Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 30, 2004
Eric's Eye, Part II
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Earlier this season I commented on how Eric Chavez's walk numbers had improved. Little did I know at the time that Chavez would wind up leading the AL in walks with 95, despite missing 37 games. His previous career high was 65, and while his BA was one point below his career average, his OBA this season jumped 43 points above his career mark! See, you can turn outs into walks. The process works.

What's also interesting is that this is the first season since 1981 (strike) or 1976 (non-strike) that the AL leader in walks drew fewer than 100 walks. Even including strike years and 154 games seasons, this is only the 16th time in AL history that the leader had 95 walks or fewer. Why is that?

Overall, walks per 9 in the AL increased this year from 3.2 in 2002 to 3.3 in 2004. So it's not as if pitchers were issuing fewer walks. I think the problem is the lack of the super selective slugger in the AL this year. Thome has gone to the NL and Giambi and Thomas were both injured this year. Sluggers like Manny Ramirez and Vlad Guerrero, while drawing plenty of walks, have never taken 100 in their careers. Alex Rodriguez only did it once.

Likewise, the 100 walk leadoff man has disappeared also. Where is the Rickey Henderson or Tony Phillips or Mickey Tettleton type of player? Why have they disappeared. Is there anyone coming up through the farm systems that is going to take their place?

I like these types of players. If anyone has any insight as to why they have vanished from the AL, I would appreciate your input.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2004
Souvenirs
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Jim Storer just returned from St. Louis (happy birthday, Jim!) where he attended games 3 and 4 of the World Series. On his way back he and his buddies stopped by a Cardinals gear store at the airport. They found minature Cardinals bobble head dolls with the following label on the back:


Warning: Choking Hazard

Just too funny.

Update: Jim forwards this picutre from Ed Vescovi:
Cardinals choke hazard.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Internet Baseball Writers Awards
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Christian Ruzich has the results of the first annual Internet Baseball Writers Association (IBWA) awards. My ballot can be found in the extended entry below.

(A more readable version of the results can be found here.)

First off, I was the person who voted for Ryan Drese. I liked Drese's performance all year. He's one of the people who helped improve Texas greatly. It was purely a I like the guy, and I'm going to see he gets some recognition vote.

I disagree with the AL Player of the year voting in that the Yankees trio of Sheffield, Matsui and A-Rod did not get the votes they deserved. They were in the top 3 of win shares most of the year. I don't have a problem with Vlad winning; he had a great season. But I think voters in general should have ranked the three New Yorkers higher.

I was great to see Randy Johnson win the NL Pitcher of the year. This group of writers recognizes that wins don't always equate to pitching excellence. And it also came very close to be a unanimous 1-2 for Santana and Schilling in the AL.

I'm interested in seeing how this voting compares to the BBWA next week. I have a feeling it may disagree in the NL Cy Young race, but maybe the ink and paper writers will suprise us.

Read More ?


Posted by StatsGuru at 03:03 PM | Awards | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Stone Out
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Steve Stone resigned as a Cubs broadcaster. His letter to the fans is here.


I am sure you have read many things about this past season and my involvement in one or two controversies. However, you have never heard my story or my perspective of the events that have brought us to this point in time.

As has always been my personal policy, it is not my intention to divulge the content of private conversations I've had with others. Likewise, I do not want to be forced into sharing my side of the story.

I came to Chicago on the high road with my credibility and integrity. Thirty years later, I choose to leave the same way.


The Chicago Sun-Times has more on the story. There appear to be two reasons for the departure. Stone would like to move into a front office:

As for Stone, 57, he has never hid his desire to be a general manager or team president. With the Montreal Expos moving to Washington and seeking a general manager, Stone immediately becomes a top contender for that job -- though he has no front office experience.

''Washington is one of those jobs that seems to have no end of candidates,'' Stone said. ''I've always made a concerted effort to let people know that is something I would like to entertain. I will explore all possibilities.''


The other was his treatment by a small group of players:

Caray, who chose to return to the Braves and join his father, Skip, acknowledged the past season was difficult for both he and Stone off the field, revealing that Cubs management met with and tried to chastise the several players who were at the core of contentious feelings with Stone. Reliever Kent Mercker was a vocal opponent of Stone's, confronting him on the team charter jet and in the team hotel.

''Steve and I talked to John McDonough, Andy MacPhail, [general manager] Jim Hendry and [manager] Dusty Baker about the treatment of a small group of players,'' Caray said. ''And Andy MacPhail, Jim Hendry, John McDonough and Dusty Baker met several times with those players, and the behavior didn't change.

''That kind of behavior should never be tolerated. If the Cubs or any team want to be successful and win, then everyone from the broadcasters to the assistant trainer should be treated in a first-class way, and as an observer. Steve wasn't treated in a first-class way by two or three players.

''It left a sour taste in everyone's mouths.''


I didn't watch WGN much before this year, but I found Stone to be an intelligent commentator on the game of baseball. Whatever the future holds for him, I'm sure he'll be successful. Meanwhile, two of the best broadcasting jobs in baseball are vacant. Gentlemen, start your demos!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hot Hand
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The Sports Economist tries to use the Red Sox post-season win streak as an argument for team streakiness existing. I believe he makes a flaw in relating probability to outcomes in one area, however.


The conventional wisdom in the academic literature is that psychologists and behavioral economists have debunked the "myth of the hot hand," i.e. that players or teams are subject to streaky performance. Performance is just a random walk, they say. I don't buy it. The Red Sox were on a roll.

Note: The odds against LLL-WWWW-WWWW in a sequence of coin flips are 2047 to 1. Yes, Sox fans, deliverance from the curse of 1918 was a near miraculous event.


The problem is, any eleven game sequence that resulted in 8 wins for the Red Sox would have the exact same probability. So, if the LCS-WS went like this:

WLWLWWWWLWW

the odds of that would be 2047 to 1, but no one would consider it miraculous, since the Sox never trail in either of the two series. In fact, the odds of winning 8 out of 11, if the teams are evenly matched, is .113, a little better than 10%.

If you want to know the probability of the miracle, you have to start from where the Red Sox are down 3 games to 0. At that point, they have a 6.25% chance of winning the LCS. To win the championship, they have to win the LCS (6.25) and the Series (50%), so the chance of them winning everything at that point is 3.125%, or about 1 in 33. Those are low odds, and a comeback against them is certainly impressive. I don't know how many people would draw the miracle line there, however.

I also don't buy his "hot hand" argument. The Red Sox won 11 of 14 games played in the post season. The 95% confidence interval for a 14 game stretch is 3 to 11, so I'm not ready to reject the hypothesis that the Red Sox played teams that were evenly matched against them. I don't see any evidence that it was not a random occurance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
October 28, 2004
Red Sox Parade
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The Red Sox parade will be at 10 AM Saturday morning. Should be fun.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
I Must Have ESP(n)
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Looks like this prediction:


I would not be surprised to see Schilling go into politics once his baseball career is over.

Came true faster than I thought.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Predictions | Comments (8) | TrackBack (1)
The Exposés
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Ball-Wonk has discovered that their may be intelligence in the commissioner's office after all.


BallWonk cannot imagine that all these moves show a coordinated campaign to put an African-American face on our new team, the better to promote baseball to Washington's large black middle class and vibrant black entrepreneurial sector. No, wait, BallWonk can imagine that. What BallWonk doesn't understand is how Emperor Selig and his dark minions could suddenly have become so smart. Working to get black families on the bandwagon from day one is a really, really good idea. DC is a majority-black city with a thriving black middle class whose major sports teams are an historically white-attracting football team, a soccer team in whose stands Spanish is a first language, a lilly-white hockey team, and a basketball team so bad that it could lose an exhibition match against the Washington Generals.

Which is not to put down on our other teams. They're all wonderful in their own ways, but none has established itself in the heart of the black community. Why, DC United soccer games draw more fans than Washington Wizards basketball games. This gives baseball an opportunity to market itself to black families in Washington that it would not have in most other cities.

The natural conclusion of a campaign to put an African-American face on our new team would be naming it the Grays. And Major League baseball has unwittingly provided yet more evidence that it plans to do just that. The Homestead Grays' colors were blue and gray (well, mostly; like a lot of teams back in the 1930s and '40s, colors could change at random from year to year, but blue and gray were the defaults).

When Emperor Selig's dark minions created an official web page for our new team, they gave it a blue-and-gray facade and a logo in, you guessed it, blue and gray.


I would remind people that working in that office is one Sandy Alderson, who is one of the smartest people in baseball. And the one thing for which I have praise for Selig's tenure is his outreach to minorities. This is a marketing strategy that makes perfect sense. And though I'd like to see them named the Exposés because it would be very humorous, I'd much rather see them called the Grays than the Senators.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:09 PM | Team Movements | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox World
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The Boston Globe has published it's story on Red Sox fans around the world.


All over the world, legions of otherwise productive and healthy people found themselves unable to sleep for almost two weeks.

Some have been staying up in loud bars until the wee hours of the morning; parents are waking up children before dawn to engage in strange, nocturnal rituals that involve howling and dancing in the living room. Neighbors can't explain what has happened; colleagues and teachers are concerned.

They are Red Sox Nation living abroad -- waiting, hoping, and yearning in distant lands, foreign capitals, and even in war zones for The Moment.

But to see it they've had to struggle in time zones where the ninth inning rolls around just before it's time to put on the coffee or to get the kids ready for school. They have bags under their eyes, they're exhausted, and they've never been so happy in their lives about the hometown team, which finished a sweep of St. Louis last night for the franchise's first World Series title since 1918.


The Globe reporter sends her thanks to people who commented here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Feed Me!
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It appears that I'm the Feedster Feed of the Day! Thanks very much, Feedster!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
Watch the Series with Yogi
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For $250, you can watch the World Series with Yogi Berra (subscription required).
Update: Free link here! (Hat tip, SoccerDad.)


It's a lucky few who get to visit a museum and talk with the person it's named after. As Yogi Berra himself said at the 1998 dedication of the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center here: "This is a great honor. Usually you have to be dead to get something like this."

For the third year in a row, several dozen baseball fans and supporters of the museum gathered in the museum's amphitheater Tuesday night to watch the third game of the World Series -- this year between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals -- with Yogi. (The event is open to the public and advertised through the museum's Web site, its mailing list and the Yankees Web site; the charge is $250 a seat, most of which is tax deductible as a donation.) The theater is designed to look like the bleachers at Yankee Stadium, only, as Yogi says, "It's warmer in here and the language is nicer."


Yogi took some questions as well.

Q: "Yogi, who's your favorite catcher in the game today?"

A: "The guy on Detroit, 'Pudge' Rodriguez. He's built like me. I don't like tall catchers."

Q: "Yogi, who are you rooting for in the World Series?"

A: "The St. Louis Cardinals. They're my home town team."

(From Carmen Berra: "You shouldn't root for them, they didn't sign you.")

Q: "Yogi, what kind of padding did you use in your glove to keep your hand from getting sore when you were catching?"

A: "I used to stick a 'falsie' in the glove. It was perfect."

("I had to go buy them for him," said Carmen. "He was too shy.")


If you don't subscribe to the online Wall Street Journal, it's on page D-1 of the print version.

Thanks to Dave Myers for the tip.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Goodbye, Curse
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It's with a heavy heart that I link to the final post at Bambino's Curse. Last night I asked what Edward Cossette what he would call his blog now. But he's going to stop writing it.


Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, everyone who has stopped by this blog once, twice, or a couple hundred times in the past four seasons, thank you!

My work here is done.

This will be the final, regular post to the Bambino's Curse weblog. The site, however, and all the archives will remain online forever, as a small testament and recollection of what it was like to be a fan before the Red Sox won their first World Series since 1918. (Like anyone wants to relive that!)


I will miss Edward's fine prose, his literary references, his keen insights and his joy for the game without the vitrol that so often is found in Red Sox Nation. He promises to resurface (and even gets in a Dr. Who reference). Edward, the sooner you're back writing, the better.

Thanks, Edward, for all your fine work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Blogs | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
Waking the Dead
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I think this is a great gesture:


Workers at Mount Auburn Cemetery said yesterday they began to see tiny Red Sox flags blossom near some headstones at the historic graveyard in Cambridge.

''This is a place where the living and the dead meet," said Janet Heywood, a Mount Auburn vice president. ''It seems appropriate that people would want to invoke the spirit of their ancestors and let them know what's happening with the Red Sox."

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 AM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Celebration
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Sounds like fans stayed up all night to welcome the Red Sox back to Fenway park. Has anyone heard if there's going to be a big celebration in Boston today or tomorrow?

Update: Looks like the final decision on a parade will be made this afternoon, but they are leaning toward Saturday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Value of Information
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Seth Hackbarth at Sportblog.org asks an interesting question.


Does this championship vindicate sabermetrics?

My answer is no, sabermetrics was vindicated long ago by GM's like Branch Rickey and managers like Earl Weaver. For the last 10 years, the Yankees and the Braves understood sabermetrics in putting their teams together, in deciding who to trade and who to sign. They don't always force their managers to play sabermetric ball, but they do give them sabermetrically sound teams.

If this championship shows anything, it's the value of information. I'm an employee of Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). The Red Sox are one of our major league customers. BIS supplements Theo and his crew with fine details of the game. With this information, the Red Sox know the probability of Albert Pujols hitting a ball down the third base line. They know the probability of Jeff Suppan throwing a high pitch on a 3-1 count. They know what pitches a batter will chase, and what pitches he'll lay off. And more importantly, they appear to have found a way to communicate this to their batters and pitchers.

I don't know how the Red Sox use the stats they receive. Theo Epstein has stated that the Red Sox have many sources of information. My guess is that he uses one source to confirm another. I was watching the afternoon edition of Baseball Tonight yesterday, and the analysts were discussing Manny's HR off Jeff Suppan. They showed how the Astros were swinging and missing at Jeff's low pitches, but Manny laid off those. When Manny refused to swing, Suppan came up in the strikezone, and Manny walloped the ball. This is exactly the sort of thing that a scout can notice and data can confirm.

And consider this. The Red Sox played three teams in the post season. The Angels and Cardinals are not consumers of BIS information. They were swept. The Yankees are clients of BIS, and they nearly beat the Red Sox.

So while the World Series victory wasn't needed to vindicate Sabermetrics, it has vindicated an approach to the game where minute details matter. The Red Sox have a competitive advantage in information vs. most teams in the league, and they did an excellent job of exploiting that advantage this year.

Update: Check out this link, mentioned in the comments below. It gives you a good idea of how the front office, manager and players interact with the information available to them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1)
October 27, 2004
Red Sox World Champions
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The Boston Red Sox have swept the Cardinals to win the World Series and end the decades long championship drought. They did it with a game four shutout behind great pitching by Derek Lowe.

There's way too much credit to go around. The pitching was great. Schilling, Martinez and Lowe did not allow a run. The hitting was great. They had 9 hits tonight, six for extra bases. The managing and coaching was good. I can't say I saw a move by Francona that I disagreed with. And of course, the front office did a marvelous job of putting together a team that was able to do all these things. They also put together a great scouting operation that enabled them to attack both the Cardinals hitters and pitchers at their weaknesses.

Congratulations on a great season and a great win. The Red Sox are World Champions! There's a lot of people who will be very happy tonight. My neighbor across the street was born in 1917. She doesn't remember the Sox winning a World Series. My wife's uncle was born in 1919. He's on his deathbed, but he'll go knowing the Red Sox finally won the series. I'm sure there are lots of other stories like that out there.

Edward Cossette, what are you going to call your blog now?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 PM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (3)
Bottom of the 9th
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The Red Sox don't score in the top of the 9th. Isringhausen does his job. Can the Cardinals batters do theirs?

Update: Pujols is up, Foulke is on. He'll have to get the 3-4-5 hitters of the Cardinals.

Update: Pujols singles through Foulke legs. Rolen up next.

Update: Rolen flies out deep to right. He remains hitless in the series. It's Edmonds' turn.

Update: Edmonds swings and misses at an 0-2 pitch. Two out. This is where the Mets came back in 1986.

Update: Renteria grounds out to Foulke! The Red Sox win the World Series!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 8th
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Arroyo is on to pitch the 8th. Roger Cedeno bats for Molina.

Update: Roger pops out to Reese at 2nd. One down. Reggie Sanders up. He came on in the double switch.

Update: Arroyo walks Sanders. Embree comes out of the pen to face Womack and Walker.

Update: The Cardinals pinch hit for Womack with righty Luna. Sanders steals 2nd.

Update: Embree gets Walker to pop out. Three outs to go to a World Championship.

Update: Luna strikes out. It's up to Walker.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Insurance Policy
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Mueller singles, Nixon doubles for the third time in the game, and the Red Sox have men on 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Kapler runs for Nixon, and Isringhausen comes on to try to prevent these runners from scoring.

Update: Bellhorn walks, Reese runs and Millar pinch hits for Lowe. With none out, I'd let Lowe hit and let him finish the game.

Update: Millar strikes out. Lowe could have done that.

Update: Damon hits a ball between Pujols and Womack. Pujols playing in gets to it, and makes an off-balance throw to the plate to get the runner from third. A real nice play by Albert.

Update: Isringhausen falls behind 3-0 to Cabrera, but comes back to a full count. Orlando fouls off 3 pitches, then swings and misses to end the inning.

Great job by the closer, keeping the Red Sox off the boad with the bases loaded. The Cardinals are still in striking distance, and that may be the most positive inning they've had in this series.

Lowe, too is out of the game. As well as he was pitching, lifting him may prove to be a mistake for Boston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Six Outs to Go
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Mabry strikes out again (this time with no argument) to end the 7th. Lowe's only thrown 85 pitches, and 54 have been for strikes. If this score holds up, Derek will be Mr. Clinch, winning game 3 vs. Anaheim, game 7 vs. New York and game 4 vs. St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Pop-up-i
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Albert Pujols pops out after a Walker walk. Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are now 0 for 8 this game with a sacrifice and a walk.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Lunar Eclipse
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We just spent the last half-inning outside watching the moon be consumed by the earth's shadow. Very cool. Missed the Damon triple, but no scoring. Step outside if you have a chance and take a look.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | Other • | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Another Mental Error
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Mabry swings and misses at strike three, and Mabry doesn't run. Mabry thought he tipped it, but the replays look like he missed the ball. He didn't run, despite the ump calling it a strike, and was tagged out at the plate. When the ump called it a strike, he should have started running and argued later.

Update: Renteria gets stranded at third. The Sox still lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Walk on the Wild Side
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Marquis walks Ortiz to start the fifth. Is La Russa just trying to have Jason get through five so he won't have the distinction of none of his starters going five? What about trying to win the game?

Update: La Russa gets his five innings out of Marquis. He's pitched worse than the runs allowed indicates. He's lucky the score isn't 6-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Easy Three
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Another 1-2-3 inning for Lowe. He's now thrown 29 pitches, vs. 72 for Marquis. The Red Sox offense is just wearing down the starters, while the Cardinals are giving Lowe a break.

Update: The fourth inning is the same. Three up, three down, 9 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Locked and Loaded
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Jason Marquis has walked his third batter of the game. The bases are loaded with 2 out. No one is warming in the pen. The Cardinals may win or lose the Series here with Marquis.

Update: Nixon knocks a ball against the wall in right to drive in two more runs. The Sox lead 3-0, and Bellhorn is being walked to load the bases for Lowe. If Lowe drives in a run, the Cards really don't deserve to win this thing.

Update: Lowe strikes out to end the inning. It could have been a lot worse for the Cardinals, but Marquis has now thrown 72 pitches in three innings (41 balls). He can't last much longer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Lowe Pitch Count
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Two innings, and Derek Lowe has only thrown 20 pitches. He's getting the ball over the plate; 14 have been for strikes. At this rate, he can finish the game all by himself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Rightfield Goalie
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Lost in the Cardinals ineptitude this series is the fine defensive play by Larry Walker. He's made good catches, and at least three times he's held hard hit balls over his head to singles. He just cut off a Nixon double in the outfield with a terrific slide and scoop to prevent a triple.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | Defense • | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Albert, We Sacrifice For You!
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Womack leads off the first with a single, but then Walker sacrifices! Why Walker? He can hit the ball out of the park and give the Cards a 2-0 lead. He's a lefty against a righty! It just doesn't make sense.

La Russa only had 27 outs to work with. He can't afford to give them away with a great hitter at the plate.

Update: Pujols and Rolen ground out. Womack gets to third and is left there. The Cards are still getting no production from the middle of the order.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
What Would Damon Do?
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He'd start the game with a solo HR! The Red Sox lead again, 1-0.

My wife Marilyn just made an interesting observation. She asked why Damon doesn't bat 3rd so he could drive in more runs. Twenty years together, and some of my baseball knowledge has rubbed off on her! On a lot of teams, Damon would indeed be a fine #3 hitter. But on this team, with Ramirez and Ortiz, it's better to have Johnny's OBA at the top of the order.

Update:Marquis likes the #1. After 1 inning, he's allowed 1 hit, 1 run, 1 earned, 1 BB, 1 K and 1 HR. Unfortunately, pitching like that won't make him #1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Overture, curtains, lights, 
This is it, the night of nights 
No more rehearsing and nursing a part
We know every part by heart 
Overture, curtains, lights 
This is it, you'll hit the heights 
And oh what heights we'll hit 
On with the show this is it.

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in the uneviable position of being down 3 games in a best of seven format. And they also find themselves playing the only baseball team that has ever been successful in that situation. As Lisa Gray points out in comments to various posts here, the Cardinals can't hit, pitch or run. They're going to need to do at least one of those things well if they are going to win tonight.

They actually have a chance to hit and pitch well. Derek Lowe takes the mound for the Red Sox. Which Lowe will show up tonight? The one who had trouble getting an out during the regular season (.361 OBA allowed in 2004) or the one who doesn't give up hits in the post-season (.186 BA allowed in 2004). It can't be comforting to the Cardinals faithful that the person who has faced Lowe the most, Jim Edmonds, is 0 for 11 against him.

On the pitching side, the Cardinals send Jason Marquis to the hill to try to stop the Red Sox onslaught (no relation to Don Slaught). Based on his regular season numbers, Marquis should be the #1 starter for the Cardinals in the post season. Instead, he's posted a 6.48 ERA, and in 8 1/3 innings has struck out only 2 batters while walking 8 (he had a 2:1 K/W during the regular season). That won't wash against the Red Sox offense. Don't be surprised to see Millar at first base tonight. He as a very good history vs. Marquis (5 for 12 with a home run and a double).

But at this point, I don't really believe the outcome of this game does much to effect the outcome of the series. Even if the bad Lowe and Wakefield show up the next two nights, even if the Red Sox have to use Arroyo in game 6 because Schilling's ankle can't take another stitching, game 7 would be in the bag for the Red Sox. Jeff Suppan can't pitch in Fenway. Here's what I wrote about Suppan when he was traded to the Red Sox last year:

Suppan, like Jose Guillen, is having a career year. Prior to this year, his lowest ERA in a year in which he pitched 100 innings was 4.37. He's never been a strikeout pitcher and he ususally gives up a good number of HR. His walks are usually between 2.5 and 3.0 per 9 IP. This year, he's gotten those down to 2.0. He's also reduced his HR rate by 45%. Is it real? There's a good chance it's the park in Pittsburgh. He had a 2.88 ERA in Pittsburgh and a 4.36 ERA on the road. He's probably better than Mendoza, but I would not be surprised to see him get pounded at Fenway.

Jeff gave up 8 HR in 39 innings at Fenway park after the trade, 4 in 24 innings on the road. So La Russa would have the choice of Suppan on four days or Marquis on three. Whoever they send out, that pitcher would have to face Pedro. I'll give that one to the Sox 90% of the time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:04 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Fans Abroad!
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A Boston Globe reporter is doing a story on Red Sox fans abroad and their thoughts on the playoffs. If you fit into this category, leave your thoughts on the Red Sox post season here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | News Media | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Total Eclipse of the Heart
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Every now and then I fall apart.
The Red Sox have effectively shut down the heart of the Cardinals order in this series. Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are a combined 7 for 32, a .219 BA with only 2 walks. The hits they have gotten have been for power, however, five going for extra bases. With the rest of the team hitting .257 with 1 extra base hit, the Cardinals have not generated enough offense to overcome the Red Sox.

Things do look bleak for St. Louis. But there is a total lunar eclipse tonight.


A dark and growing scallop will then gradually envelop Earth's only natural satellite. Once in total shadow at 10:23 p.m. ET (7:23 PT), the Moon might turn a shade of deep red that frightened the ancients. No two eclipses are alike, however, and astronomers can't say for sure what color to expect, if any.

I remember the story of a man who had no tomorrow using an eclipse to escape his death penalty. Since the Red Sox are self proclaimed idiots, might the same trick work for the Cardinals? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 26, 2004
3-0 Lead
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A 4-1 victory for the Red Sox in game 3 gives Boston a 3-0 lead in the series. Pedro pitched great, the bullpen pitched great, and the offense supplied the power once again.

Rolen and Edmonds continue to be silent at the plate. Both were 0 for 3 today and Edmonds has the only hit between the two. Walker and Pujols cannot carry the team by themselves.

Of course, it used to be impossible to come back from an 0-3 deficit. How ironic would it be for the Red Sox to go from the greatest comeback in baseball history to the greatest choke in a week and a half? It's difficult to believe it could happen the way Boston is hitting and pitching, but I thought after the 19-8 drubbing that the Red Sox had nothing left. If there is a curse, this would be the cruelest incarnation of all.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Renteria will lead off for the Cardinals.

Update: Foulke is on for Boston. And to add insult to injury, it's raining.

Update: A weak swing and Renteria strikes out. Larry Walker up.

Update: Larry Walker connects for a homer to center field. Is it too little too late?

Update: Rolen strikes out looking! The Red Sox win!
Update: Pujols hits the ball a long way, but it comes down in Manny's glove just shy of the warning track. It's up to Rolen to keep the game alive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Eight Done
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It doesn't matter if it's Pedro or Timlin. The Cards go down in order once again in the 8th. They'll have the 9th spot leading off in the 9th.

Update: Sorry, top of the order is due up in the 9th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Pedro's Done
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Kevin Millar pinch hits for Pedro in the 8th. He allows just three hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 6. 97 pitches, 59 for strikes. He got off to a rough start, but some good luck (and bad baserunning) got Pedro out of trouble unscathed. After than, he was unhittable.

Jim Storer reports that the crowd is very quiet at Busch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Good Pitching
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Pedro strikes out Pujols to end the bottom of the 6th. That's 11 in a row retired by Martinez. Pedro had thrown 64 pitches through four. He's thrown 19 over the last two innings. It looks like Pedro will give the bullpen a nice break as well tonight.

The Cardinals had him on the ropes early tonight, but failed to deliver the knockout punch. Martinez gave them two chances tonight; you can't hope for more than that vs. Pedro.

Update: Pedro gets the side again in the 7th. The Cardinals heart of the order has stopped beating, and the rest of the lineup can't restart the offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Pitching
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Calero walks Pedro with 1 out in the 6th. There's not excuse for that. Pedro can't swing; just throw the ball somewhere over the plate. With the blunders they've made tonight, the Cardinals really don't deserve to win this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Another Short Outing?
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Suppan is in trouble in the fifth. He's given up a double to Damon and a single to Cabrera. He's facing the middle of the order with none out. The Cardinals have not had a starter get out of the fifth yet in this series.

Update: Manny singles with two strikes throught the short stop hole. It's 3-0 Red Sox, and Suppan will face Ortiz.

Update: Ortiz flies out to center. One out.

Update: Varitek hits into a force out. 1st and 3rd with 2 out for Mueller.

Update: Mueller delivers another hit to add another run to the Boston total. It's 4-0 in the 4th, and that's it for Suppan. Once again, the Cardinals starter can't get out of the fifth.

Suppan leaves after throwing 89 pitches, 56 for strikes, a good ratio. But the Red Sox are just wearing down these starters, forcing La Russa into his pen early for the third straight game. Down four runs to Pedro is a tough position for any team, but when you could have scored two more runs, it must hurt even more.

Update: Reyes gets St. Louis out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Martinez Magic
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An easy fourth for Pedro. He gets Rolen, Edmonds and Sanders on a ground out, fly out and strikeout. Talk about diversity! Looks like he may be finding his groove.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Power Ball
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The Red Sox don't worry about base running mistakes. Mueller doubles, and Nixon hits a single to deep right to drive Bill in. Hit the ball far enough, and it's easy to score. It's 2-0 Red Sox in the fourth.

Update: With runners on base, Pedro is swinging the bat! It's 0-2.

Update: Pedro strikes out looking anyway. But he has a 2-0 lead as he'll take the mound for the 4th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Suppan Can Hit
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Pedro didn't get the bat off his shoulder during his plate appearance. Suppan gets wood on the ball, fouling off a couple of pitches before ground one slowly down the third-base line for a single. Suppan makes Pedro look bad.

Update: Renteria hits one over Nixon's head for a double. Nixon also hits a puddle and slides on his back, but Suppan does not score.

Now Walker grounds to first, and Suppan makes the 2nd Cardinals baserunning blunder of the game. He should have scored easily on the grounder, but he stops halfway and gets caught retreating to third. The Red Sox were giving the run away with the infield back. I thought NL teams knew how to run the bases!

Update: Pedro gets Pujols to end the inning. Pedro's minnie-me lucky charm must be in the stadium tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Man On for Manny
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Big mistake by Suppan. With two strikes on Cabrera, he loses him with a walk. It's best to keep the bases empty for Manny.

Update: Manny flies to right. It works out well for the Cardinals. Ortiz will be up with none on in the 4th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Easy Second
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Jeff Suppan gets the side 1-2-3 in the 2nd. He's throwing well; 23 of his 36 pitches have been for strikes.

Update: Pedro gets the 6-7-8 hitters in order as well. He'll lead off the 2nd. Pedro is about even with balls and strikes. He's thrown 37 pitches, 19 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Walk-er
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Pedro issues his first walk of the night to the 2nd batter he faces, Larry Walker. Not a good person to put on base with the fire power coming up behind him.

Update: Pujols reaches on a grounder that Mueller could only knock down. Nettles would have had him. :-)

Update: Pedro walks Rolen to load the bases. Again, the number of walks Pedro has been giving up in the post season indicates something's wrong. He's pitched more innings this season than he has in a long time. I think he worn out.

Update: Bad baserunning gets Pedro off the hook. Walker might have beaten that throw 10 years ago, but the ball was just too shallow. A golden opportunity lost by the Cards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Game 3
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Suppan starts the game by getting ahead of Damon 0-2, and eventually gets him to line to right. My good friend Jim Storer is at the game and with any luck I'll get an in-game report from him.

Update: Suppan had been working low to Manny, but he gets one up in the strikezone and Manny hammers it into the left field stands. It's 1-0 Boston. It's Manny's first extra-base hit of the World Series. He's had 19 hits in the post season but only 5 for extra bases.

Update: Ortiz gets a hit, but there's no other damage in the first. Pedro faces the Cardinals next.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Boo Who?
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The afternoon version of Baseball Tonight had an interview with Boo Ferriss of the 1946 Red Sox, who threw a shutout in the 1946 World Series. I have a couple of questions about Mr. Ferriss:


  1. Is Halloween his favorite holiday?

  2. When he did something good, did the crowd say, "Booooooooo?"


Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Home Field Advantage
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Tim Lambert takes a very statistical look at what it means to have home field advantage in the World Series. He even has an interactive calcualator! Excellent job, Tim!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:33 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The weather doesn't look too good for game 3 tonight in St. Louis. You can follow the radar here. But, if things dry out, Pedro Martinez will take the mound to face Jeff Suppan.

Suppan, like all the Cardinals starters, is an okay pitcher who strikes out just enough batters and walks few. Suppan has always had a tendancy to give up the long ball. He had a very interesting home/road split during the regular season. Despite giving up fewer HR, fewer walks and striking out more batters, Suppan's ERA was 1.2 runs higher in Busch. He allowed 40 more hits at home than on the road. Was it just his defense playing poorly behind him in those games? He did give up many more doubles at home, so it could be the long hits just stayed in the park in St. Louis. The Red Sox are good at getting the long hit; this should be a good matchup for the Sox.

Edward Cossette is giddy about Pedro pitching tonight.


I just had another ohmygaw thought: PEDRO MARTINEZ IS PITCHING IN HIS FIRST WORLD SERIES EVER. FOR THE BOSTON RED SOX. WHO ARE UP 2-0. IN THE WORLD SERIES!

The problem is that Pedro hasn't pitched like Pedro for a while. He's not the shut'em down lights out Pedro of 1998-2003. He's walked 11 in 20 post-season innings this year. He's given up 20 hits. He still strikes out batters, with 20 of those as well. He's still very good, but he's not so good that he's the automatic win anymore. And so people may be getting ahead of themselves when they start writing as if this is going to be Pedro's last game in a Red Sox uniform:

One game to out-Curt Curt. One game to say goodbye. One game to say, "Pay me." One game to show off for his countrymen watching on TV down in the Dominican. One game to have people back home chanting "Pe-dro!" in the living rooms and bars of New England. One game to remind everyone that he still can pitch as well as anyone in the world. One game to put the Boston Red Sox up, 3-0.

If this post season has proved anything, it's that anything is possible.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Out of Control
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Fine analysis in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch of the series so far. The Cardinals pitchers are walking too many batters.


The Cardinals walked 14 and hit three batters while losing twice in Boston. Only three times all season did they walk as many in consecutive games, and never did they walk as many as six in back-to-back starts.

"That was so much against what Dunc preaches and what we've been executing all year long," La Russa said. "I thought we pitched backward. We walked guys with nobody on, then got behind and threw balls down the middle. That's a formula for some crooked numbers."

The Cardinals were 88-33 in the regular season when they walked three or fewer, 17-24 when they free-passed four or more. They weren't the league's most overpowering staff, a fact that allowed them to stay below the radar despite barely falling short of the lowest ERA in either league. But what the Cardinals did was maximize a gilded defense with the game's best ground ball-to-fly ball ratio while refusing to provide easy openings for large innings.


Part of the Cardinals pitching woes is really the Boston offense:

Of the possible explanations for the control fritz - stage fright, slick baseballs, fatigue, enforcement of a tight strike zone or a patient Red Sox lineup - the Cardinals give most of the credit to their selective opponents.

"I don't think anybody's tired except for maybe Matt, who pitched a day short," La Russa said Monday, the day after Morris started on three days' rest for the first time in his career. "I just don't think that we executed when we had to. I also think they did a good job being aggressive in the strike zone. It's a good way to hit. It's the way we hit. It's the kind of at-bats we have.

"We're not some big, free-swinging club. We're as good with two strikes as anybody. I see a lot of them in us and us in them.


Posted by StatsGuru at 06:55 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 25, 2004
Happy Birthday!
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It's Pedro Martinez's birthday. We'll see if the 33 year old will celebrate with a win tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
Orioles Warehouse
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Just came across this Orioles blog, Orioles Warehouse. Check out the excellent post on Doc Rodgers dissmissal as director of minor-league operations.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM | Blogs | TrackBack (0)
Sunday Night Recap
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Brian Gunn at Redbird Nation continues to do his usual fine job of covering the Cardinals. His wrap-up of last night's game is excellent. He nails my exact feelings about Schilling.

I've always had mixed feelings about Schilling. Sometimes I think he's a pompous ass; sometimes I think he's about the most admirable superstar in all of baseball. And sometimes the two opinions co-exist uncomfortably in my mind. Like that open letter he sent out after 9/11 -- one of the more heartfelt things I've ever heard from an athlete. And yet, I'm embarrassed to admit, a small part of me thought it was nothing more than Schilling grandstanding again. And then there was the time Schilling showed up at the memorial service for Darryl Kile in St. Louis. Mind you, Schill didn't really know Kile. They'd been teammates back in '91, but that was it. Yet Schilling flew to St. Louis anyway, because he considers everyone in baseball his brother, and he wanted to pay his respects in person. 99% of me thought you couldn't find a classier move in all of sports. 1% of me thought Schilling just wanted to show the world what a great guy he was.

But in the end it's the better part of Schilling's nature that wins out for me. For one simple reason: because whether he's altruistic or self-absorbed, whether he's authentic or simply posturing, he always comes across to me as a full-blooded human being, clearly a well-rounded poerson with a life outside of baseball. That's rare in sports, and great for the game.

I would not be surprised to see Schilling go into politics once his baseball career is over.

Brian also makes a point about Morris that struck me last night as I listened to McCarver explain that Matt can't throw the curve ball from the stretch.

Here's something I want to bring up in regard to Morris... First of all, you all know that he's Jeckyll-and-Hyde from game to game, and you probably also know that he's Jeckyll-and-Hyde with runners on and without. The numbers are eloquent:

                             AVG   OBP   SLG
Morris with Bases Empty     .245  .295  .373
Morris with Runners On      .301  .342  .591

The reason for the split is fairly obvious -- Morris sucks from the stretch. When he's not operating off the full windup, he can't generate enough lower-body push to get any action on his curveball.

So here's my question: shouldn't there be occasions when Morris simply pitches from the full windup even with runners on base? I'm not just talking about bases loaded/two outs. I'm talking about tonight, with Manny on second and Ortiz on first. Are they going to steal in that situation? No. Is there any huge risk by allowing the runners a big jump? No, not really. So why not just go to the full windup? Or what about in the 4th, with Millar on first and two outs? Millar stole only one base all year. He's not gonna go in that situation. And yet, pitching from the stretch, Morris gave up back-to-back doubles to give the Sox a 4-1 lead. I say if the guy's that bad with runners on, just let him pitch to his strengths and suffer the side effects.

There is this whole mindset in baseball that runners have to be held and pitchers have to do everything in their power to cut down on the running game. As in game 5 of the ALCS, worrying about the runner can do more damage than just letting him steal. If a slow runner is on first, why hold? Why pitch from the stretch? Even if the runner steals, if you get the batter, the damage will be minimal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | World Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
October 24, 2004
Pepper Spray Death
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A medical blogger sent me a link to a post of his on the death of the young woman during the celebrations following the Red Sox victory in the ALCS. His theme is that a pepper spray pellet to the eye should not be deadly. He wants to know why she died, and why the press hasn't investigated this more thoroughly.

I'm not an expert on the subject. I'd be interested in hearing from others who might be.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:57 PM | Deaths | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Win, Lead 2-0
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Matheny grounds out to short to end the game.

The Red Sox have done an excellent job of shutting down the hear of the Cardinals order. Last night, Walker had the hits; Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen were quiet. Today, Pujols had the hits, and the whole rest of the team was quiet.

If Schilling keeps pitching like this, having your ankle stitched may become common practice for all starters. :-)

The Cardinals pitchers continue to issue free passes, putting 8 on via the walk or hit by pitch.

The series shifts to St. Louis on Tuesday. The Cardinals have yet to lose at home this post season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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The Cardinals have three outs to score four runs. The 6-8 hitters are up.

Update: After a long AB, Reggie Sanders strikes out trying to check his swing.

Update: Womack flies out to right. Matheny is batting. Where's the pinch hitter? Has La Russa given up on this game?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Down Four
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With men on first and third and one out, Rolen hits a sacrifice fly to center to make the score 6-2. But it's one less the out the Cardinals have to work with. Outs are the currency of baseball and St. Louis is nearly broke in this game.

Update: Foulke comes in and strikes out Edmonds. The Red Sox are three outs away from going up 2-0 in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Marquis Game
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Jason Marquis enters the game in the 7th. I'm a bit surprised by this, although it may just be for an inning to get him some work before his Wednesday start. With the use of Eldred, and only using King for one batter, it's almost as if La Russa is saving his main relievers for St. Louis.

Edmonds makes a great catch in centerfield to get the first out of the inning. It was one of those classic over the shoulder plays heading toward the wall that's remeniscient of Willie Mays.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Bleacher Interview
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Fox just interviewed a 79-year-old woman who is a 40 year season ticket holder. I think she knows more about the game than all the broadcasters in the park combined. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Six For Schilling
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Another great outing for Curt Schilling. The Cardinals, like the Yankees, did nothing to try to make him move off the mound. The Cards did try to work the counts early, but as the game went on and Schilling threw strikes, the Card appears to abandon that strategy. Schilling threw 94 pitches; not that unusual for six innings.

Major kudos to Curt and his surgeon. I'm impressed by the idea of the surgery, and I'm even more impressed with Schilling's ability to throw through the pain. It's the stuff of which legends are made.

Update: One reason they may not have bunted against Schilling is that early on they seemed to be getting hard hit balls against him. Some were caught; that's just bad luck. It could be the Cardinals figured they had Schilling measured; they didn't count on him getting stronger.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Random Thought
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I want to put Orlando Cabrera's helmet through the dishwasher.

Update: Cabrera and his dirty helmet drives a single off the wall in left to plate two more runs. It's 6-1 Boston in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Manny's helmet can use the pot-scrubber cycle as well. :-)

Update: A pop single by Manny Ramirez leads to Ray King coming in to face David Ortiz.

Update: King gets Ortiz swinging. It looks like Schilling is out of the game, but the Cardinals have their work cut out for them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Hands of Stone
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Bill Mueller makes his 2nd error of the night. It seems like if there are two outs, the ball is hit to Mueller tonight. St. Louis has a man on first with two out for Edmonds.

Update: Bellhorn gets a grounder and boots it. It's hard to believe the Red Sox are winning with all these errors.

Update: Sanders hits a hard grounder to Mueller, who fields it and beats Rolen to the bag for the third out. I guess you have to hit it real hard at Bill for him to make the play. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Morris Removed
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Matt Morris gets Manny Ramirez to fly out, but he won't be allowed to pitch to David Ortiz. Cal Eldred is on to try to get Popi.

Morris gives up at least 4 runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Sox didn't homer off him, but they did have a couple of long hits to drive in the four runs.

Update: Eldred hits Varitek, but gets out of the inning. The Cardinals have only allowed four hits, but unlike the Red Sox they have put six runners on via the walk or hit batter. Schilling has added only one extra base runner via the free pass.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Five and Alive
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Schilling is now through five innings, and appears to be getting stronger. The Cardinals are not trying to use the bunt to make Schilling move, and he's starting to strike out batters.

If the Red Sox win the Series, they should give the throphy to the doctor who stitched up Schilling.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Threat in the Fourth
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Mueller gets his 2nd hit of the night, and double into the right field corner. That puts runners at 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs for Bellhorn.

Update: Bellhorn delivers a double off the wall in centerfield. The Red Sox lead 4-1. I guess the Boston fans aren't yelling for Pokey anymore. I always wondered what they saw in Pokey.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Double Trouble
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Albert Pujols gets the double-double, hitting his 2nd two bagger down the line in left to lead off the fourth.

Update: Rolen flies out to shallow right, but he has to dive and Pujols tags up and goes to third.

Update: Schilling gets a big strikeout of Edmonds. His splitter seems to be working just fine.

Update: Schilling get Sanders to ground to third, but the usual sure-handed Mueller muffs the ball, and the Cardinals score an unearned run. That's all they get, however, as Womack grounds to 2nd to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Strong Third
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The third is Schilling's strongest so far. He gets the side in order, and strikes out Walker for the third out. It's the first inning where the Cardinals didn't work him hard, either. They still haven't tried to but against Schilling.

Update: Morris has an equally strong inning, getting two grounders and a strikeout of Manny. On to the fourth, with the score 2-0 in favor of Boston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Bad Baserunning
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Reggie Sanders costs the Cardinals a base when he thought he missed 2nd on a hit and run. Fox has a microphone in the base, and you can hear his foot hit the base as he rounds 2nd. Nonetheless, the Cardinals have runners at 1st and 2nd with one out.

One thing Sanders did well was step out on Schilling just as Curt was about to go into his motion, causing Schilling to stop in mid windup.

The Cardinals run into bad luck though, as Sanders runs when Matheny lines out to third. Mueller just has to tag Reggie for the unassisted double play. It's the 2nd time in two innings that the turn at bat ends with a hard liner right at the third baseman.

Schilling hasn't struck anyone out yet. As it was in game 6, he's not the real Schilling, but he's throwing strikes and has had good luck so far.

Update: Fox now is saying that it looks like the microphone picked up Sanders hitting the dirt near the base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Walk the Middle
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Morris, after getting two ground outs, pitches carefully to Ramirez and Ortiz and uses the walk to put men on 1st and 2nd for Varitek.

Update: Oh those base on balls! Varitek clears the bases with a triple to the triangle in center that just misses being a HR. The Red Sox take a 2-0 lead.

Update: I thought it was a double, but it was a triple. Varitek rips his pants on the slide into third. I hope Fox doesn't get fined by the FCC for indecency!

Update: Nixon grounds out to end the inning. Morris works very hard, however, throwing over 30 pitches.

Morris walks Millar; he may not get out of the first at this rate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Rolen, Rolen, Rolen
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What a great play by Scott Rolen. He back-hands Damon's roller, throws off balance, gets a lot of mustard on the ball and the throw easily beats Damon to the bag. I'm not sure Greg Nettles could have made that play! :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Game 2
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Game 2 is underway. Schilling starts Renteria with a strike. Renteria has taken three pitches in a row and he's ahead 2-1 in the count.

Update: Renteria is having a great AB. Unlike Jeter, who in game 6 flew out on the first pitch, Renteria has run the count full and has fouled off a number of pitches. He's doing a great job of making Schilling work early and show his pitches.

Update: Renteria grounds out to short. He made Schilling throw 12 pitches, however.

Update: For compairson, Schilling only threw 11 pitches in the 1st inning of game 6.

Update: With two out, Pujols gets a double off Schilling.

Update: Rolen gets all of it, but hits a liner straight at Mueller for the third out.

It was a good inning both for the Cardinals and for Schilling. Schilling showed he has command of his pitches and can throw strikes. The Cardinals made him work, throwing 24 pitches. Pujols and Rolen also hit the ball solidly, although Rolen's went for an out. A nice beginning for both clubs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Slipping
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I was just watching the end of the Patriots' game and saw dizzle coming down. Here in western Massachusetts, the sky is cloudy but it's dry. It seems the east is wet tonight, however.

This will make it slippery for Schilling, even more reason for the Cardinals to try to make him move off the mound as much as possible. Again, the Yankees didn't take advantage of these conditions in game 6 of the ALCS; I don't expect the Cardinals to make the same mistake.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:20 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Tonight is going to be a very interesting game. Matt Morris takes the mound for St. Louis vs. Curt "Frankenstein" Schilling. Former Red Sox great and dentist Jim Lonborg comments at ESPN.com about the surgery Schilling underwent:


"Watching Curt in that game a few days ago, I think that was one of the gutsiest performances I've ever seen,'' Lonborg said. "I don't know as a pitcher that I would be able to stay in the kind of groove that he's been able to maintain. But he's probably been able to identify his pitching motion and the components of it to the point where he knows exactly what he has to do to make good deliveries. He's really been able to focus on that.

"It's such a feather in Dr. Morgan's cap to be able to come up with that, to have the imagination to remedy the problem with that tendon that was flopping around down there. It's just absolutely phenomenal that a few sutures could create such a wonderful feeling for Curt to be able to pitch. It's the simplest of procedures, but it's also very innovative. Dr. Morgan just got a great brainstorm and he went with it.''


One thing working against Schilling tonight, however, is the element of surprise. Had the Yankees known Curt had undergone surgery, they might have approached him differently (actually, they didn't have any approach, so maybe I'm wrong there). It was clear in the bottom of the 4th of game 6 that Schilling could only run in pain, as he had to cover 1st twice. While we speculated before game 6 about the Yankees bunting on Schilling, we now know it would have been a pretty good strategy. I could see Renteria, Taguchi, Womack (or whoever plays 2nd) and Sanders all using this against Curt. Unlike the Yankees, the Cardinals know that Curt can't strike them out. They know his range is limited. I suspect La Russa will devise a strategy to exploit those weaknesses.

The Red Sox batters hope to play long ball again tonight. When you look at Matt Morris' numbers for this season, the one number that jumps off the page is his HR allowed. His thirty five allowed in the regular season was tied with Greg Maddux for 2nd most in the NL. He's allowed 5 in the post season in only 17 IP.

It's also interesting that Morris is starting game 2, which means he's likely to start game 6, both in Fenway. Morris had an ERA that was nearly 2.5 points higher on the road.

My bet is that Boston as another good run scoring night. The question is will Schilling's ankle hold up long enough to bury the Cardinals?

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 AM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Win
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That was a wild one. Foulke blew the save but won the game. As Bill James once said, that's a lot better than losing it.

It was not a pitcher's night. The two teams combined for 24 hits and 14 walks. One positive for Boston was that they controled Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds; only Walker really hit them. The bad news is that the rest of the Cardinals offense found their bats.

Both teams forced the other pitching staff to throw a lot of pitches. Williams and Haren combined for 139 pitches in six innings. Wakefield and Arroyo were close, throwing 128 in their six innings. With pitch counts like that, the bullpens are going to get a lot of work in this series.

A big win for Boston, but these teams are very evenly matched. Lots more runs to come.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 AM | World Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 9th
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Reggie Sanders strikes out to start the 9th inning.

Update: Marlon Anderson hits a ground-rule double on a 3-2 pitch to bring the tying run to the plate in the person of Yadier Molina.

Update: Molina pops out. Roger Cedeno will try to keep the Cardinals inning alive.

Update: Cendo strikes out to end the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 AM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
October 23, 2004
Pesky Pole
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Mark Bellhorn hits the foul pole again, this time with a runner on, and the Red Sox take an 11-9 lead in the bottom of the 8th. With Julian Tavarez pitching, the Cardinals are surrounding the dugout phone. :-)

Update: That's all the Red Sox get. The Cardinals need two to tie again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Big Bottom
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The eight-nine slots get on for the Cardinals in the eighth, bringing Keith Foulke into the game with 1 out.

Update: Renteria singles in the hole, and pinch runner Marquis somehow scores. He had stumbled going to second on the previous hit, then scores after stopping at third and despite a good throw to Varitek. Good result, bad process. I doubt we'll see Marquis pinch run again.

Update: Walker pops to left and Manny drops the ball! He was given an error on a throw to the plate on the previous play, and now this error ties the game. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, and they're walking Pujols to face Rolen.

Update: Rolen pops out. Foulke faces Edmonds.

Update: Foulke gets Edmonds looking. Foulke gets the blown save, but hardly deserves it. Manny deserves the BS here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Another Single
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Manny Ramirez singles in the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 7th. Manny is three for five with two RBI tonight. He has 12 hits since the start of the LCS, 11 for singles. Manny's doing a great job of getting on base, but he's not supplying the usual power. Still getting on base is more important, and he's still helping the Red Sox win.

Update: With the infield in, Tony Womack gets hit when David Ortiz's grounder takes a high hop right into Tony's collar bone. He has looked in pain all night, and now his breast bone hurts as much as his back, and he's coming out of the game. Marlon Anderson is on to play 2nd.

The Red Sox get another run on the play to extend the lead to 2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Closing In
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Taguchi and Renteria combine on a single, error and double to bring the Cardinals within one. Walker follows with a double to tie the game in the 6th, all with 2 out. Walker's hit was down the right field line, and I was hoping he'd go for three.

Update: Pujols strikes out to end the inning. While the Red Sox can't get Walker out, Pujols has only reached when he was hit by a pitch. It's a new ball game, however, with the score tied at 7. It's also nice to see the bottom of the Cardinals order doing some damage. Four of the six RBI and four of the seven runs have come outside the big four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 PM | TrackBack (0)
Wild Game
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Haren walks the first two batters of the fourth, then gets three fly balls to get out of the inning. It's only the 3rd half inning of the 8 played that's been scoreless.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Wakefied Walks
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Wakefield walks Edmonds and Sanders to start the fourth. We'll see if Womack is willing to take some pitches.

Update: Womack walks. The soft underbelly of the Cardinals lineup is at bat now. Can the 8-9 hitters deliver?

Update: Matheny has a good AB and files to shallow right. Edmonds scores as Millar cuts the ball off, but Millar makes an error trying to get Sanders at third, throwing the ball into the dugout. That scores another run and puts Womack at third. Womack scores on a Taguchi ground out.

The 8-9 hitters make outs, but at least they put the ball in play and with the help of a Red Sox mistake, get all three runners home. It's 7-5 in the fourth.

Wakefield walks Renteria to make Walker the tying run at the plate. Francona has seen enough, and Bronson Arroyo is coming in to try to end the inning.

Update: Larry Walker gets a single to make the situation 1st and 3rd with two out and Pujols at the plate. Walker just needs a triple for the cycle.

Update: Pujols grounds out. It's not a night for the pitchers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Damon Delivers
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The Red Sox load the bases again, and Johnny Damon delivers a single to plate one more run. The Red Sox have chased Woody Williams from the game in the bottom of the third with the score 5-2. Woody gave up 8 hits and 3 walks in addition to hitting a batter. That's 12 of 19 batters reaching base.

Update: Haren doesn't do much better as Cabrera singles in one more to make the score 6-2. Bases still loaded for Manny.

Update: Manny hits into a fielder's choice to short to make the score 7-2. Who would have thought that the Red Sox would be doing this well with Manny hitting almost all singles since the start of the ALCS?

Update: Haren does a good job of allowing Williams' runs without giving up any of his own. It's 7-2 Boston after three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Chipping Away
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Larry Walker takes Wakefield down the right field line again, this time crushing the ball into the right field stands. He now has half a cycle in the third inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Williams Working
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Woody Williams is getting a workout from the Red Sox batters. He's faced 14 batters in two innings and has thrown 47 pitches. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals have bullpen action already.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Loving the Bunt
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I don't understand La Russa love of the bunt in the post season. Womack is one of the Cardinals better hitters. Why take the bat out of his hand just to advance runners? The two hitters coming up behind him aren't very good. I'd rather see Tony try to get a hit than waste an out.

Matheny hits a sac fly to drive in a run. We'll see what So-So can do.

Update: Taguchi strikes out. The Cardinals play for 1 run and get it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Popi Pops
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David Ortiz continues to be everyone's daddy, as he hits a three run home run in the bottom of the first to give the Sox a 3-0 lead. The Red Sox are taking the ball deep on Williams. Even Ramirez's out required a great catch by Larry Walker.

Also, I like the way the Red Sox are tagging and 2nd to 3rd on deep fly balls. Millar just did that and scores on Mueller's single. It's 4-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Damon Double
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Johnny Damon gets the first hit for the Red Sox. Like Walker, it was a double. Unlike Walker, he went the opposite way, down the left field line.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Walker Hits
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Larry Walker gets the first hit of the World Series, a double into the right field corner off Wakefield.

Update: A good inning by Wakefield. He had a strikeout and two pop outs around the double by Walker. Looks like the knuckle ball is dancing tonight, although I haven't see Mirabelli have a problem catching the ball yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Tonight's Lineups
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Looks like the Cardinals are using the designated hitter to improve their defense. So Taguchi is in left field for the Red Birds, while Reggie Sanders moves to DH.

The Red Sox have Cabrera batting 2nd and Bellhorn batting 9th. Cabrera has a better BA vs. Williams, but both players have very small samples against Woody. Given Woody's success against lefties, however, it might be a good move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Woody Williams faces Tim Wakefield tonight in game 1 of the World Series. (By the way, this is at least the third time this week we've had a 3-initial match. We had Mike Mussina vs. Pedro Martinez and Matt Morris vs. Pete Munro in the LCS). Not exactly Bob Gibson vs. Jose Santiago, but it's an interesting matchup.

Woody Williams had an excellent season vs. left-handed batters. With the Red Sox having as many as six lefties in the lineup (3 lefties, 3 switch hitters) this could work as an advantage to Williams. On the negative side, Williams' ERA goes up close to 2 points on the road.

Williams, having spent some time in the AL, has an interesting line vs. Manny Ramirez. Manny is 3 for 23 against Woody with double and 2 HR. So when Ramiez hits Williams, he hits him hard.

Wakefield (and you can say this for Arroyo and Lowe) is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you are going to get. When the knuckler is dancing, no he's as tough a pitcher to hit as there is. If the pitch isn't working, however, the Cardinals have plenty of fire power to pound the slow, straight stuff. Tim hasn't had a great post-season so far. He's been in three games, and in two of them, the Yankees score easily. This start is based on his performance Monday, where he went 3 innings, striking out 4 and giving up 0 runs. His ERA for the post season, however, stands at 8.59.

Two Cardinals have extensive experience against Wakefield. Edmonds has hit him well, collecting 17 hits in 37 AB against Tim, striking out only twice. Matheny, on the other hand, is 3 for 24 against the knuckler. I suspect the other Cardinals will be asking Edmonds about his approach versus Wakefield. :-)

I might add, this is the first World Series I'll see in High Definition. So far, the broadcasts have been spectacular! Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)
Blast Me Off, Scotty
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I hope they can get the price lower so I can go, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Other | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2004
Little Red Preview
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The Cardinals and Red Sox are about to meet for the third time in World Series history. The Cardinals beat the Red Sox in seven games in 1946, scoring the winning run in the bottom of the 8th inning of game 7. In 1967, the Cardinals again won in 7 games, pounding the Sox 7-2 in the finale, including a HR by Bob Gibson. The Red Sox had not lost a World Series before 1946, and haven't won one since in four tries. It's fitting that the Red Sox should be playing the Cardinals, since the Red Birds are the Yankees of the National League, having won more World Series than any other NL team (9).

Offensively, the two teams each led their respective leagues in runs per game.

CardinalsRed Sox
2004 BattingValueLeague RankValueLeague Rank
Runs/Game5.28Highest5.86Highest
OBA3.444th Highest.360Highest
Slugging Pct..460Highest.472Highest

Both teams are offensive power houses. The Red Sox did a better job relative to their league of getting on base, but both team hit for tremendous power. Looking at the Red Sox aggregate batting order, the first 8 slots were all above league average in OBA in 2004. So there's only 1 easy out in the order (much of that was Pokey Reese; Cabrera is better but still not league average). The Cardinals are above league average in OBA 1-5, but not close 6-9. So the Red Sox will have a tougher lineup to get through 1-9.

The Cardinals strength, as I've said before, is that their offense is concentrated in four outstanding players. Those four (Pujols, Walker, Edmonds and Rolen) are better than any big four in the majors, but that's it. You can see it in the LCS stats, compared to the Red Sox big four of Ortiz, Ramirez, Damon and Millar:

Big FourCardinalsRed Sox
Runs/Team Runs24/3418/41
RBI/Team RBI27/3320/40

There's no one to pick up the Cardinals if the big four slump. On the other hand, the Red Sox won game six vs. NY on the strength of a 4-run inning from the bottom of their order. The edge on offense goes to the Red Sox for depth; the ability of 8 of their 9 slots to get on base.

Both team also had excellent years from the mound.

CardinalsRed Sox
2004 PitchingValueLeague RankValueLeague Rank
ERA3.752nd Lowest4.183rd Lowest
Strikeouts104110th Highest11322nd Highest
Walks4402nd Lowest4473rd Lowest
Home Runs1697th Lowest159Tied-Lowest

The Cardinals were 2nd in ERA by .01, but actually led the NL in fewest runs allowed per game. Both of these are great pitching staffs. The way I see it, the Red Sox have two advantages:

  1. They strike out a lot of batters (they had more strikeouts than the Cardinals despite facing very few pitchers at the plate).
  2. They don't allow many HR (they allowed fewer HR than the Cardinals despite facing very few pitchers at the plate).

One big story that I see will be who wins the contest of hitting HR between the Red Sox pitchers and the Cardinals hitters. If the Boston staff is able to keep the ball in the park, they'll take away St. Louis' biggest offensive weapon.

The Sox and the Cards staffs are the mirrors of their offenses, however. The Red Sox have two great pitchers in Martinez and Schilling. The Cardinals have four starters who are indistinguishable from each other. The Cardinals also have a better and deeper bullpen. The Cardinals overall have better depth (although this is not as extreme a difference as it is for the offenses).

And the big wild card is Schilling's ankle. Right now, it looks like they are going to stitch it up again before his next two starts. How well it holds together again is a mystery, especially if the Cardinals (unlike the Yankees), force Schilling to throw a lot of pitches and move off the mound often. I give a slight edge to the Cardinals staff on this one, basically because Schilling's condition is such an unknown.

Defensively, the Cardinals are the better fielding club. They had a DER of .711, tied for best in the NL. The Red Sox were very good also, with a .695 DER, 4th in the AL. The Red Sox pitcher, striking out more batters, could afford a more porous defense.

As for the intangibles, I just don't know. They're too intangible. :-)

So I like the Red Sox offense because it doesn't give the Cardinals pitchers a break. I like the Red Sox pitching if Schilling can push off, the Cardinals otherwise. I can't wait to see Pujols hitting in Fenway. I'm very curious as to how La Russa will try to exploit Schilling's injury. I'm interested in seeing if Lowe pitches well under pressure again. The Ray King/David Ortiz matchups should be fun. I conditionally like the Red Sox to win this series, but only by a hair.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1)
Curses
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My good friend and Canadian ex-pat Dan Wechsler writes:


Care to include a link to this? I especially like the last part about ex-Cubs.

Here's the part about the Cubs.

And we must warn you of another, less familiar mystical force: the ex-Cub factor. The idea is that the Chicago Cubs are so poisoned by failure that the team with more ex-Cubs loses the Series. In the playoffs, the Yankees had the most ex-Cubs: six. St. Louis had three; Houston only one. Boston, with two ex-Cubs, may be safe because the hex seems to require a minimum of three. It has been broken only twice since 1945, by the 1960 Pirates and the 2001 Diamondbacks. Each time, the Yankees lost in Game 7, in the bottom of the ninth.

I guess this was written before the Cardinals won last night.

So Dan (and any other Canadians reading this), which ex-Expo are you rooting for? Larry Walker or Pedro Martinez?

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:14 PM | Superstitions | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Victory
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Brian at Redbird Nation sums up the Cardinals victory. I really like the title, Hoosier Daddy.

He has plenty of praise for Jeff Suppan:


Jeff Suppan outdueled Roger Clemens tonight. You know that, I know that, but I don't care -- I'm gonna say it again because I like the way it rolls off the tongue: Jeff. Suppan. Outdueled. Roger. Clemens.

I never thought I'd be able to write that after 4 innings. Suppan was only down a run, but he was juggling chainsaws from the get-go -- there was the lead-off homer by Bidge, the long drive by Ausmus, the HBP leading off the top of the 4th. Meanwhile, Rocket was buzzsawing through our lineup. He wasn't vintage-era Roger Clemens, but he was hitting his spots with a sizzling, mid-90's fastball. I thought the 'Stros were going to be able to ride that all the way into Lidge Time.

But just as he did in Game 4 against the Dodgers and Game 3 against the Astros, Suppan got stronger as the game wore on. Against L.A. he set down the last 14 guys he faced; on Saturday he set down the last 10 he faced; and tonight it was the final 9. In his three starts this series he's given up only 10 hits (that's cumulative) and has held opponents to a .152 batting average.

Oh, and he also drove in the first Cardinals' run with a lovely suicide squeeze. Not bad, Mr. Soup Can.


Now we need to know if he can out-duel Schilling in game 3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
A-Rod is Not the Problem
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I've seen this in two places now, the idea that A-Rod brings defeat with him. First it was at Soxaholix (warning, obsenity laced (but funny) rant). The 2nd is at Let's Fly Under the Bridge. I'll fisk the 2nd, since this tries to be a kid friendly blog:


Alex Rodriguez, surrounded by potential Hall of Famers; Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, and Ken Griffey Jr., the Mariners fail to reach a World Series.

How about this: Long time superstars Johnson, Martinez and Griffey are given the best hitting shortstop of this generation to compliment their talents and still can't win a World Series. And since reaching the World Series is the goal here, I don't remember the 2001 Mariners doing any better in that regard.

Look, the Mariners were a very good team in the late 1990's. In 2001 they replaced 1 superstar with 2 superstars. Surprise! They got better! They got really good! The problem was the Yankees figured out Ichiro's weakness for the ALCS, and the Mariners sunk. It's just a thought, but A-Rod, who has fewer weaknesses than Ichiro, might have done better.


Free agent Alex Rodriguez, after assuring the Seattle Mariner fans that money wouldn't determine his destination, signs with the Texas Rangers for $250 million. Texas immediately goes to the bottom of the standings.

And they went there with a good offense, which was the whole point of getting A-Rod. In his three years in Texas, the Rangers finished 3rd, 5th and 5th in runs per game, but 14th, 12th and 14th in ERA. This year, they finished 4th in runs per game and 5th in ERA. Surprise! They didn't finish last. I'm sure A-Rod was the only reason their pitching improved so much.

2004: After aborting a trade to the Boston Red Sox, Rodriguez finds a home at third base in Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox accomplish the unheard of; regrouping from a 3-0 deficit, they win the final four games, and take the American League pennant. Now await a National League opponent in the 2004 World Series.
I believe it was the Union that aborted the trade, but that's neither here nor there. How about this: With A-Rod in New York instead of Boston, the Yankees play 12 games better than their Pythagorean projection and finish three games ahead of the Red Sox instead of 8 games back. Had the Red Sox gotten A-Rod, leaving the Yankees with no third baseman of any quality, the Yankees probably don't make the wild card, and this grand comeback doesn't happen.

So sure, go ahead and hang all these losses on Alex Rodriguez and ignore reality. There are plenty of teams who wish they were cursed with A-Rod.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Superstitions | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
October 21, 2004
Red Birds vs. Red Sox
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Vizcaino grounds out to 2nd to end the game. Congratulations to the Cardinals! Nice to see the best team in the league make it to the World Series. It will be an all red championship round.

What a weak ending for the Astros hitters. No patience, no working the pitcher. They had a great run, but they ran out of gas tonight.

The Cardinals big four came through again. All four of them slugged over .500 for the NLCS. I'm glad for Larry Walker, who's had a great long career. I'm happy for Scott Rolen, who was driven out of Philly onto a winner.

The Red Sox have to hope Tony La Russa will give away outs like he did tonight. The Red Sox will be making every effort to get on base with every hitter.

To the World Series!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 9th
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Isringhausen is on to try to close the Astros out of the post season.

Update: Kent goes after the first pitch, and pops out to shallow right toward the foul line. Womack makes the sliding catch.

Ensberg follows and again swings at the first pitch! Why don't these guys take one to see if Izzy is tired!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bees Stung
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A double by Anderson, a sac by Renteria and a broken bat single by Walker makes the score 5-3. Pujols follows with a single. Oswalt can't get an out, too bad La Russa gave one away.

Update: Oswalt gets Rolen to ground into a DP. This could be the Astros last AB of the year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Astros Eighth
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Julian Tavarez comes in to pitch the 8th.

Update: Beltran hits the ball up the middle, but Reneteria is right there. He bobbles the ball but still gets Carlos easily.

Update: Bagwell hits a hard line drive, but Renteria this time is playing in the hole and gloves the ball. Great defensive positioning by the Cardinals.

Update: Berkman hits a ball off Tavarez's broken hand. Renteria charges in front of 2nd to make the play. Tavarez was still on the mound in pain when Fox went to commerical. A great inning by Renteria. He was perfectly positioned on two hard hit balls, and made the big play on the deflection to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Easy 7th
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Oswalt gets the Cardinals in order in the 7th, getting both Womack and Matheny on strikes. The big guns are up for the Astros. Their season may hang on this 1/2 inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Kiko and the Man
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Kiko Calero has a fairly easy 7th, just allowing one runner when he hits Palmeiro. Orlando was in for Clemens, and Oswalt will be coming on in relief. The Astros have Beltran, Bagwell and Berkman coming up in the 8th. That's the inning they have to make some noise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bunting Institute
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La Russa is using or trying to use lots of one-run strategies tonight. That's fine with Suppan or Matheny, but I'm not so sure it's such a good idea with Renteria, especially with the heart of the lineup following. Now, they only have two outs to work with, and there is a good chance one of them might hit a HR, in which case it doesn't matter which base you're occupying.

(There actually is a Bunting Institute at Radcliffe. I used to joke that Phil Rizzuto taught there.)

Update: On a 1-2 count, Pujols delivers a double to drive Cedeno in from third with 2 outs. The game is tied at 2 in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: On the next pitch, Rolen takes the ball out of the park, a shot down the left field line. It's 4-2 Cardinals now. Too many balls in play for Clemens, and it's finally hurt Roger.

Update: Clemens does strike out Edmonds, but it's two batters too late. Now the Astros have to deal with the Cardinals bullpen for three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Six in Six
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Jeff Suppan is not pitching as well as Clemens, but he's only allowed 1 more run. Amazingly, he has six strikeouts through six innings while Clemens only has 1 through 5. We'll see if La Russa leads off with a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Clemens Cruising
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Roger has still allowed only 1 hit and 1 run through 4 innings. He's only thrown 53 pitches, and since the first inning he's thrown 27 strikes and only 8 balls. He still, however, hasn't struck out a batter. The announcers think he's saving his off speed pitches for later in the game. Now that he's almost through the order twice, it will be interesting to see if he starts going to the splitter, and if his strikeouts go up.

Update: With the leadoff man on in the 5th, Clemens gets his first strikeout, getting Reggie Sanders.

Update: Tony Womack gets his 2nd hit of the night, and single to center to put men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. However, with the bottom of the lineup hitting, La Russa has Matheny try to bunt. When he misses, Ausmus picks off the leaning Womack.

I'm not sure of the strategy of bunting with Matheny. He is an easy out, but then you force yourself to lift the starting pitcher. It's moot, as Matheny flies out to center to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Woe-Back
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Tony Womack, bad back and all, gets the first hit of the game for the Red Birds, lining a double and just beating the throw to second.

Update: After moving to third on a ground out, Suppan lays down a bunt for a perfect squeeze play. That's two runs on speed here in the 3rd inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Leg Man
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Carlos Beltran uses his eyes and speed to score a run. He walks, steals 2nd, then on a fly to right center, tags up and tries to go to third. An error on the throw by Edmonds sends the ball into the dugout and Beltran home for a 2-0 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Six Down, No K
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Roger Clemens has retired the first six batters he's faced. However, he's not had a strikeout. Like Suppan not getting grounders, Clemens not striking out batters may be a sign of trouble.

However, in the best game I ever saw Clemens pitch, his 1-hitter against Cleveland, he only struck out five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
I Can Be, Centerfield
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Jim Edmonds just made one of the finest catches you'll ever see. Watching games, one gets a good feel for when players are going to make a catch or not. I didn't think he had a chance at this one. But Edmonds turned on the after burners, dove, and made a spectacular catch going toward the wall. He saved two runs for the Cardinals.

The Astros are getting the ball in the air against Suppan. He tends to get ground balls, so that's not a good sign for Jeff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)
Clemens in Control?
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Roger Clemens retires the Cardinals 1-2-3 in the bottom of the first. However, of the 18 pitches he threw, 9 were balls. I would expect a higher ratio of strikes to balls from Roger. He's gotten a way with walking 10 in 19 innings this post season. That's not Clemens like. Walking Cardinals is dangerous since they have so much power in their lineup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Game 7, NL Version
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Suppan is warming up, Biggio is in the on-deck circle. Let the game begin!

Update: Craig Biggio does what he does so often, lead off the game with a home run. It was just inside the foul pole down the left field line. Astros get off to a 1-0 lead.

Update: Biggio's bomb is it. Suppan gave up 3 runs in the first in his last start against the Astros, then went five more scoreless innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Quality vs. Quantity
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It didn't take Red Sox fans long to get smug about their great victory in the ALCS. Bambino's Curse quotes Soxaholic:


And the Soxaholix get it right: This puts an end to the Bucky Dent crap NY fans have thrown in our faces since '78. That dog don't hunt no more. Now NY fans can torment themselves with thoughts of Johnny [expletive] Damon.

You see, the problem is that "Greatest Comeback Ever" is in the eye of the beholder. Now, I happen to agree that this was likely the greatest comeback ever. But coming back from 13 games down and having your light hitting shortstop administer the lethal blow is pretty darn close to the greatest comeback ever. Being 1 strike from losing the World Series, down 2 runs in game 6, no one on base and still coming back to win the series is pretty darn close to the greatest comeback ever.

So by my scorecard, the Red Sox were involved in three of the greatest comebacks in baseball, and are 1-2. You get to flash the #1 finger, but the Yankees will always have Bucky Dent and the Mets will always have Bill Buckner. Those things just don't go away.

(The Bambino's Curse permalink isn't working yet, so try here It's working now.)

Update: There's one other thing. There is a greater comeback possible. A team could win the first three games of the World Series and then lose the series. We'll know in a few days if there's a chance of that happening.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | Post Season | Comments (18) | TrackBack (1)
Playoffs Today
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The Astros and Cardinals play Game 7, Number 2 tonight under the lights at Busch. Boston fans are excited because former Red Sox pitcher Jeff Suppan is going for the Cardinals tonight, and if he wins, he'll probably pitch game 7 of the World Series at Fenway. Yes, Red Sox nation can't forget his 7-3 record and 5.69 ERA in 1997, nor his 12 HR allowed in 63 innings pitched in his return engagement last year. I'm sure the Fenway Fanatics hope that their former star doesn't return.

Suppan, like all of the Cardinals starters, is an okay pitcher. He doesn't strikeout too many, but he doesn't walk too many. He's also pretty good at getting batters to hit into double plays. Jeff does give up the long ball. He had a great start against LA, and one bad inning against Houston. The ball will be over the plate for the Astros; it's up to them to pound it.

And there's another former Boston pitcher on the mound tonight. Roger Clemens would also be in line to pitch game 7 in Boston should the Astros win tonight. Boston fans will remember that Clemens has an interesting post-season history. He's been a fine post-season hurler; he's 10-6 with a 3.40 ERA. But he's seldom lights out when you need him to be. And that 10-6 record excludes 13 no-decisions. Given Garner's managing of the bullpen yesterday in which Qualls pitched 3 innings, Wheeler 2 and Lidge 3, Phil must think he's going to get close to a complete game out of Roger today. I'd be surprised at that.

Clemens is not an automatic win in the post-season. (Go ask Boston fans about 1986 and 1990.) But he should be able to beat someone of Suppan's caliber. We'll find out tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Cover Wars
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I'd say the Daily News beats the Post for best tabloid headlines today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 AM | News Media | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Victory for Sabermetics?
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Jeremy Senderowicz writes:


You think anyone will write about how this comeback proves the superiority of sabermetrics? (After all, everyone wrote the reverse about the A's collapse.)

The problem is, the Yankees are nearly as sabermetric as the Red Sox. Just because they don't have Bill James working for them doesn't mean they're not as attuned to the stats as Boston. Over the last decade, the Yankees have built their teams around

  • Batters who get on base and hit for power

  • Pitchers who strikeout a lot of batters and don't walk many

  • Pitcher who give up few HR


That's why the Yankees are always near the top of the Beane Count. You'll notice this year they finished behind the Red Sox, and the big reason why was HR allowed. That's what bit them in this series as well, especially last night.

So it was a big win for sabermetrics to have these two teams play each other. But it's even bigger than that. The Dodgers now have a sabermetric oriented GM, and they won their division. The Rangers are using sabermetrics, and they had a surprisingly good season. The Astros hired a consultant from Yale a couple of years ago. San Diego has a GM from the Sabermetric mold, and he built the team to win as they entered their new ballpark. The only real sabermetric failure was Toronto this year. I think that's a very good track record.

And watching Cleveland and Cincinnati, the people running those clubs know what they are doing as well. And they even have managers who are with the program. I'm looking for a lot of good baseball out of Ohio in the next few years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 AM | Statistics | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
For Damon Fans
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Greg Storey put together a nice photoshop of Damon rounding the bases after his grand slam. And he's selling T-Shirts!

And while I'm on shameless plugs, Baseball Info Solutions is selling books and downloadable season stats.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 AM | Mechandising | TrackBack (1)
The Red Sox Win!
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Sierra grounds out to Pokey Reese to give the Red Sox the AL Pennant! To quote Jack Buck, "I can't believe what I just saw!" I'll no longer be able to say I was at the last three World Series games at Fenway Park.

They're the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a seven game series. The did it against their arch rivals, in the ball park nicknamed after the greatest player they ever let go. It's a great night for the Red Sox fans, and I suspect there are going to be a lot of people late for work tomorrow morning.

I don't know what happened to the Yankees bats. They were on for the first three games, and switch off the rest of the way. They lost the process. They lost their timing. And the Red Sox took full advantage of that.

Schilling was a medical miracle. Lowe was a divine miracle. Damon was just divine. And David Ortiz provided the shoulders to carry them all. On to the World Series! We'll see who'll be visiting Fenway this weekend tomorrow night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:09 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (18) | TrackBack (1)
October 20, 2004
Bottom of the 9th
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It's the Yankees last chance. They need seven runs. Matsui, Williams and Posada will try to get on base.

Update: Matsui does his job and leads off with a single.

Update: Williams forces Matsui, one out.

Update: Posada pops out. And the season comes down to Kenny Lofton.

Update: Yankees fans have to be asking themselves, "Where's Calvin Shiraldi when you need him?"

Timlin walks Lofton and Francona pulls Timlin. With two on, it's now up to Olerud to keep hope alive. He'll face Embree.

Update: Sierra pinch hits for Olerud.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Return of the Jedi
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We're at the point where the emperor is blasting Luke with dark side lightning, and we're not sure if Vader is going to save his son or not.

Actually, we all know Vader is going to save Luke, but we haven't seen it happen.

Update: Nixon just scored the 10th run. That's Han blowing the shield generator.

Update: Rivera is in to face Damon.

Update: Rivera gets Damon. Come on Darth, save Luke!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Flash in the (Frying) Pan
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The Red Sox get the first two batters on against Tom Gordon. The Yankees can't afford to give up any more runs here, and Rivera is up in the pen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Timlin In
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Timlin starts the 8th against Jeter. The crowd is still loud, and the count is 3-0.

Update: Jeter takes the first five pitches to go 3-2, then grounds out to Mueller. A great play by the third and first basemen on the play.

Update: Yankees are approaching Timlin right. They're taking pitches, trying to get on base. They should have done this against Schilling last night.

Update: A-Rod strikes out. At least they finally have the process right.

Update: Sheffield grounds out to short. The Red Sox need just three more outs. The Yankees need six runs. To the ninth!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bell, Book and Candle
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Mark Bellhorn gets one back as he bangs a HR off the right field foul pole. Tom Gordon gives back a hard earned run.

Update: Gordon gets out of the inning with no more damage. The Yankees need three runs an inning just to tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Pedro In
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Just saw Pedro walking in from the bullpen, and he's listed in the box score. I don't like this move at all. Yes, Pedro is the best pitcher on the team, but he has to be a bit fatigued. Don't you want to have him in top form for the 1st game of the World Series? Even if Lowe gets in trouble, you have plenty of time to get someone warm.

If this backfires, Francona will find himself in Grady Little's company.

Update: Matsui rips a double off Pedro. The "Who's your daddy?"chants are back. The crowd is back into it. I don't like this at all.

Update: Bernie Williams doubles to deep center! It's 8-2. The Sox better get Pedro out of there now.

Update: Posada grounds out to Man-cave-ich, moving Bernie to third. Pedro coming in has electrified this crowd. Lofton lines the first pitch back up the middle for a hit and another run. It's 8-3. And here comes Olerud!

Update: Lofton steals second. It's still too risky down five runs.

Update: Olerud strikes out on a fast ball just off the plate. Here's Miguel Cairo's chance to be a hero.

Update: Cairo gets good wood on the ball, but flies out into the right field corner to Nixon. But Pedro got the crowd back into it, and a team that couldn't hit Lowe hit Pedro hard. Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (25) | TrackBack (0)
Reggie Damon?
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With two on, Heredia is being brought in to pitch to Damon. Here's a big chance for Johnny to equal Reggie Jackson' three in a game feat.

Update: Damon grounds into a double play, but I thought the runner was safe at second (the neighborhood play) and safe at first (Damon beat it out). Stretch time. We'll see if Lowe is replaced.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Three More Outs
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Lowe gets Jeter and A-Rod to ground out to short, then strikes out Sheffield. Looks like D. Lowe is driving the nails into the coffin all by himself.

Update: The TV announcers are talking about Lowe being relieved and Pedro coming into the game. Lowe has only thrown 69 pitches! Why fix something that's not broken? I hope the announcers are wrong.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Doing his Job
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Esteban Loaiza is getting the job done. 2 2/3 Scoreless innings so far. Can the offense get to Lowe?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ten More Pitches...
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And Lowe is through the 5th with another perfect inning. The Red Sox need only 12 more outs. They can even pitch badly in those 12 outs and still win the game.

Maybe the Red Sox should just let Lowe pitch when the season's on the line from now on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Nail, Coffin
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Someone finally gets Damon to hit the ball to an infielder and Loaiza screws up the run down. Instead of a man at first oand 2 out, there's men on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. Bellhorn up, Manny to follow.

Update: Bellhorn pops to Jeter. I doubt they'll walk Manny to face Ortiz.

Update: Manny hits it hard but right at Jeter. The coffin remains unsealed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Keeping the Score Lowe
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A perfect inning for Lowe. He'll now have the weak bottom of the Yankees order in the 5th.

Derek has only thrown 49 pitches; 12 per inning. He can go eight innings at that rate. This is a real embarassment for the Yankees offense. They couldn't hit a hobbled Schilling last night, and they can't even drive Lowe's pitch count up tonight. This is not the Yankees offense that's been so deadly for so long.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Maybe Damon is God
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Damon just hit his 2nd HR of the game. It was bad enough that Vazquez walked Cabrera, but giving up a 2nd HR to Damon is a killer. Now he walks Bellhorn, and the Yankees need another pitcher.

Red Sox fans, I think you're going to win this.

Update: Vazquez can't get Cabrera, Damon or Bellhorn, but he gets Manny to pop out. Go figure. At least Javier has a great Scrabble name.

Update: Vazquez walks Ortiz (that's better than allowing a HR). That's it, they're going to the big gun, Esteban Loaiza! That should instill a lot of confidence in the NY fans! :-)

Update: Varitek hits a rocket off Cairo. Miguel looked like Horace Clarke on that play.

Update: Loaiza gets out of the inning with no more damage. Seven runs is a big deficit to overcome, especially when it's not likely that your pitching is going to shut down the opposition for the rest of the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (13) | TrackBack (1)
Cairo Running?
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Down 6-0, Miguel Cairo steals a base. What are the Yankees thinking? They can't afford to lose a baserunner at this point!

Luckily, he picked a good pitch to run on, and Jeter follows with a single to drive him in (Manny not being able to pick up the ball helps). Jeter on first, 1 out. Time for the big hitters to earn their pay.

Update: A-Rod manages a weak bouncer to the pitcher. At least he moved the runner! Is that a productive out?

Update: Sheffield at least hits a bullet, but it's right at Mueller. To the 4th, with the Red Sox up 6-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Time to Hope?
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I remember the Red Sox being 1 out from a World Series victory in 1986. I remember calling a friend who was a big Red Sox fan and saying, "It looks like they're actually going to win!" Boston fans, now is not the time to think, "We're going to win!" It's much safer to assume you're going to lose tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Not Sharp
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Brown gets the first batter in the inning, but Millar gets another single on a hard-hit ball. Mueller gets ahead 3-0, then draws a 3-1 walk. Vazquez is up in the bullpen. They're not going to wait for Brown to blow up.

Update: Brown walks Cabrera to load the bases with 1 out. That's just terrible, and Vazquez is coming into the game. The Red Sox have a chance to win this game here in the 2nd inning.

Update: Can't you just see Vazquez allowing a grand slam here?

Update: I really did write the above before Damon hit the homer. Unbelievable. The Red Sox are up 6-0. And in the 2nd innings, things look very bleak for the Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Keeping it Lowe
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Derek has an easy 1st, getting the side 1-2-3, including a strikeout of Sheffield. The three righties at the top of the Yankees order just look off at the plate. Even when they make contact, they're not hitting the ball hard.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Damon Does It
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Johnny Damon leads off with a single. Watching A-Rod in this series, I'm less impressed with his defense than I was during the regular season. He dove but couldn't catch the Damon shot.

Update: Damon steals, but Bellhorn, back at the top of the order, strikes out.

Update: Bad fielding, good throw. Ramirez hits a hard grounder that goes under Jeter's glove. (Shades of 2002 vs. Anaheim.) But Matsui comes up with the ball relays to Jeter, and Jeter makes a perfect throw to nail Damon at the plate.

However, Ortiz comes up and hits a 2-run homer to give Boston the early lead. He's been amazing. The Yankees have controled Ramirez. Manny has 9 hits, but 8 of them are singles. Meanwhile, Ortiz has picked up the slack and kept Boston in this series.

Update: Brown gets Varitek to ground out to end the inning. He had three hard hit balls off him, which is not a good sign. And his team is in a hole. The Yankees have to hope the horrible Derek Lowe is showing up tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Working On My Cliches
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There's no tomorrow.

Their backs are against the wall.

It's do or die.

Winner take all.

The Red Sox and Yankees are ready to go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 12th
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Dan Miceli is on in relief, and he walks Pujols to start the inning.

Update: Rolen gives the Astros a gift. After a four pitch walk, he swings at the first pitch and fouls out to the catcher.

However, Edmonds sends a ball over the fence in right-center to win the game for the Cardinals! The middle of the order comes through again! Game 7 tomorrow.

The Astros just ran out of pitchers. I really wonder if it wouldn't have been better to trot out Ligde for one more inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 12th
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Anderson takes over at 2nd. Beltran up.

Update: Beltran grounds out to Pujols.

Update: Bagwell pops out to the catcher in foul territory. Two pitches, two out for Tavarez. Backe is pinch hitting for Lidge. He's a former outfielder.

Update: Backe runs the count to 3-2, then strikes out. At least he made Tavarez work. Pujols up next in the bottom of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 11th
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Lidge is on for a third inning. He's only thrown 19 pitches so far, however.

Update: Taguchi strikes out to stat the 11th.

Update: Marlon Anderson pinch hits for Luna.

Update: Anderson flies to left. Walker tries to keep the inning going.

Update: Walker strikes out. If this game doesn't end soon, I won't be able to see the end.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Heaven Must Be Missing an Angel
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Tavarez gets the Astros 1-2-3 in the 11th. If they can make it to the 12th, Beltran and Bagwell will be up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Broken In
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Julian Tavarez and his broken hand are now in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Tenth
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Isringhausen has an easy 1-2-3 top of the tenth. The bottom of the order is up for St. Louis.

Update: Lidge also has an easy inning, getting the Cards 1-2-3. On to the 11th!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Interesting double switch. Lane takes over for Berkman in right. If this game does deep into extra innings, the Astros may miss Berkman's bat.

Update: Lidge gets Pujols to ground out to short. Now he's facing Rolen.

Update: Rolen Ks. Edmonds next.

Update: Lidge strikesout Rolen. He has 11 K in this LCS, setting a record for a reliever, according to Fox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Top of the 9th
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Dan Wheeler does another great job, keeping the Cardinals scoreles for two innings. The 8-9-1 hitters will be up for the Astros in the 9th. One has to get on base to give Beltran a chance to bat.

Update: Ensberg pinch hits and leads off in the 9th.

Update: Morgan gets hit with a pitch with two strikes on him. Leadoff man on for the Astros. Eric Brunlett pinch hits now.

Update: Bruntlett drops down a nice bunt, putting Ensberg on 2nd for Biggio.

Update: Biggio gets good wood on the ball, but hits a fly to left. Two outs, man on 2nd, Beltran up. Walk or pitch to him?

Update: They are walking Beltran. It's up to Bagwell.

Update: I'm not sure I like this. If Beltran hits a homer, you're down by 1. If Bagwell homers, you're down by 2.

Update: Jeff Bagwell lines the first pitch into left for an RBI single! The score is tied at 4. Lance Berkman up.

Update: Double steal! They're not walking Berkman.

Update: Berkman strikes out. The Astros get to Isringhausen again. Lidge is coming on to try to keep the game tied. Pujols will lead off in the 9th. He needs a triple for the cycle, and a homer wins the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:09 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Izzy Pitching
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Jason Isringhausen comes in to pitch the 8th. He did fine in the first inning yesterday; it was in the 9th he got hit. Cardinals pitchers have only 1 strikeout this game.

Update: Kent gets a double off Jason. That's two extra-base hits in a row for Kent off the closer.

Update: Isringhausen gets out of the inning. The Cardinals are three outs away from game 7.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Back From Dinner
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Looks like I didn't miss much. It's still 4-3 in the 7th. Both bullpens are doing a good job. Neither has allowed a run yet. The Astros pen has five K in 3 2/3 innings.

Update: Beltran hits the same liner he hit in the third, and once again Walker is in perfect position to hold him to a single.

Update: Bagwell flies out to Walker to end the inning this time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:29 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Good Inning
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Morris gets Beltran, Bagwell and Berkman in order in the fifth. He's thrown 80 pitches through five. Looks like one or two more innings at the most for Morris.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Out Like a Lamb
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Mike Lamb gets his 2nd hit of the NLCS, his 2nd HR. It's 4-3 in the top of the 4th, St. Louis on top. Harville is out as Everett pinch hits with Ausmus on first.

Update: Lamb giveth, and Lamb taketh away. He has a ball hit right by him by Pujols. It should have been an easy play, but he didn't get in front of the hit. That gave Albert 3/4 of the cycle. Rolen doubles, getting the same carrom that Bagwell had earlier. But Vizcaino makes a better play than the Cardinals, runs out and gets the ball and throws Pujols out at the plate. Pujols had run through his coaches stop sign.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:37 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Luna-cy
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Tony Womack has been removed from the game before the top of the fourth. Hector Luna is in defensively. Watching the replay, it looked like he hurt himself on his single. Fox is reporting lower back spasms.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
No Arm
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With Pujols and Rolen on first and second, Edmonds hits a fly ball to left. It was deep, but it wasn't to the warning track. Pujols and Edmonds both tagged up and Biggio's throw to third wasn't close. Renteria comes through with his 2nd hit of the game to drive both in. A great example of exploiting a weakness.

Update: And it chases Munro. Harville is on to try to put out the fire.

Update: Harville gives up a double to Sanders. St. Louis is finally showing some offensive depth in the series.

Update: Harville comes back to strike out the M&M battery. It's 4-2 after three. Slugfest, anyone?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM | Defense • | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Great Play, Bad Bounce
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With two out, Carlos Beltran hits a line drive off the wall in right. Larry Walker is positioned perfectly, and with his great arm holds Beltran to a single.

Then Bagwell hits a grounder past the third baseman which hits the wall in foul territory and takes a perpendicular bounce past the charging Reggie Sanders. Beltran comes around to score from first. It's 2-2 in the 3rd.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Throwing Strikes
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Pete Munro gives up another single to Womack, but gets through the 2nd unscathed. He's throwing strikes; only 9 of his 36 pitches have been called balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:58 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Being Aggressive
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The Astros try running on a 3-2 count, and end up in a strikeout - caught stealing double play. Munro will lead off the third if he's still pitching. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Pujols Pulls One
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With Womack at 2nd after a leadoff single, Albert Pujols pulls the ball over the left-center fence to grab the lead 2-1 for the Cardinals in the bottom of the first. It's his 4th HR of the NLCS.

Update: The Astros could be in real trouble today. Womack and Renteria both have hits. Munro gives up two more singles after the Pujols HR, but gets out of the inning with no more damage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:30 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
B-Movie
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Biggio grounds out, but Beltran walks, steals, goes to third on a Bagwell single, then scores on a Berkman sacrifice fly. The Astros get on the board early and take a 1-0 lead in the top of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Brown To Start
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The pre-game show announced that it will indeed be Kevin Brown pitching tonight for the Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:05 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
Good News For Satellite Radio
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XM has inked an 11-year deal with MLB to broadcast all baseball games in 2005.


In addition to broadcasting live games, XM will create a Major League Baseball radio channel featuring original content and classic Major League Baseball game broadcasts. As Major League Baseball enjoys strong support from its Hispanic fan base, XM also will broadcast select games in Spanish.

"Baseball has enormous appeal, not only to its millions of fans, but to automobile manufacturers as well, which will help further strengthen XM's leadership position in the automotive market," Panero concluded.


XM, there's a lot of blogging talent out here that would be very good on the radio. How about the blogger's radio hour?

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Broadcasts | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Houston and St. Louis resume their series today with the Astros on the edge of their first World Series berth in their 43 year history. They'll send Pete Munro to the mound to face the Cardinals' Matt Morris. The Astros had the option of sending Clemens to the mound on short rest, or waiting until game 7. Friends I have discussed this with all agree this is the right move:


  • Clemens will be well rested if he has to pitch game 7.

  • If the Astros win, Clemens will be able to pitch game 1 of the World Series.


I agree. Last year, I agrued that the Marlins should have followed this strategy in the World Series. Up 1 game going into game 6, however, McKeon started Beckett in game 6 to go for the win, and it worked for him. I'm glad to see Garner following it now. If he decided to go with both Clemens and Oswalt on short rest, I don't think he would be criticized, but I believe this is more likely to work out.

That said, the Cardinals should be able to win this game. I have to believe that given enough matchups between Morris and Munro, Matt is going to come out on top most of the time. Neither has been wildly successful in the playoffs so far. Morris has given up 4 HR in 12 IP. Opponents are hitting .316 off Pete. Most of the Cardinals relievers have had a couple of days off. I don't expect either starter to last much more than five innings and once again the Cardinals are more likely to pound Houston's middle relief. Maybe the bottom of the Cardinals order can get some hits today.

The main attraction, of course, is in New York tonight. The Red Sox will start Derek Lowe. I don't know who will start for the Yankees; most likely Brown or Vazquez. Neither teams fans can be too happy with any of the choices. Lowe doesn't seem to know mediocrity; he'll either be great or terrible. As for Brown or Vazquez, Brown would be my first choice. It's not that he's so much better than Javier at this point; it's that he's a competitive bastard, and sometimes you need a player who just doesn't want to lose. You know, a Captian Kirk type:


Kirk watches Saavik.

KIRK
What's on your mind, Lieutenant?

SAAVIK
The Kobayashi Maru, sir.

DAVID
The what?

BONES
The no-win scenario -- and with
what philosophy a commander faces
defeat.

KIRK
Are you asking me if we are playing
out that scenario now, Lieutenant?

SAAVIK
On the test, sir, will you tell me
what you did? I'd really like to
know.

Kirk looks at Bones, who smiles --

BONES
Lieutenant, you are looking at the
only Starfleet cadet who ever beat
the no-win scenario --

KIRK
And almost got tossed out of the
Academy...

He looks at his watch again, using his glasses --

SAAVIK
How?

KIRK
I reprogrammed the simulation so it
was possible to rescue the ship.

SAAVIK
WHAT?

KIRK
I changed the conditions of the
test. I received a commendation for
original thinking.
(pause)
I don't like to lose.

That's what Kevin Brown would bring them tonight. Whether he'll be effective is another story. I'm guessing the final score will be 8-7. Who'll win? Hard to see, the dark side is.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Hargrove a Mariner
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Mike Hargrove has been hired by the Mariners.


"He has a tremendous resume and is battle-tested in every facet of leading a major league club," general manager Bill Bavasi said in a news release.

Hargrove replaces Bob Melvin, who was fired Oct. 10, a day after Seattle ended the season with its 99th loss, the second-most in the American League.


When Hargrove was at the end of his stint with Cleveland, I heard from the grapevine at ESPN that there was a lot of carping by the players about Hargrove not being communicative. Or outright lying. Telling someone he's going to play and then not playing him. I don't know how true that was.

Hargrove is a safe choice for the Mariners. He's not going to do anything new or innovative. He'll bunt when he's supposed to bunt and change pitchers when he's supposed to change pitchers. Give him a great team and they'll win. Give him a bad team and they'll lose. I don't believe Grover adds anything to the mix.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:10 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ode to the Mountain Men
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Tom Bridge sends this poem a friend sent him:


Oh, how I envy thee, Mountain Time Dweller.
The slow death of the baseball fan in October
So, sweet, so delicious
yet in bed by 10 pm

Oh, how I envy thee, Mountain Time Dweller
In my minds eye, I see thee.
The crack of the bat against the golden hues
of October Aspens quaking in the breeze
like a knuckler tumbling through the air

Oh, how I envy thee, Mountain Time Dweller
The eastern daylight time, salutes you
with bleary eye and dry tongue
Mountain Time Baseball Fan!


I've been drained by these series. I can't imagine what effect it's having on the players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM | Post Season | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
View From Iraq
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The Baseball Crank has a guest correspondent, an army officer and Red Sox fan stationed in Iraq. My favorite quote from his letters:


In the bottom of the ninth, though, it was just me, SFC Nebelkopf, and Major Hayden, a Sox fan from Springfield, MA. We were the only ones still around to watch Foulke strike out Tony Clark. With the final out and assurance of a Game 7, there was at first an overwhelming feeling of joy. That was quickly put in check by a strange sense calm and accomplishment.

Sox fans are weird like that. It’s not that I’m satisfied just to get to a Game 7. And it’s not so much that I expect the Sox to blow Game 7 tonight (or early tomorrow morning, depending on which side of the International Date Line you’re sailing). But if they do, I’ll have to wonder, what if the Sox had died peacefully in my sleep on Sunday night? Wouldn’t that have been easier? Damn them for sucking me back in.


Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
About Last Night
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Even having had a night to sleep on it, I can't believe how the Yankees approached Schilling last night. Actually, what I can't believe is that they didn't have an approach against Schilling last night. Bunting against him would not have been a great strategy, but it would have been a strategy. This is supposed to be a smart organization with smart players. Did Torre have a conversation with the players before the game? Was there a meeting about taking pitches? About what to expect from Curt with a numb ankle? Was the strategy, "Just swing at any pitch that looks good?"

Willie Randolph was a great leadoff man. Did he bother to talk to Jeter before the game? Did he tell him that Knoblauch or Boggs or Henderson would have worked Schilling for at least five or six pitches? Jeter's job in that first AB was to see what Schilling had. He needed to keep the bat on his shoulder until he had two strikes, then only swing at pitches in the zone. He needed to let A-Rod and Sheffield see what was and wasn't working for Schilling that night. In fact, that should have been the strategy for the whole team the first time through the order.

Because Schilling didn't matter. It didn't matter if he pitched great or not. What mattered was getting him out of the game early by either hitting him hard or forcing him to throw a lot of pitches. Then maybe you pound a tired bullpen, and if nothing else, you wear them out more for game 7. But the Yankees let Schilling go 7. Foulke's arm may be pitched out, but the rest of the pen got some needed rest.

Torre and Randolph need to be asked about this. There appeared to be no grand strategy last night, and Joe needs to be held responsible for that.

Update: I was looking through my World Series archives and found this. Sound familiar?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Tomorrow's Starter
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Torre just said he hasn't decided on tomorrow's starter.

Update: Joe also just said that he might go with a piecemeal approach, letting pitchers go two or three innings each.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:25 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Rule
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Baseball Tonight just explained the rule that led to Rodriguez being called out. It's not clear in the official rule book. It is in a book the umps and managers use that gives guidelines to the rules. That's why the commentors in this post can't find the specific rule.

Correction: I meant Rodriguez, not Jeter as originally posted.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Win
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Schilling is being interviewed. He said he struggled from the 4th inning on, but his mistakes were hit right at people. I think that's right. I don't Schilling was that sharp, but the Yankees just were off kilter all evening. If this Yankees team was right, they should have been able to hit him. It came down to Lieber having one bad inning, and Schilling none.

The Red Sox are the first baseball team to be down 3-0 and force a game 7. They've increase their odds of winning the pennant from 6% after Saturday's game to 50% tomorrow. Lowe will start for Boston. I'm not sure, but it looks like it will be Brown for New York. And of course, we get the Astros-Cardinals as the first feature. Should be another fun day tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 19, 2004
Bottom of the 9th
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Keith Foulke is in. I'm a little surprised by this. Arroyo pitched well again. Foulke has been used a lot. He needs three outs, and the Yankees have been off balance all night.

Update: The police are off the field but close by.

Update: Matsui walks on a full count to lead off the 9th.

Update: Bernie strikes out swinging. He was fooled on a low, outside pitch. Posada's turn.

Update: Posada pops out to third, although Mueller almost loses his footing. The game is up to Sierra now.

Update: Sierra walks. Tony Clark comes to the plate. The Yankees have to wish that Olerud was healthy right now.

Update: Clark gets ahead 2-0. How can Foulke miss his strikezone?

Update: It's 3-2 now to Clark.

Update: Clark swings and misses! The Red Sox win!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More Debris
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Cabrera reaches on a fielder's choice on what could have been a double play. It wasn't that close at first, but the crowd started throwing things again. The umps have had the stadium make announcements (although Joe Buck is not telling us what they said). I assume they've threatened a forfeit. There's 1 out, a man on first and Sturtze is coming into the game.

Update: The police are coming out to line the stands along the lines in foul territory to keep the fans in line. Very strange.

Update: With the game underway again, Cabrera steals 2nd and Bellhorn walks. Reese pinch runs for Mark. One out, and two on.

Update: Damon pops out to short. No argument on that one.

Update: Mueller pops out to Jeter to end the Red Sox ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 PM | Fan Violence | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Two For Cairo
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Miguel Cairo gets his 2nd double of the night, after Arroyo shakes off Varitek twice. This time it was a down the right field line. Jeter follows with a single to drive in Miguel, and the heart of the Yankees order is coming up with 1 out. It's 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th.

Update: Rivera is warming up in the Yankees bullpen just in case.

Update: On a slow roller down the first base line, A-Rod knocks the ball out of Arroyo's glove. They originally called A-Rod safe, with Jeter scoring, but once again the umps get together and discuss the situation and correctly call A-Rod out. Jeter has to go back to first.

The Yankees fans are very upset and throwing things on the field. It's very clear in slow motion as to what happened, but it looked like an error when I saw it in real time.

Update: Kudos to the umpries tonight for working as a team to get the calls right. I'd like to see that more often.

Update: Sheffield pops up to end the inning. The Red Sox are 3 outs away from game 7.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (37) | TrackBack (0)
Lieber Out
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With one out in the 8th Manny Ramirez singles and Felix Heredia is summoned to pitch to Ortiz.

Update: Heredia gets David Ortiz to fly out. The Red Sox send Kapler to the plate, and the Yankees counter with Quantrill. We'll see if his knee is better.

Update: Kapler gets a single, but Millar grounds out to short. Schilling is out, Arroyo is in.

Schilling pitched an amazing game. I think any one who goes on the DL in the future should be considered a sissy. :-) Schilling didn't have his strikeout pitch, but he threw strikes (67 of 99 pitches). He pitched a Lieber like game, and he did it better than Jon tonight.

The Yankees approach was poor. Early in the game they were not patient enough. The first time through the order they should have been taking as many pitches as possible to make Schilling work. Instead, they gave him two easy innings to start the game, and Curt settled in after that.

Can the Yankees get to Arroyo?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bernie Blasts
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Bernie Williams gets the Yankees on the board in the 7th with a shot into the right field stands. It's 4-1 in the 7th, and there's action in the Red Sox bullpen.

Update: Schilling gets out of the 7th with no more damage, striking out Sierra for the third time to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Lieber Back In Control
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Jon Lieber retires the Sox 1-2-3 in the 7th. He's been perfect since the fourth. He's keeping the team in the game; the offense needs to support him now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Through Six
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Schilling gets the top of the order 1-2-3 in the the 6th. He's pitched very well tonight, not issuing a walk. The Yankees are getting the bat on the ball, but they're not hitting it hard. It's much better than I expected Schilling to be. Whatever they injected into his foot, it's working well enough. This outing is exactly what the Red Sox needed. Schilling is not only winning the game, he's resting the bullpen for tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
More Wind
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The wind is really being rough on the fielders tonight. There have been a number of balls caught where the outfielders looked like they got a bad jump. Sierra hit a foul pop that Varitek and Mueller dropped, and both looked confused. Varitek over-ran the ball, forcing Mueller to hold up and just miss catching it. Sierra, however, strikes out for the 2nd time.

Update: 1-2-3 for Schilling, including two strikeouts. He's staying strong.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Two On
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A-Rod gets a solid single to lead off the 4th, Sheffield gets a lucky single that rolls and hits third to put two on for the Yankees. Matsui hits the first pitch and pops out.

Update: Bernie just got a hold of one that just went foul. My daughter and I are both wondering if the wind helped it foul.

Update: Bernie grounds out to Millar, Schilling covering. Looks like he was able to get there oaky. Men on 2nd and 3rd with two out.

Update: Posada also grounds out to Millar, unassisted. Schilling ran to first, but was visibly limping when he let up. Again, the Yankees are getting the bat on the ball. Curt's only thrown 54 pitches, but those two runs to first probably took more out of his foot that all that pushing off the rubber.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Varitek Veritas
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Lieber has gotten into trouble with 2 out in the 4th. Millar doubles and moves to third on a wild pitch. Varitek has a great AB, falling behind in the count, but fouling off pitches, working the count to 3-2, then lining a single to center to give Boston a 1-0 lead. Cabrera follows with a single of his own.

Update: Bellhorn appears to double off the left field wall, but the replay shows it's a three-run homer. Matsui's reaction indicated home run. The umps are discussing it. At worst, the Sox are up 3-0.

Update: The umps talk it over and reverse the call. It's a HR and the Sox are up 4-0. A big blow for Belhorn.

Update: Lieber gets Damon to fly out to end the inning. Varitek's AB should be held up as the pivotal moment in the game. Lieber should have had him, but he battled and battled and got the solid hit for the lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
First K
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Schilling gets Sierra to strike out, his first K of the game. Looks like his splitter is working.

Update: Cairo gets the first hit of the night, a ground rule double to the deepest part of Yankee Stadium, left center.

Update: Jeter flies out to center to end the inning. Once again, Jeter isn't very selective at the plate, swinging at ball two before popping out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
DP Lieber
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Lieber gives up a leadoff single to Damon, but Mueller grounds into a double play. Lieber has gotten the ground ball outs when he's needed them this evening. He's thrown 50 pitches through three innings, 33 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Blowin' In the Wind
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With two out in the 2nd, Posada launches a ball that looked like a home run, but the strong wind kept it in the park, as Nixon catches it at the wall. Schilling has retired six in a row and has only thrown 23 pitches.

The only problem is that he hasn't struck anyone out. The Yankees are getting the bat on the ball. Schilling is a strikeout pitcher, and if he keeps letting the Yankees put the ball in play, eventually they will fall in for hits.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bunt Strategy
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It's Boston that uses the bunt to get a hit. With Millar on first, Varitek lays one down the third base line. On a play that Nettles would have made easily, A-Rod could not get a good grip on the wet ball, and the Red Sox have men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Cabrera lines a single to left. Millar couldn't get a jump due to the ball in the air, so the bases are loaded for Bellhorn.

Update: Lieber gets Bellhorn to ground into a 4-6-3 double play. Top of the order will be up for the Sox in the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Schilling's First
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The weather at the stadium is awful. There is a misty rain falling. You can see it blowing in the breeze. It's a miserable night, the kind that is just going to wear on the players in the field. Just how many hurdles can be thrown in front of Curt?

Update: Jeter doesn't bunt, but swings at the first pitch and flies out. Why? You have to make Schilling work in this game. Jeter should have made Schilling throw at least three pitches just to show everyone what Curt has.

Update: Schilling gets the Yankees 1-2-3 in the first. It looks like he has his velocity back, although a couple of pitches to Rodriguez looked like they were out of control. But he only threw 11 pitches, which is just what the Red Sox need.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Game 6, Boston at NY
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Bill Mueller will be batting 2nd tonight, with Cabrera 8th and Bellhorn 9th. Mueller is 15 for 31 vs. Lieber career. The Sox must believe that's for real. Also, Fox just showed Curt in the bullpen, and it appears he's not wearing the special shoe.

Update: Game underway, Lieber gets ahead 0-2 on Damon.

Update: Lieber goes 3-2 to Damon, then strikes him out looking.

Update: Lieber gets hit in the leg. Manny up.

Update: A hard grounder to Clark, and Ortiz is out. Lieber has a relatively easy first.

Update: Manny breaks his bat and flies out to right. Now Ortiz is up with a man on base, and he's getting booed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Just Call and Ask
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Looks like it's not a problem if the game gets rained out tonight. There's another way to settle the series. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Sox Strategy
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It's one thing to use unconventional means to get to Curt Schilling, but how are the Red Sox going to approach Jon Lieber?


In Game 2, Lieber took advantage of the aggressiveness of Boston hitters, especially early in counts. He was consistently putting his first pitches on the corners - or maybe slightly off - and the Red Sox hitters were chasing them.

``Those guys are aggressive and he took advantage of it,'' Posada said. ``He knows what to do. He was able to put the ball where he wanted to.''

After the game, the Sox said they swung at the ``pitcher's pitch'' instead of waiting for a ball they could drive.

``I hoped they'd get themselves out early in the count,'' Lieber said.

How do you go after a pitcher who doesn't walk anyone? The Sox tried to focus on early pitches. But if those are taken for strikes, the Sox batters will be in a hole. They need to hope that Lieber is off tonight, and those early pitches are called balls. If not, they'll have to go back to being aggressive early in the count, and hope they have more luck than they did in game 2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Game Strategy
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The Columbia-Union blog points to a strategy the Yankees are thinking of employing against Schilling:


According to ESPN Radio this morning, the Yankees are allegedly planning to bunt, over and over again, in an effort to make the hobbled Curt Schilling field balls on wet grass, and cover first.

With Schilling's ankle already tenuous at best (he'll be wearing a special sneaker-boot designed to keep his tendon from snapping against bone), this is a devious plan worthy of Snidely Whiplash, Darth Vader, or name your favorite villain.


The author believes this is an unsportsman like plan.

Just because the Spankees have been rocked and shocked for two games by the resurgent Ortiz, Foulke & Co. is no excuse to promote injuries.

It's just unsportsmanlike, from a team which is always claiming it has more "class" than others.


For some reason, I thought the point of playing professional baseball games is to win. Every game offers a different set of opponents strengths to overcome and weaknesses to exploit. Schilling's injury is a weakness to exploit, and the Yankees would be derelict in their duty to win if they didn't try to use it against Curt. Now I think they should just wait to see if all Schilling can throw is the slow, straight stuff, because it's better to cream those pitches than lay down a lot of bunts. But the strategy of taking advantage of Schilling's immobility is perfectly reasonable. There's no free pass here.

I was talking with Jim Storer earlier today, who had a very similar injury. (His was worse, since a bone fragment broke off with the tendon.) Jim told me the weather shouldn't bother him (the weather bothers Jim now that he's had the ankle surgicially repaired). But slipping will bother him; slipping off the rubber when he tries to push off, and slipping on wet grass when he tries to field a ball. Given that, the Yankees strategy of bunting is absolutely the right way to go. They need to get Schilling out of the game early and pound a depleted bullpen.

Remember, the Yankees have a different goal than the Red Sox. New York needs to win one game out of two. The more they can tire out Red Sox pitching, the more likely they are to win one of the two. If Schilling can't push off tonight, they'll just blast him, and he'll be out of the game early. If he can push off and be effective, they'll bunt and take advantage of the injury. That's the right way to play the game.

And finally, why is it okay to get injections of a numbing agent before and during a game? Isn't that a performance enhancing drug? As someone who isn't outraged by steroid use, I don't really care. But I wonder why I've heard none of the Bonds/Sheffield critics complain about Schillings shots? How come that's not cheating? It's very likely that Curt's injury is worse for pitching through the pain all these months. Isn't that partly why people object to steroids, the long term damage they do? No, if Schilling gets a shot to pitch through an injury, the Yankees have every right to take advantage of that same problem.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (21) | TrackBack (1)
Welcome Aboard!
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It seems a lot of fair weather fans are jumping on the Houston bandwagon. They're more than welcome there.

From declines in workplace productivity on game days, to specials at Church's Chicken, Astros mania has ensnared the masses.

"It's so amazing — I'm the biggest Astros fan in the world," said JoAnna Garcia, 20, of Baytown, after Houston's 3-0 win over St. Louis Monday night. "We're going all the way. We believe. We're so proud. We're going to the World Series."

Unlike their counterparts in some cities, longtime fans aren't complaining about the "Johnny-and Jilly-come-latelies." In fact, they're doing the opposite.

"I'm OK with that," said Rob Turlak, 48. "You are going to have them in any sport. The more the merrier."

I love the decline in workplace productivity line. That harkens back to the old days when the World Series was played in day light and people at work and in school gathered around the radio to listen to the game.

I'm still waiting for Lisa Gray to report on the game. (Update: Here it is).

Meanwhile, Cardinals fans are in pain. Brian has criticism for La Russa as well:

As for Tony La Russa, like yesterday I admired two of his moves and disagreed strongly with a third. The good moves were (1) pinch-hitting John Mabry in the 8th (it took Woody out of the game, but you need to score runs before you can even think about winning), and (2) bringing in Izzy in a tie game in the 8th (finally, I thought, La Russa is learning exactly how to run his bullpen).

But the move that cost him -- and cost him dearly -- was walking Berkman intentionally to bring up Kent. I don't say this in hindsight either. I thought it was a bad move at the time; I think it's a bad move now. Consider: after Beltran stole a base and moved into scoring position (big surprise, huh?), the Cards faced one out, runner on second, and -- this is key -- two strikes on Lance Berkman. It was a 2-2 count and yet La Russa walked him anyway.

Check out the stats he uses to back this up at his site.

Finally, a look at the best vs. depth issue:

Batting AverageCardinalsAstros
Big 4 (2-5 hitters).347.333
Others.126.185

Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman and Kent have been able to keep up with Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds. The Astros have gotten relatively better production from the rest of their lineup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
"There's a spider in the bathroom the size of a Buick!"
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Bambino's Curse and Bronx Banter are both quoting Annie Hall in light of last night's game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
History or a Footnote
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Thomas Boswell does a good job of capturing the ALCS so far. It's either going to be the greatest comeback in baseball history or another buildup and let down for the Boston fans.

I thought this was interesting:


However, the event in baseball that has the most impact from one game to the next, which leads to streaks and slumps more often than should be statistically predictable, is the blown save. Back-to-back blown pennant saves have never happened before. So how can we know how the odds of this series have just been skewed? But in baseball, some psychological events have real statistical implications.

In other words, if a team were going to do something that hasn't happened in 101 years, then winning two games in one day after a pair of blown Rivera saves would be the kind of almost unimaginable event that might ignite it.


Interesting, and baloney. The Red Sox were drubbed on Saturday night. The Yankees took them apart bit by bit and ground them into dust. How could a team that was so badly beaten, that had it's two great starters outpitched in games 1 and 2, then mauled at home ever come back to win game 4? We know now.

And we know that the Yankees are not going to play dead because they lost two close games in Fenway Park. These are two incredibly competitive teams. They're tired, yes, but both are sure they can win this game tonight. There's no hand wringing. There's no worrying. (Well, maybe the GMs.)

And there's no relievers. If one of the starters gets in trouble early, I'm not sure how either side plays it. The Yankees, of course, can afford to save their staff for game 7. The Red Sox can't. They are sending Schilling to the mound with a high top sneaker his main support. My good friend Jim Storer had the same injury as Schilling, and he told me the other day just how painful it was. I would suspect that on a cold, damp night it's going to be even worse. Arroyo went an inning last night; either he or Lowe is likely to be the long man if Curt breaks down early.

If Schilling guts it out and pitches well, his performance will go along side Gibson's 1988 HR off Eckersley as one of the most heroic moments in the game. It will be another unlikely performance in an ALCS which has had nothing but unlikely performances.

And all this just to set up Miguel Cairo to be the hero in game 7. How else could this end?

(Hat tip to Soccer Dad on the Boswell article.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
October 18, 2004
Bottom of the 9th
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Beltran (who made a great catch earlier), gets only the third hit of the night leading off the 9th. He's on first for Bagwell.

Update: Bagwell hits a foul fly that hits the roof, so the Cards can't catch it. He stays alive on the ceiling shot.

Update: Bagwell flies out to Edmonds in right-center.

Update: Beltran steals 2nd with no throw. He's perfect stealing since coming to the Astros.

Update: With first open, they walk Berkman to pitch to Kent. Kent hits the first pitch for a three-run homer over everything in left! Astros go up 3-2!

This is turning out to be like the 1987 World Series, where the Cardinals won 1 & 2 at home, lost three in a dome, then came home to take the series, winning games six and seven. What a night for baseball! see correction.

Correction: This is what happens when I don't enough sleep. The 1987 World Series was the opposite of what I wrote above. St. Louis lost two in the dome, won three at home, then lost the last two in the dome. So the only thing in common there is the dome losses and the home victories.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Put the Lidge On
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Lidge gets Womack to ground out, then K's Walker and Pujols. The Astros staff more than did it's job tonight. Time for the hitters to come through.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Houston, Hello!
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Luckily, I haven't missed anything in the NLCS tonight. Still one hit for each team through 8. Lidge is on to pitch the 9th after Backe gave then 8 fantastic innings, 1 hit, 2 walks, 4 K. Williams did a wonderful job as well, going seven 1 hit innings and passing the game to Isringhausen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 14th
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Bellhorn K's to start the 14th for the Red Sox.

Update: Damon walks. That may give Manny a chance to bat this inning.

Update: Cabrera strikes out. Here comes Manny with two out. Do you walk Manny and Ortiz to pitch to Mientkiewicz?

Update: Manny walks on a three-two count. Winning run on 2nd for Ortiz.

Update: Ortiz falls behind 1-2.

Update: Ortiz wins it again! A bloop single to center sends the series back to New York! What a game, the best since the Mets-Astros game 6 in 1986.

And they managed to finish before the Cards and Astros! David Ortiz has cemented himself in Boston Red Sox lore. He may end up bigger than Carlton Fisk and Dave Henderson combined.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3
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Wakefield gets the Yankees 1-2-3 in the 14th. It's been two hours since the NL game started, and neither team has scored. Backe and Williams have dueling one-hitters going. It may be November before we see a run!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Where are the runs?
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They've gone five innings without scoring in Boston, and in the same time they've gone close to six without scoring in Houston. Did someone turn off the run machine?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 13th
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Kapler lines out to Loaiza to start the inning.

Update: Varitek grounds out to short.

Update: Mueller flies out to shallow left, and there's almost a collision between Matsui and Jeter.

The Red Sox must be really tired if they can't score off Loaiza. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
No-no No More
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Backe loses the no-hitter to a single by Womack. Still no score in the top of the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)

Sheffield strikes out, but Varitek can't handle the pitch, and Sheffield reaches on the passed ball.

Update: Sheffield is out on a Matsui fielder's choice. Man on first for Williams.

Update: With two out, another ball gets by Varitek, allowing Matsui to reach 2nd. Posada is walked with first open, and Wakefield will face Sierra.

Update: Another passed ball by Varitek. Mirabelli usually catches Wakefield. 2-2 to Sierra.

Update: Wakefield strikes out Sierra swinging! If Tim is goig to be in there for the duration, the Sox may want to think about putting Mirabelli in behind the plate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Monday Night Baseball
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A 13 inning game on one channel, and no-hitter on the other, how could anyone be watching Monday Night Football this evening?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 12th
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Manny's up against Loaiza. He takes ball one.

Update: Manny pops up to third. Ortiz gets to swing against Esteban.

Update: Ortiz walks on a pitch that looked too close to take. Good eye by Ortiz. Again, the early pinch-running comes back to haunt the Sox as two weak hitter follow Ortiz, and they're not pinch running for Ortiz now.

Update: Ortiz tries to steal. It was a bad throw, a high tag, and he still was out. I think he was safe, but it was a stupid move. Any kind of a good throw, and he's out by a mile. I wonder if Mientkiewicz missed the hit and run?

Mientkiewicz strikes out. On to the Baker's Dozen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Perfecto No More
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Edmonds walks to end the perfect game. Still no score in the top of the 5th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Wakefield Time
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Tim Wakefield comes out for the 12th. I think he's in for the duration, as Loaiza may be. The Yankees better score here; I can't see Estaban getting the heart of the Red Sox order without allowing a run.

Update: After getting Clark, Cairo hits a single to Manny that gets by the leftfielder, and Miguel winds up at 2nd. Cairo, once again, may play the role of lousy hitting 2nd baseman who is a post-season hero for the Yankees.

Jeter lines out to Kapler in right. Kapler had him played perfectly.

Update: Manny gets off the hook as A-Rod flies out to center on the first pitch. He'll try to win the game leading off in the bottom of the 12th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 12th
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Mueller drops one between Sheffield and Cairo to lead off the 12th with a single. Sheffield's defense, which I thought was pretty good during the season, has left something to be desired tonight.

Update: Man, if you are going to have as bad a series as Bellhorn is having, you should at least be able to get a bunt down. Mark fouls off the first two trying to sacrifice.

Update: Bellhorn singles after failing to bunt. Maybe he should have been swinging to begin with. :-)

Update: Damon tries to lay down the bunt, but he pops out to Posada! The announcers think Posada should have let it drop for a DP, but I'm one of those who thinks, take the sure out.

Quantrill is injured somehow, and Loaiza is coming out of the pen. He'll face Cabrera and Manny, unless he can get a DP. Men on 1st and 2nd, 1 out.

Update: Loaiza gets the DP! We're going to the dozenth inning for the 2nd night in a row!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Still Perfect
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Backe has retired 12 in a row. The NLCS game may end before the ALCS game does.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Turning Bernie
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The Red Sox burn another lefty, bringing in Embree to face Bernie Williams. I'm not sure this is such a good idea, giving Bernie and Posada an easier shot at the wall.

Update: Bernie goes the other way and singles to right-center.

Update: Posada strikes out. Now Sierra gets a shot at the wall.

Update: Sierra strikes out! A great job by Embree. I keep wondering if we're going to see Schilling for a batter if it's a game situation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Meanwhile, Back in the NL
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A real pitcher's duel in the NLCS tonight. Backe has retired the first nine batters, and Williams has only allowed a single and a walk. It's 0-0 after three. However, the Astros are working Williams, forcing him to throw 45 pitches so far, while Backe has only thrown 29.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:37 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
I'm Verklempt
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The Red Sox bring in Mike Myers for the 11th. I don't quite understand this. Why not let Arroyo pitch until he drops? There's no telling how long this game will go. Eventually, you'll have to put Wakefield in there forever.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 10th
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Ortiz up, Heredia on the mound. I doubt Felix will be in for more than one batter.

Update: Heredia strikes out Ortiz on a check swing. I think the third base ump was making up for the lousy call by the first base ump in the last inning. Heredia staying in to face Man-cave-ich.

Update: Mientkiewicz lines one into deep right. Sheffield either didn't see it well or just miss played it, and it bounces into the stands for a double. That's it for Heredia, as he does half his job. Quantrill is in to face Kapler. The pinch runner may hurt the Sox here, as Gabe is a weak hitter compared to Nixon.

Update: Quantrill gets Kapler to ground out to 2nd. Man on third, two out, Mueller on deck. Pick your poison.

Update: This one goes to eleven as Varitek pops out to Jeter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Then Came Bronson
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Bronson Arroyo comes on in the tenth, and the results are much different than Saturday night. He gets Jeter to pop out, then K's A-Rod and Sheffield. To the bottom of the tenth, and David Ortiz can be the hero against the NY Goliath.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Backe the USSR
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Brandon Backe is treating the good and the bad in the St. Louis order the same tonight. It's six up, six down, with three strikeouts, including Walker and Rolen. Twenty-one pitches through two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Woody's Will
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Woody Williams gives up a hit in the first but only throws nine pitches. Both starters know they have to go deep into the game tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Rivera is still in the game, facing the top of the order. Damon gets a broken bat infield single to start the inning. Sometimes it's good not to hit the ball hard.

Update: Damon is caught stealing! Cabrera had squared to bunt, but pulled back. Don't know if that was a sac hit and run or Damon decided to run on his own. The dark side of one-run strategies. Cabrera grounds out, it's up to Manny.

Update: Manny flies out to center after a gift check swing call. Once agian, to extra innings!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Flipping Channels
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The Cardinals-Astros game is underway. Backe gets the side in order in the top of the first, throwing only 10 pitches. That's exactly what the Astros need tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
High Sierra
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Ruben Sierra reaches for the fifth time tonight. With two outs, Tony Clark, who hasn't come close to reaching base will try to extend the inning.

Update: Clark is so big it's hard for any ball over the plate not to be a strike.

Update: Clark hits a fly down the line in right that bounces into the stands for a double. If it stays fair, Sierra scores with two outs.

Update: Cairo is up. Don't they have a pinch hitter? He pops up foul to the first baseman to end the threat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Don't Worry About the Base Runner
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This last AB by Nixon was a great example of why pitchers shouldn't concern themselves with baserunners. With Roberts at first, obviously trying to steal, Gordon kept throwing over and stepping off and holding the ball. By the time he tried pitching to Nixon, he ended up falling behind 3-1. That's the pitch Roberts chose to run on, and Nixon got a great pitch to hit, which he lined for a single. Now there are runners on first and third with no outs, and Rivera has to pitch a two inning save again.

The great ones didn't worry about runners. They knew if they got the batter out, nothing too bad would happen.

Update: Varitek hits a sac fly to center to tie the game. Mariano blows the tough save opportunity.

Update: Rivera gets the three batters he faces. He could be perfect tonight and still be stuck with the blown save.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
One-Run Game
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David Ortiz homers to start the 8th inning. The failure of the Red Sox leadoff men to get on in this series keeps Manny and Ortiz from doing a lot of damage. It's 4-3 as Gordon walks Millar to put the tying run on base, and like last night, Roberts will pinch run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Ring My Bell, Blow Your Horn
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Mark Bellhorn leads off the bottom of the 7th with a double, and that will be it for Mike Mussina. Bellhorn has had a tough series, so it's nice to see him get a big hit.

Update: After getting Damon to pop out, Sturtze walks Cabrera to bring Manny Ramirez to the plate as the go-ahead run. Sturtze will not face Ramirez.

Update: Gordon comes in and gets Ramirez to ground into a double play. Manny only has 1 extra-base hit in the ALCS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Broken Bones
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Fox just announced that Julian Tavarez broke two bones in his left hand. That makes the Cardinal bullpen a little less deep. With the injury to Kline, a Cardinal strength is turning into a weakness.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ouch!
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Pedro just hit Cairo with two out to load the bases for Jeter. Martinez is just about at 100 pitches. Jeter's looked bad at the plate all game, 0 for 3 with 2 K.

Update: On exactly the 100th pitch of the game, Jeter gets a base hit just down the right field line to clear the bases and give the Yankees a 4-2 lead. They give Jeter credit for a double, and he's on third on the throw home. Cairo had a great slide to score the third run.

A-Rod is hit by a pitch. Pedro is losing it here, and so are the Red Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Through Five
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After five innings, the starters are both bending but not breaking. They get men on, but they get out of the inning. Both have thrown a lot of pitches, however; Pedro is at 82, Mussina is at 84. How much longer before we see a break down?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:05 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Through Three
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After three, Mussina and Pedro aren't that far apart. Moose has given up 1 more hit and struck out 1 more batter. Both have walked two, but Pedro's given up a HR. Both of these pitchers are doing well, but not great. And both are throwing a good number of pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Fooling Jeter
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Pedro is making Jeter look bad this evening. He's struck him out twice now, and Jeter hasn't come close to looking good on a pitch.

Update: Jeter makes an error in the bottom of the third. I haven't had much to complain about this year with Jeter's defense, but you see a play like that and you have to wonder how long he'll stay at this important defensive position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)
Better Mussina
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Mussina gets the Sox 1-2-3 in the 2nd. He'll have Manny leading of in the 3rd, again limiting the damage Mr. Ramirez can do.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Deep First Pitches
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Bernie Williams leads off the 2nd inning by hitting the first pitch down the right field line for a homer. Matsui ended the 1st by taking Pedro's first pitch to the wall in right center. Maybe that's the way to get Pedro; take that first pitch deep.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:42 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Mike's a Mess
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Mussina does not have it this afternoon. He's given up three hits, a walk and one run so far. He has the bases loaded with only 1 out in the bottom of the first.

Meanwhile, apart from the five pitch walk to A-Rod, Martinez looked very good, getting both Jeter and Sheffield to strikeout on three pitches.

Update: Varitek has decided to bat from the right side against Mussina today. He's up with the bases loaded with two out.

Update: Mussina finally gets out of the inning, striking out Mueller. He threw 34 pitches.
Update: It works. Varitek draws a walk to push the 2nd run of the inning across.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:31 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
More Shameless Plugs
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I've been busy the last two weeks working with the terrific crew at Baseball Info Solutions helping to put together The Bill James Handbook: 2005. It's a great resource for your fantasy scouting. The book also allows you to spend the winter exploring players in depth, since


  1. It's available November 1.

  2. It has all the stats!


There also are statistics that look at managerial strategy, win shares, lefty/righty and new material from Bill James. Order now so it's on your self Nov. 1.

Baseball Info Solutions now has season final and lefty/righty stats available for download. Just stop by our store and pick up what you need!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM | Books • | Statistics | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Kudos to the Red Sox for not giving up yesterday. After the drubbing they took on Saturday, and after seeing their lead yesterday disappear in minutes on balls a that couldn't get out of the infield, they perservered. I got the feeling the Boston fans were on the verge of saying, "Why did we root for this team so much? Why did we let ourselves be fooled again?" Even if they don't go on to win the ALCS, last night redeemed the team's image.

It's the M&M matchup today in Boston as Mike Mussina takes the mound against Pedro Martinez. Since we all now know the answer to the question, "Who's your daddy?" one might expect a Yankees victory this afternoon. Mussina is well rested, and might be the only Yankees player who is. The last two nights had to be draining to both teams, and the quick turnaround is going to leave players bleary eyed. Mussina baffled the Red Sox until the 7th in game 1. He'll need another performance like that tonight, minus the falling apart late. Martinez pitched more than well enough to win in game 2. It's also cold, which should make batting more painful.

I wonder about the status of Rivera as well. I agree that the 8th was the right inning to bring him into the game, but I wonder if the 9th couldn't have been left to someone else. It was the bottom of the order due up, and you would think Quantrill or Gordon could have handled them. Will Torre ask Rivera to go two more innings tonight?

It nice to see that Jeter remembers how to take a walk. A lot was made of his slow start this season and how his batting average recovered. But what wasn't noticed by many was the depression of his OBA as he eschewed the walk to try to get hits. He had the worst OBA of his career, but not his worst batting average. So far, in the post season he's concentrating on getting on base, and has a .390 OBA despite just hitting .265.

Game 5 of the NLCS rematches Woody Williams and Brandon Backe. (We have MM, WW and BB going tonight. Too bad Pedro's first name isn't Maurice.) Backe only lasted 4 2/3 innings in game 1, throwing the defense to the mercy of the Astros middle relief corps. At this point, Garner has to realize there are two relievers he can count on; Wheeler and Lidge. Backe needs to go at least six full tonight to give the Astros a chance. Houston has proven they can score against the Cardinals; the seemingly invincible Cardinals bullpen has been hit for a 6.23 ERA in this series.

So can Backe survive against the big four long enough to keep his team in the game? And will Williams be the first Cardinals starter to pitch better than okay? It's going to be another late night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 12th
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The Yankees don't score in the top of the inning. Manny, Oritz and Nixon to bat.

Update: Manny singles off Quantrill to start the 12th.

Update: Ortiz wins it with a HR into the bullpen in right! The Red Sox get to play again today! (I guess this doesn't count as a double header.) A long draining game for both teams, and I don't think anyone left the park.

It's only the 6th time in 26 series that a team down 3-0 did not get swept. Mussina vs. Pedro in 16 hours. All those people who didn't get to go on Friday now have a game to attend!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:20 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
To the 12th
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The Yankees get out of the 11th with the score still tied. To the 12th!

Update: Posada breaks his bat and bloops a single to right.

Update: Sierra grounds out off the pitcher, but avoids the DP and gets Posada to 2nd.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:09 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Yankees 11th
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Cairo leads off with a single.

Update: Jeter bunts Cairo to 2nd. I'd let Jeter hit.

Update: A-Rod lines out. It seemed to me that Cabrera was more interested in showing the ball than seeing where the runner was. If he had spun and thrown he would have had a double play.

Sheffield walks.

Update: Myers coming on to face Matsui.

Update: Myers walks Matsui on four pitches to load the bases. Leskanic coming in to try to get Williams.

Update: Leskanic gets Williams to fly out to center. Can the Red Sox win this inning?

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:42 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 10th
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The Red Sox hold the Yankees scoreless in the 10th. They're up with another chance to extend the series.

Update: Gordon gets the side in order in the 10th. To the 11th!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:31 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the 9th
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Rivera faces Millar leading off the 9th.

Update: Millar walks to lead off the 9th.

Update: Roberts running for Millar, and he steals 2nd.

Upate: Mueller grounds a hard single up the middle! Roberts scores and the Red Sox tie the game at 4. Rivera blows the save.

Update: Mientkiewicz hits for Bellhorn and sacrifices Mueller to 2nd. Now Damon has a chance to win the game.

Update: Damon grounds to Clark, who bobbles the ball for an error. Sox now have two chances to score the run, one of them being Manny.

Update: Rivera strikes out Cabrera on three pitches. It comes down to Manny.

Update: Rivera is pitching carefully to Manny, and the count is 3-0.

Update: Rivera comes back with two strikes to run the count to 3-2.

Update: Rivera walks Manny after a foul on a pitch up and in. The season now hangs on Ortiz.

Update: Rivera gets ahead 0-2 on Ortiz.

Update: Ortiz pops up to 2nd. To extra innings! The Red Sox never make it easy on their fans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:01 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
October 17, 2004
Rivera in the 8th
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Torre has decided the time for the save is now. Manny and Ortiz are leading off the 8th, and Ramirez singles to start the inning off Mariano Rivera.

Update: Mo strikes out O on four pitches.

Update: Tony Clark's height comes in handy at first as a chopper by Varitek would have gone over many heads. Instead, Jason is out at first, and Manny is at 2nd with 2 outs.

Update: Nixon grounds out to first as well. Rivera will have the 7-8-9 hitters in the 9th for the pennant.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:35 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Extra! Extra! Extra!
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Matsui triples with 1 out to chase Lowe from the game. Matsui now has 8 extra-base hits in the 4 games, and with the double and triple, half the cycle tonight.

Update: The Red Sox defense betrays them again. With the infield in, a chopper hit by Williams is hit so slowly that neither Cabrera nor Mueller can field it. This time, Matsui scores (the infield in worked in the 2nd inning). The score is tied 3-3 as the Yankees answer the challenge once again.

Update: Infield hits by Sierra and Clark score Posada and the Yankees take a 4-3 lead. It could have been 5-3 in Williams had not been thrown out trying to advance on a pitch that got away from Varitek.

Update: Timlin finally gets out of the inning by getting Jeter to ground out. It's 4-3 Yankees with Sturtze coming in to pitch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Cabrera Strategy Works
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Orlando Cabrera, batting 2nd, gets an RBI single in the 5th. It came after two walks and two outs from Hernandez. He's facing Manny now, and I suspect that Manny may be the last batter the pitching Orlando faces.

Update: Hernandez walks Ramirez to load the bases. David Ortiz up now, and the manager has not made a move yet.

Update: Ortiz comes through. A solid single scores two and gives the Red Sox a 3-2 lead.

Update: Hernandez strikes out Varitek to end the inning. So far, the Yankees offense has responded to every Red Sox challenge. Lowe has thrown 80 pitches through five, so if he throws another 18 this inning, it may be his last.
Update: Hernandez still in there. He's facing Varitek.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
He Could Have Hit That for the Red Sox
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Alex Rodriguez draws first blood in game 4 of the Yankees-Red Sox series. He hits a two-run homer after Jeter singles off Bill Mueller. And he hit it over everything.

Earlier, I was trying to find examples of teams even partially coming back from 3-0 deficits. In looking at seven game World Series, I could only find two instances where a team won game four after losing the first three in the first ten series that went 3-0. If teams are evenly matched, they should be about 5-5 in game 4 after 3-0. This tells me one of two things:


  1. The team that gets ahead 3-0 is really a superior team (or at least matches up really well against the opponent).
  2. A 3-0 is psychologically draining on the losing team.


I tend to believe 1 more than 2. Professional athletes, in my opinion, are just too competitive to be driven down by a series of losses.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Grandpa Gone
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Robert Jacoby reports that Ray Boone has passed away.


Boone played from 1948-60 with six teams and was followed into the big leagues by son Bob and grandsons Bret and Aaron.

"We were the first three-generation family," Pat Boone said. "We're not the only one, but we were the first."


My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 PM | Deaths | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Change of Order
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Wow. They've moved Bellhorn to the 9th spot and Cabrera to 2nd in the Red Sox order. They're ignoring long term trends in favor of short term success. Very un-Theo like.