Baseball Musings: The Yankee Clippard

February 09, 2007

The Yankee Clippard

John Sickels is thinking about Tyler Clippard. John copies the excerpt from his book which rates Clippard a B. That's a little surprising to me given his strikeouts, walks and home runs are so good.

Others have similar views. My friend Deric McKamey in his 2007 Minor League Baseball Analyst rates Clippard as a potential number five starter, and points out that he gets his strikeouts with movement and deception, not pure velocity. Baseball America ranks Clippard as the number seven Yankees prospect, projects him as a fourth starter, and notes that he "pitches backward," using fastballs in breaking ball counts and vice versa.

Does the way you get strikeouts really matter? Here's Bill James from an interview I conducted with him a few years ago (the question was in regard to the Rockies pitching staff):

Baseball Musings: Given what we now know about the relationship to balls put into play and hits allowed, doesn't this strategy also require a very good infield defense? Would a better strategy be to have fireballers who can strikeout 9 a game?
Bill James: This assumes that fastballs get strikeouts. This is untrue. Breaking pitches get strikeouts. Breaking pitches are difficult to throw at high altitudes (a fact, incidentally, which has been known by baseball pitchers at least since the 1920s. In the 1920s there are published comments about how hard it is to throw a breaking pitch in Salt Lake City.) But there is a valid point in there--which is, that if the value of offense increases per ball in play, then the value of fielding skill also increases.

In other words, deception gets strikeouts. Pedro Martinez is an excellent strikeout pitcher because his change up is so good. It's the delta and the arm motion that matter. If you throw a 90 mile an hour fastball and an 80 mile an hour changeup with the same motion, you're going to get batters to swing and miss. Am I missing something, or isn't the fact that Clippard is striking out a lot of batter more important than how he's doing it? If he can throw off the timing of hitters that much, he's doing something right.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:29 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Thank you for that, everywhere I read that Clippard will never make it because he doesnt throw high 90's. He throws 88-92 with a very good change and an above average curve, at 21 he struck out 9+ a game in AA that is pretty impressive obviously the guy knows what he is doing. IMHO the only real question mark about him is the fly ball tendencies. I think he could be a Javier Vazquez a guy who eats innings, posts a mid 4 ERA and strikes out a bunch of people.

Posted by: Kyle at February 9, 2007 09:03 PM

funny, mike mussina strikes a lot more guys out now throwing 90 than he did 10 years ago throwing 95 and with a better curve.

Posted by: kt at February 9, 2007 09:33 PM

If you can get strikeouts at the major league level it doesn't matter how you do it. In the minors, though, it does matter how, because "how" influences how likely you are to keep doing it as you move up.

One of the reason scouts dismiss pitchers who are primarily deceptive is that major league hitters routinely eat these guys for lunch. Unless you've got something that a major league hitter can't actually hit (like, a great curveball, a heavy sinker, or a hard, late-breaking slider - those don't have to be really fast), it's very hard to get by on finesse. And if you're a starter, you've got to mix it up well even with an out pitch.

It also limits your ceiling, because without a true out pitch, you'll see a sharp drop in strikeouts as the competition gets stiffer. See Yusimero Petit as a recent example.

Lastly, how much is Clippard expected to fill out? Is he likely to gain 2-3MPH on his heater as he grows older? If he is, then he's got a much better chance to translate those numbers into results in the bigs.

Now, I know very little about Tyler Clippard, and maybe he is an exception to this trend. But pitchers with great numbers and mediocre stuff tend to have low ceilings, and that seems to be what Sickels is talking about.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at February 9, 2007 09:41 PM

I wonder if playing for the Yankees may make landing a SP job more difficult for him. I don't know much about his stuff, but if he relies mostly on guile and intelligence to succeed...the learning curve in the AL East could be pretty brutal. Not trying to take anything away from him, but it's one thing to strike out 9+ in AA, and quite another to keep AL hitters off balance. I don't know what kind of leash he'll be on when he gets to New York, but it seems like he may be the type who needs a long one until he gets used to the league.

Posted by: the other josh at February 9, 2007 09:45 PM

I've never seen Clippard pitch in person, but I would agree with those above. Striking out AA hitters with a bunch of offspeed stuff and no great fastball is one thing, but it's entirely another to do the same to MLB hitters. When he gets to the majors, after a few starts he'll see teams just sitting on breaking stuff and he might not have the fastball speed to blow it by them.

Minor league hitters just sit on dead red most of the time.

Posted by: rob at February 10, 2007 08:28 AM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (7)
Agents (11)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (207)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (168)
Base Running (77)
Baseball (1580)
Baseball Jerks (212)
Blogs (721)
Books (109)
Broadcasts (551)
Charity (41)
Cheating (573)
Collectibles (14)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (36)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (88)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (150)
Defense (358)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (721)
Draft (62)
Equipment (21)
Fan Rant (44)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (56)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (2)
Free Agents (576)
Games (5548)
History (93)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (56)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (125)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1053)
International (70)
Interviews (162)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1207)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (43)
Minor Leagues (11)
Movies (9)
News Media (87)
Oddities (1)
Offense (209)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (296)
Owners (58)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2850)
Players (1441)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (59)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (134)
Probabilistic Model of Range (102)
Public Relations (8)
Records (151)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (23)
Salaries (8)
Scheduling (21)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (104)
Stadiums (244)
Standings (25)
Statistics (981)
steroids (1)
Strategy (167)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (894)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (47)
Trades (663)
Transactions (254)
Umpires (52)
Uniforms (16)
Union (19)
Welcome! (3)
women (3)
World Cup (148)
World Series (656)

By Month:
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Takkle High School Sports

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.