Craig Calcaterra notes the Latin American signing scandals are leading to a call for an international draft:

And there certainly are problems down there and in other countries not subject to the draft. It's worth noting, however, that apart from addressing the kickbacks and other unseemliness, the powers that be in baseball have another, less-noble incentive to institute a draft, and that's to scale back the bonuses Dominican free agents have been getting in recent years. There's no escaping the fact that an international draft would work to lower salaries. And maybe that's worth doing if it does other good things. But in light of this obvious effect, you'd think that the writer would have asked someone from the union for a quote or two.

Eliminating the draft altogether would also lower prices, both for US and Latin players. Big bonuses go to the foreign free agents because of the supply of truly great players is small. Make them compete with US players, and they lose their leverage. Getting rid of the draft also prevents teams from losing out when a drafted player doesn't sign. A team's ability to walk away from a player if he's being difficult and go for another player of similar talents would benefit clubs that don't want to pay over slot.

As for the big market teams getting all the good players; they already do. MLB has tried for the last 60 years to limit the big teams, but they always find a way to game the rules. Maybe it's time to drop the rules and see what happens.

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Paul DePodesta discusses what the Padres look for in a pitcher.

The Seattle Mariners defeat the Oakland Athletics 4-3, finishing the season with 61 wins and 101 losses. That means, the Washington Nationals, who fell to the Phillies 8-3, finish with 102 losses, the worst record in the majors. They'll get the pleasure of picking first in the June 2009 draft. Small consolation.

Pedro Alvarez and the Pittsburgh Pirates settled their dispute over the timing of the signing of Alvarez's contract. Both sides appeared to conceed issues to get the job done. After all this work, Pedro better turn out to be a superstar.

Scott Boras claims the contract signed by Pittsburgh's first round pick, Pedro Alvarez, is invalid. From the quotes coming out of the Pirates camp, the dispute appears to be centered on timing:

"In fact, the contract between the Kansas City Royals and Eric Hosmer, another Boras client, was submitted to the office of the commissioner after our contract with Pedro was submitted," Coonelly said. "Mr. Boras is apparently satisfied with the $6 million bonus that he secured for Mr. Hosmer and has not challenged the validity of that contract. Mr. Boras has been informed that if he pursues a claim that our contract with Pedro was not timely, he puts Eric Hosmer's contract with Kansas City in jeopardy."

Hosmer, drafted immediately behind Alvarez, also received a $6 million signing bonus. No. 5 pick Buster Posey also got more from the Giants - $6.2 million - than Alvarez did from the Pirates.

Alaverz is now on the restricted list, meaning he can't play for anyone until this is settled. Of course, maybe Boras is right, and he does indeed want to put Hosmer's contract in jeopardy. I could imagine if Boras proved the timing was off, an arbitrator might make both players free agents.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog notes that with small market teams willing to pay big bucks for draft choices, the better teams have a harder time grabbing players who slip in the draft due to signability issues.

Sam Mellinger notes that fans who think Eric Hosmer is greedy should also admit that he's smart.

As can't-miss as we hear Hosmer is, take a look at other guys who went third overall in the draft. It's not a sure thing.

Oh, there's Evan Longoria and Troy Glaus and some other solid big leaguers.

But there's also Luis Montanez, Dewon Brazelton, and B.J. Wallace. Kyle Sleeth went in that spot five years ago, and he's already retired without ever making it to the big leagues.

Most people don't get a single chance to be set for life. Hosmer's lucky his talent gave him that chance, and smart for cashing in early.

With so many players signing above their slot value this season, and with the kickback scandal among Latin American free agents, it seems like a good time to re-examine the baseball draft.

Baseball instituted the draft in the mid 1960s as part of a long war between the rich and poor clubs over the distribution of talent. Before the draft, players were free agents, able to sign with the club of their choice, usually for a high bonus. The complaint was that the rich teams gained an advantage by being able to sign players for bigger bonuses. Once signed, the reserve clause controlled costs since teams could simply renew players if they didn't reach an agreement, and the only recourse for the player was not to play. So rich teams could pay out a high initial cost for the player, knowing that long term their costs were under control.

To keep the rich teams from signing all the good players, the league instituted bonus baby rules. High priced signees had to stay on the major league roster for a fixed amount of time. The rich teams found ways around this by getting some poor teams to sign the player, then trade that player to the rich team when he was major league ready.

Finally, MLB decided on a draft that would allow the worst performing franchises a chance at the best talent. It worked. The Oakland Athletics of the 1970s were a result of the ability to sign the best talent in the late 1960s without interference. The Mets of the mid 1980s were built on the draft picks resulting from their terrible performances in the late 1970s and early 1980s. All went well with the draft until the early 1990s.

That's when the Athletics realized they could sign unsignable players. Todd Van Poppel was going to go to college. Thirteen teams passed him by before the Oakland Athletics took him with their pick. They offered him a ton of money, and suddenly college wasn't that important. This was the start of a breakdown in the system. As signing bonuses went higher, better players kept slipping down the draft list as the poorer teams decided they couldn't afford to sign them. No longer were the teams that needed the talent getting a fair shot at the best talent.

In the early days of the draft, teams used their leverage as the only employer to sign drafted players cheaply. Now, amateurs use their leverage of limited supply to demand large bonuses. Limited supply seems to have won over restricted demand.

In addition, MLB teams started looking overseas for players. These players were not covered by the draft, so the highest bidders could sign the best players, often at a lower cost than if the player were drafted. Again, this gave teams with more money, who were able to put scouts and academies in places like the Dominican Republic an advantage. We're basically back to the wealthier teams getting the best talent.

My first preference would be to abolish the draft, but that's not going to happen nor would it be desirable. Injecting poor performing teams with good talent is good for the game. We want different teams rising into the playoffs and winning the World Series.

My proposal would be to give each team a shot at fifteen players per round over a few rounds (four or five). MLB would create a ranked list of players, order 1 to 200 (for five rounds). The teams with the first five picks in the current system get to try to sign one of the top 15 players on the list. The teams with the next five picks get to negotiate with players six through twenty. Teams with picks in the range 11-15 can talk to players 11 through 25, and so on. When the draft would return to the team with the number one pick, they will be competing with some of the best teams in the league for talent. At the end, the top five teams would be the only ones allowed to sign the five lowest ranked players in the draft. Anyone not ranked on the top 150 would be a free agent and can sign with any team.

If a player doesn't sign, he would be ineligible to sign anywhere until two drafts have passed (someone who didn't sign in 2009 can't be drafted or signed until 2012). So high school players who say they want to got to college get to spend three years getting an education and playing ball. Any team failing to sign one of the fifteen players assigned to their slot simply loses out on that round.

The master list would be drawn up from the draft lists of the 30 teams. They would submit a ranked list of players, 1-200. A Borda count would be used to rank the players, with this exception. Only the ballots for the team with the first five draft picks would determine the top five players in the draft. Five more teams would be added to determine the top ten, and so forth through the first round of the draft. That way, teams with low draft picks can't game the system to force good players to drop down.

This style of draft might not make for exciting television, but it would improve some current problems with the system.

• More choices for teams mean that they are more likely to sign some talented player. If a player like Aaron Crow asks for too much money, the team can simply move on to a more reasonable player.
• It gives the player more of a choice. Maybe the draftee wants to play close to home. Maybe there's more of an opening for his position on a particular team. He has a choice, and might be willing to take less money for these other considerations.
• Players can't fall that far through the draft. The five best players sign with the five worst teams or day are out of a job for three years. The World Champions would not have access to the best 25 players in the draft.
• Internationals players can easily be integrated into the system without without totally losing the free agent right they currently possess.

Overall, this plan should force good talent onto weak teams without handcuffing either side. I'm curious to hear what readers think of this plan.

The Reds sign Yonder Alonso, but Redleg Nation wonders if the Reds arent' too heavy with first basemen. The Reds think he can play third.

The Giants spent $6.2 million on catcher Buster Posey, twice as much as they've ever spent before.

The Pirates also broke the bank, signing the second overall pick, Pedro Alvarez, a power hitting third baseman to a $6 million contract.

Another third baseman, Eric Hosmer, signed with the Royals, although the terms haven't leaked out yet.

If you hear of any others, leave a note in the comments.

Update: Here's a complete round up from Keith Law.

The Orioles sign first round pick Brian Matusz for $3.2 million and a spot on the 40-man roster:

"I'm excited," Matusz said. "It's been a long summer, a lot of talks going on these last few weeks ... the last few days have been hectic. I haven't slept much, with all the traveling and trying to get a deal done. It's a relief now to have it done and start my pro career, and do what I've loved to do since I was a little kid -- play baseball."

He posted impressive college stats at San Diego, improving each season. He averaged 11.3 K per 9 there.

The Yankees first round pick decided that he would rather go to college than play professional baseball right now:

Cole is represented by the agent Scott Boras, who is known for asking for lucrative bonuses. But the Yankees have reached deals with first-round Boras clients the last two seasons, and the person said the failure to sign Cole had nothing to do with him.

Instead, Cole and his father had a change of heart and decided to go to college rather than negotiate with the Yankees.

"It was not a negotiating issue," the person said. "It was not a number issue."

Cole is a Yankees fan, which makes this even more interesting. Either this is a move to see just how high the Yankees go to lure him away from college or he really does value an education. Can't argue too much with that.

SportsAgentBlog runs down who remains unsigned from the June draft and who received the most money in each round. The unsigned players seem to have Scott Boras in common.

The Nationals took a week to think about it, but agree to pay above slot for catcher Adrian Nieto. If teams don't want to be held up for money by fifth round picks, abolish the draft and let everyone be an amatuer free agent. That way, there's lots more supply at that end of the talent scale. If a catcher wants too much money, you move on to someone else.

Sam Mellinger runs down the Royals options as the deadline approaches for signing Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick in this year's draft.

There's a little bit of a different feeling around Hosmer, who some think might be more willing to play college ball. Boras has always been a proponent of guys going to college. Some think that's just a negotiating position, and maybe it is to an extent, but I also think he believes it.

There's also the safety net that the Royals have built for themselves with fourth-round pick Tim Melville. A high school pitcher from suburban St. Louis, Melville is considered by many a first-round talent who slid mostly because of signability questions.

In a stark contrast to recent history (and another sign that this organization is moving in the right direction), the Royals took a chance on Melville and all signs are that a deal will be announced before the deadline.

If Hosmer went unsigned, the Royals would still get a first-round caliber talent out of this draft, plus have a compensation pick next year (either fourth or fifth, depending on if the Pirates sign No. 2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez), so it's not an absolute do-or-die.

Of course, getting both in the system makes the Royals better that much sooner.

Willie Nicklaus guest writes at SportsAgentBlog.com on the choices high school students face in deciding to turn pro or go to college. The decision date is only two weeks away.

The Oakland Athletics drafted Harvard pitcher Shawn Haviland in the 33rd round. He's now playing in Vancouver. Shawn drove me at my 25th reunion in 2007. Congratulations Shawn and good luck!

Jim Fuller signed with the Mets and will play for Brooklyn. Baseball Musings scouted him here.

A reader recommends this draft analysis by Matt Meyers.

Baseball Digest Daily sends word that Beckham will be he first pick in the draft. Does this mean the Rays get Posh, too? :-)

SportsAgentBlog looks at the sad case of Andrew Oliver.

DC Pro Sports Report is keeping track of different published mock drafts. It should be fairly easy to come up with a consensus from these lists. Just using the top three listed on the page, the top two picks should be T. Beckham and P. Alvarez, with Posey and Crow tied for third.

Via BBTF, The Fantasy Baseball Generals discuss how the draft killed amateur baseball in Puerto Rico. They also get into how the draft hurts the US:

What if we abolish the MLB amateur draft and make everyone a free agent to start their careers? Would the promise of a multi-million dollar contract right off the bat help MLB compete with the NBA and NFL for the country's top athletes? I believe that it would.

However, I am also not so naïve to think there is any way on this earth that MLB owners would approve such a plan. The party line would be that this would increase the large-market advantage that teams in New York and Los Angeles currently enjoy. But the real reason would be that teams would have to pay market rates, or considerably more than they are paying now, to get top players signed. And no owner would sign off on that.

Instead we will be stuck with the MLB amateur draft. And that means top athletes in this country choose other sports. It means the destruction of Puerto Rico as a baseball hot spot. And ultimately, for premier athletes, it means it is better to be born in the Dominican Republic than the United States, because you have more freedom to pick and choose where you ply your craft.

Baseball may be our national pastime but the way it treats amateur players in this country (and Canada and Puerto Rico) is downright un-American. It is time to end the MLB amateur draft.

I wrote a piece on the increase in foreign born players and the draft for Baseball Prospectus last year (subscription required). The gist was that the surge in foreign players happened after the draft was put in place. Every year we have to put up with Richard Lapchick complain about the lack of African-Americans in baseball, but he never comes to the obvious conclusion that the draft is what's keeping them out. The reason African American representation was so high forty years ago was that it was cheaper to sign black players. Once the draft came into being, that advantage went to foreign players, and it stayed there ever since. Let major league scouts sign 16-year-old kids to big contracts, and you'll see all kinds of Americans returning to play the game.

For those interested in the Rule 5 Draft, here's the list of players taken.

Tracy Ringolsby points out that Bud Selig may void some draft deals:

Teams set the stage so that virtually no drafted player will sign a contract before the Aug. 15 signing deadline next year, figuring if they wait, the teams will blink.

Commissioner Bud Selig has some avenues to discipline teams. He has discretion on joint money received from marketing, radio and television. He also can take a hard line on the legality of contracts players signed and void any prearranged deals.

A prime example would be left-handed pitcher Casey Crosby of Maple Park, Ill., a fifth-round draft choice of Detroit. He was quoted in newspaper accounts at the time of the draft saying he had a deal for $750,000 but would have to wait until Aug. 15 because it was higher than the $150,000 slot money. He signed this week for $748,000.

Baseball continues its history of trying to contain costs by overtly screwing the players. Baseball should abolish the draft and the minor league reserve system. If the majors want to control the costs of players coming into the system, the best way to do that is to make the supply of players as large as possible. How do you do that?

• No draft. Force US players to compete with Latin American players for jobs in the US. Right now, the draft makes the supply to each team tiny. With all amateurs free agents, if a prospect wants to go to college, it's, "See you later, call us if you change your mind," and on to someone else, even someone from outside the country who is will to work for a lot less.
• All minor league players become free agents at the end of their contracts. This is basically what Charlie Finley wanted to do in the mid 1970s with major league players, but the owners wouldn't hear of it. Marvin Miller was very afraid of this idea, because the huge supply of players every year would keep free agent salaries low. So, with the majority of minor leaguers becoming free agents every year (I assume top prospects would get major league contracts, or at least long term minor league contracts), and amateur players competing with established minor leaguers, prices for new players will again be dampened.

The argument against this will be the rich teams will get richer. Fine. But when has any rule implemented to try to stop rich teams from acquiring the best talent ever worked? The draft had some short term success, but once those players picked up agents and learned the could get more money by threatening not to sign, they started falling in the draft and rich teams got them anyway. By constantly shuffling the minors by making the number of players available to teams large every year, my at least other teams have a shot at getting good talent into the system.

Sports Agents Blog presents their final analysis of the draft signings. Basically, it pays to wait for the last minute, although overall the earlier deadline did seem to supress bonuses. Also, Casey Crosby's mother reminds me of my own.

On a related topic, if you'd like to listen to my radio show from last night, I spend about 1/2 an hour explaining why this is just another example of how MLB tries to screw players to control costs, and why the draft should be abolished.

Update: Jeff Quinton offers his take on the Wieters signing.

Getting back to Jordan's comments, the comments and calls to talk radio are already rolling in that say you have to give Angelos his due when something good happens if you criticize him when things go wrong. Some of the other Angelos-apologists and spin-machine generated sycophants are also saying that Angelos "stepped up" in making this deal.

If Angelos wants to continue to be the epitome of what's wrong with a meddling professional sports owner then let him. He's already surpassed Al Davis, Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder in that regard. I think most of the people critical of him when things go wrong wish that he would stop meddling or interfering in so many baseball matters. If the team needs to sue somebody for a slip-and-fall or for asbestos exposure, then Angelos can step in. Otherwise he just needs to provide the tools to his management people, who are actually apparently competent now with Andy MacPhail at the helm, to get the job done.

The deadline for signing amateurs drafted in June came and went last night, and all thirty first round picks signed. I'm waiting to see an analysis of how the new deadline moved signing bonuses. I'm also wondering if the players who went down to the wire did better than the players who signed early, and if signing early and getting into the system right away means better results long term (get to the majors quicker, become a free agent sooner).

The Devil Rays signed the number one pick in the draft:

Left-hander David Price, the No. 1 pick in baseball's amateur draft, agreed Wednesday to a six-year, $8.5 million contract with the Devil Rays, according to a major-league source.

The value of the deal could max out at $11.25 million if he remains in the major leagues for the entire length of contract.

Good for the Rays for spending money to improve.

The Yankees just signed Andrew Brackman, their first round pick. They're paying a lot of money for someone who might be hurt, a $3.3 million bonus:

However, that's the low-end guarantee. Even though Brackman might need elbow surgery-he's in Birmingham, Ala., right now to see Dr. James Andrews-the Yankees have signed him to a deal that could be worth up to $13 million when escalator clauses and team options are included.

It's a significant contract for the 6-foot-10 pitcher and Boras Corporation client, who went 6-4, 3.81 for the Wolfpack this spring in a career-high 78 innings. Brackman played basketball and baseball his first two seasons at N.C. State, limiting him to 71 innings combined. He appeared to wear down under the heavier workload this spring, withering down the stretch. However, at his best, Brackman had some of the best stuff and athleticism of any pitcher in the draft, touching 99 mph at times with his fastball and flashing a plus spike curveball.

Time will tell if this is a good move or not.

Roch Kubatko makes a case for the Orioles signing first round pick Matt Wieters.

But forget for a minute that my checking account will stay the same - nearly empty - no matter what the Orioles decide. They'd be investing in more than a switch-hitting catcher. They also could be investing in their second baseman and leadoff hitter, their No. 1 starter, and any free agents with even a passing interest in coming to Baltimore.

Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard are more than a little curious to see what the Orioles plan to do in the next few years before making a long-term commitment. Do they have a plan? Are they headed in the right direction? Are they really committed to doing whatever's necessary to field a winner - such as spending like the Steinbrenners?

You're scrutinized a little closer when your last winning season dates back to 1997.

As the deadline for signing draft picks nears, Baseball America looks at how the signing of 27th pick Rick Porcello to a huge contract is making it tougher to sign players at the top.

Hat tip, BTF Baseball Primer Newsblog.

SportsAgentBlog continues to monitor the signing bonuses of top draft choices.

SportsAgentBlog.com looks at the latest in signing bonuses.

SportsAgentBlog.com notes that the shorter window for drafted players to sign may be one of the reasons bonuses are lower this season.

The MLBPA is crying foul on signing bonuses, bringing up collusion:

MLB may be colluding to keep signing bonuses for amateur draft players down, according to a report by the Sports Business Journal.

SBJ is reporting that the MLBPA is investigating whether the league is threatening clubs with keeping signing bonuses down to a league-mandated level. Signing bonuses for amateur draft players are down approx. 10 percent lower than last season.

With revenue up, and free agent prices up, I would expect signing bonuses to be up as well. The problem is you never know when teams collectively decide that money is better spent on a proven player who is a free agent rather than a draft choice who may or may not work out. Still, my guess that crying collusion will be enough to scare MLB into making sure that it's not happening.

Last night after our arrival in Cambridge, we were being driven to our dorm. I'm talking to the driver, and it turns out he plays baseball for Harvard. Shawn Haviland was pitcher of the year in 2006, and he and two others on the Crimson probably will get drafted at some point in the next two days. Here's his bio.

And yes, he's read Baseball Musings. :-)

With the draft televised on Thursday, The Feed looks at reasons why teams may not want their moves to be so publicly visible.

River Avenue Blues interviews Keith Law about the upcoming MLB draft.

ESPN and Major League Baseball reached an agreement to broadcast the first round of the June draft:

For the first time in its history, the baseball entry draft will be aired live on ESPN2. Coverage will begin on Thursday, June 7th at 2 p.m. ET from Disney's Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Fla. The broadcast will end at 6 p.m. ET.

Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig said the telecast, "will give fans access to see this critical function of an organization's development. This is an idea whose time has come."

Each team's first round pick will be televised and all clubs will have a maximum of five minutes to make their selections.

Now if we could just get MLB to allow trading of draft picks, that would makes things really interesting. I was at the 1993 expansion draft, and it was a lot of fun. I have to think giving everyone a Disney World vacation figured in getting the broadcast.

Conor Glassey at Stop the Wave discusses the need for an MLB combine:

The National Football Scouting Combine got underway Thursday at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis and I can't help but wonder why such an event doesn't exist for baseball. During the five-day period of the combine, potential NFL draft picks will be tested physically, mentally and psychologically. They will be measured, photographed and interviewed. They will have X-rays taken, a urinalysis performed and will be examined by doctors from every team. Last year, Major League teams spent an average of $3.2 million to sign their draft picks...from the first three rounds. The price tag for top draft picks continues to rise and the first few guys selected last year received bonuses exceeding $3 million each. However, some special players, such as the Upton brothers, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Mark Prior, Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew, Gavin Floyd and Alex Gordon have received bonuses of $4 million, or more. And then there are some not-so-special players, like Joe Borchard, Josh Hamilton, Dewon Brazelton, Bryan Bullington and Eric Munson, who also received huge bonuses and ended up being busts. With escalating price tags for top draft picks, Major League baseball needs to establish a scouting combine as soon as possible. You wouldn't buy a car without kicking its tires and taking it for a test drive, would you?

Conor answers the possible objections to a combine as well, such as when to schedule the event. He believes this will save the teams money. However, that can only happen if they use the event to improve their draft choices. They still need to send scouts around the country to watch actual games. This would add an extra layer of cost to the process. So they save if they don't throw away money on Brien Taylor.

However, Conor I'd like to point out a big difference between baseball and football, and that's talent distribution. You can fire every player in the NFL, replace them with the next best set up players, and have a game that's indistinguishable from the current one. That's why the NFL strike failed and the union fell apart. But if baseball does the same thing, everyone notices it's a AAA game. Drafting NFL players is easy. There's a few superstars you'd like to get your hands on, but it's just not that difficult to find someone competent at a position.

That's probably due to the specialization of the game. Every position requires a unique set of skills. In baseball, every position player must be able to hit and field. Both quarterbacks and pitchers need to throw accurately, but baseball has ten times the number working regularly at the major league level.

The baseball draft is simply more of a crap shoot. The fact is MLB teams do a good job right now of drafting players. The higher a player is drafted, the more likely that person plays a productive career. I'm sure a combine could help the teams gather more information, and more information is useful. I'm not sure it would make that much of a difference, however.

Jeff Albert at the Baseball Analysts investigates what swings tell us about the future development of hitters.

Tom Krasovic notes the San Diego Padres stock piled draft picks for this June:

From 2000-04, the Padres had an average of 2.8 picks among the amateur draft's top 100 selections. Under CEO Alderson, that total has averaged five the past two years, and in seven months the Padres will have six to nine picks among the top 100 and as many as 11 before the fourth round.

"It's a great opportunity for us to upgrade the minor league system much more quickly than we otherwise would have been able to do," Alderson said.

Extra picks don't guarantee success. The Padres had seven of the top 80 picks in the 1999 draft and mostly whiffed. Alderson's excitement over the 1990 draft proved premature when his club, the Oakland Athletics, basically wasted eight top-100 draft picks, including four before the second round.

"You have to make good decisions," Alderson said.

Tom also wonders if the Padres will want to spend the money on the best picks available:

They had a big opportunity in 2004 when they had the No. 1 pick. San Diego's scouts recommended Stephen Drew or pitcher Jered Weaver. The club instead signed the less-expensive Matt Bush, and that was some 10 months after the Padres had saved nearly $2 million when their top pick of 2003, Tim Stauffer, admitted to a bum shoulder during negotiations.

Alderson, whose club will have until Aug. 15 to get all draftees signed, said the Padres are prepared to expand their draft budget by $4 million to $5 million. Further investing in their farm system, the Padres recently committed $8 million to the construction of a facility in the Dominican Republic.

It's a great opportunity for San Diego to build for the future.

Rays of Light looks at the first round of the 1990 draft in two separate posts. It's clear that early draft picks matter. Of the first 10 players picked, six went on to have meaningful major league careers. Seven of the next sixteen did, with only Mussina having a truly outstanding career.

Correction: Fixed second link.

Ben Kabak links to a post that claims draft compensation for free agents is out of the new collective bargaining agreement. Maury Brown relies on unnamed sources for this news.

I remember something like this happening the last time the CBA was up for renewal. There was talk of getting rid of it, but in the end it stayed. (If I could find my copy of Moneyball, I might be able to confirm that.) I would think that small market teams would fight such change.

Ben thinks this is a positive:

As we learn more details about this welcome change, it will be interesting to see how teams approach the trade deadline next year. Will fringe competitors be less willing to land soon-to-be free agents if they're not getting draft picks in return? Will we see fewer competitors after July 31st or more? While this deal fixes a great inequity of the current draft system, I'm also interested to see how teams respond to these new rules at the trade deadline.

I'm torn on the issue. Compensation allows teams like the Athletics to keep their good players until they become free agents and still get something in return. On the other hand, a free market in players is probably a better system. If they're scraping compensation, I hope they also scrap the system of offering arbitration and let players negotiate with their former team just like the other 29.

Royals Authority rounds up the news on Luke Hochevar. The Royals are going to sign him to a major league contract:

We all remember the Alex Gordon negotiations of last year when the Royals would not budge on their long-time insistence that they do not sign draft picks to major league deals.

Credit to the Royals for deciding to relax what used to be thought of as a rigid rule and get the deal done.

According to the release, Hochevar will sign the contract on Saturday will and be placed on the Royals 40-man roster. He is only the fourth No. 1 overall pick in the last 20 years to sign a Major League contract, joining Delmon Young (2003), Pat Burrell (1998) and Alex Rodriguez (1993).

I've liked all of Dayton Moore's moves so far. No slam dunks, but bit by bit he's improving the organization.

I'm not surprised to see bud Selig is upset over the signing of fifth round pick Jeff Samardzija.

Justin Upton, the No. 1 pick in 2005, received a $6.1 million bonus from Arizona, the record for a player signed by the team drafted him. Baseball America, citing unnamed sources, reported Commissioner Bud Selig was upset by the Samardzija bonus and became personally involved in the negotiations because the Cubs have upset the slotting structure for signing bonuses, giving out money no first-round pick has ever received to a player selected in the fifth round.

Why should the commissioner care who signs for what money? Because the draft is one of the many rules passed over the decades to try to prevent the Yankees from winning every year. The whole idea is to give the worst teams access to the best talent. The problem is, the talent figured out how to make money from the system. They declare before hand that they'll demand a big signing bonus, so some of the worst teams pass them over because they don't want to give out that much money. Now with a fifth round pick getting lots of moolah, the first rounders will demand even more.

The answer to this problem, is fairly easy. Allow teams to trade or sell their picks. The team with the #1 pick owns a very valuable asset. Right now, if the person they want is unsignable by them, the asset loses value. But if they could use it to trade for other players, or even cash, they could still come out ahead. The worst teams aren't necessarily getting the best players right now. While allowing trading wouldn't change that, at least the worst teams would be getting something they judge as equal value.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun looks at the 2001 draft and decides the Twins made the correct first pick after all.

Five years after the draft, Prior, 25, is on the disabled list for the fifth time since July 2003. He hasn't pitched for the Cubs this season and has made just 48 starts since that outstanding 2003 campaign. And Mauer? Entering the weekend, he was leading the majors in hitting in just his second full season. He won the most recent American League Player of the Week honor. Only 23, he is believed to be just the third player in baseball history to reach base four times in five consecutive games. He is also among the league leaders in throwing out runners, and is continually praised by his teammates.

"He's technically sound at almost every facet of the game," Ryan said. "Mechanically, he has a beautiful swing. Receiving, he's soft and quiet. At the plate, he is calm and quiet. Throwing, his ball is true with velocity. He's still learning, believe me."

Prior returns to the big leagues today, and still has plenty of time to prove he should have been #1. Mauer won't make it easy for him, however.

Update: Paul Sullivan details Prior's prior comebacks.

The Baseball Zealot notices a couple of draft picks in trouble early.

Chris Constancio at The Hardball Times graphs the tendancies of team to draft college vs. high school, and high school pitchers vs. college pitchers. (Make sure you read the explanation of the first chart, since it doesn't make sense at first glance.) The Dodgers and Braves seem to be bucking a trend by taking high school pitchers. It might be that since a large number of teams are concentrating on college pitchers, those two teams have a market they can exploit.

Kyle Drabek and Preston Mattingly, both sons of former major leaguers, were taken high in the draft today. I must be getting old, because I remember both their fathers coming up to the majors.

I'm watching the draft at MLB.com with the Draft Caster and I'm impressed with how fast it's moving. Lots of pitching taken so far. The most interesting pick is Washington, who took outfielder Chris Marrero. The interesting thing is that there was no scouting report prepared for this player on the MLB site. Does this mean he was off the radar?

I'm not a draft expert, nor do I really care to be. However, John Sickles is very knowledgable in this area, so be sure to visit his site today for his insights.

Did you know?

The Washington Nationals' scouting director went into each of the last three First-Year Player Drafts ranking talent alongside another tool: signability.

He came away with much more.

In the last three drafts, the Nationals took third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, left-handed reliever Bill Bray and closer Chad Cordero in the first round. All three were close to big-league-ready out of college, signed quickly and are now playing with the Nationals.

Washington is the only team in the majors with its last three top draft picks in the majors.

That's a very good record. But this year, the Nationals are on the cusp of having new money behind them:

"Our hands were tied as far as taking the high-ceiling high school players because of budget issue," Brown said. "As far as some of the high school kids you have to overpay if you are going to draft them. Not having an owner, it was really difficult to say who you would be able to overpay."

That won't be the case this season.

Why? The strategy they've used so far worked really well. They didn't need to spend a lot of money to sign these players and they're all having a quick impact on the big league team. That sounds like an intelligent drafting strategy to me.

The Baseball Zealot provides useful links if you'd like to follow tomorrow's draft on-line.

The Yankees invited a number of college players to workout on Thursday, including Jeff Maier:

The Yankees invited Jeffrey Maier to a workout a decade after he reached over the right-field wall and stopped a Baltimore Orioles outfielder from catching a Derek Jeter blast.

"It's been a very exciting week," said Maier, who graduated from Wesleyan University Sunday and was batting, fielding and running bases at the House that Ruth Built on Thursday.

Via Deadspin, Wood on Sports wonders what happened to Brien Taylor.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks reached an agreement with their #1 pick today. Justin Upton sets the bonus record for a drafted player:

Justin Upton, the 18-year-old shortstop who was the top pick in the 2005 major league amateur draft, agreed to a minor league contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks that includes a $6.1 million signing bonus payable over five years.

Justin is the younger brother of B.J. Upton. Both received tremendous paydays without ever stepping onto a major league field. This is the second big shortstop prospect the Diamondbacks drafted recently:

Upton follows another top young shortstop, Stephen Drew, who is expected to play for Triple-A Tucson in his second season in the Arizona organization.

No one is ever stuck at shortstop. Given that the position is at the high skill end of the defensive spectrum, you can always leave the better fielder at short and move the better hitter to another position. A team has a lot more options with too many shortstops than they have with too many first basemen.

A New Mexico reader sends an article about governor Bill Richardson embellishing his baseball credentials:

What you won't find in the record books is a baseball distinction that's been attached to Richardson's name for almost 40 years: that he was drafted to play pro baseball by the Kansas City Athletics.

Publications ranging from The New York Times to the New Republic to the Albuquerque Journal have reported that as fact. So have USA Today, Time magazine and National Review.

In the just-published "2006 Almanac of American Politics," these words appear in a history of Richardson's career: " ... in 1967 was drafted by the Kansas City Athletics."

In preparing a story earlier this year on Richardson's baseball past, the Journal was unable to confirm in any authoritative record that he had been drafted.

Richardson said he believed that he had been, based on conversations with scouts and other sources, and asked for additional time to find proof.

But in a written statement provided to the Journal last week, he said, "After being notified of the situation (by Toby Smith) and after researching the matter ... I came to the conclusion that I was not drafted by the A's."

"However, as the Journal's reporting should reflect, I was actively scouted by several Major League teams ... "

As far as I can tell, Richardson was a very good high school and college pitcher, and struck out a ton of batters. The story appears to be that he would have been drafted out of high school, but his father insisted they younger Bill go to college. Since teams were reluctant to draft someone who wasn't going to sign, Richardson was passed over.

I love this circular thinking:

Steve Vaughn, a teammate who was drafted, said he thought Richardson "clearly was a prospect" and "remembered hearing" his teammate had been offered a contract by Kansas City.

Being offered a contract isn't the same as being drafted. Teams approach players before the draft and try to head off negotiations with agents by offering the player a contract if he's drafted.

That was 38 summers ago, and Richardson was playing for the Cotuit (Mass.) Kettleers, a team comprised of standout college players.

The Kettleers published a 25-cent handout they issued to fans.

Next to Richardson's name on the faded program are four brief lines, and the words "Drafted by K.C."

"When I saw that program in 1967," Richardson said, "I was convinced I was drafted. And it stayed with me all these years."

So Richardson sees his name next to "was drafted", and believes it to be true. But where did Cotuit get the information?

At Richardson's urging, the Journal talked to Arnold Mycock, who was the general manager of Richardson's Cape Cod League team in 1967.

Mycock, 82, and living in Cotuit, Mass., has a copy of that 1967 program. He said information on the bios came from the players or their college coaches.

Nick Furlong, a pitcher for the Kettleers in 1967, later drafted by three major league teams, said he filled in his Cotuit bio sheet himself and sent it to the club.

College athletes typically fill out a biographical form to help a school's athletic department disseminate information to a student's hometown media.

On the bio sheet Richardson completed for Tufts in his junior year, he penciled words "Drafted by Kansas City (1966), LA (1968)."

So what Richardson likely saw in the program either came from his own hand, or came from Tufts relating what Richardson had told them! He believed he was drafted after seeing it in the program, but he had supplied the information! (There is also no evidence Richardson was drafted by the Dodgers in 1968.)

The person sending the link to the story believes Richardson is going to run for president in 2008, and wonders if this will be a campaign issue. It seems anything can become a campaign issue, so I have no idea. It could very well be that as a young man Richardson was confused by what constituted being drafted. In 1967, the baseball draft was only three years old. Before that, players were basically free agents until they signed with a team, often netting large bonuses to sign. The model of direct signings was the model Richardson grew up with, so he could have made a pattern recognition mistake. The baseball draft was always oqaque, with only the first round picks made public. Hypothetically, a scout saying, "We're going to draft you if you're willing to sign a contract," could be remembered as, "We've drafted you. Are you willing to sign a contract?"

Of course, thinking he was drafted twice makes that explanation a little less plausible. So will this be an issue? I suspect reporters like Toby Smith, who did a great job tracking down this exaggeration, will start looking for other embellishments. If there's more, it will be an issue. If this is the only one, it's likely an honest mistake.

Update: Joel Jacobsen of New Mexico sent me the link to the article. I hadn't heard back from Joel about using his name when I published the original post.

Royal Authority is very happy that Kansas City signed their first round pick.

The good news here is that Gordon will make it to Arizona for the last few weeks of the Fall Instructional League. We were hoping he would sign quickly so he could get some seasoning at AA Wichita. That didn’t happen and now he’s missed a half a season of organized ball, so he’s got some catching up to do. And fast.

Mark Teahen must be looking over his shoulder.

Dan Agonistes notes a big positive for the Cubs future:

First round draft choice Mark Pawelek has pitched 12 scoreless innings thus far in pro baseball in the Arizona Rookie league. He's also fanned 19, walked 6, and given up 5 hits.

The bad news: He's 0-2 as he's given up 3 unearned runs, and the Cubs the rookies behind him are not hitting. Let's hope Mark's career isn't made up of lots of close games lost on defensive miscues.

The first round of draft picks can be found here. Thirteen pitchers taken with the first 30 picks, none with the first five. The first high school pitcher was taken 16th overall by Florida. I'm not up on the draft at all. I'm more interested in who actually becomes a major leaguer than who might become a major leaguer. But John Sickels has it all covered for you.

Update: From the Sickels comments, it looks like Baseball America got the first 18 picks right. What a great job!

In the wake of the last minute signings of Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew, Baseball Analysts looks at way the draft might be changed.

1. Adopt an NBA/NFL-style pay scale for first round draft slots.

2. Allow teams the right to trade draft picks.

3. Open up the negotiations to more than one team (perhaps an American and a National League club could each have the right to negotiate with first round draft picks).

4. Keep the system the same for high school players and underclassmen but allow seniors the right to negotiate with all teams.

5. Disallow the right to a supplemental draft slot for teams that fail to sign their first round picks.

I really like suggestions 2 and 3. Trading draft choices makes perfect sense for teams that are cash strapped and can't afford to sign a big name prospect. I also like the idea of competition for players embodied in 3. It gives a player at least a chance to find his fair market value without having to sit out a year.

Rany Jazayerli at Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) finds that since 1991, the gap between drafting college and high school players has closed. Before 1991, you receieved a much better return on drafting college players. Since then, however, that advantage has almost completely disappeared. It's not clear why that has happened.

I'm man enough to admit it: I'm completely befuddled by these results. Not only did the gap between the value of college and high-school players shrink to almost nothing in the 1990s; this has occurred even though the pendulum swung back towards taking more high-school players.

In my 10 years of writing for Baseball Prospectus, this is the most surprising conclusion I have ever reached in an analytical study. I suspected that the advantage enjoyed by collegiate players had diminished, but I didn't anticipate the degree to which it has. And I certainly did not suspect that high-school players would jump in value relative to college picks even as teams were drafting more high school players, not less. This seems to violate the basic principles of economics. Prices don't drop when demand goes up, but in this case the "price" of high-school talent--the difference between the value of the draft pick and the return on the player drafted--has gone up even though the demand for high-school players has also increased.

I wonder if the increase in the number of teams from 26 to 30 has anything to do with it? This has created more jobs at a time when the US population for that age player was bottoming (the baby bust of the late 1960's through the 1980's). That would create fewer college players to draft, so the teams had to turn to the high schools.

I'm not a draft fan. Sam Ross Jr. wonders why we don't get a nationwide telecast instead of just streaming video on the web. (Aside: someday, I dare say, a streaming world wide webcast will be more valuable than an ESPN broadcast.) I have to say I agree with Lloyd McClendon on this one:

"When they get here, they're very important," McClendon said, his reference being to the Pirates' major-league roster. "Until they get here, they really don't mean much to me."

That's not to say the draft isn't important. A good drafting strategy can turn teams around rather suddenly. Long losing stretches combined with good draft picks produced the Mets of the mid-eighties, the A's of the late 80's and the Twins of today. It's also likely to keep the A's winning as various great free-agents leave.

For me, however, it would be about a group of players I know little about, most of whom will not have an immediate impact on their teams. I'll wait to see who pans out, and let the other experts in the baseball world inform me on who did a good job.