Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 29, 2002
Killebrew:
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Just in case you think all ballplayers are jerks, check out this story about Harmon Killebrew.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Baseball
I-Rod:
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Phil Rogers of ESPN.com writes about how Pudge Rodriguez has become an afterthought in the thinking of Texas management:


Ivan Rodriguez's impending free agency evoked a widespread passion back in 1997. But now that Rodriguez has finally reached the marketplace, after three consecutive last-place seasons, the deification of Alex Rodriguez and the rise of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks and NHL's Dallas Stars, he twists in the wind as little more than an awkward public spectacle.

I think part of this has come from the realization that despite shutting down the opponent's running game, pitchers don't do that well throwning to Ivan.

Scouts and even some teammates have long whispered that Rodriguez is too preoccupied to bring out the best in the pitchers he catches. But he didn't seem to handicap a constantly changing pitching staff in 1996-99. The Rangers won three AL West titles with John Burkett as the only pitcher on hand for every playoff run.

Yes, but those weren't exactly great pitching teams.

Rodriguez, who had knee surgery in 2001 and was sidelined with a herniated disc early in 2002, is especially sensitive about concerns that he's headed toward a short career. Some believe he's worn himself thin by starting an average of 135 games a year from 1991-99.

Since when is 12 seasons for a catcher a short career? It seems short because he came up when he was 19, and he's only 31 now.

Maybe the right thing to do with Rodriguez, given his recent injury history and his reputation for not handling pitchers, is to move him to another position. ESPN did a piece a few years ago on I-Rod's quick feet, and how that would let him adapt easily to 2nd base. With his strong arm, the quick feet would work well at third as well. And of course, his bat fits in anywhere. I-Rod strikes me as a Felipe Alou type players, and the Giants need a third baseman, and they may need a 2nd baseman by the time the off season is over. Why not take the money saved on Kent and Bell, and give it Ivan to learn a new position?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Baseball
November 28, 2002
Japan Opener:
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John McGrath of KnoxNews.com doesn't like this idea:


Opening Day is a distinctly American ritual that celebrates the concept that all teams are created equal - well, in the standings, anyway. Opening Day is when the celebrities in the stands might be a mayor or congressman, not some yawning star of a Fox Network sitcom.

I tend to agree with this. It was nice once to have opening day in Japan. But I've always thought of opening day as a national holiday. McGrath is on the right track here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 PM | Baseball
Colon A Yankee?
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This article on ESPN.com has Omar Minaya denying it. I can't find the original NY Post article on-line.

All-in-all, I think it's a bad trade for the Yankees. If they want to do the Colorado trade, they would be short outfielders, and wouldn't want to trade Juan Rivera. And of course, I like Nick Johnson a lot. I think it would be a much better deal for the Yankees if they got rid of White and Mondesi and let Rivera play right and teach Nick Johnson to play left.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Baseball
November 27, 2002
Happy Thanksgiving:
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Just wanted to wish all my readers a very Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy your time with your family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Baseball
November 26, 2002
New Blog:
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Bronx Banter has musings mostly on the New York teams, but also on baseball in general. Check it out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:14 PM | Baseball
November 25, 2002
Great Players:
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The previous post (scroll down) prompted this question from Shawn Bernard:


So what's your definition of 'great'? Is it subjective, or do you have some statistical definition for it? ;) It would be interesting to see a list of all the teams with the numbers (and names) of all the great players per team.

When I wrote the comment below, I was taking a top of the head measure of greatness, with out giving it much thought. However, to answer Shawn's question, I thought I'd look at teams with players with 20 win shares. Players are listed with their current team, which means for free agents who haven't signed, their 2002 team. Here's the list:

Red Sox 6
Manny Ramirez 29.0
Nomar Garciaparra 27.0
Cliff Floyd 22.0
Derek Lowe 22.0
Pedro Martinez 21.0
Johnny Damon 21.0
Yankees 6
Jason Giambi 34.0
Bernie Williams 30.0
Alfonso Soriano 30.0
Derek Jeter 24.0
Jorge Posada 22.0
Robin Ventura 20.0
Diamondbacks 6
Randy Johnson 29.0
Luis Gonzalez 26.0
Curt Schilling 24.0
Steve Finley 23.0
Junior Spivey 23.0
Byung-Hyun Kim 20.0
Athletics 5
Miguel Tejada 32.0
Eric Chavez 25.0
Barry Zito 25.0
Tim Hudson 23.0
Ray Durham 20.0
Angels 4
Garret Anderson 24.0
Tim Salmon 22.0
Troy Glaus 22.0
David Eckstein 20.0
Mariners 4
John Olerud 27.0
Bret Boone 25.0
Ichiro Suzuki 25.0
Randy Winn 23.0
Braves 4
Chipper Jones 31.0
Andruw Jones 28.0
Gary Sheffield 26.0
Rafael Furcal 20.0
Cardinals 4
Albert Pujols 32.0
Jim Edmonds 29.0
Scott Rolen 28.0
Edgar Renteria 26.0
Indians 3
Jim Thome 34.0
Ellis Burks 21.0
Omar Vizquel 21.0
Blue Jays 3
Carlos Delgado 26.0
Eric Hinske 22.0
Roy Halladay 21.0
Astros 3
Lance Berkman 30.0
Jeff Bagwell 22.0
Roy Oswalt 20.0
Expos 3
Vladimir Guerrero 29.0
Jose Vidro 29.0
Bartolo Colon 22.0
Twins 2
Jacque Jones 25.0
Torii Hunter 21.0
Reds 2
Todd Walker 21.0
Adam Dunn 21.0
Phillies 2
Bobby Abreu 29.0
Pat Burrell 25.0
Padres 2
Ryan Klesko 31.0
Mark Kotsay 22.0
Giants 2
Barry Bonds 49.0
Jeff Kent 29.0
Rockies 2
Todd Helton 27.0
Larry Walker 26.0
Marlins 2
Derrek Lee 23.0
Mike Lowell 21.0
White Sox 1
Magglio Ordonez 26.0
Royals 1
Carlos Beltran 21.0
Brewers 1
Richie Sexson 22.0
Rangers 1
Alex Rodriguez 35.0
Cubs 1
Sammy Sosa 27.0
Dodgers 1
Shawn Green 30.0
Mets 1
Edgardo Alfonzo 25.0
Pirates 1
Brian Giles 32.0

The Red Sox are tied for first if they don't lose anyone, although the Yankees top 6 is probably deeper. Still, not to shabby for young Theo Epstein to start with. By the way, the Sox don't exactly have a young team. Of the regulars, only Nixon and Hillenbrand are younger than Epstein.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | Baseball
Sox Choose GM:
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After having breakfast this morning, I came upstairs and my wife said, "I heard something on the radio that the Sox had hired a new GM, and he's 12 years old!" All reports look like the Red Sox will choose Theo Epstein as their GM today. Bambino's Curse has one Sox fan's perspective, and it seems to be a positive one.

Epstein is an Ivy leaguer in the Alderson/Beane mold of a GM. It will take some time to rebuild the farm system, but the Sox have four great players (Martinez, Lowe, Garciappara and Ramirez), which gives Epstein a chance to work magic by finding the right pieces to fill in around them. The Sox management team appears to approach the game correctly. There's no reason, given the popularity of the Red Sox and the revenue they generate that the Sox can't build a consistent winner over the next few years. And if you have a good base, it's only a matter of time until all the lucky breaks come your way and the World Series throphy comes home.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 AM | Baseball
November 24, 2002

Peter Gammons has a list of 25 things wrong with baseball. Well worth reading. Here are my comments on the 25 items:


  1. No brainer agree.

  2. Aboslutely agree.

  3. I think they work with someone like Cal Ripken, who you want to keep forever. But those players are rare.

  4. I'd say the same apply to NL teams. Unless it's the pitcher batting, don't bunt.

  5. 100% Agreement. I've never understood the roster expansion.

  6. Same as #5.

  7. This is something wrong with a few players, not baseball.

  8. Regular readers know how I feel about the Expos and Bud Selig.

  9. Reminds me of an old Bill James essay, where he shows that only triples have less relevance to winning than SB.

  10. Goes without saying.

  11. I'm not passionate about this. I think the occasional tie adds a little bit of fun.

  12. The season is long enough. If you want to go to seven games division series, then shorten the regular season with 7 double headers during the year.

  13. I think that baseball has the least prejudice against short players, so I don't think this is a big problem.

  14. Yes.

  15. Agree.

  16. The problem with this is that so many outfielders move around, it's hard to peg them.

  17. I didn't know they didn't take infield practice every day!

  18. One thing at a time. If MLB wants to get rid of arbitration, then they will have to free players sooner.

  19. Agree, although this could be fixed by not awarding first base to players hit leaning over the strike zone.

  20. Love the quote here from the GM. Some of us figured that out in the 1980's!

  21. I think this depends, but in general I agree.

  22. K per 9 is the best measure, but my guess is that K per 9 is pretty well linked to how hard you throw. Speed on the gun is a good first measure, but it shouldn't eliminate someone who has a good K per 9 anyway.

  23. If you read the rule book, you find that uniform rules are not worth the paper they are written on.

  24. This is an interesting idea. But if teams are willing to walk Bonds with the bases loaded, I don't think it will make that much difference. Why not just go all the way and eliminate the IBB?

  25. Yes!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:37 PM | Baseball
Liberty Bell:
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David Bell has signed a four year, $17 million dollar deal with the Phillies. Bell's a decent player. He put up 19 win shares last year for the Giants, the third best among position players on the Giants. He's no Rolen (28 win shares between the Phillies and Cardinals in 2002), but the Phillies are getting four years for the price of one. However, it should be noted that 19 is Bell's career high in win shares, and he is 30. Still, the Phillies have filled an important hole for them without breaking the bank.

Still no SF angle on this deal yet. If they lose Kent also, Alou will be taking over a team that has lost 2 of it's 3 best position players. This may turn out to be a tougher job than Felipe thought it was going to be.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Baseball
November 23, 2002
Blog Conference:
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I attended a conference on blogs yesterday at the Yale Law School. A newly renovated building, it's simply beautiful (as a Harvard man, it pains me to write that, especially on the day of THE GAME). Some images from the conference can be seen here. In the first picture, I'm at the far left in the blue jeans. I'm in the same spot in a few other pictures. If you go to the main LawMeme blog, you can read about the conference, and find links to other bloggers who were there.

It was very enjoyable. I got to meet Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit.com and a number of other bloggers, all very nice people. The main idea I took away from the conference is that blogging may not be the way to make money on the internet, but it is the way to promote yourself and your ideas. If you are not involved in the blog conversation, I would greatly encourage you to start!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 AM | Baseball
New 3-Way Trade:
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In what has to be one of the strangest deals I've ever seen proposed, the Yankees, Mets and Rockies are working a deal that would bring Neagle to the Mets, Mondesi, White and Burnitz or Ordonez to the Rockies and reduce the Yankees payroll so they can acquire Hideki Matsui. As part of the deal, the Yankees would also pay 3.3 million of Neagle's salary! This trade is based on unnamed sources, so be sure to take it with a grain of salt until the deal is actually done.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM | Baseball
Alou:
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Felipe, that is. John Perricone has a long article about Alou over at Only Baseball Matters. I found these paragraphs interesting:


I don't know what type of manger he was, in terms of strategy or philosophy or whatever. I'd say that the way the Expos were run during his tenure would suggest that maybe no one does. How could you? How could you know that he is a swing away manager? His son Moises is one of the top OBP guys in the league, so was Larry Walker. Vidro is pretty good at getting on base. Guerrero doesn't walk a lot, but he's a hacker, and he can hit anything. Most of the players who you could categorize as free swingers are also exceedingly young, some as young as 21 or 22. Aren't most young players free swingers? In 1994, when he had a few guys with some experience, his starters did OK in OBP, and his first four guys off the bench all clocked in above .350. In 1993, his guys did even better than that. He had Deshields at .389, Walker at .371, Alou at .340, Grissom at .351, Berry at .348, Vanderwal off the bench at .372.

Looking at the team's statistics, it appears (to me, at least), that it was only after the team started watching all of the experienced, top-level talent leave that the hitters devolved into free swingers, and that's why he started to develop a reputation as a manager who ignored the benefits of a high on base approach.


Alou didn't develop Walker and Moises. He did develop Guerrero, and Vlad's walks went up significantly (from 60 to 84) under a manager whose approach was be selective. If you take Alou from 1995 through 2000, the time period where he was developing young players, the Expos were last in the majors in walks! (Not counting the 1998 expansion teams.)

I don't think Alou is going to screw up any veterans, but he's not the man I'd want teaching the importance of getting to my players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Baseball
Hidalgo Wounded:
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The AP reports (via ESPN.com) that Richard Hidalgo was shot during a carjacking in Venezuela. It doesn't appear to be too serious according to this report.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle has more, including what ballplayers think of the political situation in Venezuela. It appears that many of them are afraid to return home while Chavez holds power:


Because of the political turmoil in Venezuela, many Venezuelan players have remained in the United States this offseason.

The political climate and crime rates have worsened over the last year as Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez fights to maintain power. Some players were pleased when Chavez was temporarily overthrown in April by an interim government led by Pedro Carmona.

But Chavez regained power less than 48 hours after the coup.

Carmona was president of the chemical company Venoco, which owns the land where the Astros have their highly regarded baseball academy.

Many major-league clubs, including the Astros, had serious doubts about sending their prospects to the Venezuelan Winter League. Hidalgo and lefthander Carlos Hernandez were not participating in winter ball, but Hidalgo's incident highlights the concerns Venezuelan players have about returning to their country while Chavez remains in power.


Check out El Sur, a blog about South America with many posts about Venezuela.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 AM | Baseball
November 22, 2002
Roger Angell:
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Roger has his World Series wrap-up in this week's New Yorker Magazine. Unfortunately, it's not online. However, it's worth the trip to the library for the read. I especially like his take on Bonds' mental toughness, his comparison of Bonds, Soriano and Eckstein, his comparison of the way Eckstein approaches a plate apperance to Paul O'Neill, and how this group of Yankees have lost that approach and finally, the holy redemption of Mickey Hatcher.

I've subscribed to the New Yorker for about 16 years now. In most of that time, I've only read a handful of Roger Angell stories. It seems I read the first page and get bored. But lately, he's been much better, on the level of his early books. I wonder if he has a new editor at the New Yorker? His last few articles have been much higher quality, and it's nice to see.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Baseball
November 20, 2002

Reader James Townsend send this link to an online baseball magazine, The Diamond Angle. Lots of articles, photos and interviews. Check it out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM | Baseball
Expos Exported:
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The Montreal Expos will play 22 games (two home stands) in San Juan, PR this year.


Expos president Tony Tavares said that with the guaranteed income from the games in San Juan, his team will not have to conduct a "fire sale'' of players such as Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon. Still, he did not reveal the Expos' planned payroll.

Keeping those players is a good thing. Sometimes I get the feeling the league wants the Expos to fail so they can draft their players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM | Baseball
Hampton Deal:
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Tim Kurkjian has the wrap-up here. He points out something important about Charles Johnson:


The Wilson and Johnson contracts aren't good -- together they are owed $52 million -- and neither player is particularly good. But Johnson can handle a pitching staff and has good character, and Wilson should hit some home runs at Coors, and has developing character.

I don't go in much for character (Bill James once quipped that there are lots of people with good character, but only a few hundred that can play a major league brand of baseball), but I do go for catchers who can handle a pitching staff. The year the Rockies made the playoffs, they had Joe Girardi, and the pitching on that team was good. If Johnson can bring the Rockies road ERA down like Girardi did, he'll be a valuable pickup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM | Baseball
Blog Conference:
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Yale Law School is holding a blog conference this Friday. You can see the details here. I will be attending, and if any of you are also planning on being there, let me know. It's free, you just have to register. Glenn Reynolds, the keynote speaker, writes Instapundit, my favorite blog.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 AM | Baseball
November 17, 2002

This is the type of piece I love to read by Gammons, as opposed to his trade rumor articles. This gives you a clear idea of what is going on behind the scenes; how GM's are strapped for cash, and no one but the Phillies seem to be moving on free agents. Here's the irony for Cleveland fans:


Cleveland, meanwhile, can't get into the five-year, $75 million range on Jim Thome that the Phillies are willing to expend. The Indians this winter are paying into revenue sharing and the Phillies are getting $15 million, so Cleveland will be helping to pay for Thome's salary should he leave.

Gammons also names a number of players that teams are trying to move:

"Why wouldn't I be smart to wait?" asked one GM. "There are going to be several free agents that freefall into the first of the year. And look at all the players teams are begging to unload."


Here are a number of them:


Juan Gonzalez. Jay Powell. Todd Van Poppel. Carl Everett. David Segui. Marty Cordova. Scott Erickson. Brook Fordyce. John Burkett. Keith Foulke. Mark Wohlers. Dmitri Young. Matt Anderson. Damion Easley. Craig Paquette. Dean Palmer. Shane Halter. Bobby Higginson. Danny Patterson. Joe Randa. Timo Perez. Michael Tucker. Jeff Suppan. Rick Reed. Raul Mondesi. Rondell White. Sterling Hitchcock. Carlos Delgado. Jeff Cirillo. Greg Vaughn. Mo Vaughn. Ben Grieve. Todd Hundley. Hampton. Neagle. Walker. Richard Hidalgo. Eric Karros. Mark Grudzielanek. Jeffrey Hammonds. Eric Young. Burnitz. Ordonez. David Weathers. Roger Cedeno. Travis Lee. Jason Kendall. Kevin Young. Bubba Trammell. Livan Hernandez. J.T. Snow ...


The interesting thing about this list is that few of these players are any good. It used to be that when former players ran clubs, they'd see someone who was good once, and take a shot at them. That doesn't happen as much. Why?

What we are seeing is Bart Giamatti's vision of the future of baseball management. He hoped that a classical scholar who turned to the baseball business would encourage many bright and energetic university graduates to follow their hearts away from Wall Street to baseball, and that is precisely what is happening. Mariners GM Pat Gillick is considered a traditionalist, but as a 20-year-old graduate of USC was way ahead of his time, and a man whose brilliance has long been recognized. Sandy Alderson, a graduate of Dartmouth and Harvard Law, obviously has had a dramatic impact, with Beane and Blue Jays GM J. P. Ricciardi following his teachings, and now two future GMs under Beane in Harvardians Paul DePodesta and David Forst waiting in the wings. Shapiro is a graduate of Princeton, Jim Beattie of Dartmouth. Theo Epstein came out of Yale and got his law degree while working under Kevin Towers in San Diego. It now seems nothing for someone to go from any Ivy League or small, elite institution like Williams (Jim Duquette) or Amherst (Neil Huntington, Ben Cherrington) to go into baseball.


"The young circle of general managers like Beane, Shapiro, Brian Cashman, O'Dowd, Ricciardi, Towers and guys like that are very different," says agent Scott Boras. "Some of them are very bright, and very creative. I hate to admit it, but I think we agree more than we disagree on a lot of issues about which I have long felt very strongly." While discussing this very subject, one of the members of Boras' staff kidded him by saying, "we're not smarter than everyone anymore."


And that is good for the game. And so is a large number of free agents.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:53 PM | Baseball
Hampton Trade:
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I've been keeping my eye on this, but it always seemed to fluid to get a real feel for. Now, it appears to be done.

Hampton was a failure in Colorado. That's not so surprising, since Coors is a tough place to pitch. What is surprising is Hampton's home-road record as a Rockie: 12-9 with a 5.73 ERA at home, but 9-19 with a 5.77 ERA on the road! If Hampton had been able to put up his previous road ERA of 4.08, he probably would have been the best pitcher in Rockies history.

This all makes me wonder if Coors teaches pitchers bad habits. It seems to me that you need to be too different pitchers when you're working for the Rockies. I've sometimes thought that the Rockies should have home-road platoons on the pitching staff, although they'd probably have to carry 15 pitchers to make that work.

I think Atlanta is taking a huge risk here. Hampton, before the move to Colorado, was greatly helped by his home fields (2.89 ERA at home pre-Colorado). I think I'd rather keep Glavine.

I'm very excited for Charles Johnson, however. He handles pitching staffs well, and he has a decent eye for the strike zone, although he's not that good a hitter. I suspect Coors will add to his power, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start the All-star game next year.

And of course, the best part of the trade (from the above AP article):


Later, the former 22-game winner was traded by the Marlins to the Braves for reliever Tim Spooneybarger and an unnamed prospect, the Journal-Constitution reported.

When you get Tim Spooneybarger, does the other player really need a name? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 AM | Baseball
November 16, 2002
What About Bob?
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Bob Melvin has been hired to manage the Mariners. I'm disappointed once again that Willie Randolph didn't get a shot. But the Mariners seemed to have gone with a strategist this time:


Kidding aside, Melvin organized Arizona's spring training over the past two seasons, and he is credited as a major contributor to Brenly's success with the Diamondbacks.


''There's no doubt Bob Melvin has been a huge part of what's happened around here the past two years,'' Brenly said.


During his 10 seasons as a player, Melvin often posed questions to his managers as situations came up during games. It groomed him, if unwittingly, to be a manager himself.


Dave Campbell likes him, too:

Teams generally go with a different type of personality than the manager they had before. We haven't seen Melvin as a manager, but he has always been a low-key guy. Melvin is a solid, astute baseball man. He will command respect and get the players' attention, but he won't be nearly as fiery as Lou Piniella was.

I remember the 2001 postseason, seeing Melvin and Bob Brenly talking in the dugout, especially in one Division Series game against St. Louis and then again in Game 7 of the World Series. From a strategy standpoint, Melvin appeared to be the coolest guy on Earth while under fire.


I don't have much to go on here, but I'm very interested to see what his first lineup will look like.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Baseball
Baker a Cub:
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Here's the AP story via ESPN.com:


But Baker is well aware of what he faces. Asked about baseball's lovable losers, he's said the manager who got the Cubs to win would be ''the mighty man of Chicago.''


And if anyone can get the Cubs winning on a regular basis, it could be Baker. He went 840-715 in 10 seasons with the Giants and over the final six seasons his teams averaged 91 victories.


I don't know about that last statement. As evidenced in the World Series, Baker isn't that great a strategist. So his contribution has to be motivational, and if you can't be motivated playing with Sammy Sosa in front of a packed house every day, I 'm not sure what Baker can do.

What could make Baker win is signing Jim Thome. The same article reports:


''We're very thrilled to have him,'' MacPhail said. ''His record speaks for itself. He's an enormously popular manager with his players. As result, the field of players that would like to play for the Cubs has increased with tonight's announcement by a large amount.''


In fact, the Cubs might now actively pursue Jim Thome, who hit 52 home runs for Cleveland last season. They've already acquired catcher Damian Miller from Arizona in a trade.


If the Cubs can sign Thome, Baker would have a Chicago version of Bonds/Kent. And if Thome comes to Chicago due to the signing of Baker, that a major positive for Dusty. However, the Cubs were not weak at first base last year, so it will be interesting to see what other parts Andy MacPhail and Jim Hendry bring in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM | Baseball
November 13, 2002

That's Felipe, as manager. A good choice given the Giants team makeup. Alou is a tough man who commands the respect of all his players. Those of you who remember the BBTN Online chats from last year know that I don't think he's as great a manager as people make him out to be. Despite having some talent, he was never able to accomplish what the Twins did last year, for example. I think with the loss of Kent, the Giants will have a hard time getting back to the playoffs next year. This is a team that will be good but not great, so it's a perfect opportunity for Alou to show that he can make a difference in the W-L record of his charges.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:12 PM | Baseball
November 12, 2002
Tejada MVP:
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The AP article is on ESPN.com here.

I'm not surprised Tejada won the MVP, but I am surprised he won it by such a wide margin. I thought it would be fairly close between Tejada and A-Rod. Tejada is a very deserving candidate, and I'm not going to criticize the votes for him.

What I am going to criticize is that Rodriguez was almost beaten by Soriano. If you look at the complete voting, only twelve voters had A-Rod first or second; five had him worse than third. I can understand the argument for not voting A-Rod first (even though I don't agree with it), but I can't fathom any argument that he's not in the top two or three. And congrats to whoever voted for Soriano 10th. Anyone who had him above Giambi needs a good lesson in Sabremetrics.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:15 PM | Baseball
Dan Lewis:
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Dan Lewis has added discussion/forum boards to his blog. Go check them out. And also check out a couple of posts on Cuba and baseball here and here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Baseball
November 11, 2002
MVP:
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Barry Bonds has won his 5th NL MVP award, extending his record for MVP's. He won unanimously, the 14th player to do so. The results of the voting can be seen here.

He's had an amazing career. If he were a nice guy, they'd probably rename the NL MVP after him when he retired. Even Reggie Jackson thinks Bonds is good:


"The guy to me, Bonds, has been the most dominant from what I've seen in 35 years of watching major league baseball," said Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson, the AL MVP in 1973. "I haven't seen anybody do what Bonds has done the last two years."

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | Baseball
GM Meetings:
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Dave Van Dyck has a roundup of the GM meetings. Given that the Expos don't have a budget, you wonder if Minaya is still happy about staying with the Expos.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM | Baseball
Beaned:
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Billy Beane is staying with the Oakland A's.


''As corny as it sounds, Billy just took a good, hard look inside,'' said A's spokesman Jim Young. ''He decided that, even with a very attractive offer on the table, his heart really belonged in Oakland.''

The development rocked the Sox' search for a permanent GM, robbing team officials of their last hope of landing their top candidate and leaving them with a list of fallback contenders more than six weeks into the process.

''We did, in fact, have a deal with him,'' said a Sox official close to the talks, ''but personal matters ended up overwhelming the deal.''


So in 24 hours, the Red Sox go from being a sabremetrician's dream team to looking like something is seriously wrong. I think this story is being spun to keep from embarrassing the Red Sox too much. Why is it that the Red Sox are having such a hard time hiring a GM? I mean, Omar Minaya would rather stay with the Expos than build a famous franchise into a winner. Beane's worried about his daughter? Great, but I have to imagine that any GM jobs keeps you from your family, no matter where you live. And if you are making $2 million a year, you can fly her out to Boston to spend the summer with you (it's not like there's nothing to do in Boston). No, I'm afraid there is something deeper going on here. Someone in the Red Sox organization is turning off potential GM candidates.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM | Baseball
November 07, 2002
Very Barry:
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Zito, that is. Barry wins the 2002 Cy Young Award. It was decently close, as Zito beat out Pedro Martinez 114 to 96, and nearly universal support for Derek Lowe being third. No one put Lowe first instead of Martinez, but I wonder how many voters put Pedro third and Lowe 2nd? If Pedro had been ahead of Lowe on all ballots I believe he would have won the award.

NL and AL Cy Young awards each agree with win share totals. It will be interesting to see how the MVP voting goes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:34 PM | Baseball
November 06, 2002
Giant Departure:
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Dusty Baker is leaving the Giants:


At 53, Baker just completed his 10th year with the Giants. He led San Francisco to its first World Series since 1989 before losing in seven games to the Anaheim Angels.


But Baker apparently felt slighted because Magowan always pointed out everybody else's contributions when asked what he thought of Baker's role in the team's success.


Baker also became angry when Magowan said in spring training that this was the best team the Giants had fielded in his 10 years of ownership. Baker thought that put too much pressure on the players.


Well, I guess Dusty won't be managing the Yankees anytime soon. :-) Only Baseball Matters thinks Dusty will stay.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM | Baseball

Rob Neyer, a former assistant to Bill James has the story. This is probably going to work a lot better than Duquette's attempt, because John Henry is going to have everyone on the same page:


However, the Red Sox have yet to hire a new general manager. Of the serious candidates mentioned to this point, none are particularly known for their statistical acumen. That said, it's unlikely the Red Sox will hire a new GM who's not at least somewhat amenable to the sort of work that Bill James does.

As Lucchino said, "We've got a list of 10 or 12 attributes that guide us in our search for a general manager, and one of the ones near the top of the list -- in fact, I keep this on my desk to remind me -- reads: "Acceptance of, at least openness to, more modern quantitative analysis of player evaluation and performance, and equal comfort with more traditional observational approaches."

So you've got the assistant general manager (Theo Epstein), the President and CEO (Lucchino), the owner (Henry), and presumably the general manager ... all of them aboard the Sabermetric Express.

And now they've got Bill James. The Red Sox' top executives believe in sabermetrics, they've got one of the biggest budgets in the game, and they've got the man who, though he didn't invent sabermetrics (aside from the word itself, which he did invent), did create a generation of sabermetricians.


I'm very happy for Bill. I've had the pleasure to sitting across from him and watching his mind work. He's an intuitive mathematician, and his intuition is astounding. If Bill can help put the Red Sox over the top, it will be a banner day for Sabremetrics.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | Baseball
November 05, 2002
Big Win:
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Randy Johnson has won the Cy Young Award unanimously. After Schilling fell apart in September, the Big Unit became the obvious choice. What surprises me is that Schilling got nearly all the 2nd place votes. Greg Maddux had as many win shares as Schilling, but doesn't get a mention. Nice to see Colon, who had more win shares than both, got a vote.

Correction: Michael Longfield points out that I looked at the wrong list of win share leaders here. I looked at the short form results, instead of the long form results. Given this, Schilling more than deserved the 2nd place vote. Sorry for the mistake.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:31 PM | Baseball
Rookie of the Year:
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I was busy yesterday and missed the announcement. However, this year there didn't seem to be a lot of buzz about the choices. I'll take a closer look at ROY and CY later tonight, as part of election coverage. :-)

By the way, being election day, I took the "which founding father are you" quiz. Here's the result:

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:32 PM | Baseball
November 03, 2002
Back to the Future:
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Massachusetts high schools are going back to using wooden bats:


Except for the pros and a sparse number of amateur leagues, they just aren't used anymore. Aluminum bats are lighter, easier to hit and don't break. But has the technology gone too far, sacrificing safety for performance?

Members of the Massachusetts Interscholastic Athletic Association (MIAA) think that it has.

Baseballs are hit so hard with aluminum bats they threaten the safety of players in the field, says the MIAA Baseball Committee which voted Thursday in favor of requiring wooden bats in the 2003 tournament, the first step toward instituting a rule that could ban aluminum bats in all high school games beginning next season.


There are some people who feel the aluminum bat has led to the explosion of offense in the 1990's. The speculation is that the aluminum bat lets the hitter easily connect on the inside pitch, a pitch that is difficult to hit with an aluminum bat. So the college pitchers never learn to pitch inside effectively. I don't know how true this is, but it's interesting speculation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM | Baseball
November 02, 2002
Randolph:
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I've been a fan of Willie Randolph's for a long time. I'm glad to see the Mariners liked what he said in his interview:


The Mariners talked to Randolph and Perlozzo on Day 4 of their search.


"Willie comes from an organization that's had a winning background,'' Gillick said. "He basically wants to win and he knows how to win. He's got some good ideas on how to carry that forward.''


However, I'd love to hear what those ideas are. Otherwise, it just might be a GM saying nice things about a candidate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Baseball
November 01, 2002
Asian Invasion Continues:
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Hideki Matsui is heading for the US major leagues. It appears that he's the Barry Bonds of Japan (in the good sense):


Matsui, nicknamed Godzilla, just missed winning the triple crown this season. Along with a Central League-leading 50 homers and 107 RBIs, the left-handed hitting Matsui posted a .334 batting average, second only to Kosuke Fukudome of the Chunichi Dragons, who had a .343 average.

Also Friday, Matsui was named the Central League's MVP, picking up the honour a third time.


Unlike Ichiro and Shinjo, Matsui would be expected to be a power hitter in the US. The reaction to his leaving is mixed; the Yomiuri Giants wanted to keep him, but the prime minister is looking forward to seeing him play in the majors.

I think Japanese baseball is now facing a very big challenge or opportunity, depending on how you look at it. Like the Negro Leagues in the late 1940's, the Japanese leagues face a syphoning off of their best players, reducing the quality of their play. But unlike the Negro Leagues, Japan has the resources to fight back; they can make their teams more multinational. It's rumored that American ballplayers in Japan are limited so that Japanese records are not broken. It's time to stop this, and for Japan to make every effort to put together teams that are competitive with ML teams. That may mean signing American and Latin players; it might mean going after the best Korean, Chinese and Austrailian players. By doing this, they will improve their level of play, and give a good reason for their home grown stars to stay. It could even lead to a real World Series, where the North American champion plays the Asian champion. Japanese baseball is at the cross roads; let's see which way they turn.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM | Baseball