April 15, 2008
Royals by the Numbers
Zack Greinke pitched another outstanding game last night, going the distance for the Royals as they defeated the Mariners 5-1. What's most impressive about Zack this season is that he's averaging eight innings per start. Monday night he needed just 107 pitches to set down the Mariners. He threw that many against the Yankees over eight innings in his previous start, and 99 over seven innings in this first outing. Greinke is showing a Maddux-like efficiency. Greg pitched the most innings in the majors from 1990-1999, but was no where near the leaders in most pitches thrown.
The Royals now boast three of the top ten ERAs in the American League. Bradford Doolittle notes that they've had great defense behind them:
The Royals have played like a solid .500 team so far this season, perhaps a little above. But the pitching and defense have been a whole lot better than that.
The run-preventers have allowed 32 runs, or fewer than three per game. The pitchers have posted an AL-best 2.58 ERA. The fielders' defensive efficiency record (.727) is just a shade behind the Orioles (.730) for best in the league.
He continues:
As for the .727 defensive efficiency record, if maintained, that number would be the stuff of legend. It can't last. Last year's league average was .687, and the league leaders were at .706. So a few of those ground balls are going to start getting through to the outfield, and some of those drives are going to start plugging the gap.
The Royals can't do a whole lot about the coming regression in DER, nor can they maintain their extreme strand rate. But they can continue to attack the hitters as well as they have so far. And the fielders can maintain their ranking, if not their rate, and make sure the DER stays as high as possible. To that end, the team is going to face a tough decision if its slick-fielding shortstop, Tony Peña, continues his one-hit-every-other-week pace.
Two years ago, the Royals posted a poor DER, but PMR showed it was the pitchers, not the defense at fault. Maybe this year's great DER has a bit to do with Bannister and Greinke making it easier on the fielders.
Update: Sam Mellinger suggests the bullpen starts gardening.
Posted by David Pinto at
07:51 AM
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The Royals now have a staff ERA nearly a full run better than anybody else in the league. As the stat guru notes, "It can't last."
But KC has been spotted a three-game lead over Cleveland and a five-game lead over Detroit. That's a nice loaf on the shelf for the inevitable harder times ahead.
The team has got to start hitting more, of course. 3.3 runs scored per game ain't gonna cut it.
I still don't see KC contending in the non-parity league. Can they petition for a switch to the NL?
They are not as good as Cleveland under any circumstances - They might fall in the middle somewhere but they'll be lucky to finish > .500