Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 30, 2005
Lancing the Diamondbacks
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Lance Niekro is a big reason the Giants are off to an 8-0 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. He's gone two for two, hitting his 9th double and home run. Niekro is a low OBA, high power hitter. That's fine, and batting 6th is a perfect place for that type of split. He's better at finishing an offensive rally than starting it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Francis Comes Through
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Jeff Francis gave the Rockies six strong innings tonight in St. Louis, leaving the game with a 5-0 lead. He allowed just three hits and 2 walks while striking out six. Francis' road record is very poor this season; his ERA is 3.50 at Coors, and entering today, 7.21 on the road. He's lowered that to 6.34 tonight. The score might even be higher if not for four double plays turned by the Cardinals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Penn Running Dry
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It's pretty clear Hayden Penn is not ready for the major leagues yet. Hayden gave up 5 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings tonight. He doesn't go deep in games, and too often he gives up too many runs. He's now given up 25 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings for a 6.75 ERA. He's walked 19 while striking out only 14. He only had one game in which he pitched very well, and that was against Colorado in Baltimore. At 20 years old, however, there's plenty of time for him to develop into a star. He just hasn't shown any indication of greatness at this level yet. He looks like he needs more seasoning in the minors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MLB to Decide Rogers Fate
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I didn't know there were jurisdictions in baseball.

The Rangers talked with MLB on Thursday. Because the incident occurred on the field, MLB has jurisdiction. A decision on possible discipline is expected Friday, Texas owner Tom Hicks said.

"At this point there's nothing the Texas Rangers will or can do," Hicks said. "We will support whatever the commissioner decides."

So it's all up to Bud and his Buddies. Of course, it doesn't mean the Rangers can do nothing. I would not be surprised to see Rogers moved to another team. Most teams want to have good relations with the media that cover them. Moving Kenny would help restore that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 PM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Hope and Crosby
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The Athletics won again this afternoon, defeating the Seattle Mariners 6-2. Bobby Crosby batted cleanup today and went 2 for 3 with a walk and his fourth homer. He's now batting .337 with a .400 OBA and a .558 slugging percentage. The A's are 19-8 when Crosby plays, 19-32 without him. It looks like his injury cost the A's quite a few games; with him playing all year they very well might be in the thick of the wild card race.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:12 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Slugging Rangers
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Kenny Rogers isn't the only Ranger who can hit. Texas belted eight home runs this afternoon, riding the Angels out of town on a rail 18-5. Kevin Mench was the big bopper, blasting three out of the park and driving in five runs. Mark Teixeira added a pair of two-run shots himself. This is the second time they've hit eight in a game this year (May 21) and it's the club record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Washington Wins Again
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Chad Cordero earned his 28th save in 30 attempts this afternoon, preserving a 7-5 Nationals victory over the Pirates. Cordero didn't make it easy on himself, giving up a single and a double to start the inning. John Wetteland was a master of the "heart-attack" save in 1996 for the Yankees. Starting the inning with no one on isn't tough enough, so these relievers like to make it a challenge. :-)

After a fly out and a strikeout, the Pirates still had runners at 2nd and 3rd. After an intentional walk to Ward, Doumit flied out to end the game. A scary inning for the Nationals faithful, but a win nonetheless. Opponents are now batting .122 (5 for 41) vs. Cordero with men in scoring position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:01 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rough Day at Wrigley
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It's not the best day to be a pitcher at Wrigley Field. Greg Maddux has gone five innings so far, allowing 10 hits and six runs. Chris Capuano isn't doing much better, allowing five runs and seven hits. Overall, batters in the game are 17 for 42 (.405) through 4 1/2 innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:50 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pulling Martinez
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I don't quite understand this. Pedro Martinez pitches six innings, throwing 99 pitches, 69 for strikes. With the Mets holding a 5-2 lead in the bottom of 6th, Pedro is due up with none on and two out. Randolph lifts him for Victor Diaz, who makes an out. The Phillies get three hits off the Mets relievers in the 7th and close the score to 5-3.

Is Pedro no longer allowed to go over 100 pitches? I know he's fragile, but he should be able to throw 110 to 120 pitches once in a while.

Update: The Mets hold on and get Pedro the win, only his second day time decision this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:18 PM | Games | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Powers of 2
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Kip Wells has a great line so far:

2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:03 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Death to Batting Average!
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When sports writers start calling for batting average to be put to death as a statistic, you know the times are changing. Joe Posnanski does that today:

But wherever we turn, batting average has to go. Batting average is the horse and buggy. It is black-and-white television. Its time has passed. I don’t know how we go about getting rid of it, though. Lately, Congress has shown a lot of interest in baseball; maybe we could get them to forget about steroids and pass a constitutional amendment.

“I think this is too important an issue to be dealt with by trivial measures like a constitutional amendment,” Bill James said. “That’s just putting a Band-Aid on it.”

I agree with the article mostly. Batting average does have one good use, and that's awarding batting championships. Batting average recognizes that the game, in the fans view, is about hitting. It rewards players who get lots of hits, but it also doesn't hurt players who draw lots of walks. If you have two players with 600 PA and 200 hits, the one who walks more gets the higher batting average. So if you don't walk much, you needs lots more hits to win a batting title (see Ichiro Suzuki or Tony Gwynn). Those hits are more valuable than the other person's walks, so batting average does a nice job of balancing the two.

It's just a poor tool for rating player's ability. If batting average does die, I won't be sorry.

Thanks to Brian Hipp for the pointer to the article.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Statistics | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
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Jon Lieber returns to New York to face the Mets and Pedro Martinez this afternoon. Lieber got off to a great start, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in April, but since his record is 4-6 with an ERA twice his April number. Meanwhile, Pedro is being Pedro for the Mets; great record, great ERA, lots of strikeouts and he pitched well against the Yankees. This will be Pedro's seventh start under sunlight. He's only received one decision during the day (he's 1-0). That's surprising because the Mets offense is much better during the day (5.3 runs per game day, 4.1 at night). Pedro must have gotten the Mets of their bad days.

Enjoy!

You can buy tickets for this and all other games at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 AM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Know When to Fold Them
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Kenny Rogers attacked two cameramen last night. One was taken to a hospital on a stretcher (Fox has a video link of the incident).

This wasn't Randy Johnson being surprised by a reporter jumping out of the bushes, or Tim Belcher being upset after a bad game. This was a premeditated act of violence over rumors in the press. You would think at 40 years old and 17 years in the majors Rogers would have a little more maturity.

I don't see how the Rangers can keep The Gambler at this point. He deserves a huge fine and a huge suspension. I won't be at all surprised if he's arrested and charged with assault.

I also wonder what's really going on here. At this point in his life, he should be secure money wise. According to Baseball Reference (scroll down), he's made over $55 million dollars over his career. Is he really that competitive that a lack of a contract extension, the release of a friend, and rumors in the media sends him off the deep end? I'm clueless here. He just threw away his career for no good reason.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (6) | TrackBack (1)
LAnaheim
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I'm going to start referring to the city name of the Angels as LAnaheim. Every time I want to refer to the Angels by their place name I end up typing Anaheim, then having to change it. I never know, however, what to type instead. Los Angeles isn't complete. Los Angeles of Anaheim is awkward. I sometimes do LA/Anaheim, but this is a bit shorter and makes fun of the whole naming debacle. So from now on, they're the LAnaheim Angels here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Team Movements | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
A's Plus
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The Oakland Athletics appear to have corrected their early season problems and are on a 14-4 streak since June 10. The offense, which was amazingly weak, has scored 101 runs over their last 18 games. Take a look at the batters over this time period. All the regulars save Swisher are getting on base, and Swisher is making up for his lack of OBA with power.

On the pitching side, the young guns of Harden, Blanton and Saarloos have been pretty unhittable, despite the fact that they're not striking out many batters. Zito still is near the bottom of the pack in ERA, but in the last 18 games he's post a 3.55 mark. Teams will take that from their fifth best starter any day.

And the A's finally gained a game on LAnaheim (that's it!) last night. The Angels are 13-5 over the same time period. It may be difficult for Oakland to win the west with the hole they've dug for themselves, but they're only six games out of the wild card.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Dose of Data
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2005
Hurting the Tigers
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Frank Thomas goes deep in the 13th inning to give the White Sox a 4-3 lead. Thomas now has eight home runs in 52 at bats, one every 6.5 at bats. According to the broadcast, he also set the franchise record for runs scored at 1320.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | Games | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
A's Rolling Again
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The Athletics are off to a good start tonight, scoring four runs so far tonight and they're still in the second inning. Nick Swisher hit his 9th homer of the season; during this 13-4 run for the A's Swisher hasn't hit for average nor gotten on base much, but his few hits have gone a long way. The solo shot gives him six homers and 14 RBI over the last 18 Oakland games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Utley and Rollins
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At what point do the Phillies swap Rollins and Utley in the order? Rollins, with almost 3000 career at bats, pretty much proved he doesn't get on base much. His career OBA is .324, and this season it's below .320. Utley, finally given a chance to play every day, is posting a .380 OBA. He's 1 for 2 tonight with a walk to raise it to .384. Chase should be batting second behind Michaels. That does a better job of setting up the heart of the order, plus Michaels being on base will make good use of Utley's power.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 PM | Offense | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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There were server problems tonight, so the Baseball Musings Radio Show did not go out live. However, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pudge Punched
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Pudge Rodriguez just struck out with the bases loaded and nobody out in a game tied 3-3 in the 8th. He's upset, and he should be. Dmitri Young walked to load the bases. Politte looked wild. So instead of waiting to see if Politte can throw a strike, Ivan goes up swinging at the first pitch. That's one of my big pet peeves. Let the pitcher be wild! Instead, he swings at a pitch in his eyes, then at two more out of the strikezone. Monroe follows with a double play, and a chance to bury the White Sox goes by the board. Bad process, Ivan!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | Offense | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Embarassing Play
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The Cincinnati Reds played embarassing defense in the 2nd inning against the Cardinals tonight. It seemed every time they touched the ball something went wrong. Jason Romano is playing center field. Reggie Sanders hit a ball to the warning track in center, and instead of getting under it, Romano tried to reach out from the side. He was totally fooled, and the ball bounced into the stands for a ground rule double. It's one of those hits that the rules don't call an error, but it really was poor defense.

Later in the inning, Felipe Lopez throws two balls away. Neither looked like a difficult play. The big difference I see between major league and minor league games is the fielding. Tonight, the Reds are fielding like minor leaguers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM | Defense | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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Just a reminder that the Basball Musings Radio Show is coming up at the top of the hour. I hope you'll tune in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cameron for Sheffield?
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I've been hearing rumors about this all day. One of my commentors reports that this was Omar making the noise and Cashman said no. If the Yankees are going to trade Sheffied for a center fielder, they should get a very young, very good one, not Mike Cameron who they'll have to replace in a couple of years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:06 PM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Ouch-io!
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Craig Biggio broke the modern hit by pitch record when he was plunked today. The Astros won the game 7-1 as Oswalt when seven shutout innings for the victory. He's now 2-0 in his career at Coors.

I thought this was appropriate:

Biggio was hit on the padding guarding his right elbow during the fourth inning of Houston's game against the Rockies, marking the 268th time he's been plunked, the post-1900 record.

The only padding I remember Baylor using were his giant muscles.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | Records | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
D.J. Spins a Gem
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D.J. Carrasco went 6 2/3 innings today to earn a win over the Minnesota Twins. With enough innings his 3.23 ERA would put him in the top 10 in the American League. He's mostly keeping runs off the board by keeping the ball in the park. In 55 2/3 innings, he's only given up 2 home runs.

He's not striking out batters, however. His K total is a mere 22 in 55 2/3 innings. At some point, all those balls in play are going to catch up to the righty.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Wood's Return
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That's the Kerry Wood everyone knows and loves. Six innings, nine strikeouts, two walks and one run allowed. He won't get the decision as the score is tied at 2 in the 7th, but with Prior and Wood both having good comeback outings, things are looking up for the Cubs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:15 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Moonlight Becomes You
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Tom Elia points me to this article on the 100th anniversary of Moonlight Graham's only major league appearance. The movie Field of Dreams it which Graham figures prominently, may be the only tear-jerker that makes men cry and not women.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:34 PM | Players | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Towering Over the Devil Rays
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In a fast moving game, Josh Towers has not allowed a hit through five innings against Tampa Bay. His only mistake was hitting Nick Green with a pitch. He's struck out five, and 43 of his 62 pitches have been strikes. The Jays lead 6-0.

Update: Towers still has the no-hitter through six innings. He threw an 11 pitch sixth inning, 8 for strikes, and now has seven strikeouts.

Update: Huff breaks up the no-hitter with out in the 7th, reaching on a single. It's now 8-0 Toronto.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight and every Wednesday at 8 PM EDT. Check out their other sports programming as well. You can listen at any one of these links:

Listen:

You can also call in at 888-985-0555 and leave a question for the show, or stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer them on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Kerry Wood returns to the Cubs rotation this afternoon as Chicago host the Brewers and Ben Sheets. Wood missed two months with a strained right shoulder. Wood had control problems before the injury; he struck out 33 in 26 1/3 innings, but walked 14. Batters were hitting Kerry for power, as they combined to slug .535 vs. the righty. After three good starts, Sheets was roughed up by the Cubs last week in an 8-7 Milwaukee win. Sheets is having great success vs. lefties this season, while right-handers are giving him problems. In the same number of at bats, righties have seven more hits and double the homers (8-4).

The Astros send Roy Oswalt to the mound in Colorado vs. Byung-Hyun Kim. Kim ERA as a starter in Colorado this season is 2.78. Maybe the key to success at Coors is an unusual delivery. Roy's only pitched one game at Coors in his career, but it was a good one, allowing just 3 runs in seven innings.

Finally, the Athletics try to make it six in a row against the Mariners this evening. Ryan Franklin faces Kirk Saarloos. Kirk is having an excellent June, posting a 3-0 record and a 2.08 ERA despite just seven strikeouts in 26 innings. In nine games vs. the A's this season, the Mariners are batting just .239.

Enjoy!

You can find great seats for these and other sporting events, shows and concerts at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store. Tickets for the All-Star Game and festivities are on sale now!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Missing Ryan?
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Kevin Sherrington of the Dalls Morning News notes how the Rangers went down hill after releasing Ryan Drese:

Bulletin: Ryan Drese beat Pittsburgh, 2-1, Tuesday. In his three starts for the Nationals, he's gone eight innings twice and given up one earned run in 16 innings.

No wonder Rogers is so mad. Maybe you remember he was the first man in Showalter's office after the news that Drese had been released.

Drese and Rogers were pals. But even teammates who weren't as close were shocked that the club would cut loose its opening day pitcher.

Win now, is how management explained it. Only the Rangers are 6-13 since Drese got the ax, and they're falling faster and faster.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Invading Baltimore
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The Baltimore Sun looks at the phenomenon of Yankees fans invading Camden Yards for the NY-Baltimore series.

Fans in Derek Jeter's No. 2 pinstripes often outnumber those wearing Miguel Tejada's orange-and-white No. 10. When an Orioles pitcher gives up a hit, the crowd doesn't go silent, it erupts. If fact, if someone were to close his eyes and just listen after Orioles outfielder Larry Bigbie made the final out of Monday's game, a 6-4 Yankees victory, it would be easy, based on the roar alone, to imagine they were four hours north, crammed into the bleachers of Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The only thing missing was the sound of Frank Sinatra, whose version of "New York, New York" is blasted from the stadium speakers after each Yankees home win.

My college roommates and I are going to have a small reunion this summer. We wanted to go to Boston, but opted for a Red Sox game at Camden Yards instead.

It isn't just Yankees fans, of course, filling up Camden Yards. In recent years, more and more Red Sox fans are making the trip south simply because Boston has both the smallest ballpark in the league (Fenway, which seats only 35,095 people) and the highest ticket prices in baseball (an average of $44.56). But it still pales in comparison to the sheer number of Yankees fans, who travel from both north and south to follow their team.

With Boston and Baltimore vying for the AL East crown, the game a week from Saturday should be a lot of fun.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 AM | Attendance | Comments (5) | TrackBack (1)
Common Sense
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A nice profile of Leo Mazzone in The State. Here's something I've never understood:

Although rarely copied by other organizations, Mazzone’s principles for pitching are rather simple. He believes the first-pitch, low-and-away fastball is the best pitch in baseball, and he believes pitchers should throw as often as possible from the mound with few days off.

“It’s commonsense, really,” is one of Mazzone’s favorite lines, and when you sit in the Braves’ dugout with him before a game, you have to understand there is nothing complicated about what he is going to tell you.

It's amazing to me that after more than a decade of success, every team doesn't have their pitchers throwing from the mound two or three times between starts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 AM | Pitchers | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
West Coast Roundup
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Roger Clemens can't seem to catch a break this season. He pitches seven 1-run innings at Coors, but the bullpen blows a 5-1 lead in the 8th to leave Roger with a no-decision. Garrett Atkins becomes the 2nd Garret(t) A. to slam his team to victory last night.

The San Francisco Giants broke their four game losing streak with a blowout of the Diamondbacks. The Giants bullpen was the story last night, pitching three shutout innings after a decent six inning start by Jason Schmidt. The game was close until the 9th, when the Giants scored six runs to make the final 11-3.

The Padres extended their lead to four games in the NL West with an 8-3 victory over the Dodgers. Giles and Fick led the offense with Giles scoring twice and Fick driving in three. The Dodgers are now 4-11 over their last 15 games. I wonder how long before the Dodgers start making moves to shore up this under performing team?

Finally, the Oakland Athletics made it five in a row, trouncing the Mariners 8-1. Barry Zito allowed a leadoff home run to Ichiro Suzuki, but that was it for the evening. Bobby Crosby continues to be a force in the order, reaching base four times and scoring twice to raise his OBA to .383. The Athletics offense is starting to look like a Beane offense; seven of the nine hitters last night had OBA's above league average. They're averaging six runs a game over their last 10 games in which they are 9-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:59 AM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wednesday Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:40 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2005
Vlad or Garret?
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To whom would you pitch? With right-hander Kameron Loe on the mound, and men on 2nd and 3rd, Showalter elected to walk Vlad Guerrero with none out in the top of the 11th. He then brough in the left Shouse to pitch to Garret Anderson. It's the move every manager and every sabermetrician would make. Shouse's 2nd pitch just makes the stands for an Anderson grand slam.

While the game isn't over, this will be a tough loss for Texas if it ends this way. John Wasdin made his first start of the year, and it was a dandy, going eight innings and allowing just one run. He should be getting the win, but Washburn and the Angels bullpen matched the Rangers staff this evening.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Strategy | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Battle of the Bullpens, Part II
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Earlier tonight I pointed out that a battle of the bullpens between Boston and Cleveland would favor Cleveland. The results are in, and after a shakey start, the Cleveland pen prevailed as Timlin and Foulke combined to blow a three-run lead as the Indians take the game 12-8. After Rhodes poor performance, Miller and Wickman managed to go 3 1/3 innings without being charged with a run. The Indians remain a game back of Baltimore in the wild card race.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Roberts Rules
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Mike Stanton threw only one pitch in relief tonight as Brian Roberts took it deep to beat the Yankees 5-4 in 10 innings. After Roberts' great home run start, he's returned to more normal levels. This was only his 2nd homer in June and the 13th of the season. He's now hit more home runs this season than in the first four years of his career.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Not Quite Complete
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Usually when Roy Halladay allows 1 run over nine innings, he get the win. But tonight, that was just good enough to send the Blue Jays into extra innings vs. the Devil Rays. The Blue Jays ended up winning it in eleven by a score of 3-1. Doug Waechter pitched 4 2/3 innings of relief and took the loss. It's not clear to me why he was still pitching in the 11th. I assume the Devil Rays pen is blown out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Buehrle Wins 10
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The Buehrle-Robertson match up proved to be an excellent pitching duel, resulting in the 2nd 2-1 decision of the evening. It wasn't Buehrle's best performance of the year; the Tigers worked him well, getting him to throw 112 pitches over only 6 2/3 innings. But the Tigers didn't draw a walk and couldn't do much with their eight hits. A mistake by Robertson to Dye proved to be the game winning homer in the 6th. The White Sox continue their great record in close games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Gods Must be Angry
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The Yankees brass conducted their big meeting this afternoon, but nothing much was released to the public. There was a little excitement during the meeting, however:

A lightning bolt from a strong thunderstorm struck the roof at Legends Field while the meeting was taking place. The strike impacted some electrical systems at the Yankees' spring training park.

Was someone sending George a message? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
To the Bullpen in Boston
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Both the Indians and Red Sox go to the bullpen early. This should favor the Indians as they have a 2.78 ERA vs. 5.08 for Boston relievers. Arthur Rhodes, however, allowed two inherited runners to score and put a few more on to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead. Matt Miller is on to try to get the Tribe out of the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Games | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
The Good Drese
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The impressive Ryan Drese took the mound this evening for the Nationals, and Washington needed him to be good. He allowed just five hits over eight innings, striking out four and allowing just one run. Very similar to his first start with the Nationals against the Angels.

Update: Chad Cordero pitches a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. It's his 13th save of June, tying him for 2nd most saves in a June. John Wetteland had 15 in 1996. Nen had 13 in 2001, Smoltz the same in 2002.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Orange And Black
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Orange and Black Baseball is doing very nice work on covering the Giants. Stop by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lancing the Royals
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The Daily Lancer is a Kansas City Royals blog I discovered today. If you haven't seen it yet, stop by and say hello.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | Blogs | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kenny Rogers Imitates my Daughter
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This is turning into an epidemic. Kenny Rogers' punch of a water cooler on June 17 resulted in a broken hand. He'll join my daughter on the DL (by the way, it's her birthday).

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM | Injuries | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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The Detroit Tigers stand at .500 with 36-36 record and are only four games out of the wild card. Tonight's a good opportunity to prove they belong in the playoff hunt as Nate Robertson host Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox. Robertson is only 3-5 but posesses a good ERA and is coming off a complete game win vs. the Twins. Depite a 2.95 ERA at home, he's yet to win at Comerica Park this season. Buehrle hasn't loss his since 2nd start in April. The lefty's been equally effective vs. batters from both sides of the plate.

Dontrelle Willis once again is called upon to pitch after a loss. He goes for win 13 tonight against the Braves. Jorge Sosa takes the mound for the Braves. Sosa is pitching much better as a starter than as a reliever. Notice how his walks are way down. Dontrelle is on a 19 innings scoreless streak.

Enjoy!

Remember you can find seats for these and many other events at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Matchups | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Perez Kicked Off the Roster
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At some point, major league baseball clubs should institute anger management for all their players. You hear about incidents like this at least once or twice a year:

Oliver Perez's temper has landed him on the disabled list.

On Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates placed their ace lefthander on the 15-day DL with a broken left big toe, which was suffered when he kicked a laundry cart in the clubhouse following his start against St. Louis on Sunday.

Given the way he's pitched this season, "ace" is a very generous title. The Pirates might actually improve with Perez on the DL. He has to be one of the big disappointments of 2005.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Win Shares
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The Baseball Crank uses his established win share levels to look at where the Yankees are underperforming.

Basically, something needs to be done about the pitching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Giant Headache
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Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle sums up the Giants season:

The 2005 Giants are worse than bad. They are excruciating to watch.

Never before could that be said in the Brian Sabean era, but never before in those eight-plus seasons have the Giants strung together a pair of games as malodorous as they did over the weekend in Oakland. After embarrassing themselves in Saturday's five-error debacle, they managed to look worse in Sunday's 16-0 loss, the biggest shutout defeat in San Francisco history.

I wonder how many prospects the Giants can get for Alou?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Oriole Blaming the Umps
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It's a bad sign when a player or a team starts blaming the umps for their failures:

The Orioles have been called for eight balks, most in the majors. Nobody's reacted more angrily than Kline.

"I just think they favor the Yankees all the time," he said. "I'm getting [upset] at that. They suck up to them. They're the cream of the crop."

Yes, that's why the Yankees out-walked the Orioles last night 9-2. The umps want the Yankees to win in Camden Yards. It had nothing to do with the pitching staff's inability to put the ball over the plate.

Jim Palmer didn't think it was a balk last night, and the angle the Orioles broadcast used seemed to confirm that (they were looking from the centerfield camera). But the YES broadcast had Kline in profile, and it was pretty clear from that angle that Kline came out of the set and started his delivery when he stepped back off the rubber. That's a balk. Had he just stepped back from the set position, it would have been legal. But he started his motion first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Dose of Data
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 27, 2005
Speed vs. Power
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The Boston Red Sox did a good job of taking an extra base tonight, going 3 for 3 stealing. The Red Sox are now 18 for 19 in stolen base attempts, close to 95% successful. Unfortunately, steals by themselves don't lead to runs, and the Red Sox haven't followed up so far tonight as they are being shut out through seven innings. While the Indians did not attempt a steal tonight, they have four extra-base hits to Boston's none, and with those come a 7-0 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Don't Shoot Randy Messenger
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All the Marlins reliever did was load the bases. It was de los Santos that gave up the grand slam to Julio Franco. I'll have to find out if that makes Julio the oldest player to ever hit a grand slam.

Update: Dave Vincent of SABR confirms that Julio is the oldest player to hit a grand slam.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Angels of the Evening
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The LA/California/Anaheim/LA Angels waste no time in putting Texas in a hole. The first four batters reached against C.J. Wilson, bringing in two runs. A double play helps stem the tide, but the Angels get three runs in all in the inning. Colon is staked to a lead he is more than capable of holding.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Congressional Intimidation
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Radley Balko points out the lastest Congressional interference in baseball, by the same man who conceived the steroid hearings. (Hat tip, Instapundit.)

Personally, I'd like to see baseball anti-trust exemption removed, just so that Congress would no longer have a good reason to get involved in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 PM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Weak Arm Juan
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Rafael Furcal just scored on a fly ball that any would have stopped most runners from even trying to tag up. Juan Pierre fielded the ball in shallow center field, about as shallow as you can go and still be in center field. He was behind the ball, had his momentum going toward the plate, but released a lollipop throw, and with Furcal's speed it wasn't even close. Juan should be embarassed about that play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:12 PM | Defense | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Keep Rolling
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On May 27th of 2004, the Cardinals started a 3-game winning streak that would propel them to an easy victory in the NL Central. From that date, they are outplaying the majors by a wide margin. Through Sunday's games, the Cardinals are 129-63, fourteen ahead of the next closest team in that time period, the Atlanta Braves (115-77). When the streak started, they were just 23-21, three games behind the Reds. The Reds are 49 1/2 games behind the Cardinals since that date.

How have they managed this stellar .672 winning percentage over more than a full season's worth of games? They have the lowest ERA in the majors by nearly .2 of a run (3.58 to the Twins 3.75). The starters pitched well, third in the majors in ERA, but the bullpen's been unbelievable, posting a 2.76 ERA in that time. The next closet pen belongs to the Angels at 3.44. I'm not a big fan of the constant switching of pitchers, but over the last 13 months La Russa's used it to shut down the opposition.

The offense has the higest BA in the NL over that time (.279) and all the averages are excellent (.349 OBA/ .452 slugging). That's good enough for first in the NL in Runs per game and third in the majors.

The main offensive contributors are here. Ninety-nine home runs between Pujols and Edmonds, 214 RBI and 270 runs scored. A look at the pitching contributors shows the importance of the bullpen. The top four on the list have only allowed 20 home runs in 284 innings.

It's a great run by a great team, and the Cardinals are showing no signs of letting up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Games of the Day
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Two weeks until the All-Star game, and it's all intra-league play from here on in. The Orioles host the Yankees tonight. Both teams are playing poorly; the Yankees are 2-5 over their last seven and the Orioles 1-6. The teams will send Carl Pavano Daniel Cabrera to the mound in a crucial series for both teams. Cabrera's era is three and a half points better at Camden Yards than on the road. Pavano is coming off two starts in which he allowed 11 earned runs in 12 innings.

An important wild card game in Boston as the Indians face the Red Sox. Millwood faces Arroyo. While Boston tries to keep their winning ways alive, the Indians are trying to knock off teams that could compete with them for the wild card. Kevin Millwood faces Bronson Arroyo. Millwood record of 2-5 doesn't reflect how well he's pitched this season. Arroyo's ERA is higher than it should be based on three bad outings. Take away those 19 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings and you have a pitcher with a 2.88 ERA.

Texas is on the brink of falling out of the NL West race. At this point, they're closer to third place Oakland than first place Anaheim. The get a chance to gain some ground as they host the Angels tonight. They'll have a tough time as the Angels send Bartolo Colon to the mound vs. C.J. Wilson. Colon is having a good year vs. the Rangers; in two starts he's struck out twelve and allowed only 1 home run to the powerful lineup, converting both starts into wins.

Enjoy!

Looking for tickets to these and other games, including the All-Star Game? Check out the Baseball Musings Ticket Store!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM | Matchups | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Predicted Winning Percentages
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It seems a comment left on this blog led Dan Fox to look at how accurate the Pythagorean method is mid-season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:59 PM | Statistics | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Torre and the Front Office
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Murray Chass of the New York Times reports a change in the attitude of the Yankees upper management toward Joe Torre's asssessment of the team:

A couple of weeks ago, in a conference call, Steinbrenner asked Torre if there was anything he needed to help get the team going, and Torre said the team would be O.K. The front office accepted Torre's answer then but doesn't now.

As Chass points out, there's not much they can do internally, however:

The Yankees brain trusts in New York and Tampa are not satisfied with the effort of some of their high-priced players, though no one will identify any of them, and are poised to make changes, if only they could figure out what to change. What they can't do is bolster the team from within, from the ranks of minor leaguers.

They tried that route when their $64 million rotation was wracked with injuries, many of them predictable given the healthy history of some of the starters, and they needed a replacement. They got Sean Henn, who in three losing starts has allowed 11.12 earned runs and 23 base runners per nine innings and a .360 opponents' batting average.

Henn, a 24-year-old left-hander, was presumably the best pitcher the Yankees had in their system because this wasn't a time for tryouts. But after Henn's last start, against the Mets on Saturday, the Yankees conceded that he wasn't ready for the major leagues.

Needing outfield help, the Yankees yesterday summoned Kevin Reese, a 27-year-old minor leaguer who wasn't even on their 40-man roster. If Henn and Reese are the best the Yankees had in their system, why haven't they developed anyone better?

The development question does not fall on Torre's shoulders. Joe was given a good team this year. This may be the first time in his tenure that he wasn't given a great team. So far, Torre hasn't managed them to perform above their abilities. You can choose your favorite culprit for the farm system, but in the end it's the desire to win everything now that drives the Yankees to deplete the youngsters and get old. Contrast this with the Braves, who don't win the World Series often, but slowly and steadily bring along talent from their minors that gives them a chance to win every year. Even with all their injuries to key personnel, the Braves are leading the wild card in the NL and only three games back in the division.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Management | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Jason Elevation
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Jason Giambi brought the Yankees back to victory for the 2nd time in 11 days last night, driving in two in the ninth with a single. Giambi drove the ball into the gap in right center, giving ample opportunity for all to score. Like his game winning hit against Pittsburgh on 6/15, and a couple of others I'm seen in this time frame, Giambi is getting the balls in the air, over the infield defense. Earlier in the season, I'd see him hit the ball hard but on the ground, usually right at the shifted second baseman playing shallow right field. Now, he's taking those same pitches and getting more of an uppercut on them. Yankees watchers, can you confirm this is happening? He's been on a mini-tear lately. (One of those hits was a bunt down the third base line against the shift. He was leading off the inning and the Yankees needed base runners. A smart play.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:06 AM | Players | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Monday Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:04 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2005
Yankees Mistakes
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With two out in the 7th scored tied 1-1, the Yankees showed one of their great weaknesses, defense. Womack is playing center tonight and Chris Woodward hit a ball over his head that a good CF would have caught. It went for a double. A walk and a wild pitch put runners on 1st and 3rd. An error by the 2nd baseman Cano gave the Mets the lead. An infield hit and an error by Giambi allowed two more to score, and the Yankees are down 4-1 instead of being even with the Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | Defense | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Oakland One-Hitter
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The Cubs were not the only team to throw a combined 1-hitter today. Rich Harden went seven 1-hit innings while Flores and Calero each pitched a perfect innings in a 16-0 slaughter of the Giants. The east bay out hit the west bay 24-1. Ten of those hits went for extra bases, including two home runs by Nick Swisher.

The A's are now 12-4 over their last 16 games. They have a huge hole out of which to climb, but their off to a good start on their way up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | Games | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Prior Performance
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Mark Prior and an excellent outing by the Cubs bullpen turned what should have been Jon Garland's 13th win into this third loss. Garland allowed 2 runs over seven innings (1 earned) but Prior, Williams and Dempster held the Southsiders to just 1 hit and two walks, shutting them out 2-0. Prior went six innings, throwing just 71 pitches in his first start off the DL. It's the first good news on the injury front for Cubs fans in a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Grand Manny
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Manny Ramirez hit the 19th grand slam of his career this afternoon. At age 33, he has a decent chance of catching Gehrig's record of 23.

Grand Slams by Seasonal AgeGehrigRamirez
2210
2301
2423
2512
2622
2722
2833
2921
3001
3140
3222
3323
341NA
351NA

Age 31 made the difference between the two players. Gehrig's career ended prematurely. Manny has the luxury of playing for a team that believes in on-base percentage, so he's likely to have lots of opportunities if he stays with Boston.

Thanks to David Vincent of Saber for the data.

Update and Correction: July 6, 2005. Manny hit his third grand slam of the year on Monday, July 5, 2005. The age 33 now reflects this. I've also corrected a typo in the original table. He should have 2 at age 26.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM | Sluggers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (2)
Great Loss
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Seth McClung pitched the game of his life, a seven inning two-hitter against the Marlins. Unfortunately, he ran into a complete game shutout by A.J. Burnett. Burnett allowed his 2 hits over nine innings, striking out seven and only walking two. It's his third complete game of the year and his first shutout.

The Marlins needed a jump start to get back into the NL East race, and a three game series against the Devil Rays appeared to fit that need perfectly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:26 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Late Inning Reversal
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The Washington Nationals lose a rare game where they are outscored from the 7th inning on. The Nats scored 2 in the 7th to tie the game at five, but the bullpen could not hold the Jays back as they score 2 in the 8th and the 9th to end Washington's home winning streak.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:11 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Smoltz and O's
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John Smoltz is doing a good job today helping Atlanta go for the sweep of the Orioles. He's retired the first 12 batters he's faced, and he's not even striking them out. Throwing only 10 pitches an inning, the O's are putting the ball in play and making outs. Six of the twevle outs were in the air, five ground outs and 1 K.

Update: Smoltz ends up with a complete game five-hitter, allowing just one run. He struck out six over the last five innings and didn't walk a batter. Andruw Jones continues his hot June home run hitting with his 24th on the season and 12th of the month.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:01 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bury My Record at Swollen Knee
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Barry Bonds' knee is not swell, but swollen. Once again, his rehab caused more hurt than help. It's becoming clear this will continue to be a protracted process of healing, if it heals at all. It could very well be that Barry's reached the point in his life where his knee will just not carry him through the rigors of being an elite athlete. The odds of Barry breaking Aaron's record keep getting longer with every set back while the odds of his ever returning are shorter and shorter. Most players faced with this injury and rehab would retire. It's a testament to his competitiveness that Bonds labors on. I wonder at what point he says, "No more."

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 AM | Injuries | Comments (11) | TrackBack (1)
Games of the Day
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Mark Prior pitches his first major league game in a month when he tries to help the Cubs take the rubber game of the match from cross town rivals and baseball's best team, the Chicago White Sox. He'll face one of the many outstanding Sox starters, Jon Garland. A win by Garland makes him the first pitcher to 13 this season. Since 1974, 14 pitchers have reached 13 wins before July 1, the last being Curt Schilling in 2002. Joaquin Andjuar did it twice (1984 and 1985). Garland's had a rough month, posting a 5.03 ERA over his last five starts. He's given up seven of his ten home runs in that time.

The nomination for slugfest of the day is Kansas City at Colorado. Both Jose Lima and "The Patriarch" Joe Kennedy each possess ERA's over 7.00. Lima's allowed 19 home runs in 2005, and has 7 games in which he's allowed multiple long balls. Kennedy's allowed a .334 batting average this season, and is less than three innings shy of qualifying for the worst BA allowed in the National League.

Finally, Kris Benson takes on Randy Johnson as the Mets attempt to sweep the Yankees in the Bronx. Benson needs to regain his ability to strikeout batters; he only has four over his last four starts. On the plus side, he's only walked three in that period. Randy Johnson looked like he put it all together until he ran into the Devil Rays buzz saw last Tuesday. Only a remarkable comeback by the Yankees kept him from taking the loss.

Willie Randolph already won the season series against his mentor. A sweep at his former home would only be icing on the cake.

Enjoy!

Correction: The Mets lead the season series with the Yankees 3-2 and need a win tonight to win it out right.

You can find great seats for these games and every game, concerts and shows at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sunday Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 25, 2005
The Brewers Future
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Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder each hit his first major league homer in a 7-6 victory over the Twins. They represent the first wave of production from a highly touted farm system. Brewers fans hope to see many more games in which the two go deep.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Rookies | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Cleveland Clubbing
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The Indians offense hit on all cylinders today as they pounded out 21 hits to beat the Reds 12-7. Every player had a hit for the Indians, and everyone but Peralta had multiple safties. It's the first time this season the Indians hit five homers in a game. They hit four on June 8th, otherwise they haven't had more than three in a game in 2005.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
If I Was a Carpenter
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Chris Carpenter continues his hot June with a complete game shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He struck out 11 and walked none on his way to a four hitter. In June he now has a 0.90 ERA and has struck out 43 in 40 innings while walking only seven. He'll be a candidate for pitcher of the month.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bruce's Big Toe
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Bruce Chen left today's game against the Atlanta Braves with a sprained big toe. He pitched 4 2/3 scoreless inning before the injury. The early exit forced the Orioles to go deep into their bullpen, and it cost them the game 5-4. I've always heard the big toe is an important digit, and today it may have cost the Orioles a win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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The Mariners didn't have a problem generating offense at PETCO last night. They did it with short extra-base hits, banging out five doubles and three triples to go along with a Richie Sexson home run. The fourteen runs scored by Seattle last night was the most scored by a team at PETCO Park.

Today is shaping up to be more of a pitcher's duel as Aaron Sele faced Padres ace Jake Peavy. Sele is on a roll. Over his last seven starts he's posted a 1.75 ERA. He's doing it without striking out a lot of batters, but he's also kept the ball in park, allowing just three home runs. Peavy went through a rough patch the first two weeks of June, but broke out of it with eight scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers his last time out.

The Twins are only 3-7 over their last ten games and turn to Johan Santana to right the ship today. He'll face the Brewers' Toma Ohka in Milwaukee. Santana's opponents are actually getting on base less than they did against him last year, but they are hitting for more power, .373 vs. .315. That's moving the runners farther, leading to a higher ERA. Ohka's totally changed his control numbers in his first two starts for the Brewers. With the Nationals, he walked 27 and struck out 17. With Milwaukee, he's walked 1 and struck out 10. That's a much better formula for success.

Enjoy!

You can buy seats for these and all sporting events at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Matchups | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Weekend Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 24, 2005
First Place Sox
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The Red Sox moved into first place in the AL East tonight, defeating the Phillies 8-0. Tim Wakefield posted an impressive line, allowing just two hits in eight innings. Wakefield even added a single of his own, bringing his batting average this season to .302.

Baltimore scored five runs tonight, but it wasn't enough to over come a 7-1 Atlanta lead. Andruw Jones hit his 22nd homer of the season. He seemed to lose his spring homer swing in April, but he hit 9 in May and now 10 in June. He's hitting for power just when the Braves need him most.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | Division Races | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Gagne no Tommy John
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Eric Gagne's surgery went better than expected. He did not require a ligament replacement.

The doctors found a slight amount of fraying from the original graft that was stitched when Gagne underwent Tommy John surgery in 1997. Also, there were nerves that had scarred down onto the graft, which was causing Gagne considerable pain. The surgery relieved the pressure the nerves were placing on the graft.

"The ligament was intact, but there was a sensory nerve that was running right along the elbow bone, along with the ligament," Jobe said. "So the symptoms were identical to a ligament tear, but it was really just an irritation to the nerve."

He should be ready for spring training. Good news for Eric and the Dodgers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Triple Double
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After a Luis Castillo lead-off single, Cabrera, Delgado and Lowell hit consecutive doubles to give the Marlins a 3-0 lead over the Devil Rays. Lowell's still not great, but his June is a big improvement over April and May.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lucky and Good
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Watching the White Sox crush the Cubs today you can see both the skill the team brings to the game and the good luck that takes them the extra mile.

Freddy Garcia is throwing strikes today and baffling the Cubs offense. Through seven he's thrown 93 pitches, 63 for strikes and struck out eight. On the other side of the ball, the White Sox are putting the ball in play when they swing (only two strikeouts) resulting in ten hits. They've also added five walks to reach base in about half of their plate appearances. They've executed a perfect hit and run and batters hit fly balls when they needed to drive in runs from third.

But I keep noticing things going their way, too. A pop drops between three fielders. Ground balls just scoot under a fielder's glove. Poor throws allow stolen bases when the runners get bad jumps. Today's game is a perfect example of the good team getting the lucky breaks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:12 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Depth in Detroit
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The Detroit Tigers Weblog notices that the Tigers have oganizational depth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:51 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Kearns and Trades
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It's posts like this that make me believe that Dan O'Brien won't be far behind Dave Miley on his way out of Cincinnati.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:32 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Low Ranking Patterson
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Ivy Chat makes a good case that Corey Patterson shouldn't be batting any where near the top 2/3 of the Cubs order.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Swinging from the Neck
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Todd Hollandsworth just tied the Cubs-White Sox game with a solo home run in the top of the third. Talk about poor process! The pitch was at his neck. He hammered it out, however.

When I see something like that, it makes me believe the strikezone is two short. It's perfectly reasonable to swing at a chest high pitch. Just because the batters want to uppercut balls out of the park doesn't mean the top of the zone should be a little above the belt.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:39 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Missing the Strike Zone
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Sergio Mitre pitched an interesting first. His control is off; he walked Podseknik leading off the bottom of the first, but worked to keep Scott close at first and ended up picking him off. It was a costly mistake for the center fielder, as two batters later Mitre got behind Frank Thomas in the count, leading to Thomas taking a 2-1 pitch into the left field stands on a line. Mitre ended up throwing 23 pitches in the inning, 10 for balls.

That's seven home runs in 39 at bats for Frank Thomas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New Look II
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I've made another attempt at a new look. As always, I welcome your opinions.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:59 PM | Blogs | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Losing Big and Small
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Was Watching has more on how the Yankees are losing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
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The Mets and Yankees resume their subway series with a dandy pitching matchup as Pedro Martinez faces Mike Mussina. Pedro is doing just about everything right this season; high strikeouts, low walks, low home runs allowed, and on top of that he's not giving up hits either. Although his ERA is slightly higher away from Shea, in many ways he's pitched better on the road. Mike's strikeout totals are growing. He's fanned 19 batters in his last 21 1/3 innings over three starts. He was averaging 5.8 K per 9 before that.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Matchups | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Traveling Buddies
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Johnny Damon is talking about taking Kevin Millar with him if Damon signs elsewhere as a free agent.

``When I get to free agency, I'm going to talk to a lot of players because I know there's a lot of teams out there who are going to want me,'' said Damon. ``I'm going to take my time, call guys like Kevin Millar [stats, news], Billy Mueller, see where they end up, guys I've enjoyed playing with here. Put a package together, that's how much I care for these guys and how much they care for me. When I'm a free agent, I'll call Kevin and say, `Hey, who wants you?' I'll tell him who wants me and we'll turn another clubhouse inside out.''

Damon's opinion of his worth is very high. Four great season in eleven years of play doesn't make him look like a consistent performer to me. He's at the age where he's more likely to decline than improve. And finally, he's a Fenway hitter. His averages on the road this season are .308/.343/.436. Not bad, but hardly the kind of numbers that I'm going to bend over backwards to make happy.

Damon is a very good player and lots of clubs will be happy to sign him. But he's not worth the extra cost of a prima donna.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Free Agents | Comments (12) | TrackBack (1)
New Look
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In case you don't scroll down, I'm soliciting comments on a new layout for this blog. The original post is here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Blogs | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Dose of Data
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 23, 2005
Losing to Tampa
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Does a team that goes 3-7 against Tampa Bay deserve to make the playoffs? I don't think so. They're a combined 3-10 vs. TB and KC, the two worst teams in the league. If they were 10-3 against these two doormats, the Yankees would be in first place by two games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Ponson on the Bubble?
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How many more performances like tonight before Sidney Ponson goes the way of Ryan Drese? Yes, he has a 7-5 record, but he also owns a 5.42 ERA and the opposition hits .322 against the righty. He's made seven bad starts and eight good to moderate ones. Can the Orioles really afford that? With the loss to Halladay and the Blue Jays tonight, they stand in first place in the AL East by only half a game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 PM | Pitchers | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Sliding Head First
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The good news is that Dontrelle Willis extended his hitting streak to six games. The bad news is he did it beating out a sacrifice bunt by sliding head first into first base. Not only that, he led with his left hand! It looks like he's not hurt, but it was a scary looking slide.

He's having another great night on the mound. No runs and seven strikeouts through six innings. Miguel Cabrera drove in five with two homers and a two run single to help Willis to a 6-0 lead in the top of the 7th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Look
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I'm working on a new layout for the blog, to get more of the advertising at the top of the page. I'd like your opinions.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | Blogs | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Saarloos Gets It Right
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One big lesson I took away from Moneyball was that process was more important than results. If you get the process right, good results will follow more often.

Kirk Saarloos was getting good results with bad process. Entering today he had pitched well in June, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts. But in 17 innings, he walked 9 and struck out 0. That is not a recipe for success. He was winning, but his process was bad.

He got the process right today. He's went nine innings, allowed just four hits, no walks and seven strikeouts. He threw strikes today, getting 80 of his 127 pitches on the plus side. He did well with poor execution before this afternoon. He did great with proper process against the Mariners, getting the complete game shutout.

Update: The box score changed. He threw 127, not 125 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:50 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Stopping Lee
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This post on Lee vs. Pujols for the All-Star game led to a very interesting discussion, with good arguments being made for both first basemen. Lee hit two more homers today (through the 7th inning), giving him 22 on the year with 64 RBI. He's three for three with a walk to raise his OBA to .476. That's Bonds territory. With Lee leading the majors in home runs at the moment, I'd vote for him.

Carlos Lee hit a homer as well, and with two RBI maintains his ML lead in RBI. Deciding who is All-Lee may be tougher than deciding who's an All-Star.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Sluggers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Give Me Shelton
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The Minnesota Twins avoided a sweep by the Detroit Tigers today, defeating the Bengals soundly 6-2. Carlos Silva pitched his typical game; he gave up hits, but walked none, going the distance on just 91 pitches. It's the second complete game of the year for Silva.

The bright spot of the game for the Tigers was Chris Shelton going three for four, scoring both Detroit runs and hitting his third home run since his call-up in late May. Shelton is a perfect example of how easy it should be to find a first baseman. Carlos Pena just wasn't hitting. Instead of sticking with the guy, or spinning his defensive abilities, the Tigers pulled a good hitter out of their system. Shelton, in his brief stint with the Tigers this season, has a .362 OBA and a .519 slugging percentage. Here's someone that Pittsburgh left in the rule 5 draft. Some team over the last few years probably could have Shelton for not too much in return. The Tigers picked him up for next to nothing.

Just by being a decent hitting first baseman, Shelton's improved the Tigers offense at an important offensive position. The fact that the cost was extremely low should not be lost on other teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:31 PM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
A Player's View of Cheating
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From reader Jason Rennie, Todd Jones discusses what is and isn't considered cheating among the players in major league baseball. I found this section interesting:

I've been around pitching coaches who teach how to scuff or use pine tar. There's actually an art to scuffing, and there are two fatal errors guys make. The first: They scuff too often. To get away with scuffing, you have to know when to do it. Coaches and older players who have been around a long time know when they see a scuffed ball. So you have to pick your spots. You use it when it's a big part of the game and hope to take advantage of the small window of opportunity before the other team is tipped off. The umpire usually doesn't check the pitcher until the opposing manager asks him to.

That seems realistic. There's some probabilistic model to getting caught. The probability of getting caught is low, but if you cheat too often, the probability is that you'll eventually get caught.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:27 PM | Cheating | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Dontrelle Willis pitched seven shutout innings in his last start, but it wasn't enough to bring the Marlins a victory. With the Marlins on 24 inning scoreless streak, Dontrelle may need the best game of his season to win. He'll face Jorge Sosa, recently moved from the pen to the rotation due to the many Braves injuries. The Marlins need to be patient with Sosa, as he's walked 22 in 33 1/3 innings. Still, it hasn't hurt him much, as his ERA stands at 2.70.

The Tigers are only 2 1/2 games behind the Twins, and they'll send Jason Johnson to face Carlos Silva in Minnesota this afternoon. Johnson's improved his ERA each month this season and has a 1.82 ERA in June. The Twins have only scored six runs in their last four games and Lew Ford drove in half of those. It's been a team effort.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pitiful Performance
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There was not excuse for the poor performance of the Florida Marlins last night. They allowed eight runs (all earned) to a rather weak lineup, and were shut out for five innings by a starter with an ERA over 5.00. They've gone 24 innings without scoring a run. What does Jack McKeon do?

"I was passing out holy cards (to players)," manager Jack McKeon said. "Somebody gave me a bunch of rosaries. I gave them out."

Florida's offensive highlight Wednesday night? That came when Damion Easley became the first runner to reach third base — with two outs in the ninth inning before Miguel Cabrera grounded out to end the game.

"I know these guys are better, but what can I do? I can't hit," McKeon said.

Well, Jack, you're the manager, it's your job to do something! Payers are nice, but figuring out why your team isn't hitting might help more. Are they prepared for the pitchers coming into the game? Are they taking extra batting practice? Have you thought of benching some of the slumping hitters for a couple of days to send a message? How about getting Pierre out of the leadoff spot or Lowell off third base? It's time to lead, Mr. McKeon, or you may be joining Miley and Pena on the fired list.

Update: A reader points out that Pena resigned. Fair enough, but my guess is that he was given a choice of resign or be fired.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Schmidt and Velocity
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Jason Schmidt pitched 8 shutout innings last night, his 2nd consecutive performance with those statistics. This article in the San Francisco Chronicle seems surprised that Schmidt can strikeout people with something other than a 97 mile an hour fastball:

As he struggled with a dip in his velocity this season, Schmidt acknowledged he had to alter his pitching approach and rely less on overpowering hitters.

On Wednesday, though, he insisted the adjustment he had to make was simply relocating his fastball lower in the strike zone and rediscovering his off-speed pitches.

"You guys tried to turn me into Tom Glavine from the right side or something," he told reporters. "I just needed to start finding my breaking ball. It's just a pitch I needed to mix in there a little bit more. I wasn't saying I was going to change my whole game around."

His velocity used to top out at 97, now it's topping out at 95. That's still pretty good. And it's the change in velocity that fools hitters and STATS describes Schmidt's changeup as "among the best in the game."

Schmidt is throwing strikes, changing speeds, and the result is strikeouts. His top speed doesn't matter much.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Sweeping Sox
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The Sox are on a roll. They swept their American League Central opponent in convincing fashion. One is White and one is Red.

The White for most of the season looked like a lucky team. At some point, those one-run wins would start going against them, the pitching would return to its normal level, and the Twins would take them. Well, while the Twins were losing 9 of 12, the White Sox won 9 of 12, including seven in a row. They finished a sweep of Kansas City last night, posting a 5-1 victory. They outscored the Royals 21-10. That's what championship teams do; win big, and crush the lowly teams of the league. The White Sox now have the biggest lead of any division leader in the majors. If they play .500 the rest of the season they will win 94 or 95 games. For the White Sox not to make the playoffs would require a collapse of historic proportions.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, swept the Indians. Cleveland was the hottest team in baseball going into the series, but Boston handled their pitching staff, scoring 24 runs in the three games. They've scored 69 runs in their 9-1 stretch, and that includes being shutout in their only loss. They've taken over the wild card lead and pulled within a game of the Orioles for first place in the AL East.

Sox it to me!

Correction: I guess I can't do math first thing in the morning. The White Sox would win 94 or 95 games if they play .500 the rest of the way, making the point even stronger.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:36 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed last night's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 AM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2005
Morgan Magic
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Morgan Ensberg looks like he's regained the slugging form he showed in 2003. He knocked in all three of the Astros run through three innings with his 17th homer of the season. His OBA and slugging percentages are nearly identical to his 2003 marks, after a season where he played part time and his production fell off. He's right there with Aramis Ramirez and Troy Glaus for best offensive third baseman in the NL this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Sluggers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Kile Anniversary
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Viva El Birdos remembers Darryl Kile on the anniversary of his death.

Update: Added the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:57 PM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Patterson Popped
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John Patterson doubled his home runs allowed in the first inning today as Bay and Mackowiak each take him deep. All four homers he's allowed this season have come on the road.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:58 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight and every Wednesday at 8 PM EDT. Check out their other sports programming as well. You can listen at any one of these links:

Listen:

On tonight's show, Alex Belth of Bronx Banter stops by to talk about the Yankees and the AL East and John Perricone of Only Baseball Matters gives us his insights into the NL West.

I'll be on the road today at my niece's graduation. The show was taped yesterday. I hope you'll drop by and listen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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In an odd bit of scheduling, the Devil Rays face the Yankees on a Wednesday afternoon in the middle of a four game series. The pitching match up of Kazmir and Pavano isn't all that compelling, but seeing how the two teams play after last night's 8th inning is. I'm sure the Yankees hitters can't wait to get back to the plate, while the Devil Rays barely had time to sleep off the loss.

Boston goes for a sweep of the Indians in Cleveland this evening. The Indians were the hottest team in the majors when the Red Sox came to town on Monday. The Tribe's pitching was superb during their 13-1 run, posting a 2.41 ERA. The Red Sox, however, can hit, and that same Cleveland staff allowed 18 runs in their 18 innings vs. Boston. The two victories moved the Red Sox into the lead for the AL Wild Card.

Tonight, Wade Miller faces Cliff Lee. Lee's big improvement this season is his control. He's issued just 23 walks in 83 2/3 innings. He walked over 4 per 9 innings through the 2004 season, just 2.5 this year.

Finally, Jason Schmidt and the Giants host the Diamondbacks this evening. There are lots of trade rumors surrounding Schmidt and teams will want to see if his last start vs. the Tigers (0 runs over 8 innings) was a turnaround or a fluke in a bad year. Jason's ERA against the Diamondbacks is 4.61 this season in two starts.

Enjoy!

Remember, you can get tickets for these and other sporting events at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store, including seats for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bad News for the Dodgers
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They're 1-9 over their last 10 games, they've lost two in a row to the Padres, they're four games under .500 and now they've officially lost their closer for the season. Eric Gagne needs Tommy John surgery, which of course means they may not get him back until 2007.

This isn't the death knell for the Dodgers. They did fine in the early part of the season with Eric on the DL. They need to get the offense back to where it was in April when they were scoring 5.5 runs per game, instead of their June output of 3.6 runs per game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Injuries | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Fick in a Fix
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Robert Fick not only is still in baseball, he's given the Padres some offense this season. He drove in both runs in their 2-1 victory over the Dodgers last night. Since coming up in May, Fick is hitting, getting on base, and supplying some power. He's also catching again, which makes him happy.

"I've figured out what I need to do," Fick said yesterday. "I've done some stupid things in the past. I'm taking better care of myself on and off the field. And I think I've found a home here.

"The old Robert Fick might have gotten mad at not playing more and may have lost the respect of his teammates. But it's been different here. The Padres have been true to their word. For one thing, I'm catching again," he said.

I hope this is true. We'll see what happens when his batting stats return to normal and he's not playing every day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Texas Falls Short
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The Texas Rangers could not match the Yankees comeback last night, although they came close. Chan Ho Park staked the Angels to an eight run lead, giving up five in the first and three more in the second without getting an out. But Wasdin and the rest of the Texas bullpen came in to shut down the Angels the rest of the way. The Rangers chipped away and closed to 8-4 going into the ninth vs. Francisco Rodriguez. It wasn't K-Rod's best night, as he allowed 3 hits and 2 runs, but it was good enough to put the Angels in the win column.

Darin Erstand continued his hitting streak, stretching it to 21 games. (It's over 22 games played, but he didn't bat in one of those.) He's getting on base and scoring lots of runs. He's even drawn 10 walks, which given that he drew 15 before the streak started is pretty good. He's still not hitting for power like a first baseman, but he's setting up Vlad, which is all the Angels need.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
How do You Spell Relief?
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Where was Danys Baez last night? It's the eighth inning. Franklin Nunez took the game from a comfortable lead to a save situation. Why does Lou Piniella bring in a pitcher with a 7.32 ERA at that point? A pitcher, who despite having good walk and home run numbers still gives up a ton of runs?

Baez pitched 1 1/3 inning the previous night, throwing over 20 pitches. But he had four days off. He didn't need to finish the game on Tuesday, he just needed to get two outs. Certainly a closer should be able to pitch two days in a row, especially if his overall use is low.

This article will give you a feel just how shell-shocked the Devil Rays are.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 AM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Hump Day Data Dump
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2005
Drowning Fish
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What happened to the Marlins bats?

Update: Sorry this post was wrong. I looked at the wrong team game by game log.

Smoltz's shutout tonight is the third blanking of the Marlins in the last 11 games. They've also scored over 10 runs twice in that period, but more than half of their games in that period resulted in two runs or less.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Offense | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Comeback in the Bronx
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Lou Piniella may commit homicide after tonight's game. The DRays pounded Randy Johnson early, getting out to a 10-2 lead after four. The Yankees kept chipping away until the dam broke in the 8th. It's not over, and the Yankees have scored 11 runs in the inning. It's now 18-11 and it's not clear where (or when) this game will end.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Drese Drubbed
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Whatever the Nationals did to get the great first start out of Ryan Drese did not last. Ryan only managed three innings tonight, leaving after allowing 8 runs while striking out none.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Reds Offense Unleashed
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The Cincinnati Reds hitters went hog wild early tonight, picking up 10 runs in the first three innings against the Cardinals. Every starter has reached base, and Dunn is the only one not to get a hit so far.

The Red offense wasn't the problem, however. Claussen is pitching well enough to win tonight, but he's not doing anything great. He's yet to strike out a batter, and he's allowed four runs through five innings. That won't win him many games in the future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Unit's Number
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If there was one team you would assume Randy Johnson could dominate, it would be the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. They strikeout a lot and they're not very selective at the plate. But Johnson faced them twice now, and twice they've hit him very well. He's given up 12 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings against Tampa Bay this season. Five of those runs came on three home runs; that brings Randy to 16 allowed this season vs. 18 in all of 2004. Randy was improving, and the Devil Rays should have helped that along. Instead, they've raised more doubts as to the health and ability of the lefty. The Devil Rays lead the Yankees 10-2 in the 6th, and are in a position to stretch their record to 6-2 against New York this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Home Brew
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Alan Schwarz looks at the rookies recently infused into the Brewers lineup. One point of disagreement:

It is amazing how fast these three players – the best triumvirate of rookie talent on any club today – have come through the system, one stuffed to the gills by scouting director Jack Zduriencik. Hardy, 22, was a second-round high school pick in 2001, and broke camp this spring as the starting shortstop. Weeks, also 22, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2003 draft out of Southern University, and was tearing up Triple-A Nashville before being summoned June 10. And Fielder, a 2002 high school first-rounder who recently turned 21, showed such terrifying power at Nashville in a three week period that he was called up June 12 to DH in the Brewers' interleague games – and showed enough talent to stick around.

I don't find it amazing at all. Great players do not spend a lot of time in the minor leagues. If these are truly exceptional hitters and fielders, they should have zoomed through the organization. Show me a 19 or 20-year-old starting in the majors and I'll show you a future hall of famer. It's only when organizations screw up, as the Red Sox did with Boggs and the Mariners did with Edgar Martinez that a great player has a long minor league career.


Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | Rookies | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Green Miley
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The Cincinnati Reds fired Dave Miley today. This doesn't come as a surprise:

Earlier this month, Reds chief operating officer John Allen traveled to Denver to meet with Miley. Allen called the Reds' performance "unacceptable" and hinted that changes could be made if there was no improvement.

The Reds went 5-9 after Allen's remarks. Cincinnati has already had four straight below-.500 years -- its longest such streak since 1945-55 -- and has not reached the playoffs since 1995.

There were really no excuses this season. The offense is as healthy as it's ever been. The pitching is horrible, and Gullett and Miley did not turn it around. One could argue that the off-season signings weren't the best, but the axe fell on the manager rather than the GM.

Jerry Narron takes over on a interim basis. Until they find a staff that can pitch, however, they're not likely to get a lot better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:04 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Summer in a Cast
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We just got back from the doctor's office. My daughter, it turns out, broke the slowest healing bone in the body. She gets to spend the rest of the summer in a cast. On the bright side, the doctor was quite impressed that she did this with a punch and thinks she can be a good boxer. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:58 PM | Other | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More Tales from the Darkside
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It appears Jose Cruz, not one of his teammates, was responsible for the Darth Vader poster.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Ryan Drese gets his second start for the Washington Nationals today as they continue their visit to Pittsburgh. Drese, after being released by the Rangers, pitched eight shutout innings against the Angels in his Nationals debut. He'll face struggling lefty Oliver Perez. Oliver looked like he turned things around in his first two June starts, but was pounded for six runs by the Yankees his last time out. He's been hit hard all year; opponents are slugging .505 against him vs. .359 in 2004.

The Blue Jays are trying to stay close in the AL East and will go for another win vs. the division leading Orioles this evening. Rodrigo Lopez faces Gustavo Chacin. Despite having identical 3-1 records, Lopez's ERA balloons three runs on the road, from 2.68 to 5.98. With four home runs allowed in 82 1/3 innings. Chacin is 2nd to Kenny Rogers in home runs allowed per 9 IP.

The Marlins and Braves offer the best pitching matchup of the evening as Burnett takes on Smoltz. Burnett is pitching better than his 4-4 record would indicate. Before getting the victory in the 15-5 blow out of the Cubs on the 15th, Burnett had pitched four games in a row in which he managed a no-decision, despite pitching well enough to win all of them. Smoltz can tell a similar story. A 3.14 ERA deserves better than a 6-5 record. The Braves have lost four games this season in which Smoltz pitched well enough to win.

Enjoy!

Remember to visit the Baseball Musings Ticket Store for seats to these and all sporting events.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lee vs. Pujols
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Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols each helped their team to victory last night with home runs. Pujols is having a Pujols year. Great batting average, great OBA and an excellent slugging percentage. Derrek Lee is putting up even better numbers. He's slugging in the .700's, over .100 points better than Pujols.

For whom do you vote when you fill out your all-star ballot? Do you vote for someone based on a great 1/2 season, or do you go for someone who is consistently great throughout his career? Derrek Lee's history shows him to be a good but not great hitter. Pujols is on the way to the Hall of Fame. I'm interested in your ideas on this. Who do you want to see in the all-star game; the all-time great or the one-season wonder?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 AM | All-Star Game | Comments (35) | TrackBack (0)
Thomas Slipping
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Frank Thomas hit another home run last night, but he's slipped to one home run every 5 1/3 AB. :-) If you look at home run leaders for June, and compare Thomas' at bats to every one else with six or seven, you'll see he's on a remarkable tear.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 AM | Sluggers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Morning Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2005
Bay Walk
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I'm not sure which is more remarkable, that Sean Henn was allowed to walk seven batters tonight, or that the Devil Rays were selective enough to take the seven walks. All-in-all the Devil Rays drew nine free passes in the game, equaling their team high set on May 10th. They haven't drawn more than six in any other game they've played this season. Even with all those walks, they only scored five runs. Luckily, it was enough to top the Yankees 5-4.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Red Sox Sock
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A high scoring, close game in Cleveland tonight as the Red Sox defeat the Indians 10-9. The Sox offense produced power tonight, hitting 4 doubles and three home runs. The Red Sox had 13 hits and 26 total bases, meaning their average hit was a double. They were advancing their baserunners a long way tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Peavy
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If you have MLB Extra Innings, you may wish to stay up late this evening. Jake Peavy retired the first 12 batters he faced tonight, striking out eight along the way. This 0-0 game against the Dodgers is shaping up to be an exciting pitcher's duel.

Update: The Padres just scored on a hit and run double by Brian Giles in the bottom of the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Back from New Britian
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I had a nice trip to see the New Britian Rockcats tonight against the Mets double A affiliate. Very nice infield glove work this evening. Most of the time you can tell the difference between AA and the majors by the quality of the fielders, but nice plays all around this evening. The Rockcats won 4-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Smart or Lucky?
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Dan Agonistes shares his thoughts on the White Sox and smart ball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Munson vs. Posada
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Jon at Coalition of the Dark Side believes that Jorge Posada is the best Yankees catcher in the Steinbrenner era, while other argue Munson. Thurman is one player that Sabermetrics made me see differently. I grew up loving Munson, arguing to people that he was better than Fisk. It just wasn't true. And for the same reasons, he's not better than Posada.

Munson did not walk much for a good hitter. He batted .292 but his OBA was only .346. Posada, on the other hand, only hit .271 but has a .378 OBA. He also outslugs Munson by 64 points. Defensively, I don't see much difference, so Posada gets the nod based on his offensive skills.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:09 PM | Players | Comments (9) | TrackBack (1)
Games of the Day
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As the teams return to intraleague play, there are a number of exciting division and wild card matchups this evening.

The Red Sox and Indians each send a lefty to the mound as C.C. Sabathia host David Wells in Cleveland. Wells pitched in superb mode his last two starts, not allowing any runs in 15 innings and only five hits. He's 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA vs. NL teams this season. He's 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA vs. AL teams. There a deep chasm between what Sabathia's allowed with the bases empty and runners on. Opponents are hitting 99 points higher once men reach and up to .345 with men in scoring position.

The Rangers visit Anaheim to battle the Angels for first place in the AL West. Chris Young gets the nod for the Rangers. Chris only allowed four home runs this season. In his brief stint in the majors last year he gave up seven in just 36 1/3 innings. With his 2.78 ERA, the Rangers have two pitchers in the top 5 among AL leaders. An impressive feat given their home ballpark. The Angels send Paul Byrd to the mound. Byrd is getting pounded by lefties ths season, who are slugging .511 off the righty. Given the Rangers roster, Buck can't stack too many lefties into his lineup; looks like he can get five in there with switch hitters.

The other Los Angeles team, the Dodgers, travels out to San Diego to battle the Padres for the NL West. A sweep of the four game series would put LA 1/2 game behind San Diego. Brad Penny faces Jake Peavy this evening. Penny's given up 13 runs and 28 hits in his last 18 1/3 innings for a 6.38 June ERA. He's only walked 2 so his control is not the problem; he's just not fooling anybody. This will be Peavy's first start against the Dodgers this season. In nine starts against LA in his career, he's 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA.

Enjoy!

Don't forget to check out the Baseball Musings Ticket Store for the best seats to these and other games, including the NBA Finals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:36 PM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Payroll in Perspective
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WasWatching makes the Yankees payroll seem reasonable.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Dominant League
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The American League is dominating interleague play this season. The AL recorded 118 wins so far to just 92 for the National League. The only AL team that has a poor record against the NL is the Devil Rays at 3-12; Tononto, Minnesota and Oakland are just under .500 at 7-8. In the NL, interleague play helped cement the Nationals and Cardinals in first place, each pacing the NL with a 10-5 record.

The Indians have the best record vs. the NL this season, going 13-2. And while they've gained ground in the wild card race, the White Sox posted an 11-4 record vs. the NL to keep Cleveland from moving up much in the division race.

The NL West is a real punching bag for the AL teams, going a combined 24-47 vs. the AL Central, the Padres and Dodgers each adding ten losses to that total.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Darth Diamondback
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Jose Cruz Jr. is in the dog house in the club house due to his poor defense.

After a tough day in the outfield, when he misjudged and misplayed a few fly balls hit his way during Arizona's 3-2 loss to the Cleveland Indians at Jacobs Field, Cruz found an image of Darth Vader taped above his locker.

Blue highlighter was smeared on Vader's cheeks, a not-so-subtle reminder by someone on the team that Cruz could have used eye black - or something - to more deftly play his position.

Yes, Jose's misplays led to runs that cost the Diamondbacks the game. But he also hit a home run. Where was the rest of the Diamondbacks offense? They weren't exactly storm troopers out there yesterday. That's two days in a row where the opposition scored three runs and the DBacks lost. There is plenty of blame to go around.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Defense | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Monday Morning Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 AM | Statistics | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 19, 2005
Runelvys Hits
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Runelvys Hernandez is having an excellent June. In four starts he's 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. It's not quite clear why that's true. His home runs are up from April and May. He's striking out about the same number of batters, but his hits allowed are way down. He was allowing 10 per 9 innings in April/May, 5.8 in June. If any Kansas City fans have any insight, please share it in the comments.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | Pitchers | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Making His Mark
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Mark Teixeira broke the four-way tie for the AL home run lead today with his 20th in a losing cause against the Nationals. Mark's been consistent this season, hitting 6 in April, 7 in May and now 7 in June. At age 25, he's improved his batting average and slugging in each season he's played. As he approaches his peak years, he's in a position to be a major slugger over the next half-decade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | Sluggers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Renteria and Mueller
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Every day as I look at boxscores I'm amazed at how many players with poor on-base averages are batting second. I'm most surprised when I see it with the Red Sox. For some reason, they bat Renteria second and leave Bill Mueller down in the 8th spot. If it were based on their career averages I might understand, but Mueller is 30 points better over their lifetime service. Is it speed? Is it bat control? Neither strikes out much, and Edgar will steal many more bases. But it's tough to steal if you're not on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 PM | Strategy | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Mariano Better than Ever
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Happy father's day to all! I hope you had a great day with your family.

Mariano Rivera picked up his 16th save today, pitching a perfect ninth. When the season started, it looked like Mariano's age was showing. He was walking batters. He was giving up hits. He was letting errors lead to runs. But since May 9th, he has not allowed a run in 17 innings pitched. Batters managed just 7 hits against him while he's struck out 18. For the season his ERA stands at 1.01 and the majors are just hitting .163 against him. It seems the stories of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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The Yankees go for the sweep today as they finish up their series with the Chicago Cubs. Sergio Mitre takes the mound for Chicago against Mike Mussina of the Yankees. Mitre enters the game with a 16 inning scoreless streak. In that time, he's allowed just seven hits and one walk while striking out nine. Mussina is coming off his best game of the season, a complete game shutout of the Pirates. Mussina's only walked 2 in his last 15 innings.

A good pitching matchup in Boston as well. Kip Wells of the Pirates faces Matt Clement of the Red Sox. Clement does not have a stellar record vs. the Bucs. In 19 starts he's just 7-6 vs. a Pirate team that has not been high caliber. His 4.58 ERA is strange given that:

  • He's struck out quite a few Pirates.
  • He gives up very few home runs.
  • His walk total is a little high, but not given the number he's striking out.

Bad luck or bad defense?

Kip Wells success depends on keeping the opposition from getting hits. He's allowed a .342 OBA this season, but only a .244 batting average. People get on, but they don't move around the bases easily. That didn't work against the Yankees last time out, and it might not work against the Red Sox.

The Washington Nationals send Esteban Loaiza to the mound to prevent a sweep by the Texas Rangers. C.J. Wilson makes the first start of his major league career for the Rangers. Loaiza pitched eight games this year where his effort was good enough to win, but he ended up with a no decision. The bullpen's been fine, it's the offense that hasn't given him enough support, scoring just 25 runs in his 14 starts while he's been on the mound.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sunday Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2005
Yhency Dicey
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Yhency Brazoban starts his own fire vs. the White Sox and is unable to put out the flames. With two out and one on in the bottom of the ninth, Yhency gives up three straight hits, capped off with a two run walk off home run by Pierzynski. A great comeback win for the White Sox, and the Dodgers are missing Gagne tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Second to None
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The Rockies are getting plenty of offense from their second basemen this season. With Barmes taking the collar bone break, Eddy Garabito picked up the slack. He was two for five tonight to lower his batting average to .410. When Barmes comes back, the Rockies might want to think about keeping the two of them together in the infield with Garabito at shortstop.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | Offense | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dontrelle Bends, Doesn't Break
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It's not Dontrelle Willis' best game, but through seven innings he's shut out the Angels. He's given up 10 hits and a walk, but all the hits were singles. He's over 100 pitches, so it's not clear he'll come out for the 8th, so he may really be dependent on his bullpen for the win.

Update: Mecir starts the 8th and gives up a home run to Vlad Guerrero to tie the game. It's the first time Dontrelle won't the decision in a game he started this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Grand Jeter
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Derek Jeter just hit the first grand slam of his career. What was most unusual about it was that he hit it to the deepest part of Yankee Stadium. Most of the his homers in the past in Yankee Stadium went to the opposite field.

Update: Jeter hits another home run in his next at bat. This time, he went to right center.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:07 PM | Players | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Thrown Out
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The Phillies have an interesting offensive line today. They've put 11 men on via a hit or a walk through five innings, and have left six of them on. But they've only scored 1 run. Three double plays and a runner thrown out a home kept them from running up the score. One of the double plays was on a pair of bad baserunning plays, so three runners were taken off base by their own incompetence.

The Phillies did this the other day vs. the Mariners but pulled that game out. The Athletics lead 2-1, so that's possible again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Memories of 1963
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The play of this year's Astros reminds Mickey Herskowitz of the 1963 Colt 45's. That team couldn't hit, and pulled a publicity stunt at the end of the season:

Two days before the end of the season, they pulled off a classic public relations stunt against the Mets. They started an all-rookie lineup, one that averaged 19 years, 8 months.

Pitcher Jay Dahl was 17. Four were 19, including Rusty Staub. Joe Morgan and Jerry Grote were 20. At 21, outfielders Jimmy Wynn and Aaron Pointer were elders.

Morgan made it to Cooperstown and the World Series; Staub, Grote and Wynn made the Series. Pointer's career was short, but he stayed in sports as a game official for the NFL. His sisters, Ruth, Anita, Bonnie and June, formed a singing group under their own name: the Pointer Sisters.

They had more hits than the '63 team.

Ouch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:09 PM | History | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Drese Angle
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An interesting article in the Dallas Morning News on Ryan Drese's immediate improvement with the Washington Nationals.

Despite his underwhelming statistics – a 4-6 record, a 6.46 ERA, opponents' .334 batting average – the Nationals clearly wanted Drese and were the lone team to submit a waiver claim. They saw a pitcher who needed not an overhaul of his mechanics, but rather to make a few tweaks in his arm angle. So pitching coach Randy St. Claire went to work.

Drese threw on the side Sunday and a light session Monday to prepare for Wednesday's start. St. Claire noticed Drese was throwing his pitches from three arm slots. His sinker, his out pitch, came from an angle that put a sideways, not downward, movement on the ball. Hitters can recognize the spin easier and lay off a pitch that is supposed to land outside the strike zone.

What the article fails to discuss, however, is why Orel Hershiser didn't make this correction.

"Orel [Hershiser, the Rangers' pitching coach] will tell you that I was moving in this direction," Drese said. "But this is a game of wins and losses, and that's the bottom line. ... I was disappointed, and I think they [the Rangers] made a mistake. But I'm in Washington now, and it's a place where I'm wanted."

If Drese continues to perform well in Washington, the Rangers should re-evaluate Orel's performance as coach. It also makes me wonder if someone will be able to give Pedro Astacio a similar boost.


Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Schilling' Rehabilitation
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Curt Schilling set a return date of July 10th, just before the All-Star break.

Schilling threw a light bullpen session before the Sox' 6-5 win over the Pirates last night. Yesterday marked his return to his team after a stint in Tempe, Ariz., at the Athletes Performance Institute, where he received intensive attention and treatment - ``seven hours a day,'' he said - on his foot. Former team doctor Bill Morgan, who stitched up Schilling last October, watched the pitcher's session yesterday - after being invited by Schilling. Schilling wore a less dramatically altered boot yesterday, and said that the hope is that he can wear a normal shoe when he pitches.

Rehabilitation can be a full time job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tarred and Feathered
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Brendan Donnelly received a 10-day suspension for his pine tar infraction. Congress will now launch an investigation to determine if the penalty was too lenient.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM | Cheating | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Although we won't be seeing it in New England, Fox is carrying a great game this afternoon as Dontrelle Willis goes for his 12th win against John Lackey and the Angels. One of the things that's helped Dontrelle achieve those 11 wins is his results with men on base. The opposition is hitting just .188 with men on and .206 with men in scoring position. He's not allowed a hit with the bases loaded; batters are 0 for 5 with 1 walk and just two rbi. The Marlins have won just 6 of their last 17 games, and three of those wins were credited to Dontrelle.

John Lackey lowered his ERA from 5.61 at the end of April to 3.99 today. He's struck out 49 in 52 1/3 innings since the start of May.

Roy Halladay continues to pitch like a Cy Young award winner. He'll have a tough matchup today as the Blue Jays host Ben Sheets and the Brewers. Sheets has a losing record despite a good ERA. Sheets allowed 26 runs so far this season, but the Brewers only scored 19 while he was in the game. The last time Halladay allowed more than two runs in a game was May 4th. Since then he's made seven starts and posted a 0.97 ERA. Just two balls left the park against him in that span.

Enjoy!

Remember to visit the Baseball Musings Ticket Store for the hard to find seats at the big games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Dose of Data
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2005
Schmidt Fit
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To go along with Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina tossing gems, Jason Schmidt turned around his season tonight with eight scoreless innings vs. the Tigers. He allowed seven hits, but they were all singles. He struck out five, so he's not all the way back, but after three straight starts allowing six runs, this game comes as a big relief to Giants fans and management.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pacing Himself
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With another home run tonight, Frank Thomas is hitting a dinger every five at bats this season. The are 96 games left in the White Sox schedule. So if Thomas can get another 300 at bats, he could set the AL record for home runs in a season. :-) Actually, this couple of days on/couple of days off schedule appears to be helping Frank. He's in the zone, and it will be fun to see how long he can maintain this pace.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Sluggers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Team Left On Base
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A reader was looking for team left on base. Here's the table.

Team Left On Base through June 16, 2005.
Team LOB
ARI 520
NYA 518
BOS 518
PHI 504
SD 503
OAK 484
NYN 470
LAD 468
CIN 468
COL 467
WSH 465
STL 464
MIL 460
SF 454
CHN 452
MIN 451
PIT 450
FLA 449
SEA 443
BAL 442
TB 442
ATL 439
TEX 438
KC 432
TOR 428
CLE 427
HOU 417
LAA 410
DET 407
CHA 401
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | Statistics | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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There are so many good pitching matchups tonight, I'm only going to mention the Cubs at Yankees for its historical significance. Maybe Derrek Lee will call a shot!

The Diamondbacks play the Indians tonight, and Brad Halsey faces Cliff Lee in a battle of lefties. Halsey had some criticism of the Yankees farm system recently.

"You win 17 games and you can't even get an invite to spring training," Halsey said of the Yankees. "They don't know who a lot of their minor leaguers are, which is unfortunate."

When Halsey was promoted, he introduced himself to manager Joe Torre and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, and Halsey said neither recognized him. But that didn't bother him as much as the chatter he heard in the minors from prospects who wanted out because they knew their careers would be stifled if they didn't move up the ladder at a decent pace quickly.

Brad's been working with Mark Davis to correct his current slump. Meanwhile, Cliff Lee has become the Indians ace. Since May 11, Cliff has a 2.03 ERA and he's only allowed 3 home runs in his last seven starts.

The Nationals visit the penultimate team to play in Washington, the Texas Rangers. John Patterson goes against Kenny Rogers in a battle of pitchers with ERAs in the low twos. Rogers had his first bad outing of the year last time out vs. the Marlins, allowing a rare home runs. Patterson has allowed exactly 1 run in each of the three starts he's made since returning from his injury.

The Astros visit the Red Hot Royals this evening, and if a Friday night and Roger Clemens don't bring out the crowds, nothing will. Roger will face J.P. Howell, who pitched brilliantly in his ML debut, striking out eight in five innings.

The reeling Padres travel to the land of 10000 lakes to face the injury ridden Twins. Tim Stauffer hurls for the southern Californians. Like most Padre starters, Tim does not go deep into games and depends on the bullpen for his wins. Carlos Silva does not strike out many, but his walks and home runs allowed are so low, even all the balls in play don't hurt him much. It will be interesting to see how he does with a make shift middle infield this evening.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:38 PM | Matchups | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Sleepless in Philadelphia
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If you couldn't stay up on the east coast to watch the 13 inning Phillies victory, here's the recap. Both starters deserved the win, but baserunning blunders by the Phillies almost gave the Mariners the victory.

Ichiro went two for five last night, but is still hitting below .300 at .295. Suzuki's lack of plate discipline is hurting him this season. In the past, he lack of walks didn't matter much because he got on base through his abundance of hits. But when the hits disappear, so does his OBA.

An ESPN producer once said to me (it was the early 1990s) that he didn't like Rickey Henderson because he was so inconsistent from year to year. He was looking at his batting average. But if you looked at Rickey's OBA during the same period, it was extremely consistent. Some years he got better balls to hit and he hit. Some years he didn't see good pitches and walked more. But he always got on base. Ichrio knows only one way to get on base, and when he slumps, he loses his value.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Games | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Cold Heat in Cleveland
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Joe Reaves of the Arizona Republic notes the Indians winning ways:

The Indians, who host Arizona tonight in the first game of a weekend interleague series, are one of the hottest teams in the majors, having won six consecutive games.

Since May 9, they've gone step-for-step with Philadelphia for the best record in baseball. Nobody has won more interleague games than the Indians. And only three times in the past month have they lost a game by more than two runs. "It's fun coming to the ballpark," says Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis, who's responsible for much of the fun.

They're the best AL team since May 9th? I didn't realize that, mostly because they haven't gained much ground in the standings. But it's true.

MLB winning percentage, May 9th on.
Team W L PCT
PHI 23 12 0.657
CLE 22 12 0.647
WSH 22 13 0.629
STL 22 13 0.629
CHN 21 13 0.618
NYA 20 13 0.606
TEX 18 14 0.562
CHA 19 15 0.559
SD 19 15 0.559
LAA 19 15 0.559
BAL 19 16 0.543
BOS 18 16 0.529
MIN 18 16 0.529
DET 17 16 0.515
TOR 17 17 0.500
PIT 17 17 0.500
ARI 17 18 0.486
NYN 16 18 0.471
KC 16 18 0.471
FLA 16 19 0.457
SEA 15 18 0.455
HOU 15 19 0.441
CIN 15 21 0.417
LAD 14 21 0.400
MIL 14 21 0.400
ATL 14 21 0.400
COL 14 22 0.389
OAK 13 21 0.382
SF 12 22 0.353
TB 12 22 0.353

Not a great time to play near a bay. :-)

The Indians offense has gotten better, scoring 4.7 runs per game vs. 3.7 per game before that. The pitching's improved even more, with their ERA falling 1 1/2 runs. The problem the Indians had over this stretch was within their own division. They were 3-4 vs. the Twins and 1-2 vs. the White Sox. So half their losses came against the teams they needed to beat. They'll need to turn that around to capture the wild card or the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Old Smoltz or Smoltz of Old?
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John Smoltz and Randy Johnson seem to be going through their resurgences together. Smoltz smoked the hapless Reds last night, striking out nine through 8 innings and allowing just four hits. Two of those hits were solo home runs, accounting for all the Reds scoring. His control was great, throwing 70% strikes and walking none. With the Braves rotation in tatters, Smoltz chose an excellent time to return to his glory days.

The Reds have 19 hits and six runs during this four game losing streak. They had scored 10 runs four time in their previous five games. Maybe they should not have sent down Austin Kearns. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Royal Flush
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The Kansas City Royals completed a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, a come from behind 9-6 victory. That makes the Royals 11-4 under Buddy Bell.

It's too bad KC fans missed a good series, and only 52,000 fans showed up for the three games. They missed a rare opportunity to see the Dodgers and a rare opportunity to see a KC sweep.

Players are putting up good OBA's under Bell. They are scoring runs without Mike Sweeney as well, who's now out with an arm injury. If he comes back strong that will make the offense even better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Changing Catchers
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After two great starts with Flaherty behind the plate, Joe Torre is making the catcher Johnson's primary receiver.

"We have two good catchers here, and it gives me an opportunity to know when to rest Jorge," Torre said. "As long as it seems to be comfortable, we'll continue to do it."

Flaherty has stressed to Johnson the importance of releasing his slider from a higher arm angle. That adjustment has helped the pitch dive toward a right-hander's back foot, instead of cutting side to side and staying in the swing path too long.

Early in Posada's career, Torre would go with Girardi behind the plate in important games, especially in the playoffs.
Joe G. was great at getting the best out of a pitching staff and Torre realizes it's Posada's weakness. John is trying not to make a big deal of the situation:

But Flaherty, who has not caught any pitcher for more than two consecutive starts, said he was uneasy being known as Johnson's personal catcher. Once Johnson is mechanically sound, Flaherty said, any catcher could produce the same results. Flaherty is also close with Posada and would not want to imply that he could coax more from a pitcher.

Very diplomatic. I don't believe it will bother Posada, since he's been through this before with Girardi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Today's update was sponsored by Baseball Digest Daily. Read their latest story on Roy Smith and the Dodgers here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:17 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2005
Double Digit Strikeouts
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Randy Johnson finally reaches the 10 strikeout mark with the Yankees. It's the 205th time Randy hit double digits. He's only ten games behind Nolan Ryan for the all-time record.

When Nolan retired after the 1993 season, I didn't think anyone would approach this mark. At the time, Johnson had 39. It's quite an accomplishment.

Update: Johnson finishes with 11 strikeouts, walking none and giving up just five hits. The only Pittsburgh run came on a homer that barely cleared the right field wall. That's two dominating performances in a row by The Big Unit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Yankee Stadium II
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The New York Times has a slide show of drawings of the new park. It looks to me as if they've combined the the best features of the original and the remodeled park. The nice thing is that it is perfectly recognizable as Yankee Stadium. A beautiful job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 PM | Stadiums | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hudson at Bay
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Tim Hudson is the latest Braves pitcher to hit the disabled list. It seems that team is being held together with duct tape and string right now. I wonder if Smoltz can pitch every day?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lucky Seven
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The Mets score seven runs in the top of the 5th inning against Oakland to take an 8-3 lead in the game. Those seven runs are more than the Mets have scored in any of their last eight games. The Mets are 6-2 in that stretch.

Ryan Glynn gave up the first three. He once again had a home run do him in, and Carlos Beltran hit a three run that chased Glynn from the contest. Glynn has now allowed 40 home runs in 224 1/3 career innings, or 1.60 per 9. Just to put that in perspective, when Blyleven allowed 50 in 1986, his HR per 9 was 1.65. It's a weakness that even Glynn's moving to Oakland has not solved.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June Swoon
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The San Diego Padres continue to slide in the month of June. With a 3-1 loss to the Tigers today the team's record goes to 3-11. They're scoring 2.4 runs per game while allowing 4.9. So while neither the offense nor defense is great, the onus for losing falls more on the side of offense.

Although this chart doesn't include today's game, it's clear the only person hitting at all is Ryan Klesko. The team went through a series of illnesses at the beginning of June, but the players supposedly have recovered. Maybe the virus that was going around took a bigger toll than expected.

Despite the streak, the Padres are still in first place. They're lucky to play in a rather weak division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:49 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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Two matchups tonight pit aging veterans vs. young pitchers on the rise. In New York, it's a battle of struggling lefties as Oliver Perez faces Randy Johnson. At the start of the season, I would have looked forward to this game. Johnson, however, hasn't been right. His strikeouts are down, and his last start was his first dominating one since the end of April. He's already allowed 12 home runs after giving up 18 all of last season. And the move to Yankee Stadium should have lowered his homers allowed.

Oliver Perez is striking out a ton of batters, but when they make contact the balls are falling in. Perez's K per 9 in down this season, but still above 9 per 9 IP. Yet his batting average allowed is up sixty points! Is the Pittsburgh defense that much worse? He is allowed more long hits as well. He's given up 16 homers vs. 22 all last season. Both power lefties showed improvement in their previous starts; we'll see if it continues tonight.

John Smoltz and the Braves invade Cincinnati this evening to take on Brandon Claussen and the Reds. Smoltz's strikeouts are dropping. Over his last four starts his K per 9 is 5.3, and his ERA is 4.45. That's a bad sign. Claussen's been solid in three of his last four starts. He'll have to be if the Reds offense keeps struggling as they did against Boston.

Enjoy!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Matchups | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Injuries
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As expected, Eric Gagne returned to the DL yesterday. There is speculation that the injury to his elbow is much more serious this time around and he might require Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers did okay without him earlier in the season. They were 21-14 while Gagne was on the DL, 12-17 since.

Kevin Brown's back pain returned last night. He was actually pitching well before it hit him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Injuries | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Scutaro Scuttles the Mets
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Marco Scutaro comes through where the Angels hitters couldn't. He hit the first pitch he saw into the gap in left center to score Kielty from second and give the Athletics a 3-2 victory over the Mets. The Athletics have won four of their last five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:41 AM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Capital Acquisition
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Ryan Drese appears to have needed a change of scenery. He shut the Angels down for eight innings tonight, allowing only two two hits but walking four. He had to pitch that well, as Colon only allowed 1 run in his nine innings. Now Cordero is in to try for the save. He allowed Erstad to reach on a leadoff single.

Update: Guerrero walks. That moves Erstad into scoring position with none out. One of the pitches to Guerrero rolled to the plate as Cordero fell down delivering the pitch.

Update: Anderson delivers a single to right that advances the runners one base. Bases loaded, nobody out in a 1-0 game.

Update: Cordero gets ahead of Finley 0-2, then gets him swinging on a 1-2 pitch. Bases still loaded, 1 out for Bengie Molina.

Update: Molina pops up to shallow center, Erstad is not able to advance from third. Two outs for McPherson.

Update: Cordero gets McPherson swinging. It reminds me of John Wetteland in 1996, as he seemed to always put men on before converting the save opportunity. Drese gets his first win for the Nats. Washington is now 15-2 in their last 17 games, and are 9-1 in one run contests in that stretch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:13 AM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2005
Better Grip
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Brendan Donnelly says he used the pine tar for a better grip.

Donnelly's glove has been sent to the Commissioner's office, which will determine any discipline.

Donnelly, who said he has used pine tar to better grip the ball, rather than doctor it, had a new glove Wednesday.

Like that's innocent? I would think giving the pitcher a better grip is one of the reasons pine tar is illegal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Cheating | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Giambi Game Winner
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Jason Giambi won back some fan support tonight as he hit a two run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning to complete a 7-5 comeback victory for the Yankees. The Yankees were down 4-1 and 5-2, but scored six runs in the last four innings to keep pace with the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays. It was a shot, landing in the upper deck down the right field line.

Despite his hitting problems, Giambi still has a .388 OBA. He's a valuable offensive player, just not as valuable as he was once.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | Sluggers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Back with a Vengence
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Frank Thomas' come back is both fitful and powerful. He's not back to full time status, but when he hits, he's hurting the ball. He's 1 for 3 through six innings tonight, but that one hit was his fourth home run. That's seven hits on the season for Frank, four for home runs. He's slugging over .900 so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 PM | Sluggers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Polanco Paying Off
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Looks like the trade for Placido Palanco is paying dividends for Detroit so far. Palanco went 3 for 4 tonight, and is now 10 for 20 with the Tigers. He drove in three in the Tigers 8-2 victory over the San Diego Padres. The Padres continue to pitch badly on the road. They have an ERA under 3.00 in PETCO, over 5.00 away.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Brave New Road
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The Atlanta Braves are hitting poorly on the road this year, and they're losing 7-1 in the 6th inning tonight at Texas. As you can see, a number or regulars are not hitting well on the road this year; four are below the Mendoza line. Only the injured Chipper Jones is hitting well away from Turner Field.

This surprises me. Turner doesn't seem to be the launching pad that Fulton County Stadium was. The pitchers have about the same ERA home and road. I wonder what's going on?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Four Man Rotation
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With the injury to Josh Beckett, the Marlins are moving Leiter back to the rotation and going with four starters for the next couple of weeks. With days off, they'll still be able to pitch on four days rest.

That's good news for Dontrelle Willis, who can pick up an extra start this way. If the Marlins can continue that, taking advantage of days off, Dontrelle might get enough starts to be able to win 30.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:57 PM | Strategy | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Radio Reminder
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Just a reminder that the Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up at 8 PM Eastern. I'll be playing an interview with Jamie Mottram, host of Sports Bloggers Live about the Nationals and the Orioles. I hope you tune in. Please leave any questions you'd like answered on the air in the comments.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:51 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lowell on the Rise
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Mike Lowell appears to be coming out of his early season funk. He collected three hits, including two doubles in the Marlins 15-5 pasting of the Chicago Cubs this afternoon. Lowell is 16 for 42 in June (.381 BA) with four doubles and a homer. The batting average is back, and with the power in the Marlins lineup, he doesn't need much more than a good on-base percentage to improve the offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Another Wrigley Blowout
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The Marlins are off to an 8-0 lead over the Cubs in the 4th inning. They've knocked Maddux out of the game. It's the third game in a row where one team got off to a lead and kept building it. There's time for the Cubs to stage a comeback, but that hasn't been the M.O. of this series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:23 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The weekly Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight and every Wednesday at 8 PM EDT. Check out their other sports programming as well. You can listen at any one of these links:

Listen:

You can also call in at 888-985-0555 and leave a question for the show, or stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer them on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:10 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Game of the Day
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The Diamondbacks go for the sweep of the Chicago White Sox tonight. They'll send Russ Ortiz against 10-game winner Jon Garland. The DBacks have outscored the White Sox 18-5 in these two games. Ortiz is walking over 5 batters per 9 innings, one of six pitchers with 60 innings over 5.0. The White Sox are not much of a walking team, ranking 8th in the AL in drawing free passes, so at least Ortiz is playing to their strength. Garland is at the other end of the scale, walking only 1.46 per 9. It's a good thing, since the DBacks are 2nd in the NL in drawing walks. Take away the walks, and you reduce Arizona to it's batting average, which is a managable .264. Arizona has outwalked the White Sox 7-1 in this series so far.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 AM | Matchups | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Tar on the Glove
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Frank Robinson caught Brendan Donnelly with pine tar on his glove, and Donnelly was properly ejected. Scioscia then goes over to tell off Frank Robinson, and the benches cleared. No punches were thrown, but, Jose Guillen needed to be restrained.

According to the AP story, Scioscia told Robinson he was going to check his pitchers:

Robinson, a former vice president of discipline for the major leagues, said Donnelly simply got caught cheating and Scioscia was "way off base."

"He took me by surprise when he came over to me and I took it as a threat," Robinson said. "He told me that he was going to have every one of my pitchers undressed when they came out there to the mound -- no matter who it was."

Said Scioscia: "I told Frank we were going to undress his pitchers when they were on the mound to see if they had any pine tar in their glove. He obviously wasn't happy. He was screaming. We weren't making a lunch date."

Mike, your pitcher got caught cheating. You should be upset with him. Instead, you fired up the Nationals and your good friend Jose Guillen hurt your cause with a home run. Your team was winning at that point, then lost the game. You should have chewed Donnelly out instead of making statements like this:

Scioscia acknowledged that the use of pine tar is against the rules, but said it is "used around baseball," doesn't alter the flight of the ball and usually isn't an issue.

Sure it doesn't. And I'm sure it keeps the ball sparkling clean, too. Robinson deserves an apology.

Update: A reader notes in the comments that Donnelly was caught with a spare ball in his pocket against the Red Sox. That seems more suspicious now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Cheating | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Be Agressive
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John Eisenberg of the Baltimore Sun wants the Orioles to be agressive in going after more pitching. He points out the teams' complacency lately:

Manager Lee Mazzilli said after the trip that he was pleased the team didn't lose ground. Huh? The Orioles easily could have gained ground, having played mostly losing teams while the Yankees and Sox muddled along. For the Orioles, the lost series in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati represented blown chances to gain ground.

With all due respect, the manager should be pushing his division-leading team to continue surpassing expectations rather than allowing it to settle for treading water.

You can be sure the Yankees and Red Sox aren't satisfied with weeks in which they muddle along slightly below .500.

Exactly right. I saw a quote from Lloyd McClendon last week in the subject of the Pirates reaching the .500 mark:

"All it means it that we've won half of our games," he said. "That's not our goal. I don't know if it's significant at all in June."

I agree with Eisenberg's article. The Orioles have the rare opportunity to outrace the Red Sox and Yankees. It's time to pull out all stops and go for the division win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Trades | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Training the Hurt
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The White Sox trainer discusses why Frank Thomas will continue to have minor injuries.

So says longtime White Sox head athletic trainer Herm Schneider, who knows Thomas' career medical history and the hitter's stubborn ways.

"Frank's body is changing, and he needs to understand there are certain things he can't do that he used to," Schneider said Tuesday. "He tries to lift (weights) before games, early in the day, and his legs get tight. He has a tendency to drink a lot of coffee, which dehydrates you in warm weather.

"Those kinds of things, he needs to back off and change. But Frank has a tendency not to listen until the horse is out of the barn."


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Blaton Throws Blanks
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Joe Blanton did indeed shut down the Mets last night, with a little help from his friends. Joe lasted seven innings, allowing just three hits while striking out four. Calero and Street finished off the shutout, Street pitching 1 2/3 for his 4th save.

It was the 6th shutout of the day. That's the first time that's happened since Sept. 20, 1998. Complete games are also still way ahead of last year. Through the same number of days into the season, 2.7% of starts were completed last year, 4.3% this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Daily Dose of Data
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 14, 2005
Dodgers No Draw
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The Dodgers are coming to town! Let's all go out and see of the most storied franchises in the history of baseball! Except if you're in Kansas City. Just 15,579 turned out to see a 3-2 Royals victory over Los Angeles. If bringing a great, historic team to Kansas City can't fill a stadium, maybe baseball shouldn't be in KC.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Blanton Blanks
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Those of you staying up late (or living out west), keep your eye on Joe Blanton tonight. He's retried twelve straight batters to start the game. He's struck out three and has thrown only 42 pitches. The Athletics lead the Mets 1-0, but have the bases loaded with 1 out in the fourth.

Update: Ellis doubles in two. It's three nothing and the A's have two men in scoring position.

Update: Blanton gives up a hit with two outs in the fifth. The shutout is still in order.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Heart and Sergio
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The Cubs enjoy the biggest blow out of the night so far, crushing the Marlins 14-0. The heart of the order, Lee, Burnitz and Ramirez combined to go 9 for 13 with 3 doubles and 3 home runs. They drove in seven and scored six. That was the offense.

On the other side of the ball, Serigo Mitre posted the fourth complete game shutout of the night, and the fifth shutout overall. Mitre kept his pitch count low, walking none and strikout out only three on 99 pitches, 73 for strikes. That's two starts in a row without allowing a runner across the plate for Sergio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
M00se G00se Eggs
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Mike Mussina gets the third complete game shutout of the evening and the fourth over all. It's the third time this season there have been four shutouts in one day. There were 12 such days last year. Like Carpenter and Ohka, Mike threw strikes, 76 of 109 pitches. He also received more than enough support, and the New Yorkers scored nine runs. The Yankees put 21 men on base with 12 hits, seven walks, and two hit batters (both A-Rod). The Yankees put more men on base with walks than the Mussina allowed altogether. It's a win that should make everyone happy for a day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Team Effort
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The Red Sox pitching staff posts the third shutout of the evening, defeating the Cincinnati Reds 7-0. Wells, Timlin and Foulke combined to allow just one hit and two walks (all by Wells) while striking out eight. Two one hitters, three shutouts and two more shutouts in the works. Quite a night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ohka's 0s
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Toma Ohka pays immediate dividends to the Milwaukee Brewers with a complete game shutout of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Ohka gave up nine hits, but walked none. Seven of the hits were singles. Like Carpenter with the Cardinals, Ohka was very efficient, using just 98 pitches to keep the Devil Rays off the board, 69 of them strikes. Early returns make the deal a good one for both clubs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
If I Had a Hammer
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Chris Carpenter finishes off the Blue Jays, allowing just one walk and one hit as he gets the complete game shutout. He struck out 10 and threw only 95 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two New Stadiums
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With the Mets announcing a new stadium plan earlier, the Yankees will announce a new stadium plan tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | Stadiums | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Chen vs. Pettitte
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For most of the game, Andy Pettitte out pitched Bruce Chen. He was more efficient and walked none to Chen's four. But in the sixth, the Orioles put together some hits, including Tejada's 18th home run. And although he's given up four walks, Chen's only allowed three hits. He leads the Astros 3-0 in the 7th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wells and Carpenter
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Since Mussina's no-hit bid is over, I thought I'd move the no-hitter thread to a new post.

Update: With two out in the 6th, Ryan Freel lines an easy one into right center field for a single, ending David Wells no-hitter bid.

Update: With two out in the 6th, Chris Carpenter allows his first hit, a double by #9 hitter Russ Adams. Carpenter has nine strikeouts and is being very efficient tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hee-ve Hoo
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Hee Seop Choi smashes another home run in the top of the first to put the Dodgers up 1-0. He's now homered in four straight games, and has seven in that time frame.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | Sluggers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mussina and Wells
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Mike Mussina is battling two Wells tonight. In the Bronx, Mussina is facing Kip Wells and has retired 11 straight batters. In Boston, former Yankee David Wells set down the first nine he's faced. We'll see who can go longer without allowing a hit.

Update: Mussina strikes out Bay to end the inning. He used only six pitches to get the side in the fourth inning. He's averaging nine pitches an inning this game, and has thrown 27 of 37 pitches for strikes.

Update: Griffey grounds into a force play to end the 4th. Wells lost the perfecto but still has the no-no.

Update: Chris Carpenter also has a no-hitter through three, but he's walked a batter.

Update: Chris Carpenter allows nothing in the fourth. He has six strikeouts. Meanwhile, with two out in the 4th, Wells hits a batter.

Update: Daryle Ward gets the first hit for the Pirates with two out in the 5th, a scorcher down the right field line.

Update: They just showed a great comparison in the Cardinals-Blue Jays game. The broadcast put up side by side stills of Carpenter's arm angle on the curve and and the fastball. The arm angle is exactly the same. The only difference is how the ball is being released.

Wells gets his fifth strikeout as he retires the side in order in the fifth inning. Carpenter finishes the 5th as well without a hit, and has eight strikeouts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Head Away from the Rockies
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There's a good article in the New York Times on trying to build a team in Coors Field. What the article makes clear is that no one has a clue how to do it. Dan O'Dowd states the big problem:

O'Dowd added that the altitude wore down players physically so that they must be rested more, but that the fatigue on starting pitchers forced relievers to work more.

Maybe in Denver you should be allowed to carry a 30-man roster. Leo Mazzone talks about what happens to pitchers:

Leo Mazzone, the Braves' pitching coach, said Hampton was in a state similar to shell shock when he left Colorado after two seasons and joined the Braves.

"He was trying to make the ball do way more than what it could do," Mazzone said. "That's what happens when you go to that place, and it's the reason why a lot of guys struggle. They overexaggerate everything to try to make it work. I don't really think it ever will."

The more I think about the Coors problem, the more I believe the Rockies can only win by being a super offensive team. They can't be content with hitters who look great at home but stink on the road. They need to find four of five superstars who will just pound the ball and push the team toward 8 runs a game at home. Then just hope the pitching can hang on. They need an infield of A-Rod, Tejada, Kent and Helton.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:36 PM | Stadiums | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Water the Wilter
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Dusty Baker should have thought of this.

Estes battled intestinal problems throughout the day, but it didn't appear to zap his strength in the slightest in Chicago, where the White Sox, who own the best record in baseball, are 19-9.

"I kept hydrated all game, which really helped, and I didn't have any real stressful innings," Estes said. "For the most part, they were hitting the ball at our guys in the infield, and we were catching it. That's what it takes against a team like that. It helps when the ball is hit right at guys."

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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The Astros and Orioles offer one of the best pitching matchups of the day as Andy Pettitte faces Bruce Chen. With four innings tonight, Andy will match his total for last season. The difference in health can be seen in his control; he's walked about 1/2 the batters he did last season. Chen's been giving the Orioles solid six inning performances. He hasn't gotten solid relief from the bullpen, however, who have given up 20 earned runs in 26 2/3 inning in relief of Bruce.

The Mets visit the site of their 1973 World Series defeat. Leading 3 games to 2, the Mets lost games six and seven in Oakland to hand the A's their second world championship in their run of three. Reggie Jackson went 4 for 8 in the two games and Hunter out pitched Seaver in game six.

It won't be Hunter and Seaver tonight as Tom Glavine faces Joe Blanton. Blanton's already given up 11 homers this year and has more walks than strikeouts. Glavine's allowed a .356 BA and a .481 slugging percentage with men on base this season.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:59 PM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Can Wi11is Win 30
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Dontrelle Willis picked up win number 11 last night, an easy 9-1 win over the Cubs. The Marlins played their 61st game last night, putting Dontrelle on a pace for 29 wins. One thing working in Dontrelle's favor is that he's gotten a decision in every start he's made. That's unusual these days. But he usually goes deep in his wins, lessening the chance of his bullpen blowing a game. With Al Leiter moving to the bullpen, I wonder if McKeon will start using a modified four man rotation, skipping the fifth stater when the team has a day off? That could get Willis a couple of more starts without wearing him out.

Correction: He beat the Cubs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Pitchers | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)
Blow Out Monday
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Close games were rare last night as the average score of the evening was 7.25-2.25. The closest game was Tampa Bay's 5-3 victory over the Brewers. The Devil Rays have won two in a row since Lou Piniella's ripping of upper management. In an indirect way, he ripped the players, basically telling them they're not very good. Maybe that message got through loud and clear.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Games | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Icing on the Angel Cake
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Vlad Guerrero's return meshed nicely with the gearing up of the Angels offense. After two lackluster months, LA/Anaheim picked it up in June, thanks mostly to Garret Anderson and Darin Erstad finding a groove. Erstad is actually on a 14 game hitting streak in which he's scored 15 and driven in 12. The new found pop makes the Angels 7-4 in June, and was in evidence as they trounced the Nationals 11-1 last night. The only Angels without hits were the late inning defensive replacements.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Why Rush?
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There seems to be some controversy about Barry Bonds' rehabilitation.

Barry Bonds' brief workouts might have been ill-advised and premature.

San Francisco Giants trainer Stan Conte told the San Jose Mercury News on Monday that the infectious-disease specialist treating Bonds recommended that the left fielder should avoid "significant-impact activities." Those activities include the light resistance and agility drills Bonds performed over the weekend. Robert Armstrong made the recommendation after reviewing Bonds' latest blood tests, MRI exam and X-rays.

Conte, however, told the paper that no final decision will be made on the sluggers' rehab until Armstrong consults with Arthur Ting, Bonds' primary physician. Conte told the newspaper that Ting "will make the determination on what Barry can do and what he can't do."



I appreciate that Bonds wants to get back quickly, help his team out of their funk, and persue Ruth and Aaron. I also appreciate that doctors tend to be very conservative with injuries and Bonds should know his own body best. But so far, he's pushed himself too much and each time he's ended up with a set back. Barry needs to find the quickest path back to health, and in this case, the slow, steady route might be the quickest.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
General vs. Field Manager
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Benjamin Kabak compares Moneyball and 3 Nights in August.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tuesday Data Dump
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2005
Long Halladay
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Roy Halladay completes his fifth game of the season, a 4-1 victory over the Cardinals. No other AL starter has more than 2. He's now tied with Mark Mulder for the 2nd most complete games since the start of the 2003 season with 15. Livan Hernandez leads the majors with 18 in that time span.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Life in the Jason Lane
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Jason Lane added to his June power numbers with a two run homer against the Orioles. That gives him 12 hits in June, nine for extra bases, including four home runs. He's been the top slugger on the Astros this month, a month in which the team's had a good slugging percentage, .447 entering today.

Update: Ensberg adds a two-run shot, his fifth of the month. Depite the two homers, the Astros are down to the Orioles 7-4 in the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM | Sluggers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bringing In the Fans
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The Cubdom looks at how to measure how many fans a visiting team brings in to a ballpark, and finds it good to have the Red Sox come to town.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 PM | Attendance | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Database Improvements
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When I'm using the comparison functions of the Day by Day Database, I've wanted to click on a player's name and see his log for that set of parameters. It's now coded and tested. You can try it here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | Statistics | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Death of a Bat Maker
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Sean Kirst remembers Joe Kren. Joe was the last member of the Kren family, baseball bat manufacturers in Syracuse.

There was one catch. Legend can be a hard thing to prove. Joe said most famous ballplayers of his day were under contract to Hillerich & Bradsby, makers of Louisville Sluggers. If they preferred Kren bats, he said, they often used them on the sly, which is why so many people forgot about the Krens.

The quest led me to Dave Bushing, an Illinois bat collector with the proof to back up Joe. Bushing provided records from a 1930s court case between Hillerich & Bradsby and a smaller rival. Lou Gehrig, the baseball immortal, was called to testify. He was asked under oath if he knew of major leaguers who used different kinds of bats.

Sure, Gehrig said. Some players used Krens.

There's also a good anecdote about Sammy Sosa and corking. Well worth the read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 PM | Deaths | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Rollins Rolling in Dough
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The Philadelphia Phillies signed Jimmy Rollins to a long term contract. They will play him $40 million dollars from 2006-2010, with a club option for 2011. Is this a good deal?

The positives:

  • Rollins is young. His seasonal age is 26. The Phillies will have him through the peak of his abilities.
  • He has some pop. He's hit over 40 doubles the last two seasons.
  • He's a good base stealer with a career stolen base percentage of 76%.
  • He's okay defensively, especailly on balls in the air.

On the negative side, he has a poor on-base average. For his career, he's at .323. His career high was .348 in 2004.

Given that shortstops were signing over the winter for well over $10 million a year, the Phillies got a good deal. He can play the position, he can contribute to the offense, and the Phillies aren't overpaying. He's also been extremely healthy, playing over 150 games each of the last four seasons. Looks like a good move to me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:08 PM | Transactions | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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1975 Will be revisited in Boston tonight as the Red Sox host the Reds in a rematch of the World Series of that year. And things are shaping up to be a slugfest. The Reds lead the majors with 22 home runs in the month of June. Red Sox starter Matt Clement gave up just 1 homer in April, 1 in May, but 3 in June. Reds starter Eric Milton has served up 22 gopher balls this season, four more than any other pitcher.

On the West Coast, a battle of first place clubs as the Angels host the Nationals. Vlad Guerrero gets to visit with some of his old teammates on the team formerly known as the Expos. Vlad is 5 for 12 since his return from the DL, but without an extra-base hit. Junior Spivey has a great line since joining the Nats; 1 for 6 with three walks and a homer for a .444 OBA and a .667 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

Correction: As pointed out in the comments, Vlad had 2 walks since his return from the DL.

Time is running out on the special offer at the Baseball Musings Ticket Store. Through June 16, 2005, save 5% with offer code bmintro. It's more than baseball tickets. You'll find seats for the NBA Finals, the upcoming NFL season as well as concerts and shows. Be sure to have a look and take advantage of this special offer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | Matchups | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Giants Steps
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It looks like the Giants youth movement is underway. It's already happened in the pen, and now position players are being shuffled:

The Giants also planned to recall a position player from Fresno, probably an outfielder, and make a corresponding move with Marquis Grissom, perhaps another trip to the disabled list. They held off that decision after third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo sustained what head trainer Stan Conte termed a "fairly significant" right quadriceps strain running out a double-play grounder in the eighth inning.

Now, the front office might have to audible and bring up an infielder instead, although the club could move Pedro Feliz to third base and recall searing Fresno outfielder Todd Linden, whom the Giants will promote only if he can play every day.

At the same time, J.T. Snow said Sunday he was called into manager Felipe Alou's office last week and told Lance Niekro will get the majority of starts at first base, even against right-handed pitchers.

Furthermore, general manager Brian Sabean said any major trades he makes this summer likely would bring younger players who would have a future in San Francisco, rather than seasoned short-timers typically acquired for a playoff push.

I wonder what happens to Bonds in this scenario. This team was put together to try to win a World Championship this year or next. That's probably not going to happen now. Does Bonds stay with the Giants to just chase Aaron, or does he ask for a trade to an AL team so he can DH and save his knees, break the record and possibly win a World Series ring? Can you see Bonds in the Bronx?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Transactions | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Reds Hot Offense
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The Cincinnati Reds are finally realizing their offensive potential this June. They're getting on base at a .369 clip and slugging an amazing .530 as a team this month. They have the most home runs in the majors this June:

June 2005Home Runs
Reds22
Phillies21
Dodgers21
Orioles18
Diamondbacks18

Unfortunately, the pitching has gotten worse. A 6.49 ERA this month means the Reds are just 5-5. Still they were 10 games under .500 coming into June. One step at a time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Avoiding the Age Cycle
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Tony Massarotti in the Boston Herald suggests the best course for the Red Sox this season may be to do nothing:

With the Red Sox now 62 games into their season, there are precisely seven weeks remaining until the annual July 31 trading deadline. That is the point by which Epstein must decide whether these Red Sox can again be championship material, whether they are worth parting with top prospects like Hanley Ramirez and Jon Papelbon. If they are not, here is what Epstein should do: Nothing. ``We're not afraid to trade prospects,'' Epstein said. ``But we take very seriously the impact players in our farm system can and will have on our major league team for years to come.''

After winning the championship last season, I thought it was possible for the Red Sox to let their free agents go and start building the team internally. Winning gave them the opportunity to step back and build for the long term. They could take three or four years to develop a strong, young core that could then be used to take them into contention for years in the future. But they decided to try to repeat.

And now they are in an interesting situation. They are in the race, but not one of the best teams in the race. If they make the playoffs, they can win with some good luck. There is no super team in the American League this season. So a small improvement in the Red Sox might lead to consecutive World Series victories.

But how much are they willing to spend for that? In New York, the answer would be anything. But the Yankees are now in a cycle of aging. Young players are traded for older stars. Older free agents are brought in to fill gaps. The team gets older, talent declines, injuries accumulate, and the team doesn't win. The Red Sox should avoid this. Sometimes it's better not to win this year if you believe you can win for the next decade.

So Massarotti's advice is good advice. The Red Sox no longer need to win now. They are fortunate to possess enought talent that even without moves, they may make the playoffs and win the series anyway. Theo needs to keep his eye on the long term success of the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Closer to Last Year
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Offense is still down from last year, but the gap is closing.

Through 10 weeks20042005
Runs Per Game9.69.2
Home Runs Per Game2.22.0

The smaller gap from April is do to a fall off in last year's numbers, rather than an increase in 2005 offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 AM | Offense | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rainy Days and Mondays
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 12, 2005
Rusch Job
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Glendon Rusch entered today with the best HR allowed per 9 innings in the National League. He had allowed just one dinger in 61 innings. No one told the Red Sox. Kevin Youkilis took him deep in the first, and Johnny Damon just added a solo shot of his own to make the score 2-0 Red Sox. Rusch still has not allowed a homer on the road this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Beam Him Out
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How long does Kirk Rueter pitch badly before the Giants decide he's no longer effective. Rueter's never been a great strikeout pitcher, but through 1998 he usually struck out twice as many as he walked. Since then, however, his strikeouts have been coming down. For the third season in a row, he's walking more than he's striking out. Today he walked four and struck out two to bring his season totals to 29 walks and 16 Ks. His ERA is up to 4.88 and he 2-5 after allowing the Indians five runs this afternoon. If this keeps up, his days as a major league pitcher are numbered.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM | Pitchers | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Choi Joy
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Hee Seop Choi was much of the Dodgers offense today, hitting three solo home runs as the Dodgers defeated the Twins 4-3. I thought three homers at Dodger Stadium might be rare, so use the Day By Day Database to look at three home run games there since 1974. Today's was the 7th since the start of the 1974 season. Of the six preceeding three homer games, only one was accomplished by a Dodger; Shawn Green in 2001. Dave Kingman did it twice. The last was by Mike Lieberthal on Aug. 8, 2002.

Correction:Fixed the score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM |