July 16, 2008
Saving the Season
My latest SportingNews.com column looks at how many saves Francisco Rodriguez is likely to accrue the rest of the way. In doing so, I come up with a formula for predicting team saves from winning percentage and the average margin of victory.
Posted by David Pinto at
04:32 PM
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Great work! Very interesting.
Two questions:
1. Why do you assume the Angels will be a .600 team the rest of the way? I understand they've won 60% of their games thus far, but their preseason PECOTA W% was .525, their pythag is .524, and their third order W% is .505.
2. The above is true, of course, because they've won so many close games. As you say, their AMV from '05-'08 is 3.30; this year's 2.63 is obviously abnormally low, and seems unlikely to continue.
Interesting article. I guess the next stage would be working out a forumla for how many dollars those saves could translate into when K-Rod hits the free agent market!