December 18, 2005
ERA Under the Microscope
U.S.S Mariner dissects Jarrod Washburn's 3.20 ERA:
Jarrod Washburn did post a 3.20 ERA last year. No one denies that. The question we’ve been posing is how consistent are the skills that he showed that led to that 3.20 ERA? The answer: not at all. Washburn posted a low ERA thanks to putting men on first base and leaving them there. That’s not a recipe for success, and its not one he can repeat.
I'd say it's not likely one he can repeat.
Posted by David Pinto at
10:31 AM
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He probably won't repeat a 3.20. But he has put up a better Warp3 than Burnett every single year, being worth 1.5 wins more a year than Burnett.
He also faced harder than the norm batting last year, ranking 34 out of 187 (400+ PA) in opponent OPS.
He is also a flyball pitcher, so he should be helped by Safeco. His road OPS allowed last year was 53 points lower than his home OPS.
Overall, last year he was lucky. Something right around 4 was probably more realistic. Playing in Safeco, I would expect an ERA around 3.7. He is a legit #2 and is being paid appropriately for that.
Don't forget that Washburn has pitched - and pitched very well - in the postseason and World Series. He's only of only 3 FA pitchers this winter that can make that claim (Rocket and Al Leiter are the others).
Not that it matters given the current state of the Mariners though...
Not that I'm a proponent of Washburn's contract but, as far as Jarrod leaving runners on base, I woud say that is partly a skill as he didn't allow anyone to steal against him last year.
I agree he isn't all that good, but he deserves to cash in on his free agency. He's a nice guy to have at the back end of a rotation, but the real master of stranding the runners and working out of jams, is Andy Pettitte, that guy has nerves of steel and the rings to prove it.