Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings

Trades Archives

May 02, 2008
Another Reason Arizona will be Good for a Long Time
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I was just reading this postive story on Carlos Quentin and it reminded me of something I was thinking about yesterday. The Arizona Diamondbacks made some very good deals this winter, not only for their teams, but for the other teams as well. At this point, the White Sox have a very productive player, the Oakland Athletics have two productive players, and I'm guessing Valverde will be okay for the Astros as the season progresses. In other words, the Diamondbacks established themselves as a fair trader. That should make it easier as time goes on for Josh Byrnes to plug holes in his team. Combine that with this being a good, young team that's going to stay together for a few years, and the future of the Diamondbacks is looking very bright.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 27, 2008
Helping Both Teams
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Josh Hamilton and Edinson Volquez swapped teams over the winter, and both were instrumental in helping their teams win today and this year. Hamilton picked up three hits today, including a home run. He scored twice and drove in two and sports a .385 OBA and a .581 slugging percentage in the middle of the Texas order. Combined with a complete game shutout by Vicente Padilla, Texas took home a 10-0 victory over the Twins.

Edinson Volquez

27 April 2008: Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez during the Cincinnati Reds 10-2 victory over the Giants in San Francisco, California.
Photo:Icon SMI

In San Francisco, Edinson Volquez continued his dominance of the National League. He lasted seven innings against the Giants, allowing one runs while striking out ten. His walk rate remains high, but with only three today he's his K/BB is over two at 33/16.

Volquez lowers his ERA to 1.23, tied with Lincecum for second in the NL. With a 4-0 record, he's making an early bid to win both the Jackie Robinson and the Cy Young Awards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 26, 2008
Flashback to Fergosi
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Lone Star Ball links to an article indicating that Nolan Ryan isn't happy with the pitching trades made by Jon Daniels.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 13, 2008
Kaz and Ban
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Tony Massarotti puts the Mets trade of Brian Bannister on a par with the trade of Scott Kazmir:

A little more than two years after trading Kazmir to Tampa Bay for the forgettable Victor Zambrano in what might qualify as The Worst Trade Ever, the Mets sent young right-hander Bannister to the Kansas City Royals in December 2006 for reliever Ambiorix Burgos. And tough Burgos went 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA in 17 appearances for the Mets last season, he needed major elbow surgery at the end of the season.

On top of that, Bannister is one of the smarter pitchers out there, who really works at learning his craft. It's not as bad as the Kazmir deal yet, but there's still plenty of time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 02, 2008
The Trade Revisited
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SportsHubLA looks at the Brad Penny deal a few years later. Maybe DePodesta knew what he was doing after all.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 28, 2008
Challenge Trade
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The St. Louis Cardinals take the early lead in the challenge trade of Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus:

Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in an offseason trade, Rolen was injured when he was hit on the hand by a ball during a fielding drill Sunday on a back field at Dunedin, Fla. A screw was inserted in his finger during surgery Monday.

"The doctor gave a 4-6-week window from the time of surgery," said Rolen, whose team beat the Houston Astros, 8-3, in an exhibition game yesterday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 17, 2008
News Cycle
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The Cub Reporter provides a useful graphic for knowing where you are in the Brian Roberts trade talks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 10, 2008
Too Late?
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There's an old saying about trading a player too early rather than too late:

From what I saw on the tube this weekend, Crede appears healthy, if just a little rusty. His swing mechanics look fine; the hands are high, there's no wasted motion. But it's not showing up in the results. He had a particularly terrible game against the Giants Saturday, which included an 0-3 on a number of hittable pitches and at least one 'Crede would have gotten it' moment. He couldn't have laid an egg against a more inopportune opponent.

The Giants are probably happy they waited on the deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 09, 2008
Crisp Morning
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The latest rumor sends Coco Crisp to the Cubs for Jason Marquis and a low level prospect.

Marquis would provide depth in the rotation and be more of "sure thing" than Bartolo Colon. Given how easily a misstep can occur and cause an injury to a starting pitcher, pitching depth of any kind is invaluable. However outside of Major League experience and health, Marquis, who is currently fighting for a spot in the Cubs rotation, doesn't have a whole lot going for him. Coming off a 2007 season where he was 12-9 with a 4.60 ERA in the National League, I wouldn't expect too much more out of Marquis than the Red Sox got last year out of Julian Tavarez.

Watching the Red Sox pitching moves this spring, signing Colon, looking at Freddy Garcia, and now a rumor about Marquis, I get the feeling they were woefully unprepared for adversity in the starting rotation. The depth that was a great strength for them last season seems to have vanished. In all likelihood, they'll be very good, but an injury to one of the projected top five starters and one of the rookies not working out and you suddenly have a team that's very dependent on the offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
March 07, 2008
Crede to the Coast?
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With the Dodgers suffering at third base, South Side Sox wonders if the market for Joe Crede is heating up:

Crede and Inge are very similar players in that they're both low-OBP, defensive minded, slugging third basemen. But Crede brings more power, a better contact rate, and a smaller salary -- Inge is owed $19.1M over the next three years. Why wouldn't the Dodgers be interested?

They wouldn't be locking themselves into a 2.5 years of an overpriced bench player when LaRoche gets healthy. And Crede might be movable at the trade deadline to a team like the Indians, who might be looking for 3B help by then.

If the White Sox can get the Dodgers and Giants into a bidding war over Crede, that could help Chicago now. Of course, those two teams might go for the more expensive but healthier Inge, which might bring Detroit some extra bullpen help.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2008
Wanting Santana
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Emma Span looks at why the Yankees and Red Sox fans were happy they didn't get Santana. She closes with a great paragraph:

Of course, these concerns are a luxury few teams can afford, and you won't hear many Mets fans complaining about overspending. Their team hasn't won a championship since 1986, and last year's nominal ace, Tom Glavine, cemented the team's epic September implosion by throwing one-third of an inning of seven-run ball on the last day of the season. The Mets needed Santana, and--thanks in large part to the Yankees' and Red Sox's abstention--they got him. As the fans at Shea know all too well, you need to have success before you can worry about how it's achieved.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 11, 2008
Rounding up the Bedard Trade
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The Hardball Times staff and guests hold a round table over the Erik Bedard trade. The most interesting thing to come out of the discussion is how much of the Mariners Pythagorean luck was caused by losing blowouts. If Bedard replaces the pitchers who allowed those blowouts to happen, maybe the Mariners do have a chance to be better in 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
February 10, 2008
Crede Rumors
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Mark Gonzales suggests the White Sox might trade Crede to the Giants for Noah Lowry:

Giants general manager Brian Sabean, who desperately needs a middle-of-the-order hitter of Crede's caliber (with Bengie Molina as the Giants' current cleanup hitter), told reporters Friday his team currently has pitching depth.

I thought most of the Giants hitters were of Crede's caliber.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
February 08, 2008
Bedard Deal Done
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Baseball Digest Daily just emailed that the Erik Bedard deal is done. More later.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:28 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 07, 2008
The Slow Road
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Erik Bedard is scheduled to start his physcial in Seattle today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Still no News
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Erik Bedard still hasn't traveled to Seattle for his physical. Since it was reported that Jones and Sherrill took their physicals, it makes one wonder if something showed up in one of those.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 06, 2008
Three Aces
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My latest SportingNews.com column looks at why the most talented pitcher brought the least in trade value.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Castillo Connection
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Luis Castillo had a hand in bringing Johan Santana to the Mets:

"When I got traded," Castillo said on a conference call yesterday from the Dominican Republic, "I remember Johan, in the locker room, we talked for 20 minutes. He told me he wanted to play for the Mets.

"So when I got over there I told (GM Omar) Minaya that Johan liked the Mets. I told him, 'I know he'll make a lot of money, but he's a great pitcher, and we need him here.' "

It makes you wonder, if the Twins had kept Castillo, would Johan have accepted the organization's contract offer?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 05, 2008
Still on Hold
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Erik Bedard is still in Canada.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 04, 2008
Flip that Reliever
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Here's the latest Orioles rumor:

Once completed the deal will likely be announced this afternoon or tomorrow morning. League Officials now expect the deal that would send Roberts to the Cubs to be finalized and completed by the weekend. They now expect that George Sherrill to be part of the deal. The O's have no use for a 31 year old reliever in there pen and want to get younger. Sherrill will ensure that the O's will get at least two pitchers in the deal from the Cubs.

Remember to take everything you hear about this deal with a huge grain of salt. Thanks to David Gerstman for the heads up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Closer to a Deal
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More evidence the deal between Baltimore and Seattle is going to happen:

The long-awaited blockbuster trade that would send Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for five players is finally nearing completion. According to a league source, Adam Jones, the young outfielder who is the centerpiece of the Mariners' offer, is in Baltimore today and the deal is now pending results of physicals.

If all goes well with Jones' physical, the trade could be announced as early as this afternoon. It is expected that the Orioles will send Bedard, the organization's first legitimate ace since Mike Mussina, to Seattle for Jones, a 22-year-old who is one of baseball's best prospects, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Missing George
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Jim Souhan muses on the Twins and George Steinbrenner:

For decades, the Twins complained privately about George Steinbrenner. The bombastic Yankees owner inflated salaries, campaigned against low-revenue teams and often embarrassed himself and the game.

Today, the Twins might miss King George more than they miss Johan Santana.

Jim's thesis is that George Steinbrenner would have made the Santana deal, and the Twins would wind up with a better package of players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 03, 2008
Deja Vu
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Didn't we do this story last week?

Mariners outfielder Adam Jones traveled to Baltimore on Sunday, a source said, presumably to undergo a physical examination that originally was scheduled for Jan. 29.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Latest on Bedard
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This keeps getting more bizarre:

There are also some other crazy rumors out there today regarding a possible 6-for-2 deal that may or may not include Brian Roberts, and there is also something out there about Erik Bedard currently in Seattle.

The Roberts thing has been going around for a while but has recently been gaining steam. It wouldn't surprise me, because the Mariners could stand to upgrade at second base. If Roberts was added to the deal we would probably see one of the above pitchers dropped from the proposal, and possible Carlos Triunfel and Jose Lopez or Yung Chi Chen being added.

A week ago Jones told a reporter he was going to Baltimore for a physical, and we still have almost no clue as to what's really going on. I wonder what the breaking point is for Seattle? At some point, you might expect them to just throw in the towel and stop dealing with Baltimore.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 02, 2008
Deal Details
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Joe Christensen publishes the details of the Santana deal. The 2014 option vests:

It's a vesting option that can be triggered with innings pitched or a high finish in the Cy Young voting. Santana also received a full no-trade clause. The average annual value of Santana's six-year deal is actually $22 million. Only Alex Rodriguez (at $27.5 million) will make more.

The Mets also tore up the old contract, so Santana receives $19 million in 2008. Johan got a very good deal here. Santana and his agent played this whole deal perfectly. They used the no-trade cause to force the Twins to make a deal, then used the short negotiation window to force the Mets to pay free agent money without free agency. On top of great money and seven years, they also get a full no-trade! Not even a short list of teams! I can't imagine what he'd get if he actually became a free agent.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Healthy Pitcher
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Johan Santana passed his physical with flying colors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Stark Reality
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Jayson Stark writes an excellent column today on how the Santana trade changes baseball:

So that contract extension Johan Santana negotiated with the Mets on Friday -- all $137.5 million of it -- made a lot of people happy, all right. He's a franchise-changing guy. He's a pennant-race-changing guy. And now he's also a salary-structure-changing guy.

Which means he already has left an indelible imprint on the baseball universe, before he has even thrown his first pitch as a Met.

He also makes a very important point about the trade, as well as letting Torii Hunter go. These were choices by the Twins. The offer Minnesota made to Johan Santana shows they could have kept him. They could have gone more money/more years. It was their business plan, not their revenue that the prevented them from doing that.

And remember, offer to Santana would have made him the highest paid pitcher in terms of yearly salary. That wasn't enough for Johan. He wanted a bigger total contract that Barry Zito. So I'd argue it was Zito's contract that actually changed the landscape. The Giants made a good but not great pitcher the highest paid in the game for a very long time period. If the Giants sign Zito for five years, $18 million, then the Twins might actually keep Santana with a five-year, $20 million per year contract. But if the Twins have to beat the total dollar amount, that makes it much tougher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 01, 2008
Another 120
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The Mets and Santana had their deadline extended two hours.

Update: The deal is done:

...Update...6:44 pm...

The Mets have issued a statement saying negotiations are complete and Santana is scheduled to take a physical.

...from what i can gather, the physical will be tomorrow...

...Update...6:46 pm...

...i have reason to believe the deal is for a guaranteed six years, and $137.5 million...as expected, he'll stay under contract on his current deal, but paid roughly $7 million on top of that...i can't confirm that with people connected to the team, though...


Update: The New York Daily News has more.

The deal bumps this season's salary to approximately $20 million and adds six guaranteed years at $22-23 million.

I believe this is only the third player to receive $20 million a year for a long term contract, the others being A-Rod (twice) and Manny Ramirez.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Santana Talks
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Via MetsBlog.com, Ken Davidoff predicts the negotiations:

Within the baseball industry, there is near unanimity on these two predictions when it comes to the Mets and Johan Santana:

1. They will come to an agreement on Santana's contract extension by Friday afternoon's 5 o'clock deadline.

2. They won't complete that agreement until 4:59.

This is one of those situations where there's no reason to reach an agreement early. Both sides know they want to get the deal done, it's just waiting and seeing which side is most willing to go that extra million or ten at the last minute. Santana was willing to play the season out with Minnesota, then test free agency. As long as he maintains that attitude, he should come out ahead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 31, 2008
No Long Term Contract
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Erik Bedard's agent denies that the Orioles are working on a long term contract for the pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:37 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The State of Bedard
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We know nothing, as Roch Kubatko tells us:

Meanwhile, just to recap: Half the nation believes the Orioles and Mariners are within minutes of completing a trade. The other half believes the trade is being held up while team president Andy MacPhail attempts to negotiate a long-term deal with Bedard.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sands of Time
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The Mets have until 5 PM EDT on Friday to finish a deal with Johan Santana.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 30, 2008
The Latest on Bedard
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Oriole Central brings us the lastest news.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:03 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Santana in LA
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Jon Weisman looks at why the Dodgers didn't compete for Johan Santana.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twins Reactions
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Joe Christensen rounds up reactions of Twins players to the Santana trade. They're mostly positive, in the sense that they're glad the distraction is gone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Inside the Deal
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Bob Klapisch details the inner workings of the Santana deal:

This was late Monday night, about 12 hours before the Mets would pounce upon their most dramatic trade in recent history. Twins' general manager Bill Smith, in a panic to move Johan Santana, called the Yankees and admitted surrender: Phil Hughes was no longer a prerequisite, he said. Instead, the Twins asked for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a top prospect. Would the Yankees still be interested, Smith wondered?

The Yankees considered the idea, but only briefly and not seriously. Their passion for Santana started waning as far back as December, when Andy Pettitte announced he was returning to the Bronx. The Yankees' internal straw vote was unanimous: The Twins had waited too long. On Tuesday Yankees' GM Brian Cashman told Smith he was passing on the deal, prompting the Twins to call the Red Sox. Equally devastating news awaited. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester were unavailable.

The Red Sox, in lock step with the Yankees, had essentially backed out, too.

The Mets were smart enough to know they were in the driver's seat, and took full advantage of that position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Adding Wins
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How many wins does Johan Santana add to the Mets in 2008? It depends on who Johan is replacing. If you assume he's pushing likely fifth starter Mike Pelfrey out of the rotation, then it's a huge boost. Baseball Prospects (subscription required) rated Pelfrey at 0.5 wins above replacement in 2007. Maybe over a full season and some improvement, Pelfrey might reach 2.0 in 2008. Santana's WARP in 2007 came in at 9.1. So compared to the fifth starter, Santana is adding seven to nine wins.

But Pelfrey was in the rotation due to the loss of Tom Glavine. Tom posted a WARP of 4.1 in 2007. In that case, Santana is adding five wins over 2007. That's fantastic. The Mets needed those five wins last season. It's also difficult to find players who can make a five win impact. Landing a player like that without losing a major league starter or their number one prospect makes this a great deal for New York.

Update: PECOTAs are not out yet, but Nate Silver unveils Santana's in this BP post. They project Santana's WARP to be 7.5 in 2008, meaning he's adding 3 1/2 wins over Glavine. That would still have put the Mets into the playoffs last year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Breaking Down the Santana Trade
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Aaron Gleeman looks at the details of the Santana trade.

In a perfect world Santana would christen the new ballpark with an Opening Day start in 2010 and wear a Twins cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, but for whatever reason his remaining in Minnesota never seemed to be a legitimate option once the trade rumors began swirling. Swapping him for packages led by Hughes or Ellsbury would have put the Twins in a better position for both short- and long-term success, so if either of those deals were passed on then Smith made a major mistake.

With that said, getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn't shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one's idea of a great haul for Santana, but it's not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn't have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he's still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins' favor. It just could have been better.

I still don't see why the Twins didn't offer Santana $140 million for seven years. Baseball revenues are growing. The Twins are moving into a new stadium, and that's likely to increase revenue as well (especially if both Santana and Liriano are at the top of the rotation). An argument could be made that Santana is worth $140 million over five years, so the Twins could look at the seven year deal as one in which money is deferred. The team did nothing to endear themselves to the Minnesota fans with this deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 29, 2008
Girl Talk
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MetsGrrl writes BatGirl and gets her thoughts on the Johan Santana trade.

Update: This is just cold.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Three Day Window
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Baseball Digest Daily alerts us that the Mets and Twins agreed to a deal for Johan Santana:

The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension.

The Mets paid a high price in prospects to land Santana, agreeing to send the Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.

There's still time for the deal to go south, but it looks like the Yankees and Red Sox successfully kept the other from acquiring the big ace.

Shea should be a great park for Johan. Imagine the best parts of Jerry Koosman and Sid Fernandez combined.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:27 PM | Comments (23) | TrackBack (0)
Another Player Pulled
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Here we go again. According to The MLB Source, the Mets pulled Carlos Gomez out of the Caribbean Series. Carlos is rumored to be involved in the Johan Santana deal. However, reading the translation of the article, it seems the Mets didn't give permission, rather than actually pulling Gomez out of the series. I'm not getting too excited over this one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 28, 2008
Standstill Deal
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The Bedard-Jones deal is on hold:

A source familiar with the talks said a potential deal is being held up on the Orioles' end and unspecified complex issues still need to be resolved for the trade to go through. One of those might be Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail getting the approval of club owner Peter Angelos.

Mariners center fielder Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the Seattle offer for Bedard, was originally expected to be in Baltimore later Monday in preparation for a physical Tuesday, according to a club source. However, those plans have been scuttled, an indication that the deal has either hit a snag or is currently on hold.

The Orioles currently don't have a physical scheduled for Jones, the source said.

"We are where we were last night," said MacPhail on Monday. "We have no agreement."

MacPhail said that he didn't expect any developments for a couple of days. Asked if an agreement could be pending, MacPhail said, "I don't know."

Interesting. Obviously, Adam Jones was told something on Sunday that made him think a deal was happening. Sounds like someone talked too soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The Angelos Factor
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According to Jayson Stark, Peter Angelos hasn't had a chance to approve the Bedard trade:

The same source also indicated that Angelos wasn't informed of the particulars of this latest proposal until late Sunday and that he won't be available Monday to confer with the Orioles' baseball officials because of a personal matter.

Given Angelos' long history of vetoing trades, one baseball man who has dealt extensively with Angelos predicted that "this could get more interesting as it goes along" if Angelos has yet to approve this deal.

It's a good thing Adam Jones has a big mouth, otherwise we wouldn't be having so much fun today!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:24 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Roch on Jones
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Roch Kubatko tries to analyze what is happening in Baltimore with Adam Jones:

At this point in the morning, there isn't much to add, but I feel the need to point out, after reading another Seattle Times blog entry, that nobody on this end is disputing that Jones told a reporter in Venezuela that the Mariners instructed him to fly to Baltimore. We don't need a translator to understand his quotes.

The confusion comes when Orioles president Andy MacPhail and a team source insist that no agreement has been reached. That denial isn't the same as saying a deal isn't finalized, which could simply mean no announcement comes until certain players pass their physicals. An agreement is a different animal.

You don't schedule a physical without an agreement. If the two sides are still working out some details, most important being which final player is included in the package, you don't line up a physical for Adam Jones. And you certainly don't fly him to Baltimore and arrange transportation to Camden Yards without telling Erik Bedard's agent, Mark Pieper.

Roch points out that it is very tough to get information out of the Orioles front office right now, but also that MacPhail is trustworthy. The situation remains murky at best.

Update: Here's Geoff Baker's latest take on the deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Liking Bedard
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Dectect-o-Vision really likes that the Mariners are about to acquire Erik Bedard.

The goal in baseball isn't to stockpile resources high enough to fill the acorn silo, kiddies. It's to configure those resources so as to win baseball games.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twins and Prospects
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Joe Christensen notes the Twins are good at identifying the top prospects in other organization, but his inclusion of Cristian Guzman sort of ruins the story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bedard Reaction
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Noting that nothing is official yet, U.S.S. Mariner reacts to the Erik Bedard trade:

It is confusing and distressing to witness a team that claims to be interested in fielding a competitive team over the long term trade a player of Jones' talent and value, along what we reasonably expect to be highly valuable pieces, to the Orioles for a pitcher determined to test free agency at the end of his contract.

I don't know about that last bit. The other day there was an article in which Erik was complaining that the Orioles and the lack of a long term contract. MacPhail noted:

"We wanted to talk about a multiyear deal and they suggested that they just do a one-year deal," MacPhail said. "That's the truth."

If the Mariners show Bedard the money, I be he'll be happy to sign a long term deal.

Hat tip, 6-4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 27, 2008
Reading the Tea Leaves
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Adam Jones is not in the lineup tonight for his winter league game. This time, it really appears to be the sign that Jones is headed to Baltimore:

Jones did not mince words when he spoke to a reporter from Diario Panorama in Venezuela today. We have a relationship with the reporter and paper and they have graciously supplied us with quotes from the interview with Jones.

"I received a call from Seattle saying that is no more playing for me and I can't do anything about that,'' Jones said. "I leave tomorrow morning...It sucks. I want to play. This is Game 4 of the finals and I really want to be there for my team, but it's something that all the guys understand. I really want to play, but I can't."

On the actual deal itself: "(Bill Bavasi) called me yesterday and told me the news. I've got to go to Baltimore tomorrow morning and handle things there. I'm the centerpiece of the deal on the Mariners side. It's an honor to get traded for such a highly talented pitcher as Bedard is. He's one of the best. Last year he finished up as arguably one of the top candidates for the Cy Young. He's that good, so for me it's an honor. You know, I like Seattle, but if I am in Baltimore, as I think now I am, I'm going to embrace it and have the best time of my life in Major League Baseball."

Thanks to the readers who pointed out these two stories. Bedard gives the Mariners a top notch front of the rotation starter, and I suspect Bedard-Hernandez-Washburn to make the Mariners one of the top rotations in the AL this season. Of course, this leaves a hole in the outfield. However, it's easier to fill that hole than find a number one starter.

Update: MacPhail denies the report:

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said tonight that the club has not agreed to trade ace pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for a package headed by young center fielder Adam Jones, despite reports that a deal is done.

"We do not have an agreement with the Mariners," MacPhail said.

Either Jones is playing with a reporter, or MacPhail is sticking to a strict line that they don't have a deal until the physical is passed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 20, 2008
Cubs Deny Trade
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The Cubs also deny that a nine-player deal was nixed by Peter Angelos.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 19, 2008
Deal or No Deal?
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Oriole Central looks at the possibility that Peter Angelos killed a deal that would have sent both Roberts and Bedard to the Cubs for seven players. Given Angelos's past history, I wouldn't be surprised it this were true. The Orioles, however, deny the story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Valuing Santana
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I've seen almost all the Yankees blogs linking to this economic analysis of a possible Santana trade by Vince Gennaro. The Yankees do better keeping Hughes, and Santana makes the most economic sense for the Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 17, 2008
Slow on Santana
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Metsblog.com has a very good take on why a trade for Johan Santana hasn't happened yet:

...and this, to me, is why it's taking so long for a deal to be made...they have several unique offers that would each shape their team differently for the next 5-10 years...the near future of the Twins organization is essentially riding on this trade and the front office can't afford to screw it up...
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 16, 2008
Even Swap
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My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the Rolen/Glaus trade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 15, 2008
Talking Again
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That didn't last long.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 14, 2008
Done Deals
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Both the Rolen/Glaus deal and the Kotsay to the Braves deal are done.

The Athletics get Joey Devine, a young relief pitcher who blows away batters with strikeouts but also walks a ton. In his 19 2/3 innings of major league work, however, he's walked more than he's struck out. On the positive side, his walks allowed showed great improvement in 2007 at the minor league level. If he can strike out over nine per nine in the majors, he should be an effective relief pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Yanked Out of Santana
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The Yankees appear to be out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes. That puts less pressure on Boston to meet the Twins demands. So, does Minnesota take less than they want in a deal, or do they continue to wait to see if anyone else gets interested, or if the Mets come up with a better offer?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
January 13, 2008
Roberts Still an Oriole
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It looks like the Brian Roberts trade to the Cubs is dead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 12, 2008
Swapping Third Birds
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Ken Rosenthal reports the Blue Jays and Cardinals are close to trading Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen.

The Cardinals and Blue Jays are closing in on an exchange of their third basemen, major-league sources say, but both former All-Stars must pass physicals before a deal is completed.

Those physicals are no small issue since Rolen is coming off surgery on his right shoulder and Glaus surgery on his left foot.

I don't know why the Blue Jays would make this deal. Glaus has been more productive over the last three seasons than Rolen, and his seasonal age is two years younger. I understand Glaus wants to play on real grass, but this looks like a step back for the Blue Jays.

Hat Tip, Baeball Think Factory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 10, 2008
Santana Shuffle
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The Yankees are moving away from making a deal for Johan Santana:

But while stressing there is "absolutely nothing new" in terms of recent trade discussions with the Twins, Hank is beginning to sound convinced - if not nearly ready - to walk away from any potential blockbuster deal for Johan Santana.

"We went into this with me making the final baseball decisions and Hal more addressing the financial aspects of the company, but we both do everything," Steinbrenner said yesterday in a phone interview. "We're equal partners, but at this point, to tell you the truth, I'm leaning away from it anyway, so it doesn't matter. Same thing with Brian, he's another integral part of it, obviously, being the general manager, and one day he's leaning to do it and the next day he's not sure.

"But what it comes down to right now is giving up a lot (in a trade) and then having to do the big contract, as