked who was the one player that would want to start a ballclub, and Bill James named David Wright.

Mark Gonzales suggests the White Sox might trade Crede to the Giants for Noah Lowry:

Giants general manager Brian Sabean, who desperately needs a middle-of-the-order hitter of Crede's caliber (with Bengie Molina as the Giants' current cleanup hitter), told reporters Friday his team currently has pitching depth.

I thought most of the Giants hitters were of Crede's caliber.

Barry Zito lost some weight in an effort to pitch up to his contract:

"Last year, it was such a heightened sense of everything because of all the craziness going on. This year, it's more like business as usual," he said. "Last year, I felt I was singled out. I didn't feel the same as all of my teammates because there was a microscope on me. Even if there still is, I'm not perceiving it that way anymore. It's all good now."

Many people still view Zito as a $126 million bust after 2007. He prefers to focus on his final nine starts, in which he knocked .60 off his ERA. That was no coincidence, Zito said. Starting with his Aug. 17 start at Florida (one hit over seven innings), he said he pitched with a freer mind.

Actually, Zito had four very great starts in a row, then trailed off a bit, but finished on a high note in his last outing. The Giants, however, will take all those nine-game stretches they can get.

The staff at the Toronto Star feel Dustin McGowan will pass A.J. Burnett for the number two starter on the Blue Jays this year:

If you've ever watched those made-for-TV long-drive golf competitions, you sometimes wonder why a guy that can bust a golf ball a country mile and keep it between the white lines isn't making millions on the PGA Tour. It's because he hasn't figured out the rest of the game. That's A.J. Burnett. The 25-year-old McGowan can't hit it as far, but he can chip and putt. That's why he will be the No. 2 starter before the midway mark of the season.

I don't see it. In 2007, McGowen was better at keeping the ball in the park. The two were about even in walks and Burnett was much better in strikeouts. Burnett's problem isn't that he's a one-trick pony, but he can't stay healthy enough to give a team 200 innings. When he pitches, he's very good.

Here's another Manny Ramirez workout story. This is about the fourth one I've seen, and I expect Ramirez will hit 100 home runs this season. :-)

However, we do get one new piece of important information:

Ramírez's uncle Rico accompanies him to every workout, and serves as an extra assistant. He's the only guy who knows how to stuff Manny's dreads back into his kerchief.

Rick Mases sums up the near future of the Orioles, and why it's a good thing:

Friday was one of the few days in the franchise's recent history when -- regardless of what Bedard thinks -- they were not taking steps backward.

Shortly before Bedard met with reporters in Seattle, Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail addressed the media in Baltimore, where he said all the right things. He called the trade "bittersweet" and acknowledged that the Orioles had been "stuck in neutral" for too long.

There were two moist theories that finally dried and became realities last week:

• 1. The Orioles will be bad this season. I mean, really bad. Last-place bad. Meatballs 4 bad.

• 2. And, somehow, that's a good thing.

It's twisted logic, sure, but considering logic has mostly eluded the Warehouse the past decade, you take what you can get. Fact of the matter is, because the Orioles resisted a ground-up approach for so long, now that they're finally embracing a sensible rebuilding plan, the pain and suffering involved is even more excruciating than it should have been.

They're going to be Cleveland 2002. Remember, however, that out of that team rose the good Cleveland teams of two of the last three seasons.

Kirk Radomski spoke to Mike Fish of ESPN. He trusts what McMamee says, although the trainer never told Kirk names of players usings steroids. I thought Radomski's comparison of Greg Anderson and McNamee was interesting:

Radomski said he wonders about the silence displayed by personal trainer Greg Anderson when he has been questioned about Bonds, and its relationship to the ongoing Clemens-McNamee dispute.

"I think it is money," Radomski said, speculating on why Anderson hasn't spoken about Bonds. "And you know what? If that is the case, that is fine with me. He made that decision. And Bonds did the right thing there. Then Bonds ain't that bad of a guy. And he's a smart guy, at least. And he looked out for his guy.

"Why didn't Roger do that to Brian, then? You want to protect people. You want to be their friend, but friendship also has to go both ways. I guess Bonds understood that."

So Barry did a better job paying off his trainer than Clemens!

Curt Schilling received a cortisone shot in his shoulder.

The painkilling shot would allow Schilling to begin rehabbing an injured shoulder tendon. Boston's team physician believes the tendon is damaged, not torn, and that rehabilitation gives Schilling his best chance to play this year.

Schilling's physician, Dr. Craig Morgan, disagrees, saying the tendon is torn and requires surgery.

While I have sympathy for Schilling pain, does anyone else think this is a positive for the Red Sox? This gives Boston the chance to move their good, young pitchers into the rotation. I'd rather have Buchholz pitching every fifth game.

The final feature panel is looking at how to improve leagues:

• Rick Carlisle, ESPN
• Bill James
• John Walsh, ESPN
• Randy Vataha, Game Plan, LLC
• Daryl Morey, Houston Rockets

Update: Bill James and John Walsh had a good argument about baseball playoff games ending after midnight. John argued it was good for fans, since it maximizes the number of people who can watch games. He pointed out it's 9:30 on the west coast, which also has a large population.

Update: Randy Vataha wants to cap everything. He wants a cap on GM salaries, coaches, everything. Morey asks about the opposite, and brings up the premier league.

Update: Bill is talking about middle relievers. Using five relievers may be good for the club in the sense of winning the game, but it's boring for the sport. Should the league be able to step in and change the rules to prevent that?

Update: Carlisle wants to increase the diameter of the rim by 1/2 inch to increase scoring in the NBA.

Update: Vataha says third down is what makes football great for television. You need an interesting moment every so often.

Update: Sal Baxamusa, sitting next to me, raises a good point. Is the franchise the team, or is the franchise the league with subsets? That impacts how you think about salary caps.

Update: John Walsh asks about the secondary market for tickets. Morey says it's a failure by management to price their tickets.

The next panel brings in the stats heavy weights:

• Joe Bohringer, Arizona Diamondbacks scout
• Bill James, Red Sox
• Vince Gennaro, Author, "Diamond Dollars"
• Tom Tippett, Red Sox
• Roy Neyer, ESPN, Moderator

Update: The panelists are talking about how they went from outsiders to insiders. Tom Tippett says he missed the Moneyball revolution. So many of his friends didn't get insider jobs before Beane that he stopped trying. He ended up getting brought into the Red Sox organization by Bill James.

Joe Bohringer came out of the Sloan School here at MIT, started as an intern with the Yankees, and over time became very good at writing scouting reports.

Update: Tippett says the Red Sox are trying to get health data and scouting data into databases. He's trying to add value to that data.

Update: The Red Sox now have play by play, pitch and ball in play data down to the rookie league level.

Update: Gennaro tries to help teams figure out how much money a player will bring in to a team.

Update: Bohringer cherry picks the analytics he uses. For more veteran players, he uses numbers extensively. For the 18 year old Dominican player, he uses his eyes more to write the report.

Update; Bohringer says scouts are moving away from BA, HR, RBI to OBA and Slugging percentage, ERA+ and other stats.

Update: Neyer asks what would you like to know about baseball that you don't know. Tippett wants to improve predictions of major league performance from minor league performance, as well as predicting the career arc of a player.

Gennaro wants to quantify the value a marquee player brings to a team.

Update: Bill James wants to collect data on character. The Red Sox worry about that whenever they trade a player. We don't have any way of dealing with this in a organized fashion. We don't know how to collect that data.

Update: Bohringer wants a better way of evaluating players. It's much more inexact than we think. He says, "We're not only trying to be more right, we're trying to be less wrong."

Update: James is talking about what scouts see that normal fans can't. He didn't realize that until he started working for the Red Sox.

Update: The panel agrees that a lot more work needs to be done on injury risk.

Update: Bill thinks the increase in batting numbers may be driven by improvements in bat technology. Should players own the bats? Or should the league?

Update: Bill James says the Red Sox can't get careless with young talent because the Hanley Ramirez trade worked out.

This is the featured panel of the day:

• R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs
• Bill Polian, Indianapolis Colts
• Brian Burke, Anaheim Ducks
• Jed Hoyer, Boston Red Sox
• Peter Gammons, Moderator

Update: Gammons starts off asking about turnover. Pat Gillick once said to repeat, you have to turn over 25% of your roster. Jed Hoyer hopes not, since they're bringing back the same team. But Hockey and Football are forced to turn over roster due to the salary cap.

Update: Bill Polian has plenty of praise for the Red Sox, the way they bond with the fans and handle the way players leave the team. The Colts are trying to copy that.

Update: Peter asks about the character issue. Polian says it's very important. He wants focused players, not bothered by off-field issues. People with problems living life tend not to be team focused. They also have problems processing information, which is very important on the Colts. Public image is secondary.

With the Red Sox, Hoyer says they focus on character in the draft, looking for players who can handle Boston.

Update: Buford believes this generation coming through is a very poorly raised generation in terms of character. Since players are in college less, they are less mature when they get to the NBA.

Update: Burke looks for a hard working players in terms of character.

Update: Burke doesn't want twenty leaders on his team. That doesn't work.

Update: There's a discussion about depth. The hockey and football teams feel it's important down to the last man.

Update: Hoyer is talking about the short off season, adding an extra month and starting early in Japan. It's tougher for players to be durable in those conditions. He praises the Yankees of the late 1990s for surviving that every year.

Update: Gammons asks about the pressures in the other markets. Buford says the Spurs are always below high school football. :-)

Update: Hoyer says they write term papers on every more they want to make so they can defend those moves to ownership.

Update: Peter asks if the other sports do management development like the Red Sox. The Spurs say they do, as well as the Colts. The Colts have an intern program, and they've kept four of them over the years, creating jobs for two.

Update: Peter asks about the advantage of being in a big market with a salary cap. Burke makes a great point that the Montreal Canadiens can spend more on practice facilities, put more scouts in the field, and make every thing else better for the organization.

Update: Polian talked about learning from older managers as he came up through the ranks, and as he learns from his younger managers now.

Update: Hoyer says when the Red Sox start thinking like a big market team, that's when they'll fall. They'll be better off thinking like a small market team, trying to save money with young players.

Update: These teams all study other teams from other sports, and learn from each other.

Update: Hoyer says the draft is broken. He wants to fix it with slotting.

The next panel features:

• Mark Kortekaas, CBS Interactive
• Jeff Ma, Protrade
• Andy Andres, BaseballHQ
• Chris Lee, Moderator, "The Winner's Guide to Fantasy Baseball"

Update: CBS hasn't noticed a fall off in their fantasy games due to free games on ESPN. People who left came back.

Update: Jeff Ma wonders how you make a game both simple and compelling.

Update: Andy Andres just referred to fantasy friends, the people who you talk to about fantasy sports. This is different than imaginary friends, who wear i when they play sports.

Update: None of the panelists have seen any falloff from the various sports scandals.

Update: How do you forecast players in a changing drug environment? There's a big debate going on at BaseballHQ as to how to do this, or even if you can do this.

Update: I asked Jeff how you make a game simple but compelling. He says you need a game that allows players to make a lot of decisions without forcing them to make a lot of decisions.

Update: Jeff Ma suggests if you want to start a new company, use something like Facebook.

Update: Fantasy players love Juan Pierre because he steals a lot of bases.

Keith Foulke signed a major league contract with the Athletics. He'll be a setup man:

"I never considered myself a closer, I've always been a bullpen guy," he said. "Sometimes pitching in the seventh inning is more valuable than pitching in the ninth."

He's only getting $700,000, so it's a good risk for Oakland.

The Venue and Stadium Management panel features four guests:

• Tim McManus, AECOM
• Dennis Robinson, NJSEA
• John Wentzell, President, TD Banknorth Garden
• Tim Romani Romani Group, built new Comiskey

Charles Wu of Baynorth Capital is the moderator.

Update: Sites are very important. Wu brings up San Diego and Baltimore and examples of changing an entire neighborhood. Dennis Robinson makes the point that the facilities are just one part of bigger redevelopment projects.

Update: They're talking about who should drive design in developing a stadium. There's a good story about architects wanting to do glass atriums, but there are security risks to that, and huge window washing costs!

Update: Ben Watson of the Patriots is at the conference. He's traveled to China promoting football.

There's a good bit about arenas becoming revenue obsolete. LED signage in 1999 made a number of newer arenas obsolete in that regard.

Update: Sal Baxamusa is also live blogging the conference.

Update: How do you make stadiums green? The best way is to pick a dirty site and clean it up. Venues, by their very nature, are difficult to make green just because you have a large number of people traveling by car to the event.

Baseball Musings made the top 25 sports blogs for January.

The conference is about to get underway with a keynote address by Wyc Grousbeck, the Boston Celtics CEO.

Update: Here's Wyc:

Update: Grousbeck is talking about why we love sports. We love the excitement, the conflict.

He uses Ted Williams last home run as an example of the excitement of fans being part of history. The fans cheered for minutes to try to get Williams to come out, and he didn't (he read the Updike New Yorker piece). Williams never came out, but the fans knew they were part of a special moment.

Update: His second point is on decision making. Wyc wants to use data and analytics to help decision making, but he doesn't want to hide behind the data in making decisions.

Update: His decision to buy Celtics was an emotional one with 90 seconds of analysis. The cash flow worked, so he paid more for the team so the deal would go through.

Update: Wyc's third point is talking about putting this team together.

1. Hiring Danny Ainge because he was a team player. They didn't have any data on him as a GM, but they liked the way he would work with them.


2. Extended Paul Pierce. Wants him to be a Celtic for life. Another emotional decision.


3. Trading for Ray Allen, knowing they could trade for Garnett later. A data driven decision.

Data is a tool, but dosn't drive decision making.

Update: People at the peak of their performance aren't driven by the money. They love what they're doing. He gives a good example of Kevin Garnett showing up early for an optional practice, missing two shots in a row, then running suicide sprints as self-inflicted punishment.

Update: A very good keynote. I agree with his final point that you should do what you love. It worked for me.

Karl Ehrhardt passed away. He was the Shea Stadium sign man. My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

My favorite was during the 1973 World Series. Charlie Finley had fired one of his second basemen after he made an error. So whenever the A's made an error, Karl held up a sign that said, "You're fired." Maybe that's where Donald Trump got the idea. :-)

The Giants signed Kevin Correia and won't go to any arbitration hearings this year.

Kirk Radomski avoid jail and Mrs. Clemens is accused of taking HGH. This Clemens story gets stranger all the time.

Update: Yankees Chick sums up the Clemens story very well.

Baseball Digest Daily just emailed that the Erik Bedard deal is done. More later.

We finish the look at team offenses for 2008 with the Washington Nationals.

In 2007, the Nationals scored 4.15 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The numbers for pitchers are based on the team averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.72 runs per game
• Given: 4.44 runs per game
• Worst: 4.08 runs per game

That looks like a decent improvement for the Nationals. A full season of Wily Mo Pena in left, Milledge in center, and a bounce back from Zimmerman should make this a better scoring year for the Nationals. Note, too that Nick Johnson projects to a much better season than Dmitri Young.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Houston Astros
• Minnesota Twins
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Chicago White Sox
• San Francisco Giants

Dr. Morgan gave Curt Schilling a second opinion on his arm injury, and is in the minority of the three doctors who examined the Red Sox pitcher. Morgan's opinion is that Schilling will never pitch again without surgery:

"When the tendon becomes irreversibly diseased, which my opinion is that it is now, the fibers are bundles within the single tendon, can start to separate longitudinally. It isn't torn cross-wise, it separates into these bands of spaghetti would be a good term to have a layman understand it. And once you see that, which is how it appears on his recent MRI, then really conservative measures will not resolve the pain. And without resolving the pain by conservative measures, I see no shot at being able to have him become pain free and strengthening of the shoulder muscles with or without a cortisone shot. I don't think this guy will even be able to exercise, to be able to find out whether that approach is successful in any way, shape, or form.

And this on Schilling's pain:

Morgan said Schilling was in pain when he started his exercise program before January, and when he started his offseason throwing program, he had a dramatic increase in pain.

"And by dramatic, he told me he could throw a ball five feet. By dramatic, I mean this guy's got pain opening a door. He was not able to complete all of the positions that were requested for his MRI on Jan. 24 because he couldn't put his arm above his head and hold it there without excruciating pain -- that's what we're talking about here."

There's a link to the audio at the post.

U.S.S. Mariner doesn't believe the Bedard trade will work out well:

It's more important this season, though. The M's have decided they're going to take a shot at the division title and are making a potentially huge long-term sacrifice for a short-term gain. It's the result of their assessment of the team's potential this season. If they're wrong, they've done themselves wrong. If they're right, the rewards for getting the team to the playoffs are huge.

That's why I look at the sims, for instance, and frown. If the trade off was Jones for a World Series, I would take it -- I think any of us would. It's not that certain, of course. But if the team's really only going to win 88 games with Bedard and miss the playoffs, or if they're going to finish much worse than that, the long-term tradeoff isn't worth it.

Teams do, however, get lucky, and the better team you put on the field, the more likely it is that positive luck will take you to the playoffs.

CBSSportsline details Johan Santana's option for year seven of the contract. It turns out, we won't know until then who holds the option. If Santana reaches certain incentives, the option becomes his, and he can walk away to test the free agent market.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the San Francisco Giants.

In 2007, the Giants scored 4.22 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The numbers for pitchers are based on the team averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.23 runs per game
• Given: 3.99 runs per game
• Worst: 3.71 runs per game

This going to be a very sad year for the Giants offense. Even with Bonds in 2007 they posted the second lowest runs per game in the majors. Not one person in the starting lineup is projected to obtain an OPS of .800. No one looks to get on over 35% of the time, and only one player is projected to slug over .450.

It's really sad to see once good offensive players like Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham fall apart like this. The Giants really need to blow up this lineup and start over.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Houston Astros
• Minnesota Twins
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Chicago White Sox

The Smoking Gun has the pictures of McNamee's evidence. Somehow, I don't think this is going to convince anyone.

I'll be covering the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference tomorrow in Cambridge, MA. You can read my summary of last year's conference here.

Curt writes about his shoulder at 38 Pitches:

Please understand that a lot of what has been reported is not true. When the club feels it's appropriate to further discuss the details of this issue publicly I will elaborate but I need to make it clear that Dr Morgan did NOT diagnose me with a tear of the rotator cuff at any time during this process, nor did he recommend rotator cuff surgery.

...

After being diagnosed by the Red Sox medical staff I sought a second opinion, as anyone would, and when it became clear there was disagreement (which is not uncommon by the way), I agreed to see an independent Doctor from a list the Red Sox provided me, for the third opinion.

At this time I have agreed to abide with the clubs wishes in hopes that will provide the results they believe it will.

It certainly doesn't sound like the Red Sox will get a full season out of Curt Schilling.

Dodgers stars both old and new signed autographs in Santa Monica recently. LA Cityzine did a photo essay.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Chicago White Sox.

In 2007, the White Sox scored 4.28 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 5.39 runs per game
• Given: 5.29 runs per game
• Worst: 5.06 runs per game

That's a huge improvement for the White Sox. A lot of that comes from putting Swisher and Cabrera in center and at short. Health, however, is a big factor for the White Sox. If they can keep Dye, Thome, and Konerko healthy, they can get a lot of power out of the middle of the lineup. None of them are young men any more, however. This also assumes they find a way to keep both Crede and Fields in the lineup.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Houston Astros
• Minnesota Twins
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals

The Royals signed Mark Teahen and Zack Greinke avoiding arbitration for 2008.

Erik Bedard is scheduled to start his physcial in Seattle today.

Over at YanksFan-SoxFan, a link to a Boston Herald post on the state of Curt Schilling's shoulder.

While the precise nature of Schilling's injury is not known, it is believed that the right-hander is suffering from an injury to the rotator cuff and/or labrum that might require surgery. It is possible that the sides disagree on how to treat Schilling's ailment and that a course of treatment, too, is a part of their disagreement.

If Schilling has surgery on his shoulder, it is almost certain that he would be unable to pitch this season.

Did Curt's off season workout regimen not work?

Update: A no comment from Schilling.

Update: The Red Sox issued a statement on Schilling:

Curt Schilling was examined by Red Sox doctors in January after he reported feeling right shoulder discomfort. Curt has started a program of rest, rehabilitation and shoulder strengthening in an attempt to return to pitching.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Kansas City Royals.

In 2007, the Royals scored 4.36 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.86 runs per game
• Given: 4.82 runs per game
• Worst: 4.64 runs per game

That looks like a nice improvement over last season. If the lineup listed at CBSSportsline really is the one Hillman is thinking of using, it's very close to the optimum as calculated by this program. I'm impressed that he recognizes that Grudzielanek is not a top of the order hitter. I'm not sure how much Guillen helps them in rightfield. The Royals added some power at the position, but there's an offsetting loss of OBA compared to 2007 rightfielders. Still, with very little change, the team is moving in the right direction.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Houston Astros
• Minnesota Twins
• Arizona Diamondbacks

Fans picked up the pace of buying Blue Jays tickets this season. One reason is the schedule:

Elster gives most of the credit to an improved schedule. Last year, fans grumbled that key rivals in New York and Boston didn't play a single weekend game in Toronto.

This year, the Red Sox visit during the home opening weekend April 4-6. The Yankees will arrive for a July series just ahead of the all-star game. The Jays will also host the Chicago Cubs and 1992 World Series opponents, the Atlanta Braves.

In the 1980s, I had a weekend pass to Fenway Park. With fourteen teams, no interleague play and a balanced schedule, every opponent had one weekend at Fenway. Fans with that package no longer get to see every AL team.

Erik Bedard still hasn't traveled to Seattle for his physical. Since it was reported that Jones and Sherrill took their physicals, it makes one wonder if something showed up in one of those.

Kevin Millwood found a new workout routine this winter. He's kickboxing:

It was more than motivation after a poor season that pushed Millwood to make the short drive from his house to the studio last October. Boredom was a big factor. Millwood complained to Jose Vazquez, the Rangers' strength and conditioning coach, that jogging on the treadmill or riding a stationary bike had become a necessity that he dreaded.

"I've tried everything to find something he likes to get him enthusiastic," Vazquez said. "He doesn't get excited about workouts at all. Everything we've done, we do because he knows he has to. But he really likes this and enjoys going."

He'll be ready if George Bell makes a comeback.

I can't wait to see the PETA protests at Shea.

Update: They took down the cock fighting video.

Kelvim Esobar came down with shoulder soreness.

The Angels said an MRI taken by Dr. Lewis Yocum showed no significant changes in Escobar's shoulder. Escobar was 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA in 30 starts for the AL West champions last season.

I suppose it's better to happen now so he has time to heal for the regular season.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Brian McNamee turned over what he claims is physical evidence linking Roger Clemens to steroids:

McNamee kept syringes, gauze pads and vials from the 2000 and 2001 seasons because he feared Clemens would deny illicit drug use if the matter was ever investigated, according to the anonymous source cited by the newspaper.

I had a feeling Mitchell was going on something more than McNamee's word. We'll see how this plays out.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In 2007, the Diamondbacks scored 4.40 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For the pitchers, I used the team's 2007 averages for the position. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.78 runs per game
• Given: 4.51 runs per game
• Worst: 4.27 runs per game

This is a modest improvement, mostly from the young players maturing a little more. If the coaches can somehow get Chris Young to bring his OBA up without sacrificing power, this could be a very good lineup. I sill like this offense long term. As they reach their peak performance years, I suspect they'll be a force in the NL. Combined with a good pitching staff, the Diamondbacks constructing a long term winner.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Houston Astros
• Minnesota Twins

The Pittsburgh Post Gazette looks at Frank Coonelly's todo list. He sounds like he's on the right track in turning the team around, but I don't expect it to happen quickly.

The Rangers are about to announce Nolan Ryan as their next president.

What has yet to be determined is whether Ryan will have oversight responsibilities over the club's baseball operation. No team president since Tom Schieffer left the club has had those responsibilities. Rangers owner Tom Hicks had set up his power structure to have both the general manager and president report directly to him, but kept their responsibilities separate.

My latest SportingNews.com column looks at why the most talented pitcher brought the least in trade value.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

U.S.S. Mariner observes that the Red Sox and Mariners value players differently:

Every other team in baseball looked at this skillset and said "not interested". The Red Sox looked at this skillset and said "useful bench player if he'll play for nothing". The Mariners looked at this skillset and said "Starting DH, $6 million salary, #2 hitter".

Luis Castillo had a hand in bringing Johan Santana to the Mets:

"When I got traded," Castillo said on a conference call yesterday from the Dominican Republic, "I remember Johan, in the locker room, we talked for 20 minutes. He told me he wanted to play for the Mets.

"So when I got over there I told (GM Omar) Minaya that Johan liked the Mets. I told him, 'I know he'll make a lot of money, but he's a great pitcher, and we need him here.' "

It makes you wonder, if the Twins had kept Castillo, would Johan have accepted the organization's contract offer?

On the anniversary of Babe Ruth's birth, a Baltimore researcher will erect a head stone on the grave of Katie Ruth, the Babe's mother. It's a fascinating story:

Curiously, her death notice in newspapers mentioned her sister, but no husband and no children. Still more peculiar, on the death notice that Harris found, Katie is listed as a widow, even though her husband outlived her by six years. George Herman Ruth Sr. was later buried in Loudon Park Cemetery, where his headstone mentions his second wife, but not Katie.

The forgotten woman is being remembered today.

Joel Sherman notes Brian Cashman might be building the Yankees team for another GM:

Cashman has just one year left on his contract. No one would be surprised if he returned again, that his love for the job and his long history with the Steinbrenner family produce another contract. But no one around the Yankees - or really around baseball - would be surprised either if VP of scouting Damon Oppenheimer, like Reese, graduates from heading a draft room to directing the big room. Oppenheimer's outstanding recent drafts have provided much of the backbone to support Cashman's vision of restoring youth and financial sanity to the Yankees roster.

But youth usually takes time. Eli Manning, after all, needed most of his four seasons to navigate from promise to promised land. Cashman is savvy enough to know that no general lessons are going to be learned from that journey. It isn't like New York fans and the New York media will find a collective patience with Hughes or Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in memory of how, just a month ago, most of the tri-state region had rendered a final, merciless report on the bust that was Eli Manning.

"There is going to be growing pains," Cashman said.

It's actually rather sad that the Yankees can't take a step back and fully reload and rebuild. The poor teams of the early 1990s set up their success later that decade. Of course, after all these years it seems strange to me that teams like the Yankees and Braves who make the playoffs every year can be considered failures for not winning the World Series.

Erik Bedard is still in Canada.

Phil Hughes almost eaten by alligator!

DRays Bay interviews B.J. Upton. I wonder if they'll get a letter asking them to change the name of the blog to Rays Bay?

Here's an interesting study that shows significant improvement for ball players associated with Jose Canseco. I haven't had time to read the whole report, but it seems to make it likely that without Jose, the PED problem in baseball might be much smaller.

Hat tip, The Book.

Tom Verducci lists seven young pitchers likely to be injured in 2008.

Yankees fans run the Mets store.

Ken Rosenthal looks at the chances of Jeter and A-Rod breaking Pete Rose's hit record. If Alex catches up a bit to Jeter in hits, it could make for a very interesting season 11 or 12 years from now. Both would be way beyond their primes, but driven to break they record they keep playing. They might be so close that any day might put one in front of the other. The probability is it won't happen, but it would be a huge story for MLB.

The Blue Jays cleared their arbitration table by signing Alex Rios to a $4.8 million contract, well below the midpoint of the submitted numbers:

While the 26-year-old Rios is not eligible for free agency for another three years, Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has expressed interest in signing him to a multiyear extension. On Jan. 25, Ricciardi said he had held "productive" talks with Rios' agent about a long-term deal.

I'm guessing Rios took the lower figure to pave the way for the multi-year deal. By my count, six teams are free of arbitration cases.

Cubs f/x sums up the latest Cardinals move perfectly.

La Velle Neal catches up with Johan Santana. It seems a lot of rumors about the negotiations were just those, rumors:

"It's kind of hard to believe," Santana said during a phone conversation from his home in Fort Myers, Fla. "I was hoping I would get something done with the Twins, but it didn't happen. I know I'm going to a team that will give me a chance to win.

"From the beginning I told people, when I talk to [the Twins], I didn't have any team in mind. They narrowed it down and they got to the Mets and I said that would be cool. It would be a new experience for me and I will be up to that challenge. At the end, I was hoping Minnesota would get the best deal available."

I disagree with this:

On Wednesday, the star lefthander will be introduced as the newest member of the New York Mets. He will be armed with a six-year, $137.5 million contract, making the Twins' four-year, $80 million extension offer look extremely inadequate -- but not inadequate enough to have Santana complaining on his way to the Big Apple.

The offer was not extremely inadequate. It's $20 million a year vs. $23 million a year. And if Johan believes he can be productive for six years, he'd get a bigger payday when his four year run with the Twins was over and he hit free agency. Let's face it, the Twins offer would make him the highest paid pitcher in the game. That wasn't good enough. He wanted the largest total value, too.

What can Google tell us about the Marlins fan base?

(Top cities searching for "Marlins" are Ft. Lauderdale, Delray Beach, and Boca Raton. Miami comes in fourth.)

It took the Angels a long time to establish a deep, local fan base in Anaheim. There was a long period during which most people showing up at games there were coming to see the visiting team. That's happening a bit in Washington as well. In the case of the Angels, taking forty years to develop a great team didn't help.

The Pirates are about to sign Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal with a vesting option for the third year:

For 2010, there will be a club option that would involve another raise if the Pirates exercise it, a buyout if they do not. But that comes with a large asterisk: If Sanchez performs at a certain level in the first two seasons of the contract -- believed to be based on a reasonable threshold of plate appearances -- a provision in the contract automatically triggers that option.

That year was known to be important to Sanchez, who was set to become a free agent after the 2009 season. This arrangement will allow the Pirates to retain his rights one year beyond that, even as it will offer Sanchez a vehicle to prove his worth independently.

Sanchez will earn about $19 million if the option kicks in. Not bad for a middle infielder who can hit. The problem with Sanchez is his age. His seasonal age for 2008 is 30, meaning the Pirates are just catching the end of the peak of his career. If the decline comes sooner than later, the Pirates are off the hook.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Minnesota Twins.

In 2007, the Twins scored 4.43 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 5.05 runs per game
• Given: 4.87 runs per game
• Worst: 4.70 runs per game

It speaks to just how badly the Twins offense played last year that this lineup is predicted to outscore the 2007 team. Adam Everett may turn out to be the worst everyday offensive player in the AL this season. Gomez is predicted to fall short of Torii's Hunter's numbers. But there is improvement at catcher, third base, and the other two outfield spots. Too bad they didn't keep Santana to go along with the improved offense.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Houston Astros

U.S.S. Mariner runs a simulation based on ZiPS and gets very ugly results for the 2008 Seattle Mariners.

Defensive Indifference responds to Catfish Stew over how much emotion and stats should figure into a Hall of Fame argument.

I just want to throw in my two cents on the Jim Rice strikes fear argument. That may have been true in the late 1970s, but most of the years I attended games at Fenway the correct strategy with one out and Rice coming up third was to throw eight straight balls, then let Rice hit the first pitch into a double play. Jim never thought, "This guy is wild, I'll wait for him to throw one down the plate." He thought, "This guy threw eight straight balls, he has to throw his next pitch over the plate, I'm going to swing!" He posted great stats in that time period, but spent a lot of the Red Sox outs.

The press took a tour of Nationals Park yesterday:

The stadium's modest size is among its most striking features. The first row of the lower bowl is 16 feet closer to the field than its counterpart at roomy, 46-year-old RFK Stadium, the last major league stadium to open in the District of Columbia. RFK was the home of the Nationals for three seasons while the new, $611 million facility was being constructed.

Everything about the stadium seems smaller than RFK - particularly the power alleys, which are 377 and 370 feet, respectively, from home plate.

It sounds like a nice park for watching a game. I suspect the reduced foul territory will help increase offense.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Houston Astros.

In 2007, the Astros scored 4.46 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 5.14 runs per game
• Given: 4.84 runs per game
• Worst: 4.49 runs per game

The Astros look like they'll put a pretty good lineup on the field if their hitter live up to these expectations. Matusi should use far fewer outs than Craig Biggio. While Matsui isn't an offensive force by any means, he'll be about 50 points better in terms of OBA. Towles projects to impressive numbers, but even if he falls short of the predicted OBA and slugging percentage, he should be an improvement over Ausmus. Even Berkman rebounds after a bit of an off year. Maybe the obituaries for the Astros are being written a little too early.

The lineup used is from CBSSportsline. I would bat Pence second and move Matsui down to the bottom of the order. The lineup I would use would score 4.91 runs per game.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Pirates

Here's the latest Orioles rumor:

Once completed the deal will likely be announced this afternoon or tomorrow morning. League Officials now expect the deal that would send Roberts to the Cubs to be finalized and completed by the weekend. They now expect that George Sherrill to be part of the deal. The O's have no use for a 31 year old reliever in there pen and want to get younger. Sherrill will ensure that the O's will get at least two pitchers in the deal from the Cubs.

Remember to take everything you hear about this deal with a huge grain of salt. Thanks to David Gerstman for the heads up.

If you want to help save the Hall of Fame game, this site wants you to e-mail the powers that be.

My wife Marilyn just became a real estate agent. If you're looking for a house in the Springfield, MA area or thinking about relocating to the area, give her a call or drop her an E-Mail.

The Tampa Bay Rays found out I was still sometimes using the name "Devil."
They've asked me to stop. I'll be sending in a $10 fine.

The Tigers lock up Curtis Granderson for at least five seasons. The Tigers buy out all three years of arbitration and his first year of free agency, with an option for the second. Another example of a team locking up a good, young player through the prime of his career. I haven't heard anything about money yet.

Update: ESPN reports the deal at a total value of $30.25 million.

It strikes me that these deals are going to end up distorting the free agent market. By keeping these players until they are starting their decline phases, not only are teams saving money now, they're saving their fellow owners money later. A 32-year-old free agent just isn't (or shouldn't be) worth the save as a 28-year-old with the same skills.

More evidence the deal between Baltimore and Seattle is going to happen:

The long-awaited blockbuster trade that would send Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for five players is finally nearing completion. According to a league source, Adam Jones, the young outfielder who is the centerpiece of the Mariners' offer, is in Baltimore today and the deal is now pending results of physicals.

If all goes well with Jones' physical, the trade could be announced as early as this afternoon. It is expected that the Orioles will send Bedard, the organization's first legitimate ace since Mike Mussina, to Seattle for Jones, a 22-year-old who is one of baseball's best prospects, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

Stay tuned.

Now we know about Don Mattingly's personal problems. I agree with Jon:

I wish each of them both the best in trying to recover from their troubles.

The signing of Girardi by the Yankees turns out to be the right move.

When Josh Beckett's contract is up, will the Red Sox not be able to sign him, or will they choose not to sign him?

With absolutely no apologies to Cole Porter and the YPMB:

Bulldog! Bulldog!
Bow, wow, wow
Eli Manning
Bulldog! Bulldog!
Bow, wow, wow
Brady is on his fanning.

When the son of Archie
Throws down the field,
Nobody will be panning!
Bulldog! Bulldog!
Bow, wow, wow
Eli Manning!

Jim Souhan muses on the Twins and George Steinbrenner:

For decades, the Twins complained privately about George Steinbrenner. The bombastic Yankees owner inflated salaries, campaigned against low-revenue teams and often embarrassed himself and the game.

Today, the Twins might miss King George more than they miss Johan Santana.

Jim's thesis is that George Steinbrenner would have made the Santana deal, and the Twins would wind up with a better package of players.

Evan Grant looks at the pros and cons of hiring Nolan Ryan as president of the Rangers:

For Ryan, the most attractive part of rejoining the Rangers would be the ability to have a bigger say on baseball issues. And I'm not sure that would happen. The structure Tom Hicks has used since Schieffer left the club is for the GM and the president to report directly to him, not to have one report to the other. If Ryan and Jon Daniels both report directly to Hicks, what does the owner do the first time they have a difference in opinion on a baseball issue? And if he sides with one, would human nature not leave the other one feeling a little powerless?

Of course, Hicks could always change the club's flow chart to a more traditional alignment in which Daniels reported to the president. But after years of inner turmoil (see John Hart-Buck Showalter era), the club seems to be headed in the right direction even if there is a long way to go. If Hicks inserts a level of management between Daniels and himself, he could end up unintentionally changing the team's direction. One thing this organization doesn't need right now is another change of directions.

Grant also notes that if Ryan does decide to join the Rangers in some capacity, that's a positive sign the Rangers are indeed moving in the right direction.

Correction: I had LaRoche's slugging percentage wrong in the original post. I've updated based on the correct slugging percentage.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In 2007, the Pirates scored 4.47 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.69 runs per game
• Given: 4.48 runs per game
• Worst: 4.19 runs per game

Standing pat caused the Pirates to project to stay even with 2007, despite the Marcels showing a big rebound in Jason Bay's batting averages. The overall team OBA isn't bad. The NL average in 2007 was .334, and most players in the lineup are right around that. There's no power to back it up, however. This is an offense that does an okay job of putting men on base, but does very little to move them around with power.

I wonder if Barry Bonds would come back to Pittsburgh? That's what used to happen to old sluggers. Ruth went back to Boston, Aaron to Milwaukee, and Mays to New York. From their history, Bonds probably wouldn't play in Pittsburgh again, but you never know. The Pirates could spend a lot on a one year deal and add a great deal of offense to the team without mortgaging the future.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• St. Louis Cardinals

Didn't we do this story last week?

Mariners outfielder Adam Jones traveled to Baltimore on Sunday, a source said, presumably to undergo a physical examination that originally was scheduled for Jan. 29.

I just cleaned up the blogroll, removing any blogs I thought were inactive. If I removed your blog mistakenly, please let me know and I'll put it back. If you are a baseball blogger who is not listed, write me and I'll add you as well.

This was a no lose Super Bowl for me since I'm a Giants fan and I also like the Patriots. I did like the outcome, however. The Giants have to be the luckiest football team I ever saw. They do a good job of disappointing all game, then coming up with a big play just when you think they're done. The catch against the helmet after Manning was in the grasp of the defense was a perfect example.

Now, at least, I don't have to listen to people complain about Eli Manning.

There are ninety free agents still available. It looks like teams are more willing to spend their money on youth rather than aging veterans:

More than a few agents these days grumble, always anonymously, that teams are flirting dangerously close to collusion. With revenues creeping above the $6 billion mark, agents point to the slow-moving free agent market as proof something is askew. Some agents are still trying to get over the shock and chagrin of the Theo Epstein and Larry Beinfest-inspired idea at last November's GM meetings to have clubs openly announce who is available for trade while detailing some of their offseason quests.

A more sober analysis calls for an honest appraisal of who remains unsigned. Some very useful veterans are still on the market, but it is no stretch to understand why teams would rather take a flier on upside than gamble on declining skills.

"It's an aggressive market now for outstanding payers, but for non-regulars and even some regulars, teams are looking within more often," said longtime agent Adam Katz, who still has veterans Sammy Sosa, Aaron Sele and Tony Batista unsigned. "Going with kids is one way to save money, and one result of that is that there are a lot of quality veterans out there now without a job."

Khalil Greene agreed to a two year deal with the Padres, avoiding arbitration for the rest of his eligibility.

Rays Index examines the idea of Evan Longoria starting the season in AAA because of the experiences of Alex Gordon and Ryan Braun. Evan wants a chance to win the job.

I know the Rays are building a team here, but the job of the organization is to win. If Evan looks like he can handle the job coming out of the spring, they're a better team with him.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the St. Louis Cardinals.

In 2007, the Cardinals scored 4.48 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. Tango did not project Brian Barton, so I used the newly released PECOTA averages. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.95 runs per game
• Given: 4.76 runs per game
• Worst: 4.37 runs per game

The middle of the order, slots two through five look very good. A squad can generate surprisingly good offense by bunching four strong hitters together. The team, however, is very weak up the middle offensively. I'm somewhat surprised PECOTA rated Barton so low, since he's posted stellar OBAs throughout his minor league career. The Cardinals may get a boost from him living up to his minor league numbers.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers

It's Anthony Tomey day at the Detroit Free Press. There's a story about his sub shop (with photos and sandwich suggestions) as well as a blurb about his prospects for making the team.

Interestingly, the article talks about his fastball not being fast enough, yet Tomey struck out a ton of batters in the minor leagues. His problem is that he walks a ton of hitters. He strikes out over 10 per 9, gives up a home run every 27 innings, but walks close to six per nine. He's two thirds of the way to a major league career. He got his walks down to 4.14 per 9 in AA last year and posted a great ERA. He's good on the Ks and HRs to survive four walks per nine.

This keeps getting more bizarre:

There are also some other crazy rumors out there today regarding a possible 6-for-2 deal that may or may not include Brian Roberts, and there is also something out there about Erik Bedard currently in Seattle.

The Roberts thing has been going around for a while but has recently been gaining steam. It wouldn't surprise me, because the Mariners could stand to upgrade at second base. If Roberts was added to the deal we would probably see one of the above pitchers dropped from the proposal, and possible Carlos Triunfel and Jose Lopez or Yung Chi Chen being added.

A week ago Jones told a reporter he was going to Baltimore for a physical, and we still have almost no clue as to what's really going on. I wonder what the breaking point is for Seattle? At some point, you might expect them to just throw in the towel and stop dealing with Baltimore.

Voros McCracken notes base running isn't the problem for the White Sox this year. He also describes how the White Sox can build a team in which base running does matter.

Yanksfans vs. Soxfan uses the newly release PECOTA (subscription required) projections to predict the Red Sox won-lost record.

The Indians signed Casey Blake to a one-year contract, keeping their streak of not going to arbitration alive. The last time they went to a hearing was in 1991.

Every batter looks like Hannah Montana, When they step up to the plate against Johan Santana.

He's been a member of the Mets for about four hours, and he already has his own song. It's pretty good, too.

All the pain from last year is gone, The fans are happy with Fred Wilpon.

That may be. However, to paraphrase Star Wars, "Great trade, don't get cocky."

Joe Christensen publishes the details of the Santana deal. The 2014 option vests:

It's a vesting option that can be triggered with innings pitched or a high finish in the Cy Young voting. Santana also received a full no-trade clause. The average annual value of Santana's six-year deal is actually $22 million. Only Alex Rodriguez (at $27.5 million) will make more.

The Mets also tore up the old contract, so Santana receives $19 million in 2008. Johan got a very good deal here. Santana and his agent played this whole deal perfectly. They used the no-trade cause to force the Twins to make a deal, then used the short negotiation window to force the Mets to pay free agent money without free agency. On top of great money and seven years, they also get a full no-trade! Not even a short list of teams! I can't imagine what he'd get if he actually became a free agent.

Johan Santana passed his physical with flying colors.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In 2007, the Dodgers scored 4.54 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 5.08 runs per game
• Given: 4.84 runs per game
• Worst: 4.54 runs per game

The Dodgers managed to improve, mostly by getting rid of Luis Gonzalez and giving a full time job to James Loney. But the Dodgers have choices in constructing their lineup. The above represents the "old" lineup, including Pierre and Garciaparra as every day players. A young lineup, replacing those two with Ethier and LaRoche yields the following:

• Best: 5.25 runs per game
• Given: 5.04 runs per game
• Worst: 4.76 runs per game

Playing the youngsters increases scoring by about 0.2 runs per game, or about 32 runs over a season. That's three wins. Given the close nature of the NL races the last few years, three wins could be huge. However, it's tough to sit players who are earning the big bucks.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics
• San Diego Padres

Jayson Stark writes an excellent column today on how the Santana trade changes baseball:

So that contract extension Johan Santana negotiated with the Mets on Friday -- all $137.5 million of it -- made a lot of people happy, all right. He's a franchise-changing guy. He's a pennant-race-changing guy. And now he's also a salary-structure-changing guy.

Which means he already has left an indelible imprint on the baseball universe, before he has even thrown his first pitch as a Met.

He also makes a very important point about the trade, as well as letting Torii Hunter go. These were choices by the Twins. The offer Minnesota made to Johan Santana shows they could have kept him. They could have gone more money/more years. It was their business plan, not their revenue that the prevented them from doing that.

And remember, offer to Santana would have made him the highest paid pitcher in terms of yearly salary. That wasn't enough for Johan. He wanted a bigger total contract that Barry Zito. So I'd argue it was Zito's contract that actually changed the landscape. The Giants made a good but not great pitcher the highest paid in the game for a very long time period. If the Giants sign Zito for five years, $18 million, then the Twins might actually keep Santana with a five-year, $20 million per year contract. But if the Twins have to beat the total dollar amount, that makes it much tougher.

The Mets and Santana had their deadline extended two hours.

Update: The deal is done:

...Update...6:44 pm...

The Mets have issued a statement saying negotiations are complete and Santana is scheduled to take a physical.

...from what i can gather, the physical will be tomorrow...

...Update...6:46 pm...

...i have reason to believe the deal is for a guaranteed six years, and $137.5 million...as expected, he'll stay under contract on his current deal, but paid roughly $7 million on top of that...i can't confirm that with people connected to the team, though...

Update: The New York Daily News has more.

The deal bumps this season's salary to approximately $20 million and adds six guaranteed years at $22-23 million.

I believe this is only the third player to receive $20 million a year for a long term contract, the others being A-Rod (twice) and Manny Ramirez.

River Ave. Blues writes a pro Brian Cashman column. After waking up this morning and seeing the vitrol thrown Cashman's way by a number of Yankees bloggers, I almost wrote something like this myself.

I have a question for the anti-Cashman group. Whom would you rather see as GM? Please show me a GM who hasn't made bad moves. And please show me a GM who would be able to put up with Steinbrenner for so long. As well as Bob Watson performed, he was almost driven to a nervous breakdown in the job. Paul DePodesta couldn't handle Dodgers management. Theo Epstein quit over disagreements with upper management. Do you think Schuerholz or Pat Gillick or Billy Beane or John Hart would stand for that kind of interference. Do you want Terry Ryan to turn your offense into a bunch of opposite field hitters? Would you rather have Omar Minaya wasting your money?

I'm all ears.

The Twins are looking to sign Josh Fogg if the Santana deal goes through:

I don't mean to slight Fogg, but if you're a Twins fan, that can't be all that comforting. "Who cares if we lost Johan Santana? We're getting Josh Fogg!" It doesn't exactly keep you warm during those cold Minnesota winter nights. Though I suppose he'll come in handy should a dragon start terrorizing the Twin Cities.

In case the Twins haven't noticed, Josh Fogg isn't very good. He had a career year in 2007 and went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA.

We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the San Deigo Padres.

In 2007, the Padres scored 4.55 runs per game.

I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:

• Best: 4.74 runs per game
• Given: 4.57 runs per game
• Worst: 4.25 runs per game

For all intents and purposes, the Padres stood pat with their offense. They should improve at second base, making up for any fall off in the outfield. Once again, however, this team is depending on great pitching in a low scoring ballpark to put wins on the board.

Greene continues to be a problem. PETCO Park really kills his numbers. He's a perfectly fine hitter for a middle infielder on the road, but at home he's Mark Belanger in a bad year. He probably should be batting 8th at home.

Previous teams covered in the series:

• NY Yankees
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Detroit Tigers
• Boston Red Sox
• Colorado Rockies
• LAnaheim Angels
• Texas Rangers
• Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners
• Florida Marlins
• Cincinnati Reds
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Baltimore Orioles
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago Cubs
• Oakland Athletics

Could the Phillies have signed a worst offensive third baseman?

Yesterday, on his first official day as a Phillie, Feliz smiled brightly at the memory of Snow's big night. After spending his career in what his former teammate called "the toughest place to hit," Feliz will play in a stadium with tempting power alleys.

"It's not an easy park to hit home runs," the Phillies' new third baseman said of his former home in San Francisco. "I wouldn't say it's easier to hit them here, but I hope this is better."

There's no doubt San Francisco hurt Feliz's home run power, but the road didn't help anything else. Feliz owns a .276 career OBA on the road, and hasn't had a season with a .300 OBA since 2004. It's not like he's a decent hitter with a great glove. He's a black hole of outs at third base.

Substituting Feliz for Dobbs knocks 0.1 runs off the Phillies offense per game.

Via MetsBlog.com, Ken Davidoff predicts the negotiations:

Within the baseball industry, there is near unanimity on these two predictions when it comes to the Mets and Johan Santana:

1. They will come to an agreement on Santana's contract extension by Friday afternoon's 5 o'clock deadline.

2. They won't complete that agreement until 4:59.

This is one of those situations where there's no reason to reach an agreement early. Both sides know they want to get the deal done, it's just waiting and seeing which side is most willing to go that extra million or ten at the last minute. Santana was willing to play the season out with Minnesota, then test free agency. As long as he maintains that attitude, he should come out ahead.

The Buffalo News prints the deposition schedule leading up to the February 13, 2008 hearings on PED use.