Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 22, 2006
The Coco Crispiest Deal

The Boston Herald reports that the Red Sox and Indians agreed to a deal for outfielder Coco Crisp. The deal, however, is contingent on the Indians finding a replacement for their left fielder:

According to baseball sources, the Red Sox and Cleveland Indians have agreed in principle on a deal that will bring outfielder Crisp to the Sox in a multi-player trade. The deal was agreed upon several days ago under the condition that Cleveland be able to acquire another outfielder to replace Crisp, presumably Jason Michaels from the Philadelphia Phillies.

It's unknown if Snap, Crackle and Pop are included in the deal. The Herald also notes that the Sox are about to sign Alex Gonzalez (the one from the Marlins) to play shortstop. Red Sox fans who were so excited about getting Andy Marte won't get to see him play, as he and Mota are rumored to be part of the deal for Crisp.

Big caveat, this is all from unnamed sources and should be treated with skepticism.

Crisp and Gonzalez should improve the Red Sox defense. However, neither is much of an offensive player. I disagree that Crisp should step into the lead off spot. His career OBA is .332, and over the last two seasons he's been in the mid .340s. That's fine for a good glove man, but it's not what you want at the top of the order. The Herald projects the lineup to be:

Crisp, cf; Mark Loretta, 2b; David Ortiz, dh; Manny Ramirez, lf; Jason Varitek, c; Trot Nixon, rf; Mike Lowell, 3b; Kevin Youkilis, 1b; Gonzalez, ss.

They're probably better off with some combination of Lorretta, Nixon or Youkilis leading off. If this trade is real, it appears the Red Sox are following the White Sox model of improvement through defense and pitching at the cost of some offense.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:35 AM | Trades | TrackBack (0)
Comments

So, assuming it would have cost 48/4 to sign Damon, and assuming that Crisp will cost them about 15 million over 4 years (is that about right?),
the deals would shake out as something like this:

Damon,3 years of Renteria (saving 19 million) and Mota for

Crisp, 2 years of AGonzalez (if the deal reaaly is 2/10) and Julian Tavarez and $42 million.

Please correct my math if I'm wrong, but I think you have to do that deal. Unless you go blow the money on guys like Byung Kim. On the other hand, the chip that drove that deal (Marte) might be the most valuable one of all. To me, the Indians -- who I'm sure weren't inclined to help one of their wild-card competitors without ripping somebody off -- probably made the best deal of all.

Posted by: pvm at January 22, 2006 09:23 AM

The Herald writer just shows a total lack of knowledge about what is needed for the top of the line up or for that matter the follow up to a #9 hitter durung the game.

Posted by: Jim OBrien at January 22, 2006 09:45 AM

PVM,

I have not problem with these moves. The Red Sox got younger in centerfield and saved money. They lost offense and gained defense. What I believe, however is that the Red Sox will score fewer runs in 2006 than in 2005. Last year, they outscored their opponents by 105 runs. In general, increasing that gap increases your winning percentage. I'm not convinced that the loss in run production is going to be covered by improved pitching and defense. But it's certainly a reasonable course to try.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 22, 2006 09:45 AM

A cereal pun, after all these years Coco's been around? Toucan do better.

Posted by: Dennis at January 22, 2006 10:07 AM

Actually, it was a homage to an episode of Barney Miller.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 22, 2006 10:26 AM

I don't like this simply because they are trading arguably the best prospect in Major League Baseball for Coco Crisp. If Marte's not number 1, then he's in the top 5. And I think there's little doubt that he'll be an excellent Major Leaguer. If I were the Sox, I would rather see Marte than Lowell out there next year. But now Marte moves to Cleveland, if this deal goes through. So long, Aaron Boone.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at January 22, 2006 10:41 AM

Benjamin, is Marte really that highly-rated a prospect? Or did he take a significant hit as a propect from last year to this year? I mean he only netted Edgar Rent-a-Wreck in one deal, and is now only going to get Crisp in another. It seems that most teams think he took a step back. You wouldn't even think about trading King Felix for either of these guys.

Posted by: Nick at January 22, 2006 10:57 AM

David,

Spoken like a true Yankee fan. The numbers you cite include those accumulated when Crisp was 22-23. He showed improvement at 24 and, again, at 25. He was a better offensive player than the guy he replaces last year, and, now, entering his prime and, at the same time, moving to a ballpark that boosts the offense of left handed hitters by 30-40 ops points, Crisp figures over the next four years to put up an obp in the .375-.385 area and an OPS in the .850 range. Having gotten the prime years of Damon's career, the Sox are now poised to get the best years of Crisp's, saving $20 million in the process. I'd call that brilliant.

As for what they gave up, Crisp is a proven major league player who fills a current need very well; Marte, while a top prospect, does not address the team's needs. Is Marte any better a prospect today than Sean Burroughs and Corey Patterson were five years ago?

Posted by: Wayne at January 22, 2006 11:09 AM

Wayne, I hope you remember Jeff Bagwell. Don't want any second guessing.

Posted by: TOC1918 at January 22, 2006 11:16 AM

I wouldn't be suprised if Boston papers require an IQ test for sports writers---anyone with an IQ over 80 is disqualified. Though, we are talking about the team that put Renteria at #2, when he should have been #8 or 9, so I wouldn't be too surprised if the Sox follow Massarotti's advice.

Well, if it's Crisp for Mota and Marte, it sounds like a reasonable deal to this Red Sox fan. Marte is a bigger prospect than Crisp was, but Crisp has a 102 OPS+ in 1784 major league PAs before age 26, with the ability to accel at CF, which I'll take over all but the most spectacular minor league records. Mota is good, but he also costs $$$; I don't think he'd be a significant loss.

Posted by: Jason at January 22, 2006 11:33 AM

Uh...losing offense? Crisp out performed Damon offensively last year. Considering he had a HUGE number of doubles and will now be playing his home games at Fenway, his production should go up.

Posted by: Mike at January 22, 2006 11:34 AM

Yeah, have to agree with Mike. The Sox aren't losing offense in CF if this trade goes through...

Posted by: Jason at January 22, 2006 11:45 AM

Where is the evidence that Crisp would be a strong defensive CF? I know his defense is well-respected in left, but that doesn't mean he can handle center as a plus defender, especially in a tough CF like Fenway.

I like Crisp, but it's frustrating to give up Marte so soon after getting him. And if it is so easy for the Indians to get somebody like Michaels, why didn't the Sox just do that?

Posted by: David Dean at January 22, 2006 12:16 PM

I don't see where Crisp out-performed Damon last year. Damon's OBA was 20 points higher. Crisp had a little more power, but he's not a power hitter. And while he had a great season away from Cleveland last year, for his career he's only a bit better away from home.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 22, 2006 12:17 PM

Mota was a throw-in in the Beckett deal, so I have no problem with getting rid of him. It seems they were planning to deal him anyway, which is why they signed Tavarez.

As for Marte, I'd have loved to have him come up and play third this season or next, but realistically, the Sox are on the hook for two years of Lowell, and they've got Youkilis at third as well. Marte was unfortunately expendable.

Crisp is an interesting player. There are different reports about him depending on where you go (BP vs. Hardball Times. ect.). If he keeps improving upon last year then he'll be an all-star. If he regresses he'll be a mediocre player. In either case he is two things that Damon was not: young and cheap. It will be interesting to compare Crisp with Damon over the next four years. I bet it'll be pretty close, with the edge to Damon next year and the Crisp by the end.

Also, and don't underestimate this, his last name is Crisp. You gotta love that.

Posted by: mattymatty at January 22, 2006 12:22 PM

I have no real problem with the Marte/Crisp deal for the Sox. It is trading potential for certainty. Crisp is certainly not 1 month of Larry Anderson. The deal could be a win-win. It was not my favorite rumored deal, but it is also not the worst either.

My real problem with these rumors is the Gonzalez signing. To an amazing degree, Cora = Gonzalez. On batting, which is prone to much more accurate analysis at this point, both have a career .238 EqA.

On defense, BP has Cora with a better career and much better recent rate2 at SS. At the very least, Cora is comparable to Gonzalez defensively. So why would you want to pay money and give up a draft pick (did the Marlins offer arb?) to get what you already have. And to further block the player (Pedroia) who is clearly the best choice in the very near term, if not immediately.

Posted by: Craig A. Damon at January 22, 2006 12:29 PM

Crisp and Damon were (according to WARP) the exact same value last year. They were both 46 BRAR and 26 BRAA with 17 FRAR to equal 6.9 WARP. The difference is Crisp was playing LF and will now move to CF where he has played 188 Games of below average fielding. However, Crisp is 6 years younger which gives him a much better probability of improving than Damon. Crisp took a very nice leap forward last year offensively and I would choose Crisp over Damon if I had to pick them straight up (even before considering the salary difference). Mota seems to be nothing more than a replaceable throw-in at this point. Hate to lose Marte :(

Posted by: Tim at January 22, 2006 12:36 PM

Funny how all the Sox fans who raved about how great Damon was in the clubhouse and what a key personality he was to the Red Sox now totally gloss over that fact now that he's gone. To them, Damon is now nothing but an average CF both offensively and defensively.

Keep in mind that Crisp played CF with a Rate2 or 94 over his career (188 games). If Crisp plays Fenway at a clip of 94, it won't be long before Sox fans are calling for his head. (Note that Damon played CF with a Rate2 of 97 last season - his first sub-100 Rate2 season in six years, and is at 101 for his career).

Posted by: sabernar at January 22, 2006 12:44 PM

Whether Crisp becomes a Red Sox or not, he ,unless he has a total collapse, should outperform Damon on the O-side and would be a wash on the d-side as Johhny D is on the downside of his career(his range numbers show that).

Posted by: TOC1918 at January 22, 2006 01:04 PM

I don't see where Crisp out-performed Damon last year.

I know you're responding to someone else, but I'll add my 2c...

I wouldn't say that Crisp out-performed Damon, but I wouldn't say the reverse either. Their '05 #'s (not to mention their numbers through age 25) look similar. Damon had a .805 OPS and 113 OPS+ in '05. Crisp had a .810 OPS and 119 OPS+ in '05. Crisp even hit much better away (.888 OPS) than Damon hit away (.780 OPS), so it's unlikely that the '05 #'s are inflated by Jacob's Field...

One thing worth noting is that Damon's OBA was quite mediocre through his first 4 years of major league ball...

Posted by: Jason at January 22, 2006 02:29 PM

My preferred one number comparison is BP EqA, because it does a better job of adjusting for context than most.

Damon 05 EqA 293
Crisp 05 EqA 293

Looks pretty even last year.

Given that Damon is on the downslide and Crisp is on the upside, I call this one a win for the Sox.

On a related note, did anyone else notice Damon in the excellent piece about BABIP and luck. He is among the likely to drop in BA, before park factor changes come into play. I predict a 260/320/425 line, which will have the media screaming that he can't handle NY. It will get so ugly with the media/fans that he will be dumped after 06, having to give up Wang to get someone to take part of his salary.

The Yankees will then sign Andruw Jones to a FA contract that they will almost immediately regret.

Posted by: Craig A. Damon at January 22, 2006 07:39 PM

"I predict a 260/320/425 line, which will have the media screaming that he can't handle NY. It will get so ugly with the media/fans that he will be dumped after 06, having to give up Wang to get someone to take part of his salary."

And I predict you will be wrong. And no one will remember you made this prediction.

Posted by: Nick at January 22, 2006 08:42 PM

Michaels- Crisp, What is the difference in games won??? Why give up Marte and Mota, when Mota brings Michaels??? Is Arthur Rhodes that much of a difference???

Posted by: TOC1918 at January 22, 2006 09:37 PM

'Red Sox fans who were so excited about getting Andy Marte won't get to see him play'

Both of them will be crushed.

Posted by: ICallMasICM at January 23, 2006 09:30 AM
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