March 05, 2007
Extending Carlos Guillen
Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog makes a good case for extending Carlos Guillen through 2011:
Most importantly, the Tigers have a window of opportunity right now. They have a mix of secured veteran talent who have a couple years left in them, as well as some young talent under club control for the next couple years. There is $66 million already committed for 2008 and $58 million for 2009. But after that existing contracts lighten as the Tigers prepare for the impending free agency of Bonderman in 2011 and Verlander in 2012. I know the Tigers don't want to hurt themselves with a bad contract, and that they already have one in Magglio Ordonez, but they will have flexiblity come 2010.
The Tigers need to capitalize on the next few years. If it means paying Carlos Guillen in 2010 and 2011 to keep him a part of the team in 2008 and 2009 I think it the Tigers have to do it. There just aren't alternatives available, unless you want to put all your eggs in a potential Alex Rodriguez basket.
The other option would be to find a team that's willing to trade a prospect that's close to major league ready for pitching, similar to the deal the Marlins and Red Sox made last year. Of course, the result of that deal may make teams a little gun shy about pulling the trigger on such a deal again.
Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive in March.
Given the fact that the Tigers are built around young pitching, I don't really agree with the notion that they have to win now. Sure, they'll have some older players to replace; but given the productivity of the farm system, they should have plenty of replacements and/or trade bait.
As for Guillen... is he asking for a big, Michael Young-type contract? I don't know. I'd be willing to give him big money on a 2-year deal, or fewer dollars and more years, but nothing like 80 mil over 5 years. Given his age and injury history, Guillen is a high risk to decline very soon. (We tend to forget that most players see significant declines and lose their jobs in their early 30s.) And there's already talk of moving him away from SS, which would decrease his offensive value.
