Baseball Musings: Should He Stay or Should He Go?

September 23, 2008

Should He Stay or Should He Go?

Dugout Central presents two viewpoints on Brian Cashman staying with the Yankees. Steve Caimano takes the pro-Cashman position:

The first big story of the Yankees' off-season will be their decision on General Manager Brian Cashman, and that decision should be to pay him big dollars to stay. Cashman is one of the best GMs in the game, and he has been hardened by his years of operating under the microscope in New York. There is really no chance that the Yankees could find a replacement for him who would be able to come in and operate the team at his level. Beyond that, he has clearly set the team on a course that will ensure that their "rebuilding" is really more of a "reloading."

I don't agree that Cashman can't be replaced. There are plenty of bright young people in baseball who are more than capable of putting together a winning organization. There might even be some who can handle the New York press. Caimano's main point, however, is that Cashman deserves the time to finish the job he started when he took full control of the team.

Scott Jensen, however, uses an economic argument to decide Cashman must go. (See the link for the graph.)

What we would expect to see is a variant of a U-curve, where initially, as a young and more inexpensive championship team matures and demands greater pay, the bang for the buck trend would decrease. We would then expect the curve eventually to bottom out as veterans pass their peak and overall performance decreases while costs remain high. Finally, we would expect the ratio to increase with an influx of new, cheaper players and better results.
Instead, what we've seen is an overall downward trend since 1998.

My problem with this analysis is that the Yankees talent held their value for a long time. It's tough to replace Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera if they don't decline. In other words, part of the problem was that the Yankees aged well. That still doesn't excuse long term contracts to Mo and Jorge last off-season, but the core veterans are good performers. That U-turn could be just around the corner.

I think Cashman proves that even with a lot of money, winning isn't as easy as it looks. Failure for the Yankees comes at a very high level of play relative to other clubs, so despite a good season, Brian finds his job on the line. Whatever the outcome this winter, I suspect he'll do just fine. Any new job has to be easier than the one he has now.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:38 AM | Management | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I'll ask the same question as about Girardi - what would he have to have done to be considered a failure? If Girardi couldn't win with the team Cashman assembled then is it Cashman's fault? They have nearly unlimited resources and every time they lose someone they're combing the waiver wire for a replacement. As near as I can tell they've brought up 2 productive top level players in the last 13 years in Wang and Soriano. Joe Torre will be the happiest guy in baseball when the playoffs start.

Posted by: Bandit at September 23, 2008 02:42 PM

Generally I've been a Cashman fan, but I'm beginning to have my doubts. Bandit's right: the Yanks have a lousy track record at developing major-league talent in recent years. I can't lay that directly at Cashman's feet, but he's the guy in charge.

Also, he has a decidedly mixed record of free-agent signings. And the Yankees are often short of reserve talent -- weak benches, short bullpens, and a dearth of replacement-level plug-ins at triple-A.

Then there's the 2008 team, a mismatched roster if ever I saw one. The Yankees were highly dependent on young pitchers, but they had an aging lineup and a poor defense. The aging lineup would mandate a win-now approach; young pitchers are a sign of a building process. (It's very rare to have multiple young pitchers establish themselves on the major-league level in a single season.) The aging lineup also means poor defense; the Yanks are below average at every position except 3B and C. That's a heavy burden to place on a pitching staff.

Cashman also entered the 2008 season short on insurance pitchers. For a tiny fraction of his total payroll, he could have had better fallback positions. Why not Bartolo Colon? Why pass on a deadline trade for Paul Byrd? They're not world-beaters, but they're better than Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner.

In light of 2008, my view of Cashman has changed from "one of the best" to "something to prove."

Posted by: jvwalt at September 23, 2008 04:52 PM

Hey Bandit..you might want to make that Wang and Cano. Soriano was a free agent signing from Japan.
JVW got it right. I'll take it a step further though. What exactly has Cashman done to improve upon the job Bob Watson did? I say little. Chuck Knobl..was his. What else worked his way? Pavano?..Wright?..Vasquez?..Leiber?..Weaver?..Kevin Brown?..Wells part2?..Igawah?..Randy Johnson?...etc. What a laughable list.
Then there's this gaffe.....The Yankees have not produced a pitcher who's done anything worth speaking of outside of Guidry..Righetti..Pettitte...and Wang. That's it! In 35 years under The Boss, 4 starting pitchers. The Yanks don't farm pitchers, they pay for them at a premium. Look what they did with Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughs and Joba. They couldn't be patient with the kids and let them develope. No, instead they openened up their Christmas presents early and broke them all. Now they have nothing to play with. Whaaa is all I hear. That's what happens to spoiled brats. Sorry, it's the truth.
The Boss era is ended. The Yanks need a new business model,- a new way of operating. That's all, nothing malicious on my part.
Brian Cashman wants to enact that change and for that should be kept on. Hank The Yank has ideas of getting the band in Tampa back together again to circumvent Cashman's insistance of centralized power. Team Tamper from Tampa....meet the new boss....same as the old Boss.

Posted by: Leco at September 23, 2008 06:07 PM

Soriano signed as a minor leaguer and came up from Columbus as a SS. Cano is not now a top level player - .299 OBP and well below average 2B. That being said - I'm sure there's a lot of pressure in NYY but still they have every possible advantage except having to fill the highest expectations. It's not like it's KC or Pitt.

Posted by: bandit at September 23, 2008 06:32 PM

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