Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 02, 2008
Cycle Monday
Permalink

Stephen Drew and Adrian Beltre both hit for the cycle Monday:

It was the first time two players hit for the cycle on the same day since Sept. 17, 1920, when Bobby Veach of the Detroit Tigers and George Burns of the New York Giants did it, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Both players collected five hits, Drew with two doubles and Beltre with two singles. Stephen did a bit less damage with his cycle, scoring three times and driving in one, while Beltre scored five runs and drove in three. Adrian is on a nice eight game hitting streak in which he's scored 12 runs and driven in 9. This is more of what Seattle expected when they signed him for the 2005 season.

Drew's hits are coming in bunches lately. It's his third multi-hit game in a row and he has ten of those in his last 17 games. Both these teams need these two players to hit well down the stretch, in Seattle's case to end the year on a high note, and for Arizona to hold off the Dodgers in the NL West.

Update: Dave Cameron notes how similar the two are as hitters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 29, 2008
Ichiro at 3000
Permalink

Ichiro Suzuki singled in the first inning tonight, bringing his combined hit total in the Japanese and North American major leagues to 3000. Congratulations to Ichiro on reaching that career milestone at only 34 years old.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 28, 2008
Ziegler's Zeros
Permalink

Brad Ziegler set a record Sunday:

Ziegler pitched two scoreless innings Sunday afternoon at the Coliseum to take sole possession of the record for consecutive shutout innings at the start of a career. His 27 scoreless innings passed George McQuillan, who set the mark at 25 with Philadelphia in 1907.

On a day that fellow reliever Jerry Blevins and closer Huston Street had their own milestones in the A's 6-5 win over Texas, it was Ziegler who made the most significant mark on baseball history and was asked to send his cleats and hat to Cooperstown.

"I've never had anything handed to me in my career, and that makes this even more satisfying," said Ziegler, who twice has endured skull fractures, was released and relegated to an independent league and was asked to completely revamp the pitching delivery after his stellar minor-league numbers went unnoticed.

He's given up very few hits for a pitcher with low strikeout and walk totals. Opponents are hitting just .188 against him with no extra-base hits. He's striking out just 4.3 per nine innings. The Oakland defense must be playing great behind him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
July 27, 2008
Climbing the List
Permalink

David Ortiz's home run ties him with Jimmie Foxx for 8th on the Red Sox home run list. He should be sixth soon enough as Doerr has 223 and Vaughn is sixth with 230.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 14, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones went 0 for 2 Sunday to lower his average to .376. The probability of his hitting .400 gets a bump down, making the odds about 1 in 18,000. Here's the latest graph of the probability of Jones hitting .400.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 13, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones went 3 for 4 Saturday night to raise his average to .378. The probability of his hitting .400 gets a bump, making the odds long but below 1 in 10,000. Here's the latest graph of the probability of Jones hitting .400.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 12, 2008
Sights on Schmidt
Permalink

Alex Rodriguez hit his 537th home run of his career against Toronto this afternoon, breaking the tie for 13th place with Mickey Mantle. Next up in twelfth place is Mike Schmidt at 548. The Yankees offense worked well today, defeating Toronto 9-4. Jeter, A-Rod and Gardner each drove in three runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 05, 2008
Chipper's Fall
Permalink

The Braves fall 6-1 to the Astros as Chipper Jones goes 0 for 4. The probability of his hitting .400 drops to .00020, or 1 in 5000. As you can see from the latest graph of Chipper's probability of hitting .400, the last time he got this low he did bounce back.

The Braves keep sliding, however. They've lost six of their last seven games and stand six games under .500.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 01, 2008
No Ball in the Hall
Permalink

The Hall of Fame will not display the ball Barry Bonds hit for his 756th home run.

"The owner's previous commitment to unconditionally donate the baseball has changed to a loan. As a result, the Hall of Fame will not be able to accept the baseball," the Hall said in a statement.

"Should the owner choose to unconditionally donate the ball to the museum at a future date, we would be delighted and of course, accept his offer," it said.

Good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 30, 2008
Approaching a Milestone
Permalink

Long time commenter Devon Young started his own blog. His first entry notes that Ichiro Suzuki is just 30 hits away from 3000 if you combine his Japanese and MLB statistics. If he can sustain his 200+ hit level for a few more years, he may reach 3000 in the majors. Given he came to the majors late, that would be a fantastic feat. He's also a good bet to pick up more hits than Pete Rose when you combine his entire career.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones did not play today, which increased the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His batting average remains at .393 but his sitting out reduced the expected number of at bats he'll accumulate this season. His current probability is 0.00037, or about 1 in 2700.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones felt well enough to pinch hit Friday night, and delivered an RBI single in the eighth inning. That cut Seattle's lead to 4-3, and the Braves won the game with two runs off Batista trying to close in the 9th.

The 1 for 1 for Chipper increased the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. He increase his batting average to .393 and reduced the number of expected at bats this season by not playing much. His current probability is 0.00029, or about 1 in 3450.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The Mariners crushed the Braves 10-2 Friday night, and Chipper's chance of hitting .400 lost ground as well. Jones went 0 for 2 with a walk, and had to leave the game after aggravating his quad injury. He expects to miss the next two games.

The hitless night dropped the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00020, or about 1 in 5000.


Posted by StatsGuru at 07:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The Braves fell to the Rangers 5-4 Thursday afternoon, and Chipper Jones fell below .400. His 0 for 4 dropped his batting average to .394. That's the first time Chipper ended the day below .400 since April 12th. That's an impressive two month run over the magic batting average. Taking the collar dropped the probability of his reaching .400 for the season, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00028, or about 1 in 3570.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

A big ninth inning for the Braves breaks a 2-2 tie and Atlanta defeats Texas 5-2. The three run ninth, however, hurts Chipper a little bit. He was 2 for 4, but the offense caused him to come up a fifth time, and he made the last out of the inning to go 2 for 5 and remain exactly at .400. Despite the two hits, the five at bats increased his projected number of at bats this season, so his probability of hitting .400 went down, as you can see in the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400. His current probability is 0.00045, or about 1 in 2220.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones went 2 for 4 Monday night, raising his batting average to .403. Despite this, the performance lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00047, or about 1 in 2125. With four at bats today, his projected at bats for the season went up, accounting for the slight drop in probability.

The following table show the kinds of slumps Chipper would need to suffer to lower his BA to .400:

Chipper Jones Slump Table
HitsAt Bats
Zero2
One4
Two7
Three9
Four12
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones failed to pick up a hit Sunday night, going 0 for 4 as the Braves lose to the Angels 2-0. He's now batting .402 and the poor performance lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00048, or about 1 in 2080. His probability of hitting .400 was cut in half from yesterday.

The following table show the kinds of slumps Chipper would need to suffer to lower his BA to .400:

Chipper Jones Slump Table
HitsAt Bats
Zero1
One3
Two6
Three8
Four11

Chipper is in danger of falling under .400 on Monday for the first time since games of April 12th. His lowest BA since then was exactly .400 (52/130) through games of May 10th. He always seems to bounce off the .400 mark, but he's a bit banged up right now. The good news for Jones is that the Braves play at Coors tomorrow, where Chipper is a career .324 hitter. Over the last seven seasons Chipper's hit even better there, .354.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones failed to pick up a hit Saturday night, going 0 for 3 with two walks. He's now batting .409 and the 0 for 3 lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00097, or about 1 in 1030. He was better than 1 in 1000 for five dates.

The following table show the kinds of slumps Chipper would need to suffer to lower his BA to .400:

Chipper Jones Slump Table
HitsAt Bats
Zero5
One8
Two10
Three13
Four15
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 14, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones did not play on Friday due to a freak gardening accident:

Jones, hitting .414 with 15 homers and 41 RBIs, fouled off a pitch while taking his last round of BP and the ball ricocheted off the crossbar at the top of the batting cage, striking him just under his left eye. The five-time All-Star suffered a contusion and was taken for a CT scan, which was negative. He returned to the clubhouse in the ninth inning.

"I didn't know it was going to take three hours to get an X-ray," Jones said. "They put me through all the tests, and I'm just experiencing a little blurred vision in close. Other than that, I'm fine.

"The first thing that flashed into my mind was when I was 9 or 10 years old, when I saw a kid hit a foul ball off his eye and he lost his eye. But it got me just below the eye. I've been sucker-punched a few times there, so I can take it. I hope that I don't have a big old fat shiner tomorrow."

Nice macho posturing by Chipper there. In twenty years he'll be telling reporters how he hit .400 with one eye and a hamstring held together by duct tape. :-)

He's still batting .414 and the day off raised the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00113, or about 1 in 885.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 12, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones ended Thursday's extra-inning game 1 for 5 with a walk. He's now batting .414 and lowered the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00104, or about 1 in 960.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:01 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 11, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones started Wednesday night and went one for three with a walk. He's now batting .419 and raised the probability of his hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00174, or about 1 in 575.

Nate Silver wrote a piece for Baseball Prospectus (subscription may be required) in which he uses Bayes Theorem to estimate Chipper's real batting average is now much closer to .350 than to .310. I'm not sure I buy it, but I want to sleep on it before commenting. Given that it might be true, I have a question that I'd like people to take a crack at in the comments. What would cause a player in his mid 30s to have such a tremendous jump in performance?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Chipper and the Changing Game
Permalink

Tom Verducci pens an excellent article on why it's tougher to hit .400 today. He makes a great point about the number of different pitchers a batter faces:

Brett was hitting .287 as deep into the 1980 season as May 30, then erupted on a 31-game tear in which he hit a ridiculous .496, raising his average to .390. The chase was on. Brett was hitting .400 as late as Sept. 19. But his quest died over the next seven games. Brett went 4-for-27 that week and wound up at .390. Turn just four of those outs that week into hits and he would have hit .400.

But when you look at those seven games that killed the quest, you understand how much things have changed from Brett to Jones. In those seven games Brett never faced a relief pitcher. Think about that for a minute. A full week of games seeing only one pitcher per game.

Opposing starting pitchers threw every inning but two (63 of 65) against Brett's Royals in that seven-game stretch. Those starters were Matt Keough, Mike Norris, Floyd Bannister, Jim Beattie, Rick Honeycutt, Geoff Zahn and Jerry Koosman. Brett had to be concerned with only one pitcher per night. No closers and no lefthanded specialists. Jones typically will face three or four different pitchers a night, facing constant adjustments in velocity, style, release points and such. Expansion and interleague play have added to the variety.

He also offers a chart showing the number of pitchers faced by Williams in 1941, Brett in 1980, Larry Walker in 1999, and Chipper Jones last year.

On the other hand, seeing more pitchers may mean seeing more pitchers who aren't as good. That may even things out a bit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:34 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones pinch hit Tuesday night and walked. The no at bat game raised his probability of hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. When Chipper misses games, or doesn't receive an at bat, his projected number of at bats drops. Fewer at bats gives him a better chance or reaching .400. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00138, or about 1 in 725.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:06 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 08, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

Chipper Jones did not play today due to an injury that may sideline him for a couple of games. That actually raised his probability of hitting .400, as the latest graph of Jones's probability of hitting .400 shows. When Chipper misses games, his projected number of at bats drops. Fewer at bats gives him a better chance or reaching .400. Chipper's probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00127, or about 1 in 800.

You'll also notice I've added three other graphs at the request of some readers. George Brett 1980, Rod Carew 1977 and Ted Williams 1941 join Chipper. All three are interesting, and you'll find my commentary at the link.

Update: Devon Young sends this Sports Illustrated slide show of players to .400 late into the season since 1980.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Jones Sits
Permalink

The Braves start Chipper Jones on the bench today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 07, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.000914 a tick down after a 1 for 3 on Saturday night. He's now batting .420 on the season. That probability gives him about a 1 in 1100 chance of hitting .400. In 17 dates he's gone from about a 1 in 10000 to close to a 1 in 1000 chance. If he gets to 1 in 100 that quickly, we could be looking at serious run at .400.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.001059, the highest it's been this season. His two for three Friday raised his average to .421. He'll need an 0 for 12 to fall below .400.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
June 06, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.000959, the highest it's been this season. His four for five yesterday raised his average to .418. I keep waiting for the slump, and the slump doesn't happen.

Devon Young sends the following information showing Chipper tends to hit better in the second half of the season:

1995: .248/.282 (+34)
1996: .300/.321 (+21)

1997: .307/.281 (-26)
1998: .309/.318 (+9)
1999: .313./.328 (+15)
2000: .320/.301 (-19)
2001: .308/.356 (+48)
2002: .307/.353 (+46)

2003: .289/.325 (+36)
2004: .214/.278 (+64)
2005: .282/.307 (+25)
2006: .315/.341 (+26)
2007: .329/.345 (+16)

Chipper's going to be fun to watch. Right now, he needs an 0 for 10 to fall below .400, so he should remain there at least two more games.

Update: Congratulations also to Chipper on his 400th career home run!

Correction: Someone emailed to ask how I did the calculation. In stepping through it I discovered a rounding bug that caused a underestimation of the hits needed for a .400 average sometimes. Instead of usings round, I'm now usings roundup for the hits calculation. That lowers his current probability of hitting .400 to 0.000655915. I've updated the graph.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
June 03, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.00036, the second highest it's been this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
It Depends How You Look at It
Permalink

Big League Stew wonders why the record for home runs by a second baseman is 42 and not 43:

If you've been reading the AP reports during Utley's current run to 21 HR, you'll see that it notes he has to hit 42 homers to tie both Rogers Hornsby (1922) and Davey Johnson (1973).

But as many have pointed out -- and at least one newspaper corrected -- Johnson actually hit 43 round trippers in '73, which would make him the sole single-season HR champ for 2B.

Why the mixup? Well, if you look at Johnson's home run log for '73, you'll see that he did hit 43 homers for the Braves that season. However, visiting the box score for the June 17 game against the Cubs shows that Johnson entered the game in the seventh inning as a pinch hitter for Sonny Jackson and responded with a three-run shot that gave Atlanta the lead.

But even though Johnson stayed in the game as a second baseman, the HR apparently counts at a pinch-hit, which is reflected in both the AP and the records at Baseball Almanac. (I'd try to doublecheck that at MLB.com, but the site keeps crashing my browser ... help?)

Although we tend to think of records as something concrete, they really aren't. If you define the record as "Home Runs as a Second Baseman" then 42 is correct. Davey Johnson was a pinch hitter, not a second baseman when he hit the extra home run. There's no reason to assume he would stay in the game. (By the way, it's possible to bat without a position. If you pinch run or pinch hit, then come up again in the same inning, you are listed as having no position in the second plate appearance.)

However, if you define the record as "Home Runs by a Second Baseman" then I think the record is 43. What I often do when I don't have play by play information is figure out the primary position for a fielder in a season, usually by most games played at a position that year. So if someone plays 100 games at second and 20 games at third in a particular year, I list him as a second baseman and count all his stats. Neither is more correct that the other. You do the best you can with the data that's available.

I think we can be pretty sure, however, that if Utley hits 44 homers, he'll have some second base record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 02, 2008
Graphing Chipper
Permalink

The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Erasing History
Permalink

Cameron Martin notes two omissions from an MLB commerical promoting Griffey's pursuit of 600 home runs:

During Sunday's Red Sox/Orioles game, which I watched on MLB.TV, the league ran a promotional commercial for Ken Griffey's approach to 600 home runs. Backed by maudlin piano music, a Costas-like narrator says the following script, to the accompaniment of pictures and video:

"Willie Mays, September 22, 1969...600.
Babe Ruth, August 21, 1931...600.
Hank Aaron, April 27, 1971...600."

Then the screen flips to Griffey, who sits at 599, and he says, "Ken Griffey Jr.... keep watching."

Only five men in Major League Baseball history have hit 600 home runs - the aforementioned three, plus Barry Bonds (762) and Sammy Sosa (609). So, why weren't the dates of their 600th home runs included in MLB's tribute to Griffey's pursuit? I guess it's possible that mentioning all five players would take too long for a quick, effective commercial. And I guess it's possible that Barry Bonds will make the Hall of Fame someday. What's more likely, however, is that Major League Baseball is whitewashing history.

This reminds me of Animal Farm.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2008
Still the King?
Permalink

Henry Aaron still considers himself the home run king. People used to make arguments that Babe Ruth was still the home run king, because he hit his 714 long balls in a lot less at bats than Henry did. Some people just don't like to let go of old records. Twenty years after Aaron broke Ruth's record, no one tried to make that argument anymore. Twenty years from now, no one will think Aaron is the home run king, either.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
May 12, 2008
Approaching 500
Permalink

Manny Ramirez hit home run 498 in the first inning tonight. Ramirez is more than capable of hitting three in a game, although he only did twice in his career. The dates were 9/15/1998 and 8/25/1999.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
A Record to Root For?
Permalink

Shawn Chacon can set a major league record if he gets a no decision in his next start. I hope the Houston fans travel up to Arlington to cheer, "ND! ND!" when Shawn faces the Rangers on Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 06, 2008
Approaching Milestone
Permalink

Manny Ramirez came into tonight's game against the Tigers without a home run in fourteen games. That left him stuck at 496. He finally broke that streak in the seventh inning tonight, going back-to-back with David Ortiz for 497. The Red Sox lead 5-0 behind a one-hitter by Tim Wakefield. Unlike Matsuzaka Monday night, Tim hasn't walked a batter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 28, 2008
The Walk RBI
Permalink

Carlos Quentin may shatter the record for bases loaded walks.

Update: This should be HBPs, not walks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:36 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 14, 2008
No Sacrifice
Permalink

BBTF notes a record set by Frank Thomas yesterday, most plate appearances without a sacrifice hit.

Intentional walks and sacrifice hits pretty much have the same dividing line when it comes to who should bunt and who shouldn't be walked. Changing Walk/Don't Walk lights to Ruth/Mendoza would work really well. Frank is definitely at the Walk/Don't Bunt end of the spectrum.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 05, 2008
Chasing Rose
Permalink

Ken Rosenthal looks at the chances of Jeter and A-Rod breaking Pete Rose's hit record. If Alex catches up a bit to Jeter in hits, it could make for a very interesting season 11 or 12 years from now. Both would be way beyond their primes, but driven to break they record they keep playing. They might be so close that any day might put one in front of the other. The probability is it won't happen, but it would be a huge story for MLB.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 02, 2007
Twins Won't Fold
Permalink

Joe Christensen writes that the Twins are holding out for the deal they want in order to trade Santana. Fred Claire did the same:

I tried finding a precedent to this madness, and former Dodgers GM Fred Claire has a similar memory. He was a first-year GM heading into the 1987 winter meetings, and he made it known that pitcher Bob Welch was available. Soon, the whole industry was waiting for that development.

"In some sense, we were controlling the tempo of the winter meetings," Claire said in a telephone interview this week. "In fact, [then Mets GM] Joe McIlvaine said, 'Nothing can happen because Fred's holding up the winter meetings.' "

Claire held his ground. Finally, he swung a three-team deal with the A's and Mets that brought the Dodgers shortstop Alfredo Griffin and relievers Jay Howell and Jesse Orosco. Welch went to Oakland, but the three new Dodgers helped them defeat the A's in the 1988 World Series.

My guess is that the Red Sox and Yankees would be happy to have the Twins pull out of the deals entirely, so that neither side gets the pitcher. Then the GMs can go ahead and develop their own talent.

Update: It looks like the Red Sox added Ellsbury to the deal, but told the Twins they can't have both Jacoby and Lester.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 17, 2007
Fish Stories
Permalink

FishStripes presents a look bad at an historical weekend for the Marlins.

Sammy Sosa broke the record for most home runs before his first grand slam, although I don't know if he still holds it.

Correction: Fixed the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 16, 2007
A-Rod Odds
Permalink

The odds of Alex Rodriguez passing Maris are getting longer every day. It looks like he'll only get about sixty two more plate appearances, and with his HR/PA at .08 for the season, the probability of ten more home runs is now just .025, or about 1 in 40. Not low enough to quite count him out, but nothing I'd want to wager on at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 15, 2007
A-Rod Odds
Permalink

Alex Rodriguez did not hit a home run last night. Given that he has about 67 plate appearances left, the odds of him hitting ten home runs and breaking Maris' AL single season home run record is .04, or about 1 in 25.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 13, 2007
A-Rod Odds
Permalink

No home runs for Alex Rodriguez last night, knocking the long shot odds down a bit again. If he plays all seventeen remaining games, Alex should get about 76 more plate appearances. With his home run rate this season .0816 HR/PA, the probability of his hitting at least ten more home runs is 0.08944, or about 1 in 11.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 09, 2007
Double Trouble
Permalink

Todd Helton picked up his thirty fifth double of the season today, the tenth straight season he's reached that plateau. According to the broadcast, he's the first player to accomplish that feat. All-time record holder Tris Speaker misses twelve straight years of thirty five when the 1918 season was cut short due to WWI. Speaker had 33 when the season ended. He hit over 40 the previous two seasons, then at least 35 each of the next nine years.

More importantly, the Rockies win 4-2, taking two out of three from San Diego and gaining a game in the NL Wild Card race over the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 23, 2007
Historic Night in Baltimore
Permalink

The Texas Rangers ended up scoring nine runs in game two of their double header with the Orioles to win the night cap 9-7. At one point it looked like they might score 36 runs on the day and come away with a split. But the Rangers came through, scoring three times in the eighth to shatter the modern record for runs in a double header with 39. Here's a composite offensive listing for the two games. Brad Wilkerson was the only one of the thirteen players used not to get a hit, and even he managed to drive in a run with a sacrifice fly.

Evan Grant details the interesting stats from the game at the end of this article, and notes:

It was quite a turnaround for Washington, who only hours earlier had lamented the difficulty he's having in putting together a lineup on a nightly basis. With the Rangers in full evaluation mode, Washington is playing three or four rookies per night and scrambling to find run producers.

The Rangers' offense has been, at best, sporadic. And since the trade of Mark Teixeira on July 31 combined with a reduced role for Sammy Sosa, it's become one of the least effective in the AL. The Rangers entered the doubleheader ranked 11th in the AL in August runs scored (72) and 12th in batting average (.250). They had managed to score just 28 runs - total - in their previous nine games.

After yesterday, they rank 8th in the majors in runs per game for August with a mark of 5.55.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 22, 2007
Texas Ties the Record
Permalink

The Rangers plate a single run in the fifth inning, tying the record for most runs scored in a double header. The game is in the bottom of the sixth now, Texas leading 6-5, so they have three chances set a new record.

Update: Jay Payton singles home two in the bottom of the seventh to put the Orioles on top 7-6. He got the hit with two outs and the bases loaded. The Rangers will need to break the double header record to win this game.

Update: The Rangers come through Metcalf singles in Nelson Cruz to tie the game and set the AL and modern record for runs scored in a double header, 37.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
At It Again
Permalink

The Rangers score three in the top of the second. The AL record and the modern record for runs in a double header is 36 by the Tigers on August 14, 1937. In game Boston scored 29 runs and in the double header record by Detroit, the opponent was the St. Louis Browns, the franchise that eventually moved to Baltimore to become the Orioles.

Update: The Rangers score two more in the fourth, and are now one shy of the record for a double header.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 21, 2007
Another Record
Permalink

YanksFan notes that we should keep our eyes on the number of hits collected by both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter:

Getting back to A-Rod, it's worth noting that Alex has a very outside shot at the Rose record (4,256, in case you've forgotten that touchstone), and a somewhat better (but still slim) hope at the 4,000 hit mark, held only by Rose and Cobb. At age 31, Alex has over 2,200 hits. He averages about 175 a season. Do the math. Another player with a shot at 4,000: Derek Jeter, who at 33 has more than 2,300 hits. Certainly, both men are capable, even likely, to crack the all-time top 10 (Eddie Collins's 3,310 is the target for that goal). Who knows--sometimes even nice guys finish first.

For a long time, Robin Yount had more hits than Pete Rose at the same age, not falling behind until age 37. Again, as in home runs, the big finish seems to be what takes you to a record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:23 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2007
Round Number
Permalink

Barry Bonds hit his 760th career home run tonight. I wonder if he'll pass Speaker's record of 792 doubles. Everyone's spent years impressed with over 700 home runs, but no one's some close to Speaker's 792 doubles.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 08, 2007
New Home Run Record
Permalink

Barry Bonds starts tonight's game and homers in the first off Tim Redding. I wonder with the pressure off, if Barry goes on a tear. And of course, everyone wants to catch one of the homers, since you never know which one is going to be the final new record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Rap on Bonds
Permalink

San Quinn celebrates Barry Bonds' home run record with a music video.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
They Said the Same Thing About Downing
Permalink

Insan at ArmchairGM accuses Mike Bacsik of grooving a pitch to Bonds.

With time running out for Bacsik, in the 5 th inning, Bacsik made the most of the opportunity. On another 3-2 count allowing Bonds to chase the ball, Bascik threw an 84 mph pitch down the center of the plate for Bonds to smash it into the right field stands. Mission accomplished! An 84 mph pitch on a full count is a very weak pitch that is easy to hit, especially for guys like Bonds. What makes it worse is that during his post-game press conference, Bacsik says that he was trying to throw a fastball down and away for a strike. Really Bacsik? Are you really that bad that you ended up throwing an 84 mph pitch right down the strike zone? He stated "I wanted to go after him; I was trying to get him out. I threw a pitch that he really likes to hit and he did it." Well if Bonds really likes to hit those pitches, and you know that for a fact, then why are you trying to strike him out with that pitch? Wouldn't logic dictate that you throw a pitch he doesn't like?

First of all, 84 MPH is a Mike Bacsik fastball. BIS charted 520 Mike Bacsik fastballs, and the average speed is 84.4 MPH with a standard deviation of 1.75 MPH. He was trying to get the ball down and failed. Just like Al Downing:

Downing is offended by people who say, "You must have grooved the pitch."

"They're the people who don't know much about the sport," he said. "I say that's an insult to Hank Aaron. ... It's like saying somebody let Wilt Chamberlain score 100 points on him. He did it because he could; they didn't let him."

But Downing naturally thinks he have could executed better. "When you face great hitters, you wish you had a lot of pitches back," he said. "I didn't get it down as much as I would have liked to. I wanted him to hit a ground ball. Not all home runs are hit off of bad pitches, and not all home runs are mistakes."

I get the feeling Insan is looking for an excuse to discount home run 756.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:45 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Visiting Call
Permalink

Bob Carpenter guests blogs at 3 Girls With Heart on how he called Barry's record breaking home run.

As far as the game and the home run, here was my call: "Three-two pitch to Bonds ... there it goes! This ball is history!" and then I shut up and let our pictures tell the story. It's the beauty of TV; you can make a quick call and then let the pictures take over. Don Sutton and I sat quietly as we watched the stadium erupt in noise, fireworks and streamers, quite a sight. The video on the scoreboard from Hank Aaron was powerful, and I followed up with the comment that, for many baseball fans, Aaron would always be the home run king.

I remember Chris Berman being quiet when Ripken set the consecutive game record, something that must have been difficult for Boomer. But sometimes, you just need to let the moment speak for itself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:56 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
The Story
Permalink

Henry Schulman covered the event for the San Francisco Chronicle. There's lots here, including the tribute from Aaron, a call from the commissioner, the person who retrieved the ball (wearing a Mets jersey, no less) and this bit of trivia:

Bonds also got a visit from Bacsik, who congratulated the new home run king and got an autographed bat in return.

Bacsik's father, also named Mike Bacsik, pitched for Texas and Minnesota from 1975-80. On Aug. 23, 1976, in a Rangers-Brewers game, the elder Bacsik faced Aaron two months after The Hammer hit his final career home run. Aaron singled off him in two at-bats. Thus, the Bacsiks became the only father and son each to face different hitters with 755 home runs.

"If my dad was gracious enough to give up a home run," Bacsik said, "we both would have given up 756."

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Thank the Pirates
Permalink

After the 1989 season, Barry Bonds and the Pirates went to arbitration. Bonds lost the case (and this is from memory) in part because the Pirates claimed Barry didn't drive in enough runs. Barry was a leadoff man at the time. So Barry asked to be moved lower in the order so he could drive in runs.

Barry's fans stuck by him. At 25, they said, he was just entering his prime years. His critics countered by saying he was a clone of his father--a player whose performance never caught up to his potential. In their postseason arbitration meeting, the Pirates argued that Barry had taken a step backward instead of developing his talents. The arbitor agreed, and Barry lost his case. Pittsburgh also let it be known that Barry could be had for the right price. There were no offers.

The Pittsburgh faithful who cried "Wait 'til next year" were screaming "I told you so" in 1990. Everyone in the lineup was healthy again, and a patchwork pitching staff led by Drabek carried the Pirates to the N.L. East flag.

The big story was Barry, who batted in the five-hole behind Bonilla. Spurred on by his arbitration loss, he had a historic year at the plate, becoming the first player ever to hit 30 homers, steal 50 bases, knock in and score 100 runs, and bat .300 in the same season. He raised his average a whopping 150 points with runners in scoring position, led the league with a .565 slugging average, and never went more than two games without getting on base.

If the Pirates had recognized the young man's talents and kept him in the leadoff spot, he might have concentrated on getting on base and stealing rather than hitting home runs. Eventually, his talent would win out and he'd be moved lower in the order, but Barry really seems to respond to challenges and slights. His arbitration loss accelerated his rise, going from good leadoff hitter to slugging