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March 16, 2009
Team Offense, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Chris Young The series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the DBacks 2008 numbers. The results:
The Diamondbacks scored 4.44 runs per game in 2008. I almost get the feeling Ralph Houk is managing this team. Ralph liked to lead off with his second baseman, no matter how high or low or player's OBA. Felipe Lopez only fits the role of a leadoff man in that he has no power. Melvin compounds the mistake with Chris Young batting second. He projects to post the lowest OBA on the team. Given this poor top of the order, I'm not surprised the probable lineup ranks halfway between the best and worst lineups the Diamondbacks might assemble. The saving grace of the team is their power. While they don't have an outstanding slugger, seven of the players project to good slugging percentages. What they lose in failing to get on base they make up somewhat in moving the batters who do get on around the bases. Plus, there's a good chance that Marcels underestimate some of these hitters due to their youth. Upton, Drew and Young are all on up slope of their careers. Unless Eric Byrnes returns, none of the starting eight will have a seasonal age of 30 in 2009. With everyone either in or approaching their prime, the offense just might catch lightning in a bottle, much like the Rockies did two years ago. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Diamondbacks opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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March 14, 2009
Team Offense, Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pirates have not reached .500 since Barry Bonds departed for free agency. The series on team offense continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Pirates 2008 numbers. The results:
The Pirates scored 4.54 runs per game in 2008. I find two things sad about this Pirates lineup. The first is that the spread between the best and worst lineups is small for an NL team, about 0.5 runs. The second is that even their best lineup is not predicted to score as much as the team did last year. Given the low prediction of runs per game, the lack of spread between the best and worst lineups shows that the team just doesn't possess much offensive talent. Pittsburgh has no power outside of the heart of the order, and none of their 3-4-5 hitters are projected to slug over .500. The top OBA on the team comes in at .346, which wouldn't make a good leadoff man on most teams. The team is going to make a lot of outs, and they can't fall back on power to make up for some of that. Unless the pitching is fantastic, the Pirates are headed for another losing season. Call it the curse of Barry Bonds. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Pirates opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 PM
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Team Offense, Colorado Rockies
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Brad Hawpe The series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Rockies 2008 numbers. The results:
The Rockies scored 4.61 runs per game in 2008. The Rockies project to be a team that does a great job of getting on base. Of the eight position players, only Clint Barmes to have an OBA below .350. If Atkins and Helton stay healthy, I wonder if the Rockies will play Ian Stewart more at second base? That would give them eight hitters all way above the NL average in OBA. I agree with the Lineup Analysis Tool that Hawpe and Ianetta should be batting higher. If Brad comes anywhere near that OBA, the Rockies are losing a lot of times on base batting him fifth. I'd simply move Brad to fourth and Chris to fifth and let Atkins clean them up with his power. Barmes or not at second base, the Rockies should put a ton of runners on. The smallest amount of luck with runners in scoring position is going to lead to a big scoring year for Colorado. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Rockies opening day tickets (hosting the world champion Phillies). Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM
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March 13, 2009
Team Offense, Milwaukee Brewers
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Ryan Braun bats with Prince Fielder on deck. The series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Brewers 2008 numbers. The results:
The Brewers scored 4.63 runs per game in 2008. There's a huge gap between the best and worst lineups the Brewers can put on the field. That usually signifies a large spread of talent in the batting order. For teams like this, it really does matter how the manager constructs his lineup. The only thing I might change here is switching Braun and Fielder, getting Prince's better OBA in front of Braun's power. However, the switch only results in 0.03 more runs per game, or about five runs over the season. That's half a win, and in a close division or wild card race it might make a difference. There really isn't much OBA from the fifth slot down. Pitchers should have it pretty easy once they get through he heart of the lineup. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Brewers opening day tickets (hosting the Cubs). Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM
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March 12, 2009
Team Offense, Atlanta Braves
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Chipper Jones The series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Braves 2008 numbers. The results:
The Braves scored 4.65 runs per game in 2008. I really don't like the way the middle of this lineup is put together. With McCann and Kotchman on the team, Cox projects to bat the fading Garret Anderson fourth. The Lineup Tool gets this right, batting both Anderson and Francoeur near the end of the offense. The probable lineup puts McCann in a very bad spot, with a poor hitter in front of him to limit RBI opportunities, and a poor hitter behind him to limit run scoring opportunities. To me, Jones, Kotchman, McCann gives the Braves a better heart of the order and raises the probability of getting three straight hits/on-base in the heart of the order. That would score more from the top and set up the bottom for RBI. I like the Marcel projection for Chipper. What would Braves fans rather have, a year where he threatens .400 but only plays 128 games or the Marcel projection and Chipper on the field for a full season? Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Braves opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM
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Team Offense, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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Bobby Abreu The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Angels scored 4.72 runs per game in 2008. If Mike Napoli hits like Marcel projects, he'll be hitting much higher in the lineup by the middle of the season. The Angels lineup starts great, building OBA and power through the first third of the order. With his decreasing power, I like Bobby Abreu in the two hole. The middle third is just an out machine. True, the batters there can do some damage with the long ball, but there's no reason to pitch around anyone there, since they'll probably chase outside pitches anyway. Once again, for the majority of this lineup, putting the ball in play hard will be the key to success. That will help them score enough runs to win with a good pitching staff. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Angels opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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March 11, 2009
Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays
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Dioner Navarro The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Rays scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008. I don't like Carl Crawford in the two hole, and neither does the Lineup Analysis Tool. However, given that this lineup is very close to the runs scored by the ideal lineup, I can't complain too much. This is a good offensive team, although I'd like to see players like Burrell bat higher so he gets more opportunities to get on base. One nice thing is that Upton, Longoria and Navarro are still in the growth phase of their careers. If I had to pick one player to exceed his Marcel projections, it would be Dioner Navarro. He's pulled down by his previous seasons where various personal problems and injuries pulled down his stats. I suspect he'll be closer to his 2008 numbers than his career norms. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Rays opening day tickets (versus the Yankees). Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM
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March 10, 2009
Team Offense, Florida Marlins
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Hanley Ramirez
The Marlins scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008. Fredi Gonzalez and the Lineup Analysis Tool's best order both have a stretch of the lineup that goes McPherson-Pitchers-Maybin-Baker-Ramirez. Fredi's starts in the 8th slot, but the program starts it one batter sooner. That puts the hitters with the best OBAs 1-2 in the order, and Hanley's power still gets to pickup Maybin when the lineup circles to the top. It's nearly a .25 run difference, or 40 runs over a full season. That might be enough to get me to try batting the pitcher 8th. I like this lineup, as everyone, except may McPherson either gets on base or hits for power. There's no truly bad hitter in this lineup. If their young pitchers stay healthy, this might turn out to be a very good team. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Marlins opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 PM
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Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals
Permalink 
Kahlil Greene The series on team offense continues with the ST. Louis Cardinals. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the team's 2008 numbers. The results:
The Cardinals scored 4.81 runs per game in 2008. This is pretty cool. The bottom four of La Russa's lineup match the bottom four of the best lineup calculated by the Lineup Analysis Tool. La Russa might do better batting Albert Pujols in the leadoff spot, but there's no way Albert would do that. Still, but splitting the batters correctly top five vs. bottom four, this lineup comes very close to the optimum. The wild card in the Cardinals order looks like Khalil Greene. His numbers are projected to be very low, but the move out of PETCO could really help his power. PECOTA has him at .311/.429. That would bring the probable lineup to 5.1 runs per game. An even better year from Greene takes some pressure off the Cardinals pitchers. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Cardinals opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:56 PM
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March 09, 2009
Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Orioles scored 4.86 runs per game in 2008. The Orioles may hold the record for actual lineup closest to the ideal lineup in terms of run production. If you look at the Lineup Analysis link above, the bottom lineup in the top 20 matches the Orioles lineup in five spots. One change that makes sense is moving Luke Scott ahead of Adam Jones. Jones, However, is still young, so I can believe he might exceed this projection, and that would certainly give the Orioles a boost. Like last season, this is a good offensive team. The bottom of the lineup isn't great, but they do have enough near the top put some runs on the board. They need to find pitching in order to compete. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Orioles opening day tickets (hosting the Yankees). Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM
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Team Offense, New York Yankees
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Yankees scored 4.87 runs per game in 2008. Brett Gardner is having a better spring than Melky Cabrera, but Melky projects slightly better for the regular season so substituting Gardner into the lineup makes little difference. We do want to see what happens with Cody Ransom, however, since A-Rod will miss the start of 2009. Ransom's projection is pretty good, .351 OBA, .450 slugging. Most teams would be happy to get that from a third baseman. The Yankees best lineup drops to 5.52 runs per game with Cody, and with him batting sixth it would be 5.44. So the Yankees would drop 0.2 runs per game with Ransom instead of Rodriguez, but they would still score a high number of runs per game. The real danger to the Yankees, however, is that Rodriguez is the start of the injuries, not the end. Damon, Jeter, Posada and Matsui are all older players projected to put up good stats. Injuries to any or all will put the Yankees closer to their 2008 level. Swisher gives them a little depth in the outfield, so they could probably handle one outfielder and one infielder out at the same time. So this is a high scoring team if they can stay healthy. With a likely improved pitching staff, anything above five runs per game should put them in an excellent position to make the playoffs. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Yankees opening day tickets (new stadium debut). Also, season ticket packages are available, as well as tickets to the exhibition opener of the new stadium. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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March 08, 2009
Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
The Phillies scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008, the same number as the Mets. These numbers all come in a little bit behind the Mets. I took a look at the lineup with Burrell in left instead of Ibanez, and the team scores about 0.11 runs per game more, or close to 18 more runs over the season. That's about two wins. Over the last four years FanGraphs, actually rates Burrell as a better left fielder than Ibanez. Given how close the division played the last two seasons, two wins is a lot for the Phillies to give up. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Phillies opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:41 PM
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March 06, 2009
Team Offense, New York Mets
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
The Mets scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008. Looking at this probable lineup I was surprised to see Delgado splitting Wright and Beltran. In general, putting two high OBA, high power hitters together is a good thing. Delgado is that hitter when he's at his best, but he's getting old and had his ups and downs the last couple of years. Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing Beltran and Reyes flip the 1-5 spots. Daniel Murphy projects to do well, and if he lives up to the .371 OBA the Mets should have a very good pair of table setters. My feeling is Marcel underestimates Reyes a bit, since he came up at a young age and posted a poor OBA for a while. The bottom of the lineup is very weak. That should give opposing pitchers a break, and it's the big reason the Mets project to score fewer runs than last season. They were even with the Phillies in runs scored in 2009 so the division title came down to pitching. With this lineup, the Mets will need to depend more heavily on fixing the pitching to win in 2009. Other teams in this series:
Correction: Fixed the value of the Mets regressed lineup. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Mets opening day tickets (Citi Field debut). Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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March 05, 2009
Team Offense, Cleveland Indians
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Indians. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Indians scored 4.97 runs per game in 2008. The Indians are another team strong from top to bottom. There's very little difference between the best and worst lineups Eric Wedge can put on the field. If Hafner, Choo and Cabrera live up to their projections, the Indians will wind up with a very strong offense in 2009. I suspect we'll see a big bounce back from Cleveland this year. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Indians opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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Team Offense, Chicago White Sox
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The White Sox scored 4.98 runs per game in 2008. Most managers devise a lineup that may not be mathematically optimal, but is close and makes sense in the traditions of baseball. The lineup analysis tool tends to put high OBA power hitters at the top of the order with a leadoff type hitter batting ninth. Here, however, Guillen's 1-2 hitters get lowered to 8-9 using the tool, suggesting Ozzie has his top and bottom a bit backward. You'll also notice that Pierzynski bats second in most of the worst lineups. Owens bats ninth, which is not a knock against him (second leadoff man), and Ownes-Getz at the top of the order gives the power in the middle more to drive in. If and when Getz proves himself able to get on base, I suspect there will be a flip in the lineup. The power in the middle is impressive. Quentin and Thome serve the dual role of driving in the few runners they'll see in front of them and setting the table for the power behind. Dye and Konerko should each drive in 100 runs even if they don't hit that well, since Q&T should provide them numerous opportunities. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy White Sox opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM
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March 04, 2009
Team Offense, Detroit Tigers
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Tigers scored 5.07 runs per game in 2008. Last season, the Tigers posted a lineup that looked like it could score close to six runs per game. They actually ended up ranked fifth in the majors in runs per game, but they didn't exactly blast people out of the park. This season, they still put up an impressive 1-6, but they've traded more power at the bottom of the order for more defense behind their pitchers. If that defense can bring down the Tigers runs allowed by 1/2 a run they should at least post a winning record. This is a lineup, however, easily decimated by injuries. Ordonez, Sheffield and Guillen are all up in age, and Ordonez and Guillen are important cogs in this offense. I also wonder if Granderson comes near his projected numbers if he won't start batting lower in the order. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Tigers opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM
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Team Offense, Minnesota Twins
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Twins scored 5.09 runs per game in 2008. The probable lineup is very close to the optimum. The first four batters are only shifted by moving Mauer and hits great OBA into the leadoff spot. The Twins manage to concentrate a good deal of offense into their first five slots. Crede, with his power, is good at finishing a rally, making the seven slot perfect for him. I'm very excited to see Dernard Span. It's tough to find a great leadoff hitter anymore. Teams seem very content with putting someone with a .350 to .360 OBA in the slot. Span projects to .380, and might do better. Should the Twins develop a fan club that sits in the outfield with Viking helmets singing, "Span, Span Span, Span, Span, Span, Span, Span!" whenever Denard takes his position or comes to bat? This is a good Twins offense. If runs scoring continues to be down this year, they'll once again do well in the rankings. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Twins opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM
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March 03, 2009
Team Offense, Boston Red Sox
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Red Sox scored 5.22 runs per game in 2008. One marvels at the ability of the Red Sox front office to assemble such a group of selective hitters who also hit for power. The only weak spot in the lineup is Varitek, and if he posts a .325 OBA I bet the front office will be extremely happy. As you can see by the very small difference between the best and worst lineups, it's tough for Terry Francona to go wrong making out the card. I'd love to see Terry try lineup number three some time, starting Drew, Ortiz, Youkilis and Bay 1-4. There are two main worries with this lineup. The first is age and injury. There's a reason the Red Sox wanted Mark Teixeira, they're not sure how Mike Lowell will hold up. J.D. Drew's back is already acting up, and David Ortiz is coming off a wrist injury. The other concern would be with their youngsters, Ellsbury and Lowrie. Jed is still an unknown at the major league level. Ellsbury's offense fell off quite a bit from June through August last year, although he appeared to get his groove back in September. With only 670 at bats under his belt, we're still not sure where Ellsbury will wind up. Even with those concerns, the Red Sox are still a deep team, and even with an injury or two I expect them to be near the league lead in runs scored. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Red Sox opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM
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Team Offense, Chicago Cubs
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I use the team's averages from 2008. The results:
The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008. The Cubs probable lineup is upside down. The five through eight hitters own better OBAs than the one through four hitters. While the Lineup Tool puts Bradley and Lee at the top of the order, if I were making out a more traditional lineup I'd put Theriot and Fontenot one and two, with Soriano's power bring up the rear of the middle of the order. Might it be possible that the Cubs score more runs in the second inning than the first this year? Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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March 02, 2009
Team Offense, Texas Rangers
Permalink I delayed my team offense reports this season as I waited for the free agent market to shake out. With Orlando Cabrera signing today, we're a little closer to completion, and the start of the regular season is only a month away. I'll cover the teams based on their 2008 finish in runs scored, starting with the Texas Rangers. I use the probable lineup published at CBSSportsline, and plug OBA and slugging percentage from the Marcel the Monkey projections into the Lineup Analysis Tool. In addition to posting runs per game for the best, probable and worst lineups, I'll also post the regressed value of the probable lineup. In general, teams do not keep the probable lineup on the field the whole season, and this formula should help adjust for that. Here are the results (Elvis Andrus's projection is from Baseball Prospectus.):
There's really not much for Ron Washington to do with this lineup. Texas projects to play eight hitters with good but not outstanding OBAs. It's a team that might lead the league in OBA, not because anyone is outstanding, but only Andrus is below average. Still, that's a big falloff from 2008. The projections show a huge drop in OBA from the fourth slot and in the ninth slot. Andrus's glove better be as good as the Rangers hope, since he'll need to save a ton of runs to make up for his lack of batting prowess. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM
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Royals Hope
Permalink Sam Mellinger likes the Royals now that they've signed Juan Cruz: Greinke is just one reason Royals fans feel like they can dream a little. The division is weak. Cleveland lost CC Sabathia and his dots. Detroit looks lost. The White Sox are a year older. This is the spot where I'm supposed to say something bad about the Twins, so let's just move on. Pitching can take a team a long way. We'll see if the depth is really there once the season starts. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM
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February 23, 2009
The Veteran factor
Permalink Baseball Crank takes a look at the Yankees history in the free agent era signing or trading for established veteran pitchers. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM
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February 13, 2009
Gloating
Permalink A Giants fan enjoys the finanical problems the Dodgers suffered moving to Arizona. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM
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February 10, 2009
Rand on Runs
Permalink Michael Rand examines the Baseball Prospectus data and decides the Twins need more offense. There are plenty of good bats available. Now would be a good time for the Pohlads to stimulate the team with an infusion of cash. You're not going to get a better bargain on players like Abreu, Dunn and Ramirez. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:28 PM
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February 09, 2009
Indians Left Field
Permalink This article at MLB.com talks about the Indians contingency plans if Ben Francisco doesn't work out. There's no real reason to think he will. His minor league numbers are okay, but not great, and he's coming to the majors old. The Indians own the second longest championship drought in the majors. Given this year's free agent market, why not do the obvious and hire Manny Ramirez short term? Offer him two years, $50 million and see what happens. That's one town where the fans shouldn't be waiting for another rebuild. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 AM
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Championship Core
Permalink Phil Sheridan writes on the meaning of the Ryan Howard signing: With this deal, the Phillies now have the core of their World Series-winning team locked up long enough to make a run at another championship or two. Howard and Cole Hamels agreed to deals this winter. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins aren't going anywhere. The trick now is to surround that core with good role players. We'll see over the next few years if Amaro can do better than Raul Ibanez. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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February 05, 2009
Middle Move
Permalink Driveline Mechanics looks at how moving Derek Jeter to centerfield and signing Orlando Cabrera to play shortstop would increase the Yankees wins in the 2009 season. Of course, such a move is extremely unlikely to happen. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM
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Complement or Insult?
Permalink Russell Martin likes the Dodgers playoff chances with or without Manny Ramirez: "Whether we have him or not, I think our team has got a good core and he just complements the rest of the guys," Martin said Wednesday during a team visit to Children's Hospital Los Angeles. Manny, however, is a much bigger complement than Juan Pierre. I'd say playing Juan is more like adding insult to injury. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM
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January 31, 2009
Scoring and Preventing
Permalink River Ave. Blues posts an interesting graph showing the ups and downs of the Yankees offense and pitching in 2008. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 PM
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January 26, 2009
What's the Difference?
Permalink Why I love Rob Neyer. On Joe Torre's reign with the Yankees: Beginning in 1996, the Yankees won four World Series in five years. In those five years, they averaged 97 wins. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM
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January 20, 2009
Cost Analysis
Permalink Sky Kalkman improves on evaluating the cost of a marginal win by comparing expected number of wins based on payroll with the actual number of wins earned. In other words, if you spend more, you're expected to win more. The Angels score very well in this analysis, although the Rays remain head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:13 PM
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January 13, 2009
Milwaukee Pitching
Permalink Bernie's Crew analyzes the Brewers starting pitching as it stands now. He comes away hopeful. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM
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January 07, 2009
Strong at the Wrong Position
Permalink Bill Center starts a series on the Padres by position at first base. The title says it all, "At one position, at least - first base - the Padres organization is flush." Let's face it, that's not a position where a team wants to be deep in their organization. The Diamondbacks were busy making themselves deep at shortstop, and were able to turn one of those into an outfielder. If you have a log jam at shortstop, you can move the player to another position, or trade for some value. If a player is stuck behind a good first baseman, there isn't much room to maneuver. Sure, the Padres can trade one of them away, but it looks like there's not much of a market for first basemen right now. This is a surprising organizational mistake by a group of pretty smart baseball people. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM
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December 29, 2008
More Defense
Permalink Another Red Sox fan defends the Yankees. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM
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December 28, 2008
Losing to Win
Permalink Squawking Baseball looks at the how the Pirates are usings losing to win in the future. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:17 PM
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You Can Buy Championships
Permalink Alex Belth dispels the idea that you can't buy championships: But facts are facts: since the start of free agency in 1977, no team has spent more money on players than the Yankees have; no team has won more pennants or more championships. So while no team can ever fool themselves that they can pre-arrange success (as George Steinbrenner was accused of believing in the Eighties), the Yankees aggressiveness in the free agency market hasn't always back fired either. I would also argue that the 1977 Yankees Championship was bought with Reggie Jackson. The 1997 Marlins certainly bought a champion (compare to the Indians who developed the team and signed players to long term contracts). The 2001 Diamondbacks wasn't exactly home grown. I'm sure my readers can think of others. There are many ways of building a champion, and buying a team works just as well as anything else. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 AM
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December 27, 2008
Defending Spending
Permalink Red Sox fan Daniel Drezner defends the Yankees spending: First, it would be awesome if American corporations acted more like the Yankees. One cause of the deepening recession is that firms are afraid to do anything other than hold cash in hand at the moment. The smart ones should invest in expansion -- capital is ridiculously cheap right now and they'll be well-poised once the economy takes off again. If enough firms acted that way, the economy actually would take off again. The Yankees are like Mr. Potter from It's a Wonderful Life. He was buying up bank shares cheap during the depression, but he was also supplying liquidity. The Yankees are doing the same, as their luxury tax and revenue sharing bills help keep other teams competitive. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM
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December 23, 2008
Fun in the Sun
Permalink R.J. Anderson notes that the Padres should be fun to watch in 2009: Imagine you were just crowned General Manager of a replacement level team that won 50 games last season. There's very little you could do that would be worse, and the team is so cheap that getting rid of the broken parts isn't too worrisome on a cash-strapped owner's checkbook. The Pads aren't quite that bad off, but that doesn't mean they can't take some chances that in previous years were off limits. In short, the Padres are a sabermetrician's dream laboratory! Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 AM
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December 18, 2008
Marginal Marlins
Permalink Beyond the Boxscore provides a table of the cost of a marginal win for each team. The post makes a very good case that if the Marlins increase their pay roll by $30 million, they likely make the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM
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December 17, 2008
Quote of the Day
Permalink Craig Calcaterra talks about the age of the Yankees potential starting lineup: That's not a baseball team. That's the cast of "The Big Chill," with Cano playing the Meg Tilly character. I always preferred Jennifer Tilly myself. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM
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December 14, 2008
Younger and Cheaper
Permalink Buster Olney writes that despite the spending spree, the Yankees are going to be younger and cheaper than in 2008. On top of that, none of these moves cost them any prospects from their system. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM
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December 12, 2008
San Diego Summary
Permalink Geoff Young sums up the current situation of the San Diego Padres. First, some praise for Kevin Towers: Jake Peavy isn't going to the Cubs... for now. And just when I was starting to like the names being mentioned. Did you notice how the rumored packages went from being awful, to decent, to pretty good? At the very least, Kevin Towers deserves credit for not jumping on any old deal, like some folks seemed to assume he would. Then he addresses all the problems caused by the lack of a trade. Down in the article, however, he makes a big mistake: Meanwhile, the ownership situation continues to be murkier than Mission Bay after a heavy rain. I keep telling myself that I should be upset by all of this, but instead I just find it fascinating. Like, how much worse can the situation get? And the answer is none. None more worse. He needs to re-read King Lear, especially given the heavy rain reference. All through Lear, just when you think the situation can't get any worse, it does. The Padres are in real trouble now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM
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December 05, 2008
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
Permalink Peter Abraham discusses why the Yankees should concentrate on pitching. It's based on presentations by students of Vince Gennaro, a wise business analyst. I don't necessarily buy it. Teams that are extreme at one end of the offense/defense scale only need to be okay at the other to make the playoffs. The years the Red Sox won in the late 1980s early 1990s, they posted the best offense in the AL with a team ERA in the middle of the league. Is it really that difficult to trot out a rotation with a 4.50 ERA? If a team scores 6 runs per game and allows 4.7 runs per game, that should work out to around 100 wins. If New York signs Mark and Manny, brings Pettitte back, and gets Hughes and Kennedy to post ERAs under 5.00, I think it's a pretty good team. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:37 PM
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November 07, 2008
Yankees Tidbits
Permalink Peter Abraham reports from Joe Torre's charity event: Joe Girardi revealed for the first time that Mike Mussina told him after the season that he planned to retire. He has not heard from Moose since. There's also news on Andy Pettitte's plans and the rehabbing shoulders of Rivera and Posada. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM
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November 03, 2008
Process and Talent
Permalink 
Mark Ellis  , the A's encouraged good process at the plate. They'd praise a player who struck out looking on an outside pitch, but have words with someone who swung at a ball, even if it resulted in a good outcome.
This resulted in 2008 with a number of players on the team who can draw a walk, but don't hit:
All of these players show good process at the plate, as indicated by earning a much higher OBA than batting average. They're good at not swinging at bad pitches. The problem is that they're bad swinging at good pitches. The whole point of developing good selectivity, good process, is to get the batters better pitches to hit, so they can smack the ball around. If a team's hitters don't have the talent to execute on good pitches, then why have them on the team? Jack Cust is a good hitter, in the mold of Rob Deer, Ken Phelps and Adam Dunn. None of these, players however, should be the best hitter on a team. If you think about the greatest hitters of all time, or even today, they hit for average in addition to getting on base and hitting for power. They possess talent to go with their great selectivity at the plate. The Athletics will claim they can't afford those players. Fine, they're not going to sign Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez to a big contract. Oakland, however, is not developing those players, either. The players they bring along have the process, but not the talent that makes the process effective. Until they find batters who can turn good pitches into hits, they are going to continue to wallow in walks that fill but fail to drain the bases. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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October 31, 2008
A Dash of Bitters
Permalink The Soxaholix is just a little bit bitter about the Red Sox losing to the Rays. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 AM
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October 24, 2008
Winning at the Margins
Permalink The Biz of Baseball looks at the cost of a marginal win per team. Only the two Florida teams paid less than $1 million per marginal win. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:13 PM
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October 10, 2008
Enough Curses
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue is done with curses: It doesn't help matters any when the chairman of the team -- and don't get me wrong, I happen to like Crane Kenney and what he's done for this team in the last two years -- hires a priest to spray holy water in the dugout before the first game of the NLDS, just after Lou Piniella had carefully spent the entire season getting his team to concentrate on nothing but baseball. Right. There are no curses. It's just been a run of bad luck. The people now running the Cubs appear to know how to put together a winning team. It's just a matter of time until that strategy pays off. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM
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October 09, 2008
More Staff
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue notes the Chicago National League franchise employees fewer front office staff full time than most clubs in the majors. He's hoping the new owner catches up with the rest of the league. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:24 PM
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October 08, 2008
A Little Regression
Permalink Tangotiger presents a nice data chart showing how in three years the bad teams will likely be better and the good teams will likely be worse. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM
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October 06, 2008
Futility Players
Permalink A shrine to the Cubs futility is growing a Wrigley Field. I like this message: "Dear Cubs 2008, It really hurts knowing I'll never see you again. We had some great times." They're lovable losers no more. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM
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October 05, 2008
Quote of the Day
Permalink TNT interrupted Titanic to show the start of the Red Sox game. Metstradamus wonders: If TNT had interrupted Titanic with a regular season Mets game, would anyone have known the difference? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM
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Lovable No More
Permalink The Cubs choked. This wasn't a typical Cubs bizarre defeat. There was no unprecedented come back, no fan knocking the ball away. It wasn't even a hard fought set of games in which luck just went the other way. The Cubs simply stunk in a series in which they should have dominated. The Dodgers out-walked the Cubs 14-6. During the regular season, the Cubs drew 636 walks, the most in the NL, while the Dodgers took just 543. good for tenth. I was fairly unconvinced about the Cubs early in the season, but their walk rate turned me around. This was a selective team that worked the counts and was willing to lay off pitches they couldn't hit. That put them on base more, and had the side effect of improving their hitting as well. Getting better pitches, their BA went up seven points versus 2007, and their slugging percentage rose 21 points. Chicago did everything well on offense. Then, for three games, they threw the playbook out the window. They flailed at first pitches and reached for balls in the dirt. Instead of working the count, they let the count work them. Even during the regular season, the when the Cubs hit poorly against the Dodgers, they still drew three walks a game. The pitching also kept them in those regular season games, in which the Dodgers hit even worse. Los Angeles changed, however. Not only did the Dodgers add Manny's big bat, but they finally decide to play the youngsters. Kent, and Pierre barely touched a bat in the series, while Jones and Garciaparra were not seen at all. This was a better hitting team. Still, the Cubs put three aces on the hill against them! Dempster and Harden were lights on. Zambrano was hurt more by his defense than his own pitching, but didn't exactly shut down the Dodgers either. Everyone on that team was hittable. So the best squad in the National League, maybe the best team in baseball doesn't hit well, doesn't pitch well, doesn't field well and gets swept by a Los Angeles team that barely finished over .500. What is so lovable about these losers? There are no excuses this time:
Will people still swarm to Wrigley to watch this team? The Cub Reporter: You follow a baseball team for six months, 161 games, and just about every play of every inning and then they go and just tear your heart out. The one time you really needed them, the one thing you ever wanted out of this relationship and they can't even be bothered to show up. For six months they were the best girlfriend a guy could imagine - not only did you have that special spark with them, but they had all the fundamentals as well. They were the kind of girl that you needed more than she needed you, but still would bring you lasagna at work...just because it was a Wednesday. Eventually, I will post a recap of this utter disaster, but it may take me a day or so. Until then, I want this post to stand alone on the front page as a monument to the worst performance I have seen in 45 years as a Cubs fan. Exactly. There was nothing redeeming about this loss, no wait until next year moment. On the 100th anniversary of their last championship, the Cubs teased their fans with greatness, only to go down without a fight. This was Foreman-Frazier, except the Cubs got knocked down just three times. No gimicks can erase this series. The only good thing that might come out of this loss is a conviction that Alfonso Soriano should not bat leadoff. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM
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October 03, 2008
Marlins Want to be the '82 Yankees
Permalink I can't believe I'm reading this: For a sweet change, this won't be the kind of shake-up that has twice before followed Marlins success -- a fire sale to drastically cut player payroll. That is the one benefit of being last in the majors in payroll: Tough to drastically cut what barely exists. Don't these people read old Bill James Abstracts? From page 96 of the 1983 edition, in regards to the Yankees signing Dave Collins the previous off season: In the ledger of bad ideas of historical magnitude, enter now the name of George Steinbrenner, cited for his 1981 argument that the era of the home run was over, and that the Yankees were to become a slashing, speed-based team in tune with the 1980s. The chance that this might work was roughly equal to the chance that Ronald Reagan might marry Joan Baez. ... The article goes on to show the average finish of teams who led the league in certain offensive stats. Teams that led in runs scored had the highest average finish, followed by triples, Slugging Pct, home runs, doubles, batting average, walks and stolen bases. James then looked at the average place of the teams that finished last in those categories and took the difference. The two most important stats were runs scored and slugging percentage. Last was stolen bases. So the Marlins are going to trade power for speed? Good luck with that. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM
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October 02, 2008
Time to Take Charge
Permalink Metstradamus makes a good point about Wright and Reyes: But clearly, and as illustrated by people like hate list inductee Mike Francesa ... misguided as he may be on this ... the honeymoon is over for Wright and Reyes. They've been known as the future for so long they've gotten numerous passes from all of us. But the grace period ended as the era at Shea Stadium ended ... especially for Wright. And it's not fair. Reyes hasn't been quite as Teflon as Wright when it comes to criticism at home (he's gotten plenty of it from elsewhere from his dancing), but both have had their ascension to the forefront of the ballclub unchallenged for the most part. But now that they're there, it's time for the duo to shed their remaining weak points and take this game by the neck and shake the success out of it. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM
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September 28, 2008
The Tiger Shuffle
Permalink Jim Leyland announced that Brandon Inge will play third base in 2009 and Carlos Guillen will take over in leftfield. That is, if Leyland survives as manager and Dave Dombrowski doesn't tear the team apart in an effort to rebuild. When a team is designed to win a World Series and it finishes last, more needs to be done than moving names on a depth chart. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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September 24, 2008
Real or Easy?
Permalink Royals Authority wonders if the strong end to the season by Kansas City is real progress. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM
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September 22, 2008
Death Spiral
Permalink DMZ fears the Mariners will continue to sink in talent while the team still makes money. There's no incentive to win when the dough keeps rolling in. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM
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September 21, 2008
Bad Attitude
Permalink South Side Sox quotes Orlando Cabrera on how the White Sox can't handle falling behind in a game. "One of the things we are missing right now is we don't know how to trail," Cabrera said. "Once the other team scores before us, it seems like we lose hope. Does anyone have the number of comeback wins by the White Sox? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM
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September 20, 2008
Seattle Slide
Permalink I thought we might avoid a 100 loss team this season, but the Seattle Mariners lost their tenth game in a row today, making their reaching 63 wins highly improbable. Their offense, not strong all year, really went in the tank during the first nine games of the streak. Today's seven run outburst marked only the second time in the streak that they scored at least four runs. They've scored just 24 runs, suffering shutouts three times in the last ten games. They've allowed 57 runs, but four of the losses were by two runs or less. I suspect the players, management and fans of the Mariners can't wait for this season to end. This team hasn't lost 100 games since 1983. With eight games to go, they could still lose 105 games, which would set a franchise record. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM
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Big Bats on the Way?
Permalink Lewis Wolff answered questions about the Athletics speaking to the team's booster club. These two answers seem to be contradictory: Q: Will you bring in any big bats in the offseason? It's tough to being in big bats if you're not willing to pay for them. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM
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September 17, 2008
Royals Wonderings
Permalink The Royals are playing better. They've won five in a row and six of their last seven. Both the offense and pitching are contributing to the wins, and in general Trey Hillman's stock rose with the club. Sam Mellinger, however, points out something strange about last night's lineup that's tough to explain. Hillman dropped Jose Guillen from the lineup at the last minute without explanation. Here's Guillen's explanation: So then Guillen is reached at home Tuesday night on his cell phone. Mellinger is at a loss. Why would Hillman be mysterious about an innocent explanation? Either way, Guillen was convincing and sounded genuinely surprised that there'd be any question about why he didn't play. So Mellinger remains confused about Hillman's statements. No one is lying, it just seems there's too much mystery for a simple explanation. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM
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Back Page News
Permalink There's a great photo at Nationals Enquirer of the Mets after their 1-0 loss to Washington Tuesday night. He also points to this telling NY Post headline. With the Yankees falling out of the playoff race, the Mets easily won the back page of tabloids. This, however, wasn't what they had in mind. Update: Ben Shpigel can believe what he just saw. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM
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September 15, 2008
Lewis and Liz
Permalink Joe Christensen posts on how the Twins approached Radhames Liz and how they should approach Scott Lewis. The Twins waited for Liz to be wild and he poured in strikes. Lewis did the same thing in his first start, so Joe expects Minnesota to be more aggressive tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM
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September 12, 2008
Downward Trend
Permalink AZ Snakepit posts a graph showing how 2007 was an outlier for the Diamondbacks. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:11 PM
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September 10, 2008
Keeping the World Safe
Permalink AZ Snakepit notes how the Diamondbacks saved the world from annihilation. This collapse surprises me the most. Coming into the season, I thought the front office got things mostly right. I wasn't crazy about the Eric Byrnes signing, but he was a fan favorite, so I understood they wanted to keep them happy. They brought in Haren to give the team an excellent 1-2 punch. The hitters were young, but a year old and more experienced. When they got off to a good start, I thought they were going to be the 2007 Rockies, but for the whole season, not just September. It turns out, they were the Rockies for April. The Carlos Quentin deal seemed like a good one at the time, but I bet they wish they had that back right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:10 PM
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The Manager Sounds Worried
Permalink "We're playing like we're waiting to get beat," (Cubs manager Lou) Piniella said as he stood behind his office desk, his voice rising. "You don't have enough big of a lead in September to play ball like that. Teams that play baseball like that invariably get caught no matter how big their lead. You've got to stay aggressive. You've got to do the things that you've done all year. Someone get Lou a Yoda mask! Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM
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September 09, 2008
Just Wondering
Permalink Twins fans, did the team make the right move trading Johan Santana? Right now, the Twins are having a surprisingly good season but are faltering. If the team coughed up the money for Johan, they might be running away with the division and have a better chance if they actually make the playoffs. Is the future so bright that you think the team made the right move trading a possible World Championship this season for future success? Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM
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September 08, 2008
A Song in my Heart
Permalink Chris Jaffe ponders the perfect theme song for each team this season. He did a particularly good job on the AL Central. Of course, including a Blondie song helps. :-) One of my truly useless skills is remembering the words to old TV theme songs. Recently, my daughter didn't get a Mr. Ed reference (having spent 18 years with me, she's pretty good at obscure references to '60s TV shows). That caused me to break out into the entire opening and closing theme, in front of her friends, which of course embarrassed her no end. The joys of fatherhood. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 AM
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Bleak Future?
Permalink Giants Win is worried about San Francisco going down the same path as Pittsburgh. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM
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September 07, 2008
A Losing Record
Permalink AOL FanHouse notes the Pirates lost their 82nd game of the season today, making this the 16th year in a row they produced a losing record: With today's loss, the Pirates clinched a losing season. That seems unimportant because the Pirates do that every year, but that's EXACTLY why it is important. With this loss today, the Pirates clinched their sixteenth consecutive losing season, tying the record for an American sports franchise set by the 1933-1948 Philadelphia Phillies, a team so bad that they changed their name to the Blue Jays for two years in the middle of the streak. The article also notes the team has a good chance of making it 17 in a row, setting a new record. I don't know about that. They made some good trades, and with a little luck and .450 team can finish above .500. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM
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Score Difference
Permalink The Dodgers finished a sweep of the Diamondbacks this afternoon, taking the game 5-3. It was the eighth win in a row for Los Angeles after an eight game losing streak. Both streaks seemed to depend on the offense, as they did not score more than four runs in any of the eight losses, and haven't scored fewer than five runs in any of the eight wins. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 PM
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Two out of Three Ain't Bad
Permalink The Red Sox defeated the Rangers this afternoon 7-2, taking two out of three from Texas. The road presented a challenge for the Red Sox for most of the season, but since the Angels swept them in Anaheim, Boston swept or split every road series they've played. The Red Sox are 15-6 in their last 21 road games, taking two out of three except for a sweep of Seattle and a four-game split with the White Sox. They are now only three games under .500 on the road, the same as Tampa Bay. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM
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Rockies in 2009
Permalink Purple Row sees the Rockies late season success as a good sign for 2009. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM
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September 06, 2008
Faltering Bullpen
Permalink The Twins bullpen pitched poorly again today, blowing a lead and allowing Detroit a 6-4 victory. Starting on 8/23, the Twins pen has an ERA of 6.49 and the team's record stands at 4-10. The relievers owns a 3.91 ERA before that date. The bullpen is costing their team games as the relievers owns an 0-7 record with six blown saves in that stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM
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September 04, 2008
The Pirates Problem
Permalink Steve Pearce singled in two runs this afternoon as the Pirates take an early 3-0 lead on the Reds. Pearce, however, represents how the Pirates misvalued their prospects. He put up pretty good numbers in the minor leagues. However, coming out of college, he was probably a little old for some of the levels. He's 25 now, and just getting his second go-round with the major league club. Despite slugging over .500 in the minors, he's gone 126 at bats (entering today) without a home run. Rather than spending age 22, 23 and part of age 24 at single A, shouldn't the Pirates have promoted him quicker so the competition was more up to his level? I look at his stats and think he had it too easy, and now just can't handle major league pitching very well. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM
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Dodgers Dingers
Permalink The Dodgers downed the Padres 6-4 last night, blasting three more home runs as they kept pace with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Manny Ramirez's contribution was just two walks, since his arrival the power on Los Angeles jumped. Through 7/31, the Dodger slugged .376 with 74 home runs in 108 games. Since, they slugged .454 with 41 home runs in 32 games. It's as if Manny showed them how to swing for the fences again. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM
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September 03, 2008
Streaks
Permalink The Cubs lose to the Astros 4-0, the third time this year Houston shutout the Cubs. For some reason, the Houston pitching staff matches up well against Chicago. The Cubs losing streak goes to five games, and visions of 1969 are dancing in the stands at Wrigley. The Cubs are coming off a nine-game win streak, however. If the Cubs were winning two then losing one, no one would be that upset. So remember, the Cubs are 9-5 over their last 14 games. That's a .643 winning percentage. The same thing happened to the Rays. Remember their seven game losing streak? That was preceded by an 11-1 run, making them 11-8 over a nineteen game span. That was a much better measure of where they were going than either streak. The Cubs are probably going to be okay. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 PM
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Not Ready for Playoff Time?
Permalink The Mets finish the sweep of the Brewers Wednesday afternoon by a score of 9-2. Church hit a grand slam and Schneider added a solo shot in the first as the Mets took a 6-0 lead and never looked back. The much maligned Mets relievers gave up just one hit over 2 1/3 innings of work. The Brewers are staying in the race by crushing the weaker teams in the league. They played the Cubs the last series in July and were swept. Starting with that series, they are 1-9 against playoff contenders Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, 19-4 against everyone else. It makes you wonder how well they might do if they reach the post season. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM
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Keeping Aviles
Permalink As Dayton Moore appears ready to blow up the Royals, Royals Authority makes the case that Mike Aviles should stay. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 AM
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August 31, 2008
Summing Up the Tigers Season
Permalink After a 13-3 loss to the Royals on Saturday, Bless You Boys sums up the Tigers: Owned, pwned, fail - whatever you want to call it, it's plain ugly. Just when you think the Tigers have fallen as low as they can go, they push those shovels a little deeper and find further depths. The same might be said of Kenny Rogers, especially when he's facing the Royals. Last night, he allowed six runs on eight hits - including three home runs, two by rejuvenated Tigers killer Billy Butler - in six innings. In five starts against Kansas City this season (the most he's faced any team this year), Rogers has a 1-4 record and 7.07 ERA. That can be a problem with pitchers in their 40s. At some point their athleticism fades, and eventually the ability to fool batters. I assume he made five starts against the Royals because Leyland knew Rogers was a weak link in the staff and wanted to put him in a situation where he could succeed. The Royals are the second lowest scoring team in the AL, but even they ripped apart Rogers. The probability is farily high that Kenny won't be back next season. (Note, however, that the Royals do hit lefties much better than righties.) Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM
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August 27, 2008
Requiem for the Yankees
Permalink The Red Sox defeated the Yankees 11-3 tonight, pushing New York seven games back in the wild card standings and for all intents and purposes ending the chance of the Yankees making the playoffs. This isn't a good team playing poorly. No one sits there thinking, "If only Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner can live up to their potential." Age, injuries, and lack of depth caught up with this group, and in the last season in the House that Ruth built they're more than likely to be watching the playoffs from the sidelines. It was a great run. For thirteen straight seasons New York played in the post season. They fielded the greatest team I've ever seen in 1998. They won three World Championships in a row for the first time in 25 years, and came a few feet away from making it four in a row. The organization gave us Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. They turned Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius into stars. The Yankees turned Joe Torre into a Hall of Famer. He experienced some moderate success as a manager before the Yankees, but New York proved to be the perfect fit for Joe's personality and methods. He took over an intelligent team. He protected them from the owner and the media, and they produced wins and comebacks. He showed that someone could manage under Steinbrenner for the long term. The team was always interesting. Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, David Wells, Mike Mussina, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon showed they weren't afraid to spend to money. They generated headlines, controversy, adulation, and yes, wins. While it was clear for a while this teams wasn't as good as the ones of the last decade, tonight pretty much seal the deal. In two games that would make them contenders once again, the Yankees went down without much of a fight. So it goes. Now the team can focus on next year. They'll have money, a new stadium, and a good group of stars. I suspect they won't be down for long. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM
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The Positive Side of Sabermetrics
Permalink Beyond the Boxscore takes a look at how sabermetric teams are doing this year and concludes they are doing just fine. It seems to me that if sabermetric teams and more traditional teams are both at .500, it doesn't really matter which side you choose. Given that RJ actually figured out which teams were truly sabermetric (the Rays are), it's not as bad as I thought in this post. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:08 PM
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August 24, 2008
Nick'en Little
Permalink Nick Carfardo pens "The Sky is Falling" piece on the Red Sox: Is the sky falling? The Red Sox came into the season with some of the same concerns as the Yankees. They had some older players who might decline (Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz, Ramriez, Wakefield), some injury risks (Drew, Beckett) and some dependence on youth (Ellsbury, Pedrioa, Lester and Buchholz). The Yankees problems manifested themselves early, so New York had time to deal with them. The Bronx Bombers are better now than early in the season, although probably not good enough to make the playoffs. The Red Sox faced some problems early (Ortiz, Buchholz) but had the depth at that time to weather the adversity. Now, with a number of injuries coming at once and most avenues for change closed, Boston finds itself in a tough position. Instead of just worrying about the Yankees, they find themselves challenged by two teams from the midwest. Boston, Chicago and Minnesota are 2-3-4 in the AL in runs per game in August, all around six runs per game. The Twins are tied with Tampa Bay at 3.38 for the best ERA in AL, however, with Chicago 0.8 runs back in 5th and Boston another 0.6 back in 8th for the month. The Red Sox are scoring enough to keep winning, but they may be allowing too many to keep pace with the Twins and the White Sox. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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August 21, 2008
Unusual Combination
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Cliff Lee Cleveland's two best players came through today in a 10-3 win over the Royals. Cliff Lee won game number 18. He gave up two earned runs in seven innings. He allowed eight base runners, but induced four double plays to remove half of them. Lee is now sixteen games over .500. If the rest of the played .500, Cleveland's record would be 71-55, in contention in the AL Central. On the batting side, Grady Sizemore posted a four for five day. He missed the cycle by a double, driving in seven runs. His triple and homer drove in three runs each. This all from the leadoff spot. Sizemore now has 79 RBI and 78 runs scored on the season. Cliff Lee sits atop the AL Cy Young race. He combines the best record with the best ERA, and his three pure pitching stats, strikeouts, home runs and walks are all great. At this point, there's no reason not to award him the trophy. Grady Sizemore makes a legitimate claim on the MVP award. Sizemore came into the day third in runs created. Win Shares ranks him fifth. Right now, he would not get the prize, but a good finish could put him on the top of both categories. There's no reason to think he won't get support in the top five.  Grady Sizemore Thinks about that. A team well under .500 could produce both the Cy Young award winner and the MVP. Nothing like that ever happened before. Eighteen times a batter and pitcher won the two awards from the same team (I'm not counting season when the pitcher wins both). The only time the team didn't make the playoffs was in 1962. Maury Wills won the MVP and Don Drysdale the Cy Young for the Dodgers. Los Angeles won 102 games but finished one behind the Giants. A team with a great hitter and a great pitcher is usually a great team. That's the big failure of the Cleveland franchise this season. They failed to surround these starts with players capable of playing decent ball around them. Part of it was poor timing. Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Fausto Carmona all going down at the same time hurt. Hafner showed signs of decline in 2007, and the Indians didn't prepare for more of the same. Carmona's innings made him a candidate for an injury, and the Indians didn't really find a way to replace him. Cleveland tried to move Victor Martinez to first in the past; that might have saved the catcher from the decline and the injury. Two superstars and a good supporting cast gets a team into contention and often to the playoffs. The Indians got half the equation right, and that may result in the most unusual Cy Young-MVP combination in history. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM
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August 18, 2008
The Good Pitcher Theory
Permalink YFSF looks at how the Red Sox perform against the best pitchers in the league and find they lose more than other top offenses. I like these kind of studies, and if I have time later today I'll run a similar program I wrote. My guess is that the Red Sox are a bit walk dependent, and as the good starters average just two walks per start against Boston, they're taking away a key part of the team's offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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August 15, 2008
Opposite Offenses
Permalink The Dodgers defeated the Phillies Thursday night to send the NL East team into second place in their division. Both squads are pitching well in August (as last night's score indicates) but the offense moved in opposite directions:
In August the Phillies scored 5.0 runs per game and the Dodgers scored 4.5. The Manny trade worked so far. If I'm a Phillies fan, however, I'd be encouraged by the team's ERA. Philadelphia's offense is good. They're going to produce runs. If the pitching can maintain this level, that offense will win them lots of games down the stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM
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August 14, 2008
Offensive Outage
Permalink The St. Louis Cardinals shutout the Florida Marlins 3-0 to take the series three games to one. With Johnson, Sanchez and Volstad in the rotation, the Marlins offense seems to be taking the month off. They've scored 4.7 runs per game over all, but only 3.2 runs per game so far in August. They're just 5-8 in the month, and lost a chance to gain on the Phillies as the Mets have done. The Cardinals close the gap with Milwaukee to three games. They only averaged four runs a game in the series, but that was enough to beat a Marlins team that lost it's power. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM
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Eight in a Row
Permalink The Astros extend their winning streak to eight games, defeating the Giants 7-4 this afternoon. Tejada and Berkman combined to break a 4-4 tie in the eighth inning as Miguel singled and Lance followed with his 25th home run of the season. The Astros have scored at least six runs in six of the games and have not allowed more than five. Unfortunately, both the Brewers and Cubs are hot, going 8-2 over their last 10 through Wednesday. That makes gaining ground for the playoffs difficult. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:32 PM
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August 10, 2008
F's for the A's
Permalink The Oakland Athletics fall to the Tigers 4-1. The manage just one run off Nate Robertson in 7 2/3 innings. Nate Robertson walked just one and struck out five. This is the same Nate Robertson who came into the game with a 6.11 ERA, 42 walks and just 85 strikeouts. Unfortunately for the A's, this performance has been typical over the last month. Since July 12th, the team's record stands at 3-20. The have been outscored by 63 runs, an average of 2.7 runs per game. That's pretty much the level of scoring for the team, 2.8 runs per game. You can't blame it all on the offense, however. The pitchers have allowed 127 runs, 5.5 per game. What was once the best starting staff in the AL owns a 5.89 ERA over this period. I'm a big a fan of Billy Beane as anyone, but he screwed up this year. This was a team in contention, arguably playing better ball than the LAnaheim Angels, even though it didn't show up in the won-loss record. In the past, Beane was able to make mid-season trades that improved the team and sent them on winning streaks almost as good as this losing streak. This time, however, he tore the heart out of the pitching staff, and the result is a team that obviously no longer cares and no longer even tries to win. Nate Robertson is a hittable pitcher. The Athletics, however, trot out a lineup that can't get on base, can't hit for power, and can't score runs. It's a joke and an embarrassment. Greg Smith lasted just 4 2/3 because he walked seven batters and ran up his pitch count. He was lucky to allow just one run. The A's may have a plan, but it's getting harder to see. Maybe keeping Haren and Harden and drafting players who can actually hit would have been a better strategy. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM
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One-Two Punch
Permalink With the second complete game shutout in two games, Nationals Enquirer wonders what happened to the new look Nationals? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM
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August 05, 2008
Milwaukee Scuffle
Permalink The fight between Prince Fielder and Manny Parra appeared to be over Parra wanting to leave the bench after he was lifted for a pinch hitter and Fielder wanting him to stay. So this could turn into a positive team building exercise. Once again, people make too much of streaks. The Brewers are 11-8 over their last 19 games. That winning percentage would be good for 94 wins over a full season. If that same record came in two or three game spurts of winning and losing, they'd be in the same place they are and no one would be too worried about the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM
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July 27, 2008
Watch Out for the Rockies
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Ubaldo Jimenez holds a 2.04 ERA in July. That's the story of the whole month, too. The Rockies allowed three runs or less in 14 of their 22 games, helping them to a 15-7 record. The team ERA for the month, however, is 4.71, due to 54 of their runs allowed coming in four games. The starting staff posts a 4.48 ERA for the month, but again, four bad starts accounts for the high level. Overall, the staff is walking less than three batters per nine innings and allowing just 17.4 home runs per 200 innings. The Rockies pitching is now solid. Just six games out of the lead in a weak division, the Rockies may want to look for a bat that helps now if they trade away some pitching. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM
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July 26, 2008
Hanging on the Fringes
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Mariners this afternoon 8-3. That's five wins in a row for Toronto, putting them temporarily seven games out of the wild card and eight games out of the division lead. They've scored 35 runs in the five games as their offense is starting to come around. Granted, these games were all against last place teams, but a run at the playoffs has to start somewhere. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:51 PM
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July 23, 2008
Cubs Collapse?
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18 July 2008: Aramis Ramirez flies out to center field during a baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros. One thing is that the team appears to be a bit less selective. The leading team in the NL in walks drawn took only nine base on balls in the last five games. They seemed to be getting that back last night, however, as they did collect five against the Diamondbacks. The biggest factor, however, appears to be a slump by the middle of the lineup. The table setters, the 1-2 hitters, are getting on base quite well. So far there's little offense behind them, however. The 3-4-5- hitters have combined for seven hits in 60 at bats with one double and one home run. This resulted in just five RBI despite the 1-2 hitters reaching 20 times in the five games. The biggest culprit is Aramis Ramirez in an 0 for 20 slump, but Lee and Soto are also not delivering. Should Cubs fans be worried? Probably not. These are not hitters who have been playing over their heads crashing to earth. These are good hitters going through a slump at the same time. It won't last, but while it does, the NL Central turns into an exciting pennant race. The Brewers won another from the Cardinals on Tuesday night, moving them just a game behind the Cubs, while the St. Louis remains two back. It's any team's division right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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July 20, 2008
Low Run Turnaround
Permalink The Yankees defeated the Oakland Athletics today 2-1. That was their ninth win of the season when scoring 2 runs or less. They've lost 25 in that situation. In 2007, they went 2-31 scoring two runs or less. They've played more low scoring game than last year, showing their offense has fallen on hard time, but this season, the pitching is making up the difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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July 15, 2008
Must Be Missing the Angels
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Ervin Santana pitches a complete game shutout in Kansas City on May 5, 2008. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim not only hold the biggest lead of any first place team, they are tied with the Cubs for the best record in baseball. The Cubs own the highest run difference (Runs Scored-Runs Allowed) in baseball, so it's not surprising they have the best record. The Angels, on the other hand, have out-scored their opponents by just 21 runs, more in-line with a 50-45 seasons, seven games worse. The Angels are one of the few teams this season that excels on the road. Their 31-18 record is the best in the majors. The offense is about the same, scoring about 4.3 runs per game both home and road. The pitching, however, is posting a 3.45 ERA on the road, the best in the majors. Some credit here goes to Ervin Santana, who is 8-1 with a 3.44 ERA away from Anaheim after a horrible performance away last season. So the Angels are a good road team that is over performing at home. They own a 26-20 record in Anaheim despite being outscored there. I like that combination for continued success. With Guerrero's bat heating up since the start of June, runs should be a bit easier to come by. I'm guessing by the end of the season their run difference is much more in line with a first place team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 AM
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July 11, 2008
Darkened Offense
Permalink The Tampa Bay Rays fall to the Indians 5-0 as Cliff Lee pitches six shutout innings. He lowers his ERA to 2.31. The Rays spread out their eight hits, getting one each in innings two through nine. They've now lost five in a row, scoring just seven runs in the five games. They've also been shut out twice. Luckily for them, both Boston and New York lost tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM
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A Week of Wins
Permalink The Mets, despite issuing nine walks, hold the Rockies to one run as they win their seventh in a row 2-1. Oliver Perez walked six and struck out seven in six innings of work, and only allowed two hits. The Mets bullpen walked three more and struck out four, but only allowed one hit. The Rockies were 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position and left ten men on base, and despite all the walks, their only run came on a solo homer. The Mets pitching has been outstanding during the streak, allowing just nineteen runs and throwing two shutouts. In the one bad game they threw, allowing nine runs, the Mets scored ten. New York scored 44 runs in the seven games. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM
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NL East Tidbits
Permalink My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM
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July 09, 2008
NL East Roundup
Permalink My latest post at MetsBlog.com is up. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:54 AM
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July 08, 2008
Sign of the Times
Permalink If you want to know what's wrong with the Yankees this year, look at the OBAs of the starting lineup this evening. Only two players have OBAs over .350. It used to be that the Yankees might have one player under .350. The bottom four in the order are all under .300. Giambi is out due to a lefty on the mound, and Damon and Matsui are hurt, but this lineup makes clear the lack of depth on the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 PM
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Blaming the Injuries
Permalink Peter Abraham notes Hank Steinbrenner's comments on injuries and makes this observation: Remember back in spring training when the big story was how Joe Girardi's workout program would keep the Yankees healthy this season? So much for that. Well-intentioned as it was, injuries just happen sometimes no matter what you do. Guys get weird fractures or run into walls or get hit by pitches. All the sprints in the world in Tampa can't change that. It's also done nothing to keep Jeter and Abreu's bats fresh. If those two are hitting closer to their career norms, the Yankees would be in much better shape right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:26 PM
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One Hit Wonders
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07 July 2008: Chipper Jones tosses his helmet away after striking out against Hiroki Kuroda. Over their last thirteen games, Atlanta's offense played in a deep funk. As a team, they are hitting .213 with a .284 OBA and a .333 slugging percentage. Those numbers get most individuals sent back to the minors. Their situational hitting is even worse, with just 18 hits in 101 at bats with runners in scoring position. Interestingly, Teixeira, Jones and Blanco are hitting well during this period. So well, in fact, that in order for the team to post such low averages, everyone else is terrible. Jeff Francoeur was sent down, but McCann, Johnson, Kotsay and Escobar are pretty terrible right now as well. This probably makes a trade of Teixeira more likely. With the Braves falling fast and Mark heating up, now appears to be the time to trade the hitter for some prospects who can fill in the offense over the next couple of seasons. The problem is, about the only contender that can use help at first is the Athletics, and they tend not to trade for free agents. The other bay area team, the Giants, can also use some offense. Playing for now rather than building for the future is the kind of move Sabean has made lately. It should be an interesting month of speculation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM
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July 06, 2008
Change that Works
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Jim Riggleman The Mariners defeated the Tigers Saturday night 3-2. That win gives Seattle a 10-5 record under Jim Riggleman. The offense was sputtering under John McLaren, but they appear to have come to life under the new manager.
The power isn't there, but the team is doing a much better job of putting batters on base. When the bases keep getting filled, runners tend to come around to score. It also doesn't hurt that the team is hitting .301 with runners in scoring position under Jim. As you can see from looking at individuals, Sexson's 14 walks are making up for his continued lack of power. Ichrio is knocking out hits at a high rate, 23 in 15 games. Ibanez, Beltre and Clement are supplying the power. While there still appears to be no complete hitter on the club, most players are doing something useful. There's progress on the pitching side as well. Although they're not going deep in games, Bedard, Dickey and Washburn all pitched well under McLaren. The rotation is 6-4, but with an excellent 3.40 ERA under Riggleman. Unfortunately, the Angels are 9-5 in that time, so while the Mariners no long have the worst record in the majors, they've only gained 1/2 game in the standings. With Toronto 7-7 under Gaston and the Mets 9-9 under Manuel, Seattle is the only club so far where the manager made a difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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July 01, 2008
Red Sox in June
Permalink Lyflines conducts an audit of the Red Sox performance in June. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM
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Waiting for the Team Fight
Permalink Metstradamus is waiting for the Mets version of Shawn Chacon and Manny Ramirez: But when it happens, it's going to be huge. And make no mistake, when you pour an underachieving team into a pot and mix it with a bitter fan base and let a relentless media horde turn up the heat to about 450, it's going to happen. Only question is when. Maybe after this Cardinals series, which ... with Tony Armas Jr. starting tomorrow, and the unhittable albatross from last September Joel Piniero ... is already shaping up to be a disaster. But the explosion is coming. Make sure your disaster kit is ready. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM
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June 30, 2008
Just Luck
Permalink Al's Rambling looks to see if bullpen performance or batting with runners in scoring position are the reasons for teams being off from their expected W/L percentage. He concludes it's mostly luck. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 PM
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Pivotal Week
Permalink Henry Schulman believes this week will make or break the Giants. San Francisco faces the Cubs and the Dodgers in SF, but the Giants are playing poorly at home: Start with the Cubs. They have the best record in the NL (49-33) but a) are coming off being swept by the White Sox, b) are 16-23 on the road, c) will not have team RBI leader Aramis Ramirez for the first three games of the series because (unfortunately) he has a family emergency in the Dominican Republic, d) will not have Carlos Zambrano or Alfonso Soriano, who are still hurt and e) had to do the long overnight fly-west thing the Giants just did going from Cleveland to Oakland. San Francisco is just five games out of first place in the NL West. With no one else in the division playing well, if the Giants pitching can stop a depleted Cubs lineup and a hitless Dodgers lineup, we might see San Francisco in second place by the end of the week. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM
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June 25, 2008
Not Good
Permalink Purple Row sums up the Rockies season: Let me be succinct: if a team can't win on the road against other bad teams, they are themselves a bad team. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 PM
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Hatchet Man
Permalink With a great title, Ducksnorts succinctly sums up last night's Padres game. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM
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June 23, 2008
Turnaround Fair Play
Permalink With an 8-4 win over the Rockies tonight, the Kansas City Royals are now 9-2 in their last 11 games. During their losing streak, they would lose when the pitching performed well, dropping games 2-1, 3-1 and 4-3. They'd lose when they offense worked well, finding themselves on the wrong end of 11-8 and 9-8 scores. Now that's turned around. In these nine wins they've taken games by scores of 2-1, 3-2 and 4-1, as well as big scoring games like Sunday's 11-10 come back win against the Giants. The starting pitchers are definitely better as they've posted a 3.04 ERA over the last eleven games. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM
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Denbo Split
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays hitters seem to be split on former batting coach Gary Denbo. Matt Stairs didn't like Denbo's approach: Matt Stairs likes what he hears from Gene Tenace, the Toronto Blue Jays new hitting coach. And he is not bashful about declaring that the former coach, Gary Denbo, did not suit his style. Rolen and Overbay disagree: But after the offence stepped up in Sunday's 8-5 win over Pittsburgh, Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay maintained that Denbo did not endorse a passive approach. I'm guessing Denbo tried to push all batters into a particular hitting style, rather than trying to recognize a hitter's strength and working with those. Those that match his style will like him, those that don't won't. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM
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Singles Don't Attract Singles
Permalink Seth Kolloen discovers an unintended consequence of the Mariners losing. The singles scene disappeared from Safeco Field. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM
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Searching for a Shortstop
Permalink This from the Orioles notebook: The Baltimore Orioles designated infielder Freddie Bynum for assignment yesterday, and manager Dave Trembley said Alex Cintron will be the team's third starting shortstop this season. Baltimore shortstops are producing a .233/.274/.280 line this season. The AL average for shortstops is .260/.311/.361. Cintron's career numbers are a bit better than the AL average, so if he can just hits those marks it will be a huge improvement for the Orioles. If you have a problem with offense at first base, it should be fairly easy to find a solution, provided you're willing to give up some defense. At shortstop, however, all the good hitters are already taken, so filling an offensive gap at the important defensive position is much more difficult, as the Orioles are discovering this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM
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June 22, 2008
Two Good Weeks
Permalink The Tigers downed the Padres this afternoon 5-3. Starting June 7, the Tigers are 12-3, the best record in the majors. The Yankees are right behind them at 11-4. Both squads got off to poor starts this season, but given enough time and adjustments, they're both hitting their strides. The Tigers have scored 82 runs in their 15 games, better than five per game. More importantly, they've allowed just 56 runs, less than four per game. The pitching was a bigger problem than the offense, and now both are playing extremely well. Detroit could be just five games out by the end of the night, and the White Sox are losing 5-0 to the Cubs. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 PM
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Ned's Wallbangers
Permalink The Brewers hit four home runs this afternoon against the Orioles as they take the contest 7-3. That gives the Brewers 39 long balls in the month of June, the most in the majors pending the outcome of the White Sox-Cubs game. The southsiders hit 37 so far in June. They've equaled their May win total of 13, but so far with 10 fewer losses as they've only fallen six times. The are six games out of first place, but only two games out of the wild card. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 PM
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June 20, 2008
Pummeling the Mariners
Permalink The media, both old and new, is having a field day with the Mariners this morning. First, Art Thiel in the Post-Intelligencer: One constant voice with the Mariners is Chuck Armstrong, the longtime president who raised that voice on June 4 too, berating McLaren and the coaching staff before invoking not James Earl Jones but John Paul Jones, Revolutionary War hero whose famous quote, "I have not yet begun to fight," was reportedly relayed with much passion. At Lookout Landing, a new Mariners slogan: Something that just came to mind - you know what's a good mark of a terrible team? When the dismissal of its GM, manager, first baseman, and DH means that none of them will ever land the same position ever again. Forget Mojo Risin'; the real team slogan should've been 2008 Seattle Mariners: Career Destroyer. God we suck. Whoever takes over as GM and manager on a permanent basis is going to need to love a challenge. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM
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Are the Rays for Real?
Permalink The title is a question I've seen pop up on a number of the radio interviews I've done lately. With a sweep of the Cubs, the team with the best record in the majors, the answer is looking more and more like yes. They've out scored their opponents by 32 runs, meaning they've been playing over their heads a bit, and should have three fewer wins. A 40-32 record still makes them the wild card, however. There were huge questions about the Rays bullpen going into the season, but right now the group is posting a 3.32 ERA. That's keeping them in games late, one reason for their 12-7 record in one-run games. They're tied for four in the AL with a 3.84 ERA, the same as the Red Sox. The offense is still middle of the road. At 4.57 runs per game, they rank right in the middle of the American League teams at seventh. They're seventh in OBA and slugging percentage. So they have an okay offense and a good pitching staff. They're not a great team, but the offense is good enough for the pitching staff. If you look at the aggregate offensive numbers of the fielding positions, the Rays have a good chance to improve run scoring. Leftfield, rightfield and designated hitter are three positions that could be upgraded in a trade, and DH should be the easiest of those to fill. Doesn't Adam Dunn fill that spot nicely? Right now, the Rays are not quite as good as their record indicates, but they are legitimately a wild card team. The pitching is fine, and the places where the offense is weak are spots that are not difficult to upgrade. I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, but I expect them to contend until the end. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM
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June 19, 2008
Interleague Indians
Permalink The Indians lost to the Colorado Rockies Wednesday 4-2 as Colorado gets another well pitched game by Jeff Francis. The Indians are now 2-6 in interleague play, the worst record in the AL. That's costing them in the division. All four of their AL Central opponents won on Wednesday. Overall, Chicago and Kansas City are 6-2 against the NL, Detroit 6-3 and Minnesota 5-3. The Indians may be the biggest recipients of random bad luck over the last four seasons. In 2005 they arguably played better than the White Sox, but couldn't defeat Chicago in the last week of the season. They could not build on their 2005 success, and fell back under .500 in 2006. In 2007, they appeared to put it all together, then blew a 3-1 lead to the Red Sox in the ALCS. Once again, they're following a good but unlucky season with poor play. I often wonder why Wedge never seems to be on the hot seat. Update: Waiting for Next Year is not happy with Wedge. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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June 18, 2008
Reds Runs
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds lost to the Dodgers tonight 6-1, the second game in a row in which they scored just one run. Over their last eight games, Cincinnati scored a total of 17 runs. In addition to the two one-run games, they've also been shutout twice. I'm guessing there are two many runners clogging the bases. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM
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Meeting Expectations
Permalink The Tigers defeated the San Francisco Giants Tuesday night 5-1. In their last eleven games, Detroit scored five runs or more nine times and allowed less than five runs eight times. That's more like the way I expected the team to play this season. Over the 9-2 stretch, they've scored 61 runs while allowing 40, an average margin over their opponents of about two runs. They've briefly found their stride, now they need to show they can sustain it over a longer period of time. 
16 June 2008: Marcus Thames (33) hits his second homer during the San Francisco Giants' 8-6 victory over the Detroit Tigers at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA. Marcus Thames hit another home run last night. That five straight games for the Detroit outfielder, three short of the consecutive game record. He's also homered in six of his last seven games, seven dingers in total for a 1.273 slugging percentage over the stretch. Those seven are his only hits in those games. He's taking his all or nothing approach to hitting to the max in this stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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Improving Pitching
Permalink The Colorado Rockies pounded the Cleveland Indians Tuesday night, winning by a score of 10-2. The Mile High pitchers continue to post good numbers in June, especially compared to earlier in the season:
They're still in last place, but with Arizona's poor play lately the Rockies are eight games back in the division. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM
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Worn Out
Permalink The Mets looked tired last night. The team made three physical errors and one mental one. The play in the field looked sloppy overall. It makes you wonder if the late night firing of Willie Randolph caused the players to have a sleepless night. After two games Sunday, a late west coast flight, another game Monday, and the drama of Tuesday, the team just didn't look ready to play. 
17 June 2008: New York Mets General Manager Omar Minaya speaks to the media about the earlier firing of Mets Manager Willie Randolph before game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium in Anaheim,CA. Minaya wanted to fire Randolph as soon as possible after he made his decision, out of respect for Willie. I don't think it would have made that much of a difference if Omar had let everyone sleep Monday night and fired Willie over breakfast. Sure, maybe a newspaper would have broken the story, but everyone, including Willie, expected the firing soon. The unnecessary drama appears to have lowered the probability of the Mets winning on Tuesday, and against Lackey they fall 6-1. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 AM
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June 17, 2008
Mariners Still Can't Score
Permalink The Mariners lost to the Marlins Monday night 6-1. Since firing Jeff Petland, Seattle has scored 17 runs in seven games. At some point you have to wonder if firing all the hitters might actually work. Four of the nine Mariner batting slots have aggregate OBAs under .300, and two others are barely above that level. Andrew Miller pulled his ERA under five as he allowed the one run in seven innings of work. The Marlins keep pace with the Phillies and gain 1/2 game on the Cardinals in the wild card race. The St. Louis injuries may benefit the Marlins the most, as it gives them a chance to gain in that race. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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June 15, 2008
Finding Their Stroke
Permalink Since the three 2-1 victories over the Mets, the Padres seem to have found their offense. They've scored 36 runs in their last six games after averaging 3.6 runs per game through their 64 contests. They're hitting for power with ten doubles and ten home runs in their last six games, slugging .509. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 AM
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Youth and Experience
Permalink The Rays defeated the Marlins for the second game in a row as the cross state rivalry continues. Matt Garza pitched seven strong innings, allowing just three hits, one walk and one run. Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival combined to throw two perfect innings to finish off the Fish. Prior to the start of the season, the Rays bullpen was thought to be the weak spot on the team. So far, however, the bullpen is posting a 3.43 ERA to the starter's 4.00. They are allowing fewer hits per nine innings, 9.01 for the starters, 6.91 for the relievers. Both Wheeler and Percival are allowing batting averages below .200. So far, the youthful rotation and the experienced bullpen are just the right combination for putting Tampa Bay in playoff contention. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM
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June 14, 2008
Pitching Returning?
Permalink A comment from my post after the Tigers swept the White Sox: Here's the problem for the Tigres - who's going to give them the 3rd good start in a row? Armando Galarraga stopped the Dodgers 5-0 with seven strong innings of work on Friday night, allowing just three hits and one walk over seven innings. He has a 2.87 ERA in June, despite one poor relief appearance. If the Tigers can keep scoring about five runs a game, they can win with worse pitching than that. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM
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June 12, 2008
Relentless Cubs
Permalink 
8 June 2008: Kerry Wood & Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs celebrate win against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles,CA.
The remind me of the 1998 Yankees. That team outscored their opponents by an average of 1.91 runs per game. The Cubs are at 1.88 per game. I remember that Yankees team hammering middle relief, but that's where memory is never as good as data. The splits show the 1998 Yankees hammered starters from the third inning on. This Cubs teams is feasting on poor pitchers in the sixth and the seventh. The Yankees of 1998 drew a ton of walks, as the Cubs do now. The pushes pitch counts up, forcing opponents into their bullpens sooner. The average NL start this season is 5.7 innings, the average start against the Cubs is 5.6 innings. (In 1998, the average start against the Yankees was 5.7 innings, the average AL start 6.0 innings.) The Cubs 1.88 run difference per game would rank 10th since 1901, just ahead of the 2001 Mariners. All but one team in the top 15 won 100 games, and four of those teams won 110 games. This is certainly looking like the year of the Cubs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM
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June 08, 2008
The 2-1 Padres
Permalink 
Greg Maddux, shown earlier this season, started the Padres winning streak with a strong seven inning performance against the Cubs on June 4th. While the Padres do own six wins when scoring two runs or less. they also lost a ton of games in that situation:
The interesting thing is that the Padres should have been blowing out their opponents in the last four games. Look at the difference in batting stats. That's a good line for San Diego Batters:
Padres batters are 5 for 39 with men in scoring position during these four games. The offense starts innings fine, but doesn't finish them well. The three home runs they hit were all solo shots. It's an amazing four game winning streak, made so by the ineptitude of the Padres offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM
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June 04, 2008
Where's the Offense?
Permalink The Brewers played another great game this afternoon, downing the Diamondbacks 10-1. Parra struck out eight over seven innings for the win. So what happened to the DBacks offense? Over the last 18 games, Arizona scored three runs or less twelve times. I don't care how good a pitching staff they trot out, it's tough to win with that kind of run support. Who's to blame? The youngsters went into a slump together. Young, Upton and Drew are hitting in the low 200's or worse with slugging percentages well below .400, and they're not doing much to get on base. Luckily for the Diamondbacks, the big lead the developed early and a simultaneous slump by the Dodgers may keep them in first until these players turn it around. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:28 PM
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Home Field Advantage
Permalink My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why the three teams with the best home winning percentages don't do so well on the road. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM
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June 03, 2008
Road Woes
Permalink Tracy Ringolsby looks at just how bad this road has been for Colorado: They need a win tonight or Wednesday afternoon to avoid going winless on the 10-game journey, which would wipe out the 0-7 trip to San Diego and San Francisco in 1999 that currently stands as the longest winless trip in franchise history. They've been sloppy in the field as well: Then there was an Atkins throwing error that led to a two-run Dodgers second, an offline throw that wound up an error by Willy Taveras in the fifth and a botched run down that allowed James Loney to scamper home from second before Blake DeWitt could be tagged out to end the seventh. The Rockies road ERA in 5.34, 15th in the NL. In 2007, they were 5th at 4.29. The two seasons Colorado made the playoffs, they posted good road ERAs. One would think that pitchers away from Coors would take advantage of the better conditions, but the Rockies history is one of equally poor pitching home and away. Their 2007 pitching success is starting to look like a fluke. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM
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Angels in Trouble
Permalink John Hickey notes the Mariners have the Angels right where they want them: A 4-2 loss to Los Angeles on Monday night dropped the Mariners 13 1/2 games out of first place in the American League West. At least such comebacks are possible. It helps to have a team playing well, however. The 1995 Mariners were about a .500 team when they started winning in late August. These Mariners need a 16 game win streak just to get to .500. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM
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June 02, 2008
The Best They Can Do?
Permalink The Mariners can claim that they haven't given up on this season all they want, but let's be honest, when you give Miguel Cairo five consecutive starts at first base, you're not trying to win anymore. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM
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May 30, 2008
The Three Run Win
Permalink The Giants completed a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday night. Randy Johnson out-pitched Barry Zito, The Big Unit leaving with a 3-2 lead after seven innings. San Francisco, however, scored a single run in the 8th on a bases loaded walk and then Winn homered in the ninth to seal the victory. Giants pitching dominated the series, allowing three runs in each game. That fact that the Giants won with that type of pitching performance is big news. Coming into the series, San Francisco was 1-4 in game in which they allowed exactly three runs. The Major League record when allowing three runs 155-86, a .643 winning percentage, so the Giants are returning to the mean as their offense picks up.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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May 28, 2008
Surprising White Sox
Permalink My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why the White Sox turned out to be such a surprise. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:37 PM
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A Little Fiestiness
Permalink Big League Stew details the soap-opera going on in the White Sox clubhouse. I find it a bit surprising on a first place team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM
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May 27, 2008
One Run Dodgers
Permalink For the fourteenth time this year, the Los Angeles Dodger were held to one run or less as they fall to the Cubs 3-1. That times them with Detroit and Kansas City for the most in the majors, although the Royals are being shutout through seven innings. This is the fourth time in the last five games the Dodgers offense failed to score more than one run. With that number of poor performances, it's impressive that the Dodgers are still in the race for the NL West. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM
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May 24, 2008
Interesting Komparison
Permalink Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM
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May 23, 2008
Jekyll and Hyde Pitching Staff
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds lost to the San Diego Padres Thursday night 8-2. It's another example of a very strange season for the Reds pitchers. Look at the home/road splits for the team:
Johnny Cueto at Dodger Stadium. Cueto is the poster child for the Reds home/road woes as he posts a 3.82 ERA at home, 7.99 on the road.
So what's going on? Could it be that visitors, knowing that Great American is a good place to hit homers, are swinging for the fences? This would account for the higher strikeout rate, and possibly fewer hits as fly balls fall into waiting outfield gloves. If the Reds were pitching on the road like they were at home, they'd be in contention in the NL Central. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM
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May 22, 2008
Can the Royals Win?
Permalink Part two of Someone Has to Win the AL Central is up at Waiting for Next Year. This one takes a look at the Kansas City Royals. It would help if they could take a game or two from Boston. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM
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May 21, 2008
Central Bragging
Permalink With the AL Central very tight, Waiting for Next Year asks team bloggers why their squad will win the division. The first entry is on the Tigers. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM
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May 20, 2008
Williamsville
Permalink The Braves defeated the Mets this afternoon 6-1 in the first game of their double header. Chipper Jones finished the game 1 for 4, dropping his average to a Ted Williams like .406. The Braves are tied with the Mets, 1 1/2 games behind the Marlins. A sweep of the double header and a Phillies loss puts Atlanta alone in second place. They are now 17-5 at home versus 6-16 on the road. They've outscored their opponents 128 to 74 at Turner Field. They've been outscored 90 to 83 away, but lost a large number of one run games on the road. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM
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Towers Lack of Power
Permalink Scott Miller notes that Kevin Towers is livid about the performance of the Padres. Of course, the blame may fall on his shoulders: A wicked combination of underachieving players and poor offseason personnel decisions following the best three-season stretch in club history has veteran players angry, coaches searching and the general manager downright livid. Add to that Jake Peavy going on the DL and it's turning into a real disaster. Miller also gets off the line of the story: They have the ultra-rare combination of no power AND no speed. Miller blames this on Moneyball, but it really came from the Padres doing a poor job of replacing their outfielders. They would not follow the market and overspend for quality and ended up with nothing. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 AM
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May 19, 2008
Improving Defense
Permalink Lone Star Ball offers some thoughts on how moving Hank Blalock to first is part of an organizational shift toward a better defensive team. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM
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May 18, 2008
Fish Fried
Permalink It was a bad week for the Florida Marlins. They suffer a sweep by the last place Reds, then lose two out of three to the Kansas City Royals. The offense hasn't been bad. They've scored six runs or more in four of the six games, but only won one of them. They've allowed 39 runs, however, going 1-5 on the week. They're still up 1/2 game in first place, however, pending the outcome of the Phillies game. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:43 PM
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May 15, 2008
Testing New Software
Permalink This is more for me to test something out, but if you don't mind fill out the following survey. Rate the teams in the American in the order you think they'll finish in the league as a whole. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 PM
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People Laughed When I Sat Down at the Piano...
Permalink Watch out for the Rays. People made all kinds of fun of me last year when I mentioned that would be a place to consider, luckily for them I didn't, but that's a good young team. Joe Maddon is one of the men responsible for my career and I think the world of the guy, and I think they've got immense amounts of young talent. Troy having a bit of a revival has certainly helped too. Great to see him back in the game and doing fantastic, couldn't happen to a nice guy. They're going to be good for a long time, and in a tough division, and from what I understand they've just tipped the iceberg on the wealth of young pitching talent they've got coming up. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM
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Rays for Real
Permalink So far this season, the Rays have played three teams that were considered competitive for playoffs coming into the season; the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. (I also thought the Mariners would be competitive, but that hasn't been the case.) Win the win today, the Rays split ten games with the Yankees, six games with the Red Sox, and swept three games from the Angels. They are hanging with the high payroll teams. Today they demonstrated great pitching, power offense, and very good glove work. Every day, they're looking less and less like a fluke. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 PM
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Three Seasons of the Tiger
Permalink With an 8-4 loss to the Royals this afternoon, the Tigers find themselves 16-25, six games out of first place in the AL Central. They also trail Kansas City by 3 1/2 games. Once again, the Tigers offense has disappeared:
Which team is for real? I'd like to think with that lineup the 6.9 runs per game is closer to reality, but right now the two slumps may be telling us something is seriously wrong with this offense. With another poor start, this time Kenny Rogers, the Tigers don't have the pitching staff to win with a low scoring offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:18 PM
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May 14, 2008
A Hard Look at the Mariners
Permalink Larry Stone says it's time for some introspection from the Mariners: It's not quite accurate to say no one saw this coming, the monumental debacle that has marked the first quarter of the M's season. I must admit that I too saw this team as pretty good. My feeling was that predictions of the hitters demise was being overstated, but that turned out to be wrong. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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May 13, 2008
Cubs Runs
Permalink The Cubs defeated the hapless Padres last night 12-3. That raises their runs per game average to 5.9. Chicago has a very strange run distribution for that average, however. Chicago is playing about two games under their Pythagorean estimate, and it's this concave distribution that may be the problem. They played 18 games where they've scored seven or more runs. They've played fourteen games, however, where they scored three or fewer runs. In other words, the area around five and six is nearly empty. The bell curve, if you will, is upside down. They've played 14 games that were tough to win, eighteen games that were easy to win, and only four games where you would expect the result to be competitive. The Cubs have yet to record a score of 4 or 5 runs this season. I suspect that with all the walks the team is drawing this season, they are susceptible to pitchers who stay in the strike zone. We'll see how this plays out over the season. I suspect by the end of the year we'll see a lot more games with the Cubs in the 4, 5, and 6 run range. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM
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May 12, 2008
Wrong Players
Permalink Halos Heaven blames the Angels losing streak on the wrong players suffering injuries. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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May 10, 2008
Powerful Fish
Permalink The Marlins are up 6-0 on the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning. So far tonight they've picked up six hits, three of them for extra bases. Florida came into the day sixth in batting average and ninth in OBA, but they're slugging .450, second in the league. They're not getting many men on base, but at least they're moving them around with extra base hits. Update: It's now 10-0 as Uggla hits a grand slam. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM
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Padres Criticism
Permalink Tim Sullivan in the Union-Tribune cuts the Padres management no slack: Jim Edmonds was not the problem. He was the symptom. He was the bridge too short, another in a series of stopgap question marks by a ballclub long lacking in home-grown answers. The Padres are a very strange organization. They put a lot of brain power in the front office, but they seem to find a long term plan. Are they a win now team? Are they a team that manages youngsters so good new talent is always coming into the system? They seem to be neither. Win now requires sometimes overpaying for talent. Managing youngsters means drafting well and trading well. As far as I can tell, the Padres do neither. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM
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May 09, 2008
Frustrated Mariners
Permalink Evan Grant does a good job of promoting the games next week between Seattle and Texas: A friendly community service reminder: The Rangers host Seattle for three games starting Monday. For those who can't land Stars tickets and want to see a fight, plenty of good seats are available in Arlington. Gabbard's leg is bruised, but the Rangers don't think the injury is serious. Sexson apologized for throwing his helmet at Gabbard, but I still think he should get a decent suspension out of the incident. The frustration that led to the fight is more than just the hit batters in the game. Look at how the Mariners are hitting in May. In eight games, they've been held to two runs or less seven times, scoring just fourteen runs in total. As a team, they are hitting below the Mendoza line. They're hitting .137 with men in scoring position. They've only had three plate appearances with a man on third and less than two out! Their team OPS is .525! Take away Ichrio, and the rest of the team approaches the level of a National League pitcher. It's a huge slump for a team that should really hit decently. What makes it worse is that they've been shutdown by New York and Texas, two teams that certainly had some pitching problems this season. Just to rub salt on the wound, they release Brad Wilkerson, who right now owns the highest OBA on the team. I'm not sure if the blame should go to the GM for putting the team together or the manger for not getting them to play up to their ability, but one of them should be on the hot seat right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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May 06, 2008
San Diego Speed
Permalink Tom Krasovic pens a good article on the lack of speed among the players on the Padres. Alderson points out they didn't have much speed last year, but with people getting on base, no one really noticed. Bill James in his 1980s Abstracts wrote that every strength covers a weakness. What's happened this season is the strength of getting on base disappeared, exposing the speed weakness. It's showing up on the base paths. The Padres made only nine stolen base attempts this season, fewest in the NL (they were successful seven times, however). The article leads you to believe it's showing up in the outfield, and while their Zone Rating is below average, they've made a good many plays out of the zone as well. When a team goes into an offensive funk, speed helps make the most out of the limited scoring opportunities presented, and helps the pitching staff keep the score low. San Diego is in that situation now, and they don't have the speed dimension to on which to fall back. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:21 PM
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The Oakland Offense
Permalink The Oakland Athletics rank fourth in the American League in runs per game with a 4.74 mark. Their 2-1 win over the Orioles last night, however, both demonstrates the strengths and glaring weakness of this team. They picked up eight hits, four walks, and no extra base hits. So for the game, their batting average was .222, their OBA .300, and their slugging percentage .222. For the season, the line is .253/.339/.362. It's a low hit, low power, high walk offense. They've draw 145 walks, most in the AL, thirteen more than the second place Tigers. This is the type of offense that's fairly easy to shut down, and you can see it in Garrett Olson's line. He went 6 1/3 innings, allowed four hits and just one walk and the Athletics picked up just one run. It was Johnson who walked three in 1 2/3 innings, issuing one to Frank Thomas in the tenth to put the winning run in scoring position. Put the ball over the plate, and the Athletics are a mediocre offense. Try to fool them off the plate, and they'll take those pitches and walk you to death. This is exactly the kind of team that loses in the playoffs. They go up against a team that throws strikes, and their high OBA is reduced to their low batting average. Unlike the Athletics teams of the late 1980s, this squad doesn't even have power to fall back on. Simply put, to beat Oakland, throw strikes. They can't hit them. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 AM
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May 05, 2008
Late Inning Woes
Permalink DuckSnorts looks at the Padres run differential by inning to see where the team goes wrong. They're doing very poorly in the late innings compared to last season. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM
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May 04, 2008
Here Come the Nats
Permalink The Washington Nationals defeated the Pirates 5-2 today and are now 9-3 over their last 12 games. They put fifteen batters on base today via a hit, walk or hit by pitch. If you look at the batters over this time, you'll see they're loading the bases with runners. Six of their regulars have OBAs over .350 in this stretch, although they're not hitting for a lot of power. Still if a team keeps pushing men on base, they come around to score eventually. They scored 70 runs in their first 20 games, 50 in the last 12. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM
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The Pierre Surge
Permalink The Dodgers defeated the Rockies12-7 Saturday night to win their eighth game in a row and nine of their last ten. The offense, which showed signs of greatness earlier, came alive completely over the last ten games:
They've almost doubled their runs per game compared to the earlier time period. Notice that the increase in runs comes from doing a much better job of getting on base with plenty of singles. The team OBA over the last ten games is higher than the team's slugging percentage over the first 20 games, but slugging percentage hasn't gone up all that much. Here are the Dodgers hitters before and after. The person who jumped the most is Juan Pierre.  25 April 2008: Dodgers #9 Juan Pierre during the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-7 win over the Colorado Rockies in 13 innings at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. Over the first 20 games he picked up eleven hits and one walk. Over the last ten (he's played seven) he's knocked out nine hits and drew five walks. With Andruw Jones the only Dodger not to take part in the offensive explosion, Pierre may be re-earning his place in centerfield. Note that Martin, Kemp, and Kent all improved in this time period as well, with Furcal, Ethier and DeWitt maintaining their good performances. That means even if Pierre returns to his norms, this team should keep scoring runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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May 03, 2008
Early Scores
Permalink The Yankees scored in the first inning today for the fourth straight game, taking a 1-0 lead on the Mariners. They've scored seven runs in those four first innings, five in the other 23 they've played. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM
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May 01, 2008
Half Dozen Dodgers
Permalink Los Angeles defeats Florida 5-3 as Furcal, Pierre and Kemp combine to manufacture a run with walk, sacrifice and single in the top of the ninth. That broke a tie, and two errors by the Marlins led to an insurance run. The Dodgers have won six in a row. They've scored 47 runs in that stretch, and twice they needed the runs as they've recorded wins of 8-7 and 7-6. The much maligned Pierre is sporting a .355 OBA after reaching three times today. It's amazing how having someone after your job makes you more productive. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM
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Great End to a Great Month
Permalink The Cubs closed April a blow out of the Brewers, 19-5. Toni Ginnetti recaps what made this one of their best starts ever. They cultivated an offense that leads the National League in hitting (.286) and ranked second in drawing walks. One of the players that is making the Cubs more selective at the plate is Geovany Soto. While he's averaging nearly a strikeout per game, he's also drawn 15 walks for a .427 OBA and his two home runs last night bring his total to five on the season and his slugging percentage to .621. The team will trade the strikeouts for that kind of selectivity and power any day. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM
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April 30, 2008
Catching the Ball
Permalink My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM
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April 29, 2008
Why the Dodger Drought?
Permalink Jon Weisman notes that some people cite the Los Angeles lifestyle for the reason the Dodgers don't win any more. I think it's because the Dodgers no longer burn out pitchers. The pitched Koufax and Drysdale as much as possible and they won, although both pitchers saw an early end to their careers. Don Sutton put up some big numbers in the early 1970s and the Dodgers won. Fernando Valenzuela? Orel Hershiser? Give Penny and Lowe 260 innings each, and I bet the Dodgers do very well. Leaving your best pitchers on the mound as long as possible is a great strategy for winning now, but it is very short term. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:47 PM
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April 26, 2008
Living in the Past
Permalink The Giants defeated the Reds Friday night 3-1 in a well pitched game by both Harang and Sanchez. The Giants are now 7-6 in games in which they score between 1 and 3 runs. That's a pretty remarkable number. The Giants are averaging 3.1 runs per game. Given that the average NL team averages 4.5 runs per game, you'd expect the Giants to post a winning percentage around .322. Instead, due to the terrific pitching performances they've received, they're 11-13, in second place in the NL West. They're the only team with a winning record when they score between 1 and 3 runs:
Note that the Padres, who also have a poor offense and a great pitching staff don't do very well in these games. For the Giants it's 1968 all over again. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM
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Jays Smoked
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays lost for the ninth time in eleven games last night, blowing a late, two-run lead. Scott Rolen, making a dramatic return from a finger injury that had sidelined him since spring training, delivered a two-run double in the top half of the eighth to put the Jays up 4-2 and seemingly in good shape to snap their four-game losing streak. The Jays are a bit dysfunctional this season. The bullpen's ERA is a very good 3.44, but they have a 1-6 record. That indicates bad timing. The offensive is a poor man's A's and Tigers from the early 1990s. Those teams didn't hit much for average, but drew a ton of walks and pounded the ball when they did make contact. The Blue Jays are drawing the walks, but their slugging percentage is a measly .369, twelfth in the AL. Maybe it wasn't the best time to let Frank Thomas go. I wonder how long Ricciardi lasts. He talks a good game, but of all the GMs to come out of the Alderson/Beane school, he's done the worst job of execution. With the Rogers increasing payroll in recent years, he no longer has the excuse of money. He should be on the hot seat. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM
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April 23, 2008
Δodgers House
Permalink Jon Weisman notes things are getting a bit wacky for the Dodgers. Look - I can put together more reasons not to worry about the marching band being stuck in a dead-end alley and the Dodgers tripping over the 10,000 marbles in the street, I really can, but you've probably heard enough of that from me for the past couple of weeks. These guys have been Faber College foulups without hardly any of the fun, and it's wearing most of them out, and it's wearing most of us out. I wonder if Torre has Andruw Jones on double secret probation? Update: That's supposed to be a delta in the title. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM
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April 22, 2008
Swinging Early
Permalink FishStripes notices the Marlins are feasting on first pitch strikes. It strikes me that this is something opponents should easily exploit. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 AM
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Cubs Taking
Permalink Gordon Wittenmyer notices the Cubs are more selective at the plate this season. With only a couple of additions to the lineup this April, the free-swinging, oft-missing Cubs, well, aren't anymore. I'll also note the Cubs have only grounded into ten double plays this year, so they're not taking runners off base, either. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM
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April 20, 2008
Pounding the Pirates
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their fifth game in a row, falling to the Chicago Cubs 13-6. That equaled the number of runs they scored in the previous four losses. They allowed thirteen runs for the second game in a row, and have been outscored in the five contests 48-12. The starters haven't given the team much of a chance as they've pitched 22 1/3 innings in the five games while allowing 27 runs, twenty five of them earned. They've only struck out ten while allowing 41 hits. At the moment, it's looking like the new management isn't making much of a difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 PM
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Giants Score
Permalink The Giants lifted their runs per game above 3.0 today with an 8-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. With 61 runs in 19 games, they'll keep that level even if they are shutout in their next contest. All nine Giants starters, including the pitcher picked up at least one hit. The win makes the Giants to 8-11, a bit of a moral victory as they move 1/2 game ahead of the Dodgers into fourth place. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:24 PM
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Praising the Opposition
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks made Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-New a believer: They are younger than the Padres, faster than the Padres, seemingly more talented than the Padres. Tom noted the difference between the outfields of the two teams: A key to San Diego's two defeats going into today's series finale is that Arizona's outfielders ran down balls that Padres outfielders such as Jim Edmonds and Paul McAnulty couldn't quite grab. It's a tough ballpark for pitchers. As a measure of that, consider the DBacks team ERA on the road is 1.94, and at home 3.75. Since 3.75 is a great number for a team over a season, it gives you an idea of just how good a pitching and defensive team Arizona assembled. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 AM
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April 19, 2008
Late Inning Lightning
Permalink The Red Sox rallied for three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning tonight to defeat the Rangers 5-3. The Red Sox are saving their best for last this season. From the eighth inning on, the Red Sox batters are 47 for 135, a .348 batting average. They've also picked up 15 extra-base hits, including six home runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM
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April 18, 2008
Cubs Getting On
Permalink The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon in a close game, 3-2. Despite the low score, the Cubs put eleven men on base via a hit or a walk. Although they only drew two base on balls this afternoon, they're doing very well in that category this season. With 64 walks in sixteen games the Cubs are averaging exactly four BB per contest. Last year they drew walks at a rate of 3.1 per game, and the previous two seasons (Dusty Baker) they were around 2.5! The last season a Cubs team averaged over four walks per game was in 1975. Coming into today, they posted a .266 BA, but with all the walks their OBA was an excellent .346. Fukudome with twelve gets a lot of credit, but Soto drew two today and now stands at nine. Two relative new comers are making a big difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM
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April 17, 2008
Happy Start
Permalink Brian Kamenetzky is very happy with the Angels start, given that both Lackey and Escobar are on the disabled list. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM
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April 16, 2008
Mental Mistakes
Permalink Richard Durrett lists the mental mistakes the Rangers made yesterday, and over the last few games. This is the type of play that reflects directly on the manager. Players go into slumps, players make a mistake from time-to-time, but when it all comes together like that it really looks like Washington doesn't have the team properly prepared. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM
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Shutting Down Colorado
Permalink Randy Wolf and the San Diego Padres shutout the Colorado Rockies Tuesday night 6-0. It was the eighth time this season Colorado was held to two runs or less, most in the majors:
In 2007, Colorado was held to two runs or less 39 times, or 6.5 times per month. They're not at the bottom of the runs per game list, but they're getting close. Outside of Holliday and Helton, we're not seeing the combined OBA and power from the Rockies evident last season. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 AM
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April 15, 2008
Scoring Machine
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks downed the Giants this afternoon 8-2. That raises their major league leading runs per game to 6.4. Last season, the pitching carried this team, but the youngsters on offense matured this year, and they are knocking the ball around the park. With Micah Owings doing another good job of demonstrating the irrelevance of spring training stats today, this team has a rotation to match their offense. In a league lacking a great team, they could run away in the race for best record in the league and home field advantage. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM
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April 14, 2008
The Lear Tigers
Permalink Bless You Boys wonders if the Tigers can get any worse. I'm always reminded of King Lear when I hear a question like that. Throughout that play just when you think things can't get any worse for Lear, they get worse. Right now, the offense is bad, the starting pitching is bad, and the relief pitching is bad. I suppose Guillen and Ordonez could both go down with injuries. While that may not make things worse, it would certainly make recovery from this start much more difficult. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 AM
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April 11, 2008
Heart Health
Permalink Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hit back-to-back home runs in the first to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead over the Phillies. The heart of the Chicago lineup, the 3-4-5 hitters are producing plenty of extra-base hits. They've knocked out eight home runs and eight doubles with the two dingers tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM
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April 10, 2008
Low Run Wins
Permalink The Giants have found a way to win. Don't allow runs! The team scored four runs in their last two games, about in line with their offensive rate all year. They've only allowed two, however. Last night, Jonathan Sanchez pitched six shutout innings against the Padres, and the bullpen kept it going until the hero of the previous night, Bengie Molina singled to start the ninth, then with two out, Ortmeier doubled in the pinch runner. So all the Giants need to do to win the NL West is keep their ERA around 1.00! Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM
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April 08, 2008
Significance?
Permalink The Tigers lose to the Red Sox 5-0. At 0-7, it's time to seriously reconsider the notion that the Tigers are a playoff caliber team. A 90 win team has a .555 winning percentage. The chance of a .555 team going 0-7 is .0035, or 0.35%. In other words, playoff teams tend not to lose seven games in a row. They're not barely over two runs per game, having scored 15 on the year. It's tough to blame this on the absence of Granderson, since Inge has hit well in his stead. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM
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April 07, 2008
Jays Joy
Permalink Despite issuing an excitement disclaimer, Jays Nest is very excited about the Toronto Blue Jays: The truth about this team is that they were hurt last year. They were hurt so bad that even a blind monkey could have mixed in with the other 8 players we had to use at third/ in the bottom of the pitching staff/in center field/ at shortstop (offensively, although I'd give the monkey at least a shot to make a few Johnny Macesque plays)/and catcher the previous season and no one would have noticed. It affected everything, from the hitting to the pressure on the pitchers, to the manager's ability to take chances and run...everything. I like this starting rotation a lot. My worry was the offense, with Wells tanking last year and the former Cardinals long in the tooth. So far, however, so good. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM
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April 03, 2008
Juggernaught
Permalink You can't stop the Washington Nationals, you can only hope to contain them. Jamie Moyer fails at containment, allowing five runs in the first inning. Guzman, Belliard and Flores all double in the inning, along with three singles and a walk as the Nationals bat around. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:23 PM
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March 31, 2008
The Tiger Path
Permalink Sam Mellinger looks at how the Tigers went from laughingstocks to champions and compares that path to the one taken by the Royals: It's funny, though. If you look at how the Tigers went from 119 losses to World Series contender, and squint your eyes a little while you're doing it, it might look like what the Royals are doing now. Moore and the Royals get to test their plan against the Tigers this afternoon. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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March 29, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Florida Marlins
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Florida Marlins. Their starters posted a 5.58 ERA in 2007, highest in Major League Baseball. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Andrew Miller
It's really sad when a team finishes last in a category and they do nothing to fix it. It's even worse when they degrade the rotation by insisting on starting pitchers like Hendrickson and Vander Hurk. Marlins fans can hope that Miller plays well in his first full season in the majors, but as for the rest of the rotation, the Maroone call to the bullpen will happen early and often. Without the ballpark adjustment, Miller is projected to allow less than one home run per nine innings. Playing in Miami, it should even be lower. I'd like to see his projected walks improve. It was excellent in the minors. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:49 PM
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March 28, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Texas Rangers
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Texas Rangers. Their starters posted a 5.50 ERA in 2007, highest in the American League. Their 838 innings represented the fewest pitched by a starting staff in the majors. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Kason Gabbard
This is just a bad rotation. When the one-two starters each project to ERAs well over 4.00, and only one of them has barely enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, there's going to be trouble. They can't go deep in games, which puts pressure on the bullpen. They get injured, so that brings in replacement starters, who tend to be not as good. Everything builds, and before you know it the whole staff is performing badly. The positive spin is that Gabbard, Mendoza and McCarthy might develop into good starters, and a healthy Jason Jennings can give the rotation some much needed innings. The rotation starts with such low expectations, there's nowhere to go but up! Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM
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March 27, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Tampa Bay Rays
Permalink John Perricone donated $50 or more and dedicates this post: Congratulations for supporting David's efforts to run the very best baseball site there is. He is, of course, my blogfather, and one of my biggest and earliest supporters. Please continue to drive towards a big pledge month, and of course, please visit David's blogson, Only Baseball Matters. The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. Their starters posted a 5.20 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart, sort of. I'm assuming here that Kazmir will be back soon and Hammel is better than Jackson. 
James Shields
For a more optimistic look at the Rays rotation (using PECOTA) see my latest SportingNews.com column. Something that Marcels don't pick up that PECOTA captures is fielding. The Rays swapped out one of the worst fielding shortstops of 2007 for one of the best. That should make a big positive difference in the team's ERA. My guess is that Garza and Sonnanstine are going to pitch closer to 160 innings, and eventually they'll replace Jackson with Hammel. Fans are likely to be impressed with the improvement of the team's ERA this year, partially from their pitchers maturing, and partially from the defense playing much better. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM
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Rotating the AL East
Permalink My lastest column at SportingNews.com looks at which team projects to have the best rotation in the AL East this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM
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Giants Spin
Permalink With Barry Bonds now a non-person, the Giants makes promises they can't keep: "With Barry Bonds gone," Magowan said, addressing the media throng, "this is clearly the beginning of a new era for the Giants." If you really want a youthful team, you do what Cleveland and Florida did. Trade or release all the veterans and put young players on the field. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||