With the Nationals signing Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson asked for a trade. Dave at U.S.S. Mariner thinks he'd be perfect in Seattle.

Update: Dunn playing first base isn't set in stone. The Nationals will give Nick Johnson a chance to show he's healthy. The danger, of course, is that Johnson wins the job then gets hurt in May. Trading him and giving the job to Dunn might be the better long-term move for the team.

Peter Abraham looks at the comparative advantages the Braves and Yankees hold in players and suggests that interleague trade might occur.

The Yankees manage to trade Chase Wright after he was designated for assignment to make room for Andy Pettitte. Wright was the pitcher who gave up four consecutive home runs to the Red Sox in 2007.

The Yankees get Eric Fryer, who is described as an outfielder-catcher:

The 23-year old Fryer hit .335 with 10 homers and 63 RBIs in 104 games for Class A West Virginia last year. He led the South Atlantic League in batting average and on-base percentage (.407) and was third in slugging percentage (.506).

It's pretty good to get someone who is leading his league in these categories, although his age means he's more mature than a lot of players at that level. If he's a real catcher with those numbers, he might be a real steal. If, however, you're labeled as a an outfielder-catcher, I suspect his defensive abilities behind the plate aren't that good. Needless to say, it's an intriguing trade.

Joe Christensen reports on a possible Twins deal with the Mariners.

John Hickey, of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, reported yesterday that the Twins and Mariners recently discussed a trade of OF Delmon Young for LHP Jarrod Washburn and C Jeff Clement.

If that's true -- and we haven't confirmed this - perhaps the Twins had plans to spin Clement off as part of another deal. The Twins have this Mauer guy at catcher, and one of their top prospects is catcher Wilson Ramos.

The Yankees have interest in Washburn, and could use a long-term option at catcher. Might the Twins have interest in Cano as well?

Aaron Heilman spends only about six weeks with the Mariners as they trade him to the Cubs for a shortstop and a pitcher.

In exchange for Heilman, the Mariners received shortstop Ronny Cedeno and left-hander Garrett Olson. Heilman, long coveted by Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, will compete for the Cubs' fifth-starter job or pitch out of their bullpen.

Cedeno will challenge both second baseman Jose Lopez and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt for starting jobs, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik told FOXSports.com.

So Zduriencik puts pressure on his middle infielders. Given Cedeno's poor career offensive numbers, however, there might not be that much pressure. Garrett Olson has horrible major league walk numbers, but good ones in the minors. The people who commented to this post on Olson's trade to the Cubs don't think much of him as a major league pitcher.

The Orioles traded for Felix Pie because that Corey Patterson deal worked out so well.

A year after they couldn't get Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs in the failed Brian Roberts talks, the Orioles acquired the multi-tooled outfielder today for starting pitcher Garrett Olson and Single-A pitcher Henry Williamson.

Pie, who the Orioles have coveted for the past couple of seasons, was out of options and going to have a hard time making the Cubs' Opening Day roster after their additions of outfielders Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright. With the Orioles, Pie, who turns 24 next month, is expected to be used in an outfield platoon with Ryan Freel. Luke Scott, who started 100 games in left field last season, will likely move to designated hitter with Aubrey Huff becoming the team's everyday first baseman.

Pie is someone who never translated his good minor league numbers into major league success. In this way, he's very similar to Corey Patterson. You would think the Orioles would have learned their lesson.

Of course the same can be said of Olson. He's a high K, low BB pitcher in the minors, the opposite in the majors. However, at age 24, I suspect he's just coming into his own as a pitcher. I'll go on record as saying I don't like this deal for the Orioles. I'm betting Olson has a lot more upside than Pie. Williamson also looks like he has some upside as well. Maybe the Orioles should have allowed Pie's options to expire and then pick him up off waivers.

Dave Sheinin reports that a deal between the Athletics and Nationals is close. Nick Johnson would be going to the A's:

It is unclear what players the A's would be willing to give up for Johnson, but the Nationals have shown previous interest in 23-year-old first baseman Daric Barton, and a deal centering upon Johnson and Barton would make sense for both sides.

The Nationals, who made a failed run at free agent Mark Teixeira this winter, are searching for a young first baseman with upside, and Barton, a former A's top prospect who is under club control until 2013, fits the bill. He hit .226/.327/.348 (batting average/on-base/slugging) with nine homers and 47 RBI in 523 plate appearances last year, but was a .299/.410/.456 hitter as a minor-leaguer.

While I love Nick Johnson, he takes forever to heal after an injury. Maybe Oakland can invent an airbag uniform that inflates whenever there's a chance of a collision. :-) That said, a four man lineup of Johnson, Cust, Holliday and Giambi should generate a bit of offense for Oakland.

The Angels deny they're interested in trading for Jermaine Dye.

A Jermaine Dye for Chone Figgins rumor surfaces at the Chicago Sun-Times.

According to a major-league scout, the Angels are the latest team to express interest in acquiring Jermaine Dye now that the Mark Teixeira ship has set sail to New York. Unlike the talks with the Reds that stalled during the Winter Meetings, the Sox and Angels actually have a fit.

The South Siders covet speed - with Williams telling the Sun-Times back in June that Figgins was "interesting.'' The Angels want a power bat to offer some protection for Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter.

The one problem is Los Angeles has a surplus of outfielders in Hunter, Guerrero, Gary Matthews and Juan Rivera, but could convert someone to first base, as well as platoon Guerrero and Matthews in the designated hitter spot.

Or maybe they can make it two for one with the White Sox taking Matthews off the Angels hands, with LAnaheim kicking in some money.

Michael Young asked the Rangers to trade him.

The Rangers would like to move Young to third to make room for highly touted prospect Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Andrus came to Texas in 2007 in the trade that sent Mark Teixeira (Mount St. Joseph) to the Atlanta Braves. Young, a career .300 hitter who has played nine seasons with Texas, earned his first American League Gold Glove award last season.

Young was okay at shortstop last year but didn't deserve the Gold Glove. A team picks him up for his offense at the position. Young is one of those players whose value lies mostly in his batting average. A career .300 hitter, his OBA is .346. If his batting average drops 20 points, he's suddenly below average at getting on base. He's lost some power the last two seasons also, so a team trading for him would be getting a shortstop on the downside of his career who is likely not to age well because he is too dependent on his batting average. (He did bring his walks up a little last season, so maybe he's adjusting.) In a trade, he's a short term fix.

He would help the Athletics, but I'm not sure Texas would trade in the division. The White Sox might be an option also.

La Velle Neal can't believe the Twins couldn't come up with a better package for Mark DeRosa than the Cubs.

The Cubs sent Mark DeRosa to the Indians today, teaming him one again with Kerry Wood:

The Cubs acquired three pitching prospects from the Indians for DeRosa -- left-hander John Stevens, who was added to the 40-man roster, lefty John Gaub and right-hander Chris Archer.

The addition of three prospects could signal the rekindling of talks with San Diego for right-hander Jake Peavy, now that Colorado has agreed in principle to take starter Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino, opening up a spot in the rotation.

DeRosa is a versatile players with a an above average OBA, meaning the Indians can use him wherever they see fit. He played six different positions in each of the last two seasons.

According to Baseball Reference, John Stevens is really Jeff Stevens and a righty. He's posted great strikeout and walk number in his career and keeps the ball in the park. Gaub is a lefty and strikes out a ton of low minor batters but shows little control. Archer is very young, but also not very impressive. Looks like a good trade, as the Cubs get a pitcher who should be useful this year, a good prospect and one that needs a good bit of polishing. The Indians get a solid offensive player who gives them a lot of flexibility in the field. A nice way for both teams to end the year.

The Cubs shipped Jason Marquis to the Rockies for setup man Luis Vizcaino:

The deal, first reported by ESPN, likely won't become official until next week. The Rockies made the math work to get a starter they have coveted for a month, while removing a setupman who asked to be dealt at season's end after expressing unhappiness with his role.

The Rockies will ship the $4 million remaining on Vizcaino's deal for the $9.875 million left on Marquis' contract. The Cubs are expected to eat around a $1 million on Marquis' contract, leaving the Rockies to pay approximately $5 million for one season of the right-hander.

Chicago, meanwhile, still nets a $5 million savings, crystallizing the motivation for both clubs.

I'm not crazy about this deal for the Rockies. Marquis's FIP has been higher than his ERA in four of the last five years, and the big park in Colorado is tough to defend. He does induce a high number of ground balls, however, and although he hasn't pitched much at Coors, the Rockies haven't hit him there. We'll see how he holds up over a full season.

Bleeding Blue and Teal analyzes a potential Hideki Matsui for Erik Bedard trade.

MouthpieceBlog looks at the Jake Peavy trade negotiations as a game of chess. However, I can't wait for this:

Tune in next time, when I compare interleague baseball to Hungry Hungry Hippos!

Might Jake Peavy be headed to the Brewers? Hat tip, Brew Crew Ball, which also makes this remark:

There's likely not any truth to the rumor that Doug Melvin has refused to make the trade until Brian Cashman agrees to send over all of his disappointing players.

The Mets acquire Connor Robertson from the Diamondbacks for Scott Schoeneweis. I don't understand this move from the Diamondbacks perspective. Robertson is nine years younger and struck out a high number of batters in the minor leagues. They must see something they don't like about him. Maybe he has a tendency toward fly balls, which would hurt him in Arizona? I'm curious what Arizona fans think of this deal.

The Mets, Mariners and Indians completed their 12-player swap. If nothing else, the Mariners certainly restocked with young players.

I couldn't find the story on the New York Daily News web site, but ESPN picks up their story that the Yankees traded Melky Cabrera to the Brewers for Mike Cameron.

The acquisition of Cameron would give the Yankees a veteran center fielder to hold the position until prospect Austin Jackson is ready for the big leagues.

Cameron a bit better OBA to the team and more power than Melky. He's a $10 million stop gap. It's clear right now that the Yankees want to win their first year in their new park, and the Brewers are dumping payroll. Maybe this will be the wake up call Cabrera needs (he'll be 24 this season), but at this point it seems the talent just isn't there.

Correction: Fixed the name of the team in the last paragraph.

Update: This deal hit a roadblock.

Bless You Boys opines on the Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson trade:

What I'll tell myself as I sign off for the night, however, is that maybe this trade won't ultimately be judged by itself. Could this be the precursor to another move? Might Jackson be flipped in another deal? Did Dave Dombrowski do this, knowing he has something in the works for one of his other starting pitchers? Then this trade might make sense to me. Right now, however, it doesn't quite smell right.

Jackson showed a big improvement in his ERA in 2008, but it was mostly due to giving up many fewer hits. That was probably attributable to Tampa Bay's improved defense, especially with Jackson's strikeout rate going down. I don't see this improving the Tigers staff.

Meanwhile, the Rays pick up another good, young player.

A coast to coast deal is in the works between the Mariners, Indians and Mets:

The Indians are reportedly involved in a three-team trade with the Mariners and Mets. The Mets would receive closer J.J. Putz from Seattle to set-up newly-signed closer Francisco Rodriguez.

As for the Indians, they would send outfielder Franklin Gutierrez and minor leaguers to the Mariners for infielder Luis Valbuena. They would also receive Mets right-hander Joe Smith.

But that's not all:

The Mets would receive Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed and right-hander Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners would receive Gutierrez from the Tribe and Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez and first baseman Matt Capps from the Mets.

If it goes down, this one will take a while to sort out. I wonder if Putz is really ready to assume the setup role? This makes C.J. Wilson the only AL West closer left.

Update: It's a done deal:

From the Mets' perspective, the deal is Heilman and Smith for Putz. Chavez and Reed are simply an exchange of backup outfielders, Smith and Green are an exchange of right-handed groundball specialists.

The Yankees just became a bit more attractive to Jake Peavy.

The trade of Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for Ryan Freel opened up space for a Baltimore prospect:

Orioles president Andy MacPhail,pictured, said the Hernandez deal was almost entirely about clearing a spot for Wieters to play regularly. "It had been our goal to introduce Matt on to the major league scene in the '09 season," he said. "As a franchise we realized our future was probably with [him]."

Wieters went from A to AA in 2008, his first season in professional baseball, and saw his numbers improve at the higher level. His numbers are better than Joe Mauer and Taylor Teagarden. He looks like the type of hitter that just doesn't have anything to prove in the minors.

Jake Peavy seems to think he's going to the Cubs, but the Cubs don't think so.

If Dayton Moore makes the Zack Greinke for Jeff Francoeur deal, I'm never saying anything nice about the GM again. What happened to the "better OBA" plan?

Update: Craig Brown squashes the rumor.

Rays Index explores the possibility of the Rays getting involved in the Jake Peavy deal with the goal of landing Brian Giles. One of the problems facing the Padres is both Peavy and Giles, two of their most valuable trading chips, hold strong no-trade options. Peavy's is built into his contract, while Giles is a 10-5 player. Unless the Padres can identify places these players want to play, or pay them off, they'll have a difficult time completing a deal.

Via The Hardball Times, the Rangers moved one of their catchers:

The Tigers acquired catcher Gerald Laird from the Texas Rangers late Sunday night, fulfilling one of their major off-season needs on the eve of baseball's winter meetings.

Detroit parted with two pitching prospects in the deal, right-handers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo.

Melo certainly impressed in Rookie League ball. He was seasonal age 17 and struck out 61 in 49 innings, mostly as a starter. Depsite allowing two home runs, however, his ERA was over 5.00. Still, this should be someone Nolan Ryan could develop into a pitch-count resistant hurler. He's young enough that he's the perfect test subject for Ryan's plans.

Moscoso suffered a shoulder injury at one point, but overall put up great minor league numbers. His low walk rate is most impressive, under 2.0 per nine innings. He's also old enough to step into the majors now. It's a very nice trade for the Rangers, getting good potential for an extra player. It also takes a team out of the market for a starting free-agent catcher, which should depress the market for Pudge and Varitek a bit.

Update: Billfer likes the trade.

Hal McCoy reports that the Reds are trading Homer Bailey to the White Sox for Jermaine Dye:

A major-league source close to the situation told The Dayton Daily News on Sunday, Dec. 7, "The deal is done and will be announced this week."

The Reds are in the market for an outfielder and moving Bailey makes sense. The 22-year-old righthander, the team's No. 1 draft pick in 2004, has not lived up to high expectations and some club officials believe a change of venue would be best for him.

Bailey was 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in eight starts with the Reds last year and was only 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA at Class AAA Louisville.

Bailey's seasonal age in 2009 will be 23, so he's still very young. His minor league strikeout and walk rates are still very good. If this deal happens, Bailey might turn out to be the next Edinson Volquez.

Dye's been up and down the last four seasons, but he's still an above average hitter. Both the White Sox and Reds home parks are good for long ball hitters, so Dye should be as comfortable in Cincinnati as on the south side.

Update: The Chicago Tribune has a source that says the deal is not going to happen. I love dueling sources.

The Rangers may be in a payroll squeeze. The team that once signed Alex Rodriguez to a record setting contract now may be moving players to save money.

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said the club has not been given a directive to significantly cut payroll, but he acknowledged the team could make a deal or two that would look that way.

"I wouldn't say we're in cost-cutting mode, but we're certainly conscious of all our expenditures," Daniels said. "We're going to look at all the ways to improve our club. For the most part, we've been focused on trying to add players who fit with our long-term plan. Those are younger players."

Frankly, that's not a bad strategy. The question for the Rangers as always is pitching, however. If they want to compete now, they need to add pitching now, and this may not be the best strategy for that.

Gaslamp Ball sums up a Kevin Tower interview on the Khalil Greene trade. The most interesting tidbit:

It's not a secret that they needed to reduce our payroll from $50 million and get closer to $40 million. The way the Padres looked at it, if they moved Khalil they would have a better chance to keep Peavy.

It seems obvious to me that if your choice is to keep Peavy or keep Greene, Khalil gets traded.

Gaslamp Ball experiences a deja vu moment over the Khalil Greene trade:

Trading away short stops who haven't quite lived up to promise to St. Louis? Something about this is vaguely familiar.

Of course, in the earlier trade, the Padres were supposed to be improving their offense.

Howard Sinker interprets Ron Gardenhire's comments in Fargo, ND as signaling the end of Delmon Young's career with the Twins:

According to the Fargo Forum, Gardy said he wants a starting outfield in 2009 of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and ...

... Michael Cuddyer.

Been nice knowing you, Delmon.

Gardenhire said about his outfielders-of-choice: "Those three guys need to play every day. Delmon is in the mix. He's a hell of a player, a hell of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there."

This is the strongest indication yet that Young is available to a team that can offer up something reasonable in return. Gardy told the Fargo group that teams have inquired about Young.

I'm not sure why Gardenhire values Cuddyer over Young. Delmon is seven years younger in seasonal age and put up better offensive numbers at age 22 than Cuddyer did at age 29. One would suspect that difference will only get bigger over the next few years as Young reaches his peak and Cuddyer declines.

It also seems to me that if a team wants to trade a player, they don't make him worth less by taking him out of the starting lineup in December.

It appears the Padres and Cardinals engineered a trade for Khalil Greene. The Padres will received some pitching, but the details are not known right now.

Greene should be a bit of an offensive improvement over Cesar Izturis. For his career, Greene hit much better on the road, PETCO Park killing his power. His 2008 slump, however, came from hitting very poorly away from San Diego.

Tyler Flowers goes to the White Sox to complete the deal for Javier Vazquez. In the minors he produced a great OBA and decent power. He's called a catcher, but he played a lot at first base his first two years in the minors. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence that he'll do well behind the plate in the majors. If his power develops more, however, I could see him as a very effective first baseman.

The deal is unofficial, but it appears that the White Sox traded Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.

With obvious holes in the rotation, Braves general manager Frank Wren has said he hopes to add two starting pitchers this winter. Atlanta pursued Padres ace Jake Peavy before Wren said last month "we have moved on and shifted our focus" after San Diego didn't agree to what he called "a strong package of players."

Trading away young players for Vazquez may not leave much if Atlanta still wants Peavy.

Vazquez is at worse an average pitcher, and will occasionally post very good seasons, as he did in 2001, 2003 and 2007. At least 2009 is an odd numbered year. Logan's major league career has seen too many walks and too many home runs, but he does strike out a good number of batters.

Reyes suffers from the same problem as Logan, although his minor league walk numbers are very good. Lillibridge hasn't played enough in the majors to make an impression, but at least at the minor league level he posted a good OBA for a shortstop. He's a cheap, possibly long-term solution at the position for the White Sox. We'll wait to see who Chicago lands as the last prospect.

Hat tip to Lone Star Ball.

Bleed Cubbie Blue does not believe Jake Peavy will land with the Cubs, because Lou Piniella is happy with his starting pitching.

The Oakland Athletics appear to have an interest in Nick Johnson. Do they reall want both corner infielders constantly on the disabled list?

There is an unconfirmed report that the Royals and Red Sox worked out a deal for Coco Crisp:

Sports radio station WHB 810 in Kansas City reported this morning that the Red Sox have traded center fielder Coco Crisp to the Royals for righthanded relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.

But during an on-air interview a few moments ago, Royals senior adviser Mike Arbuckle would not confirm that the deal was complete.

"I would say Coco is a good player and we're always interested in getting good players," said Arbuckle, who recently joined the Royals after working in the front office of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Crisp's career OBA is .331, which is okay, and an improvement over the Royals .320 mark of 2008. So, unlike the Mike Jacobs trade, the Royals would be moving toward their goal of a better team OBA, and ramping up their defense in center as well.

In the two seasons Ramirez picked up a decent amount of innings, he pitched well. He's good at keeping the ball in the park, strikes out batters without giving up too many walks. This looks like a good move for the Red Sox, trading away a spare part and improving the bullpen. We'll see if the deal actually goes down.

Update: The Red Sox confirmed the trade.

The Braves are officially out of the Peavy sweepstakes.

It looks like Ken Rosenthal was right on this one. The Padres don't have a deal with the Braves or the Cubs, and now they are looking to trade Jake Peavy to an American League team:

The Yankees and Angels could be next in line. At season's end, Peavy said he doesn't want to go to an American League team, but during the GM meetings at Dana Point last week, Towers said Peavy might be open to going to the Yankees and Angels.

If the Yankees and Angels become viable trade partners, Towers' leverage would increase, but because Peavy's consent is needed for a trade, that leverage is contingent on Peavy reversing his position. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, gave no indication Thursday night that Peavy suddenly has become excited about going to the AL, but he did not rule it out.

That Kei Igawa deal is looking better all the time. Igawa, Kennedy and one of the Yankees outfielders to San Diego for Peavy. His contract is relatively cheap for an ace, and gives the Yankees plenty of money leftover to sign Sabathia. That would give New York a rotation of CC, Peavy, Wang, Chamberlain and either Pettitte or Hughes as a fifth starter, or even Mike Mussina if he still wants to pitch. Not bad, and they'd still have enough money left over to sign either Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira.

Peter Abraham posts audio of Brian Cashman talking about the Swisher deal and sums it up also:

Swisher is not here to play CF. Cashman made that clear. He's here to play 1B. Cashman did not close the door to anything else happening (he never does), but it's pretty evident that they see Swisher playing 1B and having the ability to play LF or RF on occasion. That would enable them to keep Jorge Posada in the lineup once in a while as the 1B.

...

This move allows the Yankees to focus their attention (and money) on starting pitching. Mark Teixeira just lost a lot of leverage.

I wonder how much of that last bit was the plan all along. The Yankees might see how the bidding goes on Teixeira, and if it's not too high sweep in at the last moment with a great bid. That's pretty much how they got Johnny Damon. They made him a tough to refuse offer and gave him very little time to accept or reject it. It's easy enough to move Nick to the outfield if Cashman manages to land Teixeira anyway.

More likely, however, is that they'll buy two starting pitchers.

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs doesn't like the Cubs/Marlins trade in which Chicago appears to be replacing Kerry Wood with Kevin Gregg.

The Yankees acquired Kanekoa Texeira from the White Sox, along with a slightly better known player:

The New York Yankees acquired center fielder-first baseman Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday.

The Yankees traded infielder Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez to Chicago in exchange for the switch-hitting Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.

Swisher is coming off a very disappointing season. I would have thought moving from Oakland to Chicago would have improved his power because of the park. He did hit well in Chicago, but was abysmal on the road. His career road numbers are much better, so if 2008 was a fluke, the Yankees are getting a good hitter.

I'm not sure he's the answer at first, however. I would rather see him in right, and have the Yankees sign a real power hitter at first base.

As a minor league reliever, Texeira does exactly what a team wants; lots of strikeouts, few walks and a minuscule number of home runs.

New York dumps Wilson Betemit, but gives up two decent enough pitchers in Nunez and Marquez. In general, the trade makes the Yankees younger, and the White Sox get a utility infielder and two pitchers who might help them in the future.

If the Yankees play Swisher in the outfield, I like the deal for them. If they think he's the answer at first base, I think they'll be disappointed.

Hat tip to YFSF.

CBSSportsline says yes. Ken Rosenthal says maybe.

The Athletics-Rockies trade is official:

Matt Holliday hardly could have expected to land with the low-budget Oakland Athletics.

The A's completed their trade with the Colorado Rockies for the star outfielder Wednesday, securing the big bat Oakland sought for the middle of its order.

''Originally, it was a little bit of a surprise considering I've never been traded before,'' Holliday said. ''I spent my first 11 years of professional baseball in the Rockies organization. Any time you make a change there's a bit of an unknown.''

Colorado received right-handed reliever Huston Street, lefty starter Greg Smith and promising outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from the A's. The clubs reached a tentative agreement Monday, but had to wait for the results of physicals and other details to be worked out.

Now I wonder what other moves might come as a surprise from Oakland this winter? Maybe they'll sign a big name free agent!

The Nationals will hold a 3:30 PM EST news conference to announce their deal with the Marlins.

David OhNo at Purple Row explains why he likes the Holliday trade with Oakland.

The Florida Marlins are expected to send Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen to the Washington Nationals today (Tuesday).

The agent for starting pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham said Monday they are being traded from the Florida Marlins to the Washington Nationals. Agent Matt Sosnick said a news conference in the Washington area was being planned for Tuesday.

"They've both voiced they're excited for a fresh start. Neither of them has really played for anybody else except the Marlins," Sosnick said in a telephone interview. "They're both trying to process the information."

Willingham is a solid player. He should improve both the OBA and power of the Nationals, although that's not difficult to accomplish given their poor play in 2008. Olson will give the Nationals innings, but it's disconcerting to see his strikeout rate fall for the second year in a row. He struck out 8.3 batter per nine innings in 2006, 5.0 in 2008. Both players qualified for arbitration this season, however, and the Marlins would rather part with good but not great players rather than pay them a lot of money.

These moves, of course, open spots in the outfield and rotation, possibly filled by the two players acquired from Detroit last season, Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. The Nationals get better, but they're still a long way from contention. Willingham and Olsen are complementary players, not the centerpiece of a championship team.

Update: Does it seem the Marlins have shortened the player life cycle? There are teams, (the Athletics and Braves come to mind) that get as much as they can out of a player during the six years of control, and are then happy to let them walk via free agency and get a draft pick, or trade them just before they walk for prospects. The Marlins are now taking that down to three years. Their philosophy appears to be, pay someone as little as possible for as long as possible, then trade them for prospects. That way, there's always young, cheap talent coming up. Both are predicated on young players being just as good as older veterans. However, the traditional way of handling this (six years) allows teams to capture a player's prime.

In the case of Willingham, the Marlins did just that. He'll be 30 in 2009. So they also managed to get Willingham's prime at an extremely low cost. The Marlins front office really knows how to manage a roster and get a lot for a little.

Via Phillies Nation, Sports Illustrated reports the Athletics are close to a deal to land Matt Holliday. That would be an unusual deal for Oakland, trading for an established star. Are they trying to capture the draft picks they would receive when he leaves for free agency? Or, after two losing seasons are they afraid they are going to lose fans if they don't start winning again?

Update: Here's more on the deal:

The A's are working to complete a trade with the Rockies that would bring Matt Holliday to Oakland in exchange for reliever Huston Street, starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, major-league sources said Monday.

Smith confirmed Monday that he is flying to Denver for a physical in the next day or two.

"I don't know how official everything is," Smith said. "All I know is I've been called, and I'm flying to Denver probably tomorrow."

He emphasized he does not know any details about other players who might be involved in a deal.

Street is the only sure thing in the deal. Smith was a high strikeout, low walk pitcher in the minors, but a low strikeout, high walk pitcher his rookie season in the majors. Gonzalez put up okay OBA and power numbers in the minors, but very poor number in half a season in the majors. It's better than getting nothing for Holliday, but I really wonder if he wouldn't be worth more at the trading deadline.

The Cardinals announced they are not pursuing Matt Holliday:

Mozeliak insisted Sunday that discussions involving Colorado Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday have ceased and that "nothing is imminent. That one's not happening -- at all."

Irritated that details of his discussions with Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd had leaked, Mozeliak did not deny the seriousness of the talks but took exception to momentum assigned them.

"For me to say there were not serious discussions would be inaccurate," Mozeliak said. "But some of the details reported about it were misleading, at the very least. It was never my intention for it to become front-page news."

It appeared the Rockies wanted too many players for Holliday, who may walk at the end of next season to test free agency.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia idolizes Jason Varitek, and would love to catch with him in Boston. A scout analyzes the two:

Saltalamacchia is far from Varitek defensively, but a veteran scout who has watched both of them said, "They are very similar. Jason wasn't a finished product at 23 years old, either. It took a lot of work to get him where he is right now.

"Jason just made the decision that 'I'm going to pull this off' and he went about it by putting his nose in the sand and making it happen. Salty has a chance to get there, too. I think the difference might be that Salty is going to hit and hit for power. He's a big kid and he looks like he could be an offensive force."

When Saltalamacchia was apprised of those comments, he said, "Oh my God, that's so amazing. I just want to get my catching abilities where Jason is."

Reaching that goal would certainly make Saltalamacchia a very valuable free agent when his time comes.

Bill Lee rants on how the Red Sox losing the 1975 World Series led to the Manny Ramirez trade:

If the team had won the World Series in 1975, Lee said, he would have been mayor.

"And if I had been mayor, I would have banned private vehicles in downtown Boston," Lee said. "We would have all been walking, we'd all be cross-country skiing and we'd all be in better shape. And if we were all in better shape, there'd be no parking and (Boston parking czar Frank) McCourt would never have been able to buy the Dodgers and Manny would never have gone to LA."

I do agree that everyone should walk in downtown Boston.

Jake Peavy may block a trade to the Braves, because the trade weakens Atlanta!

"Escobar's a pretty good player," Axelrod said. "To be honest, Jake and I have said, 'If that kind of trade gets made, who plays short for them?'"

...

"One of the things we will want to look at some point is, 'Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make this deal?'" Axelrod said. "If Team X trades three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance of being a successful team."

I don't remember a player using his no-trade in this way. Sure, they may prevent a deal to a non-competitive team, but I don't remember one judging the competitiveness of the team based on who the acquiring team traded away.

Tim Brown floats this rumor about a three-way trade between the Yankees, Mariners and Rockies:

One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Holliday.

Bleeding Blue and Teal feels this deal should not be sealed.

Wow, if this has any truth I will be insanely angry. There is no way that the most we can get for Rowland-Smith is Matsui, who is an aging, below average defensive outfielder. Sure, his bat is definitely a positive, but in two of the past three seasons he's been hurt, and been limited to less than 100 games.

On the other hand, if I'm the Yankees with a need for pitching, I'm stopping at Matsui for Rowland-Smith. He's a pretty good pitcher, and I really like his minor league strikeout and walk numbers. With the Yankees poor defense, they need pitchers who keep the ball out of play.

Joe Posnanski complained the other day that the Royals were not sticking to their plan to acquire hitters with a high OBA. Now we hear from Sabernomics that Jeff Francoeur is at the top of the Royals acquisition list. If the Royals do trade for Francoeur, Moore will start moving into the Dave Littlefield space of GMs, who talk a better game than they deliver.

The City of Champions floats the rumor of a trade between the Marlins and Dodgers. The story is Scott Olsen and Dan Uggla for Russell Martin.

If this deal came to fruition, it would be the fourth good catcher in a row traded to a Florida team by the Dodgers. They sent Mike Piazza and Paul Lo Duca to the Marlins. They also traded away Dioner Navarro to the Rays (although Dioner was not good yet). I wonder if Dodger fans will be as upset about Martin as they were about Lo Duca. That turned out to be the right move. I'm not so sure about this one.

Update: The rumor denied.

I wonder if the value the Padres gain by trading Jake Peavy isn't lost by the Padres trading Khalil Greene?

The consensus of polled general managers is that Jake Peavy will be traded.

Peavy is a valuable commodity due to his under market contract. Since the Padres don't feel that the money saved on Peavy can be used to turn them into winners while keeping Jake, a trade is in the offing.

As much as I understand these deals, I really don't like them. Maybe it goes back to Bill James's article on the Oakland Athletics in his 1985 Baseball Abstract. After giving reasons why the A's might come out ahead on the Henderson trade, James concludes:

Butt (sic) I wouldn't have made it. Did they get a fair price for Rickey Henderson? It's kind of like if you're an art collector and you have the Mona Lisa, what's a fair price for it? The idea in building a championship team is to acquire players like Rickey Henderson. It's a sad day when you have to give one away.

The A's did do well in the Henderson trade, although Jose Rijo came back to bite them in 1990. The Padres may make out well also, but it may be three or four years before we know that for sure.

I was going to link to this Joe Posnanski post on the Mike Jacobs trade anyway, but the Music Man reference sealed the deal before I even finished the article.

Evan Grant notes the Rangers depth of catching talent puts them in an excellent position to acquire starting pitching via the trade route.

The Rangers have a little something to offer anybody seeking catchers.

Want an experienced big league starter whose contract is still affordable and who would be under a club's control for more than one year? There is Gerald Laird, who can't become a free agent until after 2010.

Aren't too worried about defense, but need some power and plate discipline? The Rangers can discuss Max Ramirez.

Want to gamble on a toolsy top prospect who has struggled at the major league level but has the potential to be a franchise catcher? That would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Rangers could deal all of them and still hold on to Taylor Teagarden, who hit .319 with a 1.205 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in September.

When two of my college roommates took introductory economics, they liked to make fun of the example, "The US has a comparative advantage in baseball bats. Japan holds a comparative advantage in Saki. Therefore, international trade will occur." With the Rangers holding such an advantage in catching, trades almost certainly will happen.

The Marlins and Royals make a deal:

The Marlins made their first trade of the offseason Thursday, sending first baseman Mike Jacobs to Kansas City for right-handed reliever Leo Nuñez.

Jacobs is a one-dimensional power hitter. As one dimensions go, power is a good one. Nunez has seen his ERA come down each of the last three years. His real strength appears to be keeping the ball in the park, at least in 2008.

Moving Jacobs opens up a spot for Gaby Sanchez, who at the minor league level showed Jacobs power with a much better ability to get on base. If Sanchez comes up and posts a .350 OBA and a .470 slugging percentage, this will be a nice improvement for the Marlins.

Jake Peavy is going to use his no-trade clause to capture the home town discount he gave San Diego if he is traded:

Translation: if you don't give us cut, we'll exercise the no-trade clause. Peavy can use his veto power to make sure that he captures a good portion of the economic rents generated by his contract.

This is very interesting to me. The Padres got a good deal out of Jake because he wanted to stay in San Diego. If they had signed him for more money, but without the no-trade clause, they likely would still have an under-market contract. They then could trade him and reap the rewards in prospects. With Jake and his agent standing up for themselves, the Padres may end up with Jake the continuing to pitch for a poor team.

This may change the Padres mind on offering no-trade clauses in the future. In general, salaries tend to rise faster than anyone expects. So a fair contract today may be under-market tomorrow. Paying a bit more for a no-trade clause is likely well worth it in that scenario.

Red Reporter wonders if the Cincinnati Reds should go after Adrian Beltre:

Fun Fact: The last time Beltre was playing for a contract, he batted .334/.388/.629 for the Dodgers and hit 48 home runs while finishing 2nd in the MVP race.

I wonder if that will go down as one of the great contract seasons sever, at least compared to the rest of his career. With Cleveland also looking to make a move at third, Ohio appears to be ground zero in the hot corner hot stove this winter.

The Cleveland Indians may use one of their excess outfielders to acquire Mark Teahen to a move to solidify third base.

Talks are believed to center on three possibilities for the Royals in the deal: Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco and minor-leaguer Trevor Crowe.

The Royals previously tried to pry either Gutierrez or Francisco from the Indians when shopping reliever Octavio Dotel midway through the 2007 season.

...

The Indians are searching for a third baseman after souring on Andy Marte as a replacement for veteran Casey Blake, whom they traded in July to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Over the last four seasons, Indians third basemen produced a .247/.310/.377 line. Teahen's career spans that time, and his averages are .268/.322/.421. He will be seasonal age 27 in 2009, the age when players reach their peak. With luck, he'll improve off a down year with a move back to third base.

Paul DePodesta does an excellent job of explaining why the Padres might trade Jake Peavy. His summary:

So, to answer the most basic question: are we going to trade Jake Peavy? We'll see if someone offers us a compelling deal that makes us better.

The whole post is well worth the read.

It looks like we'll spend a good deal of the winter wondering where Jake Peavy will land.

Ted Berg weighs in on how a story about the Mets being willing to talk about trading Carlos Beltran erupted into a rumor that he was going to the Yankees for Cano and Kennedy.

Joe Christensen now thinks Johan Santana for Jon Lester straight up would have been a good trade.

With the CC Sabathia deal done, Waiting For Next Year reviews the transaction from both sides.

The Padres received two minor league pitchers to complete the trade for Greg Maddux. Both are very young. Eduardo Perez is still at Rookie Ball at age 20. Michael Watt is just 19. Both post high strikeout rates, low walks and low home runs allowed.

Bugs and Cranks suggests a New York trade involving their two third base stars, David Wright and Alex Rodriguez. I was talking to my friend Jim Storer about this yesterday, more sarcastically than anything else. (I think the conversation started with, "David Wright is no Scott Brosius.") I'm guessing the Yankees would jump at the offer. They'd get younger and save a ton of money without losing too much in the way of offense. This, however, goes in the "no chance in hell" folder.

It looks like the Tigers lost out in more ways than one with the Kyle Farnsworth/Ivan Rodriguez deal. They thought they were getting a type B free agent in Farnsworth, which would have netted them a draft pick. It appears now that Pudge will be a type B free agent, not Farnsworth.

Micah Owings, the player to be named later in the Adam Dunn deal, made his Reds debut tonight. Instead of coming out of the bullpen, however, he came off the bench to deliver an RBI double in the tenth inning to give the Reds a 3-2 lead over Micah's former team, the Arizona Diamondbacks. If Francisco Cordero and preserve the lead, the DBacks fall to 4 1/2 games behind the Dodgers.

Maybe the DBacks should have waited until after they played the Reds to finish the trade. :-)

Update: Cordero gets the save and the Diamondbacks season looks over.

The Reds and Diamondbacks completed the Adam Dunn deal today. Micah Owings goes to the Cincinnati Reds. I wonder if they'll add him to their young pitching staff or make him Dunn's replacement in the outfield? Given how poorly he pitched this season, the Reds may be better off with the latter move.

Brew Crew Ball notes that the team which gets to choose the player to be named later in the Sabathia deal depends on Milwaukee making the playoffs. If they do, Cleveland gets to choose. If not, Milwaukee gets to pick.

Just in the nick of time, the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired David Eckstein from Toronto for pitcher Chad Beck. I wonder if they are looking for Eckstein to improve the OBA at shortstop or the batting average at second base?

Beck is in his third year of A ball. The Diamondbacks couldn't seem to decide if he should be a starter or a reliever. Maybe the Blue Jays can give him some direction.

Via Phillies Nation, the Phillies acquire Matt Stairs from Toronto for a player to be determined. He'll be the replacement for Geoff Jenkins.

Stairs power disappeared this season as he's slugging just .394. He can still draw a walk, however. He may not be able to get the big hit in a rally, but he won't kill one either.

ESPN reports that the Braves and Red Sox are close to a deal that would send Mark Kotsay to Boston.

It appears Eddie Guardado is headed back to the Twins for Mark Hamburger. Eddie's having a good year out of the pen, giving up just three home runs in 49 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .220 with a .286 OBA. Plus, he's only pitched in 55 games. Not used everyday, his arm must be far from tired! :-)

Hamburger is just 21 years old. His ERA is high in rookie ball this season, but his strikeouts, walks and home runs are all good, just what you want in a reliever. This could be a juicy pickup for the Rangers down the line, as long as they don't fry his arm.

Toronto picks up Jose Bautista from the Pirates:

On the other hand, it is important to remember that even though Bautista's been languishing in Indianapolis since August 10, he's still hit more homers in 2008 (12) than anyone on the Jays roster.

That's just sad.

Peter Abraham points out that the Ivan Rodriguez trade hurt both teams. Especially damning is this:

Andy Pettitte threw to him once then asked not to again.

Pudge's defensive credentials are based on his ability to stop the running game. I've heard others question his game calling skills before, but never so directly.

It looks like Greg Maddux will become a Dodger today. It's his second stint with the club:

Maddux, who has 353 career victories, has pitched well in his last three starts, posting a 2-1 record and 1.89 ERA in that span. In his last start, he dropped a decision to the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday even though he held them to a run and five hits over seven innings.

He has had trouble away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where he has a 2.62 ERA. His road ERA is 5.75.

To make the deal happen, Maddux had to waive his full no-trade clause.

Maddux also pitched 10 games this season in which he went at least six innings, allowed three runs or less and received a loss or a no decision, including his most recent performance against the Phillies. Despite a lack of strikeouts, he's pitched well against the Dodgers this season.

Joe Christensen updates the reasons the trade for Jarrod Washburn fell apart. The Mariners did not turn down a trade for Boof Bonser.

Lookout Landing is just a tiny bit upset the Mariners turned now a deal that would send them Boof Bonser for Jarrod Washburn:

Boof Bonser is a 26 year old righty with two years of service time and a career 4.70 tRA that's 5% above the league average. His 2008 salary is $0.4325m and he won't be eligible for free agency until the winter of 2012. Evidently the Mariners came to the conclusion that, in exchange for Washburn, he wasn't enough.

To summarize, Bonser:

-is better than Washburn
-is younger than Washburn
-is cheaper than Washburn
-is under team control for longer than Washburn

And somehow we were the ones to turn down the deal.

Are we sure the Mariners actually replaced Bill Bavasi?

Update: Joe Christensen updates this deal, and it seems the Mariners didn't turn down Bonser for Washburn.

SportsHubLA examines the different receptions Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira received from fans of their new teams.

Also, there was some attachment among Angels fans to the guy they gave away. Casey Kotchman isn't as good a player as Teixeira, but was so deeply steeped in Angelness he practically had wings and a harp. The fans loved him. He was one of their guys. I was shocked, reading through the chat boards on sites like Halos Heaven and 6-4-2, as to how many people were angry they moved Kotchman in the deal, even for a superstar power bat like Teixeira. Is Kotchman a good player, likely to get better? Sure. Still, I was surprised he was all it took to get Teixeira. It was a no-brainer for GM Tony Reagins.

I would also suggest that because Teixeira was a Ranger for so long, the Angels fans are used to rooting against him. That feeling may take a while to fade.

Jarrod Washburn was claimed on waivers, and the Mariners will try to work a deal by Thursday afternoon:

The Yankees were not the team that claimed Washburn, sources say. They had interest in the pitcher before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, but consider their hitting to be a greater problem than their starting pitching.

The White Sox, another team in need of starting pitching, have indicated that they do not consider Washburn a fit.

Could Texas have claimed him?

This should make Reds fans a bit happier about the Dunn trade. One of the players to be named later is Micah Owings.

It's unclear if Owings has yet to be placed on waivers. He will have to clear waivers if he is to be traded before the end of the season.

It's possible that Owings has been placed on waivers already and was claimed by another team, at which point the Diamondbacks would have pulled him back off waivers. That would mean he would not be able to be traded until the conclusion of the regular season.

It's also unclear is Owings' physical condition could be a factor in the deal. He is expected to miss his start Wednesday with shoulder stiffness.

He can take over for Dunn in leftfield and pitch. Owings started this season well but hasn't pitched well since the start of June. It makes you wonder how much his stock has dropped in the last year and a half. The Diamondbacks wouldn't give him up in the Randy Johnson trade, but he goes as a PTBNL in a trade for Dunn.

My latest column at SportingNews.com examines what the Pirates pitching trades says for the future of the team.

The Red Sox picked up Paul Byrd off the waiver wire today:

The Boston Red Sox acquired pitcher Paul Byrd from Cleveland on Tuesday, hoping to boost a rotation hurt by an injury to Tim Wakefield and the struggles of Clay Buchholz.

The Red Sox will send either a player to be named or cash to the Indians.

The 37-year-old Byrd is 7-10 with a 4.53 ERA this season. But he has won all four of his starts since the All-Star break with a 1.24 ERA.

The only thing that's changed for Byrd since the all-star break is his home runs allowed. He gave up 23 before the break, 0 since. If this is a real adjustment instead of a lucky streak, he should be able to help the Red Sox.

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquire Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds:

The Diamondbacks acquired slugger Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds today in exchange for minor league pitcher Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.

Dunn is a free agent at the end of the season. He's likely to be a rental player. Arizona leftfielder have a .308 OBA and a .387 slugging percentage. Dunn, despite a low batting average, posts a .376 OBA and a .528 slugging percentage. A very good move for the Diamondbacks. Dunn hits for power so well he might actually make up for some that was lost with the injury to Hudson as well.

Dallas Buck looks okay, but not great. It will be interesting to see who else the Reds get out of this deal.

The Commissioner's office started an investigation into the Manny Ramirez trade:

Here's why Selig's office is looking into the matter:

The Red Sox had an option to retain Ramírez in 2009 for $20 million. They had the same option for 2010. Ramírez, who will turn 37 next season, wanted to be a free agent at the end of this season. His agent wanted the same thing. Boras inherited Ramírez's old contract and stood to earn nothing until Manny signed a new one. It was in the interest of the player and the agent to have the options dropped.

Manny's only leverage was withholding services and playing at half speed. So that's what he did.

So Manny acted like a jerk in order to get traded. That's a tried and true way to force clubs into action. I remember Billy Sample talking about this in 1991 during his time on Baseball Tonight. You mouth off a lot, become a bad person in the clubhouse. He didn't talk about not playing hard, but how can you measure that? Manny gone half speed plenty of times in the past. What makes this different?

Waiver deals are starting to happen. The Tampa Bay Rays get Chad Bradford from the Orioles.

The Rays claimed the submarining right-hander on waivers, then got him from the Orioles in a trade for a player to be named.

The 33-year-old Bradford is 3-3 with a 2.45 ERA this year. The durable reliever has made 47 appearances and thrown 40 1-3 innings.

The Tampa defense needs to be at their best with Bradford on the mound. His K per 9 is way down this season, just 2.9 K per 9 innings. He does, however, have great control and gives up few home runs. He certainly adds depth to the Rays bullpen.

The Marlins broadcast reported the Phillies picked up Scott Eyre from the Cubs for a minor leaguer. Scott is having a strange season as he's giving up lots of hits despite lots of strikeouts.

Update: Here's the story on Eyre.

Some team claimed Brian Giles on waivers and the Padres are trying to make a deal. That team may be Texas, and Lone Star Ball wonders why they would be interested.

Update: YFSF points to reports that the Red Sox claimed Giles. Sounds like a backup plan if one or both of Ortiz/Youkilis are really injured.

Sixty Feet, Six Inches looks in detail at the haul the Pirates received for Jason Bay.

Steve Silva at Extra Bases does an excellent job of rounding up the reaction to the Manny Ramirez trade. There will be a news conference on the field at Dodger Stadium tonight.

I'd like to add one thing to this story. Manny, to a certain extent, has moved criticism from his playing ability to his personality. Remember the story of the off season? Manny was working out and was going to be in the best shape of his life. Despite the intense training, Ramirez put up numbers very similar to last year, with a little more power. The Red Sox had to look at that and say to themselves, "He worked his butt off this winter and he didn't improve much. The decline is real. Let's wait this out."

Manny probably thought he would come out like gangbusters, reaching 500 home runs quickly and wowing the front office with his return to dominance. Age, however, is eroding Manny's skills. He's so good that he can still be the best player on many teams playing at a lower level, but teams will pause before committing to an expensive, long term deal.

I suspect that was the big cause of the breakdown. Manny didn't meet his own expectations, but couldn't blame himself. He worked hard, said the right things to the press, even showed up to spring training on time. The Red Sox front office, however, saw the numbers, and the numbers said wait. Ramirez wouldn't accept that, so he acted in such a way that the Red Sox had to trade him, and received his wish.

It's too bad. Terry Francona, the front office, the players, and a good deal of Red Sox Nation cut Manny a lot of slack for a number of years. They respected Manny's ability to perform on the field. Ramirez should have more respect for their generosity.

I was just looking at the VORP difference between Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny's VORPr (runs per game) is .378, Bay is .309. Over 54 games that mean Manny would generate 20.4 runs over replacement, Bay 16.7. Four runs isn't much over 1/3 of a season.

Juan Pierre is the highest ranked Dodgers leftfielder at 0.029. Over 55 games, that's 1.6 runs over replacement. Manny would be at 20.8. That's two wins, and can easily make the difference in the pennant race in the NL West.

When I told my wife Manny Ramirez as going to play for Joe Torre, she said:

He worked for Steinbrenner and survived cancer, he can handle Manny.

Ken Rosenthal says the three-way deal that would move Manny Ramirez is dead.

Curt Schilling is his usual frank self in this interview:

On Manny's effort running up the first-base line on a ground ball behind third base during John Lackey's no-hit bid on Tuesday night.

"I laugh at the fact that people are like, 'Oh my God, I can't believe that... on this night he didn't...," like that night was any different than any other night for him. .. It's stunning to me that it just was OK I guess, the other day for things to go the way they went. It's gonna be funny to watch all the people jump if Manny does get traded and things happen, how many people in the media area going to come out of the woodwork and say, 'you players are idiots, you let him be like this for so long,' and the media's given him, for the mos part, every bit the free ride everybody else has... I thought it was telling the other night when someone asked about Manny's run down to first and I thought Terry's answer was something like, 'well, he does that a lot.' Think about that. That's someone saying, 'what do you think about this guy half-assing down the line and the manager saying, 'yeah, that happens a lot.' Again, things you kind of look at and go, 'What, we just move on?' Why is that the breaking point for people. Why after all this stuff in all the years, why is that like the breaking point?"

I wrote my answer three years ago.

I believe the same thing is true of Manny. It doesn't matter that Manny is better than Sosa over his full career. What matters is that people are willing to excuse his actions because of his greatness. Once Manny's production falls to a level that's easily replaced, the fans won't be so forgiving. Rather than pleas to keep Manny when he wants to sit out a game, Red Sox fans will be calling for his head.

This deal makes no sense to me, unless Dye or Thome is secretly injured:

Despite all his achievements, Griffey's productivity has been limited in recent years due to injuries. It is unclear where the White Sox plan on playing him, since they have Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye playing the corner outfield positions. Griffey has played primarily in right field over the last two seasons for the Reds.

Griffey is no longer the fielder who won 10 straight Gold Gloves patrolling center field for the Mariners, so, unless the White Sox think he can return to center, perhaps he is headed for some time at first base. Chicago's current first baseman, Paul Konerko, is hitting .214 with nine homers and 35 runs batted in this season.

If you want to replace Konerko, it probably makes more sense to put Thome there and DH Griffey. We'll see what happens.

Update: Fox says Griffey accepted the deal.

It looks like the Marlins picked up Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes missed a season due to Tommy John surgery, but has pitched well in 22 innings this season. His strikeouts are high, he hasn't allowed a home run, but his walks are high.

Because my internet access is iffy today, here's a post that you can use to comment on whatever happens this morning and this afternoon.

Manny Ramirez continues to act like he wants to be traded:

No one disputes Ramirez is on the market. His often turbulent relationship with the Red Sox took a new twist Sunday when he said, "I'm tired of them. They're tired of me."

On Wednesday, he spoke by telephone with ESPNdeportes.com.

"The Red Sox don't deserve a player like me," Ramirez said. "During my years here I've seen how they have mistreated other great players when they didn't want them to try to turn the fans against them."

As for the Marlins, I disagree with this:

The trade would seem improbable because Ramirez makes nearly as much as the Marlins' entire roster - he's in the final guaranteed season of his eight-year, $160 million contract. The Red Sox have options for each of the next two seasons at $20 million.

The Marlins' payroll of $22 million is by far the smallest in the majors. They're among the most surprising teams in the majors, and a 7-5 victory Wednesday over the New York Mets left them 11/2 games behind NL East leader Philadelphia. The Mets fell a half-game behind the Phils.

The Marlins are sitting on all their revenue sharing money. They can not only afford Manny, they probably have enough money to corner the market on Ramirez's if they could pry Aramis from the Cubs. :-) This is the kind of deal Florida should have made in 2006. We'll see if they make it now.

Bilfer at The Detroit Tigers Weblog thinks Detroit should have received more for Pudge:

Farnsworth kind of fills a need, but not that well. The Tigers don't take a huge hit in terms of production and aren't giving up on the season. But my issue is that I think the Tigers could have done better for Pudge. He's having a good year at a hard to fill position. Factor in the loss of a draft pick and it's not good. No young player coming back? Not awful, but Dave Dombrowski failed to maximize Pudge's value. Yankees win this one easy.

Update; Replacement Level Yankees Weblog picks up on the free agent angle as well and likes the deal.

Brian Cashman reunites Alex and Ivan Rodriguez. With A-Rod and I-Rod in the fold, can E-Rod, O-Rod, U-Rod and sometimes Y-Rod be far behind!

The Tigers get Kyle Farnsworth. Cashman admits the move is a gamble:

"Pudge is an everyday guy," Cashman said. "You get an everyday catcher who will catch your staff for nine innings ... versus someone who is doing an outstanding job for us in the eighth inning.

"It is robbing Peter to pay Paul, no doubt about it."

Jose Molina's defense is great, but the Yankees lose little with Pudge behind the plate and gain a good deal of offense. I-Rod is very hot over his last 30 games, coming out of a 1 1/2 year OBA slump. I guess the hope is:

1. Pudge gives them enough offense that they have big leads in the eighth inning.
2. Veras and Marte are able to shoulder the load, with occasional help from Mariano Rivera picking up a long save.

The Yankees are certainly going for playoffs. I get the feeling they're going to try to win one more before George dies, but without giving away the farm. It's going to be tough.

It looks like there's a 50-50 chance that Jason Bay could end up with the Rays. More OBA and some pop is just what the team needs, and Bay is a good choice.

Gregg Zaun expressed his desire to be traded during an mlb.com interview Tuesday:

Zaun became the first Jay to openly express interest in leaving the club yesterday when he told mlb.com it would "probably be a good thing" if he were traded to a contender. After beginning the season as the team's frontline catcher, Zaun has recently been relegated to the backup's role by the emergence of Rod Barajas.

"I'm just disappointed that he went to the media with this," general manager J.P. Ricciardi said when told of Zaun's comments. "We have a good enough relationship that he can talk to me."

Ricciardi ends up looking a bit foolish over that remark:

The 37-year-old catcher said he had requested a trade from Ricciardi "quite a ways back." Zaun is in the final year of a two-year, $7.25 million (all figures U.S.) deal.

"We'll gladly move him if we can find someone who wants him and that's where we're at," Ricciardi said. "Right now, there's been no takers for him, there's been no inquiries about him."

He's a switch hitting catcher who still posts a decent OBA. I find it tough to believe no one is interested in him at all. Maybe the Jays are asking for too much.

In 1993, the Atlanta Braves faced a problem. They consistently trailed the San Francisco Giants in the middle of July by 8 or 9 games. Their first baseman, Sid Bream, hit like a poor shortstop. So they traded three prospects for Fred McGriff, having an off year for the Padres. The three prospects amounted to very little, but McGriff caught fire power wise and helped the Braves to a great comeback. (The change of park probably helped.)

Tuesday, trailing the NL East leader consistently by 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 games over three weeks, the Braves trade a top hitting first baseman away. While Casey Kotchman is no Sid Bream, he's still hitting below average for a major league first baseman.

First Basemen, 2008

Stat	Teixeira	Kotchman	ML Average
Batting Average	.283	.287	.271
On-Base Average	.390	.327	.354
Slugging Percentage	.512	.448	.454

The Braves have changed. Frank Wren made a trade that turned a strength into a weakness. John Schuerholz did just the opposite during his tenure. He was excellent at identifying a weakness on the Braves, and trading for or signing a player to shore up the position. Wren certainly has a huge hole in the outfield with Jeff Francoeur and needs help in the back of the rotation. By not addressing the real weaknesses of the team, Wren shows that he doesn't understand the model that made the Braves successful for well over a decade.

Baseball Digest Daily just sent an email that Mark Teixeira is headed to the Angels for Casey Kotchman.

More details to follow but according to 890 ESPN Boston, the Atlanta Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and more. Thanks to our own Brian Joseph for the update.

More to come.

Update: Here's the story from SportingNews.com:

The Los Angeles Times reported on its website today that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have acquired the slugging first baseman from the Atlanta Braves for first baseman Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek. The Angels pulled Kotchman off the field at Fenway Park this afternoon to inform him of the trade.

Kotchman is a super two, meaning the Braves control him for three more years as he avoided arbitration with a $1.45 million deal this season. There really isn't much of a comparison between the two first basemen. Kotchman's had two good years in terms of OBA, but for his career it's just .327. He has little power for the position with a career .426 slugging percentage.

Teixeira is just three years older, still in his prime, and averages a .373 OBA/.526 slugging percentage for his career.

Marek might turn out to be okay. He's putting up a decent ERA in his first season at AA, and for his career his strikeouts look good, while his HR are a just okay. Frankly, I suspect the Braves could have done better with the two draft picks they'd recieve if Teixeira walked.

The Angels made a very good deal here. With the best record in the league despite not having the best run differential, Teixeira could help them live up to that record the rest of the way.

Dave Cameron looks at Mark Teixeira's value in trade and concludes he would not be a difference maker for any of the potential suitors.

I have to disagree that Boston is out of it. It's possible there is some multi-team deal that allows the Red Sox to move Manny and replace his offensive productions with Teixeira at first and Youkilis is left, or upgrading another weak position. I think the odds of it happening are low, but it depends on how much Boston wants to get rid of Manny right now.

The Red Sox may have some interest in Miguel Tejada:

The Boston Red Sox have contacted the Astros about Miguel Tejada, and the All-Star shortstop wouldn't be intimidated about playing at Fenway Park if a deal is made.

According to a person familiar with the talks, the Red Sox would like Tejada if they ultimately trade Manny Ramirez.

It seems the Red Sox may be taking a trade for Manny more seriously than I thought they would.

With Matt Treanor not getting healthy as quickly as expected, the Marlins could turn out to be a good trading partner for the Texas Rangers. Florida stock-piled pitching the last few years, and the Rangers own plenty of catchers. Seems like a perfect match.

Cardinals Diaspora examines rumors that St. Louis might trade for A.J. Burnett or Roy Halladay. Halladay's cost would be very high in terms of prospects, so a trade for Burnett sits at a higher probability.

Baseball Time in Arlington notes that with four catchers in the Rangers fold, teams are inquiring about the availability of Gerald Laird.

Not surprisingly, the Rangers' catching quartet is at the forefront of those talks. At least 20 teams have inquired about at least one of Laird, Saltalamacchia, Ramirez or Teagarden, with the Cincinnati Reds - who reportedly assigned a scout to McAfee Coliseum to watch Laird on Sunday - and New York Yankees thought to be the most interested parties to such a potential deal.

It makes sense. Good catching talent is tough to develop. With an abundance of talent at the important defensive position, Texas should be able to fill other holes, either now or over the winter.

The Yankees are sending two different players on the back end of the Pirates deal.

The package the YankeesNew York Yankees surrendered for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte is not as originally reported. It is fronted by outfielder Jose Tabata and pitcher Ross OhlendorfRoss Ohlendorf , but the other two pitchers the Yanks gave up in the trade are Jeff KarstensJeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen.

The original trade did have Phil Coke George Kontos in it, but the Pirates had enough concerns about the medical reports on Kontos and Coke that they decided to do Karstens and McCutchen instead.

It looks like the Indians are being both sellers and buyers. They trade a minor leaguer to the Cardinals for Anthony Reyes. He's a pitcher who was great in the minors but struggled in the majors. Maybe the Indians think they can turn him around with Meloan. They give up Luis Perdomo, who looked pretty good in the low minors.

The Dodgers acquired Casey Blake for two minor leaguers, pitcher Jonathan Meloan and catcher Carlos Santana. Even if Blake falls back to his career norms, he'll be a big improvement over this season's Dodgers third basemen.

I assume the Indians are looking at Santana to replace Martinez when he eventually moves to first base. He was rising slowly through the Dodgers system. After a poor 2007 he's rebounded with an excellent 2008. Meloan posted great strikeout, walk and home run numbers in the minors. Pitching at AAA this season, however, he's walked a ton of batters.

This looks like a good trade for both teams as the Dodgers are solid at catcher and Blake is a good but not great player. Cleveland will be looking for Santana to make a smooth transition to the majors.

There's been a number of rumors about Jason Bay and Xavier Nady lately. The Nady rumors are over:

Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from Pittsburgh for Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke and George Kontos.

Peter Abraham also has a good analysis of the trade at the link. Nady is hitting well above his career norms. If he falls back to his career averages, he'll just be okay. If he keeps up the .383 OBA, he'll be great for New York.

Update, 7/26/2008, 4:25 PM EDT: The Yankees and Pirates changed the back end of the deal.

It appears that Jim Bowden asked for too much in trying to trade Jon Rauch and ended up with too little. A frustrated baby bear could not be reached for comment.

Beyond the Boxscore analyzes the deal that sends Randy Wolf to the Astros:

I suppose my only problem with Houston's part of this deal is why? The price isn't too great, but being double digits back doesn't, nor should it, inspire an all ready aging ballclub to add a soon to be leaving piece.

I does seem like a useless move, unless they think they can sign Wolf, or Wade is hoping to get a draft pick for the free-agent loss.

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquire Jon Rauch from the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio. Arizona's closer Brandon Lyon blew five saves this season, as did Rauch. I have not yet seen how Arizona is planning to use Jon, but for the moment I'll assume he'll be the setup man. That pretty much leaves Washington without a closer. Maybe they think the job isn't that difficult. :-) Rauch walked a lot of batters early in his career, but his control improved and the last two seasons he's been very good.

The Nationals think Bonifacio will develop into a lead-off hitter. Looking at his minor league stats, I really don't see it. Overall, it doesn't seem like a very good trade for Washington.

The Nationals also extend Cristian Guzman's contract two years.

Ray Durham found himself in a division race Sunday. He stayed with the Giants during the game even though he knew he was traded because he didn't want to suit up against his former team:

An emotional Durham could only stand to be in the Giants' dugout for a few innings during the series finale against Milwaukee, but was prepared to make the switch right afterward and head to St. Louis with the Brewers. The 36-year-old second baseman, in his sixth season with San Francisco and the final year of a two-year contract, had to approve the deal.

"He's a veteran guy that can come in here and help our club," Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin said. "We're trying to add as many good players as we can. We're trying to win this thing."

I like that quote from Melvin. That attitude was evident in the Sabathia trade, as they didn't insist on signing CC. After an off year in 2007, Durham came back strong in 2008, posting a .385 OBA. Rickie Weeks is at .326, based mostly on a very low batting average. Durham should improve the club.

The Giants get Steve Hammond, who has excellent strikeout and walk numbers in the minors. At 26 he's mature, and his path to the majors should be short. They also receive Darren Ford, a non-slugging outfielder.

Bottom line, I like that Milwaukee is pulling out all the stops to win this thing. They may end up a poor team for a few years afterward, but it's been a very long time since the city saw a championship baseball team.

A.J. Burnett wants to stay with the Blue Jays this season:

"It seems like there's only bad things get written. ... I'm always saying that I'm a Blue Jay and my loyalty is to this team and you still see some people writing stuff like my heart's not in it," Burnett said.

"I think I had a quote in the paper last weekend about I still had a Blue Jay on my chest and on my hat. Then a writer wrote, `Yeah, but not in his heart.' And when you got a guy pitching on three days' rest, you got a guy that came in the day after his bullpen to pitch an extra-inning game, take the ball and throw, I don't want people to question that (heart). You know I'm here.

"Just because my name's out there and all this stuff, and I made one mistake talking to a Chicago writer ... I enjoy being a Blue Jay and that's where I'm at. That's where I plan on being."

Burnett mentions in the article how is stats are weird:

I think I've pitched better than my numbers indicate, but I've taken us out of games, too.

Indeed. His FIP is 3.61, 1.35 runs below his ERA. Similar numbers in the second half could lead to a much better record, but it also should make him someone highly sought after in a trade.

Paul DePodesta discusses the Tony Clark trade on his blog. He likes the pitcher the Padres received in return:

While primarily a starter in his amateur days at Central Connecticut, the D'Backs have used Evan as a reliever. Standing 6'3" and featuring a 90-91 mph fastball with a big curveball, Evan has posted the following line so far in his pro career: 2.27 ERA, 91 innings, 70 hits, 24 walks, and 123 strikeouts.

Not bad.

The Philadelphia Phillies acquire Joe Blanton from the Athletics for three minor leaguers:

The Athletics get second baseman Adrian Cardenas, pitcher Josh Outman and outfielder Matthew Spencer, all minor leaguers.

I'm not a big Blanton fan. He doesn't strike out many batters. The A's lowered his ERA a bit by pitching him mostly at home this season. In 14 starts in Oakland, he posted a 4.63 ERA. In six starts on the road, he posted a 5.73 ERA. In less than half the innings on road, he allowed the same number of home runs. He's going to a park known as a haven for power hitters, so I don't think he'll do that well in Philadelphia.

The other problem with Blanton is that he blows up in the middle innings. One through three, he allows a .245 BA, but in innings four and five that jumps to .369. Given that he's likely to replace Eaton, however, he'll probably be an improvement.

Adrian Cardenas is a 20-year-old middle infielder with a great OBA. Outman is 23, good K and home run numbers, but does walk a bit too many batters. Spencer is 22 with a OPS over .700 in 484 minor league at bats. Two of the three could turn into useful players for Oakland.

Correction: I misread Spencer's stats. The .700 was his OPS, not slugging percentage. He doesn't look like a great hitter.

Jim Moore wants the Mariners to consider trading Ichiro:

Nothing against Ichiro, but isn't it time to blow this thing up and start over? Realizing they had no shot at an NBA championship, the Sonics dealt Ray Allen to Boston and began a process that will someday turn Oklahoma City into a perennial contender.

When you blow things up, you don't hang on to your best player, especially one who will be 35 in October. You don't let the player's popularity get in the way. If you're truly serious about winning, you forget about the marketing consequences, understanding that a successful team is more essential to long-term fan appeal.

I agree. The fans will hate it, but if Seattle is really serious about rebuilding, Ichiro is their most valuable commodity, assuming they want to make Felix Hernandez the center piece of the rebuilt team. His contract is very reasonable and he's signed through 2012, so you can actually trade him for value. I would guess Seattle could get two top prospects and two low prospects for the great combination of hits and defense.

The Marlins are asking the Tigers about the availability of Ivan Rodriguez, but so far the Tigers are saying no.

Kudos to the Detroit Free Press for linking to the original article!

It looks like the Phillies are the leading suitor for A.J. Burnett.

Are the Athletics giving up on the season?

Trading a pitcher of that caliber raised immediate questions about where the A's are headed the rest of the season, and whether the front office had concluded that any hope of contending had slipped away.

"It's more an indication that we've got a lot of guys injured and we're selling, not buying," said A's closer Huston Street, whose name also surfaces in trade rumors. "That said, since the beginning of the year, we've exceeded expectations, and for the guys remaining, we're going to work to continue to do that."

One of the first things Beane mentioned when discussing the deal was Oakland's recent spate of injuries (Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby and Keith Foulke went on the disabled list in the past week). He described the deal as not a step back, "but a step forward for the next four or five years. ... We've always viewed it as where we're headed, not necessarily where we are."

Harden's health is often a concern, and there was speculation in the wake of the trade that his dip in velocity the past two starts, when his fastball was down 4 to 5 mph, might have spurred the trade. If Harden were to blow out his arm in his next start or two, the thinking went, the A's would get nothing for him, and he has been on the DL six times in the past four years. An A's source said that did not factor into Oakland's thinking, but the source did confirm that Gaudin was included to provide insurance for the Cubs in the event that Harden were to land on the DL again.

Harden's trade value was as high, and Beane tends to pull the trigger in those situations. I don't think this trade takes the A's out of the race, but it doesn't make them a better contender, either.

A huge trade goes down between the Cubs and the Athletics. Rich Harden goes to Chicago with Chad Gaudin for four players:

The Cubs answered the Brewers acquisition of CC Sabathia, picking up Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from Oakland on Tuesday for Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Matt Murton and Josh Donaldson.

The right-handed Harden is 5-1 with an 2.34 earned-run average and 92 strikeouts over 13 games for Oakland, bolsters a Cubs rotation that just got saw the return of Carlos Zambrano.

Wow. My first reaction is that the A's didn't get enough, but I'll have to explore that further.

Update: The Athletics obviously recognize Murton's ability to get on base. While that's something that's needed on this season's Cubs team, the A's offense sure can use it. Same with Eric Patterson. He's a middle infielder who has a decent OBA in the minors. Gallagher is very young, and his minor league strikeouts, walks and home runs are great. Basically, he's someone who can take over the ace roll with a little more maturity. Donaldson is a catcher with minor league stats much like Patterson.

The question I'm trying to answer for myself; was this the A's giving up on the season or trying to improve for this season? Murton, Patterson and Gallagher can help this season. If Sean can come close to replacing Harden, without the threat of injury, I can see this deal improving the A's now. I'm always amazed when I look at a Beane deal at how it always looks better than I expected.

Obviously, Harden answers the Sabathia trade very well. He doesn't go as deep in games as CC, but the Cubs now send out three aces with Zambrano, Dempster and Harden. It's like having Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz from the mid 1990s. It looks like a great move for both clubs.

The Phillies failed to acquire CC Sabathia due to the lack of a power hitting prospect.

Now that Sabathia is gone, that leaves the Phillies looking at Plan B.

"There was Sabathia and then a big drop," Gillick said.

Maybe Gillick can make a deal with his old team in Toronto. They have pitching and can certainly use some offensive help.

You can see the news conference on MLB.com.

Update: Melvin is thanking everyone in the organization. He basically said that without building up the minor league system, they would not have been able to make the trade.

Update: C.C. T-Shirts will be ready.

Update: They're not saying who are the possibilities for the fourth player, yet to be named.

Update: WaitingForNextYear wonders how long the Indians will suck this time.

Update: Shapiro is speaking now in Cleveland.

Update: Mark says they want to bid for Sabathia if he becomes a free agent.

According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Brewers will hold a news conference at 12 PM EDT, 11 AM CDT. Here's the latest on the players involved from the Plain Dealer:

The Indians received Class AA outfielder Matt LaPorta, Class AAA pitcher Zach Jackson, Class AA pitcher Rob Bryson and a player to be named from the Brewers. Sources said the player to be named -- which could be Class AA outfielder Michael Brantley or Class A third baseman Taylor Green -- is the second key player to the deal from the Indians perspective.

I'm also wondering if the Indians will resign Sabathia once the season is over. The Orioles did that with Sidney Ponson a few years ago. That way, the Indians get some prospects and keep their pitcher.

Paul Hoynes says the Indians are still talking about getting Alcides Escobar, although other reports indicated the shortstop would not be included.

The key to the deal is outfielder Matt LaPorta. He could be playing left field for the Indians by next July. The sticking point has been the two other prospects the Indians would receive in the deal. The Indians preferred one of them to be shortstop Alcides Escobar, third baseman Taylor Green or outfielder Michael Brantley. Escobar and Brantley are with LaPorta at Class AA Huntsville.

Update: Tom Haudricourt at JS Online comes up with the other players in the trade:

A source familiar with the Brewers' trade for Cleveland lefty C.C. Sabathia just told me that the other players going to the Indians with Matt LaPorta are minor-league pitchers Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson and a fourth player, perhaps minor-league third baseman Taylor Green.

The fourth player currently is listed as "to be named later" but it is believed the Indians want to look more at Green, with the idea of moving him to second base.

Zach Jackson had two stints in the majors, and his minor league strikeouts are unimpressive. His walks and home runs allowed are fine, however. Bryson, however, is very young and has already struck out 143 batters in 109 innings.

Peter Gammons just reported during the ESPN game that the Brewers are trading straight for Sabathia, without the condition of signing him. It appears that Milwaukee is pulling out all the stops in an effort to win a championship this season.

According to the Brewers Blog at JS Online, the Brewers reached an agreement to trade for C.C. Sabathia.

All I know so far is that top prospect Matt LaPorta is in the deal. I was told two lower-level minor leaguers also are included. The Brewers refused to include another top prospect such as Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel.

Look for Sabathia to make his debut for the Brewers Tuesday night at Miller Park against Colorado.

Wow. The Indians didn't even wait to see if there was going to be much bidding over the next three weeks. I'll have more in a few minutes.

Update: I was just looking at LaPorta's minor league numbers. What's impressive is his home run rate, 32 in 411 minor league at bats. That's one every 12.8 at bats. He's also getting on base at a .395 clip. What I don't like is that he's pretty far along on the offensive side of the defensive spectrum, as he's played left, first and DH in the minors. We'll see what kind of prospects the other two players are.

The Brewers now match Zambrano and Dempster with Sheets and Sabathia. That should make for an exciting NL Central race.

Baseball Primer Newsblog links to this article on the Rays thought process on the upcoming trade deadline. They're looking for a player who fits on the club, not to make a big splash. The comment is great:

That sounds much more business-like than baseball-like. Somewhere, TLR is frowning.

There is something to be said for making a splash, however. That's the difference between an orderly retreat and a rout. Waterloo is an example of the latter. The French army became so demoralized at some point that they lost their cohesion and troops just ran away. A Tampa Bay team solidly in first place that picked up a star might cause their opponents to give up on first place in the AL East and concentrate on the wild card.

Evan Brunell makes the case for the Red Sox trading Kevin Youkilis for Mark Teixeira. Alex Remmington is all for it and thinks it will be a steal for the Braves.

This post at Bats suggests the Padres are giving up on 2008 and are willing to trade to pick up prospects. The post mentions both Maddux and Wolf as players to be traded, but what about Brian Giles? He's old, so his future value to the San Diego organization is small. Giles's OBA is .399, which means he's still a valuable player. The Oakland Athletics could certainly use a rightfielder who gets on base and can bat leadoff. Does Oakland make a move for the now?

Giles would also be useful to the Rays and Angels, although LAnaheim has plenty of older outfielders at this point.

Dennis Manoloff does a nice job of summing up the C.C. Sabathia situation with the Indians. Here he is on rebuilding versus reloading:

Assuming the answer is the Indians are not a playoff team, Shapiro must get the word out that Sabathia is available. Before fielding offers, though, Shapiro needs to determine whether his club is in rebuild or reload mode.

If it's the former, his search could tilt toward prospects. If it's the latter, his search likely will target major-leaguers or prospects ready to make an impact now.

Shapiro already has been through a rebuild, which he triggered in the summer of 2002 with the trade of Colon one month before the nonwaiver deadline. He has given no indication he wants to do it again. The fan base no doubt would be restless and annoyed if he did.

Despite the 2002 rebuild and a few poor seasons after, the Indians haven't been able to set up a pipeline of minor league talent, at least on the offensive side. Right now, that's making their success look short lived. I doubt many teams would trade a great second or third baseman for Sabathia. So getting offensive minded prospects may be Shapiro's best bet.

Of course, signing Sabathia would ensure a pretty good pitching staff for a few years, so maybe the offense wouldn't need to get that great.

Paul Hagen examines pitchers the Phillies might attempt to acquire at the trade deadline, and comes across this gem of a quote:

No matter how many games the Royals lose, it doesn't appear that righthander Gil Meche will be traded. "If we're going to make a run at this thing in 2010, how are we going to do it without Gil Meche?" a club official asked the Kansas City Star.

With Meche in 2000, the Mariners took the wild card. Without him in 2001, they won 116 games. Hmmm.

Via USS Mariner, Paul DePodesta talks about the Baek/Wells trade on his blog.

We believe Baek is a very good strike-thrower with all of his pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Slider, and Change), which keeps hitters off balance and makes him effective. Our scouts also believe that he pitched a little better than his ERA would indicate from last year. According to the FIP statistic, a defense-independant statistic developed by Tom Tango and utilized by The Hardball Times, Baek had been getting better in each of his past three ML seasons (2004-2007), which goes hand-in-hand with our scouting evaluations.

All you internet sabermetricians, your work is not going to waste!

Brian Kamenetzky looks back at a potential Angels deal for Miguel Cabrera and is glad the team didn't pull the trigger. While in the short term that may be true, the odds are Cabrera turns out to be very good over the life of the contract he signed with Detroit.

I've seen rumors about Griffey going to the Mariners for about a week, but this is the first time there seemed to be some meat to them:

The Seattle Mariners covet Ken Griffey Jr., want him as much as a loving mother wants to see her children on Mother's Day.

Club President Chuck Armstrong wants the Cincinnati Reds outfielder desperately, wants him to inject excitement into the Mariners and boost attendance, because Armstrong knows Griffey is a deity in the Northwest.

That's why Duane Shaffer, a special assistant to the executive vice president, was in Shea Stadium on Sunday, May 11 -- to check out Griffey.

The Mariners most likely would use Griffey as a designated hitter, something that Griffey has said in the past he wouldn't like to do. And he has said he wants to win a World Series ring before he says goodbye.

Griffey is 38 years old and currently sports a .333 OBA and a .384 slugging percentage. This is not your father's Ken Griffey Jr. Nor is it the kind of number a team wants from a designated hitters. The scary thing is that with Seattle DHs currently hitting .201/.266/.299, Griffey would be a big improvement.

So does the team trade a prospect for Ken, or do they realize that anything can happen in 100 at bats and give Vidro a chance to come out of his slump? Wouldn't it be better to sign Bonds, a player who only costs them money and is likely to hit better than Griffey?

I was just reading this postive story on Carlos Quentin and it reminded me of something I was thinking about yesterday. The Arizona Diamondbacks made some very good deals this winter, not only for their teams, but for the other teams as well. At this point, the White Sox have a very productive player, the Oakland Athletics have two productive players, and I'm guessing Valverde will be okay for the Astros as the season progresses. In other words, the Diamondbacks established themselves as a fair trader. That should make it easier as time goes on for Josh Byrnes to plug holes in his team. Combine that with this being a good, young team that's going to stay together for a few years, and the future of the Diamondbacks is looking very bright.

Josh Hamilton and Edinson Volquez swapped teams over the winter, and both were instrumental in helping their teams win today and this year. Hamilton picked up three hits today, including a home run. He scored twice and drove in two and sports a .385 OBA and a .581 slugging percentage in the middle of the Texas order. Combined with a complete game shutout by Vicente Padilla, Texas took home a 10-0 victory over the Twins.

In San Francisco, Edinson Volquez continued his dominance of the National League. He lasted seven innings against the Giants, allowing one runs while striking out ten. His walk rate remains high, but with only three today he's his K/BB is over two at 33/16.

Volquez lowers his ERA to 1.23, tied with Lincecum for second in the NL. With a 4-0 record, he's making an early bid to win both the Jackie Robinson and the Cy Young Awards.

Lone Star Ball links to an article indicating that Nolan Ryan isn't happy with the pitching trades made by Jon Daniels.

Tony Massarotti puts the Mets trade of Brian Bannister on a par with the trade of Scott Kazmir:

A little more than two years after trading Kazmir to Tampa Bay for the forgettable Victor Zambrano in what might qualify as The Worst Trade Ever, the Mets sent young right-hander Bannister to the Kansas City Royals in December 2006 for reliever Ambiorix Burgos. And tough Burgos went 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA in 17 appearances for the Mets last season, he needed major elbow surgery at the end of the season.

On top of that, Bannister is one of the smarter pitchers out there, who really works at learning his craft. It's not as bad as the Kazmir deal yet, but there's still plenty of time.

SportsHubLA looks at the Brad Penny deal a few years later. Maybe DePodesta knew what he was doing after all.

The St. Louis Cardinals take the early lead in the challenge trade of Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus:

Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in an offseason trade, Rolen was injured when he was hit on the hand by a ball during a fielding drill Sunday on a back field at Dunedin, Fla. A screw was inserted in his finger during surgery Monday.

"The doctor gave a 4-6-week window from the time of surgery," said Rolen, whose team beat the Houston Astros, 8-3, in an exhibition game yesterday.

The Cub Reporter provides a useful graphic for knowing where you are in the Brian Roberts trade talks.

There's an old saying about trading a player too early rather than too late:

From what I saw on the tube this weekend, Crede appears healthy, if just a little rusty. His swing mechanics look fine; the hands are high, there's no wasted motion. But it's not showing up in the results. He had a particularly terrible game against the Giants Saturday, which included an 0-3 on a number of hittable pitches and at least one 'Crede would have gotten it' moment. He couldn't have laid an egg against a more inopportune opponent.

The Giants are probably happy they waited on the deal.

The latest rumor sends Coco Crisp to the Cubs for Jason Marquis and a low level prospect.

Marquis would provide depth in the rotation and be more of "sure thing" than Bartolo Colon. Given how easily a misstep can occur and cause an injury to a starting pitcher, pitching depth of any kind is invaluable. However outside of Major League experience and health, Marquis, who is currently fighting for a spot in the Cubs rotation, doesn't have a whole lot going for him. Coming off a 2007 season where he was 12-9 with a 4.60 ERA in the National League, I wouldn't expect too much more out of Marquis than the Red Sox got last year out of Julian Tavarez.

Watching the Red Sox pitching moves this spring, signing Colon, looking at Freddy Garcia, and now a rumor about Marquis, I get the feeling they were woefully unprepared for adversity in the starting rotation. The depth that was a great strength for them last season seems to have vanished. In all likelihood, they'll be very good, but an injury to one of the projected top five starters and one of the rookies not working out and you suddenly have a team that's very dependent on the offense.

With the Dodgers suffering at third base, South Side Sox wonders if the market for Joe Crede is heating up:

Crede and Inge are very similar players in that they're both low-OBP, defensive minded, slugging third basemen. But Crede brings more power, a better contact rate, and a smaller salary -- Inge is owed $19.1M over the next three years. Why wouldn't the Dodgers be interested?

They wouldn't be locking themselves into a 2.5 years of an overpriced bench player when LaRoche gets healthy. And Crede might be movable at the trade deadline to a team like the Indians, who might be looking for 3B help by then.

If the White Sox can get the Dodgers and Giants into a bidding war over Crede, that could help Chicago now. Of course, those two teams might go for the more expensive but healthier Inge, which might bring Detroit some extra bullpen help.

Emma Span looks at why the Yankees and Red Sox fans were happy they didn't get Santana. She closes with a great paragraph:

Of course, these concerns are a luxury few teams can afford, and you won't hear many Mets fans complaining about overspending. Their team hasn't won a championship since 1986, and last year's nominal ace, Tom Glavine, cemented the team's epic September implosion by throwing one-third of an inning of seven-run ball on the last day of the season. The Mets needed Santana, and--thanks in large part to the Yankees' and Red Sox's abstention--they got him. As the fans at Shea know all too well, you need to have success before you can worry about how it's achieved.

The Hardball Times staff and guests hold a round table over the Erik Bedard trade. The most interesting thing to come out of the discussion is how much of the Mariners Pythagorean luck was caused by losing blowouts. If Bedard replaces the pitchers who allowed those blowouts to happen, maybe the Mariners do have a chance to be better in 2008.

Mark Gonzales suggests the White Sox might trade Crede to the Giants for Noah Lowry:

Giants general manager Brian Sabean, who desperately needs a middle-of-the-order hitter of Crede's caliber (with Bengie Molina as the Giants' current cleanup hitter), told reporters Friday his team currently has pitching depth.

I thought most of the Giants hitters were of Crede's caliber.

Baseball Digest Daily just emailed that the Erik Bedard deal is done. More later.

Erik Bedard is scheduled to start his physcial in Seattle today.

Erik Bedard still hasn't traveled to Seattle for his physical. Since it was reported that Jones and Sherrill took their physicals, it makes one wonder if something showed up in one of those.

My latest SportingNews.com column looks at why the most talented pitcher brought the least in trade value.

Luis Castillo had a hand in bringing Johan Santana to the Mets:

"When I got traded," Castillo said on a conference call yesterday from the Dominican Republic, "I remember Johan, in the locker room, we talked for 20 minutes. He told me he wanted to play for the Mets.

"So when I got over there I told (GM Omar) Minaya that Johan liked the Mets. I told him, 'I know he'll make a lot of money, but he's a great pitcher, and we need him here.' "

It makes you wonder, if the Twins had kept Castillo, would Johan have accepted the organization's contract offer?

Erik Bedard is still in Canada.

Here's the latest Orioles rumor:

Once completed the deal will likely be announced this afternoon or tomorrow morning. League Officials now expect the deal that would send Roberts to the Cubs to be finalized and completed by the weekend. They now expect that George Sherrill to be part of the deal. The O's have no use for a 31 year old reliever in there pen and want to get younger. Sherrill will ensure that the O's will get at least two pitchers in the deal from the Cubs.

Remember to take everything you hear about this deal with a huge grain of salt. Thanks to David Gerstman for the heads up.

More evidence the deal between Baltimore and Seattle is going to happen:

The long-awaited blockbuster trade that would send Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for five players is finally nearing completion. According to a league source, Adam Jones, the young outfielder who is the centerpiece of the Mariners' offer, is in Baltimore today and the deal is now pending results of physicals.

If all goes well with Jones' physical, the trade could be announced as early as this afternoon. It is expected that the Orioles will send Bedard, the organization's first legitimate ace since Mike Mussina, to Seattle for Jones, a 22-year-old who is one of baseball's best prospects, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

Stay tuned.

Jim Souhan muses on the Twins and George Steinbrenner:

For decades, the Twins complained privately about George Steinbrenner. The bombastic Yankees owner inflated salaries, campaigned against low-revenue teams and often embarrassed himself and the game.

Today, the Twins might miss King George more than they miss Johan Santana.

Jim's thesis is that George Steinbrenner would have made the Santana deal, and the Twins would wind up with a better package of players.

Didn't we do this story last week?

Mariners outfielder Adam Jones traveled to Baltimore on Sunday, a source said, presumably to undergo a physical examination that originally was scheduled for Jan. 29.

This keeps getting more bizarre:

There are also some other crazy rumors out there today regarding a possible 6-for-2 deal that may or may not include Brian Roberts, and there is also something out there about Erik Bedard currently in Seattle.

The Roberts thing has been going around for a while but has recently been gaining steam. It wouldn't surprise me, because the Mariners could stand to upgrade at second base. If Roberts was added to the deal we would probably see one of the above pitchers dropped from the proposal, and possible Carlos Triunfel and Jose Lopez or Yung Chi Chen being added.

A week ago Jones told a reporter he was going to Baltimore for a physical, and we still have almost no clue as to what's really going on. I wonder what the breaking point is for Seattle? At some point, you might expect them to just throw in the towel and stop dealing with Baltimore.

Joe Christensen publishes the details of the Santana deal. The 2014 option vests:

It's a vesting option that can be triggered with innings pitched or a high finish in the Cy Young voting. Santana also received a full no-trade clause. The average annual value of Santana's six-year deal is actually $22 million. Only Alex Rodriguez (at $27.5 million) will make more.

The Mets also tore up the old contract, so Santana receives $19 million in 2008. Johan got a very good deal here. Santana and his agent played this whole deal perfectly. They used the no-trade cause to force the Twins to make a deal, then used the short negotiation window to force the Mets to pay free agent money without free agency. On top of great money and seven years, they also get a full no-trade! Not even a short list of teams! I can't imagine what he'd get if he actually became a free agent.

Johan Santana passed his physical with flying colors.

Jayson Stark writes an excellent column today on how the Santana trade changes baseball:

So that contract extension Johan Santana negotiated with the Mets on Friday -- all $137.5 million of it -- made a lot of people happy, all right. He's a franchise-changing guy. He's a pennant-race-changing guy. And now he's also a salary-structure-changing guy.

Which means he already has left an indelible imprint on the baseball universe, before he has even thrown his first pitch as a Met.

He also makes a very important point about the trade, as well as letting Torii Hunter go. These were choices by the Twins. The offer Minnesota made to Johan Santana shows they could have kept him. They could have gone more money/more years. It was their business plan, not their revenue that the prevented them from doing that.

And remember, offer to Santana would have made him the highest paid pitcher in terms of yearly salary. That wasn't enough for Johan. He wanted a bigger total contract that Barry Zito. So I'd argue it was Zito's contract that actually changed the landscape. The Giants made a good but not great pitcher the highest paid in the game for a very long time period. If the Giants sign Zito for five years, $18 million, then the Twins might actually keep Santana with a five-year, $20 million per year contract. But if the Twins have to beat the total dollar amount, that makes it much tougher.

The Mets and Santana had their deadline extended two hours.

Update: The deal is done:

...Update...6:44 pm...

The Mets have issued a statement saying negotiations are complete and Santana is scheduled to take a physical.

...from what i can gather, the physical will be tomorrow...

...Update...6:46 pm...

...i have reason to believe the deal is for a guaranteed six years, and $137.5 million...as expected, he'll stay under contract on his current deal, but paid roughly $7 million on top of that...i can't confirm that with people connected to the team, though...

Update: The New York Daily News has more.

The deal bumps this season's salary to approximately $20 million and adds six guaranteed years at $22-23 million.

I believe this is only the third player to receive $20 million a year for a long term contract, the others being A-Rod (twice) and Manny Ramirez.

Via MetsBlog.com, Ken Davidoff predicts the negotiations:

Within the baseball industry, there is near unanimity on these two predictions when it comes to the Mets and Johan Santana:

1. They will come to an agreement on Santana's contract extension by Friday afternoon's 5 o'clock deadline.

2. They won't complete that agreement until 4:59.

This is one of those situations where there's no reason to reach an agreement early. Both sides know they want to get the deal done, it's just waiting and seeing which side is most willing to go that extra million or ten at the last minute. Santana was willing to play the season out with Minnesota, then test free agency. As long as he maintains that attitude, he should come out ahead.

Erik Bedard's agent denies that the Orioles are working on a long term contract for the pitcher.

We know nothing, as Roch Kubatko tells us:

Meanwhile, just to recap: Half the nation believes the Orioles and Mariners are within minutes of completing a trade. The other half believes the trade is being held up while team president Andy MacPhail attempts to negotiate a long-term deal with Bedard.

The Mets have until 5 PM EDT on Friday to finish a deal with Johan Santana.

Oriole Central brings us the lastest news.

Jon Weisman looks at why the Dodgers didn't compete for Johan Santana.

Joe Christensen rounds up reactions of Twins players to the Santana trade. They're mostly positive, in the sense that they're glad the distraction is gone.

Bob Klapisch details the inner workings of the Santana deal:

This was late Monday night, about 12 hours before the Mets would pounce upon their most dramatic trade in recent history. Twins' general manager Bill Smith, in a panic to move Johan Santana, called the Yankees and admitted surrender: Phil Hughes was no longer a prerequisite, he said. Instead, the Twins asked for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a top prospect. Would the Yankees still be interested, Smith wondered?

The Yankees considered the idea, but only briefly and not seriously. Their passion for Santana started waning as far back as December, when Andy Pettitte announced he was returning to the Bronx. The Yankees' internal straw vote was unanimous: The Twins had waited too long. On Tuesday Yankees' GM Brian Cashman told Smith he was passing on the deal, prompting the Twins to call the Red Sox. Equally devastating news awaited. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester were unavailable.

The Red Sox, in lock step with the Yankees, had essentially backed out, too.

The Mets were smart enough to know they were in the driver's seat, and took full advantage of that position.

How many wins does Johan Santana add to the Mets in 2008? It depends on who Johan is replacing. If you assume he's pushing likely fifth starter Mike Pelfrey out of the rotation, then it's a huge boost. Baseball Prospects (subscription required) rated Pelfrey at 0.5 wins above replacement in 2007. Maybe over a full season and some improvement, Pelfrey might reach 2.0 in 2008. Santana's WARP in 2007 came in at 9.1. So compared to the fifth starter, Santana is adding seven to nine wins.

But Pelfrey was in the rotation due to the loss of Tom Glavine. Tom posted a WARP of 4.1 in 2007. In that case, Santana is adding five wins over 2007. That's fantastic. The Mets needed those five wins last season. It's also difficult to find players who can make a five win impact. Landing a player like that without losing a major league starter or their number one prospect makes this a great deal for New York.

Update: PECOTAs are not out yet, but Nate Silver unveils Santana's in this BP post. They project Santana's WARP to be 7.5 in 2008, meaning he's adding 3 1/2 wins over Glavine. That would still have put the Mets into the playoffs last year.

Aaron Gleeman looks at the details of the Santana trade.

In a perfect world Santana would christen the new ballpark with an Opening Day start in 2010 and wear a Twins cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, but for whatever reason his remaining in Minnesota never seemed to be a legitimate option once the trade rumors began swirling. Swapping him for packages led by Hughes or Ellsbury would have put the Twins in a better position for both short- and long-term success, so if either of those deals were passed on then Smith made a major mistake.

With that said, getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn't shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one's idea of a great haul for Santana, but it's not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn't have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he's still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins' favor. It just could have been better.

I still don't see why the Twins didn't offer Santana $140 million for seven years. Baseball revenues are growing. The Twins are moving into a new stadium, and that's likely to increase revenue as well (especially if both Santana and Liriano are at the top of the rotation). An argument could be made that Santana is worth $140 million over five years, so the Twins could look at the seven year deal as one in which money is deferred. The team did nothing to endear themselves to the Minnesota fans with this deal.

MetsGrrl writes BatGirl and gets her thoughts on the Johan Santana trade.

Update: This is just cold.

Baseball Digest Daily alerts us that the Mets and Twins agreed to a deal for Johan Santana:

The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension.

The Mets paid a high price in prospects to land Santana, agreeing to send the Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.

There's still time for the deal to go south, but it looks like the Yankees and Red Sox successfully kept the other from acquiring the big ace.

Shea should be a great park for Johan. Imagine the best parts of Jerry Koosman and Sid Fernandez combined.

Here we go again. According to The MLB Source, the Mets pulled Carlos Gomez out of the Caribbean Series. Carlos is rumored to be involved in the Johan Santana deal. However, reading the translation of the article, it seems the Mets didn't give permission, rather than actually pulling Gomez out of the series. I'm not getting too excited over this one.

The Bedard-Jones deal is on hold:

A source familiar with the talks said a potential deal is being held up on the Orioles' end and unspecified complex issues still need to be resolved for the trade to go through. One of those might be Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail getting the approval of club owner Peter Angelos.

Mariners center fielder Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the Seattle offer for Bedard, was originally expected to be in Baltimore later Monday in preparation for a physical Tuesday, according to a club source. However, those plans have been scuttled, an indication that the deal has either hit a snag or is currently on hold.

The Orioles currently don't have a physical scheduled for Jones, the source said.

"We are where we were last night," said MacPhail on Monday. "We have no agreement."

MacPhail said that he didn't expect any developments for a couple of days. Asked if an agreement could be pending, MacPhail said, "I don't know."

Interesting. Obviously, Adam Jones was told something on Sunday that made him think a deal was happening. Sounds like someone talked too soon.

According to Jayson Stark, Peter Angelos hasn't had a chance to approve the Bedard trade:

The same source also indicated that Angelos wasn't informed of the particulars of this latest proposal until late Sunday and that he won't be available Monday to confer with the Orioles' baseball officials because of a personal matter.

Given Angelos' long history of vetoing trades, one baseball man who has dealt extensively with Angelos predicted that "this could get more interesting as it goes along" if Angelos has yet to approve this deal.

It's a good thing Adam Jones has a big mouth, otherwise we wouldn't be having so much fun today!

Roch Kubatko tries to analyze what is happening in Baltimore with Adam Jones:

At this point in the morning, there isn't much to add, but I feel the need to point out, after reading another Seattle Times blog entry, that nobody on this end is disputing that Jones told a reporter in Venezuela that the Mariners instructed him to fly to Baltimore. We don't need a translator to understand his quotes.

The confusion comes when Orioles president Andy MacPhail and a team source insist that no agreement has been reached. That denial isn't the same as saying a deal isn't finalized, which could simply mean no announcement comes until certain players pass their physicals. An agreement is a different animal.

You don't schedule a physical without an agreement. If the two sides are still working out some details, most important being which final player is included in the package, you don't line up a physical for Adam Jones. And you certainly don't fly him to Baltimore and arrange transportation to Camden Yards without telling Erik Bedard's agent, Mark Pieper.

Roch points out that it is very tough to get information out of the Orioles front office right now, but also that MacPhail is trustworthy. The situation remains murky at best.

Update: Here's Geoff Baker's latest take on the deal.

Dectect-o-Vision really likes that the Mariners are about to acquire Erik Bedard.

The goal in baseball isn't to stockpile resources high enough to fill the acorn silo, kiddies. It's to configure those resources so as to win baseball games.

Joe Christensen notes the Twins are good at identifying the top prospects in other organization, but his inclusion of Cristian Guzman sort of ruins the story.

Noting that nothing is official yet, U.S.S. Mariner reacts to the Erik Bedard trade:

It is confusing and distressing to witness a team that claims to be interested in fielding a competitive team over the long term trade a player of Jones' talent and value, along what we reasonably expect to be highly valuable pieces, to the Orioles for a pitcher determined to test free agency at the end of his contract.

I don't know about that last bit. The other day there was an article in which Erik was complaining that the Orioles and the lack of a long term contract. MacPhail noted:

"We wanted to talk about a multiyear deal and they suggested that they just do a one-year deal," MacPhail said. "That's the truth."

If the Mariners show Bedard the money, I be he'll be happy to sign a long term deal.

Hat tip, 6-4-2.

Adam Jones is not in the lineup tonight for his winter league game. This time, it really appears to be the sign that Jones is headed to Baltimore:

Jones did not mince words when he spoke to a reporter from Diario Panorama in Venezuela today. We have a relationship with the reporter and paper and they have graciously supplied us with quotes from the interview with Jones.

"I received a call from Seattle saying that is no more playing for me and I can't do anything about that,'' Jones said. "I leave tomorrow morning...It sucks. I want to play. This is Game 4 of the finals and I really want to be there for my team, but it's something that all the guys understand. I really want to play, but I can't."

On the actual deal itself: "(Bill Bavasi) called me yesterday and told me the news. I've got to go to Baltimore tomorrow morning and handle things there. I'm the centerpiece of the deal on the Mariners side. It's an honor to get traded for such a highly talented pitcher as Bedard is. He's one of the best. Last year he finished up as arguably one of the top candidates for the Cy Young. He's that good, so for me it's an honor. You know, I like Seattle, but if I am in Baltimore, as I think now I am, I'm going to embrace it and have the best time of my life in Major League Baseball."

Thanks to the readers who pointed out these two stories. Bedard gives the Mariners a top notch front of the rotation starter, and I suspect Bedard-Hernandez-Washburn to make the Mariners one of the top rotations in the AL this season. Of course, this leaves a hole in the outfield. However, it's easier to fill that hole than find a number one starter.

Update: MacPhail denies the report:

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said tonight that the club has not agreed to trade ace pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for a package headed by young center fielder Adam Jones, despite reports that a deal is done.

"We do not have an agreement with the Mariners," MacPhail said.

Either Jones is playing with a reporter, or MacPhail is sticking to a strict line that they don't have a deal until the physical is passed.

The Cubs also deny that a nine-player deal was nixed by Peter Angelos.

Oriole Central looks at the possibility that Peter Angelos killed a deal that would have sent both Roberts and Bedard to the Cubs for seven players. Given Angelos's past history, I wouldn't be surprised it this were true. The Orioles, however, deny the story.

I've seen almost all the Yankees blogs linking to this economic analysis of a possible Santana trade by Vince Gennaro. The Yankees do better keeping Hughes, and Santana makes the most economic sense for the Mets.

Metsblog.com has a very good take on why a trade for Johan Santana hasn't happened yet:

...and this, to me, is why it's taking so long for a deal to be made...they have several unique offers that would each shape their team differently for the next 5-10 years...the near future of the Twins organization is essentially riding on this trade and the front office can't afford to screw it up...

My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the Rolen/Glaus trade.

That didn't last long.

Both the Rolen/Glaus deal and the Kotsay to the Braves deal are done.

The Athletics get Joey Devine, a young relief pitcher who blows away batters with strikeouts but also walks a ton. In his 19 2/3 innings of major league work, however, he's walked more than he's struck out. On the positive side, his walks allowed showed great improvement in 2007 at the minor league level. If he can strike out over nine per nine in the majors, he should be an effective relief pitcher.

The Yankees appear to be out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes. That puts less pressure on Boston to meet the Twins demands. So, does Minnesota take less than they want in a deal, or do they continue to wait to see if anyone else gets interested, or if the Mets come up with a better offer?

It looks like the Brian Roberts trade to the Cubs is dead.

Ken Rosenthal reports the Blue Jays and Cardinals are close to trading Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen.

The Cardinals and Blue Jays are closing in on an exchange of their third basemen, major-league sources say, but both former All-Stars must pass physicals before a deal is completed.

Those physicals are no small issue since Rolen is coming off surgery on his right shoulder and Glaus surgery on his left foot.

I don't know why the Blue Jays would make this deal. Glaus has been more productive over the last three seasons than Rolen, and his seasonal age is two years younger. I understand Glaus wants to play on real grass, but this looks like a step back for the Blue Jays.

Hat Tip, Baeball Think Factory.

The Yankees are moving away from making a deal for Johan Santana:

But while stressing there is "absolutely nothing new" in terms of recent trade discussions with the Twins, Hank is beginning to sound convinced - if not nearly ready - to walk away from any potential blockbuster deal for Johan Santana.

"We went into this with me making the final baseball decisions and Hal more addressing the financial aspects of the company, but we both do everything," Steinbrenner said yesterday in a phone interview. "We're equal partners, but at this point, to tell you the truth, I'm leaning away from it anyway, so it doesn't matter. Same thing with Brian, he's another integral part of it, obviously, being the general manager, and one day he's leaning to do it and the next day he's not sure.

"But what it comes down to right now is giving up a lot (in a trade) and then having to do the big contract, as well. If (Santana) was just a free agent, we could just go ahead and do it. There's a big difference this way. We have to sign him as if he's a free agent, plus you have to give up major talent. That's a tall order."

So if Johan can last until free agency, the Yankees are more than willing to pay him. Of course, the Mets might trade for him first.

Detect-O-Vision ponders trading a great prospect for a great pitcher.

Someone posted a comment that Brian Roberts was traded to the Cubs. Roch Kubatko checked and word from Andy MacPhail is reports are inaccurate.

Aaron Gleeman makes a good case for the Twins preferring a Jacoby Ellsbury package to a Philip Hughes package.

There's a report the Twins are modifying their demands to part with Johan Santana. If this is true, we could see the pitcher move quickly.

Hat tip, Metsblog.com.

Sox Machine discusses how you can tell Kenny Williams is about to make a trade.

Evan Grant believes the Athletics rebuilding will help the Rangers compete in 2009 by taking out one potential opponent.

I've had a hard time tracking down stats on Fautino de los Santos. Some people spell his first name Faustino, but MiLB has him as Fautino. As you can see, he's a strikeout artist, setting down 153 batters in 122 1/3 innings via the K in 2007. Just the kind of pitcher the A's like.

Ray Ratto correctly points out that Oakland is now a baseball desert:

Understanding the Swisher trade from the A's view is easy - it's the same justification that they made when they shipped Haren to Arizona for twice as many bodies. But the starker truth is that for the short term, the A's are very likely the worst team in the American League, and without question the least interesting for the casual fan.

Swisher may have been a flawed player, a sort of supercharged Eric Byrnes with a more disciplined strike zone if you must, but he did have his clientele, just as Haren had his. Now what is left is the oft-injured Eric Chavez, Huston Streeet and Bobby Crosby, the efficient but largely spectral Mark Ellis, and a new, younger Sacramento farm team. As a ticket buyer, you can be forgiven if that doesn't heat your home this winter.

The Athletics are doing what the Indians did at the start of the decade and what the Marlins appeared to be doing two years ago, dumping players for prospects to rebuild. It took the Indians a while to get there. The Marlins just keep going backward. Up until now, Beane tried to keep fannies in the seats with a competitive team. It will be interesting to see how quickly he can turn these prospects into a winning MLB team.

Nick gives the White Sox a formidable outfield and solves their centerfield problem much more cheaply than if they had hired one of the three free agents. Swisher makes just over $5 million a year. That's another good reason to sign youngsters to long term contracts; it makes them very easy to trade.

Update: At Athletics Nation, Blez interviews John Sickels:

Blez: If you put the Swisher deal together with the Haren deal, how much have the A's improved their farm system?

Sickels: Well, look at the Top 20 list I posted a few days ago at MinorLeagueBall.com. These two trades, plus the good early returns on the 2007 draft class, completely rebuild the farm system. It has been a huge infusion of talent in a short period of time. 2008 might be a rough year, but the future looks really good. Masterful rebuilding by Beane.

Sox Machine doesn't like the deal, and neither does South Side Sox. Will Chicago flip Swisher for pitching?

Baseball Digest Daily reports that the Oakland Athletics traded Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. The A's get three prospects in return, including White Sox number one prospect going into 2007, Ryan Sweeney. Given his rather poor minor league numbers, that doesn't say much for the White Sox prospects. Pitcher Gio Gonzalez, however, has great K and BB numbers. I'm off to the dentist, more when I get back.

Matt Cerrone comes up with a novel way for the Mets to pay for Johan Santana:

in the report, egan writes that the Mets will get $800 million from Citigroup...however, this is incorrect...according to previous reports, the stadium will cost $800 million to build, while the Mets could get up to $400 million over 20 years from Citigroup...

...hmm, $400 million divided by 20 years is $20 million...hey, so, assuming Citigroup is still in business next season, how about they kick in a few more million, the Mets trade for Johan Santana and they write Citigroup on his back instead of his last name...

...that's a joke, by the way...

It's crazy, but it just might work! :-)

Peter Abraham gives his reasons why the Yankees should pass on Johan Santana:

Spend the money on draft picks, Dominican shortstops and Taiwanese pitchers. Go find kids in Korea, Australia, Venezuela and everywhere else. Hire more scouts and go see every junior college prospect in Texas. Go find the next Santana, don't trade for the old one.

The Yankees do have time on their side. The Twins, of course, run the risk that Hughes turns out to be so good next season that there's no reason for the Yankees to trade him. They also run the risk that Santana and a healthy Liriano have Minnesota in the playoff race come late July. In that case, it would be very difficult to trade away Johan.

David Ortiz comments on the possibility of the Red Sox getting Johan Santana:

"No," Ortiz said when asked if he thought his good friend, Santana, would be traded to the Red Sox. "I was (following it) for a minute, but I guess they stopped. They don't want him to go. (Minnesota) already gave Boston too many good things already. Me, and now Santana? No way."

The Texas Rangers acquired Josh Hamilton from the Reds for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera. I find it strange that Texas would trade a top pitching prospect, given their lack of depth on the mound. Volquez, however, while a great minor league pitcher has been just terrible in his major league outings. At the minor league level, he keeps the ball in the park, doesn't walk too many batters and strikes out a ton. But in the majors, all those numbers go in the wrong direction. Maybe he just needs some maturity, but I also could understand why Texas might want to let him go. Herrera, however, also is putting up great numbers in the minor leagues.

It could be the Rangers feel they just don't have a good way of improving the pitching this year, so they might as well make the offense as potent as possible and hope they get lucky.

Brew Crew Ball notes the Brewers made bad decisions on the Estrada-Mota-Wise deal.

Detect-o-Vision discusses the Mariners-Orioles negotiations for Erik Bedard. The Mariners are negotiating backwards:

We remind negotiators of this, and they go, "Well, no duh." They are aware of the idea, but then you sit and watch them go ahead and direct 80% of their discussion time towards trying to subtract from their side of the deal. It's human nature.

It is the guy who spends 90% of his time on the opposite paradigm -- "what does the deal look like if you get everything you want" -- who gets deals closed.

Not that any of the M's suits listen to advice on this kind of stuff ... but for D-O-V readers following the script? You may want to pay more attention to what Baltimore would be willing to kick in (a realistic hope), than to whether they're willing to cave in on Wlad (probably not a realistic hope).

The trades for Miguel Cabrera and Dan Haren are great examples of this.

Lookout Landing weighs the pros and cons of trading for Erik Bedard.

Look, in no way do I want to just write off both 2008 and 2009 in anticipation of making a run three years from now. This isn't a bad team, and conceding defeat this early on the heels of the first interesting summer in ages isn't going to make people happy. With that said, there are ways to make this team better, ways to make it more competitive, that don't involve sacrificing so much of our promising future. Trade for one of the Devil Rays. Pay someone to take Sexson and bring in a left fielder. Sign Colon, Clement, or some other reclamation project and hope they stay healthy long enough for Morrow to make some major strides in AAA. And so on and so forth. None of these things is nearly as sexy as bringing in a clear #1, but as a whole they're just about as effective, and none of them involves giving away many things we may need down the road. That's the key. What Bill Bavasi should be doing right now is figuring out a way to make this team better while simultaneously protecting much of the talent that could help us later on, when our chances will be better.

Bedard is not the final piece of the puzzle, although I wonder if LL would feel differently if the Mariners managed to sign him long term?

The Baseball Zealot thinks Arizona is doing a better job getting talent for White Sox prospects than Chicago.

Correction: Included link.

Joe Christensen notes the Yankees are still interested in Johan Santana if they can move Hideki Matsui. From Joe:

Another development to follow is the Hiroki Kuroda derby. The Dodgers and Mariners are both trying to sign the Japanese pitcher, and the team that misses out might make a last-ditch effort for Santana. Once Kuroda lands, the Twins should have a crystal clear picture of Santana's trade market, and I'm guessing they will take their best offer, with the whole thing settled by Christmas.

It seems the Twins are being very patient, waiting for teams to be out of options with Santana the only great pitcher left.

The San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals have a deal in place to send Jim Edmonds San Diego way.

The deal was waiting approval from the commissioner's office because it will involve around $1 million going from the Cardinals to the Padres, according to a source with knowledge of the deal, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal hasn't been finalized.

The Cardinals will get minor league third baseman David Freese.

Edmonds has seen his OBA and slugging percentage each fall three years in a row. He's coming off a very poor season at the plate, but says he's not healthy again.

Freese posted great OBAs in his two years at A ball. He'll be seasonal age 25 in 2008, however, and I wonder why he hasn't moved up through the Padres system. Players drafted out of college should be close to major league ready, so I wonder why he wasn't moved through the Padres system sooner. He's an obvious replacement for Rolen if and when the Cardinals part with Scott.

The Arizona Diamondbacks executed three trades, sending prospects to the Oakland Athletics for Dan Haren, but replenishing the system from elsewhere. Josh Byrnes explains:

So aside from getting Haren, who had the third-best ERA in the American League last season (3.07), the Diamondbacks acquired a proven and reliable reliever in Qualls, whom they have under control for three seasons; partially replenished their upper-level pitching depth with Buckner and Gutierrez; and rounded out their roster with Burke, who has played all three outfield positions as well as second base and shortstop in parts of four seasons in the majors.

"They were very much connected," Byrnes said of the deals. "I think again one of the hesitations of the Oakland deal was giving up depth, which is invaluable. The Houston deal brought back some of that depth."

And they did it without having to give up any of their young talent in the majors - Chris Young, Justin Upton or Stephen Drew - or top pitching prospect Max Scherzer.

It will be three years before Haren is a free agent, giving the DBacks a Webb-Haren 1-2 punch for a few years. The trades don't address the Diamondbacks offense, however. While improving the pitching staff certainly will help a negative run differential, there's a lot more room to improve the offense. Maybe Arizona feels that letting their young hitter mature will be enough to score more runs.

Athletics Nation sees this as a deal for 2009, and is ready to write off the 2008 season. Possibly, the Athletics are looking toward going into a new stadium at the top of their game.

Ed Wade explains the Valerde trade from his point of view:

"This something we worked on for a long time, and we felt that with the trade of Brad Lidge it opened up an opportunity for Chad Qualls, and we thought Chad was able to handle it," Wade said.

"But at the same time when we pursued the Valverde trade and thought we would be able to bring it to closure, it made all the sense in the world for us to do it because we believe it takes us one step closer to being a champion."

In my mind, you need a team capable of getting to the closer before you can start talking about a World Series champion. But the Astros didn't pay too high a price to land the closer they wanted, and given the level of play in the NL Central, they may very well be competing for a playoff spot this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes set the trade wire on fire tonight. He starts by acquiring Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics in a seven player deal. All five players sent to the Athletics are prospects. Brett Anderson will be 20 in 2008 and had an outstanding season at A ball. Dana Eveland hasn't translated his low minor league walk numbers to the majors yet. Greg Smith also posts good walk and strikeout numbers in the minors. Aaron Cunningham is developing power as he rises through the minors. Carlos Gonzalez is the least impressive one of the group, but he's only 21 and already at AAA. Basically, the Athletics restocked their system with five good players.

Then Byrnes changes Valverde into Chad Qualls, Chris Burke and Juan Gutierrez. The DBacks now have two aces in Webb and Haren, and a possible third if Randy Johnson comes back. Not a bad day for the Arizona GM.

Update: I missed that Chris Carter also went to Oakland, so it was an eight-player deal.

Roch Kubatko wonders why Adam Everett wasn't included in the Miguel Tejada trade.

My question, which might be answered later in the day, once the trade is announced: What happened to Adam Everett?

If you told me earlier that the Orioles would get five players from the Astros, I would have bet the ranch that Everett was one of them - though perhaps his inclusion would have reduced the total to four. But you get my point. It seemed certain that he'd be in there somewhere.

So who plays short now for the Orioles?

The Padres are interested in acquiring Jason Bay and Xavier Nady.

The Padres still have some financial flexibility, after trying and failing to sign Andruw Jones and Kosuke Fukodome, and they have some prospects to deal, such as infielder Chase Headley, a second-round pick from the 2005 draft. San Diego may also consider dealing catcher Michael Barrett, who surprised the Padres last week by accepting their offer of arbitration -- an offer that the Padres made with the hope of recouping a draft pick.

San Diego may also have interest in right-hander Matt Morris, a 33-year-old right-hander acquired by the Pirates in the last minutes before the July 31 trade deadline. Morris, who went 10-11 with a 4.89 ERA last summer for the Giants and Pirates and is 121-88 in his career, has one year remaining on his current contract, for $9.5 million, and there is an option year for 2009, with a $1 million buyout.

It will probably do Bay a world of good to get out of Pittsburgh.

The Baltimore Orioles send Miguel Tejada to the Astros for five players:

In return for the four-time All-Star, the Orioles will get outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Dennis Sarfate, and third baseman Michael Costanzo.

I'll assume here that the Astros will play Tejada at third base, since they have a defensive wizard at shortstop:

MacPhail met for nearly an hour with Tejada on the final weekend of the 2007 season. During the meeting that both sides described as productive, Tejada told him that his preference was to remain at shortstop, but that wasn't his main goal.

"I want to win," Tejada said of his message to MacPhail. "It's not about changing positions. My point isn't about changing positions. My point is winning. I don't want to play every day just for money. I'm not that kind of person. I play for pride. I don't care about changing positions if we're going to be a winner, and I want to be on a team that is going to compete to win."

This gives the Astros an even stronger middle of the order. Pence, Berkman, Lee and Tejada make up a decently potent lineup. However, given the Astros record last season, I'm not sure Tejada is really going to a winner.

What did the Orioles get? Luke Scott is good, but he was an old rookie. He'll be 30 in 2008. Albers walks a lot of batters and gives up lost of home runs, but he's only 23. Sarfate kicked around the minors a long time, but has shown better control in the majors. It's a pretty small sample size, however. Troy Patton looks like the best pitching prospect. Mike Costanzo had a power surge last season, but he'll be 24 in 2008 and hasn't played above AA. It seems to me the Astros gave up quantity, but not a lot of quality to get Tejada. I think that says something about how far Miguel's stock fell in the last couple of seasons.