Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
August 21, 2007
Webb Versus Hershiser

Jacob at Vegas Watch to ask if we set the odds too high for Webb breaking the record for consecutive scoreless innings because if he keeps the streak alive Wednesday night, he'll go for the record at PETCO Park. I'd say PETCO and Chase Field probably even themselves out, but yes, if he can shut out the Brewers on Wednesday, PETCO should certainly help him set the record.

Which made me think of this streak versus Hershier's. Orel had it pretty easy park wise during his run. The only stadium unfriendly to pitchers over those games was Atlanta. So six of his seven games while setting the record were in pitcher friendly parks.

Webb, on the other hand, has to pitch half his games at a good stadium for offense, although he's only been home twice during the streak so far. But he's also visited Atlanta, giving him three tough parks to Hershiser's one. Tomorrow night will be four. (I'm not counting Wrigley, since only the first inning of the streak happened there.)

Update: Here's the latest odds of Webb breaking the record from Vegas Watch, taking into account the run scoring tendencies of the stadiums.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:23 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Atlanta's a tough park for pitchers? So far this year baseball-reference.com rates it at 97/98, same as last year. That's a slight edge to the hurlers. The park has bounced around a little in its history but has never strayed far from neutral. Webb won't get a lot of help from the park, but he won't be hurt by it, either.

PETCO is a gift to Webb, though it has become very slightly less pitcher-friendly the past couple years.

Posted by: Casey Abell at August 21, 2007 10:40 AM

Got the verb tenses wrong. Webb didn't get a lot of help from Turner Field, but he wasn't hurt by it, either.

Posted by: Casey Abell at August 21, 2007 10:44 AM

Arizona's park has almost always favored the hitters, and sometimes markedly so. This year it's rated at 107/106, just a shade less pitcher-hostile than Cincinnati and Denver.

Posted by: Casey Abell at August 21, 2007 10:47 AM

There's another flaw in the way you calculated the odds of him beating Hershiser's streak.

Using RA/9.0 underestimates his ability to throw a scoreless inning because it assumes the pitcher can only put up 1s and 0s. In reality, allowing crooked numbers inflates RA without changing the number of scoreless innings pitched.

Example:
Suppose a pitcher pitches the following innings: 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0. Your model says he has a 0% chance to throw a scoreless inning.

Posted by: maynard at August 21, 2007 02:18 PM

An update on the http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/022403.php post takes care of that problem. The odds are adjusted to a 1 in 80 shot by using Webb's proportion of innings with runs (40) to total innings (185) as an estimate of his probability of giving up a run or more in any given inning (40/185=.2162, P(scoreless)=1-0.2162=0.7838). Thus, the probability of another 18 scoreless innings given the above probability of any inning being scoreless is P(record)=(0.7838)^18=0.01246, a 1.2%.

Posted by: Ryne at August 21, 2007 03:12 PM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?