Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 14, 2009
Cooper Unhappy
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Cecil Cooper doesn't like the way the Astros are playing right now.

He is quite frustrated with the Astros' offense this spring, which makes sense considering they are hitting .224 this spring.

"I wasn't happy, totally not happy," Cooper said. "Heck no, I'm not happy with that, not at all. We're hitting .220 (.224) as a team in spring training. Nobody hits .220 in spring training as a team. Come on. Two hundred? Are you kidding me? I don't care if it's spring training. I don't care what it is, .220 is .220."

The team isn't very sure-handed either:

So, the defense hasn't exactly made Cooper happy either. Carlos Lee had one error Friday.

"We can't go one stinking game without making an error," Cooper said, "and they're easy errors."

This, unfortunately, reflects badly on Cooper. This strikes me as an unmotivated team. Ron Washington went through something similar at the start of the regular season in 2008. With luck, Cooper will find his answer before the games start to count.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:04 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
March 04, 2009
Rizzo on the Job
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The Washington Nationals put Mike Rizzo in charge of the team:

Saying that his team needed "a little bit of calming rather than more change right now," Washington Nationals President Stan Kasten has given Mike Rizzo control of day-to-day major league operations for the foreseeable future. Rizzo, an assistant general manager with the club since 2006, "will have primary responsibility for all matters relating to the major league team," Kasten said.

Rizzo did an impressive job of quickly putting a new Dominican Republic operation in place after the firing of Jose Rijo. He now gets a chance to permanently earn the job as GM.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Happier Agent
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It appears Ryan Zimmerman's agent didn't like working with Jim Bowden, either.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 02, 2009
Reading Between the Lines
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Gaslamp Ball sees Sandy Alderson moving to the Cubs:

Alderson didn't have any comment on the rumor, that means it's totally going to happen. If there's one thing I know about Alderson after listening to his interviews is that when he's not answering questions in a really blunt and sometimes condescending manner, then something is afoot.

Having Sandy in Chicago might make a trade for Peavy a bit easier.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 04:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Stan's the Man
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Stan Kasten is acting general manager for the Nationals:

Q: If somebody called right now and wanted to make a trade, a deal, who's in charge?

It has happened. I'm in charge.

No, I've done this before. I'm doing what we need to do to keep the franchise moving forward, and I'm pleased to say that's exactly what has been happening. I met with the staff this morning, made sure everyone understood their roles, made sure all of our tasks were getting covered. Also made sure that everyone understood that adversity invariably creates opportunity, too. And everyone should view this as an occasion for opportunity, an occasion to demonstrate initiative. And to show the same enthusiasm that all of us around the team feel about the team itself; we should feel that way about the front office as well. I do think there are opportunities for renewed initiative. I'd like to see it. It would get rewarded.

It might be a very good time to be low-level staffer in the Nationals front office.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 01:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Talking Arbitration
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Squawking Baseball sits down with John Coppolella, Director of Baseball Administration for the Atlanta Braves. The two talk about the arbitration process, how teams reach their numbers, as well as how the Braves look for talent.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 01, 2009
Bowden Resigns
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Jim Bowden stepped down this morning from his post as general manager of the Washington Nationals:

Bowden said, "It is an emotional decision that saddens me, but one that I feel is in the best interests of the two things I love most -- baseball and the Washington Nationals."

I can't agree more. Let's hope the Nationals bring in someone who knows how to build a team. Fire Jim Bowden decided in favor of gloating:

Then, I thought... screw that! Bodes is toast! Leatherpants is gone! No more ex-Reds! No more media showboating! No more toolsy outfielders who can't play! No more comparing B-level prospects to Tom Seaver and Mike Schmidt! No more Jim Bowden!!!!!!!!!!!!

Woo-hoo!! Happy Day!! Let's Party!!!

Bowden talked a good game but never delivered for the Nats.

Update: The full statement by Bowden is here. Stan Kasten also issued a statement on the matter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2009
Top Scout
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The New York Times profiles Billy Eppler, the Yankees top scout for professional talent. Billy likes to stay in the background, so you may not have heard of him. There seems to be some confusion as to his stance on stats:

Yet Eppler emerged as a supporting player in "The Yankee Years," the book by Joe Torre and Tom Verducci that chronicles Torre's 12 seasons as manager. It is not a flattering portrayal. Eppler is presented as a "stats guru" and symbol of a front office that, to Torre, ignored the heartbeat of the game.

Cashman has not discussed Torre's book, and Eppler would not comment on it specifically. But the notion that statistics guide Eppler is inconsistent with his background and passion.

"Unfortunately in this game, if you're under the age of 35 and you didn't play in the big leagues, it's kind of easy to get classified," said Eppler, who pitched for the University of Connecticut until a shoulder problem ended his career. "And it's fine, I understand, but it's not something I'm real versed in."

Cashman has a statistician, but it is not Eppler. Michael Fishman, 30, is the Yankees' director of quantitative analysis, filtering reports from scouts, trainers and staff -- "plus every statistic pipeline that you have," Cashman said -- through a program the Yankees designed.

"Is Billy a stats guy? No, and I joke with him about it," said Bill Schmidt, the Colorado Rockies' vice president for scouting. "But does he use it as a tool? We all do. Billy is a well-rounded scout, and any well-rounded scout is going to look at stats."

He does understand OBA:

As much as Eppler is a product of the Rockies' executive factory -- which has spawned the future general managers Josh Byrnes, Jon Daniels and Michael Hill -- he is a descendant of Livesey's.

They would talk about tools, Eppler said, and, yes, statistics. One day in 2003, the year Michael Lewis's book "Moneyball" was published, Livesey asked Eppler what he considered a good on-base percentage. Eppler answered .360. To his delight, Livesey agreed.

"From that point forward, if he was in the park, I was sitting next to him," said Eppler, who still relies heavily on Livesey's advice.

The story is well worth the read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 27, 2009
The Cleaner
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The Nationals sent Mike Rizzo to fix things in the Dominican Republic, and he put their players in a new facility in three days:

While in the Dominican, Rizzo visited that facility - which the team had rented from recently fired employee José Rijo. After scouting eight new locations, he settled on a complex in Boca Chica. The 2-1/2 fields at the new site are "gorgeous," Rizzo said, and the eight pitching mounds are "beautiful," and the players will be housed in a "beautiful resort," three to a room, with "air conditioning, cable TV, bathroom, four meals a day, 24-hour security." Washington's prospects were "exuberant" about the relocation, and received a pep talk about making it to the United States and helping the Nationals win a World Series.

"It's something that doesn't compare to anything I've ever done," Rizzo said on Friday. "It was - when we landed today, I said, 'Do you believe what just happened?' "

That success moves him up the ladder as a likely replacement for Jim Bowden.

If they ever make a movie about this, Harvey Keitel should play Rizzo:

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2009
Pain
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Jim Bowden still has his job, but, "They're Just Making Bowden Endure As Much Pain As Possible." The Washington Post summary of the Nationals scandal notes Jose Rijo owned the diamonds used by the club in the DR and rented them for $40,000 a month. There seems to be just a bit of a conflict of interest there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 25, 2009
More Managerial Adjustments
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Like Joe Girardi, Trey Hillman is trying to make adjustments to his managerial style in his second year with the Royals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Getting his Wish
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It continues to look like Fire Jim Bowden will get his wish.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 24, 2009
LaCava on the Doorstep?
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With rumors flying that the Nationals will hire Tony LaCava to replace Jim Bowden, Fire Jim Bowden rounds up all the information he can find on the Blue Jays assistant general manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Loss of Flexibility
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I don't understand why the Rays made this public:

Prinicpal owner Stuart Sternberg did about 20 minutes with area media after getting a look at the new spring facility, touching on a number of subjects.

The biggest news was the he confirmed what executive VP Andrew Friedman suggested during the off-season, that with their payroll creeping above $60-million, they have lost any flexibility to made in-season acquisitions - though he did leave the caveat that "you never say never" and his answer could be "a little different" come June or July.

Even if it's true, why give the Yankees and Red Sox that information? If it comes down to a three-way race for the AL East and the Wild Card between these three teams, the two rich teams will know there's one less bidder out there for any players they want to acquire. That should make their costs a little less.

Of course, given the "never say never" line, maybe it's all an elaborate ruse!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:10 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 23, 2009
Cap and Grab
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Fire Brand of the American League also sees John Henry's call for a salary cap as a money grab by the Red Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 22, 2009
Bowden on the Bubble
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The Nationals Enquirer rounds up the latest news on Jim Bowden, especially this story about how he's part of a federal investigation:

A federal investigation into the skimming of signing bonuses given to baseball prospects from Latin America is looking at Washington Nationals general manager Jim Bowden as far back as 1994, when he was GM of the Cincinnati Reds, according to a baseball executive familiar with the investigation.

Two sources inside baseball say that a long-time scout in Latin America, Jorge Oquendo, 47, is the man who links the FBI's investigations of Bowden and his special assistant Jose Rijo to that of former Chicago White Sox senior director of player personnel David Wilder. Last May the White Sox fired Wilder and two Dominican-based scouts after allegations surfaced that they had pocketed money earmarked for player signing bonuses. Oquendo worked for Wilder in 2006 and 2007, as well as for Bowden with the Reds in 1994 and again with the Reds from 2000 through 2003. Oquendo left Cincinnati in 2005, two years after Bowden was fired. (Bowden became Nationals GM in 2004.)

It's time to get your GM resumes in order. Turning around the Nationals will be a challenge.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Managerial Adjustments
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Peter Abraham looks at how Joe Girardi is trying to improve as a manager of the club house. I thought his take on questioning lineups was interesting:

"Players have to believe in their mind that you want to do what's best for them in their life. I was a player that never asked why I wasn't in the lineup that day. My thought process was that a manager isn't going to put a lineup out there he thinks is going to lose. Some guys are more inquisitive. I understand that not everyone is the same and you have to sometimes step out of your comfort zone to get to a player. I think I understand them better."

Girardi trusted his managers. Then again, he was never a star with the supporting ego. A team wants hitters and pitchers who want to play every day, or at every opportunity. Balancing that with the needs of the team to win is never going to be easy for any skipper.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 21, 2009
Scouting Shift
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The Rays are moving to in-house, video and computer scouting:

The theory, executive vice president Andrew Friedman said, is to provide manager Joe Maddon and staff with more extensive information -- trends, stats, tendencies, etc. -- that can be more easily applied.

With unlimited resources, Friedman said, they might try to do it both ways. But for this season, anyway, they're going to try it the new way.

"We feel like net-net, this will provide us with the best information, up-to-date information and thorough information in a cost-effective way," he said.

If the Rays don't do well this year, the media will pillory them for the change.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fraud fallout
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Jose Rijo becomes the first Nationals front office casualty of the fraud scandal:

Jose Rijo, the Washington Nationals front office member linked most closely to the fraudulent signing of a Dominican prospect, has taken a leave of absence from the team.

Rijo, who has worked for the team since 2005 as a special assistant to the general manager, remains a team employee, but there is no timetable for his return.

My money is on this leave becomes permanent at some point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 20, 2009
Go With the Flow
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Redleg Nation presents the Dusty Baker hitting flow chart.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Surviving the Recession
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Fortune Magazine looks at how sports are being hurt by the downturn. Professor Zimbalist thinks teams won't be as recession proof as in previous bad times:

Historically, teams haven't had to go to such lengths because the bond between team and town was so strong. The National Basketball Association grew its attendance during both the 1973-74 and 1980-81 recessions. And Major League Baseball enjoyed record attendance in the summer of 1983, when the U.S. unemployment rate was 10%. "The old adage is that people need distractions when times are tough," says sports economist Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College. "So they go to ball games."

Nevertheless, Zimbalist is one of many sports-business experts who think this recession will be different. Sports leagues today are more dependent on economically vulnerable sources of revenue such as corporate sponsorships, luxury suites, and other premium seating. Even if attendance doesn't nosedive, teams could still find themselves swimming in red ink.

Not even pro sports' richest franchise, the Yankees, seems immune. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) - once baseball's biggest corporate sponsor - has canceled its sponsorship deal with the team. And even before superstar third baseman Alex Rodriguez was caught up in a steroid scandal, the Yanks were having trouble selling premium seats in their new stadium - so much so that they hired a Manhattan realty firm to market unsold club seats and luxury boxes.

The article, however, holds up the Arizona Diamondbacks as a team that is going the extra yard to keep its fans:

And yet last summer, with the economy tanking and her income shrinking, Smiley began thinking seriously about giving up her beloved seats. The bear market had halved her IRA, and spending $5,000 a year on baseball tickets was a luxury Smiley was no longer sure she could afford.

Torn, Smiley sent D-backs CEO Derrick Hall an e-mail asking him if he could help. Five minutes later the phone rang, and shockingly, it was Hall was on the other end. "Basically, he said that they'd do whatever they could to keep me as a season ticket holder," says Smiley. "I was surprised." The eventual solution: The D-backs arranged for Smiley to share season tickets with someone else in her section. The D-backs kept a customer happy while also managing to preserve a few thousand dollars in revenue. "They did a nice thing," Smiley says.

It's probably more important than ever to win. Losing gives people a good excuse not to spend money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 18, 2009
Rijo to Roll?
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After reading the latest from Chico Harlan, my guess is that Jose Rijo is not long for the Nationals organization:

To sign Gonzalez, the Nationals depended on another employee, Jose Rijo, the link between their scouting department and the Dominican streets. Since January 2005, Rijo has served as a special assistant in the Washington front office, operating the team's player development facility in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic.

Rijo fostered a relationship with Gonzalez for at least two years before the signing. To get close with Gonzalez, though, he dealt with Gonzalez's buscone, a street agent named Basilio Vizcaino, who just so happened to be Rijo's childhood friend. During periods before he turned pro, Gonzalez even stayed with Vizcaino, hoping to improve his living conditions and his profile as a prospect. There was never a question about how Gonzalez should repay his debt: Once he earned a signing bonus, Vizcaino would keep 20 percent.

We'll see how this plays out, if Rijo was fooled about this kid's age for two years, there's something wrong. There's a big difference going from 14 to 16 than 18 to 20.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Torre to Retire
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Jon Weisman gives us his thoughts on Joe Torre retiring after the 2010 season. However, after reading the original article, Torre didn't seem to definite. It's one thing to talk about retirement in the future, it's another to actually make the decision, especially if you're still winning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Kasten on the Deception
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Stan Kasten talks about the Nationals (and MLB) being taken by the fake Esmailyn Gonzalez.

You know, to say I'm disappointed doesn't begin to describe how I feel. I'm angry. I am very angry. We've been defrauded, and make no mistake -- this wasn't a college kid with a fake ID that came in and did this. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud with a lot more to this story, and we are going to get to the bottom of it. There were many, many people involved in this premeditated fraud.

Kasten later noted that these frauds do get signed, but MLB usually catches them before the contract becomes final. We'll see how the story goes, but I wonder if Jim Bowden is on the hot seat now?

Update: Fire Jim Bowden notes Jose Rijo could use A-Rod's crisis management team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Getting the Math Right
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The early lead on the Rays new slogan is:

'09 > '08

At some point, I hope Maddon works in the ≈.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Awaiting the Slogan
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Joe Maddon gave his players their motivational slogan for 2009, and will tell the press later today. I wonder if it will include more bad math? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 17, 2009
A Chance to Keep Fishing
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Fredi Gonzalez received a two-year extension from the Florida Marlins. Barring a firing, that should keep him in Miami through 2011.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Frank Cashman
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Brian Cashman make a frank statement about Alex Rodriguez after the news conference:

"I don't think Alex is very good at communicating, to be quite honest."

Right. That's the difference between Jeter and Alex. Jeter can get up in front of 54,000 people after the last game at Yankee Stadium and give an unrehearsed speech that hits all the right notes. Alex can't write one down and make it sound sincere.

Do give the man a bit of credit, however. Some superstars completely shut out the media. Alex at least tries to speak with them, although he might be better off if he just kept quiet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 16, 2009
Two Jobs
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Don Wakamatsu not only has to prepare the Mariners for baseball, but he's also trying to improve the culture of his clubhouse:

Don Wakamatsu knew before he took the job as Seattle's manager that this 101-loss team's chemistry was toxic. It's been polluted by issues with and jealousies of Suzuki, Seattle's All-Star and Gold Glove outfielder and most marketable asset. The first-time manager is trying to change that environment by fostering trust through one-on-one meetings with every player that go beyond just baseball.

"I did my homework. I talked to several players from last year," Wakamatsu said Monday. "I am fully aware of the rumblings, or people's perception of it.

"I want to focus on creating that environment where maybe we bring the favoritism a little bit close to equality."

Good luck to him. Of course, the best thing he can do is get the team winning again. It's easier to tolerate jerks when your team is in contention. We didn't hear about these problems two years ago when the Mariners were over .500.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 11, 2009
Washington Reds
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Fire Jim Bowden prints the list.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 10, 2009
Tolerant Torre
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Dodger Thoughts notes Joe Torre's line on gay ballplayers during his Larry King interview:

Ventura, Calif., Viewer: Billy Bean, after he retired, he announced he was gay. Do you foresee a time in the future when an active player can safely announce he's gay and if he did, what effect would that have on Major League Baseball?

Joe Torre: Well that's a great question, I don't know. But I just hope that an active player, if that's the case, can feel free to do that. That's all I can say. But I don't know. Obviously, you have 25 players in the clubhouse, and, you know, it's going to be tough for everybody to feel as maybe I do. But I'd like to believe our country is turning in that direction.

Larry King: You'd have no problem?

Torre: I'd have no problem.

Good for Joe. I'd like to see more managers and ballplayers come forward and say this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
February 08, 2009
Giant Ideas
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The Giants would rather wait until the trade deadline to get a big bat than sign Manny Ramirez, or one of the other outfield bats now. They're depending on a weak division, but if the Dodgers do sign Ramirez, Los Angeles might run away with things. Signing Manny now prevents the Dodgers from that runaway.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
February 07, 2009
Chump Change
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Fire Jim Bowden criticizes the Nationals for taking a player to arbitration over a very small amount of money:

In Hill's case, the last thing we need is for him to enter the year with damaged confidence. He's always been known as a thoughtful guy who tends to beat himself up over every little thing. And I know he's been frustrating for fans, but just think what it's like for him going through surgery after surgery and rehab after rehab. Ultimately, Hill's still a pretty talented guy, with a power sinker that could make him a solid #3 or maybe even a 2. It's just not worth messing with his head or damaging your relationship with him over such chump change.

I really wonder if the amount of money spent on the hearing is really worth it. It must be 10s of thousands of dollars and time wasted by your statistical staff that could be used evaluating players for the future. Worse, this is the second year in a row the Nationals took a low difference player all the way through the process.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 01, 2009
Prompt Promotions
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Derrick Goold pens an excellent article on the Cardinals propensity to promote minor league players quickly. The Cardinals understand a fundamental truth:

"When you look at the age at which the best players in baseball reach the big leagues, it's younger than most people think," Luhnow said. "The Scott Rolens, the Jim Edmondses, the Yadier Molinas -- all of those players -- they make it to the big leagues at 21, 22 or 23. So, that has to factor into it a bit. What it means more importantly is we're drafting younger players, we're developing them ourselves. And, we're pushing them aggressively through the system."

"Young is good," Luhnow continued. "There is no doubt. (Players) who make it in their late 20s are often serviceable guys, a bench guy, a late bloomer, but stars tend to make it young. ... We differentiate ourselves as a system if we're producing stars at the big-league level -- average to above-average performers, and those guys tend to be younger guys when they get here."

My only worry here is that they mistake success in a small sample size for talent. However, I agree that if a player has nothing to prove at his current level, he should move up. Younger players are just as good as older players, and come at a much lower cost.

This team won't make the mistake the Red Sox made with Wade Boggs and the Mariners made with Edgar Martinez.

Correction: Fixed link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 29, 2009
Stupid Clauses
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I agree with this post 100%.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 28, 2009
Long Term Fish
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Hanley Ramirez is the only Marlin getting a long term contract for a while. FishStripes questions the placement of blame for this, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 21, 2009
Expense or Investment
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John Brattain criticizes the Toronto Blue Jays for being Selig loyalists:

To be a Selig loyalist one must view players as an expense (something to keep to a minimum) rather than an investment (a vehicle that can be used to increase profits). Right now, the Jays' current payroll is based (they say) on projected revenue. However, little thought is given to how wise expenditure might improve that projection.

The reason for that is because an expenditure is viewed as just that--an expense, a loss; it is not viewed as something that might bring a return.

If teams want fans to come out, they need to win. Sometimes, that means spending more money than a team takes in. It worked for the Jays in the early 1990s. No reason it can't work again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 19, 2009
Sports Business Conference
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Registration is open to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. I've attended the conference the last two years and enjoyed it each time. I hope to see you there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 17, 2009
Blasting Baltimore
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Leo Mazzone says he made a mistake leaving the Braves, and takes down the Orioles while he's at it:

To hear Mazzone tell it, his firing was a relief. "Once I got there and saw how they operated compared to the Braves, I knew I made a mistake the first week of spring training," he said, before chuckling and adding, "I said to myself, 'You know what? I done messed up.'

"The lack of organization. The lack of discipline. The lack of overall professionalism. I was shocked, and I couldn't believe it."

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Making Money
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The Twins seemed to time the opening of their new stadium correctly:

With the lure of seats for the first year at Target Field, Minnesota Twins fans are on pace for a franchise record for season tickets in 2009.

Combine the new stadium with a successful season in 2008, and fans are buying tickets even in a recession. Maybe they should use the extra money to buy one of the remaining quality hitters to serve as their designated hitter. Adam Dunn might fit very well between Mauer and Morneau.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
January 12, 2009
Ten-Year Mike
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Mike Scioscia gets a ten-year extension from the Angels.

"It's a significant commitment from myself, (Angels owner) Arte Moreno and (general manager) Tony Reagins," Scioscia said Monday. "I think it reflects on their confidence that we're moving in the right direction and will continue to move in the right direction until we get back to the World Series and win a championship. That's our goal."

The Angels announced last Monday that the parties agreed in principle on a multiyear extension. Previously, Scioscia was under contract through next season with a club option for 2010 for about $2 million per season. Reagins would only say the extension "goes well beyond" 2010.

I'm all for long-term contracts in general, but a team's view of their manager can change quickly. Look what happened to Joe Torre in New York. Four years seems enough for any manager given the turn over. Still, Mike and that organization have been in sync for quite some time, and it's nice to see his success rewarded.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 11, 2009
Office Contraction
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Gaslamp Ball agrees that Sandy Alderson's tenure with the Padres will be short if Jeff Moorad buys the team:

There are too many people in charge in the Padres front office. If and when Moorad arrives, there will be at least one more person in charge. A business does not operate well that way. Empowering employees is one thing. Having 10 different bosses is Office Space.

That statement leads me to belief others will go along with Alderson. The DBacks just cut staff, and the Padres will likely follow suit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 08, 2009
Brewers Upturn
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It appears the Brewers are seeing revenue growth despite the down economy:

The Brewers announced a presenting sponsorship agreement with Potawatomi Bingo Casino on Thursday, part of the team's expected double-digit percentage gain in sponsorship revenue. And despite the economy, other areas of the Brewers' business are looking up too.

"We are very sensitive to what's going on, and we're very careful in what we're looking at," said Rick Schlesinger, the Brewers' executive vice president for business operations. "But I will tell you that ticket sales, suite sales, sponsorship -- we're seeing growth in all areas."

Winning gets fans interested, and the advertisers want to capture those eyeballs. Maybe they could have offered Sabathia $25 million for five years and kept him. Then they'd have a better chance of keeping this winning way alive. I wonder if they'll try to resign Ben Sheets at this point?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 07, 2009
Tippett Point
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Congratulations to Tom Tippett, the new Director, Baseball Information Services, for the Red Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Acta Okay
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Manny Acta doesn't seem to be too worried about his job security. I would suggest that because Manny is a good manager, if the Nationals fire him he'll land a plum job somewhere else. If I were in his position, I'd almost want the Nationals not to extend my contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:47 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
January 06, 2009
Scioscia Extended
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Mike Scioscia received a long term contract extension from the Angels. He'll be under contract through 2014. No word if there is a no-squeeze clause in the document. :-)

This is a good move by the Angels. I like teams that reward success, and Mike certainly helped turn LAnaheim into perennial contenders. He gets the most out of his pitchers, and "put the ball in play" philosophy on offense works for this group of players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 05, 2009
Faster Guillen
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South Side Sox looks at how and why Ozzie Guillen developed a fast hook for his starting pitchers in 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 04, 2009
Seattle Tango
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Tom Tango will be consulting for the Mariners this year. Excellent news for Seattle fans. Congratulations to Tom!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 02, 2009
Running out of Patience
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Nick and Nick are running out of patience with Twins general manager Bill Smith:

I've gone out of my way to go easy on Bill Smith, but even I'm starting to lose patience. As bad as his trades and free agent signings from last winter are looking, and as stunning as his inability to upgrade the bullpen over the course of the 2008 season was, and now as pathetic as his display on the DeRosa bidding war (if we can even call it that -- it certainly doesn't seem like the Twins made much of an effort here) has been, Smith is running out of slack.

Coming within a game of making the playoffs earns a GM slack, especially after trading away the best pitcher in baseball. The team could use another big bat in the lineup, and there are a few of those still available via free agency.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 27, 2008
Change of Process
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U.S.S Mariner compares Bill Bavasi and Jack Zduriencik in terms of process.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 26, 2008
Changing the Tax
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East Coast Bias suggests a new luxury tax scheme. The element I like is that the teams receiving aids must put it back into salaries. The author suggests this is done by signing free agents, but I would be happy to see the payroll of the team rise by the amount of the tax received.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Why Not Spend?
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Matthew Cerrone asks, why don't the Mets spend like the Yankees?

I understand why they had to spend less 10 years ago. But, now the Mets also have a successful regional sports network, they also have a new stadium, they also play in New York City, and also charge a fortune for tickets and hot dogs.

So, what is it? What's the difference? Is it a lack of capital, is it outside forces we are unaware of, is it the team's minority owners, is it personal preference?

The thing is, I'm fine with any answer, because it's their answer, their money and their decision. I won't argue against it, judge or criticize it, because what do i know.

However, as a fan, as a customer, who spends a ton of time and money helping to support their business, spending money on tickets and TV time, popcorn, pretzels and parking, only to drive myself crazy every fall, I believe you and I have earned some sort of response.

The Yankees are taking advantage of being a rich team in a down market to stock up on very good players. However, there is a potential downside. If the economic situation gets so bad that the stadium attendance goes down, and advertising on YES goes down, the Yankees might find themselves in a situation in which they are bleeding money. The probability of that happening may not be that high, but I'm guessing it's more like 10 or 20% than 1%. The Yankees are taking a gamble, probably to get the Boss one more championship before he dies. It's a good gamble, but I can see where lots of teams in this environment don't want to be caught three years down the road with a bloated payroll and reduced revenue.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
December 24, 2008
Salary Fun
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Maury Brown compares the salaries of the Yankees three signings to the salaries of some teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
December 22, 2008
The Next Wave
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Squawking Baseball notes that the next innovations in baseball earnings are going to need to come from a new crop of CEOs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 20, 2008
It's not Just Freezing in New England
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No new jobs at MLB.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 18, 2008
One Less Agent on Speed Dial
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Via Lone Star Ball, the Braves are furious with Arn Tellem's agency:

"Having been in this business for 40-some years, I've never seen anybody treated like that," Schuerholz said. "The Atlanta Braves will no longer do business with that company -- ever. I told [agent] Arn Tellem that we can't trust them to be honest and forthright. I told him that in all my years, I've never seen any [agency] act in such a despicable manner.

"It was disgusting and unprofessional. We're a proud organization, and we won't allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs, and we'll deal with the other hundred agents."

Tellem counters that they did everything by the book. However:

Schuerholz said he phoned Tellem on Wednesday night.

"I expressed my great disappointment to him," he said. "I watched as Frank shared with me the circumstances of his negotiations with Furcal -- negotiations to the point where we increased our offer, and he [Kinzer] then asked for a signed term sheet to be sent over. We never got that signed term sheet faxed back to us, and we later found out why -- because they took that offer and shopped it."

I wonder if other clubs will back away from Tellem now. I suspect they will at least be very careful in future negotiations with his agency.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 14, 2008
Buying Wins
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I thought Dave Dombrowski was smarter than this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:36 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Outside Financial Troubles
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Squaking Baseball looks at how NASCAR troubles might hurt the Red Sox, while Michael Schmidt examines Fred Wilpon's finances to see if the Madoff fraud might impact the Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 13, 2008
Telecommuting
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The Mariners move their advance scouting operation to their home office.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Blasting Beane
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Grover at Athletics Nation blasts Billy Beane for not signing Rafael Furcal when he had the chance:

Enough with the "buts", if there's one thing the A's have right now is the financial flexibility to spend a little more on Furcal if they have to. If there's one thing the A's don't have is a quality SS, or even anyone who projects to be an average SS in the next few years. Don't blame me for that, blame the guy who traded Haren, Blanton, Harden and Gaudin and didn't get one damn SS prospect back in the exchange. Quite simply, the A's need Rafael Furcal because he's the best free agent SS on the market this year and next and the A's are in a position to add talent through monetary means and not lose talent via trade. The quicker the A's sign Furcal the better their chance to sign Randy Johnson. If Beane can add those two talents to his roster it could mean 4-5 extra wins for Oakland in the 2009 season. That would give them a strong chance to win the division and that could lead to a better chance at retaining Matt Holliday in 2010 and beyond. I'm not saying that signing Furcal guarantees the A's sign Johnson, win the AL West crown and keep Holliday beyond 2009 but he'd go a long way towards making all those things happen.

I get it. Beane's trying to save a couple bucks on Furcal.

But at what cost to the A's?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 11, 2008
Front Office Silence
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Rays index on the Rays front office:

The Rays have the quietest front office in baseball. Even though the Rays were talking with the Tigers for three days, we never heard a peep. Is that by design? Maybe. Most of the Rays trades seem to come from out of left field (so to speak). Did we hear anything before the Gross trade or the Willy Aybar trade or the Chad Bradford trade?

Do the Rays make it a point to keep everything under wraps as tightly as possible? Or is the front office still young enough, and the Rays still a relatively new player, that the national media has yet to establish connections within the front office?

One thing that is becoming very clear. No matter who we, as fans, think the Rays are targeting, most of the time they will get somebody we were not even thinking about. We don't know about the rest of you, but we love it.

I just think the media get less readership/viewership/hits talking about the Rays than talking about the more famous teams. If the Rays continue to win, however, that will change.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
December 10, 2008
Johnson at the Helm
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Davey Johnson gets to skipper the United States WBC team. Davey's my favorite manager of all time so I'm always happy to get a chance to see him manage again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 09, 2008
Rewarding Success
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The Phillies rewarded Charlie Manuel's success with an extension through 2011. Since the start of the 2005 season, when Manuel took the helm, the Phillies are 354-294, a .546 winning percentage. That's fifth best in baseball and second in the National League, three games behind the Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 08, 2008
Mo' Money
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The Twins are looking to increase payroll in 2009:

"We have finalized the budget for 2009, and we believe that the budget allows us some flexibility to improve our baseball team," Twins President Dave St. Peter said.

The Twins had a payroll of roughly $56 million last season, down from $71 million in 2007. Using rough estimates for arbitration-eligible players and players with fewer than three years of major league experience, the Twins already are looking at a 2009 payroll over $60 million. Their interest in signing free agent Casey Blake shows a willingness to push the payroll toward what it was in 2007.

Good. The team came very close to the playoffs in 2008. They should spend some money to push themselves to the next level. After all, they're not paying Johan Santana $20 million a year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Summing up Cashman
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Kat O'Brien sums up the Yankees news of the day. On Sabathia:

Interestingly, Cashman said he had never spoken to Sabathia before last night. Cashman called it an informative meeting, for Sabathia in particular.

Maybe Brian can convince Milliliter to play in the Big Apple.

Update: He'll have to, as CC wants to play in Los Angeles:

According to Los Angeles general manager Ned Colletti, he bumped into Sabathia on Sunday at the Bellagio Hotel, where baseball's Winter Meetings are being held, and he told him that he wants to be a Dodger.

Update: The Yankees also met with Ben Sheets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 05, 2008
Dangerous GM
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Frank Wren nearly makes JC Bradbury crash his car!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 04, 2008
Cash and Cashman
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Scott Boras and Brian Cashman met today to discuss Broas's free agents. This was interesting:

"They will go all offense," a baseball official predicted of the Yankees if they fail to land two of the top three free agent pitchers.

That could mean bringing switch-hitting Teixeira to play first base or signing Ramirez to play the outfield or DH. Both are expected to command in excess of $20 million a year.

Maybe they should go all offense anyway. Offensive players tend to be a better bet than pitchers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
GM Comparison
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Lookout Landing compares Bavasi and Zduriencik and likes the result.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 03, 2008
Cutting Staff
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First the Diamondbacks reduced the size of their front office, now the Blue Jays are cutting their sales staff:

Rogers Communications, owner of the Toronto Blue Jays, announced plans Tuesday to lay off an unspecified number of employees in its media division, with about a third of those losses coming from the baseball team's sales staff.

A team employee familiar with the cuts said the number of jobs to be eliminated was "probably in the 30s." The spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the layoffs.

The Blue Jays are hit particularly hard due to the drop in the Canadian dollar.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 01, 2008
Arbitration Decision Day
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Today (Monday) is the day teams decide which free agent players get offered arbitration. Some decisions are fairly easy, as Sox Machine describes. The toughest ones are for a veteran player who is likely to make less if he goes to free agency, but will still deliver a draft pick if another team signs him. That's the Andy Pettitte situation right now. In fact, it also might be the Abreu and Giambi situations as well. The Angels are in a similar situation, but as Halos Heaven points out having arbitration accepted by any of those players won't hurt the club much.

I wonder, in what may be a down year for free agents due to the economy, if we see more accept arbitration this season. Most would make at least what they made in 2008, probably more. It would give them a year to see how things go, and maybe make a killing next winter.

Of course, it would also increase the number of free agents available for 2010, and increased supply tends to put a damper on salaries paid to these players as well. There's a lot of strategy to think about for both sides this off season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 28, 2008
Pirates Philosophy
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Neal Huntington speaks on the way the Pirates are approaching the off-season:

"We are not throwing 2009 to the wind and saying, 'Well, we'll win again sometime in the future.' We know we need to win, and sooner rather than later, and we're going to show up, work hard, prepare, teach and go out to win every game" Huntington said. "But, if we can trade a veteran player and it brings us 12-18 years of control instead of one or two, and we don't take that large of a step backward, that's just good business."

And that is why, according to multiple sources, no fewer than of the Pirates' five veterans -- shortstop Jack Wilson, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, first baseman Adam LaRoche, reliever John Grabow and catcher Ronny Paulino -- already have been part of trade talks, to some degree or other.

To me, this is an approach to keep payroll low. I'd rather see the Pirates pick their weak link position and improve it as much as possible. Looking at the team stats by position, they can pick third base, shortstop or second base as their area of improvement for this season. Even just bringing one of those position above league average will help them score more runs. Given that the Pirates have such a log way to go, addressing two of those is probably needed. Just trading veterans to get more years of control, however, is not the way to build a winner unless the players acquired are good, too. Jack Wilson isn't going to bring much.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 25, 2008
Talking Stats
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Squawking Baseball posts an interview with Manny Acta, who is not afraid to talk sabermetrics:

SB: You're obviously a very statistically-inclined manager. How do you think that gives you an advantage over managers that aren't as progressive? MA: I want to win. More than being statistically-inclined, I'm very open minded. If someone can show me things that I didn't already know, I am willing to change. I'm not stubborn. If the statistical evidence shows I'm wrong, and it helps me and my team win baseball games, then I would be a fool not to listen.

SB: Looking back, have there been any decisions that you made that perhaps you wouldn't have if you had not been so aware of sabermetrics?
MA: I would have bunted less when I managed in the minors. I still would have had the minor leaguers run, because winning isn't the most important thing down there, and most players have the green light to work on their baserunning skills.

I hope the Nationals someday get Manny talent he can exploit. He seems like the kind of manager I'd like to put in charge of my team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Peterson on the Way?
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Dan Wakamatsu let go two of the Mariners coaches, including pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. That appears to pave the way for Seattle to hire former Atheltics and Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 24, 2008
URL Change
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In anticipation of an eventual move to a new stadium and the name changing to the Miami Marlins, you can now reach the Marlins web site at marlins.com, not floridamarlins.com. Adjust your bookmarks!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 22, 2008
Taking the Raines
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The Newark Bears named Tim Raines manager. This will mean a trip to Bridgeport to see the Bears play the Bluefish.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 20, 2008
Bullpen Changes
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Waiting for Next Year was surprised by the choice of Chuck Hernandez as the Indians bullpen coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 18, 2008
Background Checks
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Jack Zduriencik probably won't announce his pick for the new Seattle manager until tomorrow:

"What I did today and plan to do [Tuesday]," he said, "is continue to touch base with dotting i's and crossing t's, in terms of background and history, so there are no surprises in the final selection."

What he is trying to avoid, no doubt, is any semblance of the Wally Backman debacle in Arizona after the 2004 season. Hired by the Diamondbacks on Nov. 1, Backman was fired on Nov. 5 after revelations of legal and financial problems surfaced.

It's also a good idea from a publicity standpoint. People will be focused on the AL MVP vote today, but tomorrow the Mariners should get all the attention.

Update: Don Wakamatsu appears to have the inside track.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2008
Quote of the Day
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Doug Melvin doesn't understand the Yankees bid for CC Sabathia:

"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"

Because, Doug, if they offered $110 million you might bid again. This way, they drive out all of the teams that can't afford $140 million, and see who's left. This leaves the Yankees with a lot less work to do. Since Sabathia is probably worth around $27 million a year, or $162 million over six years, the Yankees just took the bidding up to a decent level where it will move along faster.

Melvin should bid $150 million for six years. In all likelihood, the Yankees will top that. So Doug gets to look like a hero to the Milwaukee fans for being willing to spend top dollar on Sabathia without shelling out any money, plus he forces the Yankees to bid higher.

If all the other teams are scared away by New York's offer, the Yankees get Sabathia cheap. If they take part in incremental bidding, however, there's a chance another team breaks it's limit on CC. If someone bid $125 million, then $135 million, maybe they feel they've invested so much time in trying to obtain Sabathia's services that they are willing to break their $140 million limit and go to $145 or $150 million. If, however, that limit is met with the first bid, there's no reason to even get started. So by trying to drive out all the other bidders, the Yankees might actually save money over using Melvin's rational strategy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 15, 2008
Expanding Stats
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The Mariners are adding a statistics department:

The department will fall under the auspices of Tony Blengino, a longtime baseball stats analyst and a special assistant to new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. Details of the department's mandate and size are still to be worked out, but the move could vault the Mariners from their perceived Stone Age approach to stats to one in which they're seen as one of the game's more progressive franchises.

"We want to take all the information at our disposal and combine it with our scouting," Blengino said Friday.

Good for them. They've used Matt Olkin as a consultant, and it's not clear if that relationship will continue. If you're looking for a job in this area, it's a good time to send your resume to the Mariners!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 14, 2008
Fire Sale Questions
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Ducksnorts offers an FAQ on the Padres fire sale.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 13, 2008
Rating Managers
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R.J. Anderson makes a nice attempt at putting a number on managerial choices. It might make Yankees fans feel a bit better about letting Joe Torre go in favor of Joe Girardi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Growing the Garden
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The Twins extended Ron Gardenhire's contract two years today. Unless something goes wrong, he'll be managing when Minnesota opens their new ballpark in 2010.

The 51-year-old Gardenhire, who was runner-up to Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon in the AL Manager of the Year voting, took over as Twins skipper before the 2002 season. He has led the team to four AL Central titles in his first seven years, posting winning records in six of those seven campaigns.

Only Tom Kelly, with 1,140 victories, has more wins than Gardenhire with the Twins.

It's good to see success rewarded. Ron's also one of the longest tenured managers right now, only trailing Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Mike Scioscia.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 12, 2008
With a Name Like Padres, You'd Think They'd Have Grace
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Gaslamp Ball laments the Padres lack of grace in getting rid of players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 10, 2008
Padres Promotions
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The San Diego Padres promoted three front office personnel:

Winfield was Vice President, so I guess being made Executive Vice President/Senior Adviser is a promotion. Paul DePodesta was Special Assistant of Baseball Operations and Executive Vice President sounds a little more official, but from what I can tell, everybody will be basically doing the same thing.

Yes, I've gotten promotions like that in the past. Same job, same pay different title.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Blood
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Given this list of managerial candidates, the Seattle Mariners appear to be looking for new blood, rather than someone tried and true.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 08, 2008
Back to the Bench
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The Brewers hire Willie Randolph as their bench coach. It's not managing, but it's close. Randolph may turn out to a person who is better off coaching than managing. Given how things went down with the Mets, he might not have the people skills for the top job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:27 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Rewarding Loyalty
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After 17 seasons as the bullpen coach, Bill Castro takes over as the Brewers pitching coach. Why now? In all the previous times the team had a chance to make Castro the pitching coach, why didn't they? There was a rumor that Rick Peterson would be up for the job, but obviously the team decided to stay in house. It's nice to see Castro's loyalty to the team finally rewarded.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 06, 2008
DePodesta Tidbit
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Paul DePodesta writes a short post about the GM meetings, including this teaser:

We had many discussions over the course of the past four days at the GM's meetings, some of which have been productive and even unexpected. At this point, however, there is nothing to report.

Unexpected. Maybe some team that's under the radar is looking to acquire Peavy. Maybe another team offered a very creative deal that helps both sides now. We'll see if anything unexpected some out of San Diego soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Modeling the Cardinals
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Joe Strauss gives us an idea of how the Cardinals think about developing their roster:

For several hours, Mozeliak, assistant general manager John Abbamondi and vice president of scouting and player development Jeff Luhnow briefed manager Tony La Russa, who traveled back and forth from his Bay Area home. The presentation included numerous possibilities listing players from within the organization as well as free-agent and trade targets.

Some of the models did not include Ludwick or Ankiel.

"We have a good core of outfielders. But we also have some needs," La Russa said. "I think they're doing it exactly right. You try to look at your priorities and how you would fill them. You don't want to make any deal ... but with free agency you have to get involved with money and years. There's no free lunch."

Wary of perceptions that he is shopping Ludwick and Ankiel, Mozeliak added, "Not to be coy, but it's probably one of 100 variables that are factoring into this."

It looks like communications in the Cardinals hierarchy are very open and complete. This led to them putting a surprisingly good team on the field this year. We'll see if they can do it again in 2009.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 05, 2008
Unhappy Groundskeeper
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A fired Fenway groundskeeper writes an open letter to Larry Lucchino:

It isn't about food, or getting yelled at for the littlest things. It's about the lack of respect that the Red Sox have for some of its "unimportant" workers. I hope this level of treatment is limited to the grounds crew; I would hate to think it permeates more of the organization and is indicative of an overall cultural program. I would hate that if it were true.

I think that you and senior management need to take a hard look at the treatment of its grounds crew. An organization is only as stable as its bottom rung, and things aren't working too well for you on the bottom rung right now.

I have no idea if his story is true or not. We'll see if the Red Sox respond.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 04, 2008
Second Interviews
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It turns out Jack Zduriencik already interviewed a number of managerial candidates:

Melvin's top assistant at the time was Jack Zduriencik. Randolph later told confidantes that he knew Zduriencik was up for the Mariners general manager's job and that he might be, in essence, interviewing for two jobs at the same time.

Zduriencik eventually landed in Seattle. Monday at the general managers' meetings, he talked about the Randolph scenario without specifically mentioning Randolph.

"I sat in on some interviews Melvin had in Milwaukee," Zduriencik said. "And I was privy to what went on in some other interviews I didn't sit in on.

"So when I'm going through the interviews, for some it will be like a second interview."

That should make the managerial hiring process easier, since Zduriencik should already have a good idea who he likes.

Update: Included link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Theo
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Theo Epstein inked a contract extension:

Terms of the deal weren't disclosed, but Epstein told the Boston Globe on the first day of the annual GM meetings that he signed the deal "a while back." Terms of the contract weren't released.

Good thing the Red Sox didn't make the same mistake twice and let Theo twist in the wind this time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 03, 2008
Payroll Problems
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It looks like the Tigers don't have much room to play with the payroll:

Dombrowski also revealed that the 2009 payroll would not see "a significant difference" from 2008. With the team already committed to spending a little over $100 million on 11 players, that means the Tigers have about $25 million left to find a shortstop, a catcher, resign Justin Verlander, bolster the bullpen and rotation, and fill in the rest of the spots with league-minimum players under club control (like Matt Joyce).
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Plans
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Peter Abraham prints the latest on the Yankees hot stove plans:

The Yankees are out to acquire two starters. "We won't be one and done," Cashman said. The plan is to have a rotation of New Guy 1, New Guy 2, Wang, Chamberlain and then Pettitte/Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves/assorted bums.

This seems to imply that they see Wang as their third starter. I take that to mean they'll be going after pitchers on the talent level of Sabathia and Dempster. Do you want both Lowe and Wang in a rotation, or do you want more strike out pitchers? Lots of strike outs covers for a poor defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Huge Deal for Maddux
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The Texas Rangers made Mike Maddux an offer he couldn't refuse:

Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last night that Texas has "overwhelmed [Maddux] with a huge deal" that dwarfed the multi-year contract the Brewers had offered him, and that Maddux couldn't afford to turn the Rangers down. No terms were even guessed at in the story, but Melvin said "he's probably going to be one of the top-paid pitching coaches" in baseball.

Why was Mike offered such a lucrative contract? He's a known quantity to the Rangers:

The younger* brother of future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, Mike pitched the final game of his 15-year big league career on July 4, 2000, pitching the sixth and seventh innings of a 10-4 Astros loss to Arizona (for whom rookie Vicente Padilla pitched the eighth). Houston released him the next day. He retired a week after that.

And then came a move that probably led to this day. Maddux had barely cleared his Houston locker out when he agreed to take a job as the pitching coach for the organization's AA affiliate, the Round Rock Express.

Which was owned by Nolan Ryan.

And managed by Jackie Moore.

*This is a mistake. Mike Maddux is older than Greg.

The story also points out a number of Rangers pitchers who moved to Milwaukee and florished.

I assume that Maddux is on board with Ryan's vision of how to rework the Rangers pitchers from the ground up. Certainly, the use of CC Sabathia in Milwaukee shows that Mike isn't married to pitch counts.

The Texas Rangers might end up being a test bed for different ideas in how pitchers are developed and used. I don't know if Nolan Ryan is correct. Baseball strategy, both on the field and in player recruitment and development evolves over time, and mostly in the right direction. Ryan is betting that the evolution of how pitchers are used went wrong at some point. If Nolan is right, will he be able to pull the rest of the majors back to his way of doing things?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 02, 2008
GM Meetings
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The general managers start meeting Monday, and Peter Abraham is there to bring you all the action.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Back to the Bench
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Dale Sveum will stay with the Brewers as the hitting coach. I'm surprised by this. I would think Ken Macha wouldn't want his replacement sitting that close by.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Gain and a Loss
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Via Balls, Sticks and Stuff, the Phillies are set to name Ruben Amaro, Jr. their new general manager on Monday.

The decision to hire Amaro, 43, is hardly a shock. There was strong speculation when Pat Gillick was hired three years ago that he was brought in, in part, to mentor the young assistant.

Amaro, who was often presented as the public face of the Phillies front office as Gillick preferred to operate of the spotlight, is heavily involved in many aspects of the organization, including contract negotiations. It was Amaro who introduced closer Brad Lidge and spoke for the organization when the Phillies announced his contract extension earlier this season.

Amaro has strong Phillies ties. His father, Ruben Sr., played for the Phillies and then worked for the team in a number of capacities. Ruben Jr. was a batboy for the Phillies from 1980 through 1983, and also played for the Phils in 1992-93 and 1996-98. He is also bilingual and a graduate of Stanford.

As BSS points out, however, the hiring comes with a loss:

What is of more concern is the loss of Arbuckle. He is the man predominantly responsible for the developing of most of the Phillies core -- Utley, Hamels, Howard, Rollins, Burrell, and Ruiz. That's six of the nine players in the starting lineup that just won the World Series. And not only will he be missed, but what of the people he might take with him when he goes?

Congratulations to Ruben Amaro. With Arbuckle's resume, I'm sure he'll wind up in an important position with another team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 30, 2008
Macha, Macha, Man(ager)
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The Brewers hired Ken Macha as manager today:

The 58-year-old Macha, who managed Oakland to a pair of American League West titles, agreed to a two-year contract. He replaces Sveum, who became interim manager when Ned Yost was fired with 12 games left in the regular season.

"It means a tremendous amount to me," Macha said. "The players are the guys that go out there and win or lose the games for you, and I think the job of a manager and a coach is to get these players as prepared as you possibly can."

Macha is famous for being fired and rehired by the Athletics between the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Jeff Sackman at Brew Crew Ball is happy:

f the three finalists, Macha is by far my favorite. We may have been able to do better, but if we're choosing only from experienced big-league managers with recent success, there aren't many guys I'd rather have.

Ken inherits a good group of hitters, but with both Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia possibly leaving, he'll need to depend on young pitchers developing quickly to keep the team in contention.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Coaches
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It looks like Mike Maddux and Rick Peterson will be pitching coaches in Texas and Milwaukee, we just don't know which will be where.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 27, 2008
No Job Offered
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Willie Randolph said he was never offered a job with the Nationals because Jim Bowden knew Randolph was interviewing for a managerial position. Therefore, he did not turn down an offer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New GM
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Phillies Nation links to an article indicating Ruben Amaro will be named the new Phillies general manager soon after the World Series ends.

That's not surprising. He's served as assistant GM for ten years and probably knows the team as well as anyone right now. If the Phillies win the World Series, however, he'll be taking over a team at a high point. It's tough to look good after that.

By the way, it seems Pat Gillick always knows when to leave an organization. He builds a winner, leaves, and lets someone else take the blame when the organization falls apart. Pat builds teams, not management culture. He has a gift for putting winning teams on the field, but he doesn't appear to teach or pass on that knowledge to whoever follows him. We'll see if Amaro is any different.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 25, 2008
More Money
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The Marlins are raising payroll for 2009:

The Marlins have decided to raise their payroll to the $30-$35 million range and have been in serious talks to trade Mike Jacobs, officials in contact with the team's front office said. They're also expected to deal Scott Olsen (to make room for Andrew Miller in the rotation) and Kevin Gregg. But there is internal support for keeping Dan Uggla.

The Marlins, who had a $22 million payroll in 2008, wanted to deal Jacobs to Kansas City, but the deal died last week because of a medical issue involving the minor-league pitcher that Florida would have received. The Marlins also spoke to Toronto and San Francisco about Jacobs.

So there's a chance the team will earn more than Alex Rodriguez next season. Maybe Loria was visited by the ghosts of Baseball Past, Present and Future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 24, 2008
Mariners Hire
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Derek Zumsteg expresses his concern over the Mariners' new general manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 23, 2008
Sharper at Third
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The Mets hire Razor Shines to coach third base for 2009. How cool is that? "Razor sends the the runner, and he's cut down at the plate! Not a shining moment for the third base coach!"

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Dollar Stengthens, Canadians Hit Hardest
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It looks like the Blue Jays made a poor bet concerning the strength of the US Dollar:

"The nightmare is starting all over again," said Godfrey, who took over as team president when it cost $1.49 Canadian to buy one U.S. buck.

He said the formula is pretty simple: On a $100 million (U.S.) payroll, each dime of difference between a lower Canadian dollar and the higher U.S. greenback costs the Jays about $8 million. So based on a 2008 payroll of $97.8 million and an 80-cent Canadian dollar, down 20 cents from the almost-at-par buck of a couple of months ago, the Jays need to make up about $16 million to maintain both payroll and the same place on the balance sheet.

The team typically purchases vast amounts of U.S. dollars, out of which to pay the players, when rates are favourable, but did not buy enough to cover the entire payroll this time. (Godfrey would not say exactly how much they didn't buy; other sources indicate less than half.) All minor-league, travel and spring training expenses are in U.S. dollars, while local revenues arrive in Canadian.

Of course, this means a trip to watch your favorite team play at the Rogers Center will be really cheap.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2008
New GM
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The Mariners named a new general manager just before the start of the World Series moritorium:

Seattle Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln and President Chuck Armstrong announced today that Jack Zduriencik (zur-EN-sik) has been named the Mariners new Executive Vice President & General Manager of Baseball Operations.

USS Mariner has more:

Apparently the key was his record with young talent. Not just identifying it - Engle and Fontaine have done fine with that, though depending on whether they stick around, his ability would be crucial there as well. But more importantly, developing it, which has been an area of frustration with the organizational philosophy.

Here's Brewers Blog's point of view:

Zduriencik was very instrumental in helping to build the Brewers into a playoff team in 2008. Since 2000, he has been running the Brewers' drafts, producing the likes of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra.

Sounds like the Mariners made a good decision here. He won't make a splash in the media like Kim Ng would, but long term he may be just what the Mariners need.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 20, 2008
Hendry Extended
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The Cubs signed general manager Jim Hendry to a four year extension. He did a great job putting together his team and deserved to be rewarded.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cowboy Up
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The New York Yankees and Dallas Cowboys combined to form a company to control concessions at their ballparks:

"The old model of stadium concessions is broken," stated Hal Steinbrenner, Co-Chairman of the New York Yankees. "Fans want and deserve a better experience for their sports entertainment dollar. Working with Legends to leverage the talent and experience resident in the Yankees' and Cowboys' organizations will enable us to set a higher bar for sports franchises while delivering greater value to fans. When the new Yankee Stadium opens for the 2009 season, our fans will be able to experience first-hand the enhancements to our menus, concessions, retail operations and fan spaces that Legends has overseen."

The teams should also make more money:

The Yankees and Cowboys borrowed $100 million from Goldman Sachs and will form their own company to handle food, team stores, etc. at their new stadiums. Much of this will be to enhance the atmosphere in the suites. The company hopes to branch out to other teams, arenas and colleges.

By cutting out the middleman, the teams theoretically should make more money. This seems like a smart move by the Steinbrenners. Hal Steinbrenner spoke about a year ago about such ventures and Hank Steinbrenner, you may recall, once predicted the Yankees could work with the Red Sox. This is the kind of thing they were talking about.

Just another revenue stream to bring in or keep high quality ballplayers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:02 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Kerrigan to the Pirates
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The Pittsburgh Pirates hired Joe Kerrigan to coach their pitchers:

"Joe Kerrigan brings to the Pirates, a long and successful track record of developing and maximizing the performance of the pitchers on his staff," said Pirates general manager Neal Huntington. "His teaching ability, work ethic and game planning will pay immediate dividends. Joe's passion, knowledge and experience will make a quality impact on our organization."

Joe was miscast as a manager but I always thought he did a good job as a pitching coach. I like this move by the Pirates.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 19, 2008
Macha to Milwaukee?
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The Milwaukee Brewers interviewed Ken Macha for the manager's job:

Don't forget, GM Doug Melvin originally offered Macha the job before the 2003 season but he turned it down and took the managerial job in Oakland instead. Melvin then went to his next choice, Ned Yost.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Who Wants to Work in Washington?
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How bad are things with the Nationals? Not even Al Pedrique wants to coach there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 18, 2008
Glass Wall
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Joe Maddon describes how he uses Bill Walsh's glass wall to keep his emotions under control during a game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Dale Denied
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The Milwaukee Brewers won't bring Dale Sveum back in 2009:

The team announced Friday that interim manager Dale Sveum is no longer under consideration. Sveum took over after Ned Yost was fired with 12 games left in the regular season.

Melvin says the next manager must have had success at the major-league level.

I find it interesting that Sveum manages to get the Brewers in the playoffs and loses his job, while Jerry Manuel presides over another Mets debacle and stays on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 17, 2008
Tips for Jerry
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Fire Joe Morgan provides tips that Jerry Manuel can use to teach the Mets batters how to hit in the clutch:

4. Kidnap Carlos Delgado's kids and hold them at gunpoint while Carlos takes BP. "You like pressure, Carlos? This is what the playoffs feel like." Then, after Carlos strokes a home run, shoot one of the kids. Just in the leg, though. Remember, it's just a game.

Once he shoots the kid in the leg, maybe Jerry can go all Clint Eastwood on him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 16, 2008
Final Four
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The Mariners announced their final four candidates for the general manager position. Kim Ng makes the cut.

Hat tip to 6-4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Managerial Triangle
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It looks like the Nationals are going to hire Willie Randolph as bench coach. Nationals Enquirer believes this sets up a Manny Acta firing, which will be fine with Acta as he then gets the Mets job when Jerry Manuel finishes his contract. Sounds like a lot of traveling on the Acela Express.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 14, 2008
Medical Resignation
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The Nationals medical director resigns:

In 2008, almost every significant Nationals position player spent time on the disabled list. A few of those injuries were originally diagnosed as day-to-day problems and proved more serious. Shaffer, when asked late in the season if he saw a common thread in all the ailments, saw bad luck as the only link. "You know, honestly, that's probably what I would attribute it to," Shaffer said. "The injuries don't have much in common."
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bobby Booted
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The Yankees fired third base coach Bobby Meacham today.

The other interesting aspect to this move is that Meacham was one of the two choices Joe Girardi made for his staff, the other being bullpen coach Mike Harkey. Firing Meacham takes away an ally of the manager. Girardi, you may recall, was stunned at questions about whether his staff would he changed, saying he saw no reason. Obviously Brian Cashman felt differently.

Rich Monteleone was also fired. I don't think it's a good sign for the manager when his coaches get replaced. That said, was there anything wrong with Meacham's performance at third base? I don't remember many criticisms of his sending or holding runners during the regular season.

Update: River Ave. Blues thought Meacham did blow obvious calls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 13, 2008
Sveum's Future
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Dale Sveum is traveling to Arizona to talk about his future managing with Doug Melvin. Melvin himself may get a contract extension during these meetings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Coaching Adjustments
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Joel Sherman suggest Joe Girardi follow the path of Tom Coughlin as he makes adjustments to both the way he handles the press and his players.

Girardi needs to improve how he conducts himself as Yankees manager - something even he concedes must occur. But the template should not be Torre. It should be Tom Coughlin. Because Girardi has so many more similarities to Coughlin, notably a Type-A personality.

Remember where Coughlin was after the 2006-07 season? He had a disenchanted locker room and a media corps painting a negative picture of his personality. Coughlin's bosses demanded he address these issues.

Coughlin did by meeting with the Giants' traveling press corps individually to glean a greater insight into why the relationship was so toxic. And he formed a player leadership council and met with it regularly as a way to better understand the temperature of the locker room. Coughlin did not forfeit his core values.

Problems with the press over injury reports were well covered during the season. Problems with players seem to be coming out only now that the season is over. They seem minor right now. The honeymoon is over, however, so if they aren't addressed, then they may spell trouble for Girardi in the future.

Hat tip, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 12, 2008
Managerial Criticism
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Patrick Sullivan wasn't too happy with Terry Francona Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 08, 2008
Job Interviews
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The Mariners bring in five general manager candidates this week for interviews. I like the fact that they are looking at people with experience in places like Arizona, Cleveland and Toronto, organizations all with a good understanding of statistics.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 07, 2008
Rockies Purge
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Three Colorado Rockies coaches lost their jobs:

Hitting coach Alan Cockrell, third base coach Mike Gallego and bench coach Jamie Quirk were not offered contracts by the Rockies on Tuesday. Pitching coach Bob Apodaca and first base coach Glenallen Hill will return for the 2009 season.

When I hear about these firings, I always wonder if the manager is on the hot seat. Usually, managers get to pick their coaching staffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 06, 2008
Running on Manuel
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Rich Hoffman sits down for a private moment with Charlie Manuel after the division series clinching game:

He is 64 years old, the prototype baseball lifer, and the people in his profession know what he does and how well he does it. The proof is in the way his teams approach their business, how hard they play and how they play to the end. This year, the proof is in the champagne spray.

Manuel knows it, too. He could not stop smiling as he sat there and talked, amused by his exploding cell phone. The guy is a fascinating character. He has a

really hard shell but he also has a quiet

interest in vindication. He does not admit it, not exactly, but you can tell sometimes that the people who dismissed him early on as some kind of a bumpkin did draw blood, at least a little. And when you ask him what he would want people to say about him today, he does not hesitate.

"You know?" he said. "Know what I'd like people to call me? A winner, that's what."

I think he's more John McNamara than Davey Johnson, but the McNamaras do their share of winning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 05, 2008
Loving Francona
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Daniel Drezner disputes the argument of Dan Shaughnessy and Jack Curry that Red Sox fans don't appreciate Terry Francona as a manager:

As a Red Sox fan who talks to other Sox fans, I have rarely, if ever, heard an unkind word directed at Francona during his tenure as manager here. In fact, most Sox fans think Francona excels at the three biggest challenges a Red Sox manager faces: a) keeping the players on the same page; b) handling the media; c) never panicking during the season.

If anything, it's the national media -- I'm looking at you, BBWAA -- that underrates Francona. Consider that he's never won Manager of the Year. In the miracle year of 2004, he finished fifth in the voting, receiving zero first-place ballots. In 2005, he managed to get a team without a true #1 or #2 starter and no established closer into the postseason and finished sixth in the voting, receiving zero first-place ballots. Last year, despite helming the team with the best record, he finished fourth in the voting and received zero first-place ballots. Oh, and he's not going to win it this year, either -- Joe Maddon will.

If the Red Sox win another World Series this year, shouldn't everyone hold Francona in the same high regard we hold Joe Torre? I'd argue at this point Terry manages the personnel as well as Joe, and might even manage the actual game better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 04, 2008
Analyzing Ng
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With the Mariners looking for a new GM, Bleeding Blue and Teal reviews the career of Kim Ng.

Ng has never carried the title of GM, but she has just about all the experience you could hope for from a non GM. She's been in the professional game for nearly 20 years, is highly regarded and well rounded, and has worked for other Mariner GM candidates Brian Cashman and Paul DePodesta. She's structured contracts, stared down intimidating agents, initiated trade talks and been in charge of player development. When she worked for the American League she even learned the ins and outs of various rules and the loopholes that go with them, knowledge that the typical GM candidate wouldn't possess.

Her biggest knock is that she lacks scouting experience, something that many GMs and other candidates have. Some will insist that Seattle hires someone with this experience, but how important is it?

Bill Bavasi came from a scouting background and some of the work he did in the minor leagues was great because of it, but he was awful when it came to making trades, structuring contracts and other vital GM functions. Wouldn't you prefer to have someone that can successfully perform these functions, handing off the scouting to others? Seattle have highly regarded people in charge of scouting, including the Vice President of Scouting Bob Fontaine, Vice President of International Operations (and apparent Seattle GM candidate) Bob Engle, and others. Besides, she has experience as a minor league director with the Dodgers despite her lack of scouting experience.

Her hiring would likely be a plus for the Mariners. Not only would they get a person experienced in all aspects of the front office, but they would receive a great deal of positive publicity from the move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 03, 2008
Manuel Remains Mets Manager
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The Mets signed Jerry Manuel to a two-year contract with an option for a third. I haven't seen the price tag yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2008
Rock and a Hard Place
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Brian Cashman, in a news conference to announce his new contract, describes the criticism he faces:

In turn, Cashman's critics have begun popping up, questioning his new emphasis on retaining talented but unproven younger players, even it means that the Mets and not the Yankees ended up with Johan Santana.

"The story line that's going to be written, if I left, I didn't agree with," said Cashman, in what was clearly a reference to the criticism being tossed his way. "I wasn't going to let that story be written."

He added: "For a long time we've been old and everybody knows it. And for a long time people have pointed it out. Now when you start to fix it, 'Oh my God, we've missed the playoffs! Off with his head!' That's fine, I accept it."

The old team isn't the only criticism leveled at Brian. More people cite a number of signings that didn't work out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
More Minaya
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The Mets called a news conference for tomorrow to announce a new contract for Omar Minaya. John Delcos discusses the high and low points of Omar's tenure this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cashing Out
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WasWatching takes a negative view of the Yankees extending Brian Cashman's contract.

I wonder if a more apt comparison might be the Baltimore Orioles. They were a powerhouse in the mid to late 1990s, with a good team and an excellent revenue stream from their new stadium. They certainly had the money to compete with New York. Yet, the front office of that team ran a good organization into the ground. Cashman may not have improved on the team Bob Watson and Gene Michael assembled, but he didn't turn the team into a laughing stock either.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 30, 2008
Cash for the Cashman
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River Ave. Blues alerts me to this Kat O'Brien story indicating a three-year, $6 million deal for Brian Cashman. I wonder if GM contracts are guaranteed?

Cashman deliberated over the decision about whether it was time to move on after 11 seasons as GM, but gave the Yankees an affirmative answer this afternoon. In the end, a Yankees source said, it came down to what was best for his family. The new contract will be for slightly more than Cashman had been making, putting it at in the ballpark of $2-million per year.

Neither Cashman nor Yankees co-chairman Hal Steinbrenner, with whom Cashman negotiated the deal, could immediately be reached for comment. The two work closely together, and met at Yankee Stadium on Monday, and that relationship was a huge positive for Cashman in making up his mind.

I like Brian Cashman, so I'm rooting for him to bring the team back into the playoffs in the New Yankee Stadium. Anyone who can work for Steinbrenner for that long is doing something right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 29, 2008
Tiger Talk
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The Detroit Tigers Weblog reviews Dave Dombrowski's talk with reporters. Edgar Renteria won't be back.

Correction: Fixed the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Back in Black
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Bud Black remains the manager of the Padres:

The Padres announced late Monday afternoon that Black and most of his staff will return in 2008. The Padres finished 63-99, 21 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Padres say they won't renew the contract of bench coach Craig Colbert. Last week, hitting coach Wally Joyner resigned with six games left due to philosophical differences with the front office, which favors statistical analysis.

I believe they mean 2009 in the quote above. Black has one year left on his contract. The failure of the Padres this year was more about the front office failing to put a decent team on the field. Black, however, didn't manage to extract anything extra out of them. And while 2007 was a good year in terms of wins, San Diego did collapse at the end, allowing the Rockies to win the wild card. Next season could be Bud's last if there isn't an improvement.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Coaches Continue to Fall
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More coaches fired, this time in Pittsburgh.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:47 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New CEO
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The Blue Jays need to find a new CEO:

Paul Godfrey has announced he will step down as president and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays at the end of 2008.

The Jays, who ended the regular season on Sunday with an 86-76 record, have never advanced to the post-season under Godfrey's reign at the top of the major league organization. Godfrey, 69, joined the Blue Jays on Sept. 1, 2000 when Rogers Communication Inc., bought the team from Interbrew SA.

While attendance increased under Godfrey, the team fortunes didn't. I wonder if the new person will be as likely to keep Ricciardi around?

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 28, 2008
Pitching Out
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The Tigers fire their pitching and bullpen coaches. Not really surprising given how this team went from pitching power house to the third worst ERA in the AL in just two seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Jerry's Kids
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The Mets will retain the services of Jerry Manuel as manager:

Manuel is expected to be approached to hammer out a new contract in the next day or two. The Mets again failed to make the playoffs after losing 4-2 to the Marlins on the final day of the season. But Manuel's bosses believe he did an excellent job under trying circumstances, including late-season injuries to closer Billy Wagner and starter John Maine and an overall bullpen breakdown. The Mets were 55-38 under Manuel after starting 34-35 under Willie Randolph.

"I told Jerry we're going to have a decision sooner rather than later,'' general manager Omar Minaya said. 'He's done a very good job, and we're going to sit down and talk about it.''

The Mets lost 12 of their final 17 games last year to blow a seven-game lead with Randolph as manager. This year they were 7-10 over their final 17 games.

Mets owner Jeff Wilpon said, "I feel totally different than last year. I think last year we underachieved. This year we overachieved.''

Somehow, I don't think blowing a late season lead, no matter how small, is overachieving. Still, the team played better under Manuel than under Randolph, and that has to count for something. I still wonder if Church didn't suffer a head injury and Delgado got hot two week earlier if Randolph would still be in charge.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Good-bye Coaches
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The Nationals fired five coaches before today's game:

Each was in his second year with the organization. Only pitching coach Randy St. Claire, as I mentioned earlier, will be retained. Before they all exited, I was able to speak with Harris, Tolman and Corrales. All said they thanked Acta for the opportunity; all handled the decision with grace.

No coach yet knew the next step. "Go home and start making a list of people to call," Tolman said.

This, of course, means less control for Manny Acta. My guess is they didn't want to make Manny available to the Mets, who need to decide about keeping Jerry Manuel. By firing Acta's coaches, upper management signals their disapproval but still gives their manager a chance to bounce back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:05 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 27, 2008
Steinbrenner's Deals?
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This makes me believe Brian Cashman won't be back with the Yankees:

The start of the 2007 off-season played out largely beyond Cashman's control. After Rodriguez fizzled in the playoffs for the fourth year in a row, then opted out of his contract, Cashman started preparing for life without him.

In the short term, it would have been impossible to replace Rodriguez. But in the long run, there was an upside in not saddling the Yankees with a contract that would pay Rodriguez more than $20 million a season for the declining years of his career.

It was just those kinds of deals that started to infect the Yankees after they lost the 2001 World Series. That was when George Steinbrenner, their principal owner, demanded more control over baseball operations, sending the team on a four-year spending spree that started to wane when he yielded authority to Cashman after the 2005 season.

But last winter, when Steinbrenner put his sons, Hank and Hal, atop the hierarchy, the wild spending returned, over Cashman's head. Hank Steinbrenner engineered the deals for Rodriguez (10 years, roughly $300 million), Posada (four years, $52.4 million) and Mariano Rivera (three years, $45 million).

Maybe I missed this, but I thought these were deals made by Cashman. If this sort of thing was not in his control, then I expect he'll move on to less stressful pastures. I was surprised by the length of the Posada and Rivera deals; I could see two years with options, but longer than that seemed imprudent. Given that both ended up with bad shoulders, shorter contracts would have been the right move.

Update: Sorry, forgot to include the link before.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
September 26, 2008
Braves Breaking Up?
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J.C. Bradbury reads between the lines and finds a rift in the Braves organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 24, 2008
The Value of Cash
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The Yankees want Brian Cashman back, and now it's up to him to decide if he wants to return.

Cashman knows the Steinbrenner family wants him back. He has not yet made up his mind, but said he would decide well before Oct. 31, the date his contract expires. In 2005, Cashman waited until the final few days to decide.

"That's not going to happen again," Cashman said in a telephone interview. "That wouldn't be fair to the Yankees."

Brian may decide it's time to move on to less green but also less stressful pastures.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 23, 2008
More Minaya
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Buster Olney reports the Mets are going to reward Omar Minaya with a four-year contract extension. I guess those late season disappointments are all the manager's fault.

Hat tip, LoHud Mets Blog.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Should He Stay or Should He Go?
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Dugout Central presents two viewpoints on Brian Cashman staying with the Yankees. Steve Caimano takes the pro-Cashman position:

The first big story of the Yankees' off-season will be their decision on General Manager Brian Cashman, and that decision should be to pay him big dollars to stay. Cashman is one of the best GMs in the game, and he has been hardened by his years of operating under the microscope in New York. There is really no chance that the Yankees could find a replacement for him who would be able to come in and operate the team at his level. Beyond that, he has clearly set the team on a course that will ensure that their "rebuilding" is really more of a "reloading."

I don't agree that Cashman can't be replaced. There are plenty of bright young people in baseball who are more than capable of putting together a winning organization. There might even be some who can handle the New York press. Caimano's main point, however, is that Cashman deserves the time to finish the job he started when he took full control of the team.

Scott Jensen, however, uses an economic argument to decide Cashman must go. (See the link for the graph.)

What we would expect to see is a variant of a U-curve, where initially, as a young and more inexpensive championship team matures and demands greater pay, the bang for the buck trend would decrease. We would then expect the curve eventually to bottom out as veterans pass their peak and overall performance decreases while costs remain high. Finally, we would expect the ratio to increase with an influx of new, cheaper players and better results.

Instead, what we've seen is an overall downward trend since 1998.

My problem with this analysis is that the Yankees talent held their value for a long time. It's tough to replace Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera if they don't decline. In other words, part of the problem was that the Yankees aged well. That still doesn't excuse long term contracts to Mo and Jorge last off-season, but the core veterans are good performers. That U-turn could be just around the corner.

I think Cashman proves that even with a lot of money, winning isn't as easy as it looks. Failure for the Yankees comes at a very high level of play relative to other clubs, so despite a good season, Brian finds his job on the line. Whatever the outcome this winter, I suspect he'll do just fine. Any new job has to be easier than the one he has now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 22, 2008
Name Change
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With the Devil Rays name change working so well, maybe the Nationals should try it out as well:

Many cities' teams have appellations that reflect their local heritage or principal industry, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Houston Astros, the Milwaukee Brewers or the Green Bay Packers. So with this in mind, I thought that a highly appropriate and ethnically safe team name for the reincarnated capital city baseball team would be the Washington Lobbyists.

I like that a lot. However, I came up with the perfect name for the team back in 2004, The Washington Exposés.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Sveuming Upstream
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The consensus in the Brewers clubhouse is to keep Dale Sveum, but it appears his job is tied to Milwaukee making the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 21, 2008
Larkin on the Nats
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Barry Larkin gives his opinion on how the lack of veterans on the Nationals hurts the development of their young players:

"When I was 21, I had 40-year-old guys around me saying, 'Listen young buck, this is how you do this, this is how this happens, and you know what -- No! You're not going out tonight. You're getting your [butt] up and you're getting here tomorrow morning because that's the way a professional works.' These guys don't have that. And then you have a 23-year-old kid who's the de facto leader of your team. So it's not an enviable position for these guys, and it's tough for these guys. They are playing hard, but they are learning. They're learning. The best players on their team are learning to play at the big league level, and it's tough. It's like learning a new language and just saying, 'OK, I taught ya man. You can go to China. I was just there. Go communicate with people.' Ahh, it's not gonna happen."
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Delta House
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Steve Clark notes similarities between the Brewers and the final scenes of Animal House:

There were plenty of reasons to fire Yost before the season started or midway through the year, but when the schedule reached September, the Brewers should have unfortunately stuck with the girl they brought to the dance.

But when they fired Yost, it was like floats were running into bleachers, Niedermeyer shooting at Flounder and Bluto scaling the downtown buildings. And no matter what Melvin said, all was not well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:04 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 19, 2008
Lots of Dollars
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Maury Brown notes that given the economy, Major League Baseball is having a banner year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 16, 2008
More Theo
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It's not official yet, but the Red Sox are giving Theo Epstein a contract extension. Given the success of the Red Sox since he took over, it's well deserved.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Managerial Defibrillator
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The Brewers admit the main reason for firing Ned Yost was to kick start the team:

Sveum admitted that there was intended shock value to making the managerial switch.

"We're hoping it's a shock reaction to get (the players) to perform up to their level," Sveum said. "We're trying to send a shockwave through this team."

They're scoring 2.7 runs per game in September, go something needs to kick the offense into gear. Remember, too, that with both Sabahtia and Sheets free agents this winter, the Brewers put all their resources into winning this year. They can't take the chance of missing the playoffs after their mid-season moves.

It's too bad Yost didn't get the chance to finish. I questioned some of his moves with pitchers lately, especially how he used Sabathia. He'd allow him to stay in a blowout to get a shutout, but pull him with a relatively low pitch count in a 2-1 game. His use of the bullpen was questionable. On the other hand, he did try batting Jason Kendall ninth and the pitcher eighth, so he was at least open to new ideas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 15, 2008
I Wonder if Jerry Manuel is Looking Over his Shoulder
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The Mets fall to the Nationals 7-2 this evening, and with Ned Yost getting fired, that interim label is looking pretty good on Jerry Manuel right now. John Lannan holds New York to one hit over seven innings, while Pedro Martinez walked more than he struck out. You never used to see that out of Pedro.

Lannan had allowed 23 hits to the Mets in 15 innings of work this season, generating a 6.00 ERA. That looks a bit better after this start. Lastings Milledge collected three hits and scored twice. He came into the game hitting .149 against his former team.

The Mets lead over the Phillies is down to 1/2 game with New York holding a one game lead in the AFILC.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Braun on Yost
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Ryan Braun told the press Yost never lost the team. He's also clear on why the team made the move:

"I was really surprised at the timing of it. I at least thought they'd let the season play out and see what happened, but they felt like they needed to make a decision. Obviously, I have a lot of belief in upper management and ownership, the direction they see us going."

Braun agreed the move was part of the team's win-now mentality, which was a way to combat the season slipping.

"There's no way you make a move like this unless they felt that way," Braun said.

This was a wake-up call from the front office. I don't buy the Sabathia near-no-hitter whining as a reason for the team doing poorly, since Melvin was just as guilty as Yost. If that was the reason, the GM should go too. The front office needed a drastic move to get the team's attention. We'll see if this is the right move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Yost Toast
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I'm getting emails from all over that the Brewers fired Ned Yost.

"This was a very difficult move to make, and we appreciate all of the work that Ned has done to develop this team into a contender," GM Doug Melvin said. "In the end, this was a collaborative decision made to put our Club in the best position for the final two weeks of the season."

Dale Sveum takes over, and a coaching staff overhaul is in the works. Yost managed just one collapse too many, but I'm surprised the move came now. This must put Fire Ned Yost out of business.

Update: It seems to me that if the whole team stops hitting, there's not much a manager can do. Add to that 3/5 of the rotation and the two big guns in the bullpen, and you have a disaster. If Yost wore them down, I can't see how Sveum fixes that. If he pissed them off so much they don't want to play, maybe Dale can help.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:21 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
September 14, 2008
Full of Shouse
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Fire Ned Yost examines Ned Yost's reason for leaving Brian Shouse in the game today and find it lacking.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 11, 2008
National Communicator
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Chartese Burnett is the latest subject of the Women in Baseball series. She's the Vice President of Communications for the Washington Nationals. Interestingly, she never watched a baseball game before working for the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
He Used to Work Here
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The Good Phight is not too happy that the Phillies are tied with a team put together by Ed Wade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 10, 2008
More Cox
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Bobby Cox will honor his contract and return to manage the Braves in 2009.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 08, 2008
Stating the Obvious
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This is news? Was there really any doubt? I would not be surprised to see Cashman ousted, but the Yankees haven't played poorly enough to get Girardi fired.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
What Happened to Hillman?
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Via Baseball Time in Arlington, Joe Posnanski wonders what happened to the Trey Hillman who was so successful in Japan:

No, the troubling part is that all of those things that Dayton Moore and so many others saw in Hillman -- his bustling energy, his likeable personality, his sense of perspective, his ability to inspire and motivate the players -- those things have been missing in action. The Royals have played lackluster baseball. They have gone backward defensively. They are so unfocused that Hillman last week made a point to say they're catching pop-ups better. They have by far the worst plate discipline in all of baseball. The Royals' young players have not improved enough and in some case regressed. This is not a well-managed baseball team.

And everyone seems to know it, especially the players. It should be said up front that Major League Baseball players often grumble about their manager. But multiple sources who are around the club every day say that these Royals openly mock him. A new Trey Hillman joke is almost a daily occurrence, and it's hard for a manager to recover from being a clubhouse punchline.

It seems it was easier for Hillman to adjust to the different world of Japan than the familiar world of Major League Baseball. Posnanski notes at the end of the article that Hillman's job is safe and he does seem to be learning from his mistakes. However, it's a disappointing article given the high hopes for the manager at the beginning of the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 06, 2008
Trembley Returns
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The Orioles decided to bring Dave Trembley back as manager for the 2009 season. The Orioles performed well in a tough division, where their four rivals are all over .500. He deserves a chance to see if he can keep the improvement going.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 30, 2008
Question for a Saturday Morning
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Does anyone still think the Yankees should have kept Joe Torre as manager? I'm not looking for comments on the way the Yankees released him, but the actual decision to let him go. He's not exactly marching the Dodgers into the post season at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
August 26, 2008
End of an Era?
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Richard Griffin makes the case for and against J.P. Ricciardi staying on as GM in Toronto. He has two years left on his contract. On the pro side:

Ricciardi has built a farm system that is about two years from producing some key major leaguers. He deserves to see his best prospects bear fruit and watch the young guns from recent drafts develop and reach the majors.

Well, it took him long enough. I received this email last night from Michael Hobson who writes at The Fan View.

Remember how the Jays said that were using older catchers like Zaun and Barajas as stop-gaps because the veterans were simply filling space and biding time until the organization's catching star was ready. That was the catch phrase a few years back when the position of phenom catcher was held by Guillermo Quiroz--now a serviceable back-up in Baltimore.

Next up was Curtis Thigpen. The organization promoted his value as the next guy until Toronto baseball fans were witness to a guy who looked like he swung a toothpick, and hit as such.

Lastly, there is Robinson Diaz. A player that was hyped as the best of them all. A player that was touted to take over the catching position perhaps as early as late this season--but most likely it would occur at the start of the next season. This was a player that was recently sent to the Pirates as compensation when the Jays acquired a mediocre major league third baseman from Pittsburgh.

JP needs the assurance that he is a smart baseball man in the mould of his major league mentor Billy Beane. It is certainly unfortunate for the Jays that the bright student never developed into anything more than a bright student.

My bet is that J.P. is gone at the end of the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:16 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 22, 2008
Bad Year for Sabermetric Teams
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Manny Acta

Manny Acta argues with Rob Drake.
Photo: Icon SMI

My comment about Manny Acta at MetsBlog.com drew this response from Peter Gammons:
Manny Acta is a sabermetrics student and the only manager who ever dropped a VORP on me. He has the worst team in baseball.

That got me thinking. Sabermetric teams really disappointed in 2008.

  • Manny Acta's Nationals own the worst record in the majors.
  • The Cleveland Indians stand 14 games out of first place.
  • The Blue Jays put together a good pitching staff, but couldn't match it with a decent offense.
  • The Oakland Athletics started in contention but trades threw them into a tailspin.
  • Detroit didn't live up to the hype of their winter trades.
  • San Diego sits in last place in the NL West.
  • Trey Hillman's Royals haven't improved, and sabermetric pitcher Brian Bannister pitched poorly.

The Red Sox and Diamondbacks are still in contention. Arizona hasn't blown anyone away, however, and the Red Sox in a three-way race for the wild card. The biggest triumph was Baseball Prospectus's prediction that the Rays would win 88 games. I'm not sure if the Tampa Bay front office is statistically oriented, but they seem to be making moves as if they were. If true, their success will be a big victory for the science.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:20 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
August 19, 2008
Gratitude
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A Cubs fan says thank you to Kenny Williams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 16, 2008
Getting His Mo-Grove Back
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Mike Hargrove wants to manage again:

"It really would have to be the right place - and the team that did it would have to believe I wouldn't walk away."

Hargrove said he has no regrets about his decision to leave, other than missing some close relationships he had established in the game.

"I really misspoke when I said I had lost my passion for the game," Hargrove said. "I think my competitive edge was dulled. Now, it's back."

We'll see if anyone wants to take a chance on Mike. The worry that he'll walk away would be a huge factor in the decision. I don't know how one guarantees that won't happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 15, 2008
More Scouts Fall
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The Latin American kick-back scandal hits the Yankees as they fire two scouts:

The Yankees terminated the contracts of Carlos Rios, their director of Latin American scouting, and Ramon Valdivia, their Dominican Republic scouting director, a baseball official said Friday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because no announcement had been made.

The two, who had been on leave, were terminated Thursday, the official said.

They were accused of skimming six figures from the deals, a second baseball official said, also speaking on condition of anonymity because no announcements had been made.

The Yankees join the White and Red Sox as teams to dismiss employees over this practice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Melk nor Sexson the Champange Room
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Via Shysterball, the Yankees send Melky Cabrera to the minors and release Richie Sexson.

Bruce Gardner and Cody Ransom were recalled from Triple-A Scranton to fill the open spots on the Yankees' 25-man roster.

I'm very disappointed in Melky Cabrera. He's still young, but you'd like to see progress early in a player's career and Melky showed none this season. While I love the name, I'm not sure how much Cody Ransom will help. He basically defines career minor leaguer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:01 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
August 12, 2008
Hair Club for Dodgers
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Russell Martin gave Brad Penny a Mohawk, and Manny will cut the dreds:

It's Monday, and Manager Joe Torre lost his bet and will make a donation to Mattel Children's Hospital at UCLA -- Ramirez still looking like Samson before messing with the ladies.

A deal has apparently been struck, though, with Fantastic Sam's, Ramirez getting it cut sometime this week and a Dodgers charity benefiting.

Hair today, and maybe gone tomorrow, and it's all anyone wants to talk about.

Manny also told the report the Red Sox fined him $40,000 for pushing the traveling secretary in Texas. All the money went to charity.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 11, 2008
Bonds or Cooper?
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Richard Justice notes a quote from Cecil Cooper that the Astros manager would quit if the team signed Barry Bonds.

Maybe Coop feels he has done such a bang-up job running the clubhouse and the games that he can help out Ed Wade in personnel. Lord knows, Ed could use some help.

If I were Cecil Cooper I'd be real careful about making threats. Sure the Astros have been playing well lately, but Cecil Cooper could be replaced in about three seconds. I have Don Baylor's telephone number around here somewhere.

Lisa Gray quotes Justice as writing:

Really? I'd make that swap. That would be a win-win.

I can't find that in the post, but it was my thought exactly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 09, 2008
Reds Hire Bill Bavasi
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He's only an assistant, but I can't see how this is a good move for the Reds.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:40 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 07, 2008
Si to Cito
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The Blue Jays annoucned that Cito Gaston will return to the bench in 2009 as the manager of the Blue Jays.

"Cito's definitely going to be back," general manager J.P. Ricciardi said Thursday. "He's done a good job. We're six games over .500 since he took over. We've got a long way to go offensively, but he's really laid the groundwork for some of the right stuff offensively. The guys like playing for him."

The Blue Jays win tonight 6-4 over Oakland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 04, 2008
Coaching Pitchers
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Lone Star Ball offers thoughts on the purge of the Texas pitching coaches. His working hypothesis was the Mark Connor was trying to make each pitcher throw the same way.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 02, 2008
Weeded Garden
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Ron Gardenhire won't be managing tonight's game:

Gardenhire was suspended after he kicked his hat in disgust following his ejection in the seventh inning. Fans threw hats, baseballs and other debris on the field after that, forcing Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen to pull his team off the field for a few minutes.

Ron won't be there if the Twins claim first place.

Update: The Twins just laid down three straight bunts. Gomez and Span picked up back-to-back bunt hits, then Punto sacrificed them to 2nd and 3rd. I can't remember seeing three straight bunts in a row. That's 48 bunt hits for the Twins, more than twice as many as any other team.

Update: After Mauer walks, Morneau hits a sacrifice fly, and the Twins lead 1-0 in the bottom of the third.

Update: Peralta doubles in the top of the fourth to tie the game at one.

Update: Shoppach hits his fifth home run in his last 10 games and the Indians lead 3-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Purge
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The Texas Rangers replaced their pitching coaches Friday night:

The Rangers fired pitching coach Mark Connor and bullpen coach Dom Chiti after Friday's 9-8 win against Toronto.

Triple-A Oklahoma pitching coach Andy Hawkins and Jim Colborn, director of Pacific Rim operations and a pitching coach for two years under former Pittsburgh manager Jim Tracy, will take over for the rest of the season. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said the club will re-evaluate both coaches at that time.

Texas pitchers own the worst ERA in the American League, the only team with an ERA over 5.00. The Rangers are the highest scoring team in the majors at 5.63 runs per game, yet they've been outscored by more than 30 runs. If new pitching coaches can knock down the Rangers ERA, they have a chance at making a run at the wild card this season.

"We felt we weren't seeing the progress we wanted to see," Rangers president Nolan Ryan said. "We're serious about the wild-card race, and in fairness to our offense, we needed to try to do something to improve our pitching. We owe them that."
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
July 30, 2008
Hate in an Elevator
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Tyler Kepner shared an elevator ride with Brian Cashman last night after the Yankees loss:

I missed the early elevator to the clubhouse after Tuesday's game, and the one I got included General Manager Brian Cashman. If you ever wondered how hard this job can be on him, you wouldn't after seeing his face.

...

The elevator stopped at the ground floor, Cashman's stop. "I hate this game," he said, and he walked off into the lobby, toward the parking lot. He had a long drive home to Connecticut, with plenty more time to think about a tough game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 28, 2008
This May be My New Motto
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Joe Maddon wants to "eradicate assumptionism." Time to mock up a tee shirt.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:03 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
July 11, 2008
You Must Pay the Rent!
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The Washington Nationals aren't paying rent, using the excuse that the stadium in incomplete. I love The Nationals Enquirer take on this:

We have to ask: Is "Major League Baseball team" on the Lerner's "punch list" of incomplete items at Nationals Park?
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
It Was Forty Years Ago Today...
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David Atkinson notes in an E-Mail the anniversary of Earl Weaver taking over the Baltimore Orioles:

Before I head off into Never-Never Land for a couple weeks, I'd like to wish congratulations and happy anniversary (on this board, at least) to legendary manager Earl Weaver, who directed his first game as Orioles skipper on July 11, 1968. There are lots of strange and interesting things about Earl's career, he is quite a character. I hope some of you have read his autobiography.

One particularly odd thing that I have noticed in recent years is that despite Earl's type-AA personality and the fact that he's smoked enough Raleigh cigarettes in his life to fill the Grand Canyon (I don't think they even make that brand anymore, do they?), he somehow has managed to outlive a surprising number of his former players. Just off the top of my head, without looking anything up, I can name Pat Dobson, Dave McNally, Elrod Hendricks, Curt Blefary, Mark Belanger, Don Buford, and Pat Kelly. Who else have I missed? And that's only counting players who had a significant role, not journeymen who passed through briefly or guys who just had a cup of coffee in the bigs.

There were lots of amusing incidents in Earl's career. One funny one was the time the Orioles were playing the Twins, and Earl ordered an intentional walk to Dan Ford (because he mistakenly thought that Larry Hisle was up), only to have Hisle, the next batter, bang out the game-winning hit.

Anyone else have fond Weaver memories?

Toward the end of Earl's career, the Red Sox called up a Harvard grad named Mike Stenhouse. The guy could not hit, but he was a walk machine. For his career, he hit .190 with a .308 OBA. In his brief stay with Boston in 1986, he was 2 for 21 with 12 walks, an .095 BA but a .424 OBA. At the time, OBA wasn't as universally recognized as it is today. Earl understood it, however, and when there was talk of letting Stenhouse go, Weaver said that Mike could lead off for the Orioles. Stenhouse went on to have a career as a broadcaster for Pawtucket.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
July 10, 2008
Deep in the Heart of Texas
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We've Got Heart continues their Women in Baseball series with a profile of Pam Gardner, President of Business Operations for the Houston Astros.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 01, 2008
Talking to Davey
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There's an excellent interview with Davey Johnson at Big League Stew. Most of it centers on the Olympics, but they also touch on Willie Randolph's firing. This disappointed me, however:

Q: If Omar Minaya called you after the Olympics and said, "Davey, we need you back, we need you to turn this thing around ... "

DJ: First of all, it's not going to happen. I respect Omar Minaya as a good general manager, but I haven't had a working relationship with him ... but as far as do I want to pursue a career in the big leagues again? No.

I'm really looking forward to managing the Olympics (team) and if it turns out I could manage the World (Baseball) Classic (team) I would be happy.

I love the game of baseball. I know I'm good at what I do. I know every club I've been with, I've left them in better shape, and they managed to mug it up right after I left, change the direction that I had them going in.

That's too bad. I would love to see Davey in a big league dugout again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2008
More Anarchy
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John Royal tries to look deeper at what's going on in the Astros clubhouse. I'm reminded of something Larry Dierker said about managing in Houston:

"When I became the manager, I kind of knew what were the smart things to do. But I also knew that if I did all of them, it would be at the expense of my credibility with the players. With that in mind, I just had to use my instincts to both win the game and keep the whole team in the spirit of pulling together. I didn't want to come off as an egghead guy who was just looking at numbers and ignoring people, and sometimes those considerations ran into each other."

There was also the whole Bagwell/Biggio leadership issue. From what I heard over the years, those two really ran things and kept a tight ship. Maybe Jeff needs to be hired as either the bench coach or the new manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 25, 2008
Just Wondering
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The Royals are 1/2 game behind the Indians. If the Royals win tonight and the Indians lose, does falling into last place trigger the firing of Eric Wedge?

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:26 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
The Twilight Zone
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J.P. Ricciardi says he talked to Adam Dunn on the phone and apologized. Dunn says it never happened:

"What? Not true. One million percent," Dunn told MLB.com after being informed of Ricciardi's comments.

When told of what Dunn said, Ricciardi was adamant that he spoke to the player on the phone.

"All I know is the person I talked to said it was Adam Dunn," Ricciardi said. "That's quite a prank to pull."

I'm not buying Ricciardi's explanation. He says he deleted the caller's number from his cell phone. Why? Who does that? I was going through my phone log yesterday and there were months of calls there. I assume J.P. owns the latest technology, the number should still be there.

Hat tip, BBTF.


Update: More J.P. goodness from Drunk Jays Fans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 24, 2008
Questioning Bochy
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Henry Schulman wonders why Bochy didn't start a prospect at second base on Saturday night:

When Ray Durham had to be the designated hitter in Kansas City on Saturday night because of an ankle injury, manager Bruce Bochy had a perfect opening to start either Emmanuel Burriss or Travis Denker at second base. Instead, he went with the more experienced Jose Castillo.

Decisions like that do nothing to dispel Bochy's reputation, developed in San Diego, that he prefers older players.

Bochy on Castillo:

"He's got power. He's an intriguing player," Bochy said. "He runs fairly well. I think he has the tools to be an everyday player. Now, that's up to him. I think he's improved his work ethic since he's been here. I think he sees this as a great opportunity."

No, he doesn't. He's 27 years old, has over 1700 at bats and a .299 career OBA. With his improved work ethic, his OBA is up to .310 this season. As for power, his career slugging percentage is .386. We know that Castillo is a poor major league player. Give one of the youngsters a chance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 23, 2008
Praising Geren
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Ray Ratto likes the way Bob Geren improved as a manager this season:

Geren's work running the bullpen has been skillful (with the odd glitch here and there, and no, Saturday night doesn't count), with everyone understanding when he will be used and rarely removed from his comfort zone. Geren has juggled a lineup that used to have too many designated hitters and now has too few, and has managed to compile the eighth-best record with the 18th-best offense and the 26th-best slugging percentage.

Of course, their run differential suggests a record that would make them the fifth-best team, so maybe Geren actually is doing a crummy job, but there's only so much analysis you can squeeze out of run differential. Fact is, by all the best math, this club penciled out as another 76-86 team, and it is currently playing at an 88-74 rate.

In other words, the very worst you can say for Geren is that his second team is performing much better than his first did. And in baseball, that's largely the same as saying that's the very best you can say about a manager.

The team owns the best ERA in the AL, with the starters at number one and the bullpen ranked fifth. Geren is certainly playing to the team's strength, and at least knows when to get his starters out of the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2008
Taking it in Stride
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John Gibbons seemed to take his firing well:

"I'm fine. You're disappointed but, then, that's the reality of these jobs," Gibbons said. "A lot of good things happened when I was in Toronto but, you know, nothing really great and by great I mean post-season. That's what the organization was looking for.

"But life goes on, man. Baseball goes on. If the worst thing is I get to spend a couple of months of the summer with my kids, I guess things could be worse. I've got nothing but thanks for the organization, particularly J.P. for giving me this opportunity. He stuck by me, gave me a shot. There's not going to be anything but fond memories.

"We were struggling, there was no question about that," Gibbons added. "Hopefully, change is good. I'm still a big fan of these guys. I want to see 'em succeed and I want 'em to have a great year. If this helps ... well, I hope it works."

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2008
Bad Chemistry
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John McLaren blamed the Mariners woes on team in-fighting:

McLaren, speaking by telephone from his home in Peoria, Ariz., said tension and jealousy among players in the fractured clubhouse contributed to Seattle going from supposed contenders to the worst team in the majors in three months.

"A little divided, pitchers against hitters," he said, adding the team's season-long woes on offense caused the turmoil.

Starting pitcher Carlos Silva provided a glimpse of that on June 4 following his sixth consecutive loss.

"One thing in here is, I know everybody has to do their own job, but don't forget it's a team. A lot of people in here play for themselves," Silva said then. "Like, 'If I get my two hits, it's OK. That's my day. I made my day."'

Then again, any hitter would be free to question Silva's contributions. Signed to a $48 million contract last winter, Silva is 3-8 with a 5.79 ERA in 15 starts.

McLaren emphasized he wasn't pointing out the rift to deflect criticism from himself but offer advice to the players on how to turn around their flopping team.

"I think there is a little friction and tension in there, a little jealousy," McLaren said. "I think the players have to (fix) it on their own.

Obviously, John failed to heal the rift himself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Return of Gaston
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John Gibbons

The Blue Jays fired John Gibbons on Friday, June 20, 2008.
Photo: Icon SMI

On May 15, 1989, Cito Gaston took over a 12-24 Toronto Blue Jays team from Jimy Williams. The team would go 77-49 under Cito and win the AL East. That started an impressive run for the Blue Jays. From 1990 through 1993 they would finish first three times, second one and win back-to-back World Series, breaking a 14-year streak of no back-to-back winners. Toronto held the best winning percentage in the majors from the start of Cito's tenure to the end of 1993, .575, 445-329. The next closest was the Oakland Athletics at .550.

The Blue Jays were known for their offense, scoring 4.74 runs per game in that time. You can see the number of great players who batted for the Blue Jays under Gaston during their great run.

However, the next four season saw the Blue Jays fall on hard times. Note that he still had some really good names on the team, but near the end of his fourth losing season in a row, Gaston was fired. While Cito was supposed to be a good hitting coach, the development of Delgado and Green go against that.

OPSUnder GastonAfter Gaston
Green.792.906
Delgado.825.987

Also working against Cito was his idea that Olerud was a platoon player. 1993, The season John won the batting title was the only year Gaston played him in at least 140 games. After he left Toronto, from 1997 to 2003, Olerud appeared in over 150 games every season, hit .300 with a .407 OBA and a .471 slugging percentage.

Given a great veteran team in 1989 and through the 1993 season, Gaston was the perfect manager. As young talent came along, however, Cito didn't do a great job of getting the most out of those players. Right now, he inherits a set of veteran hitters. If history holds, I'd expect Cito to do a good job with this squad. He's not a rebuilding manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Gibbons Extinct
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I just received an email from Baseball Digest Daily reporting that John Gibbons will be relieved of his managerial duties this afternoon.

Update: According to SI, Cito Gaston takes over as the new manager. Too bad John Olerud's not around to get benched.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Next Mets Manager?
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The Mets are keeping Jerry Manuel for the rest of the season, but the job is up in the air after that. In a followup to the poll of dancers at Rick's Caberet that predicted Randolph's firing, the women were asked who should be the next manager of the Mets. Lonnie Hanover sent me the results:

Last night (Tuesday) there were over 50 Rick's Cabaret dancers working at the NYC club, and I posed the question to several of the girls. The list of names they suggested is quite random--I think that the girls have been influenced by reasons other than pure baseball; some may be on the list because the girls know them, some because they are good tippers. Some on the list have not been to the club. (You will have to come to the club and ask them yourself!)

MO VAUGHN
KEITH HERNANDEZ
LARRY BOWA
ROGER CEDENO
JASON GIAMBI
BILL MADLOCK
RON DARLING
LEE MAZZILLI
MIKE FETTERS
FRANK THOMAS
PHIL GARNER

and

***BOBBY VALENTINE: Rick's Girl Grace said that "Valentine would be similar to the Billy Martin thing, and my mom dated Billy Martin."

Grace appears to know her baseball history. How about Giambi as player-manager? He'd be an improvement over Delgado at first, and he should be a free agent at the end of the season. Would MLB let a former steroid user manage a team?

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:22 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Randolph Writes
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Willie Randolph gives his side of the firing in the New York Daily News. I like this bit:

"You don't have to say anything more, Omar," I said. "I came here to win, and if you don't feel I'm the guy to get that done, then it's your right to make a change. I'm eternally grateful for the opportunity you gave me. I want you to know that."

I stood up and shook his hand, told him I wished him and the team well. Then he handed me an envelope, a little parting gift, and told me to make sure I reviewed it with my agent, Ron Shapiro.

It was a copy of my Met contract that basically says I better not say anything detrimental about the team, or I might jeopardize the rest of the money I have coming to me.

Maybe that's why Omar didn't fire him Sunday night. He needed to get the copy printed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:00 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 19, 2008
McLaren's Record
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John McLaren

John McLaren
Photo: Icon SMI

John McLaren took over on July 2, 2007, less than a year ago. His 156 game stint as manager went well in the first half. The Mariners finished 43-41 under John in 2007. That's not as good as they played under Hargrove, but they won. His 2008 record of 25-47 is just awful, the worst in baseball.

The offense just didn't play well under McLaren. Among Mariners with at least 100 plate appearances playing for John, the highest OBA was .365 and the highest slugging percentage was .491, and both belong to the departed Jose Guillen. Six batters with at least 100 PA posted OBA below .300. If you want to blame Bavasi, McLaren was given poor hitters. If you want to blame McLaren, he's the guy who gave those hitters over 1600 at bats.

The pitching is more a mixed bag. Felix Hernandez thrived with McLaren at the helm. Erik Bedard didn't. No other starter has an ERA better than 4.84. With that kind of pitching and an offense that doesn't produce, a team ends up with a winning percentage under .400.

I tend to blame the GM in this case for putting a terrible team on the field. As far as I can tell, however, McLaren did nothing to get the most out of a weak squad. Maybe the new manager and GM will work better as a team to find a way to get this team winning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:29 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Fire Week Continues
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The Seattle Mariners completed their managerial purge with the firing of John McLaren.

The club will hold a press conference at 11:30 a.m. during which they expect to announce the club's future plans.

Sources say Jim Riggleman, Seattle Mariners' bench coach, will be named to replace McLaren.

Stay tuned for more. Notice, however, the Mariners do this on an off day in the morning (the time posted is Pacific) before the team makes a cross country trip.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ricciardi Dunn
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In a follow up to the previous post, J.P. Ricciardi appears to be losing it:

Ricciardi slammed Dunn on his Wednesday night phone-in show on The Fan 590, a Toronto radio station. His comments came after a caller suggested the Jays acquire Dunn, who is hitting .227 with 18 homers and 43 RBIs with the Reds.

"Do you know the guy doesn't really like baseball that much?" Ricciardi said to the caller. "Do you know the guy doesn't have a passion to play the game that much? How much do you know about the player?

"There's a reason why you're attracted to some players and there's a reason why you're not attracted to some players. I don't think you'd be very happy if we brought Adam Dunn here ...

"We've done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there's a reason why we don't want Adam Dunn. I don't want to get into specifics."

Ricciardi was generally sympathetic as callers vented following the Jays 5-4 loss to Milwaukee. But Ricciardi's demeanour changed when a caller mentioned Dunn as a hitter who might "save" the Jays' moribund offence.

"He's a lifetime .230, .240 hitter that strikes out a ton and hits home runs," Ricciardi said.

"Yes, he hits home runs, which none of the Toronto Blue Jays are doing," the caller replied.

That retort triggered Ricciardi's shot at Dunn as a player who "doesn't really like baseball that much."

I'm surprised no on mentioned Dunn's great OBA, .395 this year and .382 for his career. Adam gets on base and hits home runs, who cares how much he likes baseball! He does two things that add to offense very well. Ricciardi, should be all over players like Dunn, just like Billy Beane was happy to take in Frank Thomas.

MLB Fanhouse says it well:

As for Dunn's like of baseball, his lack of passion led him to miss all of 15 games over the last four seasons. He hit 166 home runs over that span so whatever his issues with average and whiffs, he's productive. Whatever his feelings about the game, I'd rather have a player who produces like Dunn and is indifferent toward baseball than Shannon Stewart, say, who may love the game but isn't very good at it.

I'm also reminded of my favorite Bill James quote:

I mean, I would never say that it was not important to have a team with a good attitude, but Christ, Sparky, there are millions of people in this country who have good attitudes, but there are only about 200 who can play a major-league brand of baseball, so which are you going to take? Sparky is so focused on all that attitude stuff that he looks at an Enos Cabell and he doesn't even see that the man can't play baseball. This we ballplayer, Sparky, can't play first, can't play third, can't hit, can't run and can't throw. So who cares what his attitude is?

J.P. is a huge disappointment. He's supposed to be a guy who understands what the numbers mean and act accordingly. He's done a great job building a pitching staff, but letting Frank Thomas go and going off like this on Adam Dunn makes me wonder if he understands how to build an offense. Maybe it's time for him to go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Hurting GM
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J.C. Bradbury takes a second look at what he calls, "the most obvious GM blunder that I have seen in some time."

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2008
30 Year Repeat
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My latest SportingNews.com column looks at the 30 year anniversary of the Billy Martin firing and the parallels it holds with the Mets and Randolph.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Thinking About GMs
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USS Mariner keeps working on the next team GM, listing likely people to make the initial cut.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Toxic Clubhouse
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Jose de Jesus Ortiz is amazed at how bad things are in the Astros clubhouse:

It seems it has gotten so bad that now even in the dugout some players are openly among themselves questioning moves made by Cecil Cooper and the pitching coach Dewey Robinson. Turns out, quite a few players openly questioned Friday night why a pinch runner wasn't used for Ty Wigginton in the ninth.

I wonder if there are ring leaders who could be traded away? If they turn out to be Oswalt and Berkman, then it's more likely Cooper will get the axe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2008
Reyes Apologizes?
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On the first play of the Mets game, Jose Reyes had a run in with Jerry Manuel over an injury. In the fourth inning, Reyes returned to the dugout and appeared to apologize to Jerry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
One Batter, One Controversy
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Jose Reyes singles leading off the first inning in Anaheim, but hurts his knee. Manuel and the trainer comes out to look at it, and Manuel decides Reyes should come out of the game. Jose argues. He wants to stay in the game. Manuel puts his arm gently around Jose's waist, trying to direct him to the dugout. Jose gets more animated, and finally heads for the dugout. He screams something, throws his helmet, and heads down the runway to the club house. It wasn't pleasant to watch, and I wonder if Manuel will fine Reyes for his antics. It's good Jose wanted to stay in the game, but it would be nice to listen to the new manager in his first game.

Update: Manuel went down into the club house between innings and hasn't come back to the dugout yet.

Update: The Angels are hitting Santana hard. Carlos Delgado just made an error at first to lead to the third run of the inning. The Angels lead 3-1 and are still batting in the first.

Update: Kotchman tries to steal second as Santana releases a pickoff throw to first. Reyes's replacement, Easley, doesn't cover second and Kotchman steals the bag easily. He doesn't score, but that's about the worst first inning Manuel could have imagined.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Manuel Speaks
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Jerry Manuel is now holding a news conference. He just said he would use the 2007 collapse to motivate the team. He said it might have been a mistake to put that in the past. He feels the players need to be reminded of that when they play poorly.

Update: Sandy Alomar will not be the third base coach. He'll become Manuel's bench coach. Alomar has come under criticism for his coaching at third this season.

Update: Jerry just talked very intelligently about base stealing, talking about balancing what's good for the team with the opportunity to get the players some good stats. He wants to teach the players to recognize the right situations to run.

Update: Manuel just said he's going to stay in his uniform at the end of the season, because Minaya mentioned he won't fire the manager while he's in his uniform.

Update: Manuel is coming off as very intelligent and thoughtful here. He just talked about how getting fired by the White Sox was a valuable experience for him as it forced him to examine the things he could have done better and learn from that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets News Conference
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Omar Minaya's news conference is starting. You can watch on ESPNews.

Update: Minaya says it was his decision alone.

Update: Minaya said he wanted to look Willie in the eye when he fired him. Funny, he was on the east coast at the time.

Update: It sounds like Omar just said he made up his mind Monday morning. Then why wait until two hours after the game?

Omar says he was concerned that the players were talking more about Randolph's status than the games.

Update: I guess Omar flied out last night, which is why it happened when it happened.

Update: Jerry Manuel will be the manager for the rest of the season.

Update: Omar is spinning now. He says it didn't happen at 3 in the morning, it happened at 11 at night. Omar should know he's always on New York time.

Update: To sum up, Omar says he told Randolph when Willie left New York that Omar would make a decision. Omar slept on it, and Monday morning decided to fire Willie. Minaya had to take care of logistics, then flew out to Anaheim so he could tell Willie personally. He didn't want to wait because he didn't want Randolph to hear it from a third source. So he told him as soon as he could after the game, and after Willie was out of uniform.

Buster Olney pointed out that reporters knew the move that were eventually made over the weekend. The question that raises is why Omar didn't sleep on it Saturday night and make the decision Sunday morning?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Peterson Classy
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The LoHud Mets Blog quotes Willie Randolph and Rick Peterson on their firings. Peterson was very gracious:

"I appreciated the opportunity (the Wilpons) gave me," Peterson said. "They welcomed me into their home, and sometimes homes go through renovations.

"I am the hardwood floor that is being ripped out and replaced with Tuscany tile. Hopefully, the Tuscany tile will do better than the hardwood tile. ... I am walking out of here in peace."

Both were more classy than the people who fired them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sealed Capsule?
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John Royal connects the dots between a few media stories about the Astros and wonders if there is a communications gap between players and management.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Embarrassed Fans
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The email coming in at MetsBlog.com indicates the firing of Willie Randolph caused great embarrassment to Mets fans.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Manny Musings
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Chico Harlan presents part of an interview with Manny Acta that reveals a lot about Manny's philosophy.

Well, I'm not perfect. Just because I have patience, that doesn't mean I can't lose my temper here and there. I don't claim... I have very good control of my emotions. I can control my emotions extremely well. That doesn't mean that I'm perfect, and I'm not here and there going to snap. Because I do, behind closed doors. When enough is enough, I do have my meetings with the guys. I don't go on an f-bomb tirade, because I don't believe in that. I believe I can get my point across in a calm, easy manner. But that doesn't mean I'm perfect. That doesn't mean I'll never be seen arguing or confronting somebody, because I've done it plenty of times in the past. It's just that nowadays I choose not to do it, because I've found out it doesn't get you anywhere.

Toward the end, he loses me a bit when he talks about the world being more negative and sarcastic. That's just typical old ballplayer remembering the good times without the bad. If the Nationals start winning, he'll hear more cheers than boos.

In general, however, reading through the interview made me like Acta even more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets Circus
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Buster Olney takes down the Mets front office:

The personnel meetings the Mets hold are said by participants to run on for hours, the discussion often turning circular and pointless. And maybe that's when it starts to happen in their organization when they get to the point where the staff members are so beaten down emotionally and intellectually that they don't have the ability to stand up and scream: Are you people crazy? Are you serious? Because this is a really bad idea -- no, no, wait, let's go one step further: It's really just flat-out nuts.

There's too much good stuff to quote, but it appears that the Mets wanted to fire Randolph sooner, but couldn't pull the trigger on holidays, Memorial Days and Father's Day. This, I believe, is Buster's most damaging paragraph:

When the Mets sputtered in April, the backstabbing began, with Randolph being undermined along the way. Words of Randolph's honest player evaluations in those staff meetings somehow made their way to the ears of players. That left the manager in a brutal position of trying to draw performance out of veterans who heard that behind closed doors the manager wasn't so sure if they had the right stuff anymore. Some on-field staff members doubted whether they could trust the front office.

If this is the case, why would any manager want to work for this team?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
There's No Place Like Home
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Mike Hargrove is managing semi-pro ball in Kansas.

"I figure there's two ways to give back - money and time," Hargrove said. "And time is a lot cheaper than money."

Part of giving back for Hargrove, a former first baseman with a lifetime .290 average and .396 on-base percentage, has been helping several of his players make small adjustments in their hitting approach during early batting practice.

"It's really satisfying to see the look of, it's not pleasure, but the light kind of comes on for them," Hargrove said. "They're enthusiastic about it. It's like, 'Oh, gee, this makes a difference.'

"And that's real satisfying. I don't care what level you're on - if you're working with people with any talent at all and you can help them and you see that look come across their face . . ."

Good for Grover. Maybe he'll rediscovered his dedication to the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Switching to Manuel
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The Mets fired Willie Randolph after a 9-6 win over the Angels:

The Mets have fired manager Willie Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson and first base coach Tom Nieto, the team announced shortly after 3 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday.

Bench coach Jerry Manuel has been named the team's interim manager, while Ken Oberkfell, Dan Warthen and Luis Aguayo will join the staff.

The announcement came despite the Mets' 9-6 victory against the Angels hours earlier, which lifted the team's record to 34-35. Randolph's tenure as the organization's 18th manager ends with a 302-253 record, the second-highest winning percentage in franchise history, trailing only Davey Johnson.

This seems like a rather classless act. The Mets allowed Randolph and his coaches to fly to the west coast, manage a game, then released them. I can imagine the decision was made and the team needed to get the new coaching staff in place, but it still reeks. Randolph deserved better than to be treated like that.

At least if Joe Torre wants to offer Willie a job, Randolph is already on the west coast.

Update: Mets players learned of the firing via text messaging from beat writers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2008
Randolph Pole
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Wille Randolph lost the support of a very important constituency:

Several NY Mets and NY Yankees can be considered "regulars," and the dancers at the club are unofficial experts on Baseball because they have met so many players from so many teams.

A Rick's dancer has been conducting a poll asking her fellow dancers if Mets Manager Willie Randolph should be let go. The "Dressing Room Poll" results are an approximation from the last week, with about 100 dancers saying that he should be fired, and only a handful saying that he should stay.

I wonder if this is what they hear from the players? Are the Mets going to this club and telling these women they'd like to see Randolph fired?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Lopping Heads
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As I was out getting my hair cut, the Mariners rolled their second head in a weak, Bill Bavasi.

The Seattle Mariners fired general manager Bill Bavasi on Monday, as the team lags with the worst record in baseball after starting the season with playoff hopes. Vice president/associate general manager Lee Pelekoudas will take over in his place.

"Change is in order," Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln said in a release. "We have determined new leadership is needed in the GM position. With a new leader will come a new plan and a new approach. A search will begin immediately for a permanent GM, and Lee will be a candidate for the position."

McLaren may be gone once a new GM steps in. I would assume whoever takes over permanently would want his own field crew running things.

The Mariners are 322-395 under Bavasi, the third worst record in the American League. In the five previous seasons, Seattle was 472-338, the third best record in the AL. I was not impressed when the Mariners hired Bavasi, and his record with the team did nothing to change that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2008
From Day-to-Day to Tenuous
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The Willie Randolph death watch continues. SI downgrades his status from day-to-day to tenuous.

A Mets official indicated that nothing was expected to be decided today regarding Randolph's status. But that doesn't preclude something from happening later this weekend. Front-office sources indicate his hold on the job is shaky, at best.

Should Randolph be fired, bench coach Jerry Manuel will take over, sources told SI.com.

So the Mets will likely win four or five in a row, saving Randoph's job for another couple of weeks until they lose four or five in a row. New York is winning just often enough to keep Willie's heart beating.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 10, 2008
Trading Youth
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6-4-2 Dosen't like what Ned Colletti is saying about the Dodgers young players. This morning on 1010XL, they asked me if I thought the Braves should go into rebuilding mode. I didn't think so, but I suggested that the best way to do that would be to trade Chipper Jones to the Dodgers for some of their prospects. Chipper is too much of an institution in Atlanta for that to happen, but it's the type of move that would great short term but lousy long term for the Dodgers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Minaya's Fault
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Adam Rubin in the New York Daily News lays the blame for the Mets poor performance at the feet of Omar Minaya:

The decline and fragility of veteran players has been compounded by one of the worst farm systems in baseball, which has left no safety net. When Alou and Marlon Anderson landed on the disabled list in rapid succession, Mets brass promoted third catcher Raul Casanova. When they finally dipped to the minors for a young player, they called up Double-A first baseman Nick Evans and asked him to play the outfield, a position he'd manned for only 17 games in his professional career. After a three-double debut in Colorado, Evans was in a 1-for-19 rut when he was sent back down. The Mets subsequently promoted 32-year-old former Phillie Abraham Nunez, who had been released from the Brewers' minor-league system, and who had batted just .133 in 13 games at Triple-A New Orleans. Regardless of anyone's opinion about Willie Randolph's job performance, and the manager certainly goes before Minaya, Randolph was handcuffed during San Diego's four-game weekend sweep that included three one-run games because his five-man bench consisted of unusable Ryan Church (post-concussion syndrome), two backup catchers, Nunez and the non-starter among Damion Easley and Fernando Tatis.

Compare that to the Red Sox front office, which simultaneously brought in quality free agents and rebuilt the farm system. It's no easy task, but it can be accomplished.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Leyland Keeps Tinkering
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Brandon Inge will now split the catching duties with Ivan Rodriguez, each starting every other game regardless of the opposing pitcher:

Leyland has said for weeks Inge will catch more. He hadn't said how much more until Monday.

Rodriguez started at catcher in all but one game on a recent nine-game West Coast trip. "I think that's one reason his average has fallen off," Leyland said of the workload.

Dating to the start of the West Coast trip, Rodriguez was hitting .114 with two RBIs over the past two weeks entering Monday.

The Tigers could probably carry Rodriguez's bat if Cabrera, Renteria and Granderson were hitting closer to their career averages.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 09, 2008
Seems Appropriate
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After a profanity laced tirade recently by manager John McLaren, the Mariners hire Lee Elia to replace Jeff Petland as hitting coach.

Elia, who accepted the role late Sunday, took over Pentland's duties before the Mariners' three-game series at Toronto that started Monday night. He will remain with the Mariners indefinitely, even though he had previously said he was not interested in a return to full-time coaching. Elia discussed the move with his family before accepting the role.

"I'm a Seattle Mariners guy," Elia said. "I've spent 10 lovely years here. "We're going through a little bit of a tough time right now. If we can tighten this thing up and I can be a part of it, I discussed it with my wife and daughters and it's not like I'm going away for 100 years. I'll be up there for a little while."

He certainly has his work cut out for him. Seattle ranks13th in the AL in runs per game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 05, 2008
Dropping the F-Bombs
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After a profanity laced tirade yesterday, Jerry Brewer believes John McLaren is gone:

McLaren's antics felt forced. The entire postgame was a strange, calculated event.

The Mariners' public-relations staff advised the media to go to the clubhouse immediately after Wednesday's 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. Normally, when the clubhouse opens, the manager speaks first and then the players talk. On this day, we were told to talk to the players, and in the surprise of the season, most all of them were sitting at their lockers.

It felt like a firing. Reliever Arthur Rhodes threw a tantrum, kicking and throwing gear. For most everyone else, there was an eerie silence, an anticipation of bad news.

And then it was time for McLaren to speak.

The nice man did his best Al Pacino impression before storming away without taking any questions.

Now, I have a firm belief about managers and coaches who go bonkers. I call it the Cuckoo Principle. When they go cuckoo, that's it. They're done. It works in almost every case, except for Guillen. The White Sox manager is incessantly cuckoo and blessed with the cushion of a World Series. But even his time will arrive soon.

An explosion is always proof that either you've lost the grip on your team, or you're struggling with the pressures of the job. McLaren had to be provoked to act out of character.

The Mariners are worse than even their toughest pre-season critics imagined. They're on a pace to lose 105 games. Is it McLaren's fault? If the job of the manager is to get the most out of his players, John is certainly not doing that. I agree with Jerry that the axe is likely to fall soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
June 02, 2008
Outfield Choice
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Bill Shaikin wonders why Mike Scioscia keeps playing Gary Matthews, Jr. over Juan Rivera.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ozzie Done?
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It looks to me like Ozzie Guillen might not be managing the next game for the Chicago White Sox.

"Just be ready because I expect movement Tuesday," Guillen said after the Sox went 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position in a loss capped by Gabe Gross' walk-off home run off Matt Thornton on an 0-2 count in the bottom of the 10th inning. "I expect (general manager) Kenny Williams to do something Tuesday, and if we don't do anything Tuesday, there are going to be a lot of lineup changes. That's all I'm going to say about the offense."

...

"It can be me. It can be (hitting coach) Greg Walker. It can be the players. It could be anybody," he said. "I'm sick and tired to watch this thing for a year and a half. I'm not protecting anybody anymore. [Bleep] it. If they can't get it done, Kenny should find someone to get it done."

Which brought this response from Williams:

"It's just not a good idea to throw your boss under the bus, especially when that boss has had your back as much as I have had his," Williams wrote in an e-mail. "I expect this team, if the leadership remains positive and the players stick together and continue to play hard, it will be a fun summer.

"The offense will begin to produce when collectively they say the hell with all the theories, stay loose, pick the pitch you want to hit and hit it hard. It will be nice to see them lighten up and have some fun."

I think there is a good chance Williams takes Guillen up on his idea that the manager should go. Guillen's tirade is one the that the manager and GM should have on the phone, not in public.

Update: Jay Mariotti is enjoying this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2008
Coaching Like CEOs
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HR World looks at ten coaches who would make great CEOs with examples of their best CEO trait.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Quote of the Day
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Via BBTF, John McLaren on the possibility of being fired (emphasis added):

"It's not a real good feeling knowing there's a target on our back," McLaren said Monday in a telephone interview. "I don't even read the computer anymore. Those blogs will eat you up, no matter what."

Now that I know he reads blogs, I'd like to see him keep managing. Secondly, it's very cool that blogs replaced newspapers in one cliche!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 26, 2008
More Willie
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Omar Minaya stated pretty emphatically that the Mets are going to keep Willie Randolph:

During a press conference at Shea Stadium this afternoon, Mets GM Omar Minaya told reporters, "Willie Randolph is our manager. There is no limbo. He's the manager...and I hope he is our manager for many years to come."

According to Minaya, the goal of today's meeting was to a) discuss Randolph's public comments from last week, and b) talk about the current state of the team and what they need to do to get better.

"We had a good, productive meeting," said Minaya, who noted they all share ideas on how best to make the team better, adding, "Two things, ownership is very disappointed in how the team is playing...They wanted to talk to Willie about those things...Also, about the comments, once we get beyond today, like today is over, those comments are over, and they felt it was important to talk to Willie about it, they've accepted his apology and we move on from there. It's over. Let's go on. It's over. Let's move forward now."

Right now the Mets are losing to the Marlins 6-3. If they get swept by Florida, I wonder what Omar will be saying then? I'm glad they are giving Willie a chance to win, but you wonder how low they'll let the team sink.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
May 22, 2008
Santana Seals It?
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Johan Santana loses to Tim Hudson 4-2. Santana, however, didn't pitch well. He struck out one over seven innings while allowing 12 hits. Chipper Jones picks up two hits and ends the night at .412.

The Braves sweep the Mets and now led New York by three games. While a two game sweep of the Yankees might have saved Randolph's job, a sweep by a division rival has to really hurt Willie's chances of keeping his job. How much time does he have left at this point?

Update: It's possible David Bush did the same thing to Ned Yost. He puts up a similar line to Santana, 5 innings, 9 hits, 0 walks and 1 strikeout. He allowed six runs, however. Maybe the Mets and Brewers should just trade managers!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 21, 2008
Randolph Apologizes
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Willie Randolph apologized for being a distraction, which really means he's sorry for making race an issue.

"I apologize to Mets ownership, SNY and my team for the unnecessary distraction I caused the last couple of days," Randolph said. "I shouldn't have said what I said. It was a mistake."

Can anyone else think of a time a black manager, coach or player had to apologize for bringing up race as a factor in decisions about him? This is also ominous:

Randolph said he reached out to Fred and Jeff Wilpon to communicate his remorse but hadn't been successful.

If Randolph wasn't on the hot seat before, he certainly is now.

Update: Some background at The Big Lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:10 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2008
Yost Toast?
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Badger Blogger gets inside information that Ned Yost will be fired today and replaced by Ted Simmons. Stay tuned.

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What Happened to the Plan?
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Richard Griffin levels some fair criticism at J.P. Ricciardi:

The truth is Ricciardi has stumbled badly. The initial misstep involved his promise of rebuilding the farm first. The second involved proceeding with the acquisition of high-priced talent even though his homegrowns weren't ready to lead.

The whole plan wasn't done as he laid it out and it might ultimately mean that his total tenure will end up being seven years and gone after this season, the exact amount of rope that his predecessor Gord Ash was given by Ted Rogers before he ran out of time.

Consider Ricciardi's six-year won-lost record heading into '08. From 2002-07, his teams were 481-490, a win percentage of .495. If you compare that to Ash's final six seasons, 485-487, a win percentage of .499, where's the improvement?

Griffin also notes that in 2008, there are as many Gord Ash drafted players representing the core of the team as Ricciardi drafted players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
May 17, 2008
South Side Purge
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It seems some Latin American scouts for the White Sox were not playing by the rules:

"This is an investigation we brought to Major League Baseball as part of our reorganization in the Dominican Republic," Williams said. "We now have a new facility, complete with state-of-the art equipment and facilities. We're trying to achieve greater results down there. We wanted to be sure our operations were consistent with what we stand for. Obviously, they were not in this investigation and we've made some changes accordingly.

"As to the what and the why, I'm not at liberty to expound on that."

Also fired was David Wilder, the director of player personnel.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2008
Will Torre Take Him In?
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Peter Abraham does reports bad news concerning Willie Randolph:

Willie Randolph may not last the weekend as manager of the Mets. The question at this point may not be whether he goes, it's who they can find to replace him.

I'd say Davey Johnson, but I don't think he'll take a job until after the Olympics. Maybe Ken Macha deserves another chance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:51 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Long Term Deals
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Squawking Baseball posts a nice piece on the pros and cons of signing players long term. The cons are mostly on the player side of things. While clubs are controlling costs with younger players, they may actually be ratcheting up free agent salaries:

But there's another dynamic that is in play here: as more and more players sign these deals, the supply of premium players on the free agent market will continue to drop. That, combined with the growing war chests many teams have already put together, will create excess demand for whatever talent ends up on the open market.

In fact, this has likely already happened in the past few years. Teams have a certain amount of money they can spend on payroll; as revenues rise and each win becomes more valuable, those budgets increase. With a limited supply of free agents, there will inevitably be high demand for some mediocre players (i.e. Carlos Silva).

The real question is this: at what point does the potential reward of becoming a free agent outweigh the risks of turning down $30+ million when you have nothing in the bank? If supply continues to dwindle, free agency may simply become too rational a choice to pass up.

I just had a conversation with Terry Bross on the show The Positive Side of Sports. Terry, former pitcher, is upset with these youngsters because they're costing others money. By not going to arbitration, they're not ratcheting up salaries as much. I understand the union point of view on that, and that most of these players would make a lot more money going year-to-year until they reach free agency. Turning down a lifetime of security, however, is very difficult to pass up. The owners, through hiring better GMs, have finally figured this out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2008
Coaches Needed?
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Gaslamp Ball wonders if teams really need coaches:

This allows me to, again, bring up something that's always bothered me. Jbox and Jonny Dub (and sometimes Kev) and I debate this all the time. Basically, it's always bothered me that baseball, unlike every other professional team sport in the world, apparently does not actually have a need for their coaches. Or at the very least, there's the idea that baseball players should be able to "figure it out" on their own.

When the team's not hitting, the hitting coach gets fired, but there's always a vocal argument that firing the hitting coach doesn't actually do anything because the hitters have to know what they're doing on their own. The base coaches get a little more credit, but we've seen players routinely miss (ignore) signs and signals. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, but couldn't the players play base coach just as well and save some money? There, I saved some money for the Padres. Make the guys who made the last outs play base coach. We've all done it. It's easy.

There's something to be said for this approach. David Mamet found he didn't need a director:

I wondered and read, and it occurred to me that I knew the answer, and here it is: We just seem to. How do I know? From experience. I referred to my own--take away the director from the staged play and what do you get? Usually a diminution of strife, a shorter rehearsal period, and a better production.

The director, generally, does not cause strife, but his or her presence impels the actors to direct (and manufacture) claims designed to appeal to Authority--that is, to set aside the original goal (staging a play for the audience) and indulge in politics, the purpose of which may be to gain status and influence outside the ostensible goal of the endeavor.

Maybe teams don't need a manager either. Make the players responsible to each other. The seven guys standing behind the pitcher likely have a better sense of when he's tired than the manager in the dugout. It might take some time to make strategic decisions on bunts and hit and runs, but those sorts of things could be discussed before the game or a series. Or the players could just decide that one or two of them have the best strategic sense and leave those particular decisions to those individuals.

There would be no more excuse that things were the managers fault. Players who didn't get with the program would be fired instead. In a way it would be a throwback to the early days of baseball.

Of course, it won't happen. The managers position evolved for a reason, probably so players could concentrate on hitting, pitching and defense, leaving the worries about strategy and press relations to someone else. Still, it might be fun to see what would happen. Maybe the next time a manager is fired late in a season, the team will just let the players take over for a month to see how it works.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
May 10, 2008
Blowing the Game
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Adam writes on last night's Cards-Brewers game, one in walk off fashion by the Brewers:

I was perusing the Cards-Brewers play-by-play to see how Isringhausen blew another save tonight and I noticed two things.

** 1 - The unwritten law that managers live by of going to their closer in save situations automatically. Even though Ryan Franklin went 1-2-3 in the 8th, retiring Cameron, Braun and Fielder (the 2-3-4 hitters) on 5 pitches, Larussa gives the ball to Izzy for the 9th, who promptly blew his 5th save and raised his ERA to 7.47.

** 2 - From Cameron's pop out to open the 8th inning thru Bill Hall's flyout for the 2nd out of the 9th, the Cardinals recorded 5 outs on 5 pitches. Each of the next 4 batters swung at and were retired on the first pitch. Seemed kind of odd, but who knows, maybe it happens all the time!!

Something I've talked about before is the more often a manager changes pitchers, the more likely he's going to find one having a bad day. If a reliever is brought in and pitches well, and hasn't reached a credible pitch limit, why not let him continue? Franklin did the heavy lifting, facing Cameron, Braun and Fielder in the eighth. The rest of the lineup should have been a bit easier. On top of that, Franklin is pitching better than Izzy this season. It's amazing to me that a manager who thinks outside the box on lineup construction is sticky to the conventional wisdom on relievers.

Not really. Tony invented the conventional wisdom with the Athletics, so why should he be wrong now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2008
On His Way Out
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John McLaren gets the dreaded vote of confidence.

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May 06, 2008
Short Attention Span
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Richard Griffin criticizes the Blue Jays management for not giving players enough time to produce:

Yesterday's questionable personnel move was the knee-jerk reaction that sent 24-year-old Adam Lind to warm the bench for now and the foreseeable future, a mere 10 days after being named starting left fielder. It appears to be another chapter in the Jays' impatient history of, "What have you done for me yesterday?" And it's not even a matter of how well his replacement Shannon Stewart plays in his stead.

Lind was promoted to play left, the same week Frank Thomas was released, with Matt Stairs and Stewart to platoon at DH. A lefthanded-hitting prospect, Lind posted a .365 average at Triple-A Syracuse with 16 RBIs in 18 games and was deemed ready for primetime. But 19 failed at-bats later, he's out and Stewart is in as the everyday guy in left batting second in the order. Patience?

"We have to think about putting the best team out there," manager John Gibbons said, matter-of-factly. "He's just not getting any hits right now."

One for nineteen with one walk isn't a good start, but the Jays should know that's a really small sample size. He has nothing to prove at the minor league level. It's not like anyone else on the team is producing all that much. Give him 200 at bats before benching him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 01, 2008
Sabean Counter
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William Gum gives Brian Sabean a very positive review, noting the wealth he created for the owner of the Giants.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:44 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2008
Sour on Sabean
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Blastings! Thrillage starts a series ranking the general managers from worst to best, and starts with Brian Sabean. I think the analysis is spot on:

But how much credit can one give to an executive who over his 11-year reign has done nothing to ensure long-term competitiveness for his team? Sabean is a very unique general manager in that his entire job has been to assemble role players around a guy who is quite possibly the best baseball player ever: Barry Bonds. That Barry Bonds was so astoundingly good that he could carry a roster of aging scrubs long past their primes, is a testament to Bonds' supreme ability and unnatural career path, not Sabean's skill as a general manager. How could he have known that Bonds, who was already turning 32 in Sabean's first year as general manager, would sustain an amazing level of production through age 35, and then instead of slowly declining, become a significantly better player than he had ever been for four more years, through age 39? Sabean could not have anticipated this; no one could. He was just lucky that Bonds' insane career path masked a continually flawed and uninspired player acquisition and roster construction strategy. It is no accident that when Bonds lost most of 2005 to injury, the Giants finished under .500 for the first time since 1996.

I look forward to the rest of the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mix and Match
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Evan Grant notes the Rangers have a very strange coaching staff, as Ron Washington was forced to retain coaches hired by two former managers:

These are all strong baseball minds with strong backgrounds, but they've also been thrown together in a small lockerroom and asked to work together. It's kind of like Big Brother only without Julie Chen.

It's not too much of a leap to think the same kind tensions and frustrations that exist on a reality TV show also exist in the Rangers' clubhouse. Put the best people together in such a situation and you test them. People struggle to communicate with one another, and it makes for great TV. Coaches and manager struggle to communicate with each other and with the club, and it makes for a train wreck.

If players see a coaching staff that is struggling to work together, how do you think it's going to impact their play?

Brief answer: Whatever it is, it's not good.

Oh, and when changes come, it's usually the manager and coaches who get changed, not he players.

So here they are a month into the season and the coaching staff has found itself in a leaky lifeboat searching for a place to land. They have two choices: Start rowing together or sink to the bottom.

There is definitely something dysfunctional about the Texas team. This is going to end badly for a number of people, I'm afraid.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 29, 2008
Fewer Pitchers, More Strategy
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With the acquisition of Frank Thomas, the Athletes are carrying fourteen position players. Bob Geren is making the most of his flexibility:

The A's pitching staff has made it possible, with starters getting deep into games and the bullpen working efficiently. Meanwhile, manager Bob Geren is making the most of having an extra position player, employing almost National League-type strategy. He used three pinch hitters Saturday, and Sunday, Geren sent out two pinch-runners at the same time, which is unusual.

"It was like a line change in hockey," reliever Andrew Brown said. "Next it will be a flying V."

The Athletics are third in the AL in runs per game at 4.96. Now they're using a good pitching staff to leverage their offense with an extra bench player. It's just another example of a well run organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 28, 2008
Cordero Worth It?
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Here's a criticism of Wayne Krivsky I haven't heard. He wasted money on Francisco Cordero. The Reds' closer picked up his fourth save in four opportunities tonight and is pitching well in general. However, he only has four saves. He's a perfect example of how little a great closer can do if the team can't get him the lead. Until a team can get a game to the ninth inning with a lead on a regular basis, should a GM spend a lot of money for one relief pitcher, or should he spend it on hitters or starters who make the closer necessary?

Correction: Had the wrong Cordero.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Game of Telephone
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It seems Ryan Freel is suffering from miscommunication with Dusty Baker. Dusty thinks Ryan doesn't want to play every day, but Ryan denies he said that. It seems like this should be pretty easy to resolve.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 26, 2008
Fire Gibbons
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Joe Posnanski makes a very good case for firing John Gibbons. I have to agree.

I've never seen a more offensive walk than Friday night. Never. Toronto trailed the Royals 5-4 in the eighth inning. The Blue Jays trailed 5-4 because that gutty shortostop David Eckstein dropped a double-play throw from the pitcher. No matter. They trailed 5-4, and the Royals had runners on second and third, and there was still one out, and Tony Pena Jr. was at the plate. I mentioned this in the last blog post, I believe -- I like Tony Pena a lot. Great kid. Got a lot of the energy and joy for baseball his old man has. And he's a terrific fielder. And he's smart enough to adjust, at least I think so. But facts is facts: Tony Pena Jr., at this moment and time, is the worst everyday Major League hitter I've ever seen. I mean the worst. There are numbers to back this up -- .148/.172/.164 would be three of those numbers -- but this is truly a case where seeing is believing. His swing is now longer than the Bill Clinton autobiography. He starts it on a Tuesday, it ends on a Thursday. It lasts longer than that "Deal or No Deal" show. It's a long, long swing.

And with that sort of swing, he's an out. That's all. An automatic out. Every so often when a pitcher lets his mind wander, Pena Jr. will fights off a bad pitch, bloop a hit the other way, but it is almost always a mistake pitch. I assume (and hope) that he will make those adjustments I mentioned, shorten the swing, punch a few balls into gaps, and all that. But right now, at this moment, if you don't make a mistake to Tony Pena Jr., he's out. Period.

And John Gibbons, after pitcher Scott Downs fell behind Pena 2-0 count, had him walked.

Going back to my earlier post on Ricciardi, one of the things he's done very poorly is hire managers. Why Moneyball GMs don't hire Dave Johnson is beyond me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2008
More on Krivsky
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John Fay spoke with Bob Castellini about the Wayne Krivsky fiiring:

"We're not winning. We haven't started well. It was time."

Fay adds this:

I think the thing that did Krivsky in was contracts. Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, Juan Castro. I've also heard that he and Walt Jocketty were not getting along great.

A news conference will start in a few minutes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Krivsky Creamed
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The Reds fired general manager Wayne Krivsky today. I can't say I'm surprised, but I also think he's getting a bit of a raw deal. With the young talent in the Reds pitching staff, and more to come with Homer Bailey, this team was a year and a couple of hitters away from contending. They're not even near the worst team in the NL, let alone the majors. I wonder if there is something deeper than just the performance of the team.

Walt Jocketty takes over. I guess this means the Reds will see more veterans in their last useful season playing for the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:12 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Another View on Diversity
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SportsAgentBlog takes a look at how agents and scouts are affecting diversity in baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2008
Slump? What Slump?
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The latest in a long line of Dusty Baker has no clue posts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Defuser
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Brian Cashman defuses the Joba Chamberlain situation. A couple of years ago I saw a Q&A with Cashman and someone asked how he was able to work for George Steinbrenner. He said that Steinbrenner was the only boss he knew, so he thought this was normal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 21, 2008
Steinbrenner Wants Joba Starting
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Hank Steinbrenner is putting pressure on the Yankees again:

"I want him as a starter and so does everyone else, including him, and that is what we are working toward and we need him there now," Steinbrenner said Sunday by telephone. "There is no question about it, you don't have a guy with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and keep him as a setup guy. You just don't do that. You have to be an idiot to do that."

Steinbrenner said the Yankees were working on easing Chamberlain into the rotation, but he would not be specific on a timetable. The Yankees' brain trust had wanted to limit Chamberlain's innings by having him spend at least part of the season in the bullpen. "The mistake was already made last year switching him to the bullpen out of panic or whatever," Steinbrenner said. "I had no say in it last year and I wouldn't have allowed it. That was done last year, so now we have to catch up. It has to be done on a schedule so we don't rush him."

One thing I loved about George in his later years was that he wasn't afraid to put pressure on anyone in the organization, but he allowed his outbursts to be tempered later by the logic of the baseball people running the game. So I don't have a real problem with Hank spouting off like this. First, Hal seems to have some control in the tempering department. Second, this keeps the team on their toes.

Personally, I agree with him without the part about calling people idiots. I'd much rather see a good pitcher going seven innings in a game than one, and the more of those you put in the rotation, the less you need pitchers like Joba setting up the closer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:07 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 20, 2008
Spinning Age
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The Athletics front office, in the wake of the Miguel Tejada birthday change, tries to make it seem like age doesn't matter:

In other words, Tejada's age wasn't a big deal to the A's, except possibly when they signed him in 1993 as a teen out of the Dominican. He was much more signable at 17 than 19.

As to letting Tejada leave as a free agent, general manager Billy Beane said, "For us, losing players is not a function of age, but a function of the size of contract."

This is a team that calculated the monetary value of every ball in play. This is a team that knows the worth of every minor league player in North America. The know the exact value of age, and that certainly goes into their evaluation of what is the correct size of a contract. Nice try, Mr. Beane.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 19, 2008
Big Benching
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Josh Alpers suggests that Frank Thomas' benching may have more to do with his contract than his performance:

The Big Hurt has an option for $10 million in 2009 which vests after 304 more plate appearances this season. The Jays shouldn't be too surprised by his slow start. Over his long career, Thomas's April numbers are well below his work in other months.

It's also odd given the overall lack of punch in the Toronto lineup. They are slugging but .372 as a whole and have only eight homers from non-Thomas players. Shaking things up is fine but without a better option on the roster it seems pretty clear that the Jays are letting finances dictate their lineup.

While Thomas hasn't hit that well he has draw eleven walks so at least his OBA is over .300. He's not hitting great, but he hasn't lost his batting eye.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 17, 2008
Forbes Valuations
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The Forbes ratings came out last night, and baseball looks like it's in pretty good shape. Only three teams, the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are losing money via operations. Things are really upside down, since the biggest profits accrue to the Marlins and Nationals. The winners lose and the losers win. What a great sport!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Justice on Leyland
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Richard Justice explains the Tigers turnaround came from a well timed chewing out by Jim Leyland. It's something the manager learned to do the right way:

When he was a young whippersnapper, he routinely closed the clubhouse door in Pittsburgh and let his guys have it. Somewhere along the way, he figured out that if a manager screams every night, no one listens.

Leyland eventually got it. He got a lot of other things. No manager is better at unifying a clubhouse and making all 25 players feel part of things.

There's also a time to cuss everyone out. If nothing else, Leyland probably felt a lot better. After Sunday's 11-0 loss to the White Sox, he did just that. Reporters standing outside the clubhouse could hear him.

"I'm not going to get into what I said," he said. "That's nobody's business. There was one thing that sticks out to me right now that's going on, and that was the straw that broke the camel's back with me. And that's why I'm (ticked) off. It's glaring."

He may have been upset that some of his hitters weren't having competitive at-bats. That's the thing scouts following the Tigers have noticed.

There's a balancing point between Larry Bowa and Willie Randolph. It's a lot closer to Willie, and I believe Mets fans would like to see Randolph cross that line once in a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 14, 2008
Quote of the Day
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Ron Gardenhire on slumping hitters breaking helmets:

"It's not the helmet's fault. It's that head inside the helmet."
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Randolph and the Mets
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Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog.com comments on the way Willie Randolph handles the team.

...in my view, this group of players lack accountability...and they lack shame...this, not anger, is what is missing...

...instead, if a player is not focused, making mistakes and costing the team an opportunity, willie should sit him down - like he did to Jose Reyes last summer...this is not a long-term solution, of course...the Mets need their best players in the lineup if they intend to win a pennant...however, it's not enough to just have people in the lineup physically, these players must play hard and perform while on the field...if, instead, they would rather waltz around and cash a pay check, that is not going to hack it...so, from what i understand, having talked with former players, if they are shamed by getting benched, if they are pulled from a game, called out a bit in the media, etc, this will have an impact...yelling at them like children will only make them more disengaged, but embarrassing them in front of their peers could help...

...i think willie took his first shot with this sort of method last night, with his public comments and frustration after last night's game...phase two will be making an example out of some one, assuming it gets to that point...i trust that it will not...

...i realize people get on willie, and rightfully so...i have a hard time with this, because, while i do not think he is passive, as most like to write, i do think he suffers from a bad case of tunnel vision and he is very, very trusting in his players...maybe to a fault...however, i like his style of baseball, i.e., aggressive base running, having a killer mentality and playing strong defense...my fear, though, is that, while the team may have some serious, high-priced talent, it may not be the type of talent best suited for willie's style...and so, what we may be witnessing is a conflict of style playing out on the field, in the locker room and in the press...

There are two things here that might end up getting Willie fired. Given the way the Mets tanked last year, they should be coming out of the gate as crisp as possible. There's absolutely no excuse for them to lose games due to sloppy play. That rightly goes back to the managerial skills of Randolph.

Secondly, if this team is not suited to Willie's style, then he shouldn't be managing the team. A good manager will adjust his style to fit the players on the team. If you have a low power, high speed team, then little ball and emphasizing the running game makes sense. If you have a bunch of power hitter who lumber around the bases, you wait for the three-run homer. It's not good to force a style on a team that can't execute that type of baseball. It's Randolph's job to figure out what type of team he has and manage to their strengths.

Frankly, as much as I'm a fan of Randolph's, I don't think he's long for the Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
April 13, 2008
Manny Must be a 1.000 Hitter
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I really can't get over how much crap Joe Girardi is taking for pitching to Manny Ramirez on Saturday. It was a perfectly logical decision that didn't work out. Nice to see that Joe took the questioning well.

It is things like this, however, that keep some mangers from going outside the box. I've asked players in the past about a certain strategy that made sense and why managers don't use it, and I've always heard that they don't want to deal with the press if it goes wrong. In any given plate appearance, the odds are Girardi's decision is the right one. If he walks Manny and the next batter gets a hit, however, no one complains. It becomes management to avoid bad press.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
April 11, 2008
Keeping One on Schedule
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I like this move by Dusty Baker:

It will be Josh Fogg's turn to pitch after the off day, but with the way Fogg pitched Wednesday against the Brewers (five innings, four hits, no walks, one earned run, three strikeouts), Baker is inclined not to skip him.

But he also wants to keep Aaron Harang on his normal four days of rest, meaning Harang pitches Tuesday in Chicago, followed by Fogg on six days of rest, then Edinson Volquez on five days of rest.

If teams do this throughout the season, they can get a couple of more starts out of their number one starter. That's two less starts from pitchers not as good, which should be better for the team in the long run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 09, 2008
The Torre Factor
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My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at how teams change strategy when Joe Torre takes over.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 07, 2008
Stretching Joba
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I have to disagree with Jack Curry:

The decision Sunday that was probably even easier for Girardi was summoning Joba Chamberlain during a tense spot in the seventh. It is getting harder and harder to imagine the Yankees moving Chamberlain from a setup role to be a starter this season.

It makes perfect sense if the Yankees want Joba to start to give him longer bullpen assignments. At some point, I would not be surprised to see Joba get three-inning saves. He'll need the endurance to go into the rotation.

What will make the decision difficult is a lack of success by other relievers, not Chamberlain's own success.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
April 03, 2008
Dusty Makes No Sense
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Via the FanHouse, Dusty Baker on the walk-off home run. I didn't realize that he had Encarnacion try to sacrifice twice in that plate appearance:

"You can't let him swing in that situation," Baker said. "He was struggling. I told (coach Chris Speier), 'I kind of hope he doesn't get it down so can hit a three-run homer, and he hit a three-run homer."

Sparky Anderson used to drive me crazy. I'd hear him interviewed and was convinced the man knew nothing about baseball. However, the results on the field indicated something different. After a while, I just stopped listening to what Spark said and paid attention to what he accomplished.

I'm at that point with Dusty now. I'm no longer going to listen to crazy remarks like this. I'll just watch for the results, which for his career are good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching to the Weather
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Bruce Bochy and Joe Torre tried to align their pitchers to the weather last night, holding their starters until later in the game. Unfortunately, you can't fool mother nature. Just after Lincecum and Billingsley entered the game, a 74 minute rain delay ensued. Bochy, unlike Torre, sent his young starter back to the mound.

In a stunning and risky move involving the young pitcher they call The Franchise, Bochy allowed Lincecum to pitch one inning then return to a cold, damp mound after sitting through the 74-minute delay. Even older, established pitchers rarely do that.

Lincecum threw 84 pitches over four innings, allowing one run and striking out four to get the win. What a turnabout from last season, when the Giants babied Lincecum so he would not overtax his valuable right arm.

Bochy defended the decision, saying, "If we thought we were going to hurt his arm, we wouldn't have done it."

Bochy conferred with Lincecum, pitching coach Dave Righetti and bullpen coach Mark Gardner during the delay. Lincecum reminded them he often sat through rain delays during high school and college games in Washington. But even Lincecum later admitted he had not returned after a delay as long as Wednesday's.

"That," he said, "was a first for me."

Lincecum went on to single and score the winning run. We'll have to wait to see if there are any long term implications to this move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 01, 2008
The Face of a Manager
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Steve Wang and I spoke on the same panel at the AAAS conference in February. I knew Alan Schwarz wanted to write an article on Wang's work, and here it is. Steve uses faces as a visual tool to show managers tendencies. You can see the faces here. Randomly, Steve chose head width as the parameter for gaining the platoon advantage. Bruce Bochy comes out with a big head by this measure, just like in real life. Joe Maddon looks appropriately sad, given his record with the Rays.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Warehouse Sale?
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Inside Charm City hears the Orioles might be sold after this season:

We are hearing that a group of backers including politicians, investors and other businessmen may be pushing for an arrangement unique for Major League Baseball if the team is indeed sold. That arrangement currently does exist in the National Football League. Some sort of community-based group ownership like the arrangement the Green Bay Packers have is something that many in the area believe could help turn the team's flagging attendance around and help improve the product on the field as well. We wouldn't be surprised to hear that Nestor Aparicio of WNST is involved behind the scenes in such a move. There will likely be all sorts of other potential buyers coming out between now and the end of the long dismal season.

Angelos would be selling a a relatively low point. Given the success of the team through the 1990s, there's a huge upside for whoever purchases the franchise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
March 31, 2008
I Want Candy
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Joe Girardi removed the ice cream and candy from the Yankees clubhouse and replaced them with healthy treats.

Mussina jokingly said he planned to find the wayward freezer and install it in the empty locker next to his. "The candy will go on the top shelf," he said. "I can't play without some candy."

Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, being children, also were distressed.

The good new for the beat writers is that whenever we need a scoop, we can bribe the players with M&Ms.

A scoop for a scoop sounds like a good deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 29, 2008
Defending Girardi
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Matt Treanor defends Joe Girardi's handling of the Marlins pitching staff:

But it is a subject that has not died easily. Matt Treanor, Marlins current backup catcher for Girardi and now, said, "You know I am going to get into trouble even talking about this stuff." The implication was the front office would not like it.

However, Treanor, first baseman Mike Jacobs and second baseman Dan Uggla all praised Girardi's season managing the Marlins, describing him as passionate for the game, caring for the players and -- yes -- protective of the young pitchers.

"I don't think it was cause and effect," Treanor said. "I never saw anything that anyone was abused on the mound. Joe is not that type of guy."

Joe was the manager and the pitchers got hurt. Pitchers, unfortunately, do get hurt. We'll see how he does with the new crop of youngsters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 28, 2008
I Met Him in a Swamp Down in Dagobah
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Tyler Kepner finds an important similarity between Joe Girardi and Yoda:

Yoda's most famous quote, of course, was: "Do, or do not. There is no try." Turns out Girardi believes the same thing.

"He expects you to get the job done," Treanor said. "One time in spring training, somebody said, 'I'm going to try to do this.' I remember his comment was, 'I can get a truck driver to try.'

"So basically that means, you're out there to do it, by whatever means you have to do it."

There you have it, the distilled wisdom of the Yankees' new manager, straight from the playbook of a three-fingered puppet.

That's enough to link to a Weird Al video:

I saw Al perform this live at the old Jonathan Swift's in Cambridge, MA in 1983. He opened with this song, and really rocked. He still has the same guitar, bass and drummer he had then.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Ranking the Managers
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The Wall Street Journal ranks Ron Gardenhire as the best manager in baseball. The study ranks Scioscia, Francona and Torre 14th, 16th and 17th respectively. Subjectively, I would not rank those three that low, and I'm not sure how many people would. It would be neat if someone took these 20 managers and asked people to rank them 1-20 to see how they did. My guess is that this study missed something about why these managers have been so successful over the last decade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Turn up the Noise!
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Dugout Central relays a great story they heard John Franco talk about on radio. Bobby Valentine used the noise from the planes flying over Shea to assist in picking off runners at second. It's a good example of how Valentine could be a very clever manager.

Correction: Sorry, I wrote Julio but I meant John.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
March 26, 2008
Gomez Critical
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Former manager Preston Gomez was seriously injured in a car accident:

Preston Gomez, the beloved, 84-year-old special assistant to the Angels general manager, is in critical condition at a Palm Springs hospital this morning after being hit by a pick-up truck at a gas station in Blythe.

Gomez, on his way home from spring training, had stopped at a Chevron station at about 6 a.m. this morning and told his wife he was going to take a walk to stretch his legs.

According to Detective Sgt. Jeff Wade of the Blythe Police Department, Gomez "went around the pumps into the next aisle and right in front of a large pick-up truck that was driving up to re-fuel."

Gomez, Wade said, "suffered pretty major head injuries" and is believed to have suffered internal bleeding. He was taken to a local hospital, stabilized, and then air-lifted to the Desert Regional Medical Center in Palm Springs at about 10 a.m.

I remember him as the first manager of the Padres. I hope he pulls through.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 24, 2008
Is it Dusty, or is it Memorex?
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Redleg Nation corrects Dusty Baker's faulty memory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Reverse Psychology
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Aaron Gleeman proposes an interesting theory on who Ron Gardenhire praises and who he criticizes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 23, 2008
Keep or Trade?
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Baseball Hot Corner discusses the balance the Yankees need to achieve between keeping prospects and trading them away. New York did make those kinds of deals during the Cashman era, the most memorable for me being the Ricky Ledee trade. They trade Ledee, Zach Day and Jake Westbrook for Dave Justice. Looking back, it was probably a bad trade. That deal, however, filled an important need for the Yankees in 2000. Ledee never became a regular, Day had a couple of good seasons, the Yankees would have needed to wait four years for Westbrook to be valuable. Sometimes winning now is more important than winning in the future, however, and Justice provided a boost in 2000, the last year the Yankees won the World Series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 20, 2008
Who's on Second?
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The White Sox are just a mess at second base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 19, 2008
Waive Bye-Bye
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Voros McCracken levels criticism at Kenny Williams for waiving Juan Uribe. However, we don't know if the waviers can be pulled back yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Helping the Union
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I suspect David Forst's comments on Bonds will help the MLBPA's investigation of collusion against Barry Bonds:

Keri: Barry Bonds! Left field is probably the A's weakest position right now, depending on which way you decide to go at the start of the season. He's in the Bay Area already, the A's are a team that prides itself on performance analysis, and Bonds still projects to be a productive hitter. Is there just an industry-wide philosophy that says, "Wink, wink, we're not going to do this"?

Forst: You expect me to answer this on the record? [laughs]

Keri: On the record, off the record, whatever you want to do.

Forst: On the record, this team has committed to young players.

You can read the whole interview at ESPN.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:42 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
March 16, 2008
Ryan to the Rescue
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Mike Lawson sends this article on how the Rangers are using Nolan Ryan to try to bring back the fans:

There are pockets of doubting fans, hesitant to air their feelings publicly, who feel that Ryan's ascendancy is nothing more than a default-driven publicity stunt casting Ryan as a living, breathing mascot. But for the most part, everyone from Zonk (you can almost hear his drumbeat getting louder) to Charley Pride (you can almost hear the echoes from his annual spring training clubhouse performance) is buying what Nolan is selling. Even if the team remains the pathetic, penny-pinching Rangers. Even if it recycles the "You Could Use Some Baseball" slogan. Even if this is another season of prospects being groomed, veterans traded to contenders for even more prospects and a finish closer to fourth place than first.

Regardless, Ryan's touch is essential to pull the Rangers out of their spiral toward utter irrelevance. It was 10 seasons ago that Texas won 95 games and drew almost 3 million fans. But in this millennium, it has finished above .500 only once and last year attracted only 2.3 million. Nothing will make the boss grasp for the past like losing 23 percent of his customers.

It's a very good article about the positives and negatives of the team, and what Ryan will face as president as he tries to fix three decades of poor play in Texas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 13, 2008
The Lamp's Out
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Mark Lamping resigns as president of the Cardinals to manage the building of the new football stadium for the Giants and Jets.

After a career as prominent sports-marketing executive at Anheuser-Busch, Lamping was hired as Cardinals president on Sept. 1, 1994.

It was a troubling time for the franchise. The 1994 Major League Baseball season was shut down because of a labor disagreement, and the Cardinals were slumping on the field.

Lamping played a substantial role in the Cardinals' reversal of fortune. In 1995, Lamping hired Walt Jocketty as general manager, and Jocketty soon hired Tony La Russa as manager. That partnership was responsible for seven trips to the postseason over a 12-year stretch, and the prizes included the 2004 National League pennant and the 2006 World Series title.

Bill DeWitt III, son of the Cardinals owner, takes over the job.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 11, 2008
The Other Side of Dusty
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Redleg Nation uses Dusty Baker's evaluation of Homer Bailey to point out Baker's strength as a manager, handling people.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 10, 2008
Turn Toward the Dark Side
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Flotsam Media explains why Dusty Baker hates the walk. :-)

In training, I recently told young Joey Votto to give into his aggression. I wanted him to feel the power of swinging the bat, and letting the fear of a called third strike take control. Feed your anger, I told him. Feel the power course through your veins.

Incredibly, the young man disagreed with me, saying that he preferred an approach based on patience. I find his lack of faith disturbing.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
A Few Good Women
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The Texas Rangers held ball girl tryouts, and they were quite rigourous:

Major leaguers will be hitting the balls they'll be fielding, so they can't be afraid to sacrifice their bodies for the sport.

During the Sunday tryouts the players bounded and lunged across the emerald grass, stopping line drives. Then, with determined faces, they each whizzed the ball back across the field.

"To catch and throw well, that's a must," said Rangers announcer Chuck Morgan, who helped supervise the tryouts. "And you've got to pay attention to whether the ball's fair or foul."

The right candidate must be able to think quickly off the field as well.

The team is expanding the ball girl program, now in its second year, to include a more visible marketing role, including making special appearances at promotional events.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
March 09, 2008
Are the Reds Looking for a Coach?
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Maybe Dusty Baker should hire MIckey Hatcher?

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 07, 2008
Long Term Brewers
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The Brewers owner in looking to lock up Fielder and others to long term contracts:

Attanasio said the club will pursue long-term deals with many of the young players on his roster. He said those talks will be held in private, however, to avoid having the negotiations play out in the media.

"Whether it's Prince or any of the players, we're interested in signing all of our younger players to longer-term deals," said Attanasio. "At the same time, the players have to be interested in doing it. They have to make individual decisions.

"We've decided not to comment on where we are in the process. If we don't conclude any talks, we won't announce that we didn't sign anybody. We don't want to have a daily posting."

That's good to hear. There's lots of upside to signing youngsters to long term deals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 06, 2008
Public Reprimand
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Trey Hillman very publicly reminded his team how to run the bases after their win today:

Hillman had seen too many base-running mistakes earlier in the game.

His solution was to gather the entire team at the plate for what amounted to a 15-minute lecture in full view of the Diamondbacks and the departing crowd of 5,539. Hillman then spent another 10 minutes in discussion with veteran second baseman Mark Grudzielanek near third base before initiating his postgame news conference at the dugout.

"I was just talking about running the bases," Hillman told reporters. "We had a couple of mistakes today. I'm not displeased. We won the ballgame.

"We've got to run the bases the right way all of the time. And today, we had a couple of mistakes. We could have been in a better position."

It looks like he got through to the players:

Players also said Hillman indicated the problems were an accumulation of things over the last few days. If so, that seems odd because he made a point repeatedly to compliment the club's improving fundamentals after victories Tuesday and Wednesday over the Rockies and Giants.

If nothing else, the on-field meeting put players on notice that Hillman is willing to embarrass them in public as a penalty for sloppy play.

"At least we got it done in spring training," outfielder David DeJesus said. "Now we know. We'll take it from here, and we'll change it. He won't need to do that anymore."

Trey is going to keep this team on their toes.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 05, 2008
Signing Scoop
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Congratulations to the Reds who realized they could sign a sixteen year old Dominican star without waiting for the official signing period to start. Juan Duran is already 6 feet 6 inches and 190 pounds, and is being compared to Juan Gonzalez and Vlad Guerrero. Here's the loophole they exploited:

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

Duran's birthday is Sept. 2, 1991, making him a 16-year-old who seemed to have barely missed the cutoff point to sign during last year's international signing period, and it appeared he would have to wait until the commencement of the 2008 period to sign. However, the rules state that for an international player to be eligible to sign, he must be 16 years old at the time of the signing and turn 17 years old by either Sept. 1 or by the end of his first professional season.


Players signed during the international signing period are not eligible to play that same year, so their first professional season comes the following calendar year. For example, a player signed during the 2007 international signing period would have his first professional season be the 2008 season.

The Reds realized that they could sign Duran if they assigned him to their 2008 roster in Billings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where the regular season ends on Sept. 5. Since Duran will turn 17 before the end of the 2008 Pioneer League season, he was eligible to sign before the 2008 international signing period and was eligible to sign back on his birthday last year.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:32 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 03, 2008
Team Goals
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Playing off Sunday's post about ownership winning early, or not at all, John Moores sets the 2008 goal for the Padres:

Asked if the goal this year is the franchise's first World Series championship, Moores gave a measured response.

"The goal is to play meaningful games in September," he said. "Unfortunately for us, and fortunately, the West is quite competitive. I think there are going to be four very competitive clubs, and we are one of them. I don't want to leave anybody out, but I feel pretty good about us."

Now, Padres fans, wouldn't you rather have an owner who wants to win the World Series more than anything?

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
March 02, 2008
How to Lose a Player in Three Years
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The Brewers managed to upset one of their star players:

The Milwaukee Brewers renewed the slugger's deal for $670,000 on Sunday after finishing third in NL MVP voting last season.

"I'm not happy about it at all," Fielder said. "The fact I've had to be renewed two years in a row, I'm not happy about it because there's a lot of guys who have the same amount of time that I do who have done a lot less and are getting paid a lot more.

"But my time is going to come. It's going to come quick, too."

Going to arbitration after this season, Fielder has every reason to try for a monster year. Given what Ryan Howard received, Milwaukee should be ready to see their payroll increase significantly next season. The question is, will they patch this up, or continue to upset Fielder so much he leaves as soon as he's able to become a free agent? Milwaukee should study Pittsburgh and Barry Bonds and see if they want to go down that road.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
March 01, 2008
Old Farts
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Two great quotes from Brian Cashman in one paragraph:

"Brett Gardner is not your typical Yankee-profile type of player,'' he said.

"We're trying to break that profile to some degree because there's more to this game than hitting for power.

"We think he could be a Juan Pierre who takes a walk. Here's a guy who can steal bases; he can get on base; he plays the short game. We need athleticism like that, especially when you have a bunch of these old farts filling the roster out. Those young burst-of-energy, athletic guys really stand out on a team like ours.''

Juan Pierre who takes a walk. Wouldn't that be Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson?

Bunch of old farts. It was a little over ten years ago that I realized I was an old fart. I was in Cleveland for the World Series with ESPN, and most of the production team was out at a club at The Flats. I was trying to have a conversation with the other person from our group in their 30s, and we both decided the music was too loud. Since it didn't seem to bother any one in their 20s, we came to the conclusion we were old farts, and have called each other that ever since.

It's good to see Cashman putting his players on notice. It seems to me that the veterans on the Yankees aren't being treated with kid gloves anymore.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:16 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Acta-Mania
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Capitol Punishment cites another reason to love Manny Acta. It's like he grew up reading Bill James and Baseball Prospectus. If and when this team starts spending money on players, Manny is going to be very tough to beat. Is he this generations Davey Johnson?

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 29, 2008
Bowa's Head
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Jon Weisman makes a number of good points about Larry Bowa's refusal to wear a helmet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Coaching Restrictions
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In addition to wearing helmets, the majors are going to enforce the coaching box boundaries:

Starting this year, first- and third-base coaches must not cross the lines toward home plate or the field until batted balls pass them. Only then can they take up other spots to guide runners.

Third-base coaches routinely stand much closer to the plate than the lines permit, trying to get a better look at where outfielders are positioned.

Maybe they can enforce the batter's box while they're at it. Here's a rule I'd like to see: Any player who wipes out the back line of the batter's box is ejected from the game, and the grounds crew comes out between innings to redraw the line.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2008
The Forgotten GM
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Joe Posnanski, in his unique style, wonders why Bob Howsam isn't in the Hall of Fame. It sort of goes with this Roy White post.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 27, 2008
Hill Drills
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The more I read about Trey Hillman, the more I like him:

"OBP," he said. "It's a no-brainer. OBP, then drive them in. On-base percentage before average. Take your walks because you are aggressively disciplined in the strike zone. But take your walks.

"If they're going to pitch around you, and try to get you to bite, be disciplined enough to take your walk."

The Royals ranked 13th among 14 AL teams last year in walks and on-base percentage.

But on top of that, Hillman is really concerned about how to drive those runs in. Without big boppers on the team, he's drilling players on situational hitting. He's working on improving their bunting, their squeeze plays, what to do in a hit and run situation. On top of that, it looks like he knows when to call for these strategies:

"When am I going to ask you to bunt?" Hillman questioned. "If you're not bunting for a base hit, when am I going to ask you to bunt? Generally, it will be the seventh, eighth or ninth inning.

"That's when you have the setup man or the closer in the game. The point is, the stuff you're facing is nasty. It's going to be high-velocity with sink, slide, split or a serious hammer.

"Those guys aren't easy to bunt off of. You'd better be fundamentally sound and plan on getting the ball down in the right location. Simplify your technique."

He knows when he needs these kinds of plays, and he wants to make sure his batters (and his fielders) are prepared to handle these situations.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 25, 2008
MacPhail's #2
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Via David Gerstman, Andy McPhail pulled an assistant from the commissioner's office:

Seeking to add a young mind and a fresh perspective to the Orioles' front office, Andy MacPhail announced today that he has hired Matt Klentak as director of baseball operations.

Klentak will assist MacPhail, the Orioles' president of baseball operations, with scouting, player development, contract negotiations and the overall construction of the team's major league roster. He'll start his responsibilities on March 4.

"I think he is a very bright, capable young man who has demonstrated a good feel for the game," MacPhail said. "I think our philosophies are compatible and I think he's going to bring a little different point of view, which every organization can use. He's highly recommended from a lot of people in this game that I have a lot of respect for."

He's a Dartmouth graduate who played baseball for the Green. He was profiled in 2006 by Pursue the Passion:

At Dartmouth College, Matt played baseball all four years and was the team captain his senior year. He graduated in 2002 with a degree in economics. When he graduated he was debating on what to do with his life. He had been debating this question since his junior year in college, when he spent a term abroad in France. He wrote down everything that he liked to do, one at a time, and came up with a list consisting of travel, baseball, math, working with people and business. After looking over this list endless times Matt came to the conclusion that he'd like to work in baseball. So he started his journey to get into the business by using a baseball connection to write a letter requesting an informational interview.

Someone who lists baseball and math as two of the top three things he likes to do sounds sabermetrically inclined.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 24, 2008
Francs for Francona
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Gordon Edes posts the details of Terry Francona's contract. The contract will average $4 million a year:

The $4 million mark is a significant one, placing Francona just behind Joe Torre of the Dodgers (a reported 3 years, $13 million) at the highest level of the managerial salary scale.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cloggin'
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Dusty Baker remains concerned about players with good OBAs clogging the bases. Of course, I think he's really concerned about too many walks without hits leaving people on base (I don't agree with that either). Players like Ichrio manage a high OBA without walking very much. It doesn't matter how a batter gets on, just that he does it often.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pirates Opportunity
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for a sabermetrically savvy computer programmer. It sounds like a great job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The New Royals Quiz
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This seems appropriate for Dan Quisenberry's old team:

When sliding feet-first into a base, is your front foot straight up or sideways?

Before a game starts, what are the first two things a player should check?

Stumped? Don't fret. When first-base coach Rusty Kuntz asked the Kansas City Royals to take his quiz on outfield play and baserunning fundamentals, there were quite a few "who didn't have a clue."

But that was better than the first player Kuntz quizzed a couple of years ago in Pittsburgh.

"Out of 50 questions, the guy got five correct," Kuntz said. "And this was a starting player in the major leagues, a very well-known guy. I thought, `Oh, my gosh. Oh, my goodness.'"

So Kuntz came up with a detailed list of written questions and tried them out on a number of players. The results were encouraging.

"By the end of spring training, I gave the same player the same test, along with a bunch of other guys, and he got every one of them right," Kuntz said. "And I noticed that during the year, he responded quicker to certain situations. I thought if you can do that for outfield play, why not throw in some baserunning fundamentals?"

It's going to be an interesting summer in Kansas City. I don't think they'll contend, but I bet they play better than people expect.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Terry and the Red Sox
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The Red Sox signed Terry Francona through 2011 with club options for two more years. That's as it should be. The man led Boston to two World Series championships and handles the clubhouse deftly. At .578, the Red Sox have the second best winning percentage in the major leagues since 2004, twelve games behind the Yankees.

Congratulations, Terry!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 23, 2008
Voting for Votto
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Redleg Nation likes what Dusty Baker is saying about Joey Votto.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 21, 2008
Big Deal for DBacks Front Office
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The Diamondbacks signed Josh Byrnes and Derrick Hall to long term deals, bringing stability to the front office for another eight years. I've liked what Josh has done since taking over the team, building a good young squad while keeping costs down. AZ Snakepit likes the president's accessibility:

Good to see Derrick Hall will be sticking around too, and committing long-term to the future. He has proven to be very approachable and 'out there', along with the fans in the trenches. Most regular attendees have seen him, or have a story of meeting him; mine is when he showed up, unannounced, at a DBBP get-together before a game, and just hung out with us for a bit. Can't really imagine Garigiola or Colangelo doing that. Kinda smart too to keep on the side of the die-hards who bleed Sedona Red. :-)
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 20, 2008
More West than East
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Joe Posnanski reports on Trey Hillman's training camp:

So, sure, it only makes sense to wonder how Hillman will bring East and West together as manager of the Kansas City Royals. Will he ask players to bow? Will he put them through the famously rigid training methods of Japanese baseball? Sushi?

Well, it's only been one day, but it seems pretty clear already that the answer is: None of the above. The Royals' camp on Tuesday looked, more or less, like every other spring training camp. There were a few subtle differences, of course, which we'll get to in a moment. But the most striking part of the first day of Camp Trey is how familiar it all looked. Players hit, fielded, pitched. That's all. They stayed on the field about the same length of time as years past. They did many of the same drills. If you didn't know any better, this camp would have looked like Buddy Bell's, Joe Torre's or Bobby Cox's.

Hillman is not trying to revolutionize American baseball. "I'm not that smart," he says.

Still there are things Hillman is doing differently, from having pitchers throw with dummies standing in for batters to having his fielders play catch more. I can't wait to see if it makes a difference.

By the way, my daughter is in Japan on a school trip, and I'm told she bought me a Nippon Ham Fighters hat while in Sapporo. I'll post a picture when she returns.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:22 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Howard Hearing
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Ryan Howard and the Phillies likely go to arbitration today, barring a last minute settlement. Jim Salisbury talks to three arbitration veterans to get an idea of what goes on in a hearing:

Arbitration hearings have been portrayed as battlefields, but all three men say that is overblown. Just as many are civil as are contentious.

Still, the player must be prepared to hear things he might not like. Howard might hear about his record 199 strikeouts last season. He might hear about his batting average dropping 45 points. He might hear that the team believes his salary should be comparable to that of Miguel Cabrera, who needed to win his case to get $7.4 million last season.

"In every case, the player will be looked at critically, and weaknesses will be spoken about," agent No. 1 said. "You have to prepare the player for that. Whatever can be looked up statistically - even what you didn't do as well as the year before - you should expect to hear.

"These are very competitive people - not just the players, but the lawyers, too. The object is to win. You're not going to hold back valid criticism. But it can be presented softly or harshly."

Probably the best way for Ryan to approach the hearing is that no matter what happens, he's going to be a rich man.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 19, 2008
Three Years of Discomfort
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Joe Torre talks about the end of his career with the Yankees:

His situation began to sour, he reflected, after his team blew a lead of three games to none to the archrival Red Sox in the 2004 American League Championship Series.

"The last 3 years were difficult. I think it started probably with losing to the Red Sox. Because that becomes a mortal sin," he said. "And even though the Red Sox were obviously a very good team that year, we got lucky early. They didn't play well. Then we had two leads in Games 4 and 5 we couldn't hold onto.

"Since that time, it may be a little too strong to say [the Yankees] wanted to make a change. But for me it wasn't as comfortable. It could have been self-induced. I don't know. Last season was very uncomfortable, especially with the bad start we had. There were a lot of questions and stories I had to address.

"I'm sure it took its toll on me, but when you walk into the clubhouse and all of a sudden the players aren't sure what they should say, what they shouldn't say, your coaching staff, that made it doubly uncomfortable for me. I just think over the last few years it was gradually getting to the point of not being a helluva lot of fun. The baseball was still fun, but aside from that . . . "

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
February 18, 2008
Non Person
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Jaybird's Jottings notes an omission from the San Francisco Giants 50th anniversary celebration.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tommy Returns
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Dodger Thoughts seems to be just a tad worried about Tommy Lasorda managing the Dodgers for a week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 17, 2008
Bochy Building
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Ray Ratto doesn't hold out much hope for the Giants, but he points out Bochy has the experience for this rebuilding:

"This isn't like if we were in the American League, where you have some teams that can go out and win the 10-9 game when their pitching isn't right," he said. "That's why we have the sense of optimism that this can happen in a year. You just see what Arizona did, and you realize that maybe we're not that far away."

Yeah, maybe. But probably not. Rebuilds are painful, especially ones that have been deferred as long as this one. The Giants are probably closer to what you think of them than what Bochy thinks of them, but as much as he was hired for a year like this, there is one other thing to consider.

He was also hired for the year after a year like this one. Bruce Bochy won't be the reason the Giants get better, when they do, or even if, and he doesn't pretend that he is. Bochy can, however, say that having done this before, he is as suited to easing the transition from Barry Bonds' backup band to a contender as any manager in baseball.

If the pitching turns out to be great, the Giants don't need to build a great offense to contend, just a pretty good one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 16, 2008
Regressing
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The Marlins are one of the few baseball teams to employee cheerleaders, but at least they understood the concept. Now they're sending the pep squad in the same direction as their won-lost record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 13, 2008
The New GM
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I agree with Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke. Neal Huntington says all the right things in this story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 12, 2008
Adaptable Manager
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I like this answer by Joe Girardi:

C- How much did you follow how Tom Coughlin, at the age of 61, needed to change his approach as the Giants' coach and ended up winning a Super Bowl?

G- "Someone asked me what type of manager I would be. I said I'm a manager that's willing to adapt to the people that are around me and the type of players you have. You can't necessarily have a regimented way that you play because the parts may not fit the picture. So you have to adapt your managerial style to the parts that you have."
"I think one of the jobs of a manager is make sure it's an enjoyable place to work every day, even during the bad times. You have to find a way to make it enjoyable. Sometimes, you got to do things a little different. Sometimes, you got to be a little off the wall, as off the wall as I can be."

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 11, 2008
Signing Rockies
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Drew Bienhoff wonders which of Hawpe and Atkins the Rockies should sign long term (of if they should sign both). He presents pros and cons for the two players, but I think the correct question should be, why should the Rockies sign either of them? Atkins seasonal age in 2008 in 28, Hawpe is 29. They each are controlled by the Rockies for three more years, taking them through their primes. Most importantly, both are poor defensive players, ranking the worst among regulars at their positions according to PMR. That means in three years they may both be more useful as designated hitters than position players. That doesn't work for the Rockies.

Colorado's concern should be developing talent to replace both, then letting them move on via free agency when they get the chance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 10, 2008
MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference Summary
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My congratulations go out to the staff of the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference held Saturday at the Cambridge campus. They provided a star studded set of panels covering everything from owning a team to inventing new fantasy games. I especially liked Wyc Grousbeck's keynote address. He encouraged the business school students to go into a business that they love. He noted that business analysts would not have recommended he buy the Celtics. They would have valued the team between $298 million and $302 million dollars, far short of the $360 million Wyc needed to buy the franchise. Wyc, however, knew the cash flow of the club, and also knew how much he could raise in capital and how much in debt. His quick figuring told him the cash flow could cover the debt, so he bought the franchise he loved. As someone who also decided to do what he enjoyed the most, I have to agree with Wyc that it's a wonderful experience.

I was surprised that all four GMs who took part in the Defending the Title Panel gave so much weight to character. The question arose due to the various scandals that hit the major sports. However, these team architects seemed more interested in character in terms of how the player will function with the team than in the player's personal life. They want someone who is hard working and focused.

I was impressed with the cross pollination that goes on between leagues. Brian Burke of the Ducks attended the orientation session the Red Sox hold to prepare their prospects for the major leagues. Without saying what he saw, Burke called his secretary before heading back to Anaheim to make changes to the Ducks procedures. The club of GMs extends beyond their individual sports.

The most lively panel was the final one on improving the game. Bill James and John Walsh got into a lively discussion about how much broadcasters should control when the games start, both making good points. Rick Carlisle, however, appeared to be a bit out of his league. Bill was wondering if leagues really needs a strong franchise in New York, and pointed to the NBA as an argument against that. Rick categorically stated that basketball does need a strong franchise in the city. Bill asked how Rick knew that, and he said, "I just know." The audiences reaction was one of laughter. Daryl Morey noted that they were at MIT and you have to prove what you know.

Randy Vataha was quite provocative in his ideas that you need salary caps for all personnel involved in the sport. As someone who is very free market, I object to that on principle, and I was a bit surprised that in a large group of MBA students, no one challenged him on that.

Once again, the staff did a fantastic job of organizing everything from the food to the venue. I look forward to the third in the series.

Other panels covered:

P.S. For the Mets fans out there, the analytics panel was asked who was the one player that would want to start a ballclub, and Bill James named David Wright.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:42 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 09, 2008
MIT Sports Business Conference, Improving the Game
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The final feature panel is looking at how to improve leagues:

  • Rick Carlisle, ESPN
  • Bill James
  • John Walsh, ESPN
  • Randy Vataha, Game Plan, LLC
  • Daryl Morey, Houston Rockets
ImprovingGame.JPG

Improving the Game Panel
Photo: David Pinto, Baseball Musings

Update: Bill James and John Walsh had a good argument about baseball playoff games ending after midnight. John argued it was good for fans, since it maximizes the number of people who can watch games. He pointed out it's 9:30 on the west coast, which also has a large population.

Update: Randy Vataha wants to cap everything. He wants a cap on GM salaries, coaches, everything. Morey asks about the opposite, and brings up the premier league.

Update: Bill is talking about middle relievers. Using five relievers may be good for the club in the sense of winning the game, but it's boring for the sport. Should the league be able to step in and change the rules to prevent that?

Update: Carlisle wants to increase the diameter of the rim by 1/2 inch to increase scoring in the NBA.

Update: Vataha says third down is what makes football great for television. You need an interesting moment every so often.

Update: Sal Baxamusa, sitting next to me, raises a good point. Is the franchise the team, or is the franchise the league with subsets? That impacts how you think about salary caps.

Update: John Walsh asks about the secondary market for tickets. Morey says it's a failure by management to price their tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:24 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MIT Sports Business Conference, Baseball Analytics Panel
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The next panel brings in the stats heavy weights:

  • Joe Bohringer, Arizona Diamondbacks scout
  • Bill James, Red Sox
  • Vince Gennaro, Author, "Diamond Dollars"
  • Tom Tippett, Red Sox
  • Roy Neyer, ESPN, Moderator
BaseballAnalytics.JPG

Baseball Analytics Panel
Photo: David Pinto, Baseball Musings

Update: The panelists are talking about how they went from outsiders to insiders. Tom Tippett says he missed the Moneyball revolution. So many of his friends didn't get insider jobs before Beane that he stopped trying. He ended up getting brought into the Red Sox organization by Bill James.

Joe Bohringer came out of the Sloan School here at MIT, started as an intern with the Yankees, and over time became very good at writing scouting reports.

Update: Tippett says the Red Sox are trying to get health data and scouting data into databases. He's trying to add value to that data.

Update: The Red Sox now have play by play, pitch and ball in play data down to the rookie league level.

Update: Gennaro tries to help teams figure out how much money a player will bring in to a team.

Update: Bohringer cherry picks the analytics he uses. For more veteran players, he uses numbers extensively. For the 18 year old Dominican player, he uses his eyes more to write the report.

Update; Bohringer says scouts are moving away from BA, HR, RBI to OBA and Slugging percentage, ERA+ and other stats.

Update: Neyer asks what would you like to know about baseball that you don't know. Tippett wants to improve predictions of major league performance from minor league performance, as well as predicting the career arc of a player.

Gennaro wants to quantify the value a marquee player brings to a team.

Update: Bill James wants to collect data on character. The Red Sox worry about that whenever they trade a player. We don't have any way of dealing with this in a organized fashion. We don't know how to collect that data.

Update: Bohringer wants a better way of evaluating players. It's much more inexact than we think. He says, "We're not only trying to be more right, we're trying to be less wrong."

Update: James is talking about what scouts see that normal fans can't. He didn't realize that until he started working for the Red Sox.

Update: The panel agrees that a lot more work needs to be done on injury risk.

Update: Bill thinks the increase in batting numbers may be driven by improvements in bat technology. Should players own the bats? Or should the league?

Update: Bill James says the Red Sox can't get careless with young talent because the Hanley Ramirez trade worked out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MIT Sports Business Conference, Defending the Title
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This is the featured panel of the day:

  • R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs
  • Bill Polian, Indianapolis Colts
  • Brian Burke, Anaheim Ducks
  • Jed Hoyer, Boston Red Sox
  • Peter Gammons, Moderator
DefendingTitle.JPG

Defending the Title Panel
Photo: David Pinto, Baseball Musings

Update: Gammons starts off asking about turnover. Pat Gillick once said to repeat, you have to turn over 25% of your roster. Jed Hoyer hopes not, since they're bringing back the same team. But Hockey and Football are forced to turn over roster due to the salary cap.

Update: Bill Polian has plenty of praise for the Red Sox, the way they bond with the fans and handle the way players leave the team. The Colts are trying to copy that.

Update: Peter asks about the character issue. Polian says it's very important. He wants focused players, not bothered by off-field issues. People with problems living life tend not to be team focused. They also have problems processing information, which is very important on the Colts. Public image is secondary.

With the Red Sox, Hoyer says they focus on character in the draft, looking for players who can handle Boston.

Update: Buford believes this generation coming through is a very poorly raised generation in terms of character. Since players are in college less, they are less mature when they get to the NBA.

Update: Burke looks for a hard working players in terms of character.

Update: Burke doesn't want twenty leaders on his team. That doesn't work.

Update: There's a discussion about depth. The hockey and football teams feel it's important down to the last man.

Update: Hoyer is talking about the short off season, adding an extra month and starting early in Japan. It's tougher for players to be durable in those conditions. He praises the Yankees of the late 1990s for surviving that every year.

Update: Gammons asks about the pressures in the other markets. Buford says the Spurs are always below high school football. :-)

Update: Hoyer says they write term papers on every more they want to make so they can defend those moves to ownership.

Update: Peter asks if the other sports do management development like the Red Sox. The Spurs say they do, as well as the Colts. The Colts have an intern program, and they've kept four of them over the years, creating jobs for two.

Update: Peter asks about the advantage of being in a big market with a salary cap. Burke makes a great point that the Montreal Canadiens can spend more on practice facilities, put more scouts in the field, and make every thing else better for the organization.

Update: Polian talked about learning from older managers as he came up through the ranks, and as he learns from his younger managers now.

Update: Hoyer says when the Red Sox start thinking like a big market team, that's when they'll fall. They'll be better off thinking like a small market team, trying to save money with young players.

Update: These teams all study other teams from other sports, and learn from each other.

Update: Hoyer says the draft is broken. He wants to fix it with slotting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:32 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MIT, Venue and Stadium Management
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The Venue and Stadium Management panel features four guests:

  • Tim McManus, AECOM
  • Dennis Robinson, NJSEA
  • John Wentzell, President, TD Banknorth Garden
  • Tim Romani Romani Group, built new Comiskey

Charles Wu of Baynorth Capital is the moderator.

VenuePanel.JPG

Speakers
Photo: David Pinto, Baseball Musings

Update: Sites are very important. Wu brings up San Diego and Baltimore and examples of changing an entire neighborhood. Dennis Robinson makes the point that the facilities are just one part of bigger redevelopment projects.

Update: They're talking about who should drive design in developing a stadium. There's a good story about architects wanting to do glass atriums, but there are security risks to that, and huge window washing costs!

Update: Ben Watson of the Patriots is at the conference. He's traveled to China promoting football.

BenWatson.JPG

Ben Watson
Photo: David Pinto, Baseball Musings

There's a good bit about arenas becoming revenue obsolete. LED signage in 1999 made a number of newer arenas obsolete in that regard.

Update: Sal Baxamusa is also live blogging the conference.

Update: How do you make stadiums green? The best way is to pick a dirty site and clean it up. Venues, by their very nature, are difficult to make green just because you have a large number of people traveling by car to the event.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference
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The conference is about to get underway with a keynote address by Wyc Grousbeck, the Boston Celtics CEO.

Update: Here's Wyc:

Wyc Grousbeck

Wyc Grousbeck
Photo: David Pinto, Baseball Musings

Update: Grousbeck is talking about why we love sports. We love the excitement, the conflict.

He uses Ted Williams last home run as an example of the excitement of fans being part of history. The fans cheered for minutes to try to get Williams to come out, and he didn't (he read the Updike New Yorker piece). Williams never came out, but the fans knew they were part of a special moment.

Update: His second point is on decision making. Wyc wants to use data and analytics to help decision making, but he doesn't want to hide behind the data in making decisions.

Update: His decision to buy Celtics was an emotional one with 90 seconds of analysis. The cash flow worked, so he paid more for the team so the deal would go through.

Update: Wyc's third point is talking about putting this team together.


  1. Hiring Danny Ainge because he was a team player. They didn't have any data on him as a GM, but they liked the way he would work with them.

  2. Extended Paul Pierce. Wants him to be a Celtic for life. Another emotional decision.

  3. Trading for Ray Allen, knowing they could trade for Garnett later. A data driven decision.

Data is a tool, but dosn't drive decision making.

Update: People at the peak of their performance aren't driven by the money. They love what they're doing. He gives a good example of Kevin Garnett showing up early for an optional practice, missing two shots in a row, then running suicide sprints as self-inflicted punishment.

Update: A very good keynote. I agree with his final point that you should do what you love. It worked for me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 08, 2008
The Business of Sports
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I'll be covering the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference tomorrow in Cambridge, MA. You can read my summary of last year's conference here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 06, 2008
Changing the Culture
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The Pittsburgh Post Gazette looks at Frank Coonelly's todo list. He sounds like he's on the right track in turning the team around, but I don't expect it to happen quickly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Ryan Rangers
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The Rangers are about to announce Nolan Ryan as their next president.

What has yet to be determined is whether Ryan will have oversight responsibilities over the club's baseball operation. No team president since Tom Schieffer left the club has had those responsibilities. Rangers owner Tom Hicks had set up his power structure to have both the general manager and president report directly to him, but kept their responsibilities separate.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:41 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Building for Another
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Joel Sherman notes Brian Cashman might be building the Yankees team for another GM:

Cashman has just one year left on his contract. No one would be surprised if he returned again, that his love for the job and his long history with the Steinbrenner family produce another contract. But no one around the Yankees - or really around baseball - would be surprised either if VP of scouting Damon Oppenheimer, like Reese, graduates from heading a draft room to directing the big room. Oppenheimer's outstanding recent drafts have provided much of the backbone to support Cashman's vision of restoring youth and financial sanity to the Yankees roster.

But youth usually takes time. Eli Manning, after all, needed most of his four seasons to navigate from promise to promised land. Cashman is savvy enough to know that no general lessons are going to be learned from that journey. It isn't like New York fans and the New York media will find a collective patience with Hughes or Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in memory of how, just a month ago, most of the tri-state region had rendered a final, merciless report on the bust that was Eli Manning.

"There is going to be growing pains," Cashman said.

It's actually rather sad that the Yankees can't take a step back and fully reload and rebuild. The poor teams of the early 1990s set up their success later that decade. Of course, after all these years it seems strange to me that teams like the Yankees and Braves who make the playoffs every year can be considered failures for not winning the World Series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
February 04, 2008
Personal Problems
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Now we know about Don Mattingly's personal problems. I agree with Jon:

I wish each of them both the best in trying to recover from their troubles.

The signing of Girardi by the Yankees turns out to be the right move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Ryan Talk Express
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Evan Grant looks at the pros and cons of hiring Nolan Ryan as president of the Rangers:

For Ryan, the most attractive part of rejoining the Rangers would be the ability to have a bigger say on baseball issues. And I'm not sure that would happen. The structure Tom Hicks has used since Schieffer left the club is for the GM and the president to report directly to him, not to have one report to the other. If Ryan and Jon Daniels both report directly to Hicks, what does the owner do the first time they have a difference in opinion on a baseball issue? And if he sides with one, would human nature not leave the other one feeling a little powerless?

Of course, Hicks could always change the club's flow chart to a more traditional alignment in which Daniels reported to the president. But after years of inner turmoil (see John Hart-Buck Showalter era), the club seems to be headed in the right direction even if there is a long way to go. If Hicks inserts a level of management between Daniels and himself, he could end up unintentionally changing the team's direction. One thing this organization doesn't need right now is another change of directions.

Grant also notes that if Ryan does decide to join the Rangers in some capacity, that's a positive sign the Rangers are indeed moving in the right direction.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 01, 2008
Trusting Cashman
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River Ave. Blues writes a pro Brian Cashman column. After waking up this morning and seeing the vitrol thrown Cashman's way by a number of Yankees bloggers, I almost wrote something like this myself.

I have a question for the anti-Cashman group. Whom would you rather see as GM? Please show me a GM who hasn't made bad moves. And please show me a GM who would be able to put up with Steinbrenner for so long. As well as Bob Watson performed, he was almost driven to a nervous breakdown in the job. Paul DePodesta couldn't handle Dodgers management. Theo Epstein quit over disagreements with upper management. Do you think Schuerholz or Pat Gillick or Billy Beane or John Hart would stand for that kind of interference. Do you want Terry Ryan to turn your offense into a bunch of opposite field hitters? Would you rather have Omar Minaya wasting your money?

I'm all ears.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:39 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
January 30, 2008
Draft Dollars
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Peter Abraham notes the Yankees and Red Sox are spending a lot of money on draft picks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 26, 2008
Cashman on Williams
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The Times has the best round up of the joint talk Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein held Friday night. I found this part on Bernie Williams and Joe Torre interesting:

Cashman took a few jabs at Bernie Williams, the popular Yankee whose exit from the team was not on friendly terms. Cashman said that Williams was terrible in 2005, but that he brought Williams back as a farewell in 2006. After Williams had a solid year, he wanted to return for 2007. But Cashman did not sign Williams. Cashman said that Williams's music career "took away from his play." Interestingly, Cashman said that Joe Torre, who was then the manager, looked for ways to play Williams in 2006 "ahead of guys who could help us win," so Cashman did not want that to happen in 2007.

Cashman got rid of Bernie rather than telling Joe how to manage his squad. That strikes me as the right thing to do as a GM. The manager is supposed to control the action on the field. If he's doing the wrong thing, either fire the manager or take away the player. (I think you saw the same thing with Miguel Cairo last season.) As Torre goes to the Dodgers, I wonder how much playing Bernie was loyalty to Williams or a desire to play veterans. Los Angeles fans should hope it's the former.

Update: Peter Abraham talked to Bernie Williams today:

Only two writers were there tonight. Told of Cashman's comments, Williams first said he didn't want to resond. But then he paused and took a deep breath.

"I don't think he has any basis to say anything like that," he said. "Let me put it this way: Questioning a person's commitment to the team is a very serious accusation, at least in my book."

I asked whether music was a distraction during the final seasons of his career. "Everybody's entitled to their opinion," he said. "I haven't really talked to (Cashman) about what he said. But I want to."


Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Beane on Rebuilding
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Billy Beane makes this insightful comment on rebuilding a team:

Beane said later that this "is the most energizing part of the job for me. It sounds like GM-speak, but I'll be honest, I was itchy to do this after '06. The challenge for any executive is to know when you've run your course. The quicker you act on that, the shorter the time period (for rebuilding). We've all seen franchises try to hold on to something that is not there and they cost themselves an entire decade. I don't want to do that."

Hat tip, Baseball Think Factory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros to Arbitration
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Ed Wade's contract deadline didn't work out that well:

Though they would have preferred to have more time to work out deals with the Astros, the agents for closer Jose Valverde and infielder Mark Loretta believe they can win their clients' cases in arbitration.

Astros general manager Ed Wade opted to break off negotiations with Valverde, 28, and Loretta, 36, on Wednesday in favor of arbitration. Valverde's case before a three-person panel will be heard Feb. 14, and Loretta's on Feb. 18.

"By instituting a deadline so early in the process, it obviously indicates they feel very confident in their people and have chosen that route based on how they feel their chances are in the case," said Bill Rego, Valverde's agent. "I would have liked to have had a little bit more time to try to work this thing through, but at the end of the day, we feel we have more upside than downside in going to arbitration."

There is a large gap in both cases. I suppose Wade thought he could force the other's hand, but the agents stood firm. So now the Astros have to spend time and money on arbitration cases that they might lose. It seems like a lot of effort to save $3.5 million, when they might have saved half that just by settling.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Clearing the Arbitration Table
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The Athletics signed Chad Gaudin, their last player eligible for arbitration. The Red Sox signed Kyle Snyder, leaving just Kevin Youkilis facing a hearing. Eleven teams are now clear of hearings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 25, 2008
The Cash-Stein Dance
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Jessica guest blogs at The LoHud Yankees blog and likes what she sees happening between Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman:

My major is Mass Communications and I have worked at a television station for few years. From a public relations standpoint, Hank does his part. Hank shouldn't refuse to answer reporters' questions. Sport is part of entertainment businesses. As an old saying goes in the entertainment businesses, no news is bad news.

I really don't think there are many conflicts between Hank and Cashman as the media implies. Some people like to face media and others don't. Cashman understands his boss and lets him talk. They also may just play their supposed roles in front of media. Cashman is acting as the one doesn't want to trade prospects. Hank is acting as the one want to make a trade with Twins. In the end, If Yankees make a trade with Twins, they may just try to lower the price they need to pay.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:29 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 24, 2008
Acta on OBA
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Via Capitol Punishment, a great quote by Manny Acta on on-base average in a story about Nick Johnson's comeback:

"Nick, even when Soriano was here, was the most productive player we had because of his on-base percentage," Acta said. "That prolongs innings, prolongs games. It wins games. It's huge. He has so much value for us."

There's lots of other good stories at the CP link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 23, 2008
Critiquing Ricciardi
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HSAC Blog wonders if J.P. Ricciardi is an overrated GM. I've been wondering that for a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Salary Breakdown
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AZ Snakepit breaks down the 2008 Diamondbacks salary structure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Deserved Extension
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Ducksnorts presents a table showing just how much value Kevin Towers derived from his trades.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 22, 2008
Adding Floors
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The Padres extended the contract of Kevin Towers. They'll announce the extension at a news conference tomorrow. Kevin is now the longest tenured GM in baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mattingly and Family
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Don Mattingly won't be on the Dodgers bench in 2008 as he attends to family matters. I hope everything works out well for Don and his relatives. However, this makes the Yankees decision to hire Joe Girardi look even better. If this family problem is serious enough to take Don away from his coaching job, it would have been serious enough to distract him while managing a team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 20, 2008
Sell Stadium, Then Team
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The Tribune Company wants to sell Wrigley Field before they sell the Cubs:

Crane Kenney told attendees of the team's annual fan convention that new Tribune owner Sam Zell wants 94-year-old Wrigley in the hands of the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority -- the same state agency that funded stadiums for the Bears and White Sox -- before he accepts bids for the Cubs.

Kenney said such a move is designed to "bind" the team's next owner to keeping the Cubs playing at Wrigley -- which also would receive maintenance and improvement funds.

If I were buying the Cubs, I'd want Wrigley, too. I wonder if Zell is going to lose money by separating the entities?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 18, 2008
Royal Lunch
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Craig Brown attended the Royals Forecast Luncheon. He likes the way it's changed.

This was my third Forecast Luncheon. To say the vibe has changed over the years would be a gross understatement. The first year I went, the mood was downright surly and when they opened the floor for a Q&A, the attendees immediately put Allard Baird on defense. The team stunk and people were out for blood.

Times have changed. Goodbye pessimism and sour grapes. Hello happiness, enthusiasm and a good dose of optimism. And better food. Can't forget about the food.

Just another example of the Royals improving.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 14, 2008
The Draft's the Thing
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Blez at Athletics Nation explains why Oakland has to be great, not good, at drafting players:

I would say that has to be an area of grave concern to Billy Beane as he's trading away the few successful players that the A's have drafted to try and restock a barren system. That should be an area that the Oakland A's focus on extensively. Yes, they've had Ethier and used him to get Milton Bradley and Travis Buck is turning into a great pick as well. I'm not saying that the A's scouting and drafting department hasn't done a good job. That's not it at all. They just need to be better than the other teams out there in order for the A's to remain a viable and competitive franchise. The A's rely on getting a player like Bobby Crosby to replace a Tejada when he leaves for a greener wallet (Crosby is another one who hasn't worked out as expected thus far). And if it doesn't work out, you wind up with a team that can't compete with Yankees West down here in Anaheim.

At this point, the way of drafting described in Moneyball hasn't delivered superior results.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:17 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Why Stop Negotiating?
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I didn't know the Devil Rays applied this policy to arbitration:

The Rays have a policy to cease negotiations and proceed to a hearing if they don't have a deal by the deadline to exchange figures, which this year is Friday.

It seems to me, unless you're really good at winning cases, negotiating to the last second allows you to split the difference more often than not. If the Rays end up with a poor record in arbitration, this strategy is going to cost them.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:23 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 13, 2008
Crying Wolff
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Lew Wolff talks up the Athletics chances for 2008:

Fans will get something different, all right. The roster will be nothing like the one in the 2006 ALCS, let alone last year's.

"The whole thing is, looking at it passionately, I think we've improved the ballclub. We've certainly improved the probability of improving the ballclub," Wolff said. "If none of these offers came to us, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. At the winter meetings, Billy wanted to make clear that if a team wanted to knock his socks off, he'd be willing to listen. You're always going to feel that way.

"I kept reading the articles, and it's, 'Oh, my God, they're throwing away the season.' I don't believe that's true at all. I'm not going to go out to the game with the idea we're going to lose. We'll have a pretty good team on the field."

Wolff is more optimistic than most, but he has to be. It's his team.

I love the improving the probability of improving the ballclub line.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 12, 2008
Jocketty for Position
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I'm a bit surprised that people think Wayne Krivsky is on the hot seat because the Reds hired Walt Jocketty. It seems to me Krivsky was on the hot seat already.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 11, 2008
Low Expectations
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Rays Index doesn't think Joe Maddon is aiming high enough. I don't really have a problem with Joe setting his sights on .500 this year. When this team is ready, however, he needs to adopt the "winning is the only thing" philosophy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 10, 2008
Baker's Pen
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Redleg Nation expresses concern about how Dusty Baker might use the bullpen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:39 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Finishing the Front
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Derrick Goold notes the Cardinals completed their front office Wednesday by hiring Gary LaRocque.

More than just new people, there are new roles and new responsibilities.

Mozeliak has asked his professional scouting staff to come up with new thinking on how they scout, and the club's analytical department is being charged with developing new concepts for evaluation. There's also been expansion into new territories for the Cardinals. The club this offseason hired Rob Fidler, who speaks Japanese, to work with special assistant Matt Slater to "ramp up our (activity) in the Asian leagues," Mozeliak said.

The analytical department could start with, "Stop signing over the hill veterans!" However, this does sound like the Cardinals are trying to move in the right direction.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 05, 2008
Losing Power
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It appears Brian Cashman lost some power in the Yankees transition from George to Hank and Hal:

For the first time in public, Cashman admitted what has become increasingly evident: That his job has changed since the Steinbrenner sons took control of the team.

"Things have changed here in the third year," he said. "I'm learning as I go along, too. But it is different. But one thing is that I've been with this family, the Steinbrenner family, for well over 20 years. So I'm focused fully on doing everything I possibly can to assist them in their emergence now as decision makers."

I suppose Brian could decide which brother matches his way of running the club best and try to make sure that brother becomes the dominant partner.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chemistry Lesson
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Joe Torre gets it right on team chemistry, but Mark from the Bronx Stop doesn't believe him:

Joe Torre had a quote on the Mike Tirico show on ESPN Radio Thursday. It went something like this, "Chemistry does not create winning, winning creates chemistry."

I'm guessing Mark is too young to remember the Oakland A's and New York Yankees of the 1970s.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 04, 2008
Talking with DePodesta
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Beyond the Boxscore interviews Paul DePodesta. Paul doesn't give away much, but he does explain his definition of a Moneyball player.

My definition of a "Moneyball" player is much different than the common usage. I don't see it as having anything to do with walks or on-base percentage or really any statistic. To me that really misses the point. A "Moneyball" player is an undervalued player for any reason whatsoever. So, yes, we still look for undervalued players. However, there isn't a universal scale of value in baseball, as no player holds precisely the same value for all 30 clubs. Often times "undervalued" simply means finding players who may have more value for us than they would for the player's current team. It doesn't imply that the current team has somehow overlooked the value of the player. That other team has a different composition of personnel and under that composition the player doesn't have as much value as he would have in our composition. We're all trying to manage portfolios of players that need to be somewhat balanced across various attributes as well as between short-term and long-term goals.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Criticizing Williams
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Nick Pietruszkiewicz levels harsh criticism at Ken Williams over the Nick Swisher deal. It seems Williams wanted Swisher, and Oakland didn't want to trade him, so Ken kept upping the bid:

"I did not plan on paying this type of price," Williams said Thursday during a conference call in which he tried to convince everybody, perhaps even himself, that this was a move that would make this coming version of the Sox contenders. "I also did not plan on getting this type of player should we have [been forced to go] down this road, which we obviously had [to]."

"Swisher was not a player that was on the market. Billy Beane and the Oakland A's did not want to move him, so we had to make it attractive enough so that they would engage in conversation."

Williams is trying to win in 2008, and brings up attitude:

On Thursday, Williams paid for attitude - make that, paid heavily - hoping to find the lost formula of 2005.

"For us, [attitude] is almost as equal to the talent, because, in our particular market, it is such that you have to be a fighter, you have to be a tough son-of-a-gun to come in and perform at a high level.

"This guy fits in perfectly with what we're trying to do."

I quote Bill James on attitude here. Give me talent any day.

Swisher does have talent, and he comes with a relatively low price tag. If a team is going to give up that much pitching talent to win this year, however, this better be the move that puts you over the top. The White Sox are a better team for 2008 than they were before the trade, but Williams put himself in the position of making his task more difficult each winter. Where are the prospects to trade for talent to win in 2009?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
January 03, 2008
Moving Up
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The Red Sox farm system is now ranked second in the major leagues.. When the current regime took over, they ranked 28th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
December 31, 2007
More Patience
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Squawking Baseball likes the Pirates do-nothing approach so far. The author wants Pittsburgh to spend in the draft:

New CEO Frank Coonelly spent the last few years as MLB's watchdog for draft slot bonuses, which could spell trouble. But I can't imagine this administration not realizing that this was perhaps the key area in which Kevin McClatchy and Dave Littlefield failed. Yes, there were some terrible trades and free agent signings along the way. But the Pirates simply haven't developed quality players over the last fifteen years, despite having high draft choices year in and year out. The best way to do so is to go above slot, and the old administration consistently refused. With all the fuss about Daniel Moskos this past June, I can't imagine that Coonelly and Huntington would fall into this same trap.

I hope the Pirates take this advice. Seeing the enforcer flout the rules may get everyone else to stop listening to the commissioner's office on this issue.

Correction: Changed flaunt to flout, and learned some grammar.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Twins and Santana
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David Zingler complains about the Twins and Santana in a post titled, "Santana Situation shows exactly what's Wrong with Baseball." His main complaint appears to be that big market clubs are allowed to low ball the Twins.

He complains that baseball doesn't have meaningful revenue sharing like the NFL. However, I believe teams collect well over $30 million each in revenue sharing, and with the growth in revenue of major league baseball, that number is only going up. Given Joe Christensen's payroll calculation, the growth of revenue, and the Twins moving into a new stadium, there's no reason Minnesota can't afford to keep Santana. Maybe, just maybe, it's the Twins who are being greedy here, wanting to pocket rather than spend their revenue sharing money. Or maybe the Twins are just being smart, trading a player too early than too late. No one is forcing the Twins management to do anything. They can afford to keep Johan, they can afford to trade him, and they can afford to lose him via free agency. They'll go with the best deal they get, and no amount of revenue sharing, in my opinion, would change that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
December 28, 2007
Salary Structure
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Joe Christensen examines the likely salary total for the Twins in 2008. His 24 man roster comes in at $62 million with Santana, a drop of $12 million dollars. It seems the Twins could use that $12 million to raise Johan's salary to $25 million per year for five years and keep him in Minnesota for the opening of the new stadium.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
December 27, 2007
Serving the Customers
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Cardinals Diaspora takes Cardinals management to task for not building a decent team around Albert Pujols. I actually think this was a long term problem. For many years, the Cardinals surrounded their stars with okay talent, older players with mixed records. As some of those players aged and declined, they didn't improve the surrounding talent to compensate. On top of that, the mixed records tended to work out better than expected for St. Louis, but that bit of good luck ran out as well.

What are my options? Let DeWitt and co. earn interest so they can 'spend' the money in the right places or have them blow some cash on a big gamble like Silva or Tejada? Blow the dough. What's it matter to me? We've already spent the cash- they're the ones not. Who knows what will pan out or what won't 2-3 years from now? Nobody does. So to think that this team will have a better chance at a player or players 36 months from now is not only absurd- it's insulting- just like trying to force-feed me a pu pu platter of LaRue/Izturis/Kennedy/Ludwick up the middle on a team that features the best player in the world.

They need to replace Edmonds-Rolen-Carpenter with players of similar abilities to augment the production the team gets from Pujols, and the Cardinals just haven't done that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 25, 2007
Tax Man
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Luxury tax bills went out to the Yankees and Red Sox:

The Yankees have been over the limit all five seasons and this year paid a 40% tax on all salary above $148 million. That means that when the club gave Roger Clemens a prorated $28 million deal at midseason - that equaled about $18 million in salary - the Bombers actually ended up paying him $25 million for the 18 starts during which he went 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA. Clemens then lasted only 2-1/3 innings in his lone playoff start before being named in the Mitchell Report.

"I can't imagine that was the return they were looking for on that deal," said one executive from another AL club who requested anonymity. "If his postseason - and theirs - had gone better, it might have been a different story."

The archrival Red Sox were over the tax threshold for the fourth straight season, bringing their rate to 40% as well. They owed $6 million on their team salary of $163 million. The Angels were the only other team over the limit - a first for the franchise - and owed $927,000. The bills are to be paid by the end of January.

One point of the tax structure was to try to keep teams like the Yankees from spending too much. That part of the plan didn't work. But the money diverted to other teams has seemed to things more competitive down the line, especially in the National League.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 17, 2007
Rewarding Success
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The Arizona Diamondbacks picked up Bob Melvin's option for 2009 and added a guaranteed 2010 to his contract. Melvin got Arizona to the playoffs despite being outscored by his opponents. That's a nice reward for an outstanding season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 15, 2007
Money When Needed
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The Big Lead suggests a new revenue sharing scheme in which teams only get money when they need it as a way to make sure these teams are not pocketing the money.

I don't mind if teams cut their payroll and rebuild if they are then saving up for a killing in the free agent market in a few years. The Big Lead's plan would seem to prevent this. Maybe what's needed is a hybrid. Baseball shares enough with these low revenue teams to make up for a shortfall in revenue, and the rest gets banked until they start spending more on payroll. That way, there's a surplus of funds when a team really needs it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Stuck in the Middle
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Via Balls, Sticks and Stuff, Billy Beane on the Athletics and the trade:

"There's no need to dance around the subject, this is something we think we need to do," A's general manager Billy Beane said. "We don't want to sit in the middle, going in neither direction. ... You have a chance to do something special or you have a chance to create something special, but to be in between is not a place we wanted to be."

The current construction of the Athletics didn't work. Beane's going back to the drawing board. That's good news for the rest of the AL West.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 13, 2007
Nowhere to Go?
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Steve Phillips just said, as a GM, that he had nowhere to go if he thought a player was using steroids. I don't believe that's true. There were provisions in the collective bargaining agreements back then that allowed a player to be test for probable cause. I'm sure it would not have been easy for Phillips to get that testing by the union, to the point that the spirit of his statement might be right, but to say he had nowhere to go strikes me as a bit of an exaggeration.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Theo's Baby
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Theo's Epstein is now a proud father.

It's better late than never for Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and wife Marie Whitney, who gave birth today to the couple's first child, a healthy baby boy named Jack.

Originally due Saturday, the baby, weighing 7 pounds, 14 ounces and measuring 20.5 inches, was delivered at 10:35 a.m. at a Boston hospital. Neither Epstein, who is fiercely private about his personal life, nor the Sox had an immediate comment.

I wonder if Jack will get a ring for gestating during the championship season?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Fire Sale
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According to Peter Schmuck, the Orioles fire sale is just starting:

MacPhail was brought in to do this kind of dirty work, and there is more to do. Don't be surprised if pitching ace Erik Bedard is headed to the Los Angeles Dodgers or Seattle Mariners between now and the start of spring training. Don't be surprised if the Orioles give away Melvin Mora and Jay Payton or even pay someone to take them. Don't be entirely surprised if the Orioles pay recently suspended outfielder Jay Gibbons big bucks just to stay away.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Protecting Williams
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Guess who owns FireKennyWilliams.com?

That's right.

Major League Baseball went out and snatched the domain, presumably so no one else could.

And MLB did it through GoDaddy.com, which means they're paying a mere $9.99 or less to keep someone from saying disparaging things about the White Sox General Manager.

This doesn't appear to be a case of MLB grabbing all possible fireGM names. Firedavedombrowski.com, firebillybeane.com and firenedcolletti.com are all available. Firetheoepstein.com, firebriancashman.com, firebillbavasi.com and fire omarminya.com are taken by other people.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
December 11, 2007
Owning the Minors
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The Boston Red Sox entertainment arm, Fenway Sports Group just bought the Class A affiliate of the Houston Astros. They'll probably make it a Boston affiliate in 2009, but I wonder if there is a conflict of interest there?

As Fire Brand of the American League points out, Fenway Sports Group is a great way to hide money from MLB:

Well, because ever since its inception, New England Sports Ventures has looked for other ways to raise capital in order to both turn a profit and invest it in the company. Since all Red Sox-related revenues are subject to revenue sharing and then invested in a MLB-wide pool which is then equally disbursed to all clubs, there is not much avenue for profit there (unless you're the Marlins).

FSG changes that, as well as the yearly concerts that are played on Fenway soil and wreck the outfield for a few weeks. (And NESN, too.) These are not Red Sox-related profits so they are not subject to MLB rules and regulations. Not only is FSG providing an invaluable service in terms of expertise in the area, they are also generating dollars for Henry, New England Sports Ventures and the Red Sox.

Without these concerts, without FSG and without the other satellite operations going on, the Red Sox would not be able to compete as extensively as they do. The payroll would be lower, the community service would be lower, the marketing (Red Sox Nation) would be smaller. This additional revenue stream is what allows the Red Sox to have an obscene payroll.

The group also sells the advertising for MLBAM, so they are indeed helping all of MLB.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 10, 2007
Blaming the Fans
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Dan Le Batard blames the fans for the Marlins fire sales:

Besides, the Marlins tried to cash in on the 2003 World Series by completely forsaking their philosophy and giving long-term and guaranteed contracts to Mike Lowell and Luis Castillo. Later, they won a bidding war for Carlos Delgado. And it bought them nothing in terms of following, political support, benefit of the doubt, playoff wins or a stadium. So they tried. And failed. And now they're choosing a cheaper route. This isn't altruism or charity or a non-profit organization. It's a business, and it's as cold as cash.

South Florida is the worst baseball town in the country, and there is plenty of blame to go around for that. Blame a flawed baseball business model that demands taxpayer help. Blame god-awful rain. Blame a poor city and indifferent fans. Blame an ownership group that is hard to trust. Blame Cabrera for being too good at his job, making him too valuable, and Larry Beinfest for being too good at his. Young Devil Rays and Pirates don't seem to get too expensive too fast.

But don't blame the Marlins for behaving like what they are.

It isn't fair to tell them to spend when you aren't willing to do the same.

Baloney. In 2003, the Marlins attendance was around 16,000 per game. Winning the World Series, it jumped to 22,000 in 2004. In 2005, it went up to 22,800. Then they sold off the team and it dropped to 14,000. After the 2006 team did well, attendance went back up to 16,000.

If you win, they will come. Twenty-two thousand per game isn't going to lead the league, but 1.8 million a season is nothing to sneeze at either. The Marlins were building a fan base, then just threw them away. Don't blame the fans for that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
December 05, 2007
Penalizing the Marlins
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With the trade of Willis and Cabrera to the Tigers, the Marlins are going to come close to the minimum payroll required by baseball, 25 men at the league minimum salary. The might average $500,000 per player. Even with low attendance, the Marlins probably make enough off tickets and local TV and radio to cover the cost of the team, allowing revenue sharing money to be pure profit.

I'm sure other owners are going to be upset by this. The idea behind the distribution of this money was to make teams competitive, not be a cash cow for cheap owners. I suspect will see hard salary floors suggested, but I'd like to propose another solution. Teams that don't perform well don't get revenue sharing money. Maybe it's a hard line; the team with the worst record in each league gets nothing. Maybe it's a soft line, where any team that loses 95 games gets nothing. I don't like the idea of forcing teams to spend money they don't need to spend. If Loria and his baseball operations staff believe they can be competitive on $12 million dollars, I'd love to see it. They deserve a bonus for that. But if the team is crap, then they need to be punished. By tying money to performance, you change the dynamic of the season. A team at the bottom might not trade for the future, since they don't want to lose out on a big pay day. I'd like to see a penalty strong enough to discourage what the Marlins are doing, but not so strong that it discourages teams from looking for cheap ways to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:05 PM | Comments (33) | TrackBack (0)
December 04, 2007
Criticizing Kenny
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Tom Fornelli expresses his displeasure with the White Sox GM, Kenny Williams:

For some reason there are pitchers available-which last I checked, the Sox need-like Johan Santana, Dan Haren, and Erik Bedard and yet I never hear the White Sox mentioned when it comes to teams who are interested. Instead the Sox are busy signing guys like Scott Linebrink (who is a nice signing, but sure isn't the answer) and trading for Carlos Quentin.

All while the Royals (the Royals!) are shelling out the big bucks to sign free agents like Jose Guillen.

Which team is in the major market again? Kansas City or Chicago? I haven't been able to tell the difference lately.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:12 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
December 03, 2007
More on Miller
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Squawking Baseball is also unhappy with the election of Bowie Kuhn.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:02 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Good Neal Huntington
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Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke likes what he's hearing from new GM Neal Huntington:

We're in a unique situation. We have lost 90-plus games each of the past three years, but we have an interesting core of guys with two years left on their contracts. We have a good young pitching staff, and an outstanding young closer in Matt Capps. We feel that we have some talent here and have an opportunity to win, but we want to be in a position to be consistently competitive every year. What we don't want to do is win 82 games next year and then go backwards because we weren't thinking long-term. If you look at teams like Colorado, Milwaukee, Arizona, and Cleveland, it has been the depth of their systems--the players they've developed--that has helped them to take a step forward. It hasn't been players they've brought in from outside the organization. They've filled needs from within, and we need to get to where we can do the same thing. Improving our scouting and player development systems is a big part of what we're looking to do.

Yes, this sounds good, but Dave Littlefield often sounded good, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kuhn Elected
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The veterans committee elected Bowie Kuhn to the Hall of Fame. What a terrible choice, especially since Marvin Miller failed to gain entry. What did Kuhn do besides post-season baseball at night (inevitable) and screwing Charlie Finley? Sorry, that doesn't cut it.

Former Dodgers owner Walter O'Malley, Pirates owner Barney Dreyfuss and managers Dick Williams and Billy Southworth were also elected.

It's nice to see Dick Williams elected. He took Boston to their first World Series in almost thirty years, won the Oakland Athletics their first championship, and the A's franchises' first in over 40 years, and took the Padres tot the World Series for the first time. He was volatile, but a great strategist.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Willing to Spend
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The Royals are on track to see a significant increase in their payroll over the next few years:

The Royals appear well-equipped to handle a major addition (or two) over the next two years. After that, their payroll figures to jump past $75 million just to retain their core of young players -- even without any major additions.

It will only go up from there. Perhaps way up. And signing Guillen and Kuroda, or making a similar investment in other new acquisitions, would push the Royals' projected payroll beyond $90 million by 2010 and 2011.

That ought to be a sobering reality for a franchise that set a club record last year by entering the season with a $58.2 million payroll -- even if baseball continues its current financial boom.

Right?

"I want to win now," Moore answered. "I'm a competitor. I feel we've got to put the best team on the field all of the time. I want to win, and I know we're going to be successful here."

Nice to see the Royals willing to spend their revenue sharing money on payroll. What we'll see is how wisely they'll spend it. Not over bidding on Torii Hunter is certainly a good sign.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:08 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 30, 2007
Waiting for the Nats
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Bleacher Banter doesn't want to hear about signing minor league free agents:

I'm sorry for the rant, but the Nats have been here a few years, and they keep saying we're going to have a winning franchise, and be a big market team, and just wait, when we have a stadium, we'll contend. How do these guys help us? Dennis Tankersley? Are you kidding? I only recognize the name since I am sure he's related to the Tankersley who was supposed to close for Florida last year but sucked and lost the job. How am I supposed to be excited about this?

If the Nats want to fill the stadium, and sell season tickets, they better get a recognizable name, and quick. Because when they announce stuff like this, all I hear is yawns. Please, make a trade - give us something real to write about, and to cheer about. That's when the fans will fill that nice new stadium.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 28, 2007
Revenue and Salaries
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My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at what the growth in revenue and the lack of growth in salaries means for the future of the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 26, 2007
Staying With Youth
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Dodgers fans should find this good news:

Citing the high asking prices for top players on the trade market and the lack of quality among free agents, Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said today that he wouldn't "make a deal to make a deal."

That would leave the Dodgers with a team that once again would be short on experience, something Colletti said he didn't mind. Manager Joe Torre echoed similar thoughts.

"There's potential for change, but as we look at the young players that we played a lot this past year, we're less likely to fill in [positions with veterans] as much as we have in the past and more likely we'll give the younger players greater opportunity," Colletti said. "I'm curious to see how our young players, who really had a chance this past year to play full-time, I'm curious to see what another year does."


Posted by StatsGuru at 06:48 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers Nab a Doctor
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The Dodgers lured Dr. Charles Steinberg away from the Red Sox:

Dr. Charles Steinberg, who dramatically transformed the fan experience in Fenway Park in his nearly six years here, is leaving the Red Sox as executive VP for public affairs to accept a top front-office position with the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to major league sources. The Dodgers are expected to make the announcement tomorrow.

Steinberg spent the Thanksgiving holiday in Los Angeles as guest of Frank and Jamie McCourt, owners of the Dodgers, and reportedly accepted the offer at that time.
Steinberg was not immediately available by telephone.

His departure ends a working relationship with Sox CEO Larry Lucchino that spans nearly three decades. He was with Lucchino with the Orioles in Baltimore and the Padres in San Diego before joining the Sox on March 1, 2002.

Steinberg seems like a man who is always looking for a new challenge. He won't make the Dodgers win more games, but he should make the experience at Dodger Stadium more enjoyable.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 25, 2007
More Money, Less Talent
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Lisa Gray rails against baseball owners as most National League teams decrease payroll as baseball revenues soar:

I hear tell that McLane is planning on lowering the payroll again this year to 80 mill (approximately) in spite of the fact that the Astros pulled in over 3 million fans last year and in spite of the fact that he's raising ticket prices. Let's start demanding to know why he won't sign decent bench players for a couple mill instead of the Blums and Abercrombies of the world. Yes, I know we don't have anyone to trade for Miggy Cabrera or even Tejada, so I'm not complaining about that. And yes I am GLAD we didn't sign either Linebrink or Cordero. But we can't get rid of 2 of the 5 guys on the team (Luke Scott and Mike Lamb) who actually had positive RCAA and still expect to actually score runs.

I'm not sure that the owners are just being cheap here. A number of National League teams have taken the "build from within" option, which is great for lowering cost. With the Diamondback, Phillies, Rockies and Brewers showing success with this method, other teams are going to join in. And with the National League so well balanced, having eight to ten teams competing for playoff spots keeps crowds big and interest high.

For thirty years the players exploited free agency and arbitration to keep salaries growing. Now teams are exploiting the control they have over players for their first six major league seasons. Many teams sign arbitration eligible players to contracts to take that uncertainty out of the equation and control costs even more. Yes, there are teams that are being cheap, but most are just being smart given the constraints of the CBA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:35 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2007
Players Underpaid?
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Baseball reported revenue of 6.075 billion dollars yesterday. Adding up the major league salaries reported here, I get about 2.5 billion, so 41% of revenue goes to salaries. A few years ago, salaries accounted for 55% of revenue. During the 2002 contract negotiations, players were trying to get a fixed amount of revenue, but were afraid the loss of revenue due to a strike would wipe out the gain:

In other words, if players manage to make salaries account for 60 percent of baseball revenue, up from 55 percent at present, they could still end up worse off if baseball's revenue plunges.

We don't hear players complaining about this much, however, since the growth was so big that they are very happy with the increase in their salaries. However, it does appear there's plenty of money available for salaries to go much higher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
November 15, 2007
Awash in Cash
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The Braves may be spending money this off season:

The Braves hardly can claim an inability to compete financially in light of a quarterly report filed by the team's owner with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In that report, Liberty Media said the Braves generated $101 million in revenue and $34 million in "operating cash flow" for the three-month period that ended Sept. 30.

That brings the Braves' revenue to $151 million and operating cash flow to $46 million since Liberty acquired the team in mid-May, according to company filings.

McGuirk said those figures represent a "snapshot" from 4-1/2 high-revenue months and reflect a "wildly skewed" picture of the Braves' year-round financial performance.

"Liberty did not own the team from the first of the year through the middle of May, which is predominantly a huge loss period in the life of a baseball team," McGuirk said.

Just another example of baseball's health.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 05, 2007
Positive Russell
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John Russell is putting a huge positive spin on the state of the Pirates:

Russell has already worked with a number of players on the Pirates' roster, and is convinced the club is closer to winning than its 68-94 record of last season suggests.

"I think we have a great core of players right now," he said. "We have the pieces to win now. It's just a matter of getting the passion, the accountability, the attention to detail. That's what works. My role and the staff's role is going to be huge and we're going to be diligent, but I like what we have."

Russell pointed to young starters such as Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell and Zach Duke, good speed and defense, and proven hitters such as Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez as a core to build around.

I'm sorry, the Pirates aren't good because they don't have good personnel. Maybe a better manager can get more out of these six, some of whom disappointed in 2007. But the rest of the team simply lacks talent, and there's no way a manager can make up for that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Transferring Coaches
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The Dodgers formally announced Joe Torre's signing today. Torre confirmed an open secret, that Mattingly and Bowa will follow him to Los Angeles.

Update: Great Vin Scully story at Dodger Thoughts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Death Rays
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MetsBlog notes a rumor that the Devil Rays are willing to move Scott Kazmir. Maybe the same team that picks up Miguel Cabrera and land Kazmir, too. That would be a franchise to watch for a number of years, not like the constantly rebuilding Florida teams.

Players like Cabrera and Kazmir are the players you want to acquire, not trade away. When they're 28 or 29, fine, trade them for prospects. These teams should be paying their price and building around them. That's what budding superstars are for.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
After the News Conference, A Ticker Tape Parade
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The Dodgers are going all out for Joe Torre's news conference:

Joe Torre will be front and center for his first day in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform. The new manager's introductory news conference Monday was to be held in center field at Dodger Stadium, not in some room in the ballpark's interior, a first according to team spokesman Josh Rawitch.

You night think Brian came to town. :-)

Meanwhile, I can't tell if the Pirates press conference to announce the hiring of John Russell will be in Pittsburgh or Orlando.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Luft on Girardi
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http://bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com/archives/860099.htmlBronx Banter talks to Marlins fan Jacob Luft about Joe Girardi:

BB: Is he creative with his use of relievers or does he assign roles to guys?

JL: Everybody assigns roles these days, but i never had a problem with when he brought guys in. He's also a hard ass, disciplinarian, real drill-sergeant type.

BB: I wonder how much that'll change given a team of more established players.

JL: It's a weird fit, but possibly a very good one. The [Yankees] do have young pitchers that will benefit a great deal, but he's a take-no-shit kind of guy, which really worked with the '06 Marlins. Fredi Gonzalez came in [in 2007] and it was like a zoo. The other thing with Girardi is he's got a temper. The guy told his owner to fuck off. I ripped him when he left, but after seeing Fredi let the kids go nuts in the clubhouse this year, I miss the guy. Though without all the bunts our offense went ballistic this year. Girardi is also very smart, he's a Northwestern grad, so it's possible he'll learn to change his in-game offensive strategy.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Talking to the GM
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Jeff Zrebiec sits down with Andy MacPhail to discuss his plans for the Baltimore Orioles. MacPhail evades most of the questions (with good reason) but he does seem to be on a five-year plan.

What is the course and when will it become apparent?

I've learned through experience that tactically it's best for me that while we can start to employ the plan and prepare for the plan, it's not something that you want to share with your competitors. I think, over time, those things become self-evident and actions speak louder than words. ... I don't think we are a signing or two away from contending for the postseason next year. I think that pretty much says it. You have to take a different approach. If you could ask me five years from now, 'What one thing could you accomplish where you'd think your time here in Baltimore was well-spent?' I would like someone to say, 'They really created a top echelon scouting and development franchise.' I think that's a principal goal for us to achieve to assure our fans that they don't have 10 more years of losing. ... If you stay diligent and you invest the time, the energy and the money, it will pay off. I think an example of that is committing $7.1 million to two draft picks [Matt Wieters and Jake Arrieta]. I think that's putting your money where your mouth is.

I would think that if the Orioles aren't winning in five years, Andy will be out of a job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 04, 2007
Pirates Pick
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A source says John Russell gets the managerial job in Pittsburgh:

John Russell, let go by the Pittsburgh Pirates as their third base coach only two seasons ago, will succeed Jim Tracy as the team's manager, a source with knowledge of the hiring told the Associated Press last night.

Russell, who lost his previous job in Pittsburgh after former Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon's firing in September 2005, will be introduced at a news conference tomorrow. He managed the Philadelphia Phillies' Triple-A team the past two seasons.

Russell was 84-58 with Scranton in 2006, finishing in first place. He turned that around this season, going 55-88. In his playing career, he was a poor hitting catcher. Think Sal Fasano.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
You Gotta Have Hart
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Soccer Dad looks at the John Hart front office family tree. Three of the four LCS GMs were proteges of Hart.

When Hart signed his young Indians to long term contracts in the mid 1990s, I thought we were going to see a new era in how teams manage their talent. Fewer teams took that approach than I thought, and there are still franchises out there that take their young stars to arbitration rather than locking them up through their peak years.

My only criticism of Hart is that he was much better developing offense than defense. His LCS descendants don't seem to have that problem.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 03, 2007
Announcing an Announcement
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The Pirates announce their new manager on Monday.

The five finalists to replace Jim Tracy, who was fired Oct. 5 after two seasons, are Class AAA Indianapolis manager Trent Jewett, Cleveland third base coach Joel Skinner, Class AAA Lehigh Valley manager John Russell, Los Angeles Dodgers bench coach Dave Jauss and Chicago White Sox bench coach Joey Cora.

No word on which one it might be.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 02, 2007
Worried About the Pirates
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Where Have you Gone, Andy Van Slyke is worried about the Pirates taking a long time to make major management decisions:

Seriously though, I have no idea what we're going to do with this whole "rebuilding the front office" thing. Huntington hasn't really hired anyone yet. Even the Dodgers have a new manager, and they weren't even looking for one. I'm trying very hard to remain positive, but a search to fill any job that goes on this long can't be a good thing. A search to fill three (four if you count assistant GM) important jobs that goes on this long is making me very nervous.

Pirate fans have to hope the new people in charge are simply being diligent in finding the right people for the jobs. The negative spin is that nobody wants to work there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Setting Goals
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I like Joe Girardi's first move as manager:

The mission statement is summarized in the two numerals that will follow Joe Girardi wherever he goes. The uniform number of the Yankees' new manager is 27, and the reason is rhetorical.

"How many have they won?" Girardi said, knowing that the answer is 26. Joe Torre finished the last seven seasons of his tenure by chasing a 27th title in vain, and now it is Girardi's turn.

It sends a message to both ownership and players. Joe is telling the Steinbrenners, "I know you want to win." He's telling the players, "I'm here to win."

The story also gives us a view of how Torre operated with the Yankees. He communicated well with Cashman, but didn't involve himself with the development part of the organization. Cashman hopes Girardi adds that involvement to his job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 01, 2007
West Coast Joe
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The Dodgers hired Joe Torre this afternoon:

Torre and the Dodgers finalized a three-year deal today to replace Grady Little, who resigned Tuesday. The contract is believed to be worth around $4 million a season.

"Having grown up in Brooklyn, I have a great understanding of the history of the Dodger organization and I am committed to bringing a world championship back to Los Angeles," Torre said in a statement released by the team. "I consider it an honor to be a part of this organization, which is one of the most storied franchises in all of sports."

Said General Manager Ned Colletti: "Few managers in the history of the game have accomplished what Joe has delivered. Throughout his career he has demonstrated the ability to turn a vision for success into results on the field and we welcome his passion and leadership. We have tremendous fans and they deserve no less."

If the Dodgers give Joe a good team, he'll do well managing them. Torre also wants input into personnel decisions:

Torre was said to be negotiating for the right to appoint his own coaches, among them Don Mattingly. He also wanted assurance that he would have input on player personnel moves, which could lead to the free-agent pursuit of Alex Rodriguez.

The Dodgers seem like a dysfunctional organization to me. As difficult as it was playing for the Yankees, you always knew where you stood with Steinbrenner. From reading blogs and newspaper stories about the McCourts, they seem less than honest in their dealings with employees. I wonder how Joe will react if that happens to him.

All in all, a good signing for Los Angeles. Torre is still the highest paid manager in the game, although not at the level under the Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Angels in the Bank
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If the Angels want to go after Alex Rodriguez, they'll be looking at a payroll of $130 million. That's what it takes to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees these days.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 31, 2007
Know Little
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Buster Olney doesn't believe the Dodgers explanation for the dismissal of Grady Little:

And today, Grady Little is not the Dodgers' manager, in any language. You can choose to believe, if you wish, the organization's stance that he would still be the manager if he wanted the job. T.J. Simers is not buying it.

By the way: Friends of Little say he had no clue in recent days about what the Dodgers' plans were, and he was twisting in the wind, waiting for someone to tell him something. Then again, if he had called to ask about his job, you can just imagine the answer he got: "Grady, you are the manager of the Dodgers."

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Control Issues
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The St. Louis Cardinals hired John Mozeliak as their new general manager today. It seems outside candidates harbored reservations about how much control they would wield with the club:

As recently as Monday, Antonetti, 33, was described as the front-runner by a source familiar with the process. But the protegé of Indians general manager Mark Shapiro could not come to terms with the club on a contract and also harbored reservations about the amount of control that would be given Jocketty's successor.

Interviewed in Florida by chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. on Oct. 19, Chicago White Sox assistant general manager Rick Hahn bowed out of the process prior to the World Series for similar reasons, according to an industry source.

In these cases, an internal candidate who is used to the office politics is probably best. Brian Cashman went into a similar situation, and it took him many years to gain control of the club. Good luck to Mr. Mozeliak.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Agrees?
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The New York Post reports that Joe Torre agreed to manage the Dodgers for three years, $14.5 million. I guess a pay cut isn't as insulting when it comes from another team. I don't quite understand this speculation, however:

And Alex Rodriguez could be following Torre from The Bronx to Hollywood. One of the reasons Rodriguez opted out of the last three years on his Yankees contract was he wasn't sure what Yankee life would be like without Torre's calming presence in the clubhouse and dugout. In the Dodgers, Rodriguez will find a club in dire need of a jolt at the plate and in the stands.

Wasn't Torre the guy who batted Alex eighth in the 2006 playoffs? I guess they patched over that difference. I can see Rodriguez playing for the Dodgers, if the Dodgers are willing to out bid other teams for his services. I really doubt they'll get a Torre discount.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:49 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
L.A. Skeptic
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T.J. Simers doesn't buy the reasons for Grady Little leaving the Dodgers:

Colletti and Little deny a published report they had a blowup at season's end, the same report also having them not talking to each other for weeks.

Take them at their word, I guess, until someone produces the facts to prove them liars.

No way, no how is the Boston Parking Lot Attendant involved in this coup, we're being told, and until recently McCourt really did have property to sell you.

If image, and the importance the McCourts place on it were not so pervasive here, maybe the spoken word could be accepted as fact.

But as long as the McCourts have been here, it's always been the spin that's manufactured, the Tipper Gore Lady certainly earning her wages.

Here's the meaning of Tipper Gore Lady. It certainly appears the Dodgers front office is not overflowing in credibility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Checking in on the New Manager
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Joe Posnanski traveled to Japan to cover their championship series. The Nippon Ham Fighters are managed by soon to be Royals skipper Trey Hillman. Right now, the the Fighters are down two games to one.

The Chunichi Dragons scored seven big runs in the first inning - they knocked Fighters starter Masaru Takeda out after he had retired only one batter - and then finished the job by destroying Hillman's team 9-1. This was just two days after the Dragons destroyed the Fighters 8-1. So, add it up, the Dragons now have a 2 game to 1 lead in this best-of-seven series, and right now it looks like they are a whole lot better than the Fighters.

Then again, it has looked that way all year for Hillman and his team. They scored the fewest runs of any team in Japan this year and hit the fewest home runs, and still they won their league outright. So, you never know.

"Don't underestimate us," Hillman says about his team. "That's when we'll get you."

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Short Notice
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I guess Brian Cashman is supposed to be answering his cell phone 24 hours a day:

Brian Cashman fell asleep Sunday night reading a story to his son, Teddy. His cell phone, in another room, kept ringing, mostly calls from reporters trying to reach the New York Yankees general manager for his reaction to Alex Rodriguez opting out of his contract.

Cashman's wife woke him up at about 10:30 and he checked his messages.
"At 9:32 there was a voice mail from Scott Boras to call him. He wanted to give me a heads up on something, was the message," Cashman said Tuesday. "And then at 9:42 was a text message saying he was opting out."

Cashman wished he had gotten the chance to speak with Rodriguez's agent.

"If there was no public announcement from Scott Boras on that, you could still always unring the bell because from the public standpoint, the bell was never rung," Cashman said during a conference call. "I could have said, 'Hey, listen, you sure you want to do this? Let's talk, you know, you take another crack at an opportunity -- can you please, you know, give us an opportunity to sit down and have the dialogue?"'

That conversation never took place.

"Obviously the message was sent, and it was sent loud and clear, you know, through Scott Boras when he announced it the way he did, that the bell couldn't be unrung after that," Cashman said.

It wouldn't matter. Clearly, Boras wanted this to happen on the national stage of the World Series. I doubt Alex made up his mind at 9:41 that evening. And with ten days to opt out, there was no rush to make this announcement. Cashman answering the phone or not, Rodriguez was gone.

This goes back to my post last night about over worked management. Why should anyone being doing business at 9 PM on a Sunday night? What can possibly get done then that couldn't wait until Monday morning? How many managers and GMs need to get burned out before someone takes action?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 30, 2007
Little Left
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Grady Little resigned from the Dodgers this evening:

Colletti said, "I wanted Grady Little back. I encouraged him a handful of times to think it through,"

The general manager said that he knew resignation was on Little's mind at the end of the season.

When asked if rumors of Torre taking over had an influence on his decision, Little replied, "None whatsoever."

"I have my personal reasons," he said.

He added: "It's nothing in particular. It's just a decision we've come to. This is all personal. There's a lot of belief I've been dealt an injustice here. That couldn't be further from the truth. My plans? To play with my grandkids."

Is this saving face? Or, like Hargrove and Bell before him, has Grady Little had enough of managing?

There's a lot of this going around. Terry Ryan in Minnesota left for these reasons, and Mike Flanagan in Baltimore skipped some meetings because he hasn't had a day off in a long time. I'm really wondering if these baseball people are working too much. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a two week shutdown after the World Series ends. Everyone go home. No deals, no firings, no filings. Everyone takes a break and recharges.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
More Definite
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ESPN reports that Joe Girardi and the Yankees agreed on a contract. Joe also gets an endorsement from Torre:

"Joe Girardi is a good man," Joe Torre said Monday on "Late Show with David Letterman." "He's got a feel for this organization."
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Heads West?
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My Baseball Bias links to two articles indicating that the Dodgers are about to replace Grady Little with Joe Torre. First, Peter Abraham:

The Dodgers were 82-80 this season under Little and were beset by clubhouse unrest. Owner Frank McCourt, a Boston native, decided Torre is best suited to quell that situation.

Torre turned down a one-year offer to remain as manager of the Yankees on Oct. 18. He had been with the Yankees 12 seasons, winning four World Series championships.

I don't remember a lot of clubhouse unrest. I remember a lot of injuries and management that liked to play fading veterans instead of good young players. This is a team that gave 1249 at bats to Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal. They gave more at bats to Luis Gonzalez and Nomar Garciaparra than they did to Matt Kemp and James Loney. How is Torre going to change this? He was the person willing to start Miguel Cairo at first!

Tyler Kepner doesn't jump to conclusions about the switch. He concentrates on Mattingly making the move with Joe:

The Dodgers, who were disappointed with their 82-80 finish under Little, had singled out Girardi as a possible replacement. Now they are focusing on Torre, 67, who said after leaving the Yankees that he was not ready to retire.

Mattingly, 46, has ties to the Dodgers' organization through his son Preston, who was a first-round pick of the team in 2006. The Yankees asked Mattingly to stay with the organization, but he said no.

So would Torre help the Dodgers? It's tough to say. No doubt, Torre is a great leader. He will deal with any clubhouse trouble, and he's very good at isolating players from the pressures of both ownership and the press. As for actual game management, I'm not sure that Torre wouldn't have handled the veteran situation any differently than Little. He gives the older players a chance to prove they can't play before moving on to a younger option. That's pretty much the Dodgers in 2007. Torre won't screw up a good team, but he's also not the kind of manager who turns lemons into lemonade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2007
Girardi Offered Job
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The Yankees may have lost A-Rod, but they made the right choice in managers. Joe Girardi was offered the job today:

"The Yankees have offered Joe the opportunity to become their next manager. Discussions are ongoing." Steve Mandell, Girardi's agent, said. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told Don Mattingly and Tony Pena that they will not be getting the job.

Girardi was in Denver for the World Series. A source said he is expected to fly to New York for the announcement, which is likely to come Tuesday. Girardi's contract is expected to be in the three-year, $6 million range.

So for less than they paid Torre for last year, they get Girardi for three. This offer fits well with the Yankees developing a young pitching staff. Girardi knows pitching. And unlike in Florida, he's likely wanted by the entire Yankees front office.

So with A-Rod gone and the Yankees saving five million a year with Torre gone, that sounds like they've already opened up $20 million. They save another $20 million with Clemens, so it seems New York is going to be rolling in cash this off season. Not a bad position when you're rebuilding a team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:49 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 27, 2007
Reading the Tea Leaves
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The Yankees decided on a manager, they just haven't made an announcement:

"I can tell you at this point, the family and the baseball people are pretty much in agreement," Steinbrenner said. "We are close; still a few details to work out and some more thinking on it. That's about it."

Despite the fact that the team is "close" to a decision, Steinbrenner stressed that nobody has been offered the job. When an offer is made, the team will have to work out a contract with the new manager before making an announcement, which is likely to take place on Tuesday at the Stadium.

The Daily News takes some of Steinbrenner's statements as indicating Mattingly is most likely to get the job. We'll see.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 24, 2007
Terry to Stay
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Via FanHouse, Terry Francona is getting a contract extension.

Francona, whose contract was due to expire after the 2008 season, is expected to have at least two more years tacked on.

Perhaps the only surprise is that it hasn't happened already. Managers Joe Maddon, Ozzie Guillen, Jim Leyland, Ron Washington and Charlie Manuel were given extensions or had options picked up. Francona was signed to a three-year, $1.65 million deal with an option for 2007 in December, 2003, after Grady Little's contract was not renewed.

Francona manages the club house and the game very well. Apart from his use of Eric Gagne, I seldom see him make a move that makes me think, "Why is he doing that?" His lineup construction is good, and he gives players a chance to show that they are good or bad (Pedroia and Lugo, for example), rather than letting small sample sizes determine their fate. And while other managers might make a big stink out of Manny's antics, Francona somehow keeps things under control. I hope he's getting a nice raise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 23, 2007
Understanding the Job
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I like this quote from Trey Hillman:

"I have no anxiety about that because the game of baseball is the same all over the world. There's different styles and different ways of playing it," he said. "Really, what matters is the foundational relationships that you can build with your players and putting them in the best possible position to be successful."

Managers need to know their players strength and weaknesses and put them in situations that allow them to take advantage of their strengths. It's nice to see that Hillman understands that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2007
Two for Tony
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The St. Louis Cardinals announced this afternoon that Tony La Russa will manage the team for two more years.

He said two years was the right length for a contract, because a one-year deal would prompt the same questions he faced throughout 2007, when he was on the last season of a three-year contract.

"One (year) is the wrong message, because from spring training on it's the same deal," La Russa said. "Two (years) lets the players know I'm back for" a longer stay.

The winningest manager in franchise history, La Russa, 63, will manage his 13th season wearing the birds on the bat in 2008.

It certainly wasn't one of Tony's more memorable seasons. He was arrested for drunk driving, one of his pitchers killed himself driving under the influence, and what should have been the feel good comeback story of the year was tainted by HGH allegations. And just when you thought the Cardinals were going to make a run at a weak central division, they folded their tent and let the Brewers and Cubs fight it out. Maybe all that is why the contract was just two years long.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
La Russa to Return
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There's a report that Tony La Russa and the Cardinals reached an agreement for Tony to continue managing St. Louis. Given what happened with Torre last week, I'll wait for the new conference to be sure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 21, 2007
How Much is a Winner Worth?
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According to this story, the Orioles and MASN combined are worth $800 million. No wonder there isn't a lot of incentive to put a winner on the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:38 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 20, 2007
Why Hillman?
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Dayton Moore lays out the case for hiring Trey Hillman:

"A lot of people view the Japanese major leagues as (being on par with) the major leagues," Moore said. "In some cases and some aspects, it's more challenging to go to a culture that is night-and-day different from how you were raised and what you grew up in.

"To go over there and develop relationships and to motivate players and keep players focused and to win -- it shows you a little bit about his guts and confidence level."

Those qualities, Moore said, made Hillman a better fit than some better-known names who might have generated more immediate fan interest.

"This guy is about relationships," Moore said. "This guy is about success. He's been a winner his whole life, and that's what fans want. Fans want a winning baseball team.

"There are a lot of guys with great bubblegum cards who aren't great managers."

Joe Posnanski love the signing:

The Royals spent $55 million to get starter Gil Meche, who up to that point had never even thrown 200 innings in a season. "Well," the presidents of Optimists Clubs said, "he has talent, and if he harnesses it, you know, that could work."

That's just how it has gone for the Royals (and I should know since I'm generally one of those glass-half-full, sun-will-come-out, Optimist Club members). Some of these moves work better than others. But the overriding feeling around here has been that the Royals -- because of their tuna-fish and ramen noodles budget, their recent history as doormat and perhaps Kansas City's perceived lack of glitz and glamour -- would have to overpay or take a chance or settle for second best and then hope for a little luck.

Slogan: Hey, you never know, it all could work out.

Friday, that all changed. There's no telling if Trey Hillman will win championships in Kansas City. There's no telling how successful he will be as the Royals manager. But here's the big thing: This time the Royals got the No. 1 guy. They got the hottest managing prospect around. They got a 44-year-old man who has been chosen the Yankees' minor-league manager of the year three times, who has won a championship in Japan and is on the cusp of another, who has worked in scouting, development, coaching management, you name it, who has wowed just about everybody in the game.

And, on top of it all, they scooped the Yankees. If New York had let Torre go right away, they might have had time to acquire Trey. But taking their time let him get away.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 19, 2007
Hillman to the Royals
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The Kansas City Royals hired Trey Hillman to take over the team as the new manager:

The 44-year-old Hillman has never played, coached or managed in the majors. But he was always successful as a minor league manager, and his Nippon Ham Fighters are playing in the Japan Series for the second consecutive year.

"There is not a more qualified person out there to lead," Moore said by teleconference. "He's been a winner his whole life. There's a lot of guys with great bubble gum cards who aren't great managers."

Kansas City has seen plenty of them.

Tony Pena, Tony Muser, Bob Boone, Hal McRae, John Wathan and Billy Gardner all failed to get the talent-thin Royals into the playoffs. All but Buddy Bell either got fired or quit under pressure. Bell announced last August this would be his last year after the club refused to give him a contract extension.

Now, Hillman steps into what has been a managerial graveyard. He spent 13 years managing in the Yankees' minor league system and three times was a manager of the year.

My daughter hosted students from Hokkaidō, Japan the last two years, and the Fighters success was a great source of pride for them. If Hillman can do that for Kansas City, he'll be a hero there as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Speaks
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Joe Torre minced no words talking about the rejected Yankees offer. He thought the incentives were an insult.

"The fact that somebody is reducing your salary is just telling me they're not satisfied with what you're doing," Torre said Friday at a packed news conference. "There really was no negotiation involved. I was hoping there would be, but there wasn't.

"If somebody wants you to do a job, if it takes them two weeks to figure out, yeah, we want to do this, should do this, yeah, you're a little suspicious," he added. "If somebody wanted me to manage here, I would be managing here."

He reserve praise for Cashman. I wonder if he'll catch on with another team, and how much money he'd want.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Why Did Torre Say No?
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David Letterman has the answers. My favorite:

Even Yogi Berra told him, "It's over"
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Consensus
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Selena Roberts sees weakness in the new Yankees ownership arrangement over the handling of Joe Torre:

Where there were once snap decisions by George, there is now indecision by Yankee consensus.

To be sure, Hal and Hank Steinbrenner aren't ready to slip into their father's blue blazer, to sit in the general's saddle, to inherit the light saber from Darth Vader.

Are they too soft or too green? Whatever the case, Hank and Hal have blown their transition move from the kiddie table. Ten days after the Yankees' season ended, holed up in Tampa with IHOP leftovers and Randy Levine this week, stepping lightly around their aging patriarch, Hank and Hal helped devise this ham-handed strategy: Let's discount Joe Torre's dignity.

I wouldn't be quite so harsh. My guess is the deal wasn't a consensus but a compromise. My two thoughts on Torre at this point were:

  1. Anybody competent applicant can manage the Yankees to a first round exit for a lot less money than they're paying Torre.
  2. Torre is uniquely qualified to manage the Yankees.

Since there is a lot of truth to both these statements, the Yankees came up with an offer the reflects that. If Torre says no, the Yankees were ready to move on anyway. If he says yes, it's a win for them. I hope they hire Davey Johnson.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
October 18, 2007
Hurdle's Story
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There's a terrific story on Clint Hurdle's life at the Rocky Mountain News site. I must admit I didn't know much about Clint other than he wasn't much of a major league player. I like the fact he has a photograhpic memory:

Hurdle isn't just a jock. Straight-A student in high school except for one B -- in driver's ed. His office is packed with around 1,000 CDs, all different kinds, and he's an avid reader. He has a photographic memory, to the point he'll ask bench coach Jamie Quirk things like, Hey, remember back on May 4 two years ago, this guy hit a two-strike pitch the other way for a double?

"Every time," Quirk says, "I'm like, 'No, Clint, I don't remember that.'"

He's made some impressive moves in the playoffs, thinking outside the box. He finally has the baseball talent to show off his managerial skill.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Staying?
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Word is that Torre is going to stay on as manager of the Yankees. My Baseball Bias is providing updates.

Update: No! Torre turned down the extension!

The Yankees just announced that Joe Torre will not return as manager. He turned down a $5 million deal that included $3 million in incentives.

That's what happens when you speculate rather than wait for the news. I guess Torre didn't want to take a pay cut.

Update: I'll speculate on the decision myself. My guess is that Torre probably felt he didn't need incentives to manage well. He might have even taken that as a insult. On top of that, it's not really clear that Joe wanted to come back anyway. He's 67, and managing does take a toll on you.

However, this may smooth things over with the players. The Yankees didn't just decide to let him go. They made a fair offer to keep Joe around, and Torre rejected it. I'll be interested to see what the veteran free agents think of this.

Update: Michael Kay, on his radio show, speculates that if the public reacts badly to this move, the Yankees might revisit the contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Score Bored
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The Orioles spent a year fighting over a scoreboard. Maybe they should be so single minded in building the team on the field. They'll bring in a lot more fans with a winner than with a giant HD TV.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 17, 2007
Reagins Takes the Helm
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Tony Reagins took over as the new general manager of the LAnaheim Angels yesterday. There's some speculation that the move gives more power to Mike Scioscia:

By passing over the senior assistants to Stoneman and refusing to consider candidates from outside the organization, Moreno appears to have shifted the Angels' center of power toward Manager Mike Scioscia.

Moreno cited a desire to promote from within and a preference for an "easy transition" by replacing Stoneman with someone who already enjoyed "easy communication" with Scioscia. Moreno acknowledged Scioscia, perhaps the most visible face of the franchise, would have a greater say in player personnel discussions.

"We just felt that it was really important for us to, one, move within the family, and also to give Mike more of a responsibility in making sure we're delivering what he needs," Moreno said.

I'm pleasantly surprised that the story makes no issue of Reagins minority status. Usually that's a big deal. It's nice to see the man's accomplishments rather than his skin color is driving his promotion.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 16, 2007
Over the Hurdle
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Doug Haller discusses Hurdle's growth as a manager from a player's point of view:

"As we've gotten older and we have a little bit more experience, he's let us go out and play and just kind of sat back and made the moves he needs to make," outfielder Matt Holliday said.

"But at the same time, he's let us go out there and have the free will to go out and play and try to steal bases and move runners and do things positioning-wise and just play the game by instinct and not necessarily be coached so much."

Pitcher Jeff Francis agreed.

"He's grown along with the team," Francis said.

I've been impressed with two strategic moves he made. The unusual double switch he pulled against the Phillies and pinch hitting for Morales last night. Most managerial strategy actually involves automatic moves, like having the pitcher sacrifice or pinch hitting for a reliever late in the game. But both these moves required Hurdle to be thinking ahead and weighing potential positive and negative outcomes. In other words, Hurdle was displaying real strategy rather than going by some unwritten book. That's nice to see.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 15, 2007
Stoneman Steps Down
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Bill Stoneman decided to move out of the Angels front office:

Stoneman, 62, is planning to move to a consultant's position with the club. His four-year contract expired with the 2007 season but includes a mutual option allowing him to stay beyond '07 as either a GM or a consultant.

Angels spokesman Tim Mead would neither confirm nor deny the expected impending front-office changes.

Stoneman's replacement as GM was not immediately clear, but it is believed that the Angels are looking at Tony Reagins, currently their director of player development, to succeed Stoneman.

Bill did a very good job with the Angels, putting together the team that won the 2002 World Series. They've had continued success, making the playoffs in 2004, 2005 and 2007. He worked well with Scioscia, giving him players who put the ball in play and play defense well. At 62, he probably wants to start collecting social security. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Red Dust
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Dusty Baker took over the Cincinnati Reds today:

"Let's be honest: Most of the time you don't take over a winning situation," Baker said. "Most of the time, you take over a situation where a team's not doing very well. That's why they come get you in the first place.

"When I took over the Giants, we were in the bottom. I took over the Cubs, they were in the bottom. So I plan on taking this team to the top like I've done with the other teams - and beyond. That's my goal.

"I've got to take it a little bit further and beyond, or else I won't be satisfied in my own life, in myself, if I don't bring a championship before I go home and play with my son."

Does anyone think that Roger Craig couldn't win with Bonds? I like this quote better:

"I can attract players to come here," Baker said. "You add or subtract a couple players from almost every team, and there's possibility. I looked at things, analyzed things. I loved to win. I'm spoiled by winning. I want to get back to that."

Let's see, the San Francisco players who were alienated because Bonds received special treatment? Players like Sosa who didn't get special treatment? Shawn Estes?

Dusty managed a great Giants team in 1993 and managed not to win the division. The Giants were up 3-2 in 2002, with Barry Bonds hitting well, and Dusty couldn't win the series. More than once I've seen him not prepare the bullpen so when his pitcher gets in trouble, he can't make the switch until it's too late. I don't think this hire does anything to help the Reds.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:48 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Do Managers Matter?
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Filip Bondy asserts that it doesn't matter who manages the Yankees in 2008:

Of all the pressing matters to be discussed by Yankee officials tomorrow when the Tampa Summit begins in earnest, one of the least important topics involves the identity of the next manager. It ought to rank on the agenda somewhere below getting another setup man and somewhere above obtaining a solid backup at PA announcer.

This unconventional notion may not sell many newspapers, or feed the ever-famished flame of the hot stove league, but it's the truth. Don Mattingly, or any of the other candidates being considered for the job, will unlikely prove to be significantly better or worse than Joe Torre at winning games, big and small.

When I was first working at ESPN, Ray Knight espoused a similar sentiment. Ray said the manager's job was about media relations. When he came back to ESPN after his managerial stint with the Reds, that attitude changed. He found it was a lot more analytical than he realized.

It's a complicated job. There are people management aspects to it (which Torre does well), there are strategy aspects (which Showalter and Davey Johnson do well) and there are development aspects (which Billy Gardner did well). I'd wager there are very few managers who did all three extremely well (maybe Whitey Herzog?). And so, you may need to decide which type of manager you need. If the Yankees keep their vets, a Torre or Mattingly type would be fine. If they're going on a youth movement, Girardi might be a better fit. And if they are losing good players and replacing them with less ability, then strategy might add a few more wins. Just like players need to adjust to stay competitive, sometimes teams need to do the same thing on the bench. The strengths of the manager should match what the club needs. When the makeup of the club changes, sometimes the manager should, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Latin Connection
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The Rockies ignored Latin American talent during the first few years of their franchise's history.

For the Rockies' first seven years, the idea of injecting talent through Latin America was an afterthought. They paid lip service but little money. Not surprisingly, they received little help from those countries, shortstop Neifi Perez being the lone high-profile player.

And that's being generous to Perez. How can a new franchise not be interested in a cheap supply of talent? They're now starting to see the rewards for the shift:

The man responsible, in many ways, for adding this rocket fuel to the Rockies' ride is Rolando Fernandez, director of Latin operations, and his scouts. One of O'Dowd's first moves back in 1999 was to promote Fernandez, recognizing "that he was special and needed a bigger role."

Fernandez's project was daunting, digging for talent with a pickax. But the Rockies pumped more money into his scouting budget and he made shrewd decisions, signing Morales at 16 and Jimenez and Corpas at 17 for approximately $100,000 combined.

That's a lot cheaper than a first round draft pick.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 14, 2007
Dividing the Empire
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George Steinbrenner decided to put his sons in charge of the Yankees:

"There's always been a succession - and that's myself and my brother," Hank told The Post in an exclusive interview.

He said he and Hal will have final say on baseball decisions as well as the running of the YES Network and the construction of the new Yankee Stadium.

"I'll pay more attention to the baseball part. The stadium, that's more Hal. But basically everything will be decided jointly."

"What's nice is the Boss is there - he's an office door away," said Levine.

Last month, Hal Steinbrenner was named chairman of the board of Yankee Global Enterprises. Hank expects to take on a new title - one that won't be decided until a board vote this week, when the team's brain trust gathers to sort out issues such as whether to bring back manager Joe Torre.

"We'll be bringing everyone together . . . to discuss those things. For the first couple of meetings, it will just be me, Hal, my dad and the usual cast," Hank said.

It sounds more like King Lear than King George. I suppose George's daughter plays Cordelia, but which of the brothers gets to poke out Howard Rubenstein's eyes?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cubs and Dusty
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Tom Elia notes a double anniversary for the Cubs, their 1908 World Series win and the 2003 Bartman game. To me that game turned on Dusty Baker not having the bullpen ready when Prior got in trouble. Dusty is reported to be the new manager of the Reds:

Dusty Baker was hired as manager of the Cincinnati Reds, agreeing to a three-year deal Saturday with a team coming off its seventh straight losing season and looking for stability at the top.

The 58-year-old Baker worked in television for a year after the Chicago Cubs fired him after the 2006 season. The Reds decided to go for someone who knows the NL Central and has been to the World Series as a manager.

Dusty strikes me as the type of manager who does real well with talent. I've never thought of him as someone who can turn around a franchise. There is some good talent on the Reds, so we'll see if Baker can bring out their best. I'd really be worried about young Reds pitchers like Homer Bailey turning into the next Mark Prior.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 12, 2007
No Mazzone
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The Baltimore Orioles fired Leo Mazzone today:

After two years as the Orioles pitching coach, Leo Mazzone has been fired with one year remaining on his deal.

The club made the announcement this afternoon in a news release.

"I spoke with Leo today and told him I appreciated his efforts here," said manager Dave Trembley in the release. "Moving forward, I felt that we would be better served with someone else working with our young staff and that it was in his best interests and our best interests to give him an opportunity to look elsewhere now."

The Orioles finished 13th in ERA with a 5.17 mark. There were some success stories in the starting staff as Bedard and Guthrie showed a great deal of progress this year. But pitchers like Daniel Cabrera didn't. And I'm sure part of it is Dave Trembley wanting his own coaching staff. I wonder if Leo will go back to Atlanta?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
End of an Era
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Be sure to check out my posts at AT&T Blue Room. Click on sports, then buzz. My latest offers my thoughts on the career of John Schuerholz.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:21 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Torre to Meetings?
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The New York Post reports that Torre might be invited to the Yankees organizational meetings next week. The Post takes that as a sign Torre might be resigned. However, the history of Steinbrenner firings is also a history of bumping people to the front office. Don't be surprised if Torre doesn't manage but does take another job with the Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
October 11, 2007
Braves News Conference
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From a Baseball Digest Daily E-Mail:

The Atlanta Braves are hosting a 3:30 p.m. press conference today for a major announcement. I have no idea yet what this is about, but I'm working on the details!

Maybe they'll announce the firing of Joe Torre! Wait, they already did that.

There's a non-zero chance that Bobby Cox will retire. If Cox, Torre and La Russa all leave their teams at once, the longest tenured manager will be Mike Scioscia, who took over the Angels in 2000. In the NL, it would be Clint Hurdle, who started managing the Rockies in 2002.

Update: Thanks to a reader for this link. It looks like Schuerholz will relinquish his GM powers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Peters' Principals
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Peter Schmuck traces the ancestry of three playoff GMs back to the great Orioles executive Hank Peters.

When the Cleveland Indians defeated the New York Yankees to take their place in this year's American League Championship Series, general manager Mark Shapiro quickly placed a call to the baseball executive who helped him get his start in the Indians' front office and impressed upon him the critical importance of the long-term player development strategy that has put the team one step away from the World Series.

When the Colorado Rockies staged a dramatic late-season run to capture the National League wild-card berth and then sweep the Philadelphia Phillies in last week's Division Series, GM Dan O'Dowd made a similar call. Both can trace the roots of their success to the same baseball father figure.

Peters ponders the possibility of the two facing each other in the Fall Classic with great pride and playfully rebuffs the obvious hypothetical question about his loyalties if such a scenario were to occur.

"I wouldn't want to choose," he said by telephone yesterday from his home in Timonium. "They both are great young men. I'd be pulling for both of them and happy for either."

Josh Byrnes makes an appearance as a Peters grandson-GM.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 10, 2007
Mo-Joe
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Mariano Rivera puts a little pressure on the Yankees to keep Joe Torre.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Next Yankees Manager?
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Anyone but him. His buddy Dallas Green was oh so successful there. And this, too:

One rumor being floated by Yahoo.com yesterday was that Steinbrenner would let Torre go in the next few days and hire Tony La Russa, whose contract with the Cardinals ran out after this season. This would seem a recipe for disaster for at least two good reasons. One is that La Russa's thin skin, which has rubbed raw even in the small markets where his aura has been built, can not survive the heat from the daily scrutiny of this team. The other is that La Russa has been known to deal very publicly when it comes to confronting his stars - Scott Rolen last year, and Albert Pujols this season.

Booze and steroids for everyone!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Growing a Team
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Nick Piecoro writes on the importance of building from within to both the Rockies and Diamondbacks:

"You have two choices," Rockies scouting director Bill Schmidt said. "You can build from within, or you can spend a lot of money. If you build from within and you want to sustain it, that's where patience comes in. You have to give credit to our ownership group. They had belief in us that we were doing the right thing."

It didn't happen overnight for either organization. The Rockies are in the playoffs for the first time since 1995. In between, they doled out some $175 million in contracts to pitchers Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle before the 2001 season, only to watch both struggle.

The Diamondbacks last made the playoffs in 2002 but endured three consecutive losing seasons from 2003-2006, including a 111-loss campaign in 2004.

For Byrnes to be in Tucson to watch his instructional league team - including this year's first-round draft pick, Jarrod Parker - showed the club's effort to bridge the gap between the minors and majors.

The Diamondbacks bring their instructional league players to see a game at Chase Field, to watch batting practice, to get a firsthand look at the majors. Last season, Upton and second baseman Emilio Bonifacio watched the game from a suite in right field.

"A year later," Byrnes said, "they're down here."

Bad Altitude doesn't think residents of Phoenix appreciate their team:

Here is the real kick in the face about the Diamondbacks, though, with thanks on the link going to Buster Olney: As of this morning, some 12,000 seats for the NLCS at Chase Field remained unsold. I told you Phoenix was a crummy sports town. Of course, that didn't do the Yankees much good in 2001, but that Diamondbacks team was constructed of veterans from other organizations, many of whom got their starts in cities to which big chunks of the retired community in Arizona remained loyal. Rockies fans are now completely on board with this youth movement thing; Arizona fans still seem to wonder where Luis Gonzalez and Mark Grace went. It's hard to develop from the inside in an area where half the biggest stars in the game play for peanuts right in your backyard for a month every year. Phoenix might be a market where you have to get at least a few already-famous free agents on your roster to convince fans you mean business. The Cardinals and Coyotes certainly work this angle, although look how successful they've been. The best franchise in the area is the Suns, who have mixed and matched free agent signings and player development, but I've always felt like the Suns are far more appreciated by NBA junkies out of town than the locals, who show up for the games when the team is good but will never approach the loudness of the fans of Sacramento or Denver.

I think that will change now that the start time for game two was moved to Friday evening.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 08, 2007
Henry on the Red Sox
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During the Red Sox clubhouse celebration, John Henry talked glowingly about his team:

Red Sox owner John Henry visited the clubhouse and offered his congratulations to his ball club, upon which he, too, was subjected to a victory bath of Bud and bubbly. Asked to characterize his team, the owner answered, "Relentless. That's the word that came up today. The lineup we had out there was so perfect. When you drop Manny back into that four spot, behind Ortiz and ahead of Mike Lowell, I can't imagine anything better. And Schilling - every pitch sequence was so crisp. It was a joy to watch.

"This group totally reminded me of the teams from 2003 and 2004. But even those teams didn't have this kind of bullpen."

Barring injury, the Red Sox are as close to a flawless team as you'll find in the playoffs. The starting pitching is very good. The bullpen is great. The offense, especially with Manny and Youkilis healthy and rested, is as good 1-5 as there is in the game. And while it took a while, Ortiz seems to have adjusted to his bad knee and is hitting home runs again. On top of that, the defense is very good, giving the pitchers room for error. On top of all that, they have home field as long as they stay in the playoffs, and they compiled one of the best home records in the majors in 2007. All the arrows are pointing up for the Red Sox right now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 05, 2007
Cleaning House
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The Pittsburgh Pirates cleaned house today, firing Jim Tracy and three others:

The Pirates today fired manager Jim Tracy after two losing seasons, as well as director of baseball operations Jon Mercurio, director of player development Brian Graham and scouting director Ed Creech.

Tracy, 51, went 135-189, including 68-94 in the season that ended Sunday, since former general manager Dave Littlefield hired him Oct. 11, 2005. Littlefield was fired earlier in the month, and the decision regarding the manager was left up to his replacement, Neal Huntington. Team president Frank Coonelly also was heavily involved in the process.

While you always feel sorry for people who lose their jobs, this looks like the right thing to do. Whatever the Pirates were doing for the last fifteen years didn't work, and a fresh approach seems like the right move. There's a great opportunity here for bright baseball executives. And Davey Johnson is available to manage!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Another GM Bites the Dust
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Jim Duquette resigned from the Orioles today.

Duquette, 41, was hired from the New York Mets after the 2005 season to work in tandem with executive vice president Mike Flanagan. However, the June hiring of president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and the possibility that MacPhail will bring in another executive to serve as his top aide would have left Duquette with significantly less responsibility and less of a voice in the club's decision-making process.

"I appreciate the work that Jim has done here, and I also understand his decision to resign," MacPhail said. "Jim wants to continue his career with a different organization, which I understand. I wish him well."

Jim leaves on his own terms rather than waiting to be fired. I also wonder if he has another job lined up? Coming out of the Orioles front office doesn't do much to bolster one's resume.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New Captain of the Pirate Ship?
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The Baseball Digest Daily newsletter just informed me that the Pirates will announce a decision today on the future of Jim Tracy. I'm guessing a new management team wants their own manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 04, 2007
Carrying His Jocketty
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The pundits weighing in on the firing of Walt Jocketty are taking the position it was a bad move by the Cardinals. Here's Scott Miller:

Under Jocketty, the Cardinals played in the postseason seven times in the past 12 seasons. And they won NL pennants in two of the past four seasons.

It is an impressive record of success.

And the odds of the Cardinals repeating that over the next decade, if DeWitt is going to persist in making knee-jerk decisions like reducing the autonomy of a smart baseball man who has only produced solid results, have just gone down significantly.

And at Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal writes:

The Cardinals did something even more bizarre Wednesday, parting with one of the game's most successful GMs, Walt Jocketty, in large part because owner Bill DeWitt is enthralled with a younger executive, Jeff Luhnow.

Many in the industry expect the move also to lead to the departure of manager Tony La Russa, who is unsigned for next season.

Only a year ago, Jocketty and La Russa helped produce a World Series champion, the crowning achievement of their tenures for St. Louis.

DeWitt evidently is willing to sacrifice both for Luhnow, a former entrepreneur whose first year in baseball was -- drum roll, please -- 2003.

What no one addresses is why DeWitt thought the restructuring necessary. Jocketty was DeWitt's only GM, and since DeWitt bought the team before the 1996 season, he's certainly not an owner who just fires people without giving them a chance. This strikes me as a process versus results argument. Jocketty's process the last few seasons was to fill holes with aging veterans and let his core of Rolen, Edmonds and Pujols carry the team. Maybe Luhnow correctly pointed out to DeWitt this strategy was a long term loser. Look how successful Colorado, Cleveland and Arizona were this season allowing young players to grow together into a team.

Now, I agree that DeWitt treated Jocketty poorly. But Walt had a chance to embrace something new and chose non-cooperation instead. That's not very open-minded, and it appears that being to new ideas led to his dismissal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jockeying for Jocketty's Job
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In a surprise move, the Cardinals fired Walt Jocketty today.

Citing a widening front office split, Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. dismissed Jocketty, the longest-tenured GM in club history, during a Wednesday morning meeting at DeWitt's Clayton home.

Jocketty had received no indication of a pending move regarding his status before DeWitt invited him to Wednesday's 45-minute meeting.

Many within the front office were unaware of the move until the club issued a press release at about 3 p.m.

"To say he was not 100 percent happy would certainly be accurate," DeWitt said.

I bet. Walt struck me as one of the better GMs in the game. I didn't always agree with the way he built his team. He liked to bring in veterans who should be in decline, but the Cardinals usually seemed to get good seasons out of them. But I guess DeWitt felt the same way:

The move, which was first reported on STLtoday.com, occurred less than one year after the Cardinals secured their first World Series title in 24 years, but was more directly influenced by DeWitt's installation of a new front office model less than 13 months ago.

Jocketty's refusal to embrace the new structure brought scrutiny that culminated in his ouster, according to DeWitt, despite a successful 13-year run highlighted by two World Series appearances and five trips to the playoffs the last seven seasons.

Reflecting greater organizational emphasis on signing and developing its own talent, an expedited search will likely focus on assistant general managers with a strong background in scouting and player development, according to the team chairman.

I'm sure some organization would be more than happy to hire Walt to run their operations. I'm sure we'll hear more about this story in the coming days.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2007
Low Payroll Champion
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Josh Byrnes gets kudos for assembling a winner with a low payroll:

General Manager Josh Byrnes assembled a club with a payroll of about $53 million, or about half what Arizona spent during the 2002 season.

"Josh has done a phenomenal job with the resources we've made available to him," Diamondbacks CEO Jeff Moorad said.

According to USA Today's online salary database, the Diamondbacks' payroll ranked in the bottom five of the 30 major-league teams at the beginning of the season.

Counting just the 25 players they are expected to have on their playoff roster, the figure dips to $35 million.

But the club also had expenditures on other player-related costs that nearly equaled the payroll figure.

They paid the vast majority of pitcher Russ Ortiz's $7.5 million salary, owed outfielder Shawn Green about $5.7 million and picked up $1 million of reliever Jorge Julio's contract. The all-inclusive player payroll total was just short of $70 million.

It should be noted, however, that instead of having the best record in the National League, this team should have been closer to .500. Still, even is an impressive finish for a team with such a low payroll.

Byrnes and Dan O'Dowd in Colorado developed their teams on similar philosophies. They gathered young players and let them mature together. The Rockies are populated with players near their peaks, and Arizona will be there soon. Playing so many hitters near their peaks increases the probability of a few of them having career years. That's what happened in Colorado, and I expect that in a couple of seasons the Diamondback hitters will be as good. Luck just got them there earlier than expected.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 30, 2007
Wither Randolph?
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I've been listening to and reading some criticism of Willie Randolph, as you might expect after such an epic collapse. I find it interesting, however, that one is how even tempered he is. When he stands at the top of the dugout, you don't see him get emotional, good or bad. Now, this surprises me as a criticism, because I've spent most of my life listening to that kind of behavior get positive reviews. (Look at him, you can't tell if the team is winning or losing!) It strikes me that Willie is very much Joe Torre in this regard. So Mets fans, do you have any legitimate criticisms of Willie? When I look at the aggregate Mets lineup, it looks pretty solid. High OBA players at the top, sluggers in the middle, poor hitters at the bottom. The pitchers did well in close and late situations, saying to me that Randolph got the relief matchups right most of the time. I don't watch enough games to comment on in game strategy. The Mets were second in sacrifice hits, but the majority of those came out of the pitcher's spot. The Mets stole with an 81% success rate, so he called for steals with the right runners at the right time. What exactly did Randolph do wrong other than show a lack of emotion?

Update: Here's Matt Cerrone's take:

...in the end, i believe this current group of players got a bit sloth like through much of the summer, and those bad actions became habit and spilled over in to crunch time...i hesitantly blame Willie Randolph, because while i respect his confidence and believe it is ultimately a good thing, i suspect it may also have helped to create a sense of entitlement that morphed in to a sense of apathy, which led to the team's uninspired play...ultimately, however, i mostly fault the players, who are professionals, and yet who actually went on record as acknowledging their malaise, like Carlos Delgado, who in early September told reporters, "We've got so much talent, I think sometimes we get bored."
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)
September 29, 2007
Cooper's Clubhouse
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The Astros removed the iterim title from Cecil Cooper yesterday, extending his contract through 2009.

When Cooper was made interim manager on Aug. 27, McLane suggested that the final month of the Astros' lost season amounted to an audition for Cooper, a five-time All-Star during his 17-year playing career.

Cooper said the team needed to play "with more excitement, more fire." He's tinkered with lineups and encouraged more steal attempts since taking over and the Astros have gone 13-15.

"The first couple of weeks on the job, I'd look around the dugout and all eyes would be on me," he said. "I know I have to stand up and be the right kind of leader, the right kind of guy. And I expect them to follow me. So far, they have."

The whole stolen base issue is nonsense. They attempted .60 steals per game under Garner, .62 under Cooper. They stole at a poor 66% clip under Garner, a better 72% rate under Cooper, although that's not far above break even. I'd really like to see Cooper address the real short comings of the team, poor hitting against right-handed pitchers and a very poor pitching staff. What kind of player does he want Ed Wade to acquire to fix these problems?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 27, 2007
Dodger Follies
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6-4-2 Addresses the idea that the Dodgers might trade some of their young talent:

Kemp, of course, is seventh in VORP among right fielders (19.2 VORP in 293 PA), an amazing feat considering that, among the top ten, every other player has more at-bats, even the Dodgers' number two man by VORP, Andre Ethier (15.3 VORP in 499 PA). So, who are these players Colletti is planning on getting to replace that production? If the rumors of a Kershaw/Kemp for Johan Santana deal are accurate, this team deserves to fail.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:19 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 26, 2007
Call For Data
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Squawking Baseball provides financial analysis of the market for players. They are trying to develop an open source financial database and are looking for your help. Stop by and see if you can contribute.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 25, 2007
The Huntington is Over
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There's been speculation for over a week that Neal Huntington would get the job as Pirates GM. That came to pass today. From Frank Coonelly's letter to the fans:

I am extremely excited to officially announce today that we have hired Neal Huntington as our new General Manager. After a comprehensive search for a baseball executive who can restore the culture of success within the Pirates organization, Neal is absolutely the right choice to lead our baseball operations department and to build a winning organization of which all Pirates fans can be proud.

As you get to know Neal and hear from him personally, you will see that he is extremely intelligent, analytical and driven to succeed. Neal is highly regarded throughout the game as an outstanding evaluator of talent and as one of the young executives who understands and utilizes the most sophisticated statistical and analytical tools of the trade.

I don't know much about Huntington, but the Indians are a high quality organization, and it's nice to see that the Pirates went for someone from there. It's a move in the right direction.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Extending Geren
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When it comes to managers, the Athletics seem to have things backward:

  • In 2002, the Athletics win the division, tie a franchise record for wins, and Art Howe loses his job.
  • In 2006, the Athletics win the division, win the ALDS for the first time, and Ken Macha loses his job.
  • In 2007, the Athletics finish under .500 for the first time since 1998, and Bob Geren receives a two year extension.

The front office seems to have missed the part about rewarding success and punishing failure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 24, 2007
Exorcising the Devil
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Tampa Bay decides to drop the Devil from its name. The Rays immediately traded for Ray King, Ray Durham and Ray Olmedo. It's only a matter of time before Ray Knight is managing. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 21, 2007
On the Beane
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It strikes me that the Yankees took a page out of the Athletics playbook this season. In 2006, the A's were 45-43 at the All-Star break and ended up winning 93 games. The Yankees were 43-43 at the All-Star break this season, and will likely get close to 93 wins. Cashman made some tweaks to the team at the trading deadline without tearing apart the core, and boom, the Yankees are nearly playoff bound. Beane gets a lot of praise for making these kinds of moves. It's nice to see Cashman doing the same thing. He's taken a lot of flak for Pavano and Igawa, but this sure was a nice recovery.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
September 20, 2007
Wading In
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Ed Wade is the new GM in Houston:

Former Phillies general manager Ed Wade is the new Astros' GM.

Wade, after meeting this morning with Astros owner Drayton McLane and other team executives, will be introduced as GM at a news conference this afternoon.
Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies' current assistant GM, was the other finalist for the position, but the Astros opted for the more experienced candidate. Wade was the Phillies' GM from December 1997 through October 2005.

The Phillies drafted several of their present stars under Wade's watch, including first baseman Ryan Howard, second baseman Chase Utley, left-hander Cole Hamels and right-hander Brett Myers.

I guess nobody good wanted the job. :-)

Actually, I was never sure how to judge Wade. Here are some thoughts from July of 2004:

Wade put a good team on the field. What I see when I read boxscores and listen to comments by readers is that Bowa does not make moves that increase the probability of the Phillies winning games. Bowa should be the first to go. Wade appears to me to be a weak general manager (a strong one would have found a way to keep Rolen in Philadelphia), but that may be built into the job. I don't know if Wade has the ultimate authority to hire or fire Bowa or if that resides in the owner. I have a feeling Ed Wade is caught between a rock and a hard place in Philadelphia, and is doing the best he can to survive and win.

And here were my thoughts when he was finally fired at the end of 2005:

I thought Wade made some good moves early in his tenure, but the Scott Rolen debacle soured me on the man. In a way, hiring Larry Bowa led to Wade's downfall, as that appeared to be a big reason Rolen wanted to leave, and Bowa's inevitable firing made Ed unpopular.

My guess is Wade will draft better than Pupura, but I don't know if McLane has that kind of patience to see a winner on the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 15, 2007
The Ryan Legacy
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Aaron Gleeman reviews the tenure of Terry Ryan and wonders if Bill Smith will be an improvement or another Wayne Krisvky.

Update: Kevin Towers provides some insight:

"I wasn't that surprised. Terry's one of those guys, just knowing him, he never seemed real happy [as GM]. He was like, 'Being a GM is what it is. If this is what the organization wants me to do, I'll do it.' He could have done it for 40 years, but with Terry, you figured there was a point in time where he'd say, 'I've had enough.'

"He's an honest man with a tremendous integrity, and a great evaluator. The best way I can put it is he's a baseball man."

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 13, 2007
Ryan Press Conference
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Basically, Ryan says it's the right time to go and thanked everyone from the owner to the bat boy.

Update: Here's a roundup from the Star-Tribune on the reorganization of the Twins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ryan Resigning
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According to reports, Twins GM Terry Ryan will resign this afternoon:

The 52-year-old Ryan is resigning after 12 seasons. The Minneapolis Star Tribune, citing three unnamed sources with the team, first reported the story on its Web site. The Twins have called a news conference for Thursday afternoon to announce a "major" reorganization of their baseball operations.

Team spokesman Mike Herman wouldn't discuss details when reached by The Associated Press. ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney and the AP also are reporting Ryan's decision.

Longtime assistant GM Bill Smith will succeed Ryan, the Star Tribune reported. Smith has been club vice president/assistant GM for the last 13 of his 22 seasons with the organization.

It's not clear if Ryan is being forced out or is leaving of his own accord. I'd be fairly shocked if he were forced out since overall he's done a very good job with the team. Maybe he's had enough of cheap ownership, and with other jobs available, he thinks he can do better elsewhere.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 12, 2007
Last Place, Five More Years
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The Chicago White Sox front office doesn't blame Ozzie Guillen for the 2007 debacle:

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen spoke patiently after agreeing to a contract extension that secures his services through 2012.

I don't think you should fire a manager for one bad year, but I also don't think you should be stuck with him for five more years, either. What's tough to judge at this was whether 2005 or 2007 was the anomalous year. If 2007 is the outlier, it's a good move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 10, 2007
Hiring the Trainer
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According to MetsBlog.com, the Mets hired Pedro Martinez's trainer to keep the two close for the rest of the season. I hope they vetted him thoroughly. This sort of thing led to trouble in the past (see Barry Bonds).

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Post-Season Rays
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The Devil Rays have three affiliates doing well in the post-season. That's a very good sign for the future of the organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:52 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 08, 2007
Coonelly For President
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According to this report in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Frank Coonelly will be the new president of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Here's some background on him from Bronx Banter:

Frank Coonelly may be the most powerful person in baseball you've never heard of.

Coonelly's job title is chief labor counsel for Major League Baseball. One AL executive told me that so far as he knew, Coonelly "coordinates our side on the arbitration stuff" and that he is on management's committee on salaries and relations with the union. Doug Pappas, who is the chairman of the Society for American Baseball Research's Business of Baseball Committee, puts it this way: "Coonelly is in charge of monitoring compliance with suggested draft bonuses and free-agent negotiations."

Coonelly was at the heart of the collusion allegations heard in the early part of this decade. Some thought he was a human information bank. It would have been collusion for MLB to keep that on a computer, but some feel baseball got around that by having everything go through Frank. It doesn't seem like the choice to make if you want someone who'll get along well with the players or their agents.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Watson Wants to Return
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Bob Watson is very interested in returning to the Houston Astros as general manager.

"I have really a real feeling for the Houston Astros," he said. "As you know, and hopefully our readers know, that in 1964 I signed with then the Colt .45s, so I go a way back. I've been with this organization in a number of capacities. And I left to go to New York, and bottom line is I left a job undone. I'd like to culminate my career of some 43 years as we speak with bringing in and putting this club where it needs to be.

"And I think the other reason is I think Drayton McLane deserves to have a championship club. He has worked so hard and tirelessly. He has spent a lot of his money and energy trying to make this a championship city, and I'd like to help him accomplish that."

Bob Watson's had an extremely interesting career. He scored the 1,000,000th run in baseball history. He hit for the cycle in both leagues. He worked in the front office of teams and for the commissioner's office, breaking the color barrier for the position of general manager. I'm sure the Houston fans would love to have him back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 07, 2007
Defending Smith
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Geoff Young reminds us of the good job Randy Smith performed as GM of the Padres.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Purple Hurdle
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Purple Row examines Clint Hurdle's ability to manage in a pennant race.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Looking for Work
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Baseball Digest Daily just sent word that the Pirates fired Dave Littlefield. I'm looking for a story.

Update: Here's one from the Post-Gazette:

The Pirates this morning fired general manager Dave Littlefield near the end of his seventh losing season.

He will be replaced on an interim basis by Brian Graham, the team's director of player development.

Littlefield, 47, took the post July 31, 2001, and his teams went a combined 442-581 in his tenure, never approaching .500. That included 67-95 finishes in 2005 and 2006, and the current edition's 61-79 record.

His contract, which was extended on opening day last year, was to run through the 2008 season.

The firing was made by principal owner Bob Nutting, who already had been searching for a new CEO to replace outgoing Kevin McClatchy and now will add the general manager's post to that list.

Littlefield talked a better game than he played, much like J.P. Ricciardi. At least the Blue Jays put the semblance of a good team on the field. Littlefield couldn't even build a good farm system:

What's worse, however, is that the Pirates farm system has nothing to show for years of major league ineptitude. The farm system should be crawling with fine young talent, but the Pittsburgh AA and AAA affiliates are crawling with players in their mid 20s. That's not the age that produces stars. The Athletics and Twins showed how to build a team with a low payroll. The Devil Rays and Royals can point to talent in their systems. There's no excuse for the Pirates to be this bad. Things won't change until Pittsburgh hires a GM who knows how to build a team from scratch.

I could excuse the performance on the field if the last place finishes were being used to build for the future. That didn't happen, and whoever takes his place permanently is in for a long rebuilding period.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Beaning Beane
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Via Baseball Think Factory's Newblog, all I can say is "Wow." I guess if you don't buy Mike's services, you get ripped on his blog.

Since 1999, the Athletics finished first in their division four times and second four times, winning the wild card once. That's five playoff appearances. I think most teams would be happy with that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Job Hunt
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Jon Weisman seems a bit concerned that the Astros are interested in Logan White for their vacant GM position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 06, 2007
Sorry Charlie
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The Good Phight explains why Charlie Manuel is not the manager of the year. That was the first thought that crossed my mind when the Phillies blew the win yesterday.

Bob Melvin likely will get the nod for getting a team that doesn't outscore their opponents into the playoffs. Winning with a bad team, or winning when the voters didn't expect you to win is the usual criteria for the award. I suspect if the Cardinals make the playoffs, La Russa will garner some votes, as will Lou Piniella. Bud Black, however, has the Padres with the best run differential in the NL, and there's a lot to be said for developing both offense and defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 03, 2007
New Age Manager
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Dan Shaughnessy pens a very good article on Terry Francona. Some people worry that Terry is too soft on the players, but Mike Timlin disagrees:

Veteran Red Sox reliever Mike Timlin has played for numerous big league mangers and says, "You run into a lot of guys who say they are players' managers. And then you never get to speak to them. Terry is quite the opposite. The door really is always open. He has the players' backs."

What about the perception he's soft on crimes against baseball?

"Stuff happens around here that people don't know about - stuff the people don't need to know about," says Timlin. "He handles it. On some teams the inmates run the asylum and then there's teams that are jails. Here there's cooperation. It's a team concept here."

That I would guess, is a good thing, and certainly, the results are there to back him up. However, a nickname I hadn't heard before, FranComa, reminds me of this SCTV skit:

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 01, 2007
Lineup Problems
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For the second time this season, John Gibbons submitted an incorrect lineup card.

Prior to the game, Gibbons slotted first baseman Lyle Overbay and second baseman Aaron Hill into the sixth and seventh spots of the batting order, respectively, against the Mariners (73-61). That was where their names were listed on the lineup card that is posted daily inside the Blue Jays' clubhouse.

"Every day we go out, we look at the lineup card and we saw where we were," said Hill, motioning to where the card is placed near the clubhouse doors. "We'll have to pay more attention to all the lineups, I guess, instead of just this one."

Hill's last remark referred to the fact that the lineup card that was given to home-plate umpire Marty Foster and Mariners manager John McLaren had him batting sixth and Overbay seventh. Gibbons approved the lineup card before the game with his signature, but he didn't review the order first.

"My job is to go through and review that and I didn't review it," Gibbons said. "That was a screwup. The one posted out there in the room was right. The one that was printed up, I didn't review it before I signed it. That's all."

Seeing the error, McLaren waited for an opportune time to reveal Gibbons' mistake. In the second, Overbay flew out to left field, and Hill followed by pulling a pitch from Batista into left for a one-out double. With that, McLaren emerged from the dugout and pointed out that Hill had batted out of turn, according to his lineup card.

"It was our trump card," McLaren said. "When Hill got on with a double, we used the trump card. If it would have gone on the whole game, we would have kept the trump card the whole game."

This one didn't cost the Blue Jays the game, just a hit. But earlier in the year, sending Royce Clayton out to short when John Mcdonald was printed on the lineup card cost the Jays a game. I've seldom seen these mistakes made, but to have it happen twice in one season means the Jays really need to review their quality control.

The Mariners have different lineup problems as they lose 2-1. They've scored just 25 runs during the eight game losing streak.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 30, 2007
Down on the Twins
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Joe Christensen is down on the Twins future:

Today is the official groundbreaking for the new ballpark. Thoughts will drift away from this 2007 mess and toward 2010. Call me a cynic, but the way things have been handled this year -- with payroll restrictions and no progress on important contract talks -- do you see the ballpark opening with Torii Hunter (a free agent after this season), Johan Santana (a free agent after 2008), Joe Nathan (2008) or Michael Cuddyer (2009)?
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 29, 2007
One More and He's Gone
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On the morning of June 18th, the Orioles had lost eight games in a row and fired Sam Perlozzo. Dave Trembley takes over on an interim basis and leads Baltimore to a 29-25 record (they were 29-40 under Sam). Baltimore takes away the interim label, and the team goes on a seven game losing streak, starting with an historic double header defeat. It's almost as if someone flipped a switch; good under the interim, bad under permanent. More likely, the level of play under Perlozzo represented the real ability of the team, and now they're coming back to that level.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2007
Astros Retooling
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Whenever a team changes management, I try to figure out a clear reason. In the case of Tim Purpura and Phil Garner, I just don't see it. Tim signed Carlos Lee over the winter, and while there are concerns with the length of the contract, Carlos certainly performed up to expectations this season. As I mentioned in the previous post, playing Biggio so he could reach 3000 hits didn't help the team, but I doubt that using Craig was something Pupura and Garner would do if Biggio wasn't the face of the franchise. I didn't see Tim trading away the farm, to win now. So this year didn't work. Is three years really enough time to judge a GM?

As for Garner, he's been a mixed bag. Three years in a row he pulled off great comebacks, twice to make the playoffs and one near miss. Was that skill or luck? Was it a manager who looked at his personnel and made adjustments as the year went on, or was it just a team regressing to the mean? Maybe Phil was actually good, and just had bad luck this season.

McLane decided that the long term prospects under this management regime were poor, so he made a change. It's good in that Drayton wants to win, and I like seeing that in an owner. But it was his decisions that helped bring in Purpura and Garner. Why do we think he'll make better decisions this time?

There's plenty I don't know about the situation, but it strikes me that these two managers deserved another season. This could all just be bad luck, and it's sad to see people fired for that. Especially when Littlefield still has a job.

Update: A commenter mentions the Jennings trade. Here were my thoughts on that at the time, but it certainly turned out to be a negative for Pupura.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:39 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Purge in Houston?
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FoxSports is reporting that both Phil Garner and Tim Pupura are about to be fired.

The Astros have called a news conference at 3 p.m. ET to announce the change.

Owner Drayton McLane expected the team to contend after signing left fielder Carlos Lee to a $100 million free-agent contract and adding starting pitchers Woody Williams and Jason Jennings.

Instead, they're close to the worst record in the National League. More when the new conference is over. ESPNews is covering Michael Vick instead of this story.

Update: It is on MLB.TV.

Update: McLane is firing Tim Pupura over the team's performance over the last two years.

Update: Tal Smith takes over as GM on an interim basis. How much to you want to bet that they end up with Randy Smith as GM?

Update: Garner fired, also. McLane keeps talking about invigorating the team and getting them to play with more enthusiasm. Don't they need better pitching and hitting? Cecil Cooper gets the hire as interim manager.

Update: Was it Pupura's and Garner's fault that they had to play a poor offensive player at second base so he could reach 3000 hits?

Update: By the way, I'm a big Cecil Cooper fan from his playing days, and I'm glad to see him get a chance to manage.

Update: Cooper is talking about playing the game the right way. Does that mean the team isn't playing the game the right way? I can't see Garner letting the team getting away with that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
August 24, 2007
I'm Miguel Cabrera!
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FishStripes notes an unusual report time at yesterday's Marlins game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 22, 2007
Earning a Stay
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The Orioles are about to extend Dave Trembley's contract through the 2008 season.

Trembley was the team's bullpen coach when he succeeded Sal Perlozzo on June 18. Since then, the Orioles are 29-25. Baltimore was 29-40 and had lost eight in row when Perlozzo was dismissed.

Under Trembley, the offense improved from a OPS of .709 to .784. The pitching also allowed more offense, going from an OPS of .701 to .751. Under Perlozzo the Orioles were outscored 311 to 298, meaning their record was way below what should be expected. With Trembley, the Orioles have outscored their opponents 273-249. That should work out to a .546 winning percentage, and Baltimore is at .537. In firing Perlozzo, the Orioles were indirectly saying that their record was due to bad managing instead of bad luck. So far, the performance of the club is proving them right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 20, 2007
Swept Away
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The Giants defeat the Marlins to complete a four-game sweep. The Marlins' record stands at 56-69. At the same point in 2006, they were 59-66, three games better. Considering that Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez combined for 41 starts last season, and this year managed only ten, Fredi Gonzalez is doing a pretty good job. I'm curious what Marlins fan think of Gonzalez vs. Girardi. Does he handle the pitching staff better? Did Joe's use of pitchers lead to the injuries to Johnson and Sanchez? Is one a better strategist than the other?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2007
Little GM?
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Rumors are going around that Theo Epstein and his wife will soon be parents. No doubt in a couple of years he'll trade the baby for a sixteen-year-old with a better chance of getting into Yale who then winds up at UMass. Twenty five years later the traded child takes over the Yankees and wins six straight World Championships. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cats and Birds
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The Orioles called up Tike Redman recently, and the 30-year-old is making the most of his first time in the majors since 2005. He's 1 for 2 today, with three RBI on a two-run triple and a grounder that turned into an error. He's 6 for 14 overall.

What's interesting to me is how the Tigers and Orioles solved their outfield depth problems. The Tigers go with a 20-year-old top prospect, while the Orioles go with someone who couldn't even stick with the Pirates. That says something about the relative positions of the two clubs in the standings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 17, 2007
Manager Spin
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I guess not everyone is a John McLaren fan. He's also a pessimistic optimist:

All right, that should take care of my McLaren hostility for a while. Go Tigers! Go Jays! There's no shame in gaining ground because the competition can't help itself. Remember, "sucking less" and "being better" are just two ways to describe the same thing. So here's to the Mariners sucking less than their opponents.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Fighting Words
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MetsBlog.com wants to see more of a fighting attitude from the Mets:

...you know what, enough hat tipping...i'm tired of tipping my hat...the Mets are supposed to be the best team in the National League, why should they have to tip their caps to the Pirates, who were basically given this game to win...i dislike this thinking...the Mets should be embarassed and angry, not humble or respectuful...this is fight, guys, start acting like it...
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 09, 2007
Backman Turner Overdrive
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Wally Backman can't even last as a manager in an independent league. Lion in Oil charts the decline and notes:

The biggest thing that comes to mind with all of this is: what if? What if Backman had not been fired by the Diamondbacks, and been allowed to manage? Simply said, it would have been amazing. Ozzie Guillen would have nothing on this guy, and the blogosphere would have had daily material. That being said, it probably wouldn't have been a good atmosphere for Arizona's plethora of prospects.

However, his independent league team was winning big. Wally might have turned out to be a more intense Billy Martin at the big league level, but Billy also tended to turn teams into winners. You just had to be willing to accept the negatives that went along with that, including burning out a pitching staff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 01, 2007
Buddy Bell Steps Up
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Buddy Bell will finish this season as manager of the Royals, then move up to the front office:

"It started last year when I got sick," said Bell, who underwent surgery in September to remove a cancerous growth in his throat.

"My priorities changed real quickly. Not seeing my grandkids became important. When I grew up, my dad wasn't there. When my kids grew up, I wasn't there. Now my grandkids are growing up, and I haven't seen them."

Bell planned to tell his players of his decision in a team meeting before Wednesday's game against the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome. But he has already informed his coaching staff, and he said he discussed the matter with general manager Dayton Moore as early as April.

Cancer has a way of changing your priorities. With the way the Royals are playing this season, Bell will certainly be going out on an up note. Good luck to him!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:22 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 16, 2007
Retaining Wedge
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Eric Wedge received a contract extension through the 2010 season today. With the extension to Travis Hafner, the Indians are doing a good job of positive feedback, rewarding management and players for success. The Indiansa are 14th in the majors in winning percentage since Wedge took over, .505 (373-366).

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:19 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dicey Pitch Counts
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WasWatching has Terry Francona's response to Scott Boras wanting Dice-K's pitch count lowered. It's perfect. I think a minor reason the Red Sox wanted Matsuzaka was that he showed he could endure high pitch counts. Having someone who is capable of throwing 120 pitches in a game is a big plus.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 13, 2007
Staying a Giant
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Baseball Digest Daily has the press release from the Giants on Brian Sabean's extension. I have mixed feelings about this. For most of his tenure, Sabean did a good job, and along with Dusty Baker they got more out of this team than you would expect. But the recent spate of signing old position players may set them back for a number of years. I know they were trying to put together a winner quickly to get Bonds back to the World Series, but it just didn't work. If and when Bonds leaves, it will be interesting to see how Sabean tries to rebuild the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Rift with La Russa
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Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa are fine with each other after the All-Star break. And to prove the point, the Post-Dispatch provides a photo of the two about to kiss. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 12, 2007
Sabean to Return?
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Rumors involving Brian Sabean went from fired to hired very quickly:

Contrary to rumors that the Giants are preparing to fire Brian Sabean, ownership has decided it wants Sabean back next year for a 12th season as general manager, and the two sides have begun discussions about a contract extension, The Chronicle has learned.

Managing general partner Peter Magowan said in spring training that Sabean's fate would be decided after the season, suggesting the team's performance in 2007 would decide his fate. Even though the Giants are in last place in the National League West with a 38-48 record, Magowan apparently has had a change of heart and wants to make an effort to lock up Sabean sooner rather than later.

The reasons are unclear, and nobody involved in the discussions would comment Tuesday.

Isn't this pretty much how the Bonds resigning played out?

Hat tip, Maury Brown.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hiring Henderson
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ClassicAthletes.com notes that Rickey Henderson is the new hitting coach for the Mets. I absolutely love this move. Henderson did work with Jose Reyes, and moved him from a hacker who made way too many outs to one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. Reyes walk total nearly doubled in 2006, and it may come close to doubling again this year. Rickey not only posessed a great eye for the strike zone, but surprising power for a leadoff hitter (in 1990, he finished second in slugging percentage to Cecil Fielder). And while Rickey isn't very media savvy, his teammates love him. I remember Baseball Tonight interviewing Tony Gwynn at the start of the 1997 season. He was asked what the Padres needed, and he said they needed to bring Rickey Henderson back, then showered praise on the future Hall of Famer as a great teammate. When he was playing for the Newark Bears, I heard stories about how the players loved having him around and how much they were learning from him. I can't wait to see how he does as a coach.

Correction: Fixed a typo.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
July 08, 2007
Out of Options?
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The Mark Buehrle contract talks continue to mystify me.

The White Sox have rejected a suggested compromise from pitcher Mark Buehrle, making it possible the 28-year-old left-hander could break off negotiations entirely, according to a major league source.

Buehrle approached White Sox management with an alternative on the complete no-trade protection that Buehrle wanted but the team has refused to give him. The suggestion: a fifth-year player option that would kick in only if he were traded, according to the source.

Buehrle's proposed deal is worth $56 million over four years. The additional year would have been worth $17 million and pushed the total worth of the deal to $73 million, which would have equaled that of Roy Oswalt's current deal with the Houston Astros.

But the White Sox nixed the idea, and the two sides remain at an impasse over a 20-month gap in which Buehrle would lack no-trade protection in his new contract.

Buehrle pitched eight shutout innings yesterday, shutting down a Twins offense that score 32 runs the previous day. A game like that only increases his value. It's becoming clear to me that Chicago wants to do with Buehrle what the Red Sox did with Bronson Arroyo; sign him to a below market contract then trade him. They see $56 million for four years as a bargain that will bring them players if they decide they need to move Mark after the 2008 season. I don't think the fifth year at $17 million if he is traded changes that. That's Zito money in 2007. In 2012 that could be Ted Lilly money. Unless the White Sox know something about Buehrle's health that we don't I can't understand why this deal isn't done.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 06, 2007
CEO to Go
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Pittsburgh Lumber Company rounds up the news on Kevin McClatchy stepping down from his position as CEO. I agree with this summary:


It's hard to imagine this move being a step in the wrong direction. The McClatchy-era Pirates have had little success, save 1997's "Freak Show" team, and few would rate his stint with the organization as being productive. From day one we heard about the team's commitment to winning, but so far it's been too much talk and too few results.

I assume Littlefield will be next.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Injuries
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The Miami Herald notes the difference in the Marlins pitching staff between this season and last. It's the injuries.

Johnson said the discomfort is located in the ''same spot'' that caused him problems last season after a Sept. 12 start against the Mets in which he came back in to pitch after sitting out an 82-minute rain delay.

He did not pitch again in 2006 and spent the first 2 ½ months of this season on the DL after arm problems developed in spring training.

In looking at the innings pitched last year by the starters, I don't see anyone that was horribly abused. But I that doesn't show in game usage. I wonder if the handling of the pitching staff was the source of friction between the front office and Girardi in 2006?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 05, 2007
Managing the Orioles
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Soccer Dad notes what he'd like to see in a new Orioles manager and general manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hurley Buehrle
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Mark Buehrle continues to insist on a complete no-trade clause in his contract:

Berry also said that if Buehrle is traded, the pitcher will decline any offer of a contract extension from the team that acquires him and exercise his right to become a free agent at the end of the season.

"Mark is not going to waver on his desire for a full no-trade clause," Berry told FOXSports.com. "If he can't play where he wants, which is Chicago, then he'll re-evaluate it at the end of the year when he is a free agent."

Asked if Buehrle, a native of St. Charles, Mo., near St. Louis, would apply his position even to the Cardinals, Berry said, "I believe so."

"Anywhere he goes, he'll obviously consider it," Berry said. "But he won't be signing an extension."

Teams interested in Buehrle already expected him to be a rental; the White Sox will not grant a 72-hour negotiating window for a trade partner to sign Buehrle to an extension.

Buerhle's unwillingness to sign an extension after he is traded, however, could decrease the White Sox's leverage in trade discussions.

It's been an interesting negotiation. Usually when you go through all the other details and both sides are happy, they find a way to compromise on the sticking point. The White Sox have offered the no-trade for 2008, and then Buehrle becomes a 10-5 player in July 2010. Mark is giving the White Sox a very good home town discount. It seems to me that with Buehrle driving down his trade value by refusing to sign an extension, the White Sox should give in on this, or raise the amount of money in the contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 03, 2007
Back to Optimism
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The no-trade demand from Mark Buehrle hasn't totally killed the deal. Ken Williams thinks they still can get something done.

Assistant general manger Rick Hahn and Buehrle's agent Jeff Berry discussed a new deal last week, but negotiations slowed when the team did not give Buehrle a full no-trade clause, according to published reports. The Chicago Sun-Times reported the sides had agreed to a four-year, $56 million deal before the no-trade stalemate. Buehrle can become a free agent after the season.

"My gut is both parties want it to happen, so I would be hopeful that it would," Williams said Monday.

Buehrle is giving them quite a deal if the money is being reported correctly. Remember what happened when Bronson Arroyo gave the Red Sox a home town discount? I'm sure that's on Buehrle's mind.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 02, 2007
Good Start
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The McLaren era is underway for the Seattle Mariners. It starts well with the Mariners scoring two off Gil Meche in the top of the first. A walk, a double and a two-RBI single by Guillen plated the runs. Guillen drove in both runs yesterday as well.

KC scores one in the bottom of the first, and they're still batting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Buehrle Impasse
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Okay, I really don't understand this:

Buehrle was Boston-bound last weekend before the organization had a midweek change of heart and decided to work on a contract extension. A deal appeared just hours from being completed after assistant general manager Rick Hahn met with Buehrle's agent, Jeff Berry, on Wednesday in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The sides agreed on the years (four) and dollar amount ($56 million), even though it likely was less than what Buehrle could make on the free-agent market this offseason. But the Sun-Times learned late Friday that the deal was dead because the Sox would not give Buehrle a no-trade clause.

General manager Ken Williams reiterated that in a Daily Herald story Sunday, stating via e-mail: ''I cannot build a championship team if I do. The short-term and long-term ramifications are just too great.''

What? You can't build a championship team around a staff ace who is playing for at least $3 million a year below his market value? Consider that Buehrle has no injury history. His career winning percentage is close to .600. His ERA is under 4.00 despite playing in a launching pad of a ball park. He's a lefty!

What does Williams want? If Buehrle leaves in four years, Kenny gets draft compensation. It's not a perfect world. The White Sox are getting a bargain if they simply agree to give Buehrle the right to veto a trade. That seems to me like a good deal.

U.S.S Mariner looks at what it would take for Seattle to land Mark.

The main sticking point for most people is the contract. He's a free agent at years-end, and numerous reports have him stating a strong desire to pitch in St. Louis, where he grew up. Odds are pretty good that Mark Buehrle would simply be a three month rental, bolting for another team this winter. You know what? Not only am I okay with that, but I actually prefer that. As I showed a few weeks ago, the rate of return from players taken with compensatory draft picks is essentially equal to that of players traded in rent-a-player deals, while the rate of return of pitchers given long term contracts is disastrously horrible.

The Mariners wouldn't be trading a package of prospects for three months of Mark Buehrle. The Mariners would be trading a package of prospects for three months of Mark Buehrle and another package of prospects. Yes, you push the timetable for the return back a year or two, as no one the Mariners would draft next summer will be major league ready as quickly as a guy like Balentien or Feierabend. But you cannot ignore the significant value returned by the compensation picks. Deals like this are not mortgaging the future - it's more like a home equity line of credit. You're borrowing from the future, but you're paying the debt off very quickly.

Williams is making a mistake here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Mixed Feelings
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Lookout Landing answers a question on my mind in light of the Hargrove resignation:

I remember back in 2005, after we DFA'd Bret Boone and subsequently dealt him to Minnesota, my brother asked me why people were getting so sentimental over losing a guy who wasn't helping the team win, and who many of us had wanted to see go away for a long time. From an outsider's perspective, he thought that people would be ecstatic, not sad and emotional.

I think some people are probably wondering the same thing right now. And while Hargrove has never meant as much to this franchise as Boone did during his peak, to me, the answer is the same. When you have a guy who's been around for so long, he becomes a part of the team, and even if you're not a big fan of his performance, you almost always become a fan of the person himself. We're all so devoted to the Mariners that the players and coaches practically feel like teammates or even decent friends, people you make fun of from time to time but who, when it comes down to it, you're always rooting for to come through in the end. We want every single Mariner to succeed, and that's why it's been a little depressing to see Boone and Hargrove leave on terms that you know weren't really their own. Boone didn't choose to get old overnight and Hargrove didn't choose to lose his passion, but once they happened there was nothing either man could do, forcing them out of the organization sooner than they ever wanted. Seeing the end is always an unfortunate realization, and the emotion is warranted.

Tearful, heartfelt goodbyes are never pleasant, but if it's any consolation to Grover, he's probably going out on the highest note of any manager in Mariner history. While there are a lot of things I won't miss about his time in Seattle, and while the team may be better off without him, he was still part of the family, and it's too bad he doesn't get to ride this out until whatever end awaits. I wish him the best of luck. Mike, you'll never be ripped on a blog again for the rest of your life. Rejoice. There are upsides to everything.

If Hargrove had been fired after the six game losing streak, my guess is that Mariners fans would have reacted positively to that news. My guess is the Mariners will be better off without Mike, and they'll be better off without Bavasi, but right now what the two were doing was working. It's sad that Hargrove couldn't see if it was going to work all year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Narron Removed
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I guess you can call July 1, 2007 Black Sunday. Hargrove resigns, and late last night Jerry Narron loses his job with the Reds. Not only do the Reds own the worst record in the Majors, but they are underperforming their Pythagorean projection by five games. Last year, Narron had the Reds in contention, but the team could not stay on top of the NL Central very long and faded at the end of the season as Houston surged.

Pete Mackanin will manage the Reds for the rest of the year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 01, 2007
Hargrove Wrapup
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This is my thirty-ninth season watching baseball, and this is the strangest managerial change I've seen. Teams have fired managers who took teams to the playoffs. Managers have stepped down due to life threatening illnesses. But I've never seen one burn out during a successful season. I wish Hargrove well, it was obviously a tough decision for him, but most likely the right one. Maybe there's something going on with his family, and if so I hope that works out. And congratulations and good luck to John McLaren. He's certainly taking over at a good time for this team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hargrove News Conference
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Hargrove is facing the press right now. He says there are "no dark, sinister reasons" for his decision.

Update: Hargrove praises the organization. He says that every day he asks for 100% from his players and gets it. But lately he's found he has a difficult time giving 100% himself. So he's stepping down.

Update: He brought this up two weeks ago, and Bavasi asked him to give it some time. He did, and his feelings haven't changed.

Update: He says he's very unlikely to manage again. He really sounds burned out.

Twice now he's talked about his wife, making me think there's something going on there. For example he said he talked to his wife more in the last ten days than he has in the last ten years. He said that was neat. Maybe he discovered he just missed his family.

Update: Bavasi is saying that he and the front office are not happy he's leaving. They tried to talk him out of leaving, but Hargrove made up his mind. Bill says he's happy that Hargrove is doing what he wants, but he's upset for the team.

Update: Hargrove is off to manage the game, McLaren is on to take a few questions.

Update: McLaren says he picked up ten days ago that something wasn't right with Hargrove, but Mike didn't let on. McLaren's right arm is in a sling. He underwent surgery recently. McLaren was told yesterday by Hargrove, and John tried to talk him out of it.

Update: John is doing a good job keeping it together. He's very emotional, and it looks like he might break down.

Update: McLaren says he has a lot of Lou Piniella in him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hargrove Resigning?
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According to Geoff Baker's blog at the Seattle Times, Hargrove is resigning. That's hard to believe. It makes me think their is some serious illness involved here. The team is doing great right now; you don't step down unless you or someone you love is dying or you're going to jail.

Update: Baker credits Larry Stone with the scoop.

Update: Looks like MLB TV is covering the press conference. You should be able to find the link here. Click on the picture of Jeff Weaver in the main news box in the upper left corner, then on the Mariner's press conference link.

Update: Here's the story at MLB.com.

In a prepared statement released by the organization, Hargrove said he was stepping aside because his "passion has begun to fade" and it would not be "fair to myself or the team" to continue.

That's the worst reason I've ever heard. John McLaren takes over for the rest of the season.

Update: Here's the official press relase. The full quote from Hargrove:

"Over the past several weeks, I have come to the realization that to be fair to myself and the team, I can not continue to do this job if my passion has begun to fade. I want to stress how much I respect, and love, the players in the clubhouse, and the coaches and staff that we have in place here, and I can not stress enough what a tremendous place this is to work because of the people who work above me. I am very proud of the work we've done to turn this club around in three years, and I have high expectations for the team this season."

Update: This is an old story, but people are speculating that Hargrove leaving opens up the chance to sign Ichiro to an extension:

Hargrove and Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi deny a rift exists between the manager and the right fielder, but Ichiro's complaints to Japanese media about the atmosphere around the team reflect his frustration with Hargrove's leadership.

Several people with knowledge of the situation say there are philosophical differences between Ichiro and Hargrove and that Ichiro perceives Hargrove to be too laid-back, which creates an undisciplined environment. Those people say the relationship, from Ichiro's perspective, is "untenable" and "potentially irreconcilable."

Update: By the way, Hargrove will manage today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2007
Grover and the Bullpen
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Some praise for Mike Hargrove's use of the bullpen at U.S.S. Mariner. The Mariners have a poor GM and not the greatest manager, but they are doing well this season. It's a short term team, but if your goal is to get to the playoffs now, that's okay.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 27, 2007
Competitive Revenue Sharing
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For Baseball Prospectus subscribers, my latest column explores the idea of competitive revenue sharing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 25, 2007
The Billion Dollar Losers
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Fortune looks at the likely buyer for the Cubs, John Canning Jr.

For those who spend more time perusing box scores than M&A deal books, Canning, 62, heads the Chicago-based private-equity firm behind last month's $5.7 billion purchase of Nuveen Investments and the recent $7.3 billion buyout of computer retailer CDW Corp. (Charts, Fortune 500) Any deal for the Cubbies, however, would be led by Canning personally, not Madison Dearborn.

In Selig's mind, Canning has three things going for him. He has deep pockets to buy the team, he has Chicago roots, and, as part owner of the Milwaukee Brewers (he'd have to sell that stake), he's already a familiar face to the league's owners. He's also a big fan: Before becoming a private-equity mogul, he was a young catcher who failed in a 1962 tryout with the Atlanta Braves.

"I have enormous respect for John Canning, both as a person and as a businessman. But it's a process that will be fair and open," says Selig. "The Cubs are one of our treasures. It's a storied franchise with legions of fans all over. The only thing I would hope for is an owner who is very protective of the franchise and represents the city of Chicago well."

Including the stadium and the cable network and the bidding process for a publicly held company, the deal is likely to reach $1 billion. That's pretty good for a team that hasn't won a World Series in almost 100 seasons. If nothing else, the Tribune is going to make a tidy profit on their quarter century investment in the Cubs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2007
No Joe
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Joe Girardi refused the Orioles job:

"Baltimore is a fine organization, a fine team, and I'm flattered that they considered me to possibly be their manager," Girardi said Thursday afternoon on The Dan Patrick Show on ESPN Radio. "But the timing is not right for my family and I. That's basically it."

The Orioles' pursuit of Girardi began quickly after Baltimore fired Sam Perlozzo early Monday after his two-plus seasons as manager, and there were indications over the last 48 hours that Girardi was poised to take the job. He interviewed with the Orioles on Tuesday and was offered the job the same day, ESPN's Peter Gammons reported.

Wow. He says it has nothing to do with the Orioles and everything to do with his family. You have to wonder if he's waiting for the Yankees job, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Orioles Roundup
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Soccer Dad provides an excellent roundup of the various story lines surrounding the Orioles. I'm surprised pundits are recommending Girardi not take the Orioles job. There's downside to every job, but if Joe succeeds there, his reputation would be greatly enhanced. The bigger the risk, the bigger the reward.

Update: Baltimore ended their losing streak with a 7-1 win over the Padres. Jeremy Guthrie pitched another fine game, going eight innings, striking out nine and allowing just one run. The offense reached base 15 times, and there was a rare blowup by the Padres bullpen. Germano pitched okay, but Brocail came in and gave up four runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:33 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2007
MacPhail Speaks
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The Biz of Baseball provides the transcript of Andy MacPhail's press conference today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Putting Heat on GMs
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Dave Stewart voices his complaints about J.P. Ricciardi and Dave Littlefield.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
MacPhail to be Official
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I'm told the Orioles will announce Andy MacPhail's hiring at an 11 AM news conference. I don't see anything official yet, however. MacPhail did take part in Girardi's interview yesterday, so it's only a matter of time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 19, 2007
More on MacPhail
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Although the deal with Andy MacPhail and the Orioles is not completed, it appears the new COO will be given power to run the club:

The Orioles wouldn't speak about hiring MacPhail, and he declined to comment yesterday. But a baseball source told The Sun that MacPhail and the club had agreed to a deal in principle and that it probably would be announced tomorrow once minor issues were resolved.

The source said MacPhail probably wouldn't have agreed to come to Baltimore if he didn't feel he would have autonomy to run the club. And Angelos, who has been criticized as meddlesome in the past, trusts MacPhail and so desperately craves a winner that he has given assurances that MacPhail would have significant control of baseball operations, a source close to Angelos said.

We'll see. George Steinbrenner was able to cede control to Cashman. Can Angelos do the same?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2007
Perlozzo Firing Official
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Here's the press release about Trembley replacing Perlozzo. No mention of the MacPhail hiring, so that's not official yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Orioles News Conference
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I just received a tip that the Orioles are going to hold a news conference at 12:30 PM Eastern to announce a change in managers. ESPN says it's Girardi, but my source says Tom Trebelhorn. It's possible Trebelhorn is temporary until Girardi gets to Baltimore. (See update below, it's Trembley, not Trebelhorn.)

High-ranking sources have told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney that Andy MacPhail has reached an agreement to be the club's chief operating officer, and the Orioles also were arranging a meeting with Joe Girardi, furthering speculation that manager Sam Perlozzo is on his way out.

Update: During MacPhail's twelve seasons running the Cubs (1995-2006), Chicago's record was 916-1011, a .475 winning percentage, 22nd in the majors. Twenty third were the Orioles at 911-1014, .473. If they're going to hire someone new, shouldn't it be someone with a track record that's different from your team's own history?

Update: It looks like it's Dave Trembley, not Tom Trebelhorn getting hired.

Bullpen coach Dave Trembley, a longtime minor league skipper who has occasionally subbed for bench coach Tom Trebelhorn this season, has been named interim manager while club executives begin the search for a long-term replacement.

Update: Here's Trembley's official bio. His won-loss record as a manager isn't great but he was honored for this work:

Prior to being promoted to the big league club, Dave spent 22 years in professional baseball, including 20 years as a minor league manager...He compiled a 1369-1413 record, won two league titles and earned Manager of the Year awards in three leagues...In December 2001, Baseball America selected him as one of minor league baseball's top five managers of the previous 20 years.

Then again, how many people manage in the minors for 20 years if they're really great managers?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2007
Firing Line
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Peter Schmuck notes a couple of reasons why Peter Angelos allows Sam Perlozzo to keep his job:

But the situation is complicated by something that was not a problem when Johnson walked a decade ago or when Mazzilli was sent home from Anaheim in August 2005. Angelos has a personal affection for Perlozzo that has made him even more reluctant than usual to push the button on a managerial change.

Economic considerations and other contingencies also have given Angelos pause. Perlozzo has the rest of this year and all of next year remaining on his contract, which means the Orioles would have to pay him through the end of 2008. In addition, the club likely would have to buy out the contract of pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who is signed through next year and presumably would not want to stay around after the removal of the longtime friend who brought him into the organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Trap
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Did Billy Beane fall into the trap of acquiring a pitcher that played well against his team? In May, Ruddy Lugo pitched three straight days against Oakland. While I would think the three walks in 2 1/3 innings would turn off Beane, the A's picked up Lugo off waivers on Thursday:

The last guy you'd expect the A's to sign is right-handed reliever Ruddy Lugo, who they claimed off waivers today. In May, Lugo struck out the side against the A's in the ninth and punctuated it with fist pumps (he was in some childish snit about Nick Swisher), drawing some "bush league" comments. The Devil Rays promptly sent him to the minors -- a 9.28 ERA didn't help either. But Lugo righted himself in AAA. Maybe he'll be worth getting pumped up about -- or at least not leave the A's looking red-faced.

Saturday night, Lugo was a huge part of the debacle, allowing five hits, a walk and a hit batter in 2/3 of an inning. All seven base runners came around to score as Oakland lost 15-6 to the Cardinals. Somehow, I don't think Lugo will be with Oakland very long.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2007
The Shortstop Chronicles
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Fire Brand of the American League looks at the fallout from not signing Orlando Cabrera, and call that Theo's biggest mistake. In hindsight that may be true, but at the time it made perfect sense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fish Story
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6-4-2 Blames the 1997 Marlins for the demise of the Dodgers. I'd say it's more like the Dodgers not understanding the insignificance of a small sample size. If the Indians won that series (and it was just a bit of luck that they didn't), would everyone have adopted long term contracts for young players and building from within? Could one misplayed ground ball really make that much of a difference?

I was watching the Marlins game last night, and they kept bringing players from the 1997 team into the booth. The theme was that this was one of the great World Series of all time, but because it was Cleveland and Florida, no one noticed. Game seven was certainly exciting, but game three was the only other one that served any late excitement, and even that one dragged on too long as the Marlins scored seven in the top of the ninth to break a 7-7 tie, and the Indians came back in the bottom of the inning to score four. Compare that to the 2001 series, in which you had three dramatic endings, including the final at bat of game seven.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2007
Searching for Jack Cust
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Jacob Jackson's first Hardball Times column is posted. He's trying to identify the next Jack Cust.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 05, 2007
Rangers and Washington
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There's a philosophical split between Ron Washington and some Texas Rangers players:

Consider his dispute with Teixeira, which Washington describes as "nothing personal, just two competitors going at it." In Washington's view, Teixeira and the Rangers' other hitters need to demonstrate more patience at critical junctures. The Rangers rank fifth in the AL in pitches per plate appearance, but Washington laments their "swing-swing-swing" mentality.

"A lot of times we make three outs on four or five pitches," Washington says. "I just can't see that late in the game when you're four or five runs down. You're at the point where the starter is out of the game, you're in the middle (of the bullpen), these are the guys you want to get to. I've never asked him (Teixeira) to do it when the closer is in the game. But the middle guys, you want to make 'em throw.

"He feels like he's going to only get one pitch in that type of situation to do something with. He wants to take advantage of it. I've got no problem with that. But can you guarantee with that one pitch that you're going to do something with it?

"I don't think any ballplayer on earth can guarantee that. You might pop it up, miss it, roll over it, jam yourself. Then you make one out on one pitch. I want to see him get a pitchers' strike right there. Make him throw a pitch. Make him throw a first-pitch strike, then fight."

Managers face difficulty changing the approach of an established hitter. If Washington wants that kind of team, Daniels needs to get him those type of players, or train them from the ground up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 04, 2007
Lou Loses Four
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MLB suspends Lou Piniella for four games, including Sunday.

"I will serve it and I will learn from this experience," Piniella said before Monday night's game at Milwaukee. "These things won't happen again."

Sure, Lou. Meanwhile, the Cubs are beating up the Brewers tonight 6-2 in the seventh inning. So far, they've out scored their opponents 16-3 in the two games Lou missed. Maybe he should get suspended more often.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 03, 2007
Pushing the Wrong Buttons
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Once again, Sam Perlozzo decides that a reliever is a better option than his starter, and the reliever loses the game. Guthrie pitches well for eight innings against the Angels, leaving the game with a 3-2 lead. He did allow a run in the eighth, but he gave up two hits and came back to retire the last three batters. With just 88 pitches thrown, however, Ray came in to close the game. Why? Is it just because it was a save situation, and you have to use your closer? Figgins and Guerrero were due up, and both were hitless on the afternoon. Chone singled, Guerrero homered, and the Angels took home a 4-3 victory. I'm not sure how many more of these Orioles management can take before Perlozzo gets the axe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
A Bit Too Far
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Lou Piniella appears to have gone too far in his argument with Mark Wegner Saturday:

Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella was suspended indefinitely and fined an undisclosed amount by Major League Baseball for kicking dirt on a umpire.

It looks like the indefinite suspension was handed down to get Lou out of the dugout until MLB can make a decision about the length of the suspension. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a long one. Lou bumped the ump, and the whole fiasco was obviously for show, not because Lou thought the play was a bad call. Lou's out of practice at this, and he's going to pay for it.

Update: Whatever Lou did it worked today as the Cubs won 10-1. Of course, if he's out for a long time and Trammell manages a comeback, maybe he gets the job permanently.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
May 29, 2007
Money Manager
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There may be support for Cashman at lower levels of the Steinbrenner clan:

Steinbrenner put his GM in the crosshairs Friday when he said, "He is on a big hook."

Since the Yankees have lost all four games since Steinbrenner voiced his displeasure with Cashman, The Boss' frustration rises with every defeat.

"There are people trying to talk him out of it," an organizational voice said yesterday.

Since The Boss has been leaning on his sons, Hank and Hal, it's likely they are backing Cashman, whom Steinbrenner's family genuinely likes.

If Cashman's job is on the line, doesn't that make him more likely to make a real panic move? To trade away someone young and good for someone to help now? With Clemens, he just gave up some money, and the Yankees have plenty of that. Then again, maybe he should do something outrageous, like trade one of his star veterans for a bunch of prospects. Short term it won't help the club, but long term it might make them better, and it would certainly wake up everyone else. It would be difficult because the big three can reject a trade due to the 10-5 rule, but maybe the idea of trading them would be enough to snap this team out of its slump.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
May 28, 2007
Drezner on Cashman
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Although Dan comes from this point of view as a Red Sox fan, I have to agree with the last two paragraphs of this post:

Please, please, pretty please with sugar on top, let George fire Cashman. He's made some short-term mistakes as GM (I believe Cashman is officially the only person in the known universe who believed that Carl Pavano would be healthy all season -- and this includes Pavano). Long-term, however, he's started to restock the farm system and shed grumpy old ballplayers. The best thing that could happen to the long-term plans of the Red Sox is if Steinbrenner fires Cashman in favor of a Steinbrenner toady. At that point, I bet you that the new GM would trade Philip Hughes, Jose Tabata, and Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana.

In which case, there will be seven fat years for the Sox, and seven lean years for the Yankees.


Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2007
Perlozzo on the Hot Seat
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Soccer Dad explores rumors that Davey Johnson or Joe Girardi might replace Sam Perlozzo soon. The Dad would rather the Orioles wait until the end of the season:

I have no idea who those two club sources are. Flanagan and Duquette refused to discuss Perlozzo on the record. Did they speak off the record too? Once names like Davey Johnson and Joe Girardi are being discussed it's not a good sign.

Perlozzo, certainly has his faults as manager. And as much as I wish that Davey Johnson hadn't been shown the door, I don't see what he can accomplish with the season underway. (He quit when Angelos refused to extend his contract.) Let Perlozzo finish out the season, then sort things out. Frankly, the Orioles have bigger problems than their on-field management.

It's interesting that both men mentioned have had problems with upper management before While I think Davey Johnson is the best on field manager I've ever seen, given the problems in the clubhouse, Girardi may be the better fit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:58 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 25, 2007
No Pressure
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Steinbrenner on Cashman:

"He's on a big hook," a spirited Steinbrenner told The Associated Press in a rare interview from this Tampa office. "He wanted sole authority. He got it. Now he's got to deliver."

What's the worse that can happen? Cashman gets to work for an organizaton where's he not yelled at tall the time!

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
May 21, 2007
Rebuilding Mode
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Baseball Hot Corner wants the Yankees to rebuild. He also wants to bring in a different crew to accomplish the feat:

So, where do they go from here? The answer is obvious--Cleveland. Yankee dynasty architect Buck Showalter is languishing as a consultant for the Indians. Re-unite him with Gene Michael and ask them to do it again.

The problem, of course, is that Buck and Gene had a free hand to rebuild because MLB suspended George Steinbrenner. The two great rebuilding periods for the Yankees came during Steinbrenner suspensions, in the early 1970s and early 1990s. No one is going to be able to build long term as long as George is alive.

And besides, isn't that what Cashman did this winter? The author didn't like the Sheffield trade, but the point of the Sheffield trade was rebuilding. Right now, the Yankees are a good team going through a period of bad luck. Maybe they don't make the playoffs this year. That's okay. When it's July and their still 11 games back, that's the time to trade for the future. It's a little early to throw in the towel.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Fire Button
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Sam Perlozzo's job appears to be in jeopardy:

If the ax hanging over Sam Perlozzo's head is going to fall, as the speculation grows stronger that it will, it might as well fall sooner than later. No, it isn't all his fault. It never is all the manager's fault. But no one can, or should, survive pushing every wrong button for such an extended period of time, even if it has become increasingly obvious that he doesn't have many buttons to push.

Danys Baez is one of his buttons, and when he pushed it in the eighth inning yesterday at RFK Stadium, after the tying run came to the plate with one out, it practically detonated in his face. Again.

Twice in a week he pulled a starter for no good reason other than the pitcher was close to 100 pitches. And for the second time the team blew the lead. So in this case, there is an actual managerial strategy to criticize. Of course, if he leaves Bedard in for another 20 pitches, and he breaks down in his next start, they'll want his head as well.

Perlozzo's troubles go deeper, however:

Nor can Perlozzo survive the lack of support he's getting in the clubhouse. Somebody, anybody with clout, needed to have the manager's back yesterday, or anytime in the past week. Someone in uniform could have shouted down the shouting for Perlozzo's scalp after the Boston debacle; someone could have soothed the fans' wrath in the week since then, speaking up the way some key New York Yankees have publicly stepped up for Joe Torre as their season circles the drain.

Instead, the silence was deafening, the mood grim, nobody even giving much credence to the idea that the Orioles can shrug this off, bounce back, go get 'em next time. Miguel Tejada offered a little bit of that. It wasn't convincing.

It was hard to experience that, especially a day after Perlozzo expressed his support for the struggling, scuffling, yet still sinking players. "I love them to death," he said.

When they don't seem to love you back, though, it's time to pull the plug.

Bring back Davey Johnson! That was the last time the Orioles were good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2007
Closing the Deal
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It looks like the Braves sale will go through today:

The sale was agreed to by the corporations in February, and baseball officials have said the transaction values the team at $461 million.

That seems a bit low for a successful franchise with a National TV audience.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Rays in Orlando
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John Romano talks to Stuart Sternberg and offers analysis of why the Devil Rays are playing in Orlando this week:

"We can survive barely and we can do okay if we get the support of St. Pete and Tampa, " Sternberg said. "We can thrive - which is what everybody in St. Pete and Tampa wants - if I do my job expanding to become a regional franchise. From Port Charlotte up, and Orlando in.

"We have to be a regional franchise."

Look, the man is not a fool. He does not expect three games against Texas in the middle of May to turn the fortunes of a franchise forever stuck in neutral. Attendance will not be goosed at Tropicana Field because Orlando, Lakeland or Kissimmee suddenly became Rays towns.

But, really, that was not the purpose of this series. Sternberg's plan is grander. He sees advertising dollars. He sees demographics. He sees marketing.

And he sees lots and lots of television sets.

Before the Rays moved into Orlando's ballpark, they invaded Central Florida's airwaves. The Rays increased their TV package from around 25 to 67 games.

This means a market that was the 27th largest in the United States, according to the latest census, has Rays games on TV several nights a week all summer long.

"Would I rather have 30, 000 people in the stadium or 1-million watching on TV?" Sternberg said. "I think I would probably rather have 1-million people watching on TV. It's more important to know that 1-million people do care. And, from a money standpoint and the advertising, there's more revenue derived there.

Sternberg is not making the mistake baseball made in the early 1950s, when television hurt attendance. Television gets people interested in the team, so when the team gets good, the fan base is there to come to the ballpark. From a marketing perspective at least, the Devil Rays are in good hands.

And providing an exciting win sure helps.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 12, 2007
Beane vs. Ricciardi
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Earlier today I criticized J.P. Ricciardi:

Of all the Moneyball GMs in baseball, Ricciardi is the most disappointing. He never seems to have the extra piece in the minors or the ability to make the trade for that player with the overlooked skill.

Which is exactly what Billy Beane did with Jack Cust:

Jack Cust hit a ball about as long as his minor-league resume and helped turn a tense Friday night at the Coliseum into a rollicking A's victory.

Cust, whom the A's acquired from San Diego in a minor-league deal May 3, unloaded on a C.C. Sabathia fastball with two outs and a runner aboard in the seventh inning. Cust's two-run blast to right broke a 1-1 tie and was his fourth homer in five games, and third in two days, for Oakland. The A's tacked on three more runs in the inning and rolled to an 8-2 win over Cleveland.

A first-round pick of the Diamondbacks in 1997, Cust made it to the big leagues with Arizona in 2001 at age 22. Since then, though, his baseball life has been much more Colorado Springs than Colorado, much more Sacramento than Oakland.

Cust through 2006 posted a .429 OBA and a .514 slugging percentage in the minor leagues, and somehow only received 144 major league at bats. In his 19 AB with the A's this season, he's hit four homers and drew four walks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:01 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 11, 2007
Shaking Up the Lineup
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Jim Tracy changed the top of the Pirates lineup yesterday, and it worked:

In the first six games of this trip, the players who started in the top three lineup spots -- primarily Duffy, Wilson and Sanchez -- were a combined 14 for 82 with three walks. They scored five runs, one of those on Duffy's home run Sunday in Milwaukee.

Yesterday, Sanchez, Bautista and Jason Bay reached base a combined six times and scored four runs.

To his credit, Tracy doesn't see the lineup shift as something long term, although Freddy Sanchez belongs up there.

"It's not the lineup you want to stick with. There are flaws to this one, too. There isn't any base-stealing speed up at the top. Is it perfect? No. But it's something else to try.

"We're just trying to get something going at the top of our lineup [and] see if we can't get something going offensively. It's the one thing right now that is holding our ballclub up."

If it scores runs, however, steals at the top aren't all that necessary. And given the overall stats of the team, there really isn't a good lineup available.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2007
Maybe They Should Just Charge $7 a Glass
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The Yankees joined the Oakland Athletics in banning beer from both home and visiting clubhouses. Frankly, I think it's an over-reaction. If someone gets drunk in the clubhouse, the teams have the resources and the power to drive the player home safely. It's what happens outside the clubhouse that usually causes the problems.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:31 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
May 04, 2007
Gator Negator
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Phillip Baudrand takes issue with Ron Guidry's coaching of the Yankees' pitching staff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 03, 2007
Sitting Round the Table
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The Biz of Baseball organizes a round table of economists who discuss a number of baseball issues related to the economics of the game. Well worth the read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Strength Training
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I asked Bob Sikes at Getting Paid to Watch to weigh in on the Yankees firing Marty Miller:

I saw that story late last evening when I arrived home from spring football practice. I didn't know Miller, but was rather surprised to learn he'd been hired from a health club. Another thing I'm coming to realize is just how separate strength coaches are from the athletic trainers (ATCs). The Yankees have two of the very best in the business in Gene Monahan and Steve Donahue. I believe that Monahan may currently be the dean of athletic trainers in the major leagues. Donahue and I worked in the International League together during the early 80's.

At any rate, strength coaches did not begin becoming a fixture for major league teams until the late 80's and its wasn't until the 90's that all teams had them. Conditioning and strength training as it was had been handled by the ATCs and coaches. For example, pitching coaches ran the pitchers and pre-work-out stretching was handled by the ATCs. Until the Mets brought in Keith Cedro before the 1987 season, I lead team stretching prior to spring training work-outs. Once the season began, Davey Johnson preferred to let players handle their own warm-up activities. Only when Buddy Harrelson took over did the Mets start stretching as a team before games. Only a few teams in the National League actually had weight rooms.

This is far less involved than what teams do now. And strength coaches that MLB teams bring in have a wider variety of philosophies than does the NFL. They also have autonomy that's separate from what the traditional medical staff's - ATC's and team physicians - operate under. I've found this to be an unsound development in the politics of the game as the professional educational and professional development of ATCs includes all principals of conditioning. I'm going to get hate mail on this, but unless a strength coach has a master's level degree in Exercise Physiology and a certification by the National Strength and Conditioning Association , his or her preparation is not that of what ATCs have. I've felt that baseball executives have never really given ATCs the respect they deserve nor leaned on them in medical matters.
However, major league players have long appreciated our work and generously includes ATCs in their benefit package. Perhaps this is what's caused the schism as management perceives ATCs as part on the Player's Union.

Someone asked me to respond to the high number of abdominal injuries that seemed to be occurring. Although this is anecdotal, I agreed with the general observation. How I replied was that in previous years it seemed that these types of injuries occured mostly among pitchers. I hypothesized that that perhaps players trunks were being over-trained and trained for one-rep power. Most activities in baseball are done multiple times.

The hamstring has its own unique role in biomechanics. Running involves the hamstring to fire both types of contractions-concentric and eccentric. Or in laymen terms, shortening the muscle and then lengthening it under stress. Weight room activities are designed to supplement and athletes ability to run. If Miller desired to decrease the amount of running in favor of something else, he made a decision that's ended up burning many professionals.

Thanks, Bob.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:02 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 02, 2007
Fire the New Guy!
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The Yankees did fire somebody today:

The Yankees fired first-year strength and conditioning coach Marty Miller on Wednesday, on the heels of yet another hamstring injury to one of their players.

The players didn't like Miller's approach:

Though the rash of similar injuries possibly could be explained by bad luck, Cashman determined that cause and effect could not be ruled out. Sources say Miller's methods were not popular with the Yankees, and the players were in near-revolt over the situation. Miller's approach included a de-emphasis of running as a way to build leg strength.

Does anyone in the training community have any insights into running vs. other leg exercises? I don't know if this is a bad idea that didn't work or incompetence on Cashman's part.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
No Real Competition
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Russell Roberts at Cafe Hayek writes on the lack of economic competition in baseball:

My claim is that baseball, while competitive (in the everyday sense of the word), is not a very good testing ground for the power of competition as economists use the term. It's not a very good measure of how competition works in markets even though there is a "market" for baseball players in the everyday sense of the word.

The biggest problem with generalizing from baseball to the rest of the economy is that if you do a lousy job in baseball, you still make a lot of money. That is hard to do in most markets. In most markets, if you fail to keep up with your competitors, if you use outdated technology, if you fail to please the customer, you don't just make less money than your competitors. You go out of business.

In baseball, you can have an inept owner who hires an inept general manager, who signs inept players (or who doesn't bother signing ept ones), who fails to spend sufficient money on the fundamental assets necessary to excel, who signs players who do the little things and the big things badly, who neglects the team's farm system. You can perform poorly, year after year and you can not only survive, you can thrive.

Since 1998, the Kansas City Royals have been horrible. They have won more games than they've lost only once in that span. The other years, they've been dreadful. They've lost 100 games or more four times since 1998. Yet according to Forbes, the value of the franchise doubled between 1998 and 2005.

There are ways around this within the structure of major league baseball. MLB should want each of their fanchises to be as strong as possible, because that's best for the growth of the game overall. This is something I'll discuss in a future Baseball Prospectus column. My latest is up here (subscription only).

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2007
No Firings
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No one is going to fire Torre or Cashman:

"The season is still very young, but up to now the results are clearly not acceptable to me or to Yankee fans," Steinbrenner said in a statement. "However, Brian Cashman, our general manager, Joe Torre, our manager, and our players all believe that they will turn this around quickly.

"I believe in them. I am here to support them in any way to help them accomplish this turnaround. It is time to put excuses and talk away. It is time to see if people are ready to step up and accept their responsibilities. It is time for all of them to show me and the fans what they are made of.

"Let's get going. Let's go out and win and bring a world championship back to New York. That's what I want."

The Yankees are basically in the same situation they were two years ago, except they're trailing the Red Sox instead of the Orioles. The starters lasted longer in games that season, but they were getting hammered, too.

In my opinion, the Yankees need to rethink bullpen use in light of their starters' short outings. More innings per appearance, less repeat appearances. It goes against conventional wisdom right now, but the Yankees are in far from a conventional situation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
April 25, 2007
Revenue Sharing
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A new form of league revenue sharing sprung up around Daisuke Matsuzaka:

The Rangers are among several Major League Baseball teams capitalizing on the Sox's $103 million investment in Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka by selling ballpark advertising to Japanese companies. Those firms, which include a chain of men's day spas, are trying to get their message across to fans watching broadcasts of Major League Baseball games back in Japan. The Rangers and Kansas City Royals have already sold ad space worth hundreds of thousands of dollars inside their own stadiums, though neither team has a Japanese baseball star. Several other teams have also gotten inquiries from Japanese firms about advertising when the Red Sox are playing.

"Teams like the Kansas City Royals are benefiting from the Red Sox," said Sam Kennedy , Sox vice president of sales and marketing.

The Sox, though, won't see much new revenue from Japanese sponsors at Fenway Park because most of the advertising space was sold long ago to American companies. It's also far more expensive to advertise at Fenway compared to other baseball venues.

Don't you just love global communications?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2007
Ranking the GMs
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Soccer Dad doesn't like Forbes ranking of the top ten baseball GMs. He feels there's too much business, not enough baseball in the calculations.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:29 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2007
Stretching It Out
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Bruce Bochy's desire to stretch out his pitchers in games concerns John Perricone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 18, 2007
Insurance
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Last night whle we were talking to Bill James, I asked about insurance on long-term contracts. It was my understanding that insurance companies wouldn't go longer than three years anymore. Bill thought that was right. He also told us the Red Sox talked about insurance on Matsuzaka, but he never heard how that worked out. He gave us two reasons why so many long term deals were offered over the off-season.

  1. The GMs who made the deals probably won't last until the end of the deal, so it's going to be someone else's problem.
  2. The Red Sox expected the cost per season to go up more than it did. Instead, teams extended contract length. Bill's feeling is that many of these teams don't expect to get contributions from these players toward the end of their contracts. Instead of paying the same money over five years, they're paying it over seven or eight.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Signs in Philadelphia
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Charlie Manuel blew up at a critic last night:

Most of the time he answers those critics amiably and with little animosity, but last night was not one of those times. On the heels of a lifeless, 8-1 loss to the Mets, with his most incessant critic prodding him to throw a clubhouse tirade, Manuel instead unleashed a profanity-filled 10-minute tongue-lashing toward the critic inside his office, adding an extra dose when their eyes met in the clubhouse minutes later.

"I think they see me angry more than you think [they] do," Manuel said as his emotions heated up. "I think maybe you don't see me angry. I can show you that I can get angry."

"Maybe if you did that to a player, you think that would work?" taunted the critic.

The rest was not for family consumption.

It's not fair, but part of a manager's job is to deal with the press. Manuel did that poorly last night. The other thing that bothers me is this:

As Manuel said before last night's game, "Here, they are going to blame the manager. And if that's the way it is, that's OK. But look: I don't strike out and I don't miss a popup and I don't make baserunning mistakes. And we're talking about major league players."

Those were sentiments expressed often by Bowa, especially amid his final season.

Manuel was also not on the field in the sixth inning when the Phillies recorded three outs on the Mets - and needed to be waved into the dugout by the umpires. This offseason, coaches were hired ostensibly to firm up the fundamentals this team is so often lacking. Nothing has changed. They still stall going uphill.

So Charlie is blaming the players. That isn't leadership. There's another part of the story where Manuel talks about being the same manager he was in the minors. That's fine, but he was a teacher. I'm not sure this team needs a teacher as much as they need a leader.

The Phillies are in the Goldilocks situation. Bowa was too tough. Manuel is too nice. They need a manager who's just right. I hear Davey Johnson's looking to get back in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
April 16, 2007
Pushing the Right Buttons
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Bob Melvin made the right choice at first base yesterday:

Manager Bob Melvin sounded pained before the game when asked about his decision to start Clark over first baseman Conor Jackson for a second day in a row. Melvin explained that he wanted another left-handed bat in the lineup against Rockies starter Byung-Hyun Kim, emphasizing that Jackson still should be considered the club's everyday first baseman.

You can't argue with the results. Clark blasted a towering, 420-foot, two-run home run to the left of the batter's eye in center field in the first inning, then connected for a solo shot to lead off the fourth.

No reason to feel pain. Jackson hasn't shown much power vs. righties yet. The more he sees, the better he'll get, but the Diamondbacks need to win games as well. It's a selective platoon, and that's fine.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 15, 2007
La Russa a Genius Again
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The Braden Looper experiment continues to work as the former reliever picks up his second win as the Cardinals defeat the Brewers 10-2. He struck out three in six innings, but he allowed just five hits. Still his strike percentage was low, and you have to wonder how long this will last.

What's more worrisome is Ben Sheets. In his five innings of work he walked three and struck out just two. And since his complete game on opening day, he's been hittable. Ben Sheets at 100% makes the Brewers a much better playoff contender.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:48 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 12, 2007
Handling Hustle
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Jerry Narron removed Edwin Encarnacion from the game last night. The third baseman did not run out a pop fly. It appeared to be an honest mistake, but Narron sent the proper message:

Narron said the 24-year-old Encarnacion, in his third big league season, has always hustled for him. He added that Encarnacion likely would be back in the lineup when the Reds open a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field Friday.

"I love him," Narron said. "I think he's going to be a great player. He messed up. But doggone it, you can't be messing up in this game like that by not hustling. If you don't know where the ball is, you run until you find out where it is.

"He has never dogged it," Narron said. "It was probably an honest mistake, but it was a mistake."

Good for Jerry. He didn't get mad, he talked to the player, and sent a message not just to Edwin, but to the whole team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 10, 2007
Measuring Genius
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After Braden Looper's fine outing, Get Up, Baby introduces the Dave Duncan Geniusometer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 02, 2007
Why People Don't Like La Russa
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It's never his fault when something goes wrong.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 01, 2007
Farming Techniques
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Nick Piecoro examines how the Diamondbacks plan to control costs by keeping their farm system stocked:

Young players eventually get expensive through arbitration and free agency, which makes constantly replenishing the talent supply vital. Ken Kendrick, the Diamondbacks' managing general partner, said the club has made this a focal point the past few years.

"The money that maybe some teams have spent on major league payroll, we've spent in the development side of the business, which encompasses the scouting director, assistant scouting director, scouts, player development, all of those things," Kendrick said.

"There are a number of additional staff on board with the Diamondbacks now than in the years when I first got involved. That budget has increased pretty substantially and we think if you get the right people and spend a certain amount of money and do a good job, that's a way that you can continue to be competitive for a long period of time."

That's the right idea. The next couple of seasons will show if they can execute on the plan.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 22, 2007
Asleep at the Wheel
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The police busted Tony La Russa for drunk stopping:

Police arrested St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa on a charge of driving under the influence of alcohol, a misdemeanor, after he was found sleeping at a green light in his running Ford SUV about midnight at Frederick Small Boulevard and Military Trail.

Police on Thursday said they grew suspicious because the running SUV was stopped at a light that went through two cycles of green. A driver behind it had to go around, police said.

Rough day at the ballpark? The Cardinals pitching staff owns the best ERA in spring training, so it's not like there's a lot of pressure on Tony right now. Maybe he's just part of the long history of hard drinking, successful managers.

I wonder if he'll serve as his own attorney?

Update: There's a great map of the incident scene at Deadspin.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
March 19, 2007
Spring Renewal
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On the last day of winter, Jeff Euston rounds up the renewed pre-arbitration players. I hope someone follows this for a few years. I'd love to see a study of how renewing or taking players to arbitration effects that player leaving for free agency or staying.

One interesting thing this year is that teams took the increase in the minimum salary as part of a player's raise:

Complicating matters this off-season is a significant increase in the minimum major-league salary, which jumps from $327,000 last season to $380,000 for 2007. Player agents see the new minimum as a starting point, while clubs tend to view the $53,000 jump in the minimum as a significant pay raise by itself.

The Marlins, who lead the league in young players, renewed 12 players on their 40-man roster, nine of them at the $380,000 minimum. Florida renewed Hanley Ramirez' (contract) deal for $402,000, a $75,000 raise over 2006. Yet Ramirez's 2007 salary will be just $22,000 more than the 2007 minimum, making him just the second Rookie of the Year to make less than $25,000 more than the following year's league minimum (Oakland renewed 2005 AL Rookie of the Year Huston Street (contract) for 2006 at $339,625, just $12,625 more than the minimum).

So a number of good second year players are just making over the minimum, because they are seen by the clubs as getting a big raise anyway. Eventually, it this will work itself out, but this particular class of second year players is taking a hit due to the change. I suspect it will take a couple of season to work itself out as well. As this class gets a bigger raise next season, the 2007 first years will be behind that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:07 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 15, 2007
Long Term Mark
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The Cleveland Indians extended the contract of GM Mark Shapiro through the 2012 season:

After winning only 68 games in 2003, the Indians jumped to 80 wins in 2004. The following season Cleveland went 93-69 but missed the playoffs when they collapsed in the season's final week. However, Shapiro was named baseball's top executive by the Sporting News.

The Indians were expected to contend last season, but a poor start coupled with baseball's worst bullpen resulted in a 78-84 record and fourth-place finish in their division.

The Indians are a trendy pick to win the AL Central this season. I'm not sure I buy that. They've underperformed their Pythagorean projections two years in a row. Last year, they outscored their opponents by 88 runs, but still posted a losing record. Was this:

  • A run of bad luck?
  • Poor in-game management?
  • Poor construction of the team?

The contract extension indicates that the Indians ownership doesn't think it's the last option. It's may be number one, but if we that happen again, I'd suspect Wedge's job will be on the line.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
March 08, 2007
Spring Money
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Jason McAdams sends along this story of how teams lose money on spring training. What's interesting here is in this instance, the local merchants do well, while the clubs and municipalities lose out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:43 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Yost Does the Math
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Ned Yost reads sabermetric books. And why not? Information is vital for success, and even if he doesn't use everything, he at least is making an informed decision. I suspect a lot of the younger managers are up on this, even if they keep the books locked away at home.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 07, 2007
Baltimore Timetable
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Peter Schmuck points out that the Orioles positioned 2009 to be a key year for them.

The Orioles are close to a deal to extend Brian Roberts ' contract through the 2009 season. Melvin Mora 's contract extension, signed last May, also runs through 2009. Aubrey Huff signed a three-year deal in January. Top young pitcher Erik Bedard has three more seasons before he will be eligible for free agency.

So, if it appears that the front office is targeting 2009 as the year when the long-struggling Orioles must reach their full potential, appearances are not deceiving.

Perhaps you noticed that Miguel Tejada was not among the aforementioned class of 2009, but that was no oversight. Tejada's six-year contract also runs out in 2009, which isn't a coincidence.

The Orioles plan is to keep it's core together through 2009 and build it into a winner. If it doesn't happen, I'm guessing they jettison those players and start over with lots of money on hand. This will make the 2009 trading deadline in Baltimore quite interesting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
An Ear for HItting
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Kevin Seizter took over as batting coach for the Diamondbacks this year, and is getting positive reviews. This article, however, doesn't go far enough as to why Seitzer is so good. For example:

Outfielder Dave Krynzel was hitting off a tee one morning early in spring training when he barely mis-hit a ball, the noise echoing off the bat slightly different. Then Krynzel heard Kevin Seitzer's voice behind him: "Keep your stomach tight. Don't open up."

Seitzer, the Diamondbacks' new hitting coach, was correct in his diagnosis, but that wasn't what surprised Krynzel.

"He didn't even see it," Krynzel said. "Me and (Tony Clark) look at each other, and we're like: 'Was he even looking at me?' "

I'd love to hear Seitzer explain what he heard, and why he reacted that way. He coached Raul Ibanez privately, and the Mariner posted a career year in 2006. I'd like to hear from Raul just what Seitzer taught him. It sounds like Seitzer is a great combination of pattern recognizer and teacher. He can not only recognize what's wrong with your swing, but can also verbalize it. That sounds like the perfect coach to me.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 05, 2007
Extending Carlos Guillen
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Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog makes a good case for extending Carlos Guillen through 2011:

Most importantly, the Tigers have a window of opportunity right now. They have a mix of secured veteran talent who have a couple years left in them, as well as some young talent under club control for the next couple years. There is $66 million already committed for 2008 and $58 million for 2009. But after that existing contracts lighten as the Tigers prepare for the impending free agency of Bonderman in 2011 and Verlander in 2012. I know the Tigers don't want to hurt themselves with a bad contract, and that they already have one in Magglio Ordonez, but they will have flexiblity come 2010.

The Tigers need to capitalize on the next few years. If it means paying Carlos Guillen in 2010 and 2011 to keep him a part of the team in 2008 and 2009 I think it the Tigers have to do it. There just aren't alternatives available, unless you want to put all your eggs in a potential Alex Rodriguez basket.

The other option would be to find a team that's willing to trade a prospect that's close to major league ready for pitching, similar to the deal the Marlins and Red Sox made last year. Of course, the result of that deal may make teams a little gun shy about pulling the trigger on such a deal again.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 04, 2007
Perlozzo Adapts
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Jeff Zrebiec explores the adjustments Sam Perlozzo made as he heads into his second season as the manager of the Orioles:

An epiphany hit Perlozzo toward the end of the 2006 season, when the Orioles went 70-92, extending their franchise-high streak to nine straight losing seasons. Things had to change, he realized. Too much time in the clubhouse was being spent worrying about how much better the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays were than the Orioles.

There was too much of a sense of resignation that the club was going to be a fourth-place team in the American League East and nothing was going to change that. There were too many issues -- players being late, not running out ground balls, complaints about playing time -- that were indicative of a losing team. Players simply weren't holding each other accountable.

"You have to change the losing mentality in some way," Perlozzo said. "The first part is to add better players. The second part is to get them to play as a team and trust each other. We added better players, we have a good staff and now it's up to us to have a better team.

"I am not going to relax. There were times last year where I knew that we were just as good as we were, but the worst thing you can say is that, 'It is what it is.' That's what breeds losing. 'It is what it is' makes you a loser."

He's become more demanding of his players and his coaches. Time will tell if this leads to more wins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
March 03, 2007
Temperament
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Strong words against Ozzie Guillen at Getting Paid to Watch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:19 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
March 01, 2007
The Glamorous Life of an Assistant GM
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Patrick Sullivan interviews Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer at The Baseball Analysts. If you think he leads an exciting life, there's this:

Pat: So from the day you were hired until now, can you share the most mundane task ever assigned to you and the best, most impactful and high-profile work you have done?

Jed: The other night Brian O'Halloran, our Director of Baseball Operations, and I were at a Kinkos in Phoenix putting together arbitration binders until 4:30 in the morning. It doesn't get more mundane than sticking each individual number on a divider while the guy behind the counter is listening to a sci-fi book on tape - and somehow trying to stay awake. That task is up there on the list - and is certainly the most recent.

However, he does get to do exciting work, too:

I have had a ton of great projects too - heading out to Arizona to try to sign Schilling and spending two days in NYC with ARod in December 2003 were great experiences because it is so rare to negotiate without the filter of an agent. I think the most fun I have ever had working for the Red Sox has been preparing for the post-season advance scouting meetings. Every single time I wind up nearly pulling an all-nighter to get all the materials and video ready for the meeting - and it never feels like work. Preparing for a playoff series - and watching how Varitek devours the information and asks incredible questions - is an amazing experience.

The interview is well worth your time.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2007
Managing the Forty
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Jacob Jackson looks at an underappreciated aspect of the Athletics' success, their management of the forty-man roster.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 27, 2007
Friend and Foe
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It seems Joe Girardi lent Jon Lieber a hand last summer:

Lieber said his season with the Philadelphia Phillies turned around shortly after he was roughed up by the Marlins last July 31, and he credits a phone call from Girardi, a former major league catcher. They played together with the Chicago Cubs from 2000-02.

"He just mentioned that the hitters said everything that was coming in was just very flat," Lieber told the Philadelphia Daily News. "I wasn't on top of the ball like I should have been."

Both teams contended for the NL wild-card berth, and Lieber beat the Marlins twice in September.

If the Marlins knew about this, I'd say that would be a good reason to fire Joe. That doesn't appear to be the case. I understand wanting to help a friend, but at least wait until the off-season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Cry Wolff
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Athletics Nation is soliciting opinions on the owners of the Oakland franchise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2007
Peterson Pep Talks
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MetsBlog.com links to two articles on what makes Rick Peterson a fine communicator.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 25, 2007
A Fresh Wash
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Evan Grant documents the changes at the Texas Rangers camp under Ron Washington:

This year, the shrubs are gone, and fans have been invited some 30 feet closer to the pitchers. The assigned seating is gone. The flag poles are bare. Washington walks everywhere. And the pre-camp meeting lasted all of 20 minutes.

"The message he gave was short and sweet," Young said. "It was, 'I'm here for you guys, and we're all here for each other.' It was basically, 'Let's make sure we have each other's back.' It's a great feeling knowing the manager has your back."

Said reliever C.J. Wilson: "His talk was so personal. When he speaks, it's all completely original and from the heart. He put the responsibility in the middle of the [clubhouse], and now it's our responsibility to take him up on that."

Though Washington's speech lacked theatrics, its message was remarkably similar to the one Bob Brenly delivered the Arizona Diamondbacks as Showalter's replacement in 2001. Brenly dropped a large player development manual written by Showalter on the ground and pulled out a cocktail napkin to show the team. The team went on to win the World Series.

It almost as if Buck, in all his jobs, stored a lot of potential energy in his teams, but someone else was needed to convert that potential to wins. Showalter would the players into tight springs, and the next skipper was able to channel the unwinding into winning baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 19, 2007
Gibbons Extended
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John Gibbons received a one year extension and a raise from the Blue Jays. I guess finishing second in the division out weighed his run-ins with players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Prospecting the Twins
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Aaron Gleeman lists the Twins top forty prospects. They're very strong on pitching, but not too many bats are on the list.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 18, 2007
Yost on the Rise
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Ned Yost is exuding confidence:

Ned Yost is an energetic, ultra-optimistic type by nature who brings a passion to his job that is refreshing in the often jaded world of professional sports.

That focused approach, combined with Yost's unwavering confidence in his method of operation, makes even the most cynical of observers take note when the Milwaukee Brewers manager presents his vision of the not-so-distant future of the franchise.

"Are we going to get there and win a world championship? I'm 100% convinced of it," said Yost, who is beginning his fifth year at the helm of the club.

"I think it's set in stone, in my mind. When? I don't know. It could be this year, it could be next year. But, for me, it's written in stone. And I'm going to work every single day to try to accomplish that goal."

I have no idea if the Brewers will win soon, but I like Ned's attitude.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 17, 2007
Cito in Seattle
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Detect-o-Vision wonders if the Mariners might bring in Cito Gaston if Hargrove and the team falters early. He also wonders why Gaston never got another job:

I don't buy for a second the idea that Cito is frozen out because he's black, and doubt that many D-O-V readers would either. There are any number of black managers who get as many go-rounds as the average white manager, including black managers with very strong personalities, such as Frank Robinson. In America 2007, white-bread people like Tiger and Bernie Mac and Wesley Snipes more than black people do. My wife has seen that Guess Who movie at least 30 times...

You can be sure there is something behind the scenes on Gaston. Not necessarily something sinister, but something that makes him extremely unappealing, competency-wise or personality-wise or private-life-wise or whatever.

Well, this was the man who wasted John Olerud's talents. Cito benched John in the World Series so Molitor could stay in the lineup, and then decided Olerud was a platoon player. With Toronto, in a hitter's park, during his peak years Olerud's averages were .296/.397/.471. You'd think a manager would want a player like that in the lineup every day. After John left, those number were .296/.400/.466. And that's playing home games in Shea and Safeco, neither the hitters havens that was Skydome.

No, Gaston won despite himself. I don't know if there's a deep, dark secret about him, but not recognizing Olerud's talent is enough to keep him out of my club house.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching Stability
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Ron Washington is going to try to keep the Texas pitching staff stable this year:

For Washington's part, he plans to show faith in the pitchers by giving them more opportunities to prove themselves. He expects to use spring to make decisions about a pitching staff, then try not to mess around with it on a weekly basis.

In the four years under Buck Showalter, the Rangers averaged more than a pitching move per week (either an option, a disabled list assignment or designation for assignment for the purpose of removing the pitcher from the roster) during the regular season. Last year, the Rangers made 28 such moves from April through August. Oakland, beset by injuries, made 23. The Los Angeles Angels made 15 such moves and Seattle 14.

"I want to develop stability in the starting rotation," Washington said. "I don't want those guys looking over their shoulders. It's my job - every manager's job - to build confidence. I'm going to let them know from the very beginning that they can do it and that we expect them to do it. But we also know there are going to be some bumps, and I want them to know I'll give them a chance to show me it's just a bump. I want them to keep us in games and I'm going to give them every opportunity to do that."

I remember Bill James writing about managing pitching staffs in a high run envirornment. He felt that too many pitching changes was bad for a staff. Every time you take a pitcher out of a game (at least back then), you're communicating failure. Sometimes, they just need to take their lumps and learn from the experience. Sounds like Washington is taking a similar approach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chaos from Order
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Bill Livingston calls into question Eric Wedge's skills as a manager:

Eric Wedge gets to the ballpark be fore the alligators in Lake Lulu graze for breakfast. He reconfigures his lineup. He consults with his coaches. He listens to new consultant Buck Showalter's take on his team. He probably deconstructs the infield fly rule.

Then, all too often, he sends the Indians out to have a pie fight.

Seldom has anyone prepared so meticulously and gotten such chaos in return. Something must be getting lost in translation because Wedge's workload is real, not exaggerated. Yet the results often seem minimal when the Indians run amok on the bases, fail to get a bunt down, or let a rundown play peter out like a battery out of juice.

Overall, this is pretty fair criticism. Does Wedge not communicate his vision to his players? Is there a lack of clarity coming from the manager and coaches on how to execute during the game? Or is Wedge just putting the wrong personnel on the field? When Eric took down Milton Bradley, I thought he was showing strong leadership. Was that just a moment of clarity for Wedge? Livingston concludes that Wedge's job should be on the line:

The feeling here has been that Shapiro is reluctant to admit a mistake in hiring Wedge. All his supportive gestures during slumps might be better spent on instilling a sense of urgency in the manager. Five years is a long time in sports. The Indians need to play October baseball again.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:51 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
February 16, 2007
Finding Money
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It looks like the Twins have enough money coming off the books next year to pay to keep their star players around:

Entering the offseason, it appeared the Twins had a good chance of locking up all three players to multiyear deals. They had just completed a season in which they had a windfall in ticket and merchandise sales, $18.5 million was off the books with veterans Brad Radke and Shannon Stewart gone, and the team held true to its philosophy of not going after big-money free agents.

But then the market skyrocketed, and it became apparent in mid-January that a 3-for-3 offseason was a long shot when Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer each filed for a salary of at least $1 million more than the Twins offered.

"I'm never going to have everything that I want," Ryan said. "But we took a pretty good run at" trying to sign Cuddyer and Morneau to multiyear deals.

After this season, the Twins could have more money to make a run at signing Cuddyer and Morneau to multiyear contracts. The contracts for veterans Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz are set to expire at the end of the season, potentially taking $25.2 million off the books.

With $8 million going to Mauer, that leaves $35 million to divvy up between Santana, Morneau and Cuddyer. Seems that's plenty to raise Santana to $25 million a year (from $10 million) and give the other two long term contracts, especially if revenue keeps rising. Twins fans, time to get out to the park and support your team!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 13, 2007
Supply and Demand
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Nick and Nick make a supply and demand argument for signing Mauer long term and Morneau short term:

Another potential reason for locking up Mauer while hesitating to do the same for Morneau actually has nothing to do with the performance of those two players. The fact is that the Twins pretty much need Mauer to be around for the next several years, whereas that may not be the case with Morneau. Why do I say that? Well, the Twins have almost no catching prospects in their entire minor league system. The most promising backstop in their organization could very well be Chris Heintz, and he's 33. That's probably an overstatement, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a catcher at any level of the Twins' minor league system who has real major league potential at this point. Mike Redmond is a nice player, but he'll be turning 36 this season and will be gone soon enough. Once that happens, the Twins would be in very bad shape if they lost Mauer.

Meanwhile, the organization's lower-level minor league teams feature three promising first-base prospects.

Or, if you have a problem at first base, it's usually easy to solve.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
February 12, 2007
Brave New Sale?
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There's a report the Braves are about to be sold. However, I'm not sure I understand the pricing:

The deal, which must still be approved by Major League Baseball, would involve Time Warner transferring the Braves, a group of craft magazines and $1 billion in cash to Liberty in exchange for about 60 million shares of Time Warner, the Journal reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the deal.

Based on the closing price of Time Warner's stock Monday, the market value of those shares would be about $1.27 billion.

Does this mean the Braves are being valued at less than $270,000,000? That seems pretty cheap for a bad franchise these days. Either that, or Time Warner thinks its stock is going way up in future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Understanding Tracy
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Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke is concerned that he still doesn't have a handle on Jim Tracy.

It's been over a year since Tracy's hire and I still don't know what I think about him, which has to be a bad sign.

It's a good read about a manager whose actions during last season make it difficult to evaluate him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 11, 2007
Managing Talent
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The previous post praised the Twins management team. Another organization on the right track is the Arizona Diamondbacks:

"I think that's fair to say," Moorad said. "Coming off 111 losses in 2004 wasn't easy. But at this point, as we look at a retooled future and a healthy, competitive team in '07, we think we have a chance to win this season as well as into the future.

"The division has improved as a whole, but if we stay healthy, I think we have an excellent chance of winning the division."

Arizona's "retooled future" includes a rotation buoyed by the acquisitions of left-handers Randy Johnson and Doug Davis. They'll join reigning Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb and workhorse Livan Hernandez to form a rotation that appears to be dependable and, if all goes well, could be among the National League's best.

For General Manager Josh Byrnes, it was a second consecutive winter in which he refused to part with the club's better prospects - and didn't sign any free agents to long-terms deals - yet managed to shore up weaknesses. And he kept the payroll in the mid-$60 million range, where it has been in the franchise's post-Colangelo years.

"We felt like we met most of our objectives in the off-season," Byrnes said. "We're anxious to see how it plays out on the field."

The team is developing a good, young core. Their filling in the holes with short term veterans. It's a great way to put together a winner without breaking the bank.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference
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My thanks go out to the staff of the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference, especially Patricia Favreau for the press credential. The group staged informative sessions with high powered executives and decision makers. The logistics were excellent, from the food to the classrooms and lecture halls used for the presentations. They're to be congratulated!

The conference left me hopeful for the future of the sports industry. Given the attendance, there are a very large number of young business people looking to make their mark in the world of sports. Unfortunately for them, there are only a limited number of jobs. With supply outstripping demand, the sports industry gets to hire the most extraordinary applicants and pay them ordinary wages (at least as entry level employees). I hope this means we're in for an era of business innovation among all sports.

It also means some of these students will create new businesses to complement the sports world. Creating markets for tickets, predictive modeling and data visualization are some of the niche companies already selling their products. So through further infiltration of the management ranks and entrepreneurship, smart young business men and women are going to change the landscape of sports over the generation.

One thing that was disappointing to the students, however, was that there's not a clear path to take to a job in sports. The people who led the career panel, and others the students spoke with all talked about how their careers were not planned, they came about by a series of lucky coincidences (that's certainly the case with me).

Ricciardi's keynote session was very good. He mostly talked of Toronto's successes in the last few years, mainly bringing a large financial loss down to near break even, even profit in some years. Interestingly, the biggest reason he gave for that was the purchase of the Rogers Center. By owning the stadium, the Jays control all the revenue generated by the park, with works greatly to their advantage. Maybe other teams want to think about that before they have the public build them a stadium.

He also spoke of some of the successes and failures they've had bringing players to Toronto. Kerry Ligtenberg was a pitcher that the stats loved. He failed in Toronto, however, because his makeup wasn't suited for the AL East. Scott Shoenweiss was a pitcher the Blue Jays analyzed and decided he should be a lefty specialist. That worked well for the 2005 season. Mike Bordick was at the end of his career. Ricciardi loved Mike from their time in Oakland, and brought Bordick over to finish his career. He was a huge help to the young players, especially Orlando Hudson, and Ricciardi said the other players on the team were begging him not to retire. And finally, there was Frank Catalanatto, who they saw as a solid hitter and were able to sign inexpensively. Ricciardi called him the gift that keeps on giving, as his signing by the Texas Rangers yielded the Blue Jays two draft choices.

Ricciardi also had the best line of the day when asked about clutch hitting. He talked about how there are players who don't panic in certain situations, who can "slow the game down." He mentioned how David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were like that and added, "I've known Manny since he was 15, and I don't think he knows the game is on the line." The Boston crowd loved it.

The Personnel Decisions Panel featured Bill James, and for me the most important idea to come out of that panel didn't involve players. When asked where the research was going next, Bill felt that (at least in baseball), we're spending lots of time looking at the details. Mr. James feels that someone needs to go back to the big picture. Twenty years ago he would sit down and compose letter to teams about what they were doing wrong (although he never sent them). Now he finds himself composing letters to the commissioner. He was trying to answer big questions about what makes teams win and lose back then. Now he wants someone to ask the questions about what make leagues successful. This was driven home during the cocktail hour, when a consultant for an NBA team was explaining how the current salary cap and luxury tax created perverse incentives for teams. It's time to start developing stats on how teams and leagues operate.

The Sports Technology panel provided insight into where the entrepreneurs are heading in the world of sports. I was most excited by yOOnew, a new company that sells ticket futures. Right now, it's just selling hedge tickets. That is, the company offers tickets for major sporting events at a discount, with the risk that you may not go. So, for example, you buy a ticket for the final four that good if UConn makes it that far. The risk of the ticket is spread out among all the fans of teams that might make it that far. So you pay a low price, to go if your teams makes it, and only lose a little if your team doesn't go. What's cool to me is that this company is creating the infrastructure for moving this to a full blown futures market in all tickets.

PROTRADE is a stock market for players. Right now, it's all in virtual dollars with prizes for the people who do the best, but it could be turned into a real market someday. These kinds of markets are great for checking your view of a certain player against what others think. There's great wisdom in crowds (the average of many guesses is better than any one guess). So teams and fantasy players might watch the tends here to get a clue as to how the player's future looks. Looking at the ticker right now, for example, Chien-Ming Wang and Kei Igawa are selling at the same price of about $125, although their move to those prices are by very different paths. People can't make up their mind about Wang, but as it becomes clear Igawa gets the fifth slot, his value is steadily rising. Meanwhile Matsuzaka's price sky-rocketed recently.

I hope this conference continues. Given that it was sold out this year, there's room to grow. I'm looking forward to next year's panels to see where the latest innovations and research are taking us.

Links to other panels attended:

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
February 10, 2007
Sports Technology Panel
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On this panel we have Jeff Ma from ProTrade, Matthew Marolda of StatBridge and Gerry Wilson of yOOnew. yOOnew is interesting because you can buy tickets below face value.

Update: yOOnew is a futures market, so people can trade futures of seats! This is a great idea, one that I've advocated here before.

Update: ProTrade is developing sports stock markets. They want to enhance the way people watch and think about sports.

Update: There's a real lovefest for STATS, Inc. here.

Update: Here's the yOOnew page.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:13 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Personnel Decisions Panel
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Rob Neyer is moderating this Panel, and Bill James is one of the panelists. Sam Presti and Daryl Morey are also speaking.

Update: What tools do you use? James uses simulations, win shares, scouting reports, and online sources for the low minors. Bill says most of the trades they consider are for players in the low minors, and that area needs a lot of development.

Update: Here's a picture of the panel:

MitPersonnelPanel.jpg

Bill is talking about the future of sabermetrics. He's saying we're moving more toward fringe ideas since the big ideas have been done. Sabermetricians now need to step back and look at an even bigger picture, how the sport is run, since now sabermetricians have access to clubs.

Update: Here's Rob Neyer looking very professorial.

MITNeyer.jpg

Update: How do you balance long term and short term deals? Bill says humans don't think long term. Bill sees his job as making people look at the long term. If you go to a resturant and the food is bad, you don't say it's a small sample size. If your rookie shortstop doesn't play well for two weeks, you have to be aware of the small sample size.

Update: Bill is asked about rule changes. He says baseball is poor at getting rid of selfish rules, rules that benefit the team but hurt the game. One of these is unlimited pitching changes.

Update: I asked if the growth of size of the pitching staff should lead to a larger roster so that teams can carry more offensive and defensive specialists. Bill said that if we go past 25 men on a roster, we'll end up with lefty specialists entering in the fourth inning instead of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Jamie McCourt Keynote
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Jamie McCourt is giving the keynote address during lunch. Her thesis here at MIT Sloan was on building stadiums.

Correction: Sorry, she wanted to do her thesis on building stadiums, but she couldn't find anyone to advise her.

Update: Here's Ms. McCourt at the podium.

McCourtMIT.jpg


And even the lunch looks nice.

LunchMIT.jpg

Update: Ms. McCourt's speech starts with a "how baseball relates to the American dream" section, but she's getting into analytics now.

Update: She says winning is their equivalent of producing shareholder value.


Update: There's been a lot of talk today about getting to know players and their character. McCourt is expanding on that, how each level of the organization knows the player differently, and how that gets communicated through the organization.

Update: McCourt used to score games when she went to see the Orioles with her dad.

Update: "Players are part of our sales force." MLB as an organization needs to realize that.

Update: As part of remodel of Dodger Stadium, they want to shorten concession lines.

Update: Speech was short on analytics but long on platitudes. We'll see what the questions are like.

Update: How will the Angels name change effect the Dodgers? The Anaheim fans are more annoyed than the Dodgers. Dodger fans thought it was hilarious, because Anaheim is so far away in both distance and culture.

Update: Asked about what women get from baseball (40% of attendance at Dodger Stadium is women), McCourt says it's a romantic game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Minor and Emerging Leagues
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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus is leading this discussion. Judy Scarafile of the Cape Cod Baseball League is on the panel. Jason Chandler of lacrosse, Chris Alpert of the NBA development league, and Doug Homer of the US Soccer Foundation are also on the panel.

Update: Cape Cod Baseball League is going to start streaming video of their games. Their doing so to stay ahead of the New England Collegiate Baseball League, who first decided to start streaming their games.

Update: NBA Development League is not only feeding players and refs to the NBA, but executives to all leagues.

Update: MLB funds all the collegiate summer leagues.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Ricciardi Keynote
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J.P. Ricciardi is about to start his keynote address to the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference.

Update: Here's a crowd shot.

MITJPKeynoteCrowd.jpg

Update: Here's J.P. talking Rockets assistant GM Daryl Morey.

JPGetsReady.jpg

Update: J.P. is giving Sandy Alderson a lot of credit for his development. He notes that in his 16 years in Oakland they won with both low and high payrolls.

Update: Ricciardi notes that the business is tough because everyone criticizes you all the time. He mentions blogs!

Update: Ricciardi stats vs. scouts is a silly line in the sand. He values OBA, Runs, OPS, BB per 9, etc. But he uses his scouts to gather information about the makeup of players. Sometimes the stats tells you things the scouts don't see. Sometimes the scouts can tell you a player won't succeed in the AL East.

Update: Bonds signing, good or bad? Because fans come out to see Barry, it's good for business, but he'll pass on the ethical question.

Update: J.P. says DirecTV deal is a good money deal, but bad for business. Doesn't help game.

Update: I was able to get a question in:

How easy or tough is it to get the field manager to buy into the analytics for strategy?

That got an "excellent question" from J.P. He says that the manager has to be on board with the analytics. The front office provides them with lots of information before the game, but once it starts, it's in the field manager's hands. Ricciardi says he and Gibbons used to be roommates, so they have a great relationship in this regard.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
MIT Conference
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I'm at the Sports Business Conference at MIT. I'm in a career session right now with Len Perna and Steve Bergin. I'm looking forward to a session later today with Bill James and Rob Neyer on personnel decisions. And I'm sitting next to Sal Baxamusa of The Hardball Times.

Update: This is a session for business undergrads and grads. Len Perna suggests to start in tickets. He says it will be below your abilities, but it's a good way to generate revenue. Generating revenue gets you noticed.

Update: Steve Bergin says it's important to get a mentor at your job. Daryl Morey notes his mentors were Bill James and Billy Beane.

Update: A question about women in sports management leads Steve to remark that teams are looking for diversity and are creating opportunities for women. However, the demographic is going to skewed toward men.

Update: Lots of growth in digital content. Madison Square Garden just created a new executive position for digital content, according to Steve.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 09, 2007
Artist at Work
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Is Joe Maddon going to paint the ceiling of Tropicana Field?

Maddon's quote reminds me of Polonius' advice speech in Hamlet. Taken out of the play, it's quoted as some kind of eternal truth, but in context, it's just an old man jabbering.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fredi Gets to Manage
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The verdict is in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 08, 2007
So When Does Littlefield get Fired?
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It seems it's about time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sports Business Conference
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The Sports Business Conference takes place at MIT on Saturday. I'll be attending and live blogging. If you have any questions you think might be interesting to ask, let me know and I'll see what I can do.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 06, 2007
Mazzone Effect
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The Baseball Economist disagrees with Mark Bowman over Leo Mazzone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 31, 2007
Where's Theo
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Some commenters wondered why Theo wasn't so involved in the Todd Helton negotiations. He's been busy:

The Red Sox general manager threw a shutout at the paparazzi, gossip columnists, nosy sportswriters, celebrity bloggers, and any other potential wedding crashers by sneaking off earlier this month to marry Marie Whitney, and also managed to keep their honeymoon a secret.

...

Epstein and his wife are out of the country this week, and his track record suggests that the topic of matrimony will be off-limits when spring training convenes next month in Fort Myers, Fla. -- other than perhaps a little private gloating at his coup in keeping it a secret.

They got married in front of Nathan's hot dog stand at Coney Island. No word if Nathan's also did the catering.

Update: See the comments, the Coney Island part of this story was debunked. It turns out Theo's father was making a joke, or maybe it's just another example of Professor Epstein being a jerk.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
January 30, 2007
Red Sox Racing
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The owners of the Boston Red Sox are getting involved in NASCAR racing.

For Roush Racing, before the ink so much as congeals on John Henry's John Hancock, Roush will have unlocked doors for his Nextel Cup program that have largely been sealed to NASCAR team owners, namely those blocking sponsorship opportunities and fans in the Northeast.

"The Boston Red Sox have 14 million dedicated fans to their brand alone across the country, and most of it in New England," Smith said. "Any penetration into either that fan base, or a baseball fan base in general, that aren't already NASCAR fans, would be a really huge boost to our brand.

And for the Red Sox:

"They likewise see that the sponsor-base in NASCAR is broad and might give them some access for marketing activity," Smith said. "They do marketing activity for golf, for basketball, for colleges, for private clients and so forth, there's extra access to sponsorship.

One thing you have to say for the Red Sox management team, they're always finding creative ways to increase revenue.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 29, 2007
Payroll Questions
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DRays Bay thinks the Tampa Bay payroll is just fine this season:

Now, one thing he left out is that a player and the organization have to mutually agree to a contract that benefits both parties. Given what we have seen organization like the Blue Jays spend unwisely the past year, does spending money guarantee success? Given the quality pitchers that has come available on the free market that could help this team, do you really see Barry Zito signing on to become part of the Devil Rays who are a work in progress? It remains to be seen once the franchise is further along in there plan, what free agents this franchise will attract. But, in year one the wonder twins did a good job in collecting talent for players that they were not going to keep around. In doing so, contracts like Toby Hall's and Aubrey Huff's and several others came off the books and reducing the payroll to a figure we see today. So, I have no problem with how the Rays have spent this off-season. Give this group a chance for their plan to get further along. When the time is right, I'll accept the criticism. Like next year at this time, is more appropriate.

I agree. The Devil Rays did not spend wisely in the past. Now they have a chance to see who develops amongst their youngsters. The real question for me is, will they pay to keep their best players around?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 26, 2007
Astros Out of Arbitration
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Lisa Gray notes the Astros avoided arbitration battles for the 12th year in a row.

Jason Lane - 1.05 mill (up from 454K last year.) Amazing that a player can perform so badly and yet receive double his salary. Of course, if he is cut in ST, he will only receive a small pro-rated portion of the salary.

Adam Everett - 2.8 mill (up from 1.9 mill last year. He can't make much for being a defensive genius - the bucks come from the bat, and Adam is not on the field for his bat.) He can also earn another 150K in incentives.

Morgan Ensberg - 4.35 mill (up from 3.95 mill last year. I guess he must feel pretty guilty about not being honest about his injured shoulder last year, as he didn't ask for much of a raise.)

It is, what, a dozen years since an Astros player last went to arbitration. This is a very good thing, because all arbitration accomplishes is really establishing bad feelings between team and player. Compromise is a MUCH better solution.

Indeed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Few Changes
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Dan Fox wonders why the number of mid-season managerial changes fell off in the last 15 years. Do managers get guaranteed contracts, like players? That would be a good reason not to fire someone. Or, it could be that managerial salaries are so high now, you don't want to be paying two people for half a season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Jury's In
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At least Joe Girardi was on time for spring training! Hats off to Fredi Gonzalez, however, for doing his civic duty.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 25, 2007
Lameness Cured
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The Mets are about to lift Willie Randolph's lame duck status:

Randolph and the Mets agreed to a three-year deal yesterday that is expected to lift the manager's salary to $2 million for the 2008 season, sources familiar with the pact told the Daily News.

The deal will take effect immediately. That means Randolph will get a raise from the money he was due this year under the terms of a three-year contract that was set to expire after this season - double that $700,000 sum, in fact.

Another good move by the Mets. Minaya recognizes that taking care of the good people on your team, whether players or staff, is well worth the money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
January 23, 2007
Complaining About Salaries
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We have our first owner complaining about high salaries:

"What concerns us the most at the moment is the free agency signings that have been occurring the last 90 days and could take baseball out of control", said Lerner, whose family took ownership of the Nationals last July.

Welcome to the big leagues, Mr. Lerner. That's what happens when the game does well, players reap the benefits.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
The Backup
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Cliff Corcoran takes an indepth look at the signing of Miguel Cairo:

Of course the big concern over the Cairo signing is, "what if Jeter or Cano get hurt and he has to start." Well, Jeter missed almost a month and a half at the beginning of the 2003 season, the Yankees replaced him with Erick Almonte, who has since fallen all the way to the independent leagues at age 28, and went 26-11 in his absence, building up a three-game lead in the AL East. In 2000, Chuck Knoblauch missed more than a month and the Yankees went 25-15 with Luis Sojo and Jose Vizcaino filling in, doubling their three game lead in the East over that stretch. Last Year, Robinson Cano missed a similar amount of time and the Yankees went 23-11 with Cairo and Green at the keystone and turned a 2.5 game deficit in the division to a 2 game lead. That's not to say that those players aren't valuable, but that, as the above attempted to illustrate, it's not a disaster to field a replacement level player in the middle infield for a while.

Besides which, the Yankees happen to have one of the best keystone combinations in baseball. Derek Jeter was a legitimate MVP candidate last year and is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer and Robinson Cano is the best second baseman in the American League and likely second only to Chase Utley in all of baseball. The Yankees are not going to be able to properly replace either of those players regardless of the quality of their backup. The best they can do is hope to maintain some baseline level of ability in their absence. Miguel Cairo is the definition of that baseline.

My only comment is that Cliff left Alberto Gonzalez off the list of possible farm hands that could move up. He came over in the Randy Johnson deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 22, 2007
Bargain Infielders
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Metsblog.com notes that compared to Utley, the Mets locked up Reyes and Wright for a very good price. However, note that both of the Mets infielders are four years younger than Utley. So they're going to hit the free-agent market very close to their peak (age 28) while Utley would be in his early 30s. Reyes and Wright are going to be much more valuable as free agents than Utley would have been, simply because of age.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ranking the GMs
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Both Dayn Perry and Phil Rogers rank the baseball GMs today. I thought I'd combine the two to get a consensus. Rogers doesn't rank everyone, so I'll just give you the top 10. I combined the ranking by adding together the place on each list. Here's the resulting order:

RankGM
1-TJohn Schuerholz
1-TTerry Ryan
3Billy Beane
4Walt Jocketty
5Dave Dombrowski
6Brian Cashman
7Kenny Williams
8Pat Gillick
9Larry Beinfest
10Theo Epstein

Beane would be at the top of my list. Does anyone think there should be another GM in the top ten here?

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:30 PM | Comments (26) | TrackBack (0)
January 21, 2007
Changes at the Bottom
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Darnell Coles is optimistic the changes at the top of the Nationals' organization will lead to winning at the bottom. He's the manager of their A affiliate in Burlington, VT.

Coles said Washington Nationals president Stan Kasten, who was president of the Atlanta Braves for 17 years, is committed to rebuilding the organization into a respectable franchise from top to bottom.

"As far as staff goes, he has made some major changes. He has made changes as far as the draft and how they go about looking at the players they want to get and go out and get," Coles said.

"This organization is going to turn around in a hurry. They did it in Atlanta and they're going to do it again here."

We'll keep our eye on the Washington low minors to see if they improve this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 18, 2007
He Can Handle the Truth
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The Detroit Tigers Weblog excerpts Jim Leyland being extremely candid about Neifi Perez. In fact, Jim's brutally honest.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 17, 2007
Reciprocating
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Here's FishStripes take on the Miguel Cabrera arbitration situation:

The Marlins can negotiate with Miguel right up to the hearing, but if history is any indicator, they won't. Not that it matters that much. Cabrera will be with the Marlins one way or the other.

Now that Cabrera has reached his arbitration years expect that he and the club will go before the panel every year. That is assuming he keeps putting up similar numbers. Also expect him to break the "record" every year for years of service.

Here's an idea. Why not throw Cabrera into the negotiations for a new stadium? The government supplying the money should demand a long term contract for the third baseman as part of the deal. We'll build you a stadium, but you need to give us a star.

I was actually thinking of this over night in regards to the Twins and Johan Santana. The Twins are about to get a new ballpark thanks to the good taxpayers of the Twins Cities. In exchange, maybe Carl Pohlad should infuse some capital into the club so they can sign Santana, Mauer and Morneau long term, say the next five years. Give Santana a three-year extension at $25 million each. Offer Mauer and Morneau $12 million a year for five years. That way, the Twins get all of their best seasons, they still get to cash in on free agency, and the ballclub gets a chance to win a World Championship with this core. And the ownership can spin it as a thanks for the new stadium! Seems everyone wins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 13, 2007
Twins Payroll Going Up
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With both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau filing for arbitration, the Twins are going to see quite an increase in payroll this season. Even if the Twins feel they can't keep both long term, it would be wise to at least lock these two up through their arbitration years. Baseball appears to be in the sweet spot right now in terms of revenue growth, so it's likely that those two will get significant raises the next two years as well. While the best thing would be to lock in their stars for a long time, a three-year deal at least gives the front office some certainty as to payroll, and avoids these arbitration conflicts.

Also, just how old are the Giants?

The San Francisco Giants were the only team that did not have a player file for arbitration.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:39 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Nutting Changes in Pittsburgh
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Robert Nutting officially took over as owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday, although it doesn't appear that much changed. Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke responds to the letter:

Still, I'm a reasonable person and I think I'm a pretty fair guy. In fact, a lot of Pirate fans will read this letter I'm writing and tell me I'm too fair. I read the stuff you say to Dejan Kovacevic in the Post Gazette and I want to believe you. "It's my expectation to win." That's what you said. As a fan, I hope you'll forgive me if I say I have ample reason to think otherwise. Still, there's no way around the statement you've made. It's not open ended like "We Will." It says pretty clearly what you want to do with the team and it's hard for me to argue with that, because I want to see the Pirates win and I should hope that you do too. But you know what? Words don't mean anything anymore. I don't care if you say you want to win or expect to win every day. I want you to show me that you want to win. Fire Dave Littlefield. Talk to any reasonable baseball person and they'll tell you that Littlefield is an awful GM. Guess who's helped turn us into a punchline? Littlefield. If you want to win, I'd suggest you start by firing him. Next up, fire Ed Creech and Brian Graham. You profess to want a strong farm system to operate like Oakland and Minnesota. We don't have that and no one is more responsible for it than Creech and Graham.

As noted yesterday, the Pirates are doing a poor job of fixing the team this off-season, giving some justiication to the above desires.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 12, 2007
Pirates at First
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Dave Littlefield is still looking for a first baseman:

From accounts on both sides, the Pirates and Atlanta never have gotten as close to a deal as they did Dec. 6, when Braves general manager John Schuerholz backed away from a proposal to swap LaRoche for closer Mike Gonzalez.

Since then, the sides have exchanged other proposals, with Atlanta's wish being Gonzalez plus another player, possibly center fielder Chris Duffy. The Pirates' position on that, as one team official put it, was that "we'd be creating two holes to fill one." The Braves also might entertain taking a starter for LaRoche, but the Pirates are highly reluctant to part with any of their top four: Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny.

As someone inside the industry but outside either organization put it, "Doesn't look like there's a match."

And that seems to be the problem with all Pittsburgh's possible trading partners. There's not good match of talent. I'm sorry, this problem shouldn't be that difficult to solve. Littlefield is spending much too much time on an easy to fix position (first base) when the rest of his club isn't very good. It's like spending days trying to fix a leaky faucet when there's a hole in the roof. Why not give someone like Adam Boeve a shot? Or instead of going after a 27 year old major leaguer with an iffy career, scour the minors for someone stuck behind an established veteran (think Ryan Howard two years ago). Putting the organization on hold because you need to land a first basemen is a very poor strategy for running a team.

Update: Ross Hooten writes:

Indianapolis Indians fans would also remind Mr. Littlefield that one of our own is still available to play regularly in PNC Park: Brad Eldred Unfortunately for the Indians, Eldred was lost for the 2006 season in April with a wrist injury. The Pirates might recall that Eldred hit 12 homers in 55 major league games in 2005. http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=434660 I'm a Reds fan so I guess the Pirates are thinking with Eldred that they'd rather not have an Adam Dunn style player in the middle of their lineup.

Here's a link with Eldred's complete minor league stats. There's lots of things you can do to fill a first base hole. Sometimes even in your own system.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Giant Addiction
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Gary Peterson notes the Giants addiction:

Interestingly, this news occurs even as the Giants and Bonds' legal team are wrangling over the terms of the one-year, $16 million to $20 million contract that was announced last month. One of the hang-ups is said to be the size of, and privileges granted to, Bonds' posse. It doesn't take the dreamer long to connect those dots and come up with the delicious possibility of Bonds' return to the team being scuttled before it begins.

Don't hold your breath. Although Magowan may have talked bravely at the end of last season, the Giants never have demonstrated by their actions that they are interested in anything other than prostrating themselves before the great Bonds, accepting whatever public relations atrocities he commits off the field for whatever he can give them on the field.

In fact, they offered him far more money than was necessary to secure his return to the team, given his declining skills and the industrywide lack of interest in his services. Magowan explained he didn't want to "humiliate" Bonds. The feeling, clearly, is not mutual.

On top of that, one Bay Area talk show host notices a shift in attitude by the fans.

Gary Radnich, who hosts the station's 9 a.m.-noon slot, said the tone of callers and e-mails shows that Bonds may have few defenders left.

"In the past, the calls and e-mails would say we are all picking on Bonds, and everyone else does steroids, anyway," Radnich said. "Now you can just tell the way this stuff is going, Bonds' defenders are few and far between. They're not saying he's the worst guy in the world. They're just shrugging their shoulders and saying that they are tired of this."

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:55 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 06, 2007
Old All Over
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The Giants kick Felipe Alou upstairs, making him special assistant to the GM:

"There will come a day I put that suitcase on a shelf," the 71-year-old manager said in September.

That day hasn't come yet. The Giants replaced Alou with manager Bruce Bochy, but they officially welcomed back their former All-Star player and skipper as a special assistant to general manager Brian Sabean.

The title is not ceremonial. Sabean said Alou would assist with scouting and player development while traveling extensively. Alou will have a voice in trades and other player acquisitions. And he might even wear a uniform in spring training.

"He's going to spend a lot more time on the West Coast than the East Coast," Sabean said. "We're going to have a lot of fun with the working relationship. It's going to be very unique after working together in the other capacity."

Alou joins the front office when Sabean most needs his experienced eye. Club officials are still reeling from the sudden loss of special assistant Pat Dobson, who died Nov. 22.

If you're going to be old on the field, why not have a crotchety old man in the front office as well? Of course, relieved of the stress of managing, Alou might turn into a nice guy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 04, 2007
On the Beane
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Billy Beane's success as a GM earned him a place on a software company board:

NetSuite says it's changing traditions in the way software is being sold and likes the philosophical link.

"Billy's outrageously successful approach in changing the game of baseball by using facts to supplement instinct is very similar to the transformation our customers undergo when they move their business to NetSuite," said Evan Goldberg, chairman, co-founder and chief technology officer of NetSuite. "We are all excited about the insight Billy will bring to NetSuite and our customers."

But picking Beane isn't all about star power. The company already has some of that. It's majority-owned by software mogul Larry Ellison, the chief and co-founder of Redwood Shores-based Oracle Corp.

Beane said he was attracted to NetSuite because of Ellison, as well as the company's nonconforming approach of selling software as a service delivered via the Web instead of on software disks installed on company computers.

I understand Python is undervalued in the market place today, so expect NetSuite programmers to start writing in that language! :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 03, 2007
No Incentives
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One reasons the Yankees and Diamondbacks are a good fit for a trade is that neither team offers incentives in player contracts:

Because they are so concerned with "cost certainty" after the franchise rang up a tab of $270 million in deferred contracts under the direction of former managing partner Jerry Colangelo, the Diamondbacks, as an organizational philosophy, do not include contract incentive clauses for such things as winning a Cy Young or MVP award.

Most clubs -- but not all -- do.

"I know our awards bonus policy is modeled after the Yankees'," said Jeffrey Moorad, a managing partner in Arizona's ownership group. "Neither of us believes philosophically in awards bonuses.

"The no-incentive approach is a byproduct of a policy that stems from our desire to have certainty of payroll from the expense side. We've found that at times it has cost us a little more money because we're not in the incentive business."

The policy was "crafted" by Moorad and former general manager Joe Garagiola Jr. shortly after Moorad's arrival in 2004, according to Moorad, "and Josh Byrnes and his staff furthered it."

So because Johnson's contract does not contain incentives, the Diamondbacks are willing to assume it, if the Yankees help.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 02, 2007
Truth in the Red
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Red Reporter notes that Wayne Krivsky's words and actions don't match.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 20, 2006
Sinking Ship
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Lookout Landing changed its logo, and explains why they're down on Bill Bavasi:

A long time ago some guy once said we shouldn't judge GM's by their moves, but by their philosophies. I don't remember who said it, or where, or in what context, but it's absolutely true. How many transactions does one GM make before he gives way to another? 10? 20? 30? Willie Ballgame hit .455 over 33 at bats five years ago, and everybody knows that's a meaningless sample, so why should it be any different for executives? Sometimes good moves don't work out (Freddy Garcia trade) while bad moves do (dealing Jeremy Giambi for John Mabry). GM's just aren't around long enough for their level of success to be a direct measure of their ability.

And so it is with that in mind that I've come to be deathly afraid of Bill Bavasi's gameplan. So much so that I think it would be in the organization's best interests to send him packing now and start rebuilding the front office as soon as possible. Allow me to explain.

It's worth reading the whole article.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
December 16, 2006
Tons of Equity
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Ken Rosenthal discusses the possible long-term sale of the Orioles to Cal Ripken at FoxSports.com. What gets me is this:

Ripken, 46, would need significant financial backing; the combined price for the Orioles and their new regional television network could exceed $800 million, according to one industry analyst.

Angelos paid $173 million for the team in 1993. I don't know how much debt he's taken on over the years, but with the success of the team for most of that time, Angelos probably earned about $400 to $500 million in equity. In other words, the Orioles have more than enough money to easily compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Orioles, however, don't spend their money wisely. From what I've read, a lot has to do with Peter micromanaging the front office. No matter the excuse, there's no reason for the Orioles not to go after the best players in the game, just like New York and Boston do. They have the money to make it happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 13, 2006
Driving Away the Old Regime
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Johnny Almaraz seems to be the latest Reds official to leave as Wayne Krivsky passively pushes inherited personnel away:

When Barton's resignation came to light during baseball winter meetings in Orlando last week, Almaraz indicated to the Dayton Daily News that he, too, was not happy and that he might follow Barton's lead.

"I'm not included in any of the discussions and, in fact, when I walked into the suite during the winter meetings Wayne and his people would lower their voices to a whisper or take their discussions into the bedroom," Almaraz said.

I'm sorry, this just isn't right. It's perfectly fine for a GM to bring in his own people, but don't jerk people around. If you don't want their input, let them go. Krivsky may need to deal with these people in the future, and they're not going to be friendly toward him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 12, 2006
Fifteen Player Team
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The Giants are getting very close to their salary budget:

The Giants have budgeted a payroll of about $85 million, with some wiggle room. If Bonds were to maximize his incentives and defer nothing, the Giants would have $86 million already committed to just 15 players. The club's payroll has never eclipsed $90 million.

Looks like they'll pay a number of players close to the minimum this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 10, 2006
Expanding the Market
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It's not clear how well the Devil Rays are developing their on-field talent, but off field they appear to be making the right moves:

This week, the team is expected to announce plans to move a regular-season series from St. Petersburg to Orlando, part of a territorial expansion that has seen their Single A affiliate move from Southwest Michigan to Vero Beach, while the team completes plans to shift its spring-training home from St. Petersburg to Port Charlotte by 2009.

''We do have a strategy to become a team that can draw upon the strength of the region,'' team president Matt Silverman said. ``And we have targeted initiatives to reach . . . out of the Tampa Bay area. Orlando and Charlotte County are two pivotal positions in our regional strategy.

``But we have many other ideas that we're going to roll out in the coming months and years to create that sense of attachment to the region.''

They're outreach to Orlando last year helped them increase attendance by 25%. If they can do that again, they'll be over 20,000 per game, which isn't great but it's acceptable. The article shows this management team is taking a slow but steady approach. With luck, that will work better on the field than the earlier "sign vets to try to win now" gambit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
December 09, 2006
Pushing for a GM
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U.S.S. Mariner started a campaign to replace Bill Bavasi, the Seattle GM with Chris Antonetti of the Indians.

Antonetti is going to be labeled as a "Moneyball" executive by the media, as he did not play professional baseball and has advanced degrees from elite universities. He got a bachelors in business administration from Georgetown and a masters in sports management from Massachusets, learning the academic side of how to be a successful manager. From there, he took a low level job with the Montreal Expos in their minor league operations department before joining the Indians organization in 1999 as, essentially, an intern. From 1999 until now, he has worked his way from the title of Assistant, Baseball Operations to Assistant GM (a position he earned in 2002), and has held numerous roles during that time. The Indians have had him work in both administrative and player development positions, and he's spent numerous hours working with both scouts and statistical analysts.

No one understands how to use both subjective scouting information and quantifiable statistical data together as well as the Indians, and Antonetti has been successful in both sides of the baseball operations department. Under the leadership of John Hart and now Mark Shapiro, the Indians have become baseball's most well-oiled machine. Antonetti has been a vital cog in that machine for the past seven years.

6-4-2 Is worried about Antonetti's press skills:


Having watched while the lazy, prejudiced LA media filleted Paul DePodesta from without (starting on the very first day), and very likely, Tommy Lasorda busied himself undermining DePo from within, I note in passing the author presents no evidence to support this assertion. While I imagine the Seattle reporters are far tamer than the abject hacks and character assassins masquerading as newspaper writers down here, at some point, the wins have to flow or else blood will.

Some of that is always chance; if you get lucky, your opponents have their own afflictions, and worse than yours. But Seattle is uniquely unlucky now, in that Arte has a big bankroll and is plying his trade in ever-wider swaths of the largest media market in the division, the A's hope to harvest the fruits of their new park soon, and the Rangers have a sort of idiot Roman emperor as an owner, willing to spend with or without result. The hook, no matter who they haul in to replace Bavasi, perhaps as early as the middle of next year, will be shorter in coming than it was for the job's current occupant. Giving that to someone of unknown press relations skills is perhaps asking for even more trouble.

Press skills can be learned. The difference between ESPN and Fox on air personnel is that Fox tends to take people who know television and teaches them sports, while ESPN takes people who know sports and teaches them television. Whatever Chris' abilities are right now to handle the press, he can learn how to deal with them. The Mariners, if they are going to make a change, should concentrate on hiring someone who knows baseball inside and out. Then send them for a crash course on talking to the press. Antonetti's smart enough to learn that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Good Decision
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Lou Piniella appears to be the person who encouraged Jim Hendry to go to the hospital:

A friend of Hendry's told us that the GM hadn't been feeling very good for the past few days. Gary Hughes, Hendry's special assistant, said that Hendry thought he had indigestion Tuesday night at dinner and that Hughes and Piniella discussed taking the GM to the hospital then.

No, no, Hendry told them, and by later Tuesday night, he was feeling better. But the discomfort was back when he woke up Wednesday morning.

"We drove him over to the hospital," Piniella said. "We were concerned. It turned out to be the right decision."

Maybe it will be the most important decision Piniella makes as Cubs manager, and he nailed it. If even 75 percent of his decisions in the manager's chair are this on the mark, maybe this really can be the Cubs' year.

Scott Miller also notes that the Cubs have spent more money on players this off season than Tampa Bay spent in Piniella's entire tenure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
December 08, 2006
Red Sox Tampering?
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The Dodgers may file a grievence against the Red Sox over J.D. Drew:

The Boston Red Sox might still view the New York Yankees as the Evil Empire. But other Major League Baseball people apparently think of the Red Sox as a team that can operate outside of the rules, according to a report in The New York Times.

One unnamed general manager told the newspaper that several people at the recently completed winter meetings urged the Los Angeles Dodgers to file a tampering charge against the Red Sox after veteran J.D. Drew signed with them.

"We haven't reached a decision yet," Ned Colletti, the Dodgers' general manager, told The Times before leaving the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla.

Theo denies the charges. It seems to me Drew opting out of his contract made perfect sense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:07 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
He's Lucky to be Miserable
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The Winter Meetings left Bill Bavasi with a bad feelings:

"This was one of the more miserable winter meetings I've ever been to," Mariners GM Bill Bavasi said. "Between the lack of activity and the volcanic (free agent) market, it was tough."

Was there any upside at all?

"We're not done," said Bavasi, who hopes to land another starter, and who might go after a right-handed reliever now that Soriano is gone.

At least they weren't horrible:

I feel that life is divided into the horrible and the miserable. That's the two categories. The horrible be like, I don't know, terminal cases, you know, and blind people, crippled. I don't know how they get through life. It's amazing to me. And the miserable is everyone else. So you should be thankful that you're miserable, because that's very lucky, to be miserable.

Of course, it's possible that miserable meetings lead to horrible teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
He's Lucky to be Miserable
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The Winter Meetings left Bill Bavasi with a bad feelings:

"This was one of the more miserable winter meetings I've ever been to," Mariners GM Bill Bavasi said. "Between the lack of activity and the volcanic (free agent) market, it was tough."

Was there any upside at all?

"We're not done," said Bavasi, who hopes to land another starter, and who might go after a right-handed reliever now that Soriano is gone.

At least they weren't horrible:

I feel that life is divided into the horrible and the miserable. That's the two categories. The horrible be like, I don't know, terminal cases, you know, and blind people, crippled. I don't know how they get through life. It's amazing to me. And the miserable is everyone else. So you should be thankful that you're miserable, because that's very lucky, to be miserable.

Of course, it's possible that miserable meetings lead to horrible teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
December 06, 2006
Orioles Impediment
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Peter Schmuck rakes Peter Angelos over the coals for being too controlling. He nixed a good trade, and then did this:

The Orioles are back at odds with the Maryland Stadium Authority over the installation of a new video scoreboard at Oriole Park, and the team might go to arbitration to prevent the authority from purchasing the Mitsubishi DiamondVision screen without club approval.

That might seem reasonable enough, considering the Orioles' stadium lease calls for the team to be consulted on such matters, except that there were three Orioles officials on the committee that unanimously approved the selection.

Don't laugh, because this isn't funny anymore. This is the way Angelos has been doing business for most of the past decade, and he is probably the only person inside or outside his organization who doesn't realize how much his disjointed management style has hurt the team, the fans and every merchant who is trying to make a living in the area around the stadium.

Since he pays the bills, he has the right to make the decision. But why hire people to do a job if you're not going to listen to them?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
December 05, 2006
Restrained Yankees
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Brian Cashman is more interested in keeping his young talent than trading it:

Of course, Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins' owner, never will completely shut the door on potential Willis suitors. "Not if someone wants to really overwhelm us," is what he says, which, translated, means, "Who's to say if someone is willing to do something really stupid like trading three can't-miss prospects?" Not the Yankees or the Mets.

What's interesting from the Yankees' standpoint is that, for the first time in recent memory, they are actually in a position to put together that sort of package as a result of Brian Cashman's determined restocking of the once-barren farm system with blue-chip prospects such as pitchers Philip Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Karstens, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Dellin Betances and Kevin Whelan and outfielders Jose Tabata and Brett Gardner.

The George Steinbrenner of yesteryear would be telling Cashman to call Loria and make precisely that sort of overwhelming offer for Willis. But as Cashman reiterated yesterday, the Yankees are doing business in a different way now.

"We're trying to build from within to the point where we have a lot of choices so we're not forced to go into the free agent market which is typically unproductive," he said.

The scary thing for the rest of the AL is that both the Yankees and Red Sox are pursuing this tactic. The Twins and Athletics showed how you can stay in contention developing young talent. Add a ton of money to that, and you have a chance to build super teams.

Before Cashman made his deal to gain more control of the Yankees, his merits as a GM were hotly debated. I'd say so far he's used his power wisely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 29, 2006
Ricciardi's Out of the Club
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It's officially time to throw J.P. Ricciardi out of the Moneyball club.

Ricciardi also would like to sign a middle infielder this week. He planned on having Aaron Hill play shortstop but said he'll probably play second now.

"We like Royce Clayton. We like a lot of guys," Ricciardi said. "We're going to address that in the next few days."

We like Royce Clayton? Please excuse me while I go bang my head against the wall.

Update: The Jays actually signed Clayton:

Clayton's career on-base percentage is .313, and he has little power. However, the Jays should be formidable enough offensively after signing free-agent designated hitter Frank Thomas - presuming they keep center fielder Vernon Wells.

Clayton no longer is an elite defender, and his weaknesses could be highlighted playing on artificial turf at SkyDome. He still makes the routine plays, but had the third-lowest zone rating among the 15 qualifying National League shortstops last season.

So he's a lousy offensive player, and he's not a great defensive player, but at $1.5 million at least he's a cheap lousy player!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
No Love for Littlefield
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Larry Dobrow puts the problems of the Pirates squarely on Dave Littlefield's shoulders:

The Pittsburgh Pirates might be one of baseball's two or three franchises truly beyond resuscitation, and I can tell you why in three words: Dave Motherbleepin' Littlefield.

In his five tragic years as the team's executive zookeeper, Littlefield has committed the following offenses against common sense, among others: dealing away Aramis Ramirez for a bag of hair, dealing away Jason Schmidt for a bag of combs, prematurely giving up on Bronson "Brandon" Arroyo, and tying up the team's admittedly limited resources in negligible vets like Joe Randa, Jeromy Burnitz and Benito Santiago.

Amazingly, Dobrow notes the Pirates still have a chance to win the division, since the NL Central is so bad.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 22, 2006
Pujols and Cabrera
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Just how smart do the Cardinals look right now? In February 2004 they sign Albert Pujols to a seven-year, $100 million dollar contract. Otherwise, he'd be a free agent right now. Can you imagine what kind of money Albert would command in this class? Ten years, $300 million?

And just how foolish were the Fish not to try to sign Miguel Cabrera to a long term deal? When he's a free agent at the end of 2009, how much money will he command? If the Marlins offered him a 10-year, $80 million dollar contract last winter, do you think he would have taken it? Do you then think in this market, the Marlins could trade him at any time for loads of prospects? With this market Miguel would be silly to sign anything longer than three years. And he won't be a Marlins in 2010 at the peak age of 27. He'll eclipse A-Rod's contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2006
Movin' On Up
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It won't be official until Friday, but Bob Geren appears to be the new manager of the Oakland Athletics:

A's closer Huston Street said he heard Thursday from Geren, who told the pitcher he got the job.

"I'm really excited," said Street, the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year. "He's already called me and we've spoken a little bit. I spent my first full year in the big leagues with him in the bullpen. He was the first professional coach I got a feel for and got to understand. What he brings is someone dedicated to the team and dedicated to his players. He's got a good feel for the team and that's a real positive for all of us."

Beane promoted Macha from the bench as well. I hope someone asks how much Geren is on board with the front office approach to managing the game? Maybe someone will ask at the news conference. Since Beane and Geren are such great friends, I wonder what it's going to be like when Billy needs to fire Bob someday? That would be rough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 14, 2006
Manny's Team
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Manny Acta officially became the manager of the Washington Nationals today.

Acta has managed in the minors and in the Dominican Winter League, and he led the Dominican Republic to the semifinals at the World Baseball Classic this year.

During that tournament, Acta benched a struggling Alfonso Soriano -- the All-Star who hit 46 homers and stole 41 bases for the Nationals in 2006 and has filed for free agency.

Acta said Soriano was the first player who called to congratulate him on being hired by the Nationals -- although the new manager indicated he figures the size of a contract offer will have more to do with where Soriano winds up.

At 37, Acta becomes the youngest manager in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 13, 2006
Balsley Back
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The Padres reached an agreement with pitching coach Darren Balsley. Their was a report of trouble between San Diego and the Knoxville native recently.

The Padres and Balsley, whose staff led the league in ERA this year, have reached agreement on a two-year contract that will be announced today. Negotiations took a detour after Balsley retained an adviser/agent, but Towers and Balsley worked through it after new manager Bud Black endorsed Balsley.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Player Exchange
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The GM Meetings get underway today. With the free agent market thin, I expect there will be more trades than usual. Also, watch out for the Matsuzaka winner coming to light today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 12, 2006
Rocky (Top) Relationship
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Kevin Towers and San Diego pitching coach Darren Balsley are involved in a heated contract dispute. Towers is upset Balsley hired an agent, and Balsley is upset the Padres want him to live in San Diego full-time:

Towers insists Balsley live in the San Diego area year-round so he can work the pitchers during the offseason in exchange for a multi-year contract Balsley deserves.

That's a hang-up for Balsley, who was born in Newport Beach, Calif., about halfway between San Diego and Los Angeles, and grew up rooting for the Padres while attending Mt. Carmel High School in San Diego.

Balsley prefers Knoxville, where he has lived for the past 10 years.

"Working for the Padres and living out there would be ideal, but it's just not that easy," he said.

Balsley and wife Carrie are the parents of three children: Allison, 10; Sarah, 7; and Jacob, 5.

"At this point it would be difficult to move my family there," he said.

Balsley enjoys living in East Tennessee.

"My wife is from the South," he said. "I played here, I love Knoxville and it's a nice place to live."

There is another factor.

"The cost of living out there is outrageous," Balsley said.

I'm coming down on Balsley's side here. First of all, you hire an agent because they have expertise in contract negotiations. Sure, the GM doesn't want to deal with that, but too bad. And secondly, how many Padres pitchers live in San Diego full time? I would suspect many make their home somewhere else. I agree with the author of the piece that Towers wants to bring in new blood without looking like he just fired a successful coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 10, 2006
Acta Nata
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It looks like the Washington Nationals are set to hire Manny Acta as their new manager. He's pulled out of an interview with the Oakland Athletics:

A source with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed that Acta's deal with the Nationals is "almost done."

He would be the fourth hire this year getting his first chance at managing a major league team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Unfair Media
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Dodger Thoughts thinks about how the LA press would treat the JD drew story differently if DePodesta was still the GM:

I'm probably going to regret saying this, but if Paul DePodesta had been caught off guard by Drew's departure in the exact, exact same fashion as Ned Colletti was, however innocently, however insignificantly, with that month going by without a phone call, we would be hearing all about how rotten a communicator DePodesta was.

"I told [Colletti] there was a strong demand in the marketplace for guys with J.D.'s skills," said Scott Boras, Drew's agent. "They never made any proposals to us. I let them know we would be open to listening."

But I expect Colletti will be let off the hook - which is fine, just different.

Paul was a rotten communicator because he didn't talk to the press well. Therefore, he must be a rotten communicator overall. Ned is great at talking to the press, so this couldn't be a lack of communication.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 09, 2006
Showalter's Strengths
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It looks like the Cleveland Indians are thinking of hiring Buck Showalter for what he does best:

Former Rangers manager Buck Showalter is talking to the Indians about an advisory position, FOXSports.com has learned.

Showalter, fired last month by the Rangers with three years remaining on his contract, would assist both Indians general manager Mark Shapiro and manager Eric Wedge.

Buck's a great details guy. If he did nothing else but work on the best way to position fielder for each hitter, he'd help the Indians. With Texas paying his salary, it's a cheap way to bring a load of talent into both the front office and the dugout.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Budget Process
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An excellent post at U.S.S. Mariner on why teams should budget wins rather than money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 08, 2006
Does He Count as a Minority?
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The San Diego Padres hire Bud Black to manage the team:

Black will be introduced at the team's awards banquet Thursday night, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because an official announcement hadn't been made.

Black, who lives outside San Diego, has been the Angels' pitching coach for the last seven seasons. He played at San Diego State with Tony Gwynn and pitched in the big leagues for 15 seasons, helping the Kansas City Royals win the 1985 World Series.

Dusty Baker, considered the leading candidate, said he was told Wednesday morning that he didn't get the job.

"Life's full of disappointments sometime and you have to deal with them," Baker said.

During his tenure as pitching coach, the Angels compiled the second best ERA in the American League (behind the Oakland Athletics), and the seventh best in the majors. Black also took the job of the dugout interviewee during ESPN Sunday Night Baseball and Fox broadcasts. It looks like the Padres are trying to maximize their strength, which is pitching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Quirky Interview
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Jamie Quirk describes what it's like to be interviewed for the Oakland Athletics manager's opening:

Quirk, who interviewed for the Arizona job two years ago, described Tuesday's interview as unlike any that he's ever done. "It was just sitting around and shooting the breeze," Quirk said. "It was not a quiz of who knows more baseball. Just bouncing ideas off each other. I felt real comfortable with it. I thought it went well."

I find that fascinating. I'd expect the A's to test if the managerial candidate possessed sabermetric knowledge. Even challenge him to a game of Strat-o-Matic. It sounds like the type of interview you should conduct with a candidate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Nats Keep Shuffling
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The Nationals fired broadcaster Tom Paciorek:

Paciorek, a former outfielder for six major league teams, was hired by the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network as an analyst before this past season, joining longtime Cardinals broadcaster Bob Carpenter. By most fan accounts, the tandem worked well together, and both men said they became close friends while covering the Nationals for 162 games.

MASN executive producer Chris Glass notified Paciorek he would not be retained, although the decision was made by officials from the Nationals, not the network. Paciorek said he was originally told that the rationale for his dismissal was that the team simply "wanted to move in the right direction."

"I'm thinking, I've been in this business for 17 years, and I think I deserve better than that," he said.

When he pressed MASN officials further about the reasoning, Paciorek said he was told the team was interested in an analyst more knowledgeable about pitching and catching.

MLB Extra Innings carries most MASN broadcasts, and that duo was fine. It seems with the manager firing and the hiring of new scouts, the new ownership is putting its mark on the team. Some good news for Harold Reynolds fans:

A replacement for Paciorek has not been named, but there are several high-profile broadcasters who could be looking for work, including former ESPN baseball analyst Harold Reynolds and Hall of Fame pitcher Don Sutton, who was dismissed by TBS and the Atlanta Braves last month.

Given that they're looking for someone more knowledgeable about pitching, Sutton seems the logical choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
November 06, 2006
Washington to Texas
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Evan Grant reports Ron Washington will be hired as the manager of the Texas Rangers:

He is viewed as an excellent communicator full of positive energy. Daniels made it clear during the news conference announcing Showalter's dismissal that he was searching for better communication.

That's always been Showalter's downfall. He's a fine strategist, he just doesn't manage people well. The article notes that as a coach in Oakland, the Athletics posted very good fielding percentages. Their DER was very good in 2005, good in 2004 and middle of the road in 2006. The Rangers DER was no where near as good over the same period. If Washington can get the Rangers to turn a few more balls in play into outs, he'll improved the pitching staff without changing a thing.

For an example of how Washington motivates, check out the section in the book Moneyball on how he taught Scott Hatteberg to play first base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 02, 2006
Interviewing Baker
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The Padres invited Dusty Baker for an interview:

Such a man does not normally consent to courtesy interviews. Such a man would not allow himself to be used simply to illustrate the Padres' commitment to diversity. If Dusty Baker is going to be a party to this process - if he's going to go through with a Monday interview as the sixth candidate under consideration to succeed Bochy - he has to believe he's the front-runner.

That all of this flies in the face of everything the Padres have done so far only makes it that much more intriguing.

In failing to offer Bochy a contract extension, in allowing him to depart for a division rival, and in drawing up a list of possible replacements who have mostly induced shrugs and elicited yawns, the Padres had encouraged their fans to be cynical.

Their strategy appeared focused on finding a field manager who would both know his place and accept a salary substantially lower than Bochy's. They seemed to be screening candidates based on potential cost and prolonged obscurity: Bud Black, Trey Hillman, Jose Oquendo, Tim Wallach and Ron Wotus.

This was the business model Walter O'Malley used when he ran the Dodgers (at considerable profit), one in which he equated employees to a row of peas in a length of pipe. By squeezing a low-cost pea into the near end, O'Malley would cause a high-cost pea to tumble out the other end.

"That, gentlemen, is how you make money," O'Malley said.

I believe it's simply a diversity interview. Oquendo is the only minority among the five. By interviewing Dusty also, the Padres keep the commissioner off their back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Interview with the Rays
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Rays of Light posts a lengthy transcript of a radio interview with the Rays management team. Lots of interesting things, with highlights for those of you looking for a quick read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 31, 2006
Show Stopper
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George Steinbrenner's grand daughter gave a knock-out performance in Cabaret on Sunday.

Pauper Players' Sunday afternoon performance of "Cabaret" was cut short when Department of Public Safety officials responded to a call that a man was suffering from chest pains, DPS spokesman Randy Young said.

Sophomore Emily Riehl, who was in the audience, said the man was New York Yankees principal owner, George Steinbrenner.

Steinbrenner, 76, was in attendance to watch his granddaughter, junior Haley Swindal, perform the lead role of Sally Bowles.

Young said the man was "conscious, alert and breathing" when DPS officials arrived at Playmakers Theatre between 3:30 and 3:41 p.m.

The incident left some audience members shaken and forced the company to cancel the performance.

Steinbrenner is reported to be fine and at home. Hat tip, Deadspin, which is interested in your taste in Broadway show tunes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2006
Saving Outs
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It's nice to see Bruce Bochy has a little Earl Weaver in him:

While not considered a "Moneyball" manager -- he was accused of relying too heavily on veterans in San Diego -- Bochy subscribes to some of its stat-based tenets. Over the past five seasons, the Padres had the fewest sacrifice hits of any National League club.

"I don't like to give away outs," he said.

That's good news for the Giants. San Francisco was fourth in the NL in sacrifices last year, the Padres 14th. Of the four teams that made the playoffs in 2006 from the NL, the Mets with 77 sac bunts ranked sixth in the NL. Giving away outs in 2006 wasn't a great way to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 27, 2006
Dusty La Russa
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Tony La Russa sends Weaver out for the 8th inning, but the broadcast notes that no one was warming up in the St. Louis bullpen. That's how Dusty got in trouble in game 6 of the 2003 NLCS. After an out, Flores starts warming.

Update: Weaver still going strong, strikes out Monroe.

Update: Jeff strikes out Guillen for the third out in the 8th. That's nine strikeouts for Weaver through eight innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
You Might Think They Were Royalty
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There now appears to be a line of succession in the Yankees clubhouse:

Guessing Joe Torre's successor has long been a parlor game for Yankees fans. But never in Torre's 11 years as Yankees manager has a plan for succession seemed as clear as it does now.

Don Mattingly learned yesterday he will replace Lee Mazzilli as bench coach, several people familiar with the situation said, moving him one important step closer to the manager's seat.

So Don is now Prince of Wales?

PENELOPE: (Flirting vigorously) Do you know you look like the Prince of Wales.

CHICO: Better.

PENELOPE: In fact you have a very distinguishé appearance.

CHICO: Him I no got.

PENELOPE: Tell me. What are you doing tonight?

CHICO: You got idea?

PENELOPE: Don't you dare come to room three hundred and twenty at eleven o'clock.

CHICO: All right. I'll be there at ten-thirty.

(Both exit. PENELOPE and HARPO enter)

PENELOPE: Did anyone ever tell you that you look like the Prince of Wales? (Business) Tell me, do you know who I am? (Business) Do you know where my room is? (Business) Well, I'll be there about eleven o'clock, but of course that would not interest you.

(Business. They exit. GROUCHO and MRS. POTTER enter)

GROUCHO: Did anyone ever tell you that you look like the Prince of Wales? Of course, I don't mean this Prince of Wales. One of the old Wales. And believe me when I say Wales, I mean Wales. I know a whale when I see one.

I don't know how good a manager Don Mattingly might or might not be. But it's not like other clubs in need of a skipper are going out of their way to interview him. My guess is that when Torre leaves, the Yankees will interview four or five candidates like everyone else. Mattingly might have a leg up, but that doesn't mean he'll get the job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bochy Moves North
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Bruce Bochy agreed last night to become the new manager of the San Francisco Giants.

Sources said late Thursday night that San Diego Padres manager Bruce Bochy has agreed to a three-year contract to replace Felipe Alou and will be introduced as Giants manager at a press conference today. The deal is believed to be worth between $6 million and $7 million.

Bochy, 51, met with general manager Brian Sabean and others in the front office in San Francisco on Thursday and accepted an offer to manage the Giants and move north after 24 years with the Padres as a catcher, minor-league manager, major-league coach and, since 1995, major-league manager.

He was the second longest tenured manager behind Bobby Cox. Mark Sweeney, who played for both, describes the differences between Alou and Bochy:

Asked to compare Bochy to Alou, Sweeney said, "Felipe was a players' manager. He just wasn't a communicator like most players' managers are. There are just two different styles in communication. I think Bochy just has an understanding of how hard it was as a player just playing the game.

"With Bochy, everybody pretty much knows where he stands and he lets his coaches coach."

I wonder when Brian and Bruce will be heading for Sonoma?

During his twelve years at the helm, the Padres were about as middle of the road as you can imagine. Bochy's record with the team is 951-975. They made a trip to the World Series in 1998, and won division titles the last two seasons. His lineup selection is fine. He uses the stolen base well, and he doesn't bunt too much. In other words, you give Bochy talent and he's going to maximize that talent. It's just that the Padres haven't had that much during his tenure.

But they do have more talent than the Giants right now. A couple of more good acquisitions might put the Padres over the top, while the Giants are in a rebuilding mode. It makes you wonder if Bruce was really welcome in San Diego any more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 24, 2006
No Joe in D.C.
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Joe Girardi withdrew his name from the Washington Nationals' manager pool:

Former Florida Marlins manager Joe Girardi, considered for weeks the favorite to become the next manager of the Washington Nationals, took his name out of consideration for the job yesterday, saying it was a decision based on keeping his young family together but simultaneously saying he could still end up on a baseball field next season.

Girardi had two meetings over the last three weeks, one with General Manager Jim Bowden and the other with Bowden and team president Stan Kasten. Girardi said the talks went well and that the decision to pull out was "very, very difficult."

I hoped Girardi took this job so he could manage against the Marlins next year. My guess is that Joe's been away from his family for a long time, between playing, coaching, broadcasting and managing. If someone is going to pull him away from that, it's going to need to be the perfect job or a whole lot of money. After all, he's getting paid to sit on his behind for the next two years, why not enjoy the new baby and the best Miami has to offer?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 23, 2006
Back in the Game
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Lou Piniella hired Alan Trammell to coach the Cubs.

In a related note, Trammell autographed a ball for Jim Storer before game 2 of the World Series. Jim's impression of Trammell was that he's a very quiet and shy man but very nice. Good luck to Alan in his new job!

trammellautograph.jpg

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:33 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Billy Beane, Insensitive Boss
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Via Red Reporter, a Mercury News reporter remembers just how badly Billy Beane treated Ken Macha. Beane took over Macha's office for an interview, and a few minutes later Macha came in:

I started asking, but a few minutes later Macha and Curt Young came back, with plates of food and just in their underwear, obviously looking to eat, change clothes and relax.

They stared at us, I stared at them, Billy just kept eating and talking.

Macha tenatively sat down behind his desk for a few seconds. Very uncomfortable. Shot another glance at Beane. Glared at me. I shrugged, said to Beane, "Umm, maybe we should do this somewhere else."

Beane looked up like this was the first he'd noticed Macha was there-or cared that he was there-dropped his plate, then just waved at Macha, pointing him out the door. Remember, this was Macha's own office. After winning for something like the 33rd time in 40 games.

"Ken, you can let us do this, right?" Beane said as he waved.

Beane turned back to me and never looked at Macha again as Macha and Young sighed, got up, and moved out.

That was the relationship. Right there. Beane is the man. Macha always knew it, even when he was in his own office.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2006
Macha Speaks
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Ken Macha tells Carl Steward that the problem leading to the manager's dismissal was with the front office, not with the players:

What Macha did do was grant an interview to MediaNews to clarify a few things.

First was the notion that his firing was a direct result of published statements from his former players.

"What I want to do is take the high road," he said. "Let's focus on the eight years that I was there, the four years I was the manager, and what we did, all the success and the rookies of the year and the players we developed and all the other stuff. Let's not just look at the last day. Don't judge me by that. Don't do that. I know why I was fired and Billy knows why I was fired.

"I wasn't fired because these players were upset. I know that. Billy Beane knows that. And I'm OK with that decision."

So why was he really fired?

"I can't come out and say that, because Billy didn't come out and say it," he said. "I think you can figure it out, though."

What's clear is that Macha's relationship with the front office, and not so much with the players, had become untenable.

Macha makes the case that he communicated just fine:

In September, following an incident at home plate when Macha had to restrain outfielder Milton Bradley from going after an umpire, Bradley made a voluntary trip into the manager's office.

"He came in and sat down, and while he had a hard time saying it, he told me, 'Thanks for stopping me from hitting the umpire or running into him," Macha recalled. "I said, 'Milton, that's no problem. I did what I thought was best for the team, and as I've told you all along, 'I've got your back.'"

Macha said the manner in which he managed Payton, Bradley and Frank Thomas, who had myriad issues as a member of the Chicago White Sox, speaks closer to his true abilities as a communicator.

"Lost in this whole cloud is that I had these three supposedly problem players this year," he said. "I had those three guys, they were probably my three most productive guys. And I handled 'em. That gets lost in the fog here."

As I've noted before, the Athletics exceeded their win prediction, run prediction, and allowed fewer runs than expected under Macha. He must have done something right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 20, 2006
Giant Candidates
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Andrew Baggarly looks at the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates for Giants manager. He also mentions this:

But general manager Brian Sabean is looking beyond the resumes. He wants a manager who has strong opinions and knows how to run a game. He also wants a baseball mind with whom he can collaborate over a glass of wine.

I wonder if this was something he did with Baker and Alou? Take a drive up to the Russian River valley, taste the newest offerings and talk some baseball. Sounds like a perfect weekend to me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 19, 2006
Lou Already Brilliant
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Hendry on Piniella, sort of. :-)

After the announcement, Cubs GM Jim Hendry praised Piniella's sound judgment and pure baseball instinct, saying that "his ability to make quick, smart decisions like this one is exactly why we hired him."
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Relaxing Winter
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Apart from the manager search, the Oakland Athletics are pretty much set for next season:

The A's have three free agents. Barry Zito is gone, Frank Thomas is probably coming back, and Jay Payton's status will depend on his asking price and what else is available.

"We've only talked briefly about some of our personnel issues," general manager Billy Beane said. "We haven't got really in depth at addressing some our key needs yet."

The key decisions: a starter to replace Zito, an outfielder if Payton isn't brought back, and which players already under the team's control to offer a multiyear contract.

Approximately $44.5 million is committed to nine players: catcher Jason Kendall; outfielder Mark Kotsay; infielders Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis, and Bobby Crosby; and pitchers Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Jay Witasick and Esteban Loaiza.

Last year's payroll was in the mid-$60 million range, but many young players are due significant raises.

Nine are eligible for salary arbitration: outfielders Milton Bradley and Bobby Kielty; infielders Antonio Perez and Marco Scutaro; backup catcher Adam Melhuse; and pitchers Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos and Joe Kennedy.

Of course, if market inefficiencies appear, expect the front office to try to exploit those.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 18, 2006
Budding Manager?
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The Giants received permission to speak with Bud Black, the pitching coach of the LAnaheim Angels. I'm wondering how Jeff Weaver's turnaround should reflect on Bud. Jeff was so bad with the Angels he was released. He didn't pitch great for the Cardinals, but he was much better and in the post season he's been excellent. If San Francisco interview Black, should the first question be, "Why didn't Jeff Weaver respond to your coaching?"

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Nothing New Conference
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The Red Sox held a news conference yesterday but refused to talk about specific issues.

The Red Sox front office declined to answer questions yesterday concerning a number of topics, including payroll, their interest in Japanese righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka, whether they were going to deal Manny Ramírez, their free agents, and pitcher Jon Lester, who was stricken with cancer during the season.

Lucchino and Henry both declined to speak about threshold tax and the team's payroll because both of them indicated there are currently ``sensitive" basic agreement issues being discussed in New York. The basic labor agreement expires at the end of this year.

What is clear is that Theo's philosophy, the thing that caused the rift last October, took hold:

Watching the success of the World Series-bound Tigers struck a chord with Epstein. ``The primary goal of ours is to be able to develop home-grown talent and integrate it on the major league roster," said Epstein, who will turn 33 Dec. 29. ``There's an additional challenge in certain markets, including here, where there's a strong desire to have a competitive team every single year. It's a little more difficult to be patient. It doesn't make it any less important. For us to be the organization we want to be, we have to be good at being patient.

``It doesn't mean ever giving up on any one season. It doesn't mean lowering your goals because we're trying to get to the playoffs every single year. It means being good at being patient. We've had a good track record at being patient in some respects, but we've also had some missteps. It's clear going forward what we need to do to being better at it and we're all committed to it."

Lucchino, on the other hand, is just too clever:

Lucchino, asked whether the team would consider lowering prices if they knew they were in a rebuilding mode, said, ``We're pretty mindful of the escalation of ticket prices. If you've seen what happened since we've been here, you see a declining trend in levels of increases.

Why not just tell the truth. As long as every game sells out, the Red Sox will keep raising prices. Because if every game sells out, the tickets are probably priced too low.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 17, 2006
So Urgent
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Lou Piniella officially took over the Cubs today:

"Urgency is important," said Piniella, who was introduced today as the team's latest manager. "We're going to win here, and that's the end of the story."

Piniella agreed Monday to a three-year contract worth nearly $10 million, with an option for a fourth year.

"I'm just a little piece of the puzzle. My job is to come in here and unite this team," he said at a news conference.

Piniella said he was assured by general manager Jim Hendry that the Cubs would make moves necessary to improve the team. He brushed off a report that he wanted the Cubs to acquire embattled Yankees star Alex Rodriguez, saying there hadn't been "any discussions about A-Rod." Piniella was Rodriguez's first manager, with the Seattle Mariners in the mid-1990s.

I assume, however, Piniella and Hendry discussed the kinds of players they'd like to acquire. It will be interesting to watch as the two make moves this off season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Pena for Girardi
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Ben Kabak looks at the possibility that Tony Pena moves to Washington to take over the Nationals while Joe Girardi becomes bench coach and heir apparent to Joe Torre in New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
New Coach
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The Red Sox hired John Farrell as their new pitching coach yesterday. Farrell leaves the front office of Cleveland to become a professional pitching coach for the first time:

Farrell has never been a pitching coach in the minors or majors, but he was at Oklahoma State from 1997-2001. His organization and pitching knowledge were seen as keys in helping Boston's younger pitchers.

``We wanted someone who could take a very broad view of the job and be able to make a real impact on our pitching staff in terms of wins and losses," Epstein said. ``John has a really good feel for what makes pitchers succeed from a mental standpoint as well as a physical standpoint.

``He's faced a lot of those challenges himself both as a player and as a collegiate coach and as a farm director. He's well-qualified to work with our pitchers on making the adjustments necessary to succeed."

Farrell was never a strikeout pitcher, but in his four good seasons he kept his walks low and the ball in the park. If he can help Beckett with the long ball, he'll be worth it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Four Managers
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The Phillies hired three ex-managers as coaches yesterday, and Jim Salisbury sees this as putting Manuel on the hot seat:

If Pat Gillick's lukewarm endorsement on the final day of the regular season wasn't enough to make you believe that Charlie Manuel's seat will he hotter than a waffle iron come April, then this little bit of mathematics should be.

The new members of the Phillies' coaching staff have a combined 4,305 games of big-league managerial experience.

Gillick says that Jimy Williams, Art Howe and Davey Lopes are here to help Manuel and the 25 players who will try to break an embarrassing 13-year playoff drought next season. We believe Gillick. We really do. He is personally fond of Manuel - it's difficult not to be - and would like nothing more than to see his good-guy skipper ride down Broad Street with confetti on his shoulders and a contract extension in his hand.

But if the 2007 Phillies get off to another slow start... Watch out, Charlie. You may be flying in first class with your replacement.

Let me suggest something else. Maybe these three are better coaches than managers. The Yankees did the same thing when the hired Pena, Bowa and Mazzilli, three failed managers, but pretty good coaches. Just because you're a good coach doesn't mean you can be a good manager:

The employee's incompetence is not necessarily exposed as a result of the higher-ranking position being "more difficult" -- it may be simply that the position is different from the position in which the employee previously excelled, and thus requires different skills, which the employee may not possess. An example used by Peter involves a factory worker whose excellence at his work results in him being promoted into a management position, in which the skills that got him promoted in the first place are no longer of any use and even prevent the employee from successfully performing his duties as a manager.

I think of Ray Knight and Don Zimmer here. Each had qualities that made them great coaches, but when given full control of the team they faltered. Maybe Gillick is hiring them for their ability to coach, rather than as possible replacements for the manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Baker Interested
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Dusty Baker would like to manage the Athletics:

The A's need a new manager, and former Giants skipper Dusty Baker says he'd "be interested."

"In the Bay Area, oh, yeah. It would be nice for me and my family." Baker said by telephone Monday.

Ken Macha apparently didn't communicate enough in the A's clubhouse. Communication is Baker's strong suit. He is the consummate player's manager, a natural leader.

"My best is yet to come," Baker said. "Whoever gets me is gonna get a manager who's on a mission to win. I'm a better manager because of what happened the last couple of years."

Cubs fans will warn you, however, beware mixing Baker with young pitching arms.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Failure to Communicate
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The players who got along with Macha talk about the problems with the manager:

Third baseman Eric Chavez, the longest-tenured member of the team, said several times in a phone interview on Monday evening that he likes Macha and got along with him well personally, but he had seen enough going on around him to realize there were problems.

"The whole thing was a weird situation for me because ever since he came here we had a pretty good relationship, but over the last couple years, I could see things unfold, and I kept hearing things,'' Chavez said. "He's always been very open and communicative with me, and with some other players that wasn't true. I heard some things that were kind of disturbing. I think there are going to be a lot of guys who are happy about this.''

Many of the players felt that the tone set by Macha was gloomy, even when the club was playing well.

"The atmosphere wasn't positive, for some reason,'' Chavez said. "That was hard for us to deal with -- here we are, winning the division, we're banged up but we're still doing what we should be doing, and every time he spoke to us, he'd say how much appreciated the effort, but then you'd read things where he was always smashing people. ... This negative cloud was just eating at everybody.''

Barry Zito concurs:

Some of the players had the impression that Macha was miserable in his job. Starter Barry Zito, who is a big believer in the power of positive thinking, said that Macha dwelled too much on what might go wrong and that that was detrimental.

"The fact is, when you have someone leading people, you want them to be a visionary, to forge ahead and be on the front lines,'' Zito said. "We felt like we were on the front lines, and he might have been with us but he didn't have the same conviction or faith. I think it was a fear of failure. He was a little more focused on the pessimistic stuff than on success.''

It's tough being around a negative person all the time. Still, it really didn't show up in the statistics of the A's. Think what they might do if they have a manager who actually motivates them! They had Jimmy Carter and they want Ronald Reagan.

Thanks to Philip Michaels for the link to the article.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 16, 2006
More on Macha
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With Ken Machia fired, I'm trying to figure out his faults as a manager. It's proving difficult to find in the statistical record. The Athletics under Ken posted the 3rd best record in the American league from 2003-2006 (.568), trailing the Yankees and Red Sox. Not only that, but the Athletics exceeded their Pythagorean projection, which would put them at .557, a difference of seven wins. They exceeded their runs created estimate by 19 runs. That's not much over four seasons, but it is a positive. Quick and dirty DIPS puts their ERA at 4.22. The team actually posted a 4.00 ERA. The A's outperformed expectations at every turn. Maybe the front office takes credit for that, putting together a group of players that were greater than the sum of their parts. But Macha certainly didn't hurt anything. If he handled the pitching staff poorly, or handled players injuries poorly, why doesn't it show up in performance that's below expectations?

Billy Beane's competitive nature pushes him to want to win, but sometimes it manifests itself in blaming someone else. He did this after Howe lost the playoffs in 2002, and he's doing the same thing to Macha now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Macha Man No More
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Another managerial job opened up as the Atheltics fired Ken Macha.

FOXSports.com has learned that the A's have fired Macha.

The A's averaged 92 wins and captured two AL West titles in Macha's four years as manager. Macha, however, had an uneasy relationship with general manager Billy Beane and, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, also had problems communicating with players.

Well, he communicated well enough to get them to put on a great season-ending push to the division title. I saw a rumor about this earlier, but I expected it to be like last year, when the A's and Macha broke up and then got back together. Funny that Joe Torre survived a drubbing by the Tigers and Macha didn't.

Please, please, please, hire a manager that understands the Moneyball approach to the game. Davey Johnson is available!

Update: A search for Ken Macha on Baseball Musings brings up mostly negative comments.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Piniella Gets Three Year Deal
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FoxSports.com is reporting that the Cubs reached a deal with Lou Piniella and he'll be introduced tomorrow as the new manager. The deal is for three seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Interview Schedule
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The Texas Rangers are set to interview five candidates for their managerial opening.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Cost of a Manager
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Jeff at Brew Crew Ball is happy the Cubs are spending a lot of money on Lou Piniella.

I'm getting off-topic here, but I wonder if this shouldn't be the next way in which "smart" teams keep payroll down. True, the difference between a nobody and Piniella/Baker is only $2-$2.5 million, but if there's no real performance difference between a decent manager and a famous one (note I don't say "good") that's money down the drain. After all, the Devil Rays spent a lot of money paying Piniella to lead them to the cellar.

I'm not sure about this. You can do this with players because skills decline over time, and you also have three to six years in which you control a players' salary. But if something works for a manager at age 40, it's probably going to work just as well at age 60. So, if you actually find someone who is good, you're not going to jettison him just to save money. Whereas you can let a 30-year-old all-star go and spend a lot less money to make up most of the lost production.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Opinions Change
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I remember when these signings weren't thought of so warmly:

The Tigers' pitching is excellent, but the position players have distinguished themselves with clutch hitting and resilience. One of Dombrowski's investments was Magglio Ordonez, who left the Chicago White Sox for a five-year, $75 million contract in Detroit. Ordonez had two home runs in the decisive Game 4 of the Tigers' sweep of Oakland on Saturday night, including a game-ending three-run homer.

He was worth every cent.

Catcher Ivan Rodriguez was overpaid with $40 million over four years, but his handling of the pitching staff, especially the younger pitchers, has been flawless.

No one has complained about the money.

When Ordonez played just 82 games in 2005, fans complained about the money. Why would Dombrowski spend so much on an oft-injured player? When Ivan's weight and offensive production dropped in 2005, people complained about the money. Both those deals took a while to pay dividends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
The Song Stays the Same
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Gary Peterson explains why the Athletics are not likely to change course and sign Zito.

Look, you don't fix what isn't broken. As we speak, the A's are less broken than they've been since the first George Bush was president. Beane's methodology works better than it ever has.

Likewise, there was a reason the A's were so attractive to Wolff and Fisher in the first place. It was that reason that led them to hand Beane a sliver of sweat equity in the franchise, asking for nothing in return aside from more of the same.

If you understand this, you understand that nothing the team did this season is likely to change the way the franchise does business. In fact, it's likely to have just the opposite effect, since successful ends tend to justify the means.

Zito, then, is a goner, given that the money it would take to keep him would account for a disproportionate amount of the payroll ownership will choose to commit to next season's product. And also because Beane, as always, has a fall-back plan -- in this case a post-Zito rotation of Rich Harden, Esteban Loaiza, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Kirk Saarloos (as this is written).

It's not a sure thing, given Harden's iffy medical history. But it's a rotation most other teams would prefer to have with them than against them. And it is supported by setup man Justin Duchscherer and closer Huston Street.

Beane is good at letting players become other people's problems. The Yankees dealt with Giambi's drug problem. The Orioles deal with Tejada's personality. The Cardinals deal with Mulder's injuries, and the Braves deal with Hudson's decline. Sure, some good ones like Dye and Damon got away. But for the most part, Beane's let other people spend the money (or players) on headaches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 15, 2006
Teamwork
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I like this quote by Jim Leyland:

"Early on in spring training, we had a lot of good players, we didn't have a good team," an emotional manager Jim Leyland said. "Today I can make the statement that we've got a good team and that's the thing that I'm proudest of."

That's certainly one job of a manager, to get a number of individual talents to play as a team. Leyland certainly did a fine job of that this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 14, 2006
Managerial Musical Chairs
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Scott Miller at CBSSportsline rounds up the latest news on the search for four new managers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Advance
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The Yankees fired their advance scouts. What's interesting is that they're in no hurry to replace them:

The Yankees have fired their advance scouts, Chuck Cottier and Wade Taylor. This did not result solely from Cottier's and Taylor's work in preparation for the Yankees' American League Division Series against the Tigers, which Detroit won in four games. The move had been in the works for some time.

'I have no animosity toward the organization,' Taylor told Newsday. 'That's baseball.'

Taylor said Yankees general manager Brian Cashman informed him Wednesday that he and Cottier won't be retained and that the Yankees will enter 2007 without advance scouts. Cashman confirmed the decision on the two scouts but said the Yankees will use advance scouts next season.

There are statistical services that now provide pitch charting synced with video. This makes me wonder if the advance scouting the Yankees say they'll do next year is going to me more high tech.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 13, 2006
Piniella on the League Differences
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Without doing so directly, Lou Piniella just made a very good argument against the designated hitter. He noted that it's easier to keep utility players ready, since double switches bring them into the game more often. Not that it's more strategy, it just keeps everyone in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bochy Looking for Work?
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6-4-2 Links to a post at Gaslamp Ball about San Deigo encouraging other clubs to talk to Bochy about managing. Bruce is one of the longest tenured managers in the game, second to Bobby Cox in years with one team. He's finished first four times, and two years in a row. I wonder who Alderson would want to bring in?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 12, 2006
More on Chambliss
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Red Reporter doesn't like the way the Reds are turning Chris Chambliss into a scapegoat. Redleg Nation agrees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Code
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The Marlins are once again allowed to grow facial hair. FishStripes wonders if they're old enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 11, 2006
Chambliss Gone
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Redleg Nation notes that the Reds fired hitting coach Chris Chambliss:

Do you suppose that having 1/4 of his starting offense traded away for middle relief had anything to do with the offensive decline?

Indeed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
I'll have a Slurpee with the First Pitch
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Chicago White Sox games will start at 7:11 for the next three years. Guess why.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 10, 2006
Torre Stays On
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The Big Lead has the story. Here's more at FoxSports.com:

Torre spoke with Steinbrenner on the telephone Tuesday, shortly before he walked into the interview room at Yankee Stadium and made the announcement. "He gave me his support," Torre said. "I'm just pleased I'm able to stay on and do this."

The two also spoke on Monday.

"I talked to George yesterday for probably 15, 20 minutes, and we discussed a lot of things: the team, what we do from here and things like that," Torre said.

During the season I thought this was one of Torre's better jobs. He kept an injured team together until Cashman could find the replacement parts. He didn't deserve to be fired for bad luck in the ALDS. Maybe there are other reasons he should go, but I'm glad that others in the Yankees organization were able to cool off Steinbrenner's emotional reaction.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Torre to Stay
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Ben Kabak links to a New York Post story that Torre will stay. From the article:

By the time Torre meets with the press at 1 p.m. today at Yankee Stadium he will have been assured he will be coming back for his 12th season as Yankees manager.

While Steinbrenner left Manhattan for Tampa yesterday afternoon, general partner Steve Swindal, Steinbrenner's son-in-law, is in New York today. It's believed Swindal and Torre, who have a solid relationship after negotiating Torre's latest contract, will meet in the morning.

"It looks good for Joe,'' a source said.

It must be tough to own a story and get it wrong.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
October 09, 2006
Interest in Girardi
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The Cubs appear to be the first to enter the Joe Girardi sweepstakes.

Known for his gritty play and catching skills, Girardi began his career with the Cubs in 1989 and spent his first four seasons with the team. He returned for three more years in 2000 and made the All-Star team that season. His teammates in that second stretch included current Cubs pitchers Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano.

General manager Jim Hendry, who was not available for comment, plans to interview two internal candidates this week: Triple-A manager Mike Quade and Double-A manager Pat Listach.

Listach is best know for beating out Kenny Lofton for Rookie of the Year, then having his career fizzle.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 08, 2006
Torre Moves
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I was just on Yankees Fan Club Radio, and my suggestion for the Yankees is to hire Buck Showalter as bench coach. Allow Torre to continue managing the club house as well as he does, but hire the best Xs and Os manager out there to take the place of Zimmer. Let Buck be his workaholic self without needing to deal with the personality of the players. Joe and Buck each have strengths that complement the other's weakness and should make a great team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
George's Statement
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Was Watching provides a link to George Steinbrenner's statement on the LDS loss.

Rest assured, we will go back to work immediately and try to right this sad failure and provide a championship for the Yankees, as is our goal every year."

It's good and it's bad. No mention of the great season the team put together. No accolades for overcoming so many big injuries to get to the playoffs. But that pure commitment to winning every year is right out in front. That's why they're always in the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Giant Task
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Andrew Baggarly details the work Brian Sabean faces this off-season:

Sizing up the monumental task he faces this winter, Giants general manager Brian Sabean said he must make the club younger and healthier while acquiring players who can make long-term contributions.

He was describing all the tenets of a rebuilding process, though that term is verboten at 24 Willie Mays Plaza.

To dismantle an old roster, infuse young talent -- and simultaneously field a winning team? It's a non sequitur, even when you remove the leaden weight of Barry Bonds' $90 million contract. Yet that's the task Sabean faces.

The Marlins accomplished that in the winter of 2005/2006. But the Marlins had a much younger veteran base to trade; they owned talent that could help other teams now. How many players do the Giants control that anyone else really wants?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Back to the Future?
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The Daily News picks up on Ken Rosenthal's speculation that Torre would be fired. They at least use anonymous sources:

After winning four World Series titles in his first five seasons but failing to win the Fall Classic over the past six, Torre is expected to be fired, sources said, and his replacement is expected to be former Yankee Lou Piniella.

Unless other team officials can talk The Boss out of it, or unless Torre, 66, agrees to resign in order to save face, sources said principal owner George Steinbrenner will replace the manager who was credited with returning the team to its fabled glory. Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman is expected to keep his job, as are most members of the front office. Torre may be offered another position within the organization.

Bill Madden spells out the reasons:

In deference to Torre's four World Series trophies, Steinbrenner obliged Torre when the manager told him in their Tampa summit last November that he had to butt out and stop the jibes. In a series of meetings with the fractured Yankee front office last fall, Steinbrenner extended unprecedented power to both Torre and GM Brian Cashman. Ordinarily when things go badly in Yankeeland, no one escapes Steinbrenner's blame. But other than the $17 million spent on Kyle Farnsworth, Cashman's acquisitions - Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle from the high-end shelf and Brian Bruney and Aaron Guiel from the bargain-basement counter - were important contributors toward winning the AL East.

Even though Steinbrenner lived up to his pledge of silence and support, it was "on Torre" this year.

Torre wanted no interference, no second-guessing or behind-the-scenes sniping from Steinbrenner or any of his minions, and that's what he got. Total support, but it came with a price - winning it all.

If this is going to remain a veteran team, Piniella could be the right man. If they decide to tear down the team and start again, Lou showed in Tampa that doesn't fit his style. The age and contract status of the team makes the latter difficult, however.

I have mixed feeling about Torre. I've never thought he was a good strategic manager. But he managed that clubhouse perfectly. If (and I still think it's a big if) Torre is fired and Piniella takes the helm, they'll be back to the Bronx Zoo. This will be very good for the press, as George, Lou and the players all snipe at each other, but I remember the Yankees in the 1980s. They were a good team that never won a World Series and only made the playoffs once. They had Mattingly, Henderson and Winfield and couldn't win a division with those three. Torre's Yankees are many times more successful.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 07, 2006
Manager Search
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There's some surprise that the Nationals are looking at two older managers to replace Frank Robinson:

Since the Washington Nationals formally parted ways with Manager Frank Robinson earlier this week, most familiar with the search for Robinson's replacement figured the club wanted a young manager to take over what will, in all likelihood, be a team that struggles through the 2007 season.

But yesterday, a source familiar with the search said the Nationals have interest in at least speaking with veteran managers Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella about the opening. Baker and Piniella join former Florida manager Joe Girardi and Atlanta hitting coach Terry Pendleton -- and, no doubt, others who have not been publicly identified -- as potential candidates.

The Nationals are holding the search process quiet, but I rather see Frank stay than either Dusty or Piniella come in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
On the Beane
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Winning doesn't seem to have changed Billy Beane:

As the wild celebration continued in the A's clubhouse late Friday afternoon, the A's general manager and part owner stood at the entrance of the clubhouse -- very dry -- with the same tone and reflection he felt before the series began.

"It wasn't going to be part of my self-esteem, whether we got through the first round or not," Beane said. "I'm glad we're not in the division with the Minnesota Twins. I wouldn't want to play them in a seven- or nine-game series.

"They have a very good team. They won more games than we did. The short series helped us out. That's why when you get a chance, you have to close it out. We've proved that winning two games gets you nowhere."

Maybe he likes experience a little bit more, however:

"I do think experience helped us a little bit," Beane said. "There's been times where I've discounted that. I'll always take talent over experience. But I do think it had an impact on how we prepared for the games and how we flew back from Minnesota.

"It was a very quiet plane. Everybody was disappointed because of Mark (Ellis')broken finger. But they were very business-like. Of course, that's why we brought in (Esteban) Loaiza: to keep everybody in check."

Of course, the experience players Beane brough in had talent as well, as Loaiza, Thomas and Bradley all contributed to the sweep of the Twins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 04, 2006
Buck Bumped Out
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Buck Showalter was indeed fired by the Texas Rangers last night.

Showalter was 319-329 with the Rangers, his best season 89-73 in 2004 when they were in playoff contention until the final week after Alex Rodriguez was traded. They backtracked last year with only 79 wins.

"It's not about me, none of this," Showalter said after Sunday's game. "That's something I've always known. It's about the players and the fans and the people I work for."

Showalter didn't last longer than four years in his other managerial jobs. Those teams prospered after he left.

The season after Showalter's four-year tenure ended in New York in 1995, the Yankees won three of the next four World Series. That dominating streak was snapped in 2001 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the expansion team Showalter had built the three previous seasons.

So the betting money is on the Rangers to win the World Series next year. :-)

Buck's strength as a manager is strategy. He does a great job of knowing how to use players to maximize their chance to succeed. But he's also a micromanager as far as I can tell. He'd be a great bench coach for a manager whose strength is in the personal aspects of the job. As I've written before, Torre and Showalter would be a dream combination. It's too bad Buck can't over come the weakness that causes him to wear out his welcome after a few seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 03, 2006
Showalter to Go?
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XM MLB Chat notes that Bill Madden of the New York Daily News believes Buck Showalter will be fired by the end of the day.

Update: Here's some background on the story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Gonzalez to Manage Marlins
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It didn't take long for the Marlins to replace Joe Girardi, hiring Freddi Gonzalez:

Gonzalez, the third-base coach for the Atlanta Braves the past four years, interviewed with the Marlins a year ago after Jack McKeon resigned.

Gonzalez, 42, was born in Cuba and raised in Miami, becoming the first manager in the Marlins organization when they hired him to run their first minor-league team in Erie, Pa., in 1992. Beginning in 1999, he coached third base for 2 ½ years under Marlins manager John Boles.

I wonder if they expect Gonzalez to bring more Cuban fans to the ballpark? It really seems to me that this was the front office not getting their way last year, and looking for an excuse to get rid of Joe. Joe was just stubborn enough to give them an excuse. In a way, I hope he gets the Nationals job, so he can go head-to-head with the Marlins for years to come.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:02 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Fish Thrown Back
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As expected, the Marlins fired Joe Girardi.

Girardi said he was fired during a brief meeting in his office with team president David Samson, general manager Larry Beinfest and assistant general manager Mike Hill. Loria did not attend.

"They came in and said, 'We're going to make a change,'" Girardi said. He said no reason was given.

"To hash over what happened doesn't make any sense," Girardi said.

Joe's not burning any bridges. There are three teams out there right now who can use a good manager, so Joe will get a chance to show if 2006 was a fluke or not.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:37 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
October 02, 2006
Alou Out
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The Giants parted ways with Feliple Alou today. Alou made sure no one thought the Giants record was his fault:

"I'm proud of my behavior, my respect to the game, people, to the cities and countries, the flags," Alou said. "I don't like .500. A .500 man to me is mediocrity. You don't choose your tools."

The Giants are just too old. Sabean faces a tough task trying to make this team younger. Unlike the Marlins last year, he doesn't have much valuable talent to trade to build a team of hot prospects.

Bud Selig must be having a cow. One of the most admirable things Bud's done in his tenure as commissioner is encourage minority hirings. With Robinson, Baker and Alou the first three managers to go, that doesn't leave too many minority managers in the game. My guess is Baker will get a job with another club, but Robinson and Alou probably won't due to their age. I wonder if there will be pressure on clubs to fill this void?

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:41 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Dusty Bin Of History
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The Cubs and Dusty Baker officially parted ways today:

Dusty Baker is out as the Chicago Cubs' manager following a last-place finish and a failure to take the team to the playoffs in his four years.

The Cubs made the announcement Monday, a day after team president Andy MacPhail resigned and the club finished with a 66-96 record.

My biggest problems with Dusty were not having anyone ready in the bullpen in case Mark Prior tired in game 6 of the 2003 NLCS, and his desire for middle infielders who can't contribute offensively. We'll see how well he does with his next organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2006
Changes in Chicago
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The first changes in the Cubs organization came this afternoon:

The final day of the 2006 season brought massive changes to Wrigley Field on Sunday, as the Cubs turned a page on one of the worst years in recent memory.

Team president Andy MacPhail resigned after 12 years on the job, and John McDonough, senior vice-president of marketing and broadcasting, was named interim president, with no timetable offered for when the promotion might become permanent.

And while Dusty Baker appears to be gone, it looks like Hendry will stay:

"These are the greatest fans in the history of sports," McDonough said. "We have not won the World Series in 98 years. We have a terrific general manager in Jim Hendry. Jim will get all the resources that he needs, and it's time to win."

Why not clean house all together? Is a combination of another manager and Hendry going to do any better? It seems the Cubs believe that Baker got the players and just couldn't manage them to a winner. Has Hendry really gotten him the players, however? Yes, he brought in Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, drafted Mark Prior, but he still goes out and gets players like Neifi Perez, low OBA guys who drag down the offense. Not many managers can win with too many players like that. Maybe a better manager will tell Hendry he doesn't want that type of hitter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Girardi Closer to Gone
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ESPN is reporting:

Despite a season that far exceeded expectations, the Florida Marlins will move quickly this week to dismiss manager Joe Girardi and name a successor, a source familiar with the Marlins situation told ESPN Insider's Jerry Crasnick.

According to the source, the chances are "99 out of 100" that Girardi's replacement will be Braves third-base coach Fredi Gonzalez.

I really can't wait to hear Girardi's side of this story. It will be very interesting to see next year how Joe does with a new team vs. how Beinfest does with a new manager. My gut here is that the Marlins are making a mistake.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
September 30, 2006
Here's to You, Mr. Robinson
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The Nationals made it official that Frank Robinson manages his last game for Washington tomorrow. He deserves a lot of credit for keeping that franchise going when others were trying to tear it apart.

I wonder who else goes? I'm actually surprised there haven't been more firings announced.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Alou Resigning?
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Felipe Alou is sending mixed messages from San Francisco. On one hand:

"I believe I was the perfect man to make a transition when Dusty was let go," Alou said before the Giants played the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. "And I also believe I am the perfect guy now for the transition again."

On the other hand:

On Friday night, Sabean said he would sit down with the skipper before season's end, yet Alou said Saturday that was unnecessary.

"I really don't want to talk to anybody," Alou said. "I don't want to talk (about) next year. It's kind of too late to talk. ... This is a friendly thing. It is also my call, too."

I guess Felipe's feelings are hurt. Either that, or he wants out, but he needs an excuse to resign.


Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bonds and Morris
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Andrew Baggarly gives us two stories in on in his Giants notes. The first is Bonds is going to get less money if he signs with the Giants next season:

The Giants will have about $35 million to fill holes at first base, second base, third base, two outfield spots and one starting pitcher while also covering themselves in case catcher Mike Matheny and closer Armando Benitez are unable to perform.

Bonds is making $18 million this season.

"Barry aside, that type of chunk of money probably won't be dedicated to any one individual player because of our relative needs," Sabean said. "We're going to have to spread the wealth or the moneys available throughout the roster."

That means the Giants probably won't be among the front-runners for the few super-premium free agents on the market, including Alfonso Soriano.

Unless the Giants own a lot of hot talent in the minors, the last few season of trying to win one for Barry comes home to roost in 2007.

On another note, Matt Morris is scheduled to make the start in the makeup game on Monday if the NL Central isn't decided. This is actually the one thing that's gone wrong with the massive tie scenario. To tie both Houston and Cincinnati, the Cardinals need to lose on Monday. With Morris starting, that doesn't seem likely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 29, 2006
Markets at Work
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Moneyball changed the way clubs value OBA.

Update: Here's a more direct link to the post.

Update: Here's a follow up post as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 28, 2006
Where Have You Gone, Mr. Robinson?
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It looks like Frank Robinson won't be back in the dugout for the Nationals next season:

"Let me say this: I had my say. We sat down, each one, and I had my discussions with them. And I'm very comfortable with what ... I wanted to say about the situation here and my situation. Other than that, I just don't want to go into depth on anything said behind closed doors at this time."

Robinson spoke with Kasten for 20 to 25 minutes, and Bowden for a little less, and the manager said: "We agreed to make the announcement later on. ... In the very near future."

Robinson is a giant of the game, and I hope he stays involved in baseball in some capacity. However, he record as a manager is less than stellar. None of the teams he skippered had a .500 record under his tenure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 22, 2006
Girardi To Go
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Mike Berardino's sources say Joe Girardi is gone:

On a scale of 1 to 10, Girardi's chances of returning next year are "zero," according to a source who has spoken with the Marlins' front office.

"I don't think there is any chance," the source said.

At least now they are citing managerial moves as opposed to personality conflicts:

The last straw for Girardi, 41, apparently was his ill-fated decision to bring back prized right-hander Josh Johnson after an 82-minute rain delay at Dolphin Stadium on Sept. 12.

"Not one of the smarter moves of the year," said the source, adding the Marlins' decision makers were "shocked" Johnson returned to the mound that night.

With the Marlins still clinging to wild-card hopes, Johnson tried to stay loose by playing catch with Dontrelle Willis in an indoor batting cage. That Johnson left four innings later with cramping in his forearm and was subsequently shut down for the year with a strained ligament did not help Girardi's case.

Sunday's 10th-inning meltdown in Atlanta was another strike against Girardi, who had never managed at any level before this season. Marlins management was disappointed Girardi inserted little-used center fielder Reggie Abercrombie as a defensive replacement instead of the more polished Eric Reed.

Since the source here is inside the organization, I expect to hear a lot of negatives about Joe over the next few days. If he is indeed fired, I can't wait to hear his side of the story.

Based on this story, Bleed Cubbie Blue makes a case for not hiring Joe to manage the Cubs:

Now, re-read that and replace the name "Marlins" with the name "Cub", the name "Joe Girardi" with the name "Dusty Baker", replace the name "Dolphin Stadium" with the name "Wrigley Field" and replace the name "Josh Johnson" with the name "Carlos Zambrano", and how loud would all of us be screaming?

Pretty loud, I'd think.

I don't know that the Jason Johnson decision was obviously stupid. It was a gamble. Johnson pitched well when he came back from the delay as the Mets didn't score a run off him in five innings of work. And it's not like it's cold in Florida when it rains. There should have been a reasonable expectation he could stay loose. It's clear the Marlins wanted him to make the other decision, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Free Birds
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Talking Baseball is back and finds the flaws in Peter Angelos' response to the protest yesterday.

Update: Bill Ferris attended the game and writes:

I flew in from Detroit to go to the O's-Tigers game yesterday. If you're interested, here is a picture of the prostestors. They were quite vocal in support of the team for that first hour and were very civilized. That support that they showed for the first hour definitely lends their cause more creedence, in that they're pissed off because they care. Once they left things were certainly quieter as the stadium was depressingly empty and quiet.

David Gerstman sends this article and comments:

Since the stadium was built with taxpayer money, I wonder if the taxpayers of Maryland would qualify as a class to sue Angelos for abandoning his fiduciary duties. (Better team potentially more revenue for the state.) There'd be some poetic justice in that.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
September 21, 2006
I Wonder If Pam and Jim Will Throw Out the First Pitch?
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The Yankees are relocating their AAA affiliate to Scranton:

Cordaro also announced that California's Mandalay Baseball Properties will manage the franchise, which will likely be renamed. Mandalay agreed to replace the artificial surface at Lackawanna County Stadium with natural turf and will have the option of purchasing the team for $16.4 million.

The arrangements with the Yankees and Mandalay will solve the financial woes of the franchise, which is owned by the county through a stadium authority. Cordaro said the franchise has lost about $10 million over the last six years.

"We've been trying to reverse that and this gets it done in one fell swoop," Cordaro said.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 15, 2006
Gonzalez to Go
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Luis Gonzalez met with the Diamondbacks yesterday, and he's not getting the Bernie Williams deal.

It wasn't his call, but Luis Gonzalez's tenure with the Diamondbacks will end after this season. Club officials informed the popular left fielder on Thursday they have no intention of bringing him back for 2007.

Gonzalez, 39, who is in the final year of his contract, will go into the off-season as a free agent in search of an everyday job.

I can't argue with the move. The chance for a big decline for Luis is high at his age. Given his 2006 numbers, he'll get a job somewhere, although probably not for $10 million. The Diamondbacks are going younger:

Byrnes said the starting left field job in 2007 will go to Eric Byrnes, the popular, energetic outfielder with 23 homers and 21 steals in his first season with the Diamondbacks. The rest of the outfield will feature rookies Chris Young in center and Carlos Quentin in right.

Moorad also said the club made clear to Gonzalez that it would like him back in the organization when his playing days are past, perhaps as a broadcaster or a coach.

A very good move. Maybe that money saved can be spent on improving the pitching staff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 14, 2006
Gonzo's Status
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The Diamondbacks sit down with Luis Gonzalez today to discuss his future with the team:

"It's important that we sit down and see where everybody is at," Byrnes said. "We might already know what their position is - and we might not - but we'll get together and have a meeting of the minds and talk about things."

Today is expected to mark the first time the Diamondbacks officially inform Gonzalez, 39, they are not planning to exercise their $10 million club option on him for next season. Byrnes isn't likely to let Gonzalez twist in the wind, however.

Because of Gonzalez's successful eight-year tenure and his second-half surge since the All-Star break, it is believed the team will consider bringing him back for another season, possibly two, but only for a much more affordable price than the $11.5 million he is making now.

That could be anywhere from $3 million to $5 million.

Gonzalez's seasonal age will be 39 next season. He's declined from his peak, and his numbers aren't bad, they're just not great anymore. His peak and decline came much later than most players, so he's likely to be productive next year, more productive than Bernie Williams, I'd bet. I wouldn't be surprised if the Diamondbacks offered him a deal like that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 13, 2006
Girardi and Beinfest
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FishStripes rounds up news stories on a rumor he heard two months ago, that the problem with Girardi isn't Loria, but Beinfest. From the Miami Herald:

Baseball officials close to the situation say the main issue has been this: Loria likes his organization run collectively, with the front office having input beyond player procurement. And too often, Girardi has resisted those suggestions, causing a significant strain between him and the front office, including GM Larry Beinfest.

''It has been a constant fight,'' one of the officials said.

Heres what Craig at Fishstripes heard:

The rumor is that Joe has been stubborn, loud and rude when dealing with front office.

Since Girardi was hand picked as manager by Loria, when the problems started he was acting as referee to try and smooth over the conflicts.

When Girardi told Loria to sit down and shut up at the game when the owner was barking at the umpire. Well, he hollered at the ref and the ref wasn't even going to pretend to be neutral after that.

Hopefully it won't come to this, but if it is a one stays and one goes situation: Girardi will be looking for a new job next season.

Beinfest and his scouts are gold to this franchise.

This is one situation where the owner, instead of acting as referee, needs to be the boss. Beinfest this year did a great job judging young talent. Joe Girardi did a heck of a job forming that talent into a winning team. It's time Loria told them to stay out of the other's business. Unless Girardi is doing something that might physically harm a player, let him manage the team. Unless Beinfest is about to trade Miguel Cabrera for a bag of balls, let him make his moves. Should they communicate? Sure, but suggestions not orders. I believe that's how it worked in New York. Girardi should be used to that model.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 02, 2006
Time for Heads to Roll?
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If there was ever a time to be upset with the play and/or management of a team, now is the time for the Toronto Blue Jays. They came into Boston Thursday night, two games behind the Red Sox for second place in the AL East. They weren't really in the playoff hunt, but not really out of it either. The Red Sox lineup is being held together with crazy glue and duct tape. Their two best hitters are out, and one of their young pitching prospects has cancer. They just traded one of the few starters performing well over the last month. They're starting Julian Tavarez and Kyle Snyder in games one and two. It's time to move up!

But your ace gets hit in game one and you lose. Kyle Snyder looks like Pedro Martinez for a night a you lose. You put your best lineup on the field, your 1 and 3 starters and your team gets outscored and out-pitched, and dropped out of the playoff race! And what does Ricciardi say (love the title, by the way)?

"I think they're playing their butts off," Ricciardi said before last night's 2-1 loss to the Red Sox. "They're trying real hard. I think the harder we try, the worse we get."

No, if you get shutout by Kyle Snyder for seven innings, striking out eight times, you're not playing your butt off. And this:

"I don't think you're going to win this division on $70 million," Ricciardi said. "I don't think you're going to make the playoffs in this division on $70 million. You can be competitive and I think you can have some good years.

"But I just think those two teams (New York and Boston), with what they drive payrolls (to), it's going to be really tough to catch those guys if we stay at a $70 million payroll. It doesn't mean we can't be good and we can't compete. But I just don't think you're going to see a chance to win 95 to 100 games."

Tell that to the Marlins. The argument just doesn't fly. This Toronto team should have walked all over the lineup the Red Sox put out there the last two nights. There's no excuse for that.

Maybe, in fact, it is Gibbons. Maybe the Billy Martin manager doesn't work anymore. It failed for Lou Piniella in Tampa. It's failing for Gibbons in Toronto.

In Bill James' wonderful book, The Managers, he talks about families of managers, and how most managers today are descended from Ned Hanlon (the mentor of John McGraw). He goes into great detail about this family, but also mentions another, the Branch Rickey family. We may be seeing some evolution involving these two families, and the focal point is Joe Torre.

Torre, like so many working today, played baseball under Hanlon managers. But his MVP year was under Red Schoendienst, and Schoendienst managerial history can be traced back to Branch Rickey. Joe's bench coach was Don Zimmer, who came out of the Branch Rickey Dodgers (where Bill considers the Rickey family to have started). That duo produced two managers so far, Willie Randolph and Joe Girardi. Willie played for Billy Martin, but coached for Joe for years. Joe Girardi came up under Zimmer, but had great success under Torre. I wonder if we're seeing a new family being born, the Joe Torre family, which is a combination of the best of the Hanlon and Rickey families. Certainly Torre, Randoph and Girardi are experiencing great sucess in 2006. (Ron Gardenhire played for Torre early in his career, so you might include him in this group as well.)

Maybe it's time for the Jays to move away from the Hanlon managers (especially the confornational kind embodied by Billy Martin) to a Rickey/Hanlon hybrid. Francona has a little Rickey in him. Wedge, Scioscia, Maddon, Melvin and Baker are purer Rickey descendants. I don't hear much player griping about any of these men, and when they do have problems with players (Sosa, Milton Bradley), they seem to handle the situations with dignity. Maybe it's a direction Toronto should try.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
August 28, 2006
Maybe He's Refering to Clog Dancing?
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Here's the best reason I've seen for firing Dusty Baker. (Hat tip, Al's Ramblings.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2006
Analyzing Theo
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Sean Holland at Firebrand of the American League offers a detailed analysis of Theo Epstein's moves and wonders if the GM can handle the duel responsibilities of winning now and building for the future:

I love this team, just like I have since I was young. But I'm afraid that the brilliant young GM we've hired has gone two years without any noteworthy moves, wasting the primes of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Until we find a GM who can use performance analysis to sniff out the Renterias and Clements of the world, or one with the ability to decide whether to go for the now or wait for the future, we'll always be second fiddle in the AL East.

Unfortunately, I don't believe the decision about win now vs. win later belongs to Theo. If it did, I have no doubt the Red Sox would take a big step backward to build for the future. But the owners spent a lot of money to buy this team, and feel they need to win to keep the cash flowing. That makes running this team a very difficult task, and truthfully, Theo's and his staff are doing a decent job. Looking back, it's easy to say they shouldn't have made the Burkett deal, for example. But halfway through the season, that looked like a great move for both teams. In a purely win later scenario, however, the Sox keep Rameriz and take their lumps with him at shortstop, give Sanchez the chance to pitch at the major league level. Maybe next time a deal like this comes up, Theo can say, see, that didn't work out. Let's keep our talent and win for the next ten years.


Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
August 22, 2006
He'd Rather Fight and Switch
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John Gibbons and Ted Lilly appeared to fight last night.

The Toronto Blue Jays coughed up all of an early 8-0 lead last night but they didn't go down without a fight.

Unfortunately, the fight -- or near-fight, or scuffle, or whatever the Jays want to call it -- involved manager John Gibbons and his evening's short-lived starter, left-hander Ted Lilly.

And this one -- unlike the untaken challenge to fight that Gibbons had issued the soon-gone Shea Hillenbrand four weeks back -- at least had a little meat on it. Again, though, apparently no punches were thrown.

"Nobody got hit," said Gibbons, some 20 minutes after the Jays had tumbled 12-10 to the Oakland A's. "We've talked it out (meaning he and Lilly) and everything's good. He's a competitor, I'm a competitor. It's over and we move on."

Lilly agreed that no punches were thrown:

"It was verbal," said Lilly. "I'm certainly glad and I think he's glad it wasn't physical but we were on the verge of something regrettable happening. We were yelling at each other face to face.

"It's an embarrassing situation," Lilly said calmly. "I said something to him I shouldn't have said and it kind of got out of control. I was already upset enough and didn't handle it very well. I handled it in a way that I think I'll regret."

Did that mean he thought there could be some discipline headed his way? When Hillenbrand allegedly wrote the "ship was sinking" on a clubhouse bulletin board, he was designated for assignment during the game and shipped off to the San Francisco Giants two days later.

"Hopefully not," said Lilly. "I guess I'll find out."

Shea Hillenbrand got to spin this event to his benefit:

"Ted Lilly's a great guy. Ted Lilly's an intense competitor," Hillenbrand said. "He was a great teammate when I was over there. So I'm surprised that confrontation happened with Ted Lilly."

He added: "Stuff like that's been going on all season over there. I had my issues with the manager. ... They say I'm the cancer of the team and things are still happening, so I don't know how you can make that assumption or that statement. Things like that begin to come out when times get tough."

Unlike Hillenbrand, Lilly seems to be well liked. You've never heard anything negative about his personality:

Oakland's Eric Chavez, who played with Lilly in Oakland, was surprised.

"It's a little strange to seen that happen," he said. "I liked Ted. He was a good teammate when he was here."

Gibbons appears to be an old style confrontation manager. That type of style worked over the history of baseball, although most modern ones don't fight their players. Felipe Alou and Jim Leyland fit this mold, but they limit their physical intimidation to the other team. Gibbons seems to be more like Billy Martin and Lou Piniella, although I only remember Lou getting in one fight with a player.

I hear Davey Johnson is interested in managing again. All he ever did was win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:57 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
August 21, 2006
My Precious
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People are starting to gang up on Theo:

I'd say that right now The Eye of Sauron that is Red Sox nation is ominously focused on young Theo Baggins and one World Series ring isn't going to render him invisible.

And from the more traditional media:

Maybe the Red Sox are correct in their belief that they must step back to go forward.

Maybe in three years they'll resemble a mini-dynasty and the Yankees will collapse from age and excess once and for all.

But the transition is a tough sell, to put it mildly.

The Yankees go all-out every season, remaining a powerhouse while incorporating young players like second baseman Robinson Cano, left fielder Melky Cabrera and right-hander Chien Ming-Wang

It isn't beyond the Red Sox to follow suit.

We're not talking about the Kansas City Royals; the Sox's ticket prices are the highest in the majors. And while team executives seem preoccupied with managing future payrolls, Curt Schilling, David Ortiz and the rest of the Sox's $130 million-plus roster want to win right now.

The fans deserve better. The players do, too.

And the reason is Theo is blaming payroll disparity:

``Since I've been GM, we've never focused exclusively on the now, and we never will," Epstein said. ``We're not going to change because of a tough month. We are not the Yankees. We admire the Yankees. I admire the Yankees. I respect them. We have to do things different.

``Our approach is a little bit different, given our resources relative to the Yankees; we feel our best way to compete with them year in and year out is to keep one eye on now and one eye on the future and to build something that can sustain success.

``They're also very good at that," Epstein continued. ``We've gone toe-to-toe with those guys taking that approach. I think we're, what, one or two games under .500 against them, and since '03 have won one more World Series than they have taking that approach. We've been in the playoffs every year, just like they have.

``We're not going to change our approach and all of a sudden try to build an uberteam, and all of a sudden win now at the expense of the future. That's not an excuse. I'm not trying to throw some sort of a cloak over the clear holes that are on this team by sort of talking instantly about the future. I'm not. Our goals are now and our goals are to put ourselves in a position to win every single year."

This is exactly the kind of thing Theo worries about in Feeding the Green Monster, the promise of a winner every year and what happens when you don't deliver. I still think the Red Sox should have taken the step back in 2005. They had enough residual support from winning the World Series, that telling fans, "We're going to step back and rebuild so we can compete efficiently every year," would work. Now, in the middle of a season where they were leading most of the way, it sounds like an excuse.

I didn't stay up to watch the end of the game, but were the Fenway faithful chanting, "MVP, MVP," when Jeter hit the game tying single off Papelbon?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
August 19, 2006
Labor Negotiations
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Drew Olson pens an excellent piece on what the quiet over the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) means:

This year, a strike or lockout seems about as unlikely as a Brewers-Royals World Series. The silence has been both deafening and revealing.

"It's a sign that they've begun the process and they're doing things the right way," said Astros manager Phil Garner, who was active in labor negotiations during his playing days. "The less noise there is about it, the better the chance that they can get something done.

"If one of the sides says something to the media, that causes the other side to dig in their heels. It doesn't matter which side it is. As long as they can be quiet and have discussions, you can get some small stuff out of the way. Believe it or not, some the small stuff is what can kill the deal down the road. You can agree on the big things and get in the biggest arguments over the simplest of things, like meal money."

In the past, baseball commissioner Bud Selig and union chief Donald Fehr would use the media to lob threats at each other like verbal grenades. There has been none of that this year. Negotiations have been taking place away from the spotlight, but they still are taking place. The fact that Selig recently canceled a quarterly owner's meeting -- with the official reason being a lack of things to talk about -- was a pretty good indicator that acrimony is running low these days.

The last time a deal was in negotiations, you saw a lot of doom and gloom in the media because it was going down to the last minute. They always go down to the last minute:

Garner agreed. "The truth of the matter is you're really not going to get a deal until there is a time crunch," he said. "It's naïve to say "Well, let's just get in a room and get it done, a month before the deadline." People who say that simply do not understand the process. People that would do that simply would get their ass handed to them on a platter if they did that.

"If you're in a negotiating posture for anything, you always feel like if you settle two months ahead you're doing it from a position of weakness. If both sides feel pretty strong, then you should be able to get to a deal. It will come down to the end. There will be some posturing, but I think it's a good sign that they've started the process."

If you want to know if there's going to be a work stoppage, look at differences in the money they're talking about. In 2002, the difference was small, and the deal was settled. If the difference is big, or they start jousting in the press, that a sign of trouble. At this point, both sides are doing well so I don't see why just don't keep the same basic structure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 18, 2006
Buyer's Remorse?
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Heard in the Red Sox pressbox during game 1:

Johnny Damon just reminded Fenway of the kind of grabs he can make in center when he robbed Alex Gonzalez of an RBI single, making a sliding catch to his right.

"You get what you pay..." muttered one writer on press row.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 15, 2006
Why Neifi
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Bleed Cubbie Blue wonders why Dusty Baker still uses Neifi Perez.

Maybe Baker's pissed at Neifi! for the dramatic game-winning HR he hit on September 27, 1998, a walk-off job that prevented Baker's Giants from winning the wild card outright (never mind that the Giants blew a 7-0 lead in that game), and forced the dramatic tiebreaker game the next day, which the Cubs won, and thus went on to the postseason, while Dusty and the Giants stayed home -- and so maybe Baker's taking out his anger on that eight-year-old homer on us Cubs fans.

I know, that's ridiculous, but so is any other explanation of why Neifi! continues to bat second. Incidentally, the day he hit that walk-off job in Denver? He was batting second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 11, 2006
Praising Byrnes
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Bob McManaman recognizes the good job of Josh Byrnes in his first year with the Daimondbacks:

Many of Byrnes' key acquisitions that have helped Arizona remain in contention in the National League West were calculated, low-risk, high-reward moves that banked on players bouncing back from subpar half-seasons or injury.

Case in point: He traded for an All-Star catcher and former Silver Slugger in switch-hitting Johnny Estrada, who is hitting .309 and was leading all NL catchers with 57 RBIs.

Estrada was coming off a difficult season with the Atlanta Braves, which included lingering effects from a June concussion, but parting with a pair of non-spectacular relief pitchers (Oscar Villarreal and Lance Cormier) to get him now seems like a steal.

He makes a similar point about Eric Byrnes:

"I've seen Eric since he was a sophomore in college, so it was not overreacting to two or three bad months," Josh Byrnes said, "it was having a longer view of the player. And like him, it was the same thing with DaVanon."

It appears Josh doesn't get fooled by small sample sizes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 10, 2006
The Maier of New Haven
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It looks like Jeff Maier didn't get drafted, as he's joined the front office of the New Haven Cutters, an independent league team.

Maier, then a precocious 12-year-old, appeared on a series of talk shows including The Late Show with David Letterman and was awarded the key to New York by then-mayor Rudy Giuliani. The Old Tappan, N.J. native enjoyed an outstanding baseball career at Wesleyan and now is embarking on the next stage of his life -- one that begins Sunday when he starts his new job as a special events coordinator for the Cutters of the independent Can-Am League.

"There are a number of different things he will be doing," Cutters General Manager Marie Heikkinen Webb said. "There will be a lot of variety (in Maier's duties) for the remainder of season. He will be involved in community relations, promotional research here in the community, take part in special events and he will be traveling to other ball parks. He'll be pretty busy."

He's getting his foot in the door of baseball management.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 09, 2006
Joe vs. Jeff
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FishStripes follows up on the Girardi/Loria flareup. Bottom line is they're happy with each other.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 08, 2006
Family Feud
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FishStripes supplies the links and details of an apparent verbal fight between Jeff Loria and Joe Girardi. It seems Loria was stepping into Joe's territory on a 3-2 call that went against the Fish. The blogger's take:

Did something happen? Looks like it did but no one seems to know for sure what exactly happened. The "eyewitnesses" have different stories and the articles contradict each other on several points.

In short, no one knows what transpired between the two men, except them.

This I do know: it's Tuesday and Girardi is the manager of the Marlins and Loria is the owner. Best I can tell nothing is different and I seriously doubt this will turn into a Steinbrenner-Martin relationship.

I'm a little more willing to speculate. Girardi, at some point, either resigned or was fired. I'm leaning toward resignation. My guess is that Loria's been interfering with on-field activities for a while, and Joe had enough on Sunday. I can see where he would give Loria an ultimatum, and how Jeff might accept it in the heat of the moment. Somehow, cooler heads prevailed, the Girardi is back at the helm of the Marlins. We'll see how long he lasts. I don't think it will turn into Steinbrenner-Martin, because once Joe is gone, he's not coming back.

Update: Included the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
July 31, 2006
Red Sox Don't Trade
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The Boston Red Sox officially did not make a move at the deadline.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:32 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
July 30, 2006
Free Flips
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ArmChairGM looks at flipping players, trading for a player who is going to be a free agent in order to trade him for more down the road, as a new way of exploiting market inefficiencies in baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Roster Madness
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Richard Griffin explains the dizzying circumstances that led to an unusual roster for Toronto yesterday:

The one-day roster aberration demonstrated just how jangled the Jays' roster manipulations have been on this trip, as Ricciardi tries to find the right combination to reinvigorate his team into a playoff hunt. How confused was Ricciardi? Consider this pre-game exchange with the media.

"Is there a possibility you could go with 13 pitchers today?" an intrepid columnist asked the GM, less than an hour before yesterday's contest. "No," the general manager said brusquely.

"Is (infielder Ryan) Roberts here, yet?" the reporter pressed. "He's in the air," Ricciardi said, speed-walking down a nearby hallway, ending the interview.

Less than 15 minutes later, the Jays' travelling P.R. man Mal Romanin announced in the A's press box that, contrary to what the GM had just said, the Jays were indeed going to go with 13 pitchers. It seems some circumstances are even beyond Ricciardi's control.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 27, 2006
Dusty Staying Put
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Jim Hendry decided to keep Dusty Baker as manager the rest of the year.

"As far as the rest of the season goes, I let Dusty know today that he would be staying the rest of the year," said Hendry. "There won't be any discussions or questions to be asked about extensions now or anything like that. But I let him know that the next couple months, I felt it was best for the club that he complete the season and not worry about that."

Obviously, anti-Baker fans need a site like this.

The Cubs are playing well tonight as Walker and Barrett go deep back-to-back off Jeff Weaver to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
A Growing Field
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Sabernomics notes it's a good day for sports economists:

"When I wrote about public finance and designed fiscal policy that would work, no one really called," Bradbury says. "I get calls from reporters all the time now. ... The market is giving me a signal."

He also offers advice for those interested in the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 24, 2006
Done Deal
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The Washington Nationals now belong to the group headed by Ted Lerner. The deal was finalized today. The new ownership made their first personnel move, hiring Mike Rizzo as assistant GM.

I wish this group luck and hope this marks the start of a turnaround for an abused franchise.

Update: In other Nationals news, Jose Guillen needs Tommy John surgery. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, it's tough to know where he'll be next year, if he can even play in 2007. My guess is he'll need to take a pay cut to prove he can hit and field once again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:23 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 23, 2006
The Mind of Dombrowski
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USA Today presents an interesting profile of Dave Dombrowski, focusing on his incredible memory:

Dave Dombrowski knows what the words mean. He has been a baseball executive for three decades, and over time, he has demonstrated his own tool -- his memory -- one his friends and employees describe as astonishing, intimidating and just plain freaky.

"Well, it's not photographic," said Dombrowski, who turns 50 on Thursday. "I do forget things."

Dombrowski, the Detroit Tigers' president and general manager, has between his ears a version of the Baseball Encyclopedia, Tigers scouting manifest and this morning's box scores. In speaking with scouts, he has been known to quote, word for word, from reports they wrote about some Double-A lefthander several years before.

"The thing is, he doesn't just remember the report," said Tigers scout Mike Russell, who worked for the Florida Marlins during Dombrowski's tenure there. "He remembers the exact conversation."

"Phenomenal," said Gary Hughes, a Chicago Cubs executive and close Dombrowski friend. "That's his thing."

Think about it: Would you want your boss to remember all the details of something you did five years ago?

"It's just something I was blessed with," said Dombrowski, who is under contract with the Tigers through the end of next season. "You take advantage of things you have. Some guys hit a baseball. Some of them run fast. I've always been blessed with that.

Before the expansion draft in 1992, Dombrowski addressed the ESPN crew covering the event. I was extremely impressed with his intelligence, composure, and command of the audience. It looks like he's going to get the chance to build a long term winner this time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 21, 2006
Defending Gibbons
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Bob Sikes calls on his experience with John Gibbons to defend the Blue Jays manager.

Naturally there are naysayers out there who say that it could have been handles differently. Hillenbrand has the chutzba to say it was unprofessional of Gibbons to call him out that way. It was Hillenbrand who wrote things on the team bulletin board as "play for yourself" and "this is a sinking ship". No. The gutsy Gibbons took matters into his own hands, didn't let a boil fester, and lanced it.

The Blue Jays may or may not make the post-season. If they do they can point to an incident where their manager unselfishly went outside himself and confronted the bully. And the bully left town.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
July 19, 2006
Quoting Dusty
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Ivy Chat finds a Dusty Baker quote and makes this comment about it:

If only there were a job on a major league team that could order players to practice?

There's something for a smart GM to invent!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 18, 2006
Patience Outbreak
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Dodger Thoughts notes Ned Colletti is practicing patience, while WasWatching finds the same thing going on in the Bronx.

Colletti:

Colletti acknowledged the possibility that the deadline could pass without the Dodgers making another significant move to follow their June 27 trade with Tampa Bay, when they acquired left-hander Mark Hendrickson and catcher Toby Hall.

"I'm not inclined to trade away players who I believe can have a strong impact on this franchise in 2007, 2008 and 2009 for a player who isn't going to make a significant difference for us over those last two months and isn't going to be of value to us next year," Colletti said.

Cashman:

"Patience might not be the right word," he says. "We have a game plan, and we're sticking to it. If circumstances present themselves that fall into what we're trying to accomplish both short term and long term, then we'll become very aggressive. If not, we'll pass."

This reminds me, never buy a car the first time you talk to the dealer. The less interested you seem, the better price you'll get.


Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Cubs Stability
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Bleed Cubbie Blue links to an article pushing for Baker to stay for two more years, because the Cubs need stability. There's an excellent discussion of this in the comments.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 17, 2006
The Merv Rettenmund Show
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Ducksnorts looks at the improvement of three young Padres since Merv Rettenmund replaced Dave Magadan as hitting coach.

Merv was very well known in his time as a player as an excellent person to platoon or use as a pinch hitter. He had a great OBA but not much power. I only remember positive things about him as a hitting coach over the last 25 years. His success with the three Padres chronicled above may tell why. He's not trying to get the three to do the same thing. He appears to look at each player, find his strength, and exploit that. This always struck me as the right approach. Find what the player can do, and teach him how to leverage his ability.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 13, 2006
Gary Gone
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Brew Crew Ball offers thoughts on the dismissal of Astros hitting coach Gary Gaetti.

I would imagine that this move, more than anything else, is about trying to replicate the effect of changing managers in 2004, trying to trigger something like last season's 2nd half run. Gaetti was the obvious choice because the Astros offense is so putrid. I doubt it's about the hitting coach, though. That is, unless it was GG's decision to start the year with Brad Ausmus, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras in the starting lineup.

It's also interesting to note why the Astros promoted Sean Berry into the spot:

The Astros promoted minor league hitting coordinator Sean Berry to replace Gaetti. Purpura said Berry would be the hitting coach for the rest of this season, then be evaluated at the end.

"He brings a real fresh approach," Purpura said. "He's very computer literate, very conversational with the hitters and has a real plan for hitting we hope to implement."

We'd all love to see the plan. I'm glad to see that the Astros consider computer literacy a plus for a coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 11, 2006
New Job for Baird
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The Red Sox hired Allard Baird as a scout:

"The Red Sox expect to win every day," he said. "This is a club whose goal every year is to win the World Series. That's exciting."

It's certainly quite a change for the former Royals GM.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
With Mentors Like That
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Phil Garner name Chuck Tanner the honoary coach for the All-Star game:

Chuck Tanner was back in the limelight Monday, telling engaging stories of when baseball really mattered in the Steel City and how tough ballplayers were back in the day.

Yes, in his day, players just snorted cocaine to make them strong. And even if they were usings steroids, Tanner would have no clue.

Garner wanted Tanner, whom he considers his mentor, to be the center of attention and provide him another chance to relive the glory days of the Pirates' magical 1979 World Series championship.

Tanner didn't tell reporters how he also was the model for managers to ignore drug abuse. He turned a blind eye to the dealing going on in the Pirates club house, much as Tony La Russa did in Oakland and St. Louis. Garner could have made a better choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
The Baker Watch
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Carlos Zambrano thinks Dusty's in the wind:

"I think most people in Chicago figure Dusty will be fired," Zambrano said. "He's a good man and he's trying the best way possible to win. Nobody likes to lose. But when you have a whipping, you take it and there's nothing you can do about it."

What will Zambrano's thinking be if the Cubs do let Baker go?

"Just move on," he said. "Move on and make the next step. There's nothing you can do about it. You're there to do your job and to play. Anything else, you have to go to the general manager."

The Kane County Chronicle looks at the reason why:

The problems in this latest Cubs debacle are no secret - and not at all new.

Wood is done for the year after it was revealed he has a torn rotator cuff that has put his career in jeopardy. Mark Prior and Derrek Lee missed extended time. The starting rotation, not protected from the inevitable injuries of Prior and Wood by general manager Jim Hendry, were forced to rely on young - (Sean Marshall, Rich Hill and Carlos Marmol), old (Greg Maddux) and ineffective (Glendon Rusch and Jerome Williams).

The other issues - lack of hustle, problems running the bases, disturbing trouble with fundamentals - are the indictments against Baker. After all, the Cubs struggled in the first half, but not even a team without Prior and Wood and Lee should have been this bad, in this league and in this division.

"[The players] have a responsibility to play the game the right way and to play as hard as they can every day," Hendry said last month. "Effort is not a choice, it's a given. There is no excuse to be this far under .500 no matter who we have hurt."

For those who say this is Hendry's fault, I agree. But a manager usually has input into the makeup of the roster. If I heard stories that Dusty was marching into Hendry's office asking for high on-base guys, I'd be more in the give Dusty another chance camp. But my feeling is Baker and Hendry are on the same page in terms of roster selection. I'd like to see them both go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
July 05, 2006
Pinky, Are You Pondering What I'm Pondering?
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It's looks like Jim Hendry's recent vote of confidence in his manager was short lived:

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry told Chicago reporters Tuesday he would use the four-day All-Star break to decide whether an overhaul, which could include firing manager Baker, is in order.

"I'll spend a lot of time over the break not just with the way the situation is, but with your own players. I'll sit back and reflect on the first half," Hendry told reporters.

"You are getting ready to go into a month where you have to evaluate what you have. You want to give everyone a fair chance to succeed," he said.

Actually, this story would be a lot stronger if it actually quoted Hendry talking about Dusty.

Update: Bleed Cubbie Blue has much more, including the idea that Razor Shines might be the next manager. Razor Shines is one of the great baseball names, along with Drungo La Rue Hazewood that just never made it in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
July 03, 2006
I Guess it Matters How You Define Old
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Jim Hendry isn't interested in conducting a fire sale:

'To be successful by next year, a blowup's not in order,' Hendry said. 'You need to go back and look at how we might have done things that haven't been successful, and keep the parts that we think are going to be successful.

'If you look at it constructively, you still have a lot of people who are quality major-league players and are not old. That can help you next year.'

Notice he doesn't say young. So what is not old? Let's look at the Cubs current roster, including players on the DL.

AgeNumber of Players
<255
25-2911
30-348
35-392
40+1

That's not a bad distribution of talent. However, if you accept that 27 is the peak age for athletes, 18 of the 27 players on the roster are 28 or older. There are seven players in int 25-29 group who are seasonal age 28 or 29. That's a group that ripe for trading for youngsters. Other teams can expect to get something out of this group, while the Cubs can pick up good prospects. Pierre, Ramirez and Barrett are all in that group. It's a good set of players to trade.

The Cubs are old enough that one would expect this squad to be more likely to get worse, not better next year. Going for prospects might mean winning is two or three years down the road, but done properly it may also mean steady winning for a number of years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Expanding Horizons
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The Nationals signed a 16-year-old Dominican shortstop yesterday, and say they are going to be active on the international stage:

"This lets other teams know we are a player," Kasten said by phone. "We will take a back seat to no one -- repeat: no one -- when it comes to pursuing talent."

The Nationals have been under the stewardship of Major League Baseball since 2002, but their sale to a group led by Theodore Lerner will be completed later this month. Kasten said scouting and signing players from abroad is essential to building the Nationals' operations, adding that the Nationals will soon establish a presence in Asia.

"You have to out-scout and outbid people," Kasten said. "And you have to build relationships. To make these signings, the appropriate relationships have to be in place."

This is a very good sign things are changing for the better in Washington.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 02, 2006
Knocking Ned
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Jon Weisman notes a rare criticism of Ned Colletti. It's a good one, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:58 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Shakeup in St. Louis
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After losing to the Royals last night, the Cardinals may be headed for a shakeup:

Moments after the Cardinals loaded the bases with none out and failed to score in the 10th inning, Jason Isringhausen allowed Royals third baseman Mark Teahen a leadoff home run to begin the 11th. The Royals, who dropped leads of 6-0 and 7-6, held on for an 8-7 win that sent general manager Walt Jocketty, manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan behind closed doors long after a subdued clubhouse cleared.

The Cardinals remain percentage points ahead of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central but have retreated to seven games over .500 (43-36) for the first time since May 8.

"It's not a dangerous thing to know you can play better baseball. But if you wait to fix things, it could be dangerous," said Jim Edmonds, who gave the Cardinals 7-7 tie with a one-out, ninth-inning pinch home run.

That Edmonds quote is interesting. I'm not sure how to interpret it? Is he saying management might make things worse if they try a fix? Or that individual players might make things worse by trying fixes? Maybe Edmodns, whose power is way off this year, is worried about himself.

Cardinals Diaspora offers advice on changing the rotation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
July 01, 2006
DePo a Padre
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The Padres hired Paul DePodesta on Friday:

Paul DePodesta, a former general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, has joined the Padres as a special assistant for baseball operations. He will report to CEO Sandy Alderson, the club said Friday.

DePodesta, 33, was fired by Dodgers owner Frank McCourt after L.A.'s injury-riddled, 71-91 season in 2005. The previous year, which began with DePodesta receiving a guaranteed five-year contract from McCourt, the Dodgers won their first National League West title since 1995.

They have a real interesting mix of former GMs in the organization:

The Padres' front office now includes four former major-league GMs: Alderson, who held the job with Oakland from 1983-97; director of international scouting Randy Smith, a former GM with the Padres (1993-95) and Detroit Tigers (1995-2001); Ed Wade, a former Phillies GM (1998-2005) now serving as an assistant to Towers; and DePodesta, who joined the A's shortly after Alderson left Oakland to work in the commissioner's office.

I thought Randy Smith was rather useless as a general manager. Ed Wade made some good moves for the Phillies, but overall his tenure there was nothing special. I would expect Alderson, DePodesta and Towers to be a formidable brain trust. It's good to see Paul back in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2006
New Management
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Sell the Phillies is a new blog devoted to getting new ownership and management for the Phillies. Stop by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Phillies and Myers
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Scott Palmer, the Public Affairs point man for the Phillies gives a very frank interview on the Brett Myers situation.

"Generally, were there mistakes made?" Palmer said. "Any time you have an issue like this in which a decision has to be made as quickly as this one, and with as many parties as were involved - the agent, the lawyer, court system, the Phillies, Brett, Kim - with that many parties involved in a decision of this magnitude... were mistakes made in that entire group? In my opinion, yes."

Myers, 25, was arrested early Friday morning. He pitched the next day at Fenway Park and received a verbal flogging from fans, who booed every time he walked to the mound. Since then, the pitcher has taken a leave of absence, but both he and the organization continue to be vilified, Myers for his alleged actions, the team for not benching him immediately.

"We were forced to make a very serious decision in a limited amount of time without as many facts that came out 48 hours later," Palmer said. "We had to take into account a number of things, including Brett's wishes [to continue pitching].

"As far as the criticism that started Monday [after Myers pitched], I understand. Eyewitness accounts came out. There was access to new information that we didn't have at first.

"If we knew as much at the beginning, we certainly would have recommended he not pitch. Once we understood the magnitude, we did everything we could to address the matter and help Brett put his life back in order."

Update: I have to disagree with the Phillies on the T-Shirt issue, however:

From about 11:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. yesterday, readers of the Web site could buy merchandise that included T-shirts, thongs and even shirts for their dogs that had "wife beater" and "39" written on them.

Myers wears No. 39 for the Phillies.

"The Phillies find it extremely offensive that any person or business would make fun of the very serious issue of domestic abuse, much less attempt to make money from it," the Phillies said in a statement.

Maybe if more wife beaters were publicly humiliated there might be fewer of them. They're not making fun of domestic abuse, they're just abusing the abuser non-violently.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2006
PC and OG
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Political correctness caught up to Ozzie Guillen today.

On Tuesday to reporters, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen referred to Chicago Sun-Times columnist and Around the Horn contributor Jay Mariotti as a derogatory name for a homosexual.

Angry with a recent column by Mariotti critical of Guillen's handling of recently demoted relief pitcher Sean Tracey and upset with Mariotti with columns of the past, Guillen said to reporters when referring to Mariotti before Tuesday's game with the Cardinals, "What a piece of [expletive] he is, [expletive] fag."

Ozzie says the word fag is used differently in Venezulea.

Guillen said that in his native Venezuela, that word is not a reference to a person's sexuality, but to his courage. He said he was saying that Mariotti is "not man enough to meet me and talk about [things before writing].''

Guillen also told Couch that he has gay friends, attends WNBA games, went to a Madonna concert and plans to go to the Gay Games in Chicago.

"I called that of this man [Mariotti],'' he told Couch. "I'm not trying to hurt anybody [else]."

I thought he was calling him a cigarette, myself. The problem of course, is that Ozzie didn't finish the insult with, "Not that there's anything wrong with that!"

And how is the stereotyping going? WNBA? Madonna concerts! I bet he likes Barbara Streisand albums and Judy Garland movies, too. Just keep digging your own grave, Ozzie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2006
Risking Winning
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Geoff Young at Ducksnorts uses the Padres situation at third base to explore why people are risk adverse when they are winning, more adventurous when they are losing. He's looking for help with the answers:

We need to find a way through this "mental tunnel." We need to challenge our own thought processes and continue to innovate despite the potential risk to current success or else we risk "losing" additional future success. I'm mostly talking about baseball here, but it could be anything.

How do we get to that point? How do we avoid the trap of mindless risk aversion when all is going well -- especially when millions of dollars are at stake?

I don't have an answer to these questions. Like I said, I'm not smart enough to figure it out on my own. But I'm sure folks have some good ideas.

Okay. So, what are they?

He wants to know why choices are different in this situation:

He houses his discussion in the context of wagers, submitting that we will choose a sure gain over a probable gain, but choose a probable loss over a sure loss, even when the amounts -- the "calculus of expected values" -- are identical. The example provided, from studies conducted by pioneering researchers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, is as follows:
  1. Sure gain of $75.
  2. 75% chance of winning $100, 25% chance of winning nothing.
  3. Sure loss of $75.
  4. 75% chance of losing $100, 25% chance of losing nothing.

Given the choice between A and B, more subjects chose A. However, given the choice between C and D, the majority chose D. This doesn't make sense because both A and C represent certainty, while B and D involve risk with no additional overall reward. Either A and C should be preferred, or B and D. There would be consistency of thought here. Preference for A and D violates any concept of rational decision-making.

Let me give this a try. The 75% scenario represents probability over a long time. In other words, if you play the 75% win game thousands of times instead of just taking the $75 dollars, you come out about the same. You might come out a little better, but you also might come out a little worse. Taking the $75 each time puts a floor on the minimum you can pick up. It cuts off half of the possible outcomes of playing the game, all more negative than taking the $75 dollars. The fewer games you play, the more you're decreasing your risk.

In the other situation, the exact opposite takes place. You're going to lose money. By playing the game, you're giving yourself a 50% shot of losing less. If you play a lot, you won't lose a lot more than $75 per time, but you might actually save some money. And if you play just a few times, you might get lucky and save a lot. It seems to me it's a perfectly rational decision in terms of the probabilities.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:52 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Down on the Farm
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This quote is from a couple of day ago, but still worth repeating:

Bowden, the general manager of the Washington Nationals, believes there are 11 teams with which the Nationals might be able to trade one of their veterans for prospects. The Yankees, who boast pitching prospect Philip Hughes in the minors, are included in that group, as are the Los Angeles Angels, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets, Boston and Toronto.

"I've never seen the Yankees' farm system completely dry," Bowden said. "Every time I look in the big leagues, they keep bringing them up there, and everyone always says it's dry. It's not that dry. It's wet enough for me."

My take is the Yankees are better off getting their system flooded than trading for short term success again. But with all the talk of how poor the Yankees minor leagues are, they have come up with some decent players the last two years. If you can produce one major leaguer starter a year, you're in pretty good shape.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 19, 2006
Focus on Manuel
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Pat Gillick is sticking with Charlie Manuel:

Manuel "can't go out there and play for them," Gillick said. "There's been inconsistency with our pitching, and pitching kind of sets the tone."

But Gillick has noticed that pitching isn't the only problem. He characterized his team's poor play of late as "a lack of concentration," and said his manager and coaches "have kept the guys focused as much as possible."

It strikes me that getting players to focus is the manager's job. What Gillick appears to be saying here is that no one could get the players to focus more. I find that tough to believe. If it is true, however, maybe it's time to make a "you're not so good that I won't move you" trade. Send one of the good, non-concentrating vets to a team like Kansas City to make the others take notice. If it's not the manager, maybe it's time to remake the club. As the Marlins showed over the winter, there's plenty of prospects to be had for good talent.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2006
Change of Philosophy
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Dayton Moore does not want prospects to jump from AA to AAA.

"They're still in Double-A," general manager Dayton Moore said, "and I've always been a firm believer that it's important for guys to move throughout your system in a very natural way.

"And that natural way is going to Triple-A and going through the grinds of the Pacific Coast League and some of the adjustments they'll have to make against a different style of pitcher. That's always been my belief."

That marks the first evidence of a firm philosophical change since Moore replaced Allard Baird. Under Baird, the Royals regularly promoted prospects from Class AA Wichita while preferring to stock Omaha with older, borderline veterans as a taxi squad of sorts for the big-league club.

"It's a different style of play at Triple-A," Moore said. "It's a different mind-set that a player has at Triple-A. It's an older-player league. It's a different style of baseball, and (a prospect) needs that experience to draw from later in their careers."

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 16, 2006
No More Video Rooms
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The Rockies are innovating, using iPods to allow their players to watch videos of pitchers and hitters any time, any place. I recently bought one for my daughter after finding out college students are using these to rewatch and rehear lectures. Something designed for entertainment is finding myriad educational uses.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:57 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Knorr a Knat
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Randy Knorr replaced John Wettland today as the Nationals bullpen coach:

Wetteland lost his job Thursday. Manager Frank Robinson said he asked Wetteland several times to get the team's relievers to focus more and cut down on pranks, such as lighting firecrackers.

Sounds like having a blast in the bullpen is over. The Nationals relievers are walking almost a batter every other inning. I can see why Robinson wants them to concentrate more. My guess, however, is they need to find the ringleader of the pranks and get rid of him. There's obviously some disrespect for authority in the relief corps. In that case, this might be a better choice for the bullpen coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bochy Botching Games?
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Friar Faithful doesn't like the way Bruce Bochy handled the pitching staff the last two days.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Whither DePodesta?
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I've been wondering what Paul DePodesta is doing. Here's the answer:

For the better part of Paul DePodesta's adult life, the 7 p.m. hour meant it was five minutes from first pitch.

These days, that's bathing time for his 2-year-old son and 5-month-old daughter, and DePodesta is happy to spend the time with his family in their Los Angeles home.

He's also building houses:

He's exploring what his next career move will be, and is happy to do some volunteer work for Habitat for Humanity in the greater Los Angeles area, doing mostly construction.

About once a week, DePodesta hammers nails, pours concrete, puts up dry wall, or "whatever else they tell me to do."

Nobody around him knows he used to run the Dodgers.

"I'm just like anybody else," DePodesta said by telephone from Los Angeles. "Just another guy wearing a baseball hat and safety goggles."

Good for him. It sounds like this break came just at the right time. He gets to help around the house, help others and recharge for the next job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 15, 2006
Demoted for Doing Your Job?
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If this story is true, Ozzie Guillen and Ken Williams go into the baseball jerks category:

White Sox rookie pitcher Sean Tracey got into hot water with his manager Ozzie Guillen -- for getting an out.

Tracey was summoned to start the seventh inning and got Hank Blalock to ground out, but getting an out might not have been the reason Tracey was brought into the game. White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski was hit by two pitches in the game and a source told the Chicago Sun-Times that Tracey was told to hit Blalock as retaliation. Tracey threw two inside pitches to Blalock before getting him to ground out.

After getting the out, Tracey was removed from the game. Guillen slammed a water bottle to the ground when Blalock grounded out and the manager then brought Agustin Montero in to pitch. Guillen was then seen in the dugout barking at Tracey, who pulled the collar of his jersey over his head.

Guillen's explanation makes no sense:

Guillen didn't address why he screamed at Tracey and had a different explanation why he took the rookie out of the game.

"I tried to get Montero ready [to face Blalock] and wasn't able to. It was a little late," Guillen explained. "It was my mistake. I didn't get him up quick enough. I didn't want Tracey in that situation."

Pierzynski gets hit by pitches a lot. Maybe it's the way he stands at the plate. If a pitcher doesn't want to hit another human being with a deadly object, that should be fine. He got the out, after all, and when you're trying to win a ball game, that's a tad more important.

Update: South Side Sox has more on this. It seems Tracey did try to hit Blalock, he just wasn't very good at it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:08 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
June 14, 2006
Money for Nothing
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There was speculation a couple of days ago that the Diamondbacks would release Russ Ortiz. It's now happened.

Ortiz is believed to be the most expensive player to be cut loose in baseball history.

The club designated the struggling right-hander for assignment, which means it has 10 days to trade, waive or release him. The team is on the hook for the balance of the $33 million, four-year contract Ortiz signed in December 2004, a figure general manager Josh Byrnes said was close to $22 million.

It's a gutsy move. Ortiz is not helping them win.

"We're like most clubs: Every dollar counts. You want to spend them as effectively as possible," Byrnes said at a Chase Field news conference. "That affected the decision, but we also were true to ourselves, and we want to put our best 25 on the field and try to win games. That led us to our decision.

"We have to spend all our dollars wisely, and obviously we owe Russ a lot of money going forward," Byrnes said. "The flip side is we probably have more young talent than anyone in baseball, and that's a good thing as managing the payroll."

In other words, they have a few years before their young talent is able to demand a lot more money. This move stands in stark contrast to the Angels and the Jered Weaver situation. Of course, it's an easier move for Byrnes to make since he didn't make the original mistake of signing Ortiz.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2006
Stop! This is Harrrrrd!
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The Kansas City Royals made a very dumb move by revoking the press passes of two reporters after their questions at the press conference to introduce Dayton Moore. Now the Press Club wants them re-instated.

At the news conference Thursday, the two reporters grilled owner David Glass over his handling of the dismissal of former general manager Allard Baird.

A release from the Kansas City Press Club states, "The questions asked at the press conference were tough, but fair. The game played at Kauffman Stadium is hardball, not softball, after all."

"Decisions made in the heat of the moment often lead to mistakes," the statement reads. "But now that time has elapsed, the Kansas City Press Club trusts that cooler head will prevail, credentials will be reinstated quickly, and the focus will return to where it belongs: getting the Royals back to winning form."

The Royals need all the help they can get to turn this franchise around. An angry press doesn't help. It just make Glass and his team look immature, and gives these two radio host more publicity than they probably deserve. If you're going to be in the public eye, you're going to get questions about your every move. And when the process was confused as the Dayton Moore hiring, you deserve a lot of them. Banning reporters isn't going to stop that; my guess is others will take up the slack.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:56 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Rethinking Ryan
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The Argus Leader takes Terry Ryan to task over his off-season moves. From not trading Lohse to picking up White, Batista and Castillo, nothing worked out. I wonder if this is one of those situations where Terry's strength is the draft, not the trade. He's great at recognizing good young talent, but not so good at evaluating mature talent. (After all, he did let David Ortiz go.) So when the Twins were playing poorly, low draft picks allowed him to play to his strength and build a club from within. But with the Twins winning the last few years, even that job is tougher. I'd be interested in hearing from Twins fans on this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
June 08, 2006
Davey Johnson Returns
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The Washington Nationals hired Davey Johnson as a special consultant through July 31st. And while people will speculate he's being groomed to replace Frank Robinson, that doesn't seem to be the case. Bowden worked with Johnson in Cincinnati and wants his opinion on minor league prospects as the Nationals work toward the trade deadline.

I'm just glad to see Davey working his way back into professional baseball. He was jaded for a while, working for a college. He said he didn't want to manage again. That still may be true, but I wonder if Davey would be willing to be a general manager. He's smart, knows talent and given his success as a player and a manager could execute a Moneyball strategy without much criticism. Maybe it's Bowden he'll be replacing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 02, 2006
Young Yankees
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Andy Phillips went deep tonight to cut the Orioles lead to 2-1. The first baseman is starting to hit, something he did well in the minor leagues. He's another example of a first baseman that probably was available and could have solved someone's problem over the last few years.

For a team that's not supposed to posess minor league talent, the Yankees are doing a good job of bringing along youngsters. Cano, Wang, Cabrera and now Phillips are all contributing (granted, Phillips isn't that young). That's not a bad two years for any team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sabean's Job
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Gary Peterson notes the success the Giants enjoyed under Brian Sabean's management, and compares his job to Billy Beane's (seems here's a lot of beans in the Bay Area):

Not only that, we keep coming back to the tightly focused mission statement Sabean has been expected to fulfill. If it can rightly be said that Sabean hasn't exactly stocked the farm the past 10 years, it can also rightly be said that it hasn't exactly been an organizational mandate. Bonds, and the window of success he has represented, has been the top priority.

Thus, Sabean's task has differed from that of say, Oakland's Billy Beane, who for years was asked to groom replacements for the fabulous players the A's were going to have to let slip away when their contracts expired.

Sabean could not serve the Bonds window with players who would be on top of their game three years from now. He has needed known quantities, veteran players who already were as good as they were going to get. He needed players who would complement Bonds' skills, and who would work for wages that would complement his hefty salary. The older Bonds has gotten, and the higher his salary has soared, the more exacting Sabean's task has become.

Which brings up the question, will Sabean adjust once Bonds is gone? Will he know how to build a team from within without years of practice? Or when Bonds goes, does Brian go with him?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2006
More Royals Changes
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According to the Onion, the Royals hired Tom Emanski as a new coach, entrusted with teaching the team fundamentals.

"Of course, even if you master all the fundamental drills—the Bare Hand Drill, Soft Toss Creep, 'V' Drill, 'X' Drill, and Rocket Relay—there is still the issue of talent," Emanski added. "I'm no miracle worker. But, with a lot of hard work and a little luck, I truly believe that a few of these Royals will someday have the skills you need to play in the major leagues."
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 31, 2006
Baird Fired
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Royals Authority links to the story.

Sources say Moore is getting a five-year contract and complete control over baseball operations in a commitment to turn around a franchise that has lost 100 or more games in three of the last four seasons.

Moore, 39, is expected to take control, officially, next week upon completion of baseball’s two-day draft. Sources said assistant general manager Muzzy Jackson will replace Baird on an interim basis.

Something had to be done, why it took so long is anyone's guess. Dayton now gets the chance to reach his potential. I wish him good luck, the Kansas City fans need it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 30, 2006
Mazzone Not Helping
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Rick Maese of the Baltimore Sun notes that the Orioles pitching staff regressed from last year despite the addition of Leo Mazzone:

The signing of Mazzone was still a good one, much better than throwing money at A.J. Burnett, Esteban Loaiza or Jeff Weaver. (And never mind the Cubs' trade proposal - Mark Prior for Miguel Tejada . Jim Hendry should face fraud charges for even floating that one.)

But it's reasonable to expect a return on the investment before the All-Star break. Last year at the break, the Orioles had a 4.41 ERA. With four of the five same starters, it's currently at 5.61, trailing only the woeful Royals.

Maybe Tim Hudson was right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 29, 2006
Damon's Worlds
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Joe Posnanski continues his great writing on the Kansas City Royals GM situation. Today, he looks at Johnny Damon and how he was lucky to get out of a world where wins are few and cherished to a world where a one-run victory over the Royals has to be defended.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 28, 2006
Can You Fire the Owner?
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Joe Posnanski continues to pound Royals owner David Glass over his treatment of Allard Baird:

Actually, watching Royals general manager Allard Baird at work says it all. Let's be honest, Baird was publicly fired almost four weeks ago. David Glass told three different news operations that he was going to make major changes. When pressed, he left no doubt that Baird was going to be fired. Not that this was wrong: The Royals have lost 100 games in three of Baird's five full seasons. They’re going to lose 100 games this season.

Baird had to be fired. That’s sports. That’s life.

But here's the thing. Glass did not fire Baird then. He did not fire Baird after a week or two weeks either. He still has not fired Baird. According to Baird, David Glass has not even called. The amateur draft is in about a week, and Glass has not given Baird a budget. People throughout the organization call Baird every day to ask him what's happening. Baird does not know what to tell them.

“I say, ‘Look, we've got a job to do,’ ” Baird says. “Let's do it.”

But there's a big positive in the story, too. Glass is talking to Dayton Moore:

David Glass has done one impressive thing. He has offered his general manager's job to Dayton Moore. True, you would have liked to see Glass mention something about this to his current general manager first. But in any case, Moore is admired throughout baseball. He would make a terrific choice. Many people around the game are impressed (and stunned) that Glass was even able to get Moore to listen to a Royals offer.

Of course, even here there is trouble lurking. Moore is reportedly nervous about taking the job because of … well, David and Dan Glass. He apparently needs assurances in writing that he will be given complete control of baseball operations. The fact that one of the best young minds in baseball needs assurances that he will be free of meddling from Royals president Dan Glass — who prepared for his baseball career by working in jewelry retail and real estate development — just about says it all.

Posnanski goes so far as to say the league should step in if Moore refuses the job because he won't be in control:

I do know this: If David Glass loses Dayton Moore because he refuses to cede all baseball authority — and I mean all baseball authority — well, the league office should step in, as the NBA did when former owner Ted Stepien was running the Cleveland Cavaliers into the ground. Because if the Glasses aren't smart enough to realize they're not smart enough to turn this team around … there’s no hope.

This whole article makes me wonder if the Royals problems are a result of Baird doing a bad job, or Baird being forced to do a bad job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Baker Backed
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Jim Hendry unequivocally stated yesterday that Dusty Baker won't be fired.

'I've been hearing every time we lose a ballgame that Dusty is going to get fired,' Hendry said Saturday. 'People were reporting that he would be fired if we lost three to the White Sox, that he was going to get fired after the last Marlin game [Wednesday]. That is not going to happen.

'Dusty is going to get every opportunity to manage the club and get us out of this hole and get the opportunity to manage the club when it gets healthy here in the next couple of weeks.

'I'd like to put that speculation--that every time we lose a ballgame [his status is open to] public discussion every single day--to an end.'

Of course, if Hendry fires Baker and the team keeps losing, then you start to wonder if it's not the manager's fault. Maybe it's the GM who put the players on the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 26, 2006
Pattern Recognition
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A great post on pattern recognition and Ken Macha at Catfish Stew:

Sometimes Ken Macha drives me nuts, and sometimes it's because I think he's making an irrational decision, but I think the ones that drive me the most nuts are the ones that seem too rational. It's like Macha won't trust his pattern recognition tools at all, and requires rational, empirical proof that X is Y before he'll act on it.

Barrett and Pierzynski come up in this post, and A.J. made it into a my thoughts on pattern recognition last October.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Recognizing Talent
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Via Baseball Primer Newsblog, Dejan Kovacevic wants to know why the Pirates don't give the starting third base job to Freddy Sanchez? Littlefield keeps saying Randa starts once he's healthy. Not even Randa agrees with that:

When it was mentioned to Randa this week that the Pirates say he will reclaim third base once healthy, he quickly retorted: "Oh, I wouldn't be too sure about that. I don't know how this is going to play out, but Pittsburgh has to be just ecstatic with what Freddy's doing."

Randa, hitting .221 before his injury, pointed to the team's 14-33 record as a possible sign that management could wind up discarding veterans or reducing their roles.

Maybe Randa has more sense than the Pirates front office. Look what happened to the one person who thought Sanchez could do the job:

The subject was third base.

Was there anyone good enough in house?

Should they trade?

Try free agency?

One member of management spoke up in favor of the player who batted .291, second best on the team, and flashed a fine glove in his first full season of Major League Baseball.

"My vote was for Freddy Sanchez," that official, now employed elsewhere, recalled recently. "He hits for contact, catches everything. Great attitude, too. I told them: You could win with Freddy Sanchez as your everyday third baseman."

Employed elsewhere. If Mark Cuban buys the team, find out the name of this source and hire him back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 23, 2006
Leyland's Expectations
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With the Tigers in first place, Jim Leyland discusses his expectations for the team this season:

"My goal is to get people in the seats and get them interested in Tigers baseball, that's the goal for the year," he said. "I don't have any goals for wins, and I don't have any goals for losses, and I don't have any goals for where we finish. I just want to play well and get people back interested in baseball. Whatever happens, happens. That's how I'm looking at it.

Update: Billfer is less happy with other comments.

"At the end of the year, I'm going to say, 'Did we have a good season, a bad season, or a mediocre season?' I'm interested in a good season over the long haul, and that's what we're trying to accomplish here. We want to be competitive on a daily basis, and the rest of it will take care of itself."

Currently the Tigers rank 10th in home attendance and 12th in road attendance. Time to snap up those Tigers tickets!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 22, 2006
Glass Houses
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Craig Brown at Royals Authority pens an open letter to David Glass.

Did you happen to see any of the baseball this weekend at the Stadium? I ask because I know you spend much of your time in Bentonville, and rarely make it to Kansas City to actually watch the team you own in person. And since I took in the games, I just wanted to fill you in on some of the things you might have missed.

The Cardinals weekend is the best drawing series of the season, and for good reason. Everyone loves to have a rivalry, even if it’s as contrived as this one. But when your stadium is filled almost to capacity for three days and the crowds at those games are roughly 80% for the visiting team, then something is horribly wrong. Yeah, I know those Cardinal fans are the self-anointed best fans in all of baseball, but I saw almost as much red in the K on Saturday as you normally see at Arrowhead on a Chiefs game day. After the Pujols home run on Saturday, my brother commented to me that it was the loudest he had heard the stadium in almost 15 years. Does that embarrass you, Mr. Glass? It should.

Brown wants to see a full change over in the front office and scouting departments, including the departure of Glass' son from day-to-day operations of the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 21, 2006
The Name Game
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The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are facing a May 31 deadline to change the team's name. There's an interesting discussion in the article of how it used to be very common to change team nicknames, even from year to year. But this is incorrect:

When those changes are announced, probably after the All-Star break, the Rays will become the first major league team to change their name without moving to another city since the Houston Colt .45s became the Astros in 1965.

The Houston franchise was renamed after three seasons to coincide with the opening of the Astrodome and to link the ballclub with NASA's space program centered in the city.

Three other franchises moved to other cities and were renamed to better identify with the new locale. The Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers. The Washington Senators moved to Arlington, Texas, and became the Texas Rangers. The Montreal Expos moved to Washington, D.C., and became the Washington Nationals, which was a tip of the cap to Washington's place in baseball history.

The left off the other Washington franchise. The original American League Senators moved to Minnesota in 1961 and became the Twins.

Update: One commentor feels the article is correct. He makes the point that the three movements spoken of in the above paragraphs were after 1965. I'll buy that, but it's not clear from the way the article is worded. And lots of people don't realize there were two Senators franchises.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
May 17, 2006
Indecision
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Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke looks at how the indecision of Dave Littlefield hurt the Pirates over the years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2006
Tough Time for Dusty Baker
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Dusty Baker acknowledges his troubles:

''It's been harder lately because I lost Steve Howe, who was a friend, and another longtime friend of mine [died] a few days ago,'' Baker said. ''The hardest part is going home to yourself or going out and knowing people are going to bombard you with negatives. It's hard because some of it is justified.

''This has been a tough 17-game stretch, and I knew it would be. It started tough and went downhill.''

That's what happened to King Lear. Just when you think it can't get any worse, it does. If you're looking for negatives, here are the Cubs batting splits since 4/20, the day after Lee's injury. Apart from the right fielder, nobody is hitting. The most damning thing in my mind, however, is the lack of production from first base. Lee's replacements averages are .193 BA, .272 OBA, .229 slugging. I don't expect them to find another Derrek Lee, but it shouldn't be that difficult to find someone who can hit to play the position. Where is Chicago's Ryan Howard? Don't they have a slugger at AAA or AA who can hit .250 with a .450 slugging percentage? Take the best bat in your system, put him at first and see what happens. It has to be better than this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 15, 2006
Whom Do You Want to Fire?
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The Cub Reporter is taking comments on possible Cubs firings:

Dusty

Hendry

Everybody

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Asking the Right Questions
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The Cub Reporter has 15 questions for the next manager of the Cubs. They're pretty good ones for any manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2006
Leyland and the Pitching Staff
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Billfer is pleasantly surprised by how well Jim Leyland handles the Tigers pitching staff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2006
To Change or Not to Change?
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Royals Authority collects David Glass' quotes over the last two weeks to show how slow he is to change the front office. He also launches The Royals Incompetence Counter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 07, 2006
Torre Wins 1000 with Yankees
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The Yankees won their fifth straight game 8-5 over the Texas Rangers. For Joe Torre, it's his 1000th win as manager of the club. He joins Joe McCarthy, Casey Stengel and Miller Huggins as the Yankees managers with 1000 wins. He did it in just a little over 10 seasons, so he's averaging 98 wins a season with New York. Given the revolving door to the managers office before Joe arrived, it's a pretty amazing accomplishment.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 05, 2006
Glass Throwing Stones
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David Glass is finally upset at the Royals constant losing:

Glass' tone was distinctly different from what it had been two weeks earlier, when he said that before making changes he preferred to "give this thing a chance to play out."

Now, he says, "What's happened is just unacceptable. We're going to change some things to make it better."

Glass declined to specify what moves he is contemplating or when he might act. But there has been a public clamor for a change in general managers.

Allard Baird, who became GM of the small-market operation on June 17, 2000, has acknowledged his job could be on the line.

"I've got a bunch of balls in the air right now and I'm going to catch some of them," Glass said.

It's about time. With a number of GMs finding success in small markets this decade, Glass might have realized sooner than the Royals were doing things backward, wasting money on free agents before the talent was ready.

Of course, the fact that they let so many good players go, rather follow the Indians path of signing them long term when they're young reflects badly on Glass himself. A little more money a few years ago would be paying a big dividend now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Standing Pat
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Bill Conlin gets it right on Pat Gillick and Cole Hamels:

Hamels is in Triple A, waiting to get roughed up, so he can prove his manhood. Gee, Pat, I thought Cole had already done that when he covered a teammate's back in an ugly Clearwater parking lot dust-up. Cole, the designated driver, broke a finger on his pitching hand on some guy's skull. Of course, if the Phillies are really waiting to see how he responds to replicating a Vicente Padilla outing, we might not see him for years. He's thrown exactly three homers in three-plus truncated minor league seasons. Two came last year when his back was ailing.

The Phillis are only five games out of first. Maybe Hamels makes the difference. It would be sad to see the Phillies fall farther from first before they make this move.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 04, 2006
Which Shortstop?
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Edgar Renteria extended his hit streak to 19 games tonight. He's batting .367 with a .405 OBA. Hanley Ramirez drew two more walks so far tonight, and his OBA is up to .379, and he's hitting a respectable .287. Alex Gonzalez is 0 for 1 as the Red Sox play in the third inning. He's batting .178 with a poor .271 OBA.

I can't argue with the moves the Red Sox made this off-season. Ramirez helped bring them Beckett and Lowell; so far Mike's worked out better than Josh. Renteria brought them Crisp. A freak injury put him on the DL. But using hindsight, it looks like the Red Sox would have a better team if they:

  • Trade Renteria for Marte and let Marte play third.
  • Don't trade for Beckett and let Arroyo pitch.
  • Let Ramirez play short.
  • Pay Johnny Damon and let him play center.

They really didn't seem to have a good plan at shortstop, and now it's hurting them. It's one thing to have a weak hitting shortstop, it's another to have one that hits like a pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Orioles Negotiations
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Soccer Dad notes a reason the Orioles lose out on top free agents; they're not aggressive enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 03, 2006
Little Strengths and Weaknesses
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Jon Weisman offers an excellent critique of Grady Little's handling of Odalis Perez last night. Watching things unfold in the fifth inning was a little like watching game 7 of the 2003 ALCS again, as Lisa Gray pointed out in the comments here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:09 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 29, 2006
Weeding the Garden?
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Are we starting to see some anti-Gardenhire sentiment in the Twins Blogosphere?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 24, 2006
Braves New Owner
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It looks like the Braves are about to be transferred to a new owner:

JOHN Malones Liberty Life has swapped almost his entire 4% stake worth $3bn (1.68bn, E2.43bn) in American media giant Time Warner in return for ownership of the Atlanta Braves baseball team, some cash, and a 50% holding in American cable network Court TV. The deal is expected to be announced this week.

How much are they valuing the Braves? Court TV is supposed to be worth $1 billion, so that leaves $2.5 billion to be divided between cash and the Braves. Forbes values the Braves at .38 billion. So that leaves 2.1 billion is cash, which seems like more than "some." I wonder if the deal includes TBS and Turner South?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 21, 2006
Our Team, Our Time
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This is just too funny, except if you're a Mets fan.

Hat tip, MetsBlog.com.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Why you Should Love the Yankees
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The latest Forbes report on baseball's finances is out, and things are looking good. And the reason is the New York Yankees:

Revenue sharing also had a profound impact on operating income. The Yankees and the Red Sox lost $50 million and $18.5 million, respectively, before interest, income taxes and depreciation. By not using their subsidies to boost player payroll (which was the intent of revenue sharing), the Pittsburgh Pirates, Royals and Twins each earned more than $20 million.

But the league's reliance on Steinbrenner's Yankees goes far beyond revenue sharing. For example, a visit by the Yankees can increase a home team's ticket sales by as much as 25 percent. And the Yankees account for 27 percent of all league merchandise sales, the profits of which get shared equally throughout the league to the tune of more than $3 million per franchise. In effect, much of the league operates as subsidiaries of the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees are now worth $1 billion dollars. A nice return on a $20 million dollar investment in the early 1970's. It's about 12.2% a year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
April 20, 2006
Two or Three Left
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Thom Loverro gets conflicting information from sources on which groups are most likely to win the Washington Nationals:

But after rounding up the usual suspects in an exercise that has gone on way too long, the consensus is the selection is down to two groups. But there is no consensus over which two those are.

Some believe it is down to the Washington Baseball Club and the Lerner family-Stan Kasten merger. But many others think it is between the Lerner-Kasten group and Jeff Smulyan.

Since Lerner-Kasten is a finalist in both scenarios, it would appear to be the choice.

"Bud is very comfortable with the Lerners," said one baseball insider familiar with the process.

But he also is comfortable with Smulyan. And, perhaps just as important, his lieutenant, Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, considers Smulyan a close friend.

Loverro then sums up the political advantages and disadvantages of each group. It may come down to congressional power vs. district power.

Update: I forgot to include the link earlier.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Demanding Girardi
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Baseball Primer Newsblog notes Joe Girardi criticizing his team over mistakes and comments:

Thats pretty mild as team-ripping goes. Maybe a 0.5 on the Larry Bowa/Billy Martin/INSERT NAME HERE scale.

Which is the right level. He's upset, but in a constructive way. The "we're young and inexperienced" excuse isn't going to work with Joe, but he's not tearing down individuals either. I particularly like this part of his quote:

This was our first chance that we had to win a series and we should have won the series, Girardi said. And the way you make the playoffs is by winning series. You dont give series away.

Here he is with an awful team, and he's talking about making the playoffs. It's clear Joe wants to win, and he's going to drill that into the players, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 18, 2006
The Nice Side of Lucchino
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Larry Lucchino and George Steinbrenner are more alike than I imagined. They both do nice things for people with illnesses.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 16, 2006
Orioles Finances
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Peter Angelos claimed Friday that the Orioles lost $15 million in 2005, but Peter Schmuck is skeptical:

I don't know what the truth is, but I do know this. Many years ago, when Angelos came home the conquering hero after paying a record price to keep the Orioles under local ownership, he told everyone who would listen that the team was a public trust and that the club's finances would be an open book.

Too bad for him that we live in the age of the Internet search engine, because I was able to set the way-back machine to Nov. 18, 1993, and pull up this Angelos quote from The Washington Post:

"I expect to be quite open about the Orioles' finances," he said. "I want the media and the public to know the financial picture of the team. I want them to know what the profits are and what the expenses are. I think the more the public knows, the better."

Now, all we get is an angry pronouncement that the club is losing a fortune and absolutely nothing to back it up. Pardon the skepticism, but I seem to recall that the Orioles spent the late 1990s with one of the highest payrolls in baseball and Angelos claimed at the time that the team was breaking even.

Good for Peter to find those old quotes. We'll see how quickly Angelos keeps his word.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 15, 2006
Flaring Tempers
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Thomas Boswell discusses the blowup between Jose Vidro and Nationals president Tony Tavares being an outgrowth of management not knowing what will happen when a new owner enters the picture. Boswell ends with praise for Tavares, Robinson and Bowden:

Someday, all three, whether they stay or go when new ownership arrives, will be always be remembered here warmly for '05 -- the season that set the stage for a ballpark lease, for a $611 million construction project that may revive Southeast and for a $450 million sale price for a team that was worth barely half that much the day they dragged the ex-Expos to town.

To all of them, and to assistant GM Tony Siegle, the ego-free endlessly competent shrink to the whole franchise, there is a thanks due that far outweighs the disappointments and, at times, embarrassments of recent weeks. They all deserve better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 12, 2006
New Owners for the Nats?
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Tom Bridge at Metroblogging Washington picked up some information at the Washington Nationals opening day. It seems the ushers were fired from their DC jobs and hired directly by the Nationals:

This says a few things to me. It says that Selig and his cabal have settled on an owner, first of all. Secondly, that they're down to the brass tacks in terms of negotiations if they're talking about stadium personnel and not payroll, prices, and other large ticket items. Lastly, it means they're getting to the stage where they're involving people not typically into honoring non disclosure agreements. We're close to a deal here, folks, and we could see one possibly before the homestand is over, but I'm betting it will be closer to the All-Star Break before anyone in Major League Baseball shows DC any love.

It's my opinion that the owner was picked a long time ago. Baseball has to go through the process of making it look like there's bidding, but as the Boston transaction showed us, the people Bud likes the most are going to get the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 11, 2006
Fire Manuel
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff notes the Phillies bad start doesn't give fans a lot of hope for the season. He's calling for Charlie Manuel's head:

Time after time last season, I defended Manuel. While he was challenged to make good tactical decisions, he got players heads in the right place to play, a big improvement over the previous regime. And it showed, the team won 88 games and got closer to the playoffs than any Phillies team since 1993.

But this year, he has regressed as a manager. His tactical decisions are worse than last year and his lineup cards are perplexing.

The Phillies' problems are bigger than Charlie Manuel, firing him won't make them a World Series team, those issues are too numerous to name here. But if there is any hope of slavaging 2006, the time to make a change is now.

It looks like the Altobelli Effect wore off.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
People Person
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MetsBlog.com points out Willie Randolph's skills at motivating players, using Cliff Floyd as an example.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 10, 2006
Thinking About Thinking
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I wonder how many other mangers read Malcolm Gladwell?

Maddon never runs out of room for books. He reads books like Devil Rays outfielder Carl Crawford steals bases.

One of his recent favorites: "Blink," by Malcolm Gladwell, a book that examines thinking.

Maddon sounds like the kind of person who'd be interesting to know no matter what his profession.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 09, 2006
Nice Guys Finish Last?
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Jim Tracy received good reviews from his new charges early this year. Jim and his coaching staff were approachable. They didn't rant like former manager Lloyd McClendon. The Pirates pitchers liked the atmosphere Tracy created.

In Detroit, Jim Leyland wanted more of a killer instinct from his players. So far, the Tigers take no prisoners mode is working much better than the open and approachable Jim Tracy. The Tigers are undefeated. They've outscored their opponents 39 to 12 in five games. The pitching staff has a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio! On top of that, no unearned runs crossed plate yet.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have an OBA that's equal to their opponents batting average! (.328) Their opponents are getting on base at a .424 clip, so those great preseason camps did nothing to improve the control of their pitchers. They've been outscored, however, by just ten runs, four of them unearned. They're in every game, having lost three times by one run and never by more than three. They need a day when the offense and pitching are good together.

Update: I had forgotten that Lloyd McClendon is now a coach for Jim Leyland. The Tiger broadcast just reminded me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 07, 2006
Building the Phillies
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Paul Hagen takes an in-depth look at how the Phillies were built, and the mistakes made along the way.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 05, 2006
Lineup Art
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FishStripes notes that Gary Tuck makes out the Marlins lineup cards in calligraphy. The cards are very popular among the players. Maybe they can auction some off to fans!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 03, 2006
Braves in Japan
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John Klima at SABRScouts sends along this article about the Atlanta Braves scouting for amateur talent in Japan. Unfortunately, it's for the wrong reasons:

While many teams have tapped the Japanese major leagues to find finished products, the Braves have been hustling to find amateur players to develop in their own farm system. In an era when power will often be questioned, there is no way to question players who play the game the way it was designed.

Listen to Dayton Moore, Atlanta's director of player personnel, and it's evident why the Braves were so eager to solidify their foothold in Japan.

"These players are technicians," Moore said from Kissimmee, Fla., this week. "Do they have the power, the strength, that you see in the athletes in the States and other countries? No. Baseball is a game of fine motor skills. Asian players possess that. These are very good fielders, accurate throwers, hand-eye coordination guys, hit-and-run guys. They execute and that's how the Atlanta Braves win baseball games."

Really? It had nothing to do with Chipper, Marcus and Andruw getting on base and hitting for power? Secondly, isn't the part about strength a bit racist? I saw nothing in the WBC that indicated that the Japanese players didn't have power or strength. Klima then makes this incorrect observation:

If the World Baseball Classic taught us anything, it's that the best player in the world is Ichiro Suzuki, because there is no other player who can beat you in as many ways as he can. Other hitters may produce greater home run numbers, but Ichiro can still drive the ball and beat you with an extra-base hit. And good luck finding a power hitter who also can beat you by making contact, can beat you with a bunt, can beat you by running the bases, can beat you with his arm, can beat you with his glove.

Sorry, Barry Bonds standing like a statue in left field is a better player than Ichiro. Bonds doesn't need to hit behind the runner because he'll either score him from first with a homer or walk to move him to second, rather than grounding out swinging at a bad pitch. And if you don't like Barry, there's Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Derrek Lee and Miguel Tejada, and that's just scratching the surface.

There is baseball talent in Japan. There are power hitters who swing and miss. There are contact hitters and speedsters who beat out infield hits. There are glove men who don't contribute offensively. Just like everywhere else. There are also great players like Ichiro, not because Japan does anything special training their players, but because he possesses great talent for the game.

I'm glad the Braves are in Japan scouting talent. More teams need to start looking for amateurs there. But there's no magic over there. It's just untapped talent, and the team that gets the best of that talent first is going to have an advantage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
March 28, 2006
Making Up Their Minds
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MetsBlog.com notes the contradictions in stories about the makeup of the Mets roster. In fact, it appears to be the case that the Mets aren't going to decide until the last minute who is going north.


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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 27, 2006
Who Owns Giradi's Work?
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Brian MacMillan at Off the Facade raises an interesting question about Joe Girardi's scouting reports; who owns them? Girardi compiled them with the Yankees, so shouldn't New York own those books? Usually, when you do work for a company, your work belongs to that company.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
March 18, 2006
What to do With Soriano?
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Now that the Dominican Republic is out of the Classic, the Nationals get to make a decision about Soriano. With the injury to Guzman, the idea of moving Soriano to shortstop makes more and more sense. Yes, he's going to be terrible defensively, but he's going to hit a lot better than the Nationals other options.

Another injury that night inpact this decision is the Mets injury to Kaz Matsui. Might the New Yorkers and Washingtonians find a swap to send Soriano back to New York?


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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
March 15, 2006
Mora Morass
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Peter Schmuck comes down on the side of Melvin Mora in his contract negotiations with the Baltimore Orioles:

Technically, Mora is signed for the 2006 season, but everybody knows the chances of a pending free agent's remaining with the same team after playing out the final year of his contract are pretty slim. Just ask new Toronto Blue Jays closer B.J. Ryan - or New York Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina if you want to pull out the most glaring example in Orioles history.

That's why the Orioles need to end this staredown, even if it means they have to blink first.

Mora wants to stay in Baltimore, and he has done everything in his power - both on and off the field - to make the case that he is the kind of throwback player and organizational asset the Orioles cannot afford to lose.

I disagree. Mora is indeed an asset to the community, but he just turned 34 years old. In his seven year major league career, he's had two outstanding seasons, and last year he fell back to just good. The fact is the $10 million a year Mora is looking to earn is better spent elsewhere. The Orioles, instead of trying to find a place where both are happy, should tell Melvin to go try the free agent market and spend the year finding someone young to replace the third baseman.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 14, 2006
They're Still the Nationals
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The Nationals settled their trademark lawsuit. Of course, a new owner my decide to change the name anyway.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rewarding Francona
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The Red Sox extended Terry Francona's contract through the 2008 season:

The Red Sox gave Francona a bonus for 2006; his salary in 2007 and 2008 will be $1.65 million and $1.85 million, respectively, ESPN's Peter Gammons reported.

Francona's done a good job of both managing the clubhouse and the game. He's managed to let Manny be Manny without it causing rancour among the batters who do run out every ball. From what I've read and heard, he seems to use stats intelligently and effectively. Nice to see the Red Sox recognize his effectiveness.


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Posted by StatsGuru at 02:33 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Start Saving Your Pennies
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Ivy Chat has an Arte Johnson moment reading stock tips. It seems the fifth biggest investor in the Tribune Corporation thinks the company should sell the Cubs and Food Network. Can you imagine the Cubs with an owner that really cared about winning?

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 13, 2006
Humor Me
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Sam Perlozzo replaced the joke that was the Orioles second half of 2005 with a daily funny:

Newcomers Kevin Millar and LaTroy Hawkins have stepped up. Batting practice pitcher Orlando Gomez made the most of his turn. And pitcher Bruce Chen and bullpen coach Rick Dempsey have been mainstays.

Their only responsibility in delivering the Joke of the Day has been to get people to laugh - at any cost.

"It just kind of happened one day and I said, 'You know what? I like this, we're going to keep doing it,'" Perlozzo said. "When you talk about chemistry on our ballclub, the fact that somebody can stand up in front of a bunch of people, that's another leader. We're bringing guys up that aren't afraid to do that. It's a big roar of a laugh before you walk out of the door. I don't know if it is going to make you win any games, but it is fun. The game is supposed to be fun."

Sam also gained the respect that Mazzilli lost early:

Several of the Orioles credited Perlozzo for creating a loose environment. This spring, he has leveled few rules - cell phones need to be off for team meetings, tardiness earns a fine - but enforced them to the violators. If players are late for meetings without notifying a team official, they aren't allowed to enter the clubhouse until the meeting is over.

Several players said that it was hard to take certain rules seriously, especially after manager Lee Mazzilli's cell phone went off - to the theme song of The Godfather - during a meeting two days after he established the rule punishing cell phone violators.

"He's treating us like adults, but you screw up, you're going to face the consequences," Gibbons said.

Perlozzo's off to a good start managing the people. If he can manage them to wins as well, the laughter will be even heartier.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Trading Spaces
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Jim Brockman notices how much the Tigers management pulled from the Pirates:

Jim Leyland wore his for 11 years as manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates (1986-96). Gene Lamont skippered the Pirates the following four years - after two stints over seven seasons as Leyland's third base coach.

Then came Lloyd McClendon. Before managing the Pirates the past five seasons, he played for four years in Pittsburgh and was Lamont's hitting instructor.

When the Pirates paid a recent spring training visit to Joker Marchant Stadium, the past 20 years of Pittsburgh's managerial history were on the other team with Leyland as the new manager of the Detroit Tigers and Lamont (third base coach) and McClendon (bullpen coach) rejoining him.

But we're only getting warmed up with ex-Pirates in Detroit's new regime.

There's former Pirates star center fielder Andy Van Slyke (1987-94), the new first base coach for the Tigers. Ex-Pirates catcher Don Slaught (1990-95) is Detroit's new hitting instructor, and former shortstop Rafael Belliard (1984-90) is the infield coach.

Ladies and gentlemen, the brand new Detroit Tigers are the old Pittsburgh Pirates.

Given the Pirates lack of sucess over the last decade, I'm not sure that's a good thing.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
March 10, 2006
Perpetual Peralta
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In the early 1990's, the Cleveland Indians put together a good young team and signed most of them to long term contracts. This gave the organization the stability and price protection to dominate the Central Division of the AL. It looks like they're at it again.

Jhonny Peralta, who hit 24 homers last season and helped the Cleveland Indians contend in the AL, signed a contract extension that could keep the shortstop with the team through the 2011 season.

The Indians said Friday the 23-year-old player signed a five-year contract through the 2010 season with a club option for the 2011 season.

"Adding Jhonny Peralta to the current group of players already under contract solidifies a strong core of position players that will help to ensure a championship future," general manager Mark Shapiro said.

The article doesn't mention money, but the Indians don't need to worry about arbitration, and they will control Peralta through his peak seasons.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ballpark Food
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It sounds like a trip to see the Gateway Grizzlies is in order.


We kid you not. The Gateway Grizzlies of the Frontier League promised to create "Baseball's Best Burger" in time for the team's opener in late May. And they appear to have succeeded.

The ballpark sandwich will include a hamburger topped with sharp cheddar cheese and two slices of bacon -- all between a "bun" of Krispy Kreme Original Glazed donuts.

Two of my favorite foods!

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Who's Responsible?
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Marcus Hayes describes how sloppy play by the Phillies is getting to Charlie Manuel:

He held a hat-waving, gesticulating meeting before yesterday's pregame practice, which preceded an 8-3 loss to the Yankees.

"I usually don't have meetings unless I get kind of upset," Manuel said. "I want us to play better."

His team was 5-2 in the Grapefruit League, but it was a messy 5-2; as messy as the team's drills have been.

"We were having trouble running the bases. We were having trouble throwing the ball. We were having trouble executing in general," Manuel said.

He stressed sharp play in his team meeting that opened spring training 2 weeks ago. His words were not heeded, though he continued to harp on that theme with his players and in the press.

There's no criticism of Manuel in the article, but it's certainly doesn't make Manuel appear to be much of a leader. Two and a half weeks into camp and your team is still not executing basic plays correctly? It seems they're not responding to coaching. Charlie Manuel should be very worried about his job right now. If this team gets off to a slow start, stories like this put the blame at the feet of the manager.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
New Coach
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Leo Mazzone and his replacement, Roger McDowell received much attention over the winter, but the Arizona Diamondbacks hired a new pitching coach also. Bryan Price is getting rave reviews:

All of them have said Price has already helped them in one way or another, from isolating a problem with their mechanics to just being a positive influence and making sure they stay prepared and focused.

"He just makes you feel important," Halsey said. "It doesn't take long for you to realize that his goals are the same as your goals. As much as we want to become better pitchers, he's trying to make us better pitchers.

"That's what you want, somebody who's there to diagnose anything that might be going wrong, a guy that wants to help you improve yourself because that only helps the entire team."

We'll wait to see if it translates to better performance.

Update: Lookout Landing talks about Seattle's new coach, Rafael Chaves fixing Dave Burba's mechanics. It makes you wonder if Price is really that good.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 09, 2006
Six More Months of Bowden
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Jim Bowden's received a contract extension today, making him the GM of the Nationals through the end of the season. It's likely bad news for two reasons:

  1. He's still the GM of the Nationals. This is the guy who thought trading for Soriano was a good deal.
  2. It may mean that a new owner won't be in place by the end of April, when Bowden's contract was set to expire

I suppose it's just MLB rewarding Jim for doing a thankless job. This way, even if the new owner fires Bowden, he still gets paid.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 04:14 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
March 06, 2006
Charting Salaries
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Andrew Koch points to a terrific tool for comparing the salaries of AL teams.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 05, 2006
Randolph Watch
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Bob Sikes points out that the honeymoon is over between Willie Randolph and the press.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
We Will Fong
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I'm not impressed with Zack Duke's journal so far, but he does have a nice take on the Pirates new motto today.

I've got this new T-shirt and hat in my locker with the 2006 slogan, 'We Will,' on them. So, the obvious question is, 'We Will what?' Well, I have the answer: the little things -- those are what we will do. Jim Tracy is always saying the little things matter to clubs that win championships, so we will do those little things, I guess, or we won't ... play. It's all a matter of what you will -- if you will.

I have this personal slogan: "DOMINATE!" So, I guess I will dominate. I'll try, at least.

One of our favorite players from the 13th Floor Strat-o-Matic league was Rob Wilfong. Every time he came up to bat, you could say with certainty that he was going to fong. If the Pirates offense will fong this season, Zack Duke will have an easier time dominating. :-)

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 04, 2006
Yankees Can't Spell
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The Yankees apologized to fans today because their stars are away at the World Baseball Classic.

"The New York Yankess," the sign went on, misspelling the team's name, "did not vote to support this event. Any comments you have regarding the World Baseball Classic should be directed to the commissioner of Major League Baseball or the Major League Baseball Players Association."

That has to make Bud happy.

Carl Pavano made some progress today, pitching off the mound for the first time since last August. He threw 30 pitches. Carl is competing for one of three slots at the back of the Yankees rotation with Wright, Chacon, Wang and Small.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 03, 2006
National Disaster
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Thomas Boswell notes the difference between spring training this year and last year for the Washington Nationals:

You'd have to be insensate as a commissioner to miss the point. How many of the empty seats here Thursday afternoon were a mirror image of the vacuum in the hearts of first-year Nats fans. After a horrid offseason of bad-faith betrayal by baseball's brass and the District's politicians, they feel like they've been kicked in the guts. Last spring, fans flew down from Washington to hang over the fence to talk to pitchers in the bullpen. Chad Cordero called them "awesome" that day, then sprinted into the game and fanned the side. This week, no fans have chatted up the bullpen. Against the Koreans, the 47-save Cordero, the symbol of the Nats' thrilling first season, gave up four runs in one-third of an inning. "It was ugly," said one Nats official.

It's sad. Instead of having a new owner to build on an over-achieving team, MLB is riding the former Expos into the ground again. One wonders if the attendance at RFK this season will make it look like Stade Olympique.

And that could be a problem for the owners of the team:

And, if disillusionment grows, what will happen to the value of a franchise that drew 2.73 million fans last season? Now, it's worth $450 million to eight different bidders, all lined up begging. What will it be worth, and who will still want it, if baseball's stubborn brass and D.C.'s feuding council manage to contaminate Washington's nascent baseball love affair?

There is an easy solution, which is to sell to buyer who is willing to help build the stadium. That doesn't fit in Selig's plans to blackmail other cities into constructing new buildings however, so the Washington fans suffer.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
March 02, 2006
Here Come the Judge
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Anaheim takes it's case against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to Orange County judge Peter Polos. This is not an appeal of the case just lost; they're asking for an injunction against the team. I'm not sure why you can lose a court case and then ask a judge to intervene, but I'm not a lawyer.


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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2006
Tribe Terms
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According to this report on MLB.com, the Cleveland Indians are working on a long term contract with Jhonny Peralta.

Rego would not get into specifics as far as the number of years or the figures being discussed.

"It would be right in the neighborhood of what the Indians have historically done in the past, as far as multitude of years," he said. "If you look at the C.C. Sabathia deal, the Victor Martinez deal and the Travis Hafner deal, it's within the realm and within the protocol of those three."

In April of 2005, Sabathia was signed to a two-year contract extension through 2008, Hafner was signed to a three-year deal with an option for '08 and Martinez was signed to a five-year deal with an option for 2010.

By locking up their young talent with long-term contracts, the Indians are following the same blueprint that helped them put together two World Series teams in the 1990s.

I thought that was a great strategy back then, and it's a great one now. You avoid arbitration with your young players, saving both the monetary and emotional costs of that process. You also insulate yourself against salary inflation, making these players tradeable down the road. I'm still amazed that more clubs don't follow this model.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 25, 2006
We Don't Need No Extra Players
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The Kansas City Royals only need four pitchers for the first couple of weeks of the season, but Bell doesn't like having an extra position players around:

The tough thing in the American League, he said, is you dont use a lot of guys on your bench. So guys get (ticked). You dont want guys just sitting around.

A projected four-man bench includes backup catcher Paul Bako, first baseman/DH Matt Stairs, a utility infielder (Esteban German or Joe McEwing) and a backup outfielder (Chip Ambres, Aaron Guiel or Kerry Robinson).

The Royals starting nine is just so talented that Bell would never want to:

  • Platoon two players.
  • Burn a pinch-hitter to get the platoon advantage.
  • Make a defensive replacement for one of the old players signed this winter.
  • Carry three catchers for more flexibility.
  • Pinch run in a one-run situation.

Nothing of use there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
February 22, 2006
Pole Position
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Joe Girardi is really showing his players how it's done:

With temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday, Marlins pitchers lined up for one of the most grueling drills of spring training: "running poles," a series of 14 sprints across the outfield grass from foul pole to foul pole.

That's when left-hander Scott Olsen looked over at manager Joe Girardi and said with a sneer, "Why don't you run with us?"

To the surprise of Olsen and his teammates, Girardi replied: "All right."

In the clubhouse a few minutes later, Olsen wrapped a cold towel around his head and marveled at how Girardi, 41, outpaced many players.

"He ran, like, 12 poles and he wasn't even fazed," Olsen, 22, said. "He might have run more than 14. I ran my 14 and got out."

It's a great incentive for the players to be out run by the manager. Especially one who is a former catcher. I like this idea, also:

Girardi, who lifts weights alongside his players in the training room, said he'll probably put on some catcher's gear in the coming days to get a closer look at some of his pitchers.

That's upclose and personal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:35 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
February 21, 2006
Quiet Coaching
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Eric Wedge's approach to managing is compared favorably to Walter Alston in this AP article. This, however, reminded me of another coach:

"When you have to manage 25 guys you have to be on the same page," Indians reliever Rafael Betancourt said.

"Eric is always telling us that we have to respect each one in the room. He is a quiet person, one who doesn't talk too much. But, when he does, you listen."

That reminds me of oarsmen describing Harvard Crew coach Harry Parker. Harry seldom talks. When he does, however, it's such a rare event that everyone pays rapt attention. It's worked very well for Harvard crew over the years, and it looks like it's working for Cleveland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 20, 2006
Sniffing Under Stones
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The Yankees are going aggressively after other teams waived pitchers in hope of finding the next Aaron Small. This strategy highlights the changes in the front office this year:

Of course, as Cashman noted, when a pitcher who'd been as highly rated as Rasner suddenly shows up on the waiver wire, your first inclination is to wonder what's wrong with him. You also wonder why so many teams ahead of the Yankees in waiver wire pickings passed on him.

"This time of year, most of the rosters are full," the GM explained, "and because a lot of GMs are on vacation or have already set their rosters, it's easy to miss a guy. We're just trying to be aggressive."

"These are not scrap heap guys we're bringing in here," insisted Michael. "They're better than that and they're not just guys we signed as a favor to the agents. They're here because we wanted them."

Still, under the old "split world" order with the Yankees, Tampa invariably nixed the GM's attempts to bring in other organizations' pitching rejects. All the minor league signings had to go through Tampa and, in effect, Cashman didn't have control of the 40-man roster. It was no small thing, and just one of the conditions Cashman set down before agreeing to come back as GM last November.

It's a low risk, high reward strategy. It costs the Yankees very little money to look at these pitchers. If they find someone with a strength the team needs, they can try to develop that in the minors. Most of the time it won't work, but if you can find a gem like Small once in a while, it's probably worth it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
February 19, 2006
Baker's Flaws
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Ivy Chat details the things Dusty Baker can't do.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 17, 2006
A Week on the Job
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LargeBill reflects on Wayne Krivsky's first week on the job. He's not as unhappy with the Timo Perez signing as Aaron Gleeman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Henry on Taxes
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John Henry comes out against high luxury taxes:

Baseball has to address the disincentives created by large scale transfers of revenue from successful clubs to less successful clubs, Henry said. At high enough tax levels the incentive is to invest somewhere other than in baseball. The disincentives are just as powerful for the lower revenue clubs as for the higher revenue clubs. The Red Sox have taken an aggressive stance in investing in all aspects of the franchise. But one has to wonder how many teams will do so when the financial risks often outweigh the potential financial benefits. The commissioner and the union have radically altered the game of baseball for the better over the last few years by transferring enormous amounts of dollars. But as with all taxes, there is a point at which taxation discourages effort and investment to the point that baseball clubs one by one come to the same, unfortunate conclusion. Looking ahead the Red Sox have to take it on faith that investment in baseball on behalf of our constituency -- the fans -- will make sense. But we cannot ignore the fact that it is their hard-earned dollars we are sending to other cities.

I'm impressed on two levels. First, he sounds like Arthur Laffer. Second, Henry is the owner of the Red Sox because he's Bud's man. Revenue sharing is Bud's big baby. Even though Henry goes out of his way to praise Selig in the article, he clearly doesn't like throwing money at the Blue Jays. He clearly wants a change in the next agreement. It's great to finally see some difference of opinion between the owners and the commissioner, especially from the inner circle.

Selig should listen to the Red Sox owner. Henry doesn't strike me as a person who wants to do away with the concept of revenue sharing. He knows it helps the game. Henry might develop a more competitive system that rewards success rather than failure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
February 16, 2006
National Problems
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The AP talks with Washington team president Tony Tavares about his to do list:

"We've got to get the accounting department here," team president Tony Tavares said Thursday. "We've had too many problems with getting bills paid, bills getting paid late, and what got lost in the mail between Montreal and here."

Hiring number crunchers to work in the RFK Stadium offices is one of about 20 things on Tavares' to-do list, which fits onto one page of a white legal pad. In many ways, his list is as important as any lineup manager Frank Robinson will make during spring training, which starts for the Nationals when pitchers and catchers report Saturday to Space Coast Stadium in Viera, Fla.

A year ago, Tavares' list became a well-known chronicle of the enormous task of relocating a major league franchise -- it was 90 items long at one point -- and this year's list, while shorter, has essentially the same underlying theme: Nothing is permanent with the Nationals, a team still in flux and at the mercy of haggling between baseball officials and politicians.

He also speaks about the problems the stadium negotiations are causing:

"We pretty much go with the flow," Tavares said. "Even if everything moves right, my guess is that we don't have a firm deal with the city in place until the end of March, beginning of April. It'll take 60 to 90 days to bring the sale to closure. My guess is the All-Star break [for a new owner], and that's a best-case scenario. And a new owner's not going to come in here at the All-Star break and say, 'OK, I want that GM out of here."

Tavares' uncertain future hasn't kept him from being active in the stadium lease talks. Council chair Linda Cropp recently said the city may "not be able to do a Cadillac stadium, but we could do a Buick." Tavares is concerned the council's cost-cutting will strip the ballpark even further.

"I'm not going to say it's substandard right now, but I think if we go much further it'll be substandard," Tavares said.

Sell the team and let the new owner resolve the stadium issue. A partnership between the owner and city is going to result in the best built facility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 15, 2006
The Young Mazzone
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The Balitmore Sun offers a biography of Leo Mazzone's youth in Maryland. I love the story about wrestling a nun:

"All of us were crazy about sports, but baseball consumed everything Leo did," Ord said. "Others had more natural talent, but Leo worked harder. He was feisty too; he always stood up for himself."

On one occasion, Mazzone tangled with his eighth-grade teacher. Her name was Sister Veronica Marie, and she wielded the stingingest steel ruler at St. Peter's.

"She caught Leo goofing off in class," said Ord, who witnessed the incident. "When she went to hit him [with her ruler], he wrestled her to the floor."

Aghast, students gathered round the pair.

"Sister Veronica Marie had her habit on," Ord said. "We were kind of hoping Leo would knock that thing off her head so we could see what was under it."

From the article it's clear where Leo's philosophy of always throwing comes from:

"Leo liked to walk around the neighborhood throwing rocks," his mother said. "He'd get right out here on Rock Street -- the name matched him very well -- and just start pitching rocks. He was 8 or so. He didn't care where the rocks went."

Windows took a beating. Too often, Tony Mazzone came home from his job at the mill in nearby Luke to find busted glass on a neighbor's lawn and his son's left arm to blame.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 14, 2006
Name War Continues
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The City of Anaheim continues the effort to remove Los Angeles from the name of the Angels:

Attorney Michael Rubin said Monday the city's lawyers would make the request at a March 2 hearing before Superior Court Judge Peter Poulos.

Rubin said city officials believe they have a good chance of prevailing based on Poulos' previous rulings concerning language in a stadium lease agreement signed by officials with The Walt Disney Co. when it owned the team. The lease required that the word Anaheim be included in the name.

I guess I don't understand the law. Didn't the city just lose a trial? Didn't a jury of their peers say everything's okay? Isn't that supposed to be the end of things? As far as I can tell, this isn't an appeal. Would someone with some legal knowledge please fill us in on why Anaheim can make this plea?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:30 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 13, 2006
Rays on the Right Track
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Management by Baseball likes what he's seeing from the Devil Rays new ownership:

Most turnaround efforts might have gotten that right. But it's the universally powerful and rarely-used supercharge technique, one of my own favorites, that I suspect will make the most difference in their effort to gain respectability.

According to a story by Alexis Muellner in the Tampa Bay Business Journal, executive management are finding out all the turnaround knowledge stored in the heads of the Devil Ray line staff.

The new owners are listening to long time employees who never before had a voice. They're generating ideas, ways to improve the organization. With luck, some of them will be good ones.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 12, 2006
Tribe Flexibility
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Sheldon Ocker notes an extra card up Indians GM Mark Shapiro's sleeve:

Keep in mind that Shapiro still has cash to spend, possibly as much as $10 million. That means he can make adjustments to the roster during spring training or any time before the July 31 trading deadline.

In the recent past, the GM didn't have this kind of flexibility. He does now, and he might need it.

With Cleveland in contention the last two seasons, I expected a deadline deal from the Tribe. It didn't happen. Now, however, if a club wants to dump a big contract, or get rid of a potential free agent, Cleveland can take on the salary for half a season. That certainly should make a deal easier to complete.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 11, 2006
Rickey and the Mets
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Bob Sikes comments on what Rickey Henderson does for the Mets. He also see Rickey possibly putting on the Mets uniform at some point:

But getting back to Henderson, what may materialize is a silent commitment from Minaya to him that if he's unable to find the employment he's looking for, a player-coach role might be in the cards in Tidewater. And then the potential is there for Randolph and Minaya to summon this legend should need arise.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
February 10, 2006
Rickey Returns
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Rickey Henderson will be with the Mets in Spring Training as an instructor. It looks like his prize pupil will be Jose Reyes:

Omar Minaya, the Mets general manager, sat next to Henderson during a game of the 2002 World Series and brought up the topic of instructing young players. Dave Stewart, Henderson's former Oakland teammate, let Minaya know during the offseason that Henderson was ready.

Minaya mentioned Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran as players who will work with Henderson, learning tips on baserunning and getting on base.

"In my opinion, Rickey is the best leadoff hitter in the history of the game," Minaya said.

I agree with that last statement, but Willie Randolph was also an excellent leadoff man. I'm not sure what Rickey can teach Reyes that Willie can't. Maybe Jose will start referring to himself in the third person.

Still, it's great to see Rickey back at the major league level. From what I've heard of Henderson's time in the independent leagues, his teammates loved him. My guess is he's been doing a lot of coaching just there in an unofficial capacity. You might as well learn from the best.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
February 09, 2006
I Can Still Use LAnanheim!
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The jury decided in favor of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, letting the team keep the lengthy name as it's official moniker. They'll be the LAnaheim Angels forever more on this site.

There's a discussion starting at the OCRegister if you'd like to voice your opinion of the verdict.

Frankly, I'm surprised. I thought the Angels had a good case. It looks like the jury respected the letter of the agreement, rather than the intent.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
It's Up to the Jury
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The Angels city name is now in the hands of a jury. I'm still pulling for LAnaheim.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 08, 2006
No Yankees, Please
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WasWatching smells a rat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
It's Krivsky
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The Dayton Daily News now reports that Wayne Krivsky is the new Reds general manager. I guess the sources for this morning's story weren't very reliable.

Krivsky has served as Minnesota general manager Terry Ryan's right-hand man in a similar market with a similar payroll. He has been assistant GM since Nov. 30, 1998, and assisted Ryan in negotiating contracts for major-league players, including salary-arbitration cases.

He helped negotiate multi-year contracts in Minnesota for Torii Hunter, Joe Mays, Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones and Shannon Stewart. He also worked on pitcher Brad Radke's first multi-year deal.

Krivsky has been in baseball operations for 30 years and also serves as a Major League Scout for the Twins.

Congratulations to Mr. Krivsky!

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:43 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Dissected
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Jeff Passan details the arbitration hearing process:

There are seldom any players who go in there and it doesnt affect them in some way, Baird said. Some positive. Some negative. Some where they question their abilities. The one thing I remember about Carlos Beltran was as soon as he came to spring training, he said to me, These are the things Im going to be better at this season. They were all the things we discussed in arbitration.

Now, they know that kind of stuff. But the way its presented in an arbitration hearing, you have no choice but hearing it. Because its not said nicely. Its not said with much tact. Its highlighted with colors and reiterated with facts.

Its dissected to the degree that youre surprised youre even allowed to wear a glove.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
We've Got the Beattie
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The Dayton Daily News connects the dots from various sources and predicts Jim Beattie as the new Red general manager.

Nine candidates were interviewed and several have been told they wouldn't get the job, including interim GM Brad Kullman, Reds special advisor Leland Maddox and Philadelphia assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle.

It would not be surprising.

Beattie was the first person new owner Bob Castellini hired, naming him a special advisor the same day he officially took over as the team's CEO. And he immediately named him as a candidate for the GM's chair.

In addition, Castellini has told friends he preferred a person who had been a general manager. Only Beattie and Atlanta assistant general manager Frank Wren have GM experience among the candidates.

Beattie did a good job with very scarce resources in Montreal. He didn't do a good job with greater resources in Baltimore, however. How much of that was Jim and how much was Angelos I'll leave to the commenters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 07, 2006
Unearned Extensions?
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Mike Carminati wonders why the Rockies management team received contract extensions:

This is a team that has witnessed one winning season in the last eight and that hasn't made the playoffs in the last ten. They have seen their attendance slip from first in the NL in their first 7 seasons (and as high as 4.5 M in their inaugural season) to fourteenth in the 16-team NL last year with their first attendance mark under two million for a season.

O'Dowd has held his job over six seasons and has job for over six seasons and has registered one season (barely) over .500 and that was over five years ago (82-80 in 2000) and has never had a team finish higher than fourth in a five team division. Since O'Dowd took over no Rockie team has finished within 15 games of first and his teams have finished on average 21 games out. And it should be mentioned that the Rockies fell from first in attendance in his first full season as GM and have been falling steadily since.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:36 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Reds Candidates
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The Reds search for GM candidates is over. Hal McCoy lists the nine candidates.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 06, 2006
Extending the Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies signed their two managers to one-year extensions, giving manager Clint Hurdle and GM Dan O'Dowd at least another year to turn their youth movement into winners.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Future GMs
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Bob Sikes remembers the summer of 1980 and two ballplayers who became fast friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
I Hope You Have Children Just Like You!
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A few years ago, then Cubs catcher Joe Girardi was complaining about a Marlins celebration after a walk-off home run. John Boles then put the classic curse on Girardi:

To which Boles replied: ``Anybody who criticizes that, well forgive me for feeling good about ourselves for six seconds after a walk-off victory. Joe Girardi has been playing for the world champion Yankees and, without having been in our shoes, he might want to hold off on criticism.''

Boles went on to say that he hoped Girardi never had to endure the misery that the Marlins had gone through.

Of course, Girardi gets to manage a team that's been stripped to the bone. The new manager is looking to win, however.

''It's amazing,'' Girardi said. 'A lot of people are like, `Good luck, but I can't believe what they did to your club.' And I'm thinking, what a great opportunity. I have an opportunity to build a club, watch them grow and win.

Maybe Joe can prove Ozzie Guillen wrong. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 03, 2006
Back From Dinner
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I'm back from the UConn Baseball Banquet and had a wonderful time with Randy Sabia and his crew. We had great seats, as you can see from this picture of Ben Cherington (my phone does not have a great camera).

Ben Cherington at UConn Baseball Banquet

Walt Dropo and Charles Nagy were both honored with distinguished alumni awards. Dropo's family accepted on his behalf, and Nagy flew in from California with his family. You could tell Nagy was very moved by the recognition.

Brian Cashman and Ben Cherington each made a short speech, Brian on the state of the Yankees, Ben more on playing college ball. Cherington refered to Theo as "The Gorilla" during his comments. He also said that the Red Sox front office has a lot of respect for the Yankees front office and that the competition between the two "makes us better."

The two then sat together on stage and took questions from the audience. I was impressed by the intelligence of both men. Cashman was very forthcoming in answering all questions, whether it was about working with Steinbrenner or how the lack of a farm system limited their moves this off season.

The two were asked about big versus small markets. Cashman pointed out that have resources allows a team to have many more choices in putting a team together, but it also gives you more chances to make a mistake. Cherington added that it's nice working for a team with resources, but sometimes he thinks working in the cocoon of a small market would have benefits also.

Cashman was asked about how he manages to work with Steinbrenner, and he gave what I thought was a very interesting answer. The people who came before him all had resumes. Each one came into the job with the idea that things would be different for them. Cashman never worked for another organization. He has not point of comparison with Steinbrenner, so he didn't have expectations that things would be different.

He told a story about Woody Woodward. Steinbrenner forced Woody to trade Joe Niekro to the Twins, and the next week Niekro shut out the Yankees for seven innings. Cashman was sitting with Woodward, listening to Steinbrenner say that Woody had to take responsibility for the deal. Cashman said he thought to himself, "I never want to be GM of the Yankees."

Cashman praised the Red Sox management team for the job they did rebuilding the farm system. Cashman couldn't go the trade route to fix the Yankees because he doesn't have the depth of talent in the minors the Red Sox do. He went with free agency because that was the one avenue open to him. He wants to get the Yankees to the point where they are continually producing young talent.

Cherington was asked why the Red Sox didn't re-sign Pedro Martinez last season. I loved his answer. The organization never wants to fall in love with a group of players. He pointed out that the Red Sox made Pedro a good offer, but due to circumstances the Met valued Pedro more than Boston. Management is looking four or five years down the road when they decide how much to offer a free agent.

All in all, an enjoyable evening. Good food, good friends, good conversation and good information.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hershiser Takes a Hike
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Orel Hershier didn't last long at his new job in the Rangers front office. He resigned yesterday, with no comment from him or the team. Hershiser had some success in the second year of coaching, as the pitching staff posted an ERA below 5.00 for the first time since 1997 and contended for the AL West title. Last year, however, the team's ERA rose again, and the Rangers chances for an AL West title sunk.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
February 02, 2006
Pringle Punched
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The mayor of Anaheim testified today to wrap up the city's case against the Angels:

The mayor of the city of Anaheim said when he returned from a long New Year's Day weekend last year he was shocked to learn that Angels owner Arte Moreno had changed the team's name.

Mayor Curt Pringle said he had a friendly discussion with Moreno five days before, at which both men agreed they would continue to discuss a possible name change. Nothing was finalized at that meeting, Pringle testified Wednesday.

"It was a punch in the stomach," he said.

I don't know which side is going to win this case, but Arte Morneo lost stature with the people of Anaheim during this trial.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leo Backlash?
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As Roger McDowell takes over the Braves pitching staff, do I detect a little anti-Mazzone sentiment?

Hudson said McDowell made a strong impression.

"Everybody knows him as pretty easy going and a practical joker when he was a player," Hudson said. "I think it will be a little more fun in the bullpen area. It's going to be about learning how to pitch and having fun while you're doing it, not so much walking on eggshells down there."

That's two days in a row that Hudson said something slightly negative about Leo. I wonder if the two got along?

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 01, 2006
Endorsing the Stathead
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Paul Schaffer of the Dayton Daily News endorses Paul DePodesta for the position of Reds GM.

With his approach, Beane consistently keeps his team in playoff contention with a small payroll.

In 2004, DePodesta tried to bring these ideas to the Dodgers, but he got ripped in the L.A. media, especially when he dared to trade catcher Paul Lo Duca, a fan favorite. He ended up fired at the end of 2005, when the injury-ravaged Dodgers finished with a 71-91 record after making the playoffs in 2004.

The unfathomable aspect of baseball is why the Moneyball model for success isn't more popular. The National Football League is noted for being a copycat league. Teams often embrace new strategies in their efforts to stay competitive.

Logically, other teams should try to emulate Beane's blueprint. Instead, the baseball establishment is so resistant to change that Beane is called "lucky" and his brethren are vilified as "statheads."

Well, here's one stathead who wants a DePodesta, or at least a Krivsky, for the Reds. I don't want the produce man to hand us a lemon.


Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Changing Sox
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Gordon Edes pens a moving article about Tommy Harper finally feeling at home in Red Sox Nation. He gives all the credit to the new owners:

But on this morning, as Pat Williams, the former Orlando Magic executive who cut his teeth in baseball, told the kids about the lessons he drew from Robinson's life -- lessons of courage and self-discipline, character, competition, and leadership -- Harper declared that at long last, the Sox are emerging from the shadows of their past.

''When John Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino bought the team, yes, there was a definite change," he said. ''There are changes that maybe you can't see, but I see. There's a different attitude. There's a feeling of genuineness. Nobody had to pressure John Henry to change things. He didn't need anyone to tell him to change. He changed things because he wanted to."

Harper possesses a tremendous amount of credibility when it comes to the Red Sox and race relations. It's good to see this owner did not continue that particular legacy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Camp Roger
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Roger McDowell opens the Braves early pitching program today, his first official act since taking over for Leo Mazzone. Tim Hudson is glad Roger is there:

"I think it's going to be great having his personality around the team," said Hudson, who agreed with pitcher John Smoltz that replacing Mazzone wouldn't be as difficult as outside observers believe.

"I don't think it's going to be a big deal at all," Hudson said. "Leo was great; don't get me wrong. But at this level, there's not a whole lot of coaching going on. It's more like a lot of brain massaging.

"If you have a guy who understands the game, who understands what it's like to be out there, understands the struggles and the things pitchers go through, that's what you want from a pitching coach."

It's a tough act to follow for someone in his first job as a major league pitching coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
January 30, 2006
Finished Testimony
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Arte Moreno finished his testimony today.

Moreno also testified that he was unaware of the emotional curtain that divides Orange County and Los Angeles when he thought about the name change.

Arte just continues to endear himself to the people of Anaheim. It's too bad, because in regards to trying to win, he's a very good owner.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Marketing Ploy
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The Pirates announced a new way to increase attendance: more mascots!

The Pittsburgh Pirates will introduce a new staff member April 16. Joining the Pirate Parrot will be another team mascot.

"He will not replace the big green chicken because everyone loves him," said Tim Schuldt, vice president of marketing, sales and broadcasting for the Pirates. "The new mascot will be warm and cuddly with one gold tooth. He looks like a Pirate. One will work the one dugout and the other will work the other. Fans will love him."

Adding another mascot is one of many things the Pirates' front office plans to do to attract more fans this season. The goal is to reach the 2 million mark in attendance, which has been achieved just three times in the team's 120-year history.

"Honey, the team has a cuddly pirate as a mascot this year! Let's buy season tickets!"

They might want to try winning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
January 28, 2006
Moreno Stumbles
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Arte Moreno testified in the Angels name case, and I'm not sure he won over a lot of Anaheim residents with this:

He compared Anaheim's relationship with Los Angeles to Queens or the Bronx and New York City. Anaheim is about 30 miles south of downtown Los Angeles in Orange County.

My guess is that Anaheimites (Anaheimians?) don't think of themselves as a burrough of Los Angeles.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:13 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
January 27, 2006
A Devil Ray By Any Other Name...
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The Devil Rays are going to change their nickname for the 2007 season. For some reason, people have a negative connotation of the word, "Devil."

After talking with fans in focus groups, the team learned there was a "negative association" with the terms, "Devil Rays," and "devil," Silverman said.

"When they liked something we did, they would refer to us as the Rays. If they were discussing a complaint or gripe, we were the Devil Rays," Silverman said.

Of course, that might be the same as your parents using your middle name when they're upset with you. :-) Of course, the team runs the risk that no one will notice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 AM | Comments (26) | TrackBack (0)
Revenue Sharing
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Jeff Passan in the Kansas City Star covers all the angles on revenue sharing today. He quotes economists, small market owners, large market owners, agents and the union. Here's Andrew Zimbalist:

This was a system thats supposed to create competitive balance, said Andrew Zimbalist, an economist who has consulted with Major League Baseball. If all it does is take $20 million or $30 million from one team and give it to another, it might make David Glass happy, but it doesnt do anything for competitive balance. The system right now penalizes success and rewards failure. It might sound clever, but its true.

The Royals are an example of a team that has benefited from the dole in baseball. Insofar as if you can say theres welfare abuse from laziness anywhere in our country, theyd be a potential candidate.

Scott Boras proposes something I like:

And sometime, while revenue sharing is on the table, a large-market owner could make this point brought up by agent Scott Boras: If an owner purchases a small-market team at a fraction of the price of a big-market team, why should the smaller team be entitled to an equal share of revenues?

We have a responsibility, Boras said, where there should be a platform that says if an owner is unsuccessful for a long time, there should be a mandate given to him about his ability to stay in the league. That may give him (the incentive) necessary to stay competitive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
January 26, 2006
Touchy Feely Sox
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Gordon Edes sums up damage control day at Fenway yesterday.

Oprah could have had a field day. Fact, fiction, or to use John W. Henry's word, ''mythology," Ms. Winfrey could have advised all of Theo Epstein's adoring fans to disregard the inconsistencies of the million little pieces involved in his departure from the Red Sox and focus on the ''underlying message of redemption" in his return. That worked for America's most famous self-proclaimed crackhead author, James Frey, why not for a fractured front office?

And of course, there's the hug:

Sunday night, at the Brookline home of Larry Lucchino, in the presence of principal owner John Henry and chairman Tom Werner, Lucchino and Theo Epstein agreed that Epstein would reclaim his rightful role as general manager. And then they did something that photographers throughout New England would have paid a hefty sum to have captured for posterity.

They hugged.

''At one point," Henry said, speaking by phone late last night, ''we started to celebrate. Then we said, 'Let's execute, as opposed to celebrating.' Though I did see those two hug. Maybe that was my imagination. But I'm sticking to it."

I remember Michael Corelone hugging people. From Edes article:

Truer words were spoken by Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who never bought into the idea that Epstein was more bent on becoming a roadie for Pearl Jam or taking the same humanitarian path as brother Paul than he was on running the Red Sox. ''It's like a Mafia hit," Ricciardi had said after Epstein bolted. ''You don't believe it until you see the guy at the funeral."

It's not in Lucchino's makeup to stay out of Epstein's way. In a month (or as soon as Theo tries to make a deal Larry doesn't like), they'll be back to the, "real, not imagined, fissures in their relationship."

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)