Team Evaluation Archives

Evan Grant does a good job of promoting the games next week between Seattle and Texas:

A friendly community service reminder: The Rangers host Seattle for three games starting Monday. For those who can't land Stars tickets and want to see a fight, plenty of good seats are available in Arlington.

They could be three action-packed days.

Gabbard's leg is bruised, but the Rangers don't think the injury is serious. Sexson apologized for throwing his helmet at Gabbard, but I still think he should get a decent suspension out of the incident.

The frustration that led to the fight is more than just the hit batters in the game. Look at how the Mariners are hitting in May. In eight games, they've been held to two runs or less seven times, scoring just fourteen runs in total. As a team, they are hitting below the Mendoza line. They're hitting .137 with men in scoring position. They've only had three plate appearances with a man on third and less than two out! Their team OPS is .525! Take away Ichrio, and the rest of the team approaches the level of a National League pitcher.

It's a huge slump for a team that should really hit decently. What makes it worse is that they've been shutdown by New York and Texas, two teams that certainly had some pitching problems this season. Just to rub salt on the wound, they release Brad Wilkerson, who right now owns the highest OBA on the team. I'm not sure if the blame should go to the GM for putting the team together or the manger for not getting them to play up to their ability, but one of them should be on the hot seat right now.

Tom Krasovic pens a good article on the lack of speed among the players on the Padres. Alderson points out they didn't have much speed last year, but with people getting on base, no one really noticed.

Bill James in his 1980s Abstracts wrote that every strength covers a weakness. What's happened this season is the strength of getting on base disappeared, exposing the speed weakness. It's showing up on the base paths. The Padres made only nine stolen base attempts this season, fewest in the NL (they were successful seven times, however). The article leads you to believe it's showing up in the outfield, and while their Zone Rating is below average, they've made a good many plays out of the zone as well.

When a team goes into an offensive funk, speed helps make the most out of the limited scoring opportunities presented, and helps the pitching staff keep the score low. San Diego is in that situation now, and they don't have the speed dimension to on which to fall back.

The Oakland Athletics rank fourth in the American League in runs per game with a 4.74 mark. Their 2-1 win over the Orioles last night, however, both demonstrates the strengths and glaring weakness of this team. They picked up eight hits, four walks, and no extra base hits. So for the game, their batting average was .222, their OBA .300, and their slugging percentage .222. For the season, the line is .253/.339/.362. It's a low hit, low power, high walk offense. They've draw 145 walks, most in the AL, thirteen more than the second place Tigers.

This is the type of offense that's fairly easy to shut down, and you can see it in Garrett Olson's line. He went 6 1/3 innings, allowed four hits and just one walk and the Athletics picked up just one run. It was Johnson who walked three in 1 2/3 innings, issuing one to Frank Thomas in the tenth to put the winning run in scoring position.

Put the ball over the plate, and the Athletics are a mediocre offense. Try to fool them off the plate, and they'll take those pitches and walk you to death. This is exactly the kind of team that loses in the playoffs. They go up against a team that throws strikes, and their high OBA is reduced to their low batting average. Unlike the Athletics teams of the late 1980s, this squad doesn't even have power to fall back on. Simply put, to beat Oakland, throw strikes. They can't hit them.

DuckSnorts looks at the Padres run differential by inning to see where the team goes wrong. They're doing very poorly in the late innings compared to last season.

The Washington Nationals defeated the Pirates 5-2 today and are now 9-3 over their last 12 games. They put fifteen batters on base today via a hit, walk or hit by pitch. If you look at the batters over this time, you'll see they're loading the bases with runners. Six of their regulars have OBAs over .350 in this stretch, although they're not hitting for a lot of power. Still if a team keeps pushing men on base, they come around to score eventually. They scored 70 runs in their first 20 games, 50 in the last 12.

The Dodgers defeated the Rockies12-7 Saturday night to win their eighth game in a row and nine of their last ten. The offense, which showed signs of greatness earlier, came alive completely over the last ten games:

Dodgers Offense 2008

Dodgers Hitters	Through 4/22	4/23 On
Batting Average	.264	.322
On-base Average	.338	.413
Slugging Percentage	.407	.424
Runs per game	4.2	8.2

They've almost doubled their runs per game compared to the earlier time period. Notice that the increase in runs comes from doing a much better job of getting on base with plenty of singles. The team OBA over the last ten games is higher than the team's slugging percentage over the first 20 games, but slugging percentage hasn't gone up all that much.

Here are the Dodgers hitters before and after. The person who jumped the most is Juan Pierre.

Over the first 20 games he picked up eleven hits and one walk. Over the last ten (he's played seven) he's knocked out nine hits and drew five walks. With Andruw Jones the only Dodger not to take part in the offensive explosion, Pierre may be re-earning his place in centerfield.

Note that Martin, Kemp, and Kent all improved in this time period as well, with Furcal, Ethier and DeWitt maintaining their good performances. That means even if Pierre returns to his norms, this team should keep scoring runs.

The Yankees scored in the first inning today for the fourth straight game, taking a 1-0 lead on the Mariners. They've scored seven runs in those four first innings, five in the other 23 they've played.

Los Angeles defeats Florida 5-3 as Furcal, Pierre and Kemp combine to manufacture a run with walk, sacrifice and single in the top of the ninth. That broke a tie, and two errors by the Marlins led to an insurance run.

The Dodgers have won six in a row. They've scored 47 runs in that stretch, and twice they needed the runs as they've recorded wins of 8-7 and 7-6. The much maligned Pierre is sporting a .355 OBA after reaching three times today. It's amazing how having someone after your job makes you more productive.

The Cubs closed April a blow out of the Brewers, 19-5. Toni Ginnetti recaps what made this one of their best starts ever.

They cultivated an offense that leads the National League in hitting (.286) and ranked second in drawing walks.

One of the players that is making the Cubs more selective at the plate is Geovany Soto. While he's averaging nearly a strikeout per game, he's also drawn 15 walks for a .427 OBA and his two home runs last night bring his total to five on the season and his slugging percentage to .621. The team will trade the strikeouts for that kind of selectivity and power any day.

My latest column at SportingNews.com examines how the Rays defense is contributing to the improvement in their team ERA.

Jon Weisman notes that some people cite the Los Angeles lifestyle for the reason the Dodgers don't win any more.

I think it's because the Dodgers no longer burn out pitchers. The pitched Koufax and Drysdale as much as possible and they won, although both pitchers saw an early end to their careers. Don Sutton put up some big numbers in the early 1970s and the Dodgers won. Fernando Valenzuela? Orel Hershiser?

Give Penny and Lowe 260 innings each, and I bet the Dodgers do very well. Leaving your best pitchers on the mound as long as possible is a great strategy for winning now, but it is very short term.

The Giants defeated the Reds Friday night 3-1 in a well pitched game by both Harang and Sanchez. The Giants are now 7-6 in games in which they score between 1 and 3 runs. That's a pretty remarkable number. The Giants are averaging 3.1 runs per game. Given that the average NL team averages 4.5 runs per game, you'd expect the Giants to post a winning percentage around .322. Instead, due to the terrific pitching performances they've received, they're 11-13, in second place in the NL West. They're the only team with a winning record when they score between 1 and 3 runs:

Team	Wins	Losses
SF	7	6
MIN	4	5
COL	4	6
CHA	2	3
NYA	3	5
OAK	3	6
BAL	3	7
ATL	2	5
LAA	2	5
STL	2	6
KC	2	6
SD	3	10
CLE	2	7
HOU	2	7
WSH	2	7
PIT	2	8
LAD	2	8
CHN	2	8
FLA	1	4
BOS	1	5
PHI	1	6
NYN	1	6
MIL	1	7
TOR	1	9
TEX	1	10
CIN	1	12
ARI	0	2
SEA	0	5
TB	0	5
DET	0	7

Note that the Padres, who also have a poor offense and a great pitching staff don't do very well in these games. For the Giants it's 1968 all over again.

The Toronto Blue Jays lost for the ninth time in eleven games last night, blowing a late, two-run lead.

Scott Rolen, making a dramatic return from a finger injury that had sidelined him since spring training, delivered a two-run double in the top half of the eighth to put the Jays up 4-2 and seemingly in good shape to snap their four-game losing streak.

Then it all fell apart.

A.J. Burnett, who cruised on five hits through seven innings, gave up a pair of singles and a walk to serve up a run that made it 4-3 with one out in the eighth.

Jays manager John Gibbons yanked him in favour of reliever Scott Downs and he coaxed a groundball out of Ross Gload, a comebacker to the mound. Downs promptly scooped it up to start what should have been an inning-ending double play.

But shortstop David Eckstein fumbled the throw from Downs. Two runs scored and the Royals tacked on two more on David DeJesus' grounder that squeaked into right field with the infield drawn in.

The Jays are a bit dysfunctional this season. The bullpen's ERA is a very good 3.44, but they have a 1-6 record. That indicates bad timing. The offensive is a poor man's A's and Tigers from the early 1990s. Those teams didn't hit much for average, but drew a ton of walks and pounded the ball when they did make contact. The Blue Jays are drawing the walks, but their slugging percentage is a measly .369, twelfth in the AL. Maybe it wasn't the best time to let Frank Thomas go.

I wonder how long Ricciardi lasts. He talks a good game, but of all the GMs to come out of the Alderson/Beane school, he's done the worst job of execution. With the Rogers increasing payroll in recent years, he no longer has the excuse of money. He should be on the hot seat.

Jon Weisman notes things are getting a bit wacky for the Dodgers.

Look - I can put together more reasons not to worry about the marching band being stuck in a dead-end alley and the Dodgers tripping over the 10,000 marbles in the street, I really can, but you've probably heard enough of that from me for the past couple of weeks. These guys have been Faber College foulups without hardly any of the fun, and it's wearing most of them out, and it's wearing most of us out.

I wonder if Torre has Andruw Jones on double secret probation?

Update: That's supposed to be a delta in the title.

FishStripes notices the Marlins are feasting on first pitch strikes. It strikes me that this is something opponents should easily exploit.

Gordon Wittenmyer notices the Cubs are more selective at the plate this season.

With only a couple of additions to the lineup this April, the free-swinging, oft-missing Cubs, well, aren't anymore.

A team that struck out 1,000 or more times 10 of the last 12 seasons -- leading the National League three times in that span -- has morphed into a Sabermetrician's fantasy.

With Kosuke Fukudome seeing more pitches per at-bat than anybody in baseball and late-spring acquisition Reed Johnson earning his way into the lineup and producing a .417 on-base percentage, the Cubs are among the top teams in the major leagues in on-base percentage, scoring and hitting.

I'll also note the Cubs have only grounded into ten double plays this year, so they're not taking runners off base, either.

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their fifth game in a row, falling to the Chicago Cubs 13-6. That equaled the number of runs they scored in the previous four losses. They allowed thirteen runs for the second game in a row, and have been outscored in the five contests 48-12. The starters haven't given the team much of a chance as they've pitched 22 1/3 innings in the five games while allowing 27 runs, twenty five of them earned. They've only struck out ten while allowing 41 hits.

At the moment, it's looking like the new management isn't making much of a difference.

The Giants lifted their runs per game above 3.0 today with an 8-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. With 61 runs in 19 games, they'll keep that level even if they are shutout in their next contest. All nine Giants starters, including the pitcher picked up at least one hit.

The win makes the Giants to 8-11, a bit of a moral victory as they move 1/2 game ahead of the Dodgers into fourth place.

The Arizona Diamondbacks made Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-New a believer:

They are younger than the Padres, faster than the Padres, seemingly more talented than the Padres.

They have rising stars in center and right field, a young slugging third baseman described by scouts as "stupid strong" and a second baseman who is a Gold Glover and bats third in the lineup.

The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't without flaws -- one pitching injury could prove critical -- but they are a red storm rising east of San Diego. The Padres are among the teams eating their dust.

Tom noted the difference between the outfields of the two teams:

A key to San Diego's two defeats going into today's series finale is that Arizona's outfielders ran down balls that Padres outfielders such as Jim Edmonds and Paul McAnulty couldn't quite grab.

"They have three center fielders," Towers said.

...

In this series alone, Arizona's Young has denied the Padres four extra-base hits by running down flyballs. Three of them were hit by counterpart Edmonds, who isn't covering nearly as much ground.

It's a tough ballpark for pitchers. As a measure of that, consider the DBacks team ERA on the road is 1.94, and at home 3.75. Since 3.75 is a great number for a team over a season, it gives you an idea of just how good a pitching and defensive team Arizona assembled.

The Red Sox rallied for three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning tonight to defeat the Rangers 5-3. The Red Sox are saving their best for last this season. From the eighth inning on, the Red Sox batters are 47 for 135, a .348 batting average. They've also picked up 15 extra-base hits, including six home runs.

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon in a close game, 3-2. Despite the low score, the Cubs put eleven men on base via a hit or a walk. Although they only drew two base on balls this afternoon, they're doing very well in that category this season. With 64 walks in sixteen games the Cubs are averaging exactly four BB per contest. Last year they drew walks at a rate of 3.1 per game, and the previous two seasons (Dusty Baker) they were around 2.5! The last season a Cubs team averaged over four walks per game was in 1975. Coming into today, they posted a .266 BA, but with all the walks their OBA was an excellent .346.

Fukudome with twelve gets a lot of credit, but Soto drew two today and now stands at nine. Two relative new comers are making a big difference.

Brian Kamenetzky is very happy with the Angels start, given that both Lackey and Escobar are on the disabled list.

Richard Durrett lists the mental mistakes the Rangers made yesterday, and over the last few games. This is the type of play that reflects directly on the manager. Players go into slumps, players make a mistake from time-to-time, but when it all comes together like that it really looks like Washington doesn't have the team properly prepared.

Randy Wolf and the San Diego Padres shutout the Colorado Rockies Tuesday night 6-0. It was the eighth time this season Colorado was held to two runs or less, most in the majors:

Team	2 Runs or Less
Rockies	8
Giants	7
Padres	7
Tigers	6
Athletics	6

In 2007, Colorado was held to two runs or less 39 times, or 6.5 times per month. They're not at the bottom of the runs per game list, but they're getting close. Outside of Holliday and Helton, we're not seeing the combined OBA and power from the Rockies evident last season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks downed the Giants this afternoon 8-2. That raises their major league leading runs per game to 6.4. Last season, the pitching carried this team, but the youngsters on offense matured this year, and they are knocking the ball around the park. With Micah Owings doing another good job of demonstrating the irrelevance of spring training stats today, this team has a rotation to match their offense. In a league lacking a great team, they could run away in the race for best record in the league and home field advantage.

Bless You Boys wonders if the Tigers can get any worse. I'm always reminded of King Lear when I hear a question like that. Throughout that play just when you think things can't get any worse for Lear, they get worse. Right now, the offense is bad, the starting pitching is bad, and the relief pitching is bad. I suppose Guillen and Ordonez could both go down with injuries. While that may not make things worse, it would certainly make recovery from this start much more difficult.

Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hit back-to-back home runs in the first to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead over the Phillies. The heart of the Chicago lineup, the 3-4-5 hitters are producing plenty of extra-base hits. They've knocked out eight home runs and eight doubles with the two dingers tonight.

The Giants have found a way to win. Don't allow runs! The team scored four runs in their last two games, about in line with their offensive rate all year. They've only allowed two, however. Last night, Jonathan Sanchez pitched six shutout innings against the Padres, and the bullpen kept it going until the hero of the previous night, Bengie Molina singled to start the ninth, then with two out, Ortmeier doubled in the pinch runner. So all the Giants need to do to win the NL West is keep their ERA around 1.00!

The Tigers lose to the Red Sox 5-0. At 0-7, it's time to seriously reconsider the notion that the Tigers are a playoff caliber team. A 90 win team has a .555 winning percentage. The chance of a .555 team going 0-7 is .0035, or 0.35%. In other words, playoff teams tend not to lose seven games in a row.

They're not barely over two runs per game, having scored 15 on the year. It's tough to blame this on the absence of Granderson, since Inge has hit well in his stead.

Despite issuing an excitement disclaimer, Jays Nest is very excited about the Toronto Blue Jays:

The truth about this team is that they were hurt last year. They were hurt so bad that even a blind monkey could have mixed in with the other 8 players we had to use at third/ in the bottom of the pitching staff/in center field/ at shortstop (offensively, although I'd give the monkey at least a shot to make a few Johnny Macesque plays)/and catcher the previous season and no one would have noticed. It affected everything, from the hitting to the pressure on the pitchers, to the manager's ability to take chances and run...everything.

Even playing a guy like Marco Scutaro-who I grant you, is basically your (ok, below) league average third baseman-is a HUGE improvement. Yes, a guy who hits .260 is hella better than someone who can't hit anything. And...he can actually move as a bonus! Having Zaun and Overbay able to simply hit the ball at all is another obvious improvment.

That team with half it's players hurt or playing hurt was over five hundred ladies and gentlemen. That is how good the pitching really was and still is.

I like this starting rotation a lot. My worry was the offense, with Wells tanking last year and the former Cardinals long in the tooth. So far, however, so good.

You can't stop the Washington Nationals, you can only hope to contain them. Jamie Moyer fails at containment, allowing five runs in the first inning. Guzman, Belliard and Flores all double in the inning, along with three singles and a walk as the Nationals bat around.

Sam Mellinger looks at how the Tigers went from laughingstocks to champions and compares that path to the one taken by the Royals:

It's funny, though. If you look at how the Tigers went from 119 losses to World Series contender, and squint your eyes a little while you're doing it, it might look like what the Royals are doing now.

It started with the hiring of a new general manager (Dombrowski), who brought in people he'd been successful with in the past (in Florida). They beefed up scouting and player development, focusing on consistently producing major-league players from within (like Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander).

They were mostly ridiculed for their first major free-agent signing (Ivan Rodriguez) and then told they overpaid for a risky outfielder (Magglio Ordoñez).

In order, change the parentheses to Dayton Moore, Atlanta, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Gil Meche and Jose Guillen and it's at least similar in practice, if not results.

"We've got a lot of work to do here, and it's a lot of fun work," Royals general manager Dayton Moore says. "We're building something we're going to be proud of at some point in time. I don't know when that's going to happen. But we're confident."

Moore and the Royals get to test their plan against the Tigers this afternoon.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Florida Marlins. Their starters posted a 5.58 ERA in 2007, highest in Major League Baseball.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Florida Marlins top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Mark Hendrickson	124	67	4.86
Scott Olsen	166	88	4.77
Andrew Miller	83	45	4.88
Rick Vanden Hurk	99	59	5.36
Ricky Nolasco	73	37	4.56
Totals	545	296	4.89

It's really sad when a team finishes last in a category and they do nothing to fix it. It's even worse when they degrade the rotation by insisting on starting pitchers like Hendrickson and Vander Hurk. Marlins fans can hope that Miller plays well in his first full season in the majors, but as for the rest of the rotation, the Maroone call to the bullpen will happen early and often.

Without the ballpark adjustment, Miller is projected to allow less than one home run per nine innings. Playing in Miami, it should even be lower. I'd like to see his projected walks improve. It was excellent in the minors.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals
• Seattle Mariners
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Texas Rangers

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Texas Rangers. Their starters posted a 5.50 ERA in 2007, highest in the American League. Their 838 innings represented the fewest pitched by a starting staff in the majors.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Texas Rangers top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Kevin Millwood	168	86	4.61
Vicente Padilla	140	77	4.95
Jason Jennings	130	69	4.78
Kason Gabbard	100	49	4.41
Luis Mendoza	51	23	4.06
Totals	589	304	4.65

This is just a bad rotation. When the one-two starters each project to ERAs well over 4.00, and only one of them has barely enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, there's going to be trouble. They can't go deep in games, which puts pressure on the bullpen. They get injured, so that brings in replacement starters, who tend to be not as good. Everything builds, and before you know it the whole staff is performing badly.

The positive spin is that Gabbard, Mendoza and McCarthy might develop into good starters, and a healthy Jason Jennings can give the rotation some much needed innings. The rotation starts with such low expectations, there's nowhere to go but up!

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals
• Seattle Mariners
• Tampa Bay Rays

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John Perricone donated $50 or more and dedicates this post:

Congratulations for supporting David's efforts to run the very best baseball site there is. He is, of course, my blogfather, and one of my biggest and earliest supporters. Please continue to drive towards a big pledge month, and of course, please visit David's blogson, Only Baseball Matters.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. Their starters posted a 5.20 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart, sort of. I'm assuming here that Kazmir will be back soon and Hammel is better than Jackson.

Marcel predictions for the Tampa Bay Rays top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Scott Kazmir	178	71	3.59
James Shields	180	83	4.15
Matt Garza	104	49	4.24
Andy Sonnanstine	125	72	5.18
Jason Hammel	95	59	5.59
Totals	682	334	4.41

For a more optimistic look at the Rays rotation (using PECOTA) see my latest SportingNews.com column. Something that Marcels don't pick up that PECOTA captures is fielding. The Rays swapped out one of the worst fielding shortstops of 2007 for one of the best. That should make a big positive difference in the team's ERA. My guess is that Garza and Sonnanstine are going to pitch closer to 160 innings, and eventually they'll replace Jackson with Hammel. Fans are likely to be impressed with the improvement of the team's ERA this year, partially from their pitchers maturing, and partially from the defense playing much better.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals
• Seattle Mariners

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

My lastest column at SportingNews.com looks at which team projects to have the best rotation in the AL East this season.

With Barry Bonds now a non-person, the Giants makes promises they can't keep:

"With Barry Bonds gone," Magowan said, addressing the media throng, "this is clearly the beginning of a new era for the Giants."

He promised a "younger, faster, more energetic ballclub."

Magowan noted that last season's Giants were 4-16 in games that were tied after eight innings. Aha, the team had a bad habit of running out of gas. Remember, Bonds often couldn't go nine, and when he didn't start, sometimes he wasn't available for late-game pinch-hitting.

Team vice president and COO Larry Baer promised that this season's team is built "with players that are not only going to play hard, but with a team concept."

Magowan, discussing the projected starting outfield that has Dave Roberts in left and Randy Winn in right, said, "We had a bad defensive outfield last year. ... Winn and Roberts had to play out of position."

Because what's-his-name was moored in left field.

So count on it: younger, peppier, more energetic. But not all at once. Seven of the eight projected starters (once Omar Vizquel returns) have an average age of just under 35.

If you really want a youthful team, you do what Cleveland and Florida did. Trade or release all the veterans and put young players on the field.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Seattle Mariners. Their starters posted a 5.16 ERA in 2007, twelfth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Seattle Mariners top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Erik Bedard	171	70	3.68
Felix Hernandez	174	77	3.98
Miguel Batista	166	84	4.55
Jarrod Washburn	176	86	4.40
Carlos Silva	177	91	4.63
Totals	864	408	4.25

Faced with a truly bad rotation, the Mariners made two moves to improve their starters. They traded the future for another ace, Erik Bedard. They also signed Carlos Silva, a master of putting the ball in the strike zone. Silva doesn't walk many, but his pitches in the zone can be hittable. However, he's a very good back of the rotation pitcher, which is all the Mariners need. After competing despite two horrible starters in the rotation, the Mariners look a lot stronger this year.

One question that needs to be answered is can Felix Hernandez be effective and healthy at the same time. He was off to an amazing start before an injury shelved him. Can he pitch like that again without putting his arm at risk? It's a similar question the Twins have with Liriano.

I like this rotation. The front end might be great, and the back end isn't terrible. Not too many teams can say that. With the injuries in Anaheim, the Mariners look like they have the best staff in the AL West.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Washington Nationals. Their starters posted a 5.11 ERA in 2007, fifteenth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Washington Nationals top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Odalis Perez	136	82	5.43
Jason Bergmann	109	57	4.71
Tim Redding	100	49	4.75
Matt Chico	143	71	4.47
John Lannan	77	36	4.21
Totals	565	295	4.70

A clue that this rotation doesn't work is that the fourth starter is projected to pitch the most innings, and the fourth and fifth starters project to the lowest ERA among the starting five. It's really sad that the Nationals can't come up with a better solution than Odalis Perez for opening day.

Shawn Hill starting the season hurt certainly doesn't help. Although he projects to a good ERA, he doesn't project to a lot of innings either. Expect this team to use lots of starters this season.

Update: Lannan was just optioned to AAA. However,

Manny Acta said he could be back soon depending on Shawn Hill's status.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals

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Bless You Boys sorts out the Tigers outfield now that Granderson is starting the season on the disabled list. Inge is going to get some playing time there. I bet as the season progresses, Brandon is going to play a lot more than he thought. He's seems to be the first replacement for almost every position. However, I would guess that moving Jones to center, Cabrera to left and letting Inge play third would give the team the best defensive alignment with Curtis on the sidelines.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. Their starters posted a 5.04 ERA in 2007, fourteenth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Adam Wainwright	149	62	3.74
Braden Looper	131	67	4.01
Kyle Lohse	163	86	4.75
Todd Wellemeyer	78	39	4.50
Brad Thompson	103	49	4.28
Totals	624	303	4.37

At the moment, this is a cobbled together rotation. Wainwright gives the team a legitimate number one starter. However, he went from 75 innings in 2006 to 202 innings in 2007, and that puts him at risk for injury. The Cardinals own a lot of injury depth, however, as Pineiro, Clement and Mulder are working their way back for an early season return, and they may even get Chris Carpenter on the mound in the second half of the season.

These injuries are a golden opportunity for pitchers like Lohse, Wellemeyer and Thompson to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. Given the history of Lohse and Wellemeyer, however, Thompson has the best chance of sticking around. Given the general lack of talent in these five and all the injuries, I suspect the rotation that ends the season for St. Louis will look very different from the one that starts the year.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.