Mike Crooker writes:

I'm watching the bottom of the 3rd inning of Cubs-Astros game today on
WGN and Steve Stone was going on (and on) about pitcher Roy Oswalt, who
just came off the D/L today. And that the Astros would be lucky/glad to
get six innings out of him and then turn it over to their bullpen which
has a very good ERA. Then, Chip Caray says "so, what your saying is, that
Oswalt will not act alone."

I don't think Stone got it... ;)

Nothing like a good conspiracy joke. :-)

The Cubs and Astros are tied 0-0 in the 14th inning. Astros pitchers are striking out everyone; the four have combined for 21 K, or two an inning.

Darrell May of the KC Royals has to be one disappointed pitcher today. He pitched well enough to win against the Oakland A's, but three unearned runs in the 9th off Mike MacDougal caused the Royals to lose the game. Coming into today, Oakland had scored 27 unearned runs, fourth highest in the AL.

Given the pitching matchups I'm seeing out there, I think there are going to be a lot of runs scored today. :-) If you're looking for great matchups, however, the NL Central is the place to be. The Astros Roy Oswalt goes against Chicago's Carlos Zambrano, and Kip Wells of the Priates faces Woody Williams (7-0) of the Cardinals. Two games separate the Cubs, Astros and Cards, and while only playing .434 ball, the Pirates are only six games out. Great race this year in the NL Central.

Update: I was just looking at the Yankees interleague schedule, and notice that they are playing the top four teams in the NL Central. However, only the Cardinals and Astros have to play the Red Sox. This shoulc give the Cubs and Reds a bit of a boost.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	800	795
Attendance	25629	26694

Baseball Prospectus Radio will have a call in show tomorrow morning (Saturday). You can call at 9 AM EDT/6 AM PDT at 800-TALK-2-90. Get your hardest questions ready for Will Carroll to answer!

I was just about to praise the Mets 5-0 victory over the Phillies last night (Trachsel beat Millwood) when I saw that Rey Sanchez was batting 2nd in the order. I'll chalk that one up to luck.

I was just looking at yesterday's scoreboard, and I noticed that nine of the ten games yesterday were won by the road team. Road teams have won 47 percent of games this year, vs. 46% last year.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	785	780
Attendance	25611	26563

Attendance seems to be catching up a little this week. A friend of mine wondered how the Expos are doing. In San Juan, they averaged 14,282. In Montreal, they are averaging 11,338. They've had two crowds over 30,000, but six game in the 5,000s.

So while I'm at my mother's wake, the Red Sox finally trade Shea Hillenbrand. In return, they get Byun-Hyung Kim from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Baseball Crank does a good job of summing up the trade. I'm also waiting to see what Bambino's Curse has to say about the move.

I have commented on Hillenbrand a bit over the last year. I don't think much of his defense at third. Last year I commented that Hillenbrand seemed to be drawing more walks; after a good start, he slowed down and only drew 25 for the year. He hits much better early (April-May) than late, so the Red Sox probably got the best of the year out of him.

The Arizona third basemen have not hit well this year, but outside the Cardinals and the Marlins, no team NL team is putting up a lot of offense at third base. As Mark Gonzales of the Arizona Republic reports, Hillenbrand may also play first base (the article also gives a good view of the deal from the Arizona perspective, something you won't see much in wire stories).

Meanwhile, Kim pitched much better than his 1-5 record would indicate. His run support per nine innings was only 1.7, too low for an ERA of 3.56. He's given up six HR, but part of that is BankOne; he's allowed 3 HR in 11 innings at BankOne Ballpark, but only 3 in 32 innings on the road this year. One thing I was worried about with Kim moving to a stater role this year was the number of pitches he threw. He tended to use a lot as a reliever. He's been throwing 15.8 per inning this year, down a bit from last year, but a reasonable number.

This now gives the Red Sox two ex-closers in their rotation. I think it's a great trade for the Red Sox and a good trade for the DBacks. The Sox were able to get a good, possibly great young pitcher for a player whose stats aren't as good as they look. Arizona got the kind of player that seems to blossom in the desert. I'll give Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe the last word on the deal:

Epstein deserves credit for being able to get what he did in this deal. Rookie Freddy Sanchez, who has had an outstanding spring in Triple A, can spell Todd Walker at second, and Bill Mueller's other-worldly slugging has earned him the right to play every day at third. David Ortiz and Kevin Millar will platoon at first, and if Jeremy Giambi doesn't start hitting, the Sox will add another bat.

''I think the Sox did well,'' the NL scout said. ''The team is in the place in the standings where they want to be, and if I'm in your place, I'd do the same thing.''

It looks like Mo Vaughn will not be returning to the Mets, according to this ESPN.com story. It's a good news/bad news story. Mo's knee is in really bad shape, and if he played he risks permanent disability. The good news is that he gets paid 15 million dollars next year to rest. No work and pay.

The White Sox travel north of the border to battle SARS and the Blue Jays. The powerful Blue Jays offense faces Esteban Loaiza, who is leading the AL in ERA at 1.92. He'll be facing Cory Lidle, who has the 2nd highest run support per 9 in the AL, 7.88. Something has to give.

Seattle has been helping the Twins extend their AL Central lead, and now they visit the Hubie Dome to take on the Twins. It's Meche vs. Radke, and Radke has had problems with the Mariners in his career, posting a 5-9 record with a 5.38 ERA.

In the NL, the Astros try to move into a tie for 2nd place in the NL Central with a win over the Cardinals. Redding faces Morris.

Bronx Banter reports that Buster Olney is leaving the NY Times for ESPN. (Here's the permalink, but it doesn't work yet.) Looks like he's leaving because of the way the Times is being managed. If you want to learn more about the scandal at the Times, you can try Instapundit and Andrew Sullivan.

Yesterday, I answer the phone at my Dad's house, and it's a telemarketer trying to sell a home subscription to the NY Times. In general, I hang up on these people, but I couldn't resist knocking the Times. "That's the worst paper in the world," I said. "What do you mean?" the salesman replied. "You can't trust anything they say," I answered, "they print lies." "Oh, yeah," he replied and hung up.

The joke used to be that whenever a manager was given a vote of confidence by an owner, he was on his way out. Bruce Bochy has gotten such a vote of confidence, as reported by Tom Krasovic in the SD Union-Tribune.

Moores has said Bochy's job is safe. Further endorsements came yesterday from Towers and the injury-ravaged team's only projected core player still on the active roster, Ryan Klesko.

"Bruce is not to blame for the way the team is playing," said Towers, before last night's 4-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. "I can put that to rest. He is not on the hot seat. And he will not be on the hot seat as long as I'm here."

Does Bochy really deserve not to be on the hot seat? Yes, the Padres have suffered extensive injuries, but consider this:

Bochy's frustration boiled over Monday night on the team's flight home from Phoenix. In the 41/3 seasons since Bochy guided the Padres to the 1998 World Series, his five Padres clubs have posted more defeats than 13 other National League clubs (only the Brewers and Pirates have been worse).

Someone in management is doing a bad job here. Someone should be on the hot seat.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	775	771
Attendance	25695	26624

With all the problems they've had over the last few weeks, the Yankees have won when it counted, beating Boston four out of six. Yes, the Red Sox are still in first place, but the Yankees redeemed themselves from their dreadful showings vs. Texas and Toronto by bending but not breaking tonight. One thing I will never understand is losing a game on a bases loaded walk. You know if you throw the ball out of the strike zone the game is over. And against a team like the Yankees, you aren't going to fool many batters. So, why not, in a situation like that, just throw the ball down the middle of the plate? Even on fat pitches, you have a decent chance of getting an out.

Rafael Furcal is three for three tonight with two HR. He's now batting .342 with a .408 OBA and a .568 slugging percentage. Plus, he's a pretty good shortstop. Seems like he's the leading candidate at the moment for NL MVP.

The best pitching matchup today is in Chicago where the Pirates send Jeff D'Amico to the mound vs. Mark Prior. Both are undefeated in their careers vs. their opponent. D'Amico is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA against the Cubs, and Prior is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA vs. the Pirates. The Bucs are only six game behind the Cubs now, and are trying to extend their winning streak to 4 games.

In the AL, the A's-Twins and Red Sox-Yankees lead the bill. The Twins had a big comeback last night on an 8th inning, PH HR by Bobby Kielty. The Yankees finally broke out of their funk, and send Mussina to the mound tonight to see if he can break out of his.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	760	756
Attendance	25728	26711

My mother's obituary from the Connecticut Post. At the moment, her name is misspelled. It should be Jacqueline, and they are in the process of fixing that. Thanks again for all the support all of you have sent my way these last few weeks.

In case you haven't noticed, Barry Bonds is back in the Giants lineup tonight.

Pettitte ends Nomar's hit streak at 26, but Lofton went 3 for 5 to extend his hit streak to 25. We'll see how far Kenny can take his now.

I'm not sure how many Yankee fans feel this way, but Michele at A Small Victory is a Yankee fan that does not like Roger Clemens. My uncle Anthony feels the same way. I wonder if this is common among Yankee fans?

Edgar Martinez has two HRs tonight, a two-run and a three-run shot, giving him five RBI. If he can hit a solo and a slam tonight, he'll hit the for the cycle in HRs. :-) An impressive season for a 40-year-old, or for any age.

The Reds and Braves are tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 4th. The Reds could have a big lead, however, as they've gone 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position tonight.

The Braves lineup continues to impress me. The lowest batting average in the lineup tonight is Lopez's .282, and the lowest slugging percentage is Fick's .473.

Brian Giles has walked twice and scored twice vs. the Cubs tonight. He's had great sucess vs. the Cubs in his career, scoring 48 runs and driving in 48 runs in 60 games. Coming into tonight, he had a .471 OBA and a .703 slugging percentage vs. the Cubs. The slugging hasn't changed yet, but the OBA will go higher.

Todd Zeile breaks the solo HR streak with a 2-run shot for the Yankees.

Al Leiter is up 4-0 in the fourth. He's having an interesing game, as he's walked 4 through three innings, but has only allowed 1 hit and struck out five. Leiter has walked a lot of batters this year, (31 in 60.1 innings coming into tonight). All last year he only walked 69. He was 7th in walks in the NL coming into tonight.

Andy Pettitte seems to think the answer to the Yankees losing streak is to pitch a great game. Through four innings tonight, he's given up 1 hit and struck out 4. He's also averaging 16 pitches per inning. With two solo HR tonight, the last 10 HR by the Yankees have all been solo shots.

As the Angels face Baltimore, I notice both are scoring 5.0 runs per game. I was surprised by this, because on the surface it looks like the Angels have better hitting stats. Both team hit very well with runners in scoring position, but the difference is less than their overall averages. For the moment, I'll chalk it up to luck. The Orioles are up 5-0 tonight.

I just heard on the Yankee radio broadcast that Bernie Williams underwent knee surgery this afternoon.

My mom passed away this morning. My dad and I were present. She went peacefully after suffering for a long time. Thanks to all who have sent their best wishes over the last few weeks.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	746	741
Attendance	25780	26841

You know, it's been a pretty good year for baseball so far. Twenty-three teams are within eight games of first place. The Expos, the Royals and the Blue Jays are doing unexpectedly well. Injuries are bringing a new group of power hitters to the fore in the NL. There's a lot going on. Take a friend (or better still, a group of friends) to a ball game and remind them how much fun you have at a game.

It's about two months into the season, so I thought I'd take a look at who is leading the majors in win shares. This is the short form version of the stat.

Player	Win Shares
Carlos Delgado	13.5
Gary Sheffield	12.0
Austin Kearns	11.9
Rafael Furcal	11.7
Alfonso Soriano	11.3
John Smoltz	10.9
Jose Vidro	10.5
Carl Everett	10.4
Jeff Kent	10.3
Marcus Giles	10.0
Todd Helton	9.9
Preston Wilson	9.9
Scott Rolen	9.8
Manny Ramirez	9.5
Esteban Loaiza	9.5
Barry Bonds	9.4
Eric Gagne	9.1
Ichiro Suzuki	9.1
Bill Mueller	8.9
Vladimir Guerrero	8.7
Edgar Martinez	8.7

Because the DH causes offensive wins to be distributed between 9 players instead of 8, it's very difficult for an American League hitter to lead the majors in win shares. That makes Carlos Delgado's wide lead even more impressive. Austin Kearns is showing that his injury shortened rookie year wasn't a fluke. It's not surprising that the Braves, with the best record in baseball have three players in the top 6, including Furcal. Most interesting, letting Jeff Kent go appears not to have been that good an idea, as he has put up more win shares than anyone on the Giants, including Barry Bonds. And maybe one of the biggest surprises on the list is Bill Mueller of the Red Sox in the top 20. Bill's already equaled his doubles total of last year.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	737	730
Attendance	25729	26806

Dr. Manhattan has his take on Moneyball over at Blissful Knowledge.

Thanks to all the servicemen past and present who fought so hard for this country. We're all proud of you. And to the families who have lost loved ones in the service of this country, you have our undying respect and sympathy.

Mom is in very bad shape. It's very hard for her to eat, and they've started giving her morphine to keep her calm. They are going to move her to a hospice suite in the hospital, where she will get care to keep her comfortable, but not anything to prolong her life. I'll be spending time with her and helping my dad and sister as much as possible.

Robert Tagorda has an excellent post at his Priorities & Frivolities blog comparing Gagne and Smoltz.

The Dodgers are 14-6 in May and have climbed back into the NL West race on the strength of their starters' arms. In March/April, the starters pitched well, posting a 3.55 ERA, but with the Dodgers scoring only 3.4 runs per game, the starters only had a 9-10 record. With the Dodger offense still stalled (3.3 runs per game in May), the staters lowered their ERA to 2.52 in May, and have a 13-2 record. I like their philosophy; if the batters aren't scoring enough, just pitch better. :-)

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	707	700
Attendance	25369	26601

With Bernie Williams out of the lineup, Joe Torre made changes with which I don't agree. He moved Matsui into the 2nd spot, and Jeter to the 3rd slot. Matsui has been a disappointment this season, showing neither the power or selectivity that his Japanese stats suggest. He has a .318 OBA, one of the worst of the starting nine. I see better options.

First, use this opportunity to move Soriano into the four hole where he belongs. Soriano's strength as a hitter is his power, and that's much better to have behind your on-base guys than in front of them. Then move Jeter to the leadoff spot. His combination of on-base and power is much more like a #1 hitter than a #3 hitter. Finally, move Ventura or Mondesi into the two hole. I like Ventura, because long term I think he'll have the better OBA. But Mondesi can run, and why not play the hot hand until he reverts to form? You could even leave the 1-2-3 as is and move Posada into the 4th slot. But moving Matsui 2nd when he hasn't proven he can get on base is not going to help the Yankees score runs.

I find it interesting that in late May neither Sammy Sosa nor Barry Bonds are in the top five in NL HR. Bonds is one off the list, and Sosa isn't in the top 25.

Entering this season, Bonds needed 142 HR to tie Aaron. He's on a pace to hit 42 this season. Three years of 42 doesn't do it. At the end of 2005, Bonds will have passed his 41st birthday. It will be interesting to see how close Bonds is at that point. If he's a couple of dozen away, I assume he'll hang on someplace. But if he's 30 or more away, it would mean his HR have fallen off, and I'm not sure he'll make it at that point. His OBA remains historically high; and as long as that's true, he'll have a place to play.

Sosa, so far, has only six HR on the season and is exactly 250 away from tieing Aaron. He's out with a foot injury, but at age 34 he probably can stand one bad year and still reach Aaron.

The interesting thing about the leader board is that there are three Reds in the top six, and none of them are named Griffey. The Reds are only 2 1/2 games out in the Central, and if Griffey starts to hit, that gives the Reds four serious HR threats. The real interesting thing about the Reds is that they have climbed back into the race mostly on luck. From April 23rd on they are 18-9, but have only outscored their opponents 151-147. They are 11-1 in one and two runs games in that period.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	692	686
Attendance	25322	26574

It's interesting that since Mike Piazza has been out of the lineup, the Mets are 4-1, with two wins vs. SF and 2 out of 3 vs. Philadelphia. The offense has been good, scoring 33 runs in the five games. Jayson Phillips is 9 for 15 during this streak. Mo must be wondering if he's going to have a job when he comes back.

My mom is in bad shape. She seems to have lost her will to live. I think it's only a matter of time now.

Thanks to everyone who has expressed their sympathy. It is greatly appreciated. Blogging will continue to be light over the next few days.

Despite losing Jose Hernandez, who had the 2nd highest total of HR on the Brewers in 2002, Milwaukee is 3rd in the NL in HR with 60 after a 4-HR game today. Jenkins hit three to exceed his 2002 total of 10. They were 15th in HR last in the NL with 139.

Sorry about the lame title, but I have a horrible cold and can't think all that straight (or creatively) at the moment. However, it is fitting. Look at this table:

Atlanta Braves	2002 (NL Rank)	2003 (NL Rank)
Runs per Game	4.4 (8th-T)	5.6 (1st)
Earned Run Average	3.13 (1st)	4.19 (10th)

Given the Braves moves in the off-season, a one-run increase in ERA was not an unreasonable projection. But where is the offense coming from? If you look at the top eight players in AB on the Braves 2002 vs. 2003, six of them are the same. Probably the biggest change is Giles vs. Lockhart at 2B, but everyone on this team is hitting. Furcal's OBA is up 70, Castilla's is up 60 and Sheffield is up 35. The Jones boys are down, but not much. This is an incredible offense turnaround, given that the team didn't make many moves. Maybe the offense finally realized they didn't have a great pitching staff to carry them? We'll see if it lasts. I have my doubts about Castilla and Furcal, but if Giles is for real that gives them four great offensive players (Jones, Jones, Sheffield and Giles), and that's usually enough to score a bunch of runs.

Yankees at Red Sox again. Whenever Pedro pitches there's a good shot at making game of the day. Martinez is 8-7 against the Yankees, and the Red Sox are 9-11 in his 20 starts. Jeff Weaver has been terrible against the Red Sox, with a 2-4 record and 6.10 ERA. He's allowed 5 HR in 23.2 IP at Fenway Park.

The other games to watch in the AL pit the top teams in the Central and West vs. the #2's in the Central and West (all the 1-2's are playing each other tonight). The surging Twins are in Oakland taking on the A's, while the fading Royals visit the Mariners.

In the NL, Kerry Wood takes his 76 K in 59 IP to Pittsburgh tonight. The Pirates baters are 5th in the NL in strikeouts. Their likely to move up.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	651	647
Attendance	25408	26558

Tigers scored 9 runs last night and lost. They wasted a three-HR game by Carlos Pena. I wanted to say "only the Tigers could lose a game like this, but it's the 13th time this year that a team has scored 9 runs and lost, and the first by the Tigers. Pena was supposed to be "can't miss" when the A's got him from the Rangers. Maybe, like Hank Blalock, he was a year early.

What a great game by Matt Morris this afternoon. A complete game shutout, only 4 hits, 8 K and no walks. Eighty-two of his 117 pitches were for strikes. Carlos Zambrano pitched nearly as well for the Cubs, but 1 run was all he needed to allow to pick up the loss, and his defense let it in.

I finally got a decent internet connection. I wanted to review this post about the three weeks leading up to this series.

The next few weeks will be an interesting time in the schedule, however. Starting Tuesday, and up until they meet the Red Sox on May 19th, the Yankees will play the four AL West teams. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, while not an easy schedule, face Texas, Anaheim, KC, Minnesota and Cleveland. It's an opportunity for the Red Sox to take advantage of the schedule to gain ground before they host New York for the first time.

At the time, the Yankees led by 2 games. The Red Sox could have made up a lot more ground, but they'll take being tied coming into tonight.

Texas at NY. How much do you think Buck Showalter wants to sweep the Yankees at the Stadium?

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	630	627
Attendance	25255	26374

Attendance seems to be losing ground every day.

Blogging will be light this week. I have a charity bike ride tomorrow, followed by a 3-day conference in Boston (computers, not baseball). My mom is not doing well, and I suspect that when the conference is over I'll be taking some time to spend with her. However, there are a number of fine blogs in the column on the right, so enjoy them while I'm forced to cut back.

The Toronto Blue Jays come into today tied for third in runs scored per game. They're doing everything well. They are hitting (.289 BA), they are getting on base (151 walks), and they are hitting for power (117 extra base hits, most in the AL). Unfortunately, their pitchers are letting the Jays opponents hit almost as well. The Blue Jays need a couple of good pitchers to contend. Their fellow countrymen, the Expos could use a little more offense and have good pitching. Should an intra-country trade be in the works?

I'm looking at the Cubs box score, and have noticed that Troy O'Leary is batting third, taking the spot of the injured Sammy Sosa. Troy doesn't really strike me as a #3 hitter. Yet managers seem to do this all the time. Someone's out of the lineup, so instead of rearranging the order to optimize the offense, they just stick the substitute in the vacated spot. O'Leary does have 2 HR and 7 RBI since Sosa's toe surgery, but he's only batting .267 with 0 BB and a .258 OBA!

Andy Pettitte's defense has cost him today. Errors by Ventura and Matsui have led to three unearned runs. While the Yankees fielding percentage isn't bad, the Yankees rank behind only Texas in defensive efficiency, the ability to turn a batted ball into an out. Two third of all batted balls (not counting HR) are allowed to fall for hits. It's a good thing their pitchers strike out as many as they do to cover this weakness.

I'm looking at the Mariners-Tigers in-progress box score, and what strikes me is the vast differences in batting average. In the Mariners first seven slots, no one has a batting average below .282 (in the fifth inning). The highest BA in the Tigers' lineup is Bobby Higginson's .252. Not surprisingly, the Mariners are up 5-1.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	615	611
Attendance	25096	26127

The Oakland-Cleveland game is turning out to be a good pitching duel. Sabathia has given up the only run of the game. Both Mulder and CC have each given up 2 hits, but one of CC's was a HR to Hernandez, who's having a terrific offensive season at catcher.

Nick Johnson has gone on the 15 day DL with a stress facture of his hand.

New York Yankees first baseman Nick Johnson will miss four-to-six weeks with a stress fracture in his right hand, the latest injury in his young career.

"It's very frustrating," Johnson said before Friday's game against the Texas Rangers. "I thought I would be back in a couple of days. That's not the case. It's going to be awhile. I'm just going to try to get it right."

Johnson said he hurt himself on a foul ball in the ninth inning Wednesday night. He then grounded out, ending a loss to the Angels.

Johnson pulled himself out of Thursday's game and had tests Friday, which showed a stress fracture in the third metacarpal bone in his right hand. He will be placed on the 15-day disabled list.

He's going to be out a while, but bones heal. If it had been a wrist injury, I'd be more worried about his coming back.

Nomar Garciaparra extended his batting streak to 17 games tonight. Through two tonight, he's 25 for 72 in the streak, .347. He had been hitting .248 before the streak; he's now raised his season average to .289.

While I thought it would be Colby Lewis giving up the walks, they've hurt Roger Clemens tonight. He's walked three, and they've all come around to score. Hank Blalock had a bases clearing double to raise his league leading BA to .373.

Aubrey Huff is having a nice season for the Devil Rays. He's driven in a run tonight with a double; that gives him 46 hits for the season, and 24 of them are for extra-bases. He's in the top 10 in both doubles and HR.

If Cleveland had a better hitting team, the pitching matchup between Mulder and Sabathia would be at the top of the list. It still should be pretty good, but the A's are clearly a superior team.

The White Sox invade the HHH Dome to take on the Twins in the battle for 2nd place in the AL Central. The White Sox have won four of their last five bring themselves back to the .500 level. And of course, the Twins are 12-4 over their last 16 games to pull within striking distance of KC.

The premier game in the NL pits central division leader Chicago against the Cardinals in St. Louis. Woody Williams goes for the home team with his perfect record and NL leading 1.84 ERA. He faces Matt Clement, who's pitched better than his 2-4 record.

Edward Cossette at Bambino's Curse suggests that for the first time, Red Sox fans are not smarter than their GM.

Are the Texas Rangers really going to send Colby Lewis out to try to prevent Roger Clemens from winning game number 299? Colby started out okay, pitching well enough in his first five starts to go 3-1. But in his last 3 starts he's gone a total of 7 2/3 innings and allowed 18 earned runs. He's walked 29 in 36 innings. He's given up 8 HR already. And he's going to be facing a team with the 2nd most walks and HR in the majors! Good luck, Colby.

My post on the Wechsler brothers brought some interesting responses. First, Jay Sokoloff shows it's a small world after all:

My eyes nearly bugged out of my sockets when I read the above entry. I am a diehard 'Spos fan. As a result, I am also a baseball junkie. In the last 6 months I discovered "newsblogs" and much to my surprise, I also stumbled across sportsblogs as well. I read your site daily.

Getting to the point, I used to play Strat-O-Matic with Mike all the time. In fact, a group of use once made a pilgrimmage to from Montreal to Cooperstown while playing Strat non-stop.

In all the blogs that I have read, this is the first time an entry has been dedicated to someone I know.

I'll continue reading your site waiting for my Wechlser updates as they happen and watch out Nos Amours (the Montreal Expos).

Dan Wechsler was less than enthused:

Pintoooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Stop it you goys!

Please be advised that you will be receiving a letter from my attorneys (Storer, Aceto & Atman, Esq, Esq & Esq) informing you that use of my likeness without my prior authorization is illegal, and that the slanderous implication that the University of Michigan is inferior to the other snotty institution is baseless.

Fortunately for me, Storer of Storer, Aceto and Allman has been my attorney for many years, and always finds against Canadians in wrestling matches. And finally, Rob Wechsler, the third underachieveing brother, feels left out.

As the other (and probably adopted) brother, I feel very slighted. Granted, I have never caught a foul ball at a baseball game, and have never been acknowledged by Jerry Remy. But I did once get hit in the face by a line drive. Also, I have a son named Remy, and he mentions me on a regular basis. Finally, I lived with both Mike and Dan for more years than I can remember. If that's not heroic, I'm not sure what is.

Rob, of course, is the middle son. Imagine a Marx brother's movie. Mike would be Chico, fast talking and mischievous; Rob would be Harpo, quiet but very funny; and Dan would be Margaret Dumont, standing around appalled by the other two. :-)

All in all, I think their mother is very proud of them. :-)

Alex Belth has a review of Moneyball over at Bronx Banter. Notice: the review contains quotes from the book that use obscenities.

I really don't like this trend in writing. I first noticed it when Tina Brown took over the New Yorker. You couldn't read an issue without seeing the F-word. It started out being in quotes from people, but has lately become (as in the passage from Moneyball) part of the prose. I find no excuse for an author using this word outside of dialog. I feel that writing is supposed to elevate language. Alex Belth calls Michael Lewis' book smart. Really smart people have a large enough vocabulary to avoid the use of obscenities.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	600	596
Attendance	24993	25981

If the majors continue at this rate, they will draw as a whole 2.4 million fewer fans this year.

A 17 inning game is like getting two for the price of one. I'm really impressed with the Cubs pitchers in this one. I love Remlinger's line; 2/3 of an inning, 2 batters faced, 2 K, 7 pitches, all strikes. The Cubs struck out 24 and walked only 4. The Cubs and Expos lead the NL with a 2.46 K per BB after this afternoon's game, but the Cubs have struck out over 100 more batters. Dusty has them throwing strikes.

Arturo Moreno has been approved by MLB to buy the Anaheim Angels. He'll become the first minority owner of a team. I like his attitude about that:

Moreno didn't attach any particular significance to his becoming the first minority owner with a controlling stake. While the Seattle Mariners' majority interest is owned by Hiroshi Yamauchi, who is Japanese, the team has been controlled by John Ellis and Howard Lincoln, who are American.

"I think we're all Americans," Moreno said. "Most of us are immigrants from someplace and we do our best to be Americans."

Yep.

Man, it's a tough day to lose in the American League. As I look at the scoreboard at this hour, 6 of the 7 games show a score difference of at least 4 runs. Three games in progress have at least a seven run lead. So far, the slugger of the day in the AL is Alfonso Soriano, 2 for 2 with a triple and a HR, a good way to be halfway to the cycle.

The aptly named Joaquin Benoit has walked five in 3.1 innings. Amazingly, he's only allowed two runs on a Nomar HR.

The Expos swept the Giants in their three game series. It's interesting because the teams had identical OBA's vs. each other (.336) and nearly identical slugging percentages (.381 Expos, .386 Giants). Yet, the Expos outscored the Giants 16-10, or two runs a game. The Giants hit better with runners in scoring position (8 for 19 vs. 6 for 20 for the Expos). However, the Expos made their scoring position hits count for more, driving in 10 runs with their 6 hits, while the Giants only managed 6 runs with their 8 hits. The Expos now have a 3.5 game lead in the wild card race.

My good friend Michael Wechsler writes:

In addition to getting Arod’s and Palmeiro’s autographs last night, as well as a ball from Johnny Pesky and picture of Avi with Buck Showalter, I caught a foul ball line drive.

I later taped the game last night. After I caught the foul ball, Jerry Remy said, “Nice catch by a fan, on the fly. Play of the game.”. They zoomed in on me but you could only see my back as I was hugging avi.

!!!!

Mike's the younger brother of one of my college roommates, Dan Wechsler. This is a picture of the evil Dan Wechsler from from the mirror universe in Star Trek. Click on the image and scroll down to read his bio.

Mike, as you can see by his resume, is clearly the more talented, having been able to get an appointment at Harvard Medical School rather than the University of Michigan. :-) As far as I know, Dan has never caught a foul ball on TV.

A classic pitching matchup tonight in LA as Greg Maddux faces Kevin Brown. Brown's been pitching well, Maddux struggled early but is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA over his last six starts.

Maddux hasn't had that much success at Dodger Stadium. He's 4-4 there with a 3.31 ERA in 12 starts (regular season). I find that surprising, since Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a great pitcher's park.

Another good pitcher's duel in Minnesota tonight. Lohse has allowed 1 ER and struck out 7 through six innings. Snyder hasn't allowed a run for KC, and has only thrown 66 pitches in the middle of the sixth inning (43 for strikes). If this score difference holds up, it will be the fourth straight 1-run decision between these teams, all won by KC.

No, not the Orwell novel. It was the year the Tigers faced the Padres in the World Series. Today, those two teams are the worst in their leagues, and the Padres are fast approaching the Tigers' level. The Padres started out 7-7, but have been miserable since 4/16, posting a 5-19 record. Their runs per game is down from 4.5 to 3.4. Their ERA is up to 5.72 from 4.36. An interesting note on the offese, they hit only 8 HR in their first 14 games, but 23 in their last 24.

You're probably a pretty good pitcher if your batting average times 10 is higher than your ERA. Jeff Suppan went two for three tonight to raise his BA to .294, and after allowing three earned runs over seven innings, his ERA stands at 2.72.

An interesting pitching duel in Philadelphia tonight. Millwood and Webb have each allowed 1 run through 6, but both have thrown over 100 pitches. Millwood has 10 K and no walks, while Webb has held the Phillies 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Millwood is out for the 7th, but I'd be surprised to see Webb pitch in the bottom of the inning.

Ichiro seems to have recovered from his April doldrums. He batted only .243 in April, but has been on fire in May. He's three for four through six innings tonight, bringing him to 18 for 42 in May, a .429 average.

John Thomson threw six good innings for Texas tonight. He only allowed 3 hits, although two of them were HR. He threw 77 pitches, 52 for strikes. Yet he was taken out after six (he did not come out for the 7th). I trust Buck Showalter's judgement, but I find that odd. His last start was only 50 pitches because he was hit hard. Maybe Buck felt that he should pull him while he was ahead.

Check out Matthew Durham's blog, The Southpaw. Scroll down for a good discussion of the Giants contracts.

The commissioner's in town. Larry Beinfest is going to have to go to the principal's office for not following the rules. Instead of having a sham interview session in which he gets to reject Willie Randolph, Beinfest just went out and hired who he wanted to be manager of the Marlins. Now, it may cost him $2,000,000 for bypassing Bud.

Please. Why waste the time of minority candidates if they aren't going to be hired? This is a mid-season firing, so you want to replace the manager quickly. I wish they had hired Randolph, instead of another failed manager. It's good that the commissioner's office is encouraging minority hiring. But Bud, you don't own the teams. You don't own baseball. You're already running the game like you ran the Brewers, and the fans aren't coming back. Maybe you should stay out of team decisions!

Or, instead of the sham interview process with fines for breaking the rules, if you really want teams to hire minorities, why not reward each team that hires a minority GM or manager $1,000,000? Put your money where your mouth is, Mr. Commissioner, and you'll see real change in the management of baseball.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	556	554
Attendance	25172	26118

Both Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey Jr. returned from the disabled list tonight after suffering dislocated shoulders. Both were out the minimum six weeks doctors expected.

Jeter is in the lineup and 0-1 so far tonight. He's batting 2nd, making Nick Johnson the best #9 hitter in the game. He'll give Soriano lots of RBI opportunities.

Griffey will not be in the starting lineup tonight, as the Reds don't want to risk further injury by rushing his return to everyday play.

After a tough week with my mom and uncle, I needed a good laugh.

My uncle's funeral was very nice. A very simple service, with his favorite hymns and people remembering him fondly. Just right.

My mom's still in the hospital. She's stable at the moment, but I wouldn't call her improving. She has new complications that will make her life more difficult. Thanks to all who have expressed their sympathy.

Craig Biggio has been playing like his old self lately. From 5/2 through 5/11, he's posted a .419 OBA. Six of his 13 hits have been for doubles, and he's scored eight runs in the nine games he's played. More importantly, the Astros are 7-2 in those games. With the power in the middle of the lineup, getting Biggio on base will give Bagwell and Kent many more RBI opportunities. He's 1 for 2 with another double tonight.

So far, Jeremy Affeldt of the Royals is pitching a fine game against the Twins. Through four innings, he's struck out five and walked none. His only mistake seems to be a HR to Torii Hunter. Mays has allowed 2 runs, but he's been wild, walking three and striking out only 1.

KC-Minnesota. Who'd a thunk?

Congratulations to Rafael Palmeiro on joining the 500 HR club.

There's a good debate between Rob Neyer and Jayson Stark about Paleiro's HOF credentials. Jayson makes the typical arguments about his stats; he's the only player to hit this many HR this many years in a row; he has the most hits over this time period, etc. Neyer argue that while he has great stats, he's never been a dominant player, even among players at his position. I don't think Rob's argument will carry the day, but I think it's an important argument to make. In an era of inflated batting stats, writers need to rethink what is a Hall of Famer.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	549	545
Attendance	25234	26115

The Marlins fired Jeff Torborg Saturday. This is the first time I remember a manager being fired for overworking pitchers:

General manager Larry Beinfest made the changes after the Marlins lost for the seventh time in eight games Saturday. He said the team has performed below expectations, and he didn't discount the way Torborg and Arnsberg handled an injury-plagued pitching staff as a factor.

"This is a better team than we've played,'' Beinfest said. "The fans here in South Florida deserve to have hope this summer. There is enough time left to turn it around and get back in it.''

While Torborg took the news with typical grace, Arnsberg became angry when told he was fired. Beinfest said he and owner Jeffrey Loria went to the pitching coach's apartment late Saturday to inform him.

Arnsberg said the meeting lasted 90 seconds but declined to say what he told Loria and Beinfest.

"He was abusive and clearly unprofessional,'' Beinfest said. "I would say he was bordering on violent.''

I hope this marks a new era, where all are finally convinced that you have to take care with young pitchers, or they won't be good pitchers for very long.

As for his replacement, I've never been impressed with Jack McKeon. At least (I assume), he won't be overworking anyone.

On May 1st, in an article about the importance of April, Jayson Stark wrote the following:

The Diamondbacks and Twins don't want to believe they've already dug a hole they can't climb out of. But history tells us that hole is deeper than they think.

What history tells us, more powerfully than a Kerry Wood fastball, is that April matters.

Now, I agree with that 100%. Plenty of pennants are won in April. Some are even lost. But the Twins in a deep hole? No one told the Twins that. Since April 29:

Twins	April 29, On
Record	9-1
Runs per Game	6.8
ERA	3.48

Now, they are 6-0 vs. Tampa Bay in that time, but they are also 3-1 vs. Boston, including a win (and their only loss) vs. Pedro. Suddenly, they are 1 1/2 games out of first place, and the hole has been mostly filled in.

I guess Curt Schilling appendix surgery has healed. A complete game four hit shutout. No walks, 10 K, and he did it with only 105 pitches. With one double play, Schilling only faced three over the minimum. The DBacks are 8-5 over their last 13 games.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	505	502
Attendance	25043	26071

It's interesting, attendance has been good at the low temperatures. It looks like the temperate games in the 60's have not been drawing the fans. I'm sure I'll be looking more deeply at this subject when I have more time. Ivan Baxter was wondering if cold weather had anything to do with the poor attendance. Over the same period last year, the average temperature was 64 degrees. This year, it's 63 degrees, so it is a little colder. However, if you look at the distribution of temperatures of individual games:

Temperature Range	# Games, 2002	#Games, 2003
30's and 40's	50	64
50's and 60's	239	229
70's+	216	215

There have been a lot more game when the starting temp was in the 30's (21 in 2003 vs. 3 in 2002). I'm not sure this is enough to make all the difference, but it probably has some effect. Of course, we can measure attendance by temperature this year and last:

Temperature Range	Avg. Attendance, 2002	Avg. Attendance, 2003
30's	27,211	27,669
40's	26,884	24,424
50's	28,806	27,860
60's	29,532	27,777
70's	23,082	22,319
80's+	20,198	20,283

Edward Cossette doesn't think so, and he makes a great argument.

I've always thought that scoring a game makes it much more interesting. You really get an idea of the flow of the game, and if you do it enough for a team, you really learn how the team operates. Eventually, you get into the heads of the players and managers; you become part of the game.

Thanks to all who have expressed sympathy for my mom. She appears to be doing better today. Unfortunately, my uncle passed away yesterday after a long illness. Between the two, blogging will remain very light. Thanks for understanding.

Update: Remember to visit all the fine baseball bloggers. The blog roll is on the right. Scroll down and take a peek.

Colorado at Atlanta pits my current NL Cy Young pick, Shawn Chacon vs. former Giant Russ Ortiz. Chacon is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and has only allowed 1 HR in 39 2/3 innings. He's facing Russ Ortiz, who's 7-3 with a 3.47 ERA career against Colorado.

Mussina extended his record to 7-0 last night. He pitched brilliantly, striking out 12 in eight innings and only allowing five hits and no walks. I found this paragraph in the ESPN game summary interesting:

Mussina snapped Seattle's four-game winning streak and became the first Yankees pitcher since Bob Turley in 1958 to win his first seven starts in a season. Mussina beat the Mariners for the fourth straight time, including once last week in New York.

Bob Turley is one of those pitchers whose record makes you think he's better than he was. The Yankees seemed to stock their staff with guys like this in the 1950's. He walked a ton of batters and struck out about as many. (Career, 1068 walks, 1265 K). However, in his best seasons he didn't give up many hits, and Casey Stengel had a philosophy that it's okay to give up a walk as long as you get ground ball double plays. Casey always made sure he had excellent defense in the middle of the diamond, so the walks hurt his teams a lot less than hits would. (Pick up Bill James' book The Managers sometime to learn more about this.) Andy Pettitte would be a perfect Stengel pitcher.

Loaiza did not pitch brilliantly, but he pitched darn well. Most managers will take allowing 2 runs over six innings. Loaiza is now 6-1; the rest of the Chicago starting staff is 7-12.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	494	490
Attendance	25125	26232

A few posts before I go back to the hospital. I found a new professional blog on the Mariners. The Seattle PI is publishing a blog written by Shannon Fears. Baseball Musings gets a nice mention here.

My mom is in the hospital. Depending on how she does, blogging will probably be light over the next few days.

The Red Sox have scored a run to lead KC 1-0 in the second, and don't have a hit yet. Ramirez walked to start the 2nd, advanced on a ground out, stole third and scored on a sac fly. Little ball being played well by a slugger.

An update on this post, Jeff Bennett at ESPN tells me that it's the first 2 triple, 2 HR game since Willie Mays did it on May 13, 1958 at the LA Coliseum vs. the Dodgers. The Coliseum strikes me as the kind of park where this could happen, with the funny shape it presented for baseball.

So Young does it almost 45 years to the day after the Say Hey Kid. I guess when he retires, Young can use this to campaign for the Hall of Fame. :-)

Once again, the best pitchingmatchups are on the West Coast. Early Cy Young candidates Estaban Loaiza and Mike Mussina take on the Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners respectively. Loaiza has only allowed 1 earned run on the road this year in 16.1 IP. Both are striking out a lot of batters, not walking anyone, and not allowing HR.

If you can't stay up late, check out the Giants at the Marlins. Moss pits his 2.21 ERA vs. Beckett's 3.63. The two teams are very close offensively, with the Giants picking up the edge in getting on base (.345 Giants, .330 Marlins).

There were 19 runs scored in the NY-Seattle game last night (Seattle won 12-7), but no HR. Since 1987, there have been 25 such games with at least 19 runs and no HR.

By the way, Giambi went 1 for 5 last night. It's bad when you go 1 for 5 and raise your BA.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	480	475
Attendance	25208	26373

The bottom of the Toronto lineup (7-9 hitters) have had a great night. They're six for 10 after five innings with five runs scored and eight RBI. They have two HR and three doubles.

As an aside, I once wrote up a graphic for Baseball Tonight with the title "Bottoms Up." Unfortunately, the sub title was "Best 6-9 hitters." Needless to say, I changed the title. :-)

Barry Larkin just hit a pinch-hit two-run HR to win the game for the Reds. That's two games in a row that the Reds win on walk off HRs.

Seven runs so far tonight for the Tigers. They should be crusing after Mike Maroth turned in a solid start (7 IP, 3 ER), but the bullpen and defense allowed 3 unearned runs to let the Orioles tie the game at six. But Dmitri Young is 5 for 5 with 5 RBI, the last coming on a triple to break the tie in the top of the ninth. He has a single, two triples and two HR. I would think two HR and two triples in the same game is pretty unusual.

Update: I just checked the day by days back to 1974, and no one in that time period has 2 triples and 2 HR in the same game.

Update: Tigers just won 7-6, to make it three in a row. The Orioles have to be a bit embarassed by this.

Update: Willie Mays was the last to have two doubles and two triples in a game.

Quick quiz. Entering today, three teams have four players with 20 RBI. Can you name them?

Alex Belth at Bronx Banter has the first part of his Rob Neyer interview up.

Mike Vaccaro in the New York Post wants Rey Sanchez cut over a hair cut:

Sanchez, in the loudest possible voice, has now given Art Howe, Steve Phillips and the Waste Management firm of Wilpon & Wilpon an opportunity to prove they really do understand what is needed to turn the surreal circus that circulates around their clubhouse into something resembling a professional organization.

By cutting Rey Sanchez.

Now. Immediately. Today.

You think that's too over-the-top a punishment for Sanchez getting a little off the top in the clubhouse during a game while his team was getting pounded? You're crazy. Sanchez may not be the ace of diamonds in Mets' fans personal deck of most-wanted playing cards, but at this point he is clearly the face - or the sideburns, bangs, and neatly parted hair - of this buffoonish cartoon strip of a club.

Howe, in a statement, assured Mets Nation that, "the situation will be assessed and adreessed." In Howe-speak, this means he will spend much of today hiding under his desk, smiling absently for his players, handing out empty quotes and doing absolutely nothing before managing nine more innings of perfectly milquetoast baseball.

I want Art Howe to prove me wrong on this.

Mets fans are begging Howe, and Phillips, and the Wilpons, to prove them wrong, too. Sanchez has made it easy for all of them. Ditch him now. Pay off the rest of his contract, and chalk it up as punitive damages for ever allowing his sneering, sniggering presence into a clubhouse that clearly welcomes sneering, sniggering presences the way a haunted house greets a ghost.

Maybe they should cut him because his OPS is .418. He makes Rey Ordonez look like a slugger. I'd say, "Let's find out if Jose Reyes can play," but I think the Mets need to clean up their act first. There is a serious lack of leadership at all levels of the Mets organization that needs to be addressed. The more I read about Phillips and Howe, the more I'm convinced that they are not up to the job. And there doesn't seem to be a lot of leadership among the players to fill that vaccum. Will Wilpon celan house? Or will he just pon?

Darren at Baseball Primer has a link to an article about Craig Marquardo, a man who wanted to bring major league baseball to Portland. Seems his resume didn't check out.

Reminds me of a line from Guys and Dolls about getting cider in your ear.

The Yankees travel to Seattle, and we get a rematch of last Wednesday's battle of the lefties as Pettitte faces Moyer. Pettitte got the best of the last meeting, going 7 innings and allowing one unearned run. They've been pretty evenly matched over time. In six starts head-to-head, Pettitte is 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA, Moyer 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA.

The Yankees have been traveling a lot lately. They went from NY to Minnesota to Anaheim to Texas to NY to Seattle, all big trips. I bet they're not very happy with the schedule maker right now. Still, they are 11-5 over that time frame.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	465	460
Attendance	25323	26545

I saw this list in my daily STATS, Inc. newsletter today.

Most outs this year

Carl Crawford         111
Vernon Wells          110
Juan Pierre           110
Miguel Tejada         109
Nomar Garciaparra     106
Pat Burrell           105
Shannon Stewart       104
Jimmy Rollins         103
Juan Encarnacion      102
Johnny Damon          100
Alex Sanchez          100

It's an interesting list. At lot of leadoff types who don't have great OBA's (Johnny Damon), or leadoff men who play every day (Shannon Stewart). The outs they consume contract the offense for the rest of the team; they're taking AB away from Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome and Carlos Delgado.

The University of Tennessee-Knoxville and Southern Illinois University-Carbondale are conducting a survey of blog readers. I particpated in the survey through Instapundit. If you haven't already, please fill out the survey here.

Well the Benson-Miller matchup didn't work out the way you might expect looking at their ERAs. Benson gave up 6 runs in 2.1 IP and left the game. Meanwhile, Miller is perfect through five. He throwing strikes (43 of 61 pitches, 70.4%). If you have the cable or satellite baseball package, tune in.

Update: Pokey Reese lines one through the infield after Kent makes a great play to keep the perfecto alive. Miller retires 16 straight batters before the first hit.

Derek Lowe has given up two HR tonight to bring his season total to five. He allowed 12 all last year. The Royals are now third in the AL in team HR.

The Tigers are up 5-1 in the 8th. If they can hold on, they'll have their first two game winning streak of the season. More importantly, they will have scored 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games.

In my previous post, I said that I disagreed with this statement by Rob Neyer:

The less-mentioned reason is that few players can both hit many home runs and steal many bases.

Now, I don't disagree with it on a factual basis. Through the end of the 2002 season, only 176 players had had 100 HR and 100 SB. Only 33 were 200-200. But the skills are not mutually exclusive.

I believe that it is a mistake to equate SB with speed. There have been fast runners who were poor basestealers. Brett Bulter, who was great at beating out infield grounders and drag bunts, was not a great basestealer. His career SB% was only 68.5%, barely over break even. Bernie Williams is clearly a fast player, but he's even worse, having been thrown out 80 times in 220 attempts, 63.6%

My point is that stolen bases have as much to do with timing as with speed. Look at Mickey Mantle. Mickey rates 20th in all-time SB% at 80.1%. He was only caught 38 times in 191 attempts. And he had bad knees his entire career. George Brett had some great precentage years stealing bases (although not for his career). George knew when to run and when not to run.

My point is, you can be strong enough, fast enough and smart enough to both hit for power and swipe bases successfully. Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar and Joe Morgan all combined both talents. Soriano is doing it now. It can be done.

There's also one point I believe Neyer's article missed. At some point, teams decided they didn't want to allow stolen bases. They had pitchers develop slide steps and make more throws to keep batters close at first. So the players who need that extra 1/2 second to get to second no longer have it.

But it will all change once again. At some point, pitching will get ahead of hitting, and scores will go down. When that happens, when each run becomes more precious, you'll see the SB return. And we'll be complaining that no one hits 60 HR anymore. :-)

I don't have time to comment now, but Rob Neyer has a good column on the relationship between HR and stolen bases. I want to disagree with him on the statement:

The less-mentioned reason is that few players can both hit many home runs and steal many bases.

I need more time to prepare my argument, and I won't have that until later tonight.

Three interesting pitching matchups tonight. Detroit visits Baltimore as Cornejo faces the undefeated Jason Johnson. Both have ERAs below 3.00, and Johnson is undefeated. We'll see if Detroit can continue its offensive resurgence.

The late game has two hurlers who have pitched better than their records, Padilla and Batista. The Phillies are 4-3 on this road trip, but have only been averaging 3 runs per game.

Finally, what should be a good matchup in Houston pits Pittsburgh's Benson vs. Wade Miller of the Astros. Miller has strugguled this year (0-3, 6.07 ERA) . He's been wild, walking 17 in 29.2 IP, and when he pitches over the plate he's getting hit. Benson, meawhile, is 3-1 on the road with a 2.05 ERA.

Through games of May 4th, 2003.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	459	453
Attendance	25345	26627

Brad Lidge picked up his third win of the season in relief for the Houston Astros. Lidge gives them another strikeout artist in the bullpen. He's now struck out 21 in 19.2 IP this year, and 32 in 28.1 IP for his short career.

If you were told John Thomson would pitch eight innings and give up three runs, I bet you'd think the Rangers would win that game. Unfortunately for Thomson, he ran into C.C. Sabathia today, who allowed only one run over eight innings. The Indians right now are depending on Ellis Burks for their offense. He was two for four with a run scored and an RBI, and is the only good hitter in the Cleveland lineup now that Milton Bradley is on the DL.

The Tigers set a season high in runs today with 7. Combined with their six runs yesterday, they have scored more runs in the last two games than in their previous 5. They now have raised their runs per game to 2.55.

As promised (click on pictures for a larger image):

In today's Reds Notebook, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer points out that the Reds offense is very young:

With Barry Larkin and Ken Griffey Jr. out, the Reds have been using the second-youngest starting eight in the majors.

The average age of Sean Casey, Ryan Freel, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Boone, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Jose Guillen and Jason LaRue is 26.3 years.

Only the Detroit Tigers, at 25.9, have a younger lineup.

The Giants have the oldest at 33.4.

I like to measure offensive age with a weighted average based on plate appearance by non-pitchers. Someone who's old and plays half time should not count as much as someone who's old and playing all the time. By this measure, the Reds actually have the youngest offense in the majors:

Offense	Weighted Age
Reds	27.4
Twins	27.5
Expos	27.9
Devil Rays	27.9
Tigers	28.2

And in case you are interested, here are the oldest teams:

Offense	Weighted Age
Giants	33.1
Diamondbacks	32.6
Astros	32.5
Mariners	32.5
Mets	32.1

Only the Mariners and Reds from these two lists are in the top five in their respective leagues in runs scored per game, and both are fifth.

Sam Ross Jr. of the Pittsburgh Tribune looks at why the Pirates are so good on the road and so bad at home. His answer is a lack of lefties on the Pirates:

Manager Lloyd McClendon has made much during his tenure about the desirability of left-handed pitchers at PNC Park, to negate left-handed hitters in a ballpark with an inviting right-field porch. Conversely, left field is unusually expansive for right-handed pull hitters.

Last season, the Pirates got 25 starts from lefty Jimmy Anderson, nine from Dave Williams, eight from Joe Beimel and seven from Ron Villone. Although all four had losing records, they kept getting chances, arguably because it was thought left-handers were important.

Now, Anderson and Villone are gone. Beimel is in the bullpen, and Williams continues his comeback from shoulder surgery.

Also, owing to the PNC Park configuration, left-handed power hitting is critical. Having Brian Giles off to a slow start, and then sidelined with a knee injury, has stripped the Pirates lineup of its main left-handed threat.

It's a good theory. Jones is a bit negative about all this; however, if a team is doing well on the road, that's a very good sign.

Murray Chass covers four interesting topics in his Inside Baseball column in the NY Times today. The first is the Astros and Julio Lugo. The Astros have designated him for assignment after he was charged with domestic violence.

The decision to jettison the 27-year-old Lugo, a Brooklyn resident who was in his fourth season with the Astros, was not wholly a result of the alleged assault of his wife, Mabel, Hunsicker said. But barely three hours before the Astros made the move, they issued a statement on domestic violence without mentioning Lugo.

"The Astros organization is acutely aware of the issues surrounding domestic violence, and we completely support the steps necessary to deal with it," the statement said. "We disapprove of any violence; it is unacceptable. We are a family game with family values. The Astros family represents honesty, integrity and family values. We have no tolerance or acceptance for anything outside those values."

Lugo, of course, has not been convicted of punching his wife in the face and slamming her head against a car, as she has alleged. (The couple are said to be divorcing.) "He's been arraigned, tried and convicted in the last 24 hours," a lawyer who represents players said.

But the Astros linked Lugo's dismissal to their problems on the field, which have been considerable for a team some picked to win the division.

Lugo, it might be noted, has a higher OBA than Craig Biggio, who has been a disaster in the leadoff spot (.338 for Lugo, .311 for Biggio). I'm pretty sure that Biggio is washed up. His numbers are worse than they actually look, due to the effect of "The Park Formerly Know as Enron."

Biggio, 2002-2003	Home	Away
Batting Average	.274	.229
On Base Average	.346	.306
Batting Average	.429	.382

Biggio is a class act, and I don't expect the Astros to just release him. I do, however, expect him to pull a Mike Schmidt and realize that he's just not being a productive ballplayer and leave the game.

Next, with attendance down, baseball does what it does so well; go into hiding:

The early-season attendance is down for the second successive season, plummeting 14.4 percent over two seasons. This year's drop was 4.95 percent.

Officials have apparently become sensitive to the decline. Missing from the daily major league attendance report available to the news media are figures from last season.

Fortunately, there are other sources.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	444	438
Attendance	25198	26416

I'll try to make this a daily feature.

And once again, MLB is talking about expanding the playoffs. Of course, that means they'll have to move the World Series to a neutral site where they can be sure of warm weather, or they can start the season on St. Patrick's Day and hope global warming is for real.

Finally, looks at why Frank Robinson returned to the Expos:

Once it was determined that the Expos would stay alive, Robinson returned for two reasons.

"No. 1 they asked me to come back," he said. "The second thing is I thought about it and thought I'd like to come back. The way the players played last year, the attitude and the effort they gave me and what we were successful in doing, having a winning season for the first time since '96 and finishing in second place, just the work habits and the enthusiasm, I felt something special was going to happen here and I wanted to be a part of it. This job was only half-finished last year. This club is going to be in existence for a few years to come. I just wanted to be part of it this year."

Gaelan Murphy is not a Skip Caray fan:

I have to say that I'm surprised by all the people who seem to miss Skip Carey broadcasting TBS games. I have long thought that the Braves broadcasts on TBS were the worst in baseball. While the guys they have on now aren't any better they certainly aren't any worse. I agree that having good broadcasters is essential to enjoying baseball on TV. I disagree that Skip Carey is a good broadcaster. I have nothing against him personally but I hope I never hear from him again.

I happen to like the Braves broadcasts. I think they do a very professional job, and I think Caray has exactly the right balance of calm and excitement.

And by the way, have you noticed that the Braves are in first place? It's amazing how they always seem to be there.

Don't you hate it when the guy you release at the end of spring training gets a pinch hit triple in the 10th to beat you and send you record to 3-25? I bet Dave Dombrowski does.

Van Poppel wasn't stellar in his season debut, but he could have been worse. He was wild early, walking the first two batters, but that was it. He threw a lot of pitches (74) for four innings. He probably earned a chance for another start.

Pedro pitched about as well as someone can pitch today. A complete game five hitter, twelve strikeouts, no walks. If the bullpen doesn't get it's act together, they are going to have to get more of these efficient complete games out of Martinez.

David Bergner comments on the Skip Caray situation:

I just wanted to comment on your latest postings about Skip Carey using the Steve Stone analogy. When I was growing up I was a Cincinnati Reds fan (still am), but I loved to listen to Chicago Cubs games on WGN simply because Steve Stone was the color man. I would always root for the Cubs to win unless they were playing for Cincinnati just because I liked Steve Stone so much and felt that I learned a tremendous amount of baseball from him. When Stone left, I didn't stop watching Cubs games on WGN, but I didn't watch them as much and I found myself not enjoying the games as much. Now that Steve Stone is back, I tune in to as many Cubs games as I possibly can just to hear him comment on the games. He is simply a great announcer in my opinion.

For me personally, I think the same can be said of Skip Carey. Skip was the Braves announcer on WTBS when I was growing up as well and I always remember tuning into games to hear Skip's voice. Skip was a little different than Steve Stone for me because I very much looked forward to Steve Stone because I always felt like there was a facet of the game that I wouldn't have known about if not for Stone pointing it out. With Carey, it was just the sound of his voice that just felt like you were at home. That feeling is gone this year as TBS pulled Carey from the booth.

I'm only 26 years old, but I really feel that Steve Stone and Skip Carey have been major contributors of my love for baseball. Maybe they aren't as good, but for guys like me, Stone and Carey are our versions of Vin Scully and we need those guys. I had to quit playing baseball after a year in the independant leagues, and with all the seemingly wrong things with baseball that the media portrays, Stone and Carey always remind what is beautiful and grandiose about baseball. There just isn't anything like baseball, and I'm confident that Stone and Carey have imprinted that view on the hearts of millions of young men out there.

Let's hope that TBS does the right thing the way WGN did with Stone, and bring Skip Carey back.

I do want to mention that there is another guy who, like Stone and Carey, is heading for broadcast greatness, and that man is Jeff Brantley. I tape all of the ESPN afternoon games that Brantley does simply because the games are an educational experience. There is nobody better in baseball broadcasting than Jeff Brantley.

A good announcer really adds to the enjoyment of the game. I haven't heard Brantley yet, but I'll look for his next broadcast.

I'm home, and had a great time. Great ballpark; easy to get to, lots of different food. I had a Boog Powell pork sandwich, crab cakes and a hot dog. Sir Sidney Ponson pitched very well. Runelvys Hernandez was complaining to the umpire that he was being squeezed in the strike zone, and from my vantage point I have to agree. I'll have more tomorrow with pictures.

Texas as Cleveland. The Rangers continue to retool their rotation with Todd Van Poppel making his first start since 2000. I remember when the A's thought they had scored a major coup with that draft pick.

I'm off to Baltimore! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOG!

The Cardinals offense continues to roll. The 3-7 hitters in tonight's lineup are all slugging over .500, and they are a combined 7 for 15 tonight.

Looks like the Mets found someone they can beat, former Met Glendon Rusch. Ty Wigginton has had the big night, getting three hits, two doubles and two RBI. Mo Vaughn is 0 for 3 and is now hitting .190, 185 points below his weight.

The Red Sox, down 5-0 in the 7th, score six runs in the bottom of the inning to take a one-run lead. After Tolar gets the first out, Mendoza and Embree have been lit up. Neither has gotten an out so far, and Twins have taken back the lead and then some. It's 10-6, and the Twins are still batting in the 8th. On top of the bad pitching, the Sox defense is being very sloppy, letting runners take extra bases.

Florida's Alex Gonzalez is 2 for 2 tonight with his 7th HR of the season. He's batting .340 and slugging .660. This is a huge jump in offense for him. I doubt it will hold up, unless Alex at age 26 has finally matured. His career average is .245 and his career slugging is .386 coming into tonight.

Joe Kennedy just pitched the first 1-hitter in DRays history. Detroit has now been shutout 7 times this year. The Tigers have now been shutout in 7 or their 27 games, 26%. The highest percentage since 1987 was by the 1995 Cardinals, who were shutout 19 times in 143 games, 13%.

I'm amazed to look at Ichiro's BA in tonight's boxscore and see it at .254. What's going on? Larry Stone discusses Ichiro's problems in today's Seattle Times.

And yet there is evidence that the league thinks it has found a way to attack Ichiro. One scout said the key is to throw tight, make him feel uncomfortable at the plate and move his feet.

Meanwhile, opposing defenses have been able to cheat in toward the plate, making it harder for him to beat out balls. The antidote, of course, is to make them pay by driving the ball past them, but he hasn't been doing that like before.

Melvin wouldn't address any particular strategy that has worked against Ichiro, but he did agree that teams may feel they have discovered a vulnerability in his game and are attacking him in similar ways.

"Yeah, and he sees it too," Melvin said. "It's not like he doesn't see it. A guy like him, he's an aggressive hitter and also a bad-ball hitter. It doesn't necessarily have to be a strike. But then it comes to a point, how bad a ball?

I always worry about bad-ball hitters being exploited. Opponents never were able to do it to Kirby Puckett, but Ichiro will swing at anything. He has to learn to wait for his pitch, or this poor performance will continue.

Looking at Cory Lidle's stats for the year, his ERA seems high to me. Turns out, he's great until he gets a man on base, and then he falls apart. Coming into today, with none on, the opposition is batting just .213. But with men on, opponents are batting .356. Tonight, he's had only 1 AB with men in scoring position, and the Angels did not get a hit. He's pitching like the Oakland Lidle tonight.

Joaquin Benoit is pitching a fine game for the Texas Rangers in his first appearance of the year. He's given up 2 hits and struck out 6 through 5. In his past two seasons, he's been a typically bad Texas pitcher. He's 25, so maybe he's finally come of age. Texas needs someone who can pitch like this.

Wells and Lilly each have perfect first innings in the A's-Yankees game. Wells got the side on nine pitches in the first, while Lilly used 16 and came back from a 3-0 count on Giambi to strike him out.

Jim Kaat pointed out that Lilly's front foot is coming straight at home plate this year. Last year, he had a tendancy to move that foot toward first base.

Andres Torres has the only hit for the Tigers tonight, leading off the game. He was just up for the third time tonight in the bottom of the 6th. He smashes one to Truby at third, and it goes right through his legs. Torres, hustling, tries for second and gets thrown out. This team can't buy a break.

Meanwhile, Joe Kennedy and Gary Knotts are locked in a scoreless pitchers duel. Kennedy has allowed 1 hit and 0 walks through 6, Knotts 2 hits and 1 walk. Both have pitch counts in the 70's and are throwing strikes.

It's 1-0 Twins in the Twins-Red Sox game. There has not been an extra-base hit, although the Red Sox have had 8 batters reach by a single, walk or error so far, and 9 AB with runners in scoring position. The only hit they've gotten in that situation, however, was an infield single be Johnny Damon that only advance the runner to third. Meanwhile, the Twins are 1 for 2 in that situation, giving them the game's only run.

As promised (click on pictures for a larger image):

This is the plaza in front of Fenway Park on Yawkey Way. You can eat and congregate, and since you've already passed in your ticket, there's no crush going into the stadium.

One of the attractions was a bat maker from Rawlings. You could order a bat to your specifications. The bat in the foreground is a Jason Varitek model.

The new Wall Seats at Fenway. Unfortunately, the seats and advertising obscure the Citgo Sign.

I believe this person worked for one of the broadcasters. She's calibrating the radar gun with a tuning fork. I didn't know that's how they did it!

The pre-game home plate meeting. I'm surprised Pena didn't come out. He was a favorite at Fenway.

Tim Wakefield delivers the first pitch of the game to Michael Tucker.

Shea "Stadium" Hillenbrand on deck. It had gotten dark, and I took this without a flash. Comes out much better that way.

The victorious Red Sox leave the field

Hee Seop Choi just doubled and scored the Cubs first run of the day. After the double, he's batting .250. It's interesting to compare him to the highly touted Matsui:

2003 Stats, through 4 PM EDT, 5/2	Choi	Matsui
Batting Average	.250	.254
On Base Average	.438	.317
Slugging Average	.567	.360

Despite the higher BA, Matsui is not producing. Choi has more hits than walks, but when he does get hits, they are for extra bases (9 of 15 hits for extra bases). Get on and hit for power. At the moment, Choi is the import of the year.

I just noticed that the probable pitcher for KC tomorrow is Runelvys Hernandez. I'll be at the game tomorrow (Section 30, Row ZZ, Seat 12) if anyone would like to come by and say hello.

The leading candidate for the NL Cy Young award, Shawn Chacon, brings his 1.04 ERA to Wrigley field this afternoon. He has that ERA despite making four of his five starts in Coors Field.

Tonight, the battle of the lefties as Ted Lilly returns to Yankee Stadium and faces his old team for the first time. Lilly has kept his walks down so far this year, although he still gives up the occasional HR. Wells, of course, has only walked one batter all year. Both offenses, by the way, are in the top five in the AL in walks, so it will be a test of control for both pitchers.

Andrew Godfrey points out what a great series Juan Gonzalez had in Toronto. He was 7 for 14 with five HR and 10 RBI. He's never had particularly good numbers in Toronto. Maybe he got more rest than usual trying to avoid SARS. :-)

One way to be a good team is to be really good on one side of the ball (pitching or offense), and at least average on the other. That's what the Expos are doing this year. The Rangers are near the top of the league in runs scored, but much closer to the bottom in terms of runs allowed. The Expos are at the top in terms of ERA, and in the middle of the pack in runs scored. The Rangers don't need to lower their ERA much to be a winning team. But they need to find those average pitchers.

The MLBPA has approved a two-year trial in which the league winning the All Star game gets home field in the World Series. I agree with Kevin Brown:

"I disagree with it, completely and totally," said Los Angeles pitcher Kevin Brown a five-time All-Star. "I think it just takes away from the whole idea of what the All-Star game is about, which is letting the fans vote and letting it be an exhibition game. Now they're trying to make it into something that it never has been."

Once again, Bud Selig has gone for an easy solution, rather than a creative one, to solve a problem that is in fact rare. I still think a better solution to the All Star game tie problem is to pay a big bonus to the players on the winning team, and no money at all for the loser or a tie.

Steve Amamoto writes concerning my post about Yorvit Torrealba:

I think there is a need to better define what is meant by a catcher's defense. By relating it to catcher's ERA I think you are mixing up defense and pitch selection/working with the pitchers. I think of catcher's defense as comprising things like blocking pitches in the dirt, ability to control the opponent's running game, handling plays at the plate and maybe ability to receive pitches to help get calls. Catcher's ERA is more related to pitch selection and working with the pitchers.

For the Giants, Santiago is far more experienced at calling a game and he is still pretty good at throwing out baserunners. But I think Benito gets a little lazy at times when it comes to moving his body to block errant pitches.Yorvit Torrealba is still a young catcher. He has looked better at the plate than expected, but is nowhere near the offensive player that Santiago is. I haven't looked up the stats, but you also need to look at which pitchers the catcher is working with. In 2002 Torrealba got a lot of his starts catching another rookie, Ryan Jensen. Jensen got a surprising number of wins (13), but he has very average stuff and proved to be very hittable (1.45 WHIP, 4.51 ERA).

 
2002 stats 
                  Ins.   PB      CS%        CERA 
Santiago       1066.2     7    .301        3.48
Torrealba       363.2     0    .282        3.74

Catcher's defense encompasses many things. Ivan Rodriguez has a great arm, but he's not known as a catcher who calls a good game. If you shut down the running game, but your pitch calling causes a lot of baserunners to reach base, you haven't done your job. You can't pick one part of the catcher's game and say he's a good defensive catcher. You have to look at the totality.

MLB TV is free today through the 4th. I'm watching the Mets-Cardinals right now. You need a 350 K broadband connection. You can sign up at MLB.com.

Looks like the best pitching matchup of the day is on the west coast, with Prior of the Cubs facing Moss of the Giants. Both have four wins and low ERAs. Moss walks more batters than he strikes out, but has been nearly unhittable with runners in scoring position. Prior strikes out more than 1 an inning, and hasn't allowed a HR all year (the Giants are 4th in the NL in HR hit). He's pitched the most inning in the NL this year without allowing a HR (37).

Mike Mussina tries to go 6-0 tonight against Seattle. This game is also interesting regarding the Yankees heart of the order. The #3 and #5 hitters for the Yankees this year are each slugging under .400 (mostly Giambi and Matsui). The 6-7-8 slots are providing most of the power. This is good and bad. It's good that the bottom of the order is playing so well, but it's bad when your best hitter (Giambi) is not producing and when your big import is not hitting for power. My guess is, however, that eventually the tables will turn, and the heart of the order will have it's month carrying the team.

Finally, keep your eye on the Mets at St. Louis to see if the Cardinals can score 13 runs in a game three times in a row.