Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 31, 2005
Theo's Statement
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The text of Theo Epstein's exit statement is at MLB.com.

My decision not to return as General Manager of the Red Sox is an extremely difficult one. I will always cherish the relationships I developed here and am proud to have worked side-by-side with so many great people, in and out of uniform, as together we brought a World Championship to Boston.

In my time as General Manager, I gave my entire heart and soul to the organization. During the process leading up to today's decision, I came to the conclusion that I can no longer do so. In the end, my choice is the right one not only for me but for the Red Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers Thoughts on Dodgers Tradition
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Jon Weisman spells out quite nicely what traditions the Dodgers hold dear:

The record shows that DePodesta did not put the Dodgers in the playoffs again in 2005. Shocking, I know. Do you know what the Dodgers' record for consecutive postseason appearances is in their 121-year history? Two. It is a Dodger tradition, like it or not, to have disappointment and then regroup.

Smith, perhaps the Dodgers' highest-profile outside acquisition from the 1970s, missed 301 games in his six seasons with the team. Kirk Gibson, perhaps the Dodgers' highest-profile acquisition from the 1980s, played 71 games the season after his great home run - one fewer than J.D. Drew - and was soon unceremoniously dumped. It is a Dodger tradition, like it or not, for key players to get hurt and stay hurt.

The Dodgers traditionally win when they rely on their farm system and the farm system produces. To be sure, the farm system doesn't always produce. But in their entire history in Los Angeles, the team has made only one playoff appearance with fewer than five home-grown players in the starting lineup. That team was the hallowed 2004 team at whose breakup everyone is so aghast.

DePodesta bet his future on the Dodger Way, transforming the team into one that was going to rely on the farm system, supported by a few outside acquisitions. He had not finished the job - a 71-91 record indicates that - but he was doing exactly what people have been asking for since 1988. He was doing exactly what the Dodgers have been doing almost forever.

I've been reading the many comments left about the firing on this blog, trying to decide how I feel about DePodesta's departure. The main argument in favor of the firing is that Paul didn't build on last season's success; when he had a team to put together, it ended up with a poor record.

His defenders site that he didn't have enough time. He was building toward a sustainable model that would put the Dodgers in contention for a number of years.

I can't say there were many moves I didn't like. Signing Lowe didn't sit well with me at first, but the more I read the reasons for the contract, the more I could accept it. Kent isn't as bad a defensive second baseman as some would suggest. Choi is a good hitter, if someone would let him play every day.

What tips me against the firing, however, is that DePodesta was hired for five years. He was trying to win today, but my guess is he was more interested in winning tomorrow. Sometimes, you do need to take a step back. Paul wasn't going to make rash moves due to injuries; that wasn't the plan. He was willing to eat this season to be better in the future. He's not going to get the chance, and that's a shame.

If the Dodgers hire Gillick, I expect Pat to do very well. While Gillick paints himself as the anti-Moneyball GM, he's not. Gillick does with his head what DePodesta does with a computer. Look at the teams he created in Toronto and Seattle. His offenses were built around players with great OBAs. He knew when to replace high priced stars with cheaper ones who also had talent. His trade of Fernandez and McGriff for Alomar and Carter made the team younger and better, especially as he was able to move Olerud into the first base slot. It was a great Moneyball deal.

Gillick will win with the foundation laid by Evans and DePodesta, and we'll hear no end of how much better his style does.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM | Management | Comments (13) | TrackBack (1)
Theo Epstein Resigns
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The Boston Herald reports that Theo Epstein resigned from the Red Sox this afternoon. Theo shows he's no Brian Cashman:

Epstein had done some agonizing soul-searching the past few days, torn between staying at the job he had always coveted since his childhood days in Brookline and leaving because of intra-organizational politics and power struggles that he ultimately decided he could not live with any longer.

Money and length of the contract were not issues in the past few days for Epstein, who had lobbied hard for an annual salary of more than $1 million a year.

Epstein had come close to agreeing to a deal Saturday evening but had not officially conveyed acceptance of it. On Sunday, he began having serious misgivings about staying on. A leading contributing factor, according to sources close to the situation, was a column in Sunday’s Boston Globe in which too much inside information about the relationship between Epstein and his mentor, team president and CEO Larry Lucchino, was revealed -- in a manner slanted too much in Lucchino’s favor. Epstein, according to these sources, had several reasons to believe Lucchino was a primary source behind the column and came to the realization that if this information were leaked hours before Epstein was going to agree to a new long-term deal, it signaled excessive bad faith between him and Lucchino.

Good for Theo. He stuck to his guns and when it wasn't going to work out, he left. It's the Red Sox loss. Theo can go home knowing his the only living person to put together a championship in Boston.

I'm sure Paul DePodesta's phone will be ringing soon, although given his situation with management in LA, he might not want the Red Sox job either. I suspect the line is forming on Yawkey way for the job right now.

It looks like the Herald, not the plugged in Globe, had the better story today. A great job by the Herald on this whole story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:01 PM | Management | Comments (27) | TrackBack (3)
Pena to the Yankees?
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The Daily News is reporting that the Yankees are interested in hiring Tony Pena as a coach.

The second benefit to adding Pena is that the Bombers currently are without a specialized catchers coach. Bench coach Joe Girardi worked with Jorge Posada, John Flaherty and the other catchers during spring training and continued that responsibility during the season, but he has left to become the manager of the Marlins.

Typically, a team might look for a catching specialist to be its bullpen coach, but the Bombers are leaning toward giving that job to Joe Kerrigan - who has been a pitching coach for three teams - so they'd need to address the need elsewhere. That's where Pena, who won four Gold Gloves and played 1,950 games at catcher during his 18 seasons, comes in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:34 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Haunted House
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The Royals turned Kauffman stadium into a haunted house, and Joe Posnanski uses the tour as a chance to say what scares him about the Royals.

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Royals’ defense lately, which is probably not too healthy. But I can’t shake this feeling that the biggest problem for the Royals — and this is a team loaded with more problems than Apollo 13 — is their atrocious defense.

Here’s why I think defense might be a bigger problem than the Royals’ Dow Jones ERA or their complete inability to get on base: I’m not sure the Royals even know that they have an atrocious defense.

Take Terrence Long. At the end of the season, Mike Sweeney said Long should win a Gold Glove for his play in left field. Royals general manager Allard Baird concurred. The Royals, almost unanimously, praised the wonderful defense of Terrence Long.

Well, Baseball Prospectus, a Web site dedicated to helping people understand baseball, broke down some numbers and rated Long about eight runs below the average left fielder. That is awful. It also was consistent with the views of former teammates who, according to longtime Bay Area sportswriter Glenn Dickey, nicknamed Long “Magellan” for his around-the-world routes to fly balls.

See, defense allows you delude yourself. If a guy makes a couple of diving catches and doesn’t make too many stupid mistakes, you can start to believe, “Hey, that guy’s pretty good.” I think that’s what happened to the Royals. They had, by far, the worst defense in baseball last year. There is a statistic called “Defensive Efficiency” — invented by Bill James almost 30 years ago — that measures one thing. The rate batted balls are turned into outs. That’s it. If the other team hits 100 balls in play (home runs don’t count) and your team gets 70 outs, you’re defensive efficiency is 70. This is a crucial statistic, of course, since getting outs is half the game (scoring runs is the other half).

Last season, the Oakland Athletics led both leagues by getting outs 71.5 percent of the time. The Chicago White Sox were second at 71.3. The Houston Astros led the National League in Defensive Efficiency.

The Royals? Dead last. They made outs only 66.7 percent of the time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
You Can Always Go, Downtown
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Here's an interesting article on how Anaheim is trying to develop a downtown around its ballpark, instead of the other way around.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | Stadiums | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
DePodesta's Moves
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A Large Regular evaluates each of Paul DePodesta trades and signings and concludes the Dodgers GM did a pretty good job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Management | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Globe Reports Epstein Signed
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The Boston Globe has a different take from the Herald, reporting that Theo Epstein will sign for three years. Since the Globe has a vested interest in the Red Sox, you'd think they had the inside line on the story.

It is believed that Epstein, who made $350,000 last season, ranking him near the bottom of baseball's GM pay scale, will have the chance to make close to what he was seeking ($1.5 million per year). That would position him among baseball's best-compensated general managers.

I hope this news is true, if for no other reason than it makes this post look really good:

On Oct. 31st they'll split the difference and Theo will get around 1.4 million. There's no reason to sign before the deadline for either side. They'll each see who blinks first.

I just wonder who did the blinking.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Appreciating Franchise
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It looks like the World Championship resulted in a big increase in value for the White Sox franchise:

Forbes, using available business data and expert analysis, annually estimates the worth of major league teams. In the spring, it pegged the value of the team at $262 million, calling it "among the most poorly managed franchises in baseball.'' Forbes noted low attendance and general failure on the field in citing a worth 21 percent lower than the league average.

Winning changes everything.

"All told, the boost in revenue should propel the value of the White Sox to more than $300 million by next season,'' writes Michael Ozanian, who covers pro sports for Forbes. He cites an increase in demand for tickets and a hike in sponsorship fees.

The team was purchased for $20 million dollars in 1981. That's means the team is appreciating at over 10% year, and good return for any long term investment.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Hard to See, the Dark Side Is
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The Boston Herald's Michael Silverman reports there are no signs as to which way Theo Epstein will decide his future with the Red Sox.

According to sources close to the talks, Epstein had neither reached a decision nor indicated which way he was leaning late last night. He planned to sleep on it and reveal his answer sometime today. The contract for the services of the 31-year-old Epstein expires at midnight. While conventional wisdom and common sense were pointing toward Epstein accepting a deal for at least three years and more than $1 million annually, the nearly equally realistic scenario in play last night was that Epstein would ultimately decide to walk away from the job.

Silverman points to one thing that might bring Theo back:

Demanding his colleagues to build a scouting and player development “machine” when he took the reigns in November 2002, Epstein has the opportunity in the next few seasons to oversee the integration of those young players into the current veteran-laden squad. Perhaps the greatest achievement of any general manager, beyond pulling off a blockbuster, one-sided trade or landing a top-shelf free agent, is to produce a steady (and cheap) supply of young, productive talent that would make his team a highly competitive and efficient ballclub for years to come.

This is what DePodesta was not allowed to do for the Dodgers. What this new breed of GM realizes is that young talent is just as good as old talent and a lot less expensive. Epstein, unlike Towers and Ricciardi, took over a good team and was able to tweak it into a champion while still rebuilding the farm. You've seen what this approach can do in Atlanta, Oakland, Minnesota and Cleveland; playoff contenders without sky rocketing payrolls.

Unlike the Dodgers, however, the loss of Theo won't change the Red Sox philosophy much. John Henry agrees with this method, so the new GM is likely to be in the same mold. Losing Theo won't be a disaster for the Red Sox, but it would be nice to see Epstein take his plan to fruition.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Rating the Rookies
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Tom Singer at MLB.com handicaps the NL Rookie of the Year. I'd go with Ryan Howard myself. His batting average wasn't as high as Francoeur's, but Ryan's OBA and slugging percentage was better. Ryan was also pretty even home and road, while Francoeur was greatly helped by his ballpark.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 AM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Off Season Preview
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I'm a guest on today's podcast of Without a Curse.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:30 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 30, 2005
Al Lopez Passes
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Al Lopez passed away today.

Lopez was best known for being the only AL manager to lead teams that finished ahead of the New York Yankees between 1949-64. He helped the Indians to the 1954 pennant and, until last week, was the last manager to lead the White Sox to the World Series -- their 1959 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

"We're saddened by the news," White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said through a spokesman Sunday. "Al lived a long and good life. We're so pleased we were able to win the World Series this year and that he was able to see it before he died."

Lopez posted an impressive record as a manager, compiling 15 consecutive winning seasons with Cleveland and Chicago. His career winning percentage is an impressive .584, which would be good for 95 wins in a 162 game season.

My thoughts are with his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:44 PM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Welfare Reform
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One thing we'll need to deal with next year is an expiring collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs on on Dec. 19, 2006. I don't know the time tables for striking vs. locking out vs. declaring an impasse, but my feeling is the 2006 season is in no danger. Anyone who knows more about labor law might want to argue that in the comments.

I'm really not sure if there are any sticking points between the union and the owners now. Given the last agreement, the owners appear to have accepted the current structure of arbitration and free agency. They'll argue about the drug testing policy, but I suspect it will get tougher, especially the penalties for the 2nd and 3rd offenses.

The real problem facing MLB is that revenue sharing isn't working. As Andrew Zimbalist points out in his book, National Pastime, the current system discourages low revenue teams from getting better. Basically, if they spend more money on players to increase revenue (fans in the seats, e.g.) they lose money on revenue sharing. The increased revenue cuts down on their share of the pot, to the point that they make more money by not trying to improve the team. That's what you're seeing in Tampa Bay and Kansas City. These teams are living on welfare, and there's no reason for them to get off the dole.

What seemed to work when the US government instituted welfare reform were rules that required work, but did not penalize recipients for working. The Earned Income Tax Credit makes it worthwhile to work instead of collecting assistance:

In 2003 more than 21 million working families claimed this tax credit. The purpose of the program is to reduce the tax burden on low income working people and to supplement their wages. Workers with dependent children usually receive refunds of $1,000 or more for each year in which they are qualified for the program. In some cases, the refunds are equal to—or even exceed—federal income tax payments withheld from these taxpayers’ paychecks.

Workers whose earnings are too low for them to pay income taxes can get cash back from the EITC program by filing federal income tax forms. This is true even if they have no tax liability and no money was withheld from their paychecks for taxes. The EITC also is available retroactively for up to three years for qualified taxpayers who file amended returns or who were not required to file but later learned that they were eligible for the credit.

The EITC program is credited with helping more children escape poverty than any other government initiative. Yet many researchers and advocates believe that the EITC is under used by qualified taxpayers—15% to 20% of eligible taxpayers may fail to claim the credit.

MLB needs something like this. If we want Kansas City and Tampa Bay to be successful franchises, then money from revenue sharing needs to be spent on making their clubs competitive. MLB needs to implement rules that allow the revenue of poor clubs to grow as they improve, and support them until they can support themselves. But the clubs must be required to work toward improvements. Basically, if a club receives money and spends it to improve the club (better record or more gate receipts, e.g.), their share of revenue won't go down the following year. Likewise, a club that takes money and cuts payroll should have their level of support drop as well, and shared money should go to zero in a short time if the practice persists.

All sides should want such an agreement. Low revenue teams doing better means a healthier game. That's better TV and Radio ratings all over, more money for the central fund, more money for salaries, and an increasingly popular game. The current system flushes money from one set of owners into the pockets of others with little impact on improving the sport. Rather than abandoning the system, it's time to put incentives in place to force teams to better their play and grow their markets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:30 PM | Management | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Replacing the Legend
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Roger McDowell gets the nod as Atlanta's new pitching coach.

"We are absolutely thrilled to add Roger to our staff," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "Roger was a great competitor as a player -- he started, he relieved and he even fought through arm problems, so he comes in a with great level of experience that our pitchers will learn from."

McDowell's worked in the Dodgers farm system as a pitching coach. The Las Vegas affiliate finished last in 2005, and the pitching stats looked really bad.

McDowell's great strength as a pitcher was keeping the ball in the park. In his career, he allowed just 50 home runs in 1050 innings. We'll see if he can pass that skill on to the Braves pitchers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The DePodesta Aftermath
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Steve Henson writes the news article for the LA Times. With all around him chaos, DePodesta manages a dignified quote on his way out the door:

DePodesta learned that he would be fired from a reporter Friday. McCourt did not speak to him until Saturday morning, but by the afternoon DePodesta seemed to have come to terms with losing his job. He has three years left on a five-year contract and will be paid about $2.2 million.

"I truly believe that this franchise is poised to begin the next great era of Dodger baseball," DePodesta said. "I have a tremendous amount of affection for the players, staff and front office and I wish everyone the best of luck. Most importantly, I want to thank the fans for their unparalleled support of the team."

We also find out that being a Dodger is very important:

Now Hershiser is considered a candidate for a front-office position as well as for manager. A source said Dodger special advisor Tom Lasorda twice met with Hershiser in Texas about a month ago.

"He obviously keenly understands what it means to be a Dodger," McCourt said. "We want to restore the glory and we want to achieve greatness. The Dodgers are a special franchise and we want Dodgers here."

Look for the team to have great pitching and an overrated first baseman in the future.

Bill Plaschke doesn't attempt to hide his glee at the computer geek getting fired:

Some will say this means the Dodgers are in chaos. I say this means they are finally seeking order.

Some will say DePodesta wasn't given a fair chance. I say he never should have been hired in the first place.

Some say this makes Dodger owner McCourt look like a man who has lost control. I say this is about him finally taking control, however clueless and callous he appears.

Some say, a hasty firing. I say, a smart trade.

DePodesta and his strange managerial candidate list have been dealt into our memories for Pat Gillick, Orel Hershiser and Bobby Valentine.

T.J. Simers goes to the source to see what Tommy Lasorda had to do with it:

A FEW months ago, Ken Rosenthal, a writer for the Sporting News who has since moved on to Foxsports.com, reported disharmony in the Land of the Clueless, suggesting Tom Lasorda was sticking a knife in DePodesta's back and badmouthing him to McCourt.

I don't know where these guys get that kind of stuff. Lasorda called it a "lie," but with DePodesta lying in pool of blood at McCourt's feet Saturday, I asked Lasorda again — you know, just to make sure — was there any truth to it?

"That is the biggest lie; in front of God, it's a stinking, no good lie," Lasorda shouted, and I noticed he shouted a little louder when he saw a TV camera rolling. "He has absolutely no proof of that. I never said anything bad about Paul DePodesta. I have never, ever said a bad word about Paul DePodesta to Frank."

Why not? I asked. Everybody else has been critical of the guy from Day 1, which makes you wonder why McCourt's top baseball advisor wasn't knocking the guy who was in over his head from the outset.

Maybe McCourt could just see it in Lasorda's eyes.

It also appears that Lasorda will be picking the new GM.

I (Simmers) don't know anyone who has been working harder than Lasorda, at times the only one in town praising two people who can't seem to do anything right.

"I might be a lot smarter than you guys," Lasorda said when asked to explain why he seems to be alone in his assessment.

I know he was the only one paid by McCourt standing in our group — and although he was quick to point out, "I didn't pick the last GM" — name me someone else in the Dodger organization you'd like to see pick the new GM.

"I've mentioned my selection to Frank, and you'll know as soon as we get a new GM if he was listening to me," Lasorda said with that smug smile he gives when he already knows the answer.

Lasorda's blog, however is quiet right now. Come on, Tommy, if you're going to blog, give us the inside scoop!


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2005
Finn on Free Agents
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Chad Finn at Touching All the Bases looks at this year's free agent class and who out there might help the Red Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:17 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Will Carroll Interview
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Will Carroll offered me a chance to interview him about the steroid rumors, and I was more than happy to oblige. I submitted questions to Will by e-mail, and here are his replies.


Baseball Musings: You've helped confirm a rumor about an AL playoff outfielder testing positive for steroids. How did you come to have this information?

Will Carroll: This is false. I was involved in an appeals process, very tangentially. I don't know a name but have heard rumors, much as many journalists have. When Jamie asked the question, I confirmed that I had heard this rumor and due to my involvement with an appeal, I couldn't comment further. I didn't mean for this to be any confirmation.

As to my involvement, I was asked to comment on the nature of the substance, its use by players, and if I'd heard anything about the use of a certain "cocktail" of substances. There was nothing specific and I had no bearing that I know of on any hearings that may or may not have occurred. I'm certainly not an arbitrator or expert witness as some have speculated.


BM: I have heard from two sources that the player is not on the White Sox. Is this true?

WC: I don't know.


BM: When asked, "Is this a name we're actually going to care about?" by Jamie Monttram, you answered yes. Why do we care about this player?

WC: I think as baseball fans, we should care about any athlete. My perspective as someone that's followed this story as closely as anyone might be skewed a bit. If it is true that it's a playoff player, then it calls the integrity of the testing program into question and will be a media firestorm.


BM: Are we going to be surprised by the name? In other words, is it someone for whom the allegations are new?

WC: I don't know.


BM: Do you know if the drug detected is easily found in contaminated supplements?

WC: I can't comment on the actual substance, but cross-contamination of the substances that players have tested positive for this year is nearly impossible. Drugs like winstrol and the metabolites that are detected in drug tests are very specific.


BM: In your opinion, does the player have a good defense for why he tested positive?

WC: I do not know if he has any defense or what it is.


BM: When do you expect the decision to be made?

WC: I don't know. I still have a poor handle on how the process works. It appears to be much like the suspension appeals for a fight or hit batsmen - takes a while to get everyone together. The steps that the new policy calls for extends that period. It's too bad that this can't be enough of a priority to make everyone - agent, league, union - get together at the first possible opportunity.


BM: If the player is suspended, when does the suspension begin? Is it the first day of the 2006 regular season?

WC: That's consistent with the Heredia suspension, handed down recently.

Thanks, Will.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:59 PM | Cheating | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Fired
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Here's the official firing story from the AP.

He had been an assistant to Oakland GM Billy Beane since 1998 when he was hired by McCourt at age 31. DePodesta worked for the Cleveland Indians for three years before joining the A's.

Beane, under tight payrolls restrictions in Oakland, lead the revolutionary change in player evaluation that valued statistics over gut instincts. Author Michael Lewis wrote the 2004 bestseller "Moneyball" about Beane's approach to the game, which was adapted by DePodesta.

The technique has been criticized for underestimating the importance of team chemistry.

DePodesta signed loners Kent and Drew in the offseason and there was an ugly clubhouse feud in August between Kent and Bradley. Bradley, who is black, accused Kent of a lack of leadership and an inability to deal with black players.

You see, the ability to get on base strike out batters or catch fly balls in the gap doesn't matter if you don't have chemistry. You remember the great team chemistry the three time World Champion Oakland A's had in the early 1970s. Yep, give me chemistry, or give me death.

DePodesta has three years left on his contract which I assume the Dodgers have to honor. Paul, if you'd like to take some time off and live off the Dodgers for a couple of years, you're more than welcome to join me blogging here at Baseball Musings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:46 PM | Management | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Blowing in the Wind
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Now Manny Ramirez wants to be traded.

Gene Mato, one of Manny Ramirez's representatives, communicated to Red Sox owner John W. Henry yesterday that Ramirez wants to be traded, and will not report to spring training if his wish to be dealt is not met, according to a team source.

Except maybe he doesn't (emphasis added).

Ramirez is a 10-5 player, meaning he has 10 years of major league service, five consecutive with the same team. That seniority entitles Ramirez to block a trade to any team he doesn't wish to join. With that in mind, Mato told Henry that Ramirez might decide during the process of being shopped that he wishes to remain with the Sox.

Next week: Manny wants to pitch.

Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:29 PM | Players | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
DePodesta Out?
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The LA Times is reporting that DePodesta is on his way out as Dodgers GM. I'm a bit surprised by this and am taking the report with a grain of salt. After all, why fire the manager because he doesn't get along with the GM, then fire the GM?

On Oct. 3, the day after the season finale, the Dodgers announced they had "parted ways" with Tracy, who was hired to manage the Pittsburgh Pirates eight days later. DePodesta soon announced a list of five managerial candidates, and it became clear that the leader was Collins, the Dodger farm director.

McCourt gave DePodesta a vote of confidence during an interview with The Times on Oct. 6, but he also made it clear he would not tolerate another losing season.

"The tremendous success we had last year and the huge disappointment this year just reinforced that it is a path, a plan, an overall approach to win consistently," McCourt said. "You can't get too high with the highs and too low with the lows. We're not as smart as we seemed in 2004 and not as dumb as we seemed this year.

Whenever there's a big story about the Dodgers, I check Jon Weisman's Dodger Thoughts. He sums up the situation well:

Like Jim Tracy or not, like DePodesta or not, the firing of first one and then the other proves that the McCourt ownership is incompetent.

I have to agree with Jon on that one.

Update: ESPN is reporting that DePodesta is indeed fired. The story mentions a 5 PM news conference, but not the time zone.

Update: Buffalo's Best Blog (eventually) sees the hand of Tommy Lasorda in this. Which once again reminds me of my favorite quote from Fletch.

[Fletch sees a photo of Karlan with Tommy Lasorda]
Fletch: Hey, you and Tommy Lasorda!
Karlan: Yeah.
Fletch: I hate Tommy Lasorda! {punches glass out of picture frame.}
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:46 PM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1)
No Agent
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I thought this was interesting:

Negotiations have at times grown strained and awkward between Epstein and president/CEO Larry Lucchino, a situation that has not been helped by the club not allowing Epstein to use an agent. However, no new snags were believed to have developed yesterday.

What did the Red Sox say, "If you get an agent you can walk?" The whole idea of having someone negotiate for you is that it shields you from the personal things said in the heat of the moment. The agent glosses them over for his client, so if the client does sign, there are no hard feelings. With Theo and Larry being as close as they are, this was the perfect situation for an agent.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Management | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Less Than Glamourous
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I am being chided for leaving Paul Konerko and Johnny Damon off the list of glamorous free agents. Have you looked at Paul Konerko's stats, instead of listening to pundits? Carlos Delgado is a much better baseball player, and there was very little interest in him last year. Konerko is 30 and is coming off his best year, and it wasn't all that great given the level of offense in recent years. On top of that, he's helped by his ballpark, so his numbers a inflated a bit.

If you're problem is first base, it should be easier to solve than by throwing lots of money at Paul Konerko.

Damon is going to be 32 and is banged up. Damon peaked early in his career, age 25-26. He briefly reached that level again at age 30. But if you're looking at Damon, you're looking at a someone who's on the downside of his career. With a career OBA of .353, he doesn't set me on fire. If you look at your team and decide you need someone in center with above average on base skills to put you in the playoff, Damon's a fine one or two year player. But he's certainly not someone to sign long term vs. bringing up a 22 year-old that is likely to improve.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Free Agents | Comments (7) | TrackBack (2)
Narrowing the Field
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Mr. Irrelevant posts more on the latest steroid rumor, eliminating the White Sox from the mix. I have also received this same information from another source. It appears there is substance behind this rumor, as opposed to the 50 players testing positive one we heard earlier this summer.

The Lehigh Valley Yankees Fan Club will devote a segment of their Sunday Radio show to this issue, since a third of the rumored players come from their favorite team. It's a great show no matter the topic.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Cheating | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 28, 2005
Will Leitch Speaks
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Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com interviews Will Leitch of DeadSpin.com on the role of blogs in sports. You can download the podcast at the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | Interviews | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Free Agent Time
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ESPN posts its list of potential free agents. Looks to me like there's slim pickings unless you're interested in a closer. Bengie Molina, Rafael Furcal, Brian Giles, A.J. Burnett and Jason Schmidt seem to be the only glamorous players that might be worth big bucks. This is going to be a market where GMs need to find pieces that fit well with what they have, rather than trying to remake their teams through star signings. Maybe that means will see more trade activity than signing activity this winter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM | Free Agents | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
The Moneyball Club Grows
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It's being reported that the Arizona Diamondbacks are hiring Josh Byrnes to replace Joe Garagiola Jr. as general manager. Byrnes currently is assistant GM to Theo Epstein in Boston.

The evolution of the baseball GM continues. We're seeing a version of mammals replacing dinosaurs. At first, there was one tucked in a corner. Then a couple scurrying about. Now the the old style GMs are quickly having their niche filled by young executives schooled in taking advantage of the information explosion. Sure, some dinosaurs will survive for a while, but it's only a matter of time before they're the ones hiding in the corner.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Cashman In Charge
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Brian Cashman not only negotiated himself a big contract, he also negotiated himself a power boost:

During negotiations, Cashman said, he wrote out a "document of philosophy" explaining how he believes the chain of command should be and got full agreement from those above him, including team president Randy Levine, chief operating officer Lonn Trost, general partner (and Steinbrenner's son-in-law) Steve Swindal and, finally, The Boss himself. Without that assurance, Cashman said, he was willing to walk away.

"I'm not naive," Cashman said in a press conference at the Stadium. "I do know I'll be challenged with splintering (factions). ... Am I going to bat 1.000 on this? I think it's safe to say the answer to that is no. ... But I think this is a system that will work."

There is no contract language describing the restructuring, Cashman said, and no "out clause" for him to fall back on if things should revert back to the way they were. But Cashman, who had not spoken publicly since the Yanks were eliminated from the playoffs on Oct. 10, decided he has faith in what has been discussed - most of his negotiations were with Swindal - and opted to stay with the club he's been a part of since 1986, when he was an intern.

"There's no contractual way I can (guarantee) it," Swindal said. "But I'm here (in Florida), and I think everyone here wants to make this work."

I'm impressed. The Yankees must really like the work Brian does if they're willing to commit to him being the focal point of baseball decisions. It's possible Tony Womack had a lot to do with that:

New York-based executives frequently pointed this season to Tony Womack as the perfect example of a Tampa-faction wish gone awry. In the future, Cashman said, everything should be "filtered" through him. It's not that he doesn't want to hear ideas - he does - but he doesn't want to have to constantly publicly defend moves that he had little to do with, either.

Cashman now has the money, the power and the budget. I'm excited to see what he can do, but he'll also have no excuses if he fails.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 AM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (1)
October 27, 2005
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed last night's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM | Podcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Blog
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Sox1Fan has a lengthy post on his feelings about the GM negotiations.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Drug Rumors
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Mr. Irrelevant alerted me to rumors of an AL Playoff outfielder testing positive for steroids. The story starts at Deadspin, and Will Carrol confirmed it on Sports Bloggers Live:

Carroll: "I really can't talk about it right now. It should be coming out within the next two weeks."

SBL: "Is this a name we're actually going to care about?"

Carroll: "Yes."

SBL: "Is it a World Series champion?"

Carroll: "I really can't talk about it."

SBL: "I would hope not, because that might turn those White Sox black... Will, cough once if he's on the White Sox... Cough twice if it's Gary Sheffield."

Carroll: "I was involved in the appeals process so I can't comment at all."

So we know one of a dozen outfielders on one of the AL playoffs teams is in trouble. Which one?

First of all, we probably don't care about Aaron Rowand. That leaves eleven. I doubt it's Bernie Williams given his poor offensive year overall. Ten left.

Podsednik? He did have two post-season home runs after none during the regular season. Sheffield had injury trouble toward the end of the season. Maybe he needed a boost.

Vlad? Maybe the distraction of the appeal was responsible for his post-season performance. He sure didn't hit like a player on steroids. In a way, I hope it is Guerrero, because it will be another nail in the coffin of steroid use actually making a difference.

My money, however, would be on Steve Finley. I thought Finley was through after the 1998 season. He put together back-to-back years of low OBAs. He was 33, and it's not at all unusual for players to disappear from the majors at that age. But instead, he goes to Arizona, starts getting on base again, and starts hitting home runs like he never did before. He also played a long time with Ken Caminiti. Maybe, with Steve's career falling apart, he decided to seek some advice from his long time Astros/Padres teammate. It would explain a lot. Maybe he went off them this year as the drug policy got serious, but needed the extra boost when he struggled. I guess we'll know in a week or so if this speculation is correct.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:59 PM | Cheating | Comments (43) | TrackBack (3)
More On Theo
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One thing working in the Red Sox advantage in these negotiations is that it should be pretty easy to find a replacement for the young GM if he decides to leave. I would imagine the line for the job will be longer than the queue for opening day Green Monster seats. There must be a few Harvard grads with combined MBA and law degrees that would love to run the Red Sox.

If they really want to save money, I'd be happy to do the job for just half a million a year. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:46 PM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
The Theo Saga
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As the Yankees wind up securing Brian Cashman for three more years, things seem to be falling apart in the hallowed halls of Red Sox Nation.

Theo could be gone soon, Red Sox followers. It may be just a matter of time now. Negotiations between Epstein and club president Larry Lucchino long ago became personal, so Lucchino and friends have launched into spin control, full speed ahead. Young Theo Epstein, it seems, has been ousted from the circle of trust as if he were a hardball embodiment of the unraveling Gaylord Focker. The truth? Epstein is outgrowing the Red Sox, though maybe he is just outgrowing Lucchino. It was bound to happen sooner or later. Epstein is young and smart and likable, and it was only a matter of time before he recognized he could be a lot more in life than just another sheep in the great Lucchino's flock.

It seems Lucchino has a spin machine at his disposal as well:

That said, some things need to be made clear. The first is that the media is a very dirty business; on some level, we are all compromised. The second, as one longtime observer once pointed out, is that Lucchino is a political animal. The Globe owns the Red Sox which means the Red Sox own the Globe, which is not a criticism as much as it is a statement of fact. The same is true of WEEI, or at least parts of it, which is currently in negotiations for Red Sox broadcast rights and compensates Lucchino for a weekly radio segment. So, for an assortment of reasons, the two most powerful media outlets in New England are not about to challenge the words or methods of Lucchino and the Red Sox. (Not really.) And that is OK so long as we recognize there are conflicts of interest everywhere now and the truth will be distorted as a result of it. That is why, as much as ever, we should hope this remains a two-newspaper town.

Yes, thank goodness for competition.

But back to the main story. Brian Cashman is more willing to work for George Steinbrenner than Theo Epstein is willing to work for Larry Lucchino. That has to hurt the feelings of Red Sox fans. As my dear friend at Soxaholix points out:

No way, instead we've got Steinbrennah, of all friggin' people George Steinbrennah saying we'll rue the effin' day Lucchino was hired.

Yes, it's a revelation to find out that the evil emperor was under your nose all along!

Things can go one of two ways. The Red Sox ante up and pay Theo to tolerate Lucchino, or some other club gets a real good GM. I agree with the Soxaholix that I'd rather have Theo than Larry. Red Sox Nation is pretty strong. If you agree now's the chance to make your voice heard.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:16 PM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Blaming the Bats
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Fran Blinebury puts the blame for the Astros loss clearly on the shoulders of the hitters:

"We can't hang our heads at what happened out there," said Everett, who finished the Series 1-for-15 (.067). "It's not like we rolled over in the Series. The breaks just didn't go our way."

But the Astros certainly didn't help themselves, either. From the time Chicago used its five-run explosion in the fifth inning of Game 3 to take a 5-4 lead, the Astros left 18 men on base through the end of the Series. Twice they had the bases loaded — once in Game 3 and once in Game 4 — and couldn't score.

"You've got to give those guys in the other clubhouse some of the credit," Everett said. "They had some pitchers come in there and do the job. They made pitches when they had to. We just didn't get the job done. Sometimes that's just baseball."

All season long, the Astros good stretches were tied to Berkman hitting, and their bad stretches tied to his injuries or cold spells. Lance hit fine in the series, but the rest of the team tanked. Berkman couldn't carry the Astros by himself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:00 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Guillen Credits His Players
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Ozzie says all the right things in victory:

So Guillen was asked Wednesday what he did this season that made a difference.

''Nothing,'' he said, moments after Juan Uribe charged an Orlando Palmeiro bouncer over the mound and threw to first base for the final out of the World Series. ''I think the players, I have a great communication with them. I do a lot of bad things with my players. They have to deal with all the questions and answers of Ozzie Guillen.

''It was a tough season for them, too. They trust me and I trust them. We're here together. We do this for one reason, that's to win or lose together. And [general manager Ken Williams] give me the best. I'm not saying this because we win; I'm saying it because I mean it. You can talk to others, and they'll say the same thing. Kenny gave me the best guys to fight for me and this team. And they stick together and the unity of this team, it was great. That's why we always feel we can win this game because we are all pulling at the same time.''

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox Fans Celebrate
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Fans of the White Sox appeared to have a good time last night:

When the Sox brought it home, the crowd went ballistic. Champagne poured in the back room as men kissed men, women kissed women, people danced on tables and everyone hugged everyone.

Talk about a coming out party!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Best Thing About Winning
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It's a good thing the White Sox won the World Series. I don't think I could have taken the sight of 25 dead players on the field as the Astros celebrated. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 AM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Jermajesty!
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Jermaine Dye wins the World Series MVP. He hit .438 with a .526 OBA and a .688 slugging percentage. He also picked up the series winning RBI. Congratulations to Jermaine!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Celebration
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Jim and Ed send a picture of the celebration from the Juice Box.

Final.jpg

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:09 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox World Champions
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The White Sox win game four 1-0 to sweep the Astros and give Chicago it's first World Championship in 88 seasons. Juan Uribe made three great plays in that game, two on slow rollers and one going into the stands to catch a foul ball.

The Sox did it their way. Four close games, two decided by one run. The White Sox outscored the Astros by just six runs over the four games. Houston had plenty of chances, but the White Sox pitchers always found a way to get out of the jam.

A great season, a great post season, and a great championship for the South Siders. They held off the Indians, destroyed the Red Sox, pounded the Angels, and squeaked out a sweep in the finals. Congratulations to Ozzie Guillen and the whole Chicago White Sox organization!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 AM | World Series | Comments (13) | TrackBack (1)
October 26, 2005
Bottom of the Ninth
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Do or die time for the Astros. Lane leads off the ninth.

Update: Bloop! Lane drops one into center. Rowand can't catch up to it. The Astros have the leadoff man on again.

Update: Ausmus bunts. I don't agree. Ausmus is one of the better hitters on this team. Give him a chance. Lane is at second with one out.

Update: Burke pinch hits for Everett.

Update: What a catch by Uribe going into the stands for a foul pop! Shades of Derek Jeter. The Astros are down to their last out!

Update: Palmeiro pinch hits.

Update: The count is 1-2 on Orlando.

Update: Uribe makes another great play on a slow roller for the third out. White Sox are World Champions!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:51 PM | World Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Lidge is stil in to pitch the ninth.

Update: Pierzynski doubles leading off the ninth. The Astros need to get Lidge out of there.

Update: Roward strikes out on a foul bunt. Guillen's trying to throw away the insurance run.

Update: Crede strikes out. Maybe I was too hard on Lidge. :(

Update: Lidge gets out of it as Uribe grounds out to third. Jenks is coming in to get what he hopes are the final three outs of the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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Politte relieves Garcia.

Update: Biggio swings at a high pitch and pops it foul. Neither Pierzynski nor Crede get to it, and Biggio is given another life.

Update: No harm, no foul as Biggio grounds out to short.

Update: Taveras gets hit on the hand. The Astros have the tying run on first with one out.

Update: Politte throws a wild pitch, and Taveras is at second.

Update: They're issuing the IBB to Berkman. Politte is having trouble throwing the ball to the catcher, but manages not to toss a wild pitch. Once again, Morgan Ensberg has a chance to be the hero.

Update: Ensberg gets a good 2-0 pitch, but flies out to right center. Taveras moves up to third. Cotts is called in from the bullpen to face Lamb. Politte's wildness could have resulted in a tie game at this point.

Update: You would think the law of averages would get the Astros a hit here. :-)

Update: Vizcaino is pinch hitting.

Update: Vizcaino breaks his bat and grounds the ball slowly to short. Batting right handed, however, it's an extra step to first and Uribe throws Vizcaino out to end the eighth. The White Sox are three outs away from ending 88 years of nothing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Eighth
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Lidge on to pitch, Willie Harris on to pinch hit.

Update: Harris singles off Lidge.

Update: Podseknik sacrifices successfully tonight. Harris moves to second with one out.

Update: Interesting move, Everett is pinch hitting for Iguchi. He grounds to second, moving Harris to third with two out.

Update: Dye does it! His third hit of the game is a ground single up the middle to plate Harris and give the White Sox a 1-0 lead.

Update: Lidge strikes out Konerko, just one batter too late. Garcia is now in line for the win.

Dye moves into the pole position for World Series MVP. He's batting .438 in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bagwell in the Seventh
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With two outs in the seventh, Bagwell pinch hits for Backe.

Update: Bagwell grounds out to second to end the seventh. With Garica due up, we've seen the last of both starters. Both go seven, both strike out seven. Backe allows just five hits and no walks, while Garica gives up four hits and three walks. Both deserve the win tonight. Garcia may still get it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rowand, Rowand, Rowand
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Rowand lines a two out single into center. Crede up in the seventh.

Update: Crede doubles off the wall in left. Rowand gets to third but is held there. Do you pitch to Uribe, or walk him and force a pinch hitter?

Update: A replay shows Rowand slowed up approaching second. Did he forget how many outs there were? Or did he go for Berkman's decoy?

Update: Backe gets ahead of Uribe 1-2.

Update: Backe strikes out Uribe swinging! What a great game by the right hander! He's due up third in the bottom of the 7th. At 100 pitches, my guess is he'll be out of the game.

He does his job and then some tonight. Can the Astros offense do theirs?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Taveras Singles
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Taveras gets a one out single. Maybe the Astros will have better luck with the second batter of the inning reaching.

Update: By the way, I'll take back what I said in the first. This game could easily be decided 1-0.

Update: Berkman walks for the second time. Ensberg gets another chance to be the hero.

Update: Baseball Musings correspondent Jim Storer reports that it's real loud at the Juice Box tonight.

Update: The runners go on a 3-2 pitch. Ensberg swings and misses, but Pierzynski can't find the handle. The Astros have runners on 2nd and 3rd with two out and Lamb up.

Update: After Garcia falls behind Lamb, the Sox issue the intentional walk. Bases loaded for Lane.

Update: Lane falls behind 0-2.

Update: After three foul balls, Garcia throws one in the dirt that Pierzynski blocks.

Update: After another foul, Garcia gets Lane swinging on a high pitch. Garcia seems to find his strikeout pitch with men on base.

Update: Garcia is up to 95 pitches. We might not see much more of him in this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bare Hand Pickup
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Adam Everett makes a great play on a slow roller to short. It gets by Backe, Everett charges and makes the third baseman play of bare-handing and throwing to first for the out. Graig Nettles would be proud.

Update: Backe strikes out Dye for another 1-2-3 inning. Brandon has six strikeouts through six innings, and 55 of his 81 pitches thrown have gone for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ausmus On
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Brad Ausmus gets a leadoff single to center in the bottom of the fifth. That's four of five leadoff batters on for the Astros.

Update: The perils of the hit and run with a catcher at first. Everett pulls the ball hard to third, and Crede starts the double play.

Update: Backe grounds out to third to end the fifth. The fourth starters are throwing the pitching duel we expected to see all through this series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Back-K
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Backe strikes out the first two batters in the fifth. If he gets Garcia on strikes he'll tie a World Series record with six consecutive Ks.

Update: Garcia grounds out to third. Backe will take it as he's shutout the White Sox through five innings, throwing just 69 pitches. If the Astros are going on in this series, the bullpen can use a break.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Walking Man
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The Astros get the leadoff man on for the third inning as Berkman draws the first walk of the game in the bottom of the fourth. Ball four looked so much like a strike that Berkman didn't start for first right away.

Update: Ensberg strikes out swinging. He's now batting .125 for the series.

Update: Lamb grounds to Iguchi, who forces Berkman at second on a nice play.

Update: Lane forces Lamb, the game goes to the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Dye On
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Jermaine Dye gets his second hit of the night, a single to left to start the fourth inning.

Update: Dye is now batting .429 for the series and has an OBA of .529.

Update: Backe gets a big K, getting Konerko to swing and miss at strike three.

Update: Backe finds his K zone here in the fourth as he strikes out Pierzynski on a pitch in the dirt. Two out, Dye still at first.

Update: Rowand strikes out swinging on a low pitch. Backe appears to be getting stronger as the game progresses.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
End of Three
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Garcia gets his first 1-2-3 inning. He's struck out four through three innings, a big reason the Astros haven't driven in a runner from second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two Out Triple
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Podsednik is running on the Houston outfielders. Podsednik gets a two out hit to the same place as Dye, but stretches it into a triple. The play was close, however, and it probably wasn't a good percentage move.

Update: Iguchi grounds out to end the inning. Backe is pitching well through three, and he's only thrown 17 pitches over the last two innings after throwing 21 in the first. All good signs for the righty.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rack of Lamb
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Mike Lamb lines one off the right field wall for a double. Again, the Astros get the leadoff batter on, and he's in scoring position. Can they get the second hit here in the bottom of the second?

Update: Lane strikes out. That's the second strike out tonight with a man at second. The Astros should think about choking up with two strikes to put the ball in play.

Update: Ausmus strikes out looking.

Update: Everett grounds out to third to end the inning. The Astros are 0 for 5 with men in scoring position with three K and two ground outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Line Backe
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Pierzynski lines a ball back at Backe, who knocks it down and makes the play. It didn't look like it was hit that hard to me, but the broadcasters think it was.

Update: Backe retires the side 1-2-3 in the second. He's gotten through the first 30 pitches with only one hit. That's a good sign for the Astros.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Biggio sets the table with a lead off single in the bottom of the first.

Update: Taveras bunts badly again. Crede had time to get Biggio at second, but goes to first for the sure out. I can't complain about that, but it looked pretty sure at second base.

Update: Why play for one run here? Does Garner reall think that Backe can beat Garcia 1-0 or 2-1? I would guess the White Sox can score some runs off Brandon.

Update: Ensberg taps one down the first base line. Garcia throws him out to end the inning. Ensberg actually ran in the box down the foul line to give Garcia a clear throw!

Garcia strikes out Berkman swinging for the second out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox-Astros Underway
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Podsednik works the count to 3-2 then flies out to deep left. Game 4 is underway.

Update: Iguchi flies out to right on a half swing.

Update: Backe falls behind Dye 3-1 and Jermaine shoots one up the right center gap for a two out double.

Update: Backe runs the count full on Konerko and makes a nice play as Paul hits one back to the pitcher for the third out. Backe threw 21 pitches. Brandon won't go deep in games until he can learn to get batters out with fewer pitchers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Latin All-Stars
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They're introducing the Latin All-Star team before the game. Edgar Martinez gets the vote at third base. It's a stretch, but he deserves to be on the team. They should have had a slot for designated hitters. It's tough to come up with another one, however. A-Rod is the shortstop, but by the end of his career he'll probably be the first baseman. Bobby Bonilla, Aramis Ramirez, Eric Chavez and Aurelio Rodriguez also come to mind.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM | All-Time Greats | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Early Edition
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The Baseball Crank notes an early version of last night's game story that lamented Geoff Blum not getting garbage time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM | News Media | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up at the top of the hour on TSPRadio. Stop by the TPS chat room and leave a message or question!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Aptly Named Brian Cashman
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Someone thinks Cashman is a good GM:

New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has been offered a three-year contract worth more than $5 million, and the team hopes he will decide in the next few days to stay.

...

The New York Post reported on Wednesday that Cashman will return and is contemplating two offers: four years for $8.8 million; the other for three years at $5.6 million.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 7 PM EDT. Note that we're on an hour earlier than usual so as not to interfere with the baseball game. Come join me for a pre-game rundown!

You can also call in at 888-985-0555 and leave a question for the show, or stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:30 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's cliche night as the Houston Astros face elimination. Brandon Backe's against the wall tonight, and there's no tomorrow unless the game goes over 4 1/2 hours again.

The White Sox send Freddy Garcia to the mound to try to clinch their first World Championship since 1917, and the White Sox couldn't ask for a better road warrior. His 10 road victories were tied for second in the American League. His 3.40 road ERA was 8th in the AL. He allowed nearly half as many home runs away from US Cellular than in his home park in more innings on the road. The White Sox should have every confidence in Garcia to get the job done tonight.

The clue to how Backe will do comes early in the game. Opponents batted .339 against Brandon during his first 30 pitches, 58 for 171. The rest of the way they batted .245. If Backe gets through the second inning unscathed, he should be okay.

Unfortunately, Brandon doesn't go deep in games, and the bullpen is a little thin after last night. Of course, Wheeler, Qualls and Lidge have all winter to recover if they lose.

It's been a great series so far. The Astros have had plenty of chances to score runs. Eventually, some of those batted balls are going to find holes. The question is will eventually come soon enough?

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | World Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Chicago Jubilation
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Jay Mariotti celebrates Geoff Blum:

Geoff Blum. Who else would end Bud Selig's slumber party, the longest game in World Series history, but a former Houston Astro who hasn't been heard from in weeks? Geoff Blum is one of the ''Group 4'' guys, the reserves who aren't prioritized in batting practice. But the other day, Blum and the Group 4 guys had something to say to Ozzie Guillen.

"We know this is our time. We were even saying to him on the bus: 'You can't hide Group 4 anymore,''' Blum said. "We've mostly been hiding out in the cage and in the clubhouse, killing the [food] spread. The other night, we got lobster and crab legs.''

When he returns to Chicago, Blum can eat for free in any White Sox-friendly place for the rest of his life. In the top of the 14th inning, well into the fifth hour, he lined a solo home run into the right-field seats at Minute Maid Park. If Soxdom can wait 88 years, I assume you can wait through a five-hour, 41-minute victory, assuming it leads to the parade and the sirens. And I think it's safe to assume it will.

And the fact that the White Sox are bulldozing their way through the playoffs:

Unless this is the all-time sports tease, the Sox are going to complete the dream. That's what is most amazing about this story: Not once in the playoffs have they given their fans any reason to doubt them or feel the familiar Chicago queasiness. The Sox are defying every phobia known to the local sports scene. Is it actually possible they will buzzcut through the playoffs with only one loss, in what would be one of the all-time October plunderings? If they could plaster Oswalt for five runs and eight hits and rattle him for five walks and a hit batsman -- when he had allowed only two runs in his previous 14 innings and was brilliant the last three months -- what are they about to do to someone named Brandon Backe tonight? Even if Backe were to beat them, Roger Clemens is no certainty to pitch Game 5 with his sore hammy.

The White Sox and their fans are ready to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
What are the Odds
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A 3-0 series lead is golden:

After five hours and 41 minutes, after 17 pitchers combined to throw 482 pitches, the White Sox became the 22nd team to win the first three games of the Series. The first 21 teams to get that kind of head start went on to win the Series. Eighteen of those Series ended in sweeps, thus reducing the Astros to trying to reinvent themselves as idiots, Boston Red Sox-style.

One would figure that a team up 3-0 would go to five games about 1/2 the time. But given the propensity of sweeps after a 3-0 start, I wonder if this start isn't telling us something about the superiority of the sweeper. That in these cases, the team with the big lead is really the better team. The probability of evenly matched teams only going to a fifth game three times in 21 tries is 0.0007. It may be a demoralizing effect of losing three in a row, but teams get swept way too often.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Garner Blasts Bats
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Phil Garner is not a happy camper:

"We didn't hit the ball good except for Jason (Lane). I'm really ticked off. They had some pretty good at-bats. They're hammering our mistakes and fouling off our good pitches. On the flip side, we're doing just the opposite."

Except, of course, for the hammering part.

"It's embarrassing," Garner continued, "to play like this (in) our hometown. We're not hitting the ball at all. We're not putting the ball in play, except for Jason. We couldn't push anybody across when we had the top of our lineup up.

"We had some momentum, some chances, but we didn't even hit the ball hard. I don't know how we stayed in the ball game as long as we did."

It's possible the White Sox wildness kept them off balance in the late innings. Just when you thought a Chicago pitcher couldn't find the plate, he'd come back with a good pitch and get an out.

Of course, the big problem is that outside of Berkman and Ensberg, there aren't a lot of good hitters on the Astros. That helps even wild pitchers get out of jams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox Win!
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Adam Everett pops out to Uribe to end the game and give the White Sox a 7-5 victory. It also gives the White Sox a 3-0 lead in the series, which until last year was an insurmountable edge.

The White Sox have now won three games started by the Astros big three starters. Roy Oswalt had one bad inning, but didn't pitch well overall. He didn't have his good control, and that caught up to him in the fifth inning as he blew a 4-0 lead. How many games this season did a Houston starter wish he had four runs?

The White Sox get another unlikely hero in Geoff Blum. He started the season with San Diego, but ends it with the better playoff team. He gets to win a game with his first post season at bat.

The Astros hitters could not take advantage of the wildness of the White Sox bullpen. They drew a ton of walks, but when they got a pitch to hit they couldn't convert them to hits. This was the game that got away.

Good night! Game four later today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:20 AM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 14th
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Marte continues to pitch, starting the inning striking out Ensberg on three pitches.

Update: Palmeiro walks with one out to bring the tying run to the plate.

Update: Lane pops out to second. Ausmus is up.

Update: Oops. Ausmus grounds to short, but Uribe bobbles the ball and all hands are safe. The Astros have 1st and 3rd with two outs, and Mark Buehrle is being called from the bullpen.

Update: It's up to Adam Everett.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:11 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 14th
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Ezequiel Astacio starts the 14th for the Astros and Dye singles to right to greet the reliever.

Update: Konerko smashes the first pitch to Ensberg and starts a 5-4-3 double play. Along with Ausmus, that's one of the top defensive plays of the game.

It seems to me that Konerko is swinging very early tonight, but I'd have to review the play-by-play to be sure.

Blum, in at second base in a double switch, homers to right to give the White Sox a 6-5 lead!

Update: That was Blum's first post-season at bat. Chicago's power continues to be the driving force for them in this series.

Update: Rowand beats out an infield hit to third.

Update: Crede gets an infield hit to third. Ensberg let it roll and it hit third base.

Buehrle is warming up in the bullpen for Chicago. Will he come on for the save?

Update: Astacio walks Uribe. Widger up with the bases loaded.

Update: Astacio walks Widger. No excuse for that. The White Sox lead 7-5.

Update: Garner calls for Wandy Rodriguez one batter too late. He'll try to get out of the inning with the bases loaded and two out.

Update: Podsednik strikes out to end the inning. The Astros have three outs to get two runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 AM | World Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 13th
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Marte is in to pitch, Vizcaino in to pinch hit. Jose's worked the count to 3-2.

Update: Vizcaino fouls off a couple of pitches, then draws another walk. The Astros need a hit.

Update: The White Sox pen has walked 9, hit one batter, but has only allowed one hit so far in five innings.

Update: Biggio is caught looking at a pitch on the inside corner. Taveras is up.

Update: Marte gets Taveras looking. Lance Berkman is up with two out and a man on first.

Update: Berkman grounds to shortstop for a force play. On to the 14th!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 AM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Long Games in Houston
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This just became the longest World Series game time wise. If they can go 15, it will be the longest game in both time and innings. The Astros set the record for post season innings with their 18 frames against the Atlanta in the LDS, and once played a 16 inning game against the Mets in 1986. Not bad for a city that hasn't seen that many playoff games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:36 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 13th
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Qualls comes out for the 13th.

Update: Qualls walks Widger to start the 13th.

Update: Ausmus makes the play of the game. Podsednik bunts at the plate, Ausmus grabs the ball with a bare hand, then throws to second to start a double play. Once again, the small ball attempt doesn't work.

Update: Iguchi strikes out swinging to end the inning. Houston gets another chance to win the game with a run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:28 AM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 12th
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It's an easy inning for Chad Qualls, retiring the side in order. Qualls goes two inning allowing a hit and a walk. We'll see if the offense can get him a win in the bottom of the inning.

Update: Jenks equals the feat in the bottom of the inning, striking out two. The Astros didn't get to the pitcher's spot, so Qualls can come out for the 13th. Will that be an unlucky inning for one of the teams?

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:17 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eleventh
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Bobby Jenks comes on in the 11th to face Biggio, Taveras and Berkman.

Update: Jenks strikes out Biggio. Craig had three bad swings in that at bat, despite working the count to 3-2.

Update: A big curve ball hits Taveras on the top of the helmet. Willy takes first base.

Update: Jenks gets ahead of Berkman, but loses him on a 3-2 count. The walk puts runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. The Astros are getting a lot of walks from the White Sox pen, but they need a hit to bring the runners around.

Update: On a 3-2 pitch, Ensberg flies out to the shortstop Uribe in short left near the line. Palmeiro is up.

Update: Palmeiro grounds back to Jenks. There will be at least a dozen innings tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:55 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Eleventh
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Chad Qualls starts the 11th for the Astros.

Update: Qualls thought he had Podsednik struck out, and Scott takes advantage of the ball call to single leading off the 11th.

Update: The Astros pitch out, Podsednik is going, but Ausmus throws to the third base side of the bag and Scott is safe at second.

Update: Iguchi flies to right. Lane overthrows third on the Podsednik bluff, but Scott can't move up.

Update: Qualls strikes out Dye. They'll walk Konerko to pitch to Timo Perez, the pinch hitter. Jenks is warming in the pen.

Update: Perez grounds out to first. It's tied going to the bottom of the 11th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:40 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Tenth
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It's Orlando vs. Orlando as Palmeiro pinch hits against El Duque.

Update: Palmeiro walks to start the 10th. It appears that Hernandez is injured, and Vizcaino comes on in relief.

Update: Jason Lane steps up and pops up the first pitch to Widger in foul territory. Ausmus up.

Update: Ausmus flies to center on a hit and run.

Update: Everett walks on a 3-2 pitch to put the winning run in scoring position. With El Duque out, the White Sox bullpen is a bit depleted.

Burke gets a chance to be the hero in extra innings again.

Update: This one goes to 11 as Burke grounds back to the pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Tenth
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Lidge gets a grounder and two strikeouts to retire the side in order in the tenth. Brad is due to lead off the bottom of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:20 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 25, 2005
Bottom of the Ninth
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Orlando Hernandez takes over for Chicago in the bottom of the ninth. I suspect El Duque is on for the duration.

Widger is catching on the double switch.

Everett pops out to start the inning.

Update: Burke walks on four pitches to bring up the top of the order.

Update: Burke gets to second on an errant pickoff throw. El Duque gets the throwing error. Burke steals third on the next pitch. He's there with one out!

Update: Biggio walks on four pitches. It appears the layoff hasn't been good for Hernandez. He's wild.

Update: Orlando continues to miss high.

Update: Taveras strikes out. It's up to Berkman with two outs.

Update: They're pitching to Berkman. He gets ahead 1-0.

Update: After Hernandez goes 2-0 on Lance, they intentionally walk the lefty. Hernandez will face Morgan Ensberg with the bases loaded and two out.

Update: Ensberg misses the first pitch, then fouls the second. He's down 0-2.

Update: Morgan strikes out on a 2-2 pitch. We're going to extra innings! Break out the coffee!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Wheeler stays in to pitch the ninth.

Update: Everett makes a nice play on a slow roller to throw out Dye at first.

Update: Wheeler has a pitch get away and hits Konerko. Gallo is coming in to face Pierzynski with a runner on first.

Update: Pierzynski grounds out slowly to second, advancing the runner. Garner makes the double switch, bringing in Burke and Lidge. Rowand is due up.

Update: Lidge climbs off the ledge and strikes out Rowand to end the inning. The Astros can make their own ninth inning magic now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ensberg Walks
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Politte comes in to start the 8th. He gets the first two batters, including a strike out of Berkman, but walks Ensberg and Cotts is coming in to face Lamb. I suspect we'll see Burke pinch hit.

Update: Lamb stays in to face Cotts.

Update: Cotts is a reverse lefty. Good call by Garner as Lamb walks.

Update: Brunlett pinch runs for Lamb.

Update: Hermanson is coming in to face Lane.

Update: Lane rips the ball down the left field line to score Ensberg and tie the game. The double puts men at 2nd and 3rd with two outs. What started as a good inning for the Sox pen is now a blown save.

Update: A nice pitch on the inside corner strikes out Ausmus looking. The White Sox will bat in the top of the ninth tied at five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Garland Gone
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Carl Everett bats for Garland in the top of the 8th. Garland's last three innings were much better than his first four, as he held the White Sox 1-run lead for three innings.

Update: Everett singles.

Update: Okay, this is totally unfair. Steve Perry of Journey is the White Sox good luck charm. If he can be at the game, why can't the Astros have the roof closed? :-)

Update: Willie Harris pinch runs and steals second. Podsednik flies out to left for the second out.

Update: Iguchi grounds to third to end the inning. Wheeler does his job and keeps the Astros close. Houston has six outs to tie the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tying Run On
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Ausmus walks to start the bottom of the seventh. Everett and a pinch hitter follow.

Update: Everett sacrifices. It wasn't too far in front of the plate, but A.J. took the sure out at first. That brings Bagwell to the plate to pinch hit for Springer.

Update: Once again I have to question the bunt. Garland is behind Bagwell 2-0, and was behind Everett 1-0. Why not give the pitcher a chance to be wild and walk the bases loaded?

Update: Bagwell pops up a 3-2 pitch to the mound, where Konerko fields the ball. It's up to Biggio.

Update: Great pitching to Biggio. Garland threw him four straight change ups, then caught him looking with a fast ball down the middle. The White Sox still lead 5-4 after seven.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Konerko Walks
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Oswalt comes out for the seventh but walks Konerko to start the inning. That's five walks for Oswalt in the game. That matches his high for the year, done against Cincinnati in April and Flordia in May. He's out of the game and Springer is in.

Update: Pierzynski pops out foul for the first out.

Update: Springer strikes out Aaron Rowand. Two down.

Update: Crede grounds out to second. Springer gets the job done.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Garland Settles Down
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Garland gets his second 1-2-3 inning in a row. After allowing four runs in the first four innings, he's been perfect since the White Sox gave him the lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Hop
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Oswalt was close to a 1-2-3 sixth, but a bad hop goes off Ensberg's wrist and puts Iguchi on first. We'll see if Chicago can take advantage of the error.

Update: No harm to Houston as Dye flies out to center. Jim Storer reports the crowd is much quieter now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Garland Does His Job
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Garland shuts down the Astros in the fifth, getting the side 1-2-3 to preserve the 5-4 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Great Pitching?
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So far, the great pitching duels haven't emerged. The White Sox got to both Clemens and Oswalt, as well as Qualls and Lidge. Garland's been less than stellar, and Buehrle wasn't exactly unhittable. So sit back and enjoy the offense!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Crede Clearwaller Revial
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Crede answers Lane's lead off home run with one of his own.

Fox seems to believe they have evidence that Lane's shot did not hit on the correct side of the yellow line, and wasn't a home run. Not much you can do about it now, and again, in real time, it looked gone to me.

Uribe singles and Garland stays in to bunt.

Update: Garland can't lay down a bunt and strikes out swinging.

Update: Podsednik singles through the right side hole. The White Sox hitters are getting the measure of Oswalt.

Update: The White Sox are mounting a comeback as Iguchi singles up the middle to drive in the White Sox second run.

Update: Dye bloops a 3-2 pitching into center for a single. The runners were going, so it's a 4-3 game with runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. Maybe the White Sox should have pinch hit for Garland, given that everyone is getting hits.

Update: Konerko swings early and flies out to center.

Update: Pierzynski gets a pitch to hit this time and drives it to deep center field for a double. He drives in two and Chicago leads 5-4.

Update: Oswalt issues his fourth walk of the night, this time to Rowand. He walked just 48 during the regular season.

Update: Crede is hit by the pitch. That's the fifth batter given a free pass this game. I haven't seen any action in the Houston bullpen.

Update: Springer is warming up.

Update: Uribe flies out to right to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Lane and the Line
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Jason Lane hits the wall in left center, but it's above he yellow line for an Astros home run. The lead is 4-0 in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: No other damage in the inning. Only two of the four runs scored against Garland are earned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Wildness
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For the second time this evening, Oswalt walks Pierzynski. A.J. walked just 23 times during the regular season.

Update: Rowand grounds to third and Ensberg makes a nice play to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Broken Bat Hit
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Adam Everett starts the third inning with a broken bat single to shortstop.

Update: Good call by Guillen, pitching out on a hit and run. Uribe, however, hits Everett with the throw to first allowing Adam to regain first base. It's a throwing error on the White Sox shortstop.

Update: The Astros take off the hit and run and sacrifice Everett to second. That brings up Biggio, who singles in the run. It's 2-0 Houston. This time, a defensive lapse costs the White Sox.

Update: Taveras strikes out swinging for the 2nd out of the inning.

Update: Berkman singles, his second hit of the night to put runners at 1st and 3rd.

Update: Ensberg singles, and it looks like the Astros have Garland measured. Houston leads 3-0.

Update: Lamb strikes out to end the inning. The Astros did in this inning what the White Sox have been doing all post season, taking advantage of an opponent miscue.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Garland's At Bat
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Garland, who doesn't strike out much for a pitcher, is caught looking to start the third inning.

Update: An easy third for Roy as Podsednik and Iguchi ground out to end the inning. Oswalt gets the side on just eight pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Garland Wide of the Plate
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Garland walks Lane but Ausmus immediately grounds into a double play to end the inning. After two it's still 1-0 Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wild Roy
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Oswalt gives up a double to Konerko and a walk to Pierzynski to start the second. It's the seventh walk Oswalt allowed in the post season, after giving up just 48 in the regular season.

Rowand lines to shortstop, doubling off Konerko, making up for the free pass.

Update: Oswalt walks Crede. Joe only walked 25 times in the regular season.

Update: Uribe pops up first to end the inning. Oswalt is walking 3.1 per 9 in the post season. He walked 1.8 per nine during the regular season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Noise Report
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Jim and Ed just gave me a noise report. Jim says it's very loud, and he can't imagine how loud it would be if the roof was closed. He says he can't hear himself think. Ed was in Chicago and believes Minute Maid, even with the roof open, is louder.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Craig Biggio drives a 3-1 pitch into the left center gap to lead off the Houston first with a double.

Update: The Astros waste an out as they have Taveras bunt and he pops out. Taveras is one of the worst sacrifice bunters I've seen. He's always trying to drag the ball. If you're going to sacrifice, do it properly.

Update: Berkman lines a ball the other way, singling near the line in left. Biggio scores to give the Astros an early 1-0 lead.

Update: Ensberg hits into a double play to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox-Astros Underway
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Oswalt starts off by catching Podsednik looking with a slow curve. Scott was just frozen.

Update: Iguchi goes the other way, grounding a single in the hole between first and second.

Update: Dye hits the ball up the middle, but hits into a 6-3 double play. It's the Astros turn to bat in the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Old Glory
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Here's a great view of the flag from Jim and Ed's seats:

MMFlag.jpg

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Roberto Smoltz
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John Smoltz wins the Roberto Clemente Award. Congratulations to the Braves pitcher!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Correspondent
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Jim Storer is at the game tonight and I hope I'll be getting some information on the game from my good friend. He sends this picture from his seats:

ViewFromJimsSeats.jpg

Update: I'm told to credit Ed Vescovi for the picture. Without Ed's contacts, Jim wouldn't be reporting from the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Roof Status
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The roof is open tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The World Series graces the great state of Texas for the first time tonight as game 3 pits Jon Garland and the Chicago White Sox vs. Roy Oswalt and the Houston Astros. It's a matchup of strengths; the Astros were tied for the best home record in the National League. The White Sox are the best road team in the majors. Tonight's starters reflect this strength.

Garland's ERA was 3.44 on the road vs. 3.56 at home. Interestingly, the batting stats against Garland are better at home, except for home runs allowed. I don't have it split out, but I suspect he was better with runners in scoring position on the road.

Oswalt's record is much better at home. During the regular season he went 12-2 at Minute Maid, 8-10 on the road. His road ERA was very good (3.38) however, indicating his offense was more responsible for Roy record. Oswalt's one weakness at home is the home run. He allowed 12 in Houston vs. 6 away in about the same number of innings. Given the White Sox superior power, they might be able to take advantage of that weakness.

The few times Garland's batted, he's done okay. He has two hits in 12 at bats, but he's pretty good at putting the bat on the ball. He's only struck out twice in those 12 at bats (he also has 1 walk). Compare that to Oswalt, who's struck out 88 times in 307 at bats, better than 25%.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:07 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mara Dies
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Wellington Mara passed away today. There's no connection to baseball here other than the Giants used to play at Yankee Stadium, but I'm a life long Giants fan. My thoughts are with his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:33 PM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Close the Roof!
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A commenter to this post says there's a movement to get the Astros fans to chant "Close the roof!" before the National Anthem, and keep chanting it until the roof is closed. Getting baseball fans that organized is tough, but I'll be listening for the chant tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:27 PM | World Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Bowa to the Yankees?
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There is plenty of speculation that Larry Bowa will be the new third base coach of the Yankees. Larry Bowa is interested in the job:

At the World Series as an ESPN analyst, Bowa said he's spoken with both Yankees manager Joe Torre and general manager Brian Cashman. Before Bowa's deal can be finalized, Cashman must decide whether to accept a new contract from New York -- his current deal expires Oct. 31.

"Brian and I talked. We're pretty much on the same page," Bowa said Monday as the Houston Astros took batting practice. "Nothing's been finalized."

This move strikes me as the Yankees preparing for Joe Torre's departure in two years. If they are thinking of replacing Joe with Larry, the result won't be fine. Bowa is a protege of Dallas Green, and we remember how well he worked as a Yankees manager. Bowa won't insulate the players from the press and upper management the way Joe Torre did. It will be back to the Bronx Zoo days of Billy Martin with Bowa at the helm. The Yankees can do better than that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Change of Policy?
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One thing that bothered me about all this roof opening and closing is that there appeared to be a change of policy. I remember the Blue Jays having the roof closed during the playoffs in the early 1990's because they were told to keep it shut:

Blue Jays management decides whether it will be open or closed for regular-season games. In the postseason, however, the American League dictated that the roof stay closed for each of the playoff and World Series games played at the Rogers Centre.

There were some beautiful days during those playoffs, but the roof stayed closed. Of course, things have changed. CBS is no longer the rights holder, and the American League no longer exists as an independent entity. Bud Selig's view may be that games should be played out doors whenever possible. The opening of the roof in Arizona during the 2001 World Series supports that theory.

So at one time, baseball insisted on the roof being closed despite great weather, and now may insist that it's open, despite the home team wishing otherwise. I would think that roof closed would be the default state for domed stadiums in the playoffs. To open the roof, I would want a very compelling weather report that nothing is going to happen, be it rain or just a sudden drop in temperature. The roof closed provides a controlled environment which better ensures the broadcast goes off without a hitch. I'm surprised that's not the stance of MLB.

Note: I greatly prefer outdoor to indoor baseball. If I were attending the game as a non-partisan fan, I'd want the roof open. What I don't understand here is the logic baseball is applying. From a business perspective, MLB is better off with the roof closed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM | World Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (1)
Turning Luck into Wins
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Greg Couch explores the luck of the White Sox:

Face it, the Sox have been lucky. Very lucky. Let someone else worry about that. Let Houston worry about it, and maybe that'll lead to more luck.

Game 1 of the American League Championship Series and also the World Series were defined by the Sox' opponent losing its ace pitcher to injury. In Game 2 of both series, umpiring mistakes directly helped the Sox win.

That's not why they're here. They're here because they know what to do with the luck. I mean, if you believe in luck, then it happens to everyone all the time. The key is what you do with it. The Sox are making the absolute most of it.

The Sox are running right through the postseason, having won nine of 10 games because of star pitching and because they're always ready to jump on the mouse when it pops its head out of the hole.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Inspecting the Park
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Jon Garland says Minute Maid won't effect the way he pitches:


Garland, who relies mostly on his changeup and sinker, tried to make himself at home at Minute Maid Park during the White Sox's workout Monday. He checked out the short fences in right field and left field. Everything was familiar to the righthander, who visited the park in 2003 during spring training.

"I've actually thrown here before in 2003, I believe," he said. "We came here for spring training. It's nothing new.

"For me, it really doesn't matter where I'm pitching. I'm not going to try to pitch somebody different because a short porch or a deep porch, something like that. I've got to go out and make quality pitches, regardless. If I'm not doing that, it's not going to matter where I'm at."

Garland pitched a bit better on the road this season, allowing fewer home run than in Comiskey.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 24, 2005
Roof!
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There was a particularly funny Looney Tunes cartoon about show business which ended with a the old joke about a dog who can talk. The owner is showing the dog off to an agent, and starts asking the dog questions:

Owner: What's the texture of sand paper?

Dog: Rough!

Owner: What's on top of a house?

Dog: Roof!

Owner: Who's the greatest baseball player of all time?

Dog: Ruth!

You then see the owner and the dog kicked out on the street, at which point the dog interjects, "Maybe I should have said DiMaggio!"

I'm more interested in what's on top of a house, however. The roof in Houston has become an issue.

The Astros have kept the retractable roof shut tight for all five of their postseason games over the first two rounds. But during the World Series, it's MLB's call. And MLB officials have told the Astros they prefer the great outdoors -- tropical storms permitting.

The Astros correctly believe that the closed roof helps them:

"Bottom line," said manager Phil Garner on Monday, "is that I think that with it closed, it does generate a lot of noise and it's a lot of fun. And I think that we play for that. We play for that excitement, and that noise -- it helps a little bit."

So how much has it helped? The Astros had the second-best home record in the sport (53-28) this year, trailing only Boston. And they have gone 4-1 at home during this postseason, losing only the game in which Brad Lidge allowed that game-winning two-out homer in the ninth to Albert Pujols in the NLCS.

But their winning percentage when the roof is open is only .577 (15-11) -- versus .684 (39-18) when it's closed (counting the postseason). (There were two other games this year in which the roof was opened during the late innings.)

It's a very interesting decision. I would guess that nobody other than the White Sox want the roof open. The Astros obviously believe it helps them. I would guess the Astros fans want what's best for the team and would vote to keep the roof shut (Astros fans, please comment). My guess is that Fox would prefer the roof closed, as they don't have to worry about sudden changes in weather causing a delay in their broadcast. So who is Selig helping by having the roof open? His old friend Reinsdorf, maybe? I thought they had a falling out after Jerry signed Albert Belle, but 10 years is a long time. They could have patched up things.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | World Series | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0)
Rocket Ready
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It seems Clemens will pitch Thursday if the Astros can win at least one of the next two games:

Garner said either Wandy Rodriguez, who worked 3 1/3 shaky innings in relief of Clemens in Game 1, or Ezequiel Astacio, who started 14 games for the Astros this season, would get the nod if Clemens wasn't healthy.

But Garner seemed certain that Clemens would be ready.

"Roger Clemens is pitching the fifth game right now," Garner said.

Clemens was given a cortisone shot after Saturday's game, a baseball official who was updated on Clemens' condition told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark on Sunday. Because Clemens has responded to these shots in the past, the Astros hadn't ruled out the possibility that he could pitch again in this World Series.

"He's just a special individual. Sometimes your will can go a lot farther than your body," teammate Jeff Bagwell said Sunday. "The legend grows every day for him. I just think this could be another special time."

"Hobbled Clemens Beats White Sox" as a headline would certainly make his legend grow for Astros fans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Dyeing to Be in Chicago
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Jermaine Dye turned down better offers from West Coast teams to play with the White Sox. A big reason was travel:

"There were a couple of teams that had [offered] a better contract,'' he conceded Sunday before the start of Game 2 at U.S. Cellular Field. The Texas Rangers were one, "but me playing in the West [Division] with Oakland, I didn't really want to go back to the West. A lot of things played a factor --traveling, scheduling, the other teams you're going to be facing in our division.

"I just felt that I played in Kansas City before, so I knew the travel in the Midwest was a lot easier than going from the West all the way across to the East. You don't really have off days. You're spending your off days traveling.

I always find these free agent stories interesting. There's a perception that many free agents just go for the biggest pay day, but often location is as important as money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:05 PM | World Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Believing the Hype
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Chris de Luca writes on the White Sox being well grounded, and how last night's game demonstrates why they need to be:

Frank Thomas used to have a sign near his locker in the White Sox clubhouse that warned ''DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE.''

Those words keep popping into general manager Ken Williams' mind these days.

''It's something we should probably plaster on our foreheads right now,'' Williams said. ''Because it can change in a heartbeat.''

Change in a heartbeat?

From the seventh inning on, that's all Game 2 of the World Series did Sunday night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:52 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros In Trouble
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What was thought to be the Astros great strength in this series is now a serious weakness. Roger Clemens is iffy for a game five start. So over the next three games Houston is throwing Roy Oswalt, Brandon Backe and unknown; either a less than healthy Roger Clemens, Wandy Rodriguez or Ezequiel Astacio. None of those choices inspire a lot of confidence. Except for the Garland-Oswalt matchup, the White Sox have the better starter in two of the next three games. Since Chicago only needs two more wins for the championship, things are looking very good for the southsiders right now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 AM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Thoughts On Game 2
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We saw the danger of having to go to your bullpen last night for both teams. There's no guarantee that once you start using your pen in a predictable fashion that the pitchers will be successful. On the random night that somebody's off, you're in trouble.

It looks like the White Sox relievers pitch better on two weeks rest than in back to back games. :-)

There's an old adage that any major league hitter can catch up to a fast ball. Jeff Bagwell showed last night that he's still a major league hitter. Jeff was blown away by Bobby Jenks the night before, but on Sunday he waited for a fast ball down he could hit. The few pitches Jeff saw in the two nights were enough for him to adjust to the speed, then experience took over. Bad shoulder and all, he can still hit the heater.

Jose Vizcaino proved once again that if you put the ball in play, good things happen (although I still have not seen a report of Garner's reasoning in that situation). His hit along with Podsednik's home run demonstrate something else I love about baseball: Anyone can be the hero. In football and basketball, there are designated heroes. Joe Montana throws to Jerry Rice. Bird or Johnson or Jordan gets the last shot. But in baseball, Podsednik and Vizcaino get the chance to be the hero and sometimes succeed.

Last night was a higher scoring game than I expected. Given the weather conditions and the quality of the starters, I thought we'd be lucky to get three or four runs out of either team. But in a sign of Andy Pettitte getting old, the cold bothered him last night:

Pettitte was frustrated all night by the way his body reacted to the cold temperatures and persistent rain. It didn't hamper his footing and ball control as much as it simply hurt his body. Pettitte didn't have such issues in previous postseasons.

"The weather has never been a problem for me, but there are different circumstances for me now, especially coming off elbow surgery and late in the season like this," Pettitte said. "It's totally different circumstances"

The next few games will be climate controlled. Unfortunately for Pettitte, he won't go again until game 6 (if there is one) and the weather's not likely to get warmer in Chicago this time of year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | World Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
October 23, 2005
White Sox Win
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An amazing ending as both closers blow the game. Jenks gets the blown save, but Lidge gets the loss. For the second appearance in a row, Brad gives up a game winning home run.

The White Sox have just a little more power than the Astros, posting five extra base hits to the Astros four. Chicago scored five of their seven runs on the two homers.

Chicago retains the home field advantage, and go to Houston with the sweep still intact.

As for the hit by pitch that appeared to hit the bat, it wasn't that bad a call. In real time, I couldn't tell at all. If called correctly, it would have been a foul ball and Dye might have walked anyway, given Wheeler's wildness.

An exciting game, and another close game. Houston plays great at home, and they'll need to do that to get back in this series. Garland vs. Oswalt on Tuesday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | World Series | Comments (23) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Lidge is in to pitch. Burke is at second, Lamb at first, Vizcaino at short and Berkman in left. 9-1-2 is scheduled for Chicago.

Update: Uribe gives the ball a ride but flies out to deep center.

Update: Podsednik does his Albert Pujols, taking Lidge deep for the White Sox victory. As Tim McCarver points out, Podsednik had no regular season home runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 PM | World Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Bagwell, Lane and Burke will try to keep the Astros alive in the ninth inning.

Update: Bagwell gets his bat on the ball against Jenks tonight and flies a single to short center.

Update: Jenks blows Lane away with three pitches. Jason swung through all three for the strikeout.

Update: Jenks walks Burke, putting the tying runs on with one out. The bottom of the order is up now, starting with Ausmus.

Update: Ausmus hits a slow roller to first. It advances the runners, but there's two outs.

Amazingly, Vizcaino is going to pinch hit! What is Garner thinking?

Update: Some of that Yankees World Series luck must come over with Jose. He hits the first pitch from Jenks into left, and both runners score. Burke makes a great slide away from the tag, catching the plate with his hand. That game is tied in the top of the ninth at six, and Jenks is gone. Vizcaino is at second on the throw to the plate and represents the go-ahead run.

Update: Cotts is in to pitch to pinch hitter Mike Lamb.

Update: Lamb flies out to end the inning. Eighteen innings in the rain, anyone?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Lefty Reliever
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With one out in the eighth, Gallo comes in to face the left handed catcher Pierzynski.

Update: Gallo gets his man, and will face Crede.

Update: Gallo gets Crede as well, and Jenks comes on to pitch the ninth. The Astros have three outs to score two runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Good Manners in the Eighth
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Cliff Politte enters the game in relief of Buehrle.

Update: Two weeks off doesn't hurt Cliff as he gets the Astros in order, including a strikeout of Berkman. The White Sox are three outs away from going up 2-0 in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Grand Slam!
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Paul Konerko greets Chad Qualls with a grand slam into the left field seats to put the White Sox up 6-4. The vaunted Astros pen is not having a good game.

Carl Everett follows with a single.

Fox just showed an extreme magnification of the Dye hit by pitch and it did appear to hit the bat, not Dye's arm.

Update: Everett is thrown out stealing to end the inning. Once again the White Sox take advantage of a poor call by an umpire to score runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | World Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Wheeling In Relief
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Dan Wheeler starts the seventh inning for the Astros.

Update: Uribe hits the wall in center with one out for his second double of the game and third of the series. Uribe hit 23 doubles in the regular season and only slugged .412.

Update: Wheeler strikes out Podsednik for the second out of the inning. It's up to Iguchi.

Update: Wheeler breaks the no-walk streak, issuing a free pass to Iguchi, bringing Dye to the plate with runners on first and second with two out.

Update: Dye has a long at bat that ends with Dye being hit by a pitch. The broadcasters think it hit the bat, but I can't tell from the replay.

That's it for Wheeler, as Qualls is coming in to face Konerko with the bases loaded and two outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Seven for Buehrle
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Mark gets through seven innings, striking out six and walking none. He's at 100 pitches, so he still has room to finish this game.

Everett got the bat on the ball in that inning, but lined to the Crede vacuum cleaner at third. Biggio strikes out, making the 9 and 1 hitters a combined 0 for 7 in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Who'll Stop Tim Raines?
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The rain is coming down in the bottom of the sixth. It usually looks worse on TV than it really is, but the people in the stands look pretty uncomfortable.

Update: Everett bloops a single into centerfield with two outs.

Update: Rowand drives the first pitch down the left field line, hitting just inside the line at the wall. That puts men on 2nd and 3rd with two out. Pettitte is staying in against Pierzynski.

Update: Pettitte pops Pierzynski for the third out. His first pitch swinging keeps the Astros lead at two. Pettitte is at 98 pitches, Buehrle at 90.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Walks
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Buehrle pitches a 1-2-3 inning in the sixth. Neither pitcher has issued a free pass yet, and the two lefties have combined to strike out nine in 11 half innings. The batters are earning every run tonight with batted balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Uribe Answers
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Uribe starts the White Sox fifth with a double. These teams seem to be able to answer what ever challenge the opposition offers.

Podsednik flys to center for the first out.

Update: Iguchi taps back to Pettitte, who chases Uribe back to second and throws him out. Iguchi on first for Dye with two out.

Update: The great pickoff move of Pettitte shines as he takes out Iguchi at first. Andy's ability to take off runners with pickoff and double plays makes up for the high number of base runners he allows. The removed runners effectively reduce his OBA allowed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Ausmus Doubles
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Brad Ausmus leads off the fifth with a double off the glove of the diving Crede.

Update: Everett fails to bunt and Buehrle ends up with a strike out, the second time the shortstop went down swinging.

Update: Biggio pops up, but Iguchi can't get to the ball. Rather than over playing the pop, he holds back and plays it on a hop and gets Biggio at first.

Update: Ensberg lines to short to end the inning. The Astros 3-4 hitter have done their jobs, driving in all four runs with a homer, double and sac fly.

Update: Taveras hits a slow roller to the left of Crede. Uribe fields the ball but can't get Willy at first. That sets up first and third for Berkman with two out.

Update: Berkman delivers. He doubles down the left field line and both runners score. Who needs little ball when you can drive in a runner from first? The Astros lead 4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Fourth
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Pettitte has just as easy a time as Buehrle in the fourth, getting the side in order also. Mark has thrown 16 fewer pitches so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ground Out Fourth
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Buehrle gets three ground outs to retire the Astros 1-2-3 in the fourth. Two were hard hit with nice plays by Iguchi and Konerko to turn them into outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Iguchi on the Board
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Tadahito Iguchi gets on base in his seventh at bat, singling down the line in left to start the bottom of the third.

Update: Iguchi goes on a 3-2 pitch and reaches second as Dye breaks his bat and grounds out to first.

Update: Konerko grounds out to second, advancing Iguchi to third.

Update: This time, Ensberg makes a good play on a shot to third. He smothers the ball hit by Carl Everett and gets the out at first to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Triple for Taveras
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With one out in the third, Taveras hits a double down the right field line that takes a favorable bounce away from Dye, allowing Taveras to turn it into a triple. A sac fly by Berkman ties the game. That's the second triple we've seen in this series, Podsednik hitting one yesterday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ensberg Error?
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Rowand smashes a ball past Morgan Ensberg at third base to reach with one out. It looks like Morgan pulled away from the ball instead of getting in front of it. Aaron gets a hit on the play.

Pierzynski follows with a ball off the wall in left, but Rowand held up and only made it to second.

Crede, however, follows up with a dump single to right, scoring Rowand. The White Sox come right back and tie the game at one.

Update: Another defensive miscue, this time by Biggio. Craig goes back on a pop by Uribe and drops the ball, allowing Pierzynski to score. Biggio doesn't get an error, however, as he forces the runner at second.

Pettitte gets out of the inning, but poor defense cost him the lead, even though the runs are earned.

Update: I should note that a more experienced left fielder might have caught Pierzynski's ball. Three poor defensive plays led to that two run inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Morgan Magic
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Morgan Ensberg leads off the second inning with a home run into the left field seats. Buehrle cut his home runs this year from 33 to 20, one big reason for Mark's improvement. Morgan, however, tags him to give Houston a 1-0 lead.

Update: Lane singels and steals, Ausmus gets an infield single and Everett is up with men on first and third with two out.

Update: Everett strikes out swinging to end the inning. The Astros threaten, but come up with just the one run on the Ensberg homer. Pettitte takes a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Podsednik starts the game for Chicago with a long at bat. He his the ball hard, but Lane tracks it down in right. Pettitte threw as many pitches to Podsednik as Buehrle did in the top of the inning.

Update: Iguchi strikes out swinging. He's the only Chicago starter not to reach base in the series.

Update: Dye once again collects the first hit of the game, a hard grounder to the left of Everett.

Update: Konerko ends the bottom of the first the same way Berkman ended the top, striking out looking. The White Sox do work Pettitte, however, getting him to throw 23 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros-White Sox Underway
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Biggio starts the game with a fly out to Rowand in left center.

Update: Taveras drags a bunt to Buehrle for the second out of the inning.

Update: Buehrle gets Berkman looking at strike three. An easy first for Mark as he throws 10 pitches, 7 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rain Delay
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The start of the game is being delayed by rain. The tarp was off the field, but just as they were ready to get the game underway, the umpires called for the tarp to be rolled out again. But before the plastic cover could be deployed, the rain let up and they're rolling it up again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pregame Report
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The Astros make one move with the lefty Buehrle on the mound. Burke gets the start in left as Berkman moves to first. Bagwell also moves up to fifth in the lineup as the DH.

Chicago goes with the same lineup as yesterday.

It's also raining, but it's light and the field is playable. They'll get this game in, although it's reminiscent of game 3 of the Yankees-Angels ALDS series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Radio Guest
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I'll be on the Lehigh Valley Yankee Fan Club Radio Show at 7 PM EDT. You can tune in now to Yankees talk.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:30 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Andy Pettitte goes to the mound against Mark Buehrle in a battle of lefties in game 2 of the 2005 World Series. Pettitte and Buehrle are at opposite ends of the experience spectrum when it comes to the fall classic. Mark is making his championship debut, while Pettitte goes to 11. Andy is 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA in his 10 World Series starts.

"I realize I've had a lot of good starts, also, but I've had a lot of bad ones," Pettitte said. "And I really don't know, I mean I have been able to come up big on some occasions when they needed a big start out of me and stuff like that. And I think just the more chances and the more opportunities you have to do this you just feel more and more comfortable with it."

Pettitte did not carry his great year-end pitching into the playoffs. He's given up 10 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in October. He had only allowed nine earned runs in his last eight regular season outings.

US Cellular field is not the best park for Pettitte, either. He hasn't pitched their since 2001, but posted a 3-4 record with a 6.44 in 10 starts at the park.

Like all the Chicago starters, Buehrle is coming off a complete game victory. Mark pitched three complete games during the regular season and averaged over seven innings per start in 2005. Mark was equally as good vs. lefties and righties this season, with righties getting on base a bit more but not hitting for as much power. He matches up well against the Astros, who were even in OBA against lefties and righties, but hit for less power against lefties.

Enjoy!


Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Everett Swap
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Neil Hohlfeld remembers the deal of the Everetts:

The young player came to the Astros in a trade with the Boston Red Sox for a veteran whose salary was getting out of the club's range.

The young player matured and earned a spot as an everyday player. He was in the starting lineup Saturday night as the Astros played the Chicago White Sox in the first game of the World Series.

And it's not Jeff Bagwell.

Instead, it's Adam Everett, the shortstop who was involved in the second-best trade the Astros made with the Red Sox.

The deal was Everett for Everett, made Dec. 16, 1999. Both players are in the World Series, with Carl Everett the designated hitter for the White Sox.

I'm not so sure it was such a good trade. In the season since Carl left Houston, he's amassed 82 win shares to just 38 for Adam. If Carl never plays again, Adam will need to stay of the 12 WS a year pace for four years just to catch the White Sox DH. But Adam is 28 and his offense is declining. He had his lowest batting average, OBA and slugging of his first three full seasons. Another bad sign is that his strikeouts went way up. He struck out in 16% of his at bats in 2003-2004, 19% in 2005. Adam has no value offensively on the road, where his OPS is .565. My guess is that by the end of next year, Everett's offense will be two low to justify his defense, and he'll go from starter to late inning replacement.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM | Trades | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Rogers Story
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There seem to be some inconsistencies in the stories about Roger Clemens' injury last night. The Houston Chronicle reports:

Clemens re-injured his hamstring trying to cover first on A.J. Pierzynski's grounder in the right-side hole fielded by first baseman Mike Lamb, who threw out Aaron Rowand at second as Carl Everett was scoring from third.

But Clemens didn't look right to me in the first. Ausmus disagrees:

"Roger was strong in the bullpen and strong in the first inning," catcher Brad Ausmus said. "He had good stuff, no problem. The home run? A fastball with a 3-2 count — it happens. There was no sign until the second inning, after the play when he covered first, that anything was wrong"

Then Roger causes himself more problems by not talking to the media right away:

Clemens' scheduled appearance in the postgame interview room, following the Astros' 5-3 defeat, was canceled when he told club officials he didn't think he could comfortably make it up and down the steps required to get there. After undergoing a long icing session, he spoke just briefly, saying he had no idea what the future holds.

But as the Sun-Times points out:

He made the media wait for almost an hour after the game ended before he spoke briefly. MLB officials said he couldn't come to the interview room because of the steps, but there are no steps to get there from the visiting clubhouse.

The bottom line is we don't know if Clemens will pitch again in the series.


Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2005
White Sox Win Game 1
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An impressive outing by the White Sox bullpen. The rest didn't hurt as Jenks was throwing consistently around 100 MPH. They record five of their six outs with swinging strikeouts.

Roger Clemens' injury loomed large in this game. The Astros scored on Contreras early, but Clemens couldn't over power the White Sox and they also scored early. The big difference in the game was the home run allowed by Wandy Rodriguez in relief of Clemens. The White Sox had tons of opportunities against Wandy, but couldn't plate another run against the lefty.

It's another close win for the White Sox, their forte all year. I didn't understand Garner's use of Burke, first not using him to pinch hit for Lamb, then wasting him as a pinch runner leaving Everett to bat in the bottom of the ninth.

Game 2 tomorrow night and we'll see a battle of lefties as Pettitte faces Buehrle.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Dye drops a foul fly ball by Lane. It was a tough play, but he did have the ball in his glove. Lane strikes out swinging, no harm no foul. The last four Astros batters struck out swinging.

Update: Ausmus gets wood on the ball, but grounds out to shortstop. Everett is batting!

Update: By burning Burke as a pinch runner, Everett strkies out swinging on three pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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Springer enters the game to pitch to Pierzynski.

Update: A.J. singles to start the inning.

Update: Crede flies out to right. One down.

Update: Uribe flies to left. That's the first time Uribe failed to reach tonight.

Update: Pierzynski steals second. He took Houston totally bu surprise.

Update: Podsednik gets the insurance run home in style with a blistering line drive to right center for a triple. The White Sox lead 5-3.

Update: Iguchi flies to right to go 0 for 5 in his first World Series game. The Astros will send the bottom of the lineup to the plate in the ninth, needing two runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Double
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Contreras comes out for the eighth and Taveras doubles again to left center. One thing I like about Guillen is even if he doesn't use his pen, his relievers are warmed and ready if the starter gets in trouble. Cotts is coming in to pitch to Berkman.

Update: Berkman singles to left, moving Taveras to third. Berkman is equally good left/right in batting average and OBA. Just his power suffers when he's turned around.

Update: Ensberg strikes out swinging. He's 0 for 4 with a strikeout tonight.

Update: I'm a little surprised that Burke is not pinch hitting for Lamb and Mike strikes out swinging. It's up to Bagwell with two outs.

Update: That's it for Cotts. The time off didn't seem to hurt him at all. Jenks is on for a four-out save.

Update: Burke is used now to pinch run for Berkman.

Update: Burke steals second on an 0-2 pitch.

Update: Bagwell strikes out swinging. It seems the well rested White Sox bullpen has plenty of strength to bring the heat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Jermaine Dye reaches on an Adam Everett throwing error to start the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Poor defense continues for the Astros. Dye runs before Qualls pitches, but makes it back to first on a poor throw from second and a poor tag by Lamb at first.

Update: Qualls gets the next three batters to end the inning. The Astros have six outs to get at least one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bagwell Brushed Again
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Contreras comes inside to Bagwell again, and hits him again. Jeff's doing a good job of getting on base via the HBP.

Update: With one out, Contreras hits Ausmus, just brushing his elbow. First and second for the Astros with Everett up.

Update: Everett grounds into a force, but beats the relay throw to put runners on 1st and 3rd.

Update: Crede is doing a good Graig Nettles impression tonight as he dives for a hard hit ball by Biggio and throws him out to end the inning. The White Sox lead 4-3 in the middle of the seventh.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wandy Walks Uribe
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Rodriguez issues his fifth walk of the game, putting Uribe on first with one out in the bottom of the sixth. Uribe had a .301 OBA during the regular season. That's it for the left hander.

Update: Qualls relieves Rodriguez.

Update: Podsednik grounds into a force, taking Uribe's place at first.

Update: Podsednik steals second as the ball gets away from Ausmus. Scott had a good jump on the pitch.

Update: Iguchi strikes out to end the inning.

The White Sox score just one run off Rodriguez despite his giving up four hits and five walks. For all the "smart ball," the one run came on a homer. We'll see if this wasted opportunity comes back to cost the White Sox the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Willie Wonks One
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Willie Taveras leads off the sixth with a double to left center. Berkman has a chance to drive in the tieing run after the White Sox squander the chance for a big inning.

Berkman grounds to first, Taveras to third.

Update: Ensberg hits a smash, and Crede gobbles it up at third. Taveras is still at third with two out.

Update: Another hard hit ball, but Lamb grounds out to second. The leadoff double goes for naught.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Wandy the Walker
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Dye walks leading off the fifth for the White Sox. That's the third walk Rodriguez allowed in this game. Walks and home runs were the rookie's problems this season.

Update: Konerko sweeps a 3-1 pitch up the middle for a line drive single. It's first and second for the White Sox with Everett up.

Update: The White Sox waste an out as Everett sacrifices. If you're going to sacrifice with your fifth slot hitter, you need a new fifth slot hitter. Rodriguez is wild, why not let Everett try to reach base?

Update: Rowand is intentionall walked to bring the lefty Pierzynski to the plate.

Update: The slow Pierzynski hits into a well turned 3-6-1 double play to end the inning. The free out gets the Astros out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Taking the Fifth
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The Astros go 1-2-3 in the fifth. Contreras appears to be settling down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Crede Creams the Ball
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Joe Crede takes Rodriguez deep to left center to once again give the White Sox a lead, 4-3. Taveras leaped, but the ball was well over his glove.

Update: Rodriguez follows the home run with a walk to Uribe.

Update: Podsednik singles up the middle to put men on first and second.

Update: Iguchi grounds into a double play to end the inning. So far, whenever the White Sox, the Astros come right back to tie the game. We'll see if they homer in the top of the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Fourth
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Contreras gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the fourth. Jose is throwing strikes. He has 38 in 56 pitches through four innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Clemens Gone
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Wandy Rodriguez starts the third inning for the Astros in relief of Roger Clemens. We don't know why Clemens is out of the game, but I have to believe the leg wasn't right tonight.

Update: They're reporting a sore left hamstring put Clemens out of the game.

Update: Dye walks with one out.

Update: Konerko singles to right to put men on first and second. For a series that's supposed to be a duel of great pitchers, there's been plenty of offense so far.

Update: Rodriguez gets Everett to strike out swinging.

Update: No damage as Rowand grounds out to end the inning. Rodriguez's job is to hold the White Sox until the Astros can get to the meat of the pen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Brad Bings
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Brad Ausmus lines a single into right to lead off the third inning for the Astros.

Update: Rodriguez is still throwing in the bullpen for the Astros. Fox just showed video of Clemens limping down the stairs at the end of the previous inning.

Everett taps back to Contreras for a force out.

Update: Biggio singles on a soft fly to short center to put men on first and second for the Astros.

Update: Taveras tries to bunt his way on, and Contreras makes a good play to throw him out a first.

The Sox pitch to Berkman, and he hits the first down the right field line for a double and a tie game. This seems to be a game of "Anything you can do I can do better," so far.

Update: Ensberg grounds out to short to end the inning. It's 3-3 in the middle of the third. Both teams have four hits, a double and a homer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | World Cup | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Carl Connects
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Carl Everett gets a single to lead off the White Sox second.

Update: Nicely executed hit and run by Aaron Rowand. He hit a soft one hopper through the hole vacated by the second baseman. Chicago has men on 1st and 3rd with none out.

Every batter has put the ball in play against Clemens so far.

Update: Everett scores on a grounder to Lamb. Mike looked Carl back, but could have been thrown out. Lamb threw to second for the force, and Everett came home easily. It's 2-1 Chicago.

Update: Crede shatters his bat and grounds out to third for the second out of the inning. Pierzynski's at second with two out.

Update: You can't spell Uribe without RBI as Jose drives in A.J. from second with a double to the gap in left center. Clemens has gone through the Astros order without a strikeout. The bottom of the White Sox order, a weak bottom, has three hits off Clemens. Roger does not have his good stuff tonight. I think the combination of cold weather and an injured leg is taking its toll.

Update: Clemens finally gets a strikeout, but it takes him twelve pitches to put away Podsednik. The White Sox are up 3-1 after two innings. More importantly, they've worked Clemens for 54 pitches so far. They may get Roger out of there in less than five innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lamb Blasted
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Mike Lamb blasts a ball over the center field fence with one out in the second. It's tied at 1 after the homer.

Update: A pitch gets away from Contreras and hits Bagwell up and in. Man on first with one out.

Update: Lane grounds into a double play to end the inning. Two hits in the game so far, both home runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Podsednik grounds out to first to start the White Sox first.

Update: Iguchi grounds out to third for the second out.

Update: Dye worked Clemens, fouling off a number of pitches, then takes the ball the opposite way over the right field fence for a home run and a 1-0 Chicago lead.

Clemens looks to me like he can't put batters away tonight. His body language is bad. He's walking around a lot between pitches. I don't think he's healthy tonight. Maybe it's the cold.

Update: Konerko works the count full then grounds out to short to end the inning. The White Sox made Clemens work, getting him to throw twenty five pitches that inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros-White Sox Underway
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Joe Crede makes a good play on a slow, 3-2 roller to get Craig Biggio for the first out of the World Series.

Update: Taveras swings at a pitch at his ankles and pops it to short for the second out.

Update: Berkman strikes out Berkman looking on a nice curve ball. Jose looked tight to me pitching to Biggio, but by the time he faced Berkman that was gone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bagwell DH
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They just announced the starting lineup for the Astros and Bagwell is going to be the DH, batting sixth in the order. I've mixed feelings about this. Given his career, Bagwell certainly deserves a start in the World Series. But he's had just three extra-base hits, all doubles, since returning from surgery. My feeling is that Burke probably gives them a better chance to win, especially the way he's playing in the post season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Burke starting the other games in Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Links
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Two blogs you'll want to check out are The Baltimore Chop and Rock and Roll Baseball. The Chop features writings about the Orioles. There's a long post up about the post season moves in the Baltimore management. Rock and Roll is brand new and starts off with an evaluation of the Manny Ramirez trade attempts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:24 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The World Series gets underway tonight as Jose Contreras and the Chicago White Sox host Roger Clemens and the Houston Astros. It's the first World Series game in Houston history, and they'll send a veteran of the competition to the mound. Roger's World Series series experience is a lot like his 2005 season; his record doesn't reflect his excellent ERA. He's made seven starts in the fall classic and posted a 1.90 ERA, but he's only won three of the games (no losses). He's struck out 48 in 47 1/3 innings while walking just 12. His record in Comiskey isn't that impressive, however. He's 4-3 in 10 starts there with a 3.94 ERA.

Jose Contreras starts game 1 for the third time this post season. He's posted a 2.88 ERA in three starts so far, and was the pitcher of record in the White Sox only loss. It's impressive that based on two months of great pitching Contreras is getting the plum assignments of the post season. After his defeat of the Red Sox, Francona explained what changed with Jose:

"We saw a much more mature pitcher," said manager Terry Francona. "I knew the run he's been on and today we found out why."

Francona said that in the past against the Red Sox, if Contreras got into trouble, he would either overthrow or would go predominantly to his split-fingered fastball, a pitch hitters can lay off in hitters' counts. Tuesday, Francona said, Contreras did not overthrow and he was mixing the splitter effectively in all counts, throwing plausible strikes with it.

The big question for tonight is Roger Clemens' health. In his game 3 start against the Cardinals, Roger was fine the first three innings, but struggled after that. The biggest sign that something was wrong, however, was that Roger only struck out one in six innings. Luckily, the Astros have a great defense, posting the highest DER in the NL in 2005. Clemens also locates his pitches so well that even without overpowering stuff Roger is capable of shutting down the opposing offense.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 21, 2005
Depressing a Royals Fan
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The Daily Lancer compares pitching coaches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
First In Line
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Sean Kirst tells the story of two people who became legends by being first in line for World Series tickets year after year. Also, watch Sean's blog as he reports from the World Series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 20, 2005
Chicago vs. Houston
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ChicagoHouston
2005ValueAL RankValueNL Rank
Runs per Game4.579th4.2511th
Batting Average.26211th-T.25613th-T
On-Base Average.32211th-T.32212th
Slugging Percentage.4257th-T.40811th
ERA3.611st-T3.512nd

This looks like a dead-even series. The run predictor I use has these two opponents separated by .01 runs, 3.75 to 3.74.

Still, there are some things in my mind that work in the White Sox favor. The White Sox starters, as shown in the ALCS, are capable of going deep into a game. The Astros offense saw 3.68 pitches per plate appearance this season, about even with the Angels at 3.65. With the White Sox pitchers ability to throw strikes, my guess is Houston will average less that that in the series. When pitchers go deep, when you don't need to go to the pen, you eliminate the chance that some pitcher is going to have a bad day.

Clemens and Pettitte don't do this. Roger is a seven inning pitcher. Oswalt can run his pitch count high pretty quickly. It's unlikely Backe is going nine in game four. Yes, the Astros have a good pen, but as Lidge showed, when you see a pitcher everyday he can become hittable.

Secondly, the Astros did not play well on the road, while the White Sox were great away from home. The Astros were 53-28 at home, but the White Sox were 52-29 on the road. A strength for the Astros is negated by an equal strength for the White Sox.

Thirdly, the White Sox lineup is ordered better than the Astros. The four best hitters sit at the top of the Chicago order, while the third best OBA on the Astros bats 7th or 8th. We saw how well this worked for Chicago in the first innings of games 3 and 4 in the ALCS. It's not that I think the White Sox offense is that much better, but by bunching their best hitters together, they're more likely to have a big inning.

I have no idea how lack of work will effect the Chicago bullpen. If the starters pitch as they did in the ALCS it won't matter. If the offense can get a big lead it won't matter. And no matter what, the pen would have five days off even if they had pitched. My guess is that the pitching coach kept them working.

Both pitching staff are complimented by extremely good defenses. Neither side gives the opposition any extra hits on balls in play.

So there you have it. Two great pitching staffs, with the White Sox having one more great starter. Two excellent bullpens, with the Astros having the advantage of being battle tested in two series. Two below average offenses, but with Chicago putting their best hitters close together. Neither team gives the opposing offense an extra out. I'll give Chicago a slight edge, 52-48. At least we won't have to stay up until midnight on the east coast to see the end of the games. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | World Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Low Wage Winners
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This is interesting:

For the first time since 1991, neither World Series participant will be a top-10 payroll team.

The Astros had the game's 12th-highest Opening Day payroll, $76.8 million. The White Sox were 13th at $75.2 million.

Having young, lousy hitters representing half your lineup certainly helps.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (20) | TrackBack (0)
Ranking the Series
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ESPN figured out how to do a Borda count poll! You can rank the last 20 World Series here. These polls don't suffer from having a small plurality win the vote. In general, the consensus second choice tends to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:23 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lucky Teams
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The Chicago White Sox won almost seven more games than predicted by Bill James Pythagorean formula, runs^2/(runs^2 + ra^2). This makes them the 6th luckiest team to reach the World Series:

TeamWinsPred. WinsDifferenceWon Series?
1970 Reds10291.410.6No
1961 Reds9383.49.6No
1931 Athletics10799.27.8No
1930 Athleitcs10294.87.2Yes
1959 White Sox9486.97.1No
2005 White Sox9992.26.8??
1960 Yankees9790.26.8No

Not very good news for the White Sox as only one of these lucky teams managed to win the World Series. It seems lucks runs out late in the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:34 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Mazzone to Baltimore
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The AP is reporting Leo Mazzone is moving to Baltimore to join his friend Sam Perlozzo as pitching coach. It looks like the Orioles problem last year was not having enough people with double zz's on the coaching staff!

Could this move shift the landscape of the two eastern divisions? Will Atlanta pitch as well without Leo, or will they finally fall out of the division lead? Will the Orioles improve to the point where they compete for a full season with the Yankees and Red Sox? If those shifts happen, especially due to the pitching, Mazzone will go from legend to icon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 AM | Management | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Birthday Twins
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It's really too bad that Frank Thomas can't play and Bagwell probably won't play much. The two have the exact same birthday, born on May 27, 1968. Both were outstanding offensive first basemen (Bagwell was a great defensive player as well). Both won MVP awards in 1994. Baseball Reference lists Thomas as the second most similar player to Bagwell, and Bagwell as the most similar player to Thomas. Bagwell has 449 career home runs, Thomas 448. They've each played their MLB careers with one franchise. Despite their greatness, neither of their teams ever made it to the World Series until now.

Apart from Thomas being five inches taller than Bagwell, you might think they really were twins!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | World Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (1)
Party Time!
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Houston fans had a good time downtown last night.

When the final out was recorded, fans hugged each other in the street and revelers ran from bars shouting, leaping and cheering.

"I love it so much!" screamed a beaming Larry Benavidez.

Cars packed with screaming Astros fans clogged downtown streets soon after the game. Drivers inched forward and held their hands out their windows, high-fiving pedestrians milling in the streets. People stood up through the sunroofs and hung out the side windows of their vehicles, waving Astros banners, flags, towels and the occasional brassiere as others marched on the sidewalks chanting "Astros, Astros, Astros."

"It's our turn now," screamed Andy Martinez, 44. "I've waited 35 years to see this. It's a lifetime dream. Now I can take my son and grandson to a World Series game. I never thought I would be able to do that."

This World Series will be a lot like 2002, when a wild card that never played for a championship played an historic franchise that hadn't won the title in years. That turned out to be a very good series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 19, 2005
Oswalt MVP
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Roy Oswalt picks up the NLCS MVP award, beating the Cardinals twice in St. Louis. He posted a 1.29 ERA and allowed a .163 batting average. A very deserving choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Houston Wins!
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The Houston Astros win their first National League Pennant. The out pitched, out hit and out defended the St. Louis Cardinals. Biggio and Bagwell get to finally make the trip to the World Series.

Oswalt rose to the challenge, allowing just three hits through seven innings while striking out six. The bullpen allowed just one hit while striking out three in two innings.

Veteran Brad Ausmus was the hitting star, going three for four and scoring a run. Brad hit .318 from the bottom of the order, continuing his hot hitting from the end of the season. With Everett hitting .304, the easy outs at the bottom of the Astros order proved to be a pain for the Cardinals.

Congratulations to the Astros on an excellent series. Since the wild card wins the series every year now, they become the odds on favorite to win the series! :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Isringhausen keeps the Astros off the board in the top of the ninth. It looks like Lidge will get a chance to redeem himself in the top of the ninth. The 4-5-6 hitters are up for St. Louis.

Update: It's Wheeler, not Lidge.

Update: Walker strikes out looking. Two outs to go.

Update: Mabry strikes out swinging. This is starting just like the ninth on Monday.

Update: Grudzielanek continues the deja vu, singling to right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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The Astros go 1-2-3 in the top of the 8th. The Cardinals need at least two runs here to get back in the game.

Update: Chad Qualls on to pitch.

Update: Eckstein grounds out to second. Five outs to go.

Update: Edmonds strikes out. Four outs to get four runs.

Update: Pujols lines out to short. The Astros are three outs away from the World Series, and the toughest part of the Cardinals order is out of the way.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Seventh
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Oswalt, with 105 pitches thrown, comes out for the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Everett makes a nice play on a Grudzielanek grounder up the middle for the first out of the inning. Eight to go.

Update: Molina grounds out to Biggio. Seven outs to go.

Update: Nunez singles up the middle.

Update: Taguchi gets his bat on the ball, but grounds out 3-1 to end the 7th. The Astros are six outs away from a trip north to Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Seventh
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La Russa goes to the bullpen again with Biggio at second after a sacrifice by Taveras. Flores relieves Marquis.

Update: Flores does his job and gets Berkman to fly out to Walker. The LOOGY leaves.

Update: It's a double switch as Tavarez and Taguchi enter the game.

Update: Ensberg trades places with Biggio as he singles to center and the ball skips by Edmonds. It's 5-1 Astros and things keep getting darker for the Cardinals.

Update: Another wild pitch! Ensberg moves to third. That's three wild pitches for the Red Birds tonight.

Update: Lane grounds out to end the inning. The Cardinals have nine outs left to spend, and they need to find away to buy four runs with them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Walker Doubles
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Larry Walker finally gets his first extra-base hit of the playoffs with a double off the right field wall near the corner. With two outs, Reggie Sanders is up. Oswalt is now over 100 pitches.

Update: The double is it as Sanders strikes out for the third time tonight. His 0 for 3 without getting the bat on the ball is a huge hole in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jason vs. Jason
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Jason Marquis takes the mound against Jason Lane in the top of the sixth. Lane grounds out to start the inning.

Update: Marquis is not doing much better than Mulder. After getting the first out, two hits put runners at first and third for Everett.

Update: Everett squeezes on a 3-1 pitch to get back the run the Cardinals scored in the bottom of the 5th. Busch Stadium moves a bit closer to destruction.

Update: Oswalt runs the count to 3-2 before striking out looking on a pitch at the knees. It's 4-1 Astros in the middle of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Two Hits by Oswalt
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Oswalt's hit the keystone combination, getting Grudzielanek on the hands, putting the leadoff batter on first. Roy's given up just 1 walk and 2 hit batters so far.

Update: Yadir Molina gets the first hit for St. Louis, dumping a single into short right field. Nunez is up with men on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Nunez grounds back to Oswalt, who can't pick up the ball cleanly. Oswalt throws wide of second, but the ump calls Molina out on a tag. The replay shows Everett missing the tag, but from the umpire's angle it looks like Everett got him. It's men on 1st and 3rd with one out. Rodriguez pinch hitting for Thompson.

Update: On a 3-2 pitch, Rodriguez hits a fly to center field to score Grudzielanek from third. It's 3-1 Astros.

Update: Eckstein strikes out to end the inning. The Cardinals make progress, but still need to score two runs with their 12 remaining outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Two Out Trouble
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Taveras singles, goes to second on a wild pitch then Berkman walks with two out in the fifth. That brings La Russa to the mound and a new pitcher out of the bullpen. For the third time in his career, Mulder won't get a win in an elimination game. Brad Thompson comes on in relief.

Update: Thompson gets Ensberg to pop out to end the inning. The Cardinals have 15 outs to get three runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Oswalt Dominates
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Roy Oswalt's continues to be unhittable through four. He's struck out four, keeping his defense out of 1/3 of the outs made. His pitch count is at 56, not bad through four innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Life in the Fast Lane
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Jason Lane hits a shot into the left field stands to give the Astros a 3-0 lead. Every run puts another nail in the Cardinals coffin. Not suprisingly, the Cardinals bullpen is busy in the fourth.

Correction: Fixed a typo.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Oswalt Does the Hitting
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A two hit by pitch is the only damage against Roy Oswalt in the third. The plunk of David Eckstein is the closet thing to a hit the Cardinals have in the game so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Attack
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Ausmus singles to left for the first hit of the game. Everett hits a slow roller between first and second. Pujols dives and misses, and Grudzielanek can't get the batter at first. The Astros have men on first and second with none out and Oswalt up.

Update: Oswalt sacrifices the runners over.

Update: Molina can't handle a wild pitch by Mulder and the Astros take a 1-0 lead.

Update: Biggio picks up the other runner with a single to left. The Astros go up 2-0.

Update: Taveras flies out for the 2nd out of the inning.

Update: David Eckstein makes a nice diving stop of a Berkman grounder to force Biggio at second and end the inning. The Cardinals find themselves in an early hole 2-0 in the middle of the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Second
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Mark Mulder gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the second, striking out Lane and Burke to end the inning. Just 20 pitches throught two for the left hander.

Update: Oswalt also gets the side 1-2-3 in the 2nd. The only difference between the two pitchers right now is the one walk issued by Roy. Each as allowed 0 hits while striking out 2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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David Eckstein leads off for the Cardinals and grounds out to his opposite number at shortstop.

Update: In an eerie reminder of game five, Edmonds walks to bring up Albert Pujols. The crowd goes wild.

Update: Pujols tries to check his swing on strike three, but his body has too much angular momentum and carries his bat through the strike zone.

Update: Walker grounds out to Ensberg to end the inning. Oswalt throws 15 pitchers, splitting them eight strikes and seven balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros-Cardinals Underway
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Biggio drag bunts the first pitch down the third base line, testing Nunez. Abraham makes a fine play, showing now signs of his injury. One out.

Update: Taveras grounds back to Mulder for the second out. A big difference between these two managers is that La Russa refuses to use an unproductive hitter in the two slot. He just starts the heart of his order a batter earlier.

Berkman grounds out to shortstop to end the inning. Mulder throws just six pitches, five for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Blogs
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Chad Finn is writing Touching All the Bases, focusing on the Red Sox. Check out his post on what he calls "The Idiot Trilogy."

Jake Brown is covering Chicago baseball at Addison to 35th - The Windy City Baseball Beat. Stop by and say hi, and be sure to check out his upcoming World Series coverage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 PM | Blogs | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
U Want a Piece of Me?
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Phillies Nation links to articles about Ugeth Urbina being involved in a machete attack.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Crime | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Moving to Miami
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Joe Girardi is the new manager of the Florida Marlins. The official announcement won't come until Thursday, so anything can happen.

I was very impressed with Joe as a catcher. The Rockies one great pitching season featured Girardi as the regular catcher. When Torre had a choice in the post season between Girardi and Posada, he usually went with Girardi's ability to call a game. I hope he does well in his new endeavor.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:09 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Cardinals face their second do or die game of the series, but this time they possess home field advantage. They send off-season acquisition and conspiracy theorist Mark Mulder against the lone gunman, Roy Oswalt.

Mulder twice pitched in elimination games, going 0-2 with a 3.18 ERA. He faced Roger Clemens on Oct 15, 2001 and neither pitched well. Both lasted just 4 1/3 innings, but two unearned runs hung the loss on Mark. On Oct. 6, 2002, Mulder got the call against the Twins and pitched great, striking out nine in seven innings, but Radke pitched better and a late comeback vs. Guardado wasn't enough. Mulder's only allowed 2 earned runs in two starts this post season, but an unearned run helped pin a loss on him in game 2 of this series. If he pitches that well again, the Cardinals have an excellent shot at a game 7.

Roy Oswalt allowed more earned runs hits post season (4), but he's allowed less hits than Mulder (11 to 16). He also out pitched Mark in game 2, allowing two fewer base runners. One problem for Oswalt in the playoffs is his control. In 2004, he walked eight batters in 19 1/3 innings. This year, he's walked five in 14 1/3. As we saw Monday night, a free pass to a Cardinal can set up a big inning.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mention In Newsweek
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Baseball Musings gets a mention in the latest issue of Newsweek (Oprah on the cover). It's in the checklist section.

CATCH the World Series and read game analysis and gossip at deadspin.com, baseball musings.com and baseball toaster.com (look for Mike's Baseball Rants). Batter up.

Thanks, Newsweek!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 PM | Blogs | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 7 PM EDT. Note that we're on an hour earlier than usual so as not to interfere with the baseball game. Come join me for a pre-game rundown!

You can also call in at 888-985-0555 and leave a question for the show, or stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Anderson On the Black Sox
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Just in case you don't subscribe to Times Select, you can read Dave Anderson's column on the 1919 Black Sox here.

I don't agree that the Black Sox hang over this franchise. It's been over 80 years. Everyone is dead. The park isn't even called Comiskey anymore. The scandal was important in that it changed the structure of the baseball management and forced the game to clean up its act. But there is no legacy of gambling handed down through the generations of White Sox players even though Angels fans might think someone paid off the umpires. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 AM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (1)
The Tony Pena Story
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Wright Thompson tells the soap opera tale of Tony Peña's summer.

The events leading up to that plane ride weren’t pretty. In the last few weeks before he resigned as Royals manager, Peña had trouble sleeping. What’s worse, he could barely eat, and anyone who’s ever seen the man at a table should have known right away something was wrong.

Most days, he had only a banana. The pounds slipped off, almost 20 in all. Players might later privately complain that he quit on them, but no one could ever say he didn’t care.

“It was ugly for him,” general manager Allard Baird said.

A storm was brewing in Kansas City when Peña left for his final road trip with the team. He’d had conversations with Royals officials about a local divorce case he was being called to testify in — he had allegedly been having an affair with a neighbor.

He’d been asking around, trying to gauge how big a deal it would be in the community. On its own, he might have weathered it. Coupled with the losses, it was too much. American League Manager of the Year in 2003, Peña was now captain of a sinking ship.

I thought the resignation was a face saving gesture. Sometimes bosses let employees quit because it doesn't look as bad as getting fired. But Peña really took that road on his own. It appears Tony did the right thing for his family and himself. He turned off his cell phones and got to know his children. He relaxed. And now he's involved with baseball again, working for the Royals on special assignments, and enjoying the game once more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Nunez to Start
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Abraham Nunez is ready to start at third base tonight for the Cardinals:

"Much, much better," Nunez said. "Best it's felt. I did everything in fast motion, as fast as I could, just to see how it felt. I wanted to put it in every situation to make sure it would be ready. I think that it is."

Further down in the article is a very interesting fact:

Of seven previous times the Cardinals have fallen behind 3-2 in a best-of-seven series, they have won the series six times.

That is a stunning break from the rest of baseball - which, minus the Cardinals' seven times, is 20-54 in series when trailing three games to two. The most recent time the Cardinals won after trailing 3-2 was in last season's NLCS, against Houston.

If teams are evenly matched, you would expect a team to come back from 3-2 25% of the time. The Cardinals have certainly beat the odds in their history.

Of course, the Cards have also been on the other side of the fence. They were up 3-1 on Atlanta in 1996 and lost the series. They were up 3-2 on the Twins in 1987 and lost the series. Still, a 6-1 record when down 3-2 is most impressive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Throwing the Best
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Brian McTaggart points out that unlike last year, Houston's best will be on the mound for the two games in St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Knowing Frustration
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John Lopez writes that the young Astros now know the frustration of the franchise:

When Roy Oswalt walked out of the dugout and onto the Minute Maid Park field before Game 5, the energy and buzz surrounding him was so thick, the question had to be asked.


Does he understand? He was asked if players, especially the younger ones, have talked about or grasped how long and frustrating a journey Astros fans have taken.

"Not really, no," he said. "I mean, we know this team has never been to the World Series. When you have so many young guys, you don't (think about it). I haven't heard anybody talk about it."

Today, Oswalt and all those younger players in the Astros' clubhouse have a much better understanding. The fact Oswalt is even having to pitch tonight in the National League Championship Series instead of Saturday in Chicago sends a resounding message.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Letters to the Editor
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The Houston Chronicle posts a number of excellent letters from Astros fans. Some can't watch anymore:

I didn't sleep much Monday night — lost in a flash of time that turned long-awaited ecstasy into swamping agony. Go Astros ... but forgive me if I can't bear to watch Game 6.

One was disappointed in the fans:

I am disappointed with the fans at Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. They all showed up with their "I BELIEVE" and 'I HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED" signs, and all was well as long as the Astros were winning. But when the team really needed the fans in the bottom of the ninth, these same people were not cheering on the Astros. They were dead silent.

But the most eloquent asks them to forget destiny:

It's time for these professional gentlemen of leisure to throw Destiny off a cliff. Give me Roy and Roger and the Killer B's and the points over destiny. The Astros are not "Destiny's team." Who needs Destiny? She's a poor, uncaring, witchy woman!
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 18, 2005
Joe vs. the Volcano
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Joe Torre will return to manage the Yankees next year:

``I still want to manage here and I am satisfied that George feels he still wants me as manager,'' the 65-year-old manager told reporters at news conference at Yankee Stadium today.

It's amazing to me that Torre lasted this long with Steinbrenner. In the first 20 years of George's ownership, he changed managers as often as Mickey Rooney changed wives. Often, the managers just didn't want to take anymore from the boss; that's pretty much what happened with Showalter. Torre's been at the helm for ten seasons and wants more. Working under King George for that long without being fired should qualify anyone for a place in the Hall of Fame.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | Management | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
More Steroids
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I guess Barry Bonds won't be training with Greg Anderson much over the winter. Anderson, along with Victor Conte and others were sentenced in the BALCO case:

Conte, who will spend four months in prison and four months in home confinement, started the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative, which, according to court records, counted dozens of prominent athletes among its clients, including Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Marion Jones and others. The case prompted pro sports to stiffen steroid policies and thrust performance-enhancing drugs into the spotlight. THG, a once-unknown steroid discovered in the investigation, is now banned throughout sports.

Conte pleaded guilty in July to money laundering and a steroid distribution charge; dozens of counts were dropped.

James Valente, BALCO's vice president, was sentenced to probation after pleading guilty to reduced charges of steroid distribution. Greg Anderson, Barry Bonds' trainer, was sentenced to six months after pleading guilty to money laundering and a steroid distribution charge. He must spend three months behind bars and three months in home confinement.

Anderson and Conte, who remain free on bond, are scheduled to surrender to prison authorities Dec. 1.

I wonder if Congress is going to pass a law that jails people for two years for selling steroids. It seems Congress wants to hurt the athletes more than the suppliers.

In related news, Felix Heredia was suspended for steroid use. I don't know when the test was administered, but given he's been recovering from aneurysm surgery, I wonder if he was using them to build his shoulder back to strength.

It seems that pitchers are getting caught as often as hitters. I guess PEDs are not just for sluggers anymore.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:14 PM | Cheating | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Stay of Execution
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Bernie Miklasz notes how the Cardinal rally may allow Busch Stadium to go out in fitting style:

Pujols must have known it wasn't supposed to end this way, not for the 2005 Cardinals, not for old Busch, not for their fans.

The lights of Busch weren't supposed to be turned off so soon.

The wrecking ball wasn't supposed to strike so suddenly.

The first blow to demolish Busch wasn't supposed to be triggered in Houston, on an apparent game-winning three-run homer off by Lance Berkman off Chris Carpenter in the bottom of the seventh inning, giving the Astros a 4-2 lead.

Berkman's HR traveled only 338 feet, but when it drifted over boards in left, it must have seemed as if a missile had landed at 250 Stadium Plaza in downtown St. Louis.

It wasn't supposed to go down like this, with the Cardinals coughing on their opportunities, going two for 12 in Game 5, and five for 34 in the NLCS.

The Cardinals were supposed to bring the NLCS back home, and keep Busch and their season going. They'd surely close Busch in style, or with a fight, by coming back to win the series, or by mounting a resilient last stand to hold the Astros off for as long as possible.

They get at least one more game at the old ballpark, one more chance for the fans to say good bye.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cool Neighbors
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Viva el Birdos showed great foresight last night:


jimmy walked, and the astros conferenced as albert's shadow darkened the mound. i looked up from the floor and dared to ask anthony and lisa, matter-of-factly: "how well do you guys know your neighbors?" "oh we know `em," lisa said, "they're cool." "so just in case something really exciting happens here and i start screaming like a madman, they're not going to call the cops or anything?" lisa: "no, they'll be fine. they've been hearing it all week from anthony because of the white sox."

excellent; licensed to shrill.

I must admit that I yelled when Pujols hit that ball. My wife and daughter came running to see what was the matter. It's not that I'm a particular fan of either team. It's just rare to see victory snatched from the jaws of defeat so dramatically. The 1986 Mets comeback in game six of the World Series was water torture. This was shock and awe. This was something to yell about.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
Team to Be Named Later
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Richard Roeper is looking for a tough-cool nickname for the White Sox.

How about, The Completions?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 17, 2005
Cardinals Win
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David Eckstein continues to be one of my favorite players. To quote Lisa Gray, short guys rule! David went two for four tonight and reached on an error. His hit with two out in the ninth helped bring up the power for the Cardinals. Edmonds had a great at bat, letting Lidge issue the walk rather than going after something Jim shouldn't hit. And Pujols didn't just hit a home run, he crushed the ball.

Lidge was not unhittable. He had allowed a .267 BA coming into the game after allowing a .223 BA during the regular season. He gave up two more tonight, one of them is still on the way to that full moon.

The Cardinals are in the same position they were last year, heading back to St. Louis down 3-2. The difference is this year they'll have to face Oswalt and Clemens. Wednesday is going to be a lot of fun.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Tavares faces Isringhausen. He grounds to Pujols, way right of the bag. Pujols has to slide to get the out.

Update: Vizcaino pinch hits. The defensive changes for Houston leave Biggio on the bench.

Update: Vizcaino grounds out to Pujols. Burke is up. Can he hit another big home run?

Update: Burke flies out to right. Cardinals win!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Lidge is on to close the game for the Astros. He faces John Rodriguez.

Update: Rodriguez strikes out.

Update: Mabry strikes out. It's up to Eckstein!

Update: David does it. He singles through the hole to keep the Cardinals hopes alive. Jim Edmonds up.

Update: Eckstein moves up to second, removing the force.

Update: Edmonds gets out of the way of a pitch! He has to take one for the team there!

Update: Edmonds walks. Pujols is up!

Update: Pujols swings at the first pitch, strike one.

Update: Pujols homers! He saved the best for last! What a shot! It was up on the train tracks! The Cardinals lead 5-4 and are still alive in the post season!

Update: Reggie Sanders strikes out. Can Houston come back again? They did it against the Braves. Can history repeat?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
Miscues
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It should be noted that the score difference in this series is five runs, as the Astros lead 17-12 as we head into the top of the ninth. The Cardinals have allowed 1 unearned run in each game. Without the miscues, this is likely an even series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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Jason Isringhausen is on to try to keep the lead at two.

Update: Lane flies out to center. One down.

Update: Ausmus grounds out to shortstop. Two down.

Update: Everett pops out to first to end the inning. The Astros need three more outs to win plane tickets to Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Eighth
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Gallo and Wheeler get the Cardinals in order in the 8th. St. Louis will have 8-9-1 in the ninth. They need to get someone on to reach Edmonds and Pujols.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Full Luna
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On the night of a full moon, Hector Luna makes a one-out error to allow Craig Biggio to reach in the 7th.

Update: Molina makes a bad play, but lucky for him the ball was foul. Foul, no harm. :-)

Update: Burke comes through with a hit and run single. The Astros have the tying run on third with one out and Berkman up.

Update: Berkman hits the first pitch from Carpenter the other way into the left field seats for a 4-2 Astros lead. The Astros big gun comes through where Pujols couldn't.

Update: Carpenter was around 110 pitches on that home run. Did La Russa stay with his ace too long? He's still in facing Ensberg.

Update: Ensberg hits the wall in left but Sanders makes a great throw and nails Morgan at second. Carpenter, however, is getting hammered right now.

Update: Lamb flies out to center to end the inning. The Cardinals have six outs to get two runs against the Houston bullpen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Keeping Andy
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Carpenter may have kept Pettitte in the game as he retires the 6-7-8 hitters in order in the sixth. We'll know in a minute.

Update: Pettitte stays in, and a high throw by Everett allows Eckstein to reach base leading off an inning again.

Update: Eckstein gets caught stealing on a pickoff. There's only so many times you can steal successfully on Andy Pettitte.

Update: An Edmonds foul pop hits a beam, and it's a dead ball. On the next pitch, Jim beats out an infield grounder when Lamb's foot comes off the bag. Qualls comes in to relieve Pettitte.

Update: Pujols grounds out to third. If the Cardinals win this game, it won't be with much help from Albert.

Update: Sanders rolls out to third. A busy inning for Ensberg. Cardinals still lead 2-1 in the middle of the 7th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
No Double
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Grudzeilanek singles leading off the 6th. The ball was down the left field line but bounced to Berkman who got Mark trying to stretch it into a double. Molina follows with a single as well. Pettitte is over 90 pitches and may be tiring.

Update: Pettitte gets out of the inning with no further damage. He's up to 96 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lane On!
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Carpenter makes a mistake and hits Lane leading off the fourth inning.

Update: Ausmus takes Lane's place on a grounder to third.

Update: Everett goes the other way, singling between first and second to put runners on 1st and 2nd for Pettitte.

Update: Pettitte sacrifices to put two runners in scoring position for Biggio. Craig is 2 for 2 tonight with Houston's only RBI.

Update: Biggio lines to Sanders to end the inning. I thought Sanders took a bad route, as the ball almost went over his head.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Inning
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Carpenter gets the heart of the Houston order in order in the third. He's thrown 37 of 53 pitches for strikes so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playing Hurt
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David Eckstein fouls a ball off his foot, walks around in pain, then dumps a ball into centerfield for a single. He's reached base in both innings he's led off.

Update: After a steal, Edmonds singles Eck to third. Runners on base for Pujols once again.

Update: Pettitte gets ahead of Pujols 1-2. He then strikes him out on a pitch down and in. Pujols takes strike one this time, and it was the best pitch he saw.

Update: Molina strikes out to end the inning. The Cardinals lead 2-1.

Update: Grudz was due. :-) He drops one into short right to plate two runs and the Cardinals have life again. Pettitte gets the tough hitters but gives up the two out single.

Update: Pettitte strikes out Sanders after Reggie had a great at bat. He worked the count to 3-2, but Pettitte got the best of him. Andy's doing a great job so far of getting out of his jam.

Update: Walker draws a walk. Grudzielanek is up. Mark's BA, OBA and SPCT are all .125 in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Finding the Lane
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Jason Lane rolls a ball between thrid and short to lead off the bottom of the second with a single. Ausmus follows with a double down the third base line. Carpenter's in a tough jam.

Update: Everett strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. I suspect Pettitte will squeeze.

Update: Pettitte swinging away, has a 1-2 count. Does that take off the squeeze?

Update: Burke strikes out to end the inning. But the Cardinals are in a hole once more.

Update: Pettitte grounds to first, and Pujols makes a throw home to Molina's right. Molina keeps spinning in that direction and catches Lane before he crosses the plate for the out. A great tag.

Update: Biggio delivers the key single, knocking in Ausmus with a hit to left. The Astros take the early lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Molina Doubles
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With Yadir having the only chance of representing the family in the World Series, he doubles to right center past the dive of Burke. He's on second with one out.

Update: Luna strikes out on a checked swing. It's up to Carpenter, and he grounds out to third to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 1st
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Craig Biggio gets on for Houston with an infield single up the middle. Grudzielanek did a good job getting to the ball, but he had no chance to throw out the second baseman.

Update: Burke bunts. It seems if you want your #2 hitter to bunt, you're better off with Taveras. Why waste Burke's power?

Update: Berkman walks on a 3-2 pitch. Men on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Great play by Luna to end the inning. He fields the ball and throws Lamb out from foul territory to end the inning. The Astros do work Carpenter, getting him to throw 20 pitches.
Update: Ensberg hits a nubber back to the pitcher for the 2nd out. Runners do advance, however, so I guess it was a productive out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals-Astros Underway
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Pettitte hits Eckstein to start the ballgame.

Update: Edmonds walks. Good start for St. Louis, finally setting up Pujols in the first inning.

Update: Pujols pulls a Jim Rice. The pitcher is wild, and he swings at the first pitch. Where Rice would ground into a double play, Pujols pops it up.

Sanders swings at the first pitch and flys out! Pettitte was wild, and these hitters are letting him off the hook!

Update: Walker swings at the second pitch and rolls a slow one down the first base line. Ausmus throws him out easily. The Cardinals blew a great chance to score by being impatient at the plate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cola Wars
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Fox keeps running the Pepsi ad with A-Rod and Vlad. Given the way the two performed in the post season, I'm surprised they haven't replaced it with Oswalt and Buehrle.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Astros try to extend their LCS home winning streak against the Cardinals to six tonight. This year, however, sweeping at home means a trip to the World Series.

The Astros send Andy Pettitte to the mound. Pettitte's pitched much better at the Juice Box, posting a 10-4 record and a 2.12 ERA. Pettitte had his bad post-season outing in game 1, so things are looking bright.

He will however, need to get past Chris Carpenter. Carpenter did not lose to the Astros this year, going 5-0 in six starts, including the playoffs.

You can't really blame the Cardinals starters in this series. They've allowed 7 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings for a 2.49 ERA. My feeling coming into the series that if the Cardinals starters were able to stay with the Houston starters, the St. Louis offense would win out. But Pujols and Nunez are the only two players to get on base consistently, and they're far apart in the lineup (especially if Nunez can't play). If the Cardinals can't put together three hits in a row tonight a few times tonight, they'll never see Busch Stadium again.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:51 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Low Offense Series
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What a poor offensive series by both teams. The Angels were amazingly bad, hitting just .175, drawing four walks in five games and slugging .266. A player would not last a week in the majors with those numbers. They did not set a record for post-season futility, however. The 1998 Texas Rangers hit just .141 in their ALDS series. The 1966 Dodgers managed a .142 batting average in the 1966 World Series. The record for LCS futility goes to the first ALCS loser, the 1969 Twins. They managed a mere .155 batting average against a great Orioles staff. (The 1969 Orioles would hit .146 against the Mets in the World Series, the third lowest batting average for any single post-season series.)

Chicago's .248 batting average seems low until you put it in historical perspective. From 1903 to 2004, there were 213 post season series. Eighty three saw winning teams with lower batting averages than Chicago's .248. The 1996 Atlanta Braves won the NLDS with a .180 BA, the lowest for a series winner. The lowest ALCS winner was the 1974 Oakland A's with a .183 BA. The World Series record belongs to the famous 1918 Red Sox, .186.

The average score of a game in this series was 4.6-2.2. Again, while 6.8 runs per game seems low, historically there are 70 series with a lower runs per game. In fact, the St. Louis-Houston series is currently at 6.5 runs per game. Of course, they don't have a DH.

Correction: Fixed a typo refering to the 1966 Dodgers in the 1966 World Series, not the 1996 Dodgers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Grief Stricken
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Alex Rodriguez's mother blames A-Rod's post-season slump on the death of her brother:

Lourdes Navarro said her son kept the Sept. 30 death of his uncle to himself because he was committed to helping his team win.

"I think he should speak with the team and tell them that his uncle, who was like his father because he raised him since he was 8, died in a hospital in Miami," Navarro told Listin daily newspaper.

I didn't think A-Rod hit that badly. He did get on base. He was disciplined at the plate. The balls he put into play just didn't fall in. Compared to Guerrero's playoffs, Alex was Babe Ruth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | League Division Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
October 16, 2005
Konerko Wins MVP
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It must have been really difficult for Jackie Autry to present Konerko with the MVP. Paul really deserved it. Lots is made of 9th inning home runs, but first innings home runs that put your team up early are also extremely valuable. Nice to see that recognized.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
The White Sox Win the Pennant!
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Jose Contreras pitches the fourth complete game for the White Sox as Chicago wins game five 6-3. I'll have to check, but I believe Ozzie only used five pitchers and 10 position players. Who needs a bench!

The White Sox just dominated the series. The pitched better, they hit better, they fielded better and they got better calls from the umps. Podsednik got on base, Konerko hit for power, Pierzynski was the good luck charm, and the four starters were invincible. For the first time in my life time (I was born in 1960), the White Sox are going to the World Series. Congratulations to the team, and White Sox are going to see something they haven't seen in 46 years, a World Series game in Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Contreras is out for the ninth. Erstad is up.

Update: Uribe makes a great play to field the ball and throw out Erstad at first. Two outs to go.

Update: Rowand makes the catch for the second out.

Will you tell the folks back home I nearly made it
Had offers but don't know which one to take
Please don't tell them how you found me
Don't tell them how you found me give me a break
Give me a break
Seems it never rains in Southern California
Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California
But girl, don't they warn ya
It pours man it pours

Update: It's up to Kotchman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:36 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
BB-Rod
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Frankie Rodgriguez walks the first two men in the top of the ninth. This isn't the way to keep your team close when the season is on the line.

Update: Bud Black's visit to the mound doesn't do much good as Konerko hits one the other way, pounding the right field wall for a double, an RBI and a two run White Sox lead.

Update: Nice stop on a very high pitch by Molina. The Angels need to get Rodriguez out of there if they're going to have a shot in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: The Yankees must be watching this series thinking, "How could we lose to these guys?"

Update: Rodriguez lives up to his nickname by striking out Everett. Of course, Molina drops the strike and has to thrown Carl out at first.

Update: A sac fly scores Dye from third, but the Angels get Konerko trying to advance to third. Not only has Guerrero's offense been lousy, but he's had no accuracy to his throws. That's the second time I've seen a throw to the plate go up the line to let a run scored. The Angels are down three going to the bottom of the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Contreras in the Eighth
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Jose comes out for the 8th inning and gets Cabrera to ground out to short for the first out.

Update: Anderson flies out to center. If Guerrero is going to get a big hit, now's the time.

Update: Guerrero weakly grounds out to second to end the inning on the first pitch. Contreras is barely over 100 pitches. Another complete game may be on the way.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Putting the K in Kelvim
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Escobar isn't letting his defense help him at all in this relief appearence. He's allowed a home run and two walks while striking out five. If he doesn't get Pierzynski here, he'll have to face Crede again.

Update: Escobar tries do to all the work himself again. Pierzynski grounds to Escobar, but Escobar tags him with the glove, but the ball's in his bare hand. The first base ump doesn't see it, and calls Pierzynski out. Guillen comes out and argues, the umpires confer and get the call right. Pierzynski gets first base on an error.

That's it for Escobar.

Update: K-Rod is on to face Crede with men on first and second with two out.

Update: Impressive running by Rowand. Going on a 3-2 pitch, he scores on an infield hit by Crede. Crede grounded it up the middle, Kennedy dove to stop it, but couldn't make a strong throw to the plate. The White Sox are now six outs away from a trip to the World Series.

Update: It pours, man it pours. Rodriguez walks Uribe to load the bases.

Update: K-Rod gets Podsednik to strike out. The Angels are lucky to be down by just one run after that inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
Watching the Count
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Contreras gets the Angels 1-2-3 in the 7th. He's still under 100 pitches, so there's no reason to pull him yet. I also find it funny that Hernandez was warming in the bullpen. Bringing in Orlando isn't really like going to the bullpen since he spent most of the year as a starter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Don't Tell 'em How You Found Me
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Kelvim Escobar enters the game in the 7th to face game 2 nemisis Joe Crede, and Joe hits it hard down the line again. This time, it carries farther, over the fence to tie the game at 3. Escobar is probably being underloved by the crowd right now.

Update: Kelvim strikes out the side. The walk and stolen base by Podsednik are for naught. The Angels need another run however, to send the series back to Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
All That Talk About Gratuities
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Jose Contreras has an easy sixth inning, retiring the side in order. He's up to 84 pitches, however, so we have a good chance of seeing the White Sox bullpen in this one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Astros In Control
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Houston won a close one this afternoon 2-1, taking a 3-1 lead in the series against the Cardinals. The big story appears to be the ejection of La Russa and Edmonds. The commenters said Edmonds really got in the face of the ump. I didn't notice anything horribly wrong with ball/strike calls early in the game. What did people think of Cuzzi's calls in that game. Did La Russa and Edmonds have a gripe, or were they just frustrated by the Cardinals inability to score?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
It Never Rains in California
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I get home just in time to see some more controversy. Figgins pulls a ball hard down the line, and a stupid fan reaches over and pulls the ball into the stands. The umpires, after an argument from Scioscia, let the runner at first score. Kennedy was running on the play, and would score easily if the play is allowed to continue. Good call for the Angels for a change. It's 2-2 in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: With Figgins on third after a ground out, Anderson (batting 3rd tonight) hits a long fly to right to score Chone and give the Angels a 3-2 lead. A nice comeback after falling behind in the top of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Open ALCS Game 5 Post
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My family and I are going out for the evening. You're welcome to leave comments and post updates in the comments section.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (21) | TrackBack (0)
Open NLCS Game 4 Post
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My family and I are going out for the evening. You're invited to comment on the game and post updates in the comments here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:05 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Fourth
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David Eckstein draws his 2nd walk of the game, and this time Edmonds doubles. Pujols has two runners on base this time.

Update: Pujols gives the Cardinals a 1-0 lead with a sacrifice fly to right. It seems the Cardinals are scoring a lot of runs on sac flies this series.

Update: That's their third of the series. So 30% of their runs score on sac flies. Larry Walker draws a base on balls to put runners on first and second for Sanders.

Update: Sanders strikes out in a very long at bat. It's up to Mabry to put more runs on the board.

Update: Mabry flies out to end the inning. Backe gets out of a tough spot without much damage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Mission: Control
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Jeff Suppan walks Burke and Berkman with two outs in the third. The Astros have their second opportunity with runners in scoring position.

Update: Ensberg grounds into a fielder's choice to end the inning. Suppan continues his good luck with runners in scoring position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Three Outs in the Third
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Backe continues to frustrate the Cardinals, retiring the side in order in the third. His walk to Eckstein is the only blemish on his day so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two Ks in the Second
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Backe is looking good through two innings. He strikes out two in the inning, bringing his total to three for the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:08 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bee Movie
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There are two Astros fans sitting behind home plate in Saturday Night Live bee costumes. I assume it's not Belushi and Radner.

The funniest bee sketch, of course, was from the second episode of SNL (when it was just called Saturday Night). Rob Reiner was hosting, and he was having dinner with then wife Penny Marshall in a resturant in which all the serving staff are bees. They're having some silly discussion when Rob, tired of the whole thing, says, "I feel like I'm in a B-Movie!"

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Testing the New Guy
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Biggio grounds hard to John Mabry to start the Astros' first. Mabry handles it well, throwing Biggio out at first.

Update: Burke lines out to center for the second out. Expect thos sort of thing all game as both pitchers depend on their defense.

Update: Berkman hits an easy roller to second for the third out. No hits through one inning in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:56 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals-Astros Underway
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Backe gets ahead of Eckstein 0-2, then loses him on four straight balls. Eck on first for Edmonds with the walk.

Update: Edmonds grounds into a double play. Once again, Pujols comes up with the bases empty.

Update: After missing the foul pole by a few feet, Pujols tries to check his swing and strikes out. A good start for Backe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sanders In
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Reggie Sanders is back in the St. Louis lineup this afternoon, batting in his usual 5th spot. Mabry is starting at third for Nunez and batting 6th. Grudzielanek is dropped to the eighth slot.

Burke starts in center again for the Astros. I don't really see this as being a positive for Houston. Unless you believe in the hot hand, Taveras is a better hitter and a better fielder.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Cardinals offense gets a chance to face a non-ace today as Brandon Backe host Jeff Suppan in game 4 of the NLCS. Backe is the type of high ERA pitcher the Cardinals offense thrived on in the NLDS. He's not overpowering, he doesn't have great control, and you can get a few extra-base hits off him. However, the Astros aces have been less than stellar in this series and the Cardinals haven't hit them well. Backe is facing an offense in disarry. He playing at home where he's been stellar this season. It's a day for Brandon to shine.

Jeff Suppan makes his first appearance of the post season. He's pitching on 20 days rest, which makes me wonder what's the longest rest a starter's ever had in the playoffs. Jeff's overall stats are very similar to Backe's. The big difference between the two pitches is that Suppan allowed a .230 batting average with runners in scoring position and Backe allowed a .270 average in that situation. Add to that the majority of Suppan's home runs were solo shots and you have the 1 run difference in ERAs.

The White Sox go for the pennant tonight in a rematch of game 1. Jose Contreras takes the mound against Paul Byrd. Contreras must be suffering a lot of teasing at the hands of his teammates as he's the only starter not to pitch a complete game. Contreras continued his great control of late. He hasn't walked a batter in three starts. Given the Angels ability to take pitches in this series, it's a good bet that streak will continue.

Byrd used his defense to keep the White Sox in check in game 1. He faced 24 batters, and 21 put the ball in play, resulting in just five hits. Byrd was especially good at home this year, as opponents posted a mere .281 OBA against him in Anaheim vs. .320 on the road.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1)
Resting the Pen
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The White Sox are not concerned about the lack of bullpen use in this series:

Turning too much strength into a psychological issue, Cooper has played mental games with his relievers. He has told them that no one will accept too much rest as an excuse and that whether they haven't pitched "in two minutes or two weeks, people will only ask, 'Do you or don't you get it done?'''

The great thing about getting complete games out of his pitchers is that Guillen isn't blowing them out to do it. Garcia threw 116 pitches, Garland 118 and Buehrle just 99. Whenever you go to your bullpen, you're trading a known for an unknown. Guillen is showing he knows his pitcher's limitations, and he's not afraid to go with his knowns late in a game.

I'm hoping Guillen's success will start to make managers question their automatic moves to setup men in the seventh and eighth inning. I also hope it will start to make them think about downsizing the pitching staff to 10 from the 11 and 12 we've seen recently. I'd like to see less role playing and better pitching.

It's too bad that McKeon is retiring, since he shared this "be efficient and finish" philosophy. It looks like it will live on Jack's former coach.


Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Spell Checking Nightmare
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The OC Register is running a blog during the games, although I saw only one update during last night's contest. Mark Saxon noted the boos the Angels were receiving from the fans, but also this note:

By the way, when Mark Buehrle is pitching to Pierzynski, it's a spellcheck nightmare.

I actually have those two down, but after all these years I still can't spell Grudzielanek without help. :-)

Update: And don't forget the confusing Tavarez/Taveras matchup!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Iron Guts
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John Lopez looks at Garner's lineup decisions yesterday. Garner makes an interesting observation about how some manage:

"I think there are people who maybe don't (make unorthodox decisions) because they don't like to take the heat," Garner said before Game 1 of the NLCS. "I don't like it, but I don't like the other side, either. I don't like if there was something I could have done to help us win the ballgame and didn't."

When Tom Glavine was at the top of his game in the 1990's, he would pitch much better against righties than lefties. Yet, managers would start 80% right-handers against Tom. I spoke to Ray Knight about this once. As to why Glavine was better against righties, Ray explained the movement of Tom's pitch was away from righties but into a lefty's hitting zone. He talked about left-handed pitchers who he couldn't hit for the same reason. I then asked him, given that, why managers didn't start left-handed batters against Glavine. Ray said that the managers didn't want to take the heat from the press if they lost using that strategy.

A couple of years later, Greg Olson, Glavine's former catcher, auditioned for Baseball Tonight. I asked him the same questions I asked Ray, and got nearly identical answers. It's quite possible that Tom owes his successful career to media pressure on managers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 15, 2005
Complete Game Win
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Kotchman grounds to Iguchi to give Freddy Garcia the complete game victory and the White Sox a 3-1 lead in the best of seven series. Chicago is just shutting down the Angels offense and getting plenty of their own. They're showing why they're the best road team in the AL.

Everything clicked for Chicago tonight. The pitching was great, the defense very good and the hitting excellent. They put 15 men on via a hit, walk or hit by pitch. The team hit for the cycle with a double, triple and two home runs. The White Sox are one win away from their first World Series since 1959.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Garcia is on to start the ninth and gets a grounder to short for the first out of the inning.

Update: Anderson strikes out. It's up to Darin Erstad to keep the game alive.

Update: Erstad singles past Konerko to extend the inning. Guillen comes out to the mound but leaves Garcia in the game.

Update: DaVanon runs for Erstad.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Podsednik Triples
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A good night for Podsednik as he triples in the 9th. He's 1 for 2 with three walks.

Update: Yan leaves Podsednik at third as he gets a strikeout and two flys to Guerrero to end the inning. The Angels need six runs and they only have three outs left.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Neighborhood
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Finley singles, then is safe on second as the umpire doesn't call the neighborhood play as Iguchi tries to turn the double play. Iguchi was clearly off the bag. I've seen players called out when the second baseman is standing over, but not touching the bag. Iguchi was behind the bag, nowhere near it. Good call.

Update: Garica gets out of the inning without allowing a run. Freddy's thrown 104 pitches and isn't scheduled to start again in this series. Will Guillen let him finish the game?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Can Yan?
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Esteban Yan is in to pitch the 8th for the Angels.

Update: Yan walks Everett.

Update: Rowand doubles. The White Sox have runners at 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Right now, it looks like Yan can't.

Update: A.J. strikes out. Yan could there.

Update: He can't against Crede. Joe grounds one down the line past Figgins at third to make the score 8-2. A double play ends the inning, but the Angels now have six outs to score six runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Garcia Keeps Rolling
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Another easy inning for Garcia in the 7th. He's at 90 pitches through seven.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New Pitcher
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Donnelly is on in relief of Shields.

Update: He walks Podsednik. Scott's walked more in this game (3) than the Angels have in the series (2).

Update: With one out, Podsednik steals second, although it looks like the umps missed another call.

Update: The bad call doesn't hurt as Donnelly gets out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Sixth
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Cabrera hits the ball as hard as he can, and he lines it right to Crede.

Guerrero grounds it into the hole, and Crede makes a nice diving play to get Vlad at first.

Update: Anderson strikes out and is thrown out at first when the ball's in the dirt. Garcia keeps his pitch count low.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Who Needs a Bullpen?
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Garcia is at 66 pitches (13 per inning) through five innings. At that rate, Guillen won't need to go to the pen tonight, either.

I love this. I hope starters all over are watching this. Be efficient and you'll finish what you start.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Santana Done
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Ervin Santana is done. He walks Podsednik and Iguchi hits a long fly ball to center for an out. Santana threw 88 pitches through 4 1/3 innings, walking three and only striking out two. Scott Shields takes the mound.

Update: Podsednik steals second after the first base ump misses a successful pickoff. That's three call in the White Sox favor this series.

Update: Podsednik scores on an Everett single. The missed pickoff hurts the Angels. It's 6-1 in the middle of the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Two-Out RBI
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Kotchman drives a double to the gap in left center to score Anderson from first. Molina then grounds out to end the inning. It's 5-2 White Sox after four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Guerrero Groundouts
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Vlad Guerrero grounds out to shortstop again. It seems to me he's chopping high pitches rather than upper cutting low pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ski Ball
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A.J. Pierzynski blasts a ball well over the centerfield fence to extend the White Sox lead to 5-1. It appears that Santana's magic is gone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
RBI for Everett
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Carl Everett drives in Dye as the White Sox take advantage of a bad throw to first. Everett is thrown out trying to advance to second on the throw, ending the top of the third with the White Sox leading 4-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Catcher's Interference
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Interesting replay. Pierszynski's glove got in the way of Finley's swing, which should be catcher's interference. As Finley was running to first, he was pointing that out to the ump, which is why he was doubled up. The Angels are hurt by another bad call.

Interstingly, Eddings missed a catcher interference call against the Angels early in the season. The catcher's glove was knocked down the third base line, but Eddings didn't call it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Angel On
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With one out Erstad draws the second Angels walk of the series.

Update: A fielding miscue by Freddy Garcia. Kotchman hit a nubber between third and the mound. Garcia threw it over the head of the first baseman to put runners on second and third in the second with one out.

Update: Bengie Molina drives the ball to center for a single and drives in one. Once again, the Angels take advantage of a bad defensive play. First and third for Finley.

Update: Iguchi starts a 4-6-3 double play on a grounder by Finley. It's 3-1 White Sox after two.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Easier Inning
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Santana walks one, but that's the only runner for the White Sox in the second. Ervin's already thrown over 50 pitches in his two innings of work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Garcia's First
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Garcia starts Figgins off with a swinging strikeout, then gets Cabrera to ground out to third on the first pitch. No one on for Guerrero.

Update: Guerrero hits the secnd pitch for a grounder to shortstop. I almost think Scioscia should tell his team not to swing until they have two strikes, just to make Garcia work a little bit. Garcia has a seven pitch first, tossing just one ball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox-Angels Underway
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Scott Podsednik draws a walk to start the game. Santana threw the last two balls by Molina.

Update: Santana is just wild. His pitchout was off, and he then hits Iguchi. The White Sox have ducks on the pond for Dye.

Update: Dye drives the ball deep to center. Both runners move up on the fly ball.

Update: Paul Konerko does it again. He takes a 3-2 pitch over the fence in left center, just a little short of where he hit it yesterday. The White Sox are off to a 3-0 lead.

The White Sox bunch their good hitters together at the top of the lineup, and it's paid off in the first inning for them all year, and especially the last two nights.

Update: Santana gets Everett and Rowand, but the damage is done. The Angels find themselves in an early 3-0 hole.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Win
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The Houston Astros take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS. Roger Clemens was not over powering today as he allowed six hits and two walks through six innings. The Cardinals could not take advantage of a less than perfect Rocket, however. The Astros kept the 1-2 hitters off base as they went 0 for 8. The broadcast noted that Pujols has now led off five times in this series. The Cardinals need to get runners on for Albert.

The Astros had a little Lamb today, as Mike had a double and homer to score and drive in two. He's hitting .375 for the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Not only does Lidge come in, but the Astros go with a better defensive team as well.

Update: Grudzielanek strikes out to start the 9th. The Astros relievers have faced seven batters and struck out four of them.

Update: Molina pops out foul to Berkman at first base.

Update: John Rodriguez is pinch hitting and gets ahead of Lidge 3-0.

Update: Rodriguez walks on four pitches, quieting the crowd. Mabry hits for Luna.

Update: Mabry takes three balls after falling behind 0-2. He takes the three-two pitch down the line in left for an RBI double (Rodriguez had taken second uncontested). It's up to Eckstein.

Update: Eckstein gets the bat on the ball but flys to Taveras in short centerfield. Lidge made it exciting, but gets the save.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:20 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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Julian Tavarez comes on in relief of Flores.

Update: Barbara Bush is scoring the game! Tavarez gives up a double, but that's it. Houston sends the 6-7-8 hitters against Lidge in the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Heart
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Qualls gets Pujols, Edmonds and Walker (on a nice play by Everett) for an easy eighth inning. Three more outs and the Astros take a 2-1 series lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:08 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 7th
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Burke leads off the Astros seventh with a single. That chases Thompson.

Update: Randy Flores comes on to relieve.

Update: Flores gets Berkman but walks Ensberg. Runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out for Lamb.

Update: Lamb lines into a double play to end the inning. The Cardinals have six outs to score two runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Qualls in the 7th
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Qualls enter in relief of Clemens, and strikes out Luna to start the 7th.

Update: Qualls gets the side in order, striking out Taguchi to end the inning. Once again, Pujols will lead off an inning. Seems like he's always up with the bases empty.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lamb Blasted
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Mike Lamb doubles onto the berm in centerfield with one out. The Astros have the go-ahead run n scoring position, a tough situatuion for them this post season.

Update: Maybe they're the killer L's. Lane singles to right center to drive in Lamb and give the Astros a 3-2 lead.

Update: Ausmus singles to right. Lane goes for third, and Walker makes a strong throw to try to nail Jason. Nunez comes off the bag to take the throw and collides with Lane. Nunez is on the ground hurt.

Update: It looks like Lane got Nunez on the glove hand and the leg. Nunez had to be helped off the field with a man supportng him on each side. He was visably limping. The Cardinals are now down two starters in this series.

Update: La Russa makes a double switch as Luna plays third and Thompson comes on to pitch.

Update: The injury costs the Cardinals a run. On a bouncer to Luna, Hector throws the ball home, but air mails it to the backstop. The Cardinals do get an out as Ausmus is thrown out trying to go to third on the play.

I though Luna had a shot at a 5-4-3 double play.

Clemens is out, Palmeiro is pinch hitting. The score is 4-2 Astros.

Update: The hits keep coming. Palmeiro bloops one to short center to put men on 1st and 2nd with two outs.

Update: Luna makes a diving stop on Biggio and throws Craig out to end the inning. Hector saves a run there. He'll lead off the 7th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 6th
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Pujols starts the inning off with a single.

Update: Edmonds singles to center and Pujols aggressively makes third basel. A good throw would have had him.

Update: Pujols' base running pays off as Walker hits a fly ball to deep center. The Cardinals second run scores on their second sac fly. It's 2-2 in the 6th.

Update: Grudzielanek flies to short center for the second out.

Update: Molina singles to center to put runners on 1st and 3rd with two out for Nunez.

Update: Clemens has only one strikeout so far. The balls in play are starting to cost him.

Update: Nunez rolls a ball down the line that Ausmus fields for the third out. Clemens is close to 100 pitches through six innings. Morris is at 73 through five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Making Head Lines
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Biggio hits a liner up the middle that just misses Morris' head. Craig on at first with one out.

Update: Biggio's hit is it. Pujols leads off the top of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Single
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Molina leads off the fifth with a hit.

Update: Lamb dives for a Nunez grounder. The ball goes off Lamb's glove and both runners are safe.

Update: Morris bunts the runners into scoring position for David Eckstein. Eck hit .373 with runners in scoring position this year.

Update: Fly Ball A for Eckstein as he advances both runners with a sac fly to right. It's 2-1 Astros, Taguchi up.

Update: Taguchi gives the ball a ride to right, but Lane catches it at the wall. Clemens looks like he's having problems on the mound. He'll have to face the heart of the Cardinals order in the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Oh Those Base on Balls
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Ensberg walks leading off the fourth, then Lamb drives a ball over the left field wall for a 2-0 Astros lead.

Update: No more damage against Morris. The Cardinals are coming up in the top of th fifth trailing 2-0. We'll see if Clemens gets his control back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pujols Goes Deep
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Albert Pujols hits the ball 403 feet. Unfortunately, the wall is 404 feet in left center, and Burke goes back to make the catch.

Update: Edmonds walks and steals against Clemens with two out.

Update: Larry Walker can't swing the bat, and Roger falls behind Walker 3-0.

Update: Walker draws the base on balls on four pitches. Is the hamstring bothering Roger?

Update: Grudzielanek runs the count to 3-2, then grounds out to second to end the inning. The Cardinals did work him for 28 pitches in the inning, running his total to 64 through four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:20 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Clemens Singles
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Roger Clemens gets a one-out single in the bottom of the third. Roger had a higher batting average than his opponents this year, and he has as many hits as the Cardinals today.

Biggio follows with a single to right. The Astros have runners on 1st and 2nd with one out for Burke.

Update: Burke knocks Matt Morris' glove off with a liner, but Grudzielanek picks up the ball and gets the force at second.

Update: Molina tries to pick off Burke. The ump called him safe, but the ump blew the call. He's pretty clearly out on the replay.

Update: Morris strikes out Berkman looking on a 3-2 count. Lance tried to sell a ball to the ump to starting to first, but the pitch wasn't close to being a ball.

Once again, the Cardinals starters are hanging with the superior Houston pitchers. At some point, you have to expect the better St. Louis offense to emerge.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3rd
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Abraham Nunez made Clemens work, but Rogers still retires the side in order. He's going after batters, as 26 of his 36 pitches have gone for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:02 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
One of Each
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Matt Morris retires the side in the second with a fly, grounder and strike out. Both hurlers have pitch counts in the low 20s through two.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Clemens Can't Cover
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Walker grounds out to the first baseman, but Clemens fails to cover. Lamb beats Walker to the bag, if Larry were healthy, I think he would have beat it out.

Clemens gets two more ground outs to end the inning. Lots of ground balls so far today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Morris on the Mound
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Biggio works the count to 3-1, then grounds out to third to start the Astros' first.

Update: Two batters, two ground outs as Burke hits to the short stop.

Berkman follows with a first pitch single. Bottom of the first like the top of the first with a two-out single.

Update: Ensberg hits a slow roller to third, but Nunez throws him out. Three ground ball outs for Morris in the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals-Astros Underway
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David Eckstein pops out to short left to start the game.

Update: Taguchi makes Clemens work a bit, but ends up striking out.

Update: Pujols takes a 2-2 pitch up the middle for the first hit of the game.

Update: Edmonds grounds out to second on the first pitch. All year long, Clemens has not gone deep in games. The Cardianls shouldn't swing at the first pitch unless it's really phat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
He's So Taguchi
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Fox is scrolling the starting lineups for the Cardinals-Astros game, and Reggie Sanders is out. So Taguchi is batting second, and Edmonds is moved down to fourth, and everyone else moves down one space in the order.

Chris Burke is starting instead of Taveras for the Astros.

Update: Molina and Nunez are flipped in the Cardinals as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's a late afternoon start in Houston as the Astros and Roger Clemens host the Cardinals and Matt Morris. Clemens made four starts against the Cardinals this season, and Houston lost three of them. Only one was a truly outstanding start, his seven shutout innings in the game Mulder won in 10. Roger did not strike out many Cardinals this season, amassing just 13 K in 24 innings, 4.9 per 9. No Cardinal took him deep this year, however.

Matt Morris is a pitcher the Astros should be able to hit. His strike outs are way down from his stellar 2002 season. The Astros can put the ball in play against Matt, and hope that good things happen like they did on Thursday. Matt also has a tendency to give up home runs, although he cut down compared to last year.

It looks like Reggie Sanders is going to play tonight.

In Anaheim, the Angels will try to find a way to score run against Freddy Garcia. The new father will face Ervin "Magic" Santana. Garcia walked four in his five innings against the Red Sox in game 3 at Fenway. The Angels might want to take a look at Boston's approach, since they've only drawn one walk in the series. Get ahead, and get the opposition on the defensive seems to be the motto of the White Sox pitchers. The Angels hitters are all to eager to help.

Including the post season, Santana is on a five game winning streak. He does need help from his teammates, however, as his 3.66 ERA during that time isn't exactly low. He's allowed just 2 home runs in the streak while striking out 25.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Theo Negotiates
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There was a report in the Boston Globe that the Red Sox and Theo Epstein are far apart in money and years as they work out a new contract.

So?

I'm always amazed that reporters don't understand contract negotiations. The article spends time speculating on what Theo might be asking for, what the ownership might be offering, and what other GMs make. My guess is that Theo asked for a salary near the top of the range of GMs ($2 million). The Red Sox low balled him with Chuck LaMarr ($750,000). Now, LaMar was payed that much, not because he was good, but because he was in the job a long time. Theo knows the Red Sox finances well. The Red Sox know what kind of job Theo is capable of doing. On Oct. 31st they'll split the difference and Theo will get around 1.4 million. There's no reason to sign before the deadline for either side. They'll each see who blinks first.

By the way, I like this paragraph:

Public information on GM salaries is sketchy. The Sox were prepared to make Beane the highest-paid GM in baseball history, though the cerebral Beane, working under far greater payroll constraints in Oakland than Epstein, has yet to win a World Series. His team fell short of a playoff berth for the second straight season this year after four straight seasons in which the Athletics averaged 98 wins and won three division titles and a wild-card berth.

(Emphasis added.) I don't think of Beane as cerebral. Beane's a great salesman who knows the value of the goods he's trading. He's a smart guy, but he pays people around him to be cerebral.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 14, 2005
Three Outs to Go
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The White Sox don't score in the top of the 9th. They need three outs to take a 2-1 lead and regain home field advantage.

Update: Garland is in to start the ninth.

Update: Podsednik races in to catch a short fly to left by Figgins. One out.

Update: Cabrera flies out to deep center for the second out.

Update: Guerrero swings at the first pitch and lines out to right. Garland faces three over the minimum as we see the first back-to-back complete games in the playoffs since 1997.

Who needs a bullpen! I love to see starters finish what they start. The relievers threw just 2/3 of an inning in this series. The Angels help a lot, swinging early, and the Sox pitchers are getting the first pitch over.

The top four hitters got in gear tonight, going 8 for 15 with five runs scored and four RBI. It's an all-around win for the White Sox, and they lead the series 2-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Three More Outs
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Another 1-2-3 inning for Garland. He's faced just 27 batters through eight innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Gregg Tires
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Dye walks and Konerko follows with a single to right to put runners on first and third with no outs. Donnelly is coming in to try to put out the fire in the eighth. The White Sox 1-4 hitters are now 7 for 13 with two walks.

Update: Donnelly strikes out Everett.

Update: Rowand grounds into a double play to end the inning. The Angels have two innings to score three runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUU
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Lou Piniella just chided the Angels for only drawing one walk in this series. Good for Piniella. It's not even that they're not drawing walks, they're swinging early, not even letting the pitcher get himself in trouble. Garland tonight is through seven, and he's only thrown 91 pitches. That's just 13 an inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
K is for Kevin
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Kevin Gregg strikes out the side in the seventh. Still 5-2 White Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Orlando Blooms
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Orlando Cabrera drives in Adam Kennedy with a two-out home run down the line in left. He hit eight during the regular season. That makes the score 5-2 in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Garland comes back to strike out Guerrero to end the inning. That's six K through six innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Gregg Shorthand
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Kevin Gregg replaces Lackey to start the sixth inning. He strikes out a good number of batters, 52 in 64 1/3 innings, but allowed a 5.04 ERA. It seems when the batters put the ball in play vs. Gregg it tends to fall for a hit.

Update: Gregg has an easy inning, getting the side 1-2-3 without a strikeout.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Jon Show
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All the rest given Jon Garland by the sweep of the Red Sox sure seems to be helping him tonight. He retires the side in order in the fifth. He's faced just 16 batters, striking out five. He thrown just 60 pitches, 41 for strikes and is simply dominating the Angels.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Three for Konerko
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Paul Konerko singles to center to drive in Iguchi. Tadahito doubled earlier to run his game to 2 for 2 with a sacrifice.

The White Sox 1-4 hitters are six for 10 with a walk and a sacrifice. Half of those hits were for extra-bases. They've scored all five runs and driving in four.

The White Sox, unlike the Angels, bunch their good hitters together. Tonight you're seeing the fruit of that strategy. It's 5-0 Chicago in the middle of the fifth. Lackey is up to 83 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Foot Ball
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Guerrero hits Garland in the foot with a comebacker to the mound. Vlad is on first with a two out single. It's Garland's right foot, the one he uses to push. Anderson grounds out to end the inning.

Garland's being efficient, throwing just 49 pitches through 4 innings. At this rate, the White Sox may set a record for fewest relief innings in an LCS. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Fourth
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Lackey has an easy inning for a change, getting the White Sox in order in the top of the fourth. He throws just seven pitches, and his total is 69 through four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Broken Bat
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Steve Finley just grounded out after breaking his bat. For the second time in this series, I heard a bat break and it sounded like metal, like an aluminum bat. Any audio experts know what I'm hearing? Is the bat hitting part of the catcher's gear?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lackey in Trouble Again
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Iguchi singles and Dye walks to start the third inning for the White Sox Konerko is up again with more men on base. Lackey hasn't gotten an out in the third, and he's over 50 pitches.

Update: This time Lackey wins the battle, getting Konerko to strike out swinging. However, Everett bloops a single into left down the line, driving in Iguchi for a 4-0 Chicago lead.

Update: Rowand lines into a double play. Lackey's at 62 pitches through three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Erstad Out Of Gas
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With two out in the bottom of the second, Darin Erstad doubles into the right field corner. The problem was, Darin thought he tripled. There was a good relay to Iguchi, and a great thrown by Iguchi to nail Erstad at third.

When the broadcast showed him going around second, I thought, "He's running too slow. He's not going to make it." Whatever speed Darin had, it was gone by the time he reached second base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Working Lackey
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The bottom of the White Sox order only got one hit, but they made Lackey throw over 20 pitches in that inning, bringing his game total up to 39 for two innings. Twenty eight of those are strikes (including the hanging breaking balls).

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom O' the First
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Chone Figgins starts the Angels with a walk. Garland doesn't walk many, and the Angels don't walk much, so that was an unusual way to start the inning.

Update: That was the first walk of the series for the Angels. Garland comes back and strikes out Cabrera on an 0-2 count.

Update: Vlad hits a slow chopper up the middle. Icughi gets it on the shortstop side of second, steps on the bag for the force, and fires to first to complete the double play. The walk is for naught. White Sox lead 3-0 at the end of one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox-Angels Underway
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Lackey gets ahead of Podsednik 0-2, but then gives up a single to right.

Update: Iguchi uses up the first out of the game, bunting Podsednik to second.

Update: Jermaine Dye doubles into right center, and the White Sox take a quick 1-0 lead.

Update: Everything's hanging for Lackey in the first inning. He does it on a 3-2 pitch to Konerko and Paul blasts it out of the park, over the 387 mark. It's 3-0 White Sox.

Update: Lakey gets two more outs to end the inning. The White Sox score three in the inning after scoring four in the previous 18.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Safest Man in the House
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It looks like Doug Eddings has two security guards on the field near his position in foul territory. Little does he know they're Angels fans. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Audio Biggio
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AOL Sports Bloggers Live interview Craig Biggio today for next Mondays' show. You can can listen now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 PM | Interviews | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MachA's Back
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Ken Macha is going to manage the Athletics after all.

The A's announced that the club reached a three-year agreement that will keep Macha under contract through the 2008 season.

Not much detail here as to what was keeping the sides apart or how they resovled the issue. Maybe Ken looked at the other jobs available and decided there's no place like home. Nick Swisher was happy Ken's coming back:

"It's good to have him back," right fielder Nick Swisher said in a phone interview from his home in West Virginia. "Macha's a great manager and he knows the game. I'm excited for next season to get started. Billy knows what he's doing. Just like everyone else in this organization, he's always going to push us in the right direction."

Without any winter moves, the roster should be pretty much the same, a young set of players a bit more mature. They should be getting better.


Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Angels Musings
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Be sure to check out chronicle of the lads for the news you need to know about the Angels in the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 AM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Dugout
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Remember to watch The Dugout for Astros commentary. Lisa Gray usually has tickets for the big games, so watch for her take from within the Juice Box.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The ALCS moves to sunny California as the White Sox face the Angels in game 3. Jon Garland gets his first start of the post season, facing the Angels' John Lackey. At age 25, Garland pitched a career year, going 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA, a run below his career average. The big step forward for Jon was in the walks department. Through 2004, Garland averaged 3.7 walks per 9 innings. In 2005 he cut that down to 1.9. He doesn't strike out many, just 4.7 per 9 in 2005, so it's a good matchup for the Angels. Both like to put the ball in play.

John Lackey is the ace of the staff with Bartolo Colon on the sidelines for the series. Despite giving up just 3 runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Yankees, Lackey didn't pitch all that well. He walked 9 and struck out 9 in two games, hardly a dominating performance. He's well rested for this game, however. During the season he had good luck with the White Sox. In three starts he posted a 2.57 ERA and a 2-0 record. He only struck out 11 in 21 innings, but he kept the ball in the park, allowing just one home run.

And of course, you want to tune in just to see how the crowd reacts to Doug Eddings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Tough Time to Pitch
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Mark Mulder sums up why it's tough to win in October:

"This is playoff baseball," Mulder said. "There's a reason why I'm 3-3 in my career in the playoffs. Runs are at a minimum. You've really got to pitch well, and that's how it goes sometimes. There's not going to be a lot of runs scoring in the playoffs."

Teams usually have to be great at one part of the game to make it to the playoffs. All four of the remaining teams have great pitching. Runs should be scarce the rest of the way. That's why a poor defensive game like the one the Cardinals played last night is so damaging.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sore All Over His Body
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Reggie Sanders' one great post season was dealt a set back last night:

When Reggie Sanders nearly landed on his head in pursuit of an eighth-inning triple by Adam Everett, he was shaken and had to leave. Call it symbolic. The hottest and mightiest Cardinal of the 2005 postseason departed on wobbly legs with lower-back pain.

And with right fielder Larry Walker aching all over and completely ineffective so far this postseason and with Jim Edmonds yet to make an impact as a hitter in the NLCS, the Cardinals can't afford to have their Mr. October become Mr. November — as in Sanders' Superman streak is over for the month.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa described Sanders' spill as a "train wreck ... he's got sore spots all over his body. He's bruised all over his body."

La Russa said Sanders is "50-50" for Game 3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Home Runs and Steroids
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Arthur Devany publishes research to dispute the notion that steroids led to greater home run hitting. I have not had time to read through the paper, but I'll have more comments when I do. Thanks to Robert Tagorda for the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Cheating | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 13, 2005
Changing Signals
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It appears that Doug Eddings is going to change his signals:

The umpire who made the controversial dropped third strike call in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series said yesterday he "absolutely" made the right call, but admitted he was wrong in the manner in which he called it.

"I think I've got to change my mechanic a little," Doug Eddings said upon arriving at John Wayne Airport in Santa Ana, Calif. Eddings' raised, clenched fist for a strike call is similar to a traditional out call. "That's why I feel bad. I should have given a safe sign."

Eddings admitted he called a dropped third strike more emphatically earlier in the game.

That's better than what he said in the press conference last night. I wonder why there are no standards for how an umpire calls a strike?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 PM | Umpires | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Earn a Split
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A good pitching duel between the starters. Both struck out six. Mulder gave up three more hits, but two of those came on poor defensive plays with Taveras batting. Defense hurt the Cardinals tonight. Grudzielanek, Edmonds, Eckstein and Sanders all made poor plays. When you're going up against Oswalt, you can't afford to be giving up base runners.

On to Houston for game three on Saturday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 9th
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Marquis gets the side in the top of the ninth. The 6-7-8 hitters are up for St. Louis in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: Grudzielanek pops out to left.

Update: Nunez gets the first hit off Lidge, a one-out single.

Update: Nunez moves up to second.

Update: Molina strikes out. Mabry pinch hits.

Update: Mabry grounds out to end the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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Lidge is in and gets Pujols to fly out and Walker to strike out to start the inning.

Update: It's 1-2-3 in the 8th for Lidge as he strikes out Taguchi as well. The Astros are three outs away from earning home field advantage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Eighth
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Julian Tavarez takes over for Mulder.

Update: Berkman takes Tavarez down the right field line for a lead off double.

Update: Ensberg grounds to short, leaving Lance at second.

Update: Lane does the same thing.

Update: Tavarez throws the ball past Molina, and Berkman goes to third.

Update: Burke ends the RISP slump with a single to drive in Berkman. The insurance run puts the Astros up 3-1.

Update: I don't know what happened to Sanders on that play. Everett hits a long drive to the track in left. Sanders leaped, and the ball went off his glove. Sanders then flailed in the air and came down on his behind and head. It looked very strange.

It's 4-1 with Everett on third, and Sanders is out of the game for Taguchi.

Update: Ausmus lines out to end the inning. Tavarez plays the arsonist well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
More Air for Yadier
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With one out in the 7th, Molina gets his second ground rule double of the game. He hits it over Burke's head, and it bounces into the bullpen. John Rodriguez is pinch-hitting for Mulder.

Update: Rodriguez walks. Oswalt may be getting tired as he's near 100 pitches, but Qualls just started warming in the pen. Hickey goes out to the mound to stall for time.

Update: Eckstein flies out, leaving runners at 1st and 2nd. Jim Edmonds is up. It looks like Oswalt is staying in the game.

Update: Edmonds grounds out to first on the first pitch. Oswalt bends but doesn't break.

I just realized I should be rooting for a Cardinals-Angels series, so I can see Oswalt hit Kennedy in the head. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Oswalt Singles
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With two outs, Roy Oswalt singles. He's reached twice tonight, once on a walk. Roy's not that good a hitter. With Mulder well over 100 pitches, I think he's probably tired. Yet, he stays in the game after Biggio singles to center.

Update: Taveras grounds out to second to end the inning. The Astros still don't have a hit with runners in scoring position in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
You Can't Stop Pujols, You Can Only Hope to Contain Him
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Albert Pujols launches a pitch over the left field wall to put the Cardinals on the scoreboard. It's 2-1 Astros in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Oswalt retires the rest of the lineup in order. The Astros are holding on to a one-run lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Edmonds' D
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Edmonds makes up for his strikeout with a diving play on a long hit into right center by Morgan Ensberg. With Berkman at first, he might have save a run there. Lane is up in the 6th.

Update: Lane strikes out swinging. That's five for Mulder.

Update: Burke grounds out to first to end the inning. Mulder is at 100 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yadi Gets Some Air
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With one out, Yadier Molinda bounces a double into the seats in right center. Mulder is indeed batting.

Update: Oswalt doesn't fool around with breaking balls and strikes out Mulder.

Update: Eckstein works the count to 3-2 and draws the walk. First and second with two out for Edmonds, who strikes out often against Oswalt, including one tonight.

Update: Edmonds works the count to 3-2, and Oswalt gets him with a perfect strike at the knees. Jim is left looking, and the Cardinals leave two on base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ausmus Drives
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Brad Ausmus leads off the fifth with a double to deep center. Edmonds was playing shallow and couldn't get back to catch the drive.

Update: Oswalt's bunt puts Ausmus at third with one out.

Update: Biggio hits a slow roller, grounding out but driving in Ausmus. The Astros lead 2-0, and stil don't have a hit in the series with runners in scoring position. It just show that particular statisic doesn't always tell the story.

Update: No more damage as Taveras grounds back to Mulder. The bottom of the order is due up for the Cardinals. Mulder is at 84 pitches through five innings. Does La Russa pinch hit for Mark at this point? The truth will be out there in a few minutes. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sanders in Scoring Position
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Ensberg dives for a Reggie Sanders grounder. He tries to make the throw but it ends up going into the dugout to Sanders at second. It's a hit and an error.

Update: Grudzielanek grounds out to end the fourth. Oswalt has a two-hitter going.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Burke Out
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Mulder gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the top of the fourth. Kudos to the big lefty for not allowing a hit to Chris "Babe" Burke!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
End of Three
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One third of the game is gone and Houston is holding on to a 1-0 lead. Mulder is being worked, with 58 pitches through three innings. He's struck out three and walked two, one of those to the opposing pitcher. He's also given up the only extra-base hit of the game.

Oswalt is pitching better, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out three. He's averaging just 15 pitches an inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Taveras Two for Two
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Taveras hits the ball hard to Eckstein in the hole, and the ball eats up David. Taveras is two for two tonight, but both hits come on poor fielding plays.

Update: Berkman drives the ball to deep left center, where Edmonds tracks it down.

Update: Molina takes a low pitch and throws out Taveras. Ensberg flies out to Walker to end the inning. Runners were only 2 for 10 trying to steal against Mulder during the regular season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Small Controversy
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Once again, Mark Grudzielanek makes a mistake. He makes contact and shatters his bat. He starts toward first and stops as Oswalt makes the play. He claimed the ball hit him in the foot, and the replay shows it does. But I think heading to first indicated to the ump a fair ball, and he's called out.

Oswalt gets the side in order in the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Extra-Base Burke
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Chris Burke triples with one out in the top of the second inning. Aggressive base running as Burke is almost thrown out. The throw beats Burke, but Chris beats the tag. That's three consecutive extra-base hits for Burke, and his fourth hit this post-season is a double.

Update: Everett grounds out, failing to advance Burke. They're walking Ausmus to pitch to Oswalt.

Update: Yadir Molina fails to catch the pitch and Burke scores from third to give the Astros a 1-0 lead. Ausmus was running and gets a stolen base. For some reason, Mulder isn't going straight after Oswalt, and walks him on four pitches. Unbelievable.

Update: Mulder was throwing breaking balls to Oswalt, but starts Biggio with a fast ball for strike one.

Update: Biggio strikes out swinging. The Astros take a 1-0 lead but for the second inning in a row are 0-2 with runners in scoring position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lauding Lane
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David Eckstein sends a dying line drive into right field, where Jason Lane makes an excellent sliding catch for the first out in the bottom of the first.

Update: Edmonds goes the opposite way for the Cardinals' first hit, a line drive by Ensberg into left.

Update: Pujols grounds to shortstop, but Edmonds is on the move so the Astros can only get the out at first. Larry Walker is up.

Update: The appropriately named Larry Walker takes ball four. Reggie Sanders is up.

Update: Sanders grounds out to end the inning. Both pitchers were worked decently. Mulder threw 20 pitches, 13 for strikes. Oswalt's pitch count was 23, also with 13 strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros-Cardinals Underway
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Craig Biggio works the count to 3-2, then singles to left to start the game. It's Biggio's first hit against Mulder in 15 at bats.

Update: A big error by Mark Grudzielanek. He fails to cover first on a bunt, and Taveras is safe. The Astros were giving away an out, and the Cardinals failed to take it.

Update: Berkman chases a ball out of the strike zone for strike three.

Update: Ensberg bounces back to the pitcher for a double play. The Astros are now 0 for 8 in the series with runners in scoring position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Post Game Podcasts
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Outsider Radio is putting together a post-game podcast after each day of the playoffs. It sounds like a good show to download for your morning drive to work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Verse of It.
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The Bard puts The Call in rhyme.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Random Evil Player
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Thinking about this post, I'm surprised Topps doesn't have a program that randomly generates the card numbers for players. It's not difficult to write. Click here to generate a list of card numbers for 2005 players. The random evil player is cited above the table.

Update: If anyone gets Tyrell Godwin or Jesus Colome as their Random Evil Player, let me know.

Update: I just got Ryan Church!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:14 PM | Mechandising | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Game two of the NLCS gets underway tonight with Roy Oswalt of the Astros facing Mark Mulder of the Cardinals. Oswalt had a poor season against the Cardinals. His only win came when St. Louis had wrapped up the division and home field advantage. Home runs were the key to the Cardinals success against Roy. Three of the 18 home runs he allowed were to St. Louis.

Unlike Pettitte, Oswalt was not stellar down the stretch. Excellent games against the Cardinals, Brewers and Phillies were punctuated with poor starts versus the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers. When it mattered, the Cardinals had Roy's number. Keep your eye on the Edmonds/Oswalt matchup, however. Roy's struck Jim out 15 times in 35 at bats.

Mulder started four times vs. the Astros and pitched well in three of the four games. His ten inning shutout of the Astros vs. Roger Clemens was one of the highlights of the season. One reason for Mulder's success vs. the Astros is that Houston has the lowest batting average and on base average vs. lefties in the NL, and they were 13th in slugging vs. south paws.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Card of Evil
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This is one of the funniest things I've read in a while (scroll down to the second section):

Book it now: Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez will be card No. 666 in the 2006 edition of Topps Total baseball cards.

Topps officials acknowledge that the employee who assembles the company's card checklists is a Yankees fan who assigns the undesirable number to the pitcher or player on the team that knocks the Yankees out of the playoffs.

That's why Red Sox reliever Keith Foulke, who got the last out of the 2004 ALCS, was number 666 in 2005 Total, and why the Florida Marlins' Josh Beckett of Spring, who beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series finale, was 666 in the 2004 set.

I wonder who gets it if the Yankees win?

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:09 PM | Mechandising | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Pattern Recognition Problem
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In two of my past jobs, the people I worked with were interested various problems that could be classified as pattern recognition. Basically, a computer program is given a series of inputs, and what those inputs mean. From that, the computer program builds a probability model. Given an unknown input, the program uses the probability model to decide which of the items it knows about matches the input best.

The example all of you know about is Google. You give the Google search engine a pattern of words, and Google gives you a list of files that best match your query. If you give the same inputs to a different search engine, you get different results. One reason is that different search engines cover different parts of the web. The other is that they use different algorithms to find the answer.

Humans are really good at this. Hitters in baseball do this all the time, recognizing a pitch from the arm angle of the pitcher, his release point, the spin of the ball, and many other variables they don't even know they are using. However, not all inputs are always available to us, so we make do with what we have and what we trust. The strikeout + error last night is a great example of this.

There were three decisions made last night based on different inputs from the play. Josh Paul, the catcher, used a single input in determining that the batter was out; he caught the ball. In his experience, that was enough to tell him the batter was out. The fielders on the Angels, and the fans in the stands just had a visual input. All game long they saw the swinging third strike call by Eddings. When they saw the exact same call on Pierzynski their model told them the batter was out. That was their signal the inning was over, and the Angels ran off the field.

Pierzynski, however, was in a unique position to get the play right. He caught the whole game with his back to the umpire. That forced A.J. to build a probability model based on auditory, not visual signals. So when he struck out and headed to the dugout, his brain set off an alert. The auditory model he had built listening to Eddings was screaming, "You're not out!" Because of his experience making the same mistake as Paul, Pierzynski believed the auditory model and headed to first. A.J. was the only person involved who made the right decision. Any other White Sox hitter would not have built the correct pattern recognizer, and the game would have been decided in extra innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Sleeping on It
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First of all, let me say thanks to all the readers who contributed comments to the Bad Call in Chicago post. There's an excellent discussion there, and here's a sample:

From Michael:

For anyone with MLB.tv, take a look at the Royals-Angels game back on April 8th of this year. In the bottom of the first inning (right around 15:45 into the video), Darin Erstad strikes out and the ball gets away from the catcher but Erstad is retired at first.

Why does this matter? Well it's because the HP umpire in that game was Doug Eddings and on that very play the only motion he makes is sticking out his right arm but NEVER pumps his fist.

After watching the video of that, you MUST ASSUME that the fist signified an out. An umpire doesn't suddenly change his motions within a season. Now I understand you can't protest a game because of the judgment of an umpire, but this now begs the question of if you can protest based on the issue that Eddings signaled an out. Now it's time for Eddings to admit he made a mistake and MLB to do something (at least admit it was the wrong call and misleading gesture) about this whole mess.

And from Jeff:

Paul never saw the ump signal out, but Im sure his teammates did, and Im sure Paul saw them running off the field

One thing is clear. When Eddings is interviewed after the game, he says he used his normal strike mechanic to call the play. That appears to be making a fist with his thumb up in front of the chest. Eddings is wrong there. On strike one or two, he does use that sign for a strike. But on a swinging third strike he sends his right arm out to the side with his palm parallel to the ground, and only when he's sure of the out does he give the fist and thumb. Eddings signaled an out with his hands last night. There's no doubt of that.

What's wasn't clear last night was why Josh Paul thought Pierzynski was out. Tom Verducci writes on that:

Here's the problem with the Angels' argument: Paul admitted that whatever Eddings did had no bearing on his decision to roll the ball back to the mound.

"I caught the ball so I thought the inning was over," Paul said.

Stop right there. Paul's job for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is to catch. It is not his job to umpire. It is not his call.

So there were two mistakes. Paul didn't wait for the call. When the hand signal comes, it's a clear out. Paul thinks the inning is over because he made the catch. The rest of the Angels think the inning is over because Eddings made the out call. If Eddings leaves his arm out to the side as he usually does in these situations, someone on the Angels grabs the ball and throws A.J. out at first. Paul deserves the error, but Eddings ought to admit he made a mistake, too, and that was not his normal strike three call.

By the way, in reading the rule book on the umpire, I don't see it mentioned anywhere how the umpire signals the result of plays. Is it in another section?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
October 12, 2005
Cardinals Win
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There didn't seem to be that much difference in offense tonight between the two teams. The Cardinals had one more hit (8 to 7) but each team drew three walks. Houston had three extra base hits to the Cardinals one. Houston even turned one more double play.

The problem tonight was timing. The Astros were 0 for 6 with men in scoring position, the Cardinals 2 for 5. When most of your line up is composed of weak hitters, it's likely you'll have one up when there's a man on base.

Carpenter did not pitch a great game as he walked three and only struck out three over eight innings. The Astros should have scored more against him.

Pettitte always seems to have one lousy game during the post season. I guess this was it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Call in Chicago
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Pierzynski strikes out, and Paul runs off the field. Pierzynski runs to first and is called safe. The replay shows Paul caught the ball. What bothers me is that the umpire made what looked like an out call on the play.

Update: Ozuna is pinch running. He steals second.

Update: Crede lines an 0-2 pitch off the left field wall to score Ozuna and give the White Sox a 2-1 win. The first call against the Angels in the post season leads to a defeat.

Update: The broadcast crew notices the out call after the strike out, too.

Update: Pierzynski says he didn't hear the umpire call out.

Update: One of the commenters made the point that what appears to be an out call is Eddings' strike call. However, he stuck his right arm out first, then brought it in for the fist pump. That looked to me like he called the strike with the arm out, then pumped the first to call him out. I'd like to hear what the catcher Paul has to say about it.

Update: The Baseball Tonight crew makes a good point. Pierzynski headed to first because he didn't hear an out call. Paul had been in long enough and caught enough strike outs to know how Eddings called a strike out. A.J. didn't hear what he should have heard, so he headed to first. So what did Paul hear or not hear?

Update: Eddings just had a news conference. He says he never verbally called the batter out. The supervisor said a batter is not called out if he starts toward the dugout. He's not out until he reaches the dugout steps.

According to one of the questions, Paul says umpires usually say, "No catch!" when the ball hits the ground. Eddings didn't do that. From that, I take it that Eddings didn't say, "out," either.

The umps are also claiming that from the replays they saw, the ball changed direction. As Harold Reynolds pointed out, it can change direction and still be in the glove.

One reporter pointed out that Eddings' strike call looks like an out call, and if anyone had pointed that out to him before. He said no, he never had a problem with it until now.

Has anyone seen an interview with Paul?

Update: They're interviewing Paul next on Sports Center.

Update: That was a useless interview. They didn't ask him what he heard from the ump!

Update: Good work by Drew in the comments. He writes:

Eddings contradicts himself..... on the batter before AJ, Aaron Rowand, when the ball got loose after he swung at strike 3, Eddings points to the ball, and ONLY RINGS HIM UP AFTER PAUL TAGS HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ringing him up IS NOT his normal strike 3 mechanics, as proved by the very batter before.

I just watched it on Tivo. Rowand swings and misses. Eddings right arm goes out straight. Paul tags Rowand, and Eddings pumps his fist!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (85) | TrackBack (4)
Buehrle Goes Nine
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Mark gets the side 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth. He made one mistake, the homer to Quinlan, that's keeping him from the win right now. He's only thrown 99 pitches, so he can come out for the tenth if the game goes that far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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They are going to the top of the ninth in St. Louis with the Cardinals ahead 5-2.

Update: Isringhausen is in to pitch, and Lamb gets a little leadoff single.

Update: With one out, an infield single brings the tying run to the plate.

Update: After an error, Ausmus hits a sac fly, but St. Louis gets out of the inning to win the game 5-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Can Konerko Connect?
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Dye singles with two outs to bring up Konerko.

Update: Konerko strikes out, as Escobar gets all three outs via the K. The Angels pen has struck out six of the eleven batters they've faced.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jose Can You Single?
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Jose Molina singles to start the 8th. Scioscia uses DaVanon as a pinch runner, and luckily he has three catchers on the roster so he doesn't need to move Bengie out of the DH slot.

Update: Gene Mauch is smiling as the Angels execute another sacrifice as Kennedy moves DaVanon to second.

Update: Figgins grounds to short but moves the runner to third. Now a wild pitch or passed ball scores the run.

Update: On a 3-1 pitch, Cabrera gives the ball a ride, but Podsednik catches it against the wall to end the inning. Buehrle's at 91 pitches through eight innings, 65 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Crede Doubles
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Joe Crede doubles with one out to give the White Sox a runner in scoring position. Uribe lines to deep center, and Anderson doubles off Crede on the force. Another bad base running play by the White Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Burke Goes Deep Again
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Burke pinch hits for Pettitte and homers to cut the St. Louis lead to three. That home runs in consecutive at bats for Chris. It's 5-2 St. Louis in the top of the seventh.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Degrees Kelvim
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Kelvim Escobar starts the bottom of the seventh for the Angels.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Seventh
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Mark Buehrle retires the Angels in order in the seventh, including a strikeout of Quinlan. Mark's only thrown 80 pitches through seven innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels Shield
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Scott Shields is in to pitch the 6th after going two innings last night.

Update: Shields retires the side in order, striking out two. The Angels pen struck out 3 of 4 batters so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cabrera Singles
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Orlando Cabrera singles to start the sixth inning. I'm going to concentrate on this game since it's more in doubt at the moment.

Guerrero hits into a double play to clear the bases.

Update: It's funny that they keep playing the A-Rod/Vlad Pepsi commerical. Neither has an RBI in the 2005 post season. Bengie Molina strikes out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Eck Wrecks
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With a man on second, David Eckstein singles to right, driving in Nunez. David is two for three with a run and an RBI so far tonight.

Update: Pujols singles in Eckstein with two out. It's 5-0 Cardinals now. They're having no trouble with Andy Pettitte tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox Fight Back
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Pierzynski walks and Uribe singles with one out in the bottom of the fifth. The White Sox have men on 1st and 2nd for Podsednik.

Update: Podsednik pops out to third. With the count 1-1, and and Washburn getting his pitches up, Podsednik swings at a high pitch that puts him in a hole 1-2. Once again, the White Sox are being aggressive when they should be selective with a pitcher who is tiring.

Update: Washburn hits Iguchi, and that's it for Jarrod. He leaves with the bases loaded after a gutty performance. Donnelly in to face Dye.

Update: Donnelly strikes out Dye on three pitches to end the inning. It's tied at 1 after five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Q Factor
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Quinlan homers to center leading off the fifth inning, tying the game at one. After an Erstad single, Jose Molina bunts right in front of the plate and Pierzynski makes the play at second base.

Update: No other damage in the inning. This game between two evenly matched teams is tied at 1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Double
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Ensberg doubles to lead off the fourth. Lamb moves him to third with a grounder. The Astros are getting base runners. The have three hits and two walks so far. If they keep doing that, they'll eventually come around to score.

Update: Lane walks to put runners on 1st and 3rd. That's three walks issued by Carpenter.

Update: Carpenter walked one about every five innings during the regular season.

Update: On a tapper to Nunez, Abraham throws out Ensberg at the plate. Great throw by Nunez and a nice tag by Y. Molina. Ausmus grounds out to end the inning. The Cards still lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
First Angels Hit
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Orlando Cabrera doubles with one out for the first hit for the Angels. Vlad follows with a hard grounder to Crede on the first pitch. I can't flip from this game as Buehrle works so fast, and the Angels swing so early, I miss two plays if I go away for 30 seconds.

Buehrle hits Molina in the right foot to put men at 1st and 2nd with two out.

Update: Anderson falls behind 0-2, fouls off a number of pitches, then grounds out to third. Buehrle maintains his 1-0 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Threat
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With one out, the Astros have Ausmus on second and Biggio on second for Taveras in the top of the third.

Update: Houston loads the bases for Berkman, but no grand slam this time. He hits into a double play to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Wearing Down Washburn
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The White Sox are not doing that good a job of inducing fatigue in Washburn. He's thrown 43 pitches through three, or 14 per inning. Not exactly working the count.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Squeeze Play
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Two singles put runners on first and third for Chris Carpenter. Carpenter puts down a perfect squeeze bunt to score Grudzielanek from third. With the Cardinals up 3-0, Pettitte has allowed as many runs in these two innings as he did against the Cardinals in 20 innings during the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Too Cool
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Jose Uribe tried to be a little too cool on fielding a Jose Molina grounder. He scoops the ground ball with one hand, then makes a bad throw to first to allow Jose to reach. He looked way too nonchalant on the play.

Update: Buehrle gets a comebacker, and Uribe is the pivot on the double play. Mark still has the no-hitter, but his perfect game is gone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Defense, Good Results
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Aaron Rowand hits a ball into the right field corner, and Vlad bobbles it. Rowand goes for three, Guerrero over throws two cutoff men and Rowand makes it easily. The ball bounds away from Quinlan and Rowand heads home. Quinlan recovers, throws home, and just nips Rowand at the plate. It looked a lot closer on the replay than it did in real time.

I can't fault Rowand for going on the play. The coach sent him, and there was a good chance Aaron could make it. Instead, the White Sox have a scoreless second inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Correction, Oct 19, 2005: I had the link wrong on the podcast. It's fixed now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Through Two
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Buehrle retires the side in order in the second. He's thrown just 23 pitches and is striking out a batter an inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Eck On
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David Eckstein starts the Cardinals first with a single to right.

Update: Reggie Sanders is batting cleanup vs. the lefty, and he cleans up tonight. With two out he drives a ball into the left field seats to give St. Louis a 2-0 lead. Sanders now has 12 RBI in 3 games and 1 inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels Miscue
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Washburn gets Podsednik to ground back to the mound, but make a terrible throw, over the head of Erstad, putting Scott at second. Iguchi bunts him over, and Washburn almost throws the ball away low.

The White Sox may just need to keep hitting the ball back to Washburn. :-)

Update: The Angels trade a run for an out as Dye grounds to short, driving in Podsednik. The White Sox lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros-Cardinals Underway
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With two out in the first, Berkman hit a ball deep to straight away center. Edmonds was going right, the ball was going left, and it went just off Edmonds glove.

Carpenter fields a comebacker from Ensberg to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels-White Sox Underway
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Figgins flys out to center to start the game.

Update: Buehrle retires the side in order, getting two ground outs. He throws just nine pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
NLCS Night
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It's such a great evening, let's watch two!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
St. Louis vs. Houston
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I meant to publish this yesterday, but I saved it as a draft. Sorry.

St. LouisHouston
2005ValueNL RankValueNL Rank
Runs per Game4.973rd4.2511th
Batting Average.2702nd-T.25613th-T
On-Base Average.3383rd-T.32212th
Slugging Percentage.4226th-T.40811th
ERA3.481st3.512nd

I don't really see why experts are picking the Astros over the Cardinals. The Cardinals have a clearly superior offense and pitching that is equal to the Astros. Most of the people who pick the Astros see the front three of the Houston rotation being untouchable. I just don't see where that's true. Clemens and Pettitte have excellent ERAs vs. the Cardinals, but the Astros are a combined 2-5 in their starts vs. St. Louis. The Cardinals have no trouble at all with Oswalt. I just don't see the superiority of the Astros pitchers in the results from this season.

The run prediction formula also heavily favors the Cardinals. St. Louis scores 4.97 runs per game and allows 3.91. Houston scored 4.25 runs per game and allows 3.74. With the NL average at 4.44, the formula predicts the Cardinals outscoring the Astros 4.09 to 3.77. It's really no contest.

You can see this in a position by position comparison. Not fielding positions, but batting slots. Of the eight slots, St. Louis is clearly superior in five of them (1, 2, 3, 5, and 7). Houston wins two (Ensberg over Walker in the 4th slot, Ausmus over Molina in the 8th slot). The sixth slot is a bit of a draw, with Grudzielanek having the better OBA but Lane making up for it with power. Basically, the Cardinals have a money ball lineup, with seven of their players having OBAs over league average, while the Astros only have three such players, and one of them bats eighth. And when the Cardinals win a slot, they tend to win it big.

The Astros have to start Backe in game 4. Oswalt might be able to start games 1, 4 and 7 but who knows if Pettitte is strong enough after his injury to risk it, and Clemens never pitched well on short rest. With Backe in the rotation, the Cardinals are guaranteed a mediocre pitcher to pound in one game.

There are too many tough outs in the Cardinals lineup, and not enough in the Houston order. The way Smoltz and Hudson (in his second start) handled the Astros is the way the entire St. Louis rotation is capable of pitching against Houston. I see the series as going to St. Louis fairly easily.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:50 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Stottlemyre Resigns
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It's a bright day for Yankees pitching as Mel Stottlemyre resigns. Mel never saw a strikeout pitcher he liked. His philosophy was to induce ground balls. Not the kind of pitcher you want on the mound with the poor Yankees defense behind him. Maybe Joe Girardi will stick with the team as the new pitching coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:41 PM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up at the top of the hour on TSPRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:38 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Two games today. Unfortunately, they're played at the same time. This is very disappointing, as I like to concentrate on one game at a time. I'll be using the flashback button on my remote quite a bit to switch games between pitches.

It's a battle of lefties in Chicago tonight as Jarrod Washburn faces Mark Buehrle. Washburn did not pitch in the ALDS as an illness took him out of a game four start. One question tonight is how well he's recovered. The White Sox may want to change their strategy tonight and be less aggressive with Washburn. Forcing him to throw lots of pitches early will likely wear him down and give Chicago a chance to score some runs before the bullpen arrives.

Buehrle's only weakness is a moderate strikeout rate, just 5.7 per 9. He depends on the great defense behind him to turn batted balls into outs. The Angles should have a fairly easy time putting balls in play, the question is will they fall for hits.

The lefty-lefty matchup helps both offenses. Each did better against lefties than righties this year. But while the Angels hit for a higher batting average against south paws, the White Sox win out in OBA and have a big advantage in slugging percentage, finishing over 30 points ahead of the Angels.

In St. Louis, it's left vs. right as Andy Pettitte takes on Chris Carpenter. Pettitte made three starts against the Cardinals this season, posting a 1.35 ERA giving up just three runs in 20 innings. His record was 0-1, and his team's record was 1-2. On June 3rd, Pettitte allowed 1 run over 7 innings, but Carpenter pitched eight shutout innings for the win. On July 15th, Pettitte went the same number of innings giving up the same number of runs, but this time Mulder held the Astros at bay until the bullpens battled to a 4-3 Cardinals win in extra innings. Even the win the Astros took home on April six saw Jason Marquis battle Pettitte to a draw over six innings.

The Cardinals pitchers can hang with Pettitte. I suspect another close game. The winner tonight can easily come down to which bullpen performs better.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Orioles Tensions
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Sam Perlozzo is in as the Orioles manager. What's more interesting, however, is the discussion of psychological testing, and how Beattie and Flanagan disagreed on its use:

Beattie denied that he and Flanagan had philosophical differences in running the team. But numerous team sources say that Beattie thought Dave Ritterpusch, the Orioles' director of baseball information and Flanagan's close friend, had been too heavy-handed in the decision-making. At issue is Ritterpusch's strong belief in psychological testing and quantitative analysis, a philosophy Flanagan has embraced, perhaps too much, according to some in the organization.

"I think it's a little unfair how much attention it's gotten," Flanagan said. "You're not doing your due diligence if you're not accumulating as much data as you can."

Beattie said the information he received from Ritterpusch was useful but said the practice of using such techniques to determine player transactions was "not well-defined" and not the only way to judge talent.

But several internal Orioles memos obtained by The Post show that Beattie did not stop the use of psychological tests to determine player signings, because, many close to the team say, of Flanagan's relationship with Ritterpusch and Angelos.

I'm very interested in seeing how this psychological testing pans out. It looks like with Flanagan in charge, they'll go full bore with the model.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Second Guessing
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Two of my favorite people at ESPN.com dissect Game 1 of the ALCS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 7 PM EDT. Note that we're on an hour earlier than usual so as not to interfere with the baseball games. Come join me for a pre-game rundown!

You can also call in at 888-985-0555 and leave a question for the show, or stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
B Different
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Jose de Jesus Ortiz profiles Lance Berkman as the anti-Killer B.

Personality wise, Lance Berkman is the anti-Killer B. He doesn't show up early or leave late, traits Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio have displayed while setting a high standard for generations of Astros.

He's witty and outspoken, entertaining teammates and media with impersonations and cutting jabs. He's a hitter above all else, though, which often leaves fans and teammates in awe of his majestic home runs or flabbergasted after his gaffes on the bases or in the field because his mind was on hitting.

So next time Berkman is making a mistake in the field, remember it's due to his concentration on hitting:

"There have been times when I've made baserunning mistakes and done different things, maybe defensively forgot how many outs there were because I was thinking about either what I did in my last at-bat or what I'm going to do in my next at-bat," said Berkman, the best hitter the Astros will throw at the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series, which begins tonight at Busch Stadium. "I know my job is to drive in runs, score runs and get on base. I'm constantly thinking about that, sometimes to the detriment of the team."

It reminds me of that great quote from Revenge of the Nerds. "Jocks only think about sports..." :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox Mistakes
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Last night, when Pierzynski ran into an out, there was speculation that the batter missed a hit and run sign. It turns out it was A.J. who misread the sign:

The seventh inning was another wasted opportunity. Aaron Rowand was hit by Byrd on the first pitch of the inning, convincing Angels manager Mike Scioscia to make a pitching change. After Scot Shields got Pierzynski to hit into a force out, Crede took a pitch and Pierzynski easily was caught stealing.

''I saw hit and run so I took off,'' Pierzynski said. ''Did I miss a sign? I guess I did, I don't know. I asked [first-base coach Tim Raines] and he wasn't sure, either.''

Some media advice for A.J. Don't blame someone else for your mistake.

Paul Konerko didn't have a problem with Dye's bunt attempt.

Dye's next act was quite more egregious. With the Sox already trailing by the eventual final score, he led off the sixth by trying to bunt his way on. Not exactly standard from a No. 3 hitter with 31 homers.

Worse, Dye's little popup back to the mound came on Paul Byrd's first pitch of the inning, setting up a five-pitch inning for the veteran right-hander at a time he may have been prone to being waited out into the end of his rope.

"That's the way we play. We're aggressive," said Konerko, figuring the attempt had Guillen's seal of approval. "Ozzie doesn't fault that. It's an aggressive mistake, which you can make when you play the game to win.

"You have to try to take it to them. No one had a problem with that. Against those guys, you've got to make things happen."

Jermaine did not sacrifice this season. I'm curious to know if he bunted for a hit during the season (feel free to leave the info in the comments). I doubt he's a good bunter, since he's not called on to bunt very often. I don't think it's that bad a play leading off an inning. The White Sox needed a base runner, and if you can lay one down the third base line, it will keep the defense guessing in the future. But it does take a little bit of practice, and I don't know if Dye had that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Nomar the Hero
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Nomar and his uncle rescued two women who fell into the water recently.

As soon as the All-Star shortstop and two-time American League batting champ ran out the door to help the woman, her friend also fell in, hitting her head on the pier, said Victor Garciaparra, who oversees his nephew's business and charitable ventures.

Victor Garciaparra jumped from the balcony to the water 20 feet below.

"I swam towards them and by the time I reached them, Nomar was already there holding the girls up," he told the newspaper. "But he couldn't get them up without help."

Kudos to Nomar and his uncle. I hope the women come forward to tell their side of the story. I'd like to know how two of them fell in. It doesn't sound like one pulled the other.

Someone should turn this into a comic book. Aqua-Nomar and his side kick Barnicle Vic.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Other | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 11, 2005
Bottom of the Ninth
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K-Rod in, and Everett hits a shot that eats up Chone Figgins. The White Sox get the lead off man on.

Update: Ozuna pinch runs for Everett, and it looks like Rowand is going to bunt as he fouls off the first pitch after squaring.

Update: Figgins makes up for the error by getting the runner at second on the bunt attempt. The White Sox are not executing the game plan offensively tonight.

Update: Pierzynski lines a shot to right, but Rivera is there to pull it in. The White Sox are down to their last out, and Crede is up.

Update: Crede strikes out swinging to end the game, and give the Angels a 1-0 lead in the ALCS. They also gain home field advantage.

Both starters pitched great games. For the Angels offense, they once again took advantage of defensive miscues. The White Sox failed to steal, failed to sacrifice, and failed to stop the running game. These are two evenly matched teams, and they showed that tonight. My guess is that this will continue to be a close series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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I've very surprised to see Contreras start the ninth. After Guerrero almost homered, with a bullpen that hasn't worked in days, why is Ozzie not going to the bullpen?

Anderson flies out to start the inning.

Update: Molina follows up with a single to center. That appears to be it for Contreras. A great effort. He throws 102 pitches, 68 for strikes. He gives up seven hits, but no walks and strikes out four. Only one of the hits was for extra bases, the home run by Anderson. That effort is usually good enough to win.

Update: Cotts is on in relief. An aptly named pitcher for the tired Angels.

Update: Erstad grounds into a force out. The ball was hit too slow to get the double play.

Update: Rivera pops to second to end the inning. The White Sox have three outs to get one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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Uribe starts off the 8th with a lucky hit of his own, a broken bat, strange bounce ground that he beats out for a single.

Update: Podsednik can't execute a bunt, then strikes out looking with two strikes. The White Sox are not doing a good job of executing smart ball tonight with the caught stealings and the missed bunt.

Update: Iguchi pops to short, no advance by the runner.

Update: Wow. Dye single to right, Uribe rounds second and decides not to go to third. He walks back to second and the throw from Rivera almost gets him. That should get him yelled at for not hustling.

Update: Konerko flies out to shallow center to end the threat. K-Rod will get to face the weak part of the Sox order in the bottom of the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Eighth
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The White Sox have two pitchers warming up just in case, but Contreras gets Kennedy to ground back to the box for the first out of the inning.

Update: A lucky bounce for Figgins puts Chone at first. The ball hit the first base bag and bounded over Konerko.

Update: Not a good night for Pierzynski and the running game. The White Sox pitch out, but A.J. double clutches and Figgins steals the base easily.

Update: Uribe makes another great throw from the hole to get Cabrera and hold Figgins at second.

Update: Guillen comes out to talk to Contreras, and he's leaving Jose in to pitch to Guerrero.

Update: Guerrero hits a shot, but Rowand catches at the wall in right center. A little less wind and we'd be saying Guillen left Contreras in one batter two long. Instead, he's through eight innings, but in line for the loss.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Seventh
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Shields is warming up in the bullpen. Scioscia is prepared for trouble.

Update: Byrd hits Rowand in the back to start the inning.

Update: That's it for Byrd. A great effort on short rest. That's the third well pitched game on short rest we've seen this post season. Shields is coming in to pitch to Pierzynski.

Update: The Angels almost throw away a force out. Pierzynski grounds to Kennedy, who flips high to Cabrera. Orlando comes down on the bag for the first out.

Update: I don't believe what I just saw. Pierzynski tries to steal 2nd, and is thrown out.

Bill James came up with a World Series prediction system many years ago that showed that teams that were aggressive on the base paths tended not to win. Better teams were better at throwing out runners, both stealing and from the outfield. I don't know if the system holds true now, but A.J. just took them out of an inning.

Shields gets the third out to send the game to the eighth with the Angels still in the lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Erstad Hits
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Erstad breaks the streak of 12 straight batters retired with a pop single to shallow center. Rowand came very close to catching the ball.

Erstand runs and successfully steals second. The White Sox stolen base percentage was much worse than their opponents this season.

Update: Juan Rivera pops out to first. Finley gets a chance to drive in a run.

Update: Finley strikes out on three pitches, waving at two splitters. The score remains 3-2 White Sox. Byrd has the team to the seventh, so the Angels bullpen should be ready to go at the first sign of trouble.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Sixth
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Paul Byrd pitches an extremely easy sixth inning. A bunt pop by Dye on the first pitch and two fly outs to center preserve the lead. Byrd, like Contreras is not wasting pitches, throwing just 72 through six innings, 46 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eleven in A Row
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Contreras pitches another 1-2-3 inning, retiring 11 in a row. He's lowered his pitch count a bit, with 68 through six innings. He's also starting to strike out batters, getting one each over the last two inning to bring his total to three. The score remains 3-2 Angels in the middle of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
First Walk
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Scott Podsednik draws the first walk of the game with one out in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: Mike Scioscia calls a pitch out and Podsednik is running. Molina throws out Podsednik easily. Scioscia is great at calling pitch outs. Good scouting by the Angels.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Fifth
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Contreras retires the side in order in the fifth. That's eight in a row he's set down. He's still keeping his pitch count down, throwing just 62 through five innings, 40 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
A.J. OK
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With Everett at second and two out, Pierzynski singles to right to pick up the RBI and cut the score to 3-2 LAnaheim.

Update: Crede strikes out to end the inning. The teams are really putting the ball in play tonight. Neither pitcher has issued a walk, and each struck out just one. Thirty-three batters so far, 31 balls in play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Fourth
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Contreras pitches a 1-2-3 inning in the fourth. He continues to be efficient, throwing just 51 pitches through four innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Crede Cranks
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Joe Crede makes up for his fielding miscue with a home run to left field. Byrd has allowed six runs to the White Sox this year, four driven in by home runs.

Update: The White Sox are measuring Byrd. With two outs, Podsednik and Iguchi single to put runners at first and second.

Update: Dye fouls out to Erstad to end the inning. It's 3-1 Angels after three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Finley Doesn't Sacrifice
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Steve Finley led off the inning with a single. With no one on, Scioscia had to let him hit. :-) That's his second hit of the post season.

Kennedy follows with a hit and run single, but Finley can't advance to third on the hard hit to left.

Update: The Angels give away an out as Figgins sacrifices. That sets up power hitter and great RBI man Orlando Cabrera.

Update: Cabrera taps one to third. Crede double clutches, doesn't throw home, then throws late to first. The Angels take advantage of another fielding miscue.

Update: Wow. Guerrero taps back to Contreras. He goes for the double play and gets the out at second, but Iguchi throws the ball away as Cabrera barrels into the second baseman. The runner scores from third to give the Angels a 2-0 lead. The Angels put the ball in play, and good things continue to happen.

Update: Contreras gets Anderson to ground out to the shift to end the inning. The Angels luck continues. Two runs score on two soft grounders as fielders make bad decisions.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Old School
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I just love Paul Byrd's wind up.

Update: Another 1-2-3 inning for Paul Byrd. The batters are making it easy on the starters, swinging early in the count. Through two innings, Contreras threw just 20 pitches, and Byrd 17.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Anderson Goes Deep
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Garret Anderson leads off the 2nd with his third home run of the post-season. He's had six hits this post season, four for extra bases. The Angels lead 1-0.

Update: Contreras gets the next three batters easily. Remember, Jose gave up 17 of his 23 home runs at home this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Podsednik starts the White Sox half of the first with a pop to short. Byrd fell down on the first pitch. I think he slipped.

Update: Iguchi popped to first.

Update: Dye flies out to deep right. Byrd throws 8 pitches, 6 for strikes. It looks like this might be a quick a game. That's what happens when pitchers throw strikes and both teams like to put the ball in play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels-White Sox Underway
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Figgins strikes out to start the ball game.

Update: Cabrera pops out to first for the second out.

Update: Uribe throws out Guerrero from deep in the hole. It's the first example of better defense helping the White Sox. Jeter doesn't make that play.

Conteras retires the side on 13 pitches, 9 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
DiMaggio's Homer
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A reader needs help finding some information. She writes:

In Aug 1962, my Dad (Bruno), brother (Tom) two uncles (Sal and Dominic) and a cousin (Nicky) went to the Old Timer's Game at Yankee Stadium. (Sounds like a casting call for the "Sopranos"). Anyway, Nicky had his face buried in a hotdog when Joe D. stepped up the plate. Joe was 48 years old and looked great. He hit a home run and the stadium erupted! Fans were standing on their seats going berserk. Tom said the yelling was deafening. My cousin Nicky, still more interested in his hotdog, looks at my brother and asks "Hey Tom, when's Joe D coming up to bat????"

Famous old family story -- we still laugh at Nicky for being such a dope.
Anyway -- here's the controversy. My brother, who was there, claims the homerun Joe D hit was "inside the park". My husband who was 9 years old at the time was watching the game on TV -- he claims the HR was over the left field wall.

They argue about this every time they get together which is about twice a year.
How can I find out who's right? I tried to find stats for Old Timers' Games on the net, but no dice.

Thought you might know...

If you know anything about this event, please leave a comment here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | All-Time Greats | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The League Championship Series gets underway tonight with the Chicago White Sox hosting the LAnaheim Angels. (One great thing about the Angels making it this far is that I get to write LAnaheim for another week!) Paul Byrd takes the mound for the weary Angels against second half phenom Jose Contreras.

Byrd's great strength is wasted on the White Sox. Byrd doesn't walk many batters, just 28 in 204 1/3 innings. But the White Sox don't take many walks. They ranked 11th in the AL in walks drawn. What the White do is hit home runs. In the one game Byrd started against Chicago, he walked no one in 6 innings, but gave up two home runs bringing in three of the five runs he allowed.

Contreras is susceptible to the home run at Comiskey, having allowed 17 of his 23 dingers there. However, since the start of August, he's allowed just three home runs total, two at his home park. Jose is very consistent across his splits, equally as good vs. lefties and righties and in various on-base situations.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:02 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
One Head is Better than Two
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Mike Flanagan is now in charge of the Baltimore Orioles. In making the move, Angelos channels Pee Wee Herman:

The change in front office leadership is basically what Angelos said he envisioned when he replaced Syd Thrift in December 2002 with what is now commonly referred to as the Orioles' two-headed general manager. At the time, Flanagan, a longtime consultant to Angelos and one of the winningest pitchers in team history, had no front office experience.

Beattie, a former general manager for the Montreal Expos, was hired to provide that expertise and effectively share the job with Flanagan - with the thought that Flanagan eventually would become the solitary GM.

"That was our original intent, and we made that fairly clear when Jim and Mike came on," Angelos said. "There's nothing different from that, except that it was disclosed."

So there will be very little change in the Orioles management, as Sam Perlozzo is likely to stay as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:00 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Tracy in Pittsburgh
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As expected, Jim Tracy is the new manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

With the Pirates, Tracy takes over a team coming off 13 consecutive losing seasons, three short of the major league record, and a 67-95 record but one that broke in a half-dozen promising rookies during the second half of this season, including left-handed starters Zach Duke (8-2, 1.81 ERA) and Paul Maholm (3-1, 2.18 ERA).

It's a good time to be taking over the Pirates. He has one of the premier hitters in the league in Jayson Bay, and a developing left-handed rotation. And it will be fun to compare the Pirates progress with the Dodgers over the next few seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:53 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wild About Ozzie
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Deadspin is very excited to have Ozzie Guillen managing in the ALCS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Stocks- aholix
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The Soxaholix gets a great write up in the Wall Street Journal today. Unfortunately, you need to subscribe to read the story on-line. If you find a hard copy of the paper, it's on page D8.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:29 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Just Wondering
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Why don't we hear or see stories about Bobby Cox getting fired when the Braves lose every year? Or how Chipper Jones isn't a true Brave when he bombs in the post-season? Or how if they didn't let Glavine and Maddux get away, the Braves would have won?

The searches for "Bobby Cox fired" yield stories of Cox talking about Hudson in game one.

"He was just too fired up, I think," Cox said of Hudson. "He was really wanting to pitch a shutout tonight, I think."

Hudson is obviously not a true Brave, either. Atlanta fans just don't know how to handle this whole losing thing. :-)

Update: Okay, Braves fans don't want Cox fired, they just want him to resign.

Update: I guess I didn't write this post well. Judging from the comments, people think that I'm calling for Cox to be fired. I'm really making fun of Yankees fans who go off the deep end everytime they lose a series. I though the comparison was obvious, but I guess not.

I do wonder, however, if the Braves should have another manager for the post-season. Maybe bring in a Billy Martin type for the month of October.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 AM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Speculation Begins
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Their corpses are not even cold, and newspapers are speculating about the moves the Yankees will make in the off season. If there's any validity to their center field plans, don't look for much improvement:

Of course, the Yankees must pay Matsui and he likely will command more than $10 million per year. It seems like a lock they'll re-sign him. They'll also need a center fielder, and if they sign Boston free agent Johnny Damon, they'll have to pay around the same, which will cut into their payroll savings. Damon is 31 years old and could want a five-year contract.

They might fill center field by trading for Mike Cameron, if the Mets are willing. They might compete with the Red Sox there. Or they could explore whether free agent Brian Giles would fit. "There aren't a lot of center fielders out there," a Yankee bigwig said.

None of the options here are a young player. They need to replace Bernie with the next Bernie Williams, someone who will fill the role for the next 10 years. If the Yankees go for a player in his mid-30's, they'll just be going through the same thing every other year.

Here's an idea. Give the job to 21-year-old Melky Cabrera.
He's 21, and he'll make the minimum. It may take him a couple of years to develop, but it took Bernie three years before his OBA and Slugging were something to notice. Don't waste the money on someone who's likely to decline. Spending little money on someone who's likely to improve is a much better option.

Update: A good use of the money might be to sign Bernie as a player/coach. He could DH, spell outfielders, pinch hit and more importantly serve as a mentor to Cabrera and Cano.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM | Management | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Chicago vs. LAnaheim
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ChicagoLAnaheim
2005ValueAL RankValueAL Rank
Runs per Game4.579th4.707th
Batting Average.26211th-T.2706th
On-Base Average.32211th-T.3259th
Slugging Percentage.4257th-T.4099th
ERA3.611st-T3.683rd

Although the White Sox posted a better ERA than the Angels, LAnaheim actually allowed fewer runs than Chicago. It was very close, but the Angels allowed 643 runs to 645 for the White Sox. Defensively, these teams appear to be as even as you can imagine overall.

If you calculate predicted runs scored based on these numbers, LAnaheim comes out slightly on top. The prediction is the Angels over the White Sox by 0.1 runs, 3.97-3.87. The pitching on both teams is so good that we're forced into the realm of close games, a place where the White Sox thrive.

There is, however, an adjustment to be made for their home fields. The Park Index for 1 or 3 years indicates that runs are much more plentiful in the park formerly known as Comiskey than at the Big A. Chicago increases run scoring by about 10 percent while LAnaheim decreases it by 6%. This puts the White Sox pitching and defense ahead of the Angels, but gives a big boost to the LAnaheim offense.

With the adjustments for park in place, the runs prediction is even closer, now with the White Sox edging out the Angels 3.78 to 3.77. We have two very evenly matched teams facing each other in this series.

The problem right now for the Angels is the pitching rotation. The Angels blew out three starters in the last two days, with Colon getting hurt. They also used Kelvim Escobar last night, another candidate for a spot start. That leaves them with Byrd to start tonight, and Washburn penciled in for tomorrow if he's over his illness. Basically, 1-2 for Chicago will be facing 3-4 for the Angels in the first two games.

What happens after that, however, depends a lot on Colon's shoulder. I could see Scioscia going with Lackey and Santana in games 3 and 4, then if Colon is healed putting Bartolo in for game five in Anaheim. Then, you can come back with a well rest Byrd and a normal rest Lackey, or go for broke and pitch Lackey and Santana in games six and seven on short rest. Scioscia did a very good job of manipulating his staff against the Yankees, and I expect the same in the ALCS.

Lineup construction goes to Ozzie Guillen. It's not a great lineup, but given the hand he's dealt, my only change would be to switch Dye and Konerko, getting Paul closer to the men who can get on base a little bit. But Guillen has the concept down. He has the guys who can get on base at the top, he has his best power right behind them, and then the order is in decreasing OBA after Everett (Everett is better than the .311 OBA he posted this season, so I don't have a problem with his batting fifth).

Scioscia, on the other hand, splits up Figgins and Guerrero and Figgins with Cabrera and his .309 OBA. He splits up Guerrero and Molina with Anderson and his .308 OBA. He bats Erstad in front of Rivera, despite Rivera's greater power. He bats Kennedy ninth, the player with the third best OBA on the team.

I know studies show that lineups don't matter, but I have to believe that bunching your best hitters together is superior to splitting them with outs. The White Sox aren't the Yankees. They have the second best DER in the American League, trailing just the Athletics. They are going to catch everything that is catchable. Fewer balls are going to scoot through the infield, fall in the gaps, or just in front of an outfielder. The Angels are going to need to earn their way on, which makes putting together rallies tougher. The Angels offense is better, but Ozzie's arrangement is more pleasing.

It's going to be a very close series. Both bullpens are great. Each strike out a ton of batters while walking few. Whoever is ahead after six could easily win each game. I'm looking for a series that goes down to the wire in a string of close games. I see the odds as 51-49 White Sox You might as well flip a coin.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)
October 10, 2005
Angels Win
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Erstad make a nice play on a hard grounder to Matsui. He flips to K-Rod for the final out.

Congratulations to the Angels! They executed their game plan. They put the bat on the ball and good things happened. The pitching was very good. Santana beats the Yankees for the third time this year.

A big cheer for Bengie Molina. He had a fantastic series. Garret Anderson didn't get on base much, but he had two big home runs.

The big bats for the Yankees, A-Rod, Sheffield and Matsui disappointed. There will be a lot of negative talk about Alex tomorrow on talk radio. But really, it was the team's defense that led to the runs that lost them the series. The Yankees need to address that problem if they are going to beat a team like the Angels in the future.

On to Chicago!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (30) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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It's K-Rod versus Jeter to start the ninth inning.

Update: Jeter gets good wood on the ball and he lines a single into left.

Update: A-Rod grounds into a double play. He'll never hear the end of that.

Update: Giambi hits a single between the shifted second baseman and rightfielder. Bellhorn pinch runs. It's up to Sheffield now.

Update: Bellhorn takes second removing the force play.

Update: Sheffield chops one into short left field. It's fielded by the third baseman, but he has no play. It's now up to Matsui.

Update: Matsui falls behind 0-2.

Update: Womack runs for Sheffield.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 PM | League Division Series | Comments (46) | TrackBack (0)
Tom Gordon In
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Gordon comes in to pitch the eighth. We'll see how long he lasts. Matsui is moved to center.

Update: Gordon gets the first two outs, including a strikeout of Finley.

Update: A good inning by Gordon, getting the side 1-2-3. It's up to the Yankees offense now, and they have their best five hitters due up. The Angels need just three outs for a ticket to Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Two Out Walk
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Jorge Posada draws a two out walk in the top of the eighth. Sierra will pinch hit for Crosby, and K-Rod will step in for the Angels.

Update: K-Rod has three saves this year greater than 1 inning.

Update: K-Rod throws a wicked curve ball for strike two.

Update: Sierra grounds out weakly to shortstop. The main positive for the inning is that the top of the Yankees order is coming up in the 9th.

Look at this boxscore. A-Rod and Giambi have done a good job getting on base this series, but Sheffield and Matsui haven't delivered.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Vlad Singles
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Guerrero leads off the seventh with a hard single to center.

Be afraid, Tom Gordon is warming up.

Update: Anderson flies out to right.

Update: Molina flies out to center.

Update: Erstad flies out to right.

With all the deep fly outs, Johnson may be tiring. The Yankees may want to get him out of there before those turn into home runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Homers
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Derek Jeter leads off the seventh with a home run in front of the water fall. It's 5-3 with no one out in the 7th.

Update: A-Rod hits the ball hard, but Cabrera is right there to throw Alex out at first.

Update: That's it for Ervin Santana. A fantastic relief performance. It was essetinally a start. He goes 5 1/3 innings, allowing five hits, two walks and a hit batter. He's bridged the distance from Colon to the setup men.

Update: Escobar is in to pitch.

Update: Giambi puts himself in scoring position with a blast off the right center wall for a double.

Update: Sheffield flies to right on a 3-1 pitch.

Update: Matsui pops up to Molina to end the inning. With two men on, however, the top of the order will come up one more time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Erstad Doubles
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Erstad gets the first hit off Johnson, a double to lead off the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Rodriguez saves a run, but doesn't get the batter. He dives for a hard shot, looks the runner back, but the umpire says the throw was late. It was a very close play. The close plays appear to be going the Angels way tonight.

Update: Finley sacrifices the runners over.

Update: Johnson strikes out Kennedy. Figgins is up and he's struck out three times.

Update: Johnson falls behind 3-0.

Update: Johnson throws three straight strikes, but walks Figgins to load the bases.

Update: Johnson gets Cabrera to hit into a fielder's choice to end the inning. The top of the order is coming up for the Yankees in the top of the seventh, Santana still in. If they're going to make some noise, now is the time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Ervin Is Magic
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A 1-2-3 inning for Santana in the 6th. The Yankees are starting to run out of outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Fifth
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Randy Johnson gets three quick outs in the fifth. Maybe he should have started the game.

Update: Johnson's pitch count is just 22 after 2 1/3 innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hit-Rod
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Santana hits A-Rod to start the fifth.

Update: Giambi follows with a single past Erstad to put runners at 1st and 2nd.

Update: Santana gets ahead of Sheffield 0-2 and gets him to fly out to shallow left.

Update: The same thing with Matsui. Santana gets ahead 0-2, and Matsui pops to first.

Update: Santana gets ahead 0-2 on Cano. He strikes him out, but the ball gets away from Molina. The throw gets away from Erstad, but Cano is called out for not being in the running box.

I thought that was only called if the ball hit the runner. Maybe I missed something.

Also, why don't batters to remember to run in the box on plays like that? It doesn't seem like a tough rule to remember.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | League Division Series | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Unit
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Randy Johnson has a very easy inning, getting the side in order with one strikeout. He looks a lot better than he did on Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Inning
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Santana pitches an easy fourth. He induces three ground outs. The only damage is a bunt single by Crosby.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Johnson In for Redemption
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Randy Johnson enters the game in relief of Mussina. He's facing Finley with men on 1st and 2nd and two out.

Update: Johnson gets Finley to ground out to Cano. The Yankees offense needs to make up for it's poor defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Mussina's Night
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I didn't think Mussina pitched that badly. His defense let him down on the collision in right center. If that ball is caught it's a different ball game. He threw strikes (38 of 57 pitches, 67%) and struck out three. The Angels just had the ball fall in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Leadoff Single
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Cabrera singles to start the bottom half of the third. Vlad has a runner on base.

Update: Vlad drops a single into shallow right on a hit and run to put men at first and third with no one out.

Update: Cabrera started running three times in that last at bat. I'm not a big one for throwing to first, but a throw might have picked him off.

Update: Anderson hits a sac fly to centerfield to make the score 4-2. You could see Crosby yelling, "I got it!" on that one.

Update: Molina dumps one into shallow right field. If Sheffield was a little faster, he would have caught it. The Yankees defense costs them again. First and third with one out.


Update: Erstad grounds softly to Giambi, and Giambi throws home! He had no chance at Guerrero, why didn't he take the sure out?

The Angels put the ball in play. Against this defense, good things happen. It's 5-2 Angels.

Matsui actually makes a good play, reaching into the stands in foul territory to catch a fly. There are two outs, and Mussina is out of the game with Finley coming up.

Correction: Fixed spelling error.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | League Division Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Calling for the Ball
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Looking at the replay of the collision, I don't see Crosby calling for the ball. I haven't see a replay that shows Sheffield's mouth. I know it's loud there, but you still have to shout, "I got it!" at the top of your lungs.

Sheffield makes up for it a bit with a one-out single in the third.

Update: Santana gets through the inning without further damage.

I'm becoming more impressed with Robinson Cano in this series. This last at bat was good. He was very selective. He ended up smacking a ball a long way toward the centerfield wall.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Garret Goes Deep
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Garret Anderson leads off the second with a home run to right to cut the lead in half. Molina follows with a single up the middle. It's been a tough second inning for the starters.

Update: Mussina comes back to strike out Erstad.

Update: Mussina walks Finley with two outs. A commenter mentioned that Santana was being squeezed. They squeezed Mussina on that pitch.

Meanwhile, Kennedy hits the ball to right center, and Crosby and Sheffield collide to allow both runners to score.

Tim McCarver doesn't know what he's talking about here. He says it was Sheffield's ball. If the center fielder can catch it, it's the CF's ball. The Yankees defense hurts them again as the Angels take a 3-2 lead.

Update: Figgins strikes out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | League Division Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Colon Hurt
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Cano hits a ball down the first base line foul. Colon started off the mound after it, and now the trainer is out at the mound.

Update: Colon stays in the game.

Update: Colon goes to 3-2 on Cano, winces in pain, and he's done. Ervin "Magic" Santana is entering in relief. Santana was 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA against the Yankees this season. He walked 5 and gave up three home runs in 11 1/3 IP in two starts vs. the bombers. I assume he did very well with men on base.

Update: If Cano walks, it will be charged to Colon.

Update: Cano fouls off 3 pitches, then takes a ball for the leadoff walk. Good plate appearance by Cano.

Update: Cano gets thrown out trying to steal. The ball was high and outside, a good pitch for Molina to throw. The announcers think Bernie missed the hit and run sign. Williams follows up with a walk.

Update: It also possible that the pitch was such a poor one to hit that Williams decided it wasn't worth swinging, since he couldn't make contact.

Posada walks. The caught stealing looms large right now.

Update: Crosby singles to right! Bernie Williams tries to score on Vlad, and he makes it. Vlad's throw was a little off line, enough to allow Bernie to reach the plate before the tag. Bubba's earned his 2005 salary tonight.

Update: Jeter hits the ball a long way to right field, but Vlad catches it. Posada tags and scores to extend the lead to 2-0.

Update: The Angels smell the stolen base and pitch out, but it's a poor pitchout by Santana and Crosby steals the base.

Update: A-Rod strikes out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM | League Division Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Mussina strikes out Figgins on four pitches, all strikes.

Update: A pretty play on a short hop by Jeter, throwing out Cabrera at first.

Update: Guerrero lines out to Matsui in left, who makes the basket catch. It almost looked like last night's play, where Matsui had the ball hit his torso.

Mussina throws just seven pitches in the inning. That's a very good sign for the Yankees starter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees-Angels Underway
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Jeter starts the game with a single through the hole.

Update: Kennedy has to go deep into the outfield to catch a pop by Rodriguez. The Yankees batters are not working Colon so far.

Update: Giambi works the count to 3-2 then flies out to deep left.

Update: Sheffield checks his swing and grounds a ball to right field for a single. Jeter beats Vlad's throw to third.

Update: Colon strikes out Matsui to end the inning.

The announcers seem to think that Colon doesn't have his good stuff tonight. It was good enough that no one hit him that well. Jeter's single was the only ball pulled in the inning. It looked like he had the Yankees off balance to me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Defensive Lineup
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The Yankees are going with their better defensive lineup tonight. Bubba Crosby will play center and Bernie Williams will DH.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Beattie Asked to Fly Away
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It's a bad day on the I-95 corridor, as Jim Beattie was fired by the Orioles. It was noted earlier in the day that the Orioles were looking for a new GM.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:42 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Sports Bloggers Live
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I'll be on Sports Bloggers Live around 7:30 PM EDT talking about the Division Series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Schedule Makers
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Matt Thompson writes:

What is the reasoning behind MLB not delaying Game 1 of the ALCS one day. It seems that the White Sox gain a considerable advantage over the other ALDS winner due to a rain out, not a "baseball" reason...like playing 18 innings in one day. If the argument is that Fox has the broadcast rights, and they refuse to reschedule for the benefit of their programing/ratings, then MLB has greater issues than I thought. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

There are a number of issues at work here.

  • Fox is paying a ton of money to major league baseball. They expect a game on Tuesday night. If baseball wants more control of when games are played, they are going to get less money. That means the owner and the players all get less money. They'll lose sleep over that.
  • These games are covered by tons of other media. They've made hotel reservations, flight reservations, etc. Changing plans costs all these people money.
  • The World Series is scheduled to start in the AL city. If the ALCS is on schedule, everyone has at worst two days lead time to set up for game 1. If you push the series end to Thursday, you cut that to one day. And if game 6 or 7 is rained out, you're scrambling. Baseball is trying to avoid that.

I was listening to WFAN today as I drove my dad home today, and they were discussing something else I didn't know. There's a union rule forbidding playing 3 consecutive games in different time zones. The union, however, waived that rule in this situation.

One of the reasons this is happening, by the way, is that clubs with higher seeds demanded a change to the first round. Five game playoffs used to be 2-3, with the higher seed getting the last 3 games at home. But too often, the higher seed was losing the first two games on the road and ended up being swept. As the higher seed, they felt they should get two home games, so now you have the ridiculous schedule where you may need to fly across the country to play a game five. It just goes to show that there are unintended consequences to decisions that appear beneficial on the surface.

And quite frankly, I don't have a lot of sympathy for either team. These are guys who play night games, party into the wee hours of the morning, get a few hours sleep and then come back to the ballpark. They're flying chartered jets where there is room to stretch out and sleep. I would suspect after playing baseball for over seven months straight they can afford to miss batting practice.

Whoever wins tonight is going to be happy to be playing tomorrow, no matter how tired they feel. They can sleep on Thursday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Wade Removed
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Ed Wade is out as general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies.

"This was a very difficult decision. No one works harder than Ed, and he has served this organization extraordinarily well for over 16 years," Montgomery said. "At the same time, we have not been able to achieve the goals we have set for the Phillies. As a result, I believe we have reached a point where a change is necessary."

I thought Wade made some good moves early in his tenure, but the Scott Rolen debacle soured me on the man. In a way, hiring Larry Bowa led to Wade's downfall, as that appeared to be a big reason Rolen wanted to leave, and Bowa's inevitable firing made Ed unpopular.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Management | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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There's just one game five this season, and it's tonight in Anaheim as the New York Yankees face the LAnaheim Angels for the right to fly to Chicago tomorrow and face the White Sox. Tonight features a rematch of game 1 as Mike Mussina faces Bartolo Colon. Both get a needed extra day of rest, Mussina for his elbow, Colon for his back.

The key to success with Mussina is the number of walks he issues. In game one, no Angels received a free pass. Mussina did not put batters away quickly, however, averaging 4 1/2 pitches per batter. The Yankees in general would much prefer a great, short outing to a Mussina getting hammered in the third, but that leaves them with the problem of getting the game from the sixth to the ninth. I see them with two alternatives:

  1. Score lots of runs.
  2. Use Randy Johnson.

Johnson last pitched Friday and will probably start game 2 if the Yankees get to the LCS. This would be his day to throw on the side anyway. One or two innings isn't going to kill the guy. I'm sure the Yankees know what Johnson did to them out of the pen in 1995. I'm sure the Yankees know what Randy did to the Angels in the 1995 playoff game. If he doesn't get the first couple of batters out, go back to Sturtze/Gordon/Rivera. But Randy's the best option Torre has for long middle relief.

Since joining the Angels, Bartolo Colon pitched poorly vs. the Yankees. Add last Tuesday's performance to his three regular season starts, and Colon has a 7.94 ERA vs. the Yankees over the last two seasons.

The Angels struck out seven times last night after just 13 in the first three games. The two by Rivera were particularly impressive, as both were extremely hittable balls. They were just in unexpected locations. The Angels batters need to get the bat on the ball again tonight to win.

Look for this game to go the Yankees way early and the Angels way late. If the Yankees can get a big lead off Colon they'll likely hold on for the win. If it's close going into the seventh, the outcome is more likely to be in the Angels favor.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | League Division Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (1)
Heading South?
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Joe Girardi appears to be in demand as both Florida teams asked permission to talk with the Yankees bench coach about the manager's job.

I was very impressed by the job Joe Girardi did catching in Colorado, being the regular catcher the one year Colorado made the playoffs. It was the team's best year pitching. The Rockies usually have a terrible road ERA to go along with their high altitude ERA. But in 1995, they were great on the road, and Girardi deserves credit for that. It fell apart the next year when he moved to the Yankees. So if I'm looking for a manager that might be able to turn around a pitching staff, I'd take a long look at Joe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Orioles Looking
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It appears the Orioles front office is going to be rearranged. According to Mike Boehm at Orioles Magic, Baltimore is talking to Tim Wilkens and Jim Duquette. I wonder how the active GM's feel about this?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 09, 2005
Mo Better Pitching
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Mariano Rivera gets Guerrero to ground to second to end the game and send the series back to Anaheim. Six up, six down for Rivera, although he threw 35 pitches. He probably can't go two innings tomorrow, but at least there is a tomorrow for the Yankees.

Chacon proves to be one of the best pick ups of the year. He struck out five and walked just one, and deserved the win. However, Al Leiter, with his induced double play gets the W.

It was a pretty good day for going on short rest, as Hudson and Lackey both pitched well enough to win, but their bullpens let them down. Maybe we'll see more pitchers going on three days rest in the future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Figgins leads off against Rivera.

Update: Figgins strikes out looking on a high pitch on the outside corner. One out.

Update: Cabrera bounces back to the box. Two out for Guerrero.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Two On, Two Out
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Cano and Posada draw walks. They're on for Tino with two outs in the bottom of the eighth. A wild pitch puts the runners at 2nd and 3rd.

Update: Tino pops out to center to end the 8th. Can Mariano get the last three outs without allowing a run?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Makes a Double Switch
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Torre used Womack as a pinch runner in the bottom of the seventh, and I assumed he was going to play center. But instead, Torre moves Williams to center, puts Tino at first, and loses his designated hitter. Rivera, on to get a six-out save is batting in the #3 hole.

Update: Rivera gets the second out, catching Finley looking on a very hittable pitch.

Update: Kennedy grounds out to A-Rod, who makes a nice backhand play to end the inning. The Yankees need to get three more outs to earn a trip to Anaheim.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Slow and Cano
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Robinson Cano leads off the seventh with a slow roller for a single.

Update: Bernie Williams flies out to shallow center. One out.

Update: Cano goes, and Posada takes ball four from Shields. The Yankees have drawn five walks through 6 1/3. Normally, I'd say that the Yankees would be dominating with that many walks. With all those walks, however, the Angels pitchers are not compensating by coming into the middle of the strike zone.

Update: Sierra pinch hitting for Crosby knocks a single into right, scoring Cano and tying the game at 2.

Update: Posada goes to third on the throw home. Jeter's up.

Update: Jeter grounds to third, Posada runs home, Molina makes the tag and the ump calls Jorge safe. The replay shows Posada getting his foot in a split-second before the tag. The Yankees lead 3-2 and have two on and one out for A-Rod. The Angels are going to the bullpen again.

Update: Escobar is in to pitch to Rodriguez.

Update: Escobar walks Rodriguez. Alex has a .182 batting average, but a .500 OBA in the series. Giambi is up with the bases loaded.

Update: Giambi strikes out. Sheffield's up to try to get the Yankees some insurance.

Update: Sheffield flies out to center, but the Yankees take the lead. We'll see if Rivera starts the 8th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | League Division Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Bringing in the Lighter
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Bengie Molina singles, and Torre pulls Chacon so Leiter can pitch to Erstad. I wouldn't trust anyone in the bullpen right now except Rivera. There's one out and a man on first.

Update: Leiter does the job and gets Erstad to ground into a double play. The Yankees have nine outs to tie the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rodriguez Walks
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With one out in the bottom of the sixth, Alex Rodriguez draws a walk to bring Giambi to the plate as the tying run.

Update: Giambi's bat shatters, and he grounds out to second. That puts A-Rod on second for Sheffield.

Update: Sheffield singles to left, and Anderson makes a poor throw home. A good throw gets Rodriguez easily, but Anderson sends it up the first base line. That's it for Lackey. Shields is coming in to pitch.

Update: Just as Yankees fans might be feeling better about this game, Fox shows Leiter and Gordon warming up in the bullpen.

Update: Matsui grounds to first to end the threat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Man On
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Shawn Chacon issues his first walk of the night, giving Juan Rivera a free pass to start the sixth.

Update: Finley bunts Rivera into scoring position. That's how far Finley's offense has fallen, he's sacrificing.

Kennedy grounds to second, sending Rivera to third.

Update: Figgins lines a shot down the right field line, doubling in Rivera and giving the Angels a 1-0 lead.

Update: Cabrera follows up with a double to right center, and the Angels extend their lead to two. The way the Yankees are hitting tonight, that may be enough.

Update: Chacon comes back to strike out Guerrero to end the inning. The Yankees need to generate runs now. They'll have the top of the order in the bottom of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Posada Double
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Jorge Posada hits a two out double to left center, the first hit for the Yankees. A few years ago Finley might have caught that.

Update: Crosby grounds out weakly to the pitcher. Posada's double goes for naught. Lackey struck out Cano and Williams to give him six Ks through five innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chacon Through Five
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Chacon is giving the Yankees just what they need. He's gone five allowing just one hit and facing the minimum. He's thrown 68; at 13 pitches an inning he should be able to go deep in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
End of Four
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Giambi walks again, but again the Yankees can't get any hits behind him. Matsui ends the inning with a 3-6 reverse force GDP. Lackey has not allowed a hit through four innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Defense Hurts Again
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Hideki Matsui attempts to make a basket catch on a Figgins fly ball to left. The ball hit him in the chest and bounced away for an error. It's not clear what happened there, since it was an easy play. He might have lost it in the lights.

The Yankees continue to hurt themselves with their poor defensive play.

Chacon almost picks off Figgins, then Posada thrown Chone out stealing. The error is moot.

Update: Vlad gets the first hit of the game, an infield single. He then tries to advance when a pitch gets away from Posada, but Jorge throws him out to end the inning. Chacon has still faced the minimum despite two batters reaching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Third
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Posada walks and Crosby bunts him to second. This is one game where buntin early may be a good idea. Especially with Crosby up.

Update: Lackey strikes out Jeter.

Update: Lackey strikes out A-Rod. Lackey and Chacon each have four strikeouts through three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Through Three
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Chacon gets another 1-2-3 inning and another strikeout.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 for Lackey
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John Lackey pulls out his strikeout pitch, getting Matsui and Cano to K as retires the side in order. Two innings, and no hits on either side.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Through Two
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Chacon retires the side in the 2nd, striking out Erstad to end the inning. That's three strikeouts in two innings for Shawn. The most he's struck out in as a Yankee is six.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Lackey walks Giambi, but otherwise gets the side easily in the first. He's now walked twice as many as he's struck out in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels-Yankees
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Chacon gets the Angels in order in the first, striking out Cabrera and Vlad to end the inning. A big strikeout night from Chacon would help the Yankees cause (and defense).

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros win the NLDS.
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It's another impressive win for the Houston Astros. A season comeback is capped with a five-run comeback in this game. Congratulations to the Astros on winning this great series.

When the game went to extra innings, it looked like Garner ran for Berkman too early. It took a while, but the move paid off in a walk off home run.

Clemens adds to his legend, pitching three gutty innings, striking out four and giving up just one hit. He gets the win, and all the money spent to keep him in Houston this year looks well worth it now.

The Braves go home again. Farnsworth was brought in early because the rest of the bullpen was so poor yesterday. Yet things were turned around today, as Farnsworth gets hammered and the rest of the pen pitches well.

It's the Astros and Cardinals starting Wednesday in St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Swinging for the Fences
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Roger Clemens strikes out to start the 18th. He was swinging for the fences on the first two pitches.

Update: Clemens couldn't do it but Burke does. Chris deposits the first pitch into the left field seats for the win.

What an incredible game!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 18th
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Clemens is facing the Jones boys to start the inning. Chipper grounds out to second for the first out.

Update: Andruw grounds to short, but the catcher playing first base can't scoop the low throw. Vizcaino gets charged with the throwing error.

Update: Julio Franco breaks his bat and pops up to short stop.

Update: Francoeur strikes out on a 3-2 count. How many innings can Roger last? He'll bat leading off the bottom of the 18th. He's probably thinking he needs to hit a home run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Two for the Price of One
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Fans at the Juice Box are getting two games for the price of one today. We'll see if the second half of the double header ends in a shutout, at which point they'll start game three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 17th
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Devine relieves Brower to pitch to Ausmus. Brad is one of the four remaining starters still in the Houston lineup.

Update: Ausmus strikes out swinging.

Update: Brunlett strikes out swinging. Joey's been Devine so far.

Update: Biggio is up with Clemens on deck. Craig pops to second to end the 17th. Clemens will lead off the 18th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:39 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Multi-Position Players
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Five players on Houston have fielded at multiple positions in this game. At one point, Ausmus was moved to first. He was moved back to catcher when Clemens came into the game because Roger is more comfortable with Brad behind the plate.

Brian Jordan pinch hits and doubles with one out in the 17th.

Update: Furcal grounds out to second, advancing Jordan to third with two outs.

Update: Giles waves at ball four and Clemens has his third strikeout of the game. With Pettitte needed for tomorrow and Oswalt tired from yesterday, Clemens is it for the rest of the game, likely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Brower Better
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Brower has an easy 1-2-3 inning to send this game to the 17th. It's now the longest post-season game in terms of innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Clemens in the 16h
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Roger comes on to try to win the game for Houston. It's now tied for the longest post-season game. The Mets and Astros went 16 in game 6 of the NLCS in 1986 at the Astrodome. The Mets won that one.

Update: Franco strikes out looking on a high pitch. Franco almost gets himself thrown out arguing the call.

Update: Francoeur strikes out swinging. Looks like Clemens has his good stuff today.

Update: Langerhans flies out to end the inning. A great relief effort by Roger. The way this game is going, however, he may be in there for a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:15 PM | League Division Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 15th
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Wheeler gives Houston three scoreless innings. He walked three but only allowed one hit and struck out four. Houston gets another chance to win the game in the bottom of the 15th.

Update: Roger Clemens is on deck to pinch hit for Wheeler.

Update: Brower walks Biggio. Clemens will bunt.

Update: Clemens moves Biggio to second with a sacrifice.

Update: Brower walks Burke and now he's facing Ensberg.

Update: Brower falls behind Ensberg 2-0. He's not showing any control.

Update: Ensberg grounds into a double play to end the inning. On to the 16th! This will be the longest division series game in terms of innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 14th
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We're eating dinner, but I heard the bases were loaded. McCann just struck out with the bases loaded for the 2nd out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:42 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Wheeling and Dealing
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Wheeler pitches in the 13th for the Astros. He retires the top of the Atlanta order 1-2-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Thomson Gunner
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Thomson enters the game in relief and strikes out 2 in a 1-2-3 inning. Will inning 13 be lucky for one of these teams?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:13 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lackey to Start
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One of the commenters alerted me to this story. Lackey will start against the Yankees tonight on short rest. Washburn is sick. I acutally think this will give the Angels a better chance of winning the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 12th
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Lidge is still on, he'll face three rookies.

Update: Langerhans is on first after a one-out single.

Update: McCann strikes out on a pitch outside in the dirt.

Update: Betemit is pinch hitting.

Update: Betemit strikes out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 11th
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Reitsma is still in. Roger Clemens has moved to the bullpen. Lane files out to left to start the inning.

Update: Vizcaino flies out to right.

Update: Ausmus grounds out to the pitcher. To the 12th!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Eleventh
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Lidge comes on to pitch the 11th.

Update: Houston may be in a bit of an offensive hole, as Berkman, Lamb and Bagwell are out of the game. Furcal does his job and draws a walk to start the inning.

Update: Giles tries to bunt and pops out to the pitcher.

Update: Furcal steals second, although the Astros argue he left the bag was tagged. They don't argue very much, however.

Update: Lidge pitches carefully to Chipper and walks him.

Update: Andruw Jones strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. The old man, Julio Franco, gets a chance to extend the inning.

Update: Furcal steals third on a 1-1 pitch.

Update: Chipper takes 2nd on a 2-2 pitch. It's 3-2 to Franco, and he grounds out to second base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:33 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Tenth
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The Braves get a hit but no runs in the top of the 10th. Reitsma is in to pitch in the bottom of the 10th.

Update: Biggio pops out to short to start the 10th.

Update: Luke Scott hits a ball down the left field line that the crowd thought was a home run, but the umps called it foul. It looks to me like it was foul on the replay.

Update: Scott grounds out to second on the next pitch.

Update: Berkman doubles to left center. Burke runs for Berkman. Ensberg is issued the intentional walk, and Bagwell will pinch hit.

Update: Reitsma gets ahead of Bagwell 0-2.

Update: Bagwell flies out to left. This one is going to 11.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:18 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
We Need a New Stat
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Farnsworth does not get a blown save, since he did not enter in a save situation. As my friend Jim Storer points out, Farnsworth pitched so badly, we don't even have a stat for what he did! I guess we need a blown lead stat to cover situations that aren't blown saves.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:14 PM | Statistics | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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The Braves failed to score in the top of the ninth. The Astros have three outs to score a run.

Update: ESPN confirms this is the first post-season game with two grand slams.

Update: Lane grounds out to start the ninth.

Update: Farnsworth gets Vizcaino to strike out looking. Ausmus bats.

Update: Ausmus sends a ball to deep center, and it just hits over the yellow line for a home run! Go Dartmouth! The game is tied at 6.

Update: Brunlett strikes out to end the inning. We'll go the tenth.

What a waste of a great start by Hudson. With the Braves bullpen, Atlanta is in trouble now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM | League Division Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Eighth
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The Braves extended their lead to 6-1 on a McCann home run, his second of the series.

The Astros start the bottom of the 8th with singles by Ausmus and Brunlett to start the 8th. That chases Hudson from the game.

Update: Farnsworth is in, I assume for all six outs.

Update: Biggio forces Ausus at third. For the second play in a row, the Braves fail to hold a bag however, and Franco fails to complete the double play.

Update: With Luke Scott at the plate, the ball gets by McCann and the runners move up.

Update: Scott checks his swing and draws a walk. The bases are loaded for Berkman.

Update: Grand slam for Berkman! I don't know off the top of my head, but two grand slams in one post-season game can't have happened very often.

Update: Farnsworth comes back and strikes out Ensberg.

Update: Lamb flies out to deep right to end the inning. The Braves still have a 6-5 lead and need three outs to send the series back to Atlanta.

Update: I just looked at my 2000 Record Book, and through 1999 there were no games with 2 grand slams in the post-season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Fifth
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The Astros are trying to launch a comeback in the fifth. They've had two singles sandwiching an out to put runners on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Ausmus singles up the middle on a 3-1 pitch to load the bases. The pitcher's spot is up next.

Update: Palmeiro is pinch hitting for Gallo.

Update: The Astros score on a sac fly to center by Palmeiro. The Braves will be happy to trade the run for the out there.

Update: Biggo flies out to left to end the inning. It's 5-1 after five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Barely Fair
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Giles singles to start the fifth, then Chipper Jones hits a fly down the left field line that hits just in front of the 315 sign, right on the line. Berkman was playing Chipper to pull and could get to the ball. The Braves have men on 2nd and 3rd for Andruw Jones. AJ fouls out to deep left to drive in Giles, and it's 5-0 Braves.

Update: Gallo relieves Backe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:22 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Four in the Books
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It's 4-0 after four innings. Hudson is throwing a one-hitter and has only thrown 45 pitches. Backe's allowed more runs than hits, and has thrown 67 pitches. If Backe doesn't go deep into the game, that might weaken the bullpen for tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:19 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Third
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Hudson gets the Braves in order in the third, striking out Biggio for the second time to end the inning. Going on short rest, Tim is being efficient, throwing just 12 pitches an inning, two thirds for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:04 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Furcal Walks
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A much better plate apperance for Furcal in the thrid inning. He worked the count full, fouled off a couple of pitches, then checked his swing on a high pitch for the walk.

Update: Giles forces Furcal, but Chipper Jones walks to put two men on for Andruw Jones.

Update: Backe's control problem continues. He tries to pitch A. Jones tight again and this time Brandon hits Andruw. The bases are loaded for LaRoche.

Update: LaRoche slams the ball over the right center fence for a grand slam. The Braves lead 4-0 in the third.

Update: Francoeur flies out to end the inning. Backe's pitch total is now 55 after getting the side on six pitches in the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lamb Stew
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Mike Lamb gets the first hit off Hudson, a one-out single grounded hard up the middle.

Update: Lane is the second strike out of the inning. Hudson is getting the Houston batters to swing and miss a lot, and it appears they're swinging at balls out of the strike zone. The Astros may want to try to take a few pitches.

Everett flies out to right to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
High and Tight
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Backe starts Andruw Jones off with some chin music, backing him off the plate. It can be a mistake to come in too high and tight to a slugger like that. Graig Nettles used the knock down pitch as motivation to hit a homer. Jones takes a curve ball for a strike, then knocks a double just fair down the left field line.

LaRoche follows with a strike out.

Update: Francoeur swings at the first pitch and pops it out. I don't quite understand why Francoeur bats in front of Langerhans. Ryan is better at getting on base, so you'd think Francoeur's power would be more useful behing the good on-base player.

Update: Langerhans draws a walk. The Braves have men on 1st and 2nd with two out for McCann.

Update: McCann grounds out slowly to shortstop to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the First
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Hudson starts the game by striking out Biggio on three pitches.

Update: Hudson has an equally easy first inning, getting Berkman to ground out on the first pitch to end the first. He throws six pitches, all of them strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Braves-Astros Underway
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Furcal swings at the first pitch and flies out to right field.

Update: Giles swings at the second pitch and is out when the ball hits him in fair territory.

Update: Jones flies out to right to end the inning. Backe throws just six pitches. That's a great start for Houston, as Backe tends not to last deep into games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Braves send Tim Hudson to the mound on short rest to try to stave off elimination. Hudson pitched well in his one start on short rest this season, shutting out the Mets for eight innings. Hudson's problem in game 1 was his lack of strikes thrown. Only 56 of 99 pitches went for strikes, resulting in five walks and a hit by pitch. For his career, Hudson walks less than three batters per 9 innings. I would suspect we won't see that kind of performance again.

Brandon Backe takes the hill for the Astros. Backe pitched well for the Astros in last year's post-season, much better than he pitched during the regular season. The Astros are hoping he'll do the game this year. He already has one scoreless inning of relief, pitching in game two, throwing just seven pitches to get through the inning. However, Backe, faced with starting all year, saw a huge fall off in his strikeout rate. Like Sosa last night, Backe doesn't go deep into games, so look for the bullpen to be called in early to finish off this one.

In New York, rain soaked Yankee Stadium will be the venue for the second do or die game of the day as the Angels send Jarrod Washburn against Shawn Chacon. Chacon won his last three regular season starts, allowing 1 run in 22 2/3 innings vs. the Blue Jays and Orioles. The Yankees want to pitch Chacon at home, where his only poor start was against Boston, than on the road, where his only poor start was against Seattle. For some reason, he strikes out more batters at the Stadium, so it's likely the right move.

I find it interesting that the Angels are going with Washburn tonight and Colon tomorrow instead of Colon and Lackey. Washburn's home and road records are mirrors of each other; 2-6 at home, 6-2 on the road. His road ERA is 1.35 runs lower than at home. That road ERA includes a 7 2/3 innings, 1 run performance at Yankee Stadium. However, Washburn is still the fourth starter on this team. If he loses, the Angels send Colon out tomorrow, and the Yankees hit him well this year. Not only that but Mussina will have an extra day of rest, and that has helped him lately. If the Yankees win tonight, they're set up well to win the series tomorrow.

Of course, Scioscia could always decide to throw Lackey tomorrow, too.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Take Round One
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Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals! They completed a sweep of the San Diego Padres last night with a decisive 7-4 victory. And the biggest heroes weren't the biggest stars:

With shortstop David Eckstein providing an early two-run homer among his three hits and starting pitcher Matt Morris providing six encouraging innings, the Cardinals sucked any remaining suspense from their clincher early. Left fielder Reggie Sanders capped a record NL Division Series with two late RBIs that left him with 10 for the sweep.

The Cardinals killed the mediocre starting pitching of the Padres. San Diego's bullpen did a good job last night, allowing just two runs in 7 1/3 innings of work, but it was too little too late.

The 1-2-3 hitters for both teams told the story of the series. The Cardinals kept the top of the Padres order off base. Roberts, Lorretta and Giles all posted OBAs below .300 during the series, while Eckstein, Edmonds and Pujols were all well over .400. No one set the table for San Diego, while Reggie Sanders always had a big meal to devour. The Cardinals earn three days off before the start of the NLCS in St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 08, 2005
Morris First
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Matt Morris gets the Padres 1-2-3 in the first. So far, the pitching is favoring the Cardinals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals-Padres Underway
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David Eckstein leads the game off with a single. I don't know how long I'm going to stay up. I'm sort of hoping that one team blows the other out early so I can get to bed.

Update: Williams gets Edmonds looking for the first out.

Update: For the second batter in a row, Williams falls behind 3-0. This time, Albert smacks the 3-0 pitch to the wall in right to drive in Eckstein. It's 1-0 Cardinals in the first.

Update: Walker chops out to Williams, sending Pujols to third.

Update: Sanders falls behind 1-2 but lays off three curve balls to draw a walk.

Update: Grudzielanek flies out to end the inning. Williams did not throw strikes and was lucky to get out of the inning with just one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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The pitcher's spot and top of the order is due up for Atlanta in the 9th. They need four runs to tie.

Correction: Sorry, it's McCann, Pitcher, Furcal.

McCann strikes out, and Franco is pinch hitting for the pitcher.

Update: Lidge starts the inning, of course.

Update: Franco drops a single into right.

Update: Giles strikes out to end the game. Sosa's inability to go deep costs the Braves this game. Houston can clinch at home tomorrow afternoon.

Update: Pete Orr pinch runs, and Furcal flies out to right. Furcal is 0-5 tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Table Setter On
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Giles singles to start the 8th, the first time an Atlanta table setter reaches in the game.

Update: Chipper Jones flies out, and that's it for Oswalt. He throws 106 pitches, 70 for strikes. He ends the night with seven strike outs. Now we'll see if the Houston pen can do a better job than the Atlanta relievers.

Update: Like the Atlanta relievers, Wheeler is greated with a double to drive in Giles. It's 7-3 Atlanta. LaRoche flies out for the second out.

Update: An Adam Everett throwing error (Lamb couldn't scoop the ball) puts runners at first and third as Francoeur reaches.

Update: Gallo is in to pitch, and Jordan is pinch hitting. Where's Julio?

Update: Jordan grounds off Gallo's body to Biggio who forces the runner at second. The Braves get just one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Triple Double
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Craig Biggio doubles leading off the bottom of the 7th, his third of the game and fourth of the series. The Houston 1-2 hitters are four for seven so far tonight; Furcal and Giles are 0 for 7.

Update: Taveras fails to bunt Biggio over, but with two strikes he beats out an infield hit to put runners on first and third with no one out.

Update: LOOGY Foster comes in and switch hitter Lance Berkman hits the first pitch into left to drive in Biggio and make the score 4-2 Astros. Not a good night for the Atlanta bullpen so far.

Update: Joey's in to make Devine intervention.

Update: Ensberg doubles in Taveras and it's 5-2. That's seven doubles for the Astros in the game and the first four hitters against the Atlanta bullpen get hits. The streak stops with Lamb, who is intentionally walked.

Update: The merry-go-round continues as Lane singles to left to make it 6-2 Houston. Six up, six on for the Astros so far in the 7th.

Update: Brower in, and he finally gets an out. Unfortunately, it's a deep fly to center and the Astros score again on the sac fly, extending the lead to 7-2.

Update: Brower gets Ausmus to hit into a double play to mercifully end the inning. With two innings to go against Oswalt and the pen, it's going to be tough for the Braves to come back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pitch Counts
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Houston still lead 3-2 after six innings. Oswalt and Sosa are nearly even in number of pitches thrown, Roy with 91 and Sosa with 90. That's usually the limit for Sosa, so we'll see if he comes out for the 7th.

They pinch hit for Sosa, so he is indeed done. Not a bad start at all.

Update: The Braves don't score in the top of the 7th. Reitsma relieves Sosa in the bottom of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Oswalt's Pitches
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Roy Oswalt settled down after the 2nd inning. He threw 30 pitches in that inning, 33 in the other four. Forty three of them went for strikes. The Astros lead 3-2 in the middle of the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lamb Slam
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Lamb does an excellent job on a low pitch, depositing it into the right field stands to give the Astros a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Double Double
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With two outs, Craig Biggio hits his second double of the game, this time pulled down the left field line. Taveras flies out to center to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Shoulder Check
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Francoeur grounds into a double play. The throw pulled Lamb off the bag, and Francoeur put his shoulder down and tried to push Lamb over. Mike used Francoeur's momentum against him and Jeff ended up on his keister.

Update: McCann bloops a single into left to score LaRoche. It's 2-1 in the top of the second.

Update: Jorge Sosa helps his cause, singling in Langerhans to tie the game. Sosa hit .097 during the regular season.

Update: Furcal grounds out to third on a nice play by Ensberg. It's 2-2.

The Braves really worked Oswalt in that inning. He's up to 42 pitcheds after two innings, 30 coming in the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Biggio Belt
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Biggio leads off the bottom of the first with a double to deep left. Langerhans leaped at the wall and got his body on the ball but didn't catch it.

Update: Taveras strikes out looking on a pretty pitch on the outside corner.

Update: Sosa hits Berkman with the next pitch. It's faster than pitching Lance carefully then walking him. :-)

Update: Ensberg comes through with another big hit, doubling down the left field line to drive in Biggio. The Braves are walking Lamb to load the bases.

Update: Everett hits a sacrifice fly to right center, making the score 2-0. The Astros could have won a lot more games this year if they had scored two runs more often. Ausmus flies out to end the inning, and Oswalt has a little cushion.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Braves-Astros Underway
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Furcal grounds out to second to start tonight's game.

Update: Giles grounds out to first base.

Update: Oswalt gets the side in order as Chipper Jones flies out to left. It was a bit of an adventure for Berkman as he almost overan the ball.

Oswalt throws just 12 pitches in the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Only two games today as LAnaheim-New York is postponed until tomorrow.

The early late game sees the NLDS moving to Houston as the Braves face the Astros. Atlanta sends Jorge Sosa to the mound to take on the Astros third ace, Roy Oswalt. Sosa pitched great as a reliever and almost as good as a starter. Sosa's main weakness as a starter is his stamina. He only averaged 5 1/3 innings per start this season. He simply throws a lot of pitches. He puts men on base (.359 OBA allowed with none on) but doesn't let them score (.194 batting average allowed with runners in scoring position). He'll give them five or six good innings, then it's up to the bullpen.

Oswalt won the most games in the majors over the the last two years. He got there doing three things well; he strikes out batters, he doesn't walk many and he gives up a fairly low number of home runs.

Oswalt, however, has never beaten the Braves in the regular season. In five games against Atlanta, he's posted a 6.41 ERA. In his only start against them this season, Atlanta hammered him for 9 runs, 7 earned in just five innings.

Even people in St. Louis are going to need to stay up past their bed time to catch the Cardinals vs. San Diego. An 8 PM west coast start means St. Louis fans will be up late to see if the Cardinals can take the series tonight. St. Louis sends Matt Morris against form Cardinals pitcher Woody Williams.

Morris never returned to the dominant form he showed in 2001 and 2002. His K per 9 is much lower now than it was at the time. But this year he cut down on his walks, and while not dominant is a solid middle starter.

Woody Williams had a poor season, especially away from PETCO. But at home, he posted a 5-7 record by a 3.72 ERA. It's not exactly a stellar number in that ball park.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels-Yankees Postponed
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Today's game between the Angels and Yankees is rained out. They'll play tomorrow night at 8 PM. Game five, if needed will be played in Anaheim on Monday.

The Yankees left Mike Mussina in Anaheim so he didn't have to travel. I wonder if they'll bring him back, or go with Chacon and give Mike the extra day of rest? I would be inclined to do the latter. More rest is better for Mussina right now.

I also wonder if Colon will pitch game 4 tomorrow. He's been lit up by the Yankees all year.

Update: Fox reports the pitching matchup will be the same.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
One and Done
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There's a new Boston Red Sox T-Shirt available. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Mechandising | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tipped Pitches
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Harold Reynolds suggested on Baseball Tonight that Randy Johnson was tipping his pitches. Now, Orlando Cabrera says that Johnson used to do that:

Orlando Cabrera, who is 9 for 24 (.375) off Johnson in his career, admitted he had a little help putting up some of those numbers. When Cabrera was with the Montreal Expos, he said he and his teammates could tell by Johnson's glove position whether he was about to throw a slider or a fastball.

Maybe that was back last night. Of course, the Angels hit everyone who took the mound last night, so maybe they have a book on the team. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 AM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Earning Respect
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The White Sox are finally getting some respect in Chicago:

The afternoon was full of pivotal moments atypical in Chicago baseball. The White Sox took a 4-2 lead on Paul Konerko's home run, sending the crowd at McGee's Tavern into chants of: "Paul-ee, Paul-ee!'' This is the same bar, at Sheffield and Webster, that this summer relegated the Sox to one TV while the Cubs filled the rest. Friday, the South Siders were on all 65 sets.

The Sox are so white hot they're even pushing the Bears and Cubs aside:

Stores that wouldn't dream of carrying Sox merchandise during the regular season are starting to put Sox hats, jerseys and other souvenirs on their racks.

"We usually just have a couple of hats and jerseys, but now we have jerseys with names and numbers, division champ hats, everything,'' said John Moorehouse, manager of Wrigleyville Sports, 959 W. Addison.

And the Sox are getting prominent placement, on a rack at the front of the store.

"It was Bears stuff until this week,'' Moorehouse said.

Good for them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Getting On is Clutch, Too
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Amalie Benjamin notes that Ortiz and Ramirez played well yesterday, but had no one on base:

Three solo homers, all the runs the Red Sox scored yesterday in their 5-3 loss to the ALCS-bound White Sox, came off the bats of Ramirez and Ortiz, including back-to-back screamers in the fourth inning. But, it seemed, they had been quiet, too quiet.

Their problem? Yesterday, at least, it was simply that their at-bats kept coming with no one on base.

''They've got to do the damage when they can do the damage, guys on or guys not on," Mike Timlin said. ''It's good to see them both swinging the bat. Those two guys can go and hit a home run and lift everybody else and everybody else starts hitting. We just didn't hit enough as a team. They outpitched us, I guess."Ramirez hit two home runs yesterday, yet never batted with a player on base. Ortiz, though, had his chance. And, it seemed for a brief moment, he had taken advantage. He came up, with two down in the fifth inning, with Johnny Damon and Edgar Renteria aboard. The pitch shot off his bat, bound for the deepest part of the ballpark, sinking far too quickly for any Red Sox fan's taste. And Rowand, back on the warning track, gathered it in.

David Ortiz gets a lot of credit for his late inning heroics, but often he got the chance because the hitters in front of him extended the inning to get Papi to the plate. Graffanino, Damon, Renteria somehow managed to prevent that third out until they could hit the middle of the order. Ortiz got the glory for driving them in, but without their contributions during the season, Papi would not be in the race for the MVP. Table setters are clutch, too. With the White Sox shutting them down, the sluggers didn't have the chance to get the clutch hit. Ortiz was left on deck.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Randy Not Dandy
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Filip Bondy of the Daily News sums up Randy Johnson's performance last night:

If this is where the season ends, then Johnson becomes the biggest baseball disappointment of the year in New York. Bigger even than Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright in the Bronx, or Carlos Beltran in Queens. Johnson's acquisition was supposed to mean a long October for the Yanks, more than anything else.

All over the major leagues these days, ex-Yankee pitchers collectively are an extraordinary staff-in-exile. Orlando Hernandez shut down the Red Sox yesterday, sent them packing. Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Jose Contreras still are pitching in the playoffs.

They are all missed at the Stadium, where Johnson struggled so badly.

The Yankees never really recovered from the Clemens/Pettitte departures. Given Andy's arm trouble in 2004, you can't totally blame the Yankees for letting the lefty go. But the replacements, old and young, never quite worked out.

And there appears to be no easy fix. More old free agent pitchers? Trading an offensive star? Those may be quick, but they haven't worked. Building from within takes time, especially when other teams are getting first round picks from your signings. Wang and Chacon appear to be the future of the Yankees rotation at this point, and I wouldn't want to base this pitching staff on two guys who get lots of balls in play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 07, 2005
Bottom of the Ninth
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Amazingly, the Angels don't score in the ninth. The Yankees now need to get four runs off K-Rod.

Update: Matsui reaches on a infield single. Hideki's done a great job of leading off innings tonight.

Update: Cano forces Matsui for the first out.

Update: Williams flies out to Finley. Sierra is pinch hitting for Martinez.

Update: Sierra strikes out to end the game. The Angels win back home field advantage. It came down simply to the Angels finding a few relievers who could pitch, while the Yankees had none. The Angels just need a split to earn a trip to Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Opposite Field Jeter
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Jeter homers leading off the bottom of the 8th. He goes to the opposite field, as so many of his Yankee Stadium homers. It's 11-7 LAnaheim.

Update: That all the Yankees get in the 8th. On to the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Figgins Triples
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Chone Figgins hits a ball over Matsui's head for a triple. Matsui got back to the wall, but was too far to the left. He had to run the ball down, then his throw was off line. If he had been able to take an angle to the ball rather than running straight back, I think he would have caught it.

Update: Jose Molina picks up where his brother left off and drives in the Angels' tenth run of the game. Can no one on the Yankees pitch?

Update: Garrett Anderson gets his fourth hit and fifth RBI to make it 11-6.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Three Degrees Kelvim
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Kelvim Escobar does his job, getting the side in order in the seventh. While I enjoy the excitement of the scoring threats, it's nice to see a well pitched inning once in a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Flash on the Mound
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Tom Gordon is on in relief of Sturtze. He gives up a single to Vlad, although Guerrero hits it off the left field wall. He just hit it so hard, Vlad couldn't get past first.

Update: Gordon hits Molina on his left elbow, and Bengie is in pain. That puts runners on 1st and 2nd with none out.

Gordon isn't pitching well. The Yankees should not be patient with any of their pitchers at this point.

Update: Jose Molina comes in to pinch run. Bengie could not continue in the game.

Update: Anderson gets a seeing eye base hit between first and second. Sheffield tries to throw Vlad out at the plate, but the ball is kicked by Vlad and Molina goes to third. Gordon's not gettng the job done.

Update: Strange defensive play, and I'm not sure who to blame. With the infield in, a ball is hit to A-Rod. Alex looked like was going to throw to first, then realized there was a runner headed for second. He threw to second, but Cano's foot came off the bag on the stretch. The throw was there in plenty of time. I guess Cano thought he'd get the neighborhood play. I've seen a lot worse called out. The Angels have the bases loaded.

Update: Al Leiter is in. I think the Yankees really want a Bud Light.

Update: Leiter strikes out Erstad.

Update: Finley squeezes in Molina to make the score 9-6. That's the second squeeze of the day.

Update: Leiter gets out of the inning. Do the Yankees have another comeback in them?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Go Ahead Run On
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A one out single by A-Rod and a two-out walk by Sheffield put men on 1st and 2nd for Hideki Matsui. Godzilla has a homer and a walk, and score two runs. He started the two comeback innings for New York.

Update: Shields walks Matsui to load the bases for Cano. Robinson's gotten the big hits for the Yankees so far in this series. However, he's a good strike out candidate for Shields.

Update: Cano swings at the first pitch and flies out to left. The Angels hold the lead 7-6.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Evil Inning
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Small runs into trouble. With one out, Rivera doubles to left and Erstad singles him in. It's 6-6 in the 6th. :-)

Update: With two out, Kennedy hits a pop into the Bermuda triangle in center field, and it falls to give the Angels men on 1st and 3rd with Figgins up.

Update: Figgins gets his first hit of the series, driving the ball into right center for a 7-6 Angels lead. We're going to be here a while, folks.

Update: Sturtze relieves Small.

Update: Cabrera flies out to right to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Cano Does it Again
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Robinson Cano doubles into left center. Figgins slips on the wet grass, and Sojo sends Matsui to the plate. Cabrera takes the cut off throw and hurls it to the backstop, allowing Cano to take third. The game is tied at five, and the go ahead run is on third with no one out. Donnelly is leaving the game.

That's five RBI for Cano in the series.

Update: Shield relieves Donnelly.

Update: Bernie Williams flys to left to score Cano and give New York the lead. An impressive two inning comeback, and Randy Johnson is off the hook. The game started as a Big Unit, but may end as a Small win.

Update: Shields gets out of the inning with no more damage, striking out two. It's an official game with the Yankees in the lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Matsui Reaches
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Matsui starts the fifth with a walk. Two innings in a row, Hideki did his job leading off.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Small Inning
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Aaron Small gets three quick outs in the top of the fifth. The game is 1/2 inning away from being official as rain continues to fall.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Hideki Home Run
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Matsui goes the opposite way, homering down the left field line to put a run on the board for the Yankees. If you believe in momentum, it's changing right now.

Update: Cano reaches on a bad throw by Kennedy, but Robinson is limping.

Update: Bernie Williams singles, the third batter to reach base in the inning. The Yankees have men on 1st and 2nd with none out, but the bottom of the order is coming up.

Update: Why is Flaherty on deck? Johnson is out of the game, and the Yankees need offense. They need to bring Posada into the game.

Update: Tino gets a "productive" out, grounding to first and moving both runners into scoring position. And Posada is pinch hitting.

Update: Posada grounds out to first, once again advancing the runners. It's 5-2 LAnaheim.

Update: Jeter drives in Williams with a classic Derek flair single to right. It's a close game again at 5-3.

Update: Byrd gets ahead of A-Rod 0-2, but ends up walking Alex to chants of MVP. That's it for Byrd as Brendan Donnelly tries to put out the fire.

Update: It looks like they gave Cano a hit on the bad throw by Kennedy.

Update: Oops. The shortstop is playing at 2nd base, the third baseman is playing at third. Giambi hits it off the end of the bat, and easy grounder to short. No one is there, however, and Jeter scores from second to make it 5-4.

Sheffield hits a sinking line drive into center on the first pitch. Figgins rushes in and makes a great diving catch to end the inning. The Angels keep the lead by a matter of inches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Hitting 'em Long and Often
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Erstad leads off the fourth with a double. That's five extra-base hits off Johnson in the game; two doubles, a triple and two homers. The home runs accounted for all the runs so far.

Update: Quinlan follows up with a single to put runners at first and third. It also sends Torre to the mound to remove Randy Johnson from the game.

Randy did not earn his big salary tonight. He was hired to win games like this. The inconsistency of the Yankees big gun pitchers continue. And the fans are not happy. Aaron Small is in the game.

Update: Small strikes out Kennedy for the first out.

Update: Small gets Figgins to ground into a pretty double play. Aaron get the El Duque award in New York tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Walking the Weak
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Paul Byrd starts off the third inning by walking the weakest hitter in the Yankees lineup, John Flaherty. I might have pinch hit for John with Posada. Jorge can't do any worse with Johnson tonight, but the backup catcher got the job done leading off the inning.

Update: Giambi hits a ball between the shifted SS and second baseman for a single. Two on with two out for Sheffield.

Update: Sheffield flys out deep to straight away center. Still 5-0 Angels after three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
High Strikes
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Orlando Cabrera hits a high fastball (above the strike zone) for a double into right field. With the Angels getting hits on pitches in their eyes, maybe the strike zone should be expanded up again. Obviously, players can get hits on high pitches.

Update: Bengie Molina was hitting cleanup for a reason. He takes a pitch at the top of the strikezone into the left field stands to make the score 5-0 Angels. Randy Johnson is not fooling anyone tonight.

Update: Anderson triples as Sheffield falls down on the wet outfield grass. That's the tough half of the cycle for Garret.

Update: Well, he's fooling Juan Rivera, who strikes out for the second time. They are the only two Ks Johnson has in the game. The fans are booing the Big Unit as he leaves the field. The Yankees are in trouble.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Two Out Hits
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The Angels are doing what the Yankees did on Tuesday. They just got their fourth hit with two outs.

Update: The Angels waste their base runner as Kennedy is thrown out stealing after the single.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Byrd Land
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Paul Byrd starts the New York half of the first by striking out Jeter.

Update: The ball is really carrying tonight. A-Rod hits the ball to the wall in right. Vlad leaps but it's off his glove for a double.

Update: Giambi swings at the first pitch and flies out to left.

Update: Kennedy was playing close to second and is in perfect position to get Sheffield's grounder up the middle. The Yankees fail to score in the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Who'll Stop the Rain?
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It's raining in New York as the game gets underway with Figgins flying out to the warning track in right.

Update: They're swinging early and hard as Cabrera flys out to deep center. Guerrero smacks a single to right.

Update: Molina drives a high pitch into center for a single to put runners at 1st and 3rd with two out.

Update: Garret Anderson takes Johnson deep into the right field seats. The Angels are having no problem connecting the the Big Unit's pitches.

Update: Johnson finally gets a strikeout, getting Juan Rivera. Johnson leaves the mound to with a 3-0 deficit and the boos of the fans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox Win!
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Renteria does it again, grounding out to second to send the White Sox to the ALCS.

El Duque put on an amazing performance. The Red Sox were in the perfect position to tie the game and take the lead, and Orlando slammed the door.

The pitching did the job, holding the Red Sox to three runs a game, a little more than half of what they usually score. They played big ball and little ball well. They found the Red Sox weakness and exploited it by throwing strikes.

Congratulations to the White Sox on a tremendous win!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Bobby Jenks is in to close out the game.

Update: Graffanino grounds out to Crede.

Update: Damon strikes out swinging. Renteria has the chance to end another post-season series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 PM | League Division Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Wall Double
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Timlin comes in to pitch the ninth and Pierzynski doubles off the wall.

Update: Crede bunts A.J. to third, and Uribe squeeze him home. The White Sox get the all important insurance run.

Timlin throws the ball away on a pick off and Uribe is at second with one out.

Update: Iguchi strikes out to end the inning. The Red Sox have three outs to get two runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Konerko's Glove
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Nice play by Paul Konerko, diving to his right to rob Nixon of a hit. Mueller hits a broken bat liner to second. The Red Sox have four outs left.

Update: Olerud singles to center, the first hit off El Duque. Varitek will try to keep the inning alive. Pinch runner in for Olerud.

Update: Machado is pinch running.

Update: Varitek strikes out on a pitch at eye level. The White Sox need three more outs to win their first post-season series since 1917.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Eighth
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Papelbon is doing his job. He gets the side 1-2-3 again, and retired all eight batters he faced.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
El Duque vs. Manny
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Hernandez strikes out Renteria, then Ortiz. Papi goes down on three pitches. He starts Manny off with a strike.

Update: Manny grounds out to first. Berman points out that Ortiz and Ramirez may not get another plate appearance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:57 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3
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Papelbon pitches a 1-2-3 seventh, getting three grounders to the middle infielders.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Manny Launches Another
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Ramirez leads off the bottom of the sixth with a homer to left. That cuts the score to 4-3.

I'm surprised Garcia came out for the sixth. He threw 96 pitches and was not throwing a high percentage of strikes. He walked four and struck out just one. Maybe Ozzie wants this to be a one-run victory. :-) Garcia's out now.

Update: Marte relieves.

Update: Nixon singles off Marte. After the home run, he's a leadoff man getting on.

Update: Mueller walks. Men on first and second. Marte's not getting the job done so far.

Update: Olerud walks to load the bases. The Red Sox selectivity is paying off this inning Varitek is coming up to pinch hit and the crowd is going wild. Marte is out of the game.

Update: Orlando Hernandez relieves.

Update: Varitek pops out to Konerko in foul territory.

One commenter asked about the home plate umpire calling pitches. K-Zone is showing the calls are good.

Update: The count on Graffanino is 3-2.

Update: Tony fouls off two 3-2 pitches.

Update: Hernandez induces another pop up with the bases loaded, this time to short.

What will Johnny Damon do?

Update: 3-2 to Damon.

Update: Damon strikes out on what looked like a check swing, but the home plate ump called it. The replay shows he swung.

What a great performance by El Duque! Two pop outs and a strike out with the bases loaded. It's the kind of short but dominant performance that could make him the MVP of the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Konkerko Goes Deep
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Dye walks to open the sixth, then Konkero hits the ball way over the Green Monster. The Red Sox are down 4-2 with 12 outs to go.

Update: Francona's moves are not working in the 6th. He brought in Bradford to get Rowand and Aaron singled. He then brought in Myers to pitch to Pierzynski and A.J. walked. He's going to the bullpen again, this time for Papelbon. Men on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Nice job by Nixon and Rowand. Nixon goes a long way to catch a Crede pop-up in foul territory. Rowand is second is alert enough to tag up and take third.

Update: Papelbon strikes out Uribe swinging. The damage is limited to two runs. The Red Sox bullpen is a bit depleted, as the first two relievers are out of the game. The White Sox also worked Papelbon pretty good, forcing him to throw 16 pitches to two batters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
What Did Johnny Damon Do?
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No one brought a Johnny .316 sign, but Damon just doubled down the right field line with two outs in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: Renteria walks to put two men on for Ortiz. Garcia is working hard today. He's already thrown over 90 pitches and he's been sweating all day.

Update: Ortiz give the first pitch a ride, but it's just a fly out to deep center. The game remains tied at 2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:38 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Papi Pops
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David Ortiz hits a solo home run to straight away center field. The Red Sox pull within a run of the White Sox. It's 2-1 in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: Manny follows with a shot to the opposite field that just gets past the Pesky Pole. The game is tied at 2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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Uribe knocks out the first hit of the game, a two out double. Podsednik follows with a double of his own, driving in Juan. You can't spell Uribe without RBI. :-)

Iguchi follows with a single up the middle to score Podseknik. The White Sox take a quick 2-0 lead.

Update: Dye singles to right, the fourth two-out hit in a row. The White Sox have men on 1st and 3rd.

Update: Konerko flies out to right to end the threat. But the Red Sox now trail in a game they can't lose.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Walking the Leadoff Man
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Once again, Garcia walks the leadoff man, this time Manny Ramirez. I guess he didn't get the throw strikes memo. :-)

Update: With two out, Olerud walks. They've now drawn more walks in this game that they did in the first two.

Update: The rain starts to come down, and Mirabelli grounds to third base to force Olerud at second.

I'm about 1 1/2 hours west of Boston and it's not raining here. I don't think the rain at Fenway right now will last long.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
HBP or K
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After striking out three in a row, Wakefield hits Everett, barely. The White Sox have yet to put the ball in play against Wakefield. He's hit two, struck out three and got the fourth out on a caught stealing.

Update: Rowand hits into an around the horn double play. Both pitchers allowed base runners, but taking out base runners means they've both faced the minimum so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Damon Walks
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Damon starts the bottom of the first with a walk.

Update: Renteria pops out on the infield.

Update: Damon runs on a 3-2 count to Ortiz. Papi hits a medium liner up the middle, but the fielder (third baseman, on the shift, I believe) was right there to catch the ball. Damon is tagged for the double play. Ninety percent of the time, the hits is a single.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
White-Red Sox Under Way
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Wakefield hits Podsednik on an 0-2 count to put the leadoff man on base.

Update: Podseknik runs into an out. Wakefield gave him a high, outside pitch and Mirabelli made a great throw. Wakefield comes back and strikes out Iguchi.

update: Dye strikes out as well. Looks like the knuckle ball is breaking well today..

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Gagne Mounts Off
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Greg Gagne wants the Dodgers to spend more money on better players.

"You need to add a 40-home-run guy and a guy who hits .310, that's two hitters," Gagne told The Los Angeles Times. "You need to re-sign Jeff Weaver, the innings he gives us are priceless.

"The Dodgers make money. The fans show up. You have to give back. As a business, you have to make money. But you have to take risk to make money and in baseball that means paying for players."

McCourt told The Times he was disappointed Gagne chose to go to the media rather than to him with concerns.

McCourt, however, emphasized to The Times he has authorized Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta to spend what it takes to put a winning team on the field. The Times said DePodesta is in Italy for his sister's wedding and was unavailable for comment.

"We want to win as much as Eric Gagne does," McCourt told The Times. "We will spend what it takes to win. I've said it over and over and over again, so all our fans hear it loud and clear."

I like this attitude. If I'm an owner, I want players who desire to win at any cost. My problem is, didn't the Dodgers do that last season? It seemed to me that the players they brought in played well. Drew was good before he was hurt, Kent was fine all year and Lowe was better than I expected. And it's not like Beltre and Green lit the world on fire. I suspect some of this is sour grapes over Tracy leaving:

Gagne also said he isn't happy Tracy was let go.

"Tracy is a great man, a great manager and I thought we should have kept him," Gagne told the newspaper. "He built something here. Now they have to rebuild it. It doesn't happen overnight. Now, whoever comes in has to get to know everybody.

"We didn't lose because of Tracy."

Gagne should realize that DePodesta came from an organization that was pretty good at trading seemingly good closers for even better ones. Gagne may end up on another team sooner than he thinks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:59 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's interesting to note that the Red Sox and Yankees down to the wire division race put them in a position to get their best starter into just one game in the LDS. Tim Wakefield and Randy Johnson each take the mound today in their teams respective game threes.

Wakefield's job is to keep the Red Sox alive for one more day. Tim's strength is his ability to throw strikes with his knuckleball. He only walked 68 batters this season. He'll mix in a fast ball and a curve that slower than his knuckler. When he's right, hitters are off balance all game. Tim gave up five home runs to the White Sox this year in 12 1/3 innings. When he's off, the slow straight stuff doesn't fool anybody.

He'll face Freddy Garcia. Freddy posted about the same ERA as last year despite a fall off in his strikeout rate and a rise in hits allowed per 9. The reason for the steady ERA was poor performances by his opponents with runners in scoring position. They hit just .197, 38 for 193.

In New York, the Prime Time game pits Johnson against Paul Byrd. Byrd relies on superb control, walking just 28 batters this season. Lefties hit Byrd well, posting a .306 batting average and a .473 slugging percentage against the righty. With Posada out of the lineup, I suspect we'll see Tino and Giambi playing, maybe even Cano batting second.

Johnson finished the season with a personal six game winning streak over his last eight starts. He posted a 1.93 ERA in that time. The one thing that worries me about Randy vs. the Angels is that his strikeouts were down, 7.7 per 9 in that time period. He's not as dominant as he once was, and anything that makes it easier for the Angels to get the bat on the ball hurts the Yankees.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Flaherty vs. Posada
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John Flaherty gets the start tonight behind the plate instead of Jorge Posada. This breaks a streak of 67 post-season starts by Posada.

Still, Flaherty has caught all but one of Johnson's last 22 starts, beginning when the Big Unit tossed seven shutout innings against St. Louis on June11. Johnson has gone 12-2 with a 3.29 ERA in games caught by Flaherty this season, and 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA while working with Posada. That includes a 10-2 loss to Detroit on July 1, the last time the Yanks' longtime catcher has called signals for the veteran ace.

I had a discussion with a friend of mine about this the other day. He didn't see how you could start an offensive millstone like Flaherty in the playoffs. He also thought the sample sizes were too small to be able to discern an actual difference between the ability of the catchers to affect a pitcher.

I disagree. If you believe the difference is caused by Flaherty, then he's saved the Yankees over 25 earned runs in around 21 games. Posada isn't that great a hitter that he's going to produce that much offense over 25 games. Posada created 71 runs in 142 games played, or 1/2 a run per game. For all intents and purposes, we'll give John a 0 for runs created. That means the Yankees are losing 1/2 a run offensively, but gaining over a run defensively with Flaherty behind the plate. That seems like the right trade off to me.

It also explains why catchers are not known for their hitting. Catchers can have a huge defensive impact on the game, and that's often worth more than the best offense.

I'd also like to note that this is nothing new. Torre often started Girardi in the post season in 1998 and 1999, even though Posada was clearly the superior offensive player. I trust Torre's recognition of defensive talent behind the plate, and he made the right moves in each case.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 AM | Defense | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
October 06, 2005
Braves Even the Series
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A big win for the Braves tonight as they trounce the Astros 7-1. It always seems that Clemens and Pettitte have bad games in the playoffs, and this was Roger's poor one.

On the other hand, Smoltz found himself in the second inning. After throwing 25 pitches in the first, he threw just 68 over the next six. He was in control, getting strikes on 67 of his 93 pitches.

The Astros offense was weak tonight. If you told me at the start of the game that Taveras would get three hits and Berkman two, I'd think the Astros would be in great shape. But the rest of the order managed just two hits all night. It was another poor outing in a game Clemens started. We'll have baseball Sunday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1)
Unusual Line
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It's not very often you see Clemens with more walks in a game than strikeouts. He walked three so far tonight while striking out just two. It's taken him 92 pitches to get through five innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
On the Radio
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I'm going to be on Hitting to All Fields on TPSRadio in a few mintues.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
LaRoche Allowed to Hit
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Adam LaRoche, batting with two out, is allowed to swing away and drives a double into left center. Palmeiro dives for it and misses, allowing Andruw Jones to score from first on the heels of Chipper. All five Atlanta runs come with two outs tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
McCann Can
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Brian McCann blasts a three-run homer off Roger Clemens in the second inning and Atlanta takes a 3-1 lead. Roger had a great year preventing the long ball, allowing just 11 dingers all year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bunting from the Heart
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You have to wonder about a team that sacrifices with it's number five hitter. LaRoche is a weak hitting first baseman, but if he can't provide power behind Andruw Jones, he should be batting 8th, not 5th.

Francoeur actually draws a walk from Clemens. Will wonders never cease. The Braves have men on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Roger
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Clemens retires the side in order in the first. He did not record a strikeout, but only threw 14 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Braves Underway
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Smoltz starts the game by striking out Biggio.

Update: Taveras and Berkman get bat on the ball and wind up with two singles. Astros are threatening with men on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Ensberg doesn't come through with runners in scoring position this time, grounding to Chipper Jones who forces the runner going to third.

Update: This is the loudest I've heard the Braves fans in a long time. They've been up on their feet all inning.

Update: Lane drives in Berkman with a single to left. The Astros break on top 1-0.

Update: The Astros score just one runs as Smoltz leaves the bases loaded. He did throw 25 pitches in the inning. With a sore shoulder, I doubt he can go many innings at that rate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Win
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St. Louis takes game two of the NLDS 6-2. Isringhausen retires the side easily in the ninth. The win means that there will be at least one more game at Busch Stadium this year.

The Padres put more men on base than the Cardinals, having fifteen reach base by a hit, walk or hit by pitch. The Cardinals managed eleven base runners. The advantage, however, was neutralized by the Padres hitting into four double plays. DPs were not a problem for San Diego this year. They hit into 122, 12th in the NL. But they had a number of righties in the lineup today, which may have cost them a step.

On to San Diego Saturday, where the Padres have to hope the stadium slows down the Cardinals. St. Louis scored six today without much power, so that hope may be in vain.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:05 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Stuck with a Lefty
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The Padres score one run in the 8th, but leave the bases loaded. Bochy pinch-hit for his pitcher with Sweeney, a lefty, and La Russa brought in Flores, a lefty. Because Bochy started a nearly all-righty lineup, he didn't have a righty to put in for Sweeney. Flores struck Mark out to end the threat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:51 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
History Repeats
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For the second time in consecutive innings, the Cardinals score a run on a grounder to Nady. This time, the throw was in plenty of time, but Hernandez takes the throw standing up and can't get down to make the tag. St. Louis now leads 3-0.

Update: The Cardinals squeeze home a run. They're just chipping away at the Padres.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eck RBI
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With the infield in, men on 2nd and 3rd, Eckstein hits a hard shot to the drawn in Nady. Nady smothered the ball, got up and threw home (he had no chance to get Eck at first), and Nunez beat the throw home. St. Louis leads 1-0 in the bottom of the third.

Update: Astacio walks Edmonds to load the bases for Albert Pujols. This looks bad for the Padres.

Update: Pujols draws a walk on a 3-1 pitch. The Cardinals lead 2-0 and now faces Larry Walker. It doesn't get easier for a pitcher vs. the middle of this lineup.

Update: Astacio strikes out Walker. Reggie Sanders gets to bat with the bases loaded again.

Update: Sanders strikes out as well. The strategic walk to Pujols pays off in the Cardinals only getting two runs in the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mulder Hit
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For the second time in the inning, a ball goes off Mulder's body. Giles hit a grounder off him, but Mulder recovered and got the out a first. Randa just hit a hard liner off Mark's left arm, giving Randa a single. Mulder is staying in the game, but he was clearly hurt.

Mulder hits Nady to load the bases with one out.

Update: Ben Johnson strikes out. He swung the bat pretty well for a 16th century playwright. Astacio grounds out to Mulder to end the inning. The Padres let an excellent scoring opportunity go to waste.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Injuries | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Greene Takes a Walk
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Khalil Greene draws a rare walk. Greene only walked 25 times during the regular season, posting a poor .296 OBA, down over 50 points compared to his rookie season. At age 25, Greene should really be improving offensively. That drop is not a good sign for Greene's future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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David Eckstein gets the first hit of the game, a ground single up the middle against Astacio.

Update: After a pop out, Pujols grounds into a double play to end the inning. Pujols was tied for 6th in the NL with 19 GDPs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Padres Cardinals Under Way
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Eric Young grounds out to short to start game 2. Eric did work Mulder, fouling off a number of pitches.

Update: Mulder faces three batters and gets three groundouts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:12 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Comeback Kids
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Jason Giambi and Ken Griffey Jr. won Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

"It's unbelievable. I'm speechless," Giambi said. "I'm definitely honored. It's been a lot of hard work and a long road."

This is another example of steroid abuse being more important to the media than it is to the fans. The fans in general are willing to forgive this transgression.


Griffey's right hamstring, which had gruesomely torn off the bone one fateful day in August of 2004, was reattached by Reds team medical director Dr. Timothy Kremchek with three titanium screws.

Just a few years ago, such an injury probably would have ended Griffey's career. But he reported to Spring Training -- early, no less -- with a mission of putting together his first healthy season in five years.

"The only thing you can do is play as hard as you can on every team that you play for," he said on that day just before the start of the season. "That's not anything different than what I've done the last 16 years. I never set goals. I just play hard. Hopefully, more good things will happen than bad."

It was good to see Griffey's slugging percentage over .500 again. I thought if Griffey had a good year, the Reds would do well also, but the team's pitching was so poor, not even a rejuvenated Griffey could put them over the top.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:49 PM | Awards | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's NL Game 2 day and it's starts at 4 PM EDT as the Padres and Cardinals continue their series. With the injury to Jake Peavy, Pedro Astacio moves into the ace role for San Diego. He probably needs to win two games for the Padres in this series for them to have a chance. We saw what St. Louis hitters did to mediocre pitching on Tuesday, and there's a lot of that in the Padres rotation.

San Diego won Astacio's last five starts, and he pitched well enough for them to win the last seven. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last 45 innings. He's done it by keeping the ball in the park, with just two homers flying out of the field of play in that time.

He'll face Mark Mulder. In four post-season starts, Mulder's ERA is a mere 2.25, yet he's only 2-2. He's struck out 19 while walking only five in 24 innings. If the Cardinals get two starts like that from Mark, they'll be moving on to the next round.

The late matchup is the Geezer Game of the year, pitting Roger Clemens against John Smoltz in Houston. The last time these two faced each other in the post season was game four of the 1999 World Series. The Yankees won that game 4-1, taking the series, but in some ways Smoltz out pitched Roger. Clemens only struck out four in his 7 2/3 innings, while John K'd 11 in his seven innings. But Smoltz gave up four of his six hits in the fourth (all singles) to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead which they never relinquished.

Smoltz is 6-0 in division series play and 14-4 overall in the post season. And while Clemens World Series ERA is very good, he's had trouble in the early rounds, posting a 4.12 combined ERA in the LDS and LCS.

Enjoy!

Correction: Clemens went 7 2/3 innings in his game, not 4 2/3. Sorry about the typo.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:27 PM | Matchups | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)
Firings Continue
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Chuck Lamar is out as general manager of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Stuart Sternberg is expected to take control of the Devil Rays today, ending Vince Naimoli's decade-long tenure as managing general partner of the franchise.

The immediate impact of Sternberg's takeover was felt Wednesday, when Rays general manager Chuck LaMar and several members of his staff were fired.

Given Tampa's poor record of acquiring and developing players, this move was long overdue. LaMar certainly was given time to try new ideas, but nothing seemed to work. With luck, this will be the start of a new and better era for Tampa Bay.

Thanks to Kirk Hoyer for the tip.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:14 PM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Jake Pastorini
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Jake Peavy is talking about pitching game 4 of the NLDS:

"I wouldn't rule it out," Peavy said Wednesday. "We've got a great medical staff taking a look at all of our options, and I feel like we've got some pretty good options that we can take advantage of.

"Hopefully those can make me feel a whole lot better than I feel right now and I'll get back out there."

Peavy said team doctors are considering a numbing injection into the break, on his right side.

If Dan Pastorini could play with broken ribs, why not Peavy:

Pastorini broke the NFL record for getting sacked as a rookie, broke it in 1972 and again in 1973. During one game his rookie season, he was sacked 15 times. Protocol in the Oilers' huddle called for at least one lineman to say "I'm sorry" before Pastorini called the next play. To protect Pastorini's ever-collapsing rib cage, engineers invented football's first flak jacket.


Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Injuries | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed last night's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 AM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Winning Game Plan
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Tony Massoratti in the Boston Herald sums up the White Sox winning strategy:

Of course, the White Sox have a pitching staff that ranked among the best in baseball this season, so let's be clear on what has been the key to the first two games. The White Sox have controlled the point of attack. Chicago pitchers are pounding the strike zone ? an astonishing 68 percent of the White Sox' pitches have been strikes ? and the mighty Red Sox are on their heels as a result. Following Graffanino's error, lost in the rubble was this: In the final six innings, Red Sox hitters saw just 70 pitches. Over the last three years, while leading the major leagues in runs scored, the Red Sox have made a habit of running up opposing pitch totals and getting into enemy bullpens. Now their opponent is doing precisely the opposite to them ? keeping pitch counts down and minimizing at-bats ? which gives the Red Sox virtually no chance given the obvious shortcomings of their club.

We've seen this before, the two best examples in my mind were the 1969 and 1990 World Series. Baltimore and Oakland were selective, power hitting teams. The Mets and Reds took away that selectivity by throwing strikes. The Orioles and Athletics could no longer wait for a hitter's count and hit the mistake. They were taken out of their game and easily beaten.

The Red Sox, however, hit for a high batting average. Will they make the adjustment to be more aggressive at the plate with this pitching staff, just trying to put the ball in play? With Chicago's defense, will that even work?

The White Sox are in a very good spot. The worst that can happen to them is going back to Chicago with one of their top two pitchers on the mound.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The In Play Game
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The Angels won last night's game against the Yankees 5-3, with the catchers trading home runs in the last two half innings. Wang pitched well, but Mark Whicker sums up the problem with a pitcher who strikes out just one batter in a game:

But the problem with all sinkerball pitchers is they eventually have to rely on things, and people, outside their control.

Two other ground balls became errors - a dropped force play by second baseman Robinson Cano in the second, which caused no damage, and a dropped chopper by third baseman Alex Rodriguez, which did. With two outs, Bengie Molina lashed one of Wang's few airborne pitches into center, scoring Orlando Cabrera and tying the Yankees, 2-2 in the sixth.

Lackey didn't blow people away last night, but the Angels defense held. We're now guaranteed three games on Saturday!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Off to Bed
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I'm going to get some sleep. Feel free to use the comments here to update anything interesting that happens in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Chop Single
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Rivera chops one very high in the air. By the time it comes down, Jeter didn't have a chance to throw the DH out. Finley sacrifices, but Wang's throw was late. A great bunt, and luck is starting to favor the Angels.

Update: Kennedy bunts, and it goes high in the air. Wang gets Kennedy, but there are runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out. The top of the order is up.

Update: Figgins flys out to shallow center. It was so shallow that DaVanon couldn't even score.

Update: Cabrera follows up with a line single to left center. That plates two and give LAnaheim their first lead of the series, 4-2. Three of the runs are unearned.

Update: Al Leiter is in to face Anderson.

Update: Anderson flies out. The Yankees have six outs to get two runs or more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:28 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Good Call
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Mike Scioscia calls for a pitch out and Alex Rodriguez is running. The throw beats him by a mile and the Yankees lose their base runner with Giambi at the plate. Escobar strikes out Jason for the second out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:21 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Defensive Lapse
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A-Rod loses a grounder on a high chop by Cabrera. Anderson pops out, and now Wang has to face Guerrero.

Update: Vlad grounds out weakly to third. A-Rod has no problem with that one.

Update: The error costs the Yankees as Molina singles up the middle to drive in Cabrera. The score is tied at 2 in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Erstad grounds out. One third of the game is left to play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 AM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 05, 2005
Lackey's Out
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John Lackey throws a less than outstanding outing. He only allowed 2 runs through 5 2/3, buthe only struck out three while walking five. Yankees batters were 2 for 6 with two walks once John passed 75 pitches. Now the bullpen needs to shut down New York for another three innnings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rivera Rounds the Bases
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Juan Rivera leads off the bottom of the fifth with a long home run well over the fence in center field. Juan cuts the lead to 2-1.

Update: Wang gets out of the inning with three more ground outs. I count 11 of the 15 Angels outs on grounders. The Angels are putting the ball in play, but not very hard, and the Yankees defense is handling the balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lackey's Pitch Count
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Lackey walks his fourth batter of the game, giving A-Rod a free pass with one out in the 5th. He's close to 75 pitches, where he starts to have trouble.

Update: Lackey passes 75 pitches and Giambi smacks a double to right center. A-Rod goes to third on the play.

Update: Sheffield chops one off the plate, grounding out to third and scoring Rodriguez. Yankees lead 2-0.

Update: A wild pitch send Giambi to third.

Update: Figgins makes a great play at third to steal a hit from Matsui, and Erstad makes a great scoop at first to finish the play. The Yankees get one run in the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Covering the Bases
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Vlad Guerrero gets hit by a pitch and tries to steal again. As he goes, Bengie Molina grounds one up the middle. It looks like it's going through for a hit, but Cano ran over to cover second and is in a perfect position to field the ball and make the throw to get Molina. An unlucky break for the Angels. The Yankees lead 1-0 after four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Double Double
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Matsui and Cano hit back-to-back doubles in the second inning to give the Yankees the early 1-0 lead. Cano drove in the first New York runs last night as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chien Music
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Wang gets three ground outs in the first inning, retiring the side in order. Wang used just ten pitches to get through the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees-Angels Underway
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Jeter grounds out to third on a very close play to start the game.

Update: Lackey gets the Yankees 1-2-3. Giambi breaks two bats, the last as he softly lines out to the pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth in Chicago
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The Red Sox hold the White Sox scoreless in the 8th. The White Sox need three more outs to put Boston's backs to the wall.

Update: Jenks remains in to go for the two inning save. Shades of the Goose!

Update: Olerud taps back to the mound for the first out.

Update: Graffanino doubles into the gap in left center. Podsednik cuts it off, but can't throw Tony out at second. Scott had to slide to stop the ball.

Update: Damon pops out to the catcher in foul territory. It's up to Renteria.

Update: Renteria grounds out, leaving Ortiz on deck. The White Sox take the first two games at home, and the Red Sox need another amazing comeback to advance to the next round.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Jenks Eighth
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Guillen is using Bobby Jenks in the 8th inning against Manny Ramirez. It looks to me as if Guillen thinks this is the save inning, and he's bringing in his best now to get that save. It's one of the advantages of having more than one pitcher who can close.

Update: Manny flies out to center. The announcers just said that Rowand has a dozen putouts tonight. From what I've see of Aaron this year, he certainly covers a lot of ground. I can't wait to see how the Probabilistic Model of Range rates Rowand.

Update: Nixon walks with two outs, putting the tying run on base.

Update: Jenks does his job, getting Mueller to ground out to second. The Red Sox will have 8, 9 and 1 batting in the ninth. They'll need to get two on to reach Ortiz.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Iguchi Gotcha
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While I was broadcasting the radio show, an error by Graffanino on a inning ending double play ball gives Chicago the opening they needed. Iguchi comes up with two out and two on and delivers a home run off David Wells to give the White Sox a 5-4 lead.

Buehrle settled down after allowing four runs over the first three innings. He's pitched four scoreless since then. Buehrle's only issued one walk tonight, and that's the only walk the Red Sox drew in the series. That's pretty amazing vs. a team that is among the most selective in the majors. When you don't issue walks, you reduce a team OBA to it's batting average. The Red Sox had the best BA in the majors, but they can't score runs at the same high rate without the base runners.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Ortiz Doubles
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With Damon on first, Ortiz doubles to left. He hustled to stretch it into a double, ending in a belly flop side that registered on the seismometers in California. The White Sox walk Ramirez to load the bases and pitch to Varitek.

Update: Varitek foils the IBB with a single to drive in Damon. It's 3-0 Boston in the third. The Red Sox are getting the bat on the ball vs. Buehrle and good things are happening.

Update: Nixon grounds to Konerko, who doesn't throw home to get Ortiz. Instead, he tries for the 3-6-3 DP and doesn't get Nixon. The Red Sox score and lead 4-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Win
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Houston turns a double play to end the game. Despite the Astros playing the game as if it were going to be close, the Astros managed to score a ton of runs, winning the game 10-5. Ensberg was the big hitter, driving in five runs with three hits and a walk. Pettitte wasn't exactly dominant. He only gave up four hits in seven innings, but two were of the home run variety. But he pitches well enough to get the win, something that was rare for that kind of performance early in the Astros season.

We'll see an all-time great matchup tomorrow with Clemens facing Smoltz in the geezer game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Braves Fighting in the Ninth
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Coming into the inning down 10-4, the Braves scored a run and now have two on with one out. Houston is forced to warm up Brad Lidge.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sox Game Underway
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Johnny Damon starts the game off with a hit as he grounds one by Crede. Joe looked fooled by the grounder as he stabbed at it late.

Update: Renteria finishes setting the table with a line double over Crede's head. Runners at 2nd and 3rd for Ortiz.

Update: Buehrle strikes out Mr. Clutch. Same thing happened yesterday in the first. Now it's Manny's turn.

Update: Manny does his job, taking the first pitch over Podsednik's head to drive in two. Red Sox take advantage of their first inning runners today to get off to the early lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight and every Wednesday at 8 PM EDT. Check out their other sports programming as well.

You can also call in at 888-985-0555 and leave a question for the show, or stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:38 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Playing for Two?
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The Astros get the first two on in the 8th. Pettitte bunts them over and Biggio gets walked to load the bases and set up the double play. It's worked so far for the Braves, but this time Houston is sending up Jeff Bagwell.

Update: Bagwell drives a liner past Chipper Jones to drive in a run and give the Astros a 6-3 lead. Now the Braves have to face Berkman with the bases juiced.

Update: Forster comes in and strikes out Berkman. Now he'll face RBI maven Morgan Ensberg.

Update: Ensberg draws a walk on a 3-2 count, driving in his 5th run of the game. Biggio scores on a wild pitch and the score is now 8-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:26 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ground Rule Pitcher
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Andy Pettitte drives a double to left, the ball bouncing into the seats. And how often do you see the leadoff hitter bunt the pitcher over? Garner keeps giving away outs. The games close in the 7th, and the Jones boys have the power to bring the Braves back quickly.

Update: Taveras makes an out but doesn't score Pettitte. They intentionally walk Berkman, and Morgan Ensberg drives in his fourth run of the game with a single. Garner got the run he wanted, and that's it for Tim Hudson.

Update: Devine comes into the game and hits Lane to load the bases.

Update: Palmeiro drives the ball to the warning track in right for the final out of the inning. The Astros play for one run and that's all they get.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Over Andruw's Head
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Brad Ausmus launched a fly ball to the wall in deep center. It was funny, because I expected Andruw Jones to make the catch, and suddenly the ball in falling far behind him. I think it was the combination of playing shallow and an unusual poor jump for the center fielder.

Update: After Ausmus scores in the top of the inning, Giles doubles and Andruw sends one over everybody's head as his two-run homer makes the score 4-3 Houston in the bottom of the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Pettitte in Control
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Andy Pettitte picks up two strikeouts in the third to give him three for the game. He's in control and efficient today, throwing just 32 pitches, 22 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Wild About Hudson
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After a Biggio doubles leading off the third, Hudson issues his third walk, this time to Taveras. Willy only drew 25 walks in almost 600 AB this season. He follows that with another base on balls, the second in the game to Berkman. The bases are loaded with nobody out. We'll see if Hudson stays successful with runners in scoring position.

Update: Ensberg gets his second RBI single of the game, driving in two. Morgan led the Astros with 101 RBI during the regular season.

Update: Hudson hits Orlando Palmeiro with two outs. Once again, the bases are loaded.

Update: Everett grounds out to end the inning. Houston scores the minimum when sending eight to the plate. Hudson has now thrown 21 of 47 pitches for balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Swinging Early
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With two innings in the books, Pettitte and Hudson aren't throwing many pitches. Pettitte threw just 19 (13 for strikes) while Hudson is at 20, despite walking two. The batters are seeing pitches they like early in the count.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chipper Shot
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With two outs, Chipper Jones hits an opposite field home run off Pettitte to tie the score at 1. That was Chipper's ninth in LDS play. Pettitte gets out of the inning with no more damage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Houston Atlanta Underway
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Craig Biggio starts the game with a single off Tim Hudson.

Update: Morgan Ensberg drives the ball to centerfield for an RBI single in the first. The Astros have two on and one out.

Update: Hudson gets Lane to ground into a double play to end the inning. Lane only hit 10 GDP's all season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Macha Moving On
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Peter Gammons just reported on Baseball Tonight that Ken Macha and the Athletics parted ways. The two sides were negotiating a new contract and were reported to be far apart. Gammons said Beane would not meet Macha's proposal, so the two broke up.

I'm not surprised Beane didn't budge. He knows the value of every player, and I'm sure he knows the value of every manager. If he's not going to pay a great player, he's not going to pay a manager.

I'm mixed on how good or bad a job Macha did. You might argue he got the more wins out of these teams than were expected. You might also argue that the A's choked the last three years; in 2003 to the Red Sox and the last two years to the Angels.

In the final analysis, the manager of Oakland doesn't matter that much. He just needs to implement the plan of the front office and offer leadership to the players. I still wish Beane would get someone who is as talented strategy-wise as Beane is wheeling and dealing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:55 PM | Management | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
What Would Johnny Damon Do?
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My good friend Jim Storer pointed out to me today that Johnny Damon finished the season with a .316 batting average. He thinks someone this post season should sit behind home plate with a sign that reads:

Johnny
.316
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM | Players | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Dierker's Analysis
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Larry Dieker says he was wrong to think the Astros week offense would keep them out of the playoffs.

To be fair, the hitters helped a lot after the slow start. It took Lance Berkman about two weeks to get going after returning from knee surgery. That's about the same time Morgan Ensberg went on a rampage that landed him on the All-Star team.

Neither Willy Taveras nor Craig Biggio was as good at getting on base as you would like your first two hitters to be, but Taveras' speed and Biggio's power made up for their low on-base averages.

The offense still wasn't great, but the hitters gave the pitchers enough breathing room to stay alive. I can think of two weak-hitting teams that beat the Braves in the playoffs — the 1969 Mets and the 1998 Padres.

I have to keep reminding myself it's about pitching, pitching, pitching and adequate fielding.

Forget the hitting.

Look at it this way. Last year, the team had good hitting. This year it did not. This year, three big bats were absent — Jeff Kent, Carlos Beltran and Jeff Bagwell. But one more arm is present — Andy Pettitte.

That could be all it takes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Star Wars
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BUEHRLE: He is here...

GUILLEN: David Wells! What makes you think so?

BUEHRLE: A tremor in the Force. The last time I felt it was in the
presence of my old master.

GUILLEN: Surely he must be dead by now.


Looks like we'll have a little Vader vs. Obi Wan tonight in Chcago.

``Growing up, I watched David Wells pitch,'' Buehrle, 26, said at U.S. Cellular Field before yesterday's ALDS opener. ``He's a lefty. I kind of follow what he does. When he was on the team, he would take me out, on and off the field. I would sit next to him and learn what he has to say about baseball.''

Said a chuckling Wells, who turned 42 in June: ``I'm glad I taught him all those good things about baseball. He's an exceptional pitcher. Obviously, he's an All-Star. You know, the short time I spent with him, I talked to him a lot, and his ability was already there.''

It's sure to be battle of galactic proportions:

BUEHRLE: When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.

WELLS: Only a master of the change-up, Mark.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Looking for a Job
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HireMeTheo.com is a new blog dedicated to the proposition of getting the author hired by the Boston Red Sox. To that end he's doing very nice statistical research. Stop by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The last of the League Division Series gets underway this afternoon as the Atlanta Braves host the Houston Astros. Andy Pettitte faces off against Tim Hudson in a rematch of their meeting in Game 2 of the 2001 ALDS. Hudson was the winner that night, as he and Jason Isringhausen combined on a seven hit shutout beating the Yankees 2-0. Looking at the Oakland lineup, Damon, Giambi, Dye, Hernandez, Hudson and Isringhausen are all in the playoffs for other teams this year.

Pettitte was the best pitcher in the National League after the All-Star break. (Not a bad performance by lefties in general.) He gave up very few hits, which is unusual for Andy. Pettitte tends to put a lot of runners on base, then makes up for it by picking off runners and inducing double plays. Teams only posted a .248 OBA against the lefty in the second half.

Hudson took a step backward this season, but it didn't cost him in wins or ERA. His ERA only differed from his 2004 mark by .01, despite giving up 12 more home runs and allowing 21 more walks in about the same number of innings. The homers were mostly solo shots, and Hudson allowed a meager .215 batting average with runners in scoring position.

It's a battle of lefties in Chicago this evening as David Wells faces Mark Buehrle in game 2 of their ALDS matchup. I hear the Red Sox are starting Olerud today vs. the lefty while they started Millar vs. Contreras in game 1. Francona seems to be basing this on batter vs. pitcher stats. Millar is 1 for 18 against Buehrle, Olerud 1 for 11. It seems to me those sample sizes are small enough that the platoon difference might be more meaningful. Lefties have a higher batting average against Buehrel this season than righties, but righties have the better OBA.

Buehrle suffered a rough early September but finished with strong starts against the Twins and Indians. He did not pitch well against Boston this season, allowing 22 hits in 13 innings pitched while walking five and striking out just 3.

I thought David Wells would do poorly in the cozy confines of Fenway Park, but he pitched very well at home, posting an 8-1 record and a 3.07 ERA. Away from Fenway was a different story; a 7-6 record and a 5.56 ERA. The biggest reason was the extra 11 home runs he allowed in road games.

The Yankees send rookie Chien-Ming Wang against John Lackey as they go for a sweep on the road vs. LAnaheim. I don't quite understand the switch from Chacon to Wang for game 2. My only explanation is that Chacon pitches very well at Yankee Stadium so Torre wants him in game 4 there. Neither is much of a strikeout pitcher, and with the Angels loving to put the ball in play, they'll get plenty of opportunities. One other thought; there's a fifteen hour time difference between California and Taiwan. By starting him in the late game, the people back home will be able to watch him in the middle of the day.

John Lackey fell one strikeout short of the 200 mark this season. He picked up a few vs. New York this season, fanning 12 in 10 2/3 innings while winning both starts. Scioscia tends to got too far with the pitcher, however. After the 75th pitch, the batting average against John goes to .335. That's 74 hits in 221 at bats. I suspect after losing game one, Scioscia won't want to stick with Lackey too long if he gets in trouble.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:57 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 04, 2005
Mo Playoff Relief
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With a three run lead, the Yankees are bringing in Mariano Rivera to finish the game in the ninth.

Update: Rivera issues the 15th walk of his post-season career to Guerrero. Vlad immediately steals second. There's one out.

Update: A perfect example of good things happening when you put the ball in play against the Yankees. Erstad bounces one up the middle. Cano doesn't get in front of the ball and it bounces over his glove. Vlad scores and the Yankees lead is now 4-2.

Update: Molina forces Erstad. The Yankees would have had a DP but the supposedly great fielding Tino Martinez could not hang on to the throw. On the replay, it looked like Tino took his eye off the ball. Kotchman pinch hitting.

Update: Rivera breaks Kotchman's bat, and the Yankees win 4-2. Home field advantage switches to the Yankees. It looks like Mussina is going to need a good rest between starts to be effective.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Molina Mashes
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Bengie Molina puts the Angels on the board with a smash to straight away center field. Molina set a career high in home runs with 15 and slugging percentage with a .446 mark in 2005. The Yankees lead 4-1 in the bottom of the seventh.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Mussina Out
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Mike Mussina gets the first two outs of the sixth inning, then gives up a single to Vlad. At 98 pitches, Mike comes out of the game. He gave up just four hits and no walks while striking out four. It was a good, but not dominating performance. If Leiter can get out of the inning, Mussina's ERA will be 0.00.

Update: Guerrero tries to steal and ends the inning getting caught. Not the best strategy.

What Mussina did well tonight was use the Angels desire to make contact against them. He did a good job of getting them to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lots of Pitches
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A typical Yankees game, this one is going to take a long time. The starters have combined to throw 148 pitches so far (both are over 70). Yankees are still up 4-0, and with a walk to Jeter in the fourth, all their runners have reached with two out.

Update: Sheffield gets the first hit for the Yankees with less than two out, a one out single to left in the top of the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hart Leaves Texas
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The Ivy League infiltration of baseball front offices continues. John Hart retired from the Texas Rangers today. He'll be replaced by Jon Daniels, a 28-year-old Cornell graduate.

Hart, whose teams won six division titles and twice went to the World Series in his last seven years in Cleveland ending in 2001, will be replaced by Daniels, who at 28 years, 41 days, is about 10 months younger than Theo Epstein was when he became Boston's GM on Nov. 25, 2002. Daniels was promoted from assistant GM and Hart will remain a team consultant.

"He's got a truly brilliant mind, he's a walking baseball encyclopedia," Texas owner Tom Hicks said of Daniels. "I think his youth is an asset to us. ... I did my first leveraged buyout when I was about that age. Young people can kind of do things in this life."

Leveraged buyouts are probably easier than building a pitching staff in Texas. Hart was great at building offenses, but his pitching staff rarely came together. Cleveland was very good in 1995, but they were based on two veterans, Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser. He's never built a young, long term staff. It will be Daniels job to do better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3
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Colon gets the side in order in the 3rd. Yankees still lead 4-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Semi Colon
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Bartolo strikes out Williams and Crosby to start the second, then Jeter singles. All five hits against Colon have come with two outs tonight.

Colon just hit A-Rod in the side of the ribs. Alex looks like he's in pain, but he's taking first base.

Update: Giambi doubles down the right field line to drive in Jeter. The Yankees are now six for seven with a HBP with two outs in this game.

Update: Colon strikes out Sheffield, giving him four K in the game. The Yankees are six for eight when putting the ball in play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Easy First for Mussina
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Mike gives up one hit on a hanging pitch to Cabrera, but that's it. Mussina handled Guerrero well, throwing two strikes by him before he grounds a low ball back to Mike to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Clean Helmet
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I want to commend Garrett Anderson on his clean batting helmet. Especially compared to Guerrero and Cabrera.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 PM | Uniforms | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Full Colon
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Bartolo is working well in the first. He's started each hitter with a strike, and didn't throw a called ball until his seventh pitch.

Update: The Yankees are very good at hitting balls in the strike zone, and three straight singles by Giambi, Sheffield and Matsui load the bases.

Update: Cano is the first batter he starts with a ball. Probably a good thing, as Cano might swing at that pitch.

Update: Anderson was playing Robinson Cano shallow in left, and Cano lined the ball over his head to clear ths bases. The Yankees domination of Colon continues. Posada grounds out, but the Yankees lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rowand and the Wall
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John Olerud just hit one to the wall in left center. Aaron Rowand went full speed toward it, just missed catching the fly and hit the wall. I don't know about the intelligence of going into the wall in a 14-2 game, but the fans love the hustle.

Graffanino flies out to the wall in left to end the game. Final score, two touchdowns and two extra points to a safety.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:06 PM | League Division Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Lucky 13
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A.J. Pierzynski hits his second home run of the game to stretch the score to 13-2. Arroyo entered the game in the 8th and gave up the homer and then walks Crede.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:50 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy's Fractured Ribs
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This is very bad news for the Padres playoff hopes. Jake Peavy broke two ribs during today's game.

Initial X-rays were negative, but the Padres sent Peavy to Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis for an MRI, which revealed the fractured rib. A team spokesman said Peavy might have also broken his ninth rib, and that additional tests were being done.

Padres manager Bruce Bochy said the team didn't know when Peavy suffered the injury.

He could break them twisting on a play, or even coughing. Even if the Padres manage to get by St. Louis, I don't give them much chance of going past that without their ace.

Update: The Fox pre-game show just reported that Peavy broke his rib in the Padres celebration after they clinched. Those player piles are funny until someone loses the opening game of the LDS. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:47 PM | Injuries | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)
Home Run Derby
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The White Sox hit four home runs so far today. Chicago is making a lot of contact, as they've only struck out once and walked once. They have just nine hits, but three hit batters and nine runs on the homers have helped them to a 12-2 lead after seven.

Contreras issued no free passes through seven. He's thrown 64 of 92 pitches for strikes to keep the Red Sox from being patient at the plate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:33 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Threaten
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A single, bunt single and an error on the play put Red Sox at 2nd and 3rd with none out in the fourth.

Update: Contreras throws a wild pitch to let in the first Red Sox run of the game. Jose tied teammate Freddy Garica for the AL lead in wild pitches with 20. Millar follows with a double to cut the lead to 6-2.

Update: Do you think A.J. has anything to do with all the wild pitches?

Update: Varitek bunts, and Millar gets thrown out at third. That's two bunts in this inning for the Red Sox. Is that really the way to come back from a huge lead? Since I can't see them, were these sacrifices or were the batters bunting for hits?

Update: I'm heading home. More later.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
King Kong Konerko
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Paul Konerko ends his post-season drought with a solo home run in the third inning. It's 6-0.

On the next pitch, Everett lines up the middle and hits Matt Clement in the leg. The radio announcers say he's limping.

Update: Clement did throw out Everett on the play, preventing a hit. He's staying in the game after making some practice pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:14 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Contreras Ks
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Jose Contreras is doing a good job of keeping the Red Sox bats off the ball. He's struck out four through three innings and thrown twice as many strikes as balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Almanzar Suspended
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Carlos Almanzar was busted for testing positive for a banned substance. He's been on the DL most of year. He'll start his suspension at the start of next season. I don't know if it means anything, but 40% of the players suspended this season were relievers. It looks performance enhancers aren't just for sluggers.

And what happened to the 50 players who were about to be suspended? I'd like to know the source of this rumor, since the person obviously lied and shouldn't be trusted for future information.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | Cheating | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Blogging from Music School
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My daughter is at her violin lesson, but due to the wonders of modern technology and wi-fi, I can listen to the game and blog on my computer. On the way over, I heard A.J. Pierzynski hit a three run home run. So the White Sox channeled both Mauch and Weaver in the first inning! That's a pretty good combination.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ozzie Mauch
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Ozzie Guillen channels Gene Mauch and orders Iguchi to bunt. The sacrifice is successful, and I'm sure Theo is smiling at getting the free out.

Update: Clement hits Dye, his second hit batter of the inning. Twice during the at bat, Varitek set up outside and Matt threw inside. He doesn't have control of his pitches in the first inning.

Update: Podsednik steals third and scores on a Konerko groundout. Little ball gets them the early lead, 1-0.

Correction: Iguchi, not Taguchi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:22 PM | League Division Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Contreras Strikes Out Ortiz
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David Ortiz strikes out in the first with a man on second. He swung at ball four. Of course, striking out in first doesn't really matter, since we all know that late innings home runs are the only way to win games. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peeved at Peavy
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Jake Peavy certainly deserved the loss today. He's the one dependable pitcher the Padres start. A decent outing from Jake and the Padres win this game. Now they need to figure out how to win three games with Jake just starting one more time, and how to shut down the middle of the Cardinals order. St. Louis put themselves in a great position to win this series by neutralizing their opponents strength.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Padres Not Giving Up
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The Padres scored two runs in the 9th so far. They still have 2 on with two out. It's 8-4. The Padres hitters didn't give up, and La Russa's revolving bullpen looks vulnerable.

Update: Giles singles to center, driving in Klesko and bringing Fick to the plate against Isringhausen. It's a good thing Izzy didn't come in with a save opportunity.

Update: Fick singles to load the bases.

Update: Ramon Hernandez strikes out, swinging at three pitches that he had no chance of hitting. The final is 8-5.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Take Him to Detroit
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It looks like Jim Leyland will be the new manager of the Tigers. Detroit is going to hold a news conference this afternoon.

It's a good choice. And it's also a positive sign for the Tigers, as I don't think Jim would be going to Detroit unless he thought they were ready to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:47 PM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Young at Heart
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Eric Young homers leading off the 8th inning. He pinch hit for Roberts. Young had two homers all year, both in August.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Carpenter Gone
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Chris Carpenter just removed from the game before the start of the seventh inning. It appears he had some physical problem. Maybe the series isn't over for the Padres just yet.

Update: Carpenter was complaining about cramps in his hand. Doesn't sound serious. Joe Morgan makes the point that Chris was probably dehydrated.

Update: The first two batters reach against Thompson. They have men on first and third for Greene.

Update: San Diego is on the board after a Sac Fly by Greene. They really need base runners, however, not fly ball outs.

Update: Carpenter was indeed dehydrated. Good call by Joe!

Update: La Russa brings in Flores with two out and a man on first. Why is he playing musical bullpen with a seven run lead?

Update: Flores strikes out Nady to end the inning. Doesn't this game really call for a mop up guy? Flores is the set-up man with Reyes out. Why risk an injury in a blow out?

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
The List
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Turn off the sound on ESPN if you're not that interested in every Cardinals player that drove in four runs in a post-season game. Jon and Joe have been at it for two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:54 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
They Should Name a Candy Bar After Him
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Reggie Sanders ends Jake Peavy's day with a grand slam into the left field seats. That makes the score 8-0 in the bottom of the fifth. Peavy was behind 3-0, and Reggie got the green light and smoked the pitch.

Peavy and Carpenter each struck out and walked three. The big difference is that when the ball was put in play against Jake, it found a place to fall, while St. Louis was able to turn them into double plays.

Update: There's a big difference between the teams in DER. St. Louis finished the season at .704, third in the NL. The Padres' DER was .690, 12th. We're seeing that difference today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:36 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Klesko Getting On
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Bochy moved Klesko up to the two slot today, and it's paid off with Ryan walking and singling in the third. I don't understand, however, why Bochy put Loretta between Klesko and Giles. Did he not want two lefties in a row? The Padres have 2 on and 1 out in the third.

Update: Loretta hits into a 5-3 double play to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:48 PM | League Division Series | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy Throwing Strikes
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Jake Peavy gave up a home run to Edmonds in the first inning, but he's efficient and throwing strikes. Through the first two innings, He's thrown 19 pitches, 17 for strikes. He's struck out two. The Cardinals lead 1-0 in the third on the strength of that home run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Black Table Preview
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Will Leitch has his yearly preview of the playoffs up at The Black Table. And be sure to check out Will's new venture, Deadspin.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:35 AM | Post Season | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The 2005 MLB playoffs kick off this afternoon with the best pitching matchup of the day as Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres visit Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals. Peavy showed his 2004 NL ERA title was no fluke, posting a 2.88 ERA and walking fewer batters in more innings. Jake's great strength, however, is his ability to strike out batters. Over the last two seasons, Peavy trails only Johan Santana and Randy Johnson in strikeouts per 9 innings.

Chris Carpenter had a great year but a poor September. He won his 21st game on Sept. 8th and did not win again. He finished the season allowing 22 earned runs over his last 21 2/3 innings, probably killing his chance at winning the Cy Young award. It's possible Carpenter was taking it easy since the Cardinals clinched early. It's also possible that past arm trouble is back to haunt him.

One monkey wrench in the St. Louis machine is the injury to Al Reyes. Carpenter is capable of going deep into the game, making Reyes' role moot. And I don't really see the problem. Randy Flores had nearly identical strikeout and walk numbers. With luck, this injury will prevent La Russa from using his one pitcher per batter strategy as much.

The four St. Louis power hitters had a field day against Padres pitching this season. Brian Giles did most of the damage against St. Louis, but that's pretty much the story of San Diego.

The all Sox series gets underway at 4 PM Eastern. (I wonder if Carlton Fisk will throw out the first pitch?) Matt Clement faces surprise starter Jose Contreras. Guillen is going with the hot hand in game 1. Over the last two months, Jose pitched the best of the veteran starters on the team. The left-right balance in the Boston lineup shouldn't bother Contreras as he threw equally well vs. both sides of the plate.

Matt Clement gets the nod for game 1 from Terry Francona. He was the leader of the rotation in the first half, but posted a 3-4 record with a 5.72 ERA after the All-Star break. The Red Sox best pitcher down the stretch, Tim Wakefield, only gets one start in this series due to his use on Saturday with the Red Sox season going down to the wire.

The Red Sox lineup is full of tough outs, and you can see that in their season statistics vs. the White Sox. Nine players with at least five plate appearances had OBA's of .360 or better vs. Chicago this year. Quite a few Pale Hose did well in getting on base vs. Boston, but they seemed to be divided into two even groups; those that did a fantastic job and those that did very poorly.

In Anaheim, Bartolo Colon will be the second 21-game winner of the day taking the hill. He'll be opposed by Mike Mussina. The Yankees pounded Bartolo this season. He gave 15 runs, 10 earned in 10 2/3 innings. He gave up 26 home runs all year, 7 in two starts vs. New York. Alex Rodriguez hits Colon very well, going 19 for 43 in their careers with 13 extra-base hits, seven for homers.

Mike Mussina is difficult to figure. He took a three week rest and shut out Baltimore for six innings. Mike faced them again on normal rest and didn't make it out of the second inning. Mussina's rested the last six days, which the Yankees hope will be a positive.

Mussina's seems to be all or nothing to batters. He strikeout number are good, but he still gives up lots of hits. It seems that if you can put the ball in play against Mike, good things happen. And the Angels are very good at putting the ball in play.

Vlad vs. the Yankees shows just how difficult it is to contain the former MVP. The Yankees kept him off base, holding him to a .326 OBA. But Guerrero still managed 13 RBI on just 11 hits. He hit .332 this season with men on base, and 32 of his 63 extra-base hits came in that situation.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Roundtable
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Here's the first part of a Cardinals roundtable discussion at Viva el Birdos. For fans of the best team in baseball, they seem a bit worried:

So, awesome. No pitching, no relief, no health, and our manager's a nutjob.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Jim Tracy Looking for Work
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Jon Weisman's prediction from the other day came true last night as DePodesta and Jim Tracy decided to part ways. Jon has more Dodger Thoughts on the press conferences.

From what I can tell, the philosophical differences don't seem to be over on-base average or DIPS, but about keeping familiar players on the roster. From Weisman's prediction piece:

Tracy told the press that the only way you win a division title is with familiar faces on the team. That's the Jim Tracy Secret to Managerial Success. It's a fallacy, he told the Daily News, to think that a manager should mold together the talent he has been given.

What in the world else is left for you to do, Jim?

So what kind of manager will DePodesta hire as a replacement? The main attribute of the skippers hired by the Moneyball GMs is that they'll do what the front office tells them. They don't seem to go for the Earl Weaver/Whitey Herzog/Davey Johnson types that know what to do with players who get on base and/or hit for power. It seems the obvious combination to me and I'd love to see someone like DePodesta work with a smart manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:16 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Cool Standings Predictions
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Cool Standings predicts the LDS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 03, 2005
Atlanta vs. Houston
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AtlantaHouston
2005ValueNL RankValueNL Rank
Runs per Game4.754th4.2511th
Batting Average.2656th.25613th-T
On-Base Average.3335th-T.32212th
Slugging Percentage.4353rd.40811th
ERA3.986th3.512nd

Looking at the stats in the table above, I'm surprised either of these teams made the playoffs. In the case of the Astros, great pitching and lousy hitting usually lands you in the middle of the pack. In the case of the Braves, while their hitting and pitching are both above average, neither is stand out great. I would have guessed the Braves would be fighting for a Wild Card instead of winning the division.

The difference in the offenses is the spread of talent. The Astros have two terrific hitters in Berkman and Ensberg. Both get on base and hit for power. But the talent falls off steeply after that. Not a lot of people getting on base, but there are a good number of extra-base hits. The Braves just have Chipper Jones doing both extemely well. But the falloff from Chipper is gradual. The Braves had eight players with at least 100 plate apperances with OBA's over .340. Among those, of course, is Andruw Jones who supplied plenty of power.

On the pitching side, this is one of the rare times that Atlanta goes into a series without the dominant staff. If all you need are three starters in the playoffs, it's difficult to find a better trio than Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt. They finished 1,2 and 7 in the majors in ERA. The three combined to allow just 46 home runs (Eric Milton gave up 40 all by himself). And while Atlanta's starters had an excellent 3.65 ERA, the bullpen was at 4.74, walking batters at a much higher rate than the starters.

So the question on my mind is, can Ensberg and Berkman supply enough runs to support great performances by the big three? My guess is a series of very low scoring close games. And if it comes down to the bullpens, my money is on Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)
New York vs. LAnaheim
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LAnaheimNew York
2005ValueAL RankValueAL Rank
Runs per Game4.707th5.472nd
Batting Average.2706th.2762nd
On-Base Average.3259th.3552nd
Slugging Percentage.4099th.4504th
ERA3.683rd4.529th

The Yankees and Angels meet in a rematch of the 2002 ALDS in which the Anaheim Angels knocked the Yankees out of the World Series for the first time in four years. One of the big reasons the Angels won that series was their ability to put the ball in play. The Yankees pitchers were a great strikeout staff; the problem was the Angels didn't strike out. The porous Yankees defense let ball after ball through the infield or fall in for hits and the Angels scored 31 runs to take the series in four games.

Under Mike Scioscia, the Angels stuck to that philosophy. They're near the bottom of the AL in walks and strikeouts. They are second in the major in balls put in play (trailing the Oakland Athletics by 11). The Yankees pitchers are no longer a great strike out staff. Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are not what they used to be, and Chacon and Small just don't rack up the Ks. Keep your eyes out for balls that look like outs off the bat and end up going through the infield or falling in the gaps in the outfield.

Even with all the balls in play, the Angels don't have a very good offense. Chone Figgins is good, Adam Kennedy had a great year for him and Vlad is super. Otherwise, I don't think there's anyone else on that team I'd really want offensively. Vlad is just so good, however, whenever anyone is on base you're in danger of giving up a few runs. He's one of the most successful hackers I've ever seen. He expands the strike zone, swinging at balls at his eyes and way inside and outside, but he can actually hit those pitches. There were probably a number of times this season when a pitcher threw a purpose pitch out of the strike zone only to see it land beyond the outfield fence.

In Sheffield, A-Rod and Giambi, the Yankees have three dangerous sluggers. Surrounding them are Jeter and Matsui, giving New York five offensive players with 25 win shares or more. That's a lot of offense packed into a small space. These players don't hack much. They wait for their pitch, and if they don't get it are willing to take the free base.

And the Yankees should see some pitches to hit. Byrd, Colon and Washburn challenge batters to put the ball in play. With a good defense, they can get away with that. They don't strike out many, and they don't walk many. You'd think that would work to the Yankees benefit, but while Colon was hammered by New York, Byrd and Washburn combined for 22 very good innings against the club. And the one starter with a high K rate, John Lackey, beat the Yankees twice while posting a 2.53 ERA.

My gut is that this series will turn on how many Johnson and Mussina can strike out. If they're both around nine per nine innings, New York should be fine. If there are lots of balls in play against these two, the Angels will have their runners for the inevitable Vlad blast.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:26 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Boston vs. Chicago
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ChicagoBoston
2005ValueAL RankValueAL Rank
Runs per Game4.579th5.621st
Batting Average.26211th-T.2811st
On-Base Average.32211th-T.3571st
Slugging Percentage.4257th-T.4542nd
ERA3.611st-T4.7411th

A few years ago Bill James developed a formula (not published) that allowed you to predict an expected value for a winning percentage of one team vs. the other, batting average of a batter vs. a pitcher, or runs scored by one team against another. All you need to know is the value for each of the opponents and the league average.

Given that the Red Sox offense and White Sox pitching are at extremes in the American League, I thought it would be interesting to run the numbers and see who's better off in this matchup; the team with the good pitching or the team with the good offense. Using this formula, the Red Sox are expected to score 4.58 runs per game against the White Sox. The White Sox are expected to score 4.81 runs against the Red Sox.

I find this result quite interesting. It appears to support the theory that good pitching beats good hitting. The White Sox pitching staff is predicted to pull the Red Sox down to a below average offensive team, while the Red Sox poor pitching staff elevates the White Sox to an above average offense. The two adversaries played seven games in the regular season, and each team scored 36 runs, or 5.1 per game. The White Sox offense did get better and the Red Sox offense did get worse. Boston won the season series, however, 4-3.

So the two teams look very evenly matched. They're the top two teams in winning one-run games. The White Sox ended up 35-19, a .648 winning percentage while the Red Sox finished the season 27-15, a .643 winning percentage.

Interestingly enough, the running game favors the Red Sox in this series. The White Sox stole many more bases (137-45), but the Red succeeded more often (79% to 67%). Neither team was good at stopping the running game, but Chicago was horrible. The White Sox allowed 103 of 128 thiefs to steal (80%) while the Red Sox allowed 88 of 117 to be successful (75%). The Red Sox are good at picking their spots to steal, and they'll get ample opportunities in this series.

I'm favoring the White Sox in this series due to their home field advantage. The Red Sox are a .500 team on the road, while the White Sox pitching gets much better away from whatever they're calling Comiskey these days. Whatever the outcome, we do know the Sox will win. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM | League Division Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (1)
Trammell Fired
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The Detroit Tigers fired manager Alan Trammell today.

With a lineup and bullpen that seemed upgraded, the Tigers thought they had a chance to have a winning season in 2005. The Tigers were 42-44 at the All-Star break and 61-62 in late August before losing 29 of their last 39 games.

"You will not find a more dedicated, hardworking and respected individual that cares more about the Tigers and his coaching staff," Tigers president Dave Dombrowski said in a statement. "However, for the Tigers to reach the next level, I feel it is appropriate to make a change at this time."

On top of all that, there was a huge fall off in production from Ivan Rodriguez. How much of that can be blamed on the manager is unknown. Ivan lost a lot of weight over the off season, and his batting eye appeared to go with it. He drew only 11 walks and his OBA dropped nearly 100 points.

What finally ended Trammell's tenure was the poor performance by the team down the stretch. The Barbara Feldon Royals swept the Tigers and the team appeared to be going through the motions at that point. If they fought hard and lost, maybe Alan would still be the manager. Like Lloyd McClendon, I'd like to see what Trammell could do with a good team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Roster
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It looks like the Red Sox are going to carry 10 pitchers in the first round instead of 11. I think that's an excellent idea. With one of your starters moving to the pen there's no need for an extra arm when you can give the offense more flexibility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 AM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
St. Louis vs. San Diego
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St. LouisSan Diego
2005ValueNL RankValueNL Rank
Runs per Game4.973rd4.2213th
Batting Average.2702nd-T.25712th
On-Base Average.3383rd-T.3335th-T
Slugging Percentage.4226th-T.39115th
ERA3.481st4.157th-T

This series appears to be a mismatch. St. Louis has an excellent offense and the best pitching staff in the league. The Padres don't score much, and despite playing in a low scoring park, their pitching is just middle of the road. When you look at the teams away from their home parks, the pitching difference becomes clear. St. Louis posts a 3.54 ERA, still the best in the National League, while the Padres fall to 13th with a 4.79 ERA. Playing up to three games in St. Louis does not favor San Diego.

By the same token, the offenses aren't as far apart as they look, either. You can see that in their overall on-base averages. On the road, the Cardinals score 4.9 runs per game, best in the NL. San Diego, at 4.64, is 3rd. So the real story here is that we have the best hitting and pitching team facing a good offense and a poor pitching staff.

How then, do the Padres make up the deficit in pitching? They need to use the bullpen. A lot. The Padres have five pitchers that can blow batters away; Peavy in the rotation and Seanez, Otsuka, Linebrink and Hoffman in the bullpen. With a day off between each of the first three games, Bochy can afford to go to his pen early and often. If Peavy can go deep in games 1 and 4, then three good innings from Astacio in one other game is all the Padres may need.

Of course, few lineups the Padres faced in 2005 have Albert Pujols, Larry Walker and Jim Edmonds. All three get on base and all three hit for power. They have a good table setter in Eckstein and some backup power in Sanders. The Cardinals need very few swings of the bat to score runs.

So the hope for Bochy is that the front line pitching can shut down the Cardinals and his team can score a few runs against the deep St. Louis pitching staff. The Cardinals are clear favorites, but this series has the potential to surprise fans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (2)
Final Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Here are the major league leaders in:

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)
October 02, 2005
McKeon Retires
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Jack McKeon called it quits today. Florida had a disappointing season, and Trader Jack took responsibility for that:

"The last couple of years I haven't had as much fun as I'd like," McKeon said. "Since I'm the leader, I'll take full responsibility for the poor year we had."

Here's a job Lou Piniella that ought to interest Lou Piniella. There's a solid core here that. Cabrera, Delgado, Willis and Beckett would be a great lead four on any team. Plus, it's close to home, which is why Lou wanted to move to Tampa in the first place. I would not be surprised to see Piniella in teal next season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 PM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Thoughts on the Season
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The regular season games are over. San Diego, San Francisco and Oakland all pick up victories to put a cap on a fun year. There was plenty of controversy as a new steroid policy sent players into suspensions. New stars emerged. Some old stars had unbelievable seasons, while others nursed injuries.

There was baseball in Washington for the first time in over 30 years. Washington finished in last place, but with a .500 record. For a few weeks, it looked like they might make the playoffs. They made a good impression on the city, enough to bring major league baseball a nice profit when they auction the team.

Some things were back to normal. For the 7th time in 8 year the AL East finished NY, Bos, Tor, Bal and TB. The Orioles got off to a great start and were leading the division in early July. The Orioles lost their power, however, as their slugging percentage was 75 points lower after the break than before the All-Star Game. The pitching slowed down also, leading them to play 22 games under .500 after the in the second half.

Mostly though, this season showed that game early in the season matter, too. The White Sox, Cardinals, Angels all got off to great starts, and those great starts allowed the White Sox and Angels to hold on as Oakland and Cleveland made impressive comebacks. All the early losses hurt the charging teams.

We came close to a sub-.500 division winner, but San Diego managed to finish two games over .500, the worst finish for a first place teams since baseball split into divisions in 1969. (For some reason, baseball doesn't count first place teams from 1994 as division winners. The Rangers were under .500 when the players went on strike). The seventh best record in the National league is going to the playoffs.

The Braves, Athletics and Indians all showed that good young players can perform as well as expensive old veterans. The Royals showed that players can be bad at any age. The Rockies showed that pitchers with unusual arm angles might be the answer to Coors field.

All in all, a fine season. The Padres and White Sox are here to bring some new blood into the playoffs and we have four more weeks of fun ahead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM | Baseball | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Win
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It's official, the Red Sox win 10-1, making the Yankees the third seed in the AL playoffs. Schilling gave up 8 hits in six innings but allowed just one run. He only struck out three, however. How well he'll do in the playoffs is anyone's guess. One thing's for sure, he'll pitch his guts out every start.

Congratulations to the Red Sox. They didn't so much falter (they went 18-13 in Sept-Oct) down the stretch as the Yankees came on strong (20-10 in Sept-Oct). They're still in the hunt to defend their series crown and they have an offense that can score on anybody.

The ALDS really puts to the test the old adage that good pitching stops good hitting. LAnaheim and Chicago have outstanding pitching staffs. The Yankees and Red Sox have outstanding offenses. We'll see how well the adage holds up over the next week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:16 PM | Division Races | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Playoff Matchups
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It looks like things are set. Barring an unbelievable comeback by the Yankees second string, the playoff pairings and locations are set. The Padres will open the playoffs Tuesday afternoon in St. Louis, a 1 PM EDT start on ESPN. Boston travels to Chicago and plays the White Sox at 4 PM EDT. One thing we know about that series; the Sox will win! The Yankees play in Anaheim against the Angels in the twilight at 5 PM PDT. Three day games! Very cool.

The Braves host the Astros on Wednesday, it what I assume will be an early start. The AL will finish up the first home stand of the series that day. Thursday the NL finishes their first home stand, and it's all AL on Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Angels Win
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What a great finish by LAnaheim. Three weeks ago they looked like the also ran in the AL at best. They win today 7-4 to take 14 of their last 16 games and they appear to have won home field in the first round of the American League playoffs. The Yankees are losing 10-1 and all their starters are out of the game. Congratulations to the Angels on a terrific finish.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth in Houston
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The Astros bring in a tired Brad Lidge to start the ninth and try to get the save. Matt Murton singles on the first pitch. Ben Grieve pinch hits for Perez.

Update: Grieve strikes out on a 1-2 pitch. Lidge kept the ball low and inside and Ben couldn't handle it.

Update: Todd Walker pinch hits. He'll try to do his best Kirk Gibson.

Update: Walker grounds to short. Bruntlett drops the ball at second and Murton is safe. Cubs have men on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Phillies win 9-3. Lidge gets a ground out to short, but the Cubs have men on 2nd and 3rd with two out for Macias. Doesn't Dusty have a pinch hitter for this guy?

Update: Macias lines out to second to end the game. The Astros win the game 6-4 and wins the NL Wild Card by a game over the Phillies. Congratulations to the Astros on another great comeback season!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | Division Races | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Concede Homefield
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Joe Torre brings in all the scrubs in the bottom of the sixth with New York down 7-1. It looks like the Yankees will be boarding a plane for Anaheim to start the ALDS with the Angels up 7-4 in the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Phillies Still Fighting
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The Phillies are not going quietly in Washington. They've already scored two, and the bases are loaded with two outs. Frank Robinson is going to Chad Cordero to prevent any more damage.

Update: Cordero hits Rollins in the shoulder to drive in another run. The Phillies now lead 8-3, but it may be for naught as the Astros need just three more outs to win.

An infield single extends the Phillies lead to 9-3 in the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth in Cleveland
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Aaron Boone walks with one out to bring the tying run to the plate.

Update: Orlando Hernandez strikes out Blake on three pitches. The season is up to Sizemore.

Update: Sizemore grounds out to second. The Red Sox are the Wild Card. What a poor finish for the Indians. The dropped fly ball in Kansas City, losing two out of three to the Devil Rays, then losing the opening game to the White Sox when Chicago didn't put their best team on the field. Like the Athletics in the west, Cleveland just ran out of gas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:03 PM | Division Races | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Perez Giveth, and Perez Taketh Away
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Lane homers to tie the Cubs at four. Then with Everett at first, Bagwell pinch hits and grounds a slow roller to Perez. Neifi goes for the double play, but throws the ball into right. Everett scores and Bagwell winds up at third. The Astros take a 5-4 lead and Maddux is out of the game. He won't reach .500.

Update: A wild pitch makes the Astros Wild Card hopes higher. At the end of six, the Astros lead 6-4.

Correction: It was Lane, not Lamb who hit the home run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM | Division Races | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ortiz RBI
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David Ortiz picks up RBI 148 in the bottom of the fourth, hitting a single to left off Proctor to make the score 3-0.

Update: More bad news for the Yankees as the Angels take a 5-4 lead in Texas.

Update: Manny Ramirez hits a three run shot to make the score 6-0. Cleveland just finished the 8th, putting the leadoff man on but once again leaving him on base. Things are looking bad for Cleveland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:47 PM | Division Races | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Cubs Tie
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Three straight singles by the Cubs plate Garciaparra and the Cubs tie the Astros at three. A good throw would have gotten Nomar at the plate.

Update: Neifi Perez delivers his third hit of the game, a single to drive in Burnitz with two out. Oswalt has no excuse for allowing three hits to Perez. It's 4-3 Cubs, and the Phillies still have the lead in Washington.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:41 PM | Division Races | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Mueller Mauls
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Bill Mueller goes deep to extend the Red Sox lead to 2-0. After a walk, Proctor is coming into the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Indians On Again
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Casey Blake battles back from an 0-2 count to lead off the Indians seventh with a single. Sizemore then hits the first pitch for a double play. It's the same problem for the Indians; plenty of baserunners but no follow up. It's 3-1 White Sox after seven.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:30 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cubs Comeback?
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A Barrett homer and two singles put Chicago on the board and threatening for more. The Cubs have runners on 1st and 3rd with Maddux at the plate. Maddux bunts, but Oswalt makes a great play, starting a double play and leaving the runner at third.

Update: Patterson doubles in a run to make the score 3-2. Oswalt's great play on the bunt saves a run.

Update: Oswalt gets out of the inning. The Astros lead 3-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:21 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Oswalt Helps Himself
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Roy Oswalt gets an infield hit to drive in a run, extending the Astros lead to 3-0. The Phillies are doing their job, winning 5-3, but it will be for naught unless the Cubs come back against Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:16 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Nixon Knocks One In
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Trot Nixon hits a bases loaded sacrifice fly to give the Red Sox a 1-0 lead over the Yankees, putting more pressure on the Indians.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:13 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Juan Gone
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Juan Rivera goes deep again, bringing the Angels back even with the Rangers at four. He's set a career high with 15 homers this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Long Hit
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Hafner doubles leading off the sixth inning. The Indians put four leadoff men on today, but can never seem to put hits together until they get two outs.

Victor Martinez doesn't get good wood on the ball, but he flairs it over the third baseman for a double and an RBI. The White Sox now lead 3-1. McCarthy is over 100 pitches, so he may be tiring.

Update: McCarthy leaves, but the Indians can't get another hit. They trail 3-1 at the end of six.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:04 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rangers Helping the Yankees
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Matthews triples to drive in two, making it a four run inning for Texas. The Rangers lead the Angels 4-1 after three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Crisp Double
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With Boone on first and two out, Coco Crips hits his 42nd double of the year. Jhonny Peralta bats with men on 2nd and 3rd and two out.

Update: Peralta flies out to end the inning. That's three times Peralta's hit with men on base and three times he's failed to advance anyone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Double Triple
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Oswalt gives up his first hit of the game, a double to Neifi Perez. Neifi ends up at third on a throwing error by Berkman.

Update: Neifi tries to score on a ball to the shortstop with the infield in. He's easily thrown out at the plate, leaving Maddux at first. Maddux ends up at second on a wild pitch.

Update: Oswalt's a little wild here as he hits Patterson to put the tying run on base.

Update: Jose Macias grounds out on ball 4 to end the inning. Why Dusty has two poor OBA guys at the top of the order today is beyond me. Macias has a .299 career OBA in seven seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:39 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Phour for the Phillies
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The Phillies pick up three runs in the top of the fifth. With two out, Pratt and Lieber both reach base, Lieber on a walk. Rollins and Lofton follow with doubles and the Phillies have a commanding lead in a ball park that's run stingy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leaving Runners
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The Red Sox put three men on in the bottom of the first but leave the bases loaded. If the first inning is any indication, the managers will be going to the bullpen early and often in this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:33 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Angels Go For Home
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The LAnaheim Angels put an unearned run on the board in the first to put some pressure on the Yankees. An Angels win and a Yankees loss puts the opening game of the ALDS in Anaheim.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The White Sox Don't Score!
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The Indians finally hold the White Sox scoreless in an inning. It's still 3-0 going to the bottom of the fourth in Cleveland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bends But Doesn't Break
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Schilling gives up three hits but no runs as Manny's throw to second saves the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:20 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
0 for Oswalt
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Roy Oswalt retires the Cubs in order in the first on 13 pitches.

Update: Ensberg singles in Biggo, who was on base with a double. The Astros lead 1-0.

Update: Lamb also gets an RBI single to give the Astros an early 2-0 lead. They've gone to the top of the second there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:15 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wall Out
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Jeter gets all of a poor Schilling pitch to knock a single off the Green Monster. It looked like a double, but Manny played it perfectly and threw Jeter out at second easily.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:12 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
ESPN Does it Right
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Notice how much better ESPN covers baseball than Fox. They have the Yankees-Red Sox on ESPN, going to the whole country. On ESPN2, they have rolling coverage of the other important games of the day. Good job!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:09 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Carrasco strikes out Utley on a pitch in the dirt that gets away from Bennett. The wild pitch gives the Phillies 1st and 3rd with one out for Abreu.

Update: Abreu gives the Phillies the lead with a sac fly just as the Astros get under way in Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sox Take 3-0 Lead
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Konerko hits the sacrifice fly to give Chicago a 3-0 lead. That's 100 RBI for Paul Konerko. As the Red Sox game starts, there's a little less pressure on them with the Indians losing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:01 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rollins at 36
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Jimmy Rollins leads off the fourth with a single, extending his hit streak to 36 games. Hit streaks do not carry over from year to year, so unless there is a game tomorrow, it will end here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:59 PM | Division Races | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Iguchi Triples
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Tadahito Iguchi triples over the head of Grady Sizemore in deep center. The ball took a high, slow bounce that allowed Tadahito to take the extra base. With none out, the White Sox have two chances to drive him in with a fly ball.

Update: Elarton gets ahead of Dye 0-2 but then ends up walking him. That's it for Elarton. Wedge has a very short leash today.

Update: Riske is on in relief.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nine Up, Nine Down
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Hector Carrasco looks strong through three innings, retiring all nine batters he's faced. He's struck out two and has thrown 31 of 46 pitches for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:49 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nationals Threaten
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Washington gets a man to third with one out after a Zimmerman double and a Church groundout.

Update: Cruz grounds out to a drawn in infield, stranding Zimmerman at third. The Phillies are walking Bennett to pitch to Carrasco.

Update: Carrasco strikes out, and doesn't look very good doing it. The game remains scoreless in Washington.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chicago Scores Again
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The White Sox get an RBI single from Joe Crede. The White Sox followed a hit batter with two singles for the run, and have men at 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Cleveland strands the two runners. They're down 2-0 after two.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Indian On
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Grady Sizemore starts the Indians first with a walk. Crisp follows with a fly out to right.

Update: With two out, Hafner singles to right center. That puts men on 1st and 3rd with two out.

Update: Victor Martinez gives the ball a ride to deep left, but flies out to end the inning. Cleveland is down 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:18 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Phillies Up, Down
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Hector Carrasco retires the Phillies in order in the 1st. That's 18 2/3 scoreless innings for Hector.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Deep Dye
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Jermaine Dye launches an Elarton pitch down the left field line for a 1-0 Chicago lead. It's the 32nd home run given up by Elarton this year, but only the 4th since Sept. 1st.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:11 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Timing matters today. The Phillies and Indians get the Day of the Wild Card started at 1 PM. Jon Lieber takes the mound for the Phillies in Washington. This is the game Jon was hired to win. Jon had a bell shaped season. He's 8-2 in April and September with stellar ERAs, 8-11 the rest of the year. He usually shows great control, but 7 of Lieber's 38 walks this were drawn by the Nationals, none intentional.

He'll be opposed by Hector Carrasco. The resurrected reliever is flourishing as a starter, posting an 0.83 ERA in four starts. He the two runs allowed came in his first start and no one's crossed the plate against him since.

The Phillies need to win this game. If they lose, the NL Wild Card belongs to the Astros. Chicago and Houston get underway at 2 PM with Greg Maddux facing Roy Oswalt. Maddux's last losing season was in 1987. If he can earn the W today, he'll be 14-14 and pick up career win 319. Greg has a 2.60 career ERA vs. the Astros and he's won nine of his last eleven starts against the team.

He'll be opposed by the third ace of the Astros staff, Roy Oswalt. The Astros won five of Oswalt's last six starts, and in four of them the righty allowed only one run. He's in a comfortable place as he goes for win number 20. Roy is 11-2 at the Juice Box with an ERA of 2.33. A win for Oswalt accomplishes three things: a Wild Card for Houston, back-to-back twenty win seasons for Oswalt, and will give him the most wins over the last two seasons.

The Indians play their own must win game at 1 PM. Cleveland's had no trouble shutting down the White Sox offense. They just can't score runs lately. They've scored 19 runs in their last six games, only 13 in the five losses. They've had plenty of opportunities to score; they've put 71 runners on base via a hit, walk or HBP in that time.

Watching that score will be the Red Sox. The Indians' losses the last two night means this isn't a titanic struggle. Both teams are playing for something, it just doesn't have to do with their opponent. A Sox win (Red or White) means Boston is in the playoffs. A Yankees win means the team gets to go home to open the LDS at Yankee Stadium. It looks like the Yankees are more concerned about winning the first round than where they are playing it as they're sending Jaret Wright to the mound instead of Mike Mussina. Schilling will pitch for the Red Sox. Schilling's been up and down lately, with good starts against the Yankees and Devil Rays, poor ones against the Athletics and Blue Jays. If he stays with the pattern, he'll be good today.

Finally, the Angels will be watching the Yankees score, as a New York loss and a LAnaheim win over Texas puts the Tuesday prime time game in Anaheim. After losing four in a row to Seattle and Detroit, the Angels went on a streak to win 13 of their last 15 games. They've outscored their opponents 78-56 over that stretch. Guerrero and Figgins, as usual, are leading the charge.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Game Times
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Games times were announced over night for possible Wild Card playoff games on Monday and the start of the Division Series:

If the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies require a one-game tiebreaker to determine the winner of the National League Wild Card, the game will be held at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday afternoon at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park.

If a one-game tiebreaker between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Red Sox is necessary to decide the American League Wild Card winner, the game will be played at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday evening at Boston's Fenway Park.

Both games would be on ESPN and ESPN Radio.

I'm very surprised the Boston game would be at 7 PM. I figured an afternoon game so the Red Sox would have time to travel to Chicago for an afternoon game the next day. I guess making prime-time money is more important than the teams being in good shape for the next day's series. If that game does happen, it will be interesting to see the ratings for the time Monday Night Football and baseball go head-to-head.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)
Penultimate Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2005
Up in the Air
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With the Angels winning tonight (despite K-Rod giving up two triples in the ninth) the playoff pairings and locations remain murky. What we know right now is that there will be a playoff game in Chicago on Tuesday. We know there will be a playoff game in Atlanta on Tuesday or Wednesday, and a playoff game in St. Louis on Tuesday or Wednesday. There will also be a playoff game in New York or Anaheim on Tuesday.

The NL is pretty simple. The Padres are on the road Tuesday and Thursday, in Atlanta if Philadelphia is the Wild Card, in St. Louis if Houston wins the best of the rest. The Wild Card team plays on Wednesday and Thursday.

In the AL, the White Sox host Boston if they win the Wild Card, LAnaheim if Cleveland can pull the comeback. The location of the New York/LAnaheim Series is up in the air (if Boston is the Wild Card). If New York wins tomorrow, it's in The Bronx. If the Yankees lose and LAnaheim wins, it's at the Big A. If Cleveland is the Wild Card, they open in New York on Tuesday.

I'm just glad I'm not a television executive trying to figure out where to send my crews.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 9th in Washington
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The Phillies lead the Nationals 8-4. Wagner faces Brandon Watson leading off the 9th.

Update: Watson strikes out on a 98 MPH fastball.

Update: Marlon Byrd strikes out looking.

Update: Kenny Kelly is pinch hitting.

Update: Kelly strikes out on three pitches. The Phillies 8-4 win keep hope alive in the Wild Card race.

Eighteen of the 38 batters who came to the plate for Washington struck out. They drew one walk, meaning when the Nationals put the ball in play they were 8 for 19, a .421 batting average. Just another example of how important it is to make contact.

The Phillies' win means four important games tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:19 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Win, Clinch Tie
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The Astros finish the game winning 3-1, guaranteeing them no worse than a tie for the wild card. Clemens gets the win to go 13-8, while Lidge has a much better day, retiring the side in the ninth on 9 pitches, seven of them strikes.

The Astros control their fate. A Phillies loss today or tomorrow will give Houston the Wild Card berth, or a win by Houston tomorrow does the same.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:48 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Clemens Out
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The Astros are pinch hitting for Clemens in the 7th. Roger pitches a good game, striking out five and walking three. Most importantly, he allows just one run and leaves with the lead in hand. He finishes the regular season with a 1.87 ERA and a .198 batting average allowed. Roger went 12 for 58 on the season, a .207 batting average, hitting better than his opponents. Now that's impressive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM | Division Races | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
AL Wild Card
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I notice I haven't spelled this out. The Red Sox now control their own destiny. A win tomorrow by the Red Sox gives them the AL Wild Card. A loss by Boston and a win by Cleveland puts the two teams into a one-game playoff at Boston on Monday. While we won't have the three-way tie, we have a shot at two Wild Card playoff games on Monday.

Depending on the result of the LAnaheim game, the tomorrow's game in Boston could be meaningful to the Yankees. If the Angels win tonight and tomorrow, they'll have 95 wins. If the Yankees lose tomorrow, they have 95 wins. In that case, the Angels win the tie-breaker and get home field in the first round vs. New York. Given that the Yankees are much better at home than on the road, they may not want that to happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
He's the Most Ut
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Chase Utley homers to make the score in Washington 6-2. The two-run shot gives Chase 64 RBI in 71 games since the All-Star break.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:42 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Taveras Doubles
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Willy Taveras doubles to start off the sixth inning. Ensberg pops out to the third baseman for the first out. Two more chances for the Astros with the speedy Taveras at second.

Update: Berkman is hit by the pitch, putting men on first and second and setting up the double play. Given that Lance is the most dangerous hitter on the team, it's probably a good move.

Lamb hits into a force out to put runners on first and third with two out.

Update: Jason Lane singles through the hole to drive in Taveras and put the Astros back on top 2-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Poor Umpiring?
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I'm listening to the Astros broadcast on the computer, and it seems both sides (offense and defense) are complaining about the umpiring at home. Still with supposedly bad calls, the score is still just 1-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM | Umpires | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cubs Tie
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The Cubs load the bases in the fourth and Matt Murton delivers a sac fly to tie the game. All the runners move up, so they walk Patterson to pitch to the pitcher Williams. Clemens strikes out Jerome to end the threat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:08 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leading Man
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Craig Biggio leads off the game for Houston with his 26th home run of the season. A win by the Astros means they can't do worse than a tie for the Wild Card.

Clemens is pitching well so far. Through 3 innings he's struck out three and walked just one. The Astros lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Win! Thhhhhhhhhe Yankees Win!
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Rivera gets the last three outs, and the Yankees take the game 8-4. The victory, along with the Cleveland loss, makes the Yankees the AL East Champions. The best the Red Sox can do is tie the Yankees, and if that happens, both teams will have better records than Cleveland, so head-to-head record is used to break the tie. With 10 wins vs. the Red Sox, the Yankees take the division.

I must admit I'm impressed. When they were losing to Tampa, when they were being swept by Kansas City, I thought they were through. But they went out and found pitching, and with their great offense made better by Giambi and Cano, they started winning and kept winning.

Congratulations on an amazing comeback.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rollins to 35
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Rollins doubles and scores in the first inning to extend his streak to 35 games and give the Phillies a 1-0 lead. A Philly wins keeps them alive for tomorrow.

Update: Ryan Howard keeps looking better for Rookie of the Year as he doubles in three to extend the Phillies lead to 4-0. That gives Howard 40 extra-base hits in 87 games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:22 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth in Cleveland
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The Indians are down to their last three outs. Boone leads off.

Update: Boone strikes out.

Update: Blake flies out to centerfield. One out to go, and Sizemore up.

Update: Sizemore pops out to shortstop. The Indians lose, and their one week collaspe is almost complete. The Yankees are three outs away from winning the AL East. The three-way playoff is dead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Why Can't We See All the Games?
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It would be nice if Fox had arranged it so we could see all the games today. They could have done a double header on Fox and a double header on FX. Then we could have switched back and forth between Boston and Cleveland then Washington and Houston. ESPN would have found a way.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:05 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Seventh
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Victor Martinez reaches first via the walk to start the 7th for the Indians. They need as many runners as possible.

Update: The Indians score two in the bottom of the 7th, then load the bases but don't score in the 8th. Belliard and Broussard both fly out to leave the ducks on the pond. That's the story of the Indians this week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:18 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Division Champs?
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With Cleveland losing and the Yankees winning, New York will end up the AL East champ if these scores hold. I don't know the record, but the Yankees would be near the top of winning teams with fewest days in first place.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Division Races | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
White Sox Tie
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The Chicago White Sox come back in the top of the 7th to tie the Indians at one. Three singles, ending with a Baltimore chop by Ozuna leads to a run. The White Sox are still threatening with two outs.

Update: Earl Weaver would be pround as Iguchi hits a three-run homer to give the White Sox a 4-1 lead. Things are suddenly looking bleak for the Indians. That's 45 extra-base hits for the first year second baseman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
A-Rod's 48
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Alex Rodriguez hits the ball onto Landsdowne Street to extend the Yankees lead to 7-2. With the Yankees and Indians leading, things are looking up for the three-way tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:47 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Scoreless at the Jake
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Garland and Westbrook are giving a clinic in pitching today. Not only are they pitching shutouts, but they're being very efficient in doing so. Both are averaging under 13 pitches per inning.

Update: Mighty Casey singles to right to drive in Belliard from second to give the Indians the 1-0 lead. Blake goes to second on the bobble.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:34 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Matsui to Center
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It looked like Tim Wakefield was going to have his first 1-2-3 inning, but Matsui takes him deep into the centerfield bleachers to make the score 6-2 New York after 2 1/2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:18 PM | Division Races | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Baserunners in Boston
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Johnny Damon walks again, this time to load the bases in the second inning. The lead off man reached in each half inning of the game so far.

Update: Johnson strikes out the side, getting Renteria to end the threat in the second. He goes back and forth between wildness and unhittability in this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:08 PM | Division Races | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Meanwhile, In Cleveland
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The White Sox and the Indians are engaged in another low scoring contest. Through 2 1/2 innings, there's no score and each side has just one hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:03 PM | Division Races | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hitting Again
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Once again, the Yankees start an inning with two hits. Tino singles, and Bernie Williams smashes a double off Millar's glove. The Yankees are threatening in the 2nd.

Update: Flaherty hits a Fly Ball A, scoring Tino from third and moving Williams to third. Bernie scores on Jeter's sac fly to get back the two runs Manny drove home.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:54 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Randy's First
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Randy Johnson walks Damon to start the first. Damon takes second immediately.

Update: Ortiz appeared to be hit by a pitch, but either the ump didn't see it or the ump didn't think Ortiz tried to get out of the way. David ends up striking out against Johnson with Damon on third. It's up to Manny now.

Update: It's not only up, but it's out. Manny blasts the ball down the line over the foul pole and everything else. It's 3-2 New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Starting With Singles
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Jeter and A-Rod set the table with singles off Wakefield.

Update: Giambi forces A-Rod, but Jeter scores. For the second day in a row, the Yankees take a 1-0 lead in the first.

Update: Sheffield goes deep into the Monster seats. Wakefield threw a 3-2 fast ball and Gary got all of it. The Yankees lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:29 PM | Division Races | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Today's Yankees-Red Sox game is the best pitching matchup of the series, but it's also the least important game. With the Red Sox winning last night, today's game simply becomes a prelude to tomorrow's do or die game. Lyflines has the updates on the playoff scenarios.

Randy Johnson was hired for games like this. Pedro Martinez didn't do well in his must-win game, so we'll see if the Yankees spent their money more wisely. Randy's been on a roll since August 26th, posting a 1.64 in those seven games. His strikeouts are still not back however. While 7.4 per nine is still very good, it's not the 9.0+ we're used to from the Big Unit.

Wakefield's carried the Boston rotation through September. He put up a 1.99 ERA in the month with a strikeout rate very similar to Johnson's and walking very few. A knuckleballer with control is a dangerous weapon.

Cleveland, despite the loss last night still controls their destiny. If they win their last two games, they at least live to fight another day. With the Red Sox winning yesterday, however, they can no longer afford to lose all their games. Jon Garland takes the mound for the White Sox against Jake Westbrook today. The Chicago offense figured out Westbrook pretty well this season. In four starts, the White Sox scored 17 runs (15 earned) in 26 1/3 innings vs. Jake. Garland looked like a sure 20-game winner at the end of July, but he's gone 2-6 since the end of that month, giving up 13 of his 26 home runs in that time.

The Phillies will try to hold on for one more day with a win against the Nationals. Brett Myers hurls against John Patterson. The Phillies only one one of Myers last five starts. Patterson is pretty untouchable at home, giving up just 97 hits in 120 innings for a .219 BA allowed at RFK. Opponents slug a measly .318 against him there.

The Astros need a win real bad. Just one assures them a tie come tomorrow night. They'll go with their best as Roger Clemens hosts Jerome Williams. Williams had a very good September, posting a 2.10 ERA on the strength of just allowing one home run in 34 1/3 innings. Clemens ran out of gas and health in the month. He's had eleven days off to recharge and heal, and the Astros hope he's back to giving them seven shutout innings.

And let's not forget the Angels. They could still tie the Eastern winner for second best record in the AL. They win the home field tie-breaker with the Yankees but lose it with the Red Sox.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Googlely Goodness
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There were a number of reasons for starting this weblog, but one of the selfish ones was to see if I could become the #1 David Pinto on Google. That turned out to be pretty easy. I never thought this would happen, however. Baseball Musings is now 11th on the Google search for "baseball," ahead of ESPN's baseball page.

Thanks to all the readers of this site for your support over the years. I love the comments posted here. Great discussions without the nastiness you see on other sites. Thanks for making this blog so successful.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM | Blogs | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Players of the Month
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Offensive player of the month is a very difficult call for September 2005. Randy Winn stands out; he's first in slugging percentage (70 PA min) and third in OBA. One amazing stat for Randy is that he had more extra-base hits than RBI. He knocked out twelve doubles, two triples and eleven home runs and only managed to knock in seventeen runs. It shows how poor the bottom of the Giants lineup performed.

This actually happens quite a bit with leadoff men. In 1929, Johnny Frederick of the Brooklyn Dodgers had 82 extra-base hits and only seventy-five RBI. That's the most EXBH with fewer RBI in the history of baseball. Frederick did score 127 runs that season.

Jimmy Rollins hit in every game he played in September, and led the majors with 29 runs scored. He earned an impressive .455 OBA, finally performing like a great leadoff hitter. Rollins also swiped 12 of 13 bases to raise his SB% to 87.2%, the best of his career.

Lance Berkman, Todd Helton, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Travis Hafner and Ryan Howard all had big months. But it comes down to Winn's superior numbers vs. Rollins scoring and his hit streak. In the end I have to go with Winn. He's turned out to be a great pickup for the Giants and the big reason they stayed in contention when it looked like their season was over. Congratulations to Randy Winn, the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month!

As with the batters, there are numerous great pitching performances in the month of September. Rick Helling had a hell of a month for the Brewers. Scott Kazmir may prove to be the pitcher that turns the Tampa Bay franchise around. Jose Contreras anchored the White Sox rotation and will probably start the opening game of the LDS for them. But the Big Milliliter, C.C. Sabathia gets the nod for Pitcher of the Month. He posted a minuscule ERA of 1.45 while striking out four times the batters he walked. He kept the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs in the month. The high strikeout rate led to just 28 hits going against him.

Si, Si, Sabathia!

Former Baseball Musings Players of the Month:

MonthBatterPitcher
August 2005David Wright, NY MetsNoah Lowry, SF Giants
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
West Coast Roundup
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The San Diego Padres picked up their 81st win last night as they defeated the Dodgers 3-1. Baseball avoids having a below .500 division winner. Woody Williams pitched well for the win and he's going into the playoffs on a high note. He only had one bad start in September, and it was at Coors Field. Woody's capable of holding a team down for five innings so the bullpen can take over.

The Oakland Athletics lost to the Mariners 4-1, guaranteeing Steven Levitt another loss on his baseball betting. When the skeptics get on board, you know it's time to sell. Jamie Moyer gets the win, turning around his 7-13 record of 2004 into a 13-7 record for the season. Pretty good for an old man on a bad team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Weekend Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)