Wezen-Ball reminds us of Snoopy's pursuit of Babe Ruth's home run record. Charles Schultz did a nice job of skewering those who hated Aaron as he approached 714 home runs.

It's amazing how much negative publicity pursuing the home run record engenders. Even people who were not overtly racist in their reaction to Aaron passing Ruth talked about how Ruth was the better hitter, how he accomplished his feat in fewer at bats and hit for a higher average. Over the years, of course, Aaron became the venerated figure, so whoever approached Henry's record was going to come in for some scrutiny. If it takes 30 years to pass Bonds, I wonder if that person will be welcomed, or if the next generation of sports writers will be as protective of Barry as their ancestors were of Ruth and Aaron.

Joe Posnanski looks at the all-time leaders in terms of the 20-year rule, but has this to say about the all-time wins leader:

Impressiveness quotient: Unimaginable. Of course, Cy Young was simply playing a different game than baseball now. Look:

- He 72 games before the pitcher's mound was moved back to 60 feet, 6 inches.
- He won 267 games when when home plate was still a square.
- He won 351 games before foul balls were considered strikes.
- And, of course, he won all 511 games before the spitball was abolished, and most of those games when scuffing the ball was pretty common practice.

Frankly, it's pretty ridiculous, considering all the changes, that Young's record is considered the official one. It would probably be more realistic to consider Walter Johnson's 417 wins (21 wins ever year for 20 years) as the official record, and that record, while it would be unthinkable to break to it now, would at least be POSSIBLE to break. Greg Maddux announces his retirement today with 355 victories -- 62 victories short.

There are a number of records, especially those in the National League, that are listed as all-time and since 1900. Maybe we should do this for wins also.

Mike Mussina pitches six shutout innings against the Red Sox, and the Yankees bullpen withstands an eighth inninng comeback attempt as New York defeats Boston 6-2. Mike wins his 20th game of the season, setting a new record for oldest player to record his first 20 win season. Mussina won 19 games twice before and 18 games three times previously. His career win total now stands at 270.

Should he go on? He could retire now, going out on a very high note. However, he has learned to be an effective junk pitcher. Having mastered changing speeds at a lower velocity than in the past, Mike could be effective for a few more years, like Jamie Moyer (previous holder of the above record). If he could hold on for three more years, he'd likely reach 300 wins, and no one would argue about his Hall of Fame credentials. We'll see how the winter plays out for Mike.

Hank Blalock doubled in the third inning against the Angels Saturday night, the 374th double of the season for the Rangers. That breaks the major league record held by three teams. The Rangers employed a number of players with a high doubles total in a limited amount of games. Ian Kinsler was on pace for over 50, over a season, and Milton Bradley could have finished with over 40. Their substitutes, however, did a very good job in knocking out the two baggers. It's a record that's held for 78 years, and despite the longer schedule, teams could only tie before this season.

Now, if they can get the pitchers to give up less than 352 doubles, they might have a winning team.

I've seen this headline on an AP story twice tonight:

A-Rod passed the Babe for most seasons with 35 HRs

That's not true. The article has it right:

Alex Rodriguez homered to pass Babe Ruth and become the only player with 35 homers and 100 RBIs in 12 seasons, and the New York Yankees slowed the Chicago White Sox's pursuit of the AL Central crown with a 5-1 victory Wednesday night.

Ruth has twelve 35 home run seasons, but in one of those, 1922, he drove in 99 runs. Aaron had eleven 35 home run seasons and Bonds reached that mark 10 times.

Derek Jeter collected three hits so far this afternoon, his third three-hit game in a row. The three hits this afternoon ties him with Lou Gehrig for the most hits at Yankee Stadium, 1269.

Francisco Rodriguez puts two batters on, but strikes out Wladimir Balentien and Raul Ibanez with men on 2nd and 3rd to preserve a 5-2 Angels and earn his 58th save. That breaks Bobby Thigpen's 1990 record. Congratulations to K-Rod on breaking the single season save record!

K-Rod hasn't pitched a perfect outing since 8/29, however. I wonder if the Angels are going to shut him down for a few days to get him ready for the playoffs. This was his 70th appearance of the season, a new career high with two weeks to go. The Angels might decide home field is very important and keep using him in close games, however.

The Angels were leading 7-0 going into the eighth, and I almost went to bed. But Spier allows three runs in the eighth, and Shields puts the first two on in the ninth. That set up a save situation, and in comes Francisco Rodriguez to try to tie the record. Impressively, he gets Ichiro to ground into a double play, but gives up singles to Jeremy Reed and Adrian Beltre. He'll now face Raul Ibanez as the tying run.

Update: Ibanez breaks his bat and grounds out to first. K-Rod ties Bobby Thigpen for the single season save record. It wasn't pretty, but once again Rodriguez gets the job done. Congratulations to Francisco Rodriguez on his achievement!

Stephen Drew and Adrian Beltre both hit for the cycle Monday:

It was the first time two players hit for the cycle on the same day since Sept. 17, 1920, when Bobby Veach of the Detroit Tigers and George Burns of the New York Giants did it, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Both players collected five hits, Drew with two doubles and Beltre with two singles. Stephen did a bit less damage with his cycle, scoring three times and driving in one, while Beltre scored five runs and drove in three. Adrian is on a nice eight game hitting streak in which he's scored 12 runs and driven in 9. This is more of what Seattle expected when they signed him for the 2005 season.

Drew's hits are coming in bunches lately. It's his third multi-hit game in a row and he has ten of those in his last 17 games. Both these teams need these two players to hit well down the stretch, in Seattle's case to end the year on a high note, and for Arizona to hold off the Dodgers in the NL West.

Update: Dave Cameron notes how similar the two are as hitters.

Ichiro Suzuki singled in the first inning tonight, bringing his combined hit total in the Japanese and North American major leagues to 3000. Congratulations to Ichiro on reaching that career milestone at only 34 years old.

Brad Ziegler set a record Sunday:

Ziegler pitched two scoreless innings Sunday afternoon at the Coliseum to take sole possession of the record for consecutive shutout innings at the start of a career. His 27 scoreless innings passed George McQuillan, who set the mark at 25 with Philadelphia in 1907.

On a day that fellow reliever Jerry Blevins and closer Huston Street had their own milestones in the A's 6-5 win over Texas, it was Ziegler who made the most significant mark on baseball history and was asked to send his cleats and hat to Cooperstown.

"I've never had anything handed to me in my career, and that makes this even more satisfying," said Ziegler, who twice has endured skull fractures, was released and relegated to an independent league and was asked to completely revamp the pitching delivery after his stellar minor-league numbers went unnoticed.

He's given up very few hits for a pitcher with low strikeout and walk totals. Opponents are hitting just .188 against him with no extra-base hits. He's striking out just 4.3 per nine innings. The Oakland defense must be playing great behind him.

David Ortiz's home run ties him with Jimmie Foxx for 8th on the Red Sox home run list. He should be sixth soon enough as Doerr has 223 and Vaughn is sixth with 230.

Chipper Jones went 0 for 2 Sunday to lower his average to .376. The probability of his hitting .400 gets a bump down, making the odds about 1 in 18,000. Here's the latest graph of the probability of Jones hitting .400.

Chipper Jones went 3 for 4 Saturday night to raise his average to .378. The probability of his hitting .400 gets a bump, making the odds long but below 1 in 10,000. Here's the latest graph of the probability of Jones hitting .400.

Alex Rodriguez hit his 537th home run of his career against Toronto this afternoon, breaking the tie for 13th place with Mickey Mantle. Next up in twelfth place is Mike Schmidt at 548. The Yankees offense worked well today, defeating Toronto 9-4. Jeter, A-Rod and Gardner each drove in three runs.

The Braves fall 6-1 to the Astros as Chipper Jones goes 0 for 4. The probability of his hitting .400 drops to .00020, or 1 in 5000. As you can see from the latest graph of Chipper's probability of hitting .400, the last time he got this low he did bounce back.

The Braves keep sliding, however. They've lost six of their last seven games and stand six games under .500.

The Hall of Fame will not display the ball Barry Bonds hit for his 756th home run.

"The owner's previous commitment to unconditionally donate the baseball has changed to a loan. As a result, the Hall of Fame will not be able to accept the baseball," the Hall said in a statement.

"Should the owner choose to unconditionally donate the ball to the museum at a future date, we would be delighted and of course, accept his offer," it said.

Good.

Long time commenter Devon Young started his own blog. His first entry notes that Ichiro Suzuki is just 30 hits away from 3000 if you combine his Japanese and MLB statistics. If he can sustain his 200+ hit level for a few more years, he may reach 3000 in the majors. Given he came to the majors late, that would be a fantastic feat. He's also a good bet to pick up more hits than Pete Rose when you combine his entire career.

Chipper Jones did not play today, which increased the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His batting average remains at .393 but his sitting out reduced the expected number of at bats he'll accumulate this season. His current probability is 0.00037, or about 1 in 2700.

Chipper Jones felt well enough to pinch hit Friday night, and delivered an RBI single in the eighth inning. That cut Seattle's lead to 4-3, and the Braves won the game with two runs off Batista trying to close in the 9th.

The 1 for 1 for Chipper increased the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. He increase his batting average to .393 and reduced the number of expected at bats this season by not playing much. His current probability is 0.00029, or about 1 in 3450.

The Mariners crushed the Braves 10-2 Friday night, and Chipper's chance of hitting .400 lost ground as well. Jones went 0 for 2 with a walk, and had to leave the game after aggravating his quad injury. He expects to miss the next two games.

The hitless night dropped the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00020, or about 1 in 5000.

The Braves fell to the Rangers 5-4 Thursday afternoon, and Chipper Jones fell below .400. His 0 for 4 dropped his batting average to .394. That's the first time Chipper ended the day below .400 since April 12th. That's an impressive two month run over the magic batting average. Taking the collar dropped the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00028, or about 1 in 3570.

A big ninth inning for the Braves breaks a 2-2 tie and Atlanta defeats Texas 5-2. The three run ninth, however, hurts Chipper a little bit. He was 2 for 4, but the offense caused him to come up a fifth time, and he made the last out of the inning to go 2 for 5 and remain exactly at .400. Despite the two hits, the five at bats increased his projected number of at bats this season, so his probability of hitting .400 went down, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00045, or about 1 in 2220.

Chipper Jones went 2 for 4 Monday night, raising his batting average to .403. Despite this, the performance lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00047, or about 1 in 2125. With four at bats today, his projected at bats for the season went up, accounting for the slight drop in probability.

The following table show the kinds of slumps Chipper would need to suffer to lower his BA to .400:

Chipper Jones failed to pick up a hit Sunday night, going 0 for 4 as the Braves lose to the Angels 2-0. He's now batting .402 and the poor performance lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00048, or about 1 in 2080. His probability of hitting .400 was cut in half from yesterday.

The following table show the kinds of slumps Chipper would need to suffer to lower his BA to .400:

Chipper is in danger of falling under .400 on Monday for the first time since games of April 12th. His lowest BA since then was exactly .400 (52/130) through games of May 10th. He always seems to bounce off the .400 mark, but he's a bit banged up right now. The good news for Jones is that the Braves play at Coors tomorrow, where Chipper is a career .324 hitter. Over the last seven seasons Chipper's hit even better there, .354.

Chipper Jones failed to pick up a hit Saturday night, going 0 for 3 with two walks. He's now batting .409 and the 0 for 3 lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00097, or about 1 in 1030. He was better than 1 in 1000 for five dates.

The following table show the kinds of slumps Chipper would need to suffer to lower his BA to .400:

Chipper Jones did not play on Friday due to a freak gardening accident:

Jones, hitting .414 with 15 homers and 41 RBIs, fouled off a pitch while taking his last round of BP and the ball ricocheted off the crossbar at the top of the batting cage, striking him just under his left eye. The five-time All-Star suffered a contusion and was taken for a CT scan, which was negative. He returned to the clubhouse in the ninth inning.

"I didn't know it was going to take three hours to get an X-ray," Jones said. "They put me through all the tests, and I'm just experiencing a little blurred vision in close. Other than that, I'm fine.

"The first thing that flashed into my mind was when I was 9 or 10 years old, when I saw a kid hit a foul ball off his eye and he lost his eye. But it got me just below the eye. I've been sucker-punched a few times there, so I can take it. I hope that I don't have a big old fat shiner tomorrow."

Nice macho posturing by Chipper there. In twenty years he'll be telling reporters how he hit .400 with one eye and a hamstring held together by duct tape. :-)

He's still batting .414 and the day off raised the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00113, or about 1 in 885.

Chipper Jones ended Thursday's extra-inning game 1 for 5 with a walk. He's now batting .414 and lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00104, or about 1 in 960.

Chipper Jones started Wednesday night and went one for three with a walk. He's now batting .419 and raised the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00174, or about 1 in 575.

Nate Silver wrote a piece for Baseball Prospectus (subscription may be required) in which he uses Bayes Theorem to estimate Chipper's real batting average is now much closer to .350 than to .310. I'm not sure I buy it, but I want to sleep on it before commenting. Given that it might be true, I have a question that I'd like people to take a crack at in the comments. What would cause a player in his mid 30s to have such a tremendous jump in performance?

Tom Verducci pens an excellent article on why it's tougher to hit .400 today. He makes a great point about the number of different pitchers a batter faces:

Brett was hitting .287 as deep into the 1980 season as May 30, then erupted on a 31-game tear in which he hit a ridiculous .496, raising his average to .390. The chase was on. Brett was hitting .400 as late as Sept. 19. But his quest died over the next seven games. Brett went 4-for-27 that week and wound up at .390. Turn just four of those outs that week into hits and he would have hit .400.

But when you look at those seven games that killed the quest, you understand how much things have changed from Brett to Jones. In those seven games Brett never faced a relief pitcher. Think about that for a minute. A full week of games seeing only one pitcher per game.

Opposing starting pitchers threw every inning but two (63 of 65) against Brett's Royals in that seven-game stretch. Those starters were Matt Keough, Mike Norris, Floyd Bannister, Jim Beattie, Rick Honeycutt, Geoff Zahn and Jerry Koosman. Brett had to be concerned with only one pitcher per night. No closers and no lefthanded specialists. Jones typically will face three or four different pitchers a night, facing constant adjustments in velocity, style, release points and such. Expansion and interleague play have added to the variety.

He also offers a chart showing the number of pitchers faced by Williams in 1941, Brett in 1980, Larry Walker in 1999, and Chipper Jones last year.

On the other hand, seeing more pitchers may mean seeing more pitchers who aren't as good. That may even things out a bit.

Chipper Jones pinch hit Tuesday night and walked. The no at bat game raised his probability of hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. When Chipper misses games, or doesn't receive an at bat, his projected number of at bats drops. Fewer at bats gives him a better chance or reaching .400. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00138, or about 1 in 725.

Chipper Jones did not play today due to an injury that may sideline him for a couple of games. That actually raised his probability of hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. When Chipper misses games, his projected number of at bats drops. Fewer at bats gives him a better chance or reaching .400. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00127, or about 1 in 800.

You'll also notice I've added three other graphs at the request of some readers. George Brett 1980, Rod Carew 1977 and Ted Williams 1941 join Chipper. All three are interesting, and you'll find my commentary at the link.

Update: Devon Young sends this Sports Illustrated slide show of players to .400 late into the season since 1980.

The Braves start Chipper Jones on the bench today.

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.000914 a tick down after a 1 for 3 on Saturday night. He's now batting .420 on the season. That probability gives him about a 1 in 1100 chance of hitting .400. In 17 dates he's gone from about a 1 in 10000 to close to a 1 in 1000 chance. If he gets to 1 in 100 that quickly, we could be looking at serious run at .400.

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.001059, the highest it's been this season. His two for three Friday raised his average to .421. He'll need an 0 for 12 to fall below .400.

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.000959, the highest it's been this season. His four for five yesterday raised his average to .418. I keep waiting for the slump, and the slump doesn't happen.

Devon Young sends the following information showing Chipper tends to hit better in the second half of the season:

1995: .248/.282 (+34)
1996: .300/.321 (+21)

1997: .307/.281 (-26)
1998: .309/.318 (+9)
1999: .313./.328 (+15)
2000: .320/.301 (-19)
2001: .308/.356 (+48)
2002: .307/.353 (+46)

2003: .289/.325 (+36)
2004: .214/.278 (+64)
2005: .282/.307 (+25)
2006: .315/.341 (+26)
2007: .329/.345 (+16)

Chipper's going to be fun to watch. Right now, he needs an 0 for 10 to fall below .400, so he should remain there at least two more games.

Update: Congratulations also to Chipper on his 400th career home run!

Correction: Someone emailed to ask how I did the calculation. In stepping through it I discovered a rounding bug that caused a underestimation of the hits needed for a .400 average sometimes. Instead of usings round, I'm now usings roundup for the hits calculation. That lowers his current probability of hitting .400 to 0.000655915. I've updated the graph.

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00036, the second highest it's been this season.

Big League Stew wonders why the record for home runs by a second baseman is 42 and not 43:

If you've been reading the AP reports during Utley's current run to 21 HR, you'll see that it notes he has to hit 42 homers to tie both Rogers Hornsby (1922) and Davey Johnson (1973).

But as many have pointed out -- and at least one newspaper corrected -- Johnson actually hit 43 round trippers in '73, which would make him the sole single-season HR champ for 2B.

Why the mixup? Well, if you look at Johnson's home run log for '73, you'll see that he did hit 43 homers for the Braves that season. However, visiting the box score for the June 17 game against the Cubs shows that Johnson entered the game in the seventh inning as a pinch hitter for Sonny Jackson and responded with a three-run shot that gave Atlanta the lead.

But even though Johnson stayed in the game as a second baseman, the HR apparently counts at a pinch-hit, which is reflected in both the AP and the records at Baseball Almanac. (I'd try to doublecheck that at MLB.com, but the site keeps crashing my browser ... help?)

Although we tend to think of records as something concrete, they really aren't. If you define the record as "Home Runs as a Second Baseman" then 42 is correct. Davey Johnson was a pinch hitter, not a second baseman when he hit the extra home run. There's no reason to assume he would stay in the game. (By the way, it's possible to bat without a position. If you pinch run or pinch hit, then come up again in the same inning, you are listed as having no position in the second plate appearance.)

However, if you define the record as "Home Runs by a Second Baseman" then I think the record is 43. What I often do when I don't have play by play information is figure out the primary position for a fielder in a season, usually by most games played at a position that year. So if someone plays 100 games at second and 20 games at third in a particular year, I list him as a second baseman and count all his stats. Neither is more correct that the other. You do the best you can with the data that's available.

I think we can be pretty sure, however, that if Utley hits 44 homers, he'll have some second base record.

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up.

Cameron Martin notes two omissions from an MLB commerical promoting Griffey's pursuit of 600 home runs:

During Sunday's Red Sox/Orioles game, which I watched on MLB.TV, the league ran a promotional commercial for Ken Griffey's approach to 600 home runs. Backed by maudlin piano music, a Costas-like narrator says the following script, to the accompaniment of pictures and video:

"Willie Mays, September 22, 1969...600.
Babe Ruth, August 21, 1931...600.
Hank Aaron, April 27, 1971...600."

Then the screen flips to Griffey, who sits at 599, and he says, "Ken Griffey Jr.... keep watching."

Only five men in Major League Baseball history have hit 600 home runs - the aforementioned three, plus Barry Bonds (762) and Sammy Sosa (609). So, why weren't the dates of their 600th home runs included in MLB's tribute to Griffey's pursuit? I guess it's possible that mentioning all five players would take too long for a quick, effective commercial. And I guess it's possible that Barry Bonds will make the Hall of Fame someday. What's more likely, however, is that Major League Baseball is whitewashing history.

This reminds me of Animal Farm.

Henry Aaron still considers himself the home run king. People used to make arguments that Babe Ruth was still the home run king, because he hit his 714 long balls in a lot less at bats than Henry did. Some people just don't like to let go of old records. Twenty years after Aaron broke Ruth's record, no one tried to make that argument anymore. Twenty years from now, no one will think Aaron is the home run king, either.

Manny Ramirez hit home run 498 in the first inning tonight. Ramirez is more than capable of hitting three in a game, although he only did twice in his career. The dates were 9/15/1998 and 8/25/1999.

Shawn Chacon can set a major league record if he gets a no decision in his next start. I hope the Houston fans travel up to Arlington to cheer, "ND! ND!" when Shawn faces the Rangers on Friday.

Manny Ramirez came into tonight's game against the Tigers without a home run in fourteen games. That left him stuck at 496. He finally broke that streak in the seventh inning tonight, going back-to-back with David Ortiz for 497. The Red Sox lead 5-0 behind a one-hitter by Tim Wakefield. Unlike Matsuzaka Monday night, Tim hasn't walked a batter.

Carlos Quentin may shatter the record for bases loaded walks.

Update: This should be HBPs, not walks.

BBTF notes a record set by Frank Thomas yesterday, most plate appearances without a sacrifice hit.

Intentional walks and sacrifice hits pretty much have the same dividing line when it comes to who should bunt and who shouldn't be walked. Changing Walk/Don't Walk lights to Ruth/Mendoza would work really well. Frank is definitely at the Walk/Don't Bunt end of the spectrum.

Ken Rosenthal looks at the chances of Jeter and A-Rod breaking Pete Rose's hit record. If Alex catches up a bit to Jeter in hits, it could make for a very interesting season 11 or 12 years from now. Both would be way beyond their primes, but driven to break they record they keep playing. They might be so close that any day might put one in front of the other. The probability is it won't happen, but it would be a huge story for MLB.

Joe Christensen writes that the Twins are holding out for the deal they want in order to trade Santana. Fred Claire did the same:

I tried finding a precedent to this madness, and former Dodgers GM Fred Claire has a similar memory. He was a first-year GM heading into the 1987 winter meetings, and he made it known that pitcher Bob Welch was available. Soon, the whole industry was waiting for that development.

"In some sense, we were controlling the tempo of the winter meetings," Claire said in a telephone interview this week. "In fact, [then Mets GM] Joe McIlvaine said, 'Nothing can happen because Fred's holding up the winter meetings.' "

Claire held his ground. Finally, he swung a three-team deal with the A's and Mets that brought the Dodgers shortstop Alfredo Griffin and relievers Jay Howell and Jesse Orosco. Welch went to Oakland, but the three new Dodgers helped them defeat the A's in the 1988 World Series.

My guess is that the Red Sox and Yankees would be happy to have the Twins pull out of the deals entirely, so that neither side gets the pitcher. Then the GMs can go ahead and develop their own talent.

Update: It looks like the Red Sox added Ellsbury to the deal, but told the Twins they can't have both Jacoby and Lester.

FishStripes presents a look bad at an historical weekend for the Marlins.

Sammy Sosa broke the record for most home runs before his first grand slam, although I don't know if he still holds it.

Correction: Fixed the link.

The odds of Alex Rodriguez passing Maris are getting longer every day. It looks like he'll only get about sixty two more plate appearances, and with his HR/PA at .08 for the season, the probability of ten more home runs is now just .025, or about 1 in 40. Not low enough to quite count him out, but nothing I'd want to wager on at this point.

Alex Rodriguez did not hit a home run last night. Given that he has about 67 plate appearances left, the odds of him hitting ten home runs and breaking Maris' AL single season home run record is .04, or about 1 in 25.

No home runs for Alex Rodriguez last night, knocking the long shot odds down a bit again. If he plays all seventeen remaining games, Alex should get about 76 more plate appearances. With his home run rate this season .0816 HR/PA, the probability of his hitting at least ten more home runs is 0.08944, or about 1 in 11.

Todd Helton picked up his thirty fifth double of the season today, the tenth straight season he's reached that plateau. According to the broadcast, he's the first player to accomplish that feat. All-time record holder Tris Speaker misses twelve straight years of thirty five when the 1918 season was cut short due to WWI. Speaker had 33 when the season ended. He hit over 40 the previous two seasons, then at least 35 each of the next nine years.

More importantly, the Rockies win 4-2, taking two out of three from San Diego and gaining a game in the NL Wild Card race over the series.

The Texas Rangers ended up scoring nine runs in game two of their double header with the Orioles to win the night cap 9-7. At one point it looked like they might score 36 runs on the day and come away with a split. But the Rangers came through, scoring three times in the eighth to shatter the modern record for runs in a double header with 39. Here's a composite offensive listing for the two games. Brad Wilkerson was the only one of the thirteen players used not to get a hit, and even he managed to drive in a run with a sacrifice fly.

Evan Grant details the interesting stats from the game at the end of this article, and notes:

It was quite a turnaround for Washington, who only hours earlier had lamented the difficulty he's having in putting together a lineup on a nightly basis. With the Rangers in full evaluation mode, Washington is playing three or four rookies per night and scrambling to find run producers.

The Rangers' offense has been, at best, sporadic. And since the trade of Mark Teixeira on July 31 combined with a reduced role for Sammy Sosa, it's become one of the least effective in the AL. The Rangers entered the doubleheader ranked 11th in the AL in August runs scored (72) and 12th in batting average (.250). They had managed to score just 28 runs - total - in their previous nine games.

After yesterday, they rank 8th in the majors in runs per game for August with a mark of 5.55.

The Rangers plate a single run in the fifth inning, tying the record for most runs scored in a double header. The game is in the bottom of the sixth now, Texas leading 6-5, so they have three chances set a new record.

Update: Jay Payton singles home two in the bottom of the seventh to put the Orioles on top 7-6. He got the hit with two outs and the bases loaded. The Rangers will need to break the double header record to win this game.

Update: The Rangers come through Metcalf singles in Nelson Cruz to tie the game and set the AL and modern record for runs scored in a double header, 37.

The Rangers score three in the top of the second. The AL record and the modern record for runs in a double header is 36 by the Tigers on August 14, 1937. In game Boston scored 29 runs and in the double header record by Detroit, the opponent was the St. Louis Browns, the franchise that eventually moved to Baltimore to become the Orioles.

Update: The Rangers score two more in the fourth, and are now one shy of the record for a double header.

YanksFan notes that we should keep our eyes on the number of hits collected by both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter:

Getting back to A-Rod, it's worth noting that Alex has a very outside shot at the Rose record (4,256, in case you've forgotten that touchstone), and a somewhat better (but still slim) hope at the 4,000 hit mark, held only by Rose and Cobb. At age 31, Alex has over 2,200 hits. He averages about 175 a season. Do the math. Another player with a shot at 4,000: Derek Jeter, who at 33 has more than 2,300 hits. Certainly, both men are capable, even likely, to crack the all-time top 10 (Eddie Collins's 3,310 is the target for that goal). Who knows--sometimes even nice guys finish first.

For a long time, Robin Yount had more hits than Pete Rose at the same age, not falling behind until age 37. Again, as in home runs, the big finish seems to be what takes you to a record.

Barry Bonds hit his 760th career home run tonight. I wonder if he'll pass Speaker's record of 792 doubles. Everyone's spent years impressed with over 700 home runs, but no one's some close to Speaker's 792 doubles.

Barry Bonds starts tonight's game and homers in the first off Tim Redding. I wonder with the pressure off, if Barry goes on a tear. And of course, everyone wants to catch one of the homers, since you never know which one is going to be the final new record.

San Quinn celebrates Barry Bonds' home run record with a music video.

Insan at ArmchairGM accuses Mike Bacsik of grooving a pitch to Bonds.

With time running out for Bacsik, in the 5 th inning, Bacsik made the most of the opportunity. On another 3-2 count allowing Bonds to chase the ball, Bascik threw an 84 mph pitch down the center of the plate for Bonds to smash it into the right field stands. Mission accomplished! An 84 mph pitch on a full count is a very weak pitch that is easy to hit, especially for guys like Bonds. What makes it worse is that during his post-game press conference, Bacsik says that he was trying to throw a fastball down and away for a strike. Really Bacsik? Are you really that bad that you ended up throwing an 84 mph pitch right down the strike zone? He stated "I wanted to go after him; I was trying to get him out. I threw a pitch that he really likes to hit and he did it." Well if Bonds really likes to hit those pitches, and you know that for a fact, then why are you trying to strike him out with that pitch? Wouldn't logic dictate that you throw a pitch he doesn't like?

First of all, 84 MPH is a Mike Bacsik fastball. BIS charted 520 Mike Bacsik fastballs, and the average speed is 84.4 MPH with a standard deviation of 1.75 MPH. He was trying to get the ball down and failed. Just like Al Downing:

Downing is offended by people who say, "You must have grooved the pitch."

"They're the people who don't know much about the sport," he said. "I say that's an insult to Hank Aaron. ... It's like saying somebody let Wilt Chamberlain score 100 points on him. He did it because he could; they didn't let him."

But Downing naturally thinks he have could executed better. "When you face great hitters, you wish you had a lot of pitches back," he said. "I didn't get it down as much as I would have liked to. I wanted him to hit a ground ball. Not all home runs are hit off of bad pitches, and not all home runs are mistakes."

I get the feeling Insan is looking for an excuse to discount home run 756.

Bob Carpenter guests blogs at 3 Girls With Heart on how he called Barry's record breaking home run.

As far as the game and the home run, here was my call: "Three-two pitch to Bonds ... there it goes! This ball is history!" and then I shut up and let our pictures tell the story. It's the beauty of TV; you can make a quick call and then let the pictures take over. Don Sutton and I sat quietly as we watched the stadium erupt in noise, fireworks and streamers, quite a sight. The video on the scoreboard from Hank Aaron was powerful, and I followed up with the comment that, for many baseball fans, Aaron would always be the home run king.

I remember Chris Berman being quiet when Ripken set the consecutive game record, something that must have been difficult for Boomer. But sometimes, you just need to let the moment speak for itself.

Henry Schulman covered the event for the San Francisco Chronicle. There's lots here, including the tribute from Aaron, a call from the commissioner, the person who retrieved the ball (wearing a Mets jersey, no less) and this bit of trivia:

Bonds also got a visit from Bacsik, who congratulated the new home run king and got an autographed bat in return.

Bacsik's father, also named Mike Bacsik, pitched for Texas and Minnesota from 1975-80. On Aug. 23, 1976, in a Rangers-Brewers game, the elder Bacsik faced Aaron two months after The Hammer hit his final career home run. Aaron singled off him in two at-bats. Thus, the Bacsiks became the only father and son each to face different hitters with 755 home runs.

"If my dad was gracious enough to give up a home run," Bacsik said, "we both would have given up 756."

After the 1989 season, Barry Bonds and the Pirates went to arbitration. Bonds lost the case (and this is from memory) in part because the Pirates claimed Barry didn't drive in enough runs. Barry was a leadoff man at the time. So Barry asked to be moved lower in the order so he could drive in runs.

Barry's fans stuck by him. At 25, they said, he was just entering his prime years. His critics countered by saying he was a clone of his father--a player whose performance never caught up to his potential. In their postseason arbitration meeting, the Pirates argued that Barry had taken a step backward instead of developing his talents. The arbitor agreed, and Barry lost his case. Pittsburgh also let it be known that Barry could be had for the right price. There were no offers.

The Pittsburgh faithful who cried "Wait 'til next year" were screaming "I told you so" in 1990. Everyone in the lineup was healthy again, and a patchwork pitching staff led by Drabek carried the Pirates to the N.L. East flag.

The big story was Barry, who batted in the five-hole behind Bonilla. Spurred on by his arbitration loss, he had a historic year at the plate, becoming the first player ever to hit 30 homers, steal 50 bases, knock in and score 100 runs, and bat .300 in the same season. He raised his average a whopping 150 points with runners in scoring position, led the league with a .565 slugging average, and never went more than two games without getting on base.

If the Pirates had recognized the young man's talents and kept him in the leadoff spot, he might have concentrated on getting on base and stealing rather than hitting home runs. Eventually, his talent would win out and he'd be moved lower in the order, but Barry really seems to respond to challenges and slights. His arbitration loss accelerated his rise, going from good leadoff hitter to slugging MVP in one year. Had that not happened, Barry might have been more interested in challenging Rickey Henderson's records than Henry Aaron's. The home run race of 1998, and the attention it diverted from Barry's great year caused him to go after the home run records with a vengence.

27 July 2007: San Francisco Giants Barry Bonds watches the flight of his 754th home run against Florida Marlins pitcher Rick Vanden Hurk during the first inning at AT&T Park in San Francisco, California.

Photo: Rhona Wise/Icon SMI

He's certainly an individual driven by a desire to prove he's the best. Whether it was intense workouts, drugs, or a combination of both, Bonds found a way to keep going when others (McGwire, Sosa, Griffey) fell off the record pace. Even two bad knees and a bad elbow could not stop him. Hate Barry or love him over how he reached this goal, but it's tough to deny his burning determination. In most people, that's an admirable quality.

Barry Bonds just got all of a ball and drove it into the stands in right center to set the new record for home runs at 756. He ran the count to 3-2, fouled off a pitch, then got one high and on the inside part of the plate and just drilled it in typical Bonds fashion. There's fireworks, family delivering hugs, and now a ceremony. Aaron just delivered congratulations via video, hoping this record will inspire others to chase their dreams.

Congratulations to Barry Bonds on reaching his goal of becoming the all-time home run leader.

Update: Bonds speaks to the crowd, thanking the fans, his teammates, his family, the Washington Nationals for their understanding, and lastly he thanked his dad. He's had a good game, three for three with a double and single in addition to the home run.

I have to say Aaron's recording was very classy, full of grace and dignity.

On top of it all, in a big home run game (five so far) the shot gives the Giants the lead 5-4. Mike Bacsik goes down in history as the one who delivers the ball.

Barry Bonds comes out of a 1-1 tie after going 0 for 3 with a walk. In the seventh, he struck out after getting ahead of Lannan 3-1. Lannan put a fast ball right over the plate. Bonds saw it and swung with all his might, spinning himself around as he missed the ball. He's slowing down, as that was a pitch he would have crushed in 2004. Lannan got the last pitch for a strike as well. John handled Barry well, getting a pop up, GDP and strike out, and walking Barry just once.

The Mets bullpen holds the lead and the offense adds a few runs just in case as Glavine wins his 300th game by a score of 8-3 over the Cubs. Note that over the course of Tom Glavine's career, only seventeen pitchers managed 300 decisions. Congratulations to Tom on a great milestone!

Note that Tom's wins were pretty consistent over his career. It took him about eight seasons to get to 100, seven to get to 200, and eight to get to 300. He adjust to a higher level of offense in the mid 1990s, and a new and (at first) weaker team when he transfered to the Mets.

So who is next? The Big Unit's career might be over. Mike Mussina, at 246 wins, probably needs four more good seasons to reach the goal. With his strikeouts way down, he'll need to reinvent himself as a junk baller, which isn't out of the question. My money might be on C.C. Sabathia, however. At seasonal age 26, he already has 95 wins. Glavine had 73 through age 26.

Tom Glavine finished five innings, and the Mets are working on building a 4-0 lead in the top of the sixth. Glavine's only thrown 75 pitches, so a couple of more innings should get him to the elite of the Mets pen to finish the game. He's looking good right now for his 300th win.

Soriano left the game early with an injury.

Update: Kerry Wood comes into the game in the seventh inning. Is it my imagination, or does Wood look a lot thinner?

Update: I just looked at a 2005 photo, and he's not noticeably thinner.

Update: Glavine comes out after a one-out double by Pagan. He leaves with a 5-1 lead, having given up six hits in 6 1/3 innings, walking one. The bullpen makes it 5-3 with the Cubs still batting in the inning. Glavine did not allow a home run tonight, one of the strong points of his career and a big reason he's won 300 games.

Barry Bonds tied Hank Aaron's all-time home run record Saturday night, hitting number 755 against San Diego.

In the second-inning, Padres starting pitcher Clay Hensley gave up the opposite field HR that landed in the left-field stands. His next home run will give him the record. The 33 year old man that recovered the ball, and his cousin both from La Jolla, California, were escorted by security personnel out of Petco Park for their own safety.

It was quite a day as Alex Rodriguez became the youngest man to 500 home runs on the same day. The crowd responed well to Barry's blast, which was not without irony:

Bonds hit the 755th homer of his career in the second inning off Padres right-hander Clay Hensley, then circled the bases to applause diluted only slightly by the boos that have followed him on the road ever since the spring 2006 publication of the book "Game of Shadows," which accuses Bonds of using performance-enhancing drugs.

A fair number of Giants fans had infiltrated the San Diego crowd, and the rest of the cheering audience had either a deep appreciation for major-league history or a firm grasp of minor-league trivia. The record-tying home run was served up by a man who had tested positive for steroids when he played in Mobile, Ala. Hensley was suspended for 15 games in 2005.

For those of you (like me) who missed it:

It wasn't a typical Bonds blast. He went the other way, and I didn't think it was gone off the bat. But he's still so strong he can muscle a ball out the other way. Congratulations to Barry Bonds! If nothing else, he's persevered through pain and controversy to achieve this goal. And now we wait for 756.

Of course, Alex Rodriguez hits his 500th home run while I'm driving through Pennsylvannia. He's 3 for 4 today as the Yankees go for the two-point conversion twice and lead the Royals 16-8. Tiki Barber came in to relieve Phil Hughes after he allowed six runs in 4 2/3 innings. He could not get the last out to leave with a lead, but the Yankees took a 6-6 tie and turned it into a 16-8 lead in the top of the ninth.

Alex becomes the youngest player to even hit 500 home runs by a good ten months. If he plays through age 40, he'll need to average 33.3 homers a year to reach 800. Congratulations to Alex on a fantastic start of a career!

Update: Yankees win 16-8.

Barry Bonds comes out of the game after an intentional walk in the seventh, once again not hitting a home run. Vin Scully is off the hook.

Bill Hall doubles in the tying run in the bottom of the eighth to take the decision out of Glavine's hands. Heilman, Feliciano and Mota combine to allow a single, a hit batter and the double to end the bid for 300.

The Mets score two for Glavine in the top of the sixth as Wright and Alou drive in runs. Glavine walks two in the bottom of the inning and winds up with men on first and third with two out when Shawn Green makes a nice diving catch in foul territory to end the inning. The Mets lead 2-1 in the top of the seventh.

Update: New York loads the bases with one out but fail to score. Glavine is still in as the game goes to the bottom of the seventh. He's walked five but only allowed one hit.

Update: Glavine gives up a single to lead off the seventh, and Randolph takes him out of the game. The fate of his 300th win is now in the hands of the bullpen.

Update: I remembered Nolan Ryan picked up his 300th win in Milwaukee, but I didn't realize this was the anniversary until it was mentioned on the broadcast.

Jeff Suppan is making Tom Glavine work for his 300th win tonight. Suppan's allowed just one hit and two walks through four innings as the Brewers bat in the bottom of the fourth with the game scoreless. Glavine as allowed one hit and two walks also, through three.

Update: Fielder drives in a run with a ground out in the bottom of the third to put the Brewers up 1-0 in the bottom of the fourth.

Bonds, A-Rod and Glavine can all achieve milestones on the same day.

Ichiro Suzuki knocked out hits 1500 and 1501 yesterday, making him the third fastest player to reach 1500. He's accomplished the feat in less than seven seasons, making me wonder where he'd be if he spent his entire career in the major leagues. He hit the majors at seasonal age 27, meaning he could have come up at 20 and played seven years prior. It's not unreasonable to think he could have picked up 1200 hits in that time. He came up at age 18 in Japan and collected 1278 hits in shorter seasons. It's quite possible if he were playing in the United States, he'd be sitting on 3000 hits by the end of this season.

That means at age 33, he might be ahead of Cobb, who collected 2856 hits through that seasonal age. Given Ichrio's ability and drive, there's a chance he could have passed Rose's hit mark eventually. While that's not going to happen, it's going to be fun watching to see if he can reach 3000 hits. It was impressive for Wade Boggs to reach that level with the late start he had in his career. Ichiro would be even more amazing.

Barry Bonds looks like he gets all of a 3-2 pitch in the bottom of the fourth, but the bat breaks in half and the ball comes down in the right fielder's glove. It looked like a home run swing, but the bat kept him from tying the record in that at plate appearance.

Miguel Cabrera commits a two out error, and Willis follows that with a walk to bring up Barry Bonds in the seventh. Barry pops up the first pitch directly over the plate for the third out of the inning. The Marlins continue to lead 3-2.

Bonds walks on five pitches. The pitch on 3-0 was a bit low, but the umpire gave Dontrelle the strike.

Barry Bonds homered in the first inning tonight. That puts his career home run total at 754, one behind Henry Aaron. Rick Vanden Hurk has now allowed seven home runs in 41 innings. The Giants lead the Marlins 2-1.

Photo: William A. Guerro/Icon SMI

26 July 2007: Phillies 2b Chase Utley #26 reacts after being hit on the hand by a pitch from Nations starting pitcher John Lannan in the game between the Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.

Chase Utely's broken hand sends him to the disabled list:

Utley, generally considered the best second baseman in the game and a National League MVP candidate, indicated that he will miss at least 3 weeks with a fractured right ring finger.

He will land on the 15-day disabled list today. He will visit hand specialist Dr. Randall W. Culp at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital today to see if surgery is needed.

Both Utley and Magglio Ordonez chased the doubles record this season. Magglio fell off the pace recently, but Utley was still close. Missing at least three weeks is going kill that possibility. Ordonez could get hot again, but his career doubles numbers indicate that's not likely. While we marvel in the home run records, but Webb's single season mark and Speaker's career total have proven much more difficult to conquer.

Bud Selig will try be in attendance if and when Barry Bonds ties and breaks Hank Aaron's career home run record.

"Out of respect for the tradition of this game, the magnitude of the record, and the fact that all citizens in this country are innocent until proven guilty, I will attend Barry Bonds' next games to observe his potential tying and breaking of the home run record, subject to my commitments to the Hall of Fame this weekend. I will make an additional statement when the record is tied," Selig said.

It's the right decision.

Barry Bonds plays his next three games in Milwaukee. Some how, I think he'd enjoy either tying or breaking Aaron's record in Selig's back yard and where Hank knew so much success during his career. He's in the lineup batting fourth tonight.

Update: This is the anniversary of Aaron's final home run.

A commenter to this post writes:

Is it wrong to wish injury or failure on Bonds at this point, or is the integrity of Baseball's record books so trashed that it really doesn't matter?

Is Baseball Musings really happy about this?

When Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's single season home run record, people complained. He wasn't Mickey Mantle. The season was too long. Expansion made home runs easier. When Henry Aaron broke Babe Ruth's career home run record, people complained. He wasn't as good a player as Ruth. He was black.

People like to complain when a record gets broken. They find all sorts of reasons why the new record holder isn't as good as the old record holder. But now Maris is recognized for his achievement as he never was in his lifetime. Aaron is universally adored as a great player and a fine human being.

Bonds pursuit of the record is a story. It's interesting if he breaks the record. It's more interesting if he breaks down short of the record. I'm fine with either one. What I know is that in 30 years, his chase will likely be remembered fondly, just as Maris and Aaron are today.

Ohman! That rest really helped Barry. He just hit his second home run of the day, a three run shot to the opposite field to bring the Giants within one of the Cubs. He's three for three today with a single and six RBI. The Cubs lead 9-8 at the stretch.

One thing I noticed is that as Bonds returned to the dugout, he had to go down a narrow staircase. You could see him supporting himself with both arms as he descended. The next person down didn't even hold the rail. He's in some pain.

With two home runs to go to tie the record, it can happen anytime. It's not beyond Barry to hit three in a game. Set your DVRs!

With the Cubs up 4-0, Lilly pitches to Bonds and Barry delivers the ball into the street behind the rightfield bleachers. He hit the first pitch, one up over the inside part of the plate. It's his third home run against Ted. Looks like the rest is what he needed.

Maggilo Ordonez picked up his 36th double tonight. He drove in two with the hit against Johan Santana to give the Tigers a 2-0 lead over the Twins. Magglio still needs another 31 doubles just to tie the record. He's fallen off the record pace, as he now projects to 63 doubles on the season. They're in the top of the fifth in Minnesota.

The Feed doesn't like the idea that Tony La Russa took ownership of the game ball in the Phillies 10,000th loss. Tony will auction the item for charity.

On the other hand, though, the ball should be the property of those fans who keep supporting the Phillies through all the down times. Perhaps it should go to the season ticket holder who has had his or her tickets for the longest time. They could have it as a memento of the years spent rooting for a team that's had their share of troubles and it would be a testament to the best kind of friend a team or person could ever ask for. Or they could blow it up the way the Cubs fans did with the Bartman ball as a way to shake the mojo of 125 years. Maybe it should go to Cooperstown to be appreciated by all baseball fans as a duel reminder of the longevity of both baseball and fandom in Philadelphia. I'm pretty sure it shouldn't belong to Tony La Russa though.

I'd vote to put the ball in the Hall of Fame. That's the sort of history I want to see in Cooperstown.

The St. Louis Cardinals used six home runs tonight to defeat the Phillies 10-2. That ties the most home runs hit by a team in a game this season. The Athletics did it on May 10th, the Rangers on May 20th, and the Twins on July 6th. The Cardinals are the first National League team to hit that many in a game in the 2007 season.

The loss, of course, pins 10,000 on the Phillies. This morning when I grabbed a shirt out of my draw, I happened to take my Harvard University Band tee, below. (Click for a larger image.)

Ten Thousand Men of Harvard is the most important fight song of the school. The first verse is Latin nonsense, but the opening line translates as "Don't let the bastards get you down." An appropriate sentiment for the Phillies today.

The Baseball Crank ranks the twenty most impressive records of all time. It's a very good list, although I would have ranked the doubles record higher.

I've blogged about the assault on the doubles, triples and home run records, but I didn't realize Jimmy Rollins was on a pace to break the dubious at bats record. That usually goes to a leadoff hitter who seldom walks on a great offensive team. Check.

TangoTiger points out that Bonds is just one home run shy of catching Aaron if you include the post season:

Babe Ruth has 729 HR, including his 15 post-season HR. They count, right? I mean, would you rather count them as ZERO?

Hank Aaron goes from 755 to the real 761.

Bonds? Goodbye to 751. He has 9 post-season HR. Say hello to Bonds at 760 MLB homeruns. Bonds needs ONE HR to tie the MLB record, and two to break it.

At the end of The Babe Ruth Story I remember a bit of dialog where they talk about Ruth's home run total including his post season home runs. It was only after Maris broke Ruth's single season record that people started revering 714.

When I worked at ESPN, at some point they asked STATS to start providing batter vs. pitcher statistics that included the post season. The reasoning was that those were very meaningful at bats. Tango makes a very good point in his post, and we should list both records.

Barry Bonds goes deep in the first inning, giving the Giants a 2-0 lead. He fell behind 0-2 as Harang fooled him with a pitch just off the plate for strike two. He brought the next fastball in over the plate a bit, and that was enough for Barry to put it in the rightfield seats for career HR 751.

Brandon Watson tied a 95 year old record by hitting in 42 straight games in AAA.

Curtis Granderson helped the Tigers to two more runs in the bottom of the sixth. His triple drove in a run, then he scored on a sacrifice fly. The three-bagger was Granderson's thirteenth of the season. Coming in game sixty three, he's on a pace for thirty three in 2007. The AL record is twenty six (Joe Jackson in 1912 and Tiger Sam Crawford in 1914) so he's halfway there. He's also on a good enough pace to be threatening the ML record of 36 set by Owen Wilson in 1912.

CBSSportsline reports on Baseball Prospectus' efforts to predict when Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's home run record.

Bonds' recent 14-game homerless drought increased his chances of failing to set the record this season from 5.5 percent to 8.9 percent. But by hitting No. 746 on Sunday against Colorado, Bonds now has just a 7.4 percent chance of falling short, according to Davenport's calculations.

Heading into Tuesday night's against the New York Mets, the most likely date for the record breaker is now on June 29 in a home game against Arizona, with a 3.6 percent chance. Not that Davenport is suggesting anyone rush out to buy a ticket to that game expecting a record-breaker.

Barry Bonds hit eleven home runs in 34 Giants games. He needs eleven more, which should take another 34 games. It's a simple, seat of the pants estimate, but puts Barry in two interesting locations for potentially breaking the record. Game 32 starts a three-game road trip to Boston. Game 34 is on Sunday, June 17. Fenway, of course is where Babe Ruth started playing. Games 35, 36 and 37, however, are in Milwaukee, the city in which Henry Aaron hit number 755 on 7/20/1976. It would also make it very easy for Bud to attend the game. If it doesn't happen in either of those series, Bonds returns to San Francisco to face the Yankees and another Ruth connection.

Although it would be somewhat cool if Bonds hit #756 off Schilling, if the Red Sox stay on rotation, Schilling would pitch the day before the SF series starts.

A number of people are asking for the April record for RBI. Since 1957, the record is 35 for Juan Gonzalez in 1998. However, that year there were games in March, so the record for most through the end of April is 36 by both McGwire and Gonzalez. I assume that's the record because before the 1990s the season started later, making it tougher to collect a lot of home runs or RBI in the month. With 34, A-Rod has plenty of time to set the record for the month and through the end of the month.

Marc Normandin was conducting a BP chat today and forwarded me this question:

Based on the enormous sample size of like 14 games do you think A-Rod will break Bonds' single season home run record?

Here's my answer:

For his career, Alex Rodriguez hits home runs at a rate of 6.9 per 100 at bats. If he gets 600 AB this season, he'll get another 543 at bats. So if he reverts to his career norm for the rest of the season, he'd hit another 38 home runs, giving him 48 for the year. However, the chance of someone who hits home runs at a rate of .069 hitting at least 10 HR in 57 at bats is .005, which is significant at the .05 level. So there's some evidence that A-Rod is better than his career numbers this season. If you average the two rates, you get .122, which works out to 73 home runs. My feeling is that he's better than .069 right now. How much better is the question. My gut is he's more likely to hit 50 than 70.

Another way to do it would be to find the lowest rate that's not significant at the .05 level. That rate is .0985. If he were to hit at that rate the rest of the year and come to the plate for 600 AB, he'd hit 63 home runs, breaking the AL record.

On the side bar of this story about the importance of baseball milestones, the ESPN writers pick the date they think Barry Bonds will pass Hank Aaron. I gave Pedro Gomez a date of 5/1/2008 (he said not in '07) and ignored Caple's pick of "Won't do it." It looks to me like the consensus date is 8/30/2007. Of the people who predict a record this season, the consensus date is 8/1/2007. Remember to set your DVRs!

Dayn Perry looks at some of the milestones up for grabs in 2007. We may end up with four players reaching 500 HR, one at 600 and one topping the all-time record!

John Beamer fleshes out the probability of Barry Bonds passing Hank Aaron this season. It looks like John is giving Barry a 40% chance in 2007. Personally, I think it comes down to Barry's health. If he avoid further elbow or knew damage, he'll probably hit 25 homers this season. But if either of those joints go, he may very well never play again. My guess is he breaks the record this year or he never breaks it.

Roch Kubatko notes that Henry Aaron won't attend the game if and when Bonds passes Hank's home run record:

"First, I don't like to fly," Aaron told the Oakland Tribune this week. "And if I come, there's going to be some controversy. And if I don't come, there's going to be some controversy."

...

"I have pride in the record, but records are made to be broken," Aaron told the Tribune. "But the reason I don't want to get involved is everybody is innocent until proven guilty, and we can talk, we can talk, we can talk, but until there's proof, I have no comment."

A few years ago Hank and Barry did a funny commercial in which Bonds is taking batting practice and Henry's voice is coming over the loud speaker discouraging Barry from going for the record. I guess Aaron wants less to do with Bonds at this point.

Mark DeRosa hit his 40th double tonight, joining Gary Matthews, Michael Young and Mark Teixeira in the 40 double club. That ties a major league record for most players with 40 doubles on a team. The 1929 Tigers and the 1932 Phillies both accomplished the feat.

MLB won't celebrate Bonds passing Aaron for the NL home run record. I'm just glad someone else thinks this is important:

It's far from guaranteed that Bonds will hit the 24 home runs he needs to break Aaron's major league record. But breaking the NL mark is not without significance.

It's been 34 years since a league home run record was broken. Mays was still active in 1972 but Aaron outhomered him 34-8. Aaron tied Mays with 648 home runs on May 31 at Atlanta and surged ahead June 10 at Philadelphia.

With the freer movement of players between leagues, the NL record ultimately might prove tougher for another player to break than the major league mark.

I wonder if Selig would be there if someone other than Bonds were breaking this record?

Ichiro stole his 33rd straight base tonight against the Royals, breaking the American League record of former Kansas City outfielder Willie Wilson. That makes him 39 for 41 on the season, the kind of base running even a sabermetrican can love. He also reached 200 hits for the sixth season in a row, one behind the American League record held by Wade Boggs. Unfortunately, it's not helping them win tonight as Kansas City leads 7-2 in the bottom of the 8th.

After three unsuccessful tries, Alfonso Soriano joined the 40-40 club as he stole his 40th base of the season. He missed by one homer in 2002. He picked a great time to have his career year; he'll get a big paycheck in 2007 as a free agent. Since 2002, he ranks 6th in both home runs and stolen bases.

After hitting his 46th homer of the season last night, David Ortiz needs sixteen more in the Red Sox last 35 games to top Roger Maris' American League record. Can he do it? The most he's ever hit in a month was the 14 he socked this July. Five other times he's hit 10 or 11. So if he has a really good last week of August, he'll be in line for the record.

Based on games played and home runs hit, he's on a pace right now for 59. It's not hard to believe he might find a couple of more in there.

The AP reports there were no saves on Saturday:

It marked the first time in nearly three decades a full day of major league games were played without a save recorded.

There were six blown saves in the 15-game schedule, including two each in Pittsburgh's 7-6 victory over Washington, and Cincinnati's 3-2 win against Colorado. The Nationals and Reds both won with ninth-inning rallies.

The last time baseball went a complete day without a save was Sept. 15, 1978, when all 26 teams were in action during a 14-game schedule -- including a doubleheader, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

I guess it's possible to win without a closer! :-)

Dunstin Morse from the Minnesota Twins writes:

After tonight's game, Joe Mauer has reached base four times in five straight games... we believe that this is a Major League record... the previous record was four... set five times:

• Billy Hamilton, Philadelphia (NL), July 21-25,1893.
• Billy Hamilton, Philadelphia (NL), July 20-23 (2), 1894.
• Milt Stock, Brooklyn (NL), June 30-July 3,1925.
• Babe Ruth, New York (AL), June 12-15, 1930.
• Barry Bonds, San Francisco (NL), October 2-5, 2001.

They're double checking this. It's a very impressive feat for Mauer. Joe was 2 for 3 tonight with 2 walks. He has 14 hits, 6 walks and no hit by pitch during the streak and is hitting .700 over the last five games.

Update: Dustin writes that with further research, Mauer tied a record. Two other hitters reached four time in five straight games:

• Brian Downing, TEX AL, 4/13-4/19/1991
• Mike Piazza, LA NL, 8/23/1997-8/27/1997

Interesting that all three were catchers at one time in their careers, although Downing was a DH by the time he set the mark.

I've been trying to research this a bit myself, but it takes a long time to run. Brett Butler had a four game streak in 1995.

Earlier today Sports Bloggers Live interviewed me about what records might be set this season, and we spoke about Albert Pujols chance at Hack Wilson's RBI mark (audio here). When Juan Gonzalez made a run at this mark in 1998, he had a perfect storm of statistics. At the all-star break that year, he came up with more men on base than any other player, and had driven in a higher percentage of those runners than any other player. I wanted to see how Albert was doing in these categories.

I define RBI Pct as (RBI - HR)/Runners On. So it's the percent of men on base that you drive in. Albert ranks fourth among players with at least 100 men on base.

Note that Andruw Jones and Pujols are the only two players with lots of men on base driving in over 20%. It's not quite Gonzalez in 1998, but it's close. Also note that based on the way the Red Sox lineup works, Mark Loretta is in the wrong slot in the order.

Ken Rosenthal details the difficulties pitchers face in trying to win 300 games. He asks, will anyone win 300 after Glavine? Of course, the question makes a big assumption, that Glavine will get there.

My answer to the question is yes. When we talk about 300 game winners disappearing, we are looking at the context of the 1970s, when there were a lot of 300 game winners in that generation. When you look at the list of pitchers with 300 wins, you see a lot of ancient players, and a lot of players who pitched in the 1970s. You don't see a ton of players who had the bulk of their careers in the 1950s or 1960s. The 300 game winner disappeared, then made a comeback when schedules were expanded and teams still tended to use a four man rotation.

It's always been tough to win 300 games. Just as it's always been tough to hit 700 home runs. Despite all the changes and cheating in the last decade, only one player managed to break 600 homers. And yet, we've had two pitchers put up 300 wins and another who is getting close.

Let's look at the list of pitchers with the most wins since 2001, 5+ seasons. Mark Mulder has 93 wins. That's close to 18 wins a season. His seasonal age is 28. With 102 for his career, is it that unlikely he might average 17 wins a season over the next 12 years? Is it something that just can't be done?

How about Mark Buehrle? He's a year younger than Mulder and is at 90 wins for his career. He'll need to average a little over 16 wins a year to get to 300 by the time he's 40. Roy Oswalt is 14 wins behind Mulder at the same age, but a couple of more 20 win seasons and he'll be a contender.

In other words, like the home run chase, lots of people establish themselves early then fade. To say there's no one with a chance now is wrong. There will continue to be great pitchers like Maddux and Clemens in each generation. And writers will continue to say they can't reach 300 wins until they do.

Barry Bonds hit his first home run of the season last night. He went the other way on an outside pitch:

It took longer than expected, but Bonds can count his way down to Babe Ruth on one hand. He took an outside fastball from Aaron Cook and slapped it into the tunnel down the left-field line. The home run came in his 31st at-bat, his longest season-opening homer drought since it took him 55 at-bats in 1998.

What's also interesting is that Bonds feels he needs to connect early in a game:

Bonds also joked that he absolutely had to hit one after Omar Vizquel led off the game with a home run. Bonds said he concentrated on doing something his first at-bat because he is fatiguing in the later innings, even calling his knee pain "overwhelming."

I still think the odds are 50/50 he catches Ruth before his body gives out.

I didn't realize when I looked at the boxscore that Corey Sullivan's two triples against the Padres came in the same inning. That ties a major league record. The Rockies lead the majors with five three-baggers so far this season.

Ken Griffey homered today, passing two other great centerfielders. The homer passes Mantle, but that's not all:

The homer also gave Griffey 1,538 career RBI, breaking his tie with Joe DiMaggio for 31st on the career list.

That's pretty good company.

The Sports Writers for the San Francisco Chronicle and Felipe Alou should get their facts straight:

Giants manager Felipe Alou was scanning the editorial page of a national newspaper and nearly fell out of his chair when he read a piece on Barry Bonds that included the phrase, "If Barry breaks Babe Ruth's record ..."

"I got up and said, what is Babe Ruth's record, most cigars or most hot dogs?" Alou said. "For all the stuff I've read, I don't believe Barry smokes cigars."

When the Giants open the 2006 season in San Diego on Monday, Bonds will resume his march toward the career home-run record, which, for the record, Henry Aaron owns at 755. Bonds has 708, and given the questions about his health and possible punishment stemming from his alleged steroid use, the 47-homer ladder he must climb to reach Aaron seems especially steep.

As I look at the record book, Most Home Runs by Lefthander, Career belongs to Babe Ruth at 714. I don't think that's an insignificant record. When and if Bonds hits 715, Ruth will no longer hold a major league career home run record. If Bonds gets to 734, he also passes Aaron as the all-time NL home run champion. So Barry is facing the possibility of breaking three career records this year.

Update: On a separate note, it doesn't look like Giants fans are going to turn their backs on Barry Bonds.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

The Giants indicated today they will celebrate when and if Bonds passes Babe Ruth:

The Giants brass is brainstorming exactly what to do if Bonds ties Ruth for second place on career list with 714 homers, and then how to honor him if he passes the Babe. Bonds begins the season with 708 home runs.

"It's certainly not going to go unnoticed or uncommemorated," Baer said. "He's our player and it would be a tremendous accomplishment. We don't have a hold on what we're going to do. It won't be silence."

And the Giants have a good reason to celebrate:

The Giants have already sold about 2.5 million tickets, nearly the same number as last season at this time. Magowan isn't concerned about a fallout from the steroids reports, saying: "I'm pretty confident. I think we know our fans pretty well and the fans like Barry and they show up to see him perform. I suspect they will again."

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

According to this article, Jimmy Rollins is ready to pursue the hit streak record:

The Phillies finished one game behind NL wild-card winner Houston despite Rollins' outstanding effort in the final month. He hit .385 (62-for-161) during his season-ending 36-game hitting streak, and now has his sights on breaking Joe DiMaggio's major league record of 56.

There is a catch, though, because DiMaggio did it in the same season. The major league marks for longest hitting streak in one season and longest hitting streak spanning two seasons are separate records.

DiMaggio holds both marks with his 56-game streak in 1941, but there is a difference in the NL records: Pete Rose (1978) and Willie Keeler (1897) share the NL mark at 44 games. However, Keeler got a hit in his final game of 1896, so his run of 45 games overall is the first record Rollins can chase.

"I pretty much started getting ready for it mentally about three weeks ago," Rollins said.

I'm sorry, I just don't buy it. You can't take four months off and then pick up a streak. Streaks end with the season. How many exhibitions will Rollins play between now and then? Break the record within the season, or forget about it.

Craig Biggio broke the modern hit by pitch record when he was plunked today. The Astros won the game 7-1 as Oswalt when seven shutout innings for the victory. He's now 2-0 in his career at Coors.

I thought this was appropriate:

Biggio was hit on the padding guarding his right elbow during the fourth inning of Houston's game against the Rockies, marking the 268th time he's been plunked, the post-1900 record.

The only padding I remember Baylor using were his giant muscles.

Albert Pujols hit his fifth double of the year tonight and is fast approaching 200 for his career (he needs six more). Given that Pujols is only 25, should we start thinking about Albert breaking the doubles record?

The record is 792 by Tris Speaker. Bill James believes a record becomes soft when the yearly leader's total is about 1/18th of the record. For the doubles record that would be 44 a season. Over the first four years of his career, Pujols is averaging 47 doubles a year.

Albert is entering the peak of his career. He's already had two seasons of 50 doubles. If he can put together 250+ doubles over the next five years, he'd enter his 30's about 350 away from the record. That's 35 doubles a year for a player starting to decline. If he lay a very good foundation over the next five seasons (maybe with a couple of 60 double seasons), he'll have a shot at Speaker.

Update: Pujols hit his 2nd double of the night. He's 3 for 4 and has driven in all four runs for the Cardinals this evening.

There some discussion in the comments to this post over a reporter's question to Barry Bonds about Ruth's record. The question was:

In your pursuit of Ruth's record, how do you feel about coming to play -- with the knee surgery, getting prepared, how is that going to delay you?

And the comment that started the discussion was this:

It is infuriating that reporters are asking questions about "Ruth's record". For one, it's wrong, and blatantly so. For another, it simply supports Barry's argument that he (and Aaron, as an extension) gets different treatment from white players.

I don't totally agree with this comment. The comment implies that the reporter sees the home run record as belonging to Babe Ruth. That may be the case, but it also may be that the reporter mispoke, using "record" when he really meant "total." I think that's the most likely explanation. Also, even Barry were perfectly healthy it's unlikely he would break Aaron's record of 755 HR this season. The story in 2005 is Barry passing Ruth.

And when Barry does, he will break a record, most HR by a left-handed batter. Now, I don't think the reporter had that in mind, but it is indeed a record that Ruth holds. (The next closest lefty is Reggie Jackson at 563.) One Aaron record Bonds does have a shot at this season is 733 National League home runs.

So, in this case, I say give the reporter a break. He could have chosen his words better, but I'm sure he realizes Aaron has the home run record.

It's 100%! Ichiro stroked three hits last night to set the major league record with 259 hits in a season. The Japan Times picks up the story. It also notes that Ichiro holds the single season hit record in Japan as well. I guess he's no flash in Japan! :-)

Ichiro is up, and George Sisler's family is in the audience.

Update: Ichiro ties the record with a single. It was a chopper that hit in front of Blalock at third and bounce way over his head. The crowd is cheering, and Ichiro doffs his helmet in response. Once more and the record is all his.

Update: In his 2nd AB, leading off the third inning, Ichro drives a ball between the shortstop and 2nd base for hit #258. Congratulations to the new hit king! Fireworks went off, the Mariners dugout emptied to congratulate Suzuki and Ichiro went over to the stands to acknowledge George Sisler's daughter. The Rangers doffed their caps to Ichiro, and the crowd is still on their feet cheering. What an achievement!

Ichiro Suzuki had one hit yesterday to bring himself to 256 hits, one shy of the record and two shy of breaking it. He returns to Seattle this evening to attempt to break the record in front of his home town fans. The following calculation is based on Ichiro getting 13 more AB this season.

If Ichiro gets four AB today, he has between a 42 and 47% chance of breaking the record tonight.

Ichiro grounded out in his first AB today. He needs two hits to tie, three to break the record.

Update: After an Olivo double and a Crosby error, Ichiro drives in Olivo with a single, putting him just one hit behind Sisler. Mariners lead 1-0 in the third.

Update: In the fifth, Ichiro strikes out after a long AB on a pitch in the dirt.

Update: In the seventh, Ichiro lifts a soft fly ball to shallow left that Byrnes charges and catches.

Update: In the ninth, Dotel strikes out Ichiro to end the inning. Suzuki is now 0 for 6 vs. Dotel.

Adam Dunn just struck out for the 2nd time in the game and the 190th time this season, setting a new major league record. Prior now has 8 K through four innings, and the Cubs game remains scoreless.

Ichiro Suzuki went 1 or 3 last night, picking up his 255th hit. He now needs 3 hits to break Sisler's record, set in 1920. The odds continue to indicate that he will break the record decisively. The following calculation is based on Suzuki getting 17 more AB this season.

Ichiro could break the record tonight. If he gets four AB he has a chance of at least three hits in the range of 11 to 15%. For five AB, that jumps to 21 to 27%.

Two more hits for Ichiro Suzuki last night as the Mariners continued to make the AL West race close with a 7-2 victory over the Oakland Athletics. Ichiro now needs four more hits to break George Sisler's hit record. The following is based on Ichrio getting 22 more AB this season.

With just four hits needed, the record could be broken tonight. If he gets five AB tonight, Ichiro has between a 5 and 7% chance of getting four hits.

Ichiro Suzuki had 1 hit last night as the Mariners lost a close one to the Athletics 6-5. He now needs six hits in his last six games to break the record held by George Sisler. This calculation is based on Ichiro getting another 26 AB this season.

There have been a number of inquiries in the last day as to how I calculate these odds. I wrote them out for a statistics professor yesterday, so I'll repeat that letter here in the extended entry.

Ichiro Suzuki had 1 hit yesterday as the Mariners continue to spoil the playoff hopes of the AL West teams. Their 9-0 victory yesterday prevented Texas from gaining ground on Oakland. The following probabilities are based on Ichiro getting 31 more AB in 7 games.

As the number of trials go down, the confidence ranges are starting to merge. The mid point is about 11 more hits, so unless he sits after breaking the record, it appears he'll break it by a good amount.

Ichirio went 1 for 5 last night, lowering his odds for breaking the record, but they still are very high. The following is based on his getting 35 AB over his last 8 games.

Ichiro Suzuki picked up 2 more hits last night as the Mariners continued their spoiler role, defeating Texas 8-7. Suzuki now needs 9 hits in an estimated 39 AB to break George Sisler's hit record.

For the first time since I've been keeping track of this, both probabilities are at 95% or above. 95 Percent is considered significant; in other words, at this level, it would be significant if Ichiro didn't break the record.

By the way, today is game 154 for the Mariners. I don't think he'll get 9 hits today.

Another big night for Ichiro Suzuki, as he picks up 4 hits as the Mariners rout the Angels. In two nights, Ichiro has gone from looking shaky to looking like a sure thing to break the record of 257 hits in one season by George Sisler. These numbers are based on Ichrio getting 44 more AB this season.

Just so people are clear on what these numbers mean, let's look at the probability based on Ichiro's career. Ichiro is currently a career .339 hitter. If you took a .339 hitter, gave him 44 AB, recorded the results and repeated the experiment thousands of times, you would find that he would break the record in 92.3% of those experiments. You would also find that in 95% of the experiments, he accumulated between 9 and 21 hits. (In 2.5% of the experiments he would get less than 9 hits; in another 2.5% of experiments he'd get more than 21 hits.) Notice, two that we would expect his BA to be anywhere from .205 to .473.

So in April, when Ichiro had 102 AB and 26 hits, he was at the low range of his 95% confidence interval (25 to 44). However, July and August were both outliers for Ichiro. The 95% confidence interval for July was 30 to 50, and Ichiro knocked out 51 hits. In August, the interval was 31 to 51, and Ichiro had 56 hits.

To take this back to yesterday's discussion, maybe Melvin should not have freed him from working on plate discipline. His April numbers could have happened by chance. (Not mentioned is that he hit .274 in June.) If the Mariners had forced Suzuki to try to be selective for another month, he might have hit .400 in May anyway.

Ichiro Suzuki banged out five hits last night, putting him back in a likely position to break George Sisler's hit record. He needs 15 hits in an estimated 48 AB.

Last night's performance was a great example of how luck and ability work together to produce hits. Only one of Suzuki's hits was a solid single, a line drive to left center. The other were balls that could have been played if the fielder was positioned differently. On one, the fielder did get to the ball on the outfield grass, but Suzuki is so fast there was no chance of throwing him out. You might say he hit the ball almost where they ain't and let his speed make up for the difference. He makes putting the ball in play look easy.

Ichiro has three hits tonight in the first four innings. He needs a big hit night to get his odds of breaking Sisler's record up again, and so far he's doing it. His teammates are also supplying some offense for a change; that should help him get an extra AB or two.

Update: Ichiro got hit #4 in the top of the 6th.

Update: Suzuki got hit #5 in the top of the 8th. That should bring the odds of his breaking the hit record over 50% based on his career average.

Suzuki knocked out 2 hits last night, putting him 20 hits away from breaking George Sisler's record of 257 hits. These odds are based on an estimate of 52 remaining AB for Ichiro.

Ichiro Suzuki only accumulated 3 hits in the four days I was gone, and his odds of breaking Sisler's record have dropped with his falling batting average. He'll need 22 hits in an estimated 57 AB over the Mariners last 13 games to break the record.

The record is still well within the 95% confidence range. So while at this point it's more likely that he won't break the record, he could still do it without his batting average being significantly different that his career average (statistically speaking).

Suzuki had 1 hit last night. He now needs 25 hits in the Mariners 17 remaining games to break George Sisler's record of 257 hits in a season. I estimate that he has 74 AB left. The odds continue to fall:

Ichiro had a double in four AB last night, but the odds of his breaking Sisler's record of 257 hits continue to drop. These figures are based on an estimate of 79 remaining AB.

Suzuki went 0 for 4 last night, and the odds of him breaking Sisler's hit record of 257 have fallen:

He's still more likely than not to break the record. He'll need a couple of big games down the stretch, however.

Bill James pens an article for the Hardball Times on how the 162-game schedule is giving Suzuki a huge boost in his effort to break Sisler's hit record.

Given the eight extra games, Ichirox tied or broke Sisler’s record 8,462 times in 200,000 seasons, or once every 24 years. Whereas the longer schedule increased Marix’ chance of breaking or tying Ruth’s record by 177%, it increased Ichirox’ chance of breaking or tying Sisler’s record by 901%.

For me to try to tell you how surprised I am by this answer would be a waste of my time and yours, but ... I certainly did not expect this. Heisman speculated that it would be “easier, but not dramatically so.” I would have agreed. In fact, the impact is (about) five times greater on Ichiro than it was on Maris.

The irony is that whereas the extra eight games on the schedule created a mega-furor when Maris broke Ruth’s record, the same factor is being almost totally ignored as Ichiro gets set to cruise past Sisler, even though this edge was a hamster for Maris, and is a gorilla for Ichiro. The reason for the muted reaction, of course, is that, when Maris had his moment broiling in the sun, the 162-game schedule was new, and thus controversial. But most of you reading this weren’t even born then, and the 162-game schedule has long since ceased to be a curiosity. On the one hand, the 162-game schedule has been around so long, and so many players have already “had” Ichiro’s advantage, that this no longer seems to be any big deal, while on the other hand, Barry Bonds in the last few years has so thoroughly trashed the record book that we’re all sort of numb to it. Nobody cares about that stuff anymore.

It's interesting that Bill did this study using a computer simulation when he could have done it using probability theory. If you have a .350 hitter, and give him 651 AB, his probability of getting at least 257 hits is .00971. If you give the same hitter 684 AB, the probability jumps to .08573, or 880% higher!

Correction: Fixed a typo, the above paragraph should have read 257 hits instead of .651 hits.

Correction: Fixed link.

Ichiro Suzuki picked up two more hits yesterday to bring his total for the season to 231. He needs 27 more hits in the Mariners' last 20 games to break George Sisler's record of 257 hits in a season.

Another 0 for Suzuki last night has knocked down his odds of breaking the record, although it still looks like he'll pass Sisler. This latest estimate is based on an estimate of 92 more AB for Ichiro this season.

It's the first time Ichiro has gone consecutive games without a hit since April 28-29 at Baltimore, and only the third time this season that he's gone hitless in two straight games.

Suzuki went 0 for 4 last night, and still needs 29 hits to break George Sisler's record of 257.

Ichiro Suzuki went 2 for 4 last night, giving him 229 hits on the season. He needs 29 hits in the Mariners last 23 games to break Sisler's record of 257. Here are the current probabilities:

Ichiro is on a 14 game hitting streak in which he's collected 30 hits.

Ichiro Suzuki had 1 hit last night, lowering his odds of breaking George Sisler's hit record a bit. Here's the latest, estimating that Ichiro has 105 AB left this season in 24 games.

The midpoint of the two 95% confidence intervals are 39 and 35. The average of those two are 37. So I'm guessing he gets 37 more hits this season, giving him 264 for the new record.

Ichiro Suzuki had 2 hits last night against the Indians (the Mariners had five total). Needless to say the odds are up again. Ichiro now needs 32 hits to break the record.

Unlike Bonds, the opposition has no problem pitching to Ichiro, since most of his hits are singles (15.5% of Suzuki's hits are for extra bases) and there's no one to drive Ichiro in once he's on base (he's only scored 89 runs despite great on-base numbers). They'll keep pitching to him.

Ichiro went 1 for 4 yesterday. This has dropped his probability of breaking the record a small amount, but he still has a high probability of getting 258 hits. This table sums up the numbers.

There are two issues with these numbers I'd like to discuss. The first is the chance of an injury. This could easily be included in the calculation as a conditionaly probability. However, given Suzuki's history of non-injury, I think that factor would be very low (he's missed 13 games in four years). Basically if he gets injured the probability goes to 0.

The other issue is the "he can't stay this hot issue." Since the start of July, Ichiro has hit .458. But I'm not arguing that he's going to stay hot. With about 114 AB left this season, he has to go 34/114, or hit .298 the rest of the way to break the record. This is why the odds of him breaking the record are so good. As one reader writes:

What I’m saying is that despite his current pace, I think it is unlikely for him to keep it up aginast the better pitching teams that are playing more intense defense due to playoff quests.

Okay, but if better pitching drops his average to .298, he still breaks the record! It's similar to 1998, when McGwire was going for Maris' record. He hit so many HR early in the season, that even if he just fell back to his career pace, he'd hit more than 61 HR. Ichiro has been hot for so long, even just a good finish to the season is going to take him to 258. And I think Ichiro is more than capable of hitting .298 the rest of the way.

In a sense, the "hot" argument is about the independence of at bats. I'm assuming that each AB is an independent sample of the ballplayer's ability to get a hit. For example, if you were watching a roulette wheel, and saw 20 straight turns that came up black, you would not expect the probability of the next spin coming up black to change from 18/38. The history of the wheel doesn't matter. What matters is how many spaces are on the table, and how many of those are black.

Now, it could be that AB are not independent of each other. Okay, but I've yet to see real convincing evidence of the validity of that concept. (See the book Curveball for a discussion of streakiness.) The simple model I've presented is a good one. After all, using Ichiro's career numbers, it predicts he'll hit somewhere between .254 and .430 over his last 114 AB. That's seems a very reasonable range, and once again enforces the idea that anything can happen over 100 AB.

And as a final note to the above comment, has hit Boston, Oakland, Texas and Anaheim very well this year. He's a combined .353 against those clubs.

Ichiro's five hits last night brought his chance of breaking the hit record very close to 100%. Based on his performance this year, he's nearly a shoe in. Based on his career, it's still close to 90%. This table sums up the numbers.

The question now, I believe, is not if he's going to break it, but by how much.

Ichiro Suzuski is making a very good run at Geogre Sisler's 1920 record of 257 hits in a season. Ichiro needs 44 hits in his last 30 games to break the record. Based on what he's done this year, if he plays every game, he'll get another 132 AB. Given his .372 BA this season, the probability of Suzuki breaking the record in that number of AB is 0.84. Those are really good odds. There is a 95% chance that Suzuki will get between 38 and 60 hits the rest of the year.

Even if you use his career average of .338, Ichiro still has a 58% chance of breaking the record, and the 95% confidence interval is 34 to 55 hits. That should keep fans in the stands in Seattle.

As everyone watches Barry Bonds strive to reach Ruth and Aaron, he fast approaching another record. Barry pinch-hit and drew a walk today, the 2150th of his career. He's now just 40 walks behind Rickey Henderson for the all-time lead. Given that Barry has 12 base on balls in the first week of June, he should reach Rickey easily by the All-Star break. I guess that will give Henderson an even bigger incentive to try to return to the big leagues.

Congratulations to Mike Piazza and Roger Clemens. Piazza homered last night to set the record for catchers at 352, passing Carlton Fisk. We'll have to see how much he catches from now on.

Clemens passed Steve Carlton for 2nd on the all-time strikeout list. Clemens is now 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA. Clemens is fifth in the NL in ERA, and with his 6-0 record you have to start wondering if another Cy Young award is in his future.

I also noticed, looking at the top five ERA leaders, that the veterans appear to be having great years. Three of the top five are Leiter, Glavine and Clemens. It's a good year to be an old pitcher. :-)

Greg Skidmore at Sport Law Blog links to a Wall Street Journal article about the asterisk that wasn't there.

What you see in the Sporting News Complete Baseball Record Book are records broken down for 162 and 154 game seasons, if the 162 game record is higher. My guess is that they would have done it even if Maris had not broken the record in 1961. It just makes sense. It got a lot of publicity because people didn't want Maris to break the record.