April 29, 2008
Fewer Pitchers, More Strategy
With the acquisition of Frank Thomas, the Athletes are carrying fourteen position players. Bob Geren is making the most of his flexibility:
The A's pitching staff has made it possible, with starters getting deep into games and the bullpen working efficiently. Meanwhile, manager Bob Geren is making the most of having an extra position player, employing almost National League-type strategy. He used three pinch hitters Saturday, and Sunday, Geren sent out two pinch-runners at the same time, which is unusual.
"It was like a line change in hockey," reliever Andrew Brown said. "Next it will be a flying V."
The Athletics are third in the AL in runs per game at 4.96. Now they're using a good pitching staff to leverage their offense with an extra bench player. It's just another example of a well run organization.
Posted by David Pinto at
08:25 AM
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There hangs a tale from that 4.96 number. (Don't you love numbers with tales hanging?) And it's not just that Oakland's offense has been much better than expected.
What's really telling is that a team can place third in the AL with a 4.96 runs per game average. Right now the overall average for AL teams is 4.52 runs per game. If the number stays around there the rest of the season, it would be easily the lowest average since 1992.
Something happened after the 1992 season. Cynics will say steroids, but I doubt that the sudden, big jump in offense in both leagues in 1993 resulted from a sudden rush of chemical assistance.
I think the ball was juiced, not the players, and baseball decided to stick with the higher offense after the disastrous 1994 players' strike. This was a wise decision, by the way, similar to the equally important and correct decision to allow Ruth to lead the game to much higher scoring levels after the equally disastrous Black Sox scandal.
Since 1993 the average AL team has often scored more than five runs a game. Last year, even with constant steroid testing, the average was 4.90. Could the worm finally be turning back towards the pitchers this year?
I'm not sure. Offense started out slow last year but eventually got back to fairly typical post-1992 levels. It's still cold in much of the country, and the ball is not carrying well. The NL hasn't seen a particularly large decline in offense, though the league is at the low end of the post-1992 range.
Let's check back in July.
Pitching has shifted from 1/9th to about half of your team. More pitchers means more rest. More rest means better endurance and stuff. Good pitching usually beats good hitting. Ergo, we are approaching a new dead-ball era.
It took about 2 weeks for the league SLG to get above .400 and that's where you should look to see the weather effect. Cold weather doesn't affect batting average as much as it does affect how hard you will hit the ball.
This season has been especially weird. The Rays are showing signs of life, Arizona is playing like last year but with the run differential to support it, New York is sinking, and Roger Clemens is still making headlines by not pitching. Good times to be a fan.
With most teams loading up their bullpens -- the Brewers are carrying 14 pitchers, I believe -- I've been wondering about the tactical opportunities lost when you have a very short bench. You have such limited opportunities to pinch-hit, pinch-run, and double-switch.
Is the defensive advantage of having seven, eight, or nine relievers really greater than the offensive advantage of having a deep bench? It's a question worth asking. And it may be another instance of Billy Beane finding small edges by going against commonly-accepted practice.
I tend to think that offensive levels will return to "normal" post-1992 levels eventually, as the weather improves. Of course, that means somewhat above-average levels for all seasons since the AL began in 1901. In fact, the majors are a bit above that average now. As I said, let's check back in July.
Does an extra position player shuffling into games make a significant difference? It is an interesting question. If anything, the extra position guy might make his biggest impact by forcing a manager to stay longer with his starters. It may come down to whether those starters can maintain their performance level, which is hopefully better than middle relievers, over the increased workload.
See my comment on the Lowe and Penny post above.
Really, it may all come down to the stat traditionally associated with Beane and Oakland: OBP. The A's are currently fifth in the league in OBP, and eleven points higher than the AL average. Which is probably better than most pundits expected.
Their slugging average is considerably below league average, which is not surprising considering their park. If the A's want to maintain their current level of offensive production, they'll just have to keep putting more guys on base than the average club.