Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
April 30, 2002
Hot Rod:
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Alex Rodriguez hit his 9th HR of the season tonight, and more importantly, his 250th of his career. Only Foxx got to 250 at a younger age. He'll be 27 in July, and he's already 1/3 of the way to Aaron's record. It's conceivable that he'll have 450 HR by his 30th birthday. Wouldn't it be cool if a shortstop set the all-time HR record?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Baseball
Watch Out Monty:
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Bob Montgomery wrote me about Ichiro's improved selectivity:


I wanted to comment on something you wrote today, specifically: "It seems
plate discipline can be taught. Imagine how good Ichiro will be if he learns
to take pitches in the dirt and over his head."

I think maybe he already has.

Some observations:
Ichiro's walks last year: 30
He is currently on pace to draw 65 this year.
Ichiro's OBP-BA, 2001: .031
This year, so far: .074
He has maintained his .380+ OBP even as his batting average is 40 points
below last year's average.
Ichiro's pitches/PA, 2001: 3.39
in 2002, thus far: 3.73

For a comparison (admittedly a limited one) I looked at pitch/PA for Jason
Giambi.
His lowest number was 3.89 pitches/PA, in 1997, and his highest was 4.19,
last year. That's a difference of .3 pitches/PA, over a span of 5 years.
So far this year, Ichiro has increased his pitches/PA by .34 - which is
quite a difference, I think.

Anyway, the season is young and Ichiro's apparent change might just be
random variation over the first 100 AB of the season - but, as I wrote a
week or so ago
(http://vdub_bobby.blogspot.com/2002_04_01_vdub_bobby_archive.html#75292931)
, through the first five games of the season, Ichiro was hitting .250 with
no walks and no extra-base hits (a .250/.250/.250 line). In the 20 games
since then (he has played in 18 of those), he is hitting .329 with 10 walks
and and 10 extra-base hits (producing a post-first-5 line of
.329/.427/.529). After not drawing a walk in the first five games of the
season, he has not had a similar streak of more than 1 game until the last
four games. :(

I don't know if his new plate discipline will last for the whole season, but
I certainly hope so, being a Ms fan.


Thanks, Bob!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 PM | Baseball
Hillenbrand's Defense:
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I was just watching the Orioles-Red Sox, and Melvin Mora just laid down a bunt for a base hit. Hillenbrand was playing back of the bag, and didn't try to make a play. NESN then showed a wide angle replay, and it struck me that Hillenbrand should have made a better effort. He never charged the ball. He jogged in a few feet, then gave up. But it's a ball Graig Nettles would have made a play on. He would have charged in, scooped the ball with his bare hand, and made a throw to first. The ball was bunted hard. If Hillenbrand had started charging the second he saw Mora square, he would have had a chance. The Red Sox announcers let him off too easily.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 PM | Baseball
Soriano and Hillenbrand:
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On April 1st, I commented that Soriano was not the Yankees best choice for a leadoff man. However, Soriano has put up a great leadoff OBA of .385. He's walked more, drawing four. That's still not a lot, but he didn't get his fourth walk until June last year. I don't think I was wrong, totally wrong, however. Soriano is great at getting hits, and getting extra bases with those hits. That's a sign of an RBI man, not a leadoff man. I don't think Soriano's BA will stay at these lofty levels, but his power seems to be real. His stats really scream number five hitter at me.

Earlier, I also commented on Shea Hillenbrand being more patient at the plate. This has payed off in 7 walks for Shea, a level he didn't achieve until July last year. Rob Neyer notes in this column that the Expos are walking more. I noted earlier that the Royals are walking more. It seems plate discipline can be taught. Imagine how good Ichiro will be if he learns to take pitches in the dirt and over his head.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:44 PM | Baseball
Muser Fired:
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Rob Neyer is much closer to this situation, so read his column for a Royals fan's take on the firing. According to ESPN.com, this is the first time 4 managers were fired in April. Of course, it's not really a fair comparison. Baseball seasons, for most of baseball history, didn't start until late April. And without lights, a lot of games got canceled due to inclement weather. So before 1990 or so, it would be hard to play enough games in April to get fired. I'm going to have to look through my Big Mac and see how many managers were let go after less than 30 games in a season. That's probably a better point of comparison.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:23 PM | Baseball
April 29, 2002
Winning Percentage:
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The distribution of winning percentages looks anything but normal right now. Here's the histogram. The label represents the center point of the values.


.300 XXXXXX
.400 XXXX
.500 XXXXXXX
.600 XXXXXXXXXXX
.700 XX

In other words, there are thirteen teams playing better than .550 ball, and 10 teams playing less than .450 ball. If winning percentages were normally distributed (as they should be), and assumig a standard deviation of .05, there should be 20 teams playing between .450 and .550, and 28 teams between .400 and .600!

I'm sure Bud Selig would point to these numbers as showing the need for better revenue sharing, and to a point he's right. But a number of teams have simply done a poor job of building winning teams. Just look at the difference between Baltimore and Oakland. Detroit, Milwaukee, KC and Baltimore have done poor jobs of developing winning teams, and it turns out that even new stadiums won't bring out fans to watch losing teams. Without better revenue sharing, the poor teams probably won't win a division, but as Pittsburgh, Montreal and Cincinnati are showing, you don't have to be rich to at least be good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:20 PM | Baseball
Red Resurgence:
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Sometimes stats don't tell you anything. Sometimes they point right to the answer. The Cincinnati Reds are in first place in the NL Central today, and in fact have the third best record in the NL. And yet, when I look at the hitting and pitching, they look like a .500 team. The pitching has been good; the team ranks 5th in the NL with a 3.53 ERA. The hitting hasn't been great; they are 10th in runs with 101 (they've allowed 99). In general, when I see something like this, I immediately think luck. In the case of the Reds, however, we can isolate the luck exactly.

Reds starters are 8-8. The relievers are 7-1, with 3 blown saves. The relievers do have a much better ERA than the starters, (3.86 for staters, 3.07 for the relievers). On top of this, the Reds are good in one clutch hitting category. Look at the close and late category below:


BATTING SPLITS

AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS TBB SO OBP SLG
Total .252 798 101 201 34 5 18 98 17 10 83 179 .329 .375

None on .252 444 --- 112 18 3 12 12 0 0 41 99 .325 .387
Runners on .251 354 --- 89 16 2 6 86 17 10 42 80 .334 .359

None on/out .266 203 --- 54 10 1 5 5 0 0 14 45 .320 .399
Scoring Posn .215 223 --- 48 8 1 1 71 8 2 28 53 .304 .274
ScPos/2 Out .208 106 --- 22 4 0 1 31 4 2 21 25 .339 .274

Close & Late .341 123 --- 42 3 1 3 24 4 4 14 25 .423 .455
Bases Loaded .263 19 --- 5 1 0 0 15 0 0 1 3 .273 .316

So the Reds have been able to win by having the starters keep them in games, having a tough bullpen, and great late clutch hitting. They are 10-4 in games decided by one or two runs.

Of course, the Reds claim that it's all chemistry. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM | Baseball
April 28, 2002
Family Emergency:
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Sorry I haven't written for a few days. My mother is very sick and I needed to spend time with my family. I should be back to commenting tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:05 PM | Baseball
April 25, 2002
Popping the Cork:
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ESPN reports that Omar vizquel says in his biography that all of Albert Belle's bats were corked. Somehow, this is a big deal. Albert isn't going to be swinging a corked bat anytime soon, and did anyone really think his bats weren't corked? Of course, the sad thing is that Albert was so strong, he probably didn't need any cork.

I wonder, however, if this means we are going to see more tell-all books from ballplayers. It strikes me that a lot of ballplayers don't lead exemplary lives. I wonder if Omar would like it if Albert wrote a book where he talked about bad things that Omar might have done? Albert is an easy target; I doubt there are many people in baseball who like him. I can't wait to hear Belle's reaction, and I wonder if people are going to trust Omar as much in the future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:54 PM | Baseball
Tino Walks:
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I know a lot of people who were sorry to see Tino Martinez leave the Yankees. This was, of course, an emotional reaction, not a logical one. Tino peaked for the Yankees in 1997. He set career highs in AB, Runs, Hits, HR, RBI and Walks in 1997. He then started a steady decline, with a rebound last year. I like Tino, but the Yankees had a chance to replace a declining first baseman with one at the top of his offensive game. I would have done the same thing. At this point, I don't think anyone can argue with the move.

Tino's offensive line is very interesting. As of this morning, he's hitting .197, but with a .316 OBA. He's drawn 12 walks which would put him on pace to match his best years reaching by the base on balls. But his selectivity hasn't been getting him better pitches to hit. He's walked 8 times with men in scoring position, 5 times in that situation with 2 outs, suggesting that teams are pitching around him, rather than Tino becoming more selective. He had a good night last night, so maybe his hitting will start turning around. But if Tino's batting has really declined, I would expect more teams to start pitching to him, and his walks to go down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Baseball
April 24, 2002
More on Defense and Triples:
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David de la Fuente has a different take on my triples comment concerning outfield throwing arms:


I enjoyed your Strat-O-Matic post, a game I played for several years in
HS and college. But I, along with most major league scouts (of which I
am not one, just a copy editor for a major metro daily), would disagree
with your assessment that throwing arms are stronger now than ever
before. I think there's only one guy out there, Vlad, who has a cannon;
you go back to past eras and there were always two or three guys like
that around at one time, maybe more. (Ellis Valentine, Dwight Evans,
Dave Parker in the era you mentioned, 1979.) I've heard scouts say that
there's nothing but lollipop arms out there because guys just don't
practice long heaves anymore, in the same way that nobody shoots free
throws either -- just not too interesting. Anyway, as far as a
defensive aspect to the triples trend you mentioned, I'd have to guess
that better scouting and outfield positioning against hitters is a much
bigger factor.

Good points. Thanks, David!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM | Baseball
April 23, 2002
Picking up the Pitching:
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Pirate hitters have responded. They have 6 hits and 6 runs in the second inning to erase a 3 run Dodger lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 PM | Baseball
Wild Thing:
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Jimmy Anderson was a bit wild in the first, walking 2 and hitting 2 batters. He's down 3-0. The Expos just made an error to let two runs in. Maybe these teams can't take the pressure of all the good publicity they've been getting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 PM | Baseball
Crying Wolf:
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You have to wonder if Randy Wolf's elbow is okay. He's striking out people, but his ERA is high. In the first inning tonight, he's given up 2 hits and 3 walks, including a grand slam to Deivi Cruz.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:30 PM | Baseball
Nice Review:
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Eric Olsen of Tres Producers writes this nice review of my blog. Thanks, Eric!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Baseball
Team Chemistry:
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Sometimes Rob Neyer makes me feel redundant. Here's a column about effect of Lofton's leaving on the Cleveland clubhouse. Basically, the Indians say they have better chemistry without Kenny's music blarring. Rob points out, correctly, that the Indians did pretty well with Lofton being a cancer in the clubhouse.

I don't know how many times I've sat in on meetings where some former player talks about the importance of chemistry. Every time I'd point to the A's of the early '70's and the Yankees later in that decade. Both teams had Reggie Jackson. Some of you may have heard that Jackson is not easy to get along with. That is a huge understatement. I've seen Reggie in action, and it's much worse than you've heard. But he was a great ballplayer, and his teams won. If I'm putting together a team, I want a lot of Reggies and Barry Bonds and Rickey Hendersons, who want to win, and don't care if they hurt your feelings in reaching that goal. I don't want them as friends, but I want them on my team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 AM | Baseball
Humility:
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In this game recap of last night's KC win, Paul Byrd shows he's a team player.


"I'd like to take credit and say I've thrown some gems, but our offense has scored early and made it easier for me," said Byrd, who combined a good, hard slider with an assortment of screwballs. "I had good location."

In 28.1 IP, Byrd has not walked a man. His OBA allowed is actually lower than his batting average allowed! (.236 OBA, .238 BA) He's allowed 3 HR, but 2 of them have been solo shots. A ray of hope in KC.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 AM | Baseball
April 21, 2002
1-7, Triple:
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When I was in college, I caught the Strat-O-Matic Baseball bug. It's a simulation game, and a lot of fun to play. One year we played with the 1979 cards. I had Bob Watson have a tremendous season for me that year. You would roll three dice, two red and one white. The white die would choose one of 6 columns; the combination of the red die would choose a result in the column. Sometimes, the results would be broken up into two events, and you would pick a card between 1 and 20 to decide. For example, Bob Watson had a 1-6 (column 1, entry 6) with a HR 1-18, double 19-20. When you'd roll this, you'd say, HR 1-18, double the rest. Since triples are rare events, you almost never saw a triple on a straight roll, it was almost always split, and it was almost always on an unlikely roll, like 2 or 3 or 11 or 12. In 1979, my friend Jim Storer had George Brett. George had a 1-7 triple. No split. A straight triple on a probablisticly high roll. When Jim would roll the 1-7 on Brett's card, he'd say, "1-7, triple," and his opponent would ask, "Triple what?" and Jim would reply, "Just a triple. It's like a triple 1-20, but you don't pick a split card!" It was scary facing Brett that year.

Well, Furcal may end up with one this year. He had three triples in one game today, tying an MLB record. As a point of comparison, Willie Mays Aikens had 2 triples for his entire career! Triples have shown a steady decline throughout the 20th century. Every decade, triples were less abundant than the previous 10 year span. My guess is that the more prominent the HR became, the more risky it was to try to take the extra base, stretching a double into a triple. Also, defense has gotten better every decade, and as throwing arms got stronger, the chance of being thrown out at third went up. Triples are one of my favorite hits, so I hope we see a few more from Furcal this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | Baseball
Walk this Way:
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Yankees drew 12 walks today. An even dozen. Can you imagine being a fan watching this game? Even if I were rooting for the Yankees, I'd be screaming at the pitchers to throw the ball over the plate. I hope Buck Martinez sits his staff down and tells them they can't win unless they throw strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM | Baseball
April 20, 2002
The Rookie:
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Just saw this movie tonight. It's the first G-movie I've seen in years that wasn't a children's movie. Good plot, good acting, nothing gratutitous. Makes one wonder why they can't make movies like this all the time. See it if you haven't.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Baseball
Gammons on Contraction:
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Peter Gammons has an excellent article on the Twins, Expos and contraction. He brings up important integrity issues; if the Expos are still in the race come summer, will MLB let them expand the payroll and take on a couple of veterans who could help them win? A must read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | Baseball
Tough Luck for Ted:
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With 2 out in the 7th, Lilly gave up a solo HR, tieing the game 1-1. Torre pulled him. He can't get the win, but he and the Yankees have to be real happy with that outing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:35 PM | Baseball
Expos Win!
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The Expos beat the Mets 7-5 today. The Buy the Expos group was supposed to be at the game today, and the attendance was over 11,000, so it looks like they swelled the crowd. Expos are now tied with the Mets for first place in the East. A win tomorrow would put them in first alone. If the Twins beat the Indians tonight, they will be in first place also. I hope Bud sees the irony here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Baseball
Ted Lilly:
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I'm watching Ted Lilly pitch for the Yankees today, and I really like what I'm seeing. Last year he would have moments of brillance, but he would always tire around the 4th or 5th, and walks and HR would kill him. Alberto Castillo is catching, and Jim Kaat has lots of praise for Castillo's pitch calling. Castillo and Lilly are keeping things unpredictable. Lilly now has 8 K through 6 innings (he's walked 1 and hit 2), but has only allowed 2 hits. He's thrown 87 pitchers about 15 per inning. That's very efficient.

I like watching Lilly. He's not a big guy, but I love his curve ball. Reminds me of a shorter Bruce Hurst. He's doing a great job filling in for Pettitte today. I should also mention that Roy Halladay is pitching nearly as brilliantly. The difference is a HR pitch to Bernie Williams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Baseball
April 19, 2002
Patterson:
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Remeber what a bust Corey Patterson was in spring training? On the Baseball Direct Scoreboard site, you can get STATS, Inc. listings for players, including News and Notes. This was written about Patterson in March:


3/15/02 3:17 PM CT
Manager Don Baylor has been backing off his early-spring statement that
Patterson will start in center field for the Cubs. Patterson has been
slumping, forcing his manager to reconsider his initial decision.
STATS Says:
Patterson probably could use a full season at Triple-A Iowa, and making
such a scenario more feasible is the success of Roosevelt Brown in the
Cubs' camp. Brown could be the starting center fielder on Opening Day.
(TH)

A little over a month later, Patterson is hitting well and Brown looks like he's heading back to the minors. Brown did homer today, but Patterson has a .429 OBA and Brown a .216 (through 6 innings today). Maybe spring training isn't all that meaningful.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM | Baseball
Good Griffey News:
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Here's a positive report that Griffey will be back by the end of the month. Good news for him and for the Reds. Looks like he'll come back against the Giants, so if Bonds' hamstring holds up, that will be a fun matchup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 PM | Baseball
Steve Cox Injured:
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Wouldn't that be a better title than the one the St. Petersburg Times uses?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | Baseball
Does the Manager Matter?
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Ross Newhan reports on the firing of Davey Lopes, a Dodger favorite:


There were no creative options for Lopes, once a catalytic leadoff man with the Dodgers, and no future for either batting coach Rod Carew, replaced by Gary Matthews, or pitching coach Bob Apodaca, replaced by Dave Stewart.

Former Dodger Eric Young was signed as a free agent in the hope he could ignite the top of the lineup, but he has documented that you can't steal first base while batting .140 with a .262 on-base percentage.

The rest of Matthews' hitters are doing what they do best, ranking third in the league in strikeouts and 14th in on-base percentage and batting average. There also have been no miracles under the respected Stewart. Only Colorado has a higher earned-run average than a comparatively no-name staff that was 12th in the league in pitching last year when no starter won more than 11 games.

Lopes could not overcome the burden. He was Dead Man Walking and knew it even before the Pittsburgh series when he reminded reporters that he had told them when hired before the 2000 season that there were no quick fixes, that it was a five- or seven-year program.

"I don't care who you put in this seat," he said. "You can put Joe Torre in this seat, you can put Dusty Baker. It doesn't matter. You're going to get the same results. I have no doubt about it."


I don't agree with Lopes. Baker and Torre would have worked on maximizing the strength of the team, and minimizing the weaknesses. Instead of trying to build a team in a certain image, they would have worked with what they had to put the best team and lineup on the field. If you have a lot of HR hitters, don't try to build a speed team. Instead, try to find people who can get on in front of the home run hitters. Baker has had great teams and mediocre teams, and always seems to do well. Torre has always dealt with his personnel and the media well, and when given a good team, he's been able to take them to the playoffs. Lopes has to learn to work with what he has before he'll become a good manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Baseball
On-base + Slugging:
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This is a simple stat that gives you a quick one-number comparison of players. Just add on-base and slugging together. Those that do both well rate high, those that do both poorly rate low. It's not perfect, but it does correlate well with measures like runs created.

Everyday I get an E-Mail from STATS, Inc., which among other things lists the trailers in OPS and Rey Ordonez's rank. Here's the list through game of Thursday:


Top 10 Trailers in OBP+SLG, and their king: Rey Ordonez
1. .252 Chris Singleton
2. .376 Jose Macias
3. .408 Jason Tyner
4. .409 Greg Vaughn
5. .420 Tim Salmon
6. .426 Bobby Smith
7. .446 Jason Kendall
8. .448 Tony Clark
9. .462 Eric Young
10. .467 Adam Kennedy
15. .519 Rey Ordonez

What strikes me about this list is the inclusion of 4 big names: Greg Vaughn, Salmon, Kendall and Clark. Tim Salmon spent most of his career at the other end of the spectrum. Jason Kendall was always known for his ability to get on base; the Pirates sometimes use him as a leadoff hitter. Greg Vaughn is supposed to be the big power hitter for Tampa Bay, and Tony Clark is proving Randy Smith right. It's still early, but at this point, I don't think Salmon's career continuing is very promising, and we may be seeing the last of Clark and Vaughn as well. I don't know about Kendall. Maybe that leg injury took a lot out of him. It's too bad, he's fun to watch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM | Baseball
April 18, 2002
Everyday Eddie:
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Guardado has settled very nicely into the closer role for Minnesota. He's 7 for 7 with a perfect 9th today (struck out the side). That gives him 13 K in 8 innings, with only 3 hits and 4 BB (I love to see more K than hits + BB). Torii Hunter now has 5 HR, giving the Twins some power in the middle of the lineup they lacked last year.

I was praising the Royals for walking more a few days ago. Today, 0 BB, 7 K.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | Baseball
Lopes Fired:
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Davey Lopes was fired today after the Brewers reportedly got off to their worst start ever. I wonder how many Brewer managers were saved by April? A few years ago, I looked at the Brewers won-lost record through May 15. For the life of the franchise, they were above .500 through May 15th, but well under .500 after that. I wonder how often the good start made management think they had something good going and that the losing was due more to luck or injury?

That's two managers fired in April. I wonder if that's some kind of record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 PM | Baseball
April 17, 2002
B&B:
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Looks like this is going to mean Bonds and Berkman. Both went deep tonight for their MLB leading 8th HR. I'll bet on Barry, but Berkman is hitting these on the road, and Houston is a pretty good HR park.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | Baseball
The Cubs scored 6 runs
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The Cubs scored 6 runs in the top of the first inning and lost. And it wasn't close. The Expos beat them 15 to 8. The top 5 of the Expos order were 9 for 24 with 8 runs and 10 RBI. And they did it all with just 1 HR. Bruce Chen was the pitching hero. When Ohka couldn't get an out in the first, Chen came in and held Chicago to 1 run over 4 innings, and let the Expos get back into it. Remember to scroll down on the side to the Buy the Expos link!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Baseball
Backward Battery:
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The San Diego Padres can't be happy about the following batting stats:


AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS TBB SO OBP SLG
Batting #8 .111 45 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 .149 .133
Batting #9 .114 44 3 5 2 0 1 4 0 0 2 9 .152 .227

As p .148 27 1 4 2 0 0 3 0 0 1 8 .179 .222
As c .070 43 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 12 .167 .070

Padre catchers have 1/2 the batting average adn 1/3 the slugging percentage. Tom Lampkin has 1 hit in 25 AB. Gonzalez was 1 for 6 before he went down for 6-8 weeks with a broken wrist.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:33 PM | Baseball
Pirate Pitchers:
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The Pittsburgh Pirates with a 3-2 win this afternoon are in first place in the NL Central by a game. Looking at their pitching stats on ESPN.com, I notice that all but 3 of their pitchers have ERA's under 3.00. With a 2.90 ERA, they are more than 2 runs below 2001's ERA of 5.05. Two runs a game, if they could maintain that over a season would be over 300 runs for the season. As a rule of thumb, 10 runs in your favor equals about 1 win, so we're looking at a potential 30 game turnaround based on the pitching. That would give them 92 wins, and certainly keep them in contention in the Central.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:21 PM | Baseball
April 16, 2002
Tigers Win:
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Jose Lima pitched 6 shutout innings, and the Tigers offense exploded for 9 runs to get in the win column. The Orioles record for losses at the start of the season is safe for another year. Also of note, Ben Grieve hit his 5th HR. Maybe he's coming out of his 2 year slide.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | Baseball
Giambi batting 4th:
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I'm watching the bottom of the 9th of the Yankee game, and the top of the order came up with the Yankees down 1 run. Giambi is batting 4th. Now, I believe the general consensus is that you bat your best hitter 3rd. Why? So he gets more AB. Jeter just made the 3rd out, and Giambi never got a chance to win it with one swing. Just a little thing, but over a season, why take plate appearances away from Giambi?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | Baseball
Barry Berkman?
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Lance Berkman had 3 HR tonight, giving him 7 on the year, tying him with Barry Bonds for the NL lead. Nine of his 15 hits this year have been for extra bases.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | Baseball
The top five players in
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The top five players in the Expos lineup tonight all have OBA's over .390. They've scored 5 runs and driven in 7 tonight. Often I see managers break up their OBA's guys in the lineup. By bunching them together, you multiply the effect, since there isn't an out machine to stop the rally. Looks like an Earl Weaver influence on Frank Robinson.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | Baseball
Tim Salmon has not come
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Tim Salmon has not come out of his slump from last season. Starting today, he was hitting .146, 5th worst in the AL. Two years ago, he slugged over .500, now he can't get his batting average over the Mendoza line. From 1992 to 2000, he was an extremely consistent and effective hitter, getting on base and slugging. Sad to see his career go down so quickly. He's 33, so it's not that unusual, but with so many players doing well into their late 30's these days, you don't expect such a large and quick decline.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | Baseball
Super Hero?
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The Orioles, with a 5-4 lead in the 9th over the Yankees are bringing in their closer, Jorge Julio. Now, those of you who are fans of DC comics know that super heros always have two first names.


Clark Kent - Superman
Bruce Wayne - Batman (technically, not a superhero, he didn't have superpowers)
Barry Allen - The Flash
Hal Jordan - Green Latern

Anyone have any suggestions as to what Julio's secret identity is?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | Baseball
Hillenbrand
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Shea Hillenbrand has a double and a HR tonight, his 5th. He now has a 12 game hitting streak to start the season. Last year he started with a nine-game hitting streak, and batted .343 in April, but with only 2 HR. He fell off to .228 in May and .206 in June. Dwight Evans has been working with him. Evans was a very selective hitter, and Shea claims to be listening to him along those lines. Last year in April he had 1 walk, this year so far 3. But where it seems to be paying off the most is that Shea is looking for his pitch, rather than just swinging at the first thing that comes along. So far, it's working great.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 PM | Baseball
April 15, 2002
Buy the Expos!
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Click here to go to a site where you can agree to buy a part of the Expos. A group of students from Penn got the idea to solicit pledges to buy the Expos from MLB. Any amount is accepted, and unless they get enough to buy the team, you won't have to actually donate anything. So stick it to Bud and help buy the Expos. They are also trying to get as many people to go to the Expos game in Montreal on Saturday, so if you can make it, go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | Baseball
April 14, 2002
I can't believe this. I'm
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I can't believe this. I'm watching the Mariners at Texas. In consecutive half innings, I saw Ichiro strikeout swing, and look bad doing it, then make a terrible throw to the plate as Catalanotto was scoring. You don't see either of hose two often.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:48 PM | Baseball
KC Walks:
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One of the big problems with the Royals last year was that they were out walked and out homered, as shown in Roy Neyer's Beane Count. For those of you unfamiliar with it, the Beane count is named after Billy Beane, whose philosophy is to have batters who walk and hit HR, and pitchers who allow neither. The Beane Count is the total of the league rank of those four categories. The Royals had the worst Beane Count in the AL last year, ranking 11 in HR Hit, 14 in walks drawn, 13 in HR allowed and 13 in walks allowed.

This year, they are still being out homered, 14th in hitting them and 13th in allowing them (outhomered 19-3). But the pitchers and batters have improved. The Royals are now 8th in walks drawn, and 2nd in fewest allowed! That's a big improvement for the pitching staff. It hasn't shown up in the ERA yet, but it's the right direction, and Royal fans should appreciate that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Baseball
When will Detroit Win? Part IV:
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I don't think it will be today. David Ortiz hits a triple with the bases loaded. Twins now up 10-7. Matt Anderson comes up 6 outs short of a save, as he fails to retire a batter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | Baseball
When will Detroit Win? Part III:
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Macias' defense at 2nd is just killing the Tigers in this inning. He just failed to cover 1st on a bunt, putting the go-ahead run at 2nd with 0 out. Tigers lost both of their 2nd basemen in the same game; Easley is expected back next week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:47 PM | Baseball
When will Detroit Win? Part II:
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Bobby Kielty hits a pinch hit HR off Matt Anderson to tie the game. No save for Anderson. And Jacque Jones follows up with a single. Not looking good for the Tigers right now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM | Baseball
When will Detroit Win?
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I just turned on the Tigers game to see if they would get their first win. They are ahead 7-5 with the Twins leading in the bottom of the 8th. The leadoff man for the Twins gets on when the emergency starter at 2b, Macias throws the ball into the dugout (I believe it was scored a hit and an error). Pujols is now bringing in his closer to try to get 6 outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:41 PM | Baseball
Burnett shut out the Braves
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Burnett shut out the Braves today. He now has 25 strikeouts in 21.2 IP. This is out of line with previous years of his career, where he averaged 6.6 K per 9. If this strikeout increase is real, look for Burnett to have a good year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:33 PM | Baseball
The Brothers Hernandez:
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Livan and Orlando Hernandez both seem to have refound their form. Livan won his third game yesterday, although he has to be a little disappointed he only struck out 2 Brewers. El Duque's neck injury seemed to be minor, as he pitched well in a losing cause against the Red Sox on Friday. If you saw any of the Giants game yesterday, don't you love the way Orlando's uniform hangs on him? Looks like something out of a distant era.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | Baseball
April 13, 2002
Win Shares:
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I've spent most of the day reading win shares. It's a fascinating book. I think I'm going to have to read it a couple of more times to get everything I can out of it. The fielding calculations are complicated but fascinating. There are little things about the system that still bother me, but I don't want to criticize anything until I'm sure I understand what James is doing exactly.

One thing that bothered me on the surface, and something that James goes to great length to convince the reader is true, is that the quality of the team you play for does not affect win shares. For those of you unfamiliar with this new system, James takes the actual number of wins by a team, multiplies by 3, and divides those up among the players based on batting, pitching and fielding. So a team with 60 wins gets to divide 180 win shares; a team with 100 wins gets to divide 300 win shares. James, through example, makes a compelling case that players with similar stats, playing on teams of opposite extremes, get the same number of win shares.

I was still skeptical. I had a hunch that you could put together a really good team, and they'd be shown to win an unusually high number of games. Think of it this way; if you could take a year and have the best players at each position, how many games would the team win?

On page 526 of the Win Shares book, the players who gathered the most win shares in the 80's are listed. I selected the middle year of the decade, 1985, and went down the list filling in a team with the first person I encountered at a position. The team I came up with is:


Gary Cater - C
Eddie Murray - 1B
Lou Whitaker - 2B
Mike Schmidt - 3B
Cal Ripken, Jr. - SS
Rickey Henderson - LF
Robin Yount - CF
Dale Murphy - RF

Dave Steib - SP
Jack Morris - SP
Bert Blyleven - SP
Fernando Valenzuela - SP
Charlie Hough - SP
Dan Quisenberry - Closer


These players total 352 win shares. That's 117 wins. Sure, the other 11 on the team would contribute, but not much, since these 14 would play most of the time. If you look at the 1998 NY Yankees and take out the top 14, the rest of the team contributes 25 wins, but Torre tended to use the whole roster that year. I don't think with the above team that would happen. But say it did, that tells us this team would win between 117 and 142 games. Now look at that team. Does that sound reasonable? This was 1985. Rickey, Cal, Dale and Robin were all in their primes. Carter was still great, as was Murray. Schmidt was getting old, but an old Schmidt was still very good. The offense alone could probably win 100 games with the current Tiger's pitching staff. This is a much better team than the 1998 Yankees or the 2001 Mariners. I think 117 wins is very conservative.

However, this result was also a pleasant surprise, because I thought if you put this team together, they would total more than 162 wins! That would say to me something was amiss with the system. If the actual number of wins a team has doesn't matter to win shares, then even the best team shouldn't be able to win over 162 games. Now, I haven't tried here to put together the best possible team of 1985, but this is very close, and I don't think those changes are going to add 20 wins.

So I'm impressed. This is going to be a great tool for evaluating teams. And as more people do better research, the system will only get better. Get the book, and take your time reading it. Circle things in pencil and do the math. It will help you understand the game better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:10 PM | Baseball
April 12, 2002
Nice to see Kenny Lofton
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Nice to see Kenny Lofton doing well again. With a hit in his first plate appearance today, his OBA is now .410. Indians don't miss him, as their leadoff hitters have gotten on base at a .438 clip. Knoblauch may also be coming around. He has 5 hits in his last 4 games. Two great leadoff men, and I'm rooting for them to bounce back from last year's poor performances.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | Baseball
April 11, 2002
Indian's Pitching:
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The Indians ERA is about 1.50 runs lower than their overall ERA in 2001. Those of you who might have chatted with me on BBTN online last year may remember my suggestion that Cleveland should trade some offense for some pitching. Shapiro has done what Hart was not able to do consistently, balance the staff and the hitters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | Baseball
Two-Fifths:
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AP has a good story on the DBacks pitching. Schilling and Johnson, as you probably know, have the only wins for the DBacks. Some stats from the article:


This season, Johnson is 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in 16 innings. Schilling is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 16 innings. They have combined to allow only 18 hits and one run in 32 innings with six walks and 46 strikeouts.

Schilling leads the NL with 26 strikeouts, and Johnson is tied for second with 20.

The other starters — Rick Helling, Brian Anderson and Todd Stottlemyre — are a combined 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts.


The also point out that the DBacks are only scoring a little over 3 runs a game. If they are going to win with the other pitchers, they are going to need to improve that offense. I thought the offense was better last year than I expected it to be. Maybe age is finally catching up with them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | Baseball
Behind the Times:
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There was an article on ESPN.com yesterday about Barry Bonds possibly being the greatest ballplayer ever. What got me about the article, is that no matter what you think of Bonds all-time, there seems to be a consensus that he was the greatest player of the decade of the 90's. What gets me about this is that ESPN did a big show about who was he best ballplayer of the nineties two years ago. They picked from four players; Bonds, McGwire, Maddux and someone else, I don't remember. I did research for that show, and I was convinced after that research that the best player was Bonds or Maddux, and they were pretty even. Of course, the award went to McGwire, since he broke the HR record. Bonds didn't even make the all century team! I guess Bonds bad PR has cost him in those types of awards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | Baseball
Ranger Ace?
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Is Doug Davis for real, or does he just have Oakland's number? He's faced the A's twice this year, and is 2-0, throwing a shutout today.. In 16 innings, he's allowed 2 runs. Whatever he's got, the Rangers have to hope the rest of the staff catches it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Baseball
Expos in First Place!
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Don't they know they're not supposed to be doing this? Don't they know if they play exciting baseball and win that fans might start coming out to see them? Don't they know this will ruin their owner's plans to contract them? Way to go, Expos! If you have a friend in Montreal, call them or e-mail them or even write them and urge them to go see the Expos.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 AM | Baseball
April 10, 2002
400 Club:
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Coming into tonight's game, the Expos have five regulars with on-base averages over .400. I don't remember the Expos being like this under Alou. Alou was a fine leader, but I don't think he stressed things like getting on base. He certainly didn't get on much as a hitter, so that doesn't surprise me. Robinson, on the other hand, always had a great OBA; he knew the value of the walk. This seems to have rubbed off quickly on the Expos. Too bad the Expos don't have real ownership. If they did, they might try to get another quality pitcher so they could challenge for the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 PM | Baseball
Jones for Jacque:
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Jacque Jones through his first 8 games has 15 hits and 6 BB, including 3 HR. He's got a great name, he's fun to watch, and this is exactly the kind of sparkplug the Twins need. I know he's going to slow down, but I bet he's going to make baseball fun in Minnesota this year, despite all the problems there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 PM | Baseball
Power Hitting:
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Through 2, the Yankees have 5 hits, 4 doubles and a HR, Giambi's first. Yankees offensive numbers have been pretty scary so far. Coming into tonight, they had a .387 OBA and a .432 slugging percentage. They haven't played a good team yet, but the poor teams don't seem to have a chance against them. Maybe Torre will be nice and start the 2nd string when they play Detroit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 PM | Baseball
Rocky Pen:,
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Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies' bullpen is putting up good numbers. They pitched 2 2/3 scoreless today to preserve the win, and have a 3.04 ERA in 26 2/3 innings. They threw strikes today, three pitchers combining for 9 balls and 28 strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM | Baseball
Wood Redux:
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For the second straight game, Kerry Wood struck out 10 and walked 4. Last game, however, he used so many pitches to accomplish this that Baylor had to take him out after 5. Today he was much more efficient, using 97 pitches over 7 innings and allowing only 1 run. Unfortunately for the the Cubs, the bullpen blew it. But if Wood can give them 7 innings like that often, the Cubs should win a lot of his games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM | Baseball
Boring Baseball:
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Rob Neyer's column discusses why the Oakland A's are both fascinating and boring. Although not intentionally, he sums up a great truth of baseball; what helps you win is boring. Waiting for pitches, offenses centered around HR, endless pitching changes are probably a good way to build a winner, but it's not exciting. I think this is why the average fan doesn't care about Sabremetrics; they go to a game to be entertained.

I noticed last year that I had to force myself to like Ichiro. He doesn't walk enough, he swings at pitches out of the strike zone, no power, runs too much. That's the Sabrematrician in me talking. But Suzuki is exciting. I should have been embracing that excitement, while keeping his flaws in perspective. I did that with Bo Jackson, before he got hurt. I should have known to do that with Ichiro.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM | Baseball
Win Shares:
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I spent the evening reading Win Shares. So far the essays are very good, typical Bill. But the explanation of the system, while complete, is tough reading. I get the feeling Bill rushed the writing of that part of the book. It's a complicated system, and it's a heuristic system, which I believe will lead to a lot of criticism. The work on first basemen fielding, much of which was explained in the Historical Abstract, is worth the price of admission, however. I'm going to have to read through the system two or three times to really understand it, and when I do, I'll try to write an objective review. But so far, the concept is very exciting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 AM | Baseball
April 09, 2002
Bob Dutton has an article
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Bob Dutton has an article on how Knoblauch is influencing the Royals to be more patient at the plate.


Ritchie sailed into the sixth, with the score tied 1-1, having retired 12 in a row. But his pitch count was climbing, and he soon hit a wall. The Royals scored twice, and Ritchie never made it out of the inning, wearied by 104 pitches.

"Our game plan worked," third baseman Joe Randa said. "We took a lot of pitches and waited Ritchie out."

The Royals then jumped all over Chicago's suspect bullpen, scoring six times in the seventh and turning a close game into a rout.

"The first five games, as a team, we've been much more patient than in the past," first baseman Mike Sweeney said. "Every starting pitcher by the fifth or sixth inning has 80 or 90 pitches. That's something in the past we've not done."


Although they are not hitting yet, they are walking more. Last year, the Royals OBA was 52 points above their BA. This year, it's 81 points higher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:50 PM | Baseball
5-1 Pirates:
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Chuck Finder writes a positive story about the Pirates. Here's how Jason Kendall feels about it:


After eight summers of numbing woefulness, it's nice to finally see encouraging signs, isn't it?

"This is the first time that I've been here in six years when everybody's got everybody's back," said catcher Jason Kendall. "Ah, it's two different worlds. A real positive atmosphere. Winning's a cure-all."

The old heads help. Kendall is the first to credit the GM's wintertime orchestrations. "What Dave did in the off-season, he went out and got six-year free agents, guys who've been there, done that. Guys who can help the young kids come along. To me, that's a big key to the pitching staff. It's fun to catch now."


It's been all pitching so far, but at least Littlefield seems to have a plan, he's sticking to it, and it's working.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:07 PM | Baseball
Why Now?
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Jayson Stark has an excellent column on the Detroit firings. He approaches the piece by asking the question, "Does anyone deserve to be fired one week into the season?"

From what I've been reading, people think Randy Smith did a good job with the farm system but a lousy job with the big league club. I think that's being kind. It seems to me that he turned Detroit into a farm system for other teams. Smith made a number of trades with Houston, where his father is an executive. Houston's had a pretty good run during that time, so maybe Randy was being taken by his dad, or maybe Randy and his dad cared more about the Astros doing well than the Tigers doing well. I don't know. But my guess is that Houston won't be getting anymore sweet heart deals from the Tigers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Baseball
April 08, 2002
This is where I miss
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This is where I miss being in a research environment. Biggio hit for the cycle today in Colorado. It seems to me that there have been a lot of cycles at Coors, but I don't have the data base to check it out. Seems logical; it's a good triples and HR park. Congrats to Biggio!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Baseball
No Mo:
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Mo Vaughn has gone on the DL for the Mets. Piazza is hurt as well. This seems like the nightmare scenario to me. Mets put a good team together, if they stay healthy and play well. As far as I can tell, the team doesn't have a lot of depth. Sure, Alfonzo and Alomar can take them a long way if they play well all season, but that's a lot of pressure for two players. Maybe it's nothing. A wrist or thumb injury takes months to recover from. Maybe Piazza is just bruised. My feeling going into the season was the Mets should win 90 games, but could easily win 70. As the breaks go against them, 70 is going to seem a lot more likely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | Baseball
Argument Settled:
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I just read the introduction to Win Shares, but haven't gotten into the meat of the book. However, I did look to see if it settled an old argument. Ever since Rickey Henderson won the MVP in 1990, Dan Patrick has been steadfastly pointing out to me that Cecil Fielder deserved the award. His argument was that Cecil improved the Tigers by 20 games, and that the A's would have won without Rickey anyway. I would counter that Rickey created more runs, and that the success of the Tigers had as much to do with the addition of Tony Phillips and the pitching staff lowering it's ERA by a run. I always thought it was close, but Rickey was a little better and deserved the award. Well, I was wrong. It wasn't close. Rickey had 39 win shares that year, while Cecil had only 29. Sorry, Dan. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | Baseball
More on Hillenbrand:
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According to STATS, Inc, Hillenbrand has swung at only 1 of 18 pitches. That percentage is 5th lowest in the AL.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:40 PM | Baseball
Garner Gone:
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It didn't take long for Dave Dombrowski's axe to fall. Phil Garner and Randy Smith have been fired. Luis Pujols takes over on an interim basis. Dombrowski assumes the GM role. Dave may bring in Felipe Alou to manage.

I've never been impressed with Randy Smith, but I've always been impressed with Dombrowski. He's extremely intelligent, and given an owner who is willing to invest in winning, Dombrowski can turn a team around in a hurry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:03 PM | Baseball
Just want to welcome everyone
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Just want to welcome everyone who is finding this page via STATS Fantasy Advantage (you can sign up here). I hope you enjoy the site!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:18 PM | Baseball
Jeff Schinski of STATS, Inc.
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Jeff Schinski of STATS, Inc. tells me that Hillenbrand took 68% of first pitches last year. From what I remember, that would be poor. Hitters like Rickey Henderson and Frank Thomas are usually in the 80's. So this is a big improvement for Hillenbrand, if it lasts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:07 PM | Baseball
Win Shares:
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I just heard that Bill James new book, Win Shares has arrived at my house. Can't wait to sit down and read it. I'm sure I'll have comments about it over the next few days. If you want a copy, click on the link to STATS, Inc.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM | Baseball
In today's column, Rob Neyer
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In today's column, Rob Neyer notices that Shea Hillenbrand has not swung at a first pitch this year. I'm trying to find out what his first pitch take % was last year. I'll update if I can find it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM | Baseball
Griffey Hurt:
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Ken Griffey will be out 3 to 6 weeks, and possibly for the year due to a knee injury. For a long time (as early as 1992, I believe), Griffey has been my favorite to break Aaron's career record of 755 HR. Despite the injuries, he has managed to stay ahead of Aaron at the same age. This is important, because Aaron's best five year HR output came at a late age, 35 to 39, when he hit over 200 HR. This is why it's been hard to catch Henry. If you hit age 35 even with him, you have to equal the greatest HR barrage at that age just to fall 40 short of the record. Aaron had 398 HR through the 1965 season, when he was 31. Griffey was at 460 through that age. Aaron hit 44 HR in 1966, which means Griffey will still be ahead, no matter what, but the gap will be significantly narrowed. My feeling going into the year was that if Griffey had a monster season (50+ HR), he was almost sure to do it. Now, I'm starting to have my doubts. Sosa is looking better, but he's a year older than Griffey, and just ahead of Aaron by 8 HR through age 32. Bonds is the real wild card. Another 70+ season puts him around 640 HR through age 37 (that's July 1 age). At that point, it's a matter of staying healthy. McGwire looked really good a couple of years ago, but blew out quickly. The same could easily happen to Bonds. A-Rod is quickly becoming my favorite, for the same reasons Griffey was 10 years ago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM | Baseball
April 07, 2002
Wisconsin Lottery Player of the Game:
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Curt Schilling ended up with 17 K in beating the Brewers 2-0, and winning the Wisconsin Player of the Game Award. You could probably give him the Getty No-Lead Award as well. :-) Brewer batters now have 12 walks and 58 strikeouts. This team has to start putting the bat on the ball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:36 PM | Baseball
Ichiro Swinging:
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Bob Finnigan of the Seattle Times has a good take on Ichiro swinging at pitches outside of the strikezone. My good friend Jim Storer and I were discussing this very topic yesterday. My basic feeling is that as long as you have a high on-base average, it doesn't matter how you get on base. My problem with Ichiro swinging at pitches outside of the strikezone is that it hurts his offense. Players have lower batting averages when they swing at outside pitches. They give the pitcher an advantage by giving the pitcher a favorable count. I have no way of knowing for sure, but I would guess that most of the hits Ichiro gets on pitches out of the strike zone are singles. If he waited for the fat pitches, he would probably hit more balls into the gaps, and with his speed, they would probably be triples. I'm not complaining about Ichiro; he's a great hitter with possibly better bat control than Gwynn or Boggs. But my gut feeling is that by learning to take balls out of the strike zone, Ichiro could amaze us all. Maybe even hit .400.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:52 PM | Baseball
Brewer K's:
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Schilling has struck out 8 Brewers through 4 IP. Everyone in the Brewer lineup but Casanova has K'd so far. When is Lopes going to do something about this. They couldn't hit Johnson yesterday, and they can't hit Schilling today. Does anyone else think that Lopes should say to the team, "You aren't making contact with the big swings, so everybody choke up and just try to make contact!" At least they are saving Bud money on the air-conditioning bill. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:21 PM | Baseball
Clemens Back to Normal:
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Looks like Clemens trouble on Opening Day was just the hand injury. He's pitching magnificently today. He's striking people out, and not thowing too many pitches to accomplish that (9 K, 92 pitches over 7.1 IP). Which leads me to this thought; given what the starters have accomplished over the last 5 games, do the Yankees really need to carry eleven pitchers? If on average, the starters go seven innings, do you really need six people in the bullpen to finish those last two innings? Here's a chance for the Yankees to reverse a trend that's helping to dilute pitching, and at the same time give Torre more offensive and defensive flexibility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Baseball
More Tiger Trouble:
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Lynn Henning of The Detroit News has another take on the Tigers problems, this time from a draft perspective. One quote I particularly like has to do with the way the Yankees and other top teams were built:


The Yankees could spend $200 million on free agents and not be as structurally strong as they are because of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, and Alfonso Soriano, all of them up-the-middle players the Yankees drafted.

Atlanta developed Tom Glavine, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Javy Lopez, etc. Oakland has become a terrific team, not only because Jason Giambi helped them get there before bolting for New York, but because excellent front-line pitching was developed at the same time the infield's left side was being anchored with tremendous talent in the persons of Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada.

This has basically been my response whenever someone says, "The Yankees just buy the pennant." In my opinion, the Yankees could have signed four average players at the corners this year and done extremely well because they have this great home grown talent at the important positions. They went overboard to have a great team, but that's the competitiveness of the owner.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:05 PM | Baseball
April 06, 2002
Where's Mo? I notice in
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Where's Mo? I notice in the Mets boxscore that Mo Vaughn isn't in the lineup. I looked on the internet for a reason, but since I can't find one I assume he's not playing because the lefty Glavine is pitching. If anyone knows another reason, please let me know. Lefties usually hit Glavine well, and I hadn't heard that Mo was going to be platooned at first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM | Baseball
Randy Johnson is pitching against
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Randy Johnson is pitching against the Brewers. He has 8 K through 4 innings. When Johnson pitches against the Brewers, the over/under on strikeouts has to be at least 16.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Baseball
The Pirates are off to
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The Pirates are off to a 4-1 start after beating the Cubs 6-1 today. So far, kudos need to go to the pitching staff and Aramis Ramirez. The pitching staff has a 2.45 ERA, and although they have allowed 5 HR, they have all been solo shots. The staff also has an excellent 2.33 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Ramirez has a .409 OBA and a .550 slugging percentage. No HR yet, but he has 3 doubles in his 8 hits. Young and Reese are playing well. If Kendall comes around, the offense could be decent. One wonders how much the departure of Bell improved the whole attitude of the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 PM | Baseball
The Detroit Tigers are now
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The Detroit Tigers are now 0-5, after losing 5-3 to the Indians today. They have been outscored 35-12. That means that the average score of a Tigers game is 7-2. Seven to two. The question is, when will heads start to roll. Jerry Green of the Detroit News has a take on that here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 PM | Baseball
Changes in KC?
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Last year, the Royals batters struckout more than twice as often as they walked (898 K, 406 BB). Last night (Friday) they drew 5 walks and did not strike out at all. Despite being shut out today, they did walk 4 times and K 6, giving them 13 BB and 16 K for the year. It's early, but this is a trend worth watching. If KC has adapted a policy of trying to get on base rather than swinging for the fences, maybe Sweeney won't need to exercise his escape clause.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM | Baseball
April 05, 2002
Alou or Ward?
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Last year, hosting Baseball Tonight Online, the question often came up about Astros and what they should do with Alou. My feeling was that they should have traded Alou in the middle of the season. His trade value was never going to be higher, and some team would probably be willing to give up a bunch of prospects to get him. And if they kept him for the playoff run, then I thought they should let him go at the end of the season and go with the younger Ward. That was the choice the Astros made. So far it's been a good one. Alou is on the DL again, and Ward is off to a good start. He's 2 for 3 tonight as I write this, raising his average to .429. Now, I don't think he's that good a hitter, but he'll be 27 this year, which means he has more upside potential than Alou.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | Baseball
Barry, Barry Good: Something is
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Barry, Barry Good: Something is wrong with Bonds. He's only hit 1 HR in his last two games, bringing his projected total down to 203 from 324. :-)

He almost hit another one in the first inning. He smacked the ball 421 feet but it was caught by Kotsay. Jon Miller made a perfect call on the shot. You could tell by the level of his voice when the ball was struck that it had a chance of going out. His level of excitement rose as the ball carried toward the wall. And just as you thought it was going out, "Caught by Kotsay!" He made you feel like you were at the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Baseball
They Never Learn:
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Earlier tonight, I was watching the Expos-Reds game. The announcers started talking about Barry Larkin being with one team for 17 years, and how that was the longest in the majors now that Ripken and Gwynn had retired. And of course, they have to say how these are the last of those players. I remember them saying that when Brett and Yount retired. They probably said it when Puckett and Mattingly and Stargell and Yaz and Mantle and Musial and Williams retired. But then, of course they name four other players who have been with one team for a long career; Edgar Martinez, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. So how rare is it for someone to spend a long career with one team? My guess is that it's no more uncommon than it used to be. Maybe one of my friends at STATS, Inc. can confirm that for me. After all, Ruth, Cobb, Speaker, Aaron, Mays, Cy Young and many other Hall of Famers played for multiple teams. Moving around is the rule. Because of free agency, it seems like players move around more, but with the number of active players mentioned, it doesn't seem unusual for players to stay put, either.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | Baseball
Duck's on the Mound: Duckworth
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Duck's on the Mound: Duckworth has 8 K through 4 innings for the Phillies. And he's averaging 17 pitches per inning, pretty good for that many strikeouts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:42 PM | Baseball
Dodger Season Tickets Available
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Last night, as I was watching the start of the SF-LA game, Vin Scully read a promotion for season tickets. If you buy 2 loge seats, you get two free. Vin said this was the first time the Dodgers ever made such an offer. Why has this happened? The Dodgers were at one time the attendance kings. Every year they would nearly sell out every game, when other teams were happy to 20,000. The Dodgers always drew over 2 million. Now they can't give seats away.

I believe the answer is a poor team. Through the 60's, 70's and 80's, the Dodgers put good teams on the field. They made a number of World Series appearances, and won a good number of them. They were a successful, winning franchise, and their fans supported them. Look at the team now, however. They have scored two runs in three games. The team BA, OBA and Slugging Pct. are all under .200. Barry Bonds has out-homered them 4-0.

Instead of trying to build a winner, they took their best offensive player and traded him for Brian Jordan. I've never heard much negative said about Jordan in the media, but he doesn't get on base very well, and he doesn't hit for that much power. Compare him to Sheffield for their careers:

Career Through 4/4/2002         Jordan      Sheffield
BA                                .286           .295
OBA                               .336           .399
Slugging Pct                      .469           .522
Age                                 35             33

Sure, the batting averages are close, but nothing else is. And despite the fact that Sheffield has been around the majors longer, Jordan is two years older! The Dodgers are supposed to be a large market, rich powerhouse. It's about time they started acting like one and hiring people (like Steinbrenner does) who can make the right moves to build a good team and realize the wealth that can create.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 AM | Baseball
April 04, 2002
Just to keep hammering at
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Just to keep hammering at getting on base, in the Brewer's-Astros games, both teams had 10 hits, but the Astros drew 9 walks to Milwaukee's 1, and won 6-3. There are some people who think walks are totally a function of the pitcher, but it's really at least as much a function of the batter. Look at Ichiro. You can throw him balls over his head, down in the dirt, and he'll swing at them. He's tough to walk. He makes up for it by getting on base from his tremendous number of hits, but batters selectivity in not swinging at balls has as much to do with drawing walks as a pitcher's ability to throw strikes. It's something the Brewers need to work on based on last season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | Baseball
Gary Sheffield hit his 3rd
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Gary Sheffield hit his 3rd HR tonight. A Bonds/Sheffield/Sosa HR race could be a lot of fun (Sosa also went deep tonight). Do you remember that Sheffield's first team was the Milwaukee Brewers? He hated it there, and never performed well. Had 21 HR in 4 seasons with the Brewers, got himself traded to the Padres, and hit 33 HR in 1992. I always wondered why he never got along with Bud's bunch. If you have someone with that talent, shouldn't you try to make him happy? I know he wears out his welcome, but it would really be worth it for someone to find a way to make him comfortable.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM | Baseball
Chipper Busy in Left:
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Tim Tucker writes about Chipper Jones' move to left. I don't think I agree with this statement, however:


Generally, left field is less taxing than third base, leading to the theory that Jones, with his fielding burden decreased, will put up even grander offensive numbers this season --- even grander than the numbers that made him the first third baseman in major-league history with six consecutive seasons of 100-plus RBIs.

I was under the impression that Chipper was moved because his defense at third base was poor, not that he needed to increase his offense. As Tucker alludes to in this paragraph, it's hard to improve on the numbers Jones has accumulated in his career.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 PM | Baseball
Doug Davis pitched a good
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Doug Davis pitched a good game for Texas. Rocker did his best to blow it, but the Rangers still won. Davis showed great improvement last year. His career:

YR TEAM LG W L PCT G SV IP H R ER TBB SO HR ERA
1999 Tex AL 0 0 .000 2 0 2.2 12 10 10 0 3 3 33.75
2000 Tex AL 7 6 .538 30 0 98.2 109 61 59 58 66 14 5.38
2001 Tex AL 11 10 .524 30 0 186.0 220 103 92 69 115 14 4.45

Notice the two big improvements, BB and HR. He nearly brought his ERA down a run. If he can do that again, he'll be the ace of the staff.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | Baseball
Babe Johnson:
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Just saw Nick Johnson come to the plate for the Yankees. I've heard peopel say he looks like Babe Ruth, but I never had a good look at him before. The second he stepped to the plate, I saw it, and thought, "He does look like Ruth." And just to cement it, he hit a HR. Great uppercut swing. I bet he'll do well playing a season in Yankee Stadium.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Baseball
The Rockies beat the Cardinals
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The Rockies beat the Cardinals 6 to 1 today, despite being out hit 8 to 5. I love linescores like that; it makes me want to examine the boxscore closely. The Rockies had only 5 hits, but they also had 5 walks while St. Louis only had 1. So the Rockies reached base 10 times, while the Cardinals only reached base 9 times. As far as power, the Rockies had 3 extra base hits, while St. Louis had 7 singles. So the Rockies had men on base, and power to drive them in. St. Louis out stole them 2-0, which once again shows the small value of a stolen base if you can't follow it up with hits.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | Baseball
OBA Debate:
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Some quotes from Baseball Prospectus. The first half is different opinions on getting on base. I think Bonds says it well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM | Baseball
Kudos to the Mets for
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Kudos to the Mets for playing three day games to open the season. The weather is bad enough without making the fans freeze in their seats at night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:33 PM | Baseball
Bullpen Strategy:
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Not a good night for the bullpens in the AL West Coast games. Oakland and Texas each took turns blowing the game, while Bob Wickman put up a poor save (allowing 2 runs with a three run lead). The rest of the Cleveland bullpen pitched 2 1/2 no-hit innings, but Wickman gets the credit for a poor performance. It's sad that a stat that was invented to award good late inning performance has changed the way pitchers are used. Why couldn't Riske, who pitched well, pitch 3 innings and finish the game? Why not go back to the strategy that you only bring in a reliever when you need to, and that reliever (especially when you have a lead) should be expected to finish the game? Maybe teams could then cut back to 10 pitchers instead of 12, and we could cut down offense by having less diluted pitching staffs. Same thing happened in the White Sox-Mariners game. Osuna was pitching well, but it's the ninth with a three run lead, so you have to go to Foulke, who blows the game. Stats and contracts should not dictate strategy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 AM | Baseball
April 03, 2002
Buy Bonds: Bonds goes deep
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Buy Bonds: Bonds goes deep again. Just crushed the ball. Nomo is not fooling anyone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 PM | Baseball
Don't Go Home Early:
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The Expos scored 5 runs in the last two innings tonight. Not enough to overcome the Marlins' lead, but two exciting nights of baseball in Montreal. Too bad only 4,771 showed up tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | Baseball
Cubs Comebacks:
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I was just looking at the Cubs in-progress boxscore. Sammy got his 1st HR of the year, and so did Todd Hundley. Hundley is off to a hot start. If he can come back to 80% of his best years with the Mets, the Cubs offense will be superb. Kerry Wood had a semi-impressive outing. His line:

5 IP, 3H, 2ER, 4BB,10K, 104 pitches.

Wood was unhittable tonight, but only unhittable for 5 innings, since I assume the Cubs have him on a pitch count. Wood has a great fastball, and it's good that he strikes out a lot of batters. But it would be much better if he could use those 104 pitches over 7 or 8 innings, rather than 5. Whenever you give the game to the bullpen early, there is a higher chance they are going to blow it. It's probably the biggest reason that the percentage of starts ending in decisions keeps going down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 PM | Baseball
Kent vs. Sabean:
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ESPN.com has the following article about the strain between Jeff Kent and Brian Saben. Here's the gist of the dispute:


Kent is on the disabled list with a fractured left wrist, and is eligible to return on Saturday. However, he says he's fully healed and ready to play right now.

"A player's contract starts Opening Day, and I'm ready to play," Kent told the Contra Costa Times on Tuesday. "That's got nothing to do with how the injury happened -- on the off-field, which is personal. It was up to the organization to put me on the DL, and I respect that. If they want to make further judgment, that's their prerogative."

In his response, Sabean was far from sympathetic.

"He should have thought more about his actions that put him and the club in this position. I didn't break his wrist," Sabean told MLB.com. "What I say is 'tough luck.' We're well within our rights. You can't tell me that ... two exhibition games down in Scottsdale is getting him ready to face Kevin Brown or Hideo Nomo, and I think that's very prudent. So too bad for Jeff. I'm up to here with Jeff."


Last year, Kent made headlines when he accused Bonds of not being a good teammate. His beef, as I remember it, was that Bonds was aloof from his teammates. Now, I don't know how Kent broke his wrist, but if he did it falling off a motorcycle he wasn't supposed to be riding, what kind of teammate is he? He's the 2nd or 3rd best hitter on the team, and he's not available to his teammates to help him win. Kent should think real hard before criticizing teammates in the future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM | Baseball
Does it bother anyone that
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Does it bother anyone that Steve Trachsel is the Mets #2 starter? It's not like he had a great spring, putting up a 5.47 ERA. Only 3 walks however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:20 PM | Baseball
Looks like Jesse Orosco signed
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Looks like Jesse Orosco signed a major league contract, so he's now the oldest player in the majors. Must be part of the Dodger's youth movement. :-)

I was glad to see David Eckstein get headlines today. Soriano gets the hype, but Eckstein gets on base.

A's keep pitching well. Selig should be holding them up as a model of how to build a good team on a tight budget, rather than destroying teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 AM | Baseball
April 02, 2002
The 34,000 in Montreal tonight
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The 34,000 in Montreal tonight certainly got a treat. Down 5 runs, the Expos scored 3 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th to win the game. The crowd was going wild. I'm glad the Expos won, and I'm glad the Twins won yesterday. I hope the fans of both those teams turn out strong for these two teams. It's up to you, people of Minnesota and Montreal to prove Bud wrong. Show him that these two teams shouldn't disappear. Out with a bang, not a whimper!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Baseball
Javier Vazquez, the all-time best
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Javier Vazquez, the all-time best scoring Scrabble name in MLB history, gives up a HR to Derrek Lee. I wonder if the Expos fans will show up this year? Will the actions of MLB make them come out and support the team? Or will they stay away even more than last year?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM | Baseball
Ben Grieve just doubled in
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Ben Grieve just doubled in his first AB of the season. I hope Ben turns it around this year. He showed good power when he first came up with Oakland, and he still gets on base fairly well. He's 26 this year; it's time to put up a monster season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 PM | Baseball
Pat Reusse has a positive
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Pat Reusse has a positive article about Mike Jackson:


"He studies hitters from the first inning," Romero said. "He has a lot of knowledge, and he shares it."

Mike Sweeney greeted Jackson with a single. That brought up Michael Tucker. Jackson's knowledge bank including giving up a home run to Tucker in Houston last year.

"This is a bigger ballpark than [Houston's] Enron Field," Jackson said. "I didn't have to be as concerned about a fly ball."

Tucker flied out to left. Then, Jackson broke Joe Randa's bat with a sinker and those middle-infield magicians -- Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas -- turned it into a double play.

"The problem, what I had heard, was the Twins' bullpen kind of let them down later on last season," Jackson said. "That's one reason I was interested in coming here.

"I knew the starting pitchers were very good, and that this bullpen had a big opportunity to do well. I'm here to help any way I can."

I find that really interesting. Jackson looked at the Twins and thought he could help. Good starters would make his job easier. Seems like an intelligent guy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 PM | Baseball
In the Park Formerly Known
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In the Park Formerly Known as Enron, Wade Miller was unusually wild. Not only did he walk 2 in 4 innings, but he hit 2 batters and threw a wild pitch. Ben Sheets, on the other hand, was in control of everything, walking none and striking out 8 in six innings. So far, the Brewers batters have 3 BB and 6 K through 8 innings. Could this be a sign of more selectivity for one of the most free swinging teams in the majors? Two of the K's were by Sheets. I'll try to keep my eye on this as the season progresses.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 PM | Baseball
Barry Bonds picks up where
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Barry Bonds picks up where he left off last year with a two HR game vs. the Dodgers. He hit his last 3 vs. the Dodgers last year according to this article on ESPN.com. Sosa's in a hole already, but we all know June is his best month. :-)

A bigger story might be Livan Hernandez, who went 8 innings and only allowed 4 hits. I'm not sure if this says more about the Dodgers offense or Livan's off-season conditioning. Baker did allow Hernandez to throw 122 pitches, which seems like a lot to me for opening day. But if Hernandez is back to his old form, the Giants rotation should be greatly improved. You also have to love the fact that he added two hits with his bat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 PM | Baseball
I get an e-mail from
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I get an e-mail from my friends at STATS, Inc. everyday during the baseball season with a lot of esoteric stuff, but one line I like tells me the oldest and youngest active major leaguers. Here's today's:


Youngest Guy in the Majors: Hank Blalock Born: 11/21/80 Age: 21 Oldest Guy in the Majors: Rickey Henderson Born: 12/25/58 Age: 43

What I found interesting is the Blalock is the youngest, and he's 21. I would think there is almost always a 20 year old on some team. Maybe the crack down on lying about one's age has taken it's toll on the supposed youth of players. Anyway, Ricky was in the majors for a year and a half before Blalock was born.

Chan Ho Park did not throw a good game for Texas last night. Critics of Park have pointed to his high road ERA when playing for the Dodgers. Something to watch this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Baseball
April 01, 2002
Hank Blalock sngles in his
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Hank Blalock sngles in his first AB and ties the game with an RBI. Picture perfect swing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | Baseball
The early story in the
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The early story in the Oakland game is Mulder's efficiency. Twenty-two pitches in the first two innings. Could we have another sub-100 pitch complete game?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | Baseball
Pedro and Clemens got rocked.
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Pedro and Clemens got rocked. You don't see that too often. Meanwhile, Randy Johnson picked up where he left off last year, pitching a shutout and striking out 8. But 128 pitches on opening day? Colon was very economical in his shutout, throwing less than 100 pitches. I don't know what they are thinking with Johnson. Certainly, Brenly can't be afraid of his bullpen this early.

It was nice to see Jacque Jones of the Twins open the game with a HR. Sort of saying, "In your face, Bud." He added another one later in the game. Radke didn't pitch well, but the bullpen went 4 2/3 scoreless. Knoblauch had a hit and a BB, doing what a leadoff man should do.

The White Sox beat the Mariners, but just barely. Lucky for them, Lou went with the one run strategy in the 9th, giving an out away with a bunt with men on 1st and 2nd. If you are going to bunt, that's the place to do it. Boone was coming up, and Manuel decided to pitch to him, and Boone grounded one back to the pitcher. I guess the White Sox don't believe Boone's season was for real. They did walk Edgar after that to load the bases, and Cameron popped out to end the game.

Tom Glavine pitched a good game. Love to see Tom do well. And the new additions, Sheffield and Castilla both homered for the Braves. Leiter pitched well also, making it a pretty good day for old lefties. Al is a class guy, by the way. He worked with us a couple of post-seasons on BBTN, and was a intelligent, easy-going and generous. Glad to see him do well. Mo Vaughn provided solid 0 for 5 leadership, however.

Todd Walker provided some punch in the Red Victory today. Three for four from the leadoff spot with 2 doubles and a HR. I never understood why he was in Tom Kelly's doghouse, and why Minnesota let him go. A great replacement for Pokey Reese.

The heart of the St. Louis order was beating strong today. Drew, Pujols and Edmonds combined to go 5 for 10 with 6 runs, 4 rbi and 4 doubles. Matt Morris made it look easy with 7 K through 7 innings.

Looking forward to the Texas-Oakland game tonight. We'll see if Chan Ho Park was worth the money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | Baseball
Just looked at the Yankee
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Just looked at the Yankee lineup. Soriano leading off, Nick Johnson batting ninth. Torre has it backwards. The best OBA guy on the team should bat first, not the worst. At least they have Giambi 3rd instead of 4th. The big guys need to be in a position where they get more AB.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM | Baseball
Well, even though I paid,
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Well, even though I paid, I can't get into the MLB game audio section. Figures they would screw it up. I'll have to follow games with the Baseball Direct Scoreboard. Looks like Pedro's spring troubles followed him into the first inning today, allowing 3 runs. Gary Sheffield got his first RBI for Atlanta, and Glavine started, so Maddux must really have a pain in the butt. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:43 PM | Baseball
Greg Maddux may not start
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Greg Maddux may not start today due to a sore buttocks. This has to be an April Fool's joke. If not, Maddux will certainly be the butt of jokes today. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 AM | Baseball
Due to a family emergency,
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Due to a family emergency, I didn't get to see much of the Indians at Angels last night. The little I saw of the game, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan seem to be speculating that Colon might have turned a corner in his career. They pointed out that he had good movement on his pitches, and they showed replays demonstrating his command of the strike zone both on the inside and outside of the plate. He only threw 98 pitches, allowing himself to complete a start on opening day, and his strike to ball ratio was 2 to 1, which is excellent.

On the other hand, he only struck out 5. Credit the Angels here with getting the bat on the ball (although on replays the Angels seemed to hit a lot of nubbers) and the Indians defense for making a number of tough plays. So now a story line to watch early in the season is Colon. Is this a turning point? Is he going to be less of a strikeout pitcher? If so, is the Indian defense without Lofton and Alomar up to the task?

Games start at 1 EST today. Phillies-Braves, White Sox-Mariners look like the best games. Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 AM | Baseball