December 01, 2007
Santana Poker
It looks like the Yankees saw the Red Sox bet and raised them:
The Twins reportedly informed the Yankees they were prepared to deal Santana to the Red Sox unless the 21-year-old Hughes was part of the deal. Fearing Santana would join Josh Beckett to give their rivals two aces, the Yankees decided to put Hughes on the table.
After hearing from the Yankees, the Twins asked the Red Sox for pitching prospect Clay Buchholz, but the Red Sox refused to part with Buchholz, according to the New York Post.
Ellsbury is also a sticking point. If the Red Sox were to include Ellsbury in a package for Santana, the Twins would probably be required to expand the deal and that is not likely either.
Posted by David Pinto at
06:09 PM
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Doyle Brunson just went all in with ten-deuce. Hey, it worked twice before.
Is it just me or is neither of the offers -- both of which amount to a young injury-danger pitcher, a mediocre center fielder and a minor leaguer -- worthy of the best pitcher in baseball?
It's just you, Mike. Personally, I don't think Santana is worth even Hughes and Cabrera. The Yankees have no one who can replace Melky right now (he's their only legitimate outfielder), and there's every chance Hughes, in the prime of his career, would be worth at nearly as much to the Yankees as Santana, who's approaching his declining years. I don't think there's much chance Santana could end up being another Kevin Brown, but I had hoped the Yankees had finally gotten over their self-destructive compulsion to over-pay for aging pitching talent.
If the Yankees are giving up Hughes, there's not a lot more for the Twins to screw the Yankees out of. Forcing the Yankees to include Hughes is probably Boston's best case scenario.
Why do people think Santana's going to hit a decline phase?
He's 28 years old, with no significant injury history, and is actually fairly efficient for a high-strikeout pitcher - he just doesn't waste pitches. Despite throwing at least 219 innings in each of the last four years, he doesn't show up on a highly abused pitcher list - in fact, the Twins have had a pretty good to great bullpen for most of the last five years, so they haven't had to milk innings out of him.
If he gets a six-year contract, he'll still only be 34 at the end. He could very well end up underpaid at $20M/yr if the market keeps going up the way it has the last three years, even if he just repeats his 2006 season (his "worst" of the last four years)!
And people are worried about giving up talent whose upside is being a slight asset at CF?
Hughes for Santana is light years better than Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.
And keep in mind, Melky is, I believe, below replacement value. His career OPS is
Hughes is still an unknown quantity--Santana is only 28 and has thrown over 1300 innings at an adjusted ERA+ of 141 (14th best all time, 5th best among active starters and best among active left handers). This could end up being an unlucky trade (Santana blows out his arm, Hughes blossoms into the second coming of The Rocket), but if a GM operates under the assumption that the worst case scenario is going to happen, he'll never make any moves. It's a good deal for the Yankees.
I will say it one more time; Trading Hughes for Santana is a huge mistake. The Yankees need to get rid of that idiot they call a "pitching coach" Guidry.
The Yankees did get rid of Guidry.
Dave Eiland is the new pitching coach.