Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 16, 2008
Saving the Season

My latest SportingNews.com column looks at how many saves Francisco Rodriguez is likely to accrue the rest of the way. In doing so, I come up with a formula for predicting team saves from winning percentage and the average margin of victory.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:32 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Great work! Very interesting.

Posted by: Alex at July 16, 2008 06:50 PM

Two questions:

1. Why do you assume the Angels will be a .600 team the rest of the way? I understand they've won 60% of their games thus far, but their preseason PECOTA W% was .525, their pythag is .524, and their third order W% is .505.

2. The above is true, of course, because they've won so many close games. As you say, their AMV from '05-'08 is 3.30; this year's 2.63 is obviously abnormally low, and seems unlikely to continue.

Posted by: Vegas Watch at July 16, 2008 07:32 PM

Interesting article. I guess the next stage would be working out a forumla for how many dollars those saves could translate into when K-Rod hits the free agent market!

Posted by: Matt Smith at July 17, 2008 06:02 AM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?