July 31, 2004
Dodger Deal
When I first heard of the Dodger-Marlins deal, my thought was great deal for the Dodgers. I based that on
- The Dodgers get a good, young player for a good old player.
- A starter being somewhat more valuable than a set-up man.
- The Dodgers getting rid of a poor offensive player.
I watched the Tivo'd Baseball Tonight this morning, and Brantley was very negative about this trade for LA. He believes it has weakened them. I just don't see it. Even if they don't go on to get Randy Johnson, they've made themselves a better ballclub.
The biggest hole the Dodgers have offensively is right field. This trade gets rid of the reason for that hole, Juan Encarnacion and his .289 OBA. I assume Green will move to right, and Choi will take over at first. While Green has been an offensive liability at first, he'll provide more offense in right than Juan. And Choi has slightly more win shares than LoDuca. So, at worse, the Dodgers are about even in the trade offensively.
Penny and Mota each have 8 win shares. Win or without Mota, the Dodgers have a great bullpen. DePodesta traded a strength for a weakness. And the stronger your starting staff, the less you need your bullpen, and the better they'll look.
Robert Tagorda, in his excellent analysis of the deal, notes that the Dodgers are also saving a nice piece of change. And they'll save even more as Choi is still a while away from the big money, while to keep LoDuca (age 32) you'd have to shell out the big bucks.
I like the trade for the Marlins, also. With Mota and Benitez, they can turn contests into seven inning games. Lo Duca is a great hitter, and Encarnacion gives them depth off the bench. What I also like is that it shows the Florida fans that the Marlins want to win again, something they did not do after 1997. We'll see which of these deals worked best some October.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:11 AM
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DePo's got nerve; if this one doesn't work, even that powder puff press of L.A. will eat him alive.
Personally, I think messing with the spin of fortuna rota, as good as L.A. has been playing, is a mistake. To me, losing Deluca would be like the Yanks losing Posada.
LoDuca...gawd, dyslexia!
I feel the same way about my A's trading their catcher away last year even as good as Miller has been. It has especially hurt Zito, Bradford, and Ricon.
The mainstream media are not going to like this trade for the Dodgers simply because they don't realize the value of Choi. He's cheap, he has a shot to put up a .400/.500 OBP/SLG year, and he's only 25 years old. He's going to be a solid (at least) player for a long time. The irony is that now that he's in Dodger Stadium, he'll continue to be underrated.
I guess this is one of those trades that can be used as an experiment to see if intangibles like chemistry really matter. On paper, I'd say it looks fairly even. But man, talking about ripping out the heart of the Dodgers. This strikes me as the sort of deal a 3rd-place team 4 games out would make to try to make a run at the top spot or the wild-card. Now we've taken something that was working (finally, the Dodger offense) and really stirred it up. Getting Charles Johnson as their catcher is only going to make the parallels to the Piazza trade even more obvious, and if they don't get him, they'd better hope that Koyie Hill can fill in LoDuca's shoes.
If this works, of course, DePodesta looks like a genius. But otherwise he gets ripped to shreds. The callers on sports talk radio here in L.A. have been running about 9 to 1 against this trade, and people are angry. It still feels like a punch in the gut to me--- even if the Dodgers do win, a part of me will feel like it's not really the same team without LoDuca.
On the other hand, if we manage to get Randy Johnson out of the deal, I'll feel a lot better about it.
Adam
Will Choi be able to hit in Dodger Stadium? I might agree with the .400 OBP, but slugging .500? Seems unlikely.
Pro Player isn't exactly a hitter's paradise. He seemed to do OK there.
One positive with Choi is that we've got another bankable Korean in a city with a big Korean populace... I wonder how much of a difference at the turnstile that can make.
The Dodgers now have a strong outfield, a strong infield, a good bench, a stronger starting rotation, a couple of holes in an otherwise good bullpen, and a big offensive black hole at catcher.
I gotta tell you though, every time I see Paul LoDuca, Dave Roberts, or Guillermo Mota, I'll think of them as Dodgers.
David Ross is a capable offensive player. Hardly a "black hole," he could give LoDuca's sub-.800 OPS a run for the money.