Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
August 22, 2005
Pattern Recognition

Paul Snyder became the newest member of the Braves Hall of Fame over the weekend. He's he scout that's most responsible for the talent that kept the Braves on top of their divisions for so many years. Of course, the article has to mention Moneyball.

In this “Moneyball” era, where some clubs have begun to place statistical analysis over the word of scouts in the field, Snyder describes the traditionalist value of the trained and experienced eye. He took part in some seminal moments that redirected the Braves.

Here's an example:

Snyder went to Curacao to watch a 15-year-old Andruw Jones and experienced a transcendent moment, when the kid sprinted around first before skidding to halt. Snyder could not rid himself of the image — “Oh, my God, that looks like Roberto Clemente!” — jamming his spikes to the same abrupt stop.

Both Snyder and statistical analysis GMs are trying to solve pattern recognition problems. They analyze data, compare it to data from the past, and based on those comparisons try to predict the future. There are situations where people do this just as well if not better than a computer. There's a passage in Juicing the Game describing how Barry Bonds wowed his all-star teammates one year by calling the type of each pitch as it left the pitcher's hand. Wayne Gretsky could stand behind his team's net, see how the players were arranged on the ice and know where to skate and where to pass to score a goal. People can be very good at these problems.

What we don't know about Snyder, however, is his failure rate. Gretsky and Bonds reside at the pinnacles of their sports. We can measure their pattern recognition success. What this article doesn't tell us is how many time he saw someone who looked like Clemente that turned out to be a dud. I'm willing to bet, however, that John Schuerholz does know the answer, and that's why Snyder received this honor.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:52 AM | Management | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Sooner or later the scouts were going to strike back at Moneyball. I've even heard some talk about the subject from various announcers on Extra Innings. Mostly, they take the compromise route: use scouts AND statistical analysis.

By the way, the pictures of Rachel Wacholder are getting more cheesecake all the time. The current sweaty, frontal view is the cheesiest yet. Please continue!

Posted by: Casey Abell at August 22, 2005 09:07 AM
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