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March 16, 2009
New RSS Feed
Permalink If you read Baseball Musings via RSS, with the move to WordPress there is a new feed. Please change your readers to http://feeds2.feedburner.com/Baseballmusingscom. New Look Coming
Permalink We're in the process of porting the blog from Movable Type to WordPress. My goal is to have the new look in place later today. My apologies for the lack of updates today. Team Offense, Arizona Diamondbacks
Permalink 
Chris Young The series on team offense continues with the Arizona Diamondbacks. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the DBacks 2008 numbers. The results:
The Diamondbacks scored 4.44 runs per game in 2008. I almost get the feeling Ralph Houk is managing this team. Ralph liked to lead off with his second baseman, no matter how high or low or player's OBA. Felipe Lopez only fits the role of a leadoff man in that he has no power. Melvin compounds the mistake with Chris Young batting second. He projects to post the lowest OBA on the team. Given this poor top of the order, I'm not surprised the probable lineup ranks halfway between the best and worst lineups the Diamondbacks might assemble. The saving grace of the team is their power. While they don't have an outstanding slugger, seven of the players project to good slugging percentages. What they lose in failing to get on base they make up somewhat in moving the batters who do get on around the bases. Plus, there's a good chance that Marcels underestimate some of these hitters due to their youth. Upton, Drew and Young are all on up slope of their careers. Unless Eric Byrnes returns, none of the starting eight will have a seasonal age of 30 in 2009. With everyone either in or approaching their prime, the offense just might catch lightning in a bottle, much like the Rockies did two years ago. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Diamondbacks opening day tickets. Lastings Impression
Permalink Chico Harlan presents Lastings Milledge in his own words. Milledge is talking about the Mets here: You know, there's always a thing where, Oh, rookies have to be here 2-1/2 or three hours before stretch. No. I'm not gonna be here three hours before stretch. If you're here and you get your work in, it shouldn't matter how early you're at the field. You know what you need to do. That's fine. You don't have to be at the park three, four hours before the park if you don't want. You don't see nobody clocking in three or four hours before they have to show up to work. So, I mean, some people feel like they have to get here to read the newspaper or do crossword puzzles or get their mind ready. I feel like I come to the park, I have 45 minutes of stuff I have to do to get prepared for practice and get ready for the game. Five minutes might be watching videos. Fifteen minutes might be going in the cage. And then getting whatever other work I need. Basically, Milledge didn't want to go through the initiation of being a rookie. He may very well be right, but it didn't sit well with the veterans. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is up to $2295 through the first two weeks of donations. With 16 days to go, continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. Rob Neyer joined Peter with a $100 donation. There are small donors however, and Josh Levitt is one of them. Here's why he gave $5: I am far from a rich guy and I don't have much to give in comparison to other people. But I check baseball musings several times during the day and I appreciate all the hard work you do on the site. Baseball Musings has quickly become my go to site for baseball information and analysis. I thought it was important to show my appreciation for your hard work and passion in anyway I could. According to Google, over 20,000 unique visitors viewed this site so far in March. Five dollars from each of them would allow me to run this site for years. If you use the site the same way, as Peter and Josh, isn't it worth $5 a year? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support!
March 15, 2009
Long Term Lester
Permalink The Red Sox just emailed that Jon Lester signed a five-year deal. This was reported a while ago, but the contract was just finialized. Here's the story from the Boston Herald. Stadium Pictures
Permalink Bob Ruffolo got inside the new Yankee Stadium and post pictures of facility. I like the way they kept the look and feel of the old ballpark. Lugo and Lowrie
Permalink Julio Lugo will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery Tuesday to repair a torn mensiscus. The Red Sox are not sure of the severity of the tear, but Julio is unlikely to make opening day, handing the starting shortstop job to Jed Lowrie. This is a great opportunity for Jed. If he plays well while Lugo is out, he may win the job permanently. Holding him back will be Lugo's contract, which pays him $9 million a year through 2010. (There is a vesting option for 2011, but it doesn't look like Julio will reach the 2400 PA needed.) It's possible that if Lowrie plays well, the Red Sox send Lugo back to the position until they can trade him. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is up to $2245 through the first thirteen days of donations. With 17 days to go, continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. Rob Neyer joined Peter with a $100 donation. Yesterday, the smaller donations starting coming in, as four of the five contributions were at the $5 level. According to Google, over 20,000 unique visitors viewed this site in March. Five dollars from each of them would allow me to run this site for years. If you use the site the same way, as Peter isn't it worth $5 a year? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support!
March 14, 2009
Team Offense, Pittsburgh Pirates
Permalink 
The Pirates have not reached .500 since Barry Bonds departed for free agency. The series on team offense continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Pirates 2008 numbers. The results:
The Pirates scored 4.54 runs per game in 2008. I find two things sad about this Pirates lineup. The first is that the spread between the best and worst lineups is small for an NL team, about 0.5 runs. The second is that even their best lineup is not predicted to score as much as the team did last year. Given the low prediction of runs per game, the lack of spread between the best and worst lineups shows that the team just doesn't possess much offensive talent. Pittsburgh has no power outside of the heart of the order, and none of their 3-4-5 hitters are projected to slug over .500. The top OBA on the team comes in at .346, which wouldn't make a good leadoff man on most teams. The team is going to make a lot of outs, and they can't fall back on power to make up for some of that. Unless the pitching is fantastic, the Pirates are headed for another losing season. Call it the curse of Barry Bonds. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Pirates opening day tickets. Hip to Play
Permalink Mike Lowell and Chase Utley are both recovering well from their hip surgeries. Lowell played Friday night, hit a home run and started a double play in the field. Chase Utley played in a minor league intrasquad game. So far, so good for both. In a related item, Alex Rodriguez is off crutches and will start working in a pool. If They Could Just Find Some Hitters
Permalink The Dutch pitch another good game, but lose to Venezuela 3-1 in the second round of the WBC. The Netherlands hitters are just too weak to take advantage of a pitching staff that is delivering against major league competition. One thing that's becoming clear; Blyleven should be some team's pitching coach. I like him as an announcer, but I get the feeling I would love him instructing pitchers. Team Offense, Colorado Rockies
Permalink 
Brad Hawpe The series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Rockies 2008 numbers. The results:
The Rockies scored 4.61 runs per game in 2008. The Rockies project to be a team that does a great job of getting on base. Of the eight position players, only Clint Barmes to have an OBA below .350. If Atkins and Helton stay healthy, I wonder if the Rockies will play Ian Stewart more at second base? That would give them eight hitters all way above the NL average in OBA. I agree with the Lineup Analysis Tool that Hawpe and Ianetta should be batting higher. If Brad comes anywhere near that OBA, the Rockies are losing a lot of times on base batting him fifth. I'd simply move Brad to fourth and Chris to fifth and let Atkins clean them up with his power. Barmes or not at second base, the Rockies should put a ton of runners on. The smallest amount of luck with runners in scoring position is going to lead to a big scoring year for Colorado. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Rockies opening day tickets (hosting the world champion Phillies). Junk Bonds
Permalink The Red Sox, and it appears every other team, said no to Barry Bonds. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is up to $2210 through the first dozen days of donations. With 18 days to go, continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. Rob Neyer joined Peter yesterday with a $100 donation. It's been an interesting pledge drive, as the site is receiving a number of big donations, but fewer small ones. Once again, I'd like to encourage the $5 donations. If you use the site the same way, as Peter isn't the site worth $5 a year? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Cooper Unhappy
Permalink Cecil Cooper doesn't like the way the Astros are playing right now. He is quite frustrated with the Astros' offense this spring, which makes sense considering they are hitting .224 this spring. The team isn't very sure-handed either: So, the defense hasn't exactly made Cooper happy either. Carlos Lee had one error Friday. This, unfortunately, reflects badly on Cooper. This strikes me as an unmotivated team. Ron Washington went through something similar at the start of the regular season in 2008. With luck, Cooper will find his answer before the games start to count.
March 13, 2009
Team Offense, Milwaukee Brewers
Permalink 
Ryan Braun bats with Prince Fielder on deck. The series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Brewers 2008 numbers. The results:
The Brewers scored 4.63 runs per game in 2008. There's a huge gap between the best and worst lineups the Brewers can put on the field. That usually signifies a large spread of talent in the batting order. For teams like this, it really does matter how the manager constructs his lineup. The only thing I might change here is switching Braun and Fielder, getting Prince's better OBA in front of Braun's power. However, the switch only results in 0.03 more runs per game, or about five runs over the season. That's half a win, and in a close division or wild card race it might make a difference. There really isn't much OBA from the fifth slot down. Pitchers should have it pretty easy once they get through he heart of the lineup. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Brewers opening day tickets (hosting the Cubs). Cano Stiff
Permalink Robinson Cano came back from the WBC with a stiff shoulder. He knew about it before he left the Yankees camp but didn't say anything: I checked with Brian Cashman, who confirmed with trainers that today is the first the Yankees had heard about any problems with Cano's shoulder. Cano doesn't think it's anything serious, just stiffness, but as I pointed out to him, that's what Alex Rodriguez thought about his hip and he just had surgery. It's probably good for the Yankees that the Dominicans got ousted by the Dutch. (I love writing that.) Musical Interlude
Permalink A friend of mine, Nick Chichile just recorded a new song. I like it, as it has echos of two artists from my youth. He'd love to hear your opinions of "Sunless." Ring His Anibal
Permalink Anibal Sanchez won his arbitration case. The Marlins are so cheap they need to screw with service time for one of their players? In general, I like the way the organization tries to rebuild itself, but when they cheap out like this I find it very difficult to like this team. I would be very happy to see this ownership go. Is it too much to hope for that they have a Dominican Republic scandal brewing? First Drug Test
Permalink Shawn Haviland arrives at his first minor league spring training. He gets selected and inspected: The drug testers came to the A's complex on Wednesday. For the first time ever I was randomly selected. I'll say one thing about this whole experience, it is unbelievably hard to use the bathroom when someone is watching you with your pants around your ankles and your shirt lifted up to your neck. He also gives the lowdown on the dreaded conditioning test. Pat Thanks Fans
Permalink Pat Burrell took out ads in the Philadelphia newspapers thanking fans for their support. Given that he was not always treated kindly by the Philly fanatics, it's a very generous gesture. Build Your Own Ballpark
Permalink James Crabtree sends along this link to a paper Wrigley Field. Just print, cut, fold and assemble. Finding the Silver Lining
Permalink Richard Durrett liked what he saw from Brandon McCarthy Thursday: You could make an argument that this was McCarthy's best outing since Aug. 5, 2007, when he had a quality start, allowing two runs in six innings. By my count, yesterday was the first time he'd pitched four scoreless innings since Sept. 20, 2007. I'll feel better about McCarthy when he starts the regular season well. Thirteen Lovers
Permalink Home Run Derby presents the All-13 team in honor of Friday the 13th. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is up to $2105 through the first eleven days of the pledge drive. With 19 days to go, continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. Rob Neyer joined Peter yesterday with a $100 donation. It's been an interesting pledge drive, as the site is receiving a number of big donations, but fewer small ones. Once again, I'd like to encourage the $5 donations. If you use the site the same way, as Peter isn't the site worth $5 a year? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Williams Accused
Permalink A woman accused Bernie Williams of hitting her while she tried to take his picture. I hope this isn't true, Bernie always seemed like one of the good guys.
March 12, 2009
Emerging Coach
Permalink Karen Crouse talks to Mark McGwire, who coached four players this winter. "I very rarely talked about my swing when I played," McGwire said. "Really, not that many people asked. It's really interesting to try to talk about it with hitters. It was so enlightening to work with the guys over the winter and see how their minds work. It was neat when you can see the light bulb go off." One thing people forget when it comes to steroids is that you still need a good swing to hit the ball. McGwire had the swing and put the muscle behind it. Manny Being Hammy
Permalink Manny Ramirez couldn't start today: Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Manny Ramirez was scratched his first scheduled spring training start because of tightness in his left hamstring. I guess he wasn't working out much in Costa Rica. Team Offense, Atlanta Braves
Permalink 
Chipper Jones The series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Braves 2008 numbers. The results:
The Braves scored 4.65 runs per game in 2008. I really don't like the way the middle of this lineup is put together. With McCann and Kotchman on the team, Cox projects to bat the fading Garret Anderson fourth. The Lineup Tool gets this right, batting both Anderson and Francoeur near the end of the offense. The probable lineup puts McCann in a very bad spot, with a poor hitter in front of him to limit RBI opportunities, and a poor hitter behind him to limit run scoring opportunities. To me, Jones, Kotchman, McCann gives the Braves a better heart of the order and raises the probability of getting three straight hits/on-base in the heart of the order. That would score more from the top and set up the bottom for RBI. I like the Marcel projection for Chipper. What would Braves fans rather have, a year where he threatens .400 but only plays 128 games or the Marcel projection and Chipper on the field for a full season? Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Braves opening day tickets. Sugar on Cellulose
Permalink Jon Weisman reviews the film "Sugar" and loves it. Prior's Mechanics
Permalink Jeff Passan pens an excellent piece on Mark Prior that questions whether his mechanics caused his injuries. Well worth the read. The Charlie Blackiest
Permalink Via 6-4-2, this Peanuts parody is just brilliant. And I think about how my sister's sweet on you and I know she's too good for you just like the red haired girl is too good for me... Maybe the author, Frank Miller, will do a complete graphic novel at some point. Perez Out
Permalink Fernando Perez of the Rays will miss three months after injuring his wrist trying to make a diving catch. Joe Maddon discusses the impact on the team: As for the impact on the Rays opening day roster, Maddon said Perez "probably would have played" in centerfield to open the season if CF B.J. Upton were not ready to return from offseason left shoulder surgery. Now, Maddon said Perez's absence gives other players opportunities to get out there. I'm guessing this gives the Rays an incentive to get Upton back sooner than later. Team Offense, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Permalink 
Bobby Abreu The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Angels scored 4.72 runs per game in 2008. If Mike Napoli hits like Marcel projects, he'll be hitting much higher in the lineup by the middle of the season. The Angels lineup starts great, building OBA and power through the first third of the order. With his decreasing power, I like Bobby Abreu in the two hole. The middle third is just an out machine. True, the batters there can do some damage with the long ball, but there's no reason to pitch around anyone there, since they'll probably chase outside pitches anyway. Once again, for the majority of this lineup, putting the ball in play hard will be the key to success. That will help them score enough runs to win with a good pitching staff. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Angels opening day tickets. Baseball in Winter
Permalink Cardinals Best News Links looks at the St. Louis players participating in the Winter Leagues. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is up to $1910 through the first ten days of the pledge drive. With 20 days to go, continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. If you use the site the same way, won't you join Peter with a contribution? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Tapping Into TARP
Permalink The MTA wants to extract tribute from CitiBank.
March 11, 2009
In This Corner
Permalink Tigers Corner is a new blog designed to present premium Tigers content. TigerBlog provides background on the site. Stop by and say hi. With so many Tigers bloggers involved, it looks like it might turn out to be the place to go for Detroit baseball fans. Dutch Second
Permalink Puerto Rico shuts out the Netherlands 5-0. Both teams advance to the Miami pool with Puerto Rico getting the top seed. They play the loser of the USA-Venezuela game, in which the US trails 4-1 in the bottom of the sixth. Time to Buy a Car?
Permalink A Dallas Honda dealer will refund the money on any car purchased between Monday, March 9, and Monday, March 16 if the Rangers win their first four games and the Yankees lose their first four games. The odds are long but not that bad. If you rate all the games as a toss up, the odds of getting a free car are 1 in 256. Given that the Yankees are starting against the Orioles, the odds are probably longer than that. Still, if you were going to buy a new car, why not take the chance? Does Francoeur Finally Get It?
Permalink So far so good for Jeff Francoeur this spring: And there are the strikeouts, or lack thereof. He has four walks and no strikeouts in 22 at-bats in Grapefruit League games, and no strikeouts in 28 at-bats including games with Panama and Venezuela. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he can walk four times for every 30 at bats during the regular season. Taking a Knee
Permalink Alfredo Amezaga sprained his knee and will miss some time: Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't rule out Amezaga returning before the season opener April 6, but baseball operations president Larry Beinfest wasn't optimistic. He's been a very productive player for Florida the last three years. If the Yankees can handle missing A-Rod, however, I think the Marlins can take a couple of weeks without Alfredo. Shrinking Standard Deviation
Permalink Earlier I hypothesised an answer to Joe Posnanski's question as to why many more people who played in 1930 made the Hall of Fame versus the people who played in 1980. I suggested it had something to do with a shrinking standard deviation. Here's the data to back up my claim. I looked at all players with 400 AB in a season over a ten year span. From 1926 to 1935, there were 966 player seasons that qualified. From 1976 to 1985, there were 1472 such seasons. The results:
Since .300 was and is our gold standard for batting average, it was a lot easier to look good in the era centered on 1930 than 1980. Basically, the voters didn't adjust for the higher offensive era very well. Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays
Permalink 
Dioner Navarro The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Rays scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008. I don't like Carl Crawford in the two hole, and neither does the Lineup Analysis Tool. However, given that this lineup is very close to the runs scored by the ideal lineup, I can't complain too much. This is a good offensive team, although I'd like to see players like Burrell bat higher so he gets more opportunities to get on base. One nice thing is that Upton, Longoria and Navarro are still in the growth phase of their careers. If I had to pick one player to exceed his Marcel projections, it would be Dioner Navarro. He's pulled down by his previous seasons where various personal problems and injuries pulled down his stats. I suspect he'll be closer to his 2008 numbers than his career norms. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Rays opening day tickets (versus the Yankees). The New Pavano?
Permalink Erik Bedard was scratched from his latest start: Seattle Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard was scratched from his scheduled start against Kansas City on Wednesday because of a sore butt. This injury certainly made Carl Pavano the butt of jokes. The Mariners say it's not serious, so Erik should be all right in the end. Back En Fuego
Permalink Joe Mauer's injury is an inflammed lower back: The Twins were relieved to learn today that catcher Joe Mauer only has an inflamed sacroiliac joint following an exam on Tuesday in Fort Myers and a meeting this morning with Twins team physician Dr, John Steubs. I hear morphine works well, or anabolic steroids. :-) More From the Past
Permalink Joe Posnanski wonders why there are more Hall of Famers who played in 1930 than played in 1980: OK, that makes 33 everyday Hall of Famers from 1930 and only 16 from 1980. Half. Think about how amazing that is for a moment -- we're supposed to accept that there were twice as many Hall of Famers in 1930, even though there were significantly fewer teams, even though black players did not play, even though baseball players in 1980 had 50 years of evolution in order to get better. It's ludicrous. And more pitchers from 1930 than 1980 too? Really? Joe goes on to note that if you throw out veteran committee choices, there are still more players from 1930 than 1980. Let me add one explanation. The standard deviation of talent early in baseball was higher. In other words, it was easier to stand out from the crowd. As baseball improved over the decades, the difference between the best players and the average players went down. In other words, you looked a lot better in 1930 if you were one standard deviation above the mean than if you played today. Here's a hypothetical. Take an early year in which the mean batting average was .260 and a recent year when the mean batting average was .260. In that early year, the S.D. might be 20 points, so someone who hit .300 was two standard deviations above the mean. In the later year, the S.D. might be 10 points, putting someone with a .300 BA four standard deviations above the mean. Over the years, however, a .300 BA remains the standard for excellence; we treat a .300 BA the same way someone in the 1930s did, despite it being tougher to accomplish now. Someone who hits .280 in this scenario is just as good as the .300 hitter from an earlier time, but no one is going to put him in the Hall of Fame. I'll try to put together actual numbers later. Please contribute to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. The Bradley Statistics
Permalink Eric Seidman comments on Milton Bradley's quote about playing time with the Texas Rangers, and not wanting to play on days that might hurt his statistics. I think Eric gets it right. The first part of the quote is spot on, but offered with no humility. The second part of the quote, about not playing to preserve statistics, is dead wrong. The Cubs have made a commitment to Bradley, but statistical preservation issues aside, he just is not very likely to be on the field all too often given his track record and the fact that the senior circuit will require his presence in the field. Bradley is, in my eyes, the most talented player of the last ten years who truly deserves to sign one-year deals each season. I'd add Manny Ramirez to that list, but the point is well taken. Waiting for Mauer
Permalink The Star-Tribune baseball blogs are on Joe Mauer watch today as the Twins await the results of Mauer's examinations. The Twins lost Johan Santana last season and were able to compete. Can they take a hit to the other half of their outstanding battery and still win? The Mariners did that in 2001 after losing Griffey and A-Rod, but they brought in Ichrio and Boone who took up most of the slack. Finding a replacement for Mauer will be more difficult. Looking for Answers
Permalink David Ortiz wonders why the Dominicans lost to the Dutch. My guess is that Ortiz is only clutch against good teams. :-) I hinted at this in my live blog last night, but Felipe Alou should never be allowed near a manager's office again. The DR defeat goes down in history with John Thompson's Olympic debacle in 1988. Dutch Coverage
Permalink Here's a Dutch article on the Netherland's upset victory. The photo of the celebration translates to "King Sale (21) was later the center of the revelry." Here's the English translation of the article. It get the feeling stunt doesn't mean the same thing in Dutch. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is up to $1845 through the first third of March. Continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. If you use the site the same way, won't you join Peter with a contribution? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Another Surprise?
Permalink The Cubans and the Australians are tied at two in the bottom of the sixth. The Australians have runners on 2nd and 3rd with two out after a throwing error. Update: A walk loads the bases. Update: A single plates two, and Australia takes a 4-2 lead. The winner of this game moves on to the next round, the loser has to play and win tomorrow to stay in the tournament. Update: If the Australians win this game, then the finals will be split with four team from the Americas and four teams from other parts of the world. I'm sure this is what the organizers had in mind. Update: Enriquez doubles in a run in the top of the seventh, and the Australian lead is one run. Update: That's all they get. The Australians are six outs away from a trip to the US. I'm off to bed. I'll see how this came out later this morning. If someone wants to continue in the comments, be my guest. Update: Cuba wins 5-4. They advance to the next round, but the Australians played a good game. They can advance with a win over Mexico tonight. They beat Mexico 17-7 in their first matchup.
March 10, 2009
Dutch Masters
Permalink That was quite a game. The Dominican pitchers dominated the Dutch hitters for ten innings. The DR batters had their chances, picking up seven hits, seven walks and a hit by pitch, but could only push across one run. Marmol got his first pitch up to the first batter he faced in the 11th, and De Jong banged it. That started the rally, and two errors, Marmol's bad pickoff throw and Aybar's botched line drive, gave Nederland the 2-1 victory. They'll wake up to good news tomorrow in northern Europe. I'm having a Manhattan, grandma Boerum's favorite drink. Grandpa's family goes back to 1649 New Amsterdam, so I'm enjoying this victory. I can't wait to see how the Dutch play in the next round. The pitching was certainly up to major league standards tonight. Still No Score
Permalink With the game scoreless in the top of the seventh, Hanley Ramirez just misses a two-run homer. Twice he's hit the ball deep but just short of the wall for outs. Ortiz is up with two out and a man on first. Update: Ortiz falls behind 0-2, works the count back to 3-2, then pops up on the infield to end the inning. The Netherlands and Dominican Republic remain scoreless. The Dominican staff has yet to allow an earned run in the tournament. Update: The Dutch go 1-2-3 in the seventh as Pedro Martinez pitches a very effective three innings. Update: The DR goes down without scoring in the top of the eighth. The way this game is going, the 13 inning rule may come into effect. Update: The Netherlands go 1-2-3 again. The DR lead in hits 5-2 as the game goes to the top of the ninth. Update: Dennis Neuman of the Red Sox is out for his second inning of work and he's holding his own. The first two batters hit the ball hard, one a line drive right at the centerfielder, the second a deep drive to left, both caught. That's it for the Boston farm hand. It's one of those nights when the hard hit balls keep finding gloves. Update: Markwell comes in and gives up a single to Jose Reyes. Update: Nepotism rules as Felipe Alou sends up his son Moises to pinch hit. Update: Alou hits a soft grounder to short for the third out. The Netherlands is coming up to try for the walk-off win. Update: Rafael Perez takes the mound for the DR in the bottom of the ninth. Update: After a slow roller to the pitcher for the first out, Kingsale hits a chopper that Reyes boots, but it was a tough play. He gets an error. The next batter hits into a force, so it comes down to Randall Simon. Update: Simon hits the ball into the hole between first and second, but the second baseman makes the play. Regulation ends with a scoreless tie. Update: A hit batter and a single put two on for the Dominicans in the top of the tenth with two out. Robinson Cano gets a chance to be the hero. Update: Cano hits a fly ball to right for the third out. The Dutch have been over matched by the DR pitchers so far. Can they change that in the bottom of the 10th? Update: Damaso Marte starts the tenth on the mound for the DR. Update: Nederland gets a hit, but fail to score. On to the 11th and closer to starting an inning with men on first and second and no one out. Update: Boyd walks Jose Reyes with two out in the top of the 11th. Update: Bautista hits a liner to right, Kingsale slides but misses the ball. It goes to the wall and Jose Reyes scores. It's 1-0 Dominican Republic, and Bautista gets a triple. Given the way the Dutch have hit in this game, that might be enough. Update: Hanley Ramirez strikes out to end the innings, and the Netherlands needs one run to stay alive. Update: Carlos Marmol takes the mound for the DR in the bottom of the 11th. Update: De Jong pinch hits for his first at bat in the WBC, and hits the first pitch to the wall in left-center for a double. Update: Curt Smith pinch hits. Update: Smith hits a roller up the middle. Reyes is able to get to the ball and toss out Smith, but De Jong gets to third with one out, and the infield comes in. Kingsale gets a chance to make up for his play in right that allowed the run in the top of the inning. Update: Kingsale drops a single into short right-center! De Jong scores and the game is tied at one! Unbelievable. Update: Marmol attempts a pickoff, but throws the ball down the right field line. Kingsale goes all the way to third! Update: Schoop strikes out swinging. He was just overmatched. Marmol now intentionally walks Randall Simon to bring up de Caster. Update: Marmol falls behind de Caster 3-1. He throws a fastball by the batter for a 3-2 count. de Caster then lines a ball down the first base line that hits off the fielder Aybar and de Caster is safe. Kingsale scores from third and Nederland goes to round two! I'm stunned and happy. This game just put the World Baseball Classic on the map. By the way, Felipe Alou joins John Thompson in the crappy international coach Hall of Fame. Please contribute to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Team Offense, Florida Marlins
Permalink 
Hanley Ramirez
The Marlins scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008. Fredi Gonzalez and the Lineup Analysis Tool's best order both have a stretch of the lineup that goes McPherson-Pitchers-Maybin-Baker-Ramirez. Fredi's starts in the 8th slot, but the program starts it one batter sooner. That puts the hitters with the best OBAs 1-2 in the order, and Hanley's power still gets to pickup Maybin when the lineup circles to the top. It's nearly a .25 run difference, or 40 runs over a full season. That might be enough to get me to try batting the pitcher 8th. I like this lineup, as everyone, except may McPherson either gets on base or hits for power. There's no truly bad hitter in this lineup. If their young pitchers stay healthy, this might turn out to be a very good team. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Marlins opening day tickets. Out of a Jam
Permalink The Dominican Republic puts the first two batters on in the top of the fourth, but wind up leaving the bases loaded as the Dutch pitch out of the problem. The game remains scoreless. The winner advances to the next round of the WBC. Update: Ubaldo Jimenez sets a WBC record with his 9th strikeout of the game. That came on the 2nd out of the fourth inning. If he wasn't limited to 70 pitches, he might strike out over 20. Update: Jimenez strikes out one more in the fourth, for ten of the 12 outs recorded. He's very close to the 70 pitch limit, however, so he's probably done. One for Lester
Permalink Jon Lester signed a one-year deal, along with the rest of the Red Sox young players. There was a story the other day that he agreed to a long-term deal, but that story is not true yet. No to Morrow
Permalink Brandon Morrow suffers a setback after a bullpen session and won't make the Mariners starting rotation out of spring training. Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals
Permalink 
Kahlil Greene The series on team offense continues with the ST. Louis Cardinals. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the team's 2008 numbers. The results:
The Cardinals scored 4.81 runs per game in 2008. This is pretty cool. The bottom four of La Russa's lineup match the bottom four of the best lineup calculated by the Lineup Analysis Tool. La Russa might do better batting Albert Pujols in the leadoff spot, but there's no way Albert would do that. Still, but splitting the batters correctly top five vs. bottom four, this lineup comes very close to the optimum. The wild card in the Cardinals order looks like Khalil Greene. His numbers are projected to be very low, but the move out of PETCO could really help his power. PECOTA has him at .311/.429. That would bring the probable lineup to 5.1 runs per game. An even better year from Greene takes some pressure off the Cardinals pitchers. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Cardinals opening day tickets. Weakened Dominicans
Permalink David Ortiz's shoulder is preventing him from playing first base, and that's preventing the Dominican Republic from putting their best WBC team on the field. The Eck
Permalink Nationals hitting coach Rick Eckstein appears to be making progress with Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns. He made changes to move Kearns back to how he was hitting when he came up. If Eckstein can get Zimmerman, Johnson, Dunn and Kearns to all improve, the Washington offense might not be too bad. Silver Lining
Permalink Kevin Millwood pitched poorly yesterday, but the Rangers find a silver lining: Millwood made progress on both the health and endurance fronts, a departure from his previous spring trainings with the Rangers in which muscle tweaks sometimes outnumbered innings pitched. In each of his last two camps, Millwood, the Rangers opening day starter, has pitched less than 10 innings in "A" games. His performance during the season has suffered because of it. One thing to keep in mind as you watch the scores and stats is that players aren't always trying to get every batter out. Sometimes, they're just trying to work on a pitch, or in this case simply extend themselves. Watch how Millwood's last two starts go to get a better gauge on how he might perform in the regular season. Run Visualizations
Permalink FX Visualizations presents graphs of run values by pitch locations. Great stuff, with the best place to put a pitch turning out to be the inside edges of the strike zone. Hat tip, Beyond the Boxscore. MIT Conference
Permalink Sal Baxamusa summarizes the MIT's Sloan School of Business Sports Analytics Conference. I get a mention: Baseball Musings blogger David Pinto said that the effectiveness of the shift at neutralizing lefthanders suggested that more hitters should attempt to dunk or bunt the ball the other way. Rehman was not optimistic, saying that for players it was a buy-in and ego issue that may not be worth broaching. He made a good point: how do you convince a slugger to dunk the ball the other way rather than rip a 400-foot bomb to right? My main point was the free base was worth a lot. In other words, why would a hitter trade a near 1.000 OBA just to be macho and pull the ball? I understood Rehman and Pupura's point that it's difficult to tell a hitter to go the other way. Successful baseball, however, is all about making adjustments, so the players should want to adjust to the shift. It's like the argument about walking Barry Bonds. It's a bad idea to walk Barry Bonds; you're increasing his team's offense, not decreasing it. The same with hitting against the shift. It's a free time on base. It helps, it doesn't hurt, and it's even better than a walk, since anyone on first is going to end up on third since no one is there to cover the base. You can find my posts on the conference starting here and working backward. Season Ticket Problems
Permalink Jay Jaffe rounds up the problems with relocating Yankees season ticket holders to the new stadium, including the obstructed view foul pole seats. The obstructed view problem strikes me as one in which technology could really help. As was pointed out in this session on technology at MIT over the weekend, chips can be embedded in balls that can transmit information about the flight path. Maybe a localized GPS system can track the ball, letting the umps know if it was fair or foul. They would not need to rely on replays either. An even simpler idea might be a virtual foul pole, a circle of lasers shooting up to a collector at the top of the stadium. Fans could see through the light, and the collector would be able to tell if the light was interrupted as the ball sailed through. It's time for teams to get more creative with home run detection. Back in Action
Permalink Johan Santana's elbow appears to be fine. He'll start on Thursday after a good bullpen session: Since a false start earlier in camp, when he was scratched from a "B" game against Italy because of elbow tightness, Santana has shown no signs of being slowed. One clear indication Mets officials feel good about the ace's health is that few executives bothered to monitor Santana's bullpen session. Only chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon, who had just returned to camp, checked it out. Manuel suggested Santana could go two or three innings and throw 45 pitches against the Marlins. There's no mention of Santana's status for opening day. Manny Becoming Manny
Permalink A new book on Manny Ramirez hits the stands today, Becoming Manny: Inside the Life of Baseball's Most Enigmatic Slugger Q. If you had to diagnose him, what would you say? I have a cousin who plays accordion. She competed when she was young at the state and national level and did very well. I've seen her in the flow state. She would just rest her head on the instrument and play, almost in a trance. I guess Bostonians should have just gone with the flow. Continuity Problem
Permalink Via Texas Rangers Blog, unfortunate timing at ESPN. They do say timing is the essence of great comedy. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive shot up to $1700 in contributions through eight days. Continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Peter Gammons donated $500 and is now listed under patrons in the side bar. Peter's reasons for giving? I use it every day, I use the day-to-day database ten times a day during the season...and you find the most unusual links. If you use the site the same way, won't you join Peter with a contribution? Few can afford $500, but 100 readers donating $5 each accomplishes the same goal. That helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Rusty's Right
Permalink I'm not a big fan of the legal advice Rusty Hardin gave Roger Clemens, but I have to agree with Rusty on this: If the federal prosecutors move to indict Clemens and seek to use the substances found on the drug paraphernalia as evidence, Clemens's lawyers are expected to question their authenticity and the chain of custody. Clemens's lead lawyer, Rusty Hardin, said Monday night that he was not surprised to learn that performance-enhancing substances had been found. Of course, Hardin has to add, "The fact is Roger never used steroids or H.G.H." He had me at "Duh." I don't know if McNamee created the evidence or not. I just have a difficult time trusting the evidence.
March 09, 2009
Chavez Problems Continue
Permalink I'm continuing to wonder if Eric Chavez will ever be healthy again: Eric Chavez's surgically repaired right shoulder bothered him when he was hitting during Oakland's exhibition game Sunday, forcing the Athletics to push back his spring debut in the field. The A's kept Chavez and let Miguel Tejada go. At the time, it looked like the right move. Beane got Zito and Mulder right, but he got the left side of his infield wrong. Kidney Punch
Permalink Joe Mauer needs an MRI due to back pain: "We've got to figure out what's going on so we can get him back and get him on the field," manager Ron Gardenhire said after the Twins' 4-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. "This is another effort to try to figure out where we are at and what we need to do. He's not on the field yet. He's not able to consistently go out and do anything. Concerned? Yeah." Mauer is not only the best offensive player on the Twins, but plays a key defensive position well. Losing him hurts the Twins on both sides of the ball. Dutch Treat
Permalink Bernie Williams makes a bad play in the outfield, and the Netherlands drive in the resulting runner for a 1-0 lead in their game against Puerto Rico in the top of the second. A second upset for the Dutch would put them in the next round. Update: Bernie costs Puerto Rico another run as he gets thrown out at the plate on a two-out single to right in the bottom of the third. He's just too slow. The Dutch still lead 1-0. Update: The Netherlands loses 3-1. That sets up a DR-Dutch rematch, with the winner going to the next round. Catching the Floater
Permalink Art Martone donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to the Projo Sox Blog. George Kottaras gets a chance to catch Tim Wakefield this week: After all, Kottaras, 25, might have a shot to become the knuckleballer's personal batterymate. Bard did a poor job with Wakefield in his last stint with Boston, so the Red Sox need a backup plan. Wishes Come True
Permalink Make-A-Wish Foundation® of Southern Florida is holding an auction: For the 16th consecutive year, the Make-A-Wish Foundation® of Southern Florida will provide local sports fans a night to get to close to their heroes when it presents "Sports * Stars * Wishes . . . The Make-A-Wish Ultimate Sports Auction." The event -- which includes players, coaches, executives, and alumni from the Miami Heat, Florida Marlins, Miami Dolphins, Florida Panthers, and University of Miami Hurricanes -- will be hosted by Emmy Award-winning broadcaster James "JB" Brown, host of the "NFL Today" on CBS. Here's video: It's a great cause. Kazmir Feels Good
Permalink Scott Kazmir liked his first spring training outing: "Everything felt incredible; that's seriously the best my arm has ever felt," he said. "At the same time, I felt like I wanted to take it easy this first start. I knew once I got out there and got a hitter out there in a real game, the adrenaline was going to be there so I didn't want to overdo it." He'll be the number 2 pitcher in the Rays rotation as Joe Maddon wants to split Shields and Garza with the lefty. Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Orioles scored 4.86 runs per game in 2008. The Orioles may hold the record for actual lineup closest to the ideal lineup in terms of run production. If you look at the Lineup Analysis link above, the bottom lineup in the top 20 matches the Orioles lineup in five spots. One change that makes sense is moving Luke Scott ahead of Adam Jones. Jones, However, is still young, so I can believe he might exceed this projection, and that would certainly give the Orioles a boost. Like last season, this is a good offensive team. The bottom of the lineup isn't great, but they do have enough near the top put some runs on the board. They need to find pitching in order to compete. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Orioles opening day tickets (hosting the Yankees). Yearly Rights Squabble
Permalink MLB has not signed off on Sirius customers getting to hear games on satellite radio, despite XM and Sirius merging. Screaming Shots
Permalink Michael Young is very good at hitting line drives. That's a good skill, as line drives tend to fall for hits. Surgery Done
Permalink Doctors operated on Alex Rodriguez this morning: Dr. Marc Philippon performed the 1-hour, 20-minute procedure Monday at Vail Valley Surgery Center in Colorado. I wonder if they'll use the running tank for A-Rod's recovery? The White Sox bought one for Bo Jackson in the early 1990s that allowed him to make his comeback. The patient runs in a tank of water, and as he or she becomes stronger, less water is used so the patient supports more of his or her own weight. Ozzie Guillen later used the tank after an injury and came back twice as fast as expected. Getting Older Faster
Permalink Vlad Guerrero inadvertently revealed he is one year older than his age in the media guide: In a morning interview session with reporters, Scioscia said Guerrero's October surgery to clean out scar tissue and repair cartilage damage in his right knee could "point to a guy maybe turning back the clock a couple of years." Readjust your databases and your projections for 2009. The revelation will make it more difficult for Vlad to land another lucrative contract. We saw little interest in teams this winter for older players. Team Offense, New York Yankees
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Yankees scored 4.87 runs per game in 2008. Brett Gardner is having a better spring than Melky Cabrera, but Melky projects slightly better for the regular season so substituting Gardner into the lineup makes little difference. We do want to see what happens with Cody Ransom, however, since A-Rod will miss the start of 2009. Ransom's projection is pretty good, .351 OBA, .450 slugging. Most teams would be happy to get that from a third baseman. The Yankees best lineup drops to 5.52 runs per game with Cody, and with him batting sixth it would be 5.44. So the Yankees would drop 0.2 runs per game with Ransom instead of Rodriguez, but they would still score a high number of runs per game. The real danger to the Yankees, however, is that Rodriguez is the start of the injuries, not the end. Damon, Jeter, Posada and Matsui are all older players projected to put up good stats. Injuries to any or all will put the Yankees closer to their 2008 level. Swisher gives them a little depth in the outfield, so they could probably handle one outfielder and one infielder out at the same time. So this is a high scoring team if they can stay healthy. With a likely improved pitching staff, anything above five runs per game should put them in an excellent position to make the playoffs. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Yankees opening day tickets (new stadium debut). Also, season ticket packages are available, as well as tickets to the exhibition opener of the new stadium. Holland on the Rise
Permalink Inside Corner notes that the Rangers pitching Derek Holland three innings against the Cubs indicates he may be coming to the majors earlier than expected. After putting together one of the greatest seasons by any Rangers minor league pitcher in memory, there's no doubt that Holland is coming. The only question is how soon. Yesterday may have been an early hint that he may be moving up to the front of the line to step into the Texas rotation when one of the five starters goes down. There's also a nice discussion of Holland's mechanics. Spring Repeat
Permalink Last season, the Angels lost both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar to spring injuries. History is repeating as Ervin Santana goes down with a sprained medial collateral ligament in his elbow. He'll miss the start of the season. His improvement on the road last year was a big reason the Angels were able to tolerate the injuries to their big two starters and make the playoffs. Right now, they don't think Santana will miss much of the regular season, but we all know how minor elbow injuries can quickly turn into major ones. The Angels don't quite have the depth they did last year: Santana's absence means that the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation among Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Nick Adenhart will now be a battle for the final two rotation spots behind John Lackey, Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver. A lengthy injury to Santana should make the division more interesting. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive finishes week one with $1215 in contributions. Continuing that pace would make this the best pledge drive in the history of Baseball Musings. Won't you join your fellow readers and give a small amount to this site? A large number of readers giving $5 each helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. Don't let these few readers stand alone! You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Ranking Game
Permalink I just woke up and South Korea leads Japan 1-0 in the top of the eighth inning of the World Baseball Classic. Both teams advance, but a South Korea win gives them the higher seed in the next round. Update: South Korea bounces back from a 14-2 loss to Japan earlier in the pool to hold on for a 1-0 victory. The Koreans win the top seed in pool A, which should give them a easier opponent in the next round.
March 08, 2009
Down Under Upset?
Permalink Australia just took a 9-7 lead on Mexico in the top of the sixth. Pitching hasn't been on tonight on either side. Mexico, however, is playing at home, so this could be a huge upset in the making. Update, March 9, 7:51 AM: Australia wins 17-7, stopping the game on the mercy rule. If Australia beats Cuba, they advance. If they lose, they play the winner of the Mexico-South Africa game and advance on a win. Their chances are looking good. Hip Fix
Permalink David Epstein at Sports Illustrated gives us a complete medical view of what's wrong with Alex Rodriguez and how it's fixed. Lester Extended
Permalink There is a report that Jon Lester received a contract extension, but the Red Sox have not confirmed that. Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, who overcame cancer to become one of the best pitchers in the American League, has agreed to a five-year, $30 million contract extension with a $13 million team option in 2014, a source close to the team told Yahoo! Sports. I'm sure everyone is happy for Jon at this point given his battle with cancer. The Red Sox are obviously very sure there won't be a recurrence if they are willing to commit to a long-term deal. They get a fine pitcher for a very good price. Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
The Phillies scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008, the same number as the Mets. These numbers all come in a little bit behind the Mets. I took a look at the lineup with Burrell in left instead of Ibanez, and the team scores about 0.11 runs per game more, or close to 18 more runs over the season. That's about two wins. Over the last four years FanGraphs, actually rates Burrell as a better left fielder than Ibanez. Given how close the division played the last two seasons, two wins is a lot for the Phillies to give up. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Phillies opening day tickets. Renovating
Permalink The San Francisco Chronicle wonders if the Oakland Coliseum could go back to being a baseball only stadium. It would depend on the Raiders and 49's sharing a football stadium. That works well for the Jets and Giants. The Athletics could then restore the stadium, much like the Angels did when the Rams left Anaheim, at a much lower cost than building something new. When I entered Harvard in 1978, the school was faced with a crumbling sports infrastructure. Building new was deemed too costly, so they came up with a plan to remodel. They built a new pool, but kept the foot print of the hockey arena and created a beautiful new facility in that footprint. They built a new indoor track and turned an old building that was used for similar activities into a basketball arena. The tore out the guts of the football stadium, replacing the support beams and concrete slab seats with prefab concrete, keeping the look and feel of the stadium while giving it a new 75 years lease on life. With the money they saved they were able to add new tennis courts and an outdoor track. More recently, the Red Sox did the same with Fenway park. Their renovations over the last decade make it a much friendlier place to see a game while they've added premium seats. The owner of the Athletics wants to make a new stadium part of a larger development. Maybe, however, this makes more sense for the baseball team. US Revenge
Permalink The US World Basebal Classic team defeats Canada 6-5, making up for the defeat in 2006. Surgery Decided
Permalink Alex Rodriguez opts for surgery on his hip: Alex Rodriguez will have arthroscopic hip surgery on Monday and is expected to miss six to nine weeks. From what I've read earlier on the matter, it sounds like they compromised and are going to fix the labrum, not the bone. The more complicated surgery would have put Alex out for four months, where the labrum repair would take less time to heal. I suppose they could always go back in during the off-season and repair the bone, giving him plenty of time to heal. Update: Here's more from Peter Abraham. They are indeed going to perform two surgeries: UPDATE, 9:36 a.m.: Alex Rodriguez will have less invasive surgery to repair the labrum, try to play and then have a full repair after the season. Looking for Early Fans
Permalink MetsTweets is looking for 1962 Mets fans to follow his Twitter feed.
March 07, 2009
MIT Value of Icon Players
Permalink The final session of the day looks at quantifying the value of superstars. Ray Allen of the Boston Celtics, Carla Christofferson, owner of the LA Sparks, Greg Via of the Gillette Company, and Brian Jennings, EVP of marketing for the NHL discuss the issue with Ric Bucher of ESPN the Magazine. 
Christofferson, Jennings, Via, Allen, Bucher Update: Christofferson defines an icon player as someone people not even interested in the sport know. They help bring in new fans. Update: Via says Gillette only uses players that have won the highest championship in their sport. They use three players globally, and 19 that are used locally. 
Ray Allen Update: Via says they do extensive background checks of the athletes they hire. Bucher asks Allen if he's gone through that, and he says someone was sneaking around his house the other day. :-) Update: Are icons born or made? Christofferson believes fans make the icon. Update: Allen is asked if there is a conflict between an icon and the team concept of sports. Allen says a great player is the best teammate, and you need to have someone with a big ego, someone who is a little cocky. Upset Saturday
Permalink China beat Taiwan earlier today, now the Netherlands take down Edinson Volquez and the Dominican Republic. Maybe the MLB has their academies in the wrong country! :-) No doubt Bert Blyleven is a very happy man today. Update: I'm part Dutch, so I'm a happy man, too. MIT Media and the Fanatic
Permalink The next panel is on the media and fan, concerned with how the media landscape is changing. David Levy of TBS, John Walsh of ESPN, Steve Pagliuca of the Boston Celtics, John Collins of the NHL and Adam Silver of the NBA are the panelist. Shira Springer of the Boston Globe leads the discussion. 
Levy, Walsh, Pagliuca, Collins, Silver, Springer
Update: The difference between Turner and ESPN, ESPN is a brand, Tuner is not. So Turner does more to promote the sports brands they broadcast. Update: Turner is working on a way to allow people who pay for cable or satellite to get all their content online. Update: John Walsh lists all the trends newspapers missed in the last 50 years. He says they are dead and need an undertaker. Update: Stevel Pagliuca makes the point that there media on the internet are all multi-media. WEEI has audio broadcasts, video broadcasts and print. Online, is it a radio station, a TV station, or print? It's all of them. Update: There's a question about cultivating women fans. Adam Silver notes that when the created the WNBA, they thought they would grow female NBA fans. While the WNBA does have a large female audience, more men still watch those games. Update: Adam Silver talks about the problem with rumors on NBA.com. A trade rumor will pop up and get heavy coverage elsewhere. Should NBA.com cover it, even though the NBA knows he rumor is false? Update: What I took away from this panel is that there are a lot of opportunities in new media, but no one knows how it's going to evolve and how it's going to be monetized. That's good, because it makes things more exciting. MIT Technology in Sports
Permalink I'm trying a different panel this time, one that talks about technology in developing equipment. On the panel are Dr. Mike Caine of Loughborough U., Paul Litchefield of Reebok, Steve Solomom of Accrue Sports Entertainment Ventures, Dick Rugge of the USGA and Mike Leigh of the US Olympic Committee. Dr. Kim Blair of Sports Innovation Group LLC moderates. Steve Solomon worked for the people who came up with the glowing puck, K-Zone, and the virtual first down lines in football. 
Caine, Litchfield, Solomon, Rugge, Leigh, Blair Update: Rugge's job is to make sure technology doesn't overcome individual skill in golf. Update: Mike Leigh made the point that technology helped older Olympians stay in the game and compete successfully. Update: Mike Caine notes that we can now equip balls with chips that tell us more about what's going on in the game. Update: Solomon notes that broadband allows low level sports (such as high school) to be available for viewing. In the aggregate, the market is huge, but it would never make it in the traditional broadcast market as a business. Update: Leigh is looking for a way to get an edge in sliding events at the Olympics. You can't heat runners on sleds, so he's wondering if there is a way to transfer heat during the event. He's looking to bend the rules to get an edge. Update: Dr. Caine used the term technological doping, that he sees as inflammatory. Update: I got in a question, can technology replace umpires? Dr. Caine says yes, but thinks that human judgement is part of the game and should remain so. Leigh brings up the point that this technology can be used to help the umpire, for example, telling him that the ball was over the plate. Steve Solomon wondered, however, if fans really want strike zones called to the rule book. MIT Baseball Analytics
Permalink I was not able to blog while I was on the panel, but I thought it went well. Tim Pupura from minor league baseball (former GM of the Astros) and Shiraz Rehman of the Diamondbacks represented management. Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus and myself represented the outsiders. John Dewan of BIS moderated and it was a very lively discussion. MIT Hot Hand
Permalink John Huizinga is now speaking on the hot hand in basketball. It's a good mathematical presentation with probabilities and p-values. Very interesting so far. Update: One of the interesting things coming out of this is that John and his colleague created an NBA database based on chances, where a chance is essentially a continuous possession of the ball. Possessions can have multiple chances as balls go out of bounds or there are non-shooting fouls and offensive rebounds. It's a great way of modeling the game, where events occur within chances. Update: Players are less likely to make a shot after making one. Also, they rush the next shot. The player is also more likely to take the team's next shot, especially a player who handles the ball. It's not defense that clamps down, it's the offense not taking as a good a shot. Update: No evidence of hot hand, but NBA players play like they think there is. MIT Globalization Panel
Permalink The next panel I'm attending is title Globalization of Sports. Jonathan Kraft of the New England Patriots, Tim Romani of the ICON Venture Group, David Baxter of Adidas and John Huizinga of the U. of Chicago are on the panel, moderated by Mike Gorman of the Boston Celtics. I had a chance to speak with Huizinga last night at the Celtics game. He's Yao Ming's agent, and the story of how that came to be was quite interesting. John is not an agent but an economics professor, and one of Ming's cousins was a student at UC. 
Kraft, Romani, Baxter, Huizinga, Gorman Update: Gorman starts with a quote from DAVOS that sports is one of the top ten global industries, and the only one that truly achieved global dominance. Update: Kraft says the Patriots are the first team with a Chinese web site, and now has 20 fan clubs in the country. Update: Romani notes that with teams having built so many new stadiums and arenas in the last 20 years, there's not much left to do in the US, so their group is looking to international venues to build. Update: David Baxter notes that adidas sells more NFL jerseys around the world than any other sport. Update: Huizinga notes the NBA got off to a bad start in China because the NBA didn't understand the world was different outside of the US. The NBA wanted to start a reading program. The Chinese found that insulting, and were also trying to encourage students to study less and exercise more. Update: Is globalization just another term for westernization? The panelist think short term that might be true, but eventually the east will send ideas west. Gorman is asking very good questions. He's done his homework. Update: Gorman asks what is the Black Swan in terms of globalization. It stumps the panel for a minute, but Kraft thinks a terrorist attack at a facility would change the landscape. Huizinga agrees but adds corruption as a second problem. Update: A question comes from the audience on the ability to be a fan of any team anywhere. Romani notes that they start designing venues from the camera positions. Update: Romani notes right now there is money available for infrastructure building from the government, but not for the actual construction of stadiums. Update: Gorman asks are we really globalizing sports, or just creating minor leagues around the world? I hope someday players are willing to play anywhere, because the majors exists around the world. China Wins!
Permalink China defeats Taiwan 4-1 in the World Baseball Classic. It's China's first win in the tournament, and against a country that produces major league players. I'm impressed that their program is coming along so quickly. MIT-Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
Permalink The first panel of the day is starting, Evolution of the Fan Experience. Daryl Morey of the Houston Rockets is moderating Mark Donovan of the Philadelphia Eagles, Jeff Van Gundy and Bill Simmons of ESPN, Sean O'Brien of EA Sports and Brian Burke of the Toronto Maple Leafs. 
Donovan, Van Gundy, Simmons, O'Brien, Burke, Morey Update: Brian Burke says he's in the entertainment business, not the hockey business. His claim is that over 30 years a team is going to be .500, so you can't market around winning. He wants stars and action, likes that his team hits and fights. Update: Bill Simmons believes ticket prices are a problem. With better TV and interactivity, why pay the money when you can stay home and have just as good an experience. Update: Van Gundy notices empty seats at NBA games. People who own tickets might not show up because they don't want to pay the extra $150 for parking, food and extras. Update: Mark Donovan talks about points of contacts with fans. They welcome them when they arrive at the park, high five them when they're leaving. The Eagles try to serve their fans real time in the park. They want the fans to be story tellers about the team. Update: Simmons is showing he doesn't understand basic supply and demand. He dosen't understand why tickets are so much. Burke points out that a lot of season tickets are being split among people, so everyone can afford them. Update: Burke makes the point that someone from ESPN shouldn't be lecturing about what people are charged. Good laugh from the crowd. Update: Brian Burke brings in focus groups to find out what music the fans want to hear at the game. He doesn't understand why O-bla-di is so popular. Update: Van Gundy wants the NBA to develop more rivalries. He thinks opponents are too friendly. They'll have an altercation in the game, then hug afterward. He's like to see more rabid fans, thinks they are too passive. Update: Simmons and Burke agree that the NHL season should be shorter. Simmons to keep demand high (he learns quickly), Burke because the season is too taxing on the players. Update: Teams are using text messages at the game to build databases. Update: Donovan says he wants replays at the game to be better than what you see on TV. Update: Burke has now dissed the Beatles and Opera. Weighing Surgery
Permalink The Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are trying to decide if he should opt for surgery now, or try to play with his injured hip. Surgery now might be better, because playing with the injury might make it much worse and surgery more complicated. He also might opt for just fixing the labrum, and not the bone, which would lead to a quicker recovery time. When a reporter asked Girardi why Rodriguez had not decided to have the surgery immediately, he paused. Indeed. The Yankees have a long term investment here, and it may be better to have Alex miss four months now than the last four years of his contract.
March 06, 2009
Celtics Game
Permalink I'm at the Celtics game with the Rockets front office. Update: Thanks to Daryl Morey for inviting me to the game. I had a nice conversation with one of the Rockets researchers on the way over on how the probabilistic model of range compares to what they are trying to achieve with measuring rebounding. I'm in Cambridge, MA for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, held Saturday at the MIT Sloan School of Management. I attended the first two and both were great conferences, so I'm looking forward to this one. I'll be on the Baseball Analytics Panel with an all-star cast. I'll be live blogging the conference as usual. Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 PM
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Half Full and Half Empty.
Permalink Peter Abraham posts the Yankees lineup for optimists and pessimists. Posted by StatsGuru at 01:47 PM
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Stop Using Cars as a Weapon
Permalink Their seems to have been a lot of anger between Brian Giles and his girlfriend. Great Defense
Permalink Many years ago in one of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James explored the possibility that Ozzie Smith saved the Cardinals 100 runs with his glove (according to Whitey Herzog). James pegged it at closer to 25. Tom Tango looks at the savings a great fielder provides and finds it's about 25 runs. Nice to see different studies years apart come to the same conclusion. First Quarter Final Set
Permalink South Korea defeats Taiwan easily in their first WBC game of 2009. They'll face Japan for the right to advance in the tournament. Steroids Question
Permalink A couple of people wrote yesterday asking if I thought Alex Rodriguez's cyst was caused by his steroid use. I don't know, but that part of the hip doesn't seem like the place someone would inject steroids. I assumed they would go into the meaty part of the muscle. The New York Daily News spoke to doctors, and they doesn't think so either: "Because A-Rod kept changing his story about his steroid use," said Dr. Lewis Maharam, the medical director of the New York Road Runners Club, "it made us skeptical about his hip issue, thinking it could be steroid-related. It is not. Avascular necrosis of the femoral head is linked to steroids and sometimes described by the lay public as a cyst. This is not what he has." The doctors seem to believe that A-Rod shouldn't rush surgery. Team Offense, New York Mets
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
The Mets scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008. Looking at this probable lineup I was surprised to see Delgado splitting Wright and Beltran. In general, putting two high OBA, high power hitters together is a good thing. Delgado is that hitter when he's at his best, but he's getting old and had his ups and downs the last couple of years. Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing Beltran and Reyes flip the 1-5 spots. Daniel Murphy projects to do well, and if he lives up to the .371 OBA the Mets should have a very good pair of table setters. My feeling is Marcel underestimates Reyes a bit, since he came up at a young age and posted a poor OBA for a while. The bottom of the lineup is very weak. That should give opposing pitchers a break, and it's the big reason the Mets project to score fewer runs than last season. They were even with the Phillies in runs scored in 2009 so the division title came down to pitching. With this lineup, the Mets will need to depend more heavily on fixing the pitching to win in 2009. Other teams in this series:
Correction: Fixed the value of the Mets regressed lineup. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Mets opening day tickets (Citi Field debut). International Draft
Permalink Craig Calcaterra notes the Latin American signing scandals are leading to a call for an international draft: And there certainly are problems down there and in other countries not subject to the draft. It's worth noting, however, that apart from addressing the kickbacks and other unseemliness, the powers that be in baseball have another, less-noble incentive to institute a draft, and that's to scale back the bonuses Dominican free agents have been getting in recent years. There's no escaping the fact that an international draft would work to lower salaries. And maybe that's worth doing if it does other good things. But in light of this obvious effect, you'd think that the writer would have asked someone from the union for a quote or two. Eliminating the draft altogether would also lower prices, both for US and Latin players. Big bonuses go to the foreign free agents because of the supply of truly great players is small. Make them compete with US players, and they lose their leverage. Getting rid of the draft also prevents teams from losing out when a drafted player doesn't sign. A team's ability to walk away from a player if he's being difficult and go for another player of similar talents would benefit clubs that don't want to pay over slot. As for the big market teams getting all the good players; they already do. MLB has tried for the last 60 years to limit the big teams, but they always find a way to game the rules. Maybe it's time to drop the rules and see what happens. Please contribute to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. Readers donated $1195 the first four days. Four generous people donated $100 or more, but most contributors donated between $5 and $20. One of the great things about writing this blog is the online friendships that developed over the years. In the last few days I've seen many of my fellow bloggers linking back recommending a donation. Thanks so much for your help! Won't you join your fellow readers and give a small amount to this site? A large number of readers giving $5 each helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support! Weighty Problem
Permalink Lone Star Ball looks at Andruw Jones awful spring and concludes: All the armchair hitting coaches who were convinced when this signing came down that his inability to hit was somehow tied to his being fat last year might be wanting to re-think their positions. Jones also compares well to a few players whose careers were over by their early 30s.
March 05, 2009
Team Offense, Cleveland Indians
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Indians. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Indians scored 4.97 runs per game in 2008. The Indians are another team strong from top to bottom. There's very little difference between the best and worst lineups Eric Wedge can put on the field. If Hafner, Choo and Cabrera live up to their projections, the Indians will wind up with a very strong offense in 2009. I suspect we'll see a big bounce back from Cleveland this year. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Indians opening day tickets. Hip Torn
Permalink Good and bad news for Alex Rodriguez: Alex Rodriguez has a torn labrum in his right hip, but the New York Yankees think he can avoid surgery. Seems like the Yankees are going to see if he can play on it this year like he did last year. If so (see Chase Utley), he can get it fixed in the off season when he has plenty of time to recover. It should be an interesting year for Alex. Update: Peter Abraham talks to a hip expert: A-Rod's ability to play depends on the size of the tear and how quickly it gets larger. At some point, surgery will be needed. If it is only soft tissue, the recovery time is six to eight weeks. If bone must be repaired, it would take three to four months. Is A-Rod at 80% better than most players at 100%? Mr. Roberts
Permalink In an effort to get younger and healthier, the Giants eat the last year of Dave Robert's contract: We just talked to GM Brian Sabean, who said he tried to shop Roberts all winter and spring. The Giants placed him on unconditional release waivers because they want to give younger players such as Eugenio Velez and John Bowker long looks at the fifth outfield spot, and that Velez's chances of making the team as a two-way utility man are enhanced by this move. It's a lot of money for nothing, but I'm glad the Giants are going for youth rather than keeping an aging player on the roster just to pay him. The Dreaded Sentence
Permalink Shawn Hill is traveling for an appointment with Dr. Andrews. Long on the Hip
Permalink Kevin Long discusses how A-Rod's hip injury hurt his swing: Kevin Long, the Yankees' hitting coach, said he knew Rodriguez had a hip problem last June or July. Long noticed subtle changes in Rodriguez's hitting, notably in his right foot, the back one in his stance. It's going to be interesting to see how Utley and Lowell come back from their hip operations. It may tell us how worried the Yankees should be about Rodriguez long term. B Game Start
Permalink Brandon McCarthy is feeling better and will start the B game on Friday. Third Base Options
Permalink Joel Sherman posts on players the Yankees might try to acquire if they need to replace Alex Rodriguez long term at third base. Rooster Crows
Permalink Three Days of Cryin' interviews Rick Burleson. Rick was the first round pick for my 1979 Strat-o-Matic team, the Pinto Hatchbacks. Forearm Tightness
Permalink Brandon Morrow is experiencing a little spring training pain: Stuff like this is why I only expect Morrow to throw between 120-140 innings this year. He's going to need to be handled differently than the rest of the staff, and when his arm starts feeling things, they're going to have to let him skip starts. This is why trading for guys like Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas was important - the M's need to have guys around to take the hill on days when they want to be careful with Morrow's arm. Un-Hip
Permalink Alex Rodriguez's brother tells the New York Post that A-Rod needs hip surgery that will cost him 10 weeks: "Alex is destroyed," Joe Dunand told lasmayores.com, a Spanish language version of MLB.com, in a translated version. "But most important is that the operation is successful and Alex can continue (playing)." The Yankees have not confirmed this. Obviously, it's a big blow for the Yankees, who would be without the slugger for about six weeks, if everything goes well. I wonder if Swisher can play third? I would think the Yankees are looking for a good glove right now. Update: Cody Ransom seems like the likely replacement. At least he knows how to take a walk. I wonder, however, if the Yankees might try for Hank Blalock? The Opposite Message
Permalink The Hooton Foundation was taken in by a group that sells steroids. Penthouse Condo
Permalink Manny Ramirez's former home can be yours! The former Red Sox outfielder put his Boston penthouse condominium on the market for $8.5 million on Wednesday, the same day he agreed to a $45-million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In this market, I suspect the condo will be available for a long time. Japan Wins
Permalink Japan took game one of the World Baseball Classic, defeating China 4-0. The Chinese take this as a great sign of improvement: Given the results of three years ago when China lost to Japan 18-2, Thursday's performance was an improvement. China's pitchers held Japan's star-studded lineup to five hits. Given China's massive population advantage, I suspect they will continue to become very competitive at the sport. Team Offense, Chicago White Sox
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The White Sox scored 4.98 runs per game in 2008. Most managers devise a lineup that may not be mathematically optimal, but is close and makes sense in the traditions of baseball. The lineup analysis tool tends to put high OBA power hitters at the top of the order with a leadoff type hitter batting ninth. Here, however, Guillen's 1-2 hitters get lowered to 8-9 using the tool, suggesting Ozzie has his top and bottom a bit backward. You'll also notice that Pierzynski bats second in most of the worst lineups. Owens bats ninth, which is not a knock against him (second leadoff man), and Ownes-Getz at the top of the order gives the power in the middle more to drive in. If and when Getz proves himself able to get on base, I suspect there will be a flip in the lineup. The power in the middle is impressive. Quentin and Thome serve the dual role of driving in the few runners they'll see in front of them and setting the table for the power behind. Dye and Konerko should each drive in 100 runs even if they don't hit that well, since Q&T should provide them numerous opportunities. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy White Sox opening day tickets. Bigger Tax Bill
Permalink A new minor league stadium in Gwinnett County, GA is going to cost residents. The city needs $62 million in additional revenue as they build a $64 million stadium. Let the team owners build the stadiums! Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. Readers donated $1120 the first three days. Four generous people donated $100 or more, but most contributors donated between $5 and $20. One of the great things about writing this blog is the online friendships that developed over the years. In the last few days I've seen many of my fellow bloggers linking back recommending a donation. Thanks so much for your help! Won't you join you fellow readers and give a small amount to this site? A large number of readers giving $5 each helps buy the stats that keep the Day by Day Database and the Probabilistic Model of Range going. You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support!
March 04, 2009
The Other Zimmermann
Permalink Jordan Zimmermann continues to be a shining light in a dark Washington Nationals spring training: His line through two spring training appearances: five innings, no hits, six strikeouts, no walks. Yes, it's just five innings, but the Nationals don't have too much to be excited about right now. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Team Offense, Detroit Tigers
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Tigers scored 5.07 runs per game in 2008. Last season, the Tigers posted a lineup that looked like it could score close to six runs per game. They actually ended up ranked fifth in the majors in runs per game, but they didn't exactly blast people out of the park. This season, they still put up an impressive 1-6, but they've traded more power at the bottom of the order for more defense behind their pitchers. If that defense can bring down the Tigers runs allowed by 1/2 a run they should at least post a winning record. This is a lineup, however, easily decimated by injuries. Ordonez, Sheffield and Guillen are all up in age, and Ordonez and Guillen are important cogs in this offense. I also wonder if Granderson comes near his projected numbers if he won't start batting lower in the order. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Tigers opening day tickets. Outfield Distribution
Permalink Mike Fast explores DIPS at The Hardball Times. He includes a graph of the distribution of fly balls and line drives to the outfield and notes they peak at the three outfield positions: Oddly enough, we see both fly balls and line drives peaking around the typical positions of the three outfielders and dipping in the gaps and along the lines. I can't think of any reason for balls in the air to preferentially group around those three vectors, so I assume that must be a scoring bias. Accurately marking the location of a ball fielded in the middle of a vast outfield expanse free of landmarks is a challenge, and the MLB stringer may tend to mark the fielding location closer toward the typical fielding position of whichever outfielder fielded the ball. I don't know whether BIS and STATS data suffer from a similar bias. As I wrote him, I don't think it's a bias, I think it's real. I noticed the same pattern when I worked at STATS, Inc. STATS uses up to three reporter accounts to determine placement of the ball, so their data shouldn't be biased. In addition, the primary reporter is at the park, so he doesn't get fooled by TV angles. The only explanation I have is that those are good vectors for getting line drives by infielders, so to the extent a player can direct his hits, those are good places for the ball to go. Please donate to the Baesball Musings Pledge Drive. The Acne on the Back
Permalink Rob Neyer responds to Murray Chass who responded to Joel Sherman on Mike Piazza's back acne indicating the catcher did steroids. Murray's article is the most interesting, since he explains the New York Times would not allow him to accuse Piazza of steroid based on back acne, and that Piazza's acne disapppeared once testing started. Elbow Trouble
Permalink Justin Duchscherer's elbow is bothering him, and he's likely not to make his opening day start: Duchscherer had an MRI exam Tuesday and it showed no significant damage. A doctor recommended the two-time All-Star rest his arm for a week. Meanwhile, Johan Santana wants to start opening day. Sign Bonds
Permalink Matt Snyder makes the case for the Giants signing Barry Bonds: The NL West looks like a relatively wide-open division entering 2009. The Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez to solidify the middle of their batting order Wednesday. The Giants have a decent lineup, but lack a power presence in the middle. Barry Bonds still wants to play baseball, and considering how little interest he's netted the past two years, he'd probably sign a relatively cheap contract. I agree. The Bonds vs. Manny battles will be the greatest show since King Kong vs. Godzilla. Manny Agrees
Permalink Manny Ramirez is just a physical away from signing with the Dodgers, according to ESPN: Ramirez and the Dodgers have agreed in principle on a two-year, $45 million contract, pending a physical. So the Dodgers got what they wanted. It's a short term deal that gives Manny an incentive to play well this season, the chance to become a free agent again next year. Manny saw how his attitude with the Red Sox kept teams away from signing him. Maybe he can rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the other teams with a good season for the Dodgers. Why the Rockies are Losing
Permalink Pitchers and hitters are following a script: In their first two appearances, starters had strict orders: Throw a first-pitch fastball away. If it was a strike, the next two pitches were inside fastballs. The idea is to emphasize the importance of fastball command and owning the inner-half of the plate. I like this idea, especially for the hitters. Get them into the habit of studying the pitcher. We'll see if it pays off during the regular season. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. I Guess the Slider Didn't Help
Permalink Brandon McCarthy will miss his next start. He stopped throwing his curve ball partly because it hurt. Rizzo on the Job
Permalink The Washington Nationals put Mike Rizzo in charge of the team: Saying that his team needed "a little bit of calming rather than more change right now," Washington Nationals President Stan Kasten has given Mike Rizzo control of day-to-day major league operations for the foreseeable future. Rizzo, an assistant general manager with the club since 2006, "will have primary responsibility for all matters relating to the major league team," Kasten said. Rizzo did an impressive job of quickly putting a new Dominican Republic operation in place after the firing of Jose Rijo. He now gets a chance to permanently earn the job as GM. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. A Steroid Story
Permalink Via The Hardball Times, the Philadelphia Daily News talks to a former pitcher about his steroid use. Be sure to read Craig's comments at THB, but this is the part that sticks with me: Asked if he would do it again, he pauses before answering. "I don't know how to answer that," he says. "I don't think I would have. Maybe I would have lost my job that year because I wasn't ready. But maybe I would have taken a year to come back and I wouldn't have pushed myself that hard and I might have maintained my health. This player used steroids to bring his levels into a normal high, what you might find naturally in other athletes. I've always thought the best solution was to make steroids legal, but used under a doctor's care and and the use made public. This pitcher's admissions make me believe even more that it's the right thing to do. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Team Offense, Minnesota Twins
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Twins scored 5.09 runs per game in 2008. The probable lineup is very close to the optimum. The first four batters are only shifted by moving Mauer and hits great OBA into the leadoff spot. The Twins manage to concentrate a good deal of offense into their first five slots. Crede, with his power, is good at finishing a rally, making the seven slot perfect for him. I'm very excited to see Dernard Span. It's tough to find a great leadoff hitter anymore. Teams seem very content with putting someone with a .350 to .360 OBA in the slot. Span projects to .380, and might do better. Should the Twins develop a fan club that sits in the outfield with Viking helmets singing, "Span, Span Span, Span, Span, Span, Span, Span!" whenever Denard takes his position or comes to bat? This is a good Twins offense. If runs scoring continues to be down this year, they'll once again do well in the rankings. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Twins opening day tickets. Happier Agent
Permalink It appears Ryan Zimmerman's agent didn't like working with Jim Bowden, either. New Curve
Permalink Like Brandon McCarthy, Phil Hughes is abandoning his old curve ball. While McCarthy is developing a slider, Phil works on a power curve: Hughes explained that he's throwing his curve with the same arm speed as his fastball. So instead of a big loop (picture Mike Mussina's curve), it goes to the plate on a straighter plane but still has some action as it gets there. It's how A.J. Burnett throws his curve. Good to see these young pitchers adjusting their games for the majors. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. Readers donated $990 the first two days. Three generous people donated $100 or more, but most contributors donated between $5 and $20. Won't you join you fellow readers and give a small amount to this site? You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support!
March 03, 2009
Fans for a Day
Permalink It's A Game of Centimeters in Toronto. Twisted Cyster?
Permalink My Baseball Bias rounds up information on a cyst on A-Rod's hip that might keep him out of the WBC. Speed In and Out
Permalink On Sunday I looked at the effect of speed on getting a good result in different areas of the strike zone. The result was interesting as high speed pitches produced a higher percentage of favorable results, but low speed pitches out performed expectations of the probabilistic model. I was wondering what caused this, and decided to test a hypothesis that it had something to do with the location of these pitches in and out of the strike zone. Fast pitches tend to be straighter; they have less time to curve. If a pitcher needs to throw a strike, a fast pitch is the easiest one to control and put in the strike zone. Of course, these pitches in the strike zone are also easier to hit. On the other hand, slow pitches tend to be breaking balls, pitches that fool batters. A slow pitch in the strike zone should get hammered, but pitchers get good results by getting batters to chase them out of the strike zone. The following table shows the hypothesis has some validity. I defined an area as in the strike zone if the positive probability outcome was greater or equal to .7. The in ratio shows the ratio of the actual success rate in the strike zone to the expected success rate in the strike zone. A number over 100 indicates better than expected success. The out ratio is the same for pitches out of the strike zone.
As you can see, the faster pitches are more effective in the strike zone, the off-speed pitches are more effective out of the strike zone. For every speed from 74 MPH to 86 MPH, a higher ratio exists outside the zone. The PITCH f/x data is pretty much confirming what I would expect. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. A Little Revenge
Permalink Randy Johnson pitched a fine three innings against his old team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, this afternoon. Open Foot, Insert Mouth
Permalink The more Alex Rodriguez talks, the more I think he should adopt the Steve Carlton approach to the media. Team Offense, Boston Red Sox
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
The Red Sox scored 5.22 runs per game in 2008. One marvels at the ability of the Red Sox front office to assemble such a group of selective hitters who also hit for power. The only weak spot in the lineup is Varitek, and if he posts a .325 OBA I bet the front office will be extremely happy. As you can see by the very small difference between the best and worst lineups, it's tough for Terry Francona to go wrong making out the card. I'd love to see Terry try lineup number three some time, starting Drew, Ortiz, Youkilis and Bay 1-4. There are two main worries with this lineup. The first is age and injury. There's a reason the Red Sox wanted Mark Teixeira, they're not sure how Mike Lowell will hold up. J.D. Drew's back is already acting up, and David Ortiz is coming off a wrist injury. The other concern would be with their youngsters, Ellsbury and Lowrie. Jed is still an unknown at the major league level. Ellsbury's offense fell off quite a bit from June through August last year, although he appeared to get his groove back in September. With only 670 at bats under his belt, we're still not sure where Ellsbury will wind up. Even with those concerns, the Red Sox are still a deep team, and even with an injury or two I expect them to be near the league lead in runs scored. Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Buy Red Sox opening day tickets. Strawberry Defends A-Rod
Permalink Darryl Strawberry says he would have used steroids if they were available to him. Coming from Darryl, that's not much of a surprise. At least he's not high and mighty about it. The old timers who complain about this generation would have used them, too. There was nothing special about their attitude toward the game, they were just as competitive, just as likely to go to any lengths to win. Check out this history lesson. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Williams on CD
Permalink Former Yankees centerfielder Bernie Williams is bringing out a new CD on April 14th, Moving Forward
 Bernie plays "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" (windows media), an appropriate track for this time of year. It's a comtemplative take on the tune, both a little sad and a little sweet. I got the feeling that Bernie misses the game from listening to his guitar gently weeping. I'm looking forward to hearing the whole album. Be a Square
Permalink Celebrants are expected to mark the occasion by cutting root vegetables into squares or preparing other foods in the shape of the square root symbol. I think it's actually tough to cut vegetables in squares. That might have been more appropriate for 2/22/08, cube root day. :-) Hat tip, Instapundit. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. A Time to Rest
Permalink Anderson Hernandez played a season and a half in 2008, so he took some time at the start of spring training to rest his legs. NomAr
Permalink Ken Rosenthal reports that Nomar Garciaparra decided to continue playing baseball, this time with the Athletics: Opting against retirement, Garciaparra is on the verge of signing a one-year deal with the A's, according to major-league sources. Nomar hasn't played a full season since 2003. His place is as a backup, and his bat is still good enough for him to fill that role well. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Slider or Curve?
Permalink Richard Durrett interviews Brandon McCarthy about his change from a curve ball to a slider as his third pitch. McCarthy comes off as very knowledgeable about why he's making the change. On top of that, it's less painful to throw: Is the slider easier on your arm than the curve? I always thought it was the other way around. There's also a good bit about how it's much easier to fool minor league batters with his curve, and how the slider looks more like his fastball. Brandon says he got in trouble last year when his changeup wasn't working, because batters could see the curve from his arm angle. The slider is more difficult to detect. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Fun Game
Permalink This looks like a game that would be fun to watch, Yankees vs. Team USA. Cheap Seats
Permalink Big League Stew lists the lowest priced season ticket plans available. Although it's not a season ticket plan, I love the $95 book of vouchers for the Toronto Blue Jays. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Looking for Work
Permalink With the delay in his trial, Barry Bonds told his agent to look for work. Davey Johnson should invite Barry to join team USA for the World Baseball Classic. The stringent drug testing there should work in Barry's favor, and if he shows he can hit, maybe someone will hire him. Fielding Runs
Permalink J.C. Bradbury excerpts the new book from John Dewan, The Fielding Bible--Volume II Hat tip, The Book Blog. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Back Injection
Permalink J.D. Drew flew to Boston yesterday for an injection in his back: "The reason we did it was kind of -- I want to explain this right -- kind of precautionary," Francona said. "We have some time right now because it's so early in March, and J.D., through getting looked at by some different people, though this could be a benefit to him. If it worked, we think we thought OK, good. If it didn't seem to do anything, OK, well it's March 3 or March 2. If I read that correctly, the Red Sox are trying something that might make things better, so it was worth the trip to Boston. Drew posted a .408 OBA and a .519 slugging percentage in 2008. Those numbers are tough to replace, so it's understandable that the Red Sox will do anything they can to keep him in the lineup. Update: Drew gave an interview on the subject today. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Ducksnorts Published
Permalink Ducksnorts announced their new baseball annual is available. For fans of the Padres, this is a must read. You can order the book here. Team Offense, Chicago Cubs
Permalink The series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I use the team's averages from 2008. The results:
The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008. The Cubs probable lineup is upside down. The five through eight hitters own better OBAs than the one through four hitters. While the Lineup Tool puts Bradley and Lee at the top of the order, if I were making out a more traditional lineup I'd put Theriot and Fontenot one and two, with Soriano's power bring up the rear of the middle of the order. Might it be possible that the Cubs score more runs in the second inning than the first this year? Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Cry Havoc
Permalink Redleg Nation notices an interesting connection between Dusty Baker's call for havoc on the basepaths and the Red starting rotation. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Pledge Drive Update
Permalink The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. Readers donated $885 on day one. Three generous people donated $100 or more, but most contributors donated between $5 and $20. Won't you join you fellow readers and give a small amount to this site? You can use PayPal or ClickandPledge. The latter allows you to use a credit card without signing up for an account.
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March 02, 2009
The Big W
Permalink Bleeding Blue and Teal looks at Stephen Strasburg's mechanics and wonders how much teams should consider this in drafting players. He gives Tim Lincecum as an example: Teams do indeed pass guys up because of durability concerns. I was talking to BBT commentor/sometimes writer Dustin Shires about this and he immediately brought up Tim Lincecum, who produced insane numbers with the University of Washington and had possibly the best pure stuff of anyone in the draft class, but was passed up by several teams because of his slight build and unorthodox delivery. Now, Lincecum's mechanics have since been proved to be sound and even revolutionary, but that's not the point. Teams didn't know how he would hold up so they passed up on him. I'm not sure Tim's mechanics are proved sound just yet. He threw a lot of innings in 2008. If he holds up in 2009, then I'd say there's pretty good proof that he's sound, and I suspect young pitchers will start beating a path to the door of Tim's father. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Stadium Photos
Permalink The Voice of Yankees Universe posts the latest pictures from inside the new stadium. It certainly has the look and feel of the old park. Update: From the new to the old. Sully Baseball finds the 1977 post World Series interview in the Yankees clubhouse. The best part is a young Dan Shaughnessy sticking his face into the Reggie Jackson interview. No Trial Yet
Permalink It's official; Barry Bonds won't see a court room until at least July. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Quiet Camp
Permalink Joe McDonald notes that the Red Sox camp is pretty quiet, with only the starting shortstop job and a couple of backup positions up for grabs. Actually, the veteran scribes on the beat say it hasn't been like this in many years. Of course, that makes the Red Sox a big boring. As long as I can remember there were larger than life personalities on this team, for good or bad. David Ortiz still has that, and to a certain extent Dustin Pedroia. It would be nice to see a foil there, however. Reading Between the Lines
Permalink Gaslamp Ball sees Sandy Alderson moving to the Cubs: Alderson didn't have any comment on the rumor, that means it's totally going to happen. If there's one thing I know about Alderson after listening to his interviews is that when he's not answering questions in a really blunt and sometimes condescending manner, then something is afoot. Having Sandy in Chicago might make a trade for Peavy a bit easier. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Team Offense, Texas Rangers
Permalink I delayed my team offense reports this season as I waited for the free agent market to shake out. With Orlando Cabrera signing today, we're a little closer to completion, and the start of the regular season is only a month away. I'll cover the teams based on their 2008 finish in runs scored, starting with the Texas Rangers. I use the probable lineup published at CBSSportsline, and plug OBA and slugging percentage from the Marcel the Monkey projections into the Lineup Analysis Tool. In addition to posting runs per game for the best, probable and worst lineups, I'll also post the regressed value of the probable lineup. In general, teams do not keep the probable lineup on the field the whole season, and this formula should help adjust for that. Here are the results (Elvis Andrus's projection is from Baseball Prospectus.):
There's really not much for Ron Washington to do with this lineup. Texas projects to play eight hitters with good but not outstanding OBAs. It's a team that might lead the league in OBA, not because anyone is outstanding, but only Andrus is below average. Still, that's a big falloff from 2008. The projections show a huge drop in OBA from the fourth slot and in the ninth slot. Andrus's glove better be as good as the Rangers hope, since he'll need to save a ton of runs to make up for his lack of batting prowess. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. The Cousin
Permalink Amy K. Nelson talks to friends of Yuri Sucart to paint a portrait of A-Rod's cousin. He comes across as a gopher, not someone who would come up with a steroid scheme: "If Alex had been loyal to [Sucart], he would've kept him out of this, kept it quiet," said Rijo, fired last week as special assistant to the Washington Nationals following a scandal involving a top prospect. "Yuri has a life, a family; it's embarrassing for him, too. ... Only Alex knew what he put in his body, only Alex knew, and Alex as a player would know what's going on around steroids. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Orlando in Oakland
Permalink The Oakland Athletics just signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year contract: The signing of Cabrera means Bobby Crosby will either be traded or become a $5.25 million utilityman. It is unclear what effect the move will have on Nomar Garciaparra, who was choosing between the A's and retirement, according to a major-league source. That's quite a drop in salary for Cabrera, who made $10 million in 2008. Despite his age, Cabrera's posted OBAs better than his career average the last three seasons. That doesn't make him a great offensive player, but he won't pull the offense down like Bobby Crosby did the last three years. I'm guessing the Athletics will probably end up eating most of Bobby's contract, whether he's traded or not. Orlando also gives the Athletics better range at shortstop than Crosby. Reading Torre
Permalink Roger Angell reviews The Yankee Years Verducci has range and ease; he's a shortstop on the page. He gets us into the visiting-team clubhouse before the sixth game of the Yankees-Red Sox American League championship in 2004 (the Red Sox have come back from three games down), where Kevin Millar, ringleader of "the Idiots," as the hilariously loose team is known, tells manager Terry Francona that the Sox will not be taking practice that night, in order to avoid "Yankeeography crap" up on the stadium's video board. "Whatever you guys want," Francona says. Millar then tours the clubhouse, doling out slugs to his teammates from a bottle of Jack Daniel's he's come upon, and the Sox go out and nail the game. Angell comes off very sympathetic to Torre in the review. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Stan's the Man
Permalink Stan Kasten is acting general manager for the Nationals: Q: If somebody called right now and wanted to make a trade, a deal, who's in charge? It might be a very good time to be low-level staffer in the Nationals front office. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Talking Arbitration
Permalink Squawking Baseball sits down with John Coppolella, Director of Baseball Administration for the Atlanta Braves. The two talk about the arbitration process, how teams reach their numbers, as well as how the Braves look for talent. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Royals Hope
Permalink Sam Mellinger likes the Royals now that they've signed Juan Cruz: Greinke is just one reason Royals fans feel like they can dream a little. The division is weak. Cleveland lost CC Sabathia and his dots. Detroit looks lost. The White Sox are a year older. This is the spot where I'm supposed to say something bad about the Twins, so let's just move on. Pitching can take a team a long way. We'll see if the depth is really there once the season starts. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. How Long Does it Take to Learn to Bat Third?
Permalink Jose Reyes now has added incentive for the Dominican Republic to advance far in the World Baseball Classic. Jerry Manuel said Sunday that a lengthy absence from camp, such as reaching the March 23 finals at Dodger Stadium, wouldn't leave enough time to consider lineup alternatives such as Luis Castillo leading off and Reyes hitting third. What exactly is Manuel going to learn about Jose batting third in spring training? Either his batting stats work there, or they don't. His play in exhibition games isn't likely to tell Manuel a thing. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Sturdivant Passes
Permalink Tom Sturdivant died on Saturday: Before an arm injury in 1958 hampered him the rest of his career, the righthander was a rising star for Casey Stengel's teams. After pitching in 34 games almost exclusively in relief as a rookie in 1955, Sturdivant was moved into the starting rotation in 1956 and went 16-8 with a 3.30 ERA. With an above-average fastball and a devastating curve that earned him the nickname "Snake", Sturdivant led the AL with a 2.12 strikeouts-to-walks ratio (11-0/52). The Yankees of that era tended to use pitchers with high walk totals. New York was very good at turning the double play, so Casey tolerated the walks if his staff could induce ground balls. In 1957, Sturdivant's walks went up and his strikeouts went down, and he turned in even a better ERA. My thoughts go out to his family and friends. Extreme Small Samples
Permalink So far the competition for the Yankees centerfield job favors Brett Gardner. Of course, 10 at bats is pretty meaningless, but Melky Cabrera is facing the task of proving he belongs to stay in the majors. Any poor streak he suffers just reinforces his critics. Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. B.J. Blows Off WBC
Permalink B.J. Ryan won't pitch in the WBC: Ryan on Monday cited concerns about his mechanics and becomes the third relief pitcher in the last 24 hours to announce that he will miss at least the first round of the tournament. Minnesota's Joe Nathan pulled out entirely on Sunday, while Angels closer Brian Fuentes said he will miss the first set of games. Most of the other players I've seen say no offered pretty good reasons, usually recovery from injuries or their teams simply said no. If Ryan's mechanics are off, is that a sign of something deeper? Baseball Musings Pledge Drive
Permalink Four years ago Baseball Musings became a full time job. I hoped at the time that:
I asked you, the readers, to help kick start the effort, and you responded with a heartening $3000. In the following two years you responded each March with generous donations. Thanks to all who contributed, as well as to the thousands of readers, commentators and other blogs linking here that make the site a success. I want to especially thank Brian Borawski for acting as my agent those first few months, sending advertisers this way. Jamie and Chris Mottram promoted the pledge drive on their various Internet ventures over the years. Ray Garcia of TPSRadio.net invited me to broadcast a weekly radio show, which also helped expand the audience for Baseball Musings. Will Leitch of Deadspin sends lots of traffic this way as only he can. I'd also like to thank all my blogging buddies who sent readers this way during the pledge drives. I also thank the good people at Baseball Prospects and SportingNews.com for giving my writing a wider audience by publishing my work on their sites. A number of sport radio stations invite me to comment on baseball due to my exposure through those sites. Big media bloggers who link to Baseball Musings receive a tip of the hat as well. From my old friend Peter Gammons to the New York Times Bats journalist bloggers like Joe Christensen and Peter Abraham are redefining how beat reporters cover baseball, and they use the tools at Baseball Musings to help in their writing. So once again, I'm asking for your help. If you use the Day by Day Database (complete logs back to 1957), if you learn something from the Probabilistic Model of Range consider a donation. If you're a long time reader, if you found something useful through a Google search, even if you just like to come here and complain in the comments, please be part of this site with a contribution. Any amount is fine. If every individual who visits this site in March gives $1, Baseball Musings can be written full time for a year. If everyone donated $10, the money raised would sustain this site indefinitely.
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March 01, 2009
Santana Staying Put
Permalink With elbow feeling better and a heavy snow storm blowing into New York, the Mets are keeping Johan Santana in Florida. By the way, why does he need to go to New York for an MRI? Florida must have MRI machines, and can't someone just email the doctors the results? This is the age of rapid communications. The doctor should be able to examine the pictures on his I-Phone. Who Needs OBP?
Permalink Brandon Phillips isn't getting a lot of love from the Reds Blogoshpere right now. Both Redleg Nation and Red Reporter pick up on this story: "I don't believe that on-base percentage stuff. That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about." The good ones know what it is. A Compromise
Permalink Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras offered the Dodgers a compromise on the deferred money: "Our most recent offer Saturday morning covered two years with some deferred compensation ($43.5m net present value). Manny directed me to compromise between the Dodgers' last offer of $42 million net present value ($45 million with deferred compensation) and our $45 million without deferred money. However, we have yet to hear from them on our last three offers." Via Dodger Thoughts, who adds: Though they have made some public relations mistakes along the way, the Dodgers have proven they were right not to make an exorbitant offer back in November, right to make some concessions as the offseason passed and right to stand their ground when they needed to. If any other team wants Manny, now is the time to swoop in while the Dodgers decide how right they want to be. My guess is that Manny will be in a Dodger uniform very soon. Ramirez blinked, and that's all Los Angeles should need. Speed Zones
Permalink Yesterday I introduced a probabilistic model of the strike zone using PITCHf/x data. Today, I'd like to use that data to see how speed effects outcomes. The model is built on three parameters, the X and Z coordinates of where the ball crosses the plate and the handedness of the batter. A positive probability outcome is calculated for each set of parameters, positive from the pitcher's point of view. So any pitch that does not result in a ball or a hit credited to the batter is a positive outcome. For any set of pitches, the sum of the probabilities provides the expected number of positive outcomes. We can then compare that to the actual number of positive outcomes to see if the set of pitches was effective. Higher than expected positive outcomes indicate an effective set of pitches. Lower than expected positive outcomes indicate the opposite. For this study, pitches are divided into sets by speed, rounded to the nearest mile per hour (MPH). The following table shows the effectiveness of speed on pitches. The column definitions:
I did not expect this result. In general, I would have guessed that faster pitches would yield better results. This only appears to be true at very high speeds, however. Batters appears to find pitches thrown 97 MPH or better difficult to handle, but they have few problems with pitches in the low 90's. The most effective speeds for pitchers are between 75 and 85 MPH. Note, however, that in terms of percentage, high speed pitches produce more good outcomes than low speed pitches. Low speed pitches result in a better than expected outcomes for a given location. Getting batters to swing at pitches in the dirt will do that. This result seems to be in line with the idea that all major league batters can hit a fastball. How they hit the off-speed pitches, however, is what makes them a major league hitter. Twins fans should be very happy, given this data, that Francisco Liriano is bringing back his changeup. Competitive Negotiations
Permalink Jon Weisman suggests the Dodgers negotiations with Manny Ramirez stalled over more than deferred money: In any case, I think that the media's and the fans' continued focus on the deferred money issue obscures the real story. I understand completely why people think it matters, because it seems like a sign of instability. But I don't think it really matters. The real story is not about who can't afford what, but rather, how badly each party wants to win. If the problem is just deferred money, that's a problem that's easily fixed. Negotiations tend not to fall apart over something like when a player gets paid. If this is personal, as Weisman suggests, there's no telling what will be needed to bring the two sides together. In that case, any little problem becomes a reason not to agree. Shoulder Trouble
Permalink Jeremy Bonderman suffered a set back with his surgically repaired shoulder. Bless You Boys wonders how bad it might be: Remain calm, Leyland said, all is well. Bondo would instead pitch in a simulated game where coaches could watch him more closely, and his pitch count could be controlled exactly. (Such a strategy didn't look so bad after Dontrelle Willis pushed through 43 pitches on Friday.) The strange thing is, despite poor strikeout and walk numbers in 2008, Bonderman posted the 2nd best ERA of his career before succumbing to the injury. He's still very young. The Tigers seem willing not to rush the healing process, so there's still every reason to hope Bonderman fulfills his potential. Into the Snow
Permalink Johan Santana is headed to New York for more tests on his elbow. Given that the city might get a foot of snow, Johan better leave now. Fortunately, Santana says he fine: Santana threw approximately 31 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday, according to Newsday. He said he felt no discomfort after the throwing session. "I feel fine," Santana said, according to Newsday. "It's the first time in the last four days that I've thrown, but I feel good. I don't think there will be any problem." With a player of Santana's abilities, it is better to be safe than sorry. Not So Reliable Nathan
Permalink Joe Nathan pulled out of the WBC due to a sore acromioclavicular joint. There's no word on the seriousness of this, or if it was just a precaution. Love Cano
Permalink Via My Baseball Bias, Kat O'Brien returns from the Dominican republic with this word on Robinson Cano: We happened upon a bunch of kids practicing in San Pedro de Macoris, Robinson Cano's hometown. They were all wearing jerseys with Cano on the back, and a coach told me Cano had bought uniforms for the entire league - about 6,000 kids. He also bought two ambulances for the town. So he is really beloved there, the coach said even more so than fellow natives Sammy Sosa and Alfonso Soriano. What people like best is that Cano still comes back in winter, often sitting and watching kids play baseball on Saturdays. Here's O'Brien's full story on her trip to the DR, with video. A Tale of Two Elbows
Permalink Johan Santana believes the work he did to test his knee led to his current elbow irritation: Santana, who had arthroscopic surgery Oct. 1 on torn cartilage in his left knee, didn't think the tightness in his elbow was related to rushing back from the knee surgery too soon, but rather from overuse early in camp. However it happened, he has an irritated triceps tendon. Meanwhile, Johan's former teammate Francisco Liriano continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Liriano abandoned his fast slider and is rediscovering his changeup: Until he began flinging sliders with abandon, Liriano says, he had a changeup that buckled knees. "In '02, '03, changeup was my best pitch," the 25-year-old said. "When I learned to throw my slider, I stopped throwing it." There's a certain symmetry, then, that when Tommy John surgery forced him to stop throwing the kamikaze slider, he found his changeup again. Liriano began using it occasionally, to complement his fastball/slider fundamentals, last season, and kept working on it this winter. The fastball impresses, but it's often the changeup that makes a pitcher great. Only a Vowel Apart
Permalink What do Nick Punto and David Pinto have in common? Both are named after cars that explode! Bowden Resigns
Permalink Jim Bowden stepped down this morning from his post as general manager of the Washington Nationals: Bowden said, "It is an emotional decision that saddens me, but one that I feel is in the best interests of the two things I love most -- baseball and the Washington Nationals." I can't agree more. Let's hope the Nationals bring in someone who knows how to build a team. Fire Jim Bowden decided in favor of gloating: Then, I thought... screw that! Bodes is toast! Leatherpants is gone! No more ex-Reds! No more media showboating! No more toolsy outfielders who can't play! No more comparing B-level prospects to Tom Seaver and Mike Schmidt! No more Jim Bowden!!!!!!!!!!!! Bowden talked a good game but never delivered for the Nats. Update: The full statement by Bowden is here. Stan Kasten also issued a statement on the matter. |
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. The Boston Globe 
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. They now use run potentials to assign run values to +/- scores, and I think I can adapt something similar to the probabilistic model of range.
. He praises Tom Verducci's writing:
