Reports that the Yankees were about to sign Gary Sheffield appear to be premature.

Despite the urge to respond to Boston's acquisition of Curt Schilling, the Yankees are holding firm in their negotiations with Sheffield, ESPN.com's Buster Olney has learned. The Yankees are offering the free-agent outfielder a three-year deal with an annual salary of $11 million, the amount Sheffield earned with the Braves in 2003.

Published reports indicated the potential deal includes a fourth-year option and is worth between $38 million and $40 million.

"Sheffield is still talking in the clouds," a source told ESPN.com, adding that Sheffield talked as recently as last week about a desire to re-sign with Atlanta.

This reminds me of the 2000 season. The rumors were flying left and right that the Yankees were going to acquire Sammy Sosa or Juan Gonzalez. This made no sense to me, since what the Yankees needed at the time was lefty power. A deal for a right-handed slugger just didn't make sense. The Yankees traded for Dave Justice, just the kind of hitter they needed.

Right now, the Yankees don't need another bad defensive outfielder. And if they are going to go right-handed, they'd be much better off with Vlad Guerrero. Or, they could take a chance that 2003 wasn't a fluke and sign Jose Guillen for a lot less money than either of the other two.

I don't think the Yankees will sign Sheffield. Now that they won't be getting Schilling, I think they'll use the money to invest in pitching.

Update:: According to Peter Gammons, I'm wrong. The deal is done and Sheffield is waiting to sign on the bottom line. Billy Connor had a heart attack on Friday, and that's holding things up. Our best goes out to Billy and hope he recovers quickly. Still I'm waiting for the deal to be absolutely final.

I attended the meeting of the Southern New England chapter of SABR today. They had two interesting guests; Joe Morgan, the former manager of the Red Sox, and Art Johnson, a lefty pitcher for the Braves in the early 40's.

Joe Morgan gave a presentation that was part recollections, part trivia. Two questions he answered struck me as worth repeating. One audience member asked him about the importance of team chemistry. Joe basically said that team chemistry was a crock. Give him good players, and they'll win. He pointed out my favorite example, the A's of the early 70's of a team that had no chemistry but won. The other question was on steroids. He pointed out that when he was a player he and his teammates used greenies. Morgan said he used them if he was playing a double header after a night game. Others, however, used them all the time. He talked about the Cardinals having a jar of them in the clubhouse, but then players started using 6 or 7 a game. At that point, the club put the drug under lock and key. He refused to name any players who might be using steroids today.

Art Johnson came to talk about Casey Stengel, who was his manager in Boston. I asked him about Stengel wanting to have fielders who were great at turning the double play, and Art confirmed that Casey always tried to have great players up the middle.

If you are at all interested in baseball history, I would recommend attending one of these meetings. The SNE chapter always has interesting speakers and usually has some good reports.

I must be tired lately, because it's taken me a few days to get a handle on what's bothering me about productive outs. Here's the line that's bothering me:

Base on balls are a fundamental piece of the Athletics' offensive philosophy, but statistically, they have shown to have slightly less significance than Productive Outs in the post-season.

That's a very misleading line. Significance is in the eye of the beholder. When we talk about significance, we're talking about the probability of something being very low; how low is up to the person studying the data, but most people look for a probability under .05 for something to be significant.

So let's do a thought experiment. According to the article, of 130 series in which one team made more productive outs than the other, the team with more productive outs won 62.3% series, or 81 total. We can define this as a Bernoulli random variable; it has the value 1 if the team which wins the series has more productive outs, 0 if the team which wins the series has fewer productive outs. Now, imagine a bag filled with balls labeled 1 or 0 in the proportion 81 1's and 49 0's. Taking a ball from the bag is a Bernoulli trial. If we do this many times (replacing the removed ball each time), the probability of getting a certain number of 1's in a certain number of trials is given by the binomial distribution.

With the binomial, we can ask questions like, "What is the probability of getting exactly 78 balls with a 1 if I make 130 trials," or, "What is the probability of getting at least 85 1's in 130 trials." But more importantly, we can ask, if I repeatedly sample 130 balls from the bag, what range will the result be in 95% of the time? To be clear, here's the experiment:

Perform 130 Bernoulli trials with our bag of balls. Record the number of balls labeled with a 1. Repeat this experiment thousands of times. Make a histogram of the results.

The histogram will look like a normal distribution (and in fact, for a large number of trials, it can be approximated with the normal) with the highest bar on 81, the mean. The height of each bar of the histogram represents the probability of getting that number of 1's. At 81, the height is .072. If we sum the height of the bars around the mean until we get .95, we've found the range where we expect 95% of the results to be. For this distribution, with 130 trials, that range is 69-91.

Now, according to the article, more walks win a series 60% of the time, or 78 out of 130. Seventy-eight is well within our 69-91 range of 95%. So walks are not less significant than productive outs. The fact is, this difference could easily be sampling error. If we did another trial, we might get 75 wins on productive outs and 85 wins on walks, and we still couldn't tell if they came from the same distribution or not.

The sample size is too small. They have not shown there is any significant difference in any of the stats they mention.

I will be attending the meeting of the Southern New England Chapter of SABR with my good friend Jim Storer today. If you are there, be sure to say hi. Joe Morgan, the former manager of the Red Sox will be the guest speaker at 11 AM.

The Red Sox pulled it off, and worked a deal to bring Curt Schilling to Boston. It's a trade that helps both clubs; the Diamondbacks cut their payroll without decimating their roster and the Red Sox dramatically improve their rotation.

Ed Zipper points out to me that Schilling was interested in more than money:

Schilling also had a lot of initial concerns about issues other players might not be as interested in -- such as the level of detail in advance scouting reports and the amount of video and technological information that would be available. But Schilling told Stark that Epstein and his assistant, Jed Hoyer, were "very impressive."

"Obviously, they were thoroughly prepared, with a thorough understanding of what was important to me as a player," Schilling said. "They answered all of those issues right off the bat. And that made this a lot easier."

Schilling is a smart and outspoken player. It will be interesting to see how his outspokeness meshes with the Boston media.

One thing Schilling brings to the Red Sox is in-game durability. From 1997 on, Schilling has completed 52 games, the most in the majors:

Pitcher	CG
Curt Schilling	52
Randy Johnson	47
David Wells	36
Pedro Martinez	34
Livan Hernandez	31

So, unlike Pedro, you don't have to worry that Schilling is going to break down if he pitches more than 7 innings. That should reduce the amount of damage the bullpen can do next season.

This also makes it look like Terry Francona is going to be the manager. I wonder how he'll set up the rotation? Will he go with Pedro and Schilling back-to-back, or split them with Lowe or Wakefield to try to keep teams off balance?

Dan Shaughnessy, in typical Globe fashion, finds the dark clouds in the deal:

The Sox news doesn't end with last night's announcement. Boston will introduce new manager Terry Francona Tuesday. Meanwhile, they are still wooing Oakland closer Keith Foulke and think they can eventually talk the Rangers into a Manny Ramirez-for-Alex Rodriguez deal.

Unfortunately, Francona is going to be strapped with the notion that he was hired to lure Schilling. That's not a good start for a guy who had the reputation as a players' manager in Philadelphia. Francona certainly seems like a nice fellow, but the next Sox manager needs to address the star system in the clubhouse. Still, we're all in favor of any guy who has a dad named Tito. It has a nice ring -- Son of Tito managing the BoSox. Sounds like some kind of monster movie -- Son of Tito Meets Godzilla.

Meanwhile, Foulke strikes me as a guy who might be overwhelmed here in the Hub. He's a changeup artist and might not react well if he gets ripped after one or two bad outings early in the year. That's the beauty of Schilling. He lives for the big games, has played in the big games, and won't take the apple if things get a little tight and testy in this town without pity.

As for A-Rod, it seems too good to be true which means it probably can't happen. In their dreams, the Sox think Texas general manager John Hart might do something stupid because he likes Manny from their good old days in Cleveland. There's also the hope that the Texas owner, Tom Hicks, will be seduced by the idea of saving $80 million and still getting Manny's bat along with a Scott Williamson or Scott Sauerbeck. Nice try, Sox fans, but don't wait underwater for this deal.

One great thing about losing a close one is making you want to win that much more. The Red Sox told everyone yesterday they are not fooling around. They want the World Championship this year.

Yesterday I started discussing productive outs. I'm starting to look at data, and the definition they published yesterday isn't quite accurate. It appears they do not count double plays that advance runners as productive outs, at least in the case where a there are men on first and second and the DP advances a runner to third. Since they don't have data for other years, I don't know if a DP that scores a runner is counted as a productive out. I'm going to assume no for the rest of my study.

I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, and hope you get to enjoy time with your family and friends today. I especially wish to thank our armed forces for their service in difficult times. I appreciate all you do.

The A's and Padres have finally consumated this deal. Long and Hernandez move to the Padres, and Mark Kotsay joins the A's. I haven't seen any speculation about who the new cather will be, although I suspect he will come from the farm system.

J Lentner writes:

I guess one could applaud ESPN for giving equal time to the traditionalists with , the first in a promised series on productive outs. What really makes his case for the productive out laughable is the accompanying box. Florida won the PO battle 9-5 yet was outscored 21-17. So the one cancels the other out and it comes down to the fact that the Yankees’ batters slumped and the Marlins’ pitchers excelled.

Off the top of my head, I’d assume that the teams winning in postseason that had a “edge in PO” were the ones that also had an edge in OBA, and therefore Buster Olney’s articlehad more opportunities to move runners over. Seems simple enough.

I should probably take an hour off from work to respond to this article. This is Elias playing politics. The Elias Sports Bureau cannot survive without the support of the leagues. What they see is themselves being made irrelevant by the likes of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein, who look to non-Elias people for information. If I'm an owner, I have to start asking why MLB is paying the Hirdts big money to keep stats, when others can do it as well and cheaper. So Elias has decided to appeal to all those GMs who think Beane is wrong.

The style of play that generates many of the Productive Outs - putting runners in motion, bunting - has been scrutinized by many baseball theorists in recent seasons. Some teams, most notably the Oakland Athletics, have played with the philosophy that a team's 27 outs should not be wasted.

This has worked for Oakland during the regular season: the Athletics averaged 98 regular-season victories from 2000-2003. During that time, they ranked 14th, 13th, 14th and 13th in the 14-team American League in stolen bases, and 12th, 13th, 13th and 13th in sacrifice bunts. Their base-runners proceeded carefully, taking care not to make a mistake that would effectively strip a teammate of a chance to swing the bat. Bunts, hit-and-run plays and aggressive secondary leads are not part of the Athletics' DNA.

Oakland has generated walks, something that other great teams had done before -- one of Gene Michael's primary goals when he began rebuilding the Yankees in 1990 was to increase on-base percentage -- with the goal of saturating the bases with runners and scoring more.

But this conservative style has not translated well in the post-season, when the pitching is markedly better, there are more off-days to rest the best pitchers, and the pressure is greater. Rather than concentrating on not wasting their 27 outs, most championship teams have successfully used their outs, working to put runners in scoring position.

I also get the feeling that Elias has rigged the definition to make the stat look good.

This is the Productive Out, as defined and developed by ESPN The Magazine and the Elias Sports Bureau: when a fly ball, grounder or bunt advances a runner with nobody out; when a pitcher bunts to advance a runner with one out (maximizing the effectiveness of the pitcher's at-bat), or when a grounder or fly ball scores a run with one out.

Doesn't that seem limited to you? I mean, if you move a runner into scoring position with two outs, doesn't that count for something? And besides, didn't Pete Palmer show 20 years ago that trading an out for a base always decreases run potential?

I'm going to write more on this later, but I'll leave you with two themes I've hit upon all year; getting on base is important, and putting the ball in play is important.
Clarification: Chris Lynch thinks I'm not being clear with this statement:

I mean, if you move a runner into scoring position with two outs, doesn't that count for something?

I meant the play ends with two outs (begins with one out).

The Cubs and Marlins made an excellent trade, swapping first basemen Hee Seop Choi and Derrek Lee. Lee will bring some much needed OBA to the Cubs lineup, and I suspect Wrigley will help his power numbers. In return, the Marlins are getting a younger first basemen who has had great minor league numbers but has struggled at the major league level. He was having a decent season until a head on collision put him out of action for a while. The Marlins are saving some money, and Choi has a decent chance of being as good as Lee with the bat.

Rob Neyer has a very sane piece on the steroid problem at ESPN.com.

I wish somebody could wave a magic wand and eliminate all illegal and/or dangerous performance-enhancing substances from professional sports. Who knows, maybe we'll get there someday. But today, right now, steroids and Human Growth Hormone and all the rest are a part of the environment. Not a positive part. But a part.

Is this a problem? Sure. But baseball's always had problems, and somehow it's always survived.

Yes, all of the great home-run records may be falling. But the sky isn't.

Warren Spahn died today at the age of 82. He was part of the famous rhyme of the Boston Braves, "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain." My deepest sympathy goes out to his family and friends.

Spahn was my standard trivia answer when I could narrow the question to pitching in the 1950s. He was the definition of a 20 game winner, reaching that mark 13 times. He didn't strike out a lot of batters per 9, but he didn't walk many either Most amazing is his 1963 season, when at the age of 42 he posted a 23-7 record (he had the same record 10 years earlier). In eight World Series appearances, he allowed a meager .269 OBA and had a 4-3 record.

Update: Here's a post I wrote about Spahn earlier this year.

There's a report that Curt Schilling has been traded to the Red Sox. ESPN.com has it has breaking news on their baseball page, but nothing official. Nothing on Google News yet, either.

Update: Here's a link to an actual story. And according to this on The Sports Network, Schilling has a no-trade clause in his contract, and has only named the Yankees and Phillies as teams to which he would move.

This Daily News article sketches out the Yankees plans for the off-season. The big idea now is to corner the Matsui market and put Kaz at second, move Soriano to the outfield, move Bernie Williams to DH, Hideki to center and Sheffield to right. The odd man out in this scenario is Nick Johnson, and that's too bad.

Of course, I would put Kaz at shortstop, since that's where they need the most defensive help and move Jeter to 2nd. But at least the Yankees realize that Bernie can't cut it in centerfield anymore.

I'm also not crazy about signing Sheffield. I'm not a big fan of right-handed power hitters in Yankee Stadium, even one as good as Gary. And if you are going to sign a righty to fill that role, why not sign Vlad who's still young and has more good years in front of him?

ESPN.com is reporting that substances retrieved from Greg Anderson's home may be anabolic steroids. Of course, it's from an unnamed source, so take that for what it's worth. Anderson is Barry Bonds trainer, and the raid was part of the investigation of BALCO.

A search of Greg Anderson's house also discovered information that detailed athletes' names, the names of drugs they may be using and apparent drug intake schedules, according to the Chronicle report. There was no information in the report linking Bonds himself to the drugs or the recorded information.

If this is true, I'd love to see those documents.

Excellent column by Peter Gammons on the challenges facing baseball.

But whether or not they are colluding is part of a larger issue -- that after the 10 months of aborted contraction and messy labor negotiations (on both sides) when they finally did reach an agreement, they had an opportunity to move forward and try to grow the game in a partnership between owners and the human product that the owners need to sell. When it was suggested that their be a private, weeklong brainstorming session with representatives from ownership, GMs, agents, players and creative people outside -- or on the periphery of the game -- to try to come up with ideas for moving forward, Selig promised he was going to initiate some serious efforts to that end.

Nothing has happened, and the trust between owners and players is in reverse, headed back to the courthouse. Is this all Selig's fault? No, he has to corral 28 owners, many of whom have that Wal-Mart mentality that lives for union-busting and burning down the landscapes of family and small businesses across America. The Players' Association leadership, too, lives in a fiery NLRB world where they never dare lay down their arms for fear the enemy will strike at dawn.

I have felt for years that the owners and players have to form a partnership. There's more than enough money out there for everybody in this game. And there will be even more if the fans think the two sides aren't trying to destroy each other.

Arizona detectives have searched the home of Jennifer Gaddis and questioned her in Indiana.

Arizona detectives served a search warrant and spent much of Friday questioning an Indiana woman they consider to be "an investigative lead" in the execution-style killing of Cincinnati Reds outfielder Dernell Stenson.

The woman, Stenson's ex-girlfriend, sent a series of threatening and harassing messages to the ballplayer just two weeks before he was killed, according to police reports released this week.

Authorities in Arizona and Indiana were careful to avoid calling Jennifer R. Gaddis a suspect in the Stenson case.

Lt. Phil Burton of the Marion County (Ind.) Sheriff's Office told Indianapolis Star reporter Tom Spalding that Gaddis was "only an investigative lead . . . and not under arrest."

I wanted to look at individual third basemen next. One reader wondered about Eric Chavez; he had been rated very high by other systems over the last few years, but the Oakland third basemen in total did not do well under this probabilistic system. Chavez comes out about average under this method, but Frank Menechino does most of the damage at the position (based on 200 balls in play when on the field):

Third Baseman	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Alfredo Amezaga	23.9	0.087	31.0	0.112	0.02569
Donnie Sadler	36.5	0.079	43.0	0.093	0.01407
Carlos Guillen	69.2	0.080	80.0	0.093	0.01253
Pedro Feliz	90.1	0.102	100.0	0.113	0.01119
Mike Bordick	43.4	0.085	49.0	0.096	0.01105
Denny Hocking	44.6	0.097	49.0	0.106	0.00942
Shane Halter	116.2	0.092	128.0	0.102	0.00941
Damian Rolls	179.3	0.095	195.0	0.104	0.00838
David Bell	205.3	0.097	223.0	0.105	0.00835
Chris Truby	35.9	0.096	39.0	0.104	0.00817
Mark Bellhorn	103.6	0.087	113.0	0.095	0.00795
Howie Clark	19.0	0.069	21.0	0.076	0.00726
Morgan Ensberg	216.4	0.091	233.0	0.097	0.00697
Lou Merloni	60.9	0.095	65.0	0.101	0.00630
Casey Blake	334.8	0.090	358.0	0.096	0.00626
Juan Castro	51.0	0.089	54.0	0.094	0.00519
Willie Bloomquist	60.3	0.080	64.0	0.085	0.00493
Russell Branyan	55.7	0.116	58.0	0.121	0.00489
Desi Relaford	67.6	0.095	71.0	0.099	0.00474
Matt Kata	47.8	0.098	50.0	0.102	0.00461
Greg Norton	67.8	0.093	71.0	0.097	0.00438
Robby Hammock	50.6	0.158	52.0	0.162	0.00428
Geoff Blum	151.2	0.084	158.0	0.088	0.00379
Jose Hernandez	181.6	0.104	188.0	0.107	0.00367
Craig Counsell	126.2	0.104	130.0	0.108	0.00318
Jeff Cirillo	161.1	0.080	167.0	0.083	0.00291
Vinny Castilla	367.7	0.093	379.0	0.096	0.00287
Jared Sandberg	98.1	0.089	101.0	0.091	0.00264
Jamey Carroll	144.6	0.110	148.0	0.112	0.00258
Matt Williams	84.5	0.091	86.0	0.093	0.00162
Jose Leon	23.6	0.095	24.0	0.097	0.00161
Adrian Beltre	385.7	0.103	391.0	0.105	0.00143
Edgardo Alfonzo	279.2	0.080	284.0	0.082	0.00139
Chris Stynes	284.7	0.092	289.0	0.093	0.00138
Scott Rolen	379.4	0.090	385.0	0.091	0.00131
Mike Lowell	307.4	0.092	311.0	0.093	0.00109
Alex Cintron	30.6	0.087	31.0	0.089	0.00108
Robin Ventura	183.3	0.089	185.0	0.090	0.00083
Shawn Wooten	34.7	0.081	35.0	0.082	0.00074
Hank Blalock	317.9	0.086	320.0	0.087	0.00057
Miguel Cabrera	65.7	0.083	66.0	0.084	0.00034
Fernando Tatis	113.0	0.091	113.0	0.091	-0.00001
Eric Chavez	445.3	0.110	445.0	0.110	-0.00008
Joe Crede	354.4	0.091	354.0	0.091	-0.00010
Brandon Larson	62.1	0.099	62.0	0.099	-0.00011
Aaron Boone	360.9	0.096	360.0	0.096	-0.00023
Tony Batista	355.1	0.082	354.0	0.082	-0.00026
Sean Burroughs	319.4	0.094	318.0	0.093	-0.00040
Jay Bell	20.1	0.089	20.0	0.088	-0.00048
Tony Graffanino	20.3	0.060	20.0	0.059	-0.00075
Todd Zeile	144.7	0.094	143.0	0.093	-0.00110
Wes Helms	319.5	0.090	315.0	0.089	-0.00126
Joe Randa	315.6	0.090	311.0	0.089	-0.00131
Aramis Ramirez	418.3	0.099	411.0	0.097	-0.00172
Troy Glaus	180.3	0.079	176.0	0.077	-0.00188
Bill Mueller	304.2	0.089	297.0	0.087	-0.00210
Jose Macias	42.3	0.089	41.0	0.087	-0.00281
Corey Koskie	327.5	0.092	317.0	0.089	-0.00296
Keith Ginter	69.1	0.070	66.0	0.067	-0.00313
Enrique Wilson	30.1	0.104	29.0	0.100	-0.00388
Rob Mackowiak	34.6	0.086	33.0	0.083	-0.00393
Edwards Guzman	42.2	0.075	40.0	0.071	-0.00401
Tomas Perez	122.2	0.101	117.0	0.096	-0.00426
Eric Hinske	293.4	0.087	278.0	0.082	-0.00456
Ramon Martinez	57.8	0.096	55.0	0.092	-0.00463
Dave Berg	30.8	0.079	29.0	0.074	-0.00466
Ty Wigginton	399.9	0.094	380.0	0.090	-0.00468
Placido Polanco	48.6	0.090	46.0	0.085	-0.00481
Dave Hansen	22.3	0.088	21.0	0.083	-0.00509
Mark DeRosa	56.3	0.107	53.0	0.101	-0.00631
Mark McLemore	66.3	0.098	62.0	0.092	-0.00633
Danny Klassen	35.4	0.094	33.0	0.088	-0.00638
Lenny Harris	57.5	0.089	53.0	0.082	-0.00699
Tim Hummel	45.0	0.087	41.0	0.079	-0.00778
Shea Hillenbrand	135.2	0.089	123.0	0.081	-0.00804
Julius Matos	14.2	0.061	12.0	0.051	-0.00948
Chris Gomez	44.2	0.099	40.0	0.090	-0.00949
Eric Munson	231.4	0.090	206.0	0.080	-0.00986
Frank Menechino	27.3	0.090	24.0	0.079	-0.01082
Garrett Atkins	37.4	0.078	32.0	0.067	-0.01129
Mark Teixeira	30.6	0.097	27.0	0.086	-0.01140
Wilson Delgado	21.6	0.076	18.0	0.064	-0.01261
Aubrey Huff	17.1	0.070	14.0	0.058	-0.01262
Scott Spiezio	99.7	0.081	84.0	0.068	-0.01274
Damion Easley	51.2	0.083	43.0	0.069	-0.01317
Tyler Houston	44.5	0.107	39.0	0.094	-0.01330
John McDonald	28.3	0.076	23.0	0.062	-0.01424
Dmitri Young	49.8	0.113	43.0	0.097	-0.01536

Looks like Casey Blake has the best range of the regular third baseman. I haven't seen him play much. Is anyone surprised by that?

Tino Martinez was traded to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for a minor league pitcher. The reality of this deal is that the Cardinals gave Tino away. They are picking up most of his contract for next year, so he's only going to cost the DRays about $1,000,000. Of course, if the Rays had any sense, they would have found a minor league slugger who could hit better than Tino and earn only $300,000.

Meanwhile, the Angels have signed Kelvim Escobar to a three year contract. The Jays had offered him two years and less money per year. Escobar was as good in 2003 as anyone on the Angels staff, but he shouldn't be considered the ace.

Rich Lederer interviewed me for his blog, Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat. Enjoy.

Part three of Michael Humphreys defensive regression analysis is up on Baseball Primer.

It's time to start looking at the range of individual players. I'm starting with first basemen, since people have noticed the wide disparity between the A's and Devil Rays. This table contains data for all first basemen who were on the field for at least 50 balls in play.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Bobby Kielty	4.5	0.087	6.0	0.115	0.02793
Denny Hocking	11.4	0.087	15.0	0.114	0.02711
Benji Gil	3.5	0.053	5.0	0.075	0.02185
Dave Hansen	24.7	0.084	31.0	0.105	0.02140
Mike Hessman	2.2	0.026	4.0	0.047	0.02054
John Mabry	13.5	0.080	16.0	0.095	0.01481
Ron Coomer	21.6	0.066	26.0	0.079	0.01345
Russell Branyan	20.4	0.067	24.0	0.079	0.01178
Brian Banks	10.0	0.051	12.0	0.062	0.01048
Mike Kinkade	14.0	0.071	16.0	0.081	0.00997
Justin Morneau	8.9	0.075	10.0	0.084	0.00936
Travis Lee	315.8	0.081	346.0	0.088	0.00771
Robin Ventura	41.2	0.062	46.0	0.069	0.00715
Kevin Young	32.6	0.050	37.0	0.057	0.00671
Tom Wilson	9.0	0.060	10.0	0.067	0.00664
Morgan Burkhart	1.7	0.032	2.0	0.038	0.00613
J.T. Snow	174.0	0.071	188.0	0.077	0.00569
Dave McCarty	15.4	0.127	16.0	0.132	0.00493
Doug Mientkiewicz	261.3	0.072	278.0	0.077	0.00463
Julio Franco	73.3	0.058	79.0	0.063	0.00451
Mark Teixeira	211.7	0.072	223.0	0.076	0.00384
Kevin Millar	201.0	0.078	210.0	0.081	0.00349
Derrek Lee	279.7	0.069	293.0	0.072	0.00327
David Segui	16.4	0.082	17.0	0.085	0.00297
Craig Paquette	5.7	0.054	6.0	0.057	0.00285
Lyle Overbay	156.8	0.088	161.0	0.091	0.00235
Brian Buchanan	21.0	0.045	22.0	0.048	0.00223
John Olerud	297.4	0.077	306.0	0.079	0.00222
Todd Zeile	44.9	0.083	46.0	0.086	0.00205
Jeff Conine	246.1	0.076	252.0	0.077	0.00182
Edwards Guzman	10.6	0.046	11.0	0.048	0.00182
Casey Blake	39.3	0.088	40.0	0.090	0.00160
Carlos Baerga	27.5	0.080	28.0	0.081	0.00139
Phil Nevin	65.2	0.084	66.0	0.085	0.00105
Adam Dunn	21.8	0.075	22.0	0.076	0.00086
Paul Konerko	217.1	0.077	219.0	0.077	0.00066
Mark Grace	62.5	0.083	63.0	0.084	0.00062
David Ortiz	88.3	0.074	89.0	0.075	0.00061
Sean Casey	260.8	0.065	263.0	0.065	0.00054
Todd Helton	365.2	0.081	367.0	0.082	0.00041
Tino Martinez	243.6	0.073	245.0	0.073	0.00040
Albert Pujols	84.5	0.071	85.0	0.072	0.00038
Tony Clark	86.4	0.053	87.0	0.054	0.00036
Daryle Ward	22.9	0.082	23.0	0.083	0.00024
Brian Daubach	53.9	0.064	54.0	0.064	0.00016
Joe Vitiello	20.0	0.082	20.0	0.082	-0.00003
Greg Colbrunn	23.0	0.081	23.0	0.080	-0.00014
Jason Phillips	131.7	0.061	131.0	0.061	-0.00030
Mendy Lopez	14.1	0.071	14.0	0.071	-0.00037
Ryan Klesko	186.5	0.068	185.0	0.067	-0.00055
Richie Sexson	348.6	0.076	346.0	0.076	-0.00057
Aubrey Huff	37.4	0.063	37.0	0.062	-0.00064
Scott Spiezio	173.6	0.071	172.0	0.070	-0.00066
Carlos Delgado	316.0	0.078	313.0	0.077	-0.00073
Robert Fick	169.5	0.059	167.0	0.059	-0.00086
Ken Harvey	205.5	0.079	203.0	0.078	-0.00098
Erubiel Durazo	58.1	0.069	57.0	0.068	-0.00131
Orlando Merced	10.2	0.068	10.0	0.067	-0.00136
Randall Simon	178.6	0.071	175.0	0.069	-0.00143
Travis Hafner	66.5	0.063	65.0	0.061	-0.00144
Jason Giambi	153.3	0.068	150.0	0.066	-0.00144
Jeff Bagwell	280.8	0.069	275.0	0.068	-0.00144
Ben Broussard	203.3	0.071	199.0	0.069	-0.00150
Jim Thome	288.2	0.070	282.0	0.068	-0.00151
Rafael Palmeiro	106.3	0.073	104.0	0.071	-0.00156
Hee Seop Choi	112.3	0.082	110.0	0.081	-0.00165
Matthew LeCroy	19.6	0.062	19.0	0.060	-0.00179
Andres Galarraga	102.9	0.065	100.0	0.063	-0.00184
Tomas Perez	10.2	0.091	10.0	0.089	-0.00190
Carlos Rivera	42.4	0.064	41.0	0.062	-0.00215
Matt Stairs	38.5	0.057	37.0	0.055	-0.00219
Eric Karros	132.5	0.065	128.0	0.063	-0.00222
Wil Cordero	209.0	0.067	202.0	0.065	-0.00224
Robb Quinlan	38.3	0.068	37.0	0.066	-0.00227
B.J. Surhoff	33.3	0.061	32.0	0.059	-0.00232
Raul Ibanez	41.4	0.069	40.0	0.066	-0.00234
Carlos Pena	236.8	0.065	228.0	0.062	-0.00240
Brad Wilkerson	31.0	0.076	30.0	0.074	-0.00247
Shawn Wooten	44.9	0.067	43.0	0.064	-0.00275
Jeff Liefer	29.2	0.068	28.0	0.065	-0.00276
Nick Johnson	120.6	0.072	116.0	0.069	-0.00277
Larry Barnes	10.4	0.077	10.0	0.074	-0.00298
Mike Sweeney	89.7	0.074	86.0	0.071	-0.00303
Todd Sears	24.0	0.071	23.0	0.068	-0.00309
Shane Halter	17.9	0.066	17.0	0.062	-0.00345
Brad Fullmer	33.7	0.075	32.0	0.071	-0.00382
Shea Hillenbrand	136.1	0.075	129.0	0.071	-0.00389
Matt Franco	18.2	0.058	17.0	0.054	-0.00395
Shane Spencer	9.8	0.051	9.0	0.047	-0.00403
Craig Wilson	44.2	0.063	41.0	0.058	-0.00454
Adam Riggs	18.2	0.077	17.0	0.072	-0.00494
Mo Vaughn	33.8	0.060	31.0	0.055	-0.00497
Carlos Mendez	9.6	0.088	9.0	0.083	-0.00509
Kevin Witt	52.8	0.073	49.0	0.067	-0.00523
Todd Pratt	9.7	0.078	9.0	0.072	-0.00553
Herbert Perry	4.5	0.054	4.0	0.048	-0.00574
Scott Hatteberg	231.7	0.068	211.0	0.062	-0.00612
Fred McGriff	112.3	0.061	101.0	0.055	-0.00613
Andy Abad	11.7	0.103	11.0	0.096	-0.00617
Jose Leon	7.1	0.047	6.0	0.040	-0.00708
Paul Lo Duca	32.4	0.068	29.0	0.061	-0.00720
Jay Bell	5.0	0.047	4.0	0.038	-0.00945
Pedro Feliz	20.7	0.076	18.0	0.066	-0.00989
Jay Gibbons	18.2	0.059	15.0	0.049	-0.01037
Frank Thomas	40.6	0.068	34.0	0.057	-0.01108
Frank Catalanotto	8.9	0.119	8.0	0.107	-0.01190
Jolbert Cabrera	8.1	0.088	7.0	0.075	-0.01224
Graham Koonce	4.7	0.082	4.0	0.069	-0.01255
Michael Cuddyer	6.9	0.075	5.0	0.055	-0.02052
Josh Phelps	13.0	0.068	9.0	0.047	-0.02088

As you can see, Travis Lee is very good, and Scott Hatteberg isn't. Let's see if we can find where the difference is. Let's break the two of them down by batted ball type.

Scott Hatteberg

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
B	10.2	0.108	9.0	0.096	-0.01241
G	147.7	0.091	136.0	0.084	-0.00723
L	10.5	0.018	6.0	0.010	-0.00780
P	63.4	0.179	60.0	0.169	-0.00956

Travis Lee

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
B	9.0	0.148	12.0	0.197	0.04918
G	205.4	0.125	213.0	0.129	0.00461
L	16.4	0.022	18.0	0.024	0.00213
P	85.0	0.207	103.0	0.251	0.04387

As you can see, Hatteberg is poor at on every batted ball type. Travis Lee is particularly good at catching pop ups. Let's look at the two of them by direction. Direction X represents the first base line, C represents the third base line, M is up the middle.

Scott Hatteberg

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
M	0.7	0.004	1.0	0.006	0.00185
Q	1.4	0.011	2.0	0.016	0.00519
S	2.0	0.017	2.0	0.017	-0.00000
T	1.2	0.009	1.0	0.008	-0.00172
U	14.1	0.100	6.0	0.043	-0.05738
V	42.4	0.289	36.0	0.245	-0.04385
W	67.6	0.501	59.0	0.437	-0.06400
X	61.2	0.557	65.0	0.591	0.03416
Y	24.3	0.695	24.0	0.686	-0.00944
Z	16.3	0.711	15.0	0.652	-0.05870

Travis Lee

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
D	1.0	0.004	1.0	0.004	-0.00000
M	0.5	0.002	1.0	0.004	0.00212
N	1.4	0.007	3.0	0.015	0.00769
O	0.6	0.004	2.0	0.013	0.00921
R	0.8	0.005	1.0	0.006	0.00131
S	2.2	0.014	3.0	0.018	0.00464
T	3.7	0.019	3.0	0.015	-0.00347
U	13.9	0.113	16.0	0.130	0.01713
V	48.9	0.379	57.0	0.442	0.06298
W	103.2	0.596	108.0	0.624	0.02795
X	88.5	0.575	96.0	0.623	0.04844
Y	29.6	0.672	32.0	0.727	0.05534
Z	21.3	0.711	23.0	0.767	0.05557

As you can see, unless you hit the ball right at Hatteberg, he has trouble fielding it. Meanwhile Lee gets to balls all over the infield. More to come.

Still more background on Jennifer R. Gaddis and the men who are accused of murdering Dernell Stenson. Seems the men were stopped in Missouri on a drug bust:

The Arizona Republic has learned that a day after Stenson alerted police about the threat, two men later charged in his death were stopped by authorities in Missouri on suspicion of unrelated drug activities as they drove from Illinois to Arizona.

The men, half brothers Kevin G. Riddle, 43, and Reginald A. Riddle, 19, were stopped Oct. 22 near St. Louis. A spokeswoman for the federal Drug Enforcement Administration in Missouri confirmed the men were released after being forced to surrender $11,182 in cash they were carrying.

Under federal law, agents can seize assets from suspects found to be carrying drugs or if sniffer dogs alert the agents to the scent of drugs.

This case gets stranger everyday.

Here's more on the woman that allegedly was threatening to kill Dernell Stenson:

Stenson, who was found slain on Nov. 5, told police that Jennifer Gaddis sent threatening and harassing text messages to his cell phone for nearly six months, records showed.

"U better pray I never see you again, I swear Dernell U R worth a murder charge & that is all you are worth," was one of three text messages left on Stenson's cell phone Oct. 21, according to police.

The messages were sent from an e-mail address Stenson identified to police as his ex-girlfriend's. During a phone interview, Gaddis told Scottsdale investigators that she sent an Oct. 21 message to the outfielder saying she'd be happy if he died, but denied writing any of the three messages Stenson showed police.

It looks like Stenson changed the story he told police as well:

On Oct. 21, Stenson told police that he had not spoken with Gaddis since they broke up nearly a year ago, when he started dating his current girlfriend. During a follow-up interview later in the day, Stenson admitted he had recently seen and called Gaddis. He declined to press charges against her.

What I'm not clear on is did he have to press charges to get the restraining order? And has anyone connected the killers to this woman? That's the real story.

I had not heard of Lee Seung-Yeop, a Korean first baseman and slugger, but he's a free agent and he's in the US trying to drum up interest.

The reason why Lee Seung-yeop is moving fast is to heat up the frozen free agent (FA) market. Lee has been worried because he currently does not have a tangible offer since becoming a FA on November 9 and has visited the U.S. on John Kim’s advice that it would be helpful to visit the teams in person. As he expected, his visit has already drawn the attention of U.S. media and major league teams.

With over 200 free agents, it's a buyer's market. This is a good move on Lee's part to generate attention.

Through Bambino's Curse and Boston Dirt Dogs I found this article about a Terry Francona interview. It's from a couple of weeks ago, but it looks like Francona is going to get the job. I found a couple of quotes impressive.

Francona touched on many of the key points stressed by Red Sox ownership. He admitted a predilection for preparation, which doomed predecessor Grady Little. He credited his year as Ken Macha's bench coach in Oakland for opening his eyes to the workings of a statistically oriented franchise. And he said he doesn't believe in his way or the highway.

Throw in a post-Phillies stint as a scout, and Francona feels his varied perspectives have enlightened him and increased his knowledge of the game.

"I believe in taking a team's strengths and adjusting," Francona said. "If I don't have guys who can run, we won't try to steal bases. I don't think the players should conform to my way of thinking."

A lot of people think sabermetricians don't like the stolen base. The truth is, they don't like the caught stealing. Not running players who can't steal is the adjustment few managers make.

Regarding the use of statistics to inform decisions, Francona feels he managed with an intuitively analytical eye. "As technology grows, different answers do arise," he said. "We believe the same thing here. It's not important how you get the right answer, as long as you put the players in a position to be successful."

I always thought this was Buck Showalter's strength with the Yankees, using players in situations in which there was a high probability of them succeeding. If that's Terry's philosophy as well, he'll do well with the Red Sox.

However, Larry Dierker is getting an interview. I'm surprised Dierker didn't get called in earlier. He'd be a very good fit.

Charles P. Pierce writes in Slate about the media obsession with steroids. My position is evolving on this. On one hand, I'm concerned about illegal drug use. On the other, steriods are a lot less harmful than alcohol or crack, especially if used properly. By penalizing steriod use, it's pushed underground, and trainers, rather than doctors are administering the drugs. Do they know the proper dose? More importantly, do they know how to bring the players off the drug properly? My late mother took steriods to help her breathe during asthma attacks. She did not react well to them, but once she started taking them she had to be brought off of them very slowly to prevent an even worse reaction. I'm afraid abusers take doses that are too large and do not come off them properly.

It could very well be that used properly, steriods are a good way to maintain and build strength. It could very well be that players who use an off-season regimen of steriods and strength training are better hitters and better pitchers, and that the short time period of exposure does not cause long term health problems. And with new drugs being developed all the time, steriods are probably going to get safer to use. So my position is becoming, why not let players who want to use steriods under a doctor's care for a short time period during the off-season? It has to be better and safer than what's going on now.

(Hat tip to Andrew Sullivan for the link.)

Ken Brett has passed away from brain cancer. I remember him as a great hitting pitcher and the guy who set the record (since broken) of playing for the most teams. I believe he did a light beer commerical based on that once. Our thoughts go out to his family and friends. Peter Gammons remembers George's older brother here.

Raul Ibanez has signed with the Seattle Mariners, returning to his original team. I don't quite understand this deal. In one scenario, Cameron goes and either Winn or Ichiro plays center. In another scenario, Winn goes. However, Winn and Cameron both posted 21 win share seasons in 2003 (Ichiro 23, making it a great outfield), whereas Ibanez only accumulated 15. So if Ibanez plays, that would appear to hurt the Mariners. Winn is not eligable for free agency yet, so his salary can be controlled, and he certainly won't be getting over $4 million a year. Unless Bavasi has a great deal for Winn in the works, this is a loss for the Mariners.

The Blue Jays made two moves yesterday to improve their pitching rotation, signing former Jay Pat Hentgen to a one year contract and trading Bobby Kielty to the A's for Ted Lilly. This should improve the Toronto rotation. The Blue Jays won 86 games last year; they have to improve by about 7 games to contend in 2004. Toronto's three and four starters combined for 10 win shares last year, Lilly and Hentgen combined for 20. However, the Jays may lose Kelvim Escobar to free agency, and he contributed 12 WS. If the Jays keep Escobar, they should improve by about three wins. If they lose him, they still improve by one win, and have a much more solid 1-3 in the rotation.

Brian Gunn at Redbird Nation has a good roundup of MVP opinions and other news here.

Here's the voting for the NL MVP. The NL voters had a much clearer sense of value than the AL voters did. One through four, there's deep agreement among the writers who cast ballots.

Barry Bonds won his 6th Most Valuable player award today. I'm waiting to see the voting and the articles, but it was called a landslide.

Update: Here's the article from MLB.com. Bonds received 28 first place votes out of 32. He's now won twice as many MVP's as anyone else, and there were probably a couple of more years he should have won and didn't. Pujols was 2nd, Sheffield 3rd.

Even though I thought Pujols should have won, I can't complain about this. Bonds is the greatest hitter I've ever seen, and to still be the best hitter at his age is truly amazing. Congratulations to Barry Bonds on this remarkable achievement.

The Oakland A's have traded Terrance Long and Ramon Hernandez to SD for Mark Kotsay, according to ESPN. Details are sketchy right now. I wonder if this means they think Jeremy Brown is ready for the majors? He missed a couple of months this year with a broken thumb.

The NL MVP will be announced in a few minutes, and I wanted to come down on the side of Albert Pujols. Bonds has better averages. On any given day when both are on the field, Bonds is the more valuable player. But Bonds can't play a full season anymore and Albert can. That makes the difference to me in this year's vote. Both are great, Bonds is better, but Albert contributes every day.

I'm really getting tired of arguments about A-Rod deserving the MVP. This Jayson Stark article trys to make the case that a player on a losing team doesn't deserve the MVP award:

Of course it does. It tells us most of those voters also asked themselves our second question: Where would those teams have finished without those players?

If you ask that question about Alex Rodriguez, you know the answer. You know his team would have finished in exactly the same place without him as with him.

Last.

Of course, last is a relative term. If the Rangers had been in any other division in baseball, they would not have finished last. They did not have the worst record in the American League. Three teams had worse records. So without A-Rod, the Rangers would have been more like the Devil Rays than like the Angels, and which team would you rather watch?

What I really don't like about Jayson's argument is that if Texas had a good pitching staff, he would be voting for A-Rod. If Texas had the rotation of the A's or the Mariners or the Yankees, they would have contended in the West, and Stark would have no problem voting for A-Rod, even if his stats were exactly the same!

Stark doesn't say it directly, but he wants clutch players to win the MVP award:

OK, here's a little game for you. These are the stats of two top-five finishers in the MVP race after July 1. Which is which?

Player A: 27 HR, 67 RBI, 12 doubles, 4 triples, .642 slugging pct. Player B: 27 HR, 65 RBI, 17 doubles, 2 triples, .661 slugging pct.

Before we reveal the names, which would you vote for if we told you Player A's team was already 21 games out of first place -- and 15½ out of the wild card -- when that stretch began, while Player B's team was only 3½ of first and hanging onto the wild-card lead by 1½?

Well, Player A was Alex Rodriguez. Player B was Boston's David Ortiz. We're not suggesting that Ortiz is a better player than A-Rod, or that he's a clear-cut MVP, or that you ought to write in his name in your local presidential primary.

We're just suggesting there were players other than A-Rod who made a significant impact down the stretch on not just their own numbers, but on the pennant races. And that's what MVP's do.

"Impact down the stretch." So a guy who makes a significant impact April-June, puts his team up 20 games so they can coast can't win the MVP? I seem to remember a Tiger winning the MVP in 1984. All that team had to do down the stretch that year was show up.

The reason players on last place teams, or team with losing records seldom win an MVP is that bad teams seldom have great players. The failure of the Rangers to surround A-Rod with enough talent should not reflect badly on him. He was a deserving MVP candidate.

I have the complete MVP voting here. It's nice to see I was right about David Ortiz; people voted for him at the top or hardly at all. A-Rod was the clear choice in the top four of voting; he's the only player to recieve 20 votes in the top four positions, so everyone agreed he had high MVP standing. That carried the day for him. And even under a 10-9-8.. points scheme A-Rod still would have won.

Update: The above voting info had Carlos Lee's votes wrong. It has been corrected as of Tuesday morning.

Alex Rodriguez won the AL MVP award today, after a number of deserving years in which he didn't win the award. I'm waiting to see a full tally of the vote. Rodriguez received six first place votes, more than any other candidate. Carlos Delgado was 2nd and received five first place votes, the same as Jorge Posada. It should be noted that win shares had Rodriguez and Delgado tied for first in the AL; my guess is that the tie-break was Alex playing a tougher defensive position.

Update: The above link now has a more a detailed (but not complete) list of the voting. Some interesting notes:

• It's a good thing there is a bonus for first place votes. Only 11 voters had A-Rod first or second. Thirteen had Delgado first or second.


• David Ortiz is an interesting case. He had more 1st, 2nd and 3rd place votes than Stewart, but Stewart had a higher point total. I guess you either voted for Ortiz high or not at all.


• Everyone seemed to have his own idea who should be MVP. There was not consensus winner, and looking at the small sample of the vote, there wasn't even a clear consensus 2nd choice.

I can't wait to get a hold of the full vote to see what else we can glean from it.

The Asian migration to the major leagues continues. Kaz Matsui has announced he wants to play in the western major leagues, and is a free agent able to sign with the highest bidder.

The 5-foot-9 Kazuo Matsui batted .305 with 33 homers, 84 RBI and 179 hits this year for the Lions. He spent several weeks mulling whether to remain in Japan or go to the majors.

``It was a tough decision to make,'' he said. ``I wondered whether I should play at home or go overseas.''

He traveled to New York after the season to watch a playoff game between the Red Sox and Yankees and returned to Japan saying he was impressed with the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium.

I've had friends who have attended baseball games in Japan. The crowds are very polite, and root for all players on both teams. Maybe US crowds appeal to his competitive spirit?

Whichever team lands Kaz Matsui will be getting a known quantity that can step right in for the organization. It one of the benefits of the Japanese-MLB relationship, that players come here in their prime ready to contribute.

The AL MVP will be announced today. It's going to be a close vote today, as it has been reported that 10 different players have received first place votes. The voting system used by the baseball writers for their awards is a Borda count, which has been shown to be the fairest system of voting available. Borda counts are extremely good at picking the consensus favorite when there are multiple candidates. In cases like this year, you get a consensus 2nd choice, rather than a winner with a low percentage plurality. Based on that, I think A-Rod is going to win (finally). While you can make any number of arguments against him being #1 (he didn't play for a winner, blah, blah blah), there is not excuse for his not being in the top two. We'll see for sure this afternoon, but a long time injustice may finally be rectified.

Rich Lederer turns the tables on Alex Belth of Bronx Banter and interviews him for Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat.

It looks like Bill Singer will be taking his lounge act somewhere else. The Daily News reports that he will be fired.

In the immediate aftermath of the incident in Phoenix, Singer met privately with Duquette and offered his explanation for the incident, saying that he had been on a low-carbohydrate diet, which caused him to suffer a chemical imbalance in conjunction with drinking alcohol.

"That didn't wash with Jim and it sure as hell won't wash with Fred," a Mets source said in reference to Mets owner Fred Wilpon. "Plain and simple, there's no excuse for that kind of behavior, and there's no saving this guy."

I guess this means the Mets job is open again. I'm still available. :-)

We're starting to see some investigation by the media into Dernell Stenson's death. Lisa Olson of the NY Daily News (yes, that Lisa Olson) talks to Stenson's agent:

As targets go, Stenson hardly fit the profile. The bars and restaurants that orbit the Phoenix suburbs are filled with athletes and celebrities who sit in the open-aired patios and flash wads of cash. So how is it that Stenson, a quiet, humble outfielder with the Cincinnati Reds who was playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League, became the murder victim in a case that grows more complicated by the hour?

Officially, police are calling Stenson's death a random crime that began as a robbery and kidnapping and ended with Stenson, 25, being shot, execution-style, in a dreary residential area of Chandler and run over with his own vehicle. The whodunnit is much more complex.

"My gut and common sense tells me this was not purely a random act of violence," says Stanley King, Stenson's New Jersey-based agent.

According to Olson's report, Dernell was being stalked:

Stenson's agent, family members and authorities told the Daily News they are providing investigators with information that Stenson was being stalked by an Indianapolis woman who has repeatedly claimed to be pregnant with his child. Police have already gone to Indianapolis to look into that claim and to follow other leads.

Thomas Stenson says his brother attempted to take out an order of protection in Scottsdale against the woman shortly before he was killed "but the police did not believe him."

I remember a case in Somerville, MA a while back where a judge refused to issue a restraining order to a woman and was very condenscending to that woman. She was later killed by person she wanted restrained (if anyone remembers the judge or can find the story, let me know). I believe the judge lost his job over that.

A witness who saw what happened after the gun shots goes on to describe a scene that sounds more like the venting of anger than a crime gone wrong:

After hearing what he described as subsequent "bams," Rodrigo Gutierrez, 17, peered through his aunt's gated windows around 1:45 a.m. and witnessed what he describes as a clip out of Rambo.

"They cut him loose," says Gutierrez. "Then, and I swear it makes me want to puke, they backed up and went over him with the right rear tire."

I'm more sure than ever that we don't know the whole story yet.

Update: Mike Malloy remembers the judge and sent this link about the story.

Barry Bonds is in the news twice today. On the business side of things, he's withdrawn from the MLBPA group licensing agreement, and will negotiate these on his own.

Bonds informed the union that he would not be signing the organization's group licensing agreement next year and would instead pursue licensing opportunities on his own.

Players usually sign the group licensing agreement, which allows companies that obtain MLBPA licenses the right to use players' names and likenesses on their products. In exchange for their rights, the players get a percentage of the sale of the products such as trading cards and video games.

The signing of the agreement is usually a formality. In fact, Bonds will become the first union member in the 30-year history of the licensing program not to sign it, said Judy Heeter, director of business affairs and licensing for the MLBPA.

This is a pretty major deal, and a slap in the face to the union. The MLBPA has always been about the the big contract players; to have one of the best abandon them like that does not bode well for that licensing money to continue to flow in. If Bonds starts landing big deals, how long before A-Rod and Sosa and the other big stars follow suit? I'd be surprised if the union didn't exert a lot of pressure to get Bonds back in the fold.

The second story involves Bonds' personal trainer, Greg Anderson. Anderson has been indentified as the target of the probe into THG. Bonds is going to testify, and it will be interesting to see if Barry is implicated in using THG.

Christian Ruzich has started a new blog to track MLB transactions called The Transaction Guy. This is going to be an invaluable resource.

The Giants have traded Joe Nathan to the Minnesota Twins for A.J. Pierzynski. I think this is a fine trade. Pierzynski is a good catcher, and good hitter for a catcher, and still young enough to make a difference. Nathan had a solid to great year in 2003, and should fit right into the Twins bullpen. For the Twins, it clears both salary and a spot for Joe Mauer, who's likely to be one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The Twins also get two minor league pitchers who can strike people out, even though they walk too many for my taste.

Billy Beane gets a lot of press, but I think Terry Ryan deserves some credit. It's taken him a long time to get the Twins back to winning, but he appears to have drafted well and traded well along the way, building a fine minor league system. This trade shows that he's not afraid to trade a good veteran to take a chance on a rookie, and the way the Twins will keep winning is by always having younger, cheaper stars on the rise to take the place of someone eligible for arbitration or free agency. No one's written a book about Ryan, but it's basically the same philosophy the A's have.

According to this report on ESPN.com, one of the four men arrested in connection with the death of Dernell Stenson was in the witness protection program.

The suspect, identified as Robert Lee Maye, has disappeared after posting bail and being charged with hindering the Stenson murder investigation. Federal authorities are trying to locate him.

The man identified by police as Maye testified for the prosecution in a case against key members of a Chicago gang, top-level investigators, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Republic.

I keep thinking there is more to this case than meets the eye. This does nothing to allay that feeling.

It looks like the Mets and Mike Piazza are getting on the same page in terms of a trade. I think both are realizing that neither is going to win with the other right now. This is the right move the Mets to make, let Piazza go, let him try to win with a contender and then use the money saved to build the club over the next couple of years.

I have to comment about one paragraph in the article, however:

If that happens, it will be up to the Mets to decide whether to trade the best hitter they've ever had, a certain Hall of Famer.

Best hitter the Mets ever had? I remember a young man named Darryl Strawberry who was pretty good. In the six years Piazza has been with the Mets he's posted 123 wins shares, 101 on offense. In his first six years with the Mets, Strawberry posted 151 wins shares, 136 on offense.

I was just thinking about the range model, and it strikes me that the base-out situation may be much more important than the handedness of pitchers or batters. I'll have to check that out.

Peter Gammons likes the new Bill James Handbook, replacing the old one that STATS, Inc. used to publish. You can purchase a copy here.

I'm received a number of comments on the probabilistic model of range indicating that people think this system will help answer the question, "How much do pitchers contribute to the hits allowed against them?" One way of looking at this is to look at expected DER. If the expected DER is high, then the pitchers are inducing balls in play that are easy to field. If low, the opposite is true. Here's the team chart sorted on expected DER:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Athletics	3122.8	0.714	3112.0	0.712	-0.00247
Mariners	3082.7	0.712	3120.0	0.720	0.00861
Dodgers	2847.6	0.708	2828.0	0.703	-0.00487
Giants	3068.8	0.704	3091.0	0.709	0.00509
Phillies	3079.9	0.703	3073.0	0.701	-0.00158
White Sox	3006.7	0.703	3018.0	0.705	0.00263
Cardinals	3245.3	0.702	3229.0	0.698	-0.00353
Devil Rays	3179.2	0.701	3204.0	0.707	0.00547
Angels	3093.0	0.698	3108.0	0.702	0.00340
Astros	2955.6	0.698	2981.0	0.704	0.00600
Mets	3140.2	0.697	3099.0	0.688	-0.00915
Padres	3016.6	0.696	3009.0	0.695	-0.00174
Diamondbacks	2907.1	0.694	2888.0	0.689	-0.00455
Twins	3200.2	0.694	3226.0	0.699	0.00560
Marlins	3000.8	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00041
Tigers	3324.2	0.692	3283.0	0.683	-0.00857
Pirates	3196.9	0.691	3196.0	0.691	-0.00019
Expos	3057.3	0.691	3066.0	0.693	0.00197
Indians	3155.4	0.690	3190.0	0.698	0.00756
Cubs	2753.7	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00133
Royals	3225.4	0.689	3231.0	0.690	0.00119
Braves	3108.9	0.688	3150.0	0.697	0.00909
Orioles	3154.1	0.688	3132.0	0.683	-0.00482
Yankees	3110.6	0.688	3074.0	0.679	-0.00809
Reds	3193.5	0.688	3195.0	0.688	0.00032
Red Sox	3084.2	0.685	3076.0	0.684	-0.00183
Rockies	3190.6	0.684	3163.0	0.678	-0.00593
Brewers	3125.5	0.684	3123.0	0.683	-0.00054
Blue Jays	3092.0	0.678	3106.0	0.681	0.00306
Rangers	3070.3	0.678	3060.0	0.675	-0.00227

As you can see, the pitchers who gave their defense the easiest balls to field belonged to the staff of the Oakland A's. And the Rangers ranking at the bottom show just how bad that pitching staff was. The next step will be to apply this to individual pitchers.

Update: Here's a table of all pitchers with at least 100 balls put in play against them (fieldable balls only). Find your favorite pitcher and see how he did. Notice Gagne was higher than Schmidt, and Schmidt was much higher than Prior.

Update: Looks like I can't put the whole pitcher's table in the entry, so I'm redoing it with all pitchers who have had 200 balls put into play against them. There will be another update when that's done.

Update: Okay, the final table is in place below.

Players, coaches and managers are trying to create a Dernell Stenson award to be given to a player in the Arizona Fall League each year.

On the field during this Fall League season, Stenson was among the league leaders in batting average, so one possibility would be to give the Dernell Stenson Award to the AFL batting champion each year. It would serve as a wonderful testament to what Stenson accomplished on the field, and what direction his career was heading.

But after talking to his teammates, and his AFL manager Rick Burleson, that didn't sound like enough. As much of a talent as Stenson was on the field, his impact off the field is what truly needs to be remembered.

"The Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award, going to someone who plays hard every day, who does his job without complaint," Burleson said. "That tells more about the individual Dernell was than a batting title award. You're emulating a guy like Dernell, a soft-spoken, hard-nosed player who played the game the way it's supposed to be played."

Reds pitching prospect Joe Valentine echoed those sentiments. He played with Stenson for only a short amount of time, but that time has left an indelible mark on Valentine.

"He was always early and the last to leave," Valentine said. "He played the game the way it was meant to be played. That's the mark he's left on me and probably everybody he's ever played with. It definitely would be a fitting as a tribute to him."

Stenson seems to be quite loved by his fellow players. I think the sportsmanship award would indeed be a fitting memorial.

More than five percent of major league players tested this year came up positive for steriods, so testing will continue next year:

But on Thursday, the results came back and proved what many in baseball assumed and what former MVPs Jose Canseco and Ken Caminiti had already admitted.

"Hopefully, this will, over time, allow us to completely eradicate the use of performance enhancement substances in baseball," commissioner Bud Selig said.

MLB said of 1,438 anonymous tests this season, between 5 and 7 percent were positive.

My first reaction is, this seems to be a long way from the 50% Sports Illustrated claimed Ken Caminiti told them. Of course, as THG, the testers are always going to be playing catchup with the drug users, especially as designer drugs become more and more common.

I still think this is a bit of an overblown issue. We'll see if usage declines over time. My guess is that players who do abuse steriods will find ways to cover their tracks.

Eric Gagne has won the Cy Young award in a landslide. He garnered 28 of the 32 first place votes. Interestingly, it looks like two voters totally left him off the ballot. I guess they didn't feel that a closer should be able to win the award. It's also good to see Ortiz finish so far back; seems that wins (in the NL at least) are counting less than a good ERA these days.

Tom of Shallow Center wants to see Curt Schilling back in the city of brotherly love.

Wade already has parted with one prize pitching prospect this off-season in Taylor Buchholz, who was dealt to the Astros in exchange for Billy Wagner. I understand his reluctance to part with Myers, whom the D'backs are said to like; Myers has the look of a stud. But there aren't many Schillings floating around, and the Phillies are no longer rebuilding -- their time to win is now, not in five years. And Schilling would greatly increase their chances.

Plus, watching him and Larry Bowa try to coexist would be absolutely priceless.

Schilling seems to be the hot commodity right now. He's not a long term solution, however, and he is pricey. It will be interesting to see how much the DBacks can get for him.

Tango Tiger is keeping a link to all my posts on probabilistic range at Baseball Primer. There's a discussion there as well.

Normally, I don't link to blogs outside the baseball world, but this is a sports blog from Iraq. Stop by and wish him well.

And Jeff Jarvis has an observation about the blog that does relate directly to baseball. :-)

I found the link through Instapundit. Bill Cimino thinks that Instapundit sucks, and makes an interesting case.

Consider this post:

GEORGE SOROS AND ANTISEMITISM: The New York Daily News says that Soros is twisting history.

What the hell is that? That's the whole post! Sure he linked to some article about this George Soros guy but who has time to read it? That not only sucks but it's boring. I almost fell asleep in the 3 1/2 seconds it took me to read it. And there's plenty more just like that.

I find lately that Instapundit is offering a lot less puditry than he used to. I assume it has to do with his job intruding on his ability to post. That's perfectly understandable. He's not paid for blogging, and earning a living has to come first. I just hope it doesn't get to the point where Bart Simpson is writing "I no longer want my Instapundit" on the blackboard.

Baseball will award the NL Cy Young trophy later today. It's a tough choice for voters, with Gagne, Schmidt and Prior all deserving of the award. Gagne earned 25 wins shares, while Schmidt, Prior and Livan Hernandez all earned 22. No one talks about Livan for Cy Young, probably due to his 3.20 ERA and the fact that he didn't pitch well down the stretch.

I actually like Gagne for the award this year. Dennis Eckersley won the award in 1992 (and it wasn't Eck's best year) and Gagne's 2003 is better than Eck's 1992. One thing Eck had working for him that year is that it was difficult to pick a clear winner from the starters. The guys with great ERA's didn't win 20 games, and the guys who won 20 games didn't have great ERAs. The same thing may work for Gagne this year. Russ Ortiz is the only 20 game winner, but he's not in the top 10 in ERA. The best win total among the leaders in ERA is 18. Gagne deserves the award, and while I'm not crazy about a reliever getting it, he had an amazing season. We'll see this afternoon if the voters agree.

Like Bill James did with defensive win shares, I'm working top down. I started with overall team range, looking at DER compared to predicted DER. Now, I'm breaking each team down by position, so you'll be able to see where each organization has a weakness in range. There are 30 charts below, one for each team:

The votes are in, and Pena and McKeon win in landslides. As I wrote earlier, I thought they were good candidates, but I don't think they were landslide candidates. I wonder who gave Trammell the one third place vote? That's probably the most outrageous thing on any ballot.

I'm surprised that Dusty Baker didn't get more first place votes, although he was the consensus 2nd choice. As I wrote before, I thought the Cubs move from poor to playoffs was just as impressive as the Marlins.

Nonetheless, congrats to Tony Pena and Jack McKeon. It was a great debut year for the Royals skipper, and a nice honor for the veteran of the field, dugout and front office. Good luck next year!

This always reminds me of the old Bill Murray Academy Awards predictions for best supporting actor and actress: Who really cares? :-) It really seems to be the award to the manager whose team exceeded expectations the most, and the odds on favorites are Jack McKeon and Tony Pena. And fine choices they are. But other candidates should not be dismissed lightly.

I actually like Ron Gardenhire of the Twins. He lost David Ortiz and Eric Milton and still managed to win a division. Joe Torre had the worst Yankees team of his tenure in terms of depth, had injuries to Jeter, Williams, Giambi and Johnson to deal with, no bullpen, and still managed to guide the team to the most wins in the majors.

In the NL, Bobby Cox, like Torre, had probably the worst team he's had his the Braves started their run in 1991. But the offense was brilliant, and the pitching staff wasn't as bad as expected. You have to give Bobby a lot of credit for that. Dusty Baker's transformation of the Cubs into winners is every bit as impressive and Jack McKeon's transformation of the Marlins. And Frank Robinson once again did a terrific job without a lot of support.

I think the two favorites will win by big margins, but I don't believe those margins are deserved.

Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat has an interview with Lee Sinins, the creator of the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. (Aplologies for not posting this sooner.)

Part II of Michael Humphreys' DRA article is up on Baseball Primer. I have just scanned it at this point, but it looks very interesting, and there are lots of good comments. I'll be commenting more when I've read the post thoroughly.

Peter Kay of SI For Kids sends me this link to an amusing cartoon.

I made the periodic table of bloggers! Looks like I occupy the same spot as Hafnium.

Roy Halladay won the AL Cy Young award today. He won the award easily, garnering 26 of the 28 first place votes. It's interesting that he won by such a wide margin; Hudson, Loaiza and Halladay all earned 23 win shares and Hudson and Loaiza had better ERAs. It seems the win column is still an important component in the voters minds. I would have thought the vote would have been closer, but he is a deserving winner.

Two of the four suspects arrested in the death of Dernell Stenson have now been charged with murder. Police believe the theft of Stenson's SUV was the motive for the killing.

Mark Olson writes on the NL Rookie of the Year voting:

TO THE PEOPLE WHO VOTE !!!!! YOU PEOPLE HAVE MANAGED TO WRECK BASEBALL FOR ME, ONCE AND FOR ALL !!!!! SCOTT P. FROM THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS GOT THE SHAFT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SCREWED !!!!!!!!!UNBELIEVABLE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, I COULD CARE LESS WHO THIS CONCERNS OR WHO IS AT FAULT, GET A LIFE !!!!!!!!!! YOU GUYS SHOULD GET AWAY FROM BASEBALL, YOU DON'T NO A THING !!! NO WONDER SMALL MARKET TEAMS STRUGGLE, DID YOU EVEN LOOK AT HIS STATS ?? THIS WAS A NO BRAINER !!! WOW !!!! IS ALL I CAN SAY....... WHERE IS THE JUSTICE !!!!! NICE JOB OF PROMOTING BASEBALLS FUTURE STARS

As you can see by the stuck shift lock key, Mr. Olson is angry. And he has a point. Podsednik did garner more win shares than either Webb or Willis. The funny thing is he would have won easily in the AL, so I guess it's Selig's fault for moving the Brewers to the senior circuit. :-)

Another thing that might have worked against Scott Podsednick is his age. He is an old rooke, age 27. Of the 114 Rookie of the Year honorees, only 8 have been 27 or older. Two of them were Japanese players, and one other was Jackie Robinson, who for obvious reasons didn't have a chance to earn the award when he was young. So you have an old rookie, who is having a year out of line with his minor league career, and two young sharp pitchers to choose from. I would have voted for Webb, but I understand the vote for Willis. They are up and coming stars. We've probably seen the best Podsednik has to offer, unfortunately.

Angel Berroa and Dontrelle Willis each took home Rookie of the Year honors today.

Berroa received 12 first place votes and Matsui received 10, the final score being Berroa 88, Matsui 84. So much for an East Coast bias in the voting. Since 1996, a period in which the Yankees have gone to the playoffs every year, the World Series six times and won four of them, they have won two major awards (ROY, Cy Young, MVP); Jeter's ROY in 1996 and Clemens' Cy Young in 2001. Matsui had more win shares than Berrora; I assume some voters got tired of giving the award to a Japanese verteran every year.

Webb was a better pitcher than Willis this year, although Willis certainly captured the imagination of the fans and was a big part of the Florida drive to the pennant. My feeling is that in the long run, I'd rather have Webb on my team.

It's awards week in Major League Baseball. Rookie of the Year is due out today. You can see who the experts at ESPN would have chosen here. I like Webb in the NL, Matsui in the AL.

I'm not the only one working on new defensive analysis. Michael Humphreys is publishing on Baseball Primer his Defensive Regression Analysis system. It looks very promising.

More details are emerging. It appears Stenson was kidnapped as part of a robbery attempt and was shot trying to escape. There are now four suspects in custody, and they may be linked to another killing that happened prior to Stenson's death.

The final calculation of range is in. What team exceeded expectations more than any other? The Braves:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Braves	3108.9	0.688	3150.0	0.697	0.00909
Mariners	3082.7	0.712	3120.0	0.720	0.00861
Indians	3155.4	0.690	3190.0	0.698	0.00756
Astros	2955.6	0.698	2981.0	0.704	0.00600
Twins	3200.2	0.694	3226.0	0.699	0.00560
Devil Rays	3179.2	0.701	3204.0	0.707	0.00547
Giants	3068.8	0.704	3091.0	0.709	0.00509
Angels	3093.0	0.698	3108.0	0.702	0.00340
Blue Jays	3092.0	0.678	3106.0	0.681	0.00306
White Sox	3006.7	0.703	3018.0	0.705	0.00263
Expos	3057.3	0.691	3066.0	0.693	0.00197
Cubs	2753.7	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00133
Royals	3225.4	0.689	3231.0	0.690	0.00119
Reds	3193.5	0.688	3195.0	0.688	0.00032
Pirates	3196.9	0.691	3196.0	0.691	-0.00019
Marlins	3000.8	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00041
Brewers	3125.5	0.684	3123.0	0.683	-0.00054
Phillies	3079.9	0.703	3073.0	0.701	-0.00158
Padres	3016.6	0.696	3009.0	0.695	-0.00174
Red Sox	3084.2	0.685	3076.0	0.684	-0.00183
Rangers	3070.3	0.678	3060.0	0.675	-0.00227
Athletics	3122.8	0.714	3112.0	0.712	-0.00247
Cardinals	3245.3	0.702	3229.0	0.698	-0.00353
Diamondbacks	2907.1	0.694	2888.0	0.689	-0.00455
Orioles	3154.1	0.688	3132.0	0.683	-0.00482
Dodgers	2847.6	0.708	2828.0	0.703	-0.00487
Rockies	3190.6	0.684	3163.0	0.678	-0.00593
Yankees	3110.6	0.688	3074.0	0.679	-0.00809
Tigers	3324.2	0.692	3283.0	0.683	-0.00857
Mets	3140.2	0.697	3099.0	0.688	-0.00915

And although it seemed like the Rangers were the worst defensive team in terms of actual DER, the Mets acutally fell short of expectations by the most.

Now that I'm fairly confident of the model, time to start looking at team positions to see where the weak spots are showing.

Police have arrested a third suspect in the death of Dernell Stenson. However, details about exactly what happened and why remain sketchy at this point.

The following table is presented to summarize the previous posts using different parameters to calculate range (batted ball, with stadium, with pitcher, with batter, both batter and pitcher). It compares the difference between actual DER and expected DER:

Team	Batted Ball Parameters	Batted Ball with Stadium	Batted Ball with Pitcher's Hand	Batted Ball with Batter's Side	With both Pitcher's Hand and Batter's Side
Angels	0.00877	0.00360	0.00824	0.00778	0.00727
Astros	0.00480	0.00514	0.00438	0.00485	0.00442
Athletics	-0.00302	-0.00250	-0.00141	-0.00312	-0.00160
Blue Jays	-0.00629	0.00032	-0.00638	-0.00535	-0.00544
Braves	0.00717	0.00881	0.00705	0.00681	0.00694
Brewers	0.00404	-0.00519	0.00351	0.00170	0.00193
Cardinals	0.01240	0.00163	0.01219	0.01108	0.01062
Cubs	0.00136	0.00234	0.00043	0.00125	0.00014
Devil Rays	-0.00213	0.00665	-0.00219	-0.00182	-0.00222
Diamondbacks	-0.01476	-0.00343	-0.01483	-0.01394	-0.01437
Dodgers	0.00753	-0.00470	0.00823	0.00665	0.00717
Expos	0.00684	0.00100	0.00651	0.00721	0.00693
Giants	-0.00335	0.00599	-0.00303	-0.00276	-0.00253
Indians	-0.00121	0.00247	-0.00023	-0.00192	-0.00042
Mariners	0.01574	0.01135	0.01575	0.01771	0.01778
Marlins	0.00124	-0.00045	0.00067	-0.00029	-0.00101
Mets	-0.00604	-0.00855	-0.00654	-0.00703	-0.00785
Orioles	-0.00086	-0.00465	-0.00057	0.00001	0.00033
Padres	0.00788	-0.00323	0.00778	0.00817	0.00766
Phillies	0.01350	-0.00022	0.01332	0.01337	0.01303
Pirates	-0.01363	-0.00163	-0.01335	-0.01280	-0.01251
Rangers	-0.01275	-0.00152	-0.01280	-0.01216	-0.01269
Red Sox	-0.01678	-0.00129	-0.01720	-0.01585	-0.01620
Reds	0.00610	-0.00192	0.00607	0.00603	0.00621
Rockies	0.00008	-0.00284	-0.00048	0.00129	0.00091
Royals	0.00205	0.00027	0.00239	0.00252	0.00280
Tigers	-0.00575	-0.01006	-0.00561	-0.00608	-0.00582
Twins	-0.00375	0.01121	-0.00352	-0.00428	-0.00382
White Sox	0.00929	0.00259	0.00948	0.00911	0.00936
Yankees	-0.01599	-0.01013	-0.01545	-0.01564	-0.01469

While this table shows that parks in general have a much bigger effect than handedness, batting or pitching side really matters for certain teams. So in my final model, I'm going to build in everything. So we're going to look at the probability of an out given the batted ball type, direction and speed, the stadium, the handedness of the pitcher and the handedness of the batter.

The previous post looked at the effect of the pitcher's handedness on the probablistic range calculation. We now look at how the handedness of the batter effects that calculation.

The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the handedness of the batter. I basically substituted batting side for throwing hand in this calculation. The results:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3043.3	0.703	3120.0	0.720	0.01771
Phillies	3014.4	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01337
Cardinals	3177.7	0.687	3229.0	0.698	0.01108
White Sox	2979.0	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00911
Padres	2973.6	0.686	3009.0	0.695	0.00817
Angels	3073.6	0.694	3108.0	0.702	0.00778
Expos	3034.1	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00721
Braves	3119.2	0.691	3150.0	0.697	0.00681
Dodgers	2801.2	0.696	2828.0	0.703	0.00665
Reds	3167.0	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00603
Astros	2960.4	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00485
Royals	3219.2	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00252
Brewers	3115.2	0.682	3123.0	0.683	0.00170
Rockies	3157.0	0.677	3163.0	0.678	0.00129
Cubs	2754.0	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00125
Orioles	3132.0	0.683	3132.0	0.683	0.00001
Marlins	3000.3	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00029
Devil Rays	3212.3	0.708	3204.0	0.707	-0.00182
Indians	3198.8	0.700	3190.0	0.698	-0.00192
Giants	3103.0	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00276
Athletics	3125.6	0.715	3112.0	0.712	-0.00312
Twins	3245.7	0.704	3226.0	0.699	-0.00428
Blue Jays	3130.4	0.686	3106.0	0.681	-0.00535
Tigers	3312.2	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00608
Mets	3130.7	0.695	3099.0	0.688	-0.00703
Rangers	3115.1	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01216
Pirates	3255.2	0.704	3196.0	0.691	-0.01280
Diamondbacks	2946.4	0.703	2888.0	0.689	-0.01394
Yankees	3144.7	0.695	3074.0	0.679	-0.01564
Red Sox	3147.3	0.699	3076.0	0.684	-0.01585

Again, like throwning hand, batting side doesn't make a big difference in order of team compared to just using the batted ball parameters. It also seems that the boost the Dodgers and Athletics got from looking at the handedness of the pitchers is balanced by the decline when you look at the handedness of the opposing batters. To check this, I ran the calculation using both pitcher and batter handedness:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3043.0	0.703	3120.0	0.720	0.01778
Phillies	3015.9	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01303
Cardinals	3179.9	0.688	3229.0	0.698	0.01062
White Sox	2977.9	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00936
Padres	2975.8	0.687	3009.0	0.695	0.00766
Angels	3075.8	0.694	3108.0	0.702	0.00727
Dodgers	2799.2	0.696	2828.0	0.703	0.00717
Braves	3118.6	0.690	3150.0	0.697	0.00694
Expos	3035.3	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00693
Reds	3166.2	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00621
Astros	2962.3	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00442
Royals	3217.9	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00280
Brewers	3114.2	0.681	3123.0	0.683	0.00193
Rockies	3158.7	0.677	3163.0	0.678	0.00091
Orioles	3130.5	0.683	3132.0	0.683	0.00033
Cubs	2758.4	0.690	2759.0	0.691	0.00014
Indians	3191.9	0.698	3190.0	0.698	-0.00042
Marlins	3003.4	0.693	2999.0	0.692	-0.00101
Athletics	3119.0	0.713	3112.0	0.712	-0.00160
Devil Rays	3214.1	0.709	3204.0	0.707	-0.00222
Giants	3102.0	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00253
Twins	3243.6	0.703	3226.0	0.699	-0.00382
Blue Jays	3130.8	0.687	3106.0	0.681	-0.00544
Tigers	3311.0	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00582
Mets	3134.4	0.695	3099.0	0.688	-0.00785
Pirates	3253.9	0.704	3196.0	0.691	-0.01251
Rangers	3117.5	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01269
Diamondbacks	2948.2	0.704	2888.0	0.689	-0.01437
Yankees	3140.4	0.694	3074.0	0.679	-0.01469
Red Sox	3148.9	0.700	3076.0	0.684	-0.01620

So they don't cancel each other out. I'll summarize the results so far in my next post.

Recently, I looked at the effects of ball parks on range. I was next going to see what ballparks were most different from normal, but I have quite figured out the correct way to do that yet. Instead, I'm looking at handedness today. We'l start out with the handedness of the pitchers.

The following table calculates expected DER based on the batted ball type, direction, speed and the throwing hand of the pitcher. I basically substituted throwing hand for ballpark in this calculation. The results:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3051.8	0.705	3120.0	0.720	0.01575
Phillies	3014.6	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01332
Cardinals	3172.6	0.686	3229.0	0.698	0.01219
White Sox	2977.4	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00948
Angels	3071.5	0.693	3108.0	0.702	0.00824
Dodgers	2794.9	0.695	2828.0	0.703	0.00823
Padres	2975.3	0.687	3009.0	0.695	0.00778
Braves	3118.2	0.690	3150.0	0.697	0.00705
Expos	3037.2	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00651
Reds	3166.8	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00607
Astros	2962.4	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00438
Brewers	3107.0	0.680	3123.0	0.683	0.00351
Royals	3219.8	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00239
Marlins	2996.1	0.691	2999.0	0.692	0.00067
Cubs	2757.3	0.690	2759.0	0.691	0.00043
Indians	3191.1	0.698	3190.0	0.698	-0.00023
Rockies	3165.3	0.679	3163.0	0.678	-0.00048
Orioles	3134.6	0.684	3132.0	0.683	-0.00057
Athletics	3118.2	0.713	3112.0	0.712	-0.00141
Devil Rays	3213.9	0.709	3204.0	0.707	-0.00219
Giants	3104.2	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00303
Twins	3242.3	0.703	3226.0	0.699	-0.00352
Tigers	3309.9	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00561
Blue Jays	3135.1	0.688	3106.0	0.681	-0.00638
Mets	3128.5	0.694	3099.0	0.688	-0.00654
Rangers	3118.0	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01280
Pirates	3257.8	0.704	3196.0	0.691	-0.01335
Diamondbacks	2950.1	0.704	2888.0	0.689	-0.01483
Yankees	3143.9	0.695	3074.0	0.679	-0.01545
Red Sox	3153.4	0.701	3076.0	0.684	-0.01720

If you compare the above table to my original calculation (based on the three batted ball features), you see very little difference in the ordering of the teams. Unlike park effects, the handedness of the pitchers have very little to do with the team's DER. Two teams it seems to help are the Dodgers and Athletics, although at the moment I have no speculation why.

Here's the latest on the Stenson case. Seems both his hands and feet were bound before he was shot. The more I hear about this case the more it seems like more than a car jacking to me.

The Mariners have hired Bill Bavasi to serve as their general manager. The authors over at U.S.S. Mariner are not happy about it. Start here and keep working backward in time.

Pat Gillick does not buy into Billy Beane's approach to the game. I don't quite understand this, as Gillick does intuitively what Beane does with a computer. But I think that rejection of the Beane method influenced Gillick, and he went with a more traditional GM. I was never impressed with the Angels under Bavasi, so I see no reason to be impressed with him in Seattle. And this quote makes me feel no better:

He cites San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean as a model, admiring Sabean's ability to carefully control the makeup of the clubhouse. Sabean values good people and hard workers but also keeps players with "enough of a mean streak" -- a trait some have said is missing in Seattle.

I admire Sabean because he's able to keep good role players around his two superstars. Mean streaks are well and good, but having a player with a .500 OBA is much better.

Avkash Patel at the raindrops has a quite interesting post on which batters are best at wearing out pitchers. Nice statisitical work on his part.

It appears that the two Riddles were related. This may turn out to be a very interesting case.

Eric McErlain of Off Wing Opinion posts about the Mets looking to hire a statistical analyst and very nicely suggests that I should get the job. :-)

I think this is an important move for the Mets. They realize there is a better way of evaluating talent, and that they might be able to win with a smaller payroll. It will be interesting to see who they hire.

Lee Mazzilli has been hired to manage the Baltimore Orioles:

Before that, Mazzilli managed for three years in the Yankees' farm system. He played for five major league teams over 14 seasons, including a stint with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he became friends with Mike Flanagan, currently Baltimore's vice president of baseball operations.

Flanagan and Orioles vice president Jim Beattie interviewed eight candidates to replace Mike Hargrove, who was fired after four straight losing seasons.

After emerging from his interview with Beattie and Flanagan last week, Mazzilli referred to the Orioles as "us" while speaking to reporters. He quickly corrected himself -- but the gaffe proved to be prophetic.

"This is something I've wanted for a very long time," Mazzilli said at the time. "You put your apprenticeship in, you pay your dues. Now is the time to do it."

As a player, Mazzilli wasn't a great hitter, but he was very good at getting on base. He finished with a .259 BA, but also had a .359 OBA. If he manages like he plays, he'll likely stress plate discipline with his hitters. Mazzilli also walked more than he struck out as a player (642 BB, 627 K). I'll be interested to see what he says at the news conference.

Police have made an arrest in the death of Dernell Stenson.

Chandler police late Thursday arrested a 19-year-old man in the death of an outfielder with the Cincinnati Reds baseball team.

Reginald A. Riddle, of Harvey, Ill., was being held on suspicion of murder, kidnapping and armed robbery in the killing of Dernell Stenson, 25.

Stenson, who played in 37 games with the Reds last season, was shot and run over with his own car before authorities discovered his body about 1:45 a.m. Wednesday in the road in the 2200 block of West Butler Drive in Chandler. Stenson was in the Valley playing for the Arizona Fall League's Scottsdale Scorpions.

Police also were searching for 20-year-old David Griffith in the murder.

The police also arrested a man with the last name of Riddle who was found driving Stenson's car, but he appears to be unrelated to the the murder suspect.

Kevin G. Riddle, 43, was arrested about two hours after the slaying. Authorities wouldn't say whether the two Riddles are related. Kevin Riddle told investigators the Isuzu had been abandoned in a Mesa apartment parking lot. Court records offered this account by Kevin Riddle:

He described himself as transient and said he was looking for a place to sleep when he walked into the Off Broadway Apartment parking lot at 546 S. Country Club Drive. He was huddled behind an air-conditioning unit when he heard tires screeching in the parking lot. He saw two occupants from a pickup take things from the Isuzu. After they drove off in the pickup, Kevin Riddle took the Isuzu and drove from the lot.

Although no one is saying it at this time, it sounds like a car jacking:

Why Stenson was in the area of Chandler Boulevard and Dobson Road late at night was unclear. Teammates reported seeing him at Sugar Daddy's, a Scottsdale bar, about 11:30 Tuesday night.

Stenson lived in Winfield Place Condominiums in the 7300 block of East Chaparral, about two miles from Scottsdale Stadium where he played Arizona Fall League baseball.

...

Gallo said that after a day game on Tuesday, Stenson had gone out with teammates "for a few drinks, to relax and just hang out." Stenson called him, apparently to ask him to come along, Gallo said, but he didn't answer the phone.

Gallo said it was a mystery how Stenson wound up in Chandler, which is several miles from the Scottsdale clubs the players frequent.

"There's nothing out there," Gallo said. "He had to be forced into doing it."

There's a Frank Gorshen/Adam West joke in here, but now's not the time to make it.

Dernell Stenson, a rookie for the Cincinnati Reds this year, was violently killed Wednesday morning.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Dernell Stenson was found dead early Wednesday on a residential street after he was shot and apparently run over in a Phoenix suburb, police said.

Chandler police said the death was being treated as a homicide.

My deepest sympathies go out to his family and the Reds organization.

Edward Cossette forwarded me an e-mail that was sent to him in response to this post on Bambino's Curse. The reader writes:

I share these sentiments, and have always wanted to be a stat-head, but I can't find the proper entry point. How does one get started with Sabrmetrics? I thought maybe this winter I would read Bill James Baseball Historical Abstract, but it's so heavy. Do you have to commit yourself to carrying around such tomes to be a Sabrmatrician? Seriously, is there a getting started manual out there for becoming a stats geek?

Edward thought I would be a good person to comment on such things, since I did in fact become a stat head. I can't say I know of anyone who intentionally set out to become a professional baseball researcher. I got into the business through a series of "right place right time" events:

1. Took a computer programming course because it looked interesting.


2. Took a second one because I did well at the first one.


3. Did very well in the second course, and the professor offered me a job in his start up.


4. Took the job and continued to earn a degree in computer science.


5. About the same time started scoring for Project Scoresheet.


6. Professor's best friend was Dick Cramer, the founder of STATS, Inc. We'd have dinner together whenever he came to town.


7. Started scoring games for STATS, Inc. in 1987.


8. In 1990, STATS, Inc. got their ESPN contract. When I expressed interest in the job, Dick Cramer pushed to hire me.

So it was a combination of the right skill set, working as much as I could in the field, and knowing the right people. So, I would suggest to anyone who really wants a job like this to:

• Study math, especially statistics and probability theory. There isn't enough experience in that among many of the stat heads out there.


• Know how to program a computer and use database software.


• Do something in baseball. Work for a minor league team in any capacity or score games for STATS, Inc. Ask a lot of questions about what's going on.


• Play lots of fantasy games and simulation games. You'll learn a lot about the players and how baseball works. Plus, it's fun.

Set a foundation for yourself, then try to get involved with a team, or a news organization. Most of the ESPN researchers I know started off somewhere else at the company and naturally gravitated to the research area. And think about starting a blog. It's easy, it's fun, it's cheap, and your opinions get seen. It's also convient to point a potential employer to your work.

And yes, you have to read Bill James. I'd start with the old paper back Abstracts rather than the Historical tome, but all should be read. And find a copy of The Managers; you'll learn more about baseball from that book than any other Bill has written. Good luck!

Robert Tagorda sends a link to this article on using game theory to determine the value of baseball players:

Using reams of historical data, Lonergan and Polak can measure the probability of a team's chance of winning a game, given any set of circumstances. With each at-bat, a player can help or hurt his team's chances.

Here's how their method works: Let's say the home team is down by two runs in the bottom of the fifth inning, with no outs and a runner on second base. At that moment, the home team has a 39% chance (or 0.39 probability) that it will win. If the batter grounds out, and the runner at second fails to advance, the team's chance of winning falls to 33%. The difference between the two, -0.06, is assigned to the batter who just grounded out.

DIFFERENT ANGLE. Polak and Lonergan add up all of a player's outcomes for the season. Doing so yields the exact number of wins -- or losses -- a player contributed to his team, relative to an average player. For example, New York Yankees slugger Jason Giambi contributed 4.9 wins (unadjusted for special circumstances -- see footnote in table below, which shows who would win 2003's MVP and Cy Young awards, according to this method). On the other end of the spectrum, maligned Yankees pitcher Jeff Weaver contributed -2.5 wins (also unadjusted). If all of the players' net win contributions are added up, the result equals the number of games over .500 the team finished in the regular season (the 2003 Yankees finished 101-61, 20 games above .500).

The method has some distinct differences from other quantitative analyses, such as the "sabermetrics" (named after SABR, the Society for American Baseball Research) method popularized by baseball historian Bill James and others. Sabermetrics also seeks to assign portions of wins to different players, but it relies on selective weighting of certain baseball statistics, such as a hitter's on-base percentage or a pitcher's earned-run average, and uses regression analysis to examine those stats' effect on wins or runs scored.

Lonergan and Polak claim that their method, which doesn't rely on traditional statistics, eliminates a step -- going directly to the measurement of game outcomes.

The article goes on to point out that at the current time, this method does not account for fielding, making the MVP table at the bottom of the article very suspect. All of the value calculated by the difference in situations is attributed to either the batter or the pitcher, and we know that's not true. Roy Halladay is the best scoring player in the AL by this method, yet some of those wins have to be attributed to the defense of the Blue Jays.

There is another problem as well. The researchers used "reams of historical data" to figure out the probability of winning in a particular situation. But these probabilities are not constant over time. The probability of coming back from three runs down in the fifth was much lower in the dead-ball sixties than in the swinging nineties. So, like linear weights, you can't have a formula that works correctly every year; you have to wait for the season to finish and then make adjustments.

Still, with the proper refinements it should be a good system, and I'm glad to see another club is testing the waters and using a new model to evaluate ballplayers. We'll have to look for a big improvement from a low payroll NL club next year.

The next step I'm taking in my probabilistic model of range is to add in the park as a parameter. Here's the new table of predicted and actual defensive efficiency records:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3070.9	0.709	3120.0	0.720	0.01135
Twins	3174.3	0.688	3226.0	0.699	0.01121
Braves	3110.2	0.689	3150.0	0.697	0.00881
Devil Rays	3173.8	0.700	3204.0	0.707	0.00665
Giants	3064.9	0.703	3091.0	0.709	0.00599
Astros	2959.2	0.698	2981.0	0.704	0.00514
Angels	3092.1	0.698	3108.0	0.702	0.00360
White Sox	3006.9	0.703	3018.0	0.705	0.00259
Indians	3178.7	0.696	3190.0	0.698	0.00247
Cubs	2749.7	0.688	2759.0	0.691	0.00234
Cardinals	3221.4	0.697	3229.0	0.698	0.00163
Expos	3061.6	0.692	3066.0	0.693	0.00100
Blue Jays	3104.6	0.681	3106.0	0.681	0.00032
Royals	3229.7	0.690	3231.0	0.690	0.00027
Phillies	3074.0	0.702	3073.0	0.701	-0.00022
Marlins	3000.9	0.692	2999.0	0.692	-0.00045
Red Sox	3081.8	0.685	3076.0	0.684	-0.00129
Rangers	3066.9	0.677	3060.0	0.675	-0.00152
Pirates	3203.5	0.693	3196.0	0.691	-0.00163
Reds	3203.9	0.690	3195.0	0.688	-0.00192
Athletics	3123.0	0.714	3112.0	0.712	-0.00250
Rockies	3176.2	0.681	3163.0	0.678	-0.00284
Padres	3023.0	0.698	3009.0	0.695	-0.00323
Diamondbacks	2902.4	0.693	2888.0	0.689	-0.00343
Orioles	3153.3	0.688	3132.0	0.683	-0.00465
Dodgers	2846.9	0.708	2828.0	0.703	-0.00470
Brewers	3146.7	0.688	3123.0	0.683	-0.00519
Mets	3137.5	0.696	3099.0	0.688	-0.00855
Tigers	3331.3	0.693	3283.0	0.683	-0.01006
Yankees	3119.8	0.690	3074.0	0.679	-0.01013

One thing for sure, no matter how you measure it, the Mariners are great and the Yankees are poor. One of the more interesting moves is by the Red Sox. They move up to the middle of the pack from the very bottom when you don't include the park as a parameter. This makes sense, since the green monster makes many balls unfieldable. A very similar move happens with the Twins due to the baggy and the fast artifical turf on which they play.

I think the next step is to compare each field with the overall model for the majors to see where in each stadium the biggest differences are.

Ball Talk is the latest entry in the baseball blog universe, and the first I know of written by an openly gay man. Stop by and say hi.

Redbird Nation has some odds and ends posted, and I find this one interesting.

3. Tino packs his bags. Literally -- he put his St. Louis home on the market and seems to have played his last game in a Cardinals uniform. When I ragged on Tino's acquisition a couple years ago, my New York buddies swore that I'd warm up to the guy. Instead he'll go down as one of my least favorite Cardinals of all time. I can forgive poor production, but not when it's mingled with a piss-poor attitude. Will he reunite with Sweet Lou in Tampa? The Devil Rays practically invented themselves as the place where veterans go to die (Greg Vaughn, Wade Boggs, new Chisox manager Ozzie Guillen), so maybe this is a good fit for Tino.

There are still some Yankees fans who wish Tino had stayed. Reading this post, it seems that some Cardinals fans wished he had stayed also.

Derek Prior sends this qualifying comment on my Edgar Martinez post of last night:

You list Gary DiSarcina as a player who played his entire career with one team. DiScarcina did, in fact, sign a contract with his hometown Boston Red Sox but spent the year in the minors and on IR. He retired as a member of the Red Sox organization. Had it not been for his injury, he probably would have played for the Red Sox that year because I believe it was the same year Nomar missed a good chuck of time.

Thanks, Derek. I was just looking at actual MLB playing time. I'm sure there were players on this list that started in another organization and ended up in the big leagues for another team (like Jeff Bagwell). So take the whole list with appropriate caveats.

Seattle Slew's Sentiments is a new general baseball blog. I believe this is the first one on AOL Journals that I've linked to. He has a nice analysis of the Astros trade from the Houston point of view here. Stop by and say hello.

Edgar Martinez signed a one-year deal to stay with the Seattle Mariners today. He'll earn a minimum of three million dollars.

The two-time AL batting champion had a $4 million base salary this year and earned $3.5 million in performance bonuses. He faced a Sunday deadline to file for free agency.

But Martinez wants to finish his career with the Mariners, the only organization he's played for.

"I'm very glad everything worked out and I'm coming back for another year," he said. "I think if we didn't reach an agreement, the chances that I'd stay home were a lot greater than I'd play for another team."

I used to hear a lot about how players don't stay with one team anymore, but it seems a lot of recent stars had their careers in one city. Here's the list of all players who played at least 12 seasons and played for only one major league franchise:

Player                Career
SALMON, Tim          1992 2003
LOPEZ, Javy          1992 2003
WILLIAMS, Bernie     1991 2003
BAGWELL, Jeff        1991 2003
THOMAS, Frank        1990 2003
DiSARCINA, Gary      1989 2000
SMOLTZ, John         1988 2003
BIGGIO, Craig        1988 2003
MARTINEZ, Edgar      1987 2003
PAGNOZZI, Tom        1987 1998
LARKIN, Barry        1986 2003
KARKOVICE, Ron       1986 1997
GREENWELL, Mike      1985 1996
PUCKETT, Kirby       1984 1995
BUSH, Randy          1982 1993
GWYNN, Tony          1982 2001
MATTINGLY, Don       1982 1995
RIPKEN JR., Cal      1981 2001
HRBEK, Kent          1981 1994
SCIOSCIA, Mike       1980 1992
OESTER, Ron          1978 1990
BENEDICT, Bruce      1978 1989
TRAMMELL, Alan       1977 1996
WHITAKER, Lou        1977 1995
STANLEY, Bob         1977 1989
SOTO, Mario          1977 1988
McGREGOR, Scott      1976 1988
GANTNER, Jim         1976 1992
GUIDRY, Ron          1975 1988
LEONARD, Dennis      1974 1986
RICE, Jim            1974 1989
YOUNT, Robin         1974 1993
HODGES, Ron          1973 1984
WHITE, Frank         1973 1990
ROGERS, Steve        1973 1985
BRETT, George        1973 1993
SCHMIDT, Mike        1972 1989
SPLITTORFF, Paul     1970 1984
CONCEPCION, Dave     1970 1988
RUSSELL, Bill        1969 1986
BENCH, Johnny        1967 1983
PALMER, Jim          1965 1984
WHITE, Roy           1965 1979
HILLER, John         1965 1980
STANLEY, Mickey      1964 1978
PETROCELLI, Rico     1963 1976
BROWN, Gates         1963 1975
GREEN, Dick          1963 1974
KRANEPOOL, Ed        1962 1979
STARGELL, Willie     1962 1982
OLIVA, Tony          1962 1976
FREEHAN, Bill        1961 1976
YASTRZEMSKI, Carl    1961 1983
GIBSON, Bob          1959 1975
DAVENPORT, Jim       1958 1970
ALLISON, Bob         1958 1970
DRYSDALE, Don        1956 1969
MAZEROSKI, Bill      1956 1972
CLEMENTE, Roberto    1955 1972
ROBINSON, Brooks     1955 1977
RICHARDSON, Bobby    1955 1966
KOUFAX, Sandy        1955 1966
KALINE, Al           1953 1974
GILLIAM, Jim         1953 1966
BANKS, Ernie         1953 1971
MANTLE, Mickey       1951 1968
LAW, Vern            1950 1967
FORD, Whitey         1950 1967
ERSKINE, Carl        1948 1959
FURILLO, Carl        1946 1960
LEMON, Bob           1941 1958
RIZZUTO, Phil        1941 1956
SUDER, Pete          1941 1955
MUSIAL, Stan         1941 1963
REESE, Pee Wee       1940 1958
SISTI, Sibby         1939 1954
WILLIAMS, Ted        1939 1960
DOERR, Bobby         1937 1951
FELLER, Bob          1936 1956
DiMAGGIO, Joe        1936 1951
TRAVIS, Cecil        1933 1947
HACK, Stan           1932 1947
CROSETTI, Frankie    1932 1948
SCHUMACHER, Hal      1931 1946
MOORE, Jo-Jo         1930 1941
APPLING, Luke        1930 1950
BRIDGES, Tommy       1930 1946
HUBBELL, Carl        1928 1943
DICKEY, Bill         1928 1946
MARTIN, Pepper       1928 1944
HARDER, Mel          1928 1947
OTT, Mel             1926 1947
COMBS, Earle         1924 1935
GEHRINGER, Charlie   1924 1942
LYONS, Ted           1923 1946
GEHRIG, Lou          1923 1939
TERRY, Bill          1923 1936
BLUEGE, Ossie        1922 1939
JACKSON, Travis      1922 1936
TRAYNOR, Pie         1920 1937
ROMMEL, Eddie        1920 1932
FABER, Red           1914 1933
DAUSS, Hooks         1912 1926
MILLER, Otto         1910 1922
GRANEY, Jack         1908 1922
MILAN, Clyde         1907 1922
JOHNSON, Walter      1907 1927
LEEVER, Sam          1898 1910
TIERNAN, Mike        1887 1899
McPHEE, Bid          1882 1899
ANSON, Cap           1876 1897

The number of players with one team did go down from the 1970's to the 1980's, and you have to figure in a couple of expansions. But it's not as bad as some people would have you believe. And it looks like Edgar Martinez will be another on the retired part of this list eventually.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)

Don's the Mon
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The Yankees have hired Don Mattingly to be their hitting coach (thanks to Shawn Bernard):

Don Mattingly, one of the most beloved Yankees despite captaining the team at a time when it was mired in one of its longest postseason droughts, will be named as the team's new hitting coach at a Tuesday afternoon news conference.

The Yankees will introduce their 2004 coaching staff at the 1 p.m. EST news conference and are expected to announce that third base coach Willie Randolph will replace Don Zimmer as manager Joe Torre's bench coach.

Sounds like they are grooming Randolph for the manager's job.

Mattingly is an example of a successful impatient hitter. For the years STATS kept the stat, 1988-1995, Mattingly saw only 3.34 pitches per plate appearance, a low number (the leaders are usually above four). Since the most important job of the Yankees hitting coach will be to teach Soriano to take a pitch, I'm not sure Don is the right man at the right time.

Mattingly did know how to make contact, however, so if he can get Soriano to cut down on his strikeouts, it should be worth it. Yankees fans, of course, will be happy to see him back in action.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Management | TrackBack (0)

Guillen and Thomas
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Ozzie Guillen has already put Frank Thomas on notice:

"As long as Frank has fun and he plays the game right, I'm not going to (say anything),'' Guillen said. "But (if) he does stuff on the field, he doesn't respect the team and he doesn't respect himself. For example, if Frank hits a flyball and doesn't run the bases, then Frank's not going to get another at-bat.

"We might fight. I'm not going to fight with him because he's to big, but I'm going to make sure we're on the same page. I'm not talking about just Frank. I'm talking about everybody. I'm not here to make friends.''

My biggest concern about Guillen as a manager is that he might be too much fun to be around. Ozzie is so easy going, I don't know how well he'll enforce discipline. The above statement is a good start.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:45 PM | Management | TrackBack (0)

November 03, 2003

Testing a Sham?
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Bryan Christopher writes:

Barry Bonds' appearance as a witness in the BALCO investigation led me to beat baseball's steroid controversy into the ground one more time before the winter.

   No one has ever told me exactly how the players are being tested. It seems as though most media outlets are assuming that justice is being served. I wanted more detail, and started looking around. I found a description in the MLB players association 2003-2006 basic agreement, and after reading it over, I'm more suspicious than before.

   If I interpreted it correctly, the agreement states that the Major League Baseball drug prevention and treatment program is headed by the Health Policy Advisory Committee(HPCA), made up of two representatives for the players association and two for the owners. They were to oversee this year's initial "program" testing of all players at a random time during the season, as well as a follow up test five to seven days later. Commissioner Bud Selig could then if he so chooses, test as many as 240 players again.

   If the results show that more than five percent of the players tested positive, the same procedures will take place in 2004, as a "survey" program and continue every year until the results show less than 2.5 percent of positive tests in two consecutive years combined. If less than five percent tests positive, the same "program" testing will also occur in future seasons. Ultimately, regardless of the results, the league-wide procedures will remain the same.

   Players that test positive, those exceeding the set limit (set by the HPCA), refusing to take a test, or caught tampering with samples, are placed on a "clinical track," which requires further testing. If the player tests positive again, he will be placed on an "administrative track." Players on the administrative track are monitored by the HPCA, their team's manager is notified, and they must take part in counseling, treatment, and commissioner-appointed follow up testing.  

   The agreement says patients will remain confidential, and their identity and test results will not be released to the public, the media or other teams.

   The degree of disciplinary action is left up to the commissioner. All offenses result in progressively longer suspensions or costlier fines, leading up to a minimum one year suspension or $100,000 fine for the fourth offense. Like all other disciplinary actions, players are allowed to appeal.

   What does all of this mean? The way I see it, testing will not change a thing. Whether this year's results show up 90 percent positive, or completely steroid-free, the steps taken bring no added responsibility. Theoretically, a player can test positive over and over again, receive counseling, fines and placement in rehabilitation programs, but never miss an at bat. Bud Selig holds the power to penalize players by handing out fines or making them sit out games, which means someone's career will be forever tainted and used as an example.

   The agreement was drawn up in a cowardly (or perhaps brilliant) fashion. It brings new integrity to the game without holding anyone truly accountable. If the test results came back and half the league was using banned substances, suspending hundreds of players would pose more serious problems than some skewed home run totals. The current regulations protect the commissioner from facing a catastrophe by giving him the option letting them continue to play. Bud Selig can follow the rules and still let them take their supplements. He can penalize players, and require them get treatment, but if they keep paying fines, they can keep playing. What if late in his career a player tests positive during each of his final five years, as he pads his hall of fame credentials and climbs towards the top of the record books? Or an up and coming superstar plays while using illegal substances for almost his entire career? Who is going to put the asterisk next to their stats? Not Selig, unless he thinks it would be in the game's best interest. Keep in mind this is the same commissioner who left the 2002 all star game a tie, and in my opinion threatens to implement programs (contraction) just to create leverage in negotiating with the players. He cannot be trusted, but that's a whole other story. Right now, using steroids does not put a player's career at legal risk, and until it does, nothing will change.

   Selig still has too many problems to mend before he can make time for another angry players union. Plus, the next three years of inadequate testing will perhaps allow for the games economics to improve. The offensive mindset many of today's teams embrace would suffer from suspensions. Sitting hitters for juicing would take away from the revenue gains made in the past few years, and erase the benefits that avoiding the work stoppage in 2002 appeared to create. How many fans are going to show up to watch a below .500 team if their leading power hitter sat games out for weeks? Would a small market team make the playoffs if their numbers three and four hitters had to miss time in September? These don't sound like profitable options, and perhaps that what these policies boil down to. The rules show that revenue can increase while integrity fades away.

   Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the fans will never find out. We won't know who is juicing, or if he quits after getting caught. We can't verify Ken Caminiti's allegations in Sports Illustrated, or the numbers in Jose Canseco's book. We will have no choice but to analyze every piece of information reported and decide for ourselves if it is true. Unless someone surprises baseball (like a BALCO investigation), Selig will keep worming his way out of difficult situations, and this debate might be left to be beaten into the ground, in hopes that fans will assume the players are getting tested, and the problem goes away on its own.
   You be the judge.

Source: MLBPA 2003-2006 Basic Agreement
   http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/spo/mlbpa/mlbpa_cba.pdf pgs
157-175

Bryan makes many good points here. We do have to put a lot of trust in the Lords of Baseball to make sure this is done properly. I have the same reservations that Bryan has. We can only hope that future labor agreements lead to better testing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:46 PM | Cheating | TrackBack (0)

King Dome?
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Don King wants to build a baseball stadium on his property:

Boxing promoter Don King wants the Florida Marlins to build a ballpark on 54 acres of property he owns in Palm Beach County.

King owns a jai-alai fronton in Mangonia Park that he said would be an ideal site for the World Series champions' proposed park, spokesman Robert Weneck said. If the ballpark has a roof, King would stage boxing matches in the arena during the offseason.

That would help the Marlins pay the estimated cost of $325 million for the stadium, King said.

"It's a marriage made in heaven for Floridians," King said Monday during a telephone interview from Atlantic City, N.J. He said he has not spoken yet to the Marlins and said no financial terms had been set for the offer.

First of all, I'd love to see Don King wearing a Marlins cap, or any cap for that matter. :-) One big problem, however, is that this area is 60 miles north of the present stadium, and being inconvient is a big complaint about Pro Player. Putting a new stadium a hour north of that isn't going to improve things.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:22 PM | Stadiums | TrackBack (0)

Lucky 13
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According to this report on ESPN.com, Ozzie Guillen will be named the new manager of the Chicago White Sox.

I really don't know what to make of this. As far as I can tell, Ozzie is one of the nicest guys to have played the game, and he obviously has a great relationship with Jerry Reinsdorf. The fans will love this, but I have no idea what kind of manager he'll be. Now that he's hired, I want to see what he says to the press about the makeup of the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:21 PM | Management | TrackBack (0)

Closing In
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The Phillies traded for Houston Closer Billy Wagner today. Wagner had 19 win shares for Houston last year. He'll be replacing Mesa and Williams, who combined for 0 win shares for the Phillies. Philadelphia loses Brian Duckworth in the trade plus future considerations.

I'm not a big fan of closers, but the Phillies just picked up six wins with this move. It's lopsided, one-sided, and just what is needed as the new ballpark opens. I suspect that even Ben Franklin is excited about this deal. :-)

As for the Astros, they've freed $8 million they can use to find those six wins they lost. It looks like Dotel will be the closer. Eight million dollars can go a long way if you're careful how to spend it.

Update: Note that the Astros don't necessarily need to look for those wins in the bullpen. They have Dotel, who has stats very similar to Wagner's and should be an effective closer. Dotel had 12 win shares in a set up role, and a set up man is one you should be able to find without having to spend too much money. I think the best bet for the Astros is to look for those six wins (or more) in their starting rotation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:24 PM | Trades | TrackBack (0)

The Cub Reporter
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Christian Ruzich, the Cub Reporter lost his house in the southern California fire. Please send him your thoughts, and I believe this would be a real good time to hit his Paypal tipjar.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Other | TrackBack (0)

Win Shares Blog
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The people who bring you Major League Baseball Graphs now have a blog devoted to win shares called Fun With Win Shares. Stop by and take a look.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)

November 02, 2003

Rising Sun
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I guess Bobby Valentine won't be available for any of the managerial vacanies in the US. Time to apply for the vacant seat on Baseball Tonight!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:21 AM | Management | TrackBack (0)

Probabilistic Model of Range, continued
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I'm starting work again on my probabilistic model of range. (You can read about my previous work here.) These will come in a series of posts that I hope I will be able to gather together into a single paper. The following table is for the complete 2003 season, and is based on the same statistics as my previous output.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Mariners	3051.8	0.705	3120.0	0.720	0.01574
Phillies	3013.8	0.688	3073.0	0.701	0.01350
Cardinals	3171.7	0.686	3229.0	0.698	0.01240
White Sox	2978.2	0.696	3018.0	0.705	0.00929
Angels	3069.1	0.693	3108.0	0.702	0.00877
Padres	2974.9	0.687	3009.0	0.695	0.00788
Dodgers	2797.7	0.696	2828.0	0.703	0.00753
Braves	3117.6	0.690	3150.0	0.697	0.00717
Expos	3035.7	0.686	3066.0	0.693	0.00684
Reds	3166.7	0.682	3195.0	0.688	0.00610
Astros	2960.7	0.699	2981.0	0.704	0.00480
Brewers	3104.6	0.679	3123.0	0.683	0.00404
Royals	3221.4	0.688	3231.0	0.690	0.00205
Cubs	2753.6	0.689	2759.0	0.691	0.00136
Marlins	2993.6	0.691	2999.0	0.692	0.00124
Rockies	3162.6	0.678	3163.0	0.678	0.00008
Orioles	3135.9	0.684	3132.0	0.683	-0.00086
Indians	3195.5	0.699	3190.0	0.698	-0.00121
Devil Rays	3213.7	0.709	3204.0	0.707	-0.00213
Athletics	3125.2	0.715	3112.0	0.712	-0.00302
Giants	3105.6	0.712	3091.0	0.709	-0.00335
Twins	3243.3	0.703	3226.0	0.699	-0.00375
Tigers	3310.6	0.689	3283.0	0.683	-0.00575
Mets	3126.2	0.694	3099.0	0.688	-0.00604
Blue Jays	3134.7	0.687	3106.0	0.681	-0.00629
Rangers	3117.8	0.688	3060.0	0.675	-0.01275
Pirates	3259.0	0.705	3196.0	0.691	-0.01363
Diamondbacks	2949.8	0.704	2888.0	0.689	-0.01476
Yankees	3146.3	0.695	3074.0	0.679	-0.01599
Red Sox	3151.5	0.700	3076.0	0.684	-0.01678

I've received a lot of positive feedback about this approach, and some constructive criticism. A number of researchers believe that these figures need to be adjusted for the park and the the handedness of the pitcher. My next step is to make those adjustments and see what happens. Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)

Pitches Per Plate Appearance
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Al Bethke has an interesting post on pitches per plate appearance over at Al's Ramblings. He constructs a lineup out of the best batters at working a pitcher, vs a lineup of the hitters who see the fewest pitchers when they come to bat. The selective hitters in aggregate have a 100 point better OPS.

I've watched this stat for a number of years. It's not a be all or an end all; there are good hitters who don't see that many pitches. There are poor hitters who are selective. But I think in general Al is correct that a lineup of selective hitters will do more damage, if for no other reason than they tire out the starter earlier.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM | Statistics | TrackBack (0)