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March 16, 2009
Team Offense, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Chris Young The series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the DBacks 2008 numbers. The results:
The Diamondbacks scored 4.44 runs per game in 2008. I almost get the feeling Ralph Houk is managing this team. Ralph liked to lead off with his second baseman, no matter how high or low or player's OBA. Felipe Lopez only fits the role of a leadoff man in that he has no power. Melvin compounds the mistake with Chris Young batting second. He projects to post the lowest OBA on the team. Given this poor top of the order, I'm not surprised the probable lineup ranks halfway between the best and worst lineups the Diamondbacks might assemble. The saving grace of the team is their power. While they don't have an outstanding slugger, seven of the players project to good slugging percentages. What they lose in failing to get on base they make up somewhat in moving the batters who do get on around the bases. Plus, there's a good chance that Marcels underestimate some of these hitters due to their youth. Upton, Drew and Young are all on up slope of their careers. Unless Eric Byrnes returns, none of the starting eight will have a seasonal age of 30 in 2009. With everyone either in or approaching their prime, the offense just might catch lightning in a bottle, much like the Rockies did two years ago. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Diamondbacks opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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March 14, 2009
Team Offense, Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pirates have not reached .500 since Barry Bonds departed for free agency. The series on team offense continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Pirates 2008 numbers. The results:
The Pirates scored 4.54 runs per game in 2008. I find two things sad about this Pirates lineup. The first is that the spread between the best and worst lineups is small for an NL team, about 0.5 runs. The second is that even their best lineup is not predicted to score as much as the team did last year. Given the low prediction of runs per game, the lack of spread between the best and worst lineups shows that the team just doesn't possess much offensive talent. Pittsburgh has no power outside of the heart of the order, and none of their 3-4-5 hitters are projected to slug over .500. The top OBA on the team comes in at .346, which wouldn't make a good leadoff man on most teams. The team is going to make a lot of outs, and they can't fall back on power to make up for some of that. Unless the pitching is fantastic, the Pirates are headed for another losing season. Call it the curse of Barry Bonds. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Pirates opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 PM
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Team Offense, Colorado Rockies
Permalink 
Brad Hawpe The series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Rockies 2008 numbers. The results:
The Rockies scored 4.61 runs per game in 2008. The Rockies project to be a team that does a great job of getting on base. Of the eight position players, only Clint Barmes to have an OBA below .350. If Atkins and Helton stay healthy, I wonder if the Rockies will play Ian Stewart more at second base? That would give them eight hitters all way above the NL average in OBA. I agree with the Lineup Analysis Tool that Hawpe and Ianetta should be batting higher. If Brad comes anywhere near that OBA, the Rockies are losing a lot of times on base batting him fifth. I'd simply move Brad to fourth and Chris to fifth and let Atkins clean them up with his power. Barmes or not at second base, the Rockies should put a ton of runners on. The smallest amount of luck with runners in scoring position is going to lead to a big scoring year for Colorado. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Rockies opening day tickets (hosting the world champion Phillies). Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM
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March 13, 2009
Team Offense, Milwaukee Brewers
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Ryan Braun bats with Prince Fielder on deck. The series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Brewers 2008 numbers. The results:
The Brewers scored 4.63 runs per game in 2008. There's a huge gap between the best and worst lineups the Brewers can put on the field. That usually signifies a large spread of talent in the batting order. For teams like this, it really does matter how the manager constructs his lineup. The only thing I might change here is switching Braun and Fielder, getting Prince's better OBA in front of Braun's power. However, the switch only results in 0.03 more runs per game, or about five runs over the season. That's half a win, and in a close division or wild card race it might make a difference. There really isn't much OBA from the fifth slot down. Pitchers should have it pretty easy once they get through he heart of the lineup. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Brewers opening day tickets (hosting the Cubs). Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM
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March 12, 2009
Team Offense, Atlanta Braves
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Chipper Jones The series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Braves 2008 numbers. The results:
The Braves scored 4.65 runs per game in 2008. I really don't like the way the middle of this lineup is put together. With McCann and Kotchman on the team, Cox projects to bat the fading Garret Anderson fourth. The Lineup Tool gets this right, batting both Anderson and Francoeur near the end of the offense. The probable lineup puts McCann in a very bad spot, with a poor hitter in front of him to limit RBI opportunities, and a poor hitter behind him to limit run scoring opportunities. To me, Jones, Kotchman, McCann gives the Braves a better heart of the order and raises the probability of getting three straight hits/on-base in the heart of the order. That would score more from the top and set up the bottom for RBI. I like the Marcel projection for Chipper. What would Braves fans rather have, a year where he threatens .400 but only plays 128 games or the Marcel projection and Chipper on the field for a full season? Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Braves opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM
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Team Offense, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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Bobby Abreu The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Angels scored 4.72 runs per game in 2008. If Mike Napoli hits like Marcel projects, he'll be hitting much higher in the lineup by the middle of the season. The Angels lineup starts great, building OBA and power through the first third of the order. With his decreasing power, I like Bobby Abreu in the two hole. The middle third is just an out machine. True, the batters there can do some damage with the long ball, but there's no reason to pitch around anyone there, since they'll probably chase outside pitches anyway. Once again, for the majority of this lineup, putting the ball in play hard will be the key to success. That will help them score enough runs to win with a good pitching staff. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Angels opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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March 11, 2009
Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays
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Dioner Navarro The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Rays scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008. I don't like Carl Crawford in the two hole, and neither does the Lineup Analysis Tool. However, given that this lineup is very close to the runs scored by the ideal lineup, I can't complain too much. This is a good offensive team, although I'd like to see players like Burrell bat higher so he gets more opportunities to get on base. One nice thing is that Upton, Longoria and Navarro are still in the growth phase of their careers. If I had to pick one player to exceed his Marcel projections, it would be Dioner Navarro. He's pulled down by his previous seasons where various personal problems and injuries pulled down his stats. I suspect he'll be closer to his 2008 numbers than his career norms. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Rays opening day tickets (versus the Yankees). Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM
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March 10, 2009
Team Offense, Florida Marlins
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Hanley Ramirez
The Marlins scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008. Fredi Gonzalez and the Lineup Analysis Tool's best order both have a stretch of the lineup that goes McPherson-Pitchers-Maybin-Baker-Ramirez. Fredi's starts in the 8th slot, but the program starts it one batter sooner. That puts the hitters with the best OBAs 1-2 in the order, and Hanley's power still gets to pickup Maybin when the lineup circles to the top. It's nearly a .25 run difference, or 40 runs over a full season. That might be enough to get me to try batting the pitcher 8th. I like this lineup, as everyone, except may McPherson either gets on base or hits for power. There's no truly bad hitter in this lineup. If their young pitchers stay healthy, this might turn out to be a very good team. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Marlins opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 PM
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Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals
Permalink 
Kahlil Greene The series on team offense continues with the ST. Louis Cardinals. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the team's 2008 numbers. The results:
The Cardinals scored 4.81 runs per game in 2008. This is pretty cool. The bottom four of La Russa's lineup match the bottom four of the best lineup calculated by the Lineup Analysis Tool. La Russa might do better batting Albert Pujols in the leadoff spot, but there's no way Albert would do that. Still, but splitting the batters correctly top five vs. bottom four, this lineup comes very close to the optimum. The wild card in the Cardinals order looks like Khalil Greene. His numbers are projected to be very low, but the move out of PETCO could really help his power. PECOTA has him at .311/.429. That would bring the probable lineup to 5.1 runs per game. An even better year from Greene takes some pressure off the Cardinals pitchers. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Cardinals opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:56 PM
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March 09, 2009
Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Orioles scored 4.86 runs per game in 2008. The Orioles may hold the record for actual lineup closest to the ideal lineup in terms of run production. If you look at the Lineup Analysis link above, the bottom lineup in the top 20 matches the Orioles lineup in five spots. One change that makes sense is moving Luke Scott ahead of Adam Jones. Jones, However, is still young, so I can believe he might exceed this projection, and that would certainly give the Orioles a boost. Like last season, this is a good offensive team. The bottom of the lineup isn't great, but they do have enough near the top put some runs on the board. They need to find pitching in order to compete. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Orioles opening day tickets (hosting the Yankees). Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM
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Team Offense, New York Yankees
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Yankees scored 4.87 runs per game in 2008. Brett Gardner is having a better spring than Melky Cabrera, but Melky projects slightly better for the regular season so substituting Gardner into the lineup makes little difference. We do want to see what happens with Cody Ransom, however, since A-Rod will miss the start of 2009. Ransom's projection is pretty good, .351 OBA, .450 slugging. Most teams would be happy to get that from a third baseman. The Yankees best lineup drops to 5.52 runs per game with Cody, and with him batting sixth it would be 5.44. So the Yankees would drop 0.2 runs per game with Ransom instead of Rodriguez, but they would still score a high number of runs per game. The real danger to the Yankees, however, is that Rodriguez is the start of the injuries, not the end. Damon, Jeter, Posada and Matsui are all older players projected to put up good stats. Injuries to any or all will put the Yankees closer to their 2008 level. Swisher gives them a little depth in the outfield, so they could probably handle one outfielder and one infielder out at the same time. So this is a high scoring team if they can stay healthy. With a likely improved pitching staff, anything above five runs per game should put them in an excellent position to make the playoffs. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Yankees opening day tickets (new stadium debut). Also, season ticket packages are available, as well as tickets to the exhibition opener of the new stadium. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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March 08, 2009
Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
The Phillies scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008, the same number as the Mets. These numbers all come in a little bit behind the Mets. I took a look at the lineup with Burrell in left instead of Ibanez, and the team scores about 0.11 runs per game more, or close to 18 more runs over the season. That's about two wins. Over the last four years FanGraphs, actually rates Burrell as a better left fielder than Ibanez. Given how close the division played the last two seasons, two wins is a lot for the Phillies to give up. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Phillies opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:41 PM
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March 06, 2009
Team Offense, New York Mets
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
The Mets scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008. Looking at this probable lineup I was surprised to see Delgado splitting Wright and Beltran. In general, putting two high OBA, high power hitters together is a good thing. Delgado is that hitter when he's at his best, but he's getting old and had his ups and downs the last couple of years. Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing Beltran and Reyes flip the 1-5 spots. Daniel Murphy projects to do well, and if he lives up to the .371 OBA the Mets should have a very good pair of table setters. My feeling is Marcel underestimates Reyes a bit, since he came up at a young age and posted a poor OBA for a while. The bottom of the lineup is very weak. That should give opposing pitchers a break, and it's the big reason the Mets project to score fewer runs than last season. They were even with the Phillies in runs scored in 2009 so the division title came down to pitching. With this lineup, the Mets will need to depend more heavily on fixing the pitching to win in 2009. Other teams in this series:
Correction: Fixed the value of the Mets regressed lineup. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Mets opening day tickets (Citi Field debut). Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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March 05, 2009
Team Offense, Cleveland Indians
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Indians. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Indians scored 4.97 runs per game in 2008. The Indians are another team strong from top to bottom. There's very little difference between the best and worst lineups Eric Wedge can put on the field. If Hafner, Choo and Cabrera live up to their projections, the Indians will wind up with a very strong offense in 2009. I suspect we'll see a big bounce back from Cleveland this year. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Indians opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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Team Offense, Chicago White Sox
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The White Sox scored 4.98 runs per game in 2008. Most managers devise a lineup that may not be mathematically optimal, but is close and makes sense in the traditions of baseball. The lineup analysis tool tends to put high OBA power hitters at the top of the order with a leadoff type hitter batting ninth. Here, however, Guillen's 1-2 hitters get lowered to 8-9 using the tool, suggesting Ozzie has his top and bottom a bit backward. You'll also notice that Pierzynski bats second in most of the worst lineups. Owens bats ninth, which is not a knock against him (second leadoff man), and Ownes-Getz at the top of the order gives the power in the middle more to drive in. If and when Getz proves himself able to get on base, I suspect there will be a flip in the lineup. The power in the middle is impressive. Quentin and Thome serve the dual role of driving in the few runners they'll see in front of them and setting the table for the power behind. Dye and Konerko should each drive in 100 runs even if they don't hit that well, since Q&T should provide them numerous opportunities. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy White Sox opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM
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March 04, 2009
Team Offense, Detroit Tigers
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Tigers scored 5.07 runs per game in 2008. Last season, the Tigers posted a lineup that looked like it could score close to six runs per game. They actually ended up ranked fifth in the majors in runs per game, but they didn't exactly blast people out of the park. This season, they still put up an impressive 1-6, but they've traded more power at the bottom of the order for more defense behind their pitchers. If that defense can bring down the Tigers runs allowed by 1/2 a run they should at least post a winning record. This is a lineup, however, easily decimated by injuries. Ordonez, Sheffield and Guillen are all up in age, and Ordonez and Guillen are important cogs in this offense. I also wonder if Granderson comes near his projected numbers if he won't start batting lower in the order. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Tigers opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM
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Team Offense, Minnesota Twins
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Twins scored 5.09 runs per game in 2008. The probable lineup is very close to the optimum. The first four batters are only shifted by moving Mauer and hits great OBA into the leadoff spot. The Twins manage to concentrate a good deal of offense into their first five slots. Crede, with his power, is good at finishing a rally, making the seven slot perfect for him. I'm very excited to see Dernard Span. It's tough to find a great leadoff hitter anymore. Teams seem very content with putting someone with a .350 to .360 OBA in the slot. Span projects to .380, and might do better. Should the Twins develop a fan club that sits in the outfield with Viking helmets singing, "Span, Span Span, Span, Span, Span, Span, Span!" whenever Denard takes his position or comes to bat? This is a good Twins offense. If runs scoring continues to be down this year, they'll once again do well in the rankings. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Twins opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM
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March 03, 2009
Team Offense, Boston Red Sox
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Red Sox scored 5.22 runs per game in 2008. One marvels at the ability of the Red Sox front office to assemble such a group of selective hitters who also hit for power. The only weak spot in the lineup is Varitek, and if he posts a .325 OBA I bet the front office will be extremely happy. As you can see by the very small difference between the best and worst lineups, it's tough for Terry Francona to go wrong making out the card. I'd love to see Terry try lineup number three some time, starting Drew, Ortiz, Youkilis and Bay 1-4. There are two main worries with this lineup. The first is age and injury. There's a reason the Red Sox wanted Mark Teixeira, they're not sure how Mike Lowell will hold up. J.D. Drew's back is already acting up, and David Ortiz is coming off a wrist injury. The other concern would be with their youngsters, Ellsbury and Lowrie. Jed is still an unknown at the major league level. Ellsbury's offense fell off quite a bit from June through August last year, although he appeared to get his groove back in September. With only 670 at bats under his belt, we're still not sure where Ellsbury will wind up. Even with those concerns, the Red Sox are still a deep team, and even with an injury or two I expect them to be near the league lead in runs scored. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Red Sox opening day tickets. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM
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Team Offense, Chicago Cubs
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I use the team's averages from 2008. The results:
The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008. The Cubs probable lineup is upside down. The five through eight hitters own better OBAs than the one through four hitters. While the Lineup Tool puts Bradley and Lee at the top of the order, if I were making out a more traditional lineup I'd put Theriot and Fontenot one and two, with Soriano's power bring up the rear of the middle of the order. Might it be possible that the Cubs score more runs in the second inning than the first this year? Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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March 02, 2009
Team Offense, Texas Rangers
Permalink I delayed my team offense reports this season as I waited for the free agent market to shake out. With Orlando Cabrera signing today, we're a little closer to completion, and the start of the regular season is only a month away. I'll cover the teams based on their 2008 finish in runs scored, starting with the Texas Rangers. I use the probable lineup published at CBSSportsline, and plug OBA and slugging percentage from the Marcel the Monkey projections into the Lineup Analysis Tool. In addition to posting runs per game for the best, probable and worst lineups, I'll also post the regressed value of the probable lineup. In general, teams do not keep the probable lineup on the field the whole season, and this formula should help adjust for that. Here are the results (Elvis Andrus's projection is from Baseball Prospectus.):
There's really not much for Ron Washington to do with this lineup. Texas projects to play eight hitters with good but not outstanding OBAs. It's a team that might lead the league in OBA, not because anyone is outstanding, but only Andrus is below average. Still, that's a big falloff from 2008. The projections show a huge drop in OBA from the fourth slot and in the ninth slot. Andrus's glove better be as good as the Rangers hope, since he'll need to save a ton of runs to make up for his lack of batting prowess. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM
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Royals Hope
Permalink Sam Mellinger likes the Royals now that they've signed Juan Cruz: Greinke is just one reason Royals fans feel like they can dream a little. The division is weak. Cleveland lost CC Sabathia and his dots. Detroit looks lost. The White Sox are a year older. This is the spot where I'm supposed to say something bad about the Twins, so let's just move on. Pitching can take a team a long way. We'll see if the depth is really there once the season starts. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM
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February 23, 2009
The Veteran factor
Permalink Baseball Crank takes a look at the Yankees history in the free agent era signing or trading for established veteran pitchers. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM
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February 13, 2009
Gloating
Permalink A Giants fan enjoys the finanical problems the Dodgers suffered moving to Arizona. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM
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February 10, 2009
Rand on Runs
Permalink Michael Rand examines the Baseball Prospectus data and decides the Twins need more offense. There are plenty of good bats available. Now would be a good time for the Pohlads to stimulate the team with an infusion of cash. You're not going to get a better bargain on players like Abreu, Dunn and Ramirez. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:28 PM
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February 09, 2009
Indians Left Field
Permalink This article at MLB.com talks about the Indians contingency plans if Ben Francisco doesn't work out. There's no real reason to think he will. His minor league numbers are okay, but not great, and he's coming to the majors old. The Indians own the second longest championship drought in the majors. Given this year's free agent market, why not do the obvious and hire Manny Ramirez short term? Offer him two years, $50 million and see what happens. That's one town where the fans shouldn't be waiting for another rebuild. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 AM
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Championship Core
Permalink Phil Sheridan writes on the meaning of the Ryan Howard signing: With this deal, the Phillies now have the core of their World Series-winning team locked up long enough to make a run at another championship or two. Howard and Cole Hamels agreed to deals this winter. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins aren't going anywhere. The trick now is to surround that core with good role players. We'll see over the next few years if Amaro can do better than Raul Ibanez. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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February 05, 2009
Middle Move
Permalink Driveline Mechanics looks at how moving Derek Jeter to centerfield and signing Orlando Cabrera to play shortstop would increase the Yankees wins in the 2009 season. Of course, such a move is extremely unlikely to happen. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM
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Complement or Insult?
Permalink Russell Martin likes the Dodgers playoff chances with or without Manny Ramirez: "Whether we have him or not, I think our team has got a good core and he just complements the rest of the guys," Martin said Wednesday during a team visit to Children's Hospital Los Angeles. Manny, however, is a much bigger complement than Juan Pierre. I'd say playing Juan is more like adding insult to injury. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM
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January 31, 2009
Scoring and Preventing
Permalink River Ave. Blues posts an interesting graph showing the ups and downs of the Yankees offense and pitching in 2008. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 PM
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January 26, 2009
What's the Difference?
Permalink Why I love Rob Neyer. On Joe Torre's reign with the Yankees: Beginning in 1996, the Yankees won four World Series in five years. In those five years, they averaged 97 wins. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM
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January 20, 2009
Cost Analysis
Permalink Sky Kalkman improves on evaluating the cost of a marginal win by comparing expected number of wins based on payroll with the actual number of wins earned. In other words, if you spend more, you're expected to win more. The Angels score very well in this analysis, although the Rays remain head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:13 PM
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January 13, 2009
Milwaukee Pitching
Permalink Bernie's Crew analyzes the Brewers starting pitching as it stands now. He comes away hopeful. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM
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January 07, 2009
Strong at the Wrong Position
Permalink Bill Center starts a series on the Padres by position at first base. The title says it all, "At one position, at least - first base - the Padres organization is flush." Let's face it, that's not a position where a team wants to be deep in their organization. The Diamondbacks were busy making themselves deep at shortstop, and were able to turn one of those into an outfielder. If you have a log jam at shortstop, you can move the player to another position, or trade for some value. If a player is stuck behind a good first baseman, there isn't much room to maneuver. Sure, the Padres can trade one of them away, but it looks like there's not much of a market for first basemen right now. This is a surprising organizational mistake by a group of pretty smart baseball people. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM
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December 29, 2008
More Defense
Permalink Another Red Sox fan defends the Yankees. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM
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December 28, 2008
Losing to Win
Permalink Squawking Baseball looks at the how the Pirates are usings losing to win in the future. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:17 PM
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You Can Buy Championships
Permalink Alex Belth dispels the idea that you can't buy championships: But facts are facts: since the start of free agency in 1977, no team has spent more money on players than the Yankees have; no team has won more pennants or more championships. So while no team can ever fool themselves that they can pre-arrange success (as George Steinbrenner was accused of believing in the Eighties), the Yankees aggressiveness in the free agency market hasn't always back fired either. I would also argue that the 1977 Yankees Championship was bought with Reggie Jackson. The 1997 Marlins certainly bought a champion (compare to the Indians who developed the team and signed players to long term contracts). The 2001 Diamondbacks wasn't exactly home grown. I'm sure my readers can think of others. There are many ways of building a champion, and buying a team works just as well as anything else. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 AM
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December 27, 2008
Defending Spending
Permalink Red Sox fan Daniel Drezner defends the Yankees spending: First, it would be awesome if American corporations acted more like the Yankees. One cause of the deepening recession is that firms are afraid to do anything other than hold cash in hand at the moment. The smart ones should invest in expansion -- capital is ridiculously cheap right now and they'll be well-poised once the economy takes off again. If enough firms acted that way, the economy actually would take off again. The Yankees are like Mr. Potter from It's a Wonderful Life. He was buying up bank shares cheap during the depression, but he was also supplying liquidity. The Yankees are doing the same, as their luxury tax and revenue sharing bills help keep other teams competitive. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM
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December 23, 2008
Fun in the Sun
Permalink R.J. Anderson notes that the Padres should be fun to watch in 2009: Imagine you were just crowned General Manager of a replacement level team that won 50 games last season. There's very little you could do that would be worse, and the team is so cheap that getting rid of the broken parts isn't too worrisome on a cash-strapped owner's checkbook. The Pads aren't quite that bad off, but that doesn't mean they can't take some chances that in previous years were off limits. In short, the Padres are a sabermetrician's dream laboratory! Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 AM
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December 18, 2008
Marginal Marlins
Permalink Beyond the Boxscore provides a table of the cost of a marginal win for each team. The post makes a very good case that if the Marlins increase their pay roll by $30 million, they likely make the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM
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December 17, 2008
Quote of the Day
Permalink Craig Calcaterra talks about the age of the Yankees potential starting lineup: That's not a baseball team. That's the cast of "The Big Chill," with Cano playing the Meg Tilly character. I always preferred Jennifer Tilly myself. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM
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December 14, 2008
Younger and Cheaper
Permalink Buster Olney writes that despite the spending spree, the Yankees are going to be younger and cheaper than in 2008. On top of that, none of these moves cost them any prospects from their system. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM
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December 12, 2008
San Diego Summary
Permalink Geoff Young sums up the current situation of the San Diego Padres. First, some praise for Kevin Towers: Jake Peavy isn't going to the Cubs... for now. And just when I was starting to like the names being mentioned. Did you notice how the rumored packages went from being awful, to decent, to pretty good? At the very least, Kevin Towers deserves credit for not jumping on any old deal, like some folks seemed to assume he would. Then he addresses all the problems caused by the lack of a trade. Down in the article, however, he makes a big mistake: Meanwhile, the ownership situation continues to be murkier than Mission Bay after a heavy rain. I keep telling myself that I should be upset by all of this, but instead I just find it fascinating. Like, how much worse can the situation get? And the answer is none. None more worse. He needs to re-read King Lear, especially given the heavy rain reference. All through Lear, just when you think the situation can't get any worse, it does. The Padres are in real trouble now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM
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December 05, 2008
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
Permalink Peter Abraham discusses why the Yankees should concentrate on pitching. It's based on presentations by students of Vince Gennaro, a wise business analyst. I don't necessarily buy it. Teams that are extreme at one end of the offense/defense scale only need to be okay at the other to make the playoffs. The years the Red Sox won in the late 1980s early 1990s, they posted the best offense in the AL with a team ERA in the middle of the league. Is it really that difficult to trot out a rotation with a 4.50 ERA? If a team scores 6 runs per game and allows 4.7 runs per game, that should work out to around 100 wins. If New York signs Mark and Manny, brings Pettitte back, and gets Hughes and Kennedy to post ERAs under 5.00, I think it's a pretty good team. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:37 PM
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November 07, 2008
Yankees Tidbits
Permalink Peter Abraham reports from Joe Torre's charity event: Joe Girardi revealed for the first time that Mike Mussina told him after the season that he planned to retire. He has not heard from Moose since. There's also news on Andy Pettitte's plans and the rehabbing shoulders of Rivera and Posada. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM
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November 03, 2008
Process and Talent
Permalink 
Mark Ellis  , the A's encouraged good process at the plate. They'd praise a player who struck out looking on an outside pitch, but have words with someone who swung at a ball, even if it resulted in a good outcome.
This resulted in 2008 with a number of players on the team who can draw a walk, but don't hit:
All of these players show good process at the plate, as indicated by earning a much higher OBA than batting average. They're good at not swinging at bad pitches. The problem is that they're bad swinging at good pitches. The whole point of developing good selectivity, good process, is to get the batters better pitches to hit, so they can smack the ball around. If a team's hitters don't have the talent to execute on good pitches, then why have them on the team? Jack Cust is a good hitter, in the mold of Rob Deer, Ken Phelps and Adam Dunn. None of these, players however, should be the best hitter on a team. If you think about the greatest hitters of all time, or even today, they hit for average in addition to getting on base and hitting for power. They possess talent to go with their great selectivity at the plate. The Athletics will claim they can't afford those players. Fine, they're not going to sign Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez to a big contract. Oakland, however, is not developing those players, either. The players they bring along have the process, but not the talent that makes the process effective. Until they find batters who can turn good pitches into hits, they are going to continue to wallow in walks that fill but fail to drain the bases. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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October 31, 2008
A Dash of Bitters
Permalink The Soxaholix is just a little bit bitter about the Red Sox losing to the Rays. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 AM
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October 24, 2008
Winning at the Margins
Permalink The Biz of Baseball looks at the cost of a marginal win per team. Only the two Florida teams paid less than $1 million per marginal win. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:13 PM
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October 10, 2008
Enough Curses
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue is done with curses: It doesn't help matters any when the chairman of the team -- and don't get me wrong, I happen to like Crane Kenney and what he's done for this team in the last two years -- hires a priest to spray holy water in the dugout before the first game of the NLDS, just after Lou Piniella had carefully spent the entire season getting his team to concentrate on nothing but baseball. Right. There are no curses. It's just been a run of bad luck. The people now running the Cubs appear to know how to put together a winning team. It's just a matter of time until that strategy pays off. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM
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October 09, 2008
More Staff
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue notes the Chicago National League franchise employees fewer front office staff full time than most clubs in the majors. He's hoping the new owner catches up with the rest of the league. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:24 PM
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October 08, 2008
A Little Regression
Permalink Tangotiger presents a nice data chart showing how in three years the bad teams will likely be better and the good teams will likely be worse. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM
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October 06, 2008
Futility Players
Permalink A shrine to the Cubs futility is growing a Wrigley Field. I like this message: "Dear Cubs 2008, It really hurts knowing I'll never see you again. We had some great times." They're lovable losers no more. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM
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October 05, 2008
Quote of the Day
Permalink TNT interrupted Titanic to show the start of the Red Sox game. Metstradamus wonders: If TNT had interrupted Titanic with a regular season Mets game, would anyone have known the difference? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM
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Lovable No More
Permalink The Cubs choked. This wasn't a typical Cubs bizarre defeat. There was no unprecedented come back, no fan knocking the ball away. It wasn't even a hard fought set of games in which luck just went the other way. The Cubs simply stunk in a series in which they should have dominated. The Dodgers out-walked the Cubs 14-6. During the regular season, the Cubs drew 636 walks, the most in the NL, while the Dodgers took just 543. good for tenth. I was fairly unconvinced about the Cubs early in the season, but their walk rate turned me around. This was a selective team that worked the counts and was willing to lay off pitches they couldn't hit. That put them on base more, and had the side effect of improving their hitting as well. Getting better pitches, their BA went up seven points versus 2007, and their slugging percentage rose 21 points. Chicago did everything well on offense. Then, for three games, they threw the playbook out the window. They flailed at first pitches and reached for balls in the dirt. Instead of working the count, they let the count work them. Even during the regular season, the when the Cubs hit poorly against the Dodgers, they still drew three walks a game. The pitching also kept them in those regular season games, in which the Dodgers hit even worse. Los Angeles changed, however. Not only did the Dodgers add Manny's big bat, but they finally decide to play the youngsters. Kent, and Pierre barely touched a bat in the series, while Jones and Garciaparra were not seen at all. This was a better hitting team. Still, the Cubs put three aces on the hill against them! Dempster and Harden were lights on. Zambrano was hurt more by his defense than his own pitching, but didn't exactly shut down the Dodgers either. Everyone on that team was hittable. So the best squad in the National League, maybe the best team in baseball doesn't hit well, doesn't pitch well, doesn't field well and gets swept by a Los Angeles team that barely finished over .500. What is so lovable about these losers? There are no excuses this time:
Will people still swarm to Wrigley to watch this team? The Cub Reporter: You follow a baseball team for six months, 161 games, and just about every play of every inning and then they go and just tear your heart out. The one time you really needed them, the one thing you ever wanted out of this relationship and they can't even be bothered to show up. For six months they were the best girlfriend a guy could imagine - not only did you have that special spark with them, but they had all the fundamentals as well. They were the kind of girl that you needed more than she needed you, but still would bring you lasagna at work...just because it was a Wednesday. Eventually, I will post a recap of this utter disaster, but it may take me a day or so. Until then, I want this post to stand alone on the front page as a monument to the worst performance I have seen in 45 years as a Cubs fan. Exactly. There was nothing redeeming about this loss, no wait until next year moment. On the 100th anniversary of their last championship, the Cubs teased their fans with greatness, only to go down without a fight. This was Foreman-Frazier, except the Cubs got knocked down just three times. No gimicks can erase this series. The only good thing that might come out of this loss is a conviction that Alfonso Soriano should not bat leadoff. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM
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October 03, 2008
Marlins Want to be the '82 Yankees
Permalink I can't believe I'm reading this: For a sweet change, this won't be the kind of shake-up that has twice before followed Marlins success -- a fire sale to drastically cut player payroll. That is the one benefit of being last in the majors in payroll: Tough to drastically cut what barely exists. Don't these people read old Bill James Abstracts? From page 96 of the 1983 edition, in regards to the Yankees signing Dave Collins the previous off season: In the ledger of bad ideas of historical magnitude, enter now the name of George Steinbrenner, cited for his 1981 argument that the era of the home run was over, and that the Yankees were to become a slashing, speed-based team in tune with the 1980s. The chance that this might work was roughly equal to the chance that Ronald Reagan might marry Joan Baez. ... The article goes on to show the average finish of teams who led the league in certain offensive stats. Teams that led in runs scored had the highest average finish, followed by triples, Slugging Pct, home runs, doubles, batting average, walks and stolen bases. James then looked at the average place of the teams that finished last in those categories and took the difference. The two most important stats were runs scored and slugging percentage. Last was stolen bases. So the Marlins are going to trade power for speed? Good luck with that. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM
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October 02, 2008
Time to Take Charge
Permalink Metstradamus makes a good point about Wright and Reyes: But clearly, and as illustrated by people like hate list inductee Mike Francesa ... misguided as he may be on this ... the honeymoon is over for Wright and Reyes. They've been known as the future for so long they've gotten numerous passes from all of us. But the grace period ended as the era at Shea Stadium ended ... especially for Wright. And it's not fair. Reyes hasn't been quite as Teflon as Wright when it comes to criticism at home (he's gotten plenty of it from elsewhere from his dancing), but both have had their ascension to the forefront of the ballclub unchallenged for the most part. But now that they're there, it's time for the duo to shed their remaining weak points and take this game by the neck and shake the success out of it. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM
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September 28, 2008
The Tiger Shuffle
Permalink Jim Leyland announced that Brandon Inge will play third base in 2009 and Carlos Guillen will take over in leftfield. That is, if Leyland survives as manager and Dave Dombrowski doesn't tear the team apart in an effort to rebuild. When a team is designed to win a World Series and it finishes last, more needs to be done than moving names on a depth chart. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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September 24, 2008
Real or Easy?
Permalink Royals Authority wonders if the strong end to the season by Kansas City is real progress. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM
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September 22, 2008
Death Spiral
Permalink DMZ fears the Mariners will continue to sink in talent while the team still makes money. There's no incentive to win when the dough keeps rolling in. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM
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September 21, 2008
Bad Attitude
Permalink South Side Sox quotes Orlando Cabrera on how the White Sox can't handle falling behind in a game. "One of the things we are missing right now is we don't know how to trail," Cabrera said. "Once the other team scores before us, it seems like we lose hope. Does anyone have the number of comeback wins by the White Sox? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM
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September 20, 2008
Seattle Slide
Permalink I thought we might avoid a 100 loss team this season, but the Seattle Mariners lost their tenth game in a row today, making their reaching 63 wins highly improbable. Their offense, not strong all year, really went in the tank during the first nine games of the streak. Today's seven run outburst marked only the second time in the streak that they scored at least four runs. They've scored just 24 runs, suffering shutouts three times in the last ten games. They've allowed 57 runs, but four of the losses were by two runs or less. I suspect the players, management and fans of the Mariners can't wait for this season to end. This team hasn't lost 100 games since 1983. With eight games to go, they could still lose 105 games, which would set a franchise record. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM
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Big Bats on the Way?
Permalink Lewis Wolff answered questions about the Athletics speaking to the team's booster club. These two answers seem to be contradictory: Q: Will you bring in any big bats in the offseason? It's tough to being in big bats if you're not willing to pay for them. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM
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September 17, 2008
Royals Wonderings
Permalink The Royals are playing better. They've won five in a row and six of their last seven. Both the offense and pitching are contributing to the wins, and in general Trey Hillman's stock rose with the club. Sam Mellinger, however, points out something strange about last night's lineup that's tough to explain. Hillman dropped Jose Guillen from the lineup at the last minute without explanation. Here's Guillen's explanation: So then Guillen is reached at home Tuesday night on his cell phone. Mellinger is at a loss. Why would Hillman be mysterious about an innocent explanation? Either way, Guillen was convincing and sounded genuinely surprised that there'd be any question about why he didn't play. So Mellinger remains confused about Hillman's statements. No one is lying, it just seems there's too much mystery for a simple explanation. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM
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Back Page News
Permalink There's a great photo at Nationals Enquirer of the Mets after their 1-0 loss to Washington Tuesday night. He also points to this telling NY Post headline. With the Yankees falling out of the playoff race, the Mets easily won the back page of tabloids. This, however, wasn't what they had in mind. Update: Ben Shpigel can believe what he just saw. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM
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September 15, 2008
Lewis and Liz
Permalink Joe Christensen posts on how the Twins approached Radhames Liz and how they should approach Scott Lewis. The Twins waited for Liz to be wild and he poured in strikes. Lewis did the same thing in his first start, so Joe expects Minnesota to be more aggressive tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM
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September 12, 2008
Downward Trend
Permalink AZ Snakepit posts a graph showing how 2007 was an outlier for the Diamondbacks. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:11 PM
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September 10, 2008
Keeping the World Safe
Permalink AZ Snakepit notes how the Diamondbacks saved the world from annihilation. This collapse surprises me the most. Coming into the season, I thought the front office got things mostly right. I wasn't crazy about the Eric Byrnes signing, but he was a fan favorite, so I understood they wanted to keep them happy. They brought in Haren to give the team an excellent 1-2 punch. The hitters were young, but a year old and more experienced. When they got off to a good start, I thought they were going to be the 2007 Rockies, but for the whole season, not just September. It turns out, they were the Rockies for April. The Carlos Quentin deal seemed like a good one at the time, but I bet they wish they had that back right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:10 PM
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The Manager Sounds Worried
Permalink "We're playing like we're waiting to get beat," (Cubs manager Lou) Piniella said as he stood behind his office desk, his voice rising. "You don't have enough big of a lead in September to play ball like that. Teams that play baseball like that invariably get caught no matter how big their lead. You've got to stay aggressive. You've got to do the things that you've done all year. Someone get Lou a Yoda mask! Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM
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September 09, 2008
Just Wondering
Permalink Twins fans, did the team make the right move trading Johan Santana? Right now, the Twins are having a surprisingly good season but are faltering. If the team coughed up the money for Johan, they might be running away with the division and have a better chance if they actually make the playoffs. Is the future so bright that you think the team made the right move trading a possible World Championship this season for future success? Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM
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September 08, 2008
A Song in my Heart
Permalink Chris Jaffe ponders the perfect theme song for each team this season. He did a particularly good job on the AL Central. Of course, including a Blondie song helps. :-) One of my truly useless skills is remembering the words to old TV theme songs. Recently, my daughter didn't get a Mr. Ed reference (having spent 18 years with me, she's pretty good at obscure references to '60s TV shows). That caused me to break out into the entire opening and closing theme, in front of her friends, which of course embarrassed her no end. The joys of fatherhood. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 AM
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Bleak Future?
Permalink Giants Win is worried about San Francisco going down the same path as Pittsburgh. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM
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September 07, 2008
A Losing Record
Permalink AOL FanHouse notes the Pirates lost their 82nd game of the season today, making this the 16th year in a row they produced a losing record: With today's loss, the Pirates clinched a losing season. That seems unimportant because the Pirates do that every year, but that's EXACTLY why it is important. With this loss today, the Pirates clinched their sixteenth consecutive losing season, tying the record for an American sports franchise set by the 1933-1948 Philadelphia Phillies, a team so bad that they changed their name to the Blue Jays for two years in the middle of the streak. The article also notes the team has a good chance of making it 17 in a row, setting a new record. I don't know about that. They made some good trades, and with a little luck and .450 team can finish above .500. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM
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Score Difference
Permalink The Dodgers finished a sweep of the Diamondbacks this afternoon, taking the game 5-3. It was the eighth win in a row for Los Angeles after an eight game losing streak. Both streaks seemed to depend on the offense, as they did not score more than four runs in any of the eight losses, and haven't scored fewer than five runs in any of the eight wins. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 PM
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Two out of Three Ain't Bad
Permalink The Red Sox defeated the Rangers this afternoon 7-2, taking two out of three from Texas. The road presented a challenge for the Red Sox for most of the season, but since the Angels swept them in Anaheim, Boston swept or split every road series they've played. The Red Sox are 15-6 in their last 21 road games, taking two out of three except for a sweep of Seattle and a four-game split with the White Sox. They are now only three games under .500 on the road, the same as Tampa Bay. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM
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Rockies in 2009
Permalink Purple Row sees the Rockies late season success as a good sign for 2009. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM
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September 06, 2008
Faltering Bullpen
Permalink The Twins bullpen pitched poorly again today, blowing a lead and allowing Detroit a 6-4 victory. Starting on 8/23, the Twins pen has an ERA of 6.49 and the team's record stands at 4-10. The relievers owns a 3.91 ERA before that date. The bullpen is costing their team games as the relievers owns an 0-7 record with six blown saves in that stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM
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September 04, 2008
The Pirates Problem
Permalink Steve Pearce singled in two runs this afternoon as the Pirates take an early 3-0 lead on the Reds. Pearce, however, represents how the Pirates misvalued their prospects. He put up pretty good numbers in the minor leagues. However, coming out of college, he was probably a little old for some of the levels. He's 25 now, and just getting his second go-round with the major league club. Despite slugging over .500 in the minors, he's gone 126 at bats (entering today) without a home run. Rather than spending age 22, 23 and part of age 24 at single A, shouldn't the Pirates have promoted him quicker so the competition was more up to his level? I look at his stats and think he had it too easy, and now just can't handle major league pitching very well. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM
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Dodgers Dingers
Permalink The Dodgers downed the Padres 6-4 last night, blasting three more home runs as they kept pace with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Manny Ramirez's contribution was just two walks, since his arrival the power on Los Angeles jumped. Through 7/31, the Dodger slugged .376 with 74 home runs in 108 games. Since, they slugged .454 with 41 home runs in 32 games. It's as if Manny showed them how to swing for the fences again. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM
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September 03, 2008
Streaks
Permalink The Cubs lose to the Astros 4-0, the third time this year Houston shutout the Cubs. For some reason, the Houston pitching staff matches up well against Chicago. The Cubs losing streak goes to five games, and visions of 1969 are dancing in the stands at Wrigley. The Cubs are coming off a nine-game win streak, however. If the Cubs were winning two then losing one, no one would be that upset. So remember, the Cubs are 9-5 over their last 14 games. That's a .643 winning percentage. The same thing happened to the Rays. Remember their seven game losing streak? That was preceded by an 11-1 run, making them 11-8 over a nineteen game span. That was a much better measure of where they were going than either streak. The Cubs are probably going to be okay. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 PM
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Not Ready for Playoff Time?
Permalink The Mets finish the sweep of the Brewers Wednesday afternoon by a score of 9-2. Church hit a grand slam and Schneider added a solo shot in the first as the Mets took a 6-0 lead and never looked back. The much maligned Mets relievers gave up just one hit over 2 1/3 innings of work. The Brewers are staying in the race by crushing the weaker teams in the league. They played the Cubs the last series in July and were swept. Starting with that series, they are 1-9 against playoff contenders Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, 19-4 against everyone else. It makes you wonder how well they might do if they reach the post season. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM
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Keeping Aviles
Permalink As Dayton Moore appears ready to blow up the Royals, Royals Authority makes the case that Mike Aviles should stay. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 AM
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August 31, 2008
Summing Up the Tigers Season
Permalink After a 13-3 loss to the Royals on Saturday, Bless You Boys sums up the Tigers: Owned, pwned, fail - whatever you want to call it, it's plain ugly. Just when you think the Tigers have fallen as low as they can go, they push those shovels a little deeper and find further depths. The same might be said of Kenny Rogers, especially when he's facing the Royals. Last night, he allowed six runs on eight hits - including three home runs, two by rejuvenated Tigers killer Billy Butler - in six innings. In five starts against Kansas City this season (the most he's faced any team this year), Rogers has a 1-4 record and 7.07 ERA. That can be a problem with pitchers in their 40s. At some point their athleticism fades, and eventually the ability to fool batters. I assume he made five starts against the Royals because Leyland knew Rogers was a weak link in the staff and wanted to put him in a situation where he could succeed. The Royals are the second lowest scoring team in the AL, but even they ripped apart Rogers. The probability is farily high that Kenny won't be back next season. (Note, however, that the Royals do hit lefties much better than righties.) Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM
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August 27, 2008
Requiem for the Yankees
Permalink The Red Sox defeated the Yankees 11-3 tonight, pushing New York seven games back in the wild card standings and for all intents and purposes ending the chance of the Yankees making the playoffs. This isn't a good team playing poorly. No one sits there thinking, "If only Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner can live up to their potential." Age, injuries, and lack of depth caught up with this group, and in the last season in the House that Ruth built they're more than likely to be watching the playoffs from the sidelines. It was a great run. For thirteen straight seasons New York played in the post season. They fielded the greatest team I've ever seen in 1998. They won three World Championships in a row for the first time in 25 years, and came a few feet away from making it four in a row. The organization gave us Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. They turned Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius into stars. The Yankees turned Joe Torre into a Hall of Famer. He experienced some moderate success as a manager before the Yankees, but New York proved to be the perfect fit for Joe's personality and methods. He took over an intelligent team. He protected them from the owner and the media, and they produced wins and comebacks. He showed that someone could manage under Steinbrenner for the long term. The team was always interesting. Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, David Wells, Mike Mussina, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon showed they weren't afraid to spend to money. They generated headlines, controversy, adulation, and yes, wins. While it was clear for a while this teams wasn't as good as the ones of the last decade, tonight pretty much seal the deal. In two games that would make them contenders once again, the Yankees went down without much of a fight. So it goes. Now the team can focus on next year. They'll have money, a new stadium, and a good group of stars. I suspect they won't be down for long. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM
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The Positive Side of Sabermetrics
Permalink Beyond the Boxscore takes a look at how sabermetric teams are doing this year and concludes they are doing just fine. It seems to me that if sabermetric teams and more traditional teams are both at .500, it doesn't really matter which side you choose. Given that RJ actually figured out which teams were truly sabermetric (the Rays are), it's not as bad as I thought in this post. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:08 PM
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August 24, 2008
Nick'en Little
Permalink Nick Carfardo pens "The Sky is Falling" piece on the Red Sox: Is the sky falling? The Red Sox came into the season with some of the same concerns as the Yankees. They had some older players who might decline (Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz, Ramriez, Wakefield), some injury risks (Drew, Beckett) and some dependence on youth (Ellsbury, Pedrioa, Lester and Buchholz). The Yankees problems manifested themselves early, so New York had time to deal with them. The Bronx Bombers are better now than early in the season, although probably not good enough to make the playoffs. The Red Sox faced some problems early (Ortiz, Buchholz) but had the depth at that time to weather the adversity. Now, with a number of injuries coming at once and most avenues for change closed, Boston finds itself in a tough position. Instead of just worrying about the Yankees, they find themselves challenged by two teams from the midwest. Boston, Chicago and Minnesota are 2-3-4 in the AL in runs per game in August, all around six runs per game. The Twins are tied with Tampa Bay at 3.38 for the best ERA in AL, however, with Chicago 0.8 runs back in 5th and Boston another 0.6 back in 8th for the month. The Red Sox are scoring enough to keep winning, but they may be allowing too many to keep pace with the Twins and the White Sox. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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August 21, 2008
Unusual Combination
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Cliff Lee Cleveland's two best players came through today in a 10-3 win over the Royals. Cliff Lee won game number 18. He gave up two earned runs in seven innings. He allowed eight base runners, but induced four double plays to remove half of them. Lee is now sixteen games over .500. If the rest of the played .500, Cleveland's record would be 71-55, in contention in the AL Central. On the batting side, Grady Sizemore posted a four for five day. He missed the cycle by a double, driving in seven runs. His triple and homer drove in three runs each. This all from the leadoff spot. Sizemore now has 79 RBI and 78 runs scored on the season. Cliff Lee sits atop the AL Cy Young race. He combines the best record with the best ERA, and his three pure pitching stats, strikeouts, home runs and walks are all great. At this point, there's no reason not to award him the trophy. Grady Sizemore makes a legitimate claim on the MVP award. Sizemore came into the day third in runs created. Win Shares ranks him fifth. Right now, he would not get the prize, but a good finish could put him on the top of both categories. There's no reason to think he won't get support in the top five.  Grady Sizemore Thinks about that. A team well under .500 could produce both the Cy Young award winner and the MVP. Nothing like that ever happened before. Eighteen times a batter and pitcher won the two awards from the same team (I'm not counting season when the pitcher wins both). The only time the team didn't make the playoffs was in 1962. Maury Wills won the MVP and Don Drysdale the Cy Young for the Dodgers. Los Angeles won 102 games but finished one behind the Giants. A team with a great hitter and a great pitcher is usually a great team. That's the big failure of the Cleveland franchise this season. They failed to surround these starts with players capable of playing decent ball around them. Part of it was poor timing. Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Fausto Carmona all going down at the same time hurt. Hafner showed signs of decline in 2007, and the Indians didn't prepare for more of the same. Carmona's innings made him a candidate for an injury, and the Indians didn't really find a way to replace him. Cleveland tried to move Victor Martinez to first in the past; that might have saved the catcher from the decline and the injury. Two superstars and a good supporting cast gets a team into contention and often to the playoffs. The Indians got half the equation right, and that may result in the most unusual Cy Young-MVP combination in history. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM
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August 18, 2008
The Good Pitcher Theory
Permalink YFSF looks at how the Red Sox perform against the best pitchers in the league and find they lose more than other top offenses. I like these kind of studies, and if I have time later today I'll run a similar program I wrote. My guess is that the Red Sox are a bit walk dependent, and as the good starters average just two walks per start against Boston, they're taking away a key part of the team's offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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August 15, 2008
Opposite Offenses
Permalink The Dodgers defeated the Phillies Thursday night to send the NL East team into second place in their division. Both squads are pitching well in August (as last night's score indicates) but the offense moved in opposite directions:
In August the Phillies scored 5.0 runs per game and the Dodgers scored 4.5. The Manny trade worked so far. If I'm a Phillies fan, however, I'd be encouraged by the team's ERA. Philadelphia's offense is good. They're going to produce runs. If the pitching can maintain this level, that offense will win them lots of games down the stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM
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August 14, 2008
Offensive Outage
Permalink The St. Louis Cardinals shutout the Florida Marlins 3-0 to take the series three games to one. With Johnson, Sanchez and Volstad in the rotation, the Marlins offense seems to be taking the month off. They've scored 4.7 runs per game over all, but only 3.2 runs per game so far in August. They're just 5-8 in the month, and lost a chance to gain on the Phillies as the Mets have done. The Cardinals close the gap with Milwaukee to three games. They only averaged four runs a game in the series, but that was enough to beat a Marlins team that lost it's power. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM
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Eight in a Row
Permalink The Astros extend their winning streak to eight games, defeating the Giants 7-4 this afternoon. Tejada and Berkman combined to break a 4-4 tie in the eighth inning as Miguel singled and Lance followed with his 25th home run of the season. The Astros have scored at least six runs in six of the games and have not allowed more than five. Unfortunately, both the Brewers and Cubs are hot, going 8-2 over their last 10 through Wednesday. That makes gaining ground for the playoffs difficult. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:32 PM
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August 10, 2008
F's for the A's
Permalink The Oakland Athletics fall to the Tigers 4-1. The manage just one run off Nate Robertson in 7 2/3 innings. Nate Robertson walked just one and struck out five. This is the same Nate Robertson who came into the game with a 6.11 ERA, 42 walks and just 85 strikeouts. Unfortunately for the A's, this performance has been typical over the last month. Since July 12th, the team's record stands at 3-20. The have been outscored by 63 runs, an average of 2.7 runs per game. That's pretty much the level of scoring for the team, 2.8 runs per game. You can't blame it all on the offense, however. The pitchers have allowed 127 runs, 5.5 per game. What was once the best starting staff in the AL owns a 5.89 ERA over this period. I'm a big a fan of Billy Beane as anyone, but he screwed up this year. This was a team in contention, arguably playing better ball than the LAnaheim Angels, even though it didn't show up in the won-loss record. In the past, Beane was able to make mid-season trades that improved the team and sent them on winning streaks almost as good as this losing streak. This time, however, he tore the heart out of the pitching staff, and the result is a team that obviously no longer cares and no longer even tries to win. Nate Robertson is a hittable pitcher. The Athletics, however, trot out a lineup that can't get on base, can't hit for power, and can't score runs. It's a joke and an embarrassment. Greg Smith lasted just 4 2/3 because he walked seven batters and ran up his pitch count. He was lucky to allow just one run. The A's may have a plan, but it's getting harder to see. Maybe keeping Haren and Harden and drafting players who can actually hit would have been a better strategy. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM
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One-Two Punch
Permalink With the second complete game shutout in two games, Nationals Enquirer wonders what happened to the new look Nationals? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM
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August 05, 2008
Milwaukee Scuffle
Permalink The fight between Prince Fielder and Manny Parra appeared to be over Parra wanting to leave the bench after he was lifted for a pinch hitter and Fielder wanting him to stay. So this could turn into a positive team building exercise. Once again, people make too much of streaks. The Brewers are 11-8 over their last 19 games. That winning percentage would be good for 94 wins over a full season. If that same record came in two or three game spurts of winning and losing, they'd be in the same place they are and no one would be too worried about the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM
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July 27, 2008
Watch Out for the Rockies
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Ubaldo Jimenez holds a 2.04 ERA in July. That's the story of the whole month, too. The Rockies allowed three runs or less in 14 of their 22 games, helping them to a 15-7 record. The team ERA for the month, however, is 4.71, due to 54 of their runs allowed coming in four games. The starting staff posts a 4.48 ERA for the month, but again, four bad starts accounts for the high level. Overall, the staff is walking less than three batters per nine innings and allowing just 17.4 home runs per 200 innings. The Rockies pitching is now solid. Just six games out of the lead in a weak division, the Rockies may want to look for a bat that helps now if they trade away some pitching. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM
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July 26, 2008
Hanging on the Fringes
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Mariners this afternoon 8-3. That's five wins in a row for Toronto, putting them temporarily seven games out of the wild card and eight games out of the division lead. They've scored 35 runs in the five games as their offense is starting to come around. Granted, these games were all against last place teams, but a run at the playoffs has to start somewhere. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:51 PM
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July 23, 2008
Cubs Collapse?
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18 July 2008: Aramis Ramirez flies out to center field during a baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros. One thing is that the team appears to be a bit less selective. The leading team in the NL in walks drawn took only nine base on balls in the last five games. They seemed to be getting that back last night, however, as they did collect five against the Diamondbacks. The biggest factor, however, appears to be a slump by the middle of the lineup. The table setters, the 1-2 hitters, are getting on base quite well. So far there's little offense behind them, however. The 3-4-5- hitters have combined for seven hits in 60 at bats with one double and one home run. This resulted in just five RBI despite the 1-2 hitters reaching 20 times in the five games. The biggest culprit is Aramis Ramirez in an 0 for 20 slump, but Lee and Soto are also not delivering. Should Cubs fans be worried? Probably not. These are not hitters who have been playing over their heads crashing to earth. These are good hitters going through a slump at the same time. It won't last, but while it does, the NL Central turns into an exciting pennant race. The Brewers won another from the Cardinals on Tuesday night, moving them just a game behind the Cubs, while the St. Louis remains two back. It's any team's division right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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July 20, 2008
Low Run Turnaround
Permalink The Yankees defeated the Oakland Athletics today 2-1. That was their ninth win of the season when scoring 2 runs or less. They've lost 25 in that situation. In 2007, they went 2-31 scoring two runs or less. They've played more low scoring game than last year, showing their offense has fallen on hard time, but this season, the pitching is making up the difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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July 15, 2008
Must Be Missing the Angels
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Ervin Santana pitches a complete game shutout in Kansas City on May 5, 2008. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim not only hold the biggest lead of any first place team, they are tied with the Cubs for the best record in baseball. The Cubs own the highest run difference (Runs Scored-Runs Allowed) in baseball, so it's not surprising they have the best record. The Angels, on the other hand, have out-scored their opponents by just 21 runs, more in-line with a 50-45 seasons, seven games worse. The Angels are one of the few teams this season that excels on the road. Their 31-18 record is the best in the majors. The offense is about the same, scoring about 4.3 runs per game both home and road. The pitching, however, is posting a 3.45 ERA on the road, the best in the majors. Some credit here goes to Ervin Santana, who is 8-1 with a 3.44 ERA away from Anaheim after a horrible performance away last season. So the Angels are a good road team that is over performing at home. They own a 26-20 record in Anaheim despite being outscored there. I like that combination for continued success. With Guerrero's bat heating up since the start of June, runs should be a bit easier to come by. I'm guessing by the end of the season their run difference is much more in line with a first place team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 AM
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July 11, 2008
Darkened Offense
Permalink The Tampa Bay Rays fall to the Indians 5-0 as Cliff Lee pitches six shutout innings. He lowers his ERA to 2.31. The Rays spread out their eight hits, getting one each in innings two through nine. They've now lost five in a row, scoring just seven runs in the five games. They've also been shut out twice. Luckily for them, both Boston and New York lost tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM
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A Week of Wins
Permalink The Mets, despite issuing nine walks, hold the Rockies to one run as they win their seventh in a row 2-1. Oliver Perez walked six and struck out seven in six innings of work, and only allowed two hits. The Mets bullpen walked three more and struck out four, but only allowed one hit. The Rockies were 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position and left ten men on base, and despite all the walks, their only run came on a solo homer. The Mets pitching has been outstanding during the streak, allowing just nineteen runs and throwing two shutouts. In the one bad game they threw, allowing nine runs, the Mets scored ten. New York scored 44 runs in the seven games. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM
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NL East Tidbits
Permalink My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM
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July 09, 2008
NL East Roundup
Permalink My latest post at MetsBlog.com is up. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:54 AM
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July 08, 2008
Sign of the Times
Permalink If you want to know what's wrong with the Yankees this year, look at the OBAs of the starting lineup this evening. Only two players have OBAs over .350. It used to be that the Yankees might have one player under .350. The bottom four in the order are all under .300. Giambi is out due to a lefty on the mound, and Damon and Matsui are hurt, but this lineup makes clear the lack of depth on the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 PM
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Blaming the Injuries
Permalink Peter Abraham notes Hank Steinbrenner's comments on injuries and makes this observation: Remember back in spring training when the big story was how Joe Girardi's workout program would keep the Yankees healthy this season? So much for that. Well-intentioned as it was, injuries just happen sometimes no matter what you do. Guys get weird fractures or run into walls or get hit by pitches. All the sprints in the world in Tampa can't change that. It's also done nothing to keep Jeter and Abreu's bats fresh. If those two are hitting closer to their career norms, the Yankees would be in much better shape right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:26 PM
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One Hit Wonders
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07 July 2008: Chipper Jones tosses his helmet away after striking out against Hiroki Kuroda. Over their last thirteen games, Atlanta's offense played in a deep funk. As a team, they are hitting .213 with a .284 OBA and a .333 slugging percentage. Those numbers get most individuals sent back to the minors. Their situational hitting is even worse, with just 18 hits in 101 at bats with runners in scoring position. Interestingly, Teixeira, Jones and Blanco are hitting well during this period. So well, in fact, that in order for the team to post such low averages, everyone else is terrible. Jeff Francoeur was sent down, but McCann, Johnson, Kotsay and Escobar are pretty terrible right now as well. This probably makes a trade of Teixeira more likely. With the Braves falling fast and Mark heating up, now appears to be the time to trade the hitter for some prospects who can fill in the offense over the next couple of seasons. The problem is, about the only contender that can use help at first is the Athletics, and they tend not to trade for free agents. The other bay area team, the Giants, can also use some offense. Playing for now rather than building for the future is the kind of move Sabean has made lately. It should be an interesting month of speculation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM
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July 06, 2008
Change that Works
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Jim Riggleman The Mariners defeated the Tigers Saturday night 3-2. That win gives Seattle a 10-5 record under Jim Riggleman. The offense was sputtering under John McLaren, but they appear to have come to life under the new manager.
The power isn't there, but the team is doing a much better job of putting batters on base. When the bases keep getting filled, runners tend to come around to score. It also doesn't hurt that the team is hitting .301 with runners in scoring position under Jim. As you can see from looking at individuals, Sexson's 14 walks are making up for his continued lack of power. Ichrio is knocking out hits at a high rate, 23 in 15 games. Ibanez, Beltre and Clement are supplying the power. While there still appears to be no complete hitter on the club, most players are doing something useful. There's progress on the pitching side as well. Although they're not going deep in games, Bedard, Dickey and Washburn all pitched well under McLaren. The rotation is 6-4, but with an excellent 3.40 ERA under Riggleman. Unfortunately, the Angels are 9-5 in that time, so while the Mariners no long have the worst record in the majors, they've only gained 1/2 game in the standings. With Toronto 7-7 under Gaston and the Mets 9-9 under Manuel, Seattle is the only club so far where the manager made a difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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July 01, 2008
Red Sox in June
Permalink Lyflines conducts an audit of the Red Sox performance in June. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM
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Waiting for the Team Fight
Permalink Metstradamus is waiting for the Mets version of Shawn Chacon and Manny Ramirez: But when it happens, it's going to be huge. And make no mistake, when you pour an underachieving team into a pot and mix it with a bitter fan base and let a relentless media horde turn up the heat to about 450, it's going to happen. Only question is when. Maybe after this Cardinals series, which ... with Tony Armas Jr. starting tomorrow, and the unhittable albatross from last September Joel Piniero ... is already shaping up to be a disaster. But the explosion is coming. Make sure your disaster kit is ready. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM
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June 30, 2008
Just Luck
Permalink Al's Rambling looks to see if bullpen performance or batting with runners in scoring position are the reasons for teams being off from their expected W/L percentage. He concludes it's mostly luck. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 PM
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Pivotal Week
Permalink Henry Schulman believes this week will make or break the Giants. San Francisco faces the Cubs and the Dodgers in SF, but the Giants are playing poorly at home: Start with the Cubs. They have the best record in the NL (49-33) but a) are coming off being swept by the White Sox, b) are 16-23 on the road, c) will not have team RBI leader Aramis Ramirez for the first three games of the series because (unfortunately) he has a family emergency in the Dominican Republic, d) will not have Carlos Zambrano or Alfonso Soriano, who are still hurt and e) had to do the long overnight fly-west thing the Giants just did going from Cleveland to Oakland. San Francisco is just five games out of first place in the NL West. With no one else in the division playing well, if the Giants pitching can stop a depleted Cubs lineup and a hitless Dodgers lineup, we might see San Francisco in second place by the end of the week. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM
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June 25, 2008
Not Good
Permalink Purple Row sums up the Rockies season: Let me be succinct: if a team can't win on the road against other bad teams, they are themselves a bad team. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 PM
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Hatchet Man
Permalink With a great title, Ducksnorts succinctly sums up last night's Padres game. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM
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June 23, 2008
Turnaround Fair Play
Permalink With an 8-4 win over the Rockies tonight, the Kansas City Royals are now 9-2 in their last 11 games. During their losing streak, they would lose when the pitching performed well, dropping games 2-1, 3-1 and 4-3. They'd lose when they offense worked well, finding themselves on the wrong end of 11-8 and 9-8 scores. Now that's turned around. In these nine wins they've taken games by scores of 2-1, 3-2 and 4-1, as well as big scoring games like Sunday's 11-10 come back win against the Giants. The starting pitchers are definitely better as they've posted a 3.04 ERA over the last eleven games. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM
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Denbo Split
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays hitters seem to be split on former batting coach Gary Denbo. Matt Stairs didn't like Denbo's approach: Matt Stairs likes what he hears from Gene Tenace, the Toronto Blue Jays new hitting coach. And he is not bashful about declaring that the former coach, Gary Denbo, did not suit his style. Rolen and Overbay disagree: But after the offence stepped up in Sunday's 8-5 win over Pittsburgh, Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay maintained that Denbo did not endorse a passive approach. I'm guessing Denbo tried to push all batters into a particular hitting style, rather than trying to recognize a hitter's strength and working with those. Those that match his style will like him, those that don't won't. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM
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Singles Don't Attract Singles
Permalink Seth Kolloen discovers an unintended consequence of the Mariners losing. The singles scene disappeared from Safeco Field. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM
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Searching for a Shortstop
Permalink This from the Orioles notebook: The Baltimore Orioles designated infielder Freddie Bynum for assignment yesterday, and manager Dave Trembley said Alex Cintron will be the team's third starting shortstop this season. Baltimore shortstops are producing a .233/.274/.280 line this season. The AL average for shortstops is .260/.311/.361. Cintron's career numbers are a bit better than the AL average, so if he can just hits those marks it will be a huge improvement for the Orioles. If you have a problem with offense at first base, it should be fairly easy to find a solution, provided you're willing to give up some defense. At shortstop, however, all the good hitters are already taken, so filling an offensive gap at the important defensive position is much more difficult, as the Orioles are discovering this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM
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June 22, 2008
Two Good Weeks
Permalink The Tigers downed the Padres this afternoon 5-3. Starting June 7, the Tigers are 12-3, the best record in the majors. The Yankees are right behind them at 11-4. Both squads got off to poor starts this season, but given enough time and adjustments, they're both hitting their strides. The Tigers have scored 82 runs in their 15 games, better than five per game. More importantly, they've allowed just 56 runs, less than four per game. The pitching was a bigger problem than the offense, and now both are playing extremely well. Detroit could be just five games out by the end of the night, and the White Sox are losing 5-0 to the Cubs. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 PM
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Ned's Wallbangers
Permalink The Brewers hit four home runs this afternoon against the Orioles as they take the contest 7-3. That gives the Brewers 39 long balls in the month of June, the most in the majors pending the outcome of the White Sox-Cubs game. The southsiders hit 37 so far in June. They've equaled their May win total of 13, but so far with 10 fewer losses as they've only fallen six times. The are six games out of first place, but only two games out of the wild card. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 PM
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June 20, 2008
Pummeling the Mariners
Permalink The media, both old and new, is having a field day with the Mariners this morning. First, Art Thiel in the Post-Intelligencer: One constant voice with the Mariners is Chuck Armstrong, the longtime president who raised that voice on June 4 too, berating McLaren and the coaching staff before invoking not James Earl Jones but John Paul Jones, Revolutionary War hero whose famous quote, "I have not yet begun to fight," was reportedly relayed with much passion. At Lookout Landing, a new Mariners slogan: Something that just came to mind - you know what's a good mark of a terrible team? When the dismissal of its GM, manager, first baseman, and DH means that none of them will ever land the same position ever again. Forget Mojo Risin'; the real team slogan should've been 2008 Seattle Mariners: Career Destroyer. God we suck. Whoever takes over as GM and manager on a permanent basis is going to need to love a challenge. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM
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Are the Rays for Real?
Permalink The title is a question I've seen pop up on a number of the radio interviews I've done lately. With a sweep of the Cubs, the team with the best record in the majors, the answer is looking more and more like yes. They've out scored their opponents by 32 runs, meaning they've been playing over their heads a bit, and should have three fewer wins. A 40-32 record still makes them the wild card, however. There were huge questions about the Rays bullpen going into the season, but right now the group is posting a 3.32 ERA. That's keeping them in games late, one reason for their 12-7 record in one-run games. They're tied for four in the AL with a 3.84 ERA, the same as the Red Sox. The offense is still middle of the road. At 4.57 runs per game, they rank right in the middle of the American League teams at seventh. They're seventh in OBA and slugging percentage. So they have an okay offense and a good pitching staff. They're not a great team, but the offense is good enough for the pitching staff. If you look at the aggregate offensive numbers of the fielding positions, the Rays have a good chance to improve run scoring. Leftfield, rightfield and designated hitter are three positions that could be upgraded in a trade, and DH should be the easiest of those to fill. Doesn't Adam Dunn fill that spot nicely? Right now, the Rays are not quite as good as their record indicates, but they are legitimately a wild card team. The pitching is fine, and the places where the offense is weak are spots that are not difficult to upgrade. I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, but I expect them to contend until the end. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM
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June 19, 2008
Interleague Indians
Permalink The Indians lost to the Colorado Rockies Wednesday 4-2 as Colorado gets another well pitched game by Jeff Francis. The Indians are now 2-6 in interleague play, the worst record in the AL. That's costing them in the division. All four of their AL Central opponents won on Wednesday. Overall, Chicago and Kansas City are 6-2 against the NL, Detroit 6-3 and Minnesota 5-3. The Indians may be the biggest recipients of random bad luck over the last four seasons. In 2005 they arguably played better than the White Sox, but couldn't defeat Chicago in the last week of the season. They could not build on their 2005 success, and fell back under .500 in 2006. In 2007, they appeared to put it all together, then blew a 3-1 lead to the Red Sox in the ALCS. Once again, they're following a good but unlucky season with poor play. I often wonder why Wedge never seems to be on the hot seat. Update: Waiting for Next Year is not happy with Wedge. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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June 18, 2008
Reds Runs
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds lost to the Dodgers tonight 6-1, the second game in a row in which they scored just one run. Over their last eight games, Cincinnati scored a total of 17 runs. In addition to the two one-run games, they've also been shutout twice. I'm guessing there are two many runners clogging the bases. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM
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Meeting Expectations
Permalink The Tigers defeated the San Francisco Giants Tuesday night 5-1. In their last eleven games, Detroit scored five runs or more nine times and allowed less than five runs eight times. That's more like the way I expected the team to play this season. Over the 9-2 stretch, they've scored 61 runs while allowing 40, an average margin over their opponents of about two runs. They've briefly found their stride, now they need to show they can sustain it over a longer period of time. 
16 June 2008: Marcus Thames (33) hits his second homer during the San Francisco Giants' 8-6 victory over the Detroit Tigers at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA. Marcus Thames hit another home run last night. That five straight games for the Detroit outfielder, three short of the consecutive game record. He's also homered in six of his last seven games, seven dingers in total for a 1.273 slugging percentage over the stretch. Those seven are his only hits in those games. He's taking his all or nothing approach to hitting to the max in this stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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Improving Pitching
Permalink The Colorado Rockies pounded the Cleveland Indians Tuesday night, winning by a score of 10-2. The Mile High pitchers continue to post good numbers in June, especially compared to earlier in the season:
They're still in last place, but with Arizona's poor play lately the Rockies are eight games back in the division. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM
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Worn Out
Permalink The Mets looked tired last night. The team made three physical errors and one mental one. The play in the field looked sloppy overall. It makes you wonder if the late night firing of Willie Randolph caused the players to have a sleepless night. After two games Sunday, a late west coast flight, another game Monday, and the drama of Tuesday, the team just didn't look ready to play. 
17 June 2008: New York Mets General Manager Omar Minaya speaks to the media about the earlier firing of Mets Manager Willie Randolph before game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium in Anaheim,CA. Minaya wanted to fire Randolph as soon as possible after he made his decision, out of respect for Willie. I don't think it would have made that much of a difference if Omar had let everyone sleep Monday night and fired Willie over breakfast. Sure, maybe a newspaper would have broken the story, but everyone, including Willie, expected the firing soon. The unnecessary drama appears to have lowered the probability of the Mets winning on Tuesday, and against Lackey they fall 6-1. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 AM
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June 17, 2008
Mariners Still Can't Score
Permalink The Mariners lost to the Marlins Monday night 6-1. Since firing Jeff Petland, Seattle has scored 17 runs in seven games. At some point you have to wonder if firing all the hitters might actually work. Four of the nine Mariner batting slots have aggregate OBAs under .300, and two others are barely above that level. Andrew Miller pulled his ERA under five as he allowed the one run in seven innings of work. The Marlins keep pace with the Phillies and gain 1/2 game on the Cardinals in the wild card race. The St. Louis injuries may benefit the Marlins the most, as it gives them a chance to gain in that race. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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June 15, 2008
Finding Their Stroke
Permalink Since the three 2-1 victories over the Mets, the Padres seem to have found their offense. They've scored 36 runs in their last six games after averaging 3.6 runs per game through their 64 contests. They're hitting for power with ten doubles and ten home runs in their last six games, slugging .509. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 AM
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Youth and Experience
Permalink The Rays defeated the Marlins for the second game in a row as the cross state rivalry continues. Matt Garza pitched seven strong innings, allowing just three hits, one walk and one run. Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival combined to throw two perfect innings to finish off the Fish. Prior to the start of the season, the Rays bullpen was thought to be the weak spot on the team. So far, however, the bullpen is posting a 3.43 ERA to the starter's 4.00. They are allowing fewer hits per nine innings, 9.01 for the starters, 6.91 for the relievers. Both Wheeler and Percival are allowing batting averages below .200. So far, the youthful rotation and the experienced bullpen are just the right combination for putting Tampa Bay in playoff contention. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM
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June 14, 2008
Pitching Returning?
Permalink A comment from my post after the Tigers swept the White Sox: Here's the problem for the Tigres - who's going to give them the 3rd good start in a row? Armando Galarraga stopped the Dodgers 5-0 with seven strong innings of work on Friday night, allowing just three hits and one walk over seven innings. He has a 2.87 ERA in June, despite one poor relief appearance. If the Tigers can keep scoring about five runs a game, they can win with worse pitching than that. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM
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June 12, 2008
Relentless Cubs
Permalink 
8 June 2008: Kerry Wood & Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs celebrate win against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles,CA.
The remind me of the 1998 Yankees. That team outscored their opponents by an average of 1.91 runs per game. The Cubs are at 1.88 per game. I remember that Yankees team hammering middle relief, but that's where memory is never as good as data. The splits show the 1998 Yankees hammered starters from the third inning on. This Cubs teams is feasting on poor pitchers in the sixth and the seventh. The Yankees of 1998 drew a ton of walks, as the Cubs do now. The pushes pitch counts up, forcing opponents into their bullpens sooner. The average NL start this season is 5.7 innings, the average start against the Cubs is 5.6 innings. (In 1998, the average start against the Yankees was 5.7 innings, the average AL start 6.0 innings.) The Cubs 1.88 run difference per game would rank 10th since 1901, just ahead of the 2001 Mariners. All but one team in the top 15 won 100 games, and four of those teams won 110 games. This is certainly looking like the year of the Cubs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM
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June 08, 2008
The 2-1 Padres
Permalink 
Greg Maddux, shown earlier this season, started the Padres winning streak with a strong seven inning performance against the Cubs on June 4th. While the Padres do own six wins when scoring two runs or less. they also lost a ton of games in that situation:
The interesting thing is that the Padres should have been blowing out their opponents in the last four games. Look at the difference in batting stats. That's a good line for San Diego Batters:
Padres batters are 5 for 39 with men in scoring position during these four games. The offense starts innings fine, but doesn't finish them well. The three home runs they hit were all solo shots. It's an amazing four game winning streak, made so by the ineptitude of the Padres offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM
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June 04, 2008
Where's the Offense?
Permalink The Brewers played another great game this afternoon, downing the Diamondbacks 10-1. Parra struck out eight over seven innings for the win. So what happened to the DBacks offense? Over the last 18 games, Arizona scored three runs or less twelve times. I don't care how good a pitching staff they trot out, it's tough to win with that kind of run support. Who's to blame? The youngsters went into a slump together. Young, Upton and Drew are hitting in the low 200's or worse with slugging percentages well below .400, and they're not doing much to get on base. Luckily for the Diamondbacks, the big lead the developed early and a simultaneous slump by the Dodgers may keep them in first until these players turn it around. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:28 PM
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Home Field Advantage
Permalink My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why the three teams with the best home winning percentages don't do so well on the road. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM
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June 03, 2008
Road Woes
Permalink Tracy Ringolsby looks at just how bad this road has been for Colorado: They need a win tonight or Wednesday afternoon to avoid going winless on the 10-game journey, which would wipe out the 0-7 trip to San Diego and San Francisco in 1999 that currently stands as the longest winless trip in franchise history. They've been sloppy in the field as well: Then there was an Atkins throwing error that led to a two-run Dodgers second, an offline throw that wound up an error by Willy Taveras in the fifth and a botched run down that allowed James Loney to scamper home from second before Blake DeWitt could be tagged out to end the seventh. The Rockies road ERA in 5.34, 15th in the NL. In 2007, they were 5th at 4.29. The two seasons Colorado made the playoffs, they posted good road ERAs. One would think that pitchers away from Coors would take advantage of the better conditions, but the Rockies history is one of equally poor pitching home and away. Their 2007 pitching success is starting to look like a fluke. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM
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Angels in Trouble
Permalink John Hickey notes the Mariners have the Angels right where they want them: A 4-2 loss to Los Angeles on Monday night dropped the Mariners 13 1/2 games out of first place in the American League West. At least such comebacks are possible. It helps to have a team playing well, however. The 1995 Mariners were about a .500 team when they started winning in late August. These Mariners need a 16 game win streak just to get to .500. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM
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June 02, 2008
The Best They Can Do?
Permalink The Mariners can claim that they haven't given up on this season all they want, but let's be honest, when you give Miguel Cairo five consecutive starts at first base, you're not trying to win anymore. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM
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May 30, 2008
The Three Run Win
Permalink The Giants completed a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday night. Randy Johnson out-pitched Barry Zito, The Big Unit leaving with a 3-2 lead after seven innings. San Francisco, however, scored a single run in the 8th on a bases loaded walk and then Winn homered in the ninth to seal the victory. Giants pitching dominated the series, allowing three runs in each game. That fact that the Giants won with that type of pitching performance is big news. Coming into the series, San Francisco was 1-4 in game in which they allowed exactly three runs. The Major League record when allowing three runs 155-86, a .643 winning percentage, so the Giants are returning to the mean as their offense picks up.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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May 28, 2008
Surprising White Sox
Permalink My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at why the White Sox turned out to be such a surprise. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:37 PM
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A Little Fiestiness
Permalink Big League Stew details the soap-opera going on in the White Sox clubhouse. I find it a bit surprising on a first place team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM
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May 27, 2008
One Run Dodgers
Permalink For the fourteenth time this year, the Los Angeles Dodger were held to one run or less as they fall to the Cubs 3-1. That times them with Detroit and Kansas City for the most in the majors, although the Royals are being shutout through seven innings. This is the fourth time in the last five games the Dodgers offense failed to score more than one run. With that number of poor performances, it's impressive that the Dodgers are still in the race for the NL West. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM
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May 24, 2008
Interesting Komparison
Permalink Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM
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May 23, 2008
Jekyll and Hyde Pitching Staff
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds lost to the San Diego Padres Thursday night 8-2. It's another example of a very strange season for the Reds pitchers. Look at the home/road splits for the team:
Johnny Cueto at Dodger Stadium. Cueto is the poster child for the Reds home/road woes as he posts a 3.82 ERA at home, 7.99 on the road.
So what's going on? Could it be that visitors, knowing that Great American is a good place to hit homers, are swinging for the fences? This would account for the higher strikeout rate, and possibly fewer hits as fly balls fall into waiting outfield gloves. If the Reds were pitching on the road like they were at home, they'd be in contention in the NL Central. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM
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May 22, 2008
Can the Royals Win?
Permalink Part two of Someone Has to Win the AL Central is up at Waiting for Next Year. This one takes a look at the Kansas City Royals. It would help if they could take a game or two from Boston. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM
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May 21, 2008
Central Bragging
Permalink With the AL Central very tight, Waiting for Next Year asks team bloggers why their squad will win the division. The first entry is on the Tigers. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM
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May 20, 2008
Williamsville
Permalink The Braves defeated the Mets this afternoon 6-1 in the first game of their double header. Chipper Jones finished the game 1 for 4, dropping his average to a Ted Williams like .406. The Braves are tied with the Mets, 1 1/2 games behind the Marlins. A sweep of the double header and a Phillies loss puts Atlanta alone in second place. They are now 17-5 at home versus 6-16 on the road. They've outscored their opponents 128 to 74 at Turner Field. They've been outscored 90 to 83 away, but lost a large number of one run games on the road. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM
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Towers Lack of Power
Permalink Scott Miller notes that Kevin Towers is livid about the performance of the Padres. Of course, the blame may fall on his shoulders: A wicked combination of underachieving players and poor offseason personnel decisions following the best three-season stretch in club history has veteran players angry, coaches searching and the general manager downright livid. Add to that Jake Peavy going on the DL and it's turning into a real disaster. Miller also gets off the line of the story: They have the ultra-rare combination of no power AND no speed. Miller blames this on Moneyball, but it really came from the Padres doing a poor job of replacing their outfielders. They would not follow the market and overspend for quality and ended up with nothing. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 AM
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May 19, 2008
Improving Defense
Permalink Lone Star Ball offers some thoughts on how moving Hank Blalock to first is part of an organizational shift toward a better defensive team. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM
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May 18, 2008
Fish Fried
Permalink It was a bad week for the Florida Marlins. They suffer a sweep by the last place Reds, then lose two out of three to the Kansas City Royals. The offense hasn't been bad. They've scored six runs or more in four of the six games, but only won one of them. They've allowed 39 runs, however, going 1-5 on the week. They're still up 1/2 game in first place, however, pending the outcome of the Phillies game. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:43 PM
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May 15, 2008
Testing New Software
Permalink This is more for me to test something out, but if you don't mind fill out the following survey. Rate the teams in the American in the order you think they'll finish in the league as a whole. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 PM
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People Laughed When I Sat Down at the Piano...
Permalink Watch out for the Rays. People made all kinds of fun of me last year when I mentioned that would be a place to consider, luckily for them I didn't, but that's a good young team. Joe Maddon is one of the men responsible for my career and I think the world of the guy, and I think they've got immense amounts of young talent. Troy having a bit of a revival has certainly helped too. Great to see him back in the game and doing fantastic, couldn't happen to a nice guy. They're going to be good for a long time, and in a tough division, and from what I understand they've just tipped the iceberg on the wealth of young pitching talent they've got coming up. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM
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Rays for Real
Permalink So far this season, the Rays have played three teams that were considered competitive for playoffs coming into the season; the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. (I also thought the Mariners would be competitive, but that hasn't been the case.) Win the win today, the Rays split ten games with the Yankees, six games with the Red Sox, and swept three games from the Angels. They are hanging with the high payroll teams. Today they demonstrated great pitching, power offense, and very good glove work. Every day, they're looking less and less like a fluke. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 PM
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Three Seasons of the Tiger
Permalink With an 8-4 loss to the Royals this afternoon, the Tigers find themselves 16-25, six games out of first place in the AL Central. They also trail Kansas City by 3 1/2 games. Once again, the Tigers offense has disappeared:
Which team is for real? I'd like to think with that lineup the 6.9 runs per game is closer to reality, but right now the two slumps may be telling us something is seriously wrong with this offense. With another poor start, this time Kenny Rogers, the Tigers don't have the pitching staff to win with a low scoring offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:18 PM
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May 14, 2008
A Hard Look at the Mariners
Permalink Larry Stone says it's time for some introspection from the Mariners: It's not quite accurate to say no one saw this coming, the monumental debacle that has marked the first quarter of the M's season. I must admit that I too saw this team as pretty good. My feeling was that predictions of the hitters demise was being overstated, but that turned out to be wrong. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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May 13, 2008
Cubs Runs
Permalink The Cubs defeated the hapless Padres last night 12-3. That raises their runs per game average to 5.9. Chicago has a very strange run distribution for that average, however. Chicago is playing about two games under their Pythagorean estimate, and it's this concave distribution that may be the problem. They played 18 games where they've scored seven or more runs. They've played fourteen games, however, where they scored three or fewer runs. In other words, the area around five and six is nearly empty. The bell curve, if you will, is upside down. They've played 14 games that were tough to win, eighteen games that were easy to win, and only four games where you would expect the result to be competitive. The Cubs have yet to record a score of 4 or 5 runs this season. I suspect that with all the walks the team is drawing this season, they are susceptible to pitchers who stay in the strike zone. We'll see how this plays out over the season. I suspect by the end of the year we'll see a lot more games with the Cubs in the 4, 5, and 6 run range. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM
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May 12, 2008
Wrong Players
Permalink Halos Heaven blames the Angels losing streak on the wrong players suffering injuries. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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May 10, 2008
Powerful Fish
Permalink The Marlins are up 6-0 on the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning. So far tonight they've picked up six hits, three of them for extra bases. Florida came into the day sixth in batting average and ninth in OBA, but they're slugging .450, second in the league. They're not getting many men on base, but at least they're moving them around with extra base hits. Update: It's now 10-0 as Uggla hits a grand slam. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM
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Padres Criticism
Permalink Tim Sullivan in the Union-Tribune cuts the Padres management no slack: Jim Edmonds was not the problem. He was the symptom. He was the bridge too short, another in a series of stopgap question marks by a ballclub long lacking in home-grown answers. The Padres are a very strange organization. They put a lot of brain power in the front office, but they seem to find a long term plan. Are they a win now team? Are they a team that manages youngsters so good new talent is always coming into the system? They seem to be neither. Win now requires sometimes overpaying for talent. Managing youngsters means drafting well and trading well. As far as I can tell, the Padres do neither. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM
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May 09, 2008
Frustrated Mariners
Permalink Evan Grant does a good job of promoting the games next week between Seattle and Texas: A friendly community service reminder: The Rangers host Seattle for three games starting Monday. For those who can't land Stars tickets and want to see a fight, plenty of good seats are available in Arlington. Gabbard's leg is bruised, but the Rangers don't think the injury is serious. Sexson apologized for throwing his helmet at Gabbard, but I still think he should get a decent suspension out of the incident. The frustration that led to the fight is more than just the hit batters in the game. Look at how the Mariners are hitting in May. In eight games, they've been held to two runs or less seven times, scoring just fourteen runs in total. As a team, they are hitting below the Mendoza line. They're hitting .137 with men in scoring position. They've only had three plate appearances with a man on third and less than two out! Their team OPS is .525! Take away Ichrio, and the rest of the team approaches the level of a National League pitcher. It's a huge slump for a team that should really hit decently. What makes it worse is that they've been shutdown by New York and Texas, two teams that certainly had some pitching problems this season. Just to rub salt on the wound, they release Brad Wilkerson, who right now owns the highest OBA on the team. I'm not sure if the blame should go to the GM for putting the team together or the manger for not getting them to play up to their ability, but one of them should be on the hot seat right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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May 06, 2008
San Diego Speed
Permalink Tom Krasovic pens a good article on the lack of speed among the players on the Padres. Alderson points out they didn't have much speed last year, but with people getting on base, no one really noticed. Bill James in his 1980s Abstracts wrote that every strength covers a weakness. What's happened this season is the strength of getting on base disappeared, exposing the speed weakness. It's showing up on the base paths. The Padres made only nine stolen base attempts this season, fewest in the NL (they were successful seven times, however). The article leads you to believe it's showing up in the outfield, and while their Zone Rating is below average, they've made a good many plays out of the zone as well. When a team goes into an offensive funk, speed helps make the most out of the limited scoring opportunities presented, and helps the pitching staff keep the score low. San Diego is in that situation now, and they don't have the speed dimension to on which to fall back. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:21 PM
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The Oakland Offense
Permalink The Oakland Athletics rank fourth in the American League in runs per game with a 4.74 mark. Their 2-1 win over the Orioles last night, however, both demonstrates the strengths and glaring weakness of this team. They picked up eight hits, four walks, and no extra base hits. So for the game, their batting average was .222, their OBA .300, and their slugging percentage .222. For the season, the line is .253/.339/.362. It's a low hit, low power, high walk offense. They've draw 145 walks, most in the AL, thirteen more than the second place Tigers. This is the type of offense that's fairly easy to shut down, and you can see it in Garrett Olson's line. He went 6 1/3 innings, allowed four hits and just one walk and the Athletics picked up just one run. It was Johnson who walked three in 1 2/3 innings, issuing one to Frank Thomas in the tenth to put the winning run in scoring position. Put the ball over the plate, and the Athletics are a mediocre offense. Try to fool them off the plate, and they'll take those pitches and walk you to death. This is exactly the kind of team that loses in the playoffs. They go up against a team that throws strikes, and their high OBA is reduced to their low batting average. Unlike the Athletics teams of the late 1980s, this squad doesn't even have power to fall back on. Simply put, to beat Oakland, throw strikes. They can't hit them. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 AM
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May 05, 2008
Late Inning Woes
Permalink DuckSnorts looks at the Padres run differential by inning to see where the team goes wrong. They're doing very poorly in the late innings compared to last season. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM
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May 04, 2008
Here Come the Nats
Permalink The Washington Nationals defeated the Pirates 5-2 today and are now 9-3 over their last 12 games. They put fifteen batters on base today via a hit, walk or hit by pitch. If you look at the batters over this time, you'll see they're loading the bases with runners. Six of their regulars have OBAs over .350 in this stretch, although they're not hitting for a lot of power. Still if a team keeps pushing men on base, they come around to score eventually. They scored 70 runs in their first 20 games, 50 in the last 12. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM
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The Pierre Surge
Permalink The Dodgers defeated the Rockies12-7 Saturday night to win their eighth game in a row and nine of their last ten. The offense, which showed signs of greatness earlier, came alive completely over the last ten games:
They've almost doubled their runs per game compared to the earlier time period. Notice that the increase in runs comes from doing a much better job of getting on base with plenty of singles. The team OBA over the last ten games is higher than the team's slugging percentage over the first 20 games, but slugging percentage hasn't gone up all that much. Here are the Dodgers hitters before and after. The person who jumped the most is Juan Pierre.  25 April 2008: Dodgers #9 Juan Pierre during the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-7 win over the Colorado Rockies in 13 innings at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. Over the first 20 games he picked up eleven hits and one walk. Over the last ten (he's played seven) he's knocked out nine hits and drew five walks. With Andruw Jones the only Dodger not to take part in the offensive explosion, Pierre may be re-earning his place in centerfield. Note that Martin, Kemp, and Kent all improved in this time period as well, with Furcal, Ethier and DeWitt maintaining their good performances. That means even if Pierre returns to his norms, this team should keep scoring runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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May 03, 2008
Early Scores
Permalink The Yankees scored in the first inning today for the fourth straight game, taking a 1-0 lead on the Mariners. They've scored seven runs in those four first innings, five in the other 23 they've played. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM
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May 01, 2008
Half Dozen Dodgers
Permalink Los Angeles defeats Florida 5-3 as Furcal, Pierre and Kemp combine to manufacture a run with walk, sacrifice and single in the top of the ninth. That broke a tie, and two errors by the Marlins led to an insurance run. The Dodgers have won six in a row. They've scored 47 runs in that stretch, and twice they needed the runs as they've recorded wins of 8-7 and 7-6. The much maligned Pierre is sporting a .355 OBA after reaching three times today. It's amazing how having someone after your job makes you more productive. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM
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Great End to a Great Month
Permalink The Cubs closed April a blow out of the Brewers, 19-5. Toni Ginnetti recaps what made this one of their best starts ever. They cultivated an offense that leads the National League in hitting (.286) and ranked second in drawing walks. One of the players that is making the Cubs more selective at the plate is Geovany Soto. While he's averaging nearly a strikeout per game, he's also drawn 15 walks for a .427 OBA and his two home runs last night bring his total to five on the season and his slugging percentage to .621. The team will trade the strikeouts for that kind of selectivity and power any day. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM
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April 30, 2008
Catching the Ball
Permalink My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM
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April 29, 2008
Why the Dodger Drought?
Permalink Jon Weisman notes that some people cite the Los Angeles lifestyle for the reason the Dodgers don't win any more. I think it's because the Dodgers no longer burn out pitchers. The pitched Koufax and Drysdale as much as possible and they won, although both pitchers saw an early end to their careers. Don Sutton put up some big numbers in the early 1970s and the Dodgers won. Fernando Valenzuela? Orel Hershiser? Give Penny and Lowe 260 innings each, and I bet the Dodgers do very well. Leaving your best pitchers on the mound as long as possible is a great strategy for winning now, but it is very short term. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:47 PM
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April 26, 2008
Living in the Past
Permalink The Giants defeated the Reds Friday night 3-1 in a well pitched game by both Harang and Sanchez. The Giants are now 7-6 in games in which they score between 1 and 3 runs. That's a pretty remarkable number. The Giants are averaging 3.1 runs per game. Given that the average NL team averages 4.5 runs per game, you'd expect the Giants to post a winning percentage around .322. Instead, due to the terrific pitching performances they've received, they're 11-13, in second place in the NL West. They're the only team with a winning record when they score between 1 and 3 runs:
Note that the Padres, who also have a poor offense and a great pitching staff don't do very well in these games. For the Giants it's 1968 all over again. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM
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Jays Smoked
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays lost for the ninth time in eleven games last night, blowing a late, two-run lead. Scott Rolen, making a dramatic return from a finger injury that had sidelined him since spring training, delivered a two-run double in the top half of the eighth to put the Jays up 4-2 and seemingly in good shape to snap their four-game losing streak. The Jays are a bit dysfunctional this season. The bullpen's ERA is a very good 3.44, but they have a 1-6 record. That indicates bad timing. The offensive is a poor man's A's and Tigers from the early 1990s. Those teams didn't hit much for average, but drew a ton of walks and pounded the ball when they did make contact. The Blue Jays are drawing the walks, but their slugging percentage is a measly .369, twelfth in the AL. Maybe it wasn't the best time to let Frank Thomas go. I wonder how long Ricciardi lasts. He talks a good game, but of all the GMs to come out of the Alderson/Beane school, he's done the worst job of execution. With the Rogers increasing payroll in recent years, he no longer has the excuse of money. He should be on the hot seat. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM
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April 23, 2008
Δodgers House
Permalink Jon Weisman notes things are getting a bit wacky for the Dodgers. Look - I can put together more reasons not to worry about the marching band being stuck in a dead-end alley and the Dodgers tripping over the 10,000 marbles in the street, I really can, but you've probably heard enough of that from me for the past couple of weeks. These guys have been Faber College foulups without hardly any of the fun, and it's wearing most of them out, and it's wearing most of us out. I wonder if Torre has Andruw Jones on double secret probation? Update: That's supposed to be a delta in the title. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM
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April 22, 2008
Swinging Early
Permalink FishStripes notices the Marlins are feasting on first pitch strikes. It strikes me that this is something opponents should easily exploit. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 AM
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Cubs Taking
Permalink Gordon Wittenmyer notices the Cubs are more selective at the plate this season. With only a couple of additions to the lineup this April, the free-swinging, oft-missing Cubs, well, aren't anymore. I'll also note the Cubs have only grounded into ten double plays this year, so they're not taking runners off base, either. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM
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April 20, 2008
Pounding the Pirates
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their fifth game in a row, falling to the Chicago Cubs 13-6. That equaled the number of runs they scored in the previous four losses. They allowed thirteen runs for the second game in a row, and have been outscored in the five contests 48-12. The starters haven't given the team much of a chance as they've pitched 22 1/3 innings in the five games while allowing 27 runs, twenty five of them earned. They've only struck out ten while allowing 41 hits. At the moment, it's looking like the new management isn't making much of a difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 PM
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Giants Score
Permalink The Giants lifted their runs per game above 3.0 today with an 8-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. With 61 runs in 19 games, they'll keep that level even if they are shutout in their next contest. All nine Giants starters, including the pitcher picked up at least one hit. The win makes the Giants to 8-11, a bit of a moral victory as they move 1/2 game ahead of the Dodgers into fourth place. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:24 PM
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Praising the Opposition
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks made Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-New a believer: They are younger than the Padres, faster than the Padres, seemingly more talented than the Padres. Tom noted the difference between the outfields of the two teams: A key to San Diego's two defeats going into today's series finale is that Arizona's outfielders ran down balls that Padres outfielders such as Jim Edmonds and Paul McAnulty couldn't quite grab. It's a tough ballpark for pitchers. As a measure of that, consider the DBacks team ERA on the road is 1.94, and at home 3.75. Since 3.75 is a great number for a team over a season, it gives you an idea of just how good a pitching and defensive team Arizona assembled. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 AM
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April 19, 2008
Late Inning Lightning
Permalink The Red Sox rallied for three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning tonight to defeat the Rangers 5-3. The Red Sox are saving their best for last this season. From the eighth inning on, the Red Sox batters are 47 for 135, a .348 batting average. They've also picked up 15 extra-base hits, including six home runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM
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April 18, 2008
Cubs Getting On
Permalink The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon in a close game, 3-2. Despite the low score, the Cubs put eleven men on base via a hit or a walk. Although they only drew two base on balls this afternoon, they're doing very well in that category this season. With 64 walks in sixteen games the Cubs are averaging exactly four BB per contest. Last year they drew walks at a rate of 3.1 per game, and the previous two seasons (Dusty Baker) they were around 2.5! The last season a Cubs team averaged over four walks per game was in 1975. Coming into today, they posted a .266 BA, but with all the walks their OBA was an excellent .346. Fukudome with twelve gets a lot of credit, but Soto drew two today and now stands at nine. Two relative new comers are making a big difference. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM
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April 17, 2008
Happy Start
Permalink Brian Kamenetzky is very happy with the Angels start, given that both Lackey and Escobar are on the disabled list. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM
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April 16, 2008
Mental Mistakes
Permalink Richard Durrett lists the mental mistakes the Rangers made yesterday, and over the last few games. This is the type of play that reflects directly on the manager. Players go into slumps, players make a mistake from time-to-time, but when it all comes together like that it really looks like Washington doesn't have the team properly prepared. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM
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Shutting Down Colorado
Permalink Randy Wolf and the San Diego Padres shutout the Colorado Rockies Tuesday night 6-0. It was the eighth time this season Colorado was held to two runs or less, most in the majors:
In 2007, Colorado was held to two runs or less 39 times, or 6.5 times per month. They're not at the bottom of the runs per game list, but they're getting close. Outside of Holliday and Helton, we're not seeing the combined OBA and power from the Rockies evident last season. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 AM
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April 15, 2008
Scoring Machine
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks downed the Giants this afternoon 8-2. That raises their major league leading runs per game to 6.4. Last season, the pitching carried this team, but the youngsters on offense matured this year, and they are knocking the ball around the park. With Micah Owings doing another good job of demonstrating the irrelevance of spring training stats today, this team has a rotation to match their offense. In a league lacking a great team, they could run away in the race for best record in the league and home field advantage. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM
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April 14, 2008
The Lear Tigers
Permalink Bless You Boys wonders if the Tigers can get any worse. I'm always reminded of King Lear when I hear a question like that. Throughout that play just when you think things can't get any worse for Lear, they get worse. Right now, the offense is bad, the starting pitching is bad, and the relief pitching is bad. I suppose Guillen and Ordonez could both go down with injuries. While that may not make things worse, it would certainly make recovery from this start much more difficult. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 AM
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April 11, 2008
Heart Health
Permalink Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hit back-to-back home runs in the first to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead over the Phillies. The heart of the Chicago lineup, the 3-4-5 hitters are producing plenty of extra-base hits. They've knocked out eight home runs and eight doubles with the two dingers tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM
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April 10, 2008
Low Run Wins
Permalink The Giants have found a way to win. Don't allow runs! The team scored four runs in their last two games, about in line with their offensive rate all year. They've only allowed two, however. Last night, Jonathan Sanchez pitched six shutout innings against the Padres, and the bullpen kept it going until the hero of the previous night, Bengie Molina singled to start the ninth, then with two out, Ortmeier doubled in the pinch runner. So all the Giants need to do to win the NL West is keep their ERA around 1.00! Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM
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April 08, 2008
Significance?
Permalink The Tigers lose to the Red Sox 5-0. At 0-7, it's time to seriously reconsider the notion that the Tigers are a playoff caliber team. A 90 win team has a .555 winning percentage. The chance of a .555 team going 0-7 is .0035, or 0.35%. In other words, playoff teams tend not to lose seven games in a row. They're not barely over two runs per game, having scored 15 on the year. It's tough to blame this on the absence of Granderson, since Inge has hit well in his stead. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM
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April 07, 2008
Jays Joy
Permalink Despite issuing an excitement disclaimer, Jays Nest is very excited about the Toronto Blue Jays: The truth about this team is that they were hurt last year. They were hurt so bad that even a blind monkey could have mixed in with the other 8 players we had to use at third/ in the bottom of the pitching staff/in center field/ at shortstop (offensively, although I'd give the monkey at least a shot to make a few Johnny Macesque plays)/and catcher the previous season and no one would have noticed. It affected everything, from the hitting to the pressure on the pitchers, to the manager's ability to take chances and run...everything. I like this starting rotation a lot. My worry was the offense, with Wells tanking last year and the former Cardinals long in the tooth. So far, however, so good. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM
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April 03, 2008
Juggernaught
Permalink You can't stop the Washington Nationals, you can only hope to contain them. Jamie Moyer fails at containment, allowing five runs in the first inning. Guzman, Belliard and Flores all double in the inning, along with three singles and a walk as the Nationals bat around. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:23 PM
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March 31, 2008
The Tiger Path
Permalink Sam Mellinger looks at how the Tigers went from laughingstocks to champions and compares that path to the one taken by the Royals: It's funny, though. If you look at how the Tigers went from 119 losses to World Series contender, and squint your eyes a little while you're doing it, it might look like what the Royals are doing now. Moore and the Royals get to test their plan against the Tigers this afternoon. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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March 29, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Florida Marlins
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Florida Marlins. Their starters posted a 5.58 ERA in 2007, highest in Major League Baseball. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Andrew Miller
It's really sad when a team finishes last in a category and they do nothing to fix it. It's even worse when they degrade the rotation by insisting on starting pitchers like Hendrickson and Vander Hurk. Marlins fans can hope that Miller plays well in his first full season in the majors, but as for the rest of the rotation, the Maroone call to the bullpen will happen early and often. Without the ballpark adjustment, Miller is projected to allow less than one home run per nine innings. Playing in Miami, it should even be lower. I'd like to see his projected walks improve. It was excellent in the minors. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:49 PM
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March 28, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Texas Rangers
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Texas Rangers. Their starters posted a 5.50 ERA in 2007, highest in the American League. Their 838 innings represented the fewest pitched by a starting staff in the majors. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Kason Gabbard
This is just a bad rotation. When the one-two starters each project to ERAs well over 4.00, and only one of them has barely enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, there's going to be trouble. They can't go deep in games, which puts pressure on the bullpen. They get injured, so that brings in replacement starters, who tend to be not as good. Everything builds, and before you know it the whole staff is performing badly. The positive spin is that Gabbard, Mendoza and McCarthy might develop into good starters, and a healthy Jason Jennings can give the rotation some much needed innings. The rotation starts with such low expectations, there's nowhere to go but up! Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM
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March 27, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Tampa Bay Rays
Permalink John Perricone donated $50 or more and dedicates this post: Congratulations for supporting David's efforts to run the very best baseball site there is. He is, of course, my blogfather, and one of my biggest and earliest supporters. Please continue to drive towards a big pledge month, and of course, please visit David's blogson, Only Baseball Matters. The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. Their starters posted a 5.20 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart, sort of. I'm assuming here that Kazmir will be back soon and Hammel is better than Jackson. 
James Shields
For a more optimistic look at the Rays rotation (using PECOTA) see my latest SportingNews.com column. Something that Marcels don't pick up that PECOTA captures is fielding. The Rays swapped out one of the worst fielding shortstops of 2007 for one of the best. That should make a big positive difference in the team's ERA. My guess is that Garza and Sonnanstine are going to pitch closer to 160 innings, and eventually they'll replace Jackson with Hammel. Fans are likely to be impressed with the improvement of the team's ERA this year, partially from their pitchers maturing, and partially from the defense playing much better. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM
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Rotating the AL East
Permalink My lastest column at SportingNews.com looks at which team projects to have the best rotation in the AL East this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM
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Giants Spin
Permalink With Barry Bonds now a non-person, the Giants makes promises they can't keep: "With Barry Bonds gone," Magowan said, addressing the media throng, "this is clearly the beginning of a new era for the Giants." If you really want a youthful team, you do what Cleveland and Florida did. Trade or release all the veterans and put young players on the field. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM
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March 26, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Seattle Mariners
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Seattle Mariners. Their starters posted a 5.16 ERA in 2007, twelfth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Felix Hernandez
Faced with a truly bad rotation, the Mariners made two moves to improve their starters. They traded the future for another ace, Erik Bedard. They also signed Carlos Silva, a master of putting the ball in the strike zone. Silva doesn't walk many, but his pitches in the zone can be hittable. However, he's a very good back of the rotation pitcher, which is all the Mariners need. After competing despite two horrible starters in the rotation, the Mariners look a lot stronger this year. One question that needs to be answered is can Felix Hernandez be effective and healthy at the same time. He was off to an amazing start before an injury shelved him. Can he pitch like that again without putting his arm at risk? It's a similar question the Twins have with Liriano. I like this rotation. The front end might be great, and the back end isn't terrible. Not too many teams can say that. With the injuries in Anaheim, the Mariners look like they have the best staff in the AL West. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM
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Rotation Evaluation, Washington Nationals
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Washington Nationals. Their starters posted a 5.11 ERA in 2007, fifteenth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Matt Chico
A clue that this rotation doesn't work is that the fourth starter is projected to pitch the most innings, and the fourth and fifth starters project to the lowest ERA among the starting five. It's really sad that the Nationals can't come up with a better solution than Odalis Perez for opening day. Shawn Hill starting the season hurt certainly doesn't help. Although he projects to a good ERA, he doesn't project to a lot of innings either. Expect this team to use lots of starters this season. Update: Lannan was just optioned to AAA. However, Manny Acta said he could be back soon depending on Shawn Hill's status. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:51 PM
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March 25, 2008
Outfield Cats
Permalink Bless You Boys sorts out the Tigers outfield now that Granderson is starting the season on the disabled list. Inge is going to get some playing time there. I bet as the season progresses, Brandon is going to play a lot more than he thought. He's seems to be the first replacement for almost every position. However, I would guess that moving Jones to center, Cabrera to left and letting Inge play third would give the team the best defensive alignment with Curtis on the sidelines. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM
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March 24, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, St. Louis Cardinals
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. Their starters posted a 5.04 ERA in 2007, fourteenth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Adam Wainwright
At the moment, this is a cobbled together rotation. Wainwright gives the team a legitimate number one starter. However, he went from 75 innings in 2006 to 202 innings in 2007, and that puts him at risk for injury. The Cardinals own a lot of injury depth, however, as Pineiro, Clement and Mulder are working their way back for an early season return, and they may even get Chris Carpenter on the mound in the second half of the season. These injuries are a golden opportunity for pitchers like Lohse, Wellemeyer and Thompson to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. Given the history of Lohse and Wellemeyer, however, Thompson has the best chance of sticking around. Given the general lack of talent in these five and all the injuries, I suspect the rotation that ends the season for St. Louis will look very different from the one that starts the year. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM
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March 23, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Pittsburgh Pirates
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their starters posted a 5.02 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Ian Snell
On a team with a great offense, this would not be a bad pitching staff. A 4.42 starters ERA is going to win a lot of games if you team is scoring runs at a per game clip of 5.5. With the innings predicted here, the Pirates won't need to go to their sixth and seventh starters too often. While there's no truly great starter on the team, there's no truly bad one either. There is some reason to believe the youngsters might improve. Snell if the oldest of the four at 26. There's room for maturation and experience to make these players better. While it won't be a great staff, it shouldn't be the reason the Pirates play poorly in 2008. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM
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March 21, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Philadelphia Phillies
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. Their starters posted a 4.91 ERA in 2007, twelfth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Kyle Kendrick
Brett Myers should pitch more than 94 innings given that he's in the rotation, which would likely lower the Phillies starters' ERA even more. One key to the Phillies success will be Kyle Kendrick. Can he keep performing at that level if the Phillies add on another thirty innings, and if he keeps his strikeout rate that low. The defense behind Kendrick was good in 2007, but the team only turned four more outs than expected. That indicates the balls in play against Kyle weren't that difficult to field in the first place. My guess is that Adam Eaton is a stop gap until the Phillies find someone good. They'll give him a chance to earn his $8 million, but if he pitches anything like he did in 2007, they shouldn't have too much trouble finding a replacement. With their offense, if they can keep the starter's ERA around 4.50, they should win quite a few ball games. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:40 PM
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March 20, 2008
Giant Headache
Permalink 6-4-2 Opines on the plight of the Giants this season as a AAA squad of Cubs beats the San Francisco starting lineup: It'll be a long year in San Francisco. Bruce Bochy might want some Excedrin. In an article I researched for SportingNews.com, while spring records don't mean much, teams that play extremely poorly in the exhibition season tend to play poorly during the regular season, too. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 AM
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March 19, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Kansas City Royals
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Kansas City Royals. Their starters posted a 4.88 ERA in 2007, eleventh in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Zack Greinke
The front of the Royals rotation might actually be okay. Meche improved in 2007, and he's a pitcher who can give the Royals a lot of innings even though he may not produce the best ERA. There's no doubt the sabermetricians are rooting for Bannister to do well. He's demonstrated an understanding of fielding independent pitching stats, for example. Zack Greinke finished strong in 2007, posting a 1.85 ERA over his last seven appearances, all starts. He struck out 8.2 per nine innings while walking 2.6. If he comes anywhere near that ratio in 2008 he'll be the ace of the staff. I'm willing to give Dayton Moore the benefit of the doubt on Kyle Davies. Moore saw something in Gil Meche, and he has more experience with Davies having worked in Atlanta. If Moore is wrong, however, there's going to be a lot of praying for rain on days the fourth and fifth starters are scheduled to pitch. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM
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March 18, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Baltimore Orioles
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Baltimore Orioles. Their starters posted a 4.86 ERA in 2007, tenth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Daniel Cabrera
With the trade of Erik Bedard, the Orioles are left with a rotation without a projected ace. Guthrie took a big step forward in 2007, but he'll need to repeat that season before the projection system gives him the benefit of the doubt. Daniel Cabrera stands as the most frustrating pitcher on the staff. He can be over powering, but his control gets him in trouble. The Orioles are working on his posture, trying to get him to stay tall on the mound rather than slouching. At age 37, it's not clear how many innings Trachsel can eat at this point. He hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2004. All in all, it's shaping up to be a poor season for the Orioles starters, unless Cabrera can pleasantly surprise people. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM
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March 17, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Cincinnati Reds
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Cincinnati Reds. Their starters posted a 4.86 ERA in 2007, eleventh in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Since Johnny Cueto does not have a Marcel projection, I used PECOTA instead. 
Aaron Harang
The Reds are a tough rotation to judge right now since they have three young pitchers who may end up at the back of the rotation. Only Cueto makes the top five of the depth chart, but Edison Volquez is pitching just as well this spring, and Homer Bailey remains a top prospect. The good news for the Reds is that they have the innings to get them most of the way through the seasons, and with the young guns in reserve, Cincinnati has the option of jettisoning Fogg and Belisle if they don't perform well. Reds fans are certainly excited about the youngsters, and as I said this morning, this could end up being the best one through five rotations in the NL. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM
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March 16, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Houston Astros
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Houston Astros. Their starters posted a 4.71 ERA in 2007, tenth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Roy Oswalt
Once again, the Astros face the problem of a shallow rotation. Oswalt is great, but there's really nothing behind him. The biggest positive for the back four of the rotation is their walk rate. It's predicted to be 3.1 per nine, not bad at all. The rotation, however, is hittable, with Williams and Sampson allowing a number of home runs on top of that. With the projection for just over 700 innings from this group, the Astros are going to need to depend on other starters as well. With pitchers like Shawn Chacon as backups, 2008 does not look fruitful for the Astros starters. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM
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March 15, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Detroit Tigers
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Detroit Tigers. Their starters posted a 4.68 ERA in 2007, ninth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Justin Verlander
The Tigers rotation projects to be very consistent one through five. If indeed, all five starters post ERAs under 4.50, the Tigers will win lots of games. Their lineup is likely to score over 5.5 runs per game. The rotation also projects to a high number of innings, meaning they'll need little help from sixth and seventh starters barring injuries. One thing I like about this staff is that project to allow just 1.0 HR per nine innings. While Verlander and Bonderman are the only two with excellent strikeout and walk numbers, all five do a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM
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March 13, 2008
Rotation Evalutation, Colorado Rockies
Permalink Baseball Historians of the Baseball Book Blog donated $50 or more and dedicates this post to his son Devin. The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Colorado Rockies. Their starters posted a 4.58 ERA in 2007, ninth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Jeff Francis
A 4.46 ERA for the Rockies starters wouldn't be bad given their ball park. If Franklin Morales can post that ERA over 160 innings, it will even be better. Morales's 462 strikeouts and 24 home runs in 428 minor league innings bodes well for a successful major league career. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much depth to the rotation this year, with Kip Wells, Ramon Ortiz and Mark Redman going at the back of the pack. Previous posts in this series:
Correction: Fixed the league. The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM
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March 11, 2008
Not Enough Pitchers
Permalink The Marlins are going to start the season with a four man rotation: Because of some quirks in the early regular season, the Florida Marlins are leaning towards utilizing a 4-man rotation for the short-term; because of of-days on April 3 and 8, the team will probably not need a fifth starter until April 13. Which could be a good thing for the Marlins as 2 of their projected 4 starters are nursing minor injuries; the 2 pitchers in question, Scott Olsen and Sergio Mitre, may not be ready for the beginning of the 2008 season as Olsen is recovering from left shoulder tendinitis and Mitre is struggling with tightness in his right forearm muscle. I actually think this is a good strategy whenever a team has a day off. The Red Sox, Yankees and other teams with youngsters they'd like to limit should especially think about this. Since both teams are likely to have two youngsters in the rotation, skipping one of them every time there's a day off is a safe way to limit their innings. The veterans in the rotation can handle pitching the whole year on four days rest. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM
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Rotation Evaluation, New York Yankees
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the New York Yankees. Their starters posted a 4.57 ERA in 2007, eighth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. I'm actually going against the depth chart here, as they have Joba Chamberlain ahead of Ian Kennedy in the rotation, and it really looks like Joba will be in the bullpen. 
Phil Hughes
The Yankees finishing eighth in starters ERA in 2007 is impressive given their rough start to the season. It seemed in April every starter they sent to the mound was injured or got bombed. This is a very tough rotation to call for 2008. Pettitte's and Wang's number look about right, although I suspect both will top 200 innings this year. The other three are question marks, however. Mike Mussina's strikeout rate fell off the table last year, and in three of the last four seasons posted ERAs over 4.00. The three young pitchers hold lots of promise, but there's a huge difference between promise and production. My guess is that they find four good starters among these five and Chamberlain. I'd also bet the odd man out eventually is Mussina. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM
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March 10, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Milwaukee Brewers
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. Their starters posted a 4.55 ERA in 2007, eighth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Yovani Gallardo
The success of the Brewers rotation in 2008 depends on the pitchers with low innings projections staying in the rotation the whole year. Suppan and Bush are capable of giving the team lots of innings, but their ERAs leave something to be desired. Sheets and Gallardo should be one and two in this rotation, but Yovani is returning from knee surgery and Sheets's injury history makes him doubtful for 200 innings. Capuano and Vargas may end up getting a lot of starters innings, and both posted ERAs over 5.00 in 2007. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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March 08, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Chicago White Sox
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Chicago White Sox. Their starters posted a 4.47 ERA in 2007, seventh in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
John Danks
In 2007, the White Sox were only one of two teams to receive 1000 innings from their starters, the other being the Cleveland Indians. With the departure of Jon Garland (who projects to about 100 more innings than Floyd with a much better ERA), that appears unlikely this season. That trade, as far as the pitching is concerned, hurts the White Sox in two dimensions. But John Danks holds the potential to make up for the loss of Garland. He showed in the minors the ability to be a high strikeout, low walk pitcher. With a year of big league experience under his belt, we could see an improvement even greater than what Marcel predicts. Given that the White Sox play in the second best ballpark for scoring over the last three years, just getting the staff's ERA below 4.50 should give them a good chance of winning. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM
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March 07, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Atlanta Braves
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Atlanta Braves. Their starters posted a 4.45 ERA in 2007, seventh in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Jair Jurrjens
I'll note there are differences of opinion on this rotation. The MLB.com depth chart puts Hampton in the top five and Jurrjens as the spot starter. Given Hampton's fragile medical condition the last few years, I'm guessing he starts the season in the rotation but Jurrjens gets a lot of starts also. The Braves rotation improves not so much from adding Glavine, but from moving out high ERA pitchers like Buddy Carlyle and Kyle Davies. The yle-less rotation looks to save the Braves about 0.4 runs per nine innings pitched. With Hampton in the rotation, it could be one of the oldest of the last fifty years. My latest SportingNews.com column explains what that's not a bad thing. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM
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March 06, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Los Angeles Dodgers
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their starters posted a 4.43 ERA in 2007, sixth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Since Marcel did not rate Kuroda, I used his PECOTA projection. 
Hiroki Kuroda
This projects to be an extremely solid rotation. Last season, the Dodgers starters fell well short of six innings per start, but if Schmidt is healthy and Billingsley gives them a full season, this starting staff will get much closer to that mark. The big question mark here is Kuroda. Do you get Matsuzaka or Igawa? My guess is that his projection is a bit optimistic. Still, Penny and Lowe are capable of out performing their predictions, and if Billingsley gives them 160 innings at that level, the Dodgers could end up leading the NL in starters ERA in 2008. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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March 04, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, New York Mets
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the New York Mets. Their starters posted 4.40 ERA in 2007, fifth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Johan Santana
The addition of Johan Santana to the rotation gives the Mets a boost. The rotation threw 940 1/3 innings last year, and a 0.3 plus reduction in earned runs allowed should be good for three wins. That would have been enough to put the Mets in the playoffs last year. Correction: Looks like I used Livan's projection instead of Orlando's.
New York's starting staff, especially if Pedro is indeed healthy, should be among the best in the NL this season. Remember, Marcel doesn't take into account parks or leagues. Santana's predicted ERA is likely on the high end of his range. Previous posts in this series:
Correction: I meant Orlando, not Livan Hernandez. Sorry about the mixup. My head doesn't seem to be on straight this morning. The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM
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March 03, 2008
Ending Up Young
Permalink Might the Giants end up with an infield of Ortmeier, Denker, Frandsen and Velez? If they can learn to play competent defense, I think the pitching staff would welcome the increased offense that group is likely to bring to the team. The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM
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Rotation Evaluation, Minnesota Twins
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Minnesota Twins. Their starters posted 4.33 ERA in 2007, sixth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Francisco Liriano Liriano shows his violent delivery in the photo to the right. This made him effective but also blew out his arm.
Like the Athletics, this is a rotation in flux. The Twins are depending on an injured ace to return to form and a group of very young pitcher to mature into a solid unit. Unlike the Athletics, however, the Twins hired a veteran pitcher, Livan Hernandez, to take up some of the innings slack. Still, this rotation goes into the season with four question marks and an older pitcher who will give them innings but not necessarily good innings. I expect the rise the Twins starter's ERA to be real this season. The good news is that the four youngsters project to post good strikeout and very good walk numbers. Keeping free passes at a minimum is the hallmark of the Twins organization. If these inexperienced starters can execute that game plan, they'll be in good shape eventually. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM
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March 02, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Oakland Athletics
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Oakland Athletics. Their starters posted 4.29 ERA in 2007, fifth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Marcel does not have a prediction for Gio Gonzalez, so I went with his PECOTA. 
Rich Harden
This is a rotation in flux. The most optimistic outlook is that both Harden and Duchscherer recover from their injuries and give the Athletics 160 innings at those ERA levels. Given that Harden hasn't qualified for the ERA title since 2004, I don't think Oakland wants to push him beyond that level. With Duchsherer coming out of the pen, the A's won't stretch him too much either. I expect to see a lot of starts by a lot of rookies this season as Oakland tries to figure out what their rotation of the future looks like. I'd put that 4.24 ERA at the optimistic end of the projection. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM
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March 01, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Toronto Blue Jays
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. Their starters posted 4.24 ERA in 2007, fourth in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Jesse Litsch
The Blue Jays are very much like the Giants from the previous post. The staff looks very strong, but because many of them are young, they're not predicted to pitch that many innings. Due to his time on the DL the last few years, Burnett doesn't project very high in innings, either. The do have the experienced Gustavo Chacin waiting in the wings to cover those extra starts, and he projects to a 4.61 ERA. This might prove to be the best rotation in the American League if they stay healthy. I'm a bit wary of the low ERA projected for Litsch. His strike out rate projects at 5.3 per nine innings, pretty near the low end for successful pitchers. He'll need the Blue Jays defenders on their toes to achieve an ERA below 4.00. Previous posts in this series:
The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:16 PM
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February 29, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, San Francisco Giants
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the San Francisco Giants. Their starters posted 4.24 ERA in 2007, fourth in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Matt Cain
The Giants rotation is going to be the strength of the team this year. They need to find about 240 more innings, however. Given the predictions for the top four, you can only expect about 100 more innings there, bringing each of them close to 200 innings. The fifth starter slot, given the poor offense on this team, is going to be a black hole for wins. Still the top four post excellent ERAs, and they'll need every run they save if this team is going to compete in the NL West this season. The Giants could end up paying $18 million for a fourth starter. Previous posts in this series: Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM
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February 28, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Arizona Diamondbacks
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their starters posted 4.23 ERA in 2007, third in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Dan Haren
The big story over the winter was the acquisition of Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks to give Arizona the best 1-2 punch in the majors, although at this point Santana and Pedro might give them a run for their money. Randy Johnson is a big question mark. The performance list here would not surprise me, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he posted sixty more innings than projected with a lower ERA. I suspect Micah Owings, in his second big league season would show some improvement over these numbers, especially in innings pitched. This is going to be a very good rotation.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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February 27, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the LAnaheim Angels. Their starters posted 4.22 ERA in 2007, third in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Kelvim Escobar
Escobar is injured and Santana is slotted to start the season as the team's fifth starter. However, since Escobar is due back in May, I decided to write him and go with the better Angels rotation. That projection for Kelvim is likely a bit optimistic at this point, at least in terms of innings. Still, the Angels have to be very happy that they project to send three starters to the mound with ERAs under 4.00. Unlike the other teams in the study so far, the Angels have fewer innings to distribute to other starters this season. With Santana the swing man, the team is in very good shape, especially if they can spot start Ervin in Anaheim where he's been great. (If Santana is the fifth starter, the projection is for 807 innings, 367 ER, and a 4.09 ERA. Still very good.) Previous posts in this series: Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM
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February 26, 2008
Rounding Up the West
Permalink The Baseball Analysts talk to Jon Weisman and Russ Oates about how the NL West shakes out this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM
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Rotation Evaluation, Boston Red Sox
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Boston Red Sox. Their starters posted 4.21 ERA in 2007, second in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.  Clay Buchholz
Looking at the predicted innings it becomes clear why the Red Sox signed Schilling for one more year and then inked Bartolo Colon to replace Curt. The Red Sox by this calculation are about 300 innings short of six innings per start. If things work out well, 200 of those come from healthy seasons from Buchholz and Lester, which would leave about one hundred inning for Julien Tavarez or a recovered Curt Schilling. But if there is a significant injury, then Colon can step in, or someone else from the Red Sox minor league system. Boston did well last season with their replacement pitchers. Normally, when you go beyond your fifth starter it's to a pitcher not really that good. The young guns the Red Sox brought in, Lester, Gabbard and Buchholz all posted better ERAs than Julien Tavarez. With Gabbard gone and Buchholz and Lester in the rotation, there may not be as much depth as last season. So if the Sox can get at least 162 innings each out of their youngsters, they'll be in very good shape. Previous posts in this series: Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM
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February 25, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, Chicago Cubs
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Chicago Cubs. Their starters posted 4.19 ERA in 2007, second in the National League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Ted Lilly
Note that Lilly is predicted to see his ERA rise half a run after a career year in 2007. Marquis will likely show a rise as well. Zambrano makes up for that a little bit with his ERA dropping by 0.2 runs. The wild card here is Dempster who hasn't started since 2003. At that time, however, he did post three seasons with over 200 innings. I'm guessing he's more likely to pitch 160 innings if he lasts in the rotation, leaving the Cubs to cover only about 100 innings with other starters. Even with the rise in ERA by Lilly and Marquis, this looks to be good rotation. If Lilly matured and his 2007 performance represents a real improvement, the Cubs will once again trot out one of the best starting staffs in the majors. Previous posts in this series: Posted by StatsGuru at 03:44 PM
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Rotation Evaluation, Cleveland Indians
Permalink The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Cleveland Indians. Their starters posted 4.19 ERA in 2007, second in the majors and best in the American League. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Fausto Carmona
Cleveland starters pitched 1021 1/3 innings in 2007, the most in the majors. With these projections, they're about 200 innings short of averaging six per start. If Laffey earns the fifth slot, he'll probably see a lot more than the 85 innings projected above. Standing in the wings is Cliff Lee, coming off a very bad season but capable to absorbing needed innings for the rotation. The person to watch, of course, is Carmona. He had a huge jump in innings from 2006 to 2007, often a sign that a pitcher is going to break down. In that case, the 162 innings projected for Fausto may be high. Luckily for Cleveland, they own a very good bullpen, so they can afford to cut back on innings from the starters and still do well. Update: Previous posts in this series: Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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February 24, 2008
Rotation Evaluation, San Diego Padres
Permalink This is the start of a new series to look at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections. The series kicks off with the San Diego Padres. Their starters posted the lowest ERA in the majors in 2007, 4.11. Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. 
Justin Germano
The squad posts a very good ERA, but falls very short of the number of innings needed from a starting staff. Using six innings per start as a benchmark, teams should aim for 972 innings from their starters. The Padres managed just 935 in 2007. That means they need to find about 200 innings. Some of those might come from Chris Young having a healthy season, and Justin Germano pitching a full year. No doubt, San Diego would like to see some of those come from a healthy Mark Prior. Given the Padres great bullpen, however, they can afford to fall a bit short of the 972 mark, as they did in 2007. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 AM
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February 21, 2008
Teamwork in Texas
Permalink Via Lone Star Ball, the Rangers are coming together as a team. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:26 PM
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February 17, 2008
Cubs Criticism
Permalink Patrick Cassidy finishes his series on what's wrong with the Cubs: In the years since 1984 there has not been much evidence of a determined commitment to winning baseball on the part of the Cubs owner. And one has to wonder if that is not because the team is so profitable anyway. The whole article is a good read, leading me to believe the Cubs are really the Momma bears; too small (in talent) instead of just right. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 PM
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Run Predictions
Permalink Since the series on predicting team runs per game using Marcel the Monkey projections is finished, I wanted to summarize the results. This table contains the runs per game for each team based on the likely starting lineup.
At the end of the year, we'll revisit these numbers to see how well they worked. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM
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February 13, 2008
Older Immaturity
Permalink Matt Treanor and Kevin Gregg discuss problems in the Marlins clubhouse during 2007. ''It's the understanding of the seriousness of what we're doing here. They're having a good time, and that's what we want to do, but there's a fine line that has to be drawn, and sometimes, we went under that line of where we needed to be -- before, during and after games,'' said Gregg, who obviously won't publicly identify line-crossers. Funny, the 2007 team was a year older than the 2006 team that actually competed for the wild card. Maybe firing Girardi wasn't such a good idea. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 AM
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February 10, 2008
After Bedard
Permalink Rick Mases sums up the near future of the Orioles, and why it's a good thing: Friday was one of the few days in the franchise's recent history when -- regardless of what Bedard thinks -- they were not taking steps backward. They're going to be Cleveland 2002. Remember, however, that out of that team rose the good Cleveland teams of two of the last three seasons. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 AM
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February 08, 2008
Team Offense, Washington Nationals
Permalink We finish the look at team offenses for 2008 with the Washington Nationals. 
Wily Mo Pena In 2007, the Nationals scored 4.15 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The numbers for pitchers are based on the team averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:
That looks like a decent improvement for the Nationals. A full season of Wily Mo Pena in left, Milledge in center, and a bounce back from Zimmerman should make this a better scoring year for the Nationals. Note, too that Nick Johnson projects to a much better season than Dmitri Young. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:34 PM
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Mariner Misgivings
Permalink U.S.S. Mariner doesn't believe the Bedard trade will work out well: It's more important this season, though. The M's have decided they're going to take a shot at the division title and are making a potentially huge long-term sacrifice for a short-term gain. It's the result of their assessment of the team's potential this season. If they're wrong, they've done themselves wrong. If they're right, the rewards for getting the team to the playoffs are huge. Teams do, however, get lucky, and the better team you put on the field, the more likely it is that positive luck will take you to the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 PM
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Team Offense, San Francisco Giants
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the San Francisco Giants. 
Aaron Rowand In 2007, the Giants scored 4.22 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The numbers for pitchers are based on the team averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:
This going to be a very sad year for the Giants offense. Even with Bonds in 2007 they posted the second lowest runs per game in the majors. Not one person in the starting lineup is projected to obtain an OPS of .800. No one looks to get on over 35% of the time, and only one player is projected to slug over .450. It's really sad to see once good offensive players like Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham fall apart like this. The Giants really need to blow up this lineup and start over. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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February 07, 2008
Team Offense, Chicago White Sox
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Chicago White Sox. 
Josh Fields In 2007, the White Sox scored 4.28 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
That's a huge improvement for the White Sox. A lot of that comes from putting Swisher and Cabrera in center and at short. Health, however, is a big factor for the White Sox. If they can keep Dye, Thome, and Konerko healthy, they can get a lot of power out of the middle of the lineup. None of them are young men any more, however. This also assumes they find a way to keep both Crede and Fields in the lineup. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM
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Team Offense, Kansas City Royals
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Kansas City Royals. 
Billy Butler keeps his eye on the ball. In 2007, the Royals scored 4.36 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
That looks like a nice improvement over last season. If the lineup listed at CBSSportsline really is the one Hillman is thinking of using, it's very close to the optimum as calculated by this program. I'm impressed that he recognizes that Grudzielanek is not a top of the order hitter. I'm not sure how much Guillen helps them in rightfield. The Royals added some power at the position, but there's an offsetting loss of OBA compared to 2007 rightfielders. Still, with very little change, the team is moving in the right direction. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM
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February 06, 2008
Team Offense, Arizona Diamondbacks
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Chris Young In 2007, the Diamondbacks scored 4.40 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For the pitchers, I used the team's 2007 averages for the position. The lineups rate as follows:
This is a modest improvement, mostly from the young players maturing a little more. If the coaches can somehow get Chris Young to bring his OBA up without sacrificing power, this could be a very good lineup. I sill like this offense long term. As they reach their peak performance years, I suspect they'll be a force in the NL. Combined with a good pitching staff, the Diamondbacks constructing a long term winner. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:05 PM
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February 05, 2008
Team Offense, Minnesota Twins
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Minnesota Twins. 
Joe Mauer In 2007, the Twins scored 4.43 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
It speaks to just how badly the Twins offense played last year that this lineup is predicted to outscore the 2007 team. Adam Everett may turn out to be the worst everyday offensive player in the AL this season. Gomez is predicted to fall short of Torii's Hunter's numbers. But there is improvement at catcher, third base, and the other two outfield spots. Too bad they didn't keep Santana to go along with the improved offense. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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February 04, 2008
Team Offense, Houston Astros
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Houston Astros. 
Hunter Pence In 2007, the Astros scored 4.46 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:
The Astros look like they'll put a pretty good lineup on the field if their hitter live up to these expectations. Matusi should use far fewer outs than Craig Biggio. While Matsui isn't an offensive force by any means, he'll be about 50 points better in terms of OBA. Towles projects to impressive numbers, but even if he falls short of the predicted OBA and slugging percentage, he should be an improvement over Ausmus. Even Berkman rebounds after a bit of an off year. Maybe the obituaries for the Astros are being written a little too early. The lineup used is from CBSSportsline. I would bat Pence second and move Matsui down to the bottom of the order. The lineup I would use would score 4.91 runs per game. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM
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Team Offense, Pittsbugh Pirates
Permalink Correction: I had LaRoche's slugging percentage wrong in the original post. I've updated based on the correct slugging percentage. We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. 
Jason Bay In 2007, the Pirates scored 4.47 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:
Standing pat caused the Pirates to project to stay even with 2007, despite the Marcels showing a big rebound in Jason Bay's batting averages. The overall team OBA isn't bad. The NL average in 2007 was .334, and most players in the lineup are right around that. There's no power to back it up, however. This is an offense that does an okay job of putting men on base, but does very little to move them around with power. I wonder if Barry Bonds would come back to Pittsburgh? That's what used to happen to old sluggers. Ruth went back to Boston, Aaron to Milwaukee, and Mays to New York. From their history, Bonds probably wouldn't play in Pittsburgh again, but you never know. The Pirates could spend a lot on a one year deal and add a great deal of offense to the team without mortgaging the future. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM
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February 03, 2008
Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the St. Louis Cardinals. 
Albert Pujols In 2007, the Cardinals scored 4.48 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. Tango did not project Brian Barton, so I used the newly released PECOTA averages. The lineups rate as follows:
The middle of the order, slots two through five look very good. A squad can generate surprisingly good offense by bunching four strong hitters together. The team, however, is very weak up the middle offensively. I'm somewhat surprised PECOTA rated Barton so low, since he's posted stellar OBAs throughout his minor league career. The Cardinals may get a boost from him living up to his minor league numbers. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM
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February 02, 2008
Team Offense, Los Angeles Dodgers
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 
James Loney In 2007, the Dodgers scored 4.54 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:
The Dodgers managed to improve, mostly by getting rid of Luis Gonzalez and giving a full time job to James Loney. But the Dodgers have choices in constructing their lineup. The above represents the "old" lineup, including Pierre and Garciaparra as every day players. A young lineup, replacing those two with Ethier and LaRoche yields the following:
Playing the youngsters increases scoring by about 0.2 runs per game, or about 32 runs over a season. That's three wins. Given the close nature of the NL races the last few years, three wins could be huge. However, it's tough to sit players who are earning the big bucks.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM
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February 01, 2008
Team Offense, San Diego Padres
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the San Deigo Padres.
Kahlil Greene In 2007, the Padres scored 4.55 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the team pitcher averages from 2007. The lineups rate as follows:
For all intents and purposes, the Padres stood pat with their offense. They should improve at second base, making up for any fall off in the outfield. Once again, however, this team is depending on great pitching in a low scoring ballpark to put wins on the board. Greene continues to be a problem. PETCO Park really kills his numbers. He's a perfectly fine hitter for a middle infielder on the road, but at home he's Mark Belanger in a bad year. He probably should be batting 8th at home. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM
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January 31, 2008
Team Offense, Oakland Athletics
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Oakland Athletics. 
Daric Barton In 2007, the Athletics scored 4.57 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. Tango did not project Carlos Gonzalez, and I couldn't find another projection, so I just took about 20 points off his career minor league numbers. The lineups rate as follows:
I wasn't expecting the lineup to look that good. Maybe Lew Wolff wasn't being overly optimistic. Putting Cust, Buck and Barton together in the middle of the lineup appears to have the possibility to generate a lot of offense. Looking at these projections, it's also clear how much letting Tejada go hurt this team. At the time Beane made the right move, as it looked like Chavez would be the better player. Injuries, however, sapped Eric of his offense, and Bobby Crosby turned out to be a dud as a hitter at shortstop. If those two could put up decent numbers, this would be a very good offense. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM
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Team Offense, Chicago Cubs
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Chicago Cubs. 
Geovany Soto In 2007, the Cubs scored 4.64 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the 2007 Cubs pitchers averages. Tango did not project Fukudome, so I used his ZIPS prediction instead. The lineups rate as follows:
It looks like the Cubs get a nice offensive boost in 2008. Not only does Fukudome help set the table, Geovany Soto may not last long in the number eight spot. That's a great prediction for the catcher, and if he lives up to that, the Cubs pitchers can count on much better run support in this season. I'll have to go back and look, but this looks like one of the biggest differences between the best lineup and the likely lineup. Mostly it comes from using two projected power hitters at the top and bottom of the lineup, when they should really be in the middle. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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January 30, 2008
Standing Pat
Permalink Purple Row worries that the Rockies are keeping the status quo while the rest of their league rivals are improving: We've now seen three of the four other teams in that 88-90 win tier make upgrades this offseason, two significantly, as well as three of the four (Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers) in the 82-85 win range make enough upgrades to be considered real threats. I don't buy the Braves right now and I believe that the Padres are going to be heading south this season. Our own chances right now seem to hinge on keeping the Dodgers at bay and hoping that the Diamondbacks players disappoint while ours don't. I think we've got an okay shot at those things happening but we've still got to be considered underdogs right now. I would have loved to see a more certain upgrade to our team this winter to help us keep up the pace for 2008, and I hope the gamble to sacrifice that for even better shots in 2009 and beyond pays off. A number of the players on the squad are either at peak or on the up-sloping side of the curve. Colorado is depending on that to improve the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 AM
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Team Offense, Toronto Blue Jays
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Toronto Blue Jays. 
David Eckstein In 2007, the Blue Jays scored 4.65 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
Toronto is another team where the lineup is so balanced it doesn't really matter what lineup they use. They show no projected extremes in either OBA or slugging percentage. The two people with low OBAs, Lind and Wells both bring some power to the table. It's a solid, if not spectacular lineup one through nine. The big offensive boost comes at shortstop, where David Eckstein replaces John McDonald. Last year's starter projected to a .295 OBA this season. Eckstein promises to spend a lot fewer outs. Like the Orioles and Rays in the two previous posts in this series, the Blue Jays look like they'll have an improved offense in 2008. Despite that, they are way behind the Yankees and Red Sox in this category. To compete in the division these teams are going to need outstanding pitching. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM
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January 29, 2008
Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Baltimore Orioles. 
Luke Scott In 2007, the Orioles scored 4.67 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
This didn't look like a very strong lineup to me as I entered the stats. They certainly lack a big bopper. But everyone except Payton is at or above league average for OBA. When players get on base like that, even though there are no extremes, they tend to produce above average offense. The Luke Scott deal looks like a good one, as he's projected to be better than Markakis. If that holds, and Roberts stays, the top of the lineup should produce a decent amount of runs. The Orioles might turn out to be better than people expect. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:24 PM
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Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Tampa Bay Rays. 
Evan Longoria In 2007, the Rays scored 4.83 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. Marcels do not predict players who did not play in the major leagues, so I used Evan Longoria's projection from The Bill James Baseball Handbook 2008. The lineups rate as follows:
Wow, that's quite a jump! If Longoria lives up to that kind of power, I can see the increase happening. It also depends, however, on Pena's 2007 performance being sustainable. The other boost comes from Jason Bartlett. Not only does he bring a better glove to the infield, he's projected to increase OBA at shortstop by 26 points. This is another example of the Rays as a team ready to gel. If they can get their young pitching and their offense to hit stride together, this is going to be a scary team. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM
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January 28, 2008
Team Offense, Cincinnati Reds
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Cincinnati Reds. 
Ken Griffey, Jr. In 2007, the Reds scored 4.83 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the 2007 Reds pitchers averages. The lineups rate as follows:
I was surprised to see the Reds drop so far from their 2007 level. One big reason is the falloff by Ken Griffey, Jr. Ken's OBA bounced back from a poor .316 in 2006 to a very good .372 in 2007. The Marcels have him falling off again. Adam Dunn falls off a bit as well, but nothing that shouldn't be expected. He's still the best hitter on the team. Young Joey Votto looks like he's going to put up good numbers as well. Otherwise, the Reds did nothing to improve the offense. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:38 PM
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Team Offense, Florida Marlins
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Florida Marlins. This one should be interesting since they lost a huge hitter in Miguel Cabrera. 
Cameron Maybin In 2007, the Marlins scored 4.88 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the 2007 Marlins pitchers averages. The lineups rate as follows:
So compared to the likely lineup, the Marlins are looking at a drop of 39 runs, or about four games. That may not seem like much for a superstar, but in fact it's about right. It's unusual for a player to make more than a five game difference in a team's won-lost record all by himself. There's a chance that Maybin will perform better than his projection, which would cut that deficit even more. No matter how well Maybin hits, don't expect a better offense from the Marlins in 2008 than they produced in 2007. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM
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January 27, 2008
Team Offense, Seattle Mariners
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Seattle Mariners. 
Adam Jones In 2007, the Mariners scored 4.90 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
For all the talk of Adam Jones, he doesn't project to be much of a savior in 2008. The Bill James projections put Jones's slugging percentage higher, at .459. But if Jones can only post an OBA in the .320s at age 22, I'd give him up for Bedard. No one in the lineup projects to a superstar offensively. Not one batters combines a high OBA and a high slugging percentage. It strikes me that one more great batter in this lineup would make a great difference. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM
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Team Offense, Milwaukee Brewers
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Milwaukee Brewers. 
Corey Hart In 2007, the Brewers scored 4.94 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the 2007 Brewers pitchers averages. The lineups rate as follows:
Milwuakee hasn't improved their offense, but they will still be up with the best in the NL. The heart of the order features three .500 sluggers, the oldest Corey Hart still in the early stages of his prime years. This should be superb power trio for the next five years at least. To add to that, Marcels show Hall's power returning after an off year in 2007. This is a team capable of moving runners a long way with long hits. Even the pitchers slug over .200! Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM
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January 26, 2008
Team Offense, New York Mets
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the New York Mets. 
David Wright In 2007, the Mets scored 4.96 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For pitchers, I used the 2007 Mets pitchers averages. The lineups rate as follows:
New York remains a good offense. The interesting thing is that David Wright emerges as the only offensive superstar on the team. Every one else, with the exception of Brian Schneider, puts up good numbers. The NL OBA/Slug in 2007 was .334/.423. Seven of the Mets top that OBA, while six slug better than average. If the Mets want to move up offensively, however, they need Beltran or Delgado to perform at their highest levels. Both are capable of OBAs in the high .300s and slugging percentages over .500. That would give the team a lot more oomph behind Wright. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM
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January 25, 2008
Team Offense, Atlanta Braves
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Atlanta Braves. 
Yunel Escobar In 2007, the Braves scored 5.00 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
The Braves get a full year of Yunel Escobar and Mark Teixeira, which helps push the offense up. I addition, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur are expected to improve. Interestingly, the team replaced Andruw Jones with Mark Kotsay, who is about as bad offensively as Jones was in 2007. They're just not paying him a ton of money. They should have no problems scoring runs with six very good hitters and a good power hitter in Jeff Francoeur. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM
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January 24, 2008
Team Offense, Cleveland Indians
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Cleveland Indians. 
Asbrubal Cabrera In 2007, the Indians scored 5.01 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
That's a huge boost for a team that basically stood pat over the winter. One big boost will be Asdrubal Cabrera. Josh Barfield was really terrible in 2007, and the Indians took off after inserting Cabrera into the lineup. Another big boost comes from Hafner returning to his former self after a down season and a continued power increase from Grady Sizemore. Scoring 5.6 runs per game would have landed the Indians in second place in the majors in 2007. Also, their likely lineup is even with Detroit's likely lineup. This should be a great division fight between the Tigers and the Indians this summer. Previous teams covered in the series:
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM
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Team Offenses, Texas Rangers
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Texas Rangers. 
Ian Kinsler In 2007, the Rangers scored 5.04 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
The Rangers send out a lineup very different from the one that started the 2007 season. Gone are Kenny Lofton, Mark Teixeira and Sammy Sosa. All in all, however, Texas did a good job of improving the team. Bradley (once he returns from suspension), Hamilton and Saltalamacchia all should help increase offense over the last season. Ian Kinsler is still at an age where his stats should be getting better. Things are looking up for the Texas batting order. I was unsure of what lineup Washington will use. Seeing how the players project, I'd probably flip Kinsler and Byrd. That would up the regular lineup to 5.31 runs per game. Previous teams covered in the series: Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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January 23, 2008
Team Offense, Los Angeles Angels
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the LAnaheim Angels. 
Garret Anderson In 2007, the Angels scored 5.07 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
The small difference between the worst and best lineups shows this is a very balanced team. Outside of Guerrero, no one is great, but there's not many bad players either. I could see the Angels doing better than these number if Aybar lives up to his minor league numbers. The other thing that would improve the Angels is giving up on Garret Anderson. A designated hitter should be able to hit better than a .320 OBA. The bottom line, however, is that the moves the Angels made are likely to improve the offense in 2008. Previous teams covered in the series: Posted by StatsGuru at 03:20 PM
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High Hopes
Permalink Kenny Williams believes that the White Sox will improve in 2008, because they played below expectations in 2007: ''One thing that is being underestimated is we had an awful lot of guys perform below their levels [last year]. We don't need them to perform above their level this year but at their level. Anyone that thinks you can anoint a division winner in January, you would be mistaken. We were anointed in '06, and you saw where that got us.'' The White Sox finished last in the AL in runs scored in 2007, despite playing in a good park for hitters. Given their ages, are Thome, Konerko and Dye likely to improve or play worse in 2008? When I get around to looking at the predictions for the White Sox offense, I'll try to remember to link back here. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM
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Team Offenses, Colorado Rockies
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Colorado Rockies.  Matt Holliday In 2007, the Rockies scored 5.28 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
That's a pretty big spread, due to the ability to make a very bad lineup with the pitcher's position and a low OBA catcher. I'm a bit surprised the given lineup does so poorly compared to the best lineup. I would guess stacking the best players at getting on base back to back would generate a lot of runs no matter where they go in the order. More importantly, the Marcels pull a number of hitters on this team back to their norms. Hawpe, Helton, Holliday and Taveras are all predicted to fall off vs. their 2007 performance. Still, the H-men are predicted to put up great seasons, and if the Rockies can get a .346 OBA out of Taveras they'll be happy. And 5.01 runs per game would still have been good for second place in the NL in 2007. Scoring runs shouldn't be the Rockies problem in 2008. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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January 22, 2008
Team Offenses, Boston Red Sox
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Boston Red Sox. 
Jacoby Ellsbury In 2007, the Red Sox scored 5.35 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
That's pretty impressive. Even the worst lineup shows improvement over the 2007 runs per game. The Red Sox did nothing over the winter to alter their offense. Giving Ellsbury a full time job, an expected improvement in Pedroia's OBA and overall improvement in the stats of Manny Ramirez, Julio Lugo, and J.D. Drew after off years makes a big difference. This very well be one instance when resting on your laurels was the right move. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:37 PM
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Team Offenses, Detroit Tigers
Permalink We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Detroit Tigers. In 2007, the Tigers scored 5.48 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows: 
Miguel Cabrera
The Tigers did a nice job of improving their offense this year. The worst lineup they could put on the field would finish third in the majors in 2007. However, this also shows how difficult it is to increase scoring. The lineup the team is likely to use is predicted to score 0.1 more runs per game, or about 16 runs more than last season. Part of that is Ordonez coming back to his averages after a career year and Gary Sheffield continuing to age. Dombrowski not only compensated for that loss, he actually improved the offense. With a team that good, it would have been easy to do nothing. The Tigers instead acquired a cornerstone in Cabrera that improves the team now, and likely makes Detroit an offensive power house in the future. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM
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January 21, 2008
Team Offenses, Phillies
Permalink Earlier today we looked at the how the Yankees offense might fare in 2008, and we'll continue with the team with the second highest runs per game from last year. In 2007, the Phillies scored 5.51 runs per game. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. For the pitcher's slot, I used the Phillies 2007 OBA and slugging percentage by hurlers The lineups rate as follows:
Shane Victorino
The team does only a tick better with Wes Helms playing third, so that means they should be an effective platoon. The best lineup here still beats Colorado's 5.28 runs per game from last year, and the given lineup's mark of 5.15 would rank second in 2007. The Phillies should once again have no problems scoring runs this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM
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Team Offenses
Permalink During this slow period of baseball news, I'd like to start looking at how team offense stack up for next season. I'm planning on going in order of the 2007 ranking in runs per game. We'll start with the Yankees. In 2007, the Yankees scored 5.98 runs per game, the highest rate in the majors. I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango.. Note that I'm using Giambi at first base despite the fact the Yankees are talking about platooning there. The lineups rate as follows:
That's a pretty narrow range, and reflects the depth of the lineup top to bottom. The worst OBAs in the starting nine are Damon and Cabrera at .350. The AL average OBA was .338 in 2007, giving the Yankees a lineup well above average. They look poised to lead the league in runs scored again.
Bobby Abreu
Substituting Betemit for Giambi lowers scoring a bit:
Betemit widens the spread between good and bad lineups, but doesn't hurt that much offensively, especially if you think he can make up the lost 17 runs with his glove at first. Now substitute Shelly Duncan:
A little better than Betemit. Even though Wilson and Shelly are not Giambi in terms of OBA and power, they still project to hit well. That gives the Yankees two players off the bench capable of getting on base at better than a league average clip. That's flexibility Joe Girardi should appreciate. Quite simply put, what every combination the Yankees settle on will be among the league leaders in runs scored. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM
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January 16, 2008
January Dodgers
Permalink Jon Weisman went to Dodger Stadium and reports back on what he heard in interviews with management and players. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 PM
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January 10, 2008
Shining Rays
Permalink I keep my eyes on John Sickels prospect lists, but I usually don't comment because I don't concentrate much on the minor leagues. John is the great resource there. However, the Rays list caught my attention. John list three A prospects. As the list go by, I see very few As. If you can down the Minor League Ball front page right now, the other organizations on the page have no one higher than A-. All those years of losing are finally paying off for Tampa Bay. I'm guessing they're going to challenge for a playoff spot sooner than we might think. Update: More here. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:53 PM
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Building a Foundation
Permalink Royals Authority likes the way Dayton Moore is building from the ground up. For example, not Moore's far east strategy: Right now, Kansas City really is the other side of the world from baseball in the Far East. Those guys know the West Coast and everyone knows the Yankees, Sox and Cubs, they don't know Kansas City from Amarillo. Read the whole thing for an excellent analysis of what's going on in KC. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM
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January 06, 2008
Perry on the Rays
Permalink Dayn Perry sees improvement on the Horizon for the Tampa Bay Rays, unless they take the Marlins route: More critically, the Rays, since they have so much young talent in place, are going to be faced with a cascade of salary escalation in the coming seasons. As all these young players head into their arbitration and free-agency seasons, the Rays will need to pay the going rates or else fall into a perpetual state of rebuilding. Already rumors have it that Tampa is open to trading Kazmir. Suffice it to say, doing so would be a mammoth mistake and a regrettable sign of things to come. The trick is to determine the three or four real stars on the team and sign them to long term contracts. That protects the Rays from the salary shock that comes when these players hit arbitration. Perry also points out the difficulty of competing in the AL East. There is a window of opportunity, however, as the Yankees and Red Sox both committed themselves to staying old offensively for the next couple of seasons at least. New York re-signed many of their free agent veterans, while Boston will have Ramirez, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell and Varitek making up their lineup for a while. As Arizona and Colorado showed in 2007, young teams can get good fast as they mature together. Tampa Bay needs to be ready to take advantage of this possibly brief opening to knock off the division leaders. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM
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January 04, 2008
Spinning Snakes
Permalink AZ Snakepit tries to convince us that Colorado was the lucky team in 2007. Basically, the 2007 Rockies were a .500 team who got insanely hot for a spell - but even so, required help from just about everyone else in the division to reach the playoffs. Sure, there is something to be said for making your own luck and riding it as far as possible [I would never claim the 2001 D-backs were the best team in baseball that year] - but when you get dealt a royal flush in poker, it doesn't make you a good player. If any one of the following had not unfolded exactly the way they did, the Rockies would have finished third, and we would probably not be having this conversation. I wonder if he forgot that Arizona was outscored by their opponents, while the Rockies outscored their competition by 102 runs, the largest difference in the NL. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:43 PM
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January 03, 2008
Future Plans
Permalink Purple Row looks how the Rockies and Diamondback might develop over the next decade, and see Colorado taking a longer term approach. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 AM
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December 31, 2007
Wild West
Permalink Chone Smith details why Angels fans should love the wild card. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM
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December 27, 2007
Top Ten List
Permalink I just love the title of this post. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM
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December 23, 2007
Keep or Trade
Permalink John Harper in the New York Daily News wonders if the Mets reluctance to trade Jose Reyes for Johan Santana is the right move: Baseball people say there is no doubt the Mets could still land Santana by including Jose Reyes in a trade offer, but GM Omar Minaya has repeatedly said he won't do so. Consider Reyes' career averages. Through 5/31/2006, Jose posted averages of .273/.305/.397 in 1422 AB. Over the next seven months, 6/1/2006 through 6/30/2007 those number jumped to .323/.387/.498 in 737 at bats. Over the last three months of 2007, however, they fell back down to .248/.313/.393 in 359 at bats. The question the Mets need to answer is what's the aberration. Was it the seven stellar months of hitting? Or was that Reyes maturing to his real skill level, and the last three months were just bad luck? I'm wary that Reyes is a superstar. His career number right now are .284/.330/.426, good for a middle infielder but nothing outstanding. If you can get Johan Santana for that, why not? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 AM
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December 21, 2007
Don't Mariners Need More Than a Paradox?
Permalink U.S.S. Mariner notes Seattle is building the offense and pitching on the same principles, expecting different results. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM
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December 16, 2007
Worried about the Wings
Permalink The Dan Haren trade worries Halos Heaven. Before you point out all of the trouble facing Tarp Town, what with its proclivity for injuries and/or Kotsay/Krosby deadweight, consider that if Billy Beane is within 5 games of first place in July, he can take on two months of payroll for just about any star rental, and could trade a host of these glamorous prospects for serious pennant race mojo. My guess is these worries are a bit misplaced for 2008, but should be taken seriously in 2009. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 PM
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Pirate Problems
Permalink Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke notes one problem with trying to rebuild the Pirates. The trade value of their major league players isn't very high: I'm not saying Huntington shouldn't be trying to remake the team. He should be and by all indications, that's exactly what he's trying to do. I'm just saying that not only is rebuilding a team difficult, the Pirates are in an especially dire place and it's probably worse than we think. We know all of the good sides of these players because we have see them as Pirate fans to have any shred of hope for the team. But if they were really as good as we imagine, wouldn't the Pirates be a whole lot better? On top of that, their minor leagues are not very good either. The Pirates don't have prospects to trade to bring in major league talent to help them win now. They don't have major league talent to bring in prospects to help them win in the future. The team is really starting from scratch. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 AM
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December 12, 2007
More Pitching
Permalink The Indians look for more pitching to neutralize the offensive advantage of the Tigers. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:53 PM
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December 09, 2007
Chaging the Cubs
Permalink Ivy Chat looks at how two deals might change the Cubs lineup: Brian Roberts a Cub? Kosuke Fukudome a Cub? Getting both of them would benefit the Cubs tremendously. They would solidify two weak spots on the team (second and right), allow Felix Pie to play center and bat eighth, and force Alfonso Soriano down to 5th or sixth. All that would be good. Soriano will not move down in the lineup. Unlike his time in Texas, Soriano is a big money player now, and they usually get what they want. Alfonso wants to lead off, will let that be known, and he'll get his way. Teams don't want a player making $18 million a year to be unhappy and unproductive. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM
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December 07, 2007
Radio Popularity
Permalink There's a great quote at FishStripes from the general manager of the radio station that broadcasts the Marlins games: 790 The Ticket general manager Howard Davis, whose station acquired Marlins rights, said the trade of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis ''doesn't give us any concern,'' cracking the Marlins ``weren't that popular with Cabrera and Dontrelle.'' Posted by StatsGuru at 12:04 PM
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December 06, 2007
Major League Farm Team
Permalink Greg Cote sums up the problem with the Marlins constantly abandoning expensive players: The problem is that the Marlins can claim to justify their course by pointing to the two World Series championships in only 15 years' existence, the latter, in 2003, with a team of young guys that blossomed en masse prior to then being sold piece-meal. I understood the 2005 fire sale. The Marlins did a good job of acquiring players for the future, much as Cleveland did in the early part of this decade. The Indians, however, when they find a good player, sign him long term so they don't lose the advantage gained from good drafts and good trades. The low costs gained by the 2005 fire sale allowed the Marlins to keep Willis and Cabrera long term and have them as part of the next developing championship team. Unfortunately for Florida fans, that team is the Tigers. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:12 PM
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December 05, 2007
Scoring the Tigers
Permalink Bilfer runs the numbers on the new Detroit Tigers lineup and likes what he sees. Even the worst ordering of players (Pudge leading off) would produce 5.601 runs per game. The best lineup you ask? That would be 5.970 runs per game. Even if Dontrelle Willis posts a 5.00 ERA, he can win with that kind of scoring. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM
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A Tale of Two Teams
Permalink Jayson Stark analyzes the Tigers-Marlins deal, contrasting the two teams. The Tigers? They're now an official baseball superpower. With the increase in baseball revenue, we're seeing more teams moving into the pay to win category. The Tigers join the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs and Angels as teams willing to go out and acquire the best players available. The Royals are making moves in that direction. Meanwhile, the Marlins team salary is likely to come in under $20 million. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM
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December 04, 2007
Pounding Heart
Permalink The Detroit Free Press compares the projected 2008 Tigers to 2003 and 2007. Detroit will put a fearsome middle of the order at the plate with Cabrera, Guillen, Sheffield and Ordonez. Granderson should be crossing home plate quite often next year. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM
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November 19, 2007
Fan Favorites
Permalink AZ Snakepit ranks the five best Diamondbacks games of the season. Beating the Giants is always good. Beating the Giants when scoring only once is priceless. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM
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November 18, 2007
Cleaning House
Permalink Metstradamus makes the case that the Mets are using Paul Lo Duca as a scapegoat: I have to say, in all of the dissecting and re-dissecting I've seen and made on September's collapse, well down on the list...if it's even on the list...is Paul Lo Duca's pitch calling. But that is the scapegoat that the Mets are selling us. I ask you, with all of the other deficiencies facing the Mets, is that fair? Because so far, that's what the Mets are telling us...they're telling us that everyone else on the Mets wants to win next season except Paul Lo Duca. Lo Duca's seasonal age in 2008 will be 36, and he's coming off a poor offensive season. That's reason enough to dump him. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 AM
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November 16, 2007
Waiting for the Angels
Permalink Andrew Koch ties the Athletics winter moves to the Angels: The A's offseason plans seemed to be resting on the Angels. If the Angels got Bonds and/or A-Rod, the A's would unload major leaguers for prospects and rebuild. If the Angels got neither, a possibility which is looking more and more likely, the A's would re-load, hope for a healthy 2008 and make another run at the AL West. Oakland needs to make up eighteen games on the Angels. That's not an easy task, unless they were to sign Bonds and A-Rod. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:36 AM
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November 14, 2007
Weak Up the Middle
Permalink Athletics Nation notes the problem the A's face at SS and CF. Rather than not having players at SS and CF, he has players that nobody else wants - and that with the possible exception (hopefully) of Denorfia, the A's shouldn't want either. Why didn't the A's go after Renteria? He wasn't terribly expensive and would be an upgrade at short. Then Oakland could let their two poor players at the position walk. As far as CF, maybe it's time to stop being so low cost. Why not sign Andruw Jones? Nico makes a point of saying the A's have payroll flexibility. Why not go after one of the free agent centerfielders, rather than enduring two more losing seasons? Update: More from Catfish Stew. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM
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November 05, 2007
Winged Salaries
Permalink Chronicle of the Lads examines the future of the Angels payroll to see if they can afford Alex Rodriguez. The answer appears to be yes. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 PM
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November 03, 2007
White Sox Planning
Permalink Kenny Williams has plans in place for the off season. Although the Sox's free-agent thrust has centered on Torii Hunter and Rowand, a thin market could cause the Sox to acquire more help through trades. Williams has a mixed record in his winter trades. The Podsednik deal helped bring them the championship, but the Thome and Danks deals are mixed. Thome's played great when he's played, but they never filled the gap left in centerfield. Neither McCarthy nor Danks pitched well in 2007, but time will tell on that one. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM
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November 02, 2007
Change in Status
Permalink Why the Yankees are now the underdogs. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM
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October 30, 2007
Still Getting it Wrong
Permalink Tom Haudricourt notes the Red Sox are moving into evil empire status. But his comparison of the Yankees and Red Sox forgets how the Yankees got to prominence: "If someone wants to compare us to the Yankees, based on winning and results, that's a compliment," said Epstein. "They set an incredible standard in the game for winning. If our name comes up in the same sentence, that's fantastic. Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Wang, Cano, Cabrera. Throw in Chamberlain and Hughes for next year. The Yankees are strong up the middle, and got there by developing players at those positions. The Red Sox were better this year because they did a better job of developing and trading for pitching. The Yankees farm system three years running did a perfectly good job of producing talent. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM
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October 29, 2007
Dare Not to be Stupid
Permalink Jon Wiesman at Dodger Thoughts notes the Dodgers can't hurt themselves by pursuing A-Rod, only by being stupid: So the debate isn't about pursuing Rodriguez or not. The debate isn't about whether LaRoche is a legitimate third-base prospect. The debate is about being stupid or not. He points out that the Dodgers can put together a lineup of young players and good veterans, if they just are willing to avoid a win now philosophy. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:59 PM
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Twins Payroll
Permalink Joe Christensen notes the Twins, after picking up Joe Nathan's option, have seven players under contract for a total of $30 million. That gives them about $70 million to fill out the other 18 spots. :-) Oh, I'm sorry, these are the Twins we're talking about, a team that plunked down $71 million for the team in 2007. If they raise payroll 10%, that would be about $78 million for the entire squad, or a bit over $2 million each. A good chunk of that money will go to Morneau, so they're going to need to bring in a good number of players near the minimum if they try to sign a big name. I guess they won't be hiring A-Rod. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:35 PM
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October 25, 2007
Hidden Power
Permalink Geoff at DuckSnorts notes the great power hitting teams of 2007 away from home. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 AM
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October 23, 2007
Wisconsin Hot Stove
Permalink Al Bethke leads a round table discussion of the Brewers at Al's Ramblings. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 AM
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October 21, 2007
Looking for Pitching
Permalink Despite a dismal year on offense, the Diamondbacks are looking to improve the team through pitching this offseason. That's due to the projection that the young hitters are going to get better. So although the Diamondbacks were last in the league in average and on-base percentage, General Manager Josh Byrnes said the focus this off-season most likely will be on pitching, namely starting pitching. Why not go for Santana? Young prospects, especially in the outfield, are what the Twins need. And if Johan decides he likes it in Arizona, the DBacks get to negotiate an extension before he becomes a free agent. Why not go for the best instead of another Doug Davis? Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 PM
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October 12, 2007
Gut, or Gut It Out?
Permalink River Ave. Blues looks at the choices facing the Yankees for 2008 and decides that gutting the team may be the best option. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:38 PM
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Transition to Favorites
Permalink I like that Jonathan Papelbon is willing to go where the management of the Red Sox won't: While owner John W. Henry acknowledges that his team's transition into a favorite's role is under way, the notion that the roles have been permanently reversed makes the front office uneasy. "To say we're no longer underdogs seems to be going too far," says club president Larry Lucchino, tempering annual expectations. "We're in the division where Goliath resides." And while the Yankees were beaten this week by the Indians, the Sox have too many painful Yankee memories from Octobers past to fully shed underdog status. Right now Boston has the better team and a good plan to sustain winning. Their farm system is producing talent and the front office does a decent job filling holes through trades and free agent signings. It time to make the Yankees worry about the Red Sox. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM
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October 11, 2007
Sustainability
Permalink Rox Girl makes an important point about the Rockies ability to sustain this team long term (emphasis added): The question of sustainability is important and it will be interesting to find out if the Rockies approach to this is clever or just misguided. You can see from recent drafts how they take players just a couple of skills away from being considered big time talents -yet because of these handicaps are overlooked by other teams and draft observers- and then stick them into the development pipeline to try and nurture that talent by their age 25 season, in some cases, Darren Clarke for instance, even later. The team has a much slower clock for its prospects than most, which allows them to get peak performance at a very low financial cost when they do succeed. In some cases, like Clint Barmes for instance, the shelf life can be pretty short for these guys once they get here. What one hopes happens is that the infusion of fans and money that comes with winning allows that process to shift. The teams can afford to sign better amateur players, and even the star free agent or two. The Rockies primed the pump. The next step is to keep the talent flowing. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:00 PM
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October 08, 2007
Diamondbacks in the Rough
Permalink AZ Snakepit argues that the Diamondbacks are good, not lucky. If the Diamondbacks were a 79-win team, as Pythagoras believes, this binomial calculator gives them only a 4.9% chance of reaching 90 wins. Item #2. Baseball Prospectus predicted a 7.0% chance of us sweeping the Cubs. Combining these two, the odds of both happening is one in 289. Really, there's a point at which blaming "luck" in the face of relentless evidence goes beyond stubborness, and begins to drift into idiocy. A good scientist, when the evidence piles up against them, will admit that their theory is flawed, and will begin to look around for a better theory. Jay, however, seems to feel that when the facts disagree with his theory, the facts must be disposed of. Blaming "luck" for an 11-game differential - especially two seasons after the same manager, for the same franchise, posted exactly the same improvement - is like continuing to play poker after your opponent gets three royal flushes in a row. There's a certain point beyond which it's time to check the deck. I've checked the deck, and there's nothing there that indicates this team is good. That doesn't mean they can't win. And it doesn't mean they can't continue to be lucky. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:02 PM
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October 02, 2007
Rockies Bullpen
Permalink One of the big reasons for the Rockies late season success was the pitching of the bullpen. They demonstrated last night just how good they are as the first six pitchers in did a very good job. The pitchers used in the first five innings of relief represent who we'll be seeing in the playoffs, and they combined for five innings, one run, no walks and four strikeouts. The pen is a definite positive going into the LDS. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM
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October 01, 2007
Beane Counting
Permalink Looking at the Beane Count, I was impressed at how well Oakland ranked, second in the American League. Their batters were great at drawing walks and their pitchers were great at preventing home runs. It seems if they can get a little more power from their batters and a little more control from their pitchers, they should be in better shape next season. Also, the Padres and Rockies are 1-2 in the National League, the Padres winning with better pitching. Unlike Arizona, Colorado was good this year, not just lucky. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM
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September 27, 2007
Bronx Envy
Permalink Mets fans appear to be a little jealous of the Yankees. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:28 PM
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September 26, 2007
Mirror Image
Permalink The Texas Rangers defeated the LAnaheim Angels today 16-2. The Rangers are sort of the opposite of the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the win today, the Rangers are 19 games under .500, but they only been outscored by 20 runs on the season. Arizona has been outscored by 15 runs, but they're 19 games over .500. It's as if someone sucked all the luck out of Arlington and sent it to Phoenix. Michael Young picked up three hits to reach 200 for the fifth year in a row. Gary Matthews left the game with an injured knee: Center fielder Gary Matthews came out with an irritated left knee after a running catch to end the first inning. The team said Matthews, who was playing his fifth game since missing 10 with a sprained right ankle, will be evaluated Friday in Oakland. The Angels may fall farther behind Boston and Cleveland in the race for best record in the AL. The Red Sox lead 5-4 in the top of the fifth. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM
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September 24, 2007
Sustainable Winning
Permalink The Angels celebrate 6-4-2's birthday: 
9.23.07; Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitchers with Scot Shields in the center celebrate after the Angels defeated the Seattle Mariners to clinch the Western Division Championship at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Rob later discusses the Angels future: Something I forgot to mention yesterday: with the victory yesterday, the Mariners have a winning season for the first time in four years. That's an important thing for their franchise, but what it also reminds me is that the 2002 Angels team came out of a division that had an improbable three 90-game winners. The Angels then were better prepared for their postseason run, perhaps; not that this M's squad is a bunch of patsies (or why a split at home?), but when the Angels' nearest competition is just a few games over .500, it doesn't speak well of the division. I suspect the M's will muddle along, though they're starting to get whispers of better prospects coming through their system, albeit at the lower levels. Next year, Oakland will be better, too, at least, that's what I suspect. Gene Autry could have seen this. He had the money and he owned the team at a time when things weren't as crazy. But Autry insisted on bringing in star power instead of developing great players, and most of the stars were on the downside of their careers. His front office never combined intelligent free-agent signings with a good farm system. It turns out winning would have drawn just as well if not better than a team full of fading stars. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 AM
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September 16, 2007
Pitching Well
Permalink The Cleveland Indians failed to knock a game off their magic number, losing 4-3 to the Royals. It's the eighth time in their last nine game that the Indians pitching staff held the opposition to four runs or less. The starters are doing very well, posting a 2.89 ERA in that span. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:14 PM
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September 14, 2007
Orioles a Mess
Permalink Despite the shutout victory last night, the Orioles are falling apart. Apart from the suspensions (it is now officially illegal to throw at the Red Sox), Miguel Tejada wants out: Asked whether he was OK with the fact that the club might want to get a look at some younger players, Tejada said, "It would be nice. Then I can go somewhere else next year. They have somebody that can play short. That would be nice for me." And Mazzone rippled the pitching staff: "They've been given an opportunity, and the majority of them have not responded," Mazzone said. "I think it's enabling us to see for a fact what kind of depth we really do have. Basically, there is no depth. They're giving us reasons to why they wouldn't fit in as opposed to why they would. So their star shortstop wants to leave and there's no depth to the pitching staff. Doesn't sound like this team is getting better any time soon. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM
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September 13, 2007
Lawlessness on the Bases
Permalink The Dodgers are stealing every base they can against the Padres tonight. Coming into the game, the Padres have allowed 163 stolen bases, only catching 19 batters. That means Padres opponents have almost a 90% success rate against the Padres. But it also shows you how meaningless those stolen bases are. Despite not stopping the running game, the Padres have the best ERA in the league by 0.3 runs. Basically, if the team doesn't give up hits, the stolen bases don't hurt that much. Tonight, however, they've allowed the hits to follow, and the Dodgers lead 6-0 in the fifth. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 PM
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September 12, 2007
Another Big Score
Permalink For the seventh time in their last twenty one games, the Baltimore Orioles allowed more than ten runs in a game. The Angels lead 16-6 in the eighth inning. You might think they are going for a record, but for the whole season they've only allowed ten runs or more fifteen times, including tonight. Tampa Bay played twenty two such games so far this season. With Baltimore, it's just another piece of their recent swoon. And while the Angels are winning big, they should be a bit concerned with Kelvim Escobar. He allowed six runs in 5 2/3 innings tonight, the third rough outing in a row for him. Over his last five appearance, he's only pitched well once, giving up a 6.43 ERA in that time. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 PM
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September 11, 2007
Starting Behind
Permalink The Mariners debacle continued last night as they lost for the fourteenth time in sixteen games, 9-3 to the Oakland Athletics. Horacio Ramirez didn't get out of the second in the shortest outing by a Mariner starter in that time. That's surprising see how poorly those starters pitched over this time. It was the fourth game in a row in which a starter allowed at least five runs, and overall during the streak, the Mariners starters are posting a 6.67 ERA. They're suffering whiplash by allowing over two home runs per nine innings, and by only striking out five per nine, the opposition batting average is up to .326. Unlike the Diamondbacks, the bullpen is even worse, but that's what happens when they're called on for over three innings a game night after night. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM
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Diamondbacks Drama
Permalink The Diamondbacks won another game with a comeback last night. A quick recap of how their current six-game win streak has transpired. First, they beat Padres co-aces Chris Young and Jake Peavy on consecutive nights last week, stunting San Diego's momentum and changing the course of the National League West division race. The bullpen deserves a lot of credit during this six game streak. The starters have allowed MVP numbers to the hitters, .305/.403/.534 BA/OBA/Slug. But the bullpen keeps the team in the game, allowing averages of .169/.258/.253, few hits and no power. And that's been enough to give the offense a chance. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM
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September 10, 2007
Play the Youngsters
Permalink Royals Authority wants Kansas City to play the call-ups: I understand the idea that the Royals are in a position to play "spoiler" down the stretch. So it's important they field a major league caliber team. But didn't Brazell earn his call-up by slaughtering Triple-A pitching? Huber was, once upon a time, a prospect. And Phillips won't give you better at bats than Jason LaRue? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM
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September 09, 2007
More Shakespeare
Permalink The Orioles King Lear season continues as Jeremy Guthrie goes down with an injury: Guthrie needed just one warm-up pitch to conclude that he couldn't go on, and his largely successful season, one that saw him go from waiver-wire pickup to one of the most dominating starters in the American League in the season's first half, was probably over. Guthrie had been pitching poorly lately, giving up eleven home runs since the start of August as opposed to the twelve he allowed through the end of July. Maybe this has been bothering him for a while and just came to a head today. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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September 05, 2007
Blowing Out Baltimore
Permalink The Tampa Bay Devil Rays defeated the Orioles tonight 17-2. Despite their recent spate of large losses, the Orioles don't own the worst record in blowouts (games decided by five runs or more). Baltimore is now 13-18. It's the White Sox who are the worst in this category, going just 6-24 in these games. That's three good outings in a row for Sonnanstine. He's struck out 18 and walked two in his last 19 innings over three starts. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM
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September 03, 2007
So Bad They're Good?
Permalink Peter Schmuck notes the Orioles are very good at being bad. He launches quite a few zingers the Birds way and concludes with: The Orioles aren't without a certain twisted entertainment value of their own. I, for one, can't wait to see what happens next. They're doing a good job of setting bad records. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM
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September 01, 2007
Sweet Sixteen
Permalink The Cleveland Indians defeated the White Sox tonight 7-0, winning their eighth game in a row and extending their hot streak to thirteen wins in their last sixteen games. In that time, they've allowed two runs or less seven times, and scored seven or more six times. It's not that they're powering the ball really. With the two dingers tonight, they've hit fourteen homers in the stretch. However, they've hit .316 with runners in scoring position during the stretch. That's a big improvement on their season mark of .257. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 PM
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Good News 'Bout the Mets
Permalink The Mets look like they'll have Pedro Martinez for the month of September. Martinez did a great job throwing 53 pitches in a Friday night bullpen session making the Mets' decision to activate him easy. The three-time Cy Young winner underwent surgery last Oct. 5. He'll take Orlando Hernandez's slot as El Duque needed a cortisone shot for his right foot. The thing to watch with Pedro is how well he changes speeds on Monday. If he has his changeup, he'll be fine. On top of that, the Mets took the Braves 5-1 Saturday afternoon. Mike Pelfry was effectively wild, walking three and hitting a batter in six innings of work, but striking out seven and allowing just one hit. It was his first win of the year, and the walks were typical but the strikeouts were not. That helped him keep the hits off the board, and drop Atlanta 6 1/2 games back in the east. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:37 PM
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August 30, 2007
Nine in a Row
Permalink The Orioles lose to Tampa Bay 8-6 this evening, extending their losing streak to nine games. That matches their longest of the season, set one game into Dave Trembleys' tenure. He's yet to win a game since the interim label was removed from his title. Meanwhile, the Devil Rays remain stuck at eighty losses. That means they can still finish over .500 for the season! It will be fun to see how long they can hang on to that. They face the Yankees next, so it may not be long. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM
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August 29, 2007
A Season in a Game
Permalink The Orioles entire season was pretty much summed up in tonight's game. Steve Trachsel pitched well, allowing one run over six innings and leaving the game with a 4-1 lead. But the bullpen gives up two in the eighth and one in the ninth to wipe out Trachsel's decision and force the game into extra innings. The Devil Rays score a single run in the twelfth to take the lead, but the Orioles get a lead off single in the bottom of the inning. A sacrifice and walk later, the Orioles have the winning run on base, but two pop outs end the game. A frustrating season encapsulated in a frustrating game. The Devil Rays go to 53-80, which gives them a very good chance of finishing the season with less than 100 losses. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 PM
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August 27, 2007
Springing Back
Permalink It never ceases to amaze me how fast teams fortunes can turn around. A week ago, the Yankees pulled to four games of the Red Sox, and after the loss tonight, they're eight games back. The pitching staff looks more like what we saw in April and may. During this seven game stretch in which they've lost five, the Yankees staff allowed 7, 18, 9, 5 and 16 in their losses. That's more like the seven game losing streak of late April in which they allowed 7, 7, 7, 10, 6, 6 and 11. Meanwhile, the Tigers are looking more like the team that averaged 6.2 runs a game for May and June. Since losing 3 out of 4 to the Yankees in New York they're averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last seven. That's why I love this game. As much as you watch it, as much as you think you know, teams keep coming up with surprises. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM
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August 26, 2007
Another Saturday Night
Permalink Athletics Nation points out that Saturday road games are death for the Oakland Athletics. No wins in eight tries: Eight games. 44 runs for the opposition, 14 for the A's, and in no games have the A's scored more than 3. This means the A's are A) Partying too hard on Friday and into Saturday, B) Looking forward to Saturday nights on the town in a new city or C) None of the above. At least they are 5-5 at home on a Saturday.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 AM
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August 25, 2007
Second Half Woes
Permalink The Milwaukee Brewers were trounced by the San Francisco Giants last night 11-6. Early on the Brewers came back to tie the game at six, but San Francisco scored two in the bottom of the third to ice the game. The team is now 18-30 since July first, just two games over .500 and 1 1/2 games behind the Cubs who defeated Arizona last night. This year is pretty typical of the Brewers history. They play better in the first half then fade down the stretch. Since 1969, when the franchise came into being as the Seattle Pilots, the team is 1396-1491 through June 30th, a .484 winning percentage. Not great but near the top of the expansion teams, 25th in the majors. But after July 1st, they are 1496-1751, a 461 winnings percentage. That ranks 29th in the majors. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM
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August 24, 2007
Too Bad Games are Longer Than Six Innings
Permalink The Baltimore Orioles blow a 4-0 lead, allowing the Twins to score seven runs over the final three innings to take a 7-4 victory. Once again, Guthrie pitches well enough to win but takes home a no decision. The Orioles need to find a way to shorten the game. I don't have line scores, but through six innings Baltimore is outscoring their opponents 414-389. That implies a .531 winning percentage. But after the sixth they've been outscored 222-173. That implies a .379 winning percentage. If the games were six innings long, the Orioles would likely have a winning record. Batters 410, 173 Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM
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Meaty Clubs
Permalink Cathal Kelly notices a correlation between veggie friendly concessions and team performance. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM
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August 23, 2007
Improving Too Late?
Permalink The Oakland Athletics are famous for their second half improvements, but it looked like it wasn't going to happen in 2007. However, with their 12-2 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays tonight, the A's have won eleven of their last fifteen games are move one game over .500. They've scored six runs or more nine times in this stretch, winning eight of those games. They entered the night nine games back in the wild card race and eleven in the division. They do have six games left against both Seattle and LAnaheim, so while a playoff spot is a long shot, the A's can at least make a race of it. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM
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Why are the Diamondbacks Winning?
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Milwaukee Brewers last night. Arizona maintained their 3 1/2 game lead in the west while knocking the Brewers out of first place as the Cubs defeated the Giants. It was the 28th one-run win for the DBacks. Jeff Protzel writes (during last night's game): I was wondering if you'd devote an entry to the AZ Diamondbacks. For the life of me, I can't figure out, short of being in a very mediocre division, how they have a winning percentage of .559. Their Pythagorean projection would put them at .471. So they are playing 11 games better than they should based on RS/RA. They have noone on the offensive side of the ball with an OPS higher than .900, and they are 13th out of 16 teams in runs scored and OPS. As for pitching, except for Webb their starters are decidedly mediocre (not another starter with lower than a 1.40 WHIP). They are, however, 6th in the NL in ERA. How are they doing this? Perhaps its their 27-16 record in 1-run games? I think this would be an interesting discussion if you haven't tackled this topic yet. The one-run game record has a lot to do with it, but to drive the point home, here's a graph of the distribution of score differences for Arizona this season (click for a larger image). Positive difference are wins, negative losses. 
Notice that the Diamondbacks not only win one-run games, but they have a winning record in two, three and four run games as well. The Arizona Diamondbacks are why we figure medians. Their mean run difference this season is -0.2422. In other words, they lose on average by a quarter of a run. But if you look at the distribution, there are a large number of outliers at the negative end of the distribution. So this is a case where the median might be a better measure of the team's run scoring, and sure enough, the median run difference is one. As for the pitchers, while it's true that Webb is the only great starter, they do have a number of oustanding relievers. So the mediorce starter only gets to perform for six innings. Let's say you use a starter with an ERA of 4.50 for six innings, and a set of relievers with an ERA of 3.00 for three innings. That's an ERA of 4.00 for the game, and most teams can win decently with that. Throw in Webb for 32 starts the team wins a good number of games. With a little luck, that's enough to send you to the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM
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August 20, 2007
Analyzing a Win
Permalink Rays Index provides lots of good analysis of yesterday's Rays win, the good and the bad. As for a nickname for James Shields, how about "The Protector." Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 AM
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Seattle's Schedule
Permalink The Seattle Times points out the Mariners are in for a very rough part of their schedule. The Mariners now face a daunting stretch in which they play 17 of their next 20 games on the road, starting tonight with the opener of a three-game series in Minnesota. They make a swing to Minnesota and Texas, back home, then to Cleveland, Toronto, New York and Detroit (they face the Indians in a snow makeup). Why couldn't go from Toronto to Detroit directly is beyond me. But Texas is the only team in this stretch with no playoff hopes. While Toronto and Minnesota are on the fringes of the wild card race, beating the leader is a great way to get back into the thick of things. The real question is, how long can Seattle keep winning close? They've only outscored their opponents by 15 runs this season. Over the next three weeks, only Minnesota and Texas are worse than that, and the Twins only by two runs. And the team hasn't improved in that category under McLaren, as they've scored and allowed 209 runs since he took over. So this is the test. Seattle is faced with the teams it needs to beat to make the playoffs, none of which are without flaws. But Seattle is a combined 23-29 vs. this group of team this season. They'll need to turn that winning percentage around to make the post season. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM
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August 19, 2007
Pick Your Poison
Permalink The Reds came back from scored of 5-0 and 6-5 to take a 7-6 win over the Milwaukee Brewers today. The game was typical of Milwaukee during the streak. The starter pitched poorly and the bullpen couldn't cover or him. Starting on July 20th, five days after Ben Sheets went down, the Brewers starters are 5-12 with a 5.83 ERA. With Scott Linebrink taking the loss in the bullpen, relievers in that time are 4-8, have blown six of twelve save opportunities, and are sitting on a 6.77 ERA. The pitching staff has been capable of losing games both early and late. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:04 PM
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Teixeira Connects
Permalink Mark Teixeira hits his sixth home run since joining the Braves on August first. The hit gives the Braves a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the first, and Teixeira 17 RBI in 17 games. Despite the improvement at first base, the Braves offense has fallen in August to 5.5 runs per game from 5.8 in July. On top of that, the Atlanta pitching staff saw its ERA shoot up a run compared to July. So despite the trades, Atlanta comes into this afternoon's contest 8-8 on the month. A big reason is the starting pitching, the big weakness before the trade deadline. Their ERA is 5.50 this month. A low strikeout and a high home run rate are their biggest issues. Update: Mark hits a second home run in the game and the Braves lead 6-2 in the eighth. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:26 PM
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Giddy Fan
Permalink Jeff at Lookout Landing seems to have found true happiness. From David Ortiz hitting a grand slam off of Jered Weaver's ghoulish ass around dinnertime to JJ Putz recording the final out just before ten, I can't remember the last time I've had such a thoroughly enjoyable four hours, nor can I imagine any comparable thrill ride in the future. They say that childbirth is the happiest time in any person's life, but you can have children whenever you want. Adrian Beltre only has so many bats. If you watched the game tonight and you or your significant other go into labor tomorrow, prepare for a letdown. Wow, that's high praise for a game that was won on a bunch of singles and two unearned runs. But it doesn't stop there: Slowly but surely, I think I'm becoming the biggest Jeff Weaver fan on the planet. For a man to go through what he did earlier in the season and come out on the other end earning a series of standing ovations...that shows the kind of determination and perseverance that I admittedly don't think I could ever have. I understand and agree with the whole "regression to the mean" Weaver argument, but I don't think that would've been of any consolation to Weaver in April; no matter how unlucky he's been, it takes a lot of courage for a pitcher to sack up and keep at it when he's got a 14 ERA after making six starts. If Jeff Weaver fell off the cliff in early May, he managed to grab hold of a branch on the way down and has since pulled himself all the way back up to the top. That's just an unbelievable physical and psychological accomplishment, and no matter how good or bad you think he is as a pitcher, you have to be rooting for him. Of all the team's heartwarming stories this year, his is easily the most uplifting. I think Weaver is oblivious to how bad he can be. His performance last night wasn't exactly stellar. Let's not get carried away here. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 AM
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August 17, 2007
A Pair of Sixes
Permalink The Dodgers are up 6-0 on the Astros in the top of the eighth inning. It's the first time they've scored at least six runs in back-to-back games since right after the All-Star break when they scored nine and eight in the first two games of a sweep against San Francisco. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 AM
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August 14, 2007
No Frills
Permalink The Dodgers offense continues to sputter as Roy Oswalt holds them to one run over eight innings in a 4-1 victory by the Houston Astros. Los Angeles managed six hits last night, all singles. Over the course of this offensive slump starting 7/24, the Dodgers isolated power is a mere .094, while the National League average over that time in .164. Isolated power measures extra bases on hits, the difference between slugging percentage and batting average. So not only are the Dodgers not hitting for a high average, they're not even getting much pop from the hits they do collect. On top of that, 21 of their 35 extra base hits came with the bases empty, doing nothing to drive runners toward the plate. Update: And of course, to fix an offensive problem, you recall Shea Hillenbrand. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM
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August 13, 2007
Twins Won't Win
Permalink Aaron Gleeman writes off the Twins, and lays the blame at the feet of Terry Ryan: With an eye that's clearly pointed toward the future and a mindset that's always locked at conservative, Ryan failed to adequately prepare this team by wasting money on misguided attempts to fill spots that didn't need filling and simultaneously neglecting spots that were screaming for help. It now seems likely that the Twins will wind up a handful of games out of the playoffs in a year when Hunter, Mauer, Cuddyer, and Morneau have been outstanding and the pitching staff is among the league's best. Terry Ryan was baffling this season. As a GM known for building his team from a great farm system, he ignored the young starters on the farm to go with two veterans in the rotation with little left in the tank. On top of that, the offensive talent appeared to dry up, as no one was available to provide new offense at weak positions on the team. It appears that Ryan can build a good system when his team is losing and choices are early in the draft. The trick is keeping that farm system fresh while still winning, something that very few teams pull off. Correction: Fixed a typo. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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Your Girlfriend is Better
Permalink Dodger Thoughts presents a thorough review of how the Dodgers got to this point, while 6-4-2 notes that the front office designed the team poorly: The comment by baseballfiend was so blatantly absurd it required a response in the post itself. Yes, it was team construction that's caused these problems. Take a look at the Dodgers' injury list if you don't believe me: Randy Wolf, Hong-Chi Kuo, Chin-Hui Tsao, Jason Schmidt, all injury magnets, and this isn't a flaw of construction? That's like complaining you didn't know your bull would have deleterious effects on the china shop! Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM
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August 12, 2007
Dodger Dogs
Permalink The Cardinals take down the Dodgers again, limiting them to just two runs as St. Louis crushes Los Angeles 12-2. Take a look at the Dodgers lineup since 7/24, when this batting slump started (the stats through today will be updated tomorrow morning). There is not one batting slot in which the Dodgers hit well. The best is probably the third slot with a .304 OBA and a .403 slugging percentage. Yuck. And it's not like the short slump the Braves suffered earlier this season. This is seventeen games now in which Los Angeles is averaging 2.6 runs per game. Meanwhile, with a Milwaukee loss, the Cardinals are now 5 1/2 back. Ankiel picked up a double today to keep his slugging percentage at 1.000. Correction: Ankiel hit a double, not a single. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM
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Quality and Quantity
Permalink Saturday night's Twins-Angels game represented why the Angels are in first place and the Twins are just sniffing on the edges of the playoff race. Carlos Silva pitched seven two-hit innings, earning a short shutout while walking none and striking out two. A quality start in any book. John Lackey also pitched a strong game, but allowed two runs over eight innings, giving up ten hits. A quality start, but not as strong as Sliva. The strength of these starts can be measured by Game Score, a Bill James invention that assigns points to various elements of a pitcher's boxscore line. It's centered at 50, and the majority of game scores 50 or over are also quality starts, and I'd suggest that a better definition of a quality start is a game score of 50 or more. The game scores of last night's starts in this game were 75 by Silva and 57 by Lackey. But Lackey picked up the win while Silva went home with a no-decision. Silva was victimized by poor run and bullpen support, as the Twins managed just three runs and the Minnesota bullpen allowed four. As it turns out, the Twins starters see starts with game scored of 50 or more turn into losses or no-decisions quite often. The following table looks at the percentage of time starters get a loss or no decision in a game score quality start (GSQS):
As you can see the Devil Rays and Nationals suffer the double whammy of not receiving many game scores over 50 from their starters, and doing a poor job of converting them when they do. The Twins, however, rank ninth in GSQS, but get a win for their pitchers less than 50% of the time. The Angels, on the other hand, only fail to turn a GSQS into a starter win one third of the time. The Twins are an elite team in terms of starting pitching, but don't have the support to turn those GSQS into wins often enough to be in the thick of the pennant race. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM
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August 10, 2007
Improbable Streak
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks won again last night, defeating the Pirates 4-2 for their fifteenth win in eighteen games. The win propelled them to a three-game lead in the NL West. During the run, the Diamondbacks out-scored their opponents by just twelve runs, 87-75. That works out to a projected winning percentage of .574, a 10-8 record. Now, in a small sample of games, almost anything can happen, but their winning percentage of .833 is significantly different from what we would expect. A .574 team would be expected to win at least 15 of 18 1.98% of the time (probability .0198). And the 95% confidence interval over 18 games for a .574 club is six to fourteen wins. Part of the explanation is that Arizona is 6-0 in one-run games over this span. Another part is that when they've lost, they've lost big, but a combined score of 33-3. All the close games, however, make for a fun team to cover: This is how a game was won. With a slow curve and an 85-mph fastball. With a weak grounder to the right side. With a shot through a drawn-in infield. Doug Davis, last night's starter, has pitched very well during this streak, cutting down his walks and home runs. They're not a great team, but a little luck can take a good team a long way. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM
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August 08, 2007
Will the Dodgers Ever Score Again?
Permalink The Los Angeles Dodgers suffered their third shutout in a row tonight. The team last scored in the 8th inning on Saturday, making their streak of scoreless innings 28. The pitching staff only gave up eight runs in the three games, so all were very winnable, but a pitching staff can't win a game by itself. Harang continued his great season, upping his record to 11-3. He struck out eight and allowed just four hits over eight innings. The worst he did was give up two hits in one inning. He's cut down on his home runs quite a big this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM
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August 07, 2007
Where Has All the Offense Gone?
Permalink The Dodgers fall to the Cincinnati Reds tonight 4-0. That's the third time the Dodgers were shutout in their last four games. Through 7/23, LA was averaging 4.72 runs per game, tied for fifth in the NL. In their last twelve contests, they've scored just 34 runs (2.8 per game), winning just two. They're now 4 1/2 games out of first place, and may be tied with Colorado by the end of the evening. It seems just as Nomar is getting his swing back, the rest of the team goes south. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 PM
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August 02, 2007
Wrong Things 'bout the Mets
Permalink Conventional Wisdom about the Mets sure has been wrong this season. I picked them to win the division based on what looked like a superior offense. I was criticized for that pick. People told me the pitching wasn't going to be good enough. However, the pitching has been much better than people (or I) thought and the offense not quite up to snuff. The other day, someone left this comment: The offense, to put it mildly, is nothing special. Wright's the team's best hitter, and he's putting up a .888 OPS, nice but not brilliant. Beltran is having one of his allright-but-not-fantastic years, which are far more common than his great years (career OPS .845). Delgado is aging and showing it at .760, and Reyes is overrrated at .831. The rest of the team isn't hitting much. Their new addition, Castillo, brings a nifty .704 OPS. Of course, the Mets won the last two game 8-5 and 12-4. That seems like a pretty good offense to me. Yes, it's two games in Milwaukee, but to think this team isn't capable of scoring is mistaken. It could be they're just coming out of a season long slump. They banged out eighteen hits today, nine for extra bases. I'll make no more predictions about the team from Queens for the rest of the season. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM
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July 30, 2007
Here Come the Royals
Permalink The Kansas City Royals won their fourth game in a row yesterday and are now just 1/2 game out of fourth place in the AL Central. Consider that at 13 games back in the division they are the same distance behind Detroit that Oakland is behind LAnaheim, and only one game down in the loss column to the Athletics. Since June 24th, the Royals own the best record in the American League and the second best in baseball:
The Royals in that time score 164 runs and allowed 115. So they've actually underperformed their expected winning percentage of .670 (that's one win). They've scored all those runs without many home runs. They've hit sixteen in that time with Billy Butler leading the team with four. 
The Royals' opponents out homered them by ten during this stretch. They're not without power, however, as they've gone double happy. The Royals hit 68 doubles over these twenty nine games, better than two per game. They've also put themselves in plenty of bases loaded situations, going 13 for 26 with the sacks full, drawing five walks, a hit batter and one sac fly. Right now, the offense is clicking well. On the pitching side, he bullpen's been the main strength, allowing a 2.57 ERA over this time, compared to the starter's 4.45. But even Gil Meche is 3-1 despite a 5.26 ERA over this span. If the team is scoring plenty of runs, pitchers can afford to allow more. So the starters don't last long, but so far, the bullpen's been up to the big workload. So is this sustainable? It's really a batting average winning streak, as the difference between the offense's average (.288) and the opponents average (.260) explains most of the difference in runs scored. The Royals are still not drawing a lot of walks (although their .348 OBA over this time is good), nor are they hitting home runs. It strikes me the bullpen might not be able to handle the workload long term. But this is a start. Management has them one game down in the loss column to the Oakland Athletics, one of the best run organizations in baseball. They're no longer a team to dismiss. That's a big step in the right direction. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM
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July 20, 2007
Where are the Runs?
Permalink The Red Sox lost their third in a row and fourth in their last five games last night as the White Sox took the game 4-2. Neither start, Vazquez and Matsuzaka pitched well, and probably gave up fewer runs than they deserved. Javier allowed nine hits over 6 1/3 innings, while Dice-K walked six (just two hits, however). The Red Sox are averaging just three runs a game during this five game stretch. Mostly, it's been poor timing of hits. They're just six for thirty six with runners in scoring position during the last five games. That's something that tends to even out over time. But there's another factor to watch. Overall, Boston is hitting a healthy .291 during this stretch, but their OBA is just .324. For the season, the Red Sox OBA is .357 on a .275 batting average. So the team isn't drawing walks. They're not putting those few extra men on base to drive in. If you look at the list of individual players during the last five games, you see a lot of batting averages matching OBAs. The offense is playing out of character right now. It's also interesting that Manny is finally coming around and the team isn't scoring. I thought that once Ramirez returned to form this team would be golden. My guess is that will still be the case, and this is just a short span of bad luck. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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July 19, 2007
Graphing the Athletics
Permalink There's an excellent graph at AndrewKoch.com showing why the Athletics are in such a slump right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM
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July 17, 2007
Clearing the Bases
Permalink Jon Weisman notes that the Dodgers scored ten runs last night and left only one runner on base. It's the first time the team did that in ten years. Home runs tend to clear the bases, and the Dodgers had two three-run shots in the game. However, lots of men left on base usually indicates a team is getting on base, hence a team with a high OBA. That's a good thing. Leaving lots of men on base and scoring a lot of runs just means everyone is hitting. Leaving a lot of men on base in a low scoring game means the offense had poor timing. In general, I'd rather have a team that leaves lots of men on base. Eventually, they'll come around to score. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM
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Splitting Their Best Hitters
Permalink In Monday night's game against the Padres the Mets young stars, Reyes and Wright combined for five hits. But the two batters between them, Milledge and Beltran combined to go 0 for 8. Looking at the numbers in that boxscore, the Mets don't really have a good option to stick between their two great hitters. Beltran's slump is in the middle of its third month. Milledge hasn't shown he can hit major league pitching yet. Delgado's OBA has plummeted. The Mets may be better off batting Wright second, just to get those two strong bats reinforcing each other. It will give the batters behind them plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. I was criticized for picking the Mets first this year based on their great offense. I was told the pitching wasn't good enough. But the offense ranks tenth in runs per game, and the staff is third in ERA. I guess we were all wrong about this team. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM
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July 16, 2007
Cubs Streak
Permalink The Cubs defeat the Giants 3-2 to win their fourth game in a row. The last two were by a difference of one run, something they were losing earlier in the season. Rich Hill might have been able to finish the game as he threw just 95 pitches through eight. However, he did walk and batter and allow two hits and a run in his last inning, so in the close game Howry picked up his sixth save. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM
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Going Down
Permalink Oakland Athletics fans are a bit down in the dumps right now. It's especially tough since they've had the best record in the majors after June from 2000 on, .622 (369-224). Posted by StatsGuru at 06:09 PM
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July 15, 2007
Spreading the Power
Permalink Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko both homered today as the Indians defeated the Royals 5-3. Both players are part of the six Indians with ten or more home runs. While no one on the team is near the league lead, they've spread the power throughout the lineup. They are one of five team with six players with ten or more home runs; the Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Tigers are the others. The Tribe is fourth in the majors overall in home runs coming into today and first in the American League. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:52 PM
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July 11, 2007
Royal Pain
Permalink Royals Authority notes the next thirteen games for the Royals are going to be a real test of the team's optimism. They play on the road against three playoff contenders, then come home to face the Yankees. On the other hand, if they play close to .500 against these four teams, they'll come out even more confident about the rest of the season. I do like this reason for pessimism, however: BUDDY BELL - Quick, after Gil Meche, who has been the Royals best starter? I bet 90% of you said Brian Bannister. Well, when Bannister finally gets to pitch again on Monday, July 16th, he will have had ELEVEN DAYS rest. Someone explain to me why we are pitching Odalis Perez on Friday and Jorge De La Rosa on Sunday. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM
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July 09, 2007
Power Outage
Permalink Al at Bleed Cubbie Blue wonders what happened to the Cubs home run power: After today's 6-2 loss to the Pirates, the Cubs have now gone nine games without a HR. Ramirez and Theriot are hitting for power, just not home runs. And it seems opponents are pitching around Lee whenever possible. On top of that, seven of their last nine games were played in parks not known for helping home run hitters. The Cubs have allowed eight homers in those nine games, so they're not exactly getting blown away. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM
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July 08, 2007
Getting Better All the Time
Permalink The Kansas City Royals scored twelve runs today as they take down the Devil Rays 12-4. The Royals offense improved each month this season:
Since June 1, the Royals are 19-15, tied for the sixth most wins in the majors. No one is hitting for that much power, but five of their regulars are doing a very good job of getting on base. It's nice to see the team improving. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM
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Cardinals in the Hunt
Permalink The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-0 today behind equally good pitching by starter Todd Wellenmeyer and the bullpen. The team knocked out twelve hits and drew four walks. The offense has come around, and since May 14th they've averaged over five runs per game. Not surprisingly, Pujols and Rolen have done a good job getting on base in that time. Unfortunately, the offense hasn't been enough, as they've still played one game under .500 in that time. However, they're just 7 1/2 games out of first place, a deficit they nearly blew at the end of last season. It they can find some consistent starters, they can still make a run at the NL Central. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 PM
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Pirates Gain
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates take two out of three from the Cubs, defeating Carlos Zambrano 6-2. The Bucs go into the All-Star break on a strong note, winning five of seven against the Brewers and Cubs, and nine of their last thirteen. That takes from from twelve games under .500 to just eight, and at nine games out of first place they are closer to the division lead than the Yankees in the AL East. Jason Bay has been the worst of the regulars during that time, but today he picked up two hits and drove in four, two of those coming on his thirteenth home run of the season. Now if the Pirates can keep this going in the second half of the season, they can climb back into the playoff chase. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:17 PM
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July 02, 2007
Indians at Second
Permalink The Cleveland Indians are solid offensively at every position but second base. Barfield sports a .281 OBA coming into the game. That's bad even for a middle infielder. Now, with the strength of the rest of the team, the Indians can afford to let the young Barfield develop. But if they want a little extra oomph, maybe they can make a deal for Ray Durham? He's not having a great year, so his cost shouldn't be high. And maybe the Indians can send the Giants something they need, a young position player. Plus, moving Durham makes room for Kevin Frandsen, and make the team younger. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 PM
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July 01, 2007
Improving Rangers
Permalink The Texas Rangers won a close, low-scoring game, 2-1 over the Red Sox. It was only the second time this season they won a game in which they scored two runs or less. Texas is now 11-5 in their last sixteen games. They've been strong up the middle in this stretch, as Lofton, Young and Kinsler are their leading hitters. On the pitching side, today's combination of Loe and Gagne have been stellar. In the sixteen games, Loe is now 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA, while Gagne picked up his fourth save. And while they are still a long way out of contention, the Rangers are no longer the worst team in the American League. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 PM
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June 30, 2007
Questioning the Writers
Permalink Joe Christensen shares his answers to Tracy Ringolsby's questionnaire. Joe's answer are aimed at the Twins. Update: Sorry, forgot the link. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:15 PM
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Royals Winning
Permalink Royals Authority wonders if the Royals winning record in June (15-11 so far) is a fluke or a trend. The offense score a lot of runs despite not hitting all that well. Not surprisingly, they put up very good situational numbers, hitting .305 with runners in scoring position for the month and going 9 for 16 with the bases loaded. The batting stats say fluke, but RA points out that the good hitters in the month for the team are the youngsters. That is indeed a positive. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM
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June 29, 2007
Eight in a Row
Permalink The Rockies lost their 8th in a row tonight. With two out in the bottom of the ninth, Lee walked and Lorreta homered to left field, allowing Houston to walk off with a 9-8 victory. The Rockies, looking like contenders after sweeping the Yankees, haven't won a game since. They've scored 45 runs in the eight games, so runs aren't the problem. The staff that held New York to five runs in three games appears to have disappeared. The Yankees must be asking, "Why us?" Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 PM
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Frustrating Rays
Permalink Rays Index notes how the Devil Rays are a frustrating team to watch: But as good as the Rays have looked this season, would you be surprised that after 76 games the Rays have the exact same record in 2007 that they had last year? They do. They're good players are very good, but their bad players are very bad. The Rays need to get their bad players to mediocre so they have a chance of not undermining the strengths of the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM
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Turning Their Luck Around
Permalink The Indians offense is doing a much better job this season of turning defeats into victories. A huge difference between the Indians this year and last year is the ability to rally. Thursday marked their 23rd comeback victory in 78 games (46-32); they managed just 27 comebacks en route to a 78-84 finish in 2006. The Tribe has a .369 OBA and a .497 slugging percentage when trailing in a game this season. Those are pretty good numbers for an every day player, let alone a team. In 2006 those numbers were .336 and .447. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM
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Standing Pat
Permalink It looks like the Yankees are not going to trade the future for a win this year: The Yankees went 1-7 on the trip, and their record remains three games under .500, at 36-39. They have slipped so suddenly, and lost so soundly, they have begun to question the wisdom of seeking major help through a trade. Well, that and Hillenbrand isn't a very good ballplayer. But this is the right move for the organization. Sometimes a team needs to take a step back in order to insure long term success. So they keep the prospects today for success tomorrow. And if the current team can come out of their offensive funk, they can still figure in the wild card race. Yesterday, my good friend Jim Storer and I were discussing what the Yankees needed to do to make the playoffs. We figure at a minimum they need to reach 92 wins, a 56-29 record the rest of the way. That's a .644 winning percentage. I checked the last 50 season using the Day by Day Database, and from July 1 to the end of the season, there are 46 teams that played .644 or better. (That's 3.7% of the team seasons in that time.) Two of those were the 2002 and 2005 Yankees. The 2005 team is the best comparison, since they were just one game over .500 at the end of June (39-38) whereas the 2002 team played great all year. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM
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June 28, 2007
High Flying Fish
Permalink The Marlins defeated the Pirates 9-7 this afternoon. It marks the 13th time this season Florida scored nine runs or more, the most times in the NL and tied for second in the majors with a number of American League teams. The Marlins rank third in the NL in Runs/Game at 4.86. Not bad for a team that was sold off a year and a half ago. They've developed a very good 1-5 lineup, and were smart enough to bunch their good hitters together. Now they need to get mature and heal their young pitchers. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:23 PM
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June 27, 2007
Streak for Naught
Permalink The Cubs won their sixth game in a row today, defeating the Rockies 6-4. Zambrano pitched well again, striking out eight batters in six inning and allowing just two runs. Unfortunately for the Cubs, the Brewers won five of their last six and eight of their last nine. The story of the Cubs season is bad timing, and they've gained very little with this streak at this time. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM
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June 26, 2007
Lots of Bad Luck
Permalink The Giants defeated the Padres in extra-innings last night, and Kevin Towers expects them to climb back into the race. The Giants are nine game under .500, despite scoring 315 runs and allowing .316. Look at the number of teams that are four wins or more below their projected total:
The teams that many games above are the Nationals, Cardinals and Diamondbacks. There appears the bad luck is more concentrated than the good luck this year. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM
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June 25, 2007
Home Run Runs
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays smacked three home runs tonight on their way to defeating the Twins 8-5. Matt Stairs broke a 5-5 tie in the eighth with a two run shot. The three dingers moved the Blue Jays into sole possession of second place in the AL team home run race with 93. However, what was different tonight is that two of the three homers came with men on base. Coming into tonight, they ranked 12th in the AL in percentage of home runs with men on base at 39%. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:36 PM
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Splitting the Braves
Permalink The Day by Day Database provides a breakdown of the Braves by situation during their five game slump. Some things to note:
Looking at the individual players, Chipper Jones is obviously missed. But have you ever seen so many hitters go into a slump at once? McCann is 0 for 14. Andruw Jones went 1 for 12. Even Chipper, who accounted for the only run, is just 3 for 13. I'm not sure how Bobby Cox can fix this. You can't bench the whole team. Do you send McCann, Francouer and Thorman back to the minors just to send a message? With the way Andruw Jones is hitting, he's not exactly trade bait at the moment. Maybe the can get better against Washington, but at least they were able to average four runs a game against the Tigers. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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June 24, 2007
Arizona in First
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks moved into first place today with an 8-3 win over the Orioles. The DBacks came into the game having scored and allowed 314 runs, making them appear to be more of a .500 team than one that's eleven games over .500 (they must be collecting some of the luck the Cubs and Yankees are losing this season). Arizona's won 17 of 25 one-run games this season, accounting for most of their standing above .500. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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Angelic Month
Permalink With a 10-1 win over Pittsburgh last night, the Angels move to 15-5 for the month of June, the best record in the majors. While their pitching remains steady over time, the offense improved every month to the point they are hitting .333 as a unit in June. Even more impressive, they're doing it with Vlad having an off month! He drove in 22 runs so far, but Willits, Figgins and Cabrera are on base so much, it's easy to drive people in even when making outs (although Vlad is 8 for 24 with runners in scoring position). Even Shea Hillenbrand is posting a .368 OBA for the month. With the Angels scoring 6.75 runs per game for the month and an ERA under 4.00, they sure look like a juggernaut right now. And it's nice to see the youngsters, Willits, Kendrick, Napoli and Kotchman (before the injury) contributing. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM
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June 23, 2007
Texas Offense
Permalink The Texas Rangers defeated the Houston Astros 7-2 this afternoon. The Rangers offense, after getting off to a poor start, finally started clicking.
With the renewed offense the Rangers are now 11-9 in the month. One reason they are not doing better is their ERA is up as well, 5.46 for the month. If they can maintain this level of offense and get their ERA down 1/2 a run, they'll have a pretty good second half. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 PM
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June 22, 2007
Yankees Weakness
Permalink The Soxaholix uncovers the Yankees weakness in a bonus strip today: Yes, it is their Achilles' heel, this slavish relationship with historicity. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM
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June 20, 2007
Unlucky Giants
Permalink With the two run loss to the Brewers today, the Giants have scored as many runs as they've allowed, 293 on both sides of the ball. That makes their record of 30-41 even more amazing. It's the close games. With the loss today, the Giants are 15-26 in one and two runs games. It makes you wonder if the recently hired Bochy is on the hot seat. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:44 PM
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June 19, 2007
Riding the Waves
Permalink Jerry Brewer looks at the up and down year experienced by the Seattle Mariners: The Mariners have 81-81 written all over them. They're hitting .284 and allowing opponents to hit .284. They've scored 335 runs and allowed 337. They're as good as their 9-of-10 winning streak and as bad as their current five-game losing streak. Luck is evening out quickly for the Mariners. I still feel the team is better than expected, but with the Angels playing so well, it's going to be tough to catch them. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:01 PM
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June 16, 2007
Summing up the Cardinals
Permalink After a 14-3 loss to the Oakland Atheltics, in which Braden Looper left with a potential injury, La Russa summed up his team this way: "Early in the season when we couldn't hit we could pitch. Now that we can hit, we can't pitch," La Russa said. "We have more problems than plusses and we have to reverse that." The Cardinals allowed 93 runs in their last 12 games, 31 of those in their last two. Amazingly, they're 5-7 in that stretch. There's only been one good start in that time frame, and only one where the starter went deep in the game. Last night, the lack of starters going deep caught up with St. Louis, as Spiezio pitched an inning, giving St. Louis the best performance of the night. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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June 15, 2007
Apologies
Permalink I wrote snarky comments about the Pirates and Nationals last night, and commenters correctly called me on those. The Pirates offense ranks 12th in the NL in runs per game at 4.20. Coming into last night's game, however, they had been on a bit of a roll, averaging over five runs per game in their previous eight. And while I still don't think Washington is a very good team, since May 11 they are 20-12, tied for the third best record in the majors (with the Phillies), while Baltimore is 12-19 in the same period. However, the Baltimore media did react badly to the sweep: Had the reeling Orioles reached their lowest point? Sam Perlozzo was asked that question after his team fell to the Washington Nationals, 3-1, last night, completing a humiliating three-game sweep. The Orioles' embattled manager stared straight ahead for a second while he formulated a response. I'm waiting for the axe to drop on Perlozzo. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM
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June 14, 2007
Number Nine
Permalink The Yankees win their ninth in a row, an easy 7-1 victory over the Diamondbacks. The New York starters are going deep in games; it's the fifth time in this streak the starter went at least seven innings as Pettitte pitches eight. Andy was able to go that far because he was efficient, using just 101 pitches. The rotation sports a 2.98 ERA during the streak, while the Yankees offense is averaging over seven runs a game. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:17 PM
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June 12, 2007
Seven in a Row
Permalink The Yankees defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1 for their seventh straight win, bringing themselves back to the .500 mark. This is the first time in the seven games that they scores less than five runs. They've outscored their opponents 53-21, or an average of better than 7-3. That's the kind of play I expected from the Yankees at the start of the season. We'll see if it turns out to be too little too late. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM
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Slumping Batters
Permalink With a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers Monday night, the New York Mets have now lost seven of their last eight games. During this time, they're getting on base at a .302 clip. Up until the start of this streak, the high scoring offense posted a .349 OBA. And it's a result of not walking. Through June 2nd, the team BB/AB was .108. Now, it's .066. No wonder they've scored just 28 runs in their last eight games. And it's the older players causing the trouble. Beltran and Delgado especially aren't hitting nor drawing walks. The Mets probably can afford to have one of them go into a slump, but not both. Update: Odd that Reyes isn't feeling comfortable at the plate. He's drawn six of the Mets' walks in the last eight games and is doing a great job of getting on base. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM
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June 09, 2007
Cubs Conundrum
Permalink Sean Conway writes: I need some help figuring out the cubs this year. They must be the most difficult team to reconcile from a stat to play-on-the-field/ record point. Consider this: they are solidly above average in hitting (runs, OPS), pitching (ERA, OPS against) and Fielding (efficiency, %), 25+ run diff, , and their closer only has one (devastating) blown save. And their 3 worst players beside the miserable J Jones have ben the guys we thought were the most solid (Z, Eyre, Howry) I can't really find any stat says they are not a good, balanced team. They make too many gaffs, and don't appear to be good situational hitters, but is that really enough to lower them from a .550 team to a .450 team? To me, a team that outscores opponents overall is a good team, despite their won-loss record. So I tend to go with luck here. After all, Cleveland way underperformed expectations based on run difference for two years. One thing I don't have data on is base running blunders, which seem to be a big concern of Piniella. It's possible the timing of those are costing the team wins without costing them a lot of runs. Then it could be Lou just doesn't push the right buttons. The wrong reliever at the wrong time, and an otherwise good game ends up a one-run loss. The Cubs are certainly capable of blowing out teams. Is winning the close ones, then a matter of luck, skill, or managerial mistakes? I tend to favor luck, but I'm open to other suggestions. As for the value trap, there are teams that luck abandoned for a season, but given the weakness of the division, I would expect Chicago's to have a good chance to turn things around. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 AM
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June 03, 2007
They Joy of Sox
Permalink Peter's Red Sox Forever blog sums up yesterday's Red Sox game from the point of view of a Boston fan: For the Yankees, this game was a horror show, especially the 7th inning, the inning that showed the whole country just how bad the Yankees really are, in the field and in their bullpen. Their losing record is no surprise, not after seeing that. Players out of place, missed fly balls, dual errors by Jeter, one leading to an injury, and a bullpen that would be more suited to a Single A club. And that was all in one inning, an inning that probably seemed 3 days long for the team on the field. For a Red Sox fan like me, it was about 35 minutes of great entertainment. Oscar worthy and Emmy winning. And then knowing that the 8th and 9th would be taken care of by the Darkman, Hideki Okajima, and Paps, well, that was just icing on the cake. Sweet and delicious. Every last bite! Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM
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June 02, 2007
Boundary Layers
Permalink I have a physicist friend who specialized in boundary layers. For example, when an underground fresh water stream flows into the sea, there is a boundary layer between the fresh and salt water that is neither. There is mixing is this layer, so the flow in this layer is different than in either the fresh or salt layer. In looking at the Yankees-Red Sox game today, it appears the Yankees have a boundary layer problem. The boundary we're talking about here is between the starters and the closers. It seems that as the starter weakens, the initial relievers cause a lot of turbulence in the transition from starter to bullpen. Today it was Mussina and Proctor. Mike gives up home runs to lead off the sixth. Proctor comes in, gets out of the inning, but then melts down in the 7th, allowing five runs and costing the Yankees the game. In the games I've followed recently, that seems to be a pattern. An early exit by a Yankees starter leads to a period of instability where the first relievers in do a lousy job. Eventually they get through it, and the pitchers are okay the rest of the way, but the damage is done. The Yankees have to decide who is the best pitcher out of the bullpen to be the first man in. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 PM
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May 31, 2007
21
Permalink The Mets take a 4-2 victory over the Giants tonight. San Francisco scored two runs on two hits in the top of the first off Hernandez, but would not get another hit until the eighth. The win makes the Mets 15-6 over their last twenty one games. They were tied with the Braves when this streak started, and now lead Atlanta by 4 1/2 games. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM
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As Berkman Goes
Permalink It seems over the last two season, you can gauge the performance of the Astros by the performance of Lance Berkman. If he's hurt the team does poorly. If he's not hitting, the team does poorly. The Astros ten game losing streak is another example. With an 0 for 4 last night, Lance's batting average dropped to .094 during the streak. He's not the only one hitting poorly, but right now he's a black hole in the middle of their three best hitters, Ensberg, Lee and Pence. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 AM
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May 30, 2007
Relievers Rise
Permalink I'd like to disagree with Tracy Ringolsby a bit: What is so noticeable about the Rockies' recent success is there's nothing noticeable about it - except the results. There is one area where Colorado excelled during this streak, and that's in the bullpen. Manuel Copas is the only Rockies reliever to allow a run during the streak, and he did that without allowing a hit! In 15 1/3 innings, the pen allowed eight hits and five walks while striking out fourteen. That's an outstanding performance. What's also nice is that the starters are getting into the seventh on average, keeping the pen's workload light. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM
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The Red Sox Must Really be Good
Permalink I don't believe I've ever read such an optimistic column about the Red Sox in the Globe, especially from Dan Shaughnessy. Could life be any better? Normally, I would take this column as a sign that the Red Sox were about to go on an extended losing streak. Dan writing this glowingly reminds me of the DotCom Bubble. Once everyone thinks the market is going up, it's time to sell. But I tend to share his optimism, mostly because the offense isn't hitting on all cylinders yet. When Manny and Drew start hitting, I expect the team to get better. Update: Lyflines disagrees with my last statement. I think his Drew/Youkilis comparison is a bit moot, since Drew was playing in a much different ballpark last season. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM
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May 29, 2007
Strange Distribution
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Yankees tonight 3-2. Toronto maintains their 11 1/2 game gap with Boston, while New York falls 14 1/2 games out of first. Jeter and A-Rod take home responsibility for this loss, as their errors led to two unearned runs. The more I look at the Yankees, however, the more I'm convinced this season is just bad luck. If you run this simulator over and over, every so often you see a team that is intrinsically over .500 finish under .500, just by random chance. Look at the Yankees distribution of runs scored and allowed by games (includes Tuesday's loss):
That's the distribution of an above .500 team. The defense produces more low scoring games than the offense. The offense produces more high scoring games than the defense. Twenty one wins in fifty tries is the low end of the 95% confidence interval for a team with an intrinsic .550 winning percentage. The Yankees are having the team analog of Mike Lowell's 2005 season. He looked like he was done that year, but his average was at the low end of the 95% confidence interval for his career batting average. Given that he's come back from that season, it's pretty clear 2005 was a fluke. He was bad because of dumb luck. The same may be true of this Yankees team. They're not a bad team, they've just gone through an unlucky stretch. It may be bad enough that they don't make the playoffs, but that happens. It may be tough for fans and Steinbrenner to accept, but sometimes a season like this isn't really anyone's fault. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM
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Analyzing the Nats
Permalink Capitol Punishment looks at the Nationals Hot streak and wonders if it can continue. The Nats start a homestand with two good teams, the Dodgers and Padres. It'll be interesting to see if this hot streak continues, especially with much of the offensive improvement coming as a result of favorable road parks (and their opponents' lousy pitching). But if the Nats can keep winning against the good teams from the west, the fans can rightfully hope for better days ahead. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM
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Twins Mistakes
Permalink Aaron Gleeman looks at what Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz cost the Twins: How much did giving 17 starts to Ponson and Ortiz hurt the team? It's tough to say for certain, but a rough estimate is possible. On the most basic level, the Twins went 6-11 in their starts. If you assume that they would have managed a .500 record if those same starts had been made by Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Matt Garza, then going with Ponson and Ortiz cost 2-3 wins. If you assume that Baker, Slowey, and Garza would have won more than half the time, then 4-5 games were lost. And yet no one is calling for the head of Terry Ryan. Brian Cashman should be so lucky. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM
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May 28, 2007
Flat Brew
Permalink The Milwaukee Brewers continue to try to give back the NL Central, but the others teams don't seem up to taking it. With their 2-1 loss to the Braves today, Milwaukee dropped 12 or their last 15 games. Today's offensive performance fit into the run perfectly. They've scored just 46 runs, a little over three per game. Before May 13th they scored over five runs per game. The also got a rare good start today, as Chris Capuano only allowed two runs over seven innings. That's the best they've done since Ben Sheets won a game on May 17th. However, the Cardinals and Pirates lost, and the Cubs are losing in the bottom of the ninth. The NL Central is giving the Brewers time to recover from their collective slump. Update: The Cubs score three runs in the bottom of the ninth, but lose to Florida 5-3. The Brewers maintain their five game lead in the NL Central. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM
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May 26, 2007
Out of Sync
Permalink The Angels defeated the Yankees 3-1 this afternoon behind a fine performance by Kelvim Escobar. He struck out eight over seven innings while walking just one. With the win, the Angels reach the .600 level with a record of 30-20. The last two games also demonstrate a problem with the Yankees this season; they can't seem to get the offense and pitching in sync. Yesterday they scored six runs, but their staff allowed ten. Today, Wang gave up three runs in the first, but then shut down the Angels for seven more innings. Somehow, they need to get the good pitching and offensive performances on the same day. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 PM
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May 24, 2007
Improving Nationals
Permalink Washington survives two late runs by Cincinnati to take tonight's contest 4-3. The Nationals are now winners of 10 of their last 14 games. That follows an eight game losing streak. They're scoring 5.3 runs per game during this period. The the best in the National League from May 11th on. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 PM
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Beating the Easy Teams
Permalink The Cardinals are up 2-0 on the Pirates early in the game. They're going for the series sweep, but the Pirates are much competition. Against team with a record .500 or better this season, St. Louis is just 3-16. Against team like the Pirates, below .500 teams, the Cardinals record is 15-9. They're the champions of the second division. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM
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May 21, 2007
Double Digits
Permalink The Rangers lead the Twins 12-2 in the sixth inning. In their first 29 games the Rangers reached double digits in runs just once. This is the fourth time in their last 16 the Rangers reached ten runs, and the second night in a row. It looks like the offense is waking up. They're 9 1/2 games out of the division lead, however, so we'll see if it's too late. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM
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Selectivity in Texas
Permalink Kevin Sherrington believes Ron Washington's message of patience at the plate is finally getting through to the hitters. The reason it took so long is interesting: Here's why all this talk about plate discipline is important: The more pitches you make a guy throw, the quicker he comes out of a game. And chances are the pitchers following him aren't as good. The history of baseball is full of disciplined hitters who pounded the ball. There's a reason they call it the strike zone; that's where a batter is most likely to strike the ball. Waiting to get that pitch in the zone means better contact, hitting the ball harder, and more hits. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM
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May 19, 2007
Have the Mighty Fallen?
Permalink The Mets defeated the Yankees 3-2 Friday night on a two-run homer by Endy Chavez. The Yankees wasted another good pitching performance by Andy Pettitte. They're four games under .500, ten games behind the idle Red Sox. With 40 games played, one quarter of the season, we have to ask, is this still an elite team? The first thing to notice is that their record is way out of whack with their runs scored and runs allowed. They've plated 214 runs while allowing 188, which should be good for a .564 winnings percentage, 22 or 23 wins. But, the Yankees win a lot of games by wide margins. Twelve of their 18 wins came by scored of four runs or more, including their last six. They haven't won a close game, (2 runs or less) since May 3rd, when they defeated Texas 4-3. Since then they've lost four by two runs or less. More importantly, they've lost six in that time frame in which the opposition scored five runs or less, below the Yankees average of 5.35 runs per game. They're losing games this offense should win. Finally, they're losing to everyone. Against Cleveland, Minnesota and Texas the Yankees are 10-2. Those are the only three teams with a losing record against the Bronx Bombers. Tampa Bay won three out of four. Against the AL East the Yankees are 3-11! Early in the season, the pitching wasn't doing the job. Now, the pitching done well enough for this team to win, and the offense hasn't delivered.
The early problem was pitching, and the Yankees fixed that. Now they need to figure out how to fix the offense. The problem is the offense is supposed to be good. So do you wait for Abreu, Damon and Cano to come out of their overall slumps? Do you wait for A-Rod and Giambi come out of their power slumps? The easy move is to find a lumbering power hitter to play first base. Right now, all the Yankees can do is draw a walk, and a double play is more likely to follow than a home run. In most years, this is a team capable of winning their division, but bad luck due to bad timing put them in a deep hole. Maybe it's age catching up to the team. Abreu, Damon, Giambi, Jeter, Matsui, Posada and A-Rod are all at ages where we'd expect declines, after all. They're getting to the point, however, where Clemens might not be able to save them. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM
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May 18, 2007
Orioles Woes
Permalink Soccer Dad disagrees with Ken Rosenthal that pitching is the biggest problem on the Orioles. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 AM
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May 17, 2007
Nationals Looking Up
Permalink The Washington Nationals defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-3 this afternoon, giving them six wins in their last seven games. After an eight game losing streak, Washington sat at 9-25, and looked like they might challenge the recent ineptitude of the Detroit Tigers. But they've outscored their opponents 33-21. The offense is okay, but the pitching's been great. Today it was the bullpen, retiring all nine batters they faced. It this stretch, batters are 20 for 103 vs. the Washington pen, a .194 BA. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM
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Celebrating the Three Game Streak
Permalink A positive view of the Devil Rays over at Bugs and Cranks. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM
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May 13, 2007
The Red Sox Year?
Permalink The Red Sox go into the ninth trailing 5-0. Lugo starts the inning with an out, but Crisp reaches on an error. Eight batters and one out later, Lugo comes up again with the bases loaded the score 5-4. He works the count to 3-2, then hits a grounder in the hole between second and third. Millar fields the ball, but Ray breaks a split second late to cover first. The throw hits off Ray's glove for the second error of the inning, and two runs cross the plate to give the Red Sox a 6-5 win. Between the two errors, the Red Sox picked up a single, two doubles and three walks. It's the type of comeback that makes you think this is a team of destiny. No homers in the game, so the Orioles and Red Sox don't help out the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM
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May 12, 2007
Throw in the Towel?
Permalink Richard Griffin suggests just that in reviewing the spate of injuries befalling the Blue Jays: This year the DL has housed a Cy winner, the starting catcher, ace reliever, setup man, the leadoff man, an all-star third baseman and No.3 starter. The Jays are seven games under .500, seven games out of the wild card. A climb back into contention is going to be difficult, but not impossible. This could be Ricciardi and Gibbons finest moment. But I doubt it. Of all the Moneyball GMs in baseball, Ricciardi is the most disappointing. He never seems to have the extra piece in the minors or the ability to make the trade for that player with the overlooked skill. This will likely be a very long summer in Toronto. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 AM
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May 11, 2007
Molina's Speed
Permalink Bill Plaschke uses Jose Molina's steal of home as a metaphor for what's wrong with the Angels this season: It's not only that Molina, with seven stolen bases in six major league seasons, swiped home. Plaschke correctly points out that the Angels are second to last in home runs and walks. However, I don't know that trading a pitcher for a power hitter is the answer. Power is down this season, so there's not a lot of surplus talent out there. The real problem is that the Angels farm system hasn't delivered. They've tried to go with youth, and either the youth wasn't ready or the youth wasn't as good as they hoped. Either way, there's not a lot of offense on the team right now. Correction: I had the wrong Molina brother. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM
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The Big Stage
Permalink It's not like they haven't been warned. "I told these kids," Ned Yost said before the charter touched down in New York, "that things are going to start to get a little crazy." The pitching matchups look like they favor the Brewers as well. It should be a fun weekend in Queens. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM
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May 10, 2007
At Seventeen
Permalink The Oakland Athletics took no prisoners today as they defeated the Royals 17-3. Dan Johnson continues to shine, knocking out four hits, including a double and two home runs. He's now slugging .723. It's the third time the A's scored over 10 runs in a game this season. On the year, they've scored 141 runs, 45 of those in three games! That's nearly a third of their offense for the year. Eliminate those few and far between blowouts, and Oakland is scoring just 3.2 runs per game. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM
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May 08, 2007
Wallbanger Revival
Permalink The Brewers win again as they blast three more home runs to bring the team total to 42 in 33 games. That's one behind the Reds for the major league lead. Fielder and Hardy each went deep tonight, and both are in the top five among the league leaders. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 PM
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Improving Hustle
Permalink Ivy Chat speculates that Lou Piniella exerted a positive effect on Aramis Ramirez: Some people have suggested that the new, always hustling, playing smart Ramirez is a sign that A-Ram's bad hamstrings were really bad last year. That's doubtful. Under Dusty Baker, a guy with hammys as bad as all that would have asked for, and received, a few weeks off. He's off to a much better start than at the same time last year. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM
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Laughing Now
Permalink The office workers at the Soxaholix are having a good laugh at Yankees fans vocabulary.. Of course, the Yankees are in better shape than than they were two years ago, and we all remember how that one turned out. Update: LyfLines made this point yesterday. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM
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May 07, 2007
Seat of Power
Permalink Adrian Gonzalez puts the Padres up 1-0 over the Braves with a second inning home run. It was his ninth of the season. Those nine represents one third of the Padres total. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 PM
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Heavenly Pitching
Permalink Halo's Heaven notes that LAnaheim's starters are racking up quality outings, but a lack of offense means they're losing those games. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:45 PM
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May 05, 2007
Not Hitting on Contact
Permalink The Chicago White scored one run last night as they lost to the LAnaheim Angels 5-1. They now own the second lowest level of runs per game in the AL, 3.85 runs per game. The south siders just aren't very good at hitting them where they ain't. In Friday's game, Chicago picked up six hits in 32 at bats. They struck out eight times. So when putting the ball in play, they batted .250. The Hardball Times demonstrates one way of measuring this, Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). This measures batting average when not striking out or homering. Basically, how good is a team at putting balls in play that avoid the defense. The White Sox are hitting .235, a ridiculously low average. (Texas is next at .264.) However, BABIP, I think, is more of a reverse defensive stat. Let's look at the offense as a whole. I'm going to use BA when not striking out (Hits/(AB-K)). That gives us a good approximation the chance of getting a hit when the player makes contact. The White Sox are lowest in the majors at .271. Here's the lowest from this year. K PCT is also given. The White Sox are middle of the pack, meaning they do an okay job of putting the ball in play.
The Day by Day Database goes back to 1957, and this is one of the lowest levels of the last 50 years.
Most of these teams go back to the 1960s and early 1970s. The White Sox are the first team to be this low since 1981. Why? They're line drive percentage is low, but not the lowest. They don't put a large number of ball in play on the ground. They appear to have become a very home run oriented team (which, given the characteristics of their ballpark, is a reasonable move). But in a year where the ball isn't carrying well, those big flys are falling into outfielder gloves. So far, 2007 doesn't look like a year for a one-dimensional, power-hitting team. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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May 03, 2007
Two Pitchers
Permalink James Shields started his sixth game for the Devil Rays this season and pitched well again. In 7 1/3 innings tonight he struck out eight Twins while walking just two. He picks up the win as well, lifting his record to 3-0 as Tampa Bay defeats Minnesota 6-4. Shields on the season struck out 45 batters in 43 1/3 innings, walking just nine. It's looking like Kazmir and Shields are starting to come together as a pretty good 1-2 combination at the top of the DRays rotation. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM
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May 02, 2007
Big Lead Brewers
Permalink With a four game lead in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers hold the largest lead of any first place club. The last two game they've played like a team with a big lead, defeating the Cardinals by a combined score of 19-3. This took them from a three-run deficit for the season to a thirteen run advantage. Add to this that the Brewers offense is underperforming their batting statistics by .5 runs per game, and it looks like Milwaukee is for real. The team is scoring 5.0 runs per game, while the runs created formula puts them at 5.5. Bad luck has a tendency to turn around, and we've seen that in the last two contests. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM
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April 30, 2007
Other Questions
Permalink Where Have you gone, Andy Van Slyke asks why the Pirates took so long to promote Steve Pearce to AA? My question is why do you trade for LaRoche when you have this person in your minors? His seasonal age for 2007 is 24. At this point, he should be much higher than AA, he should be ready for the big leagues. If he continues to hit like this at AA, the Pirates should seriously consider bringing him to the majors. Pittsburgh owns too many old minor leaugers. There's no use letting another player age in their system. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:00 PM
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Four Weeks
Permalink The 2007 season hit the four week mark yesterday. So far, the big news remains the reduction in home runs. Versus the same point last season, runs are down 0.77 per game. Home runs are down 0.46 per game. At 1.6 runs per home run this season, the runs lost due to fewer home runs is 0.745 per game, or 97% of the difference. On the team front, two teams show signs of pulling away from their divisions. The Red Sox own the best record in the majors. They just finished taking five out of six from the Yankees, dropping New York into last place in the AL East. That might be the biggest surprise of the month. Boston presents a balanced attack. They score over five runs a game while allowing three and a half. Julien Tavarez stands out as the only bad pitcher on the staff, and the completion of Jon Lester's rehab likely fixes that problem. Okajima and Papelbon emerged as the best setup/closer in the game. The combination allowed one run so far, striking out 32 and walking 8 in 22 innings of work. Milwaukee turned out to be a consensus pick for first place in the NL Central, and right now they hold the biggest lead of any senior circuit team. Unlike the Red Sox, however, the Brewers record stands on a bit of luck. Opponents outscored Milwaukee 113-110 so far, meaning they should be much closer to .500. They're 8-3 in one and two games, however. The history of the Brewers show that they play well through the middle of May, then fall off. So far, they're on track for that type of season. Apart from the Yankees, the surprises at the bottom come from the NL Central, where Chicago, St. Louis and Houston bring up the rear. While neither the Astros nor the Cardinals are playing well, the Cubs outscored their opponents by twenty two runs! It's their 0-5 record in one run games that puts them 1/2 game above last in the division. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez carry the load offensively. But the big signing, Alfonso Soriano, hit poorly in April. If he did a better job setting up Lee and Ramirez, the Cubs might not play any close games. And then there are the last place Yankees. They've also outscored their opponents, but are just 1-5 in one-run games. While the problems are properly put at the feet of the pitching, this isn't a typical Yankees offense, either. While they get on base and slug with the best in the league, their batting average is a bit low for them at .268 (although this ranks fourth in the AL). This means for pitching staff that don't walk many batters, they have a much better chance of keep the Yankees offense down. The bullpen started the year strong, but of the eight AL pitchers with 14 or 15 appearances this season four are Yankees. Until the Yankees starters are able to go deep in games, Torre needs to start using his relievers longer in games to save some of these appearances. Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore are both scoring more runs than games played, and Alex is also driving in more than played. No one score and drove in more runs and RBI than games played (100 games) since Ruth and Gehrig both accomplished the feat in 1931, although in 1937 Joe DiMaggio scored 151 runs in 151 games while driving in 167. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM
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April 29, 2007
Sad Lineup
Permalink Take a look at the statistics for the White Sox starting lineup. Dye has the best OBA in the order with a .326 mark. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM
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April 27, 2007
No Saves
Permalink Jason writes: I was wondering if you could look up a record for me, since I haven't been able to locate it. What is the MLB record for the longest a team has gone into the season, without recording a save? The Yankees this year are now 20 games in without one, as upset about that as I am (being a Yankee fan), I was wondering what the record was. Obviously it'd have to date back to when the stat was first recorded. Thank you. Good question, and the answer is that the record is longer than I imagined. The save statistic became official in 1969.
The current Yankees streak of 20 games isn't even the team record. 1975 Was the year the save rule as we know it now came into existence. It could very well be that managers that season weren't managing to the rule yet. In other words, they might send a pitcher out to start the ninth with a platoon advantage, get one batter, then change pitchers. If the lead were three runs, the incoming pitcher would not get a save. It just goes to show how a stat changed baseball strategy. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:51 PM
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Giant Streak
Permalink After starting off 2-7, the Giants now sit 12-8. They've won eight in a row and are in first place in the NL West. Consistent pitching over the entire season now gets augmented by a decent offense. Actually, Barry Bonds carries the offense, and everyone else doubles. The offense posts a low .317 OBA during these 11 games, but a good team slugging percentage of .432. They're using power to make the most of the people on base. They've scored 54 runs in the 11 games, just under 5 per game, but they've only allowed 31. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM
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April 26, 2007
Astros Lose Again
Permalink The Houston Astros lost their sixth straight game today and sixth to the Pirates by a score of 5-3. Despite Tony Armas allowing six hits and four walks over five innings, the Astros scored just one run against him. For the game, they went 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position. That's been the problem all week as during the current streak they are 10 for 47 with runners in scoring position, a .213 batting average. To be fair, they're only batting .227 over the last six games overall. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:38 PM
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April 25, 2007
Power Turnaround
Permalink A big reason for the Brewers good start rest in their power numbers. They picked up three more extra base hits last night giving them 75 for the year. That ranks second in the National League behind the Marlins and 3rd in the majors. Last season, their 501 EXBH ranked twelfth in NL. The young guns are doing a lot of the damage, too, as Weeks, Fielder and Hardy combined for 32 of those 75 long hits. Their development was crucial to the improvement of the Brewers, and right now they look to be right on track. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM
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April 23, 2007
Hope and Despair
Permalink Where Have you Gone, Andy Van Slyke sees signs of hope and signs of despair in the Pirates play so far this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:28 PM
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Winning Ways
Permalink The Orioles sit in second place in the AL East, having taken five of their last six against AL East opponents and eight of their last nine overall. So far, the Orioles concentrating on the bullpen over the winter worked. While the starting staff is okay with a 4.55 ERA, the pen is shutting down the opposition. They've posted a 2.73 ERA so far, with great strikeout and walk numbers (58/19), 8.3 K per 9 IP. The offense is middle of the road, but one place where it excels is with men on base. Thirty one of the team's fifty five extra base hits came with men on base, exactly when you want to hit for power. The long hits drive runners further around the bases. If the starting pitching can close to the bullpen in productivity, this will be a good season for the Orioles. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM
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April 21, 2007
Hardy Move
Permalink The Brewers idea to put Hall in center and Hardy at short paid dividends tonight. Hardy homered twice to help Milwaukee to a 5-1 lead in the sixth, J.J. driving in three runs. Both are showing decent to good power as Hardy is now slugging .559 and Hall .483. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM
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April 20, 2007
Rangers Luck
Permalink Rangers fans may find his difficult to believe, but luck is on the side of the Rangers offense this season. So far in 2007, the Rangers scored 70 runs, 15 more than predicted by the runs created formula. Instead of ranking near the bottom of the majors in runs scored per game, they're in the middle of the pack. Basically, while the overall offense is terrible, the Rangers hit great with runners in scoring position. They're hitting .317 in that situation vs. .217 overall. On top of that, 9 of their 19 home runs came with men on base. Their long balls account for 32 of their 70 runs scored. Texas needs to find a way to get more men on base. A .291 team OBA is just not going to cut it the rest of the season. Luck has a way of running out. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 AM
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April 16, 2007
Cubs Complaints
Permalink Jack Cobra details the problems he sees with the Cubs during the first two weeks of the season. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM
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April 15, 2007
Mariners Come to Life
Permalink With a 10-4 lead over Texas in the sixth inning, Seattle's offense finally came to life. They've scored 18 runs in the last two games after managing just 20 in their first six games. New designated hitter Jose Vidro finally delivered some power as he goes deep twice, driving in four of the ten runs. Ichiro picked up three hits, and may be ready to go on one of his tears that pushes his batting average up quickly. Of course, it could just be the Texas pitching. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 06:08 PM
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April 12, 2007
Too Selective?
Permalink The Dodgers shut out the Colorado Rockies last night 3-0. Brad Penny started and last 6 1/3 innings. And while he did allow only two hits, he walked four with just three strikeouts. The Rockies hitters as a group are being decently selective this season. They've walked 31 times in 309 at bats for an OBA that is 75 points above their BA. But with a team batting average of just .239, that's not saying much. They're taking the pitches they should be taking, but not hitting the ones they can smack. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM
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The Best Offense
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays start the day tied with the Yankees for best runs per game in the major leagues. Each scored 52 runs in 8 games, 6.5 per game. So far, however, the Yankees runs involve an element of luck, while Toronto's runs estimate pegs their total exactly. Toronto's OBA sits 22 points higher than New York's. But they really shine in power. While the Yankees hit 10 home runs to the Blue Jay's 8, Toronto banged more doubles than the Yankees have extra-base hits. That gives the Canadians a 60 point lead in slugging percentage. Will it last? Consider two of the big guns in the first week of the season are Aaron Hill and Royce Clayton. Both have OBAs of about .440 and slugging percentage well over .500. I don't expect that to last. But Overbay and Thomas haven't warmed up yet, so there's hope that Toronto can continue to produce a high number of runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 AM
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April 10, 2007
Future Yankees?
Permalink Marc Hulet likes what he sees when the Devil Rays bat: On thing that struck me while watching the game was that it felt like I was watching the New York Yankees bat when the Rays' heart of the lineup was at the plate. It was the same feeling that these guys were going to get a hit each time up to the plate and that it was going to take a miracle to get them out. Dukes played a big part in that with his more patient approach. They aren't there yet but Baldelli, Crawford, Young, Dukes and even B.J. Upton and Iwamura could one day strike fear in pitchers like Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu. That's a pretty bold prediction. I still have my doubts are Baldelli and Crawford's ability to get on base. If they were going to be really outstanding, we would have seen it by now. But as for the other youngsters, the sky's the limit. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 AM
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April 09, 2007
The Games in April Matter
Permalink http://www.ballssticksstuff.com/2007/04/goosebumps.htmlBalls, Sticks and Stuff is a little too pessimistic this morning, but he makes a good point: Every year it seems, the Phillies start out slow, then go on a hot streak to get us all excited, before finally missing the playoffs by a game or two, maybe three, but whatever the final total, it always finalizes on the final weekends. If they miss out by a game or two again, they can blame their failure to play .500 ball in the first week of the season. Correction: Added the link. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 AM
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Good or Bad?
Permalink Nick Piecoro in the Arizona Republic wonders if the Diamondbacks sweep of the Nationals was due to Arizona's good play or Washington's ineptitude: Then again, sweeps involving the Nationals may soon become commonplace around here. With their starting rotation reduced to three journeymen, a rookie and John Patterson, the Nationals didn't have the lead at any point during this series and have led only once this season, when Dmitri Young's walk-off single won Wednesday's game against Jorge Julio and the Florida Marlins. Washington isn't hitting well overall, but all their averages drop about 100 points with runners in scoring position. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM
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April 07, 2007
Where's the Beef?
Permalink The Houston Astros lost their fourth game in a row, this time to the St. Louis Cardinals. The 4-2 score means the Astros run total for the season stands at 10, or 2.25 per game. That a tough obstacle for any pitching staff to overcome. The big reason rests with the heart of the order. Berkman, Lee and Ensberg combined to go 7 for 40 so far, a .175 batting average. And that BA represents nearly all their offensive output. None of the seven hits went for extra bases, and Berkman's two walks are the only base on balls. And just for good measure, they struck out more than they've hit (10 vs. 7). This should be one of the best middle of the orders in the division, but until they start hitting, the Astros are going to find it difficult to win. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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April 05, 2007
Losing Ways
Permalink Cardinals Diaspora seems to be taking the start of the season in stride. People. Friends, if I may. I'd like to sit here and tell you the sky isn't falling. Unfortunately, the sky is falling. And it's falling quickly. Oh, did I mention this weekend Lance Berkman is ready to check swing 4 "home runs" into the Crapford Boxes. Johnny Drama had it right all along...the pain has just begun. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM
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April 01, 2007
Athletics Mess, Part II
Permalink Following up on the A's post from earlier, Oakland finalized their roster and Travis Buck makes the team. That means Swisher plays first and Buck starts in the outfield. That's a decent arrangement. The pitching is still a pray for rain scenario after the Har-Har's, but the offense looks a bit better right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:53 PM
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Athletics a Mess
Permalink Injuries are throwing Oakland into a bit of disarray as the season starts. With Dan Johnson out for half a season and Durazo not hitting, the A's are going with Todd Walker as their starting first baseman. Now, Loaiza comes down with a last minute injury: In a little more than 36 hours, Loaiza went from being the No. 2 starter in the A's rotation to No. 5, and the disabled list is a possibility. The timing couldn't be worse for the A's, who are required to submit their 25-man Opening Day roster to the league by noon today. They open the 2007 season Monday afternoon in Seattle. Given that the candidates for the fifth slot in the rotation were pretty awful in spring training, this does not bode well for the A's in April. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM
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March 29, 2007
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Permalink A Cubs fan and a Cardinals fan debate the 2007 season over at Three Man Lift. I like the Cubs fan take on the Cardinals health: So, let me make sure I'm reading this correctly. You are hoping the third baseman, a key starting pitcher, an entire outfield and the closer are all going to stay healthy?? I hope to one day make sweet pupply love to Jessica Alba and I think my chances are better. I'm picking the Astros to win the division. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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March 27, 2007
Dozen Hurlers
Permalink The Red Sox are going to start Jon Lester at Greenville, SC. And they picked 12 pitchers for the opening day roster. The Red Sox open the season Monday in Kansas City with Curt Schilling starting. The rest of the rotation is Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and Julian Tavarez. The bullpen consists of closer Jonathan Papelbon, Brad Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, J.C. Romero, Hideki Okajima, Snyder and Lopez. That's six pitchers with the first initial J. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM
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March 26, 2007
Who's On First?
Permalink Billfer wonders if Chris Shelton will make the Tigers opening day roster, and how the Tigers might get playing time for all their first basemen. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM
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March 23, 2007
DysPHunctional Phllies
Permalink Mike Rants about the poor construct of the Phillies 25 man roster. They cut utility infielder Danny Sandoval, who committed six errors in thirteen games, and two pitchers who were supposed to be part of the bullpen mix, Brian Sanchez and Justin Germano (who was claimed on waivers by the Padres) among others. Minor cuts surely. However, they demonstrate how deeply, how fundamentally fouled up this team is. Mike thinks the team wins just 75 games this season, rather than compete for the division title. The counter argument to that is, what if the starters stay healthy all year? This strikes me as a team that is not going to be very dependent on their bench. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM
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March 20, 2007
Same Hope, Different City
Permalink Joe Posnanski notes that his springs haven't changed much since his childhood: I find it both goofy and oddly touching that the Kansas City Royals train in a city called "Surprise." It's a bit like Bill Clinton being from a place called Hope. Every year, I come here, get stuck in the quagmire that is suburban Phoenix traffic, eat at various chain restaurants with names like Carrabas, and every year I feel that pointless, self-destructive but undeniable feeling that the Royals really COULD surprise, you know, if twenty or two hundred things happened to go right. He also lists the ten worst seasons by a player since he arrived in KC in 1996 to see how many Royals make the cut. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM
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March 19, 2007
A's Grades
Permalink Melissa Lockard sums up her trip to see the Athletics in Phoenix. Good grades for the bullpen and youngsters, not so much for the starting pitching and position players. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:05 PM
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Improving the Phillies
Permalink The Good Phight likes the idea of the Phillies taking a chance on making Michael Bourn the everyday centerfielder, then trading the redundant players on the team. The answer might well be "yes." The rumored deal of Rowand and Lieber for some combination of top prospect Josh Fields, setup reliever Mike McDougal and a third player--maybe utility man Rob Mackowiak, maybe lefty bullpen prospect Boone Logan--would shore up the bullpen, strengthen the bench while adding a possible long-term answer at third base or in an outfield corner, and dramatically lower the payroll. There's also a good discussion of Rollins as a leadoff hitter, basically saying that despite his low OBA, he does a good job of scoring runs due to his power and speed. There is still a cost, however, in outs, and those outs take chances away from Utley and Howard. In a way it's the Vince Coleman/Wade Boggs argument. Vince would make up for his low OBA by using his speed to score often when he was on base. Boggs reached base a lot, but it was tough for him to move more than one base at a time. So the runs scored evened out. But Boggs, by making fewer outs, expanded the offensive context for the rest of the team, increasing the run scoring capacity of the team as a whole. That's what Jimmy fails to do as a leadoff hitter. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM
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March 16, 2007
Go West
Permalink The Baseball Analysts hold a round table on the AL West. Jeff Sullivan talks about the Mariners: I think I've written "the Mariners are the worst team in a weak division" a million times this winter, but it seems like every time I do, I come away even less impressed with the best than I was before. Put simply, neither Oakland nor Anaheim are very good, and there might only be a five- or six-win separation between the top and bottom rosters in the group. That's a tiny, tiny gap, and the sort of thing that makes for a wild September. Having read Lookout Landing all winter, I was expecting this team to be really bad. But when I looked at the team for my podcast two weeks ago, I was surprised at just how competitive they are with the rest of the division. Mostly, there's a lot of room for improvement and not much room for players to do worse than last year. In a way, they remind me of the Tigers at the start of 2006. If everything goes well, if everyone stays healthy, if they get a great season from Hernandez, they can win the division. Now, I'm talking about Hernandez having a Gooden 1985/Clemens 1986 type season, but stranger things have happened. It should be a fun division race. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM
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Which Jose?
Permalink Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke explores the Pirates options at third. He doesn't like either Jose, but would rather see Bautista there than Castillo. I have to agree. At least Bautista isn't a complete offensive black hole. If he can catch the ball at all, play him at third. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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March 15, 2007
Where's the Offense
Permalink My Baseball Bias doesn't like what he's seen from the Devil Rays hitters so far this spring. And while you need to take two weeks of spring training games with a grain of salt, he makes a very good point here: Are there reasons for concern? I would say yes even though it's a very small sample size. Their current team K/BB ratio is 4:1, which tells us that this is still a very impatient group of hitters. The correct spin might be that they've been working toward specific goals in games, and once the we get closer to the season they'll start playing to win. But you would think that being selective at the plate would be part of that plan. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 PM
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March 12, 2007
Do the Pirates Have a Big League Lineup?
Permalink Paul Meyer talks about the Pittsburgh lineup transformation since acquiring Adam LaRoche: "You say, 'Wow! We have a pretty good lineup now that he's in there,"' shortstop Jack Wilson said. "We had a couple holes in the past. I don't see any holes anymore, to be honest." So what is a big league lineup? One without holes? Jack Wilson sports a career .306 OBA and a career .368 slugging percentage. I'm pretty sure I could drive a truck through that hole. Chris Duffy, who according the article will bat second, boasts a .336/.364 OBA and slugging percentage. It's a small sample, but he didn't get to the majors until he was 25, which is also a clue to how good he is. So far, the truck is pretty big at the top of the order. And at the bottom of the order will be Jose Castillo, he of the .301/.388 OBA/Slugging. Combined with the pitchers hitting, the 8-9-1-2 rotation of the order looks to be a barren wasteland for runs. The best thing you can say about this lineup is the best hitters are at least grouped together. But the Pirates are going to give the pitcher a break every other inning, so I doubt they'll do much damage overall. Correction: Fixed Castillo's OBA. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM
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Rays Roster
Permalink Rays Index looks at how the Devil Rays roster is developing. What I like is that the oldest projected starting hitter is Wigginton at seasonal age 29. Six of the nine are under 27 years old in 2007, meaning most of the team is moving toward a peak together. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM
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March 11, 2007
Projecting the Cubs
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue put together community projections for the Cubs. The projections for the hitters look pretty good, so I ran them through the Lineup Analysis tool with a likely Piniella lineup. This isn't the best according to that calculation, but it does score over half a run better per game than last year's team. It also shows the difficulty of going from worst to first. The increase in offense with the above lineup takes them to 79 wins. That's 13 above last year's total, but ten above their Pythagorean projection for 2006. They still need to bring the their runs allowed down by an equal amount if they want to have a definite shot at the playoffs. People don't think it will take that many wins to capture the NL Central, but you never know. Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM
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March 09, 2007
Center of Attention
Permalink Athletics Supporters notes the lack of centerfield depth on the great Oakland Athletics' roster. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM
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March 07, 2007
Twins By Position
Permalink Nick and Nick start their annual position analysis of the Twins with a look at catcher. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM
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March 05, 2007
Maybe They Should Keep the Devil in the Name
Permalink John Donovan notes the Devil Rays are likely to field their most talented team ever, especially with three of their more devilish youngsters coming to the majors. So far, they're handling themselves well: Young, 21, listens to a visitor's questions and readies to punch them back like so many batting practice fastballs. He spends way more time talking about his bat-toss than he does about his future, making it all but impossible to put the incident behind him. Let's hope that prediction works out. Dukes is later quoted as saying that this team can finish over .500. We'll see about that, but I'd much rather see a team losing with developing talent than with over-the-hill free agents. You'd rather be the 1986 Twins than the 2006 Orioles. What does bother me a bit is all three of these trouble makers look like they're headed for outfield spot. I'd be a lot more impressed if Upton ends up in the middle infield. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM
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March 04, 2007
The Outfield Shuffle
Permalink Athletic Supports examines the situation in the Athletics' outfield. It seems to me Dan Johnson's eye care might solve the problem. If his batting eye comes back, Swisher can move to the outfield full time. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM
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February 16, 2007
Brewer Outfield
Permalink Brew Crew Ball is very happy with Ned Yosts' outfield arrangement. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM
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February 14, 2007
Seeing Angels
Permalink The Long Beach Press Telegram offers a comprehensive preview of the LAnaheim Angels. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 AM
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February 06, 2007
Seattle Cardinals
Permalink Detect-o-Vision is rather positive about the Mariners chances this year, and compares their rotatin favorably to the 2006 Cardinals. He's assuming, of course, that the new, slimmer King Felix turns out to be Chris Carpenter. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM
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February 05, 2007
Too Lefty?
Permalink WasWatching suggests the Yankees lineup might be too left-handed, making them vulnerable to a LOOGY. In general, I don't think the Yankees lineup can be too left-handed. Besides, Matsui hits lefties just fine, and Jason manages a .385 OBA against southpaws since signing with New York. I just don't see a big problem putting the two back to back. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM
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Stark on the Cubs
Permalink Jayson Stark takes an in-depth look at the Cubs and their off-season moves. One thing I really like is that Hendry realizes the fans need a winner: Hendry still recalls looking around, during the seventh inning of the final game of last season -- a season in which the Cubs lost more games (96) than every team in baseball except the Royals and Devil Rays. What he saw, amazingly, was 33,000 people still hanging out in the seats of Wrigley Field. That sight told him something. The Cubs, Indians and Giants have a huge obligation to their fans to deliver winners. It's good to see the Cubs taking that seriously in 2007. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:52 PM
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Little Reds
Permalink Redleg Nation asks for comments on the direction the Reds are taking this year. Are the Reds too concerned with pitching and defense and not enough with offense? Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM
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February 01, 2007
NL Infields
Permalink FishStripes is very happy the Marlins rank fourth among NL infields. It looks to me that you could put the first three in any order and have an equally good ranking. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:24 PM
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NL Infields
Permalink FishStripes is very happy the Marlins rank fourth among NL infields. It looks to me that you could put the first three in any order and have an equally good ranking. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:24 PM
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January 31, 2007
Rockies Positives
Permalink Jacob Luft is changing his mind about Colorado: But after taking a closer look at Colorado's talent corps and the moves they made this winter, I have to admit I've been selling them short. They won only 76 games last season but played five games below their run differential, so they were really more like a .500 team. The difference between a .500 team and a wild-card contender is only about five victories, and keeping Helton in the fold gives them a better chance of getting those extra five wins than if he were gone. He is coming off two injury-plagued seasons, but if he's as healthy as has been reported, then he is still the type of hitter you can build an offense around for a few years. (Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system has him slated for a .303-.396-.501 batting line in 2007. This mostly explains what the Red Sox were thinking in trying to acquire him. I have to agree. If they can repeat the pitching of 2006, an offensive surge by Helton would go a long way toward making them a winning team. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:59 PM
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January 29, 2007
Rockies Negativity
Permalink Bernie Lincicome is about as down on the Rockies as a writer can get. He argues that Todd Helton should be traded for anything Colorado can get, just to give Todd a chance to play for a winning team. The reality is, with Helton or without Helton, the Rockies will wobble on to unsurprising inadequacy. Mediocrity is a reach and distinction is impossible. I thought the Rockies made some progress with their pitching last year. That's been their downfall for a long time. If they get a staff in place, it shouldn't be tough to bring in some hitters. And it their division, a lucky season could easily push them to the top. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM
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January 25, 2007
Left Side Improvements
Permalink The Cleveland Indians are taking a proactive approach to the left side of their infield: At the urging of manager Eric Wedge and general manager Mark Shapiro, Marte, shortstop Jhonny Peralta and utility infielder Hector Luna skipped winter ball and have worked out at the Indians' academy in the Dominican Republic. Marte also spent time in Tampa, Fla., with hitting coach Derek Shelton. He and Peralta returned to Cleveland recently to spend more time with the big-league staff, and in the coming weeks infield coach Luis Rivera will join them in the Dominican Republic for more work on their defense. Peralta's defense nose-dived last year. It looks like the Indians spent the winter making sure he's in top physical shape, and now they'll drill him on defense. Good to see they're not waiting for the problem to solve itself. And Marte appears to be an important part of this: It was no coincidence that Peralta's play improved -- however slightly -- when Marte was promoted from triple-A in late July and replaced Aaron Boone at third base. The outgoing, oft-smiling Marte was a good complement to the introverted Peralta. They became fast friends, and they have strengthened the bond this winter as they strengthen their bodies. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM
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January 23, 2007
Cubs OBA
Permalink Midway Chat wonders if the Cubs are really paying more attention to on-base average. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM
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January 22, 2007
The Future of the Pirates
Permalink The near term success of the Pirates organization is discussed today at Pittsburgh Pirates Roundtable. Yours truly contributes one of the articles. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:16 PM
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January 21, 2007
Disrespecting the Disrespected
Permalink The Baltimore Sun notes the Sporting News heaped insult on injury when it named the Orioles to the "Feeble Foursome" of the worst franchises in each sport: And how disrespectful is this? The pieces at sportingnews.com on the other three members of what Sporting News calls the "Feeble Foursome" at least are real articles. The Orioles get only a chronology - lists of dates with short summaries of what happened. Is the ranking fair to the Orioles? Why not Kansas City or Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh? In my opinion, it's resources. A rich organization, the Orioles just waste money. That puts them at the bottom. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM
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January 17, 2007
Winning Without Abreu
Permalink Phil Sheridan likes the attitude of the Phillies this year: There isn't much chance the Phillies deliberately attempted to add energy and attitude to their roster by emulating the Eagles' mid-season resurgence. Phil then goes on to bash the number guys who like Abreu. This issue is best understood by looking at last year's trade of Abreu to the New York Yankees. Well into October, many e-mailers complained that the Phillies would have won the extra couple games needed to reach the playoffs if they hadn't foolishly given Abreu away. But the fact is, the team didn't really start playing well together and winning until Abreu was gone. This reminded me of something from early Bill James Baseball Abstracts. Bill published numbers of team records when players appeared in a game. At the time, he thought they were interesting, so I thought I'd look up the Phillies numbers. Abreu's record actually gives more ammunition to Sheridan. In that 49-54 stretch, the Phillies were 44-54 with Abreu in a game, 5-0 without him. Now, I and you should take this with a big grain of salt. For example:
The other three games were blowouts right before the trade happened. So, what difference would Bobby make in those games? The team didn't hit in two of them, and everybody hit in three of them! Bobby is a good player. Having him in a game should make the team better. The fact that it didn't seems to be more a factor of luck than Bobby not being a hustling player.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 AM
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Remember the '60s?
Permalink Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM
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January 15, 2007
From Rebuilding To Winning
Permalink Doug Melvin recognizes it's time for the Brewers to win: If there was any doubt about the Milwaukee Brewers' expectations for the upcoming season, general manager Doug Melvin set everyone straight Thursday night at the Brewers' Winter Warm-Up event at Miller Park. Good. Melvin's had his five years to rebuild. It's time to deliver. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM
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January 04, 2007
Gloves at First
Permalink I find it strange that the weakest offensive position for the Yankees next year will be at first base. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM
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December 31, 2006
Golden Tickets
Permalink Michael Klitzing compares the Padres to Charlie Bucket. The Padres haven't been as active (read: insane) as others teams this offseason, and I understand why that might not sit well with their fans. It could be that the Padres are developing more like the Athletics. Good enough to be in contention and win most years, but not good enough to go deep in the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM
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December 23, 2006
Improving Without Overspending
Permalink Daniel Rathman at Baseballistic praises the moves the Cleveland Indians made this off season: Coming into this winter, the Indians had openings at 2nd-base, leftfield, and late-inning relief. GM Mark Shapiro knew that he needed to add a significant number of players, either via trade or free agency, and his strategy of plugging holes early and concentrating on adding depth later could not be better suited for this sort of offseason. Daniel believes Shapiro set up this team to be a contender for years to come. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM
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December 19, 2006
In the Red
Permalink Jim Morris notes the Reds are doing nothing to keep up with the Joneses: Not long ago, the Chicago White Sox were dangling big right-hander Jon Garland in front of the Houston Astros. The trade fell through, but there was no question Garland was available. Usually, when a team comes as close to making the playoffs as the Reds did, it spurs them on to improve during during the off season. The Reds are acting more like they won the World Series. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM
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December 18, 2006
Names in a Hat
Permalink Bob McManaman notes that given the starting eight for Arizona, Bob Melvin doesn't have an obvious lineup: "We really don't have a prototypical leadoff guy; we really don't have a prototypical No. 4 guy," Melvin said. "We've got lots of guys that we feel like are 2, 3, 5, 6 guys. . . . If those are our biggest problems, then we can figure a way out to do something at least day to day on lineups. It doesn't have to be a set lineup every day." Bob can always try this. The numbers are career numbers for everyone but Chris Young. For Chris, I used his Bill James Baseball Handbook projection. For the pitchers, I used 2006 Arizona pitchers combined. (Just to be complete, here's the lineup using 2007 projections.) One thing I like about the Arizona lineup is that while they don't have one player who is outstanding at getting on base, most of their players are above average. That should give the team an above average OBA and above average run scoring. They just need to get the pitchers ERA below average so they can win. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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December 16, 2006
Stocking up at Short
Permalink TheWisconsinSportsBar wants to know what Doug Melvin is going to do with all those shortstops, especially if he acquires Clint Barmes. I would guess, since there are teams that always need a shortstop, he's looking to trade from a strength. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:58 PM
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December 13, 2006
Waiting to Build
Permalink Jeff Sackmann notes the lack of winter moves by the Nationals despite losing players. This does not bode well for the team winning in 2007: Just how bad could Washington's squad be next year? Barring a Jim Bowden megatrade, the answer to that question begins and ends with the starting rotation. MLB.com provides a depth chart for all 30 major league teams, and for most teams, that means a list of six or more starters along with 10-12 relievers, the group from which the pitching staff will be selected come March. The Nats chart, however, doesn't deserve the adjective "depth." It lists only three starting pitchers: John Patterson, Michael O'Connor, and Shawn Hill. He's pegging the Nats at 71 wins next year, and for the forseeable future. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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December 04, 2006
Giant Complaints
Permalink John Perricone lists how he'd like to see the Giants develop the team. The Giants would be better off just running the Triple AAA team out there with these pitchers, and see what happens. Again, young players at least have upside. Barring the use of illegal PED's, old players have little more than the hope that they neither decline nor fall to injury. I agree. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM
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Deep in the Holes of Texas
Permalink Scott Miller details the shambles of the Texas Rangers roster: In Chicago, they're signing every free agent who happens to answer his telephone -- Alfonso Soriano! Aramis Ramirez! Kerry Wood! Manager Lou Piniella! Henry Blanco! Mark DeRosa! GM Jim Hendry is on the phone so often, the prediction here is, the Cubs accidentally will invite a couple of telemarketers and a pizza guy to spring camp, too. I'm not sure DeRosa leaves that big a hole at third base. Hank Blalock is still there. True, he's put up two straight poor seasons, but at least the Rangers have someone at the position. And all this roster disorder might be good for Texas in the long run. Maybe they turn inward and start developing some talent. It's not such a terrible idea to give some minor leaguers major league playing time to see what happens. The might just uncover a gem without spending a lot of money. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM
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December 03, 2006
Thinking Small
Permalink John Paul Morosi notes the Tigers strong hand in future trades, but he's not asking for enough: The Tigers, meanwhile, could not imagine a better marketplace. They like their pitching. Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander are locks for the 2007 rotation. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson will likely be retained, rather than traded. And, as it stands now, Maroth is the fifth starter. Talentwise, Mahay for Maroth makes some sense. The age difference, however, would make this a very short term deal for the Tigers. Given the lack of pitching on the Rangers, I'm guessing Dombrowski could get more than a 36-year-old reliever. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 AM
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November 29, 2006
Too Many Platoons?
Permalink Erik Cassano wonders if the Indians are headed toward too many platoons in 2007. Tuesday's agree-to-terms with outfielder David Dellucci ostensibly adds yet another platoon player to the mix for the Indians. Left-handed hitting Dellucci will likely start against righties and play left field, while right-handed hitting Jason Michaels will start against lefties. Erik is worried that: "versatile" is just a euphemism for "not good enough to play everyday." But I like the idea. Another way of putting it is the Indians have a group that can play today. Of course, they'd have to go back to the nine man pitching staff to pull this off, another reason I'd like to see it happen. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM
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November 25, 2006
AAA Giants?
Permalink The Giants are striking out on all their attempts to sign free agents, leaving them a shell of a team: The Giants' committed pursuit of Lee signaled the club's willingness to move on without Barry Bonds. Lee and Bonds are restricted to left field, and the Giants do not have the luxury of a designated hitter. Maybe this will force the Giants to rebuild young. It could take some time, however. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM
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November 14, 2006
Marlins Money
Permalink Greg Cote editorializes in the Miami Herald that the Marlins should be more aggressive in improving the team: Indications are that the club plans to stand pat with its cheap-o payroll, with a budget plan that will leave little left over after stars Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are secured for the future. The Marlins should be able to take on at least another $30 million in payroll (after all, the current payroll is covered by revenue sharing). The question is, should it be now? In general, I'd say yes, simply because adding payroll and talent for this team is easy. But in general, a team should be allowed to develop so you know exactly what hole need to be filled. A good example of this was the Cleveland Indians of the early 1990s. They put together a young talented team, but let that group gel for two or three years before they brought in Hershiser, Martinez and Murray to make the run for the World Series. While I'd love to see Florida add a couple of star players to see what happens, I also understand it may not be the best plan for the organization. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM
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November 12, 2006
Looking for a Hitter
Permalink I get the feeling the Twins are having a tough time finding a DH. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM
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November 06, 2006
Pricing the Marlins
Permalink Fishstripes links to an estimation of the Marlins payroll for 2007. As you'd expect, it's very low, about $24 million. However, I'd like to point out that this estimation keeps a number of the young Marlins at the league minimum. I don't think that will happen. Most second-year players get a raise of some kind. I'm sure that will happen here, but it won't change the bottom line much. This is why the Marlins are a scary team to me. They won 78 games last year and finished 10 games out of the wild card. What if you replace Hermida and Moehler with Soriano and Zito? According to win shares, Alfonso and Barry combined for 48 win shares in 2006. Moehler and Hermida combined for five. That's nine wins for the Marlins, and their team salary still comes in under $60 million. It doesn't matter when it happens. The Marlins are developing a good team. When the time is right, they can easily pull the trigger and make themselves contenders over night with the addition of two top notch free agents. If they ever get a stadium deal, look for something like this to happen. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM
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October 30, 2006
Blue Jays Ways
Permalink Allan Ryan takes a comprehensive look at the needs of the Blue Jays in the off season. Here's one: A 3-4-5 type of starter, maybe two, if they can't re-sign free agent Ted Lilly; a No. 4-5 type if they do. In general, I don't want a rotation that actually has a 3-4-5 starter. I'd much rather own a rotation that consists of three or four #2 starters. Now, if all you can afford is a pitcher with a 4.20 ERA, I understand the targeting. But you really should be looking for a number 2 starter who for whatever reason looks to everyone else like a number three starter (bad defense behind him led to a high ERA, for example). Then you get a deal. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM
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October 29, 2006
Confident Tigers
Permalink Some members of the Detroit Tigers are talking about a dynasty: ``Hopefully, we look back in just a few years and see that this was a building block for our organization,'' 23-year-old pitcher Justin Verlander said, in the aftermath of the Tigers' 4-2 Game 5 World Series loss to St. Louis. ``Maybe it becomes a dynasty. Who knows?'' The pitching is certainly young and good. But the best offensive players are over 30, and only Granderson is truly young. The good news is that if the pitching remains as good as it was in 2006, you don't need much of an offense to win. Simply putting a slugger at first base improves the Tigers run scoring. I can see them getting back next season, although they have plenty of competition from Minnesota and Chicago. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:25 PM
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Mariners Bind
Permalink John Hickey writes on the Mariners needs and shows the problem with signing too many free agents: Seattle has had three consecutive last-place finishes, and if things are going to change, general manager Bill Bavasi and his crew see the need for an influx of starting pitching. Whether by trade, by free agent signings or by posting (in the case of Japanese star Daisuke Matsuzaka), the Mariners need to add a minimum of two, and maybe three, starting pitchers. The reason they need to go that route? Don't look for the Mariners (or many other teams) to move quickly in free agency. If a club waits until the first week of December, after clubs have offered their own free agents salary arbitration, the signing club can get the player without giving up a draft pick. It's a vicious cycle. Teams sign top free agents, lose draft picks, and when those free agents age or don't work out, there's no one in the minors to trade or promote. So the team ends up signing more free agents, and fall further behind in the minors. Sometimes a team needs to step back and take a few losing seasons to rebuild the minors. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM
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Hope for Ohio
Permalink The Beane Count for 2006 gives some hope to fans of the Indians and the Reds, as both Ohio teams finished first in their leagues in the Rob Neyer stat that uses home runs and walks collected and allowed. No team dominated every category this season, but the Indians were good in all of them. The Indians main problem this year was defense. They put up the second lowest DER of any AL team. Combined with the second lowest K per 9 in the AL, also those extra balls in play turned into hits. Some combination of better defense and more strikeouts to take pressure off the fielders should help the team in 2007. The Reds dominated three of the four Beane Count categories, finishing 2nd in offensive home runs and walks, and first in walks allowed. But they were dead last in the NL in home runs allowed. The Reds offense is fine, their pitchers keep batters off base. They just need to reduce their fly ball percentage, which was 39% in 2006, not the highest in the league but close. Given their home park, it's dangerous to be high in that stat. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 AM
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October 03, 2006
True Brew
Permalink Frank Bundy is very pround he nailed the Brewers won-loss record for 2006. You can read his two-part analysis here and here. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM
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Frog Reviews
Permalink The Sports Frog is hosting reviews of the 2006 season for every MLB team. You can read the Braves review here. Keep your eye out for more. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:47 PM
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October 01, 2006
Offense in the Red
Permalink After being eliminated from playoff competition yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds can blame an underperforming offense. The runs created formula predicted the Reds to score 4.96 runs per game; they scored 4.65. There are three things which might account for this:
I believe the first two account for most of the problem, but look at how the lineup shook out during the season. The best hitter in the lineup is in the six hole, while one of the worst is in the three hole. The thing about having that good a hitter that far down in the lineup is that the pitcher will come up with men on base too often. I know lineups don't matter that much, but the construction of this one left something to be desired. If the Reds lived up to their runs projection, they score about 48 runs more. That's four or five games in the standings, which puts them in the playoffs. However, they also over performed their Pythagorean projection of wins by five games, so overall their luck evened out. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM
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September 25, 2006
From Road Kill to Road Warriors
Permalink Nick and Nick note the Twins finished with a winning record on the road despite their horrible start. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM
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September 23, 2006
Sox Sliding Away
Permalink The Mariners lead the White Sox 7-2 during a sixth innings rain delay. They are only 7-14 in September. In 2005, they followed a bad August with a 19-12 September to take the division. This season, their bad month came in July, but another one hit now. In July, it was poor pitching. Now it's the hitting that's fallen on hard times. A big culprit here is Joe Crede. Joe was having a career year until September hit. This month, he's getting on base at a .275 clip, and his slugging percentage is even lower. Couple that with a few other players stats dropping down a bit and you have a team going down the tubes. If the Mariners hold on, the Tigers will secure a playoff spot with a win. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM
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September 19, 2006
No Depth
Permalink Nick Johnson homered to put the Nationals up 1-0 on the Braves. It's Johnson's 23rd home run of the year, and with a .430 OBA and a .527 slugging percentage, he's having a fine year. The Nationals employee three players who already earned 20 win shares or more; Soriano, Johnson and Zimmerman. But no one else has more than 10. It's a great example of a team doing a good job of putting three stars on the field, but not surrounding them with enough competent players to allow them to win. Compare that to the Cardinals, for example. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM
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Hope for the Future
Permalink Redleg Nation doesn't see a bright near term future for the Reds as others do. I'm decidedly less-optimistic about the Reds' short-term prospects. I fear that "The Trade" has done serious damage to the cause of a winning team next year. The offense is no longer the slugging wonder that it was, and the pitching hasn't been improved one bit. On top of everything else, it's time to look for a replacement for Ken Griffey. Even without the injury, the .315 OBA is just unacceptable, even for a power hitter. He's not getting any faster in center, either. Ryan Freel, who is 30 years old, is a decent stop-gap. But the Reds should be looking for a youngster to take over the position for many years. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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September 18, 2006
Rays Home and Road
Permalink Devon Young writes in regards to this post on the Devil Rays: Your post about the D-Rays has got my noodle baking. After what you were saying & then finding they've gone 4-31 on the road since June 18th, I decided to check their home/road splits since 1998 and here's what I found -- It could be that they play in such an extreme ballpark that building them to play well at home hurts them on the road. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 PM
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Devil Rays Last
Permalink On Saturday, the Royals moved past the Devil Rays in the standings. The Devil Rays are on a seven game losing streak, and once again appear headed for a 100 loss season. It's a bit surprising, since they got off to a decent start for the team. Through the end of June, the team was 35-45; that's not going to win you anything, but you're not a door mat either. They were in line for 71 wins. Tampa even posted a winning record in June! Now they'll be lucky to win 61. What went wrong? The pitching staff and the offense both went south in July. In August, the pitchers rebounded but the offense switched from no on-base some power to a little on base no-power. In September, everyone is bad again. Losing Scott Kazmir to injury and Hendrickson and Lugo to trade didn't help. It's a young team going through a tryout period. I'd rather have that than a bunch of over the hill veterans who used to be good. But for the ninth year of their existence, they're losing over 90 games, and quite possibly 100. With young players, however, they have to do better than Crawford and Baldelli. Both put up their best OBA seasons, and were in the mid .340s. With their power, they're fine role players, but teams need stars that get on base a whole lot more than that. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM
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September 17, 2006
Pirates Sweep
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates took the third game of their series with the Mets today, sweeping the best team in the National League. Since August 11th, the Pirates are 21-14, the same record as New York. The win means the Pirates won't lose 100 games this season, and the strong finish gives them some hope for next year. Zach Duke is a big part of that comeback. He's allowed 16 earned runs in 59 1/3 innings over that time, a 2.43 ERA, including his eight shutout innings today. They've also been getting some good OBA's from their hitters, making Jason Bay's power more effective. The Mets are still one win or one Philly loss from clinching the NL East. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM
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September 11, 2006
Versus the Best
Permalink How do you get a feel for the possible success of teams in the post season? One way might be to look how successful teams are against good pitchers. Now, if a ballclub is facing one of the league leaders in ERA, you might not expect them to do very well. A .500 record against this group of pitchers would be a good thing. If you're headed to the playoffs, chances are you're going to come up against a team with good pitching, possibly much better average pitching than you faced in the regular season. How you fare against that kind of pitching might give us a clue as to how you'll do in the post season. I haven't done this is a long time, but in 1990 I was looking at this quite closely. The Athletics were doing very well against the league ERA leaders until the last month of the season. They went into a tail spin against these pitchers, but I didn't think much of it. Then, when the Reds swept them away I realized I might have missed a signal. The in 1998, there was an argument in a Baseball Tonight production meeting about the ability of the Padres to beat the Braves in the post season. One of the associate producers argued that the Braves offense could be shut down by good pitching, so the Padres would beat them. I pulled the old program out, and sure enough it showed the Braves had a lousy record vs. the league leaders in ERA. The Padres won. Obviously, I need to do more research to see if this really is a good signal. But I wanted to look at the data for this year, to see if it might give us clues to 2006 post-season success. I took the top 40 pitchers in ERA, and looked at their combined stats versus every team. What you see is basically a backward pitching line. It's team wins and losses vs. those pitchers. A good win loss record in this table indicates the team did well against good pitchers.
Lots of interesting information here. It's amazing Arizona isn't running away with the West given their record against good pitchers. Maybe they all line up against Webb. The Marlins are the exact opposite. They're battling for the wild card even though they don't do well against the best pitchers. The two teams to watch out for in the post season are the Yankees and Dodgers (that post-season matchup would certainly make Fox happy). The Mets are the type of team I'm looking for here. New York owns the best record in baseball, but is susceptible to pitchers with low ERAs with an 11-19 record. These pitchers post a 3.72 ERA against New York; the Met usually score 5.3 runs per game. Oakland is in even worse shape at 8-16, although they haven't lost a game to a good pitcher since August 1st (they're 2-0). A Mets opponent with a good, deep pitching staff can cause a real headache for the team in the playoffs. Keep your eye out for this, and I'll try to do more historical research on this indicator. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM
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September 05, 2006
Twins Concerns
Permalink Nick and Nick are happy to see the Twins in the wild card lead but are concerned about the offense: It's always nice to see a victory, but troubling trends continued for the Twins. All their run production in the game came on one swing of the bat from Rondell White, who drove a two-run homer into the left field seats in the seventh inning. That is not exactly unusual for the Twins as of late. In their last eight games, they have scored 17 runs (ick) and 12 of those have come in on home runs. What that tells us is that the offense is not putting rallies together, and the so-called piranha hitters are not doing their jobs. Of course it doesn't help that Luis Castillo has been hurt and just returned to the lineup yesterday, but Nick Punto is slumping (.130 average over the last week) and Jason Tyner continues to do nothing but hit singles (has not drawn a walk since August 8; has just four extra-base hits in 166 at-bats this season). And then there's Joe Mauer, who collected a couple walks yesterday but went hitless, dropping his average to .346 on the season. Now, it's hard to complain too much about a guy with a .346/.427/.498 line on the season, but Mauer is slumping at just about the worst possible time and I think his impact on this offense is becoming very clear when you look at how badly the team is struggling to score runs without him getting on base. The Twins offense is playing a very symmetrical season. Cold in April and September, very good in May and August, and red hot in June and July. April was probably the anomaly, and there should be enough offense from others even if Mauer is tiring down the stretch. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM
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August 31, 2006
The Streakers
Permalink The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-3 behind another fine performance by Greg Maddux. The veteran righty was certainly one of the best deals at the trade deadline, considering the Dodgers gave up spare parts for him. The win extended the Dodgers win streak to five and the Reds losing streak to 6. It's been tough to get a handle on these two teams over the course of the season because they are so streaky. If you look at streaks of four games or more, Cincinnati has five win streaks of that length, and five losing streaks. In their streaks, the Reds are 26-27, which pretty much matches their record for the year, .500. The Dodgers also experienced five losing streak, also totalling 27 games. But the Dodgers went through more and longer winning streaks, six streak totalling 38 wins. The Dodgers are 11 games over .500 in the streaks, nine games over .500 overall. So teams get hot and teams get cold, but overall these things even out. The Reds are a .500 team, and their streaks reflect that. The Dodgers are a better than.500 team, and their streaks reflect that. Instead of winning every other game, the Reds are going on long tears that alternately elate and depress their fans. Instead of winning 9 out of 17 in a regular fashion, the Dodgers have been the worst and the best team in the NL West. Every lurch away from the mean this year was answered by an equally strong tug back. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM
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August 28, 2006
The Vultures are Circling
Permalink Terry Francona supported Manny Ramirez through thick and thin over the last 2 1/2 seasons. Even during the incident with the day off in Tampa, Francona never threw Manny under the bus. That may be changing: No one can truly know what ever burns in another man's soul. But from the outside, at least, the 2006 Red Sox certainly look like they are starting to quit. There is just no way to prove it. "He said he couldn't play. What the (expletive) do you want me to do?" Red Sox manager Terry Francona snapped yesterday morning when asked about Manny Ramirez' absence from the lineup prior to his lifeless team's 6-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners. I'm guessing we're pretty close to the "Manny being Manny" crowd finding that line a little less amusing. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM
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August 15, 2006
Interesting Thoughts
Permalink Lots of fascinating information today at Dodger Thoughts. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM
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August 12, 2006
Boring Loss
Permalink The Oakland Athletics defeated Tampa Bay last night 5-2 behind solid pitching from Dan Haren and a 10 hit, four walk attack from the offense. Rays of Light notes something about the A's that Rob Neyer noticed some time ago: But first, on an angst filled note, does anyone else find the Oakland Athletics to be perhaps the most boring team in baseball? Sure there is the anticipation of awaiting Frank Thomas's next injury or the thrill of watching a man named Marco Scutaro achieve nothing, but other than that they are a team built to thrill a kind of baseball purist I am not. Yet year after year they trudge towards victory in unglamorous fashion, getting it done without flash or drama, making the right calls and executing when it's time; the PBS of baseball. But that's Oakland's problem. Ours is much more fun. They don't take a lot of chances, and taking chances is fun. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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August 11, 2006
The New Royals
Permalink Royals Authority liked what he saw from Kansas City in the Red Sox series: Kidding aside, what I liked about these three wins is there was very little 'flukishness' about them. All three were simply solid wins over a good team in which the Royals made big plays and got big hits when they needed them. That's baseball - it's really not all that hard. Of course, KC only won the three games by a total of four runs; each game easily could have gone the other way. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:12 PM
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August 08, 2006
The As of August
Permalink In 1999 the Oakland Athletics, a small market team that couldn't possibly win, finished second in the AL West with 87 wins. Since then, they've finished first or second in the division every year with at least 88 wins. One reason is their August dominance:
They're off to another good start this August, going 5-1 after a 7-4 win over Texas last night. Their OBA is 20 points higher than their season average on the offensive side, an 20 points lower on the defensive side. With Chavez, Bradley and Swisher finally looking healthy, this team is finally gelling. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM
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August 07, 2006
Center of Attention
Permalink Crawfish Boxes notices the Astros recent success coincides with the return of Willy Taveras to centerfield. After Chris Burke went 0 for 4 vs. the Reds on July 27, and Garner reinstated Willy Taveras as starting centerfielder, the club as a whole has batted .280. Indeed, Taveras hit in every game since returning. Is this just a hot streak, or at age 24, did the demotion finally awake a good hitter in Willy? His career numbers are not impressive, but he's still young enough and it's early enough for him to get better. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM
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August 06, 2006
Small Losses, Giant Disappointment
Permalink The Giants 1-11 record over the last dozen game is impressive for the closeness of the contests. They've not lost a game by more than three runs, meaning they've been in until the end every time. They've been outscored 60-42, so they should be more like 4-8 over that span. The record would have them in the thick of the division race with everyone else. The offense managed just a .301 OBA in this time. I can't say I'm sorry to see this happening. The Giants decided that after the 2003 season they would build a team to help Barry Bonds win the World Series. They signed old players, the the young hitters they brought along were not very good. There was talent, but with age came injuries and they spare parts weren't available to fix what's broken. By catering to a superstar rather than the fans, San Francisco not only won't win a World Series for their star slugger, they've set themselves up to be poor for years to come. The talent on their aging team isn't going to bring much back in trade. This isn't the Marlins or the Athletics, where prime talent can bring back prospects. The Giants will need to either stay on the free agent treadmill or start a long term plan to build through the draft. Neither is going to result in any short term benefits. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:10 PM
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Late Losses
Permalink Fausto Carmona is auditioning for the role of Cleveland closer, and so far it's not going well. Given his performance over the last seven days, it's amazing the director didn't yell, "Next!" after he sang the first note. Cleveland is 2-5 this week, with all five losses coming in the opponents' last at bat and four of them getting hung on Carmona. Five of their last six games were decided by one run, with the Indians losing four of those. The Tribe is 9-18 in one run games, the worst in the majors. So, did they make a mistake selecting Carmona as the closer? Before this streak started, Carmona posted good numbers. His strikeouts weren't stunning, but 7.4 per 9 is good. Couple that with good walk and home run numbers, and he was a perfectly reasonable person to try as the closer. But being moved into the role saw his walks go up, and home runs fly out of the park. And when batters put the ball in play, they usually collected a hit. Opponents were 8 for 12 when they put the ball in play against Fausto. And none of this is even counting the three hit batters, which raised his OBA against to .682 for the week. At age 22, Fausto has time to grow into the role. But if the Indians want to win games now, they need to find another option. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM
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August 04, 2006
I Thought the Boston Media was Negative
Permalink Check out this story in the Toronto Star: The Blue Jays open a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox tonight at the Rogers Centre that carries wild-card implications for both teams. While Toronto certainly made it tough on themselves with their poor road trip, comebacks of this sort happen. And this shows the author doesn't really know what he's talking about: Even with 54 games remaining, the Jays would need an implausible winning streak to catch both New York and Boston, who are vying for the AL East lead and the wild-card position. They don't need to catch both teams, just one of them. They do need to catch Chicago and Minnesota, but they have a chance to move up against the White Sox this weekend and play four against the Twins the weekend after that. With eight remaining against Boston and six against New York, the Jays have the opportunity to move up in the race. Starting today, they'll need to do a better job converting their opportunities. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM
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August 01, 2006
Mr. Mojo Rising
Permalink The Dodgers defeated the Reds tonight 10-4. After a fifteen game streak in which they scored 3 runs or less 13 times, Los Angeles picked up 34 runs in their last four games. Needless to say, they've won four in a row. Wilson Betemit picked up two more hits, giving him five since joining the Dodgers. With a homer tonight, three of them are for extra bases. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM
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Worthless Giants
Permalink Only Baseball Matters speculates on why the Giants didn't make a deadline deal: It was also telling that, in the end, the rest of the league saw the Giants exactly as I do, and overpaid collection of "veterans" that is worth essentially nothing. Schmidt had perhaps the most value, but Sabean was about 5 weeks late if he intended to try and get anything significant for the pitcher. He is encouraged that Sabean is willing to let Schmidt go in order to get a couple of draft picks. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM
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July 31, 2006
Padres July
Permalink With the Padres finished for the month, Ducksnorts posts its monthly look at the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM
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July 27, 2006
The Winning Marlins
Permalink Florida takes two out of three from the Atlanta Braves to pull to 1/2 game of second place in the NL East. Since May 22nd, the Marlins are 36-22, the best record in the National League, two games better than the Mets. The Marlins are winning the old fashioned way, with power. Florida and their opponents have very similar batting averages and OBAs over that time. They have about the same number of doubles and triples. But Florida out homered their foes 73 to 59, leading them to a 269-230 advantage in runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM
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July 24, 2006
Same Story?
Permalink Paul Oberjuerge notices the 2006 Dodgers aren't that different from the 2005 Dodgers: Day by day, Colletti and Little get dumber, and Paul DePodesta and Jim Tracy get smarter. Because despite all the moves by the new general manager and the folksy musings of the new manager, they are only two games ahead of the pace their relentlessly criticized predecessors flogged out of the 2005 club - en route to a 71-91 finish. The Dodgers offense is better in all averages vs. the same point last year. The pitching is nearly identical to last year. Based on that, Colletti did a good job. But injuries and slumps hit the team hard recently, and there's not too much a GM can do about that but try to adjust. Dodgers fans should take some solace in the Diamondbacks season. They went through a one month slump and fought back into the division race. The Dodgers offense is better than they've played lately. I suspect they'll have another surge before the year is out. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM
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July 23, 2006
Restoring Power
Permalink Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres collected three hits so far today, scoring two runs. His double was the 42nd of the year for Padres first basemen. The position was weak for them in 2005, getting 49 extra base hits for the year. Gonzalez and friends already out-homered their 2005 counterparts, 20-19. The trade with Texas is proving to help both clubs. Update: Linebrink blows the lead in the 8th, giving up three runs, but another Texas acquistion, Terrmel Sledge hits his first homer of the year in the top of the 9th to tie the game at five. They're going to the tenth in San Francisco. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM
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Northern Sluggers
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays are showing why they're leading the league in slugging percentage this year. Wells and Johnson combined to pick up 18 of the Toronto 35 total bases in hits game. Wells hit two homer, Johnson two doubles. The team picked up three doubles, a triple and five home runs. For the game, they slugged .946 as they picked up 13 runs and lead New York 13-5 in the top of the ninth. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM
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July 22, 2006
Happy Twins Fans
Permalink Last night they went into Cleveland to open a three-game series -- in a stadium where they were easily swept early in the season -- and they had their worst pitcher taking the mound against the Indians' ace. There was every reason to think the Twins would snap their seven-game winning streak. They're only three games behind the White Sox with a big series in Chicago starting Monday night. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM
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July 18, 2006
Sign of Hope?
Permalink The Royals are losing to the Red Sox tonight 1-0 in the bottom of the seventh. Brandon Duckworth leaves after six innings, allowing the only run of the game. Like Hudson yesterday, Duckworth showed great control. He walked just one batter, and that was intentional. In 12 1/3 innings by KC starters against the Red Sox, that's the only walk they've allowed. If they can keep that up, the starting staff will be just fine. Duckworth picked the wrong night to allow a run, as Jon Lester is working on a one-hitter through seven. He's walked four, so his control is still an issue, but if you're not going to give up hits, you can live with a few free passes. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM
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Eight Men
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers last night 8-3 to regain the .500 level and second place in the NL West. They've now scored 8 runs four times in their last six games, winning six of their last seven. During their slump from June 5th to June 29th, they scored 8 runs or more only once as they went 3-16. Luis Gonzalez is showing some power again. In the last sevent games he's slugging .680 on five doubles and a home run. He was only slugging .407 before that. (The title of this post is a play on 8th Man, a cartoon series of my youth. Does anyone else remember that?) Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 AM
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July 17, 2006
Describing the Cubs
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue pulls out the Thesarus to give the full measure of how he feels about last night's Cubs loss. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:28 PM
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July 11, 2006
Left On Base
Permalink In his look at the Reds at mid-season, Kyle Nagel notices what should be a positive isn't reflected in the runs column: The Reds are second in the NL in runners left on base (673), just four behind Los Angeles. Often, lots of men on base mean lots of men left on base. And lots of men on base usually means lots of men scoring. However, the Reds are seventh in the NL in OBA allowed, certainly not terrible. They've given up a very high slugging percentage, but that should tend to clear the bases. On top of that, opponents are hitting very well with runners in scoring position. However, with two out and runners in scoring position, Reds pitchers tend to walk batters or get an out. I can see where that would lead to lots left on base. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM
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July 09, 2006
Home Run Concentration
Permalink Firebrand of the American League is worried that the Red Sox have too much offense concentrated in two players: As of Independence Day, the Boston Red Sox, as a club, had hit 102 homeruns on the season. That's not a bad number: right now, it puts us 10th in all of baseball and 6th in the American League. This may well be a park effect. Boston is second in the AL in home runs on the road, one behind Detroit. So they're a good home run hitting team. But the proportion remains the same; 35 of the 75 homers on the road came from David and Manny. So Sam is right, an injury to one of those players changes the complexion of the Boston offense. Still, there are a lot of good OBAs on the team, so runs would not disappear entirely. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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July 06, 2006
One More Base Runner
Permalink The Indians lost to the New York Yankees tonight 10-4, allowing four unearned runs in the game. They've allowed 38 unearned runs on the season. That may seem like a lot but the average team in the AL allowed 31. But of course, unearned runs are not the only result of errors. Errors extend the offense leading to more runs down the road. And in Cleveland's case, it's not just the errors that are hurting them. Last year, the Indians defensive efficiency rating was .709, a very good number. This season, it's .686. Over a game, that's one extra base runner. It doesn't seem like much, but as Bill James once pointed out, an extra hit per 9 innings separates a Hall of Famer from an okay pitcher. From what I saw, the Indians defense was just plain sloppy. It's pretty much the same team as last year. Could Coco Crisp make that much difference? Given that most of the problems were on the infield tonight, I don't think so. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM
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Remaking the Mariners
Permalink U.S.S. Mariner lists the changes he would make to the Seattle American League franchise and invites you to do the same. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:00 PM
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July 03, 2006
Reviewing the Padres
Permalink Ducksnorts offers their monthly evaluation of the Padres. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM
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Lack of Stars
Permalink Gary Peterson notes the lack of all-stars from the first place Athletics. It's basically due to a lack of offense: In the past 12 games, the 000 000 000akland offense has been shut out three times, and has been held to two or fewer runs six times. It's an authentic enough slump that, given a chance to write it off to the vagaries of interleague play (you know, unfamiliar pitching, pitchers swinging bats, dogs and cats living together), Macha declined. Yes, they suffered a number of injuries. But given their drafting and development stratagies over the years, you'd think the A's would have some decent OBA players to jump in and take over for a couple of weeks. And to point out the elephant in the room, Bobby Crosby stinks this year. He was a big reason they won last season. Oakland was a completely different team with and without Crosby in 2005. He's hitting like Neifi Perez, yet he's been batting in the middle of the order all year. Maybe it's time to move him down to 8th or 9th to see if he gets his stroke back. Right now, Crosby is a blockage in the heart of the order. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM
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July 02, 2006
Ten Spots
Permalink On May 28th, the Atlanta Braves beat the Chicago Cubs 13-12. It was the seventh time they scored 10 runs or more on the season, tied with the New York Yankees for most in the majors. They were 27-23 after that win. Today was the first time Atlanta scored 10 runs since then. Their 10-3 victory over the Orioles puts their record since 5/28 at 8-24. Milwaukee and San Diego are the only other teams not to score 10 runs in a game in that time frame. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:10 PM
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June 30, 2006
Getting to .500
Permalink Rocco Baldelli is two for four with a homer and three RBI so far tonight as the Devil Rays are off to a 7-0 lead over the Nationals. Baldelli is off to a great start, now sporting a .410 OBA and a .653 slugging percentage. Along with Carl Crawford coming into his own (two home runs tonight) the Devil Rays are finally seeing their young dynamic duo play up to their potential. Since Baldelli returned, the Devil Rays are 10-10. A .500 season for the Devil Rays would be a huge leap forward. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM
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Bad Month
Permalink The Arizona Diamondbacks will end June with their 2nd or 4th worst month of their existence. They're currently 7-20 in June after a last at bat, 3-2 win by the Mariners last night. Jorge Julio could not make an outstanding performance by Enrique Gonzalez stand up. The DBacks worst month was July of 2004 when they went 5-23. Arizona's been outscored in the month 180-106, an average of 2.7 runs per game! Not surprisingly, they've lost eight games by five runs or more, and allowed ten runs or more seven times. On the other side, they've been held to 3 runs or less 15 times, winning just one of those contests. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM
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June 29, 2006
Tiger Town
Permalink Keith Langlois writes an optimistic article on the Detroit Tigers and the city of Detroit: On a sparkling summer day in a city that's known too few for too long, amid a baseball season a generation has yet to know, signs of renaissance were everywhere. And it's good to see Tiger fans supporting this team: "This was a big game for us," Verlander said of the Tigers' last home game until July 13, when play resumes after the All-Star break. "The city had a big turnout this whole homestand. What better way to show them what we can do than to sweep the series?" Indeed. This team may still go the way of the 2005 Nationals. Unlike the 1984 Tigers, there is a World Championship team breathing now their necks, and another playing just as well waiting for a fall. But the pitching looks good, the hitters look good so it's time to be optimistic!
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 AM
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June 27, 2006
Fifty Ways to Lose a Dozen
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their 12th game in a row tonight, a 4-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. The done it every way imaginable. They lost blowouts. They given up ten runs or more three times. They've scored over five runs in a game and lost. They've been shutout. They've lost by two runs or less six times. It doesn't matter. The Pirates just find a way to lose. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM
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June 25, 2006
Cleaning House
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue Says it's time to back the truck up to Wrigley: WGN-TV, as you know, always runs a half-hour season preview special before the season starts. Back in the 1970's, it wasn't as whistles-and-bells as it is now; they simply did a review of the previous season, and a look ahead to new players acquired. Al goes on to list who the Cubs should keep and who they should unload if they get the chance. Needless to say, there are a lot of names on the unload list. He also offers this fun stat: It's pretty bizarre, too, that the Cubs keep losing games on WGN-TV. They lose on other TV channels too, but they are now 5-27 on WGN, 23-19 on all other outlets. That is just freaky. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM
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Royal Walks
Permalink The Royals batters and pitchers combined to do about everything right today as they shutdown the Milwaukee Brewers 6-0. One difference in the game was the number of walks; they Royals drew seven and issued just two. The Beane Count is a stat that measures the home run and walk tendencies of team offenses and pitching. The Royals have the worst Beane Count in the AL, as they rank 13th in walks drawn and 12th in walks allowed. A few more games like this will not only help their Beane Count ranking, but help them to win some more games as well. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:19 PM
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June 23, 2006
Little Fixes
Permalink Scott Priestle looks at how the Indians are going to go about fixing the team. They're going to keep the core in place and try to find the right supporting players. The key to keeping pace in the increasingly talented American League Central is assembling the right supporting cast, and the Indians' spotty play through 71 games suggests they have the wrong mix. The bullpen has been shaky, the starting rotation inconsistent and the defense uninspiring. One thing the Indians might want to address is why they've been so unlucky the last two years. In 2005, they finished four game under their expected won-lost record. Right now, they're five games below where they belong. The Indians are 29-46 in one run games in 2005 and 2006, the third worst record in the majors. Only Kansas City and Pittsburgh have worse winning percentages, and only the Pirates lost more games. Could it be dumb luck? Sure. But it will be worth re-evaluating the strategies used in those close contests. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM
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June 21, 2006
Too Pessimistic?
Permalink For the second time in recent days, I see this at FishStripes: We aren't going to win the World Series this year. However, looking at the standings, the Marlins are just six games out of the wild card. Their penultimate series of the season is against the Reds, sandwiched between two series with the Phillies. The odds are they won't win the World Series, but it would be mighty impressive if they made the playoffs. If nothing else, it shows you can replace a number of veterans with a number of young, cheap players and do pretty well. While everyone's been looking at the Marlins as sellers at the trading deadline, might an extended winning streak make them buyers? Who has more prospects to trade than the Marlins? They have offensive weaknesses in center and right field. Why not trade for an experienced, good outfielder? Or a third baseman so you can send Cabrera back to right? Would the Cubs move Aramis Ramirez to rebuild? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM
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June 16, 2006
Homebodys
Permalink Nick and Nick try to figure out why the Twins are so good at home and so poor on the road. We think of parks as effecting players the same way. If a park increases scoring, it does so for both teams. If it hurts offense, it does so for both teams. But the Twins go on the road, and their offense goes way down. Meanwhile, their pitchers allow many more runs. In 31 home games, they are outscoring the opposition 169-134. But in 34 away games, they're being outscored 168-135. With all the recent new construction in baseball, the Metrodome became an unusual park. Is it so unusual that the opposition can't adjust to it, while the Twins can't adjust away from it? Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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More Offense
Permalink The Chicago White Sox scored eight runs last night as they defeated the Rangers 8-2. Jim Thome homered late in the game, his 22nd of the year, but only his second in his last 13 games. Thome was brought in to transform the offense, and indeed that's happened. Compare the White Sox through 66 games in 2005 and 2006:
In 2005 they ranked 5th in runs per game; in 2006 they've moved up to fourth. Thome's brought fewer outs and more power to the middle of the lineup, producing more offense from the DH slot and at the same time giving everyone else more chances to produce as well. Another difference is that the White Sox played a many fewer one-run games this season. Through 66 contests in 2005, the pale hose were 19-8 in one run games. This season they're just 11-8. More runs means less opportunities to play close games. That's a good thing. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 AM
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June 13, 2006
The Slump of Slumps
Permalink I didn't realize the Diamondbacks slump was this bad: Arizona hasn't owned a lead since the seventh inning of its game last Monday against Philadelphia. The average score in their last seven games is 7-2 opponents. They played three games in which they allowed 10 runs or more, and four games in which they scored 2 runs or less. Great team tend to win big. Poor teams tend to lose big. Right now, Arizona looks like a very poor team. The article states the obvious, that much of this is distraction over the Grimsley case. It might almost be a relief to release the names in affidavit, so players could stop worrying about it. Of course, there's the possibility that the team was playing over its head for a while and is just coming back to earth. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM
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June 12, 2006
Bottom of the Rotation
Permalink Al at Al's Ramblings notices that the fill in starters for the Brewers aren't doing a very good job. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:15 PM
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Better Pitching
Permalink Juan Rodriguez writes of the successful west coast swing by the Florida Marlins. He notes the turnaround by the starting staff: Since losing a season-high seven in a row, the Marlins have won 12 of 18. Look no further than the starting rotation to pinpoint the turnaround. Part of that was moving Johnson and Nolasco into the rotation, replacing Vargas and Mitre (Mitre due to an injury). Nolasco's posted a 2.83 ERA as a starter, Johnson a 1.65. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM
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June 11, 2006
The Walking Men
Permalink The Mets drew 10 walks this afternoon as they routed the Diamondbacks 15-2. It's the second time this season New York drew 10 or more walks in a game (they drew 13 on 5/5). In the first five years of this decade, the Mets two 10 walk games. Despite this, they came into today 12th in the NL in free passes. This continues to surprise me, since their manager, Willie Randolph, was terrific at drawing walks and getting on base. I'm surprised he doesn't emphasize this more, especially when they get results like this. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM
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The Walking Men
Permalink The Mets drew 10 walks this afternoon as they routed the Diamondbacks 15-2. It's the second time this season New York drew 10 or more walks in a game (they drew 13 on 5/5). In the first five years of this decade, the Mets two 10 walk games. Despite this, they came into today 12th in the NL in free passes. This continues to surprise me, since their manager, Willie Randolph, was terrific at drawing walks and getting on base. I'm surprised he doesn't emphasize this more, especially when they get results like this. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM
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June 09, 2006
Dirty Dozen
Permalink The Astros defeated the Braves 7-2 this evening. Atlanta's cold streak continues as they are now 2-10 over their last 12 games. They've been outscored 78 to 49, so while the offense hasn't been great, the pitching's been really bad, allowing 6 1/2 runs per game. It's been power, mostly as opponents collected 49 extra-base hits to the Braves 34. The loss puts them just 1/2 game ahead of the Nationals. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM
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Pujols and the Pitchers
Permalink It's interesting to note that since Albert Pujols went down with an injury, the Cardinals have scored 20 runs in four games but allowed 28. Down six three tonight, the pitching for the Red Birds continues to be the main problem for St. Louis. Update: The Cardinals come back to win this game 10-6. Again, the offense hasn't been bad. The pitching hasn't been stellar. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM
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June 08, 2006
Up and Down Indians
Permalink After blowing out the Athletics last night, the Indians are getting shut out by Esteban Loaiza this afternoon. Over the last two weeks, the Indians suffered these huge run swings from both the offense and the defense on a near daily basis:
It's tough to get a good read on the Indians this year. Some days they look like the 1998 Yankees, others like the 2006 Royals. They've outscored their opponents 81-68 over the 13 games. It seems that if they played closer to the averages (1 run better than their oppnents per game) they'd have a much better record. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:48 PM
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June 05, 2006
The Good and the Bad
Permalink U.S.S. Mariner looks at the good and the bad news for the Mariners so far. This is my favorite: Good News! That sums up the team quite nicely. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM
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The Friars of May
Permalink Ducksnorts looks at why the Padres finished May with the best record in the month. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 AM
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Brewers Woes
Permalink The phrase of the day in Milwaukee is, "Don't Panic." "Nobody's hitting with any regularity," Yost said. "Billy (Hall) is hitting below .220 (since he became the regular shortstop because of J.J. Hardy's ankle injury). Rickie (Weeks) has cooled off. Prince has cooled off." Yost appears to be treating this as a run of bad luck. However, it may be the league adjusting to a young team, and that young team not adapting to those adjustments. While Yost is right not to panic, it is his job to figure out why things aren't working now that were working earlier. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM
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The Better Team?
Permalink Michael Sliverman won't win many fans with this column: So as the Red Sox enter the Bronx beast’s belly tonight for the start of a four-game series, here’s one fun morsel to chew on: The Yankees are better. Sliverman goes on to show that in every category except defense, the Yankees are better than the Red Sox. His most telling argument: But when you look at how the Yankees have played against the better teams in the AL, their record speaks for itself. Against Toronto, AL Central-leading Detroit and AL West-leading Texas, the Yankees are a combined 11-5. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are 8-10 against those same three opponents. The Yankees have played less AL East team than the Red Sox -- who are 15-4 against Tampa Bay and Baltimore -- meaning they have more gimme games against those cellar dwellers remaining. I still think the two teams are very close. When Boston and New York started their Fenway series two weeks ago I remember a sports radio host thought due to the Yankees injuries that New York would be five games out by the end of the week. That didn't happen. The replacements are doing a good job. Torre's doing a very good job of moving people in and out of the lineup. It turns out the minor league system had enough depth to fill in the holes, and the healthy stars are still good enough to put up some runs. This may turn out to be the most interesting Yankees team in a long time. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM
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June 04, 2006
Comeback Time?
Permalink It's doesn't take much to get Cubs fans on the bandwagon: When the Cubs complete the Comeback of the Century and win the 2006 National League Central title - why say "if'' when it's practically assured, right? - Saturday will be the day Chicago baseball poets recall with joyous verse. With the injury to Pujols, the Cardinals face the one of the same problems the Cubs had; replacing the best hitter in the lineup at first base. It will be interesting to see how Jocketty handles this problem compared to Hendry. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM
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May 31, 2006
Reds Demise
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds fall from grace started on May 12th. In that time they've gone 5-12. After such a good start, the regression might not surprise you, but the reason should. The pitching and defense during this stretch gave up 91 runs, 5.3 per game. But the Reds offense is capable of covering that, at least to stay at a .500 level. It's the offense that's really collasped, scoring just 69 runs, 4.1 per game. And that's actually generous. The Reds scored 4 runs or less in eleven of these 17 games and lost every one of those contests, including four shutouts. You can place most of the blame on Kearns, Griffey and Encarnacion. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM
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May 29, 2006
Moneyball Dodgers
Permalink The Dodgers came into the day leading the NL in runs per game. They've done nothing to lose that spot today as their up 8-1 on Atlanta in the fifth. They've knocked out 10 hits and drawn six walks. Not suprisingly, they're leading the NL in on-base average. They've now draw 219 walks on the year in 1734 at bats. Drew, Furcal, Kent and Cruz are all on a pace to draw over 80 walks on the season. Even Nomar is walking much more than his career average. You might think DePodesta put this team together! Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM
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May 27, 2006
Sloppy Ball
Permalink The Indians pitching and defensive flaws were evident last night: Most tellingly, the Indians could not — or at least did not — stop a randomly rolling ball in the seventh inning. Afterward, manager Eric Wedge looked a little like the afternoon storm clouds, with just a bit more restraint. It's looking like the defense is the problem for Cleveland. The Hardball Times graph of defense vs. pitching shows that the Indians pitchers are doing a very good job. The difference between this year and last year is that the dot was in the upper right quadrant, the best place to be. If the Indians start fielding the ball as they did last year, the pitchers should see a good drop in their runs allowed. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM
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May 24, 2006
Swept by the Marlins
Permalink The Cubs lost to the Marlins today by a score of 9-3. They get swept in a three game series by a combined score of 23-8. Four of the Marlins 14 wins this season came against the Cubs. The Marlins score 4.5 runs per game, but their average margin of victory in this series was bigger than that. Something has to give with the Cubs soon. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM
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Balanced Lineup
Permalink I've noted before how the Arizona lineup is well balanced. Almost everyone has above average OBA and slugging percentages, with no on player being real outstanding. This article notes another piece of evidence toward that theory: Estrada, who moved up a spot in the order and hit sixth for just the second time this year, took over the team lead with 31 RBIs. Jackson moved into a tie with Chad Tracy for second with 29. The team doesn't have a superstar, but they don't have any bad players, either. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM
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May 20, 2006
Yankees in Bad Shape
Permalink Just how much are the injuries hurting the Yankees? Miguel Cairo is batting sixth today. Kelly Stinnett is up with two men on base, and Torre can't pinch hit because Posada is hurt. Pedro is getting tired, and the Yankees don't have the bats at the bottom of the order to take advantage of it as Stinnett strikes out looking. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM
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May 19, 2006
Opposite Jays
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays spent a lot of money on pitching in the off season, but it's their offense that's been carrying them so far. Toronto scored an 8-4 victory over the Angels last night, putting their runs per game at 5.78, second in the majors. They're also under-performing their runs created estimate, so it looks like that number underestimates their offense. Meanwhile, their pitching staff ranks ninth in the AL with a 4.77 ERA. Take a look at the hitters so far. Vernon Wells finally figured out how to get on base, as has Shea Hillenbrand. Overbay added OBA to the team, and Glaus power. Those two moves look very good right now. Alex Rios, at age 25, hit his prime and found his power. Will this last? Overbay and Glaus are doing what's expected. Rios is at an age where the jump is likely to happen, but I thought that was true for Adrian Beltre. Wells and Hillenbrand are most likely to revert to something less than they're doing now. They have a solid track record, and this kind of OBA is not part of it. Still, despite the pitching not being as good as the money spent, the Jays find themselves just one game out of first place. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM
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May 18, 2006
Francoeurly Speaking
Permalink The Atlanta Braves rise coincides with the explosion of Jeff Francoeur's offense. On 4/30, Jeff went four for five and the Braves won. In the 18 games he's played starting on that date, Francoeur is 30 for 83 with 7 homers, 12 extra-base hits and 27 RBI. That helped the Braves to average 6.33 runs per game over that time period, the best in the NL. Their 9-1 victory over the Marlins today gives the team a 12-6 record and moves them 3 1/2 games out of first place. Of course, the biggest difference is that Francoeur drew 1 walk in this stretch, his only one of the year. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 PM
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May 17, 2006
Proving the Pundits Right
Permalink Rays Index notices that the Devil Rays win over the White Sox last night demonstrated everything people thought about this team going into the season. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:05 PM
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All or Nothing
Permalink The Angels picked up eight runs last night as they sent the Blue Jays to an 8-3 loss. In the month of May, the Angels have four games in which they've scored 7 or more runs, and ten games where they've scored four or less (8 of those 3 or less). There seems to be no middle ground for the Angels as they've been outscored 71 to 52 so far this month. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 AM
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May 15, 2006
The Red Sox Difference
Permalink The Baltimore Orioles are well on their way to their seventh defeat in seven games by the Boston Red Sox. If you remove the games against Boston, the Orioles would be 18-14 with a 5.22 ERA. They outscored other opponents 181-177, but the Red Sox outscored them 53-20, including the 8-1 lead tonight. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM
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Hot Daddies
Permalink Ducksnorts takes an in-depth look at the Padres hot streak. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM
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A Different Team
Permalink Eric Gilmore expects the Giants to be a totally different team next year: Bonds is one of nine Giants veterans in the final year of their contracts, along with Jason Schmidt, Moises Alou, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz, Steve Kline, Todd Greene, Jose Vizcaino and Jamey Wright. The Giants will save a lot of money next year, but who do they use instead? Most free agents are not young players; you can't go out and buy a bunch of 26 year olds. If the Giants let that much talent go, some of the replacements need to come from within, or the team will be no better off than this year. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM
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May 14, 2006
Out of Sync
Permalink The Cleveland Indians lost their sixth in a row today, falling to the Detroit Tigers 3-2. The Indians scored 18 runs against the Royals in three games and got swept. They allowed 11 runs to the Tigers in this series and got swept. They need a series where the offense and pitching are good together. This reminds me of Cleveland in the late 1980's and early 1990's. They'd alternate years of having good pitching and good hitting. One year, the offense would be great, but the pitching would pull them down. The next year, the pitching would be among the leaders, but the offense was so bad they didn't win. This season seems to be a microcosm of that era. Meanwhile, the Tigers move into a tie for first place in the AL Central pending the outcome of tonight's White Sox/Twins game. Mike Maroth lowers his ERA to 2.18, which should be good for second place in the AL. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:07 PM
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May 13, 2006
Counting Out the Yankees?
Permalink Ken Macha and Joe Torre commiserated about all the injuries on their teams last night, and then the Yankees went out and overcame theirs with a 2-0 win. Wang pitched 8 innings without striking out a batter, but didn't allow a run as the Athletics hit into five double plays. I was quite surprised to hear people writing off the Yankees in 2006 after the Matsui injury. Even with Gary and Hideki out, the Yankees infield is capable of generating a lot of offense. Couple that with the Yankees rank as second in the league in ERA, and you still have a competitive team. They aren't going away; their just not going to run away with anything this year. I also think Cashman is doing the right thing by not making a panic move: But Cashman said his cellphone had not been ringing much in the 24 hours since Matsui broke his left wrist in Thursday night's 5-3 loss to Boston. Matsui underwent surgery and was officially placed on the 15-day DL on Friday, one day after he was injured trying to catch a Mark Loretta drive in the top of the first inning of the series finale with the Boston Red Sox. When I heard Cashman speak in the off-season, he noted their lack of a farm system limited the moves they could make. He was impressed with the way the Red Sox had rebuilt their minors and wanted to do the same. If you're going to go that route, you can't start trading players in the middle of the season just because a star is injured. There's no reason the Yankees can't win with the offense they currently employ; that's why it's good to be so deep. And that's why there's no reason to panic. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM
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May 11, 2006
Blue Jay Power
Permalink Troy Glaus added a solo shot to his earlier three-run homer, and the Blue Jays are up 8-2 on the Athletics in the seventh inning. Toronto hit three doubles and three homers in the game. They came into the day with their team slugging percentage at .494; it's at .769 for the day so far. That would bring them over .500 for the season, but we'll see how the last two innings go. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM
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May 09, 2006
Pitching With a Lead
Permalink One of the strengths of the Diamondbacks this season is how they pitch with a lead and bat when trailing:
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:13 PM
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Yankaholix
Permalink I didn't know Cary Grant was a Yankees fan. (Then again, it might be Rock Hudson.) Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM
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May 08, 2006
Five Padres
Permalink Geoff Young at Ducksnorts evaluates five key players on the San Diego Padres. He's worried about Peavy and Williams, but likes what he sees in Bowen, Barfield and Greene. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM
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Comeback Confidence
Permalink The Diamondbacks are developing confidence with all the comeback wins, and even comebacks in losses: "I've played on a lot of winning teams and this has just got that feel." The NL West standings are pretty much the opposite of what was expected coming into the season. I like the Arizona team long term, but sometimes that long term planning pays off short term as well. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 AM
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May 07, 2006
Royals Future
Permalink The Daily Lancer looks at what the new GM will find when Allard Baird is finally fired. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:56 PM
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The Horror!
Permalink Bleed Cubbie Blue presents a picture of a typical Cubs fans and more information on the pitiful offense of the northsiders. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 AM
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May 05, 2006
Texas On Top
Permalink The Texas Rangers lead the AL West by 1 1/2 games. Last night's 8-2 win over the Orioles is what the Rangers would like to see more of this year. Good pitching to go with a good offense. Kevin Millwood gave the bullpen a night off, throwing 99 pitches to go the distance vs. Baltimore. He's doing exactly what the Rangers hired him to do; replace Kenny Rogers as the ace. As noted at the beginning of the year, an ERA of 4.00 from Millwood would be fine, but he's 1/2 a run better than that at the start of May. The Rangers starting staff last lost a game on April 15th. Since then, they've posted a 3.07 ERA while going 7-0. The revamped rotation was a major concern going into this season, and so far it's worked well. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM
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May 04, 2006
Leadoff Woes
Permalink The Atlanta Braves can't seem to generate any action from the leadoff spot. Marcus Giles went 0 for 5 tonight, lowering the combined OBA of the #1 hitters to .276. Giles should be making a difference in the slot, but he has a .301 OBA as a leadoff hitter this year. I'd bet that's going to get better, but right now it's a headache for the Braves. They lose to the Phillies tonight 6-3. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM
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Someone Should Write Diamondball
Permalink The Diamondbacks handed Greg Maddux his first loss last night, knocking out ten hits in five innings against the future Hall of Famer. Arizona is 8-3 over their last eleven games and sits in second place in the NL West, just one game behind the Rockies. Take a look at the final boxscore from last night and notice the OBP and Slug columns for the DBacks hitters. The first seven hitters all have on-base percentages above the league average of .333. They also have slugging percentage above the NL average of .417. Notice also that none of these players has an outstanding OBP or slugging percentage. There's no MVP numbers in that lineup. But when everyone is above average, your offense is going to be above average. It's a perfect offense for a team that doesn't want to spend a lot of money. Everyone does something well, but not so well that the individuals can demand huge salaries. If you put enough of those players together, you have a very good, low-cost offense. A very nice job by Mr Byrnes in so far. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM
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May 03, 2006
Better Start
Permalink Andrew Koch notes the Athletics are off to a better start than last year. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:57 AM
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April 30, 2006
San Diego Slide
Permalink The San Diego Padres keep sliding farther behind the NL West. They're well on their way to their sixth straight defeat, as they're down 5-0 in the sixth inning to Derek Lowe and the Dodgers. The Padres have been outscored 26-5 during the streak, including this afternoon. They've managed just one hit and two walks vs. Lowe so far. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM
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Twins Character
Permalink Ron Gardenhire is looking for something positive to say about the Minnesota Twins: "I would worry if we didn't have character," Gardenhire said. "They're not going to quit, because if they do, they won't be here. We don't do that around here. I believe in them. There's going to be a lot of people not believing in you, and if you can get through stuff like this, it can make you stronger." Character is nice, but good pitching and three-run homers win ball games. Ron is definitely channeling Sparky Anderson here, forcing me to pull out Bill James' 1983 comment on Enos Cabell: I mean, I would never say that it was not important to have a team with a good attitude, but Christ, Sparky, there are millions of people in this country who have good attitudes, but only about 200 or so who can play a major league brand of baseball, so which are you going to take? Good pitching and three-run homers win ball games. Right now, the Twins have the highest ERA in the majors, and 14 of their 20 homers came with the bases empty. And the 20 home runs are third lowest in the AL. The optimistic view is the Twins are a much better team that's in a slump. The view that's closer to reality is that there's been a decline in talent. If it's a slump, it's Gardenhire's job to find a way out of it. If it's talent, then Ryan needs to step in. But noting that players are working hard isn't the answer. The work needs to be directed toward fixing weaknesses, or this team will continue losing.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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April 27, 2006
The Rockies Plan
Permalink Garret Atkins homered in the eighth inning this afternoon to give Colorado a 5-3 lead over the Phillies. Atkins might be the poster child for how the Rockies are trying to build a winner. He's 26 years old. He played a bit in the majors in 2003 and 2004, then at 25 was a full-time player in 2005. He was okay, but not great. But he's hitting the majors when he's hitting his peak. And we're seeing that rapid improvement this year. With the homer, his batting average sits at .358, his OBA at .429 and his slugging percentage at .556. The Rockies are full of players like this, young but in their prime of their careers. Maturing at once, they're fighting for the division lead in the NL West. Update: The Rockies win 6-3. Their pitchers allow just two earned runs and lower their road ERA to 4.14, which would put them 8th in the majors. That's impressive, given that the Rockies usually have a very bad road ERA in addition to their expected high ERA at home. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM
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I Can Just Hear Nancy Singing
Permalink An Ode to the Devil Rays pitching staff. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 PM
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April 26, 2006
Erasing Runners
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates put eleven men on base via a hit or walk today, but erased four of them with double plays. They've now hit into 28 double plays on the season, the most in the majors. Look at it this way; without the DPs today, the Pirates OBA was 11/32 or .344. With the double plays, their effective OBA was 7/32, or .219. Which team would you rather face? The Cardinals eeked out a win, 4-3. The DP's could easily have made the difference in the game for the Pirates. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM
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April 24, 2006
Reds Menace
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds scored three runs in the first inning against the Nationals. The Reds are leading the majors in runs per game coming into this evening, averaging 6.37 per game. That would work out to 1032 for the season. With two doubles in the first inning, they now have 51 in 20 games to lead the majors in that category as well. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 PM
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Winning Big
Permalink While close wins may keep us on the edge of our seats, the truly great teams win games big. One example is the 1998 New York Yankees, a team which outscored their opponents by 309 runs over the season. That meant they scored 1.91 more runs per game than the teams they faced. The White Sox won the close ones last year, but in 2006 they are winning big. Through 18 games, Chicago is up 34 runs on their opponents, or 1.89 runs per game. They're winning big, and possess the best record in the AL. So while the Sox are just 1-2 in one-run games, they're 4-1 in games decided by five runs or more. Note, however, that in a small sample that doesn't always work. The Yankeess are up 35 runs in 17 games, yet are only 9-8. My guess is that record will turn around. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM
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Twin Killings
Permalink The Twins fell six games behind the White Sox yesterday and are as close to the Royals (2 1/2 games) as they are to the Indians. And while the offense is awful on the road, the pitching staff is horrible everywhere: The Twins have 16 more games to go against a team that flexed its muscle in 7-1 and 9-2 victories against Johan Santana and Brad Radke before rubbing it in against a struggling Carlos Silva on Sunday. They pounded 13 hits in 5 2/3 innings against him, including back-to-back home runs. Twice. Pitching is supposed to be the strong suit of this team. While the staff is still not walking anybody, they're being hit hard. The opposition is hitting .320 against Minnesota with a .516 slugging percentage. Those are number that would win an individual batter a huge multi-year, multi-million dollar contract. When your whole staff is being hit like that, it's time to figure out what's wrong. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 AM
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Sun Flower Patch
Permalink The Athletics are losing again, and someone is frustrated: The sunflower seeds hit the fan after the A's 4-3 loss Sunday to the Los Angeles Angels of 90210. The culprit isn't known, but that might not matter: Macha can be a man of few words after a game, borderline terse, even. But, like Chavez, he seems the restrained type. Who, then, could have tossed the seeds on Sunday? Since the act was new to us, it stands to reason it might be a player experiencing an A's-type April for the first time. Actually, it sounds like Billy Beane sneaked into the dugout and did some tossing, rather than taking his frustrations out in private. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 AM
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April 23, 2006
Pedro Better, Reyes Worse
Permalink Pedro Martinez pitched a near classic Martinez game last night, striking out eleven Padres over seven innings while walking just two. His only mistake was a solo home run to his former battery mate, Mike Piazza. While his walk rate remains a little high, his strikeout rate and hits per 9 show no degradation due to his toe. Looks like the shoe is working. Jose Reyes, on the other hand, is off his early season hot streak and appears to be doing no better as a leadoff hitter than in 2005. After an 0-5 last night, Reyes' OBA sits at .272. With over 1300 accumulated plate appearances and a .301 career OBA, it's becoming clear Reyes is not a good hitter. His seasonal age is 23 this season; that's getting to the point where the "young" excuse won't fly anymore. The only think Reyes brings to the table right now is his ability to steal, and he can't do that if he's not on base. Is it too early to give up on Jose? Probably. But it's not too early to start thinking about another option for next year. At this point, Jose does not look like a long term solution. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM
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Motown Meanies
Permalink Jim Leyland laid the Tigers out in lavender after a blowout loss to the Cleveland Indians. His rant appeared to get through to the starting pitchers, as the group carried the load since. In their five starts since the haranguing, they've pitched 34 1/3 innings with a 2.36 ERA. While they haven't struck out many, they've limited the opposition to just 19 hits. Nate Robertson, who pitched that blowout in Cleveland, gave the Tigers seven scoreless innings last night. He allowed two walks and two hits, both singles. The Tigers scored 4 runs or less in four of these games, so the starters need to be that good to go 3-1 in the five games. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM
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April 21, 2006
Predicting the Royals
Permalink Tim Marchman at the New York Sun is fascinated by the poor play of the Royals, and he's holding a contest to predict the team's record at the end of May: To concentrate the minds of baseball fandom, I offer incentives. Drop me an e-mail predicting what the Royals' record will be at the end of May, when they will have played 53 games. As a tiebreaker, predict the number of Royals hitters who will have at least 100 at-bats with an on-base average of at least .300. The winner will receive a spiffy Kansas City Royals hat, an autographed copy of "The Big Book of Baseball Blunders," the new title from redoubtable ESPN.com columnist and long-suffering Royals fan Rob Neyer, and the honor that comes with having shown that it's impossible to overestimate how bad this team is. My guess is the Royals intrinsic winning percentage is around .400. Given their poor start, an 18-35 record seems appropriate for the first 53 games played. Two wins in twelve games is within the 95% confidence interval for a .400 team. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM
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Watch Out for the Rangers
Permalink While it's not that surprising the Texas Rangers trail their opposition in runs, it is surprising why. The Rangers ERA stands at 4.73 after their 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners last night. They've only allowed four unearned runs to bring their defensive total to 78. That's good for a Texas team. But the offense only scored 76 runs, 4.75 per game. In a season where offense is up, Texas is looking at a 0.6 drop in runs per game! My guess is the offense won't stay this low. If the hitters come around and the pitching can maintain this level, the Rangers will be in the playoff hunt. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM
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April 20, 2006
The Wisdom of the Crowds
Permalink Or, in this case, lack of crowds. In an article about poor attendance at Diamondback games, a fan sums up the team very well: Some fans at Wednesday night's game said they thought the drop-off could be attributed to wins and losses. They need more players in their prime. The young ones will get there soon, and the old ones will leave at the same time. That should leave the Diamondbacks in pretty good shape. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 AM
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April 18, 2006
Twins Surge
Permalink It seems the Twins surge in offense corresponds to Tony Oliva coaching batting practice. Tony was a good hitter in a deadball era, so he's a good choice to teach the youngsters. As you can see from the Twins home/away split, the power was always there, Minnesota is just adding a lot more singles. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 AM
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Giving Credit
Permalink Nick and Nick take a moment to recognize moves that worked so far by Ryan and Gardenhire. The first comment is worth reading, too. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 AM
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April 17, 2006
Baker Not Worried
Permalink Dusty Baker is taking the Cubs start is stride, according to the Onion: "I know things look good right now, and you hate to see Cubs fans get encouraged early, but I'm certain that things will straighten themselves out and we'll be in third place by early May," Baker said at a press conference Wednesday. "With the talent and drive we lack, it's foolish to think that this team can continue playing at this rate all year." After all, if they win too many games, Baker might lose his job! :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM
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April 15, 2006
Walk This Way
Permalink The Tampa Bay Devil Rays drew eight walks tonight from Kansas City pitchers. So unless the Yankees draw six walks in the top of the ninth, the Devil Rays will go into Sunday leading the American League in walks with 55. While the Devil Rays don't finish last in walks every year, they're usually at the bottom of the pack about 200 walks behind the leading team. It's a good sign for the Tampa offense if they're becoming more selective at the plate. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM
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They're Known for Their Solos
Permalink The Oakland Athletics hit four home runs so far this afternoon to lead the Texas Rangers 5-4. Three of the four are solo shots (they hit three in a row leading off the sixth). That gives them seventeen homers on the year, 14 of them solo shots. The other three all came with just a man on first! The A's have yet to hit a three-run homer or grand slam this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:48 PM
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Mets Start
Permalink The New York Mets tied their best nine-game start with a 4-3 victory over Milwaukee. They're keeping it interesting, too, as they alternate between blowouts and close wins. They're getting offense from an unexpected source, also. Mets pitchers are 8 for 19 at the plate with two doubles and a walk for a .421 batting average and a .526 slugging percentage. They're just blowing away the pinch hitters, who are batting .182. Glavine's leading the way with a 3 for 4, adding a 1 for 2 last night. Let them swing! Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM
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April 14, 2006
Good Signs for the Rockies
Permalink The Colorado Rockies won again last night, defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-3. With the Giants split, that puts the Rockies in sole possession of first place in the NL West. The biggest sign of encouragement for Rockies fans is that the team is playing well away from Coors. The usual pattern for Colorado looks like this:
This year, however, looks like this:
The bad offense at home probably comes around. The question is can they maintain good offense and pitching away from Coors? Correction: Yes, the last row was supposed to be pitching. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM
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April 12, 2006
Pirate Power
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates smacked four home runs tonight off the Los Angeles Dodgers to power their way to a 9-5 victory. Seven of the Pirates runs scored on the homers. The four dingers bring the Pirates total to 17, tied with Cincinnati for the National League team lead. The Wilsons hit three tonight, and have combined for seven on the season. The Pirates only hit 11 home runs in April of 2005, and overall were 22nd in the majors in homers during the season. A big increase in power would be a boon for the Pirate offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 PM
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Filling the Bases
Permalink The Yankees put 23 men on base today via a hit or walk. Most of those were singles. When there's that many base runners, a few are bound to score. New York raises their team OBA to .380. That's a great year for a player. Chacon gave up five runs in six innings and was never in danger of a loss after the first inning. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM
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The Marlins are So Young...
Permalink Craig Handel offers a number of punchlines. You're invited to leave yours in the comments. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM
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April 10, 2006
Clutch Yankees
Permalink Was Watching applies batting eye from Baseball Between the Numbers to look at the Yankees of the Torre era. No surprise at who does well or poorly, but it is interesting that players with good batting eyes tend to be clutch players. Most people think of the Joe Carter types, hitters willing to put the ball in play with men on base, as the clutch performers. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM
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Giants Winning
Permalink Eric Gilmore sees the Giants doing well without Bonds hitting as a sign of a deeper team. Bonds may not be hitting well, but he's certainly getting on base just fine. Eric hits that point tangentially: Two: Bonds' mere presence in the lineup, even when he's hitting below .200, strikes fear in opposing pitchers and managers and translates into more Giants runs. If Bonds continues to get on base at a .500 clip, he's helping the team no matter what he hits. The big reason the Giants are doing well may be more based on luck. They're not getting on much if the bases are empty, but once men are in scoring position they're driving them home. So now there's two reasons not to walk Bonds. He's not hitting, and the team is doing better with men on base! Add to that, his knee may not be all that good: Three: If he can tweak his knee while doing something as innocent as striding and planting his right foot while taking a pitch in the dirt, then Bonds' situation might be even more tenuous than we imagined. Pitch to Barry! Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM
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April 07, 2006
Power Reversal
Permalink The Rockies only managed one home run in their opening series at Coors Field, but already smacked two in the first two innings at PETCO Park. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM
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Better Start
Permalink The Cleveland Indians scored 11 runs this afternoon in their victory over the Minnesota Twins. Cleveland's offense is off to a start that the complete opposite of 2005. In the first four games of last season, the team hit just .217, hit four home runs and scored 18. This year, they're batting .329, smacked seven home runs and crossed the plate 27 times. All the regulars save Belliard are hitting well right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 PM
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April 06, 2006
Cardinals on the Couch
Permalink Cardinals Diaspora takes a Freudian look at the Cardinals game last night. Mark needs to defy his father figures a bit, and allow some of his Id to creep into his game. Jam a few more fastballs inside on hitters, and you’ll receive a bit more of mothers’ (metaphorically speaking of course, we would never run down a man’s monther at the Diaspora) attention. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM
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Confirming a Feeling
Permalink Watching the Indians and White Sox, it struck me that Cleveland's luck against Chicago was already evening out from last year. Head-to-head in 2005, the Indians posted a .199 BA, .330 OBA and a .295 Slugging Percentage against the White Sox with runners in scoring position. They'd draw a walk, but not get the big hit. In the series just completed, those numbers were .276/.395/.448. They collected timely hits, they hit for power, and they still drew walks. This year, they've kept the rallies going. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM
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March 23, 2006
Detailing the Brewers
Permalink AJ Vaynerchuk at 15Sports takes an indepth look at the Brewers batters and pitchers. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:37 PM
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Fishing For Positions
Permalink Fishstripes looks at the catching situation in Florida: If you start Willingham and keep Olivo then Treanor is sent down. Your sending down someone who did their job well with the Marlins last season and is hitting .478. That to me is a hard thing to justify. There's another reason to go with this set of players not mentioned; the Marlins don't really have a better option in left. Treanor is not a long term solution as he's 30 years old, but he does get on base well for a catcher. So the best offensive team right now probably has Treanor catching and Willingham in left. It also effectively gives Girardi three catchers, which gives the new manager more flexibility. If he brings in Olivo late in the game for defensive purposes, and then finds himself in a position where he has to pinch hit for the catcher, he can do so and just move Willingham behind the plate. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 AM
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The NY Moxies
Permalink Metsblog notes the moxie of the Mets young players, especially Lastings Milledge. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM
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Powering the Twins
Permalink Aaron Gleeman discusses the Twins lack of power over the years. One of the reasons: The organizational hitting philosophies seem to stress things like making contact and hitting to the opposite field, and in some instances appear to actually discourage players (David Ortiz, Michael Restovich) from trying to hit for power. Ortiz's situation is the example that is brought up the most. He was asked to alter his natural approach at the plate while with the Twins and once he got to Boston, where he was able to let loose and try to become a full-blown slugger, that's exactly what he did. Every hitter has different strengths and weaknesses. It strikes me that good coaches figure these out and find ways to encourage the strengths while hiding the weaknesses. Forcing batters to conform to a team philosophy of hitting seems a good way of wasting talent. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 AM
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March 19, 2006
Mets Analysis
Permalink Bob Sikes trains his trainer's eye on Kaz Matsui and Pedro Martinez and believes the Mets are handling both well. And while that may mean Matsui loses his job, it may mean Pedro will be pitching well down the stretch drive. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:41 PM
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March 18, 2006
Change of Luck?
Permalink Although minor, Dave van Dyck notes the White Sox are dealing with injuries this season that they didn't need to deal with last year. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM
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March 16, 2006
Nice Guys Finish Last
Permalink Jim Leyland doesn't like the attitude of the Tigers: Leyland suggested the Tigers have too much of the calm dutifulness of the business world and not enough of the passion of the sports world. You can tell Leyland is a bit conflicted about this: The manager and coaches, Leyland said, can't do much to teach such traits. It's the players, he said, who must decide that "we're tired of being known as a bunch of nice guys who get beat." I'm not one who puts a lot of faith in intangibles, but a highly competitive nature seems to be a hallmark of great athletes. In my experience, it's something that can't be turned on and off (see Barry Bonds). These people get upset when they lose a friendly game of Candyland. Maybe that should be a test for future Tigers. See if they play a game of chance as if it were life and death. If they do, sign them up.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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March 15, 2006
Optimistic Cubs
Permalink Tom Elia tries not to be too negative about the shoulders of Wood, Prior and Lee. :-) Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM
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His Take by the Lake
Permalink Teepee Talk points out that it's shaping up to be a very good year for Cleveland teams. So good, he hasn't had time to get excited about the Indians! Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM
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March 14, 2006
Down On Third
Permalink Nick and Nick are not happy with the Twins choices at third base this season: I don't think my aforementioned pessimistic prediction (.220/.265/.430) will necessarily come true, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. Batista will hit low in the order, he'll strike out, he won't walk, he'll have a some doubles, not a lot of singles, and a few clutch 3-run homers. In some ways, he'll just replace what Jacque Jones was. I say .240/.295/.450, 25 home runs and 70 RBI is positive estimate for his productivity. Otherwise, it's going to very ugly before we are forced to replace him. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM
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March 08, 2006
Where's the Farm System?
Permalink Independent Thinking reports that the Royals signed their second independent league player in a month. If the Royals are dipping into players no one else wants, what does that say about their farm system? Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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Dissing the White Sox
Permalink For some reason, Angels fans seem to take joy in negative predictions about the White Sox. Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM
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March 04, 2006
Brew Crew Bashers
Permalink Brew Crew Ball wonders about how many homers Milwaukee clubs this season, and decides it's a pretty good number. It looks like Lee and Fielder are going to be quite the home run duo.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM
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February 28, 2006
Deadspin Previews
Permalink Deadspin started their team previews yesterday with the Devil Rays. Check the link everyday for updates. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM
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February 24, 2006
Young Angels
Permalink DailyNews.com updates the condition of Dallas McPherson's hip: With pain and frustration behind him - for the most part - Dallas McPherson can now work on supplying the Angels' coaching staff with a little headache. McPherson is one of the early arrivals to spring camp, and if he can show he is completely healed from a hip injury, he could force the Angels to scramble their preliminary lineup plans. I really like what the Angels did this winter. Very quietly, they got younger. Finley and Molina are gone, Kotchman and Mathis are going to be everyday players, and McPherson is looking to get significant playing time. That's three players 25 or under moving into the lineup. And if McPherson can play third, I suppose it's possible to get Erstad's bat out of the lineup with Figgins moving to center (although that may not be the best defensive alignment). Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM
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February 23, 2006
Healthy Cats
Permalink The Tigers are an unusual club this spring as they have no injury problems: Carlos Guillen looked loose taking grounders. Dmitri Young looked leaner. Magglio Ordonez looked powerful with the bat during the Tigers' first full-squad workout Tuesday. It seems every team has some player that's a question mark due to a previous injury. This gives the Tigers one less thing to worry about this spring. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 AM
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February 22, 2006
Unproductive Offense
Permalink The Detroit Tigers were 4th in the AL in batting average during the 2005 season, but 11th in OBA. So what do the Tigers need to work on? The solution lies on baseball's subtle side: using outs to advance and score runners. How about the team getting on base more, Jim? At least Kaline has a bit more perspective on this: Al Kaline, the Tigers instructor and Hall of Famer, said the productive outs become most important from the seventh inning onward. And it's from the seventh inning on, with the tying or go-ahead run on second or third base, that the Tigers' struggles to advance runners have become most noticeable during the losing seasons. Yes, late in close games one runs becomes very important. But the more people you put on base, the more chances you have of not being in that situation in the 7th inning. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM
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February 20, 2006
Ranking the East
Permalink Balls, Sticks and Stuff ranks the positions in the NL East and likes what he sees from the Phillies. He doesn't like the Marlins, however: The first thing that jumps out at you when looking at these charts is just how bad the Marlins are going to be in 2006. While some of the players they have at the top of their depth charts look to have some good potential and upside, most are still developing. It could be a long summer in Miam-uh. The problem with this analysis is that he simply ranks the players 1-4. However, there's a huge difference at first between Delgado and everyone else, while there's a much smaller difference amongh the shortstops, where Rollins is ranked #1 (I might have put Renteria there). Where the Phillies don't rank first in his analysis, they tend to rank far behind the leaders. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM
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February 17, 2006
Counting the Tiles
Permalink YankeesFan vs. SoxFan shows why the Yankees trading Javier Vazquez was a mistake. (Hat tip, DeadSpin) Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 AM
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February 13, 2006
Arms Race in the Central
Permalink ChicagoSports.com previews the AL Central, noting the plethora of good pitching in that division. While teams on both coasts get the most attention, the best pitching in the AL is definitely in the middle. Teams from the Central ranked first (Cleveland), second (the White Sox) and fifth (Minnesota) in earned-run average last season. Even Detroit improved to eighth around promising young starters. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:25 PM
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Assessing the Red Sox
Permalink With Boston packing for spring training, Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald gives his evaluation of the upcoming season: Entering spring training of this year, the variables are greater than any other in recent memory. The competition throughout the AL seems to have stiffened. And while GM Epstein can make additions and changes throughout the year, the Sox could finish with anywhere from 85-95 wins, which is an awfully big window for a team with a $135 million payroll. I agree. It's a good team with lots of question marks. The improved defense should make the pitching better. My big question is will Crisp, Lowell and Gonzalez generate enough offense? Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 AM
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February 12, 2006
Spaced Out
Permalink Evan Grant compares the Rangers to the solar system, pointing out question marks and places for improvement for the team. It's good to see the new GM thinking about pitch counts: Rangers GM Jon Daniels believes the offense is a lot like the sun. Even to the naked eye, its power is awesome, but what lies beneath is even more profound. Now, like solar engineers, the Rangers hope to tap into those deep reserves. I suspect losing Soriano will help a great deal here. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM
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Bling It On
Permalink Ken Macha likes the Athletics off-season moves: "This is probably been the least amount of player movement we've had," manager Ken Macha said. "The players we've gotten have added a little more bling to it." I believe the word "bling" officially jumped the shark. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM
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February 08, 2006
Braves Caravan
Permalink Home of the Braves took pictures at the Braves caravan stop. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM
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February 07, 2006
Weak Backstop
Permalink 6-4-2 Notes a hole in the Angels lineup. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM
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February 05, 2006
Catcher Race
Permalink Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post looks at Josh Willingham's chances of catching on with the Marlins: Willingham hadn't even unpacked the catcher's gear from his truck when the caller, Marlins manager Joe Girardi, unloaded a heavy question. Willingham's minor league offensive numbers are excellent; .400 OBA, .500 slugging. That kind of offense is easier to find in left field, so if Willingham can work behind the plate, the Marlins can make their offense deeper. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 AM
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Tigers on the Prowl
Permalink Dayn Perry pens an optimistic column on the Detroit Tigers, noting that the offense looks above average. Just to note, there is a typo in the table presented. The first difference (for Ivan Rodriguez) should be +28, not +88. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 AM
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February 02, 2006
Novel Idea
Permalink The Zoner blasts Dusty Baker and presents an igenious solution to the second base competition: I got a sawbuck says Neifi Perez comes out on top of this. And that would be the worst possible scenario. Here's a novel idea: Play Walker for 7 innings and then bring in a defensive replacement. There...was that so hard? Posted by StatsGuru at 07:05 AM
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January 31, 2006
Young Birds?
Permalink Cardinals Diaspora looks at the age of the Cardinals' hitters. He finds them young overall, but old in the wrong places: Looking at the list, it's clear that age for the overall team isn't the problem. The problem is the age of several key cogs in the team, and the lack of young talent to step in for the aging ones. The most important gray beard is Edmonds, without whom success figures to be hard fought. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM
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Old Enough to be Your Padre
Permalink Tim Sullivan of Union-Tribune makes a good point about the age and skill of the 2006 Padres: “The team's kind of built for this year,” Towers said. “There are some young players who are in the lineup, but it's not much different than San Francisco. It's a veteran ballclub. Once this year's over, hopefully we'll have some (more) of our younger players.” It didn't work for the Giants last year. We'll see if the Padres can sprinkle in enough youngsters to make it work this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM
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January 27, 2006
Bad Choices
Permalink National Interest analyzes Jim Bowden's moves. He doesn't paint a pretty picture. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 AM
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January 24, 2006
Thoughts on the Red Sox
Permalink Chad Finn offers his insights on all the latest Red Sox news at Touching all the Bases. This is pure speculation on my part, but I wonder if the Theo rehiring was somehow triggered by the completion of the Cincinnati ownership change. Castellini fired O'Brien so quickly he probably made up his mind to let Dan go before he took control of the team. So, while Catellini is hobnobbing with his fellow owners, might he start inquring to John Henry about Theo? After all, these are Castellini's criteria for a new GM: Castellini listed a litany of attributes he wants in a GM: Sounds like Theo to me. It is any wonder the Red Sox issued the message from the plan on the way back from Arizona? Posted by StatsGuru at 04:23 PM
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Expectations Brewing
Permalink Tim Gutowski reports that Milwaukee fans are looking for more than a .500 season from the team this year: Expectations also explain the wave of analysis accompanying the Corey Koskie trade. Doug Melvin acquired the veteran infielder for an unknown minor-league prospect, but fans are treating the trade as if it were a coup along the lines of Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Don't get me wrong -- I like the deal, which certainly seems like another solid move by the Brewers bargain-shopping GM. But the acquisition of a platoon starter who hit .249 in his last season is not usually accompanied by this much excitement. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM
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January 15, 2006
Shapiro on the Red Sox
Permalink Cleveland's Mark Shapiro on the Boston Red Sox: "Boston is positioned extremely well for the future," Shapiro said. "They have a good farm system with upper-level players and a depth of pitching talent. They've rebuilt the farm system from a dilapidated system to a productive one. If they take a small step backward this year, at some point they will go on a run that will be an impressive run. They're a short period away." Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 AM
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January 13, 2006
What's the Man's Name on Second?
Permalink Hal McCoy looks at the log jam at second base for the Cincinnati Reds. There is Ryan Freel, Tony Womack, Rich Aurilia, Ray Olmedo and William Bergolla all going to sleep at night dreaming of turning double plays on a steady basis with shortstop Felipe Lopez. The question in my mind, are any of these players the soluion. Aurilia and Womack are not every day players anymore. Freel gets on base well, but has off-field problems. That gives Narron three fairly young players to battle it out for the spot. Why not go into camp telling them it belongs to one of the three? With luck, the Reds will wind up with a long term solution to second base. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM
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January 10, 2006
Diamonds in the Rough
Permalink Bob McManaman reviews the off-season moves of the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'm a little surprised that Brad Halsey is not projected into the starting rotation. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM
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January 03, 2006
Projected Starters
Permalink A little easier to read than depth charts, ESPN gives us projected starters for American and National League squads. Make sure you get a look at the Marlins outfield. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM
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Depth Charge
Permalink CBSSportsLine.com updated their depth charts. It's a nice way of seeing how the moves made so far this winter affect each team. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:38 PM
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January 02, 2006
Marlins Song
Permalink FishStripes is trying to decide on a song that represents the 2005 Florida Marlins. Maybe he should just try to write one: (Since they play in the Dolphins home, sung to the tune of "Flipper")
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM
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December 29, 2005
Rooting for the Jays
Permalink A Red Sox fan explains why he's rooting for the Toronto Blue Jays. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:51 PM
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December 27, 2005
Red Sox Summation
Permalink Talking Baseball sums up the Red Sox off season. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:03 PM
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December 21, 2005
Filling the Gap
Permalink Joe Christensen looks at how the Twins outfield might shape up after losing Jacque Jones. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM
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December 20, 2005
Predicting Wins
Permalink Mets Geek uses Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to try to see how many wins the Mets added with their moves this off season. He pegs them at 95 wins. This post pegged them at 93 wins using a seat of the pants win shares estimate at the end of November. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM
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December 12, 2005
Guess the Lineup
Permalink Fishstripes invites commenters to leave their thoughts on what the Marlins opening day lineup will look like. I had thought of this myself: Dontrelle in the three-hole? Why not? Willis batted as high as 7th when the Marlins middle infielders were injured. Why not make him the rightfielder when he's not pitching? He's probably going to be a better hitter than some of the starting position players. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM
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December 08, 2005
Giant Anger
Permalink John Perricone is not at all happy with the Giants off season. Oh, and in one of the press releases I read, Sabean is quoted as saying that the Giants saved a million dollars a season on the Worrell deal by letting him go. Yeah, good, solid logic there. Two seasons of almost 70 blown saves for a team trying to get the last possible greatness out of Bonds to save $2 million. Throw a million dollars away to downgrade your relievers, throw $18 million dollars at an aging, declining and soon to be out of baseball Kirk Reuter, throw away $5 million dollars on Neifi Perez, throw away two seasons to save $2 million dollars on Tim Worrell, and then tell us you can't afford to sign real players and real pitchers 'cause your mortgage payments are too high, something we know isn't true, by the way. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 PM
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December 05, 2005
Cubs Stepping Up?
Permalink Dave Van Dyck points out that since the Chicago Cubs lost out on Furcal, they have lots of money to spend and lots of holes to fill: By unofficial calculations, the Cubs will have more than $57.5 million to spend on players this winter. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM
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Spending Efficiently
Permalink The Baseball Savant uses the late Doug Pappas' Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins ratio to see which teams spent their money wisely in 2005. Not surprising, the Cleveland Indians rank as the most efficient team. With the White Sox, Indians and Twins ranking near the top of the list, and the Royals and Tigers near the bottom, the AL Central provides us with great examples of the right and wrong ways to build a winner. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM
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December 03, 2005
Orioles Going Nowhere
Permalink John Eisenberg of the Baltimore Sun has an interesting observation about the Orioles: The Orioles did throw $65 million at Paul Konerko earlier this week, but you can always throw scads of money at players when you're pretty sure they aren't going to take it. Konerko, the heart of the White Sox, wasn't going to leave the reigning World Series champions for a losing team if the money was remotely equal, which it was. It's that old joke about not wanting to belong to any club that would have me as a member. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:01 PM
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November 26, 2005
The Future at Third
Permalink Jeffery Flanagan notices the Royals may be on the verge of a good problem at third: Gordon is potentially the organization’s new golden boy, its next George Brett, its highest pick ever, at least until next June when the Royals get the No. 1 overall pick. And Teahen has heard the talk about how quickly Gordon could rise through the system up to the big-league club. Some people don't seem to understand why the Royals traded for Teahen then drafted Gordon. The short answer; it's always easy to move a third baseman to another position. If both players were first basemen, then you'd be stuck. But third basemen have plenty of room in the defensive spectrum. If they can hit, they can move to the outfield (Miguel Cabrera) or first base (Jeff Bagwell). It gives the club a lot more flexibility. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM
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November 20, 2005
Connie Mack Used to Be Their Senator
Permalink The Marlins look more and more like a team about to dismantle. Marlins President David Samson would not comment Saturday. But sources said Florida's front office has been telling teams that, except for pitcher Dontrelle Willis and third baseman Miguel Cabrera, everyone is available because of orders to cut payroll from the club-record $65 million spent on last season's team. This looks like a very different approach than was taken after the 1997 championship. The Marlins are attempting to trade for prospects that can help them rebuild quickly, not just cutting payroll for the sake of cutting payroll. They're holding on to their two best talents and biggest draws. Florida is asking for top young talent from other teams. They're attempting to go for short term pain for long term gain. Connie Mack was famous for this, although his methods were different. Mack developed some great teams in Philadelphia, but he could not afford to keep those teams together. As the salary of his stars rose, Mack would sell off those stars to other teams. Look at the A's in 1914 and 1915. Six years of dominance was followed by the team being stripped of players. In the late 1920s and early 1930s, the A's dominated again, going to three World Series in a row at one point. Again, he sold off the team. The money was used to keep the A's alive during the lean years with hopes he could rebuild. It took him ten years the first time; he was never able to rebuild after the second selloff. If the Marlins do this right, they'll end up like the Cleveland Indians, with a few bad seasons followed by a rapid rise. With luck, Willis and Cabrera will be hitting their peaks just as the young talent kicks in. Update: Dan Le Batard blames lack of fan support. Correction: The A's went to the World Series three years in a row. They won two of them. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 AM
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November 16, 2005
Bubba Transition
Permalink I've seen some comments about the Yankees going with Bubba Crosby in centerfield next season, most recently in this post about the Matsui contract. Bubba is one of two cheap solutions to the Yankees centerfield problem, the other being Cabrera. Crosby is not a good hitter. He had some decent OBAs in his minor league history, but his overall minor league numbers are nothing to write home about. He'll be 29 in 2006, so he's not likely to improve at this point. As we saw in the playoffs, especially in the crash with Sheffield, Bubba can cover a lot of ground. Cabrera probably needs more time at AAA. I could see Crosby as a one-year stop gap. Just accept his offense, bat him 8th or 9th, and as long as he catches everything hit between Matsui and Sheffield be happy those balls aren't going for doubles. Then, if Cabrera is ready in 2007, go with him, or maybe with someone else who becomes available. The free agent choices this year are poor. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 AM
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November 12, 2005
Williams Replacement
Permalink The Yankees are finding it difficult to replace Bernie Williams: If the Yankees don't sign Giles to play center, they could be running out of options. They were rebuffed by the White Sox about a trade for Aaron Rowand, who dazzled with his glove in Chicago's only visit to the Stadium this year. Giles solves the offensive problem but doesn't solve the defensive problem. I agree that Patterson isn't the answer. How about this guy? Delgado and third baseman Mike Lowell are not the only Marlins being shopped by the front office. Center fielder Juan Pierre is being dangled as a third starting player the Marlins are willing to unload. He's not a great offensive player, but Juan can catch the ball. He's a perfect 9th hitter in the AL. If he's right, he gets on base enough to be a second table setter if A-Rod continues to bat second. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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October 31, 2005
Haunted House
Permalink The Royals turned Kauffman stadium into a haunted house, and Joe Posnanski uses the tour as a chance to say what scares him about the Royals. I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Royals’ defense lately, which is probably not too healthy. But I can’t shake this feeling that the biggest problem for the Royals — and this is a team loaded with more problems than Apollo 13 — is their atrocious defense. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM
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September 23, 2005
Streaking Angels
Permalink For the second year in a row, the Angels are putting together a winning finish to the season. They've won six in a row, outscoring their opponents 30-20 over that stretch. Last night's three-run victory was the largest winning margin during the stretch. In 2004, the Angels won 7 of their last 9 to take the West from the Athletics, outscoring their opponents 52-30. During that stretch last season, Vlad Guerrero put the team on his back, and with some help from Chone Figgins carried them to the title (and an MVP for Guerrero). Those same two players are leading the charge again, this time with some help from Adam Kennedy.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM
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September 21, 2005
Two Man Team
Permalink The San Diego Padres took another step toward their division title with a 5-2 win in Colorado. Peavy gave most of the bullpen the night off as he went 7 2/3 innings, allowing just two runs before Linebrink and Hoffman finished off the Rockies. Brian Giles knocked out two singles and drove in a run. His OBA now stands at .428 and Brian should be given some consideration for MVP. A good way to build a team is to find two superstars and surround them with competent players. The Padres have their starts in Peavy and Giles, but they didn't do a good job of surrounding them with talent. One more good starter, one more hitter with some power or the ability to get on base a lot and this team would be NL West champs already. They're very lucky to play in such a weak division this season. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 PM
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September 18, 2005
Altobelli Effect
Permalink In the preview for the NL East, I mentioned the Phillies might benefit from an Altobellit effect. Listening to the game this evening, I heard Jon Miller mention a quote from Billy Wagner that appears to confirm that observation. I found it on-line here: "Everyone made a big deal out of the Houston series," crowed Phils closer Billy Wagner, still fired up 45 minutes after the last out. "They kicked our tail. But we didn't sit around and talk about how terrible we played. We didn't let it ruin our season. Bowa accentuated the negative. Even a neutral Manuel would have helped.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 PM
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September 16, 2005
The Finley Deal
Permalink If the Angels fail to reach the post season, some of the blame can be attributed to the Steve Finley signing. Finley did not perform offensively this year, and his lack of offense led to the defensive hole that lost last night's game. The Angels, despite the fact that they have led the American League West for all but a few days this season, have not played well starting with the series before the All-Star break against Seattle. Last night that hurt LAnaheim: Colon no doubt thought he was sailing along with a 2-0 lead in the third inning. With Brandon Inge on first and one out, Chris Shelton hit a lazy fly to short center for the apparent second out. In this case, the best defense is a good offense. :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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Upset Guillen
Permalink Ozzie Guillen is not happy with the way the White Sox are playing: There is no sadder statistic and none that tells the story of the sagging White Sox's season better than this: The collaspe the South Siders are on may make people forget the 1978 Red Sox. This is turning into a bigger, lengthier fall than that fabled crash. By this point in the season, the Sox had given up their lead and were playing the Yankees evenly down the stretch. Like that Sox fall, injuries are playing a role in this one as well. And now, with just 17 games left in the season, there is concern about the arms of Garcia and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez and Hermanson's back. What's been the strength of the team all year is now becoming a weakness. They've had a bad turn through the rotation, the starters posting a 8.62 ERA in the last six games. Now they go to Minnesota while the Indians host the Royals. Odds are the Tribe won't lose any ground before they face each other on Monday. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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September 04, 2005
Can the Giants Win the Pennant?
Permalink The Giants are taking a advantage of the poor play of the NL West to make a late move in that division. They won their fifth game in a row today, 3-2 over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants have outscored their opponents 27-15 over the five games. The bullpen's been outstanding, allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings, a 1.65 ERA. They're now in second place in the NL West, 5 1/2 games behind the Padres. Most importantly, they have seven games against the Padres, three in San Francisco and four in the south. This leaves the Giants with a difficult decision regarding Barry Bonds. Do they bring him back now and risk further injury? They can catch San Diego, and Barry in the lineup (assuming he can hit) makes them a much better offense. With Lowry and Schmidt pitching well, Bonds and Alou providing offense, it's perfectly reasonable to expect the Giants to be able to win a short series. I'm surprised it's not over for the Giants. We'll see if Bonds or the pitching has enough to put them over the top. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM
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Solo Shots
Permalink The Cleveland Indians hit a lot of their home runs with the bases empty. They had two more solo shots today in a 7-5 loss to the Twins. That gives them 103 solo home runs on the season. They came into today 6th in homers in the AL, third in solo home runs and ninth in home runs with men on base. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:39 PM
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August 29, 2005
A for Power
Permalink The Oakland Athletics got off to an early 2-0 lead on a Jay Payton home run and are holding the score in the 5th inning. It's their 15th home run in the last six games. They've hit eight in the four game series against Oakland so far. Payton now has 12 home runs in 153 at bats for Oakland through four innings today. He had five in 133 at bats for Boston. Update: The A's power strikes again. The Orioles took a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the fifth, but the Athletics came right back with a 3-run homer by Dan Johnson in the top of the sixth to reclaim the lead. Gibbons hit a solo-shot in the bottom of the sixth, and teams have gone to the 7th with the A's leading 5-4. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:24 PM
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August 27, 2005
Youthful Arms
Permalink The Giants pitching staff is getting younger: General manager Brian Sabean said the Cain and Taschner promotions are "signaling an effort to try to win some games. The bottom line is to try to win and develop. The young kids are ready in our estimation. For that you're going to have to change the makeup of your roster." The Giants have perfected that, for Christiansen is the seventh player from the Opening Day roster to be dispatched. Kirk Rueter, Jim Brower and Marquis Grissom were released, while Matt Herges, Jerome Williams and Yorvit Torrealba were traded. Now, if they could just do that with the offense... Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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The Summer of their Discontent
Permalink John Eisenberg laments the month of August in Orioles land. IF CHARLES Dickens had sat in the Camden Yards press box as the Orioles' lamentable August unfolded, he would have written simply that "it was the worst of times, period." Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM
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Snake Bit
Permalink Nick Piecoro notes that the Diamondbacks, as bad as they were last year, were never this bad: It's hard to remember another stretch when the Diamondbacks have looked this bad. Ever. They lost 14 consecutive games last season, but at no point were the games this uncompetitive. During their six-game losing streak, opponents have outscored them 63-16. They were bad last year, but never this bad for a weeklong stretch. All 63 of those runs are earned, by the way. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM
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August 26, 2005
Mets Sweep
Permalink The New York Mets take all four games from the Diamondbacks by a combined score of 38-7. In three of the four games, the Mets pitching staff held the Snakes to one run. Wright, Jacobs and Diaz each added another hit tonight with Diaz blasting his 9th homer of the year for the margin of victory. The Mets stay with the Marlins as each pick up 1/2 a game on Philadelphia. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 AM
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August 22, 2005
Diamondbacks Predictability
Permalink Bob McManaman sums up the Diamondbacks pretty well in the View From the Press Box section of yesterday's game story: They just aren't that good. They're an average team with some pretty good players, but they have plenty of deficiencies. If they ever got in sync, they could go on a nice little roll, but don't hold your breath with this bunch. They're unpredictably predictable. Luckily for them, their in a division of not that good teams. A nice little roll might give them the division. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM
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August 18, 2005
Blue Jay Way
Permalink The Blue Jays won again last night, defeating the LAnaheim Angels 4-1. Along with Minnesota, they picked up a game on the field last night and are just four out of the wild card. With better luck, they should be winning the division. A good case can be made for Toronto being the best team in the AL East. With 591 runs scored and 505 allowed, the Jays record should be six games better than 63-57. In fact, they should be leading the Red Sox by two games. The Jays have not been able to win the close games this season. If they had played .500 in one-run games, they would be four games better than they are now and tied for the wild card lead. As we saw with the Nationals, luck in close games can turn quickly. If it does for Toronto, they can continue to surge in the race for best of the rest. One big part of the Blue Jays success this season is their defense. They have an above average DER, and they've allowed just 33 unearned runs, tied with the Angles for fewest. Their DIPS ERA is higher than their actual ERA, indicating a lucky staff, or in this case, a very good defense behind the pitchers. I'm still not crazy about the offense. When I look at the aggregate lineup for the season and see the #2 and #3 hitters with OBAs below .320 I wonder how they score many runs at all. But Riccardi found the pitching and defense, and his offense is good enough to win with that. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 AM
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August 16, 2005
A's Losing Streak
Permalink The Athletics lost two in a row for the first time in over a month. They lost two in a row to Toronto back on July 6-7. Since taking two of three from the Angels, Oakland's gone 1-3, scoring just 8 runs in the four games. I thought the Athletics run was over when a real skeptic turned and started betting on Oakland to win a lot of games. We'll see if I was too early with that prediction. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM
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August 14, 2005
Maybe It's Not the Park
Permalink Maybe the Nationals pitching staff is as good as they look at RFK. The team went into Colorado and not only swept the Rockies, but shut them down offensively. The Washington pitching staff yielded just four runs in the three games and even managed to pitch a shutout in game 2. More importantly, they gain two games on the Astros, and are tied with the victorious Phillies, one game back of Houston. Tomorrow, the Nats head to the city of brotherly love for another wild card showdown. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 PM
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August 09, 2005
Chemistry Is Winning
Permalink There's a great line in this AP look at how the Nationals are falling apart: All the warm and fuzzy talk about perfect team chemistry? Not so warm and fuzzy anymore. It's easy to have chemistry when you win. The Nationals don't seem to be holding together in adversity, however. All around the room after Sunday's sweep-capping loss to San Diego, there were other signs that the Nationals, the feel-good story of the baseball season's first half, don't have a whole lot to feel good about right now, having lost 17 of 23 since the All-Star break.. It's do or die as they open a series with Astros tonight.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM
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KC Losing Streak
Permalink Jeff Passan uses a day off to reflect on the Royals losing streak: No cars were in the players’ parking lot at Kauffman Stadium on Monday; not a spinning rim in sight. All day the gate was open, as if it were inviting — no, begging — Royals players to swing by: Please, boys, please. Just how heinous: Outscored 86-36. Forty-eight extra-base hits allowed. Hitters striking out 70 times. More gaudy numbers that merely outline the most important: 10. Outscored by five runs a game! That's impressively bad. Update: Royals Authority has more on the losing streak. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM
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Staying Fresh for the Stretch
Permalink Andy Call recalls the Cleveland Indians decline at this point in the season last year and examines what the Tribe is doing to avoid the same fatigue this season: Wedge is also counting on his players to be a year older and a year wiser where conditioning is concerned. What, no late night partying? Haven't these players heard of amphetamines? :-) Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 AM
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August 05, 2005
Kurkjian on the Orioles
Permalink Baltimore native Tim Kurkjian looks at the fall of the Orioles. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 AM
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August 04, 2005
Freakin' A's
Permalink Steven Levitt concedes he was wrong about the Athletics: A question for the baseball experts: has any team in history ever been as bad as the A's were early in the season and done as well as they are doing now? It has been an amazing run. It's a good question, one that I'll try to answer later today (at least, from 1974 on). There have been great comebacks, like the 1978 Yankees, the 1993 Braves and the 1995 Mariners, but those teams were all okay, got really hot and the team ahead of them got really cold. One other thing. I'm sure the Athletics great run is over. Economists, like everyone else, are much better at explaining the past then predicting the future. But, given the odds at Tradesports, I just put down a little money on the A's to win more than 88.6 games this year. This strikes me as a good example of a market top. Someone who was real skeptical of the team goes over to the other side. Maybe last night's loss by Oakland was the start of another horrid 20 games for the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM
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Two is a Streak
Permalink The Rockies won their second game in a row on the road last night, beating the Giants for the 2nd day in a row by one run. At 12-40 away from Colorado, this was the first time all season the Rockies won two in a row on the road. With the NL West as bad as it is, a modest Rockies winning streak could bring them back into the division race. They're "only" 12 1/2 games out. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM
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August 02, 2005
One-Run Streak Continues
Permalink The Dodgers defeat the Nationals 5-4. Washington's lost their last 11 one-run games. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM
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The Fall of the Nationals
Permalink Les Carpenter of the Washington Post looks at why the Nationals have fallen so fast. And if so, why had it disappeared so fast? The best answer seemed to lie in the results of one-run games, normally a reliable barometer of a team's resiliency. On July 8, the Nationals were 24-8 in one-run games. Since then they are 0-10 in such situations. Still, all that says is Washington can't win close games the way it once did. There lingered a deeper solution, something felt but unable to be grasped. I'd say a team's record in one-run games is more a measure of luck than resilency. But once you get by that paragraph, it's a pretty good article. Robinson discusses the weaknesses of the team quite frankly. Robinson doesn't believe his team was playing flawlessly in the first half, quite the contrary. While the statistics showed the Nationals were one of the best defensive teams in the majors, he saw blunders that worried him. Perhaps it was a bobbled ball that prevented a double play from being turned or a throw to the wrong base that allowed a runner to move up -- mistakes that didn't show up in box scores or were minimized and eventually forgotten when the other team didn't score. The Nationals are a team whose luck (at least temporarily) ran out. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM
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July 31, 2005
Padres Tailspin
Permalink The Padre decent below .500 continues. They lost 7-1 against the Reds. Woody Williams had the fourth consecutive poor start for San Diego, and the 9th in eleven games. They even made Eric Milton look good! It's amazing to me that the best the Padres could do at the trading deadline is rid themselves of Nevin and Blum and pick up Chan Ho Park. With the loss, the Padres fall into a tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks, both teams three games under .500. (Actually, Arizona leads by .0002.) Posted by StatsGuru at 06:40 PM
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July 30, 2005
Beltway Breakdown
Permalink With the Orioles and Nationals losing again today, the Baltimore-Washington area has gone from looking for a commuter rail series to also ran status. Since the All-Star break, the Nationals are 3-12, the worst record in the NL. The Orioles are 4-11, the worst record in the AL. The Orioles scored six runs today, but their starter was hit with a line drive early, and the bullpen couldn't handle the load two days in a row. The White Sox out-homered the O's 3-1. John Patterson pitched another good game for the Nationals. Giving up two runs in six innings. But Washington only managed four hits, a walk and a hit batter against Burnett, and nothing against the Florida pen, losing 3-0. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM
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July 29, 2005
Low and High Scoring Teams
Permalink Minnesota and Boston, like the Twins and Yankees earlier in the week, have different strengths. Boston is the better offensive team, Minnesota has better pitching and defense. I would think, off the top of my head, that the Twins would be better at winning low scoring games than the Red Sox. But it's not true. I'll define low scoring as contest in which no more than seven runs are scored by both teams. The Red Sox don't play many of these, and are 15-12, a .556 winning percentage. The Twins do play lots of games of this type, but they're only 19-27, a .413 winning percentage. Most surprising to me is the Yankees. For a long time they had not won a game in which they scored three runs or less. But they are 17-8, a .680 winning percentage in low scoring games. That's the third best winning percentage in the majors behind the White Sox and the Braves. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 PM
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July 26, 2005
Hitless Wonders
Permalink Tim Marchman in the New York Sun writes a great Sabermetric article arguing that the White Sox have the worst offense in the AL, and how unusual it is to have a team with such a poor offense do so well. A claim that the White Sox are a terrible offensive club should, rightly, be met with skepticism. The team is, after all, sixth in the league in runs scored, first in stolen bases, and on pace to win 107 games, this last number being the best evidence against the Sox being notably bad at the plate. There are a few mitigating factors, though. The most important among them is that they play in U.S. Cellular Field, which is one of the better hitter's parks in baseball. The team's last place ranking in runs scored on the road is more telling than that sixth-place ranking in total runs scored. It's a well thought out, well researched article. I hope you'll read the whole thing. This is a continuing trend. More and more I see a new generation of sports writers looking at stats in new ways. The paradigm is shifting away from BA/HR/RBI toward a more meaningful look at the numbers. Update: Casey Abell questions this story in the comments, rightly looking at runs per game on the road, rather than overall runs scored on the road. One problem that I have with internet sites that show team statistics is that they don't give you runs per game. You have to sit there and figure it out for yourself. It would be great if MLB or ESPN or Fox or CBSSportsline put runs per game into their sortable stats. Marchman should have spent the time figuring it out, but that stat should be available. I'll have to add it to the Day by Day Database. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 AM
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July 25, 2005
Farm Systems
Permalink Dan Agonistes quotes from an interview with Kevin Goldstein on the farm systems of the Red Sox, Braves and Dodgers: KG: Sure. The Red Sox system has certainly taken a step forward, particularly in terms of pitching, with Jon Lester, Jon Papelbon and Anibal Sanchez all having seasons one could categorize as breakout. So while it’s an improving system and they have every reason to happy, they’re still not in the same league as the Dodgers or Braves. The Dodgers have one of the best systems in baseball and the Braves, well, we’ve seen most of their prospects at the major league level recently. They also do a remarkable job of scouting and development – it seems like they’re always loaded with prospects." I've heard this about the Dodgers before. When DePodesta took over, he praised the Dodgers' great farm system. What I'm wondering now is why I'm not seeing any evidence of that great farm system at the major league level. If the farm system was so great, why did the Dodgers trade for a Yankees prospect at catcher? Why did they sign Jeff Kent instead of playing Antonio Perez? Why haven't they brought up someone decent to replace Drew? Why do they have Lowe and Weaver in the rotation? Why did they give eight starts to Scott Erickson? The Braves got in trouble, and they actually had prospects in their farm system that could play. DePodesta's old boss keeps finding people in his minor league system that can play at the major league level. Why not the Dodgers? If it's such a great system, why aren't we seeing a good, young team? Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM
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Cheer Loudly
Permalink Catfish Stew manages to weave Swedish tennis players and The Greatest Star Trek Episode EverTM into a post about the Athletics. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM
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July 24, 2005
Freaking Out
Permalink Early this season, I linked to a number of post on Freakonomics about the Athletics. Basically, he felt that Moneyball is a crock, and issued this challenge: For all of you who disagree with me - and the betting markets - go to tradesports and bet on the A's. The market thinks they will only win 82 games. If they are as good as you believe, there is a lot of money to be made. And after you all bet and drive the odds up, I will bet the other side. It seems fans are pointing out the Athletics record to Mr. Levitt lately. He's too busy to comment. But I want to know how much he bet when the Athletics were down. How much money are you going to lose, Mr. Levitt? He should have bet a bundle around May 26th. At that point, it looked pretty unlikely that the A's would be able to win 90 games. What happens next? Is Macha's job on the line? Will there be reassignment of players? Is Billy Beane safe? If the A's want to make the playoffs this year, they will need to remake this team quickly. They've blown a golden opportunity to gain ground on the Angels as the Rangers have. Since Macha and Beane are still there, what have they done to remake the team. Here's the A's through 5/26 and 5/27 through yesterday sorted by at bats. Basically, Swisher and Johnson are getting more AB, Crosby is back in the lineup, and Hatteberg, Byrnes (traded) and Durazo (injured) had their playing time reduced. On the pitching side, the rotation remains the same, while Glynn and Calero replace Dotel and Cruz in the bullpen. In other words, not much has changed. People are just performing better. Getting Crosby back was a big deal, as was promoting Johnson. But in the end, a team in a collective slump came out of it together. And today they find themselves tied for the wild card lead. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:26 PM
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July 22, 2005
Nothings Changed
Permalink The Washington Nationals, with a 3-2 loss to the Astros last night, have fallen into a tie with the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East. The Nats are 2-6 since the break. What are they doing differently? Nothing as far as I can see. Before the break, they had a great record despite being outscored by four runs. Since, they have a poor record, despite being outscored by only two runs. They are 0-4 in one run games since the break after going 24-10 in the close ones before hand. Looks like a typical case of regression to the mean. Update: It looks like Livan Hernandez will continue to pitch this season, although the reason for his anger Wednesday night is still not clear. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM
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July 19, 2005
Twelve-Seven
Permalink Whatever offense the Pirates had seems to have disappeared. They scored just seven runs in their last eleven games after being defeated by the Houston Astros in the first game of the double header 9-3. That's one more run than they had scored the game before the streak started, an 11-4 victory over the Mets. Twice in this poor streak, the Pirates allowed 11 runs. Only the shutout innings by Zach Duke kept them from a 0 in the win column as they've gone 1-6 in the stretch. Correction: The Pirates scored 12, not 11 runs in the streak. It seems I can no longer do sums in my head. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 PM
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Keeping Your Eye on the Ball
Permalink The Twins seem to be in a collective slump of pulling off the ball when they swing: "We're not doing the things we are capable of doing, that we need to do to win ballgames," Ullger said. "We're going to pop one into the gap and hit one over the fence, occasionally, but it is a byproduct of good hitting. A byproduct of hitting the ball gap to gap, staying on the ball. Gardenhire concurs: "Our guys are pitching their tails off, and we are not scoring any runs for them," Gardenhire said. "It gets real frustrating, watching guys swing and pull off the ball, and I know our guys are trying as hard as they possibly can, but it's not working out too good right now. We have to win baseball games and score runs." First, I wonder if this is true (Twins fans may wish to comment). Second, I wonder if there's something like a yawn going on here. You know, if one person yawns then everyone in the room starts to yawn? Did someone on the Twins started pulling off the ball and everyone else saw it and followed suit? Maybe the team needs some negative reinforcement. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:18 PM
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Getting Healthy
Permalink The Braves are getting healthy. Chipper Jones followed Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton off the DL and added a home run last night in Atlanta's 6-1 victory over the Giants. With Andruw Jones hitting two dingers himself, it looks like the division will have a tough time keeping up with the Jones. And as their health returns, regression to the mean is catching up with Washington. It was the Rockies, not the Nats who took home the one-run victory last night. Since the break, the Nationals are 1-4, and now stand just 1/2 game ahead of the Braves. The masters of close wins the first half, all five games since the break have been decided by 2 runs or less. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM
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Yankees in First
Permalink Tyler Kepner sums up last night's game nicely: It took a perfectly flawed game to put a spectacularly flawed team into first place. On a night when their obvious problems nearly did them in, the Yankees took the last, best gasp and outlasted the Texas Rangers on Monday, 11-10, to take over first in the American League East. Since the Yankees injected Robinson Cano into the lineup on May 3rd, the team is playing .600 ball with a 39-26 record. In that time they've gained three games on Boston and seven on Baltimore. It's not a great team, and I still believe .550 won't win the division. However, the Red Sox seem to be back to their, "What, Me Worry?" attitude of 2003: ''If this were later in the season, I'd be concerned," said Damon. ''We didn't catch fire until this time last season. We just have to be better in all phases of the game. Kazmir just had good stuff tonight. It seems like everyone makes fun of the Devil Rays, but they show up to play every time with everything they've got." It's not just another game. It's a game the Red Sox should win easily. Last I looked Tampa Bay wasn't a very good team. Instead of sitting around waiting to get hot, the Red Sox should figure out how to get hot. Both teams still need to deal with the Orioles. The O's are likely to get better just by getting healthy. They did that with Erik Bedard last night, and Javy Lopez is almost ready for a rehabilitation assignment. On top of that, a trade is in the works for AJ Burnett. The AL East is not a strong division, but it may provide the most exciting division race of the season. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:12 AM
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July 13, 2005
Washington Nationals
Permalink It's amazing. The Washington Nationals have been outscored by their opponents 361 to 357 yet are 16 games over .500. They just keep winning the close ones. Their record in 1-run games at the break stands at 24-10. If you go to 1 and 2 run games, they are 31-15, which accounts for their total record over .500. Win the close ones, split the blow outs. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM
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Toronto Blue Jays
Permalink The Toronto Blue Jays did a poor job replacing Carlos Delgado. In what should be a premier hitting position for any team, Blue Jays first basemen have a .299 OBA and a .404 slugging percentage. No set of AL first basemen have a lower OBA. With his .385 OBA and his .537 slugging percentage in a pitcher's park resigning Carlos Delgado would have the Blue Jays much closer to first place than they are today. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:33 PM
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Texas Rangers
Permalink The Texas Rangers are leading the American League in home runs hit by a wide margin, 26 ahead of 2nd place Baltimore. They have double digit home runs totals in slots 1-8, and are only two away from 10 in the 9 hole. Seven of the slots have 15 or more home runs. It's a balanced, powerful attack. They just need to get on base more (.332 OBA, 7th in the AL) and those home runs will really do some damage. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 PM
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Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Permalink Someone should explain to the Tampa Bay pitching staff that Tropicana Field is a hitter's park and they should do better when they hit the road. Their 8-35 record away from home can be cleanly placed on the back of the pitchers. Their ERA goes from 5.09 at the Trop to 6.78 in other stadiums. Most amazing, they've given up 11 more homers on the road in 57 fewer innings compare to their home numbers. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 PM
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Seattle Mariners
Permalink It's hard to believe a team with Ichiro, Beltre and Sexson would be bringing up the rear of the AL in batting average, on-base average and slugging percentage. But Seattle is behind the Royals in all three. Somehow, Seattle's managed to outscore KC by two runs, so officially the Royals are last in offense. With Ichiro setting the table for the two off-season pickups, I expected scoring to increase in the great northwest. But Ichiro is flirting with .300 instead of .400. Sexson's playing fine but nothing outstanding, while Beltre's performance is certainly making 2004 look like a fluke instead of a player coming into his prime. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM
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San Francisco Giants
Permalink Do you think the Giants miss Barry Bonds? Last season, Giants left fielder hit .337 with a .555 OBA and a .703 slugging percentage. This season, they're at .296/.349/.426. That's actually above average in BA and OBA, but the power isn't there. The team as a whole has 252 walks; last year Bonds drew 232. It's difficult to lose that much offense and still win. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:02 PM
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San Diego Padres
Permalink The Padres offensive strength lies in it's outfield. Padres right fielders rank 1st in the NL in OPS; the centerfielders rank 6th and the leftfielders 8th. Together, they have an OPS of .866 vs. a league average of .796 for all outfielders. That should put them near the top of the league. Unfortunately, I can't find a ranking. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:59 PM
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St. Louis Cardinals
Permalink The Saint Louis Cardinals are blessed with a great bullpen that they don't need to use much. Cardinals relievers threw the second fewest innings in the majors this season, just behind, the Astros. They have the best ERA of any pen in the NL, and La Russa keeps the firemen fresh. At .92 innings per appearance, they pitch the least of any set of relievers within a game. Of course, that means lots of trips to the mound by Tony, but you can't argue with the results so far. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:37 PM
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Permalink The next time someone tells you about the importance of a good closer, point them to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have converted 25 of 29 save opportunities this season, good for 2nd place in the majors in save percentage at 86.2%. But they've only had 29 save opportunities, which puts them in the bottom nine in the majors. It's good to have relief pitching that can finish a game, but without the offense to build a lead for the pen, a great closing staff is wasted. You can't get a save unless you have the lead. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:26 PM
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Philadelphia Phillies
Permalink The Phillies have a much better pitching staff than their overall ERA indicates. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the NL in ERA on the road (3.82), trailing only the Cardinals in that category. However, that great road mark does little to help them win away from home. They have a 19-25 record as the as the offense if scoring less than four runs a game outside of Philly. Brett Myers should probably be 6-0 instead of 2-4 on the road this year. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM
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Oakland Athletics
Permalink The Oakland Athletics offense had a very similar season to the LAnaheim Angels. Two poor months followed by an outstanding month and a half. The A's hit 28 home runs total in April and May; they've hit 40 in a month and a half since. The Athletics borrowed something else for the Angels; the Athletics are not striking out. Oakland batter struck out less than any other team so far this season, and they're right up among the leaders in plate appearances. You can see the change in their fortunes with a lowering of their strikeout rate. They K'd in 15% of their at bats in April and May, only 12% in June and July. A few more balls in play, a few more hits and a few more runs scored. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:10 PM
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New York Yankees
Permalink Although Rob Neyer invented the Beane Count in homage to Billy Beane and the Athletics, it's usually the Yankees who are out in front in the four categories; home runs hit and allowed, walks drawn and issued. This year is no exception as the Yankees have a Beane count of 16, first in the American League. Unlike the recent past, however, the Yankees are not dominating all categories. The offense is great, 1st in walks and 3rd in home runs. The pitching staff doesn't issue walks, ranking 2nd. But the New York staff is giving up the long ball. The Yankees pitchers rank 10 in allowing home runs. It's the one category of the Beane Count where a low ranking really hurts a team. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:57 PM
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New York Mets
Permalink With the great majority of the pitchers facing your team right handed, it behooves a team to hit well against that type of pitcher. The Mets are not doing it this season. There's a large fall off in batting average and slugging compared to how they hit against lefties. Cliff Floyd is a lefty who is pounding righties, but switch hitters Beltran and Reyes are doing poorly. If the Mets are going to contend in the second half, they are going to need to find a way to beat up on right-handed pitchers more often. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:47 PM
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Minnesota Twins
Permalink The Twins this season pretty much define the six-inning game. The offense falls off sharply from the 7th inning on. The offense's batting average drops 50 points and slugging drops 100 points. They draw walks, however, as their OBA only goes down 16 points. But while we might expect to see about 1/3 of a team's runs scored 7-9, we only see the Twins scoring 1/4 of their runs in that frame. The pitching does the same thing, shutting down the opposition from the 7th on. Similar fall offs in batting average, OBA and slugging percentages can be seen in the opposition batters. If you've tuned into a Twins game after the 6th innings, you've missed all the action. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:29 PM
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Milwaukee Brewers
Permalink One of the reasons the trade of Scott Podsednik for Carlos Lee worked so well for the Brewers is that they had Brady Clark in the leadoff spot. Clark, like Podsednik is an older, stop-gap player designed to handle the slot until the farm system starts paying dividends. Clark's .380 OBA from the leadoff spot is the main reason the Brewers are tied with the Reds for first in team lead off OBA at .373. Correction: Fixed spelling of Podsednik. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:55 PM
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Los Angeles Dodgers
Permalink The Dodgers have a 4.53 ERA at the break. If that holds up, it will be the highes the team's allowed since moving to Los Angeles, including the years played at the Colsieum. The problem is the Dodgers are near the bottom of the league in K per 9, ranking 12th at 6.12. If Depodesta thought he could get away with a staff that allowed the ball to be put in play on the ground, he was wrong. They are getting an above average ratio of ground balls to fly balls, but it doesn't look like they're turning into outs. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM
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LAnaheim Angels
Permalink The Angels offense played two seasons so far. In April and May, they could not hit, get on base, or power the ball. Since June 1, that's turned around. You know things are good when Adam Kennedy is hitting .412. :-) The first two months LAnahiem played 52 games and scored 228 runs. In just 36 games since, they've scored 192. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:19 PM
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Houston Astros
Permalink In a weak season for middle order hitters, the Astros #5 slot stands out as particularly bad. The group is batting .213 with a .277 OBA. No other team has a BA below .245 nor an OBA below .310. The Astros hitters in that slot do have a little pop. Their respectable .200 isolated power keeps the position from being a total loss. No one's done particularly well there, but in his 124 AB, Morgan Ensberg at least slugged .500. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM
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Kansas City Royals
Permalink I'm trying to find something good to say about the Royals, something that might give the fans some hope. Unfortunately, I can't even find something good to say about Mark Teahen, the subject of a Michael Lewis piece from earlier this season. He doesn't have a great batting average. That would be okay, but he's not walking either, so his OBA is really poor. We didn't expect him to have power right away, but he's not even hitting very many doubles. I'd like to say he's a selective hitter, but 3.8 pitches per PA is good but not great. I'd like to say he's great at putting the ball in play, but he's struck out in about 1/4 of his at bats. I'd like to say he's improving as the year progresses but a poor July is following a decent June. When Mike Schmidt played his first full year at age 23 (like Teahen) he didn't hit for average, but he drew a ton of walks and hit for power. He did two useful things very well. So far, Mark has shown none of Mike's skills. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM
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Florida Marlins
Permalink The Marlins are very consistent in their situational hitting stats this season. None, on, runners on, scoring position don't differ by more than 10 points. But there's one situation in which the Marlins really shine, and that's with the bases loaded. The Marlins lead the NL in batting average, OBA and slugging percentage in that category. Their .672 slugging percentage is first by more than 60 points; no team does a better job this season of advancing a full pond toward home. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM
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Detroit Tigers
Permalink The Tigers finish the first half of the season with an excellent 3.88 ERA. Unfortunately, they're in the best pitching division in the AL, with Chicago, Minnesota and Cleveland all doing better. One other big difference between the Tigers and these defenses is the number of unearned runs allowed. The Tigers are at 45. The White Sox are at 26, the Indians at 28 and the Twins at 32. That's about two games they've lost relative to the White Sox on unearned runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 AM
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Colorado Rockies
Permalink It's difficult to imagine the ineptitude of the Colorado Rockies offense. They are scoring 3.0 runs a game away from Coors field. They're OBA is .288 on the road, while their slugging percentage is .352. No wonder they're just 7-33 away from Coors. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM
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July 12, 2005
Cincinnati Reds
Permalink One would hope that a park works the same way for both the offense and defense. So when you leave a hitters park, you expect your offense to get worse and your pitching to get better. That's not what's happening with the Reds. The Reds offense is scoring 5.6 runs at home and 4.0 on the road. The pitchers, however, go from allowing 5.7 runs per game at home to 6.0 on the road. It's one thing to build a team to do well in your park. But some of that sucess should transfer to the road. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 PM
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Cleveland Indians
Permalink The thing that strikes me about the Indians is the difference between the homers they've hit with the bases empty and with men on. Their 72 homers with the bases empty rank third in the American League. But a paltry 32 homers with men on base put them 12th in the AL. It could be that the Indians power is just being pitched around with men on. They've drawn almost as many walks in that situation as with the bases empty, despite almost 500 fewer at bats. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 PM
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Chicago White Sox
Permalink When I look at the White Sox aggregate lineup (1-9), I'm quite surprised they're scoring as well as they are. They have three good lineup positions, 1, 4 and 6. If they got those three players together, they might score some more runs. A big difference between the White Sox offense and their opponents is batting with runners on. The White Sox go from a .245 batting average with none on to .286 when men get on base. White Sox pitchers go the other way. With none on, they allow a .253 BA, but with men on that falls to .238. The power difference is even more telling. The White Sox pitchers allow just a .360 slugging percentage with men on base; the White Sox batters slug .454. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM
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Chicago Cubs
Permalink The Cubs are showing how well the Pythagorean formula can work. They've scored 394 runs and allowed 394 runs and are one game under .500 at the break. So which way do you go to improve the team? Having a healthy Prior and Wood should help the pitching. Shortstop, left field and center field are having poor offensive years. Improving one of those positions, with better pitching through health would put the Cubs over .500 in the second half. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 PM
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Boston Red Sox
Permalink One thing different about this Red Sox team than the ones I remember from the 1980's is that despite putting a ton of runners on base, they're not leading the league in grounding into double plays. From 1986 through 2002, the Red Sox were tied with the Yankees for the AL lead in OBA and grounded into the most double plays. This year, they're .001 behind the Yankees for 2nd in OBA, but just 7th in double plays. That's huge. In the three years Theo's been running the club, they're first in OBA in the majors by four points, but 15th in GDP. No more Boggs walks on four pitches, Barrett walks on four pitches, Rice swings at the first pitch and grounds into a double play. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 PM
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Baltimore Orioles
Permalink The Orioles need to stop the slide in their offense. Every month so far, the hitters as a team have gone down in batting average, on-base average and slugging percentage. A team that was scoring 6.0 runs a game in April is averaging 4.2 runs per game in July. That's not going to win the AL East. Teams would also be wise to stack as many lefty hitters as possible against the Orioles. Lefties are hitting .300 against the O's pitchers, righties just .230. Chen, Ponson and Cabrera are particularly susceptible to lefties. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM
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Atlanta Braves
Permalink The Braves took a page out of Moneyball this season as far as base stealing goes. They're successful 80.6% of the time (best in the NL), swiping 54 while only being caught 13 times. The people who can steal run a lot (Furcal, Giles), and everyone else pretty much stays put. They're deriving a huge advantage from this, as opponents are 43 for 66, a mere 65%. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:34 PM
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Permalink It's interesting to note that despite the fact that the Diamondbacks show no power vs. lefties, they're seeing lefties at about the league average. While the team batting average only differs by a point, the Diamondbacks drop 80 points in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. I remember a time when teams would turn lefty relievers into starters just so they could pitch in Yankee Stadium. Opponents of the DBacks would be wise to persue a similar strategy. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:02 PM
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July 06, 2005
Measuring Little Ball
Permalink Brian Greene writes: For 2005 the White Sox and Angels have outperformed their RC the most, by 20 and 14 runs respectively. As a result they're 8/9 in scoring overall when their team OPS's are 14th/18th. On the surface this looks like a victory for small ball since Scioscia/Guillen are perceived as the biggest preachers of it. On top of that, the Angels and ChiSox were 1st/5th last season in outperforming their RC. So do you give any credence to this?? And it's a very nice spreadsheet, showing exactly what Brian discusses. As for the small ball argument, I'm leery that it's the cause of the over achievement. After all, runs created is designed to measure the effects of small ball, as it includes stolen bases, caught stealings and sacrifices. When I see big differences from RC and actual runs, I start looking for things in the offense that aren't balanced. For example, the Angels are hitting .314 with runners in scoring position, way above their overall .275 team BA. The White Sox anomaly is their hitting for power with men on base. Overall, they slug .422, but that goes up to .458 with any runners on. The White Sox tend to move their base runners a long way. So I see the reasons for the difference Brian points out as really being timely hitting, or timely power hitting. A pessimist would call it luck, and optimist might consider it good lineup construction. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:36 PM
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July 05, 2005
O Is Not for Offense
Permalink With their loss today, the Orioles are 3-12 since June 20th. Only the Royals, with 1 win in that time are worse. While pitching and defense were certainly a problem today, the falloff in offense is dramatic during this losing streak. Runs are down 2 1/2 per game. Batting average and OBA are down 50 points, and sluggin percentage is around 90 points lower. Even with a good staff, you're not going to win many games in the AL scoring less than 4 a game. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM
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July 03, 2005
On-Base Perigee
Permalink The Astros today have four batters with on-base averages below .300, including the five and six hitters. Rogers Clemens, with a .290 OBA, is doing better than Jason Lane. Only Berkman and Ensberg are over the NL average of .332. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM
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July 02, 2005
How Does Washington Do It?
Permalink The Nationals won another game today, beating the Cubs 4-2. When I look at the boxscore, however, my first impression would be that they lost. The Cubs out hit them 8-5. They out walked them 2-1 (although Washington put a batter on with a hit by pitch). Each team had a double, a triple and a homer (Derrek Lee missed the cycle by a double). The Cubs simply did not take advantage of their opportunities. They were 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position. Washington was 1 for 2 with two sacrifice flies. The Nationals keep getting little bits of luck; a timely hit, a timely out, a timely double play. And they keep extending their lead in the NL East. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 PM
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July 01, 2005
Oldies But Goodies
Permalink John Smoltz and Andrew Jones combined to help the Braves to a 9-1 victory over the Phillies. Although the Braves brought up a number of young players, the veterans like Jones, Franco, Giles and Smoltz are really carrying the team. Smoltz struck out seven through six innings, and Jones extended his ML HR lead with his 26th. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM
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June 30, 2005
A's Plus
Permalink The Oakland Athletics appear to have corrected their early season problems and are on a 14-4 streak since June 10. The offense, which was amazingly weak, has scored 101 runs over their last 18 games. Take a look at the batters over this time period. All the regulars save Swisher are getting on base, and Swisher is making up for his lack of OBA with power. On the pitching side, the young guns of Harden, Blanton and Saarloos have been pretty unhittable, despite the fact that they're not striking out many batters. Zito still is near the bottom of the pack in ERA, but in the last 18 games he's post a 3.55 mark. Teams will take that from their fifth best starter any day. And the A's finally gained a game on LAnaheim (that's it!) last night. The Angels are 13-5 over the same time period. It may be difficult for Oakland to win the west with the hole they've dug for themselves, but they're only six games out of the wild card. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM
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June 29, 2005
Missing Ryan?
Permalink Kevin Sherrington of the Dalls Morning News notes how the Rangers went down hill after releasing Ryan Drese: Bulletin: Ryan Drese beat Pittsburgh, 2-1, Tuesday. In his three starts for the Nationals, he's gone eight innings twice and given up one earned run in 16 innings. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 AM
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June 28, 2005
Yankees Win Shares
Permalink The Baseball Crank uses his established win share levels to look at where the Yankees are underperforming. Basically, something needs to be done about the pitching. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM
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Giant Headache
Permalink Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle sums up the Giants season: The 2005 Giants are worse than bad. They are excruciating to watch. I wonder how many prospects the Giants can get for Alou? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM
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Oriole Blaming the Umps
Permalink It's a bad sign when a player or a team starts blaming the umps for their failures: The Orioles have been called for eight balks, most in the majors. Nobody's reacted more angrily than Kline. Yes, that's why the Yankees out-walked the Orioles last night 9-2. The umps want the Yankees to win in Camden Yards. It had nothing to do with the pitching staff's inability to put the ball over the plate. Jim Palmer didn't think it was a balk last night, and the angle the Orioles broadcast used seemed to confirm that (they were looking from the centerfield camera). But the YES broadcast had Kline in profile, and it was pretty clear from that angle that Kline came out of the set and started his delivery when he stepped back off the rubber. That's a balk. Had he just stepped back from the set position, it would have been legal. But he started his motion first. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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June 27, 2005
Cardinals Keep Rolling
Permalink On May 27th of 2004, the Cardinals started a 3-game winning streak that would propel them to an easy victory in the NL Central. From that date, they are outplaying the majors by a wide margin. Through Sunday's games, the Cardinals are 129-63, fourteen ahead of the next closest team in that time period, the Atlanta Braves (115-77). When the streak started, they were just 23-21, three games behind the Reds. The Reds are 49 1/2 games behind the Cardinals since that date. How have they managed this stellar .672 winning percentage over more than a full season's worth of games? They have the lowest ERA in the majors by nearly .2 of a run (3.58 to the Twins 3.75). The starters pitched well, third in the majors in ERA, but the bullpen's been unbelievable, posting a 2.76 ERA in that time. The next closet pen belongs to the Angels at 3.44. I'm not a big fan of the constant switching of pitchers, but over the last 13 months La Russa's used it to shut down the opposition. The offense has the higest BA in the NL over that time (.279) and all the averages are excellent (.349 OBA/ .452 slugging). That's good enough for first in the NL in Runs per game and third in the majors. The main offensive contributors are here. Ninety-nine home runs between Pujols and Edmonds, 214 RBI and 270 runs scored. A look at the pitching contributors shows the importance of the bullpen. The top four on the list have only allowed 20 home runs in 284 innings. It's a great run by a great team, and the Cardinals are showing no signs of letting up. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM
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June 24, 2005
Depth in Detroit
Permalink The Detroit Tigers Weblog notices that the Tigers have oganizational depth. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:51 PM
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Losing Big and Small
Permalink Was Watching has more on how the Yankees are losing. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM
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June 23, 2005
Losing to Tampa
Permalink Does a team that goes 3-7 against Tampa Bay deserve to make the playoffs? I don't think so. They're a combined 3-10 vs. TB and KC, the two worst teams in the league. If they were 10-3 against these two doormats, the Yankees would be in first place by two games. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM
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June 21, 2005
Reds Offense Unleashed
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds hitters went hog wild early tonight, picking up 10 runs in the first three innings against the Cardinals. Every starter has reached base, and Dunn is the only one not to get a hit so far. The Red offense wasn't the problem, however. Claussen is pitching well enough to win tonight, but he's not doing anything great. He's yet to strike out a batter, and he's allowed four runs through five innings. That won't win him many games in the future. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM
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June 20, 2005
Smart or Lucky?
Permalink Dan Agonistes shares his thoughts on the White Sox and smart ball. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM
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June 17, 2005
Cold Heat in Cleveland
Permalink Joe Reaves of the Arizona Republic notes the Indians winning ways:
They're the best AL team since May 9th? I didn't realize that, mostly because they haven't gained much ground in the standings. But it's true.
Not a great time to play near a bay. :-) The Indians offense has gotten better, scoring 4.7 runs per game vs. 3.7 per game before that. The pitching's improved even more, with their ERA falling 1 1/2 runs. The problem the Indians had over this stretch was within their own division. They were 3-4 vs. the Twins and 1-2 vs. the White Sox. So half their losses came against the teams they needed to beat. They'll need to turn that around to capture the wild card or the division. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM
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June 16, 2005
June Swoon
Permalink The San Diego Padres continue to slide in the month of June. With a 3-1 loss to the Tigers today the team's record goes to 3-11. They're scoring 2.4 runs per game while allowing 4.9. So while neither the offense nor defense is great, the onus for losing falls more on the side of offense. Although this chart doesn't include today's game, it's clear the only person hitting at all is Ryan Klesko. The team went through a series of illnesses at the beginning of June, but the players supposedly have recovered. Maybe the virus that was going around took a bigger toll than expected. Despite the streak, the Padres are still in first place. They're lucky to play in a rather weak division. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:49 PM
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June 15, 2005
Brave New Road
Permalink The Atlanta Braves are hitting poorly on the road this year, and they're losing 7-1 in the 6th inning tonight at Texas. As you can see, a number or regulars are not hitting well on the road this year; four are below the Mendoza line. Only the injured Chipper Jones is hitting well away from Turner Field. This surprises me. Turner doesn't seem to be the launching pad that Fulton County Stadium was. The pitchers have about the same ERA home and road. I wonder what's going on? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM
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June 14, 2005
Icing on the Angel Cake
Permalink Vlad Guerrero's return meshed nicely with the gearing up of the Angels offense. After two lackluster months, LA/Anaheim picked it up in June, thanks mostly to Garret Anderson and Darin Erstad finding a groove. Erstad is actually on a 14 game hitting streak in which he's scored 15 and driven in 12. The new found pop makes the Angels 7-4 in June, and was in evidence as they trounced the Nationals 11-1 last night. The only Angels without hits were the late inning defensive replacements. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM
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June 13, 2005
Reds Hot Offense
Permalink The Cincinnati Reds are finally realizing their offensive potential this June. They're getting on base at a .369 clip and slugging an amazing .530 as a team this month. They have the most home runs in the majors this June:
Unfortunately, the pitching has gotten worse. A 6.49 ERA this month means the Reds are just 5-5. Still they were 10 games under .500 coming into June. One step at a time. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM
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Avoiding the Age Cycle
Permalink Tony Massarotti in the Boston Herald suggests the best course for the Red Sox this season may be to do nothing: With the Red Sox now 62 games into their season, there are precisely seven weeks remaining until the annual July 31 trading deadline. That is the point by which Epstein must decide whether these Red Sox can again be championship material, whether they are worth parting with top prospects like Hanley Ramirez and Jon Papelbon. If they are not, here is what Epstein should do: Nothing. ``We're not afraid to trade prospects,'' Epstein said. ``But we take very seriously the impact players in our farm system can and will have on our major league team for years to come.'' After winning the championship last season, I thought it was possible for the Red Sox to let their free agents go and start building the team internally. Winning gave them the opportunity to step back and build for the long term. They could take three or four years to develop a strong, young core that could then be used to take them into contention for years in the future. But they decided to try to repeat. And now they are in an interesting situation. They are in the race, but not one of the best teams in the race. If they make the playoffs, they can win with some good luck. There is no super team in the American League this season. So a small improvement in the Red Sox might lead to consecutive World Series victories. But how much are they willing to spend for that? In New York, the answer would be anything. But the Yankees are now in a cycle of aging. Young players are traded for older stars. Older free agents are brought in to fill gaps. The team gets older, talent declines, injuries accumulate, and the team doesn't win. The Red Sox should avoid this. Sometimes it's better not to win this year if you believe you can win for the next decade. So Massarotti's advice is good advice. The Red Sox no longer need to win now. They are fortunate to possess enought talent that even without moves, they may make the playoffs and win the series anyway. Theo needs to keep his eye on the long term success of the team. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 AM
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June 12, 2005
Ten in a Row
Permalink The Washington Nationals won again today, extending their winning streak to 10 games and extending their time in first place. The defeated the Mariners 3-2 for their 16th one-run win. That pushes them past San Diego for the most one-run wins in the NL, although the Padres have a better winning percentage (Washington is 16-7, SD 15-4). It's the fifth one run win of the streak. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:30 PM
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Pirates on an Even Keel
Permalink Lots of things went right for the Pirates yesterday as they crushed the Devil Rays 18-2 to reach the .500 mark. Rookie catcher Ryan Doumit had a 3 for 5 day. Three of his four hits this season have gone for extra bases. Ward and Castillo combined to drive in nine runs. And Oliver Perez showed off his 2004 form, striking out 10 in seven innings. They're 9-3 on the current home stand and are just 3 1/2 games out of the wild card race. Lloyd McClendon has his sites set higher than a .500 record. "All it means it that we've won half of our games," he said. "That's not our goal. I don't know if it's significant at all in June." For a club that's wallowed in mediocrity since the departure of Barry Bonds, it's significant that they've reached this level. From 1993 on, Pittsburgh is 865-1070, a .447 winning percentage, fifth worst in the majors (KC, Milwauke, Detroit and Tampa Bay are worse). For the first time in a long time, Pirates fans have something to cheer about. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM
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June 11, 2005
Torre Takes Responsibility
Permalink I was watching Baseball Tonight on Tivo this morning, and Joe Torre took responsibility for the Yankees poor play. He said that it wasn't the batting coaches fault or the pitching coaches fault, it was his fault. His job is to have the players ready to play, and they weren't ready last night as a very sloppy game turned into an 8-1 loss to the Cardinals. Now that Joe is responsible, what is to be done? How many closed door meetings can Torre hold with the team? Is Joe putting the best team on the field every day? Is making out the best batting order? Should his use of relievers be questioned? While Joe won't say if there's a problem with the batting or pitching coach, certainly it's Torre's responsibility to make sure the pitchign and batting coaches are improving the team. Joe said exactly the right thing last night. But now he needs to show he can motivate these players; that he can find ways to make them improve, that he can prepare them for the game. If he doesn't, his job deserves to be on the line. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM
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June 09, 2005
Royals Ringing in Wins
Permalink Is there reason to be hopeful in Kansas City? The Royals offense is showing signs of life under Buddy Bell, and KC won its sixth game in eight tries under the new manager last night.
It's interesting that a 50 point increase in batting average leads to only a 40 point increase in OBA. Are the Royals making more contact? They're striking out a little less under Bell, about 1 less per 100 AB. My guess is that they are being more aggressive at the plate, probably swinging at pitches earlier in the count. So far, it's working for them. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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June 08, 2005
Making Contact
Permalink The Hardball Times team stats page is chock full of interesting information. For offenses, it includes batting average on balls in play. Which team is leading the American League in that category? The Tampa Bay Devil Rays at .323. Which team is leading the AL in batter strikeouts? The Tampa Bay Devil Rays with 367. They're also near the bottom of the league in walks, which means they're not being selective at the plate (Boston strikes out a lot and walks a lot, so it can be done). It seems to me the DRays are a team of pent up offense. They hit the ball hard (high line drive percentage) but not often enough. Lou should sit the team down and explain to them that if they just make contact more, they'll lead the league in hitting. Somehow, he needs to convice them to lay off the balls out of the strike zone. If that happens, you'll see the Tampa offense jump to the top of the league in runs scored. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 AM
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June 05, 2005
Low Losers
Permalink Driving home listening to the Yankees-Twins game today, I heard one of the announcers say that the Yankees had not won a game in which they scored three runs or fewer. I'm always a little leary of stats like that, since no context is given. Don't teams tend to have poor winning percentage when scoring three runs or less? The answer is yes, but the Yankees are the only team in the majors without a win in that situation. They are now 0-20 with today's 9-3 defeat. Every other team in the majors has at least two wins; the overall willing percentage is .206. Not surprisingly, the White Sox have the best record scoring three runs or less at 8-9, a .471 winning percentage. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM
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Late Drives
Permalink The Washington Nationals moved into first place today in the NL with a 6-3 victory over the reeling Marlins. They scored all six runs in the 7th and 8th innings. That's been the best time of the game for the Washingtonians this season. Coming into today, they're batting 20 points higher from the 7th on than in innings 1 through 6. Their OBA goes way up, from .316 to .355, and their slugging percentage also rises, from .384 to .429. With today's runs, they've scored 132 runs in first six frames, 101 after that. They're going a great job with tired starters and weak middle relievers. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 PM
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Those Phillies!
Permalink The Phillies offense is off to another great start today. They're batting in the third and have already scored six runs. Seven of the fourteen batters the Phillies have sent to the plate so far today have reached. During the previous nine games, of which the Phillies have won eight, everyone is reaching base. Look at the team breakdown here. Over the last nine games, the worst regular getting on base is David Bell, and he has a .371 OBA! I'll take that as the worst on my team any day. They haven't been pounding the ball; ten home runs in nine games isn't that unusual. But when a team puts men on base at that rate, many of them are going to come around to score. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM
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June 04, 2005
Trading Places
Permalink Up until today, the Red Sox relievers had a slightly better ERA than their starters. So it one could see where Terry Francona would not be afraid to take out a starter with a lead after 100 pitches. That's what happened today; Arroyo used 103 pitches over six innings and outpitched Bartolo Colon, allowing just 2 runs to Colon's 5. The game should be in the bag. But the Red Sox pen managed to blow past the starters in ERA this afternoon. Arroyo brought the staff down to 4.75 from 4.78, but 11 earned runs by the pen in just three innings made the relievers ERA soar half a run from 4.71 to 5.27. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:39 PM
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Giant Hole
Permalink The Giants are in danger to losing their 8th straight game. The Mets lead 4-1 in the top of the 8th. The offense, while not great, hasn't really been the problem in the slump, scoring a little over 4 runs a game. It's the pitching and defense that hold the most responsibility, allowed over 7 runs a game over the last seven. But today, Tom Glavine shut the offense down. They had nine hits, but the only run came on a solo homer by Moises Alou, who is a triple shy of the cycle. And that's not to say the pitching wasn't bad; Lowry allowed nine hits in 4 1/3 innings and four runs. 7 Games Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM
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May 31, 2005
Express Ideas
Permalink The Dallas Morning News gets Nolan Ryan's opinion of the Rangers. But here's what Ryan likes best about the Rangers' pitching: The lineup around it.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 AM
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May 26, 2005
Selling the Sox
Permalink Evan Brunell gets a sneek peek at some new Red Sox merchandise. :-) Could Red Sox fans be feeling the breath of the dreaded Yankees on their necks? Could they be a little worried as the Orioles pull out to a four game lead? Could Sox fans really turn on heroes like Millar, Bellhorn and Foulke? Let's start with Millar. Can a 33-year-old suddenly decline? The answer is yes. Is there any evidence that Millar's start is more than just a random fluctuation? No. Given Millar's career .288 batting average, his 95% confidence interval for hits is 34 to 56 over 156 at bats. And there is a 6.5% chance that he would have less than 37 hits at this point in the season. His batting numbers aren't significant yet. Next is Mark Bellhorn. Yes, Bellhorn strikes out a lot, but he did that last year as well. While his numbers are down from last year, they're down just slightly from his career averages. Mark is 30 and past his prime. Declines may not happen at this age, but they should be expected. Keith Foulke? I'd be worried about Foulke. His K per 9 is down 2, his walks per 9 is up 1, and his HR per 9 is up 1 vs. his career through 2004. Still, it's a small sample size. Foulke plays a position, however, where large sample sizes are difficult to come by. Little mistakes by a closer can turn into large losses for the team. The report that he was injured that appeared on Dirt Dogs has been denied. Maybe he's just getting old, too. Renteria, like Millar, is within his 95% confidence interval for hits. Most likely, Millar, Bellhorn and Renteria will regress to the mean and hit better over the course of the season. Meanwhile, the negativity is creeping into the Red Sox clubhouse. Head idiot Johnny Damon earns his title: "We're a really bad team right now," Damon said. "We need to win tomorrow. It's a must win. We need to get back to that stage where every game is a must win instead of just saying 'Oh, we'll be OK.' It's a different year." This is not a bad team. It's a good team going through a bad stretch. The Sox can talk to the Yankees about that tomorrow. It's good that fans and players are complaining; you always have to fight complacency. Management did that over the winter when they tried to improve at shortstop and starting pitching. Many teams when they win the World Series stand pat. I'm sure they're now looking at ways of fixing the problems they have. If you remember, the Sox were underperforming the first half of 2004. Trades and regression to the mean improved the team in the 2nd half last year. It's way to early to panick. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM
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May 25, 2005
Runs in the Cards
Permalink Viva El Birdos follows up on my post from yesterday on the Cardinals and finds that the opposition defense is responsible for all those extra runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:53 PM
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May 24, 2005
Depth
Permalink The St. Louis Cardinals are 8-4 since Scott Rolen last played on May 10th, bring their record to 28-16. They are scoring more runs without their slugging third baseman, even through they're not hitting as well:
I don't have situational hitting broken down by date, but I would guess that they're hitting better with men on base or men in scoring position since they've lost Rolen. That's the beauty of having so many great offensive players; one goes down and the team remains strong. I would not expect this level of scoring to last with these averages. Runs created (newest formula in The Bill James Handbook 2005) predicts the Cardinals should have score 53 runs instead of 66 over this time period, or about a run per game less. It's an example of a good team getting the lucky breaks. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM
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May 23, 2005
Run Reversal
Permalink The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit a bad streak that's landed them three games out of first place in the NL West. In their last 11 games they've gone 3-8, with a complete reversal of their previous performance:
Over their first 32 games the Dodgers outscored their opponenets by 27 runs; over the last 11 games they've been outscored by 24. Obviously, there are people to blame on both sides of the ball. Izturis and Choi are doing a good job setting the table, but Drew and Kent are not providing the follow-up. Kent was off to an MVP type start. Neither Kent nor Drew has homered since. Among the starters, only Lowe has a decent ERA and two of the three wins during the period. It looks like the Dodgers are temporarily going with four starters, as the Odalis Perez injury takes effect. Penny and Weaver have combined to give up seven homers in 31 innings, while Yhency Brazoban has been very hittable desipte great strikeout and walk numbers. He's given up six runs in four outings since Gagne returned to the closer role. I'd be more worried about the pitching than the hitting. Drew and Kent are likely just in slumps; anything can happen in a few games. But Weaver has a history of giving up the long ball, while Penny and Erickson are coming off injuries. It enough to concern a Dodgers fan. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM
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May 20, 2005
Help From Below
Permalink The Cleveland Indians have currently dug themselves into a deep hole. They are 11-17, 11 games out of first place in the AL Central and six games out of the wild card. Is there hope? Maybe not this year, but as I look at the morning paper I see the Buffalo Bisons at 24-15, leading the IL North Division and the Akron Aeros at 23-15, leading the EL Southern Division. Given the records of these two teams, somebody in their minor league system can play the game. Maybe it's time to bring up some new faces; the current ones aren't getting the job done. The record of Buffalo appears to be a bit of luck, as they've only outscored their opponents by 14 runs. But the Aeros' record is for real. They've scored 188 run and allowed 155, which translates to a .595 winning percentage. Those players may not be able to turn the team around this year, but things look very good for the future. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:24 PM
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Be Happy You're Miserable
Permalink When my good friend Jim Storer and I get together, at some point we start quoting Annie Hall. This one gets used a lot: I feel that life is divided into the horrible and the miserable. That's the two categories. The horrible are like, I don't know, terminal cases, you know, and blind people, crippled. I don't know how they get through life. It's amazing to me. And the miserable is everyone else. So you should be thankful that you're miserable, because that's very lucky, to be miserable. Which brings me to today's Hal McCoy column on the Cincinnati Reds: It is easy to point a crooked finger at the Reds pitching staff and say, "Ah, there is the rub, there is the problem." And while for the most part the pitching has been three steps below miserable, it isn't the only mystery wrapped around an enigma. Three steps below miserable is getting pretty close to horrible. And the 0-7 in quality starts is pretty amazing. The team winning percentage in Quality Starts this season is around 70%. That makes the probability of winning 0 games in seven quaility starts .000219. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM
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May 19, 2005
Deal with the Devil
Permalink Take a look at the Devil Rays lineup today. What a motley collection of poor hitters. They have two people with any ability to get on base, and they're batting 8th and 9th. No one has any power except the 35-year-old journey man first baseman. How can this be? The Devil Rays have been miserable since their inception. Has there ever been a season in which they didn't have one of the top draft choices? After seven seasons, they should be swimming in talent. Stretches like this for the Mets produced Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. Stretches like this for the Athletics produced Canseco and McGwire. Where are the Devil Rays superstars? Looking at the hitters in the lineup today makes it abundantly clear how poorly this franchise is managed. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM
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May 18, 2005
Western Steaks
Permalink The Yankees and Padres continued their winning ways last night. Carl Pavano pitched about as well as one could expect, tossing a five-hit, complete game shutout at the Seattle Mariners. He struck out seven, and the only free pass was a plunked Bret Boone. While it was the team's third shutout of the streak, make no mistake that it's the offense that carrying the team. In the ten games, they're averaging 7.7 runs per game, hitting .309 with a .384 OBA and a .537 slugging percentage. In other words, the entire team is hitting like an MVP. Even Jason Giambi got into the act last night, going 3 for 4 with his fourth homer of the season. A-Rod launched number 13, and now is just six away from 400. The San Diego Padres faced a tough challenge from John Smoltz last night, but got to Danny Kolb to eke out a 3-2 win and extend their streak to six games. The Padres bullpen continues to be one of the best in the NL. Their 2.86 ERA is only topped by the Milwaukee Brewers. They pitched four innings of 1-run ball to keep the team in the game until the heart of the order could put together a rally in the 9th, capped off by Greene's game winning RBI. The use of the bullpen is somewhat worrying, however. They've thrown more innings than any other set of NL relievers; at some point, the starters have to give them a rest. Right now, however, they've propelled the Padres into the NL West lead. The pitching staff has only allowed 14 runs in the six game streak, and the bullpen is only responsibel for 2 of those in the 16 1/3 innings they've pitched. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM
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May 15, 2005
James on the Royals
Permalink Michael Eglinski sends this article by Bill James on what's wrong with the Royals. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:36 PM
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May 13, 2005
Falling Angels
Permalink I didn't realize how bad the Angels offense was until they moved outside of their division.
Only Vlad Guerrero and the injured Ben Molina are really hitting well. Steve Finley is finally showing his age; Erstad, Figgins and Cabrera have contributed nothing. (What is the feeling about Eckstein vs. Cabrera in Anaheim? Would anyone like to have David back, or does Orlando's defense make up for his lack of offense?) The more I look at the AL West, the more I think Texas has a real shot at the division. They're the only team that can hit so far, they just need to solve their bullpen issues. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:36 PM
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May 12, 2005
Outfielder Acquisitions
Permalink Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun notes the Orioles need for right-handed hitting, especially in light of the injury to Matos and the illness of Sosa. He doesn't think calling up players from the minors is the way to go, however: If this team is going to keep up its surprising winning ways and challenge for the postseason, it needs reinforcements a little more battle-ready than two hard-nosed rookies making their major league debuts. Reed is not going to be a major league hitter. Fiorentino may be. But the whole point of having a farm system is to develop players who can fill in when injury and illness strikes. A team should not need to trade away players in these circumstances. So I applaud the Orioles for not panicking, and giving the youngsters a chance to play. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 AM
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May 11, 2005
Time for a Switch
Permalink The Mets and Cubs are tied at three after scoring a run in the top of the ninth off Dempster. Blown saves are popular today. In looking at the Mets lineup, however, I have to ask the question, isn't it time to move Diaz and Wright to the top of the order and Reyes and Matsui to the bottom. Imagine Diaz (and/or Cameron) leading off with Wright helping to set the table and then Beltran, Floyd and Piazza coming up behind them? It has to be a better offensive configuration for the Mets. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM
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May 10, 2005
Trio
Permalink U.S.S. Mariner looks back in time and explores why the Mariners didn't win with Griffey, Johnson and Rodriguez and what they could have done to reach the top. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM
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May 09, 2005
Three in a Row
Permalink The Yankees win three in a row for the first time this season. Randy Johnson pitched well, Tino Martinez hit another home run, and Mariano Rivera had a very easy ninth inning. True, they've earned these wins against Oakland and Seattle, but after Tampa Bay took three out of four from New York last week, it looked like it was over for the Yankees. They've dug themselves a big hole, but they're starting to look better. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM
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League Problem
Permalink There is something seriously wrong with the American League. Look at this chart.
On average, AL and NL teams are scoring the same number of runs a game. The three worst scoring teams in the majors are Cleveland, Kansas City and Oakland. The last I looked, they didn't have pitchers batting. At the top of the list, the Dodgers and Cardinals score more than all but three American League teams. The Dodgers score more runs per game than the Yankees! The American League has always been associated with offense. Even before the DH, the AL usually had higher overall run scoring than the NL. The reason for this probably has to do with the adoption of the power game. The NL in general was slow to adapt to that style of play, while the AL (which had to compete with the likes of Babe Ruth) embraced it much quicker. But now, even with a designated hitter, American League offenses have stagnated. Lots of American League teams have become, frankly, boring. Why is this happening? It could be that the competitive imbalance is higher in the AL than the NL and the lower tier teams have given up. But Oakland and Cleveland are two organizations that have developed their teams intelligently with small budgets. They certainly are trying to win. It also could be that the single, walk, three-run homer strategy doesn't work well without the single. Of course, maybe the opposite view is the correct way of viewing things. It's not that AL offense is bad, it's that AL pitching has finally passed NL pitching. Only one AL team has an ERA worse than Cincinnati and Colorado. Is it the new ballparks? Great American is a hitters' park, but Petco belongs to the hurlers. No, it keeps coming back to the offense. AL designated hitters are hitting as a group .250/.328/.405 vs. a league average of .261/.326/.405. The designated hitters should be well above all those numbers. The league as a whole concentrated a lot of money in a few good offensive players, and there's just not enough left to fill in the gaps. Correction: Fixed a typo.Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM
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May 04, 2005
Saving for the Future
Permalink The Marlins lost 5-2 to the Braves today to fall into a tie for the division. The Marlins are having a good offensive season; they entered the day third in the NL in runs scored per game. The Marlins are achieving this despite poor years from beginning and end of their offense. Juan Pierre is not getting on base. He's played 25 games and has walked only 4 times; that would work out to about 25 for the season. That's way down from his last two seasons. His OBA stands at .316. At the other end, Mike Lowell is hitting below the Mendoza line. Lowell has been up their with Rolen as the premier NL third basemen over the last two seasons. With the players getting on base ahead of him, Mike should be having a monster RBI year. If these are just slumps, it's good news for the Fish. When Juan and Mike bounce back, the team will be that much stronger. If not, it's good they've added LoDoca and Delgado to make up for the lack of offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:08 PM
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April 26, 2005
Surging Snakes
Permalink The Diamondbacks are surging toward first place with a four game winning streak. They're 1 1/2 games out after defeating the Dodgers last night behind strong pitching by Javier Vazquez. Vazquez's performance was a microcosom of his best seasons; lots of strikeouts, few walks and scoring on homers. The Diamondbacks starters now rank 5th in the NL in ERA, despite a high ERA by Vazquez. With Halsey and Webb pitching well, Ortiz and Estes holding their own, a return to the form Vazquez showed between 2001 and 2003 will give the Diamondbacks one of the best rotations in the division. A nice job so far by Joe G. Jr. to rebuild that staff. Update: There's some speculation that Joe Garagiola Jr. might be headed to MLB headquarters to replace Sandy Alderson. That would be too bad for the Diamondbacks. Joe has done an excellent job in his tenure with the Diamondbacks, winning a World Championship faster than any other expansion team. Not all of his moves have been great (see Richie Sexson) but overall he's put together a very good team year-to-year. That's not easy to do. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM
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April 25, 2005
Astr-0s
Permalink The Astros are shutout for the fourth time this season as Pittsburgh defeats them 2-0. Jose Mesa picks up his 7th save in 7 tries. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM
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Home At Last
Permalink Here's a Phillies fan who is taking the Braves sweep well. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM
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Phalling Phillies
Permalink Balls, Sticks and Stuff rounds up the poor performance of the Phillies so far this year. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:16 PM
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April 24, 2005
Close Difference
Permalink The White Sox eeked out another close win today, defeating Kansas City 4-3. Chicago is now 9-1 in one-run games. The Indians (who lost by 8 today) have also played 10 one-run games and are 3-7. The difference between the two teams in the standings (6 games) is almost entirely due to their difference in these close games. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM
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April 23, 2005
Diamonds in the Desert
Permalink Brad Halsey pitched another nice game for the DBacks last night, holding the Padres to two runs over seven innings as Arizona went on to a 5-3 win over San Diego. It's giving me hope that the Diamondbacks will have a pretty good year. Take a look at how the DBacks starters are doing so far this season. Webb and Halsey are pitching very well. They're 5-0 combined. If those two can pitch well enough to be significantly over .500, the rest of the staff just has to tread water to have a chance at the playoffs. The real interesting pitcher on the list is Javier Vazquez. Look at his strikeout and walk numbers. Those are not the statistics of a pitcher with a 7.65 ERA. Quick and dirty DIPS gives him an ERA of 3.50. If Vazquez can improve that much over the course of the season, that would give the DBacks three more than solid starters, and that should be enough to compete. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM
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April 21, 2005
One Run Wins
Permalink The White Sox take a 4-3 win over Detroit today, running their record in one run games to 7-1. Guillen is investing a lot in one-run strategies, the team being near the top of the league in stolen base attempts and outs invested in one-run strategies (CS+SH). They've also been very good at hitting sacrifice flies. The Gene Mauch managers live on. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:14 PM
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April 18, 2005
Winning Close
Permalink The White Sox defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-4 tonight, raising their record to 9-4. Chicago, however has only out scored their opponents by three runs this season. They are now 6-1 in one run games. The pitching has been very good, the offense hasn't. But they've been in sync, with the offense doing a good enough job when the pitching has been great. How long will this good luck last? Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 PM
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April 13, 2005
March On Washington
Permalink The Washington Nationals complete their opening road trip on a high note, beating the Braves 11-4. They'll open at RFK tomorrow with a share of the NL East lead and possibly the top home run hitter in the NL, Jose Guillen. Jose went deep twice today to pass Pat Burrell and Troy Glaus for the NL long ball lead. First in war, first in peace, and first in the NL East! Posted by StatsGuru at 04:27 PM
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April 12, 2005
This is a Problem?
Permalink Who would have thought that someone pitching well would cause a problem for the Pirates? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM
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April 06, 2005
Twin Adjustments
Permalink Ron Gardenhire is trying to get Lew Ford to stay ahead of the curve: The Twins are worried that the league is catching up to Ford, who has a tendency of pulling everything. He did finish strong in spring training, during which he batted .300 in 22 games, but he's going to have to prove he can stay one step ahead of the scouting reports. It's another example of the Twins being a smart organization. They have a good hitter in Ford, and they want to make sure he stays good. Johan Santana had to adjust within the game last night: "It's just a matter of establishing your pitches," Santana said. "I didn't have that much time to do it because they were swinging early. Second inning on, I started working everything, breaking balls got going." Did they Mariners, despite the loss, expose a Sanatana weakness? Is there an advantage to being agressive with Johan in the first inning? We'll see as the year goes on if teams that score early against Santana are swinging early in the count. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM
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March 28, 2005
Just Baseball
Permalink Ray Ratto offers a number of reasons for Bay Area fans to watch the Athletics this season. The A's are giving us the eternal hope of spring, and the promise of the eager nonroster player, and the smell of the morning grass, and the sweet sounds of ball on bat, ball on leather, and "Kevin Pittsnogle from the corner . .. FOR THREE!" Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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March 21, 2005
Pitching Prowess
Permalink Are the Washington Nationals going to be better than we think? A paragraph in this article about the Nationals rotation caught my eye: Spring training isn't about statistics, but the numbers provide some evidence that the Nationals' rotation, though clearly not as overpowering at the front end as other teams' in the National League East, should be quite capable of competing. The five presumed starters -- Hernandez, Tony Armas Jr., Esteban Loaiza, Tomo Ohka and Zach Day -- have thrown 60 2/3 innings against major league clubs this spring, walking only nine with 25 strikeouts and a 2.97 ERA. Six of those walks have come from Armas and Day, who both have ERA's over five this spring. But if this group is pitching well as a whole, then the former Expos are playing to a strength. RFK looks like a park that would be tough on offense. According to the STATS All-Time Baseball Source Book, RFK had a park index of 97 for runs and 96 for HR during the years the second Senators team played there, meaning it reduced scoring and long balls. If the starters can continue to keep men off base with free passes, and the park knocks down fly balls, the Nationals will have a good team ERA. Find some offense, and you have a winning team. Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM
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March 08, 2005
"It Was Hell", Recalls Former Child
Permalink Houston's loss to the Indians today brings back bad childhood memories at Throws Like a Girl.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM
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March 07, 2005
Waiting for A Winner
Permalink Palmball links to an article detailing the reasons for the poor performance by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on the 10th anniversary of the creation of the franchise. Palmball has the best line, however: March 9th marks the tenth anniversary of MLB's announcement that professional baseball was coming to Tampa Bay. We're still waiting. Stuart Sternberg, who has bought out four of the five managing partners, has a chance to see his investment blossom. If they can get the team winning, the Rays will draw fans and increase the value of the team. They need to stop investing in washed up and/or low OBA players, however.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:22 PM
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February 28, 2005
From Queens to the Bronx
Permalink New York Magazine looks at the upcoming baseball season, profiling Omar Minaya of the Mets and speaking to three experts about the Yankees. On Minaya, I thought this paragraph the most interesting: More intriguing, though, is that Minaya envisions a new model for building a team that’s neither purely intuitive nor coldly rooted in on-base-percentage calculations. The Mets will still draft dozens of players, but they’ll increasingly deploy Minaya as a recruiter, almost in the mold of a college coach, particularly in Latin America. There, the amateur players aren’t subject to the major-league draft, so teams with big money and connections have a sizable advantage. This winter is a vivid example of how the approach can pay off at the bottom and top of the ladder: Minaya’s signing of Martinez attracted that 16-year-old Dominican shortstop who showed up at the Mets Academy because Pedro now wore blue and orange. And it also gave the Mets credibility with Carlos Beltran. He's two for three on the salesmanship so far, landing Pedro and Beltran, but losing out on Delgado. Turning the Mets into winners will also help recruitment a great deal. Tim McCarver, Rob Neyer, and an unnamed scout discuss the upcoming season for the Yankees here. I like this exchange on the age of the team: Is the high number of yankees 35 or older a problem? Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM
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February 13, 2005
Off Off-Season
Permalink Just how bad was the winter for the Astros? KEY ADDITIONS: Left-handed pitcher John Franco, right-handed pitcher Dave Burba That's a huge negative as far as the sums go. Burba and Franco bring a lot of experience, but not a lot of ability. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM
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Indians' Year?
Permalink Mark Shapiro told Indians fans that Cleveland would compete again by 2005. Paul Hoynes takes a look at what good thing can happen to bring the Tribe back to the playoffs, as well as the things that can go wrong to keep them in the 2nd division. One point with which I disagree: What will probably happen: After being nursed through spring training and the early part of the regular season, Boone regains his form to become the Tribe's regular third baseman and No. 2 hitter. When Boone was at the top of his game in 2000 and 2001 he posted OBAs in the .350s. Not surprisingly, that was at ages 27 and 28. Boone is more likely to get on base in the .330 range, which would put him much lower in the batting order. After all, he's had a year-off from the game; he's going to have to relearn his batting reactions. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 AM
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Speed and Defense
Permalink Dave van Dyck looks at the what-ifs of the Chicago White Sox. Ken Williams/Ozzie Guillen: Architects of the new-design White Sox. Never one afraid to take a chance, Williams rebuilt this team on speed and defense after first-year manager Guillen convinced him that dialing home run was not the way to win, even though U.S. Cellular Field plays like it's a phone booth. Everytime I hear a team trade power for speed, my mind races back to the 1982 signing of Dave Collins. The Yankees had just lost the World Series to the Dodgers. George Steinbrenner signs Collins declaring that this was the speed era. This was the start of the era of bad Yankees management that would keep them out of the playoffs for 13 years. My gut feeling is that the White Sox are in for a disappointing season. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM
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February 10, 2005
Eighth Okay
Permalink Athletics Nation is no longer dreading the 8th inning. No more white knuckle endings...suddenly, A's fans can stop asking their doctors for blood pressure medicine. Of course, the reality of the situation isn't as bad as you might think from that post. The A's allowed 75 runs in the 8th inning last year, tied for 20th (1 is most) in the majors. Only three AL teams allowed fewer runs in the 8th, with the Yankees allowing the fewest (63). In fact, the 8th was one of their best innings. They allowed 97 runs in the 5th inning, and 94 in the 3rd. The 8th ranked 7th among the 9 innings. And if you look at runs per 9 IP, the 8th is actually better than the 9th! (4.17 allowed in the 8th, 4.32 allowed in the 9th.) The Oakland fans are looking for improvement in a place that wasn't a problem. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 AM
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February 03, 2005
Outfield Oracle
Permalink The Detroit Tigers Weblog ponders the makeup of the Tigers outfield if the team signs Magglio Ordonez. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM
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February 02, 2005
Cornered
Permalink The Cub Reporter takes a look at what to expect from the Cubs outfield corners this year after the departure of Alou and Sosa. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM
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January 24, 2005
Age Old Problems
Permalink The Astros signing ancient reliever John Franco prompts Mike's Baseball Rants to explore teams with old rosters. He looks at the teams with the most 40 year-olds on the roster. Not a lot of successful teams in the list although the 1958 Yankees won the World Series with four forty year olds. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM
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January 18, 2005
Bird Squawks
Permalink Soccer Dad criticizes the Orioles owner for a lack of patience. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:56 PM
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January 12, 2005
How the Mets Were Won
Permalink Mike's Baseball Rants takes a stab at using win shares to predict how the Mets will fare this season. I like this post because Mike spells out all the assumptions he makes. He's pegging them at 87 wins if they sign Delgado. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM
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December 23, 2004
Rays Rant
Permalink A Devil Rays fan writes:
I didn't see the ESPN article, but here's one from the St. Petersburg Times talking mainly about the Josh Phelps signing. Phelps is one of several free agents the Rays plan to add. Current talks seem to be focusing on veteran infielder Alex Gonzalez, whom they would use at third base, and outfielder Danny Bautista. In other words, nobody really good. The problem is that the Devil Rays are going after washed up veterans or players like Mohr and Phelps who have a mixed track record. They also appear to never have heard of OBA. I hold out some hope for Phelps; he's still young and he'll help the team if he can get his OBA back in the .350-.360 range. For the price they're paying, he has a huge upside. But they should be trying that at all their holes; sign young players for under a million and see if they perform. I'd rather see that than Juan Gonzalez playing out the string at DH for messing up in right field. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:23 PM
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December 20, 2004
Inexperience
Permalink I didn't realize how void of veterans the Rockies were going to be in 2005. Now it's youth's turn with the Colorado Rockies. The problem is they they're not that young. Closser and Atkins will have a seasonal age of 25 in 2005, while Barmes and Hawpe will be 26. As I've said before, old rookies do not impress me. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM
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November 14, 2004
Breaking Up is Hard to Do
Permalink Nick Canepa is concerned about the Padres trading Phil Nevin, and asks an interesting question:
To answer this, one has to understand the two separate tasks the Padres have tried to achieve. The first was to establish the team in the new ballpark. This was a rousing success. San Diego combined a new home with a winning team to bring over 37,000 fans per game to PETCO park. To do this, Tower traded youth (Bay, Perez) for a solid veteran (Giles). This, however, was a short term solution. What I suspect, now that the Padres have established their fan base in the new park, is that they will act more like the Oakland Athletics. They'll let expensive, older players go and concentrate on building a winner from good young players. So you trade Phil Nevin because he's in his mid-thirties and he's injury prone. You consider letting Giles go. He's also in his mid-30's, and likely in the decline phase of his career. Giles especially would bring some talent, as he doesn't have the injury baggage of Nevin. I don't think this is breaking up an 87-win team. This will be, piece by piece, turning an 87-win team into a 95 win team that will make the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM
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October 14, 2004
Easy Outs
Permalink I've taken some criticism from St. Louis fans for my depth vs. explosiveness comment in yesterday's NLCS preview, and rightly so. I didn't explain my position well enough, and in looking at the statement again, I glossed over the stats that led to my feelings. So let me post what I looked at to make that statement. Here are the Astros and Cardinals aggregate number by lineup slot this year.
Houston
AVG OBP SLG
Batting #1 .283 .342 .462
Batting #2 .299 .368 .474
Batting #3 .260 .368 .485
Batting #4 .297 .385 .514
Batting #5 .274 .383 .514
Batting #6 .292 .344 .508
Batting #7 .236 .287 .337
Batting #8 .251 .311 .347
Batting #9 .194 .266 .251
St. Louis
AVG OBP SLG
Batting #1 .293 .335 .377
Batting #2 .279 .350 .473
Batting #3 .324 .407 .635
Batting #4 .286 .402 .543
Batting #5 .327 .412 .628
Batting #6 .263 .311 .400
Batting #7 .270 .318 .463
Batting #8 .249 .304 .347
Batting #9 .200 .236 .263
When I look at the bottom of the Cardinals lineup, I see nothing there, and despite a good year for him, Tony Womack does nothing for me at the top of the Cardinals order. As for more depth for Houston, I think it's clear from this that they do a good job of getting on base in each of the first six positions. They also do a good job of getting on base in the 9th slot, where they have the best OBA in the NL. That's usually because you have good pinch hitters, which is another sign of depth (Houston pinch hitters had a .366 OBA in 2004). So that's my reasoning. The Cardinals have a number of easy outs in the their lineup (people who don't get on base). It doesn't matter. The Cardinals could have the worst offensive player at each position around their big four and they'd be great. This team isn't the 1998 Yankees, but they don't have to be. Bunching 4 players this good in the lineup is going to generate a lot of runs. Cardinals fans should be happy with what they have, four superstars, a bullpen, and decent starters. Don't try to make the team more than it is. You're probably going to win the series with this talent. Posted by StatsGuru at 12:38 PM
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September 25, 2004
Pitching In Place
Permalink It's a start against the Mets, so keep it in perspective, but Mark Prior looks pretty good. He went 7 2/3 innings today, allowing no runs, four hits and two walks. He struck out five, not high, but not bad. He threw 71 of his 109 pitches for strikes. A healthy, strike throwing Prior in the playoffs will be a big plus for the Cubs. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:01 PM
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September 21, 2004
Northern Gloating
Permalink Batgirl is very happy about the Twins clinching:
But she doesn't have any kind words for the White Sox:
This year's Twins team is a great example of the relative unimportance of batting average. Look at a comparison of the Twins offense and their opponents:
The Twins were out-hit by their opponents. But the Twins overall put more runners on base, and supplied more power to drive those runners home. And that led to their nice run differential. How will they do in the playoffs? They have the weakest offense of any of the playoff contenders but they have the best pitching. What's interesting is that they do have two different staffs to throw at the competition; the starters don't walk many but do give up HR. The relievers walk more batters, but don't give up the long ball. (Strengths covering up weaknesses.) So the right way to approach the Twins is to swing for the fences early, and be selective late. This also dovetails with the bullpen being better than the starters; in most games, you want to be selective with the starter, run his pitch count up, and get into the weak middle relief. Frankly, I don't see it on this team. The three J's have been great all year; Joe, Juan and J.C. all have excellent strikeout rates and have allowed only 8 HR in 210 innings. So any team facing the Twins should be prepared to take any phat pitch out of the ballpark. Work on driving the ball a long way, and hope you can win some 3-2 ball games. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM
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September 11, 2004
Trade Evaluation
Permalink Joe Sheehan has an excellent column on the Red Sox improvement. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:50 PM
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September 08, 2004
Long and Short
Permalink Adam Villani raises this question in regards to the previous post:
I don't believe there is a single answer to this question, however, I do believe all answers have to do with depth and diversity of talent. For example, the Braves of the last 14 seasons have had very good starting lineups, but usually have lacked a bench or a solid bullpen. So if they go up against a team that matches up well against their starting lineup, there's not a lot of tinkering they can do. And if you can knock a starter out early, you can get to the weaker pitchers in the bullpen. The Braves have lacked depth of talent. The Oakland Athletics of the 1988-1990 run were the best team in baseball over those three years, but only won 1 World Series. The A's were a high OBA, low BA team; they walked a lot and hit home runs (much like the Orioles of 1969-1971). When Oakland faced good pitching staffs in 1988 and 1990, they didn't draw walks. Reduced to their low batting averages, they were handily beaten. Oakland lacked a diversity of talent. They had great strengths that hid a weakness, but if a team could exploit that weakness, the A's were finished. Compare this to the Yankees of the 1996-2000 era, who got on base, hit for average, hit for power, had a great bench and a great bullpen. The Yankees were so deep that they could afford to sit Jorge Posada and let Girardi guide the pitching staff. There was very little you could try against the Yankees that they couldn't counter. Still I wouldn't complain about a team built for long term winning. The more you reach the playoffs, the more likely you are to win the series by chance if nothing else, or find a series of teams that your strengths work well against. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM
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September 07, 2004
Garner's Offense
Permalink Phil Garner was hired during the all-star break, making that split a convient way to analyse the Astros. The Houston offense has greatly improved, while the pitching and defense remained about the same. The team's ERA is up to 4.44 vs. 4.38 in the first half. However, they are scoring 5.4 runs a game since Phil took over, vs. 5.0 under Jimy Williams. One big reason was simply replacing Hidalgo with Beltran. Coming into today, Beltran had a .991 OPS for Houston, vs. .721 for Hidalgo. Bagwell and Ensberg are also greatly improved in the 2nd half. Does Garner get credit for this improvement? Has Bagwell just healed some? Did Ensberg just have a bad first half? Does anyone know if Garner has specificially done anything to motivate Bagwell and Ensberg, or was Phil just lucky to get Beltran for a full 1/2 season and Bagwell Ensberg's improvement? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM
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September 06, 2004
Mariner Mess
Permalink Of all the poor moves the Mariners made (or didn't make) in tearing down this team, trading Carlos Guillen to the Tigers. The Hardball Times takes a look at the tight AL MVP race, and Carlos is right in the middle of it. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:22 PM
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September 01, 2004
Astro-Numerical
Permalink Jeff Kent just hit a grand slam in the Astros-Reds game to give Houston a 9-3 lead. It's Kent's third HR in the last two games. The Astros are just killing the Reds, having outscored them 28-6 in the three game series so far, hitting 10 HR while allowing just three. If Houston can hold on to this lead they will temporarily be 2 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race. Update: Kent is up again with the bases loaded. Update: Kent strikes out this time. He looked like he was swinging for a second slam. Update: The Astros win 9-3. They have 28 games left, but only 9 of those are against good teams. They have six with the Cardinals and three with the Giants. The rest are against some of the worst teams in the NL; Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Colorado. Unfortunately for the Astros, the Cubs have just as easy a schedule, with only 9 tough games, six vs. the Marlins and three vs. the Braves. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM
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August 19, 2004
The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.
Permalink Okay, Twain added the "greatly" later. But the Twins are still taking him up on the quote. Since Sunday morning they've gone from a team about to collaspe to the surging Indians to a more comfortable 4 1/2 game lead. And they've done it by shutting down the Yankees, while the Indians hit Texas when the Rangers found some new pitching and recovered hitting. Both Johan Santana and Joe Nathan helped their Cy Young cases last night. Santana walked 1 in seven innings against a patient team. The Twins have only walked four Yankees total in the two games. Nathan struck out 2 in his scoreless inning of work, and has lowered his ERA to 0.82. He's now struck out 66 in 54 2/3 innings. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM
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August 18, 2004
Bronx Thoughts
Permalink Dr. Manhattan at Blissful Knowledge gives a very detailed analysis of the Yankees season so far, giving a good view of the strengths and weaknesses of this team. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 AM
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Another Blast from the Past
Permalink The Baseball Crank looks does a study of the 1994 Expos. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM
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August 12, 2004
More Indians
Permalink Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus takes an indepth look at the Cleveland Indians. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM
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Here Come the Indians
Permalink Cleveland is now just three games back of the Twins in the AL Central. They are 18-10 since the All-Star break, the best record in the American League. They've improved their ERA a little, from 4.91 before the break to 4.72 now. But couple that with scoring over 7 runs a game, and you have a powerhouse. I'm impressed with Mark Shapiro's prediction, and I'd love to see him make a pitching move to put this team over the top. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 AM
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August 09, 2004
Who Woke Up the Orioles?
Permalink The Orioles just completed a four-game sweep of the Texas Rangers and won their 7th game in a row. Today's 7-3 victory has been typical of the streak, in which they've outscored their opponents 50-24. They've caught the Devil Rays, and with a Tampa Bay loss tonight, would be in third place by themselves. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:31 PM
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Season Review
Permalink Blissful Knowledge offers a look at the AL after 2/3 of a season. I love his bit on Texas.
If Texas had not made the A-Rod deal, they'd be a better team. Rodriguez has earned 20 win shares through August 1. Soriano has earned 10. That's three games. With A-Rod, Texas would likely be leading Oakland by 1 1/2 games, rather than trailing by that margin. While this deal might be better for the future, in that it frees up a little money, I don't see any moves the Rangers made after the trade that they couldn't have made with A-Rod on the team. Correction: Link added. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM
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July 30, 2004
Ranger Danger
Permalink The Texas Rangers had the chance to put some distance between themselves and their division rivals, and so far have failed to do so. They started a 12-game stretch against Anaheim and Oakland on 7/21. So far, they are 3-6, and the A's have regained first place after beating Texas 7-6 last night. The Ranges have scored 28 runs in those nine game while allowing 43. They did not pick an opportune moment to go into a hitting slump. Meanwhile, the A's offense appears to be in full Moneyball mode. Since the All-Star break they are 10-5; their batting average is down two points, but their OBA and slugging are up about 20 points each. Funny, though, their runs per game really haven't changed. The boost has come from an ERA that's down 0.8 runs. But the process is right and we're looking at another strong 2nd half from Oakland. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM
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July 29, 2004
Power, but No Punch
Permalink The White Sox lost their fifth game in a row tonight, falling 3-2 to the Detroit Tigers. They've only scored 13 runs in that stretch. Amazingly, they've hit 7 HR to help score those 13 runs. It seems Thomas and Ordonez were also setting the table. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM
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Wild Padres
Permalink One of the teams I'm quietly rooting for this year is the San Diego Padres. Although he's not usually recognized as one, Kevin Towers is a Moneyball GM. If you take them out of PETCO (which so far seems to be a pitcher's park), the Padres have the best road OBA in the NL (.347). Their slugging on the road is okay, 7th. The pitchers strikes out twice as many as they walk (their pitchers have walked the 2nd fewest batters in the NL). In looking at last night's starting lineup, there not a bad OBA in the bunch. They're sitting atop the wild card race this morning, and very much in the NL West chase. If SD, LA, Oakland, NYY and Boston all make the playoffs, you'll have five out of eight teams playing Moneyball. That's pretty good. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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July 26, 2004
Going Out in Style
Permalink Looks like the Expos are trying to end their stay in Montreal with a bang. They've won four in a row, and are beating up on the Mets tonight 10-4 as they bat in the bottom of the fourth. They've already earned their way on base 10 times by hits and six times by walks. Patterson's given up three to the Mets, but he could give up two or three more at this rate and still win the game. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 PM
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Road Triple Frown
Permalink The Diamondbacks are in a tailspin, having won only two game since Al Pedrique took over as manager. The Arizona offense is just terrible. They've scored only 57 runs in their last 20 games over a stretch in which they are 2 for 18. To see just how bad the Arizona offense is, look at their road numbers. They have the lowest BA (.231), OBA (.296) and slugging percentage (.373) in NL away from home. Their home numbers rank in the middle of the NL, which is also a sign of trouble. Good hitters playing in that park should be near the top of the league in offense. The DBacks have won only 31 games this year. They are about to lose Luis Gonzalez for the season. They may trade Randy Johnson. Somehow, it's looking like it would be a miracle for Pedrique to get this team 50 wins. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM
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July 22, 2004
Lack of Leadership
Permalink James at SoxBlog looks at the leadership capabilities of the Red Sox big three and finds them lacking. I'm not a big one on leadership making that much of a difference, but the comments of Ken Baumgartner are worth considering:
According to the post, Manny, Nomar and Pedro are acting like they don't care that much. I don't need players to be rah-rah guys (althought that's nice), but I do need them to care about winning and losing. They're setting a bad example. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM
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July 21, 2004
Dodger Thoughts
Permalink Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts has solicited comments from around the baseball blogosphere on his beloved team. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM
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July 13, 2004
Western Flip
Permalink Before the season started, I tried to do an analysis of each team using their core players (projected starting 9, starting rotation and closer) win shares. You can see the AL West here. This analysis had Seattle with the best core of players and Texas with the poorest. What happened? The Hardball Times has win shares calculated through July 5th, which is just about the half-way point of the season. What I've found is that in Texas, young players improved, and when the projected core failed, players filled in well. In Seattle, there was a total core failure, and no one stepped in to take up the slack. Let's look at Texas first. There's no surprise that Michael Young and Hank Blalock have been great. Young put up 21 win shares in 2003, and halfway through this season he's at 16. Blalock has 15 already this year, after 17 last year. Teixeira, Mench, Cordero and Nix are all ahead of the win share paces of last year. Kenny Rogers is probably the biggest surprise of all, posting 11 win shares last year, and 10 through the first half of 2003. One disappointment is Soriano. He had 27 win shares last year, only 9 so far in 2004. The core, if they had performed like last year, would have put up 132 wins shares; they've already posted 87. Texas has five non-core players who have also contributed a great deal; Barajs, Drese, Almanzar, Matthews and Delluci have added 29 win shares. That's almost 10 wins from players not expected to be in the everyday lineup. Seattle is a different story. Only two players are exceeding where they should be based on last year; Dan Wilson (7 in 2003, 6 in 2004) and the traded Freddy Garica (8 in 2003, 8 in 2004 for the Mariners). Only Eddie Guardado is close to half of last year's win shares (15 to 8). Most core players from the Mariners are at 1/3 to 1/4 of last year's totals over the first half of this season. Overall the Mariners core produced 75 win shares last year; this year, only 26 so far. And unlike Texas, there's no one who has stepped in. The most win shares a non-core player has added to the team is 4. The Mariners hitters got old fast, and they had nothing in reserve when the team went down the tubes. Texas deserves credit for recognizing young talent that would improve, and Seattle deserves much criticism for too much old talent, and not being prepared for the decline. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM
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July 11, 2004
Royal Regression
Permalink If you're wondering why the Royals are doing so badly this year, a look at today's boxscore will give you a clue. They have four starters with OBA's under .300. The team came into today with an OBA of .314 the lowest in the AL by 10 points. Yes, superstars are expensive, but can't they at least find players capable of getting on base at a .330 clip? Posted by StatsGuru at 02:55 PM
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July 07, 2004
Pale Comparison
Permalink What happened to the White Sox offense? Shutout 9-0 tonight, they lost their fifth in a row. They have not scored more than 2 runs in their last six games, accumulating no more than six hits in any of those contests. Instead of building on the momentum of their sweep of Minnesota, the White Sox have given the lead back to the Twins with their lackluster offensive performance. Just another example of why this is one of the unluckiest teams in the majors this year. Update: A commentor suggests this has something to do with Ordonez's injury. I don't buy it. First, Magglio missed most of June, and the White Sox had their best offensive month of the season. Secondly, they're averaging 5.5 runs per game; you don't do that with one great player. Sure, it hurts to lose someone like Ordonez, but why did it take a month to feel the effect? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM
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Half Black
Permalink Will Leitch at The Black Table has posted his yearly first half score card. Click on the photos to reach his favorite blog about each team! Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 AM
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June 29, 2004
Low Scoring Losses
Permalink After tearing up the AL West and NL Central, the Cardinals offense has been stymied by the Pittsburgh Pirates the last two nights. They've only allowed five runs; most days that would result in two wins. But they've only scored 1 themselves. It's a great chance for some other NL Central team to gain ground. Update: It won't be the Reds, who lose 7-5 to the Mets. Cliff Floyd had the big night for the New Yorkers with two home runs leading to four RBI. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM
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Taking a Base
Permalink I always enjoy looking at the Cleveland Indians boxscores, especially the ones that list OBA. Just look at those OBA's. Coco Crisp is rightly in the 9th slot with his low .300's, but the rest of the Indians all do a good job of getting on base. They need a pitcher or two, and I'm waiting to see if they trade for one. Would they be willing to take on Randy Johnson if they thought they could win the division? (See Shapiro's remarks earlier this year.) Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM
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June 28, 2004
Break Up the Cardinals
Permalink The Cardinals have jumped out to a five game lead in the NL Central with the help of an excellent record in interleague play. The Cardinals have gone 8-1 against the American League so far, while the Cubs have posted a 5-4 record and the Reds have only won 3 of 9. In between their sweeps of Oakland and Kansas City, the Cardinals managed to take 2 of three from both the Cubs and the Reds. They've won 11 of their last 13, outscoring their opponents almost 2:1 (81-43; average score 6.2-3.3). What appeared to be a close race not too long ago is starting to turn into a rout. Correction: The Cards are in the NL Central. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM
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June 21, 2004
Twin Wins
Permalink I find the Twins to be a very interesting team. Without the fanfare of the A's, they built a very strong farm system and developed a good team on the cheap. Like the A's, they were willing to let older players go (Ortiz, Pierzynski) to make room for younger talent. They are another nail in the coffin of the meme that you can't win without spending a lot of money. They're in first place again this year, and they've gotten there the hard way. They've been outscored by their opponents 326-322. They really should have a .500 record. They have done well in 1-run games, going 13-8. But the Chicago White Sox have been as unlucky as the Twins have been lucky. The pale hose should be at .585 and have a 5 1/2 game lead over the Twins. Yet, the White Sox are also doing well in 1-run games, going 13-7. What is true is that the Twins have not done well in games decided by five runs or more; they are 7-11. One of my rules of thumb in evaluating teams is that great teams win big. The Twins aren't a great team. But they are doing a good job of winning when they are able. And two hopeful signs; one is the return of Joe Mauer, who should take some pressure off Lew Ford, who has been the offense this year. The Twins are 10-6 since Joe's come off the DL. Mauer hasn't been getting on base, but he has supplied power, as 7 of his 10 hits have been for extra bases. The other sign of hope is Johan Santana, who has put together three great outings in a row. The Twins have achieved a record in excess of their play in this first half. The Twins underperformed offensively. With the return of Mauer, and with the return of the rest of the Twins to their 2003 performance (especially Meintkiewicz, Koskie and Jones), the Twins have a good chance of building on a lucky first half to take them to a division title. Correction: Edited for clarity. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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June 16, 2004
Rays of Light
Permalink The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are on a roll. They are now 9-3 in June after defeating the Padres last night. More importantly, they are no longer in last place, passing the Blue Jays for that honor. I'd like to get excited about this; I'd like to think that the young talent is developing and Piniella is pushing them in the right direction. But looking at the stats, I'm pessimistic. The Devil Rays biggest improvement in June is in their batter's on-base average. It's .352 in June, vs. .318 for the year. They are scoring 5.3 runs per game in June, vs. 4.2 for the year. So where is this increase coming from? Have Baldelli and Crawford learned to take a pitch? I'm afraid not. Jose Cruz Jr. is having a terrific June, posting a .462 OBA, and he's hitting for power. The real surprise, however, is the two players right behind him in OBA. Rey Sanchez has a .459 OBA in June. Julio Lugo is at .453. The only thing that keeps Rey Sanchez from being the worst offensive player in baseball is that Rey Ordonez is in the league. Lugo is a career .331 OBA player, and his yearly averages don't stray much from that mark. So you have the best offensive player on the team having a great month, and two poor offensive players on hot streaks. The two youngsters you'd like to see leading the team, Crawford and Baldelli, have played poorly (although Baldelli has shown some power). The other thing that disappoints me is that the streak is a lucky one. The Devil Rays have only outscored their opponents by 1 run in June; that usually translates to a .500 record. They are 5-1 in 1 & 2 run games in the month, and lost a big blowout 16-4. I have to conclude that their is really nothing different about the Devil Rays. They're on a hot streak (and Tampa Bay fans sure deserve that), but there's no sign of a real underlying change in the intrinsic ability of the team. If I were Lou Piniella, however, I'd show Crawford and Baldelli the .352 and 5.3 stats as evidence of why they need to get on base. Without that change from their youngsters, the Rays will once again be going nowhere fast. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM
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June 10, 2004
Taking Tigers
Permalink It's been an impressive turnaround for the Tigers offense this year. Last year, they posted a .300 OBA, and drew 433 walks in 162 games. They've drawn seven walks today through seven innings, and through 58 games entering this afternoon's action, they had drawn 201 walks. More importantl, their OBA is up to .351 as a team. They're sixth in the AL in OBA and 3rd in runs scored. Now, they just need their pitchers to stop allowing base on balls, and they'll be set to win. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:38 PM
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Filling In
Permalink The A's won 17-8 last night. That's 17 runs without Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Damon or Jason Giambi in the lineup. They are 7-1 since Chavez's injury, and are averaging 7.25 runs per game in that time. Once again, they are in first place in the AL West, and have the 2nd best record in the AL. They are once again doing it without a big payroll, but they are moving up. Right now, they rank 16th in the majors in total payroll. They were 29th in 2001, 28th in 2002, and 23rd in 2003. The interesting thing is that this idea that low salary teams can win is catching on. Look at the teams who trail the A's in salary; the Twins, the Marlins, the Reds and the Padres are all having very good seasons. And a number of other teams on that list look like they are developing into good teams. It's taken a long time, but teams have finally figured out that young talent is often as good as old talent, and a lot cheaper. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM
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June 03, 2004
Best of the Best
Permalink As I look at the standings this morning, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. Now given the team Cashman and Co. have assembled, this shouldn't be a surprise. But consider this:
Despite all that, they are tied with the Red Sox for the league lead in runs scored with 289. I find that a bit scary. Three of their best hitters in slumps, and they are at the top of the league in runs scored. And it looks like Jeter and Sheffield are starting to hit again. Giambi comes off the DL on Sunday. Matsui is playing more like he used to in Japan. A-Rod is A-Rod. Posada just keeps getting on base. If they can score like this with their offense not hitting on all cyliners, what are they going to be like when everything is in place? What if Mussina regains his form? It's doubtful that even the return of Nomar and Nixon will be enough to overcome this juggernaught. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM
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June 01, 2004
Brenly On the Block
Permalink The vultures are starting to circle around Bob Brenly:
One question I wished they had asked him was what makes him think Casey Daigle is a major league pitcher. They have given 10 starts to a pitcher who doesn't strike batters out, walks a ton of them, and gives up lots of HR. He has a 7.16 ERA and averages less than five innings per start. Maybe he's young and he needs more time in the minors. Maybe the DBacks farm system has no one else. But right now, he's almost an automatic loss being sent out every fifth day. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM
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May 29, 2004
Low Offense
Permalink Coming into today, the Twins are 9th in OBA and 9th in runs scored. Looking at the lineup, Lew Ford is great with an OBA over .400, but Jacque Jones is the only other player over .330. Some help should be on the way, as Joe Mauer has started his rehab assignment. He's already impressed the Rochester press. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:50 PM
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May 27, 2004
Bay Watch
Permalink The San Francisco Giants have climbed back into the race in the NL West. Although 3 games under .500, the Giants are in third place, 3 1/2 games out of first place. One big reason is that they now have the pitching staff in control. In April, it seemed like they couldn't get an out, allowing a 5.55 ERA. They've almost knocked two runs off that in May, down to 3.66. They has more than made up for a fall in offense of .5 runs during the same time period. With Bonds starting to hit again, that may change as well. Schmidt, Tomko and Hermanson have all pitched well for the starters this month, although Schmidt is the only one with a win for his efforts. Rodriguez and Walker have anchored the bullpen. Herges has saved 6 of 7, despite an ERA over 6.00. If the Giants can maintain this level of pitching, they can win the west with a small increase in offense. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM
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May 26, 2004
No Place Like Home
Permalink The Mets shutout of the Phillies last night got them on the back page of the NY Post and produced this optimistic story by Michael Morrissey. The Mets are turning out to be another nice surprise this season; not a great team, but good enough to be in the race. The thing that stands out for me about the Mets is how well they have pitched at home. They are posting a 3.28 ERA at Shea vs. 4.55 on the road. And while the offense has been poor, it's been more consistent, scoring 4.1 runs per game at home, 4.5 on the road. Right now, they are looking like a team that fits their ballpark well; if they can stay near .500 on the road, they can post a winning season. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM
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May 22, 2004
A's+
Permalink I had a feeling a couple of weeks ago that people were starting to write off the Athletics. That's a perilous tack to take. The A's have now won 11 of their last 14 and are leading the Royals 2-1 in the fifth today. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM
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May 16, 2004
Sneaking Into First
Permalink Remember what a poor start the Phillies had? They were 1-6 to start the season, and looked like they might be out of the race before it even started. But they've won seven of their last eight, and with the Marlins playing .500 ball over their last ten games, the Phillies start the day percentage points ahead of the Fish for Phirst place. Based on their expected winning percentage, they should have a three game lead on the division. Looks like the bad luck at the beginning of the season is starting to even out for them. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:17 PM
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May 14, 2004
Half a Team
Permalink The Indians are off to an early 4-1 lead, thanks in part to a three-run HR by Jody Gerut. There's nothing wrong with the Indians offense. With 179 runs scored, they are near the top of the league in runs scored. But with 200 allowed and a 5.35 ERA, they are near the bottom of the league in that category. But like the Texas Rangers of the last couple of years, you don't need to improve the pitching staff that much to get into contention. The Indians are six games out coming into tonight. Maybe we'll some young arms coming through the system as the year progresses; maybe they'll pick up the pitching in the off season. Either way, half the team is in place, and we'll see how the other half improves. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 PM
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May 11, 2004
Orioles Review
Permalink Soccer Dad takes a look at the Orioles so far, especially their strategy of using the best pitcher available in the bullpen, rather than attempting to get the best lefty-righty matchup. I like that strategy. Everytime you bring in a new pitcher you're rolling the dice. I the person on the mound is getting people out, let him continue to be successful. Yes, there are times where the matchup is important; some players just don't hit lefties or righties well. But having someone on the mound who can actually pitch seems more important to me than having someone who throws from the same side as the batter. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM
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May 10, 2004
Good Things Brewing
Permalink Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus reports that he's watching the Brewers more and more (link requires subscription). A good team that wins some games will do that for you. I also like the fact that his MLB Extra Innings viewing habits are similar to mine:
As soon as we can easily copy things from Tivo to disk drive, bloggers can create their own highlight reels! It just keeps getting better. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:30 PM
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April 25, 2004
They Left Their Bats, In San Francisco
Permalink How bad is the Giants offense? The had four hits against the Dodgers today, and one of them was by a relief pitcher! The have scored 71 runs in 19 games, or 3.7 runs per game. That's more like the 2003 Tigers than a team that won the division last year. Combine that with a pitching staff that allows HR to Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis and you have the recipie for a last place team. And I'm sorry, what's with Bonds coming out early in every blowout? Last I noticed, big comebacks weren't all that uncommon, and they are much more likely to see one if Bonds is in the lineup than if he's on the bench. When the Giants are on the plus side of a slugfest, Bonds can sit. But it looks bad when the team is losing. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM
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April 24, 2004
Collective Slump
Permalink I don't ever remember a team as talented as the Yankees going into such a collective slump. Posada is the only player hitting, and Torre still has him batting 6th. They still have their batting eyes; most of the regulars have OBA's 100 points above their batting averages. But their batting averages are so low that even with the walks they are not getting on base enough, and they are not generating enough power to drive those runners around. I suppose if they all come out of the slump at the same time, they might win 20 in a row. But right now, they just keep getting bombed in the Bronx. And to add to it today, Kevin Brown made errors on consecutive plays that led to an unearned run for the Red Sox, as Boston is up 2-0 in the 2nd. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM
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April 21, 2004
Super Off Season
Permalink The Tigers are up 9-2 on the Twins in the third inning. Three of their big acquisitions are paying off for them. Rodriguez, Guillen and White all have hits and RBI tonight. They all have batting averages over .300 and all have OBA's over .380. I started wondering last year if Dombrowski was as smart as I thought he was. Given the leeway to sign some players, Dave has done as good a job as any GM. It looks more and more like the Tigers will show a dramatic improvement in 2004. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM
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April 09, 2004
Worst To First
Permalink Along with the Tigers, the Brewers are also on top of their division after finishing in last place in 2003. One encouraging sign I'm seeing is that Milwaukee is wauking more. :-) Last year, they drew one walk for every 10.1 AB. So far, they are drawing a walk every 8.0 AB. They are hitting better (.290 Team BA) and getting on base more (.373 OBA). The sample is too small to be significant, but it's a trend worth watching. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM
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March 30, 2004
Motivation
Permalink I'm working at the home office of Baseball Information Solutions, preparing for the new season. I had lunch with Steve Moyer today. Steve is the president of the company and an old friend from my STATS, Inc. days. Steve has been traveling around spring training sites, speaking to clubs, trying to see if there is a way we can help them with their analysis. While he was speaking to a Tampa Bay official, the Japan trip came up in the conversation. This Devil Ray exec said to Steve that Tampa really wanted to win the two game series, because they didn't want to be the Washington Generals. In other words, Tampa felt it had been set up to lose to the Yankees in Japan. As Steve said, he doesn't put much stock in motivation in baseball. Over a season, there's just too many games. But in a situation like this, it can be a big factor. The Devil Rays didn't want to be the team that lost to the Yankees in Japan. And to their credit, they rose to the occasion. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM
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Yankee Lineup
Permalink A couple of interesting things about the Yankees lineup. Lofton is batting 9th, with Wilson 8th. I remember seeing a study using hidden Markov models that said you shouldn't bat your worst hitter ninth. I believe the rational is that although you are giving extra plate appearances to a poor hitter, you are setting up your number 3 hitter for more RBI. I wonder if the Yankees have seen that study. What I don't understand is Matsui batting 2nd. Although he was a great on-base guy in Japan, he really didn't do a great job of getting on base last year. Given his stats, he would be much more useful in an RBI slot. Of course, Matsui lines a picture perfect double into the right-center gap, and scores on an opposite field HR by Jason Giambi. Didn't look like the weight loss has hurt Giambi's strength any. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:23 AM
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March 28, 2004
Paneling
Permalink The Shea Hot Corner has a panel discussion with fellow Mets journalists, including newspaper reporters and fellow bloggers. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM
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March 25, 2004
Passionate Preview
Permalink Will Leitch at The Black Table has a team-by-team preview of the major leagues. He also links each preview to the best blog about each team, and suggests you'll get better coverage there than your local newspaper. Definitely worth the read. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM
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March 21, 2004
Improving Indians
Permalink According to the column by Gordon Edes, Mark Shapiro thinks the Indians may be back on top this year (emphasis added):
That's a pretty strong statement. Maybe he's trying to get the Indian faithful back to the ballpark. Or, like the Twins of 2002, a very good farm system is about to burst onto the major league scene. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM
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March 18, 2004
Old Folks Home
Permalink According to Dave Krieger, retirees aren't the only old people living in Phoenix. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM
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March 16, 2004
Ghosts and Heroes
Permalink Edward Cossette finds evidence of both at Bambino's Curse. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 AM
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March 06, 2004
Underrated Teams
Permalink Brian at Red Sox Nation is looking for historical underrated teams. He proposes the Blue Jays of the early 1990's as one. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:37 PM
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February 29, 2004
Yankees Preview
Permalink For you Yankees fans, Alex Belth has the first two parts of a four part roundtable discussion about the Yankees up at Bronx Banter. Here's part one. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM
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February 26, 2004
No Guarantee
Permalink Three out of four columnists at Baseball Outsider think Piniella's guarantee that the DRays won't finish in last place won't work out. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM
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February 19, 2004
Shark Bait
Permalink Brian at Redbird Nation quotes from one of my favorite movies, and not in a way that's complimentary of the Cardinals. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 PM
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February 17, 2004
I Remember When
Permalink Redbird Nation notes how the Cardinals are trying to have an old-timers day in spring training. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM
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February 09, 2004
Colorado Characters
Permalink After reading this article, I don't hold out much hope for the Colorado Rockies this year:
The character issue is an excuse for an organization that has not produced talent. They had one great player (Helton), two good players (Wilson and Walker), one okay player (Payton) and then nothing. All 21 of those people lack character? All I have to say is, "Christ, Sparky!" Correction: Sorry, I meant had instead of have in the last paragraph. I was talking about last year. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM
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AL East Win Shares
Permalink The Baseball Crank continues his research on established win share levels, today chronicling the AL East. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM
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February 03, 2004
Brave New World
Permalink John Smoltz discusses the new look Braves with Paul Newberry of the AP:
Smoltz also believes that if the Braves had won the NLDS, the cost cutting would not have happened:
I've learned not to count out the Braves. They're an excellent organization, both in the front office and on the field. This year will be a challenge, but they still have some excellent players, and a few great ones can take you a long way. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 AM
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February 02, 2004
Baseball In the Desert
Permalink John Gambadoro is ready for some baseball now that the Super Bowl is over, and he takes a look at how the Diamondbacks shape up at AZCentral. Posted by StatsGuru at 04:58 PM
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January 24, 2004
One for the Ages
Permalink Avkash at the raindrops has an interesting chart on plate appearances by age for teams last year. One thing, I disagree with his assumption that prime time for players is ages 26 to 34. Most of that time, the players are falling off from the top of their games at age 27. I would have prefered to see age ranges of
Then age group 2 would capture players at their peak. Given his data, however, I really like the way Toronto and Cleveland are set up. They have a lot of players moving into prime years together, which is just what you want from a rebuilding program. Also, with the Expos concentrated in ages 26-29, their offense isn't going to get any better than they are right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 06:40 PM
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January 21, 2004
Mets on the Move
Permalink Avkash at the raindrops has a nice summary of the Mets Winter Caravan kickoff. Piazza and Reyes both talk about their upcoming position moves. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 PM
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January 20, 2004
M & M
Permalink Aaron Gleeman is excited about the Twins twin rookies:
Earlier in the post, Aaron comments on how Terry Ryan is the un-Billy Beane. I'm not so sure. Terry may just keep it to himself. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM
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January 19, 2004
Mini Camp Evaluation
Permalink The Pittsburgh Pirates have finished their mini camp. Robert Dvorchak evaluates the team:
Dave Littlefield is trying to stay on plan, however:
He did a good job last year of adding those pieces late in the process, but the Pirates were never really competitive last year. I suspect they won't be competitive again this year. McClendon remains optimistic, however:
The right attitude. On paper the Pirates don't look like they can win. They probably can't. But luck plays a big part in baseball. A couple of hot veterans, a youngster exceeding expectations, and you at least have an exciting team in Pittsburgh. We'll see who Littlefield can acquire, and who he turns into more prospects as the season progresses. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 AM
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January 13, 2004
Chemistry Lesson
Permalink Edward Cossette has an interesting post on team chemistry, and is nice enough to include my opinion on the matter. However, I think Edward is changing the traditional view of team chemistry. After quoting me about wanting lots of Reggies and Bonds and Rickeys on my team, he says:
The problem is that writers define chemistry very narrowly; it's how well the players get along. That's it. If they walk into a club house, and the players are all smiling and chatty and golfing together, they have great chemistry. If they are growling at each other, they have lousy chemistry. What Edward is saying (I believe), is this narrow definition is wrong. I've with him on that. However, even if chemistry exists, I don't think it's very important. And we'll see how good the Red Sox chemistry is if they don't meet expectations this year. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM
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December 15, 2003
Devil of a Time
Permalink The Tampa Bay Devil Rays tried to put the best face on their weekend moves:
Why was this such a good weekend? Blum is not a good offensive player. Sanchez, over the last few years, has only been better than Rey Ordonez. (Someone should do a commerical for GM's: If you like Rey Ordonez, you'll The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are putting the best face they can on their moves over the weekendlove Rey Sanchez!) Cruz is a decent player, but he's not a franchise player. Hendrickson, as the DRays point out, was better on the road than he was in Skydome, but Tropicanna field isn't exactly a pitcher's park. All-in-all, I don't think they've made the team that much better. And when you consider that their four division opponents have all improved dramatically, the DRays are facing a situation next year where they could improve and still lose more games than they did in 2003. They need to do a lot more than pick up marginal players to keep up with the rest of the division. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM
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October 09, 2003
Not Your Father's Red Sox
Permalink That's the title of this Mike Vaccaro column. People are starting to realize that the makeup of this team is very different.
The big difference to me is that these guys like each other. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 AM
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October 07, 2003
And Now for Something Completely Different
Permalink Ray Ratto's piece on ESPN.com discusses the A's defeat and invokes Monty Pyton to do it:
He goes on to discuss a theme that I meant to publish yesterday, that this is more than bad luck:
Which brings me to the unsung hero of the Red Sox series; Nomar Garciaparra. Nomar hit .300 in the series, but it was a quiet .300, mostly because the people around him didn't do much. He didn't have an RBI but scored two runs. However, Nomar made two plays that showed the difference between the A's and the Red Sox in this series. When Byrnes and Varitek collided on Saturday night, Nomar realized the play had not been made, covered the plate, and yelled for Varitek to tag Byrnes. Last night, when Damon and and Jackson collided, Nomar took charge, picked up the ball, and threw out the batter trying to reach second to end the inning. Nomar's head was in the game, and it cost the A's. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM
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October 06, 2003
Hiding Weaknesses
Permalink One reason the Yankees were able to beat the Twins so easily is that they were able to hide one of their weaknesses; middle relief. The Twins did not put enough pressure, or take enough pitches, to tire the starters early. In every game, the starter went at least seven innings. Of the 36 innings pitched by the NY staff, only 3 1/3 were pitched by someone other than a starter or the closer. Oakland and Boston are much more selective clubs than the Twins. It will be more difficult for the Yankees to hide this weakness in the ALCS. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 AM
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Outfield Outs
Permalink What happened to the Braves? More to the point, what happened to the Braves offense? This was a team that scored over 900 runs in the regular season, and could manage only 15 in five game against the Cubs. I wrote about my surprise at the strength of the Atlanta offense back in May:
The problem over the last week was that their three big outfield guns didn't connect. Over the regular season, the Braves outfielders had a combined on-base + slugging (OPS) of .899, best in the majors and an outstanding number for any team. But in the division series, those outfielders had a combined OPS of .472. They hit .111 in the series, with a .250 OBA and a .222 slugging percentage. If there was going to be an offensive breakdown, I thought it would come from Furcal or Lopez or Castilla. But it was Sheffield and the Jones Boys who didn't get the job done, and Atlanta suffers another disappointing post-season. On a side note, I realized just how boring the Braves are to watch. Of the four LDS series, Braves-Cubs was the one I most easily could do without. There didn't seem to be any intensity from the Braves, with the possible exception of Smoltz on Saturday night. And that was from pain. There didn't even seem to be any desperation in the loss last night. Terence Moore agrees:
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 AM
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September 23, 2003
Tiger Perspective
Permalink Jay Hook, a pitcher for the 1962 Mets, has some advice for the 2003 Tigers.
Link via Priorities & Frivolities. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:37 PM
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Cardinals Demise
Permalink Brian at Redbird Nation disagrees with Bernie Miklasz on the demise of the Cardinals. Brian sees it as the organization not giving the front line players the supporting cast. Bernie blames La Russa for not motivating the players down the stretch. I have to side with Brian on this one. The Cardinals have four players with win shares over 20. But then you fall off to JD Drew with 12. The other teams in contention have their win shares much more evenly distributed. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 AM
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September 09, 2003
Dodger Offense
Permalink With four good offensive games in a row, the Dodgers have blown past the Detroit Tigers, and now are 29th rather than 30th in runs scored. Shawn Green has homered in three straight games. Before I get too excited about this, however, the last four games have been in Colorado and Arizona, two pretty good hitters parks. If they can sustain this after they return to the low-lands of the California coast, they have a good shot at the wild card. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 AM
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September 05, 2003
Sleeping in Seattle
Permalink Although the Seattle Mariners appeared to be breaking out of their team slump in the previous three games, they have been shut out two days in a row by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. (It's the third time in TB history that they posted back to back shutouts, but the first time they did it against the same team.) Over their last 15 games, the Mariners are 5-10, scoring just 4.1 runs a game. That includes three games in which they scored 32 runs. So in the 12 other games they've score 29 runs, less than three a game. There appears to be a big disconnect between three big guns and the rest of the team during this time (8/20 on):
Olerud and Sanchez are Guillen are getting on base, but no one is hitting for power, and with the above three in a slump, there's no one on to set up the bottom of the order. Suzuki and Boone have played a lot of games over the last three years (they rank 14th and 15th in baseball, respectively). I wonder if it's finally worn them down? Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 AM
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September 03, 2003
Building a Winner
Permalink An excellent post by Larry Mahnken on the sucess of the Yankees in building their great teams and how that can fall apart. He believes the A's have much more upside right now, and I have to agree with him. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM
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August 31, 2003
Record Season
Permalink The Braves have three HR today as they rout the Pirates 8-2 in the sixth. That gives them 206 HR on the year, tieing their third best total of all time. They are nine HR away from tieing the franchise record of 215 set in 1998. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:23 PM
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August 28, 2003
A's in First
Permalink Every year, it seems, the A's come alive in the 2nd half. There weren't many deals this year, but the A's are playing .600 ball since the All-Star break. That's fourth in the AL, but it's not too shabby. The offense, which seemed to lay dormant all year, has sprung to life recently. Through 8/15, the A's were scoring 4.52 runs per game. Since then, they are 9-2 and are scoring 6.91 runs per game. I believe what you are seeing is a team that was in a collective slump break out of it together. Miguel Tejada, for example, has an eight game hit streak in which he's batting .529 with six HR and 13 RBI. Remember, it's about process with the A's. The luck will usually even out over a season. And it's evening out in favor of their offense right now. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM
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August 27, 2003
A's Chances
Permalink Phillip Michaels of Idiots Write About Sports pens a post criticizing SI's John Donovan's assessment of the A's making the playoffs. From my own point of view, the A's offense was underperforming most of the year. Tejada isn't this bad a player. I think what is happening is that the A's offense is regressing to the mean, and in this case it means it's getting better. Tejada has a seven game hit streak with 10 RBI for example. So, if Mulder had to get injured, this was a good time for it, since the offense appears to be returning to normal. I think the A's, Mariners and Red Sox are very evenly matched in this race, and I can't really see calling any of them the favorite or underdog at this point. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:55 PM
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Tiger Offense
Permalink This should be a day of celebration in Detroit. The Tigers no longer have the worst offense in the majors.
The Tigers have fielded a minor league team. What's the Dodgers' excuse? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM
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August 24, 2003
Ten Run Outburts
Permalink The Athletics scored 17 runs today in their defeat of the Toronto Blue Jays. It was their 8 game scoring ten runs or more. That's low. Only the Tigers (who had their 2nd 10-run game today), the DRays and the Indians have scored 10 less often in the AL. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM
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August 20, 2003
Booing the Wrong Problem
Permalink Bambino's Curse is trying to keep a brave face in the wake of the Red Sox slump. Interestingly, he has a quoute from a Herald article about the intensity of the booing of Scott Williamson after giving up the HR. I would suggest the Red Sox are booing the wrong part of the team. The Sox who were running away with the team lead in runs scored, have score 42 runs in their last 12 games. That's 3 1/2 runs a game. That's Detroit Tiger territory. And the truth is you don't win many games scoring 3 1/2 runs unless you have the Dodgers pitching staff. So who should they be booing? How about the August slump of Manny Ramirez. Manny hit into two double plays last night, giving him 20 for the year; a new career high. Is he turning into Jim Rice? Manny has hit into a DP every 11 AB this month; he had only 1 DP the entire month of July. Compared to July, his BA is down 90 points, his OBA down 80 points and his slugging percentage is down 230 points! He's the nexus; he drives in the runners ahead of him and simultaneously sets the table for the players lower in the order. Manny had a similar slump in May. In May and August combined, the Red Sox are 21-24. The rest of the year they are 50-30. The Red Sox need to address Manny's slump. Maybe it's similar to the one Matsui went through earlier in the year when he was hitting everything on the ground. There's some evidence that this is true. Up through July, 38% of Manny's balls in play were grounders. This month, 42%. Manny needs to start hitting doubles with men on base, not into double plays. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM
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August 17, 2003
A Game of Adjustments
Permalink Successful ballplayers adjust their games to the situation. Batters will move around the plate to try to get at what they think a pitcher will throw. Pitchers will show hitters different series of pitches in different AB. Fielders will move their positions based on what pitch they see the catcher call. Yogi Berra would notice the change in the position of a batter's feet, and call for pitches accordingly. Pedro Martinez can change his grip mid-motion so he can throw two different changeups, and not even the catcher knows what's coming. Cal Ripken would sit in on the pitcher-catcher meetings so he could know how to best position himself for each batter. Constant adjustments. Managers have to do this also. The team which starts the season is going to look very different come July. For a new manager, the task is doubled, his you have to learn what your players can do, as well as adjust to their changes during the year. I think we are seeing two of the better managers making adjustments with new teams. The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Devil Rays had horrible Junes. The DRays were 5-21; the Rangers 7-20. But they have two managers that know what they are doing. Lou Piniella is a motivator. He said he'd dye his hair blonde if the Rays won three in a row. They both kept their side of the bargain. Since the start of the three game winning streak, Tampa Bay is 22-17. He's turned around the offense, taking them from 4.2 runs per game to 4.9 runs per game. Piniella has learned what his offense can do, figured out a lineup that works, and he has the team winning. Buck Showalter is a strategist. His forte is putting players into situations where they have the best chance of succeeding. The Rangers have made two huge adjustments since the end of June. They increased their scoring by almost a run per games 5.0 to 5.9) and they've lowered their ERA almost as much (from 6.12 to 5.30). Their ERA is even better in August, 4.77, and they are 11-4 in the month, giving them the best record in the majors. Nice to see two masters at work. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:00 PM
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August 14, 2003
No-hit, No-field
Permalink Bobby Higginson and Matt Roney have made errors for Detroit tonight, leading to two unearned runs. Detroit now has made 105 errors this year, most in the AL. When you can't score, you sure better be able to field, because lack of offense puts enough pressure on a pitching staff. It's no surprise that entering today, the Tigers 71 unearned runs allowed led the majors. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM
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Brave Boppers
Permalink The Braves have two more HR tonight, as Chipper Jones and Javy Lopez go deep. That gives the Braves 180 HR on the year; if they didn't hit any the rest of the season this team would rank 11th all-time among Braves teams, going all the way back to Boston. The Braves record for home runs is 215 by the 1998 team. Andres Galarraga led that team with 44, and Chipper Andruw and Javy all had totals in the 30's. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM
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August 12, 2003
Turning Point
Permalink At some point, the buzz had to happen. At some point, fans had to stop thinking that the Royals season was more than a pleasant bit of luck. After last night, I think the fans are there, and they are going to be there the rest of the year. Joe Posnanski of the KC Star certainly enjoyed the game, and he's starting to believe:
That's Tony Pena doing his best Sparky Anderson impersonation. It's all about heart and character. Maybe that's what luck is all about. The Royals have been outscored by their opponents by 1 run this year. That means they should be around .500 instead of nine games over. With luck, you can usually identify where the luck is happening; great records in close games, bad record in blowouts or winning late. The Royals haven't done anything there. They are five games over in 1 & 2 run games, but it's all in the two runs games (7 over). They have poor records holding leads late in the game or coming back late in the game. They do have the best BA with runners in scoring position, .308, but that just means their offense is lucky to be only 1 run behind their opponents. So I'm at a loss. I won't stop trying to figure out this team, but I'm more willing to accept Joe's assertion that you may not be able to figure them out. And in the meantime, I'll enjoy a low payroll team bucking the odds to stay in first place. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 AM
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August 07, 2003
Slugging Lineup
Permalink I'm just looking at the Astros lineup, and hitters 2-5 tonight all have slugging percentages over .500. I know the ball park has something to do with it. The Astros runs scored at home (5.2 per game) is better than 1/2 more than on the road (4.5). Still, an impressive group of hitters, and Jeff Kent is not in the lineup. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM
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July 31, 2003
DRays Success
Permalink The Devil Rays are leading Toronto 5-1 in the fifth. If they win, they'll be 14-12 this month, the first time they've been over .500 in a full month since August of 2000. It's the offense; they've been averaging five runs a game in July, while the pitching has an ERA of 5.58 through yesterday. Looks like a little luck was involved as well. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:13 PM
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July 30, 2003
White Washing
Permalink The White Sox are winning 10-4 in the 7th. It's the third straight game in which they've scored at least nine runs, and they've scored 100 now in their last 14 (including tonight). The fewest runs they've scored is 4 (twice) in that time frame. KC is feeling the heat. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM
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More on Red Sox Slugging
Permalink The Baseball Crank puts the Red Sox slugging percentage into historical perspective. Another way of looking at it is that the Red Sox are averaging 1.71 bases per hit. That also is near the top, but what differentiates this Red Sox team from the others in that top group is their high batting average. Most of the other teams were that hit as hard but not as often. The Red Sox are an unusual team in that as a group they hit for both average and power. There have been ten teams since 1900 that have averaged 1.71 bases per hit or better. The combined BA of those 10 teams is .270; the 1998 Mark McGwire Cardinals were the lowest at .258; the 1997 Mariners were highest at .280. The Red Sox are batting .295. It's a lethal combination; they have scored 43 more runs than any other team; they have scored 99 more runs than the NY Yankees; they have scored over 300 more runs than the Detorit Tigers! Not a bad job for a first year GM. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 AM
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July 29, 2003
Double
Permalink The Red Sox have two doubles so far tonight, giving them 274 on the season. The 1997 Red Sox and the 1930 Cardinals hold the record for doubles with 373. The 1930 Cardinals have the doubles rate at 2.42 per game. The Red Sox this year are doubling at a rate of 2.62 per game! If they keep this up for the rest of the year, they will obliterate the doubles record by about 50. They have eight players with over 20 doubles. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 PM
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July 26, 2003
Giant Steps
Permalink I don't write about the Giants enough, becuase they are usually playing when I'm asleep. :-) But John Perricone has them covered at Only Baseball Matters. He's downright giddy about their lead in the NL West! Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM
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July 20, 2003
Stewart Trade
Permalink While Toronto trading Shannon Stewart certainly had a lot to do with saving money, it also, I believe, had something to do with the fact that the Blue Jays played extremely well when Stewart was on the DL. During the 21 games Stewart missed, the Blue Jays went 14-7 and outscored their opponents 140-106. It was clear that Stewart was not needed for the health of the Blue Jays lineup. Kielty, talentwise, probably isn't that different from Stewart, so why didn't the Twins just put him in the leadoff spot? My guess is they wanted speed there, and Stewart gave them that. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM
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July 10, 2003
Gettin' On
Permalink With Johnny Damon on the bench with an injury, the lowest OBA in the Red Sox lineup tonight is Todd Walker, who is at .338 after an 0 for 2 so far. The AL average is .335. That gives the Red Sox 9 out of 9 over the league average in OBA. Meanwhile, the team whose GM lives by OBA, the Oakland A's, but out a lineup where six of the players were below the league average in OBA. I'm waiting for a house cleaning in Oakland around the end of July. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM
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More on Reds
Permalink John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquier wonders if Boone will be fired.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM
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July 08, 2003
Why the Yankees Win
Permalink I found this link through today's Bambino's Curse:
I wonder what John Henry did after the game yesterday? Did he break some chairs? Did he threaten to fire the manager? Did he question the heart of his players? Probably not. Steinbrenner wants to win more than anything. He hates to lose. Maybe that's what the Red Sox need. They don't need a desire to win, but a hatred of losing. Cossette summed it up well last year:
The Red Sox don't hate to lose. Maybe someone up top should start breaking some chairs. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 AM
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July 07, 2003
Marlin Power
Permalink Although they are losing 6-3, the Marlins have added two HR tonight, bringing their season total to 99 in 90 games. The Marlins, in their history have had only 1 season when they had more than 1 HR per game. In 2001 they hit 166 HR in 162 games. Their .439 team slugging percentage this year is easily the best the franchise has ever posted. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM
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Twin Falls
Permalink Bradly Bettin is wondering what's happening with the Twins:
The Twins were 38-28 through games of June 14th. Since then, they've gone 6-15 and have fallen out of first place. However, it hasn't been the fault of the offense. Their batting average is higher, and the Twins runs per game is the same. The difference is the staff's ERA has gone up over 2 runs, from 4.10 to 6.16 Both the staters and relievers have been poor; the staters have put up a 6.83 ERA, while the relievers have chipped in with a 5.11 ERA. It's been all about the pitching. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM
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July 03, 2003
Solo Shots
Permalink The Red Sox lost 6-5 tonight in 10 innings. Despite the 5 runs, the Red Sox were 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position. They scored on four HR, three of them solo shots. This season, the Red Sox have now hit 106 HR, but only 41 have been with runners on. That's 38.7%, the third lowest percentage in the American League. First is the Yankees, who have hit 61 of their 123 HR with men on, 49.6%. In second place are the Devil Rays, and their only HR of the night was Al Martin's two run shot. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM
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July 02, 2003
What are the Yankees
Permalink I think a lot of people would agree with this description of the Yankees, but not for the same reason. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 AM
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June 27, 2003
DBacks Streak
Permalink The Diamondbacks have now won 9 in a row, with a 8-3 victory over the Tigers. Usually, when teams have long winning streaks, they are dominating the competition. But this is only the second game of the streak where the DBacks have won by more than 2 runs! It's been a bit of a lucky streak, but it's gotten them back in the NL West race. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM
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June 26, 2003
Cleveland Farm System
Permalink Ben Jacobs of Univeral Baseball Blog writes:
Knowing this, I would change my mind and not trade Milton Bradley. Thanks for the info, Ben! Posted by StatsGuru at 12:58 PM
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June 23, 2003
Blue Jays Offense
Permalink Ben Jacobs over at Univeral Baseball Blog took my comment about the Blue Jays offense being better than it was in '92-'93 and broke it down. This is what I love about the internet. You throw out an idea and people run with them. Thanks, Ben! Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM
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June 21, 2003
Blue Jay Way
Permalink A few weeks ago, while my mother was in the hospital, I got to spend a lot of time with my dad, listening to Yankee games (since he doesn't get them on basic cable). During that time, Toronto kept winning. At one point, my dad said to me, "The Blue Jays are going to beat them both (Yankees and Red Sox)." I'm starting to believe my dad may be right. The Jays are currently up 5-1 on the Expos in the 6th inning; if they win the game they will be one game ahead of the Red Sox and 1 game behind the Yankees. The question for me is, does Ricciardi have the same mid-season trading accumen as his good friend, Billy Bean? If Ricciardi can pick up a cheap pitcher to help them out, this team will win. Take a look at this boxscore; there isn't a bad OBA among the starters; there isn't a bad slugging percentage among the starters. Even the SS and 2B have slugging percentage above .400. This is exactly the kind of offense that Billy Beane tries to create. This may very well be a better offensive team than the back-to-back WS champions. I can't wait to see how the Blue Jays play out over the full season. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 PM
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June 19, 2003
Olerud and the Mets
Permalink The fourth installment of this discussion is here. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM
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June 17, 2003
Olerud and the Mets
Permalink Eric McErlain and Peter White are having a discussion of how John Olerud's move to Seattle hurt the Mets. Start with Eric's first post, then check out Peter's response and finish with Eric's rebuttal. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM
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Twins-Royals
Permalink Ben Jacobs has a good player-by-player comparison of the Twins and Royals at the Universal Baseball Blog. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM
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June 14, 2003
Dodger Runs
Permalink The Dodgers have scored the fewest runs in the National League, 233. However, they have also allowed the fewest, 208. Now one of my rules of thumb has been that if you are great on one side of the ball, you have to be at least mediocre on the other side to win. And yet, the Dodgers are ten games over .500, being extreme on both offense and defense. Is it luck? Not much. If you use the Pythagorean formula, you find the Dodgers should have won 36 instead of 38 games. And that's the clue. If you look at the Pythagorean formula for calculating winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: f(x) = r2/(r2 + (r+x)2) Where r is the team's runs scored and x is the difference between runs scored and runs allowed. The function is quadratic in x, meaning that a parabola describes the function. The shape of the parabola is controlled by r. The smaller r is, the narrower the parabola will be. What does that mean? It means that x has a bigger effect the smaller r is. So, if you are scoring three runs a game, just allowing a little less than three runs will give you a decent winning percentage. But if you are scoring five runs a game, then allowing a little less than five a game is still going to leave you around .500. So let me modify my rule of thumb. If you are leading the league in scoring, you have to be decent in pitching to win. But if you are leading the league in fewest runs allowed, your offense only has to be a little bit better to win. Correction: Jed Roberts points out to me that since the quadratic term is in the denominator, the curve will be bell shaped, but basic analysis still holds. Posted by StatsGuru at 03:43 PM
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June 12, 2003
What a Yankee Fan Thinks
Permalink Steve Bonner writes:
In my opinion, you should not give up on the Yankees. There are still a number of very good players on this team, and the collective slump could turn into a collective hot streak quickly. However, as I was just driving back from lunch listening to the game, Matsui made a bad play in CF where, with a man on third and less than two out, he caught a ball and threw to Jeter rather than to the plate, allowing a run to score. When Matsui, who is one of the most fundamentally good ballplayers I have seen, starts making mental mistakes, something is really wrong. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:27 PM
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June 09, 2003
Depth
Permalink Edward Cossette is worried about the rash of injuries to the Red Sox pitching staff, and other rashes as well. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM
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June 02, 2003
Orioles Offense
Permalink In one of the worst predictions of the year, I speculated that the Orioles offense would be terrible. Instead, they are 6th in the AL in runs per game, and one of four AL East teams scoring over five runs a game. What went right? Jerry Hairston Jr. has turned into a good leadoff man. He's already drawn 21 walks this year after getting 34 all of last year (those are Fibinocci numbers, by the way. Although Gary Matthews Jr. flopped, Melvin Mora has been a great #2 hitter. His .455 OBA is over 100 points higher than his career OBA. While not supplying a lot of power, Jeff Conine is driving in runs from the 4th slot. He's hitting .310 with runners in scoring position, and the first three slots are getting on enough that he has people to drive in. Jay Gibbons in the fifth slot is similar to Conine. His slugging percentage is okay, but he's hitting well with men on base. Finally, the Orioles #9 hitters are among the best in the league. They have six HR which leads the AL, and are third in OBA at .322. So the first two batters have finally learned to get on base, and the middle of the order is getting the timely hits to drive them in. It will be interesting to see if Mora and Hairston's OBA hold up over the entire season. Update Rich Goldberg points out to me that Hairston is injured and Brian Roberts is playing well in his place. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:16 PM
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June 01, 2003
Third Base
Permalink I was just looking at the Giants box score, and I notice that Edgardo Alfonzo is playing more like his 2001 season than his 2002 season (or the rest of his career). Just wondering if there isn't a deal here that sends Vizquel to the Yankees and Ventura to the Giants. Are there prospects that the Giants would be willing to send to Cleveland? Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM
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May 23, 2003
Yankees Lineup
Permalink With Bernie Williams out of the lineup, Joe Torre made changes with which I don't agree. He moved Matsui into the 2nd spot, and Jeter to the 3rd slot. Matsui has been a disappointment this season, showing neither the power or selectivity that his Japanese stats suggest. He has a .318 OBA, one of the worst of the starting nine. I see better options. First, use this opportunity to move Soriano into the four hole where he belongs. Soriano's strength as a hitter is his power, and that's much better to have behind your on-base guys than in front of them. Then move Jeter to the leadoff spot. His combination of on-base and power is much more like a #1 hitter than a #3 hitter. Finally, move Ventura or Mondesi into the two hole. I like Ventura, because long term I think he'll have the better OBA. But Mondesi can run, and why not play the hot hand until he reverts to form? You could even leave the 1-2-3 as is and move Posada into the 4th slot. But moving Matsui 2nd when he hasn't proven he can get on base is not going to help the Yankees score runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:02 PM
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May 22, 2003
Mets Mess
Permalink It's interesting that since Mike Piazza has been out of the lineup, the Mets are 4-1, with two wins vs. SF and 2 out of 3 vs. Philadelphia. The offense has been good, scoring 33 runs in the five games. Jayson Phillips is 9 for 15 during this streak. Mo must be wondering if he's going to have a job when he comes back. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM
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May 21, 2003
Brewing Power
Permalink Despite losing Jose Hernandez, who had the 2nd highest total of HR on the Brewers in 2002, Milwaukee is 3rd in the NL in HR with 60 after a 4-HR game today. Jenkins hit three to exceed his 2002 total of 10. They were 15th in HR last in the NL with 139. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM
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Brave New World
Permalink Sorry about the lame title, but I have a horrible cold and can't think all that straight (or creatively) at the moment. However, it is fitting. Look at this table:
Given the Braves moves in the off-season, a one-run increase in ERA was not an unreasonable projection. But where is the offense coming from? If you look at the top eight players in AB on the Braves 2002 vs. 2003, six of them are the same. Probably the biggest change is Giles vs. Lockhart at 2B, but everyone on this team is hitting. Furcal's OBA is up 70, Castilla's is up 60 and Sheffield is up 35. The Jones boys are down, but not much. This is an incredible offense turnaround, given that the team didn't make many moves. Maybe the offense finally realized they didn't have a great pitching staff to carry them? We'll see if it lasts. I have my doubts about Castilla and Furcal, but if Giles is for real that gives them four great offensive players (Jones, Jones, Sheffield and Giles), and that's usually enough to score a bunch of runs. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM
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May 14, 2003
How 'Bout Those 'Spos?
Permalink The Expos swept the Giants in their three game series. It's interesting because the teams had identical OBA's vs. each other (.336) and nearly identical slugging percentages (.381 Expos, .386 Giants). Yet, the Expos outscored the Giants 16-10, or two runs a game. The Giants hit better with runners in scoring position (8 for 19 vs. 6 for 20 for the Expos). However, the Expos made their scoring position hits count for more, driving in 10 runs with their 6 hits, while the Giants only managed 6 runs with their 8 hits. The Expos now have a 3.5 game lead in the wild card race. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 PM
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May 13, 2003
1984
Permalink No, not the Orwell novel. It was the year the Tigers faced the Padres in the World Series. Today, those two teams are the worst in their leagues, and the Padres are fast approaching the Tigers' level. The Padres started out 7-7, but have been miserable since 4/16, posting a 5-19 record. Their runs per game is down from 4.5 to 3.4. Their ERA is up to 5.72 from 4.36. An interesting note on the offese, they hit only 8 HR in their first 14 games, but 23 in their last 24. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM
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May 10, 2003
Sneaking Up
Permalink On May 1st, in an article about the importance of April, Jayson Stark wrote the following:
Now, I agree with that 100%. Plenty of pennants are won in April. Some are even lost. But the Twins in a deep hole? No one told the Twins that. Since April 29:
Now, they are 6-0 vs. Tampa Bay in that time, but they are also 3-1 vs. Boston, including a win (and their only loss) vs. Pedro. Suddenly, they are 1 1/2 games out of first place, and the hole has been mostly filled in. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:30 PM
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May 04, 2003
Young Teams
Permalink In today's Reds Notebook, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer points out that the Reds offense is very young:
I like to measure offensive age with a weighted average based on plate appearance by non-pitchers. Someone who's old and plays half time should not count as much as someone who's old and playing all the time. By this measure, the Reds actually have the youngest offense in the majors:
And in case you are interested, here are the oldest teams:
Only the Mariners and Reds from these two lists are in the top five in their respective leagues in runs scored per game, and both are fifth. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 AM
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Sailing Away
Permalink Sam Ross Jr. of the Pittsburgh Tribune looks at why the Pirates are so good on the road and so bad at home. His answer is a lack of lefties on the Pirates:
It's a good theory. Jones is a bit negative about all this; however, if a team is doing well on the road, that's a very good sign. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM
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April 29, 2003
Royals for Real?
Permalink Since I'm going to see the Royals on the road twice this week, I thought I'd take a close look at the team. One way to get a good handle on a team is to look at their road statistics.
It looks to me that the Royals are a little better than 500 on the road, bases on their runs per game and ERA. But a the moment, their pitcher and hitters seem to have a great homefield advantage. So right now, the Royals are probably not as good as their overall record, but if they can maintain a large homefield advantage, they'll do very well this year. If you can play .500 on the road and 20 games over at home, you'll have a good shot at the playoffs. Posted by StatsGuru at 02:27 PM
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April 28, 2003
Looking for Signs
Permalink Jon Weisman doesn't use permalinks in his blog, Dodger Thoughts, but go there and scroll to the post titled Sign Waves. He has an excellent observation:
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM
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Cubs and Third Base
Permalink The Cub Reporter has a couple of post on Mark Bellhorn and what the Cubs should do about his poor hitting. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 AM
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Padres Review
Permalink Duck Snorts has a good review of the Padres series with the Reds. Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM
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April 20, 2003
Bay Bridge Series
Permalink Glenn Dickey of the SF Chronicle lays out what he thinks needs to be done by both the Giants and A's to make an all San Franciso Bay series possible. He believes the Giants great start will let them develop their rookie pitchers:
A big cushion does give you a lot of flexibility. Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM
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April 17, 2003
Low Scoring Teams
Permalink Coming into tonight, the Tigers were averaging 2.0 runs per game (26 runs in 13 games). They are being shut out through six innings. If that holds up, they will fall below 2 runs per game. Just how bad is that? The only team that was under 2.0 for a season was the 1884 Wilmington Quicksteps at 1.94. The scored 35 runs in 18 games. Since 1900, considering AL and NL teams, the lowest three scoring teams are:
The Tigers should have a turn back the clock day and wear the uniforms of 100 years ago. That's how their offense is playing. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM
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April 16, 2003
Giants Start
Permalink I was going to write about the Giants great start, but I don't have time right now, so go read Only Baseball Matters. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 AM
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April 15, 2003
Royal Winnings
Permalink Someone once said that what made the NY Times a great newspaper is that you can follow a story in it. They just don't hit you once and forget it. In that vein, here's the latest on the Royals start, from long time Royals fan Rob Neyer. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:47 PM
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April 14, 2003
Royal Research
Permalink Michael Weddell of Detroit has done some research on early season winning streaks:
A nice bit of research, Michael. I'm also going to try a simulation to see if I can get a handle on the difference between my independence assumption and the real p-value. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM
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Two Weeks In
Permalink MLB has played two full weeks now, and what I find interesting is that there is only one team which I find completely without a change. That's the Detroit Tigers. Their offense is non-existent. Detroit is being outscored on average by 3.6 runs. And I don't really see any reason for their offense getting better any time soon. This is different from Arizona, where they have had a good offense in the past, and they just need to get out of their collective slump. The other teams I think are close here are the Rangers and the Reds, simply because their pitching is so bad. In the case of the Rangers, there's no track record here to indicate it might get better any time soon. But at least the Rangers have won a few games. The Reds starters have been a disaster, and moving Danny Graves into the rotation has weakened the bullpen. Even without Griffey, they could have a good offense, but not probably not good enough to overcome their pitching problems. But the rest of the teams have enough positives that you can at least say, "With some lucky breaks, we have a chance." Stay tuned. Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM
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April 13, 2003
Continental Divide
Permalink With a 3-2 win over San Diego last night, the Rockies are now 7-4 in 2nd place in the NL West. The Rockies now have a 4.97 ERA, which would be tied for the team's best ERA of all time (1995). The imporant thing, however, is that the team is scoring over 6 runs a game. When you do that, you don't need a great ERA to win. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM
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April 07, 2003
Cub Reporter
Permalink The Cub Reporter takes the snow day to review the Cubs first week. Posted by StatsGuru at 05:45 PM
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April 01, 2003
Untouchables
Permalink Elliot Ness and the Twins at the Twins Geek. Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 AM
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March 30, 2003
Texas Wins!
Permalink A good opening game. The Texas offense was selective, the Ranger pitching threw strikes, and the defense was good. I think Glanville is going to help a lot in center. He made a nice running catch at the wall early in the game. Showalter is great at positioning fielders, and that should help also. Angels didn't play badly. They were getting balls in the air instead of up the middle. Lackey lacked control, but the game was not a big negative for them. Lots of action tomorrow, including Sosa going for 500 HR. Thanks for coming by tonight! Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM
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