Jerry Manuel is thinking of switching his outfield platoon from leftfield to rightfield, sitting Ryan Church against lefties:

Manuel previously had been consistent in saying Murphy and righty-hitting Fernando Tatis would platoon in left field, while Church was his right fielder. But Sunday Manuel expressed more faith in Murphy than Church against southpaws. So the manager suggested Murphy may see action against many lefthanders, too, while Church may be the one to find his at-bats taken away by Tatis.

"I kind of see Murphy being a little better hitter right now, so Tatis could go that way," Manuel said, referring to Tatis being used in right field against southpaws. "It all depends on how well they're doing. If they're not getting hits, they're not going to play."

Both Church and Tatis have a long track record against lefties, and Tatis is clearly the better hitter.

With an extended spring training, the extra work by Twins starters might allow Ron Gardenhire to go north with eleven pitchers instead of twelve. I'd love to see staffs get back down to ten pitchers some day.

Jerry Manuel is thinking of batting Luis Castillo in the leadoff spot with Jose Reyes batting second. At this point in their career the two own similar OBAs. Reyes, however, possesses more power, which is more useful with someone on base in front of him.

TangoTiger posts a table of runs and RBI by lineup position and event (single, double, etc.). (Actual table here.) I think the runs column makes a very good case for batting your worst hitter eighth and a secondary leadoff man ninth.

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the strategy of a switch hitter facing a switch pitcher.

Joe Torre still loves the sacrifice.

The Mariners-Blue Jays game ended in interesting fashion on Monday night. In the top of the tenth, the Mariners loaded the bases, with one out, bringing up Miguel Cairo. Cairo executed a perfect suicide squeeze, and the Mariners took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the inning. The Blue Jays then loaded the bases with none out. Rather than playing for the tie and keeping the infielder back for the double play, McLaren pulled the entire infield in:

Lyle Overbay grounded into a double play, first to home to first, followed by a walk and a flyball by David Eckstein. Game over.

So McLaren, if you will, played small ball in each of the bases loaded situation and it payed off for him. The rule is you play for the win on the road, but he greatly increased the chance of a two run single to try to cut down a run at the plate. The strategy worked, the Mariners gain a rare victory, and the Blue Jays move into a three-way tie for last place in the AL East.

I notice Micah Owings is batting in the eighth slot today. The managers who do that usually are trying to get a second leadoff hitter in the ninth spot. However, it appears that Melvin simply feels that Owings is a better hitter than Romero.

Given the way Owings is pitching in the first, he might not get a chance to bat. He's already allowed two hits, a walk and a run.

After promising us a lineup shakeup, Leyland did very little.

Catcher Ivan Rodriguez is now hitting in the ninth spot.

Third baseman Carlos Guillen is now hitting third and new leftfielder Gary Sheffield is in the six-hole for tonight's game against the Red Sox at Comerica Park.

La-di freakin' da. The biggest move is that Jacque Jones days as a Tiger are near an end as they team designated him for assignment.

Jim Leyland vowed to shake up the Tigers batting order tonight to try to get the offense going again. The rumor is that Granderson will move into the middle of the order:

Granderson hit 23 homers last season, and he now has five homers in the 1 1/2 weeks since he returned from the disabled list. When Leyland has spoken about Granderson someday hitting in the middle of the lineup, he has mentioned how as Pirates manager he had Barry Bonds hit leadoff for the first four seasons of his big-league career before he moved him to the middle of the order.

Granderson's last 23 homers have been solo homers. Leyland might be eager to see Granderson get more at-bats with runners on base.

Leyland moved Bonds? I remember it, Barry lost his arbitration suit before the 1990 season because he didn't drive in enough runs. He then asked to be moved to the middle of the lineup so he could basically make more money. I really don't think Jim woke up one day and said, "Barry Bonds should bat fifth."

If indeed Leyland moves Granderson lower in the order, the Lineup Analysis Tool will agree with him. Based on Tigers stats through Sunday, Guillen should lead off and Granderson should bat fourth. I wonder how close Leyland's lineup tonight will be to this model?

Here's another reason teams shouldn't carrry twelve pitchers.

For the second day in a row, the Athletics put Kurt Suzuki in the leadoff spot. In the two games he's reached base by a hit or walk four times and scored three runs. He has the highest OBA on the team among regulars with very little power. It makes perfect sense to bat him first, and so far it's worked out. The A's won 13-2 last night and 6-5 this afternoon.

The Brewers are flipping Braun and Fielder in the order today, at the players request.

Update: The flip doesn't get a chance to make a difference as Gabe Kapler hits his fourth home run of the season to make the score 2-0 Brewers. In his last two season with Boston he only hit three.

Jim Leyland batted Ivan Rodriguez in the leadoff spot, hoping to improve the catcher's selectivity:

"I think it pumps him (Rodriguez) up a little bit, (besides) being a good thing for our team," Leyland said. "You've got a Hall of Famer like that who went to the eighth hole without complaining. That's not the easiest thing to do, so I think it (batting leadoff at times) is good for him psychologically.

"If he continues to lay off bad balls, there's a chance I'll lead him off a lot against left-handers."

Ivan was never that selective a hitter. However, Granderson was really terrible against lefties in 2007. While Rodriguez hit .302 vs. lefties in 2007, he did not draw one walk. Still, I have no problem platooning batting order slots, I just think Leyland could find someone better than Pudge to put at the top of the order.

Patrick Sullivan looks at what American League teams did on and after 3-0 counts in 2007. Unless you're the Mariners, it's not a bad pitch to hit. It's also a very good pitch to take.

Cobra Brigade breaks down what's wrong with Lou Piniella's decision to bat Soriano second. The idea is to get Soriano to run less until his legs heal:

The fact that Soriano's legs are bothering him doesn't bother me as much as the fact that A) he's going to be hitting in a spot in the lineup where he's supposed to be able to take pitches and move runners over, B) that Soriano is going to be a double play threat anytime Theriot is on base because his legs are bad, which leads me to.....C) this means that Ryan Theriot is going to be leading off this season...he of the .326 ob % and fading stamina last season. The silver lining in all of this, if there is one, is that as long as Soriano hits 35+ homers and drives in 100+ runs, his contract still sort of makes sense in the grand scheme of things. Besides that, this really makes no sense at all.

It seems to me that the solution to moving Soriano out of the lead-off spot is to move Kosuke Fukudome to the second spot and move Soriano to fifth in the lineup....or move Derrek Lee to the second spot, have Aramis Ramirez hit third, Fukudome fourth and Soriano fifth. That way you can get the most out of Soriano's power, which seems to be his last offensive asset, while not allowing his patented streakiness to crush any rallies the Cubs might have at the top of the order.

Soriano's strengths and weaknesses make him a better fifth hitter than a leadoff man, but he doesn't seem to bat as well in that slot. Teams are forced to bat him leadoff, where he doesn't belong, or suffer poor performance as Texas did.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

It's official, Jason Kendall is going to bat ninth for the Brewers:

"We've done studies on this," Yost said. "It's not just that we come up one day and say, 'You know, Jason Kendall's gonna hit ninth.'

"You've had a lot of smart people looking at it and crunching numbers and seeing if, numbers-wise, it made sense."

Those smart people decided that batting Kendall ninth, a departure from the conventional baseball wisdom of batting the pitcher in the final spot, did make sense. They thought it gave the Brewers an edge, which should translate into an opportunity to score more runs.

"More runs means more wins," Yost said. "Sometimes, you've gotta get outside the box a little bit."

Nice to see Yost willing to try something new.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why it's a good idea to bat the pitcher eighth.

Tony La Russa will bat his pitchers eighth this season:

La Russa believes the move gives the Cardinals more opportunities to score runs. Having a position hitter in the nine hole makes No. 3 hitter Albert Pujols more like a cleanup hitter without dropping him in the lineup, which could possibly sacrifice an at-bat.

Given that Ned Yost said earlier that he would consider batting Kendall ninth, I'm working on why this makes sense for my next SportingNews.com article.

South Side Sox is afraid Jerry Owens will lead off for the White Sox in 2008 because he bunts well.

If the White Sox are going to be the championship team that the White Sox brain trust thinks they can be, one of the main reasons will be that Carlos Quentin and Josh Fields successfully made the leap to become very good offensive players. Jerry Owens at his very best might be an average center fielder, and as such, his presence as de facto leadoff hitter would seem to limit the teams playoff hopes versus a team with a fully-realized Carlos Quentin in the lineup.

Owens major league OBA is better than Quentin's. Carlos, however, was a monster in the minors while Owens is living up to his minor league numbers. The upside for Quentin in both getting on and hitting for power is way above what Owens might do.

Ned Yost is thinking of batting the pitcher eighth and Jason Kendall ninth:

But one of the most interesting of possible orders would have Ryan Braun batting second, a pitcher batting eighth and catcher Jason Kendall batting ninth. This idea isn't set yet, and it may not ever be used. It is just one of a flurry of ideas whizzing around inside the skipper's head. St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has done this some during the last few seasons.

Yost's reasoning is that he wants Braun to have more plate apperances, but still be able to have guys on in front of him. So with Kendall's ability to see pitches and get on base, it would essentially translate to Braun still batting third while racking up about 40 more plate appearances, as stats show. In this lineup, Prince Fielder would bat third in the order, but it would be like having him in the clean-up slot.

Notice that Kendall batting ninth is what's suggested by the Lineup Analysis Tool, although that tool puts Fielder second. Nice to see Yost thinking outside the box.

Thanks to Tom Goyne for the link.

Joe Aiello looks at who should be leading off for the Cubs.

Trey Hillman raises the possibility of batting Ross Gload third:

Hillman views Mark Teahen as the most likely No. 3 hitter but admits to giving serious thought to using Ross Gload in that role.

"I want backup options," Hillman said, "and I like Ross Gload, although he doesn't have a lot of experience (in that role). I like his swing."

...

"Now that I've seen his swing for a couple of days," he said, "just throw the stats out. I've seen his swing. It's short. It's compact. He doesn't have the pop of an Alex Gordon, nor the pop of a (Jose) Guillen, nor the pop of a (Mark) Teahen.

"But I like the swing, and I like the slug that comes with it -- the doubles. I'm not announcing him as our No. 3 hitter. But it's in the mix."

This sort of makes we wonder if Hillman has looked at some of the lineup models that show the number three slot isn't as important as it seems to be in the traditional lineup. The Lineup Analysis Tool puts Gload third in a few of its top twenty lineups for the Royals.

Voros McCracken notes base running isn't the problem for the White Sox this year. He also describes how the White Sox can build a team in which base running does matter.

Lou Piniella unveiled his opening day lineup yesterday. He's put two low OBA guys in front of his sluggers. Now, I know lineups don't matter that much, but why wouldn't you want DeRosa hitting second instead of Theriot?

Trey Hillman discusses his thoughts on the Royals lineup:

Sure, spring training is still more than two months away, and the roster could still undergo some major changes before the Royals convene in Surprise, Ariz. Also, Hillman's evaluations, he acknowledges, are culled primarily from scrutinizing DVDs.

None of that matters, does it?

Not to Hillman, whose initial plans include keeping David DeJesus in the leadoff role, anchoring Jose Guillen as the cleanup hitter and having Alex Gordon bat seventh.

That puts Gordon, Hillman insists, in an often-undervalued role.

"That seven hole seems to come up a lot in inning-ending situations," Hillman said. "If he makes an out, that just crushes you because you've got eight, nine and one in the next inning.

"You don't want the one guy coming up with the possibility of being the third out in an inning. I want to get to that No. 8 guy (the previous inning) so we can get to No. 2. You want to grind it out so you can get back and turn (the lineup) over again.

Batting with two out comes up just about as often for the six and eight hitters. Starting with the 2000 season, number six hitters saw 33.0% of their plate appearances with two out, number seven hitters 33.4%, number eight hitters 33.2%. It strike me there's a bit of flawed logic here. If you want your lineup to turn over often, then you want to get the most PA to your high OBA hitters. The fewer outs they make, the more every one else gets to hit. Number six hitters come to bat 2.8% more than number seven hitters, so getting Gordon more AB in the six hole should extend the offense just as well.

From the article, here's how Hillman's lineup looks (I'm assuming Gload bats sixth). It's a good lineup, scoring 5.013 runs per game. The best lineup for this group of players scores 5.104 per game, and there's only a 0.3 run difference between the best and worst lineup Hillman can construct. If you flip Gordon and Gload, it makes no difference.

Clint Hurdle employed an unusual double switch last night:

When he brought in Brian Fuentes to pitch the eighth, he pulled a double switch with center fielder Cory Sullivan, even though that meant Fuentes, who went into the seventh spot in the lineup, would hit before Sullivan.

With Philadelphia having only one left-handed reliever, J.C. Romero, Hurdle wanted to put Phillies counterpart Charlie Manuel in a bind.

Had he put Sullivan into the seventh slot, the Rockies would have had three left-handed hitters in a four-batter sequence.

As it turned out, Romero did come in to face Todd Helton with one out in the eighth and got Helton to fly out. After Garrett Atkins singled, left-handed-hitting Brad Hawpe bounced a single off the glove of diving second baseman Chase Utley.

Then, instead of having Sullivan coming up, Hurdle was able to call on the right-handed-hitting Baker, and Baker delivered the game-winning single in his postseason debut.

A big difference in the series was the performance of the bullpens. The Rockies showed that their relief corps is a force, allowing just one earned run in 11 2/3 innings of work. They allowed six hits and four walks while striking out ten. The Phillies were in for 9 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. And that doesn't include the Lohse's entrance with the bases loaded in which get gave up the grand slam to Matsui. Three of those runs get charged to the starter.

Finally, congratulations to Kaz Matsui on a tremendous series. He didn't turn out to be what the Mets expected, but in Colorado he's improved to a useful player. During the regular season in 2007, he hit much better in the day than at night, and with two day games in this series he just pounded the Phillies. He collected five hits, four for extra bases, including two triples and a grand slam.

The NLCS pits Mountain Standard Time versus Mountain Daylight Time. It also means the team with the highest run differential meets a team with a team outscored by their opponents. The action starts Thursday.

Albert Pujols was a late scratch for the Cardinals tonight. La Russa decided to replace him with Miguel Cairo. So where does he bat? Third of course. And he just knocked in a run.

I'm going to bang my head against a wall for a few minutes.

Bud Black employs the Gene Mauch strategy of bunting in the first inning to score one run. That gives the Padres the early lead, but I'm to see it against a pitcher with an ERA over 10. Big innings are an odds on favorite with someone like that on the mound.

Jason Giambi pinch hits for Molina, hitting the wall to put runners at second and third with one out in the eighth. Posada is the DH, but he's putting on catching gear, which means the Yankees would lose the designated hitter in a 1-1 game.

Damon breaks his bat and grounds out, holding the runners.

Update: It may not matter now. Jeter hits a home run into the third row of the Monster Seats and the Yankees lead 4-1. Schilling pitches a great game, but probably was left in one batter too long.

Update: Posada does indeed come in to catch. Chamberlain is in the lineup batting ninth.

Update: Mike Lowell homers off Joba Chamberlain to make the score 4-2. That's the first home run and first earned run allowed by Chamberlain. Lowell's really taken advantage of Fenway this season, with 13 of his 19 home runs coming at home.

Athletics fans are celebrating the first squeeze play in seven years.

I like the fact that Jim Leyland is treating this game against the Mariners tonight as a playoff game. With a 3-1 lead, Nate Robertson got into trouble with two outs in the second. The Tigers got the bullpen going as Nate worked his way out of the jam, allowing just one run. Leyland, however was ready to pull his starter if it looked like the Mariners might take a lead.

It starts innocently enough. I'll just use that extra pitcher when we don't have a day off for a couple of weeks. Before you know it, pitchers are complaining if they're made to pitch out of turn. And then, everyone has six-man rotations. Just say no to more starters.

I've never quite understood why, when pitching is bad, teams add more bad pitchers. Maybe they believe that the more they put on the roster, the more chance they have of getting lucky with one. To me, the opposite should be true. The fewer pitchers on the roster, the less chance you have of getting unlucky with a bad one.

Are there other things in life like this? I know people and businesses often try to fix problems by throwing more money at them, but eventually those don't work and you give up. Teams just keep moving down the path to more and more pitchers working less and less.

When the Red Sox picked up Eric Gagne, one reason bandied about was to shorten the game to six innings. With three pitchers capable of closing in the pen, one could pitch the seventh, one the eighth and one the ninth. So last night, Curt Schilling comes off the DL, pitches six strong innings, allowing two runs while striking out five, the comes out for the seventh. He then gives up a homer and a double. His pitch count was low, so I understand him starting the seventh, but wasn't the start of the seventh the perfect time to go to Gagne? On top of that, once you take him out with a man on second, isn't bringing Gagne a better move than Tavarez, who allowed the insurance run to score? Or is Francona only allowed to pitch Gagne with a lead so he can get a hold?

On another note, that insurance run scoring brought out the rule book:

Schilling departed in the seventh trailing, 3-2, after bantamweight Maicer Izturis hit his third home run of the season to open the seventh and slumping catcher Jeff Mathis (0 for 18) doubled. A fourth run was charged to Schilling when Reggie Willits, facing reliever Julian Tavarez, bunted Mathis to third and Chone Figgins lined a ball to Moss, who juggled it a couple of times before securing it in leather.

That ignited a mini-controversy, as Mathis had left well before Moss had full control of the ball, but the argument mounted by Francona didn't last much longer than the one Francona initiated after Ramirez was ejected.

The applicable section of the rulebook was Section 2.00, in which this stipulation is added under the definition of a catch: "Runners may leave their bases the instant the first fielder touches the ball." That would guard against outfielders deliberately breaking into a circus act, rather than the inadvertent performance by Moss.

The Angels win 4-2 and extend their AL West lead to four games over Seattle.

Tony La Russa started batting the pitcher eighth on Saturday. Here's what the lineup analysis tool says La Russa should use as a lineup. At least Tony is once again trying something that has some mathematical basis. What the Cardinals really need to do is get younger, however, as two of their three great players are tanking together.

In the previous post, I wondered if players like Curtis Granderson who don't get on base much but do pick up extra-base hits were useful as leadoff men. My gut has always been with players like Granderson and Soriano that their power was more useful lower in the lineup.

I'm going to look at how OBA and Slugging Percentage affect two stats, runs scored per game played (RperG) and runs scored per time on base (RperOB) for players batting in the leadoff slot. Note that OB for this study is hits+bb+hbp. I'm looking at players batting lead off since 2000, with at least 500 PA in the #1 slot. There were 90 such players found.

First we'll take a graphical look at these two stats as a function of OBA. (Click on the graph for a larger image.)

Getting on base greatly increases your ability to score score runs, but it has little to do with specific instances of scoring runs. Now look at the these two stats as a function of slugging percentage.

Notice that a point of slugging percentage does less than a point of OBA to increase scoring. But the more a player hits for power, the more likely they are to score once they reach base.

So given a team with poor leadoff choices, a power hitter in the slot can make up for his lack of getting on base by scoring more often once he is on. Of course, the Tigers have a very good candidate for a leadoff hitter in Placido Polanco, so I'm not sure this is the right choice for them.

Note that a good base stealer acts as a doubles hitter from the leadoff spot, so a low OBA player can make up for some of that by stealing with a high percentage. But the advantage of power is that you don't risk the out by trying to steal, the hit gets you in scoring position.

With the score tied at two in the bottom of the ninth, Ronny Paulino leads off the Pittsburgh half with a single against the Nationals. He reaches third on a sacrifice and a wild pitch, at which point Castillo comes in to pinch run and McLouth steps up, having pinch hit for the pitcher earlier in the game. Now McLouth strikes out in about one quarter of his plate at bats and has a .294 career OBA. The Nationals decide to walk him to set up the double play. In his career with a man on third and less than two out, he's 3 for 15 with two sac flies and nine strikeouts. Why not take a chance striking him out? It seems the odds are a lot higher than his driving in the run.

But he walks, Doumit walks on a full count, then Bautista hits a sacrifice fly to win the game anyway. So the IBB led to a better player getting a chance to hit and drive in the winning run. I can't call the IBB wrong; it just seems that McLouth is a bad enough hitter that it's worth the risk to pitch to him in that situation.

The Dodgers are going to move James Loney to first base, but they're going about it the wrong way:

Nomar Garciaparra is moving across the diamond.

After spending the past season and a half as the Los Angeles Dodgers' first baseman, Garciaparra will move to third base, perhaps as early as Friday.
"We're trying to get ourselves in a position where we can be the best we can be, and that option right now is there for us," manager Grady Little said Monday. "Nomar's 100 percent on board. He's been over there before. It's not a strange place for him."

It opens up a chance for streaking James Loney to play first base. Loney is hitting .429 since being recalled from the minor leagues June 10.

"This has a lot to do with the way James Loney is swinging the bat and the way he's playing, too," Little said. "The primary factor is to try to help us win games. And we feel like this is a move we want to give a shot at right now."

This is, of course, why Little was fired by the Red Sox. Nomar has an OBA of .316 and a slugging percentage of .332. Betemit OBA is higher than Nomar's slugging percentage; he's posting a .333 OBA and a .438 slugging percentage. So why is Nomar moving to third? Nomar's batting average is .275, Betemit .198. This would not happen if DePodesta was still the GM. Benching Nomar for Loney is the only move the Dodgers need to make. Betemit draws enough walks that he's okay OBA wise, and when he hits the ball it goes a long way. Some smart GM will snap up Wilson in a trade.

While I don't really understand playing Miguel Cairo at first base at all, there's really no excuse for batting him second, like today. Yes, he hits lefties better than righties, but it's not like he hits well against lefties.

Curtis Granderson hit a home run today for the Tigers, raising his slugging percentage to .578. Given that he hits for power and Polanco does a better job of getting on base, shouldn't Leyland reverse them in the order? Seven of Granderson's nine home runs were solo shots. It seems if he were batting behind someone with a good OBA, more of those home runs would come with men on base.

The Red Sox flipped Dustin Pedroia and Julio Lugo in the lineup last night, making the rookie second baseman the leadoff hitter:

You need only check one column on the stat sheet to understand why the move was made: Pedroia had an on-base percentage of .399, third on the team behind Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Lugo was at .274 (.276 in the leadoff spot, tied with Rocco Baldelli of the Devil Rays for worst leadoff OBP in the AL). Contrast that to Hanley Ramirez, the former Sox prospect who began the night with a .425 OBP while batting leadoff for the Marlins.

Some teams wind up with a position that they just can't fill correctly. The Mets were famous for a long time for not being able to find a steady third baseman. The Mariners tried a new left fielder every year. Now the Red Sox keeping rotating in a new shortstop every season. Lugo is way off his career averages (which really aren't leadoff quality), so the youngster gets the chance.

Correction: Mets third basemen, not first basemen.

With men on first and second and nobody out, Chase Utley sacrificed in the first inning against Barry Zito. Now, while I like the sacrifice more with men on first and second than just a man on first, Utley owns a .555 slugging percentage. The whole point of a slugger is to move runners a long way around the bases. Zito isn't exactly a lights out pitcher with an ERA over 4.00, so why was Utley bunting there? Seems like a big waste of an out.

Update: In the third inning, Utley faces the same situation, but this time strikes out.

Francona just brought in Javier Lopez to face Bobby Abreu. ESPN flashed the graphic that Bobby was 0 for 11 with three strikeouts against Javier. Of course, Abreu lines a solid single to right-center to put runners on first and third with New York down a run with one out. Just once I'd like to hear the announcers talk about how an 0 for 11 is really meaningless.

A good lineup is like a great comedy team. The straight man sets up the joke and the comedian supplies the punchline.

George: Say, you've got a pretty nice job here.
Gracie: Job? I could have had two jobs. This one at ten dollars a week and another one at forty dollars a week.
George: Then why did you take this job?
Gracie: Because I figure that if I lose a ten-dollar job instead of a forty-dollar job, I'll be saving thirty dollars.

The Padres setup and payoff worked perfectly today. Giles and Sledge reached base seven times from the 1-2 slots, and Gonzalez and Bard picked up six RBI right behind them on the way to a 7-3 win over the Nationals.

One big difference between comedy teams and baseball lineups, however, is that the straight man made more money. The comedians were often the more talented individual, but the skill needed to set up the jokes was difficult to find. In baseball, of course, it's the sluggers, not the table setters, who get the big bucks.

The Red Sox took both ends of the double header. Boston extends their lead over the Yankees to 9 1/2 games.

Bill James many years ago wrote about Earl Weaver employing a strategy of using his "B" lineup in the first game of a double header, and his "A" team in the second game. Since most teams do the opposite, Weaver thought he'd gain an advantage with the strategy. If he got lucky and won the first game, the team was more likely to sweep. If he lost the first game, he was more likely to split. I'm not sure how the probabilities work out; I assume it's very dependent on the strength of the opposing team.

Terry Francona appears to be using this strategy today. In game one, Hinske, Mirabelli and Cora are all starting, as is Tavarez. Leyland is using his regular lineup. We'll see how this works out over the day.

Alfonso Soriano started in the third slot in the lineup tonight, the first time this season not in the leadoff slot. He's taking the place of Derrek Lee:

Derrek Lee was sent back to Chicago for tests Sunday night after experiencing neck pains from Saturday's game.

"He had some neck spasms," manager Lou Piniella said. "When it's something that's involved with your neck, we wanted to check it out really good, so we sent him back to Chicago. Nothing serious. We think he'll be here (Tuesday). He's day to day, depending on how he is when he shows up."

So far so good as Soriano doubles and scores on a Ramirez single to put the Cubs up 1-0 in the first. Given Soriano's power, this is really a better spot for him to bat.

Update: Marquis singles in two runs in the second off Tom Glavine to put the Cubs up 3-0 on the Mets. Opposing pitchers are now 2 for 15 vs. Tom, and that made me wonder who's had the most trouble with opposing pitchers this season. It turns out Aaron Harang and Zach Duke both allowed six hits in fifteen at bats to pitchers. Both allowed two doubles, and Harang gave up a home run.

It looks like teams decided Barry Bonds is dangerous once again. The Rockies walked him three times last night, twice intentionally. Through games of 4/25, Barry saw just one IBB. In the last five games, however, he's received seven intentional passes. The walks didn't work last night as Barry scored twice and the Giants took home a 9-5 win over the Rockies.

Orlando Hudson picked up two hits today, including a double as the Diamondbacks defeated the Nationals 3-1. That puts Hudson's averages at .379/.441/.552. I know it's early, but I wonder why Melvin selected Hudson as his #3 hitter. Based on his career averages, he's one of the least likely hitters on the team for the job. I wonder if Arizona is looking at some of the Markov Model research that seems to indicate you don't need a great hitter batting third? Whatever the reason, Hudson certainly responded so far.

Freakonomics presents their annual baseball post with the suggestion that research underway there points to batter protection making a difference. However, make sure you read J.C. Bradbury's comment.

It's always seemed to me that protection should decrease the OBA of the batter protected, making it a counter productive strategy. Protection is supposed to prevent walks to a batter. But we know that if you take away walks, you reduce a player's OBA to his batting average, and for the great majority of players, that's a lower number.

Lou Piniella talked about his use of one-run strategies early in the game:

This is now the Lou Piniella era with the Cubs and you pretty much can forget about giving up outs.

There will be no "small" in his ball. Piniella believes in the offense going on the offensive.

"No, no, no," Piniella said when asked about sacrificing in the first inning on a cold day. "I like to bunt more, believe it or not, when we have a lead so we can add on. I like those situations better than any other time.

"I've never really bunted early. I'm going to run, hit-and-run, steal, double steal, but I don't like the idea of bunting early in a game. Late in the game with a 3-2 lead, 4-2 lead, you get the first couple of runners on, you're looking to tack on, I like the bunt then."

I like the idea of bunting later in the game with men on first and second and a weak hitter up. You put two men in scoring position and set up the sacrifice fly to score a run.

According to this article, the Tigers are planning on batting Ivan Rodriguez in the leadoff spot in 2007:

Rodriguez batted first against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Monday, something he has done seven times in 10 spring games. He has hit first in all four of his starts against left-handers, including Monday (Casey Fossum). He also has batted leadoff against three right-handers, including two accomplished men by the name of Roy (Halladay and Oswalt).

As with Leyland's lineup, the results are self-evident: Rodriguez is batting .429 this spring after a 2-for-3 in Monday's 3-2 win.

He hit a no-doubt home run to leftfield off Al Reyes. He lined a leadoff single to center and smacked a hard grounder to second in his final plate appearance.

He appears more selective -- and certainly less pull-conscious -- than last year. Still, it's difficult to tell whether Rodriguez has changed his approach because he's at the top of the order or whether he's simply hitting the ball better.

Or it's a small sample size. I could see leading off the 2004 Pudge, but the last two seasons his OBA is just .312. Maybe moving up to number will make him a more patient hitter, but my guess is that over time the real Rodriguez's abilities take over. Plus, the extra strain of catching the top of the first and running right back out to lead off might be too much for the older catcher. If Leyland tries this during the regular season, I don't think the experiment will last very long.

Bob Melvin talks about what he's not going to do with his lineup. It looks like he's planning on batting Hudson leadoff. Orlando posted the best OBA numbers of his career in 2006, and PECOTA puts him even higher in 2007. The lineup analysis tool makes him the second leadoff man, however, batting him ninth. I like the idea of Jackson leading off, but I also understand it's not going to happen.

All numbers in the lineup boxes are PECOTA projections, except for the pitchers, which are last year's numbers for the Diamondbacks.

If you find the lineup analysis tool useful, consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Ken Rosenthal look at the debate about batter protection in the context of the Phillies lineup. I found this interesting:

Howard points out the importance of the three hitters in front of him -- Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley -- getting on base.

During late June/early July 1992, George Bell went on a huge power streak. ESPN asked me to see if George was getting better protection from the hitters behind him. What I discovered was that the protection was coming from the hitters in front of him, Raines, Ventura and Thomas. All were posting great OBAs during that period. Opponents had to pitch to Bell, because there was no place to put him. So Ryan's right, the more the batters get on in front of him, the better his chance to do some damage. At some point, you need to try to get an out.

The Good Phight looks at the difference between winning baseball and fun baseball.

Chronicle of the Lads presents a very good post on how Mike Scioscia uses the bunt effectively.

Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog notes that the Tigers lineup is so balanced, the difference between the best and worst lineups in negligible.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff makes an argument for finding someone to protect Ryan Howard in the lineup. Is it really possible to find such a player? Think about it, how many players are out there that you would say, "We better pitch to Howard, because X is coming up." Albert Pujols? Manny Ramirez?

It seems to me that a some point a player is so good that no one can protect him. Just look at Ruth and Gehrig. Do you really think, given the choice, that most pitchers would take Gehrig over Ruth? We don't have intentional walk numbers from that era, but Gehrig's 23 grand slams point in the direction of Ruth getting walks a lot in front of Lou.

My opinion is the best protection for a hitter is a man on first. Teams are not likely to walk a batter to move a runner into scoring position. In other words, Chase Utley's OBA is the best protection Ryan gets.

Joe Torre explains why he bunted with Abreu:

Abreu, who hasn't had a sacrifice since 1998, was asked to bunt and he took several shots at it. "I don't practice it at all," he said.

He got a bunt down and nearly beat it out, but advanced the runners, the fans giving him a hand.

"I talked to Larry Bowa, who managed [Abreu for four years], and he knew he'd never asked him to bunt," Torre said. "Bobby hasn't been swinging the bat as well as he was four or five days ago, or I might've done something different. In that situation, I've got to get a run."

So he takes the bats out of the hands of two left-handed power hitters. Lackey is very good against lefties, but he's much better vs. righties. And since Abreu doesn't bunt, there was a good chance he wouldn't get it down. Bobby's grounded into just eight double plays all season. The chances are by swinging away he likely had a very good chance of getting a runner to third with no more than one out.

I often chide managers who give a star a day off and put the replacement in his batting slot, rather than redoing the lineup. John McNamara used to do this with Ed Romero. He'd give Wade Boggs the night off and bat Romero leadoff. You'd think he could move Evans into the leadoff spot without it hurting the rest of the order too much.

Bruce Bochy did this today as he rested Piazza and inserted Josh Bard in the cleanup slot. I can't complain this time, because Bard is having a career year. He homered today in the Padres 7-2 win over Houston, his seventh of the season. That's 35% of his career home runs. He's now slugging .549 on the season, very worthy of the fourth slot. The Bard for Mirabelli trade sure worked out well for the Padres.

Christian A. Bruzzese sends along this article from Sports Illustrated on the consequences of issuing an intentional walk in a pony league game:

In a nine- and 10-year-old PONY league championship game in Bountiful, Utah, the Yankees lead the Red Sox by one run. The Sox are up in the bottom of the last inning, two outs, a runner on third. At the plate is the Sox' best hitter, a kid named Jordan. On deck is the Sox' worst hitter, a kid named Romney. He's a scrawny cancer survivor who has to take human growth hormone and has a shunt in his brain.

So, you're the coach: Do you intentionally walk the star hitter so you can face the kid who can barely swing?

Wait! Before you answer.... This is a league where everybody gets to bat, there's a four-runs-per-inning max, and no stealing until the ball crosses the plate. On the other hand, the stands are packed and it is the title game.

So ... do you pitch to the star or do you lay it all on the kid who's been through hell already?

Yanks coach Bob Farley decided to walk the star.

Parents booed. The umpire, Mike Wright, thought to himself, Low-ball move. In the stands, Romney's eight-year-old sister cried. "They're picking on Romney!" she said. Romney struck out. The Yanks celebrated. The Sox moaned. The two coaching staffs nearly brawled.

And Romney? He sobbed himself to sleep that night.

This article raises so many issues that have to do with children and sports these days. Does winning matter? Should everyone play? Do we need to make children feel good about themselves, even when they fail?

The Yankees coach wasn't in an all or nothing situation. If he walks the good hitter, he wins the game with a nearly 100% probability. If he pitches to the good hitter, he still has a non-zero probability of winning the game. So then this article doesn't get written. But of course, people would want to know why he didn't walk the batter, and would the answer of, "I didn't want to upset the kid with cancer," really make Romney feel any better?

On top of that, who bats the worst hitter on the team behind the best hitter on the team? You want to surround your best hitter with other good hitters so he has people to drive in and people who can drive him in. The Red Sox coach used a poor lineup strategy. (I suppose there's the possibility that the Red Sox coach batted Romney where he did because thought opponents wouldn't walk his best hitter to get to Romney. If so, he was playing to win as much as the Yankees coach.)

My gut tells me that these teams were playing a championship game, meaning they were going to pick a winner. In a championship game, you should play to win. And maybe people shouldn't worry about Romney's feelings too much. He's seems to have learned the right lesson from this:

By the way, the next morning, Romney woke up and decided to do something about what happened to him.

"I'm going to work on my batting," he told his dad. "Then maybe someday I'll be the one they walk."

I hope that turns out to be true.

Every time I see Clint Barmes batting second for the Rockies, I cringe a little. The man is carrying a .273 OBA this season. And no matter how much you think lineups matter or not, it seems putting that kind of OBA in front of the heart of the order just doesn't make a lot of sense.

But Barmes was put back in the second spot after the All-Star break and is on a tear. He's hit safely in eleven straight games. But more interesting, he does his best work in the second slot. Batting second this season, he's posting a .302 BA and a .331 OBA. In other slots, his BA is .163 and his OBA is .219. It works out pretty much the same for his career. You can argue that the sample sizes are pretty small, but I wonder if there's something else here? You can also see that Barmes' best base situation is a man on first. Is he particularly adept at taking advantage of the hole created by holding a runner at first? Not according to this hit chart. I'm open to speculation here. Why would Barmes be a better #2 hitter than other spots in the lineup?

With the bases loaded and one out in the fifth inning last night, down 3-0, Frank Robinson did not pinch hit for Ramon Ortiz.

For a few tantalizing seconds last night, as the ball hung in the air, hooking down the left field line, it appeared something of a minor miracle had occurred in favor of the Washington Nationals. Ramon Ortiz's double would clear the bases, tie the score and make Manager Frank Robinson look like a genius for not pinch-hitting for the pitcher in the fifth inning.

As a roar grew louder and louder from the RFK Stadium crowd, it seemed physics could not allow this bending ball to go foul. But when it finally landed, the ball left an indentation in the warning track dirt, just a baseball seam or two on the wrong side of the chalk. Foul ball. No miracles on this night for a pitcher batting .100.

Robinson didn't pinch hit because his bullpen was depleted. I can't argue with that move. He still had another shot with the bases loaded and Soriano up (Alfonso lined out to left). I'm surprised, however, they didn't try to squeeze. The likelihood in that situation is the pitcher is going to make an out, so why not try to move the runners with a bunt? If there's one thing a pitcher should be able to do offensively, it's lay down a sacrifice.

The Baseball Crank documents the Mets success avoiding the loss of base runners.

Adam Kilgore writes like this is a good thing:

Marlon Byrd stood on second base with no one out, ripe to be driven in. At the plate stood one of the best players in the league, so it came as a shock to Washington's dugout when Alfonso Soriano -- the Nationals' best hitter, their highest-paid player -- squared to bunt.

Soriano had decided to sacrifice on his own volition, not because of any sign from third base coach Anthony Beasley. Soriano pushed the ball between the pitcher and third baseman, a perfect spot. Soriano ended up in the dugout, but Byrd landed on third, and Soriano, masher of 24 home runs this season, had ignited a two-run third inning with the meekest play in baseball.

"I am struggling at the plate so we have a little problem scoring some runs," Soriano said. "I think it's a good opportunity for me to bunt, put the run in scoring position for [Jose] Vidro. That's a smart play."

Soriano came back to the dugout to high fives. If he had grounded out to second, he probably would get a standing O! Soriano's job is to drive in Byrd from second base. Bunting like that does nothing but say, "I can't hit anymore. All of you looking to trade for me, I'm not worth it."

Remember David Ortiz describing the difference between the Red Sox and the Twins a couple of weeks ago? The Twins high-fived "productive outs." The Red Sox asked why you didn't drive in the runner. My guess if Frank Robinson is privately asking the same question.

Alex Rodriguez was moved to the fifth slot last night by accident:

As Joe Torre and bench coach Lee Mazzilli were discussing potential lineups before the game, Torre told Mazzilli to make up one batting order with Gary Sheffield - starting for the first time since last Saturday - back in his usual No. 3 slot and then "just move everyone else down."

It didn't occur to anyone that Jason Giambi had been moved up from fifth to third during Sheffield's absence, so pushing everyone down meant A-Rod would hit fifth.

"If it had been on purpose, I would have gone and talked to him before doing it," Torre said.

A-Rod doesn't mind:

"I feel real comfortable between the lefties," he said.

Insert punch line here.

Why is Doug Mientkiewicz batting third for the Royals today? Is there any evidence that Doug's the player he was in 2003 when his OBA was .393? Since then, he's been a low on-base, low power, slick fielding first baseman. Is this the best the Royals can do?

Update: Everybody around Doug gets on base and a couple add some power to put the Royals on top 3-0 going to the bottom of the first. Doug flied out to right fielder Bernie Williams (Sheffield DH today) to lower his early season BA to .158.

Update: The Yankees use the old walk, walk, three-run homer to tie the score in the bottom of the first. Damon and Jeter each reached via the base on balls, and both have OBAs over .400. Sheffield's blast ties it.

The Blue Jays used B.J. Ryan in an important but non-save situation. Halladay ran out of gas in the eighth inning. He already allowed three runs and the bases were loaded with 1 out. The Jays trailed 5-2. Gibbons brought in B.J. Ryan, and induced a pop out and struck out Travis Lee to end the inning and keep things close. Excellent use of the team's best reliever.

Update: The Toronto offense is not able to stage a comeback. Kazmir gets to within one out of a complete game when he gives up two singles. He was at 119 pitches. Dan Miceli comes in and gets Catalanotto to end the game. Kazmir allowed 12 hits, but only one walk. That's the kind of control that will make him a star pitcher.

5-2 Was the final.

Shannon Stewart of the Twins reaches on a single and is bunted to second. He ends up coming around on an error and a deep sacrifice fly. With Halladay facing Santana, playing for one run early makes sense.

There seems to be a number of first inning bunts this year. I'll have to check that stat tomorrow to see how it compares to 2005.

The Orioles get the leadoff man on in the first as Roberts beats out an infield single. Perlozzo asks Matos to bunt, and he bunts hard back to Kazmir, and Scott gets the runners at second. The Orioles waste an out but don't advance the runner.

Matos makes up for that by swiping second. It was a nice throw by the Tampa Bay catcher, but Matos knocked the ball out of Cantu's glove with his head.

Update: The Devil Rays get a double play to end the inning and still lead 2-1.

Billfer at The Detroit Tigers Weblog links to Leyland's lineup for 2006. I have to agree I was surprised to see Guillen batting seventh. But, as Billfer notes:

Detroit projects to have a fairly balanced lineup, without any horrible hitters nor spectacular hitters. This will probably temper most changes in the lineup. In fact, using the optimizer and Lee’s aggregate projections for this group the best lineup would score 5.448 runs while the worst would score 5.213. That isn’t a whole lot of difference. However it is worth noting that in the worst lineup Shelton is hitting 8th and Guillen is 6th.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Josh Dubow in the Arizona Republic looks at how much Bonds might walk this season:

Whether it's the swing that has made him the most feared hitter of his generation, the bad knee that makes him a liability on the bases or the steroid accusations that make some hope he doesn't break Hank Aaron's home run record, there are plenty of reasons for teams to walk Barry Bonds.

So many, that San Francisco Giants manager Felipe Alou says his slugger might get free passes nearly half the time he comes to bat this season.

"I'm afraid so," Alou said. "There are many reasons why that I don't want to discuss. They want to make it tough for him. I'm not saying it's intentional, I'm just saying they won't give him a pitch to hit."

Will teams really walk Bonds so he won't break the home run record? I doubt it. I suspect they'll challenge him early in the year to see if his knees hold up, then they'll adopt their traditional strategy. And I believe Bonds has it wrong here:

"It's not based on how I do. It's never been based on how I do. It's based on how the team does. It's based on what the guy is doing behind you," Bonds said. "If I'm a pitcher and I have a guy hitting behind anyone who is hitting in a slump I'm going to pitch around him to pitch to the next guy who is in a slump. That's baseball. That's common sense."

There is no one in baseball who is as dangerous as Bonds when he's on. I don't care if a 26-year-old Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey is coming up next, a team has a much better chance of getting one of those guys out. If Bonds shows he can hit, they'll pitch around him.

Of course, that's poor strategy. Walking Bonds just makes the Giants better. He's not perfect; given the chance to hit, Bonds will make outs more often than he gets on base. Opponents are just giving runs to the Giants by walking the slugger.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Marcus Hayes explains why it's a good idea to bat Abraham Nunez second in the Phillies lineup:

Hitting Nunez second seems a natural thing. He is a smallish, switch-hitting contact hitter with decent speed who doesn't strike out much and has displayed very good bat control. Manuel has lamented the Phillies' seeming inability to hit correctly in certain situations. Nunez hit .352 in 105 at-bats in the No. 2 hole last year in the dangerous Cardinals lineup.

While it's good the Phillies are concentrating on what Nunez can do, in this case what he can't do is pretty important, also. Nunez doesn't get on base very well. His .314 career OBA does not scream, "table setter." Rowand, at .337, while not great, is still a better choice.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Lineup construction is takes center stage in Alan Schwarz's latest column, prompted by where to bat David Wright. His conclusion:

In the end, when it comes to lineups, it's mind over doesn't matter.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

The Educated Sports Journal surveys and sums up various articles on lineups that were published on the web over the last month.

And many thanks to that site for it's support of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Dave Studeman at The Hardball Times looks at how The Book sees lineups. One thing the various ways of evaluating lineups have in common is the devaluation of the third slot in the batting order. The Book puts the best three hitters in the 1,2 and 4 slots, as does Cyril Morong's work.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Willie Randolph discussed the Mets 2006 lineup yesterday. The concern of the press is will Beltran bat 2nd and will Willie split the lefties Delgado and Floyd?

Reyes is penciled in as the leadoff hitter. Why doesn't anyone ask if he belongs there. I actually like the idea of Beltran leading off, with Wright, Delgado and Floyd following. You can always throw Diaz in between Delgado and Floyd if you want to break up the lefties.

The Lineup Analysis tool likes the Mets with Beltran and Wright at the top, and Matsui between the table setters and the power (based on PECOTA projections). That would never fly, but if you move Matsui out and the power up a slot, it looks like a good lineup that's not that unconventional.

I was reading this Athletics Nation thread on lineups, and noticed another feature of the Lineup Analysis tool. Even if you don't buy the lineups genterated by the program, it can demonstrate the balance of a team. Here's the lineup a person on that thread ran for the Athletics. Notice that the difference between the best and worst lineups is pretty small, about .25 runs per game. If you look at the Giants, however, the gap between best and worst is about .9 runs.

That's what's so impressive about the Oakland offense this season; there are no bad players in the lineup.

There's a headline without an article at the Contra Costa Times. I don't know if it's a mistake or a real story, since I can't find it anywhere else. But if it's true, Alou set his lineup with Winn in the leadoff spot and Bonds batting fourth. I guess Bonds won the battle to not bat second if this headline is accurate.

Here's what the Lineup Analysis Tool says about the Giants lineup.

Update: I should mention that I used The Bill James Handbook 2006 projections for the position players. The numbers for the pitchers are what the Giants pitchers did last year.

I've been in touch with Cy Morong, and it turns out I was using the wrong constant in the Lineup Analysis tool. The change won't effect which lineup is best or worst. It will just boost the calculation of runs per game by .40 runs.

Cy generated another set of parameters based on a larger sample of data, and I'm working on including that as well.

Update: You can now choose between Cy's 1998-2002 model and his 1959-2004 model.

Don Scotto at Beyond the Boxscore spent a lot of time with the Lineup Analysis tool and he's figured out how to build the lineup without the computer's help.

To me, the most interesting and counter-intuitive aspect is the number three hitter:

This was the biggest surprise: the 3 hitter should be the player that doesn't fit into any of the other spots. Every other spot has some significance, but if I were building a lineup, I would just put the leftover player in the 3 hole. This seemed very counterintuitive to me when I first heard it, but David Pinto noted, "Part of what it's telling us is that you need to spread out your easy outs." I still struggled to get this, but I'm starting to, now. Marc said something to the effect of "the worst players have to go somewhere." I guess this is really it; the other spots just have greater needs. If you can get a good hitter here, it means that your lineup is very deep.

A few years ago when I was working at UMass, someone at our lab pointed out an article that analyzed lineups using Markov chains. It showed the pitcher should bat eighth. I had a very tough time believing that, until I sat down with pencil and paper and found you really didn't lose that much giving the pitcher those extra at bats, a few runs at most. It took a while, but I got my head around the idea of a second leadoff hitter in the nine hole. So it's easier for me to deal with a poor hitter in the three spot.

Here's what I think is going on. There really are two lineups here. The 9-1-2 section of the order is the killer OBA guys. The 4-5-6-7 are the boppers. Three and eight are the easy outs, separated so the opposing pitcher doesn't get any easy stretches.

One and two get on base a lot, so hitter four almost always bats in the first inning. If he doesn't, he's also a good OBA guy so he's good at leading off the second inning. When the lineup turns over, you have the extra good OBA in front of the first two hitters. Since these two also have decent power, number nine is a new table setter. It would be very interesting to see if #9 and #4 led off a lot of innings, since you would expect #3 and #8 to make the third out when they get the opportunity. If that were to be true, the two lineup idea would be absolutely brilliant. At the two places you're most likely to run into the third out, at leadoff man is coming up next.

Update: Be sure to read the comments. There's an indirect link to a retrosheet research article in one. Here's the direct link to Evaluating Traditional Lineups.

There were a couple of requests in regards to last night's lineup analysis to change the program so it would calculate the runs per game for a given lineup. Having looked at the code, it wasn't tough to do. So now if you enter an actual lineup, it gives you the runs per game for that batting order before the best and worst tables. You can try it here.

I love the way the internet works. Bob wrote my today to tell me about an article he posted at HireMeTheo on the optimum Red Sox lineup. He got the idea from two sources; Cyril Morong's recent article on the weights given to on-base average and slugging average depending on lineup slot, and Ken Arneson's application of this to the Oakland Athletics.

Ken was kind enough to post a Perl script on how to do this. I think this is just a fascinating subject and this type of program would be very useful to simulation game players (and maybe baseball managers in general). So I coded the analysis program as a python script, and now you can find the optimum lineup for any set of nine players based on the work of these gentlemen.

The program is called Lineup Analysis. Just fill in all the slots with data (you can make up names if you like), press submit and off you go. It supplies you with the 20 best and 20 worst lineups given that set of players.

Here are a couple of examples (they take a minute to run). Using The Bill James Handbook 2006 player projections, here's what the best and worst 2006 Yankees lineups look like. Notice that the program puts very unusual people at the top of the order. It also seems to put the worst hitters 8th. It also likes to put three high OBAs in front of the best power hitter.

Here's a look at my idea of the all-time best hitting team (Edgar Martinez is the DH). How would you like to start a game facing Bonds and Ruth? Don't tell Joe Morgan he's batting 9th.

I hope you'll give this a try. It takes a minute to run since it has to go through all the probabilities. If nothing else, it can generate some interesting discussions.

The general consensus is that lineups don't matter much. These program are showing that the difference between the best and worst lineups is half a run per game, or 80 runs a season. That's 8 wins. However, even the worst managers aren't going to use the worst lineup. If you keep your high OBA players at the top and the sluggers in the middle, you're not going to come out very near the top.

Dave Sheinin of the Washington post catches Frank Robinson making an outrageous statement about the possibilites the Nationals' leadoff hitter:

Robinson said Watson will bat leadoff anytime he is in the team's lineup this spring, once exhibition games begin March 1. When asked about his alternate plan, should Watson, 24, fail to seize the job, Robinson mentioned shortstop Cristian Guzman and outfielders Ryan Church and Marlon Byrd as possibilities.

"The guy would have to have a good idea of the strike zone [and] not be afraid of hitting with two strikes," Robinson said. "And also, he would have to take a lot of pitches. . . . A lot of hitters can't handle it."

Guzman in particular would seem to be an odd choice, given his career on-base percentage of .298, and that he saw only 3.19 pitches per plate appearance in 2005, second-lowest among players with at least 450 plate appearances.

Nice to see a sports writer aware of the stats. The beat writers of the Post did a nice on this last year, too. Dave also suggests Nick Johnson leading off:

Byrd, by comparison, saw 4.19 pitches per plate appearance and Church saw 3.79. First baseman Nick Johnson, whom Robinson said he would not consider for the leadoff job, has averaged 4.18 pitches for his career.

The issue of Barry Bond batting second is not yet settled:

Alou said he will have a sit-down with Bonds to discuss not only the idea of hitting second, which all along the skipper said he would not do unless Bonds was on board, but also how best the left fielder should prepare in Arizona for what the Giants pray is his first full season back after his 2005 arthroscopy tour.

Bonds should be receptive to this idea. It appears to me that Barry is after two goals; winning the World Series and setting a home run record. Batting second allows the Giants to take advantage of Bonds two strengths; he gets on base to set up the power hitters behind him (if any) and can use his power with a good setup man in front. (Maybe Alou should bat the pitcher 8th to give Barry more RBI opportunities.) With Bonds playing time probably limited, Alou will be able to take Barry out earlier in games. This strategy should help the Giants win more.

And if the second spot give Barry an extra 10 plate appearances, that another home run.

My only real question regarding this strategy is if Bonds is better off playing half a game every day, or taking a couple of days off a week? Which is going to be better for his knee?

Barry Bonds doesn't want to bat second:

Bonds was sidelined for most of the 2005 season with a knee injury and Alou anticipates having to pull him for a defensive replacement late in games.

The outfielder has typically batted third or fourth.

"I am going to speak with Felipe, because at this point in my career it doesn't work for me to be second bat," Bonds told the Dominican newspaper, El Caribe, for its Sunday editions.

Bonds was a good leadoff man early in his career. If he's going to be walked every time there are men on base, why not let him set up the other power hitters in the lineup? The idea makes sense to me.

Dan Agonistes presents a few bunting charts to tie in with his articles on The Hardball Times. The thing that shocked me was his chart on bunting by inning. Over the last three seasons, teams attempted 512 sacrifice bunts in the first inning!

From 2003 through 2005, the majors played 7289 games, or 14578 first innings. Let's say that the leadoff man reached in about 35% of those. That's about 5100 innings when there's the possibility of a sacrifice. So 10% of the time, managers are bunting in the first inning! I thought first inning bunts went the way of the dinosaur, disappearing when Gene Mauch retired. I'll need to watch for these more closely next season.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? discusses the options for the Pittsburgh Pirates in right field.

By the way, I love the Van Slyke quote included in the sub title.

The Yankees are using Jason Giambi to recruit Nomar Garciaparra. However, I found this amusing:

As of now, the Yankees do not have an everyday DH. GM Brian Cashman, who flew home from Tampa last night after two days of meetings with scouts, said choosing a DH would "be up to Joe, based on the matchups that given day." Andy Phillips and Bernie Williams (assuming he signs a one-year contract with the Yanks) are other options.

How many teams really have an everyday DH? The DH is the slot for the extra good hitter on the team, or the injured player who can't field that day, or a platoon or someone you just want to rest a bit. There are very few players of the caliber of Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz who fit the description of an everyday DH.

After going back and forth on this, it looks like Mike Lowell is out at third base. Miguel Cabrera moves to the position, and rookie Jeremy Hermida and veteran Jeff Conine will platoon in left.

Hermida, who hit a grand slam in his first major-league at-bat last week, doubled in Castillo during the Marlins' three-run third inning.

Hermida played left field while Miguel Cabrera played third base, in place of Lowell.

Hermida has more extra-base hits in five games since being called up from Class AA Carolina than Lowell has in his past 15 games. And he has more RBI — five — than Lowell has in his past 22 games.

Juan Pierre is no longer leading off. I like both Lowell and Pierre, but the moves needed to be done. The Marlins are in an extremely tight race for the Wild Card, and they can no longer afford to carry unproductive veterans. Lowell had to sit, and Pierre had to move down in the lineup. Kudos to McKeon for having the guts to make the call.

Willie Randolph gave Jose Reyes a day off and put Kaz Matsui at 2nd and Chris Woodward at shortstop. Now, Matsui has an OBA in the .280's and Woodward's in the .340's. Which one do you put in the leadoff spot? That right, you put Woodward. But Willie used Kaz there. They both went 0 for 4 as the Mets lost 2-1, but it makes me wonder if Willie understands the importance of on-base average at the top of the order.

Reyes did get in the game when Cameron and Beltran had a serious collision in center field. Reyes amazingly drew a walk.

It's nice to see a manager stay with a relief pitcher who is pitching well, rather than bring in the closer because it's time for the closer:

After rookie Conor Jackson put the Diamondbacks ahead with an eighth-inning double to score Troy Glaus, Melvin decided to stick with Aquino, who had worked a quick, 1-2-3 bottom of the eighth against the middle of the Cubs order.

Aquino, who had 16 saves a year ago as a rookie, then retired the side in the ninth for his first save of 2005.

The Red demolished San Diego 9-1 later, putting the Diamondbacks just one game out of the NL West lead.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are releasing Jose Cruz Jr. to make room for Conor Jackson, a minor league first baseman who's tearing up the Pacific Coast League. Arizona is looking for an offensive boost, and they're getting it by sacrificing defense in the outfield:

Jackson, 23, will share time at first base with Tony Clark in a move that will force Chad Tracy, who has started 72 games at first, out to right field. Shawn Green, who has started 97 games in right, will move over and be the everyday starter in center field.

Green became a first baseman with the Dodgers. Tracy is a first baseman. There's a reason these players were at first rather than in the outfield. Green last played center in 2001.

Still it's not such a bad move if Jackson hits well. The team gets plenty of credit for boldness and imagination. And considering the state of the NL West, a small team improvement can lead to big rewards.

Felipe Alou must have needed some exercise last night, as he kept making trips to the mound in the eighth inning of the Giants-Cubs game:

Alou tried to play his trademark brand of matchup baseball. He used five relievers in a bid to get three outs in the eighth before the Cubs could score the tying run. The plan failed. Ultimately, Alou summoned closer Tyler Walker to face Neifi Perez with the bases loaded and two outs.

One pitch later, the game was tied 2-2 on a Perez single. Walker had his third blown save in his last four chances and blew a Schmidt win for the second time in six nights. Walker then allowed singles in the ninth to Ronny Cedeño and Todd Walker. After an intentional walk to MVP front-runner Derrek Lee, Jeff Fassero replaced Walker and got Jeromy Burnitz to line out to center.

Cedeño tagged from third. Jason Ellison unleashed a terrific throw, but Cedeño made a better slide, getting his hand around Mike Matheny's block attempt. The game was over, and Alou confessed he is starting to worry about his closer.

Two things here:

1. Why not let Hawkins or Eyre pitch as long as they are doing okay? Eyre's been successful against both lefties and righties this year.
2. We're going to start hearing Neifi Perez compared to Pat Tabler. That's two days in a row he's come through with the bases loaded late in the game.

There are times when matchups are important. But I believe those situations aren't as widespread as some managers believe. Every time you bring in a new pitcher, you're rolling the dice. Maybe this guy doesn't have it today. Why leave in the guy who has shown he can get an out?

You know the Dodgers are in trouble when the best cleanup hitter they can find against a left-handed pitcher is Jason Phillips. And it shouldn't be surprising that such a lineup was the victim of a Giants shutout. The lineup was necessitated by Jeff Kent's wrist:

As the Dodgers try to cobble together their best lineup for a pennant push in this injury-riddled season, Jeff Kent said he would accommodate a request to move to first base.

The Dodgers have yet to make such a request, but Manager Jim Tracy has discussed the possibility with Kent, a five-time All-Star second baseman.

"If that's what it takes, we'll deal with it every day," Kent said. "We've had a confusing lineup every day. Hopefully, soon, we can resolve that and become consistent. Tracy is trying to do that the best he can."

Before the Dodgers scratched Kent on Friday because of a sore left wrist — a throw hit him there in Thursday's game — their lineup included Kent at first base, for the third consecutive game. Tracy said Kent was playing there primarily to ease the strain on his sore left hamstring.

When DePodesta took over in LA, he praised the Dodgers farm system. Yet, he's done very little to use that system. If the farm system is so great, why doesn't he either:

1. Bring up players to fill in holes, as the Braves are doing.
2. Trade some of those prospects for players who can help now.

The Dodgers are 10 games under .500, and only a weak division leader is keeping them from being double digits in games back. If the team waits another two weeks to try to fill in the holes, it may be too late.

Lee Mazzilli batted Sammy Sosa second last night in an attempt to get the failing slugger's bat going again.

Sammy Sosa batted second for the first time since May 23, 1993, with the Chicago Cubs. Mazzilli wanted better protection for Sosa, with Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada batting behind him, and thought a change of scenery might do him good.

His average down to .225 before last night, Sosa went 0-for-4 with a sacrifice fly in the ninth that shattered his bat but produced his 28th RBI.

I always thought you sought protection for a hitter because the opposition was pitching around the guy. Sosa isn't exactly drawing a ton of walks. With a .222 BA and a .377 slugging percentage, he's no longer a feared hitter, and the protection did nothing to help him last night.

Why was Travis Hafner on the bench for the Indians tonight? He's the best offensive player on the club. He's having a good year vs. lefties. He's on fire. So of course, you sit him in favor of Ben Broussard, who's hitting .208 vs. lefties. Sometimes I don't understand Eric Wedge. Broussard went 0 for 4, and the Indians lost by one runs, 3-2. Hafner did pinch hit late and drew a walk, so his hot July continues.

To whom would you pitch? With right-hander Kameron Loe on the mound, and men on 2nd and 3rd, Showalter elected to walk Vlad Guerrero with none out in the top of the 11th. He then brough in the left Shouse to pitch to Garret Anderson. It's the move every manager and every sabermetrician would make. Shouse's 2nd pitch just makes the stands for an Anderson grand slam.

While the game isn't over, this will be a tough loss for Texas if it ends this way. John Wasdin made his first start of the year, and it was a dandy, going eight innings and allowing just one run. He should be getting the win, but Washburn and the Angels bullpen matched the Rangers staff this evening.

Every day as I look at boxscores I'm amazed at how many players with poor on-base averages are batting second. I'm most surprised when I see it with the Red Sox. For some reason, they bat Renteria second and leave Bill Mueller down in the 8th spot. If it were based on their career averages I might understand, but Mueller is 30 points better over their lifetime service. Is it speed? Is it bat control? Neither strikes out much, and Edgar will steal many more bases. But it's tough to steal if you're not on.

With the injury to Josh Beckett, the Marlins are moving Leiter back to the rotation and going with four starters for the next couple of weeks. With days off, they'll still be able to pitch on four days rest.

That's good news for Dontrelle Willis, who can pick up an extra start this way. If the Marlins can continue that, taking advantage of days off, Dontrelle might get enough starts to be able to win 30.

Inspired by this Bill James interview, Dan Agonistes examines the outcomes of bunts in more detail to see when a sacrifice is worth it.

Tony Womack looks like the odd man out tonight. The Yankees are back to their original outfield alignment of Matsui, Williams and Sheffield, but Cano is staying at second and batting second. Maybe the Yankees have learned a lesson; their usually someone in the minors who can play as well as a veteran in his mid-30's, and for much less money.

Why is Billy Wagner starting the 9th inning? Myers only threw 87 pitches. Yes, he had given up consecutive hits to Estrada and Hampton, but Wagner has pitched two days in a row. Giles doubles off the right field wall with one out, then steals third. The Braves have the best threat of the night right now.

Update: Chipper Jones strikes out looking. No excuse for not swinging in that situation.

Update: Great play by David Bell on a slow roller by Andruw Jones. He cut across in front of the shortstop to get the ball and throw out the batter. If the ball had gotten to Rollins, Andrew would have beat it out. To the bottom of the ninth, still no score.

Myers ERA is now 0.44.

One of the problems in having 11 or 12 pitchers on your staff is that you have less room to manuver with your batters. So Bobby Cox pinch hits for Perez with Estrada, another catcher. When he reaches, Cox can't pinch run. So Hampton hits a two out double, and Estrada gets thrown out at the plate. It's still 0-0 in the bottom of the 8th.

The announcers doing the Pirates game were talking about batting Tyke Redman third. It turns out the Pirates had a someone run computer simulations, and this was the lineup that produced the most runs! Great stuff, and a great use of technology. We'll come back at the end of the season and see if the Pirates improved over last year.

Jason Bay drives in Matt Lawton to give the Pirates a 1-0 lead. Bay and Perez living up to expectations in the first inning.

Twice in this game (once for each team) a runner has gone second to third on a grounder to the shortstop. Back in the 1980's, Pete Palmer and John Thorn wrote in the hidden game of baseball that this is a great play. The run potentials are such that even if you don't make it very often, you help your team in the long run. Both Ortiz and Sheffield made the play tonight.

The Cubdom has an excellent post analyzing the Cubs lineup. I especially like his color-coded batting slots for each hitter.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

What do Johnny Damon and Dwight David Eisenhower have in common? Nixon in the #2 slot.

Nine days before Opening Day, manager Terry Francona made a significant change in the lineup vs. right-handed starting pitchers by moving Trot Nixon [stats, news] up to second from sixth and dropping Edgar Renteria from second to fifth. It also resulted in Kevin Millar [stats, news] dropping one spot to sixth.

I like this spin on the move:

"We could probably hit these guys anywhere and if they hit like they're supposed to, we'll be OK,'' Francona said. ``But the idea is, if they hit like they're supposed to, is to maximize our scoring opportunities."

Nixon, for his career, has a 20 point higher OBA than Renteria. Batting Renteria fifth is also interesting. It looks to me as if they're trying to use him as a leadoff man for the bottom of the order.

It should be noted that with Bellhorn batting 9th, you have two great OBA guys in front of Nixon, leading to this comment by Francona:

"Our two-hole is more of an RBI position than other clubs, so we view it a little different," Francona said. "It may be a little bit unconventional but I think when you sit down and look at it, it seems to be in our best interests."

Nixon, in this sense, is a swing man. He's a table setter in the first inning, and he's an RBI man when Bellhorn and Damon set the table. A fascinating lineup.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Bob Melvin has announced his preferred lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'd bat Cruz 2nd and Clayton 7th or 8th. Cruz both has a better career OBA and a better stolen base percentage than Clayton. And his power isn't that great that you're losing a big RBI threat moving him to 2nd.

However, since the meat of the Diamondbacks ability to get on base is in their 3-4-5 hitters, it might not be a bad idea to have Cruz behind them to drive them in. With this lineup, the 3-4-5 hitters could end up with more runs scored than driven in.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Alex Belth follows up on this Baseball Musings post about the Yankees batting order. He has this great Torre quote from the NY Times:

Derek Jeter batted leadoff Thursday, with the new second baseman, Tony Womack, batting ninth. Manager Joe Torre said he expected to stick with that arrangement, mainly because he could not think of another everyday player who could bat ninth.

It's a great way of stating it. The 9th hitter is usually pretty easy to pick out; he's the player who doesn't hit well. Torre makes it sound like you need special skills to hit 9th. Another example of Torre's leadership.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

An interesting article in the Washington Post on how Washington is trying to fit Endy Chavez into the leadoff spot. It's nice to see Barry Svrluga unabashedly use OBA to evaluate Endy:

Last year, he couldn't hold onto the leadoff spot -- one he acquiesced to Wilkerson -- because he walked just 30 times in 547 plate appearances, a horrific rate. He hit .277 and stole 32 bases, but it hardly mattered, because his on-base percentage was just .318, including an unforgivable .291 when batting first. The result: He scored just 65 runs. This year, the goal has been clearly stated. The Nationals want Chavez to score 100 times. Doesn't matter how. Just think that way. Make it happen.

Most sports writers would think a .277 average and 32 stolen bases was pretty good. This paragraph is a breath of fresh air.

Will it work? Billy Beane believes that getting on base is a skill that developed at a young age. Chavez appears to be too agressive, even ahead in the count:

His job, though, is multifaceted and more than a bit complex. Get this: One problem Chavez has is that when he swings, he hits the ball. Yes, you read that correctly. For Chavez, putting bat on ball too much is problematic.

Robinson explains it thusly. In the instances when Chavez is fortunate to work the count to, say, 3-1, his natural aggressiveness takes over. As Chavez said, "I like to swing the bat. It's hard not to." But because he rarely swings and misses or fouls a ball back, swinging at 3-1 can turn an at-bat in which Chavez held the advantage into a harmless groundout or popup. So in such situations, Robinson wants something different from a guy who's supposed to be a leadoff hitter.

"Occasionally, you're going to have to say to yourself, 'I'm going to take this pitch, and I'll go 3-2 and make him throw another pitch,' " Robinson said. "He has to, each at-bat, understand the situation, and then that will dictate what you should do that at-bat. Each at-bat is different, so look at it that way."

I hope for both Chavez and the Nationals that Endy can make the adjustments. However, Washington would probably be better off finding someone who has developed the skill of getting on base. I hear Rickey Henderson is playing up the road in Newark.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Batgirl takes a look at the proposed Twins lineup today. Gardenhire has a perfect left-right balance in the order, with Mauer batting 2nd and Hunter batting 3rd. I like the idea of Mauer in the two spot, but I think the order would work better if Ron swapped Hunter and Ford in the three and five slots. They have about the same amount of power, but Ford does a better job of getting on base. The third spot is still at the beginning of the offense, where OBA is more important. Hunter's, a hacker who has power, is better off finishing the offensive cycle.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

As a follow up to this theory at The Birdwatch, CurveBlog had James Click run some simulations of different Cardinals lineups. The lineup with Walker, Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen 1-2-3-4 does very well.

James Click continues his research on lineup construction. (My original comments and link here.) Interestingly, his research is showing a tendancy toward the classic lineup being the best; two table setters followed by three sluggers. The differences between the lineups are small, but this type of configuration keeps coming out on top.

I really like this post by The BirdWatch in which the author discusses the downside of batting Larry Walker leadoff. I really like his idea, however, of batting Walker leadoff and the pitcher 7th.

If you wanted to get really cute you could put Grudz 8th and Eckstien 9th, with Walker, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen 1-2-3-4. Each of those players gets the advantage of more at bats and after the first cycle through Walker and Pujols wouldn't be stymied by a lack of hitters in front of them.

Neither Grudzielanek nor Eckstein get on base as much as those four. I'd love to see La Russa try it out.

I don't understand the makeup of the Dodgers lineup. The player with the lowest OBA of the eight position players is leading off. The player with the highest OBA is batting seventh. The player with the 2nd highest OBA is batting sixth. In general, the OBA goes up as you go through the lineup.

The what really gets me as I watch the first inning is the use of 1-run strategies. Izturis singles, then steals. Fine. Izzy is an okay basestealer. But then, Finley, who has a .500 slugging percentage, sacrifices Izturis to third! You had the runner in scoring position, with a player up capable of not only driving him in, but putting himself in scoring position with a hit! Why bunt?

The Cubs then help them out with a poor fielding play, putting Bradley at first and scoring Izturis. The one-run strategy works! Not content to build on the mistake, Bradley runs (he has a bad wheel) and is thrown out. Inning ends with 1 runs scored. I guess that Dodgers think that's enough in Wrigley.

It looks like Buck Showalter shook up the Texas lineup today. But if you're going to make these kind of changes, why not leadoff with Eric Young?

Why isn't Jason Michaels leading off for the Phillies? Today, Rollins (.332 OBA) and Utley (.304 OBA) are in the the table-setter slots. Meanwhile, Michaels, with his .387 OBA and .381 career OBA is batting near the bottom of the order. The Phillies have this powerful heart of the order. They deserve to have men on base when they bat.

I'm looking at the Atlanta lineup tonight, and I'm wondering why they are still batting Charles Thomas 8th. I understand not wanting to put pressure on him, but this isn't the Yankees where the offense is so good it doesn't matter if you bat a rookie like Jeter or Soriano or Johnson at the bottom of the order. The Braves need offense, and grouping your best hitters together helps generate that offense. Get Thomas into the middle of the lineup until he proves he can't hit. His great OBA is being wasted batting in front of the pitcher.

A reader comments on the Smoltz save post from last night:

I wonder if last night's six-out save by Smoltz had anything to do with it?

Sure it did, but it doesn't change the criticism. The game needed to be saved in the top of the 8th. I'm willing to believe Smoltz couldn't go four outs. But he was able to go three. So why not the last out of the 8th and the first two outs of the 9th? So he doesn't get the save. At least the Braves win the game, which I believe is the whole point of playing major league baseball.

It seems that Larry Bowa isn't the only one who doesn't know when to bring in his closer. Chris Reitsma had a rough 8th inning. With two on and two out, it seemed a perfect time to bring in Smoltz for a four-out save. But Cox stuck with Chris, and the result is a tie game in the bottom of the eighth.

Update: So Smoltz is on in the 9th. A lot of good he's going to do now. If the game is tied after nine, it will be interesting to see if Smoltz comes out for the 10th. If he does, why didn't he pitch in the top of the 8th?

The Arizona Diamondbacks lineup struck me as very unusual tonight, especially in the top three slots. All three hitters have OBA's between .351 and .361. But they are arranged in order of descending slugging percentage. In general, you want the sluggers behind the table setters because the value of slugging is driving runners a long distance.

Hairston, with a lead-off double, now has a .550 slugging percentage. Finley bats behind him, with a .525 slugging percentage. Now, you might expect Finely to try to drive in Hairston with a big hit and go for the big inning. But nooooooooooooo! Brenly has Finley lay down a bunt. A .525 slugger giving away an out in the first inning with a man on 2nd. The third hitter, Bautista has a low .448 Slug%. Isn't the third hitter supposed to be the best on your team? Bautista grounds out, driving in Hairston. So the DBacks play for one run, and get it.

I'm sorry, this is not major league managing. This is wasting opportunities. It's not maximizing the chances for your team to score. It's giving in to the idea that your team can't score, and forcing that idea into reality.

Interesting to see Michael Barrett leading off for the Cubs today. His .353 OBA is one of the good ones on the team. Dusty Baker explained his reasoning:

"Michael's been my everything man. He can bat seventh, eighth, fifth, second. He'll be where I think he can help us best that day."

Craig Biggio and Jason Kendall are other catchers who have led off, yet it's still rare.

"We don't have a prototypical leadoff man, so we might as well go with the guy who can hit," Baker said. "It's not a big deal. Sometimes I'm doing it because I want to do it. I wish I was a basketball coach -- it's 'coach's decision.'"

As Grudzielanek heals, he'll go back to the leadoff spot, but it's good to see that Dusty is willing to think outside the box to construct his lineup.

Over at the raindrops, Avkash takes a look at the Mets bullpen, based on this study of the Astros pen at Baseball Prospectus. Howe and Williams are found lacking in their management of the relief staff.

Joe Torre just had Jeter bunt Crosby over to 2nd in the bottom of the first. Michael Kay appears to agree with my position on this.

Update: The Yankees play for one run, and get one run.

In the top of the first of the Houston-Chicago game, Biggio got on when he was hit by the pitch. Jimy Williams then has Adam Everett sacrifice. I don't understand that. Sacrificing in the first inning makes sense if you believe one of the following:

• It's going to be a low scoring game.


• The opposing pitcher is extremely good.


• You think your offense if really bad.

I'd have to say none of these are true. Houston is 2nd in runs scored, so the offense is pretty good, especially the three guys coming up behind Everett. The opposing pitcher is Glendon Rusch, and he's pitching on short rest. The game is being played at Wrigley Field, and the wind is blowing out. (There have been five HR in the game so far.)

So Bagwell followed the sac with a HR, which would have scored Biggio from first as easily as from second. Williams blew the chance of Everett getting on base, in which case Bagwell might have had a three-run HR, and the Astros would have the lead right now, instead of a 3-3 tie.

The Expos are batting Livan Hernandez in the traditional 9th spot today.

In looking at how poorly Joe Valentine started the game yesterday, I failed to notice that Frank Robinson batted Tomo Ohka, the pitcher, 8th. It's an unusual strategy, but one that was tried by Tony La Russa a few years ago. If you didn't know, there is some mathematical basis for this lineup.

Bruce Bukiet at the New Jersey Institute of Technology has done simulations that have convinced him that the last spot is not the best spot for the pitcher.

My colleagues and I studied the 1989 National League to ascertain principles common to optimal lineups and reduce the number of lineups we needed to test. We ranked players by Scoring Index - the number of runs a team would score on average if it had 9 copies of the given player. Interestingly, we found that the slugger - the player with the highest Scoring Index - should bat second or third on 3/4 of the teams and bat fourth on only 1/4 of the teams considered. We also found that the pitcher should almost never bat last. (These two findings are, of course, not in keeping with the way most managers construct their lineups.)

(You can download a postscript version of the research paper here.) To sum up his conclusions, the worst hitter should be as far away in the lineup from the best hitter as possible. So if you bat your best hitter in the top 3, you don't want a pitcher batting ninth, because that is going to reduce the rbi opportunities for your best hitter. He basically endorses the strategy that some AL teams use with the DH of putting a 2nd leadoff type hitter in the ninth spot.

When I first heard of this work, I was skeptical. I thought that giving extra plate appearances to poor hitters would do more harm than the extra rbi opps for the best hitters would help. But using the runs created formula and figuring how many runs would be gained and lost by switching the 8 and 9 hitters around, you don't lose that much. Jamey Carroll did have a hit, a walk and a run scored from the ninth spot yesterday. I don't think it makes all that much difference if you bat the pitcher 8th or 9th, but for a poor offensive team like Montreal, anything is worth a try.

My good friend Jim Storer called me to point out that the Marlins were starting Lenny Harris as the clean up hitter tonight. Lenny Harris, who has a .349 career slugging percentage. That's not even a great on-base average! Why? As far as I can tell, Cabrera is out of the lineup, and Harris is playing right in Miguel's stead. So of course, he has to bat in the same place; we wouldn't want to upset the rest of the order and we wouldn't want to move Choi up to a spot where his power would do more good.

This reminds me of how John McNamara used to bat Ed Romero leadoff when Boggs was out of the lineup. Can't these managers think?

There's a good article on SFGate.com about whether walking Bonds all the time is a good strategy. They quote Bill James, who did computer simulations of surrounding Babe Ruth with marginal players and walking him all the time:

"I have little doubt the excessive intentional walks to Bonds are helping the Giants," James said from his home in Kansas. "The walks set up so many innings."

James conducted a study, aiming to determine whether it makes sense to intentionally walk a batter such as Bonds or Babe Ruth every time he steps in the box. Into his computer, James programmed Ruth's best season (1921) and surrounded him with marginal players -- worse than Bonds' current supporting cast, according to James.

James simulated thousands of games. In one set of games, the computer walked Ruth every time. In the other set, Ruth was walked in normal situations.

"The conclusion of the study was that, as great a hitter as Ruth was, and as bad as his teammates were, it was still far, far more destructive to just walk him than it was to pitch to him," James said. "It wasn't even close. He was nowhere to the point it made sense to just walk him every time."

James chose San Francisco native Gino Cimoli, an outfielder in the late '50s and '60s, to bat after Ruth. In one full season of simulated games in which Ruth was walked every time, Cimoli batted .267 (right about his career average) with eight homers -- but a whopping 151 RBIs. His career high was 72.

Barry's intrinsic OBA is more like .520 (that's OBA once you take out the intentional walks). So even if you pitch to the guy, he still makes an out about half the time. And my guess is that if you really pitched to him, instead of nibbling around the corners, his OBA would be a lot closer to .400.

My guess is that managers don't want to answer the questions about not walking Bonds. Reporters will criticize you if you pitch to Bonds and he beats you, but it's okay not to pitch to Bonds and have someone else beat you. It's nice to see SF Gate realized this may not be the best strategy.

Of course, the best way for Bonds not to beat you is to have him out of the lineup. He's missing the entire Pittsburgh series, but is expected back Tuesday. We'll see.

Eric Byrnes was the hero for the Athletics last night, taking a Terry Mulholland pitch deep into the left field stands for a two-run homer in the 13th and the win. From the recap on ESPN.com:

Eric Byrnes popped out to second when he had chance to win the game in the 11th inning.

He made his next at-bat count, hitting a two-run homer in the 13th inning to give the Oakland Athletics an 11-9 win over the Minnesota Twins on Friday night.

That AB in the 11th was the subject of much discussion in the Baseball Info Solutions scoring room last night. With men on first and second, none out, why weren't the A's bunting? Earlier in the evening, Bobby Crosby had executed the A's first sacrifice bunt of the year. Now granted, some of the desire for the bunt last night was due to the desire to have the game end so we could go to bed, but in general, if you are going to bunt, this is the perfect situation to use the sacrifice. If the bunt is successful, the opposition either has to bring the infield and the outfield in, or walk the next batter and hope for a double play. While Byrnes is off to a good start this year, over his career he's basically an average hitter. It's not like the A's had Barry Bonds at the plate. I'd hate to see that play in the first inning, but in the 11th inning of a tie game it makes a lot of sense.

But the strategy eventually worked for the A's. Bradford was able to keep Minnesota scoreless until Terry Mulholland made a mistake. We were sitting there wondering how Terry Mulholland could pitch so well against the A's. Let's face it, Terry hasn't been good since 1993. He's so old, I don't remember when he was young. And yet for 3 2/3 innings last night the A's could not manage a run off him. On the penultimate pitch of the game, a 3-1 count to Byrnes, Mulholland a perfect pitch on the lower inside corner. The ball got just enough of the plate in just the right spot. I turned to the person scoring the game and said something like, "Watch him hang the next pitch." And sure enough, Byrnes got the phattest pitch you'll ever see and crushed it. Am I psychic? No. Lucky? Absolutley. Maybe I just solved a complex pattern recognition problem. But it's nice to be right once in a while. :-)

Bryan at Against the Grain brings strikeouts into the unproductive outs argument.

Strike outs are the worst thing a hitter can do, because even if you ground out weakly or hit a soft-fly you have somechance of getting on-base. Watch a game and see how many jam-shot singles there are. Not every hit is a line-drive. Strike outs are an evil byproduct of drawing walks, because just by nature the more pitches you see the more times you're going to hit with two strikes. So strikeouts aren't as bad as old-school baseball guys may have believed, but they are still probably a lot worse than many SABRmetricians or SABRquixotics or whatever you want to call them believe.

The thing that's bothered me for a number of years is that strikeouts appear to matter much more to a pitcher than a hitter. In other words, high strikeouts are one indicator that a pitcher is very good, but high strikeouts are not an indicator that a batter is very bad. I believe the basic reason for this is power; it's hard to hit HR off good pitchers, but players who strike out a lot tend to hit for power, too. As I've written before, I believe there are situations when trying to put the bat on the ball is much for important than trying to hit one out of the park. But in general, it's okay for hitters to swing hard, even if they miss a lot, because the results when they don't miss are so impressive.

Steve Bonner has some ideas on how the Yankees should shake up the order. I left my thoughts in his comments.

I agree with most studies that batting orders, over a 162 game season, don't really matter. But tonight I saw an example of bad lineup construction potentially losing a game for the Giants.

Alou likes to bat Bonds fourth. That means Bonds is going to lose a few plate appearances every year because of games where the player batting third makes the final out. Tonight, with two out in the ninth and trailing by two, the Giants loaded the bases against Trevor Hoffman. Instead of having the best hitter on the team come up in that spot, Michael Tucker got the honor keeping the game alive. Hoffman got Tucker on three pitches. I suppose the Padres might have walked Bonds in the that situation, but there's a good chance they would have pitched to him as well. We'll never know due to Alou's lineup selection.

The Twins Geek looks at how April would be an ideal time for the Twins to try a four-man rotation. There's only one day in April on which they would need a fifth starting pitcher.

This, by the way, is something I don't really understand about how clubs use their rotations. If a pticher needs four days off, then why push them back another day by starting your #5 guy if you have a day off? Someone is likely to blow up in the 2nd inning, so in that time frame, just use the #5 guy as your long reliever.

Update: Redbird Nation and Go Cardinals agree that a four-man rotation would improve the Cardinals.

There is a discussion going on at Baseball Primer on Mike Needham's Scattershot article, discussed here.

Mike Needham of Williams College penned this piece for Scattershot Magazine, in which he explores why the A's lose the big games. He comes to the same conclusion as others, that the A's don't play small ball.

Obviously there is no way to assure that a team will score five runs every day, but it would be reasonable for a general manager to sacrifice some of his team’s ability to maximize its total run output if that would increase the chances of scoring five runs on a given day rather than only two. That is precisely what playing small ball attempts to accomplish. By trading an out to move a runner over to second base, the team has logically increased its chances of scoring one run, at the expense of a bigger inning. This type of baseball, therefore, increases a team’s ability to avoid being shut down completely on offense at the expense of blowing the other team out with an offensive onslaught.

Given the quality of pitching in the playoffs and the relative scarcity of runs as a result, building a team that deemphasizes speed and small ball becomes even more of dangerous in the post-season. Hit-or-miss offenses like the Athletics’ become far riskier in the playoffs. This fact largely explains the A’s inability to meet with the same success in the playoffs that they enjoy in the regular season.

Let me state this as clearly as I can. The A's lost the ALDS this year because of two base-running blunders in game 3. It had nothing to do with small ball vs. big ball. It had to do with the A's baserunners being stupid.

The A's lost in 2002 because their pitcher didn't deliver. The offense was fine vs. the Twins.

The A's lost in 2001 because Derek Jeter made a play that no one thought he could make (and Jer. Giambi didn't slide). And they lost in 2000 because, as Needham points out, Long dropped the ball:t all started with one terrible half-inning in 2000. The Oakland A’s – a young team whose highest paid player wouldn’t make the top-10 of their opponent’s salaries – were coming off a Game 4 trouncing of the New York Yankees and looking to close out the improbable victory at home. Then, just one half-inning into the game, A’s centerfielder Terrance Long drops an easy fly ball. The Yankees go on to score six runs that inning and the A’s – the American League’s second best team behind the White Sox – lose the series.

So that's two on pitching and defense, and two on base running blunders. The real problem with the A's offense is that they have a high-OBA, low-BA offense. So if they go up against a team that doesn't walk many batters, they are reduced to a low BA offense. And, by the way, the A's are 10 for 10 in stolen bases the last four years in the playoffs, and were 3 for 3 against the Red Sox. They use the steal wisely.

Jim Storer writes:

The Enrique Wilson thing is bugging the hell out of me.

First, he's 10-20 lifetime against Pedro, including 7-8 this year. Well that means that he was 3-12 against Pedro before this year! The sample size is so small as to be utterly meaningless, yet Joe Torre is essentially asking us to believe that in the span of one season, the futility infielder has developed from a .250 hitter (3-12) to a Cobb-like .500 hitter against one of the greatest pitchers of our generation. I submit that the career .250 average against Pedro before this year was actually more representative of Wilson's abilities than is the .500 average going into today, although both sample sizes are so small as to be virtually irrelevant to an analysis of Wilson's underlying ability to hit.

Second, notwithstanding the foregoing, he'll probably go 3-4 with 5 RBI because Torre's so damn lucky! But seriously, this is an example of the type of institutional arrogance and hubris which renders the Yankees so loathsome as an organization. They fully expect stupid moves like starting Wilson against Pedro to work, and when they somehow do work on occasion, accept this as further proof of their organizational genius, when in fact it is simply dumb luck.

It's bad enough that the Yankees are an extremely talented ballclub, but it's really frustrating that they're just so lucky, too. Torre is an excellent leader, motivator, disciplinarian and manager of men, but he is a below-average tactician who has been very lucky, and has largely been spared from the adverse consequences which should have resulted from his questionable strategic decisions.

Indeed!

The Cub Reporter has the Cubs pitching rotation for the remainder of the season.

In looking at the Twins lineup for tonight's game, I'm surprised to see Corey Koskie and his .390 OBA batting 7th, while Denny Hocking and his .316 OBA bat 2nd. A similar thing is going on in the Red Sox game, where Bill Mueller and his .396 OBA bat 8th, and Todd Walker and his .323 OBA bat 2nd. Are we still in the Ralph Houk mode, where second basemen have to bat at the top of the lineup?

Peter Gammons has an excellent column over at ESPN.com on the pennant races and how they are more interesting because all teams have flaws this year. I agree. Usually at this point the the American league we pretty much know who is going to the playoffs. But you have two distinct races involving seven teams, and at this point, I would not dare to pick the four that will be in at the end. Although the NL is a little more clear, the Central and Wild Card are up for grabs, although the wild card this morning is looking more like a battle between the Phillies and Marlins than the eight way scrum of a week ago.

The part of the article I like the most, however, is Beane and Baird talking about hitting and pitching today:

Watching the Angels outhit the Yankees, Twins and Giants last season, and watching what magnificent offensive teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees do to opposing pitchers, has raised another criticism -- that pitching is simply dreadful. Two American League general managers think that's not the case. "I actually think there's a lot of really good young pitching coming along today in both leagues, a new cycle," Oakland's Billy Beane said. "The problem is that hitters have improved so much the pitching numbers don't show it."

"I would agree that there's not enough pitching," Kansas City's Allard Baird said, "but there isn't enough good pitching to contain all the improvements in offense throughout the game. Twenty years ago, the theory on hitting was to be aggressive, swing the bat and that it couldn't be taught. That's completely changed.

"Hitting is being taught today, better than ever before," Baird said. "Watch the approaches many hitters take today. They're taught to go deep in the count, to get the pitch they can handle, and more and more hitters have learned to not be afraid to hit with two out. The game is so much more aware of on-base percentage than years ago, it isn't funny. Look how well so many hitters can take the ball out over the plate and put it in play hard. Hitters now have video, they are schooled in pitch recognition and visual training, they are bigger and stronger and able to manipulate the bat better than ever. The bats are better, lighter, better-balanced, specifically made for individual hitters."

While the league on-base percentages don't show any real difference from 1989 to 1995 to 2003, it is clear to anyone who watches games that, as Beane says, "baseball has realized that one of the reasons Ted Williams was regarded as the greatest hitter of his time is that he realized all this. What we see today is the Williams-ization of baseball, and that's going to make a lot of good pitchers look mediocre.

"The game is all about control of the 17-inch triangle," Beane said. "Hitters and pitchers. A couple of years ago we broke down every pitch in our games, and we found that Jason Giambi and Edgar Martinez really only hit in half the strike area, never outside it. The great pitchers like Pedro Martinez and Tim Hudson dominate in the strike zone because they throw in it consistently early in counts, but they get hitters out out of the strike zone. Hitters who force pitchers to stay in the strike zone are productive, and pitchers who take hitters out of the strike zone dominate." So when Beane sees a Joe Blanton with a 178-26 strikeout-walk ratio in 168 2/3 innings in his first full professional season, he sees someone likely to be in the big leagues sometime next season.

This makes a lot more sense than juiced ball theories. Great information. Read the whole thing.

Yesterday, it was JD Drew. Today, it's Marcus Giles. Has Gene Mauch been going around performing Vulcan Mind Melds^TM on people? These are good hitters, and they were batting against poor pitchers. Please, please please, let them hit!

Bo Hart doubled to lead off the game for the Cardinals, after which, La Russa had J.D. Drew sacrifice him to third. The announcers are saying that the wind is blowing in, so they think it will be a low scoring game. I disagree with this for a number of reasons.

1. Drew is a lefty, so if he pulls he ball, he's likely to move the runner to third.


2. Drew is a good hitter, so there's a good chance he'll get on base and give Pujols more baserunners to drive in.


3. It just doesn't seem right to waste an out that early in the game.

Luckily, it worked for La Russa as Pujols hit a deep fly ball that was knocked down by the wind, but dropped by Alou as he lost it in the sun. Cards lead 1-0 and are still threatening in the first.

Okay, I don't understand this at all. With a man on first and 1 out, Tino Martinez sacrificed a man to 2nd. Tino had 1 sacrifice with the Yankees, and that was in 1996. He had one last year, and this was his 2nd this year. But he's your number six hitter, a first baseman. He's supposed to be able to advance runners with long hits. Luckily for LaRussa, it worked out, as the Cubs walked Renteria to pitch to the light hitting Chris Widger, who singled in a run. I can't wait to see the explanation for this one.

The Expos, leading the Giants 1-0 in the 7th, had men on 1st and 3rd with one out and the pitcher, Javier Vazquez batting. This surprised me; I figured you'd pinch hit for Vazquez in this situation. But Robinson obviously wanted Javier to finish the game. So Robinson called for a hit and run. Vazquez made contact and hit a chopper. With the runner moving, the Giants had no chance at a DP, and the ball was hit too slowly to get the runner at home. So Vazquez grounds out, gets an RBI, extends his lead, and he's still in to finish the game. Robinson must have a lot of confidence in Vazquez's ability to put the ball in play. He's only struck out 4 times in 48 AB this year.

The Yankees still have Williams batting 2nd tonight. Soriano is 8th. Until his power comes back, that's right. I just hope that when his power does come back, the Yankees realize he's a better #4 hitter than a #1 hitter.

McCarver noted that La Russa started seven righties vs. Seo today, and noted that was unusual. What McCarver didn't point out is that righties have done better against Seo this year than lefties have.

Seo, 2003	Vs. LHB	Vs. RHB
BA against	.238	.303
OBA against	.303	.333
Slug against	.357	.465

Tom Glavine was like this from the left side, and I always wondered why managers didn't start more lefties against him. Kudos to La Russa for this move. They're up 1-0 in the first on a Pujols HR.

The Yankees are doing something tonight that I think they should have been doing all year. With Soriano sitting down, Jeter is leading off and Bernie Williams is batting 2nd. Posada is hitting cleanup. I've thought for a long time that at this point in their careers, Bernie would be better at the top of the order and Soriano better batting cleanup. Jeter led off with a double; it will be interesting to see if Bernie has a good game (made an out in his first PA) if Soriano will bat in the cleanup spot when he returns.

I'm watching the Yankee game right now, and Jim Kaat a couple of times has pooh-poohed Beane and Bill James by name. I also read an article in the unofficial Red Sox magazine that you can get outside the ballpark that did the same. The thesis of the argument is that OBA isn't everything. Fine. But neither of these people try to actually prove that. Kaat's talking about the psychology of pitchers, and how you have to look at that makeup. But if a pitcher doesn't have a good psychological makeup, you'd think he wouldn't have a good opposition OBA, and that you'd see that in the stats. Besides, if Kaat had actually read Moneyball, he'd know that there is a standard psych test given to players these days.

The article (which I don't have, sorry) said things like "Barry Bonds had a .700 OBA but the Angels won." Huh? That's apple and oranges. Look at the team OBA (Giants, .359, Angels, .370). Doesn't that tell you a lot more? The other thing that got me was a statement that teams should look for role players who are tough outs. Again, huh? Isn't a tough out a person who gets on base a lot? Or is it just a person who makes a lot of outs, but has 10 pitch AB all the time?

The level of writing and announcing on this subject is sometimes amazingly bad.

Update: A mistake in the original post that had the Giants with a better WS OBA than the Angels has been corrected.

I just wanted to confirm this post from yesterday. The Yankees will be skipping Claussen in the Red Sox series.

Brian Schneider went 2 for 3 for the Expos tonight. He's now batting .248, but with a .355 OBA and a .450 slugging percentage. Michael Barrett, the other catcher, is hitting .153 with a .220 OBA and a .277 slugging percentage. They have split time pretty evenly behind the plate. Why? Why not make Schneider the regular catcher?

If you look at the ERA when catching, it becomes clear. Barrett's pitchers have a 3.51 ERA, Schneider's have a 4.33 (including the shutout tonight). That's 0.8 runs per nine innings. For Schneider, he'd need to create 129 more runs than Barrett to make up for his pitchers ERA. That's not going to happen. So both catch. Interestingly, neither makes much of a difference to Vazquez and Vargas. So Barrett can catch the hurlers who need his help, and Schneider can catch the guys who can use the offensive support.

Brad Rigby writes:

Your assertion that the DH should be the best hitter on the team, bar none, ("DHs should be doing at least as well as the first basemen.") seems a bit suspect to me. Certainly batting requires different skills from fielding, but the two overlap at least a little bit, don't they? The best athlete on the team naturally will be more likely to be the best hitter on the team, and if he's the best athlete on the team, the team will naturally want him in the field. The best illustration of this would be A-Rod, but I will admit he's the exception to the rule.

So let me postulate the existence of two players, A and B. Other than the speed they run, they are exactly equal -- same attitude, same bat speed, same patience at the plate, same resilience to injury, same ability to judge a ball in flight, etc. Yes I realize this is simplistic, but hypotheticals usually are. A just happens to be able to run faster than B. Let's say that A and B are far and away the best offensive players on their team, but neither are particularly good defensively. Which one do you put in the field? A, of course, because he'll be able to cover more ground in left field. But he's better offensively; because of his speed, he'll be able to leg out more doubles and infield hits.

Replace speed with strength, or mental acuity, or whatever, and I think you can see how the better hitter will probably be in the field. And a final reason better hitters are in the field rather than DH'ing -- the best hitter on the team might be a guy who too much pride to be 'just a DH', and insists on playing in the field, so to keep their star happy, the club humors him.

Now the counter-argument to using the most valuble hitter in the field is that he might get injured there -- who knows what career numbers Griffey Jr. would have if he'd spent his whole career as a full-time DH?

I have no quibbles with making younger players DH's; indeed that portion of your argument makes perfect sense to me. Certainly your example of Edgar is a perfect illustration; John Jaha comes to mind as well.

Let me say that off the top of my head, I disagree with this. I believe the flaw in the logic is assuming that the faster of the two would be the defensive player. Brad assumes this because he thinks the faster one will be put in left field, but if they are the best offensive players and the worst defensive players, then you put one at first base, where speed is not very important.

And by Brad's description, you are talking about a very small difference between the players. It's not like the speed of the faster player is going to add that many hits.

Secondly, the best athlete on the team may not be the best hitter. Cecil Fielder was the best hitter on the 1990 Tigers. I don't think he was the best athlete. Going back even further in history, Ernie Lombardi was one of the great hitters of all time, and no one would ever consider him the best athlete on the team.

Who's the best hitter on the Yankees? Giambi. Who's the best athlete? Probably Soriano or Matsui. Being the best hitter requires a good batting eye. Yes it requires you to be strong, but if you see the ball and meet it, you are going to hit it hard.

Let me give you a concrete example. Do you know who can drive a golf ball the farthest among the folks at ESPN? Karl Ravech. Karl is not a big guy. He's not the best athlete. But Karl has a great swing. He keeps his eye on the ball, he stays relaxed, and he hits it a mile.

A few years ago I was down at Disney World for spring training, and we went over to watch the Braves play the Mets. We were on the field for batting practice, and I was watching Piazza and Olerud hit. Piazza was all strength. To watch him hit up close, it looked like every muscle in his body was working to hit the ball hard. His drives were amazing. John Olerud on the other hand, was effortless. His swing was smooth and fluid. Where Piazza looked like he was willing all his strength through his bat, Olerud bat's was part of his being.

My point is that there are many different ways to be a successful hitter. You can be all athleticism and muscle, like Piazza. You can have the good batting eye and smooth swing of John Olerud. You can be a fat tub of goo like Cecil Fielder, or keep the body of a 20 year-old your whole career, like Rickey Henderson. Not all great hitters look like the greatest athletes.

So yes, on an individual team, it's possible that the better fielder will be the better hitter. But my guess is that you will always find someone who's a little better that can only hit.

Barron Sopchak writes about this post:

Your post about how AL teams need to find young hitters to DH seems to already have been implemented in Toronto. Josh Phelps is a 25 year old hitter, who appears to have little to no value in the field. This looks like what the A's did with Jeremy Giambi, too. I think it's likely that Matt Stairs would also have DH'ed in Oakland if John Jaha hadn't still been effective.

I think the lesson we learn from this is that if you think something should be done a certain way, look at Oakland (and Toronto) and see if they're already doing it. :)

Yes, and soon we'll be saying that about the Red Sox.

I just updated this post.

Barry Bonds comes up against Keith Foulke with two out and none on in the top of the ninth, Oakland leading 6-5. The A's intentionally walk Bonds! Foulke will pitch instead to Galarraga. I don't like that strategy at all. I hope Andres takes one deep.

Update: Galarraga hits a deep foul ball down the right field line that is caught for the third out. A's win, 6-5.

Matt Welch writes about Bill James and the book Moneyball. (Link via Instapundit). I like the way Matt refers to himself as a Jamesian. I, too, consider myself a Jamesian.

I just picked up my copy of Moneyball and I'll be writing more about it when I'm done reading.

Robert Saunders writes about Moneyball:

The last chapter of the book got me thinking about the problem the A's face (and any team faces) in a short series: luck. If their success is assured in the long-run but not the short-run, I wonder if the A's then represent this decade's version of the 90s Braves, only emphasizing offense more than pitching.

And, if that's the case, I wonder if for post-season series whether some deviation from long-run strategy is not only sensible but mandatory. Just as fast-breaking offenses in other sports slow down the games in basketball or as Dallas this year even changed defenses as an adaptation, I wonder if there aren't circumstances where it makes sense to deviate from the "no small ball" rules.

For example, while the typical steal after a game opening hit or walk might have a negative impact on runs, I wonder if there are not circumstances when given who's pitching/catching, who's on base, who's at the plate, etc. might not auger for a steal. Or even sometimes a sacrifice bunt. Just because on average a strategy is poor, doesn't mean there aren't circumstances when it is advantageous and that you'd prefer to have the runs on the board as a hedge against luck.

For a long time I've felt tha the job of a manager is use players in a way that maximizes the players abilities. So if you have a pitcher who's good, but not great, try to get him more starts against the teams that don't hit well. If you have a batter with great power but poor on-base numbers, put him down in the order behind the OBA guys so he can drive in runs. If you have a pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners, but also gets a lot of ground balls, make sure you have the best middle infield defense you can behind him. And all of these decisions are based on who your opponent is, what stadium you are in, the health of others on the team, etc.

Now, during a season, I would think a team's management would come up with an overall strategy, which would be smart to include "minimize little ball." However, there are going to be days when you walk into a tough pitcher's park (Dodger Stadium) or you are facing a great pitcher (link Pedro) or both (Kevin Brown at Dodger Stadium). On those days, a manager needs to realize that the three-run HR is not going to be plentiful and should adjust his strategy to try to create more opportunities to score.

You don't throw the play book away automatically in the playoffs, but you sure should be willing to make adjustments to it. And it's a good idea to do something a little different, just to keep from being predictable. But unless the situation calls for little ball, I would not switch to it just for the sake of switching.

Rob Neyer follows up on last week's piece on the Blue Jays moving to a four-man rotation, now that they've scrapped the idea.

Mariano Rivera got himself into a little trouble, allowing two hits and had runners at 2nd and 3rd when Baker went Choi to the plate. I think most managers would have walked the slugging lefty to face righty Ramon Martinez. But Torre let Rivera face Choi, and Mariano came up with the K to end the game. I like to see pitchers who aren't afraid to go after hitters, even though in that situtation it's probably best to walk the batter.

In my previous post, I said that I disagreed with this statement by Rob Neyer:

The less-mentioned reason is that few players can both hit many home runs and steal many bases.

Now, I don't disagree with it on a factual basis. Through the end of the 2002 season, only 176 players had had 100 HR and 100 SB. Only 33 were 200-200. But the skills are not mutually exclusive.

I believe that it is a mistake to equate SB with speed. There have been fast runners who were poor basestealers. Brett Bulter, who was great at beating out infield grounders and drag bunts, was not a great basestealer. His career SB% was only 68.5%, barely over break even. Bernie Williams is clearly a fast player, but he's even worse, having been thrown out 80 times in 220 attempts, 63.6%

My point is that stolen bases have as much to do with timing as with speed. Look at Mickey Mantle. Mickey rates 20th in all-time SB% at 80.1%. He was only caught 38 times in 191 attempts. And he had bad knees his entire career. George Brett had some great precentage years stealing bases (although not for his career). George knew when to run and when not to run.

My point is, you can be strong enough, fast enough and smart enough to both hit for power and swipe bases successfully. Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar and Joe Morgan all combined both talents. Soriano is doing it now. It can be done.

There's also one point I believe Neyer's article missed. At some point, teams decided they didn't want to allow stolen bases. They had pitchers develop slide steps and make more throws to keep batters close at first. So the players who need that extra 1/2 second to get to second no longer have it.

But it will all change once again. At some point, pitching will get ahead of hitting, and scores will go down. When that happens, when each run becomes more precious, you'll see the SB return. And we'll be complaining that no one hits 60 HR anymore. :-)

I don't have time to comment now, but Rob Neyer has a good column on the relationship between HR and stolen bases. I want to disagree with him on the statement:

The less-mentioned reason is that few players can both hit many home runs and steal many bases.

I need more time to prepare my argument, and I won't have that until later tonight.

I'm looking at the Mets boxscore, and see Rey Sanchez batting 2nd. I don't understand this at all. With Rey Ordonez's surge of power, Sanchez is easily the worst offensive player in the game. Almost any other player in the lineup would be a better choice. When are they going to move Wigginton to the top of the lineup?

Tony La Russa left Matt Morris try to finish the game tonight. On his 120th pitch, Jeff Kent took him deep to give the Astros a 3-2 win. Did La Russa leave him in too long? The bullpen had pitched four innings over the last two nights. Morris did get the first two batters of the inning on 2 pitches, although Bagwell's fly ball almost went out. Once Berkman singled, though, Morris wasn't looking that strong. I think most managers would have lifted him at that point, and rightly so.

I just finished Mike Carminati's post on the DH. I'm glad he brought in Bill James Historical Abstract Article. I've tried to explain that article to anti-DH people over the years, and they just don't get it. They really think that managers do have choices in situations where you have to bunt with or pinch-hit for the pitcher.

Having the pitcher bat doesn't increase strategy, it increases the amount of work a manager has to do. Managers have to manage their benches more carefully in the NL, but that's not really strategy. It's work. And if that's what you want to see more of, that's fine.

Personally, I'm pretty agnostic on the subject. I wouldn't mind seeing both leagues have the same rule, but I really don't care which way it goes. I've had fun watching pitchers bat. I was at Three Rivers Stadium for the last series between the Pirates and the Giants there. Barry Bonds hit his last HR in one game, setting a record for most HR at Three Rivers. In the second game I saw, Rueter was pitching for the Giants. In his first two AB, he had a double and a single and two RBI. When he came up for the third time, I stood up and yelled at the top of my lungs, "Walk him!" Given that there were about 5000 people in the stands, I'm sure I was heard. Sure enough, Rueter drops in a double for two more RBI. I get up again and yell, "I told you you should have walked him!" which drew a laugh from the fans in our section. You just can't get that with the DH unless you have Rey Ordonez on your team. :-)

So if the AL wants to get rid of it, fine. If the NL wants to adopt it, fine. If there's no change, well, I can live with that, too. In the meantime, I'll enjoy the hitting of Edgar Martinez and Greg Maddux. :-)

Mike's Baseball Rant has a post on the 30th anniversary of the DH. I'm off to class, so I don't have time to read and comment right now. I'll get to it tonight.

With the Blue Jays pitching lefty Mark Hendrickson, Torre has inserted Zeile and Trammell for Ventura and Johnson. Zeile is batting 2nd; although you don't think of him as a #2 hitter, Zeile's OBA has been in the .350's or higher in every season since 1997. It's not Jeter's OBA, but it's not bad in front of Giambi. And of course, he homers in the first inning to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead.

I thought this was telling, from last night's Giants recap:

Jose Cruz Jr. singled and Rich Aurilia walked ahead of Bonds' homer.

It's hard to pitch around Bonds with men on base (although some managers have done that). The best way to keep the bat in Barry's hands is to get someone on first base.

The Yankees have moved Nick Johnson into the #2 slot and are batting Wilson 9th today. We'll see if that remains true when Almonte starts.

I like the move because I think Johnson has the potential to have a great OBA, although he hasn't reached that potential yet. When I've seen him play, he does work the count well. It's a big opportunity for Johnson to prove that he's a hitter to respect.

With Jeter likely out for a while, what should the Yankees lineup look like? My feeling is to move Williams from 4th to 2nd, then move everyone else one slot and stick the new SS ninth. I would be very disappointed in Torre if he puts the SS in the 2nd slot just to keep everyone else consistent.

By the way, Soriano has a double and homer tonight. When is Torre going to realize that his power belongs in the middle of the lineup?

Down three runs, your #9 hitter leads off with a double, why do you bunt? You need runs, you need men on base, why are you bunting?

Jon Miller thinks Eckstein was bunting for a hit, although the official scorer gives him a sacrifice.

Kennedy scores on a grounder. When you play for one run, that's often all you get.

From Daniel Shamah:

Erstad bunting?! Valdes gives up a single to the first hitter, Texas has awful pitching, and you give them a free out. I love Scoscia as much as the next guy, but bad call.

Correct, Daniel. Unless it's Pedro on the mound, I don't think bunting with the second batter is a good idea. Both teams did it tonight, although I think Everett was bunting for a hit. Maybe Gene Mauch's spirit is inhabiting the field tonight. :-)