Casey Blake of the Cleveland Indians is having a good double header. He was two for three in the first game with a grand slam and five RBI. So far in the night cap, he's two for two with a 2 run HR. Seven RBI is a pretty good day's work.

Coors field is not yielding much offense tonight. Darren Oliver has allowed two hits through four innings, while DBack Elmer Dessens has sent the Rockies down without a hit for four straight innings. Of course, this game isn't on the MLB Extra Innings package tonight :(

The Giants and Bonds are getting the best of this matchup tonight. Bonds is 1 for 4 with a single and an RBI, Pujos is 0 for 3, and the Cardinals are getting shutout 5-0 in the seventh. Schmidt is throwing strikes, and has allowed 4 hits while striking out 4 through six innings. He's thrown 53 of his 76 pitches for strikes.

Jim Thome hit his 21st HR tonight, and it was a big one. With 2 out and 1 on in the 7th, Thome's HR gave the Phillies a 4-3 lead.

Greg Maddux was throwing strikes tonight. Forty six of his 62 pitches went for strikes. Unfortunately, those strikes were not fooling anyone. In four innings he gave up 6 hits, 2 HR and 7 earned runs. Maddux's ERA is now a very un-Maddux like 4.84. Maddux has now given up 14 HR, equaling the number he allowed last year. His career high is 20, and that looks like it's in jeopardy right now.

Meanwhile, Mark Redman was doing what no one on the Marlins could do to the Red Sox; shut down a good offense. Redman threw a complete game five hitter, allowing only 1 run.

Pettitte and Ponson have thrown very strange games tonight. Both have given up 10 hits in six innings. Both had given up 3 earned runs and both had thrown a lot of pitches. Baltimore was 0 for 7 vs. Pettitte with runners in scoring position; the Yankees were 1 for 7 vs. Ponson. Ponson allowed two hits to start the 7th, and Hargrove brought in B.J. Ryan to turn Sierra around to the right side. Sierra promptly hit a three run HR to put Ponson in position to get the loss. I doubt Pettitte will come out for the 7th.

The White Sox made quick work on Joe Mays tonight. They tagges him for 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings and lead 8-0 in the fourth. With the Royals losing the first of a twin bill, the White Sox have a chance to gain on both division leaders. Jon Garland has only allowed 1 hit through four.

Mike Maroth of the Detroit Tigers has shut down the powerful Jays lineup through seven innings. Eight hits, one walk, four strike outs and only two runs. With a 108 pitches thrown, and a 6-2 lead, will he be back out, or will the bullpen get a chance to blow the game?

Update: Mears relieves Maroth in the 8th and gets the Jays 1-2-3.

While watching the Expos-Mets, I just saw Ron Calloway almost make a terrific play. Burnitz smoked one into deep right field. Calloway ran back and to his left to try to make the play, but the ball was just beyond his glove. The ball bounced off the wall, and Calloway barehanded it turned and threw a strike in the air to second base. Burnitz only beat the throw barely. Calloway showed a Guerrero like arm on that play.

Richard Lederer has a new blog, Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT. Check out his article on Rico Baldelli.

Also, the Cub Reporter is back from vacation. Stop by and say hello.

NASA is looking for help with a cork problem. :-)

The White Sox get another chance to gain in the division as they host the Minnesota Twins tonight. The White Sox have been playing better lately, going 8-5 over their last 13, and taking 2 out of 3 from the Twins last week and four out of six from the Cubs.

On the West Coast, Seattle makes the trip south to Oakland to face Aaron Harang and the A's. Aaron may have the higest A concentration since Benny Ayala. Aaron had three appearances against Seattle last year, two of them starts, and has a 1.88 ERA vs. the Mariners despite walking 9 in 14 1/3 innings. He'll face 10-game winner Jamie Moyer, who is 2-3 in his last five starts despite a 2.36 ERA.

The best matchup in the NL tonight finds the Giants traveling to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. Jason Schmidt will try to stop the Pujols led team that has scored 13 runs in each of their last two games. Bonds' comments about Pujols are sure to be up in the locker room.

Finally, the Rockies send Darren Oliver to the mound to try to stop the Diamondbacks 11-game win streak. The DBacks have outscored their opponents 65-35 during the streak.

Eric McErlain of Off Wing Opinion comments on an article that appear in the Toronto Star that focused on the racial makeup of the Toronto Blue Jays. You can find the original article here. I think Eric does a very good job of taking down the article, so I won't add any criticism of my own.

Let me, instead, take a different tack. Part of this is a backlash against something new and successful. Baseball writers, agents, managers and GMs have fed us a lot of hokum for years. And now, with Beane and company starting to prove them wrong, they are in a tither that the general public is going to start seeing them as naked emperors. Too bad. And as the Beane doctrine spreads, I'm afraid the Dominicans may be hit the hardest. Here's why. In a recent article about Soriano's slump:

Soriano said Jackson, who also has worked with Raul Mondesi this season, talked to him recently. "He wants me to wait on the ball," Soriano said. "See the ball and wait."

Patience is not a common trait for players from the Dominican Republic. That oft-quoted adage is: "You don't walk your way off the island." So Torre knows that Soriano will always be a free swinger, and even though he bats leadoff, he will never fit the traditional profile of a top-of-the order hitter.

The reason Dominicans don't walk their way off the island is that the scouts haven't looked for that. If that mentality doesn't change, they may no longer be able to hit off the island, either, and those same scouts that brought these players to the attention of the baseball world will have done them a long term disservice. I hope the examples of Sammy Sosa and Manny Ramirez show the islanders that walking has its benefits, too. They would be better to follow their examples of selectivity, rather than players like Tony Fernandez and George Bell. Otherwise, the scouts who will be working for the likes of Beane and Ricciardi will keep signing white guys who get on base.

SI.com has a nice wrap-up of interleague play. (Yes, I know there is one game to be played.)

I just saw Jason Giambi take Al Leiter deep to the opposite field. This is the second time in recent weeks where I saw Giambi homer into the monuments. Last year, Giambi hit five of his 41 HR to the left of second base. This year, he's hit 7 of 22 there. I wonder if the eye problem or the shift has caused him to make an adjustment to take outside pitches the other way? If so, he may have become an even more dangerous hitter, as he now showing power as well to the opposite field.

Matsui and Posada also homered in the inning, giving the Yankees a 5-3 lead.

Eric Byrnes hit for the cycle today. He's made the most of his opportunity. He now had a .401 OBA and a .577 slugging percentage. It's going to be very hard to take him out of the lineup. He had good OBA numbers in the minors; it's not quite clear to me why it took him so long to make the majors as a regular. He seems like the kind of ballplayer Beane looks for. I wonder if Billy thinks Byrnes has become overvalued and will trade him?

Last year, when Jeff Weaver was traded to the Yankees, I wrote the following:

The other thing that doesn't make me like this deal from the Yankees point of view is that Weaver gets pounded by lefties for power, and now he's going to pitch half his games in a stadium that favors lefties.

Weaver gave up a 3-run HR to Burnitz in the 1st inning. He's now allowed eight HR this year, seven to lefties, and five of those seven have been at Yankee Stadium. Coming into today, lefties are slugging .540 vs. Weaver, righties .412. I think the best thing for both Weaver and the Yankees would be trade to a team that plays in a pitcher's park.

The Padres came into the ninth inning trailing the Mariners 6-2. Rondell White came up with the bases loaded and hit his 2nd grand slam of the season vs. the Mariners to tie the game. The Padres proceeded to load the bases again, and Lockhart singled in two more runs to give the Padres an 8-6 victory.

The Cardinals offense exploded in KC for the last two games of the series, putting up consecutive 13 run scores. The KC starting pitchers allowed 18 runs in 8.1 innings the last two days. Ouch.

Tomo Ohka was masterful today, throwing over 70% of this pitches for strikes as he shut down the Blue Jays on 2 hits and 2 unearned runs. The bottom of the Expos order (Calloway, Barrett and Carroll, from the land of the double-lettered people) were 6 for 16 with five RBI and 3 runs scored. The Expos stay in the hunt for the wild card, in third place one game out as I write this.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won their 11th straight game today. Jose Valverde picked up his 6th save of the streak; he's not pitched 9 consecutive scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 1.38. And of course, the DBacks have done this without the aid of Johnson or Schilling. It's going to be a great boost for the club when they get those two back.

Nate Cornejo pitched a decent game, giving up 2 runs in 6 1/3 innings, but the bullpen could not hold a 3-1 lead. Nate did not get the loss, but he (and the Tigers) could have used the win.

One of the few bright spots for the Cleveland Indians this year is closer Danny Baez. He picked up his 18th save today, and has improved every month this year. He had a 6.55 ERA in April, a 3.46 in May and so far in June, 1.93.

Jeff Suppan, not Shawn Chacon, had the great pitching performance today. Suppan pitched a complete game shutout of the Rockies, striking out 6 and throwing 88 or his 129 pitches for strikes. Jason Kendall went 4 for 5, raising his OBA to .384. After two sub-par years, Kendall seems to have regained the ability to get on base, giving Giles more RBI opportunities.

My favorite Rockies pitcher of all time, Shawn Chacon goes for this 12th win today against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. He's 0-2 in his career against the Pirates, but has not faced them this year. I still believe that if he can keep his ERA under 4.00, he'll be a legitimate Cy Young candidate.

The Diamondbacks go for their 10th win in a row against the hapless Tigers. Last night, the Diamondbacks shut out the Tigers, and it was the 11th time Detroit had been shutout this year. The Tigers are seriously threatening to win fewer games than the 1962 Mets. The Tigers currently are 18-60. Through the same number of games in 1962, the Mets were 21-57.

The City of Big Shoulders offers the best pitching matchup of the day. AL ERA leader Esteban Loaiza goes against NL strikeout leader Kerry Wood. Wood has never beaten the White Sox, and is 0-3 with a 7.06 ERA against the club.

Finally, look for some offense tonight in NY, as Al Leiter faces Jeff Weaver. Both have ERAs over 5.00. Weaver is a good example of why it's important to for a Yankee pitcher to strikeout a lot of batters. He only strikes out about 4.5 per nine; because of that and the Yankees poor offense, he's allowed the 2nd highest BA among pitchers in the AL, .331 (Omar Daal is at .333).

Lots of action today, enjoy!

My local paper is the Springfield Republican. Their senior sports writer is a man named Garry Brown. I don't read Garry much, but today's headline caught my eye, Scout's instinct must count. It's a direct challenge to the ideas in Moneyball.

Has the evaluation of young players become too sophisticated?

Veteran baseball scouts say yes, although they'd rather not talk about it out of respect for their bosses.

And out of fear of their jobs.

Those bosses are the general managers of today, most of whom believe that on-base percentage and other such statistics tell all they need to know about the players they pursue at draft time. So it was with the June 3 selections of college and high school players. In many cases, scouting directors felt uncomfortable with the restrictions placed upon them.

What were these restrictions? You can't draft a player because he looks good in his uniform? You mean you can only draft players who actually showed signs of being able to play baseball?

Statistical analysis certainly has its place in rating players, but general managers would do well not to underestimate the value of good old-fashioned scouting.

Stats have their place, and it's in the garbage can.

In that regard, they might consider the career of Bill Enos, who spent a lifetime scouting New England for the Boston Red Sox.
Enos scouted by sight and instinct. He sometimes would recommend players that other scouts might overlook, simply because he saw something he liked about a kid.

But isn't this exactly what Billy Beane is doing? Finding kids with good stats that the scouts are overlooking because they don't fit the image of a ballplayer? Anyway, I'm sure Garry is going to give us lots of example of Enos' outstanding finds.

Case in point would be Rich Gedman, who was drafted and signed by the Red Sox at the insistence of Enos. When Gedman played high school and American Legion ball in Worcester, he was way overweight. He had no speed and seemingly no chance of ever playing professional baseball.

Enos thought otherwise. There was something about Gedman that caught his attention. He had a nice left-handed swing, and pretty good arm strength. Gedman did a lot of pitching in junior ball. Enos thought he might do better as a catcher.

Why? How many other players had Enos seen with that swing that turned in ML ballplayers? How many fat high school pitchers turned out to be ML catchers?

As Enos followed Gedman, he did what the scouts call "projecting." That means trying to envision what kind of player a kid might be in five years. He believed Gedman would lose the baby fat as he matured. He also took into account the fact that Gedman really hadn't played much baseball, given the New England weather during the high school season. Let him play, and maybe he'd learn to hit with power.

Ahh, I've heard of this system before. Prof. Harold Hill used it in The Music Man. He called it the think system. You didn't have to take music lessons, you just had to think a song, and you could play the song. Needless to say, Harold Hill was a con man.

As Red Sox fans now know, Enos had it right. Gedman made it to the major leagues in 1980, and he had an 11-year career highlighted by a 1986 season in which he helped the Red Sox win their last pennant. He caught Roger Clemens' first 20-strikeout game, hit some dramatic homers during the stretch drive and did an outstanding job of handling the pitching staff.

As non-Red Sox fans know, Gedman had two good years, 1984 when he hit for power, and 1985 when he got on base and hit for power. He was declining in 1986, and it would be his last year as a full-time starter. So Enos' think system had gotten the Red Sox a three year starting catcher, with a career OBA of .304. Now I like Rich Gedman, and I thought the Sox treated him poorly in 1987, but I would not hold up Rich as a shining example of old-time scouting. Not when the fastest rising star in the A's system is a fat catcher who no one else in the majors even thought of drafting!

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1176	1180
Attendance	26786	27702

A great debut by Brandon Claussen tonight. He went 6 1/3 innings and allowed only 1 earned run, while striking out 5. And, on top of it all, he got his first hit and rbi! Rivera is on with the bases loaded and a four run lead in the eighth to try to nail down the win for Claussen.

Update: Rivera is not doing well. It's now 9-8.

Sabathia has gone five good innings, allowing 2 runs, but my guess is that he's near the bottom of his gas tank. He's already used 89 pitches; he went 120 in his last outing, in 6 innings. He seldom goes over 110 pitches, so I don't expect to get past the 6th in this game.

Yesterday, the Red Sox were 2nd in the majors in runs per game, trailing Toronto 6.24 to 6.07. Today, they lead Toronto 6.31 to 6.24.

A couple of good pitching matchups today. The Windy City series pits Carlos Zambrano vs. Bartolo Colon. Each has pitched better than his record. Neither has gotten very good run support this year. Colon has the 11th lowest run support in the majors, and 7th lowest in the AL (3.78). Zambrano has the 25th lowest run support in the majors, and 14th in the NL (4.33). Look for a double shutout. :-)

The other good matchup is on the West Coast as Barry Zito crosses the bay to face Kirk Rueter. Both have won 7 games, although Zito has pitched better. Rueter is one of two NL ERA qualifiers who has walked more than he has struck out, the other being his teammate Damian Moss. I wonder how long either will be successful with that ratio.

Giant rookies Jerome Williams now has 2 wins, both against the cross-bay rival Oakland A's. And, just like Thursday's A's win was Billy Beane's dream, last night's loss was his nightmare. William threw only 96 pitches to shutout the A's; that's the third lowest total for a nine-inning complete game this year:

Pitcher	Date	Pitches
Bartolo Colon	6/7/2003	87
Carl Pavano	5/26/2003	87
Jerome Williams	6/27/2003	96
Mark Mulder	4/24 & 4/30/2003	96
David Wells	4/10/2003	87

The A's drew only one walk against a pitcher who had walked 18 in his first five starts. All seven hits were singles, while the Giants unloaded for 3 HR, two off Lilly. Seems that weakness of Ted's returned last night. Meanwhile, Williams is becoming a fan favorite.

Wi Everts has a blog called Wiltopia. Among other things, Wil writes about baseball from time to time. Check him out and say hi.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1160	1165
Attendance	26636	27560

40,189 In Kansas City last night. Only 24,000 in Toronto for what should be a very good series between two good Canadian clubs. KC should boost the numbers this weekend.

The KC Royals are showing the Cardinals something tonight. They are up 5-3 in the top of the 8th, despite having only 3 hits. The Cardinals have 3 errors and have allowed 3 unearned runs.

Darrell May pitched seven quality innings. He gave up five hits and walked only 1. He threw strikes, with 63 of 93 pitches going his way.

The Diamondbacks have now won 9 in a row, with a 8-3 victory over the Tigers. Usually, when teams have long winning streaks, they are dominating the competition. But this is only the second game of the streak where the DBacks have won by more than 2 runs! It's been a bit of a lucky streak, but it's gotten them back in the NL West race.

Shannon Stewart was with a HR tonight. Since returning from his injury, he's 10 for 22 with three doubles and five HR. Now that's what I call a rehab. :-)

It looks like Duckworth had to leave after the first inning with a contusion to his right fore arm. The bullpen has been great, allowing four hits and 0 runs in 6 1/3 innings so far. Meanwhile, Jason Johnson has pitched eight five-hit innings, allowing 1 run, with the score tied at 1.

The Red Sox scored 14 runs in the first inning. The first two pitcher for the Marlins faced 11 batters without getting an out. Four Red Sox starters have 3 hits. Five players have at least 3 RBI. It's 20-5 in the 6th inning, and Nomar doesn't have an RBI yet. Kim is pitching well; 4 of his five runs were unearned.

Josh Schulz points out Redbird Nation responded this morning to the Posnanski column in my previous post. It was about demographics!

Let’s answer Posnanski’s points one at a time. As for attendance, it’s true – St. Louis draws the fifth-most fans in baseball. Last year we were sixth. The year before, seventh.

But is it really fair to compare St. Louis, with a metro area of 2.6 million people, with New York and Los Angeles, which attract fans from populations of 21.2 million and 16.4 million? Given our relatively tiny market size, St. Louis does spectacularly well in attendance.

I guess all my brain cells haven't died yet. :-)

Craig Stambaugh, an admitted Cubs fan, enjoyed this Joe Posnanski column in the KC Star about why the Cardinals fans are baseball's best fans.

So, I do know for certain that Cardinals fans are baseball's best. I'm not questioning this for one minute. The only thing that confuses me is, well, forgive me here, I'm not quite sure how Cardinals fans became the best.

I had assumed it was because more of them go to baseball games that any other city. This seemed logical. But then I looked and saw that the Cardinals are actually fifth in attendance this year, which is good, don't get me wrong, please don't e-mail me, but unless my math is off, that doesn't make them the best.

So, I thought obviously this was just an off year for Cardinals fans. Hey, everybody is entitled to an off year. Harrison Ford has had a few lately. The only thing is, last year the Cardinals were actually sixth in attendance. And they were seventh the year before that.

At this pace, they will be No. 1 by 2007, which is quite good.

Still, the billboard doesn't say, "Looking forward to 2007, when we are projected to be baseball's best fans," or "Always among baseball's top 10 fans." And it also doesn't say "Baseball's best fans in 1987," which was the last time (and only time since 1970) the Cardinals actually led the major leagues in attendance.

So, obviously, there is something more subtle behind this whole "baseball's best fans," title, something that goes beyond those arbitrary and confusing "statistics," which merely show "how many fans show up."

Read the whole thing.

I first heard about this a few years ago when Peter Gammons brought it up at a Baseball Tonight meeting. I think it has to do with the number of fans per capita. Or maybe St. Louis just wants to be the best at something besides cheap, lousy beer. :-)

There is a petition on the internet aimed at convincing David Glass not to trade Carlos Beltran. Take a look, and if you agree, you may sign on-line.

Josh Schulz of the St. Louis Cardinals blog responds to the previous post.

Just so we're clear here: It's now been 18 years since the Royals won a world series.

Since that world series the Cardinals have been to the playoffs 5 times, and made it to the world series once. They've been over .500 10 times in those 18 years.

It's been 9 years since the Royals were over 500. In the 18 years since that World Serires the Royals have been over .500 6 times. They havn't been back to the playoffs since.

The most games the Royals have won in a season is 92 in 1989.

The Cardinals won 97 last year, 93 the year before (2001), 95 in 2000, and 95 in 1987.

The Cardinals lost 92 games in 1990. The Royals lost 100 last year, 97 in 2001, 97 in 1999, and 94 in 1997.

You won a world series. Congrats! But in every other measure of team competency the Royals come out behind the Cardinals.

We're not conceited, we're convinced.

In the Cardinals defense, they are the Yankees of the National League. In fact the DBacks and Cardinals are the only NL teams with winning records against the Yankees in World Series play (the Cardinals have won 3 of 5 played against the Yankees). And with nine world Championships, the Cardinals have the most in the NL. Meanwhile, if memory serves, the Royals only beat the Yankees once in the post season.

Of course, if it gets around that the Cardinals are the Yankees of the NL, no one outside of St. Louis will like them anymore...

Brian Hipp writes me that the Royals are expecting 120,000 for the weekend series vs. the Cardinals.

Even though they're not in our division, this is the biggest series of the year for most Royals fans, as it is our chance to put snobby Cardinals fans in their place and remind them that we won the 1985 World Series, that they haven't won a World Series in 21 years, and that of the 9 World Series Titles they always talk about, we're pretty sure 7 of them came in the 1920s and 30s, so we're not real impressed. Yes, we will concede that the Gas House Gang was a great team and Frankie Frisch was quite a hurler, but let's get real, Cards fans.

We also get to remind Cardinals fans that although Don Denkinger blew that call, it occurred in Game 6, and we did win Game 7 11-0. It's not Denkinger's fault that Jaoquin Andujar had a meltdown and the rest of the Cards folded the next day. The Reds still won the 75 World Series after Fisk's famous shot, but the Cardinals just bitched and whined and gave up in 85.

We might have a bigger rivalry in our division if our closest foe wasn't 8 hours from here.

Any snobby Cardinals fans want to respond?

It's good to see people are starting to turn out for the Royals games. I hope it continues when Cleveland and Detroit come to town.

Update: Shawn Weaver points out that Frankie Frisch was not a hurler.

NY, NY it's a helluva town. And it's a helluva pitching matchup tonight, the best in the majors. The Mets travel uptown to Yankee Stadium and send Jae Weong Seo against David Wells. Neither strikes out a lot of batters, but neither hurts himself with walks. Seo does a better job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 5 HR to Wells 10.

When teams face pitchers who do not issue walks, they are pretty much reduced to their batting averages. The Yankees have a big edge there, hitting .267 to the Mets .246. Of course, the Mets will be adding a DH, and Met DHs are batting .280 this year.

Just looking at last night's Athletics-Rangers boxscore. That had to be Billy Beane's dream game. The A's reached base 20 times and hit five HR, two being three-run shots. The A's pitchers struck out 9, walked none and threw strikes (80 of 114 pitches, 70%). Meanwhile, the A's hitters forced Valdes to throw 83 pitches in 3 1/3 innings, knocking him out of the game and getting into the soft middle relief for their last five runs.

On a bright note for Texas, Ron Mahay debuted and went 3 1/3 scoreless innings to finish the game out.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1145	1150
Attendance	26505	27439

Dontrelle Willis has given up four hits and a walk tonight through 4, but they are all singles and they haven't been enough to push a run across for the Mets. That's 13 scoreless innings against the Mets for Mr. Willis.

Heilman is not being supported on defense either. The Mets have made four errors so far, and the first three runs allowed have been unearned, and the fourth may be as well.

It's 8-6 Toronto over Baltimore in the bottom of the 2nd. Delgado just hit a HR off the resturant in CF. Mora is 2 for 2 to raise his BA to .372. Both have 3 RBI tonight. Wells has 2 RBI tonight, giving Wells and Delgado a combined total of 158 RBI!

Update: Just got this from my friends at STATS, Inc.

All Time RBI duos.

1931  NYY  Lou Gehrig  Babe Ruth          347

1927  NYY  Lou Gehrig  Babe Ruth          339

1930  NYY  Lou Gehrig  Babe Ruth          327

1937  NYY  Joe DiMaggio  Lou Gehrig       326

1930  ChC  Hack Wilson  Kiki Cuyler       325

New Yankee acquistion Dan Miceli is being thrown into the fire. He's coming in to his first game for the New Yorkers with men on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out.

Update: Actually, he came in with men on 1st and 3rd, and the runner on 1st stole 2nd. However, Miceli was able to get a line out to right that Tyner could not score on, then a ground out to end the inning. Of course, despite doing the tough job, Rivera will likely get the save.

Mark Buehrle had almost the exact opposite result compared to his last start against the Twins. On May 16th, he gave up 10 runs, 9 earned in 3 1/3 innings. He allowed 10 hits and 2 walks. Today he struck out 9, allowed 5 hits and only 1 earned run for the win.

I just looked at the Red Sox lineup, and Damian Jackson is playing CF today instead of Johnny Damon. He's also leading off. This reminds me of when John McNamara managed the Red Sox. Every once in a while (like when a tough lefty was on the mound) Wade Boggs would get ill and couldn't play. Ed Romero would play third instead. And leadoff. The worst hitter in the lineup, and he would leadoff because McNamara didn't want to upset the rest of the order!

Jackson has a .292 OBA. No one else in the lineup has an OBA under .349. How about moving Trot Nixon to leadoff for a day (.384 OBA), moving Mueller and Varitek up a spot, and batting Jackson 9th? Would that really upset a lot of people?

Update: Of course, Jackson leads off with a double. Billy Beane would say it's the process, not the result.

Ben Jacobs of Univeral Baseball Blog writes:

I just saw your post asking about the Indians and wanted to let you know that they have one of the deepest farm systems around. In addition to guys like Coco Crisp (OF), Jody Gerut (OF), Brandon Phillips (2B), Ben Broussard (1B) and pitchers Jason Davis, Jake Westbrook and Billy Traber who are all in Cleveland and at least some of whom should turn into quality big leaguers in the next year or two, they have a glut of talent in the minors.

Victor Martinez is their catcher in AAA and is hitting .323 (.864 OPS), although he may move out from behind the plate someday. Travis Hafner was supposed to be Cleveland's starting first baseman this year, but he struggled and then got hurt. He has a .448 OBP in 15 games in AAA. Alex Escobar hasn't done much and his progress has been slowed by injuries, but he was once a prized outfield prospect. Grady Sizemore is hitting .296 (.818 OPS) at AA and was named to the Futures All-Star game (I plan on making a post later about the players in the Futures game, I'll email you when I have it up).

And then there are the pitchers. Jeremy Guthrie, Cliff Lee, Alex Herrera, Aaron Myette, Ricardo Rodriguez and Jason Stanford are all 26 or younger and in AAA with varying degrees of success. Rafael Betancourt may be the best of the lot, with 72 strikeouts and 13 walks in 44.1 innings in AA. His 21-year-old teammates Francisco Cruceta and Fernando Cabrera are doing well also.

Basically, with the amount of talented young players the Indians have stockpiled, it will be a huge shock if they don't have a good team by 2005 or, at the latest, 2006.

Knowing this, I would change my mind and not trade Milton Bradley. Thanks for the info, Ben!

Mark Warner write regarding this post:

I found it a bit odd that you would talk about trading him for prospects. He's 25 years old! Wouldn't you rather build around a guy like that and try to trade someone like Vizquel for prospects -- assuming someone would give something for him?

Seems to me that Bradley is exactly the sort of building block you have to start with when you are trying to get up off the mat....

I have to say in general I agree with Mark, and this thought did cross my mind as I wrote the post last night. However, there are a number of things to consider:

• These stats are a small sample. His previous career wasn't like this, although, that's a small sample also.


• It's best to trade a player when he value is higher that it should be, and I think right now Bradley's value is very high.


• Keeping him or trading him depends on how deep Cleveland thinks its farm system is. If they have a number of people in AAA that are ready to help the team win, then definitely keep Bradley as the center of the new team. But if the franchise is short of prospects and isn't going to win anyway, trade Bradley for a bunch of good prospects, and get the low draft picks next year.

If someone has information on the quality of the Indians farm system, I'd love to hear about it.

Lots of afternoon action today. In what looks like a good pitching matchup, Pedro Martinez hosts Matt Roney of the Tigers. The rookie is making his 2nd start after 22 appearances in relief. He has a 3.18 ERA, although his strikeouts, walks and HR don't look that good. It turns out, however, that he's gotten batters out when there is a threat. Opponents are just 4 for 37 (.108) when men are in scoring position. The Red Sox are hitting .298 in that situation, 4th in the AL. Something has to give.

Over in the NL this afternoon, Mark Prior faces Milwaukee. Prior continues to impress. He strikes out batters, walks few and has only allowed 2 HR in Wrigley Field all year. One thing he may need to learn, however, is efficiency. In his last two starts, he hasn't been able to go past the 6th inning do to his high pitch counts.

Dontrelle Willis faces the Mets again, after throwing a 1-hitter against them in their first meeting. Willis has not been as effective on the road, posting a 4.37 ERA when away from Miami, vs. a 1.06 ERA at home. He's 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA in June, and a great game tonight might make him pitcher of the month.

At least on the East Coast. The Dodgers avoided a sweep by the Giants, shutting the San Franciscians out 6-0. Every LA starter had at least one hit, including Nomo, who also drew a walk. Nomo pitched seven innings for the win, improving his career record against the Giants to 13-4 with a 2.62 ERA. In 130 2/3 innings against the Giants, he's struck out 129.

Shawn Green had 2 hits last night, both doubles. He's been playing a bit better lately, but the walks are still not there. However, five of his last eight hits have been for extra bases.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1134	1137
Attendance	26494	27421

Milton Bradley is 2 for 2 through seven innings tonight, and continues to have a great season. He came into today tied for 6th in the majors in on-base percentage, and will have moved up by the end of the night. Unfortunately, the Cleveland offense is so weak, he's only scored 39 runs in 60 games. He done a good job of getting himself in scoring position, hitting his 23rd double tonight, and stealing 13 bases in 16 attempts. He's 25 and appears to have found his batting eye. If the Indians are looking to move someone for prospects, Milton would help a lot of teams.

5717 Watching in Montreal today. That's not very much.

Joel Moore writes about this post:

Your observation about Nomar's lack of RBI this month was interesting and puts some concrete numbers to what I'd observed in listening to and following Sox games. I do have one comment about your observation though. While his extra base hits are down a bit from last month (18 XB out of 37 H in 109 AB vs 13 XB out of 40 H in 93 AB), perhaps the lack of RBI can also be attributed to the 1 & 2 hitters for the Sox not getting extra base hits or singling and then stealing second.

Carlos Delgado's June stats make for an interesting comparison to Nomar's.

AB  R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS

73  16  20   4   0   7   26   0   0  15 .274 .426 .616 1.042

Delgado's slugging percentage is lower than Nomar's (though larger in comparison to his batting average).

The main difference seems to be in the 3B vs HR.

When I saw the 55 men on last night, that sounded reasonable to me, so I didn't check the OBA of the 1-2 hitters. Joel's letter led me to revisit that, and it turns out the tablesetters for the Red Sox have a .316 OBA in June. So Nomar hasn't had a reasonable number of runners on base in front of him. The Blue Jays 1-2 hitters have gotten on at a .356 clip in June, helping Delgado's RBI numbers. And remember, a HR guarantees you an RBI; a triple doesn't.

Cincinnati at St. Louis offers a fascinating pitching matchup. One pitcher, who has been on the scrap heap for years, starting to pitch well again. One pitcher, the star of his team, in a slump. I'm talking about Paul Wilson and Matt Morris. Wilson over his last five starts is 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA. In 33 2/3 innings, he's K'd 26 and struck out 8. Meanwhile, Matt Morris has an 8.28 ERA over his last five starts. It's not clear why. He's giving up a lot of hits. And he's getting hit at the worst time. Before May 29th, opponents were hitting just .196 against Morris with runners in scoring position. Since then, they are hitting .312.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1119	1122
Attendance	26476	27400

Nomar Garciaparra went five for five tonight, all singles. Nomar is now 40 for 93 in June, a .430 BA. Of his forty hits, 6 are doubles, 7 are triples, and none are home runs. Most amazingly, he has only 9 RBI. With his five hits tonight, he had no RBI! He's batting third on a high scoring team. With a BA like that, you'd think he'd be driving in runs left and right.

Nomar has had opportunities. He's come up with 55 men on base this month, 30 in scoring position. He's only driven in nine. He's hitting .391 with men in scoring position. He hasn't been intentionally walked. The real problem seems to be the lack of HR, or to put it another way, a truck load of singles. The number three slot needs to generate power, and Nomar isn't doing that. He's driving in single runs with singles, but he's not driving in people from farther back on the basepaths.

I don't mean this to criticize Nomar. Any month where your BA is .430 is a good month. But until his power comes back, the Red Sox might want to move him to second, and Kevin Millar to third.

Update: You can read more here.

Looks like Juan Gonzalez has rejected the trade, mentioned below.

While I was reading Moneyball, I came across something interesting. I believe Lewis asked DePodesta what he thought of the On-Base+Slugging stat. DePodesta thought that OBA was worth about three times the player's slugging percentage. So I thought I'd figure out a variation of OBA+Slugging, which is a weighted average of the two (3*OBA+Slugging)/4. Click below for a list of this stat for all ML regulars, and the comparison OBA+Slugging:

Esteban Loaiza is pitching another gem. He has a shutout through five and has struck out 6. Reed is also pitching well, but has allowed 2 runs through six.

Denny Hocking just made one of the best slides I've ever seen. He was trying to stretch a single into a double, and was out by a mile. But SS Jose Valentin, covering 2nd, was deked. Hocking stopped his slide short of the bag. Valentin swiped up with the ball, missed Hocking, and Denny got his foot in under the glove. The ump was right on the play and correctly called him safe.

If this is true, then it looks to me like the Expos are going to try to win in what is likely to be their last season in Canada. The Expos are getting Juan Gonzalez from the Rangers, although it's not clear what they are giving up, or how much of Juan's salary the Rangers are going to pay.

The Dallas Morning News has more information (registration required). Looks like the Rangers have their eyes on two pitching prospects:

The Rangers have made no secret - and their record certainly bears it out - of their need for pitching. Two Montreal prospects they may have zeroed in on are right-handed pitchers Chris Young and Josh Karp.

Young, a 24-year-old, 6-10 right-hander who played basketball at Princeton, is a native of Dallas. He was 11-9, 3.11 last season at Class A Hickory. This season, he was 4-1, 1.22 at Class A Brevard County before being promoted June 1 to Double-A Harrisburg.

Karp, 23, is a 6-5 right-hander. He was 7-5, 3.84 last season at Double-A Harrisburg and 4-1, 1.59 at Class a Brevard. This season he is 2-1, 3.86 at Double-A Harrisburg.

Young looks like a really good prospect. So far, in his minor league career, he's struck out 250 in 273 1/3 innings, while walking only 61. I'm not as impressed with Karp's numbers. This year, in 52 innings he's only K'd 36 while walking 23. Then again, he's probably better than most on the Rangers staff. Michael Barrett make also go to the Rangers to lessen the impact of Juan's salary.

Gonzalez still has power, but his OBA (.319) is poor. But him behind some guys who get on, and he'll drive in runs, however. If I were Minaya, I'd do just this, trade my prospects for vets who can get me into the playoffs. He has nothing to lose.

Nice pitching duel in Pittsburgh. Ohka and D'Amico are throwing strikes; 83 of the 124 pitches thrown so far by both hurlers have been for strikes. Ohka has four K's through 5 and only allowed 1 hit. D'Amico has let his fielders help him, with only 1 K and 1 BB through 4 2/3. Looks like not too many sparks are flying from the hitters sticks.

Update: Well, the last four innings were nothing like the first five. The Expos scored 3 in the six and 3 in the 7th, the first two unearned. Brad Wilkerson hit for the cycle, hitting his 19th double, his 2nd triple and his 9th HR. Way to go, Brad! Biddle pitched a shakey ninth, but had 2 K to record his 21st save.

The White Sox visit the HHH Metrodome today, 5 1/2 games behind the division leading Twins. The White Sox could use a sweep of this three-game series to get back into the race. They will be sending out the AL's ERA leader, Esteban Loaiza to the mound. Loiaza has walked 25 men in a little over a 100 innings this year, but only 5 in his last 34 2/3. He'll face Rick Reed, another master of the strike zone. However, balls have been flying out of the Metrodome on Reed; he's given up 7 of his 9 HR at home.

Kevin Millwood returns to Atlanta to night to face Russ Ortiz. Ortiz has been a good replacement for Millwood (although it's hard to say who replaced whom in the Atlanta rotation). Millwood got hit hard by the Braves last week, allowing 8 hits, 3 walks and 4 ER in 5 IP.

Finally, the LA-SF series continues, with Odalis Perez taking on Jason Schmidt. Schmidt has allowed a 2.13 ERA over his last 5 games, but has only a 2-2 record to show for it. Perez, on the other hand, has been poor over his last five, with the caveat that in one of those starts he got bombed in Colorado, and that last time out he pitched well against the Giants but lost.

A good column today by Rob Neyer on Tiger's pitcher Jeremy Bonderman. Rob is rightly impressed by Bonderman's last three starts.

Congratulations to Barry Bonds on reaching 500 SB. I'm not a huge fan of the SB, and Barry would be going into the Hall of Fame without them. However, Barry is the kind of player you want stealing bases, because he steals for quality. In other words, he steals at a high enough percentage to actually help his team.

For his career, Barry is 500 for 640 on steal attempts, a 78.1 percentage. Breakeven is around 67%. (See Pete Palmer's Hidden Game of Baseball.) Over the last five years, he's become even more opportunistic, stealing 55 of 65, and he's 7-0 this year. Just another example of how Barry Bonds does offense right.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1104	1107
Attendance	26473	27433

A reader noticed this strange first inning:

Did you notice the play-by-play for the bottom of the first inning in today's LA-SF game?

• R. Durham singled to right


• P. Feliz struck out looking


• R. Durham to second on wild pitch


• M. Grissom struck out swinging


• R. Durham to third on wild pitch


• B. Bonds struck out swinging

Essentially the inning went: Durham takes a base. Strikeout. Durhm takes a base. Strikeout. Durham takes a base. Strikeout.

Odd.

Indeed. One of the things I love about baseball is that you see something new everyday. I bet it's pretty rare tha a pitcher throws two wild pitches in an inning and doesn't allow a run.

Shannon Stewart is back from his injury and went 3 for 6 with 2 runs scored and a HR. Reed Johnson, Carlos Delgado and Tom Wilson joined Stewart with three hits each as the Blue Jays routed the Orioles 13-4. Toronto is now only 1 game behind the Yankees, and they are hitting on all cylinders. They went 14-7 without Stewart; their offense should be even better now.

Damien Rolls had three hits and two HR tonight to help the DRays beat the Yankees and Roger Clemens 4-2. Both HR were off Clemens. They were Rolls first HR of the year, and the first he's hit since 2001. In fact, the two long flys doubled Rolls career HR total! Coming into the game, Rolls had 14 hits, 13 for singles (1 double). An unlikely hero, but that's what makes baseball different from other major sports. The worst hitter on the team can win a game for you.

One of the stars of Moneyball is Scott Hatteberg. Beane saw value where everyone else saw a washed up catcher. It just paid off for Beane again. Despite pitching okay, Zito looked like he was going to pick up his first loss at the hands of the Rangers, 1-0. But Urbina gave up a hit, a walk and a bunt single on a sacrifice attempt. He struck out Byrnes looking, but on a 1-0 pitch, Hatteberg got a fat one and ripped it into right for a bases clearing double. A's are up 3-0, batting now with two out, and Foulke will be coming in for a save. It's Urbina's fourth blown save of the year.

Brian Schneider went 2 for 3 for the Expos tonight. He's now batting .248, but with a .355 OBA and a .450 slugging percentage. Michael Barrett, the other catcher, is hitting .153 with a .220 OBA and a .277 slugging percentage. They have split time pretty evenly behind the plate. Why? Why not make Schneider the regular catcher?

If you look at the ERA when catching, it becomes clear. Barrett's pitchers have a 3.51 ERA, Schneider's have a 4.33 (including the shutout tonight). That's 0.8 runs per nine innings. For Schneider, he'd need to create 129 more runs than Barrett to make up for his pitchers ERA. That's not going to happen. So both catch. Interestingly, neither makes much of a difference to Vazquez and Vargas. So Barrett can catch the hurlers who need his help, and Schneider can catch the guys who can use the offensive support.

I just finished reading Moneyball by Michael Lewis. I enjoyed the book throughly, despite the obsenities. Lewis understands exactly what Beane is doing. He understands because, like many of us, he read Bill James and appreciated Bill James in the 1980's. Most of the time I was reading I was saying to myself, "I knew that 20 years ago. Why don't teams realize the truth of what's going on?"

This book makes me want to be a GM. What Beane is doing was obvious to me back when the new labor deal was signed after the 1994 strike. All I heard from people after that contract was there was no way poor teams could compete. You had to have money to compete. I would say, "That's not true. There's more than one way to win at baseball. Someone will find a way to win with young players who aren't paid that much. It may take a few years for a team to figure it out, but some team will." No one believed me. Even when the A's started winning, no one believed me. But by the end of that contract, the A's had figured it out. The Twins, in a different way, figured it out. The Blue Jays have figured it out, and the Red Sox are figuring it out. I suspect Pittsburgh is figuring it out.

I'd love to be GM of KC or Detroit or Montreal and do what Beane has done. I'd love to be the GM of a little independent league team and pull these overlooked players out of college, develop them, and sell them to the majors. Beane has taken Bill James and put him to practical use, and it works. I'd love to give it a try.

Robert Tagorda at Priorities and Frivolities has his take on Matt Welch's article on Bill James.

Brad Rigby writes:

Your assertion that the DH should be the best hitter on the team, bar none, ("DHs should be doing at least as well as the first basemen.") seems a bit suspect to me. Certainly batting requires different skills from fielding, but the two overlap at least a little bit, don't they? The best athlete on the team naturally will be more likely to be the best hitter on the team, and if he's the best athlete on the team, the team will naturally want him in the field. The best illustration of this would be A-Rod, but I will admit he's the exception to the rule.

So let me postulate the existence of two players, A and B. Other than the speed they run, they are exactly equal -- same attitude, same bat speed, same patience at the plate, same resilience to injury, same ability to judge a ball in flight, etc. Yes I realize this is simplistic, but hypotheticals usually are. A just happens to be able to run faster than B. Let's say that A and B are far and away the best offensive players on their team, but neither are particularly good defensively. Which one do you put in the field? A, of course, because he'll be able to cover more ground in left field. But he's better offensively; because of his speed, he'll be able to leg out more doubles and infield hits.

Replace speed with strength, or mental acuity, or whatever, and I think you can see how the better hitter will probably be in the field. And a final reason better hitters are in the field rather than DH'ing -- the best hitter on the team might be a guy who too much pride to be 'just a DH', and insists on playing in the field, so to keep their star happy, the club humors him.

Now the counter-argument to using the most valuble hitter in the field is that he might get injured there -- who knows what career numbers Griffey Jr. would have if he'd spent his whole career as a full-time DH?

I have no quibbles with making younger players DH's; indeed that portion of your argument makes perfect sense to me. Certainly your example of Edgar is a perfect illustration; John Jaha comes to mind as well.

Let me say that off the top of my head, I disagree with this. I believe the flaw in the logic is assuming that the faster of the two would be the defensive player. Brad assumes this because he thinks the faster one will be put in left field, but if they are the best offensive players and the worst defensive players, then you put one at first base, where speed is not very important.

And by Brad's description, you are talking about a very small difference between the players. It's not like the speed of the faster player is going to add that many hits.

Secondly, the best athlete on the team may not be the best hitter. Cecil Fielder was the best hitter on the 1990 Tigers. I don't think he was the best athlete. Going back even further in history, Ernie Lombardi was one of the great hitters of all time, and no one would ever consider him the best athlete on the team.

Who's the best hitter on the Yankees? Giambi. Who's the best athlete? Probably Soriano or Matsui. Being the best hitter requires a good batting eye. Yes it requires you to be strong, but if you see the ball and meet it, you are going to hit it hard.

Let me give you a concrete example. Do you know who can drive a golf ball the farthest among the folks at ESPN? Karl Ravech. Karl is not a big guy. He's not the best athlete. But Karl has a great swing. He keeps his eye on the ball, he stays relaxed, and he hits it a mile.

A few years ago I was down at Disney World for spring training, and we went over to watch the Braves play the Mets. We were on the field for batting practice, and I was watching Piazza and Olerud hit. Piazza was all strength. To watch him hit up close, it looked like every muscle in his body was working to hit the ball hard. His drives were amazing. John Olerud on the other hand, was effortless. His swing was smooth and fluid. Where Piazza looked like he was willing all his strength through his bat, Olerud bat's was part of his being.

My point is that there are many different ways to be a successful hitter. You can be all athleticism and muscle, like Piazza. You can have the good batting eye and smooth swing of John Olerud. You can be a fat tub of goo like Cecil Fielder, or keep the body of a 20 year-old your whole career, like Rickey Henderson. Not all great hitters look like the greatest athletes.

So yes, on an individual team, it's possible that the better fielder will be the better hitter. But my guess is that you will always find someone who's a little better that can only hit.

Certainly the biggest game of the day involves the two teams tied for the NL West lead, the Giants and the Dodgers. Ishii faces Rueter, and both are 7-2. Over their last five games, however, Ishii has a 2.70 ERA, while Rueter has been roughed up for a 5.28 ERA.

One of my favorites of this year, Shawn Chacon faces winless Kevin Jarvis in SD. Chacon has not allowed a HR on the road this year, and only six at Coors.

Barry Zito travels to Texas with the A's to take on the Rangers. Zito is 9-0 vs. the Rangers in 14 starts (the team is 13-1 in those starts). He's 5-0 in Arlington in six starts, and the Rangers have hit just .201 off him there.

Barron Sopchak writes about this post:

Your post about how AL teams need to find young hitters to DH seems to already have been implemented in Toronto. Josh Phelps is a 25 year old hitter, who appears to have little to no value in the field. This looks like what the A's did with Jeremy Giambi, too. I think it's likely that Matt Stairs would also have DH'ed in Oakland if John Jaha hadn't still been effective.

I think the lesson we learn from this is that if you think something should be done a certain way, look at Oakland (and Toronto) and see if they're already doing it. :)

Yes, and soon we'll be saying that about the Red Sox.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1096	1099
Attendance	26490	27429

Attendance has been on the rise, but the comparison with last year shows it is a seasonal trend. This year's attendance is staying stubbornly about 1000 below last year's on average. But now that school is out and the weather is getting warmer (not on the East Coast, but I assume in the rest of the country) people are showing up for ball games. And there are five good pennant races out there, and if the Phillies luck has changed, there may soon be six.

Ben Jacobs over at Univeral Baseball Blog took my comment about the Blue Jays offense being better than it was in '92-'93 and broke it down.

This is what I love about the internet. You throw out an idea and people run with them. Thanks, Ben!

If you are watching the Yankee-Mets game, I hope you saw the two plate appearances by Jorge Posada and Juan Rivera. It says a lot about why Posada is a very good offensive player and Juan Rivera isn't.

Posada came in as a pinch hitter in the ninth. Benitez had walked the three left-handed batters he faced in the 9th, and got the two righties to fly out. Posada took six pitches and drew a walk. Only one of the called strikes was really a strike, and Posada was willing to wait for a pitch down the middle, or not swing.

Rivera then pinch hit for the pitcher. He took the first pitch for a ball, the second for a strike, then on the third pitch, he swung. He wasn't thinking about looking for his pitch, he was thinking about swinging. He swung at ball two, low and outside. He grounded weakly to second.

Benitez had problems finding the plate that inning. Eventually, he was going to have to throw a fast ball down the middle or lose the lead. Rivera did not have the disipline to wait for that pitch. Or if it never came, to draw the walk and drive in the go-ahead run that way. That is why there is a 120 point difference between the OBA of Jorge Posada and Juan Rivera.

I noticed that the Arizona Diamondbacks have a five game winning streak, and as I looked at their game log for the last five days, one name kept popping up: Jose Valverde. In the last five wins, Valverde has 4 saves and a victory. Valverde is a 23 year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. He's six foot four and 254 pounds. I have not seen him pitch yet, but he must be an intimidating presence on the mound. He's had an interesting minor league career. In rookie leagues, he K'd 71 batters in 40 1/3 innings, while walking 14. When he moved up to A ball, however, his walk totals started going up. In 34 1/3 A ball innings, he struck out 42 but walked 27. He then moved to AA and struck out 72 in 41 1/3 innings, while walking 27. In two triple A season, he struck out 91 in 76 2/3 innings and walked 37. He gave up 8 HR in 2002, but four in the rest of his minor league career (which started in 1999).

Since being called up, he has made 10 appearance, converted all seven of his save opportunities, walked five and struck out 15, in 10 innings. I'm not crazy about the walk totals, but that may not matter. The opposition can't get a bat on the ball; if he walks a few batters, no one else is driving them in. And he has a history of not allowing HR, which makes the walks eaiser to tolerate.

I have a mental picture of this guy being selectively wild and having batters quavering in their boots. An old ESPN scouting report says he can hit 96 MPH with his fastball. That and flaky control means that hitters won't be digging in against him.

I also like his attitude. Check out this quote:

Valverde has pitched in five straight games, recording four saves and a win. ''I'm ready anytime,'' Valverde said through an interpreter. ''When Brenly says 'this is the ball, can you go the mound,' I'm going to say yes.''

Go get'm, Jose.

I just updated this post.

Barry Bonds comes up against Keith Foulke with two out and none on in the top of the ninth, Oakland leading 6-5. The A's intentionally walk Bonds! Foulke will pitch instead to Galarraga. I don't like that strategy at all. I hope Andres takes one deep.

Update: Galarraga hits a deep foul ball down the right field line that is caught for the third out. A's win, 6-5.

Matt Welch writes about Bill James and the book Moneyball. (Link via Instapundit). I like the way Matt refers to himself as a Jamesian. I, too, consider myself a Jamesian.

I just picked up my copy of Moneyball and I'll be writing more about it when I'm done reading.

In my previous post, I was writing about DHs, and I wondered about two things; were the DHs the best hitters on the team, and how much older were DHs than the rest of their fielding teammates. The following table tries to show each of these:

Hitting, 1987-2002	Age per PA	OBA+ Slug
As ss	25.5	0.695
As cf	26.0	0.752
As 2b	26.3	0.721
As rf	26.4	0.798
As 1b	26.7	0.823
As 3b	26.8	0.755
As c	26.9	0.709
As lf	27.1	0.786
All DH	29.7	0.781

Notice that the DH for the years in question is less offensively valued than the first baseman, the rightfielder and the leftfielder. DHs should be doing at least as well as the first basemen. Secondly, look at the age discrepency between the DH and the leftfielder. DHs are more than a year and a half older than the oldest position player! Ballplayers peak around age 27, and that (not surprising) is the age of the oldest fielding position. Yet DHs are nearly 30 years old, approaching the age where their production will be falling off.

So while I don't mind the concept of the DH, I don't like the implementation at all. Instead of putting young, stud hitters who can't field at DH, old, formerly good hitters are inserted in the slot. Instead of leaving baseball because they can no longer field, they are kept around at inflated salaries taking up a slot a younger, better and cheaper player could be using.

So why not a 22 year-old DH? I think it's the way clubs perceive players. If you can't field when you are 22, you can't be a real ball player. It's okay for your skills to decline as you age, but they want you to have the skills to begin with. But why not bring up the kid you can't field? There's always going to be some other 22 year-old waiting to take his place. Instead of paying millions to some slugger in his late 30's, spend the money on a real fielder, and pay some kid near the minimum. It makes sense to me. What do others think?

Update: I sometimes forget that not all readers of this site are as versed in the Jamesian way of thinking about baseball as I am. The author of binarytoybox.com didn't quite understand what I was driving at in this post, and that's my fault for not being clear. Let me try again.

In the first Bill James Abstract I owned, the 1983 edition, Bill discusses the defensive spectrum. This is what it looks like:

P  SS  C  2B  CF  3B  RF  LF  1B  DH

The farther to the left you are on this spectrum, the more your defense is valued. That is because these are tough defensive positions to play. The more you move to the right, the more your offense is valued. This is why the Yankees were not afraid to replace Tino Martinez with Jason Giambi. If you look at the OPS column in the table above, you see that the ranking of OPS almost exactly matches the defensive spectrum. RF is better than LF is OPS, but that may be due to more leadoff types being used in left field over the last 15 years. But the big discrepency is DH. Instead of having the highest OPS by position, DH is fourth.

My argument is that teams have a position where all the player has to worry about is offense, and yet they don't go out to find a player who's only value is great offense to fill it. Edgar Martinez is what a DH should be, and he didn't become a full-time DH until he was 30 years old. Edgar didn't get fully out of the minors until he was 26. I'm not sure why, but I bet because no one thought he was a great third baseman. But if the Mariners had realized when he was 21 that all he was going to be was a hitter, he could have been a 21-year-old DH who hit like crazy, took pitches that wore down the opposing pitcher, and be flirting with 3000 hits. Take your aging slugger, and trade him to someone who thinks aging sluggers are valuable. If you are going to use a DH, fill it with some stud with hand of iron and a .380 OBA and a .500 slugging percentage.

Only two AL teams won interleague games yesterday, the White Sox and the Mariners. The NL is now 109-84 vs. the AL this year. But before you are too impressed with that number, there's a bit of luck involved. The NL has outscored the AL 975-943, which would indicate that the W-L should be 100-93. The NL has a big advantage in close game (games decided by 1 or 2 runs) 54-37.

It's also interesting to note that the NL's DH's are hitting better in head-to-head competition with the AL and the NL pitchers are hitting better than the AL pitchers. I'm pretty agnostic about the DH. I enjoy watching games with it or without it. But one reason I'd like to see it go is that the role is not used properly. The DH, with the least defensive responsibility, should be the best hitter on the team on average. That has not been true during the history of the DH. I think the reason the NL has better DH numbers is that NL teams have to keep a couple of guys on the bench who can hit, because they constantly have to pinch hit for pitchers, or they have to keep a couple of fielders on the bench because they have a slugger who can't field. Either way, they tend to put a DH who can hit into the lineup, either putting in their great pinch hitter, or moving a poor fielding slugger out of the field for a day (Mike Piazza). I'm going to try to explore this issue more fully later.

Last Monday, I reported on the boost interleage play had given attendance. Elephants in Oakland leveled this criticism, noting that a number of other factors might have contributed to this rise in attendance. So I said I'd check this Monday-Thursday of non-interleague with last Monday-Thursday of interleague. The Elephants are a smart animals. June 9th through June 12th, inclusive, the average attendance for the interleague games played was 23,754. For June 16th through 19th inclusive, the average attendance for non-interleague games was 25,810. And that's with disappointing attendance for the big series in KC.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1081	1084
Attendance	26339	27363

A few weeks ago, while my mother was in the hospital, I got to spend a lot of time with my dad, listening to Yankee games (since he doesn't get them on basic cable). During that time, Toronto kept winning. At one point, my dad said to me, "The Blue Jays are going to beat them both (Yankees and Red Sox)."

I'm starting to believe my dad may be right. The Jays are currently up 5-1 on the Expos in the 6th inning; if they win the game they will be one game ahead of the Red Sox and 1 game behind the Yankees. The question for me is, does Ricciardi have the same mid-season trading accumen as his good friend, Billy Bean? If Ricciardi can pick up a cheap pitcher to help them out, this team will win. Take a look at this boxscore; there isn't a bad OBA among the starters; there isn't a bad slugging percentage among the starters. Even the SS and 2B have slugging percentage above .400. This is exactly the kind of offense that Billy Beane tries to create. This may very well be a better offensive team than the back-to-back WS champions. I can't wait to see how the Blue Jays play out over the full season.

Boston at Philadelphia offers a great pitching matchup, as Pedro Martinez takes on Randy Wolf. Wolf has 86 K in 90 IP, and Pedro has struck out 33 in his last 28 innings, while walking only three. Pedro is still on a pitch count, so we'll how long he'll last.

Impressive rookie Dontrelle Willis faces Jason Standridge in Miami. Willis is 5-0, with a 0.96 ERA over his last 5 games. Miguel Cabrera won the game with a walk off HR last night, a great way to debut in the majors.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1067	1070
Attendance	26194	27274

The Tigers have found a place they can hit. They have 5 hits in 2 innings in Colorado, a single, a double, a triple and two HR! They lead the Rockies 4-2 early.

Jose Lima has not had a good year since 1999, but he's going toe-to-toe with Matt Morris tonight, and leading 1-0. He's only given up 2 hits in four innings, and the Cardinals are 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position.

Update: In the fifth, Lima singled and scored on a bases clearing double by Raul Ibanez. Royals now lead 5-0, and Morris is on the ropes.

Brad Radke is twirling a nice game against the Brewers so far. Two hits, no runs and three K through four innings so far. However, he's pitched much better on the road this year, with a 2.72 ERA on the road, while he's been lit up for a 8.93 ERA at home.

An interesting line for Sidney Ponson through five innings:

5 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 5 BB, 0 K.

Lots of 5's where you don't want them. Meanwhile, Maddux is masterful, allowing only 1 hit through six, a double to Brian Roberts, no walks, and he leads 5-0. He's also done it with only 66 pitches.

Jim Bouton has a new book about trying to save Wahconah Park in Pittsfield, Massachusetts. If you are interested, he'll be signing books at the Barnes and Noble in Holyoke Massachusetts on June 28th at 11 AM.

Jon Garland allowed his 13th HR of the year in his half of the first. He's in the bottom ten in the AL in HR allowed per 9. Entering today, balls were flying out against him at a rate of 1.45 per 9 innings.

Estes is not showing good control early, as he has already walked three batters and allowed 1 run. The bases are loaded with 2 out, and Rowand at bat.

Update: Now it's four walks. Rowand, with the walk, now has a .237 OBA. There's no excuse for that.

Update: Estes put one over the plate. Olivo put it into the stand for a grand slam. It was Olivo's first grand slam, making him for his career 2 for 3 with 2 BB and 8 RBI with the bases loaded. Estes does get the opposing pitcher Garland to get out of the inning.

The Cubs acquired SS Jose Hernandez from the Colorado Rockies for Mark Bellhorn and a minor league pitcher. I was hoping the Cub Reporter had analyzed the deal, but he's on vacation in Europe.

Jose Hernandez had a very good season last year, but almost set the strikeout record. We're not even halfway through 2003, and already he has 95 K. However, the Cubs third baseman have been so pathetic (.206 BA, .313 OBA and a horrible .286 slugging percentage) that the Cubs felt the move was needed. However, I think it's a bad sign when a hitter goes to Colorado and declines. He probably won't get on base much better than the Cubs third basemen have, but he'll hit for more power.

I find it interesting that Cleveland and Cincinnati only play one interleague series this year, especially in light of the fact that it's the bicentennial of Ohio becoming a state. Florentine Films, located just west of where I work, has made a documentary about the state. Take a look at one of the images on the film's web page.

Scott Brodeur send me this link to a post about the Clemens-Estes matchup last year. Seems things were setup before hand, and the supposed bad blood between the Yankees and Mets doesn't really exist.

Almost every game today is a regional rivalry, and so those have automatic interest. One game that doesn't fit that bill is Baltimore at Atlanta. Sidney Ponson faces Greg Maddux in this battle of Southern teams. Ponson has been pitching brilliantly over his last nine starts, going 8-1 with a 3.15 ERA. He has good strikeout numbers, good walk numbers and has only allowed 2 HR. And Baltimore's offense is a force to be reckoned with. One of my favorite measures of offensive ability is road runs/game. It tends to put teams on an even keel. The top road offenses this year:

Team	Road Runs per Game
Yankees	6.82
Mariners	6.52
Blue Jays	5.95
Red Sox	5.90
Orioles	5.88

The Braves are a good offensive team at home (5.52 runs per game, 6th in the majors). So we'll see tonight if good pitching stops good hitting.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1053	1055
Attendance	26095	27233

I don't know how I missed this excellent Rob Neyer take down of Bud Selig, but here it is.

I do disagree with Rob on one thing, however:

"... I feel very comfortable with where we are," Selig recently told Sean McAdam. "The season is a journey. The NFL weights its schedule, and ours is almost identical."

Yes, the season is a journey. And for many years, it was a long journey that did a pretty fair job of rewarding the best teams at the end of the journey. But beginning with the introduction of divisional play in 1969, and then accelerating rapidly with the introduction of interleague play, wild cards, and teams essentially making their own schedules in the late 1990s, baseball has substantially changed the nature of the journey, with luck playing a bigger part than ever before in who's rewarded.

But it's OK, because that's how the NFL does things.

In this post, I suggest a weighted schedule as a way reducing introducing parity, so you don't have the Tigers losing 110 games. It's another thing, like revenue sharing, that might help kick start some poor franchises and let them bring fans back.

But it's not what I really want. What I want is the majors to go back to 24 teams, and instead of contracting teams, create a super minor league. I detail that proposal here.

Although they lost big today, the KC Royals did draw 22,559 for the finale of the series, the best crowd of the week. Good to see the fans coming out for an afternoon game, and good to see the attendance increasing as they won.

Chris Stynes has appeared to regain his stroke in Colorado this year. He had not been the same since he left Cincinnati. Through two innings tonight, he's batting .286 with a .373 OBA and a .472 slugging percentage. He has a grand slam tonight, the first of his career.

Miguel Tejada broke out of his slump today. He was 12 for 62 in June, a .194 BA. Tejada went 5 for 5 today to raise his June BA to .254. He also had a double and a HR.

Jamie Moyer pitched a great game, but not great enough as Ramon Ortiz combined with two relievers to shut out the Seattle Mariners. It's the third time the Mariners have been shut out this year. Moyer has now given up 9 HR, 6 of them solo shots.

The fourth installment of this discussion is here.

James Joyner passed this story on to me, about the Southeastern League, and how old pros are getting a second chance in these independent leagues. Im my part of the country, we have the Atlantic League that does the same thing. More importantly, these indies offer low priced baseball, but baseball that is devoted to winning championships rather than developing players. The Bridgeport team has developed a loyal following, while the New Haven AA team has seen attendenance steadily decline. I think the competitiveness of the indies makes a difference.

Red Sox Nation tells me their link wasn't working properly before. They have many more post than you might have seen if you tried earlier. You may want to take a second look.

The Sox and Sox have gone to extra innings in Chicago. The Red Sox scored all three of their runs in the first on 1 hit, an error and three walks. The hit is the only one the Red Sox have gotten all game. Otherwise, a well pitched game on both sides.

The Twins are playing like the Vikings today, scoring 14 runs through six innings. Christian Guzman is four for four with four runs scored. That's raised his pathetic OBA to .302. Why he's batting 2nd is beyond me.

Albie Lopez went four innings and gave up seven runs. Albie Lopez relieved him, and not to be outdone, gave up 7 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Albie's ERA is now 12.71. One wonders how long he'll stay in the majors.

Nice comeback for the Phillies today, mostly against John Smoltz. After going 7 1/3 hitless innings, Hampton gave up consecutive hits to Byrd and Perez. That put men on 1st and 2nd. Smoltz came in after a wild pitch and an out, Polanco drove both in with a single, giving Smoltz the blown save.

With Smoltz still in in the 9th, Burrell doubled, and after a fly out, Rollins singled home pinch-runner Michaels. Smoltz had only allowed 2 of 10 inherited runners to score before today. It's only his 2nd blown save.

Marlon Byrd breaks it up with 1 out in the eighth. By the way, Gary Sheffield hit a second HR in the game, tying him with Joe DiMaggio on the all-time HR list.

Mike Hampton has a no-hitter through 7 innings.

Paul Wilson is making his 7th good start in a row. Not great, good. Over his last 6, he's 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA. He's struck out 26 and walked 8. More importantly, the Reds are 5-1 in those six starts. He's been very efficient today, using 90 pitches through seven innings, 61 of them for strikes. He's already their best starter, and if he continues to improve, he'll be a legitimate ace.

Gary Sheffield hit his 360th career HR today, tieing him with Gary Gaetti for 57th on the all-time list. Next at 361 is Joe DiMaggio.

Red Sox Nation is a new blog about the Red Sox. Not much there yet, but they do accept fist-fight challenges via e-mail. :-)

Bambino's Curse has hit the big time! Edward Cossette's excellent blog is now part of Fox Sports New England. Way to go, Edward!

By the way, if you are optimistic about the Red Sox chances, you should really use the yellow background.

Update: The red background (new, I believe) works too.

Nate Cornejo has given up just one hit, but two earned runs. Toy maker Milton Bradley hit a solo HR, and cereal tycoon Coco Crisp drew a walk, stole 2nd, was sacrificed to third, and scored on a ground out.

I have no idea if my post made a difference, but currently on ESPN.com's baseball page (at 1:09 PM EDT), the Royals story has been inserted between Millwood and Chacon.

I should mention I'm really happy to see a story about Chacon in the headlines. It points out how he's working faster on the mound this year, and that has made a difference.

A good day to play hooky from work and enjoy all the afternoon games. Eleven games are scheduled for the day light hours. In Oakland, the Rangers continue to search for pitching answers as they send their 12th starter to the mound today, tieing them with San Diego and Tampa Bay for most starting pitchers used. Lefty Mario Ramos will take on Left Mark Mulder. Ramos walked less than two per 9 in the minors this year.

Of course, the Twins-Royals series concludes this afternoon, with a win by the Royals putting them in first place by percentage points.

The Mariners have pushed the Angels below .500 and are leaving them in the dust. Jamie Moyer takes on Ramon Ortiz as Moyer tries to become the first pitcher to win 11 games this year.

Just as the Mariners are burying the Angels, Atlanta is burying the Phillies. Mike Hampton will try to put another nail in the coffin this afternoon as he faces Vincente Padilla. Padilla is 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA in his career vs. the Braves.

Finally, LA goes for a sweep of the Giants and sole possesion of first in the NL West. They'll have to beat the Giants best starter, Jason Schmidt. Schmidt is fourth in NL strikeouts with 100.

It's the 100th anniversary of Lou Gehrig's birth. The other night in Bridgeport at the Bluefish game, they were remembering Lou and selling t-shirts to help fight ALS. An ALS sufferer threw out the first pitch of the game. Although he had to be helped to the mound, he got the ball in the air to the catcher.

You can find out more about Lou at the official web site, www.lougehrig.com.

The Royals won again last night 8-6, and this time 21,000 turned out for the game. That's more like it. But there is still little buzz. The top stories on ESPN.com's baseball page right now (10:26 AM) are Wood-Clemens, Doby, Torre and Steinbrenner (please), Dodgers tie Giants, Millwood loses, Chacon wins and the eBay Scandal. Nothing about the Royals taking three to pull within a game of the Twins. Someone should let them know that the AL Central counts.

Bob Dutton has the KC Star look at the game here. You do detect a hint of excitement in his writing.

It's April all over again for the Royals, who clawed to within one game of first place with an 8-6 victory over the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium.

The Royals survived a shaky outing by starter Chris George, an injury to Mike Sweeney and several Minnesota threats over the closing innings before pulling out a third straight pulsating victory in this showdown series between the American League Central's top two teams.

I reported last night that the injury to Sweeney was in his wrist. Actually, it was tightness in his back.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1039	1040
Attendance	26095	27224

Larry Doby passed away yesterday. Doby broke the color barrier in the American League in 1947. He and Satchel Paige were the first African-Americans to win a World Series title (1948).

Just to see how good a ballplayer he was, here's his stat page from baseballreference.com. At the bottom, notice how many league top ten finishes he had, especially in OBA and Slugging Pct. He could get on base, he could hit for power, and he was a fine outfielder. Notice how his range factor is almost always above the league's.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer remembers him here. In another wire story, he's seen as Buzz Aldrin to Jackie Robinson's Neil Armstrong. That's about right. Larry Dolan, owner of the Indians, remembers him fondly.

"Larry Doby was such an exciting ballplayer," he said. "We want our young players to be just like him."

Dolan realized that Doby's death reached far beyond Cleveland.

"His loss will be felt through out baseball," said Dolan. "He was the Jackie Robinson of the American League. Where Jackie broke the color barrier with all sorts of controversy in the National League, Larry did it silently and with dignity.

Doby was overshadowed by Mickey Mantle in the 1950s, but Doby deserves to be remembered as a great hitter and a great outfielder, and for his role in helping the Indians to their last World Series title.

Alfonso Soriano swings at a pitch outside of the strike zone and at his ankles, and loops it over 2nd base to drive in the winning run. How he hit that pitch I'll never know. Good win for the Yankees, tough loss for the DRays. And one of the best pitching duels I've seen.

Lance Carter strikes out pinch hitter Todd Zeile. He must now face 0 for 5 Soriano.

Yankees have the bases loaded with 0 out in the bottom of the twelfth, tied 0-0. Not a good situation for Lance Cater.

The Twins are inching their way back into the game. They were down 5-1, then 7-3, it's now 7-5 in the top of the sixth. Former New Britian Rockcat Lew Ford continues to impress, going 1 for 3 with an RBI tonight.

Shawn Chacon is living up to his Game of the Day expectations. Through five innings, he's given up 2 hits and 1 BB, and is shutting out the Padres 1-0.

Ron Villone made his 2003 debut tonight for the Houston Astros. He just came out after 6 1/3 innings with men on first and second. It was a strong outing, allowing 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. If Lidge can get him out of this inning, he'll be in line for a win.

The Tigers avoided a shutout with a 2-out ninth inning solo HR by Eric Munson. Munson was the offense for the Tigers tonight, going 3 for 4 with a double and a HR. Not much support for Bonderman otherwise. Jason Davis gets the win to take his record to 6-5. He threw 113 pitches for the complete game win, 79 for strikes.

Not much happening through three in the Red-White Sox game. Johnny Damon has the only two hits of the game, and former Red Sox Brian Daubach is the only White Sox to reach base, via a walk.

The Royals continue to put on an offensive show for the few fans who attend their games. They are leading the Twins 5-1 in the fourth. However, Mike Sweeney has left the game with a wrist injury. He's the one players the Royals can't afford to lose for any length of time.

Clemens gets out of a 2-on, 1-out jam in the 8th by striking out Crawford and Lugo to bring his total to nine for the night.

Jose Reyes has a double, a triple and four RBI tonight. That gives him 11 RBI in 9 games. He's batting .242, but with a .455 slugging percentage through five innings tonight. Power with men on leads to RBI.

Marlon Anderson breaks up Clemens no-hitter with a one-out single. Clemens can't let up, however, since the score is still 0-0 in the 8th. Clemens has only thrown 97 pitches, so he should be good for nine innings.

Bonderman gave up three runs in the seventh, and Davis continues his shutout. If this continues, it would be the 11th time the Tigers have been held scoreless this year.

Reggie Taylor, pinch hitting for Kent Mercker, takes a change up that stayed up up the middle to break up Kerry Wood's perfecto. Wood had retired 17 in a row.

Clemens has the no-hitter through seven now. There was a slow ground ball up the middle, and I was waiting for Jeter to miss it, but he was positioned right, and made the play easily. Seven K for Clemens now.

I really don't write enough about Albert Pujols. Offensively, there is nothing missing from his game. He hits for average. He hits for power. He gets on base. He scores and drives in runs. And he doesn't strike out much. With 19 HR and 25 K, there's a chance that he could finish with more HR than K.

I just wonder about his age. He's supposed to be 23. But these stats are more consistent with someone in his mid-20s. Still, he's at a point that if he falls off 20% he'd still be a great player.

Clemens retains his no-hitter through six innings. He's K'd 7, and his only mistake was a walk to Travis Lee.

I've always been amazed that Clemens never threw a no-hitter. I attended his one-hitter against Cleveland at Fenway, and it's one of my favorite games ever.

Jason Davis and Jeremy Bonderman are locked in a 0-0 pitching duel in the Motor City. Bonderman has K'd 8 through 6 1/3, and neither pitcher has walked a batter. You have to believe the managers might be hesitant to bring the bullpen in in this one.

Wood is now perfect through five, and has added his fifth strikeout.

The Braves are not having any problems with their old teammate, Kevin Millwood. Through 3 innings, he's given up 6 hits and 3 walks, leading to four runs. Most of the damage, however, has come from Robert Fick, who hasn't played with Millwood before. Fick is 2 for 2 with 3 RBI.

Kerry Wood also has a no-hitter going. Through four innings he's retired all twelve batters, with four strikeouts.

The three early AL games are all 0-0 in the fourth. The TB-NY has a double no-hitter going.

Update: Rivera breaks up Zambrano's no-hitter. Clemens' is intact through five innings.

The three early AL games are all 0-0 in the fourth. The TB-NY has a double no-hitter going.

Scott Adcox writes in regard to the previous Cricket/Rugby post:

First of all, love your blog. I try to visit at least a couple of times each day. I was especially interested to read Casey Abell's baseball/cricket, football/rugby musing today.

This is totally unrelated to baseball, but...

As a rugby enthusiast born and bred in the U.S., I completely agree with his assertion that the main contributing factor of football's inability to spread internationally is that rugby is simply superior in every aspect. My question has always been, "Why isn't rugby more popular here in the U.S.?" Luckily for you (haha), I love nothing more than introducing people unfamiliar with rugby to the game I love!

While I realize that the point of the posting and your blog is baseball, you have a loud voice, so I'd like to take a second to dispell one of your assertions about rugby.

"I guess it's too violent for colleges to accept the liability of being responsible for every player being seriously injured"

Actually, medical studies (and personal experience) show that rugby is statistically much safer than football, especially when considering "serious" injuries. For instance, the knee injury so common in football due to blocking is more rare in rugby, where blocking or obstruction of any kind is not allowed.
www.usarugby.org/resources/medical/IsRugbySafeForYouth.pdf

In short, "Rugby is a contact sport, football is a COLLISION sport"

The medical team which sponsors our local high school leauge (www.smacrugby.com) also provides support for local football teams. They are currently conducting an injury comparison study based on actual high school rugby and football games in Tennessee.

Additionally, while there is no NCAA tournament currently, some colleges are beginning to accept rugby as a women's varsity sport to satisfy Title IX. In addition to rugby's safety relative to football, it is inexpensive to operate and manage due to the minimal equipment required to train and compete.

Anyway, thanks for mentioning rugby on your site at all!!! Some of my teammates and I participate in a yearly rotisserie league, and since discovering you from instanpundit I've turned a couple of them on to your site. Keep up the good work!

I remember first reading about rugby in the book Alive!, about a South American rugby team whose plane crashes in the Andres and has to resort to cannibalism to stay alive. I remember reading (and my memory may be bad here, I no longer have the book), that everyone on the team had a broken bone at some point. I also remember that if you weren't seriously hurt at some point, you weren't a real rugby player. Of course, it's quite possible that the South Americans play a tougher game.

As for women's college rugby, I have a humorous story. A couple of weeks after 9/11, by sister-in-law was getting remarried, and they were holding the ceremony at Wellesley College. I drove her son and his best friend over early to make sure everything was ready, and it turned out we had 1/2 an hour to kill. So the three of us, in dark suits and sunglasses walked over to the pitch to watch Wellesley take on Tufts. So, I'm a forty year old, standing there with two 14-year-olds, and a student from the team walks over to us and asks what we're doing there. I couldn't resist. "The President's coming." Her reply, "Which president?" Now if three guys in dark suits and sun glasses told you the president was coming, who would you think they were talking about? I immediately told her I was just kidding, and asked where the keg was located. Since the drinking age is 21, they had to keep it hidden.

We watched for a about 10 minutes, but no one scored. Wellesley got close a couple of times. It looked like a lot of fun. Again, I think it's perfect for Vince McMahon's next foray into televised sports.

The Mets 1-hitter streak is over. Leiter gives up four in the first, and Penny has given up three through 1 1/3. Mets down 3-1 in the second.

Livan Hernandez is off to a good start against Pittsburgh, striking out five through three innings. His only mistake has been a solo HR by Kenny Lofton. The Expos and Pirates are tied at 1.

Update: I should have waited an inning. Hernandez gave up 3 runs in the 4th and 2 more before being taken out in the fifith. Pirates have won game one 7-3.

I like the Sox matchup tonight. Esteban Loaiza goes against Tim Wakefield. Loaiza's 2.24 ERA leads the AL by three-quarters of a run. It's been a Pedro like season for Esteban so far.

I will once more encourage KC fans to get out to the ballpark and watch this team take on the Twins. Only 16,000 last night, which is an improvement, but last night's game had been scheduled since the start of the season! There's been a lot of offense in this series, and looking at the ERA's of tonight's starters, that should continue.

Al Leiter and Brad Penny face each other in Florida, and each hopes to continue the streak of 1-hitters involving the Mets. Last night's game was the first in Mets franchise history in which they faced the minimum 27 batters.

Atlanta at Philadelphia also continues tonight, with Kevin Millwood facing his old team for the first time. Russ Ortiz will try to prevent Millwood from picking up his ninth win. Although they have similar ERAs, Millwood's peripheral numbers are better.

In Colorado, Shawn Chacon goes for his 10th win vs. Kevin Jarvis of San Diego. Chacon's 4.39 ERA is the third best home ERA in the history of the Rockies. The most home wins by a Rockies pitcher is 10, and with a 6-1 home record, Chacon is well on his way to breaking that mark.

Finally, the Dodgers host the Giants, now trailing the San Franciscans by a mere one game. It's Rueter vs. Ishii in what should be a good pitching duel. There were 48,000 fans in LA last night. KC fans take note.

Casey Abell writes:

Ever since that link from Instapundit alerted me to your blog, I've really enjoyed your commentary on baseball, life and the cosmos. Okay, you usually don't get cosmic, but your blog has still become a must-read.

Your comments on baseball vs. football got me thinking about another way to look at the difference between the two games - which is to look at their closest relatives on the international stage. For (American) football, of course, the closest kin is its father, rugby. Indeed, the relationship is so close that it's the major reason American football hasn't spread to any other country except Canada. Rugby offers the same violent content as football packaged in a much faster format. All but a few minutes of a three-hour American football game consist of, well, a dead stop. While there are occasional pauses in rugby, the sport offers much more continuous action in its eighty minutes. And it also offers all the passing (though not forward), running, tackling and bone-crunching of the American game.

So it's not surprising that, with rugby well-entrenched throughout the world, the much more static game of Joe Montana and Walter Payton hasn't made many inroads abroad. Plus, rugby is a lot less predictable in the sense that you cited about American football. It often happens in rugby that the equivalent of a lumbering NFL lineman will score the equivalent of a touchdown. How often does, say, a right tackle score six in the American game?

Moving to the bat-and-ball department, baseball's main competitor has always been its distant cousin, cricket. The relationship between the two games isn't the same direct father-son lineage of rugby and American football. But there's no doubt that the sports are both descended from simpler English bat-and-ball games of the misty past.

Except while American football has slowed rugby to a crawl, baseball has speeded up the throw-the-ball-hit-the-ball proceedings considerably. So the American game has spread to many other countries despite continuing competition from cricket.

But give the cricket authorities their due. When their game seemed on the verge of extinction because fewer and fewer fans were willing to sit through a five-day test match, they came up with the one-day version of the game. That "short version" still takes seven or eight hours, but it's looks downright giddy compared to test cricket. The cricket poo-bahs have even been able to stage eight successful World Cups using the one-day game. (Don't look now, but they're talking about playing a couple of the 2007 World Cup matches in...Florida!)

Things have gotten even more interesting. The International Cricket Council's most cherished dream has always been to break into the American market. Test cricket is hopeless for short-attention-span Yanks, and even the one-day game takes too long. So they're now testing a twenty-overs-per-side game in England. Wouldn't you know, this version completes its business in about two and three-quarter hours. Wonder where they came up with that time frame?

So far the experiment has been a tremendous success, with enthusiastic crowds and good television/radio ratings. I've listened to a couple of the "Twenty20" games on BBC Internet, and there's no question that this format makes the Olde Game seem positively spiffy. Three hundred runs or so packed into a few hours means lots of running around and plenty to cheer about.

To make a long story short - too late, I know - baseball may not be the fastest game, but at least its main international competitor seems interested in becoming more baseball-like in its pace. American football's major competitor on the world stage, however, does everything it can to avoid the glacial slog of the NFL. It's an interesting way to look at the timing issues in each of the sports.

Two of the professors who run our lab are from cricket playing countries, and love the game. They watch scores on the internet, and love to argue with each other over the superiority of Australia or India. R. Manmatha, who is from India, has attempted to explain the game to me (and I baseball to him). I really need to sit down, read the rules and watch some games to see how I like it. But a 3-hour cricket match sounds fascinating.

As for Rugby, we had a college team, but at the club level, so the University wasn't responsible for it. I guess it's too violent for colleges to accept the liability of being responsible for every player being seriously injured. And Rugby with pads just woudn't be the same. Seems to be the XFL should have been about Rugby. The sport appears to be right up Vince McMahon's alley.

Here's a link to the Laws of Cricket. I wonder if they have cricket police to enforce them? :-)

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1024	1025
Attendance	26081	27203

Brown is not only pitching a shutout, he's combined with battery mate Paul Lo Duca to drive in both runs for the Dodgers. Lo Duca is half way to the cycle with a double and a HR, while Brown drove in Daryle Ward with a single.

Update: Lo Duca has the single. He's three for three. He only has 2 triples in his career, one this year and one last year.

Update: Lo Duca's four for four, but got another single.

Ichiro has two HR tonight to give him seven on the year. He hit eight in each of his first two seasons. With his 2 for 2 so far tonight, he's raised his average to .343.

Eric McErlain and Peter White are having a discussion of how John Olerud's move to Seattle hurt the Mets. Start with Eric's first post, then check out Peter's response and finish with Eric's rebuttal.

Ben Jacobs has a good player-by-player comparison of the Twins and Royals at the Universal Baseball Blog.

I just got back from the Bridgeport Bluefish game. It was a lot of fun, and I recommend a visit to Harbor Yard if you have a chance. The Bluefish beat the Newark Bears 4-2 on the strength of a grand slam byOreste Marrero. Rickey looks good. We were pretty close to the on-deck circle, and Rickey was acknowledging fans who were cheering him. He had 2 hits, a walk, reached on an error, an SB and a CS and scored a run. After the run, the fans near the Neward dugout gave him a nice ovation. Rickey has changed his stance a bit, standing back on one leg as he waits for the pitch to be delivered. His crouch does not seem to be as exaggerated as it used to be. The batting eye is still there. My guess is that he could help some team, and I would not be surprised if he ends up on an MLB team soon.

I'm off to Bridgeport to see the Bluefish host the Newark Bears. Of course, I'm really going to see all-time major league great Rickey Henderson kill independent league pitching. Rickey is hitting .352 with with a .481 OBA in 33 games. He's scored 25 runs and has 5 HR. This should be fun.

Brian Hipp, a Royals fan, writes:

As one of the 13k+ at the Royals-Twins game last night, I'll tell you where the buzz is.

Everyone out here is a Chiefs fan. In general, the Royals are regarded with pity, disdain, but mostly indifference. No one takes the Royals seriously. And for good reason. Even now, as we are finally playing well and challenging the Twins for first place, management is openly shopping our best player, Beltran, who is not even a free agent until after next season. Keep that in mind about the ownership of this club. No team starts unloading their best players two years before free agency, but the Royals do! And given Allard Baird's track record (Johnny Damon for Blake Stein, Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez), fans don't have a lot of faith in his ability to get anything of value for Beltran. Just don't trade with the A's!

Also consider that Mike Sweeney can walk after next season if we don't reach .500, that mythical plane of baseball nirvana we haven't attained since 1994. People recognize that if we lost 100 last year with Sweeney and Beltran, we might become the Tigers without them. Most reasonable people think that trading Beltran for prospects will greatly diminish the chance of locking Sweeney in. But then again, maybe that's David Glass's point in trading Beltran.

We haven't sniffed the playoffs since 1985 when we won it all, and we just lost 100 last year. I wish we'd get more fans out there at the K, but no one takes the team seriously. And it's hard to. We look across the state at hated St. Louis, see a real baseball franchise, and it makes us jealous. We look at the Chiefs, a team that despite its recent problems was very successful throughout the 90s, signs free agents, and signs its own players. The Royals haven't done any of those things. It's just hard to get too fired up when you only trust the team to do wrong thing.

The Royals are kind of like your kid's tee-ball team. It's fun go watch a game every once in a while because it's cheap, baseball is fun to watch, and there are a few exciting players. But most parents don't take it too seriously because pretty soon the season will be over, the players will soon be on different teams, and there's no chance of winning anything meaningful at the end of the season.

Here's a link to the KC Star article by Jeffrey Flanagan about trading Beltran. If they pulled a deal this year, it would be a team and public relations disaster.

I'm just looking at the Tampa Bay boxscore, and Ben Grieve is batting fifth with a .405 OBA. Ben's power isn't there, so why doesn't Piniella lead off with Grieve? In the past, he hasn't stolen much, but he's been very successful when he has (8 out of 10 last year, 24 out of 29 for his career). You need someone on in front of Baldelli, and Crawford isn't getting it done.

My good friend Jim Storer pointed out to me that last night, Brooks Kieschnick, a Brewer's pitcher, pinch hit and got two AB last night. (Aside: he batted twice in the inning, so the 2nd AB was without a position.) Peter Gammons wrote about Kieschnick in February. He's batting .375 as a hitter, 9 for 24 with 2 HR. He's gotten 8 AB as a pitcher, 8 as a DH and 7 as a pinch hitter. He hasn't pitched that badly despite a 4.91 ERA. He's only walked 3 in 18 1/3 innings. He essentially gives the Brewers a 26-man roster.

Minnesota at KC. Read the previous posts.

The Braves travel to Philadelphia as Shane Reynolds takes on Brett Myers. Reynolds has a 5-1 record with a 5.14 ERA while Myers has a 5-6 record with a 3.54 ERA. Tells you something about the strength of their supporting offenses. If Philly is going to make a run at the division, this series is a good place to start.

The other big game tonight pits the first place Giants against the 2nd place Dodgers in LA. Kevin Brown appears to be fully recovered from last year's injuries, as he's posting a 9-1 record and a 2.00 ERA. Brown appears to handle Bonds by not giving him anything good to hit. Bonds is 10 for 39 vs. Brown, a .256 BA, but with 15 walks.

James Joyner at Outside the Beltway comments on my previous post. He thinks the game is boring:

Major League Baseball is essentially the same game as it was in 1848. The only major change of which I'm aware is that balls that bounce off the outfield grass into the stands aren't home runs anymore; otherwise the changes have been tiny--some minor variation in the height of the pitching mound and the composition of the strike zone. The game was ideal for the age of radio but is now very slow. And the refusal of MLB officials to speed it up in obvious ways (enforcing the rulebook strike zone, limiting the ability of batters to step out of the box during their at-bats, limiting visits to the mound, etc.) has made the average game nearly three hours. That's not so bad for an event sport like football, but it's insane for a sport with a 162-game regular season. The bottom line is that baseball is a pastime and football is a sport. Most people have very little need for pastimes right now; they are quite busy.

First of all, baseball has actually made an inroad into game times this year. The average time of a 9-inning MLB game this year is 2:46, while last year through the same point in the season, the average time was 2:52. And they are doing by enforcing the strike zone and stopping batters from stepping out.

I also have to disagree with the last line; I think the busier people are, the more they need pastimes. He's right about the action in football and basketball being enticing. On the other hand, I find the unpredictability of baseball much more interesting. How often does the 12th man on the bench in basketball make the game winning shot? Never. Not 1 in 100, not 1 in 1000. Never. Yet Luis Sojo is a World Series hero. How many action sports would give David Eckstein a chance to be a star? Where else can the suspense build for minutes while a hitter fouls off pitch after pitch?

In football, if a team is down 16 points with a quarter to go, they are going to pass. The other team is going to run. Joe Montana is going to throw to Jerry Rice. Lawrence Taylor is going to make a great tackle. The third string safety isn't going to make the big interception. The fourth string running back isn't going to break one for 50 yards. But the equivalent happens in baseball every day.

It's an interesting game. Yes, it takes time to watch and listen and appreciate. But people like both Spiderman and Amilee; they can like both football and baseball.

One place where James and I are in total agreement is that idiots run MLB. They have to start pointing out the differences between MLB and the action sports, and how those differences are a positive, not a negative.

Correction: James does not think the game is boring, he thinks most people feel the game is boring. His response to my response is here.

Yesterday I asked, "Where's the buzz?" There was none, and only 13,442 people showed up for a game that had everything; a good performace by the home town starter; the start player driving in five; a hear-breaking collapse followed by last minute heroics to seal a victory. Everything you could possibly want in a baseball game. To the people of KC, this is the best team you've had in a while. Get out and support it, or you might not see better ones any time soon.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1010	1010
Attendance	26099	27188

Raul Ibanez singles home Beltran to give KC the win. That would have been a tough game for KC to lose. They pick up a game on the Twins, in a wild one. Mike Sweeney hit his 12th HR and drove in five for the Royals.

John Olerud just got his 2000th hit in style. He hit a 2-run HR to tie the game at 3. Congrats to John Olerud on reaching this milestone!

Down 8-2, the Twins mounted a six-run comeback vs. the Royals bullpen. Darrell May pitched into the 7th allowing two runs, but he's seen his win slip away. Royals are batting in the bottom of the ninth. Lew Ford, who came in as a pinch hitter is two for two with a HR and three RBI.

John Olerud is going for hit number 2000. He grounded out in his first AB.

If the Angels are trying to get back into the race, they are off to a good start. They scored three runs in the top of the 1st.

The Red Sox came into today 1/2 game behind the Yankees, but tied in the All Freaking Important Loss Column. All my life I've heard, "You can make up the wins, but you can't make up the losses." Well the Red Sox just lost, so it strikes me that the Yankees just made up a loss. Not so?

Pedro went five good innings, striking out six but giving up six hits. The offense let him down this time, as he left with the score tied at 1. Old Red Sox closer Tom Gordon pitched the ninth for his first save of the year, and his first since 2001.

Great game by the Cubs bullpen tonight. Clement pitched a strong six, striking out 9. Farnsworth, Alfonseca and Borowski then combined for three 1 hit innings with 4 K. They threw 46 pitches, 29 for strikes. The Cubs relievers had the 2nd lowest BA allowed (.213) in the majors, trailing only the Dodgers.

Tom Glavine, not Seo got the start against Dontrelle Willis, and Glavine has to wonder what Willis was bringing to the plate. Willis was nearly perfect, allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk, both to Ty Wigginton. Cliff Floyd contributed 3 of Willis' 8 strikeouts as he beat the Mets 1-0. The only run came on a four-bagger by I-Rod. The Florida battery provided all the juice tonight.

Michele offers her thoughts on the Clemens Hall of Fame hat. Also, be sure to read the excellent comments.

Update: James Joyner disagrees with Michele.

With the Twins and Royals beginning a four game battle tonight, I thought I'd go see what kind of buzz there was about the series in the local media. There is none. I checked the two local Twin Cities papers, no preview piece. I checked the Kansas City Star. No preview piece. I even checked Twins Geek and Aaron's Baseball Blog. They are much more concerned about Johan Santana's role on the club.

If this were the Yankees coming into Fenway for a four game series with the Sox four games back, there would be three pages in the globe devoted to the series. It would get space on the back pages of all the tabloids in both cities. The New York Times might even send a stringer to the event!

KC and Minnesota both need to attract fans. Creating a buzz about a series like this does so. The PR people for both teams have to work on their local media to get them to promote big games and big series. These four games should be sold out. Let's hope that a good game tonight generates the needed buzz.

All the Elephants in Oakland write:

I enjoy the fact you are posting the attendance numbers. But I did want to question that interleague was the de facto cause for the jump in numbers. As it so happens, each year interleague starts it is also the first week out of school and about the time that the weather is universally good from coast to coast and border to boarder.

Good weather, end of the NHL season, no school and also the fact that teams kick their promotional give aways into high gear at this time make it look like Kaiser Selig was a visionary for dreaming up interleague.

In fact, it's just a culmanation of factors.

That is certainly a legitimate criticism. However, we now have four days of intra-league games, and it will be interesting to compare this Monday-Thursday with last Monday-Thursday. Also, I notice that the next two weekends will be interleague series, which should also contribute to make interleague attendance look good.

The Bloviator has posted on the upcoming centennial of Lou Gehrig's birth, with links to stories about ceremonies this Thursday to mark the occasion and links to ways you can help in the fight to cure ALS.

Note: As I write this, the permalink doesn't work, so click on The Bloviator above and scroll to the Lou Gehrig post.

There really aren't any bad games today. Two big four-game series start in the AL. The Royals host the Twins, four games down in the standings. Lohse vs. May is the opening matchup. The Twins are 2-4 vs. KC so far. Since the start of May, the Royals are 16-25, while the Twins are 26-15.

The Angles, 10 1/2 games behind the league leading Mariners, open a four-game series in Seattle. John Lackey is coming off a strong outing and will face Joel Pineiro, who pitched well but lost in his last start. The Angels need a sweep here to get back in the race.

In the NL, the Cubs take on the Reds in the 2nd tightest division race in the majors. Sosa and Choi less, this is a great opportunity for the Reds to pick up ground on the Cubs. The Cubs have gone 2-3 so far during Sosa's suspension.

Finally, two good pitchers on two bad teams go at each other in Miami tonight. Jae Weong Seo faces Dontrelle Willis. Dontrelle has 43 K in 42 2/3 innings. Seo has only walked 17 in 81 1/3 innings. Rumor has it that Seo wants to know, "Whatchoo talkin' about, Willis?"

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	1003	1009
Attendance	26109	27189

Update: Interleague was a big boost this year. Average attendance in interleague games so far, 28012. In non-interleague games, 25737, an 8.8% increase.

Three Mets had big games today. Steve Trachsel let the Angels put the ball in play all day, and his defense backed him up for a one hit, four walk shutout. Jeromy Burnitz had two HR and 3 RBI, while Jose Reyes hit his first HR, a grand slam, and was 3 for 4 with five RBI. That give Reyes six RBI in six games; Rey "Wally Pip" Sanchez had 10 in his 38 games and 0 HR.

Jon Garland pitched a great game for the White Sox today, but lost 1-0. He allowed three hits and four walks in eight innings, but none of the walks contributed to runs. Chicago had plenty of chances to score, but were only 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position, and that hit failed to push a run across the plate. Coming into today, the White Sox are 28th in the majors with a .221 BA with runners in scoring position. (The Padres were 29th at .219.) So part of the problem with the Sox offense has been bad luck in scoring situations.

Nomar Garciaparra set a career high today with his 12th triple of the season. It's his 7th triple this June. STATS, Inc. has monthly splits back to 1974, and he's one shy of the most in June in that time frame. Rod Carew had 8 in June, 1977. Five others have had 6.

Roger Clemens wants to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee, and is threatening to boycott the induction ceremony if the Hall chooses another hat. You can blame it on Dan Duquette:

"I became a Hall of Famer here," Clemens added. "If I'd have listened to people there [in Boston], then I'd have been done. Not people. One person that evaluated my skills and he didn't take the time to get to know me."

Clemens left Boston as a free agent after the 1996 season when general manager Dan Duquette and the Red Sox figured that his best years were behind him. Clemens then signed with the Blue Jays and won the Cy Young in each of his two years in Toronto. He was then traded to the Yankees.

I think it's a little early for Clemens to be worrying about this. As certain as his election is (and I'm pretty sure it was certain when he left Boston), he still hasn't been elected. Also, the Hall of Fame appears not to need to answer to anyone, so my guess is Clemens will be welcome to come or not.

St. Louis at New York features a terrific pitching matchup between Woody Williams and Mike Mussina. Both have pitched a little over 90 innings, and both have walked only 16. Looks for balls in plays and a few strikeouts this afternoon.

For those on the West Coast, Montreal at Oakland offers Scrabble champ Javier Vazquez against Tim Hudson. And under the lights, Greg Maddux continues his quest for 300 wins vs. Gil Meche and Seattle. Maddux needs 22 wins for 300; a good rest of this season and a decent year in 2004 will take him there.

Enjoy!

Just wanted to wish all the dads reading today a Happy Fathers Day and hope you get to enjoy a ball game this afternoon. :-)

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	989	994
Attendance	26022	27029

Bad day for the Cardinals. Matt Morris was stiff starting today, and was hit hard before a deluge stopped the game for an hour. Brett Tomko replaced him, and has been hit harder. In the 2nd inning, the Yankees had 4 consecutive extra-base hits, including a HR by Giambi on a broken bat.

Matsui has a bases loaded double and an RBI single to give him four RBI in the first two innings. In his last nine games (including through two innings today) he has 18 hits, 6 doubles and 11 RBI.

Mark Prior has so far found a way to contain the Blue Jays offense. Through four innings, he's given up 5 hits, but he's struck out six. One of the hits was, however, and two-run HR by Delgado. We're not halfway through the season yet, and Delgado has 42 extra-base hits, 20 doubles and 22 HR. He could join Albert Belle as the only players to have 50 doubles and 50 HR in one season.

What happened to Shawn Green? He's getting hits, but his walks are way down, and so is his BA, OBA and Slugging Percentage. His strikeouts are up, too. Seems like either he's either swinging at pitches he shouldn't, or the strikezone has changed and pitches he used to take for balls are called for strikes. Would any Dodger fans care to send me their thoughts?

The Mariners came into the day batting .314 with runners in scoring position, 2nd highest in the majors. They are 0 for 6 against the Braves today, and the Braves lead 1-0 in the fourth.

The Dodgers have scored the fewest runs in the National League, 233. However, they have also allowed the fewest, 208. Now one of my rules of thumb has been that if you are great on one side of the ball, you have to be at least mediocre on the other side to win. And yet, the Dodgers are ten games over .500, being extreme on both offense and defense.

Is it luck? Not much. If you use the Pythagorean formula, you find the Dodgers should have won 36 instead of 38 games. And that's the clue. If you look at the Pythagorean formula for calculating winning percentage from runs scored and allowed:

f(x) = r²/(r² + (r+x)²)

Where r is the team's runs scored and x is the difference between runs scored and runs allowed.

The function is quadratic in x, meaning that a parabola describes the function. The shape of the parabola is controlled by r. The smaller r is, the narrower the parabola will be. What does that mean? It means that x has a bigger effect the smaller r is. So, if you are scoring three runs a game, just allowing a little less than three runs will give you a decent winning percentage. But if you are scoring five runs a game, then allowing a little less than five a game is still going to leave you around .500.

So let me modify my rule of thumb. If you are leading the league in scoring, you have to be decent in pitching to win. But if you are leading the league in fewest runs allowed, your offense only has to be a little bit better to win.

Correction: Jed Roberts points out to me that since the quadratic term is in the denominator, the curve will be bell shaped, but basic analysis still holds.

Tough one to pick today, but I'll go with Atlanta at Seattle. Mike Hampton takes on Jamie Moyer in the battle of lefties against two teams that play well against lefties.

Team Record when Opposition Starts a LHP
Team	Record	WPct.
Braves	13-2	.867
Mariners	20-5	.800
Dodgers	10-3	.769
Giants	9-5	.643

Something has to give.

Update: Just notice the Mariners are 17-0 in day games this year. The Braves also have the 2nd best record, 16-3 in the light.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	974	979
Attendance	25915	26865

Cairo grounds to first to end the game and give Roger his 300th victory. I love when these things happen, because you always hear people talking about how no one will win 300. It's just too hard. I guess not.

Clemens is on the field giving all his teammates hugs. And his sons just joined him. Nice to do it at home, and they are bagging some mound dirt for him to keep. Yankees played well behind him tonight, defense and bullpen. And it was great he got it with a 10 K game, as he's one of the great power pitchers of all time.

Congratulations, Roger!

Robinson taps back to the mound for the second out.

Rivera strikes out pinch hitter Palmeiro to start the ninth.

Mariano Rivera is in to try to save Clemens' 300th victory. The Yankees picked up 2 in the 7th to give Roger a three run cushion.

Both pitchers game out after six. Webb K'd 8 to Santana's 7, but Johan only gave up two hits and 1 run. He's in line for the win now.

Clemens reached 120 pitches with 2 out in the 7th. Torre came out to take Clemens out of the game, and the fans booed him. I don't blame him. Clemens was certainly capable of getting one more out in the inning. And he brings in Hammond, the lefty, to face Drew who gets a bunt single, then he leaves him in against Pujols who is hitting .410 vs. lefties, and he gets a single. The fans are booing more.

Update: Edmonds grounds out to end the inning. Can the bullpen get six more outs?

The Reds scored eight runs off Kevin Millwood in 3 1/3 innings tonight, raising his ERA from 3.05 to 3.72. Ouch. Ut;s 12-0 Reds in the 6th, and Boone has already brought in most of his reserves.

At the other end, Jimmy Haynes is throwing a 1 hitter. Coming into today, he had an 8.91 ERA. It's down to 7.59 so far. If you saw a 3.05 pitcher taking on a 8.91 ERA pitcher, which way would you think the 12-0 score would go?

Jeff Bagwell got a double in his first AB at Fenway Park. The Astros did not score, however.

The Cardinals are losing after the top of the fifth, so it's an official game. Clemens has struck out 10, but he's also thrown 102 pitches. It looks like he'll have to turn it over to the bullpen early, and with a one run lead, his chance of getting a win is tenuous.

John McDonald got Cleveland a run with a great slide on a steal attempt of third. The throw beat him, but he slid arms first, pulled his left arm away from the tag, and reached over and touched the base before Beltre could get the glove on him. (It was a double steal). Spencer then singled him in, but Bradley was thrown out at the plate. Indians lead 3-2 in the 7th.

There is a power failure in Tampa Bay, delaying the game in the middle of the 4th. Neither Kip Wells nor Victor Zambrano have allowed a hit, although Zambarno has walked four. Wells is perfect through three.

Adam Dunn hit his 21st HR of the season tonight. He's now batting .202 with a .329 OBA and a .524 slugging percentage. My question is, why is he leading off? His strength this year is clearly power. And power is best lower in the lineup. Is Boone trying a strange one-run strategy, where he tries to get a HR to leadoff the game? If not, what is he thinking?

You have to bet Dusty Baker is galled at the way the Cubs-Blue Jays game is going. The Cubs have seven singles in 18 AB, but have not scored. Kerry Wood has given up only three hits, but two runs, including a solo shot by Reed Johnson. The Cubs are one for six with runners in scoring position.

This almost made game of the day, but with other things going on it didn't seem appropriate. However, it's been a pitching duel so far. It's 1-1 in the fourth.

Coco Crisp was called up by the Indians on the 10th, and he's leading off tonight. He has a single, a stolen base and a run scored. It's the only run of the game so far.

Roger Clemens seems to be taking my advice so far. He's gotten the first five outs on K's (he did give up two hits, including a solo HR). His strikeout of Renteria is his 4000th... if the game isn't called for rain. The weather is bad there, and if the game is called before it's official, all the stats get wiped out. It's 1-1 in the top of the 2nd.

Update: Clemens has six strikeouts through two innings.

Robert Saunders writes about Moneyball:

The last chapter of the book got me thinking about the problem the A's face (and any team faces) in a short series: luck. If their success is assured in the long-run but not the short-run, I wonder if the A's then represent this decade's version of the 90s Braves, only emphasizing offense more than pitching.

And, if that's the case, I wonder if for post-season series whether some deviation from long-run strategy is not only sensible but mandatory. Just as fast-breaking offenses in other sports slow down the games in basketball or as Dallas this year even changed defenses as an adaptation, I wonder if there aren't circumstances where it makes sense to deviate from the "no small ball" rules.

For example, while the typical steal after a game opening hit or walk might have a negative impact on runs, I wonder if there are not circumstances when given who's pitching/catching, who's on base, who's at the plate, etc. might not auger for a steal. Or even sometimes a sacrifice bunt. Just because on average a strategy is poor, doesn't mean there aren't circumstances when it is advantageous and that you'd prefer to have the runs on the board as a hedge against luck.

For a long time I've felt tha the job of a manager is use players in a way that maximizes the players abilities. So if you have a pitcher who's good, but not great, try to get him more starts against the teams that don't hit well. If you have a batter with great power but poor on-base numbers, put him down in the order behind the OBA guys so he can drive in runs. If you have a pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners, but also gets a lot of ground balls, make sure you have the best middle infield defense you can behind him. And all of these decisions are based on who your opponent is, what stadium you are in, the health of others on the team, etc.

Now, during a season, I would think a team's management would come up with an overall strategy, which would be smart to include "minimize little ball." However, there are going to be days when you walk into a tough pitcher's park (Dodger Stadium) or you are facing a great pitcher (link Pedro) or both (Kevin Brown at Dodger Stadium). On those days, a manager needs to realize that the three-run HR is not going to be plentiful and should adjust his strategy to try to create more opportunities to score.

You don't throw the play book away automatically in the playoffs, but you sure should be willing to make adjustments to it. And it's a good idea to do something a little different, just to keep from being predictable. But unless the situation calls for little ball, I would not switch to it just for the sake of switching.

Houston at Boston leads off, as Jimy Williams returns and the Boston fans finally get to see Jeff Bagwell play at Fenway. Unfortunately, this isn't your older brother's Jeff Bagwell. He's hitting 20 points lower, his OBA is 50 points lower and his slugging percentage is 90 points lower than his career norms. Still, if he launches a couple into the Green Monster seats, all the Larry Andersen stories will be coming out.

Of course, down in NY, Clemens will be trying to win his 300th for the 4th time. The Cardinals are on hand for this one. How will the defense let him down this time? Will a ball roll under Jeter's legs? Will Soriano botch a DP? Will an outfielder throw to the wrong base? I think Clemens should think about striking out 27 so he leaves nothing to chance.

Arizona travels to Minnesota and sends Brandon Webb against Johan Santana. Could their lines be any more alike?

Finally, the two best teams in baseball meet out on the West Coast, as Atlanta visits Seattle. So many stories in this game; two terrific second basemen, two shortstops having career years, two top defensive centerfielders, the slash and burn of Ichiro vs. the power of Sheffield in right. Enjoy!

Slate has a very good interview with Bill James. (Link via Bambino's Curse).

For those of you new to this site, here's my interview with James from earlier this year.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	959	964
Attendance	25884	26760

Mike's Baseball Rants has a long bit of research on the strikezone, QuesTec and how we got to the current umpire/management war. Worth the read just for history of the rule changes.

Greybird didn't like Grady Little's moves in the ninth last night.

When me.. a woman who does not play baseball... knows that when a team walks the bases loaded to change pitchers to pitch to a guy STRUGGLING against lefties you really should pinch hit that player. Especially when sitting on your bench is a man who is stroking everyone.. lefties, righties.. it does not matter.

Dan Lewis has two posts on Steve Phillips. Start here, then scroll up.

J.D. Drew just answered Varitek's PH HR with a 2-run shot of his own. Cardinals up 5-3 in the 10th.

Damian Jackson pinch ran for Todd Walker, and tried to steal with one out in the ninth and Nomar and Ramirez coming up. He made it, but just barely. I can't believe the Red Sox would take that kind of risk.

Update: Nomar triples to tie the game. He's now at third with one out. The stolen base proves to have been useless.

Update: La Russa is walking the bases loaded, then he'll bring in a LHP to face Trot Nixon with one out and a man on third. I suspect the outfield will be in as well.

Update: Nixon pops out, then a fly out ends the inning. On to extra frames!

Jason Varitek, pinch hitting for Mirabelli, just hit his 10th HR of the year off Cal Eldred to break up the shutout and make the score 3-2. Not bad to have a catcher who hits .298 with a .554 slugging percentage.

Update: With 1 out, Todd Walker singles. Garciappara and Ramirez have a chance to tie (or win) the game.

Garrett Stephenson is shutting out the Red Sox in the 8th, despite walking six. He's gotten two double plays to help him, and the Red Sox are 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position.

The Mets are acting like they are happy Phillips is gone. They are up 8-0 on the Rangers in the third. Seven of the starters have a hit, and seven have a run scored. Vance Wilson has a HR and four RBI.

Colby Lewis, who entered the game with an 8.08 ERA has managed to raise it to 8.66 with six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings.

I missed Lew Ford being called up by the Twins recently. I saw Lew play at both New Britian, CT and Portland, OR last year and was impressed. He's leading off for the Twins tonight, and is 2 for 3 with a double and a run scored. And of course, he's another player that gives announcers the chance to comment, "They're not saying boo, they're saying Lew!"

Frank Thomas is 1 for 1 off Kirk Rueter tonight with a walk and a two-run HR. That make Frank 25 for 60 (.417) with 16 walks and six HR vs. lefties. He's only hitting .233 vs. righties, although he does have a .374 OBA. For his career, he's hit .341 vs. lefties, .304 vs. righties. Is it time to make Thomas a platoon DH?

The Tigers Jason Davis is shutting out the San Diego Padres through four. The Tigers have been on the wrong side of shutouts too much this year. They've been shutout 10 times, but only tossed one themselves. That's a deficit of 9. The next closest team is the Brewers, who have a deficit of 4. At the other end of the scale are the Seattle Mariners, who have been shutout twice, but thrown seven against their opponents.

Update Okay, I must really be tired, because Jason Davis plays for Cleveland, who are playing the Padres tonight. The notes about the Detroit and Seattle shutouts are correct however, they just don't belong here. SD did score, and now lead Cleveland 9-3 in the 6th.

Matt Kinney, in his third ML season has quietly become the best starter on the Brewers. He won today, and now has a 3.92 ERA and a .229 opposition batting average. This is the 2nd year in a row he's upped his innings pitched and lowered his ERA.

Shane Reynolds and Barry Zito are locked in a pitching duel, with the Braves leading 1-0 on a first inning Gary Sheffield HR. Reynolds, from his pitch counts, looks a bit wild, which should play into the Oakland A's hands, but they keep grounding out and hitting easily caught fly balls. Reynolds has no strikeouts, but has only given up 1 hit and 1 walk. What happened to Oakland's selectivity at the plate?

Scott Brodeur reviews the new cover of the New Yorker, which is all Shakespeare.

But the one that really kills me is Will walking a dog, wearing a Yankees cap. A Yankees cap! William Shakespeare. No way, man. You know Will would be a Red Sox fan. Maybe the Cubs or even the Mets. But definitely not the Yankees.

I have to disagree here. I assume Scott thinks the Red Sox or Cubs due to the tragic history of those clubs. But in Shakespeare's tragedies, some good comes out of the tragedy, whereas the Cubs and Red Sox have never learned from their mistakes. Why the Mets would be considered tragic, I don't know. They've actually been a pretty successful franchise. Shakespeare, I assume would see a lot of Lear in Steinbrenner, which is why he's probably wearing that cap.

A source of mine in the media confirms that there will be a news conference at 4 PM at which the Mets will announce they will fire Steve Phillips.

Update: Here's an ESPN.com story on the subject.

I've gotten a few replies to my inquiries on Moneyball and I'd like to share them with you.

From Daniel:

In the book, it's not so much that Beane takes credit as much as he devalues the individual's ability to control a game. Most notably, Beane points out that Eric Chavez' stardom is virtually a lock; what he has accomplished so far has charted his statistical course, and all he has to do is continue, and he'll become a Hall of Famer. Now imagine you're Eric Chavez and you read that? I think he's right, but by making it public he's kind of shot the goose: implicit in statistical analysis as a predictor for Chavez' future performance is an assumption that he CAN continue to perform as he has in the past. In essence, that the future will resemble the past. But I think Beane has blown it for himself by allowing this book to be published, as he has altered how the pasts of these players is perceived, and now the future of the A's is in some question.

I think Chavez will be a star, but Beane has to get off his high horse and just let his players play sometimes: let their natural ability take over. Because that's ultimately what will prove his statistical analysis correct: that Chavez' natural talent will make him a star, not his stats.

This from M. Lee Murrah:

I read Moneyball and thoroughly enjoyed it. I don't recall Beane's taking credit for the performance of the players. In fact his theory is based on finding hidden talents in players that others overlooks. His system assumes that the player has certain innate characteristics, such as an uncanny ability to get on base, and on the average will continue to perform at the same level. I would think that players, especially those such as the University of Alabama who was not rated among the nation's top 25 catchers and was nevertheless drafted in the first round, would love Billy Beane. His system takes a team composed of people who might not otherwise be in the major leagues and lets them play toe to toe with the superstars on the Yankees.

And finally, Peter Patton:

In regards to Moneyball, Beane and his #2 Paul De Podesta are portrayed as if they are the wizards behind the curtain and to an extent I think they feel that way - especially when they talk about Chavez. I am not knocking Beane or Bill James at all, because I agree with their thinking, but what I think they miss out on and Beane came off this way in the book, at least to me is that he doesn't take into account that ballplayers are still human beings - they do not act as mechanically as numbers do and humans can screw up a mathematical formula. That said, a lot of the criticism I have read about Moneyball comes from people who for the most part, have not read the book.

Thanks!

There's an extensive story in the Wall Street Journal today on the Yankees-Nets-Devil partnership and the problems they are having. Unfortunately, you have to have a subscription to read the on-line version.

Besides these problems, the Yankees and Nets owners have had a rocky time working together. They field a strong lineup: the always-powerful Yankees plus a basketball team that is in the NBA finals for the second year in a row and a hockey team that won the Stanley Cup this week. The value of YankeeNets' teams and its network stake is estimated at about $1.5 billion. But from the start, the team owners have been warring over several issues: whether to buy all of the Devils or just an interest, how to manage the teams, and even the formation of the sports network itself.

Salting this mix is the famously combative style of Mr. Steinbrenner. The parties now find their interests so divergent, and the personality clashes so severe, that the group is in danger of breaking up, according to interviews with four YankeeNets owners and numerous others who have worked closely with the teams and described the past four years' dealings.

George causing trouble? What a surprise.

Dan Branda writes:

Buzz in the city is that Mets GM Steve Phillips will be fired within the hour.

Stay tuned.

Steve Bonner writes:

I guess it's hard to look GOOD while being no-hit but what was most disturbing to me last night was how BAD the Yankees looked in being no-hit.

It's been well documented that the only time the Yankees got close to a hit was on Soriano's ball to Berkman. But that ball wasn't even well hit. It was a soft sinking liner. Nothing, and I mean nothing was hit hard, and the mind blowing 9 consecutive stikeouts is just unfathomable to me. With Mondesi, Soriano and Giambi in the lineup there should have been at least one or two balls that were hit hard. But these guys couldn't even make contact!

It became clear to me that while their defense is crappy, thier starters are sketchy and the bullpen is just horrendous, the Yankees also have big problems on offense. I think the lack of offensive discipline puts a lot of pressure on the pitching and defense. It was ironic and disgraceful to me that Weaver left to a thunderstorm of boos while his teammates were getting absolutely wiped off the face of the earth by 6 different pitchers.

Anyone who thinks the Yankees are capable of buying championships need look no further than the lineup last night to realize that it's not that easy. This lineup for all it's collective wealth, stinks. Jeter has built up enough goodwill with me over the years that I won't wholesale blast the guy yet and Matsui is still apparently adjusting to the league so I'll take it easy on him too; especially since he's been looking better at the plate of late (last night not included.) But would someone tell me why Juan Rivera has a job in a major league lineup? I have seen him play dozens of times and I honestly can't remember seeing him ever have a good at bat. Jorge is supposedly the best offensive catcher in the AL but he sure is streaky. There are many times I can remember, even when the Yanks were winning, when Jorge just looked atrociously over matched.

Mondesi is overly agressive, always has been and always will be. I suppose having one guy like him in your lineup isn't so bad but when you also have Soriano, Rivera and Posada doing the same thing your're bound to have problems.

Until last night, I was thinking that the Yanks would eventually right the ship and get to the playoffs. But I have seen the light. This is a home run hitting lineup that has a knack for slumping collectively. I don't think there is a quick fix for this teams OBA. I don't think Jeter is going to have a renaissance, I don't think Juan Rivera is going to learn to hit, I don't think Soriano is going to learn how to play second consistently,I don't think Posada is going to lose that clueless look he has 50% of the time. I optimistically predict that Matsui will continue to improve and that Giambi will have a pretty impressive second half but that's not going to be enough to carrya team that has almost comic deficiencies in every facet of the game.

Firing Rick Down isn't going to help, Joe Torre getting red in the face and showing off his repetoire of expletives isn't going to help. Ruben Sierra isn't going to help, Ugueth Urbina isn't going to help either. Fundamentally, the players on this team do not have a championship caliber skill set. And that my friends means that the run is officially over.

In my opinion, you should not give up on the Yankees. There are still a number of very good players on this team, and the collective slump could turn into a collective hot streak quickly. However, as I was just driving back from lunch listening to the game, Matsui made a bad play in CF where, with a man on third and less than two out, he caught a ball and threw to Jeter rather than to the plate, allowing a run to score. When Matsui, who is one of the most fundamentally good ballplayers I have seen, starts making mental mistakes, something is really wrong.

Two good pitching matchups today. The Giants send Kirk Rueter to the mound vs. the White Sox' Bartolo Colon. Both have similar ERA's, but the Giants have supported Rueter with 6.9 runs per 9 IP, while the White Sox have only given Colon 3.9 runs to work with. Hence a 7-1 record for the Giant, while the Sox hurler is at 6-5.

The other good matchup happens late in Seattle, where the Expos try to take three in a row from the Mariners. The Expos send rookie Claudio Vargas to the mound for his 9th start and 10th appearance. Vargas has a 3.38 ERA, but looking at his season totals, I don't see how. In 48 innings, he's walked 21 and given up 7 HR. He's K'd 30, not bad and not great. In looking more closely at his numbers, however, there are two very divergent splits:

1. Lefty-Righty: He's allowed a .329 BA to lefties, a .202 BA to righties.


2. None on/Men on: With no one on, teams are hitting .326 with a .396 OBA against him (in the none on/none out situation, it's even worse, .370 and .442!), but once he let's a man on, he's nearly unhittable, allowing a .182 BA and .275 OBA.

I suspect the situational split is luck.

David Brinkley passed away yesterday. The Huntley-Brinkley report was the first news show I watched regularly. I always enjoyed his delievery, and his wry sense of humor.

Good night, David.

The Oakland A's got off to a good start this year, going 22-13 through May 9th. The were scoring 4.9 runs per game and had an ERA of 3.28. On May 10th, Moneyball by Michael Lewis was released. Since then the A's have gone 13-15, scoring 4.2 runs per game with an ERA of 4.05.

I wonder if the book pissed off the players? I'm going to have to read it now, but if the book portrays Beane as the genius behind the A's winning, how does that make the players who have to perform everyday feel? I'd appreciate if someone who has read the book would tell me if Beane takes credit for the accomplishment of the players, or if he gives proper credit to the guys on the field? I can see players really getting upset and thinking, "Why should we play for this guy?" if they were not given their due.

Just so that you get both sides, here's the Houston Chronicle's story on the no-hitter.

Alex Belth over at Bronx Banter has links and quotes from articles on Torre's reaction to the game. His permalinks don't work, so you may have to scroll to the post titled, "Joe Blasts Bombers".

Alex, get yourself some decent blogging software. You have a great blog, and perma links should work the first time!

Update: Here's the permanent link.

Attendance, through same period	2003	2002
Games	946	963
Attendance	25934	26760

Joe Katzman at Winds of Change rather enjoyed the Astros no-hitter last night. Meanwhile, Rob Neyer points out that we shouldn't be suprised by the Yankees getting no-hit, since they have a relatively low batting average. That's how this team has changed. During the peak from 1996 to 2001, the Yankees were a high BA, high OBA, high HR team. The BA has dropped this year. It's been a theory of mine for a while that low BA, high OBA teams don't do well in the playoffs because other teams in the playoffs have usually have good pitching. And good pitching means few walks and few HR. So you reduce a high OBA team to a low batting average team, and they tank. The 1990 Oakland A's are a great example of this, but I suspect the Orioles of the late 60's early 70's were like this also. What made the Yankees teams of the late '90's so good was that the offense was so multi-faceted that it was hard to shut them down.

Part of the problem this year is injuries; Johnson and Williams are out for an extended period, Jeter was out for an extended period. Part of it is slumps, especially by Giambi. But the depth is not there to make up for these losses, although I suspect the Yankees will try to acquire that depth soon.

Update: Michele wants to know who gets the game ball?

Trammell strikes out. Matsui is up. He grounds out to Bagwell, who flips to Wagner.

It's the first time the Yankees have been no-hit since 1958. An amazing streak is over.

Trammell didn't come close in swinging at strike two.

Posada strikes out. He's the 7th K in a row.

Trammell is on deck to pinch hit for Ventura.

Billy Wagner's first pitch was 100 miles an hour.

Posada is coming up.