June 09, 2005
The Return of Johan Santana
Last night's performance by Johan Santana is what we've come to expect from the Cy Young award winner. Nine inning, nine strikeouts, no walks, no runs. It's not that Santana is pitching badly this year; it just seems like he's giving up more runs than he should. His DIPS ERA confirms this. He should be dominant rather than very good.
The difference between this year and last is that Santana is allowing hits with men in scoring position. In 2004, opponents hit just .165 with men in scoring position, slugging a mere .264. This year they're hitting .276 and slugging .483. So not only are they getting more hits, but they're driving runners futher with power. It's not a very big sample; it's offered as an explanation. Good luck in this situation brought him an award last year. Poor luck this season might put it in other hands.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:19 AM
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Keep in mind too that Santana struggled through the first few months last year as well...as of June 9, 2004, he had a 5.12 ERA, and had struck out 71 vs. 23 walks...and he finished the season with a 2.61 ERA, 265 Ks and 54 BBs. This year as of June 9 it's 3.31 with 114 Ks and 11 walks...if last year's pattern of a slow start followed by a lights-out finish repeats itself....yikes.
Apples and oranges on defense too...
His main problem this year has been a bad case of First Inningitis, otherwise known as Radke's Disease. Opponents are hammering him at a .353/.370/.706 clip in the 1st inning, compared to .215/.240/.392 overall. (Pitches 1-15 are even worse, .432/.450/.892.) He didn't have this problem at all in 2004. BTW, Radke's 1st innings have been even worse than Johan's in 2005: .400/.403/.800.