Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
December 04, 2003
Gordon vs. Quantrill

Just wanted to respond to one of the comments to the post about the Yankees acquistion of Paul Quantrill.

I'm a little surprised at the reaction, but maybe just because I've watched Quantrill be quite effective over the past year, and haven't seen much of Gordon. If my quick addition is correct, over the past two years Gordon and Quantrill have given up the same number of hits, while Gordon has walked 23 more people. (Gordon has five more innings pitched.) I think it isn't a sure thing that relatively poor infield defense will give up 23 more groundball hits over roughly 150 innings than will good defense. Gordon might work out betterthan will Quantrill, but I'm not sure the difference will be great enough to be excited about the one acquisition but not the other.

We can use my probabilistic model of range to help answer this, at least for 2003.

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Tom Gordon 124.6 0.692 124.0 0.689 -0.00332
Paul Quantrill 156.4 0.686 166.0 0.728 0.04219

So, at least last year, balls put into play against Gordon were easier to field. Quantrill had a much better defense behind him. I could easily see the +10 outs for Quantrill going to a -10 outs with the Yankees. The many fewer balls in play against Gordon should lead to more success for him.

Of course, if the Yankees realize this, they'll only use Quantrill in bases empty situations, where a single isn't going to score a run, and Gordon with men in scoring position, where the strikeout is more helpful.

Update: Here's the table just for ground balls:

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Tom Gordon 58.2 0.737 58.0 0.734 -0.00297
Paul Quantrill 82.4 0.749 89.0 0.809 0.05972

This shows that Quantrill's boost came from the Dodgers doing a good job of fielding his grounders. It's also interesting to note that while balls in play against Gordon were easier to field overall, Quantrill's groundballs were easier to field than Gordon's.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:53 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)