Baseball Musings: Arroyo for Pena

March 20, 2006

Arroyo for Pena

After a good outing yesterday by Bronson Arroyo, the Reds traded for the pitcher, sending Willy Mo Pena to the Red Sox and getting some cash to boot.

Where to begin with this trade. The Red Sox are getting a player whose stats are highly inflated by his home park. He's been a passable player at Great American Ballpark. On the road, all he has going for him is power. He is young, however, so there is upside potential.

For all Arroyo's potential, he's a pitcher with a 4.00+ ERA. His falloff in strikeouts in 2005 had to worry the Red Sox. He threw more innings and struck out fewer batters compared to 2004. Batters put the ball in play against him. With the Reds poor defense, that's going to make Bronson's ERA go higher. He does a good job keeping the ball in the park, however, especially away from Fenway.

The Reds staff is so bad, Arroyo probably helps them. The Red Sox obviously believe their rotation is very well set, and picked up another hitter with potential. If their outfielders get injured or underperform, they now have Juan Gonzalez and Willy Mo Pena waiting in the wings. I don't see the trade improving the Red Sox in the short term, but it does provide insurance.

Update: Until someone reminded me in the comments, I had forgotten about Arroyo's recent contract. The home town discount didn't prevent the trade. Sometimes it's a good idea to listen to your agent.

Update: There's a discussion of the trade from the Reds point of view over at Redleg Nation.

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Posted by David Pinto at 11:21 AM | Trades | TrackBack (0)

Comments

guess arroyo's agent was right to tell him not to sign that contract because the probability that he was gonna get screwed BIG time for signing such a lowball multi year contract was so high.

arroyo should have insisted on a no trade to go along with the hometown discount to prevent exactly this. poor guy. dumb to trust management to keep their word without the word being written.

pena isn't a very good fielder, and we won't walk, but he can hit HRs - i guess they gotta platoon him with nixon

Posted by: lisa gray at March 20, 2006 11:40 AM

And take a look at Pena's defensive stats. He's one of the worst fielding OF, much less CF, in all of baseball.

Posted by: sabernar at March 20, 2006 11:41 AM

Sabernar: Pena won't be playing centerfield for the Sox. He's signed to spell Nixon in right. According to scouts, Nixon has looked awful in right field this spring.

As for Arroyo's deal, Lisa's right. He was a fool to sign that deal and not expect a trade. We all saw that coming from a mile away, if I recall the discussion of the signing correctly.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at March 20, 2006 11:53 AM

I'm hoping this indicates Clemens... and doesn't send Trot anywhere.

Posted by: Nat at March 20, 2006 11:56 AM

Nat: Nothing indicates Clemens. He's not making up his mind until June or July. Don't get your hopes up though. He'll be back with Houston if he unretires again.

As for Trot, he's done in Boston after this year, but he won't be traded now. No one's going to take an underacheiving, oft-injured lefty who can't hit right-handed pitching and and makes nearly $8 million a season.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at March 20, 2006 12:17 PM

I suppose that this is a decent trade, and the concerns about Arroyo are certainly valid, but I'm really disappointed. I LIKED the guy, and he helped the team by taking that 'low' contract. I met him a couple of months ago, and he signed about 6 balls and some photos for my wife and I and talked with fans for hours at the bar. Shoot. Hate to see ya go, Bronson.

Posted by: Steve M at March 20, 2006 12:35 PM

This move and the Gonzalez signing makes me wonder if there's something wrong with Trot. Either he's hurt, looking old, or both. Or is it just coincidence that these two moves happen within 24 hours of each other? I haven't seen him and his .323 with 4 extra base hits out of 10 total look good. Hmmm.

Arroyo was expendable. He did eat 200 innings last season without causing damage. But he won't be missed if everyone pitches to near potential. I think the league firgured Arroyo out last season.

Posted by: Joe in Philly at March 20, 2006 01:15 PM

Arroyo, being in the middle of a multi-year deal, can demand a trade at the end of the year. At least that's something.

Posted by: sabernar at March 20, 2006 01:37 PM

I will miss Arroyo, but his declining peripherals were certainly cause for concern. We should remember that Arroyo was claimed off waivers in 2003 and gave the Sox 2+ years of league-average innings. That the Sox could turn that into a 24 year old outfielder with other-worldly power potential is pretty sweet.

I feel badly that he was shipped out of town right after signing a long-term deal (and that the deal made him more tradeable). He should have listened to his agent, but it's also worth remembering that he was wasting away in the minors at the age of 26 or 27, and now has a 10-figure guaranteed contract and minor celebrity. Not too shabby for a guy who can't really get lefties out.

Posted by: David Dean at March 20, 2006 01:54 PM

The Reds continue to confuse me. They trade Casey two years too late to finally move Dunn to 1b, and leave the OF to Pena, Griffey, and, presumably Kearns. Now they trade Pena a year after his peak value for another pitcher ill-suited to their ballpark. So they go from a glut of outfielders to too few.

Posted by: Daniel at March 20, 2006 02:30 PM

I too can't quite fathom needing both JuanGon and WilyMo, unless Nixon is really sagging.

And both are roll-the-dice pickups... Theo is just hoping that one of them turns out to be a very pleasant surprise. I don't have too high hopes for either, but the Sox might catch a break.

These moves remind me of how Cashman acquires extra pitchers: Pick up a bunch of longshots for cheap, and hope one of them pans out.

Posted by: Hudson at March 20, 2006 03:28 PM

Yeah, wow...I remember the string from last year, where everyone talked about Arroyo asking to be traded by giving the hometown discount. I had hoped that the Sox wouldn't do it to him, but hey, what can you do?

Seems like a nice guy...and when he's on, he's a lot of fun to watch. His slider is filthy when it's working.

Posted by: Dave S. at March 20, 2006 04:20 PM

David, I'm curious, can you clarify why you think Pena's stats are inflated by GAB? What aspect of GAB inflates his stats? As you noted, he doesn't lose any power when he moves to other parks. Why would GAB inflate his batting average but not home runs? Are you confident that it's GAB and not simple home field familiarity & comfort? Seems that many players exhibit better performance at home than away...

I'm sad to see Arroyo go, but I can't complain too loudly about getting a 100 OPS+ 24 yo player in return...

Posted by: Jason at March 20, 2006 06:28 PM

i hate to be "stupid-trade-guy" but i definately think something else is coming. the redsox wouldn't make such a longterm trade.

i'm thinking clement/pena to philly for abreau. the money is close (about 2 mil this year 3 mil next year) and if they trade nixon for a bullpen arm they wind up saving money (even if they eat money in the deal), upgrade in right, and maintaining what arroyo was going to give them this year (theoretically).

i realize this is basically arroyo/clement for abreau. if they wanted to do that philly probably would have done it in the summer, but i really don't think this is a move the sox want to take into july and august and i'm throwing this out there as a trade that makes sense for both teams.

Posted by: Tim at March 21, 2006 12:41 AM

Benjamin - you're right, but I'm trying to placate my mixed emotions here. I'm a big time Nixon fan, and this clearly spells the end for him.

Posted by: Nat at March 21, 2006 08:10 AM

I think this trade neither spells the end of Nixon's time with the team (for this year), nor says anything about a potential Clemens signing. Simply put, Nixon cannot hit lefties (.223/.313/.334 career), and his 'all-out' style of play makes him a good candidate for a couple dl stints every year. The sox needed a platoon partner, and Wily Mo kills lefties (.303/.372/.602 over the last two years). Plus, they had 7 starters--they must have figured that Arroyo's value in getting a viable platoon for Nixon was more than his value as a long-relief guy. I tend to agree with that.

Posted by: gooblar at March 21, 2006 10:09 AM

Short-term, Pena is a RF platoon with Nixon. Long-term, he's a possible replacement for Nixon or Manny. I'm sure the Sox are hoping he develops plate discipline and follows in the foot-steps of Big Papi. Ortiz's stats were nothing special until he moved to Boston...

Posted by: Jason at March 21, 2006 01:52 PM

DirtDogs is reporting that JuanGone is headed to Oakland, but the article he links to is in Spanish so I can't give details.

Posted by: Hudson at March 22, 2006 10:42 AM

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