Strategy Archives

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the strategy of a switch hitter facing a switch pitcher.

Joe Torre still loves the sacrifice.

The Mariners-Blue Jays game ended in interesting fashion on Monday night. In the top of the tenth, the Mariners loaded the bases, with one out, bringing up Miguel Cairo. Cairo executed a perfect suicide squeeze, and the Mariners took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the inning. The Blue Jays then loaded the bases with none out. Rather than playing for the tie and keeping the infielder back for the double play, McLaren pulled the entire infield in:

Lyle Overbay grounded into a double play, first to home to first, followed by a walk and a flyball by David Eckstein. Game over.

So McLaren, if you will, played small ball in each of the bases loaded situation and it payed off for him. The rule is you play for the win on the road, but he greatly increased the chance of a two run single to try to cut down a run at the plate. The strategy worked, the Mariners gain a rare victory, and the Blue Jays move into a three-way tie for last place in the AL East.

I notice Micah Owings is batting in the eighth slot today. The managers who do that usually are trying to get a second leadoff hitter in the ninth spot. However, it appears that Melvin simply feels that Owings is a better hitter than Romero.

Given the way Owings is pitching in the first, he might not get a chance to bat. He's already allowed two hits, a walk and a run.

After promising us a lineup shakeup, Leyland did very little.

Catcher Ivan Rodriguez is now hitting in the ninth spot.

Third baseman Carlos Guillen is now hitting third and new leftfielder Gary Sheffield is in the six-hole for tonight's game against the Red Sox at Comerica Park.

La-di freakin' da. The biggest move is that Jacque Jones days as a Tiger are near an end as they team designated him for assignment.

Jim Leyland vowed to shake up the Tigers batting order tonight to try to get the offense going again. The rumor is that Granderson will move into the middle of the order:

Granderson hit 23 homers last season, and he now has five homers in the 1 1/2 weeks since he returned from the disabled list. When Leyland has spoken about Granderson someday hitting in the middle of the lineup, he has mentioned how as Pirates manager he had Barry Bonds hit leadoff for the first four seasons of his big-league career before he moved him to the middle of the order.

Granderson's last 23 homers have been solo homers. Leyland might be eager to see Granderson get more at-bats with runners on base.

Leyland moved Bonds? I remember it, Barry lost his arbitration suit before the 1990 season because he didn't drive in enough runs. He then asked to be moved to the middle of the lineup so he could basically make more money. I really don't think Jim woke up one day and said, "Barry Bonds should bat fifth."

If indeed Leyland moves Granderson lower in the order, the Lineup Analysis Tool will agree with him. Based on Tigers stats through Sunday, Guillen should lead off and Granderson should bat fourth. I wonder how close Leyland's lineup tonight will be to this model?

Here's another reason teams shouldn't carrry twelve pitchers.

For the second day in a row, the Athletics put Kurt Suzuki in the leadoff spot. In the two games he's reached base by a hit or walk four times and scored three runs. He has the highest OBA on the team among regulars with very little power. It makes perfect sense to bat him first, and so far it's worked out. The A's won 13-2 last night and 6-5 this afternoon.

The Brewers are flipping Braun and Fielder in the order today, at the players request.

Update: The flip doesn't get a chance to make a difference as Gabe Kapler hits his fourth home run of the season to make the score 2-0 Brewers. In his last two season with Boston he only hit three.

Jim Leyland batted Ivan Rodriguez in the leadoff spot, hoping to improve the catcher's selectivity:

"I think it pumps him (Rodriguez) up a little bit, (besides) being a good thing for our team," Leyland said. "You've got a Hall of Famer like that who went to the eighth hole without complaining. That's not the easiest thing to do, so I think it (batting leadoff at times) is good for him psychologically.

"If he continues to lay off bad balls, there's a chance I'll lead him off a lot against left-handers."

Ivan was never that selective a hitter. However, Granderson was really terrible against lefties in 2007. While Rodriguez hit .302 vs. lefties in 2007, he did not draw one walk. Still, I have no problem platooning batting order slots, I just think Leyland could find someone better than Pudge to put at the top of the order.

Patrick Sullivan looks at what American League teams did on and after 3-0 counts in 2007. Unless you're the Mariners, it's not a bad pitch to hit. It's also a very good pitch to take.

Cobra Brigade breaks down what's wrong with Lou Piniella's decision to bat Soriano second. The idea is to get Soriano to run less until his legs heal:

The fact that Soriano's legs are bothering him doesn't bother me as much as the fact that A) he's going to be hitting in a spot in the lineup where he's supposed to be able to take pitches and move runners over, B) that Soriano is going to be a double play threat anytime Theriot is on base because his legs are bad, which leads me to.....C) this means that Ryan Theriot is going to be leading off this season...he of the .326 ob % and fading stamina last season. The silver lining in all of this, if there is one, is that as long as Soriano hits 35+ homers and drives in 100+ runs, his contract still sort of makes sense in the grand scheme of things. Besides that, this really makes no sense at all.

It seems to me that the solution to moving Soriano out of the lead-off spot is to move Kosuke Fukudome to the second spot and move Soriano to fifth in the lineup....or move Derrek Lee to the second spot, have Aramis Ramirez hit third, Fukudome fourth and Soriano fifth. That way you can get the most out of Soriano's power, which seems to be his last offensive asset, while not allowing his patented streakiness to crush any rallies the Cubs might have at the top of the order.

Soriano's strengths and weaknesses make him a better fifth hitter than a leadoff man, but he doesn't seem to bat as well in that slot. Teams are forced to bat him leadoff, where he doesn't belong, or suffer poor performance as Texas did.

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It's official, Jason Kendall is going to bat ninth for the Brewers:

"We've done studies on this," Yost said. "It's not just that we come up one day and say, 'You know, Jason Kendall's gonna hit ninth.'

"You've had a lot of smart people looking at it and crunching numbers and seeing if, numbers-wise, it made sense."

Those smart people decided that batting Kendall ninth, a departure from the conventional baseball wisdom of batting the pitcher in the final spot, did make sense. They thought it gave the Brewers an edge, which should translate into an opportunity to score more runs.

"More runs means more wins," Yost said. "Sometimes, you've gotta get outside the box a little bit."

Nice to see Yost willing to try something new.

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My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why it's a good idea to bat the pitcher eighth.

Tony La Russa will bat his pitchers eighth this season:

La Russa believes the move gives the Cardinals more opportunities to score runs. Having a position hitter in the nine hole makes No. 3 hitter Albert Pujols more like a cleanup hitter without dropping him in the lineup, which could possibly sacrifice an at-bat.

Given that Ned Yost said earlier that he would consider batting Kendall ninth, I'm working on why this makes sense for my next SportingNews.com article.

South Side Sox is afraid Jerry Owens will lead off for the White Sox in 2008 because he bunts well.

If the White Sox are going to be the championship team that the White Sox brain trust thinks they can be, one of the main reasons will be that Carlos Quentin and Josh Fields successfully made the leap to become very good offensive players. Jerry Owens at his very best might be an average center fielder, and as such, his presence as de facto leadoff hitter would seem to limit the teams playoff hopes versus a team with a fully-realized Carlos Quentin in the lineup.

Owens major league OBA is better than Quentin's. Carlos, however, was a monster in the minors while Owens is living up to his minor league numbers. The upside for Quentin in both getting on and hitting for power is way above what Owens might do.

Ned Yost is thinking of batting the pitcher eighth and Jason Kendall ninth:

But one of the most interesting of possible orders would have Ryan Braun batting second, a pitcher batting eighth and catcher Jason Kendall batting ninth. This idea isn't set yet, and it may not ever be used. It is just one of a flurry of ideas whizzing around inside the skipper's head. St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has done this some during the last few seasons.

Yost's reasoning is that he wants Braun to have more plate apperances, but still be able to have guys on in front of him. So with Kendall's ability to see pitches and get on base, it would essentially translate to Braun still batting third while racking up about 40 more plate appearances, as stats show. In this lineup, Prince Fielder would bat third in the order, but it would be like having him in the clean-up slot.

Notice that Kendall batting ninth is what's suggested by the Lineup Analysis Tool, although that tool puts Fielder second. Nice to see Yost thinking outside the box.

Thanks to Tom Goyne for the link.

Joe Aiello looks at who should be leading off for the Cubs.

Trey Hillman raises the possibility of batting Ross Gload third:

Hillman views Mark Teahen as the most likely No. 3 hitter but admits to giving serious thought to using Ross Gload in that role.

"I want backup options," Hillman said, "and I like Ross Gload, although he doesn't have a lot of experience (in that role). I like his swing."

...

"Now that I've seen his swing for a couple of days," he said, "just throw the stats out. I've seen his swing. It's short. It's compact. He doesn't have the pop of an Alex Gordon, nor the pop of a (Jose) Guillen, nor the pop of a (Mark) Teahen.

"But I like the swing, and I like the slug that comes with it -- the doubles. I'm not announcing him as our No. 3 hitter. But it's in the mix."

This sort of makes we wonder if Hillman has looked at some of the lineup models that show the number three slot isn't as important as it seems to be in the traditional lineup. The Lineup Analysis Tool puts Gload third in a few of its top twenty lineups for the Royals.

Voros McCracken notes base running isn't the problem for the White Sox this year. He also describes how the White Sox can build a team in which base running does matter.

Lou Piniella unveiled his opening day lineup yesterday. He's put two low OBA guys in front of his sluggers. Now, I know lineups don't matter that much, but why wouldn't you want DeRosa hitting second instead of Theriot?

Trey Hillman discusses his thoughts on the Royals lineup:

Sure, spring training is still more than two months away, and the roster could still undergo some major changes before the Royals convene in Surprise, Ariz. Also, Hillman's evaluations, he acknowledges, are culled primarily from scrutinizing DVDs.

None of that matters, does it?

Not to Hillman, whose initial plans include keeping David DeJesus in the leadoff role, anchoring Jose Guillen as the cleanup hitter and having Alex Gordon bat seventh.

That puts Gordon, Hillman insists, in an often-undervalued role.

"That seven hole seems to come up a lot in inning-ending situations," Hillman said. "If he makes an out, that just crushes you because you've got eight, nine and one in the next inning.

"You don't want the one guy coming up with the possibility of being the third out in an inning. I want to get to that No. 8 guy (the previous inning) so we can get to No. 2. You want to grind it out so you can get back and turn (the lineup) over again.

Batting with two out comes up just about as often for the six and eight hitters. Starting with the 2000 season, number six hitters saw 33.0% of their plate appearances with two out, number seven hitters 33.4%, number eight hitters 33.2%. It strike me there's a bit of flawed logic here. If you want your lineup to turn over often, then you want to get the most PA to your high OBA hitters. The fewer outs they make, the more every one else gets to hit. Number six hitters come to bat 2.8% more than number seven hitters, so getting Gordon more AB in the six hole should extend the offense just as well.

From the article, here's how Hillman's lineup looks (I'm assuming Gload bats sixth). It's a good lineup, scoring 5.013 runs per game. The best lineup for this group of players scores 5.104 per game, and there's only a 0.3 run difference between the best and worst lineup Hillman can construct. If you flip Gordon and Gload, it makes no difference.

Clint Hurdle employed an unusual double switch last night:

When he brought in Brian Fuentes to pitch the eighth, he pulled a double switch with center fielder Cory Sullivan, even though that meant Fuentes, who went into the seventh spot in the lineup, would hit before Sullivan.

With Philadelphia having only one left-handed reliever, J.C. Romero, Hurdle wanted to put Phillies counterpart Charlie Manuel in a bind.

Had he put Sullivan into the seventh slot, the Rockies would have had three left-handed hitters in a four-batter sequence.

As it turned out, Romero did come in to face Todd Helton with one out in the eighth and got Helton to fly out. After Garrett Atkins singled, left-handed-hitting Brad Hawpe bounced a single off the glove of diving second baseman Chase Utley.

Then, instead of having Sullivan coming up, Hurdle was able to call on the right-handed-hitting Baker, and Baker delivered the game-winning single in his postseason debut.

A big difference in the series was the performance of the bullpens. The Rockies showed that their relief corps is a force, allowing just one earned run in 11 2/3 innings of work. They allowed six hits and four walks while striking out ten. The Phillies were in for 9 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. And that doesn't include the Lohse's entrance with the bases loaded in which get gave up the grand slam to Matsui. Three of those runs get charged to the starter.

Finally, congratulations to Kaz Matsui on a tremendous series. He didn't turn out to be what the Mets expected, but in Colorado he's improved to a useful player. During the regular season in 2007, he hit much better in the day than at night, and with two day games in this series he just pounded the Phillies. He collected five hits, four for extra bases, including two triples and a grand slam.

The NLCS pits Mountain Standard Time versus Mountain Daylight Time. It also means the team with the highest run differential meets a team with a team outscored by their opponents. The action starts Thursday.

Albert Pujols was a late scratch for the Cardinals tonight. La Russa decided to replace him with Miguel Cairo. So where does he bat? Third of course. And he just knocked in a run.

I'm going to bang my head against a wall for a few minutes.

Bud Black employs the Gene Mauch strategy of bunting in the first inning to score one run. That gives the Padres the early lead, but I'm to see it against a pitcher with an ERA over 10. Big innings are an odds on favorite with someone like that on the mound.

Jason Giambi pinch hits for Molina, hitting the wall to put runners at second and third with one out in the eighth. Posada is the DH, but he's putting on catching gear, which means the Yankees would lose the designated hitter in a 1-1 game.

Damon breaks his bat and grounds out, holding the runners.

Update: It may not matter now. Jeter hits a home run into the third row of the Monster Seats and the Yankees lead 4-1. Schilling pitches a great game, but probably was left in one batter too long.

Update: Posada does indeed come in to catch. Chamberlain is in the lineup batting ninth.

Update: Mike Lowell homers off Joba Chamberlain to make the score 4-2. That's the first home run and first earned run allowed by Chamberlain. Lowell's really taken advantage of Fenway this season, with 13 of his 19 home runs coming at home.

Athletics fans are celebrating the first squeeze play in seven years.

I like the fact that Jim Leyland is treating this game against the Mariners tonight as a playoff game. With a 3-1 lead, Nate Robertson got into trouble with two outs in the second. The Tigers got the bullpen going as Nate worked his way out of the jam, allowing just one run. Leyland, however was ready to pull his starter if it looked like the Mariners might take a lead.

It starts innocently enough. I'll just use that extra pitcher when we don't have a day off for a couple of weeks. Before you know it, pitchers are complaining if they're made to pitch out of turn. And then, everyone has six-man rotations. Just say no to more starters.

I've never quite understood why, when pitching is bad, teams add more bad pitchers. Maybe they believe that the more they put on the roster, the more chance they have of getting lucky with one. To me, the opposite should be true. The fewer pitchers on the roster, the less chance you have of getting unlucky with a bad one.

Are there other things in life like this? I know people and businesses often try to fix problems by throwing more money at them, but eventually those don't work and you give up. Teams just keep moving down the path to more and more pitchers working less and less.

When the Red Sox picked up Eric Gagne, one reason bandied about was to shorten the game to six innings. With three pitchers capable of closing in the pen, one could pitch the seventh, one the eighth and one the ninth. So last night, Curt Schilling comes off the DL, pitches six strong innings, allowing two runs while striking out five, the comes out for the seventh. He then gives up a homer and a double. His pitch count was low, so I understand him starting the seventh, but wasn't the start of the seventh the perfect time to go to Gagne? On top of that, once you take him out with a man on second, isn't bringing Gagne a better move than Tavarez, who allowed the insurance run to score? Or is Francona only allowed to pitch Gagne with a lead so he can get a hold?

On another note, that insurance run scoring brought out the rule book:

Schilling departed in the seventh trailing, 3-2, after bantamweight Maicer Izturis hit his third home run of the season to open the seventh and slumping catcher Jeff Mathis (0 for 18) doubled. A fourth run was charged to Schilling when Reggie Willits, facing reliever Julian Tavarez, bunted Mathis to third and Chone Figgins lined a ball to Moss, who juggled it a couple of times before securing it in leather.

That ignited a mini-controversy, as Mathis had left well before Moss had full control of the ball, but the argument mounted by Francona didn't last much longer than the one Francona initiated after Ramirez was ejected.

The applicable section of the rulebook was Section 2.00, in which this stipulation is added under the definition of a catch: "Runners may leave their bases the instant the first fielder touches the ball." That would guard against outfielders deliberately breaking into a circus act, rather than the inadvertent performance by Moss.

The Angels win 4-2 and extend their AL West lead to four games over Seattle.

Tony La Russa started batting the pitcher eighth on Saturday. Here's what the lineup analysis tool says La Russa should use as a lineup. At least Tony is once again trying something that has some mathematical basis. What the Cardinals really need to do is get younger, however, as two of their three great players are tanking together.

In the previous post, I wondered if players like Curtis Granderson who don't get on base much but do pick up extra-base hits were useful as leadoff men. My gut has always been with players like Granderson and Soriano that their power was more useful lower in the lineup.

I'm going to look at how OBA and Slugging Percentage affect two stats, runs scored per game played (RperG) and runs scored per time on base (RperOB) for players batting in the leadoff slot. Note that OB for this study is hits+bb+hbp. I'm looking at players batting lead off since 2000, with at least 500 PA in the #1 slot. There were 90 such players found.

First we'll take a graphical look at these two stats as a function of OBA. (Click on the graph for a larger image.)

Getting on base greatly increases your ability to score score runs, but it has little to do with specific instances of scoring runs. Now look at the these two stats as a function of slugging percentage.

Notice that a point of slugging percentage does less than a point of OBA to increase scoring. But the more a player hits for power, the more likely they are to score once they reach base.

So given a team with poor leadoff choices, a power hitter in the slot can make up for his lack of getting on base by scoring more often once he is on. Of course, the Tigers have a very good candidate for a leadoff hitter in Placido Polanco, so I'm not sure this is the right choice for them.

Note that a good base stealer acts as a doubles hitter from the leadoff spot, so a low OBA player can make up for some of that by stealing with a high percentage. But the advantage of power is that you don't risk the out by trying to steal, the hit gets you in scoring position.

With the score tied at two in the bottom of the ninth, Ronny Paulino leads off the Pittsburgh half with a single against the Nationals. He reaches third on a sacrifice and a wild pitch, at which point Castillo comes in to pinch run and McLouth steps up, having pinch hit for the pitcher earlier in the game. Now McLouth strikes out in about one quarter of his plate at bats and has a .294 career OBA. The Nationals decide to walk him to set up the double play. In his career with a man on third and less than two out, he's 3 for 15 with two sac flies and nine strikeouts. Why not take a chance striking him out? It seems the odds are a lot higher than his driving in the run.

But he walks, Doumit walks on a full count, then Bautista hits a sacrifice fly to win the game anyway. So the IBB led to a better player getting a chance to hit and drive in the winning run. I can't call the IBB wrong; it just seems that McLouth is a bad enough hitter that it's worth the risk to pitch to him in that situation.

The Dodgers are going to move James Loney to first base, but they're going about it the wrong way:

Nomar Garciaparra is moving across the diamond.

After spending the past season and a half as the Los Angeles Dodgers' first baseman, Garciaparra will move to third base, perhaps as early as Friday.
"We're trying to get ourselves in a position where we can be the best we can be, and that option right now is there for us," manager Grady Little said Monday. "Nomar's 100 percent on board. He's been over there before. It's not a strange place for him."

It opens up a chance for streaking James Loney to play first base. Loney is hitting .429 since being recalled from the minor leagues June 10.

"This has a lot to do with the way James Loney is swinging the bat and the way he's playing, too," Little said. "The primary factor is to try to help us win games. And we feel like this is a move we want to give a shot at right now."

This is, of course, why Little was fired by the Red Sox. Nomar has an OBA of .316 and a slugging percentage of .332. Betemit OBA is higher than Nomar's slugging percentage; he's posting a .333 OBA and a .438 slugging percentage. So why is Nomar moving to third? Nomar's batting average is .275, Betemit .198. This would not happen if DePodesta was still the GM. Benching Nomar for Loney is the only move the Dodgers need to make. Betemit draws enough walks that he's okay OBA wise, and when he hits the ball it goes a long way. Some smart GM will snap up Wilson in a trade.

While I don't really understand playing Miguel Cairo at first base at all, there's really no excuse for batting him second, like today. Yes, he hits lefties better than righties, but it's not like he hits well against lefties.

Curtis Granderson hit a home run today for the Tigers, raising his slugging percentage to .578. Given that he hits for power and Polanco does a better job of getting on base, shouldn't Leyland reverse them in the order? Seven of Granderson's nine home runs were solo shots. It seems if he were batting behind someone with a good OBA, more of those home runs would come with men on base.

The Red Sox flipped Dustin Pedroia and Julio Lugo in the lineup last night, making the rookie second baseman the leadoff hitter:

You need only check one column on the stat sheet to understand why the move was made: Pedroia had an on-base percentage of .399, third on the team behind Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Lugo was at .274 (.276 in the leadoff spot, tied with Rocco Baldelli of the Devil Rays for worst leadoff OBP in the AL). Contrast that to Hanley Ramirez, the former Sox prospect who began the night with a .425 OBP while batting leadoff for the Marlins.

Some teams wind up with a position that they just can't fill correctly. The Mets were famous for a long time for not being able to find a steady third baseman. The Mariners tried a new left fielder every year. Now the Red Sox keeping rotating in a new shortstop every season. Lugo is way off his career averages (which really aren't leadoff quality), so the youngster gets the chance.

Correction: Mets third basemen, not first basemen.

With men on first and second and nobody out, Chase Utley sacrificed in the first inning against Barry Zito. Now, while I like the sacrifice more with men on first and second than just a man on first, Utley owns a .555 slugging percentage. The whole point of a slugger is to move runners a long way around the bases. Zito isn't exactly a lights out pitcher with an ERA over 4.00, so why was Utley bunting there? Seems like a big waste of an out.

Update: In the third inning, Utley faces the same situation, but this time strikes out.

Francona just brought in Javier Lopez to face Bobby Abreu. ESPN flashed the graphic that Bobby was 0 for 11 with three strikeouts against Javier. Of course, Abreu lines a solid single to right-center to put runners on first and third with New York down a run with one out. Just once I'd like to hear the announcers talk about how an 0 for 11 is really meaningless.

A good lineup is like a great comedy team. The straight man sets up the joke and the comedian supplies the punchline.

George: Say, you've got a pretty nice job here.
Gracie: Job? I could have had two jobs. This one at ten dollars a week and another one at forty dollars a week.
George: Then why did you take this job?
Gracie: Because I figure that if I lose a ten-dollar job instead of a forty-dollar job, I'll be saving thirty dollars.

The Padres setup and payoff worked perfectly today. Giles and Sledge reached base seven times from the 1-2 slots, and Gonzalez and Bard picked up six RBI right behind them on the way to a 7-3 win over the Nationals.

One big difference between comedy teams and baseball lineups, however, is that the straight man made more money. The comedians were often the more talented individual, but the skill needed to set up the jokes was difficult to find. In baseball, of course, it's the sluggers, not the table setters, who get the big bucks.

The Red Sox took both ends of the double header. Boston extends their lead over the Yankees to 9 1/2 games.

Bill James many years ago wrote about Earl Weaver employing a strategy of using his "B" lineup in the first game of a double header, and his "A" team in the second game. Since most teams do the opposite, Weaver thought he'd gain an advantage with the strategy. If he got lucky and won the first game, the team was more likely to sweep. If he lost the first game, he was more likely to split. I'm not sure how the probabilities work out; I assume it's very dependent on the strength of the opposing team.

Terry Francona appears to be using this strategy today. In game one, Hinske, Mirabelli and Cora are all starting, as is Tavarez. Leyland is using his regular lineup. We'll see how this works out over the day.

Alfonso Soriano started in the third slot in the lineup tonight, the first time this season not in the leadoff slot. He's taking the place of Derrek Lee:

Derrek Lee was sent back to Chicago for tests Sunday night after experiencing neck pains from Saturday's game.

"He had some neck spasms," manager Lou Piniella said. "When it's something that's involved with your neck, we wanted to check it out really good, so we sent him back to Chicago. Nothing serious. We think he'll be here (Tuesday). He's day to day, depending on how he is when he shows up."

So far so good as Soriano doubles and scores on a Ramirez single to put the Cubs up 1-0 in the first. Given Soriano's power, this is really a better spot for him to bat.

Update: Marquis singles in two runs in the second off Tom Glavine to put the Cubs up 3-0 on the Mets. Opposing pitchers are now 2 for 15 vs. Tom, and that made me wonder who's had the most trouble with opposing pitchers this season. It turns out Aaron Harang and Zach Duke both allowed six hits in fifteen at bats to pitchers. Both allowed two doubles, and Harang gave up a home run.

It looks like teams decided Barry Bonds is dangerous once again. The Rockies walked him three times last night, twice intentionally. Through games of 4/25, Barry saw just one IBB. In the last five games, however, he's received seven intentional passes. The walks didn't work last night as Barry scored twice and the Giants took home a 9-5 win over the Rockies.

Orlando Hudson picked up two hits today, including a double as the Diamondbacks defeated the Nationals 3-1. That puts Hudson's averages at .379/.441/.552. I know it's early, but I wonder why Melvin selected Hudson as his #3 hitter. Based on his career averages, he's one of the least likely hitters on the team for the job. I wonder if Arizona is looking at some of the Markov Model research that seems to indicate you don't need a great hitter batting third? Whatever the reason, Hudson certainly responded so far.

Freakonomics presents their annual baseball post with the suggestion that research underway there points to batter protection making a difference. However, make sure you read J.C. Bradbury's comment.

It's always seemed to me that protection should decrease the OBA of the batter protected, making it a counter productive strategy. Protection is supposed to prevent walks to a batter. But we know that if you take away walks, you reduce a player's OBA to his batting average, and for the great majority of players, that's a lower number.

Lou Piniella talked about his use of one-run strategies early in the game:

This is now the Lou Piniella era with the Cubs and you pretty much can forget about giving up outs.

There will be no "small" in his ball. Piniella believes in the offense going on the offensive.

"No, no, no," Piniella said when asked about sacrificing in the first inning on a cold day. "I like to bunt more, believe it or not, when we have a lead so we can add on. I like those situations better than any other time.

"I've never really bunted early. I'm going to run, hit-and-run, steal, double steal, but I don't like the idea of bunting early in a game. Late in the game with a 3-2 lead, 4-2 lead, you get the first couple of runners on, you're looking to tack on, I like the bunt then."

I like the idea of bunting later in the game with men on first and second and a weak hitter up. You put two men in scoring position and set up the sacrifice fly to score a run.

According to this article, the Tigers are planning on batting Ivan Rodriguez in the leadoff spot in 2007:

Rodriguez batted first against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Monday, something he has done seven times in 10 spring games. He has hit first in all four of his starts against left-handers, including Monday (Casey Fossum). He also has batted leadoff against three right-handers, including two accomplished men by the name of Roy (Halladay and Oswalt).

As with Leyland's lineup, the results are self-evident: Rodriguez is batting .429 this spring after a 2-for-3 in Monday's 3-2 win.

He hit a no-doubt home run to leftfield off Al Reyes. He lined a leadoff single to center and smacked a hard grounder to second in his final plate appearance.

He appears more selective -- and certainly less pull-conscious -- than last year. Still, it's difficult to tell whether Rodriguez has changed his approach because he's at the top of the order or whether he's simply hitting the ball better.

Or it's a small sample size. I could see leading off the 2004 Pudge, but the last two seasons his OBA is just .312. Maybe moving up to number will make him a more patient hitter, but my guess is that over time the real Rodriguez's abilities take over. Plus, the extra strain of catching the top of the first and running right back out to lead off might be too much for the older catcher. If Leyland tries this during the regular season, I don't think the experiment will last very long.

Bob Melvin talks about what he's not going to do with his lineup. It looks like he's planning on batting Hudson leadoff. Orlando posted the best OBA numbers of his career in 2006, and PECOTA puts him even higher in 2007. The lineup analysis tool makes him the second leadoff man, however, batting him ninth. I like the idea of Jackson leading off, but I also understand it's not going to happen.

All numbers in the lineup boxes are PECOTA projections, except for the pitchers, which are last year's numbers for the Diamondbacks.

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Ken Rosenthal look at the debate about batter protection in the context of the Phillies lineup. I found this interesting:

Howard points out the importance of the three hitters in front of him -- Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley -- getting on base.

During late June/early July 1992, George Bell went on a huge power streak. ESPN asked me to see if George was getting better protection from the hitters behind him. What I discovered was that the protection was coming from the hitters in front of him, Raines, Ventura and Thomas. All were posting great OBAs during that period. Opponents had to pitch to Bell, because there was no place to put him. So Ryan's right, the more the batters get on in front of him, the better his chance to do some damage. At some point, you need to try to get an out.

The Good Phight looks at the difference between winning baseball and fun baseball.

Chronicle of the Lads presents a very good post on how Mike Scioscia uses the bunt effectively.

Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog notes that the Tigers lineup is so balanced, the difference between the best and worst lineups in negligible.