The Red Sox, and it appears every other team, said no to Barry Bonds.

Matt Snyder makes the case for the Giants signing Barry Bonds:

The NL West looks like a relatively wide-open division entering 2009. The Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez to solidify the middle of their batting order Wednesday. The Giants have a decent lineup, but lack a power presence in the middle. Barry Bonds still wants to play baseball, and considering how little interest he's netted the past two years, he'd probably sign a relatively cheap contract.

Considering all the above factors, and also considering how beloved Bonds was in San Francisco despite his many shortcomings as a man, the Giants should sign him to bat in the middle of their order this season. There, I said it.

I agree. The Bonds vs. Manny battles will be the greatest show since King Kong vs. Godzilla.

Manny Ramirez is just a physical away from signing with the Dodgers, according to ESPN:

Ramirez and the Dodgers have agreed in principle on a two-year, $45 million contract, pending a physical.

The outfielder, his agents Scott Boras and Mike Fiore, and Dodgers owner Frank McCourt and general manager Ned Colletti met in Los Angeles to finalize the deal.

The deal was struck just three days after another failed attempt to get a deal done -- which grew out of how much money would be deferred -- with a frustrated McCourt telling reporters that any negotiations from that point forward would "start from scratch."

So the Dodgers got what they wanted. It's a short term deal that gives Manny an incentive to play well this season, the chance to become a free agent again next year. Manny saw how his attitude with the Red Sox kept teams away from signing him. Maybe he can rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the other teams with a good season for the Dodgers.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Nomar Garciaparra decided to continue playing baseball, this time with the Athletics:

Opting against retirement, Garciaparra is on the verge of signing a one-year deal with the A's, according to major-league sources.

The deal, expected to be between $1.5 and $2 million guaranteed, will be subject to Garciaparra passing a physical.

...

Garciaparra, 35, will serve as a right-handed alternative to Eric Chavez at third base, Daric Barton or Jason Giambi at first and Giambi or Jack Cust at designated hitter.

Nomar hasn't played a full season since 2003. His place is as a backup, and his bat is still good enough for him to fill that role well.

Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

With the delay in his trial, Barry Bonds told his agent to look for work. Davey Johnson should invite Barry to join team USA for the World Baseball Classic. The stringent drug testing there should work in Barry's favor, and if he shows he can hit, maybe someone will hire him.

The Oakland Athletics just signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year contract:

The signing of Cabrera means Bobby Crosby will either be traded or become a $5.25 million utilityman. It is unclear what effect the move will have on Nomar Garciaparra, who was choosing between the A's and retirement, according to a major-league source.

Cabrera was a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration by the White Sox. Chicago will get Oakland's second-round draft pick, plus a supplemental pick between the first and second round.

That's quite a drop in salary for Cabrera, who made $10 million in 2008. Despite his age, Cabrera's posted OBAs better than his career average the last three seasons. That doesn't make him a great offensive player, but he won't pull the offense down like Bobby Crosby did the last three years. I'm guessing the Athletics will probably end up eating most of Bobby's contract, whether he's traded or not.

Orlando also gives the Athletics better range at shortstop than Crosby.

Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras offered the Dodgers a compromise on the deferred money:

"Our most recent offer Saturday morning covered two years with some deferred compensation ($43.5m net present value). Manny directed me to compromise between the Dodgers' last offer of $42 million net present value ($45 million with deferred compensation) and our $45 million without deferred money. However, we have yet to hear from them on our last three offers."

Via Dodger Thoughts, who adds:

Though they have made some public relations mistakes along the way, the Dodgers have proven they were right not to make an exorbitant offer back in November, right to make some concessions as the offseason passed and right to stand their ground when they needed to.

How much more right do the Dodgers need to be? It's time to lock it down.

If any other team wants Manny, now is the time to swoop in while the Dodgers decide how right they want to be. My guess is that Manny will be in a Dodger uniform very soon. Ramirez blinked, and that's all Los Angeles should need.

Jon Weisman suggests the Dodgers negotiations with Manny Ramirez stalled over more than deferred money:

In any case, I think that the media's and the fans' continued focus on the deferred money issue obscures the real story. I understand completely why people think it matters, because it seems like a sign of instability. But I don't think it really matters. The real story is not about who can't afford what, but rather, how badly each party wants to win.

It just seems much more likely that we remain stuck in something as basic as trench warfare between McCourt and Boras. This war can have winners. It should have winners. All it takes is someone hitting a home run or making an error, all it takes is the success or failure of someone's will -- or god forbid, compromise.

But who knows how long it will take? This is baseball, after all. We don't play by the clock.

If the problem is just deferred money, that's a problem that's easily fixed. Negotiations tend not to fall apart over something like when a player gets paid. If this is personal, as Weisman suggests, there's no telling what will be needed to bring the two sides together. In that case, any little problem becomes a reason not to agree.

Juan Cruz finds a job, landing a two-year deal with the Kansas City Royals. He's posted high strikeouts and low ERAs the last two seasons with the Diamondbacks. His walks are a bit high, but they haven't hurt him much in terms of allowing runs. I'm surprised he stayed on the market this long.

Manny Ramirez noon deadline was for a counter offer by Boras. The two sides now seem to be squabbling not over contract size or length, but deferred money. That's a small difference and now I believe a deal will get done, but who knows when. There's a great Colletti quote at the post.

Dodger Thoughts rounds up the latest Manny Ramirez news as dawn breaks on the west coast. It appears there is a noon deadline for Manny and the team to reach an agreement. That seems to be a bit of a backtrack from the "starting from scratch" statement made last night:

Twelve hours ago, it looked as if the Dodgers had achieved the public relations moment that would make everyone forget about Jamie McCourt's ill-conceived "50 fields" remark. Now, one is tempted to wonder whether Thursday night's release will make that gaffe look minor in comparison.

But let's give ourselves at least until low noon before rendering a verdict.

Stay tuned.

In the wake of Manny Ramirez's rejection of the latest Dodgers offer, I wonder if Manny might get himself in a downward spiral of offers. Los Angeles withdrew a $45 million offer, and as far as we know, there are no other firm offers on the table. Why would a team bid more at this point?

Let's say another team offers Manny a one-year, $20 million deal. I assume Ramirez would reject that as well, and the team that offers says, we're out of the running. As the season approaches and Manny wants a job, other teams might step up with less money.

At some point it might reverse, as Manny's price becomes low enough to actually spark some bidding. Maybe that's the mistake a number of free agents made this winter. They started asking for too much money, and not many teams were interested. Maybe at a lower starting point, more teams would take a look at a player, and the competition might actually bid up the price. When, as in Manny's case, the asking price was too high, there's nowhere to go but down. Manny is the housing market.

Jon Weisman posts the Dodgers statement that Scott Boras rejected their offer for Manny Ramirez:

"We love Manny Ramirez," said Dodgers Owner Frank McCourt, "And we want Manny back, but we feel we are negotiating against ourselves. When his agent finds those 'serious offers' from other clubs, we'll be happy to re-start the negotiations.

"Even with an economy that has substantially eroded since last November, out of respect for Manny and his talents, we actually improved our offer.

"So now, we start from scratch."

I take it Manny won't be getting any more $20 million a year offers. Jon goes on:

It's interesting to note that the Dodgers aim their venom at Boras, even though ostensibly Boras is working for Ramirez. Of course, the natural explanations for this are 1) the Dodgers need to stay on Ramirez' good side in the event he does end up with the team, and 2) doubt about who's boss in the Boras-Ramirez relationship.

That is one of the jobs of an agent, to take all the abuse so the client doesn't need have his relationship soured. It's in fact, one of the best reasons for having an agent. The boss can scream and yell as much as he wants at your representative, but a good one never tells the client that. You just hear how much they love you.

The Dodgers believe they called Boras's bluff. We'll see if that's true soon. I'd really love to see the Giants swoop in and sign Manny now. That would make the NL West a lot more interesting.

Yesterday, Andruw Jones's hitting received a good review, now Kris Benson pitches well for Texas:

Signed to a minor league contract Saturday, Benson, who is coming off rotator cuff surgery, hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006. He needed only seven pitches to end the first inning, but allowed a long home run to designated hitter Billy Butler in the second before inducing a double play to end his outing.

"I felt great. I haven't felt this good in three years," Benson said. "My velocity is getting up there where it used to be. I feel really comfortable. I made the one mistake where I kind of left that slider over the middle of the plate."

Texas always seems to be in need of arms. Benson might be a fresh one who can help them out. It's possible Texas gets two decent players for not a lot of money out of their deals.

The Dodgers still have a two-year, $45 million offer for Manny Ramirez, but now we appear to know more details:

The Dodgers have made another offer to Manny Ramirez, a two-year deal calling for $25 million this season and $20 million for the next -- providing the slugger chooses to exercise the second-year option.

The player option on the second year came at the request of Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras, said a source with knowledge of the situation who did not have authority to speak publicly.

The Dodgers will now wait to hear back from Boras, who will be carrying the offer to his client.

That's pretty much where we started back in early days of this free agent season. I guess if Manny plays well and rehabilitates his image, he'll opt out and try to get a better deal next year. If he thinks the market is still bad, or sees his abilities decline, he can walk away with $20 million next season.

For everything he did to get away from the Red Sox and out of his team options, he may end up with only a $5 million raise over two years. I wonder if Manny thinks it was worth it.

Buster Olney lays Manny Ramirez's unemployment at the feet of Manny Ramirez:

The primary reason for this, unquestionably, is the sport-wide perception that he did not honor his contract in Boston, and went to extraordinary depths to get himself out of that contract. These are not the on-background musings of a couple of rogue scouts, or the chortlings of conspiracy-theorist sports writers. This is the cemented belief of many executives with many teams, reinforced by Ramirez's sudden transformation into a high-energy player as soon as he moved from the Red Sox to the Dodgers. The same guy who was clocked at 5.8 seconds going from home to first base in his last week with Boston suddenly was running full-speed for L.A., his hat flying off.

You might think that Manny is getting picked on. You might think there's no real evidence that he stopped playing hard for the Red Sox.

But apparently, there is an army of decision-makers across the game's landscape who would disagree with you. It's Feb. 25 and one of the best hitters of all-time, fresh off one of the best performances ever, is still in need of offers.

I wonder if the Dodgers or Manny will blink? He appears to have a very good deal on the table in terms of annual salary. In this market, maybe that should be the biggest factor.

Hat tip, Projo Sox Blog.

R.J. Anderson looks at how the length of time and total money given to free agents changed over the last three years.

Ned Colletti denied that the Dodgers have a deal with Manny Ramirez:

KLAC-AM in Los Angeles reported earlier Monday that a contract agreement -- for two guaranteed years and a third year based on games played and plate appearances -- would be announced later this week.

"I'm not going to address that," Boras told the Los Angeles Times.

Colletti told the Times it "would be foolish" to print such unverified information.

That's a pretty weak denial. We'll see what happens in the next couple of days. Does anyone know if Manny left Costa Rica?

Update: Jon Heyman has more:

Both Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers have done some compromising in recent days, according to people familiar with the negotiations, as the two sides seem to now understand that they aren't going to get exactly what they want in a potential deal.

But as to whether the Dodgers ultimately get Ramirez, well, that remains uncertain, even now as spring has sprung.

Unable to sign Ken Griffey, Jr., the Braves take Garret Anderson instead:

The Braves have finally added a veteran bat to their outfield, left-handed slugger Garret Anderson.

The team finalized a one-year contract worth about $2.5 million with the free agent on Sunday, according to a person familiar with negotiations. An announcement is expected to come Monday, and Anderson was en route to Florida to join the Braves at spring training.

Garret's offense has been below average the last three years. He was never much at getting on base. His batting average, however, is high for such a low OBA, and he hit for some power. Again, however, that power is way down in three of the last four years, making Anderson dispensable to the Angels.

Frankly, I'd have rather seen the Braves break the bank for one year and try to win with Manny Ramirez.

Hat tip, Braves Journal.

Boras Blog notes that the Giants failure to sign Joe Crede gives them more money to sign Manny Ramirez.

The Chicago Tribune reports that Joe Crede signed with the Minnesota Twins:

Crede, 30, agreed to terms Friday night with the Minnesota Twins, according to a major league source.

Crede, who provided stellar defense and was a clutch hitter during his tenure with the Sox, signed late in free agency because he was recovering from the latest in a series of back ailments. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, it appeared Crede was willing to sign for less than the $7 million base it was believed he was seeking, but no details were available about the contract.

The Twins were near the bottom of range at third base in 2008, so a healthy Crede should improve their defense. He might even add a bit of power.

Jon Weisman reports the signing, but no details. I'm glad Orlando got a job, and I wonder how much this might affect the signing of Manny Ramirez.

Update: Orlando gets $3.8 million for one year.

Tim Hudson is blaming a reporter for the Braves losing Griffey. Depending on how Ken's season goes, Tim might by thanking him later.

Tom Glavine signed with the Braves for $1 million plus incentives:

Glavine will make an additional $1 million for his first day on the active roster, $1.25 million for 30 days on the roster and another $1.25 million for 90 days on the roster, bringing the total possible value of the deal to $4.5 million. Glavine, however, has agreed to defer a portion of the money, a concession that lowers the present-day value of the contract.

Glavine's walks and strikeouts were even in 2008, never a good sign (either you are striking out too few or walking too many). On top of that, balls were flying out of the park against him. I'll take the under on the Braves paying the full contract.

Rob Neyer offers the perfect take on the winter of 2008-2009:

In the 23rd century, when robot/human hybrids are zipping about the universe in their star cruisers and "writing" about the grand history of the Galactic Pastime, they're going to write about the winter of 2008-2009 as the moment when the men who ran the sport finally realized that you should pay players what they're actually worth. How terribly radical.

My guess, however, is that this will last until owners are flush with money again.

Harold Reynolds hooked up Chuck Armstrong and Ken Griffey, Jr. with Willie Mays to get Junior to sign in Seattle.

Next up for Harold, mid-east peace. :-)

I just received a note from Central America:

Just as a little note - I work on a research vessel in Costa Rica - yesterday ( Jan 18th) while taking a tour we stopped by Villa Calderas which is by the city Jaco in Costa Rica ( 500 a dollar night place - we just stopped by for a drink and to watch the sunset ). Who do we see in the pool - A Mr. Manny who I thought was to be in Arizona for spring training with the Dodgers. When we asked for maybe a picture, a short white man came up to us saying he was trying to relax ( having female company with him ) and was not excepting any photo's. I guess it didn't help that one of us was wearing a Red Sox shirt.

I'm pretty sure he means Feb. 18th. The email came from a legitimate research designation, and going to their site I found the ship and it is indeed off Costa Rica. So Manny looks to be enjoying himself while he waits for someone to sign him.

Ken Griffey, Jr. decided to return to Seattle:

But after conflicting reports about where the aging star would settle, Griffey ultimately chose to follow through on his proclamation two years ago when he came to Seattle while playing with the Reds -- that he wanted to finish his career as a Mariner.

"We were informed tonight that Ken Griffey Jr. has decided to return to Seattle," Braves general manager Frank Wren said. "We will continue to be open to other possibilities to improve our outfield offense and, at the same time, give our young players an opportunity to show us they can win that job."

Zduriencik said the Mariners were the beneficiaries of Griffey wanting to cement his legacy in Seattle.

"Oh, I don't think there's any doubt about that," he said. "Everyone knows Ken Griffey is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and he's returning to his roots. That doesn't happen too often."

Ken's probably better off in Seattle where he can DH every day and lessen the risk of a major leg injury. I'm sure the fans of the Mariners are happy to see him back.

The reports of Griffey signing with Atlanta were a bit premature:

It appeared that Ken Griffey, Jr. had finally found a home when David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that The Kid was becoming a Brave. But now MLB.com is reporting that Griffey himself says that no decision on Atlanta has been reached and that this story isn't over.

Lookout Landing sums up the situation well.

Ken Griffey, Jr. chooses the Braves over returning to the Mariners:

The Braves and Mariners made similar offers, believed to be in the range of $2 million guaranteed, with incentives tied to staying healthy and getting a lot of plate appearances.

Griffey lives in Orlando and is believed to have wanted to be closer to home and his family.

Unlike Ruth, Aaron and Mays, Griffey won't be returning to the city of his start, at least this year. Whether or not this helps or hurts the teams depends on how healthy Ken stays during the season. At this level of salary, it's not much of a risk.

Ken Griffey, Jr. received offers from both the Mariners and Braves, and is expected to decide on Tuesday which he will accept.

For the past year or so, Griffey has talked as if Seattle were the one place he wanted to be, but the Braves made an attractive enough offer to get him to think about returning to the National League and staying just a short flight from Orlando. Griffey, in fact, has been campaigning for a job in Atlanta, the MLB.com report said. Griffey reportedly contacted Braves third baseman Chipper Jones and made sure Wren knew he was interested.

I think he would be better as a designated hitter right now, but I also understand his desire to be close to home.

Will Ohman has three offers, but it sounds like he's waiting for a better team to come calling:

Will Ohman, one of the top relievers left on baseball's free agent market, has major league offers in hand from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins and San Diego Padres, but plans to continue discussions with three contending teams before making a decision on his destination for 2009, his agent said Monday.

The Phillies, Mets and Dodgers have all stayed in touch with Ohman, but their interest has yet to progress beyond the talking stage.

In his six years in the majors, Ohman's strikeouts and home runs are very good, but he walks a few too many. Still, he seems like a player that can help a contender.

MLB, the MLBPA and the Diamondbacks came up with an innovative way to get Juan Cruz signed and the Diamondbacks compensation:

Free agents cannot be traded before June 15 without their consent, but the union will permit Cruz and other Type A players to waive that right, according to Rob Manfred, baseball's executive vice-president of labor relations.

Such a waiver would enable the Diamondbacks to trade Cruz immediately after signing him. The D-backs would need to strike a deal within a set amount of time, probably 48 hours, major-league sources say. If no trade were completed, Cruz would remain a free agent.

"Historically, the union has been reluctant to allow advance waivers on blocking trades," Manfred said. "They've expressed a willingness to allow it. We've given clubs advice on how to operate given the union's willingness."

The increased flexibility in the procedure also could apply to second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop Orlando Cabrera, two other Type A free agents who face diminished markets because of draft-pick compensation.

As far as I can tell, the free agent's former team works out a deal for the player, signs him, then trades him away. The former team gets a traded player instead of a draft pick, and the player gets a job, rather than sitting out until June so the compensation disappears.

Maybe it's time to get rid of compensation. It's seems free agents like Cruz are not truly free.

The Atlanta Braves are competing with the Seattle Mariners for the services of Ken Griffey, Jr.

Atlanta apparently wants Griffey to platoon in left field. With the Mariners, he'd likely be limited to designated-hitter duty.

As the left-handed part of the platoon, Ken would get plenty of playing time and a decent amount of rest. It does sound like a good situation for him. The Braves received little power from left field last season, the group combining for a .352 slugging percentage.

I've seen a number of posts today that Ken Griffey, Jr. was close to signing with the Mariners, but Ken says no.

"We don't know what we're doing next year with respect to Seattle. It's all rumors," Griffey said Thursday after finishing his round at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in California.

Would the Dodgers try to use Griffey as leverage against Manny now that Abreu and Dunn are out of the picture?

Boras Blog is looking for the Dodgers to capitulate on Manny Ramirez very soon. I still wish some other team would step in and suprise us.

The Nationals reportedly sign Adam Dunn. Finally, some team is willing to spend a little money on a bargain. They get a premier power hitter for two years, $20 million.

I'm somewhat surprised he received twice as much money as Abreu, but Adam is much younger.

The Angels signed Bobby Abreu to a one-year, $5 million contract. What a deal. I can't believe one of those good small market teams wouldn't offer Bobby more. Doesn't anyone besides the Angels know a bargain when they see one?

Now that Abreu is signed, will Dunn and Ramirez follow quickly? Dunn has to be thinking he won't get much more, and why pay Manny $25 million when Abreu is worth just $5 million. Manny's a better hitter, but not five times better.

Bobby Abreu is talking to the Angels about a one-year deal. I wonder if this will get Seattle or Texas interested, if for no other reason than to drive up the price.

The Cardinals waive Adam Kennedy. He should be a free agent come Wednesday. If Orlando Hudson is having problems finding a job, I expect Kennedy will also.

The Braves are willing to bring back Tom Glavine, but their contract offer represents a huge pay cut:

Free agent lefthander Tom Glavine has made it known that he'd like to re-sign with the Braves, and he'll get his chance to do so. The Braves' website reports the team has offered the 305-game winner a one-year contract worth between $1 million and $2 million.

He made $9 million in 2008. I guess this means the Braves don't have a great deal of confidence in Glavine's ability to last the season or pitch well.

Paul DePodesta comments on the Cliff Floyd signing, and I'm surprised by how much Paul seems to value leadership:

In an ideal world, we wanted to find a guy who could provide three primary skills: 1) the ability to do damage against RHP as either a pinch hitter, DH or occasional starter, 2) the ability to play somewhere other than 1B if need be, and 3) the ability to act as a leader for our younger players. We found a match in Cliff.

So what's Cliff VORL (value over replacement leader)?

Ben Sheets may or may not have a deal with the Texas Rangers, due to a tear in his elbow.

Cliff Floyd reaches an agreement to play in a limited role for the San Diego Padres:

The deal, pending a physical, will fill the Padres' need for a left-handed pinch-hitter and designated hitter in their nine inter-league games at American League parks.

In those roles, he's less likely to get hurt. His biggest asset, however, is his power, which PETCO is likely to curtail.

The White Sox make Bobby Abreu a one-year, $8 million offer. Steve Rosenbloom speculates on how signing Bobby would lead to other moves by the White Sox.

It continues to be a very bad year to be an aging, free-agent outfielder.

This is an interesting twist. Orlando Hudson says the Yankees are one of four teams interested in him:

Hudson also told the MLB Network he has not been told he would need to change positions. Robinson Cano (Yankees) and Luis Castillo (Mets) are established at second base, but both have been the subject of trade rumors. The Nationals' second base situation is unsettled; the Dodgers have said second-year player Blake DeWitt would take over for the retired Jeff Kent.

Cano, despite his poor 2008, has enough potential to bring a decent return. Are they going to package Cano and one of the outfielders for a true centerfielder?

Via The Hardball Times, Manny Ramirez rejects the Dodgers offer:

Despite proclamations from Boras last week that he started negotiating with other clubs and that he expected Ramirez to be signed by the start of spring training, the Dodgers seem to believe that the player has nowhere else to go.

The New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals are among the teams known to be monitoring Ramirez's situation but don't appear inclined to pay him more than $20 million a season. The Angels failed to re-sign All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira, another Boras client, but have said they won't bid for Ramirez.

By taking the offer, Ramirez would have become the second-highest-paid player in baseball behind Alex Rodriguez and could have reentered the free-agent pool in a year. The Dodgers liked the idea of having Ramirez in a contract year, figuring the temperamental star would play as hard as he did in his two months with them last season, when he hit .396 with 17 home runs and 53 runs batted in.

As Craig Calcaterra notes:

I know Scott Boras is an evil genius and everything, but has someone explained to him that the point of holding out is to make the offers go, you know, higher?

So what does Manny want? If most teams are either not interested nor willing to pay more than $20 million per season, is he simply waiting for a long term contract? Is there a dollar total, where years don't matter, that would land Manny? If a team offered him $75 million over five years, would Manny sign? If the Nationals are indeed interested, I'd try that. Even if they only got three good years from Ramirez, the contract is probably worth it, and Washington seems to be the perfect landing place for baseball jerks. Manny would fit right in.

The Dodgers made a one-year, $25 million dollar offer to Manny Ramirez. I'm somewhat surprised at that level. With the lack of interest, I would have thought they'd come down at least to $20 million. I would guess that level will take the Giants out of the bidding, unless they decide to go longer term.

The Mets reach an agreement with Oliver Perez on a three-year contract. He'll earn $36 million, which is a pretty good contract for this off-season.

Unfortunately, it's the same per season level as Carlos Silva received from the Mariners last year. I would guess most people think Perez is better than Silva, but both have had their ups and downs during their careers. Perez is three years younger, however, meaning the Mets are going to capture his peak seasons. It's a pretty solid deal for the Mets, and Perez is set for life.

Redleg Nation has the same idea as Joe Posnanski, just substitute Cincinnati Reds for Kanas City Royals:

You know what would be great? If the Kansas City Royals announced tomorrow that they just signed Manny Ramirez and Ben Sheets. Convinced them each to come for one year, big money, mercenaries, and then they could go back on the market when the economy is a little better. And owner David Glass came out and said, "I expect to win this year. Or else."

I don't know. It would just a be a different story to write in Kansas City.

I could see the same ideas working for the Florida Marlins, Seattle Mariners and the San Francisco Giants. This seasons represents a chance to get really good players cheap. Why not generate some buzz in a second division town?

This article makes it sound like Bobby Abreu has offers, he's just trying to decide what term fits him best:

These are Abreu's current options: He could accept a one-year deal and plunge back into the market next winter or continue to wait for the situations of teams to change. Greenberg said there were six or seven teams interested, but that number rises and falls.

"It's hard to say we're narrowing it down, because it kind of changes on a daily basis," Greenberg said. "Some teams say they need to make a deal to open up room to sign him. We'll see. We're going to have to decide over the next week or so."

You would think at this point in his career, Bobby does not need the security of a long term contract. In fact, he might be better off playing on one-year deals for the rest of his career, as long as his offense holds up. Would he rather have a $30 million, three-year deal, or possibly sign three $12 million one year contracts?

The Giants' plan to land Manny Ramirez seems to be to wait until Manny is so upset at the Dodgers he's willing to take below market deal someplace else.

Executives with other teams do not believe the Giants are serious players in the Manny bidding. They think San Francisco's real intent is to keep the Dodgers honest, to force them to give Ramirez at least a two-year deal. And if somehow Ramirez gets angered by the Dodgers' level of interest and decides to deliver himself to their division rival, well, all the better for the Giants.

I'm somewhat surprised that a team like the Nationals or Orioles, who were in the bidding for Mark Teixeira, wouldn't commit some of that money to a two-year deal for Manny just for the publicity.

Heh.

Jason Varitek blinks, returning to the Red Sox for $5 million dollars:

Varitek, who turns 37 on April 11, will earn $5 million in 2009, according to baseball sources, with the club holding a $5 million option for 2010. If the Red Sox do not pick up that option, Varitek has the choice of remaining with the club on a $3 million deal. In '10, he can earn another $2 million in incentives based on playing time, beginning at 80 games started.

The incentives apply to the player option only and come increments of $400,000 payable to Varitek for reaching plateaus at 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 games started in 2010.

I actually think the Red Sox would have been better off letting Jason go and hoping they get a draft choice out of a team that was willing to sign him. I guess $5 million was better than nothing for Varitek, and this will make his Boston fans happy.

Mets fans rallied for Manny Ramirez outside the SNY studios (owned by the Mets). It was called the Million Manny March, although they were about 999,970 people short.

Should teams listen to their fans? If the Mets sign Manny and still fall a game short of the playoffs, would Omar Minaya get to fire the Manny maniacs? (Not to be confused with Yacko, Wacko and Dot.)

There's some confusion on the Varitek deadline. Is it Eastern or Pacific time?

Update: Or maye there's no deadline at all.

Jason Varitek is threatening to sit out the 2009 season. Given the environment for free agents, I suspect the Red Sox would be happy to take him up on the offer.

Joe Christensen reports the latest news on Joe Crede.

Dave Cameron doesn't like the Jon Garland deal and thinks the DBacks should have signed Randy Johnson instead.

Jon Garland agrees to a one-year contract with the Diamondbacks for between $6 million and $8 million dollars, likely with a mutual option for 2010.

That Garland is available at a price that's manageable for the Diamondbacks is likely a result of the sluggish economy a down year in 2008 for Garland. Last season with the Los Angeles Angels -- his first year away from the Chicago White Sox -- he posted a 4.90 ERA and saw an increase in base runners allowed and a decrease in his strikeout rate.

Given that, his decision to decline arbitration from the Angels was viewed as a surprise in the industry. In arbitration, he only would have received a one-year contract, but it would have been worth more than the $12 million he made in 2008.

Players certainly overestimated demand for their services at arbitration time. Garland's not a great pitcher, but he's not all that bad either. I would guess he'd regress more toward his mean in 2009. The problem is, that mean can't be all that good due to Jon's low strikeout rate. With that many balls in play, he needs a very good defense behind him. His real fluke year was 2005, when he posted a 3.50 ERA. He allowed a .261 BA with runners in scoring position that year, compared to .279 for his career.

This is a good deal for the Diamondbacks. Garland is a dependable starter who should be able to post an ERA in the low 4.00s. He'll come close to 200 innings, helping to take pressure off the bullpen. In the past, that's been worth well over $10 million a season and a multi-year deal. The DBacks should make sure, however, they have their best defense on the field when he pitches.

The Red Sox gave Jason Varitek until Saturday to agree to a deal. It appears the deal on the table could easily pay Jason less over two years than he wanted for a single season.

Andy Pettitte reaches a deal with the Yankees to be their fifth starter:

It's a $5.5 million deal that could balloon to as much as $12 million based on innings pitched and roster time. As I've written here for weeks, it makes complete sense and creates great flexibility in the rotation.

It's an unusual contract from the Yankees, as they tend to not give out incentive laden contracts. This, however, is a case where it makes sense. Pettitte wanted more than $10 million, and now he'll have to earn it.

The Red Sox made an offer to Jason Varitek, although the details are not clear:

According to a baseball source, the Sox have formally presented an offer to Varitek's agent, Scott Boras, that could appease the catcher's desire for a second guaranteed season. While the precise value or term of the proposal was unclear, the Sox could ensure Varitek a second year by guaranteeing it outright or making it attainable through an option.

I'm not sure what the Red Sox are doing. Will Varitek catch most of the time instead of Bard? Have they abandoned trying to acquire a young, good hitting catcher from Texas? Resigning Jason may make the fans happy, but does it really improve the team? I don't think so.

The Mets appear to be close to signing Oliver Perez.

According to Jon Heyman, also of SI.com, the Mets have increased their initial offer, believed to be worth $30 million over three years.

Yesterday, Andrew Marchand of 1050 ESPN Radio said: "The Mets will eventually be willing to go to four years for Perez."

Verducci believes Minaya would prefer to sign Perez to a three-year deal, worth roughly $10 million per season.

Minaya is willing to guarantee a fourth season, like Marchand said, but only if the annual salary is reduced.

Another example of why it's a lousy year to be a free agent. If I were Perez, I might ask for a shorter contract, with the thought that in two years the market might be a lot better.

Carlos Silva must be thanking his lucky stars he was a free agent last year.

Baseball Time in Arlington sums up the latest news on the Rangers pursuit of Ben Sheets. Extra points for the use of "penultimate." :-)

Ben Sheets met with the Texas Rangers. That's good to hear. The AL West is wide open, and if Sheets is healthy, he's someone who can really help the Rangers.

If the Phillies can't pick up Nomar Garciaparra, they may go for Moises Alou instead.

The Good Phight reacts here.

It looks like Freddy Garcia signed a contract with the Mets.

Reports indicate the Mets have come to terms with Freddy Garcia on an incentive-laden deal that could net him as much as $9 million. Garcia, of course, was once a middle-of-the rotation anchor, but he has made just 14 starts the last two seasons because of a torn labrum.

Gacia showed very good control over his career. He's worth a one-year risk.

The Padres sign Henry Blanco and Paul DePodesta gets to make a little joke:

Throughout the off-season we have been discussing the idea of bringing in a veteran catcher who could help mentor both our young catchers and our young starting pitchers. We feel that Henry fits the role perfectly, especially since he has maintained an 86.2 MR (mentor rating) over the past three seasons.

Paul does get serious and points out what great job Henry does of stopping the running game. Of course, in a year in which the Padres are unlikely to compete, why not bring in a good defensive catcher and see what he can teach your youngsters?

Lone Star Ball notes the disconnect between the money paid to arbitration eligible players and free agents and wonders if these types will be non-tendered next year.

Dunn is also a free agent, unlike Howard. Dunn can market himself to any team, and any team can sign him and pay him whatever they want to pay him, without regard to putting on a case for an arbitrator. And he's still unsigned, with one agent saying he won't get more than $5 million for one year, although Ken Rosenthal thinks Dunn could maybe get 2 years at $20-24 million.

Regardless, Dunn isn't going to come close to the $18 million for one year Howard is asking for, or even the $14 million the Phillies are offering, despite the fact that they are almost the same player (even down to the huge strikeout numbers). The market has spoken, and it has decided Dunn isn't worth the big bucks.

Is there any reason to believe the market would treat Ryan Howard any differently? If the Phillies had simply non-tendered Howard, would Howard get $18 million a year for 2009? Would he get an annual salary twice what Pat Burrell (2 years, $16 million) got from the Rays?

My answer is no.

River Ave. Blues makes some good suggestions for improving the way teams are compensated for losing free agents. However, I would argue that compensation should be eliminated. The point of free agency was to allow the players to move wherever they wanted. The compensation system came into being as a way to thwart free-agency, which we can see clearly this year in the case of Jason Varitek. Teams have six years to use the stars they develop at below cost. Why do they need more? Make free agents truly free!

Here's another vote for the Twins signing Adam Dunn.

The latest has Omar Vizquel headed to the Rangers as a backup for Elvis Andrus. I would also note that if Texas signs Vizquel, they should also use him as a shortstop coach for Andrus. Who could possibly be better at showing the young player the tricks of the trade?

John Henry and Jason Varitek are meeting one on one. I guess the Red Sox really won't negotiate with Boras, only with his clients.

The Orioles reached an agreement with Greg Zaun on a one-year contract:

Baltimore needed a veteran catcher to replace Hernandez, who was traded to the Cincinnati Reds last month for utilityman Ryan Freel and minor leaguer infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.

The Orioles expect Zaun to fill the void at catcher until top prospect Matt Wieters proves he can be consistent at the big league level. Zaun has 14 years of experience to draw upon in working with a young pitching staff and newcomer Koji Uehara of Japan.

Despite his low batting average, Zaun is above average at getting on base. It's a very good move by the Orioles, who now have a very solid back up if Wieters proves he can play. Matt certainly has nothing left to prove at the lower levels of the minors.

The Dodgers are expected to release Andruw Jones today. That means we might see action in the Manny Ramirez market. I wonder how much Adam Dunn is being held up by the Jones situation. Manny's is unlikely to sign before he sees how much the Dodgers are willing to offer. Any other team interested in Ramirez might have Dunn as a backup plan, or possibly Abreu. Once the Dodgers offer becomes clear, will the Giants try to counter? We might have a very interesting upcoming weekend.

There's a rumor that the Padres will sign Omar Vizquel soon. He never seemed to lose his ability to field, so at least he'll plug a hole in the infield.

Hat tip, Gaslamp Ball.

It looks like Derek Lowe agreed to terms with the Braves on the four-year, $60 million contract. At least by trading Smoltz for Lowe, the Braves got younger.

Hat tip, Sabernomics.

The Braves offer Derek Lowe four years, $60 million. I thought that's where he'd end up with the Mets, so now New York will need to top that if they're going to land the starter.

South Side Sox suggests a way to get a player without giving up a high draft pick. I think if that happened, the commissioner would step in and void the deal.

The Braves are going after Derek Lowe, but won't offer a fourth year:

...in other words, now Scott Boras has cover to return to Omar Minaya and say, 'If you want Lowe, pony up $15 million per season, and four guaranteed years,' which, so far, the Mets have quietly been saying is not an option...i guess now we'll see...

I figured the Mets and Lowe would end up there. Now we wait to see.

Chone Smith makes the case for the Angels signing Adam Dunn:

The Angels have an opening at either DH, 1B, or LF, the easiest spots to hide a lumbering power hitter. Signing a bat would not even block Juan Rivera or Kendry Morales. Get a 1B, Kendry plays DH. Get a DH, Kendry plays first. If Vlad needs to DH, Kendry plays OF instead and the new slugger plays first. Get a LF, Rivera plays right and Vlad gets to DH. It's easy. Angels also have no lefty bat on the roster. Perfect opportunity to sign Dunn. What are they waiting for? Sign him now, and you don't have to give up anyone in a trade later.

The move makes sense, especially if you don't want to deal with Manny Ramirez. However, Dunn strikes out a lot, which somewhat goes against Mike Scioscia's offensive philosophy of putting the ball in play.

Henry Schulman is getting into blogging. It's good to see a veteran newsman understand the concept. He continues to be the source on the Giants negotiations with Manny Ramirez:

So here is today's entry: I am told that Scott Boras is spreading word that the Giants are going to make a big push for Ramirez in the next day or two. The Giants' reaction to that was laughter on the other end of the phone line.

Henry also points out that waiting on Ramirez is the Giants best bet, since Manny's leverage goes down the closer they get to spring training.

Long suffering Royals fan Rob Neyer comes down on the Royals for signing Willie Bloomquist to a two-year deal. Dayton Moore describes the .322 OBA hitter as "an on-base guy."

Really? He's a hustler and he hustles? Do you get double-secret extra credit for that? And this might be the first time that a player with a .322 career on-base percentage has been described as "an on-base guy." At least by a modern, (presumably) Web-equipped baseball man. Why not also describe Bloomquist as a "doubles guy"? After all, he did hit one double last year.

As a commenter here points out, the Royals have now committed $11.4 million in 2009 to Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Jacobs, Horacio Ramirez and Willie Bloomquist. For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players.

I had hope for Dayton Moore, but this winter shows either he's not allowed to build the team the way he wants or that he's simply all talk. He's quickly moving into the Dave Littlefield school of GMs. I hope he doesn't do as much damage as Dave did in Pittsburgh.

Bleeding Blue and Teal looks at the market for Orlando Hudson and believes the Mariners might be able to land him for a good price. I thought he would be a popular free agent. Maybe one club needs to show interest to get others involved.

The Brewers make a deal official with closer Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman's walks are still low and his strikeouts are still high. He should fill the role in Milwaukee just fine.

Boston officially signed John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli today (Thursday). Rocco, a Rhode Island native should be very popular at Fenway. I was sort of hoping that Smoltz would retire to see if Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz would all go into the Hall of Fame together.

Sabernomics defends the Braves decision to apparently not sign John Smoltz:

The Braves supposedly had offered $2 million with incentives increasing the total to $7 million. I would not recommend that the Braves offer more than this. It's easy to forecast Smoltz being on the hill in October, but there's also a decent chance that he'll be sitting on a gold-plated butt cushion in the dugout.

I don't think Frank Wren deserves the heat that he is going to get for this. The Braves have paid Smoltz $130 million over his career. Smoltz wanted more, and I don't blame Wren for passing. Signing and not signing Smoltz both have risks, and I think he gambled on the right side.

I'm somewhat surprised in this down market that teams are willing to pay for injury risk. Pavano is getting over $1 million, and now the Red Sox are taking on Penny and Smoltz for about $5 million each. I guess without Teixeira, the Red Sox have a lot of money to throw around.

Nico at Athletics Nation wonders if the signing of Jason Giambi will lead to Oakland trading an outfielder for a shortstop.

Ken Rosenthal reports Trevor Hoffman is likely to sign with Milwaukee.

Jason Giambi officially returns to the Athletics:

Giambi, who turns 38 on Thursday, follows a line of aging and injury-prone designated hitters in recent years with the A's -- Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney and then Thomas again. Giambi also could play some first base to give Daric Barton a break from time to time.

Giambi doesn't like to DH, so I wonder how that will play with the A's management.

Henry Schulman notes the truth and baloney in what we're hearing about the Giants and Manny Ramirez. The Giants can sign Manny if they are willing to increase their budget is the bottom line.

AOL is buying up sports reporters like the Yankees are buying free agents. They add Lisa Olson to the list, and she gets the scoop on the Yankees version of Thanksgiving with the Schillings:

Then there was Boston, forever a Yankee thorn. The Red Sox drafted Teixeira out of high school, but his father John reportedly became irked at a Boston scout and urged his son to instead attend college. Now the Red Sox were again heavy on the scene; Cashman figured he might as well play along.

So he did a bit of research, discovered Teixeira had a fondness for Twisted Sister, the iron men of '80s rock. Sometimes it really is this simple, this high-stakes recruiting game. Sure, it helped that the Yankees eventually offered $180 million over eight years, but what really wowed Teixeira was the super cool video Cashman revealed when he came to visit in the middle of December.

Shot in the new stadium, with digitalized images of what Teixeira might look like as he ran out of the dugout and onto the grass, the crowd at a froth, the New York skyline in the distance, the sound track blared "I Wanna Rock." Cashman pressed play.

"Hey, that's my song!" Cashman recalled Teixeira saying as he and I walked through the old stadium hallways. "I was like, yeah, we know that."

And at that point, with Twisted Sister on blast, Leigh, Teixeira's college sweetheart who is now his wife, said, "I want you to be a Yankee."

I'd love to see that video, but for now, this one.

Neidermeyer, dead.

Nationals Journal posts some comments from Mark Teixeira related to his negotiations with Washington:

Teixeira on Nats: "With Ted Lerner and his family -- man, what an impressive guy. That guy is a very successful businessman and he's trying to make the Nationals a successful team. The Nationals and Orioles were definitely up there -- a chance to play close to home. But my goals as a ballplayer, to be a world champion, the Yankees were just so far above and beyond everyone else in that realm."

Jason Giambi reached an agreement with the Oakland Athletics:

Jason Giambi has agreed to a one-year deal with the Athletics worth $4.5 million. Oakland has a team option for 2010 at $5 million with a $1 million buyout. The deal is pending a physical that will take place tomorrow.

Giambi did not receive much interest in the free-agent market. The A's and Rays were the two teams considering signing the 37-year-old. But Tampa Bay signed ex-Phillie Pat Burrell yesterday to a two-year, $16 million contract. So Giambi's decision to return to Oakland was not a difficult one.

Giambi is still a good hitter, his main problem is staying healthy. At seasonal age 38, those concerns are multiplied enough that Jason is taking a huge pay cut to keep playing. Except for the stars the Yankees hired, this has proved to be a very poor year to be a free agent.

The Cleveland Indians sign Carl Pavano to a one-year contract:

Financial terms were not disclosed. Sources told ESPN.com that the deal was worth $1.5 million plus incentives. Pavano can earn an additional $5.3 million based on starts and innings pitched.

"Carl was very impressed with everything when he visited Cleveland,'' agent Tom O'Connell said. "He's excited to be there and he feels like this is a tremendous opportunity.''

Pavano, 32, is looking to rehabilitate his career after suffering numerous injuries in four seasons with the Yankees. He posted a 9-8 record in 26 starts after signing a four-year, $39.95 million contract with New York in December 2004.

I'm surprised the Indians were willing to guarantee that much money given Carl's recent history. It's Pavano's rehabilitation deal. If he pitches well, he can cash in on the free agent market next season. If not, at least he gave it a try.

If Pavano pitches great and Sabathia ends up injured for most of the season, I suspect a lot of Yankees fans will be sore from banging their heads against a wall. :-)

Hat tip, Lone Star Ball.

There are reports that Milton Bradley is close to a three-year, $30 million deal with the Cubs. Bradley, in a short season in 2008 was a legitimate MVP candidate, posting a .436 OBA and a .563 slugging percentage. For his career, he's not quite as good a hitter as Pat Burrell, but he can still play the outfield. Since Jim Edmonds was unlikely to repeat his 2008 batting stats, the Cubs now have a very solid outfield with Soriano, Bradley and Fukudome for frankly a very good price. It looks like teams are starting to grab the bargains.

Hat tip to River Ave. Blues, who makes the case the Yankees were right not to offer arbitration to Abreu, because if he accepted he would have been overpaid.

Fox reports Pat Burrell agreed to a two-year contract with the Tampa Bay Rays:

The Rays, filling their need for a power hitter, are close to signing free-agent Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16 million contract, according to major-league sources.

Burrell, 32, will serve as the team's designated hitter. The Rays, nearing their payroll limit, could use some combination of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Gross and Fernando Perez in right field.

It's a great signing for the Rays. Burrell is taking a pay cut here (his former deal was six years, $50 million), yet his OPS+ was consistently in the 120s for the last four years. He brings another great on-base average to the Rays, who keep moving away from the hacker model they used for so many years. Pat's big draw back in Philly was his defense, and that won't be a problem at designated hitter. I'm very surprised they got him for so little money, if indeed that number is correct. That's not good news for Abreu, Dunn and Manny Ramirez.

Hat tip, BallHype.

Tyler Kepner puts together a pretty good team from the remaining free agents:

The number of prominent unsigned free agents is staggering. You could make an impressive team from the list: Jason Giambi (1B), Orlando Hudson (2B), Orlando Cabrera (SS), Joe Crede (3B), Manny Ramírez (LF), Ken Griffey Jr. (CF), Bobby Abreu (RF), Jason Varitek (C), with names like Garret Anderson, Rocco Baldelli, Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn left over. And the free-agent rotation would be at least six strong: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland, Andy Pettitte, Braden Looper and Randy Wolf, with Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon in the bullpen. This could be the busiest January in years as frustrated agents deal with the economic downturn.

I'm not sure that's a playoff team, but it would finish over .500. The infield defense would be okay, but lots of balls would drop in the outfield.

Derek Lowe is looking for four years, $16 million a year. So that's closer to the Mets offer than the 5 years, $18 million being talked about before. My guess is the Mets come back with $14 million a year for three years. Of course, other bidders might come in at that level as well.

Chone Smith projects how Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa might do in 2009 if teams actually pick up their contracts.

Henry Schulman knocks down the rumor about the Giants pursuing Manny Ramirez. I looked at how Manny would help the Giants in my latest SportingNews.com column.

The Nationals are interested in free agents Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson. Signing all three would certainly remake this team quickly.

The Dodgers sign Claudio Vargas to a one-year deal, guaranteeing him the minimum $400,000. Vargas's seasonal age will be 31 in 2009, and he hasn't pitched a good season since his rookie year of 2003. Why are the Dodgers wasting even $400,000 on him, when they really need to replace Penny and Lowe?

Derrick Turnbow reached a minor league agreement with the Texas Rangers, choosing the team due to the presence of Mike Maddux.

Turnbow pitched one great year in 2005, but a steady rise in his walk rate negated his high strikeout rate. Injuries held him to just 6 1/3 badly pitched innings in 2008. He's a reclamation project.

I'm somewhat surprised the Cardinals were not willing to eat Adam Kennedy's $4 million dollar contract to keep Aaron Miles.

The Angels sign Brian Fuentes to a two-year deal. He'll take over the closer role vacated by Francisco Rodriguez.

Since the start of the 2005 season, when Fuentes became a closer, K-Rod leads the majors in saves. Fuentes ranks 14th, but his strikeout rate and home run rate compare well with Rodriguez, while Fuentes walks fewer batters. Given the Angels ability to win over the time period compared to the Rockies, I suspect Brian might set a career high for saves this season.

The Mets off Derek Lowe $12 million a year for three years. He wants $18 million a year for five years. I wonder how close they'll end up to $15 million a year for four years?

It seems the Dodgers are also interested in Bobby Abreu, which makes perfect sense. Torre knows Bobby from his last year in New York, and Bobby's a better defensive outfielder than Dunn. I disagree, however, with this on Manny Ramirez:

Having already turned down $45M over two years and the $25M he likely would have received in arbitration, Manny's painted himself into a corner and has two options: go crawling back to Coletti, or retire. I'm very interested in seeing how this one plays out.

I don't think Manny will go the way of Barry Bonds. I still believe he can help the Marlins, and possibly the Rays as well. With his home in Florida and his price dropping, don't be surprised to see him in the uniform of one of the Florida teams.

I also would not rule out the Cardinals. Yes, they have other options in the outfield, but imagine Manny and Pujols back-to-back. That would be a lot of offense in the middle of that lineup.

I'd just love to see the Twins dump a short term ton of money on Manny as well. They didn't play Santana his $20 million a year, and since they were willing to go that high on Santana, they likely have the money. Why not spend it on Manny and add one more bat to the Mauer/Morneau combination?

Jayson Stark reports the Dodgers are now looking at Adam Dunn instead of Manny Ramirez. One of the nice things for teams who need a corner outfielder is that they have three good ones available in Dunn, Burrell and Ramirez. If one is asking too much money or too many years, just go sign another. That should keep the price down on all three.

The Orioles are on the verge of signing Mark Hendrickson. I hope they are paying him very little money. Mark is a low strikeout pitcher who is easy to hit. He doesn't give up many walks because batters don't need to wait around for a pitch to smack. As you can see at the link above, he's especially bad with runners in scoring position. If an unclutch pitcher exists, Mark Hendrickson is it.

The Orioles got rid of Daniel Cabrera, with a career 5.05 ERA, and move in Hendrickson with a 5.07 ERA. Why? The point is to improve. Derek Lowe is sitting out there cheap, and would improve the Orioles rotation. This move is just Baltimore spinning their wheels.

A bit of trivia, Hendrickson Ken Griffey's 600th home run.

The Red Sox made an offer to Josh Bard.
His physical will seal the deal at last.
His catching tasks will not be made too hard,
Since Wakefield's balls too often ended passed.

Ken Rosenthal reports the Red Sox are about to sign Brad Penny to a one year deal:

The move would give the Red Sox the ability to keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen and be patient with Clay Buchholz.

Or, trade one of those pitchers to Texas for a catcher.

Brad is great when he's healthy, but 2008 wasn't that year. With a sore shoulder, it was the worst of his career. Penny's also played his career in home parks that favored the pitcher. His career ERA is 0.8 runs higher on the road than at home. I suspect the designated hitter and Fenway Park will raise his ERA a bit. For one year, however, it's a risk worth taking.

Buster Olney looks at the teams interested in Manny Ramirez and comes out with one:

The Nationals apparently have money to spend, and in theory, if they were to sign Ramirez, it could be an interesting play. He would be a lure for fans and would give a reason for folks to tune in to watch the Nationals, something that very few people did last season. But here's the quandary: For that gambit to pay off, Ramirez would have to play hard for the duration of his contract.

Would you be willing to bet $100 million on that?

Or even $40 million? Because as some general managers have said privately, a great concern they have about Ramirez is that if you give him a deal of two or more years that is worth far less than he thinks he deserves, you run the risk of having a very unhappy Manny. As the Red Sox can attest, that didn't work out so well in the end. Thus, it's almost a new year, and one of the greatest hitters of our lifetime who's coming off one of the greatest showings of our lifetime is unemployed.

It strikes me that the Marlins would be a good place for Manny to land as well. The team is close to his Florida home, and the Marlins make enough in revenue sharing to pay for Manny's contract. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Marlins become legitimate contenders with Manny on the team.

If I were a GM, I would offer him a $25 million, one year contract, with three team options of $27, $29 and $30 million dollars. That way, he's always playing for a contract, and if he gets into one of his snits, the team can let him go at the end of the season.

The Reds sign Willy Taveras to lead off. Taveras is a pretty poor offensive players, never posting as OPS+ over 89. He's not even much of an improvement over combined players used by the Reds in the leadoff slot in 2008. They combined for a .266/.326/.423 line. Willy's career line is .283/.331/.337. So he gets on base a tiny bit more, but provides no power.

Did Walt Jocketty forget what a leadoff man does? This is the person who gets the most plate appearances for your team in a season, and he's giving it to someone who provides a minimum of offense. With signings like this, don't expect Cincinnati to rise to prominence any time soon.

Randy Johnson gets $8 million from the Giants, with $2.5 million in incentives. His signing makes Barry Zito the most expensive fifth starter in the big leagues.

Randy Johnson reaches a deal with the San Francisco Giants. He'll try to win five games for 300 wins with a poor offense behind him.

Randy Johnson beats out Terry Bross as tallest San Francisco Giants player. Bross was 81 inches, Johnson is 82.

Johnson's 2008 season was actually pretty good. He improved both his strikeouts and walks over last full season, 2006 with the Yankees. With the ability to strike out close to a batter per inning, Johnson is still someone who can be an effective pitcher. He might also teach the youngsters on the Giants something about pitching. I haven't heard the price yet, but it's a good signing. Fans will come out to see him win 300, and he likely makes the rotation better.

The Twins sign R.A. Dickey, although the terms have not been revealed (it may be a minor league deal). La Velle Neal wonders what use the Twins have for the knuckleballer.

But in an offseason during which finding eighth-inning help is a higher priority, it's a little bit of a head-scratcher to see the Twins sign someone to be a middle reliever or spot starter. It's hard to see that when, if they need a spot start during the season, they can turn to Boof Bonser or Philip Humber or call up Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak or even Jeff Manship.

Now it's fair to come back with the argument that the Twins likely aren't spending a lot of money here and that teams bring in veteran arms all the time. But the Twins have plenty of options for starters, and we have seen in the past when trying the cagey veteran instead of the kid with more talent has failed.

Dickey's pitched poorly most of his career, and it's tough to believe the Metrodome will help him that much.

The Mets ownership does not want Manny Ramirez. Although people think the Yankees are done, I really wonder if they don't swoop in with a one-year contract at some point.

The Mets ownership does not want Manny Ramirez. Although people think the Yankees are done, I really wonder if they don't swoop in with a one-year contract at some point.

Sources are telling everyone that Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees, pending a physical.

The New York Yankees swooped in Tuesday and nabbed prized free agent Mark Teixeira, reaching agreement with the first baseman on an eight-year contract worth $180 million, two sources involved in the negotiations tell ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.

The Yankees had made an offer to Teixeira weeks ago, but then withdrew it. Their intention all along was to make a deal if it fell within parameters acceptable to the organization. They made their formal offer Tuesday.

The contract will pay Teixeira an average of $22.5 million per season.

Note that this blog had the Yankees signing three big-name free agents on Sept. 9th, and actually got two of them right.

Mark does it all offensively, hitting for average, getting on base, and hitting for power. On top of that, he added very good range numbers. Think of a Jason Giambi who can move.

The main problem with the signing is that it creates a glut in the outfield and at designated hitter. Matsui, Damon, Swisher, Nady and Cabrera. On the other hand, with a righty, two lefties and two switch hitters, and Damon, Swisher and Cabrera all able to play center, there are plenty of platoon and defensive alignments available. No one should get worn out. Still, I won't be surprised if one of these players moves in a trade.

This also means Jorge Posada won't be moving to first anytime soon.

Once again, the Yankees are taking advantage of their strong financial position in a down market to stock up on great players. Now, we'll see if it actually pays off.

Yankees Examiner Pete Sabatini likes the move.

The comments to Jon Heyman's latest Mark Teixeira rumor are priceless. Most are like this:

Heyman, please. Just let us know when he actually signs with someone. Jeez. We don't need a play-by-play, especially when there is nothing to report!

It would be something if Teixeira signed with a team that is totally off the radar.

The Washington Nationals upped their offer to Mark Teixeira. This seems strange, since the two biggest bidders are now not talking to Boras.

I would really like to see Teixeira sign in Washington. The Nationals need a public relations boost, and there's nothing issuing a huge contract to a star to get the public's attention.

Sons of Bill Simmons get the scoop on the Red Sox reaching a deal with Mark Teixeira. We'll see if this one works out better than the last one.

Rafael Furcal adds his two cents on the Braves deal that didn't happen:

Braves president John Schuerholz and general manager Frank Wren were quoted in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution as saying Furcal's agent asked the Braves to send a signed letter of agreement, then reached a deal with the Dodgers.

"That is not true," Furcal said. "We never, not my agents nor me, agreed to anything with the Braves."

This reminds me of the story I linked to recently on common law and the infield fly rule. What Furcal and his agent did wasn't against the written rules of baseball. It did appear, however, to be against the common law of these matters. It's pretty clear from the Braves point of view that you don't ask for a term sheet before the deal is done. Furcal's agent violated a common practice, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that put into writing at some point.

Impacto Deportivo reports that Manny Ramirez is going to sign a three-year, $75 million deal with the Yankees. We'll see, but it would not surprise me. If they do sign Manny, however, they would probably need to deal away one or two of their surplus outfielders.

Hat tip, The FanHouse.

The Angels withdraw their offer to Mark Teixeira:

Yahoo! on Sunday quoted sources saying Angels owner Arte Moreno concluded Teixeira didn't want to play for his team and the Angels were being used as a bartering tool to drive up the price.

It seems teams caught on to Boras's game and the rich ones will no longer allow themselves to be used that way. I wonder how Mark will look in a Nationals uniform?

Lone Star Ball points out a reason Mark Teixeira might not want to play for the Yankees:

I mean, we heard back in 2004 about how much the other Rangers players (including, presumably, Mark Teixeira) disliked Alex Rodriguez and how much better they could play once he was gone...surely Teixeira wouldn't want to go lock himself in to almost a decade of sharing an infield with ARod if that was true, would he?

As Cyndi Lauper so eloquently put it, money changes everything.

Scott Boras called the Yankees about Mark Teixeira:

The Yankees do not have an offer on the table for Teixeira, and Boras apparently called the Yankees telling them what it would cost to land Teixeira. According to my source, that number was $22-23 million a year over eight years for a total of $180-185 million. The Yankees are still debating that, and there are some in the organization who want to do it, but they appear to be leaning against making an offer.

This could be an interesting game of passive chicken between the Yankees and Red Sox. With neither of them bidding at this point, the Nationals and Angels can keep their prices low (if $20 million a year is low). Then, we'll see if one of the two big rivals blinks at the last minute and tries to land Mark. At that point, they may be able to obtain his services for $21 million a year.

Murray Chass provides a nice summary of the Rafael Furcal debacle. He calls Paul Kinzer to ask about the term sheet, but Kinzer won't talk:

Asked that question in the brief phone conversation, Kinzer replied, "I can't say anything about it right now because there are some other things." He, of course, didn't say what the other things were.

The term sheet is the pivotal piece of evidence in the dispute. Furcal said upon his signing Saturday that he hadn't made up his mind whether he wanted to stay with the Dodgers or return to the Braves. A friend said he had a serious conflict not just choosing the team but also with the managers, liking both Joe Torre and Bobby Cox.

But if Furcal had not made up his mind to play for the Braves, why did Kinzer ask for their term sheet?

Tellem did not address the term sheet in his e-mail statement. Defending Kinzer's actions, Tellem said it was simply a case of Furcal's ultimately deciding to take the Dodgers' offer, basing his decision on several factors, the most important being the position switch.

Chass notes that the Braves refusal to work with WMG may lead to a grievance by the union, and that Yunel Escobar is represented by the group.

The Nationals pick up a pitcher off the Orioles' scrap heap.

Daniel Cabrera is no longer an Oriole, but he's not leaving the area.

Cabrera, who wasn't tendered a contract by the Orioles last week, has signed a one-year, $2.6 million deal with the Washington Nationals, pending a physical, according to an industry source.

The Orioles would have had to pay him likely between $3 and $4 million in 2009 had they offered him arbitration.

Cabrera posted a 5.05 ERA during his career. If you knock down his ERA a bit for pitching in the National League, he would rank about third in the Nationals rotation.

The trick, of course, is to get Cabrera's walks down. If the Washington coaching staff can accomplish that feat, they might have a #1 starter on their hands.

Buster Olney looks at how the market is collapsing for free agents.

I believe one of the reasons the Yankees are spending so much this year is that they are getting their players for a relatively low price. When you're cash rich in a down market, it's a good time to acquire assets.

CC Sabathia will be paid all year, not just during the baseball season:

While most players are paid semi-monthly during the six months of the regular season, Sabathia's salary will be paid in semi-monthly instalments over all 12 months of the year. That means he will have received six payments of $583,333 before the opener.

I'm not sure if this was CC idea or the Yankees. I can see where this might help the Yankees with cash flow, but mostly, CC gets to earn more interest on his money.

There are reports the Red Sox reached an agreement with Mark Teixeira. I'm waiting for a somewhat more official announcement.

Update: The reports were wrong:

Red Sox owner just e-mailed several media members with a stunning twist in the team's pursuit of Mark Teixeira. "We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him. After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor."

There must be a a ton of money or years on the table.

Sabernomics passes along notes on an interview he heard with Frank Wren. On the Furcal deal falling apart:

Furcal's agent left a voice mail asking for a "term sheet" and stated "we're good." Wren emphasized that "we're good" was a direct quote, and that in a business where face-to-face meetings are rare this constitutes a done deal.

So you can see why the stories about Furcal coming to the Braves broke.

The trade for Jake Peavy fell through. A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees. Now, Rafael Furcal decided to stay with the Dodgers:

The Braves' winter of discontent continued Wednesday, when shortstop Rafael Furcal reached a contract agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers -- two days after the Braves said they had an agreement with Furcal.

One week before Christmas, the Braves have coal in their stockings and something other than holiday cheer for Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer.

"I think you have to be upset with the turn of events," Braves general manager Frank Wren said. "We usually don't do business this way. You don't expect people you have to deal with to do business that way."

Wren said he and Kinzer negotiated all contract details Monday night and the Braves sent a term sheet to the agent's office for Furcal to sign Tuesday morning. Term sheets are the final step, after an agreement is reached.

Wren said the term sheet was never returned.

"We were very surprised," he said. "After reaching an agreement on Monday night, and being asked to produce a term sheet for signature on Tuesday morning, which we did, we were surprised that they didn't return the term sheet. ... All of a sudden, they said they needed to go back to the Dodgers."

I'm guessing Kinzer won't be well trusted in the future.

There's been quite a brouha over Rafael Furcal. Reports yesterday had him going to Atlanta, but here's the latest from Furcal's agent:

"They know we didn't have a signed contract, that we didn't have even a verbal agreement. We had, 'Things look very good and Raffy's going to sleep on it,'" Kinzer said after a news conference for another client, Francisco Rodriguez.

David O'Brien rants about the handling of the situation here.

The Nationals fans at We've Got Heart remake a Christmas classic to lure their favorite free agent.

The Tigers are ready to sign catcher and Baseball Musings favorite Matt Treanor to a one year contract:

Treanor has a long-standing connection to another noteworthy Tiger: He made his debut in a game started by Dontrelle Willis on June 2, 2004. Willis did not allow a runner that day until ex-Tiger Sean Casey, then with the Cincinnati Reds, singled in the seventh inning, according to Retrosheet.org.

Research through Retrosheet.org also revealed that Treanor was the starting catcher in 11 of Willis' final 14 starts with Florida in 2007.

Here's how Dontrelle pitched in that period.

Nick and Nick would rather the Twins stand pat than sign Ty Wigginton:

I don't think Wigginton would be a terrible acquisition at the right price, but he doesn't get me particularly excited. The Twins entered this offseason with a sizable surplus in their budget and it will be unfortunate if they end up sitting on their excess rather than using it to add players who can help them win, but having the money to sign Wigginton is not reason enough to sign him. When all aspects of his game are taken into account, I don't think he adds much to this club. Even if it's not particularly exciting, sometimes holding steady makes sense.

If the Red Sox do sign Teixeira, maybe the Twins would use that surplus to acquire Lowell or Youkilis from Boston.

Manny Ramirez might be holding up the Brewers-Yankees deal for Mike Cameron:

One possible explanation for the Yankees' sudden halt to the negotiations with Milwaukee is the Bombers' increased interest in Ramirez. Should the Yankees sign Ramirez, he would become the new left fielder, shifting Johnny Damon to his old stomping grounds in center. In that scenario, Cameron would no longer be needed.

If the Yankees sign Ramirez, they should try to move either Damon or Matsui. Manny should be the designated hitter.

Might Seattle be in on the bidding for Mark Teixeira?

If the Red Sox do sign Mark Teixeira, what happens to the rest of the infield? After all, Boston just signed Mike Lowell to a new contract last year. Kevin Youkilis was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2008. Do they flip Youk for a catcher? Do they try to trade Lowell and let Kevin take over at third? Offensively, some combination of Teixeira-Youkilis makes the most sense. So would Texas want Lowell for one of their remaining catchers? Or does Kevin become trade bait to land a package of prospects?

Cesar Izturis takes over at shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles finally filled their hole at shortstop, signing free agent Cesar Izturis to a two-year contract Tuesday.

The 28-year-old Izturis batted .263 in 135 games with the St. Louis Cardinals this year. He ranked third in the NL with a .980 fielding percentage.

"This is a good opportunity to play every day," Izturis said. "I think they needed a defensive shortstop. I just want to help the team win; it will be fun."

Amazingly, despite Izturis's poor career numbers as a hitter, this is actually an improvement at the position over last year. Cesar's career line is .260/.299/.331, so it tells you just how bad the Orioles were at shortstop in 2008.

Defensively, the Orioles were in the middle of the pack in 2008 according to the Probabilistic Model of Range. Izturis should improve that as well.

This signing is a small step in the right direction for Baltimore. They needed to fill a hole, and they got halfway there with Izturis.

It looks like the Braves are about to land Rafael Furcal, and possibly Jake Peavy:

FoxSports.com reported early today that Furcal, a free agent and former Braves standout, has agreed to return to Atlanta on a three-year contract that could be announced as soon as he passes a physical. He missed much of last season with back problems.

If the Braves land Furcal, 31, it could possibly signal an imminent trade of shortstop Yunel Escobar or second baseman Kelly Johnson in a deal for an elite-level starting pitcher the Braves have spent so much time this offseason attempting to acquire.

It's also possible they trade for Zack Greinke.

Given Furcal's career in total, he's on the same offensive plane as Johnson and Escobar. So the Braves will increase their spending on the middle infield without an offensive boost to grab a front-line starting pitcher.

The ageless Jamie Moyer signs a two-year deal with the Phillies. He'll be 47 when the deal is done.

When I started working for STATS, Inc., I wondered who would be the last player to still playing in the pre-STATS era, that is, before 1987. I figured there was a good chance it would be Barry Bonds. With Greg Maddux retired, however, the honor goes to Moyer.

It looks like Rafael Furcal turning down the Athletics initial offer wasn't such a bad move after all:

The A's have improved their initial four-year offer to Furcal, according to major-league sources.

Furcal, 31, does not appear to have another four-year proposal, though negotiations are fluid and subject to change.

That's odd the A's are bidding against themselves. Hat tip, BBTF.

Just in case you're wondering, Barry Bonds hasn't retired. Since the Washington Nationals like to hire ne're-do-wells, maybe they can sign both Barry and Manny. Lots of balls would drop in the outfield, but the offense would be fun to watch.

The Phillies sign Chan Ho Park. He seems to know more about his strengths and weaknesses than Ruben Amaro:

The Korea Times reports it is a one-year, $2.5 million contract with performance bonuses that could push the contract to $5 million. It quotes Park as saying, "I was a little worried about the Citizen Bank Park, the home of the Phillies, which is hitter-friendly, but as they considered me as a starter, I signed with Philadelphia."

I'm guessing Park puts up a 5.50 ERA at home this year.

Pat Burrell talks about the Phillies quietly letting him go. He doesn't see to be bitter at all. I'm sure going out on top helps. Some fans actually like Pat:

"Living downtown with Michelle and having the dog, walking to the park every day, the support was incredible coming down the stretch. I can't tell you how many people came up to me and said stuff like, 'We love having you here, we hope you stay. You went through such bad times and you made it out. You came back and became a great player.' Stuff like that is important, for me anyway, to know that, hey, they're behind you and they care about you and they're pulling for you to get back on track."

Now Pat is competing with Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez for a job.

Peter Schmuck agrees with the Orioles allowing Daniel Cabrera to walk. However:

Of course, when he suddenly blooms into a 15-game winner, we'll all act like we were totally against this decision and blame Andy MacPhail for being short-sighted and cheap. That's baseball.

Yep.

There a rumor that Peter Angelos is wooing Mark Teixeira at the Ravens game today.

The Indians satisfied themselves of Kerry Wood's health and completed the deal for the closer:

Wood, 31, passed his physical Thursday in Cleveland and the Indians signed him to a two-year deal worth an estimated $20 million. The deal, which will be announced later today, includes an option for a third year that contains a vesting mechanism.

Two years ago, it looked like the Indians owned two potential closers in the Rafaels, Betancourt and Perez. They were unable to step into Joe Borowski's shoes in 2008, however, so the Indians went for someone tested in the role at a higher cost.

When Wood is right, as he was in 2008, he strikes out a lot of batters, walks very few, and gives up a low number of home runs. In other words, he makes it difficult for an offense to generate consecutive hits, or generate the power that turn a mistake into two or three runs. If he stays healthy, this is an excellent signing by the Tribe.

The Yankees land A.J. Burnett:

Free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett has reached a preliminary agreement with the Yankees on a five-year, $82.5 million contract, joining lefty CC Sabathia in the team's revamped rotation.

The deal is pending Burnett's physical.

That's a pretty good contract for someone who set his career high for starts and innings at age 31, only $2 million less per year than Barry Zito. Burnett, however, is a good pitcher with a high strikeout rate and a low home run rate. His walk rate is decent, also. In fact, his career ERA of 3.81 seems a bit high for his stats. In fact, in four of the last five years, Burnett's FIP is lower than his ERA. That certainly makes this look like a better deal.

The big question with A.J. is his durability. Over the last three seasons he's made 21, 25 and 35 starts. With that kind of money, the Yankees will want him closer to 30 starts every year.

So the top four of the Yankees rotation looks like Sabathia, Burnett, Wang and Chamberlain. Three big K pitchers and a worm killer. The added strikeouts should take pressure off the Yankees defense. At this point, New York can sign someone like Ben Sheets short term, or make Hughes and Kennedy fight it out for the fifth spot.

SportsAgentsBlog suggests the defection of Jeremy Guthrie might lead to bad blood between Scott Boras and CAA.

Is Manny Ramirez the next Barry Bonds?

Manny Ramirez is so upset by his lack of suitors on the free agent market that he's told friends he would consider retirement if an offer doesn't come soon, Newsday reported yesterday.

Obviously, the Dodgers want him back, but I find it tough to believe that no one upped the Los Angeles offer even a little. Two years, $50 million? Three years, $75 million? It seems Manny's antics in Boston turned off a lot of teams, even to a short-term deal.

The Angels put in their bid on Mark Teixeira, $160 million for seven years. The Nationals offered the same money for eight years. Do the Nationals reduce their years to seven and see how much Teixeira wants to play close to home, or do they increase the money to $183 million for eight years and beat the Angels on both time and money? Maybe they go $180 million for nine years.

The Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a three-year deal, but The Good Phight wonders why they didn't go for Adam Dunn instead.

The Tao of Stieb tries to find a silver lining in the Yankees restocking their rotation. All I can say is the only thing CC Sabathia and Jaret Wright have in common is that they started their careers in Cleveland.

YFSF gives it a whirl as Boras tries to make a market for Jason Varitek.

The signing of CC Sabathia is having a positive effect on other free agents:

Additionally, WEEI's Lou Merloni, who played with Lowe, says he is now more interested in the Yankeees because of CC Sabathia.

Compare that to the lament of Dave O'Brien at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Players do not want to come to Atlanta the way they used to want to come to Atlanta. Especially pitchers. It's still more attractive than a majority of the 30 teams in baseball, but not necessarily more attractive, or even as attractive, as a handful or more big-money, big-market teams competing for top players.

Much of that has to do with the facts that A., the Braves have missed the postseason for three years running, and will have to knock off the defending World Series champions and/or the new-stadiumed, deep-pocketed N.Y. Mets to get to the playoffs in 2009; and 2., the Braves are competing against a few teams, one in particular (hint: pinstripes), that are spending far more money than the Braves.

The most famous example was Greg Maddux turning down more money from the Yankees to pitch for Atlanta. Now, both Lowe and Burnett may prefer pitching for the Yankees.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff doesn't like the idea of the Phillies signing Chan Ho Park, and neither do I. Park pitches very well at Dodger Stadium, not so well other places. Both his walk and home run rates were much higher away from Los Angeles last season, with opponents slugging 100 points higher against him on the road. This would be the same mistake Texas made, signing a pitcher whose number were dependent on pitching in a low run park and placing him in a haven for home runs.

MetsBlog.com heard this today:

In an on-air report for ESPN News, Buster Olney said he cannot find a GM, outside of the Dodgers, who will say they have interest in signing Manny Ramirez.

My guess is the lack of interest is due to the length of the contract Manny seeks. If he were looking for a two-year deal, there would be a ton of interest.

There's an opt-out clause in Sabathia's contract:

Sabathia is expected to receive an opt-out clause after three years, which was a prerequisite for him to sign with any team, not just the Yankees, according to a source.

Such a clause would give Sabathia the chance for another monster payday in free agency at age 31 -- and provides him with an escape if he finds the New York experience unappealing.

Since players are more and more exercising their opt-outs, I can imagine the Yankees feeling a little more comfortable with the deal. Unless CC totally breaks down in the first three years, the probability is high that he seeks free agency again in a better market for pitchers.

Oriole Central likes the signing of Cesar Izturis to play shortstop:

Caesar Izturis signed_a_2_year_deal_with_the_O's_today. Which is ok. I'd rather have him than Adam Everrett or Khalil Greene. Izturis is solidly medicore, which is a massive upgrade over the parade of jokers the O's trotted out at short last season.

I didn't realize he was just 28. For some reason I thought he was older. Anyways, it elimates the prospect of Brandon Fahey as starting shortstop so its a good deal.

R.J. Anderson likes the CC Sabathia deal:

Here's the scary thing: even if Sabathia drops 1 WAR per season, he'd still be worth about 129 million over the next seven seasons. That means if Sabathia loses an arm he'd only be overpaid by ~30ish million, and to the Yankees, who are opening a new park, have their own regional sports network, and have contracts coming off of the books, that's not overpaying by much at all.

The Yankees are paying for this with Giambi's contract and part of Mussina's. That still leaves them the rest of Mike's contract, Abreu's and Pettitte's to sign another high quality starter, and even have room for a bat.

According to ESPN, CC Sabathia and the Yankees reached an agreement Tuesday night on a seven-year, $160 million contract. That's more years, but fewer dollars per year than the Yankees original offer. For all we know at the moment, there was an option year in the original deal that became guaranteed. More in a while (I picked a bad morning to oversleep), but my big question is, were the Yankees bidding against themselves?

Brian Cashman flew to San Francisco for another meeting with CC Sabathia, and his wife. Maybe Brian flies back with a signed contract!

Hat tip, RAB.

The Dodgers sign Mark Loretta. With a .361 career OBA and around .350 the last two years, he'll provide a decent amount of offense in a pinch.

It looks like closer day at the Winter Meetings as the Indians approach a deal for Kerry Wood:

The club has offered free agent Kerry Wood, the former Chicago Cubs starter-turned-reliever, a two-year contract, a person familiar with the deal told The Associated Press on Tuesday. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the sides are still working through details at the winter meetings in Las Vegas.

Wood, who has had numerous injury problems in the past, needs to pass a physical before the deal can be completed.

Wood's control returned in 2008, with his high strikeout and low walk totals making him an effective closer. Wood collected more saves than the entire Indians team last season. Jensen Lewis was the Tribe's most effective closer. Given his outstanding minor league numbers, I'm not sure why Cleveland isn't simply giving the job to him and spending the money elsewhere.

River Ave. Blues doubts the rumor that CC Sabathia turned down the Yankees offer:

Let me say this: Beware unconfirmed rumors. They are unconfirmed, obviously.

Second, it makes no sense -- none -- for Sabathia to reject the Yanks' offer. He loses all bargaining position in doing so, and the Giants, Angels or Brewers would have no reason to come close to the Yanks' generous offer. Even if he has no intention of signing with the Yanks, he is far better served to keep the Yanks' offer alive.

Correct. I can see him saying, "I want more money than that to play in New York," trying to get more money, but not walking away from the deal altogether.

The first big free agent names falls:

The Mets agreed to financial terms with free-agent closer Francisco Rodriguez at the winter meetings on Tuesday, signing the record-setting former Angel to a three-year, $37 million deal, sources told the Daily News.

GM Omar Minaya, speaking at the Bellagio, declined to confirm an agreement had been reached with the 26-year-old closer.

If true, this is a great deal for the Mets. It's prefectly reasonable money for a closer, and if indeed K-Rod does blow up, the contract is short enough that it won't kill the payroll. On top of that, it should be fairly easy to insure. Minaya gets a quality closer without giving away anything but money.

On Rodriguez's side of the ledger, he'll be going into his age 30 season at the end of the deal. Three more years of quality closing and he'll do very well in his second round of free agency.

It appears that Derek Lowe is a very popular free agent:

The 35-yer-old Lowe has been pursued by about 10 teams, but it appears those two have been among the more aggressive for Lowe. The Red Sox and Mets are among interested teams discouraged by the price. An official with one team interested in Lowe said he was "shocked'' how high the bidding appears to be going.

He's a good pitcher who is a lot cheaper than CC. Ground ball pitchers tend to work in all ballparks, and I could see where he'd be especially useful in Philadelphia.

Hat tip, Phillies Nation.

Francisco Rodriguez came to the free agent market a year too late:

Remember that three-year, $34-million offer closer Francisco Rodriguez rejected from the Angels in 2007? It's looking pretty good now.

Rodriguez was hoping to cash in on his major league-record 62-save season with a five-year, $75-million deal, but the free-agent right-hander left the Bellagio hotel in Las Vegas on Monday with only one firm offer, from the New York Mets, for a reported two years and $24 million.

It was just last year that Francisco Cordero pulled down a four-year, $46 million contract, and an old Mariano Rivera re-signed with the Yankees for three years, $45 million. K-Rod might have been off accepting arbitration and trying again next year.

In fact, a two-year contract might not be so bad. Rodriguez doesn't need to be a great closer the next couple of years, just a very good one. After all, he's still rather young. So, if after the 2010 season four or five teams are in need of a closer, he'll get his five-year deal. This is a moment in time where free agents may be better off with a short term deal so they can go for the really big money when the economy comes back.

Bill Shaikin wonders why the Dodgers haven't offered CC Sabathia a contract yet:

The Dodgers need an ace in the starting rotation, in the clubhouse and in the community. Sabathia dedicates himself to all three.

He wants to come home, to pitch in California, to play in the National League, although not so desperately that he'll sign a three-year contract when the Yankees have offered him six.

The Dodgers have been burned so often by Colletti's multiyear free-agent signings -- injuries to Jason Schmidt, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Bill Mueller, poor performances by Andruw Jones and Brett Tomko and the superfluousness of Juan Pierre -- that McCourt understandably is wary of the kind of proposal Sabathia would take seriously.

If the Dodgers can land Sabathia with a home town discount, they should jump at the chance. Their pitching staff isn't looking all that solid right now. If CC will go for three-years, $80 million, or even $90 million, how can a team ignore that?

The Nationals talk about trying to sign Teixeira, or other big free agents:

Speaking generally of the feedback the team has gotten from free agents, Bowden said, "Players recognize we have one of the finest ballparks in the game. They recognize we are located in the most powerful city in the world. They also know, if they come here, we may not be ready to win next year, but [ellipses] they also look at all the other pieces and the potential revenue and the young players coming, and say, 'This franchise is on the way up.'"

One Nationals official acknowledged the unlikelihood the team could land Teixeira--"I don't feel real good about our chances," he said--but added, "You can't win if you don't play."

I like the fact that the Nationals are at least in the game. Signing big name free agents is a great way to generate interest in the team, and Nationals really need that.

R.J. Anderson comments on the Dodgers possibly resigning Casey Blake:

The signing (or re-signing) is a bit surprising. For one, Blake is 35-years-old and the Dodgers at last check are still inthe National League, which to this point does not have the designated hitter. That means Blake will be 38 and a probable liability in the field come the end of this contract.

It seemed like last season the Dodgers were full of options at third base. Those disappeared rather quickly.

The Tigers are making moves to suggest they're about to sign Adam Everett. This would give them a glove man at short for the first time in a while.

Might Francisco Rodriguez agree to a two-year contract with the Mets to make more money in the future? Given this climate, I actually believe that's a good idea for many of the younger free agents.

Infield chatter makes the case against the Red Sox signing Mark Teixeira.

Only two players accepted arbitration, David Weathers and Darren Oliver. The other 22 are now up for grabs, including Manny Ramirez. Now that all the teams know where each free agent stands, maybe the market will heat up.

Lone Star Ball links to a story that Jason Varitek will reject arbitration. I'm a bit surprised at that, as I thought Jason would do better with the arbitrator than on the market. Maybe more teams need veteran leadership than I thought.

Via Bleeding Blue and Teal, Raul Ibanez will decline arbitration today. Blue and Teal is looking forward to the draft picks:

It would greatly benefit Seattle if the Los Angeles Dodgers, Florida Marlins and/or Toronto Blue Jays would throw their names back into the Ibanez hat. All three have been connected to Raul this offseason, and represent the 17th, 18th and 20th picks in the draft, which is as good as Seattle could get considering the first 16 picks are protected.

The Twins broke off talks with Casey Blake. La Velle E. Neal explores the possibilities on the left side for Minnesota.

I'm not a big Casey Blake fan, so I see this as a positive for the Twins.

Via BBTF, the Athletics are no long interested in Rafael Furcal:

The A's abruptly pulled out of the Rafael Furcal sweepstakes Friday after the free-agent shortstop rejected their four-year contract offer.

A frustrated Furcal could not be reached for comment. :-)

The A's now appear to be focusing on a big bat. However, they would be open to Furcal if he comes back and asks for a smaller contract.

The latest rumor to emerge has the Tigers interested in signing Kerry Wood to a two-year contract.

And after not offering Edgar Renteria arbitration (and watching him with the Giants), apparently figuring out that they're better off pursuing Adam Everett in free agency rather than haggling over Jack Wilson's salary, while possibly closing in on a deal for Gerald Laird - all of which could save some Detroit some money - maybe the Tigers now know they can throw some money at a ninth-inning stud.

Of course, if this happens, Kerry becomes the favorite to win the Masters. :-)

Only Baseball Matters disagrees with Keith Law over the Renteria signing.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Edgar Renteria signed with the Giants, two-years, $18.5 million. It's his fifth team in six years. He's also getting just a slight pay raise, as his Red Sox contract paid him $36 million over four years.

I never know what the Giants are doing. This makes them younger, simply because Vizquel was so old. Renteria, however, has an OPS+ under 100 in three of the last five seasons. He'll be better than Omar offensively, but the move doesn't improve the team that much.

Buster Olney pens an excellent post on the choices facing Manny Ramirez.

Executives around baseball wonder if that will change in the next few days, because they are having a difficult time envisioning how Ramirez would make more in salary in 2009 than if he accepted arbitration. He made $20 million last season -- although the present-day value was just a little more than $17 million -- and following a historic performance in which Ramirez hit .396 for the Dodgers in two months, driving in 53 runs in 53 games, his arbitration award would be breathtaking. Boras would be in position to set a new and stunning standard through that process, and could ask for A-Rod money.

But accepting arbitration would represent a staggering surrender for Ramirez, who had hoped for a nine-figure contract, and for Boras, who has been talking a deal for as long as six years for the 36-year-old outfielder. One year for $28 million is a long way from 4 years, $100 million, or six years, $150 million. Some friends of Ramirez do not believe that he will allow Boras to take arbitration, as tempting as it may be. "This is not going to be an easy time for Scott," a friend of Ramirez said.

Manny is at an age where taking a big one-year deal carries the risk of a career downturn shutting him out from ever getting a second huge multi-year deal. It's also possible, however, that a series of one-year deals makes Manny much more money that he would get in a long term contract. If he's always playing for the next contract, he might put up very impressive numbers every year, and his price might keep going up.

The Boston Globe reports two teams made an offer to Derek Lowe. One is the Phillies, and one is a team other than the Yankees or Red Sox. That hot stove pilot is finally flickering back to life.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks at the reasons for letting Pat Burrell leave versus re-signing the leftfielder. Defense plays a big role in the discussion.

Russell Branyan agrees to a one-year contract with the Seattle Mariners. He's not likely to play much third base with Adrian Beltre still under contract, but he does provide some insurance if Beltre does not recover quickly enough from his surgery.

Branyan is a modern Rob Deer. He draws walks and his hits go a long way, but the hits don't come that often. I'm guessing he gets used mostly as a first baseman or designated hitter.

Correction: Fixed link.

The San Francisco Giants inked Bobby Howry to a one-year contract. After four stellar seasons, Howry was down in 2008. At age seasonal age 35 in 2009, Howry may be declining for real. The bet by the Giants, that he bounces back, however, is worth the money.

Howry's home runs and hits allowed increased in 2008, causing his poor season. His strikeouts didn't dip that much, so there a return to form, especially in a good park for pitchers is not out of the question.

It appears the Braves are willing to offer A.J. Burnett a five-year deal. They certainly aren't wasting time filling in the holes in their pitching staff. Does it stop if they land Burnett, or do they try to trade for Peavy as well?

Dave Sheinin notes that if Tony Reagins is telling the truth about Teixeira remaining the Angels number one target, the chances of the Yankees signing Sabathia go up.

I suspect Reagins is telling the truth, which would be an important distinction -- because it would seem to signal a Sabathia-to-the-Yankees signing is imminent. To this point, the Angels were widely viewed as Sabathia's best opportunity to bridge the gap between the mega-offer he reportedly received from the Yankees (six years, $140 million) and the lesser one he received from the Brewers (six years, $100 million), while also satisfying his preference for playing on the west coast.

If the Angels are inclined to wait it out with Teixeira, rather than commit all those dollars to a pitcher, there doesn't seem to be another option out there for Sabathia (whose agent has tried, unsuccessfully it seems, to involve the Dodgers and Giants). Given the ominous economic signs surrounding the game, I wouldn't be surprised if Sabathia -- perhaps grudgingly -- jumped on the Yankees' offer, before it disappeared.

He also gives odds on various teams signing Teixeira.

If you're a team like the Yankees that freed up a ton of payroll and are getting new revenues from a new stadium, this seems like a good year to go on a free agent binge. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be much bidding going on. Why not swoop in and take three or four big names? Maybe they can get Manny, Sheets and Burnett for short term big money and let them try again in a couple of seasons when the market is better.

Here's a roundup of the 24 players offered arbitration by the midnight EST deadline Tuesday morning.

Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell joined Bobby Abreu as good free agent outfielders not offered arbitration. All three get on base and have decent power, but are certainly on the downside of their careers. None plays defense that well.

With all three of them available, the supply of this type of player should keep a cap on the price of all three. Do you want Abreu, but he's asking too much? Go for Burrell. Adam Dunn gets signed by another team? Bobby Abreu is still available. This likely figured into the reason for not offering these players arbitration. Not only would an arbitrator likely keep their salaries high, the Yankees, Phillies and Diamondbacks have plenty of other options.

The question in my mind, now, will this drive down the price of Manny Ramirez. While Manny is better than these three, he's also a poor defender on the downside of his career. A team can afford to lose out on Manny and hire one of the other three and still have a good offensive player. Given that, and the cost of a draft pick, there's no reason to really fight over Ramirez.

Unlike the Yankees, the Dodgers and the Angels offered their big name free agents arbitration. The Red Sox offered arbitration to Jason Varitek, which surprised me a bit. Boston, however, expects Jason to sign elsewhere.

Correction: I misread the Varitek article. Boston expects Jason not to accept arbitration. Apologies.

The Brewers offered CC Sabathia arbitration. Given that the Yankees made an offer Milwaukee is unlikely to match, it was easy for them to go for the draft picks.

Mike Hampton will return to the Houston Astros, pending a physical. I'm not sure this really improves the Astros rotation. We don't know the money yet, but I assume Hampton's salary is low enough that it's worth the risk of him breaking down again.

The Yankees do not offer arbitration to any of their big name free agents, including Bobby Abreu. I have to agree with YFSF here:

I am surprised, and not in the pleasant way, that the Yanks are following this tack, especially in the case of Abreu. What's the best that can be said about these conservative moves? That they're fiscally responsible? Woo hoo!!! (Will ticket prices be going down then as well?) That they're saving money to throw at players who will require longer and riskier deals? That the Gerritt Cole experience was so traumatic, they felt it best to avoid the tempation of draft picks altogether?

I understand Pettitte and Giambi, but Abreu was worth the risk of arbitration. Even if Bobby accepted, the Yankees could then sign him at a reasonable price and trade him. If nothing else, the Yankees certainly have made a break with the past.

Update: River Ave. Blues has the transcript of Brian Cashman's statement. It comes down to the Yankees not thinking that Pettitte and Abreu not being worth the money an arbitrator would award. They are not adverse to re-signing either.

The Toronto Blue Jays offered A.J. Burnett arbitration. The Jays want to keep Burnett, and this drives up his price to other teams by costing them draft picks if they sign the pitcher.

I'll be interested to see if Burnett accepts. If so, it may signal that players think that this winter is a buyer's market for free agents and he might want to try again next season.

Craig Calcaterra looks at how the Angels might use their mastery of fast food negotiating tactics to lure CC Sabathia to Anaheim.

River Ave. Blues notes that Andy Pettitte talking to the Dodgers complicated the Yankees decision to offer the left-hander arbitration:

Monday, you see, is MLB's arbitration deadline. By the end of the day, the Yanks must decide whether or not to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte. This is a rather complicated decision, and it could play itself out in a variety of scenarios.

The easiest option -- and perhaps the most beneficial to the Yanks -- would be to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte and hope that he heads to Los Angeles. As Mike noted earlier this week, the Yanks would land the 17th slot in the draft and a supplemental pick as well. But because the Dodgers would be giving up a fairly coveted spot, they may not be so keen to sign Pettitte if the Yanks offer arbitration.

Of course, if the Yankees do offer Andy arbitration, he may accept the offer, and New York ends up spending more than they wanted on Andy.

In general, it was a very good move for Pettitte to at least speak with the Dodgers. He held no leverage against New York until he did so.

The Baltimore Orioles are in the mix for A.J. Burnett:

"There is sincere and mutual interest (with the Orioles)," Braunecker is quoted as saying. "We're not here to waste people's time or our time. We don't need to create a false market for A.J. Burnett."

With Burnett's injury history, he may be perceived to be a cheaper option than Sabathia. That may actually push his value up, as more teams are willing to chase him.

Matt Cerrone comments on the latest rumors about the Mets pursuit of starting pitching:

...wait, what...why...i can accept not wanting to give lowe a five-year deal, assuming that is what it will take to get him...but to be bullied out of the bidding, because the big, bad Red Sox and Yankees are in the mix, well that's just sad...and i hope it is not true...

Indeed. With a new stadium providing a higher revenue stream, the Mets should be right in the mix with the big guns from the American League.

Giants Win sticks up for Barry Bonds as a player who helped the Giants win. The article that sets him off is an article that is down on the Giants signing Manny Ramirez due to the way Manny left Boston.

Mark Teixeira would like to be signed by Christmas. He probably wants whatever bonus comes with the new contract taxed this year.

Studes points out this post at Brew Crew Ball showing the difference between the Yankees offer and the Brewers offer to CC Sabathia is a lot less than $40 million. That's probably another reason the Yankees didn't incrementally bid up the price.

In the post, Jeff Sackmann also makes the point that a shorter time frame on the contract might make Sabathia more money in the long run. It's a good point, and one that seems to be ignored by players these days.

The other day the Cardinals said signing lefty relievers was their priority, and now it appears Trever Miller is in the fold. This would be Miller's seventh team and ninth stint with a different team. Miller did do a good job as a lefty specialist in 2008, holding left-handed batters to a .209 BA. He walked a high number, however, as lefties posted a .305 OBA. Still, those are good numbers and what teams look for in that very specialized position.

The Yankees are not ruling out any free agent signings, therefore, they must be interested in Teixeira, too.

"Our focus is on our pitching, but that doesn't mean we're closed-minded," Cashman said. "If the pitching doesn't go the way we want it, we'll have to re-focus. We're going to be engaged on the entire free agent market. How it plays out, I can't predict."

It looks like the Boston and New York papers are trying to create a bidding war over the first baseman.

Tony Massaroti is making stuff up. He believes the Red Sox will offer Mark Teixeira the biggest contract in club history. Why?

When the Sox want something enough, they make sure they get it.

In the case of Teixeira, rest assured that the Sox want him, no matter what games are being paid by club officials. Publicly and privately, the Sox are saying nothing about their interest in Teixeira and playing dumb every time his name comes up. It's as sure a sign as any that they are preparing to go to extraordinary lengths. Last year, in the midst of the Johan Santana trade talks, the Sox were far more forthcoming about who and what they were willing to offer. When all was said and done, the Sox were not interested in acquiring Santana so much as they were interested in driving up the price for the rival Yankees; as it turned out, they kept Santana out of the Bronx altogether.

So the fact that the Red Sox aren't interested in Teixeira is a sure sign they are interested in Teixeira. An amazing bit of logic that. Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe hope Boston isn't interested in them either.

"CC, which team will you sign with?"

"Probably Boston. They haven't shown any interest in me, so I should be getting 10 years, $250 million!"

Yep, that's just the way it works.

Stan Kasten tries to roll back excitement on a potential Mark Teixeira deal for the Nationals.

The Cub Reporter rounds up news that Ryan Dempster will stay in Chicago at a very good price.

The Giants get the ball rolling:

Reliever Jeremy Affeldt became the first of 171 free agents to agree to a contract, striking an $8 million, two-year deal Monday with the San Francisco Giants.

He's put up two good years in a row playing in parks that favor the hitter. The money is right in line with Damaso Marte's contract, and Affeldt is younger and pitches more innings.

The Mets asked the agents for both Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes to call them before they sign with anyone else. They also appear to have at least talked about a contract with K-Rod.

Joel Sherman notes that the Mets are benefitting from the number of closers available on the free agent market:

Now the Mets do not like Hoffman's stuff, and if you were guessing where Wood would end up, then playing for fellow fireballing Texan Nolan Ryan's Rangers would be a good bet (he is the team president). But the definitive league-wide availability of Hoffman and Wood only further saturated the closer market. And only gave greater confidence to the Mets that they not only will find a closer this offseason, but find him via free agency, which is their preference because that would allow them to protect their farm system.

The market has become so saturated, in fact, that an AL official regularly in touch with the Mets executives said it was his perception the Mets will wait to see if supply-and-demand take holds and the price falls, especially for the two main free-agent closers, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. As Hardball previously has reported, the Mets' main targets this offseason are Fuentes and Derek Lowe.

Having options helps prevent teams from being held up by players.

The Dodgers withdrew their offer to Manny Ramirez:

According to the Dodgers' website, the team has pulled its initial offer to free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. What that means exactly remains to be seen because the team says it will continue to negotiate with him.

I find this a strange negotiating strategy. At this point, they'd be bidding against themselves. Until there is a better bid on the table, why withdraw the offer? I suppose it's possible that no other team bids for Manny, and then the Dodgers come back with a lower offer, but the probability of that is pretty low.

The Cardinals first priority is signing left-handed relievers.

Richard Griffin wonders if the large number of second tier free agents, combined with the poor economy, will push prices down:

The fact of the matter is that the effects of the recession will be felt by the majority of the 171 free agents (almost seven full team rosters) that have now placed themselves on the open market. It would not be surprising to quietly see the Jays and many others of their financial ilk enter the New Year without inking any major free agents, waiting into mid-January for the panic among the multitude of remaining players to set in when bargains can be had.

It might be a good winter for free agents to take one or two guaranteed seasons, instead of holding out; they can then explore free agency again when the world economy has had a chance to rebound.

Even at the high end, teams are unlikely to go overboard. If you don't get Sabathia, you can alway land Sheets, Dempster or Lowe, or trade for Jake Peavy.

The Yankees open the bidding on CC Sabathia:

The Yankees have officially tendered an offer to CC Sabathia, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.

Sabathia, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner, split last season between the Indians and Brewers (17-10 2.70).

The Yankees offered a six-year deal worth more than $137.5 million, Olney reports.

Let's call in $140 million, or $23 million per year. That seems to be a good place to start. He's worth more than that per year, but teams may not wish to go that far out in terms of seasons.

Nick Swisher and CC Sabathia are friends.

Dave Cameron, in calculating a value for CC Sabathia, sets the price for buying a free agent at $5.5 million per win. That puts the price of Sabathia somewhere between $27 million and $30 million per year, depending on the length of the contract.

Dave Sheinin discusses how the Nationals might convince Mark Teixeira to sign with Washington:

"Mark, you are a once-in-a-lifetime player, especially to a franchise like ours. The Nationals see you as the foundation, someone with deep local ties who could be the face of our franchise for the next [six/eight/ten] years. We will build this team around you, and when we're ready to win it all - and we're closer than people think - you will have been part something truly special.

"Nowhere else in baseball can give you what you can get here, Mark. We're not only just down the road from your hometown. We're also the nation's capital. You'll have congressmen and Supreme Court justices watching you nightly. You might be a regular guest at the White House, given the President-Elect's love of sports.

"Face it: You can never own L.A., or Boston - at least not as long as Kobe and Tom Brady are alive. But you can own this town, Mark. It yours if you want it."

The Nationals minor league teams did well, and that's often a precursor to major league improvement.

Both the Mets and Yankees are planning on pursuing CC Sabathia. Imagine having to face Santana and Sabathia on consecutive days!

Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks could not reach an agreement. Johnson becomes a free agent and issues a statement to his Arizona fans.

Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement. The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context. Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement.

Consequently, Randy is forced to file for free agency and consider all opportunities to further his career. He hopes to find a team where he can continue to pitch at a high level and contribute to another World Championship.

Randy and his family live in Arizona and he will always be a Diamondback at heart. Most of all, Randy will miss the overwhelming support the fans have shown him throughout the years. He wishes the Diamondbacks great success in 2009 and beyond."

I wonder if a team will sign him to a contract. He pitched well at times in 2008 but poorly at others. He still strikes out a high number of batters. Maybe he could be a Sunday pitcher for some club to keep his starts low.

Apparently, not to the Dodgers.

David Ortiz spoke on the radio about Manny Ramirez, and says lots of good things about his ex-teammate. He was also asked if Manny quit on the team:

"Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings, you know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else.

"I'll tell you one thing, I'm the kind of guy that I look at the positive side of everything and Manny, I get to learn a lot of things from Manny. Manny's one of the guys that worked hard every day to have some really good performances out there, and I never saw Manny not getting prepared to play. . . now he wasn't happy here, everybody knows that. And when a relationship get to the point, you gotta make a move just like we did, and you go from there."

Also, via Deadspin, the Nationals will bid for Ramirez.

The Padres withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman. He came as close a one can imagine to being a life-long Padre, having pitched 28 games for the Marlins in 1993 before joining San Diego. At age 40, he posted his highest ERA since 1995, but still strikes out batters at a high rate and keeps his walks low. It was home runs that did him in in 2008. He'll improve some team's bullpen in 2009.

Al's Ramblings puts together a team of minor league free agents. It's not a great team, but it shows what clubs can pick up off the scrap heap.

It looks like the Washington Nationals are interested in Mark Teixeira. If they sign him they might double their run production! :-)

LaTroy Hawkins signed a one-year contract with the Houston Astros. Hawkins pitched 21 outstanding innings for the Astros with lots of strikeouts and few walks. He'll try to do that over a full season for Houston.

Jon Weisman offers his thoughts on the Dodgers signing Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia or doing nothing spectacular.

I can't believe the Dodgers offered Manny Ramirez just $45 million for two years. I could see offering that average salary for five years, but for that short a term, I would have thought the Dodgers would bring the average a lot closer to A-Rod's $27.5 million. Hat tip to The Big Lead, which thinks the Dodgers may be bidding against themselves.

One problem with Manny sticking with the Dodgers is that he can't really generate that much more revenue for them. They already draw very good crowds. The team that should go overboard to sign Ramirez is the Tampa Bay Rays. Think about it. The Red Sox and Yankees are going to reload, making the AL East that much tougher to win. The Rays should get a boost in attendance with their AL championship, but imagine putting Manny in leftfield. They might draw 20,000 more per game! And if the Rays manage to net just $40 per person coming into the park, 20,000 * 81 * 40 is about $64 million in increased revenue. They could offer Manny $60 million over two years and still make a tidy profit. On top of that, Manny plays close to home and gets to torment the Red Sox. Everyone wins!

Ned Colletti says he made Manny Ramirez an offer. The Dodgers would make him the second highest paid player behind A-Rod. We don't know the length or actual dollar amount, but if this is where the bidding starts, we might see Manny make a higher average salary than Rodriguez over a shorter period of time.

The Dodgers declined the option on Brad Penny, saving $6.75 million dollars. With Lowe likely gone as well, this is going to be a very different Dodgers rotation in 2009.

Player Agents are already taking a potential tax increase into account as they negotiate for their clients:

Obama's proposal would increase federal income tax on families earning more than $250,000 annually, money that would help finance a decrease for workers and families earning less than $200,000. It's also possible more income might be subject to the Social Security tax.

Next year's major league minimum is $400,000. Agent Scott Boras, negotiating eight- and possibly nine-figure deals for free agents Manny Ramirez [stats] and Mark Teixeira, already has thought about the possibility of asking for larger signing bonuses payable this year in some of his contracts.

"There's some consideration to be had with the impact of the election," he said.

This could turn out to be a very busy last week of December. I'm also interested to see how big teams are willing to go bonuses. Let's say the market determines Mark Teixeira is worth a total of $100 million over a five year contract. Does a team give him a $20 million dollar bonus and pay him $16 million over the last five years of his contract? That would save Mark close to $1 million in taxes.

Or do teams just up the value of the contract? Paying him 1.7 million more per year covers the increase in taxes, giving him the same take home pay. So watch to see if contracts signed before the end of the year are structured differently than contracts signed after the first of the year, and if later signing free agents appear to be making more money than early signing free agents.

To no one's surprise, the Yankees declined to pick up the options on Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano.

Giambi will receive a $5 million buyout rather than a $22 million salary next season, completing his $120 million, seven-year contract. Pavano gets a $1.95 million buyout instead of a $13 million salary, finishing his $39.95 million deal.

That gives the Yankees $28 million to spend on new free agents. It's enough to land Mark Teixeira and part of a pitcher.

If you are looking for the complete Elias Rankings, the New York Post published them in the linked article.

A.J. Burnett opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays. He should receive a nice raise. However, he's unclear about when to opt out of a contract. Making the announcement in the middle of a World Series game gets one lots of attention. Opting out in the middle of a presidential election and few are going to notice.

The Diamondbacks prefer to find a new second baseman rather than move Mark Reynolds off third base:

"There are more choices available at second base," Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "To go get a third baseman, you assume the Reynolds move would go well. It probably would, but all things equal, we would prefer him to play third base. As we've looked around, there are more candidates to play second base."

Byrnes said the team isn't going to discriminate based on age or experience, noting that either a veteran or a prospect could work.

Looking at Win Shares for second baseman, it will tough to improve on Hudson. All the players with higher win shares at the position are locked up. Improving the DBacks offense will need to come from a different position.

The Milwaukee Brewers offered CC Sabathia a contract. We don't know how much, but you can bet it would make Sabathia a very rich man.

River Ave. Blues makes the case for the Yankees offering arbitration to Ivan Rodgriuez. If the worst that happens is the Yankees wind up with Pudge as their backup catcher, it's not so bad. Given, however, the obvious dislike between Ivan and the Yankees after they acquired him, I doubt Rodriguez would accept.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking at free agents to plug holes in their squad:

This year might be a little different for General Manager Josh Byrnes, who will head to Dana Point, Calif., for next week's meetings. The biggest reason could be the Diamondbacks' willingness to use free agency as a way to plug their holes.

"Unlike the previous three off-seasons, I think we're maybe a little bit more with an eye on free agency, obviously at the right cost," Byrnes said.

How about Manny Ramirez? For two years in a row, the Diamondbacks were a good team without enough offense. Manny gives them a huge boost. Josh Byrnes, coming from the Red Sox, knows Manny. That may be both a positive and a negative. It seems if Arizona really wants to make a push for the pennant, they can hope that the youngsters finally mature, or they can add a big bat in the outfield. Would short term, big money for Manny be worth it?

Ken Griffey's agent says Junior is open to returning to the Seattle Mariners.

His agent, Brian Goldberg, told The Times that the Mariners are among the teams Griffey would consider playing for in 2009. He was drafted No. 1 overall by the Mariners in 1987 and played for them from 1989 until orchestrating a trade to Cincinnati after the 1999 season.

"It's no secret Junior has a special relationship with the people in Seattle from the ownership and front office all the way down to the fans and business people in town," Goldberg said in a phone interview.

"He's totally open-minded to talking to them, I'm sure. He'd be open to discuss anything with them. However, he owes it to himself to see what else is out there."

I think it's going to come down to what team wants Griffey, not where Griffey wants to play. His seasonal age for 2009 will be 39. He's coming off another surgery. Even with a repaired knee, he's more likely to decline than improve.

Seattle seems to be a perfect fit for Ken. It will be like Ruth returning to Boston, Mays to New York and Aaron to Milwaukee at the end of their careers. The squad won't be that good, but getting to see Junior will keep the fans interested until the front office reworks the team.

The Milwaukee Brewers will make an effort to keep CC Sabathia:

"We're prepared to do something with him here very shortly. He'll probably be getting ready to file for free agency but I don't expect an answer real soon," general manager Doug Melvin said Thursday.

Good. I bet CC really likes pitching in the National League. The Brewers made the playoffs, which adds revenue (even if they only played two home games in the post season). Season ticket sales likely will be up next year, and it's rare that a post-season team doesn't raise their ticket prices. We'll see how much they can afford.

Jason Varitek filed for free agency on Thursday. The Red Sox don't appear to have many options for replacing Jason:

Catching is the Sox' biggest question mark. No minor leaguer are ready and there is little help in the free agent market.The Sox could try to sign Varitek to a short-term deal or trade for a young catcher, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden of the Rangers and Kelly Shoppach of the Indians (formerly of the Sox) the most frequently mentioned. Saltalamacchia might be destined to play a position other than catcher, given his lack of defensive skills. And any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.

Talent deficits tend to take care of themselves eventually as teams work on developing and paying for those rare skills. Will Jason be open to a short-term contract while the Red Sox develop a replacement?

Arn Tellem speaks about Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi.

Tellem said the story that Mussina was planning to make a decision by the end of the week is untrue. Tellem is going to visit Mussina in Montoursville on Friday so they can talk. But he doesn't necessarily expect Moose to give him a decision at that point. He'll file for free agency regardless, and Tellem said he wouldn't be surprised if Moose wants more time to think it over.

As for Giambi, he said the Big G's first choice by far is to stay with the Yankees and, as far as he knows, that door hasn't been closed. Giambi wants to work something out and so that's what they're exploring first.

I'm guessing the Yankees are more open to Mussina returning than Giambi at this point. If the Yankees can clear their plate of the DH types on the team, it would be okay for Jason to return in that capacity. New York, however, needs to move away from having three or four hitters best suited for duty only as a batter.

Correction: Fixed typo in Tellem's first name.

The Mark Ellis signing seems to be generating a bit of controversy:

Or, was his surgery so risky that this is the best he could do? Why in the world would he not let the market dictate how much his surgery cost him? At the very least, he could have told the A's: "Whatever the market bears, I'll take 1 year off and 1MM per year off". To do what he did was simply irresponsible to the player market, and the MLBPA must be having a fit right now. As are all other middle infielders.

The only question is if the other 29 GMs are upset at not having a crack at Mark Ellis, or elated that Billy Beane could have managed to set the market so low for players of Ellis' high caliber.

We sometimes forget that to some people, there are things more important than money.

"I know it wasn't a very good year for anyone in the organization, myself included," Ellis said. "But I'm very proud to be a part of this organization and I'm excited about things here -- not to sound like a total cheeseball, but you see what the Rays have done this year and what the Rockies did last year, and it's not out of line to think we can compete and do well soon.

"We have a lot of young pitchers on our staff, but they've got the stuff to be pretty good. Look how quickly things snowballed for Tampa Bay."

Ellis likes it in Oakland, he likes playing for this team, and he's on the downside of his career coming off a shoulder injury. All of that was obviously worth a few million dollars to him.

Update: Beyond the Boxscore agrees with Tom Tango. I assume that Beane and Ellis must have some information we don't. Beane is in the habit of obtaining players when their value is down, not screwing them out of money.

Mark Ellis is on the verge of signing a long term contract that will keep him in Oakland. Frankly, this surprises me. His 2009 seasonal age is 32. While he's been a productive player, I'd have to believe his best years are behind him. His inconsistent batting records bother me, too.

Now, it could be his price for staying is pretty low, but I doubt it's going to be lower than some 22 year old rookie. I think it says something about Oakland that they haven't developed a replacement for Ellis by now.

Manny Ramirez is at least honest about his free agent aspirations:

"I want to see who is the highest bidder," he said, making clear that he had no pre-bidding favorites besides those with deep pockets.

...

Whether Manny will be around to let Dodgers fans see him perform next season remains to be seen, though he did give a clue what it would take to keep him. Asked for a dollar amount, Ramirez smiled and said, "The sky's the limit."

Greg Maddux gives Manny a pretty good endorsement in the article as well. I suspect Manny will get between $25 million and $30 million a year, but I also suspect teams won't want to go long term with him. If a team signs him through age 40, they'll have him around for the 600 HR milestone, and possibly passing Mays at 660. I'll predict the total cost of his contract will be around $120 million, either $30 million for four years or $25 million for five years.

If Manny is willing to go shorter term, I can believe a team would be willing to go $35 million a year for two years, with options for more if Manny continues to play well. That's what I would do if I were a GM. Ramirez does wear out his welcome. Short term with options protects a team from being stuck with him when that happens.

Update: For a different take, see J.C. Bradbury. Bradbury, however, is figuring what Manny is worth, as opposed to how much a GM will be willing to pay. For example, I could see where Manny takes the Giants back to Barryland. With their pitching staff, Ramirez's offense could make a huge difference in a weak division. For a team that hasn't won the World Series since 1954, that might be worth a really large short-term contract. Plus, Sabean likes to give money to old vets.

J.C. Bradbury puts a price on A.J. Burnett, and comes down in favor of Burnett accepting the Jays offer.

It's possible that Burnett may be able to squeeze some more cash out of another franchise, but it's an awful risk to take. I really can't see another team offering more than what the Jays have supposedly put on the table. And this is from the guy who typically defends high salaries that most think are outrageous.

In three years with the Jays, Burnett made 80 of a possible 102 starts (if you figure 34 a year). His ERAs are good but not great. His strikeout numbers are extremely good, however. So teams are looking a high K pitcher who is available 80% of the time and hasn't turned his high K rate into a great ERA. If I were a GM, I'd try to sign him to a two or three year deal with two or three options after that.

The Tao of Dave Stieb now believes A.J. Burnett will opt out of his contract with the Blue Jays. With luck, he'll announce in it in the middle of the last game of the World Series. :-)

Ben Sheets bid farewell to his teammates after the Brewers were eliminated today. He doesn't expect Milwaukee to sign him as a free agent.

Jeff at Lookout Landing seems a bit upset that the Cardinals are going to extend Kyle Lohse's contract by four years. The rumor is for $48 million, or $12 million per year:

Kyle Lohse is the same pitcher he's always been. Nothing's different about the way he pitches. He gets a couple more groundballs now, but those come at the expense of infield pop-ups, and he just posted the lowest swinging strike rate of his life despite having spent the majority of his career in the tougher league. He turns 30 this weekend.

Stupid. Kyle Lohse is a #4 starter being paid like someone way better than that, and while he may not be as thoroughly unlikable as Carlos Silva, his contract is likely to be almost as much of a problem down the road. If not immediately.

I don't know. That seems to be the going rate for a third or fourth starter these days. He seems well suited to Busch Stadium, so why not keep him around for a few years?

Update: Lohse's contract comes in at $41 million, perfectly reasonable given the state of the game.

For a media that crucified Barry Bonds over the last few years, they sure are anxious for a team to sign him. Hideki Matsui may need surgery on his knee, and this quote by Cashman is the latest adding to the bonds hysteria:

"I would say any rampant speculation on us involving a player of that magnitude would be extremely premature," Cashman said. "I would caution everybody to not misunderstand that since I'm not saying no to it, that that means, `Oh my gosh, that that might be happening down the line.' It's not something we're focused on at this point. We're focused on getting Hideki Matsui back rather than, you know, what we're going to do if he's not back."

According to his agent, Barry Bonds is willing to essentially play for free, but no one is interested.

Update: It seems Barry Bonds's agent never called the Royals.

I have to agree with Childs Walker:

I hope some club signs Barry Bonds this summer. And I hope he leads that team to the playoffs with a fusillade of walks and 450-foot homers.

I don't wish for this because I have any rooting interest in Bonds. Whether he never homers again or hits 50 more, my opinion of him won't change.

No, what I'm rooting for is the unconventional, a general manager who doesn't give a hoot about disapproving scrutiny as long as Bonds can help his team win. If we're going to create entertainment markets in which we reward those who win at all costs, then by Job, I want some executive to stick his neck out and make this move.

Bud Selig stated publicly that he's not stopping any team from signing Bonds. Someone should take him up on the offer.

There's word that Scott Boras is looking for a five-year, $60 million contract for Oliver Perez.

...my initial reaction is to laugh in boras's face...however, who knows...i mean, i can see perez going the way of Gil Meche, but also see him holding out and settling for a short-term deal like Kyle Lohse

Perez is exactly the type of player who's stats are so volatile that it's tough to put a number on him. He's the perfect candidate for a short term guarantee with lots of club option years. If I were a GM, I'd be willing to sign him to a one-year, $12 million deal with club options that go up by $2 million every year. If he pitches well, he keeps getting renewed. If he tanks, he becomes a free agent again. That way, he always has an incentive to pitch well.

With the Athletics tied for first place in the AL West, Scott Ostler thinks the A's should sign both Frank Thomas and Barry Bonds:

What if Beane & Co. decide to switch gears and make a run at the playoffs?

That would be gutsy. And that's where Thomas and perhaps Bonds might enter the picture.

The A's lead the major leagues in not hitting home runs. They've hit seven, and going 12-8 with seven taters is kind of smoke and mirror-ish. If the A's decide to go legit, they need someone who can hit 20 home runs.

The home run is nice, but it's possible the Athletics can win by flooding the base paths. I do like the idea of signing at least one of them. Thomas may not be happy with limited playing time against lefties, but signing both gives the Athletics insurance if one gets hurt. It's something the team should seriously consider.

Kyle Lohse finally gets a job.

Finally, Lohse's long nightmare is over because, as speculated yesterday, he's signed a one-year contract with the pitching thin Cardinals. There's no quotes from him about this yet, but if I had to guess it would be something along the lines of, "Sweet, Jesus! Finally! Boras is so fricking fired for putting me through this!"

I can see Lohse doing well for the Cardinals. His walk total was good in 2007, and he'll being playing in a much friendlier park for pitchers. If the Cardinals hitters can give him some run support, he might end up at .500.

Notsellingjeans at Athletics Nation wonders who will be the first player the Athletics sign to a $100 million contract. His bet is Justin Upton.

*If we look at some of the most successful marquee free agent signings of the past 15 years - Barry Bonds' first deal with the Giants, Vlad's deal with the Angels, and even, I would argue, A-Rod's first deal with the Rangers (which would have been even better if the team hadn't outbid themselves by $50MM), they have a common theme - position players on the good side of age 28. That's part of why the list I made above focuses on position players, and especially youth.

*Using that criterion, my personal endorsement for the A's first $100MM splurge is...Justin Upton, assuming he reaches free agency in 2014. In fact, this could double that investment, requiring something like 9 years and $200 million. Yes, I am advocating that for the A's, and no, I'm not nuts.

We'll find out in six years!

Sports Hub LA looks at the centerfield situation for both the Dodgers and Angels.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford would like Barry Bonds to join the Rays:

"C'mon,'' B.J. Upton said, "it's Barry.''

Two-time All-Star Carl Crawford said Bonds could be a good addition to the team's lineup, despite whatever issues, and attention, might follow him.

"If they are really serious about it, I'm pretty sure we can adjust to it,'' Crawford said before Monday's workout. "It's Barry Bonds - who wouldn't want to have him on their team?

This is one of those situations where there's no such thing as negative publicity. Yes, the Rays are trying to build a young team, but Barry in the lineup would increase attendance, and possibly improve the team enough that they get a taste of competing this season. For one year, I don't see a lot of downside to Tampa signing Bonds.

Tony La Russa wanted Barry Bonds to hit behind Albert Pujols:

"When you look at somebody dangerous to hit behind Albert, Barry was the guy I thought of," La Russa acknowledged before Sunday's workout. "For whatever reason, at the general manager or the ownership level, they didn't agree."

La Russa said he consulted his coaching staff before making the recommendation and received a positive response from some, but not all.

Any intrigue surrounding the possibility evaporated when Mozeliak concurred with the owners that signing Bonds would run counter to the club's stated commitment this season to younger players.

"It became moot as soon as I raised it and they said no," La Russa said.

Mozeliak confirmed discussing the matter as well as underscoring his lack of enthusiasm for the idea.

"Tony and I discussed it. I never got the feeling this was something he wanted to push for. He had some interest in it," Mozeliak said. "To me, to bring in somebody as protection in case something happened is a very different equation."

La Russa has a history of tolerating players accused of using steroids. I'm sure Bonds would have had a positive effect on Rick Ankiel. :-)

However, Tony is right. Pujols and Bonds back-to-back would give the Cardinals a scary offense. If this was a team that needed one piece to be able to compete, it would be a great signing. Given their pitching woes, however, that's not likely to happen.

Last week we heard Bartolo Colon was signing with the White Sox. Today, he agreed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

Empyreal Environs ponders the thought of Schilling and Colon in the same clubhouse:

Terry Francona, who signed a three-year extension today, had some concerns about both Schilling and Colon in the same clubhouse. "Wouldn't that much mass potentially warp the fabric of the space-time continuum?"

Manny Ramirez is in the last year of his Red Sox contract, although Boston holds two option years:

"I want to stay here, but it's up to them if they want to bring me," he said. "But if they don't want to bring me back, that's fine. I know I'll be a free agent after '08 so that's another thing that I'm looking forward (to)."

The slugging left fielder is in the last year of an eight-year contract. Beyond that, the team has options for the next two seasons at $20 million each.

"It's up to them to say, `OK, we're going take (the option). It's not up to me to go into the office and demand a four-year deal, whatever," the 35-year-old Ramirez said. " No, I'm going come here to play the game, finish my year. If they want me to come back, I'll come back."

Boston is in an interesting situation. Manny is at the age when his skill are more likely to diminish, so he may very well not be worth $20 million next year. His skills, however, might still be so good that losing him would hurt the team. Might the Red Sox let him go as a free agent, then try to sign him at a lower price if that's what the market sets? If that happens, would Manny even bother dealing with Boston?

Hal McCoy is reporting the Cincinnati Reds signed Josh Fogg to a one-year, $1 million contract. Red Reporter doesn't think too much of the deal. For one million, they get a pitcher who is used to a launching pad. Seems like a no lose situation. If he has a good year, they got a pitcher cheap. If he pitches poorly, it's only a $1 million out the door.

The Pirates sign Byung-Hyun Kim to a major league contract. They're looking to use him as a reliever, although I don't see any way this improves the team. I suppose putting Kim on the mound is better than having to forfeit games because there's no one else to send out to be shelled. Kim has not pitched well since the 2003 season.

It looks like Bartolo Colon will get a chance to pitch for the White Sox.

Update: Ozzie Guillen says this report is not true. Stay tuned.

The Twins found a replacement for Johan Santana, Livan Hernandez:

Hernandez, who turns 33 on Feb. 20, will be the sole veteran in a rotation that likely will include no pitcher who is older than 26.

The Twins evidently value Hernandez's durability. Hernandez leads the majors in innings pitched since 2003, and has exceeded 200 innings in every season since 2000.

Only three major-league pitchers have made 30 or more starts in each of the past 10 seasons -- Hernandez, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

However, Hernandez has spent his entire 12-year career in the National League, and some scouts and executives believe he is ill-suited to pitch in the more offensively oriented AL.

Hernandez gives up a lot of hits, something he's done throughout his career. He allows a lower than average percentage of ground balls and a higher than average percentage of line drives. In his three best seasons in recent memory, 2003-2005, Hernandez was very good with runners in scoring position. As a team, I wouldn't want to depend on that.

Most likely, Livan is in Minnesota to eat inning cheaply until the next set of young studs are ready.

Keith Foulke signed a major league contract with the Athletics. He'll be a setup man:

"I never considered myself a closer, I've always been a bullpen guy," he said. "Sometimes pitching in the seventh inning is more valuable than pitching in the ninth."

He's only getting $700,000, so it's a good risk for Oakland.

There are ninety free agents still available. It looks like teams are more willing to spend their money on youth rather than aging veterans:

More than a few agents these days grumble, always anonymously, that teams are flirting dangerously close to collusion. With revenues creeping above the $6 billion mark, agents point to the slow-moving free agent market as proof something is askew. Some agents are still trying to get over the shock and chagrin of the Theo Epstein and Larry Beinfest-inspired idea at last November's GM meetings to have clubs openly announce who is available for trade while detailing some of their offseason quests.

A more sober analysis calls for an honest appraisal of who remains unsigned. Some very useful veterans are still on the market, but it is no stretch to understand why teams would rather take a flier on upside than gamble on declining skills.

"It's an aggressive market now for outstanding payers, but for non-regulars and even some regulars, teams are looking within more often," said longtime agent Adam Katz, who still has veterans Sammy Sosa, Aaron Sele and Tony Batista unsigned. "Going with kids is one way to save money, and one result of that is that there are a lot of quality veterans out there now without a job."

The Twins are looking to sign Josh Fogg if the Santana deal goes through:

I don't mean to slight Fogg, but if you're a Twins fan, that can't be all that comforting. "Who cares if we lost Johan Santana? We're getting Josh Fogg!" It doesn't exactly keep you warm during those cold Minnesota winter nights. Though I suppose he'll come in handy should a dragon start terrorizing the Twin Cities.

In case the Twins haven't noticed, Josh Fogg isn't very good. He had a career year in 2007 and went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA.

Could the Phillies have signed a worst offensive third baseman?

Yesterday, on his first official day as a Phillie, Feliz smiled brightly at the memory of Snow's big night. After spending his career in what his former teammate called "the toughest place to hit," Feliz will play in a stadium with tempting power alleys.

"It's not an easy park to hit home runs," the Phillies' new third baseman said of his former home in San Francisco. "I wouldn't say it's easier to hit them here, but I hope this is better."

There's no doubt San Francisco hurt Feliz's home run power, but the road didn't help anything else. Feliz owns a .276 career OBA on the road, and hasn't had a season with a .300 OBA since 2004. It's not like he's a decent hitter with a great glove. He's a black hole of outs at third base.

Substituting Feliz for Dobbs knocks 0.1 runs off the Phillies offense per game.

Sox Machine discusses the pros and cons of the White Sox signing Octavio Dotel:

Pro: But speaking of the division, what if he ended up in Detroit? The Tigers have expressed interest in Dotel, and pitching is the one area in which they are vulnerable. The Sox might be smart to block the Tigers, since Mike Ilitch's wallet could easily absorb another injury-shortened year or two, so he could take the risk to reap the potential rewards.

Con: So Detroit would be in an even better position to compete with the Sox? Exactly.

Dotel's weakness is home runs allowed. That's a bad weakness for a White Sox pitcher, given their ballpark. But his good control mitigates that somewhat. Dotel wouldn't be a bad signing at all.

I'm not surprised the Rangers would take a flyer on Jason Jennings. I am a bit surprised they would immediately put him in the rotaiton.

He would join Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla as locks for the rotation. The Rangers would also like for Brandon McCarthy and Kason Gabbard to join them, but they could also be pushed by right-handers Luis Mendoza and Armando Galarraga and left-hander A.J. Murray.

Jennings has one good season under his belt, and he's coming off an injury. I'd rather see the Rangers leave the rotation wide open and see if some other youngsters can step up.

With Mike Cameron inked to a deal in Milwaukee, Brew Crew Ball jumps for joy.

If you can't tell, I'm ecstatic. Signing Cameron for five million bucks erases all the stupidity of the Estrada/Mota/Wise disaster, and more.

Buster Olney reports the Brewers reached an agreement with Mike Cameron.

Cameron will presumably play center field for the Brewers, who have reportedly spoken with Bill Hall, the team's center fielder last year, about moving to third base. If that happens, Ryan Braun would shift from third base to left field.

This makes good defensive sense. Braun was terrible at third in 2007, and Bill was pretty bad in centerfield.

The Mariners signed Miguel Cairo to a major league contract.

Cairo's signing follows Bavasi's declaration five weeks ago that Lopez must improve in 2008. Lopez struggled with focus last season and was eventually benched after signing a new, $6 million deal.

This is the third consecutive spring training that Lopez, 24, will have a veteran pushing him for his job. In 2006, Seattle signed 36-year-old Fernando Vina. Last spring, Rey Ordonez was in camp after years out of baseball. But those signings were both minor league deals with mere invitations to spring training.

Cairo now has a spot on Seattle's 40-man roster.

"We need improved offense at second base. ... Whether we get someone else or take Jose and make him better, we have to get better there," Bavasi said in late November.

Now that you've stopped laughing, compare Lopez to Cairo. If you are going to push Lopez, why not pick up a player who is actually better than Jose? Is Lopez really scared by a player ten years older who was never that good? Bavasi just wasted money and a roster spot on another unproductive player. Why didn't he sign Marcus Giles instead? At least Marcus could threaten to play the whole season at second.

Via Purple Row, Marcus Giles signs with the Colorado Rockies:

Rookie Jayson Nix has the inside shot at the Rockies second base job.

For insurance, however, the Rockies will bring big-league veteran Marcus Giles to spring training, the Rocky Mountain News has learned.

Giles agreed to terms of a non-guaranteed deal, but it won't be finalized until he passes a physical, which he will undergo in Denver next week. The Rockies decline to comment on contracts until after the physical is passed.

Nothing wrong with a little insurance.

Blez at Athletics Nation makes the case for Oakland signing Barry Bonds. The A's have lost the casual fan and may be losing the hardcore fan as well.

I think that ultimately what's happening is that the A's are going to realize how much their gate receipts will hurt this year. The hardcore might still come out on occasion to see some of these young guys and their progression towards greatness, but you probably have little to no chance of attracting casuals with the current crop of players in the current stadium. So why not sign Bonds? Not because you're "going for it" in 2008, but because it makes a lot of business sense. People love drama and intrigue and he will provide plenty of it. And I think someone else brought this up in Rubin Sierra's diary, but Bonds could also be flipped to a team needing a big bat at the deadline for more of those prized prospects.

There certainly is a huge fan base for Bonds in the Bay Area.

There's a rumor the Marlins will sign Jorge Cantu, and actually pay him more than the minimum. That's still probably too much for someone who doesn't get on base and whose power declined as he approached his prime.

The St. Louis Cardinals take a chance on Matt Clement:

Clement gets a $1.25 million salary this year and can earn an additional $5.25 million in performance bonuses, receiving the full amount if he pitches 200 innings.

The Cardinals have an $8.75 million option for 2009 with a $250,000 buyout. The option would increase to $9 million and the buyout $500,000 if Clement reaches 160 innings this season; $9.5 million and $1 million for 180 innings; and $10 million and $1.5 million for 200 innings.

The option would become $11 million and the buyout $2 million if Clement finishes in the top five in 2008 Cy Young Award balloting.

With Chris Carpenter a huge unknown, the Cardinals rotation looks every iffy for 2008. This signing does nothing to reduce the uncertainty.

Dayton Moore manages to praise Miguel Olivo:

"As I put the pieces in place," Moore said, "I looked at: One, we needed depth and strength at the catching position. This accomplishes that. Two, we needed a power, right-handed bat. This guy's the best available player in our minds currently available to us. In talking with Trey (Hillman), he is not against having one of his catchers DH in the right matchup."

What the Royals have are two right-handed catchers who don't get on base, but sometimes smack out an extra-base hit. To think ether could be a designated hitter indicates that Moore may not be clear on the concept. Designated hitters should hitters first.

The Astros signed Darin Erstad. At the moment, not terms are available, but you have to hope it's for one-year and $1 million or less. Erstad hasn't hit well since the 2000 season. It's really strange to see a player not only peak at age 26, but totally lose it after such a high peak.

Update: The terms are one year, $1 million plus incentives.

The Yankees signed LaTroy Hawkins to a contract today:

The New York Yankees finalized a $3.75 million, one-year contract with LaTroy Hawkins on Thursday, strengthening their weak middle relief with the veteran right-hander.

Hawkins, who turned 35 last Friday, was 2-5 with a 3.42 ERA last season for the Colorado Rockies. He made $3.25 million and Colorado declined a $3.75 million option, choosing to pay a $250,000 buyout.

So Hawkins ends up with a $250,000 raise over his option. Not a bad piece of change. It took LaTroy a while to find his niche in the majors. He didn't work as a starter or closer, but settled into middle relief just fine. Since 2002 he's posted a 2.93 ERA with very low walk and home run rates. He's a nice, cheap solution to the Yankees bullpen needs.

Ken Rosenthal reports the San Diego Padres signed Mark Prior. He did not provide details, but I'm guessing the guaranteed money is low, and the incentives are high. The upside of this signing is high, but the probability of realizing that upside is pretty low.

Update: The contract is for a $1 million base salary with incentives that bring it up to $3 million.

The Marlins signed Jose Castillo. Castillo can play second or third, and it's likely some combination of Castillo and Uggla will man those two positions. I haven't seen terms yet, but given his carrer OPS of .677, I can't believe he signed for much money. Cabrera had a VORP of 71.4 in 2007, Castillo -8.1 in about 1/3 of the plate appearances. That means Castillo was about 8 wins worse than Cabrera in 2007. Eight wins less for the Marlins gives them the worst record in the National League. In terms of rate, Cabrera's VORP is .457 per game. Castillo's was -0.151. So over 162 games. Castillo costs you 24 runs vs. a replacement player, while Cabrera earns you 74! So eight wins might be conservative.

It's one thing to trade away stars to gain future talent. But there's no excuse to then go out and sign someone who can't even play as well as someone you could call up from AAA.

The White Sox signed former Cuban player Alexei Ramirez.

ESPN is reporting that the Phillies reached a deal with Geoff Jenkins:

The Philadelphia Phillies and free agent outfielder Geoff Jenkins have reached preliminary agreement on a two-year deal believed to be worth about $13 million, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The agreement includes a third year vesting option based on plate appearances that could increase Jenkins' total package to $20 million, the source said. The deal could be announced as early as Thursday.

Jenkins career has ranged from average to very good. In his best seasons, he gets on base extremely well and hits for power. The last two seasons, however, he did one or the other. In 2006, he posted a high OBA with low power. In 2007, his OBA dropped to a poor .319, while his slugging percentage rose about 40 points to .471. He's a useful player at a reasonable price.

According to the story, Shane Victorino now becomes the starting centerfielder.

Let's take a look at three projection systems to see how Silva compares with other Seattle starters.

Pitcher Projections	Silva		Washburn		Batista
	Innings	ERA	Innings	ERA	Innings	ERA
Bill James	199	4.61	193	4.15	194	4.50
Chone	194	4.45	190	4.31	182	4.60
Marcels	177	4.65	176	4.45	166	4.77

Basically, Seattle purchased a clone of Washburn and Batista. But that's not a bad thing. Consider that the ERAs the four men who manned the four-five slots ranged from 5.15 to 8.03. Silva gives them a solid fourth man in the rotation, a huge improvement over 2007. The Mariners scored 4.9 runs per game last season. If they can improve that mark a bit, this staff is good enough to produce a winning record.

Mel Stottlemyre was the force behind the Mariners signing Carlos Silva to a four-year, $44 million deal:

"Going into this, I made a list of all the free-agent starters who were available," new Mariners pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre said Wednesday night after a reporter told him the deal was done. "And to be honest with you, he was at the top of my list because of his background and the type of pitcher that he is."

Mel loves pitchers who allow the ball to be put in play, low walk, low strikeout guys just like him.

Silva also doesn't walk many batters, though his strikeout rate of 3.97 batters per nine innings is very low for a starter being paid this much money. The bottom line is, much of Silva's success could depend on how well the fielders behind him get to balls put in play.

"I think Safeco is a pretty good field for him," Stottlemyre said. "He's a very good ground-ball pitcher."

Stottlemyre figures Seattle's infielders are up to the task, even with second baseman Jose Lopez still a huge question mark heading into 2008. Stottlemyre also said the fact that fly balls don't carry all that well at Safeco should work to Silva's favor better than the Metrodome in Minneapolis did.

Seattle's defense was about average in 2007, so Carlos won't get a boost from his fielders. The field has a three-year home run index of 91 according to the Bill James Handbook 2008, but Minnesota had an index of 85. Silva's home runs might actually go up.

I also love this:

The Mariners had just been spurned by free-agent pitcher Hiroki Kuroda and needed to find another place to spend roughly $11 million over the next four years.

The idea that they need to spend exactly that amount on a player is ludicrous. I thought the idea was to spend the least money on the best player possible, not just throw money at someone because it is budgeted for the position.

Baseball Digest Daily just flashed to my email that the Mariners signed Carlos Silva to a four-year deal. I'll have more after the radio show when we know the details of the deal.

The Seattle Mariners are talking to Carlos Silva:

The 28-year-old right-hander was 13-14 last season with a 4.19 ERA -- better than every Mariners starter other than hard-throwing Felix Hernandez.

Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) shows Silva's 2007 VORP at 35.5, just behind Hernandez's 36.4. Silva is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, so he needs a good defense behind him to be effective. The Mariners were a bit below average in 2007.

Metsblog.com relays that Kris Benson threw for prospective employers recently. On top of that, the Astros made an offer to Mark Prior. My guess is that both get one year contracts to show they can pitch. A successful year from either of them would lead to bigger money in 2009.

The signing of Gary Benett by the Dodgers causes Dodger Thoughts to replay an oldie by goodie.

The Dodgers and Hiroki Kuroda finalized their deal on Saturday. He'll receive nearly $12 million a year for three years. Here's my earlier take on the pitcher. The money and length of contract seem right to me. Starting pitching is at a premium. Kuroda won't be an ace, and $12 million for a third or fourth starter is no longer outrageous.

The Twins sign Mike Lamb to a two year deal. His OBA has been well above his career average the last two seasons. Even if he falls off a bit, he should be a good replacement for Nick Punto.

Rays Index looks at the positive aspects of the Tampa Bay Rays signing Cliff Floyd. The Rays strike me as a team with a potentially good pitching staff in need of better offense. They especially need more batter who get on base, and if he's healthy, Floyd gives them that.

The Blue Jays signed David Eckstein, reuniting him with former Angels teammate Troy Glaus.

He will bat leadoff for the Jays, a spot the club had trouble filling last year in the absence of Reed Johnson.

"That's been his role and he's always been successful at it," Jays manager John Gibbons told The Canadian Press. "He's a tough out and he really battles. He just seems to find a way to get something done."

He was consistent with the Cardinals, posting OBAs of .363, .350 and .356 in his three years there. Those aren't great for a leadoff man, but they're okay.

Correction: Fixed his former team.

The Twins sign Adam Everett:

Everett, who turns 31 on Feb. 2, batted .232 with a .281 on-base percentage and .318 slugging percentage in 66 games with the Astros last season and missed three months with a broken leg. His career batting average is .248.

Minnesota seems to love glove men with questionable offensive skills at shortstop.

The Twins sign Adam Everett:

Everett, who turns 31 on Feb. 2, batted .232 with a .281 on-base percentage and .318 slugging percentage in 66 games with the Astros last season and missed three months with a broken leg. His career batting average is .248.

Minnesota seems to love glove men with questionable offensive skills at shortstop.

The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez completed their contract negotiations:

Alex Rodriguez set another record for baseball's highest contract, finalizing his $275 million, 10-year agreement with the New York Yankees on Thursday.

...

His new deal allows A-Rod to earn $30 million more for achieving historic milestones. He is 18th on the career list with 518 homers, 244 shy of Barry Bonds' record.

Given some of the contracts handed out this winter, I think the Yankees got a pretty good deal.

Correction: I had an update to the previous post here by mistake.

Baseball Hot Corner apologizes to Andy Pettitte.

There must be some attraction between centerfielders and the west coast:

The San Francisco Giants have signed Gold Glove center fielder Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract, club Senior Vice President and General Manager Brian Sabean announced.

...

"Aaron (Rowand) is an all-around player who is coming into his prime and helps us check off two boxes -- an extremely talented defensive center fielder and a middle of the order presence," said Sabean. "His ability in center field definitely plays to our ballpark and will help provide more stability to our pitching staff. His no nonsense approach on the field and in the clubhouse will be welcomed."

If he produces like last year, he will be a middle of the order presence. But that was a career year for Aaron. This will be the first time he's playing in a park that fairly neutral for hitters. I'll update when his salary is announced.

Update: SI has the AP article reporting five years, $60 million. That strikes me as right. In the analysis I did for SportingNews.com, I had all three centerfielders getting between $11 and $13 million for five years, so it's a good deal for the Giants.

Bleed Cubbie Blue provides the correct pronunciation for the Cubs new player, koh-skay foo-koo-DOUGH-may.

Via 6-4-2, the Dodgers won the bidding on Hiroki Kuroda. You can see Kuroda's stats here. He's a control pitcher, walking just 2.36 per game. His strikeouts, 6.6 per nine are okay. He's not young as he turns 33 in February. After a great year in 2006, he reverted to his career norms in 2007. Until we see the money, it's tough to know if this is a good deal or not.

The San Diego Padres agreed to a contract with Tadahito Iguchi to replace the disappointing Marcus Giles. No terms were announced. If he hits anywhere near his career averages he'll be a big improvement over Marcus.

Kosuke Fukudome agreed to a four-year contract with the Cubs last night for at least $12 million a season. It looks like a pretty good signing. Here's the best set of Japanese stats I've found on Kosuke. He's posted in his career a .397 OBA and a .543 slugging percentage. Hideki Matsui was a .413/.592 when he came to the US, but he was also two years younger. He's posted a .371 OBA with a .485 slugging percentage in his career. Ichiro was at .421/.522 in Japan, .379/.437 in the US. So it seems to me Fukudome should be around .360/.450. Think Torii Hunter with slightly less power but a much better OBA. If Torii is worth $18 million a year, then $12 for Fukudome is a bargain.

It's official, Kosuke Fukudome is available to North American teams:

Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome told the Chunichi Dragons he will not return next season, saying he wants to make a move to the major leagues.

Fukudome, who became a free agent last month, informed the Central League club of his decision Tuesday.

"I won't be playing for a Japanese club next season, I'll play in the majors," Fukudome said. "I appreciate the fans who supported me for nine years. I hope that the fans continue to root for me when they see me playing in the United States."

Fukudome is regarded as one of the best outfielders in Japanese professional baseball. The 30-year-old was a key member of the Japan team that won the inaugural World Baseball Classic in March 2006.

With most of their outfield gone, I suspect the Padres will go the extra-mile to sign Fukudome. They've already made a strong offer:

The Padres have made an offer to Fukudome, calling it "one of the two or three biggest offers" in team history.

Fukudome should hold out for #1.

The Arizona Diamondbacks upped the money they're willing to pay Hiroki Kuroda.

The Diamondbacks recently improved their contract offer to Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda, going up in dollars but not years from their original offer of three years and $27 million.

Although the details are unknown, the new offer is believed to be structured to include more money over the final two years of the deal.

It is easier for the Diamondbacks to structure the deal that way because they have fewer dollars committed to their 2009 and 2010 payrolls.

Kuroda's stats through 2006 can be found on this page (scroll down). His strikeouts are good but not outstanding, but his control is very good. He's not as good Matsuzaka, and we saw that Dice-K had problems his first year. But because he's a free agent, the money goes to him and not his club, so a team can spend less overall.

The rumors over the weekend indicated Kosuke Fukudome planned to come to the Major Leagues, but his agent says the decision will be made later Monday night:

The Nikkansports newspaper reported Saturday that Fukudome has turned down a lucrative multiyear offer from the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants and will play in America next season. But agent Joe Urbon said the report was premature, and that Fukudome is still conferring with his family in Nagoya, Japan, in anticipation of his decision.

"If the report was accurate, you would have seen quotes from the player or the [Yomiuri] club," Urbon said. "He hasn't made up his mind yet. When he does make up his mind, the first point of communication will be to the clubs in Japan."

I hope he does opt for free agency in North America. The adolescent in me can't wait for him to face Chien-Ming Wang or Randy Johnson. :-)

Via MetsHeads, Paul LoDuca reached an agreement with the Nationals:

The Washington Nationals have agreed to terms on a one-year contract with free agent catcher Paul Lo Duca, a source with knowledge of the situation said today. Terms were not immediately available, though Lo Duca was thought to be seeking $5 million. The deal is pending Lo Duca passing a physical, a source said.

Lo Duca, 35, played the past two seasons with the New York Mets. A .288 career hitter and four-time all-star, he played previously for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Florida Marlins.

Pretty soon they'll change the name of the team to the MetsReds.

Blez at Athletics Nation is feeling conflicted over the possible signing of Barry Bonds:

All that being said, I can't see abandoning the team I love because it's doing something that it was designed to do and that's look for great deals in the open market of baseball. The A's should sign Bonds if he comes at a reasonable price. It's what Beane has done with this team the last several years. Bonds is exactly the kind of bargain that Beane loves. And it is all about business and doing whatever you can do to continue to be competitive being in a much smaller market. I love the A's because they try and seize opportunities when they present themselves. They've tried to be smarter than other teams and score where other teams were reluctant. Ironically, it seems like the same reason my love grew so much deeper for this team may wind up being the reason my love will be tested.

I've never been so conflicted in my 35-years of sports fanaticism. Thankfully, it's not a done deal and it still may never happen. It will not make me throw away all my A's memorabilia and abandon Athletics Nation. But it will most definitely make me realize that sometimes the things that you love the most about something can wind up being a fatal blow to that relationship. I'm learning that the hard way.

There are fans writing letters to the editor saying they won't be Athletics fans if Barry gets signed. My guess is that's just a vocal minority. If they sign Bonds, it certainly will be short term. My guess is most A's fans will hold their nose and enjoy the extra scoring he'll bring.

The Yankees tap LaTroy Hawkins for their bullpen:

The Yankees, rebuilding their setup corps, are close to signing free-agent right-hander LaTroy Hawkins to a one-year contract believed to be worth approximately $3.75 million, according to major-league sources.

Hawkins, 35, will help fill the void created by the loss of righty Luis Vizcaino, who declined salary arbitration from the Yankees, and righty Joba Chamberlain, who is expected to move into the starting rotation.

That's pretty cheap for a reliever these days. LaTroy isn't a big strikeout pitcher, but he has shown good control in his career. For the price, it's a very good move.

It looked like Milton Bradley was going to return to San Diego, but today he reached an agreement with the Texas Rangers:

Bradley, who also had considered re-signing with the San Diego Padres, could play outfield or be a designated hitter with the Rangers. His deal also contains performance bonuses.

Bradley was the second-half offensive catalyst for the Padres, who fell one win short of going to their third straight trip to the playoffs. But he tore the anterior cruciate ligament and damaged cartilage in his right knee when Padres manager Bud Black spun him to the ground while trying to keep him from going after umpire Mike Winters during a confrontation on Sept. 23.

Bradley brings a huge improvement in OBA over Sammy Sosa.

Via Brew Crew Ball, it looks like the Brewers landed Eric Gagne.

A little more than a week after losing closer Francisco Cordero to a four-year contract with the Cincinnati Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday morning were near a contract agreement with veteran reliever Eric Gagne, according to an industry source.

Terms of the contract were unavailable, but it is likely to be for one year.

Gagne is going to continue to receive one year contracts until he proves he can pitch well through an entire season.

The Rockies are out of second basemen after trading Jamey Carroll, but it looks like they are going to sign Tadahito Iguchi. He looked like he was slipping last season until he went to Philadelphia, where he recovered his ability to get on base.

Susan Slusser speculates that the Athletics will sign Barry Bonds:

If they had decided to rebuild, the A's wouldn't have a spot for Barry Bonds.

However, the club is intact as the winter meetings end, and Oakland is considered the hot pick to sign the free-agent outfielder despite his legal troubles and the potential public-relations issues that accompany him.

"There is no doubt in my mind that Oakland will sign Bonds," one major-league executive said Thursday as the winter meetings wound down. "I'd be shocked if it didn't happen."

It's a logical place for Barry to play, and a logical player for Oakland to sign based on his stats. However, not all Oakland fans want the all-time home run leader on their team.

6-4-2 Takes the negative view of the deal, while Dodgers Thoughts is more positive. Of course, once Jon got some sleep, he changed his tune a bit.

The Dodgers jumped into the free agent market, signing centerfielder Andruw Jones. He gets $36.2 million for two years. Every time one of these good but not great players gets this kind of money, I'm more convinced Alex Rodriguez should have waited longer for a market to develop for him. If Hunter and Jones are worth $18 million a year, Alex is worth $36 million.

If you think this means the end of Juan Pierre, you're mistaken:

The Dodgers are expected to move weak-armed Juan Pierre to left field, leaving Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier for right. The surplus of outfielders could make either Kemp or Ethier expendable and the Dodgers are believed to have been asked for Kemp in trade discussions for several available pitchers, including left-hander Erik Bedard of the Baltimore Orioles.

An official for the Oakland Athletics said earlier in the day that the Dodgers weren't considered a viable trade partner for right-handers Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, but the potential availability of Kemp could change that.

Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said Wednesday the team needs to acquire a starting pitcher this winter.

The Dodgers best team would have both Kemp and Andre Ethier in the outfield. Pierre is signed to a long term contract, however. With his OBA gone, his power gone, and an arm of a left fielder, he's not exactly a marketable commodity. If Andruw's offense doesn't come back, this might end up looking like a very weak offensive outfield.

ESPN reports that the Royals agreed to a deal with outfielder Jose Guillen:

Outfielder Jose Guillen and the Kansas City Royals have reached a preliminary agreement for a three year, $36 million deal, a relative of the ballplayer told ESPNdeportes.com.

The agreement will be complete when Guillen passes a physical exam, scheduled for Tuesday.

However, earlier in the evening, the Kansas City Star reported that the talks stalled and the Royals were looking at Andruw Jones:

Suddenly, the Royals aren't facing a Jose Guillen-or-bust situation in their efforts to sign a run-producing, free-agent outfielder.

Andruw Jones has emerged as a possible alternative.

General manager Dayton Moore declined to confirm interest in Jones, a five-time All-Star center fielder, but sources say the two sides have been in close contact.

That appeared to be enough to bring Guillen to the table. Nice job of using the supply of outfielders to bring Guillen in at a decent price. The question, of course, is can Jose last three years in one town? In his eleven year career, Jose's yet to pull that off.

According to the Houston Chronicle, Andy Pettitte will pitch for the Yankees in 2008:

Andy Pettitte, who contemplated retirement this winter, has told his good friends, a few former Astros teammates and some current Yankees teammates that he will return to the Bronx for the 2008 season.

Through people close to Pettitte, the Chronicle has learned that the veteran lefthander has told family members and teammates that he has decided to return to the Yankees in 2008.

Last month Pettitte declined his $16 million player option for 2008 because he wasn't ready to commit to another season. But Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner told Pettitte they would wait for him until February, if necessary, so he could take his time to make a decision.

That wait is over, and the Yankees have been informed of the decision by Pettitte's agent, Randy Hendricks.

This makes the Yankees decently deep at starter, even if they don't trade for Santana. Wang, Pettitte and Mussina are the veterans, with Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy ready to step into the rotation as well. I wonder who will be the odd man out? Mussina, at his age, might be a good one-inning pitcher. He pitched well in the first inning in 2007. If he could learn to come out of the bullpen, he'd help solidify the relief corps.

Jeff at Lookout Landing breaks down the reasons the Mariners didn't off Jose Guillen arbitration and finds them lacking.

But before you write this off as nothing and say "so we lost one pick, who cares?", between 2003-2005 sandwich picks were used to grab the likes of Travis Buck, Clay Buchholz, Garrett Olson, Luke Hochevar (the first time), JP Howell, Huston Street, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Matt Murton. The Yankees snagged Joba Chamberlain 41st overall in 2006. Bob Fontaine is really, really good at his job. The organization just robbed him of an opportunity to snag a big-time talent.

Dusty Baker played an important part in bringing Francisco Cordero to the Reds:

"I got a couple of telephone calls from Dusty and that showed me they really want me," said Cordero. "They showed a lot of interest.

"Dusty assured me that they are not going to rebuild a team right now," Cordero added. "They are trying to put together a winning team, a team that will compete and not only go to the playoffs, but the World Series.

"Knowing Dusty Baker like I do, watching when he managed the Giants and the Cubs, I know he is a great manager," he said. "Knowing a lot of players who played for him, they told me I'm going to love to be part of a team where Dusty Baker is the manager. He played a big role in my signing. He showed me how much he respects me and how much he wants me to be part of the Cincinnati Reds."

If the Reds are going to win now, I expect to see a lot more action from them this winter.

David O'Brien looks at the reasons the Braves declined to offer arbitration to Andruw Jones:

Maybe if Andruw were a Class A free agent, it'd be a slightly better gamble in the Braves' eyes. At least then they'd get a first-round draft pick from the team that signed him, plus a sandwich pick.

But as a Class B guy, they'd only get a sandwich pick from a team. And if Andruw decided to accept arbitration, come back and play for $15-16 mill next season in hopes of reestablishing his free-agent value, the Braves would have to make a couple of other moves involving high-salaried players in order to fit him in.

Remember the Kevin Millwood trade they felt compelled to make at the last minute after the Maddux arbitration decision? That worked out OK for the Braves, since Johnny Estrade surpassed expectations. But when it was made, it was a very good starting pitcher being traded for a Triple-A catcher.

And there was one other thing about Andruw: He's a 10-and-5 guy. If he wasn't, the Braves could have offered him arbitration at much less risk, because if he'd accepted they could have traded him to San Diego or Los Angeles or another team interested in Andruw, and let that team work out a contract with him.

The St. Louis Cardinals picked up another cheap shortstop yesterday, signing Cesar Izturis to a one-year contract for less than $3 million dollars. Say what you will about David, but he posted at least a .350 OBA each season he played with the Cardinals. Cesar is at .295 for his career. Izturis rated higher in range than Eckstein, but he's not great. It's an offensive hit at the position without that much of a defensive boost. It was probably the right move to let Eckstein go, but the Cardinals didn't find a very good replacement.

The Tampa Bay Rays signed Troy Percival to a two-year, $8 million dollar contract today:

Percival, who seems likely to supplant Al Reyes as the Rays closer, will be introduced to the media at 3 p.m. at Tropicana Field.

He pitched 40 stellar innings for the Cardinals in 2007. Even if his ERA goes up a run with the Rays, it's a good signing.

Percival, a favorite of Rays manager Joe Maddon when both were in Anaheim, is also considered a strong clubhouse leader and is expected to have a positive influence on the young pitching staff. He also joins Reyes and Dan Wheeler in giving the Rays three veteran relievers with late-innings experience.

Young starters and old relievers. We'll see how it works.

Kenny Rogers officially signed with the Tigers, although the value of the contract wasn't reported.

The Houston Chronicle reports the Astros are on the verge of signing Kaz Matsui to replace Craig Biggio:

If the season started today, manager Cecil Cooper's first two batters would be players Wade acquired this winter. Center fielder Michael Bourn, who landed in Houston in the Brad Lidge trade, would lead off, and Matsui would bat second. Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee will be the next three batters, although it remains to be seen if Pence will hit third or fifth.

I'm not convinced Matsui is a perfect #2 hitter. His batting stats went up after his trade to the Rockies. During his stint with Colorado, his OBA was .405 at Coors, .305 on the road. We'll see what the money is like, but he's more likely to be a black hole in the #2 spot.

Doug Melvin doesn't like his choices among the free agent relievers:

After losing closer Francisco Cordero and set-up man Scott Linebrink to free agency, Melvin is looking for reinforcements for late-inning duty. The three top names remaining on the free-agent market with closing on their resumés are Eric Gagne, Troy Percival and Octavio Dotel.

Melvin has checked in with the agents for Percival and Dotel, and said he'll probably do likewise with Gagne. But he said that the injury histories of all three relievers make him nervous, particularly with the deals they are seeking.

"All the relievers are looking for three- or four-year deals," Melvin said. "There's a risk involved in doing that with relievers who have been injured."

If other teams agree with Melvin on the injury risk, then the number of years they are seeking might drop. Given Percival's excellent 2007 season, he might be the best bet of the bunch.

The Arizona Diamondbacks made an offer to Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda. AZ Snakepit notes he played in a hitter's park in Japan:

It should be noted the Carp stadium in which he pitched is one of the most offensive friendly parks in Japan: the measurements at Hiroshima Municipal Stadium are only 300 feet to left, 380 to center, and 300 to right. I guess he should therefore feel extremely at home in Chase.

One of the advantages of winning, and the increased revenue that goes with it is that Byrnes is able to go into the free agent market to plug holes.

Kerry Wood decided to stay with the Chicago Cubs, agreeing to a $4.2 million dollar, one-year contract:

Wood, the 1998 NL Rookie of the Year, can make an additional $3.45 million in performance bonuses. He had a $1.75 million salary this year.

The right-hander went 1-1 last season with a 3.33 ERA in 22 relief appearances. He didn't join the team until Aug. 5 when he made his first appearance since June 2006.

Kerry came back with good strikeout numbers, but his walks continue to be high. For someone who walked none in his 20 K game, Wood's failure to otherwise master his control has kept him from becoming a truly elite pitcher.

Squawking Baseball analyzes the free agent market.

Nick Nelson isn't happy with what Torii Hunter is saying as he leaves the Twins. Or maybe Torii is just confusing:

"Some people think that in three years, I'll be older ... but I feel like I can play left or right, and still be the best left fielder and right fielder in the game," he said.

Okay, who are the people who think Torii won't be older in three years? Please raise your hands. Actually, the quote probably would be less silly if we knew what the ellipse contained.

The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez found a way around the ban on career incentives:

The nonguaranteed part of the contract will be the marketing agreement, which the commissioner's office and the players union have approved. The Yankees and Rodriguez had to keep changing the nature of the agreement to gain approval because players cannot receive bonuses for achievements like home run totals.

In the approved agreement, Rodriguez will share in revenue the Yankees generate by marketing his home run milestones. Rodriguez, who on Aug. 4 became the youngest player to hit 500 home runs, finished the season with 518. He needs 245 home runs to surpass Barry Bonds if Bonds, who has been indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges, does not play again.

Under the agreement, Rodriguez will receive $6 million when he reaches each of five milestones: the career home run totals of Willie Mays (660), Babe Ruth (714), Henry Aaron (755) and Barry Bonds (762), and when he breaks the record.

It looks like the Yankees believe Alex's milestones will generate a ton of revenue.

The Reds are awaiting a physical on Francisco Cordero so they can sign him to a four-year, $46 million contract. The price of saves in Cincinnati is going way up. The Reds are paying Weathers less than $3 million per year and getting perfectly good work from him. Their problem isn't that Weathers blew six saves in 2007, it's that he only had 39 opportunities. If the offense and starting pitching doesn't get better, Cordero won't save many more games than David did.

The Royals are looking for a bat, not a fielder:

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim agreed to a five-year, $90 million contract with free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter late Wednesday, providing Vladimir Guerrero some protection in the batting order.

And it ends the Royals quest to land the power-hitting outfielder and refocuses their efforts on trying to land outfielder Jose Guillen.

The Royals have long viewed Hunter and Guillen as the only free agents available capable of filling their need for a right-handed, power-hitting outfielder -- unless Andruw Jones significantly lowers his asking price.

Jones is a tough case. His 2007 season looks like a fluke in the context of his career. But his 127 hits in 572 at bats are outside his 95% confidence interval. A batter with a .263 career average would be expected to collect between 130 and 171 hits in that number of at bats. The fact that Andruw came in below 130 indicates this change in his ability has a high probability of being real.

In a stunning development, Torii Hunter reached a deal with the Anaheim Angels last night (hat tip, Basball Digest Daily).

The Angels pulled off their second stunning -- and somewhat perplexing -- move of the week late Wednesday night, signing free-agent center fielder Torii Hunter to a five-year, $90-million contract, the richest deal in franchise history.

Three teams -- the Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals -- extended five-year offers to the former Minnesota Twins star, and the Angels seemed set in center field with Gary Matthews Jr., a superb defender who is entering the second year of a five-year, $50-million contract.

But Tony Reagins, the Angels rookie general manager, began speaking with agent Larry Reynolds "a few days ago," negotiations heated up with microwave-like quickness, and a deal for the seven-time Gold Glove Award winner, which will be finalized pending a physical, came together "within the last 24 hours," Reynolds said.

"They shocked me," Hunter said during a hastily arranged conference call late Wednesday night. "I wanted to be with these guys. I thought maybe they didn't need a center fielder like me. They shocked the world. I love these guys . . . I want to say thank you guys for choosing me. I'm honored.

The Angels say they'll use Matthews in both corner spots as Guerrero and Anderson rotate throught he outfield and DH spot. Both suffered injuries in 2007, so maybe the Angels are trying to save these two from more of the same. The odd men out are Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits. So do Willits and a pitcher go to the Marlins for Cabrera? Or to the Orioles for Tejada?

What I don't like about the deal is the age of the Angels outfield. The seasonal age for the outfielders in 2008:

• Anderson: 36
• Matthews: 33
• Guerrero: 32
• Hunter: 32

Guerrero is in the last year of his contract, with a team option for 2009. I'm guessing they extend Vlad, giving the team a very old outfield as they end the aughties. If they land Cabrera, it's probably worth it. If they land Tejada, they're just another old team trying to win now.

It is nice to see that some team was willing to bid too much for a player. After Rodriguez and Lowell attracted little attention, Hunter ends up the one overpaid. Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand must be very happy this morning.

Update: 6-4-2 Isn't happy with the deal.

Despite his type A ranking by Elias, Hunter's value to the team is rather dubious thanks to his age, multiplied by having a career year in a contract year. PECOTA projected him as a 45 VORP player, and he came in a bit below that at 39.2. Now, four wins is nothing to sneeze at, but he marks the kind of player the Angels really shouldn't be chasing; they need a Hall of Fame caliber bat, and Hunter simply isn't that. As a fix for the outfield, it reaches meh levels, with the usual caveats that Hunter's comps were either out of baseball or ineffective by the time this deal will be over, when Hunter is 36.

Chronicle of the Lads list the deal under WTF.

Aaron Gleeman looks at the bright side for the Twins:

Hunter remaining in the AL isn't ideal, but signing with the Angels beats joining the White Sox or even the Royals. The good news is that because the Angels finished with a winning record in 2007, the Twins will receive the 27th overall pick June's draft as compensation for losing Hunter. Had he signed with the White Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Nationals, Royals, Astros, Reds, or any other sub-.500 team, the Twins would have received a supplemental first rounder instead.

The Brewers are close to a one-year deal with Jason Kendall.

The Cleveland Indians signed Masahide Kobayashi to two-year contract on Tuesday.

Looking to strengthen the back end of their bullpen and add insurance for closer Joe Borowski, the Indians signed Japanese free agent Masahide Kobayashi to a US$6.25 million, two-year contract on Tuesday.

The deal includes a $3.25 million club option for 2010 with a $250,000 buyout.

Do the Indians really need another setup man? Their real weakness in the bullpen was at closer, where Borowski converted saves but with a very high ERA. There was an evening of luck there, however, as Borowski, in terms of strikeouts, walks and home runs pitched much better than his ERA, so he probably deserved the saves. Kobayashi may be insurance against Borowski's luck going totally bad in 2008. And at a bit over $3 million a year, there's not a loss if Masahide performs poorly.

What money did Mike Lowell leave on the table? The Phillies supposedly offered an extra-year to Lowell, but no more money per year. If Mike just survives the three years of his contract, he should get even more money when this contract is up. Lowell's only risk here is that he has a career ending injury. If he just plays at his career averages, he gets a big raise in 2011.

Cardinals Diaspora wonders where David Eckstein will land. Ryan thinks he'd be good for one more year in St. Louis:

The best approach for the Cards here might be to offer Eckstein arbitration, hope the market doesn't give him the kind of deal he's looking for, and then get a one year deal with him through arbitration. That would give the Cards a good fix for the 2008 season, without committing them to a long term deal for a player they shouldn't be making a long term deal with AND give the club time to evaluate Brendan Ryan's starting credentials through the 2008 season, leaving them free to install him or find other options in the market after the season. Bernie Miklasz of the PD says that the Cards won't offer more than 2 years.

The AP reports Mike Lowell agreed to a three-year deal with the Red Sox.

The third baseman and the Red Sox reached a preliminary agreement Monday on a $37.5 million, three-year contract, according to two people familiar with the negotiations who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal had not been finalized.

Frankly, I'm very surprised no team even tried to outbid Boston and New York for the services of Rodriguez and Lowell. I don't usually buy into the collusion rhetoric put out by the MLBPA, but this is just strange. With A-Rod off the market, you'd think teams would be very interested in Mike. Either they've all come to their senses in terms of money, or something shady is going on. I can understand not wanting to offer Mike a fourth year, but $40 million for three years with the growth in the game's revenue isn't outrageous. I'm glad for Lowell because he appeared to want to stay in Boston, I'm just very surprised at the lack of bidding going on at the hot corner this winter.

A comic book expert presents his take on Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. (Note that the A-Rod deal is not done, despite the implication in the post.)

The Texas Rangers are taking Torii Hunter out to dinner. He should remember this advice from Phyllis and Stanley:

Phyllis: (to Pam) You should order the most expensive thing on the menu so he knows you are worth it.

Pam: She laughs.

Stanley: If you do that, you'll have to put out.

Pam: She sends an annoyed look to Stanley.

Phyllis: Well yeah, you'll have to put out.

The Mets are about to sign Luis Castillo to a four year contract worth $25 million. It's a good price for a middle infielder with a good OBA, but MetsBlog.com is worried about his staying power:

...but, four years...for those knees...good luck with that...

It seems to me bad knees are built into the salary.

Tom Glavine reached a deal with the Braves for one year, $8 million. Glavine simply wanted to return to Atlanta and was willing to play for less than his market value to do so.

The Braves were eager to add depth to a rotation that relied heavily on John Smoltz and Tim Hudson and never settled on reliable options in the fourth and fifth slots. In addition to landing Glavine, they hope for a return to health by Mike Hampton, who missed the last two seasons with injuries. He has started another rehab stint in the Arizona Fall League.

If Hampton returns, that gives the Braves a fairly old rotation. By seasonal age, Glavine will be 42, Smoltz 41, Hampton 35 and Hudson 32. They seem to be going the route the Yankees did until recently.

According the the NY Post, Mariano Rivera will accept a three-year deal with the Yankees. If that's the case, and Alex Rodriguez also stays with the Yankees, then, Joe Torre leaving appeared to do little to hurt the roster. The great offensive team remains intact, with the possibility of young arms ready to improve the pitching staff. Not a bad winter at all.

The Mets mysteriously pulled out of the deal for Yorvit Torrealba.

After agreeing on the finances of a three-year, $14.4 million deal with the free-agent catcher Torrealba, the Mets abruptly pulled out Saturday. The team offered no explanation. The lone remaining hurdle to complete the agreement had been passing a physical.

"We do not have an agreement with Yorvit Torrealba and there are no ongoing negotiations with him or his agent," Mets spokesman Jay Horwitz said.

Melvin Roman, Torrealba's agent, declined to comment.

Maybe they just came to their senses.

The NY Daily News reports Alex Rodriguez's new contract comes with incentives:

The contract will include incentives connected to A-Rod's expected pursuit of Barry Bonds' all-time home run record. Rodriguez hit his 500th home run on Aug. 4 at the age of 32, becoming the youngest player to reach that milestone. A-Rod finished the season with 54 homers, giving him 518 for his career.

That's very unusual for the Yankees. As a rule they don't offer incentives for winning individual honors. Of course, this is a career incentive, and part of what makes Rodriguez valuable is the attention he and the team receive as Alex chases a number of all-time marks. Given that Rodriguez remains untainted by the steroid scandals, his pursuit of the home run record should generate a ton of positive press. No doubt that Rodriguez breaking Bonds record will be written as a story of redemption for major league baseball.

Baseball Crank isn't very happy about the Mets signing Yorvit Torrealba:

So, he's here to call games for Pedro Martinez? You'd think when you sign a defense-first, catch-and-throw catcher, you'd at least get a guy who can throw. The money here is bizarre; good catchers are scarce, but it's not like Torrealba's skill set is at all hard to find cheap. Certainly he's a lesser player than Ramon Castro, who will be signed far more cheaply to back him up (granted, Castro's not physically up to playing every day). I suppose I could understand skimping on the catching position - deciding that it's not worth spending a fortune on guys who are not really stars, like Michael Barrett - but if that's your goal, why plunk down $14 million? Why not just beat the bushes for some other guys who can hit .240 for peanuts?

Torrealba will be 29 in 2008, and is a career .251/.391/.313 hitter, .242/.377/.299 away from Coors Field; there's no reason to think he is due to make a big step forward as a hitter, and those numbers are poor even for a #8 hitter. Despite batting less than 400 times in 2007, he managed to finish in the top 10 in the league in GIDP. There is no possible explanation for this deal.

That's BA/Slug/OBA on the stats, so he pitiful as a hitter. He's a long way down from Jorge Posada.

If Alex Rodriguez is willing to play for the Yankees for $27.5 million a season, why hasn't anyone stepped in to offer more? I assumed teams would go $30 million a season. If for no other reason than to try to force the Yankees to spend more money, why hasn't LAnaheim or Boston stepped in with a $300 million dollar offer, or even $290 million? Truthfully, I believe Alex is worth $27 million a year, but his unique skill set should be drawing bidders, especially when he's shown he's willing to work for less than the value his agent indicated. What do teams have to lose by making a big offer? Then years of a great ballplayer?

My latest column at SportingNews.com examines the value of the three star centerfielders looking for a big payday this winter.

The big three New York newspapers present three views of the change in direction by Alex Rodriguez. John Harper in the NY Daily News traces A-Rod's thinking, and transforms Hank Steinbrenner from stumbling son to the man in charge:

More than anything, it apparently was the very public and seemingly ironclad dismissal by Hank Steinbrenner after the opt-out that made A-Rod begin to re-think his willingness to let Boras once again dictate the direction his career would take.

"That's why he called me, to ask if Hank was serious about closing the door on him," a second person said yesterday. "From what I gathered, Boras had been telling him not to worry about what Brian Cashman was saying about the opt-out, partly because they knew they had George on their side.

"But then Alex saw the shift in power, with the Steinbrenner sons taking over, and here was Hank saying 'Goodbye, we don't want you if you don't want to be a Yankee.' Those words really messed with his mind because he really did want to be a Yankee."

Hank also appealed to Alex's sense of history:

Steinbrenner said he spoke with Rodriguez by telephone shortly after Rodriguez opted out. In that conversation, which Rodriguez initiated, Steinbrenner said he told him about sitting next to Joe DiMaggio at the 1978 World Series.

"I asked Mr. DiMaggio, 'Is there really a difference in winning a World Series ring as a Yankee and winning it with any other team?'" Steinbrenner said. "He said, 'Of course there is.' He said he could have won the same number of rings for another team, and it wouldn't have meant a quarter of what it meant to win them as a Yankee.

"That's all Alex had to wake up to. Does he want to win a Yankee ring or get another team's World Series ring? There's a big difference. I just wanted to make sure Alex understood that, because it appeared that he was going in the wrong direction."

That's a great quote. It shows Hank owns the same swagger as George, the confidence that this is the best franchise in the game, and he doesn't care who he offends saying it.

Finally, Mike Vaccaro wants the fans to take a bow for their part in the saga:

YOU the fans stood up here. Understand that. Believe that. You were heard here. Understand that. Believe that. You weren't alone. There were other serendipitous circumstances. But that's OK. That's fine. All you hear, relentlessly, is that the fan's voice doesn't matter, that it's ignored, that it's irrelevant in our sporting world.

Mostly, that's true.

Just not this time. Alex Rodriguez heard you. He felt your wrath. He absorbed your scorn. If negotiations with the Yankees head where it appears they're heading - with Rodriguez returning, with the Yankees scoring a major coup against Scott Boras, bringing A-Rod back on their terms - then you are allowed a moment to stand up and take a bow.

Because you helped make it happen. Understand that. Believe that.

Peter Abraham at The LoHud Yankees Blog reports that the A-Rod deal is all but done.

In what was a bad day for the Scott Boras Corporation, Alex Rodriguez went to the Yankees directly and apparently has all but finalized a 10-year, $275 million deal.

It took 32 years and nationwide scorn but it seems A-Rod is finally his own man. Good for him and good for the Yankees. His playoff performances aside, keeping A-Rod at third beats Mike Lowell or shipping out young prospects for Miguel Cabrera.

I can't wait to hear the behind the scenes saga of this signing.

Alex Rodriguez issues a statement at his website:

Prior to entering into serious negotiations with other clubs, I wanted the opportunity to share my thoughts directly with Yankees' ownership. We know there are other opportunities for us, but Cynthia and I have a foundation with the club that has brought us comfort, stability and happiness.

As a result, I reached out to the Yankees through mutual friends and conveyed that message. I also understand that I had to respond to certain Yankees concerns, and I was receptive and understanding of that situation.

Cynthia and I have since spoken directly with the Steinbrenner family. During these healthy discussions, both sides were able to share honest feelings and hopes with one another, and we expect to continue this dialogue with the Yankees over the next few days.

Ken Rosenthal points out that the Yankees can't refuse to negotiate with Boras:

"That clearly is a violation of the Basic Agreement," Michael Weiner, the general counsel of the players' union, told FOXSports.com on Wednesday.

"Once a player designates an agent, a club cannot refuse to meet with that agent."

Earlier post here. If A-Rod went behind Scott's back, then their relationship is over anyway. This is, by the way, another reason not to trust third party rumors. The Yankees, of course, could have expressed their unwillingness to negotiate with Boras by saying, "We won't negotiate as long as Boras is your agent," which may be perfectly legal. The Daily News gets the quote at the end of a game of telephone.

Thanks to Tom for pointing this out in the comments to the previous A-Rod post, linked above.

Update: If people aren't clicking through to the article, the quote causing trouble is:

"We will not negotiate with Scott Boras," a Yankees source told the paper. "He cannot be in the room."

The Yankees can't say we will negotitate with you but not your agent.

The NY Daily News reports that Alex Rodriguez is talking to the Yankees without Scott Boras:

According to the first source, the Yankees are waiting for Mariano Rivera to sign a new contract before finalizing any plans with Rodriguez, who is expected to take a 10-year deal worth roughly $275 million. That would be about $75 million less than Boras has been looking for, though most industry insiders believe there was never going to be a $350 million offer out there for Rodriguez.

Interestingly, I pegged A-Rod's worth at $27 million over eight years. If this deal does indeed happen, not a bad estimate. Again, if this is a true story, it looks like Alex wants to stay in New York enough that he's willing to admit his mistake in not talking to the Yankees before opting out. I would also guess his relationship with Boras is close to over. However, I'm also taking this story with a huge grain of salt.

The Yankees and Jorge Posada reached a Monday last night, making Jorge the highest paid catcher in the majors:

Posada, a free agent, could have started negotiating with other teams today, and the Mets, who need a catcher, would have been among his suitors. But Posada wanted to stay with the Yankees, and their contract, worth at least $52 million, rewards him for one of the best seasons any catcher has had.

The Yankees' contract ensures that Posada, 36, will be signed through his 40th birthday. Posada will also make more, at least initially, than Detroit's Iván Rodríguez, whose $13 million contract for 2008 is the record for a catcher.

My Baseball Bias likes the deal. He invokes Carlton Fisk to deal with age issues:

As for Posada's next four years in Pinstripes, it will be interesting to see how he holds up physically. He's never been on the DL and the Yankees will have to see that he gets more playing time at first-base and DH to save his knees. Maybe a nice chair recliner in the corner of the dugout would be a nice gesture.

If we're looking for a historical comparable for Posada, we might turn our eyes to Carlton Fisk. Later in his career he was still catching over 100 games a season.

Fisk played in 413 major league games through age 27, mostly due to injury. Posada appeared in 292 games through age 27, due to Joe Girardi's ability to handle a pitching staff. Neither man caught that much young, possibly giving them the stamina in last into their forties. Of course, Varitek caught even fewer than both of them through age 27, and he's clearly fading.

It's not a great deal for the Yankees. Posada is much more likely to decline. His 2007 are the best of his career, an outlier even for a great hitter like Jorge. If the Yankees start moving him to another position like first base or DH, Jorge's career numbers are good but not great for those positions. A perfectly good strategy for New York would be to let Rivera and Posada go, take the draft picks, and go into full rebuilding mode.

From a loyalty point of view, however, the Yankees are certainly doing the right thing. It looks like Jeter, Posada and Rivera play for New York their entire careers. It's just not clear how much they will actually help the team as they age.

The Yankees are going to offer Alex Rodriguez arbitration:

"It is about the two draft picks," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the paper. "By offering arbitration, we get the first-round pick of the team that signs him and a sandwich pick."

The Yankees have until December 1 to offer Rodriguez arbitration, which the player has until December 7 to accept or reject.

If he accepted, Rodriguez would surrender contractual benefits like his no-trade clause, but it would likely open the door to negotiate a new long-term deal with the Yankees.

This will be interesting. It makes perfect sense for the Yankees to offer arbitration. The worst that can happen is they get Alex for another season without needing to negotiate. They just make an offer and the arbitrator decides. Then everyone can kiss and make up and maybe they sign him to a long term deal later.

Curt Schilling signs with the Red Sox for $8 million plus incentives, including weight incentives:

$2 million in bonuses for 6 seperate weigh ins.

I inserted the weigh in clause in the 2nd round of offers, counter offers. Given the mistakes I made last winter and into Spring Training I needed to show them I recognized that, and understood the importance of it. Being overweight and out of shape are two different things. I also was completely broad sided by the fact that your body doesn't act/react the same way as you get older. Even after being told that for the first 39 years of my life. Now I can't get on Dougie anymore, which sucks, and I am sure the clause will add 15-100 more jokes to Tito's Schilling joke book.

This is what Curt wanted, to finish his career in Boston. So he left some money on the table to accomplish that. Both parties appeared to get a good deal.

CBSSportsline runs down the best Japanese players likely to file for free agency. Due to Japanese rules, none of them are very young.

Sabernomics discusses the Yankees/A-Rod negotiations from a game theory perspective. He argues against Jeffrey Gordon's point that the Yankees refusal to negotiate is not credible:

A-Rod won't wear the pinstripes again. I am certain that the Yankee's are out of the bidding, even though the Yankees might still value his services more than any team in baseball. What is at stake here is not a single player's contract, but the organization's long-run credibility at keeping its word. If the Yankees cave, the repercussions will echo into the future. Why would any player ever not opt out of his deal in the future if he knows the Yankees will give in? Not following up on your threats is bad for your reputation as a tough guy.

Exactly right.

Andy Pettitte declared free agency while he makes up his mind about retirement.

"I have spoken with Brian Cashman, who has reiterated what Hank Steinbrenner said about the Yankees wanting to give Andy all the time he needs to decide about next season," Pettitte's agent, Randy Hendricks, said Monday in an e-mail to The Associated Press. "Accordingly, we are declining to exercise the option for 2008 and Andy will declare free agency in order to free up a roster spot for the Yankees.

"If Andy decides to play, I am confident we can reach an agreement with the Yankees within 24 hours. The only options, as Andy has stated, are the Yankees or retirement. He appreciates the Yankees' willingness to give him the time he feels he needs. I do not expect him to make a decision for quite some time."

The antithesis of A-Rod.

Evan Grant makes the case for the Rangers signing Fukudome:

1. They need a corner outfielder.

2. They have extra money

3. THIS IS HUGE: Fukudome is not part of the posting system that led to wild bidding for Daisuke Matsuzaka last year. He is a free agent. And MLB clubs don't hav to give up draft pick compensation for signing Japanese free agents. If the Rangers sign Jose Guillen, a player who might be similar in power to Fukudome, but probably not as much of an OBP machine, they might have to pay $7-8 million per year. Guillen might also cost them a second- or third-round draft pick (depending on who else they sign) and he's got some baggage (having the reputation of being a clubhouse malcontent).

4. Fukudome is an outstanding defensive corner outfielder. The two teams that played in the World Series were the best defensive teams in their leagues. Defense wins games and it's worth money.

Not going through the posting system gives everyone a shot at the outfielder with the great name. He'll probably put up stats a bit below what Hideki Matsui did when he came to the Yankees. I'd pay $10 million a year for that in a heart beat.

Luis Gonzalez wants to play for the Dodgers again now that they hired Joe Torre:

The 40-year-old left fielder, who filed for free agency Wednesday, was dissatisfied with his diminished role on the team and declared at the end of last season that he had no intention of retuning to Los Angeles.

"This is no knock against Grady," Gonzalez said, referring to former manager Grady Little, who resigned Tuesday. "But the credibility that Joe and his coaches bring is definitely intriguing."

Luis must be thinking, "Joe likes to play veterans who don't produce. Maybe he'll play me!" Luckily, the Dodgers are showing no interest in bringing Gonzalez back to the team.

Tyler Kepner mentions the Florida Marlins might be interested in Alex Rodriguez. That would be a fascinating signing. You would think the Marlins would be better off just offering a long term contract to Cabrera. With Miguel two years away from free agency, they could get him long term for a lot less money. However, with Rodriguez, Ramirez and Cabrera in the same lineup for two seasons, the Marlins would have a very good chance of winning the east, especially if the young pitchers recover from their injuries.

The Marlins certainly have the money. They've kept payroll very low for the last two seasons while getting a ton of revenue sharing money. Even with their poor attendance, they should be pretty flush right now.

Sammy Sosa wants $7 million to play baseball next season. That seems like a lot for a player with a .311 OBA. However, it's not that far off. Using the same formula as used on A-Rod, I estimate he's worth about $6 million. I wouldn't spend it, however. Sosa's not likely to improve, and at 39 he could easily fall apart completely. I'd probably give him a contract similar to 2006.

I just received a third-hand tip that Alex Rodriguez is ready to sign with the LA Dodgers.

At 9AM (Pacific time) Rodriguez's management was grabbing an early brunch with friends, one person in the party being an undisclosed high ranking MLB official, in Los Angeles. At this brunch terms of Rodriguez's soon to be signed "5 year contract" we're (sic) discussed in detail.

Our source in the brunch party "overheard" that Rodriguez will take a small pay cut, in relation to his actual market value which was said to be estimated at "$33 million dollars per year," because he has faith that Joe Torre will bring the team to the World Series with in the length of his new managerial contract.

Please take this with a huge grain of salt.

Do the Yankees get draft compensation if A-Rod signs with another team? If New York decides not to pick up an option on Abreu, do they also get compensation? I know compensation is dependent on offering free agents arbitration. Since A-Rod opted out and Abreu would for all intents and purposes get released, do the Yankees even get a chance to offer these players arbitration?

Mark Gonzales notes the decision the White Sox make on Juan Uribe will dictate the team's off-season moves:

Uribe struck out 112 times and had a .284 on-base percentage in 2007, which doesn't mesh with the Sox's stated desire to have their hitters get on base with more frequency and work counts. Uribe was batting .216 at the end of August before a late surge lifted his average to .234.

But picking up Uribe's option would give the Sox some cost certainty heading into an off-season in which they must acquire at least one productive hitter for the top of the order, an experienced reliever and at least a backup shortstop.

Twins center fielder Torii Hunter is a marquee free agent the Sox may pursue, although he could command a salary that exceeds that of any player in franchise history.

There's another player with a good OBA that works the count, and that's Alex Rodriguez. The White Sox could replace Uribe or Crede with A-Rod and greatly improve the team. Reinsdorf once set the baseball world a twitter when he signed Albert Belle to a $55 million, five-year contract, so there is precedent for having the highest paid player in baseball on his team.

Correction: Sorry, wrong Uribe.

The Astros are in the hunt for Torii Hunter early:

The Houston Astros made quick contact with Torii Hunter's agent, Larry Reynolds. That was a surprise team for me, but apparently they're ready to move Hunter Pence to RF. Add the Astros to a list that almost surely will include the Rangers, Yankees and White Sox, and could grow to include the Braves, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Nationals and Cardinals.

Measured by Win Share or VORP, Pence and Hunter made about the same contribution to their teams last year, although Pence did it in about 170 fewer plate appearances. Rightfield was weak offensively for Houston in 2007, so the move makes a lot of sense. It should improve defense in center and offense in right.

My latest Sporting News column looks at how much teams should pay for Alex Rodriguez's production.

Matt Cerrone is impressed with the way Scott Boras creates a market:

...i have spent the better part of two days making posts and linking to words about the Mets and a-rod, none of which are based in fact, and all of which are just rumor and innuendo, yet it keeps happening and will continue to happen...this is not an accident...he is great at using media to spin, disseminate and control the message, all while setting the terms of the discussion...frankly, the way this thing is getting started, i would not be shocked to see a-rod in the White House, instead of playing baseball next season...

I guess Brian Cashman is supposed to be answering his cell phone 24 hours a day:

Brian Cashman fell asleep Sunday night reading a story to his son, Teddy. His cell phone, in another room, kept ringing, mostly calls from reporters trying to reach the New York Yankees general manager for his reaction to Alex Rodriguez opting out of his contract.

Cashman's wife woke him up at about 10:30 and he checked his messages.
"At 9:32 there was a voice mail from Scott Boras to call him. He wanted to give me a heads up on something, was the message," Cashman said Tuesday. "And then at 9:42 was a text message saying he was opting out."

Cashman wished he had gotten the chance to speak with Rodriguez's agent.

"If there was no public announcement from Scott Boras on that, you could still always unring the bell because from the public standpoint, the bell was never rung," Cashman said during a conference call. "I could have said, 'Hey, listen, you sure you want to do this? Let's talk, you know, you take another crack at an opportunity -- can you please, you know, give us an opportunity to sit down and have the dialogue?"'

That conversation never took place.

"Obviously the message was sent, and it was sent loud and clear, you know, through Scott Boras when he announced it the way he did, that the bell couldn't be unrung after that," Cashman said.

It wouldn't matter. Clearly, Boras wanted this to happen on the national stage of the World Series. I doubt Alex made up his mind at 9:41 that evening. And with ten days to opt out, there was no rush to make this announcement. Cashman answering the phone or not, Rodriguez was gone.

This goes back to my post last night about over worked management. Why should anyone being doing business at 9 PM on a Sunday night? What can possibly get done then that couldn't wait until Monday morning? How many managers and GMs need to get burned out before someone takes action?

Torii Hunter filed for free agency Monday, but I find this list of possible suitors odd:

Coming off such an impressive year at the plate, Hunter will likely be offered much more than that by any number of teams in search of a center fielder, a list that could include the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers.

Don't the Yankees and Red Sox already have two centerfielders each? I know that trades happen, but short of that it's not obvious that these two teams would pursue Hunter.

Chronicle of the Lads lays out a few lists with the idea of encouraging the Angels to sign Alex Rodriguez. However, the lists could equally be used to encourage the Angels to sign Barry Bonds.

Athletic Supporters notes that with Alex Rodriguez opting out, the Texas Rangers get a nice windfall of cash. They could use that to get a true ace for the pitching staff. And given the decline of Hank Blalock, they could even afford to sign A-Rod again.

I've seen something like this twice now in stories and comments regarding Alex Rodriguez leaving the Yankees. I'll use Kevin Kernan as an example:

Take A-Rod's offense and presence away from this lineup and you know what you have?

Basically, you have the Angels.

A-Rod hit 54 home runs, drove in 156 RBI and scored 143 runs. I'm going to keep this simple and just take away those numbers from the Yankee totals. That would leave the Yankees with 825 runs, 147 home runs and 773 RBI.

The Angels hit 123 home runs, scored 822 runs and managed 776 RBI.

That's too simple, of course. Anyone batting behind Damon, Jeter and Abreu (and why not keep Bobby at this point?) is going to drive in a lot of runs, simply because that hitter has so many RBI opportunities. It will be like Joe Carter in 1990 batting behind Gwynn, Roberto Alomar and Jack Clark. Carter hit poorly that season and still finished third in the NL RBI race. A competent hitter will drive in 120 runs in that spot.

What probably will be lacking is the set up for the rest of the order. A-Rod did a great job of both hitting for power and getting on base. So he served as a second leadoff man, setting the table for the bottom of the order. It's tough to find players who do those two things really well. So I see the loss of A-Rod lowering run production from the bottom of the order more than I see it hurting run scoring from the top.

Of course, there's nothing wrong with scoring like the Angels if you pitch like them, too. If the youngsters work out in the rotation, there's not the need for offense the Yankees had this season.

Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract yesterday. The manner of his opting out isn't going to make Scott Boras any friends. First, he contacts the AP in the middle of the last game of the World Series so the story runs along side the Red Sox victory. Secondly, he makes a lame excuse for opting out:

Boras made his announcement by e-mailing The Associated Press during the World Series game. The uncertain futures of closer Mariano Rivera, catcher Jorge Posada and pitcher Andy Pettitte, who are potential free agents, affected Rodriguez's thinking. The Yankees are also in the process of hiring a manager to replace Joe Torre.

"Alex wanted to know what the composition of the team was going to be," Boras said. "What those players are going to do is important. He didn't want to have a deadline on making this decision." Boras spoke to General Manager Brian Cashman about Rodriguez's decision by telephone.

"He told me to thank Alex for all that he had done," Boras said. "He told me that he was a great player."

For all his talk of wanting to stay in New York, A-Rod and Boras didn't even give the Yankees a chance to keep the third baseman. That's fine, but a simple, "I think I can do better on the open market," would suffice.

Of course, I understand Boras' game. Scott needs bidders for Rodriguez, and if he negotiated with the Yankees for ten days, he runs the risk of scaring suitors away by rejecting a big offer. With the way the World Series played out, he also ran the risk of losing Boston as a bidder as they might decided to re-sign Lowell quickly. Now Boston gets to make a decision between having Mike for his decline or A-Rod setting records for eight years. They could even do both and move Alex back to shortstop!

And Boston is the key. If the Red Sox enter the bidding, it will be difficult for the Yankees to stay out. That could make the price for Alex very high. Of course, it could all backfire and both Boston and New York stay out. With the Mets having no need for Alex, what other team is going to spend the big bucks? Are Dodgers going to talk to Scott after Drew leaving? The Cubs ownership is up in the air. The Cardinals don't seem that eager to spend money now that they have a new park and a World Championship.

It may come down to Texas again. Hank Blalock hasn't exactly been the Rodriguez of the future. And the Astros want to win again, and want to win quickly. A Berkman-Lee-Rodriguez heart of the order with Pence setting them up seems like a good way to score runs. Even Cleveland, with their fan base returning and no World Series Championship since 1948 might want to put themselves on the map with Rodriguez, unless they still think Marte is the answer at the hot corner.

There's a lot of gamesmanship going on here, so it's tough to see the true motives of the players. But it's already an interesting off season.

Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract today. River Ave. Blues is a bit upset.

I'm surprised he at least didn't entertain an offer from the Yankees, especially as he said he wanted to stay in New York. With the Yankees claiming they won't go after him if he opts out, the A-Rod haters in the Bronx got what they wanted.

Joe Christensen clears up some rumors about Carlos Silva and Torii Hunter. On Hunter:

He plans to go to the winter meetings, which run Dec. 5-8 in Nashville. I think he's going to enjoy this free agent stuff to the hilt.

He gave one rather cryptic quote to The Pioneer Press: "There's other stuff, inside stuff, that people don't know about. Money has something to do with it, but trust me, that's just a percentage. We need to talk about stuff that needs to change before we start to get into deep talks."

I asked him about this, and he measured his words carefully.

"It has nothing to do with money," he said. "I'm telling you. People don't believe that. But all that matters to me is the ring."

I bet he doesn't play for free to get the ring. :-) Torii is an out machine that hits for some power. He's coming off his second best year at age 31. Hunter's not a franchise player, he's a good piece to a puzzle. The team that signs him needs to realize he's never had a good OBA, and he's likely starting to decline. So maybe it's good he wants a ring more than money, because I don't think he's going to get an enormous contract.

Darren Heitner points out that Mike Lowell is hurting himself financially:

In response to a question about his feelings on A-Rod's impending decision on whether or not to opt out of his current contract with the Yankees, Lowell said, "I love it here and would love to re-sign here. I'm making that clear." [Lowell: 'I love it here'].

Again, I think it is great that Lowell has those feelings. And in fact, he should express them to the world once he re-signs with the Red Sox (if he re-signs, actually). But while he is a free agent coming off the best statistical year of his career, he should probably keep those feelings to himself so that he may play for the team that he loves and make more money at the same time.

A-Rod and the Yankees want to stay together, but each created enough tension that the neither is going to get exactly what they want to keep Alex on the team. That negotiation will no doubt go down to the last minute, but I bet Rodriguez stays.

Andrew Marchand looks at A-Rod's possible contract negotiations:

"The right of free agency has probably never been more valuable to a single player than it would be to someone like Alex Rodriguez," Boras said during a phone interview with 1050 ESPN New York conducted prior to the Yankees ALDS loss to the Indians. "The reason being is that he is a stature player, a durable player, an iconic player and he has had a historic season. Again, these are decisions that Alex has to make. He is certainly happy in New York and has enjoyed playing there."

Boras, known as one of baseball's shrewdest and most hard-nosed negotiators, tipped his hand Monday as to what negotiations would be like if Rodriguez opts out. He said he will tell prospective bidders that Rodriguez could play until he is 45, which will allow him to not only become baseball's all-time home run king, but also the all-time hits leader. If those accomplishments are within reach, Boras said he will argue that Rodriguez will be worth somewhere between a half-billion and a billion dollars over a decade to a team's regional sports network.

"One of the other things that Alex has that some of the other things that Alex has that few players have is he has network value," Boras said. "That means for a regional sports network he has an impact on in that may allow that regional sports network to increase by a half-a-billion to a billion dollars over a 10-year period because of the ratings increase that he will bring. His fan base will subscribe to that network to watch him play and they will sell more advertising. This has certainly been evidenced in New York."

Boras is saying that because Alex has a chance to catch both Bonds and Rose, he's worth $50 million a year. That's a lot of money to commit to one player over a long time period. I'm guessing team won't go that high, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go to $35 million. The Yankees may go even higher than that since if they extend rather than sign him as a free agent, Texas pays $20 million of the contract.

What I'd try to do is extend the contract to cover the next five year guaranteed. Then build in a continuously renewing team option, much like Tim Wakefield has with Boston. In five years, Alex should have around 700 home runs, leaving him two or three years from the record, depending on how much longer Bonds plays. As long as he's on a pace to set records, the team keeps renewing. And if he gets injured, the team is off the hook. And if indeed Rodriguez keeps on a pace to break Rose's hit record, so much the better. A $35 million a year contract that renews for twelve years grosses Alex $420 million. Not a bad payday for anyone.

Dan Lewis lists potential free agents at ArmChairGM. He'll keep the wiki up-to-date throughout the winter.

The Braves said goodbye to Andruw Jones today, paving the way for him to become a free agent this winter:

Indeed, the move was not unexpected as the 30-year-old Jones batted only .222 in the final season of his $75 million contract. He's eligible to file for free agency after the World Series.

"It just doesn't work for us," Schuerholz said. "It doesn't demean or diminish everything he's done."

The Braves plan to use the money they'll save on Jones to bolster their starting rotation -- a glaring weakness beyond John Smoltz and Tim Hudson -- and to sign first baseman Mark Teixeira, who made $9 million this year and is eligible for arbitration.

I wonder how much Jones will make next year. There is some competition in centerfield as Torii Hunter also hits the free agent market along with Mike Cameron and Aaron Rowand. That's a pretty good supply of centerfielders, which might keep the price lower.

Aaron Gleeman muses on the probable departure of Torii Hunter from Minnesota:

Seeing his Twins career wind down is sad, but the fact that Hunter turned down a chance to remain in Minnesota makes it a little easier to take. I don't think Hunter handled his pending free agency very well publicly, but I don't blame him one bit for wanting to maximize his earning potential. Still, at the end of the day he's choosing money over remaining with the Twins. Rather than take $45 or maybe even $60 million to stay in Minnesota, he'll likely be getting $75 or $90 million to leave.

That's obviously a huge difference, but if Hunter truly had his heart set on staying with the Twins he could do so while still making a huge amount of money. I'm of the opinion that the difference between $45 or $60 million and $75 or $90 million is a lot smaller than it looks, but a) that's easy for me to say when I'll never come close to making that type of money, and b) I have no idea whether or not Hunter actually wants to stay with the Twins regardless of the money involved.

If he does, then my guess is that he'll regret leaving over money. However, it's very possible that he's simply ready to move on or at least willing to move on enough that he values maximizing his salary over remaining in Minnesota, in which case my only beef is with the way he tried to spin the situation in the media. I'd love to see Hunter return, but committing $75 or $90 million to a 32-year-old center fielder with a .271/.325/.470 career hitting line just isn't something that makes sense of the Twins.

I'm not sure I'd want to sign Hunter to the lower number, either, unless it was three years or less. Torii's strength offensively is his power. If his power goes, there's not a lot there to make up for it. (For example, look at J.D. Drew. His power disappeared this season, but at least he was able to post a .365 OBA, a positive in a bad season.) Is a .270/.330/.400 player worth $15 million a year?

Twins fans got to enjoy the prime of Hunter's career. If he does walk, they won't need to suffer the decline.

Jorge Posada decided to give free agency a try at the end of the season. While I'm sure Yankees fans would like to see Posada finish his career in the Bronx, I understand that the Yankees may not wish to commit to a long term contract. Maybe the Yankees should do what the Red Sox did with Tim Wakefield, a perpeturally renewing contract. In this case, the Yankees can agree to pay Posada a very healthy salary, and as long as Jorge keeps his production up, the Yankees keep renewing. I suppose they could pay a lose base amount, and then pay for each game he plays. That way, if he becomes a backup catcher, the Yankees can still afford to keep him around.

The Yankees poor starting pitching cost them in signing Clemens:

Cashman had a standing offer to Clemens of $25.5 million, from a meeting with Hendricks in March. The Yankees' recent urgency gave Clemens leverage in negotiations and essentially cost the Yankees an extra $2.5 million.

Privately, the Yankees had been determined since last winter not to be outbid for Clemens, who made a prorated portion of $22 million with the Astros last year. His current annual salary is the highest in baseball.

Another advantage for the Yankees was they wanted Roger now, whereas the Red Sox and Houston asked to wait until the end of June. Clemens wants to pitch as soon as possible, so that helped move the Yankees to the top of the list.

New York's rotation by the middle of June is likely to be Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Clemens and Hughes. That should be enough with this offense, even if Roger only goes six innings a start.

My dad just called to tell me that there was an announcement during the seventh inning stretch by Roger Clemens that he's joining the Yankees. It was a complete surprise. I'll see if I can find a story.

Update: Yes is interviewing Clemens right now. He said this happened over the last 48 hours. He was talking to Pettitte last night and didn't say anything to Andy about the potential deal.

Update: Clemens just said he wants to pitch for the Yankees by the end of the month.

Update: Looks like Jeter's emails were a big part of Roger coming back.

Update: Roger says he's looking forward to working with the young pitchers on the Yankees.

Update: It sounds like Clemens isn't sure of the terms of his contract.

Update: That's the end of the interview. Roger is back with New York, and from the tone of his voice, he seems to be driven to help his friends on this team win one more World Series. If he comes back on June 1, it will be against the Red Sox at Fenway. That could be a lot of fun.

Barry Bonds is officially a Giant again:

Barry Bonds finally signed his $15.8 million, one-year contract Thursday, and the slugger is scheduled to report to spring training Monday.

No reason was given for what caused Bonds to relent. I suspect, however, it was Barry Zito using Bonds' chair.

The Orioles reached an agreement with Steve Trachsel to fill in for the injured Kris Benson.

The deal, which will pay the 36-year-old right-hander between $3 and $3.5 million, is pending a physical, which could happen as early as today, the source said. Trachsel has a 134-143 career record and a 4.28 ERA in 13 big league seasons.

Trachsel posted a 15-8 record despite a poor ERA in 2006, the third highest ERA of his career. He's moving to a higher scoring park in a league with a DH, so I don't expect his ERA to be going down. And the Orioles offense isn't exactly as good as the Mets. He could end up 8-15 this season.

Larry Galla of Houston wants the Astros to end the Roger Clemens era.

But there is an element that certain players are trying to force upon the game that is disturbing: the notion that "I am bigger than the game." I'm sure Barry Bonds immediately popped into a lot of baseball fans' minds. Bonds is definitely the epitome of this attitude.

Unfortunately, that arrogance has slithered closer to home. Yep, the new contender for the all-time narcissist crown: Roger Clemens. At least Bonds is somewhat open with his self-importance, but Clemens is more like an extortionist, making middle-of-the-night phone calls to his victim, then not saying anything. Just letting his quarry know that he's there and in control.

As long as Clemens returns value for the money spent, and as long as multiple teams show interest, Roger is going to be in control of his game.

It looks like the Mets are about to sign Chan Ho Park.

One Korean report valued the deal with the Mets at $3 million, with a 2009 option. The Padres reportedly recently offered Park an opportunity to re-sign as a long-relief/spot starter - a role Jorge Sosa also could occupy with the Mets.

The Mets strategy for building a pitching staff is to keep buying pitchers who were once good and hope they're good again. Unless I'm missing something in New York's farm system, they've done very little to build the team long term in the off-season. I have no problem with a win now organization, but the Mets are getting close to stepping on the treadmill that forces them to plug holes every year rather than have a continuous stream of players flowing out of their farm system. I'm not up on the Mets minor leagues, so Met fans, please correct me if I'm wrong. Are these just stop-gap moves while players develop?

The Oakland Athletics added Shannon Stewart to their group of outfielders, and Athletics Nation likes the move:

I really like this move. Stewart can be a really great leadoff hitter and is very good defensively when he's healthy. Of course that's a big caveat because he hasn't been that healthy in recent seasons. He was healthiest in 2005 and before that 2003. This is a really good depth move and I like the fact that it was an incentive-laden contract. I do feel much better about it. The person who shouldn't? Dan Johnson.

I wonder if Stewart did something other than physical to show his foot problems were going away? I'm less optimistic about Stewart. He hasn't played well since 2004, and he'll be 33 in 2007. That's an age where a player can disappear as easily as he can make a comeback.

Sportszilla is running an experiment and wants you to participate. Pick a team of all free agents with very little thought. Mine is posted in the comments.

Hat tip, Baseball Primer Newsblog.

Rick Helling retired today, sort of.

Right-hander Rick Helling says he is retiring from Major League baseball after 12 years, to spend more time with his family.

That and nobody offered him a job. That's more like being laid off.

Jon Heyman says MLB is happy with the snag in Bonds' contract:

Top-level MLB people are holding to a glimmer of hope that the contract for controversial slugger Barry Bonds, which was done with the Giants a couple days ago, might still come undone. While they aren't sure what happened to cause the latest discord between the Giants and Bonds, they cling to the longshot hope it could cause a deal that has already been signed by both parties to unravel.

The latest hiccup came after the commissioner's office balked at an agreed-upon provision requiring Bonds to attend a specific number of team functions and promotional events, though the removal of that provision appeared to most folks to be a small issue compared to several others in what both sides have described as "complex" negotiations. That's especially true since, as one Bonds confident put it, "Barry does what Barry wants anyway." That has led to speculation that something more had to be going on.

Jon suggests that the something might be Magowen's letter to fans:

Magowan explained the controversial signing in terms of long-range objectives and stressed that it's only a one-year deal. He wrote, "Additionally, we felt that with these assurances, signing Barry to a one-year contract helped us pursue a long-term strategy toward getting the club back on track. With his presence in our lineup and only a one-year contractual commitment, we were able to avoid the temptation to trade away some of our valuable young pitching talent and were able to free up long-range funds to acquire a front line pitcher. These decisions enabled us to sign Barry Zito, retain our promising and highly sought-after young pitchers and fill our need for a power hitter in the middle of our lineup. We believe that this combination of moves provides the Giants with a better chance of winning in 2007 and in the years ahead."

I'm someone who believe there's no such thing as bad publicity. A Bonds home run chase of Aaron will bring attention to MLB all year. And, as Tim Kurkjian points out, it will bring a lot of positive press for Henry Aaron. I understand why people don't want Bonds to break the record. My guess, however, is that the pursuit will be a net positive for baseball, just for bringing in the eyeballs.

Barry Bonds remains unsigned as of the latest news out of San Francisco. This whole deal is turning into a train wreck. The Giants sent him a new contract after making changes to please the commissioner's office, but:

Borris, without elaborating, told the Associated Press on Wednesday, "At this time, Barry is not signing the new documents."

Secondly, Borris doesn't believe the indictment language in the orginial contract is enforceable:

Meantime, Borris insists a provision that would allow the Giants to terminate the contract if Bonds is indicted in the BALCO steroids case isn't enforceable, though Borris agreed to include the provision in the contract. Borris said the collective bargaining agreement supersedes the "Giants' unilateral assertions."

So why sign that contract in the first place? Does this mean Bonds doesn't intend to stand by a written agreement, or just that the union will break the deal if the Giants try to enforce the agreement? I'm so confused right now.

The commissioner's office negated the contract struck between Barry Bonds and the Giants:

The unusual provision could set off a legal test between the rights in an individual player's contract and rights under the union's collective bargaining agreement. The language, included in the deal that was completed Monday night, is designed by the team to protect itself in case Bonds is charged in the federal government's steroids investigation.

Bonds' personal trainer, Greg Anderson, is in a California federal prison because he has refused to testify whether Bonds committed perjury when he told a 2003 grand jury he never knowingly used performance-enhancing drugs.

Complicating matters, the version of Bonds' contract that was sent to the commissioner's office by the Giants was not approved, Bonds' agent, Jeff Borris, said late Tuesday. Borris said the team was redrafting the agreement to address the provisions in question and sending him a revised version by express mail for Bonds to review and sign. Borris wouldn't specify what was at issue.

The union says the indictment clause is unenforceable. Seems both management and the union are in agreement on this. Is it possible the Giants can't get what they want, and if so, do they go ahead with the contract? Or at this point, do they have to agree to a deal and live with the risk that Bonds may not be available to them?

Update: According to ESPN, the problem the commissioner's office has is with a personal appearance clause.

Complicating matters, Bonds' contract was not approved by the commissioner's office because it contained a personal-appearance provision, a baseball executive said Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity because those details had not been made public.

Victor Zambrano signed a minor league deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Unlike the recent signings of starters John Thomson and Tomo Ohka, Zambrano won't be 100 per cent at spring training. But he could be ready by mid-season, perhaps able to give the Jays a boost should one of their starters struggle or get injured.

''We've always liked his arm,'' said general manager J.P. Ricciardi. ''We like that he's pitched in the AL East with some success. There's still some rehab that needs to go on but we sent someone to watch him throw in Venezuela and it looks like he's coming back.''

The deal includes a club option for 2008.

It's a good move by the Blue Jays. It's not costing them that much money, and if Zambrano comes back healthy, he's a good pitcher on a high scoring team. He's not going to win a Cy Young award, but he could be a solid #4 starter.

The AP details the out clauses in Barry Bonds' contract:

As part of the agreement, if Bonds is indicted the Giants have the right to terminate it under two sections of the Uniform Player Contract, a baseball executive said Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity because the team didn't announce that detail.

Under 7(b)(1), a team may terminate a contract if the player shall "fail, refuse or neglect to conform his personal conduct to the standards of good citizenship and good sportsmanship or to keep himself in first-class physical condition or to obey the club's training rules."

Section 7(b)(3) gives the team the right to end the deal if a player shall "fail, refuse or neglect to render his services hereunder or in any manner materially breach this contract."

In addition, the Giants have the less drastic option of converting Bonds' deal to nonguaranteed, the baseball executive said. Players with nonguaranteed contracts can be released before opening day for 30 or 45 days' termination pay, depending on the timing.

As part of the deal, Bonds gave up the right to ask the players' association to file a grievance if he is indicted and the contract is terminated. But nothing would stop the union from pursuing a grievance on its own.

It seems those apply to any player, the agreement is about Bonds not fighting the invocation of those clauses.

Barry Bonds signed his new contract last night, and he's losing space in the San Francisco locker room:

Bonds' one-year, $15.8 million contract was made official Monday night, and one of the contract's provisions is that the left fielder can't have his entourage -- notably his two personal trainers -- anywhere at the ballpark, including the clubhouse, trainers' room, dugout or field.

That should have been done a long time ago. And although the Giants didn't spell it out, they extracted some protection for themselves:

After the sides agreed on financial terms on Dec. 7 -- a $15.8 million base salary with performance clauses that could push it to $20 million -- it took nearly two months to complete the final language, which the Giants used to try to protect themselves in case Bonds misses time for being called to court

"It was a complex, lengthy, unconventional contract," Baer said. "We needed to get some reasonable assurances and protections in several areas, and those were achieved. We got those."

Now the question becomes, will Bonds body hold up to the chase? I was impressed at how well he performed last year. I still think he shouldn't be as feared as in the past, so once again we'll watch to see if pitchers go after him. Given the poor quality of the Giants lineup, there's not much reason to do that.

Jeff Weaver passed his physical and is now a member of the Seattle Mariners:

The deal with the includes $1 million in performance bonuses for the 30-year-old right-hander, who helped the St. Louis win its first World Series title since 1982: $300,000 each for 180 innings or 28 starts, and 190 innings or 30 starts, and $400,000 for 200 innings or 32 starts.

Weaver also would receive $50,000 if he makes the All-Star team, $200,000 for winning the Cy Young Award and $50,000 for a Gold Glove award. Should the Mariners, who have finished last in the AL West for three consecutive seasons, have an astounding year, Weaver could get $50,000 for being the MVP of the AL championship series and $100,000 for being the World Series MVP.

That's fine, Weaver probably needs the motivation. But what is this?

"We felt that signing Jeff gave us a great opportunity to add another veteran starter to our young mix," Seattle general manger Bill Bavasi said. "Jeff has consistently pitched deep into ball games, and gives his club a chance to win. He has appeared in the postseason in four of the last five years, so he knows what it takes to get to that level, and to succeed in those situations."

Just what I expect from Bavasi, GM spin for "he's not very good, so we'll make something up." He may go deep into games, but over the last two seasons he's been a time bomb waiting to go off in the 5th through 7th. Maybe he needed a few months of Dave Duncan to turn him around. Maybe he'll finally show the promise of his youth. I think the odds are against that, however.

Barry Bonds takes his physical today, meaning the Giants and the slugger worked out their contract differences.

Bonds traveled to the Bay Area from his home in Beverly Hills, Calif., for the physical. If the 42-year-old star and his oft-injured knees check out OK, he'll sign a one-year deal for $15.8 million.

He can earn another $4.2 million in performance bonuses based on how much he plays. If he matches last year's effort -- 493 plate appearances, 130 games -- he'll get the whole amount.

So we get a summer of controversy as Barry heads for the career home run record.

Here's what J.D. Drew said about his shoulder yesterday:

"Extremely confident," the 31-year-old said about his shoulder during a teleconference yesterday. "The thing that was really beneficial was to see where it was at the end of last season [with the Dodgers], to see the swing and everything kind of come back around as far as the strength and power numbers go. Those were telltale signs for me. This offseason's been a great chance for me to catch up on the strength gains and get a lot of work in."

This seems to confirm the thoughts that he did go through a weak period in the middle of the season in 2006 as he recovered from labrum surgery.

6-4-2's Rob McMillin heard Jered Weaver give a speech last night in which he said brother Jeff was a Mariner. That's more definitive than we've been hearing in the press.

The Red Sox worked out their contract with J.D. Drew, according to Boras:

There was no official acknowledgment from the Sox yesterday, club spokesman John Blake saying the team had no comment.

But sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations said all parties have signed off on an agreement that allows the Sox to achieve their goal of making Drew their right fielder and No. 5 hitter, while giving the team the right to void either of the last two years of the deal, or both, should Drew's right shoulder render him unable to play.

Drew is not expected to be in Boston for today's announcement.

Under the terms of the contract, if Drew goes on the disabled list in his third year for issues related to the shoulder for a proscribed length of time, the Sox have the option to void the final two years. If he winds up on the disabled list in his fourth year, the Sox have the option of voiding the final year.

So it's a three year guarantee. I don't know if insurers have changed, but a few years ago that was the maximum length of insurance you could get on a player. It seems the Red Sox are self-insuring.

Still, a healthy Drew was the best hitter on the market. The Red Sox heart of the order just became more formidable.

It looks like Bud Selig is still stuck in the 1980s.

Lerner said that last week at the owners' quarterly meetings, Selig "lectured us" for 90 minutes about the dangers of spending too much in free agency. Lerner said he shared that concern following an offseason that paid off both for stars -- such as former National Alfonso Soriano, who received $136 million over eight years from the Chicago Cubs -- and mid-level performers such as new Kansas City pitcher Gil Meche, who will make $55 million over the next five years. Such deals, Lerner said, have been a surprising introduction to baseball.

"In the real estate business and in some of our other businesses, there seems to be some sanity to it," Lerner said. "People continue asking me the question, 'Are you having fun?' The answer is, 'On occasion.' "

Spending money on free agents creates buzz in the game. It's good for the game (although it may not work out for each individual team). Selig, after 35 years in the business ought to know that. And I guess all this spending irks Lerner because part of it is his money from the purchase of the Nationals.

But the Nationals have a plan that's been proven to work:

Mark Lerner said that while he didn't believe it made sense for the Nationals to invest heavily in a free agent market that he called "shocking," the club plans on raising payroll beginning with the 2008 season.

"There's no question in our mind that it's going to happen," Mark Lerner said. "I can't tell you the exact amounts, but that's always the plan. So hopefully everything works out with the new stadium, and we're going to back up what we've been saying all along.

"But you have to remember with free agency, you have to use it selectively. You can't go crazy. And if we get to the point where one or two quality free agents takes us to the next level, that's when you dip into it. I think that's always been Stan's plan with the Braves [for whom he served as president for 17 seasons], and that's going to be our plan."

And that should work for any team, regardless of revenue.

It's official, Cliff Floyd joined the Cubs today:

Floyd, a Chicago native, could split time in left field with Matt Murton and also give the Cubs a left-handed bat off the bench. "It gives us a a lot depth. It will enable us to survive if we have an injury by having an extra quality, quality player on the club, which obviously our depth was a problem last year when D-Lee (Derek Lee) went down," Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said.

Floyd, who spent the previous four years with the New York Mets, can make an additional $4.5 million this year in bonuses based on plate appearances and time on the active 25-man roster. The deal includes a mutual option for 2008 that could become guaranteed if he has 100 games started or 425 plate appearances this year.

He could earn $17.5 million over two years if he has 550 plate appearances each season and $15.5 million if he has 500 each season.

When healthy, Floyd is a good player. But he's also 34, and on top of the injuries, he's also facing a decline due to age. I'd rather see Murton get a full shot, but it's not a lot of money to spend for a chance at one or two good years from Cliff.

Earlier today I wrote about Darin Erstad:

If he really wants to win, he'll go with the White Sox. If he wants to play everyday, he'll take the Marlins. Miami is warmer, too, which might be nice for someone who played his career in southern California.

He's gone with the winner, opting for a contract with the Chicago White Sox.

Erstad, who underwent surgery in October to repair an injured right ankle that limited him to 40 games last season, is expected to challenge youngster Brian Anderson for the center-field job in Chicago.

But with news that White Sox left fielder Scot Podsednik underwent groin surgery today and will be sidelined for the next six weeks, Erstad could also play some left field. Erstad, 32, and Anderson could also platoon in center.

So he'll get some playing time. The Chicago centerfielders hit poorly last season, so if Erstad can just get back to his career averages he'll improve the offense at the position.

The Blue Jays brought Toma Ohka back to Canada.

Ohka is 41-41 since becoming a full-time starter in 2002. Of the 102 pitchers with at least 600 innings pitches since 2002, only nine received less run support per game (4.61 runs/nine innings).

Toronto, in need of another starting pitcher, was attractive to Ohka because of the possibility of getting run support from one of the best lineups in baseball.

Of course, Ohka was playing in the National League where run support should be lower, anyway. It's an interesting way to spin the signing, however. The Blue Jays are basically saying his record does not reflect his value. I'd be more concerned that his strikeouts were down and his walks were up in 2006.

WasWatching notes a sign that Roger Clemens is coming to the Yankees. Actually, the change of numbers can happen anytime. Plenty of players give up numbers when a star joins the team mid-season. Maybe the Yankees are on the verge of a deal to bring in Roger for all of 2007.

Ken Rosenthal notes the Marlins are offering Darin Erstad a chance to be their regular centerfielder.

Erstad, 32, is expected to make his decision this week, Genske told FOXSports.com. The 11-year veteran, who has spent his entire career with the Angels, is seeking both an opportunity to win and chance to play every day.

The Marlins, who have failed in their attempts to land a young center fielder this off-season, want Erstad to be their regular in center.

The White Sox could use Erstad, a left-handed hitter, in a center-field platoon with Brian Anderson and also as a backup to Paul Konerko at first base.

If he really wants to win, he'll go with the White Sox. If he wants to play everyday, he'll take the Marlins. Miami is warmer, too, which might be nice for someone who played his career in southern California.

Marlins centerfielders hit poorly in aggregate last seasons (228/.298/.344). However, that was better than Darin hit in 2006 in a very small sample size. If Erstad, healthy, can come close to his 2005 numbers, it will be a nice improvement at the position for the Marlins. His numbers are very poor for a first baseman, but as a centerfielder they're okay.

The Colorado Rockies signed Brian Lawrence to a one-year contract:

Lawrence, who did not pitch last season due to surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff, also had drawn strong interest from the Mariners, with the Pirates and Padres also involved in the bidding.

Lawrence's strength as a pitcher is his control. He's never struck out that many batters. However, he does have a history of giving up the long ball, which won't go over well in Coors.

Peter Friberg writes:

No Wells post?

I actually did link to the Wells story in the DirecTV post last night. But here's a direct link:

The Padres and Wells' agent reached preliminary agreement Friday on a one-year, $3 million contract plus incentives that will give the 43-year-old left-hander the chance to earn a maximum of $7 million if he makes 27 starts, sources told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

Padres general manager Kevin Towers said the two sides need to finalize some contract language and Wells must pass a physical. He expects the deal to be finalized by Monday or Tuesday.

The physical is going to say Wells is fine, but remember he spent half of last season on the DL, and he's another year older. He won't walk many batters and may strike out fewer. He's going to say things that are both funny and controversial. I suspect he'll have a few beers. I hope the Padres have a good young pitcher waiting in the wings if David goes down with another back problem.

To be serious for a moment, Wells does not go deep in games anymore. Neither does Maddux. Over the last two years, the Padres strained their very good bullpen by trotting out poor starters. Now, they're going to strain their very good bullpen by trotting out old starters. They may win more games, because the old starters are good, but the strain on the bullpen will be real nonetheless. It's a good rotation, but only because they can afford to receive short outings from 40% of the starters.

The Indians signed Trot Nixon to a one-year deal:

Nixon, 32, will be the Indians' right fielder against right-handed pitching, a role that was originally intended for Shin-Soo Choo. Against left-handers, the Indians will move Casey Blake from first to right, with Kelly Shoppach playing catcher and Victor Martinez first base.

Choo, 24, still looms as the Indians' right fielder in 2008, but the Indians opted for Nixon's experience in '07, knowing they need to compete with the Twins, White Sox and A.L. champion Tigers.

If you're 24 and still not ready for a full-time major league job, are you ever going to be ready?

MetsBlog.com notes that you can still make up a complete NL team from the available free agents.

...i always wonder how one of these teams would do in a regular season...a team of refugees like this, who are motivated, could certainly perform better than the Nationals, which unfortunately says a lot about the strategy in D.C...

Well, the lineup is pretty bad. Using Marcel projections, a lineup of those eight position players and league average pitcher hitting yields a best lineup that scores 670 runs. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays were last in runs scored in 2006 with 689 runs. So this would be a really bad team, which is probably why these players are still available.

Baseball Crank notes the signing of Craig Wilson by the Braves. So, for less money than they'd pay LaRoche, the Braves put together a left-right platoon at first. Wilson in his career hits lefties much better than righties, while Thorman showed more power last year against righties. That seems like a low cost, high value solution to a problem at first base.

The mess that is the Barry Bonds contract negotiations keep getting more tangled. Via Deadspin, it seems there's ample opportunity for a dispute if the Giants end the negotiations.

According to multiple industry sources, the Giants cannot use the failed drug test to walk away from the contract because legally they should not have received the confidential information. Even if the Giants decided to nullify the deal for other reasons, Bonds could argue in a grievance that the drug test was the real cause and win a judgment.

Moreover, one lawyer who works in the industry but is not connected to Bonds or the Giants said if the deal crumbles, Bonds might have a strong case against MLB or the union for sabotaging it if he can prove one or the other leaked the positive amphetamine test.

On the other hand, Bonds' case might be weakened because he and the Giants did not submit a letter of agreement to MLB and the union when they reached financial terms, which would have made it binding. The Giants say that was Bonds' choice, because he wanted certain contract issues settled first.

The Giants and Bonds struck their tentative agreement Dec. 7. Bonds' agent, Jeff Borris, who declined comment Wednesday, had predicted it would take weeks to complete the language.

I'm guessing this is a negotiating tactic by the Giants. They knew all the dirt. If they didn't want Barry, all they had to do was say no to a new contract. My bet is they're using a new leak of their intentions to walk away from the deal to force Bonds to accept their version of the contract. My guess is the entourage disappears.

It's tough to negotiate a contract in two languages:

The source described the talks as, "Combine medical language and legal language into one, and that's what you're up against. Every time there's medical language proposed, it takes a couple of days to decipher it. And then there are discussions back and forth and revisions are made. Both sides are looking for precise language to protect their assets."

They need to find a doctor who speaks lawyer.

Royals Authority goes outside the box to find a positive in the Gil Meche deal:

Signing Gil Meche to a 55 million dollar deal immediately put an end to the 'we can't compete in an unfair market' melodrama that has played behind the scenes out at Kaufmann Stadium. Inking a 28 year old just entering his prime as opposed to a 36 year old just leaving it, changed the mindset of the organization from 'hoping to compete' to 'planning to win'. More than anything else, Dayton Moore, put the Royals back in the game.

This year, Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt would not return
Moore's calls, next year the big name guys might at least listen to the voice mail. The year after that, they probably even return the call. That will happen even if Gil Meche never posts an ERA under 4.00 and Octavio Dotel's arm flies off.

It will happen even more if he Gil proves successful.

The Texas Rangers offered Sammy Sosa a minor league contract.

"Sammy came across as hungry and humble, just looking for an opportunity," Daniels said. "We're not placing any expectations on the situation. It's a second chance for him."

Sosa's agent, Adam Katz, could not be reached for comment.

Sosa worked out for the Rangers in the Dominican Republic this off-season and most recently in the batting cages at Ameriquest Field on Monday. The 38-year-old had dinner with Daniels and several other Rangers' personnel before flying out later that evening.

After a year off, and at seasonal age 38, I don't expect a big comeback from Sammy. But there's not a lot of downside for the Rangers, and at least they get to try to fix the mistake they made back in 1989.

The Athletics are no longer interested in Darin Erstad.

Sammy Sosa worked out for the Rangers in Texas.

Sammy Sosa worked out again Monday for the Texas Rangers, the team he began his career with, before meeting general manager Jon Daniels and other club officials.

"The workouts and subsequent conversations have been positive. He seems committed to proving himself again -- made it clear he wants to contribute to a winning environment," Daniels wrote in an e-mail late Monday night. "We had good baseball discussion about our club, where he's at in his career, and whether there's a fit."

Baseballistic thinks bringing Sammy back as the right-handed DH is a low risk option. However, if Sosa is coming back to reach the 600 home run plateau, a right-handed platoon situation likely won't give him enough at bats. A younger Sosa could easily hit 12 homers in 150 plate appearances, but I'm not sure the current version can come close to that.

The St. Louis Cardinals are interested in bringing back Jeff Weaver, but the two sides differ in the length of the contract.

With Weaver reportedly seeking a four-year deal worth about $10 million annually, the Redbirds all but excused themselves from the Weaver chase until La Russa contacted the righthander shortly after New Year's Day. Weaver voiced a desire to return but also a need for stability after shuttling from Detroit to New York to Los Angeles to Anaheim and then St. Louis in his career.

"I made it clear to Jeff that we'd like to have him back," La Russa said. "I think his concerns are about finding some stability -- staying in one place for a while."

The Cardinals are more interested in offering a two-year deal. I like the way the article describes the market for Jeff:

The market for Weaver remains difficult to define but apparently falls shy of initial reports. The New York Mets have expressed persistent but undefined interest.

Weaver is a very tough pitcher to value. At his best, a four-year, $40 million deal makes sense. But at his lows are so frequent teams shy away from offering him a long term deal. Maybe an incentive laden contract is the best deal for Weaver.

The Good Phight is unhappy with the Phillies signing Antonio Alfonseca:

The Ed Wade Regime should have taught us that pouring former closers onto the bullpen fire will solve nothing. Another in a long line of PVMRs (Proven Veteran Middle Relievers) brought in and given crucial late-inning roles. Shades of Roberto Hernandez, Mike Williams, Turk Wendell, Arthur Rhodes... and as a former closer, you just know he's going to have the Set-up Guy mantle handed to him. It's enough to make you barf. Why was I born here?

He's only thrown 43 1/3 innings over the last two seasons. This strikes me as more of a flyer on a once good pitcher. If he works out at all, he's a steal.

6-4-2 Is not impressed that Billy Beane made an offer to Darin Erstad. Maybe it's a fake; if Beane shows interest in Erstad, maybe an AL West opponent will think he's good and spend too much money on Darin. :-)

It seems like Erstad's been around forever, but his seasonal age will be just 33 in 2007. If Darin can post a .340 OBA again, he'll be valuable to the A's.

John Thomson doesn't like Paul Lo Duca:

Thomson agreed to a $500,000, one-year contract with the Blue Jays on Tuesday and will get a chance to win a spot in their rotation during spring training. The right-hander said the Mets also offered a major league deal, but he wasn't interested.

"As far as just looking at Paul Lo Duca across the field, I'm not really into how he acts behind the plate," Thomson said on a conference call. "I know a bit about [Toronto catcher] Gregg Zaun and I know he wants to win and he's not going to let anything get in his way to do that, and I like that.

There's no other reasons given in the article. Does anyone know of a spat between Thomson and Lo Duca? Paul is 4 for 10 against John with two home runs. I wonder if Lo Duca show boated after one of the dingers?

Ryan at Cardinals Diaspora writes:

Local sports radio here in MO is reporting that Mulder has resigned with the Cards. I don't mind him coming back; in fact, I think it might help to save some face on the Haren/Barton trade. However, I think the second year could really bite us given the probability he'll be league average at best. If management wants or needs to upgrade during this season or for the 2008 season, that will be a heavy load to bear on the bottom line. Ah, the free agent pitching market, could Adam Smith himself have ever visualized it?

It's a great example of supply and demand at work. Over the last two years, Mulder's K per 9 is just above acceptable, 4.9 per 9 IP. That's doesn't give the impression of much upside.

Update: Here's more information on Mulder's contract. It's very incentive laden. He'll get $13 million over two years, but it could be worth $45 million over three seasons if he pitches often and well.

It seems Sammy Sosa may go the Spinal Tap route and end up playing in Japan. It's not quite going after North American star free agents, but if Sosa were to be wildly successful, might that cause Japanese teams to consider other American players? If so, it might be a way for American teams to dump aging stars without having to go through the posting system. Why not direct trades? Would a Japanese team be willing to part with a young prospect for a year of Luis Gonzalez? When Jason Giambi gets too old for his contract, he might be a big hit in Korea. The Asian teams get the draw of a North American star, and the MLB teams have a new source of talent.

Mark Mulder is going to get a two-year, $18 million dollar contract, despite a torn rotator cuff:

Mulder would not become available to pitch until July at the earliest, club officials believe. Either Wainwright or Looper could be used to hold his spot until then.

And it's not just the Cardinals making the offer. Texas and Cleveland proposed similar contracts. Not bad for a pitcher with a big question mark.

The Seibu Lions signed Jason Johnson. You'd think they could find someone better with the $51 million they obtained from the Red Sox.

And while I know this isn't the plan, why not go after a big name North American star next year? Imagine if the Lions signed Andruw Jones, for example. I'd hope at some point the Japanese major leagues would merge with MLB, at least for a playoff. Bringing the best players in from all over the world would move that along quicker.

Teepee Talk is very happy Keith Foulke passed his physical.

Amy Nelson reports that Mark Loretta is poised to sign with Houston:

Craig Biggio has long been entrenched as the starting second baseman for the Astros. But Garber said Loretta, who has also played first, third and shortstop during his career, will play "all over the infield" for Houston.

"We wanted to wait until the second-base market got better. The market is great for everyone but second basemen," Garber said.

Sounds like he'll be the super-utility player. Garner moves Berkman between the infield and outfield, which should create opportunities for Mark, and you never know which Morgan Ensberg is going to show up.

Loretta played briefly for Houston in 2002, and put up excellent numbers. He's also an interesting player because he peaked late in his career, having his best seasons at age 30-32. He'll be 35 in 2007, and appears to have lost something off his OBA, which was always his strong point.

Wow. A team is actually interested enough in Jeff Weaver to leak that notion to the press.

It looks like the Red Sox are close to signing Joel Pineiro as a closer option. In his career, Pineiro faced just 295 batters as a reliever, but did very well, allowing a .205 batting average, a .301 OBA and a .309 slugging percentage. If he comes anywhere close to that for the Red Sox, he'll do just fine.

Sidney Ponson signed an incentive laden, minor league deal with the Twins. That's the right way to get Sidney on your team. Give him a big incentive to do well for you. If he doesn't work out, nothing lost. If he turns himself around, you've earned wins cheaply. I wonder if this is it for the Twins, or if they'll go after someone else for insurance?

The details of Barry Zito's contract are now available, including his staying in a suite on the road. He'll start with a $10 million salary in 2007:

The 28-year-old Zito, represented by superagent Scott Boras, will make $14.5 million in 2008, $18.5 million each in '09, 2010 and 2011. In 2012, the sixth year of his contract, Zito will receive $19 million and then $20 million the following season. He has a full no-trade clause.

Zito's option will become guaranteed if he pitches 600 innings between 2011 and 2013, 400 innings from 2012-2013 or 200 innings in 2013, with 180 innings pitched in 2011 or 2012. If his option becomes guaranteed, Zito can void the contract and receive a $3.5 million buyout.

So the Giants don't shell out the $18 million a year right away. If they do dump Bonds after/if he breaks Aaron's home run record, that will give them more money to pay the rest of Zito's contract.

Keith Foulke arrived in Cleveland for a physical:

Free agent reliever Keith Foulke arrived Tuesday to take his physical for the Cleveland Indians, the final step before the club can complete a one-year deal with the right-hander.

Foulke and his agent, Dan Horwits, have been in talks for several weeks with the club, which is believed to be offering a mutual option for 2008.

If he passes his physical -- the team may not have complete results for a few days -- Foulke would give the Indians another option at closer.

I assume Foulke isn't going to get a huge amount of money from the Indians. This sounds like a contract that's going to allow Keith to prove he can pitch again.

The Crawfish Boxes are sorry to see Aubrey Huff leave Houston.

Actually, I was kind of hoping it was YOU who wouldn't be bitter. Pretty apparent now that you were brought in for one reason and for one reason only: to light a fire under our flaky incumbent third baseman. Well, we'll see how well that works, but I might not even blame you if you started telling the Baltimore media you felt a little bit used by the Astros.

Given the class with which you carried yourself as an Astro , though, you probably won't be going that route.

Aubrey Huff reached an agreement with the Orioles.

The Orioles tried unsuccessfully to lure free-agent slugger Carlos Lee to Baltimore and also were unable to complete a deal for Atlanta Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche.

Their offseason search for an impact hitter produced little but frustration for the past month and a half, but that changed early yesterday morning. At about 2 a.m. yesterday, the Orioles agreed in principle on a three-year, $20 million deal with free agent Aubrey Huff, several industry sources confirmed.

Huff, a 30-year-old who can play first and third base and both corner outfield spots though is primarily valued for his bat, is expected to take a physical in Baltimore this week, possibly Wednesday. The deal will be finalized and announced if he passes his physical.

The question in my mind, is Huff really an impact player? The answer is clearly no. He peaked at ages 26 and 27, and really hasn't been that good since. He put up two 20 win share seasons at that age, and hasn't come close since. At age 30, I don't expect him to get suddenly better.

But the Orioles are really just spinning this as an impact signing. Hitters with decent stats are getting contract in the in high teens per year, not $20 million over three years. The Orioles were scraping the bottom of the barrel here, and trying to make the best of it. It's a typical Baltimore move of the last few years, picking up a player who was once good and now has limited upside. It does little to improve the team.

The Daily Lancer looks at the Gil Meche contract in terms of the Zito deal.

MetsBlog.com quotes Omar Minaya on the Barry Zito deal. Minaya was not willing to go longer than five years for a pitcher, sound thinking.

Although not yet officially announced, Barry Zito agreed to an $18 million a year deal with the Giants. The total contract of $126 million is the highest paid to a pitcher:

Zito's agreement, reached late Wednesday night, includes an $18 million option for 2014 with a $7 million buyout that could increase the value to $137 million. The option would become guaranteed if Zito pitches 200 innings in 2013, 400 combined over 2012 and 2013 or 600 combined from 2011-13.

The complaint about Zito was his falling K/9 numbers. Through the 2003 season, Zito averaged 7.2 K per 9 and 3.4 BB per 9. Since, the K per 9 fell to 6.6 with the walks rising to 3.7 per 9. His home runs are up, too.

And for top price, the Giants aren't even getting a top ERA. Over the last three years, Zito does not even rank in the top 20, despite toiling in a pitcher's park. On the bright side, the Giants are getting a local favorite, and a veteran to stabilize a young staff. Barry benefited from being only top line pitcher available this year. The Giants have to hope he lives up to his contract better than Mike Hampton did.

MetsBlog.com links to an article indicating the Rangers put a deadline on Zito negotiations:

The Rangers have let Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras, know that they don't plan to wait around all winter waiting for his response. The Rangers want to hear by this weekend whether or not Zito plans to accept their contract offer.

Rangers owner Tom Hicks wrote via e-mail: "We've made a very strong offer. If we don't have agreement with his agent by this weekend, we will pursue other alternatives."

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels also confirmed that deadline, writing, "That's accurate. End of the week."

Some commentors at the MetsBlog are rejoicing in this move, since they believe Zito is bound to reject it. However, this is exactly what the Yankees did with Johnny Damon last season. They made him a very generous offer and told him he had a very limited time to accept it.

If indeed the Rangers have the best offer on the table, setting a deadline let's everyone else know the offer is coming off the table soon. So the Mets and Giants can wait to see if Zito does indeed reject, in which case they can likely get Barry at a lower price. The danger, of course, is that the Rangers offer is really very good, and the Mets and Giants are left out in the cold. This is a very smart move by Texas, especially if they're willing to go on without Zito.

FoxSports.com reports that Shea Hillenbrand signed with the LAnaheim Angels. Not many details except that it's a one-year contract. He'll fit in well with the Angels philosphy of putting the ball in play. He's a low OBA, high BA player who neither walks nor strikes out much.

The Chicago Tribune provides some details of Jeff Suppan's contract:

NL Championship Series MVP Jeff Suppan reached a preliminary agreement Sunday on a four-year, $42 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Suppan must pass a physical before the deal is finalized, the Brewers said in a rare Christmas Eve announcement. His contract includes a team option for 2011 with a $2 million buyout.

Given the money being thrown about this winter, that's downright reasonable. This gives the Brewers a rotation of Capuano, Sheets, Bush, Vargas and Suppan. How well this staff does depends on the health of Ben Sheets and how much offensive improvement the youngsters show. ERAs in the low fours are fine if you're not near the bottom of the league in runs scored.

The Milwaukee Brewers land Jeff Suppan, giving the pitcher a four year contract with a team option for the fifth year. I haven't seen anything on the money, however. Suppan is coming off the best three-year stretch of his career, during which he compiled a 44-26 record with a 3.95 ERA.

There was speculation that some teams were using the threat of signing Jeff as leverage against Barry Zito. That's gone now.

John Harper in the New York Daily News speculates that the Rangers trade for Brandon McCarthy means the Rangers are less interested in Barry Zito. And that's good for the Mets.

The Mets believe their chances of signing free agent Barry Zito improved last night with the news that the Rangers, apparently discouraged about their own pursuit of Zito, traded top prospects to the White Sox for highly regarded righthander Brandon McCarthy.

How much the Mets' chances improved is anyone's guess, considering that the Giants and Mariners, and perhaps another team or two, are in the hunt for Zito and may have an edge if whispers are true that the lefthander ideally would prefer to stay on the West Coast. Still, the Rangers were considered something of a wild card in the Zito sweepstakes if only because they were widely viewed as the team that would make the highest bid. The Mets took the trade for McCarthy as a sign that Texas either was getting indications that Zito wants no part of pitching in such a hitter-friendly ballpark or that the Rangers themselves aren't willing to pay $100 million-plus for a pitcher who is not regarded as an ace.

I don't buy it. The Rangers needed at least two starting pitchers, and McCarthy is one of those. Given Brandon's limited time in the majors, he's an inexpensive ballplayer. The trade should not effect the Rangers pursuit of Zito. Harper and the Mets realize that might be true:

The Mets were aware that Rangers GM Jon Daniels, speaking about the trade for McCarthy last night, said publicly that he wasn't encouraged about his chances of landing Zito. "At this point I'm not optimistic about that," Daniels said. "I don't really want to get into specifics of our conversations, other than to say I'm not terribly encouraged by our chances."

The Mets were wary about taking such a statement at face value, especially considering Rangers owner Tom Hicks' history as both a big spender and a man who historically hasn't said no to Zito's agent Scott Boras. At the very least, however, the Mets believe Daniels was trying to gain leverage with Boras, both with the trade and his public comments, apparently to keep the price from skyrocketing. Daniels also told reporters they shouldn't believe the rumors that the Rangers had made an offer in the $100 million range. "One way or another this looks like a good thing," the Mets' source said.

At some point, teams do need to make offers, however. The question is will they hold firm to the price, or engage in a bidding war. It strikes me that a bidding war favors the Rangers. If it's really about where Zito wants to play, a fair offer should land him.

The Giants signed Ryan Klesko so that Bruce Bochy won't lose his golfing partner:

In the meantime, the Giants roster continues to take shape. Bochy stumped hard for Klesko, a personal friend and golfing buddy who played in just six games last season because of left shoulder surgery.

"He's fully endorsed by our manager, as a lot of our acquisitions have been, and that's why he's here," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said.

Klesko will see time in left field and at first base, where he could work himself into a platoon with Rich Aurilia and make Sweeney expendable. (Klesko's deal would see him make up to $2 million more in performance bonuses based on plate appearances.) Bochy said he still considers Aurilia the primary first baseman, but "it's always going to stay competitive."

Maybe if the Giants can't work out the language in Bonds' contract, Ryan can play left full time! Right now, the Giants staters look like this (2007 seasonal ages):

• C -- Benjie Molina, 31
• 1B -- Rich Aurilia, 35
• 1B -- Ryan Klesko, 36
• 2B -- Ray Durham, 35
• 3B -- Pedro Feliz, 31
• SS -- Omar Vizquel, 40
• LF -- Barry Bonds, 42
• CF -- Dave Roberts, 35
• RF -- Randy Winn, 33

Counting the 1B platoon as 35.5, that makes the average age of the starting lineup 35.3 years. The one good young player they own is Frandsen, and he's behind two of the better players on the team. I just wonder what the long term plans for this team are? Will they keep signing vets to maintain the semblance of a competitive team? Or at some point, do they tear the whole thing down and start over? The first option is what Gene Autry did with the Angels for years. It got them nowhere. The second is what Cleveland did earlier this decade, and what Florida did last year. I'd rather see the Giants do the latter. It's cheaper and likely yields better results.

MetsBlog.com rounds up the latest news on the Barry Zito negotiations. It seems the Giants are involved and are likely to match any offer the Mets make.

Eric Gagne passed his physical and is now a member of the Texas Rangers.

The Boston Globe offers more details on the problems with J.D. Drew's shoulder:

Drew, who at the time had a fractured left wrist after being hit by a pitch, had arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist at the same time his shoulder was repaired. A tear in his labrum was repaired and he reportedly also had holes drilled in his shoulder blade to promote cartilage growth.

Sean Casey had similar surgery, and it took him a while to regain his strength:

But last July, during a stretch in which he went 43 games and 139 at-bats without a home run -- from June 2 to July 27, a period in which the Dodgers went 16-32 and nearly fell out of the NL West race -- Drew admitted that a weakened shoulder was a contributing factor.

"It could have," Drew told the Orange County Register. "[Detroit first baseman] Sean Casey told me he had a similar thing done and it took him a good 12 months to get his strength all the way back. I know I've lost some [strength]. Even the trainers have told me they can tell there's some residual weakness in the back of my right shoulder."

So, if Drew's recovery period is similar to Casey's he should be fine. It seems the Red Sox are just making sure.

Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com believes Barry Zito should take the Mets situation over the Rangers money:

Yes, Zito is 11-1 with a 3.75 ERA lifetime at Texas' hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field. But as a flyball pitcher, he probably couldn't sustain that success over 18 home starts per season.

With the Mets, Zito would work at pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium, reunite with former A's pitching coach Rick Peterson and -- perhaps most important -- pitch in the less-potent National League.

Zito, 28, is 102-63 lifetime with a 3.83 ERA. His next six years probably will not be as good as his first six, given his declining strikeout rate and rising opponents' OPS.

Yet, if he's thinking at all about the Hall of Fame -- not an unreasonable notion, given his consistency and durability -- his decision will be easy.

Go with the better team. Go with the better situation. Go with the Mets.

Actually, both teams are in a very similar situation. Each has three healthy pitchers on its depth chart. The difference is the Rangers only have three pitchers period, while the Mets will eventually get their two back. So Zito is more important to Texas, hence more money.

And while the Mets may be the better team now, things can change quickly. The Mets would be a good situation for Zito, but in Texas he'd be the ace. And Texas might even make the difference in offers greater than $30 million. I don't believe it's as clear cut a choice as Rosenthal.

As expected, Fox is reporting Marcus Giles will sign with the Padres.

Marcus, 28, likely will agree to a one-year deal and possibly a club option. His salary will be significantly less than the $5.5 million that he might have earned in salary arbitration with the Braves, who declined to offer him a contract.

The short-term deal will give Marcus a chance to re-establish his value as he tries to rebound from his worst offensive season as a regular. It also gives him the opportunity to return home to San Diego and become major-league teammates with Brian, 35, for the first time.

It's a smart move for Marcus. My guess is he's still a good player who had an off year. If he plays up to his potential, he'll be worth a lot more money on the free agent market next season.

Dodger Thoughts quotes the Boston Herald and Will Carroll on why the J.D. Drew deal remain pending. There seems to be a bit of a shoulder problem there. 6-4-2 Notes that this makes DePodesta's contract to J.D. look a lot better.

Get Up, Baby, examines the arguments around the value of Jeff Suppan.

Miguel Batista signed a three-year deal with the Mariners:

Batista signed a three-year contract Thursday that was believed to be worth between $8 million and $9 million annually. The signing adds another proven starter to the rotation, but one with a losing career record who is not the front-line No. 1 pitcher that management and fans have been seeking.

It's not a bad deal as BaseballReference.com list him with an ERA+ over 100 for the last six seasons. Given the money some other pitchers received, that's a very reasonable deal.

Via MetsBlog.com, the Padres made an offer to Marcus Giles:

General Manager Kevin Towers said he made a contractual offer yesterday to second baseman Marcus Giles, the former Braves regular who became a free agent on Tuesday night. The proposal is believed to be worth $3 million to $4 million.

Sounds like a bargain to me if the Padres can get him at that price.

The Baseball Crank uses his Established Win Shares Level to examine the cost of free agent signings this winter. Craig Counsell and Sean Casey look like bargains.

The Atlanta Braves did not tender Marcus Giles a contract. He becomes a free agent:

The Braves pushed hard to trade Giles during the winter meetings, but couldn't work out a deal for someone to take their leadoff hitter from this past season. So they declined to tender him a contract for 2007.

General manager John Schuerholz said he couldn't risk going to arbitration with Giles, who made $3.85 million in 2006 and likely would have commanded over $5 million for next season.

My god, who would want to spend $5 million on a player with a .361 career OBA! The horror! It's a good thing nobody gave an 8-year, $136 million dollar contract to a player with a .325 OBA this winter.

Wait a minute. The Cubs did that!

But I forget. Soriano had a good year in 2006 and Giles didn't. It can't be that either of them were flukes. That why Alfonso is worth so much more.

I'm sure Marcus will find his OBA is appreciated in San Diego.

The Seattle Mariners lost Gil Meche but gained Miguel Batista. I'm not sure who I'd rather have on my team. Meche strikes out batters. Miguel no longer does, unless he's pitching in relief. But Batista is very good at preventing home runs over his career. Given that he's pitched a good number of his innings in places like Arizona and Toronto, that's impressive. In fact, if you put him on the road, he's second in the majors since 1996 to Kevin Brown. It's an okay signing, and they're not overpaying, especially given this market.

The Rangers and Eric Gagne reached an agreement today:

One day after reportedly making an offer to free-agent left-hander Barry Zito, the Rangers have reached preliminary agreement with another Scott Boras client, free-agent closer Eric Gagne, on a one-year, $6 million contract, FOXSports.com has learned.

The deal, which likely is pending a physical, is expected to include approximately $5 million in appearance incentives, bringing the possible total to $11 million, major-league sources said.

So Eric gets a season to prove he can pitch again. If he succeeds, the Rangers pay him a hefty salary and Eric can test the free agent market again. If he doesn't, the Rangers look for another solution and they're not out that much money. Seems like just the right kind of contract for the situation.

Jon Weisman will miss the closer.

Jay Payton joins the Orioles for a reasonable amount of money:

"Jay fits our need for a right-handed hitting outfielder," said Mike Flanagan, the team executive vice president for baseball operations. "The fact that he hits for average against both lefties and righties and his versatility to play all over the outfield is a real plus."

The 34-year-old Payton gets $4.5 million next year and $5 million in 2008.

Unfortunately, Payton does not fit the need for an outfielder who can actually contribute much offensively. Outside of his time in Colorado, Payton doesn't get on base much nor does he hit for power. His .284 batting average represents the majority of his offensive ability. To the Orioles credit, they're not overpaying for what they're getting.

The Dodgers will not file tampering charges in the case of J.D. Drew.

The Red Sox and Boras denied any impropriety, which would have been difficult to prove. The Dodgers hadn't seriously considered asking Major League Baseball to investigate until a column last week in the New York Times suggested tampering had occurred, leading General Manager Ned Colletti to say Friday, 'We've looked into' filing charges.

Drew leaving his contract in a week free agent season with teams awash in money makes perfect sense.

Via MetsBlog.com, The Ragsly Reader discusses the Mets fan crush on Barry Zito:

Mets fans want you, Barry. They want you to bring your desirable self (your pitching skills, your actress/model-dating skills and high Q rating) to this greatest city. They want you on the Shea Stadium mound. They want you illuminated under their city's bright lights like you deserve. They promise to treat you right. They know you're not like other ballplayers, Barry. And they daydream about the stability and youth you can bring to their starting rotation.

But the fans and the team don't want to overpay for you, Barry. They want you to realize that what they offer is more than just money. It all sounds so right. It could all be so right. If you only say yes.

He'll want more than Pettitte, however.

Barry Bonds' contract with the Giants is not quite a done deal:

Here's a new one: teams asking for an indictment clause in player contracts.

That's apparently one issue that's holding up Barry Bonds' $16 million re-signing with the Giants from becoming official. There are others, too. The Giants want fewer of Bonds' personal employees in the clubhouse and a guarantee that he won't refuse to pinch hit, like he did last year.

For his part, Bonds wants reporters to be banned from asking him questions at his locker and control over some potentially historic memorabilia as he begins the 2007 season 22 home runs shy of breaking Hank Aaron's all-time best 755.

Sounds like I've heard these contract negotiations before:

Chico: Wait. What does this say here?

Groucho: That? That's the usual clause.
That's in every contract.
That just says, "If any of the parties...
"participating in this contract...
"are shown not to be in their right mind...
"the entire agreement
is automatically nullified."

Chico: I don't know.

Groucho: It's all right. That's in every contract.
That's what they call a sanity clause.

Chico: You can't fool me.
There ain't no Sanity Claus.

Ken Rosenthal tries to explain why the Gil Meche deal with the Royals might make sense.

Two years ago, critics bemoaned the Mets' signing of right-hander Kris Benson for $22.5 million over three years, complaining that it raised the bar for other mediocre pitchers.

Guess what?

Benson's deal, which includes a $7.5 million option, now resembles a bargain.

Ditto for the Blue Jays' signing of free-agent closer B.J. Ryan to a five-year, $47 million contract last off-season.

Ditto for the Astros' signing of right-hander Roy Oswalt to a five-year, $73 million deal last summer.

Ditto for virtually every contract awarded prior to this winter's salary eruption.

At the moment, the Meche contract looks horrible. But let's see how we view it two, three years from now.

Of course, all those contract went to either very good players or, in the case of Benson, a decent player. Meche is none of those. If he turns out to pitch as poorly as he's pitched in the past, the contract will be a colossal waste of money, no matter what the market does.

It looks like the Cubs are about to sign Jason Marquis to a three-year deal, somewhere between $6 million to $9 million a year. Imagine what Jason would earn if his ERA was under six! Jason's made four starts at Wrigley in his career, and I wouldn't call him effective there.

Andy Pettitte is heading back to New York:

The left-hander and the Yankees have reached an agreement on a one-year deal that will pay him $16 million in 2007 with a player option for 2008, sources close to the negotiations told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Friday.

The player option for 2008 is also at $16 million. Pettitte must pass a physical for the agreement to be finalized.

It's a good deal for the Yankees. It's not a long term commitment, and it gives the Bronx Bombers four solid starters. Pettitte's strikeouts are still high, although his walks and homers were up in 2006. I like it because if Pettitte pitches well, he can decide to try for a bigger payday next season. If he pitches poorly, the Yankees are only stuck with him for two seasons. As my friend Jim Storer commented, it's also a great PR move, as lots of Yankees fans love Andy.

Barry Bonds reached an agreement with the San Francisco Giants overnight. He'll earn between $16 and $20 million dollars, depending on what incentives are reached.

I'm a bit surprised he wound up getting that much money. It didn't seem like there was that strong a market for Barry. But the Giants need someone to play leftfield, and they're not much of a team without the slugger.

Ray Ratto puts the deal on Magown's shoulders:

Sabean's signing decisions, to re-up with Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz and scoop up Dave Roberts and Rich Aurilia and Bengie Molina, had been savaged as short-sighted by the kind and a filthy lie by the suspicious. Giants fans had been told by Magowan that a new day was a'dawnin', and that you'd all come to like it.

Only Sabean knew something nobody thought conceivable -- that Bonds still had his hold over Magowan, so much so that the owner couldn't walk away. Sabean knew that the bank had already been spoken for, because he got to be in the meetings where Topic A was discussed ad nauseam, and that Magowan wasn't ready for a new direction at all. There was still juice to be squeezed from this pineapple, and it would end up in Magowan's glass come hell or high water.

It will never be known whether Bonds' agent, Jeff Borris, had another offer for Bonds, one with which he could tantalize the Giants. Borris' work on that secret other bidder had been wholly unconvincing, especially when Bonds decided to go Project Runway through the winter meetings.

But we forgot that Borris wasn't trying to sell us. He was trying to sell Magowan, and Magowan had always been Bonds' ATM.

So Magowan talked tough. He let Sabean make runs at Carlos Lee and Juan Pierre, and enjoyed the Manny Ramirez and Barry Zito rumors. But as we have always known, Magowan was and is the point man on Bonds, and it is Magowan who is responsible for this new bit of mega-largesse.

One more year, at $16 million, plus a potential $4 million in extra candy. Fiscal discipline that, laughing boy.

If you're looking for a new start for the Giants, all I can say is, wait 'til next year.

Waffling at the Baseball Toaster over Luis Gonzalez.

The Royals are planning on paying Gil Meche $9 million a year for five years. I wish I were a mediocre pitcher. If Meche can get his walks down, he'd be pretty good. It seems to me, however, that the Royals could find a better way to spend the $9 million.

If they were in playoff contention, where the only thing they needed to put them over the top was a fourth starter, I can see it. But the Royals are pretty far away from that. They need to make more deals like the one for Bannister. He's an okay pitcher that's cheap, who will fill a need until they're ready to win. Locking up Meche for five years just means five years of okay to bad pitching. Then again, given the state of the Royals staff, Gil is an improvement. He really should be seen as a stop gap, however.

Update: It's worse than I thought:

Kansas City Royals agreed to terms with right-hander Gil Meche on a five-year deal worth $55 million on Thursday as baseball's winter meetings neared a conclusion.

Here's what Moore said:

"We were proud to be a part of the process and delighted that Gil Meche made the decision to join the Royals," general manager Dayton Moore said. "He is an impact pitching talent who fits in with our plan for long term success. At 28, he is entering the prime of his career."

At least they're spending some of that revenue sharing money on salary. It would be better, of course, if they spent it to improve the team.

The St. Louis Cardinals may be interested in Barry Bonds, leading Will Leitch to question his belief system:

But talk about the ultimate test: It appears our beloved (and defending champion: Woo!) Cardinals are considering making a run at Barry Bonds. To be honest, this was something we had in the back of our mind before word got out that Tony LaRussa wanted to "speak" with the slugger; the Cardinals could use another power bat in the outfield, and LaRussa historically has had few moral qualms with steroid guys on his team. (Though we wonder: As a vegetarian, does he have a problem with Bonds using cattle steroids?) The notion of a Pujols-Bonds one-two punch is, theoretically, terrifying, in pretty much every conventional use of the term.

It's all preliminary, of course, and it still seems unlikely Bonds will be anywhere but San Francisco next year. But the questions remains: Could we root for a rather blatant asshole like Bonds, particularly when almost no one -- including us -- wants him to break Hank Aaron's record next year? After years of going after the guy, could we suddenly switch?

We prefer to think of it as compartmentalizing our brain. In the real world, where human beings peacefully co-exist in an atmosphere of common humility and concern for the collective welfare of all humanity, we would hate Bonds and would find it difficult not to cringe when we see his picture on screen. Fortunately, we have a feeling that we would feel that way about a majority of athletes if we met them in real life; they are not like you and I, after all. Could we make that transformation into a Bonds fan if he were wearing the Cardinals red? With the bases loaded, and Bonds up in the ninth inning, with the Cards down two to the Cubs, in August ... yeah, we could probably make that transformation. We wouldn't feel good about ourselves ... but we could. We accept your scorn. We deserve it.

St. Louis interest in Bonds could be the one thing that drives his price up, as other NL teams decide any price is worth not putting Barry and Albert in the same lineup. (I can just see Edmonds and Rolen dancing around as Barry signs, chanting, "We're going to drive in 200 runs each!")

As for the bovine steroids, a high ranking member of PETA uses insulin derived from research on dogs. I guess they don't want to her animals unless it can save their lives!

Via MetsBlog.com, Luis Gonzalez will continue his career, this time with the Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers have come to an agreement with outfielder Luis Gonzalez on a one-year deal worth $7 million for the 2007 season, MLB.com has learned.

My first thought when I see the Dodgers sign a veteran is, where are all the players that are supposed to be coming out of this great farm system. But it's a one year deal, and who knows how much Luis will actually play. He's 39, but still a productive player. In this market, $7 million for someone who can actually hit is a good deal.

Ted Lilly inked a $40 million, four-year contract with the Chicago Cubs today.

Lilly, 30, has a career 59-58 record in eight major-league seasons with Montreal, the Yankees, Oakland and Toronto. He went 15-13 with a 4.31 ERA for the Blue Jays last season.

I like Ted. He strikes out batters. It seems, however, that he always makes a mistake that winds up in the seats. His 1.4 home runs per 9 innings doesn't seem like a good fit when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. The price for middle of the rotation pitchers keeps going up.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Mike Piazza is now a member of the Athletics. He'll get $8.5 million to DH this year. He's not quite Frank Thomas, but he's a lot cheaper and can still smack the ball. That puts one more team out of the Barry Bonds derby.

There's a report that Toronto is out of the running for Ted Lilly and it's down to the Cubs and Yankees. I like the fact that the Yankees are returning to their roots and are trying to sign another lefty.

6-4-2 Links to reports on the Dodgers signing Jason Schmidt to a four-year contract. Schmidt went for more dollars and fewer years. He stays on the west coast and moves to another good pitcher's park. Schmidt's stats are going in the wrong direction, however. His strikeouts are going down, and his walks and homers are going up. However, he still strikes out more than enough to be effective.

Meanwhile, Alan Embree takes over as the Athletics LOOGY, moving Kennedy into the rotation in place of Zito. That doesn't sound like a move that will improve the starters. Embree's been great when he pitches for San Diego, posting a 2.44 ERA. But with all his other teams that number is 4.90. Still, Oakland is a big park, so he's likely to be comfortable there.

Correction: Fixed spelling of LOOGY.

The Cleveland Indians were happier with Joe Borowski's shoulder than the Philiadelphia Phillies and signed the right-hander to a $4 million dollar, one-year deal with an option for 2008. If Joe is healthy, he's a good pitcher. The Indians filled a hole on their team without giving away the farm or the fortune. When Joe is right, he strikes out people without giving up a lot of walks or home runs. That's pretty much what you want from your closer.

Ken Rosenthal explains why Barry Bonds appearing at the winter meetings is so unusual.

The only time players of Bonds' stature attend the meetings is when they are introduced after signing a major free-agent contract. Even then, such appearances are rare.

My guess is that Bonds can have a job if he lowers his price to around $10 million for a year. I don't believe teams are willing to pay Barry top dollar for two surgically repaired knees and one repaired elbow, even if he still is a very productive player. Right now, Barry needs a team (to break the home run record) more than a team needs Barry. The GMs will wait to see how low a salary he's willing to take.

Greg Maddux and the Padres finished their deal. Maddux earns $10 million in 2007 and between $6 and $10 million in 2008. Not bad for a 40-year-old+ pitcher. Since he lives in the area, I wonder if Maddux might become the pitching coach when he retires?

It appears the Red Sox are just short a physical of landing both J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo:

The Red Sox reached a preliminary agreement Tuesday with Drew on a contract that could bring him $70 million over the next five years. Although Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein stressed that Drew has not yet taken a physical, he told reporters that Drew is earmarked for the No. 5 spot in the batting order behind David Ortiz and Ramirez.

...

Later Tuesday, the Red Sox reached a $36 million, four-year agreement with shortstop Julio Lugo that was also pending a physical. Details of the agreement were provided to The Associated Press by a person involved in the negotiations who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the deal was not final.

Ortiz, Ramirez and Drew are formidable heart of the order, provided the Red Sox keep Manny. It also seems Boston is willing to take on more salary than they were last season, when they traded down from Damon to Crisp in center.

Lugo did well in the PMR model I've posted so far. Then again, the Red Sox didn't think Edgar Renteria's defense would be a problem in Boston, either. Lugo hits a lot better than Gonzalez, so this should be a huge improvement for the Red Sox at shortstop. Two very good signings by Boston, at least in the short term. Both players are 31, so we'll see how they hold up over a four year contract.

FoxSports is reporting that the San Diego Padres are about to sign Greg Maddux.

The Padres are closing in on a major off-season coup, nearing an agreement with free-agent right-hander Greg Maddux, FOXSports.com has learned.

The deal, which would be a significant blow to the Dodgers, the Padres' NL West rival, will be for either one or two years, or possibly one year with a club option.

I'm not sure it's that big a coup. Maddux isn't the pitcher he used to be. But the Padres are a good fit, since they have such a good bullpen. Maddux can give the Padres six decent innings in a pitcher's park, and the pen can take over. We'll see if this deal takes place.

Brian Sabean makes it clear the Giants want to sign Barry Bonds:

"I don't know where the story line came from that we didn't want him back," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said Monday at the winter meetings. "We've had a long-standing conversation and offer out there that we've adjusted a number of times. Because we were pursuing other players didn't mean we weren't interested in Barry. We're trying to put the best team on the field and sign other people also. I guess it was misconstrued the other way."

I guess so. Maybe Brian shouldn't have taken so long to clear up the matter. Or maybe after all the other good hitters were signed, the Giants decided they needed Barry.

Jeff at Lookout Landing discusses the good and the bad about Jose Guillen becoming a Mariner. There's really not much good about this deal. Remember, Guillen had two good season in his career. I agree with this:

Anyway, given that right field can only accomodate one player at a time, Guillen being there means that Chris Snelling isn't. Guillen's a good defensive outfielder (with an awesome arm if it's healthy) and he brings a right-handed bat to the table, but Snelling's the most patient hitter on the team, and reducing his role costs the team runs. You can't really slide him to DH either, not as long as Broussard's hanging around, so something has to give, and I don't want it to be Snelling's playing time.

It's not a long contract or a very expensive one, however, so there's a lot of upside here for the Mariners. Guillen will be playing for a huge contract next season.

In their album, Great White North, the McKenzie brothers apply the formula for converting from centigrade to Farenheit to all sorts of metric conversions (double it and add 30). For example, there are 42 metric beers in a six pack. According to Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post, general managers are doing something similar in pricing free agents:

The theorem behind the Times Two principle is simple: Take whatever value you would have assigned to a chosen free agent before this winter's madness took hold, then double it. The resulting figure, with few exceptions, will equal, or at least approximate, the total value of said free agent's actual contract.

For example, several months ago, most observers seemed to believe left fielder Alfonso Soriano -- the erstwhile Washington National whose unquestioned talent as a power hitter and base stealer is mitigated by a propensity to strike out and a pedestrian career on-base percentage of .325 -- to be worth perhaps $70 million on the free agent market. Double that figure, and poof! Soriano, who will be 31 next month, received just shy of $140 million ($136 million, to be exact) from the Chicago Cubs.

Carlos Lee, another outfielder whose flaws are no less obvious than Soriano's, might have been viewed as a $50 million player. Poof! He got $100 million from the Houston Astros. And so on and so forth.

Some teams, however, are not getting involved:

'Some of these signings don't appear too logical in some cases,' Pittsburgh Pirates GM Dave Littlefield said. 'But it takes a lot of discipline to sit back and not jump in.'

That is the beauty of the Times Two theory, as it relates to small-budget teams in a big-budget marketplace: Zero times two is still zero.

Dan Rosenheck looks for the best fit for Barry Bonds and decides the Twins would benefit the most from the slugger's presence:

Any team looking to sign him should be on the verge of a postseason appearance; that eliminates his most recent employer. Even though Bonds is loved in San Francisco and despised most everywhere else, the Giants are unlikely to contend next year.

Bonds can also offer potential suitors an added source of revenue: his chase for the home run record. He is on track to surpass Hank Aaron's career total of 755 late next season. When Bonds broke Mark McGwire's single-season home run record of 70 in 2001, attendance increased by about 5,000 a game during the last 40 games of the year, and once he reached 69, every game sold out.

A team that comes close to selling out most of its games would be unable to accommodate the extra fans who would pay to see Bonds break the record. But one with a big stadium and mediocre attendance could increase its revenue by more than $5 million.

Add it all up, and one team trumps the rest: the Minnesota Twins.

They had the worst-performing left fielders in the majors last year. They play in a tightly contested division, vying against the 2006 pennant-winning Detroit Tigers and the 2005 world champion White Sox, as well as the up-and-coming Cleveland Indians. And, crucially, they averaged 24,000 empty seats a game in August and September, meaning they could benefit more from an increase in attendance for Bonds's record chase than any other serious contender.

Full disclousure, Dan consulted me (and others) about Bonds' fielding. The biggest drawback I see in playing for the Twins is the artificial surface. Those tend to be bad on his knees. Otherwise, it's a good idea.

It seems the Giants are shaping up to be much the same team as last year:

Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz are coming back to the Giants next season, and the club hopes to add Barry Bonds to that list soon.

Durham agreed to a two-year, $14.5 million contract to return at second base; Feliz will be back at third base after agreeing to a one-year contract believed to be worth $5 million to $6 million, pending a physical, MediaNews has learned.

The Giants lineup is taking shape and will become even clearer today, when the club is expected to announce the signings of infielder Rich Aurilia (two years, about $7 million) and center fielder/leadoff man Dave Roberts (three years, about $17 million).

What's interesting to me is that in an off-season in which players salaries are going way up, that Durham and Feliz took modest raises to return. Either they just love playing in San Francisco, or the market for them is not that strong. If it's the latter, the other teams don't see them as very good players. That's not good news for the Giants. It's sad that San Francisco had a chance here to really remake the team, and they're just recycling veterans.

On the Mike Matheny front:

Catcher Mike Matheny is scheduled to undergo another battery of cognitive tests at the University of Pittsburgh on Wednesday to gauge his recovery from post-concussion syndrome. Sabean acknowledged he was "not as optimistic" about Matheny contributing next season.

Let's hope he does well.

Midnight was the deadline to offer free agents arbitration, and in the AL at least not too many players got the offer. With the rule changes due the the CBA, this isn't as big a deal as in the past. A larger number of free agents won't be compensated, so their is no reason to offer those players arbitration anymore. And since all 30 clubs can negotiate without restrictions, there's no need to offer arbitration so you can keep talking.

So Barry Bonds isn't offered arbitration, since the Giants think he would accept and they'd be stuck with a bigger salary than they'd like to pay. Zito is offered arbitration since Oakland feels there is a low probability their Barry would accept, and Oakland wants the draft pick. Players have until Dec. 7 to accept the offer.

I would guess that most teams only offer arbitration if they think the player has a low risk of accepting. With the free agent market as inflated as it is, there's a good chance anyone going through the process will get a substantial sum of money.

Ray Durham stays with the Giants:

The San Francisco Giants re-signed Ray Durham to a two-year contract Friday that will pay the second baseman between $14 million and $15 million.

The 35-year-old Durham, a switch-hitter and two-time All-Star, is coming off his best season in years. He batted .293 with career highs of 26 home runs and 93 RBI for the Giants with a .538 slugging percentage in 498 at-bats. He signed a three-year deal with the club before the 2003 season but has dealt with several leg injuries since his arrival.

"We are fortunate to re-sign Ray Durham and keep him in a Giants uniform," general manager Brian Sabean said in a statement. "His switch-hitting abilities and increased power numbers serve as a needed commodity for our evolving team. He has impressed us with his ability to transform his game from a top-of-the-order run scorer to a middle-of-the-lineup run producer."

So much for going young with Kevin Frandsen. I like Durham. He gets on base, has a little pop, and he's versitile. But does anyone really expect him to repeat his power numbers? Of course, if the Giants don't re-sign Bonds, they could play Frandsen at second and Durham in left.

Correction: When I first read the article, I thought they were paying Durham $14 million a year. I removed the line that referred to that.

MetsBlog.com relays a report that Tom Glavine is staying in New York. Glavine needs 10 wins to reach 300. About 10 years ago the common wisdom was there would be no more 300 game winners. I thought Clemens and Maddux had a good shot at it, but Glavine's held up very well over the years and he'll likely reach the plateau late in 2007.

Now this is what I call a rumor!

Baseball Think Factory's news blog points to a table showing compensation for free agents. The Angels are just giving away draft choices!

With Barry Zito showing interest in the Texas Rangers because of Ron Washington, I wonder if the Rangers will review their past:

Millwood was 16-12 after being the team's key free-agent addition last winter. Boras got the right-hander a $60 million, five-year deal.

Boras, the agent for Matsuzaka, also negotiated the $252 million, 10-year deal Alex Rodriguez got from the Rangers in December 2000, and Texas' $65 million, five-year contract for Chan Ho Park the next year.

Actually, the Millwood deal was pretty good, and they were getting the best player in baseball in A-Rod. The Park, deal, however, is one they'd like to forget.

A physical killed the deal between the Phillies and Joe Borowski.

According to the sources, the Phillies were prepared to sign Borowski when a team doctor examined the results of the physical and advised against giving the pitcher a multiyear contract.

Borowski's agents, Ron Shapiro and Michael Maas, continue to field one-year offers from several clubs. It's believed they haven't ruled out resuming negotiations with Philadelphia.

I'm feeling a bit under the weather this morning, so blogging is likely to be light until this afternoon.

It looks like the Red Sox and J.D. Drew are going to work out a deal for five years, $70 million. Not bad given Drew's talent and the price of free agent outfielders this winter. He's taking a hit money wise for his injury history, but he's still getting a long term contract. Meanwhile, it appears real deals are being discussed for Manny Ramirez:

The Sox also remained deep in Manny Ramírez trade talks with the Padres, with San Diego sweetening its original offer, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks. The Padres are offering major league players for Ramírez, a package that presumably would have to include one of two pitchers: prime setup man Scott Linebrink or ace Jake Peavy. The Sox also have coveted Adrian Gonzalez, a lefthanded-hitting first baseman who put up outstanding numbers in his first full season in 2006: .304, 24 home runs, 38 doubles, and 82 RBIs.

The Dodgers also seem to be involved with names like Kemp, Loney, Broxton and LaRoche. And the article even mentions that Johnny Damon's contract with the Yankees doesn't seem so rich at the moment.

The readers of MetsBlog.com think New York did the right thing by letting Chad Bradford become an Oriole.

Viva el Birdos reports on the Cardinals signings, including Adam Kennedy. With former Angels Eckstein, Kennedy and Edmonds in the lineup (and Angles brother Yadier Molina behind the plate), can it be that long before Chone Figgins and Garret Anderson are in camp?

Greg Zaun is back with the Blue Jays:

Gregg Zaun remained with the Toronto Blue Jays, agreeing Tuesday to a $7.25 million, two-year contract after the team's apparent agreement with Rod Barajas fell through.

...

Ricciardi said late Monday that the deal with Barajas was not going ahead. Ricciardi declined to comment about why the contract with Barajas wasn't completed.

Zaun is old, but he's posted very good OBAs for a catcher in his three years with Toronto. Considering what players with lower career OBAs are getting, this is a pretty good deal. I wonder what happened to Barajas? He didn't fail the physical because he never showed up to take it.

The difference between getting seven and eight figures a year for pitchers appears to be whether you were injured in 2006.

Free agent pitcher Adam Eaton has reached preliminary agreement on a three-year contract with the Philadelphia Phillies worth more than $24 million, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The contract includes a mutual option for a fourth year that could bring the overall package to more than $33 million, the source said. The agreement is contingent on Eaton passing a physical exam, and is expected to be announced by the club later this week.

In his seven seasons as a starter, Eaton only qualified for the ERA title twice. His weakness is the long ball, something that may be exacerbated by the Phillies home park. This seems like a lot of money for an iffy pitcher. I like the Dodgers deal for Wolf a lot better, since they're not committed long term if he doesn't work out.

Sabernomics presents four hypotheses for the rise in yearly salaries to this free agent class. Truthfully, I'm not happy with any of them. Inflation usually happens when there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. The teams are making more money, and this free agent class is thin. Over the past few seasons, there were lots of good free agents available. You could tell Vlad Guerrero that Miguel Tejada was an alternative. There just aren't many alternatives this season at the high end.

Sabernomics presents four hypotheses for the rise in yearly salaries to this free agent class. Truthfully, I'm not happy with any of them. Inflation usually happens when there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. The teams are making more money, and this free agent class is thin. Over the past few seasons, there were lots of good free agents available. You could tell Vlad Guerrero that Miguel Tejada was an alternative. There just aren't many alternatives this season at the high end.

I guess it takes Tommy John surgery to get a one year deal this off season:

Free agent lefthander Randy Wolf has agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, SI.com has learned.

I'm sure Wolf wants to prove himself, and if he does, he'll have a huge payday in 2008.

U.S.S. Mariner compares Danys Baez and Julio Mateo to demonstrate that free agent contracts are out of whack. However, Dave is comparing apples and oranges. Mateo is making only $1 million because he's controlled by the club. He's not a free agent. During the six seasons a team controls a player, salaries are almost always determined by two factors:

1. How many years service the player accumulated.
2. How good is the player compared to players with that many years service.

If Mateo went into arbitration and compared himself to Baez, he'd lose his case. It's not an apt comparison because Danys' contract is determined by the market. If Mateo were to become a free agent tomorrow, you can bet he'd get a lot more than $1 million.

The Orioles are close to bringing Danys Baez into the clubhouse:

The Orioles have struck out to this point in adding a slugger to the middle of their lineup, but they are having no such problems in overhauling their bullpen. According to club sources, the Orioles have agreed in principle to a three-year deal with Atlanta Braves free-agent reliever Danys Baez, who will join recent acquisition Jamie Walker as one of Chris Ray 's primary setup men.

Baez's deal hinges on the right-hander's passing a physical, which could happen as early as today. Though exact terms of the deal aren't known, it is believed the Orioles will pay between $5 million and $6 million per season for the 29-year-old pitcher, who has 111 saves in six big league seasons.

Baez has pitched well over his six-year career, usually posting an ERA below the league average. Last season, his walks dropped, but so did his strikeouts and his ERA went up.

The Orioles blew 21 saves last season, only converting 35 of 56 opportunities for saves. Since Ray blew just five chances, most of those blow saves came from middle relievers giving up the lead before the ninth. The Orioles have to hope Baez can be better in that area.

Sports Illustrated reports the Red Sox are are on the verge of signing J.D. Drew.

Drew became an instant hit on the free-agent market after stirring controversy in Los Angeles by opting out of the $33 million and three years remaining on his Dodgers deal, as his unusual contract allowed. The Rangers, Indians, Orioles, Giants and Padres were among teams who expressed an interest in signing Drew, but several major league executives who were bidding on Drew said Saturday he is ticketed to Boston. A deal could be announced within a week.

It wasn't immediately known how much Boston will pay Drew, but it is presumed by the executives who lost out for Drew to be well in excess of the money he left in Los Angeles. Drew is beloved by statistical aficionados who cite his consistently high on-base and slugging percentages (he has a career .393 on-base percentage and .512 slugging percentage). However, he has come under fire for being injury prone; his 146 games in 2006 was a career high and he's averaged 118 games played over his eight full seasons.

I wonder how intangible aficionados feel about J.D? They probably can't put their finger on it.

The Astros, in addition to signing Carlos Lee, also inked Woody Williams to a two-year deal. Woody's ERA last year was greatly a function of not allowing a lot of hits at PETCO. His strength is control, walking just 35 batters in 145 innings. He's a perfectly good back of the rotation guy, but his seasonal age will be 40 in 2007, so you never know when someone that old is just going to fall apart.

6-4-2 Rounds up some signings that don't appear outrageous, including Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia and Rod Barajas.

The Astros made Carlos Lee the latest outfielder to earn a big payday:

Lee signed a six-year, $100 million deal with the Astros, the source told The Associated Press. Lee, a two-time All-Star left fielder who played with the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers last season, is coming off his fifth straight season with at least 30 home runs and 99 RBIs.

The Astros have scheduled an afternoon news conference. General manager Tim Purpura declined to comment.

Lee's pounded out at least 30 home runs and 30 doubles over the last four seasons. I'm surprised he didn't get as much as Soriano. Maybe it's a percieved lack of speed. Lee doesn't steal a lot of bases, but he rarely gets caught.

Carlos Lee appears to be headed for a big payday.

The Astros made an initial offer to Lee last week in excess of $12 million annually for no less than five years. They have since raised the offer into the five-year, $73 million range paid by the Chicago Cubs to retain third baseman Aramis Ramirez, according to a high-ranking National League official.

...

One official with a team competing with the Astros for Lee's services said he has been led to believe there is at least one $90 million offer on the table.

I assume Theo Epstein's phone is ringing off the hook with teams that are dying to pay Manny Ramirez's $20 million a year. A-Rod is even starting to look cheap right now.

The Los Angeles Dodgers completed the rumored deal for Juan Pierre:

Center fielder Juan Pierre and the Los Angeles Dodgers finalized a five-year contract worth about $45 million on Wednesday, giving the team additional speed at the top of the lineup.

All that speed really helps when you return to the bench after making an out.

"Juan's ability to hit combined with his speed make him a perfect catalyst for our lineup," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said in a statement. "His work ethic and character are second-to-none, and he knows what it takes to win. He's dedicated to the community and I truly believe the city of Los Angeles is going to love this player."

To once again pull out one of my favorite Bill James quotes:

I mean, I would never say that it was not important to have a team with a good attitude, but Christ, Sparky, there are millions of people in this country who have good attitudes, but there are only about 200 who can play a major-league brand of baseball, so which are you going to take?

Juan put together two very good years for Florida in 2003 and 2004. But since then, while hits remained high, his walks and OBA dropped. And that dropped him from a decent leadoff man to a poor one. He averaged 21 win shares in 2003-2004, 15 the last two seasons. He made over 500 outs in 2006. That made him responsible for over 18 games worth of outs. Is that what you really want at the top of the lineup? Even if he does have a good attitude?

MLB Trade Rumors links to a piece on Fox that puts Gary Matthews Jr. in an Angels uniform for five years and $50 million. From Trade Rumors reaction:

Matthews has had one good season in his career. Of course, that was last year, and it was great, so he positioned himself well for the market. But the dude's 32, he'd never been much above average before, he put up his good offensive numbers in a major hitter's park, and he may not be that great of a center fielder. Having GMJ under contract for the next five years ensures that the Angels will have an overpaid corner outfielder even after Garret Anderson's contract runs out.

Sarge's career line is .263/.336/.419. According to ZiPS, Maicer Izturis is going to have a better season than that. (I know Izturis doesn't play center, just...eight figures for utility infielder offense?)

I've been a booster of Matthews for a long time. I always thought there was some underlying talent, the ability to get on base that was never allowed to develop. Last year he showed it, but he was 31 at the time and playing in a very good offensive park. I don't really expect that to last very long. There have been some players who played better in their 30s than their 20s, but those people usually turned 30 at the cusp of an offensive explosion (Paul O'Neill comes to mind). It seems to me the Angels had to one up the Dodgers on giving a lot of money to an iffy centerfielder. At least the better player got more money.

Are there a lot of other offers on the table for these players? Was someone else offering Matthews a four year deal at $40 million? Or a five year deal at $45 million?

It's an absolutely terrific year to be a free agent.

I'm waiting for this deal to be official before making a comment. It's one of those times you hope a source is wrong.

The New York Mets signed Moises Alou to a one year contract with an option for 2008.

The 40-year-old slugger finalized an $8.5 million, one-year contract on Monday with the NL East champions, who also declined their $14 million option on left-hander Tom Glavine and swapped young pitchers with the Florida Marlins in a four-player trade.

Alou's deal includes a $7.5 million club option for 2008 with $1 million buyout. The six-time All-Star, who gets a $7.5 million salary next season, said he turned down two-year offers from other teams to join the Mets.

"The length of my contract doesn't really matter at this point in my career," Alou said. "I wanted to come here because this year -- I wanted to win this year."

This, of course, puts Lastings Milledge in limbo. Rather than spending a lot of time at AAA, I suspect Milledge will get time in the majors replacing Alou when he's down for a month with injuries. Alou is a good hitter, but at his age he can become a bad hitter pretty quickly. The Mets are filling a hole, they're not paying too much, and there's no long term commitment. If Alou can't play and Milledge matures, New York is out just $8 million or so. It might have been more cost effective to work on Lasting's attitude during the off-season and give him a chance to earn the job in 2007, but if he needs a full season at AAA, I can't really argue with the move.

The trade doesn't look like all that much. The two pitchers the Mets received walk a lot of batters. Florida looks like it's trying to improve its bullpen with more mature pitchers who haven't really broken into the majors yet. Owens struck out a lot of batters in the minor leagues, and at 27 can go straight into an major league pen.

Nomar Garciaparra decided to stay with the Dodgers:

Garciaparra -- who grew up in nearby Whittier and graduated from St. John Bosco High in suburban Bellflower-- had said he was interested in staying with the Dodgers.

"I've loved every minute of it," he said last month.

Garciaparra became all the more attractive to the Dodgers after Drew opted out of the final three years of his contract earlier this month, making him eligible to become a free agent.

Nomar's OBA returned to his career level in 2006 after being below .367 for five seasons. A few more home runs and his slugging percentage would be up there, too. We'll find out later today what kind of money he's receiving.

By the way, nice additions at BaseballReference.com as they've added game logs and splits for players.

The Angles signed Justin Speier to a four year contract today.

The Angels, adding to one of the game's top bullpens, have agreed with Speier on a four-year, $18 million free-agent contract, FOXSports.com has learned.

The length of the contract, first reported by ESPN.com, is a surprise, considering that Speier, a right-hander, recently turned 33.

Speier is a good pitcher. He's 33, but he's only thrown 517 innings in his career. He strikes out batters, doesn't walk many, and doesn't give up many home runs. It's a new market, and 4 1/2 million a year doesn't seem like much.

Lookout Landing, however, think things are going insane:

This market is ridiculous. Run away, as fast as you can.

I disagree. Since the start of free agency, no stayed top salary for very long. Since the Manny and A-Rod contracts, however, the market took a pause. With the revenue stream on the rise again, salaries are on the rise again as well, as it should be. Yes, the years Soriano and Speier received are long for players their age. But I expect the yearly money to grow fast again, just like it did up until the A-Rod contract.

ESPN.com posted a report that Alfonso Soriano signed with the Cubs for about $17 million a year for eight years. I'm not surprised at the $17 million, given the thin free agent market, but I'm shocked by the length of the contract. Yes, he hits for power, but the guy owns a .325 career OBA. Having a career walk year at age 30 just doesn't impress me that much. But the Cubs don't really seem to go for OBA guys, so they got someone who works for them.

What this does, of course, is make everyone in the future more expensive. It's going to be real easy for players who both get on base and hit for power to hold up Soriano as an example of why they deserve more money. The union has to be real happy about this contract.

To his credit, Alfonso did everything right. He expressed his displeasure with moving to left, but didn't dwell on the issue. Offensively, he played better than ever, upping his value. And he's taking advantage of a low supply of quality free agents. He's signed a Manny Ramirez like contract without being anywhere near as good as Manny.

It's official, Frank Thomas is a Blue Jay.

The Toronto Blue Jays finalized a two-year, $18 million contract with veteran slugger Frank Thomas on Friday.

The Blue Jays reached a tentative deal with the 38-year-old designated hitter Wednesday night and spent Thursday wrapping up the details.

The contract includes a $10 million option for the 2009 season.

I find it fairly amazing that Frank Thomas never earned over $10 million in a season. He just never timed his contracts and injuries right.

Sports Illustrated is reporting that Frank Thomas is about to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays are closing in a deal with free agent Frank Thomas for $23 million over two years, SI.com has learned.

Thomas hit 39 home runs and had 114 RBIs in a major comeback season in 2006, leading the Oakland A's into the American League Championship Series after signing with them for only $500,000 guaranteed plus $3 million in incentives.

The Blue Jays designated hitters hit for average and power, but didn't do a great job of getting on base. Thomas should improve both OBA and slugging at the position.

It looks like the Athletics might replace Frank with Barry Bonds, keeping Barry at home in the Bay Area.

The Cubs signed Mark DeRosa to a three-year contract, with the idea that he'd be their everyday second baseman. I wanted to say something positive about this, but all I can muster is that he's better than their usual middle infielder signing. For his career, his OBA is about league average. However, he's just a year younger than Todd Walker, and Todd got on base a lot better than Mark does. DeRosa comes cheap, so there's an improvement over what the Cubs had at second at the end of the season, and he doesn't break the bank. He's a decent role player, which is fine if Lee and Ramirez are healthy and hitting.

The Chicago Cubs sign Aramis Ramirez, keeping him in the fold, according to FoxSports.com:

Rather than test free agency, third baseman Aramis Ramirez has decided to remain with the Chicago Cubs.

Ramirez, 28, has agreed to a five-year contract with a vesting option, FOXSports.com has learned. While exact terms of the deal were not immediately available, it was believed to be for at least $70 million.

I can't argue with the money. Ramirez is a very good hitter at an important defensive position. But as Rosenthal points out:

Think maybe now the Cubs regret giving Ramirez an escape clause rather than additional money in the four-year, $42 million extension he signed at the start of the 2005 season?

If the Cubs had increased the size of that contract, by, say, an additional $10 million, Ramirez likely would have dropped his demand for the out clause. The Cubs then would have had him signed through '08, at a far lesser salary than they will pay him in his new deal.

Talk about a hollow victory: Proud as the Cubs might be that first baseman Derrek Lee is signed through 2010 and Ramirez through 2011, they still must pursue two starting pitchers, an outfield slugger, a center fielder and maybe a second baseman this off-season.

It seems doubtful the Cubs would sign free agent Alfonso Soriano to a deal in the $100 million range when they've already got big money committed to Ramirez and Lee.

Of course, if the Cubs were developing good players of their own, they wouldn't need to be in a position to acquire all these players. They've invested a lot of money in two excellent players, but they don't have the supporting cast to back them up.

More evidence this is a very good year to be a free agent:

The auction starts today, and the Angels already have their hands up. Today is the first day teams can bid upon free agents, and the Angels plan to submit opening bids so high that a player or two will accept right away and other teams will take their money elsewhere.

The union must love reading stories like this. The last few years, the owners got the market right, keeping the supply of free agents high enough that the alternatives kept the price from going to high. This year, with supply down, the money is coming out.

It looks like Aramis Ramirez and the Chicago Cubs failed to reach an agreement.

Third baseman Aramis Ramirez will test free agency, FOXSports.com has learned, creating yet another hole for a team that already had planned to pursue two starting pitchers, an outfield slugger, a center fielder and maybe a second baseman. The Cubs' period of exclusivity with Ramirez expires at midnight Eastern time on Saturday. They can still re-sign him, but Ramirez is certain to attract heavy interest from the Angels and other clubs.

Think maybe now the Cubs regret giving Ramirez an escape clause rather than additional money in the four-year, $42 million deal he signed at the start of the 2005 season?

If the Cubs had increased the size of that contract, say, by an additional $10 million, Ramirez almost certainly would have dropped his demand for the out clause. The Cubs then would have kept him through '08 at a significantly lesser salary than the one they offered -- and Ramirez rejected -- in their latest talks.

The only bright side for the Cubs -- if you're looking for positive spin -- is that the elimination of Ramirez's $22.5 million guarantee over the next two seasons will better enable the team to add pitching and sign a major free-agent hitter such as Alfonso Soriano.

Ramirez turned out to be more consistently good than he played with Pittsburgh. That's made him more valuable, and probably contributed to him taking the escape clause.

Bill Conlin makes a case against Soriano. Although he starts with some Bill James statistics, it's really the strikeouts that bother him:

That's how 473 strikeouts look all lined up to march into box scores, ready to kill rallies. That's how many times Ryan Howard (181), Soriano (160) and Utley (132) walked slowly back to the dugout last season.

You're talking about the 3-4-5 spots in the Phillies' batting order. And, yes, the thought of the 136 homers they hit last season is intoxicating. However, the mind boggles at the stranded RISP numbers all those strikeouts represent. Abandon all hope should general manager Pat Gillick be stuck with Mr. Irrelevant in leftfield. Pat Burrell had an amazing 131 strikeouts last season in just 462 at-bats. That raises the 2006 total for the quartet to 604. That's three mortal-lock Ks in the bank for each of 162 games.

The basic premise at work is the menace of Soriano on deck would keep managers from pitching around Howard, particularly with an open base. Remember, Soriano racked up his 160 while mainly leading off for the Nationals. If the guy was swinging at paper cups blowing past the plate in a spot where getting on base any whichway used to be the idea, imagine him in the four hole.

That returns us to baserunning, of course. If Charlie Manuel sticks Fonzi's righthanded bat between his lefty swingers, Howard would have to hit No. 3.

That is simply flawed thinking. If you had to clone a prototypical No. 4 hitter, you would come up with the current Ryan Howard model.

But you also would be stuck with the sixth-least efficient baserunner in the majors. Howard runs hard. He runs with good judgment. He just runs slower than bulk-rate mail. Utley is a plus 27. Ryan is a minus 21, which ties him with Burrell and reflects 4-for-24 going first to third, 9-for-16 second to home and 8-for-14 first to home.

So now assume Charlie has 40-40 man Soriano hitting behind Howard. So they single back-to-back with one out. No stolen base there - Howard is camped on second. Utley lines a single to right. Howard is held at third. Soriano is forced to slam on the brakes at second. Bases loaded, one out. That's three stranded runners waiting to happen.

Of course, if Soriano is actually going to put up a .360 OBA, he's a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. So one way around this is batting Soriano leadoff and Rollins 8th. Or bat Utley third and Howard fifth, or just don't worry all that much about batting lefties back-to-back. Utley 3rd, Howard 4th, Soriano 5th will work just fine.

J.D. Drew opted out of the remaining three of his contract with the Dodgers:

Colletti said he was told Monday by Scott Boras, Drew's agent, that this move was a possibility. Then, Colletti said, he awoke Thursday to find a message on his cell phone from Boras giving him the news, which he received officially by fax in the afternoon.

"You learn in this business never to be surprised," Colletti said. "I'm surprised how it came down. Everything we had heard, everything that had been written led us to believe the player loved being here."

Drew, who turns 31 this month, hit .283 with 20 homers and 100 RBI last season -- his second with the Dodgers. He signed a five-year, $55 million contract Dec. 23, 2004, and had been guaranteed $33 million over the next three years with Los Angeles.

I didn't realize there were clauses in contracts that allowed a player to opt out. Does anyone know if this is standard language? Colletti appears to be very upset.

While Colletti refused to say he was angry, his feelings came through during a 30-minute conference call.

"I hang onto my feelings," Colletti said. "You try to use some diplomacy right now."

But the GM also said: "I know J.D. is a spiritual guy and a man of his word. I guess he changed his word. You learn never to be surprised when you're dealing in this arena. People change their minds. People change their word. They move on."

Colletti said Boras never asked for Drew's contract to be re-negotiated. The contract called for Drew to earn $11 million in each of the next three years. Paul DePodesta was the Dodgers' GM when Drew signed with the team.

Asked about his relationship with Boras, Colletti replied: "Scott does a real good job of what he does. I've known Scott for a long time. All I'll say is he does a really good job of what he does."

It's apparent that the market changed since Drew signed that five year contract. With Soriano looking to make over $15 million a year, Boras realizes the market for Drew might be even better. Drew, after all, owns a career OBA 30 points higher than Soriano's best single season mark. The downside of J.D., of course, is his health. But this certainly changes the free agent landscape and puts the Dodgers in a big offensive hole.

Update: Red Sox bloggers at Firebrand of the American League already want Drew in Boston. I wonder if there's any chance of him winding up in Philadelphia? That would be a laugh.

Gary Matthews Jr. is another free agent that presents an interested GM with difficult decision. Matthews is a player that's confounded me over the seasons. He's always had a good eye for the strike zone, but never took his game to the next level. He'll play well for a stretch, then lousy for a stretch, and teams never seemed to give him the chance to work out of a slump. He's been waived three times in his career, until he finally caught on with the Rangers. His time in Baltimore seems to sum up his career. After the Met trade him to Baltimore, he puts up a .355 OBA. The Orioles give him just 162 at bats in 2003, and waive after he posts a .250 OBA. He then goes to San Diego and puts up a .346 OBA.

Well, at age 31, he finally put it all together. But if you take his career as a whole, it's just not that impressive. Except for last year, he's never hit for a high average. But if you send him to the plate 300 times, he'll draw a decent amount of walks and likely be above average in OBA. The team that signs him needs to be ready to allow him to play through the inevitable slump.

They also have to be prepared for a lot less production. Gary, due to his history and age is exactly the kind of player I'd expect to be a waste of big money. If anyone pays him over $10 million a year, they're likely to be sorry.

Padres RunDown makes the case for San Diego spending bucks for Barry.

Barry Zito represents the cream of the crop of available pitchers in the free agent pool this winter. Like Soriano, Barry benefits from a lack of supply at his position. The only two left-handed starters of note this winter are Andy Pettitte and Ted Lilly, and Pettitte is thinking of retirement. The problem facing teams signing Zito is that they're looking at a 29 year-old pitcher already in decline:

Barry Zito	Through 2003	2004-2006
ERA	3.12	4.05
K/9	7.2	6.6
BB/9	3.4	3.7
HR/9	0.79	1.10

It's interesting to note that Barry's decline corresponds to the departure of pitching coach Rick Peterson from Oakland. It makes you wonder if this gives the Mets the inside track on landing Zito.

How do you bid on such a pitcher? The lack of competition for lefty starters drives his price up, but his record over the last three seasons is good but not spectacular. A.J. Burnett recieved $11 million a season last year with better numbers than Barry. Zito is healthier, making 34 or 35 starts in each of the last six seasons.

Using talent and health, a good estimate for Barry's worth should be around Burnett's. It's a seller's market, however. The teams avoided this situation over the last few years, with enough free agents on the market to keep the price down. Now, a possible bidding war (especially among the New York teams) may drive Zito's price over $15 million a year. That will feed into following seasons, as Barry's money becomes the new base. Will owners be smart enough to avoid this and bid simply on what Zito is worth? With the new CBA and television money, I doubt it.

Although the overall number of free agents will likely be close to 200, the number of impact players in that group is fairly small. Going through the list yesterday of players who filed, I counted 21 that might make an impact. One of the more interesting hitters is Alfonso Soriano. Soriano played a career year in 2006. Through the 2005 season, his career averages were .280 BA, .320 OBA and a .500 slugging percentage. The 2006 season saw those averages come out at .277, .351 and .560. His batting average was right in line with his career, but OBA was well above his career average and 13 points above his previous high.

It turns out a player with a .320 OBA has a 4% chance of posting a.351 OBA over 726 plate appearances. So it's significant at the .05 level. Another way of looking at it is by a confidence interval, and the .351 is in the 95% confidence level for a player with a .320 OBA. In other words, Soriano was very close to his OBA in 2006 representing a new level of performance.

If I'm a GM interested in signing Alfonso, I'll want to know what changed. Why did he draw so many more walks than in 2006 than in previous seasons? Did the Washington coaches get him to change his approach? Was it that with a poor offense behind him, he got less to hit? If it was coaching, it this something that he's absorbed, or does he constantly need to be reminded?

At .350, with his power, he's a very productive player. At a .330 OBA, he's more of an out machine and certainly not a good leadoff hitter. My guess is that the teams convinced 2006 is real are the teams that wind up bidding for Alfonso. The other will find the money offered too rich.

The Brewers match the Pirates and sign a Cuban defector who's been out of baseball for two years.

Lookout Landing makes a case for not paying Jason Schmidt more than $10 million a year.

Any contract talk should operate under the assumption that, as an aging pitcher, Schmidt is unlikely to exceed his 2006 performance. Have him repeat his season in Safeco and he probably puts up an ERA around 3.80-4.00. Over 200+ innings, that guy's worth up to $10m or so, maybe a little less (I'm feeling generous). So even allowing for total consistency over the next several years, you're looking at an absolute max of $30m/3yr - $40m/4yr. I don't think that's going to get it done (although the latter has an outside shot).

But what are the odds that Schmidt staves off further decline for the life of his contract? Although his PECOTA page hasn't been updated for 2006, his list of Baseball-Reference comps is terrifying (this isn't authoritative by any means, but still). He turns 34 next January, his strikeout rate has dropped 24% in two years, and as a power pitcher with a history of high workloads he carries an elevated risk of injuries causing him to miss time or pitch worse. Plus, his walk rate's already teetering on the edge of acceptability, and any drop in command could make all kinds of bad things happen. Suddenly you're looking at something like (say) $25m/3yr - $32m/4yr, and that's definitely not going to cut it.

I don't want to get carried away and proclaim that the end is nigh for Jason Schmidt's career, because I don't think it is. Even in what looks like the early stages of an age-related decline, he still has a lot to give before he loses his usefulness, and after starting 32 games in 2006 it seems silly to call his durability into question. But at the same time, he and his agent are going to be asking the market for a #1-type contract, and the smart money's on Schmidt not holding up his end of the bargain.

The only problem with this analysis is that we don't know what the market will bear. I suspect Jason is better than most pitchers who are available via free agency this off season, and that alone will drive his price up. At any price, Schmidt is not going to turn the Mariners into champions. There are tons of holes offensively with only the leadoff hitter posting a decent OBA and the heart of the order supplying minimum power. Johan Santana would have a tough time winning with that offense. Spending a lot on a simply good pitcher isn't the best place to put the Mariners money.

For those looking for a list of free agents, FoxSports.com posted one. ESPN has a link, but it doesn't work yet.

Marcus Hayes writes on how the Phillies might eat some of Pat Burrell's salary to bring Alfonso Soriano on board. It's an interesting switch; Soriano is a year older. Burrell's career OBA is about 30 points higher than Soriano's, but Alfonso beats him in slugging percentage by 30 points. Soriano brings speed and an excellent base stealing resume with him. Alfonso is going to go for about $15 million a year, whereas Burrell with get $13.5 million a year over the next two seasons. Do Phillies fans feel the extra money is worth it, especailly if the team ends up paying part of Burrell's salary?

There's also the possibility that the Phillies keep Burrell and put Soriano in right. I like that a lot better.

The Nationals are now denying the earlier story about Soriano. Hat tip 6-4-2.

Alfonso Soriano turned down an offer of $70 million dollars for five years.

Alfonso Soriano has rejected a $70 million, five-year contract offer from the Washington Nationals, diminishing any chance the perennial All-Star will stay with the club.

"It's almost impossible this great player will stay on our payroll," Nationals special assistant Jose Rijo told the newspaper Listin Diario in Thursday editions.

If that's the opening bid, Soriano is going to do very well. I believe that's the same deal Vlad Guerrero signed when he joined the Angels. Vlad's posted eight seasons of 20 wins shares or more, Soriano three. Given his age, it's not likely he's going to repeat his career year. If I were a GM, $70 million for five years would be my best offer.

Update: The Nationals are denying the story.

Roch Kubatko notes the Yankees are on Zito's short list of teams he'd like to join:

Zito's friend, former Orioles outfielder Eric Byrnes, says the left-hander has three or four teams on his preferred list. The Yankees are one of them.

Barry would be one of the better pitching signings for the Yankees. He's left-handed, and his 2007 seasonal age is 29.

Roch Kubatko notes the Yankees are on Zito's short list of teams he'd like to join:

Zito's friend, former Orioles outfielder Eric Byrnes, says the left-hander has three or four teams on his preferred list. The Yankees are one of them.

Barry would be one of the better pitching signings for the Yankees. He's left-handed, and his 2007 seasonal age is 29.

Miguel Cabrera picks up his 48th double, another hit with runners in scoring position. It drives in two and raises Cabrera's batting average to .341, which has him ahead of Freddy Sanchez for the NL batting lead.

Update: The Mets walk Amezaga to pitch to Anibal Sanchez in the bottom of the third, and Sanchez picks up his second hit of the night, driving in the seventh run of the night for the Marlins. Sanchez is leading the Mets in hits 2-1 tonight.

It looks like Cuban stars Yulieski Gourriel and Eduardo Paret defected from Cuba. Here's the Spanish language article and here's the Google translation.

It seems Gourrriel is headed for the Yankees.

Update: Here's Gourriel's entry from Wikipedia. He's believed to be 22, which makes him an extremely valuable commodity. He's listed as a third baseman, but the Cubans often play him at second. So who's he going to replace, A-Rod or Cano?

Update: Baseball Think Factory was the first to notice this.

Update: Here's a contradiction. This story has Gourriel in Cuba on Thursday.

Juan Gonzalez signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox:

The Red Sox hope the 36-year-old, oft-injured outfielder can bounce back and show the form he displayed when he had three 140-RBI seasons.

He last had 140 RBI at age 31 in 2001. Over the last four seasons, he's had 122 RBI.

The Red Sox don't really expect him to return to that level of performance. They'd be real happy, however, if he returned to his .295/.343/.561 career averages. If he can hit, most likely he'd be a right-handed platoon for Trot Nixon or David Ortiz.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Erubiel Durzao signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers today. He probably can't play first after the Tommy John surgery, so the Rangers will see if he can be their DH:

He is expected to compete for DH at-bats with David Dellucci and Phil Nevin. Durazo ranked fifth among AL hitters in average (.321) and was seventh in on-base percentage (.396) in 2004.

I always worry a bit about a team when they have competition for the DH spot. You never want to be too heavy on the offensive end of the defensive spectrum. If he can hit, however, Erubiel gives the Rangers the best combination of on-base and power of the three candidates.

Sammy Sosa turned down the contract offer from the Washington Nationals. Since I've heard of no other offers, Sammy's career might be over.

Sosa's career is fascinating. Through age 28, (the 1997 season), Sammy did not get on base. Then at age 28, his OBA jumped up to .377 and stayed there. His selectivity helped lead to a power explosion as well, as he hit over 60 home runs in 3 of the next four seasons. When Sosa should have been on the downside of his career, he put together five consecutive superlative seasons.

It fell apart just as quickly. In 2003, age 34, his power and on-base slipped, but were still good. Of course, that was the year they found cork in his bat. Then in 2004, injuries took their toll, and Sammy's attitude, which all had loved, went sour. The fans turned on Sosa, and he was gone.

He did nothing with Baltimore last year, and now clubs are only willing to pay him a baseball pittance. Will anyone up the ante, or is this the end of Sammy Sosa?

At least if you believe Arte Moreno's name for the Angels. LAnaheim signed the Jeff Weaver to a one year contract for $8.4 million. The Angels are trying to corner the market on Weavers:

His younger brother, Jered, a former pitching star for Long Beach State, is a prospect in the Angels' organization.

I'm not impressed. Weaver can give a team innings, but that's about it. He's never posted more than 14 win shares in a season. He consumes innings, which is fine on a deep staff, but he's a 3rd or 4th starter at best. I guess even that level of pitching commands a lot of money today.

Sammy Sosa considers retirement:

"Sammy wants to get to 600 home runs, but he's not willing to humiliate himself to keep playing. He feels that the lack of interest in his services this winter constitutes a humiliation," added the source.

It's always impressive how fast a player can go from sure thing to set a record to an also ran. At the end of 2003, not only did Sosa seem like a lock for 600 home runs, he looked like he would make a serious run at Aaron. Now, not only is Aaron out of the question, Sammy, like his co-competitor Mark McGwire, may be out of baseball with 600 less than a season away.

Gary Jacobson of the Dallas Morning News examines how much revenue Roger Clemens might bring to the Rangers:

In 2004, Clemens' first season with the Astros, the club increased attendance by 630,000.

Doing the same thing in Arlington this year would generate more than $18 million in extra ticket, concession, merchandise and parking revenue for the Rangers, according to an analysis by The Dallas Morning News. As a fan magnet, other than a new stadium, nothing beats winning, sports business experts say.

It seems to me the News is making a pretty conservative estimate of how much money the Rangers get from each fan:

Depken, who has studied the economics of Major League Baseball for about eight years, estimates that the Rangers receive an average of about $18 for each ticket sold and another $11.50 for parking, concessions and merchandise.

The News used his total – $29.50 per fan – to make its revenue estimates, based on increased attendance assumptions.

An independent minor league owner once told me that a fan in a seat is worth $20 to his club. I would believe a major league fan is worth much more than that. It could be the News story is talking net revenue rather than gross revenue.

Bengie Molina signed with the Blue Jays this afternoon.

Free-agent catcher Bengie Molina is the club’s latest acquisition in perhaps its most memorable winter, signing a one-year deal worth $4.5 million (all figures U.S.) with a mutual option for 2007 worth $7.5 million with a $500,000 buyout.

Molina becomes the club’s fifth major upgrade, joining power right-hander Burnett, closer B.J. Ryan, slugging third baseman Troy Glaus and first baseman Lyle Overbay.

“We’re thrilled that Bengie Molina is now a Blue Jay,” said team president Paul Godfrey. “The team is much different from last year, a lot of power in the lineup, a lot of good arms in the rotation now and we’re very, very excited.”

I'm not sure if this is really an upgrade. Zaun produced 14 wins shares to Bengie's 15 in 2005. I suppose that with Molina being younger, he's more likely to repeat that kind of season.

It's not a great contract coming off a career year. I'm sure that Bengie wishes he jumped at this Mets offer:

Molina was courted heavily by several teams, reportedly turning down an $18-million-US, three-year deal with the New York Mets. He played things out down to the wire before finally settling with the Jays.

The Red Sox are just a physical away from signing Alex Gonzalez to a one year, $3 million deal. Compared to Renteria last season, Gonzalez neither helps nor hurts the Red Sox. He just moves the wins from the offensive side of the ledger to the defensive side. In 2005, The Hardball Times calculates that Edgar Renteria earned 11.3 wins shares with his bat, 2.7 with his glove. Gonzalez, on the other hand, earned 6.9 with his bat, 6.2 with his glove. It's clear now that when the Red Sox signed Renteria to a $10 million a year contract, they expected him to return to his mid-20's win share form. That didn't happen. So if they're going to get win shares in the low teens from their shortstop they're paying less. There will be fewer runs scored and allowed in Fenway this season.

Now that all the manuvering is complete, nice job by the Red Sox this off season. The refused to over pay Damon, got rid of an another overpaid player in Renteria, and picked a centerfielder with some upside along the way. I don't think they're a better team, but they're very close to where they were last year, saved some money, and gave the farm system another year to develop while they stay competitive. And if you're competitive, a little luck can take you a long way.

Update: Welcome Boston Dirt Dog readers!

Roger Clemens showed up at the Astros mini-camp yesterday, and threw batting practice to his son, Koby. He also talked about returning for another season.

Following the 20-minute workout, Clemens said he's still not sure if he wants to pitch again.

"One week I get up and feel like I can do it again, and the next week I don't want to get out here in the outfield and start running those poles and doing those things," Clemens said. "If last year's World Series was it for me, I'm more than happy. We didn't reach our ultimate goal, but it was a lot of fun.

"I have a lot to think about on that. Everywhere I go — I was just at a few events — and (Derek Jeter) and (Jorge) Posada are talking to me all the time about (coming to) the Yankees. Every time I come here, everybody talks about coming back to Houston, and I appreciate it. It gives me the opportunity to go out the way I want to go out."

I still think Clemens will take off until May 1, then sign with the Astros. That way, a shorter season may hold off the injuries that limited his effectiveness in the post season.

Mike Piazza heads back to California, and it looks like he'll be the Padres first string catcher:

"The Padres told Mike that he could pretty much catch as much as he wanted to," said Piazza's agent, Dan Lozano.

Piazza is hoping to catch about 90-100 games this season, along with playing some first base and being the DH in interleague games.

The one thing that hasn't disappeared from Piazza's game is his power, and he's going to a ballpark that will cut down on his long balls. I just don't see where it makes much sense for Piazza or the Padres. With PETCO being a low run field, defense becomes very important. I don't believe Mike will be a positive contributor defensively, and in that environment, I'm not sure how much he can contribute offensively.

It's just $2 million however, so I guess it's worth the risk that he has one more great season in him.

The Athletics pick up a big slugger cheap, signing Frank Thomas to a one-year, $500,000 contract:

Thomas, a two-time American League MVP who has been slowed by injuries in recent years, can make an additional $2.6 million in bonuses based on plate appearances and not hurting his left foot. He played his first 16 seasons with the Chicago White Sox, who won their first World Series title since 1917 last season.

The low-budget A's have spent recent offseasons losing big-name players such as Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Damon, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. But after missing the postseason for the second straight year following four consecutive trips to the playoffs, Oakland general manager Billy Beane has added Thomas and Milton Bradley to a lineup that struggled to score runs at times last season _ and done so without losing anyone of significance.

Thomas was deadly last season when he played, launching 12 home runs in just 105 at bats, while drawing 16 walks. He didn't hit much except for the home runs (in was a Rob Deer type season), but at $500,000, it's certainly worth the risk. The upside is that Thomas hits 30 homers with a .360 OBA. The downside is you pull someone out of the minors to be the DH.

The Texas Rangers made their first pitch to Roger Clemens today:

Rangers owner Tom Hicks said Monday that he has drafted a letter on behalf of the club to Clemens' agent, Allan Hendricks, describing the reasons why Arlington would be a good professional home in 2006 for the 43-year-old future Hall of Famer. Hicks said he planned to send the letter Monday.

With family issues of importance to Roger, Dallas keeps him somewhat close to home. On top of that, of course, the Rangers can offer him big money as well.

Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com is reporting that Julian Tavarez is about to sign with the Red Sox.

The Red Sox, making another move to bolster their late-inning relief, have reached terms free-agent right-hander Julian Tavarez on a two-year contract with a vesting option, FOXSports.com has learned.

The deal is contingent on Tavarez passing a physical.

Tavarez keeps the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs over 128 innings in 2003 and 2004. For his career he's allowed just 83 home runs in 1081 1/3 innings pitched, a rate of 0.69 home runs per nine innings.

There's a report at ESPNdeportes.com that Sammy Sosa is in discussions with the Washington Nationals. Signing Sammy would cause a logjam, however.

If he were to sign with the Nationals, Sosa would probably move to left field, with Jose Guillen most likely in right field and Ryan Church in center. Complicating matters would be Alfonso Soriano, who the Nats have wanted to move to the outfield, but who has also resisted a change from second base. Washington also signed veteran outfielder Michael Tucker this week.

What's interesting to me is that Washington is one of the worst places to play if you want to reach a home run milestone. If Sosa really wants to reach 600 home runs, why not offer your services to the Rockies? Or go back to the Texas Rangers where he could DH?

Jeff Weaver and the Los Angeles Dodgers failed to reach an agreement last night, and Weaver will likely be pitching for one of the other 29 clubs come spring training. He cannot sign with his current team until May 1.

Weaver is a tough pitcher to figure out. I look at his stats and think he should be a better pitcher than he actually is. His strikeouts are fine, his walks allowed are very good and until this year he kept the ball in the park. He does have a huge flaw, however, giving up power to lefties. The splits in the Day by Day Database go back to 2000, so we miss the first year of Weaver's career, but look at his huge platoon difference.

Another flaw with Weaver is how he's done with ducks on the pond. Look at this numbers with the bases empty vs. runners in scoring position over the last six seasons. A 50 point jump in OBA and a 40 point jump in slugging percentage. And he's just been creamed with runners on third base and < 2 out. If a team has a opportunity to score against Weaver, the run finds a way to cross the plate.

The Boston Red Sox filled an important hole today, picking up a top defensive first baseman.

Free agent first baseman J.T. Snow has agreed to terms on a one-year, $2 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. The deal will become official later Friday, pending a physical exam.

There's no word if he can play short or center.

Actually, Snow is not a bad pickup as a backup. He's not a loss offensively as he does a good job of getting on base. And he'll certainly prevent any late-inning Bill Buckner moments.

Of course, it would help if Ryan Franklin could pitch:

The Phillies were attracted to Franklin in part by his durability. He has averaged 31 starts and 201 innings over the past three seasons.

He also posts a very low strikeout rate while allowing a good number of home runs. That doesn't strike me as the type of pitcher you want twirling in Philadelphia.

There seems to be conflicting reasons for Jeromy Burnitz breaking his verbal agreement with the Orioles. From the agent:

"It definitely was us more than the Orioles," said Simon on the decision to break the verbal agreement, quashing speculation that the Orioles had pulled out of the deal because they were about to land Ramirez. "We didn't want to do it, but it had to do with some language that was unacceptable to us concerning medical examinations.

"We had a verbal understanding. There can be a verbal agreement, but when you see the written words, if there is language that is prohibitive or threatening, then you have to decide whether you are going to agree to it or not sign it. ... It had nothing to do with the terms or the finances of the contract."

From Burnitz:

The Orioles made some revisions to the contract in an attempt to appease Simon, but they were not enough. They also spoke directly to Burnitz, who told the club that he backed out of the deal for family reasons. The Pirates make more trips to California, where Burnitz was born and where his family is.

There also appeared to be some uncertainty on Burnitz's part about where he'd fit in with the club if the Orioles acquired Ramirez.

It's official, the Pittsburgh Pirates inked Burnitz.

Update: The article linked above changed from the one I read earlier today. That article indicated it was a done deal. This one goes back on that. Sorry for the confusion.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz reports that the Astros are on the verge of signing Preston Wilson:

He has played center field most of his career. It remains to be seen what would happen with Willy Taveras, the center fielder who was second in Rookie of the Year balloting in 2005.

Wilson, who earned $12.5 million in 2005, would likely get a contract worth less per year than the one-year, $6 million offer Nomar Garciaparra spurned from the Astros.

But Wilson's stay in Houston could be longer than a year. Both sides are still mulling over contract options for a potential second year.

"Things are more positive than not," Purpura said.

Wilson brings a lot more power to the position than Taveras, but he's not that much better at getting on base (and Taveras plays for much less money). In 2005, Wilson earned 14 win shares to Taveras' 13. The Astros appear to be filling a hole they don't need to fill, unless there's a trade in the works.

Last week, it appeared the Orioles were going to sign Jeromy Burnitz. Some even speculated that acquiring the right fielder would lessen the team's need for Manny Ramirez.

Now it comes out that the anonymous source was wrong:

The Pittsburgh Pirates are close to a deal to sign free-agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz, who had been close to signing with the Orioles, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported today.

A high-ranking Orioles official who spoke last week on the condition of anonymity, said that the two sides essentially had reached a verbal agreement on a two-year deal worth approximately $12 million.

The official said there was some minor contractual language to work out and that Burnitz also had to pass a physical for the Orioles deal to become official, but neither seemed to threaten the outfielder's coming to Baltimore, where he was expected to become the starting left fielder.

It makes you wonder if Burnitz looked at the Orioles situation with Tejada and decided he rather play in Pittsburgh. Here's more on the Pirates end of the deal:

Most of Burnitz's production for the Cubs came out of the cleanup spot, which is where the Pirates would use him, with Jason Bay and Sean Casey batting around him -- one in the third spot, the other fifth -- and Joe Randa at sixth. Burnitz has topped 100 strikeouts in each of his nine full seasons of Major League Baseball, including 109 last year, but management says it believes it can minimize that by surrounding him with good contact men such as Casey and Randa.

It might seem Burnitz's bat would be a good fit for PNC Park, given the proximity of the Clemente Wall in right field and his ability to pull the ball, but his history there is spotty. He has a .174 average and three home runs in 92 at-bats.

There is little doubt Burnitz would be a good fit in right field. He showed two seasons ago in Denver's spacious Coors Field he could cover enough ground to spend 69 games as the Colorado Rockies' center fielder, and he would not have nearly that much territory at PNC Park. Also, he has a strong and accurate arm that would be accented by the shorter throws to the infield.

Right field is the last unchecked mark on Littlefield's list of positions he said he hoped to upgrade this offseason, the others being first base (Casey), third base (Randa) and right-handed relief (Roberto Hernandez).

What I don't understand is why Littlefield thought he needed to upgrade in right field. Craig Wilson is as good a hitter as Burnitz, probably better at this point. Right field was one of the few offensive bright spots for the Pirates last year. How does Burnitz help the team? It seems the Pirates are spending the money just to spend the money.

I thought Pokey Reese might be a solution to the Red Sox hole at shortstop, but the Florida Marlins signed him. Reese can't hit, but he had a good glove at short, so at least he could have provided the Sox with some defense. He'll be flashing the leather in Miami, instead.

Kevin Millwood officially joined the Texas Rangers today. As expected, the Rangers are calling the deal a four-year contract. Millwood put up a good attitude about the park:

The steady righthander, last year’s American League ERA leader, said the ballpark’s powers of ERA destruction were of no consequence. He signed a four-year, $48 million deal (with an incentive-laden option that could nudge it into five-year, $60 million territory.)

“The way I look at it, when I go out on the mound, there’s a guy on the other team that’s pitching in the same park,” Millwood said. “The numbers might not be are great as they are in some other parks. But the final thing is all about winning.”

He's also not fazed by becoming the ace:

“You can number your starters one through five if you want,” Millwood said. “But every guy that goes out there has got to pitch like a No. 1 guy. If you don’t then you’re in trouble.”

He's off to a good start with that press conference.

Kevin Millwood officially joined the Texas Rangers today. As expected, the Rangers are calling the deal a four-year contract. Millwood put up a good attitude about the park:

The steady righthander, last year’s American League ERA leader, said the ballpark’s powers of ERA destruction were of no consequence. He signed a four-year, $48 million deal (with an incentive-laden option that could nudge it into five-year, $60 million territory.)

“The way I look at it, when I go out on the mound, there’s a guy on the other team that’s pitching in the same park,” Millwood said. “The numbers might not be are great as they are in some other parks. But the final thing is all about winning.”

He's also not fazed by becoming the ace:

“You can number your starters one through five if you want,” Millwood said. “But every guy that goes out there has got to pitch like a No. 1 guy. If you don’t then you’re in trouble.”

He's off to a good start with that press conference.

The Pirates signed Joe Randa on Wednesday to play third base. I like the spin by the author of the article:

Randa, 36, hit 17 home runs and drove in 68 runs while batting .276 with a .335 on-base percentage for the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres last season. Over the course of his 10-year major-league career, Randa has produced 119 home runs, 711 RBI, a .285 batting average and a .240 on-base percentage. His lifetime fielding percentage is .962.

Basically, he is a lot like Bill Mueller, whom the Pirates tried in vain to sign earlier this month.

Bill Mueller, with a 30 point lower OBA. The move will likely keep the Pirates third base prospect in the minors:

Such a move would also mean that power-hitting third-base prospect Jose Bautista -- 23 home runs and 90 RBI in 445 at-bats for Double A Altoona last season -- likely will start the 2006 season at Class AAA Indianapolis.

Is Bautista really a prospect at this point? He's 25 years old. If you're not in the majors by the time you're 25, you're not going to have much of a career. The truth is the Pirates needed a third baseman, and Randa is the best they can do.

Update: There's a typo in the original story quoted above. Randa has a .340 career OBA, not a .240 OBA.

Chad Bradford signed with the Mets yesterday.

"When you're a guy with a unique delivery and you switch leagues and guys have no history with you, it's a great advantage," Met pitching coach Rick Peterson said yesterday. "He's been a dominant ground-ball pitcher. Before the back problem, he was a premier right-on-right specialty guy because he gets grounders. "He had a couple of big years for us in Oakland, facing the best righthanded hitters in the league."

Bradford indicated that knowing Peterson was one of the reasons he picked the Mets. "New York is a great situation for me," Bradford said. "I worked with Rick Peterson in Oakland and I know what he can do. With all the offseason additions, I'm sure the Mets will be contending for a playoff spot and I want to do all I can to help."

I was hoping Colorado would give the submariner a try, but I understand why Chad would want to play for the Mets.

The Diamondbacks found their stop-gap in center field by signing Eric Byrnes to a one-year contract. Byrnes doesn't have a great OBA for his career. Josh Byrnes was talking about a better OBA for the team yesterday, but I don't see how this move helps that.

The Cleveland Indians signed former Oriole and Tiger Jason Johnson to a one-year, $4 million contract. He'll take the spot in the rotation occupied by Kevin Millwood. Johnson has a 4.88 ERA. Why did Cleveland agree to put such a pitcher in their rotation? Let's look at his walk and strikeout rates over his career:

Jason Johnson, career.

Season	Seasonal Age	Kper9	BBper9
1997	23	4.5	1.5
1998	24	5.4	4.05
1999	25	5.54	4.292
2000	26	6.604	5.099
2001	27	5.235	3.536
2002	28	6.647	2.81
2003	29	5.599	3.796
2004	30	5.72	2.746
2005	31	3.986	2.1

Johnson's improved his walk numbers greatly over the last few seasons. Unfortunately, his strikeout numbers sank to a new low in 2005, not reaching four per 9. So batters put a lot of balls in play against Johnson. The Indians, however, play excellent defense, posting the 2nd best DER in 2005 in the American League. That means they can cover up Johnson's weakness in strikeouts, while taking advantage of his strength in walks. He's a cheap fifth starter who should give the Indians 200 innings, and he won't kill the team because of the defense behind him.

The Texas Rangers land a big name free agent pitcher, signing Kevin Millwood to a quasi five-year deal:

Millwood is the first pitcher to get a five-year deal from Texas since Chan Ho Park. The Rangers had said repeatedly that they wouldn't give out five-year contracts for pitchers again after the club's ill-fated signing of Park for $65 million before the 2002 season.

But they made an exception for Millwood, a front-line starter who should lead a rotation that has been reshaped this off-season.

The fifth year depends on Millwood reaching a certain level, so I guess the Rangers will argue it's not really a five year deal. Are they getting another Chan Ho Park, however?

The thing that struck me about Park at the time of the Texas deal was Chan Ho's home/road breakdown. Park's ERA in his time with the Dodgers was almost two runs worse away from Los Angeles. It's not clear why, however. Park walked a few more people on the road, but struck out more and his home runs allowed were nearly the same. What's clear is that many more balls in play were falling for hits away from Chavez Ravine. There was something about Dodger Stadium that greatly benefited Park, and that benefit did not exist on the road.

Millwood's been pretty even home and road (having called a few different parks home over the years). What should be encouraging to the Rangers are his splits at Citizens Bank Park, a park with a high home run index. According to The Bill James Handbook 2006, Texas has a home run index of 119, second highest in the AL. Philadelphia has an index of 121, second in the NL. Millwood allowed just eight home runs in Philadelphia in 2004 vs. six on the road. Part of it may be that Millwood was willing to intimidate batters, as he hit six at CBP but just one on the road that year.

So the home/road problem isn't there for Millwood. The evidence is that ball parks don't effect him very much. My big question is, do the Rangers believe they are getting the AL ERA leader? Millwood's league leading ERA in 2005 was due to a combination of luck and good defense. His DIPS ERA (3.88) was a run higher than his actual ERA (2.86). Millwood pitched extremely well with runners in scoring position last season, something that is out of character with previous seasons.

What the Rangers have is a pitcher that's capable of posting an ERA in the low fours. Given the level of offense Texas produces every year, Millwood can win a lot of games with that level of pitching. That makes him worth a lot of money to the Rangers. We'll know just how much when the contract is finalized.

The other day I wondered how much more the Yankees had to pay to get Johnny Damon away from Boston. Cashman answered that at the press conference yesterday:

Cashman phoned Damon over the weekend.

''At that point," Cashman said, ''he was disgruntled with how the process had gone with the Red Sox negotiation for whatever reason, but he was also honest in the fact that he had a very strong bond with that fan base. Separating himself from that Red Sox Nation -- and I thought this from the very beginning -- was going to be more difficult than getting him away from the Red Sox team. That was the biggest hurdle.

''He gave me some honest answers. All things being equal, he would stay there. I knew we had to pay a separation."

So what was the premium for separation?

Through reading the papers and doing his homework, Cashman said, ''I was estimating they were probably at $11.5 million for four years." Thus, if the Yankees were to offer $12 million a year for four seasons, Cashman felt ''we were going to lose him, because he was going to stay where he was comfortable." So, Cashman went to $13 million per year.

''I wasn't going to go higher," he said.

Cashman probably over-estimated the Red Sox offer, but I bet if Boras had gotten the Red Sox in a back and forth with the Yankees, they would have gone that high. Cashman thwarted that as well:

''I felt we had to . . . make him make a decision now," Cashman said. ''Over time, he was just going to wind up staying [in Boston], I thought, because they would maybe increase their offer."

The Yankee GM called Boras Tuesday and said, ''If it doesn't work out, we're pulling out and we'll announce [we're out of the running for Damon]."

And that, of course, would put the Red Sox in the drivers seat with Boras. Scott knows a good deal when he sees it, and Damon's a member of the Yankees.

The Kansas City Royals picked up another free agent from the other side of Missouri as they showed Reggie Sanders the money.

“They had a game plan,” Sanders said. “Kansas City wined and dined me at the beginning. We sat down for a good three hours talking about where they’re going and what they’re trying to do. I needed to be the last piece of the puzzle. If I sign early, I’m left out to dry, no matter how much money I’m making. Now I see they got (Mark Grudzielanek), they got all these guys.”

Indeed, the Royals have spent generously in an effort to restock a team that lost 106 games last season. Emboldened by owner David Glass earmarking at least $22 million to upgrade the team, the Royals have added Sanders, Grudzielanek at second base, starting pitchers Scott Elarton and Mark Redman, first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, reliever Elmer Dessens and catcher Paul Bako for $21.75 million.

Sanders was on his way to the best season of his career last year with St. Louis before a broken bone in his leg sidelined him for almost two months. In 93 games, he batted .271 with 21 home runs, 54 RBIs and 14 stolen bases.

The game plan, as far as I can see is to put a better on team on the field this year with aging free agents and hope that in a couple of seasons the farm system produces. The Royals didn't turn themselves into a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they hope they won't be the embarrassment of 2005.

The Minnesota Twins tap Rondell White to replace Jacque Jones in the outfield:

The Minnesota Twins agreed Thursday to a contract with Rondell White that guarantees the designated hitter $3.25 million for one year and could be worth up to $8.5 million over two seasons if he plays regularly.

Playing regularly is the tough part. If Rondell can stay healthy, he'll hit better than Jones. But he's only played 130 games or more four times in a 13 season career. The Twins are not risking a lot of money here, however.

Bernie Williams agreed to a $1.5 million dollar contract with the Yankees. I think this is good for Bernine and the team. It doesn't make the team better, but so many people complain about player and team loyalty, it's good to see a pillar of the franchise get a chance to finish his career with the only team he's known.

Maybe the Red Sox can trade for Bubba Crosby.

Was Watching rounds up Red Sox Nation thoughts on the Yankees signing Johnny Damon.

Chad Finn gives five reasons he's glad and sad to see Johnny Damon go.

Some are sad.
And some are glad.
And some are very, very bad.
Why are they sad and glad and bad?
I do not know.
Go ask your dad.

Boston fans are not happy with Damon moving to New York:

It was an ugly start to the day for Laura Cipriano. She awoke at 6 a.m. Wednesday to a call from a New York Yankees-loving friend breaking the news that Johnny Damon had defected to New York.

"She was taunting me," said Cipriano, 30, of South Boston. "She was laughing. She was saying, 'Your favorite Red Sox player is leaving.'"

Both my wife and a colleague at work had the same reaction to the news, "That Bastard!"

What's not clear to me is what kind of premium the Yankees paid to lure Damon from Boston. The last reported offer from the Red Sox was for $40 million for four years. I assume that if the difference between the Yankees offer and the Red Sox offer was relatively small, then Damon would stay in Boston. So my question is, how high were the Red Sox willing to go? If it was only $40 million, then that's a pretty big markup the Yankees are paying to get Johnny to move cities. I'm guessing the Red Sox would go to $48 million. Of course, that means $1 million a year was all it took to sway Damon's loyalty.

The St. Louis Cardinals are ready to sign Sir Sidney Ponson to a one-year deal.

The one-year contract represents minimal financial risk but a significant leap of faith by a Cardinals organization acutely sensitive to controversy. Ponson was arrested twice last year for DWI and submitted to a 30-day treatment program for alcoholism after his release by the Orioles. He also spent 11 days in an Aruban jail following an incident in which he punched a judge on a beach.

Maybe Dave Duncan can work a miracle. Or maybe the incentives will work. Losing $10 million a year might be enough of a wakeup call for Ponson.

Johnny Damon will shed the cave man/Jesus look after agreeing to a four year contract with the Yankees for $13 million a year.

So how did it happen so quickly?

Despite Boras' rhetoric, there was never a market for Damon at seven years, and apparently he decided to get serious about making a deal this week. The only other teams to show interest besides the Yankees and Red Sox were the Orioles and Dodgers; Damon wasn't interested in playing for the Orioles, and when the Dodgers signed Kenny Lofton yesterday, it left the Sox and Yanks.

According to sources, Boras told the Yankees on Monday that he was ready to talk about a four-year deal. The Yankees were careful not to make an offer that Boras could take back to the Red Sox. They talked "parameters," meaning they said, "We're prepared to offer $52 million if you're ready to sign."

Indications are that Boras then let the Red Sox know the kind of money it would take to keep Damon, and they told him they weren't willing to go anywhere near $50 million.

Basically, Damon received the same money as Matsui. Over the last three years, Matsui posted 71 wins shares, Damon 69. They're the same seasonal age. This means the Yankees will carry six players who produced at least 25 win shares last year. The offense will be potent, to say the least.

The Yankees, however, don't make themselves any younger. And with Matsui, Damon, Jeter, A-Rod and Giambi under long term contracts, we won't see that happening soon.

Overall, however, this is a positive for the Yankees, if for no other reason than the Red Sox need to find a new center fielder, in addition to trying to trade Manny.

Damon’s departure leaves the Red Sox with a glaring hole in their leadoff spot, a vacancy of more concern than center field. They have already inquired about Cleveland’s Coco Crisp, San Diego’s Dave Roberts and Seattle’s Jeremy Reed this offseason. Count on those talks to intensify.

This signing also gives the Red Sox more of a reason to try to keep Manny Ramirez in the fold:

In addition to continuing to pursue a trade of Ramirez, Red Sox co-general manager Ben Cherington said on a conference call yesterday that “we also continue to talk to Manny and his representatives and continue to work on flushing out issues related to Ramirez’ desire to be traded. “We’re trying to appease some of his concerns,” Cherington went on. “At this point, we just want to listen. We’re not going to get into the reasons why he wants out.”

Jacque Jones signed with the Cubs today. The Cub Reporter sums up his feelings consicely:

And with that I’m off to bed to dream of just how I’ll celebrate in September 2008 when this deal expires.

In six years, Jones had one outstanding season, 2002. Then again, the Cubs aren't paying through the nose at a little of $5 million a year. Maybe they wanted Corey Patterson with consistency.

The Yankees signed Octavio Dotel to a one-year deal for $2 million. This reminds me of the Jon Leiber signing. It might help them down the road if Dotel comes back healthy, and it's not costing them too much money.

It looks like Kenny Lofton will sign with the Dodgers, according to this report in the Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks were attempting to sign the veteran outfielder. This means that Chris Young, the prospect the Diamondbacks obtained from the White Sox has a better chance of making the team in the spring.

Tracy Ringolsby discusses the future of Byung-Hyun Kim:

Today is the deadline for free agents who were offered arbitration, such as right-handed pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim, to accept or decline. Kim agreed to decline before the Rockies made the offer. A waste of time? Not at all. By the Rockies making the offer that Kim declined, the two sides can continue to try to work out a deal until Jan. 8. If the Rockies had not offered arbitration, the negotiations would have ended Dec. 7.

The Rockies would like to bring back Kim, but it's going to be for about one-fifth of the $6 million he earned last year, and Kim will have to reclaim his spot in the rotation. The Rockies see Kim adding depth to their rotation, and what makes him especially attractive is his age - he turns 27 on Jan. 19. Before finalizing the deal, though, the Rockies want a sit-down with Kim in which they can make sure he understands his role.

Kim's unusual delivery seems to work well in Colorado. The Rockies are correct in wanting him to continue in the rotation.

The Boston Herald is reporting that Nomar Garciaparra is going to sign with the Dodgers.

Last night, the former Red Sox shortstop agreed in principle to a one-year deal with the Dodgers worth $6 million in base salary. The 32-year-old will play first base.

Looks like someone will get a sweet deal on Hee-Seop Choi. I wonder who might be interested?

Garciaparra’s decision to play in Los Angeles, where he has a home and will be reunited with former Red Sox manager Grady Little and third baseman Bill Mueller, is a blow to the Yankees. New York believed he was a good fit to its lineup since the Yankees would have played him at first base and moved Jason Giambi to DH.

Choi's a lefty and he's patient at the plate. He's also a lot cheaper than Nomar. If the Yankees let him play everyday and encourage his selectivity at the plate, maybe New York can absorb the blow.

The Mariners are on the verge of signing Jarrod Washburn to a four year contract, worth about $9 million a year. There's a good FYI at the bottom of the article showing how Washburn declined the last four years. While he posted a very good ERA in 2005, it's mostly because the opposition hit very poorly against him with runners in scoring position.

The Mariners are also trying to acquire Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo from the Red Sox for Jeremy Reed. There's also a story that the Red Sox may trade one of those pitchers for Coco Crisp. Either Arroyo or Clement seems to much to give up for either outfielder, so I wonder if Boston is making these inquiries to put pressure on Damon. When a club is not desperate to sign a player, they should be able to get a better deal.

The Royals picked up three veterans today, signing Mark Grudzielank, Doug Mientkiewcz and Scott Elarton (okay, Scott's name isn't tough to spell). I like this spin on signing:

The signings, while reflecting the Royals' increased payroll, do not deviate from the club's commitment to its young core. The short terms of each deal will give the team time to develop its young players while striving for a more competitive product. Also, none of the contracts will cost the Royals a draft pick.

The Royals are just finding warm bodies to fill in positions until they can find people who can actually contribute. Mark's never been a great OBA guy, and Doug hasn't been for two years. Neither has much pop. Has Elarton ever been a good pitcher? In my opinion, the Royals would be better off with $300,000 players from triple A and saving their money until there are players on the market that will actually help their team get better.

The Cardinals reacquired Bradon Looper today, returning him to his original team:

Braden Looper and the Cardinals agreed Thursday to a $13.5 million, three-year contract, giving St. Louis another newcomer in the bullpen.

Looper had 28 saves in 36 chances with a 3.94 ERA for the New York Mets last season, but will be a setup man for closer Jason Isringhausen with the Cardinals. The 31-year-old right-hander fills a slot held the past two seasons by Julian Tavarez, who became a free agent.

To me, Looper works better as a setup man. He doesn't strike out tons of batters, while his walks are very low.

St. Louis now replaced the missing pieces of their bullpen, and now can concentrate on filling in their missing positions.

John Levesque at SeattlePI.com is looking forward to Carl Everett joining the Mariners, but not for the reasons you might think:

But, clearly, the Mariners are intent on creating a more exciting clubhouse in 2006, and also on correcting the impression that the only baseball players who can grace their 40-man roster must be Eagle Scouts and on the fast track to sainthood.

Oh, happy day!

The signing of Everett to a one-year contract Wednesday gives the Mariners a little left-handed sock, something they've been pursuing fervently, if unsuccessfully, the past two years. It also gives them something to take our minds off how awful this team could be next season.

I especially like this bit:

Concerned Everett's reputation preceded him in Seattle, Mariners president Chuck Armstrong took the unusual step of writing a letter to season-ticket holders, saying: "We are aware of the issues that Carl had in the past, but are confident that he has dealt with them and has moved on. ... White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf personally assured me that Carl is a good man who can be a positive force for our club."

Of course, the guy who used to own the used car you just bought rarely mentions the oil leak and the rusted-out floorboards.

Bill Mueller signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers today, showing once again that money isn't always as important as location:

Mueller, 34, chose the Dodgers over what was believed to be a more lucrative offer from the Pittsburgh Pirates, and had considered a contract offer from the Chicago White Sox, but was not assured a starting position there.

Barring injury, he'll be an offensive improvement at third for the Dodgers.

Everytime I visit a newspaper covering a local major league team, there seems to be a story about that team having interest in Nomar Garciaparra. Here's the latest from the Houston Chronicle. It almost seems as if Nomar is being used by all these clubs as a bargaining chip. They don't really want him, but because Garciaparra is willing to move positions, they use the possibility of signing Nomar as a way to keep the price down on the player they actually want.

Want to play Bill Mueller less? Tell him Nomar's available. Rondell White in left? Maybe we'll try Nomar. Damon in center? Nomar can play there, too. Second base, first base, next thing you know the Marlins will be looking at him as a catcher! Even if he doesn't sign a contract for next season, MLB teams should compensate Mr. Hamm for all his help this winter.

Matt Morris is close to signing a deal with the Giants.

Agent Barry Axelrod would not divulge financial terms, but Morris is expected to get a guarantee of three years worth approximately $27 million.

"We still have some details to square away, but our focus is on the Giants," Axelrod said. "We've basically said, assuming we get the last details worked out with the Giants, that's where he wants to go."

Axelrod termed those details "endgame-type issues" that should not derail an agreement with San Francisco, which beat the Rangers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mariners and Reds in bidding for the 31-year-old right-hander.

Morris did not allow a home run in his four starts at SBC Park. Morris would have been better off going for free agency after the 2003 season. Here's what his career looked like at that point. Since then, his strikeouts have fallen off, but he's maintained his excellent K/BB ratio. He's become more of a control pitcher. Unfortunately, that's led to his becoming more hittable, as his home runs per 9 nearly doubled. SBC Park has the same home run index as St. Louis, so I don't expect that to change.

I do worry that the Giants (or the people covering the Giants) are overly impressed with Morris' won-loss record:

On the other hand, Morris has not had a losing season and he was the winning pitcher in the Cardinals' Division Series clincher over San Diego in October.

You can have a winning record with a high ERA if your team scores lots of runs. Since San Francisco was 15th in the NL in runs scored during 2005, that might be a problem.

Is this all Bill Mueller is worth?

In their effort to land free-agent third baseman Bill Mueller, the Pirates have increased their offer to a three-year deal believed to be worth over $4 million a year. The club had originally offered Mueller a two-year contract.

Mueller, 34, is also speaking with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, and is reportedly leaning toward signing with a West Coast team.

It seems to me a player with a good OBA that plays an important defensive position well should be worth more money. I guess his injury history is holding down Bill price.

Via Deadspin Eric McErlain speculates on the fun that might happen if Roger Clemens signs with the Mets.

U.S.S. Mariner notices that Carl Everett is soul searching over whether to sign with Seattle:

Hey! Carl!

It’s horrible here. We’re all heathen gay paleontologists. Millions of us. Stay away.

The Yankees picked up ex-Boston pitcher Mike Myers yesterday, having waited to see if Boston offered him arbitration.

Yesterday, however, the Bombers finally made a little noise. They completed a trade to send Tony Womack to Cincinnati and, in a move designed to shore up their bullpen, the Bombers agreed to a two-year deal with lefthanded specialist Mike Myers believed to be for about $2.5 million. The Yanks did not make an official announcement, but they had an eye on Myers for weeks and were waiting to see if the Red Sox offered him arbitration; when Boston did not, it allowed the Yanks to move in and add the veteran without forfeiting a draft pick to their division rivals.

Myers will be 37 in 2006, but he hasn't pitched a lot, averaging just 45 innings over 10 full MLB seasons.

Did you know that Myers is the only Colorado Rockies pitcher to post an ERA under 3.00 in at least 85 innings pitched? That alone should continue to make him worth a risk every few years. :-)

It looks like the Yankees and Bernie Williams struck a deal to keep the centerfielder in New York one more year:

Faced last night with a midnight deadline to reach agreement on a new contract, offer arbitration or lose negotiating rights with the veteran center fielder until May, the Yankees received a handshake deal from Williams' agent, Scott Boras, which buys them more time to work out a new pact and effectively ensures Williams will return to the Bronx.

As part of the deal, the Bombers will offer arbitration to Williams - who made about $12.3 million last season - but have Boras' word that he will decline, meaning the Yanks have until Jan. 8 to get Williams signed as a reserve outfielder/DH. The Bombers are looking to give Williams a one-year deal for around $1.5 million-$2 million with incentives that could push the value up to around $3 million.

It's nice to see this working out for both the team and the player. Williams gets to play his whole career with one team, and the Yankees get to keep a fan favorite on the team. I suspect without the daily wear and tear, Williams can still be a valuable offensive player as a DH and pinch hitter.

Although it's not definite, word out of Detroit is that the Tigers are going to sign Kenny Rogers.

No longer wanted in Texas, All-Star pitcher Kenny Rogers agreed to a $16 million, two-year contract Thursday with the Tigers that will give Detroit a veteran left-hander it hopes can provide leadership to a young rotation.

It's not a lot of money given what pitchers are commanding these days, but when has Rogers been good for a long stretch? In 17 years he's had 6 or 7 outstanding seasons, two of those as a reliever. And given his antics of 2005, I'm not sure he's the best person to provide leadership. The Tigers are more in need of someone who can provide a low ERA. There's about a 1 in 3 chance that Rogers will do that.

It looks like the Orioles are close to signing Ramon Hernandez to catch. This makes Javy Lopez available for a trade, but I hope the Orioles can do better than this:

With Hernandez close to being on board, the Orioles made several calls yesterday to gauge interest in their current everyday catcher Javy Lopez, according to two industry sources. One of the teams they talked to was the Los Angeles Angels and a deal that included Angels veteran outfielder Steve Finley was at least discussed, according to a source.

The Houston Astros did not offer Roger Clemens arbitration today, making it impossible for Clemens to start the season with Houston in 2006.

By refusing to offer Clemens, 43, arbitration by today's 11 p.m. deadline, the Astros accept that their negotiating window with him will be closed until May 1. By then, the 341-game winner will likely be playing elsewhere if he opts against retirement.

Clemens earned $18,000,022 this year, a record for a one-year contract. If the Astros had offered arbitration and he had accepted and taken them to a hearing, he would have earned no less than $15.4 million next season but more likely something in the $20 million range. By offering arbitration, the Astros would have at least extended the negotiating window with Clemens until Jan. 8.

It's an interesting decision. Clemens is still a very good pitcher, although his durability has to be in question. The Astros probably decided that given Roger's likelihood of injury, $15 to $20 million dollars just wasn't worth it. We'll now wait to see if Clemens decides to play somewhere else. If he should retire, he'll certainly be going out on one of the great high notes of all time.

ESPN is reporting that A.J Burnett agreed to join the Toronto Blue Jays for $11 million a year for five years. The yearly amount is not outrageous, but the length of the contract is pretty iffy.

The Blue Jays sign another pitcher with lots of strikeouts, okay walks and who is very good at keeping the ball in the park. Of course, he's only been able to pitch 200 innings twice in his seven year career. The Blue Jays appear to be playing Moneyball with real money.

Since they now have A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan, can the following be far behind?

• C.J. Nitkowski as the mop up guy.
• D.J. Tanner as the new luxury seats beer girl.
• E.J. Dionne as the cranky sports writer.
• JJ Evans as the holler guy (Dyn-o-mite!) and practical jokester.
• MJ Watson as the girlfriend.
• O.J. Simpson as himself.
• P.J. O'Rourke as the funny sports writer.
• R.J. Reynolds as the sponsor.
• TJ Hooker as the new security chief.

It looks like timing is the key ingredient in landing A.J. Burnett. He'd like to play for the Cardinals:

Along with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, the Cardinals general manager continued to wait Saturday for free-agent pitcher A.J. Burnett to decide on the club's four- year offer worth roughly $40 million. If Burnett accepts the Cardinals' offer - something sources say he is prepared to do should the club guarantee a fifth season - then the meetings' cornerstone will be laid.

Toronto is willing to give Burnett the fifth year, and Burnett's agent appears to be using that as leverage to get more from St. Louis:

Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who is expected to be a major player in trade discussions the next four days, arrived here around noon and said the Burnett talks could drag through until mid-week. Braunecker didn't dismiss that suggestion, but added: "It might go that long, or somebody can phone us up (today) and the deal will be done."

That scenario playing out would most likely suggest the Cards hold the upper hand, since their four-year offer in the $40 million (all figures U.S.) range is reportedly for a season less than Toronto's bid — making it the Cardinals' phone call to make.

St. Louis isn't in the habit of doling out five-year deals, but Burnett is said by sources to be leaning toward the Cards — meaning that even an easily vested option for a fifth year could be enough to get him to St. Louis.

Does Toronto have all it's chips on the table? Do they have anything left to counter if the Cardinals go for five years? It would seem not.

The Cleveland Indians filled one of their needs, signing Paul Byrd to a two year contract for $14.25 million.

Update: Byrd's strength is that he doesn't walk batters, just 28 in 204 1/3 innings in 2005. In his career, he's only had two poor seasons walk wise. In 1999 and 2000, he combined for 105 walks in 282 2/3 innings. That's more than 1/3 of his career walks in two seasons. In his last four seasons he's walked 111 in 650 1/3 innings.

He doesn't strike out batters however. Luckily, Cleveland, like Anaheim, will put a great defense behind Paul. It's a good fit, and given the way salaries are going, a good value for the Tribe.

Art Martone notices that Nomar Garciaparra is becoming Jody Reed:

Jody Reed turning down a three-year, $7.8-million contract offer from the Dodgers after the 1993 season is regarded in baseball circles as the ultimate blunder in player negotiations. Reed bounced around the majors for four seasons after leaving Los Angeles and earned a grand total of $2.875 million over the rest of his career -- just about $5 million less than he would have made had he stayed in Los Angeles. (Red Sox fans should delight in Reed's misstep. To replace him, the Dodgers traded for Montreal's Delino DeShields. The player they traded? Pedro Martinez, whom the poverty-stricken Expos couldn't afford to keep when he reached superstar status and thus wound up in Boston.)

The question, though, is whether or not Garciaparra committed a similar gaffe (or two) in his dealings with the Red Sox.

Martone points out that Nomar gave up two years of free agency when he signed a long term deal early in his career. I don't see that as much of a blunder. That deal certainly gave Garciaparra a lifetime of security. The big blunder was turning down the extension:

The other mistake was his decision not to accept the four-year, $60-million offer the Red Sox made after the 2003 season. The market had shifted downward by that time, and the $200-million contracts signed by players like Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez were no longer available. Garciaparra, though, wanted A-Rod/Jeter money. He made the call to play out his contract and become a free agent.

And thus began the downward spiral: The foot injury. The trade. The ripped groin. And now he's out in the street, waiting to see who's interested.

Rafael Furcal trades the congested freeways of Atlanta for the congested freeways of Los Angels. Reports are the he's about to sign a three year deal with the Dodgers for $40 million.

That's more money per year than Renteria or Cabrera received last season, and frankly Furcal is a better player. He'll be 28 next year, still in his prime. Over the last four years, Furcal's hit the 20 win share mark each time, twice hitting 25 or more. Neither Edgar nor Orlando was that consistent over the previous four years coming into their free agency.

I do hope, however, the Dodgers are buying Furcal for his defense. His offensive numbers are somewhat inflated by Turner Field. Here he is home and road for his career. There's a forty point fall off in batting average and a 30 point fall off in OBA. He's really hit poorly at Dodger Stadium, although it's a very small sample size.

No one put up more fielding win shares than Furcal among NL shortstops last year. If the idea is to improve the infield defense by moving Izturis to second or third (when he recovers from his injury), this was a very good move, and I don't believe the Dodgers have overpayed, given what was spent on shortstops last season.

Jon Weisman's take:

Is this Furcal acquisition like getting the Delino DeShields of daydreams without trading a Pedro Martinez for him?

Any deal where you don't give up a Pedro like player is a good deal.

The Cleveland Indians are running into problems trying to spend the extra money in their budget:

Before the bidding on free agents began, Shapiro thought that his money would go a little further. He said his budget for the 25-man roster will be a little more than $55 million, which is at least $13 million more than in 2004.

That means that he probably has about $21 million to spend on free agents or new players obtained in trades. A princely sum? Had he been the winner in the Giles and Ryan sweepstakes, Shapiro’s shopping spree would be just about over.

The same thing happened last year, when Cleveland was not able to land the players they wanted due to prices going up. Maybe they can use all that extra money to take Manny Ramirez off Boston's hands.

Alex Bleth crosses over into the main stream media with a guest column on SI.com. He discusses landmarks in free agency.

The Pirates are interested in acquiring Nomar Garciaparra to play third base:

Making a pitch for big-name free agents hasn't been an option for Littlefield in the past, but Garciaparra -- though a recognized name amongst baseball fans -- likely wouldn't command top dollar for his services after playing in just 143 games over the past two seasons because of various injuries.

And the Pirates probably wouldn't have to commit to a long-term deal to sign Garciaparra.

His willingness to switch positions could be taken as a sign he's seeking a short-term contract with a club to prove his worth over a couple of seasons before once again testing the free-agent market.

The fact that there are also a few third basemen on the market also would keep the price down. It seems like a perfect situation for the Pirates. If Nomar does well, the team benefits and Garciappara gets to try for another big payday. If Nomar ends up injured again, it was a gamble that didn't cost too much money. We'll see if anything happens.

Another "small market" team looking at free agents and increasing payroll. The financial health of the game looks better all the time.

As the reliever wheel continues to turn, Tom Gordon moves south from New York to Philadelphia. Gordon nets a 3-year, $18 million dollar contract from the Phillies to return to the closer role.

The Phillies had been reluctant to offer Gordon a three-year contract, but after the deals Wagner and Toronto's B.J. Ryan received this week, the asking price for closers immediately went up.

The Phillies apparently had targeted Gordon as Plan B before Wagner signed with the Mets. The team also had expressed interest in free-agent relievers Trevor Hoffman and Kyle Farnsworth. In addition, the Phils had an interest in Tampa Bay Devil Rays closer Danys Baez, whom they had pursued in the past.

I'm not crazy about this signing. Three years is a long time for a 38 year-old player. The one thing that made Yankees fans cringe last year was Gordon's inability to get out of tight situations. With men in scoring position and two outs last year, Gordon's averages (BA/OBA/SLUG) allowed were .290/.353/.516. vs. .203/.272/.330 overall. It's why he blew seven saves in the setup role.

Of course, as the closer, he won't be coming into the tough situations. He'll be starting the 9th with the bases empty. It strange that the role of closer can actually be filled by a pitcher who can't get the tough out.

It looks like Kyle Farnsworth is headed to the Yankees.

The Bombers were continuing serious negotiations with fireballer Kyle Farnsworth yesterday and, according to sources, are expected to sign him to a three-year contract for approximately $17 million as soon as today.

It seems to me that Kyle's agent might have gotten his client a lot more money if he tried to pass him off as a closer instead of a setup man, but it's possible Farnsworth is more comfortable in the 8th inning. Kyle's main problem is that he gives up a lot of home runs. He's allowed 80 in his career in 548 2/3 innings. That's 29 every 200 innings which I'd consider high for a starter. He also walks over 4 batters per 9.

Balanced against that is a very good strikeout pitcher, 9.1 per 9. If the Yankees do lose Tom Gordon, Farnsworth will be an able replacement.

The San Diego Padres weren't out of the Brian Giles derby after all. Last night they agreed to sign him to at least three years for $9 million a year. With buyouts and options the contract will be worth at least $30 million and as high as $36 million.

Giles was the Padres offense in 2004. Without Brian in the lineup, San Diego would have lots of trouble competing in the weak NL West. As with Konerko, Giles accepted less money to stay with the home town team.

Giles may be one of the best bargains of his generation. Consider that since 1999, Giles garnered 194 Win Shares while earning $45 million. Over the same amount of time, Manny Ramirez totaled 202 win shares, but was paid $101 million. The Padres are lucky Brian likes to play close to home.

Paul Konerko decided to stay in Chicago today, taking less money from the White Sox than was offered by the Orioles. He'll get $12 million a year for five years, and form an intimidating power duo with likely DH Jim Thome. The contract seems like a pretty fair price for Paul. Once again, as we've seen so often in the free agent era, location mattered more than a few million dollars.

Paul Konerko turned down an offer from the Orioles of 5 years, $65 million dollars. That's pretty good money for a first baseman with a .349 career OBA and a .488 career slugging percentage. Just to show you how much salaries have risen, the article points out the following:

The Orioles' initial offer to Konerko - made earlier this month - was four years for $50 million, before they countered with the five-year deal for $65 million yesterday. Coincidentally, those are the exact terms of Albert Belle's contract when he signed with the Orioles before the 1999 season.

At the time, Albert had a career .368 OBA and a .571 slugging percentage.

However, with Konerko, it looks like free agency is more about location than money. Chicago or Anaheim is where he wants to be. We'll see if either meets the Orioles level of generosity.

Phillies Nation likes Pat Gillick's signing of Abraham Nunez.

What do the Oakland Athletics see in Esteban Loaiza? I understand the Giants' need to sign over the hill players, but he Oakland Athletics are supposed to be smarter than that. A lot of Loaiza's success last year came from his excellent work at RFK Stadium. If you compare his home and road numbers from 2005, it's pretty clear that Esteban was pitching in a home park with a lousy hitting background. I don't think that will be true in Oakland.

Loaiza does have very good control, walking just 2.6 batters per 9 over his career. This, however, has not translated into a good ERA (4.60 career). Athletics Nation likes the deal because it gives Beane a strong position to deal going into the winter meetings. He has plenty of pitching and teams need pitching. I'm not sure we can really evaluate this move until we see what else happens. On the face of it, I'd bet Loaiza does worse with the A's than he did with the Nationals.

The people who should be happiest with this deal are the 4th and 5th starters of the world. They're now worth $7 million a year.

Richard Griffin offers advice to people upset by the size of the contract tendered to B.J. Ryan:

It should be noted, in support of the Jays and any other sports franchise with uber-critical, hyperventilating fans, that as long as the front office is not publicly whining about having enough money, then size of contract should not be an issue.

Dudes, relax. It's not your cash. The one gauge should be results. Shut up and appreciate that the Jays, with their much-maligned, albeit personally defensive GM have actually started to spend some of that extra $60 million promised by the great Canadian Ted Rogers.

Giles and Burnett are next up for Ricciardi. J.P. is actually using the Yankees model of free agency; identify the best player(s) available and sign them. If the Jays manage to land the Fish and the Friar, they'll bring home the best reliever, starter and hitter available this off season.

Update: David Gassko at the Hardball Times crunches the numbers, and it appears the Blue Jays got a bargain.

Correction: Fixed the spelling of Gassko.

Via Phillies Nation, Billy Wagner signs with the Mets. It's a four year contract with an option for a 5th, and more money per year than Ryan and Rivera. With Wagner, Delgado, Pedro, Beltran, Wright and Floyd, the Mets appear to be going for the gold in 2006.

It's a good year to be a free agent closer.

Correction: I had Ryan instead of Wagner at one point in this post.

The Blue Jays are holding a news conference this afternoon, likely to announce the completion of the B.J. Ryan deal.

I'm wondering if Brian Giles agent Joe Bick made a mistake here:

But Giles' agent, Joe Bick, said yesterday he had told the Padres that Giles would be "moving on" after San Diego rejected a recent contract counter-proposal. Asked if the Padres no longer were an avenue for Giles, Bick said, "Correct.

"Certainly, we were disappointed that they weren't interested in getting a deal done," Bick added. "Now we're in the process of gathering information, which we'll do in the next few days and hopefully be in a position to make a decision soon."

Bick took a potential bidder out of the mix. One thing that would drive the price of Giles for the Yankees was competition from other clubs. If they no longer need to worry about San Diego, that would mean the Yankees could come back with less money, not more, for Brian.

At this point, Giles doesn't fit with the Yankees that well. The best way to use him would be in a rotating DH/outfield/first base capacity, giving Matsui, Sheffield and Giambi a chance to rest from fielding every day.

It seems to me, Brian would be a better fit for the Cardinals, who are looking to replace Larry Walker.

Ken Rosenthal doesn't like the deal, although I'm not sure this is a good reason:

Let's not forget the potential effect on Ryan, either. He would need to contend not only with the pressure of closing — pressure that cracks many pitchers — but also the pressure of performing under a highly scrutinized contract.

I assume they're giving him the money because the Blue Jays believe he can handle the pressure. I wonder if Ryan came up as closer material on the Orioles psychological tests? Maybe the Blue Jays know about those, too.

Toronto does have the rest of baseball upset:

Several major-league executives were in disbelief when they heard the reported terms. Their shock will turn to anger if the deal is completed and they are forced to bid for free agents in a grossly inflated market. Major League Baseball officials would be equally outraged, knowing their pleas for fiscal responsibility are again being ignored.

"It's so shocking, it's almost laughable," one executive said of the Ryan deal.

The problem here is that fiscal responsibility is at odds with winning. The Blue Jays have money; they don't need to worry about the luxury tax. They want to compete in the AL East, so they need to spend money to do that. Surprise! They're bidding up free agents! That's the way the system works. They wanted the best available, and they gave the money to the younger guy with more strikeouts.

The comparison to Rivera is a little dubious as well. Rivera got a little under $10 million for four years. Ryan will get a little over $9 million for five years. With the exception of the last few years, that's always the way the free agent market worked. It's a sign that the game is healthy. Teams have money to spend, and they're spending it to win.

It looks like the Toronto Blue Jays are very close to a deal to sign B.J. Ryan to a very rich contract:

Several reports last night had the Jays and Ryan agreeing in principle to a stunning five-year, $47 million (all figures U.S.) deal. The agreement has yet to be signed, but would likely be contingent upon the pitcher passing a routine physical.

Landing a rising star like Ryan would instantly give the Jays one of the top bullpens in baseball. Ryan would take over the closer role from Miguel Batista, who appears likely to be dealt before next season begins.

As you can see here, over the last two seasons Ryan ranks third in K per 9 among the elite closers. He keeps the ball in the park, but he's no Billy Wagner when it comes to walks.

I'm a little surprised the Blue Jays would spend this much money on a closer. And it appears they're not done:

Ricciardi has also been after free-agent starter A.J. Burnett of Florida Marlins and outfielder Brian Giles of San Diego. The deal with Ryan would still leave the Jays — who have $25 million to $30 million in extra payroll to spend — enough cash to land both those players, provided they can move other players in trades.

One of those players might by Miguel Batista, although Gibbons would like to have Miguel in the setup role, or even back in the rotation.

The Jays are going after the Red Sox and the Yankees. With the Yankees not doing anything so far this off season, the Jays have a chance to make a move on the division.

Update: I wanted to add that the person who may benefit the most from this deal is Billy Wagner. He can argue his experience as a closer makes him more reliable than Ryan, and demand more money.

The Cubs completed their bullpen yesterday with the signing of Bobby Howry. Bleed Cubbie Blue covers the story.

With the pitching set, the Cubs are set to go into the winter meetings looking for outfielders who can get on base.

It looks like Billy Wagner is going to get Mariano Rivera money:

After two days of meetings with the pitcher and his wife, the New York Mets offered free-agent closer Billy Wagner a three-year contract worth just more than $30 million, a deal containing an option for 2009 that could increase the package to $40 million.

According to Baseball Reference, Rivera's averaged $10.1 million over the last five years. Wagner's pay hasn't been shabby either, pulling in $8.25 million on average over the last four years.

Since Wagner's first full season in 1996, the two rank 1-2 in ERA for pitcher's with 600 IP over that time. You can also see Rivera's strength in home runs allowed makes up for Wagner's strength in strikeouts.

Wagner is two years younger than Mariano. If you believe a closer is worth that kind of money, then I'd say the Mets are making Billy a fair offer. And for those who thought the Cubs were spending too much money on Scott Eyre, do you really think Wagner is worth three times the money?

Scott Boras employs a very creative statistician:

In the blue free-agent binder that Boras presents to teams interested in Damon, there are 10 sections filled with hundreds of numbers to emphasize why Damon is desirable. If there is a statistic available that details Damon's value, Boras's staff has probably unveiled it.

Boras made a copy of his binder available to The New York Times. In it are sections titled "Best Leadoff Man in Baseball"; "Most Durable Active Player in the Major Leagues/Deserving of a 7-Plus-Year Contract"; and "Better Than Future Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson." Statistics follow each heading.

Just in case that last line seemed far fetched to you, too, their averages through seasonal age 31 (BA/OBA/Slug):

• Henderson: .293/.403/.441
• Damon: .290/.353/.431

And just in case that's not enough to convince you, remember the MLB context was in Rickey's favor as well. From 1979 to 1990, the MLB averages were .259/.324/.389. In Damon's career, starting in 1995, the MLB averages are .266/.336/.424. If Boras made such a statement to me, I'd laugh him out of my office.

The AP is reporting that the Kenji Jojima deal is done.

Catcher Kenji Jojima and the Seattle Mariners agreed Monday to a $16.5 million, three-year contract.

I'm sure there will be more details when the signing is officially announced.

Update: ESPN also confirms the deal.

Via Lookout Landing, the Seattle Times is reporting Kenji Johjima is going to be a Mariner. This deal isn't final yet so stay tuned.

Johjima's team in Japan, Fukuoka Soft-Bank Hawks, reportedly had offered him a one-year deal of $10 million to stay.

He will make his decision public on Tuesday in Japan. At Fukuoka's breakup meeting before the offseason, a tradition for Japanese teams, Johjima will tell Hawks' manager Sadahura Oh that he will play in this country.

He would join J.J. Trujillo as the only players with three Js in their baseball names.

Kenji Jojima cut short his visit to the US without seeing the NY Mets. Speculation is that he's going home to decide if he should take a big offer from his current Japanese team or sign with the Mariners.

The Mets told New York reporters that he returned to Japan because of a personal circumstance, and may reschedule his visit at a later date.

One National League general manager, however, speculated that the aborted trip "is a strong indicator" that he has either decided to become a Mariner, or that the Mets have neared an agreement with another free agent catcher, either Bengie Molina of the Angels or Ramon Hernandez of the Padres.

The Chicago Cubs signed Scott Eyre to a three year deal. The lefty will earn $11 million over the term of the contract, plus incentives.

Eyre is a work horse. Over the last four seasons, only Ray King appeared in more games. My experience is that pitchers that make a lot of appearances over a short number of seasons tend to burn out. The classic example is Rob Murphy. He led the majors in appearances from 1987 to 1989 and pitched very well. In 1990, he flamed out.

There's a big difference between the way Murphy was used, and the way Eyre is used. Murphy pitched many more innings than appearances. Eyre has fewer innings than games over his stretch of work. In fact, Eyre pitched the best of his career in 2005.

On the other hand, 2005 stands out as a fluke season for Eyre. Still, if he's effective as a LOOGY, the Cubs are not paying an outrageous amount of money for his services.

On another note, Eyre's 2005 season provides a great example of how much luck can effect a small sample size. Check out his home/away split. I just don't see why his ERA should be so much better on the road.

Correction: He's better, not worse on the road.

The opening bid on A.J. Burnett is a pretty good one. The Blue Jays are offering five years at $10 million a year. Given what okay starters were getting last season when there were a number of pitchers in the market, I expect both the salary number and the length of contract to go higher.

Kenji Johjima is looking for a job in the North American major leagues. He visited the Mariners, and the Mets and Padres are both interested in acquiring the Japanese catcher.

Here are his stats through 2004 (he had a good 2005 before breaking his leg). His numbers are good, but so were Kaz Matusi's. It seems if you are going to be successful here, you need eye-popping numbers like Hideki Matsui or Ichiro.

Kenji does have a good arm, throwing out 37.6% of base runners. That's more than enough to turn your opponents running game into a negative. If he is a defensive wizard behind the plate, he'll be valuable even if there is a large falloff in his offense.

The Yankees and Hideki Matsui reached a contract agreement tonight:

Matsui is to earn $13 million in each of the next four seasons, a baseball official familiar with the talks said on condition of anonymity because the team did not disclose the financial terms. Matsui was coming off a $21 million, three-year contract in which he earned an additional $1.5 million in performance bonuses.

It's a nice pay day for the Yankees left fielder. It took him a year to adjust to the North American major leagues, but he's posted 28 and 24 win shares the last two seasons. As a point of comparison, Vlad Guerrero posted 27 in each of the last two seasons, and I believe he's averaging $14 million a year over the life of his contract.

It's a good deal for both sides. Matsui's earned a great deal of respect in his three seasons and serves as a great example of how the game should be played. The Yankees lock up a player the fans love and the Japanese advertising that goes with him. Sure, Hideki's best years are probably behind him, but the contract is not outrageous and the term is short enough that Matsui shouldn't go into a steep decline. Now New York can concentrate on fixing center field.

This wasn't a big secret, but the Cubs basically gave Nomar his walking papers:

The Chicago Cubs have not exactly told Nomar Garciaparra to take a hike, but they have advised the veteran free agent to feel free to see if he can "find a better fit" elsewhere.

Maybe he can play center field for the Yankees. :-) Actually, he'd be a good fit in Houston, where Adam Everett is a very weak offensive shortstop. The Astros would need to trade offense for defense, but they can always bring in Everett late in the games. The Astros need to add some depth to the offense, and this might be an inexpensive way to reach that goal.

Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa are out of the Baltimore Orioles 2006 plans:

The Orioles made the inevitable official yesterday, saying they will not be bringing back outfielder Sammy Sosa or first baseman Rafael Palmeiro.

"At this point, we are heading in a different direction," club executive vice president Mike Flanagan said.

I'm not surprised about Palmeiro. He was there to get his 300th hit, and once that happened and the steroids story broke, the Orioles had little use for the aged first baseman.

Sosa is a much more interesting case. The Orioles thought they were getting a player chasing 600 home runs, which would make a nice marketing tool and would also help the club. But Sosa had his worst year since 1992, hitting just 14 home runs and leaving himself 12 short of 600. Is there a team that is willing to give Sosa the opportunity to hit 12 homers to become the fifth player to hit 600. Or, like his 1998 home run competitor, Mark McGwire, will injuries and diminished skills take him out of baseball before he can reach that magic number?

Chad Finn pulls out the crystal ball and makes his predictions on where free agents will land this winter. My favorite:

Ramon Hernandez, Padres: Mets. He's not nearly as good as his stats might suggest, which makes him a classic Omar Minaya acquisition.

This made me chuckle:

The New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals have already shown interest in Furcal and, according to Kinzer, the New York Yankees have also contacted him to find out if Furcal would consider playing center field.

So that would give the Yankees three shortstops, with the poorest defender of the three playing the position. Jeter is great at catching fly balls. He's the one who should move to center.

Was Watching is wondering about the status of Hideki Matsui. He doesn't appear to be a free agent in the traditional sense, since he's only been in the league three years. It also appears he would need to clear waivers before he can negotiate with other clubs. Does anyone know why Matsui seems to have special status with his contract up? Was it from language in his original contract with the Yankees, or does it have to do with rules governing players coming from a foreign major league?

Update: Alex Belth sends this link, which seems to clear things up a bit.

The bidding on free agents begins today, and the Royals are having a difficult time convincing people they want to spend money:

Baird declined to identify the club’s targets but insisted he is ready to make deals.

Today.

“I’ve met with a lot of agents and some players,” he said Thursday after a business session at the general managers’ meetings at a glitzy resort hotel near Palm Springs.

“They’re a little stunned that we’re spending money. Even though we keep saying it, I don’t know if they believe it. So it’s a matter of convincing them.”

It will also be a matter of convincing players that Kansas City is where they want to play. Not all free agents are in it for the money. Some want to play close to home; some want to win championships. The latter may have little interest in the Royals right now.

The Cubs signed Neifi Perez to a two year, $5 million contract today. It looks like the Cubs plan for the light hitting shortstop to be an insurance policy:

The Cubs are expected to make a run at Atlanta Braves free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal and give Ronny Cedeno a shot at regular time at shortstop or second after he batted .300 in 41 games. The Cubs also exercised an option on second baseman Todd Walker for next season.

"I think I showed them that if they put me in, I can play every day," said Perez, the Cubs' primary shortstop last season. "I can't worry about things that are out of my hands."

It's a perfectly sensible signing. Neifi's not a starter, but he's fine as a replacement if an injury comes up or just to spell a middle infielder.

Joe Posnanski is concerned that the Royals won't spend their $22 million wisely:

But it’s true. Baird and the Royals do have money to spend. And not only that, they want to spend the money. Royals owner David Glass apparently has been called cheap one time too many. He wants a $50 million payroll. And he wants results.

There are, as I see it, only two problems with the new spend-happy Royals.

1. This is a terrible year to have money to spend.

2. The Royals have not been good at spending money.

He also notes the Royals have competition out there:

There is another possibility, too. The Royals could make trades and take on some salary. This might be a better option, if they can find teams willing to deal. The only trouble is that, unlike previous years, it seems like there are a lot of teams out there with money to spend this off season. There are suddenly teams like Milwaukee and Toronto that feel they might be a couple of players away from being contenders.

So the Royals have money to spend, not a lot of talent available, and plenty of competition for that talent. It appears that the situation is ripe for the Royals to overspend on a free agent.

According to this article, the Royals are upping their budget for the 40 man roster and going after the big free agents:

The Royals are even willing to abandon some long-held guidelines in conducting their search, such as limiting free-agent deals to two years, aiming for clients of superagent Scott Boras and accepting the possibility of sacrificing draft picks as compensation.

Good. They should be putting the revenue sharing money into players rather than into their pockets.

Kevin Millar (being an "idiot") doesn't understand why the Red Sox don't want to keep an aging team together:

“We’d been very fortunate to have the same group of guys, basically, for three straight seasons. We’ve been the same, and that’s been awesome. Plus, we were the (first team in franchise history) to win 95-plus games for three straight seasons. . . . Why is it such a thing that when a team has that kind of success, there’s so much interest in making change? I’ve never understood that.

“Look at the Patriots,” Millar added. “The Patriots have been so good and won three Super Bowls because they’ve stayed the same. . . . I think we lost track of that a little bit. We start thinking about change so much, and I don’t think we needed to.”

I'm not that big a football fan, but it strikes me that the Partriots are very good at moving players every year, much like the Atlanta Braves. (Patriots fans, please comment!) When a team wins, the temptation is to hold on to the same players for the next year. Teams that don't win tend to address weaknesses more vigorously. That's one reason it's difficult to repeat; the winner freezes the roster and tends to decline, while the loser makes the team better. That the Red Sox are willing to remake the roster after three winning seasons shows wisdom on the part of management (at least, the management that's left).

Kevin Baxter of the Miami Herald pens a good article on the upcoming free agent season around ex-Marlin A.J. Burnett. It seems Pavano was wooing him to New York last March.

''He wants me to be a Yankee,'' Burnett said then. ``He said everybody has got a Bentley or Ferrari.''

The Mets paid a visit to Billy Wagner. I like that Omar Minaya visits the free agents he's very interested in signing. It gives the player a reason to push his agent in that direction.

Wagner gives his wish list for a new team:

It's going to come down to who's got the better team, what direction they want to go and who's closer to a championship."

A big monetary offer, of course, has nothing to do with it. :-)

The Mariners picked up the option on Eddie Guardado, taking him out of the potential free agent pool. With so many closers on the market, this is good news for the rest of the free agents. It makes them a little more valuable.

It's also a good move the Mariners. Eddie has a great record over the last four years, his only weakness being in allowing more home runs than you'd like from a closer. At $6.25 million, he seems well worth the money.

A.J. Burnett headed north of the border to visit the Toronto Blue Jays. We're getting an idea of how the Blue Jays are going to spend some of their increased budget.

He met with Toronto ace Roy Halladay, team management and pitching coach Brad Arnsberg on Wednesday. Burnett got a tour of the Rogers Centre and went for a steak dinner before attending the Raptors' NBA season opener with Halladay and Arnsberg, a former Marlins pitching coach who is still close with Burnett.

When asked about the possibility of signing with Toronto, Burnett said he was interested.

Chad Finn at Touching All the Bases looks at this year's free agent class and who out there might help the Red Sox.

I am being chided for leaving Paul Konerko and Johnny Damon off the list of glamorous free agents. Have you looked at Paul Konerko's stats, instead of listening to pundits? Carlos Delgado is a much better baseball player, and there was very little interest in him last year. Konerko is 30 and is coming off his best year, and it wasn't all that great given the level of offense in recent years. On top of that, he's helped by his ballpark, so his numbers a inflated a bit.

If you're problem is first base, it should be easier to solve than by throwing lots of money at Paul Konerko.

Damon is going to be 32 and is banged up. Damon peaked early in his career, age 25-26. He briefly reached that level again at age 30. But if you're looking at Damon, you're looking at a someone who's on the downside of his career. With a career OBA of .353, he doesn't set me on fire. If you look at your team and decide you need someone in center with above average on base skills to put you in the playoff, Damon's a fine one or two year player. But he's certainly not someone to sign long term vs. bringing up a 22 year-old that is likely to improve.

ESPN posts its list of potential free agents. Looks to me like there's slim pickings unless you're interested in a closer. Bengie Molina, Rafael Furcal, Brian Giles, A.J. Burnett and Jason Schmidt seem to be the only glamorous players that might be worth big bucks. This is going to be a market where GMs need to find pieces that fit well with what they have, rather than trying to remake their teams through star signings. Maybe that means will see more trade activity than signing activity this winter.

This is not a good way to leave a team:

Burnett blasted the Marlins organization after a 5-3 loss in Atlanta on Sunday.

"I've got one more start here, and that's all that matters," Burnett said on Sunday, in an apparent reference to leaving the team as a free agent.

"It's depressing around here. There's nothing positive around here. There's nothing positive on the staff now.

"You give up one home run, and it's a funeral. ... A positive pat on the back is better than anything," he said. "I haven't seen a pat on the back since April."

He's been told to go home and won't be offered a new contract.

Johnny Damon is talking about taking Kevin Millar with him if Damon signs elsewhere as a free agent.

``When I get to free agency, I'm going to talk to a lot of players because I know there's a lot of teams out there who are going to want me,'' said Damon. ``I'm going to take my time, call guys like Kevin Millar [stats, news], Billy Mueller, see where they end up, guys I've enjoyed playing with here. Put a package together, that's how much I care for these guys and how much they care for me. When I'm a free agent, I'll call Kevin and say, `Hey, who wants you?' I'll tell him who wants me and we'll turn another clubhouse inside out.''

Damon's opinion of his worth is very high. Four great season in eleven years of play doesn't make him look like a consistent performer to me. He's at the age where he's more likely to decline than improve. And finally, he's a Fenway hitter. His averages on the road this season are .308/.343/.436. Not bad, but hardly the kind of numbers that I'm going to bend over backwards to make happy.

Damon is a very good player and lots of clubs will be happy to sign him. But he's not worth the extra cost of a prima donna.

I haven't been able to think that much about the Tigers signing of Magglio Ordonez, but Joe Sheehan has (link requires registration). He doesn't like the deal.

There are so many things wrong with this deal that it's hard to structure a column about it. For one thing, Ordonez gets a longer, more lucrative deal than Vladimir Guerrero got last winter. He'll make just $2 million a year less than Carlos Beltran--younger, comparable hitter, more defensive value, not coming off a broken season--will over the course of his contract.

Neither of those two players hit the market not having played baseball since June of the previous season. Ordonez, who suffered an injury to his left knee on May 19 in a collision with Willie Harris, has played in just a couple of games since then. He underwent two operations on the knee, then was diagnosed with bone marrow edema in the knee, which isn't something that typically shows up in "Under the Knife." Ordonez didn't play any winter ball; the Tigers have signed him based largely on doctors' reports and faith in mankind.

On top of that, Ordonez just has not had that impressive a career. His win shares peaked at 26 when Mags was twenty eight years old, and he had five straight 20 win share seasons before he was hurt this year. Compare that to Giambi, who also was a free agent at the same age. Giambi was coming off two consectutive 38 win share seasons. Fifteen million a year for Mags is just two much, even if he stays healthy throughout the contract.

I believe the Tigers were caught when the supply of free agents dwindled. While all the other teams were willingly to wait and see, Detroit jumped in with an offer that couldn't be refused. Ordonez will likely improve the team, but it's at a very high cost.

It looks like Magglio Ordonez will be on the Detroit Tigers early next week. If the contract is being reported correctly, Ordonez is assuming most of the risk. If his injury reoccurs, the Tigers can void the contract after one year.

More on this when I'm over this bout of the flu.

Carlos Delgado has agreed to a deal with the Marlins which should net him close to $13 million a season for at least four years. A nice pickup for the Marlins. The Marlins got 14 win shares out of their first basemen last year. Delgado contributed 17 in a partial season. Delgado is one of those great hitters who both gets on base and hits for power.

This gives the Marlins a fairly fearsome middle of the order with Delgado, Lowell and Cabrera. If Lo Duca and Pierre can get on base decently, the Fish should fly across the plate.

It also puts Delgado closer to his home of Puerto Rico, which probably helped. However, expect his home run totals to go down as Dolphin Stadium is a tough home run park, especially on lefties.

The White Sox are about to add Tadahito Iguchi to their roster, their second Japanese import in two seasons. Iguchi will play second base.

At SoxFest earlier this month, Williams told a crowd of about 1,000 fans that the way they embraced reliever Shingo Takatsu last season was a big topic of discussion among Japanese players looking to play in the major leagues.

And because of the way the fans treated Takatsu, the Sox also might have received a discount on Iguchi.

I don't know about that. My guess is that there wasn't as much interest as Iguchi might have believed. Take a look at Tadahito's stats. There's a huge jump in production at age 28, way out of line with the rest of his career. Why? This post suggests that shoulder surgery corrected a problem. I've never heard of surgery making you that much better, especially a few years into your career. I'm very skeptical of this player's last two seasons being real.

This paragraph especially made me laugh.

The signing continues the Sox' overhaul by adding more speed. They likely have become the fastest team in the major leagues.

Iguchi and Podsednik make you the fastest team in the majors? I tend to equate speed with youth or Rickey Henderson. Podesnick is 29, Iguchi 30. Speedy Jermaine Dye is 31. Pierzynski is a catcher, so I doubt there's much speed there. Juan Uribe is young, but look how his base stealing deteriorated under Guillen! He was 19 for 23 through 2003, 9 for 20 in 2004. Picking your spots is much more important to successful base stealing than raw speed.

And all that speed doesn't matter if you're players don't get on base. Again, I don't believe Iguchi's last two seasons are real. I think he'll be lucky to do as well as Kaz Matsui did in 2004 with a .331 OBA. That's not a great number for a #2 hitter. Podsednik had one great year and one bad year; he did draw a decent amount of walks in the minors, but his OBA was only around 340. I have to believe his bad year is closer to his actual abilities. Uribe has a .307 career OBA. Dye hasn't had a good OBA since 2001. These guys better be fast, because they're going to need to cover a lot of ground the few times they get on base.

I'm sorry, I don't see a fast team here. I see a team that's stocking up on players just past their primes, who never had great primes in the first place. They'll need a lot of power from Konerko, Thomas and Everett to overcome the lack of baserunners due to the speedsters.

SaberMets has the latest news on the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes.

Scanning the list of available free agents today I noticed the name of Ben Grieve. Ben has been a puzzle to me since 1999. He had a great 1998, posting 22 win shares at age 22, his first full season in the majors. He leveled off at the 16-17 win share level for a few seasons, and has been in decline since. It has to be unusual for a player to have his best season at age 22, especially since his only real medical problem was during the 2003 season when he needed surgery to fix a blood clot in his shoulder.

Ben's career OBA is .367, but his slugging percentage is an unremarkable .443. He does hit doubles, however. He also hits a ton of ground balls. Maybe that's the problem. His best home run seasons are the two in which he got the ball in the air the most.

Still, it strikes me that he should be of some value to a team. He'd be a good #2 hitter. (AL #2 hitters averaged a .337 OBA and a .420 slugging percentage in 2004; NL .337 and .408). A fast artifical surface might help his grounders get through the infield. There aren't too many of those left, however. He seems like someone Toronto should want to pick up for under $1 million dollars. At age 29, he seems worth the risk.

Roberto Alomar has reached an agreement with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, contingent on passing a physical. Alomar should be an improvement over Rey Sanchez. His back, however, wasn't in good shape over the winter. If Alomar has anything left, the Rays could have a very good offensive middle infield, especially if B.J. Upton lives up to his minor league numbers.

Jim Baker is very negative on the Derek Lowe deal (requires subscription). I'm with Jim on this point (emphasis added):

I think everyone of our ilk assumes that DePodesta--who could have gotten what I got on the math SAT when he was still in the third grade--has figured out something that the rest of us are too intellectually ordinary to comprehend. There is this to consider: DePodesta is interested in making a splash, one that will set him apart from the system from whence he came and the Lowe deal is a means to that end. If Lowe, who, from all appearances, put the "me" in mediocre, has a miracle year in Los Angeles, then DePodesta's reputation will grow. Even if Lowe tanks in the final two or three years of his contract, it will be the initial rush that everyone will remember. That's quite a gamble, though. He could have passed on Lowe and nobody would have noticed that he was not on the Dodgers for 2005 and beyond.

I'm hoping that there is something that DePodesta sees in Lowe that I don't. But at the moment, I still believe it was too much money for too long a time.

Jayson Stark has a short article on how the Mets are now going after Carlos Delgado. It doesn't make a lot of sense to sign Delgado at this point if you expect Mike Piazza to be playing first.

Joel Sherman in the NY Post has the Mets going for a better defensive first baseman.

The Mets apparently are turning away from Carlos Delgado, which is the right thing no matter how wonderful a slugger he is. Delgado only masquerades as a first baseman. The Mets want to emphasize defense at the position to assist Reyes, Wright and Kaz Matsui. Travis Lee is the flavor of the moment. I prefer the surer health/New York makeup of John Olerud.

Frankly, I'd rather have Piazza's or Delgado's bat at first where they can't do that much defensive damage. I suppose you could come up with a platoon where Piazza catches against righties and Delgado plays first, and Piazza plays first against lefties and Phillips catches. I'd love to hear from Mets fans on this.

The NY Times and others are reporting that the Mets and Beltran have reached a deal, seven years for $119 million. Another good job by Boras.

It also makes me wonder what Beltran would have done three years ago if the Royals had offered him a long term contract for half the money? I still don't understand why teams don't try to lock up young talent long term (5+ years) before they become eligible for arbitration. That way, you'll get their best years, you insulate yourself from salary inflation, and you don't have to waste time with arbitration hearings. And if the player bombs, you haven't lost that much money compared to what you lose signing a Mo Vaughn type. With all the players they've traded, the Royals would have been a pretty good team over the last few years if they had managed to keep their stars.

Carlos Beltran will not be on the Astros in 2005.

Beltran, the 27-year-old center fielder who helped the Astros to their first playoff series win and captivated the city's baseball fans with his amazing array of skills, turned down the biggest contract in Astros history just a few minutes before an 11 p.m. Saturday deadline and chose to sign with the New York Mets.

"It slipped through our fingers in the last, last few minutes," said Astros owner Drayton McLane, who was told by Beltran's agent that Beltran was finalizing his deal with the Mets. "It was just some sticking points. It should never, never have gotten to this."

If Beltran really wanted to stay in Houston, they could have found a way around those sticking points. This rumor was correct; it appears that Boras was using Houston to drive up the price.

The Mets are believed to have increased their bid from $112M to about $119M over seven years in attempts to complete a shocking offseason double by adding the market's best hitter (Beltran) and pitcher (Pedro Martinez).

If the Mets do get Beltran, look for a trade of Mike Cameron, possibly to the Diamondbacks. I'm not sure how much the Mets can get for Mike, since he'll start the season on the DL after surgery on his left wrist. Wrist injuries have a way of knocking down hitting stats; once the wrist heals, it seems to take a while for a hitter to get his stroke back.

So the Mets are making big splashes this winter, signing both Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. As replacements for Leiter and Cameron, the Mets picked up an additional 18 win shares, or six wins. Maybe seven if Pedro bounces back to a 20 win share season. Wright and Reyes still have lots of room for improvement. If they each could get to 15 win shares this season, that would add another five wins. So the way the team stands right now, the Mets look to be about a .500 team. It just goes to show how small an impact one or two players can make. It's up to management now to surround those two with good players so the fans will show up to see the stars and victories.

Update: Now the big question in Houston is, can the Astros keep Clemens?

Update: One of the commentors below reports that the Mets are planning on playing Cameron in right, not trading him. Much of Cameron's value as a player lies in his defense. Last season, Mike put up 5.9 win shares defensively, or 33% of his value came from his defense. Beltran was about even, at 6.0 win shares on defense, but that represented less than 20% of his value. If you move a player from center to right, his defensive value will go down, simply because there are less balls for a right fielder to catch. There are two reasons for this:

1. The centerfielder should catch most balls that are reachable by both fielders. It's the CF's job to catch anything he can reach.
2. Their are fewer left-handed batters than right-handed batters.

What is important defensively for a right fielder is a strong arm. Cameron had 7 assists last season in 135 games in center field. Beltran had 8 in 89 CF games for the Astros.

If the Mets are going to have an arrangement where Beltran and Cameron are both in the outfield, it should be Cameron in center and Beltran in right. That takes the most advantage of each player's strengths. I'd actually rather see the Mets keep Floyd, a good hitter and trade Cameron if they're going to play Beltran in center. Mike, as a great defensive player at an important defensive position has value. Maybe Houston would be willing to part with a prospect for Mike now that they're short a CF. :-)

If the they can get the Green deal done, the Dodgers will use the green they've saved to sign Derek Lowe. It's a four-year deal at $8 million a year.

I don't know what DePodesta sees in Lowe. His main talent as a pitcher is not allowing a ton of HR. In his superb 2002 season he walked less than 2 per 9 and gave up a HR every 18 innings. Both those are up over 50% since then. LA had a better defense than Boston in 2004, so maybe Paul believes that will bring Lowe's ERA down. It's an interesting decision, especially the length of the contract. If it goes bad, DePodesta will be reminded of it for four years.

In the unconfirmed rumor department, a reader sent a link to this story on NYFansites.com, indicating the Mets have reached an agreement with Beltran. Beware the caveat, however:

The team would not confirm this report and NYFS could not get independent verification.

The Tigers, however, are out of the running.

Update: If the numbers are right, the Mets are getting a pretty good deal. Compare him to Manny and A-Rod before they signed their big deals.

Years Leading to Contract	Alex Rodriguez	Manny Ramirez	Carlos Beltran
Avg. Win Shares, 3 Previous Years	30	29	27
Seasons with 20+ win shares prior	5	6	4
$ per year	$25,000,000	$20,000,000	$16,000,000

Beltran's price tag does not seem out of line to me when you compare it to the big deals of earlier this decade. However, it's pretty clear that Miguel Tejada picked the wrong year to become a free agent. Tejada'a numbers were as good if not better than Beltran's, and he only got $11 million a year.

Update: A couple of people asked in the comments about a comparison to Vlad Guerrero. I actually did the comparison and didn't include it because it wasn't that close. The problem is that Vlad had a serious injury in his contract year, only picking up 18 win shares. Plus, while Vlad had five 20+ win share seasons, he's never had a 30 win share season. Vlad's back was a big question mark as he filed for free agency, and that was going to keep his price down. Beltran is coming off his best year after improving two years in a row.

Outside the Beltway looks at the tax implications of a New York team signing Carlos Beltran, both for the player and the teams.

Murray Chass pens a piece in today's NY Times saying that the Yankees are not interested in Carlos Beltran if the Johnson deal is completed.

But if a weekend signal is accurate, the most intriguing story has yet to happen. If it does happen, it will be a nonmove, as opposed to the Martínez, Wells, Johnson, Hudson and Mulder moves.

The nonmove? The Yankees will not sign Carlos Beltran, the most attractive, and expensive, position player on the free-agent market. But it's not just that the Yankees will not be signing Beltran. The story would be that the Yankees will not even try to sign him.

That was the surprising signal from a baseball official over the weekend. The official, who is in a position to hear such things, heard last week that the Yankees did not plan to pursue Beltran.

Chass points out how having the Yankees out of the bidding war hurts Boras and Beltran's chance at a giant contract (although the way the Mets have been spending money, he might do just fine). This is also probably good news for the Astros, as it gives them less competition to retain Beltran's services.

It also makes the Yankees decline more inevitable. This was a chance for the Yankees to reverse the aging process a bit by bringing in a centerfielder in his prime. Instead, A-Rod will be the youngest position player at age 29. The right side, including Bernie Williams, are all over 35. Posada is getting old for a catcher. A 40+ year old is going to anchor the rotation. At some point, the Yankees are going to need a major overhaul; maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon. They're going to find themselves in need of a centerfielder, second baseman, catcher and staff ace. Filling any one of those positions with a great player is difficult; filling all at once is nearly impossible.

Beltran is the right move for the Yankees to make long term. They should forget Johnson and go after Carlos. He would take care of centerfield for four or five years. They could then keep Navarro and let him develop as a catcher and keep Halsey and see if he develops as a pitcher. Instead, in their quest to win now, the great team of the 1990's is quickly reverting to the okay team of the 1980's. A losing record won't be far behind.

It's been rumored for a while and talked about for days, but it looks like the Yankees have finally done it. Tino Martinez is returning to the Bronx. I love the opening of the article:

The Yankees won four titles with Tino Martinez manning first base from 1996-2001. They haven't won a ring, however, since Martinez left the Bronx after the 2001 season.

Interestingly enough, Tino's best year was 1997, the year the Yankees got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. He was a solid player for NY, but he hasn't had a 20 win share season since he left the big apple. He's also showing the classic sign of aging; his walks are going up as he tries to compensate for lack of bat speed by being more selective. It won't be long before pitchers realize what's going on and start taking advantage of it.

If the Yankees are hiring him as a late inning defensive replacement/part time first baseman, that's fine. If they believe he can contribute a lot as an everyday player, I doubt it. For the life of me, I can't understand why every team in the majors doesn't have a young big bopper at first in AAA just for these situations. I'd much rather pay a 22-year-old $300,000 to be below average than $2 million to an old vet.

Oh, and by the way, it looks like the Randy Johnson deal will get done, also. :-)

The Talk Arena links with news that the Cardinals have reached an agreement with Robbie Alomar. As reported earlier, Robbie's back has been bothering him so much he couldn't play winter ball. Still, Jeff Gordon thinks it's a good signing. He lists Alomar's problems, then compares him to Larry Walker.

On the other hand, we heard that Walker was on the decline before his arrival in St. Louis. We heard he could no longer get around on the fastball.

We heard that Walker was incapable or unwilling to stay in the lineup. We saw how eager Colorado was to unload him, eating a big chunk of his remaining contract to finalize a trade with the Cards.

The Rockies just didn’t give Walker away, they paid the Cards to take Larry off their hands.

And you saw what happened. Given a happy home ahead of Albert Pujols in the batting order, Walker regained his All-Star form.

Last year, I thought the DBacks got a steal signing him for $1 million. But Avkash in the comments got it right.

Having seen him up close the past two seasons, its clear to me that he is absolutely overmatched at the plate. He can no longer turn anything over 90 MPH into a basehit, and he can't turn anything into an extra base hit. If he's hitting right handed, be happy he only makes one out, and doesn't ground into a double play or something.

There are better ways to spend $500,000.

I had a long post written on Eric Milton and the Reds, but my browser crashed. I'll try to do a shorter version of the same post.

Milton chose the Reds because of the player moves they've made. They obviously want to win.

The Reds traded for starter Ramon Ortiz Dec. 14, signed right-handed relievers Ben Weber and David Weathers the next day, signed left-handed reliever Kent Mercker Dec. 20 and third baseman Joe Randa Dec. 21.

If that flurry of activity hadn't happened, Milton wouldn't have considered the Reds.

"Obviously that's what you want to see," he said. "They were in first place a lot of last year. Then they tried to improve."

So the moves that impressed him were four old guys and Ramon Ortiz, who isn't young. Only Mercker has been great recently, and that's after a long stretch of poor pitching. Ortiz gives up too many HR, Randa doesn't hit enough of them. Weber was demoted to triple A last season, and Weathers has had one good three-year stretch in an otherwise long and uneventful career.

Signing Carlos Beltran is wanting to win. Signing these aging players is hoping for a good year on the cheap. Both Ortiz and Milton have a tendancy to allow HR, and so far Great American Ballpark has favored HR hitters. My guess is that the Reds didn't have as much competition for Milton as they thought. They gave him a good deal and he took it. The Reds moves are a nice excuse, but if Milton really wanted to win, he would have taken less money from the Yankees.

In yesterday's post about the Puerto Rican Winter Leagues, I noticed this item (emphasis added).

Bithorn Stadium, just 10 minutes south of San Juan, has struggled to draw even nominal attendance despite a renovated stadium and the presence of Crabbers infielders Alomar and Carlos Baerga (who doubles as team president). A recent injury to Alomar has helped curtail interest, but ardent fans say the team's problems — as well as the league's and, by extension, Puerto Rico's — run much deeper.

I couldn't find anything about it on the web, so I contacted Edwin Rodriguez who runs the web page for the winter league. He filled in some details:

Alomar started the season in Puerto Rico already under treatment for his lower back. At least once a week he was flying to the states (don't know where) to get treatment. After the second week of the season it was too much for him, his back wasn't in good shape.

That much I can tell you, I was asking the same when he left but nobody knew the specifics.

This is the same back injury that kept him out of action most of September. I was wondering why there's been so little interest in him, and I guess this was the reason. Could his career be over?

It would be sad if that were so, with Robbie only 276 hits from 3000. That's just two decent seasons. But his production has been way off from his career averages the last three seasons, and now he seems to have a bad back on top of it all. If a team does sign him, he'll have to play cheap.

If his career is over, does he go into the Hall of Fame? His baseball reference web page shows 2 of the 4 HOF indicators having him elected. It also shows him most comparable to Craig Biggio and Lou Whitaker, very good players who arent' going to make the Hall.

The other question worth asking; is he the greatest player from Puerto Rico? He compares very favorable to Clemente; Roberto C. had 377 win shares in 18 seasons; Robbie A. had 375 in 17 seasons, about 1 more win share per season. It's hard to believe that Alomar could replace Clemente in the Island's heart, due to Clemente's heroic and tragic death. But he may very well be the best player the island has produced.

If anyone has more information on Alomar's back, please let me know.

Update: Fixed broken link.

A rather humerous 10 top list was written in the comments to this post.

One of my commentors had David Eckstein fitting in with the Cardinals, and he was right. The little engine who could signed a three year deal with St. Louis for a couple of million more than OC is getting in the OC. The ESPN article has David playing shortstop; I tend to think he would be better playing 2nd base because his arm is simply not that strong. But his real value will be as a table setter for the Cardinals power lineup. However, he's had two years in a row of sub-par performance at getting on base. At age 30, I don't believe his best years are ahead of him. The Cardinals haven't spent much money, but they may not be getting much of a table setter either.

It looks like Moises Alou will be reuntied with his dad as there are reports the younger Alou will sign with the Giants. Younger is a relative term, as it appears the Giants will be chasing fly balls with these:

Bonds' seasonal age will be 40 for 2005, Grissom 38 and Alou 38. I'm sorry, that's an old outfield. Slow grounders in the gap are going for doubles next year. :-) On top of that, the Giants signed Vizquel (38 in 2005) and Mike Matheny (34 in 2005). The youngest projected position player is Alfonzo at 31! The Giants are really testing the theory that veterans play better than youngsters. :-) There's a real possibility that a number of these players hit the wall at the same time and this ends up the worst team in the NL West.

As for Alou, I wouldn't expect him to help Bonds IBB total go down much. Pacific Bell Park has a huge negative impact on right-handed home runs. Over the last three seasons, right-handers have hit 218 HR in Pac Bell, but 291 in Giants road games. According to The Bill James Handbook 2005, it's the worst park for home runs by right-handed hitters in the NL. With a right-hander on the mound, given a choice between Bonds and Alou, most managers are going to pitch to Moises. The only thing that will bring Barry's IBB totals down is a decline in Barry's ability to hit.

MLB.com is reporting that the Dodgers have reached an agreement with J.D. Drew.

Drew was the ultimate prize the Dodgers were pursuing with the money that would have been freed by the aborted trade, which would have moved Shawn Green, Brad Penny, Kazuhisa Ishii and Yhency Brazoban off the payroll.

Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta was so far along with the Drew negotiations he apparently felt the club could handle that acquisition and still fill the two remaining holes in the starting rotation.

Drew brings the ability to get on base and good power to the Dodgers. He has a career .391 OBA and a .513 slugging percentage. He's also a good base stealer to boot, swiping at a 76.3% clip for his career. Drew's main problem has been injuries. He'll take the field as a 29 year-old in 2005, but he's never played 150 games in a season. His 145 games in 2004 was a career high, and before that J.D. had never played more than 135 games.

The give the Dodgers an outfield of walk machine Jayson Werth in left, Milton "Boy, Did I Blow My Endorsement Opportunities" Bradley in cneter and J.D. Drew in right. Not bad.

Paul Oberjuerge of the SB Sun doesn't like the way David Eckstein was replaced in Anaheim.

David Eckstein, guttiest, grittiest little gamer in modern baseball history ... nicest, politest guy in any major-league clubhouse ... kid who helped the Angels win the 2002 World Series and the 2004 American League West title ...

Dumped by the Angels.

Tossed out like a piece of rotten meat.

Kicked to the side of the road like a dead dog. And just in time for Christmas. Thanks for the memories, Eck, and the unemployment office is in Santa Ana.

And why? So the Angels could commit $32 million over four years to a guy whose career batting average is .268 to Eckstein's .278.

Whose career on-base percentage is .316 to Eckstein's .347.

Who in the past four seasons has hit into 65 double plays to Eckstein's 38.

Who is older than Eckstein and who hasn't made a single contribution to the Angels' breakthrough success of the past three seasons.

Good luck, Orlando Cabrera. You're going to be as popular in Anaheim as Georgia Frontiere.

Paul goes on to point out that the Angels could have kept David for a couple of million dollars. Is this a good deal? Let's look at the win shares.

Total Win Shares for SS, 2004, Min 100 Games at SS

First Name	Last Name	Games at SS	Total WinShares
Miguel	Tejada	162	30
Derek	Jeter	154	26
Cesar	Izturis	159	25
Jimmy	Rollins	154	25
Michael	Young	158	25
Carlos	Guillen	135	24
Jack	Wilson	156	23
Rafael	Furcal	131	21
Julio	Lugo	143	21
Khalil	Greene	136	20
Omar	Vizquel	147	17
Edgar	Renteria	149	17
Alex	Gonzalez	158	15
Cristian	Guzman	145	15
Jose	Valentin	122	14
Kazuo	Matsui	110	14
Bobby	Crosby	151	13
Deivi	Cruz	104	12
Craig	Counsell	129	11
Royce	Clayton	144	11
Orlando	Cabrera	159	11
Angel	Berroa	133	10
David	Eckstein	139	9
Alex	Cintron	133	8

Total Win Shares for SS, 2001-2004, Min 250 Games at SS

First Name	Last Name	Games at SS	Total WinShares
Alex	Rodriguez	322	97
Miguel	Tejada	486	87
Derek	Jeter	428	68
Edgar	Renteria	454	68
Rafael	Furcal	436	66
Nomar	Garciaparra	389	64
Jimmy	Rollins	460	60
Jose	Valentin	315	48
Carlos	Guillen	341	48
Jack	Wilson	448	46
Orlando	Cabrera	474	45
Julio	Lugo	366	44
Omar	Vizquel	361	43
Cristian	Guzman	432	41
David	Eckstein	402	40
Cesar	Izturis	445	40
Alex	Gonzalez	350	38
Juan	Uribe	267	37
Alex	Gonzalez	373	34
Rich	Aurilia	333	32
Deivi	Cruz	398	29
Barry	Larkin	279	27
Angel	Berroa	311	27
Royce	Clayton	394	26
Adam	Everett	261	24
Neifi	Perez	260	21

Both SS were poor in 2004. Over the previous three seasons, Orlando put up five more win shares in 70 more games. Oberjuerge is right; there's nothing you're getting from Cabrerra that you wouldn't get from Eckstein. And now the Angels are paying a whole lot more money for it.

This deal also makes clear why the Red Sox spent the money on Renteria. The market was such that they couldn't sign Cabrerra cheaply; now they have someone who is better, and they have to hope 2004 was just a random bad year.

As for David Eckstein, I bet there are a few teams that could use a player with a .347 OBA. Don't the Twins need a shortstop?

John Bonnes at TwinsGeek.com notices how the entire AL Central has been pretty much shut out of the free agent market.

The Twins took some heat last week (justifiably) for losing Corey Koskie. I suspect they will take some heat this week (not justifiably) for non-tendering Jacque Jones. But the migration of top level player towards big money teams this offseason - the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, etc. - has affected the Twins' AL Central brethren just as much. The difference in those towns is that the criticism isn't about who they have lost, but who they haven't gained.

When the Indians got close to the AL Central title last season I expected them to make a deal. None happened. I expected them to make a deal this winter to try to push the team over the edge. Again, nothing. Was it the money, or did deals just move faster than these teams thought they would?

He's one letter off from Roger Clemens, and now it looks like Matt Clement will be joining the Red Sox.

Clement made a jump when he joined the Cubs, raising his K per 9 from a good 7.1 to a great 8.8. His ERA took a big dip with this jump. He's not Pedro, but with the offense the Red Sox offer, I expect he'll finally have a season with a winning percentage well over .500. Red Sox fans should be very happy with this deal.

I'd like to expand on a couple of ideas that are floating through the comments on the Beltre signing and the Randy Johnson trade. The first is that the Beltre's career is inconsistent with his 2004 season. While that's true, as I said in this post,

His jump in statistics at age 25 is more likely to be real than someone who puts their first great year at 29 or 30.

But more telling, I believe, is that DePodesta offered six years guaranteed, although at a lower yearly rate (how much lower isn't clear). That DePodesta made that kind of offer tells me Paul believes there's a lot of future value in Beltre.

The second idea is that it's okay for the Yankees to trade Eric Duncan because A-Rod is blocking him at third. This reminds me of the Red Sox trading Jeff Bagwell because Scott Cooper was blocking him at third. Remember the defensive spectrum:

<-- Increasing need for defense
P  C  SS  2B  CF  3B  RF  LF  1B  DH
Increasing need for offense -->

A good offensive player who is blocked at third has plenty of room to move right on this spectrum. And a great defensive third baseman can actually move left to 2nd or even short. Remember Cal Ripken? I don't know enough about Duncan to say where he could be moved, but the idea that he couldn't play on the Yankees because of A-Rod is incorrect.

Update: ESPN is saying that the Johnson deal is not as close as reported last night.

I asked Sig Mejdal, who wrote the injury prediction section of The Bill James Handbook 2005 to comment on the probabilities of injuries in 2005 for Sexson and Martinez.

Sexson is #231 as far as any injury. that's moderate and is a .149 chance.

He is the 37th highest risk for shoulder injury. Yes, he had one last year, but he didnt have any in the last 2 years and for his career, he has been quite healthy. All those things are looked at. Still, he has a .036 chance of a major shoulder injury next year according to the regression. That is good for #37 on the list.

Pedro is #152 as far as pitchers for Any Injury. He has a .166 chance in 2005. He is #61 for a shoulder injury. He has a few years on him, and although he has not had a shoulder injury in the last 2 years (which the regression really looks at), he has had quite a few cat4&5 seasons in his youth, and that is an indicator of future shoulder injuries (although an interaction analysis between the number of cat4&5 and age, I didnt do, but would be interesting to see). That's why he scores fairly high on a shoulder injury even though he has been relatively free of the major injuries (i.e. those that keep you out for a month or more). He is #126 for an elbow injury (.067), and is #408 (.005) for an arm injury. Remember, those are all injuries that keep you out for 30 consecutive days.

Thanks, Sig.

The Seattle Mariners spent even more money today, signing NL home run champ Adrian Beltre to a huge five-year contract. Beltre was just behind Scott Rolen in win shares last year, and had the most defensive win shares of any NL third baseman.

This may be the best free agent signing of the year. A leading indicator of baseball greatness is reaching the majors at an early age. Beltre came up when he was 19, and has been a starter ever since. His jump in statistics at age 25 is more likely to be real than someone who puts their first great year at 29 or 30. Beltre is the rare free agent (like Roberto Alomar and Alex Rodriguez) who hits the market on the way up. A great job by the Mariners to acquire this youngster.

With the Mets signing Pedro Martinez and the Mariners signing Richie Sexson, Mo Vaughn comparisons are coming to mind. Jayson Stark puts it this way.

The Red Sox were never going to guarantee this man four years. They weren't particularly excited about guaranteeing him three years.

They know -- everybody knows -- Martinez has a tear in his labrum that's practically as wide as the San Andreas Fault. One informed estimate put that tear as 90 percent full.

So there is a stupendous chance that one of these days, Pedro will go from being Omar Minaya's most famous acquisition straight to being the Mets' next Mo Vaughn.

Minus the insurance, that is.

And that's an important point. Pedro passed his physical yesterday and did have an MRI. Will that be good enough to get the Mets a policy?

Of course, the person who started the whole Mo fiasco was none other than Bill Bavasi.

But Bavasi landed his other target, Red Sox first baseman Mo Vaughn. Bavasi impressed Vaughn with a letter written personally, imploring Vaughn to pick up his East Coast roots and move west. And it didn't hurt that Bavasi offered Vaughn $80 million over six years. Vaughn signed with the Angels, who believed they were in position to get over the top and reach the playoffs for the first time since 1986.

On opening night in 1999 a sellout crowd came to Anaheim's Edison Field to see Vaughn and the Angels play the Cleveland Indians. But in the top of the first inning, the second batter of the game, Omar Vizquel, hit a foul popup near the Indians' first-base dugout. Vaughn drifted over near the dugout, looking into the sky, then fell into the dugout, landing hard on his left ankle.

Vaughn shook it off and stayed in the game. But when he fell to the ground while batting later in the game, it was obvious the injury was worse that first imagined. Vaughn came out of the game and was diagnosed with a severe high-ankle sprain.

Bill gave a lot of money to another first baseman yesterday.

The Seattle Mariners added power to one of the weakest lineups in baseball Wednesday, agreeing to a $50 million, four-year contract with free agent first baseman Richie Sexson.

Sexson will be playing left field, meaning that the Mariners believe they can sign another first baseman, probably Delgado.

I don't like the Sexson deal for two reasons.

1. It's a lot of money for a 30 year old who has only two 20+ win shares seasons under his belt. Seattle is the worst hitters park in the AL. Sexson's number may not look so good there.


2. Sexson is a first baseman for a reason. You don't take a good outfielder and put him at first. You take someone who's not a good outfielder and put him at first to hide his defensive deficiencies.

So the Mariners are going to pay a lot of money to players in their 30's who are at the poor end of the defensive spectrum. They are forcing a square peg into a round hole. I suspect Sexson will wind up at DH, and $10 million a year is a lot of money for a DH.

Update: The Mets just had a new conference introducing Pedro. Omar Minaya said something interesting. He claims that Pedro's transcends wins and losses. That having Pedro sign with the Mets will make other players want to be Mets. He says he's already getting calls from free agents saying "I want to be a Met." He hopes that this will help him find the next Pedro.

That kid that we don't know about, that Pedro Martinez that you don't know about, I don't know about, okay, that might be in the marketplace down in the Dominican Republic or Venezuela. That kid's father, or that kid, you know what he wants to be today? He wants to be a Met.

Will the Mets have enough money to sign that youngster?

In choosing between the two shortstops, I have no doubt the Red Sox made the right choice. Renteria is a year younger than Cabrera, and has a much better track record. Cabrera having one good year at age 28 doesn't impress me. Given that Cabrera is now looking for $7 million a year, it seems much saner to spend the money on Renteria. Someone is going to get stuck with paying a lot of money to Orlando, and they won't get much in return.

Edgar Renteria appears to have signed a four-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. He'll be getting $10 million a year.

A reader mailed and asked if I thought the price was high. Given that the best shortstops make at least $15 million a year, I guess not. Edgar had a big falloff in 2004 after a great 2003. Three of his last five years have been very good. The Red Sox must be thinking they'll get at least a couple of very good years out of the shortstop.

His defense last year was not outstanding as rated by win shares. Given that the Red Sox were after defense during the middle of the season, they may be taking a step back here, especially when Wells is pitching (lots of balls in play against Boomer).

Sometimes, however, you just need a shortstop.

At Elaine's apartment.

Robert: Hahaha, why'd you start that fight with me?

Elaine: Well I figured that's what couples do.

Robert: You almost convinced me we were a couple.

Elaine: Well it was easy. Really.

Robert: Well good night, I'll call you tomorrow.

Elaine: Oh, uh, wait a second. Would you like to come, upstairs?

Robert: Upstairs?

Elaine: Yeah. Upstairs?

Robert: Elaine...

Elaine: I was hoping you know, that you might be interested in... changing teams?

Robert: Changing teams?

Elaine: Have you ever thought about it?

Robert: But I'm a starting shortstop.

Elaine: Robert, we need a shortstop. *Real bad*.

In this case, the Red Sox went for the best one available, and in a bidding war with the Cardinals, the price went up. If the good Renteria shows up, it will be worth it. If, at age 29, Edgar keeps declining, it will be a bad signing.

The word is Pedro is going to sign with the Mets. More later.

Update: Here's the story from Boston.com. I'm wondering if Pedro is trying to get Boston to budge on the fourth year. Pedro has a much better chance of going to the playoffs with the Red Sox than the Mets. Is he trying to drive the Red Sox price up, or does he really want that fourth year? We'll wait and see.

Of course, this is a good signing for the Mets. Shea is a great park in which to pitch, and I suspect Martinez will have success there. It's also probably a good thing that he'll have Rick Peterson as his pitching coach; he may help prevent future breakdowns.

Of course, this leaves Boston in an interesting position.

Short of making a splash in the Randy Johnson negotiations, Boston’s pitching staff for 2005 is going to be significantly weaker. As it stands now, it’s Schilling-Wells-Arroyo-Wakefield-Kim. Oh, and ticket prices went up too. Good thing they sold those seats over the weekend, eh?

David Wells is your No. 2 starter. Even worse, Byung Hyun Kim is in the rotation.

Given the mediocre moves the Yankees have made, for the first time in a long time, the AL East could be wide open.

Corey Koskie has agreed to sign with the Blue Jays, accepting a contract worth about $5.7 million dollars per year. It seems like a good price to plug a hole at third base. Koskie beat Hinske in offsensive win shares by about 7 last season, and Hinske played about 30 more games.

Hinske has to be a huge disappointment to the Blue Jays after getting off to such a good start in 2002 as Rookie of the Year. He was an old rookie, getting his first ML experience at 24. But instead of getting better as he entered his prime, his OBA and Slugging have deteriorated to the point where he'd make a bad offensive shortstop. That's why this made me laugh:

In Toronto, Koskie will take over at third base for Eric Hinske, the 2002 AL Rookie of the Year. Toronto either will move Hinske to first base or trade him.

Eric can't hit like a first baseman should. I would be very surprised to see Hinske on the Blue Jays next year, unless he can turn around his batting. He's still owed 3 years of a $15 million contract, so moving the money shouldn't be a problem. Maybe he needs a good hitting coach.

Carl Pavano has announced his intentions of signing with the Yankees. It appears that Joe Torre made the difference.

But on Saturday morning, from his off-season home in the woods near

Montreal, Pavano told his agent to negotiate a deal with the Yankees. The sides were closing in on a four-year contract for just under $40 million, pending a physical, and Manager Joe Torre made the difference. "His conversations with Joe Torre, who spoke with him again by phone in the last couple of days, really were impactful," Pavano's agent, Scott Shapiro, said. "Carl told me point-blank that he would go to war for the man. You can't say anything bad about the decision of wanting to play for Joe Torre."

Taking away the clubhouse from George Steinbrenner is Torre's great accomplishment as manager of the Yankees. In the past, no matter who sat in the manager's office, the whole team belonged to the Boss. Now Joe is the guard on the bridge that keeps the two sides separate. The players and Steinbrenner both respect Torre for that. That's why he has the 2nd longest tenure among ML managers in a clubhouse that had a revolving door for 20 years.

There seems to be some question as to Pavano's worth. Based on 2004, $10 million a year is a good price. Carl put up 20 win shares last season, tied with Roger Clemens for 3rd in the NL. Only Randy Johnson and Ben Sheets were better. But this was a big jump for Pavano. In six season prior to 2004, Carl had earned just 29 win shares total. He doesn't strikeout many batters, 5.6 per 9. With the Yankees defense, that's always a worry. His walks and his HRs are good, however. The Yankees will be banking on Pavano being a late bloomer.

The Red Sox add a large lefty to the rotation:

The Red Sox have come to terms with 41-year-old left-hander David Wells. The deal guarantees $8 million for one year, but if he makes 31 starts he would be guaranteed $13 million. The two-year contract could be worth $16 to $18 million.

Under the terms of the agreement, Wells would receive a $3 million signing bonus and have a base salary of $2.5 million in 2005 and 2006, The Boston Globe reported. He also would have the opportunity to earn an additional $5 million in performance bonuses in each year of the contract. The deal will not be official until Wells passes a physical, reportedly scheduled for Tuesday.

This doesn't sound good for Derek Lowe. I would think the Red Sox would be more interested in resigning Pedro, which would give them a rotation of Martinez, Schilling, Wells, Wakefield and Arroyo. That rotation would certainly celebrate a diversity of pitches.

Wells is no longer a strikeout pitcher, so like Lowe, he'll need a good defense behind him. David has compensated for the loss of his strikeouts by cutting down on walks as well. He has a career K per BB of 3.07, but each of the last two years it's been 5.05.

2004 Was the year of the old pitcher. It seems to be showing up in their paychecks as well.

And I love this:

To end their championship drought, the Red Sox turned the clubhouse over to free spirits like Johnny Damon, David Ortiz and Kevin Millar -- an unshaven and unkempt bunch that foiled the strait-laced Yankees and won an unprecedented eight consecutive games after spotting New York a three-game lead in the AL Championship Series.

Wells would fit right in.

The boisterous lefty missed three starts in late May and early June -- costing himself $1 million in incentives -- after tripping over a bar stool at home, knocking a bottle of wine onto the floor and landing on it and a glass he was holding. He severed a tendon in his right wrist, requiring surgery, and cut his left palm.

I wonder why he tripped? :-)

Asked Friday if he was concerned that Wells' carousing might upset the chemistry in the Boston clubhouse, general manager Theo Epstein said sarcastically, "No, we don't have any guys like that."

I thought that there was a good chance of Boston taking a breather; letting their free agents go, gathering some draft picks, building up the farm system and squirreling away some cash to create a future dynasty. But the signing of Wells indicates they want to repeat. At this point, I would expect them to make a push to bring back Pedro and Varitek. They're not resting on their laurels.

The Diamondback continue to retool, signing pitcher Russ Ortiz to a four year contract. Ortiz will get a little over $8 million per year.

I get the impression that the Diamondbacks are buying Russ' wins, not his ability. This deal reminds me of the time the Royals signed Storm Davis. Davis had gone 16-7 and 19-7 in the two years before he became a free agent. But he did that on a very good team, and his ERA was 4.36 in his 19-7 year. The Royals thought his wins came with him. His ERA went up to 4.76, and he went 7-10 for a bad Royals club.

Ortiz's ERA has gone up 3 years in a row. The Diamondbacks are not a good team. Ortiz is a good, not great pitcher. He could easily be .500 or worse with the DBacks unless the rest of the team gets better.

Reports are that Steve Finley has signed a deal with the Anaheim Angels. I'm not sure what this means. Are the Angels going to play Finley in right and go after Beltran, or do they see Finley as the everyday CF?

According to the LA Times, it takes them out of the Beltran race. If that's true, this is a bad signing and my admiration for the Angels front office and ownership just went down.

The deal, believed to guarantee the 39-year-old Finley between $15 million and $20 million over two years, will go a long way toward filling the power void left by the departures of left fielder Jose Guillen and third baseman Troy Glaus and should give the Angels one of baseball's most formidable outfields, with Vladimir Guerrero, the American League most valuable player, in right and Garret Anderson in left.

"I think it's a better outfield than we had last year," said Tim Salmon, the Angel veteran who will sit out most of 2005 while recovering from knee and shoulder surgery. "Garret did an admirable job in center, but I think his natural position is left. And offensively, [Finley] gives us one more good solid bat. He still has some sock."

The deal also leaves the Angels in good financial position to pursue such top-notch free-agent pitchers as Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, Russ Ortiz and possibly Pedro Martinez, and to possibly make another run at Arizona ace Randy Johnson, whom the Angels tried to acquire in July.

That's a lot of money for a 2005 forty year old. And the idea that Finley is a power threat doesn't really jibe with his career. His career high in home runs is 36, and he hit that last year. (In light of the recent steroid scandal, it makes you wonder.) His career slugging percentage is .450 and his career OBA is .337; those number just don't impress me.

On the other hand, I thought he was done after his 1998 season with the Padres (.301 OBA, .401 Slugging). But here he is being a very well paid aging player. Still, I bet $15 million a year for three years for Beltran would be a much better investment. This could really go down as one of the memorably bad free agent signings.

Correction: My brain wasn't working when I wrote the first paragraph. Somehow I have Guillen in right field in my mind. The Angels just needed a new CF so they could move Anderson back to left.

Houston has lost one piece of its Wild Card team, and may soon lose another. Jeff Kent signed today with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers got a pretty good deal, as home town native Kent signed for $17 million over two years.

On the surface, 2nd base doesn't appear to be a problem for LA. In 2004, LA pivot men had an .813 OPS, third in the NL. But that was based on exceptional seasons from Alex Cora and Jose Hernandez, both have OBA's way above their norms. DePodesta likely doesn't trust those numbers, so he's filling a hole that's likely to develop.

The other piece of the puzzle that may go missing is Roger Clemens, who is thinking of retiring again.

"If I had to decide today, I'd say I'm not playing," Clemens said Thursday. "But I'm not saying that. My wife and family want me to wait until after I take a vacation before I make a decision."

"Three of my sons say there's no way they want me to come back and one of them wants me to. But I think he just likes the buffets they have at the games. So we'll have to see," he said.

There's a young man after my own heart. :-) Clemens' departure would leave a hole in the rotation, but it would also free more money to sign Carlos Beltran.

The White Sox have inked Jermaine Dye to a two year contract. The good news is that he's not costing a lot, $10 million over the two years. The bad news is that he's not going to fill Magglio Ordonez's shoes.

Ordonez and Dye have exactly the same birthday, 1/28/1974. And apart from playing the outfield, that's about all they have in common.

Career	Dye	Ordonez
Seasons	9	8
150 Game Seasons	3	5
OBA	.343	.364
Seasons	.463	.525

Ordonez just has a better overall game than Dye, and he's been more durable to boot. The White Sox just purchased a cheap veteran to replace him. It's not a move to improve the team, it's a move to save money.

How that money will now be spent is the question. As I often wonder in these situations, why don't the White Sox have a 22 year old in the minors who can step in and hit as well as Dye? That would give Ken Williams another $10 million to put to good use. It seems better long term planning would have the Sox in that position.

Troy Glaus is now a Diamondback.

The 6-foot-5, 245-pound Glaus, 28, will be given a $4 million signing bonus and a salary of $8.25 million this season. He'll make $9.25 million in 2006, $10.75 million in 2007 and $12.75 million in 2008.

None of the money will be deferred.

I'm a big Troy Glaus fan. When healthy, he has a great eye for the strike zone and terrific power. His seasonal age in 2005 will be 28, still near the prime of his career. But that's a lot of money to pay someone who hasn't had a great season since 2001. Glaus found himself late in 2002 (8 HR in 82 AB in September), helping the Angels to the Wild Card and then the World Series title (WS MVP).

Still the Diamondbacks are putting a lot of stock in their medical reports.

As for Glaus, Diamondbacks physicians gave him an extensive physical in the Valley on Monday, and reportedly everything checked out fine with his shoulder.

It wasn't immediately known whether any of his salary is to be based on games-played or at-bat provisions, as were all previous offers made by the club to Sexson.

I'm happy for Troy nonetheless, and I'll be rooting for him to have a fine season. After all, Troy's worst years would still be above average for an NL third baseman.

I'm very surprised the Blue Jays did not offer salary arbitration to Carlos Delgado. Carlos is a great hitter and a sought after free-agent. I wouldn't think, given the low-ball offer the Blue Jays made to Delgado, that Carlos would even think of coming back to Toronto. Ricciardi must have seen a risk that he didn't want to take.

I'll venture that Ricciardi believes that the offers for Delgado's services will be lower than Carlos wants. In that case, he may be better off with an arbitrator. He can argue from his $19 million salary of last year, and end up with much more than the $6 million the Blue Jays are offering. I guess the draft picks just aren't worth that risk.

Update: Rich in the comments suggests that there is minimum amount teams have to offer in arbitration, 80% of the previous year's salary. However, page 67 of the CBA says that doesn't apply to free agent arbitration.

If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI, provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI.

The Phillies are puming up John Lieber's pocketbook, signing him to a three-year, $21 million dollar contract. The Phillies seem to be going with an age movement, bringing in Kenny Lofton and Rheal Cormier in addition to Lieber. They're also talking about Chris Hammond for the bullpen.

I don't believe Lieber is a bad signing. Seven million a year is a reasonable amount of money for a pitcher, and Lieber does one thing extremely well; he doesn't walk batters. He would have pitched the Yankees into the World Series if it hadn't been for one great AB by Jason Varitek.

Still the Phillies seem headed in the wrong direction. They're adding expensive old players, instead of developing young, inexpensive talent that can be signed cheaply for the long term.

Al Leiter returns home to play for the Marlins again. Al has had an increase in walks and a falloff in strikeouts the last two years. His strength in 2004 was that when batters made contact, nothing much happened. He allowed a paltry .218 BA to opponent batters in 2004.

He's not going to be the ace of the staff, but the Marlins don't really need an ace. He'll be a good fourth starter for them, and I wouldn't be surprised if he taught Dontrelle Willis a few tricks. It's a good signing.

I don't know how many of you are fans of the cartoon Daria, but this story made me think of one of my favorite bits:

(in English class)

Jamie - (slowly and flatly) "For never was a story of more woe than this of Juliet and her... Romeo."

Daria - Thank you, Joey, Jeffy or Jamie. Laurence Olivier, in his present state, couldn't have done better.

Jamie - Cool!

Jeffy - What does "woe" mean?

Daria - It like the feeling you'd get if the Super Bowl were preempted by Antiques Roadshow.

Joey - Whoa!

Daria - See?

That's the feeling I get when I see that the Yankees have signed Tony Womack to play second base. The Sporting News headline is even worse; Yankees acquire new leadoff man. This is a player with a career .319 OBA, who had his best year getting on base at age 34. I would think the Yankees are smart enough to bat Womack ninth, but you never know.

This deal really makes me start to believe the Yankees streak of dominance is over. If they are trying to save money, a minor league 2nd bagger could play as well as Womack at a fraction of the cost. The Yankees need to get younger. They need to start bring along fresh young talent as they did in the mid-90's. If I'm a fan of Baltimore or Toronto, I'm very pleased with this signing. If I'm rooting for the Red Sox, I'm estatic. The Yankees may have returned to their losing ways of the 1980's, signing washed up players based on their reputations. It just shows that nothing lasts forever.

One caveat; this deal has not been officially announced by the team.

Paul Wilson has re-signed with the Cincinnati Reds.

Wilson signed with the Reds as a free agent after he went 6-12 for Tampa Bay in 2002. He has prospered at Great American Ball Park, where the tall infield grass helps ground-ball pitchers.

That's an understatement where Wilson is concerned. Last season, he had a 3.32 ERA in Cincinnati, 5.77 on the road. The hits get through away from Great American Ballpark. He allowed 7.8 hits per 9 at home in 2004, 11.5 on the road. I wonder if the Reds will once again engineer the rotation to get Wilson most of his starts at home?

Nomar Garciaparra has signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs.

The five-time All-Star shortstop hit .308 with nine homers and 41 RBIs with Boston and Chicago last season. Garciaparra said at the end of the season that he'd consider coming back to the Cubs, but he wanted to test the free agent market for the first time in his career.

It seems to me that Nomar didn't find the free agent market to his liking. I suspect that he hopes he'll have a healthy, productive season that will raise his value for next year's market.

The Red Sox have offered a number of players arbitration, some with an interesting caveat:

By offering arbitration, the Red Sox would receive amateur draft picks as compensation for losing top free agents.

"Some of them were offered arbitration with the understanding they won't accept arbitration," general manager Theo Epstein said.

He refused to say whether Martinez was in that group but said the mere offer gives the team and the players more time to gather information that could affect the decision.

"That simply extends our window," Epstein said. "Sometimes making good decisions takes time."

I wonder what the players who agree not to accept arbitration get in return? Some minimum guarantee that they'll have a contract if no one else is interested in them? If nothing else, the Sox will be well compensated with draft picks if they lose a number of these players.

Today's the deadline for offering free agents arbitration. I'm not sure why this elaborate dance is still in place. A team has to decide to offer a player arbitration. The player then has a couple of weeks to decide if he wants to accept. If the player accepts, he's on the team and the two sides work out a contract or they go to an arbitrator. If the player declines, the player is a free agent, and can sign with anybody, but the team losing a player gets a draft pick or two. He also can't sign with his own club after Jan. 8th. I know the compensation is a big deal; the Athletics use this wisely. They're happy to let most free agents go so they can keep restocking the farm system. That gives them a pool of cheap talent at their disposal. And I know the owners believe it lowers free agent costs, but do they really factor in the cost of the loss of draft picks?

It seems to me that it would be better for all parties if there was a real free market in these players. It would mean more bidding (good for the players), but it would also mean that rebuilding teams could sign people short term to keep the team interesting while they're rebuilding, and not have to worry about draft picks.

A perfect example is Richie Sexon. The Diamondbacks are going to offer Sexson arbitration, mostly becuase they know he won't accept it. Whoever ends up signing Richie will lose a first round pick. I keep hearing the Mariners want Sexson, but they're an old team that can ill afford to give up draft picks. The draft pick inclusion will hurt Sexson by driving down his price, and hurt the Mariners by driving up the overall cost of the deal. Sexson can't be a stop gap for them; they have to hope he revitalizes the franchise.

The San Francisco Giants have signed closer Armando Benitez to a 3-year contract.

With some creative financing, Sabean and assistant Ned Colletti hooked a 6-foot-4, 229-pound Marlin. It was a done deal because Benítez and agent Mike Powers, like Vizquel, backloaded the contract to give the Giants payroll flexibility.

"The contract is spread over five years, including the signing bonus," Colletti explained. "The 2005 season is the lowest point of the contract."

Negotiations progressed swiftly, accelerated by Hermanson's contract demands for a two-year deal in the $6 million range. Apparently realizing a solid closer was the missing link this season, the Giants didn't take the easy way out.

"It was pretty obvious why we went in this direction," Sabean said, calling Benítez "a dominant force." With Vizquel and Benítez in the fold, Sabean said the team "can address what we need in the outfield and lineup."

I'm not a big Benitez fan. I still remember the game at Yankee Stadium where he hit Tino Martinez after giving up a HR to Bernie Williams. The Orioles were in the process of blowing a 5-1 lead. It was 5-4 with two men on in the bottom of the 8th when Armando came in to try to get Bernie Williams. Bernie took him deep for a 7-5 lead. That was bad pitching. But then he shows his utter stupidity by plunking Martinez! I just wouldn't want someone with that type of judgement as my closer. It doesn't seem to bother the Giants, however.

Benítez comes with a modicum of risk. He was on the disabled list in August with a sore elbow and had to pass a physical examination Tuesday in Florida before his signing was official. And, despite a career 2.85 ERA, his past has been spotty.

Benítez blew key games with the Mets in 2003 and virtually was booed out of New York. He also pitched with the Yankees and Seattle Mariners before signing with Florida as a free agent. He also has had problems during the postseason, posting four saves in 10 chances and a 3.56 ERA in 28 games.

"He was more comfortable in the Florida atmosphere," Sabean said, explaining Benítez's career season. "I think he'll have the same atmosphere here, in a pitcher's ballpark. I'm not going to hold his past against him.

Well, Shea is a pitcher's park and he wasn't comfortable there. Maybe Sabean should hold his past against him a litte bit. Especially his recent past which has seen a drop in Benitez's K per 9 two years in a row. He still strikes out more than enough batters to be effective. If the slide continues, however, I wonder if he'll still be effective through the length of the contract.

It seems the Mets, not the Yankees are the team that's bidding up Boston for Pedro's services.

The Red Sox reportedly have offered Martinez a two-year, $25.5 million contract with a vesting option for 2007 that would kick in if the right-hander remains healthy. The Mets countered late Sunday with a three-year guaranteed contract worth approximately $38 million with a vesting option for a fourth year that could make package worth $50 million.

Perhaps waiting on an offer from the Yankees, the free-agent ace isn't close to making a decision on where to sign, a person close to Martinez said Tuesday on condition of anonymity.

If you're spend a lot of money on a free agent, it might as well be on the best. While Martinez would not make the Mets winners by himself, he'd do a lot of good for the team from Queens. He'd sell out the place every time he pitched. He'd get the press talking about the Mets again. And he'd be very good in Shea, a park that has been very kind to strikeout pitchers in its history. And he would make the Mets more competitive. If he can put the team 15 to 20 games over .500 in his starts, playing .500 the rest of the way puts NY in playoff contention. It doesn't take much good luck from that point to put a team over the top.

A healthy Pedro and Piazza can go a long way. Let's see if Omar can pull it off, and then let's see if he can put enough decent players around them to win.

The Twins are not going to be able to sign Brad Radke for $7 million a year. As the article points out:

Radke's agent, Ron Simon, wouldn't discuss the terms he's seeking from the Twins, but the market for Radke figures to start on the high side of the $22.5 million, three-year deal Kris Benson, a 30-year-old right-hander with a losing record over a six-year career and a recent history of injuries, signed Monday with the New York Mets.

Radke does one thing very well, and that's keeping his walk totals low. You have to earn your way on vs. Radke. Organizations like the Red Sox and the Yankkees know the value of that stat for pitchers, and will pay appropriately. Benson has good walk numbers, but still walks over twice as many as Brad. The Twins, in my estimation, are going to need to get closer to $10 million per year to be competitive for Radke's services.

I had doubted the existence of collusion over the last couple of seasons. I assumed that smarter management and a flood of free agents had worked to help fix the value of players. So I was surprised to see this article and this form.

But there sure were a lot of agents who thought they knew it when they saw it over the last two winters.

So this offseason, Bud Selig and his friends at Major League Baseball have agreed to answer those collusion allegations by doing something 100 percent unprecedented:

Any time a team requests "advice" from MLB on how much to offer any free agent -- whether it's Carlos Beltran or Adam Hyzdu -- the team will no longer be allowed to receive that guidance via phone, cell phone, carrier pigeon or even masked courier.

Instead, MLB's Labor Relations Office now will have to dole out that advice in writing, via something called a "Free Agent Advice Form." And eventually, the players' union will get to inspect a copy of every one of those forms.

Why is the league giving advice? Aren't these teams supposed to be competing against each other? Aren't they supposed to hire people to figure these things out?

So over the last two seasons, clubs could just call up MLB and ask, "How much is this guy worth?" Yes, I'd say that was collusion. You'd be silly as a club not to do it. So even though the teams are not supposed to share information, they would be idiots not to ask for data that's available. (By the way, it's not clear if the clubs are charged for this, or if it's just a service of being part of the club.)

My general feeling is that MLB should not be in the business of giving clubs advice on the price of free agents. Part of building a winning club should be good management that knows the value of a player. However, if MLB wants to get into this business to save the clubs money by centralizing the gathering of this information, then it should be available to every club, the players, the agents and the general public. The the players would know what the league thinks they are worth, and can negotiate with clubs, giving them reasons why they deserve more. Either no information or transparent information.

Tony Massarotti looks at the Red Sox positioning in their bid to sign a catcher for 2005. It seems their top choice after Varitek is Damian Miller.

Should the Sox fail to sign Varitek, it remains unclear what their options are beyond Miller. Among the possibilities are free agents Mike Matheny, who played in St. Louis this year, and Brian Schneider, who played in Montreal.

If the Sox sign Miller, Matheny or Schneider, their intentions would be to use that player as their starter. That would leave open the possibility of re-signing backup Doug Mirabelli [stats, news], who, like Varitek, also became a free agent at the end of the season.

The Sox are in a rough position vis-a-vis Varitek. He's a very good player and a fan favorite. He's also 32, and a long term expensive contract is not a good idea for a 32-year-old catcher. But baseball contracts are often rewards for past performance, rather than payment for future services. (That's one of the reasons for the salary inflation prior to this decade.) After all, Varitek was an integral part of the Red Sox winning the World Series. Maybe, in this one case,
Boston should bite the bullet and give Jason the big contract, and just think of it as a bonus for past services. The Sox have a history of shabby treatment of catchers (Fisk, Gedman). Overpaying Varitek would make up for some of that.

Feel free to disagree with this point. I'm not sure I really believe it myself. Comments?

If yesterday's signings by the Exposés are an indication of the direction of the franchise, Peter Angelos doesn't need to worry about the competition. The Montreal/Washington franchise inked third baseman Vinny Castilla and shortstop Christian Guzman to play the left side of the infield.

"Guzman and Castilla will be above-average defensively on the left side of the infield and that's important," interim general manager Jim Bowden said. "These two guys have been to the postseason and that's important, especially for this franchise that has a lot of players that haven't been to the postseason."

Sorry, Jim. I understand wanting good defense. But post-season experience as the second reason to sign someone? Sounds like an excuse for not having the money to sign anyone good.

The Expos had made an initial offer to third baseman Corey Koskie, but he was asking for too many years and too much money.

"[Koskie's people] came back with a conversation of what they needed and what they were thinking. [It was] enough so that that we wouldn't be able to afford the length or the amount they were are probably going to end up with. That's why we went with Castilla," Bowden said.

Please take a look at Castilla's career. There's no reason to believe he can get on base outside of Colorado. There's no reason to believe he can hit for power outside of Colorado. Are there no light hitting defensive wizards in the minors that could be had for a few hundred thousand dollars a year? It's a waste of the future owner's money.

Guzman isn't as bad a choice. He's an out machine, but he is a very good defensive shortstop, leading the AL in defensive win shares last year. He's also 26, so the Exposés will have him during the prime of his career. At a bit over $4 million a year, he's not being overpaid. Maybe Frank Robinson can teach him to be selective at the plate. His batting average is fine for a shortstop, his power is fine for a shortstop but he needs to find a way on base more. Otherwise, with the pitcher batting, Montreal/Washington will have three very easy outs in their lineup. The defense is going to need to be really good to win games.

Aaron Gleeman has more.

Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Washington Post looks at the free agents the Orioles are persuing this winter.

Beattie was reluctant to say whether the Orioles would ask Sexson to work out, saying the Orioles haven't made a decision on whether they would pursue Sexson. But should they enter the bidding, Beattie said Baltimore would need evidence that Sexson was healthy.

The Orioles haven't made an offer to any of their targets, which include first baseman Carlos Delgado, outfielder Magglio Ordoñez and pitcher Carl Pavano. Beattie expects the negotiations for those players to move slowly.

It looks like the Orioles are going after the right players. Their first basemen did not hit well last year as a group, nor did their outfielders. A healthy combination of Ordonez/Sexson would add a great deal of punch to that lineup.

Joe Torre happened to run into Carl Pavano in Florida over the weekend, and it seems Carl is very interested in joining the Bronx Bombers. The article also list the Yankees offseason priorities for pitching acquistions:

The Yankees have prioritized Pavano, Al Leiter, Eric Milton, Brad Radke and Jaret Wright as the free-agent pitchers who interest them. Milton is most likely to sign with the Yankees (or somewhere else) first, for as a Type C free agent, he will not require compensation - in the form of amateur draft picks - to Milton's old team, the Phillies.

It's pretty clear from this list that the Yankees believe they need a lefty or two in the starting rotation. Milton and Leiter, of course, came up through the Yankees system. What's also interesting is that Pedro Martinez is not on the list.

Omar Vizquel becomes the first free agent to switch teams as he signs a 3-year deal with the San Francisco Giants. The contract will pay Omar about $4 million per year.

Omar's career path reminds me a lot of Ozzie Smith. He started off as a poor offensive player with the Mariners. After his trade to the Indians, he developed a good eye for the strikezone, and in many seasons after that had OBA's good enough to bat at the top of the order. But that hasn't been true in 3 of the last 4 seasons. And while he rebounded in 2004, I would bet that at age 38 (in 2005) Vizquel's best offensive days are behind him.

Of course, the Giants may be getting him for defense. However, there are signs that Omar is not the defensive player he once was. He ranked 8th in the AL in defensive win shares for shortstops at 4.5. Not terrible, but not gold glove caliber either. And there's no reason to believe Vizquel will get better.

Not only that, but Devi Cruz, who is signed for a mere $800,000, is just about as good as Vizquel in terms of defensive win shares! If all the Giants were looking for is defense, Cruz would probably do as well for a lot less money.

Vizquel could be a good one-year stop gap for the Giants. Paying him for three years is a waste of money, and just delays San Francisco from developing a good, young middle infielder who'll be there for the long run. It wasn't a good move.

This made me laugh.

Houston Astros free agent center fielder Carlos Beltran is seeking a 10-year contract, his agent told a television station on Thursday.

I think this should read Scott Boras is looking to gaurantee his income for the next ten years.

And it's probably not going to happen. Why? Insurance. Insurance companies will no longer cover baseball contracts longer than three years. That doesn't mean that Beltran can't get a long term contract. However, since the risk in such a contract won't be borne by insurers, it will have to be carried by Beltran and the team signing him. That means either less money or less guarantees.

On top of that, as good as Beltran is, he's not Mays or Mantle. For his career, his OBAs are good, not great. His slugging percentages are good, not great. He is a marvelous center fielder, which does count for a lot. But he was 27 in 2004, which is pretty near the peak of a player's performance. He's not going to get much better than he was in 2004. So why give a long term contract to someone with a career .353 OBA and .490 slugging percentage unless the price is low?

My guess is that Beltran may be much better off going for a short term (3 year) contract. With all the risk involved, my seat of the pants guess is that Beltran would be worth $10 million a year for 10 years. However, if the risk of a three year contract could be passed off to insurers, he could easily get $50 million over the period of a three year contract.

To put it another way, most organizations can't bid on Carlos over 10 years. So to get a lot of money, Boras has to depend on someone being stupid and over paying (A-Rod with Texas, e.g.). But if Boras goes for a three-year deal, then many organizations can bid because they can cover the risk. And the more bidding, the higher the price will go. The risk to Beltran is that he gets injured and has to live the rest of his life on $20 million he's taken home from his $50 million contract. The upside is that if he has three great years, he can sign for even more and make in six years what he would have made in 10.

These negotiations will make an interesting winter.

I'm not sure why the Giants aren't showing interest in Rich Aurilia. Cruz and Perez are no great shakes at shortstop, and if Aurilia really is coming out of his slump, he could give the Giants a further offensive boost. For the price, it seems worth the risk.

Just how smart was Arte Moreno? Just how dumb were the rest of the owners? There should have been a bidding war for his talent, if for no other reason that to assure the team that got him paid for it. But no, he might be hurt, we really don't have the money. So the Angels got a $20 million ballplayer for $14 million a year, leaving them extra money to put some good, young cheap talent on their roster. Moreno saw an opportunity to buy low, when everyone else just saw something they couldn't afford. But the reality is that any major league team could have had Guerrero for no more than $16 million, and that would still be a bargain.

It looks like Mondesi has signed with the Angels, but I don't understand this:

The former All-Star and Gold Glover said he got a $1.75 million contract for the rest of the season. He said he will make his debut in center field for the banged-up AL West leaders Sunday at Chicago.

"I'm very pleased with the agreement I reached with the Angels," Mondesi said.

Angels spokesman Tim Mead said he could neither confirm nor deny Mondesi's account.

Is he not confirming that Mondesi is an Angel, or just the terms of his contract?

Update: Jon Weisman has more on the Mondesi story. I have not been following it, I must admit, and didn't realize that Mondesi lied to get out of his contract. Jon brings up an interesting scenario:

What has happened this month with Mondesi and the Pirates is truly rare. A team and a player can essentially agree, or be duped into agreeing, that they are a bad match and initiate a no-fault divorce.

When you think about it, it seems harmless to both parties (although it might not be to the team that ends up paying Mondesi, a player of equal parts talent and flaw, too much money). But think how often this happens. Pretty much never.

And now, perhaps, a significant precedent has been set.

Consider if a talented but underpaid player decides he isn't satisfied with his contract. Say, I don't know, Eric Gagne. Free agency is a couple of years away. But Gagne announces that he's worried about a foreign invasion of Canada and heads home to protect his loved ones - though everyone knows this is a phony excuse.

Do the Dodgers suspend him - a suspension they might have to hold through the end of the 2006 season, when he becomes a free agent? Are they forced to renegotiate Gagne's deal then and there? Or do they decide that it just ain't worth fighting with a player that no longer wants to be here, and terminate his deal - allowing him to sign for big bucks with another team on the spot.

I believe there are more options than Jon has mentioned here. For example, Gagne can be traded. I remember Billy Sample telling me once that it was fairly easy to force a trade by your actions. Trading Gagne simply makes him someone else's problem, but he's not out of his contract, and at some point the club can take action against him for that breach.

The other thing, in the case of wealthy clubs, is that they can indeed sit on the contract. I don't really know if Gagne can afford to sit out a year of baeball. It's one thing to practice pitching; it's another to actually do it. So if the Dodgers were to call his bluff and sit on the contract, Gagne is taking the chance that his skills might diminish in a year and a half of inactivity.

Actually, I wonder if Mondesi is really going to get away with this. As this comment on Jon's site points out:

I would think that MLB in the form of the owners has an actionable tort here. They should be complaining to the commissioner that Moorad and Mondesi, by simple virtue of soliciting bids for a new contract, are invalidating the breach of the original contract. After all, if he was going to be able to play three weeks after he went on leave, there are negotiated procedures in place to protect his and the team's rights. If he gets away with this, then every team is going to be hit with Operation Shutdown (I know that was different but the game's the same), and this case will give the player precedent to get his contract terminated.

ESPN and Will Carroll are reporting that Greg Maddux will sign with the Cubs today. He'll earn $24 million over three years, with the third year dependent on meeting certain performance criteria.

Maddux as your fourth or fifth starter is so cool. The Cubs could even pitch him once a week if they wanted, to give him plenty of rest. A fine move at a reasonable price.

For the last couple of days I'm been hearing about how pitching wins. The Boston fans who didn't get A-Rod talk about how the Yankees don't have the pitching they've had in the past, so Boston has a chance to beat them. I heard Joe Torre say something similar on Countdown with Keith Olbermann (the transcript is not yet available). So now here's the test. The Cubs, 1-5, have about the best pitching staff in the majors. What happens if the Cubs pitch great all year, but don't win? Will someone finally realize you need both pitching and offense to win?

One other thought. The big movers in the offseason have been the Cubs, the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Phillies, four teams that came up just short of their goals. That's the great thing about losing a close one; it really makes you focus on what went wrong and how to fix it. I think all four of these teams improved themselves, and that should make for a fun season.

It looks like the Yankees are trying to sign Travis Lee. I would take Lee in a second over Tony Clark. However, first base is not the problem. The problem is the team has no infield defense. The need to find a glove wizard who can play 2nd or short to back up the rangeless duo in the middle. Lee is not the answer to the Yankees defensive problems.

I saw reading the transactions column today that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed Fred McGriff to a minor league contract. However, the Rays don't think McGriff has much of a chance to make the team. According to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, this was a courtesy signing:

With McGriff nine home runs shy of the 500 mark and unable to land a job elsewhere, the Rays extended the Tampa native an unusual courtesy, and essentially did him a favor, by inviting him to spring training even though he has little chance to make their team.

"It is unusual," general manager Chuck LaMar said. "I felt obligated. We are the local team, Fred was born and raised here, he's had a tremendous major-league career and he has struggled to get a job this offseason.

"I felt it was our organization's responsibility, and mine, to give Fred an opportunity to come in. Stranger things have happened. If we have a rash of injuries, it's possible he'd make our club and get his home runs here. There's a better chance he'll come in and show other teams he's still capable of playing this game and hopefully go on and set this mark. ... It's a very important one for him and we'll be proud to be able to say we helped him achieve that goal."

Is nine HR really going to make a difference in this player's Hall of Fame credentials? As John Romano writes in the same paper:

The shame is his numbers may not yet add up. Oh, you could point out that of the 20 players with more career home runs, all who are eligible are in the Hall of Fame. And of the 33 players with more RBIs, all but one who are eligible are in the Hall of Fame.

But times are changing and standards are expanding. Numbers that once seemed automatic for Cooperstown may soon be subject to debate.

If McGriff is borderline today, another nine home runs could help to change perceptions.

I don't think McGriff is a Hall of Famer, 500 HR or not. The problem, as I look at his career, is that McGriff petered out after age 30, just as offense was taking off. While players like Tony Gwynn and Paul O'Neill took advantage of offensive surge to play better in their 30's than their 20's, McGriff's slugging numbers went down in this time period. From 1987 to 1994, McGriff slugged over .500 seven times. From 1995 on, when it was easier to slug .500, he only reached the mark three times. He had laid the foundation for a Hall of Fame career in his 20's, but didn't complete the job in his 30's.

Peter White at Mariners Musings sees that Ellis Burks used the internet to help him decide on the Red Sox, and wonders what sources Ellis used.

audio post powered by audblog

According to the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers will have a press conference at 1 PM EST to announce the signing of Pudge Rodriguez.

The signing will help the team. I-Rod posted 23 win shares last year vs. 6 for Inge and Hinch. That should add six games to the win column. The Tigers are paying a lot of money for Ivan, but they need to do something to get the fans back, and Ivan is fun to watch. He's not going to make them a contender over night, and he may be gone by the time the Tigers are rebuilt. But I sure love to see him throw out runners, and I hope Tiger fans will too.

The Rockies have signed Shawn "The Wilting Man" Estes to a minor league contract. It shouldn't be too hot for him there.

Estes' specialty is the ground ball, which will come in handy at homer-friendly Coors Field if he makes the team. Since the start of the 1997 season, he has induced a major league-best 1.24 ground balls per nine innings.

In an interview with Basebal Musings last year, Bill James notes that Whitey Herzog thought sinker ballers were the right pitchers for Coors Field. We'll see if it works out.

Here's a speculative story about Ivan Rodriguez possibly going back to the Marlins:

Rodriguez, though, would have to wait until May 1 before signing with the Marlins, unless there is an unprecedented -- and highly unconventional -- sign-and-trade transaction involving a second team.

I don't think it will happen before May 1. The union proved with the veto of the A-Rod deal that they won't let the CBA be violated, and my bet is they will see a sign and trade as a clear violation of the CBA, and stiff I-Rod, too. (That would leave a month to stiff E-Rod, O-Rod, U-Rod and Sometimes Y-Rod.)

Of course, the Mariners may be interested in the catcher as well, and they are a lot more likely to win than the Tigers.

Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press believes the Tigers are being used to get Ivan Rodriguez a better deal with the Cubs.

Indications are that the Tigers are close to securing the guts and glue of the World Series champion Florida Marlins, but you still can't help but suspect they're little more than a marionette twisting at the mercy of an agent bent on using the Tigers' desperation for credibility as a tool for squeezing more money from a more desirable suitor.

It's not a matter of trusting owner Mike Ilitch, but rather a question of not trusting Scott Boras.

How do you know when an agent is lying? When his lips are moving.

From a competitive standpoint, there is no logical reason for Rodriguez to come to Detroit. Has he suddenly grown tired of champagne showers and championship ring fittings after one year? There isn't a hallucinogen available that could make the Tigers' rotation resemble the Cubs' -- the other suitor in the Pudge sweepstakes.

On the other hand, MLBScoop believes the deal is going to happen.

The city of Detroit is hungry for a baseball star, and Pudge, the perrenial all-star who led his team to the World Series, certainly fits the bill. In fact, the Detroit News reports that Rodriguez is becoming a bit like Elvis among the city's baseball fans. "We had a couple of callers saying they saw him at the Hard Rock Cafe,” said Mark Wilson of WKRK 97.1 to the paper.

Stay tuned.

Sidney Ponson will once again roost in Baltimore. He's earning an extra $1.5 million over the three-year deal the Orioles offered him last summer, and the Orioles have three more players in their organization. Seems like that's one trade that worked out very well for the O's.

Update: A comment points out that Moss is a free agent, so the O's only get two more players out of the deal. Still not bad.

ESPN.com is reporting that the Cubs have made an offer to Greg Maddux. Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs are feeling pressure to match the Astros moves.

I don't know that signing Maddux really matches signing Clemens, unless you are taking the point of view that he's returning home. Clemens posted 15 win shares last year, Maddux 11. It's the first time Maddux was below 15 wins shares since 1987. Maddux set a career high in HR allowed last year, and unlike Clemens, his strikeouts have really fallen off. He'd probably be the 4th or 5th starter on the Cubs, but 10 or 11 wins shares from the 4th starter isn't too bad.

As Yogi once said, "It's not over 'til it's over." Roger Clemens has signed with the Houston Astros. I'm surprised it's only for $5 million dollars. That says to me he really wants to pitch for Houston, rather than being mercenary. Jose de Jesus Ortiz has more in the Houston Chronicle:

McLane gave the hard-throwing righthander the parameters of a one-year contract offer on Dec. 23, and he worked out the rest of details on the deal with agents Randy and Alan Hendricks. After that, Clemens gave his decision to the Hendricks, who hammered out the deal.

"He told me he had decided to play and to get a deal done, so we did on Sunday," Randy Hendricks said. "I think a big factor was the outpouring of affection from the Astros fans all over Texas. His family is supportive and the Astros have been terrific throughout the process. Ultimately, the desire to help the hometown team was what made the decision (and Andy being here was extremely important as well)."

Clemens, 41, will now try to add to his 310 career victories. He will join Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller to throw at the National League Central champion Chicago Cubs' talented rotation of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano.

Clemens was just a few strikeouts short of Steve Carlton for 2nd place on the all-time list. I wonder if that entered into his thinking at all?

Clemens is still a good pitcher. His strikeout rate was below 9.0 per 9 last year, but is still high at 8.1. He did allow a career high 24 HR last year, which won't be helped by Minute Maid Park. He's declining, but he brings 15 win shares to the team, which is five more than any Astros starter had last year. A good signing at a good price.

Update: Michele, as usual, has strong thoughts about Clemens. :-)

Will Carroll reported yesterday, as did the Houston Chronicle, that a some kind of deal is in place between the Astros and Clemens. Will thinks it's done, the Chronicle thinks it's done between the Astros and Clemens' agent, but Roger has to decide if he wants to play or retire.

If I were a normal, mortal Astro, part of this deal would bother me:

It is expected that Clemens will not be required to travel with the team if he is not pitching in a specific series and that the Astros will attempt to give him extra rest and to allow him to pitch at home more than on the road.

I think the extra rest is a great idea, a perfect way to use an aging but good starter. I detest the special treatment of not traveling with the team, however. I've heard my whole life that there is no I in team (although there is one in Timo). If Roger is going to play, he should be part of the team, and not just a side show.

It turns out the Marlins (thans to the commentors who pointing out this story) were not the stealth bidder for Vlad Guerrero. The Angels stepped in and grabbed Vlad (link requires registration) out from under the O's and the Mets.

In a stunning coup that establishes the Angels as World Series contenders once again and new owner Arte Moreno as one of baseball's biggest spenders, the team agreed to terms Saturday night with star outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, several sources said.

Although the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets publicly pursued Guerrero in recent days, a National League executive told The Times on Saturday he was informed by a high-ranking Met official that Guerrero had accepted a five-year, $70-million proposal from the Angels.

I'm really starting to like Arte Moreno. He saw a championship team in Anaheim that was undervalued and gobbled it up. He sees a franchise player not attracting any attention and swoops in to close the deal. Moreno wants to win, and is willing to spend the money to get there. (Steinbrenner without the bombast?)

The Angels will move Erstad to first base and player an outfield of Anderson, Guillen and Guerrero. I assume Salmon moves into the DH role full time, after splitting 2003 between that spot and the outfield. The main problem here is Erstad at first base. If you are moving the 2000 Erstad there, that's great. But right now, he's a first baseman who hits like a shortstop. He has not gotten on base nor hit for power since his big 2000 season. With Erstad's defense still top notch, he should have some trade value, and finding someone to play first who can tear the cover off the ball shouldn't be that difficult.

I woudn't be printing the World Series banners for the Angels just yet, but Anaheim fans should be very excited that they picked up Guerrero and that they have an owner who wants to win, and unlike Gene Autry, knows value in a player when he sees it.

Update: Peter Schmuck (I don't have a joke here, I just like writing Schmuck) finds the bright side of the Orioles not signing Guerrero.

Looks like the Marlins have been a stelth bidder in the Vlad Guerrero derby.

The World Series champion Marlins have made a one-year offer for more than $10 million, and Guerrero's first choice is believed to be Florida, according to Saturday's Newark Star-Ledger.

"I've heard that he would like to go to Florida if the money was appropriate," an unnamed general manager told the Star-Ledger. "My personal opinion is that if Florida came up with a $13 million or $14 million deal, he'd go there."

I'm starting to wonder if Vlad is waiting for the LA sale to be final to see if the Dodgers want to bid on him.

Rich Aurilia has signed with the Seattle Mariners. It's a one year deal worth 3.5 million. Gone is Carlos Guillen, traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and a minor league shortstop, which appears to make Seattle pretty deep at the position. Aurilia is a better player than Guillen; how much better depends upon whether you believe 2002-2003 represents a real falloff in Rich's abilitites, or a falloff due to injury and eye problems. If it's the latter, and Aurilia is healthy this year, the Mariners got a bargain. If not, they are only out $3 million and have to look for a SS again next year.

Meanwhile, I think the Tigers added a couple of wins. Santiago earned five wins shares last year, Guillen 12. It's a small upgrade, but enough small ones and the Tigers at least can be respectable in 2004.

Update: Shawn at The Greatest Game isn't crazy about this deal from Seattle's point of view.

John Beard sends a link to this story. It seems Houston has offered Roger Clemens a 1-year contract, although the terms are not disclosed. Clemens seemed pretty sincere about his retirement, so I haven't been taking these stories too seriously. However, if he's offered a salary that's in excess of $10 million, that's difficult to turn down. We'll see.

What I also found interesting in the article was the effect Andy Pettitte has had on the Astros economy:

Clemens also would be a major drawing card, which is why McLane doesn't mind raising the payroll despite losing $15 million last year.

The Astros received a major boost in ticket sales after signing Pettitte away from the Yankees on Dec. 11, prompting vice president of ticket sales John Sorrentino to hire two more employees to cope with the demand.

As one president of a National League club predicted at the winter meetings last month, the Astros can expect mostly sellouts if Clemens joins the franchise.

Marquee players bringing in the fans. In July of 2002, I talked about this in two posts (this short one and a longer follow up. Sometimes it's good to spend a little more money if you think it will put some fannies in the stands.

The Orioles (all though which Oriole is not clear) are saying that they are close to signing Vlad Guerrero. I wonder if rumors of a Mets deal spurred them to action. It also looks like they are going to grab Rafael Palmeiro, I assume as a DH. Palmeiro is one of those players whose careers refuse to die. He did fall off offensively in 2003, but still managed a .500 slugging percentage and nearly a .360 OBA. I'll take that from my DH. The Orioles are looking more and more like contenders. For the first time in a while, it could be an interesting four team race in the AL East.

Somehow, I missed this yesterday, but Roberto Alomar did sign with the Diamondbacks. The DBacks got him for a ridiculously low price of $1 million, with $350,000 deferred without interest until 2009. At that price it was absolutely worth the risk.

There are reports that the Mets have become interested in signing Vlad Guerrero. According to this report in the Washington Post, the Mets are offering fewer years than the Orioles, but a higher average salary:

The report, citing three major league sources, said the Mets' offer would be for far lower than the Orioles' offer. However, Guerrero is believed to prefer the National League as well as a city, such as New York, with a large population from his native Dominican Republic.

One of the nice things about free agency from a player's point of view is that you are able to set values on such things as playing close to home, playing in a big city vs. a small city and so forth. Of course, there should be more teams bidding on Vlad, so maybe a short contract is in his best interest to prove the back is fine, and then he can get more money later. Of course, this hasn't worked for Ivan Rodriguez.

Ivan Rodriguez also is without a team , overplaying his hand with both the Marlins and Orioles, and there's talk of him accepting another one-year deal and hoping he's more favorably appraised next winter, as if he didn't do enough with the World Series-champion Marlins in 2003.

The Royals have reached a deal with Juan Gonzalez. He'll get $4 million this year with the chance to earn another $2 million based on performance. It's a great deal for the Royals; if Juan stays healthy and plays up to his ability, it will go down as one of the great signings of the year.

There is some buzz that the Diamondbacks are going to sign Robby Alomar. It also looks like Roberto will earn less than the $8 million dollars he was payed last year. Over Christmas, I wondered why there wasn't much buzz about Alomar:

The last two season he's put up OBA's 40 points below his career average, with no power. He's a free agent likely looking for megabucks, and teams are now smart enough to know that he's a bad investment at eight figures, and even at high seven figures.

It looks like his salary will be in the low seven figures. At that price, it's worth the risk to see if he can come back to somewhere close to his previous form. If he can put up a .370-.380 OBA for the DBacks, it will be worth the investment.

Darren Viola points out to me that the KC Royals are close to signing Juan Gonzalez.

Other clubs, however, still are in the bidding, agent Alan Nero said from Chicago.

"We actually started with about six, and we've got about three left," Nero said. "But I would clearly say that Kansas City is the front-runner at the moment."

Again, so much for collusion. Seems like this is a fairly healthy persuit of a good free agent.

I think it's a good pickup for the Royals. When healthy, Juan is a tremendous power hitter. He's 14th all time in AB per HR (14.98), and had 24 HR in 1/2 a season last year. If you bat him behind Beltran and Sweeney, he's going to have a lot of RBI, if he stays healthy. He's played 1/2 seasons two years in a row now, so I'd want an excellent result from a physical. Pena may also want to take the Barry Bonds approach with Juan, where you give him as much rest as possible. (It's better to have him for 130 games healthy than try for 162 and lose him for the season.)

It's nice to see the Royals are not resting on a good 2003 season; they look like they are trying to win in 2004. That should continue to bring fans back. Good for them.

According to this article on ESPN.com, the Yankees are close to signing first baseman Tony Clark. This is one of those good news bad news deals. The bad news is that Tony Clark is no longer a very good first baseman. He had a great season in 1997, and three good seasons, but hasn't done anything since 2001. Basically, he's a lousy backup. On the good news side, if the Yankees are willing to have a lousy backup, I suppose that means that they think Giambi will be able to play most of the time. If his rehab is going well, that's certainly a positive for the Yankees.

Looks like David Wells crossed up the Yankees and is headed for warmer climes:

"David agreed verbally to a deal," Cashman said. "There was one component to be completed, a weigh-in. We didn't get it finalized, but we had the financials in place.

"Right now, we're waiting to find out if Boomer honors his commitment. If not, we get two draft picks. He knows how I feel. The ball's in David's court."

Two years ago, Wells had a handshake deal to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks when the Yankees swooped in to sign him at the last minute.

"I'm not complaining," Cashman said. "This can happen when you're negotiating with David."

I think Cashman's better off with the two draft picks. :-) The Padres expect Wells to lead their rotation, which says to me they don't think much of their starters. Still, local man makes good, and he'll be a draw at the new stadium.

Jason Johnson, non-tendered by Orioles, has signed with the Detroit Tigers. Not exactly a great career move, but he earned 11 win shares last year, and the best pitcher on the Tigers, Nate Cornejo, earned only 8. Johnson's not a great pitcher; he walks to many and doesn't strike out enough. The fact that he improves the Tigers rotation just shows how bad they were last year.

According to the Rocky Mountain News, Royce Clayton is close to signing with the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies have had interest all along in Clayton, who played last season in Milwaukee, feeling he could fit as a super utility infielder or protection at second base if they signed shortstop Rich Aurilia. In the past week, however, the Rockies have begun to doubt their ability to make a deal with Aurilia, and Clayton could be projected into the starting lineup at shortstop.

The Rockies offered Aurilia a $2.5 million deal, but agent Barry Axelrod has said the proposal is below what other teams have offered. The Rockies, however, are the only National League team to approach Aurilia that trains in Arizona and wants him to play shortstop.

Royce Clayton's value last year was all in his defense. He put up zero offensive win shares last year. The only other player to have at least 480 AB and zero offensive win shares was Jose Hernandez. I guess the Brewers found the appropriate replacement for him. Aurilia, at this point in his career, isn't exactly a prize, but I'd much rather have Rich than poor Royce Clayton starting for me.

One person I'm hearing very little buzz about this off season is Roberto Alomar. I did a search of google news, and the only tidbit I found that was the least bit interesting was in this assessment of the Cardinals moves:

Meanwhile, left field and second base remain unsettled, and the club still needs a leadoff hitter. Names like Roberto Alomar and Eric Young keep popping up, but neither is exciting. Alomar will be 36 next season and coming off two seasons of mediocrity. Young, who will be 37 in May, batted .251 and fields about the same. Is either one better than Vina?

Roberto Alomar not exciting? Roberto Alomar 36?! This is a man who was one of the most exciting players in the game for the first 14 years of his career. He got on base. He had some pop in his bat. He was fast and knew how to steal bases (80.9 % for his career). He was a playoff hero, and often dazzled spectators with his fielding. Yes, he had his umpire run-in that will leave a negative stain on his image, but this is a Hall of Fame player.

The last two season he's put up OBA's 40 points below his career average, with no power. He's a free agent likely looking for megabucks, and teams are now smart enough to know that he's a bad investment at eight figures, and even at high seven figures. He needs 321 hits for 3000. A couple of years ago, he looked like a shoe-in, but at his current rate, he'll have to play three seasons to get there. Maybe some club will offer him a low base with lots of incentives. Or maybe he'll just hang up his spikes, go home and enjoy his millions. It's just a reminder of how fast a career can fall apart.

The Yankees have signed Kenny Lofton to a two-year deal. I'm sure he'll play center while Williams moves to designated hitter. He's going to improve the Yankees defense in center, although he's not the fielder he once was.

My question is, will he lead off? He had a .352 OBA last year, .381 in 56 games for the Cubs. At .352, he'll be a better leadoff man than Soriano, who should probably be hitting 8th on this team. Off the top of my head, I'd probably go with this lineup:

1. Lofton
2. Jeter
3. Sheffield
4. Giambi
5. Posada
6. Williams
7. Matsui
8. Soriano
9. Boone

My guess is, however, that Torre will keep Soriano in the leadoff spot to make him happy, and Lofton will bat 9th as a 2nd leadoff man.

Jeter and Matsui will both turn 30 next June. Having 8 or your 9 starting batters on the downside of their careers should worry management. Still, it's an impressive lineup. They'll just have to keep remaking it every other year.

Don Ketchum of the Arizona Republic is reporting that the DBacks will fill out their rotation with knuckleballer Steve Sparks and former Astro Shane Reynolds. These are the pitcher replacing Schilling and Batista.

Sparks has not had a stellar career. He did have a good year in 2001 for the Tigers, going 14-9 with a 3.65 ERA, but he's never come close to that before or since. I did find this interesting, however:

Sparks, whose one-year contract likely will be in the $625,000 range, said he doesn't believe his knuckleball will be affected by dry conditions in Phoenix in his first National League season.

"I've spent some springs there (with Milwaukee and Anaheim) and had no problem with the climate," he said.

He was impressed with the way Diamondbacks General Manager Joe Garagiola Jr. "did his homework" on knuckleballers having success the first season after changing leagues.

If anyone has a link to research on the subject, I'd love to post it.

Reynolds hasn't had a good year since 1999. Through the 1999 season, he had struck out 7.8 per 9 innings; since then, 5.5. Looks like in reducing salary, the DBacks are getting what they pay for. However, I've learned over the seasons not to dismiss moves by Garagiola. He seems to have a certain touch that I tend to think is luck, but I'm also willing to believe he has a way of recognizing a player's strengths and taking advantage of same.

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star looks at how non-tenders help flood the free agent market, and bring Charlie Finley's dream closer to reality. (Link via Baseball Primer.)

I had wondered why the A's picked up Michael Barrett from the Expos. It turns out they wanted Damien Miller, and they knew the Cubs wanted Barrett. So they traded a young, poor hitting catcher for an older, somewhat better hitting catcher. I assume Miller is a stop gap until Jeremy Brown is ready.

In other catching news, Javy Lopez is reported to be close to signing with Baltimore. Where does that leave Ivan Rodriguez. Personally, if I had the choice between Lopez and I-Rod, I'm taking Ivan. He's younger and he's had a more consistent career.

Update: Lopez has been officially signed. Where will I-Rod go now?

ESPN has a list of the players who were not offered contracts by yesterday's deadline and have become free agents. Looks like Randall Simon and Braden Looper are the best of the bunch.

Jose Guillen became an Angel yesterday. He'll play right field and Tim Salmon will move to designated hitter. The Angels are hoping last year wasn't a fluke for Guillen, but even if it was, they are only paying him $3 million a year for two years. That won't break them.

Anaheim now turns to look for a first baseman. We may know more about that move after players are non-tendered tonight.

The Oakland A's are finalizing a contract to bring Arthur Rhodes to town to replace Keith Foulke. At first glance, it seems like Beane's streak of finding cheap closers is coming to an end. After all, he lost a pitcher who posted 21 win shares and is replacing him with someone who only had 4 last year. But let it be noted that in 2002, Foulke had only 9 win shares, that's why Beane was able to get him cheap.

Rhodes certainly had an off year in 2003. But if you look at his career as a reliever, what stands out is his great strikeout and walk numbers. As a reliever, he's struck out 615 in 561 1/3 innings while walking only 215. That's good for a .289 OBA allowed. His K's did fall off a bit last year (48 in 54 innings); he's 34 years old, and you wonder if he's lost a little bit of his stuff. But it's a good gamble for Beane. Rhodes has the tools to be a good closer, and he comes in at half the price of Foulke.

Update: An alert reader points out that Rhodes had an ankle injury last season, which may have contributed to his poor season.

Kevin Millwood has accepted the Phillies offer of arbitration. That gives the Phillies a very solid pitching staff going into the 2004 season.

It was a surprise when the Phillies made the arbitration offer Dec. 7, but general manager Ed Wade said the team was willing to take on Millwood's salary for one year, even though it would put them "significantly over budget."

There also a significant chance the Phillies can win this year, especially with the Braves offensively weakened by their departing free agents. Making the playoffs their first year in a new stadium is going to mean big crowds, and that extra revenue might make up for Millwood's salary.

Reggie Sanders has become THE fill in free agent. Need a right fielder? Reggie's available. This will be his 7th team in 7 years, the last four signing as a free agent. When the players won the right to free agency in the 1970's, Oakland owner Charlie Finely wanted a deal where all players got one-year contracts and became free agents every year. He saw (and so did Marvin Miller) that a small supply of free agents every year would drive salaries up. But if all players were available, if you didn't get Reggie Jackson, you could always get Dave Winfield or Dave Parker. But Finely was obnoxious and disliked, and the ballplayers got the model they wanted.

I should really take a look at the length of free agent contracts and see if they have fallen in recent years. It could be that MLB has realized that if they keep contract length short, they keep the market flooded and salaries lower.

Carl Everett has moved out of the country and will be roaming the outfield for the Montreal Expos next year. Actually, it's probably a good place for him; Frank Robinson is probably the perfect manager for Carl. Everett also had 21 win shares last year to Guerrero's 18 (Guerrero did play less). The Expos didn't improve themselves with Everett, but short term the have certainly blunted the loss of Vlad.

The Baltimore Orioles got off their opening salvo today in their bid to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, signing Miguel Tejada to a six-year deal. It also looks like they are after Ivan Rodriguez and Vlad Guerrero. This could be huge. Last year, Cruz, Fordyce and Gibbons combined for 33 win shares. The three free agents they are going after combined for 66. That's 11 more wins for the Orioles, and that's assuming they replace Gibbons with Vlad. More likely, Gibbons will fill in another week spot in the lineup. Eleven wins takes the Orioles up to 82, not enough to catch the Blue Jays, but enough to be a competitve team that will be fun to watch. And Vlad and Tejada did not have their best years. Could be a few more wins there if they recover.

Looks like the AL East is shaping up to have four very good teams. Could be a very interesting race.

The Red Sox have added an excellent closer to their staff with the signing of Keith Foulke to a three-year contract, worth between 20 and 26 million dollars.

"We couldn't be happier to have added Keith Foulke and Curt Schilling in the same offseason," Epstein said. "We've added two of the best pitchers in baseball. That was one of the weaknesses of our club last year."

The A's will now go for their fourth closer in four years. All have done well for the A's without costing them a lot of money. I've always suspected it wasn't that hard to find a closer, and Beane seems to be proving that right.

It's interesting to note that if you look at pitchers with the lowest ERA since 1999, and set the minimum at 400 innings, Foulke is second to Pedro Martinez in the majors (Pedro 2.10, Foulke 2.48). This is a really good pitcher.

The Sox have also taken away the excuse of "we don't know our roles" from the rest of the bullpen. This should be a hugely improved pitching staff over last year.

The Toronto Blue Jays have signed pitcher Miguel Batista to a three-year deal. I like the fact that Geoff Baker throws a good stat into the story:

The Dominican-born Batista was a relative unknown before joining the D-Backs in 2001. Last season, he went 10-9 with a 3.54 earned run average, but was surprisngly effective on artificial turf and also had an impressive strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 142-to-60.

This was something new for Batista, as he had a 1.4 K/BB ratio in his career through 2002. Still, he pitched well in a tough ballpark last year, allowing only 13 HR all year, and four on the road in 105 innings. Riccardi is doing a good job of improving the rotation without busting his budget.

Miguel Tejada thinks he'll be signed over the weekend, but didn't say by whom:

"My agent has been exchanging concrete offers with the teams that have showed interest," Tejada told The Associated Press in a telephone interview from his home in Santo Domingo.

"This weekend could be decisive for my future. I hope to have a firm contract, or at least be close to signing, during the weekend."

The baseball winter meetings begin Friday in New Orleans and go through Monday.

Tejada said baseball owners "know what I can do on the field and how much I'm worth. I'm not worried in that sense."

So it seems a few teams are bidding on Miguel. This, the Sheffield debacle, and a number of other signings (especially Pettitte) makes me think the collusion argument doesn't have a lot of merit. Free agents are moving to other teams, and the lower salaries seem to be more a reflection of the market place (less money) and the supply (over 200 free agents available).

It's easy to miss out on what other teams are doing when all the attention seems to be focused on the A-Rod deal and the Yankees moves. But San Diego signed their first Japanese player yesterday, Akinori O(h)tsuka. In 350 2/3 innings in Japan, he's struck out 474 while walking 117. You have to like those kind of numbers. And he's only walked 8 batters in the last two years. Nomo with control.

I didn't get a chance to comment on this, but the Transaction Guy has the goods on Guardado signing with the Mariners.

It appears that Andy Pettitte has finalized a deal with the Houston Astros. The Yankees did try to keep him:

Pettitte made his decision after weighing a new offer from the Yankees on Wednesday night, another baseball source said, also on the condition of anonymity.

The Yankees' offered the left-handed starter $39 million for three years, about $3 million more annually than Houston. But the Astros play near Pettitte's hometown of Deer Park, apparently an important factor.

One thing about free agency that seems to escape critics of the system is that players don't always go for the most money. For the most part, the differences in money offered are small; players often have personal reasons outweigh the finanical considerations.

As for what this means for the clubs, I've always found Pettitte an interesting pitcher. For his career, he's allowed a .330 OBA, but his effective OBA is much lower, since he removes lots of batters through pickoffs and inducing double plays. In the last three seasons, he's also greatly reduced the number of walks he issues and increased the number of strikeouts. His HR rate will probably go up with the Astros due to the park configuration, but he should still be a winner with that team.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are now short a starter. There is a rumor that the Yankees are about to trade Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown, but that story also seems to have disappeared from ESPN's web site, so I don't know how true it is. Weaver for Brown would be a great deal for the Yankees (Weaver for a box of baseballs would be a great deal for the Yankees), but it would continue to make them too right-handed and old.

The loss of Pettitte, the problems with the Sheffield deal seem to be signaling a Yankees front office in turmoil. That's good for all the teams that are seriously trying to compete against them over the next few years. If I were the Orioles, I'd wrap up Guerrero as quick as I can to prevent the Yankees from changing their mind on Sheffield.

The Detroit Tigers have signed Fernando Vina, and they seem to be excited about it:

While other teams are cutting payroll, the Tigers are willing to spend this offseason.

"There's no question we're in a mode that we can be very active and aggressive in our conversations with agents and other teams," Tigers president Dave Dombrowski said. "It's great. It's an exciting time for our organization. We're looking to upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching."

He failed to add first base, thirdbase, catcher, relief pitching and bat boy. :-) Kidding aside, Vina is not going to improve the team much. He's coming off his worse season in a long time. He posted 5 wins shares in about 1/2 a season. Warren Morris posted 7 win shares in about 2/3 of a season. Seems like they are pretty even, and Warren is five years younger. Seems they could have found a better way to spend the $3 million that would have actually upgraded the team.

The Braves signed former Ranger John Thomson to a two year deal for $7 million. This AP story on ESPN.com promotes his signing as a replacement for Greg Maddux.

Please.

Thomson's strength is that he doesn't walk very many. He does, however, give up a lot of HR and not many strikeouts. Now, if I remember Greg Maddux, he didn't walk anybody, struck out a decent amount of batters, and seldom gave up a HR. Thomson is a guy who has spent most of his career in Denver and Dallas, yet has given up as many HR on the road as he has at home. I don't see a lot of redeeming qualities here. The Braves have a great pitching program, but they usually start with players who have talent. I would rather have paid for another year of Maddux.

The Anaheim Angels have signed Bartolo Colon to a 4-year, $48 million contract. Bill Stoneman tells us why:

The Angels are hoping one of the times he will be pitching is deep into October. Even with one of the finest bullpens in the major leagues, the Angels finished sixth in ERA last year, third in their division. It was while watching the Florida Marlins dispatch the New York Yankees in the World Series two months ago that Stoneman cemented his strategy of concentrating on arms.

"If you don't have pitching, particularly starting pitching, it's so difficult to get into the playoffs and even when you're in, to win," Stoneman said. "Those of us who paid attention to the Marlins saw that. It wasn't just their starting pitching, but those young starters really did the job for them."

One of those starters in particular, Josh Beckett, had a fastball so electric most hitters looked baffled against him. By adding Escobar and Colon, Stoneman hopes to build a rotation with so much raw power that opponents will have uncomfortable series against Anaheim week in and week out.

Colon certainly can get the ball to the catcher's mitt quickly, with a high-90s fastball. He's also one of the most durable pitchers in the game, having spent all of three weeks on the disabled list in his eight-year career. Colon pitched complete games in four of his six September starts for the Chicago White Sox last season.

The thing that bothers me about Colon, however, is his falloff in strikeouts over the last two seasons. Through the 2001 season, Colon averaged 7.86 K per 9; 2002-2002 that was 6.10. That strikes me as a pitcher on his way down. But at the same time, his ERA has dropped from 4.09 to 3.41 over the same time periods. A thrower becoming a pitcher? Better defense behind him? It's hard to say. I remember sitting behind home plate at Fenway a few years ago as Colon matched up with Pedro. He threw every bit as hard as Pedro did. The difference that struck me was that Pedro had better control of his pitches. Pedro could put his out pitch exactly where he wanted. Colon sometimes missed, and it would result in big hits. Maybe Colon has improved that part of the game.

It's good to see the new owner of the Angels actively trying to win. It appears trades may be in the offing for position players coming from the overstocked starting staff. I don't know how much better the Angels are going to be, but it's clear they are not being neglected.

The Phillies look like they are going to sign Tim Worrell as their new setup man. Worrell did a great job in the role for the Giants in 2001 and 2002, and will return to that role after being the closer for the Giants in 2003. The Phillies were 19th in the majors in save percentage last year, but with the Big W's finishing games, I expect that will improve significantly.

Unlike the Brewers, Tigers and Pirates before them, the Phillies appear to be serious about combining a new ballpark with a winning team. With Atlanta losing two key offensive players in Sheffield and Lopez and with Florida losing one in I-Rod, the Phillies are looking more and more like the favorites in the NL East.

Update: In one of the comments below, John Y. writes:

I think Ed Wade wants to provide a team that Mr. Ed could manage to first place.

Mr. Ed, as it turns out, was a pretty good manager:

081- Leo Durocher Meets Mister Ed

Original Airdate: September 29, 1963

Ed's favorite team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, aren't doing so hot. Ed, being the baseball expert that he is, calls up Leo Durcocher and gives him tips on how to help his players. Leo doesn't pay much attention to him at first, but realizes Ed's tips are right. Thinking it's Wilbur who had called him, Leo invites Wilbur down to the field to give him some more tips. Unfortunatly, Carol and the Addisons want to go to Palm Springs. Ed fixes that, by giving Carol a phony weather report for Palm Springs. Ed and Wilbur travel to Dodger's stadium to give some tips.

Classic Scene:

Ed hits a homerun! He runs the bases and slides into home.. too bad he missed second base.
Worth Mentioning...

This is often concidered to many fans to be the best Mister Ed episode.
This is Addison's final episode. He died soon after of leukemia at age 67.

Maybe Ed Wade should hire Wilbur Wood as his pitching coach. :-)

I find it interesting that the supposed done deal between the Yankees and Gary Sheffield has not been consummated yet. It may be that the Braves move to get a compensation pick has put the deal on hold. But I also suspect that there are other forces at work as well.

This is pure speculation, but if I were Brian Cashman, I'd be pushing George real hard not to make this deal, but instead sign Vlad Guerrero to a long term deal. I'd remind George of the difference in age between the two and the probability of decline in offense in much lower with Vlad. I'd point out that he's a better defensive player (and Yankees lack of defense). I'd point out that the team is getting too old, and you need a young stud to get off the treadmill. I would be fighting tooth and nail to get Steinbrenner to change his mind.

Something like that may be going on. The Cashman/Michael part of the Yankees operation is probably thinking this way. Whether they can convince the boss is another story.

It's being reported that Kaz Matsui has agreed to sign with the Mets. It's not a done deal, as Matsui has to undergo a physical, but things are looking up in Queens.

In nine years with the Seibu Lions of the Pacific League, Matsui batted over .300 seven times, ripped at least 20 homers four times and won a quartet of Gold Gloves. He also possesses blazing speed (Ichiro Suzuki swears Matsui's faster than he is) and is extremely durable (he's played in 1,143 consecutive games).

Matsui's announcement also officially shifts Jose Reyes to second base, a move that some skeptics have questioned. The move is indeed a risk, but it also gives the Mets the potential to sport the game's most athletic and dynamic double-play combination. The duo also will be linked at the top of the lineup, giving the club back-to-back switch-hitting speedsters.

Of course, it would be better if in addition to their speed, both got on base. I think Kaz will do alright, but Reyes needs to do much better than he did in 2003. Still, defense up the middle should be better, and that will help Glavine. I also wonder if a rivalry will develop between Hideki and Kaz, where they push each other to be the top Matsui.

Update: the raindrops doesn't like the deal at all.

Unlike the Braves, the A's did offer three of their free agents arbitration, one of them being Miguel Tejada. So all Miguel has to do to stay with the A's (for at least one more season) is accept arbitration. On the plus side for Miguel, if he accepts, he'll probably make more money this year than he would in the first year of a long term contract. It would also give him a chance to win the series with this particular set of core players. On the plus side for the A's, if Tejada refuses arbitration, they get a draft pick. If he accepts, they don't have a long term contract over their heads if Tejada's 2003 falloff wasn't a fluke. We'll see what happens.

The Atlanta Braves failed to offer arbitration to Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Greg Maddux. While I understand they didn't want to run the risk of these players accepting arbitration, in the case of Sheffield at least, the Braves are giving up any compensation they would be due these players. The Braves lose a lot of offense in Sheffield and Lopez. It would be good if they could get a couple of draft picks to rebuild that in the future.

The Braves remain pretty strong up the middle with Furcal, Gile and A. Jones, and Chipper still can generate some offense. The Braves will be good in 2004, but it looks less likely that they'll run away with the division.

Looks like Vinny Castilla is going to return to the Colorado Rockies. The hold right now appears to be the Braves; the Rockies are waiting to see if the Braves offer Castilla arbitration. If they don't the Rockies won't have to give up a draft pick. It's an example of a player wanting to be closer to home.

"I hope this works out," Castilla said. "My wife (Samantha) is from here. The in-laws are here. There are a lot of advantages to staying here to play."

Samantha is expecting the couple's third son in February, and their boys attend school in the Denver area. Goldschmidt declined to answer when asked if the Rockies have made a contract offer, and Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd has talked diplomatically about landing Castilla. However, multiple industry sources said the club is confident they can sign the fan favorite, who hit 22 homers for the Braves last season.

He actually may help the team as well, as Castilla had 14 win shares last year vs. Stynes' 10.

I was glad to see the Detroit Tigers are embarassed enough by last year's debacle to look to improving the team through free agents. One they are going after is Miguel Tejada, and Tigers realize they are going to have to pay up to bring better players to the city:

It happens when you lose 119 games and play in a city with a chilly spring climate and a park with big dimensions. Unlike many clubs, the Tigers can't lure a free agent by telling him that he's the missing piece of their championship puzzle, or that he'll build his hitting stats in their cozy park, or that he'll love the weather.

To overcome those disadvantages, the Tigers might have to overpay -- to make the highest bid for a free agent, going beyond his market value. They want to sign at least two quality free agents. Like most clubs, they haven't signed any yet, but baseball executives expect the pace to pick up in the next few weeks.

Ilitch said he might personally intervene to help convince a player to take Detroit's over-paying offer: "If the owner shows a real strong interest and goes out of his way . . . if you pick the right spot and the player is someone who can make a real contribution . . . you've got to do some of that in sports."

When given the chance to build a team through free agency in the past, Dave Dombrowski was able to bring a world championship to Miami. I don't think he can do that this year, but a player like Tejada would put some fannies in the seats and show the city of Detroit that the Tigers are serious about building a winner.

According to Mark Hale in the NY Post, the Mets are close to signing Kaz Matsui. He would play short, and Jose Reyes would move to 2nd. They are also attempting to acquire free agent Mike Cameron. Matsui, Reyes and Cameron would give the Mets good defense up the middle.

The Yankees have signed another right-handed reliever, Paul Quantrill (the article also has a roundup of the hot stove action). I like this signing a lot less than the Gordon signing. ESPN's profile page of Quantrill lists him as a groundball, finesse pitcher. Given the Yankees defense, I can see Paul getting roughed up quite a bit.

The one thing he did extremely well with the Dodgers was keep the ball in the park, allowing only three HR over the last two seasons. He has the lowest HR per 9 (0.18) over the last two seasons of any pitcher with 150 IP.

The Cubs have signed LaTroy Hawkins to a 3-year, $11 million deal. The Cub Reporter makes an important point :

I'll take the question mark off the title when it becomes official, but for now I will say this: Hawkins is good. In fact, in three of the last four years, he's been very good, and in the last two I'd even say he's been great.

Ironically, the only year he struggled as a reliever was the year he spent as the Twins' closer. Keep that in mind when Dusty starts pitting him against JoeBo in the spring because he's a "proven" closer. I would say he's a proven closer the same way he's a proven starter; he's proven that, when put in that role, he doesn't perform well. If Dusty feels the need to not pitch Hawkins until the 9th inning next year, it won't be the most effective allocation of resources, but it won't be the end of the world, either.

Of course, Dusty has to be willing to warm up pitchers before his starters get in trouble for them to be effective. At least he won't have to worry about LaTroy wilting in the heat. :-)

On another note, so far the free agents that have been signed are not getting outrageous amounts of money. If Sheffield signs with the Yankees for the reported amount, the New Yorkers are getting a pretty good deal. I never thought we'd see three years in a row where we didn't set a new record for highest salary.

Update: Fixed link.

There's something bothering me about the supposed Gary Sheffield deal:

Sheffield's agent, Rufus Williams, said it has not been determined when a deal with the Yankees would be completed.

"A deal is done once it's inked, and we're not at that point," Williams told The Associated Press.

New York might wait to finalize Sheffield's deal until after the Dec. 7 deadline for teams to offer salary arbitration to former players who became free agents, a baseball official with knowledge of the situation told AP on condition of anonymity.

It was initially reported that Sheffield wanted more money from the Yankees and that he was even considering re-signing with the Braves. If Atlanta doesn't offer arbitration to Sheffield, the team that signs him after Dec. 7 would not lose any amateur draft picks as compensation.

If the deal is a done deal, and everyone knows about it, why wait until December 7th? Atlanta is going to offer arbitration so they can get the draft pick, especially if they know Sheffield is going to sign with the Yankees. So I wonder, is someone in the Sheffield camp pulling a fast one? If the Braves offer arbitration, will Sheffield accept? Sheffield had more win shares last year than Giambi or Manny Ramirez or A-Rod. It's quite possible that a arbitrator could award Sheffield a one-year contract between $15 and $20 million dollars. That might be more appealing to Gary than $11 million a year over three years.

I don't think this contract is as solid as the stories make it out to be.

ESPN is reporting that Mike Lowell is about to sign with the Marlins pending a physical. Daniel Shamah notices an interesting clause in the contract:

But check out that out-clause: a new stadium deal? It reminds me a lot of the Mike Sweeney deal a couple of years ago, that was contigent on the Royals reaching .500. It seems to me that this is an unintended consequence of the last CBA and a creative solution to the current market correction in player salaries: in an effort to keep salaries down, award other incentives that don't impact the salary threshold. So Lowell gets assurance that the Marlins have a better fiscal outlook (which presumably, would lead to a better team), and the Marlins don't lose an all-star third baseman, and don't take the PR hit losing Lowell would result in. So on the surface, it's a win-win deal, kind of like the way the Sweeney deal was at the time. But now the Royals might be better off without Sweeney: a fluke season triggered the lock-in clause, and as a result they're locked into a long-term contract that they can't really afford. The Royals' competitive timetable indicates that 2005 may be the year they can take a shot, but they're locked into 11 million a year for an aging Sweeney. I could reasonably foresee a similar problem for the Marlins: the core of their team is their young rotation, Cabrera, and Hee Seop Choi. In 2005, they'll be on the verge of being a dynasty, except that they'll have 8 million on the books for an aging, injured third baseman.

I agree that it's a win-win deal. And I agree that Sweeney was win-win also, since it demonstrated a commitment to winning that helps bring fans to the park. The boost in attendance can come after you win the series, as happened to the Twins after they won in 1987. I believe the Marlins are trying not to repeat the mistake of 1997; while they didn't make money that year, there's no telling what would have happened in 1998 if they had kept the team together. By making these moves, the Marlins management is giving the fans of Florida the chance to show that they will support a championship ball club. If not, they don't ask for a new stadium and Lowell is gone in a year.

Return to the days of yesteryear as the Yankees sign Tom "Flash" Gordon to a two year contract. I was never impressed with Gordon as a starter, but he's been a fine reliever, and it looks like he's finally recovered from his Tommy John surgery. He strikes out a lot of batters; just what the Yankees need with their stinky defense. He keeps the ball in the park, which is good for a righty pitching in Yankee stadium. And he can step into the closer role if something happens to Rivera. Since 1997, he actually has a better save percentage than Rivera (88.4 to 87.4, fourth and fifth in the majors over that time). A very good signing by the Yankees.

(Hat tip to Off Wing Opinion.)

The Marlins have resigned Luis Castillo, fending off an offer from the NY Mets. Despite the trade of Derrek Lee to the Cubs, it looks like the Marlins will try to keep the team together. According to the article, Mike Lowell is also about to sign a new contract. The big question mark is Ivan Rodriguez, who is looking for more than $10 million a year in a multi-year deal. It's interesting; all three are very close in win shares (I-Rod and Lowell 23, Castillo 22), but those wins are valued very differently with Luis getting about $5 million a year, Lowell $8 million a year, and Ivan asking for more than that. Castillo looks underpaid to me.

For those of you wondering about collusion, the I-Rod case is a good one to watch. The Orioles tried to get him last year, and with his stellar 2003 performance, you'd think the O's would want him even more. He would fit well on the Giants (a great replacement for Santiago), or give a boost to the Cubs offense. He's a great player coming off a great year, and if there is little interest in him, there's something fishy. :-)

Correction: Brian Carter reminds me that the Giants already replaced Santiago with Pierzynski.

Reports that the Yankees were about to sign Gary Sheffield appear to be premature.

Despite the urge to respond to Boston's acquisition of Curt Schilling, the Yankees are holding firm in their negotiations with Sheffield, ESPN.com's Buster Olney has learned. The Yankees are offering the free-agent outfielder a three-year deal with an annual salary of $11 million, the amount Sheffield earned with the Braves in 2003.

Published reports indicated the potential deal includes a fourth-year option and is worth between $38 million and $40 million.

"Sheffield is still talking in the clouds," a source told ESPN.com, adding that Sheffield talked as recently as last week about a desire to re-sign with Atlanta.

This reminds me of the 2000 season. The rumors were flying left and right that the Yankees were going to acquire Sammy Sosa or Juan Gonzalez. This made no sense to me, since what the Yankees needed at the time was lefty power. A deal for a right-handed slugger just didn't make sense. The Yankees traded for Dave Justice, just the kind of hitter they needed.

Right now, the Yankees don't need another bad defensive outfielder. And if they are going to go right-handed, they'd be much better off with Vlad Guerrero. Or, they could take a chance that 2003 wasn't a fluke and sign Jose Guillen for a lot less money than either of the other two.

I don't think the Yankees will sign Sheffield. Now that they won't be getting Schilling, I think they'll use the money to invest in pitching.

Update:: According to Peter Gammons, I'm wrong. The deal is done and Sheffield is waiting to sign on the bottom line. Billy Connor had a heart attack on Friday, and that's holding things up. Our best goes out to Billy and hope he recovers quickly. Still I'm waiting for the deal to be absolutely final.

I had not heard of Lee Seung-Yeop, a Korean first baseman and slugger, but he's a free agent and he's in the US trying to drum up interest.

The reason why Lee Seung-yeop is moving fast is to heat up the frozen free agent (FA) market. Lee has been worried because he currently does not have a tangible offer since becoming a FA on November 9 and has visited the U.S. on John Kim’s advice that it would be helpful to visit the teams in person. As he expected, his visit has already drawn the attention of U.S. media and major league teams.

With over 200 free agents, it's a buyer's market. This is a good move on Lee's part to generate attention.

Raul Ibanez has signed with the Seattle Mariners, returning to his original team. I don't quite understand this deal. In one scenario, Cameron goes and either Winn or Ichiro plays center. In another scenario, Winn goes. However, Winn and Cameron both posted 21 win share seasons in 2003 (Ichiro 23, making it a great outfield), whereas Ibanez only accumulated 15. So if Ibanez plays, that would appear to hurt the Mariners. Winn is not eligable for free agency yet, so his salary can be controlled, and he certainly won't be getting over $4 million a year. Unless Bavasi has a great deal for Winn in the works, this is a loss for the Mariners.

The Asian migration to the major leagues continues. Kaz Matsui has announced he wants to play in the western major leagues, and is a free agent able to sign with the highest bidder.

The 5-foot-9 Kazuo Matsui batted .305 with 33 homers, 84 RBI and 179 hits this year for the Lions. He spent several weeks mulling whether to remain in Japan or go to the majors.

``It was a tough decision to make,'' he said. ``I wondered whether I should play at home or go overseas.''

He traveled to New York after the season to watch a playoff game between the Red Sox and Yankees and returned to Japan saying he was impressed with the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium.

I've had friends who have attended baseball games in Japan. The crowds are very polite, and root for all players on both teams. Maybe US crowds appeal to his competitive spirit?

Whichever team lands Kaz Matsui will be getting a known quantity that can step right in for the organization. It one of the benefits of the Japanese-MLB relationship, that players come here in their prime ready to contribute.

Sometimes I worry that I don't write enough about teams that I'm not close to, especially the west coast teams. So I went to the SF Chronicle page today to see if they had any articles on the Giants potential free agents. There was not one new story on the page about the Giants. They had World Series stories and Grady Little getting fired, but I didn't see a column about the Giants. You would have thought a day after free agents started to file there would be an opinion piece or an analysis piece on how losing players is going to hurt or help the Giants. Maybe this is why I write about the Yankees so much; they're always making news.

Players started filing for free agency today. Here's the list of potential and current free agents by team. And here's a list by position.

Also, Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel writes about how ML ownership of the Expos puts a damper on the free agent market:

For the third straight winter, Major League Baseball is poised to control the free agent market thanks to its convenient stewardship of the Montreal/San Juan Expos.

Two years ago, it was the prospect of contraction and a dispersal draft that limited player movement on the open market. Contraction never happened, all those Expos stars stayed put and the agents were left to wail and gnash their teeth.

Last winter it was the budget fiasco in which Expos General Manager Omar Minaya didn't learn his 2003 payroll target until a few days before the winter meetings. Suddenly, the possibility of a Javier Vazquez, Vladimir Guerrero or Bartolo Colon being available through trade depressed a promising free-agent market.

Jim Thome was the only free agent who reached the $15 million-per-year tier. Proven commodities such as Cliff Floyd ($6.5 million a year) and Pudge Rodriguez (one-year, a heavily deferred $10 million) were left to fight for Thome's scraps.

Now Bud Selig is back with Round 3 of the Great Legalized Collusion Scam. Because the Expos still don't know how many games they will play away from Montreal next season, because Minaya is off interviewing for jobs from New York to Cincinnati to Seattle, the Expos remain in flux.

It's an interesting take. The biggest free agent on the market is Vlad Guerrero, and what happens to him will have an impact on everyone's decisions.

Peter White at Mariners Musings doesn't really want Miguel Tejada to come to Seattle, and other random thoughts.

Tejada's performance this year and in the playoffs has to be an agent's nightmare. He got off to a bad start in April, recovered but had a power outage in June, had a great 1/2 season after the break, but totally bombed in the playoffs. His value has gone down, although I think he would tremendously improve a team like the Dodgers.