November 16, 2008
Quote of the Day
Doug Melvin doesn't understand the Yankees bid for CC Sabathia:
"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"
Because, Doug, if they offered $110 million you might bid again. This way, they drive out all of the teams that can't afford $140 million, and see who's left. This leaves the Yankees with a lot less work to do. Since Sabathia is probably worth around $27 million a year, or $162 million over six years, the Yankees just took the bidding up to a decent level where it will move along faster.
Melvin should bid $150 million for six years. In all likelihood, the Yankees will top that. So Doug gets to look like a hero to the Milwaukee fans for being willing to spend top dollar on Sabathia without shelling out any money, plus he forces the Yankees to bid higher.
If all the other teams are scared away by New York's offer, the Yankees get Sabathia cheap. If they take part in incremental bidding, however, there's a chance another team breaks it's limit on CC. If someone bid $125 million, then $135 million, maybe they feel they've invested so much time in trying to obtain Sabathia's services that they are willing to break their $140 million limit and go to $145 or $150 million. If, however, that limit is met with the first bid, there's no reason to even get started. So by trying to drive out all the other bidders, the Yankees might actually save money over using Melvin's rational strategy.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:02 AM
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What's doubly funny is that Doug Melvin was GM of the Rangers when they signed A-Rod. I know Tom Hicks took care of most of the negotiations, but that set the bar for overbidding.
Rumor has it CC won't just accept the top offer, so your hypothetical of Milwaukee offering $150 wouldn't be something to risk if they can't afford it. CC may accept it over the higher offer.
@ Boomer: Which could also be why the Yanks wanted to make sure their offer was FAR more than Mil's.
If I had to put a dollar amount on CC, it'd be 6 years for a total of $155 million, so I'm basically thinking in the same terms Dave is in the process of bidding.
why would you offer $140 million?
Because they can.
I don't get it.
Why would a team be willing to spend more than $140M if the Yankees had started by offering $110M, but suddenly not willing if the Yankees just started the bidding at $140 (like they did)? If I think Sabathia is worth $150M over 6 years, then I'll be willing to spend that much, regardless of what the Yankees throw out there. Similarly, if I think he's worth $120M, then I won't be willing to bid anything higher than that, even if I've already beat a bid of $110M. Unless we think baseball GMs are basically 3rd graders who, once they start after something suddenly think its more valuable than before, there's no reason for the Yankees to bid this much unless they assume it would get near that range anyways.
Personally, I think the Yankees did "over-bid" in the sense that the Brewers wouldn't have spent that much on him. But I do think Sabathia's worth that much to the Yankees, and I also think he wants extra money if he's going to play for the Yankees rather than another team that may be preferable to him for some reason.