Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 30, 2007
NL East Preview, 2007
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The NL East in 2007 looks like it will come down to a battle between a great offensive team and two top notch pitching staffs. The Mets are defending champs and posted the best record in the NL in 2006, only to fall to the Cardinals in the NLCS. They return a lineup solid to great from top to bottom, and even added veteran Moises Alou to boost the offense more. I love the diversity of this batting unit. They have young stars in Wright and Reyes, and great veterans like Delgado and Beltran. The Mets are a perfect mix of power hitters, selective hitters, high average hitters, speed and defense. Offensively, the unit towers over the rest of the NL East.

The pitching, however, leaves much to be desired. With Pedro Martinez out for at least most of the year, and the Mets not really counting on him until 2008, the rotation comes down to two old veterans, two pitchers with questionable careers, and a youngster. Glavine and Hernandez are okay at best, but the bet is that they keep declining. The Mets hoped Rick Peterson could improve Oliver Perez and Chan-Ho Park. Perez pitched well this spring, controlling his walks and making the rotation. Park's ERA was high, but so were his strikeouts. Home runs killed him as he moved to the bullpen to make room for Mike Pelfry in the rotation. By the end of the year, you might be hearing, "Pelfry, Maine and pray for rain" (or a healthy Pedro). But with the Mets offense, the rotation doesn't need to be great to win games. Okay works just fine.

The Phillies and the Marlins, on the other hand, send two fine starting staffs to the mound. The Marlins are loaded with young guns, and veteran Dontrelle Willis is looking to bounce back after an off year. What's great about the fire sale that took place at the end of the 2005 season is that even with Josh Johnson hurt for the beginning of the season, the Marlins can use their depth for a replacement.

The Phillies staff is more on the veteran side, with former Mariners Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer filling out the back of the rotation. But Young Cole Hamels figures to improve on his partial season in 2006, which along with a peaceful Brett Myers gives the Phillies a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

Both these teams also boast great offensive infields. The Phillies generate tons of runs from the right side with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The Marlins get the production from the left side with Miguel Cabrera and Hanely Ramirez. In a way, I like the Marlins a bit more here, since Cabrera and Ramirez are still young enough to be improving, while Utley and Howard reached their peaks. The Phillies own the edge in the outfield, however. That, in my mind, makes the difference between the two, putting Philadelphia a hair in front of Florida.

My gut says the Braves are in for another season of disappointment. The offense is good, on par with the Phillies and Marlins. But the Braves revamped the right side of their infield with unproven players as Johnson and Thorman take over for Giles and LaRoche. And there's always the spectre of a Chipper Jones injuries. Already twice during spring training he's suffered minor injuries similar to ones that kept him out of action in 2006.

When I first looked at this division for my radio show, the once great Braves rotation appeared to be in shambles. But, they've pitched extremely well in spring training, making me much more cautious in my prediction. Smoltz, Hudson and Cormier all showed great control this spring. James posted a fine ERA despite walking a batter every other inning. On the other hand, Smoltz is still a talented ace, but he's growing old and there's no guarantees of a good season anymore. Tim Hudson left his best years in Oakland. Mike Hampton tried to come back, but an injury delayed his return. Right now, I'm taking the spring number with a huge grain of salt, but it's possible the Shuerholz magic in assembling a pitching staff is back.

And bringing up the rear in the division in a bid to win the first pick in the 2008 draft are the Washington Nationals. They start the season with their best hitter, Nick Johnson, still recovering from a broken femur he suffered at the end of 2006. Ryan Zimmerman is the only star on team. The pitching staff is an absolute mess, with John Patterson the only hope of a good starter, that rests on the very big if of him staying healthy. There's not much there on either side of the ball.

The Nats did make a good trade last season, sending relievers to Cincinnati for Kearns and Lopez. Austin Kearns was a promising prospect a few years ago before injuries derailed his career. He showed signs of coming back in 2006, and a healthy year from him might make up for the loss of Johnson. But that's balanced with Cristian Guzman at short, one of the great offensive black holes in the game. Unfortunately, Washington needs fewer Guzmans and more Kearns on this roster. Given the relative strength of the other teams in the divisions, the Nationals will be lucky to win 60 games.

So here's my projected order of finish:

  1. New York Mets
  2. Philadelphia Phillies
  3. Florida Marlins
  4. Atlanta Braves
  5. Washington Nationals

It's at least a three way race for the division, and if Atlanta's spring pitching number hold up, the top four teams will all be in the hunt.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:41 PM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Phillies
Mets (interleague's going to hurt them + their awful starting pitching)
Braves (very close to Mets)
Marlins
Nationals (worst team in baseball)

Posted by: Kent at March 30, 2007 06:11 PM

Interesting, Pinto. That's the very order I predicted (and sent to the guy who is assembling predictions).

To Kent- I agree about the interleague for the Mets-it's insanely unfair- but can you really call their starting pitching "awful"? It might even be above average. It is untried, and weak, but "awful"? It's just not stellar.

Posted by: Blastings Thrilledge at March 30, 2007 06:45 PM

If you think the Braves will come in fourth in the Division, the best that can be said of you is that you are delusional. They have the most pitching depth in the entire division and have virtually the same offense as last year, when they were second in the NL in runs scored. They will win the division. The Mets pitching is every bit as bad as what you say and the Phillies hired some more HR pirchewrs to pitch in that little league field they call a stadium. Even considering the Marlins is laughable. They overused their entire young staff last year and will rack up many days on the DL.

Posted by: Interested Observer at March 30, 2007 06:46 PM

How the MLB gets away with teams in one division playing DIFFERENT teams for Interleague is outrageous.
And the fact that the Mets play all the AL playoff teams while the others don't is barely short of cheating. Parity should not be manufactured by the schedule.

Posted by: greg at March 30, 2007 06:58 PM

I agree with the Observer above. The Mets can rack up all the runs they want, but without a pitching staff to protect it they run the risk of losing many games. The same thing happened with the Braves of '06. Last year they were 2nd in the NL in runs, but their pitching staff cost them lots of things. Had the pitching staff been better:

Smoltz would've won the Cy Young with a 20+ win season.

The Braves would have ran away with the division, certainly eclipsing the Mets.

And the signings in the offseason echo this belief. After just the signing of Bob Wickman, the Brave's second half record was much better than the Mets, who's winshare decreased. This doesn't even take into consideration the introduction of Cormier into the rotation and the signings of Soriano (a low 2 ERA with an AL team) and Gonzales (who was perfect last year with Pittsburgh).

The next biggest threat are the Phillies. But let me ask, when was the last time you heard "The Philadelphia ______ are the world champions!"? I'm just not impressed by them.

Posted by: Brett at March 30, 2007 07:10 PM

i'll go out on a limb (not really) and say the mets staff is terrible/awful/pathetic.

it's embarrassing to have that payroll and such a good team last year and present that to your fans.

i agree that the marlins will suffer this year. what they got last year in luck and lightning they will get this year in injury and sophomore slumps.

i'll go:

phillies
braves
mets
marlins
nationals

the three top teams will be within 2 of the wildcard, so it'll be close.

Posted by: Tim at March 30, 2007 07:37 PM

I don't understand all this hullabaloo about the Braves, who were out of contention early last year and managed to get worse in the off-season. Oh well, I guess everyone is supposed to get excited about their team in the spring (I say as it is snowing outside); even the Nationals-- I was watching one of their ST games and the announcers were real gung-ho about their chances, saying that a lot of people are going to be real surprised... sure.

It just makes it more exciting, I guess. The cocky, upstart and trendy Phillies (they're not NEW YORK, after all); the Braves with their wounded pride and **ALL NEW IMPROVED BULLPEN** and 'I can hit anything' negative VORPing right fielder; the Marlins and their anonymous cast of cheap, quality players and mediocre fill-ins; and the Mets, cool and confident (with a single notable power-pitching left-handed closing exception), to the point where they feel they can afford to keep the Nestorian warrior Julio Franco on their roster and go into the season with a crapshoot of a starting rotation.

It should be a good contest, but I really think only the Phillies and Mets have a chance, with the Mets seriously handicapped by their schedule. Way to go MLB! No to figure out how to actually watch my team play... thanks, antiquated blackout restrictions!

Posted by: Blastings Thrilledge at March 30, 2007 09:04 PM

Good luck to the Mets with their half and half 40 year old/AAA rotation and the loss of five memebers of last year's bullpen. I guess all they really needed to add this winter was Moises Alou, another senior citizen. Or the Phillies, for that matter, with the addition of Garcia and his bicep tendinitis and 32 HR's given up (gee, that numbers going to go down in Philly, ain't it?). Dis the Braves all you like. Their negative VORPing right fielder only hit 29 HR last year and knocked in over 100, but what the hell. Or how about the fact that they lost last year due to no bullpen. They didn't remedy THAT problem over the winter, did they. Oh and let's not forgewt that Hamels, and the Marlins Sanchez and Johnson are due for extended stays on the DL due to overuse last year. We'll see, won't we. Oh and as far as the schedule the Mets fans are using as their first excuse-The only difference is the Braves play the Red Sox instead of the Yankees for 6 games and the Mets play Oakland instead of the Braves' series with the Indians. Big difference.

Posted by: Interested Observer at March 30, 2007 10:35 PM

Phillies
Marlins
Mets
Braves
Nationals

The Marlins are my dark horse team for the wild card and remember what happened the first two times they got that.

Posted by: Syd at March 31, 2007 12:51 AM

The Mets have essentially the same pitching staff from a year ago that won 97 games, and yet it's supposed to be awful? Whatever.

The Braves are more of a threat than the Phils. If Hudson pitches anywhere up to where he was a couple of year ago, then they will seriously contend for another title. He probably won't, but they will still win the Wild Card.

The Phils have the most overrated pitching staff I have ever seen. On what planet are Freddy "dead arm" Garcia and Adam Eaton upgrades. They'll finish in third.

God help the Nats. They really will be awful.

Posted by: paul zummo at March 31, 2007 07:50 AM

The Mets lost 15 victories with Trachsel's departure and 9 more with the loss of Pedro. El Duque is old and injury prone. The rest of the starters are a guy who had one good year several years ago and a couple of rookies. They lost Bradford, Oliver, and Hernandez from their bullpen of last year. Mota is suspended for 50 games for roids and Sanchez is gone util August. Exactly what part of lousy pitching staff do you fail to grasp. The entire reason the won last year is the Braves' lack of a bullpen. They now have the best in the NL. The Mets will return to their usualy ways, eating Braves dust. The Phillies never were. The Marlins are due a team wide sophomore slump. Keep underrasting the Brave. The division will pay. Rollins would do well to shut up.

Posted by: Interested Observer at March 31, 2007 09:24 AM

I am worried about the Phillies' outfield.

Burrell, Rowand and Victorino are hardly solid, predictable offensive players. All three could have good years, or stink up the place. I fear the latter.

Burrell is decent, his numbers defy his perception, but he's not getting younger or looks like he's improved in any way. In fact he had a softballer's gut when I saw him vs. the Red Sox last night. The pressure will crush him. He's the anti-Ortiz.

Rowand is a bad hitter, strikes out too much. His swing is too big. And his speed is declining. He's Trot Nixon without the power.

Victorino has had one partial season and hits .280 with no power and can't steal. (50% success rate). Great fielder but...

None of these three gives you great confidence. If two of three have "good" seasons, I can pick the Phils for first place. If all three have "good" seasons, it will be an easy ride to the post season. Big if.

Posted by: Joe in Philly at March 31, 2007 12:43 PM

I pretty much stopped reading IO's last comment when he noted the loss of Traschel from the rotation. While the absence of a guy with a 5+ ERA is sure going to be devastating, somehow I think the Mets will be able to compensate for the loss. But coming from a guy who thinks Roberto Hernandez was a significant mmeber of the Mets bullpen, I'll take the observations for what they are.

Posted by: paul zummo at March 31, 2007 04:11 PM

Dontrelle didn't pitch too much worse than he did in 2005, but he didn't have the defense behind him he was accustomed to. Uggla and Hanley struggled in the first half and it seemed to hurt Willis more than the other pitchers. Willis is essentially a contact pitcher and not having Luis Castillo/Alex Gonzalez behind him hurt. Plus, Miguel Cabrera also was poor defensively last season, especially early on. Willis' numbers were better in the second half as the defense improved behind him.

Posted by: Jacob Luft at March 31, 2007 06:24 PM

Paul Zummo gets it.

Interested Observer doesn't.

Mets
Joneses
Phish
Fillies
Gnats

Posted by: bmc at March 31, 2007 07:15 PM

I don't get it. The Mets offense is great and the Braves are merely good? The Braves scored more runs than the Mets last season, and there wasn't that much change to either team. The Mets add Alou, the Braves replace Giles and Laroche with Johnson and Thorman/Wilson. That might be a slight improvement for the Mets and a slight downgrade for the Braves, but that makes them about even, not the Mets in a different class. And then there is the age factor. The Mets are going to be relying on Alou and Valentin both of whom are ancient (and Valentin is coming off his best year in 5 years) and the braves will be relying on youngsters Francoeur and Langerhans who should improve (they really can't regress). And Chippers injuries occured last year so are already accounted for. So really, how is the Mets offense better than the Braves?

As for pitching, it isn't even close. Smoltz is better than Glavine, Hudson is better than el Duque (his ERA last year is not supported by peripherals and he has looked great this spring). As to the back ends, both are relying on unproven guys. Even if you give the Mets the benefit of the doubt, that still should make the two staffs equal.

And then there are the bullpens. The Mets lost half of theirs and replaced it with Chan Ho Park and Ambiorix Burgos, the Braves replaced their scrap with Mike Gonzalez and Rafeal Soriano. Hmm, I wonder which is better?

I just don't get why everyone is so down on the Braves. Personally I think it is between Atlanta and Philly, and the Mets will struggle to beat the Marlins unless their pitchers really overachieve.

Posted by: B_Agate at March 31, 2007 11:46 PM
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