Baseball Musings: Fearing the Committee

September 13, 2005

Fearing the Committee

Tony Massarotti fears the return of the closer by committee in the Boston bullpen.

But back to the seventh for a moment. Having operated with a structured bullpen for the large majority of his managerial career in Boston, Francona now seems to have zero confidence in virtually every Sox reliever but Timlin and, seemingly, Papelbon. The manager certainly has every right, particularly during a season in which Red Sox relievers have been swimming in gasoline. No wonder the prices keep going up. But the committee approach? No, no, no, no. It doesn't work. We all saw that during the early stages of the 2003 season, when the bullpen failed so miserably that the Sox went out and acquired Kim from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shea Hillenbrand. Kim stablized the bullpen – at least during the majority of the regular season – the same way Curt Schilling did this year, which is another frightening similarity between this year and that one.

I don't agree that a committee can't work. In fact, Francona should be praised for using (in his opinion his best pitcher with the game on the line. That was the save right there. The "best" relief pitcher's job is to get outs in precisely that situation, not mow down the the bottom of the order in the ninth. The Red Sox just need to decide who the best is right now.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:15 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I agree entirely. Just because the Sox tried something for half a season (if that) and it didn't work, doesn't mean the idea is flawed. Baseball research seems to be unable to show any kind of consistent "clutch" effect in hitters. Why do we insist then that it exists in certain pitchers? Not to mention, the Sox closer committee in 2003 was not exactly a Gordon/Rivera-type lineup.

Posted by: Mike at September 13, 2005 09:27 AM

Unless you have a lights-out closer--and honestly, there are only a few that qualify--there's no good reason to hold back using your best pitcher in that situation.

Let's say Timlin gets Wells out. It's a 5-2 game, Timlin pitches the 8th, then Papelbon pitches the 9th. It'd be one of those meaningless saves, where Timlin really did the difficult work.

Besides, I understand that Timlin himself has said he's more comfortable pitching in the 7th or 8th, though I think we're dealing with psychology here more than anything.

Posted by: steve at September 13, 2005 09:51 AM

After watcing Papelbon pitch last night, I would say Francona should use him in the 9th for a little while and see how that works out. He looked quite good against the Blue Jays giving up no hits in 3 innings.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at September 13, 2005 09:58 AM

Agree that Francona should just use anybody who's gotten somebody out lately. The Sox rank last in the AL in bullpen ERA, and nobody's close to depriving them of the distinction. The next-to-last Rangers are almost a half-run better on bullpen ERA.

At this point you can't afford not to try everybody and anybody.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 13, 2005 10:10 AM

It was bad pitching, not bad strategy, that caused the 2003 approach to fail.

But I've long felt there was another force at work: the dreaded spectre of "conventional wisdom."

I don't think Grady Little bought into, or even fully understood, the concept. The same goes for the guys most responsible for making it work -- the pitchers in the Boston bullpen.

There's an argument to be made that pitchers are more comfortable in narrowly defined roles, and thus better able to prepare.

In Boston's case, you also had a skeptical manager and a dismissive, almost mocking press to deal with.

Just because it was a great idea didn't mean the Sox would be able to implement it. Theo needed buy-in, and he didn't have it.

He all but admitted defeat with the Foulke signing that winter.

Posted by: Walt in Maryland at September 13, 2005 10:45 AM

In 1985 Whitey Herzog had a true bullpen by committee in St. Louis and it worked out great for him (101 wins, 6 different relievers with saves, six different relievers with more than 10 games finished). A bullpen by committee certainly works in theory, and unless baseball has changed significantly over the past 20 years, I don't see any reason it couldn't work in practice as well. Perhaps the key, as Walt suggests, is the right environment. Whitey was brilliant with his use of the pen, and the press in St. Louis endorsed his set-up, so there was none of the melodrama you had up in Boston a couple years ago.

Posted by: Brian Gunn at September 13, 2005 10:55 AM

My only complaint about last night is that Francona pulled Foulke for Timlin mid-inning. Shows an utter lack-of-confidence in Foulke, if you ask me. Yes, Foulke has pitched very poorly vs. RHB this season (which, I'm sure, is the reason Franky wanted Timlin in there), but those stats are affected by injury. His career BAA vs. RHB is better than Timlin's and since his return from the DL, he's been putting up #'s like his earlier years: 3.2 IP, 3H, 1BB, 4K (including last night).

Posted by: Jason at September 13, 2005 11:00 AM

While I generally agree with these comments, think that it is undeniable that much bullpen use is driven by the design of the save stat, and see no reason a "bullpen-by-committee" can't be quite effective, still -- I do think those of us on the sideline might underestimate how much it helps a pitcher to be able to anticipate the circumstances of his use (not to mention how much it helps a pitching coach get people up and down in the pen efficiently.) It often isn't making the most game value to use your closer only in 9th-inning save situations, but it may be the best way to get best reliever throwing his best when he does come in. I don't know.

Posted by: Capybara at September 13, 2005 01:54 PM

Cabybara has a point. I think relievers and bullpen coaches want to know what the routine is. Take this year's Phillies. It's almost a given that you see Madson in the 7th, Urbina in the 8th, and Wagner in the 9th.

Posted by: Tom G at September 13, 2005 03:03 PM

I agree that routine is nice...if your bullpen is producing. But if you've got a disaster like the Sox, it's hard to lock into a routine. After all, lots of hurlers have to be stinking it up to manufacture the worst bullpen ERA in the league, by a mile.

So some mixing and matching is unavoidable. If you finally find some guys who can do the job (like Papelbon, maybe) then you can start setting up a more consistent structure.

Except I think the Sox want Papelbon in the rotation. That's the way they mostly used him in the minors. Back to mixing and matching...

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 13, 2005 03:45 PM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (10)
Agents (12)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (239)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (169)
Base Running (78)
Baseball (1581)
Baseball Jerks (219)
Blogs (759)
Books (129)
Broadcasts (568)
Charity (49)
Cheating (665)
Collectibles (15)
College (1)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (40)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (100)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (169)
Defense (372)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (724)
Draft (63)
Equipment (25)
Fan Rant (46)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (58)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (3)
Free Agents (782)
Games (5549)
History (102)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (64)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (135)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1122)
International (76)
Interviews (168)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1281)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (46)
Minor Leagues (12)
Movies (9)
News Media (96)
Oddities (1)
Offense (216)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (321)
Owners (73)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2911)
Players (1524)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (59)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (145)
Probabilistic Model of Range (108)
Public Relations (8)
Records (153)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (25)
Salaries (12)
Scheduling (22)
Science (1)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (117)
Stadiums (279)
Standings (25)
Statistics (996)
steroids (1)
Strategy (171)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (937)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (56)
Trades (700)
Transactions (321)
Umpires (53)
Uniforms (17)
Union (22)
Welcome! (3)
women (4)
World Cup (170)
World Series (657)

By Month:
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman
Peter Gammons

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Trade Rumors Thoughts on wheeling and dealing.

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

The Bronx View A blog and podcast about the Yankees.

Jorge Says No A blog about the Yankees.

Ivy League to MLB Shawn Haviland blogs about his efforts to rise through the Oakland Athletics system.

This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes Blog of a girl who somehow has found a way to balance being a baseball purist with being a New York Yankees fan.

Baseball from Wrigley A Chicago Cubs blog.

Sliding into Home A Yankees blog.

Boras Blog Blogging about Scott Boras.

Injury Tool Fantasy Pitch F/X offers complete information on injuries.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Rookie Cards Baseball Card grading.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.