Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 16, 2005
Short or Long Term?

Dontrelle Willis' agent isn't optimistic about a long term contract as Willis becomes eligible for arbitration.

"I'm expecting it to be a one-year deal,'' he said Tuesday. "They don't have a history of doing these types of (long-term) deals (to arbitration-eligible players). My guess is if they haven't done it before, they won't do it now.''

Sosnick, who said he hasn't had any recent conversations with the Marlins, said he has been reading media reports about the team trying to trade key players because of financial problems. Sosnick expects to talk with the team after Thanksgiving, but he said it is too early to determine if he will reach a one-year contract without taking Willis' case to an arbitration hearing.

This is exactly the kind of situation the Cleveland Indians handled so well in the early 1990s. The offered long term contracts to their young players, locking in salary rates early. They avoided arbitration and the costs associated with that. They avoided losing their players to free agency in their primes. Cleveland was able to trade contracts for talent rather than dumping money, because the players were paid a reasonable amount of money.

According to the article, Willis will earn about $4 million next year if he goes to arbitration. Why not offer him $30 million for five years now? The risk, as the Marlins see it, is that Dontrelle blows his arm out and they pay out a lot of money for nothing. But if he continues to pitch well, they end up shelling out a lot more money in 2007 and 2008 as arbitration ratchets up his value, then they lose him to free agency. If the bet pays off, they get a very good pitcher cheap.

It's a good deal for Dontrelle as well. Even if he blows his arm out, he's set for life. And if he puts together five good years, he'll be young enough to get an even bigger payday as a free agent.

Can Cabrera go to arbitration also? If so, the Marlins should work a similar deal with him. Lock up these two budding superstars for the next five years and the team has a very good chance of great run in the NL.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:30 AM | Management | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I'm surprised that more teams don't work out more contracts of the type David describes. I suppose that the injury factor is an issue for pitchers, and hitters could go all Eric Hinske, but it still seems like a better risk/reward ratio than wading through arbitration year after year...then losing the player to free agency right when he hits his prime. Of all the teams out there right now likely to broker these sorts of deals, I think Cleveland and its management appear the best candidates.

Posted by: Dave S. at November 16, 2005 09:16 AM

Slightly off topic, but the book Licensed to Deal centered on Matt Sosnik, Willis' agent, and I found it quite entertaining, probably the best of the last half dozen baseball books I've read.

Posted by: Michael at November 16, 2005 09:47 AM

$30 million for 5 years would be a steal. And yet, I think you're right; both parties would probably go for it, and would be happy doing so.

Posted by: Mike at November 16, 2005 09:59 AM

The Marlins should take a look at what the A's have done with their young pitchers. Each of the Big Three and now Rich Harden and Danny Haren were signed to long-term deals and the A's got maximum value out of the Big Three deals. They got their best years and then traded them (or, at least, the first two) when the salaries got too big. The Hudson deal is, so far, a bust, but that Mulder deal was worth double and the A's got plus value from each of those pitchers when they were with the team. For Florida, who is in almost the same financial situation as Oakland, not to follow this model is assinine. Oakland has done much the same thing with many of their young position players, with pretty good success.

The only time the A's have gotten really burned with the long-term deals for young players (thus far) has been with Terrence Long (and even then they were able to ship him and Ramon Hernandez for Mark Kotsay) and Ben Grieve (and he was traded to Tampa in the Damon, Ellis, Lidle deal).

Posted by: Melissa at November 16, 2005 03:15 PM

As an aside, the other part of the equation with Dontrelle is that you get one of the best ambassador's of the game. I absolutely love watching Dontrelle play the game and he handle's everything with supreme class.

Posted by: Nate at November 16, 2005 08:27 PM
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