Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 22, 2004
Mind Game

John Geer sent me the link to this fascinating story on how the Orioles are using a psychological test to help them choose players to draft and trade.


Frank Marcos, head of the Major League Scouting Bureau, said, "As popular as [psychological testing] is, I'm not sure many teams go as in depth as Baltimore. They're at the forefront."

Why have the Orioles jumped in so deep? They believe Ritterpusch's conclusions are a breakthrough.

"The test isn't new, but the interpretation is new," Flanagan said.

Personnel executives have long believed that desire was a key to success; teams that used psychological tests did so primarily to identify that quality.

But Ritterpusch startlingly contends drive is less important than several other qualities.

"The old cliche about 'the guy who wants it the most will get it' - it's a myth," he said.

Winslow, the test's godfather, is surprised and impressed.

"Dave has taken this beyond what anyone else has done in baseball," Winslow said. "It's a step beyond conventional research. He has found specific and valid correlations between the data and why pitchers are succeeding and failing. And not just pitchers in general, but starters and relievers. He has broken it down that far.

"I have seen what he has done. It isn't a hypothesis."


It appears that the Orioles have done with this test what Beane and DePodesta did with batted ball locations. They have figured out which psychological attributes are most important for success. So given two players with the same overall ability, the Orioles are now going to take the one with the higher psych scores.

This underscores my point about there being many different ways to win baseball games. This is sabermetrics of a different form. It's another way to find good young talent, and young talent is cheap talent. How long the Orioles will have this edge is unclear, but it seems to be working for the Twins and the Braves.

The AL East is certainly becoming the test bed for how to win. You have the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles all trying new things. In front of them is the prize, the New York Yankees. If one of these upstarts can unseat the king, acceptance of these methods won't be far behind.


Posted by David Pinto at 11:31 AM | Management | TrackBack (2)
Comments

Yeah, the $125 million dollar Red Sox are "Upstarts". If Red Sox fans really want to be underdogs then whack down the pay roll to $80 mil. Otherwise you are just as bad as the Yankees.

Posted by: Joe at February 22, 2004 02:14 PM

Sounds like they are trying to find a way to quantify that mysterious" Chemistry" that has been discussed here, and at Bambino's Curse recently.

Posted by: Lobster Larry at February 22, 2004 02:25 PM

Joe - does it hurt to be that stupid? There is a very clear difference, a whole large market team's worth, between the two teams' payrolls. When you play in the division with the Yankees you have to try and beat them.

Posted by: Matt Davis at February 22, 2004 03:30 PM

Sorry, was wrong. I worked it out logically. Here goes.

Syllogism:
Premise 1: 4 is greater than 2.
Premise 2: 7 is greater than 2.
Conclusion: 4 equals 7.

My apologies.

Posted by: Matt Davis at February 22, 2004 03:57 PM

Interesting thoughts on the Orioles. I'm not sure I agree with the conclusions here, though, specifically the notion that "how long the Orioles will have this edge is unclear." Shouldn't we at least wait a few years to see the fruit of their labors...i.e., whether they finally start producing some real ballplayers with their system...before declaring this an "edge"? It might just be that the Orioles are using something they think gives them an edge, but in essence does nothing of the kind. Color me skeptical.

Posted by: Rob at February 23, 2004 12:04 AM