Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 30, 2004
Eric's Eye, Part II
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Earlier this season I commented on how Eric Chavez's walk numbers had improved. Little did I know at the time that Chavez would wind up leading the AL in walks with 95, despite missing 37 games. His previous career high was 65, and while his BA was one point below his career average, his OBA this season jumped 43 points above his career mark! See, you can turn outs into walks. The process works.

What's also interesting is that this is the first season since 1981 (strike) or 1976 (non-strike) that the AL leader in walks drew fewer than 100 walks. Even including strike years and 154 games seasons, this is only the 16th time in AL history that the leader had 95 walks or fewer. Why is that?

Overall, walks per 9 in the AL increased this year from 3.2 in 2002 to 3.3 in 2004. So it's not as if pitchers were issuing fewer walks. I think the problem is the lack of the super selective slugger in the AL this year. Thome has gone to the NL and Giambi and Thomas were both injured this year. Sluggers like Manny Ramirez and Vlad Guerrero, while drawing plenty of walks, have never taken 100 in their careers. Alex Rodriguez only did it once.

Likewise, the 100 walk leadoff man has disappeared also. Where is the Rickey Henderson or Tony Phillips or Mickey Tettleton type of player? Why have they disappeared. Is there anyone coming up through the farm systems that is going to take their place?

I like these types of players. If anyone has any insight as to why they have vanished from the AL, I would appreciate your input.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2004
Souvenirs
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Jim Storer just returned from St. Louis (happy birthday, Jim!) where he attended games 3 and 4 of the World Series. On his way back he and his buddies stopped by a Cardinals gear store at the airport. They found minature Cardinals bobble head dolls with the following label on the back:


Warning: Choking Hazard

Just too funny.

Update: Jim forwards this picutre from Ed Vescovi:
Cardinals choke hazard.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Internet Baseball Writers Awards
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Christian Ruzich has the results of the first annual Internet Baseball Writers Association (IBWA) awards. My ballot can be found in the extended entry below.

(A more readable version of the results can be found here.)

First off, I was the person who voted for Ryan Drese. I liked Drese's performance all year. He's one of the people who helped improve Texas greatly. It was purely a I like the guy, and I'm going to see he gets some recognition vote.

I disagree with the AL Player of the year voting in that the Yankees trio of Sheffield, Matsui and A-Rod did not get the votes they deserved. They were in the top 3 of win shares most of the year. I don't have a problem with Vlad winning; he had a great season. But I think voters in general should have ranked the three New Yorkers higher.

I was great to see Randy Johnson win the NL Pitcher of the year. This group of writers recognizes that wins don't always equate to pitching excellence. And it also came very close to be a unanimous 1-2 for Santana and Schilling in the AL.

I'm interested in seeing how this voting compares to the BBWA next week. I have a feeling it may disagree in the NL Cy Young race, but maybe the ink and paper writers will suprise us.

Read More ?


Posted by StatsGuru at 03:03 PM | Awards | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Stone Out
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Steve Stone resigned as a Cubs broadcaster. His letter to the fans is here.


I am sure you have read many things about this past season and my involvement in one or two controversies. However, you have never heard my story or my perspective of the events that have brought us to this point in time.

As has always been my personal policy, it is not my intention to divulge the content of private conversations I've had with others. Likewise, I do not want to be forced into sharing my side of the story.

I came to Chicago on the high road with my credibility and integrity. Thirty years later, I choose to leave the same way.


The Chicago Sun-Times has more on the story. There appear to be two reasons for the departure. Stone would like to move into a front office:

As for Stone, 57, he has never hid his desire to be a general manager or team president. With the Montreal Expos moving to Washington and seeking a general manager, Stone immediately becomes a top contender for that job -- though he has no front office experience.

''Washington is one of those jobs that seems to have no end of candidates,'' Stone said. ''I've always made a concerted effort to let people know that is something I would like to entertain. I will explore all possibilities.''


The other was his treatment by a small group of players:

Caray, who chose to return to the Braves and join his father, Skip, acknowledged the past season was difficult for both he and Stone off the field, revealing that Cubs management met with and tried to chastise the several players who were at the core of contentious feelings with Stone. Reliever Kent Mercker was a vocal opponent of Stone's, confronting him on the team charter jet and in the team hotel.

''Steve and I talked to John McDonough, Andy MacPhail, [general manager] Jim Hendry and [manager] Dusty Baker about the treatment of a small group of players,'' Caray said. ''And Andy MacPhail, Jim Hendry, John McDonough and Dusty Baker met several times with those players, and the behavior didn't change.

''That kind of behavior should never be tolerated. If the Cubs or any team want to be successful and win, then everyone from the broadcasters to the assistant trainer should be treated in a first-class way, and as an observer. Steve wasn't treated in a first-class way by two or three players.

''It left a sour taste in everyone's mouths.''


I didn't watch WGN much before this year, but I found Stone to be an intelligent commentator on the game of baseball. Whatever the future holds for him, I'm sure he'll be successful. Meanwhile, two of the best broadcasting jobs in baseball are vacant. Gentlemen, start your demos!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hot Hand
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The Sports Economist tries to use the Red Sox post-season win streak as an argument for team streakiness existing. I believe he makes a flaw in relating probability to outcomes in one area, however.


The conventional wisdom in the academic literature is that psychologists and behavioral economists have debunked the "myth of the hot hand," i.e. that players or teams are subject to streaky performance. Performance is just a random walk, they say. I don't buy it. The Red Sox were on a roll.

Note: The odds against LLL-WWWW-WWWW in a sequence of coin flips are 2047 to 1. Yes, Sox fans, deliverance from the curse of 1918 was a near miraculous event.


The problem is, any eleven game sequence that resulted in 8 wins for the Red Sox would have the exact same probability. So, if the LCS-WS went like this:

WLWLWWWWLWW

the odds of that would be 2047 to 1, but no one would consider it miraculous, since the Sox never trail in either of the two series. In fact, the odds of winning 8 out of 11, if the teams are evenly matched, is .113, a little better than 10%.

If you want to know the probability of the miracle, you have to start from where the Red Sox are down 3 games to 0. At that point, they have a 6.25% chance of winning the LCS. To win the championship, they have to win the LCS (6.25) and the Series (50%), so the chance of them winning everything at that point is 3.125%, or about 1 in 33. Those are low odds, and a comeback against them is certainly impressive. I don't know how many people would draw the miracle line there, however.

I also don't buy his "hot hand" argument. The Red Sox won 11 of 14 games played in the post season. The 95% confidence interval for a 14 game stretch is 3 to 11, so I'm not ready to reject the hypothesis that the Red Sox played teams that were evenly matched against them. I don't see any evidence that it was not a random occurance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
October 28, 2004
Red Sox Parade
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The Red Sox parade will be at 10 AM Saturday morning. Should be fun.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
I Must Have ESP(n)
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Looks like this prediction:


I would not be surprised to see Schilling go into politics once his baseball career is over.

Came true faster than I thought.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Predictions | Comments (8) | TrackBack (1)
The Exposés
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Ball-Wonk has discovered that their may be intelligence in the commissioner's office after all.


BallWonk cannot imagine that all these moves show a coordinated campaign to put an African-American face on our new team, the better to promote baseball to Washington's large black middle class and vibrant black entrepreneurial sector. No, wait, BallWonk can imagine that. What BallWonk doesn't understand is how Emperor Selig and his dark minions could suddenly have become so smart. Working to get black families on the bandwagon from day one is a really, really good idea. DC is a majority-black city with a thriving black middle class whose major sports teams are an historically white-attracting football team, a soccer team in whose stands Spanish is a first language, a lilly-white hockey team, and a basketball team so bad that it could lose an exhibition match against the Washington Generals.

Which is not to put down on our other teams. They're all wonderful in their own ways, but none has established itself in the heart of the black community. Why, DC United soccer games draw more fans than Washington Wizards basketball games. This gives baseball an opportunity to market itself to black families in Washington that it would not have in most other cities.

The natural conclusion of a campaign to put an African-American face on our new team would be naming it the Grays. And Major League baseball has unwittingly provided yet more evidence that it plans to do just that. The Homestead Grays' colors were blue and gray (well, mostly; like a lot of teams back in the 1930s and '40s, colors could change at random from year to year, but blue and gray were the defaults).

When Emperor Selig's dark minions created an official web page for our new team, they gave it a blue-and-gray facade and a logo in, you guessed it, blue and gray.


I would remind people that working in that office is one Sandy Alderson, who is one of the smartest people in baseball. And the one thing for which I have praise for Selig's tenure is his outreach to minorities. This is a marketing strategy that makes perfect sense. And though I'd like to see them named the Exposés because it would be very humorous, I'd much rather see them called the Grays than the Senators.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:09 PM | Team Movements | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox World
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The Boston Globe has published it's story on Red Sox fans around the world.


All over the world, legions of otherwise productive and healthy people found themselves unable to sleep for almost two weeks.

Some have been staying up in loud bars until the wee hours of the morning; parents are waking up children before dawn to engage in strange, nocturnal rituals that involve howling and dancing in the living room. Neighbors can't explain what has happened; colleagues and teachers are concerned.

They are Red Sox Nation living abroad -- waiting, hoping, and yearning in distant lands, foreign capitals, and even in war zones for The Moment.

But to see it they've had to struggle in time zones where the ninth inning rolls around just before it's time to put on the coffee or to get the kids ready for school. They have bags under their eyes, they're exhausted, and they've never been so happy in their lives about the hometown team, which finished a sweep of St. Louis last night for the franchise's first World Series title since 1918.


The Globe reporter sends her thanks to people who commented here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Feed Me!
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It appears that I'm the Feedster Feed of the Day! Thanks very much, Feedster!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
Watch the Series with Yogi
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For $250, you can watch the World Series with Yogi Berra (subscription required).
Update: Free link here! (Hat tip, SoccerDad.)


It's a lucky few who get to visit a museum and talk with the person it's named after. As Yogi Berra himself said at the 1998 dedication of the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center here: "This is a great honor. Usually you have to be dead to get something like this."

For the third year in a row, several dozen baseball fans and supporters of the museum gathered in the museum's amphitheater Tuesday night to watch the third game of the World Series -- this year between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals -- with Yogi. (The event is open to the public and advertised through the museum's Web site, its mailing list and the Yankees Web site; the charge is $250 a seat, most of which is tax deductible as a donation.) The theater is designed to look like the bleachers at Yankee Stadium, only, as Yogi says, "It's warmer in here and the language is nicer."


Yogi took some questions as well.

Q: "Yogi, who's your favorite catcher in the game today?"

A: "The guy on Detroit, 'Pudge' Rodriguez. He's built like me. I don't like tall catchers."

Q: "Yogi, who are you rooting for in the World Series?"

A: "The St. Louis Cardinals. They're my home town team."

(From Carmen Berra: "You shouldn't root for them, they didn't sign you.")

Q: "Yogi, what kind of padding did you use in your glove to keep your hand from getting sore when you were catching?"

A: "I used to stick a 'falsie' in the glove. It was perfect."

("I had to go buy them for him," said Carmen. "He was too shy.")


If you don't subscribe to the online Wall Street Journal, it's on page D-1 of the print version.

Thanks to Dave Myers for the tip.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Goodbye, Curse
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It's with a heavy heart that I link to the final post at Bambino's Curse. Last night I asked what Edward Cossette what he would call his blog now. But he's going to stop writing it.


Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, everyone who has stopped by this blog once, twice, or a couple hundred times in the past four seasons, thank you!

My work here is done.

This will be the final, regular post to the Bambino's Curse weblog. The site, however, and all the archives will remain online forever, as a small testament and recollection of what it was like to be a fan before the Red Sox won their first World Series since 1918. (Like anyone wants to relive that!)


I will miss Edward's fine prose, his literary references, his keen insights and his joy for the game without the vitrol that so often is found in Red Sox Nation. He promises to resurface (and even gets in a Dr. Who reference). Edward, the sooner you're back writing, the better.

Thanks, Edward, for all your fine work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Blogs | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
Waking the Dead
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I think this is a great gesture:


Workers at Mount Auburn Cemetery said yesterday they began to see tiny Red Sox flags blossom near some headstones at the historic graveyard in Cambridge.

''This is a place where the living and the dead meet," said Janet Heywood, a Mount Auburn vice president. ''It seems appropriate that people would want to invoke the spirit of their ancestors and let them know what's happening with the Red Sox."

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 AM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Celebration
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Sounds like fans stayed up all night to welcome the Red Sox back to Fenway park. Has anyone heard if there's going to be a big celebration in Boston today or tomorrow?

Update: Looks like the final decision on a parade will be made this afternoon, but they are leaning toward Saturday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Value of Information
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Seth Hackbarth at Sportblog.org asks an interesting question.


Does this championship vindicate sabermetrics?

My answer is no, sabermetrics was vindicated long ago by GM's like Branch Rickey and managers like Earl Weaver. For the last 10 years, the Yankees and the Braves understood sabermetrics in putting their teams together, in deciding who to trade and who to sign. They don't always force their managers to play sabermetric ball, but they do give them sabermetrically sound teams.

If this championship shows anything, it's the value of information. I'm an employee of Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). The Red Sox are one of our major league customers. BIS supplements Theo and his crew with fine details of the game. With this information, the Red Sox know the probability of Albert Pujols hitting a ball down the third base line. They know the probability of Jeff Suppan throwing a high pitch on a 3-1 count. They know what pitches a batter will chase, and what pitches he'll lay off. And more importantly, they appear to have found a way to communicate this to their batters and pitchers.

I don't know how the Red Sox use the stats they receive. Theo Epstein has stated that the Red Sox have many sources of information. My guess is that he uses one source to confirm another. I was watching the afternoon edition of Baseball Tonight yesterday, and the analysts were discussing Manny's HR off Jeff Suppan. They showed how the Astros were swinging and missing at Jeff's low pitches, but Manny laid off those. When Manny refused to swing, Suppan came up in the strikezone, and Manny walloped the ball. This is exactly the sort of thing that a scout can notice and data can confirm.

And consider this. The Red Sox played three teams in the post season. The Angels and Cardinals are not consumers of BIS information. They were swept. The Yankees are clients of BIS, and they nearly beat the Red Sox.

So while the World Series victory wasn't needed to vindicate Sabermetrics, it has vindicated an approach to the game where minute details matter. The Red Sox have a competitive advantage in information vs. most teams in the league, and they did an excellent job of exploiting that advantage this year.

Update: Check out this link, mentioned in the comments below. It gives you a good idea of how the front office, manager and players interact with the information available to them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1)
October 27, 2004
Red Sox World Champions
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The Boston Red Sox have swept the Cardinals to win the World Series and end the decades long championship drought. They did it with a game four shutout behind great pitching by Derek Lowe.

There's way too much credit to go around. The pitching was great. Schilling, Martinez and Lowe did not allow a run. The hitting was great. They had 9 hits tonight, six for extra bases. The managing and coaching was good. I can't say I saw a move by Francona that I disagreed with. And of course, the front office did a marvelous job of putting together a team that was able to do all these things. They also put together a great scouting operation that enabled them to attack both the Cardinals hitters and pitchers at their weaknesses.

Congratulations on a great season and a great win. The Red Sox are World Champions! There's a lot of people who will be very happy tonight. My neighbor across the street was born in 1917. She doesn't remember the Sox winning a World Series. My wife's uncle was born in 1919. He's on his deathbed, but he'll go knowing the Red Sox finally won the series. I'm sure there are lots of other stories like that out there.

Edward Cossette, what are you going to call your blog now?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 PM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (3)
Bottom of the 9th
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The Red Sox don't score in the top of the 9th. Isringhausen does his job. Can the Cardinals batters do theirs?

Update: Pujols is up, Foulke is on. He'll have to get the 3-4-5 hitters of the Cardinals.

Update: Pujols singles through Foulke legs. Rolen up next.

Update: Rolen flies out deep to right. He remains hitless in the series. It's Edmonds' turn.

Update: Edmonds swings and misses at an 0-2 pitch. Two out. This is where the Mets came back in 1986.

Update: Renteria grounds out to Foulke! The Red Sox win the World Series!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 8th
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Arroyo is on to pitch the 8th. Roger Cedeno bats for Molina.

Update: Roger pops out to Reese at 2nd. One down. Reggie Sanders up. He came on in the double switch.

Update: Arroyo walks Sanders. Embree comes out of the pen to face Womack and Walker.

Update: The Cardinals pinch hit for Womack with righty Luna. Sanders steals 2nd.

Update: Embree gets Walker to pop out. Three outs to go to a World Championship.

Update: Luna strikes out. It's up to Walker.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Insurance Policy
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Mueller singles, Nixon doubles for the third time in the game, and the Red Sox have men on 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Kapler runs for Nixon, and Isringhausen comes on to try to prevent these runners from scoring.

Update: Bellhorn walks, Reese runs and Millar pinch hits for Lowe. With none out, I'd let Lowe hit and let him finish the game.

Update: Millar strikes out. Lowe could have done that.

Update: Damon hits a ball between Pujols and Womack. Pujols playing in gets to it, and makes an off-balance throw to the plate to get the runner from third. A real nice play by Albert.

Update: Isringhausen falls behind 3-0 to Cabrera, but comes back to a full count. Orlando fouls off 3 pitches, then swings and misses to end the inning.

Great job by the closer, keeping the Red Sox off the boad with the bases loaded. The Cardinals are still in striking distance, and that may be the most positive inning they've had in this series.

Lowe, too is out of the game. As well as he was pitching, lifting him may prove to be a mistake for Boston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Six Outs to Go
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Mabry strikes out again (this time with no argument) to end the 7th. Lowe's only thrown 85 pitches, and 54 have been for strikes. If this score holds up, Derek will be Mr. Clinch, winning game 3 vs. Anaheim, game 7 vs. New York and game 4 vs. St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Pop-up-i
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Albert Pujols pops out after a Walker walk. Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are now 0 for 8 this game with a sacrifice and a walk.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Lunar Eclipse
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We just spent the last half-inning outside watching the moon be consumed by the earth's shadow. Very cool. Missed the Damon triple, but no scoring. Step outside if you have a chance and take a look.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | Other • | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Another Mental Error
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Mabry swings and misses at strike three, and Mabry doesn't run. Mabry thought he tipped it, but the replays look like he missed the ball. He didn't run, despite the ump calling it a strike, and was tagged out at the plate. When the ump called it a strike, he should have started running and argued later.

Update: Renteria gets stranded at third. The Sox still lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Walk on the Wild Side
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Marquis walks Ortiz to start the fifth. Is La Russa just trying to have Jason get through five so he won't have the distinction of none of his starters going five? What about trying to win the game?

Update: La Russa gets his five innings out of Marquis. He's pitched worse than the runs allowed indicates. He's lucky the score isn't 6-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Easy Three
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Another 1-2-3 inning for Lowe. He's now thrown 29 pitches, vs. 72 for Marquis. The Red Sox offense is just wearing down the starters, while the Cardinals are giving Lowe a break.

Update: The fourth inning is the same. Three up, three down, 9 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Locked and Loaded
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Jason Marquis has walked his third batter of the game. The bases are loaded with 2 out. No one is warming in the pen. The Cardinals may win or lose the Series here with Marquis.

Update: Nixon knocks a ball against the wall in right to drive in two more runs. The Sox lead 3-0, and Bellhorn is being walked to load the bases for Lowe. If Lowe drives in a run, the Cards really don't deserve to win this thing.

Update: Lowe strikes out to end the inning. It could have been a lot worse for the Cardinals, but Marquis has now thrown 72 pitches in three innings (41 balls). He can't last much longer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Lowe Pitch Count
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Two innings, and Derek Lowe has only thrown 20 pitches. He's getting the ball over the plate; 14 have been for strikes. At this rate, he can finish the game all by himself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Rightfield Goalie
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Lost in the Cardinals ineptitude this series is the fine defensive play by Larry Walker. He's made good catches, and at least three times he's held hard hit balls over his head to singles. He just cut off a Nixon double in the outfield with a terrific slide and scoop to prevent a triple.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | Defense • | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Albert, We Sacrifice For You!
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Womack leads off the first with a single, but then Walker sacrifices! Why Walker? He can hit the ball out of the park and give the Cards a 2-0 lead. He's a lefty against a righty! It just doesn't make sense.

La Russa only had 27 outs to work with. He can't afford to give them away with a great hitter at the plate.

Update: Pujols and Rolen ground out. Womack gets to third and is left there. The Cards are still getting no production from the middle of the order.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
What Would Damon Do?
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He'd start the game with a solo HR! The Red Sox lead again, 1-0.

My wife Marilyn just made an interesting observation. She asked why Damon doesn't bat 3rd so he could drive in more runs. Twenty years together, and some of my baseball knowledge has rubbed off on her! On a lot of teams, Damon would indeed be a fine #3 hitter. But on this team, with Ramirez and Ortiz, it's better to have Johnny's OBA at the top of the order.

Update:Marquis likes the #1. After 1 inning, he's allowed 1 hit, 1 run, 1 earned, 1 BB, 1 K and 1 HR. Unfortunately, pitching like that won't make him #1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Overture, curtains, lights, 
This is it, the night of nights 
No more rehearsing and nursing a part
We know every part by heart 
Overture, curtains, lights 
This is it, you'll hit the heights 
And oh what heights we'll hit 
On with the show this is it.

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in the uneviable position of being down 3 games in a best of seven format. And they also find themselves playing the only baseball team that has ever been successful in that situation. As Lisa Gray points out in comments to various posts here, the Cardinals can't hit, pitch or run. They're going to need to do at least one of those things well if they are going to win tonight.

They actually have a chance to hit and pitch well. Derek Lowe takes the mound for the Red Sox. Which Lowe will show up tonight? The one who had trouble getting an out during the regular season (.361 OBA allowed in 2004) or the one who doesn't give up hits in the post-season (.186 BA allowed in 2004). It can't be comforting to the Cardinals faithful that the person who has faced Lowe the most, Jim Edmonds, is 0 for 11 against him.

On the pitching side, the Cardinals send Jason Marquis to the hill to try to stop the Red Sox onslaught (no relation to Don Slaught). Based on his regular season numbers, Marquis should be the #1 starter for the Cardinals in the post season. Instead, he's posted a 6.48 ERA, and in 8 1/3 innings has struck out only 2 batters while walking 8 (he had a 2:1 K/W during the regular season). That won't wash against the Red Sox offense. Don't be surprised to see Millar at first base tonight. He as a very good history vs. Marquis (5 for 12 with a home run and a double).

But at this point, I don't really believe the outcome of this game does much to effect the outcome of the series. Even if the bad Lowe and Wakefield show up the next two nights, even if the Red Sox have to use Arroyo in game 6 because Schilling's ankle can't take another stitching, game 7 would be in the bag for the Red Sox. Jeff Suppan can't pitch in Fenway. Here's what I wrote about Suppan when he was traded to the Red Sox last year:

Suppan, like Jose Guillen, is having a career year. Prior to this year, his lowest ERA in a year in which he pitched 100 innings was 4.37. He's never been a strikeout pitcher and he ususally gives up a good number of HR. His walks are usually between 2.5 and 3.0 per 9 IP. This year, he's gotten those down to 2.0. He's also reduced his HR rate by 45%. Is it real? There's a good chance it's the park in Pittsburgh. He had a 2.88 ERA in Pittsburgh and a 4.36 ERA on the road. He's probably better than Mendoza, but I would not be surprised to see him get pounded at Fenway.

Jeff gave up 8 HR in 39 innings at Fenway park after the trade, 4 in 24 innings on the road. So La Russa would have the choice of Suppan on four days or Marquis on three. Whoever they send out, that pitcher would have to face Pedro. I'll give that one to the Sox 90% of the time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:04 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Fans Abroad!
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A Boston Globe reporter is doing a story on Red Sox fans abroad and their thoughts on the playoffs. If you fit into this category, leave your thoughts on the Red Sox post season here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | News Media | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Total Eclipse of the Heart
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Every now and then I fall apart.
The Red Sox have effectively shut down the heart of the Cardinals order in this series. Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are a combined 7 for 32, a .219 BA with only 2 walks. The hits they have gotten have been for power, however, five going for extra bases. With the rest of the team hitting .257 with 1 extra base hit, the Cardinals have not generated enough offense to overcome the Red Sox.

Things do look bleak for St. Louis. But there is a total lunar eclipse tonight.


A dark and growing scallop will then gradually envelop Earth's only natural satellite. Once in total shadow at 10:23 p.m. ET (7:23 PT), the Moon might turn a shade of deep red that frightened the ancients. No two eclipses are alike, however, and astronomers can't say for sure what color to expect, if any.

I remember the story of a man who had no tomorrow using an eclipse to escape his death penalty. Since the Red Sox are self proclaimed idiots, might the same trick work for the Cardinals? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 26, 2004
3-0 Lead
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A 4-1 victory for the Red Sox in game 3 gives Boston a 3-0 lead in the series. Pedro pitched great, the bullpen pitched great, and the offense supplied the power once again.

Rolen and Edmonds continue to be silent at the plate. Both were 0 for 3 today and Edmonds has the only hit between the two. Walker and Pujols cannot carry the team by themselves.

Of course, it used to be impossible to come back from an 0-3 deficit. How ironic would it be for the Red Sox to go from the greatest comeback in baseball history to the greatest choke in a week and a half? It's difficult to believe it could happen the way Boston is hitting and pitching, but I thought after the 19-8 drubbing that the Red Sox had nothing left. If there is a curse, this would be the cruelest incarnation of all.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Renteria will lead off for the Cardinals.

Update: Foulke is on for Boston. And to add insult to injury, it's raining.

Update: A weak swing and Renteria strikes out. Larry Walker up.

Update: Larry Walker connects for a homer to center field. Is it too little too late?

Update: Rolen strikes out looking! The Red Sox win!
Update: Pujols hits the ball a long way, but it comes down in Manny's glove just shy of the warning track. It's up to Rolen to keep the game alive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Eight Done
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It doesn't matter if it's Pedro or Timlin. The Cards go down in order once again in the 8th. They'll have the 9th spot leading off in the 9th.

Update: Sorry, top of the order is due up in the 9th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Pedro's Done
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Kevin Millar pinch hits for Pedro in the 8th. He allows just three hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 6. 97 pitches, 59 for strikes. He got off to a rough start, but some good luck (and bad baserunning) got Pedro out of trouble unscathed. After than, he was unhittable.

Jim Storer reports that the crowd is very quiet at Busch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Good Pitching
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Pedro strikes out Pujols to end the bottom of the 6th. That's 11 in a row retired by Martinez. Pedro had thrown 64 pitches through four. He's thrown 19 over the last two innings. It looks like Pedro will give the bullpen a nice break as well tonight.

The Cardinals had him on the ropes early tonight, but failed to deliver the knockout punch. Martinez gave them two chances tonight; you can't hope for more than that vs. Pedro.

Update: Pedro gets the side again in the 7th. The Cardinals heart of the order has stopped beating, and the rest of the lineup can't restart the offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Pitching
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Calero walks Pedro with 1 out in the 6th. There's not excuse for that. Pedro can't swing; just throw the ball somewhere over the plate. With the blunders they've made tonight, the Cardinals really don't deserve to win this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Another Short Outing?
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Suppan is in trouble in the fifth. He's given up a double to Damon and a single to Cabrera. He's facing the middle of the order with none out. The Cardinals have not had a starter get out of the fifth yet in this series.

Update: Manny singles with two strikes throught the short stop hole. It's 3-0 Red Sox, and Suppan will face Ortiz.

Update: Ortiz flies out to center. One out.

Update: Varitek hits into a force out. 1st and 3rd with 2 out for Mueller.

Update: Mueller delivers another hit to add another run to the Boston total. It's 4-0 in the 4th, and that's it for Suppan. Once again, the Cardinals starter can't get out of the fifth.

Suppan leaves after throwing 89 pitches, 56 for strikes, a good ratio. But the Red Sox are just wearing down these starters, forcing La Russa into his pen early for the third straight game. Down four runs to Pedro is a tough position for any team, but when you could have scored two more runs, it must hurt even more.

Update: Reyes gets St. Louis out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Martinez Magic
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An easy fourth for Pedro. He gets Rolen, Edmonds and Sanders on a ground out, fly out and strikeout. Talk about diversity! Looks like he may be finding his groove.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Power Ball
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The Red Sox don't worry about base running mistakes. Mueller doubles, and Nixon hits a single to deep right to drive Bill in. Hit the ball far enough, and it's easy to score. It's 2-0 Red Sox in the fourth.

Update: With runners on base, Pedro is swinging the bat! It's 0-2.

Update: Pedro strikes out looking anyway. But he has a 2-0 lead as he'll take the mound for the 4th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Suppan Can Hit
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Pedro didn't get the bat off his shoulder during his plate appearance. Suppan gets wood on the ball, fouling off a couple of pitches before ground one slowly down the third-base line for a single. Suppan makes Pedro look bad.

Update: Renteria hits one over Nixon's head for a double. Nixon also hits a puddle and slides on his back, but Suppan does not score.

Now Walker grounds to first, and Suppan makes the 2nd Cardinals baserunning blunder of the game. He should have scored easily on the grounder, but he stops halfway and gets caught retreating to third. The Red Sox were giving the run away with the infield back. I thought NL teams knew how to run the bases!

Update: Pedro gets Pujols to end the inning. Pedro's minnie-me lucky charm must be in the stadium tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Man On for Manny
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Big mistake by Suppan. With two strikes on Cabrera, he loses him with a walk. It's best to keep the bases empty for Manny.

Update: Manny flies to right. It works out well for the Cardinals. Ortiz will be up with none on in the 4th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Easy Second
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Jeff Suppan gets the side 1-2-3 in the 2nd. He's throwing well; 23 of his 36 pitches have been for strikes.

Update: Pedro gets the 6-7-8 hitters in order as well. He'll lead off the 2nd. Pedro is about even with balls and strikes. He's thrown 37 pitches, 19 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Walk-er
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Pedro issues his first walk of the night to the 2nd batter he faces, Larry Walker. Not a good person to put on base with the fire power coming up behind him.

Update: Pujols reaches on a grounder that Mueller could only knock down. Nettles would have had him. :-)

Update: Pedro walks Rolen to load the bases. Again, the number of walks Pedro has been giving up in the post season indicates something's wrong. He's pitched more innings this season than he has in a long time. I think he worn out.

Update: Bad baserunning gets Pedro off the hook. Walker might have beaten that throw 10 years ago, but the ball was just too shallow. A golden opportunity lost by the Cards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Game 3
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Suppan starts the game by getting ahead of Damon 0-2, and eventually gets him to line to right. My good friend Jim Storer is at the game and with any luck I'll get an in-game report from him.

Update: Suppan had been working low to Manny, but he gets one up in the strikezone and Manny hammers it into the left field stands. It's 1-0 Boston. It's Manny's first extra-base hit of the World Series. He's had 19 hits in the post season but only 5 for extra bases.

Update: Ortiz gets a hit, but there's no other damage in the first. Pedro faces the Cardinals next.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Boo Who?
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The afternoon version of Baseball Tonight had an interview with Boo Ferriss of the 1946 Red Sox, who threw a shutout in the 1946 World Series. I have a couple of questions about Mr. Ferriss:


  1. Is Halloween his favorite holiday?

  2. When he did something good, did the crowd say, "Booooooooo?"


Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Home Field Advantage
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Tim Lambert takes a very statistical look at what it means to have home field advantage in the World Series. He even has an interactive calcualator! Excellent job, Tim!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:33 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The weather doesn't look too good for game 3 tonight in St. Louis. You can follow the radar here. But, if things dry out, Pedro Martinez will take the mound to face Jeff Suppan.

Suppan, like all the Cardinals starters, is an okay pitcher who strikes out just enough batters and walks few. Suppan has always had a tendancy to give up the long ball. He had a very interesting home/road split during the regular season. Despite giving up fewer HR, fewer walks and striking out more batters, Suppan's ERA was 1.2 runs higher in Busch. He allowed 40 more hits at home than on the road. Was it just his defense playing poorly behind him in those games? He did give up many more doubles at home, so it could be the long hits just stayed in the park in St. Louis. The Red Sox are good at getting the long hit; this should be a good matchup for the Sox.

Edward Cossette is giddy about Pedro pitching tonight.


I just had another ohmygaw thought: PEDRO MARTINEZ IS PITCHING IN HIS FIRST WORLD SERIES EVER. FOR THE BOSTON RED SOX. WHO ARE UP 2-0. IN THE WORLD SERIES!

The problem is that Pedro hasn't pitched like Pedro for a while. He's not the shut'em down lights out Pedro of 1998-2003. He's walked 11 in 20 post-season innings this year. He's given up 20 hits. He still strikes out batters, with 20 of those as well. He's still very good, but he's not so good that he's the automatic win anymore. And so people may be getting ahead of themselves when they start writing as if this is going to be Pedro's last game in a Red Sox uniform:

One game to out-Curt Curt. One game to say goodbye. One game to say, "Pay me." One game to show off for his countrymen watching on TV down in the Dominican. One game to have people back home chanting "Pe-dro!" in the living rooms and bars of New England. One game to remind everyone that he still can pitch as well as anyone in the world. One game to put the Boston Red Sox up, 3-0.

If this post season has proved anything, it's that anything is possible.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Out of Control
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Fine analysis in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch of the series so far. The Cardinals pitchers are walking too many batters.


The Cardinals walked 14 and hit three batters while losing twice in Boston. Only three times all season did they walk as many in consecutive games, and never did they walk as many as six in back-to-back starts.

"That was so much against what Dunc preaches and what we've been executing all year long," La Russa said. "I thought we pitched backward. We walked guys with nobody on, then got behind and threw balls down the middle. That's a formula for some crooked numbers."

The Cardinals were 88-33 in the regular season when they walked three or fewer, 17-24 when they free-passed four or more. They weren't the league's most overpowering staff, a fact that allowed them to stay below the radar despite barely falling short of the lowest ERA in either league. But what the Cardinals did was maximize a gilded defense with the game's best ground ball-to-fly ball ratio while refusing to provide easy openings for large innings.


Part of the Cardinals pitching woes is really the Boston offense:

Of the possible explanations for the control fritz - stage fright, slick baseballs, fatigue, enforcement of a tight strike zone or a patient Red Sox lineup - the Cardinals give most of the credit to their selective opponents.

"I don't think anybody's tired except for maybe Matt, who pitched a day short," La Russa said Monday, the day after Morris started on three days' rest for the first time in his career. "I just don't think that we executed when we had to. I also think they did a good job being aggressive in the strike zone. It's a good way to hit. It's the way we hit. It's the kind of at-bats we have.

"We're not some big, free-swinging club. We're as good with two strikes as anybody. I see a lot of them in us and us in them.


Posted by StatsGuru at 06:55 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 25, 2004
Happy Birthday!
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It's Pedro Martinez's birthday. We'll see if the 33 year old will celebrate with a win tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
Orioles Warehouse
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Just came across this Orioles blog, Orioles Warehouse. Check out the excellent post on Doc Rodgers dissmissal as director of minor-league operations.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)